Sunday, August 30, 2015
A three-game showdown against the Braves’ inexperienced pitching staff seemed to get the Yankees’ bats back on track. The contributions up and down the batting order were so widespread, evenStephen Drew’s batting average bubbled above the Mendoza line.
Drew and Chase Headley combined to go 7-for-7 with two homers, six runs, eight RBIs and four walks on Sunday, while Jacoby Ellsbury slugged a three-run homer in a 20-6 rout at Turner Field that saw the Yankees plate nine runs in the seventh inning. New York outscored Atlanta, 38-11, in the series.
“We’ve talked about how we hit that skid there for a little bit, but over the course of the year, everybody will go through that,” said Drew, whose four-hit performance boosted his season average to .201. “Hopefully that’s the last of that. It’s good for the offense to be able to come in and everybody be able to contribute that.”
Wow, .201! Never stop dreaming, kids!
The offensive explosion was awesome to see, but Nathan Eovaldi pitching terribly was less awesome.
The Red Sox are next! Let’s go, Yankees!
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.277/.339/.375), 1.8 bWAR
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.271/.358/.418), 3.6 bWAR
3. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.278/.341/.479), 0.7 bWAR
4. Brian McCann (L) C: (.247/.321/.478), 2.7 bWAR
5. Greg Bird (L) 1B: (.234/.321/.383), 0.0 bWAR
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.273/.332/.392), 1.0 bWAR
7. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.260/.306/.357), 2.1 bWAR
8. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.192/.262/.369), 0.2 bWAR
9. Nathan Eovaldi (R) P: (.000/.000/.000), 0.0 bWAR
Total Lineup bWAR: 12.1
1. Nick Markakis (L) RF: (.299/.368/.376), 1.4 bWAR
2. Nick Swisher (S) LF: (.214/.284/.359), -0.4 bWAR
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 1B: (.278/.351/.483), 1.9 bWAR
4. A.J. Pierzynski (L) C: (.293/.334/.426), 1.1 bWAR
5. Adonis Garcia (R) 3B: (.254/.264/.467), -0.1 bWAR
6. Jace Peterson (L) 2B: (.241/.317/.339), 0.8 bWAR
7. Andrelton Simmons (R) SS: (.263/.330/.339), 3.2 bWAR
8. Michael Bourn (L) CF: (.228/.299/.273), 0.1 bWAR
9. Julio Teheran (R) P: (.075/.119/.075), 0.0 bWAR
Total Lineup bWAR: 8.0
Saturday, August 29, 2015
Didi Gregorius’ seventh-inning double ended Matt Wisler’s night and provided sufficient support to Luis Severino, who helped the Yankees claim a 3-1 win over the Braves on Saturday night at Turner Field.
A first-inning wild pitch accounted for the only run Wisler had surrendered until Chase Headley and Gregorius began the seventh inning with consecutive doubles. Brian McCann’s eighth-inning double off Edwin Jackson provided an insurance run for the Yankees, who remained 1 1/2 games behind the first-place Blue Jays in the American League East race.
Severino scattered four hits over six scoreless innings while making the fifth start of his career. After stranding a pair of runners in both the fourth and sixth innings, the Braves finally cracked the scoreboard when a Justin Wilson error allowed Christian Bethancourt to cross the plate in the seventh inning.
This is going to sound weird, but I almost prefer performances like this one from good young pitchers than I do to dominant ones, since dominant performances tend not to be repeatable. Performances like tonight, though, these are the jobs where you could see a pitcher routinely doing something like this. Severino wasn’t totally sharp, but he was just good enough to easily breeze through six innings. He did the things pitchers should do. He annihilated the bad hitters in the lineup and he did okay against the good hitters. What a boon he has been. I think he might be the best Yankees starter right now. Either him, Tanaka or Eovaldi. Those three starting a playoff series with Pineda as the #4 starter would be pretty freakin’ sweet. Imagining adding David Price next year and having Tanaka be less than necessary to the success of the rotation?
The offense was pretty shitty, as their first run came on a bases loaded wild pitch and their second run was due to Cameron Maybin misplaying a double by Chase Headley. But Didi hit a no-doubt double to score Headley and McCann later hit a double that would have been a homer in a lot of parks. Girardi smartly pinch-ran Chris Young for Beltran as no way Beltran scores on that McCann double. It was hit too hard.
Justin Wilson struggled but he didn’t pitch as poorly as it seemed. The run scored on a bad play by Didi (he went for a double play when there was no chance of a double play). Betances struggled but Andrew Miller was dominant in the ninth. He made the Brave hitters look like jokes.
In other news, CC Sabathia had his photograph taken smoking a cigar on his balcony. The photographer then tried to blackmail him, thinking that the cigar was a marijuana blunt. Yes, he honestly tried to blackmail him. Nuts. Then the photographer got $15,000 from I believe the Daily News for the photo. Un-real.
In tragic news, a fan freakin’ DIED at tonight’s game, falling from the upper deck. Blood was everywhere in the lower section where he fell. Awful. Just awful. That being said, people, pay attention when you’re by an edge like that! No one wants their last action in life to be yelling at A-Rod.
Nathan Eovaldi goes for the Yankees tomorrow as they try for a much-needed sweep, especially with the Blue Jays surprisingly missing all of the Tigers’ good pitchers this weekend. Let’s go, Yankees!
NYY: Luis Severino (#40, 21, RHP, 1-2, 2.74) vs. ATL: Matt Wisler (#37, 22, RHP, 5-4, 5.43)
Didi Gregorius hit a three-run homer and collected a career-high six RBIs, Brian McCann celebrated his return to Atlanta with a three-run shot of his own and the Yankees rolled to a 15-4 victory over the Braves on Friday night at Turner Field.
Gregorius’ seventh homer of the year highlighted New York’s eight-run pounding of right-hander Williams Perez, who lasted just 1 2/3 innings. Chase Headley also drove in three runs for the Yankees, who remain 1 1/2 games behind the Blue Jays for the American League East lead.
“We needed that,” Gregorius said. “Offensively, we’ve struggled the last couple days, but we’ve been working, and trying to get everything going. Today that’s what happened.”’
Starter Masahiro Tanaka surrendered a pair of first-inning runs but righted himself after the Yanks provided four more runs in the second, holding Atlanta to three runs and five hits over seven frames. McCann, who made his big league debut in 2005 at Turner Field, homered in the eighth inning off Andrew McKirahan.
“It was great. I’ve been saying it all day,” McCann said. “I was really excited to come back here and play in front of these fans. It meant a whole lot to me.”
This was awesome to see, but come on, who else here is thinking, “Great, that will be all the runs they score this series”? Admit it, a lot of you are thinking that!
Mark Teixeira continues to be unable to run. The Yankees insisted on Friday that there is no break and that it is “just” massive inflammation. Of course this means that the Yankees could have placed him on the 15-Day Disabled List, but, well, hindsight is 20/20!
Masahiro Tanaka looked awful early on (it took an amazing running play by Jacoby Ellsbury in center where he had to cover almost 80 feet in a matter of seconds to avoid giving up four runs in the first while still having a runner on second or third base and two outs - naturally, Ellsbury landed on his bad hip making the catch) but he settled down to pitch a decent enough game.
Luis Severino-time tomorrow. Let’s go, Yankees!
Friday, August 28, 2015
1. Nick Markakis (L) RF: (.301/.371/.379), 1.5 bWAR
2. Cameron Maybin (R) CF: (.276/.339/.395), 1.0 bWAR
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 1B: (.277/.347/.477), 1.9 bWAR
4. Nick Swisher (S) LF: (.210/.286/.362), -0.3 bWAR
5. Adonis Garcia (R) 3B: (.246/.256/.465), -0.2 bWAR
6. Jace Peterson (L) 2B: (.244/.316/.343), 0.6 bWAR
7. Christian Bethancourt (R) C: (.185/.214/.269), 0.0 bWAR
8. Andrelton Simmons (R) SS: (.263/.332/.338), 3.2 bWAR
9. Williams Perez (R) P: (.100/.143/.100), 0.0 bWAR
Total Lineup bWAR: 7.7
The Yankees’ Jersey Boy might make it to the Bronx after all.
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said former All-Star reliever Andrew Bailey, of Haddon Township, has a chance at being among the many relievers expected to be called up when rosters expand Sept. 1.
“He’s pitched himself into the discussion,” the general manager told NJ Advance Media Thursday.
Bailey, 31, had a 1.85 ERA with a 10.9 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 34 innings split between four levels of the minors entering Thursday. At Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, the right-hander had a 2.38 ERA in 11 1/3 innings.
Bailey’s had a long, hard road back to the majors.
If the over/under for innings Bailey throws for the Yankees this season is five, I’ll take the under.
And if the team doesn’t remember how to score runs, I’m not sure his return to the majors really matters all that much anyway.
Thursday, August 27, 2015
The Yankees scored at a strong clip for much of this season, yet all the pathologies that created concern about their lineup in spring lurked — like a sickness in remission.
There was, in many ways, a race — could the Yankees get to the finish line this season without being overwhelmed by their age, by their fragility, by the lack of speed/batting average that could diversify an attack if the walks and homers stopped coming?
They had a bit of a Fantasyland going there for four months.
Fountains of Youth for Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira. Some injuries, but nothing to devastate the whole attack. Enough long balls — especially at home — to whitewash how much difficulty so many of their hitters had simply reaching base.
But the season is not four months and reality is a pitch — that these days the Yankees cannot hit.
The Yankees still have the second-most runs in the majors, but are 24th in August. Collin McHugh, the Houston starter Wednesday, is a fine pitcher, but he was overpowering the Yankees with 90- to 91-mph fastballs and 88-mph cutters. The Yankees looked like they were swinging spaghetti against the force of a wind tunnel — slow and ineffective. There were innings that went 1-2-3 and felt like seconds, not hitters used.
The Yankees scored four runs in three games against the Astros. They had just two extra-base hits in the three games, accentuating that when the ball does not fly for them, they do not have another way to build runs.
That they won Monday was a tribute to the pitching of Nathan Eovaldi and that Oliver Perez, now an Astros reliever, still can butcher a game in a hurry. The victory was 1-0. The only run scored Tuesday was in the ninth inning with Houston up 15-0. In a 6-2 setback Wednesday, the Yanks were behind 5-0 when Didi Gregorius hit a two-run homer.
It was not long ago that the Yankees saw their frequency of home games as an ally down the stretch, particularly because the short right-field porch played to their offensive strengths.
But after sweeping three games from their personal piñatas, the Twins, the Yankees went 2-5 against the Indians and Astros, managing 16 runs in seven games and going 5-5 overall.
“It [the offensive downturn] is the root of our problems,” Joe Girardi said.
The Yankee offense of August was the offense I was sort of expecting all season. That they exceeded expectations for four months was great at the time, but it doesn’t make me think they’re going to all of a sudden explode in September to score the way they did earlier in the season.
They probably aren’t as bad as they’ve looked in August, but they probably aren’t as good as they looked from April though July either. But it’s hard to see this team as presently constructed beating out Toronto for the AL East. And it’s even harder to see them advancing past the ALDS even if they make it into the play-in game and advance.
But that’s why they play the games I guess.
Wednesday, August 26, 2015
NEW YORK—Collin McHugh pitched well into the seventh inning and Evan Gattis homered twice as the Astros defeated the Yankees, 6-2, on Wednesday afternoon at Yankee Stadium, taking the rubber contest of a three-game set.
McHugh took advantage of a Yankees lineup that was outscored, 21-4, in the series, limiting New York to two runs and five hits, striking out eight in 6 1/3 innings. The right-hander snapped a three-start losing streak and earned his 14th victory as the Astros notched consecutive road victories for the first time since June 17-18 at Coors Field. Houston’s won 10 of its past 14 games.
Yankees right-hander Michael Pineda permitted five runs and six hits over just 4 1/3 innings in his return from the disabled list. Gattis homered off Pineda in the second and went deep again off Adam Warren in the eighth. Houston rallied for four runs in the fifth, highlighted by run-scoring hits by Jake Marisnick and Marwin Gonzalez.
Didi Gregorius hit a two-run homer in the seventh for the Yankees, who have lost five of their past seven.
The good news is that the Yankees are guaranteed to not lose tomorrow.
1. Jose Altuve (R) 2B: (.309/.353/.422), 3.1 bWAR
2. Marwin Gonzalez (S) SS: (.266/.302/.432), 1.3 bWAR
3. Jed Lowrie (S) 3B: (.238/.342/.423), 0.8 bWAR
4. Colby Rasmus (L) RF: (.229/.302/.455), 2.1 bWAR
5. Evan Gattis (R) DH: (.241/.274/.450), -0.2 bWAR
6. Carlos Gomez (R) CF: (.245/.305/.392), 1.3 bWAR
7. Luis Valbuena (L) 1B: (.210/.292/.422), 1.5 bWAR
8. Jake Marisnick (R) LF: (.230/.265/.370), 1.3 bWAR
9. Jason Castro (L) C: (.216/.280/.388), 1.5 bWAR
Total Lineup bWAR: 12.7
1. Brett Gardner (L) CF: (.275/.363/.424), 3.9 bWAR
2. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.273/.332/.477), 0.5 bWAR
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.257/.364/.493), 2.8 bWAR
4. Brian McCann (L) C: (.248/.317/.474), 2.5 bWAR
5. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.271/.329/.386), 0.9 bWAR
6. Greg Bird (L) 1B: (.237/.275/.421), 0.0 bWAR
7. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.251/.299/.333), 1.6 bWAR
8. Chris Young (R) LF: (.247/.308/.461), 1.3 bWAR
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.198/.268/.380), 0.4 bWAR
Total Lineup bWAR: 12.7
The Yankees desperately need a good and healthy Pineda over the rest of this season if they are going to make it into the postseason and do anything once there. Will they get it? Who knows, but today will be a data point at least.
He’ll have to be good, because he isn’t going to get any help from his offense, is he?
The Astros supported Dallas Keuchel with their largest offensive showing of the season, as Evan Gattis, Marwin Gonzalez and Carlos Gomez all homered in a 15-1 drubbing of the Yankees on Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium.
Houston pounced on Ivan Nova for five runs in the first, a rally that was jump-started when Yankees center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury was unable to snag a Colby Rasmus RBI triple on a sliding attempt. Gomez, Luis Valbuena and Gonzalez also drove in runs in the frame off Nova, who lasted four-plus innings and surrendered seven runs.
While this was an embarrassing loss that knocked the Yankees out of first place (they might have to get used to that place in the division with the way that Toronto has been playing), at the end of the day, Ivan Nova could have given up two runs and that would have been enough for the Yankees to lose to Dallas Keuchel, who just OWNS them.
Oh well, at least we got to see Brendan Ryan pitch two scoreless innings (and shave off that dumb mustache - dude, when everyone else shaved off their mustaches, that was the cue for you to do it, too).
We also got to see that Brian McCann is making sure the next generation of players know how to “Play the Game the Right Way,” as backup catcher John Ryan Murphy took issue with Carlos Gomez showing up the Yankees, much as McCann himself famously got into it with Gomez.
Winning 1-0 and losing 15-1, they still end up as a 1-1 record for the series. Let’s hope that the Yankees can win tomorrow and win the series (and have a nice day off on Thursday, their first day off in weeks).
Tuesday, August 25, 2015
1. Jose Altuve (R) 2B: (.308/.352/.422), 3.1 bWAR
2. Jed Lowrie (S) 3B: (.246/.351/.437), 0.8 bWAR
3. Carlos Correa (R) SS: (.282/.347/.517), 3.0 bWAR
4. Colby Rasmus (L) RF: (.226/.299/.446), 2.0 bWAR
5. Evan Gattis (R) DH: (.238/.269/.443), -0.3 bWAR
6. Carlos Gomez (R) CF: (.244/.304/.382), 1.1 bWAR
7. Luis Valbuena (L) 1B: (.210/.293/.422), 1.5 bWAR
8. Marwin Gonzalez (S) LF: (.259/.296/.417), 1.2 bWAR
9. Jason Castro (L) C: (.209/.272/.380), 1.4 bWAR
Total Lineup bWAR: 13.8
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.275/.335/.373), 1.8 bWAR
2. Chris Young (R) LF: (.250/.309/.466), 1.0 bWAR
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.259/.366/.496), 2.8 bWAR
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.257/.359/.553), 3.9 bWAR
5. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.272/.331/.474), 0.3 bWAR
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.272/.331/.388), 0.9 bWAR
7. John Ryan Murphy (R) C: (.271/.305/.373), 0.3 bWAR
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.253/.301/.336), 1.6 bWAR
9. Brendan Ryan (R) 2B: (.237/.286/.373), 0.1 bWAR
Total Lineup bWAR: 12.7
Keuchel absolutely dominated the Yankees in his only start against them this season, firing a complete game shutout with one walk and 12 strikeouts.
I’m not expecting much different tonight.
NEW YORK — CC Sabathia doesn’t know what’s ahead, but he remembers the pain. He remembers it for how remarkable it was. He remembers it because it’s back.
Sabathia said after the Yankees’ 1-0 win over the Houston Astros at Yankee Stadium on Monday that the stabbing he feels in his right knee is “about the same as last year” when the degenerative condition in it limited him to just eight starts.
If that’s true, it doesn’t bode well for his return.
The Yankees placed Sabathia on the 15-day disabled list before Sunday’s contest, a day after he removed himself after just 2 2/3 innings of a start.
Sabathia said he’s scheduled to get a second opinion from a doctor in New York Tuesday. He’s already been examined by Yankees team physician Dr. Christopher Ahmad.
Sabathia said he doesn’t know whether he’ll pitch again this season.
“But that’s the plan,” he said. “To try to get me back out on the field. But we’ll have to see what happens.”
This doesn’t seem like something that’s going to ever go away, which makes it unlikely that Sabathia will be able to return to being an effective starter. I hate to see this happen to him, but I also didn’t particularly enjoy watching a limited Sabathia getting lit up in just about every start he made this season.
We’ll have to see what happens, but I’d be surprised to see him pitching again in 2015, and cruelly that is probably not a bad thing for the Yankees.
Monday, August 24, 2015
NEW YORK—Carlos Beltran lifted a sacrifice fly to deep center field off Chad Qualls in the bottom of the ninth inning, driving home Brett Gardner with the only run of the game as the Yankees defeated the Astros, 1-0, on Monday night at Yankee Stadium.
Nathan Eovaldi started for New York and blanked the Astros over eight innings of four-hit ball, striking out seven around three walks. The win was credited to left-hander Andrew Miller, who pitched around a leadoff hit in the ninth to complete the shutout, moving the Yankees back into a tie for first place in the American League East with the idle Blue Jays.
Somewhere in the last few months, Eovaldi morphed from a guy I couldn’t stand to watch pitch to someone I am finding myself liking more. According to this Fangraphs article, a new grip on his splitter may be part of the reason.
Whatever it is, let’s hope he can keep it up. It’s pretty cool to see your starting pitcher hitting 100 mph more than once in the 8th inning, isn’t it?
1. Jose Altuve (R) 2B: (.310/.353/.425), 3.1 bWAR
2. Marwin Gonzalez (S) LF: (.263/.301/.424), 1.3 bWAR
3. Carlos Correa (R) SS: (.278/.345/.518), 3.0 bWAR
4. Colby Rasmus (L) RF: (.228/.299/.451), 2.1 bWAR
5. Carlos Gomez (R) CF: (.246/.307/.385), 0.9 bWAR
6. Evan Gattis (R) DH: (.236/.267/.442), -0.4 bWAR
7. Luis Valbuena (L) 3B: (.209/.291/.423), 1.5 bWAR
8. Chris Carter (R) 1B: (.183/.297/.375), -0.9 bWAR
9. Hank Conger (S) C: (.223/.327/.446), 0.6 bWAR
Total Lineup bWAR: 11.2
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.279/.339/.378), 1.8 bWAR
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.278/.365/.428), 3.7 bWAR
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.261/.367/.500), 2.9 bWAR
4. Brian McCann (L) C: (.242/.310/.469), 2.0 bWAR
5. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.271/.332/.475), 0.3 bWAR
6. Greg Bird (L) 1B: (.273/.314/.485), 0.2 bWAR
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.274/.333/.391), 1.0 bWAR
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.252/.300/.336), 1.6 bWAR
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.198/.268/.383), 0.4 bWAR
Total Lineup bWAR: 13.9
At least they’re not playing Cleveland again.
Francisco Lindor homered in the eighth inning off Dellin Betances to lift the Indians to a 4-3 victory over the Yankees on Sunday at Yankee Stadium. Battling from behind, the Yanks had tied the game in the seventh. The Indians leave New York having taken three of the four-game set, and the Yankees fell a half-game behind the Blue Jays in the American League East after Toronto’s 12-5 victory over the Angels.
“He’s a good hitter,” Indians manager Terry Francona said of Lindor. “Especially against that guy, [when] lefties’ OPS was like .330 or something absurd. He has bat speed from both sides of the plate and he doesn’t stop playing. That was obviously a huge lift for us.”
Entering Sunday’s game, Betances held left-handed batters to a .342 OPS with no home runs.
“Every once in a while, it’s going to happen. We’re so used to seeing him be so good that we’re always shocked when things just don’t go boom, boom, boom,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “And today, it didn’t. He got the 3-2 count and he left the fastball up and Lindor jumped on it.”
A couple of things…
1. Brandon Pinder annoyingly walked in a run on five pitches. However, besides that, he and Nick Rumbelow were excellent bailing the Yankee out from losing CC Sabathia to an injury early in the game. The Yankees were able to not use Adam Warren or Andrew Miller today. When you lose your starter that early, not having to use all of your good relievers is a big help. Sadly, their best reliever blew the game, as Betances allowed a run for his second straight appearance. He might be tiring. Or Lindor might just be a good hitter who got a big hit. I am leaning towards the latter.
2. Toronto gave up five runs to Los Angeles today in the first inning. They then scored 11 unanswered runs to win the game. They destroyed a decent Angels team (admittedly, the Angels’ pitching is not amazing) in three straight games. Destroyed them. In other words, with Toronto playing like this, it seems hard to believe that the Yankees are going to win the division even if they play well, as Toronto looks downright unbeatable at the moment. They look like the best team in baseball. But if they were going to have any chance outpacing Toronto, they really can’t afford to lose this many games against Cleveland. Losing three out of four at HOME against Cleveland? That’s cuckoo bananas. The offense has been horrendous.
The Yankees pull three poor pitching matchups against Houston next. They could easily be three back in the loss column by their next off day. Oh well, they’re at least still in the Wild Card hunt! Oh, and Baltimore was swept by Minnesota. That was fun.
Saturday, August 22, 2015
It was a day of firsts for Luis Severino—statistically and emotionally.
On Saturday, the 21-year-old earned his first Major League win, a six-inning, one-run performance to help the Yankees beat the Indians, 6-2, on Jorge Posada Day. After two losses and a no decision, Severino officially inked his name into the win column. But the Yankees’ top prospect, according to MLB.com, gained something else on Saturday, too—a feeling.
“For the first time,” he said, “I feel like I belong here.”
Severino has made four big league starts and has pitched well in each of them, but there was something about Saturday that solidified in his mind that he’s capable of competing at the Major League level. Perhaps it was the win, perhaps it was how he got it.
First off, Severino was fantastic. FANtastic. His fastball was electric.
Secondly, the Yankees actually scored runs, which was amazing. They even added in the rare insurance run after Dellin Betances gave up his first run in over a month in the eighth.
However, the Yankees were also very fortunate today, as the umpires blew a call at second base where they gave the Yankees the force even though Didi was off the bag when he caught the throw. The umpires determined that Didi was avoiding the runner, in which case the play is now reviewable. Didi was not avoiding the runner. Greg Bird’s throw pulled him away from the bag. So the Indians should have had the bases loaded and one out in a 5-1 game. Instead, they had runners on the corners with two outs and Carlos Santana then struck out to end the inning (I was astonished that Jason Kipnis didn’t try to score when Bird threw to second).
Anyhow, the Yankees go for the split tomorrow. Let’s hope that the Angels come through tonight against Toronto.
Friday, August 21, 2015
Carlos Carrasco torched the Yankees with a dominant performance, giving up five hits and one run in 6 2/3 innings Friday as the Indians beat the Yankees, 7-3, at Yankee Stadium. Carrasco struck out 11, throwing 81 of his 108 pitches for strikes.
Carrasco’s performance laid the groundwork for the bullpen, which was able to hold off an eighth-inning rally by the Yankees, who pulled within one run by the ninth. But the Indians added three more runs in the final frame off of Justin Wilson to put the game out of reach.
Carlos Santana, who homered, and Michael Brantley each drove in two runs for the Indians.
Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka pitched six-plus innings, charged with three earned runs and seven hits to pick up his sixth loss of the season.
Simply put, with the offense in the doldrums like this, the Yankees can sort of kind of afford to have only a decent performance from their starter, but they need the bullpen to be lights out and Chasen Shreve and Justin Wilson were anything but that. Wilson had his worst outing in quite some time. That was painful to watch.
The offense scored just two earned runs. I can’t wait until they finish playing Cleveland. Cleveland just has their number for some weird reason.
1. Jason Kipnis (L) DH: (.325/.399/.472), 4.8 bWAR
2. Francisco Lindor (S) SS: (.284/.319/.388), 1.7 bWAR
3. Michael Brantley (L) LF: (.319/.391/.476), 3.1 bWAR
4. Carlos Santana (S) 1B: (.226/.352/.380), 0.4 bWAR
5. Lonnie Chisenhall (L) RF: (.249/.287/.393), 1.8 bWAR
6. Yan Gomes (R) C: (.227/.264/.377), 0.5 bWAR
7. Abraham Almonte (S) CF: (.225/.279/.373), 0.0 bWAR
8. Giovanny Urshela (R) 3B: (.230/.276/.338), 0.1 bWAR
9. Jose Ramirez (S) 2B: (.200/.273/.273), 0.2 bWAR
Total Lineup bWAR: 12.6
1. Brett Gardner (L) CF: (.277/.361/.424), 3.4 bWAR
2. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.275/.335/.396), 1.1 bWAR
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.262/.369/.504), 2.9 bWAR
4. Brian McCann (L) C: (.244/.315/.471), 2.0 bWAR
5. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.271/.334/.476), 0.6 bWAR
6. Greg Bird (L) 1B: (.286/.348/.619), 0.3 bWAR
7. Chris Young (R) LF: (.253/.312/.471), 0.1 bWAR
8. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.194/.263/.386), 0.2 bWAR
9. Brendan Ryan (R) SS: (.246/.295/.386), 0.3 bWAR
Total Lineup bWAR: 10.9
You know what would be nice? If the Yankees would stop losing to Cleveland.
Thursday, August 20, 2015
Lonnie Chisenhall, Michael Brantley and Jose Ramirez each collected run-scoring hits to back a strong start from Josh Tomlin, and the Indians escaped a ninth-inning threat to beat the Yankees, 3-2, at Yankee Stadium to open a four-game set.
Chisenhall sent a double to center field in the second to score Carlos Santana, while Brantley’s RBI single in the third drove home Jason Kipnis and Ramirez’s RBI single in the fourth scored Abraham Almonte.
Alex Rodriguez homered in the fourth inning, but by then the Indians had already picked up their trio of runs off Yankees starter Ivan Nova. The Yankees put together a rally in the ninth after Rodriguez led off with a single, stole second and then scored on a Carlos Beltran single. That made it 3-2. Yankees manager Joe Girardi was ejected with one out for arguing balls and strikes with home-plate umpire Dan Iassogna. After Greg Bird walked to put two runners on, Chase Headley grounded out. Didi Gregorius’ flyout to left field ended the game with the tying and winning runs in scoring position.
Well, that wasn’t good. It’s funny how certain things stick in your mind, because I still remember being pissed at how Josh Tomlin dominated the Yankees way back in 2010 during his Major League debut. So them losing to him tonight didn’t surprise me, despite them handling him pretty well in the times they’ve seen him since (he does have a winning record against the Yankees overall, though, 3-2).
Ivan Nova wasn’t good, but nor was he terrible. And Adam Warren and Chris Capuano pitched very well in relief. This game is on the offense. They even came up with a serious CT in the ninth inning, just to make the loss more painful. Oh well. The Twins are at least kicking the Orioles’ ass. And honestly, who here seriously thought that the Blue Jays were going to lose to the Phillies last night? So this is almost like a make-up for that game. At least that’s what I will be telling myself to cope with this.
On an semi-related tangent, the Dodgers’ payroll is now at $298 million. The Yankees is somewhere around $217 million (depends on how much they spent on various call-ups). I certainly don’t expect the Yankees to have a payroll near $300 million, but come on, Steinbrenners, you better spend some money this offseason.
1. Jason Kipnis (L) 2B: (.321/.396/.470)
2. Francisco Lindor (S) SS: (.289/.324/.395)
3. Michael Brantley (L) DH: (.317/.390/.473)
4. Carlos Santana (S) 1B: (.227/.351/.382)
5. Lonnie Chisenhall (L) RF: (.248/.286/.389)
6. Yan Gomes (R) C: (.230/.268/.383)
7. Abraham Almonte (S) CF: (.232/.280/.384)
8. Giovanny Urshela (R) 3B: (.230/.277/.340)
9. Jose Ramirez (S) LF: (—-/—-/—-)
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.276/.337/.377)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.280/.364/.428)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.259/.367/.496)
4. Brian McCann (L) C: (.247/.318/.477)
5. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.272/.335/.478)
6. Greg Bird (L) 1B: (.333/.368/.722)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.276/.336/.395)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.255/.303/.337)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.192/.257/.384)
For some reason I thought this was an off day. Joined in progress with the Yankees trailing 3-1.
NEW YORK — Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia were in Houston’s visitors bullpen in late July when Sabathia handed his old friend a baseball.
Pettitte has been one of Sabathia’s biggest supporters — and closest confidants — as the Yankees’ veteran lefty has tried to convert himself from a power pitcher to one who survives on finesse the last few seasons, much the way Pettitte did late in his career.
At Sabathia’s request, Pettitte showed him the grip for the cut fastball that kept him effective, and the pair talked about “how it feels, how it’s supposed to come out of your hand,” Sabathia told NJ Advance Media Wednesday.
Since then, Sabathia’s pitched to an ERA a run lower than it’d been before the meeting, and the 35-year-old said the cutter grip Pettitte taught him that day is a big reason why.
“It’s not an easy pitch to learn, but when you have somebody that’s kind of mastered it and you can talk to about it all the time, it makes it easier,” Sabathia said. “I’m comfortable throwing it.”
Just before Sabathia and Pettitte talked in Pettitte’s hometown, Sabathia appeared he might be at his closest to losing his spot in the Yankees’ rotation, though manager Joe Girardi and general manager Brian Cashman have each repeatedly said that’s never been discussed.
In 15 starts, Sabathia was 3-7 with a 5.65 ERA. Hitters had a .306 batting average against him.
But Sabathia showed signs of life in his next start in Anaheim on July 29, lasting lasting 7 1/3 innings while giving up four runs. After that start, Sabathia talked about meeting with Pettitte, but didn’t spill the beans.
I think the article means to reference June, not July since Sabathia started the game against Los Anaheim on June 29. I want to believe that something has clicked for Sabathia, but the underlying statistics don’t really agree.
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
xFIP: Expected fielding-independent pitching
FBv: Average fastball velocity
bb/bf: Walks per batters faced
k/bf: Strike outs per batters faced
hr/fb: home runs per fly ball (league average is around 10-11%)
gb%: ground ball percentage
fb%: fly ball percentage
ld%: line drive percentage
iffb%: infield fly ball percentage
babip: batting average against on balls in play
His velocity is up, which is good.
His walk rate is up, which is not good.
His strikeout rate is down, which is not good.
His FIP and xFIP are up. His LD% against is up. His HR/FB rate is up. Those are also not good.
How about if we go a little deeper into his numbers?
O-Swing%: The percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone.
Z-Swing%: The percentage of pitches a batter swings at inside the strike zone.
Swing%: The overall percentage of pitches a batter swings at.
O-Contact%: The percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with outside the strike zone when swinging the bat.
Z-Contact%: The percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with inside the strike zone when swinging the bat.
Contact%: The overall percentage of a batter makes contact with when swinging the bat.
Zone%: The overall percentage of pitches a batter sees inside the strike zone.
F-Strike%: The percentage of first pitch strikes.
SwStr%: The percentage of total pitches a batter swings and misses on.
These are slightly more encouraging. He’s getting more swings in general, and more swinging strikes. I assume the fact that he’s getting more contact on pitches out of the zone is actually a good thing, as it means he’s getting batters to swing at pitches that are more difficult to hit solidly, but batters are making more contact in general. I don’t think that’s really a good thing.
He’s throwing more first pitch strikes and more strikes in general, but his pitchers per batters faced are about the same (3.63 through June 23, and 3.68 since).
The jump in velocity may just mean he’s got a bit more of a margin of error to work with now. So maybe he can pitch to a 4.5 ERA going forward, which is around where his peripherals say he should be.
I’d take it.
Wednesday, August 19, 2015
It was the biggest day of Greg Bird’s six-day-old Major League career Wednesday, when he notched his first Major League homer in the third inning, only to follow it up with another two-run shot in the sixth, lifting the Yankees to a 4-3 win over the Twins.
The Yankees took a 2-0 lead when Bird homered to right field to score himself and Carlos Beltran. The Twins rallied back and took the lead in the sixth with a three-run frame that featured every Twins batter heading to the plate. Joe Mauer picked up two RBIs and Trevor Plouffe chipped in one, but the lead was already gone by the end of the inning.
Bird’s second homer of his career—and of the day—put the Yankees ahead for good, allowing them to complete the sweep. Of the Yanks’ four runs, Bird was responsible for all of them.
Oh man, John Sterling-isms are spreading like plagues! First Michael Kay said that Greg Bird was “flying around the bases” after his home run and now Yankees.com is making musical theater references in their headlines!
Anyhow, this was obviously yet another really great win for the Yankees, as they received the sort of unexpected run production that they used to get in the “good ol’ days” of the late 1990s, only here, Greg Bird might be a realistic part of the Yankees future. Awkwardly, he plays two positions where the Yankees are sort of set right now, but when a guy is hitting like this, you find a way to get his bat into the lineup.
Nathan Eovaldi started the game amazingly well, but he throws a ton of pitches and he ran into trouble in the sixth inning, putting the Yankees into a one-run hole that Greg Bird had to dig them out of. Eovaldi came into the game having thrown 39 pitches of 99 MPH or more this season and then threw forty pitches today at 99 MPH or better. So either the Yankees had a juiced radar gun today or Eovaldi was really bringing it. Eovaldi continues to have the “will to win,” as he knows how to give up just enough runs for the Yankees to score at least one more than the other team. Him and Jack Morris.
The Yankees get the Cleveland Indians next. They had a little trouble with the Tribe the other week, so hopefully they’ll do better against them at home.
1. Aaron Hicks (S) CF: (.272/.322/.416), 1.0 bWAR
2. Brian Dozier (R) 2B: (.246/.316/.489), 2.5 bWAR
3. Joe Mauer (L) DH: (.264/.331/.377), 1.0 bWAR
4. Miguel Sano (R) 3B: (.291/.398/.567), 1.3 bWAR
5. Trevor Plouffe (R) 1B: (.249/.306/.458), 2.2 bWAR
6. Eddie Rosario (L) RF: (.279/.301/.455), 1.8 bWAR
7. Eduardo Escobar (S) SS: (.246/.289/.383), 0.1 bWAR
8. Chris Herrmann (L) C: (.162/.235/.324), 0.1 bWAR
9. Shane Robinson (R) LF: (.259/.313/.340), 0.6 bWAR
Total Lineup bWAR: 10.6
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.276/.338/.379), 1.6 bWAR
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.283/.367/.432), 3.6 bWAR
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.261/.368/.500), 2.8 bWAR
4. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.271/.333/.480), 0.6 bWAR
5. Greg Bird (L) 1B: (.286/.333/.357), -0.1 bWAR
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.272/.332/.390), 0.9 bWAR
7. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.257/.306/.340), 1.6 bWAR
8. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.190/.256/.384), 0.0 bWAR
9. John Ryan Murphy (R) C: (.282/.319/.391), 0.4 bWAR
Total Lineup bWAR: 11.4
The Yankees could win today, but it’s a stone cold lead pipe cinch that Toronto will win today. So a Yankee win today would really just be delaying the inevitable ascension of the Blue Jays’ rightful spot atop the AL East. Ergo, meaningless.
Players are generally paid based on how good they are, which makes sense. Ervin Santana is earning more than four times what Nathan Eovaldi is earning this year.
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Alex Rodriguez has hit more grand slams than anyone in the history of the game, and the slugger extended that record with his 25th career grand slam on Tuesday, helping to lift the Yankees to an 8-4 victory over the Twins at Yankee Stadium.
Rodriguez’s seventh-inning shot came off reliever J.R. Graham, who inherited a bases-loaded, one-out jam from Ryan O’Rourke. Rodriguez received a curtain call from the Stadium crowd after circling the bases, celebrating his first homer in 72 at-bats and his first grand slam in nearly two years.
“I certainly have felt a lot more comfortable in those situations, especially this year,” Rodriguez said. “I’ve been through a lot, you know? I’ve been in those situations many, many times. The formula never changes. You want to get a good pitch to hit and put a good swing on it.”
Miguel Sano homered for the second consecutive game, highlighting the Twins’ output against CC Sabathia, who held Minnesota hitless into the fifth but permitted four runs over 6 2/3 innings. Nick Rumbelow picked up his first Major League victory in relief. Twins starter Mike Pelfrey worked 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball in a no-decision.
You have to give the Yankees this much. Even if this season ends poorly, they sure have given us some tremendous wins to watch. A-Rod had not hit a home run since his birthday, which was eighteen games ago. He was mired in something that seemed to be more than a slump - he just looked like all of his energy was gone. He still had a good approach at the plate, he just couldn’t DO anything. So when he came to the plate with the Yankees trailing 4-1 in the seventh and the bases loaded, I don’t think anyone could have truly imagined that he would hit a go-ahead grand slam, and yet that’s exactly what he did.
The Yankees were trailing 4-1 because, due to the bullpen being wiped out covering for Bryan Mitchell yesterday, CC Sabathia had to start the seventh, and CC pitching to MIguel Sano three times was clearly not a good idea (CC had pitched well, but come on, in a normal game with a full bullpen, you take your six innings of one run ball from CC and say, “Thank you for the six innings of one-run ball, CC” and get him the heck out of there) and it was made even clearer when Sano hit a home run to put the Twins up 3-1. After CC put two more men on base, Nick Rumbelow came in and gave up another run before getting a final out (Nick Rumbelow got the win, and it was one of the least deserving wins you can get - come in, pitch 1/3 of an inning, allow an inherited runner to score and you get a win). Things got even crazier when Justin Wilson, who was supposedly unavailable tonight, came in to pitch the 8th inning. Andrew Miller came with two outs to face Sano and he struck him out easily. The Yankees then added three insurance runs in the ninth and Miller closed the game out for his 27th save.
A-Rod still “only” went 1-5 and Mark Teixeira is not responding well to his bruised shin (although a CT scan confirmed that there was no break in the bone), so there is still some unease with those two spots in the lineup, but Carlos Beltran is swinging the bat well, Ellsbury and Gardner are showing some life, Greg Bird looks like a Major League hitter and Brian McCann is doing some good things with the bat. The Yankees go for the sweep tomorrow with Nathan Eovaldi versus Ervin Santana (who I still hate for the 2005 ALDS). Let’s go, Eo!
1. Aaron Hicks (S) CF: (.276/.327/.423)
2. Brian Dozier (R) 2B: (.248/.318/.493)
3. Joe Mauer (L) 1B: (.266/.331/.380)
4. Miguel Sano (R) DH: (.292/.401/.554)
5. Trevor Plouffe (R) 3B: (.251/.307/.461)
6. Torii Hunter (R) RF: (.238/.291/.417)
7. Eduardo Escobar (S) SS: (.238/.282/.373)
8. Kurt Suzuki (R) C: (.229/.288/.304)
9. Shane Robinson (R) LF: (.255/.306/.338)
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.274/.337/.375)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.283/.366/.434)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.262/.370/.496)
4. Brian McCann (L) C: (.249/.319/.481)
5. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.268/.331/.476)
6. Greg Bird (L) 1B: (.200/.273/.300)
7. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.257/.304/.340)
8. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.192/.258/.387)
9. Brendan Ryan (R) 3B: (.255/.293/.400)
I once knew a man who bet against FIP.
Chase Headley connected with a game-winning groundout off Glen Perkins with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 10th inning, lifting the Yankees to an 8-7 victory over the Twins on Monday evening at Yankee Stadium.
Brian McCann homered and drove in five runs for the Yankees, slugging a three-run shot in the first inning and lining a two-run single in the third off Twins starter Kyle Gibson, who lasted five innings and permitted six runs on four hits.
Carlos Beltran hit a game-tying home run in the sixth inning off Brian Duensing. Dellin Betances worked 2 1/3 innings of scoreless relief, and Andrew Miller pitched a perfect top half of the 10th before Greg Bird and McCann opened the home half with doubles, setting up the Yankees’ third walk-off victory of the season.
The Yankees expanded their lead in the American League East from a half game to a full game over the Toronto Blue Jays. But boy, was it a hard time coming. Yankee starter Bryan Mitchell suffered a horrible injury when a line drive off the bat of former Yankee Eduardo Nunez hit him in the face at 103 MPH. It broke Mitchell’s nose. The Yankees are monitoring him for concussion symptoms. I suspect that Mitchell will be headed to the disabled list, especially with the Yankee bullpen now stretched very thin. The entire bullpen was needed tonight, with the initial reliever, Caleb Cotham, not doing particularly well (giving up 4 runs in two innings). Cotham is likely heading back to the minors in favor of Nick Rumblerow. The problem is that both Rumbelow and Nick Goody pitched over an inning last night in the minors, so since Mitchell is likely going on the DL, the Yankees can bring back Brandon Pinder despite him not spending a full 10 days in the minors. So Rumbelow and Pinder will likely join the team tomorrow to help out the bullpen. The regular bullpen guys pitched decently enough, although both Chasen Shreve and Justin Wilson gave up runs. Wilson’s run put the Yankees in a 7-5 hole going into the bottom of the sixth. Luckily. Carlos Beltran continued his strong recent play with another clutch home run, tying the game at 7 with a two-run shot in the sixth.
Adam Warren, Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller dominated the Twins from that point on (Betances and Miller were electric), giving the Yankees a chance to win it in the 10th. The bottom half of the 10th opened up oddly as Greg Bird led off with a beautiful looking double off of Glen Perkins. Brian McCann followed with a long drive to deep left-center. The left fielder got a glove on it, so Bird couldn’t leave second base until it was clear that it was a hit, so with the throw coming home, McCann was able to get to second with a very rare double with a runner on second that did not drive in the runner. After a walk to Carlos Beltran, the Twins brought in a fifth infielder and their plan seemed to work as Chase Headley grounded out to shortstop, but our old friend Eduardo Nun-E couldn’t play the bad hop, so ZBrendan Rtan (pinch-running for Bird) scored easily. Interestingly enough, Nunez decided to throw to first to get the meaningless out for some reason (perhaps to avoid getting charged with an error?). This was somewhat important as it made it an RBI groundout for Headley rather than a game-ending error (with no ribbie for Headley). I suppose “somewhat” is even a stretch there, as only Headley’s RBI totals and Nunez’s error totals really care about it.
In two other pieces of bad news, Teix fouled a pitch off of his leg (just below the knee) and had to leave the game. X-Rays were negative and it is “just” a bruise, but he is likely out of the lineup for tomorrow. A-Rod, meanwhile, might as well be out of the lineup, as he looks lost at the plate right now. He can’t drive anything .Remember his return in 2012? When he couldn’t drive ANYthing? This is like that. He is still a fine hitter in terms of identifying pitches, so he still gets walks, but he can’t drive anything. It is sad to watch right now. Once Teix heals up, I would really try to give A-Rod some days off in case it is fatigue. Greg Bird looks like a legit hitter. He can DH for a little bit. This offense needs a back-on-track A-Rod. A-Rod did manage to steal a base today! And it was a big steal, as McCann then drove him in from second (and Brett Gardner from third) with a single for a brief 5-4 lead.
Former Met Mike Pelfrey goes for the Twins tomorrow. The Yankees haven’t seen him in years. CC Sabathia goes for the Yankees, who pushed him back a day in the hopes that some extra rest will do well for him. It has seemingly worked his last couple of starts, which were a marked improvement over his other recent performances, so maybe there’s something to this “extra rest” thing (then why don’t they use it for A-Rod?). Let’s go, CC!
Monday, August 17, 2015
1. Aaron Hicks (S) CF: (.279/.331/.416)
2. Brian Dozier (R) 2B: (.244/.316/.492)
3. Joe Mauer (L) 1B: (.267/.333/.382)
4. Miguel Sano (R) DH: (.280/.395/.528)
5. Trevor Plouffe (R) 3B: (.246/.303/.452)
6. Torii Hunter (R) RF: (.238/.292/.420)
7. Eddie Rosario (L) LF: (.277/.300/.456)
8. Kurt Suzuki (R) C: (.229/.286/.305)
9. Eduardo Nunez (R) SS: (.265/.297/.408)
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.269/.333/.371)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.283/.366/.436)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.265/.372/.501)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.258/.360/.556)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.244/.315/.467)
6. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.268/.330/.470)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.270/.330/.387)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.259/.307/.343)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.194/.261/.392)
Wow. I had no idea Smellsbury had ascended past the magical .700 OPS mark that denotes a $150M+ player.
Sunday, August 16, 2015
Drew Hutchison tossed a quality start backed by a three-run third from the Blue Jays’ bats in a 3-1 victory over the Yankees in the series finale at Rogers Centre on Sunday afternoon. With the win, Toronto narrowed New York’s lead in the American League East to a half-game.
Jose Bautista smacked a two-run homer off Yankees starter Luis Severino to give the home team a three-run cushion. That was was enough support for Hutchison, who lasted 6 2/3 innings while allowing an earned run on three hits to record his third victory in as many starts.
Jacoby Ellsbury hit a solo shot off Hutchison in the sixth to get the Yankees on the board, but the visitors could not generate any further offense as they saw their three-game win streak come to an end.
Severino, making his third career start, took the loss. He gave up three earned runs—all in the third—on five hits with nine strikeouts. The 21-year-old has yet to earn a big league win. Roberto Osuna came on for the ninth to close things out for the Blue Jays, recording his 13th save of the season.
Severino was hurt badly by Carlos Beltran losing a ball in the sun in the third inning that would have been the third out. Severino then gave up a single to Donaldson and then hung a slider to Jose Bautista and that was the scoring for the Blue Jays. In general, Severino looked excellent, though. Hell, even that inning he likely would have been okay had he just thrown fastballs. The Jays couldn’t touch his fastball early on. Once again, late in the game, he lost some MPH off of his change-up, making that a really effective pitch, as well. Adam Warren pitched really well in relief.
All together, through their last six games against Toronto, the Yankees have held the best offense in baseball to three runs or less in five of the six games. Here’s the problem, though. We all know who the second highest scoring offense is in baseball, right? Well, that offense is in the doldrums so far in August BIG TIME. Hutchinson pitched well, but the Yankees let him off the hook a lot. A-Rod, in particular, blew a lot of seemingly hittable pitches.
A-Rod in general has got to be a huge cause for concern. If he were a typical batter, I’d just say, “Eh, it’s a slump. Slumps happen.” But he’s 40 years old. Slumps late in the season from 40 year olds worry me a lot more because you have to wonder if he’s just tiring out. I wouldn’t mind him getting a whole series off. Let Greg Bird DH or let Carlos Beltran rest a bit by DHing in games against lefties. Beltran has been hot, so Girardi left him in in the 7th with a runner on second base and two outs rather than going with the lefty-mashing Chris Young. I probably would have done the same thing, but it was a tough call and Beltran ended the inning without getting the run in.
The Yankees came into Toronto trailing them by a half game and leading by one game in the loss column. They left LEADING them by a half game and leading them by two games in the loss column. This didn’t do that much to move the needle in the season overall, but still, it was a positive result. The Yankee pitching has been excellent recently. They’re looking like a tough team to face in the playoffs. They just need to start hitting again to actually make it TO the playoffs. By the way, don’t look now, but the Orioles are only four games back in the loss column. And unlike the Yankees, their offense has been torrid lately. The march to the playoffs is going to be very interesting. Let’s hope that they make it there!
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.265/.331/.358)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.284/.367/.438)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.267/.373/.505)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.261/.363/.561)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.243/.312/.464)
6. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.271/.333/.474)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.272/.333/.389)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.262/.309/.346)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.196/.263/.395)
1. Troy Tulowitzki (R) SS: (.287/.346/.460)
2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B: (.292/.360/.561)
3. Jose Bautista (R) RF: (.241/.357/.513)
4. Edwin Encarnacion (R) DH: (.255/.351/.482)
5. Justin Smoak (S) 1B: (.221/.292/.442)
6. Russell Martin (R) C: (.249/.329/.447)
7. Ryan Goins (L) 2B: (.220/.286/.321)
8. Kevin Pillar (R) CF: (.259/.296/.366)
9. Ben Revere (L) LF: (.290/.325/.360)
Normally, you should bet on FIP. But when you only have an 11 inning sample size to work from, you should bet on something else because FIP is meaningless.
The best thing a pitcher can do is strike hitters out. This is really difficult to disagree with.
Hutchison has struck out 110 hitters in MLB this season. Severino has struck out nine.
I guess two out of three ain’t bad.
Saturday, August 15, 2015
Masahiro Tanaka fired his first complete game of the season and Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira swatted solo shots, as the Yankees topped the Blue Jays, 4-1, at Rogers Centre on Saturday.
Beltran, who belted the decisive three-run shot in Friday’s win, wasted no time getting the Yankees on the board, as he launched a first-inning homer over the wall in right field to give the visitors an early one-run lead. Teixeira went deep in the sixth to snap a 1-1 tie, and later delivered an RBI single in the eighth to put the Yankees up by a pair. Jacoby Ellsbury’s RBI single in the ninth capped N.Y.‘s offensive effort, as the Bombers they extended their lead over the Blue Jays in the American League East to 1 1/2 games.
Besides just the awesome nature of the Yankees winning the game and extending their lead in the AL East (it sure feels nice to say that), two things stood out to me.
1. Tanaka. This was his best game since that second (second, right?) game back from his DL stint. Having him pitch this well is so important to this team going forward. It also helped give a tired bullpen some rest. I mentioned during the game thread that the Yankees tweeted out something goofy and over-the-top but still got me pumped up:
THIS. IS. MY. TIME. #Tanakatime
Having a return of Tanakatime would be sweet.
2. The offense chipped in some insurance runs. We haven’t seen that happen too often. The clutch go-ahead homer from Teix we see somewhat often, but it seems like they rarely add on runs. They did in the last game in Cleveland and that turned out to be the ballgame. It turned out that they didn’t technically need the extra two runs, but they were greatly appreciated nonetheless.
Luis Severino goes tomorrow as the Yankees seek the sweep against the weakest Toronto pitcher. The problem, of course, is that offense is still excellent, so it will quite a task for Severino to hold them down. Let’s hope he’s up to that task!
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.263/.330/.350)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.287/.371/.443)
3. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.267/.328/.459)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) DH: (.259/.360/.554)
5. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.274/.333/.392)
6. Greg Bird (L) 1B: (.000/.000/.000)
7. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.264/.312/.350)
8. John Ryan Murphy (R) C: (.283/.322/.387)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.195/.263/.396)
1. Troy Tulowitzki (R) SS: (.289/.347/.463)
2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B: (.293/.361/.564)
3. Jose Bautista (R) RF: (.241/.358/.515)
4. Edwin Encarnacion (R) DH: (.253/.350/.479)
5. Chris Colabello (R) 1B: (.324/.368/.512)
6. Dioner Navarro (S) C: (.223/.285/.339)
7. Kevin Pillar (R) CF: (.261/.299/.369)
8. Ryan Goins (L) 2B: (.222/.286/.325)
9. Ben Revere (L) LF: (.290/.325/.360)
A wise man once told me, always bet on FIP.
Friday, August 14, 2015
Pinch-hitter Carlos Beltran came through with a crucial homer as the Yankees staged a come-from-behind, 4-3 victory to snap the Blue Jays’ 11-game winning streak in the series opener at Rogers Centre on Friday. With the win, the Yankees reclaimed first place in the American League East from the Blue Jays. New York leads the division by a half-game.
Down 3-0, the Yankees rallied to drive Blue Jays starter David Price from the game with a four-run eighth inning, culminating in Beltran’s three-run shot off reliever Aaron Sanchez, who was saddled with the loss. Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann singled with one out before Chase Headley’s ground-rule double brought home one run. That set the table for Beltran’s heroics.
Ivan Nova was strong in a winning effort for the Yanks. Outside of a three-run third, the right-hander turned in a quality start with a seven-inning performance. He struck out three and walked one before turning the ball over to Dellin Betances, who pitched a scoreless eighth inning. Andrew Miller came on in the ninth and surrendered a one-out walk to Chris Colabello before Kevin Pillar singled to give the Blue Jays some life. Miller uncorked a wild pitch with Ben Revere at the plate, allowing both runners to advance into scoring position. The lefty settled in to fan Revere before striking out Troy Tulowitzki in a 12-pitch at-bat to end the game.
The Yankees scored a run in the 2nd inning in the first game of their last series against the Blue Jays. They then did not score another run that series. They did not score a run in the first seven innings of this game. So entering the 8th inning, down 3-0, I’m sure we all assumed that they would win the game, right?
Wow, what a game. Carlos Beltran looked AWFUL on the first two strikes from Sanchez, so for him to then hit that home run? Wow. Wow. Wow.
Then Andrew Miller in the ninth inning has runners on second and third with one out? He strikes out Ben Revere (only his fifth strikeout as a Blue Jay) and then, in a 12-pitch epic battle with Tulo (with Brian McCann visiting him repeatedly on the mound to calm him down and go over their approach with Tulo), gets another strikeout to win the game. Wow. Wow. Wow. Wow. Wow.
So the Yankees are back in first….for now.
Let’s go, Tanaka!
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.264/.332/.353)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.286/.371/.444)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.268/.375/.507)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.259/.361/.557)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.242/.313/.467)
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.269/.330/.384)
7. Chris Young (R) RF: (.256/.313/.477)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.262/.310/.348)
9. Brendan Ryan (R) 2B: (.255/.296/.412)
1. Troy Tulowitzki (R) SS: (.291/.349/.467)
2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B: (.293/.362/.567)
3. Jose Bautista (R) RF: (.241/.359/.516)
4. Edwin Encarnacion (R) DH: (.251/.349/.476)
5. Justin Smoak (S) 1B: (.226/.298/.451)
6. Russell Martin (R) C: (.251/.332/.453)
7. Ryan Goins (L) 2B: (.225/.289/.329)
8. Kevin Pillar (R) CF: (.261/.297/.370)
9. Ben Revere (L) LF: (.289/.323/.360)
The Yankees have had prior success against David Price, so they should win this game handily, right?
The Postseason Implications of the August 14-16, 2015 Yankees vs. Blue Jays Series
The Blue Jays have won 11 straight games and with that have put themselves into the driver’s seat for the AL East title.
W: Projected final 2015 wins
L: Projected final 2015 losses
RS: Projected final 2015 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2015 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation
A scant week later, here’s how those same postseason odds look.
There are still 10 games left between the two teams, beginning with tonight’s contest. This is how the various potential outcomes of this series affect the postseason outlook in the American League.
I really think if the Yankees get swept again this weekend their chances of winning the AL East are finished, even with seven games remaining against Toronto. The Yankees will be 62-54 trying to a catch a team that’s 67-52 and pretty clearly better than they are.
Luckily, the odds are that the Yankees should win at least one of these games.
They won’t, but they should.
Brian McCann and Stephen Drew homered as the Yankees enjoyed a respite from their recent offensive woes, snapping a five-game losing streak with an 8-6 victory over the Indians on Thursday night at Progressive Field.
The Yankees remained a half-game behind the Blue Jays for the American League East lead, knocking around Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer for six runs and seven hits over 3 1/3 innings. McCann slugged a three-run shot in the first and Drew hit a solo blast in the second off Bauer, who also gave up a pair of run-scoring doubles in the fourth.
“When you play 162 games, there’s going to be times when you struggle and you don’t hit,” McCann said. “It happened to us this past week. We have a deep lineup that can hurt you. I’ve been saying that all year long. Tonight was good to get back on track.”
Drew scored a career-high four runs as Yankees starter Nathan Eovaldi enjoyed strong run support on the way to his career-high 12th victory, permitting four runs and seven hits over 5 1/3 innings. Yan Gomes had three hits for the Indians, who saw their four-game winning streak snapped.
“It’s a good win, no doubt about it,” Yankees designated hitter Alex Rodriguez said. “We could have easily won two out of three, but we’ll take that one and hopefully take the momentum to Canada.”
As Yankee reliever Chris Martin once said, “Nobody said it was easy. No one ever said it would be this hard.”
After the Yankees took a 4-0 lead in the second on a home run by Stephen Drew (following McCann’s amazing three-run home run in the first - amazing because it came after the previous two batters popped up with runners on first and second, making it look like the Yankees were going to squander another scoring opportunity), Nathan Eovaldi suddenly looked a bit shaky. I don’t believe there is a single Yankees fan out there that wasn’t thinking that bad things were happening, Murphy’s Law style. You know, “When the Yankees don’t get hits, their pitching is great. When they hit, their pitching sucks.”
Luckily, the offense kept scoring, helping out a surprisingly shaky pitching staff tonight. Shakiest of all must be Andrew Miller, who gave up another run. Miller has been dreadful since he has returned from the Disabled List. When a guy is awesome, gets hurt, comes back and then is awful, you tend to think he’s probably still sort of hurt, no? Would the Yankees be better off just putting him back on the DL? Does anyone trust this guy with a one-run lead right now?
The Yankees now go into the lair of Grendel’s mother, AKA Rogers Centre, home of the soul-devouring Toronto Blue Jays, winners of 456 games in a row. Nova, Tanaka and Severino go for the Yankees. Come on, Yankees!
Thursday, August 13, 2015
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.260/.328/.351)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.281/.366/.438)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.271/.377/.512)
4. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.265/.327/.450)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.243/.314/.462)
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.271/.329/.387)
7. Greg Bird (L) 1B: (—-/—-/—-)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.262/.311/.349)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.190/.257/.380)
1. Jose Ramirez (S) 2B: (.213/.289/.298)
2. Francisco Lindor (S) SS: (.277/.307/.386)
3. Michael Brantley (L) LF: (.316/.392/.466)
4. Carlos Santana (S) DH: (.226/.355/.382)
5. Yan Gomes (R) C: (.227/.260/.373)
6. Abraham Almonte (S) CF: (.247/.304/.397)
7. Chris Johnson (R) 1B: (.265/.297/.355)
8. Lonnie Chisenhall (L) RF: (.230/.262/.364)
9. Giovanny Urshela (R) 3B: (.238/.273/.341)
The only thing saving this game from a ‘Whatever’ is Greg Bird’s MLB debut. Which is still going to be frustrating when he gets pinch-hit for by zBrendan Rtan in the 6th.
Help is on the way.
The Yankees reportedly will summon slugging first baseman Greg Bird, one of the organization’s top prospects, from Triple-A on Thursday as the plunging club tries to regain first place from the Blue Jays.
The Yankees have lost five straight and are on Day 3 of a stretch of 16 consecutive games. YES Network reported there is concern about the workload on 35-year-old first baseman Mark Teixeira and 40-year-old designated hitter Alex Rodriguez.
Bird could be in the starting lineup Thursday night when the Yankees face right-hander Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer.
The 22-year-old Bird, a lefty swinger with lots of power, has a line of .277/.356/.469 across Double-A and Triple-A this season, with 12 homers and 52 RBIs in 83 combined games.
Bird’s a good prospect, but I wouldn’t get too excited just yet. Here are his MLEs (major league equivalencies) over the last three seasons.
What does that all mean? If CAIRO was to project Bird, it would look like this:
The baseline is not very good, but there’s some upside here obviously.
I’m not sure how much he’s going to play, which also makes this a questionable move. But we’ll see what happens.
Wednesday, August 12, 2015
Danny Salazar struck out eight and pitched into the eighth inning as the Indians dislodged the Yankees from first place in the American League East, notching their fourth consecutive victory with a 2-1 decision on Wednesday night at Progressive Field.
Francisco Lindor and Abraham Almonte each delivered a run-scoring single to account for the offensive production against CC Sabathia, who permitted 11 baserunners over six innings of work but limited the damage against one of his former clubs.
The Yanks’ offense again remained largely dormant as they lost their fifth straight game, falling out of first place for the first time since July 1. Brian McCann hit a second-inning homer off Salazar, who allowed just four hits while walking five over 7 1/3 innings as he earned his 10th victory of the year. New York is a half-game behind the Blue Jays.
Okay, things are obviously extremely terrible right now. The Yankees have gone from 7.5 in front to 0.5 games behind Toronto (and it’s even worse than that, as they were 8.5 games up on Toronto). That’s really bad.
However, let me try a bit of a thought experiment with you all. The Yankees play Toronto this weekend. If the Yankees had won these last two games, they’d still fall out of first if Toronto swept them this weekend. In other words, their remaining TEN games against Toronto will likely tell the tale of the division. If Toronto is really as good as they have looked recently, feasting on the souls of every team that dares try to defeat them, then these last two games didn’t really matter, since Toronto will be taking care of the division in these upcoming ten games. And if the Yankees actually do well against Toronto, then these last two games also won’t matter, as the Yankees will be in good shape again. In other words, as painful as these last two losses have been following the sweep against Toronto (at home!), the bigger case for the division will be made in how they do against Toronto, in both a good sense (they can get back into things by playing well against Toronto) and a bad sense (Toronto will, in the words of Mortal Kombat, “finish them”).
In addition, another area where we can’t just ignore it because everything else sucks is that the pitching has been really, really good lately. Eovaldi and Tanaka were great against a great Toronto offense and Severino and Sabathia pitched well against Cleveland. There are some positives here. They are very much outweighed by the complete collapse of the offense (don’t rush on picking up a hitter, Cash, things are totally fine here - no rush at all), but they are still there.
1. Brett Gardner (L) CF: (.281/.365/.439)
2. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.272/.327/.389)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.273/.380/.517)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.259/.362/.561)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.243/.315/.455)
6. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.264/.325/.448)
7. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.265/.314/.353)
8. Chris Young (R) LF: (.259/.314/.482)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.192/.259/.384)
CLEVELAND — After last weekend, when simply pushing a runner across home plate seemed like such a monumental task for the Yankees, the sight of much-maligned Stephen Drew hitting a home run that ended a 31-inning scoreless streak inspired a sigh of relief Tuesday night.
It did not, however, signal any change in the Yankees’ fortunes.
Those continued on a downward spiral, as the Yankees lost to the Cleveland Indians, 5-4, in 16 innings.
Michael Brantley’s one-out single off the glove of first baseman Mark Teixeira drove in Jose Ramirez for the winning run. The hit was off Branden Pinder, the eighth Yankees pitcher, and punctuated an excruciating 5-hour-4-minute defeat.
The clubhouse was quiet enough to hear the clink of cutlery and ceramic plates as players ate their postgame meal in near silence.
WTH? Cutlery and ceramic plates? What happened to plastic flatware and paper plates?
Anyway, there’s no need to panic. The Yankees are still leading the AL East by two games in the loss column.
Panic would be silly.
Tuesday, August 11, 2015
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.267/.336/.360)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.285/.368/.446)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.275/.382/.523)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.263/.367/.570)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.245/.316/.459)
6. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.261/.323/.437)
7. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.261/.311/.348)
8. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.192/.261/.378)
9. Brendan Ryan (R) 3B: (.271/.314/.438)
1. Jose Ramirez (S) 2B: (.198/.280/.288)
2. Francisco Lindor (S) SS: (.271/.300/.385)
3. Michael Brantley (L) LF: (.313/.388/.460)
4. Carlos Santana (S) DH: (.223/.354/.383)
5. Yan Gomes (R) C: (.225/.259/.376)
6. Abraham Almonte (S) CF: (.254/.309/.429)
7. Chris Johnson (R) 1B: (.253/.287/.348)
8. Lonnie Chisenhall (L) RF: (.228/.261/.364)
9. Giovanny Urshela (R) 3B: (.251/.284/.360)
NEW YORK — Didi Gregorius was one year old. Derek Jeter hadn’t been drafted yet. Alex Rodriguez was in high school. Joe Girardi was a 26-year-old catcher for the Chicago Cubs.
And so on.
After being shutout for the second straight game Sunday—the first time that’s happened since 1999—the Yankees have now not scored in 26 straight innings, the first time, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, that that’s happened since May 1991, when all of the above things were true. (They went 32 scoreless innings in ‘91.)
The last time they did score, last Friday, was when Mark Teixeira launched a second-inning home run to left, his 30th of the year. It appeared at the time that while the Toronto Blue Jays were going to score a bunch over the weekend, so too were the Yankees.
In the last three games, New York has the fewest hits in baseball, 14, good (or bad) enough for a .151 average.
By contrast the Cleveland Indians, who the Yankees open a three-game series against Tuesday, are best in baseball at the plate since Friday, smacking 47 hits (.416 average) with four homers.
You generally have all the information you need to assess the quality of a team by what they’ve done since the prior Friday. Ergo, WOE meets BOE?
WOE is us…
Monday, August 10, 2015
First, there were no expectations for the Yankees.
Then, as the wins mounted and the lead in the division solidified, expectations grew, even though the Yankees were still the same aging team and even though their only star-caliber player was coming off a season-long drug suspension.
The Yankees had played well and hit well, and they had done so without breaking the bank for reinforcements.
Now they may have wished they did.
Toronto, buoyed by the addition of three players to an already talented roster, stormed into New York and stopped the Yankees with three suffocating performances. On Sunday, the Yankees were shut out for the second day in a row. In fact, they have not scored a run in 26 innings — not since Mark Teixeira’s home run to lead off the second inning on Friday.
The top of the batting order is not hitting. The bottom of the order is not hitting. The Yankees don’t steal bases.
The Yankees still do still have a three game lead in the loss column in the AL East (both teams have 61 wins) despite getting swept in this series with Toronto, but it feels like a question of when Toronto will overtake them rather than if.
If the Blue Jays play to their Pythagorean winning percentage of .611 over the rest of their 49 games, they will end the year at 91 wins. If the Yankees play to their Pythagorean winning percentage of .555 over the rest of the season, they will end the year at 90 wins.
It doesn’t really matter since they play 10 more times against each other, and that will be the primary factor in who takes the East. But getting swept really changed the outlook of the division pretty significantly.
But if you want to look at the bright side, the Yankees only lost this series 2.9 to 0.1 according to Pythag. So they didn’t really get swept after all.
Sunday, August 9, 2015
Congratulations to the Blue Jays on their 2015 AL East Championship.
Saturday, August 8, 2015
Tor: D. Price (10-4, 2.45 ERA) vs. NYY: I. Nova (4-3, 3.10 ERA)
Friday, August 7, 2015
1. Troy Tulowitzki (R) SS: (.301/.354/.478)
2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B: (.295/.363/.569)
3. Jose Bautista (R) RF: (.234/.358/.499)
4. Edwin Encarnacion (R) DH: (.251/.349/.478)
5. Justin Smoak (S) 1B: (.234/.314/.450)
6. Russell Martin (R) C: (.254/.336/.464)
7. Ryan Goins (L) 2B: (.233/.296/.332)
8. Kevin Pillar (R) CF: (.264/.302/.377)
9. Ben Revere (L) LF: (.295/.331/.368)
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.280/.348/.378)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.286/.369/.450)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.281/.388/.537)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.266/.371/.573)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.254/.324/.476)
6. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.259/.316/.441)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.274/.329/.394)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.256/.306/.345)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.196/.266/.386)
Drew was so close to .200, but alas it appears to have passed him by again.
I’m pretty much expecting Toronto to sweep this series, but who knows?
The Postseason Implications of the Upcoming Series with the Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are heading to the Bronx having won five straight games and eight of their last nine. After falling to 23-30 on June 2, they’ve gone 35-22, equivalent to a 99 win pace over a full season. They’ve added Troy Tulowitzki and David Price to a team that already had the best run differential and Pythagorean winning percentage in baseball.
The Yankees have the edge in the standings, but Toronto is probably the better team right now. With 13 head to head games remaining between the two teams, the 4.5 game gap can disappear very quickly.
Here’s how my Monte Carlo simulator projects the postseason in the AL as of this morning.
W: Projected final 2015 wins
L: Projected final 2015 losses
RS: Projected final 2015 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2015 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation
The Yankees don’t have to win the majority of the remaining games with Toronto to take the division. But they probably need to win at least five of them. If the two teams had no other games left this season and the Yankees went 5-8, the final standings would look like this:
Blue Jays: 67-57
I believe the Yankees have the easier schedule over the rest of the season, and have more home games as well. Toronto has played 53 games on the road (22-31) and 57 at home (36-21) compared to the Yankees who’ve played 50 at home (32-18) and 57 on the road (29-28).
Anyway, here’s how the various outcomes of this series would affect the AL’s postseason odds. Bear in mind that there is some randomness in every set of simulations which may cause difference that aren’t directly related to what’s happening between Toronto and the Yankees.
|Yankees 2-1 (Ha)|
|Yankees 3-0 (Ha ha)|
I guess the moral of this is, don’t get swept. Which should be the moral of every series anyway and which is pointless because the Yankees will get swept because they stink and because these are the pitching matchups:
R.A. Dickey (144 IP, 4.06 ERA, 4.59 FIP) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (117.1 IP, 4.30 ERA, 3.54 FIP)
David Price (154 IP, 2.45 ERA, 3.01 FIP) vs. Ivan Nova (40.2 IP, 3.10 ERA, 4.25 FIP)
Marco Estrada (111 IP, 3.40 ERA, 3.83 FIP) vs. Masahiro Tanaka (93.2 IP, 3.84 ERA, 4.07 FIP)
But if by some miracle the Yankees can win just one measly game, they make their chances to hold off the clearly superior Blue Jay juggernaut just a bit better.
Thursday, August 6, 2015
1. Rusney Castillo (R) RF: (.270/.305/.360)
2. Xander Bogaerts (R) SS: (.312/.340/.406)
3. David Ortiz (L) DH: (.244/.335/.471)
4. Hanley Ramirez (R) LF: (.260/.301/.445)
5. Mike Napoli (R) 1B: (.209/.310/.391)
6. Pablo Sandoval (L) 3B: (.262/.307/.392)
7. Ryan Hanigan (R) C: (.241/.348/.313)
8. Josh Rutledge (R) 2B: (.143/.250/.143)
9. Jackie Bradley Jr. (L) CF: (.102/.220/.163)
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.277/.345/.364)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.285/.369/.451)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.278/.384/.533)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.268/.372/.578)
5. Chris Young (R) RF: (.268/.325/.500)
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.276/.329/.397)
7. John Ryan Murphy (R) C: (.297/.336/.406)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.258/.309/.348)
9. Brendan Ryan (R) 2B: (.286/.333/.476)
CC has held the Red Sox to a line of .292/.333/.542 this year, which doesn’t seem that great until you realize that the Mets have hit .375/.400/.833 against him, the Rangers .444/.487/.694, the Phillies .348/.400/.696, the Rays .250/.296/.583 and the Orioles .306/.308/.571.
His preparations complete, Luis Severino left the bullpen and made his way across the outfield grass toward the first-base dugout. Soon, he would take the mound in a major league stadium for the first time. As he made that walk, he reflected on what the moment meant.
“I felt really happy to be here,” Severino said through an interpreter.
The way Severino pitched, with a varied repertoire, an uncompromising competitiveness and a calm-beyond-his-years demeanor, left the Yankees feeling pleased, too.
The Yankees lost, 2-1, baffled by the Boston Red Sox knuckleball pitcher Steven Wright, but it seemed a trifling inconvenience when viewed against what they stood to gain: a ballyhooed 21-year-old pitching prospect who lived up to every bit of his billing.
For a team with a brittle starting rotation and an organization that has not produced a rotation regular since Andy Pettitte nearly 20 years ago, Severino offered encouragement. Severino allowed two runs (one earned) and just two hits — one of them a home run by David Ortiz — and struck out seven in five innings.
I liked what I saw out of Severino although I found it interesting how similar in velocity his three pitches were. Here is his Brooks Baseball page for last night’s start. His fastball averaged 96.5 mph, his slider at 90.3, and his changeup at 89.5.
Yes, Severino’s changeup is faster than CC Sabathia’s “fast"ball.
Anyway, I was encouraged and look forward to seeing what Severino can do over the rest of the season.
Wednesday, August 5, 2015
1. Brock Holt (L) 2B: (.280/.355/.385)
2. Xander Bogaerts (R) SS: (.315/.343/.410)
3. David Ortiz (L) DH: (.244/.336/.465)
4. Hanley Ramirez (R) LF: (.263/.304/.450)
5. Pablo Sandoval (L) 3B: (.259/.305/.385)
6. Mike Napoli (R) 1B: (.211/.308/.393)
7. Alejandro De Aza (L) RF: (.266/.320/.438)
8. Blake Swihart (S) C: (.244/.279/.335)
9. Jackie Bradley Jr. (L) CF: (.109/.232/.174)
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.282/.351/.370)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.288/.370/.454)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.281/.388/.539)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.268/.373/.582)
5. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.258/.314/.431)
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.278/.330/.400)
7. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.258/.308/.348)
8. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.199/.268/.390)
9. John Ryan Murphy (R) C: (.286/.327/.398)
Babies don’t need a vacation, but I still see them at the beach… it pisses me off! I’ll go over to a little baby and say ‘What are you doing here? You haven’t worked a day in your life!’
NEW YORK — Michael Pineda is on ice until September. On Wednesday, the Yankees are sending rookie Luis Severino to the mound for his major league debut start. CC Sabathia is making his first start Thursday since going to the hospital for dehydration symptoms.
And beginning August 11, the Yankees play 16 games in as many days in what could be a trying two weeks for a rotation with perhaps more questions than answers as the final two months of the season begin.
“Right now we’re going to see where we are with Luis and how he adapts,” GM Brian Cashman said Thursday. “We have [Bryan Mitchell]. You’ve seen us use the six-man situation at times, which we just did in Chicago. We brought Mitchell in to give us an option for us there.”
The Yankees have used a six-man rotation to keep their starters fresh and pitching on extra rest of late, particularly Masahiro Tanaka. (Mitchell threw 78 pitches last Saturday in a spot start, taking a loss.)
Manager Joe Girardi said he’s not totally opposed to the idea of Adam Warren building back up into a starter’s role.
“Right now, probably not,” Girardi said. “But push come to shove, I’m not against it. And I would definitely think about it.”
With their offense playing surprising well and their great bullpen, rotation is the glaring weakness on this team right now. Hopefully Luis Severino can be part of the solution.
Tuesday, August 4, 2015
1. Brock Holt (L) 2B: (.284/.360/.390)
2. Xander Bogaerts (R) SS: (.319/.346/.415)
3. David Ortiz (L) DH: (.246/.337/.469)
4. Hanley Ramirez (R) LF: (.266/.307/.455)
5. Pablo Sandoval (L) 3B: (.260/.306/.378)
6. Mike Napoli (R) 1B: (.207/.306/.386)
7. Alejandro De Aza (L) RF: (.264/.319/.437)
8. Blake Swihart (S) C: (.244/.280/.338)
9. Jackie Bradley Jr. (L) CF: (.111/.226/.178)
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.283/.353/.373)
2. Chris Young (R) LF: (.260/.316/.483)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.277/.383/.535)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.266/.373/.585)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.252/.324/.465)
6. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.259/.316/.432)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.276/.329/.397)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.260/.309/.352)
9. Brendan Ryan (R) 2B: (.308/.341/.513)
Allow me to be the first to congratulate Henry Owens on garnering a victory in his MLB debut. It’s not really a question of whether or not Owens will win a Cy Young in his career, it’s a question of who will win more, he or Joe Kelly?
CHICAGO — When Dellin Betances was at the Yankees’ minor league complex in Tampa, Fla., at the end of the 2012 minor league season preparing to head to the instructional league, there were about 20 young pitching prospects working out.
Among that group, there was one who stood out to Betances — a loose-limbed 18-year-old with a confident grin named Luis Severino.
“He had a live, live arm,” Betances said. “His stuff was unbelievable.”
If Severino is good at standing out in a crowd, he will have an opportunity to do so in front of a large one Wednesday, when he is scheduled to make his major league debut against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium.
Severino’s debut is the most eagerly awaited for a Yankees pitching prospect since 2007, when Joba Chamberlain was called up to fortify the bullpen during the stretch run.
Severino, 21, has risen quickly through the system, beginning last season at Class A Charleston. For a franchise that has begun to re-emphasize developing core players instead of acquiring them, this meant resisting overtures for Severino and another prospect, outfielder Aaron Judge, before Friday’s nonwaiver trade deadline.
Here are Severino’s CAIRO forecasts for the rest of the season.
CAIRO had Severino projected at a 3.96 ERA heading into the season, so he’s improved his baseline forecast by almost 0.20 runs. His AA performance was actually not as impressive as what he’s since done at AAA.
The only other projection I have handy for Severino is Steamer, which had him projected at a 4.28 ERA heading into the year. That has also improved slightly to 4.20, which is more in line with his 35% CAIRO forecast.
Severino isn’t likely to dominate out of the box. But hopefully he can give the Yankees some quality starts and learn as he goes, and cement himself into their rotation going forward.
Monday, August 3, 2015
CHICAGO — As the baseball season advances further into August, the Yankees’ surprising ascent to the top of the American League East can be primarily traced to the turn-back-the-clock performances of Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, an offense that has scored the most first-inning runs and a bullpen that is among the most reliable in the majors.
But perhaps no player has more closely mirrored the Yankees transition from early-season floundering to midsummer flourishing than shortstop Didi Gregorius.
Gregorius, who was acquired last winter from Arizona, had the unenviable task of replacing Derek Jeter, and he did not endear himself to fans with a handful of plays early in the season that might best be described as anti-Jeteresque, beginning on opening day when he was thrown out trying to steal third with his team trailing by four runs late in the game.
As those miscues have largely disappeared, a different Gregorius has emerged — one whose athleticism has become an asset and whose bat has become a threat.
Both were on display Sunday when the Yankees concluded their 10-game trip with a 12-3 victory over the Chicago White Sox.
The Yankees won six games on the trip, which they finished with a six-game lead over Baltimore and Toronto in the American League East.
Gregorius was again in his element Sunday. He parlayed a slick backhanded scoop of Adam LaRoche’s smash up the middle into a double play in the second inning, and his bases-loaded single was the first blow in a five-run fourth inning that gave the Yankees a 6-0 lead.
In his last 11 games, Gregorius is batting .472 with nine runs and 13 R.B.I. He also hit his first career home run against a left-hander on July 27. He nearly had another on Saturday night, but White Sox right fielder Avisail Garcia reached above the fence to catch it.
CAIRO had Gregorius projected to hit .239/.310/.357 this season, and he’s now at .260/.309/.352. It’s possible he’s going to keep improving all year (OPS was at .499 at the end of April, .580 at the end of May, .610 at the end of June and .655 at the end of July). But it’s more likely he is around where he should be, even if took him a while to get there.
As for where he is now, Baseball Reference has him around 1.4 WAR, FanGraphs around 1.2. He projects to add another 0.5 WAR over the rest of the season, which puts him in range of an average overall shortstop.
That’s good enough for him to be an asset for the Yankees, even if it’s not a Hall of Fame trajectory.
Sunday, August 2, 2015
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.283/.352/.361)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.288/.370/.457)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.280/.384/.539)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.266/.374/.580)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.253/.325/.470)
6. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.261/.316/.435)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.273/.325/.393)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.257/.305/.350)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.191/.263/.375)
1. Adam Eaton (L) CF: (.268/.345/.422)
2. Tyler Saladino (R) 3B: (.256/.306/.385)
3. Jose Abreu (R) DH: (.297/.353/.501)
4. Melky Cabrera (S) LF: (.285/.325/.403)
5. Avisail Garcia (R) RF: (.264/.311/.359)
6. Adam LaRoche (L) 1B: (.217/.310/.349)
7. Alexei Ramirez (R) SS: (.237/.262/.341)
8. Carlos Sanchez (S) 2B: (.228/.260/.326)
9. Geovany Soto (R) C: (.242/.333/.468)
Saturday, August 1, 2015
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.286/.354/.366)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.291/.373/.462)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.282/.386/.544)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.269/.375/.585)
5. Chris Young (R) RF: (.266/.319/.494)
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.273/.324/.393)
7. John Ryan Murphy (R) C: (.284/.327/.389)
8. Brendan Ryan (R) 2B: (.314/.351/.543)
9. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.256/.305/.350)
1. Adam Eaton (L) CF: (.266/.342/.421)
2. Tyler Saladino (R) 3B: (.260/.313/.397)
3. Jose Abreu (R) 1B: (.296/.351/.500)
4. Melky Cabrera (S) LF: (.282/.321/.393)
5. Avisail Garcia (R) RF: (.265/.312/.360)
6. Adam LaRoche (L) DH: (.219/.311/.352)
7. Alexei Ramirez (R) SS: (.234/.260/.329)
8. Carlos Sanchez (S) 2B: (.232/.264/.332)
9. Tyler Flowers (R) C: (.217/.256/.345)
Luis Severino‘s next start will be in the majors, Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters, including Sweeny Murti of WFAN (on Twitter). Severino’s name came up in trade rumors in recent days – unsurprising given his upside – but the Bombers did not part with him.
While there were no true untouchables in the Yankees’ farm system this summer, Aaron Judge and Luis Severino came “close” to earning that label, George A. King III of the New York Post recently wrote. Heading into the season, Baseball America ranked Severino as the No. 35 prospect in the country. The right-hander got the bump up to Triple-A this season, pitching to a 1.91 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 11 starts.
Per Cashman, he will have no innings limit.
This could be fun.
Friday, July 31, 2015
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.288/.355/.369)
2. Chris Young (R) LF: (.263/.315/.491)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.278/.378/.538)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.263/.368/.562)
5. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.254/.310/.423)
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.270/.320/.392)
7. John Ryan Murphy (R) C: (.278/.316/.378)
8. Brendan Ryan (R) 2B: (.276/.323/.517)
9. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.259/.309/.353)
1. Adam Eaton (L) CF: (.263/.339/.418)
2. Tyler Saladino (R) 3B: (.265/.320/.412)
3. Jose Abreu (R) 1B: (.295/.349/.492)
4. Melky Cabrera (S) LF: (.282/.321/.393)
5. Avisail Garcia (R) RF: (.268/.316/.366)
6. Adam LaRoche (L) DH: (.210/.304/.342)
7. Alexei Ramirez (R) SS: (.233/.259/.329)
8. Geovany Soto (R) C: (.248/.336/.479)
9. Carlos Sanchez (S) 2B: (.231/.264/.329)
The Yankees and Padres spent much of the night working on a trade to send closer Craig Kimbrel from San Diego to New York, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com. The Astros, too, are in the mix for Kimbrel. Stark’s colleague, Buster Olney, tweets that he’s hearing the Yankees connected to Kimbrel as well.
Reports last night indicated that the Yankees would be willing to take on all of the $28MM that Kimbrel is guaranteed through the 2017 season. Stark hears the same but adds that the Yankees are continuing to balk at the possibility of including top prospects Luis Severino, Greg Bird and Aaron Judge in a potential swap. CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets that the Padres have sought top shortstop prospect Jorge Mateo as well but been denied to this point.
I think Kimbrel is fantastic, but he doesn’t strike me as the type of player you give up a premium prospect for when you have a glaring weakness in your starting rotation and could probably get a larger upgrade there by giving up a package comparable to the one the Padres are likely seeking for Kimbrel.
Would I give up Refsnyder and Heathcott or Williams for Kimbrel? I probably wouldn’t, but the Yankees likely would. I don’t think the Padres would take it though.
I still prefer the Yankees hold tight.
Thursday, July 30, 2015
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.289/.354/.362)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.294/.378/.467)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.278/.378/.542)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.257/.362/.541)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.250/.324/.451)
6. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.254/.308/.425)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.270/.321/.393)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.258/.307/.354)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.192/.265/.380)
1. Delino DeShields (R) CF: (.273/.367/.397)
2. Elvis Andrus (R) SS: (.248/.300/.326)
3. Prince Fielder (L) 1B: (.333/.404/.505)
4. Adrian Beltre (R) 3B: (.255/.295/.382)
5. Josh Hamilton (L) DH: (.247/.300/.419)
6. Ryan Rua (R) LF: (.197/.219/.394)
7. Shin-Soo Choo (L) RF: (.237/.316/.408)
8. Adam Rosales (R) 2B: (.225/.301/.343)
9. Robinson Chirinos (R) C: (.225/.313/.427)
The Mariners announced today that they have traded outfielder Dustin Ackley to the Yankees in exchange for outfield prospect Ramon Flores and right-hander Jose Ramirez.
Ackley, now 27 years old, came to the Mariners with a great deal of fanfare after being selected with the second overall pick in the 2009 draft. Selected one spot after Stephen Strasburg, Ackley was hailed as the best college bat in the draft on the strength of his play at UNC. Baseball America rated him as the No. 11 prospect prior to the 2010 season and No. 12 prior to the 2011 season, but Ackley’s excellent minor league play — .303/.401/.472 in 143 Triple-A games — never carried over to the Majors with any sort of consistency.
WTF? I’d rather have either of Flores or Ramirez than Ackley. At 27, he’s not likely to end up being any better than he is now, which isn’t very good, and he has played one game at 2B over the last two seasons, although I guess the Mariners signed some 2B who is monopolizing the playing time there.
I guess this frees up a valuable 40 man roster spot. So yay, roster spot.
The Yankees will place right-hander Michael Pineda on the disabled list with a Grade 1 right forearm strain, according to the New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter link). The timetable for his return remains unclear, though Sherman says the Yankees do expect Pineda to pitch again in 2015. The injury is the same as the one suffered by Andrew Miller earlier this year, Sherman adds. Miller missed about a month with his forearm strain, though the recovery process for a reliever and for a starting pitcher will probably vary, and Pineda may need more time to return to his previous per-start workload after sitting out.
An injury to Pineda further taxes a Yankees rotation that already contained some question marks. CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, Ivan Nova and Nathan Eovaldi should continue to hold down spots, and the team has used right-hander Bryan Mitchell in the rotation this season as well. There figures to be a good deal of speculation surrounding top prospect Luis Severino as well, though despite a 2.45 ERA this season, he’s already just 14 innings shy of his career-high 113 1/3. Certainly he’ll be expected to exceed that number in 2015 — the question is just to what extent he’ll be able to surpass that mark.
Hmm, can they un-DFA Chris Capuano?
Conspicuously absent from this percolating market has been the Yankees.
Whether they are lurking, or just standing on the sidelines, may not be known until the deadline passes Friday. But the decision Wednesday by the Detroit Tigers to listen to offers for the star pitcher David Price would seem to get the attention of anyone with World Series aspirations.
“Oh, I think he’s going to make a difference wherever he goes,” Yankees Manager Joe Girardi said.
Unfortunately, the Blue Jays did not remain quiet, and have acquired Price from the Tigers. Price isn’t going too make up a seven game gap on his own over what’s left in the season, but the Yankees do face Toronto in four more series (13 games) over the rest of the season, and Price may get four starts against them.
Wednesday, July 29, 2015
1. Delino DeShields (R) CF: (.272/.364/.398)
2. Rougned Odor (L) 2B: (.260/.327/.466)
3. Prince Fielder (L) DH: (.333/.403/.507)
4. Adrian Beltre (R) 3B: (.252/.293/.380)
5. Mitch Moreland (L) 1B: (.285/.334/.516)
6. Josh Hamilton (L) LF: (.236/.292/.416)
7. Elvis Andrus (R) SS: (.251/.303/.330)
8. Shin-Soo Choo (L) RF: (.231/.311/.404)
9. Robinson Chirinos (R) C: (.223/.313/.423)
The New York Yankees trailed 5-0 through one inning Tuesday evening. For many teams this season, it would be a tall order to simply come back and tie the game before it’s concluded. For the Bronx Bombers, well, they did this in the second inning:
Pretty wild game.
Tuesday, July 28, 2015
1. Delino DeShields (R) CF: (.275/.362/.402)
2. Rougned Odor (L) 2B: (.265/.332/.474)
3. Adrian Beltre (R) 3B: (.256/.296/.385)
4. Prince Fielder (L) DH: (.336/.405/.511)
5. Elvis Andrus (R) SS: (.251/.303/.331)
6. Mitch Moreland (L) 1B: (.287/.334/.520)
7. Ryan Rua (R) LF: (.194/.217/.403)
8. Shin-Soo Choo (L) RF: (.230/.309/.402)
9. Robinson Chirinos (R) C: (.225/.313/.427)
This is one of those moments when it does not matter what Brian Cashman says, which is that he is more likely not to make a trade than make one between now and Friday’s non-waiver deadline.
It does not matter that his history is generally to do deals that augment the roster at this time of year rather than scream blockbuster.
His fellow executives simply ignore the words and the deeds. They see the Yankees in first place with a strong chance to win the division. They see a power-bat, power-bullpen arm combo that could do October damage. Thus, rival executives simply do not believe this deadline is coming and going without Cashman improving his rotation.
One top AL executive said definitively what many suggested: “There is no question the Yankees are getting a pitcher.”
The Yankees definitely could use a starting pitcher. I just fear the cost of getting one.
Monday, July 27, 2015
1. Brett Gardner (L) CF: (.295/.373/.464)
2. Chris Young (R) LF: (.257/.310/.473)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.277/.375/.539)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.259/.363/.550)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.250/.326/.454)
6. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.256/.306/.420)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.263/.313/.387)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.242/.291/.325)
9. Brendan Ryan (R) 2B: (.263/.333/.421)
1. Rougned Odor (L) 2B: (.271/.339/.486)
2. Shin-Soo Choo (L) RF: (.232/.311/.407)
3. Prince Fielder (L) DH: (.337/.406/.514)
4. Mitch Moreland (L) 1B: (.285/.329/.516)
5. Adrian Beltre (R) 3B: (.259/.300/.390)
6. Josh Hamilton (L) LF: (.233/.283/.419)
7. Elvis Andrus (R) SS: (.250/.301/.328)
8. Leonys Martin (L) CF: (.218/.263/.316)
9. Robinson Chirinos (R) C: (.229/.317/.433)
CAIRO’s updated 2015 Final Projected Standings and Postseason Odds as of July 27
In the last thread, bigknowz asked:
SG, any chance you can run a simulation on final standings? Seems like the Yanks are in really good shape.
So I ran these overnight, and he’s right. The Yankees are in good shape.
W: Projected final 2015 wins
L: Projected final 2015 losses
RS: Projected final 2015 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2015 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation
These were run with a weighted average of team performance to date and their projections over the rest of the season, adjusted for major roster changes.
CAIRO still doesn’t love the Yankees. In fact, it only sees them playing about one game over .500 over the rest of the season. They still have a lot of injury risk in players that are their primary contributors. But because of where they are right now and the unimpressive competition, that is probably good enough for them to be the strong favorites in the AL East.
It’s worth noting that the average win total for the AL East leader was 91 wins.
It’s also worth noting that the only two AL teams who appear to have better postseason odds than the Yankees right now are Kansas City and the California Los Angeles Anaheim Angels.
There’s still enough time left in the season for wild swings in fortune. A bad week by the Yankees and a good week by Toronto can change things considerably, so don’t get too excited just yet. But things are looking better than they have in a couple of years.
Sunday, July 26, 2015
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.299/.370/.377)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.293/.370/.461)
3. Mark Teixeira (S) DH: (.263/.365/.557)
4. Brian McCann (L) C: (.252/.324/.457)
5. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.256/.307/.419)
6. Garrett Jones (L) 1B: (.224/.268/.381)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.260/.312/.377)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.244/.294/.328)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.186/.259/.369)
1. Brian Dozier (R) 2B: (.256/.328/.512)
2. Torii Hunter (R) RF: (.254/.308/.443)
3. Joe Mauer (L) 1B: (.277/.340/.395)
4. Miguel Sano (R) DH: (.286/.414/.518)
5. Trevor Plouffe (R) 3B: (.255/.315/.459)
6. Eddie Rosario (L) LF: (.281/.304/.416)
7. Eduardo Nunez (R) SS: (.278/.317/.452)
8. Kurt Suzuki (R) C: (.233/.293/.305)
9. Aaron Hicks (S) CF: (.263/.329/.382)
Huh, I had no idea Nun-E was hitting so well. More shockingly, he’s played 112 innings at SS and rates as average by DRS. Who’d a thunk that?
MINNEAPOLIS — If you strung together the three home runs that Alex Rodriguez hit Saturday night, they would total more than 1,300 feet — about as long a shot as the Yankees figured to have of winning Saturday night’s game.
But after the Yankees managed one hit through six innings against the left-hander Tommy Milone and endured another shaky start from C. C. Sabathia, they rallied from a five-run deficit to shock the Minnesota Twins, 8-5.
Rodriguez’s final home run, which tied the score leading off the ninth against Glen Perkins, the Twins’ All-Star closer, might have been predictable, but John Ryan Murphy’s game-winning three-run homer was not. It was his first homer this season.
“It’s maybe our best win of the year,” Manager Joe Girardi said, though a qualifier hardly seemed necessary.
I was at a wedding last night so I didn’t get to see the game. I check the score around 9 pm and saw the Yankees were trailing 5-1 and figured I wasn’t missing much. Checked again as we were leaving around midnight and was quite surprised, and I had to stay up to watch the replay.
Rodriguez has exceeded any realistic expectations by leaps and bounds, and I am happy to see it.
Saturday, July 25, 2015
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.302/.373/.382)
2. Chris Young (R) LF: (.255/.305/.468)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.271/.371/.508)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.260/.364/.554)
5. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.260/.312/.425)
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.259/.312/.378)
7. John Ryan Murphy (R) C: (.272/.307/.346)
8. Brendan Ryan (R) SS: (.294/.368/.471)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.185/.260/.371)
1. Brian Dozier (R) 2B: (.255/.325/.513)
2. Aaron Hicks (S) CF: (.259/.327/.361)
3. Trevor Plouffe (R) 1B: (.259/.319/.466)
4. Miguel Sano (R) DH: (.283/.409/.528)
5. Torii Hunter (R) RF: (.255/.308/.436)
6. Eduardo Escobar (S) 3B: (.251/.285/.396)
7. Shane Robinson (R) LF: (.246/.295/.320)
8. Kurt Suzuki (R) C: (.232/.290/.305)
9. Danny Santana (S) SS: (.221/.243/.303)
Friday, July 24, 2015
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.308/.382/.390)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.296/.374/.467)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.272/.373/.511)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.253/.360/.552)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.255/.326/.464)
6. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.264/.316/.432)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.259/.313/.379)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.241/.292/.325)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.180/.256/.369)
1. Brian Dozier (R) 2B: (.256/.326/.510)
2. Torii Hunter (R) RF: (.252/.307/.428)
3. Joe Mauer (L) 1B: (.277/.341/.394)
4. Miguel Sano (R) DH: (.286/.419/.490)
5. Trevor Plouffe (R) 3B: (.253/.315/.451)
6. Eddie Rosario (L) LF: (.272/.296/.396)
7. Aaron Hicks (S) CF: (.257/.329/.361)
8. Kurt Suzuki (R) C: (.227/.287/.302)
9. Danny Santana (S) SS: (.225/.247/.308)
n this most surprising Yankees season since … 1996? 1965? 1925? … here’s another unanticipated statement:
Now we’ll see how these guys cope with prosperity.
For this was one prosperous group that packed its bags and threw on blazers Thursday afternoon at Yankee Stadium, after dismantling the Orioles by a 9-3 score and completing a three-game sweep of the defending AL East champions. The O’s (46-48), after starting this series four games back, now stand a daunting seven games behind the Yankees (53-41), who attained another high-water mark by climbing 12 games over .500 and maintained their 5 ¹/₂–game lead — seven in the loss column — over Toronto (49-48).
The upcoming Twins series seems like one of those series that is doomed to failure before it starts.
Thursday, July 23, 2015
1. Manny Machado (R) 3B: (.298/.368/.528)
2. Jimmy Paredes (S) DH: (.293/.325/.460)
3. Adam Jones (R) CF: (.290/.331/.497)
4. Chris Davis (L) 1B: (.238/.318/.466)
5. Nolan Reimold (R) RF: (.235/.316/.412)
6. Matt Wieters (S) C: (.250/.279/.423)
7. Jonathan Schoop (R) 2B: (.269/.300/.582)
8. J.J. Hardy (R) SS: (.231/.267/.332)
9. David Lough (L) LF: (.226/.268/.349)
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.298/.377/.361)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.299/.377/.473)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.275/.375/.518)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.256/.361/.557)
5. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.264/.317/.435)
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.257/.311/.375)
7. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.234/.286/.320)
8. John Ryan Murphy (R) C: (.247/.286/.325)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.179/.256/.367)
When did Ubaldo Jimenez become good again?
The Yankees can’t find a middle infielder that can hit, their starting pitching has been mediocre and they’ve have had two-thirds of their outfield land on the disabled list.
Nevertheless, the Yankees’ stranglehold on the American League East only seems to grow stronger each day, their latest victory a 4-3 win over the Orioles in The Bronx on Wednesday night.
The Yankees entered the All-Star break by winning four out of five and have come out the same way, with eight wins in 10 games overall. They’re now 52-41, a season-high 11 games over .500.
This victory came thanks to homers from Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, who refuse to slow down, and a solid effort from Ivan Nova, still finding his way after Tommy John surgery.
I would have bet a lot of money that we’d never see a headline like that ever again.
Wednesday, July 22, 2015
1. Manny Machado (R) 3B: (.297/.366/.527)
2. Travis Snider (L) LF: (.254/.333/.368)
3. Adam Jones (R) CF: (.294/.335/.503)
4. Matt Wieters (S) DH: (.260/.290/.440)
5. Chris Davis (L) RF: (.238/.319/.460)
6. Jonathan Schoop (R) 2B: (.286/.318/.619)
7. J.J. Hardy (R) SS: (.229/.263/.330)
8. Ryan Flaherty (L) 1B: (.244/.320/.375)
9. Caleb Joseph (R) C: (.242/.315/.389)
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.299/.379/.358)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.300/.378/.476)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.275/.376/.511)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.252/.359/.545)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.256/.327/.467)
6. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.262/.313/.430)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.259/.313/.378)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.236/.288/.323)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.181/.255/.369)
Since returning from the DL, LOL-sbury is hitting .205/.244/.308.
I guess $153M doesn’t buy what it used to.
The Yankees are going to force the lefty-crushing Chris Young into the starting lineup as often as possible — as long as he continues to dominate southpaws, manager Joe Girardi said before Tuesday’s game against the Orioles at Yankee Stadium.
That decision pushed Beltran to the bench. The 38-year-old veteran is used to playing every day — he’s even made a solid, if mostly unconvincing Hall of Fame case over his 18-year career. But as the Yankees fight to keep their American League East lead, Beltran knows it’s no use attempting to battle Girardi.
“It is what it is,” Beltran said. “You have to understand you’re not young. You’re not 22 (years old) anymore.”
Girardi said that while Young — hitting .360 vs. lefties but .178 vs. righties — will keep finding his name in the lineup against left-handers, it won’t come solely at Beltran’s expense.
The Yankees will also give left fielder Brett Gardner and center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury — both lefty hitters — off days to fit in Young, Girardi said.
“I’m not saying it’s going to be a platoon,” Giradri said. “That’s not what I’m saying. As I said I’ll give Gardy a day off and Ells a day off.”
Beltran hasn’t been great against LHP, but he hasn’t been great against any pitching really. .271/.316/.441 vs. RHP compared to .239/.307/.403 vs. LHP in 2015, with an even larger disparity of .254/.331/.446 vs. RHP and .196/.242/.322 vs. LHP in 2014. When you combine that with the gap in defense between Young and Beltran, Young should start every single game against LHP.
Sounds like Girardi’s plan to accomplish that is just about perfect. Mainly sitting Beltran, with a few days off for TPASBG™ and Smellsbury. Hopefully more for the latter than the former.
Tuesday, July 21, 2015
1. Manny Machado (R) 3B: (.300/.367/.531)
2. Jimmy Paredes (S) DH: (.294/.326/.463)
3. Adam Jones (R) CF: (.291/.333/.503)
4. Chris Davis (L) RF: (.238/.320/.463)
5. Matt Wieters (S) C: (.258/.282/.443)
6. J.J. Hardy (R) SS: (.229/.263/.332)
7. Travis Snider (L) LF: (.255/.332/.370)
8. Jonathan Schoop (R) 2B: (.305/.339/.661)
9. Chris Parmelee (L) 1B: (.238/.273/.488)
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.302/.383/.357)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.300/.378/.477)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.277/.378/.515)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.249/.358/.539)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.255/.325/.468)
6. Chris Young (R) RF: (.251/.303/.470)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.256/.311/.373)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.236/.289/.324)
9. Brendan Ryan (R) 2B: (.308/.400/.462)
I had no idea Rtan was having such a good year.
Specifically, Cashman said, designating either Drew or Ryan for assignment — effectively cutting ties with the player — could have left the Yankees exposed and limited their options.
“It’s in our best interest currently to keep all assets in play,” he said. “I can send Rob down. I can always get him back. If I had designated somebody, the landscape changes. I felt like it was in our best interest.”
Cashman said Refsnyder’s promotion was never about a long-term solution. When the team added him July 11 in Boston, it wanted to give the team “the best chance to win” against the two left-handed starting pitchers the Red Sox were slated to pit against the Yankees.
Yes, cutting ties with Rtan would have left the Yankees exposed and limited their options.
Sunday, July 19, 2015
Mark Teixeira belted his 23rd home run of the season over the right-field fence for a go-ahead shot that lifted the Yankees to a 2-1 victory over the Mariners on Sunday at Yankee Stadium.
The Mariners got on the board first when Austin Jackson’s single to center field scored Jesus Montero in the fifth, but the Yankees responded in the sixth when Carlos Beltran singled to left field to bring home Brett Gardner to knot the game. The score stayed tied until the eighth when Teixeira clinched the series for the Yanks, who won Friday but lost Saturday. With the homer, Teixeira eclipsed the 22 long balls he tallied in all of 2014.
“Any time you get in that part of the order, you feel really good that anyone can pop one, and Tex had a big day,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “He was part of our two runs today, made some outstanding plays—Nelson Cruz in the eighth inning. Just a big day from Tex.”
What a victory! A big series coming up with Baltimore now after an off day.
While this was quite a win, I must throw in one minor complaint, which is that with the offense being so poor, it seems weird to make, in effect, a Refsnyder/Rtan trade.
Friday, July 17, 2015
1. Brad Miller (L) SS: (.247/.322/.413)
2. Kyle Seager (L) 3B: (.269/.329/.438)
3. Robinson Cano (L) 2B: (.251/.290/.370)
4. Nelson Cruz (R) DH: (.308/.373/.546)
5. Seth Smith (L) RF: (.268/.338/.477)
6. Austin Jackson (R) CF: (.251/.295/.355)
7. Dustin Ackley (L) LF: (.221/.280/.378)
8. Logan Morrison (L) 1B: (.229/.300/.385)
9. Mike Zunino (R) C: (.160/.223/.292)
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.318/.399/.376)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.302/.377/.484)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.278/.382/.515)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.240/.350/.526)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.259/.331/.471)
6. Chris Young (R) RF: (.248/.301/.452)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.255/.310/.373)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.238/.293/.326)
9. Rob Refsnyder (R) 2B: (.286/.286/.714)
I have a bad feeling Cano is going to get going in this series.
There are other questions pertinent to a possible trade: do the Yankees truly believe Sabathia will ever figure out how to pitch effectively with his reduced velocity? Or do they see his 5.47 ERA as an indication of what he is now?
Similarly, has a half-season of watching hitters tattoo Eovaldi’s 98-mph fastball convince them he’ll never get over the hump and become a dependable starter?
Finally, there is perhaps the most intriguing question of all: Do they think Severino, who has a 1.95 ERA after nine Triple-A starts, will be ready for the big leagues over the next several weeks?
Cashman’s history says it’s more likely he’ll make a deal for a Brandon McCarthy type as he did last year.
But if the move is not going to be for a difference-maker, perhaps the margin for error the Yankee bullpen provides would convince the GM to give Severino a shot instead.
That might be enough for this team. As long as it continues to defy the age-and-injury odds, which almost nobody thought was possible.
I’m not sure how many innings the Yankees are willing to give Severino this year, which I feel makes it very unlikely he will make significant starts down the stretch for the MLB time. But who knows?
Thursday, July 16, 2015
NEW YORK (AP) — The New York Yankees have signed former UCLA right-hander James Kaprielian, the 16th overall pick in the June draft.
Kaprielian agreed to a minor league contract Wednesday with a $2.65 million signing bonus.
I missed this yesterday.
I wonder if he can get into the rotation by August?
Johnny Cueto, Cole Hamels and Justin Upton are viewed as the holy trinity of the upcoming trade market. They currently project as the most talented players almost certain to be dealt to contenders before 4 p.m. on July 31.
Big-game hunting history will be cited as why the Yankees should not be counted out on any of the major pieces.
But if history is our guide, the Yankees only have made one trade in the past 10 Julys that involved them giving up an elite prospect — and that trade did not even get consummated. In early July 2010, the Yankees agreed to include Jesus Montero as the key piece of a three-prospect deal with Seattle for Cliff Lee. But one of the secondary cogs, David Adams, did not pass the Mariners’ physical review, the Yankees refused to include Eduardo Nunez or Ivan Nova in his place and Lee ultimately was moved to Texas.
Besides that, Brian Cashman has followed a similar script in July: 1) Think about deepening/strengthening the overall roster rather than swinging big for superstars; 2) Use the Yankees’ financial might to take on contracts that other teams want to get rid of and, in exchange, lower the prospect asking price; 3) Part with prospects from areas of perceived organizational depth.
Last July was essentially a road map. The Yankees deployed all or some combination of those principles to land Brandon McCarthy, Chase Headley, Martin Prado and Stephen Drew. But go through the last decade. It is the same process, whether the haul was Alfonso Soriano or Ichiro Suzuki or Lance Berkman or Kerry Wood or Bobby Abreu. The closest the Yankees have come to actually dealing a well-regarded prospect was in July 2008 when they obtained Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte from Pittsburgh and included in return Jose Tabata. But by then Tabata had lost some luster in the Yankees organization, getting leap-frogged as an outfield prospect by Austin Jackson.
There are really three prospects I hope the Yankees don’t consider trading. Aaron Judge, Luis Severino and Greg Bird. Anyone other that I’d be fine with depending on the return. I think Sherman is right, they’ll look for marginal upgrades that won’t cost an arm and a leg. But this year they really have their most legitimate chance at winning the division for the first time since 2012 and may decide to be a bit more aggressive in pursuing a difference-maker.
Or they could just take CC Sabathia out of the rotation and improve themselves by a couple of wins without giving up anything except money that’s already gone…
Tuesday, July 14, 2015
BOSTON — By 5 p.m. Friday, James Kaprielian and the Yankees have to have a contract signed or the first-round pick will no longer be able to negotiate with the club.
Kaprielian, the right-hander from UCLA the Yankees took with the 16th pick in June’s draft, is being advised by agent Scott Boras.
“We are negotiating. I hope we get it done,’’ amateur scouting director Damon Oppenheimer said Sunday.
Texas high school outfielder Trent Clark, taken by the Brewers with the 15th pick, signed for $2.7 million. Florida lefty Brady Aiken was taken with the 17th selection by the Indians and signed for $2.513 million.
If Kaprielian doesn’t sign with the Yankees he can return to UCLA for his senior year or go the Independent League route.
I didn’t love this draft pick anyway, but not signing him would really make it a bad one.
Monday, July 13, 2015
After an off-season with so many uncertainties — the health of the No. 1 starter Masahiro Tanaka and other important players, the infusion of young prospects into an aging lineup, the capability of the bullpen to close games — the one Girardi mentioned first on Sunday was Rodriguez.
Girardi and the Yankees’ higher-ups were not going to blindly grant Rodriguez, who had missed more than 86 percent of the Yankees’ games during the past two seasons because of an injury and a suspension, a significant role without receiving something in return for the distraction he would bring.
“In the opening day lineup,” Girardi said, “I believe he was seventh.” Girardi was right — Rodriguez, batting two spots from the bottom of the order, was 1 for 2 with a walk — but Rodriguez climbed from there.
The Yankees have used Rodriguez primarily as a designated hitter; he has started only three games in the field, twice at third base, once at first. That has helped reduce the toll on Rodriguez’s body as he nears 40.
Girardi said he was not surprised that Rodriguez’s teammates had welcomed him back, even as vitriol from opposing fans had inevitably emerged. Outside Fenway on Sunday, a street vendor was selling gray T-shirts that read “A*Rod,” a suggestion that an asterisk belonged next to his statistics, and prominently featured two crossing syringes. And inside the stadium, the fans booed him, heavily, every time he walked to the plate, rounded the bases or did pretty much anything else.
“I think he understood where he was at, what he was going to go through,” Girardi said.
The Yankees enter the All Star Break in sole possession of first place, with Rob Refsnyder finally cracking the lineup, and with a fairly healthy team, and are getting contributions from players like Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira that far exceeded expectations. Instead of the below .500 team I had them projected as heading into the year, they look significantly better than that. Given the general parity in the American League right now, barring a major stumble they should be in the thick of postseason contention for the rest of the season.
That’s not to say that they can’t stumble. It wouldn’t take much more than a handful of injuries to their front-line performers to really hurt them, but you can probably say that about every team.
At the very least, the last stretch of the season should be very interesting.
Sunday, July 12, 2015
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.327/.410/.388)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.300/.377/.486)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.279/.384/.516)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.240/.351/.530)
5. Chris Young (R) RF: (.248/.302/.451)
6. Brian McCann (L) C: (.255/.329/.454)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.251/.305/.367)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.242/.297/.331)
9. Rob Refsnyder (R) 2B: (.000/.000/.000)
1. Mookie Betts (R) CF: (.278/.330/.467)
2. Brock Holt (L) 2B: (.293/.379/.414)
3. Xander Bogaerts (R) SS: (.302/.337/.412)
4. Pablo Sandoval (S) 3B: (.266/.308/.388)
5. Hanley Ramirez (R) DH: (.272/.318/.495)
6. Alejandro De Aza (L) LF: (.315/.357/.576)
7. Shane Victorino (R) RF: (.243/.346/.314)
8. Travis Shaw (L) 1B: (.231/.286/.231)
9. Ryan Hanigan (R) C: (.233/.367/.301)
I thought these games were contractually obligated to be at 8 pm?
Saturday, July 11, 2015
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.317/.402/.360)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.301/.378/.485)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.279/.385/.509)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.243/.352/.536)
5. Chris Young (R) RF: (.243/.298/.446)
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.251/.305/.368)
7. John Ryan Murphy (R) C: (.253/.293/.333)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.241/.297/.331)
9. Rob Refsnyder (R) 2B: (—-/—-/—-)
1. Mookie Betts (R) CF: (.275/.328/.458)
2. Brock Holt (L) 2B: (.292/.377/.415)
3. Xander Bogaerts (R) SS: (.303/.338/.414)
4. David Ortiz (L) DH: (.227/.321/.430)
5. Hanley Ramirez (R) LF: (.269/.316/.484)
6. Pablo Sandoval (S) 3B: (.267/.309/.389)
7. Mike Napoli (R) 1B: (.194/.297/.357)
8. Alejandro De Aza (L) RF: (.257/.311/.461)
9. Ryan Hanigan (R) C: (.246/.384/.319)
Nova’s correction today isn’t going to be very pretty, is it?
BOSTON — The Yankees will call up second baseman Robert Refsnyder Saturday.
Manager Joe Girardi confirmed the move after the Yankees’ 5-1 win over the Red Sox at Fenway Park Friday. The YES Network’s Jack Curry first reported it.
Refsynder, 24, is the Yankees’ top prospect at a position that’s been a big weakness for the big-league club. But he comes with questions of his own.
While Refsnyder is considered by many to be a big-league hitter, his transition from the outfield to the infield has been anything but smooth. He led the Yankees with six errors in spring training. He’s committed 13 of them this season.
In May, however, Refsnyder told NJ Advance Media that he was finally starting to relax on defense and believed he was turning a corner.
Looks like Refsnyder’s getting his chance. Hopefully he runs with it.
Friday, July 10, 2015
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.321/.408/.365)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.303/.381/.490)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.276/.382/.498)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.244/.355/.542)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.258/.333/.463)
6. Garrett Jones (L) RF: (.230/.276/.397)
7. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.240/.294/.327)
8. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.181/.257/.374)
9. Cole Figueroa (L) 3B: (.500/.500/1.000)
1. Mookie Betts (R) CF: (.276/.329/.452)
2. Brock Holt (L) 2B: (.293/.379/.418)
3. Xander Bogaerts (R) SS: (.304/.340/.416)
4. David Ortiz (L) DH: (.230/.325/.436)
5. Hanley Ramirez (R) LF: (.272/.320/.491)
6. Pablo Sandoval (S) 3B: (.267/.310/.391)
7. Mike Napoli (R) 1B: (.192/.294/.358)
8. Alejandro De Aza (L) RF: (.255/.310/.463)
9. Sandy Leon (S) C: (.174/.245/.186)
FIP says Buchholz by a nose. Damn.
NEW YORK—They wanted to take more swings in the batting cage after the game, but their father had another obligation first, so they followed him into the Yankees’ clubhouse.
Brett Gardner knows that although they don’t understand now, someday his sons Hunter and Miller will grasp the magnitude of what took place before the fifth inning of the Yankees’ 6-2 win over the A’s on Thursday: their father became an All-Star for the first time in his career.
“I know I’ll always remember and cherish [this],” Brett Gardner said. “But they’ll realize a little later on how special it is.
Gardner had just finished playing catch with Jacoby Ellsbury in the outfield when he noticed that the outfield TV cameras were on him, something that he said doesn’t usually happen. He looked up to see his face on the large video board with a message on it, congratulating him for earning the nod. Gardner will replace Alex Gordon of the Royals, who strained his left groin on Wednesday and is expected to miss eight weeks.
Shocked and excited, Gardner could only acknowledge the news for a brief moment, as he still had a game to finish.
But when the postgame interviews rolled around, Gardner—who was handpicked by American League manager Ned Yost—really began to soak it all in.
“I’ll be 32 years old next month,” Gardner said. “This is my first All-Star Game. I don’t know how many more chances I’ll get at it. I can’t think of a better way to get in. He could have picked several other guys that are obviously very deserving, and for him to choose me, I’m definitely very grateful. I’ve got a big ‘Thank you’ coming for him.”
Well-deserved, and a fantastic achievement for a player not many ever thought would amount to much at the major league level.
Thursday, July 9, 2015
1. Billy Burns (S) CF: (.318/.354/.420)
2. Stephen Vogt (L) C: (.287/.375/.493)
3. Ben Zobrist (S) 2B: (.255/.344/.431)
4. Josh Reddick (L) RF: (.286/.344/.459)
5. Billy Butler (R) DH: (.250/.315/.375)
6. Ike Davis (L) 1B: (.259/.329/.406)
7. Brett Lawrie (R) 3B: (.290/.327/.430)
8. Mark Canha (R) LF: (.249/.312/.416)
9. Marcus Semien (R) SS: (.260/.307/.404)
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.322/.408/.368)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.298/.378/.478)
3. Mark Teixeira (S) DH: (.244/.356/.546)
4. Brian McCann (L) C: (.261/.335/.469)
5. Garrett Jones (L) 1B: (.238/.285/.410)
6. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.242/.294/.331)
7. Chris Young (R) RF: (.246/.296/.452)
8. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.179/.254/.375)
9. Cole Figueroa (L) 3B: (—-/—-/—-)
Did not know this was a day game, and did not know the Yankees have someone named Cole Figueroa.
NEW YORK—You could practically hear the groans in the ballpark when the announcement was made before the start of the seventh inning Wednesday: “Defensive change for the Yankees. Now playing second base, Stephen Drew.”
Up to that point, it had been a pretty good night for the New York Yankees and their fans. CC Sabathia weathered a rough start to settle down for 5 1/3 serviceable innings and left with a 3-2 lead, which had been extended to 4-2 by the second of two home runs by Mark Teixeira, the Yankees’ lone All-Star position player this year. In addition, Teixeira had flashed the kind of leather that has earned him five Gold Gloves at first base. Jacoby Ellsbury had come back from his knee injury and demonstrated that he was OK by lining out sharply to left in his first at-bat. There was comfort in knowing that closer Andrew Miller was back, too, making that one-run lead feel more secure than it really was.
The only sour note, to many Yankees fans, was the presence of Drew on the field; Drew carried into the game the lowest batting average of 164 qualifying major league players, a meager .176. Never mind that he was in there for his glove, replacing the young and erratic Jose Pirela, which in a tight game could have made all the difference.
Well, Drew wound up making all the difference, all right, but not with his glove.
The highlight reels belonged to Teixeira, who in addition to his two home runs (Nos. 21 and 22 on the season) and two RBIs (to give him an American League-leading 61) also made three sparkling plays in the field. But the night belonged to Drew.
Sometimes Teixeira reminds us that his contract should not have been the disappointment it has been.
And Drew cemented his spot on the team for the rest of the season. Yay…
Wednesday, July 8, 2015
1. Billy Burns (S) CF: (.316/.353/.420)
2. Stephen Vogt (L) 1B: (.293/.381/.502)
3. Ben Zobrist (S) 2B: (.261/.347/.440)
4. Billy Butler (R) DH: (.250/.315/.373)
5. Brett Lawrie (R) 3B: (.291/.328/.432)
6. Jake Smolinski (R) RF: (.133/.270/.200)
7. Josh Phegley (R) C: (.268/.320/.500)
8. Mark Canha (R) LF: (.242/.304/.412)
9. Marcus Semien (R) SS: (.260/.308/.397)
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.324/.412/.372)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.296/.373/.478)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.280/.387/.505)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.239/.351/.522)
5. Chris Young (R) RF: (.250/.297/.459)
6. John Ryan Murphy (R) C: (.239/.282/.324)
7. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.242/.295/.328)
8. Jose Pirela (R) 2B: (.203/.227/.297)
9. Gregorio Petit (R) 3B: (.184/.238/.263)
I thought CC was out of the rotation?
NEW YORK (AP) — The first-place New York Yankees are about to get two important players back at once.
Closer Andrew Miller and center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury are expected to come off the disabled list before Wednesday’s game against the Oakland Athletics.
Miller has been sidelined since June 10 with a strained left forearm, while Ellsbury has been out since May 20 with a sprained right knee.
Dellin Betances can probably use the help.
Tuesday, July 7, 2015
1. Billy Burns (S) CF: (.318/.356/.424)
2. Stephen Vogt (L) C: (.290/.380/.502)
3. Ben Zobrist (S) LF: (.267/.354/.450)
4. Josh Reddick (L) RF: (.288/.346/.463)
5. Billy Butler (R) DH: (.250/.316/.365)
6. Ike Davis (L) 1B: (.264/.331/.414)
7. Brett Lawrie (R) 3B: (.291/.329/.425)
8. Eric Sogard (L) 2B: (.256/.298/.293)
9. Marcus Semien (R) SS: (.260/.308/.399)
1. Brett Gardner (L) CF: (.297/.373/.481)
2. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.254/.307/.373)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.284/.390/.513)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.243/.356/.532)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.261/.332/.471)
6. Garrett Jones (L) RF: (.229/.278/.407)
7. Chris Young (R) LF: (.250/.298/.464)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.242/.296/.329)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.178/.251/.364)
Gardner, on the other hand, is a homegrown eight-year Yankee who is universally respected throughout baseball. And he is in the middle of a breakout season, hitting .297 with nine home runs, 21 doubles, 60 runs scored, 15 steals and a career-high .854 on-base plus slugging percentage splitting time between left and centerfield.
For all these reasons, when the Yankees have been struggling, Gardner has most often played the role of team spokesman, explaining what has gone wrong and what needs to be done to fix it.
Inside the clubhouse, the 31-year-old South Carolina native is playing the same role. Garrett Jones, who became close to Gardner quickly after joining the team this spring, was immediately struck by the respect that the outfielder commanded from his fellow Yankees, and how he used it to help them.
“As far as leadership on the field, in the clubhouse and off the field, he’s just a good guy, a good teammate, a good human being—he helps out anyone who needs it, you can go out up to him and talk to him about anything at any time,” Jones said.
Gardner really deserves to be on the All Star Team, although I would be surprised if he wins the final man vote, especially with a KC Royal among the candidates. But he’s having a very good year, and has been the most valuable player on a team that’s playing far better than I expected them to in 2015.
Monday, July 6, 2015
Jonah Kerri spotlights four over-30 players having awful years, from Robinson Cano to Matt Kemp to CC Sabathia to Jimmy Rollins.
The part of the article on Sabathia is very interesting. Here’s an excerpt:
Here are CC Sabathia’s ERA and xFIP over the past five seasons:
Year ERA xFIP
2011 3.00 3.02
2012 3.38 3.20
2013 4.78 3.76
2014 5.28 3.11
2015 5.59 3.50
One stat shows a pitcher in spectacular decline; the other shows a pitcher who might’ve lost a little from age 30 to age 34, but not enough to freak out over. So what should we believe?
What xFIP attempts to quantify is how a pitcher fares once you (a) strip out the impact of defense, and (b) normalize his home run rate. That second point has always been a little problematic. Yes, a couple of gusts of wind here or there can make a dent in a pitcher’s home run rate, or more precisely his home-run-per-fly-ball rate. Sabathia was supernaturally consistent in his HR/FB rate throughout his prime, never going lower than 7.4 percent or higher than 8.8 percent from 2006 through 2011. Seeing those figures shoot up to a career-worst 23.3 percent last year and 18.1 percent this season (highest in the AL) might make you look at Sabathia’s poor results as some kind of fluke.
Thing is, we’ve now got PITCHf/x stats and batted-ball stats to help us better understand how and why a pitcher might succeed or fail. And in Sabathia’s case, it’s simple: The fearsome lefty who used to fire mid-90s heat with regularity is now throwing something closer to a batting-practice fastball, and hitters are feasting on it, whacking that pitch at a .355 clip in 2015.
The Yankees are aware of Sabathia’s fall from grace, an outlier stat or two — Sabathia has continued to pound the strike zone and ranks eighth in the AL in strikeout-to-walk ratio — be damned. Nobody is taking the roughly $62 million left on Sabathia’s contract (or $42 million if his 2017 option doesn’t vest), and GM Brian Cashman has been around long enough to understand the concept of sunk costs. Thanks to the franchise’s wealth, the Yanks can make a simple decision based on talent alone: Should they send one of the most decorated pitchers in team history to the bullpen (or a wink-wink DL stint) and shop for a better option via trade? Or should they ride it out and hope that the big lefty rediscovers his lost abilities?