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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Tuesday, December 13, 2011

CAIRO 2012 v0.3 and Some Extremely Early and Completely Useless 2012 Projected Standings

I’m releasing CAIRO 2012 v 0.3 today which mainly fixes a problem with a handful of pitchers like Alexi Ogando and Ross Ohlendorf and moves players to new teams where applicable.  I figure it’d be a good time to run some projected standings even though they are too early to be of any real value.

DISCLAIMER: This is very limited in telling us much about how 2012 will play out for a large number of reasons.

1) There are still a lot of roster changes coming.  This may give us some sense of how the offseason has impacted teams to this point and it also shows us how things might look if nothing changed from now until April.  Which won’t happen.

2) It’s too early to construct meaningful rosters for a lot of teams, so these projections will favor the teams that have essentially completed their 2012 rosters.

3) In addition to that, projection systems are inherently limited.  They are designed to estimate a player’s true talent based on what they’ve done so far and also by factoring in things like age and how similar players have performed in the past.  They will generally be in the ballpark for the general population of MLB players, but they can miss significantly on individual players which can obviously affect certain teams more heavily than others.

Anyway, using the depth charts from the wonderful MLB Depth Charts and includng playing time from players on the 40 man roster who don’t necessarily figure to be part of the the opening day 25 man rosters to account for organizational depth and playing out next season 100,000 times, here’s how CAIRO v0.3 sees things as of December 13, 2011.  These were run with Aramis Ramirez as a Brewer, but I didn’t remove any of the non-tendered players from yesterday from their rosters.

Date 12/13/2011
Iterations 100000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Yankees 94 68 862 740 59.0% 16.8% 75.9%
Red Sox 91 71 868 763 31.1% 26.1% 57.2%
Rays 85 77 717 654 9.5% 11.8% 21.4%
Blue Jays 75 87 773 817 0.3% 0.6% 0.9%
Orioles 68 94 741 853 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Tigers 89 73 780 703 54.3% 4.7% 59.0%
Indians 87 75 751 696 40.8% 5.9% 46.6%
White Sox 77 85 723 795 3.3% 1.5% 4.8%
Royals 73 89 684 760 1.6% 0.2% 1.8%
Twins 66 96 698 829 0.0% - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Rangers 93 69 812 697 58.0% 13.7% 71.6%
Angels 90 72 720 640 39.5% 16.6% 56.1%
Mariners 77 85 653 668 2.3% 2.0% 4.2%
Athletics 71 91 636 686 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Phillies 92 70 681 598 60.6% 10.5% 71.1%
Braves 87 75 711 662 24.9% 13.8% 38.7%
Marlins 81 81 716 695 8.2% 4.4% 12.6%
Nationals 80 82 665 668 4.9% 3.2% 8.1%
Mets 76 86 669 710 1.4% 1.6% 3.0%
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Brewers 92 70 700 646 52.5% 14.3% 66.7%
Cardinals 90 72 708 648 36.8% 19.3% 56.2%
Reds 84 78 724 704 10.1% 10.8% 20.9%
Cubs 74 88 649 727 0.3% 1.1% 1.4%
Pirates 70 92 656 758 0.4% - 0.4%
Astros 60 102 569 759 0.0% - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Giants 88 74 656 613 46.3% 6.4% 52.7%
Diamondbacks 86 76 647 613 31.2% 6.4% 37.6%
Padres 81 81 620 613 11.3% 4.6% 15.9%
Dodgers 79 83 624 644 7.9% 2.9% 10.8%
Rockies 76 86 726 776 3.4% 0.6% 4.0%

The most shocking thing here is the Astros projecting to win 62 games IMO.  I also am amused by the fact that the Marlins don’t really project any better than the Nationals despite all their largesse this offseason.

Also, be aware that I haven’t accounted for the stupid new second wild card thing yet, since I am not certain that it will be implemented for this upcoming season, and rremember that this is more for fun than utility and take it in the appropriate spirit.

--Posted at 11:22 am by SG / 44 Comments | - (0)



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