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Tuesday, December 13, 2011

CAIRO 2012 v0.3 and Some Extremely Early and Completely Useless 2012 Projected Standings

I’m releasing CAIRO 2012 v 0.3 today which mainly fixes a problem with a handful of pitchers like Alexi Ogando and Ross Ohlendorf and moves players to new teams where applicable.  I figure it’d be a good time to run some projected standings even though they are too early to be of any real value.

DISCLAIMER: This is very limited in telling us much about how 2012 will play out for a large number of reasons.

1) There are still a lot of roster changes coming.  This may give us some sense of how the offseason has impacted teams to this point and it also shows us how things might look if nothing changed from now until April.  Which won’t happen.

2) It’s too early to construct meaningful rosters for a lot of teams, so these projections will favor the teams that have essentially completed their 2012 rosters.

3) In addition to that, projection systems are inherently limited.  They are designed to estimate a player’s true talent based on what they’ve done so far and also by factoring in things like age and how similar players have performed in the past.  They will generally be in the ballpark for the general population of MLB players, but they can miss significantly on individual players which can obviously affect certain teams more heavily than others.

Anyway, using the depth charts from the wonderful MLB Depth Charts and includng playing time from players on the 40 man roster who don’t necessarily figure to be part of the the opening day 25 man rosters to account for organizational depth and playing out next season 100,000 times, here’s how CAIRO v0.3 sees things as of December 13, 2011.  These were run with Aramis Ramirez as a Brewer, but I didn’t remove any of the non-tendered players from yesterday from their rosters.

Date	12/13/2011
Iterations	100000
American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Yankees	94	68	862	740	59.0%	16.8%	75.9%
Red Sox	91	71	868	763	31.1%	26.1%	57.2%
Rays	85	77	717	654	9.5%	11.8%	21.4%
Blue Jays	75	87	773	817	0.3%	0.6%	0.9%
Orioles	68	94	741	853	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Tigers	89	73	780	703	54.3%	4.7%	59.0%
Indians	87	75	751	696	40.8%	5.9%	46.6%
White Sox	77	85	723	795	3.3%	1.5%	4.8%
Royals	73	89	684	760	1.6%	0.2%	1.8%
Twins	66	96	698	829	0.0%	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Rangers	93	69	812	697	58.0%	13.7%	71.6%
Angels	90	72	720	640	39.5%	16.6%	56.1%
Mariners	77	85	653	668	2.3%	2.0%	4.2%
Athletics	71	91	636	686	0.3%	0.1%	0.4%
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Phillies	92	70	681	598	60.6%	10.5%	71.1%
Braves	87	75	711	662	24.9%	13.8%	38.7%
Marlins	81	81	716	695	8.2%	4.4%	12.6%
Nationals	80	82	665	668	4.9%	3.2%	8.1%
Mets	76	86	669	710	1.4%	1.6%	3.0%
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Brewers	92	70	700	646	52.5%	14.3%	66.7%
Cardinals	90	72	708	648	36.8%	19.3%	56.2%
Reds	84	78	724	704	10.1%	10.8%	20.9%
Cubs	74	88	649	727	0.3%	1.1%	1.4%
Pirates	70	92	656	758	0.4%	-	0.4%
Astros	60	102	569	759	0.0%	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Giants	88	74	656	613	46.3%	6.4%	52.7%
Diamondbacks	86	76	647	613	31.2%	6.4%	37.6%
Padres	81	81	620	613	11.3%	4.6%	15.9%
Dodgers	79	83	624	644	7.9%	2.9%	10.8%
Rockies	76	86	726	776	3.4%	0.6%	4.0%

The most shocking thing here is the Astros projecting to win 62 games IMO.  I also am amused by the fact that the Marlins don’t really project any better than the Nationals despite all their largesse this offseason.

Also, be aware that I haven’t accounted for the stupid new second wild card thing yet, since I am not certain that it will be implemented for this upcoming season, and rremember that this is more for fun than utility and take it in the appropriate spirit.