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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Tuesday, November 22, 2011

CAIRO 2012 v0.2

Here’s the latest version of the 2012 CAIRO projections, which can be downloaded here: cairo_2012_v0.2.xls.

What’s changed?

- Added more minor leaguers
- Added defensive projections for catchers and added Totalzone and Zone Rating projections for the other positions
- Added W-L for the pitchers, based on their current team and that team’s runs scored in 2011.  This will change as teams’ offensive projections change, so keep that in mind.
- Took the Marcels and changed the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.

So, what does CAIRO 2012 v0.2 think about how good the Yankees are right now? 

Lineup Player Pos PA avg/obp/slg wOBA Outs BR BRAR Def WAR
1 Derek Jeter SS 550 .286/.345/.384 .317 360 64 20 -6 1.3
2 Curtis Granderson CF 600 .263/.351/.502 .350 389 91 38 0 3.8
3 Robinson Cano 2B 625 .303/.352/.504 .352 405 93 39 0 3.9
4 Alex Rodriguez 3B 450 .273/.363/.474 .351 286 66 27 0 2.7
5 Mark Teixeira 1B 625 .263/.359/.493 .352 401 93 26 4 3.0
6 Nick Swisher RF 600 .259/.356/.455 .341 386 83 22 4 2.6
7 Jesus Montero DH 500 .267/.322/.470 .326 339 66 9 0 0.9
8 Russell Martin C 500 .253/.347/.383 .319 326 58 22 1 2.3
9 Brett Gardner LF 500 .262/.347/.371 .315 326 61 10 22 3.2
Starters 4950 .271/.350/.452 .337 3220 675 212 25 23.7
Bench Player Pos PA avg/obp/slg wOBA Outs BR BRAR Def WAR
Eduardo Nunez IF 350 .262/.315/.392 .299 240 40 10 -5 0.5
Chris Dickerson OF 250 .243/.321/.369 .298 170 27 3 0 0.3
Ramiro Pena IF 152 .240/.290/.340 .272 108 13 0 0 0.0
Francisco Cervelli C 150 .264/.328/.373 .303 101 16 5 -3 0.5
Colin Curtis OF 75 .244/.312/.391 .299 52 8 1 0 0.1
Brandon Laird IF 75 .247/.292/.407 .291 53 8 2 0 0.2
Corban Joseph 2B 75 .237/.304/.356 .284 52 7 1 0 0.1
Zoilo Almonte IF 75 .227/.282/.379 .277 54 7 1 0 0.1
Justin Maxwell OF 75 .220/.315/.397 .303 51 9 1 0 0.1
Bench 1277 .248/.311/.378 .294 880 135 24 -5 1.9
Team Total 6227 .266/.342/.436 .328 4100 810 236 17 25.6

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs

The Yankees are not likely to add a position player who will significantly improve these projections, so I think the critical number here is 450.  If they can get more than 450 PA out of Alex Rodriguez they’ll project a bit better.  They can also probably shore up the bench by adding an outfielder who projects better than Chris Dickerson, or who can at least be platooned with Dickerson.  That could be accomplished by bringing back Andruw Jones or signing Cody Ross perhaps.  Ross would project to hit .261/.328/.444 as a Yankee, and is capable of playing all three OF spots.  Plus he’s a clutch postseason monster.  Until he isn’t.

We do know the Yankees are going to try and improve their pitching.

Role Player IP H R HR BB K RA ERA FIP WAR
SP1 CC Sabathia 220 199 87 18 62 195 3.58 3.25 3.23 5.5
SP2 Ivan Nova 200 197 109 22 80 124 4.91 4.48 4.52 2.1
SP3 Phil Hughes 175 169 94 23 60 136 4.86 4.72 4.26 1.9
SP4 A.J. Burnett 175 172 102 24 73 151 5.22 4.88 4.52 1.2
SP5 Hector Noesi 100 112 65 16 33 68 5.83 5.44 4.80 0.0
SP6 Adam Warren 50 55 32 6 19 29 5.71 5.28 4.72 0.1
SP7 David Phelps 50 57 33 7 17 29 5.88 5.44 4.88 0.0
SP8 D. J. Mitchell 25 28 17 3 13 14 6.29 5.81 5.26 -0.1
SP9 Manny Banuelos 25 27 18 4 14 17 6.52 6.01 5.43 -0.2
SP10 Dellin Betances 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.80 6.29 5.75 0.0
Starters 1020 1018 557 124 370 763 4.92 4.57 4.29 10.5
Role Player IP H R HR BB K RA ERA FIP WAR
CL Mariano Rivera 60 44 16 4 11 55 2.36 2.21 2.71 1.9
SU David Robertson 75 58 24 4 38 95 2.88 2.70 2.84 2.0
SU Rafael Soriano 60 46 25 6 21 57 3.78 3.57 3.64 1.0
MR Cory Wade 60 56 28 8 16 42 4.19 3.86 4.31 0.7
MR Joba Chamberlain 50 47 25 5 19 47 4.43 4.04 3.72 0.5
MR Boone Logan 50 49 24 5 20 48 4.36 3.82 3.71 0.5
MR Mike O’Connor 25 26 15 3 9 18 5.32 4.94 4.37 0.0
MR Kevin Whelan 25 25 17 3 18 20 6.16 5.70 5.30 -0.2
LR George Kontos 15 16 11 3 7 10 6.51 6.03 5.64 -0.2
Relievers 420 366 184 43 158 392 3.95 3.64 3.69 6.2
Total 1440 1384 742 167 528 1154 4.64 4.30 4.12 16.6

FIP: Fielding-independent pitching

Basically, the Yankees can add a win for every WAR they add to the rotation, since their rotation projects as replacement level after A.J. Burnett.  That doesn’t mean none of the kids are better than their projections and would do the job in 2012, it just means they shouldn’t plan for that as what’s going to happen.  The bullpen is fine, although they could probably benefit from adding a lefty reliever.  An intriguing name that I’ve seen mentioned here and on Fangraphs is Dontrelle Willis.  I’ll do a detailed post about him later.

Here’s what the overall picture looks like.

RS 810
Def 17
RA 742
wpct .553
p162 90

So we’re looking at around a 90 win team right now.  I think 95 wins is the sweet spot for projecting as the favorite in the AL East.  Adding C.J. Wilson probably gets them there.  Adding Yu Darvish might.  Other than that it’s tough to see a single move that would accomplish it.

--Posted at 8:01 am by SG / 62 Comments | - (0)



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