Tuesday, November 22, 2011
CAIRO 2012 v0.2
Here’s the latest version of the 2012 CAIRO projections, which can be downloaded here: cairo_2012_v0.2.xls.
What’s changed?
- Added more minor leaguers
- Added defensive projections for catchers and added Totalzone and Zone Rating projections for the other positions
- Added W-L for the pitchers, based on their current team and that team’s runs scored in 2011. This will change as teams’ offensive projections change, so keep that in mind.
- Took the Marcels and changed the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
So, what does CAIRO 2012 v0.2 think about how good the Yankees are right now?
| Lineup | Player | Pos | PA | avg/obp/slg | wOBA | Outs | BR | BRAR | Def | WAR |
| 1 | Derek Jeter | SS | 550 | .286/.345/.384 | .317 | 360 | 64 | 20 | -6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | Curtis Granderson | CF | 600 | .263/.351/.502 | .350 | 389 | 91 | 38 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 3 | Robinson Cano | 2B | 625 | .303/.352/.504 | .352 | 405 | 93 | 39 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 4 | Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 450 | .273/.363/.474 | .351 | 286 | 66 | 27 | 0 | 2.7 |
| 5 | Mark Teixeira | 1B | 625 | .263/.359/.493 | .352 | 401 | 93 | 26 | 4 | 3.0 |
| 6 | Nick Swisher | RF | 600 | .259/.356/.455 | .341 | 386 | 83 | 22 | 4 | 2.6 |
| 7 | Jesus Montero | DH | 500 | .267/.322/.470 | .326 | 339 | 66 | 9 | 0 | 0.9 |
| 8 | Russell Martin | C | 500 | .253/.347/.383 | .319 | 326 | 58 | 22 | 1 | 2.3 |
| 9 | Brett Gardner | LF | 500 | .262/.347/.371 | .315 | 326 | 61 | 10 | 22 | 3.2 |
| Starters | 4950 | .271/.350/.452 | .337 | 3220 | 675 | 212 | 25 | 23.7 | ||
| Bench | Player | Pos | PA | avg/obp/slg | wOBA | Outs | BR | BRAR | Def | WAR |
| Eduardo Nunez | IF | 350 | .262/.315/.392 | .299 | 240 | 40 | 10 | -5 | 0.5 | |
| Chris Dickerson | OF | 250 | .243/.321/.369 | .298 | 170 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0.3 | |
| Ramiro Pena | IF | 152 | .240/.290/.340 | .272 | 108 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Francisco Cervelli | C | 150 | .264/.328/.373 | .303 | 101 | 16 | 5 | -3 | 0.5 | |
| Colin Curtis | OF | 75 | .244/.312/.391 | .299 | 52 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | |
| Brandon Laird | IF | 75 | .247/.292/.407 | .291 | 53 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0.2 | |
| Corban Joseph | 2B | 75 | .237/.304/.356 | .284 | 52 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | |
| Zoilo Almonte | IF | 75 | .227/.282/.379 | .277 | 54 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | |
| Justin Maxwell | OF | 75 | .220/.315/.397 | .303 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | |
| Bench | 1277 | .248/.311/.378 | .294 | 880 | 135 | 24 | -5 | 1.9 | ||
| Team Total | 6227 | .266/.342/.436 | .328 | 4100 | 810 | 236 | 17 | 25.6 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
The Yankees are not likely to add a position player who will significantly improve these projections, so I think the critical number here is 450. If they can get more than 450 PA out of Alex Rodriguez they’ll project a bit better. They can also probably shore up the bench by adding an outfielder who projects better than Chris Dickerson, or who can at least be platooned with Dickerson. That could be accomplished by bringing back Andruw Jones or signing Cody Ross perhaps. Ross would project to hit .261/.328/.444 as a Yankee, and is capable of playing all three OF spots. Plus he’s a clutch postseason monster. Until he isn’t.
We do know the Yankees are going to try and improve their pitching.
| Role | Player | IP | H | R | HR | BB | K | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| SP1 | CC Sabathia | 220 | 199 | 87 | 18 | 62 | 195 | 3.58 | 3.25 | 3.23 | 5.5 |
| SP2 | Ivan Nova | 200 | 197 | 109 | 22 | 80 | 124 | 4.91 | 4.48 | 4.52 | 2.1 |
| SP3 | Phil Hughes | 175 | 169 | 94 | 23 | 60 | 136 | 4.86 | 4.72 | 4.26 | 1.9 |
| SP4 | A.J. Burnett | 175 | 172 | 102 | 24 | 73 | 151 | 5.22 | 4.88 | 4.52 | 1.2 |
| SP5 | Hector Noesi | 100 | 112 | 65 | 16 | 33 | 68 | 5.83 | 5.44 | 4.80 | 0.0 |
| SP6 | Adam Warren | 50 | 55 | 32 | 6 | 19 | 29 | 5.71 | 5.28 | 4.72 | 0.1 |
| SP7 | David Phelps | 50 | 57 | 33 | 7 | 17 | 29 | 5.88 | 5.44 | 4.88 | 0.0 |
| SP8 | D. J. Mitchell | 25 | 28 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 6.29 | 5.81 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| SP9 | Manny Banuelos | 25 | 27 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 17 | 6.52 | 6.01 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| SP10 | Dellin Betances | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.80 | 6.29 | 5.75 | 0.0 |
| Starters | 1020 | 1018 | 557 | 124 | 370 | 763 | 4.92 | 4.57 | 4.29 | 10.5 | |
| Role | Player | IP | H | R | HR | BB | K | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| CL | Mariano Rivera | 60 | 44 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 55 | 2.36 | 2.21 | 2.71 | 1.9 |
| SU | David Robertson | 75 | 58 | 24 | 4 | 38 | 95 | 2.88 | 2.70 | 2.84 | 2.0 |
| SU | Rafael Soriano | 60 | 46 | 25 | 6 | 21 | 57 | 3.78 | 3.57 | 3.64 | 1.0 |
| MR | Cory Wade | 60 | 56 | 28 | 8 | 16 | 42 | 4.19 | 3.86 | 4.31 | 0.7 |
| MR | Joba Chamberlain | 50 | 47 | 25 | 5 | 19 | 47 | 4.43 | 4.04 | 3.72 | 0.5 |
| MR | Boone Logan | 50 | 49 | 24 | 5 | 20 | 48 | 4.36 | 3.82 | 3.71 | 0.5 |
| MR | Mike O’Connor | 25 | 26 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 5.32 | 4.94 | 4.37 | 0.0 |
| MR | Kevin Whelan | 25 | 25 | 17 | 3 | 18 | 20 | 6.16 | 5.70 | 5.30 | -0.2 |
| LR | George Kontos | 15 | 16 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 6.51 | 6.03 | 5.64 | -0.2 |
| Relievers | 420 | 366 | 184 | 43 | 158 | 392 | 3.95 | 3.64 | 3.69 | 6.2 | |
| Total | 1440 | 1384 | 742 | 167 | 528 | 1154 | 4.64 | 4.30 | 4.12 | 16.6 |
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
Basically, the Yankees can add a win for every WAR they add to the rotation, since their rotation projects as replacement level after A.J. Burnett. That doesn’t mean none of the kids are better than their projections and would do the job in 2012, it just means they shouldn’t plan for that as what’s going to happen. The bullpen is fine, although they could probably benefit from adding a lefty reliever. An intriguing name that I’ve seen mentioned here and on Fangraphs is Dontrelle Willis. I’ll do a detailed post about him later.
Here’s what the overall picture looks like.
| RS | 810 |
| Def | 17 |
| RA | 742 |
| wpct | .553 |
| p162 | 90 |
So we’re looking at around a 90 win team right now. I think 95 wins is the sweet spot for projecting as the favorite in the AL East. Adding C.J. Wilson probably gets them there. Adding Yu Darvish might. Other than that it’s tough to see a single move that would accomplish it.
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