Sunday, April 8, 2012
April 2012 Log 5 Expectations for the Yankees
To determine how much I should panic after an 0-2 start, I put together a log 5 expectation chart for the Yankees in April. Bil James developed the log 5 methodology to assign win probabilities for a baseball game, and it’s basically team 1’s winning percentage plus 0.5 minus team 2’s winning percentage. For winning percentages I’m using the average of my 2012 projection blowout and I’m also incorporating a 0.04 home field advantage.
| Date | Game | xW | xL | cxW | cxL | aW | aL | caW | caL | delta |
| 4/6 | Yankees @ Rays | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -0.48 |
| 4/7 | Yankees @ Rays | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.97 | 1.03 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -0.97 |
| 4/8 | Yankees @ Rays | 0.48 | 0.52 | 1.45 | 1.55 | 0 | 2 | -1.45 | ||
| 4/9 | Yankees @ Orioles | 0.60 | 0.40 | 2.05 | 1.95 | 0 | 2 | -2.05 | ||
| 4/10 | Yankees @ Orioles | 0.60 | 0.40 | 2.65 | 2.35 | 0 | 2 | -2.65 | ||
| 4/11 | Yankees @ Orioles | 0.60 | 0.40 | 3.26 | 2.74 | 0 | 2 | -3.26 | ||
| 4/13 | Angels @ Yankees | 0.56 | 0.44 | 3.82 | 3.18 | 0 | 2 | -3.82 | ||
| 4/14 | Angels @ Yankees | 0.56 | 0.44 | 4.38 | 3.62 | 0 | 2 | -4.38 | ||
| 4/15 | Angels @ Yankees | 0.56 | 0.44 | 4.95 | 4.05 | 0 | 2 | -4.95 | ||
| 4/16 | Twins @ Yankees | 0.67 | 0.33 | 5.62 | 4.38 | 0 | 2 | -5.62 | ||
| 4/17 | Twins @ Yankees | 0.67 | 0.33 | 6.29 | 4.71 | 0 | 2 | -6.29 | ||
| 4/18 | Twins @ Yankees | 0.67 | 0.33 | 6.96 | 5.04 | 0 | 2 | -6.96 | ||
| 4/19 | Twins @ Yankees | 0.67 | 0.33 | 7.64 | 5.36 | 0 | 2 | -7.64 | ||
| 4/20 | Yankees @ Red Sox | 0.48 | 0.52 | 8.12 | 5.88 | 0 | 2 | -8.12 | ||
| 4/21 | Yankees @ Red Sox | 0.48 | 0.52 | 8.59 | 6.41 | 0 | 2 | -8.59 | ||
| 4/22 | Yankees @ Red Sox | 0.48 | 0.52 | 9.07 | 6.93 | 0 | 2 | -9.07 | ||
| 4/23 | Yankees @ Rangers | 0.47 | 0.53 | 9.54 | 7.46 | 0 | 2 | -9.54 | ||
| 4/24 | Yankees @ Rangers | 0.47 | 0.53 | 10.01 | 7.99 | 0 | 2 | -10.01 | ||
| 4/25 | Yankees @ Rangers | 0.47 | 0.53 | 10.48 | 8.52 | 0 | 2 | -10.48 | ||
| 4/27 | Tigers @ Yankees | 0.59 | 0.41 | 11.07 | 8.93 | 0 | 2 | -11.07 | ||
| 4/28 | Tigers @ Yankees | 0.59 | 0.41 | 11.66 | 9.34 | 0 | 2 | -11.66 | ||
| 4/29 | Tigers @ Yankees | 0.59 | 0.41 | 12.25 | 9.75 | 0 | 2 | -12.25 | ||
| 4/30 | Orioles @ Yankees | 0.68 | 0.32 | 12.93 | 10.07 | 0 | 2 | -12.93 |
xW: Expected win probability for this game
xL: Expected loss probability for this game
cxW: Cumulative expected win probabilities
cxL: Cumulative expected loss probabilities
aW: Actual wins
aL: Actual losses
caW: Cumulative actual wins
caL: Cumulative actual losses
delta: caW minus cxW. Positive means better than expected
Obviously you can’t win partial games, so it’s better to look at the big picture here. The delta basically shows where the Yankees are relative to where they should be. They’re now one game under their season-opening projection, and can get back within about one-half with a win today.
The Yankees would have to go about 13-10 this month if they want to be on pace to get to their average 94 win projection.
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