Tuesday, May 1, 2012
April 2012 Log 5 Checkpoint
Back on April 8, I ran a log 5 expectation table for what the Yankees should have done in April. Given the projections of their opponents and accounting for home field advantage I pegged them going around 13-10.
| Date | Game | xW | xL | cxW | cxL | aW | aL | caW | caL | delta |
| 4/6 | Yankees @ Rays | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -0.49 |
| 4/7 | Yankees @ Rays | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.97 | 1.03 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -0.97 |
| 4/8 | Yankees @ Rays | 0.49 | 0.51 | 1.46 | 1.54 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1.46 |
| 4/9 | Yankees @ Orioles | 0.59 | 0.41 | 2.05 | 1.95 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1.05 |
| 4/10 | Yankees @ Orioles | 0.59 | 0.41 | 2.63 | 2.37 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -0.63 |
| 4/11 | Yankees @ Orioles | 0.59 | 0.41 | 3.22 | 2.78 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -0.22 |
| 4/13 | Angels @ Yankees | 0.58 | 0.42 | 3.80 | 3.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.20 |
| 4/14 | Angels @ Yankees | 0.58 | 0.42 | 4.38 | 3.62 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -0.38 |
| 4/15 | Angels @ Yankees | 0.58 | 0.42 | 4.96 | 4.04 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0.04 |
| 4/16 | Twins @ Yankees | 0.69 | 0.31 | 5.64 | 4.36 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -0.64 |
| 4/17 | Twins @ Yankees | 0.69 | 0.31 | 6.33 | 4.67 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | -0.33 |
| 4/18 | Twins @ Yankees | 0.69 | 0.31 | 7.02 | 4.98 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | -1.02 |
| 4/19 | Twins @ Yankees | 0.69 | 0.31 | 7.71 | 5.29 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | -0.71 |
| 4/20 | Yankees @ Red Sox | 0.49 | 0.51 | 8.19 | 5.81 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | -0.19 |
| 4/21 | Yankees @ Red Sox | 0.49 | 0.51 | 8.68 | 6.32 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 0.32 |
| 4/22 | Yankees @ Red Sox | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.68 | 6.32 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 0.32 |
| 4/23 | Yankees @ Rangers | 0.45 | 0.55 | 9.12 | 6.88 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 0.88 |
| 4/24 | Yankees @ Rangers | 0.45 | 0.55 | 9.57 | 7.43 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 0.43 |
| 4/25 | Yankees @ Rangers | 0.45 | 0.55 | 10.02 | 7.98 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | -0.02 |
| 4/27 | Tigers @ Yankees | 0.60 | 0.40 | 10.61 | 8.39 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 8 | 0.39 |
| 4/28 | Tigers @ Yankees | 0.60 | 0.40 | 11.21 | 8.79 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | -0.21 |
| 4/29 | Tigers @ Yankees | 0.60 | 0.40 | 11.81 | 9.19 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 9 | 0.19 |
| 4/30 | Orioles @ Yankees | 0.67 | 0.33 | 12.48 | 9.52 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 9 | 0.52 |
xW: Expected win probability for this game using Bill James’s log 5 methodology
xL: Expected loss probability for this game
cxW: Cumulative expected win probabilities
cxL: Cumulative expected loss probabilities
aW: Actual wins
aL: Actual losses
caW: Cumulative actual wins
caL: Cumulative actual losses
delta: caW minus cxW. Positive means better than expected
The rain out on April 22 means the final expected April record was about 12.5 - 9.5, so the Yankees are about 0.5 wins ahead of pace. Given the starting pitching they’ve gotten so far, that is amazing to me.
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