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Saturday, October 15, 2011

All Darvish, All the Time

Upon further reflection, I’ve decided to delve a bit deeper into the Yu Darvish situation.  In my first post about him, I used a matched set of innings for all pitchers that came to MLB from Japan as a way to try and estimate how Darvish’s performance may translate.  The problem is that when I looked a bit deeper into it, I found that most of the pitchers who came over were relievers and they generally had better success.  Since we know that relieving tends to be easier than starting, using those pitchers in the sample may not be all that telling.  I also wondered if using career statistics was of much use since player talent is not static.

So I decided to do the same basic idea from that same post, but restricted to the pitchers who were mainly starters in both Japan and MLB.  I’m also restricting the Japanese stats to the 3 years prior to coming to MLB, using a basic 3-2-1 weighing (most recent year weighted at 3).

It’s a much shorter list.

Igawa, Kei
Irabu, Hideki
Ishii, Kazuhisa
Kawakami, Kenshin
Kuroda, Hiroki
Matsuzaka, Daisuke
Nomo, Hideo
Yoshii, Masato

Because it’s a much shorter list, we of course have to be concerned about the dreaded small sample size thing.  But I think the readers here generally understand that, so we’ll press on.

Here are the stats of those pitchers over the three years prior to entering MLB plus their entire MLB record.

Player	Year	Team	Lg	Level	Age	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP
Igawa, Kei	2004	Hanshin	Jap Cen	Intl	24	200	190	95	83	29	54	228	4.27	3.73	3.61
Igawa, Kei	2005	Hanshin	Jap Cen	Intl	25	172	199	91	74	23	60	145	4.75	3.86	4.30
Igawa, Kei	2006	Hanshin	Jap Cen	Intl	26	209	180	77	69	17	49	194	3.32	2.97	3.10
Igawa, Kei	2004-2006	Hanshin	Jap Cen	Intl	24-26	195	188	85	73	21	54	183	3.90	3.36	3.54
				MLB		72	89	54	53	15	37	53	6.78	6.66	5.99
Irabu, Hideki	1994	Chiba Lotte	Jap Pac	Intl	25	207	170	77	70	0	94	239	3.34	3.04	2.25
Irabu, Hideki	1995	Chiba Lotte	Jap Pac	Intl	26	203	158	70	57	0	72	239	3.10	2.53	1.91
Irabu, Hideki	1996	Chiba Lotte	Jap Pac	Intl	27	157	108	57	42	0	59	167	3.26	2.40	2.20
Irabu, Hideki	1994-1996	Chiba Lotte	Jap Pac	Intl	25-27	181	135	65	52	0	69	203	3.22	2.57	2.10
				MLB		514	547	307	294	91	175	405	5.38	5.15	4.95
Ishii, Kazuhisa	1999	Yakult	Jap Cen	Intl	25	133	123	75	71	16	71	162	5.08	4.80	3.93
Ishii, Kazuhisa	2000	Yakult	Jap Cen	Intl	26	183	137	54	53	15	73	210	2.66	2.61	3.17
Ishii, Kazuhisa	2001	Yakult	Jap Cen	Intl	27	175	135	74	66	18	73	173	3.81	3.39	3.81
Ishii, Kazuhisa	1999-2001	Yakult	Jap Cen	Intl	25-27	171	134	68	63	17	73	184	3.56	3.30	3.60
				MLB		564	508	310	278	70	354	435	4.95	4.44	5.15
Kawakami, Kenshin	2006	Chunichi	Jap Cen	Intl	31	215	166	74	60	22	39	194	3.10	2.51	3.27
Kawakami, Kenshin	2007	Chunichi	Jap Cen	Intl	32	167	175	72	66	18	23	145	3.87	3.55	3.28
Kawakami, Kenshin	2008	Chunichi	Jap Cen	Intl	33	117	99	33	30	11	25	112	2.53	2.30	3.15
Kawakami, Kenshin	2006-2008	Chunichi	Jap Cen	Intl	31-33	150	136	53	47	15	27	137	3.16	2.81	3.23
				MLB		244	251	130	117	25	89	164	4.80	4.32	4.28
Kuroda, Hiroki	2005	Hiroshima	Jap Cen	Intl	30	213	183	76	75	17	42	165	3.22	3.17	3.28
Kuroda, Hiroki	2006	Hiroshima	Jap Cen	Intl	31	189	169	49	39	12	21	144	2.33	1.85	2.84
Kuroda, Hiroki	2007	Hiroshima	Jap Cen	Intl	32	180	176	78	71	20	42	123	3.91	3.56	3.98
Kuroda, Hiroki	2005-2007	Hiroshima	Jap Cen	Intl	30-32	188	175	68	61	17	35	137	3.25	2.91	3.46
				MLB		699	667	308	268	64	163	523	3.97	3.45	3.59
Matsuzaka, Daisuke	2004	Seibu	Jap Pac	Intl	23	146	127	50	47	7	42	127	3.08	2.90	2.95
Matsuzaka, Daisuke	2005	Seibu	Jap Pac	Intl	24	215	172	63	55	13	49	226	2.64	2.30	2.57
Matsuzaka, Daisuke	2006	Seibu	Jap Pac	Intl	25	186	138	50	44	13	34	200	2.42	2.13	2.51
Matsuzaka, Daisuke	2004-2006	Seibu	Jap Pac	Intl	23-25	189	148	54	48	12	40	197	2.59	2.29	2.59
				MLB		623	569	304	294	64	301	568	4.39	4.25	4.16
Nomo, Hideo	1992	Kinetsu	Jap Pac	Intl	23	217	150	72	64	0	117	228	2.99	2.66	2.72
Nomo, Hideo	1993	Kinetsu	Jap Pac	Intl	24	243	201	111	100	0	148	276	4.11	3.70	2.76
Nomo, Hideo	1994	Kinetsu	Jap Pac	Intl	25	114	94	52	46	0	86	126	4.11	3.63	3.25
Nomo, Hideo	1992-1994	Kinetsu	Jap Pac	Intl	23-25	174	139	75	67	0	112	193	3.87	3.46	2.91
				MLB		1976	1768	993	932	251	908	1918	4.52	4.24	4.29
Yoshii, Masato	1995	Yakult	Jap Cen	Intl	30	147	126	59	51	0	39	91	3.60	3.12	2.76
Yoshii, Masato	1996	Yakult	Jap Cen	Intl	31	180	154	71	65	0	47	145	3.54	3.24	2.37
Yoshii, Masato	1997	Yakult	Jap Cen	Intl	32	174	149	61	58	0	48	104	3.15	2.99	2.83
Yoshii, Masato	1995-1997	Yakult	Jap Cen	Intl	30-32	172	147	64	59	0	46	116	3.35	3.10	2.66
Yoshii, Masato_MLB				MLB		757	805	408	389	112	222	447	4.85	4.62	4.82

Same list, just looking at three-year weighed average and MLB career. I’ve pro-rated each pitcher’s innings to the smaller of the two.

Player	Level	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP
Igawa, Kei	Intl	72	69	31	27	8	20	67	3.90	3.36	3.54
	MLB	72	89	54	53	15	37	53	6.78	6.66	5.99
Irabu, Hideki	Intl	181	135	65	52	16	69	203	3.22	2.57	3.25
	MLB	181	193	108	103	32	62	143	5.38	5.15	4.95
Ishii, Kazuhisa	Intl	171	134	68	63	17	73	184	3.56	3.30	3.60
	MLB	171	154	94	84	21	107	132	4.95	4.44	5.15
Kawakami, Kenshin	Intl	150	136	53	47	15	27	137	3.16	2.81	3.23
	MLB	150	155	80	72	15	55	101	4.80	4.32	4.28
Kuroda, Hiroki	Intl	188	175	68	61	17	35	137	3.25	2.91	3.46
	MLB	188	180	83	72	17	44	141	3.97	3.45	3.59
Matsuzaka, Daisuke	Intl	189	148	54	48	12	40	197	2.59	2.29	2.59
	MLB	189	173	92	89	19	91	173	4.39	4.25	4.16
Nomo, Hideo	Intl	174	139	75	67	11	112	193	3.87	3.46	3.73
	MLB	174	156	88	82	22	80	169	4.52	4.24	4.29
Yoshii, Masato	Intl	172	147	64	59	12	46	116	3.35	3.10	3.57
	MLB	172	183	93	88	25	50	101	4.85	4.62	4.82
Average	Intl	162	135	60	53	13	53	154	3.31	2.94	3.35
	MLB	162	160	86	81	21	66	127	4.80	4.47	4.54
%Change	Intl->MLB		1.18	1.45	1.52	1.56	1.25	0.82	1.45	1.52	1.35

The data for Irabu, Nomo and Yoshii was missing HRs allowed, so I used the average of difference between MLB HRs and Japan HRs allowed by the others to fudge it.  That probably introduces more error in here, so keep it in mind.

This is not nearly as optimistic as the set of data that includes relievers, which I guess feels right to me.

Player	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP
Darvish, Yu	214	150	43	38	6	41	240	1.81	1.59	1.88
Darvish->Average	214	178	62	57	9	51	197	2.62	2.42	2.62
Darvish->Igawa, Kei	214	194	75	75	11	78	189	3.15	3.14	3.19
Darvish->Irabu, Hideki	214	214	72	75	11	37	168	3.03	3.18	2.83
Darvish->Ishii, Kazuhisa	214	173	60	51	7	61	172	2.52	2.14	2.88
Darvish->Kawakami, Kenshin	214	172	65	58	6	85	177	2.75	2.44	3.08
Darvish->Kuroda, Hiroki	214	155	52	45	6	52	247	2.21	1.88	1.97
Darvish->Matsuzaka, Daisuke	214	176	73	70	9	93	211	3.08	2.94	3.10
Darvish->Nomo, Hideo	214	169	50	46	11	29	210	2.11	1.95	2.34
Darvish->Yoshii, Masato	214	187	62	56	12	45	211	2.62	2.37	2.59

The first line here is Darvish’s 2009-2011 three-year weighed average.  Each subsequent line is what his stats would like if he saw the same % difference in his component stats that the average starter did, as well as how it would look if he ended up following the path of each individual starter.

Think about this.  If Darvish’s struggles to the same relative extent that Kei Igawa has, he’d have an ERA of 3.15.

I think Darvish very well might be one of the best pitchers on the planet right now.  He’s probably not, but the Yankees should really go all out for him.  Just in case he is.