The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








RSS 2.0 Atom


NJ.com: Yankees’ CC Sabathia: I could still dominate
(17 Comments - 10/24/2014 5:58:39 pm)

TGS: Hunter Strickland’s explosive October
(16 Comments - 10/23/2014 10:32:24 pm)

MLB Trade Rumors: Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees
(37 Comments - 10/23/2014 12:27:33 pm)

Newsday: Gary Denbo expected to replace Mark Newman in Yankees’ front office
(43 Comments - 10/22/2014 11:12:13 am)

NY Post: With Chili Davis off market, Yankees turn to Dave Magadan
(27 Comments - 10/21/2014 4:14:39 am)

TGS NY: Can McCann help lead the Bombers back?
(42 Comments - 10/19/2014 6:53:53 pm)

NYDN: Dave Magadan, Chili Davis are early frontrunners for Yankees hitting coach job
(34 Comments - 10/17/2014 9:05:10 am)

TGS NY: Eleven young Yankees on the rise in 2015
(76 Comments - 10/16/2014 10:13:29 am)

Newsday: Sources: Yankees considering Omar Minaya for high-ranking position in front office
(75 Comments - 10/15/2014 9:29:03 am)

NY Post: Yankees make to-do list: Third base, shortstop, rotation, closer
(63 Comments - 10/15/2014 1:12:44 am)



Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




This site is best viewed with a monitor.

Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.


Saturday, October 15, 2011

All Darvish, All the Time

Upon further reflection, I’ve decided to delve a bit deeper into the Yu Darvish situation.  In my first post about him, I used a matched set of innings for all pitchers that came to MLB from Japan as a way to try and estimate how Darvish’s performance may translate.  The problem is that when I looked a bit deeper into it, I found that most of the pitchers who came over were relievers and they generally had better success.  Since we know that relieving tends to be easier than starting, using those pitchers in the sample may not be all that telling.  I also wondered if using career statistics was of much use since player talent is not static.

So I decided to do the same basic idea from that same post, but restricted to the pitchers who were mainly starters in both Japan and MLB.  I’m also restricting the Japanese stats to the 3 years prior to coming to MLB, using a basic 3-2-1 weighing (most recent year weighted at 3).

It’s a much shorter list.

Igawa, Kei
Irabu, Hideki
Ishii, Kazuhisa
Kawakami, Kenshin
Kuroda, Hiroki
Matsuzaka, Daisuke
Nomo, Hideo
Yoshii, Masato

Because it’s a much shorter list, we of course have to be concerned about the dreaded small sample size thing.  But I think the readers here generally understand that, so we’ll press on.

Here are the stats of those pitchers over the three years prior to entering MLB plus their entire MLB record.

Player Year Team Lg Level Age IP H R ER HR BB SO RA ERA FIP
Igawa, Kei 2004 Hanshin Jap Cen Intl 24 200 190 95 83 29 54 228 4.27 3.73 3.61
Igawa, Kei 2005 Hanshin Jap Cen Intl 25 172 199 91 74 23 60 145 4.75 3.86 4.30
Igawa, Kei 2006 Hanshin Jap Cen Intl 26 209 180 77 69 17 49 194 3.32 2.97 3.10
Igawa, Kei 2004-2006 Hanshin Jap Cen Intl 24-26 195 188 85 73 21 54 183 3.90 3.36 3.54
MLB 72 89 54 53 15 37 53 6.78 6.66 5.99
Irabu, Hideki 1994 Chiba Lotte Jap Pac Intl 25 207 170 77 70 0 94 239 3.34 3.04 2.25
Irabu, Hideki 1995 Chiba Lotte Jap Pac Intl 26 203 158 70 57 0 72 239 3.10 2.53 1.91
Irabu, Hideki 1996 Chiba Lotte Jap Pac Intl 27 157 108 57 42 0 59 167 3.26 2.40 2.20
Irabu, Hideki 1994-1996 Chiba Lotte Jap Pac Intl 25-27 181 135 65 52 0 69 203 3.22 2.57 2.10
MLB 514 547 307 294 91 175 405 5.38 5.15 4.95
Ishii, Kazuhisa 1999 Yakult Jap Cen Intl 25 133 123 75 71 16 71 162 5.08 4.80 3.93
Ishii, Kazuhisa 2000 Yakult Jap Cen Intl 26 183 137 54 53 15 73 210 2.66 2.61 3.17
Ishii, Kazuhisa 2001 Yakult Jap Cen Intl 27 175 135 74 66 18 73 173 3.81 3.39 3.81
Ishii, Kazuhisa 1999-2001 Yakult Jap Cen Intl 25-27 171 134 68 63 17 73 184 3.56 3.30 3.60
MLB 564 508 310 278 70 354 435 4.95 4.44 5.15
Kawakami, Kenshin 2006 Chunichi Jap Cen Intl 31 215 166 74 60 22 39 194 3.10 2.51 3.27
Kawakami, Kenshin 2007 Chunichi Jap Cen Intl 32 167 175 72 66 18 23 145 3.87 3.55 3.28
Kawakami, Kenshin 2008 Chunichi Jap Cen Intl 33 117 99 33 30 11 25 112 2.53 2.30 3.15
Kawakami, Kenshin 2006-2008 Chunichi Jap Cen Intl 31-33 150 136 53 47 15 27 137 3.16 2.81 3.23
MLB 244 251 130 117 25 89 164 4.80 4.32 4.28
Kuroda, Hiroki 2005 Hiroshima Jap Cen Intl 30 213 183 76 75 17 42 165 3.22 3.17 3.28
Kuroda, Hiroki 2006 Hiroshima Jap Cen Intl 31 189 169 49 39 12 21 144 2.33 1.85 2.84
Kuroda, Hiroki 2007 Hiroshima Jap Cen Intl 32 180 176 78 71 20 42 123 3.91 3.56 3.98
Kuroda, Hiroki 2005-2007 Hiroshima Jap Cen Intl 30-32 188 175 68 61 17 35 137 3.25 2.91 3.46
MLB 699 667 308 268 64 163 523 3.97 3.45 3.59
Matsuzaka, Daisuke 2004 Seibu Jap Pac Intl 23 146 127 50 47 7 42 127 3.08 2.90 2.95
Matsuzaka, Daisuke 2005 Seibu Jap Pac Intl 24 215 172 63 55 13 49 226 2.64 2.30 2.57
Matsuzaka, Daisuke 2006 Seibu Jap Pac Intl 25 186 138 50 44 13 34 200 2.42 2.13 2.51
Matsuzaka, Daisuke 2004-2006 Seibu Jap Pac Intl 23-25 189 148 54 48 12 40 197 2.59 2.29 2.59
MLB 623 569 304 294 64 301 568 4.39 4.25 4.16
Nomo, Hideo 1992 Kinetsu Jap Pac Intl 23 217 150 72 64 0 117 228 2.99 2.66 2.72
Nomo, Hideo 1993 Kinetsu Jap Pac Intl 24 243 201 111 100 0 148 276 4.11 3.70 2.76
Nomo, Hideo 1994 Kinetsu Jap Pac Intl 25 114 94 52 46 0 86 126 4.11 3.63 3.25
Nomo, Hideo 1992-1994 Kinetsu Jap Pac Intl 23-25 174 139 75 67 0 112 193 3.87 3.46 2.91
MLB 1976 1768 993 932 251 908 1918 4.52 4.24 4.29
Yoshii, Masato 1995 Yakult Jap Cen Intl 30 147 126 59 51 0 39 91 3.60 3.12 2.76
Yoshii, Masato 1996 Yakult Jap Cen Intl 31 180 154 71 65 0 47 145 3.54 3.24 2.37
Yoshii, Masato 1997 Yakult Jap Cen Intl 32 174 149 61 58 0 48 104 3.15 2.99 2.83
Yoshii, Masato 1995-1997 Yakult Jap Cen Intl 30-32 172 147 64 59 0 46 116 3.35 3.10 2.66
Yoshii, Masato_MLB MLB 757 805 408 389 112 222 447 4.85 4.62 4.82

Same list, just looking at three-year weighed average and MLB career. I’ve pro-rated each pitcher’s innings to the smaller of the two.

Player Level IP H R ER HR BB SO RA ERA FIP
Igawa, Kei Intl 72 69 31 27 8 20 67 3.90 3.36 3.54
MLB 72 89 54 53 15 37 53 6.78 6.66 5.99
Irabu, Hideki Intl 181 135 65 52 16 69 203 3.22 2.57 3.25
MLB 181 193 108 103 32 62 143 5.38 5.15 4.95
Ishii, Kazuhisa Intl 171 134 68 63 17 73 184 3.56 3.30 3.60
MLB 171 154 94 84 21 107 132 4.95 4.44 5.15
Kawakami, Kenshin Intl 150 136 53 47 15 27 137 3.16 2.81 3.23
MLB 150 155 80 72 15 55 101 4.80 4.32 4.28
Kuroda, Hiroki Intl 188 175 68 61 17 35 137 3.25 2.91 3.46
MLB 188 180 83 72 17 44 141 3.97 3.45 3.59
Matsuzaka, Daisuke Intl 189 148 54 48 12 40 197 2.59 2.29 2.59
MLB 189 173 92 89 19 91 173 4.39 4.25 4.16
Nomo, Hideo Intl 174 139 75 67 11 112 193 3.87 3.46 3.73
MLB 174 156 88 82 22 80 169 4.52 4.24 4.29
Yoshii, Masato Intl 172 147 64 59 12 46 116 3.35 3.10 3.57
MLB 172 183 93 88 25 50 101 4.85 4.62 4.82
Average Intl 162 135 60 53 13 53 154 3.31 2.94 3.35
MLB 162 160 86 81 21 66 127 4.80 4.47 4.54
%Change Intl->MLB 1.18 1.45 1.52 1.56 1.25 0.82 1.45 1.52 1.35

The data for Irabu, Nomo and Yoshii was missing HRs allowed, so I used the average of difference between MLB HRs and Japan HRs allowed by the others to fudge it.  That probably introduces more error in here, so keep it in mind.

This is not nearly as optimistic as the set of data that includes relievers, which I guess feels right to me.

Player IP H R ER HR BB SO RA ERA FIP
Darvish, Yu 214 150 43 38 6 41 240 1.81 1.59 1.88
Darvish->Average 214 178 62 57 9 51 197 2.62 2.42 2.62
Darvish->Igawa, Kei 214 194 75 75 11 78 189 3.15 3.14 3.19
Darvish->Irabu, Hideki 214 214 72 75 11 37 168 3.03 3.18 2.83
Darvish->Ishii, Kazuhisa 214 173 60 51 7 61 172 2.52 2.14 2.88
Darvish->Kawakami, Kenshin 214 172 65 58 6 85 177 2.75 2.44 3.08
Darvish->Kuroda, Hiroki 214 155 52 45 6 52 247 2.21 1.88 1.97
Darvish->Matsuzaka, Daisuke 214 176 73 70 9 93 211 3.08 2.94 3.10
Darvish->Nomo, Hideo 214 169 50 46 11 29 210 2.11 1.95 2.34
Darvish->Yoshii, Masato 214 187 62 56 12 45 211 2.62 2.37 2.59

The first line here is Darvish’s 2009-2011 three-year weighed average.  Each subsequent line is what his stats would like if he saw the same % difference in his component stats that the average starter did, as well as how it would look if he ended up following the path of each individual starter.

Think about this.  If Darvish’s struggles to the same relative extent that Kei Igawa has, he’d have an ERA of 3.15.

I think Darvish very well might be one of the best pitchers on the planet right now.  He’s probably not, but the Yankees should really go all out for him.  Just in case he is.

--Posted at 9:28 am by SG / 62 Comments | - (0)



Page 1 of 1 pages: