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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Alex Rodriguez Projections vs. Actuals 2008-2012

In the previous post, j wondered:

I’m just wondering what we would have projected to had he not gotten the hip injruy - which I figured would be him hitting his 50% each year since 2008 or so, and it’d probably be close to what he did in 2009.

One way to answer this question would be to look at how Rodriguez has projected since 2008 compared to how he actually ended up doing.  I have projections for four systems (Cairo, Marcel, Pecota and ZiPS) going back to 2008, and here’s what they say compared to his actual performance.

Year Projection   PA  AB   H  2B   3B  HR   SB  CS   BB  SO   HBP  AVG   OBP  SLG BR
2008 cairo 689 581 174 27 1 43 19 4 90 128 14 .299 .403 .570 127
2008 marcel 621 525 157 26 1 36 17 4 79 118 12 .299 .399 .558 111
2008 pecota 684 572 169 34 2 36 23 4 94 130 11 .294 .401 .550 123
2008 zips 698 590 180 30 1 44 16 3 93 132 15 .305 .413 .583 132
2008 Actual 594 510 154 33 0 35 18 3 65 117 14 .302 .392 .573 109
Year Projection   PA  AB   H  2B   3B  HR   SB  CS   BB  SO   HBP  AVG   OBP  SLG BR
2009 cairo 654 554 164 30 1 37 17 4 82 126 14 .296 .398 .553 116
2009 marcel 568 484 140 26 1 32 15 3 68 110 7 .289 .379 .545 97
2009 pecota 624 537 151 29 1 30 18 4 72 124 9 .282 .373 .508 99
2009 zips 641 548 160 30 0 37 15 17 78 124 15 .292 .395 .549 108
2009 Actual 535 444 127 17 1 30 14 2 80 97 8 .286 .402 .532 93
Year Projection   PA  AB   H  2B   3B  HR   SB  CS   BB  SO   HBP  AVG   OBP  SLG BR
2010 cairo 605 509 144 23 1 37 18 3 79 114 12 .282 .389 .546 106
2010 marcel 527 447 128 22 1 31 15 3 66 100 10 .286 .387 .548 92
2010 pecota 541 465 134 20 1 34 10 5 64 94 12 .288 .388 .555 93
2010 zips 558 477 134 25 1 30 15 3 69 106 12 .281 .385 .526 94
2010 Actual 595 522 141 29 2 30 4 3 59 98 3 .270 .341 .506 86
Year Projection   PA  AB   H  2B   3B  HR   SB  CS   BB  SO   HBP  AVG   OBP  SLG BR
2011 cairo 594 510 143 27 1 32 11 3 69 111 7 .280 .370 .525 96
2011 marcel 551 479 129 24 1 26 10 3 60 103 6 .269 .354 .486 81
2011 pecota 621 533 145 25 1 34 13 4 75 116 7 .272 .370 .514 98
2011 zips 537 459 127 23 1 30 10 3 63 100 6 .277 .369 .527 86
2011 Actual 428 373 103 21 0 16 4 1 47 80 5 .276 .362 .461 61
Year Projection   PA   AB   H   2B   3B   HR   SB   CS   BB   SO   HBP   AVG   OBP   SLG BR
2012 cairo 459 398 109 21 1 19 6 2 53 82 5 .273 .364 .474 67
2012 marcel 474 412 110 21 1 20 7 2 51 86 5 .267 .350 .468 66
2012 pecota 572 499 137 24 1 30 9 2 67 112 6 .275 .368 .507 89
2012 zips 466 405 107 20 1 21 7 2 51 89 5 .264 .350 .474 66
2012 Actual 529 463 126 17 1 18 13 1 51 116 10 .272 .353 .430 70

Season by season doesn’t necessarily tell us as much as the totals would, so here are those.

Year Projection   PA  AB   H  2B   3B  HR   SB  CS   BB  SO   HBP  AVG   OBP  SLG BR
2008-2012 cairo 3001 2552 734 128 5 168 71 16 373 561 52 .288 .386 .539 511
2008-2012 marcel 2741 2347 664 119 5 145 64 15 324 517 40 .283 .375 .523 447
2008-2012 pecota 3042 2606 736 132 6 164 73 19 372 576 45 .282 .379 .526 502
2008-2012 zips 2900 2479 708 128 4 162 63 28 354 551 53 .286 .385 .537 486
2008-2012 Actual 2681 2312 651 117 4 129 53 10 302 508 40 .282 .370 .503 419

I’d like to thank A-Rod for making CAIRO look terrible, although ZiPS essentially projected the same numbers aside from SB/CS.  But really, this chart shows how much worse Rodriguez has been than expected.  In terms of BR (linear weights batting runs) he’s been worth anywhere from 26 to 92 fewer runs than expected.

If Rodriguez had hit his projections over each of the last four seasons and if we give those seasons a 4/3/2/1 weight by recency here’s how Rodriguez would project in 2013 (minus any other regression or aging).

Year Projection   PA  AB   H  2B   3B  HR   SB  CS   BB  SO   HBP  AVG   OBP  SLG BR
2013 cairo 548 469 132 24 1 28 11 3 66 102 8 .281 .375 .517 88
2013 marcel 517 446 122 23 1 25 10 3 58 96 7 .274 .362 .499 79
2013 pecota 586 506 140 24 1 32 11 3 69 111 8 .277 .371 .518 94
2013 zips 523 450 124 23 1 27 10 4 61 99 8 .275 .368 .511 82

One thing to consider is that if his performance has been affected by his hip to the point where it’s manifesting itself in his actual performance, that is also dragging down his projection in each subsequent season.  So in theory he’d project even better than any of those lines.

I don’t have all the projections for 2013 yet, but CAIRO says .263/.339/.433 and my unofficial version of Marcel says .265/.341/.451.

We really have no idea if the hip injury is to blame for Rodriguez’s steeper than expected decline in his rate of performance.  It certainly seems like a major reason, but it’s not the only possible explanation.  So while there’s a chance that correcting this issue can help him be more productive going forward, I wouldn’t count on it.

But who knows?

--Posted at 1:43 pm by SG / 24 Comments | - (0)



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