Friday, April 20, 2012
A Tale of Two Log 5s
The Yankees have been a bit under their expected record to this point using Bill James’s log 5 expectations given pre-season projections for them and their respective opponents and adjusting for home/road advantage/disadvantage.
The Red Sox have been more than a bit under their expected record using the same criteria. Here’s how they compare.
| Team | NYA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Opp | xW | aW |
| 6-Apr | @TAM | 0.53 | 0 |
| 7-Apr | @TAM | 0.53 | 0 |
| 8-Apr | @TAM | 0.53 | 0 |
| 9-Apr | @BAL | 0.65 | 1 |
| 10-Apr | @BAL | 0.65 | 1 |
| 11-Apr | @BAL | 0.65 | 1 |
| 13-Apr | LAA | 0.52 | 1 |
| 14-Apr | LAA | 0.52 | 0 |
| 15-Apr | LAA | 0.52 | 1 |
| 16-Apr | MIN | 0.64 | 0 |
| 17-Apr | MIN | 0.64 | 1 |
| 18-Apr | MIN | 0.64 | 0 |
| 19-Apr | MIN | 0.64 | 1 |
| 7.68 | 7.00 |
| Team | BOS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Opp | xW | aW |
| 5-Apr | @DET | 0.53 | 0 |
| 7-Apr | @DET | 0.53 | 0 |
| 8-Apr | @DET | 0.53 | 0 |
| 9-Apr | @TOR | 0.56 | 1 |
| 10-Apr | @TOR | 0.56 | 0 |
| 11-Apr | @TOR | 0.56 | 0 |
| 13-Apr | TAM | 0.51 | 1 |
| 14-Apr | TAM | 0.51 | 1 |
| 15-Apr | TAM | 0.51 | 1 |
| 16-Apr | TAM | 0.51 | 0 |
| 17-Apr | TEX | 0.50 | 0 |
| 18-Apr | TEX | 0.50 | 0 |
| 6.33 | 4.00 |
xW: Expected wins using log 5 and these pre-season projections
aW: Actual wins
The Yankees actually project as slight favorites in this series at 1.56 - 1.44. Here’s how the two teams’ would compare to their overall log 5 based on the various potential series outcomes.
Yankee sweep: Yankees aW: 10, xW: 9.23, Boston aW: 4, xW: 7.77
Yankees 2-1: Yankees aW: 9, xW: 9.23, Boston aW: 5, xw: 7.77
Boston 2-1: Yankees aW: 8, xW: 9.23, Boston aW: 6, xW: 7.77
Boston sweep: Yankees aW: 7, xW: 9.23, Boston aW: 7, xW: 7.77
So the Yankees really only need to win one of these games to remain closer to their relative expectations than Boston.
I’d obviously like to see more than that.
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