Friday, May 4, 2012
Yankees.com: CC wins fourth straight after Yanks erupt late
KANSAS CITY—Eduardo Nunez’s go-ahead RBI triple opened the floodgates in a four-run seventh inning as the Yankees rallied to top the Royals, 6-2, on Friday at Kauffman Stadium.
Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter also homered as New York snapped its three-game losing skid behind eight strong innings from ace CC Sabathia, who won his fourth straight start.
That was a much needed win, more to regain sanity than anything else.
Also, For now, Robertson, Soriano will split ninth.
This seems like a good idea if it means using Robertson in the higher leverage situations.
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
NJ.com: Carig: Phil Hughes is just okay for Yankees in 7-1 loss to Orioles
In what ultimately went down as a 7-1 loss to the Orioles, Hughes gave his team a chance to win, departing with the Yankees trailing only by two runs.
For others, allowing four runs in 5⅔ innings is hardly a cause for celebration. But for Hughes, whose season until Tuesday night had been marked by short, brutish appearances, it was a step forward.
It was tentative step, but a step nonetheless, and both Hughes and the Yankees seemed eager to take it.
Perhaps it is why the crowd gave the pitcher a lukewarm round of applause, despite the fact that Hughes displayed some of the same issues that have plagued him all year.
It was almost certainly Hughes’s best start of the year, but it still wasn’t a great one. I did see enough to think that if Hughes eventually winds up back in the bullpen, he’ll be pretty good there, because he got his fastball up to 95 and he probably had his best curve of the year on top of it. Until Andy Pettitte is ready to return Hughes is safe in the rotation, but it’ll be interesting to see what happens if David Phelps outpitches him in the rotation until then.
As for the rest of the team, feh. Aside from Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson,there’s really no compelling reason to watch them right now. I don’t expect it to last, but that doesn’t mean it’s not frustrating to watch right now.
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Does Derek Jeter now project to hit .300?
Like most stat-heads, I know that batting average is not really a good gauge of how good a player is. That doesn’t mean it’s useless, just that there are better stats to tell us how valuable a player is.
Despite that, I can’t help but find a .300 average more aesthetically pleasing than an average of .299 or less. Derek Jeter’s made a Hall of Fame career based primarily on hitting .300 or better (.314 career), but after his disappointing 2010 it seemed like those days were over. He rode a second-half hot streak in 2011 to the cusp of yet another .300 season, but his bid fell short in the season finale.
With his 2 for 3 earlier today Jeter now sits at .396/.440/.593 with nearly a month of the season over. I’m going to go out on a limb and say he will not finish the year at .396, since I hate him and all. But I wondered if he should now project to end the year at .300.
I can try and figure this out by running a revised CAIRO for Jeter including the data we have for 2012, then adding that revised projection to what he’s already done. It looks like this.
| player | projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| Derek Jeter | original | 644 | 576 | 91 | 165 | 25 | 2 | 9 | 63 | 18 | 5 | 54 | 92 | .286 | .350 | .384 |
| Derek Jeter | ROY | 562 | 504 | 80 | 149 | 23 | 1 | 9 | 57 | 15 | 5 | 46 | 79 | .295 | .356 | .402 |
| Derek Jeter | revised | 658 | 592 | 95 | 183 | 29 | 1 | 13 | 70 | 16 | 6 | 52 | 90 | .309 | .364 | .430 |
ROY: Rest of year projection.
revised: ROY plus 2012 performance
Jeter’s hot April has revised his CAIRO projection from .286/.350/.384 to .295/.356/.402. Adding that to what he’s done has him ending the year with a line of .309/.364/.430, which would make him worth close to 20 runs more than projected entering the year. ZiPS was less sanguine about Jeter heading into this season, but its revised projection has moved from .268/.329/.362 to .281/.341/.386 which is actually a bigger improvement relative to its orginal projection than CAIRO’s.
I’ll admit, I didn’t think he still had it in him. I’m happy to have been wrong so far, and hope I continue to be even wronger.
Monday, April 23, 2012
Yankees.com: Jeter’s four hits help CC top Texas
ARLINGTON—The Yankees believed their trip to Texas could be a good measurement of how they would stack up against the American League’s best competition thus far, and the early results suggest they’re doing just fine.
CC Sabathia pitched eight innings in what was arguably his sharpest start of the young season, Alex Rodriguez homered and Derek Jeter banged out four hits as the Yankees defeated the Rangers, 7-4, on Monday at Rangers Ballpark.
I think Sabathia pitched much better than the four runs allowed would have you believe. Fortunately for him his offense gave him seven runs so it can be considered a gutsy performance instead of a disappointing one.
Derek Jeter’s continuing resurgence is the story of the season so far though in my mind. He now leads the AL in hits and these aren’t cheap for the most part. He’s hitting the ball hard to the outfield consistently and it’s been great to watch.
If the Yankees can take one of the next two games, this road trip will have been a resounding success.
Friday, April 20, 2012
Crashing the Party
I decided to make use of my field pass during Yankees' batting practice on Friday afternoon. I figured that I should make the most of it before somebody wised up and revoked it.
Trying to remain as incognito as possible, I snapped off a few pictures using my phone (hence the poor picture quality). Click on any of them to enlarge.

I took this shot just as the Red Sox were finishing up their BP - all the Yankees were still in the dugout getting ready to come out and stretch.

Papelbon is right, Mo has a great smile.

CHB asked asked A-Rod about his favorite Fenway moments. I believe A-Rod mentioned his first major league game in July of 1994.

One of the funnier moments I witnessed was when Nick Swisher came into the dugout before taking BP. Russell Martin was just about to sit down with a reporter from a Canadian news outlet, and Swisher started yelling out, "French time? Time for French!?"
Another interesting thing I caught was Swisher talking to Ibanez about the difference between Yankee Stadium's short porch and the wall in left at Fenway. He said something about how if you get jammed at Yankee Stadium, you won't be able to muscle it out; but you can get jammed and still go deep over the monster. Or maybe it was the other way around. The funny thing was that it almost looked like he got jammed in his first plate appearance on Friday and he actually took it the other way for a HR over the monster.

Kuroda sitting down for an interview with Japanese TV. I only caught one word: Ichiro.
Every time I get an assignment for a Yankee game, I hope to see Mariano Rivera take the mound. So when Cody Eppley came in with a four run lead in the bottom of the ninth, I was a bit disconcerted. However, it only took one single off the bat of Jarrod Saltalamacchia for Girardi to make the inevitable call to the bullpen, and I once again got to see my absolute favorite player in action. Two strike outs and a ground out was all the Red Sox could muster against the greatest closer in baseball history, and the Yankees took the first game of the season series 6-2.
Happy Birthday Fenway.
Yankees.com: After honoring Fenway, Yanks pound Sox
Honoring the oldest operating facility in the big leagues, Boston was attired in replicas of what the club would have worn on April 20, 1912, as the gates along Yawkey Way opened, just five days after the sinking of the Titanic.
The Red Sox won that opening game, 7-6, in 11 innings, but behind a 15th consecutive winning decision from right-hander Ivan Nova and the Yankees’ offensive power, New York spoiled any chances of a historic reprisal early.
Dustin Pedroia dropped a Derek Jeter popup that led to an unearned first-inning run before Swisher and Chavez teed off on Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz for solo homers in the second inning.
Chavez added a second homer in the fourth frame off Buchholz, and Rodriguez slugged the 631st of his big league career over the Green Monster in the fifth, passing former Mariners teammate Ken Griffey Jr. for sole possession of fifth place on the all-time list.
I can’t wait to watch the replay of this one.
Monday, April 16, 2012
Close the Curtain Slowly: Derek, Bernie, and the dream
Angry at Derek Jeter? Well, those sacrifice bunts in the first inning could incite even a Buddhist monk. But aside from that unfortunate habit, I find it nearly impossible to disdain Jeter, even as he was routinely overpowered by just about any pitcher throwing with a right hand during the first half of last season.
I do my best to accept the limitations of baseball players. Criticizing athletes from a couch is an American pastime, and even the most rational sports followers are occasionally swept within the winds of irrational emotion. My past experiences playing competitive baseball, against high school caliber competition, taught me two personal lessons. That baseball was incredibly difficult, and creatively cruel. The players earning big money professionally had to overcome career combusting elements through all levels of their journey, from mastering the delicate skill of consistency, to maintaining health while playing a physically demanding game.
Despite being slightly aware of baseball’s difficulty, I still fly off the handle with ease. When a runner is on third with less than two out, I become easily incensed at ‘unproductive outs.’ Of course, the gods of baseball (impassive orbs in outer space, see the syllabus) see all outs as more or less the same. Depending on game situation, fans have a tendency to believe players can magically guide ‘productive outs’ at will. So I’ll be especially hard on Robinson Cano, if he flails at a pitch out of the strike zone with the bases loaded, or Nick Swisher, if the swagger hound strikes out when a ground ball could have sufficed. Jeter is the exception. He consistently escapes my ire. Because I am not in a rush to judge his performance, I feel more of a distinct connection with him. Inside of me there’s still the teenage Jeter fan boy who was insulted during the 2001 playoffs when Fox compared him with Miguel Tejada. Also inside is the more mature man who doesn’t feel the need to fling household objects when that same player repeatedly fails in ‘clutch situations.’
Except for his ludicrous philosophies on bunting (Derek defends his position in an Amazon E-Book called ‘Hall of Famers can bunt, too.’ Currently on sale for seventy-four cents) Jeter’s mistakes barely register with me emotionally. It’s a strange detachment, considering my high expectations for the other Yankees.
I was similarly unmoved by Bernie Williams’ impression of a statue for the last couple of years of his career. (And Mariano Rivera? Forget it. He could be throwing low fifties gas at the age of eighty and I would still want him on the mound for the last three outs.)
Williams’ decline as a player began almost immediately after injuring his knee during the 2003 season. From that point forward, he became, almost immediately, a liability, except as a right-handed hitter of fastballs. Bernie could probably still crush one of those, especially from the recently retired Arthur Rhodes. Bernie’s struggles in 2003 were mitigated by the continued emergence of Alfonso Soriano, the slugging of Jason Giambi, and a characteristically strong effort from Jeter. Bernie also slaughtered the baseball during the 2003 World Series, especially at cavernous Pro Player Stadium, where an exciting bid to tie game five against Braden Looper died on the warning track. The lasting image of his season was not one of failure, which obscured the cold reality of his decline.
By 2004, Bernie had become a part-time centerfielder, and truthfully, should have probably been benched in favor of Kenny Lofton. Alex Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield had arrived, and Williams slipped into the shadows, contributing offensively in 2004 before totally free-falling in ’05, when, at the outset, the Yankees inexplicably expected him to once again assume full-time defensive responsibilities. Bernie was a role player forced to step up due to injuries by 2006, his final season. Though his disintegration had been traumatic for hardcore fans, it was hardly front-page news, not compared to whether Jeter and A-Rod were still B.F.F. The graceful Bernie Williams had gone from a switch-hitting, World Series winning,.900 .OPS compiling, thank God we resigned him, guitar-playing monster to a shadow. Sea changes in baseball are often that violent. The pastoral pace of the game belies sudden shifts in fortune. It’s a gentle riptide. When Bernie Williams was pulled under, the type of hysteria capable of temporarily distorting our perceptions was mostly avoided, aside from the brief drama of whether he would accept a minor league invitation to camp in 2007. I was sure a similar situation involving Jeter would play out differently.
Before the predictably difficult negotiating sessions for a new contract, featuring twists and turns splashed on the backs of papers from SoHo (not Luis) to Jersey, there was Derek Jeter’s 2010 season, which was the worst of his career. His .OPS was .710, a career low by over sixty points. His batting average plunged to .270, and on base to .340. Recent improvements to his defensive metrics proved unsustainable. The season paled in comparison even to a disappointing 2008, which had been partially affected by a lingering hand injury. There was never a doubt that Jeter would resign with the Yankees, but debate raged among fans and analysts about the potential length of his new contract. He was eventually inked through 2014.
Jeter’s 2009 season had been triumphant, a flashback to prime form. His on-base percentage had never been higher, except in 1999 and 2000. The Yankees won the World Series. In 2010,Jeter crashed after a fast start. By August, he was getting jammed on pitches he used to easily pull with authority, and grounding out weakly on outside fastballs that had been previously been shot down the line in right for extra bases. The Yankees, as a club, ran into problems in the defining months of 2010. Phil Hughes flamed out after a promising beginning to his season. Andy Pettitte pitched sparingly after injuring his groin. A.J. Burnett certified his status as an enigma, and Javier Vazquez earned his status as a two-time exile. The Yankees appeared vulnerable as the playoffs began, but seemed to regain their footing while drubbing the Twins in round one, proving once and for all the fallacy of due theory. They were dominated by Texas in the ALCS, however, despite winning two games. The team had been fun to watch, but appeared worn out by the curtain’s close. They resembled Jeter.
The immediate future was mysterious. The Yankees’ had an obvious need for starting pitching depth, but Andy Pettitte retired, and Cliff Lee returned to the Phillies during the offseason. The Yankees would lean heavily on the offense in 2011, and, by natural extension, Jeter. The 2009 Yankees were a superb lineup, not even counting the shortstop with an .871 .OPS. Throw that number in the mix, and the output becomes terrifying. The 2011 Yankees didn’t necessarily need a Jeter operating on that elevated level, but an approximate was certainly welcome. With number two starter Phil Hughes struggling in April, the relatively unknown Ivan Nova being relied upon, and Freddy Garcia throwing moonshine balls, the need for a special offense in 2011, and by proxy, an effective Jeter, appeared dire.
Three thousand hits. The chase was afoot. And Derek would need his legs, considering the parade of choppers he beat into infields across America through the early months of 2011.
I would sit patiently on my couch, as Jeter searched for his swing, repeatedly failing to pick up runners in scoring position, striking out against hard throwing relievers, getting the bat knocked out of his hands by sinker slider fourth starter types. By June, the contract extension was inching closer to disaster territory. Jeter would probably be dropped in the batting order. The Yankees were staying in contention, despite his struggles. Granderson and Cano were carrying the torch. Freddy Garcia was getting outs, somehow. The Yankees were in the race. Maybe Jeter’s fall wouldn’t be the contrived controversy I anticipated. In a small, bizarre, and very real way, this bummed me out.
Jeter went on the disabled list. The Yankees played better without him. It was surreal to see. Derek Jeter, the guy you didn’t even bother pretending to be while playing stickball with your friends growing up, because it was just too easy, too easy like winning four World Championships and the Series MVP against the Mets, too easy, too perfect, too beyond us. In 2011, the stickball games were over, and a dude named Eduardo Nunez was outplaying our former hero. Had the riptide claimed another great player?
Jeter did record hit number three thousand, after returning from the disabled list. It was a home run against David Price. He had five hits that afternoon, including the game winner. The moment felt nostalgic while it was in progress. I emotionally steeled myself for all the ground ball outs waiting to be born.
But Jeter kept hitting.
Jeter hit like his old self. He hit like rust was some kind of unrealistic fantasy, instead of his new contract. He hit enough to reach the aesthetically pleasing plateau of .297 by the end of the season. Batting average is a flawed stat. But .297 and Derek Jeter went along together just fine. Much better than .270. As Jeter regained his game, the Yankees made their move on Boston. The concern about Adrian Gonzalez and the Sox owning the A.L. East for multiple seasons? By the end of the year, that seemed more unrealistic than Eduardo Nunez becoming the starting shortstop for the New York Yankees.
Yes, Yankees fans could be arrogant, totally spoiled, for a while longer. It had all been so unrealistic. All that talent coming together. The evolutionary, offense first shortstop. The smooth, switch-hitting centerfielder. The best closer ever. A-Rod switching to third? Really? Winning and winning and winning. All a dream, right? And I guess I can’t get mad at Jeter because it would be an acknowledgement that the dream will end, like all dreams do. That my favorite players will age. And fail. And lose. And the Yankees will be just another team.
I was at the game last night, against the Angels. Jeter homered. Off a lefty. A laser shot into the first or second row of the right field seats. My brother and I were cheering, and while watching the replay, agreed that Jeter hadn’t seemed this smooth mechanically since 2009. As of this morning, he’s hitting .361 with a .923 .OPS. You don’t keep track of stats in April, unless you like them.
I guess being a fan, watching a game, getting that engaged in such an abstract notion like competitive sports, is kind of like dreaming. And Derek Jeter is the type of player who makes the dream last a little longer. Bernie was, too. Our dreams usually don’t have endings. We just wake up. Baseball is a hard game. Not yet, says Jeter, with every hit.
Not yet.
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Yankees.com: Jeter’s homer helps Yankees outslug Angels
NEW YORK—Derek Jeter cracked a three-run homer and Ivan Nova turned in six effective innings for the victory as the Yankees defeated the Angels, 11-5, on Sunday at Yankee Stadium.
Mark Teixeira had two hits, including a run-scoring double, as part of a four-run third inning that sent Angels starter Jerome Williams to an early exit.
Jeter’s second blast of the year was a line drive into the right-field seats off Hisanori Takahashi in the fourth inning, opening up a seven-run lead and providing Nova with a large cushion to cruise toward his second victory of the year.
The Angels made it a three-run game by the seventh, when Albert Pujols knocked in a run with a single facing an ineffective Rafael Soriano, but David Robertson bailed the Yankees out of a bases-loaded jam to escape the inning.
It’s nice when the Yankee offense graces us with their presence, isn’t it? Derek Jeter can’t carry this team alone all season.
Nova’s final line doesn’t look all that great, but I thought he pitched pretty well over most of the game. He continued to show the separation in his walks and strikeouts that are an indication that he’s not pitching over his head with 2 BB and 8 K, but he gave up 2 HRs and 4 runs so it was a mixed outing.
The Yankees have won 5 of 6 after starting the year 0 for 3 against the juggernaut Rays. The schadenfreude-lover in me also is happy that the Angels weren’t able to leave this series feeling they’ve “turned their season around” and that Albert Pujols didn’t really break out. I still think they’re a good team and will be in contention until the end of the year, but let that start after tonight.
A 5-4 record feels meh, but it’s about where we should have realistically expected them to be at this point. The home series against the Twins starting tomorrow seems like a good opportunity to try and move ahead of those expectations.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
2012 Yankee Position Player WAR through April 11
I’m just goofing around with my spreadsheets for 2012 and figured I’d post this. I’ve decided that this year I’m going to just use Fangraphs’ data for everything except defense since I don’t like using UZR as the sole determination of a player’s defense. I’ll still keep my own set of numbers as a sanity check in case I start having questions about what Fangraphs says, but I don’t generally have much of an issue with their position player valuations. I’ll still do my own pitching valuation.
| name | team | lg | pos | pa | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | so | gdp | sb | cs | avg | obp | slg | woba | avg_def | war |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | AL | SS | 30 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .370 | .414 | .556 | .403 | -0.2 | 2.1 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | AL | RF | 30 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .208 | .367 | .542 | .392 | -0.5 | 1.6 |
| Eduardo Nunez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .500 | .452 | -0.2 | 0.7 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | AL | LF | 19 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .353 | .389 | .353 | .346 | -0.1 | 0.5 |
| Andruw Jones | Yankees | AL | LF | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .286 | .333 | .714 | .409 | -0.2 | 0.5 |
| Russell Martin | Yankees | AL | C | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .455 | .200 | .338 | -0.3 | 0.3 |
| Eric Chavez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .500 | .440 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Raul Ibanez | Yankees | AL | RF | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .200 | .278 | .467 | .322 | -0.1 | 0.2 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .174 | .345 | .261 | .299 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | AL | 1B | 29 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .310 | .280 | .273 | 0.1 | -0.6 |
| Chris Stewart | Yankees | AL | C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0.0 | -0.7 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | AL | CF | 29 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .310 | .440 | .315 | -1.1 | -0.8 |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | AL | 2B | 30 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .300 | .357 | .290 | -0.7 | -1.0 |
woba: Weighted on-base average
avg_def: Average of DRS, UZR and ZR
war: wins above replacement (using Fangraphs’ offensive WAR plus baserunning with avg_def)
So the Yankees should DFA Mark Teixeira, Chris Stewart, Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano apparently. A bit surprised to see Cano at the bottom of the list, although it appears to be a defense thing.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Yankees.com; Ibanez ends drama as Yanks prevail in 12
BALTIMORE—Raul Ibanez provided the Yankees with the big hit that they’d been searching for all night, delivering a go-ahead ground-rule double that powered a 5-4 victory over the Orioles in 12 innings on Tuesday at Camden Yards.
I didn’t think Joe Girardi managed this game all that well, but I’m glad the team won. I didn’t really have a problem with using Boone Logan to start the ninth, particularly since he was on a short leash and got pulled as soon as the first batter reached. My primary beef was the whole sequence in the top of the 11th. After Russell Martin walked to lead off the inning, Girardi pinch-ran for him with Eduardo Nunez. The benefit to this is getting a stolen base threat into the game. Instead, Girardi had left-handed hitting Brett Gardner bunt Nunez to second against a RHP so that Derek Jeter could try to drive him in with the platoon disadvantage. This also meant that the next time Martin’s spot came up, it’d be Chris Stewart in his spot. It turned out to not matter, but I think Girardi would be better off not trying to be so active when an opportunity presents itself.
Of course if one of the Yankees #4 or #5 or #6 hitters could have gotten a hit in the fifty times they came up with a chance to drive in a runner it would have been a non-issue.
On the plus side, David Phelps was nails after a crappy outing by Freddy Garcia, as was Cory Wade. Raul Ibanez’s big hit was obviously cool, and Mariano Rivera closed it out with a perfect 12th inning, lowering his ERA to 7.71. The Yankees have a chance to head home at .500 if they can win tomorrow behind CC Sabathia, and after starting out 0-3 you can’t ask for more than that.
Monday, April 9, 2012
Yankees.com: Jeter’s four hits set up Yankees’ first win
BALTIMORE—Derek Jeter had four hits and Andruw Jones homered to support Ivan Nova’s effort as the Yankees posted their first victory of the season on Monday, defeating the Orioles, 6-2, at Camden Yards.
Hoping to avoid their first 0-4 start since 1973, the Yankees rode seven solid innings from Nova, who outpitched Baltimore counterpart Brian Matusz and washed away the remnants of an unsuccessful spring.
I generally look at three numbers after every Nova start. Runs, walks and strikeouts. When he allows two runs, walks none and strikes out seven, I’m seeing the evidence I need to see to think that Nova’s improvement over the last season or so is legitimate and sustainable. He hit 96 mph and had great breaking stuff tonight, and threw the best game a Yankee starter has thrown this year.
Friday, April 6, 2012
Looking Ahead To 2012 - Team Wrap Up
Opening Day is here, which means we can forget about projections and start complaining about games that count.
We’ve looked at the projections for most of the key players on the Yankees Opening Day roster, with apologies to Chris Stewart.
Russell Martin
Mark Teixeira
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Eduardo Nun-E-z
The Speedy Brett Gardner
Curtis Granderson
Nick Swisher
Andruw Jones and Jesus Montero Raul Ibanez
CC Sabathia
Hiroki Kuroda
Phil Hughes
Michael Pineda
Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia
$36M and a lost draft pick
David Robertson
Booooone Logan and Clay Rapada
Cory Wade and David Phelps
Mariano F’ing Rivera
So now I try to assemble that into a team projection. I’ll show the depth charts I used for the 2012 MLB Projection Blowout with CAIRO.
| order | player | position | pa | outs | avg/obp/slg | woba | br | def |
| 1 | Derek Jeter | SS | 575 | 392 | .286/.345/.384 | .325 | 69 | -7 |
| 2 | Curtis Granderson | CF | 625 | 421 | .263/.351/.502 | .366 | 98 | 0 |
| 3 | Mark Teixeira | 1B | 675 | 447 | .263/.359/.493 | .368 | 105 | 4 |
| 4 | Robinson Cano | 2B | 675 | 460 | .303/.352/.504 | .368 | 105 | 0 |
| 5 | Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 450 | 300 | .273/.363/.474 | .365 | 68 | 0 |
| 6 | Nick Swisher | RF | 625 | 418 | .259/.356/.455 | .354 | 90 | 4 |
| 7 | Raul Ibanez | DH | 400 | 279 | .266/.329/.458 | .340 | 55 | 0 |
| 8 | Russell Martin | C | 500 | 346 | .253/.347/.383 | .329 | 60 | 0 |
| 9 | Brett Gardner | LF | 600 | 410 | .262/.347/.371 | .324 | 76 | 16 |
| Starters | 5125 | 3473 | .271/.351/.449 | .350 | 726 | 18 | ||
| bench | player | position | pa | outs | avg/obp/slg | woba | br | def |
| Eduardo Nunez | IF | 375 | 271 | .262/.315/.392 | .310 | 44 | -6 | |
| Andruw Jones | OF | 275 | 194 | .221/.318/.413 | .321 | 34 | 0 | |
| Eric Chavez | 3B | 250 | 182 | .240/.296/.356 | .288 | 24 | 0 | |
| Chris Stewart | C | 100 | 72 | .228/.299/.328 | .283 | 9 | 0 | |
| Francisco Cervelli | C | 100 | 70 | .264/.328/.373 | .312 | 11 | 0 | |
| Ramiro Pena | IF | 50 | 37 | .240/.290/.340 | .280 | 5 | 0 | |
| Brandon Laird | 1B/3B | 40 | 29 | .247/.292/.407 | .304 | 4 | 0 | |
| Chris Dickerson | OF | 0 | 0 | .243/.321/.369 | .308 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jack Cust | DH | 0 | 0 | .243/.362/.420 | .349 | 0 | 0 | |
| Russell Branyan | DH | 0 | 0 | .240/.330/.458 | .341 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dewayne Wise | OF | 0 | 0 | .243/.286/.406 | .298 | 0 | 0 | |
| David Adams | 2B | 0 | 0 | .244/.311/.377 | .305 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bench | 1190 | 855 | .244/.309/.381 | .304 | 131 | -6 | ||
| Team | 6315 | 4328 | .266/.343/.436 | .341 | 857 | 12 |
woba: Weighted on-base average
br: Linear weights batting runs
def: Estimated runs saved compared to average using an average of zone rating, DRS, UZR and Totalzone
The biggest area of concern for the position players is probably Alex Rodriguez’s health. A weighted average of his past four years puts him at 459 PA. I’m also not particularly optimistic that Raul Ibanez can hit that projected line, although as half of a platoon it’s more feasible. To a lesser extent the team’s overall health is probably a concern, although in my mind it’s not a huge one. Losing Curtis Granderson or Robinson Cano for an extensive period of time wouldn’t be good since they’re probably the two most valuable position players on the team right now, but you can say that for any team losing one or both of their top two position players.
Regarding Chris Stewart vs. Francisco Cervelli, it’s a clear offensive downgrade. The question is how defense changes things. If we use Cervelli’s 2011 playing time as an estimate for the 2012 backup catchers, you’re looking at something like 137 PA. Let’s round that up to 200 PA in case Russell Martin misses some more time than expected.
200 PA of Cervelli projects to be worth 22 runs. For Stewart, 200 PA projects to be worth about 18 runs. As far as defense, I’m going to ignore pitch framing and blocking and just compare the difference between them in SB/CS. In their careers, that looks like this:
| player | inn | sb | cs | sba | cs% |
| Cervelli | 1295 | 93 | 23 | 116 | 19.8% |
| Stewart | 590 | 44 | 28 | 72 | 38.9% |
Runners may not run as frequently against Stewart if teams have more respect for his arm than they do for Cervelli’s, although runners have attempted 0.12 steals per inning vs. Stewart compared to 0.09 steals per innings vs. Cervelli in their respective careers. I’ll split the difference, which means 42 stolen base attempts over 400 innings. Using the linear weights values for SB/CS gives us this.
| player | inn | sb | cs | sba | cs% | rv |
| Cervelli | 400 | 34 | 8 | 42 | 19.8% | 4 |
| Stewart | 400 | 26 | 16 | 42 | 38.9% | -1 |
rv: linear weights run value of SB/CS.
A positive run value means more runs for the team stealing bases, so the difference between Stewart and Cervelli there effectively nullifies Cervelli’s offensive edge. Whether other factors of catcher defense change things beyond that, I have no idea.
Back to the rest of the team, the Yankees actually project to score more runs than any other team in baseball according to the aggregate projections I ran, although CAIRO sees them about nine runs behind Boston. They may be able to pick up a few more runs if they swap out Ibanez for Russell Branyan and/or Jack Cust at some point.
Most of the defense projects as average, aside from Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher, Brett Gardner and Nun-E. Overall they project about 12 runs better than average.
Of course, 90% of the game is pitching, so how’s that look?
| Role | Player | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP |
| SP1 | CC Sabathia | 220 | 220 | 91 | 82 | 19 | 64 | 203 | 3.57 | 3.24 | 3.23 |
| SP2 | Hiroki Kuroda | 190 | 190 | 91 | 80 | 21 | 44 | 126 | 4.57 | 4.01 | 3.92 |
| SP3 | Michael Pineda | 150 | 150 | 82 | 76 | 21 | 53 | 157 | 4.37 | 4.06 | 3.79 |
| SP4 | Ivan Nova | 150 | 150 | 78 | 72 | 16 | 57 | 89 | 4.93 | 4.50 | 4.52 |
| SP5 | Phil Hughes | 150 | 150 | 75 | 73 | 19 | 50 | 114 | 4.63 | 4.49 | 4.26 |
| SP6 | Andy Pettitte | 110 | 110 | 51 | 47 | 11 | 35 | 76 | 4.33 | 4.01 | 4.00 |
| SP7 | Freddy Garcia | 40 | 40 | 18 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 4.55 | 4.28 | 4.28 |
| SP8 | Manny Banuelos | 20 | 20 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 6.20 | 5.72 | 5.43 |
| SP9 | Dellin Betances | 20 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 6.51 | 6.02 | 5.75 |
| SP10 | Adam Warren | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.41 | 5.00 | 4.72 |
| Starters | Total | 1050 | 1050 | 510 | 469 | 117 | 335 | 813 | 4.38 | 4.02 | 3.98 |
| Role | Player | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP |
| CL | Mariano Rivera | 65 | 65 | 25 | 23 | 5 | 16 | 77 | 2.63 | 2.46 | 2.71 |
| SU | David Robertson | 70 | 70 | 28 | 26 | 5 | 43 | 109 | 2.96 | 2.77 | 2.84 |
| SU | Rafael Soriano | 60 | 60 | 31 | 29 | 8 | 26 | 69 | 3.82 | 3.60 | 3.64 |
| MR | Boone Logan | 50 | 50 | 23 | 20 | 5 | 19 | 46 | 4.29 | 3.76 | 3.71 |
| MR | Cory Wade | 40 | 40 | 20 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 28 | 4.44 | 4.08 | 4.31 |
| MR | Clay Rapada | 50 | 50 | 26 | 24 | 5 | 23 | 39 | 4.63 | 4.35 | 4.25 |
| LR | David Phelps | 50 | 50 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 14 | 24 | 5.58 | 5.16 | 4.88 |
| LR | D.J. Mitchell | 23 | 23 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 5.99 | 5.54 | 5.26 |
| Relievers | Total | 408 | 408 | 191 | 177 | 43 | 161 | 403 | 4.21 | 3.90 | 3.75 |
| Team | Total | 1458 | 1458 | 701 | 646 | 160 | 496 | 1216 | 4.33 | 3.99 | 3.91 |
Assigning innings to the staff was a bit trickier this year. The Yankees have a whole bunch of guys who could pitch in the middle/back of the rotation and injuries/circumstances may have a greater say in that than merit. There’s not a ton of difference in the projections of starters 2-7, although it’s probably fair to wonder how accurate projecting Andy Pettitte will be after a year off. But really, you can juggle the innings around between Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes and Freddy Garcia and probably not see a big difference. CC Sabathia is really the one starter the Yankees can’t afford to lose for any appreciable amount of time.
As far as the pen, it looked better before Joba Chamberlain got hurt. There’s still probably not an end-game you’d take over Mariano Rivera/David Robertson, and for all the crap I spew about the Soriano signing he should be solid, but an injury to either Mo or Robertson suddenly makes it look a bit thin. David Aardsma may be able to pitch at some point, but that’s uncertain.
So, adding this up, this is what CAIRO says.
| RS | 848 |
| Def | 12 |
| RA | 701 |
| wpct | .598 |
| p162 | 97 |
848 runs scored and 701 runs allowed plus 12 runs saved compared to average puts the Yankees at a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .598, which is equivalent to a 97 win team. CAIRO projected them at 96 in the projection blowout, which is probably a strength of schedule thing.
The other projections I ran say:
Marcel: 92
Oliver: 94
PECOTA: 95
ZiPS: 95
Average: 94
Clay Davenport has them at 93, the official version of Oliver has them at 96 and the official version of PECOTA has them at 94 wins.
I am fairly certain about one thing in baseball this year. The best team in the American League will be the best team in baseball. I’m not quite as certain that the Yankees are that team. They project to be, but Texas has represented the AL in the last two World Series (shamefully, but still…) and if Yu Darvish is a front-line MLB starting pitcher(I think he is), it’s not a stretch to see them as the best team in the league. If the Angels stop dicking around with Vernon Wells and put Mike Trout in their outfield they also have a chance to be the best team in the league, plus they’ll sweep the Yankees in the regular season even if they’re not. Detroit’s defense looks like a problem to me, and while they should score plenty of runs, I have a hard time seeing them as being better than all three of the Rangers, Angels, and Yankees. Of course, we also have the two chief rivals in the AL East to worry about. It wouldn’t take much in the way of good fortune for Boston/Tampa Bay or bad fortune for the Yankees to drop the Yanks into third place.
Still, it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Yankees fail to qualify for the postseason. I suppose losing any of CC Sabathia, Robinson Cano or Curtis Granderson for an extended period of time would be one such scenario.
According to the average team projections I ran their probability of winning at least the second wild card at 82.5%, which is the highest in baseball and 7% ahead of Texas who rank second. CAIRO likes the Yankees even more than that at 83.5%, but that ranks second to Texas’s 84.1%. On average, it took 92 wins to win the first AL wild card and 89 wins to get the second one, but these are the Yankees. Division or bust! Wild cards are for losers!
Since rilkefan asked about how these projections have fared in the past, I did a quick little chart. This compares the average of however many projections I ran that year to what the Yankees actually did.
| Year | Projected | Actual | Difference |
| 2005 | 94 | 95 | 1 |
| 2006 | 90 | 97 | 7 |
| 2007 | 95 | 94 | -1 |
| 2008 | 95 | 89 | -6 |
| 2009 | 96 | 103 | 7 |
| 2010 | 96 | 95 | -1 |
| 2011 | 92 | 97 | 5 |
| average | 94 | 95.7 | 1.7 |
| rms | 4.8 |
So the Yankees have been a bit less than two wins better than projected on average since I began running these in 2005. The methodology has changed, I think for the better, but it’s still limited. But I’m pretty comfortable the Yankees will be one of the best teams in baseball. That’s really all you can ask for as a fan when the season starts, right?
Yay Opening Day!
Friday, March 16, 2012
TGS NY: Derek Jeter out with calf injury
TAMPA, Fla.—New York Yankees captain Derek Jeter has an injured left calf that will keep him out of spring training until at least next week.
Jeter, who will turn 38 in June, missed nearly a month last season in his pursuit of 3,000 hits with an injury to his right calf.
“My alarm was he hurt his calf last year and even though it is the other calf, we are going to be smart about this,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “I told him, ‘Don’t even go outside today.’ I think he could hit or take BP, but just let it calm down.”
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
10 Years of YES: Jeter’s dive
10 Years of YES remembers “one of the greatest games you’ll ever see” on the YES Network, and Derek Jeter’ memorable dive into the stands.
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It’s always fun to look back at this play, because I think that the July 1, 2004 game is one of the best regular season games I’ve ever seen. Jeter’s play was a good one, perhaps overrated a bit due to context, but I think A-Rod’s double play in the 11th was the play of the game, and of course we had Miguel Cairo’s two-out clutch double that scored Ruben Sierra from first to tie the game in the bottom of the 13th.
You also had Gary Sheffield moved to 3B for the first time in 11 years, You had Brad Halsey matching Pedro Martinez pitch for pitch, you had a rare scoreless appearance by Felix “The Run Fairy™” Heredia, and a game-winning hit from John Flaherty who was pinch-hitting for Tanyon Sturtze and was the last player on the bench. Just a fun game all around.
Monday, March 12, 2012
FoxSports: Jeter, Rivera inseparable? Only seems so
Jeter and Rivera have starred in New York for so long that it’s easy to forget they were prospects once, too. Between now and Opening Day, promising players in 30 camps will be summoned to managers’ offices and told that they must go back to the minor leagues.
Jeter and Rivera received the same news after the Yankees’ 10-7 victory over the Seattle Mariners on June 11, 1995. And they handled it with the traits — professionalism and class — that have defined their careers ever since.
“That wasn’t a happy day for us,” Rivera recalled Sunday before pitching a 1-2-3 fourth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies in his spring debut. “It was tough. When you get sent down, you think about it. Your mind starts wandering. We were down. I was down. But that went away after we got where we were supposed to go, with Columbus, and started working. I needed to get my shoulder right. He worked on his stuff. A few weeks later, I was up again.
“Back then, if you had to work on something, The Boss would send you down in a heartbeat. He didn’t mess around.”
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Looking Ahead to 2012 - Eduardo Nunez
2011
Although Eduardo Nunez was often mentioned as a prospect with some upside, it was based primarily on his tools. With a career minor league line of .274/.318/.369 and with defense that could charitably described as erratic, I didn’t think he was much of one.
However, Nunez put up a .265/.313/.385 line in 2011 to put his major league career line at .267/.314/.382. Also worth nothing is that on August 9, Nunez was hitting .279/.333/.411 with a perfectly reasonable .297 BABIP (indicating he wasn’t particularly lucky). He fell in the tank after that, hitting .241/.280/.339 with a .274 BABIP despite having the same basic batted ball profile. He did lose some of that plate discipline as his walk rate dropped and his K rate went up, but I think he hit into some bad luck at the end of the season.
Here’s something to consider with Nunez.
Minor Leagues: 2772 PA, 156 BB, 350 K.
Major Leagues: 391 PA, 25 BB, 39 K.
In his minor league career Nunez walked in 5.6% of his PA and struck out in 12.6%. In the majors he’s walked in 6.4% of his PA and struck out in 10.0%. Changes in walk rate and strikeout rate tend to stabilize more quickly than changes in other statistics. This could be evidence of genuine development that gives him a chance to provide better offense than you might expect given his track record to date. Control of the strike zone is one of the most important parts of being a good MLB player, for hitters and pitchers.
I don’t know if Nunez will ever hit well enough to be a starting infielder, but I think he has the potential to do it.
Unfortunately, defense is part of the equation, and Nunez had a horrific defensive season. I’ll get into that shortly.
Offensive Projections
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAR |
| cairo | 281 | 256 | 34 | 67 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 20 | 35 | 6 | 1 | .262 | .319 | .392 | .310 | 32 | 74 | 9 |
| davenport | 182 | 171 | 23 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 8 | 1 | .287 | .337 | .409 | .326 | 21 | 77 | 7 |
| marcel | 374 | 341 | 46 | 92 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 38 | 19 | 5 | 27 | 48 | 8 | 1 | .270 | .324 | .396 | .315 | 44 | 76 | 13 |
| oliver | 490 | 455 | 56 | 125 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 46 | 17 | 6 | 26 | 60 | 13 | 2 | .275 | .315 | .374 | .302 | 51 | 67 | 11 |
| pecota | 298 | 281 | 34 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 16 | 39 | 6 | 1 | .279 | .323 | .389 | .313 | 34 | 73 | 10 |
| zips | 510 | 480 | 57 | 131 | 23 | 2 | 8 | 48 | 21 | 7 | 26 | 64 | 13 | 2 | .273 | .315 | .379 | .305 | 54 | 69 | 13 |
| average | 356 | 324 | 43 | 85 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 21 | 45 | 10 | 1 | .262 | .306 | .398 | .312 | 37 | 68 | 8 |
| 2011 | 338 | 309 | 38 | 82 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 22 | 6 | 22 | 37 | 6 | 0 | .265 | .308 | .385 | .303 | 38 | 72 | 10 |
| 2011 AL | 338 | 303 | 40 | 78 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 27 | 61 | 7 | 3 | .258 | .323 | .408 | .319 | 39 | 75 | |
| 338 | 309 | 38 | 158 | 30 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 22 | 6 | 22 | 37 | 6 | 0 | .511 | .600 | .670 |
For more information about the projections above, you can read the first post in this series.
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average line for his 2011 PA as frames of reference. I haven’t adjusted league average for DNYS, so mentally adjust that upwards to account for the way it boosts offense.
I’m treating Nunez as a 3B here since that was the position he played the most last year. Add 2-3 runs to those BRAR if he’s a SS instead.
Nunez didn’t hit quite as well as the average AL hitter, but his stolen bases at a good percentage pushed him pretty close to average, although a bit less than that once you dock him for DNYS. The projections expect him to be roughly the same in 2012, with a bit more pop. If he was really unlucky over the last two months of the year he could be a bit better than that. How much better?
CAIRO Percentiles Forecast
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAR |
| 80% | 428 | 390 | 61 | 115 | 28 | 4 | 12 | 50 | 26 | 3 | 38 | 44 | 7 | 3 | .294 | .366 | .476 | .367 | 67 | 102 | 33 |
| 65% | 323 | 294 | 42 | 82 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 18 | 3 | 26 | 37 | 5 | 1 | .278 | .343 | .434 | .338 | 44 | 88 | 18 |
| Baseline | 281 | 256 | 34 | 67 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 20 | 35 | 6 | 1 | .262 | .319 | .392 | .310 | 32 | 74 | 9 |
| 35% | 253 | 230 | 28 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 10 | 4 | 16 | 34 | 7 | 1 | .246 | .298 | .351 | .285 | 23 | 60 | 3 |
| 20% | 225 | 204 | 22 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 33 | 7 | 1 | .230 | .276 | .309 | .259 | 16 | 46 | -2 |
Nunez isn’t that young, so he may not have much time to left to get better. I do think the 65% forecast is within his reach although it’s a bit higher than the line he had through August 9.
Base Running
| Year | gaR | aaR | haR | oaR | SBR | BRR |
| 2008 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2009 | -2.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| 2010 | -0.9 | 1.7 | 1.4 | -0.8 | 0.67 | 2.0 |
| 2011 | 0.5 | -0.4 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.72 | 0.5 |
| Projection | -0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
gaR:base running runs above average on ground ball outs
aaR:base running runs above average on fly ball outs
haR:base running runs above average on hits
oaR:base running runs above average on wild pitches/passed balls
SBR: stolen base runs above average
These numbers include his minor league performance in 2009 and I’m not sure how useful those are, but Nunez looks like he can add some value on the bases.
Defense
And now we come to the elephant in the room. Here’s some of the defensive data we have for Nunez in 2011.
| Pos | G | GS | CH | INN | PO | A | E | DP | ZR | DRS | UZR | TZ | avg | avg/150 |
| 2B | 16 | 9 | 36 | 82.0 | 12 | 28 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 2 | -1 | -7 | -2 | -30 |
| 3B | 40 | 33 | 67 | 285.3 | 22 | 46 | 6 | 7 | -2 | -5 | -6 | -4 | -4 | -21 |
| SS | 50 | 39 | 129 | 386.3 | 46 | 101 | 14 | 17 | -7 | -10 | -7 | -7 | -8 | -28 |
DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating
Nunez’s issue isn’t range, which appears to be pretty good, or his arm strength, which also appears to be quite good.. It’s what happens after he gets to the ball. He made 20 errors last year. 12 were fielding errors and 8 were throwing errors. I don’t know how telling it is, but Nunez saw about .334 chances per inning at shortstop compared to Derek Jeter’s .324. Over a full season that would mean Nunez would have gotten 14 more chances. That may be an indication that he gets to more balls, but it could also just be that he happened to be playing when conditions made more balls go to shortstop, be it who was pitching, who was hitting, etc.,
It’s commonly said that you can’t teach range but you can coach away errors. I don’t know if that will work with Nunez, but who knows? Here are his defensive projections.
| pos | Inn | DRS | UZR | TZ | ZR | avg | |
| 3B | 195 | -3 | -4 | -2 | -2 | -2 | |
| 2B | 195 | 1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | |
| SS | 195 | -4 | -1 | -2 | -1 | -1 | |
| Total | 586 | -7 | -5 | -4 | -3 | -5 |
Regression towards the mean is Nunez’s friend here.
Value
| Projection | RAA | Rep | Pos | RAR | BRR | Def | WAR |
| cairo | -1 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 0.4 | -4 | 0.6 |
| marcel | 0 | 12 | 1 | 13 | 0.4 | -4 | 1.0 |
| oliver | -6 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 0.4 | -4 | 0.8 |
| pecota | -1 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 0.4 | -4 | 0.6 |
| zips | -5 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 0.4 | -4 | 1.0 |
| average | -4 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 0.4 | -4 | 0.5 |
| 2011 | -1 | 11 | 1 | 10 | -0.3 | -9 | 0.1 |
Rep: Replacement level adjustment (22 runs per 700 PA pro-rated to projected PA)
Pos: Position-adjustment
RAR: Runs above replacement (Rep + Pos)
BRR: Base running runs (does not include SB)
Def: Projected runs saved defensively
WAR: Wins above replacement (RAR + BRR + Def) divided by 10
It really comes down to the glove. Nunez can probably be about a 1.0 WAR player as a backup infielder if he can play average defense. But he probably can’t, so he probably won’t be.
I like Nun-E, even though I get frustrated by his defense. While I obviously hope the Yankees get healthy years out of all of their infielders and he doesn’t get to play much, I also don’t think that’s likely. So hopefully he can get those yips on defense cut down a bit and hit decently when given the chance. If by some miracle he can play an average defensive SS by 2013, he may be the best shortstop in the Yankee organization.
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Looking Ahead to 2012 - Derek Jeter
Today we’ll look at the multiple Gold Glove award-winning shortstop and captain of the Yankees.
2011
Jeter followed up his career-worst 2010 season by hitting .260/.324/.324 with a ground ball percentage of roughly 99.9999%* through June 13 before winding up on the disabled list with a strained calf. Jeter returned from the DL on July 4 and hit .331/.384/.447 to finish the season, flirting with .300 until the last day of the season. Oh, and he hit some round number milestone of some sort.
*estimated
Despite that hot finish to the season, Jeter didn’t really hit any better than he projected to overall heading into 2011.
| projection | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | HBP | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 |
| 2010 | 739 | 663 | 179 | 30 | 3 | 10 | 63 | 8 | 77 | .270 | .340 | .370 | .319 | 82 | 72 |
| avg 2011 proj | 607 | 543 | 154 | 23 | 2 | 11 | 52 | 5 | 65 | .283 | .351 | .394 | .332 | 73 | 78 |
| 2011 | 607 | 546 | 162 | 24 | 4 | 6 | 46 | 12 | 96 | .297 | .353 | .388 | .330 | 72 | 77 |
| delta | 3 | 8 | 1 | 2 | -5 | -6 | 7 | 31 | .013 | .002 | -.006 | -.002 | -1 | -1 |
He traded some walks and HRs for singles and HBP but the end result was a .297/.353/.388 line that was essentially the same as his average projected line of .283/.351/.394.
Offensive Projections
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAR |
| cairo | 581 | 519 | 82 | 149 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 56 | 16 | 5 | 46 | 83 | 14 | 6 | .286 | .347 | .384 | .325 | 67 | 75 | 25 |
| davenport | 560 | 510 | 72 | 147 | 27 | 2 | 9 | 54 | 14 | 4 | 46 | 73 | 13 | 4 | .288 | .354 | .402 | .336 | 69 | 80 | 25 |
| marcel | 577 | 518 | 79 | 147 | 23 | 2 | 9 | 54 | 16 | 5 | 47 | 83 | 13 | 5 | .284 | .347 | .388 | .327 | 68 | 76 | 25 |
| oliver | 635 | 574 | 73 | 162 | 25 | 3 | 8 | 60 | 14 | 5 | 49 | 85 | 17 | 5 | .282 | .342 | .378 | .321 | 71 | 73 | 24 |
| pecota | 694 | 632 | 82 | 180 | 28 | 3 | 9 | 66 | 18 | 6 | 56 | 106 | 16 | 6 | .285 | .351 | .382 | .328 | 81 | 76 | 30 |
| zips | 598 | 542 | 78 | 145 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 58 | 14 | 5 | 46 | 84 | 13 | 6 | .268 | .331 | .362 | .310 | 63 | 68 | 19 |
| average | 607 | 543 | 86 | 156 | 25 | 3 | 8 | 58 | 15 | 5 | 48 | 85 | 14 | 5 | .286 | .346 | .386 | .325 | 71 | 76 | 26 |
| 2011 | 607 | 546 | 84 | 162 | 24 | 4 | 6 | 61 | 16 | 6 | 46 | 81 | 10 | 6 | .297 | .353 | .388 | .330 | 72 | 77 | 27 |
| 2011 AL | 607 | 545 | 71 | 140 | 28 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 11 | 4 | 49 | 109 | 12 | 5 | .258 | .323 | .408 | .319 | 70 | 75 |
For more information about the projections above, you can read the first post in this series.
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average line for his 2011 PA as frames of reference. I haven’t adjusted league average for DNYS, so keep that in mind.
The projections expect Jeter to be roughly the same as he was in 2011, which is fine for a shortstop on offense. Unfortunately for Jeter, the algorithm that makes Yankees better in CAIRO hates Jeter so it makes him worse.
CAIRO Percentiles Forecast
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAR |
| 80% | 610 | 545 | 96 | 169 | 28 | 3 | 12 | 67 | 21 | 3 | 55 | 77 | 12 | 9 | .310 | .394 | .438 | .365 | 89 | 95 | 44 |
| 65% | 592 | 530 | 88 | 158 | 25 | 2 | 10 | 61 | 18 | 4 | 50 | 80 | 11 | 7 | .298 | .375 | .411 | .345 | 78 | 85 | 34 |
| Baseline | 581 | 519 | 82 | 149 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 56 | 16 | 5 | 46 | 83 | 14 | 6 | .286 | .356 | .384 | .325 | 67 | 75 | 25 |
| 35% | 522 | 467 | 70 | 128 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 47 | 12 | 5 | 38 | 78 | 14 | 6 | .274 | .341 | .356 | .308 | 54 | 67 | 15 |
| 20% | 464 | 416 | 58 | 109 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 9 | 5 | 31 | 73 | 14 | 7 | .263 | .327 | .329 | .291 | 41 | 58 | 7 |
It took a .390 BABIP after his return from the DL for Jeter to hit how he did to finish the year. I don’t think that’s sustainable over a full season, but I could see him hitting near .300. I fear his power is gone though and it ain’t coming back, so I don’t see him slugging much higher than that baseline.
Base Running
| Year | gaR | aaR | haR | oaR | SBR | BRR |
| 2008 | -0.8 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.67 | 2.3 |
| 2009 | -1.3 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | -0.35 | -0.7 |
| 2010 | 1.0 | 1.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 | 1.07 | 2.6 |
| 2011 | -2.0 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.1 | -0.21 | -2.5 |
| Projection | -0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
gaR:base running runs above average on ground ball outs
aaR:base running runs above average on fly ball outs
haR:base running runs above average on hits
oaR:base running runs above average on wild pitches/passed balls
SBR: stolen base runs above average
Jeter had the worst base running season of his career in 2011, but I don’t think that means we should expect him to be equally bad this year. It does probably mean that he’s at the point where he doesn’t really add extra value on the base paths.
Defense
It’s time for point/counterpoint.
Point: I could give you a bunch of fancy numbers, but if you people would take your heads out of your spreadsheets and watch the games you’d know that Jeter is a Gold Glove shortstop who makes spectacular plays all the time. Ballparking it, I’d say he’s like a +20 defender.
Counterpoint:
| pos | Inn | DRS | UZR | TZ | ZR | avg | |
| SS | 1204 | -11 | -3 | -7 | -8 | -7 |
DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating
Value
See if you can guess whether or not Jeter is overpaid relative to his on-field value before looking at the next chart. If you guess right, you get the satisfaction of being right.
| Projection | RAA | Rep | Pos | RAR | BRR | Def | WAR |
| cairo | 0 | 18 | 6 | 25 | -0.4 | -7 | 1.7 |
| marcel | 1 | 18 | 6 | 25 | -0.4 | -7 | 1.8 |
| oliver | -3 | 20 | 7 | 24 | -0.4 | -7 | 1.7 |
| pecota | 1 | 22 | 7 | 30 | -0.4 | -7 | 2.2 |
| zips | -7 | 19 | 6 | 19 | -0.4 | -7 | 1.1 |
| average | 1 | 19 | 7 | 26 | -0.4 | -7 | 1.9 |
| 2011 | 2 | 19 | 7 | 27 | -2.3 | -10 | 1.5 |
Rep: Replacement level adjustment (22 runs per 700 PA pro-rated to projected PA)
Pos: Position-adjustment
RAR: Runs above replacement (Rep + Pos)
BRR: Base running runs (does not include SB)
Def: Projected runs saved defensively
WAR: Wins above replacement (RAR + BRR + Def) divided by 10
Did you guess right?
Jeter projects to be roughly as good as he was last year this year offensively, so even if he is closer to -10 defensively than that projected -7 he’s probably still the best choice for Yankee SS in 2012. That being said, it is probably time to start thinking about who the next Yankee shortstop will be. If Jeter’s not replacement level now, he might be by this time next year.
I’d like to see Jeter get rested more frequently, particularly against RHP. I don’t really care about him batting leadoff against all pitching since the numbers say it doesn’t really matter.
I was goofing around with TGS’s implementation of Bill James’s Favorite Toy, which is a crude way to estimate a player’s career ending total in a particular stat. It says Jeter would end up with 3569 hits, which would rank him sixth all-time. That may be a little optimistic, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to see him getting the 227 hits he’ll need to crack the top 10 before hanging ‘em up, and that’d be pretty cool.
Thursday, February 23, 2012
NY Post: Yankees’ Rivera coy about early start
Monday, the 42-year-old Rivera dropped strong hints this will be his final season. At the minor league complex, Derek Jeter didn’t say anything to refute that and strongly indicated that Rivera has informed his longtime teammate of the decision.
I’ve been ignoring this story on the hope that it didn’t have any traction, but I fear it does.
Monday, February 13, 2012
NY Post: Ageless Jeter first at Yankees camp
Young shortstop Cito Culver follows Jeter everywhere. He takes ground balls alongside Jeter on a daily basis. Jeter is a baseball godsend for Culver.
“He’s very interested in learning, which is always good,’’ Jeter said of Culver, who was the Yankees’ top pick in 2010. “When I was a young player coming up, I wanted to learn as much as I could. He asks a lot of questions, works hard. He’s got a bright future.’’
The headline doesn’t really go with the article, which doesn’t pretend Jeter hasn’t lost anything to age.
Regardless, it’s an important article because it’s the first spring training puff piece of the year! Yay!
Monday, February 6, 2012
TGS NY: Is Brett leadoff hitter or caboose?
Jeter was the first Yankees batter of the game 96 times in 2011; in 49 of those games, he reached base in his first at-bat, either by hit or walk, and scored 17 times. Gardner was the first Yankee hitter in 57 games; he reached base in his first at-bat just 14 times, although he did come around to score 11 times.
Despite their difference in Wins Above Replacement—Jeter’s was 2.3, Gardner’s 5.1 according to FanGraphs, mostly because of his high defensive rating—Jeter was the winner of this WAR, and the discussion has hardly been raised this winter.
The Yankees’ best lineup last year seemed to be the one with Jeter leading off and Gardner hitting ninth.
And yet, there is a circumstance in which the Yankees might do better with Gardner batting first and Jeter second in 2012—when a right-hander is starting. In fact, that would probably cover close to two-thirds of the season.
Just like when this came up last year, I’m going to say it doesn’t really matter. Not if moving Brett Gardner to leadoff moves Derek Jeter to second instead of ninth. That doesn’t mean we can’t look at what the difference might be.
I just realized how close CAIRO’s projections for Jeter and Gardner are. Jeter’s projected to have a wOBA of .325 and Gardner’s at .324. Remember that I don’t include SB/CS in those numbers.
Regressed platoon splits would have Jeter at .348 vs. LHP and .317 vs. RHP. Gardner would be at .304 and .331 respectively.
The Yankees had 771 PA out of the leadoff spot in 2011 (compared to 624 at #9) and 64.8% of them came against RHP. If we assume a similar split in 2012, here’s how things would look.
| Role | PA |
| Leadoff vs. RHP | 500 |
| Leadoff vs. LHP | 271 |
| #9 vs. RHP | 404 |
| #9 vs. LHP | 220 |
Scenario #1: Jeter leads off against everyone and Gardner bats ninth against everyone.
| Role | PA | Player | wOBA |
| Leadoff | 771 | Jeter | .325 |
| #9 | 624 | Gardner | .324 |
| Total | 1395 | Overall | .325 |
Scenario #2: Jeter leads off vs. LHP, Gardner leads off vs. RHP.
| Role | PA | Player | wOBA |
| Leadoff vs. RHP | 500 | Gardner | .331 |
| Leadoff vs. LHP | 271 | Jeter | .348 |
| #9 vs. RHP | 404 | Jeter | .317 |
| #9 vs. LHP | 220 | Gardner | .304 |
| Total | 1395 | Overall | .326 |
A leadoff platoon that would move Jeter to ninth vs. RHP is the absolute optimal scenario. If the Yankees did this they would gain something like .001 wOBA points out of the lead off spot over a full season, which would be worth about a bit less than one run.
But now figure that neither player is going to get every single PA of every single game, and that there will be platoon matchups later in games that will nullify some of the advantage. So maybe now you’re looking at more like no runs over the course of the year.
Now make Jeter the #2 hitter instead of the #9 hitter vs. RHP.
I’ll leave the conclusion as an exercise for you, the (mostly)intelligent readers of this blog.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Fox Sports: Klapisch: Yanks end days of splurging on talent
There are two factors in play here. The first has to do with Hal Steinbrenner’s desire to save money, as opposed to his father, George, who funneled most of the Yankees’ profits back into the payroll. Peel away the layers of Yankees rhetoric, and what the younger Steinbrenner wants is to make money and win championships. In that order.
That plays into the second co-efficient: Just how much does a team have to spend to rule the world? The Yankees used to be obsessed with assembling a nuclear roster — a superstar at every position, if that’s what it took.
But what did that philosophy really yield? The Yankees have won only one World Series since 2000, nearly $2 billion in outlay for one ring in 2009. It’s a horrific return on investment, a revelation that finally hit home this past October.
The Yankees led the American League with 97 wins, spent more than anyone else with a $203 million payroll, yet were bounced in the first round of the playoffs.
“And it wasn’t just us,” said a team official. “Look at the Phillies.”
Indeed, the Yankees point to Philadelphia’s failure to win the pennant in the past two years — despite adding Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay — as proof that there’s no such thing as a sure thing. Not anymore.
If only they’d realized this before signing Rafael Soriano. That $12M per year plus $4-5M luxury tax hit plus first round draft pick could surely have been put to better use, no?
If you think about this logically, the Yankees have a lot of bad contracts that are tying their hands. If any team could take any one of the following players for free providing they had to pay their entire salaries would they?
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Mark Teixeira
A.J. Burnett
Soriano
I doubt it. That’s like what, $80M per year?
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
CAIRO 2012 v0.2
Here’s the latest version of the 2012 CAIRO projections, which can be downloaded here: cairo_2012_v0.2.xls.
What’s changed?
- Added more minor leaguers
- Added defensive projections for catchers and added Totalzone and Zone Rating projections for the other positions
- Added W-L for the pitchers, based on their current team and that team’s runs scored in 2011. This will change as teams’ offensive projections change, so keep that in mind.
- Took the Marcels and changed the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
So, what does CAIRO 2012 v0.2 think about how good the Yankees are right now?
| Lineup | Player | Pos | PA | avg/obp/slg | wOBA | Outs | BR | BRAR | Def | WAR |
| 1 | Derek Jeter | SS | 550 | .286/.345/.384 | .317 | 360 | 64 | 20 | -6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | Curtis Granderson | CF | 600 | .263/.351/.502 | .350 | 389 | 91 | 38 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 3 | Robinson Cano | 2B | 625 | .303/.352/.504 | .352 | 405 | 93 | 39 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 4 | Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 450 | .273/.363/.474 | .351 | 286 | 66 | 27 | 0 | 2.7 |
| 5 | Mark Teixeira | 1B | 625 | .263/.359/.493 | .352 | 401 | 93 | 26 | 4 | 3.0 |
| 6 | Nick Swisher | RF | 600 | .259/.356/.455 | .341 | 386 | 83 | 22 | 4 | 2.6 |
| 7 | Jesus Montero | DH | 500 | .267/.322/.470 | .326 | 339 | 66 | 9 | 0 | 0.9 |
| 8 | Russell Martin | C | 500 | .253/.347/.383 | .319 | 326 | 58 | 22 | 1 | 2.3 |
| 9 | Brett Gardner | LF | 500 | .262/.347/.371 | .315 | 326 | 61 | 10 | 22 | 3.2 |
| Starters | 4950 | .271/.350/.452 | .337 | 3220 | 675 | 212 | 25 | 23.7 | ||
| Bench | Player | Pos | PA | avg/obp/slg | wOBA | Outs | BR | BRAR | Def | WAR |
| Eduardo Nunez | IF | 350 | .262/.315/.392 | .299 | 240 | 40 | 10 | -5 | 0.5 | |
| Chris Dickerson | OF | 250 | .243/.321/.369 | .298 | 170 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0.3 | |
| Ramiro Pena | IF | 152 | .240/.290/.340 | .272 | 108 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Francisco Cervelli | C | 150 | .264/.328/.373 | .303 | 101 | 16 | 5 | -3 | 0.5 | |
| Colin Curtis | OF | 75 | .244/.312/.391 | .299 | 52 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | |
| Brandon Laird | IF | 75 | .247/.292/.407 | .291 | 53 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0.2 | |
| Corban Joseph | 2B | 75 | .237/.304/.356 | .284 | 52 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | |
| Zoilo Almonte | IF | 75 | .227/.282/.379 | .277 | 54 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | |
| Justin Maxwell | OF | 75 | .220/.315/.397 | .303 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | |
| Bench | 1277 | .248/.311/.378 | .294 | 880 | 135 | 24 | -5 | 1.9 | ||
| Team Total | 6227 | .266/.342/.436 | .328 | 4100 | 810 | 236 | 17 | 25.6 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
The Yankees are not likely to add a position player who will significantly improve these projections, so I think the critical number here is 450. If they can get more than 450 PA out of Alex Rodriguez they’ll project a bit better. They can also probably shore up the bench by adding an outfielder who projects better than Chris Dickerson, or who can at least be platooned with Dickerson. That could be accomplished by bringing back Andruw Jones or signing Cody Ross perhaps. Ross would project to hit .261/.328/.444 as a Yankee, and is capable of playing all three OF spots. Plus he’s a clutch postseason monster. Until he isn’t.
We do know the Yankees are going to try and improve their pitching.
| Role | Player | IP | H | R | HR | BB | K | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| SP1 | CC Sabathia | 220 | 199 | 87 | 18 | 62 | 195 | 3.58 | 3.25 | 3.23 | 5.5 |
| SP2 | Ivan Nova | 200 | 197 | 109 | 22 | 80 | 124 | 4.91 | 4.48 | 4.52 | 2.1 |
| SP3 | Phil Hughes | 175 | 169 | 94 | 23 | 60 | 136 | 4.86 | 4.72 | 4.26 | 1.9 |
| SP4 | A.J. Burnett | 175 | 172 | 102 | 24 | 73 | 151 | 5.22 | 4.88 | 4.52 | 1.2 |
| SP5 | Hector Noesi | 100 | 112 | 65 | 16 | 33 | 68 | 5.83 | 5.44 | 4.80 | 0.0 |
| SP6 | Adam Warren | 50 | 55 | 32 | 6 | 19 | 29 | 5.71 | 5.28 | 4.72 | 0.1 |
| SP7 | David Phelps | 50 | 57 | 33 | 7 | 17 | 29 | 5.88 | 5.44 | 4.88 | 0.0 |
| SP8 | D. J. Mitchell | 25 | 28 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 6.29 | 5.81 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| SP9 | Manny Banuelos | 25 | 27 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 17 | 6.52 | 6.01 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| SP10 | Dellin Betances | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.80 | 6.29 | 5.75 | 0.0 |
| Starters | 1020 | 1018 | 557 | 124 | 370 | 763 | 4.92 | 4.57 | 4.29 | 10.5 | |
| Role | Player | IP | H | R | HR | BB | K | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| CL | Mariano Rivera | 60 | 44 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 55 | 2.36 | 2.21 | 2.71 | 1.9 |
| SU | David Robertson | 75 | 58 | 24 | 4 | 38 | 95 | 2.88 | 2.70 | 2.84 | 2.0 |
| SU | Rafael Soriano | 60 | 46 | 25 | 6 | 21 | 57 | 3.78 | 3.57 | 3.64 | 1.0 |
| MR | Cory Wade | 60 | 56 | 28 | 8 | 16 | 42 | 4.19 | 3.86 | 4.31 | 0.7 |
| MR | Joba Chamberlain | 50 | 47 | 25 | 5 | 19 | 47 | 4.43 | 4.04 | 3.72 | 0.5 |
| MR | Boone Logan | 50 | 49 | 24 | 5 | 20 | 48 | 4.36 | 3.82 | 3.71 | 0.5 |
| MR | Mike O’Connor | 25 | 26 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 5.32 | 4.94 | 4.37 | 0.0 |
| MR | Kevin Whelan | 25 | 25 | 17 | 3 | 18 | 20 | 6.16 | 5.70 | 5.30 | -0.2 |
| LR | George Kontos | 15 | 16 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 6.51 | 6.03 | 5.64 | -0.2 |
| Relievers | 420 | 366 | 184 | 43 | 158 | 392 | 3.95 | 3.64 | 3.69 | 6.2 | |
| Total | 1440 | 1384 | 742 | 167 | 528 | 1154 | 4.64 | 4.30 | 4.12 | 16.6 |
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
Basically, the Yankees can add a win for every WAR they add to the rotation, since their rotation projects as replacement level after A.J. Burnett. That doesn’t mean none of the kids are better than their projections and would do the job in 2012, it just means they shouldn’t plan for that as what’s going to happen. The bullpen is fine, although they could probably benefit from adding a lefty reliever. An intriguing name that I’ve seen mentioned here and on Fangraphs is Dontrelle Willis. I’ll do a detailed post about him later.
Here’s what the overall picture looks like.
| RS | 810 |
| Def | 17 |
| RA | 742 |
| wpct | .553 |
| p162 | 90 |
So we’re looking at around a 90 win team right now. I think 95 wins is the sweet spot for projecting as the favorite in the AL East. Adding C.J. Wilson probably gets them there. Adding Yu Darvish might. Other than that it’s tough to see a single move that would accomplish it.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
CAIRO 2012 v0.1
I’m heading on vacation for about three weeks, and will probably not be online at all, so I’m releasing my 2012 CAIRO v0.1 now, even though they still need a bit of work. If you have any players you want projected that aren’t in here or see anything that looks off let me know in this thread and I’ll check it when I get back. In the meantime Jonathan will keep you covered on the major happenings in Yankee-land. I hope to return with the news that the Yankees have re-signed CC and won the posting for Yu Darvish, but we’ll see what happens.
Here are some of the key Yankees’ projections.
| Last | First | Age | Pos | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | WAR |
| Cano | Robinson | 30 | 2B | 676 | 620 | 97 | 188 | 42 | 4 | 25 | 100 | 5 | 3 | 42 | 84 | .303 | .352 | .504 | .352 | 95 | 4.1 |
| Granderson | Curtis | 31 | CF | 644 | 560 | 103 | 147 | 24 | 7 | 32 | 86 | 16 | 6 | 73 | 142 | .263 | .351 | .502 | .350 | 92 | 4.0 |
| Teixeira | Mark | 32 | 1B | 692 | 594 | 98 | 156 | 34 | 1 | 33 | 109 | 3 | 1 | 81 | 113 | .263 | .359 | .493 | .352 | 98 | 2.7 |
| Rodriguez | Alex | 37 | 3B | 459 | 398 | 65 | 109 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 78 | 6 | 2 | 53 | 82 | .273 | .363 | .474 | .351 | 63 | 2.6 |
| Montero | Jesus | 23 | C | 380 | 348 | 42 | 93 | 19 | 1 | 17 | 49 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 69 | .267 | .322 | .470 | .326 | 48 | 2.2 |
| Martin | Russell | 29 | C | 511 | 443 | 60 | 112 | 19 | 0 | 13 | 54 | 9 | 3 | 59 | 81 | .253 | .347 | .383 | .319 | 56 | 2.2 |
| Swisher | Nick | 32 | RF | 626 | 533 | 84 | 138 | 31 | 1 | 24 | 82 | 2 | 2 | 80 | 129 | .259 | .356 | .455 | .341 | 81 | 2.2 |
| Jeter | Derek | 38 | SS | 581 | 519 | 82 | 149 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 56 | 16 | 5 | 46 | 83 | .286 | .345 | .384 | .317 | 64 | 2.1 |
| Gardner | Brett | 29 | LF | 484 | 418 | 74 | 109 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 38 | 35 | 8 | 53 | 82 | .262 | .347 | .371 | .315 | 56 | 1.0 |
| Romine | Austin | 24 | C | 346 | 321 | 37 | 78 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 62 | .242 | .294 | .365 | .282 | 31 | 0.8 |
| Maxwell | Justin | 29 | CF | 267 | 233 | 33 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 31 | 79 | .220 | .315 | .397 | .303 | 29 | 0.8 |
| Laird | Brandon | 25 | 3B | 392 | 364 | 42 | 90 | 18 | 1 | 13 | 50 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 72 | .247 | .292 | .407 | .291 | 39 | 0.8 |
| Nunez | Eduardo | 25 | 3B | 281 | 256 | 34 | 67 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 20 | 35 | .262 | .315 | .392 | .299 | 30 | 0.7 |
| Jones | Andruw | 35 | RF | 315 | 271 | 38 | 61 | 13 | 1 | 14 | 41 | 4 | 1 | 37 | 76 | .224 | .320 | .431 | .313 | 36 | 0.7 |
| Cervelli | Francisco | 26 | C | 185 | 164 | 20 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 32 | .264 | .328 | .373 | .303 | 18 | 0.6 |
| Posada | Jorge | 41 | DH | 420 | 368 | 44 | 94 | 20 | 1 | 16 | 55 | 2 | 1 | 46 | 87 | .255 | .340 | .442 | .329 | 51 | 0.6 |
| Molina | Gustavo | 30 | C | 131 | 121 | 12 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 25 | .240 | .285 | .376 | .278 | 12 | 0.3 |
| Bernier | Doug | 32 | SS | 346 | 310 | 34 | 71 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 28 | 76 | .227 | .291 | .324 | .267 | 27 | 0.2 |
| Pena | Ramiro | 27 | SS | 201 | 183 | 23 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 35 | .240 | .290 | .340 | .272 | 17 | 0.2 |
| Curtis | Colin | 27 | LF | 231 | 209 | 26 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 44 | .244 | .312 | .391 | .299 | 24 | 0.2 |
| Dickerson | Chris | 30 | LF | 188 | 165 | 23 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 46 | .243 | .321 | .369 | .298 | 19 | 0.2 |
| Chavez | Eric | 35 | 3B | 149 | 136 | 15 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 31 | .243 | .298 | .364 | .282 | 14 | 0.1 |
| Golson | Greg | 27 | CF | 216 | 198 | 23 | 47 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 51 | .235 | .285 | .355 | .273 | 19 | 0.1 |
| Russo | Kevin | 28 | 2B | 384 | 350 | 41 | 83 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 73 | .236 | .295 | .329 | .272 | 31 | 0.0 |
| Last | First | Age | Role | G | GS | IP | H | HR | BB | IBB | SO | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| Sabathia | CC | 32 | SP | 33 | 33 | 227 | 218 | 19 | 64 | 4 | 201 | 3.25 | 3.23 | 64 | 6.4 |
| Nova | Ivan | 25 | SP | 30 | 29 | 168 | 176 | 19 | 67 | 2 | 104 | 4.48 | 4.52 | 23 | 2.3 |
| Rivera | Mariano | 43 | RP | 65 | 0 | 65 | 50 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 59 | 2.21 | 2.71 | 23 | 2.3 |
| Burnett | A.J. | 36 | SP | 32 | 32 | 190 | 198 | 26 | 79 | 2 | 164 | 4.88 | 4.52 | 19 | 1.9 |
| Colon | Bartolo | 39 | SP | 23 | 22 | 134 | 145 | 18 | 35 | 3 | 103 | 4.16 | 4.07 | 18 | 1.8 |
| Robertson | David | 27 | RP | 63 | 0 | 62 | 50 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 78 | 2.70 | 2.84 | 18 | 1.8 |
| Garcia | Freddy | 37 | SP | 18 | 17 | 102 | 112 | 12 | 30 | 3 | 64 | 4.28 | 4.28 | 18 | 1.8 |
| Hughes | Phil | 26 | SP | 22 | 16 | 95 | 97 | 12 | 32 | 1 | 74 | 4.72 | 4.26 | 13 | 1.3 |
| Soriano | Rafael | 33 | RP | 46 | 0 | 45 | 37 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 43 | 3.57 | 3.64 | 9 | 0.9 |
| Chamberlain | Joba | 27 | RP | 47 | 5 | 69 | 68 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 64 | 4.04 | 3.72 | 8 | 0.8 |
| Warren | Adam | 25 | SP | 28 | 28 | 147 | 173 | 18 | 57 | 0 | 85 | 5.28 | 4.72 | 7 | 0.7 |
| Wade | Cory | 29 | RP | 37 | 0 | 43 | 43 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 30 | 3.86 | 4.31 | 6 | 0.6 |
| Feliciano | Pedro | 36 | RP | 64 | 0 | 48 | 52 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 40 | 4.09 | 3.83 | 6 | 0.6 |
| Logan | Boone | 28 | RP | 56 | 0 | 43 | 45 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 41 | 3.82 | 3.71 | 6 | 0.6 |
| Ayala | Luis | 34 | RP | 42 | 0 | 46 | 48 | 5 | 17 | 2 | 31 | 3.99 | 4.40 | 5 | 0.5 |
| Phelps | David | 26 | SP | 28 | 27 | 152 | 185 | 23 | 50 | 0 | 88 | 5.44 | 4.88 | 4 | 0.4 |
| Prior | Mark | 32 | SP | 13 | 10 | 47 | 52 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 33 | 4.91 | 4.44 | 4 | 0.4 |
| Valdes | Raul | 35 | RP | 30 | 3 | 47 | 51 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 40 | 4.72 | 4.08 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Marte | Damaso | 37 | RP | 43 | 0 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 30 | 4.68 | 4.36 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Farnham | Jeffrey | 25 | RP | 35 | 0 | 37 | 36 | 4 | 19 | 2 | 30 | 4.53 | 4.51 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Flannery | Ryan | 27 | RP | 58 | 0 | 70 | 79 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 42 | 4.91 | 4.43 | 2 | 0.2 |
| Mitre | Sergio | 31 | RP | 31 | 2 | 51 | 52 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 28 | 4.55 | 4.58 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Laffey | Aaron | 27 | RP | 30 | 5 | 54 | 65 | 6 | 24 | 1 | 29 | 4.85 | 4.77 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Norton | Tim | 29 | RP | 39 | 0 | 45 | 47 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 40 | 4.98 | 4.71 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Noesi | Hector | 25 | RP | 31 | 10 | 79 | 94 | 12 | 26 | 2 | 53 | 5.44 | 4.80 | -3 | -0.3 |
| Whelan | Kevin | 28 | RP | 36 | 0 | 39 | 41 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 32 | 5.70 | 5.30 | -3 | -0.3 |
| Mitchell | D. J. | 25 | SP | 32 | 30 | 171 | 205 | 22 | 86 | 0 | 92 | 5.81 | 5.26 | -3 | -0.3 |
| Schmidt | Josh | 30 | RP | 60 | 1 | 75 | 81 | 9 | 46 | 1 | 57 | 5.48 | 5.06 | -3 | -0.3 |
| Venditte | Pat | 27 | RP | 61 | 0 | 82 | 94 | 12 | 35 | 1 | 58 | 5.55 | 4.96 | -4 | -0.4 |
| Isabel | George | 23 | RP | 41 | 0 | 42 | 45 | 7 | 29 | 1 | 33 | 6.03 | 5.80 | -5 | -0.5 |
| Reyes | Yobanny | 24 | RP | 45 | 0 | 48 | 53 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 35 | 5.93 | 5.60 | -5 | -0.5 |
| DeLuca | Evan | 21 | SP | 19 | 19 | 92 | 105 | 14 | 53 | 1 | 62 | 6.07 | 5.48 | -5 | -0.5 |
| Proctor | Scott | 36 | RP | 34 | 0 | 36 | 42 | 7 | 21 | 2 | 28 | 6.38 | 5.92 | -5 | -0.5 |
| Banuelos | Manny | 21 | SP | 26 | 26 | 126 | 147 | 19 | 72 | 1 | 88 | 6.01 | 5.43 | -5 | -0.5 |
| Betances | Dellin | 24 | SP | 16 | 16 | 73 | 82 | 12 | 47 | 0 | 55 | 6.29 | 5.75 | -5 | -0.5 |
| Stoneburner | Graham | 25 | SP | 22 | 21 | 111 | 137 | 19 | 45 | 0 | 64 | 6.10 | 5.48 | -6 | -0.6 |
| Kontos | George | 27 | RP | 30 | 5 | 56 | 65 | 11 | 27 | 0 | 39 | 6.03 | 5.64 | -6 | -0.6 |
WAR for position players does NOT include defense yet.
You can download the full spreadsheet here. I still need to add catcher defense and zone rating/total zone to the other fielders, and playing times are likely to be somewhat off. I need to double-check my MLEs since I usually find a mistake or two so don’t get too hung up on the minor leaguers’ projections just yet.
If I was to build a preliminary depth chart for the 2012 Yankees right now using the players currently under contract, it’d look something like this.
| Player | Pos | PA | BR | Player | Role | IP | R |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 580 | 64 | Sabathia, CC | SP1 | 220 | 87 |
| Granderson, Curtis | CF | 640 | 91 | Nova, Ivan | SP2 | 200 | 109 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 670 | 95 | Hughes, Phil | SP3 | 175 | 94 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 459 | 63 | Burnett, A.J. | SP4 | 185 | 107 |
| Teixeira, Mark | 1B | 675 | 95 | Noesi, Hector | SP5 | 140 | 91 |
| Swisher, Nick | RF | 625 | 81 | Betances, Dellin | SP6 | 50 | 38 |
| Montero, Jesus | DH | 550 | 69 | Banuelos, Manny | SP7 | 50 | 36 |
| Martin, Russell | C | 500 | 55 | Brackman, Andrew | SP8 | 0 | 0 |
| Gardner, Brett | LF | 550 | 63 | Rivera, Mariano | CL | 60 | 16 |
| Nunez, Eduardo | IF | 340 | 36 | Robertson, David | SU | 80 | 26 |
| Cervelli, Francisco | C | 250 | 25 | Soriano, Rafael | SU | 65 | 27 |
| Pena, Ramiro | IF | 50 | 4 | Logan, Boone | MR | 60 | 29 |
| Dickerson, Chris | OF | 300 | 31 | Wade, Cory | MR | 70 | 33 |
| Golson, Greg | OF | 50 | 4 | Chamberlain, Joba | MR | 60 | 30 |
| Laird, Brandon | IF | 50 | 5 | Laffey, Aaron | LR | 25 | 15 |
| Russo, Kevin | UT | 25 | 2 | Warren, Adam | LR | 0 | 0 |
| Romine, Austin | C | 0 | 0 | Phelps, David | LR | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 6314 | 784 | Total | 1440 | 737 |
That’s about an 86 win team, before considering defense. If we assume the 2012 Yankees would be about the same as the 2011 Yankees defensively (around +20) then you’re closer to an 88 win team. It’s not impossible to think some of the young pitchers will be better than CAIRO projects, but the offense looks like it could use a bit more oomph, particularly if we assume we’re only going to get about 450 PA of Alex Rodriguez. They probably need someone who can play 3B and outhit/outglove Eduardo Nunez for at least 40 games.
As far as the pitching staff, the Yankees probably should at least consider bringing Freddy Garcia and/or Bartolo Colon back. Garcia projects better than everyone but CC in the rotation, so I’d like to see the Yankees at least offer him arbitration. If he goes elsewhere, they should get a supplemental first round pick. If he can’t find another team he comes back on a one-year deal, which would be great. 150 innings of Garcia instead of Noesi as a starter makes the Yankees about two wins better.
So the Yankees have some work to do this offseason, IMO.
Monday, October 24, 2011
BBTF: 2012 ZiPS Projections - New York Yankees
While we wait for me to take the Marcels and change the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better, the first set of 2012 Yankee projections are out. With CHONE now being gobbled up by some MLB team, these are probably the best projections available now, and I know Dan Szymborski puts a ton of work into making it so.
I’ll just show the starters here..
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Robinson Cano L 2B 29 .299 .347 .506 156 609 92 182 41 5 25 103 40 76 6 3 121 Mark Teixeira B 1B 32 .263 .359 .495 147 562 88 148 32 1 32 109 76 112 2 1 122 Curtis Granderson L CF 31 .256 .346 .495 147 547 104 140 22 8 31 92 71 143 16 7 118 Alex Rodriguez R 3B 36 .264 .350 .474 108 405 62 107 20 1 21 82 51 89 7 2 115 Jesus Montero R C 22 .271 .333 .486 156 576 79 156 37 3 27 93 55 116 0 0 112 Nick Swisher B RF 31 .253 .358 .456 142 498 76 126 27 1 24 82 80 129 1 2 113 Andruw Jones R LF 35 .234 .335 .455 80 222 31 52 10 0 13 38 32 65 3 1 106 Brett Gardner L LF 28 .260 .352 .370 149 462 80 120 17 8 6 39 61 91 43 10 91 Russell Martin R C 29 .249 .346 .382 123 422 60 105 17 0 13 58 58 76 10 4 92 Jorge Posada B 1B 40 .238 .329 .414 105 324 35 77 15 0 14 47 41 80 1 1 94 Eduardo Nunez R SS 25 .273 .312 .379 141 480 57 131 23 2 8 48 26 64 21 7 81 Derek Jeter R SS 38 .268 .329 .362 129 542 78 145 22 4 7 58 46 84 14 5 82
And some selected pitchers.
Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ CC Sabathia L 31 3.55 17 8 31 31 218.0 211 86 19 63 189 126 Ivan Nova R 25 4.44 13 10 31 30 178.3 189 88 20 60 111 100 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Bartolo Colon R 39 4.77 7 6 20 19 111.3 121 59 17 32 78 93 Phil Hughes R 26 4.84 9 8 25 22 122.7 127 66 18 44 96 92 Freddy Garcia R 35 4.85 9 8 23 22 128.0 143 69 18 40 75 92 Hector Noesi R 25 5.24 6 6 32 14 103.0 120 60 14 35 68 85 A.J. Burnett R 35 5.31 9 10 28 27 159.3 170 94 25 70 128 84 David Phelps R 25 5.40 6 7 23 22 121.7 148 73 18 39 73 83 Manny Banuelos L 21 5.45 7 8 25 25 115.7 128 70 15 65 85 82 Dellin Betances R 24 5.66 5 7 24 24 105.0 111 66 15 72 85 79 Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ David Robertson R 27 3.06 4 2 69 0 64.7 50 22 5 34 87 146 Mariano Rivera R 42 3.12 3 1 53 0 49.0 44 17 4 10 43 143 Rafael Soriano R 32 3.14 4 2 67 0 63.0 50 22 6 21 74 142 Joba Chamberlain R 26 3.88 3 2 46 0 46.3 43 20 5 14 45 115 Boone Logan L 27 3.91 4 2 62 0 48.3 46 21 5 17 48 114 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Pedro Feliciano L 35 4.30 2 1 33 0 23.0 24 11 2 10 18 104 Cory Wade R 29 4.61 4 4 47 0 56.7 62 29 8 13 37 97 Luis Ayala R 34 4.62 4 3 44 0 50.7 56 26 6 19 32 96 Sergio Mitre R 31 5.08 1 1 26 2 44.3 49 25 6 17 22 88
Go to the link to see whatever players I didn’t include here.
Projections are inherently limited, so remember to take these for what they are. They are rough estimates of a player’s current talent level. They are not predictions for what a player is going to do in 2012, and they are not playing time predictions either.
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
2011 Postseason Batting Average Leaders through October 4
Minimum of 1 PA
| Player | Tm | AVG |
| Jesus Montero | NYY | 1.000 |
| Ryan Theriot | STL | .667 |
| Skip Schumaker | STL | .600 |
| Jimmy Rollins | PHI | .583 |
| Ryan Braun | MIL | .545 |
| Albert Pujols | STL | .538 |
| Brandon Inge | DET | .500 |
| Ben Francisco | PHI | .500 |
| Adron Chambers | STL | .500 |
| Matt Holliday | STL | .500 |
| Zack Greinke | MIL | .500 |
| Ryan Roberts | ARI | .455 |
| Jerry Hairston | MIL | .444 |
| Don Kelly | DET | .429 |
| Willie Bloomquist | ARI | .417 |
| Jorge Posada | NYY | .400 |
| Kelly Shoppach | TBR | .400 |
| Chase Utley | PHI | .400 |
| Craig Gentry | TEX | .400 |
| Ryan Raburn | DET | .400 |
| Brett Gardner | NYY | .385 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | ARI | .375 |
| Raul Ibanez | PHI | .375 |
| Magglio Ordonez | DET | .375 |
| Prince Fielder | MIL | .364 |
| Chris Young | ARI | .364 |
| Mike Napoli | TEX | .357 |
| Desmond Jennings | TBR | .333 |
| Aaron Hill | ARI | .333 |
| Shane Victorino | PHI | .333 |
| David Murphy | TEX | .333 |
| Josh Collmenter | ARI | .333 |
| Robinson Cano | NYY | .294 |
| B.J. Upton | TBR | .286 |
| Rafael Furcal | STL | .286 |
| Hunter Pence | PHI | .273 |
| Jonathan Lucroy | MIL | .273 |
| Adrian Beltre | TEX | .267 |
| Delmon Young | DET | .267 |
| Jhonny Peralta | DET | .267 |
| Josh Hamilton | TEX | .267 |
| Derek Jeter | NYY | .263 |
| Ian Kinsler | TEX | .250 |
| Curtis Granderson | NYY | .250 |
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Yankee WPA through Game 3 of 2011 ALDS
Win probability added is a stat that tries to estimate how a player has contributed to his team’s chances of winning a game. I don’t think it’s a good statistic for trying to assess value because it is heavily dependent on the contributions of others, but it’s fun to look at if you want a rough idea of which players performances have helped/hurt their teams the most.
Positive means an increase in the probability of winning, negative means a decrease. More positive is more gooder.
If you have anyone in the mainstream media sitting next to you, please send them away. And don’t tell them there’s no Santa Clause.
| Player | WPA |
| Ivan Nova | 0.280 |
| Brett Gardner | 0.269 |
| Jorge Posada | 0.262 |
| Curtis Granderson | 0.081 |
| Russell Martin | 0.078 |
| David Robertson | 0.031 |
| Boone Logan | 0.029 |
| Cory Wade | 0.024 |
| Mariano Rivera | 0.005 |
| Luis Ayala | -0.019 |
| Eric Chavez | -0.043 |
| Alex Rodriguez | -0.060 |
| Robinson Cano | -0.074 |
| Rafael Soriano | -0.097 |
| Andruw Jones | -0.102 |
| Freddy Garcia | -0.122 |
| Mark Teixeira | -0.162 |
| CC Sabathia | -0.237 |
| Nick Swisher | -0.258 |
| Derek Jeter | -0.421 |
FWIW, here are the ten lowest WPA in the 2011 postseason to this point.
| Player | WPA |
| CC Sabathia | -0.237 |
| Koji Uehara | -0.252 |
| Nick Swisher | -0.258 |
| Daniel Hudson | -0.269 |
| Chris Carpenter | -0.286 |
| C.J. Wilson | -0.334 |
| James Shields | -0.354 |
| Brad Ziegler | -0.375 |
| Derek Jeter | -0.421 |
| Cliff Lee | -0.465 |
| Kyle Lohse | -0.542 |
Make it 11, so we can get CC on the list. The more to complain about, the better.
If only the Yankees had signed proven postseason pitcher Cliff Lee…
What the hell, ten best too.
| Player | WPA |
| Ryan Howard | 0.436 |
| Mike Napoli | 0.401 |
| Neftali Feliz | 0.388 |
| Yovani Gallardo | 0.371 |
| Ivan Nova | 0.280 |
| Brett Gardner | 0.269 |
| Lance Berkman | 0.263 |
| Jorge Posada | 0.262 |
| Jason Motte | 0.255 |
| Ryan Braun | 0.251 |
Saturday, October 1, 2011
Yankees.com: Suspension of disbelief: Cano puts on show
Robinson Cano missed a homer by a matter of inches on his go-ahead double, and his grand slam put the game away one night after it began as the Yankees won Game 1 of the ALDS. Ivan Nova picked up the win in relief of CC Sabathia by stifling the Tigers for 6 1/3 innings.
Nova pitched well enough in relief that I think he deserves a start.
Although Doug Fister was charged with six runs, he was pitching pretty well until the sixth. Obviously Cano had a monster day, but there were a few other key plays that I though were worth mentioning.
1) Curtis Granderson, Derek Jeter and Russell Martin combining on a relay throw and tag to nail Alex Avila at home after a Jhonny Peralta single that would have given Detroit a 2-1 lead in the fifth.
2) Nova retiring Wilson Betemit on the very next play with runners on second and third. As I mentioned in the last thread, Betemit hit .307/.374/.557 vs. RHP in 2011.
3) Brett Gardner’s two-out, two-run single to push the Yankees lead to 4-1 and help set the stage for Cano’s grand slam that basically won the game.
I had no problem with how Joe Girardi handled the ninth. Nova was only around 80 pitches and he got the first out. And I was fine with using Ayala to try to close it out since the team had an eight run lead. I was also fine with using Mo to throw three pitches to close it out.
Now we just have to hope that Freddy Garcia’s smoke and mirrors act last for a few more weeks, beginning with tomorrow’s game.
With every series underway, here are my updated odds for each team’s advancing out of their respective series through tonight.
| Team | DS |
| Phillies | 77.4% |
| Brewers | 74.5% |
| Yankees | 67.6% |
| Rangers | 57.2% |
| Rays | 42.8% |
| Tigers | 32.4% |
| Diamondbacks | 25.5% |
| Cardinals | 22.6% |
Thursday, September 29, 2011
WSJ: The Yankees Have Many Postseason Roster Decisions
Even with the season ending Wednesday, the Yankee postseason roster is still not set—as a number of decisions could come down to whether the Yankees play Texas or Detroit in the first round.
A few things are set in stone: CC Sabathia will start Game 1 on Friday, and Ivan Nova will start the second game on Saturday. Freddy Garcia looks like the most likely option for Game 3 on Monday, but manager Joe Girardi wouldn’t commit. Meanwhile, it seems likely that Bartolo Colon would not make the roster for the first round.
It’s probably much ado about nothing to think about what the best postseason roster might be since the Yankees are going to do whatever they’re going to do. Then again, blogging by nature is much ado about nothing, so why not?
As the excerpt says, we know CC and Nova are going in 1 and 2. We also know that Girardi intends to start CC on short rest in Game 4, if necessary. That would allow Nova to pitch Game 5 on normal rest. So they probably only need one more starter. It sounds like that will be Freddy Garcia.
Catcher is one area where things get interesting. We know Russell Martin is a lock. Francisco Cervelli is out for the postseason. The only true backup catcher in the organization right now (according to their thought process) is Austin Romine. Romine is not a major league caliber offensive player right now, and may never be one. In an ideal series, he’d never play. So I think I’d rather see the Yankees take just Martin, with Jorge Posada and Jesus Montero available in an emergency. Should Martin get hurt, the Yankees would have the option to add Romine to the roster. They would also have the option to add him to the roster in the ALCS if they made it there by some miracle.
The thing with Posada and Montero is that they’re likely to be DH’ing if they’re in the lineup. So if one of them has to switch to catcher while already in the lineup as DH, the Yankees will lose the DH. For that reason I think you need both of them on the roster.
On the infield, the question is what combination of Eric Chavez, Eduardo Nunez and Ramiro Pena the Yankees will use to backup Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira.
For the outfield, I think you’ll see Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher, Brett Gardner, and Andruw Jones. Chris Dickerson’s probably a long-shot.
In my mind, these are the locks.
Starting Pitchers (3)
Sabathia
Nova
Garcia
Relievers (6)
Rivera
Robertson
Soriano
Logan
Wade
Ayala
Catchers (1)
Martin
Infield (4)
Cano
Jeter
Rodriguez
Teixeira
Outfield (4)
Gardner
Granderson
Swisher
Jones
That’s 18 players, which leaves seven spots which can be filled by some of the following players.
Other pitchers
Burnett
Colon
Hughes
Laffey
Noesi
Valdes
Other catchers
Montero
Posada
Romine
Other infielders
Chavez
Laird
Nunez
Pena
Other outfielders
Dickerson
Golson
I think/hope the Yankees will take Posada/Montero in lieu of Romine. I hope that they’re not going to employ a strict platoon at DH, since it basically means Montero will sit on the bench for the entire series with Detroit. I was hoping they could get by with one backup IF, but given A-Rod’s health issues I’d imagine they’ll take both Chavez and Nunez.That would leave them three more spots for pitchers, but I don’t see carrying 12 pitchers in a 5 game series. So that opens up a spot for someone like Dickerson or Pena or Romine I suppose.
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Yankees.com: Pigs Fly
ANAHEIM—A little sunshine helped the Yankees to a desperately needed victory, as Mark Teixeira saw a key fly ball misplayed by Peter Bourjos en route to a 6-5 victory over the Angels at Angel Stadium on Sunday.
Batting in the seventh inning with New York down by a run, Teixeira sent a drive to center field that popped in and out of Bourjos’ glove as the outfielder squinted into a high blue sky, allowing Brett Gardner and Derek Jeter to charge home with the tying and go-ahead runs.
The miscue helped the Yankees finally get back into their winning mode after having lost four consecutive games in three different cities as they play out a taxing September stretch.
I suppose this means I can watch the replay.
So, in order for the Yankees to win this game they needed:
1) An error on a fairly routine fly ball by one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball. It would have been a game-tying sacrifice fly instead of a go-ahead two-run error.
2) Freddy Garcia pitching out of a bases-loaded, one-out jam in the fifth without allowing a run. That the last out of the inning was a routine grounder to Nun-E that actually got converted into an out makes it all the more remarkable.
3) Rafael Soriano pitching out of a first-and-third, one-out jam to preserve a one-run lead. Yeah, that Rafael Soriano.
4) Six defensive innings at catcher by the worst defensive catcher in the history of pro baseball.
Seems about right to me. I don’t know if the odds of all those things happening are worse than the odds of A.J. Burnett beating the Red Sox, but it’s got to be in the ballpark.
We also saw the debut of the catcher closer. I always knew it took a special pitcher to pitch the 7th, or 8th, or 9th. I had no idea that it took a special catcher to catch those innings. It was a cool deal for Austin Romine though, as he got to make his MLB debut against his brother’s team with his parents in the stands. As far as I can tell from reading accounts of the game, Jesus Montero didn’t embarrass himself behind the plate, so that was good too. The decision to pull Montero after six innings was a curious one, but given the family circumstances for Romine it makes a bit more sense in hindsight.
And I would never have believed it, but as oscar gamble’s afro (the poster, not his actual afro) noted, by winning today the Yankees won the season series with the Angels 5-4. I would never have guessed that.
I still hope we don’t see them again in 2011, or see them laying down for Boston in the ALDS.
Speaking of Boston, the Yankees have finally picked up a game on a team that’s lost something like ten games in a row. Yay!
Saturday, September 10, 2011
Yankees.com: Yanks muster little at plate in loss to Halos
ANAHEIM—Maicer Izturis’ game-winning drive landed in Curtis Granderson’s glove, too deep in center field to attempt a throw, and all Derek Jeter thought about was the toss he should have made.
Izturis connected for a bases-loaded sacrifice fly facing Luis Ayala in the ninth inning on Friday night, lifting the Angels to a 2-1 victory over the Yankees that made Jeter’s hurried fifth-inning throwing error loom even larger.
“It boils down to giving them extra outs,” Jeter said. “I gave them an extra out throwing that ball away.”
More importantly, Jeter added, the Yankees couldn’t afford to cough up runs facing a stellar Jered Weaver, who limited the Bombers to just Jesus Montero’s homer over eight innings, striking out 11.
I’ll give Jeter a pass, since it was Jeff Mathis busting it down the line. It’s pretty hard to throw out a backup catcher on a routine grounder.
I didn’t get to see the game, but reading the recap and the game chatter here’s what I have to say about it.
1) Jered Weaver is a good pitcher, and from what I can glean he pitched well. Sometimes you face a good pitcher and he shuts you down.
2) As I’ve gotten older, I’ve lost the ability to “hate” players. Frankly, if I was the absolute worst player in MLB history, I’d bat or pitch every time a team kept giving me a chance to do it. So I don’t hate players who aren’t particularly good. If their team puts them in a position to fail, that’s the team’s fault, not theirs. So with regards to using Aaron Laffey last night (or Scott Proctor the day before) in the absolute highest leverage a team can be in at the start of an inning, I won’t blame Laffey (Proctor) for that. I’ll blame Joe Girardi. If you think this game is unimportant enough to use Laffey in that spot, you shouldn’t have wasted David Robertson in the eighth, since now you probably won’t be able to use him in a game you may actually try to win tonight. If you think these games are unimportant, why not audition some of the people who have upside and may have a meaningful role with this team in the years to come? Perhaps they’ll surprise you and show that they’re ready now? Does anyone think Buck Showalter would have used Jack McDowell to replace Mariano Rivera in the 9th inning of the fifth game of the 1995 ALDS if he knew how good Rivera was? If Hector Noesi didn’t get a shot against Baltimore in extra innings in his MLB debut, would the Yankees ever have made him a useful part of their bullpen?
3) As I said, the Yankees always find a way to lose to the Angels, and it’s really infuriating. Your pitcher’s pitching brilliantly against them? Make an error that gives them the run that ends up costing you the win.
4) The Yankees are probably exhausted right now given the way their last three games have unfolded. A four hour rain delay in New York resulting in a game that ended around 2:00 am followed by a trip for a day game to Baltimore followed by a flight to the West Coast to play a game at 10:00 pm Eastern time. So maybe we’re seeing some effect from that.
5) Any schadenfreude from the Red Sox’s recent tailspin is pretty much gone with the fact that the Yankees haven’t been able to gain even one iota from it, aside from shortening the amount of time the Red Sox might have to catch them.
It’s still really unlikely that the Yankees miss the playoffs, and with Detroit and Texas in a near dead heat record-wise there’s not necessarily going to be a huge advantage from winning the division. So I can at least be happy that Bartolo Colon pitched well, something he hasn’t done as much of since his return from the DL. I can also appreciate the fact that Jesus Montero pulled a HR off one of the best pitchers in the league and helped make his case for full-time play. Also, the Angels are just two games back of Texas in the loss column and it wouldn’t necessarily be the worst thing in the world if they forced Texas to go all out down the stretch. It can only benefit whomever faces the AL West winner if the race goes down to the wire.
I seriously expect the Yankees to lose every game they play against the Angels. Because of that, I just can’t get that worked up about it anymore. As a card-carrying stat-nerd, I really have a tough time reconciling the fact that what’s happened in the past has no bearing on what happens now when these two teams play and that the talent on the field that given day should be the primary factor in who wins or loses with the way the Yankees constantly roll over for Anaheim.
Sunday, September 4, 2011
Yankees.com: Backed by homers, CC earns 19th win
NEW YORK—If CC Sabathia felt the effects of a 128-pitch, six-inning outing Tuesday night in Boston, he didn’t show it Sunday.
The left-hander pitched 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball to bag his 19th win of the season as the Yankees downed the Blue Jays, 7-3, to complete a three-game sweep in the Bronx. Sabathia struck out 10, walked one and threw 111 pitches. He retired 13 of the final 14 batters to face him.
Derek Jeter hit his fifth homer of the season—and the second since he reached 3,000 career hits with a long ball—to give the Yankees and their ace some early breathing room. The three-run shot to left field against Toronto left-hander Brett Cecil landed in the same area as the famous July 9 home run and extended the Yankees’ lead from 1-0 to 4-0.
I was wondering how Sabathia would look after a pretty tough start on Tuesday, and the answer was great.
And thank God we have Rafael Soriano to pitch innings that only eighth inning guys could pitch. If the Yankees hadn’t dropped $36M on Soriano they may have won this one 9-2 instead of 9-3. But I digress.
The sweep is nice, but if they’re going to sweep a pretty good Toronto team they damn well better sweep a crappy Orioles team.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Yankees.com: Yanks pound A’s with record three slams
NEW YORK—Russell Martin’s sixth-inning grand slam fueled a historic Yankees rout, as the Bombers rallied to post a 22-9 victory over the Athletics on Thursday at Yankee Stadium.
Robinson Cano also belted a fifth-inning grand slam for New York, which avoided a series sweep by overcoming a poor start from Phil Hughes, who served up six runs in just 2 2/3 innings. Curtis Granderson’s eighth-inning slam was the third of the afternoon for the Yankees, who set a Major League record for most slams in a single game.
Expect Boston to his four grand slams in some game this weekend.
Admit it. When the Yankees went down 7-1 in the top of the third, you didn’t think they had a chance, right?
For a brief shining moment, Derek Jeter’s average sat at .300, although when he struck out in his seventh PA of the game he dipped back down to .299.
Watching first baseman Nick Swisher dig out a low throw from second baseman Jorge Posada for the final out of the game (yes, seriously) was fun too.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
The Fall and Rise of Derek Jeter?
Derek Jeter’s hot hitting since his return from the DL has surprised a lot of us who thought he was completely washed up. Unfortunately, the sample size of his hitting since returning from the DL is small enough that we can’t assume it’s what Jeter will do going forward (185 PA). What’s interesting though is that we can extend our selective end points to a much larger sample and still see decent evidence that Jeter’s been showing signs of hitting better since April 13.
| Dates | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | SB | CS | HBP | GDP | avg | obp | slg | woba | isoD | isoP |
| 3/31-4/10 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .206 | .279 | .235 | .238 | .073 | .029 |
| 4/13-8/23 | 441 | 122 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 52 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 8 | .305 | .367 | .395 | .342 | .062 | .090 |
| Dates | br | br/650 | babip | FB | GB | LD | IFH | fb% | gb% | ld% | bb/pa | k/pa |
| 3/31-4/10 | 2 | 34 | .241 | 3 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 10.3% | 79.3% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 11.6% |
| 4/13-8/23 | 56 | 83 | .343 | 69 | 213 | 63 | 17 | 20.0% | 61.7% | 18.3% | 7.7% | 11.8% |
FB: fly balls
GB: ground balls
LD: line drives
IFH: infield hits
woba: weighted on-base average
isoD: Isolated plate discipline (obp - avg)
isoP: Isolated power (slg - avg)
br: linear weights batting runs
br/650: br pro-rated to 650 PA
babip: batting average on balls in play
The numbers are even more impressive when viewed since his return from the DL.
| Dates | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | SB | CS | HBP | GDP | avg | obp | slg | woba | isoD | isoP |
| 3/31-6/13 | 293 | 68 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 | .260 | .324 | .324 | .295 | .065 | .065 |
| 7/4-8/23 | 185 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | .351 | .405 | .470 | .386 | .054 | .119 |
| Dates | br | br/650 | babip | FB | GB | LD | IFH | fb% | gb% | ld% | bb/pa | k/pa |
| 3/31-6/13 | 28 | 62 | .288 | 52 | 153 | 27 | 12 | 22.4% | 65.9% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 10.6% |
| 7/4-8/23 | 29 | 102 | .404 | 20 | 83 | 39 | 8 | 14.1% | 58.5% | 27.5% | 7.6% | 13.5% |
I am going to go out on a limb and say it’s doubtful he hits .351 over the rest of the year, but it’s not a stretch to think he could hit the .320 or so he’d need to hit to end the year at .300. And yes, we know a .300 average isn’t really indicative of how good a player is, but it’d be fun to see Jeter get there, if only to break the hearts of those who were dancing with glee on his grave.
NYDN: Joe Girardi asks Yankee captain Derek Jeter to bunt despite hot night at the plate against A’s
Derek Jeter already had reached base four times, including three more hits to boost his average this season to .295 while tying Rod Carew for 22nd place on baseball’s all-time hit list with 3,053.
But with the tying runs aboard with none out and facing a two-run deficit in the ninth, Joe Girardi called for the Yankee captain to bunt, giving up an out against shaky Oakland closer Andrew Bailey. Jeter dropped down a perfect sacrifice, but the Yanks scored only once more in falling short, 6-5, to the A’s at the Stadium.
The minute I saw that Jeter was squaring to bunt, I knew the Yankees weren’t going to win the game. I just can’t understand why you’d give a struggling closer his first out on a silver effing platter. Stupid, stupid, stupid.
Monday, August 15, 2011
Yankees.com: Jeter backs A.J., lifting Yanks into tie for first
KANSAS CITY—Derek Jeter stood near the base of the mound at Kauffman Stadium on Monday, his hand on A.J. Burnett’s shoulder as he offered a few words of encouragement before the pitcher headed for the dugout.
What Burnett may have appreciated even more, though, was Jeter’s two-run triple in the sixth inning, lifting the embattled hurler to his first August win as a member of the Yankees in a 7-4 victory over the Royals. The win pulled New York into a first-place tie with the idle Boston Red Sox in the American League East.
The only difference between Burnett today and Burnett last time out is that his team scored him more runs. Burnett again failed to give the team a quality start (at least 6 IP, 3 or fewer runs allowed), something he’s managed in only eight of his 25 starts. For comparison’s sake:
| Pitcher | GS | QS ? | QS% |
| Freddy Garcia | 20 | 14 | 70% |
| CC Sabathia* | 26 | 16 | 62% |
| Bartolo Colon | 18 | 11 | 61% |
| Ivan Nova | 19 | 11 | 58% |
| Phil Hughes | 9 | 4 | 44% |
| A.J. Burnett | 25 | 8 | 32% |
| Brian Gordon | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| League Average | 54% | ||
| Team Total | 119 | 64 | 54% |
Other than that, nice win. They got some positive offensive contributions from everyone except Eric Chavez, and the pen pitched well aside from one person. It was also good to see signs that WWWMW™ is possibly over as well.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Yankees.com: Cano slams Angels after two-out error
NEW YORK—Robinson Cano made the Angels pay a heavy price for a crucial error, blasting a seventh-inning grand slam to lead the Yankees to a 6-5 victory on Thursday afternoon at Yankee Stadium.
Second baseman Maicer Izturis booted Mark Teixeira’s soft tapper, which appeared to be the final out of the inning, sending up Cano with the bases loaded against reliever Scott Downs.
Cano took advantage of the opportunity, pelting the facing of the second deck in right field, earning a curtain call for his fifth career grand slam, and his first since Aug. 22, 2010, against the Mariners.
For Cano, the homer was his second in less than 24 hours, having also homered in the seventh inning on Wednesday, and the first permitted to a left-handed batter by Downs this year.
Yay Cano!
Derek Jeter went 3 for 3 with a walk, continuing to be a lot more productive since his return from the DL on July 4.
| Dates | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | SB | CS | HBP | GDP | avg | obp | slg | woba | isoD | isoP |
| 3/31-6/13 | 293 | 68 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 | .260 | .324 | .324 | .295 | .065 | .065 |
| 7/4-8/11 | 139 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | .312 | .374 | .440 | .359 | .062 | .128 |
| Dates | br | br/650 | babip | FB | GB | LD | IFH | fb% | gb% | ld% | bb/pa | k/pa |
| 3/31-6/13 | 28 | 62 | .288 | 52 | 153 | 27 | 12 | 22.4% | 65.9% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 10.6% |
| 7/4-8/11 | 20 | 93 | .370 | 13 | 63 | 25 | 6 | 12.9% | 62.4% | 24.8% | 7.9% | 16.5% |
FB: fly balls
GB: ground balls
LD: line drives
IFH: infield hits
woba: weighted on-base average
isoD: Isolated plate discipline (obp - avg)
isoP: Isolated power (slg - avg)
br: linear weights batting runs
br/650: br pro-rated to 650 PA
babip: batting average on balls in play
Granted, 6 of his 39 hits have been of the infield variety, but that’s actually only 15.4% of his hits, compared to 17.6% prior to going on the DL.
And I am hoping that WWWMW™ is not going to last any longer. It’s been long enough.
I was wondering if Russell Branyan was the first player to ever homer off Rivera on his first pitch of the game. It turns out it’s happened twice before.
April 11, 1997 to Mark McGwire
I remember this one. It was a shot to the black in dead center and it was early in Rivera’s first year as an official closer, supplanting John Wetteland after Rivera’s superlative 1996. The media decided to play up the whole ‘maybe he can’t get those last three outs since they’re so much harder to get’ thing, but I guess it turns out he could.
I don’t remember this one, a blown save against the White Sox in Chicago.
Friday, August 5, 2011
The Monkey On Their Backs
By any reasonable viewpoint, the Yankees have had a great year in 2011. They lead MLB in run differential/Pythagorean record, are tied for the top in the best division in baseball and have gotten a lot of good performances from unexpected places. In particular, a pitching staff that was touted as the team’s Achilles’ heel all offseason has been a legitimate strength.
Despite all that, it seems like a lot of us haven’t fully embraced the good things that this team has done, and I think it really just comes down to one thing. This team has gotten its ass handed to it by Boston every time they’ve played this year.
So who to blame? Here are the splits for the Yankees’ hitters vs. Boston and vice versa.
| Player | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | IBB | HBP | K | SB | CS | BA | OBA | SPct | wOBA | BR |
| Derek Jeter | 44 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | .200 | .273 | .225 | .238 | 1.9 |
| Curtis Granderson | 41 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 1 | .229 | .341 | .571 | .383 | 6.6 |
| Mark Teixeira | 38 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | .121 | .211 | .121 | .171 | 0.2 |
| Nick Swisher | 36 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .188 | .278 | .281 | .258 | 2.7 |
| Robinson Cano | 36 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | .281 | .361 | .500 | .374 | 5.8 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 36 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | .194 | .306 | .419 | .319 | 4.4 |
| Brett Gardner | 35 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | .167 | .286 | .267 | .260 | 2.3 |
| Russell Martin | 27 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .227 | .370 | .636 | .419 | 5.1 |
| Jorge Posada | 20 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .400 | .333 | .342 | 2.3 |
| Andruw Jones | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | .182 | .182 | .455 | .259 | 1.0 |
| Eric Chavez | 8 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .750 | .535 | 2.2 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .571 | .667 | .537 | 1.8 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .286 | .167 | .231 | 0.3 |
| Chris Dickerson | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.240 | 0.9 |
| Total | 347 | 37 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 31 | 1 | 10 | 78 | 6 | 3 | .223 | .314 | .384 | .311 | 37.5 |
| Player | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | IBB | HBP | K | SB | CS | BA | OBA | SPct | wOBA | BR |
| Carl Crawford | 40 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .125 | .125 | .200 | .139 | -0.2 |
| David Ortiz | 42 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .324 | .405 | .676 | .451 | 8.8 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 38 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .371 | .421 | .571 | .430 | 7.6 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 44 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .235 | .386 | .500 | .382 | 6.6 |
| Kevin Youkilis | 42 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | .242 | .381 | .424 | .359 | 5.7 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 39 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .500 | .605 | .733 | .556 | 10.9 |
| J.D. Drew | 33 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .280 | .424 | .400 | .376 | 4.6 |
| Marco Scutaro | 22 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .300 | .364 | .450 | .357 | 3.3 |
| Jed Lowrie | 21 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .316 | .333 | .421 | .322 | 2.3 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 20 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .400 | .556 | .412 | 3.6 |
| Jason Varitek | 18 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .333 | .200 | .270 | 1.2 |
| Mike Cameron | 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .273 | .333 | .364 | .289 | 1.2 |
| Total | 372 | 60 | 92 | 18 | 2 | 12 | 59 | 44 | 6 | 5 | 58 | 6 | 1 | .290 | .379 | .473 | .372 | 55.7 |
wOBA: weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs.
Mark Teixeira has been abysmal vs. Boston this year with some support from Derek Jeter, Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner.
Here’s a “fun” stat for you. Dustin Pedroia has provided more offense in 39 PA versus the Yankees than Jeter, Teixeira, Swisher, Gardner and Jorge Posada have provided in 173 PA against Boston (10.9 BR to 9.4 BR). Maybe fun is not the right word.
Boston’s outscored the Yankees at close to a 2-1 rate and if you compare the BR to the actual runs there’s not a lot of evidence of good or bad luck in there.
Two other things I found interesting aggravating are the HBP and IBB columns.
Well, maybe looking at the pitching will cheer us up.
| Player | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | HBP | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Bartolo Colon | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 4.35 | 2.61 | 3.88 |
| Jeff Marquez | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 2.20 |
| Phil Hughes | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | 27.00 | 12.70 |
| Boone Logan | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 3.41 |
| Lance Pendleton | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16.20 | 16.20 | 20.00 |
| Hector Noesi | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.53 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12.27 | 12.27 | 9.75 |
| Ivan Nova | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8.31 | 8.31 | 4.58 |
| Luis Ayala | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.83 |
| Rafael Soriano | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.20 |
| Freddy Garcia | 0 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 11.25 | 10.13 | 9.20 |
| Mariano Rivera | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.20 |
| A.J. Burnett | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12.71 | 11.12 | 6.55 |
| CC Sabathia | 0 | 3 | 19 | 24 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 3 | 6.16 | 6.16 | 4.20 |
| David Robertson | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4.15 | 2.08 | 3.43 |
| Total | 1 | 8 | 79 | 92 | 60 | 55 | 12 | 44 | 58 | 5 | 6.84 | 6.27 | 5.57 |
| Player | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | HBP | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Dan Wheeler | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 1.20 |
| Daniel Bard | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2.08 | 2.08 | 4.12 |
| Jonathan Papelbon | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 0.60 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 4.91 | 3.68 | 6.47 |
| Jon Lester | 2 | 0 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.37 |
| Rich Hill | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| Matt Albers | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.70 |
| Clay Buchholz | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 5.91 | 5.06 | 5.08 |
| John Lackey | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10.80 | 10.80 | 6.80 |
| Felix Doubront | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13.50 | 13.50 | 11.45 |
| Josh Beckett | 3 | 0 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 4 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 2.72 |
| Tim Wakefield | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 6.14 | 6.14 | 5.52 |
| Bobby Jenks | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.20 |
| Total | 8 | 1 | 81 | 68 | 37 | 35 | 10 | 31 | 78 | 10 | 4.11 | 3.89 | 4.40 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
That didn’t really help.
It would have been nice to have Alex Rodriguez back for this series, although maybe Eric Chavez can stay healthy through Sunday (assuming he’s off tonight with Jon Lester pitching).
Pitching matchups for the weekend are Colon vs. Lester tonight, CC vs. Lackey tomorrow, and Garcia vs. Beckett on Sunday. So the Yankees are probably slight underdogs tonight, favorites tomorrow, and strong underdogs Sunday. Logic says we should be happy if they take one of the three, and that’s the most likely scenario, but after losing 8 of 9 to Boston, including all 6 at home, I won’t be happy with anything less than a sweep.
I suppose I could settle for a 2-1 series win.
Seriously though, barring catastrophe both of these teams will be in the postseason, so I suppose we shouldn’t get that worked up about whatever happens here.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Yankees.com: Yankees erupt early, pour it on late
CHICAGO—A.J. Burnett’s struggles made it interesting, but the Yankees’ offense eventually made it a blowout.
Behind their fourth double-digit-scoring game in less than two weeks, the Yankees won their sixth straight game at U.S. Cellular Field on Wednesday night, dismantling the White Sox by a score of 18-7.
Their offensive onslaught saw Eric Chavez hit his first home run since May 11 of last year, Derek Jeter tie his career high with five hits, Mark Teixeira hit his first triple since 2009 and the first three hitters of the Yankees’ lineup combine to go 12-for-17 with 10 runs and seven RBIs.
We’ll have to wait at least one more start for Burnett’s first win as a Yankee in August.
Burnett joined a list of three other Yankee pitchers who allowed at least 13 hits while not completing five innings. So congratulations to him.
In happier news, since returning from the DL on July 4, Derek Jeter’s hitting .333/.380/.495.
Sunday, July 31, 2011
Yankees.com: Gardner, Garcia lead Yanks past O’s
Many held their breath in the fourth inning when Francisco Cervelli stepped to the on-deck circle instead of Derek Jeter. Everyone knew better than to think Cashman had traded Jeter, but it was unclear just how long the shortstop would be out after taking a pitch on his right hand to lead off the third inning.
Was anyone really holding their breath?
Brett Gardner provided a welcome distraction from those concerns, hitting a decisive bases-loaded triple with Cervelli on deck to key the Yankees’ 4-2 win. Two innings later, fears were quelled when the Yankees announced that X-Rays on Jeter’s right middle finger were negative, revealing just a bruise and making the captain day to day.
...
The Yankees were aided by what has become a typical Freddy Garcia performance in 2011—more substance than style, more movement than speed.In helping the Yankees close out this 10-game homestand with a 7-3 mark, the 34-year-old Garcia pitched his eighth quality start in his last nine outings, striking out six over six innings while surrendering two runs on five hits.
By winning three games in the last 30 hours the Yankees were able to finish up the homestand at 7-3, which is probably about as good as any realistic expectation.
The non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone, and it looks like the Yankees stood pat. I’m fine with that.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Sporting News: Jeter’s leadoff spot could be in jeopardy
New York Yankees manager Joe Girardi hinted that shortstop Derek Jeter’s days as the team’s leadoff hitter could be numbered.
Jeter hit leadoff Wednesday, while the surging Brett Gardner remained in the No. 9 hole. With the way he has been hitting and the speed he brings, Gardner might be better suited for the top spot.
“He’s going so well, it’s something I’ll definitely consider,” Girardi told the New York Daily News. “We’ll just wait and see what happens.”
Jeter, who has slumped since getting career hit No. 3,000 on July 9, has a .323 on-base percentage. Gardner’s .370 mark, meanwhile, is tops among the team’s regulars.
If Gardner really is the best OBP guy on the team now, getting him more PAs seems like something that should have happened sooner. Here are the # of PA for the Yankees by batting order slot so far this season.
| Split | PA |
| Batting 1st | 450 |
| Batting 2nd | 437 |
| Batting 3rd | 428 |
| Batting 4th | 420 |
| Batting 5th | 409 |
| Batting 6th | 401 |
| Batting 7th | 389 |
| Batting 8th | 377 |
| Batting 9th | 362 |
The Yankees have played 97 games and the leadoff hitter has had 88 more PA than the ninth hitter. Moving Jeter to second still means he’s getting more PA than he deserves, but I think we need to view this potential move as a reward to Gardner instead of as punitive to Jeter. Gardner’s earned more PA, so hopefully he gets them.
Speaking of Jeter, since going 5 for 5 on the day he got his 3000th hit, he has been beyond terrible.
| Dates | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | GDP | avg | obp | slg | woba |
| 7/10-7/20 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | .200 | .226 | .200 | .197 |
| Dates | isoD | isoP | babip | FB | GB | LD | IFH | fb% | gb% | ld% | bb/pa | k/pa |
| 7/10-7/20 | .026 | .000 | .286 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0.0% | 90.0% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 29.0% |
FB: fly balls
GB: ground balls
LD: line drives
IFH: infield hits
woba: weighted on-base average
isoD: Isolated plate discipline (obp - avg)
isoP: Isolated power (slg - avg)
babip: batting average on balls in play
Yes. He’s hit 20 balls into play, and 18 of them were on the ground. Yes, he’s struck out almost one-third of the time. On the plus side, he’s only hit into one double play. So there’s that.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Which Players Have the Most/Least Hidden Value So Far in 2011?
I was goofing around with some of the stats on Fangraphs and elsewhere and thought it might be interesting to see which players’ values were perhaps obscured if you only looked at their batting lines. Here are the top 20, using Fangraphs’ baserunning stats, linear weights for stolen bases/caught stealing and an average of zone rating, DRS and UZR, which I’m labeling as aRS for average runs saved defensively. I think averaging several good defensive metrics tells us more than any single metric, but we should still be cognizant of the error bars inherent in the defensive numbers and what we think they tell us.
| Player | Team | SB/CS | aRS | BsR | Total |
| Elvis Andrus | Rangers | 4.6 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 19.8 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | 2.6 | 12.8 | 1.8 | 17.2 |
| Peter Bourjos | Angels | 0.9 | 10.2 | 1.8 | 12.9 |
| Ben Zobrist | Rays | 1.4 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 12.6 |
| Carlos Gomez | Brewers | 2.9 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 12.5 |
| Ian Kinsler | Rangers | 3.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 12.1 |
| Cameron Maybin | Padres | 2.8 | 7.4 | 1.8 | 12.0 |
| Howie Kendrick | Angels | 1.2 | 8.3 | 1.9 | 11.4 |
| Michael Bourn | Astros | 5.8 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 10.8 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | Red Sox | 2.4 | 7.8 | 0.4 | 10.6 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | Rockies | 0.6 | 10.4 | -0.5 | 10.5 |
| Alcides Escobar | Royals | 0.8 | 9.0 | 0.6 | 10.4 |
| Dustin Pedroia | Red Sox | 2.6 | 7.3 | 0.3 | 10.2 |
| Matt Wieters | Orioles | 0.2 | 10.0 | -0.2 | 10.0 |
| Ian Desmond | Nationals | 2.9 | 6.6 | 0.5 | 10.0 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | 0.5 | 9.2 | 0.3 | 10.0 |
| Pablo Sandoval | Giants | 0.1 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 9.8 |
| Gerardo Parra | Diamondbacks | 1.3 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 9.7 |
| Shane Victorino | Phillies | 2.1 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 9.6 |
| Brendan Ryan | Mariners | 0.8 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 9.1 |
I was expecting TSBG to top the list, but he’ll have to settle for second for now. I was surprised to see Alex Rodriguez so high up on the list, but he appears to be having a great defensive season, something that’s been magnified when we watch his current stand-in flailing and kicking and throwing the ball to the fans behind the home dugout.
And here are the 20 players whose value is most hurt by these statistics.
| Player | Team | SB/CS | aRS | BsR | Total |
| Mark Reynolds | Orioles | 0.3 | -20.5 | -0.6 | -20.8 |
| Yuniesky Betancourt | Brewers | -0.1 | -15.6 | 2.2 | -13.5 |
| Chris Johnson | Astros | -0.3 | -12.2 | -0.4 | -12.9 |
| Paul Konerko | White Sox | -0.2 | -5.1 | -7.0 | -12.3 |
| Aramis Ramirez | Cubs | -0.4 | -6.6 | -5.0 | -11.9 |
| Ryan Theriot | Cardinals | -0.6 | -10.9 | -0.3 | -11.8 |
| Yadier Molina | Cardinals | -1.7 | -7.0 | -2.4 | -11.1 |
| Wilson Valdez | Phillies | 0.4 | -9.9 | 0.0 | -9.4 |
| Miguel Cabrera | Tigers | -0.2 | -6.8 | -2.1 | -9.0 |
| Chipper Jones | Braves | -0.5 | -5.3 | -3.2 | -9.0 |
| Jhonny Peralta | Tigers | -0.8 | -6.5 | -1.7 | -8.9 |
| Raul Ibanez | Phillies | 0.4 | -9.9 | 0.5 | -8.9 |
| Ryan Howard | Phillies | 0.2 | -5.2 | -3.9 | -8.8 |
| Freddie Freeman | Braves | -0.7 | -6.3 | -1.5 | -8.5 |
| Felix Pie | Orioles | -0.3 | -8.1 | 0.0 | -8.4 |
| Cliff Pennington | Athletics | -1.3 | -5.5 | -1.3 | -8.1 |
| Eric Hosmer | Royals | 0.1 | -8.0 | 0.0 | -7.9 |
| Nate McLouth | Braves | -0.1 | -7.8 | 0.0 | -7.9 |
| Bill Hall | - - - | -0.1 | -7.5 | 0.0 | -7.6 |
| Danny Valencia | Twins | -1.1 | -6.0 | -0.4 | -7.5 |
And here’s the entire list of Yankees.
| Player | Team | SB/CS | aRS | BsR | Total |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | 2.6 | 12.8 | 1.8 | 17.2 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | 0.5 | 9.2 | 0.3 | 10.0 |
| Chris Dickerson | Yankees | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| Eric Chavez | Yankees | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | -0.3 | 4.2 | -3.1 | 0.8 |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Andruw Jones | Yankees | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Freddy Garcia | Yankees | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Bartolo Colon | Yankees | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Gustavo Molina | Yankees | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Brian Gordon | Yankees | 0.0 | -0.3 | 0.0 | -0.3 |
| Greg Golson | Yankees | 0.0 | -0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 |
| Boone Logan | Yankees | 0.0 | -0.6 | 0.0 | -0.6 |
| Jorge Posada | Yankees | -0.8 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -0.9 |
| Ramiro Pena | Yankees | 0.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | 1.3 | -6.2 | 3.9 | -1.0 |
| A.J. Burnett | Yankees | 0.0 | -1.1 | 0.0 | -1.1 |
| Francisco Cervelli | Yankees | 0.9 | -2.0 | 0.0 | -1.1 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.0 | -2.0 | 0.0 | -2.0 |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | 0.9 | -4.3 | 0.9 | -2.5 |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | 0.1 | -2.1 | -0.6 | -2.6 |
| Russell Martin | Yankees | 1.2 | -4.0 | 0.0 | -2.8 |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | 0.6 | -2.8 | -1.4 | -3.5 |
| Eduardo Nunez | Yankees | 0.9 | -5.1 | 0.0 | -4.2 |
Some of these numbers look off to me. Curtis Granderson hasn’t looked like anything worse than average in CF so far, and I’m a bit surprised to see Russell Martin so low on defense although he has allowed 56 SB which ranks fifth in the majors. I’m also fairly certain there’s no way Jorge Posada is any better than -20 in baserunning or that Eduardo Nunez is any better than -10 on defense. FWIW, Baseball Prospectus has Posada at -4.7 runs, which seems more realistic.
Sunday, July 17, 2011
NJ.com: Yankees’ Rafael Soriano, Eric Chavez judged ready for minor-league rehab stints
TORONTO — Set-up man Rafael Soriano and infielder Eric Chavez could be coming back at just the right time for the Yankees. Soriano and Chavez are supposed to begin minor-league rehab assignments on Tuesday, an encouraging sign for a team that could use their services.
Great news. Chavez will hopefully be able to play at least five innings in his first game back before re-injuring himself. That may not seem like much, but it will probably save at least two Eduardo Nunez errors.
As for Soriano, I really want him back ASAP. The odds of him opting out of his mind-bogglingly asinine contract are about as slim as the odds of Derek Jeter hitting a ball into the outfield, but they will only get worse if he can’t pitch at all.
Sunday, July 10, 2011
MLB.com: Knee surgery to shelve A-Rod at least a month
Dr. Lee Kaplan will perform the surgery at the University of Miami (Fla.), and the Yankees are not sure whether the four-to-six-week timetable is for Rodriguez’s return to the club, or when he could resume baseball activities and possibly begin a rehab stint in the Minors.
Obviously not good news, but it certainly seems that the knee injury has affected Rodriguez’s power, so I’d rather see him back at relatively full strength down the stretch than trying to play through it. If he did try to play, he’d almost certainly need to be rested frequently anyway.
So the question is how much it hurts the Yankees. The current depth chart is A-Rod at 3B, Jeter at SS and Nunez as backup IF. So now you’re looking at Nunez at 3B, Jeter at SS, and Pena as backup IF. The only other player on the active 40 man roster listed as an infielder is Brandon Laird,but he’s more a 3B in theory than in actuality, and it’s tough to see someone who’s OBP’ing .297 in AAA being of much use in the majors.
Four to six weeks is somewhat vague, but figure something like 120 PA of A-Rod, 120 PA of Jeter, and 40 PA of Nunez is now something like 120 PA of Nunez, 120 PA of Jeter, and 40 PA of Pena. Using their projections updated through today looks like this:
| PA | avg/obp/slg | wOBA | br | |
| A-Rod | 120 | .283/.367/.504 | .376 | 19 |
| Jeter | 120 | .275/.342/.373 | .321 | 13 |
| Nunez | 40 | .270/.306/.382 | .301 | 4 |
| Pena | 0 | .233/.278/.317 | .265 | 0 |
| Total | 280 | .341 | 36 | |
| PA | avg/obp/slg | wOBA | br | |
| A-Rod | 0 | .283/.367/.504 | .376 | 0 |
| Jeter | 120 | .275/.342/.373 | .321 | 13 |
| Nunez | 120 | .270/.306/.382 | .301 | 12 |
| Pena | 40 | .233/.278/.317 | .265 | 3 |
| Total | 280 | .304 | 29 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
br: Linear weights batting runs
So the net here is a loss of about seven runs on offense. It’s also worth mentioning that Rodriguez is having a great defensive season, so I’d expect a bit of a fall off there as well. So figure that having Rodriguez out for 120 PA is going to cost the Yankees about a win on paper. We have no idea how it will actually play out of course.
Not great news, but not dire either.
Saturday, July 9, 2011
Yankees.com: Jeter joins elite group with 3,000th hit
Jeter became the 28th player to reach the historic plateau, belting the eighth pitch of his third-inning at-bat against the left-handed Price into the left-field seats on a sun-splashed afternoon at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees’ bench and bullpen emptied to greet Jeter as he rounded the bases and touched home plate, and the Rays’ players spilled onto the field out of the visitors’ dugout, applauding Jeter’s achievement as the scoreboard flashed, “Congratulations, Derek.”
We can be a cynical lot here at times, myself as bad as anyone, but if you didn’t enjoy the way Jeter got his 3000th hit and went 5 for 5 and drove in the winning run in the same game, you should probably pick something else to watch.
I tend to be forward-thinking here, but it’s not a bad day to think back to the player that Jeter once was, a player that we got a glimpse of today. We’ve been lucky to have him on our favorite team, warts and all.
That may not be true post-April 2010, but we can worry about that again tomorrow.
Jeter’s post-game interview with Kim Jones seemed like the most heart-felt and genuine one I’ve ever seen him give. He seemed genuinely emotional and that was kind of cool too.
Congratulations to Jeter. Now let’s get to 4192.





Friday, July 8, 2011
Washington Post: Jeter moved to 2nd spot in Yankees’ lineup, is 2 hits from 3,000
Jeter is in a 4-for-18 rut since coming off the disabled list last week because of a strained calf. All of those at-bats came with him at the top of the batting order. Brett Gardner was set to hit leadoff against the Rays.
It’s Friday, so I’d suggest doing something besides watching tonight’s game. Or at least get good and loaded before first pitch so you won’t care as much. Here’s the lineup:
Gardner LF
Jeter SS
Granderson CF
Teixeira 1B
Cano 2B
Posada DH
Jones RF
Nunez 3B
Cervelli C
If guys are hurt, or need a day off, there’s not much you can do about it I guess. It just seems odd to me that it always seems to come in bunches.
NY Post: Jeter knocks No. 2,998, but Yankees fall out of first place
For a player who has defined winning, there is something wrong with Derek Jeter’s slow march to 3,000 hits. As he inches closer to the historic milestone the Yankees are losing and have slipped out of first place in the AL East.
First place was fun while it lasted. Congratulations to Boston on their AL East championship.
I don’t think it’s Jeter’s fault that the Yankees have lost three of four since his return from the DL, but he’s not exactly helping things with his .263 OBP out of the leadoff position. Last night’s game was tough to take because the Yankees were facing the worst of the four pitchers they’ll be facing in this series and were probably pitching their second-best starter. Without crunching the numbers I’m pretty sure their win probability will be significantly lower in each of the next three games.
The Yankees play the Rays seven more times over their next 12 games, including four in Tampa Bay, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that those are the most important games of the year.
Thursday, July 7, 2011
When Might Derek Jeter Get His Big Hit?
Out of curiosity, I ran an up-to-date projected Jeter through the rest of July against the teams and pitchers he’d probably be facing to see how long it took him to get three hits, which would give him the magic number of 3185 for his career. Here are the percentages of times he got his third hit on each of the dates listed:
| Date | %Likelihood |
| 7/7/2011 | 13.4% |
| 7/8/2011 | 31.8% |
| 7/9/2011 | 22.4% |
| 7/10/2011 | 13.9% |
| 7/14/2011 | 8.2% |
| 7/15/2011 | 3.1% |
| 7/16/2011 | 2.8% |
| 7/17/2011 | 2.0% |
| 7/18/2011 | 0.9% |
| 7/19/2011 | 0.9% |
| 7/20/2011 | 0.3% |
| 7/22/2011 | 0.3% |
I haven’t accounted for an injury or the highly plausible scenario of Jeter never getting another hit ever again, so you may want to keep that in mind. But it looks like we won’t be seeing “history” tonight.
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Yankees.com: Hughes progresses, but Yanks can’t help
CLEVELAND—Phil Hughes returned with five innings that flashed promise for the rest of his season on Wednesday night, but Justin Masterson gathered more buzz with his effort, dealing the Yankees a commanding 5-3 loss to the Indians.
Masterson silenced the Bombers’ bats over eight dominant innings as the Yankees lost two of three in Cleveland, completing their six-game road trip with an even record.
One of New York’s three hits off Masterson came off the bat of shortstop Derek Jeter, who talked his way into the starting lineup and doubled with one out in the eighth inning for career hit No. 2,997.
To quote David Cone, it was Hughes’s best start of the year, but that isn’t saying a lot.
I don’t understand a universe where pitching Sergio Mitre in a 3-0 game in the eighth inning makes sense, but even if the Yankees had pitched a scoreless eighth that just means they’d have faced Chris Perez to start the ninth and he pretty much mowed them down once he came in. Really, the Yankees lost this game when Justin Masterson took the mound. They hit some balls well throughout the game, but a few nice catches and a pair of game-saving plays by Asdrubal Cabrera in the eighth effectively ended any realistic chance they had of winning tonight.
The story tonight was Hughes though.
The Good
His velocity was a lot better than it’s been this year, particularly early on. It dipped a bit as the innings went on, but his last two fastballs of the night were still clocked at 92 and 91 mph respectively.
He went five innings and only gave up two runs.
The Bad
Unfortunately, pretty much everything else. Hughes faced 25 batters and 10 of them reached base safely. If Cleveland hadn’t stranded 8 of those 10 runners, Hughes’s line could have been really ugly.
Of the 87 pitches Hughes threw, Cleveland batters swung and missed exactly two of them (one changeup and one curve).
The Ugly
According to FIP or xFIP, Hughes was actually lucky to only have allowed two runs.
Here are some charts comparing Hughes’s basic Pitch F/X data from 2010, 2011 prior to tonight, and tonight.
Average velocity by pitch type
| Date | FA-Vel | CU-Vel | FC-Vel | CH-Vel | Pitches |
| 2010 | 92.5 | 75.8 | 88.8 | 84.5 | 3003 |
| 2011 | 89.3 | 72.1 | 84.1 | 81.2 | 207 |
| 6-Jul | 91.5 | 74.3 | 88.5 | 83.6 | 87 |
Average horizontal break by pitch type
| Date | FA-X | CU-X | FC-X | CH-X | Pitches |
| 2010 | -5.7 | 6 | -0.4 | -9.3 | 3003 |
| 2011 | -4.3 | 6.7 | 1 | -7.5 | 207 |
| 6-Jul | -3.7 | 6.8 | 0.9 | -8.5 | 87 |
Average vertical break by pitch type
| Date | FA-Z | CU-Z | FC-Z | CH-Z | Pitches |
| 2010 | 10.2 | -8.7 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3003 |
| 2011 | 11.4 | -6.5 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 207 |
| 6-Jul | 7.5 | -8.2 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 87 |
FA: Fastball
CU: Changeup
FC: Cut Fastball
CH: Changeup
I don’t know how much we should make of most of the variations within this data. It could as easily be a calibration issue as anything, but I think the velocity data should be somewhat informative. Hughes was closer to his 2010 self stuff-wise in this start than he’s been this season. So I think we’re now almost back to where we were at the end of 2010, with the Hughes that was not nearly as effective in the second half of the season as he was in the first half.
That’s a far sight better than the Hughes that wasn’t a major league pitcher anymore, but there’s obviously still a lot of work to be done here. He’s certainly going to get another start, so let’s hope he takes another step forward.
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
Yankees.com: Granderson helps CC torch former club
CLEVELAND—On a night when Derek Jeter moved two hits closer to 3,000 and Curtis Granderson homered twice, CC Sabathia loomed largest, striking out 11 as the Yankees defeated the Indians, 9-2, at Progressive Field.
Overlooked for the American League All-Star team, Sabathia won his fifth consecutive start, shutting out the Tribe over seven innings and striking out the side in three separate frames.
I’m glad CC’s not going to the All Star Game, I’d rather see him saving his pitches for games that matter. I don’t want any Yankees helping Boston’s quest for home field advantage in the World Series.
FWIW, according to Baseball Reference Sabathia only ranked 10th in WAR among pitchers entering tonight (in a tie with a few others), so he’s not necessarily the All Star snub the MSM is making him out to be. His seven scoreless innings dropped his ERA to 2.90 so I’m sure he’s moved up the list a bit though.
Nice win to break a two-game schneid that really could have been part of 10 game winning streak, but all eyes will be on Phil Hughes tomorrow. If he’s able to show us that he’s closer to what he was in 2010, I’m pretty sure this is the best team in baseball.
At least until Rafael Soriano returns.
NJ.com: Cashman mocks Trenton Thunder uniforms used in final Jeter rehab appearance
“We had a tough loss against the Mets (Sunday), so I was like ‘Derek I’m going to take a picture of you in this uniform here and I’m going to lift our guys’ spirits (in New York),” Cashman said. “... and I’m also going to send the message: try to do everything you can to not get injured so you don’t wind up in a minor league rehab assignment wearing a uniform looking like this.”
I am now convinced that Brian Cashman is actually a honey badger.
Seriously though, it’s tough to find fault when critiquing this:
Monday, July 4, 2011
USA Today: Derek Jeter finishes rehab stint, set to join Yankees Monday
TRENTON, N.J. (AP) — Derek Jeter went 1-for-2 with a bunt single, a walk and a throwing error in six innings Sunday night in his second rehab start with Class AA Trenton as he looks to return from a right calf strain.
A throwing error? Great.
In other stuff:
NY Post: Nova deep-sixed from crowded Yankees rotation
NY Post: Yankees’ Rivera blows first save vs. rival since ‘99
Sunday, July 3, 2011
NY Post: Sherman: Nunez to get an undeserved seat
“All the Reyes talk I had yesterday, maybe [Nunez] took it a little personal,” A-Rod said. “He’s been incredible.”
Maybe the league will catch up to him, or maybe Jeter will reach into the past this second half, be able to resuscitate brilliance. Maybe Jeter will get to the point at which he plays regularly rather than Nunez based on current events, not iconic standing.
For now, though, the best Yankees shortstop is about to become a backup player again.
Let the controversy begin!
Nunez projected to hit around .270/.300/.375 entering the season, and he hasn’t really played enough to change that projection significantly. That doesn’t mean he’s not better than that, but we do have to remember that as well as he’s hit of late, it’s still only a small set of PA.
Jeter’s going forward projection is somewhere in the .280/.340/.380 area. The same thing applies with Jeter, in that we don’t know if he’s actually better or worse than that. Whether he is or he isn’t, he can over or under-perform that over the rest of the year for no reason other than the vagaries of small sample size.
Interestingly, Nunez’s 80% CAIRO forecast is about .280/.320/.400. Can anyone guess the significance of that?
Anyway, between the uncertainty of his offensive projection going forward and the fact that his defense is still what some would charitably call an unmitigated disaster, I don’t think replacing Nunez with Jeter is a short-term downgrade. The Yankees haven’t been winning because Jeter’s been out of the lineup. They’ve been winning because people like Nick Swisher and Jorge Posada started hitting like they were expected to.
Friday, July 1, 2011
A List
Below is the list of shortstops who’ve played at least 200 innings in a full season and had a fielding percentage of less than .900. Fielding percentage isn’t a great measure of overall defensive value, but it’s fine if you understand that all it’s really telling you is a player’s error rate.
Eduardo Nunez in 2011: .892
The worst full seasons are:
Juan Beniquez in 1972: .900
Orlando Ramirez in 1975: .905
Erick Almonte in 2003: .906 (blast from the past)
Kurt Abbott in 1998: .909
Jerry Buchek in 1961: .912
With Derek Jeter’s pending return, Nunez may or may not have the opportunity to maintain his spot, but we’ll see how it goes.
Star-Ledger: Derek Jeter to play in Trenton this weekend before returning to Yankees
NEW YORK — Derek Jeter will play in two rehab games in Trenton this weekend before rejoining the Yankees on Monday in Cleveland in his run for 3,000 hits.
“I feel good now,” Jeter told reporters after working out at the Yankees’ minor-league complex in Tampa, Fla. “I’m ready to get out of here.”
Eduardo Nunez will have three more games to showcase his fielding skills.
Also, here’s a quick look at how Swisher has turned it around in the last month (below the break):


Most of Swisher's success has come off the hard stuff. All 7 of his left-handed home runs have been off fastballs, as have 5 of his 9 doubles.
I also just wanted to let you all know that I'll be covering the first game of the subway series for Stats Inc., and I hope to be able to update the site with anything interesting. I also plan on taking in the second game as well, because I just love interleague play so much....
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
NY Post: Posada says Yankees still need Jeter
You can pound Zack Greinke and the Brewers on a sultry summer night at the Stadium late in June, and watch the kid shortstop single and walk and steal second base, and hear the drumbeat grow that the Yankees are better without Derek Jeter. It is knee-jerk madness, and no one knows this better than Jorge Posada.
“I don’t see that. Nobody in this organization sees that,” Posada told The Post before Yankees 12, Brewers 2. “Derek Jeter belongs in this organization, and they need him to be here. He is the guy that we look up to and the leader of this team. . . . [He’s] the guy that keeps doing and he’s going to keep doing what he needs to do to bring winning baseball to this organization.”
I think it’s safe to cross GM off Posada’s post-playing career options.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
NY Times: Yankees’ Jeter Runs the Bases
TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter has run the bases for the first time, a key step in his rehabilitation program for a strained right calf.
The Yankees captain ran from home to first four times, first to second three times and first to third once on Tuesday at the team’s minor league complex.
Shouldn’t Jeter be spending time doing things he might actually have to do in a real game?
Also, right-hander Bartolo Colon, sidelined with a strained right hamstring, practiced bunting, a sign that he could pitch in his weekend’s interleague road series against the New York Mets.
Colon, coming off a 60-pitch, four-inning simulated game on Monday, also threw long toss, ran sprints and did agility drills.
I’d probably just as soon rather see Colon stay on the DL until after stupid interleague play. While the likelihood of him reaching base is slim, it’s still an unnecessary risk.
Thursday, June 23, 2011
NJ.com: Carig: Derek Jeter questionable for quick return to Yankees as pain remains
NEW YORK — Derek Jeter tried to talk the Yankees out of putting him on the disabled list, for fear that he’d be ready well before he would be eligible to return. But it’s looking more and more as if the Yankees made the right decision by putting him on the shelf.
Jeter may not be ready to return next Thursday, the first day he would be eligible to come off the disabled list, on which he is recovering from a right calf strain.
I’m half-watching the Philly/Cardinals game, and between innings they went to the MLB network studios and I heard a comment about injury news regarding Derek Jeter and Yankee fans not liking it. So a quick Google turned up this story.
Are Yankee fans really not going to like this news?
NY Post: Swisher & Gardner fine, but Yankees’ leadoff job still Jeter’s
CINCINNATI—Ask him tomorrow and Joe Girardi’s answer will be the same as it was Tuesday and yesterday: When Derek Jeter returns to the Yankees, he is going to bat first.
“These guys have done a great job,” Girardi said of Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner, who after yesterday’s doubleheader split with the Reds are batting a combined .316 (12-for-38) in the leadoff spot since Jeter went on the disabled list. “I will put him in the leadoff spot. He has been our leadoff hitter all year.”
I re-ran CAIRO for the Yankees’ 2011 starters through yesterday to see how they project now. First, here are the team’s overall projections. I haven’t messed with run environment, but since this is a comparison in a vacuum it doesn’t matter.
| Team | Yankees | Overall Projected | ||||
| Player | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | wOBA | Outs | BR |
| Derek Jeter | SS | 5.0 | .283/.353/.388 | .332 | 3.2 | 0.58 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | 5.0 | .259/.340/.494 | .358 | 3.3 | 0.72 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | 5.0 | .270/.372/.517 | .383 | 3.1 | 0.80 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 5.0 | .283/.371/.521 | .383 | 3.1 | 0.80 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 5.0 | .304/.352/.514 | .371 | 3.2 | 0.76 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 5.0 | .254/.356/.453 | .354 | 3.2 | 0.69 |
| Jorge Posada | DH | 4.0 | .257/.346/.440 | .344 | 2.6 | 0.52 |
| Russell Martin | C | 4.0 | .258/.359/.391 | .338 | 2.6 | 0.48 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 4.0 | .275/.359/.389 | .334 | 2.6 | 0.48 |
| Total | 42.0 | .272/.357/.460 | .356 | 27.0 | 5.83 |
Derek Jeter projects as the worst hitter on the team at this point, albeit only slightly worse than Brett Gardner and Russell Martin. I probably shouldn’t have to tell readers of this blog that using a lineup that ensures your worst hitter bats more than anyone else is not optimal.
That doesn’t mean Jeter shouldn’t leadoff some times. Here are the team’s projections vs. LHP.
| Team | Yankees | Vs. LHP Projected | ||||
| Player | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | wOBA | Outs | BR |
| Derek Jeter | SS | 5.0 | .302/.376/.413 | .354 | 3.1 | 0.64 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | 5.0 | .224/.294/.428 | .310 | 3.5 | 0.52 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | 5.0 | .275/.380/.527 | .390 | 3.1 | 0.76 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 5.0 | .288/.378/.530 | .389 | 3.1 | 0.78 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 5.0 | .291/.337/.492 | .356 | 3.3 | 0.68 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 4.9 | .264/.370/.470 | .367 | 3.1 | 0.71 |
| Jorge Posada | DH | 4.0 | .259/.348/.443 | .346 | 2.6 | 0.48 |
| Russell Martin | C | 4.0 | .274/.381/.415 | .359 | 2.5 | 0.54 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 4.0 | .258/.336/.364 | .313 | 2.7 | 0.45 |
| Total | 41.9 | .271/.356/.457 | .355 | 27.0 | 5.55 |
I’d forgotten how abysmal PREKL Granderson had been against lefties, although he’s bumped his projection up by about .020 wOBA against lefties this year. Jeter’s projection is very good for a leadoff hitter against LHP, and he’s actually hit slightly better than that vs. LHP so far this year (.299/.405/.403). A combination of high OBP and middling slugging is a good fit for leadoff.
The problem is that the Yankees only play about 1/3 to 1/4 of their games against lefties.
| Team | Yankees | Vs. RHP Projected | ||||
| Player | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | wOBA | Outs | BR |
| Derek Jeter | SS | 5.0 | .277/.345/.379 | .325 | 3.3 | 0.56 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | 5.0 | .271/.355/.516 | .374 | 3.2 | 0.79 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | 5.0 | .268/.369/.512 | .379 | 3.2 | 0.81 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 5.0 | .282/.369/.518 | .381 | 3.2 | 0.80 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 5.0 | .309/.359/.524 | .378 | 3.2 | 0.80 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 5.0 | .250/.351/.446 | .348 | 3.2 | 0.68 |
| Jorge Posada | DH | 4.0 | .256/.345/.439 | .344 | 2.6 | 0.54 |
| Russell Martin | C | 4.0 | .253/.352/.383 | .332 | 2.6 | 0.47 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 4.0 | .280/.366/.397 | .341 | 2.5 | 0.49 |
| Total | 42.0 | .273/.357/.461 | .357 | 27.0 | 5.94 |
This is the biggest problem. Jeter’s by far the worst hitter on the team vs. RHP. In general, each lineup slot gets about 0.1 PA more per game than the next one. So far this year the Yankees’ leadoff hitters have 349 PA and their #9 hitters have 279, which is effectively the same thing. So If Jeter’s getting 4.8 PA a game, the #9 hitter is getting 3.8. The Yankees have played 73 games this season, and have faced RHP in 1991 PA and LHP in 848 PA. If they face the same ratio over the rest of the year they’re looking at another 2427 PA vs. RHP and 1034 vs. LHP. I’ll use that as a proxy and say we should probably expect them to faced RHP in about 70% of their remaining 89 games. If Jeter hits leadoff and Gardner hits ninth in those games, then Jeter will come to the plate about 58 more times than Gardner. Since we have injuries/rest days etc., knock that down to about 50 PA.
The difference in run value of those 50 PA vs. RHP using Jeter and Gardner’s revised CAIRO projections vs. RHP which is calculated as Gardner wOBA vs RHP minus Jeter wOBA vs. RHP divided by 1.15 times 50 PA is 0.7 runs,
So yeah, as annoying as it is to see Jeter leading off, if he’s going to play anyway it doesn’t really matter all that much. Of course, you may think the projections overrate Jeter and/or underrate Gardner which widens the gap.
So no, batting Jeter leadoff against all pitching is not optimal, but it’s probably not going to be the reason if the Yankees fail to reach their goals this year.
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
THT: Derek Jeter and the delayed milestone
Instead, on June 13, Derek Jeter tweaked his leg, sustaining a Grade One calf injury. Sitting on 2,994 hits, Jeter went to the DL for the first time in eight years. Bad timing, to be sure.
That just leads to a question: What precedent is there for a player on the verge of a massive milestone having to experience an extended pause like this?
I seriously haven’t missed Jeter at all. Eduardo Nunez has hit .308/.379/.462 since Jeter went on the DL while playing flawless defense. Well, maybe not flawless.
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| Inn | Ch | PM | E | ZR | CH/9 | RS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 77 | 56 | 7 | .732 | 5.18 | -6.0 |
| 505 | 202 | 170 | 4 | .841 | 3.60 | 1.8 |
Inn: Defensive innings at shortstop
Ch: Field-able chances defined by zone rating.
PM: Plays made (Ch converted to outs)
E: Errors
ZR: Zone rating (percentage of Ch converted into outs, aka PM/Ch)
CH/9: Field-able chances per nine innings
RS: Runs saved compared to an average AL SS over the player’s Ch seen
The first row is Nunez’s YTD defensive stats at shortstop, and the second row is Jeter.
Sample size caveats apply as always, but this seems to match what I’ve seen. Nunez gets to more balls than Jeter, he just doesn’t necessarily do well when he gets there. It’s probably easier to fix errors than it is to fix range, which might bode well for Nunez in the future.
I don’t know whether Nunez can end up as a starting shortstop on a good team, but I don’t know that he can’t either.
Friday, June 17, 2011
Father’s Day Yankee Trivia Contest
As part of a promotion for A&E’s release of YANKEEOGRAPHY: THE CORE FOUR COLLECTION DVDs, I’m running a trivia contest.

There are three prizes to give away, so the first three people who email me the correct answer to the following questions will each get a copy of the DVDs.
1) Much has been made of Derek Jeter nearing his 3000th hit. Jeter already leads the Yankee franchise in hits. What no one talks about is that Jeter also leads the Yankee franchise in outs made. He’s at 7048 outs made in his career, defining outs as at bats minus hits plus sac flies and bunts and caught stealings and double plays.
Can you name the rest of the players in the top 10 for Yankee outs made in their career?
2) Despite that somewhat dubious achievement, Jeter does not have the top single Yankee season in terms of outs made. In fact, Jeter’s 2010 which was his highest amount of outs made in his career doesn’t crack the top seven. Four individual players are responsible for those seven seasons. Can you name all four?
The first three people to email me with the correct answers to both questions get a copy of the Core 4 DVD set. You can either email me through the site’s email function or at sg_at_rlyw.net, replacing _at_ with @. I’ll update this post with the answers when I’ve got three winners.
If you just want to get the DVDs without dealing with the question, the link to purchase them is here
Thursday, June 16, 2011
Ground Balls Per Plate Appearance - Top Ten Seasons
Data only covers 2002-2011
| PlayerYear | PA | GB | GB/PA |
| Luis Castillo2007 | 615 | 330 | 53.7% |
| Ichiro Suzuki2004 | 762 | 406 | 53.3% |
| Derek Jeter2011 | 293 | 156 | 53.2% |
| Luis Castillo2004 | 649 | 322 | 49.6% |
| Luis Castillo2002 | 668 | 331 | 49.6% |
| Derek Jeter2010 | 739 | 365 | 49.4% |
| Skip Schumaker2009 | 586 | 286 | 48.8% |
| Luis Castillo2006 | 652 | 316 | 48.5% |
| Luis Castillo2005 | 524 | 252 | 48.1% |
| Ichiro Suzuki2008 | 749 | 356 | 47.5% |
Logic says Jeter should top this list in 2012, but I wouldn’t rule out him forcing his way to the top in 2011.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Trying to put 2011 Offense in Context
One of the things that’s made 2011 seem somewhat frustrating for me to watch at times this year is what appears to be poor performances by many of the key Yankee offensive players. Obviously there’s no way to spin Nick Swisher’s season as anything but awful, and Jorge Posada’s season long performance is lousy for a DH although there are signs of life lately.
The thing that I haven’t really gotten a good handle on is how the run environment of the 2011 AL has changed compared to the recent past and what that means as far as how we should look at player and team performance to this point.
Here are the AL league averages from 2009-2010 pro-rated to 2520 PA to match 2011.
| Year | Tm | R/G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BR | GDP | HBP | BABIP |
| 2009 | LgAvg | 4.82 | 2520 | 2245 | 315 | 599 | 119 | 11 | 74 | 301 | 44 | 16 | 222 | 441 | .267 | .336 | .428 | .764 | 312 | 52 | 21 | .300 |
| 2010 | LgAvg | 4.45 | 2520 | 2251 | 293 | 585 | 117 | 11 | 64 | 279 | 44 | 16 | 214 | 442 | .260 | .327 | .407 | .734 | 291 | 52 | 21 | .295 |
| 2011 | LgAvg | 4.33 | 2520 | 2251 | 285 | 571 | 115 | 12 | 61 | 271 | 46 | 19 | 213 | 437 | .254 | .322 | .397 | .719 | 279 | 52 | 22 | .288 |
The drop between 2009 and 2010 was bigger than the drop from 2010 to 2011 but it doesn’t feel like that to me. It looks like the drop from 2009 to 2011 can be attributed in equal parts to HRs and a drop in BABIP. On a league-wide level, a drop in BABIP is almost certainly more meaningful than a similar drop would be for an individual player or team. It could be due to changes in environment, or due to teams seeking new ways to improve their defense, or many other reasons. What I don’t know is if things will stay at this level through year-end.
I thought that adjusting the player’s lines to account for the change between 2009-2011 might give us get a better idea of how they’ve performed relative to their environment on a scale that matches more typical expectations. So I just multiplied all the component stats by their ratio of an average for 2009-10 compared to 2011.
| Player | 2011 | a2011 |
| Russell Martin | .232/.338/.429 | .241/.348/.450 |
| Mark Teixeira# | .250/.368/.534 | .259/.377/.562 |
| Robinson Cano* | .285/.327/.500 | .295/.337/.525 |
| Derek Jeter | .260/.324/.324 | .269/.334/.341 |
| Alex Rodriguez | .284/.362/.511 | .294/.372/.537 |
| Brett Gardner* | .272/.351/.418 | .282/.361/.440 |
| Curtis Granderson* | .278/.351/.605 | .288/.362/.636 |
| Nick Swisher# | .221/.344/.343 | .229/.354/.361 |
| Jorge Posada# | .226/.321/.375 | .234/.331/.394 |
| Andruw Jones | .215/.282/.431 | .223/.291/.453 |
| Eduardo Nunez | .214/.254/.339 | .222/.262/.357 |
| Francisco Cervelli | .191/.250/.298 | .198/.256/.313 |
| Eric Chavez* | .303/.410/.424 | .314/.423/.446 |
| Chris Dickerson* | .333/.412/.467 | .345/.420/.490 |
| Gustavo Molina | .167/.167/.333 | .173/.173/.350 |
| Team Totals | .256/.339/.446 | .265/.349/.469 |
Suddenly some of those lines look a bit better.
Monday, June 13, 2011
Yanks held in check, lose Jeter in defeat
NEW YORK—A.J. Burnett gave up a fourth-inning RBI single, the only dent in a sharp pitchers’ duel, but it may not have been the most costly event in a 1-0 Yankees loss to the Indians on Monday.
Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter led off the game with a single, his 2,994th career hit, but the captain’s chase to become the 28th member of the 3,000-hit club may have been dealt a blow by a sore right calf.
I’m just tired of hearing about Jeter’s quest for hit # 3000, and now we have to hear about it for even longer. Hopefully he won’t miss too much time, because I have a feeling that the more we see Eduardo Nunez the more we’ll miss Jeter.
Friday, June 10, 2011
Yahoo: Joba’s injury leaves dark cloud over Yankees
The AL East has become the game’s most competitive division again with Toronto and Baltimore surging. Suddenly, the doomsday scenario where the Yankees tumble toward last place rather than surge for a division title isn’t so implausible.
Almost as if to prove the Yankees are indeed still the Yankees, Cashman looked toward the dugout of the Red Sox – a team that had already beaten his club seven out of eight times this year – and said: “We are certainly capable of beating those guys that’s for sure.”
Yeah Cashman, they have sure shown that they’re capable of beating Boston this year.
I can’t think of a series that was as flat out putrid as this one. I just hope that the Yankees resist the urge to make more stupid moves to shore up the bullpen, since they’ve done such a crappy job of putting one together and it’s done nothing but cost them money and wins and draft picks. They should sink with who they have on hand, and audition some of their minor leaguers to see who can be part of a good Yankee team in 2012.
The Yankees can still win the East, but in order to do it they’re going to need A.J. Burnett to pitch better than he has, they’re going to need almost every hitter in the lineup to hit better than they have, they’re going to need Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon to stay healthy and reasonably effective, and they’re going to need people like Boone Logan and Luis Ayala to be good in the bullpen, and they’re going to need to replace Ivan Nova with Roy Halladay.
The odds of all those things happening are about the same as the odds of the Yankees beating Boston.
But hey, at least we get to watch Derek Jeter get his 3000th hit.
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Just How Awful Have The Yankees Been Against Boston?
The Yankees dropped their seventh game in eight tries against the Red Sox last night in yet another inspired effort. It’s been frustrating to see the way the Yankees have rolled over for the Red Sox this year. What they’ve done is spotted Boston a six game advantage in the standings.
We know the won/loss record is bad. It’s even worse when you realize they’ve played three games in Boston and five(soon to be six) in New York and are on the verge of being swept at home twice. After today the Yankees will only play Boston three more times at home and they still have to play them six times in Fenway, which rarely goes well.
For a team to go 1-7 against another team while playing five of those eight games at home, they’d have to be around a 49 win team playing against a 113 win team. At this point I don’t doubt the Red Sox are better than the Yankees, but I’m not sure that they’re 65 wins better.
So let’s assign the blame.
| Player | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | HBP | K | SB | CS | GDP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAA |
| Russell Martin | 27 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .227 | .370 | .636 | 5 | 2 |
| Robinson Cano | 32 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .286 | .375 | .500 | 5 | 2 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.333 | 2 | 2 |
| Eric Chavez | 8 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .750 | 2 | 1 |
| Curtis Granderson | 36 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .219 | .306 | .500 | 5 | 1 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 32 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .207 | .281 | .448 | 4 | 0 |
| Jorge Posada | 16 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .286 | .375 | .286 | 2 | 0 |
| Andruw Jones | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .182 | .182 | .455 | 1 | 0 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .286 | .167 | 0 | 0 |
| Brett Gardner | 31 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .192 | .323 | .308 | 3 | -1 |
| Nick Swisher | 32 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .207 | .281 | .310 | 3 | -1 |
| Derek Jeter | 39 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .194 | .256 | .222 | 1 | -3 |
| Mark Teixeira | 34 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .138 | .235 | .138 | 1 | -3 |
| Total | 309 | 34 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 7 | 71 | 5 | 2 | 4 | .227 | .314 | .388 | 34 | 0 |
| AL Avg | 309 | 35 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 6 | .253 | .321 | .396 | 34 | 0 |
BR are linear weights batting runs. BRAA are BR above an average AL hitter, not adjusted for position.
Because the offense in MLB is down significantly this year, while that line looks awful relative to our normal context, in the context of today’s AL it’s not that bad. AL average line right now is .253/.321/.396. We also don’t know if that performance is good or bad in the context of the “strength” of the Yankees and the strength of the Red Sox. It’s really only useful in terms of comparing how the players stack up against each other. In this case you can see the Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira are the chief problems on offense, but there’s a whole lot of stinking going on there.
The team’s actual runs scored are a direct match for their batting runs, which indicates they’ve scored as many runs as they should have given their component stats and have not been unlucky or lucky in terms of how their performance has translated to runs on the scoreboard.
There’s more blame to dish out!
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | K | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAA |
| Freddy Garcia | 8.0 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 11.25 | 10.13 | 8.87 | -6.2 |
| A.J. Burnett | 5.7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12.71 | 11.12 | 6.22 | -5.3 |
| Phil Hughes | 2.0 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | 27.00 | 12.37 | -5.0 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 3.7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12.27 | 12.27 | 9.42 | -3.3 |
| Lance Pendleton | 1.7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16.20 | 16.20 | 19.67 | -2.2 |
| Ivan Nova | 4.3 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8.31 | 8.31 | 4.25 | -1.9 |
| CC Sabathia | 12.3 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 5.11 | 5.11 | 4.49 | -1.1 |
| Bartolo Colon | 10.3 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 4.35 | 2.61 | 3.55 | -0.1 |
| Rafael Soriano | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.87 | 0.5 |
| Mariano Rivera | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.87 | 0.5 |
| Hector Noesi | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.20 | 0.9 |
| David Robertson | 4.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2.25 | 0.00 | 3.12 | 0.9 |
| Boone Logan | 4.7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 3.08 | 1.2 |
| Luis Ayala | 5.3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 2.5 |
| Total | 70.0 | 80 | 52 | 47 | 12 | 42 | 4 | 52 | 6.69 | 6.04 | 5.58 | -18.7 |
| AL Avg | 70 | 67 | 33 | 30 | 7 | 25 | 3 | 52 | 4.28 | 3.91 | 3.91 | 0.0 |
RSAA are runs saved compared to an average pitcher using RA vs. league average RA. FIP is Fielding-independent pitching which focuses on a pitcher’s HR, BB/HBP and Ks against. Again, neither of these account for the context of the opponent so it’s more for comparison among Yankees.
I’m thinking the Yankees may want to skip Freddy Garcia’s next turn against Boston. The Yankees have allowed 52 total runs against Boston, and according to linear weights they should have allowed 49, so just like on offense there’s no evidence of bad luck here. They’ve pitched as poorly as the basic stats say they did. The Yankees have a team BABIP against of .281 this season against everyone but Boston. Against Boston it’s .311. Whether that’s on the pitchers or the defense or some combination of both, I don’t know.
It’s sad, but it’s gotten to the point where I am not even bothering to watch these games. When you finish dinner and turn on the game and see your team is already down 3-0 before they’ve even gotten an out, why watch?
I’d like to say I have a good feeling about CC Sabathia going today, but unfortunately with the Yankee offense backing him you get the feeling that anything less than perfection won’t be good enough.
Again, I’ll say I don’t think the Red Sox are 65 wins better than the Yankees. 60, maybe.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
MLB Leaders in Outs Made through May 25, 2011
I was wondering if Derek Jeter had made more outs than anyone else in MLB so far this season, given the fact that he’s the leadoff hitter for MLB’s best offense with an anemic OBP. Here are the top 50, defining outs as at bats minus hits plus sac bunts/flies plus GDP + caught stealing.
| Player | Team | Lg | Outs |
| Martin Prado | Braves | NL | 171 |
| Juan Pierre | White Sox | AL | 165 |
| Albert Pujols | Cardinals | NL | 164 |
| Dan Uggla | Braves | NL | 164 |
| Torii Hunter | Angels | AL | 162 |
| Chris Young | Diamondbacks | NL | 162 |
| Austin Jackson | Tigers | AL | 159 |
| Jimmy Rollins | Phillies | NL | 157 |
| Chone Figgins | Mariners | AL | 157 |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | AL | 155 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | Mariners | AL | 154 |
| Ian Kinsler | Rangers | AL | 154 |
| Alex Rios | White Sox | AL | 154 |
| Elvis Andrus | Rangers | AL | 152 |
| Jose Reyes | Mets | NL | 151 |
| Carl Crawford | Red Sox | AL | 151 |
| Melky Cabrera | Royals | AL | 150 |
| Alexei Ramirez | White Sox | AL | 150 |
| Drew Stubbs | Reds | NL | 150 |
| Adrian Beltre | Rangers | AL | 150 |
| Aubrey Huff | Giants | NL | 149 |
| Michael Bourn | Astros | NL | 148 |
| Hunter Pence | Astros | NL | 147 |
| Nick Markakis | Orioles | AL | 147 |
| Casey McGehee | Brewers | NL | 147 |
| Dustin Pedroia | Red Sox | AL | 147 |
| Justin Upton | Diamondbacks | NL | 147 |
| Chris Coghlan | Marlins | NL | 147 |
| Danny Valencia | Twins | AL | 147 |
| Kelly Johnson | Diamondbacks | NL | 147 |
| Rickie Weeks | Brewers | NL | 146 |
| Omar Infante | Marlins | NL | 146 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | Indians | AL | 146 |
| Dexter Fowler | Rockies | NL | 146 |
| Hanley Ramirez | Marlins | NL | 146 |
| Daric Barton | Athletics | AL | 146 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | Red Sox | AL | 145 |
| Alex Gonzalez | Braves | NL | 145 |
| Ryan Howard | Phillies | NL | 145 |
| Ryan Ludwick | Padres | NL | 145 |
| Alex Gordon | Royals | AL | 144 |
| Sam Fuld | Rays | AL | 144 |
| Placido Polanco | Phillies | NL | 143 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | Red Sox | AL | 143 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | Rockies | NL | 143 |
| James Loney | Dodgers | NL | 143 |
| Alcides Escobar | Royals | AL | 143 |
| Brandon Phillips | Reds | NL | 142 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | Indians | AL | 142 |
| Carlos Lee | Astros | NL | 142 |
Better than I expected, albeit still not great.
It’s odd to see Albert Pujols on here. He started the year poorly at .150/.222/.225 over his first 10 games, then hit .317/.388/.525 over his next 27 games. Since then he’s hit .241/.302/.328. Apparently no one told him it was his contract year. I thought his market was going to be a bit restricted since the two obvious destinations for him if he wanted to maximize his salary both have 1B signed long-term but this can’t be helping.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Yankees.com: Teixeira caps late rally with walk-off single
NEW YORK—Curtis Granderson’s RBI single tied the game in the ninth inning, and Mark Teixeira won it with one of his own as the Yankees defeated the Blue Jays, 5-4, on Tuesday at Yankee Stadium.
Down to their final three outs against Blue Jays closer Frank Francisco, Jorge Posada ripped a one-out pinch-hit double that woke up the big Bronx ballpark.
After a groundout, Granderson connected with his fourth hit of the game, just past a diving stab from first baseman Juan Rivera. Granderson stole second and Teixeira smashed the game-winner off Rivera’s glove and into right field.
Yay win!
Where would this team be without Curtis Granderson? Drove in the tying run, stole second and then scored the winning run. It was his fourth hit of the game.
Sorry for the lack of posts the last two days, our internet connection has been down since yesterday morning and I’m stealing some of my neighbor’s wireless to post this and need to sneak off before they catch me. Not sure when I’ll have it back so things may be slow for a while.
If you need something to complain about, I vote for the Rafael Soriano contract. Either that or Derek Jeter pretty much single-handedly almost losing tonight’s game with his 7th inning DP and his 9th inning ground out. Robinson Cano’s RBI double in the eighth gets him off the hook for his horrendous fielding, continuing what’s been a disappointing year on both sides of the ball.
Monday, May 23, 2011
Where Are The Yankees’ Missing Hits?
It’s not very likely that scoring eight runs without the benefit of a home run in last night’s seventh inning is going to quell the clowns who think the Yankees are eschewing hits for home runs and that they need to stop hitting the ball over the fence and instead hit more bleeders and bloops. They’ll cite a team batting average that ranks 11th in MLB while ignoring the fact that the Yankees have the second highest team wOBA in baseball(behind St. Louis) and the second-highest BB rate in MLB (tied with the Mets) despite only ranking 15th in strikeout rate. If they were really swinging for the fences on every pitch in a concerted effort to hit more HRs shouldn’t they be striking out more than that? Aren’t HRs a function of hitting the ball hard, and isn’t that what hitters should be doing?
Anyway, the primary culprit in the Yankees’ seeming inability to only score via the home run is their team’s batting average. Their team batting average on balls in play(BABIP) is at .274, which ranks among the worst in MLB (tied for third-worst with the Washington Nationals and worse than the Mariners). BABIP ignores home runs, so if you instead look at on-contact average they move up to 10th in MLB.
If you compare the team’s current cumulative batting line to their projections using the actual distribution of playing time so far, you can see what’s different from expectations.
| Type | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | GDP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR |
| YTD | 1727 | 1518 | 235 | 385 | 62 | 10 | 71 | 229 | 26 | 13 | 173 | 317 | 21 | 48 | .254 | .335 | .448 | .341 | 223 |
| Proj | 1727 | 1511 | 225 | 404 | 77 | 8 | 58 | 216 | 32 | 10 | 182 | 303 | 17 | 35 | .267 | .349 | .444 | .347 | 232 |
| Diff | 0 | 7 | 10 | -19 | -15 | 2 | 13 | 13 | -6 | 3 | -9 | 14 | 4 | 13 | -9 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: linear weights batting runs
As a team, the Yankees have 19 fewer hits than projected, mostly doubles. They’ve hit 13 more home runs than expected, and overall they’re actually about nine runs below their projections. The killer number here that has been driving me nuts this year are the double plays. The Yankees are tied for second in MLB at 48, with the Cardinals the runaway leader with 58. That’s partially a function of getting people on base. If you look at it in terms of percentage of times they’ve hit into a double play in double play situations they’re at 14.4% which only ranks 7th in MLB. That still doesn’t make it any less annoying.
So who are the culprits in the Yankees’ lower than expected batting average. You probably already have a good idea, but here you go.
| Player | Team | Lg | Pos | Type | H | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR |
| Jorge Posada | Yankees | AL | DH | Diff | -9 | -7 | -3 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | AL | RF | Diff | -8 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -6 |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | AL | 1B | Diff | -6 | -5 | -3 | 0 | 2 |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | AL | 2B | Diff | -5 | -4 | -3 | 0 | 2 |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | AL | SS | Diff | -2 | 3 | -4 | 0 | -2 |
| Francisco Cervelli | Yankees | AL | C | Diff | -2 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andruw Jones | Yankees | AL | LF | Diff | -1 | 0.8 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gustavo Molina | Yankees | AL | C | Diff | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eduardo Nunez | Yankees | AL | SS | Diff | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Russell Martin | Yankees | AL | C | Diff | 2 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Chris Dickerson | Yankees | AL | DH | Diff | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Chavez | Yankees | AL | 3B | Diff | 2 | 1.7 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | AL | LF | Diff | 2 | 0.3 | -1 | 1 | 1 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | AL | CF | Diff | 2 | -4 | -3 | 1 | 8 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | AL | 3B | Diff | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Although readers of this blog for the most part understand that batting average isn’t very informative, when five of the nine regulars are lower than expected in hits per AB it contributes to our perception that the team is underperforming.
For all the stories regarding Jorge Posada, Nick Swisher is the Yankee who so far has been the worst performer relative to his projection once you account for playing time.
| Player | BR |
| Curtis Granderson | 6.7 |
| Russell Martin | 6.2 |
| Eric Chavez | 1.9 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 1.4 |
| Chris Dickerson | 1.4 |
| Gustavo Molina | -0.2 |
| Francisco Cervelli | -0.4 |
| Alex Rodriguez | -0.8 |
| Mark Teixeira | -0.8 |
| Robinson Cano | -1.2 |
| Brett Gardner | -1.6 |
| Andruw Jones | -2.5 |
| Jorge Posada | -5.0 |
| Derek Jeter | -6.0 |
| Nick Swisher | -8.7 |
Even Jeter’s been worse than Posada by this measure, primarily since he’s getting the most PAs on the team. I think it’s time to put Gardner at the top against righties, although if all that does is move Jeter to second it’s pointless.
I think Swisher is the biggest issue the Yankees have right now. If Posada doesn’t start showing signs of life, they have internal options for DH. As disappointing as Jeter’s been this year, he’s the Yankees’ best option at shortstop right now. With Swisher, we know he’s got the ability to be a key contributor to the team, but we also have data in the not so distant past that he may just have a horrible season. I like Chris Dickerson as a fourth OF, but I don’t think I’d want to see him out there every day. If Andruw Jones was playing a bit better a Jones/Dickerson platoon might work, but I doubt they sit Swisher long-term. So let’s hope he gets better.
Friday, May 20, 2011
TGS NY: Jorge, DJ join Yankees’ bat attack
They left New York on Sunday, swept by the Red Sox and in the midst of the Jorge Posada sitdown turmoil. They return with Posada, sporting a first baseman’s glove, an RBI double, a good swing right-handed and a tiny glimmer that maybe there are a few more good days in pinstripes for him.
On top of that, Posada’s good buddy Derek Jeter took a break from hitting ground balls to knock a double and a triple Thursday.
I’ve wondered why the Yankees didn’t try Posada at 1B sooner. Given the way a lot of players seem to struggle with the DH, it may have helped Posada with the transition from being actively involved on every single pitch his team threw to sitting in the dugout waiting for his next chance to make an out.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Yankees.com: Yanks’ jolt better late than never (aka Joe Girardi is a Dummy)
Mariano Rivera blew his third save, but Robinson Cano drove in two of the Yanks’ three 15th-inning runs. .
Bartolo Colon pitched about as well as a pitcher can pitch tonight, throwing mainly two and four seam fastballs on the edges of the strike zone over eight scoreless innings and needing just 87 pitches. This of course makes the decision to pull Colon after the eighth something that was questionable.
I was fine with it. Almost all the evidence we have about pitchers shows that they are less effective on each pass through the batting order. It’s part of the reason why bad starters can be good relievers. With the top of the Orioles lineup coming up in what would be their fourth look at Colon, pulling him was a defensible move. That’s particularly true when you’re going to Mariano Rivera to try and preserve the lead.
That it didn’t work out tonight doesn’t change that.
That doesn’t absolve Joe Girardi of some of the blame for this game almost being a loss though.
I don’t think I can overstate how stupid it was to bunt with Brett Gardner in the top of the 12th inning. Consider this:
A right-handed pitcher was on the mound.
Due up after Gardner (who bats left-handed) were Eduardo Nunez, Russell Martin and possibly Derek Jeter, all of whom hit right-handed.
Gardner was the best hitter due up out of that group given the platoon advantage. Instead, Girardi gave away an out which was far more important to his team’s chances of scoring a run than advancing a runner by one base so one of the three weaker hitters due up next could try to drive him in.
It’s even more egregious since it was the second time in the game that Girardi pissed away an out, although bunting with Eduardo Nunez was a bit more defensible.
Fortunately for us, the Orioles weren’t able to take advantage of Girardi’s generosity and Hector Noesi pitched four scoreless innings in his MLB debut despite allowing eight baserunners and the Yankees miraculously scored three runs in the top of the fifteenth inning and held on to win. Maybe one they didn’t deserve, but a win regardless.
Monday, May 16, 2011
TGS NY: Sources: Yankees irked by Derek Jeter
Derek Jeter’s negotiations with the New York Yankees last winter seemed to have been Round 1 in the tense transitional relationship between the club’s accomplished Old Guard and management. Jorge Posada’s episode over the weekend was Round 2.
And now there may be a Round 3 in the hours and days ahead after Jeter, in his statements to reporters, essentially exonerated Posada from any wrongdoing for taking himself out of Saturday’s lineup against Boston. According to sources, Yankees management was surprised and frustrated by what Jeter said—particularly in his standing as captain—even after Posada acknowledged that he was wrong in his actions Saturday and apologized to manager Joe Girardi.
This is going to be one hell of a summer, isn’t it?
Thursday, May 12, 2011
NJ.com: Fans question bunting in Yankees’ 4-3 loss to Royals
In the eighth inning and the game tied 2-2, Derek Jeter popped up a bunt with Brett Gardner on first base. And then in the 10th, down 3-2, Gardner bunted Russell Martin over to second despite a three-ball count with no outs. Jeter’s bunt didn’t work out, but Gardner’s did as the Yankees tied the game later in the inning.
I realize part of the calculus in bunting with Gardner is that he has a better than average chance to reach safely, but I still can’t justify Girardi’s constant willingness to give away outs. It’s become more irritating than his love of the intentional walk and I see no evidence it will change.
Bunting with Gardner ahead 3-0 was so exceedingly stupid that it defies words. You had three pitches to see if the pitcher would advance the runner for you without costing yourself an out, and instead you willingly gave them a free out. Yeah, they tied the game, but who’s to say they don’t score more runs if Gardner reached safely.
Bunting with Jeter was not as dumb, but still dumb. Moving a runner into scoring position in front of hitters who hit a lot of singles and don’t walk much or hit for power makes sense. Moving a runner into scoring position in front of hitters who walk a lot and hit for power has less impact. What category do Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixiera and Alex Rodriguez fall into?
I think I’m ready for a new manager.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Yankees.com: A-Rod, timely relief buoy Yankees
NEW YORK—Alex Rodriguez slashed a two-run single that put the Yankees ahead and Dave Robertson escaped from a key seventh-inning jam, securing a 3-1 victory over the Royals on Tuesday.
Rodriguez has been fiddling with a mechanical adjustment to his leg kick, hoping to escape a power drought that has followed the slugger for weeks, and he now has even more reason to be encouraged by the results.
The Yankees took the lead in the fifth inning, as Kansas City starter Kyle Davies walked Brett Gardner and allowed a one-out Derek Jeter single before hitting Mark Teixeira in the left thigh with a two-out pitch.
Jeter went 2 for 4 and both hits were hit solidly up the middle. He’s now hitting .283/.336/.354 in a league where the average SS has hit .254/.310/.352 (entering tonight). I don’t know if he’s back or not, but I am less pessimistic than I was a week ago.
Freddy Garcia had another solid outing after being hit a bit harder in his last two starts, although he allowed the first two runners to reach in the seventh, which brought Robertson into the game. Robertson made things interesting by loading the bases with one out, but he came back to fan the last two hitters of the inning. Joba Chamberlain pitched what might have been his best inning of 2011, and Mo closed it out with a nice stab on a shot up the middle that he was able to turn into a double play.
Hopefully they can keep it going tomorrow.
Monday, May 9, 2011
Salvaging The Road Trip From Hell
On May 5, the Yankees were 16-9 and in sole possession of first place in the AL East. They led Tampa Bay and Baltimore by four in the loss column and Toronto and Boston by six.
The lost three of four to Detroit in a series where they probably should have split but salvaged a bit by taking two of three in Texas. By log5 they should have gone 3.5-3.5, so by going 3-4 they ended up only losing about one-half game on expectations. Only Tampa Bay picked up any ground on them in the loss column. So all in all, despite what seemed to be a disaster in the making, the Yankees aren’t really much worse off than they were before the road trip.
IMO, the real story of the road trip is the possibility that Derek Jeter may still be a useful player on offense.
| Dates | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | GDP | avg | obp | slg | woba | isoD | isoP |
| 3/31 - 4/10 | 105 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 3 | .242 | .314 | .263 | .272 | .072 | .021 |
| 4/11 - 5/2 | 29 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | .393 | .414 | .643 | .449 | .021 | .250 |
| Dates | br | br/650 | babip | FB | GB | LD | IFH | fb% | gb% | ld% | bb/pa | k/pa |
| 3/31 - 4/10 | 7 | 45 | .271 | 15 | 62 | 8 | 7 | 17.6% | 72.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.5% |
| 4/11 - 5/2 | 6 | 132 | .429 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 17.4% | 52.2% | 30.4% | 3.4% | 17.2% |
FB: fly balls
GB: ground balls
LD: line drives
IFH: infield hits
woba: weighted on-base average
isoD: Isolated plate discipline (obp - avg)
isoP: Isolated power (slg - avg)
br: linear weights batting runs
br/650: br pro-rated to 650 PA
babip: batting average on balls in play
Jeter appeared to be hitting the ball harder over this road trip, and that’s borne out in his LD% and isoP. Of course, you never want to make too much of 29 PA, but I am encouraged. Not because of the results of 29 good PA, but because Jeter demonstrated something I really didn’t think he was physically capable of doing any more.
Time will tell if yesterday’s game was a blip like June 12, 2010 or the announcement of his return to offensive prominence.
It was a good thing Jeter hit over the road trip, because some of his teammates didn’t.
| Player | PA | wOBA |
| Eric Chavez | 2 | .780 |
| Curtis Granderson | 31 | .467 |
| Derek Jeter | 29 | .450 |
| Mark Teixeira | 30 | .400 |
| Brett Gardner | 25 | .367 |
| Nick Swisher | 24 | .358 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 8 | .356 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 9 | .338 |
| Jorge Posada | 28 | .276 |
| Russell Martin | 21 | .273 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 28 | .245 |
| Robinson Cano | 25 | .199 |
| Andruw Jones | 10 | .162 |
I’m fairly certain Martin, Cano and Rodriguez will hit going forward, and if Andruw Jones doesn’t he won’t play. Jorge Posada may just be in an unlucky stretch and should be hitting better than he has so far, but if he isn’t, at some point the Yankees really need to start getting more production out of DH.
Sunday, May 8, 2011
Yankees.com: Hell Freezes Over
ARLINGTON—Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson hit back-to-back homers, and Francisco Cervelli crushed his first career grand slam, powering the Yankees to a 12-5 victory over the Rangers on Sunday at Rangers Ballpark.
Jeter blasted his first two homers of the season in the win, slugging a fifth-inning solo shot to chase starter David Bush and then connecting for a tiebreaking shot in the seventh to greet Arthur Rhodes.
If you had told me this morning that the over/under on Derek Jeter home runs for 2011 was one, I’d have taken the under.
Perhaps he’s not quite done just yet.
Friday, May 6, 2011
Chris O’Leary: Swing Analysis - Derek Jeter
The problem is that Derek Jeter seems to have developed a hitch in his swing. Watch how, just before his front foot plants, his hands go up and away from his back shoulder.
He didn’t used to do that.
In general, Derek Jeter’s swing doesn’t seem to be getting better. For instance, his swing is still back arm dominant. Notice how, after his front heel plants, his back elbow still slides forward of his hands and pulls his hands down and forward.
...
I’ve read a number of recent pieces that talk about how Derek Jeter’s ground ball rate is approaching historic proportions. This is explainable by the swing flaw I identify above. What happens when the back elbow leaks forward is that it can force the hitter to uppercut the ball too much, creating topspin and driving the ball into the ground. While some uppercut is necessary for matching the plane of the swing to the plane of the pitch, you can definitely take this too far and I wonder if this helps to explain Derek Jeter’s high ground ball rate.
While I tend to take pieces like this with a grain of salt, they can be interesting to read even if it’s just to give us a different perspective.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Yankees.com: Yankees’ bats dormant in defeat
DETROIT—The Yankees were annoyed after missing several run-scoring opportunities in Tuesday’s loss to the Tigers. But there would be no such feelings after Wednesday’s game.
Max Scherzer didn’t give them many to begin with.
The Tigers right-hander hurled eight dominant innings, limiting the Yankees to just four hits while handing them a 4-0 loss at Comerica Park.
With that, New York dropped back-to-back games for just the second time this season and moved to 5-5 on the road.
Since May 15:
Derek Jeter: .262/.310/.277
Alex Rodriguez: .142/.232/245
Is there a better way to get out of a bad stretch of games than playing the Yankees? The Red Sox, the White Sox and the Tigers would probably say no.
NY Post: Sherman: Would the Yankees be interested in Reyes come July?
I doubt it. They re-signed Derek Jeter to a three-year contract last offseason and I cannot imagine – after giving him that contract essentially out of a sign of respect – that they are going to move him aside come July, even if he is still struggling as badly as he is now. Heck, the Yankees have not even shown the fortitude yet to move Jeter down in the lineup, so can you imagine them moving him onto the bench?
But the more interesting question becomes if the Yankees would be interested in Reyes as a free agent?
That would mean that Jeter had to stay a poor player all year to even put the Yankees in position to consider such a signing. But it does add some intrigue to the rest of this season as the Yankees wait and wonder if the current Jeter is now Jeter.
If the Yankees were to trade for Reyes today, he would project to be worth about one win more than Jeter would be over the remainder of the season at the plate(using rest of season ZiPS from Fangraphs).
Jeter: .276/.344/.378
Reyes: .290/.344/.443
Those don’t account for park, so in theory Reyes would hit a bit better than that. If they wait until July, then the difference shrinks.
Of course, the question is whether or not Jeter’s revised projections are too optimistic and what the defensive difference would be. The other more important question would be the cost in terms of talent for what is more likely than not a modest upgrade for 2011.
I don’t see it happening, and I don’t think I want to see it happening. But I would be on board with him as a possible free agent signing in 2012 if Jeter shows no signs of recovering from his lackluster start.
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
NYDN: Fans, media on verge of mutiny against New York Yankees captain Derek Jeter
Whispers about the Captain losing his way at the plate have turned into screams. From the Valley of the Stupid, and throughout all other media precincts, there is wondering and speculation. How long? How long before Joe Girardi has to move Jeter down in the lineup? Various voices also look ahead to next season - and the next.
What will Jeter’s role be?
The dam of opinions finally burst Friday night in the eighth inning against the Jays. As the Stadium crowd chanted his name, with the bases loaded, Jeter struck out on four pitches from the mighty Octavio Dotel.
As Daily News baseball columnist John Harper wrote: “The truth is, it’s getting painful to watch him at the plate these days…”
One of the justifications for signing Jeter to a contract that’s clearly a significant overpay based on his value on the field was his value off the field in terms of marketing and popularity. The problem with that is that value is going to plummet as it becomes more and more obvious that he’s hurting the team.
I’m on the fence about seeing Jeter hitting better going forward. There’s nothing in his performance that indicates he’s been unlucky, but that doesn’t mean whatever adjustments he may be trying won’t suddenly click.
I’ve thought Jeter’s been hitting the ball a bit better of late, but the data on his batted ball types doesn’t really show much of a difference.

Through May 10, Jeter was hitting .206/.308/.235, and since then he’s hit .273/.324/.288. What’s scary about that is some of the stuff you can see in the tables below:
| Dates | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | SB | CS | HBP | GDP | avg | obp | slg | woba | isoD | isoP |
| 3/31 - 4/10 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .206 | .308 | .235 | .263 | .102 | .029 |
| 4/11 - 5/2 | 71 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .273 | .324 | .288 | .284 | .051 | .015 |
| Dates | br | br/650 | babip | FB | GB | LD | IFH | fb% | gb% | ld% | bb/pa | k/pa |
| 3/31 - 4/10 | 2 | 37 | .241 | 3 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 10.3% | 79.3% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 12.8% |
| 4/11 - 5/2 | 5 | 49 | .305 | 12 | 41 | 6 | 5 | 20.3% | 69.5% | 10.2% | 5.6% | 9.9% |
FB: fly balls
GB: ground balls
LD: line drives
IFH: infield hits
woba: weighted on-base average
isoD: Isolated plate discipline (obp - avg)
isoP: Isolated power (slg - avg)
br: linear weights batting runs
br/650: br pro-rated to 650 PA
babip: batting average on balls in play
He’s walking less and his hits are weaker. If you take out his infield hits from both lines he’s hit .118/.231/.147 through May 10 and .197/.254/.212 since, and .170/.245/.190 overall. Luckily, infield hits do count, but I’m not sure he can continue to hit them at the rate he’s hit them, especially if defenses start to position themselves differently to make a few more plays on those weak grounders.
I don’t see any way Jeter isn’t the full-time shortstop for the rest of the season, and that’s probably the correct way to proceed. I don’t think Eduardo Nunez would be any more productive, although he probably deserves a bit more playing time than he’s gotten so far, given the possibility that he may be better than his projections/career performance to date indicate. It won’t happen, but I’d like to see Nunez getting at least one start a week.
Since the Yankees are committed to Jeter for the next 3+ seasons they probably ought to give him enough time to show whether or not he’s still got something left. As far as what Jeter projects to do over the rest of the year, ZiPS says .276/.343/.378 which would give him a season ending line of something in the area of .272/.338/.360. His CAIRO 35% forecast was .274/.335/.366, which would make him around 6 runs better than a replacement level SS. So if he ends up there and his defense over the rest of the year is six runs below average he’s essentially replacement level.
Even if Jeter rebounds to finish better than that, I don’t think the Yankees should count on Jeter being a starting shortstop after this season. Even if 2011 isn’t the event horizon of Jeter’s career, it’s starting to look an awful lot like at least the ergosphere.
Monday, May 2, 2011
Yankees.com: Yanks outlast Tigers after Colon’s fine start
DETROIT—Bartolo Colon delivered yet another solid start, Nick Swisher broke a tie with an RBI single in the ninth inning and Mariano Rivera closed the door, giving the Yankees a 5-3 win over the Tigers at Comerica Park on Monday night.
Colon had given up just three runs in his previous two starts combined—a span of 14 2/3 innings—and limited the Tigers to three runs over seven innings in start No. 3.
The Yankees wore out Justin Verlander, who needed 127 pitches to get through six innings, but going 1 for 11 with RISP prior to the ninth inning meant they needed Swisher’s late heroics to pull this one out. Colon looked good again, with two solo opposite field HRs by Alex Avila the only real ding on his performance. He struck out seven and walked none, continuing his very encouraging strike throwing ways. Joba looked very good in pitching the eighth, and Mo pitched a perfect ninth, hopefully burying the 2011 edition of WWWMW™.
Brett Gardner continued his better play of late, getting on base three times in four PA, and Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter also added two hits apiece. Hopefully that’s a sign of things to come.
In other news, Phil Hughes’s circulatory tests came back negative. This is good news and I’m happy for Hughes, although it means that the cause for his problems so far this year are still a question mark.
In Defense of Derek Jeter’s Defense?
As a team, the Yankees have had a pretty good start to the year, albeit with a few clunkers along the way. However, the same can’t be said for Derek Jeter, at least offensively. Following the worst full year of his career, Jeter’s hit .242/.308/.263 over his first 107 PA of 2011. Even that line seems like it understates how poorly he’s been hitting. From 2002-2010, Jeter had 1727 hits. Of those hits, 17.9% were either infield hits or bunt hits. In 2010 he had the same percentage of IFH/BH.
In 2011, 39.1% of his hits are either IFH or BH. He’s hitting the ball with no authority, and those numbers really hammer that home. His BABIP this year is low (.264 compared to .355 career), but given the fact that so many of his PA result in weakly hit balls to the infield that’s not suprising and it’s not necessarily indicative of bad luck. It doesn’t mean he won’t perform better going forward, but it’s going to have to happen in at least large part to tangible improvement and not just better luck.
Jeter’s offensive performance is especially alarming because for most of his career he’s cost the team runs defensively. He’s hit well enough to compensate for that most of the time, but at this point it’s not looking like he can continue to do that.
I haven’t been looking at defensive metrics as much as I used to as I’ve learned more about their limitations, but that doesn’t mean they are useless. It just means we need to look at them with the understanding that they’re limited. This is particularly true when we’re trying to get something useful out of a 25 games sample of them.
Before I look at the stats I’ll just say that visually I have gotten the sense that Jeter has made more plays this year on balls to his left than I’ve expected while watching the games. It almost feels like to me that he’s playing more towards the middle, or maybe a bit deeper in general because there have been quite a few plays where the camera switches from the batter hitting the ball up the middle to Jeter in the picture moving towards the ball and fielding it.
First, here’s what zone rating says about Jeter.
| Player | Tm | Lg | Pos | G | INN | Ch | PM | ZR | AvgPM | Avg ZR | Diff | RS |
| Jeter, Derek | NYY | AL | SS | 24 | 214.7 | 80 | 69 | .863 | 67 | .838 | 2 | 2 |
INN: Defensive innings at position
Ch: Playable chances
PM: Plays made
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Avg ZR: ZR by average defender at the same position and in the same league
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs saved compared to average
Zone rating is basically just the number of plays a fielder makes divided by the number of fieldable chances he sees. Chances are defined as plays that are converted into outs at least 50% of the time. So according to these numbers, Jeter’s converted 69 of 80 fieldable chances into outs, which is a zone rating of .863, or 86.3%. The AL average SS has converted around 83.8% of their fieldable chances into outs. So if you multiply Jeter’s chances by that you see the average SS would have theoretically made two fewer plays, which means Jeter’s been about two plays better than average. The run value of that is about 0.8 runs per play.
While that is encouraging, it needs to be tempered by a few things. There is research that shows that there may be some range bias in defensive metrics, so there may be plays that Jeter isn’t making that he’s not getting penalized for because the stringers aren’t marking them as fieldable, where as they may be marked as fieldable for a player who got closer to them. There’s also the possibility that Jeter’s gotten a higher than normal distribution of easily fieldable chances which are easier to convert into outs and that if he’d seen a more difficult distribution he’d grade worse. But most of all, the biggest issue is that 24 games thing. 24 games of defensive metrics are a very small sample on which to base much.
If there is range bias, I was thinking it may show up in terms of fieldable chances assigned to Jeter relative to other AL shortstops.
| Team | Pos | % |
| Oak | SS | 22.1% |
| Bal | SS | 20.9% |
| CWS | SS | 20.3% |
| Sea | SS | 19.1% |
| Tex | SS | 18.6% |
| NYY | SS | 18.5% |
| Min | SS | 18.2% |
| Det | SS | 18.2% |
| Cle | SS | 18.1% |
| TB | SS | 17.8% |
| Bos | SS | 17.1% |
| KC | SS | 16.9% |
| LAA | SS | 16.8% |
| Tor | SS | 16.0% |
These are the percentage of fieldable chances assigned to SS by team so far this year. This isn’t necessarily a great way to try and determine if there’s a range bias since it’s as much a function of the types of pitchers a team has and who they’ve played so far as anything else but I suppose it works as circumstantial evidence that if there’s a range bias that makes Jeter look better than he should the effect to this point isn’t big. [that’s one hell of a run-on sentence, isn’t it?]
That’s just one defensive metric. Here’s what the FanGraphs defensive metrics say
John DeWan’s DRS: 0
UZR: 0.5
So ZR says he’s been +2, DRS says he’s been average, and UZR says he’s been a hair about average. I think I am comfortable in saying Jeter’s defense hasn’t been an issue so far. What I won’t say is that I’d expect it to last. Jeter projected around -10 heading into the season so maybe now we should project him to end the year in the -8 area. So he really needs to start hitting better if he’s going to end up above replacement level.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
NBC New York: The Rafael Soriano Experiment Isn’t Going Well
Soriano moaned after the game about a couple of calls from the home plate umpire and then went on to complain about how difficult it is to pitch in the eighth inning instead of the ninth inning.
While it is nice that he at least deigned to meet with reporters this time around, those explanations aren’t going to win him any respect from a fan base that already thinks his name is pronounced with a booing sound.
I’d think when you’re making $12 million a year you should be able to deal with the difficulty of pitching the eighth instead of the ninth, but apparently it’s not that easy to do so.
I really hated the Soriano signing at the time because of the cost in money and the loss of a first round draft pick, but I figured he’d just be getting overpaid to be part of a strong bullpen. He’s almost certainly going to be better than this going forward. The thing is, it’s pretty tough for a reliever to be worth more than a couple of wins over the course of a season, and Soriano has already cost the team two wins. So at this point, it looks like the best case scenario is Soriano being an average reliever in 2011. Whoop de damn doo.
Has any team gotten less for $40 million a year than the Yankees are getting out of Soriano, Pedro Feliciano and Derek Jeter? $40 million probably buys you Albert Pujols and a mansion.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Yankees.com: Rafael Soriano Stinks
Homers by Robinson Cano and Brett Gardner supported Ivan Nova, who worked 6 1/3 innings and handed a lead to his bullpen, but Rafael Soriano surrendered two late runs.
Soriano is now directly responsible for two of the team’s eight losses so far this year. Good thing he’s signed for the bargain price of $12M per year.
The Yankees had a chance to win it in the ninth despite Soriano, but after a leadoff infield single by Derek Jeter, Joe Girardi thought it would be smart to give away one of the last three outs the team had by bunting with his team leader in HRs. I don’t like bunting in general, but it’s especially foolish when you’re doing it in front of power hitters who walk a fair amount, because the difference in run expectancy for a runner on first vs. a runner on second in front of those types of hitters isn’t really worth the value of the out.
So after Girardi stupidly had Curtis Granderson bunt Jeter to second, Mark Teixeira walked, and Alex Rodriguez lined a pitch to the wall in RF where Brent Lillibridge made a nice catch to preserve the lead. Robinson Cano followed up with a line drive towards the RF corner and Lillibridge made a game-ending diving catch. Either one of those plays would have probably won the game for the Yankees if they weren’t made, but they were.
It’s pretty frustrating seeing the Yankees wasting good starting pitching. And I’m really starting to find Girardi’s decision-making annoying.
Sunday, April 24, 2011
NY Post: How Jeter put A-Rod in the Yankees’ ‘snubhouse’
And when fans and rival players criticized A-Rod, Jeter deferred instead of defending his teammate.
General Manager Brian Cashman noticed this and asked Jeter to “fake it” with A-Rod.
“You’ve got to lead them all, the ones you like and the ones you don’t,” he told him. He asked him to appeal to Yankee fans on A-Rod’s behalf.
“I can’t tell the fans what to do,” Jeter countered.
A-Rod’s obsession with Jeter continued, the book says. He constantly asked players and team officials about Jeter—down to which charity he was currently supporting.
It all came to a head during a Yankee loss in August 2006 to Baltimore.
An easy pop-up hung in the air between A-Rod and Jeter. Both players closed in and Jeter bumped into A-Rod, knocking the ball out of his glove. Jeter shot A-Rod a withering look.
The gesture did not go unnoticed. Cashman pulled Jeter aside and ordered him to knock it off.
“Listen, this has to stop,” Cashman said. “Everybody in the press box, every team official, everyone watching, they saw you look at the ball on the ground and look at him with disgust like you were saying, ‘That’s your mess, you clean it up.’ “
A-Rod also felt betrayed by manager Joe Torre, who players said added fuel to the fiery feud.
“He would never call Jeter on anything, but he’d have no problem doing it to Alex,” one player told the author.
You can’t put a price on leadership and intangibles like that, can you?
To be honest, if I was Jeter, I’d probably have resented Rodriguez for his comments too. Actually, if I was Jeter I’d be out banging supermodels instead of blogging. But after that, I’d have resented Rodriguez. I have no idea if any of this ended up hurting the team on the field, but after 2009 I’m pretty sure it’s no longer an issue.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
2011 Yankees projected vs actual through April 19
As a card-carrying member of the baseball stat nerd cult, I understand that we shouldn’t read too much into the results of early-season performance. We should generally trust that a player’s performance will more often than not regress towards their expected performance as the season moves on.
That doesn’t mean the data we have so far this season is useless in terms of telling us what’s happened. It just means we shouldn’t expect it to tell us all that much about what will happen.
Here’s a quick comparison of the differences between the Yankees’ projections and actual performance so far.
| player | team | pa | ytd_woba | proj_woba | ytd-proj |
| Rodriguez, Alex | Yankees | 50 | .531 | .376 | 6.8 |
| Martin, Russell | Yankees | 52 | .398 | .328 | 3.1 |
| Chavez, Eric | Yankees | 20 | .421 | .285 | 2.4 |
| Granderson, Curtis | Yankees | 55 | .377 | .345 | 1.5 |
| Jones, Andruw | Yankees | 12 | .414 | .326 | 0.9 |
| Cano, Robinson | Yankees | 64 | .375 | .360 | 0.8 |
| Teixeira, Mark | Yankees | 66 | .395 | .383 | 0.7 |
| Posada, Jorge | Yankees | 54 | .322 | .344 | -1.0 |
| Swisher, Nick | Yankees | 64 | .309 | .356 | -2.6 |
| Jeter, Derek | Yankees | 66 | .262 | .332 | -4.0 |
| Gardner, Brett | Yankees | 51 | .182 | .325 | -6.3 |
| Total | 554 | .352 | .348 | 2 |
ytd_woba year to date weighted on-base average
proj_woba average projected wOBA
ytd-proj run value of difference between projected and year to date woba
Brett Gardner’s the biggest disappointment so far offensively. Whether’s it’s just a rough start or indicative of something that we should worry about is something we just don’t know yet.
Did you know Gardner’s not the player who’s under-peforming his projection by the most? Here’s that list.
| player | team | pa | ytd_woba | proj_woba | ytd-proj |
| Crawford, Carl | Red Sox | 66 | .166 | .351 | -10.6 |
| Loney, James | Dodgers | 71 | .192 | .329 | -8.5 |
| Pujols, Albert | Cardinals | 73 | .308 | .431 | -7.8 |
| Johnson, Dan | Rays | 54 | .196 | .350 | -7.2 |
| Alvarez, Pedro | Pirates | 65 | .218 | .340 | -6.9 |
| Wells, Vernon | Angels | 74 | .220 | .325 | -6.7 |
| Morneau, Justin | Twins | 56 | .246 | .381 | -6.6 |
| Choo, Shin-Soo | Indians | 74 | .271 | .372 | -6.5 |
| Jackson, Austin | Tigers | 72 | .213 | .315 | -6.4 |
| Gardner, Brett | Yankees | 51 | .182 | .325 | -6.3 |
Apparently Austin Jackson did not have the BABIP skill to maintain his 2010 performance, at least so far.
The net on the offense is actually fine. As a unit they’ve collectively slightly overperformed, but not to a large extent.
The pitching is the real problem.
| Last, First | mlbam_id | ip | ytd_ra | ytd_fip | p_ra | p_fip | diff_ra | diff_fip |
| Garcia, Freddy | 150119 | 6.0 | 0.00 | 3.37 | 4.96 | 4.75 | 3.3 | 0.9 |
| Sabathia, CC | 282332 | 25.0 | 2.88 | 3.08 | 3.66 | 3.62 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Burnett, A.J. | 150359 | 22.7 | 4.76 | 4.88 | 4.98 | 4.55 | 0.5 | -0.8 |
| Nova, Ivan | 467100 | 14.7 | 7.36 | 4.22 | 5.43 | 4.95 | -3.2 | 1.2 |
| Hughes, Phil | 461833 | 10.3 | 13.94 | 8.81 | 4.19 | 4.12 | -11.2 | -5.4 |
| Total | 78.7 | 5.49 | 4.59 | -8.3 | -2.6 | |||
| Last, First | mlbam_id | ip | ytd_ra | ytd_fip | p_ra | p_fip | diff_ra | diff_fip |
| Robertson, David | 502085 | 6.0 | 0.00 | 1.87 | 3.95 | 3.70 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| Pendleton, Lance | 459983 | 3.0 | 0.00 | 1.87 | 5.25 | 4.94 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Rivera, Mariano | 121250 | 9.3 | 1.93 | 2.02 | 3.02 | 3.32 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Colon, Bartolo | 112526 | 11.3 | 4.76 | 2.85 | 5.56 | 4.96 | 1.0 | 2.7 |
| Ayala, Luis | 425646 | 5.0 | 3.60 | 6.20 | 5.39 | 4.60 | 1.0 | -0.9 |
| Chamberlain, Joba | 501955 | 10.0 | 4.50 | 2.40 | 4.41 | 3.88 | -0.1 | 1.6 |
| Garcia, Freddy | 150119 | 1.0 | 9.00 | 4.20 | 4.96 | 4.75 | -0.4 | 0.1 |
| Nova, Ivan | 467100 | 0.7 | 13.50 | 3.20 | 5.43 | 4.95 | -0.6 | 0.1 |
| Logan, Boone | 457429 | 3.0 | 9.00 | 6.53 | 4.68 | 4.41 | -1.4 | -0.7 |
| Soriano, Rafael | 400089 | 7.7 | 7.04 | 3.59 | 3.37 | 3.51 | -3.1 | -0.1 |
| Total | 22.3 | 10.48 | 7.90 | -5.7 | 1.1 | |||
| Team Total | 101.0 | 6.59 | 5.32 | -14.0 | -1.6 |
ytd_ra: year to date runs allowed per nine innings
ytd_fip: year to date fielding-independent pitching
p_ra: average projected ra
p_fip: average projected fip
diff_ra: difference in runs between projected and actual ra
diff_fip: difference in runs between projected and actual fip
Add about 7 inches and 65 pounds to Brett Gardner and you’ve got Phil Hughes. The thing that really scares me here is seeing that A.J. Burnett’s FIP is actually worse than his projected FIP. He’s looked better than that to me, although I guess last night’s game is evidence that he’s still a work in progress.
The pen has been a bit worse than expected, primarly thanks to Boone Logan and Rafael Soriano. I’d expect Soriano to be fine going forward, but I’m not so sure on Logan.
I figured Hughes had to be the pitcher who’s been underperforming by the most this year, but it turns out that’s not quite true.
| Last, First | mlbam_id | ip | ytd_ra | ytd_fip | p_ra | p_fip | diff_ra | diff_fip |
| Pelfrey, Mike | 460059 | 16.7 | 10.80 | 5.66 | 4.52 | 4.15 | -11.6 | -2.8 |
| Hughes, Phil | 461833 | 10.3 | 13.94 | 8.81 | 4.19 | 4.12 | -11.2 | -5.4 |
| Bedard, Erik | 407853 | 13.7 | 10.54 | 8.03 | 3.87 | 3.91 | -10.1 | -6.3 |
| Figueroa, Nelson | 150153 | 16.0 | 10.13 | 2.89 | 4.54 | 4.39 | -9.9 | 2.7 |
| Lackey, John | 407793 | 14.7 | 9.82 | 6.00 | 4.61 | 4.08 | -8.5 | -3.1 |
| Westbrook, Jake | 150414 | 15.3 | 9.39 | 6.85 | 4.47 | 4.36 | -8.4 | -4.3 |
| Hernandez, Felix | 433587 | 27.0 | 6.00 | 3.24 | 3.24 | 3.29 | -8.3 | 0.2 |
| Penny, Brad | 207267 | 21.3 | 8.44 | 5.78 | 4.97 | 4.46 | -8.2 | -3.1 |
Over at Baseball Think Factory there’ve been a few threads that were essentially arguments between Yankees fans and Mets fans about who you’d rather have, Hughes or Mike Pelfrey. Apparently, the correct answer is neither.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Derek Jeter: Hit Type Data
| % | AVG | BABIP | SLG | HR% | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line Drive | 10.0% | .250 | .200 | .250 | 0.0% | .180 |
| Fly Ball | 10.0% | .200 | .200 | .200 | 0.0% | .180 |
| Ground Ball | 76.0% | .289 | .289 | .316 | 0.0% | .269 |
| Pop Up | 2.0% | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0.0% | .000 |
| Total In Play | 100.0% | .265 | .260 | .286 | 0.0% | .241 |
| Total | 100.0% | .241 | .260 | .259 | 0.0% | .268 |
Although it's only been 61 plate appearances into 2011, Derek Jeter seems to be picking up where he left off last season. His ground ball tendencies seem to be intensifying and even when he does get under a ball, he doesn't get much distance on it. In case you happened to notice, bunt data is not included in the chart which is why the percentages don't add up to 100.
Since Jeter's major hitting woes appeared to begin in 2010, here's his combined 2010 and 2011 hit type data, followed by his prior two seasons.
| % | AVG | BABIP | SLG | HR% | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line Drive | 15.9% | .660 | .640 | .920 | 2.0% | .669 |
| Fly Ball | 16.2% | .294 | .229 | .686 | 7.8% | .392 |
| Ground Ball | 65.5% | .245 | .245 | .260 | 0.0% | .226 |
| Pop Up | 1.2% | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0.0% | .000 |
| Total In Play | 100.0% | .318 | .305 | .431 | 1.6% | .322 |
| Total | 100.0% | .267 | .305 | .362 | 1.3% | .314 |
| % | AVG | BABIP | SLG | HR% | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line Drive | 19.8% | .756 | .747 | .977 | 2.3% | .753 |
| Fly Ball | 20.3% | .308 | .209 | .790 | 12.1% | .437 |
| Ground Ball | 57.0% | .267 | .267 | .273 | 0.0% | .242 |
| Pop Up | 1.5% | .059 | .059 | .059 | 0.0% | .053 |
| Total In Play | 100.0% | .373 | .352 | .518 | 2.9% | .380 |
| Total | 100.0% | .319 | .352 | .444 | 2.5% | .366 |
Watching Jeter hit has been pretty frustrating over the last year. The ground ball tendencies wouldn't be so annoying if he was making better contact overall. The drop in average on his line drives has been a big problem for Jeter. Since he's not really a home run hitter, he relies more on liners to prop up his average and power numbers. Jeter's .640 BAbip on line drives since the start of the 2010 season puts him in the bottom 8% of all major league hitters. I'd love to say that he's hit a rough patch of luck, but it's just not the case.

I posted Jeter's contact graphics a few months ago but I figure they're worth revisiting. The one area he tends to hit the ball well is also the area he has been making less contact. If Jeter is experiencing an overall drop in bat speed, it would explain why he's making less contact in his power zone, as well as why his ground ball and line drive averages are down. The balls he puts in play would not be hit as hard, making it a lot easier for opposing defenses to field and convert them into outs. I'm not saying this is the case, (I don't have access to hit velocity data) but it would certainly explain a lot.
All heatmaps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Saturday, April 16, 2011
NY Post: Rangers score six double plays in 5-3 win over Yankees
Double plays helped get the Yankees into double trouble last night.
The Yankees banged into a franchise record six double plays, Rangers starter Mitch Harrison seemingly inducing two outs on one pitch every time the hosts had something bubbling.
If you ever wondered what a team comprised solely of Derek Jeter circa 2010-2011 would look like, that’s what it would look like.
In other more cheerful news:
From dead arm to dead rotation
The Red Sox own the atrocious record, but with Phil Hughes placed on the disabled list yesterday with a “dead arm” and another young starter not able to make it out of the fifth inning, the first-place Yankees are in deep trouble.
The rotation now includes Bartolo Colon, rookie Ivan Nova, who lost 5-3 to the Rangers last night at frigid Yankee Stadium, and Freddy Garcia, who goes today against Texas.
I’d be enjoying Boston losing more if the Yankees were taking better advantage of it.
Monday, April 11, 2011
Yankee BABIP vs. xBABIP through April 10, 2011
Using the methodology referenced in this article, here’s a comparison of the Yankees’ YTD BABIP (batting average on balls in play) compared to their expected BABIP.
| player | bip | babip | avg/obp/slg | br | xbabip | xavg/obp/slg | xbr | dbr |
| Eric Chavez | 9 | .444 | .444/.444/.667 | 2.6 | .278 | .278/.278/.500 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Robinson Cano | 29 | .345 | .324/.342/.595 | 9.4 | .307 | .295/.313/.565 | 8.9 | 0.4 |
| Andruw Jones | 3 | .333 | .400/.400/1.200 | 2.3 | .302 | .381/.381/1.181 | 2.2 | 0.0 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 1 | .000 | .000/.000/.000 | 0.0 | .000 | .000/.000/.000 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 21 | .286 | .321/.441/.714 | 9.8 | .286 | .322/.441/.714 | 9.8 | 0.0 |
| Russell Martin | 22 | .273 | .300/.344/.633 | 8.1 | .327 | .340/.381/.673 | 8.5 | -0.5 |
| Nick Swisher | 26 | .269 | .219/.289/.250 | 5.0 | .297 | .260/.324/.291 | 5.5 | -0.5 |
| Curtis Granderson | 15 | .200 | .172/.250/.414 | 5.6 | .326 | .238/.309/.479 | 6.3 | -0.7 |
| Derek Jeter | 29 | .241 | .206/.300/.235 | 5.3 | .299 | .264/.350/.294 | 6.1 | -0.8 |
| Brett Gardner | 23 | .217 | .167/.250/.267 | 4.6 | .339 | .237/.327/.337 | 5.4 | -0.8 |
| Mark Teixeira | 19 | .105 | .182/.325/.545 | 8.9 | .319 | .305/.427/.669 | 10.4 | -1.5 |
| Jorge Posada | 17 | .059 | .138/.194/.448 | 5.3 | .316 | .289/.335/.599 | 7.0 | -1.7 |
| Total | 214 | .243 | .236/.310/.471 | 66.7 | .322 | .284/.354/.519 | 72.2 | -5.4 |
br and xbr are actual and expected linear weights batting runs, not adjusted for position or compared to average/replacement level. dbr is just actual br minus xbr. A positive dbr means that a player’s current BABIP is probably higher than it should be, and vice versa.
The good news is that most of the team should probably be hitting a bit better than they have to this point. The bad news is that even if Derek Jeter’s been a bit unlucky so far, even if that corrects itself he still looks pretty bad.
Interesting fact. Jeter does NOT lead baseball in ground balls so far.
| Player | BIP | LD | GB | FB | IFFB |
| Alcides Escobar | 38 | 4 | 26 | 8 | 1 |
| Jose Tabata | 35 | 5 | 23 | 7 | 0 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 33 | 3 | 23 | 7 | 0 |
| Derek Jeter | 29 | 3 | 23 | 3 | 1 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 32 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 0 |
| Chipper Jones | 37 | 5 | 22 | 10 | 1 |
| Starlin Castro | 37 | 8 | 21 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Young | 34 | 6 | 21 | 7 | 0 |
| Lyle Overbay | 32 | 3 | 21 | 8 | 0 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 32 | 4 | 20 | 8 | 0 |
| Juan Pierre | 40 | 11 | 20 | 9 | 1 |
| Joe Mauer | 25 | 1 | 20 | 4 | 0 |
| A.J. Pierzynski | 35 | 4 | 19 | 12 | 1 |
| Chris Coghlan | 34 | 4 | 19 | 11 | 0 |
| Miguel Tejada | 32 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 1 |
| Kevin Kouzmanoff | 25 | 2 | 18 | 6 | 0 |
| Hunter Pence | 28 | 3 | 17 | 8 | 1 |
| Denard Span | 29 | 6 | 17 | 6 | 2 |
| Buster Posey | 24 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 0 |
| Skip Schumaker | 29 | 5 | 17 | 7 | 2 |
So far the ground ball title is Alcides Escobar’s to lose.
NBC New York: It’s Worry About Derek Jeter Time Again
On the one hand, the concerns are justified. Jeter hasn’t been swinging the bat well at all and the most common outcome of his at-bats are meek groundballs that are easily turned into outs.
He’s put the ball into play 29 times this season and he’s hit the ball on the ground 23 of those times. If not for three infield hits, his .206 average would be even more anemic and you’d probably be seeing even more banners declaring that the king is dead or at least that the king should be hitting lower in the lineup.
Four more years!
Saturday, April 9, 2011
Boston Herald: Theo Epstein’s speech gets ’em going
Epstein only spoke for three or four minutes, but his words hit the mark. The Red Sox went out and beat the Yankees 9-6 to earn their first win, avoid the worst start in team history and start what feels like a new season.
Seriously? I could have swore that Phil Hughes, Mark Teixeira, Boone Logan and Derek Jeter were the ones that got them going.
In other news, Manny Ramirez has chosen to retire rather than be suspended for 100 games for failing a second steroid test. I’m pretty sure that means that anything his teams did while he was in their employ should be stricken from the record. What I find most surprising is that George Mitchell’s steroid investigation didn’t uncover any evidence about the only MLB player who’s failed a test twice (that we know about). Shocking.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Yankee Position Players through April 4, 2011
| Player | Team | Lg | Pos | PA | wOBA | BRAR | RS | WAR |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | AL | 1B | 18 | .583 | 3.5 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 17 | .553 | 3.4 | -0.6 | 0.3 |
| Russell Martin | Yankees | AL | C | 14 | .484 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Jorge Posada | Yankees | AL | DH | 16 | .508 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | AL | CF | 14 | .318 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | AL | 2B | 18 | .366 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | AL | RF | 18 | .339 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Eric Chavez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 1 | .000 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Eduardo Nunez | Yankees | AL | SS | 1 | .000 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.1 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | AL | LF | 16 | .158 | -1.6 | 0.4 | -0.1 |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | AL | SS | 17 | .191 | -1.1 | -1.0 | -0.2 |
| Total | 150 | .389 | 11 | -1 | 1 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: Linear weights batting runs above replacement level, adjusted for position
RS: Defensive runs saved compared to average
WAR: Wins above replacement (BRAR + RS divided by 10).
Just goofing around with my spreadsheets again and figured I’d put this up.
Sunday, April 3, 2011
Random Small Sample Size Stat Of The Day
Derek Jeter has hit 11 balls in play so far in 2011. 9 of them have been ground balls, and 2 have been line drives. At his current pace, if he plays in 150 games, he’d shatter the previous record of 364 ground balls in a season(data only available since 2002) by about 90. Who holds that record?
Derek Jeter in 2010.
Friday, April 1, 2011
2011 AL Shortstop Zone Rating on Opening Day
| Player | Tm | Lg | Pos | G | GS | INN | PO | A | E | DP | CH | PM | ZR | AvgPM | Diff | RS | RS/162 |
| Aybar, Erick | LAA | AL | SS | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 |
| Escobar, Alcides | KC | AL | SS | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 38 |
| Peralta, Jhonny | Det | AL | SS | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 43 |
| Jeter, Derek | NYY | AL | SS | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .500 | 2 | -1 | -1 | -82 |
CH: Fieldable chances
PM: Plays made (out of FC)
ZR: Zone rating, PM / CH
AvgPM: Plays made by an average defender over same # of CH
Diff: Avg PM - PM
RS: Run saved compared to average (run value of play at position times diff)
RS/162: RS pro-rated to 162 games
Standard caveats about sample size, imprecision of defensive metrics, etc.,
Since I’m sure some dummy will take this post as serious, if you’re a dummy please don’t. I’m just setting up my spreadsheets for 2011 and am posting this as a goof.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Lohud: Yankees lineup/leadoff decision, last pitcher
Joe Girardi has made his call on the leadoff situation, and we really can’t say it’s unexpected. Actually, it makes good sense. Wonder what you think. He’s going with a platoon, Brett Gardner against righties and Derek Jeter against lefties. Girardi talked to Jeter today and told him that Gardner will be batting first with Tigers righty ace Justin Verlander going in the opener. Jeter predictably told reporters it didn’t matter to him, considering how much he has batted second over the years.
...
Also, Luis Ayala has beaten out Steve Garrison for the final slot in the bullpen. The Yankees added Ayala to the 40-man roster. The move was necessitated by Pedro Feliciano’s sore triceps.
Seems logical enough.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Looking Ahead To 2011 - Position Player Wrap-Up
With the bench looking settled now, I’ll buzz through the projections for Eric Chavez, Andruw Jones, Eduardo Nunez, Chris Dickerson, Francisco Cervelli and Gustavo Molina and summarize the team’s position players.
Offense
| player | Chavez, Eric | age | 34 | |||||||||||||||||
| projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAA | BRAR | BABIP |
| cairo | 176 | 160 | 19 | 39 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 13 | .244 | .301 | .400 | .306 | 19 | 69 | -2 | 4 | .279 |
| marcel | 265 | 241 | 26 | 57 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 19 | .237 | .291 | .365 | .288 | 25 | 61 | -6 | 3 | .281 |
| oliver | 239 | 219 | 23 | 51 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .233 | .285 | .342 | .278 | 21 | 57 | -7 | 1 | .294 |
| pecota | 450 | 405 | 46 | 90 | 20 | 1 | 10 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 41 | .222 | .293 | .351 | .287 | 41 | 59 | -12 | 4 | .269 |
| zips | 123 | 112 | 11 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .205 | .260 | .313 | .255 | 9 | 46 | -6 | -1 | .250 |
| average* | 251 | 227 | 25 | 52 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .229 | .289 | .355 | .285 | 23 | 59 | -7 | 2 | .277 |
| 2010 | 126 | 114 | 10 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .237 | .278 | .333 | .268 | 10 | 53 | -4 | 0 | .306 |
| player | Jones, Andruw | age | 34 | |||||||||||||||||
| projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAA | BRAR | BABIP |
| cairo | 386 | 333 | 47 | 74 | 16 | 1 | 16 | 51 | 6 | 2 | 44 | .222 | .313 | .420 | .320 | 45 | 76 | 0 | 8 | .248 |
| marcel | 397 | 343 | 46 | 75 | 17 | 1 | 16 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 47 | .219 | .315 | .414 | .319 | 46 | 76 | 0 | 8 | .247 |
| oliver | 394 | 338 | 48 | 74 | 15 | 1 | 18 | 53 | 5 | 2 | 51 | .219 | .325 | .429 | .331 | 48 | 80 | 2 | 10 | .246 |
| pecota | 455 | 390 | 55 | 88 | 17 | 1 | 21 | 55 | 7 | 2 | 56 | .226 | .327 | .436 | .334 | 57 | 82 | 3 | 13 | .251 |
| zips | 337 | 290 | 40 | 64 | 13 | 1 | 16 | 46 | 6 | 2 | 41 | .221 | .320 | .438 | .330 | 42 | 81 | 2 | 9 | .244 |
| average* | 394 | 339 | 47 | 75 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 50 | 6 | 2 | 48 | .221 | .320 | .427 | .327 | 48 | 79 | 1 | 9 | .247 |
| 2010 | 328 | 278 | 41 | 64 | 12 | 1 | 19 | 48 | 9 | 2 | 45 | .230 | .341 | .486 | .357 | 47 | 93 | 8 | 15 | .239 |
| player | Nuñez, Eduardo | age | 26 | |||||||||||||||||
| projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAA | BRAR | BABIP |
| cairo | 528 | 494 | 61 | 127 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 48 | 19 | 7 | 26 | .257 | .295 | .352 | .287 | 49 | 60 | -13 | 5 | .285 |
| marcel | 226 | 203 | 32 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 19 | .276 | .341 | .424 | .336 | 29 | 83 | 2 | 10 | .303 |
| oliver | 526 | 489 | 56 | 132 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 49 | 13 | 5 | 25 | .270 | .302 | .364 | .293 | 50 | 62 | -11 | 7 | .305 |
| pecota | 496 | 465 | 53 | 126 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 49 | 15 | 5 | 20 | .271 | .300 | .370 | .294 | 49 | 64 | -10 | 8 | .302 |
| zips | 608 | 570 | 64 | 153 | 26 | 2 | 8 | 52 | 21 | 8 | 29 | .268 | .304 | .363 | .295 | 59 | 63 | -13 | 9 | .297 |
| average* | 477 | 444 | 53 | 119 | 20 | 2 | 7 | 45 | 15 | 5 | 24 | .267 | .305 | .368 | .296 | 47 | 64 | -9 | 8 | .297 |
| 2010 | 559 | 514 | 67 | 148 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 57 | 28 | 5 | 35 | .288 | .336 | .379 | .319 | 65 | 76 | -1 | 19 | .316 |
| player | Molina, Gustavo | age | 29 | |||||||||||||||||
| projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAA | BRAR | BABIP |
| cairo | 243 | 225 | 23 | 54 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 12 | .240 | .280 | .373 | .284 | 22 | 60 | -6 | 6 | .271 |
| marcel | 204 | 183 | 24 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 17 | .257 | .324 | .399 | .319 | 23 | 74 | -1 | 9 | .294 |
| oliver | 355 | 327 | 31 | 65 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .199 | .237 | .333 | .247 | 25 | 45 | -17 | 1 | .231 |
| pecota | 450 | 417 | 43 | 92 | 17 | 2 | 12 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .221 | .260 | .357 | .268 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 6 | .248 |
| zips | 197 | 185 | 17 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .227 | .259 | .357 | .267 | 16 | 51 | -7 | 2 | .253 |
| average* | 290 | 267 | 28 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 15 | .224 | .266 | .360 | .273 | 24 | 55 | -9 | 5 | .255 |
| 2010 | 126 | 119 | 13 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .235 | .278 | .479 | .320 | 16 | 81 | 1 | 7 | .233 |
| player | Dickerson, Chris | age | 29 | |||||||||||||||||
| projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAA | BRAR | BABIP |
| cairo | 223 | 194 | 26 | 50 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 23 | .259 | .337 | .392 | .323 | 26 | 77 | 0 | 5 | .329 |
| marcel | 283 | 248 | 32 | 64 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 9 | 2 | 29 | .258 | .336 | .391 | .323 | 34 | 77 | 0 | 6 | .326 |
| oliver | 382 | 328 | 47 | 80 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 12 | 5 | 44 | .244 | .330 | .375 | .314 | 42 | 72 | -3 | 5 | .340 |
| pecota | 450 | 386 | 53 | 96 | 18 | 3 | 10 | 45 | 20 | 6 | 54 | .249 | .340 | .389 | .325 | 54 | 78 | 1 | 10 | .326 |
| zips | 326 | 282 | 40 | 67 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 16 | 6 | 36 | .238 | .322 | .383 | .312 | 37 | 74 | -2 | 5 | .321 |
| average* | 333 | 288 | 40 | 71 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 37 | .248 | .333 | .385 | .319 | 39 | 76 | -1 | 6 | .329 |
| 2010 | 161 | 140 | 23 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 15 | .279 | .335 | .421 | .328 | 21 | 87 | 2 | 6 | .375 |
| player | Cervelli, Francisco | age | 25 | |||||||||||||||||
| projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAA | BRAR | BABIP |
| cairo | 292 | 256 | 29 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 24 | .254 | .325 | .344 | .302 | 28 | 63 | -6 | 8 | .286 |
| marcel | 369 | 320 | 38 | 88 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 43 | 3 | 3 | 33 | .275 | .341 | .372 | .318 | 40 | 71 | -3 | 15 | .308 |
| oliver | 355 | 310 | 35 | 77 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 30 | .248 | .318 | .329 | .293 | 33 | 60 | -9 | 8 | .300 |
| pecota | 450 | 397 | 49 | 101 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 3 | 1 | 37 | .254 | .322 | .348 | .301 | 44 | 64 | -9 | 13 | .294 |
| zips | 310 | 269 | 25 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 | 3 | 26 | .257 | .326 | .338 | .299 | 29 | 61 | -7 | 8 | .298 |
| average* | 355 | 310 | 35 | 80 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 30 | .258 | .327 | .347 | .303 | 35 | 64 | -7 | 11 | .298 |
| 2010 | 317 | 266 | 27 | 72 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 33 | .271 | .350 | .335 | .312 | 32 | 66 | -5 | 11 | .305 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average (does not include SB/CS)
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAA: BR above an average player in projected playing time (adjusted for park, but not for position)
BRAR: BR above a replacement level player (adjusted for park and position)
2010: Un-adjusted 2010 performance
None of those projections inspires much confidence, except maybe Dickerson’s. In the context of a backup catcher there’s also nothing wrong with that Cervelli projection either I guess.
I suppose you can hope that better health lets Chavez exceed his projection, and that platooning lets Jones be a bit better on a rate basis, and that Nunez’s tools mean he can beat that projection, but really, the Yankees need their starters to stay reasonably healthy, which I think we already knew.
CAIRO has the Yankees projected as scoring around 821 runs, using this basic depth chart.
| player | pos | pa | outs | br | rs |
| Derek Jeter | ss | 600 | 403 | 75 | -6 |
| Nick Swisher | rf | 600 | 400 | 84 | 2 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1b | 625 | 403 | 99 | 5 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3b | 550 | 357 | 89 | -3 |
| Robinson Cano | 2b | 625 | 422 | 95 | 0 |
| Jorge Posada | dh | 500 | 331 | 70 | 0 |
| Curtis Granderson | cf | 575 | 390 | 78 | 4 |
| Russell Martin | c | 500 | 333 | 60 | 2 |
| Brett Gardner | lf | 550 | 360 | 68 | 11 |
| starters | 5125 | 3399 | 718 | 15 | |
| bench | pos | pa | outs | br | rs |
| Andruw Jones | of | 247 | 175 | 29 | 0 |
| Francisco Cervelli | c | 200 | 141 | 19 | 0 |
| Eric Chavez | 3B | 200 | 144 | 21 | 0 |
| Eduardo Nuñez | if | 200 | 147 | 18 | 0 |
| Jesus Montero | c | 130 | 93 | 16 | 0 |
| bench | 977 | 701 | 103 | 0 | |
| team | 6102 | 4100 | 821 | 15 |
br are linear weights batting runs, and rs are estimated defensive runs saved compared to average. I’ve purposely set the bench to average because I don’t know that projecting defense for part-time players who may play multiple positions makes any sense. We can probably figure that Jesus Montero will be below average and that Eric Chavez should be decent.
The same depth chart with the other projection systems plus CAIRO average out to about 812 runs scored. That’s the second highest total projected runs scored in baseball behind Boston, and it’s the best total if you account for park. So barring major injury, the offense should do its part, which I think we already knew. I’ll include the defense with the pitching wrap-up.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
NY Post: Report: Showalter rips Jeter
Showalter, the former Yankees skipper who took command of the Orioles last season, told the magazine he “screamed” at the Bombers’ captain last season at Yankee Stadium.
“Our guys are thinking, ‘Wow, he’s screaming at Derek Jeter.’ Well, he’s always jumping back from balls just off the plate. I know how many calls that team gets—and yes, he [ticks] me off.”
Showalter also blasted the Red Sox, mocking the notion that Boston’s biggest offseason acquisitions—Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez—were indicative of general manager Theo Epstein’s savvy.
“I’d like to see how smart Theo Epstein is with the Tampa Bay [Rays] payroll,” Showalter said. “You got Carl Crawford ‘cause you paid more than anyone else, and that’s what makes you smarter? That’s why I like whipping their butt.
Buck hates Jeter and the Red Sox? Sounds like he reads this blog.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
How Unlucky Were Some of the Yankees’ Hitters in 2010?
In my Derek Jeter 2011 projection post I mentioned his xBABIP (expected batting average on balls in play)and what it might mean going forward. Moshe Mandel of The Yankee Analysts e-mailed me to tell me about a spreadsheet available at the Hardball Times that calculates xBABIP. What’s nice about this spreadsheet is it does account for many of the factors that explain the variance in skill for players and their BABIP.
BABIP was better explained as a function all batted-ball types and ratios with speed/power/strikeout considerations.
So I figured I’d see what it said about Jeter in 2010, which then led me to figuring I might as well run it for the rest of the Yankee starters since we are hoping for bigger years from Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira and hoping we don’t see severe drop-offs from Brett Gardner and Nick Swisher.
| player | team | pa | babip | br | xbabip | xbr | dbr | -2 Std | -1 Std | 1 Std | 2 Std |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | 739 | .307 | 82 | .342 | 93 | 11 | .317 | .330 | .355 | .367 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | 595 | .274 | 88 | .305 | 95 | 7 | .278 | .291 | .318 | .332 |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | 712 | .268 | 107 | .295 | 114 | 7 | .271 | .283 | .307 | .320 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | 528 | .277 | 69 | .308 | 76 | 6 | .279 | .293 | .322 | .336 |
| Jorge Posada | Yankees | 451 | .287 | 63 | .322 | 69 | 6 | .290 | .306 | .338 | .354 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | 569 | .340 | 71 | .349 | 73 | 2 | .320 | .335 | .363 | .378 |
| Francisco Cervelli | Yankees | 317 | .316 | 33 | .314 | 32 | 0 | .276 | .295 | .333 | .351 |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | 696 | .326 | 117 | .310 | 112 | -5 | .285 | .298 | .323 | .336 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | 635 | .335 | 98 | .305 | 91 | -7 | .279 | .292 | .319 | .332 |
babip: batting average on balls in play.
br: linear weights batting runs (does not include GDP or SB)
xbabip: expected batting average on balls in play
xbr: linear weights batting runs adjusted for xBABIP
dbr: xbr minus br
A postive dBR means a player would have been better if they hit to their xBABIP.
This looks about right to me. If the Yankees had hit to their xBABIP instead of their BABIP in 2010 they’d have scored about 28 more runs. In theory this means we can probably expect slightly worse years out of Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher and better years out of almost everyone else, with the caveat that a single season’s xBABIP should only be part of the player’s projection.
I’m also encouraged to see Posada’s xBABIP at .322, since it means CAIRO’s 2011 projection of .319 isn’t completely crazy.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Looking Ahead To 2011 - Derek Jeter
Coming off one of the best seasons of his career and in the final year of his contract, Derek Jeter had the worst season of his career, dropping from a line of .334/.406/.465 in 2009 to a line of .270/.340/.370. It was obviously not realistic to expect a repeat of 2009 in 2010, as you can see by looking at Jeter’s projections heading into 2010.
Jeter’s average projection called for a line of .304/.372/.426 over 629 PA, which would have been worth around 34 runs above a replacement level SS. Instead he ended up being worth about fourteen runs worse than that. It’s easy to forget that Jeter actually had a very good April, hitting .330/.354/.521. From May 1 through September 13 he hit a miserable .247/.323/.338 before finishing the year on a relative hot streak of .347/.435/.389 (fueled by a BABIP of .439).
Jeter set a major league record by hitting 1200 ground balls in 2010. Actually, that may be a slight exaggeration, but he did hit 65.7% of his balls on the ground, which is 5.7% higher than he had done in any point in his career (data only available from 2002 on). Ground balls aren’t necessarily a horrible thing, since they’re slightly more likely to be hits than fly balls, but in Jeter’s case it just didn’t work out, whether it was due to him hitting weaker grounders or just having an exceedingly bad string of luck.
If you compare his batted ball data for 2009 and 2010, you can see a pretty clear difference.
| Year | GB | FB | LD | IFFB |
| 2009 | 309 | 123 | 110 | 1 |
| 2010 | 364 | 101 | 89 | 2 |
As a rough rule of thumb, here’s the average outcome for each type of batted ball from 2000-2010.
| Type | out% | 1b% | 2b% | 3b% | hr% |
| GB | 73.1% | 21.8% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| FB | 72.5% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 1.2% | 11.5% |
| LD | 26.9% | 51.6% | 17.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% |
| IFFB | 97.0% | 1.7% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Batted ball data isn’t perfect, because it’s based on subjective assignment by people, so keep that in mind. We also need to be aware that different types of hitters will have different results with their batted balls. A Jorge Posada ground ball is not as likely to be a hit as a Brett Gardner ground ball, a Ramiro Pena fly ball is not as likely to be a hit as an Alex Rodriguez fly ball, etc.,
If we look at Jeter’s actual BABIP compared to an expected BABIP for 2009-2010 using the league average rates for each type of batted ball, here’s what it looks like.
| Year | BABIP | xBABIP |
| 2009 | .368 | .324 |
| 2010 | .307 | .302 |
This tells me we should expect Jeter to be closer to 2010 than 2009, but I think most of us already knew that.
The raw numbers tell us something, but they’re still kind of limited. Another thing I wondered about was if Jeter’s actual distribution of where he was hitting the ball was meaningfully different.
Using Baseball Reference’s hit location splits, here’s how 2007-2010 compare.
| Year | Split | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | GDP | SH | SF | IBB | ROE | BAbip | BA | OBP | SLG |
| 2007 | Ball In Play | 532 | 527 | 194 | 39 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | .367 | .368 | .367 | .457 |
| 2008 | Ball In Play | 511 | 500 | 168 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 11 | .333 | .336 | .333 | .398 |
| 2009 | Ball In Play | 531 | 526 | 194 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | .368 | .369 | .368 | .424 |
| 2010 | Ball In Play | 552 | 548 | 170 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | .307 | .310 | .309 | .381 |
| 2007 | Fair Terr | 540 | 535 | 206 | 39 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | .370 | .385 | .384 | .540 |
| 2008 | Fair Terr | 518 | 507 | 179 | 25 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 11 | .336 | .353 | .350 | .479 |
| 2009 | Fair Terr | 546 | 541 | 212 | 27 | 1 | 18 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | .370 | .392 | .391 | .545 |
| 2010 | Fair Terr | 558 | 554 | 179 | 30 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | .309 | .323 | .321 | .442 |
| 2007 | Opp Fld-RHB | 91 | 90 | 40 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .433 | .444 | .440 | .611 |
| 2008 | Opp Fld-RHB | 109 | 107 | 41 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .350 | .383 | .380 | .645 |
| 2009 | Opp Fld-RHB | 119 | 119 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .404 | .454 | .454 | .807 |
| 2010 | Opp Fld-RHB | 123 | 123 | 50 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .397 | .407 | .407 | .569 |
| 2007 | Pulled-RHB | 105 | 104 | 57 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .520 | .548 | .548 | .856 |
| 2008 | Pulled-RHB | 91 | 90 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .364 | .378 | .378 | .478 |
| 2009 | Pulled-RHB | 84 | 83 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .494 | .506 | .506 | .614 |
| 2010 | Pulled-RHB | 84 | 84 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .378 | .393 | .393 | .536 |
| 2007 | To Infield | 266 | 263 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .103 | .103 | .103 | .103 |
| 2008 | To Infield | 273 | 266 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .113 | .113 | .113 | .113 |
| 2009 | To Infield | 282 | 278 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .104 | .104 | .104 | .104 |
| 2010 | To Infield | 334 | 333 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .108 | .108 | .108 | .111 |
| 2007 | To Outfield | 278 | 276 | 179 | 39 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .628 | .649 | .644 | .949 |
| 2008 | To Outfield | 249 | 245 | 149 | 25 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | .580 | .608 | .598 | .869 |
| 2009 | To Outfield | 267 | 266 | 183 | 27 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .663 | .688 | .685 | 1.000 |
| 2010 | To Outfield | 227 | 224 | 143 | 29 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .613 | .638 | .630 | .929 |
| 2007 | Up Mdle-RHB | 348 | 345 | 109 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | .305 | .316 | .315 | .420 |
| 2008 | Up Mdle-RHB | 322 | 314 | 104 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | .319 | .331 | .328 | .417 |
| 2009 | Up Mdle-RHB | 346 | 342 | 116 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .326 | .339 | .338 | .433 |
| 2010 | Up Mdle-RHB | 354 | 350 | 96 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | .259 | .274 | .272 | .371 |
The biggest takeaway from this chart for me is that Jeter has never done well on balls hit to the infield, at least not since 2007. Of course that’s true of anyone, since it’s just infield singles and ground outs. The primary problem in 2010 was that he had so many more of them, which again is something I think anyone who watched him in 2010 intuitively knew already. Basically, if Jeter’s going to be better in 2011, he probably has to stop hitting so many freaking grounders. We’ll see if the changes that Kevin Long and Jeter have been working on with reducing his stride help with that.
That’s still not granular enough for me, so here’s how Jeter’s balls in play have been fielded by each position over the past four seasons.
| Pos | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
| P | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% |
| C | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 1B | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% |
| 2B | 11.9% | 14.6% | 12.3% | 15.2% |
| 3B | 10.3% | 14.4% | 10.4% | 12.1% |
| SS | 18.5% | 16.6% | 19.5% | 20.7% |
| LF | 11.4% | 5.5% | 9.4% | 6.4% |
| CF | 19.6% | 17.6% | 17.0% | 15.0% |
| RF | 18.7% | 22.1% | 20.2% | 18.1% |
| Left | 21.6% | 19.9% | 19.8% | 18.5% |
| Middle | 55.9% | 54.6% | 55.3% | 58.2% |
| Right | 22.5% | 25.4% | 24.9% | 23.3% |
Left is just 3B and LF, middle is C, P, 2B, SS, CF and right is 1B and RF. This table tells me that Jeter was not able to pull the ball as frequently in 2010 as he had in prior seasons, although he wasn’t that far off from what he did in 2007.
Here’s how the projections see Jeter doing in 2011.
Offense
| projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAA | BRAR | BABIP |
| bill_james | 703 | 641 | 101 | 189 | 31 | 2 | 13 | 68 | 17 | 6 | 62 | .295 | .357 | .410 | .342 | 91 | 84 | 7 | 32 | .337 |
| fans | 674 | 618 | 95 | 179 | 27 | 2 | 12 | 72 | 16 | 5 | 56 | .290 | .358 | .398 | .340 | 83 | 80 | 3 | 27 | .327 |
| cairo | 699 | 624 | 99 | 181 | 29 | 2 | 13 | 70 | 15 | 5 | 63 | .290 | .361 | .405 | .342 | 88 | 82 | 5 | 30 | .322 |
| marcel | 641 | 575 | 87 | 163 | 25 | 2 | 12 | 59 | 17 | 5 | 54 | .283 | .348 | .397 | .332 | 77 | 78 | 1 | 24 | .317 |
| oliver | 656 | 587 | 77 | 166 | 24 | 2 | 11 | 65 | 14 | 5 | 56 | .283 | .349 | .387 | .329 | 76 | 76 | -1 | 22 | .319 |
| pecota | 710 | 631 | 85 | 177 | 27 | 2 | 12 | 70 | 19 | 6 | 62 | .281 | .349 | .387 | .329 | 84 | 76 | 0 | 25 | .316 |
| zips | 648 | 582 | 82 | 163 | 24 | 3 | 12 | 58 | 17 | 5 | 54 | .280 | .346 | .393 | .330 | 77 | 77 | 0 | 23 | .311 |
| average* | 671 | 600 | 86 | 170 | 26 | 2 | 12 | 64 | 16 | 5 | 58 | .283 | .351 | .394 | .332 | 80 | 78 | 1 | 24 | .317 |
| 2010 | 739 | 663 | 111 | 179 | 30 | 3 | 10 | 67 | 18 | 5 | 63 | .270 | .340 | .370 | .319 | 82 | 72 | -5 | 20 | .307 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average (does not include SB/CS)
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAA: BR above an average player in projected playing time (adjusted for park, but not for position)
BRAR: BR above a replacement level player (adjusted for park and position)
2010: Un-adjusted 2010 performance
*average does not include bill_james or fans
Kind of grim. The projections do think Jeter will be better in 2011, but only by about 5 runs or so.
CAIRO likes him more than most of the other projections. Here are his percentile forecasts.
| cairo % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAA | BRAR | BABIP |
| 80% | 734 | 655 | 109 | 197 | 33 | 3 | 16 | 78 | 18 | 6 | 70 | .301 | .378 | .431 | .361 | 102 | 90 | 14 | 40 | .330 |
| 65% | 713 | 636 | 104 | 188 | 31 | 2 | 14 | 74 | 16 | 6 | 66 | .295 | .369 | .418 | .352 | 94 | 86 | 10 | 35 | .326 |
| Baseline | 699 | 624 | 99 | 181 | 29 | 2 | 13 | 70 | 15 | 5 | 63 | .290 | .361 | .405 | .342 | 88 | 82 | 5 | 30 | .322 |
| 35% | 629 | 562 | 82 | 154 | 22 | 1 | 9 | 57 | 11 | 3 | 51 | .274 | .335 | .366 | .314 | 67 | 69 | -7 | 15 | .311 |
| 20% | 559 | 499 | 67 | 129 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 41 | .258 | .309 | .327 | .285 | 49 | 57 | -17 | 3 | .299 |
To be honest, until I see something that makes me think differently, I have to assume Jeter’s going to be closer to that 35% forecast, which is around what he did in 2010.
Defense
Jeter won his fifth Gold Glove in 2010, which should tell you all you need to know about his defense. Either that, or it tells you how useless the Gold Glove awards are.
| Player | Jeter, Derek | |||||||
| Pos | SS | |||||||
| year | G | Inn | DRS | zRS | uRS | tRS | avg | rARM |
| 2006 | 150 | 1292 | -18 | -5 | -7 | -5 | -9 | 0 |
| 2007 | 155 | 1318 | -23 | -20 | -18 | -22 | -21 | 0 |
| 2008 | 148 | 1258 | -9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 2009 | 150 | 1260 | 2 | -3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| 2010 | 151 | 1285 | -13 | -18 | -7 | -12 | -12 | 0 |
| avg | 151 | 1283 | -12 | -9 | -5 | -7 | -8 | 0 |
| w_avg | 151 | 1278 | -10 | -9 | -3 | -7 | -7 | 0 |
DRS: Defensive runs saved compared to average using John Dewan’s plus/minus system
zRS: Runs saved compared to average using Chris Dial’s zone rating system
uRS: Runs saved compared to average using UZR
tRS: Runs saved compared to average using Total Zone
rARM: Runs saved with arm compared to average (OF only)
avg: average from 2006-2010
w_avg: weighted average from 2006-2010 (5/4/3/2/1 weight)
You need to remember that when you’re looking at these numbers, they are comparing Jeter to his fellow shortstops. He just doesn’t compare well to his peers in any of the defensive metrics. We also need to remember what these numbers are telling us. They’re not saying Jeter misses two or three plays a game. An average of -7 for the season means Jeter’s missing something like one play every four weeks.
Like I’ve said before, when all the metrics basically say the same thing, I am willing to trust them. The thing is, it’s possible Jeter may actually be even worse than these numbers show, as Colin Wyers has done some research that shows a possible range bias by the people who track defense. I have no idea how much worse that might make Jeter, but I’d also assume if he becomes that obviously bad he won’t be playing shortstop full-time.
Base Running
| Year | ga_opps | ga_r | aa_opps | aa_r | ha_opps | ha_r | oa_opps | oa_r | total_opps | total_r |
| 2007 | 38 | 0 | 58 | 1 | 56 | 3 | 462 | 0 | 614 | 3 |
| 2008 | 35 | 0 | 54 | 1 | 58 | 1 | 389 | -1 | 536 | 1 |
| 2009 | 42 | 0 | 77 | -1 | 65 | 1 | 554 | -1 | 738 | -1 |
| 2010 | 38 | -1 | 54 | 1 | 63 | 0 | 498 | 1 | 653 | 2 |
| Proj | 39 | 0 | 61 | 0 | 62 | 1 | 489 | 0 | 651 | 1 |
ga_opps: opportunities to advance on grounders
ga_r: run value of advances on grounders
aa_opps: opportunites to advance on air outs
aa_r: run value of advances on air outs
ha_opps: opportunites to advance on hits
ha_r: run value of advances on hits
oa_opps: opportunites to adance on other (wild pitches, passed balls, etc.,)
oa_r: run value of advances on other
total_opps: ga + aa + ha + ao opportunities
total_r: total run value of non-SB base running, compared to average
Between his SB and non-SB base running, Jeter’s still an asset, although that’s less likely to hold true as he ages.
We’ll be hearing about Jeter’s run at 3000 hits for the first few months of the season, which is bizarre since it happened on June 5th of last season. But to humor those who don’t realize it, Jeter should probably be close to getting his 3000th hit by the second week of June. June 7 through 9 is a three game home series with Boston, and that seems like a good time for it to happen (for the second time).
I’m somewhat pessimistic about Jeter going forward, because even if his offense gets better his defense is almost certainly going to get worse. It doesn’t mean I dislike him. If I was him I’d play until they ripped the uniform off my back. It’ll be up to the Yankees to figure out how they want to handle the scenario where Jeter begins actively hurting the team if/when it manifests itself. I don’t think that will happen in 2011, but I’m positive it will happen before he retires.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Looking Ahead To 2011 - Alex Rodriguez
If you go by Baseball Reference’s version of wins above replacement(WAR), Alex Rodriguez had what was probably the worst full season of his career in 2010.
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | PA | WAR |
| 1996 | 20 | SEA | AL | 677 | 9.4 |
| 1997 | 21 | SEA | AL | 638 | 4.8 |
| 1998 | 22 | SEA | AL | 748 | 7.9 |
| 1999 | 23 | SEA | AL | 572 | 4.7 |
| 2000 | 24 | SEA | AL | 672 | 11.0 |
| 2001 | 25 | TEX | AL | 732 | 8.0 |
| 2002 | 26 | TEX | AL | 725 | 8.2 |
| 2003 | 27 | TEX | AL | 715 | 7.7 |
| 2004 | 28 | NYY | AL | 698 | 6.2 |
| 2005 | 29 | NYY | AL | 715 | 8.4 |
| 2006 | 30 | NYY | AL | 674 | 4.2 |
| 2007 | 31 | NYY | AL | 708 | 9.9 |
| 2008 | 32 | NYY | AL | 594 | 5.4 |
| 2009 | 33 | NYY | AL | 535 | 3.9 |
| 2010 | 34 | NYY | AL | 595 | 2.9 |
Given his age and his hip injury that’s not surprising. However, the degree of his drop was larger than projected. Rodriguez’s average projection heading into 2010 was for a line of .285/.387/.543 which would have been worth about 48 runs above replacement level. A slightly lower run environment combined with his worse than expected hitting meant he was in fact only worth about 37 runs above replacement level offensively.
So of course, the question is why.
| Season | BIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | LD% | HR/FB | BB/PA | K/PA |
| 2007 | 441 | .309 | 44.0% | 44.9% | 18.1% | 27.3% | 16.3% | 20.6% |
| 2008 | 378 | .328 | 44.2% | 42.1% | 19.0% | 22.0% | 12.7% | 22.9% |
| 2009 | 329 | .303 | 45.0% | 40.1% | 21.3% | 22.7% | 18.0% | 21.8% |
| 2010 | 420 | .274 | 47.6% | 41.7% | 14.3% | 17.1% | 11.3% | 18.8% |
| Career | 3581 | .318 | 42.2% | 40.0% | 17.8% | 23.1% | 12.7% | 20.8% |
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that were ground balls
FB%: Percentage of balls in play that were fly balls
LD%: Percentage of balls in play that were line drives
HR/FB: Home runs per fly ball
The .274 BABIP was the lowest of Rodriguez’s career, although he does have seasons of .281 (1999) and .290 (2002) on his ledger. Rodriguez’s line drive percentage plummeted, as did his walk rate. He actually struck out less frequently, but all that meant was he made more outs on balls in play. I think it’s a safe assumption that Rodriguez was not hitting the ball as hard in 2010 as he had prior, although we don’t know if that explains the entire drop in his BABIP and HR/FB.
Another oddity about Rodriguez’s 2010 was his poor hitting against LHP. He’s hit .217/.314/.441 against them compared to .290/.352/.530 vs. RHP in 2010. He actually does have a slight reverse platoon split for his career (.290/.387/.567 compared to vs. LHP .307/.387/.573 vs RHP) but the 2010 performance sure looks like an outlier.
A rebound by Rodriguez is going to be key if the Yankees are going to contend for the postseason in 2011, so let’s look at what the projections think.
Offense
| projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAA | BRAR | BABIP |
| bill_james | 621 | 545 | 95 | 155 | 27 | 1 | 35 | 116 | 10 | 4 | 76 | .284 | .372 | .530 | .388 | 103 | 108 | 29 | 50 | .306 |
| fans | 590 | 522 | 89 | 149 | 29 | 2 | 31 | 108 | 6 | 2 | 68 | .285 | .378 | .527 | .392 | 98 | 108 | 27 | 48 | .302 |
| cairo | 594 | 510 | 88 | 143 | 27 | 1 | 32 | 116 | 11 | 3 | 69 | .280 | .370 | .525 | .384 | 97 | 106 | 26 | 46 | .293 |
| marcel | 551 | 479 | 74 | 129 | 24 | 1 | 26 | 96 | 10 | 3 | 60 | .269 | .354 | .486 | .363 | 81 | 96 | 16 | 35 | .289 |
| oliver | 562 | 485 | 77 | 131 | 23 | 1 | 29 | 88 | 8 | 3 | 65 | .270 | .361 | .501 | .372 | 86 | 99 | 19 | 38 | .287 |
| pecota | 621 | 533 | 88 | 145 | 25 | 1 | 34 | 93 | 13 | 4 | 75 | .272 | .370 | .514 | .381 | 99 | 104 | 25 | 47 | .288 |
| zips | 537 | 459 | 73 | 127 | 23 | 1 | 30 | 103 | 10 | 3 | 63 | .277 | .369 | .527 | .383 | 87 | 105 | 23 | 42 | .285 |
| average* | 573 | 493 | 80 | 135 | 24 | 1 | 30 | 99 | 10 | 3 | 66 | .274 | .365 | .511 | .377 | 90 | 102 | 22 | 42 | .288 |
| 2010 | 595 | 522 | 74 | 141 | 29 | 2 | 30 | 125 | 4 | 3 | 59 | .270 | .341 | .506 | .360 | 88 | 96 | 17 | 37 | .274 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average (does not include SB/CS)
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAA: BR above an average player in projected playing time (adjusted for park, but not for position)
BRAR: BR above a replacement level player (adjusted for park and position)
2010: Un-adjusted 2010 performance
*average does not include bill_james or fans
The projections do expect a better Rodriguez in 2011, albeit only slightly better. At age 35, the clock isn’t on his side.
Here are his CAIRO percentile forecasts.
| cairo % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAA | BRAR |
| 80% | 624 | 536 | 99 | 159 | 32 | 2 | 38 | 130 | 14 | 4 | 79 | .297 | .398 | .575 | .416 | 115 | 120 | 40 | 62 |
| 65% | 606 | 520 | 93 | 150 | 29 | 1 | 35 | 122 | 12 | 4 | 73 | .289 | .384 | .550 | .400 | 105 | 113 | 32 | 54 |
| Baseline | 594 | 510 | 88 | 143 | 27 | 1 | 32 | 116 | 11 | 3 | 69 | .280 | .370 | .525 | .384 | 97 | 106 | 26 | 46 |
| 35% | 535 | 459 | 75 | 123 | 22 | 0 | 26 | 100 | 8 | 2 | 58 | .269 | .351 | .490 | .361 | 79 | 95 | 15 | 34 |
| 20% | 475 | 408 | 63 | 105 | 17 | 0 | 21 | 84 | 6 | 1 | 49 | .257 | .331 | .455 | .338 | 62 | 85 | 6 | 23 |
I’m not sure how feasible it is to think Rodriguez can achieve the upper end of those forecasts, so here’s a list of the best seasons by a player aged 35 or older in terms of total linear weights batting runs.
| Rank | playerID | yearID | teamID | lgID | Age | BR |
| 1 | bondsba01 | 2001 | SFN | NL | 37 | 185 |
| 2 | bondsba01 | 2004 | SFN | NL | 40 | 173 |
| 3 | bondsba01 | 2002 | SFN | NL | 38 | 169 |
| 4 | mcgwima01 | 1998 | SLN | NL | 35 | 163 |
| 5 | ruthba01 | 1931 | NYA | AL | 36 | 158 |
| 6 | ruthba01 | 1930 | NYA | AL | 35 | 157 |
| 7 | mcgwima01 | 1999 | SLN | NL | 36 | 142 |
| 8 | bondsba01 | 2003 | SFN | NL | 39 | 140 |
| 9 | speaktr01 | 1923 | CLE | AL | 35 | 139 |
| 10 | willite01 | 1957 | BOS | AL | 39 | 137 |
| 11 | bondsba01 | 2000 | SFN | NL | 36 | 134 |
| 12 | palmera01 | 1999 | TEX | AL | 35 | 133 |
| 13 | sheffga01 | 2003 | ATL | NL | 35 | 133 |
| 14 | ruthba01 | 1932 | NYA | AL | 37 | 132 |
| 15 | walkela01 | 2001 | COL | NL | 35 | 131 |
| 16 | thompsa01 | 1895 | PHI | NL | 35 | 129 |
| 17 | martied01 | 1998 | SEA | AL | 35 | 125 |
| 18 | martied01 | 2000 | SEA | AL | 37 | 125 |
| 19 | galaran01 | 1996 | COL | NL | 35 | 124 |
| 20 | palmera01 | 2001 | TEX | AL | 37 | 124 |
| 21 | lajoina01 | 1910 | CLE | AL | 36 | 122 |
| 22 | galaran01 | 1997 | COL | NL | 36 | 122 |
| 23 | odoulle01 | 1932 | BRO | NL | 35 | 122 |
| 24 | molitpa01 | 1993 | TOR | AL | 37 | 121 |
| 25 | fournja01 | 1925 | BRO | NL | 36 | 120 |
| 26 | evansdw01 | 1987 | BOS | AL | 36 | 120 |
| 27 | galaran01 | 1998 | ATL | NL | 37 | 120 |
| 28 | gehrilo01 | 1938 | NYA | AL | 35 | 120 |
| 29 | broutda01 | 1894 | BLN | NL | 36 | 119 |
| 30 | aaronha01 | 1971 | ATL | NL | 37 | 119 |
| 31 | molitpa01 | 1991 | ML4 | AL | 35 | 119 |
| 32 | aaronha01 | 1969 | ATL | NL | 35 | 119 |
| 33 | palmera01 | 2000 | TEX | AL | 36 | 118 |
| 34 | palmera01 | 2002 | TEX | AL | 38 | 118 |
| 35 | mizejo01 | 1948 | NY1 | NL | 35 | 118 |
| 36 | jonesch06 | 2007 | ATL | NL | 35 | 118 |
| 37 | musiast01 | 1955 | SLN | NL | 35 | 117 |
| 38 | willite01 | 1954 | BOS | AL | 36 | 117 |
| 39 | gehrich01 | 1938 | DET | AL | 35 | 117 |
| 40 | fournja01 | 1924 | BRO | NL | 35 | 117 |
| 41 | thomeji01 | 2006 | CHA | AL | 36 | 117 |
| 42 | thomafr04 | 2003 | CHA | AL | 35 | 116 |
| 43 | gonzalu01 | 2003 | ARI | NL | 36 | 116 |
| 44 | wheatza01 | 1925 | BRO | NL | 37 | 116 |
| 45 | martied01 | 1999 | SEA | AL | 36 | 116 |
| 46 | gwynnto01 | 1997 | SDN | NL | 37 | 115 |
| 47 | henrito01 | 1948 | NYA | AL | 35 | 115 |
| 48 | connoro01 | 1892 | PHI | NL | 35 | 115 |
| 49 | gosligo01 | 1936 | DET | AL | 36 | 114 |
| 50 | anderbr01 | 1999 | BAL | AL | 35 | 113 |
| 51 | wheatza01 | 1924 | BRO | NL | 36 | 113 |
| 52 | musiast01 | 1957 | SLN | NL | 37 | 113 |
| 53 | sheffga01 | 2004 | NYA | AL | 36 | 113 |
| 54 | rosepe01 | 1976 | CIN | NL | 35 | 113 |
| 55 | aloumo01 | 2004 | CHN | NL | 38 | 113 |
| 56 | delahed01 | 1902 | WS1 | AL | 35 | 113 |
| 57 | jeterde01 | 2009 | NYA | AL | 35 | 113 |
| 58 | cobbty01 | 1921 | DET | AL | 35 | 113 |
| 59 | oliveal01 | 1982 | MON | NL | 36 | 113 |
| 60 | bagweje01 | 2003 | HOU | NL | 35 | 112 |
| 61 | mcraeha01 | 1982 | KCA | AL | 37 | 111 |
| 62 | brettge01 | 1988 | KCA | AL | 35 | 111 |
| 63 | schmimi01 | 1986 | PHI | NL | 37 | 111 |
| 64 | ruthba01 | 1933 | NYA | AL | 38 | 111 |
| 65 | vernomi01 | 1953 | WS1 | AL | 35 | 111 |
| 66 | dimagjo01 | 1950 | NYA | AL | 36 | 111 |
| 67 | greenha01 | 1946 | DET | AL | 35 | 110 |
| 68 | cobbty01 | 1922 | DET | AL | 36 | 110 |
| 69 | musiast01 | 1956 | SLN | NL | 36 | 110 |
| 70 | mcgrifr01 | 1999 | TBA | AL | 36 | 110 |
| 71 | stoveha01 | 1891 | BSN | NL | 35 | 109 |
| 72 | averiea01 | 1937 | CLE | AL | 35 | 109 |
| 73 | downibr01 | 1987 | CAL | AL | 37 | 109 |
| 74 | molitpa01 | 1996 | MIN | AL | 40 | 109 |
| 75 | johnsbo01 | 1944 | BOS | AL | 39 | 109 |
| 76 | sheffga01 | 2005 | NYA | AL | 37 | 109 |
| 77 | cobbty01 | 1924 | DET | AL | 38 | 108 |
| 78 | willicy01 | 1924 | PHI | NL | 37 | 108 |
| 79 | walkela01 | 2002 | COL | NL | 36 | 108 |
| 80 | rosepe01 | 1979 | PHI | NL | 38 | 107 |
| 81 | aaronha01 | 1970 | ATL | NL | 36 | 107 |
| 82 | winfida01 | 1988 | NYA | AL | 37 | 107 |
| 83 | bicheda01 | 1998 | COL | NL | 35 | 107 |
| 84 | posadjo01 | 2007 | NYA | AL | 36 | 107 |
| 85 | careyma01 | 1925 | PIT | NL | 35 | 107 |
| 86 | jonesch06 | 2008 | ATL | NL | 36 | 107 |
| 87 | oneilpa01 | 1998 | NYA | AL | 35 | 106 |
| 88 | molitpa01 | 1992 | ML4 | AL | 36 | 106 |
| 89 | mayswi01 | 1966 | SFN | NL | 35 | 106 |
| 90 | willite01 | 1956 | BOS | AL | 38 | 105 |
| 91 | willicy01 | 1922 | PHI | NL | 35 | 105 |
| 92 | collied01 | 1924 | CHA | AL | 37 | 105 |
| 93 | surhobj01 | 1999 | BAL | AL | 35 | 105 |
| 94 | delgaca01 | 2008 | NYN | NL | 36 | 104 |
| 95 | martied01 | 2001 | SEA | AL | 38 | 104 |
| 96 | wagneho01 | 1912 | PIT | NL | 38 | 104 |
| 97 | gracema01 | 1999 | CHN | NL | 35 | 104 |
| 98 | willicy01 | 1923 | PHI | NL | 36 | 104 |
| 99 | schmimi01 | 1985 | PHI | NL | 36 | 104 |
| 100 | giambja01 | 2006 | NYA | AL | 35 | 104 |
| 101 | schmimi01 | 1987 | PHI | NL | 38 | 104 |
| 102 | biggicr01 | 2001 | HOU | NL | 36 | 104 |
| 103 | bicheda01 | 1999 | COL | NL | 36 | 104 |
| 104 | richaha01 | 1890 | BSP | PL | 35 | 104 |
| 105 | heltoto01 | 2009 | COL | NL | 36 | 104 |
| 106 | sauerha01 | 1952 | CHN | NL | 35 | 103 |
| 107 | walketi01 | 1922 | PHA | AL | 35 | 103 |
| 108 | speaktr01 | 1925 | CLE | AL | 37 | 103 |
| 109 | ryanji01 | 1898 | CHN | NL | 35 | 103 |
| 110 | sauerha01 | 1954 | CHN | NL | 37 | 102 |
| 111 | suzukic01 | 2009 | SEA | AL | 36 | 102 |
| 112 | joosted01 | 1951 | PHA | AL | 35 | 102 |
| 113 | schmimi01 | 1984 | PHI | NL | 35 | 102 |
| 114 | averiea01 | 1938 | CLE | AL | 36 | 102 |
| 115 | hackst01 | 1945 | CHN | NL | 36 | 102 |
| 116 | winfida01 | 1992 | TOR | AL | 41 | 102 |
| 117 | gonzalu01 | 2002 | ARI | NL | 35 | 102 |
| 118 | rosepe01 | 1977 | CIN | NL | 36 | 101 |
| 119 | willite01 | 1958 | BOS | AL | 40 | 101 |
| 120 | kentje01 | 2005 | LAN | NL | 37 | 101 |
| 121 | ibanera01 | 2008 | SEA | AL | 36 | 101 |
| 122 | terrybi01 | 1934 | NY1 | NL | 36 | 101 |
| 123 | aloumo01 | 2001 | HOU | NL | 35 | 101 |
| 124 | thornan01 | 1984 | CLE | AL | 35 | 101 |
| 125 | yastrca01 | 1977 | BOS | AL | 38 | 101 |
| 126 | palmera01 | 2003 | TEX | AL | 39 | 100 |
| 127 | finlest01 | 2000 | ARI | NL | 35 | 100 |
| 128 | burnije01 | 2004 | COL | NL | 35 | 100 |
| 129 | jacksre01 | 1982 | CAL | AL | 36 | 100 |
| 130 | cobbty01 | 1925 | DET | AL | 39 | 100 |
There are 8674 age 35 or older seasons in MLB history. Of those seasons, only 130 of them have been worth at least 100 batting runs. It’s probably safe to say that eight of the top 12 seasons have a very good probability of having been chemically enhanced.
A few Yankees of recent vintage snuck into this list, including 2004 Gary Sheffield (#54 overall), 2009 Derek Jeter (#57), 2005 Sheffield (#76), 2007 Jorge Posada (#84), 1998 Paul O’Neill (#87) AND 2006 Jason Giambi (#100). Johnny Damon 2009 (#161) and Johnny Damon 2008 (#205) just missed the cut.
Of course, when you talk about Alex Rodriguez, you’re probably talking about one of the best players in baseball history. I’m pretty comfortable that Rodriguez is a better hitter right now than any of those recent vintage Yankees were at the time they had their big 35+ seasons. While it’s not the most likely scenario, he’s as good a bet as anyone to have a monster year at age 35, although achieving the heights of top of this list seems unlikely unless he gets into Giambi’s stash of super-secret designer undetectable steroids.
Base Running
| Year | ga_opps | ga_r | aa_opps | aa_r | ha_opps | ha_r | oa_opps | oa_r | total_opps | total_r |
| 2007 | 27 | 0 | 54 | 1 | 58 | 2 | 370 | 0 | 509 | 4 |
| 2008 | 19 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 290 | 1 | 388 | 2 |
| 2009 | 18 | 1 | 42 | 0 | 29 | -2 | 239 | 0 | 328 | -2 |
| 2010 | 21 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 36 | -1 | 278 | 0 | 362 | -1 |
| Proj | 20 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 37 | -1 | 278 | 0 | 372 | 0 |
ga_opps: opportunities to advance on grounders
ga_r: run value of advances on grounders
aa_opps: opportunites to advance on air outs
aa_r: run value of advances on air outs
ha_opps: opportunites to advance on hits
ha_r: run value of advances on hits
oa_opps: opportunites to adance on other (wild pitches, passed balls, etc.,)
oa_r: run value of advances on other
total_opps: ga + aa + ha + ao opportunities
total_r: total run value of non-SB base running, compared to average
Since injuring his hip, Rodriguez has not been able to provide much value on the basepaths in both SB and non-SB baserunning. If he’s healthier he may be able to reverse that trend, but I’m not sure that we want him being overly aggressive on the bases if it means a greater risk of injury.
Defense
| Player | Rodriguez, Alex | |||||||
| Pos | 3B | |||||||
| year | G | Inn | DRS | zRS | uRS | tRS | avg | rARM |
| 2006 | 151 | 1287 | -12 | -8 | -14 | -7 | -10 | 0 |
| 2007 | 154 | 1330 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2008 | 131 | 1126 | -2 | -1 | -2 | -2 | -2 | 0 |
| 2009 | 116 | 974 | -8 | -6 | -6 | -6 | -7 | 0 |
| 2010 | 124 | 1029 | -3 | -2 | -2 | -6 | -3 | 0 |
| avg | 135 | 1149 | -5 | -3 | -5 | -4 | -4 | 0 |
| w_avg | 129 | 1091 | -4 | -3 | -4 | -4 | -4 | 0 |
DRS: Defensive runs saved compared to average using John Dewan’s plus/minus system
zRS: Runs saved compared to average using Chris Dial’s zone rating system
uRS: Runs saved compared to average using UZR
tRS: Runs saved compared to average using Total Zone
rARM: Runs saved with arm compared to average (OF only)
avg: average from 2006-2010
w_avg: weighted average from 2006-2010 (5/4/3/2/1 weight)
Rodriguez’s defense just doesn’t rate all that well no matter what metric you look at. It’s kind of tough to judge 3B defense visually because of how hard some of the chances they have to field are hit, but somewhere in the -5 range for Rodriguez seems about right. If he has better lateral movement as he moves further away from his hip surgery he can probably be better than that, but I wouldn’t expect him to rate better than average at any point going forward.
Despite his age, I think the gap between what Rodriguez projects to do and what he could do is bigger than that of any other Yankee position player. Like just about every player in history, he has come into spring training in great shape. On a more serious note, he has looked very good so far, not that it tells us much.
I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a monster year, and if he does that the Yankees will have as good of a shot as anyone of being the team that will lose to Philadelphia in the World Series.
Monday, February 28, 2011
TGS New York: Derek Jeter adjusting to new stride
Jeter has come to bat six times this spring, and six times he has hit the ball on the ground.
Should be a fun four years.










