Replacement Level Yankees Weblog

THT: More sliders, more success for Logan
(13 Comments - 5/17/2012 4:19:58 pm)

THT: 10th anniversary: Giambi’s walk-off slam
(11 Comments - 5/17/2012 3:49:43 pm)

Yankees.com: Onslaught helps Drabek drop Yankees
(23 Comments - 5/17/2012 1:06:25 pm)

Yankees (20-16) @ Blue Jays (19-18), Wednesday, May 16, 2012, 7:07pm **Game Chatter**
(45 Comments - 5/16/2012 10:52:22 pm)

Yahoo: Yankees-Blue Jays Preview
(17 Comments - 5/16/2012 6:58:05 pm)

Beyond the Box Score: A PITCHf/x Look At Eight Rookie Starters
(13 Comments - 5/16/2012 11:21:29 am)

Yankees.com: Without much help, CC handed first defeat
(14 Comments - 5/16/2012 10:22:31 am)

Yankees (20-15) @ Orioles (22-14), Tuesday, May 15, 2012, 7:05 pm
(39 Comments - 5/15/2012 10:01:33 pm)

Yankees.com: Yanks place new closer Robertson on DL
(2 Comments - 5/15/2012 6:51:35 pm)

Player A vs. Player B
(34 Comments - 5/15/2012 5:10:18 pm)


Player	Current	Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

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Friday, May 11, 2012

NJ.com: Carig: Brett Gardner to miss at least two more weeks, Yankees say

NEW YORK — Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner will miss at least two more weeks after an MRI exam yesterday revealed he has reinjured his right elbow.

“We’re going to be without Gardy for a while here,” manager Joe Girardi said after the Yankees beat the Rays, 5-3 Thursday. “It’s very unfortunate. He swung the bat well in Triple-A, but somehow he irritated that muscle again.”

Even if you think Gardner’s defense is overrated, there’s no question the Yankees miss him.

Player	PA	AB	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	K	GDP	BA	OBA	Slug%	woba	br
Raul Ibanez	31	28	8	2	0	1	3	3	0	5	2	0.286	0.355	0.464	.358	4
Andruw Jones	25	21	3	1	0	1	2	4	0	9	0	0.143	0.28	0.333	.279	2
Eduardo Nunez	10	10	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.1	0.1	0.1	.090	0
Jayson Nix	6	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	.000	-1
DeWayne Wise	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	.000	0
Total	76	69	12	3	0	2	5	7	0	19	2	.174	.250	.304	.249	5
Gardner	76	65	17	3	1	1	6	8	1	13	1	.262	.352	.371	.324	9

woba: Weighted on-base average
br: linear weights batting runs

That’s what the Yankees have gotten out of LF since Gardner went down on April 17 compared to his baseline CAIRO projection pro-rated to the same # of PA. I’m not even including baserunning or SB in the BR, and this ignores defense as well. Purely in the batter’s box the Yankees have lost close to half a win. I wouldn’t be surprised if by the time he’s back the Yankees will have lost a full win if you factor in everything.

That being said, I’m not sure a trade is imminent or makes much sense. It might make sense if the Yankees are considering a youngish OF who can take over should they let Nick Swisher walk at the end of the year, but the cost for that is likely to be pretty steep and it’s probably not a huge upgrade for 2012.

--Posted at 8:48 am by SG / 17 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

The Postseason Implications of This Week’s Series with Tampa Bay

The Yankees begin a six game homestand tonight with Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is tied for first place with Baltimore, but it’s a pretty safe bet that they’re better than Baltimore and are a bigger threat to the Yankees’ chances at winning the division.

At the beginning of the season, the Yankees projected about three games better than Tampa Bay (94 wins vs. 91 wins) but the Rays now have a 3.5 game lead and the Yankees are a bit weaker with Michael Pineda on the shelf. Based on what’s happened so far and playing out the rest of the season according to how the teams project going forward gives me a final AL East standings projection that looks something like this.

TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC1	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rays	91	71	761	682	44.6%	26.0%	12.8%	83.4%	2.1	-4	-1
Yankees	91	71	833	718	42.8%	26.0%	13.2%	82.0%	-3.7	-4	6
Red Sox	84	78	841	769	6.9%	9.2%	16.6%	32.7%	-7.1	12	35
Blue Jays	82	80	773	755	4.9%	8.3%	13.4%	26.6%	1.2	0	-21
Orioles	78	84	719	783	0.9%	2.3%	4.8%	8.0%	8.3	6	-36

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: 2012 revised projected wins minus 2012 pre-season projected wins
RS+/-: 2012 revised projected runs scored minus 2012 pre-season projected runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2012 revised projected runs allowed minus 2012 pre-season projected runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

The pitching matchups for this series are as follows.

Tuesday, May 8: The Undefeated James Shields (5-0, 3.05 ERA) vs. Ivan Nova (3-1, 5.58 ERA)
Wednesday, May 9: Jeff Niemann (2-3, 4.05 ERA) vs. David Phelps (0-1, 3.74 ERA)
Thursday, May 10: David Price (5-1, 2.35 ERA) vs. CC Sabathia (4-0, 4.15 ERA)

So here are how the standings and postseason odds change based on the various potential outcomes of this series.

Rays 3-0	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC1	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rays	93	69	761	682	61.0%	18.8%	8.3%	88.1%	3.8	-4	-1
Yankees	89	73	833	718	26.2%	28.5%	17.0%	71.7%	-5.3	-4	6
Red Sox	83	79	841	769	5.6%	11.7%	15.4%	32.8%	-7.5	12	35
Blue Jays	83	79	773	755	6.2%	10.2%	15.1%	31.5%	1.5	0	-21
Orioles	78	84	719	783	1.0%	2.8%	5.4%	9.2%	8.3	6	-36

Rays 2-1	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC1	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rays	92	70	761	682	51.9%	21.4%	12.5%	85.7%	2.7	-4	-1
Yankees	90	72	833	718	36.4%	26.4%	14.6%	77.4%	-4.3	-4	6
Red Sox	83	79	841	769	5.6%	10.5%	16.7%	32.8%	-7.4	12	35
Blue Jays	83	79	773	755	5.4%	9.6%	12.9%	27.9%	1.4	0	-21
Orioles	78	84	719	783	0.8%	2.0%	6.5%	9.3%	8.0	6	-36

Yankees 2-1	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC1	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Yankees	91	71	833	718	44.7%	24.9%	13.9%	83.5%	-3.4	-4	6
Rays	91	71	761	682	40.4%	24.5%	13.2%	78.1%	1.8	-4	-1
Red Sox	83	79	841	769	7.9%	9.9%	16.1%	34.0%	-7.2	12	35
Blue Jays	82	80	773	755	5.5%	8.4%	12.7%	26.5%	1.2	0	-21
Orioles	78	84	719	783	1.5%	3.0%	5.7%	10.2%	8.2	6	-36

Yankees 3-0	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC1	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Yankees	92	70	833	718	52.1%	22.1%	11.3%	85.5%	-2.6	-4	6
Rays	90	72	761	682	33.9%	26.6%	15.7%	76.2%	0.8	-4	-1
Red Sox	84	78	841	769	7.7%	11.2%	15.1%	34.0%	-7.1	12	35
Blue Jays	82	80	773	755	5.1%	7.6%	14.5%	27.2%	1.2	0	-21
Orioles	78	84	719	783	1.1%	2.4%	6.4%	10.0%	8.4	6	-36

Sure, it’s early. And yes, the Yankees play the Rays enough times over the rest of the season to make up any ground they lose in this series, but this is still a pretty important series. You might even say it’s the most important series of the season so far.

--Posted at 9:45 am by SG / 23 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

April 2012 Log 5 Checkpoint

Back on April 8, I ran a log 5 expectation table for what the Yankees should have done in April. Given the projections of their opponents and accounting for home field advantage I pegged them going around 13-10.

Date	Game	xW	xL	cxW	cxL	aW	aL	caW	caL	delta
4/6	Yankees @ Rays	0.49	0.51	0.49	0.51	0	1	0	1	-0.49
4/7	Yankees @ Rays	0.49	0.51	0.97	1.03	0	1	0	2	-0.97
4/8	Yankees @ Rays	0.49	0.51	1.46	1.54	0	1	0	3	-1.46
4/9	Yankees @ Orioles	0.59	0.41	2.05	1.95	1	0	1	3	-1.05
4/10	Yankees @ Orioles	0.59	0.41	2.63	2.37	1	0	2	3	-0.63
4/11	Yankees @ Orioles	0.59	0.41	3.22	2.78	1	0	3	3	-0.22
4/13	Angels @ Yankees	0.58	0.42	3.80	3.20	1	0	4	3	0.20
4/14	Angels @ Yankees	0.58	0.42	4.38	3.62	0	1	4	4	-0.38
4/15	Angels @ Yankees	0.58	0.42	4.96	4.04	1	0	5	4	0.04
4/16	Twins @ Yankees	0.69	0.31	5.64	4.36	0	1	5	5	-0.64
4/17	Twins @ Yankees	0.69	0.31	6.33	4.67	1	0	6	5	-0.33
4/18	Twins @ Yankees	0.69	0.31	7.02	4.98	0	1	6	6	-1.02
4/19	Twins @ Yankees	0.69	0.31	7.71	5.29	1	0	7	6	-0.71
4/20	Yankees @ Red Sox	0.49	0.51	8.19	5.81	1	0	8	6	-0.19
4/21	Yankees @ Red Sox	0.49	0.51	8.68	6.32	1	0	9	6	0.32
4/22	Yankees @ Red Sox	0.00	0.00	8.68	6.32	0	0	9	6	0.32
4/23	Yankees @ Rangers	0.45	0.55	9.12	6.88	1	0	10	6	0.88
4/24	Yankees @ Rangers	0.45	0.55	9.57	7.43	0	1	10	7	0.43
4/25	Yankees @ Rangers	0.45	0.55	10.02	7.98	0	1	10	8	-0.02
4/27	Tigers @ Yankees	0.60	0.40	10.61	8.39	1	0	11	8	0.39
4/28	Tigers @ Yankees	0.60	0.40	11.21	8.79	0	1	11	9	-0.21
4/29	Tigers @ Yankees	0.60	0.40	11.81	9.19	1	0	12	9	0.19
4/30	Orioles @ Yankees	0.67	0.33	12.48	9.52	1	0	13	9	0.52

xW: Expected win probability for this game using Bill James’s log 5 methodology
xL: Expected loss probability for this game
cxW: Cumulative expected win probabilities
cxL: Cumulative expected loss probabilities
aW: Actual wins
aL: Actual losses
caW: Cumulative actual wins
caL: Cumulative actual losses
delta: caW minus cxW. Positive means better than expected

The rain out on April 22 means the final expected April record was about 12.5 - 9.5, so the Yankees are about 0.5 wins ahead of pace. Given the starting pitching they’ve gotten so far, that is amazing to me.

--Posted at 5:44 am by SG / 58 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, April 29, 2012

Does Derek Jeter now project to hit .300?

Like most stat-heads, I know that batting average is not really a good gauge of how good a player is. That doesn’t mean it’s useless, just that there are better stats to tell us how valuable a player is.

Despite that, I can’t help but find a .300 average more aesthetically pleasing than an average of .299 or less. Derek Jeter’s made a Hall of Fame career based primarily on hitting .300 or better (.314 career), but after his disappointing 2010 it seemed like those days were over. He rode a second-half hot streak in 2011 to the cusp of yet another .300 season, but his bid fell short in the season finale.

With his 2 for 3 earlier today Jeter now sits at .396/.440/.593 with nearly a month of the season over. I’m going to go out on a limb and say he will not finish the year at .396, since I hate him and all. But I wondered if he should now project to end the year at .300.

I can try and figure this out by running a revised CAIRO for Jeter including the data we have for 2012, then adding that revised projection to what he’s already done. It looks like this.

player	projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG
Derek Jeter	original	644	576	91	165	25	2	9	63	18	5	54	92	.286	.350	.384
Derek Jeter	ROY	562	504	80	149	23	1	9	57	15	5	46	79	.295	.356	.402
Derek Jeter	revised	658	592	95	183	29	1	13	70	16	6	52	90	.309	.364	.430

ROY: Rest of year projection.
revised: ROY plus 2012 performance

Jeter’s hot April has revised his CAIRO projection from .286/.350/.384 to .295/.356/.402. Adding that to what he’s done has him ending the year with a line of .309/.364/.430, which would make him worth close to 20 runs more than projected entering the year. ZiPS was less sanguine about Jeter heading into this season, but its revised projection has moved from .268/.329/.362 to .281/.341/.386 which is actually a bigger improvement relative to its orginal projection than CAIRO’s.

I’ll admit, I didn’t think he still had it in him. I’m happy to have been wrong so far, and hope I continue to be even wronger.

--Posted at 8:13 pm by SG / 24 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, April 22, 2012

How have the first two weeks of the 2012 MLB season changed team projections?

We’re roughly about 10% of the way throught the 2012 regular season, which is a pretty small sample size to make sweeping observations about how good or bad teams are. That doesn’t mean that what’s happened to this point isn’t important, because it is. I wanted to see what teams have seen the biggest shifts in their outlooks based on how they projected coming into the year compared what they have done since.

The way I looked at this involves three basic steps.

1) Get 2012 projections. In this case I’m using the average of the 2012 MLB projection blowout that I ran at the beginning of April.
2) Estimate revised team strength. For now, this is just a basic weighted average of the team’s projections heading into the year and their Pythagenpat performance to this point. I’m not making any adjustments for injuries/roster changes/etc., yet, although as we get deeper into the season I’ll probably do that.
3) Run the rest of the 2012 MLB season through my Monte Carlo simulator and see what happens. This includes a variable that alters team strength in each iteration to account for things that projections can’t account for.

Here’s what it says.

Date	4/22/2012
Iterations	100000
American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC1	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Yankees	94	68	848	718	49.0%	14.1%	24.0%	87.1%	-0.8	12	7
Rays	87	75	764	695	23.9%	15.0%	34.6%	73.5%	-2.0	-1	12
Red Sox	83	79	828	765	13.9%	11.2%	28.1%	53.1%	-7.6	-2	32
Blue Jays	81	81	780	775	11.6%	7.8%	21.4%	40.9%	-0.5	6	0
Orioles	70	92	712	812	1.6%	1.9%	6.2%	9.7%	0.1	-1	-6
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Tigers	88	74	780	730	46.6%	6.1%	17.7%	70.4%	2.9	-4	-6
Indians	86	76	779	758	33.4%	8.2%	22.3%	63.9%	3.6	12	7
White Sox	78	84	706	755	11.2%	4.4%	12.9%	28.5%	1.6	-1	-18
Royals	70	92	697	771	4.5%	0.8%	5.6%	10.9%	-4.8	-8	6
Twins	70	92	720	824	4.2%	0.9%	3.7%	8.8%	-1.6	-11	3
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	99	63	822	679	78.2%	7.4%	8.0%	93.6%	8.4	15	-24
Angels	85	77	738	667	17.0%	16.4%	28.9%	62.3%	-5.1	-3	6
Mariners	73	89	672	734	2.8%	3.2%	7.8%	13.8%	-1.5	-10	-7
Athletics	72	90	687	739	2.0%	2.8%	9.0%	13.8%	-4.1	-20	-17
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Braves	90	72	734	664	32.5%	11.3%	23.7%	67.5%	2.3	20	-2
Phillies	88	74	677	611	25.9%	12.4%	21.6%	59.9%	-1.4	-21	-17
Nationals	88	74	674	639	27.5%	10.4%	24.4%	62.3%	3.8	-8	-17
Marlins	82	80	699	672	11.3%	8.4%	18.2%	37.9%	-1.8	-8	-9
Mets	74	88	677	749	2.8%	3.0%	8.5%	14.3%	0.2	-6	-3
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Cardinals	94	68	740	662	53.9%	10.5%	16.8%	81.1%	7.2	9	-17
Brewers	86	76	700	677	21.2%	9.5%	19.0%	49.7%	1.2	1	13
Reds	84	78	699	665	18.7%	9.6%	21.5%	49.7%	-2.9	-16	5
Pirates	73	89	639	726	3.3%	1.8%	6.2%	11.3%	1.5	-29	-26
Cubs	68	94	652	757	1.8%	1.6%	2.8%	6.2%	-3.2	-4	7
Astros	66	96	607	747	1.2%	0.3%	1.2%	2.7%	1.9	3	-8
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Giants	85	77	672	649	29.6%	5.3%	14.9%	49.8%	0.6	0	2
Dodgers	83	79	649	674	22.7%	5.3%	11.1%	39.1%	8.1	8	-17
Diamondbacks	83	79	687	677	22.8%	4.3%	14.1%	41.2%	-1.3	-6	3
Rockies	81	81	751	744	20.1%	4.9%	12.6%	37.6%	-1.2	3	13
Padres	72	90	638	690	4.8%	1.4%	5.1%	11.3%	-3.5	-9	2

Good thing for Cliff Lee he signed with the young upstart Phillies instead of the old decrepit Yankees. And remember how the Rangers and Angels looked to be neck and neck heading into the year? Yeah. The Dodgers seem to have snuck their way into the division race now, but other than that the division standings look pretty similar to how they did entering the season.

And here’s a chart that shows the changes in revised team wins projections for each team.

TM	W+/-
Rangers	8.4
Dodgers	8.1
Cardinals	7.2
Nationals	3.8
Indians	3.6
Tigers	2.9
Braves	2.3
Astros	1.9
White Sox	1.6
Pirates	1.5
Brewers	1.2
Giants	0.6
Mets	0.2
Orioles	0.1
Blue Jays	-0.5
Yankees	-0.8
Rockies	-1.2
Diamondbacks	-1.3
Phillies	-1.4
Mariners	-1.5
Twins	-1.6
Marlins	-1.8
Rays	-2.0
Reds	-2.9
Cubs	-3.2
Padres	-3.5
Athletics	-4.1
Royals	-4.8
Angels	-5.1
Red Sox	-7.6

The Rangers have been destroying the competition and look like they’re probably the best team in baseball. The Dodgers and Cardinals are the biggest positive surprises in the National League so far. The Angels are the biggest disappointment in the AL.

But the Red Sox have to be the most pleasant surprise in baseball for me.

--Posted at 9:17 am by SG / 62 Comments | - (0)

Friday, April 20, 2012

A Tale of Two Log 5s

The Yankees have been a bit under their expected record to this point using Bill James’s log 5 expectations given pre-season projections for them and their respective opponents and adjusting for home/road advantage/disadvantage.

The Red Sox have been more than a bit under their expected record using the same criteria. Here’s how they compare.

Team	NYA
Date	Opp	xW	aW
6-Apr	@TAM	0.53	0
7-Apr	@TAM	0.53	0
8-Apr	@TAM	0.53	0
9-Apr	@BAL	0.65	1
10-Apr	@BAL	0.65	1
11-Apr	@BAL	0.65	1
13-Apr	LAA	0.52	1
14-Apr	LAA	0.52	0
15-Apr	LAA	0.52	1
16-Apr	MIN	0.64	0
17-Apr	MIN	0.64	1
18-Apr	MIN	0.64	0
19-Apr	MIN	0.64	1
		7.68	7.00

Team	BOS
Date	Opp	xW	aW
5-Apr	@DET	0.53	0
7-Apr	@DET	0.53	0
8-Apr	@DET	0.53	0
9-Apr	@TOR	0.56	1
10-Apr	@TOR	0.56	0
11-Apr	@TOR	0.56	0
13-Apr	TAM	0.51	1
14-Apr	TAM	0.51	1
15-Apr	TAM	0.51	1
16-Apr	TAM	0.51	0
17-Apr	TEX	0.50	0
18-Apr	TEX	0.50	0

		6.33	4.00

xW: Expected wins using log 5 and these pre-season projections
aW: Actual wins

The Yankees actually project as slight favorites in this series at 1.56 - 1.44. Here’s how the two teams’ would compare to their overall log 5 based on the various potential series outcomes.

Yankee sweep: Yankees aW: 10, xW: 9.23, Boston aW: 4, xW: 7.77
Yankees 2-1: Yankees aW: 9, xW: 9.23, Boston aW: 5, xw: 7.77
Boston 2-1: Yankees aW: 8, xW: 9.23, Boston aW: 6, xW: 7.77
Boston sweep: Yankees aW: 7, xW: 9.23, Boston aW: 7, xW: 7.77

So the Yankees really only need to win one of these games to remain closer to their relative expectations than Boston.

I’d obviously like to see more than that.

--Posted at 8:24 am by SG / 15 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, April 19, 2012

NY Post: Great grab sends Yankees’ Gardner to DL

The left fielder was scratched before Wednesday night’s game because of a sore right elbow and an MRI exam showed a bruise and a slight strain. He was placed on the 15-day disabled list.

This stinks,

The Yankees called up right-hander Cody Eppley from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to take Gardner’s place. Eppley was claimed from Texas at the end of spring training.

Sure, when you lose your starting LF, call up a right-handed relief specialist.

Gardner’s absence deprives the Yankeess of some speed and they will be forced to use Andruw Jones, Raul Ibanez and Eduardo Nunez more in left.

Yikes.

“His defense is the best part of this team,” said Jones, who had some adventures there last night.

‘

Yes it is Andruw. Yes it is.

Alright, enough snark. What is the impact of this?

Offense is not the issue. In fact, it’s possible a Jones/Ibanez platoon would be more productive at the plate than Gardner, although less so on the bases. Here are their respective CAIRO projections over 100 PA.

player	pa	avg	obp	slg	woba	br	woba vs L	woba vs R
Gardner	100	.262	.354	.371	.328	12	.308	.335
Jones	100	.224	.327	.431	.332	12	.348	.327
Ibanez	100	.269	.336	.474	.350	14	.324	.359

BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

This includes stolen bases, but not other base running. The impact of that over 25-30 games is probably on the order of about 1-2 runs.

Defense is the real issue here. Here are how the three players’ average defensive projections compare.

player	pos	Inn	DRS	UZR	TZ	ZR	avg rs	rs/9
Brett Gardner	LF	882	13	19	20	10	16	0.16
Andruw Jones	LF	161	1	1	0	0	1	0.03
Raul Ibanez	LF	1221	-8	-9	-6	-2	-6	-0.04

DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating

My eyes tell me Andruw Jones is not an average LF, but my eyes are probably comparing him to Brett Gardner. My eyes do tell me Ibanez is a horrific defender. You can use the rs/9 times number of games you think Gardner will miss to get a rough idea of the defensive impact. Over 20 games, Gardner would project to save about 3 runs above an average defender. Jones would project to be about 0.7 runs above an average defender and Ibanez would be about a run worse. So you’re probably looking at a defensive hit in the area of three runs.

So figure something like 0 runs difference on offense minus 1-2 runs on the bases - 3 runs on defense = -4 to -5 runs. You can fiddle around with platooning and defensive substituting and I haven’t included Nun-E in here since I have no idea how to project him defensively but it shouldn’t change the overall bottom line all that much.

Losing Gardner is not great news, but it’s not catastrophic, provided he can return within a month. With wrist injuries that’s never a sure thing though.

--Posted at 5:08 am by SG / 53 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, April 14, 2012

NY Post: Sherman: A-Rod HRs help, hurt Yankees

That $30 million seduction looked bad then — to blend immortality with a payday — and worse now for two reasons: 1) The Yankees are trying to get under the $189 million luxury-tax threshold beginning in 2014 to gain the financial benefits that are part of the new collective bargaining agreement. Those $6 million bonuses, if triggered, would count toward the payroll in the season they are earned. 2) The 2009 revelation that Rodriguez used steroids at least during his Ranger years devalued A-Rod, the TV Show, for the Yankees/YES while assuring Rodriguez that the accomplishment is as regretted as celebrated.

You got a preview of, at the least, how little joy and fanfare there will be should Rodriguez keep climbing on the homer list by the minimalist reaction yesterday. It was not long ago that becoming the fifth-leading homer hitter ever would have unleashed a standing ovation, wall-to-wall coverage and the further elevating of a reputation. Instead, when A-Rod took Ervin Santana deep to open the third inning, there was, well, not much.

The way I see it, the best way for this to work out is for A-Rod to hit all those bonuses this year and next year so they have no impact on 2014.

Rodriguez can earn the $6 million bonuses for hitting 660 HRs, 715 HRs, 755 HRs, then for tying the HR record (currently 756) and then breaking it. According to the CAIRO career projections I ran for Rodriguez his baseline career total for HRs was 699 and if he hit his 80% forecast it would get to 742.

2012_%	PA	AB	H	HR
Baseline	13066	11308	3328	699
65%	13560	11732	3469	724
80%	13826	11962	3565	742

Better than expected health could probably push him closer to that 755-757 range, but I’m not sure expecting a 36-42 year old Rodriguez to start demonstrating better health than the 32-35 version did is particularly realistic.

He now needs 31 HRs over the next two years to get to 661. CAIRO’s baseline had him at 35. If he can do that, then we have to wait another 50 HRs for him to trigger that 715 HR bonus. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that it wouldn’t happen in 2014, and I’d probably bet against it happening in 2015. It may not be going out on the limb to say that it will NEVER happen.

Point being, this is probably pretty low on the Yankees’ list of worries in getting to the $189M payroll Valhalla.

The wording of the last two milestones is interesting. Rodriguez would have to average 21 HRs a year over the rest of his contract (plus yesterday’s) to wind up at 756. If Albert Pujols averages 52 over the same span, he’d end up at 757 HRs. Wouldn’t it be hilarious if Rodriguez tied Barry Bonds in the first game of an Angels series, passed him in the second and then watched Pujols hit three HRs to break his record in the third game? Technically, Rodriguez would have achieved his milestone. But it wouldn’t have been worth anything 24 hours later.

Actually, it wouldn’t be hilarious.

--Posted at 7:42 am by SG / 10 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, April 8, 2012

April 2012 Log 5 Expectations for the Yankees

To determine how much I should panic after an 0-2 start, I put together a log 5 expectation chart for the Yankees in April. Bil James developed the log 5 methodology to assign win probabilities for a baseball game, and it’s basically team 1’s winning percentage plus 0.5 minus team 2’s winning percentage. For winning percentages I’m using the average of my 2012 projection blowout and I’m also incorporating a 0.04 home field advantage.

Date	Game	xW	xL	cxW	cxL	aW	aL	caW	caL	delta
4/6	Yankees @ Rays	0.48	0.52	0.48	0.52	0	1	0	1	-0.48
4/7	Yankees @ Rays	0.48	0.52	0.97	1.03	0	1	0	2	-0.97
4/8	Yankees @ Rays	0.48	0.52	1.45	1.55	0			2	-1.45
4/9	Yankees @ Orioles	0.60	0.40	2.05	1.95	0			2	-2.05
4/10	Yankees @ Orioles	0.60	0.40	2.65	2.35	0			2	-2.65
4/11	Yankees @ Orioles	0.60	0.40	3.26	2.74	0			2	-3.26
4/13	Angels @ Yankees	0.56	0.44	3.82	3.18	0			2	-3.82
4/14	Angels @ Yankees	0.56	0.44	4.38	3.62	0			2	-4.38
4/15	Angels @ Yankees	0.56	0.44	4.95	4.05	0			2	-4.95
4/16	Twins @ Yankees	0.67	0.33	5.62	4.38	0			2	-5.62
4/17	Twins @ Yankees	0.67	0.33	6.29	4.71	0			2	-6.29
4/18	Twins @ Yankees	0.67	0.33	6.96	5.04	0			2	-6.96
4/19	Twins @ Yankees	0.67	0.33	7.64	5.36	0			2	-7.64
4/20	Yankees @ Red Sox	0.48	0.52	8.12	5.88	0			2	-8.12
4/21	Yankees @ Red Sox	0.48	0.52	8.59	6.41	0			2	-8.59
4/22	Yankees @ Red Sox	0.48	0.52	9.07	6.93	0			2	-9.07
4/23	Yankees @ Rangers	0.47	0.53	9.54	7.46	0			2	-9.54
4/24	Yankees @ Rangers	0.47	0.53	10.01	7.99	0			2	-10.01
4/25	Yankees @ Rangers	0.47	0.53	10.48	8.52	0			2	-10.48
4/27	Tigers @ Yankees	0.59	0.41	11.07	8.93	0			2	-11.07
4/28	Tigers @ Yankees	0.59	0.41	11.66	9.34	0			2	-11.66
4/29	Tigers @ Yankees	0.59	0.41	12.25	9.75	0			2	-12.25
4/30	Orioles @ Yankees	0.68	0.32	12.93	10.07	0			2	-12.93

xW: Expected win probability for this game
xL: Expected loss probability for this game
cxW: Cumulative expected win probabilities
cxL: Cumulative expected loss probabilities
aW: Actual wins
aL: Actual losses
caW: Cumulative actual wins
caL: Cumulative actual losses
delta: caW minus cxW. Positive means better than expected

Obviously you can’t win partial games, so it’s better to look at the big picture here. The delta basically shows where the Yankees are relative to where they should be. They’re now one game under their season-opening projection, and can get back within about one-half with a win today.

The Yankees would have to go about 13-10 this month if they want to be on pace to get to their average 94 win projection.

--Posted at 10:01 am by SG / 1 Comment | - (0)

Friday, April 6, 2012

Looking Ahead To 2012 - Team Wrap Up

Opening Day is here, which means we can forget about projections and start complaining about games that count.

We’ve looked at the projections for most of the key players on the Yankees Opening Day roster, with apologies to Chris Stewart.

Russell Martin
Mark Teixeira
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Eduardo Nun-E-z
The Speedy Brett Gardner
Curtis Granderson
Nick Swisher
Andruw Jones and ~~Jesus Montero~~ Raul Ibanez
CC Sabathia
Hiroki Kuroda
Phil Hughes
Michael Pineda
Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia
$36M and a lost draft pick
David Robertson
Booooone Logan and Clay Rapada
Cory Wade and David Phelps
Mariano F’ing Rivera

So now I try to assemble that into a team projection. I’ll show the depth charts I used for the 2012 MLB Projection Blowout with CAIRO.

order	player	position	pa	outs	avg/obp/slg	woba	br	def
1	Derek Jeter	SS	575	392	.286/.345/.384	.325	69	-7
2	Curtis Granderson	CF	625	421	.263/.351/.502	.366	98	0
3	Mark Teixeira	1B	675	447	.263/.359/.493	.368	105	4
4	Robinson Cano	2B	675	460	.303/.352/.504	.368	105	0
5	Alex Rodriguez	3B	450	300	.273/.363/.474	.365	68	0
6	Nick Swisher	RF	625	418	.259/.356/.455	.354	90	4
7	Raul Ibanez	DH	400	279	.266/.329/.458	.340	55	0
8	Russell Martin	C	500	346	.253/.347/.383	.329	60	0
9	Brett Gardner	LF	600	410	.262/.347/.371	.324	76	16
	Starters		5125	3473	.271/.351/.449	.350	726	18
bench	player	position	pa	outs	avg/obp/slg	woba	br	def
	Eduardo Nunez	IF	375	271	.262/.315/.392	.310	44	-6
	Andruw Jones	OF	275	194	.221/.318/.413	.321	34	0
	Eric Chavez	3B	250	182	.240/.296/.356	.288	24	0
	Chris Stewart	C	100	72	.228/.299/.328	.283	9	0
	Francisco Cervelli	C	100	70	.264/.328/.373	.312	11	0
	Ramiro Pena	IF	50	37	.240/.290/.340	.280	5	0
	Brandon Laird	1B/3B	40	29	.247/.292/.407	.304	4	0
	Chris Dickerson	OF	0	0	.243/.321/.369	.308	0	0
	Jack Cust	DH	0	0	.243/.362/.420	.349	0	0
	Russell Branyan	DH	0	0	.240/.330/.458	.341	0	0
	Dewayne Wise	OF	0	0	.243/.286/.406	.298	0	0
	David Adams	2B	0	0	.244/.311/.377	.305	0	0
	Bench		1190	855	.244/.309/.381	.304	131	-6
	Team		6315	4328	.266/.343/.436	.341	857	12

woba: Weighted on-base average
br: Linear weights batting runs
def: Estimated runs saved compared to average using an average of zone rating, DRS, UZR and Totalzone

The biggest area of concern for the position players is probably Alex Rodriguez’s health. A weighted average of his past four years puts him at 459 PA. I’m also not particularly optimistic that Raul Ibanez can hit that projected line, although as half of a platoon it’s more feasible. To a lesser extent the team’s overall health is probably a concern, although in my mind it’s not a huge one. Losing Curtis Granderson or Robinson Cano for an extensive period of time wouldn’t be good since they’re probably the two most valuable position players on the team right now, but you can say that for any team losing one or both of their top two position players.

Regarding Chris Stewart vs. Francisco Cervelli, it’s a clear offensive downgrade. The question is how defense changes things. If we use Cervelli’s 2011 playing time as an estimate for the 2012 backup catchers, you’re looking at something like 137 PA. Let’s round that up to 200 PA in case Russell Martin misses some more time than expected.

200 PA of Cervelli projects to be worth 22 runs. For Stewart, 200 PA projects to be worth about 18 runs. As far as defense, I’m going to ignore pitch framing and blocking and just compare the difference between them in SB/CS. In their careers, that looks like this:

player	inn	sb	cs	sba	cs%
Cervelli	1295	93	23	116	19.8%
Stewart	590	44	28	72	38.9%

Runners may not run as frequently against Stewart if teams have more respect for his arm than they do for Cervelli’s, although runners have attempted 0.12 steals per inning vs. Stewart compared to 0.09 steals per innings vs. Cervelli in their respective careers. I’ll split the difference, which means 42 stolen base attempts over 400 innings. Using the linear weights values for SB/CS gives us this.

player	inn	sb	cs	sba	cs%	rv
Cervelli	400	34	8	42	19.8%	4
Stewart	400	26	16	42	38.9%	-1

rv: linear weights run value of SB/CS.

A positive run value means more runs for the team stealing bases, so the difference between Stewart and Cervelli there effectively nullifies Cervelli’s offensive edge. Whether other factors of catcher defense change things beyond that, I have no idea.

Back to the rest of the team, the Yankees actually project to score more runs than any other team in baseball according to the aggregate projections I ran, although CAIRO sees them about nine runs behind Boston. They may be able to pick up a few more runs if they swap out Ibanez for Russell Branyan and/or Jack Cust at some point.

Most of the defense projects as average, aside from Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher, Brett Gardner and Nun-E. Overall they project about 12 runs better than average.

Of course, 90% of the game is pitching, so how’s that look?

Role	Player	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP
SP1	CC Sabathia	220	220	91	82	19	64	203	3.57	3.24	3.23
SP2	Hiroki Kuroda	190	190	91	80	21	44	126	4.57	4.01	3.92
SP3	Michael Pineda	150	150	82	76	21	53	157	4.37	4.06	3.79
SP4	Ivan Nova	150	150	78	72	16	57	89	4.93	4.50	4.52
SP5	Phil Hughes	150	150	75	73	19	50	114	4.63	4.49	4.26
SP6	Andy Pettitte	110	110	51	47	11	35	76	4.33	4.01	4.00
SP7	Freddy Garcia	40	40	18	17	4	11	23	4.55	4.28	4.28
SP8	Manny Banuelos	20	20	12	11	3	10	12	6.20	5.72	5.43
SP9	Dellin Betances	20	20	13	12	3	12	13	6.51	6.02	5.75
SP10	Adam Warren	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.41	5.00	4.72
Starters	Total	1050	1050	510	469	117	335	813	4.38	4.02	3.98
Role	Player	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP
CL	Mariano Rivera	65	65	25	23	5	16	77	2.63	2.46	2.71
SU	David Robertson	70	70	28	26	5	43	109	2.96	2.77	2.84
SU	Rafael Soriano	60	60	31	29	8	26	69	3.82	3.60	3.64
MR	Boone Logan	50	50	23	20	5	19	46	4.29	3.76	3.71
MR	Cory Wade	40	40	20	18	6	10	28	4.44	4.08	4.31
MR	Clay Rapada	50	50	26	24	5	23	39	4.63	4.35	4.25
LR	David Phelps	50	50	26	24	6	14	24	5.58	5.16	4.88
LR	D.J. Mitchell	23	23	13	12	3	10	10	5.99	5.54	5.26
Relievers	Total	408	408	191	177	43	161	403	4.21	3.90	3.75
Team	Total	1458	1458	701	646	160	496	1216	4.33	3.99	3.91

Assigning innings to the staff was a bit trickier this year. The Yankees have a whole bunch of guys who could pitch in the middle/back of the rotation and injuries/circumstances may have a greater say in that than merit. There’s not a ton of difference in the projections of starters 2-7, although it’s probably fair to wonder how accurate projecting Andy Pettitte will be after a year off. But really, you can juggle the innings around between Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes and Freddy Garcia and probably not see a big difference. CC Sabathia is really the one starter the Yankees can’t afford to lose for any appreciable amount of time.

As far as the pen, it looked better before Joba Chamberlain got hurt. There’s still probably not an end-game you’d take over Mariano Rivera/David Robertson, and for all the crap I spew about the Soriano signing he should be solid, but an injury to either Mo or Robertson suddenly makes it look a bit thin. David Aardsma may be able to pitch at some point, but that’s uncertain.

So, adding this up, this is what CAIRO says.

RS	848
Def	12
RA	701
wpct	.598
p162	97

848 runs scored and 701 runs allowed plus 12 runs saved compared to average puts the Yankees at a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .598, which is equivalent to a 97 win team. CAIRO projected them at 96 in the projection blowout, which is probably a strength of schedule thing.

The other projections I ran say:
Marcel: 92
Oliver: 94
PECOTA: 95
ZiPS: 95
Average: 94

Clay Davenport has them at 93, the official version of Oliver has them at 96 and the official version of PECOTA has them at 94 wins.

I am fairly certain about one thing in baseball this year. The best team in the American League will be the best team in baseball. I’m not quite as certain that the Yankees are that team. They project to be, but Texas has represented the AL in the last two World Series (shamefully, but still…) and if Yu Darvish is a front-line MLB starting pitcher(I think he is), it’s not a stretch to see them as the best team in the league. If the Angels stop dicking around with Vernon Wells and put Mike Trout in their outfield they also have a chance to be the best team in the league, plus they’ll sweep the Yankees in the regular season even if they’re not. Detroit’s defense looks like a problem to me, and while they should score plenty of runs, I have a hard time seeing them as being better than all three of the Rangers, Angels, and Yankees. Of course, we also have the two chief rivals in the AL East to worry about. It wouldn’t take much in the way of good fortune for Boston/Tampa Bay or bad fortune for the Yankees to drop the Yanks into third place.

Still, it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Yankees fail to qualify for the postseason. I suppose losing any of CC Sabathia, Robinson Cano or Curtis Granderson for an extended period of time would be one such scenario.

According to the average team projections I ran their probability of winning at least the second wild card at 82.5%, which is the highest in baseball and 7% ahead of Texas who rank second. CAIRO likes the Yankees even more than that at 83.5%, but that ranks second to Texas’s 84.1%. On average, it took 92 wins to win the first AL wild card and 89 wins to get the second one, but these are the Yankees. Division or bust! Wild cards are for losers!

Since rilkefan asked about how these projections have fared in the past, I did a quick little chart. This compares the average of however many projections I ran that year to what the Yankees actually did.

Year	Projected	Actual	Difference
2005	94	95	1
2006	90	97	7
2007	95	94	-1
2008	95	89	-6
2009	96	103	7
2010	96	95	-1
2011	92	97	5
average	94	95.7	1.7
rms			4.8

So the Yankees have been a bit less than two wins better than projected on average since I began running these in 2005. The methodology has changed, I think for the better, but it’s still limited. But I’m pretty comfortable the Yankees will be one of the best teams in baseball. That’s really all you can ask for as a fan when the season starts, right?

Yay Opening Day!

--Posted at 7:07 am by SG / 28 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, April 5, 2012

Looking Ahead to 2012 - Mariano Rivera

On September 19, 2011, Mariano Rivera recorded the 602nd save of his career, passing Trevor Hoffman to become the all-time MLB leader in saves. Saves are a somewhat flawed stat, but what’s not flawed is Rivera’s performance. He’s a first-ballot Hall of Famer who might be the best reliever ever, although he has surely benefitted from having the workload of a modern closer.

I forget who asked me about whether there were any players that constantly exceeded their projections. I think it was Ugly Johnny D. There’s only one I can think of for sure.

First	Last	Year	age	mIP	mERA	aIP	aERA
Mariano	Rivera	1995	26	40	4.50	67	5.51
Mariano	Rivera	1996	27	77	4.91	108	2.09
Mariano	Rivera	1997	28	88.7	3.65	71.7	1.88
Mariano	Rivera	1998	29	72.7	3.10	61.3	1.91
Mariano	Rivera	1999	30	63	2.86	69	1.83
Mariano	Rivera	2000	31	65.3	3.03	75.7	2.85
Mariano	Rivera	2001	32	69.7	3.36	80.7	2.34
Mariano	Rivera	2002	33	73.3	3.19	46	2.74
Mariano	Rivera	2003	34	56	3.38	70.7	1.66
Mariano	Rivera	2004	35	65	3.05	78.7	1.94
Mariano	Rivera	2005	36	71.3	3.03	78.3	1.38
Mariano	Rivera	2006	37	72	2.63	75	1.80
Mariano	Rivera	2007	38	70.3	2.82	71.3	3.15
Mariano	Rivera	2008	39	68	3.31	70.7	1.40
Mariano	Rivera	2009	40	67.7	3.06	66.3	1.76
Mariano	Rivera	2010	41	65	3.18	60	1.80
Mariano	Rivera	2011	42	61.7	2.77	61.3	1.91
		Total		1147	3.27	1211	2.21

mIP: Marcel projected innings pitched.
mERA: Marcel projected ERA.
aIP: Actual innings pitched
aERA: Actual ERA

Marcel regresses more heavily than any other projection system, but it’s the only one I have going all the way back to 1995 so I’m using that. Rivera’s pitched 65 innings more than projected and allowed 119 fewer earned runs. This is more remarkable because every year where he beats his projection should make his projection better. His best projected ERA was 2.63 in 2006. He’s had an ERA better than 2.63 in 13 of his 16 seasons as a reliever.

So it’s safe to say he’s exceeded his projections.

2011
Despite putting up a 1.80 ERA in 2010, Mo seemed to be a bit less dominant. It continued what appeared to be a downward trend.

Year	IP	BF	ERA	FIP	BABIP	BB/PA	K/PA
2008	70.7	259	1.40	2.10	.218	2.3%	29.7%
2009	66.3	257	1.76	2.99	.248	4.7%	28.0%
2010	60.0	230	1.80	2.93	.222	4.8%	19.6%
2011	61.3	233	1.91	2.37	.275	3.4%	25.8%

I try to make the point as often as I can that things that appear to be trends in baseball are not predictive. Rivera’s walk rate appeared to be trending up while his K rate was trending down, but it didn’t really tell us anything about 2011. FIP says Rivera was better in 2011 than he was in 2009 and 2010, but FIP ignores his BABIP supressing ability. It’s probably also worth mentioning that Rivera actually threw a smidgen harder last year than he had over the prior two season.

Even though projections are always wrong about Mo, I’ll post them anyway.

2012 Projections

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	65	50	19	18	4	12	59	2.63	2.46	2.71	21	2.1
davenport	60	51	19	19	5	10	51	2.85	2.85	3.03	18	1.8
marcel	62	53	21	19	5	15	52	3.06	2.77	3.24	15	1.5
oliver	59	52	21	19	4	11	48	3.19	2.89	2.96	17	1.7
pecota	67	56	20	18	6	12	66	2.71	2.45	2.88	18	1.8
steamer	58	54	24	22	5	15	53	3.74	3.39	3.24	9	0.9
zips	49	44	18	17	4	10	43	3.31	3.12	3.11	10	1.0
average	60	52	20	19	5	12	53	3.07	2.85	3.02	15	1.5
2011	61	47	13	13	3	8	60	1.91	1.91	2.17	22	2.2
LgAvg	61	57	28	26	6	25	52	4.15	3.82	3.82

RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)

For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.

I’ve included his 2011 and the league average as frames of reference. League average is based on role (starters vs. relievers), and is not adjusted for park so unlike with hitters mentally adjust that down a bit.

Yay, CAIRO Yankee bias! Just like every year, the projections expect Mo to take a step back, but even so he still projects as well as just about any reliever in baseball. Here is Rivera’s rank in projected ERA for each system.

cairo: 3
davenport: 2
marcel: 2
oliver: 2
pecota: 8
zips: 35

Boo ZiPS!

CAIRO Percentile Forecasts

%	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
80%	78	52	17	16	3	11	80	2.02	1.87	1.90	30	3.0
65%	71	51	18	17	3	12	69	2.33	2.16	2.28	25	2.5
Baseline	65	50	19	18	4	12	59	2.63	2.46	2.67	21	2.1
35%	52	43	17	16	4	11	44	2.93	2.75	3.04	15	1.5
20%	45	40	16	15	4	11	36	3.23	3.04	3.41	11	1.1

The 65% forecast looks like a typical Rivera year. I don’t think he can pitch that many innings at that rate of performance though.

It’s no secret that Mariano Rivera is my favorite player ever. I don’t know if 2012 will be his last season, although if I had to handicap it I’d say it’s maybe 3-1 that it will be. Because of that, I’m going to just try and enjoy every appearance, every entrance, every warm-up pitch, every broken bat, every nasty cutter that a lefty hitter will flail at aimlessly, every four-seamer inside that freezes a righty and every win that Rivera closes out. Hopefully the final game of the MLB 2012 postseason will be one of those games. It’d be the most appropriate way for Mo to ride off into the sunset, wouldn’t it?

--Posted at 3:54 pm by SG / 24 Comments | - (0)

Looking Ahead to 2012 - Cory Wade and David Phelps

As of right now, the last two spots in the Yankee bullpen will be manned by Cory Wade and David Phelps. Wade was great in 2011 but has had a rough spring. I didn’t get to see a ton of spring training games, but it seemed like Wade pitched in everyone I saw and gave up runs. He ended the spring with a 7.11 ERA and allowed 20 hits in 12.2 innings, walking three and striking out 9. I don’t know if that’s a cause for concern, but we’ll surely find out soon enough. Phelps would probably be better off starting in AAA than sitting in the MLB bullpen, but he’s probably just holding a roster spot until Andy Pettitte or Michael Pineda return.

Wade began 2011 in the Rays organization, but he exercised a mid-June opt-out to sign with the Yankees. Wade had a nice debut season in 2008 but got injured in 2009 and spent 2010 trying to recover in the Dodgers’ minor league system. Wade gave the Yankees 39.2 great innings, putting up a 2.04 ERA. He’s got a career ERA of 2.86 in 138.2 MLB innings.

Phelps was drafted by the Yankees in the 14th round of the 2008 MLB draft out of Notre Dame. Here are his minor league stats.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	HBP	BF	BB/BF	K/BF
2008	21	Staten Island	NYPL	A-	8	2	2.72	15	15	72.7	67	28	22	4	18	52	1	294	6.5%	17.7%
2009	22	Charleston	SALL	A	10	3	2.80	19	19	112.7	117	48	35	9	25	90	4	465	6.2%	19.4%
2009	22	Tampa	FLOR	A+	3	1	1.17	7	7	38.3	34	9	5	1	6	32	0	151	4.0%	21.2%
2010	23	Trenton	EL	AA	6	0	2.04	14	14	88.3	63	21	20	2	23	84	2	342	7.3%	24.6%
2010	23	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre	IL	AAA	4	2	3.07	12	11	70.3	76	31	24	4	13	57	1	297	4.7%	19.2%
2011	24	Yankees	GULF	Rk	1	1	0.00	2	2	7.0	4	2	0	0	1	5	0	28	3.6%	17.9%
2011	24	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre	IL	AAA	6	6	3.19	18	18	107.3	115	42	38	11	26	90	4	449	6.7%	20.0%
				AAA	10	8	3.14	30	29	177.7	191	73	62	15	39	147	5	746	5.9%	19.7%

He’s worked his way up through the system over the last four seasons and had a 2.61 ERA in 496.2 innings. He’s actually got a lower walk rate in AAA than he had everywhere else, without losing much of the Ks.

He throws his four-seam fastball in the low to mid 90s and according to scouting reports also has a two-seamer and a good curve. He also throws a changeup and slider, but they aren’t considered particularly good right now. He also grades well in control and has been a groundball pitcher. Phelps had a great spring, throwing 17.1 innings with a 2.08 ERA, walking four and striking out 14. He also impressed several scouts according to this article by Joel Sherman:

One Yankees player getting some buzz among scouts is David Phelps, who on Tuesday night against Boston continued his good vibrations by striking out five of the 10 Red Sox he has faced.

Both the Yankees and a few scouts noted to me that Phelps has ticked his fastball up to the 92-93 mph range. And a particularly impressed scout said that has raised his profile because the righty already had good aptitude and competitiveness on the mound.

2012 Projections - Wade

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	43	43	21	20	6	11	30	4.44	4.08	4.31	5	0.5
davenport	55	54	27	27	7	13	39	4.42	4.42	4.01	7	0.7
marcel	45	42	19	17	5	14	35	3.80	3.40	3.89	7	0.7
oliver	56	58	28	25	7	14	39	4.57	4.09	4.05	8	0.8
pecota	38	37	18	16	5	11	28	4.31	3.86	4.16	4	0.4
steamer	18	19	10	9	2	5	12	4.91	4.39	4.35	1	0.1
zips	57	62	31	29	8	13	37	4.92	4.61	4.37	2	0.2
average	45	45	22	20	6	12	32	4.48	4.12	4.16	5	0.5
2011	39	33	10	9	5	8	30	2.30	2.07	3.74	17	1.7
LgAvg	39	36	18	17	4	16	33	4.15	3.82	3.82

2012 Projections - Phelps

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	152	185	94	87	23	50	88	5.58	5.16	4.88	0	0.0
oliver	143	161	78	72	18	41	96	4.92	4.54	4.36	11	1.1
pecota	37	43	23	21	5	14	23	5.59	5.16	4.85	0	0.0
zips	122	148	78	73	18	39	73	5.77	5.40	4.78	-2	-0.2
average	113	134	68	63	16	36	70	5.43	5	4.73	2	0.2

For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.

The projections expect Wade to take a step back, which we should also expect. He still projects as a better than replacement level middle relief arm, which is a useful thing to have.

Phelps’s projections are as a starter, and they’re not pretty. Oliver likes him more than the other systems, which is encouraging.

CAIRO Percentile Forecasts - Wade

%	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
80%	61	52	24	21	5	11	50	3.48	3.16	3.13	14	1.4
65%	52	48	23	21	6	12	40	3.96	3.62	3.72	9	0.9
Baseline	43	43	21	20	6	11	30	4.44	4.08	4.30	5	0.5
35%	35	37	19	18	6	10	22	4.92	4.54	4.87	2	0.2
20%	30	35	18	17	6	10	17	5.40	5.00	5.43	0	0.0

CAIRO Percentile Forecasts - Phelps

If I make a Phelps a reliever instead of a starter in CAIRO, here are how his percentile forecasts look.

%	G	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	HBP	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
80%	76	4	5	84	82	40	37	9	23	1	63	4.27	3.92	3.71	8	0.8
65%	70	4	5	77	80	41	38	10	24	2	54	4.76	4.39	4.24	4	0.4
Baseline	64	3	5	70	77	41	38	10	24	3	45	5.25	4.86	4.78	-1	-0.1
35%	51	2	4	56	65	36	33	10	21	3	34	5.74	5.33	5.31	-4	-0.4
20%	45	2	3	49	60	34	32	10	20	3	27	6.23	5.79	5.85	-6	-0.6

Still not great, but translating minor league performance is tricky so it’s certainly possible Phelps is better than he’s projected to be.

I like Cory Wade, and hope his spring training was just a fluke. He doesn’t throw hard, but I like the fact that he’s not a typical fastball/slider reliever. He mixes his fastball, curveball and changeup well with good command. He uses his secondary pitches a lot (curve 26.7% of the time in his career, changeup 18.8% in his career, 26.0% last year). Interestingly enough, even though lefties have hit him slightly better than righties in his career (.236/.274/.368 vs..206/.271/.347) he’s got better peripherals against them.

Split	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	BB/BF	K/BF	FIP	BABIP
vs RHB	318	291	60	10	2	9	23	54	7.2%	17.0%	4.30	.304
vs LHB	235	220	52	7	2	6	10	45	4.3%	19.1%	3.61	.387

I’ve never really done anything to confirm it, but when I’ve looked at pitcher platoon splits I’ve noticed that BABIP against tends to be a big part of the reason for variation in them. So we shouldn’t necessarily think Wade’s BABIP against lefties is solely due to bad luck and will regress all that much. But I do think the BB and K rates are evidence he can pitch to lefties, which makes him a good option to work in the middle of a game where the starter gets knocked out early.

Back to Phelps, I’d love to see him pitch well in relief, if only because it would make for the fun debate about whether or not he’s a starter or a reliever.

Wade’s and Phelps’s fortunes probably aren’t crucial to the Yankees’ success in 2012, but circumstances could change that. If that happens, I think they’ll be up for it.

One more post to go before the team wrap-up. See if you can guess who it will be.

--Posted at 9:49 am by SG / 52 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Yankees Make a Bunch of Moves, Some of Which Don’t Make Sense

Sometimes no activity is better than bad activity.

Yankees.com: Yanks add catcher Stewart, option Cervelli

TAMPA, Fla.—The Yankees completed a deal on Wednesday to address their organizational catching depth, acquiring veteran Chris Stewart from the Giants in exchange for right-hander George Kontos.

Because Stewart is out of Minor League options, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said that the 30-year-old right-handed hitter will be on the Opening Day roster as the backup catcher, with a stunned Francisco Cervelli being optioned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Kontos was behind a lot pitchers on the Yankees’ depth chart so I can see why he’d be expendable. I just don’t see how adding a backup catcher who’s worse than the backup catcher that they already had makes the team better.

CAIRO has Cervelli projected to hit .264/.332/.373 with a wOBA of .315. It projects Stewart to hit .233/.311/.343 with a wOBA of .295. Over 250 PA Cervelli would project to be worth about 27 runs and Stewart would project to be worth 23. I suppose the defensive difference between the two could make them effectively equivalent, but it still strikes me as a move that accomplishes nothing and cost the team some depth.

MLB Trade Rumors: Yankees Sign Ramon Ortiz

The Yankees signed right-hander Ramon Ortiz, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets. It’s a minor league deal, Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger tweets. The Giants recently released the 39-year-old Praver/Shapiro client.

Whatever. Shouldn’t have any significance.

Lohud: As deadline passes, Yankees roster is finalized

David Phelps named long reliever

I’d be more annoyed about having Phelps rotting in the bullpen if I thought it was a long-term thing, but it shouldn’t be. At some point Andy Pettitte or Michael Pineda should take that roster spot and Phelps can return to starting in AAA.

Clay Rapada named second lefty

It’s official.

Chris Stewart named backup catcher

See above.

Justin Maxwell designated for assignment

Maxwell had a pretty good spring, but I don’t think he had much use on this team.

Bill Hall given his release

I figured Hall was a longshot to make the team, and Eduardo Nunez’s hot hitting cemented that.

--Posted at 5:55 pm by SG / 13 Comments | - (0)

Looking Ahead to 2012 - Boone Logan and Clay Rapada

Brian Cashman eschewed signing a lefty reliever to throw off flat ground, and instead took a flier on Clay Rapada and Cesar Cabral. Cabral got hurt when it looked like he had a good chance to make the team, which helps the Yankees keep him in the organization as a Rule 5 pick. It also opened the door for Rapada to join Boone Logan as the lefties in the 2012 Yankee bullpen.

Logan was an extra piece in the trade that sent Javier Vazquez to the Yankees for Melky Cabrera, Arodys Vizcaino and Mike Dunn. The Yankees have gotten 81 mostly good innings out of Logan, with the occasional hiccups. The hiccups make a lot of Yankee fans not appreciate Logan as much as they probably should.

season	split	ip	bf	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	hbp	so
2010&2011	vs L	49.7	209	42	7	2	4	17	5	64
2010&2011	vs R	32.0	145	35	9	0	3	16	0	20
season	split	bb/bf	k/bf	babip	fip	xfip	ld%	gb%	fb%	iffb%
2010&2011	vs L	10.5%	30.6%	.319	2.90	3.46	21.1%	52.8%	45.5%	5.7%
2010&2011	vs R	11.0%	13.8%	.302	4.57	4.96	16.5%	40.4%	33.0%	5.5%

Logan’s struck out close to one-third of every left-handed hitter he’s faced as a Yankee. He probably walks more hitters than you’d like to see, and his peripherals vs. righties haven’t been good, but he’s been a useful part of the bullpen so far as a Yankee.

Clay Rapada has pitched for four organizations, but for some reason I thought he’d pitched for about 20. He spent the 2011 with the Orioles, splitting time between AAA and MLB. He had a career ERA of 5.13, but era for a lefty specialist is pretty much useless. Rapada does one thing very well, and that’s get left-handed hitters out. In his career, lefties have hit .153/.252/.220 and righties have hit .359/.474/.692 against him. So lefties have hit like him like Raul Ibanez will hit this year, and righties have hit him like Jesus Montero will hit this year.

He’s walked 11.0% and struck out 26.5% of the 136 LHB he’s faced in his time in MLB, compared to walking 17.9% and striking out 8.4% of the 95 RHB he’s faced. Over the last two seasons those numbers are even more pronounced at 8.1%/29.7% and 23.5%/2.9%. He can be a useful tactical option, but he really should absolutely NEVER face a RHB.

2012 Projections - Logan

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	43	45	21	18	4	17	41	4.29	3.76	3.71	6	0.6
davenport	55	49	24	24	5	21	48	3.93	3.93	3.70	10	1.0
marcel	50	48	23	20	5	18	45	4.14	3.60	3.70	6	0.6
oliver	51	49	26	23	4	19	43	4.68	4.07	3.58	8	0.8
pecota	54	55	31	27	6	21	49	5.09	4.43	3.92	1	0.1
steamer	50	46	25	21	5	21	47	4.40	3.83	3.81	4	0.4
zips	48	46	22	21	5	17	48	4.10	3.91	3.75	6	0.6
average	50	48	24	22	5	19	46	4.38	3.93	3.74	6	0.6
2011	41	43	20	16	4	13	46	4.37	3.50	3.27	7	0.7
LgAvg	41	38	19	17	4	17	35	4.15	3.82	3.82

2012 Projections - Rapada

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	30	30	15	14	3	14	23	4.63	4.35	4.25	2	0.2
davenport	35	34	18	18	4	14	28	4.63	4.63	4.17	3	0.3
marcel	34	32	17	16	4	13	28	4.50	4.24	4.12	3	0.3
oliver	48	46	23	22	4	20	38	4.43	4.17	3.84	7	0.7
pecota	22	21	10	10	2	10	19	4.31	4.06	3.92	2	0.2
steamer	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.97	4.68	4.44	0	0.0
zips	43	43	22	21	4	19	35	4.60	4.40	4.18	3	0.3
average	30	30	15	15	3	13	24	4.58	4.36	4.13	3	0.3
2011	16	14	11	11	3	7	18	6.15	6.15	4.49	-2	-0.2
LgAvg	16	15	7	7	2	6	14	4.15	3.82	3.82

For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.

I’ve included their 2011s and the league average as frames of reference. League average is based on role (starters vs. relievers), and is not adjusted for park so unlike with hitters mentally adjust that down a bit.

You can’t really use a straight RA/ERA/FIP whatever model to value Rapada. Basically, his value will be tied into win expectancy. He’ll be asked to come in and retire Carlos Pena or David Ortiz or someone of that ilk, probably in a crucial situation. That’s also true to a certain extent for Logan, although he can probably pitch to a RHB sandwiched between a couple of lefties so his RA/ERA may be more reflective of his value.

CAIRO Percentile Forecasts - Logan

%	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
80%	60	53	22	19	3	18	67	3.34	2.88	2.47	14	1.4
65%	52	50	22	19	4	18	53	3.82	3.32	3.05	10	1.0
Baseline	43	45	21	18	4	17	41	4.29	3.76	3.62	6	0.6
35%	35	38	18	16	4	15	30	4.76	4.21	4.18	3	0.3
20%	30	36	18	16	4	15	24	5.23	4.65	4.73	1	0.1

CAIRO Percentile Forecasts - Rapada

%	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
80%	36	29	14	13	2	12	34	3.44	3.20	2.87	8	0.8
65%	33	30	15	14	2	13	28	4.03	3.78	3.57	5	0.5
Baseline	30	30	15	14	3	14	23	4.63	4.35	4.26	2	0.2
35%	24	26	14	13	3	12	17	5.22	4.92	4.93	1	0.1
20%	21	25	13	13	3	12	13	5.81	5.50	5.58	-1	-0.1

I don’t know how useful these are, but I threw them up here anyway. The fewer innings a pitcher will pitch, the larger the range of likely outcomes.

The Yankees have right-handed relievers who can get lefties out very well, so it’s not likely the Yankees will be forced to use either Logan or Rapada late in games. They’ll probably just be asked to come in when a starter’s struggling and a lefty’s up. Their performance in those situations could have a few games of influence on the Yankees’ final W/L record. That may be a good thing, or a bad thing.

--Posted at 5:29 pm by SG / 8 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout - ZiPS Edition

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections are generally considered one of the best around. Dan does a lot of work with his own projected standings and other things at ESPN. You can see his AL and NL projections there if you’re an Insider.

Projecting the American League

Projecting the National League

Since I’m not an insider, I used Dan’s projectons to run my own standings. As with PECOTA, these should be considered unofficial.

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL East	NYA	95	67	875	743	47.8%	22.6%	12.8%	83.2%	85 - 105
AL East	TAM	93	69	807	687	28.3%	27.8%	15.1%	71.2%	83 - 103
AL East	BOS	91	71	863	755	22.5%	24.9%	15.7%	63.1%	81 - 101
AL East	TOR	80	82	818	821	1.4%	3.3%	4.6%	9.2%	70 - 90
AL East	BAL	69	93	751	870	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	59 - 79
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL Central	DET	84	78	812	776	47.4%	0.8%	9.2%	57.4%	74 - 94
AL Central	CLE	83	79	792	768	37.2%	0.8%	7.0%	44.9%	73 - 93
AL Central	KC	76	86	731	781	7.5%	0.0%	1.1%	8.6%	66 - 86
AL Central	CHA	74	88	730	827	4.9%	0.0%	1.0%	5.8%	64 - 84
AL Central	MIN	72	90	762	846	3.1%	0.1%	0.5%	3.7%	62 - 82
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL West	LAA	92	70	772	670	53.6%	9.0%	15.0%	77.7%	82 - 102
AL West	TEX	91	71	833	727	45.1%	10.2%	17.1%	72.3%	81 - 101
AL West	SEA	74	88	705	768	1.2%	0.4%	0.8%	2.4%	64 - 84
AL West	OAK	73	89	722	791	0.2%	0.2%	0.5%	0.9%	63 - 83

AL	WC1	94
AL	WC2	91

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL East	PHI	91	71	702	622	50.7%	15.5%	9.4%	75.6%	81 - 101
NL East	ATL	88	74	712	665	26.9%	17.9%	10.0%	54.7%	78 - 98
NL East	FLA	84	78	712	680	13.3%	11.6%	9.1%	33.9%	74 - 94
NL East	WAS	82	80	654	646	8.7%	8.0%	7.5%	24.1%	72 - 92
NL East	NYN	72	90	679	762	0.5%	0.4%	0.9%	1.7%	62 - 82
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL Central	CIN	86	76	719	678	34.6%	9.0%	11.5%	55.1%	76 - 96
NL Central	STL	86	76	719	673	31.7%	10.1%	10.5%	52.4%	76 - 96
NL Central	MIL	86	76	709	655	30.3%	9.0%	12.1%	51.5%	76 - 96
NL Central	PIT	75	87	685	736	3.1%	1.0%	2.0%	6.2%	65 - 85
NL Central	CHN	70	92	657	766	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	0.9%	60 - 80
NL Central	HOU	63	99	602	759	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	53 - 73
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL West	SF	86	76	689	652	42.5%	5.7%	10.2%	58.4%	76 - 96
NL West	ARI	86	76	693	660	39.6%	6.6%	10.2%	56.4%	76 - 96
NL West	COL	80	82	757	767	12.2%	3.1%	4.1%	19.4%	70 - 90
NL West	SD	76	86	637	679	5.0%	1.5%	2.3%	8.8%	66 - 86
NL West	LAN	72	90	624	697	0.7%	0.4%	0.4%	1.5%	62 - 82

NL	WC1	90
NL	WC2	87

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
PS%: Total percentage team qualified for the postseason (DIV + WC1 + WC2)
W 1 Std: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 8:32 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout - Oliver Edition

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL East	NYA	94	68	801	683	56.0%	22.7%	7.6%	86.4%	84 - 104
AL East	BOS	90	72	798	719	26.6%	27.3%	12.6%	66.5%	80 - 100
AL East	TAM	86	76	749	701	11.3%	18.2%	9.3%	38.7%	76 - 96
AL East	TOR	83	79	751	733	6.1%	10.0%	9.8%	25.9%	73 - 93
AL East	BAL	71	91	684	781	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%	0.7%	61 - 81
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL Central	DET	88	74	760	696	67.2%	1.5%	14.1%	82.7%	78 - 98
AL Central	CHA	79	83	695	711	13.0%	2.4%	5.5%	20.9%	69 - 89
AL Central	CLE	79	83	753	771	12.9%	1.9%	5.9%	20.7%	69 - 89
AL Central	KC	76	86	705	754	4.7%	0.7%	2.4%	7.7%	66 - 86
AL Central	MIN	73	89	716	793	2.2%	0.4%	1.4%	3.9%	63 - 83
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL West	LAA	88	74	730	668	52.4%	5.7%	14.5%	72.5%	78 - 98
AL West	TEX	87	75	762	706	42.3%	7.2%	12.2%	61.8%	77 - 97
AL West	SEA	77	85	686	724	3.9%	1.2%	3.7%	8.7%	67 - 87
AL West	OAK	74	88	707	767	1.5%	0.7%	1.3%	3.5%	64 - 84

AL	WC1	91
AL	WC2	88

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL East	ATL	89	73	687	625	37.8%	17.0%	10.0%	64.8%	79 - 99
NL East	MIA	87	75	677	627	28.3%	13.3%	9.9%	51.5%	77 - 97
NL East	PHI	86	76	680	632	21.5%	14.6%	11.2%	47.3%	76 - 96
NL East	WAS	84	78	667	646	12.3%	11.6%	9.3%	33.2%	74 - 94
NL East	NYN	72	90	654	726	0.1%	0.5%	0.6%	1.1%	62 - 82
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL Central	CIN	91	71	695	615	63.2%	8.3%	10.4%	81.9%	81 - 101
NL Central	STL	86	76	707	666	27.1%	12.3%	10.3%	49.7%	76 - 96
NL Central	MIL	81	81	672	672	8.1%	5.8%	6.5%	20.3%	71 - 91
NL Central	CHN	73	89	646	716	1.4%	0.3%	1.2%	3.0%	63 - 83
NL Central	PIT	70	92	649	748	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	60 - 80
NL Central	HOU	66	96	603	729	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	0.5%	56 - 76
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL West	COL	86	76	708	665	44.2%	5.7%	10.7%	60.6%	76 - 96
NL West	ARI	83	79	665	649	24.3%	4.6%	8.3%	37.2%	73 - 93
NL West	SF	83	79	654	640	25.9%	3.9%	8.0%	37.8%	73 - 93
NL West	LAN	75	87	636	683	3.2%	1.5%	2.6%	7.2%	65 - 85
NL West	SD	74	88	649	702	2.4%	0.5%	1.4%	4.3%	64 - 84

NL	WC1	90
NL	WC2	87

--Posted at 8:30 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout - Marcel Edition

Marcel was developed by Tangotiger of The Book fame.

Although it’s considered the most basic projection system, it is generally as good as any other system since added complexity really hasn’t shown to add all that much accuracy over Marcel, and the principles behind it are solid and should be the basis for any good forecasting system. Marcel tends to regress more heavily towards the mean, so the standings here will be more compressed in the other systems. Marcel does not factor in minor league performance or performances in other leagues, and does not adjust for park. Any player who has not played in MLB will project as average. In Marcel, Tsuyoshi Wada and Yu Darvish have the same projection for example, so keep that in mind as you peruse the standings.

Here’s how it sees things looking in 2012.

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL East	NYA	92	70	800	695	46.3%	21.2%	9.2%	76.7%	82 - 102
AL East	BOS	89	73	801	727	26.7%	23.2%	11.1%	61.1%	79 - 99
AL East	TAM	88	74	754	681	20.6%	20.9%	12.3%	53.8%	78 - 98
AL East	TOR	84	78	753	733	6.5%	11.6%	8.3%	26.3%	74 - 94
AL East	BAL	68	94	682	802	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%	58 - 78
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL Central	DET	84	78	756	723	41.0%	1.5%	9.9%	52.4%	74 - 94
AL Central	CLE	83	79	755	738	33.7%	2.0%	8.4%	44.1%	73 - 93
AL Central	CHA	79	83	697	714	13.1%	2.0%	5.1%	20.2%	69 - 89
AL Central	KC	78	84	708	735	11.0%	1.2%	3.6%	15.7%	68 - 88
AL Central	MIN	70	92	711	818	1.3%	0.2%	0.4%	1.8%	60 - 80
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL West	LAA	87	75	725	671	44.6%	5.7%	13.0%	63.3%	77 - 97
AL West	TEX	87	75	762	703	40.3%	7.1%	11.3%	58.6%	77 - 97
AL West	OAK	80	82	710	715	10.9%	2.2%	5.4%	18.5%	70 - 90
AL West	SEA	77	85	680	721	4.2%	1.0%	2.6%	7.8%	67 - 87

AL	WC1	91
AL	WC2	88

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL East	PHI	90	72	729	651	47.0%	13.3%	9.9%	70.1%	80 - 100
NL East	ATL	88	74	729	668	32.2%	17.5%	11.1%	60.8%	78 - 98
NL East	WAS	85	77	710	681	15.6%	14.0%	8.9%	38.5%	75 - 95
NL East	MIA	80	82	715	727	4.8%	4.9%	7.1%	16.8%	70 - 90
NL East	NYN	74	88	698	759	0.6%	0.9%	1.6%	3.1%	64 - 84
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL Central	CIN	89	73	734	664	54.2%	8.5%	9.8%	72.5%	79 - 99
NL Central	STL	85	77	749	718	25.9%	9.2%	10.5%	45.6%	75 - 95
NL Central	MIL	83	79	714	693	19.1%	9.5%	7.7%	36.3%	73 - 93
NL Central	PIT	72	90	687	772	0.4%	0.5%	0.6%	1.4%	62 - 82
NL Central	CHN	71	91	675	773	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.9%	61 - 81
NL Central	HOU	66	96	638	771	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%	56 - 76
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL West	COL	86	76	746	696	40.9%	6.6%	11.1%	58.6%	76 - 96
NL West	ARI	84	78	704	682	26.1%	6.4%	9.3%	41.8%	74 - 94
NL West	SF	84	78	688	670	27.5%	6.5%	8.9%	42.9%	74 - 94
NL West	LAN	76	86	669	714	3.8%	1.4%	2.0%	7.2%	66 - 86
NL West	SD	74	88	679	737	1.7%	0.7%	1.4%	3.8%	64 - 84

NL	WC1	90
NL	WC2	87

--Posted at 8:15 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)

CAIRO 2012 v1.0 and Final Pre-season MLB Standings Projection

I’ve uploaded the final pre-season 2012 CAIRO projections and projected standings. They can be downloaded here.

cairo_2012_v1.0.zip

Yeah, I know Opening Day was technically last week. Sue me.

Here are the standings and of course, the pie charts. I should be posting more projected standings from other systems later today, so I’ll save the disclaimers and explanations for after that’s all done.

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL East	NYA	96	66	848	713	52.8%	19.6%	11.1%	83.5%	86 - 106
AL East	BOS	91	71	857	751	23.7%	21.0%	16.1%	60.8%	81 - 101
AL East	TAM	91	71	765	667	22.4%	25.7%	14.9%	63.0%	81 - 101
AL East	TOR	79	83	771	793	0.8%	2.4%	3.1%	6.2%	69 - 89
AL East	BAL	70	92	736	838	0.4%	0.1%	0.5%	1.0%	60 - 80
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL Central	DET	87	75	803	741	55.2%	1.3%	10.3%	66.8%	77 - 97
AL Central	CLE	84	78	759	721	36.4%	2.4%	9.3%	48.0%	74 - 94
AL Central	CHA	74	88	699	806	3.0%	0.2%	0.8%	4.0%	64 - 84
AL Central	KC	73	89	682	754	3.6%	0.2%	0.8%	4.6%	63 - 83
AL Central	MIN	71	91	725	815	1.8%	0.0%	0.3%	2.1%	61 - 81
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL West	TEX	93	69	809	685	54.2%	12.7%	17.3%	84.1%	83 - 103
AL West	LAA	92	70	739	640	44.7%	14.3%	14.6%	73.6%	82 - 102
AL West	OAK	74	88	685	753	0.5%	0.3%	0.9%	1.7%	64 - 84
AL West	SEA	73	89	669	742	0.6%	0.0%	0.6%	1.2%	63 - 83

AL	WC1	93
AL	WC2	90

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL East	PHI	91	71	690	610	51.0%	15.1%	9.0%	75.0%	81 - 101
NL East	ATL	86	76	705	664	20.5%	16.4%	10.2%	47.1%	76 - 96
NL East	WAS	85	77	669	632	17.7%	12.8%	9.7%	40.1%	75 - 95
NL East	FLA	83	79	710	694	10.3%	8.6%	7.0%	25.9%	73 - 93
NL East	NYN	74	88	665	737	0.7%	0.8%	0.8%	2.2%	64 - 84
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL Central	STL	89	73	728	654	47.2%	11.1%	9.4%	67.7%	79 - 99
NL Central	MIL	86	76	695	646	29.2%	11.6%	11.8%	52.6%	76 - 96
NL Central	CIN	85	77	707	670	22.7%	10.8%	11.2%	44.8%	75 - 95
NL Central	PIT	71	91	653	743	0.6%	0.3%	1.0%	1.9%	61 - 81
NL Central	CHN	71	91	648	748	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.9%	61 - 81
NL Central	HOU	61	101	584	752	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	51 - 71
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL West	SF	85	77	663	634	36.5%	5.2%	10.2%	51.9%	75 - 95
NL West	ARI	84	78	692	674	33.9%	3.0%	9.2%	46.0%	74 - 94
NL West	COL	82	80	755	750	21.2%	2.9%	6.6%	30.7%	72 - 92
NL West	SD	76	86	635	674	4.1%	0.9%	1.6%	6.6%	66 - 86
NL West	LAN	75	87	622	671	4.3%	0.3%	2.5%	7.1%	65 - 85

NL	WC1	90
NL	WC2	88

--Posted at 7:45 am by SG / 34 Comments | - (0)

Monday, April 2, 2012

Looking Ahead to 2012 - Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia

Ivan Nova

Time to double up on these with Opening Day fast approaching. I’m hoping to have my projected standings up tomorrow, so today we’ll round out the rest of the opening day rotation by looking at Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia.

After a decent showing in his 2010 MLB debut, albeit one with shaky peripherals, Ivan Nova earned a spot in the Yankee rotation to start 2011. Nova’s main calling card as a prospect was his fastball velocity, but until 2009 he hadn’t really shown the type of performance you’d like to see in a pitching prospect.

Because of that track record, his projections heading into the season weren’t pretty.

projecton	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR	BABIP
cairo	22	116	130	72	67	15	49	72	5.59	5.20	5.04	5	0.5	.303
marcel	17	71	69	35	32	7	26	52	4.44	4.06	4.20	12	1.2	.287
oliver	37	155	170	90	82	18	69	97	5.24	4.79	4.80	13	1.3	.302
pecota	20	119	136	75	69	15	53	66	5.68	5.23	5.19	4	0.4	.303
zips	28	150	170	94	88	19	69	88	5.65	5.29	5.18	5	0.5	.304
average*	25	122	135	73	68	15	53	75	5.40	4.99	4.97	8	0.8	.301
2010	33	187	179	72	67	14	65	141	3.47	3.22	3.74	52	5.2	.291
2011	27	159	155	70	64	13	57	95	3.96	3.62	4.14	35	3.5	.279

RA/ERA: Runs/Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher(park and role-adjusted, using RA)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play

The 2010 line includes his minor league performance so ignore that RSAR/WAR. As you can see Nova exceeded just about every projection in 2011.

2011
So was Nova lucky? Probably a bit, but we do have some evidence of genuine development. For the majority of pitchers, their effectiveness ties directly into their command of the strike zone. It’s the reason Mariano Rivera has been the best closer of all time, for example. You can look at the percentage of batters a pitcher walks and strikes out (and or their K/BB ratio) as a proxy for strike zone command. But don’t just take my word for it.

The fear with Nova, and the primary reason he didn’t get much respect among more statistically inclined analysts was that he had walked about 7.7% of the batters he’d faced in the minors while striking out 16.8%, a K/BB ratio of 2.19. You can be a useful pitcher in MLB with a K/BB ratio like that in MLB, but translating that from the minors doesn’t give you much of a margin of error.

In 2011, Nova walked 8.1% of the batters he faced and struck out 13.9%. His K/BB ratio of 1.72 was less than stellar, and although he had a decent FIP of 4.01 it was buoyed by a lower than average HR/FB rate, a particularly impressive achievement in DNYS.

That’s not to say it’s all doom and gloom for Nova. Even his xFIP, which corrects for HR/FB rate, was a more than respectable 4.16, which is fine for a middle of the rotation guy. In addition to that, if we go a little deeper into his numbers we can find evidence of the aforementioned genuine development. In this case it’s in his splits through May 28, and his splits afterwards. Why that date? That’s the date his slider appeared to become another weapon.

dates	ip	bf	h	hr	bb	k	ra	era	fip	xfip
4/4-5/28	54	246	62	4	24	27	5.50	4.67	4.37	4.96
6/3-9/25	105	431	93	9	33	68	3.17	3.09	3.83	4.01

Dates	fb%	gb%	ld%	bb/bf	k/bf	babip	hr/fb
4/4-5/28	28.4%	54.2%	17.4%	9.8%	11.0%	.312	7.4%
6/3-9/25	29.3%	51.5%	19.1%	7.7%	15.8%	.267	9.5%

bf: batters faced
fip: Fielding independent pitching
xfip: Expected fip (uses league average hr/fb rate instead of actual hr)
fb% Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
gb% Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
ld% Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
bb/bf: walks per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
babip: batting average on balls in play

Nova’s ERA/RA was still a bit better than you’d expect from his peripherals post-slider, but they support the notion that Nova can be a capable starting pitcher in MLB. We always want to be cautious about drawing large meaning from small samples, but changes in walk rate and strikeout rate stabilize more quickly than changes in most other stats, for both pitchers and hitters.

So what about 2012?

2012 Projections

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	129	135	71	65	15	52	80	4.93	4.50	4.52	17	1.7
davenport	132	131	62	61	13	50	79	4.24	4.17	4.33	27	2.7
marcel	144	138	65	59	12	49	98	4.06	3.69	3.85	27	2.7
oliver	170	178	89	81	16	63	103	4.74	4.30	4.23	21	2.1
pecota	156	177	96	87	18	62	90	5.53	5.03	4.64	8	0.8
steamer	165	174	93	85	15	68	102	5.08	4.61	4.27	12	1.2
zips	178	189	94	88	20	60	111	4.74	4.44	4.33	20	2.0
average	153	160	81	75	15	58	95	4.76	4.39	4.31	19	1.9
2011	165	163	74	68	13	57	98	4.03	3.71	3.98	35	3.5

For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.

The consensus now is that Nova can be a bit better than league average, particularly if you give him a full starter’s workload. That’s a big step up from his projections entering last year and that’s probably a solid #3 in an average MLB rotation, at a cost-controlled salary. I think his 16-4 record in 2011 may lead the MSM and some fans to overrate him, but that’s not his fault. You’d have to imagine the Yankees hope to see him more like a #5 should they get a healthy and effective Phil Hughes and Michael Pineda this year, but I don’t really like the odds of both of those things happening right now.

CAIRO Percentile Forecasts

%	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
80%	194	186	94	85	16	67	133	4.34	3.94	3.84	38	3.8
65%	168	168	87	79	16	62	110	4.64	4.22	4.18	27	2.7
Baseline	129	135	71	65	15	52	80	4.93	4.50	4.51	17	1.7
35%	103	113	60	55	13	44	60	5.22	4.78	4.84	10	1.0
20%	90	103	55	51	13	41	50	5.52	5.06	5.17	6	0.6

CAIRO is actually less sanguine on Nova than the average projection, but that 65% forecast is probably about what you’d expect if he were to repeat his 2011 with a bit less of the good fortune in HR/FB rate and BABIP.

I’d probably be more worried about Nova’s 6.86 spring training ERA if he hadn’t walked one hitter and struck out 14 of them. But since he has, I’m not. He may end up out of the rotation if everyone is healthy and effective this year, but that never really happens.

Freddy Garcia

I have to admit I expected nothing out of either Freddy Garcia or Bartolo Colon last year. At this point it seems like Garcia is superfluous, but at the time he was signed the Yankee rotation was CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Ivan Nova and 2011 Phil Hughes. That the Yankees subsequently added three pitchers who are probably better options for the rotation than Garcia isn’t his fault, and I’ve seen no evidence that he hasn’t acted professionally even though his short and long-term role on the Yankees has been in doubt. With Michael Pineda out with tendinitis and Andy Pettitte working his way back from retirement, Garcia will open the year in the rotation.

2010 & 2011 Projections

projecton	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR	BABIP
cairo	31	31	32	17	16	4	11	22	4.94	4.65	4.62	2	0.2	.292
marcel	25	144	152	76	72	18	44	91	4.75	4.50	4.54	12	1.2	.291
oliver	18	101	111	63	60	15	29	62	5.64	5.35	4.76	-2	-0.2	.294
pecota	20	109	119	63	58	17	33	68	5.23	4.81	4.97	3	0.3	.291
zips	15	82	90	47	44	12	23	51	5.16	4.83	4.77	3	0.3	.295
average*	22	93	101	53	50	13	28	59	5.14	4.82	4.75	4	0.4	.292
2010	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	#DIV/0!	####	######	#####	#####	#####
2011	25	141	146	63	59	16	44	93	4.03	3.77	4.29	23	2.3	.292

I guess the most amazing thing is going from not pitching at all in 2010 to giving the team 141 strong innings. His FIP is probably a better indicator of how effective Garcia actually was, but he certainly blew away every projection.

2011
Garcia doesn’t throw had anymore. He came up throwing in the mid-90s but injuries have him sitting around 87 mph with his fastball, which has forced him to become more reliant on his secondary stuff. In some ways he was like a less-effective Mike Mussina circa 2008. Garcia increased his use of his split finger fastball last year, including one that was used in a physics lecture in Australia about how to curve a baseball. He had a higher than typical percentage of runners left on base and like Nova allowed a few less HRs per fly ball than an average pitcher. Throw in another year of aging and it’s probably a safe bet he won’t be quite as effective as last year, but here’s what the projections say.

2012 Projections

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	102	112	51	48	12	30	64	4.55	4.28	4.28	17	1.7
davenport	56	60	32	31	8	17	31	5.12	4.96	4.73	6	0.6
marcel	149	156	72	67	17	46	97	4.36	4.06	4.19	23	2.3
oliver	136	150	73	68	16	39	79	4.84	4.50	4.31	14	1.4
pecota	126	140	72	67	17	37	83	5.13	4.78	4.40	7	0.7
steamer	113	121	61	57	15	30	69	4.88	4.54	4.41	11	1.1
zips	128	143	74	69	18	40	75	5.20	4.85	4.64	8	0.8
average	116	126	63	59	15	34	71	4.87	4.57	4.42	12	1.2
2011	146	152	63	59	16	45	96	3.88	3.63	4.09	23	2.3
LgAvg	146	148	75	68	17	46	107	4.60	4.21	4.21

Not surprising that Garcia’s expected to drop across the board, although Davenport, PECOTA and ZiPS are expecting a major fall off. Still, as the ostensible seventh starter on the team you could do worse.

CAIRO Percentile Forecasts

%	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
80%	152	152	66	62	13	36	108	3.91	3.66	3.55	37	3.7
65%	132	138	62	58	14	35	88	4.23	3.97	3.93	27	2.7
Baseline	102	112	51	48	12	30	64	4.55	4.28	4.30	17	1.7
35%	81	94	44	41	11	26	48	4.86	4.59	4.67	11	1.1
20%	71	86	41	39	11	24	39	5.18	4.89	5.03	7	0.7

I think in this case the 35% forecast is probably closer to how Garcia will perform and how often he’ll pitch. There’s a lot of uncertainty with Andy Pettitte and Michael Pineda that could end up with the Yankees needing him more often than that though, and I’m not sure counting on a full season out of Phil Hughes is wise yet. Garcia could still be expendable if the Yankees feel his innings can be mostly replaced by some combination of Adam Warren, David Phelps, D.J. Mitchell, Dellin Betances or Manny Banuelos, but they probably have some time to determine that.

The Yankees’ postseason hopes if they should make it by some miracle may not be affected all that much by Nova and Garcia. You’d have to think the postseason rotation would contain some combination of CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, Michael Pineda and/or Andy Pettitte. But you do have to get there first, and Nova and Garcia can be big parts of that.

--Posted at 6:58 am by SG / 47 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Sporting News: Yankees sign Jack Cust to minor league contract

The New York Yankees have signed free-agent DH/outfielder Jack Cust to a minor league deal, according to WFAN.

Cust was released by the Houston Astros on Tuesday after he went 1-for-25 with eight strikeouts in Grapefruit League play this spring. This past offseason, the Astros signed him to a one-year deal with a team option for 2013.

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Cust is 33, which surprised me. I figured he was like 50. Here are his CAIRO projections as a Yankee.

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAR
80%	362	303	49	84	19	1	17	49	3	0	66	95	3	4	.277	.426	.516	.418	65	18
65%	332	278	42	73	15	1	14	41	2	0	57	93	4	3	.261	.399	.471	.388	52	9
Baseline	302	253	35	62	12	0	11	35	1	1	48	89	4	2	.246	.372	.427	.358	41	2
35%	272	228	29	52	9	0	8	28	1	1	40	84	5	1	.230	.345	.382	.327	31	-4
20%	242	202	23	43	7	0	6	23	0	1	33	79	5	0	.215	.318	.338	.297	23	-8

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

The baseline projection is effectively replacement level for a DH, but the OBP is intriguing. His platoon split projections also indicate some possible upside.

split	pa	ab	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	so	hbp	gdp	avg	obp	slg	woba
vs. LHP	95	81	18	3	0	3	13	29	1	1	.226	.345	.393	.323
Vs. RHP	275	229	58	12	0	11	43	80	2	4	.253	.381	.438	.361
Overall	370	310	76	15	0	13	56	109	2	5	.246	.372	.427	.351

In terms of offense between Cust and Raul Iganez vs. LHP, the difference is minimal.

player	pa	ab	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	so	hbp	gdp	avg	obp	slg	woba	outs	br
Cust vs. RHP	400	333	84	18	1	16	62	116	2	6	.253	.381	.438	.361	255	57
Ibanez vs. RHP	400	359	98	23	2	16	37	65	1	10	.272	.342	.470	.348	271	56

However, the key thing here is that over 400 PA Cust projects to make 16 fewer outs. Those outs can theoretically go to better hitters.

He can’t run the bases at all, and he’s a disaster defensively, but he’s a nice option to have sitting around in the event that Ibanez get DFA’d if Russell Branyan’s not an option.

--Posted at 8:55 am by SG / 58 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Looking Ahead to 2012 - Michael Pineda

In a move that came out of nowhere, the Yankees traded Jesus Montero, their top prospect, for Michael Pineda. Pineda had a very good rookie year for Seattle in 2011, but getting him came at a heavy price. It’ll probably take at least five years to see if the trade was worth it, but it’s already been analyzed and judged heavily and will surely continue to be.

2011
Pineda wasn’t a lock to make the Mariners’ rotation out of spring training last year, but he made the team thanks to a good spring training. His first half/second half splits have been beaten to death, but I’ll re-post this table that I posted right after the trade.

pitcher	fb%	gb%	ld%	bb/bf	k/bf	babip	hr/fb	fip	xfip
A	49.1%	31.4%	19.5%	7.9%	24.7%	.249	5.9%	3.01	3.98
B	37.8%	44.2%	18.0%	7.9%	25.1%	.296	15.4%	4.01	3.42

fb% Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
gb% Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
ld% Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
bb/bf: walks per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
babip: batting average on balls in play
fip: Fielding independent pitching
xfip: Expected fip (uses league average hr/fb rate instead of actual hr)

A is Pineda through July 4, and B is Pineda afterwards.

If you go by ERA, Pineda was much worse in the second half (2.58 through July 4, 5.71 after). However, there’s a lot of noise in ERA that isn’t necessarily related to the pitcher’s performance. Every peripheral stat of Pineda’s except for his HR/FB rate and his BABIP was better in the second half, and those are probably the two most volatile stats a pitcher can have.

Stats are only part of the story, but what about his stuff? Here are Pineda’s average velocities by pitch type for each month in 2011.

Month	FFv	SLv	CHv
4	95.4	84.2	87.2
5	95.3	84.8	87.4
6	94.4	83.7	86.4
7	94.7	83.7	86.6
8	94.0	84.3	85.9
9	93.6	83.0	85.7
All	94.7	84.0	86.3

FFv: Four-seam fastball velocity
SLv: Slider velocity
CHv: Changeup velocity

Here are Pineda’s average four-seam fastball velocities for each game in 2011.

4/5: 95.2
4/12: 95.5
4/17: 97.2
4/22: 95.5
4/28: 95.2
5/4: 96.9
5/10: 95.8
5/16: 94.5
5/21: 94.0
5/27: 95.3
6/1: 94.1
6/6: 95.7
6/11: 95.2
6/17: 94.2
6/23: 93.0
6/28: 94.1
7/4: 93.9
7/9: 94.6
7/19: 95.4
7/24: 94.6
7/30: 94.8
8/9: 94.7
8/15: 94.5
8/21: 92.8
8/27: 94.1
9/3: 93.6
9/10: 94.7
9/21: 91.4

There was a gradual decrease as the season wore on, and the big drop between 9/10 and 9/21 is a little alarming, but he only threw 44 fastballs in that 9/21 game(out of 81 total pitches) and I don’t know if it’s anything more than a blip. His average fastball velocity through the end of June was 95 mph, and it was 94.1 mph over the rest of the season.

Velocity’s an important part of being a good MLB pitcher, but it’s not the only part. Much has been made about Pineda’s underwhelming velocity so far this spring, where’s he’s topping out below where he averaged last year. He’s also throwing with less velocity than he did last spring. However, he’s not trying to make the team like he was last year, and he’s probably focusing more on developing his changeup which has lagged behind his fastball and slider. Because of that, I think the obsession with his velocity in exhibition games is a little misguided, although I suppose controversy sells and there’s not a whole lot else that’s controversial for this year’s version of the Yankees so far.

2012 Projections
Pineda’s moving from a pitcher’s park to a disgraceful bandbox. Although Seattle has a better defensive reputation than the Yankees, the Yankees’ defensive OF is a good one and as a flyball pitcher he shouldn’t see that much of an impact from any decline in the defense behind him.

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	168	150	82	76	21	53	157	4.37	4.06	3.79	32	3.2
davenport	165	150	75	74	19	48	141	4.10	4.04	3.74	36	3.6
marcel	146	118	63	59	15	46	142	3.89	3.65	3.42	30	3.0
oliver	131	114	52	48	14	37	124	3.56	3.33	3.43	30	3.0
pecota	148	137	66	62	18	50	136	4.02	3.77	3.84	31	3.1
steamer	159	147	68	64	19	55	148	3.87	3.63	3.81	33	3.3
zips	158	149	77	72	19	51	143	4.40	4.11	3.86	24	2.4
average	153	138	69	65	18	48	142	4.03	3.80	3.70	31	3.1
2011	171	133	76	71	18	55	173	4.00	3.74	3.40	36	3.6
LgAvg	171	173	87	80	19	54	125	4.60	4.21	4.21

For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.

Pineda’s professional innings progression looks like this.

2006: 20.1 IP in Rookie ball
2007: 59.0 IP in Rookie ball
2008: 138.1 IP in Class A
2009: 47.1 IP in Rookie and A+
2010: 139.1 IP in AA and AAA
2011: 171.0 IP in MLB

Pineda missed a large chunk of 2009 with an elbow injury, but returned from that having put on about 25 pounds and a few MPH of velocity. Last year was his career high in innings pitched, and it came in the majors where innings are more stressful due to the greater caliber of competition. That may or may not explain some of his lower velocity, which means he may be able to get it back as his stamina increases. It’s probably worth noting that velocity peaks pretty early in most pitchers’ career, and Pineda may never throw as hard as he did last year. That doesn’t mean he can’t be a good pitcher without it, of course.

Pineda’s projections are reasonably consistent across the board. They’re low on innings since he has never pitched as many innings as he did last year, and ZiPS is probably seeing a rougher transition to the AL East and DNYS than the others. According to Baseball Reference there were 28 AL pitchers that had at least 3.0 WAR last year.

Baseball Reference: Playing in the AL, For 2011, (requiring WAR_pitch≥2), sorted by greatest WAR for Pitchers

Pineda himself just missed the cut off with 2.8. Pineda’s average projection would qualify for the most basic definition of a #2 starter in the AL (one of the top 28 pitchers in the league). Obviously, we hope for more than that.

CAIRO Percentile Forecasts

%	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
80%	202	166	87	81	20	55	204	3.89	3.60	3.17	49	4.9
65%	185	159	85	79	21	54	180	4.13	3.83	3.48	40	4.0
Baseline	168	150	82	76	21	53	157	4.37	4.06	3.79	32	3.2
35%	135	125	69	64	19	45	121	4.61	4.30	4.09	22	2.2
20%	118	114	64	59	18	42	101	4.86	4.53	4.39	16	1.6

The 65% forecast seems like the bare minimum for what Pineda can do to justify being traded for Jesus Montero, who’s going to win the AL MVP and Cy Young. For whatever it’s worth, since 2000 there have been 21 Yankee pitchers who put up a season of 3.9 WAR or more.

Baseball Reference: Playing for the NYY, From 2000 to 2011, (requiring WAR_pitch≥3.9), sorted by greatest WAR for Pitchers

I hated seeing Jesus Montero get traded, but Mariners fans also hated seeing Pineda get traded. That probably means that the trade was a fair one. Getting Pineda for Montero made a lot more sense than trading him for a half season of Cliff Lee or for Felix Hernandez being paid at market rate. Pineda’s not as good as either pitcher right now, and may never be, but he’ll be under team control for the next five seasons and he’ll probably be getting paid less than he’s worth and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see him elevate himself into the upper echelon of MLB pitchers if he can refine his changeup and get that fastball back.

Put it this way, if Dellin Betances had done in AAA what Pineda did last year in the majors we’d all be convinced he was on the precipice of being a very good MLB pitcher. Also, throw in the fact that Pineda did this while being a year younger than Betances.

With a pitcher, you assume more risk than you do with a position player. But while Montero had a nice MLB debut, he really hasn’t hit all that well in AAA the last two years and it’s still uncertain he’ll be anything more than a DH. I hope he goes on to have a solid career, while Pineda develops into the best pitcher in baseball and/or pitches them to a few World Series wins. If that happens and Jose Campos develops into an eighth inning guy, the Yankees will have probably won the trade.

--Posted at 10:29 am by SG / 41 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Looking Ahead to 2012 - Phil Hughes

By the time a baseball player’s been in the major leagues for five seasons, you generally have a pretty good idea of what he is. In Phil Hughes’s case we know that
a) He was arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball at one time (Baseball America had him as the #2 prospect behind Daisuke Matsuzaka in 2007.
b) He came up at age 21 and carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning of his second start before injuring his hamstring and missing a large chunk of the year. He returned from that injury and ended the season by giving the team 72 league average innings.
c) He followed that up by being awful and then getting injured again in 2008.
d) He started 2009 in the minors but was called up when Chien-Ming Wang went on the DL. He didn’t pitch all that well over his first seven starts and when Wang returned from the DL he was shifted to the bullpen instead of the minors. He then proceeded to outpitch every single reliever in the American League over the rest of the season.
e) He built on that by storming out of the gate as a full-fledged rotation member in 2010, making the All Star team. Unfortunately, his second half wasn’t quite as good.
Then came 2011.

2011
Hughes’s velocity was down all spring in 2011. While the Yankees kept saying publically they weren’t concerned about it, it never got better and after Hughes gave the team three dreadful starts of 13.94 ERA they determined he had tendinitis and he was shut down for a few months. Hughes was better upon returning, but not great as he finished the year with a 4.48 ERA over his final 65.1 innings.

So all this is a really long way of saying that even though Phil Hughes is entering his sixth major league season, we really have no idea what he is.

2012 Projections
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Hughes came into camp in great shape this year. His velocity has been better than it was at this time last year and he seems to have better secondary stuff as well. Although we have no idea what Hughes is, that doesn’t stop us silly forecasters from trying to forecast him anyway.

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	95	97	49	47	12	32	74	4.63	4.49	4.26	15	1.5
davenport	147	144	74	73	18	44	109	4.53	4.47	4.09	25	2.5
marcel	103	98	50	49	12	34	84	4.37	4.28	3.96	16	1.6
oliver	119	118	54	53	14	39	94	4.11	4.03	4.02	18	1.8
pecota	135	129	59	58	16	46	119	3.92	3.84	3.89	22	2.2
steamer	107	107	52	51	15	37	82	4.40	4.31	4.45	16	1.6
zips	123	127	71	66	18	44	96	5.21	4.84	4.55	7	0.7
average	118	117	59	57	15	40	94	4.45	4.32	4.18	17	1.7
2011	74	84	48	48	9	27	47	5.82	5.82	4.56	4.4	0.4

For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.

The projections expect a better Hughes in 2012, closer to his 2010 than his 2011 albeit in fewer innings. Despite CAIRO’s Yankee bias, it’s not even the most bullish on Hughes, until we look at these.

CAIRO Percentile Forecasts

%	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
80%	190	175	83	81	18	53	165	3.96	3.84	3.35	45	4.5
65%	142	139	68	66	16	44	117	4.30	4.16	3.76	28	2.8
Baseline	95	97	49	47	12	32	74	4.63	4.49	4.18	15	1.5
35%	76	82	42	41	11	28	56	4.96	4.82	4.58	10	1.0
20%	47	54	28	27	8	19	33	5.29	5.14	4.96	4	0.4

I really think that 80% forecast is in his range, although I would put the FIP closer to the ERA.

It’s easy to forget that Hughes is still just 26 years old. He hasn’t been the superstar we hoped he’d be when he was in the minors, but overall he’s been about league average. If he’s ever going to take a step forward, a year before potential free agency seems like the time to do it.

--Posted at 9:05 am by SG / 70 Comments | - (0)

Monday, March 19, 2012

Looking Ahead to 2012 - CC Sabathia

I haven’t gone through the rest of the bench but I’m going to wait until we have an idea of who will be on it on Opening Day. So it’s time to move on to the pitching projections. We’ll start with the ace of the staff, CC Sabathia.

2011
Sabathia had his best season as a Yankee in 2011. He put up an ERA+ of 147 which was better than his 137 and 136 marks in 2009 and 2010 respectively. Despite that, his season felt a bit disappointing because of how it finished. The turning point appears to have been his July 26 start against Seattle. Sabathia was dominating the Mariners through six innings. He had retired all 18 batters he faced and struck out 11 of them. There was a short rain delay, and CC returned to the mound to strike out Ichiro!

Unfortunately, Brendan Ryan then singled to break up the perfecto. CC struck out the next two hitters to finish off the seventh but he walked the first three hitters to start the eighth. He managed to get out of it with allowing just one run and some kid named Rivera closed it out.

So why do I think that game was some kind of turning point?

dates	ip	bf	h	hr	bb	k	ra	era	fip	xfip
3/31-7/26	169	686	143	6	45	156	2.93	2.56	2.48	3.37
8/1-9/21	61	269	80	9	14	68	4.40	4.26	3.45	2.70

Dates	fb%	gb%	ld%	bb/bf	k/bf	babip	hr/fb
3/31-7/26	30.4%	48.2%	21.4%	6.6%	22.7%	.293	4.2%
8/1-9/21	28.4%	43.8%	27.8%	5.2%	25.3%	.425	18.0%

I don’t like to attribute all babip fluctuations to luck, but the truth is Sabathia’s peripherals were arguably better over the last two months of the season. It just didn’t translate to his results.

In ALDS Game 1 vs. Detroit CC looked overpowering, better than Justin Verlander, but then the rains came again and he was out after two innings. He took the hill again for Game 3 but wasn’t good, and he made a final appearance in relief in Game 5 and gave up the run that ended up being the difference in the series.

CC had an opt-out in his contract after the season and there was some legitimate concern that he’d opt out, but the Yankees were able to keep him in the fold by adding a year to his contract at a salary that bumped him back up to being the highest-paid pitcher in baseball. Given the overall body of work over his first three seasons I don’t think many Yankee fans are upset about having him around for another year.

2012 Projections
Sabathia’s the clear #1 starter on the Yankees, and probably their most valuable player right now. Here are his projections for 2012.

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	227	218	90	82	19	64	201	3.57	3.24	3.23	63	6.3
davenport	210	192	90	89	18	60	172	3.86	3.81	3.44	52	5.2
marcel	203	189	80	73	16	59	179	3.55	3.24	3.24	50	5.0
oliver	233	225	101	92	18	64	197	3.88	3.54	3.24	49	4.9
pecota	217	204	85	77	19	52	195	3.52	3.21	3.16	57	5.7
steamer	219	205	96	88	21	68	196	3.96	3.61	3.49	44	4.4
zips	218	211	92	86	19	63	189	3.80	3.55	3.36	47	4.7
average	218	206	90	84	19	61	190	3.73	3.46	3.31	52	5.2
2011	237	230	87	79	17	61	230	3.30	3.00	2.85	66	6.6
LgAvg	237	239	121	111	27	75	174	4.60	4.21	4.21

For pitchers, I’m using the following projections.

CAIRO, my own projection system.
Clay Davenport, formerly of Baseball Prospectus’s projections
An unofficial version of Tangotiger’s Marcel, which were run using code provided by Jeff Sackmann.
Oliver, from the Hardball Times Forecasts.
PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus.
ZiPS, courtesy of Dan Szymborski at Baseball Think Factory.

A new addition for the pitchers is Steamer. The hitter projections weren’t ready when I started this so I didn’t include them, but according to this article Steamer was the only thing that prevented CAIRO from being the best pitching projection system last year. Steamer is similar to Marcel, but incorporates velocity data as well and it seemed to help it leap to the top of the 2011 projections.

There appears to be two distinct sets of projections here.

CAIRO/Marcel/PECOTA: 3.54 RA, 3.23 ERA, 3.21 FIP
Davenport/Oliver/Steamer/ZiPS: 3.87 RA, 3.63 ERA, 3.38 FIP

I think the first group is closer to the truth.

CAIRO Percentile Forecasts

%	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
80%	245	220	87	79	15	60	233	3.19	2.88	2.67	79	7.9
65%	236	219	89	80	17	62	217	3.38	3.06	2.90	71	7.1
Baseline	227	218	90	82	19	64	201	3.57	3.24	3.14	63	6.3
35%	204	203	85	78	19	61	175	3.76	3.42	3.37	53	5.3
20%	182	186	80	73	18	57	150	3.95	3.60	3.60	43	4.3

Sign me up for that 80% forecast.

The Yankees rotation is probably the deepest it’s been in years. That being said, there’s CC and there’s everyone else. I am pretty sure the group of Hiroki Kuroda, Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes and Andy Pettitte will project similarly to each other, with Freddy Garcia a bit behind them. But none of them can replace Sabathia. CC lost some weight this offseason to help reduce the strain on his knees. Of course he did that last year too but seemed to gain it all back by year-end.

Let’s hope he can stay healthy and give the Yankees another great year.

--Posted at 8:58 am by SG / 71 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, March 18, 2012

WaPo: Boswell: Phillies’ toughest opponent might be Father Time

Baseball must despise a sure thing. The Phils are still a sane pick to be in the World Series. But they also might not even win their own division. With a speed that is chilling, the gap between the Phils and the rest of the NL East — much less all of baseball — has shrunk to the point where this season, or very soon, the young, rising Braves, Nationals and Marlins, or all three of them, may be on the Phils’ aging heels.

I want to take a trip down memory lane.

March 11, 2011: Hardball Talk: Cliff Lee chose Philly because the Yankees are getting older. At least in Cliff Lee’s mind.

“Texas probably finished second to be honest with you. Just as far as the quality of the team and the chance to win a World Series ring, I think they’re a better team. That’s just my opinion. The Yankees can do anything at any moment to improve and they’re not afraid to go do things. That was part of the decision making process too,

Durp.

but I felt like with what the Red Sox had done and it seems like some of the Yankee guys are getting older, but I liked the Rangers.”

Double durp.

If I sum up age times PA and age times batters faced divided by PA + BF for all teams using my current depth charts for 2012, here’s the average age by team.

PHI: 30.5
NYA: 30.1
STL: 29.3
LAA: 28.9
BOS: 28.6
MIN: 28.6
OAK: 28.4
COL: 28.3
LAD: 28.2
MIL: 28.1
CHN: 28.1
PIT: 27.9
TEX: 27.9
NYN: 27.9
SF: 27.7
MIA: 27.6
TB: 27.6
HOU: 27.5
CLE: 27.4
BAL: 27.4
CHA: 27.4
SEA: 27.2
SD: 27.1
ARI: 27.0
CIN: 27.0
DET: 27.0
WAS: 26.9
TOR: 26.6
ATL: 26.5
KC: 26.0

Triple durp.

Here are CAIRO’s up to the minute projections for each of the three teams that were in contention for Cliff Lee’s services.

NYA: 96-66
TEX: 93-69
PHI 91-71

Quadruple durp.

--Posted at 3:32 pm by SG / 25 Comments | - (0)

Friday, March 16, 2012

TGS NY: Sources: Andy Pettitte returning

TAMPA, Fla.—Left-hander Andy Pettitte is coming back to the New York Yankees.

Pettitte, who retired before last season, has agreed to a $2.5 million minor league deal and will work his way back into shape, baseball sources told ESPN The Magazine’s Buster Olney.

Pettitte started 21 games in 2010 for the Yankees, going 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA. He was 14-8 with a 4.16 ERA in 2009, his last full season.

My sources have procured an exclusive picture of Pettitte working his way back into shape.

Yeah, I used the same pic and joke last year. So what?

Pettitte can probably platoon with Andruw Jones at DH and provide more offense than Raul Ibanez.

Seriously though, I don’t get this. Isn’t starting pitching the last area of need for the Yankees? That being said, I’m happy to see how this works out. It can’t hurt, really.

Update: Pettitte’s CAIRO percentile forecasts added below:

%	G	GS	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	HBP	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
80%	25	25	10	7	152	145	64	57	12	43	2	121	3.76	3.38	3.28	39	3.9
65%	23	23	9	7	140	139	63	57	13	43	3	106	4.09	3.69	3.64	31	3.1
Baseline	21	21	8	6	127	132	62	57	13	42	3	92	4.42	4.01	4.00	23	2.3
35%	17	17	6	5	102	110	54	49	12	36	4	69	4.75	4.32	4.37	15	1.5
20%	15	15	5	5	89	101	50	46	12	34	4	57	5.09	4.63	4.73	10	1.0

FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs saved above replacement level using RA
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)

--Posted at 12:14 pm by SG / 61 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Looking Ahead to 2012 - Andruw Jones and Raul Ibanez

With the loss of Jesus Montero and with Russell Branyan not having made an appearance yet due to a back injury, the 2012 DH for the Yankees is probably going to be some combination of Andruw Jones, Raul Ibanez, and starters that are getting a half day of rest. No, it’s not quite as exciting as it would have been to watch Montero developing, but it is what it is.

2011
From 2007-2009 Jones hit .207/.304/.393 over 1228 PA and effectively appeared to be done as an MLB player. Over the last two seasons he’s hit .237/.347/.489 with 32 HRs in 550 PA and appears to have recovered some of that lost ability. Is that true though?

split	pa%	pa	ab	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	hbp	k	avg	obp	slg	bb/pa	k/pa	babip
vs. LHP (2010-2011)	45%	248	212	58	10	0	16	33	3	58	.274	.379	.547	13.3%	23.4%	.304
vs. RHP (2010-2011)	55%	302	256	53	10	1	16	41	3	77	.207	.321	.441	13.6%	25.5%	.224
Total (2010-2011)		550	468	111	20	1	32	74	6	135	.237	.347	.489	13.5%	24.5%	.261
vs. LHP (2007-2009)	37%	454	374	80	20	2	16	70	5	97	.214	.341	.406	15.4%	21.4%	.241
vs. RHP (2007-2009)	63%	774	688	140	33	1	30	72	6	189	.203	.282	.385	9.3%	24.4%	.231
Total (2007-2009)		1228	1062	220	53	3	46	142	11	286	.207	.304	.393	11.6%	23.3%	.234

He’s walked and struck out a bit more over the last two seasons when compared to his 2007-2009 stretch, but other that the primary change appears to be in his deployment (a higher percentage of PA vs. LHP) and in his batting average on balls in play (BABIP of .261 vs. .234). It’s easy to forget now that the calls for Jones to be DFA’d last season were pretty frequent early on, as he hit .195.278/.356 through July 10. Jones surged after that and ended the year by hitting .291/.416/.612 over his final 125 PA.

Jones faced LHP in 79.7% of his 2011 PA, and that may help explain some of his better than expected performance. However, he did face a higher percentage of RHP over the second half of the year.

split	pa%	pa	ab	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	hbp	k	avg	obp	slg	bb/pa	k/pa	babip
vs. LHP(through 7/10/2011)	75%	73	65	15	2	0	4	8	0	22	.231	.315	.446	11.0%	30.1%	.282
vs. RHP(through 7/10/2011)	25%	24	22	2	0	0	0	2	0	8	.091	.167	.091	8.3%	33.3%	.143
Total (through 7/10/2011)		97	87	17	2	0	4	10	0	30	.195	.278	.356	10.3%	30.9%	.245
vs. LHP(7/14/2011 on)	58%	73	61	21	6	0	4	10	2	17	.344	.452	.639	13.7%	23.3%	.425
vs. RHP (7/14/2011 on)	42%	52	42	9	0	0	5	9	1	15	.214	.365	.571	17.3%	28.8%	.182
Total (through 7/14/2011 on)		125	103	30	6	0	9	19	3	32	.291	.416	.612	15.2%	25.6%	.339

The BABIP was low but he hit for good power against them.

Raul Ibanez did stuff last year too, but it was in a weaker league for a weaker team and I don’t really feel like getting into it.

Offensive Projections
Can some combination of Jones and Ibanez provide a useful primary DH? Here are Jones’s projections.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
cairo	315	271	38	60	13	1	13	41	4	1	37	76	8	3	.221	.318	.413	.321	37	76	3
davenport	353	308	41	74	15	1	18	41	3	1	42	81	9	3	.240	.337	.471	.351	49	89	7
marcel	344	297	41	70	14	1	16	45	6	2	40	78	9	3	.236	.328	.451	.338	45	85	7
oliver	369	319	46	74	15	1	17	51	4	2	45	86	9	3	.232	.331	.445	.338	47	83	7
pecota	414	362	48	80	16	1	17	48	5	2	48	102	11	4	.220	.317	.410	.321	48	75	3
zips	257	222	31	52	10	0	13	38	3	1	32	65	7	2	.234	.335	.455	.344	34	86	6
average	342	295	41	65	14	1	16	44	4	2	41	82	9	3	.221	.319	.443	.336	42	80	5
2011	222	190	27	47	8	0	13	33	0	0	29	62	3	3	.247	.356	.495	.368	33	97	9
2011 AL	222	199	26	51	10	1	6	25	4	2	18	40	4	2	.258	.323	.408	.319	26	75

For more information about the projections above, you can read the first post in this series.

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

I’ve included his 2011 and the league average line for his 2011 PA as frames of reference. I haven’t adjusted league average for DNYS.

And for Ibanez.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
cairo	609	549	76	146	34	3	22	87	4	2	52	111	14	2	.266	.329	.458	.340	80	85	13
davenport
marcel	551	497	66	126	29	3	19	74	4	1	45	105	13	2	.254	.314	.439	.325	67	79	7
oliver	577	523	63	128	28	2	17	69	3	1	46	104	15	1	.245	.303	.403	.308	63	70	0
pecota	552	507	66	126	28	2	17	66	2	1	43	109	13	2	.249	.310	.413	.317	62	73	2
zips	540	494	62	125	28	2	18	83	3	1	40	98	12	1	.253	.307	.427	.318	63	76	4
average	566	510	71	136	29	2	19	76	3	1	45	105	13	2	.266	.323	.431	.322	70	81	9
2011	575	535	65	131	31	1	20	84	2	0	33	106	13	2	.245	.289	.419	.305	63	71	0
2011 AL	575	516	67	133	27	3	15	64	11	4	46	104	11	5	.258	.323	.408	.319	66	75

I’ll just say I think CAIRO is way, way off on Ibanez. BRAR for both players are being calculated as DHs. If they are able to play the OF they would pick a bit more relative value, although Ibanez surely gives that all away with his defense.

CAIRO Percentiles Forecast - Jones

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
80%	346	298	48	75	18	2	18	52	6	0	48	74	7	5	.250	.368	.500	.378	55	103	17
65%	330	285	43	67	16	1	15	46	5	1	42	76	6	4	.236	.343	.456	.350	46	90	10
Baseline	315	271	38	60	13	1	13	41	4	1	37	76	8	3	.221	.318	.413	.321	37	76	3
35%	283	244	31	51	10	0	10	34	3	2	31	73	8	3	.207	.299	.370	.296	28	64	-3
20%	252	217	25	42	8	0	7	27	2	2	25	68	9	4	.193	.280	.326	.271	20	51	-8

Jones had knee surgery in the offseason and came into camp in great shape (just like every other player but Phil Hughes circa 2011). I think his baseline forecast is a bit pessimistic and wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the 65% area. I do think it’s wishful thinking to think he’s going to suddenly re-establish himself as an everyday player after five straight seasons of not being one, but I don’t think anyone here really thinks that.

CAIRO Percentiles Forecast - Ibanez

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
80%	670	604	93	174	44	5	29	106	6	0	65	110	12	4	.288	.363	.523	.381	108	105	35
65%	639	577	84	160	39	4	25	96	5	1	58	111	11	3	.277	.346	.490	.361	94	95	24
Baseline	609	549	76	146	34	3	22	87	4	2	52	111	14	2	.266	.329	.458	.340	80	85	13
35%	548	494	65	126	28	2	17	74	3	2	43	104	14	3	.255	.314	.426	.321	64	76	4
20%	487	439	54	107	23	1	14	62	2	2	36	97	14	3	.244	.300	.394	.302	50	67	-3

I’ll go the opposite direction here. I think Ibanez’s baseline projection is way optimistic. I think his 35% projection is optimistic too. I would be shocked if he’s a Yankee at the All Star Break.

Neither guy is probably worthy of being the full-time DH. However, a platoon of the two would look something like this.

split	pa	ab	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	so	hbp	gdp	avg	obp	slg	woba	br/650
Jones vs. LHP	166	139	33	7	0	6	24	39	1	4	.234	.352	.413	.343	90
Ibanez vs. RHP	447	401	109	26	2	18	41	73	1	11	.272	.336	.470	.348	90
Overall	612	540	142	33	2	23	65	112	2	15	.263	.341	.462	.347	90

That’s probably worth about a win over a replacement level DH.

Base Running
Both players are physically capable of running the bases.

Defense - Jones

pos	Inn	DRS	UZR	TZ	ZR	avg
LF	161	1	1	0	0	1
CF	161	1	2	-4	-1	0
RF	161	2	2	-4	-1	0
Total	483	3	5	-8	-2	1

DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating

Jones can still probably play average defense in the corners. He can probably play some CF too, although he should be behind Brett Gardner on the depth chart.

Defense - Ibanez

pos		Inn	DRS	UZR	TZ	ZR	avg
LF		1221	-8	-9	-6	-2	-6

I thought Ibanez would show up as -20 or so, so this surprises me some. I don’t think he’s a good OF, but hopefully he won’t be needed much out there.

Value - Jones

Projection	RAA	Rep	Pos	RAR	BRR	Def	WAR
cairo	1	10	-8	3	-1.5	1	0.2
marcel	5	11	-9	7	-1.5	1	0.6
oliver	5	12	-9	7	-1.5	1	0.6
pecota	0	13	-10	3	-1.5	1	0.2
zips	4	8	-6	6	-1.5	1	0.5
average	2	11	-9	5	-1.5	1	0.4
2011	8	7	-6	9	-2.3	3	1.0

Rep: Replacement level adjustment (22 runs per 700 PA pro-rated to projected PA)
Pos: Position-adjustment
RAR: Runs above replacement (Rep + Pos)
BRR: Base running runs (does not include SB)
Def: Projected runs saved defensively
WAR: Wins above replacement (RAR + BRR + Def) divided by 10

Offense replacement level is compared to DH, so give him a few more runs depending on how much outfield he plays.

Value - Ibanez

Projection	RAA	Rep	Pos	RAR	BRR	Def	WAR
cairo	10	19	-15	13	-0.4	0	1.3
marcel	3	17	-14	7	-0.4	0	0.7
oliver	-4	18	-14	0	-0.4	0	-0.1
pecota	-1	17	-14	2	-0.4	0	0.2
zips	1	17	-14	4	-0.4	0	0.4
average	5	18	-14	9	-0.4	0	0.8
2011	-4	18	-14	0	-0.6	3	0.2

Again I’ll mention that I think CAIRO is insane with its Ibanez projection. Thankfully the Yankees don’t have that much invested in him, and if he does start to drag them down he can be released fairly easily. I think Russell Branyan would out-produce Ibanez vs. RHP, but I don’t know how long he’ll be in the organization if he doesn’t break camp with the team.

DH doesn’t seem like it’s going to be much of an asset this year, and it’s certainly not going to be as enjoyable as it would have been with Montero around. And for some reason my hands want to type Iganez every time I try to type Ibanez, which makes these posts take several seconds longer to write. Despite all that, it could be worse.

We could be watching pitchers “hit.”

--Posted at 9:54 am by SG / 37 Comments | - (0)

Monday, March 12, 2012

Looking Ahead to 2012 - Nick Swisher

Today we’ll look at the last of the Yankees’ primary starting position players, Nick Swisher. Swisher is heading into the last season of his contract and I think there’s a better than 50/50 chance it’ll be his last season as a Yankee. If the Yankees are serious about cutting payroll, letting Swisher walk is one way to achieve it, although it’s likely to weaken the team in the short-term.

2011
Swisher had arguably the best season of his career in 2010, hitting for a career-high OPS+ of 129. His projections heading into 2011 expected him to decline from that level, which he did.

projection	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	HBP	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650
2010	635	566	163	33	3	29	58	6	139	.288	.357	.511	.373	97	99
avg 2011 proj	635	544	139	30	2	28	79	5	139	.256	.352	.471	.357	89	92
2011	635	526	137	30	0	23	95	5	125	.260	.373	.449	.362	89	91
delta		-18	-2	0	-2	-5	16	0	-14	.005	.021	-.022	.005	0	0

Swisher traded some walks for some power, but the end result was a season that was right in line with his average projection in terms of overall value. Since trading for Swisher, the Yankees have gotten 1877 PA and an overall line of .267/.368/.486 and somewhere in the area of 11 WAR. Not bad for a guy who hit .219/.332/.410 in the year prior to his acquisition. I remember a Jon Heyman interview with Mike Francesa when the Yankees first traded for Swisher where Heyman smugly made the comment that “some people think Swisher hit in bad luck last year, but it must have been some really bad luck.” Yes Jon, it was.

Unfortunately, Swisher hasn’t been able to hit the way he has in the regular season in his three postseasons with the Yankees. While I’m sure there’s some bad luck in there(a regular season batting average on balls in play(BABIP) of .302 vs. a postseason BABIP of .176), there’s also a lower walk rate (10.5% BB/PA in the postseason vs. 13.3% in the regular season) and a higher strikeout rate(24.6% K/PA in the postseason vs. 20.8% in the regular season). Of course you do face better pitching in the postseason, but it doesn’t explain away the difference between .160/.254/.330 and .267/.367/.486.

Because of that, and because Swisher will be 32 in 2013, I think the Yankees will thank Swisher for (hopefully) four good seasons and let him walk. But it’s not time to look ahead to 2013 yet, so let’s look at 2012.

Offensive Projections

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
cairo	626	533	84	138	31	1	24	82	2	2	80	129	15	5	.259	.357	.455	.354	86	90	27
davenport	594	510	71	135	26	1	27	76	1	2	80	121	13	4	.265	.370	.478	.370	87	96	27
marcel	581	497	76	131	29	1	23	76	2	2	71	119	13	5	.264	.358	.465	.357	81	91	26
oliver	599	512	72	133	31	1	20	77	1	1	75	120	15	4	.260	.355	.441	.349	80	87	23
pecota	600	514	78	129	28	1	23	73	2	1	81	132	13	5	.251	.360	.444	.354	82	89	25
zips	587	498	76	126	27	1	24	82	1	2	80	129	14	4	.253	.359	.456	.356	81	90	25
average	598	509	80	132	29	1	23	78	2	2	78	125	14	4	.259	.360	.458	.357	83	90	26
2011	635	526	81	137	30	0	23	85	2	2	95	125	18	5	.260	.373	.449	.362	89	91	29
2011 AL	635	570	74	147	29	3	17	71	12	5	51	114	13	5	.258	.323	.408	.319	73	75

For more information about the projections above, you can read the first post in this series.

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

I’ve included his 2011 and the league average line for his 2011 PA as frames of reference. I haven’t adjusted league average for DNYS, so mentally adjust that upwards if you want to account for disgraceful bandboxedness.

The projections expect a bit of a drop off for Swisher, which they usually do for everyone. Not much of one though.

CAIRO Percentiles Forecast

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
80%	689	586	102	165	40	3	32	101	4	1	98	129	13	8	.281	.394	.519	.397	116	109	50
65%	658	560	93	151	35	2	28	91	3	1	89	129	12	6	.270	.376	.487	.375	101	99	38
Baseline	626	533	84	138	31	1	24	82	2	2	80	129	15	5	.259	.357	.455	.354	86	90	27
35%	564	480	71	119	25	1	19	70	1	2	68	121	15	5	.248	.343	.423	.336	70	80	16
20%	501	427	60	101	20	0	15	59	1	3	57	112	15	6	.237	.328	.391	.317	55	71	8

We’ll probably be hearing about Swisher being in a contract year all season, but the effect of that is generally overstated. The baseline seems about right to me.

Base Running

Year	gaR	aaR	haR	oaR	SBR	BRR
2008	1.7	0.3	0.4	0.1	-0.52	1.9
2009	-0.9	-0.2	0.1	0.1	-0.11	-1.0
2010	0.2	-0.9	-0.3	0.0	-0.04	-1.0
2011	2.3	-0.2	-1.7	0.0	-0.6	-0.3
Projection	1.0	-0.4	-0.7	0.0	-0.3	-0.4

gaR:base running runs above average on ground ball outs
aaR:base running runs above average on fly ball outs
haR:base running runs above average on hits
oaR:base running runs above average on wild pitches/passed balls
SBR: stolen base runs above average

Swisher’s been a smidgen worse than average on the bases, but it hasn’t been enough to significantly alter his value and shouldn’t be in 2012 either.

Defense
The biggest surprise for me with Swisher as a Yankee has been his defense. He did come up as a CF, but he wasn’t really good enough to stay there. He may benefit slightly from having to cover a right field the size of a postage stamp, but them’s the breaks.

pos		Inn	DRS	UZR	TZ	ZR	avg
RF		944	3	3	7	0	3

He’s been a hair better than average in his aggregate defensive metrics in each of the last three years and projects similarly in 2012.

DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating

Value

Projection	RAA	Rep	Pos	RAR	BRR	Def	WAR
cairo	14	20	-7	27	-0.1	3	3.0
marcel	14	18	-6	26	-0.1	3	2.9
oliver	11	19	-6	23	-0.1	3	2.6
pecota	13	19	-6	25	-0.1	3	2.8
zips	13	18	-6	25	-0.1	3	2.8
average	14	19	-6	26	-0.1	3	3.0
2011	16	20	-7	29	0.3	1	3.0

Before you ask, yes 3.0, 2.9, 2.6, 2.8 and 2.8 average to 3.0. Well, technically speaking, 3.003, 2.945, 2.630, 2.812 and 2.842 average to 2.955.

The average projection expects him to be about as valuable as he was in 2011. At $5M a win that’s worth something like $15M. Given his age, you’d expect a decline of something in the area of 0.5 - 0.7 wins a year from 2013 on. So a fair contract for Swisher after this year might be something like 3 years/$35M or 4 years/$39M. That seems to be more than the Yankees should spend if they really want to get under that $189M target. I have no idea who his replacement may be, but right now it doesn’t seem like anyone in the organization will be ready by next year. If they can get a league average OF out of some combination of players for less than whatever Swisher would cost them it shouldn’t cost them more than a half a win or so.

I’m a fan of Swisher’s, although his postseasons have driven me nuts. I don’t think the Yankees should bring him back after this year, but that’s mainly because I’d rather see them locking up one or both of Robinson Cano/Curtis Granderson instead. That being said, I’m hopeful he has a season and a postseason that makes the Yankees think long and hard about re-signing him anyway.

--Posted at 9:50 am by SG / 59 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Looking Ahead to 2012 - Curtis Granderson

Curtis Granderson had a pretty rough start to his Yankee career. Then, as every Yankee fan knows, he re-worked his swing with Kevin Long in Texas in early August of 2010. It’s been a tale of two Grandys since then.

Dates	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SB	CS	HBP	GDP	avg	obp	slg	woba	isoD	isoP
4/4/10-8/11/10	334	72	11	6	10	29	74	10	0	1	1	.240	.305	.417	.313	.065	.177
8/12/10-9/28/11	865	195	32	11	55	109	210	26	12	13	13	.263	.366	.558	.391	.104	.295

Dates	br	br/650	babip	FB	GB	LD	IFH	fb%	gb%	ld%	bb/pa	k/pa	hr/fb
4/4/10-8/11/10	40	78	.287	104	72	52	5	45.6%	31.6%	22.8%	8.7%	22.2%	9.6%
8/12/10-9/28/11	148	111	.294	258	184	93	12	48.2%	34.4%	17.4%	12.6%	24.3%	21.3%

FB: fly balls
GB: ground balls
LD: line drives
IFH: infield hits
woba: weighted on-base average
isoD: Isolated plate discipline (obp - avg)
isoP: Isolated power (slg - avg)
br: linear weights batting runs
br/650: br pro-rated to 650 PA
babip: batting average on balls in play

Granderson’s walking more frequently now, and has traded some line drives for fly balls and ground balls. The big spike is in his HR/FB rate, which has more than doubled. I know what you’re thinking. DNYS!

Since 8/12/2010 home .271/.365/.593, 30 HRs.
Since 8/12/2010 road .254/.360/.520, 25 HRs.

Just about every player hits better at home, usually around 10% better. In Granderson’s case he’s been about 7% better at home, which means we don’t need to consider his performance overly disgraceful.

2011
When a player makes a tangible change that means he’s not the same player he was, projection systems are often the last to realize it. Granderson’s average 2011 projection had him pegged for a slight improvement on his 2010.

projection	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	HBP	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650
2010	546	482	119	17	7	24	55	2	118	.247	.322	.461	.337	73	86
avg 2011 proj	691	612	156	25	9	29	71	3	141	.256	.333	.469	.346	95	90
2011	691	583	153	26	10	41	85	12	169	.262	.362	.552	.386	115	108
delta		-29	-3	1	1	12	14	9	28	.007	.029	.083	.039	20	19

As you can see, Granderson was a disaster. He struck out 28 more times than projected, which is an outrage.

Perhaps the biggest area of improvement in Granderson’s game was vs. LHP. He entered 2011 with regressed projected platoon splits of .216/.287/.396 with a wOBA of .297 vs. LHP and .264/.351/.485 with a wOBA of .363 vs. RHP. Instead he hit .272/.347/.597 with a wOBA of .400 vs. LHP and .258/.372/531 with a wOBA of .388
vs. RHP.

Granderson tailed off a bit in September (.205/.300/.375) which probably cost him some MVP votes, and for whatever reason his defensive numbers were subpar even though he seemed fine to me using the ol’ eyeball test but it was a great year for a very easy guy to root for.

Offensive Projections

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
cairo	644	560	103	147	24	7	32	86	16	6	73	142	7	6	.263	.353	.502	.366	97	98	45
davenport	607	532	86	139	29	8	31	83	18	6	68	131	7	7	.261	.354	.521	.374	96	103	37
marcel	598	522	93	132	22	7	28	80	18	6	63	131	7	6	.253	.338	.483	.351	85	92	37
oliver	612	534	82	131	22	8	25	79	15	5	65	135	6	5	.245	.330	.457	.339	81	86	32
pecota	724	642	95	167	29	11	30	102	21	6	75	159	8	7	.261	.347	.481	.357	105	94	47
zips	628	547	104	140	22	8	31	92	16	7	71	143	7	6	.256	.347	.495	.361	92	95	42
average	635	553	102	145	25	8	30	87	17	6	69	140	7	6	.263	.349	.492	.358	95	97	43
2011	691	583	136	153	26	10	41	119	25	10	85	169	12	12	.262	.362	.552	.386	115	108	59
2011 AL	691	620	81	160	32	3	18	77	13	5	56	125	14	6	.258	.323	.408	.319	80	75

For more information about the projections above, you can read the first post in this series.

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

I’ve included his 2011 and the league average line for his 2011 PA as frames of reference. I haven’t adjusted league average for DNYS, so mentally adjust that upwards.

CAIRO and Davenport like Granderson a bit more than the other projections, with the non-park adjusted Oliver appearing the most pessimistic. But if you boost that for DNYS it probably looks more in-line with the others.

CAIRO Percentiles Forecast

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
80%	708	616	125	175	32	11	41	105	22	4	89	143	6	9	.285	.389	.572	.410	130	119	73
65%	676	588	114	161	28	9	36	95	19	5	81	143	5	8	.274	.370	.537	.388	113	109	59
Baseline	644	560	103	147	24	7	32	86	16	6	73	142	7	6	.263	.352	.502	.366	97	98	45
35%	579	504	89	127	20	5	26	73	13	7	62	133	8	6	.252	.338	.467	.347	79	88	32
20%	515	448	75	108	15	4	21	62	10	7	51	123	8	7	.241	.325	.432	.328	62	78	21

I think the changes Kevin Long instituted make Granderson a decent bet to outhit the baseline projection, although I don’t think he makes enough contact to hit much more than .270. I think he’ll be closer to 40 HRs than 30 if he’s healthy though.

One other thing that should be mentioned is that despite his great year vs. LHP in 2011, the best bet for projecting how he’ll do in 2011 is to use regressed projected platoon splits which incorporate 2011. So here’s how that looks.

split	pa	ab	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	so	hbp	gdp	avg	obp	slg	woba
vs. LHP	169	149	34	5	2	6	13	42	3	2	.230	.308	.440	.321
Vs. RHP	475	411	113	19	5	26	60	100	3	5	.274	.366	.524	.382

Base Running

Year	gaR	aaR	haR	oaR	SBR	BRR
2008	0.8	1.1	3.1	-0.1	0.15	5.1
2009	3.5	-1.1	1.4	-0.2	-0.35	3.3
2010	1.1	-0.1	-0.1	0.1	2.07	3.1
2011	0.8	0.0	3.3	0.3	0.41	4.8
Projection	1.4	-0.1	1.9	0.1	0.7	4.0

Granderson adds some value on the bases too, although he was caught stealing a bit too frequently so it wasn’t so much in stolen bases as in other areas. He’s been a plus baserunner over the last four years and should be one again in 2012.

Defense
As I mentioned above, Granderson had a down year according to the defensive metrics. It was at odds with what he’s done over most of his career.

year	G	Inn	DRS	zRS	uRS	tRS	avg	rARM
2006	157	1312	5	6	12	6	7	0
2007	157	1285	16	9	15	5	11	4
2008	140	1188	-7	3	-11	1	-4	-1
2009	160	1384	14	8	-1	8	7	-1
2010	134	1101	6	2	9	-5	3	1
2011	155	1348	-15	-9	-5	-2	-8	4

DRS: Defensive runs saved compared to average using John Dewan’s plus/minus system
zRS: Runs saved compared to average using Chris Dial’s zone rating system
uRS: Runs saved compared to average using UZR
tRS: Runs saved compared to average using Total Zone
rARM: Runs saved with arm compared to average (OF only)

He’s probably at an age where we should expect to start seeing some decline, but he projects as around average for 2012. If he starts to look worse than that, I could see the Yankees flipping him and Gardner, but I’d guess it wouldn’t happen this year.

pos		Inn	DRS	UZR	TZ	ZR	avg
CF		1269	-1	-1	1	0	0

DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating

Value

Projection	RAA	Rep	Pos	RAR	BRR	Def	WAR
cairo	23	20	2	45	3.3	0	4.8
marcel	16	19	2	37	3.3	0	4.0
oliver	10	19	2	32	3.3	0	3.5
pecota	21	23	3	47	3.3	0	5.0
zips	20	20	2	42	3.3	0	4.5
average	21	20	2	43	3.3	0	4.7
2011	35	22	2	59	4.4	-12	5.2

Granderson projects to be a bit less valuable than last year, but he actually projects to be the best position player on the Yankees (just edging Robinson Cano’s average 4.6 WAR projection).

The Yankees paid a pretty steep price to get Granderson in pinstripes, but he’s been worth every penny. He’s a fun player to watch and he’s comes off as a really good guy in interviews. I don’t know if he’s in their long-term plans, but I am happy he’ll probably be around for at least the next two years.

--Posted at 10:17 am by SG / 29 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Looking Ahead to 2012 - Brett Gardner

2011
Despite 2011 being his age 27 season, which is the most common peak for a player, Brett Gardner fell off a bit from his 2010 season. Gardner dropped from .277/.383/.379 to .259/.345/.369. This was more than a BABIP thing, as he lost just .018 on his average but lost .038 on his OBP thanks to a drop in his walk rate. Gardner actually struck out a bit less frequently in 2011, but it doesn’t seem to have helped. It probably wasn’t realistic to expect Gardner to repeat his 2010 in 2011, and his projections heading into the year didn’t, but he still underperformed his average projection by a bit, although it was almost all tied into his walks.

projection	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	HBP	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650
2010	569	477	132	20	7	5	79	5	101	.277	.380	.379	.345	78	89
avg 2011 proj	588	501	132	20	7	6	71	5	106	.263	.353	.367	.325	73	80
2011	588	510	132	19	8	7	60	8	93	.259	.340	.369	.318	70	78
delta		9	0	-1	1	1	-11	3	-13	-.004	-.013	.002	-.007	-2	-3

Even though Gardner’s offense was a bit of a disappointment, he had another valuable year overall thanks to his defense and his baserunning. After an early season speed slump that saw him get caught 6 times in 11 SB attempts Gardner was much better over the rest of the year stealing successfully in 44 of his last 51 attempts. Gardner has consistently rated as one of the top defensive players in baseball relative to his peers and did so again in 2011. Of course, it helps that his peers are generally lumbering oafs that can’t be hidden anywhere else on the field, and we have a bit less certainty about how accurate the estimates of his defensive value are, but you really have to reach to think Gardner’s hasn’t been a very valuable part of the Yankees.

Offensive Projections

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
cairo	484	418	74	109	16	6	6	38	35	8	53	82	5	5	.262	.352	.371	.324	59	79	13
davenport	612	540	91	148	28	10	10	50	47	13	65	96	6	7	.274	.363	.419	.346	84	90	18
marcel	551	476	83	127	19	7	7	43	42	10	59	91	6	6	.267	.352	.380	.326	69	81	16
oliver	519	448	70	118	18	7	5	36	35	10	57	81	5	6	.263	.353	.368	.323	62	78	13
pecota	597	521	70	138	20	8	6	53	48	11	69	103	7	7	.265	.362	.369	.331	75	81	18
zips	531	462	80	120	17	8	6	39	43	10	61	91	5	6	.260	.358	.370	.327	66	81	16
average	549	474	83	124	20	8	7	43	42	10	61	91	6	6	.262	.352	.382	.329	68	80	16
2011	588	510	87	132	19	8	7	36	49	13	60	93	5	8	.259	.340	.369	.318	70	78	14
2011 AL	588	528	69	136	27	3	15	66	11	4	48	106	12	5	.258	.323	.408	.319	68	75

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

I’ve included his 2011 and the league average line for his 2011 PA as frames of reference. I haven’t adjusted league average for DNYS, so mentally adjust for that.

For more information about the projections above, you can read the first post in this series.

The Davenport projection sticks out here a bit, predicting a sudden surge of power. The rest are all pretty tightly clustered in the 78-81 range in terms of batting runs per 650 PA. Gardner doesn’t hit like the typical LF, but because of his stolen bases he makes up for a big part of the difference. I’m less concerned about that slugging percentage and would like to see him get back into that 360 OBP area.

CAIRO Percentiles Forecast

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
80%	678	586	115	168	28	11	12	61	58	8	85	102	5	11	.287	.392	.435	.369	106	102	42
65%	581	502	93	138	22	8	9	49	46	8	68	93	4	8	.274	.372	.403	.346	81	91	26
Baseline	484	418	74	109	16	6	6	38	35	8	53	82	5	5	.262	.352	.371	.324	59	79	13
35%	436	376	62	94	13	4	4	31	29	9	45	78	6	6	.249	.336	.339	.305	46	69	5
20%	387	335	52	79	10	3	3	25	23	9	37	73	6	6	.237	.321	.308	.285	35	59	-2

I’d be perfectly happy with the baseline forecast with the 80% PA. I have a hard time envisioning Gardner slugging .400+, but if he gets a few hits to fall in I could see him flirting with a .300 AVG and .400 OBP/SLG.

Base Running

Year	gaR	aaR	haR	oaR	SBR	BRR
2008	1.2	-0.9	0.7	-0.1	2.05	2.9
2009	0.9	0.5	0.8	0.1	1.76	4.1
2010	3.5	0.7	1.8	0.2	2.53	8.7
2011	5.0	1.5	1.1	-0.3	0.49	7.7
Projection	3.4	0.8	1.2	0.0	1.5	6.8

Gardner gets as much value out of his legs as Amanda Righetti. While that might be a problem when the wheels start to go, it shouldn’t be an issue in 2012. What’s interesting to note here is just how much of that value comes from areas other than in stolen bases. That’s part of the hidden value of Gardner, and something he may not get enough credit for.

Defense

pos		Inn	DRS	UZR	TZ	ZR	avg
LF		882	13	19	20	10	16

DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating

If you believe the defensive metrics, Gardner’s biggest virtue is his other-worldly defense. As I’ve mentioned here and in other posts, as a CF Gardner wouldn’t look as good because he’d be compared to better defenders. But I have little question he’d be a solidly above average CF if he was asked to play there. If the numbers in this post are to believed, there isn’t that much of a benefit to swapping Gardner with Curtis Granderson, so I would probably not waste too much energy on that. The projection is regressed, but the standard caveats about being careful regarding defensive metrics still apply here.

Value

Projection	RAA	Rep	Pos	RAR	BRR	Def	WAR
cairo	3	15	-5	13	5.3	16	3.4
marcel	5	17	-6	16	5.3	16	3.7
oliver	2	16	-6	13	5.3	16	3.4
pecota	6	19	-6	18	5.3	16	3.9
zips	5	17	-6	16	5.3	16	3.7
average	4	17	-6	16	5.3	16	3.7
2011	2	18	-6	14	7.2	21	4.3

Gardner projects to be a bit better offensively in 2012 than he was in 2011, but also projects to give back a bit of his other value. CAIRO is low on his playing time and Oliver’s low since it doesn’t park adjust, so I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think he’ll be worth close to 4 WAR in 2012. That would make him the second most valuable Yankee position player of the ones we’ve looked at so far. On a team where far too many players are either being paid for what they were worth years ago or are being paid far more than they were ever worth, Gardner’s one of the biggest bargains in baseball.

Not bad for a guy who didn’t look to have much of a chance at a meaningful major league career, huh?

Update: More on Gardner vs. a typical AL LF.

2009-2011	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gardner	1441	1235	232	331	45	21	15	106	122	27	165	234	.268	.355	.375	.730
Avg AL LF	1441	1291	178	340	67	9	40	164	38	13	118	266	.264	.327	.421	.748

2009-2011	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	lwH	lw2B	lw3B	lwHR	lwBB+HBP	lwSB+CS	lwGDP	lwROE	lwOuts
Gardner	463	14	16	19	6	2	15	156	17	12	14	60	17	-1	7	-90
Avg AL LF	544	24	13	8	10	4	14	160	25	5	37	43	3	-2	7	-95

2009-2011	BR	BR/PA
Gardner	190	.132
Avg AL LF	183	.127

lwH: linear weights value of all hits
lw2B: linear weights value of all 2B
lw3B: linear weights value of all 3B
lwHR: linear weights value of all HR
lwBB+HBP: linear weights value of BB and HBP
lwSB+CS: linear weights values of SB and CS
lwGDP: linear weights value of double plays
lwROE: linear weights value of reaching on an error
lwOuts: linear weights value of all outs made, excluding CS and GDP
BR: linear weights batting runs
BR/PA: BR per PA

Since I think people underrate Gardner’s offense because he doesn’t hit homers, here’s a granular breakdown that compares the linear weights values for Gardner vs. the average LF pro-rated to Gardner’s playing time over the past three years. You can see where Gardner is worse than his peers and where he outshines them quite clearly in this manner.

You can ignore defense and non-SB baserunning all you want, and Gardner has still been better than an average AL LF over the last three years. You can blame DNYS, but Gardner’s probably not one who derives any benefit from playing there (career OPS of .716 at home vs. 726 on the road).

--Posted at 9:06 am by SG / 54 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Looking Ahead to 2012 - Alex Rodriguez

You can make the case that no player is going to be more important to the Yankees’ chance of winning the World Series this year than Alex Rodriguez. His health and his performance could be the difference between a great season for the team and a bad one.

2011
Last year Rodriguez had a strong spring training, hitting .388/.444/.898 with six homers. He looked healthy and carried that into the regular season, where he hit .321/.452/.696 through his first 17 games. Unfortunately, it was not sustainable as he proceeded to hit .289/.343/.438 until July 7, at which point it was determined that he needed knee surgery and he was placed on the DL. Rodriguez returned on August 21 and finished up the year by hitting a WOE-ful .191/.345/.353.

It was a disappointing season, particularly when compared to his 2010 and his 2011 projections entering the season.

projection	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	HBP	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650
2010	595	522	141	29	2	30	59	3	98	.270	.341	.506	.360	88	96
avg 2011 proj	428	368	101	18	1	23	50	6	78	.274	.365	.511	.377	67	102
2011	428	373	103	21	0	16	47	5	80	.276	.362	.461	.360	61	92
delta		5	2	3	-1	-7	-3	-1	2	.002	-.003	-.050	-.016	-7	-10

By pro-rating his average projection to his actual 2011 PA we can see that the primary problem was the lower home run rate. Most of his other stats were right around where they projected to be on a rate basis.

There was some good news in 2011. Rodriguez had what might have been his best defensive season at 3B. Zone rating had him at about 10 runs saved compared to average, UZR had him around 8, Plus/Minus had him around 9 and Totalzone had him around 7. Rodriguez is more valuable if he can play a good 3B, although given the ongoing concerns with his health it may not be the best way to maximize his availability.

So what might be in store for 2012? Funny you should ask…

Offensive Projections

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
cairo	459	398	65	109	21	1	19	78	6	2	53	82	10	5	.273	.364	.474	.365	67	95	30
davenport	476	418	62	113	22	1	21	72	5	3	55	86	10	4	.270	.361	.478	.367	69	95	29
marcel	474	412	63	110	21	1	20	78	7	2	51	86	10	5	.267	.350	.468	.355	67	92	29
oliver	523	457	66	121	23	1	22	73	5	2	56	91	12	5	.265	.348	.464	.353	72	90	30
pecota	572	499	80	137	24	1	30	84	9	2	67	112	12	6	.275	.368	.507	.379	90	102	44
zips	466	405	61	107	20	1	21	81	7	2	51	89	11	5	.264	.350	.474	.357	66	93	29
average	495	429	70	117	22	1	22	78	6	2	55	91	11	5	.273	.359	.481	.362	73	96	33
2011	428	373	67	103	21	0	16	62	4	1	47	80	13	5	.276	.362	.461	.360	61	92	26
2011 AL	428	384	50	99	20	2	11	48	8	3	35	77	9	4	.258	.323	.408	.319	49	75

For more information about the projections above, you can read the first post in this series.

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

I’ve included his 2011 and the league average line for his 2011 PA as frames of reference. I haven’t adjusted league average for DNYS, so mentally adjust that upwards to account for the way it boosts offense.

Geez, PECOTA loves it some A-Rod, huh? Most of the other projections are bunched together pretty closely and are probably more realistic as a baseline. Even if that’s the case, they’re good projections on a rate basis. The larger concern is going to be how often he can play. I don’t think an Eric Chavez/Eduardo Nunez contingency plan will be much better than replacement level, so if you look at his average offensive projection pro-rated to different amounts of playing time you can get a feel for the impact.

100 PA: 7 BRAR
200 PA: 13 BRAR
300 PA: 20 BRAR
400 PA: 27 BRAR
500 PA: 33 BRAR
600 PA: 40 BRAR
700 PA: 46 BRAR

CAIRO Percentiles Forecast
I can’t stomach the fact that PECOTA changed it’s underlying components and assumptions in a bunch of ways to make Rodriguez look better than CAIRO, so here’s where I can fix that.

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
80%	597	517	95	155	33	2	31	113	11	1	78	95	10	10	.299	.420	.550	.415	109	119	61
65%	528	457	80	131	27	1	25	95	8	1	65	89	9	7	.286	.398	.512	.390	87	107	44
Baseline	459	398	65	109	21	1	19	78	6	2	53	82	10	5	.273	.375	.474	.365	67	95	30
35%	413	358	55	93	17	0	15	66	4	2	44	78	11	6	.260	.358	.437	.344	54	84	20
20%	367	318	46	79	13	0	12	56	3	3	37	73	11	6	.247	.341	.399	.322	41	73	12

I have a hunch that a healthy Rodriguez just might hit somewhere between that 65% and 80% forecast. What I don’t have a hunch on is whether a healthy Alex Rodriguez even exists any more. But WTH, it’s spring training. Let’s go with it. If Rodriguez hits that 80% forecast and gets 700 PA his line would look like this.

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
80%	700	606	112	182	39	3	36	133	13	1	92	112	12	11	.299	.420	.550	.415	128	119	71

That probably makes him the AL MVP.

Base Running

Year	gaR	aaR	haR	oaR	SBR	BRR
2008	0.6	0.1	1.2	0.2	-0.12	1.9
2009	2.7	-1.0	-1.7	0.0	1.15	1.1
2010	0.9	0.3	-1.6	0.0	-0.03	-0.5
2011	0.8	1.5	-0.3	-0.2	-0.06	1.8
Projection	1.2	0.5	-0.8	0.0	0.2	1.0

Rodriguez doesn’t steal bases much any more, which is probably prudent since it reduces his injury risk. He still runs the bases pretty well overall though.

Defense

pos		Inn	DRS	UZR	TZ	ZR	avg
3B		967	0	1	-1	1	0

DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating

Rodriguez’s great defensive season in 2012 doesn’t quite make up for the fact that he was below average for the prior four seasons, but it has improved his projection to about average. For comparison’s sake, he projected at around -4 heading into 2011.

Value

Projection	RAA	Rep	Pos	RAR	BRR	Def	WAR
cairo	14	14	2	30	0.8	0	3.1
marcel	12	15	2	29	0.8	0	3.0
oliver	12	16	2	30	0.8	0	3.1
pecota	24	18	2	44	0.8	0	4.5
zips	12	15	2	29	0.8	0	3.0
average	16	16	2	33	0.8	0	3.4
2011	11	13	2	26	1.9	9	3.7

I realize I sound like a broken record, or should I say a corrupted MP3 file, at this point, but it really all comes down to how often Rodriguez can play this year. He’s not what he used to be, but he still projects as one of the Yankees’ top three offensive players. If the Raul Ibanez experiment doesn’t work, Rodriguez as the DH vs. RHP with Eric Chavez at 3B might be the best alignment the Yankees can use vs. RHP since Rodriguez has a pretty small projected platoon split (wOBA of .371 vs. LHP and .363 RHP).

I was contemplating what kind of contract Rodriguez would have gotten if he were a free agent this past offseason? If I project Rodriguez out through the end of his contract in CAIRO, here’s how it looks.

edit: Updated Table

Year	Age	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAR
2012	37	459	398	65	109	21	1	19	78	6	2	53	82	10	5	.274	.364	.475	.365	67	30
2013	38	436	378	54	101	19	1	16	65	6	2	47	80	10	5	.267	.349	.446	.347	59	23
2014	39	414	359	42	94	17	1	12	51	5	2	43	83	9	5	.263	.342	.417	.334	51	18
2015	40	394	341	33	88	15	1	10	40	4	2	39	85	9	4	.259	.334	.393	.321	45	14
2016	41	374	324	26	83	13	1	8	31	3	2	35	88	8	4	.256	.327	.372	.310	40	11
2017	42	355	308	20	78	11	1	6	25	3	2	32	91	8	4	.252	.320	.355	.301	35	8
		2432	2109	356	553	96	5	70	289	26	11	248	508	53	26	.262	.341	.413	.332	296	104

If you use that with an estimated defensive decline of 1.5 runs per season, here’s a look at Rodriguez’s projected WAR, Value (assuming $5M per win) and salary.

edit: Updated table

Year	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	Total
WAR	3.0	2.2	1.5	1.0	0.5	0.1	8.2
Value	$15	$11	$8	$5	$2	$0	$41
Salary	$29	$28	$25	$21	$20	$20	$143

If this is how the rest of his career plays out, a fair market deal is probably 6 years and $41M. Is an overpayment of $102M bad? It’s probably not as bad as a $36M overpayment and a lost draft pick for zero value, speaking hypothetically. But I digress…

I’ve been negligent in fulfilling my pie chart duties of late, so here’s one that compares the average projected value for all of the remaining seasons to the average salary owed.

If Rodriguez’s career does play out the way this projection says it will, he’ll end up with a career line that looks like this.

edit: Updated table

PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG
10634	9199	1824	2775	495	29	629	1893	305	73	1166	1916	222	157	.302	.385	.567
2432	2109	356	553	96	5	70	289	26	11	248	508	53	26	.262	.341	.413
13066	11308	2180	3328	591	34	699	2182	331	84	1414	2424	275	183	.294	.377	.538

Here’s the same thing, but with two additional scenarios. In the first one he hits his 65% forecast in 2012 and in the second one he hits his 80% forecast.

edit: Updated table.

2012_%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG
Baseline	13066	11308	2180	3328	591	34	699	2182	331	84	1414	2424	275	183	.294	.377	.538
65%	13560	11732	2604	3469	622	37	724	2270	341	81	1503	2497	277	197	.296	.381	.540
80%	13826	11962	2834	3565	646	41	742	2325	351	77	1556	2515	271	209	.298	.385	.545

It’s looking less and less likely to me that Rodriguez will catch Hank Aaron or Barry Bonds. Then again, now that he’s got the scarlet S on his chest I don’t know that passing them would be worth as much as it would have been if he were ‘clean.’

I have to admit that a small part of me still thinks we may see an MVP-caliber season out of Rodriguez this year followed up by a better than expected decline through the end of his contract. It’s not likely, but it’s possible.

--Posted at 11:03 pm by SG / 42 Comments | - (0)

Looking Ahead to 2012 - Derek Jeter

Today we’ll look at the multiple Gold Glove award-winning shortstop and captain of the Yankees.

2011
Jeter followed up his career-worst 2010 season by hitting .260/.324/.324 with a ground ball percentage of roughly 99.9999%* through June 13 before winding up on the disabled list with a strained calf. Jeter returned from the DL on July 4 and hit .331/.384/.447 to finish the season, flirting with .300 until the last day of the season. Oh, and he hit some round number milestone of some sort.

*estimated

Despite that hot finish to the season, Jeter didn’t really hit any better than he projected to overall heading into 2011.

projection	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	HBP	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650
2010	739	663	179	30	3	10	63	8	77	.270	.340	.370	.319	82	72
avg 2011 proj	607	543	154	23	2	11	52	5	65	.283	.351	.394	.332	73	78
2011	607	546	162	24	4	6	46	12	96	.297	.353	.388	.330	72	77
delta		3	8	1	2	-5	-6	7	31	.013	.002	-.006	-.002	-1	-1

He traded some walks and HRs for singles and HBP but the end result was a .297/.353/.388 line that was essentially the same as his average projected line of .283/.351/.394.

Offensive Projections

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
cairo	581	519	82	149	22	1	8	56	16	5	46	83	14	6	.286	.347	.384	.325	67	75	25
davenport	560	510	72	147	27	2	9	54	14	4	46	73	13	4	.288	.354	.402	.336	69	80	25
marcel	577	518	79	147	23	2	9	54	16	5	47	83	13	5	.284	.347	.388	.327	68	76	25
oliver	635	574	73	162	25	3	8	60	14	5	49	85	17	5	.282	.342	.378	.321	71	73	24
pecota	694	632	82	180	28	3	9	66	18	6	56	106	16	6	.285	.351	.382	.328	81	76	30
zips	598	542	78	145	22	4	7	58	14	5	46	84	13	6	.268	.331	.362	.310	63	68	19
average	607	543	86	156	25	3	8	58	15	5	48	85	14	5	.286	.346	.386	.325	71	76	26
2011	607	546	84	162	24	4	6	61	16	6	46	81	10	6	.297	.353	.388	.330	72	77	27
2011 AL	607	545	71	140	28	3	16	68	11	4	49	109	12	5	.258	.323	.408	.319	70	75

For more information about the projections above, you can read the first post in this series.

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

I’ve included his 2011 and the league average line for his 2011 PA as frames of reference. I haven’t adjusted league average for DNYS, so keep that in mind.

The projections expect Jeter to be roughly the same as he was in 2011, which is fine for a shortstop on offense. Unfortunately for Jeter, the algorithm that makes Yankees better in CAIRO hates Jeter so it makes him worse.

CAIRO Percentiles Forecast

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
80%	610	545	96	169	28	3	12	67	21	3	55	77	12	9	.310	.394	.438	.365	89	95	44
65%	592	530	88	158	25	2	10	61	18	4	50	80	11	7	.298	.375	.411	.345	78	85	34
Baseline	581	519	82	149	22	1	8	56	16	5	46	83	14	6	.286	.356	.384	.325	67	75	25
35%	522	467	70	128	18	1	6	47	12	5	38	78	14	6	.274	.341	.356	.308	54	67	15
20%	464	416	58	109	14	0	4	39	9	5	31	73	14	7	.263	.327	.329	.291	41	58	7

It took a .390 BABIP after his return from the DL for Jeter to hit how he did to finish the year. I don’t think that’s sustainable over a full season, but I could see him hitting near .300. I fear his power is gone though and it ain’t coming back, so I don’t see him slugging much higher than that baseline.

Base Running

Year	gaR	aaR	haR	oaR	SBR	BRR
2008	-0.8	0.6	1.8	0.0	0.67	2.3
2009	-1.3	0.0	1.1	0.0	-0.35	-0.7
2010	1.0	1.2	-0.2	-0.4	1.07	2.6
2011	-2.0	-0.2	-0.2	0.1	-0.21	-2.5
Projection	-0.8	0.3	0.2	-0.1	0.2	-0.1

Jeter had the worst base running season of his career in 2011, but I don’t think that means we should expect him to be equally bad this year. It does probably mean that he’s at the point where he doesn’t really add extra value on the base paths.

Defense
It’s time for point/counterpoint.

Point: I could give you a bunch of fancy numbers, but if you people would take your heads out of your spreadsheets and watch the games you’d know that Jeter is a Gold Glove shortstop who makes spectacular plays all the time. Ballparking it, I’d say he’s like a +20 defender.
Counterpoint:

pos		Inn	DRS	UZR	TZ	ZR	avg
SS		1204	-11	-3	-7	-8	-7

DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating

Value
See if you can guess whether or not Jeter is overpaid relative to his on-field value before looking at the next chart. If you guess right, you get the satisfaction of being right.

Projection	RAA	Rep	Pos	RAR	BRR	Def	WAR
cairo	0	18	6	25	-0.4	-7	1.7
marcel	1	18	6	25	-0.4	-7	1.8
oliver	-3	20	7	24	-0.4	-7	1.7
pecota	1	22	7	30	-0.4	-7	2.2
zips	-7	19	6	19	-0.4	-7	1.1
average	1	19	7	26	-0.4	-7	1.9
2011	2	19	7	27	-2.3	-10	1.5

Did you guess right?

Jeter projects to be roughly as good as he was last year this year offensively, so even if he is closer to -10 defensively than that projected -7 he’s probably still the best choice for Yankee SS in 2012. That being said, it is probably time to start thinking about who the next Yankee shortstop will be. If Jeter’s not replacement level now, he might be by this time next year.

I’d like to see Jeter get rested more frequently, particularly against RHP. I don’t really care about him batting leadoff against all pitching since the numbers say it doesn’t really matter.

I was goofing around with TGS’s implementation of Bill James’s Favorite Toy, which is a crude way to estimate a player’s career ending total in a particular stat. It says Jeter would end up with 3569 hits, which would rank him sixth all-time. That may be a little optimistic, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to see him getting the 227 hits he’ll need to crack the top 10 before hanging ‘em up, and that’d be pretty cool.

--Posted at 8:28 am by SG / 34 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Looking Ahead to 2012 - Robinson Cano

Today we’ll look at the guy who might be the best Yankee position player now, Robinson Cano.

2011
After putting up a season in 2010 that placed him third in AL MVP balloting, it was probably a safe assumption that Cano wasn’t going to be quite as good in 2011. A funny thing happened on his way to regression though.

projection	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	HBP	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650
2010	696	626	200	41	3	29	57	8	77	.319	.381	.534	.393	115	107
avg 2011 proj	681	628	189	41	3	24	42	6	75	.301	.348	.491	.361	98	94
2011	681	623	188	46	7	28	38	12	96	.302	.349	.533	.375	108	103
delta		-5	-1	5	4	4	-4	6	21	.001	.002	.042	.014	10	10

Although Cano’s triple slash line wasn’t quite as good as his 2010, he was closer to 2010 than he was to his average projection. A higher percentage of his hits were extra-base hits, he stole five more bases than he had in 2010 despite being caught the same number of times and he got four additional HBP. Cano was reasonably consistent for most of the season although he dipped a bit in May and June. What I didn’t realize was that he hit .315/.363/.592 over the last two months of the season. No, he still doesn’t walk much, but that’s pretty much the only flaw in his game and it’s far from a fatal one.

Offensive Projections

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
cairo	676	620	97	188	42	4	25	100	5	3	42	84	19	8	.303	.352	.504	.368	101	97	46
davenport	639	590	86	175	38	5	26	107	6	3	41	79	16	8	.297	.351	.510	.370	97	99	44
marcel	610	559	89	171	38	4	23	91	6	3	39	77	16	7	.306	.356	.512	.372	93	99	44
oliver	637	586	82	178	42	4	19	89	5	3	38	71	19	7	.304	.350	.486	.361	92	93	40
pecota	708	659	93	194	43	4	24	99	5	3	41	88	19	8	.295	.344	.482	.357	100	92	43
zips	663	609	92	182	41	5	25	103	6	3	40	76	19	8	.299	.347	.506	.365	99	97	45
average	655	601	94	182	41	4	24	98	6	3	40	79	18	8	.303	.351	.502	.365	98	97	45
2011	681	623	104	188	46	7	28	118	8	2	38	96	18	12	.302	.349	.533	.375	108	103	53
2011 AL	681	611	80	158	32	3	18	76	13	5	55	123	14	6	.258	.323	.408	.319	79	75

For more information about the projections above, you can read the first post in this series.

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

I’ve included his 2011 and the league average line for his 2011 PA as frames of reference. I haven’t adjusted league average for DNYS, so factor in the fact that you would generally expect a league average hitter to be better if he played half his games there. Interestingly, Cano’s actually been the same hitter on the road (.310/.360/.532) and at DNYS(.318/.361/.525) since it opened in 2009.

Most projections regress batting average more than most other stats because there’s a fair amount of volatility in it. That affects someone like Cano more than it would affect someone who’s value is a bit less reliant on getting those singles and doubles to fall in. Despite that, Cano still projects as an offensive force, although there’s some expected fall off from 2011. It’s hard to believe that this will be Cano’s age 29 season. While I don’t foresee a decline in the near-term, it’s looming in the background.

CAIRO Percentiles Forecast

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
80%	709	651	112	211	50	7	31	115	8	2	51	78	16	11	.325	.399	.567	.409	128	117	70
65%	689	632	104	198	46	5	28	107	7	3	47	81	15	9	.314	.381	.536	.388	114	107	58
Baseline	676	620	97	188	42	4	25	100	5	3	42	84	19	8	.303	.363	.504	.368	101	97	46
35%	608	558	83	163	35	3	20	85	4	4	35	79	19	8	.292	.350	.473	.350	82	88	33
20%	540	496	70	139	28	2	16	72	2	4	29	74	18	9	.280	.337	.441	.333	66	79	22

It would really not surprise me to see Cano have any of those lines in 2012. That 65% line is basically his 2010 and seems well within reach. His 2008 is still dragging down some of his projections, but that shouldn’‘t be an issue after this season.

Base Running
Before I looked at these numbers, I assumed Cano is not a good base runner.

Year	gaR	aaR	haR	oaR	SBR	BRR
2008	-1.6	-0.1	0.7	0.2	-0.23	-1.2
2009	1.2	0.7	-0.1	0.0	-1.09	0.7
2010	-0.8	0.5	0.9	0.0	-0.53	0.1
2011	0.7	1.2	0.9	0.0	0.01	2.8
Projection	0.1	0.7	0.7	0.0	-0.4	1.2

That’s a bit surprising to me. I think 2011 is probably a fluke but I guess we should assume Cano’s a roughly average base runner.

Defense

pos		Inn	DRS	UZR	TZ	ZR	avg
2B		1375	5	-2	3	-6	0

DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating

I really don’t know why the metrics have such divergent views on Cano’s defense. In 2011 he was -10 in zone rating, +5 in DRS, -5 in UZR and -2 in TotalZone. The net is that he projects around average. He looks better than that at times and worse than that at times. Sometimes in the same inning.

Value

Projection	RAA	Rep	Pos	RAR	BRR	Def	WAR
cairo	23	21	2	46	1.6	0	4.8
marcel	23	19	2	44	1.6	0	4.6
oliver	18	20	2	40	1.6	0	4.2
pecota	18	22	3	43	1.6	0	4.5
zips	22	21	2	45	1.6	0	4.7
average	22	21	2	45	1.6	0	4.6
2011	29	21	2	53	2.8	-3	5.3

Finally, the CAIRO Yankee bump rears its ugly head.

A 4.5 win player is probably an All Star. A 5+ win player is generally a reasonable MVP candidate, and it’s certainly not wishful thinking to think Cano can be one in 2012. I don’t think that there’s a Yankee position player who will project better than him in 2012.

It’s been a lot of fun watching Cano develop from where he was in 2004 to where he is now. In the back of my mind I worry about his long-term outlook given the past history of how other 2B have aged, and that’s probably something that will bear watching as the Yankees consider what to do with him after current contract is up after the 2013 season. According to Baseball Reference, his 10 most similar players averaged 14.7 WAR from age 29 through the ends of their career. That’s not necessarily predictive since the similarity scores don’t account for era and park, but it’s at least something to consider.

I’m not going to worry about that now. I’m just going to enjoy watching one of the top two or three offensive second basemen in baseball ripping line drives all over the field with some bombs mixed in.

--Posted at 7:25 am by SG / 34 Comments | - (0)

Monday, February 27, 2012

Looking Ahead to 2012 - Mark Teixeira

Next up, it’s Mark Teixeira.

2011
For the second straight year, Teixeira declined, as he hit a career low .248, which combined with his lowest walk rate since 2005 gave him the second lowest OBP of his career. Texeira hit for a bit more power than he had in 2010 as measured by ISO (SLG - AVG), but was still below where he was in 2009.

Here’s how Teixeira’s 2011 performance compared to his average 2011 projection adjusted to the same number of PA.

projection	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	HBP	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650
average	684	583	161	37	1	34	86	10	114	.276	.376	.515	.384	110	104
2011	684	589	146	26	1	39	76	11	110	.248	.341	.494	.358	99	94
delta		6	-15	-11	0	5	-10	1	-4	-.028	-.035	-.021	-.026	-11	-10

So he hit 11 fewer doubles and 9 fewer singles, while adding 5 HRs. He also walked 10 fewer times than expected. The chief culprit here was the big drop in Teixeira’s BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Teixeira had a career low BABIP of .239. The defensive shift teams play on him is at least part of that, but he’s gone from a .302 BABIP in 2009 to a .268 BABIP in 2010 to a .239 BABIP in 2011. When I see something like that, my first impulse is to think that we’re seeing a trend, but things that appear to be trends in baseball are often just random fluctuations.

I thought it might be useful to look at players who’ve seen a similar drop in BABIP and what it meant for their careers. So I pulled a list of all players since 1990 who had at least 300 AB in a season and then looked for the ones who had exhibited a similar overall drop in BABIP over a three year stretch and found what they did in the fourth year.

Teixeira’s gone from a BABIP of .302 to .269 over the past thee years, a drop of .063, so I looked at all players who had at least a .050 drop in BABIP over a three year stretch, which gave me a list of 155 players. I won’t put the list on this post, but you can look at it via this link.

Of those 155 players, 120 had a better BABIP in year four than they had in year three. On average, players on this list improved on their year three BABIP by about .027. I’ll note the caveat that there’s some selection bias in here because if a player didn’t improve on his BABIP in year four he would have had a harder time getting another 300 AB. But I think this is pretty good evidence that Teixeira can recover some of those missing hits in 2012. For whatever it’s worth, if you add .027 BABIP to Teixeira’s 2011 he’d have 8 more singles and 4 more doubles, and would move from a line of .248/.341/.494 to a line of .268/.379/.521 which is about as close to his average 2011 projection of .276/.376/.515 as you could hope for.

Anyway, I’ve rambled on long enough about 2011, so on to 2012!

Offensive Projections

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
cairo	692	594	98	156	34	1	33	109	3	1	81	113	14	11	.263	.359	.493	.368	104	97	33
davenport	656	570	90	150	31	2	35	103	3	2	75	112	12	11	.263	.360	.509	.375	101	100	27
marcel	613	528	85	137	29	1	30	94	3	1	69	103	12	10	.259	.352	.489	.363	90	95	27
oliver	647	560	80	142	32	1	28	92	1	1	71	101	13	10	.254	.345	.464	.351	89	89	23
pecota	700	604	98	164	35	1	34	100	2	1	85	122	14	11	.271	.371	.501	.379	109	101	37
zips	655	562	88	148	32	1	32	109	2	1	76	112	13	11	.263	.359	.495	.368	98	97	31
average	661	567	94	149	32	1	32	101	2	1	76	110	13	11	.263	.357	.494	.367	99	97	31
2011	684	589	90	146	26	1	39	111	4	1	76	110	12	11	.248	.345	.494	.358	99	94	29
2011 AL	684	614	80	158	32	3	18	76	13	5	55	123	14	6	.258	.323	.408	.319	79	75

For more information about the projections above, you can read the first post in this series.

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

The projections are all in the same general area. They expect Teixeira to be a bit better in 2012. It appears that PECOTA takes CAIRO and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make Teixeira look better.

CAIRO Percentiles Forecast

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
80%	727	624	113	177	41	2	41	126	5	0	95	107	11	15	.284	.407	.556	.410	130	116	56
65%	706	606	105	166	37	2	37	117	4	1	87	110	11	13	.274	.389	.525	.389	116	107	44
Baseline	692	594	98	156	34	1	33	109	3	1	81	113	14	11	.263	.370	.493	.368	104	97	33
35%	623	534	84	135	28	1	28	94	2	1	69	106	14	11	.253	.357	.461	.350	85	89	21
20%	554	475	70	115	22	0	22	79	1	2	58	99	14	11	.242	.343	.429	.333	68	80	12

I know batting average isn’t all that meaningful, but it would be nice to see Teixeira hit in the .275-.280 range. But I wouldn’t bet on it. That being said, I wouldn’t be suprised to see him hit that 65% forecast.
Base Running

Year	gaR	aaR	haR	oaR	SBR	BRR
2008	-0.2	0.2	-1.4	0.1	0	-1.3
2009	-4.7	-0.2	1.0	0.0	0.08	-3.8
2010	-1.5	-1.3	0.3	0.3	0	-2.2
2011	-1.2	-0.7	-1.5	0.0	0	-3.3
Projection	-1.9	-0.7	-0.4	0.1	0.0	-2.9

I don’t really think of Teixeira as a bad base runner, but he appears to be below average. We’ll have to see if he’ll be the one to carry on the torch of base ruining so ably handled by Jorge Posada.

Defense

Teixeira’s got a good defensive reputation and makes some good plays, but is probably overrated a bit by the average fan and writer. I don’t think he has great range, but he’s got a good arm and makes some nice plays. He projects as solidly above average in all of the various different defensive metrics I am using here.

Inn	DRS	UZR	TZ	ZR	avg
1281	2	4	5	4	4

DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating

These numbers are based on a weighted average of the past five seasons, with some regression towards the mean. For 1B, the metrics don’t include scooping or foul popups but it shouldn’t make much of a difference. Maybe a run in either direction.

Value
So what’s Teixeira’s projected worth given the above?

Projection	RAA	Rep	Pos	RAR	BRR	Def	WAR
cairo	24	22	-12	33	-2.9	4	3.4
marcel	19	19	-11	27	-2.9	4	2.9
oliver	14	20	-12	23	-2.9	4	2.4
pecota	28	22	-13	37	-2.9	4	3.9
zips	22	21	-12	31	-2.9	4	3.2
average	22	21	-12	31	-2.9	4	3.2
2011	20	21	-12	29	-3.3	3	2.9

Teixeira’s being paid more as a 4 win player ($22.5M this year) than a 3 win player. So let’s hope PECOTA is closer than the others.

I don’t know what I expect out of Teixeira in 2012. To be honest, the more I think about it, the more concerned I am about the Yankees’ offense this year. I can envision scenarios where the Yankees get less offense than expected out of just about every position but 2B and CF. That makes Teixeira even more important.

Hopefully he’s up to it.

--Posted at 6:57 am by SG / 53 Comments | - (0)

Friday, February 24, 2012

Looking Ahead to 2012 - Russell Martin

With spring training ramping up, it’s time to start looking at the Yankees’ projections for 2012. I always start off with the starting catcher, which means for the second year in a row we start with Russell Martin.

With Jorge Posada officially gone, Yankee fans are going to have to come to grips with the fact that they won’t get premium offense from their catchers, at least in 2012. That doesn’t mean Martin won’t hit well enough to be an asset, but he is not and probably will never be as good as Posada was.

2011

Martin had a torrid start to start the season. He hit .293/.376/.587 over his 85 April PA, with 6 HRs. He did that with a perfectly reasonable batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Unfortunately, he could not sustain that performance over the rest of the season, as he hit .225/.313/.368 with a .246 BABIP.

If you compare what Martin did to his 2011 projections, he was about as productive as projected, although the shape was different (lower in AVG and OBP, higher on SLG). If you factor in the slightly lower run environment then he was probably better than that.

Offense
So while we should not expect Martin to hit like Posada, what is a reasonable expectation? We can look at that using the following projections:

Here’s how these look for Martin.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
cairo	511	443	60	112	19	0	13	54	9	3	59	81	15	6	.253	.348	.383	.329	59	76	26
davenport	434	382	48	100	19	1	14	41	7	3	46	67	14	5	.262	.349	.427	.343	55	83	20
marcel	477	416	54	103	17	0	11	50	9	3	51	76	14	6	.248	.336	.368	.317	52	71	20
oliver	495	431	54	105	19	0	11	49	7	3	53	72	16	7	.244	.334	.364	.315	53	69	20
pecota	534	463	66	123	21	1	13	54	11	4	64	78	16	7	.265	.363	.399	.343	67	81	32
zips	488	422	60	105	17	0	13	58	10	4	58	76	15	6	.249	.347	.382	.328	57	75	24
average	490	425	57	108	19	0	13	51	9	3	55	75	15	6	.253	.345	.388	.329	57	76	25
2011	476	417	57	99	17	0	18	65	8	2	50	81	19	5	.237	.326	.408	.323	55	75	24
2011 AL	476	427	56	110	22	2	12	53	9	3	38	86	9	4	.258	.323	.408	.319	55	75

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

There’s a fair bit of range in these projections. Oliver and Marcel don’t park-adjust so they’re probably a little low. The consensus paints a picture of a player who’d be worth about 24 runs more than a replacement level catcher offensively, which seems about right.

Since projections are basically an estimate of a player’s talent with big error bars it can be helpful to look at a range of projections built off the baseline, which I can do by showing percentile forecasts for CAIRO. Here are Martin’s.

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
80%	562	488	74	135	25	1	18	67	13	2	73	79	13	9	.277	.400	.443	.373	83	96	46
65%	536	465	67	123	22	1	15	60	11	3	66	81	12	8	.265	.379	.413	.351	71	86	36
Baseline	511	443	60	112	19	0	13	54	9	3	59	81	15	6	.253	.358	.383	.329	59	76	26
35%	460	399	50	96	15	0	10	45	7	4	50	77	15	7	.241	.342	.353	.310	47	66	16
20%	409	355	42	81	12	0	7	37	5	4	41	72	15	7	.229	.326	.323	.292	36	57	9

Martin’s baseline is probably what I’d expect in 2012.

Base Running
Martin is a pretty good base runner for a catcher, if you believe the base running stats from Baseball Prospectus.

Year	gaR	aaR	haR	oaR	SBR	BRR
2008	-0.1	0.4	1.7	0.0	-0.44	1.5
2009	1.1	0.7	1.0	0.2	-0.03	2.9
2010	0.5	-1.1	0.7	0.0	-0.15	-0.2
2011	-0.3	-0.5	-0.4	0.0	0.51	-0.7
Projection	0.2	-0.3	0.4	0.0	0.1	0.4

Martin doesn’t really add value with his base running, but at least he doesn’t lose any. We’ll have to pin our hopes for baseruining elsewhere with Jorge’s retirement.

Defense
Catcher defense is still a great unknown, but analysts are making inroads there. Mike Fast did a comprehensive study going back to 2007 on catcher pitch framing and according to that, Martin saved more runs for his pitchers than any catcher but Jose Molino at 71 runs over five seasons and 15 in 2011. If we’re projecting him for 2012 we probably need to regress that somewhat, but it’s probably fair to say that if the methodology used in the study was accurate Martin can save his team about 10 runs a season. He projects about average in terms of everything else (wild pitches, passed balls, stolen bases).

Value
So how much does Martin project to be worth? It depends on which projection(s) you look at it.

Projection	RAA	Rep	Pos	RAR	BRR	Def	WAR
cairo	0	16	9	26	0.3	10	3.6
marcel	-3	15	9	20	0.3	10	3.1
oliver	-4	16	9	20	0.3	10	3.0
pecota	5	17	10	32	0.3	10	4.2
zips	0	15	9	24	0.3	10	3.4
average	1	15	9	25	0.3	10	3.5
2011	0	15	9	24	-1.2	15	3.7

RAA: Runs above an average hitter, adjusted for park.
Rep: Replacement level adjustment (22 runs per 700 PA pro-rated to projected PA)
Pos: Position-adjustment
RAR: Runs above replacement (Rep + Pos)
BRR: Base running runs (does not include SB)
Def: Projected runs saved defensively
WAR: Wins above replacement (RAR + BRR + Def) divided by 10

A 3.5 win catcher is probably one of the top five in his league. That’s plenty good enough for a team with title aspirations.

Martin’s playing for his next contract, and probably his biggest potential pay day, so I’d expect him to be extra motivated this year. Whether it translates into his on-field performance is something we’ll just have to wait on.
I like Martin and was glad the Yankees picked him up last year. That being said, I can’t help but wonder if acquiring Martin eventually led to losing Jesus Montero. That’s not his fault though,

Time will tell how that works out.

--Posted at 6:56 am by SG / 95 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Deadspin: The Making Of “Homer At The Bat,” The Episode That Conquered Prime Time 20 Years Ago

On Feb. 20, 1992, more American homes tuned into The Simpsons than they did The Cosby Show or the Winter Olympics from Albertville, France. A foul-mouthed cartoon on a fourth-place network bested the Huxtables and the world’s best amateur athletes. Fox over NBC and CBS—its first-ever victory in prime time. New over old.

Why the shift? Well, the Olympic programming that night featured no marquee events, and Cosby was just two months away from ending its eight-season run. Meanwhile, The Simpsons, airing just its 52nd episode out of 500 (and counting), had put forth its most ambitious effort to date, an episode called “Homer at the Bat.” Months of work went into corralling nine baseball players, a cross-section of young stars and established veterans, to guest-star as members of a rec-league softball team.

A few months ago a reader emailed me with a suggestion for a post about this episode and how good the team might have been at the time. I was interested, but got tied with up CAIRO and non-blog stuff so never got around to it. So Geoff here you go.

The show aired on February 20, 1992 and the premise was basically that Mr. Burns wanted to guarantee a win in a softball game so he brought in nine ringers named Roger Clemens, Wade Boggs, Ken Griffey, Jr., Steve Sax, Ozzie Smith, José Canseco, Don Mattingly, Darryl Strawberry and Mike Scioscia.

So how good was that team in 1992? Let’s take a stab at it.

I could just use 1992 performance but you know that’s not the way I roll, so instead I’ll just use each player’s 1993 Marcel projection, available via Jeff Sackmann.

Player	AVG	OBP	SLG
Wade Boggs	.286	.373	.401
Ozzie Smith	.271	.349	.335
Don Mattingly	.278	.327	.388
Ken Griffey	.263	.332	.387
Jose Canseco	.260	.352	.493
Darryl Strawberry	.264	.349	.462
Steve Sax	.264	.316	.358
Mike Scioscia	.246	.321	.351
Roger Clemens	.173	.236	.207
Runs scored per game	4.48
Runs allowed per game	3.08
wpct	.679
W-L	110-52

So there you have it. They’d be almost as good as the 2011 Red Sox.

--Posted at 8:15 am by SG / 10 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

How Much Might A.J. Burnett Be Worth to Pittsburgh?

There’s been no reported change in the status of the Yankees discussing trading A.J. Burnett to the Pirates. According to Marc Carig the teams are deadlocked over the parameters of a potential deal.

The Yankees have already rejected a proposal in which the Pirates would have absorbed $10 million while sending a package of minor-leaguers for Burnett. But left-handed DH candidate Garrett Jones was never discussed, the person with knowledge said.

The Yankees, according the person with knowledge, are “fully prepared to have A.J. in camp,” if a deal can’t be arranged. However, the Pirates remain frontrunners in talks.

Two other teams are involved in trade talks for Burnett, and according to the person with knowledge, one of the teams is “very serious.” But that club is one of several on the West Coast included on Burnett’s no-trade list.

We know Burnett’s raw stats would probably look better in the NL, but I thought it might be instructive to look at two sets of CAIRO projections for Burnett.

Burnett as a Yankee

%	G	GS	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	HBP	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
80%	36	36	12	11	211	205	104	96	24	78	9	196	4.42	4.12	3.84	39	3.9
65%	34	34	11	11	200	201	105	98	25	79	10	179	4.73	4.41	4.18	30	3.0
Baseline	32	32	10	11	190	199	106	99	26	79	11	164	5.03	4.70	4.52	22	2.2
35%	26	26	7	10	152	165	90	84	23	67	10	126	5.33	4.99	4.86	13	1.3
20%	23	23	6	9	133	149	83	78	22	62	10	106	5.63	5.28	5.20	7	0.7

FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs saved above replacement level using RA
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)

Burnett as a Pirate

%	G	GS	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	HBP	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
80%	36	36	13	10	211	182	87	81	19	76	9	218	3.72	3.46	3.30	36	3.6
65%	34	34	11	11	200	179	89	83	20	77	10	199	4.01	3.74	3.62	28	2.8
Baseline	32	32	10	11	190	177	91	85	21	77	11	183	4.29	4.01	3.95	21	2.1
35%	26	26	8	9	152	147	77	72	19	65	10	141	4.57	4.28	4.27	12	1.2
20%	23	23	6	9	133	133	72	67	18	60	10	118	4.86	4.55	4.60	6	0.6

In terms of value there’s not much difference there. The values aren’t identical but they are close enough to basically be equivalent given the margin of error inherent in projections. Eyeballing the Pirates’ projections, Burnett would probably be their best starter assuming Erik Bedard can’t stay healthy, which is generally a safe assumption. If 2 WAR is close for Burnett in 2012, then we can probably assume something like 1-1.5 WAR in 2013, so he should be worth something like 3-3.5 WAR for Pittsburgh.

The problem is we don’t know how much a marginal win for Pittsburgh is worth to them. Accordign to my last projected standings Pittsburgh projected to win around 68 games. An earlier Marcel run said 72. Adding two wins to either total still leaves Pittsburgh well short of realistic contention although it probably boosts their odds of qualifying for the postseason by about 3%. If a marginal win is worth something like $5M to the Yankees, it may only be worth something like $3M to Pittsburgh.

If I were Pittsburgh, I’d hold steady at $10M. I don’t think Burnett’s worth more than that to them. My guess is the Yankees will eventually cave after trying to extract every last cent they can. $10M is probably worth more to them than having Burnett at this point.

--Posted at 10:37 am by SG / 65 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

NY Mag: Better Know a Yankee: Bill Hall (with Russell Branyan update)

Anyway, it’s a minor deal — non-guaranteed, with a chance to reach $600,000 if he makes the team — that will hinge mostly on whether the Yankees bring back Eric Chavez. Hall, as Joe Sheehan pointed out in his invaluable newsletter yesterday, is basically a cheaper version of Chone Figgins, a player he had recommended for the Yankees earlier. (He’d also, intriguingly, suggested seeing whether the White Sox would do an Adam Dunn–A.J. Burnett swap, straight up.) Hall will probably make the team, but it’s too early to tell. Also, pitchers and catchers report in eleven days.

I don’t see the sense in bringing back Chavez at this point, although a Hall/Chavez platoon at 3B in the event of Alex Rodriguez missing some time is probably better than just having Hall.

Player	Bats	PA	Projected wOBA	Vs L	Vs R	lRV	rRV	RV
Bill Hall	R	300	.293	.307	.287	10	16	26
Player	Bats	PA	Projected wOBA	Vs L	Vs R	lRV	rRV	RV
Bill Hall	R	100	.293	.307	.287	10	0	10
Eric Chavez	L	200	.295	.264	.308	0	20	18
Total		300				10	20	28

Vs L: Regressed projected wOBA vs. LHP.
Vs R: Regressed projected wOBA vs. RHP.
lRV: Run value vs. LHP
rRV: Run value vs. RHP
RV: Total run value

The difference between CAIRO’s platoon split wOBA projections in 300 PA of Hall vs. a 200 PA Chavez/100 PA Hall platoon is two runs.

On the other hand, the difference between 200 PA of Chavez vs. RHP and some of the remaining potential DH candidates looks like this.

Player	Bats	PA	Projected wOBA	Vs L	Vs R	RAC
Russell Branyan	L	200	.353	.324	.360	9
Raul Ibanez	L	200	.350	.324	.359	9
J.D. Drew	L	200	.345	.315	.355	8
Johnny Damon	L	200	.340	.324	.346	7
Hideki Matsui	L	200	.337	.323	.343	6
Eric Chavez	L	200	.295	.264	.308	0

RAC: Runs above Chavez over 200 PA vs. RHP.

CAIRO may be bullish on Ibanez considering how bad his 2011 was and given his age, but it seems to me the Yankees would be better off signing any one of the people on this list ahead of Chavez to DH. I wouldn’t be opposed to an NRI invite for Chavez in case Hall doesn’t make the team out of spring training, but I’d be surprised if Chavez would accept that if he’s considering retirement.

I get the feeling the Yankees will wind up with Ibanez as their LH DH although Russell Branyan seems like the best pure hitting candidate. Damon’s probably wants a full-time job and more money than the Yankees are willing to spend, and the other candidates have issues with age and health.

Update:Apparently the Yankees agree with me on Branyan after all.

NY Post: Yankees sign Branyan to minor league deal

The Yankees agreed to sign Russell Branyan to a minor league deal with an invitation to major league spring training Wednesday.

The move does not impact the team’s chances of adding another lefty bat and they remain in the hunt for Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Raul Ibanez.

But Branyan’s presence could make things more difficult for Eric Chavez, since the 36-year-old can play both corner infield positions.

I guess that’s technically true, although Branyan played 276 innings at 3B in 2008 and has played 3 innings there since.

Update Part Deux: Branyan’s CAIRO percentile forecasts

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAR
80%	407	355	53	96	23	1	26	62	4	0	55	99	3	6	.271	.387	.568	.412	75	22
65%	373	325	45	84	19	1	22	53	3	0	47	96	4	4	.257	.363	.523	.383	61	12
Baseline	339	296	38	72	16	0	18	45	2	0	40	92	5	3	.243	.338	.479	.353	48	4
35%	305	266	32	61	12	0	14	38	1	1	33	87	5	2	.228	.314	.434	.324	37	-3
20%	271	237	26	51	9	0	11	31	1	1	27	81	5	1	.214	.289	.389	.295	27	-8

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

%	wOBA vs L	wOBA vs R
80%	.377	.420
65%	.350	.390
Baseline	.324	.360
35%	.297	.331
20%	.271	.301

I approve.

--Posted at 12:26 pm by SG / 28 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

CAIRO 2012 v0.5 and More Somewhat Useless Projected Standings

I’ve uploaded the latest version of the 2012 MLB CAIRO projections. They can be downloaded here.

The only changes from version 0.4 were moving players who were signed/traded to their new teams. I think this will probably be the last release until right before Opening Day unless I find any issues.

I figured since I’ve updated again I’d run another set of projected standings so here is what they look like.

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
AL East	NYA	97	65	844	692	54.3%	22.5%	8.0%	84.8%
AL East	TAM	92	70	772	660	23.2%	27.4%	14.1%	64.8%
AL East	BOS	92	70	862	745	22.1%	27.0%	15.3%	64.4%
AL East	TOR	78	84	758	795	0.4%	1.2%	2.6%	4.1%
AL East	BAL	70	92	734	847	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
AL Central	DET	88	74	814	741	60.7%	1.6%	12.7%	75.0%
AL Central	CLE	84	78	763	729	32.1%	0.8%	9.5%	42.4%
AL Central	CHA	74	88	705	805	3.5%	0.2%	1.0%	4.7%
AL Central	KC	74	88	687	762	3.3%	0.0%	0.8%	4.1%
AL Central	MIN	67	95	720	861	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
AL West	TEX	92	70	812	695	51.2%	8.6%	17.0%	76.8%
AL West	LAA	91	71	741	653	47.0%	9.9%	16.6%	73.5%
AL West	OAK	76	86	685	735	0.7%	0.6%	1.7%	2.9%
AL West	SEA	74	88	673	729	1.2%	0.2%	1.0%	2.4%

AL	WC1	94
AL	WC2	91

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
NL East	PHI	92	70	701	605	60.8%	12.4%	9.1%	82.2%
NL East	WAS	86	76	676	625	18.6%	18.2%	9.1%	45.8%
NL East	ATL	85	77	700	676	13.2%	12.5%	11.0%	36.7%
NL East	FLA	82	80	708	699	7.3%	8.0%	7.1%	22.3%
NL East	NYN	75	87	670	733	0.3%	1.2%	1.8%	3.2%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
NL Central	STL	90	72	737	654	47.8%	12.4%	10.3%	70.5%
NL Central	CIN	87	75	715	665	27.3%	11.6%	12.1%	51.0%
NL Central	MIL	86	76	696	645	24.6%	12.3%	11.7%	48.6%
NL Central	CHN	71	91	650	745	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.5%
NL Central	PIT	68	94	649	764	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%
NL Central	HOU	60	102	584	773	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
NL West	SF	85	77	663	630	38.1%	3.1%	8.4%	49.5%
NL West	ARI	84	78	659	634	33.5%	3.6%	8.9%	46.1%
NL West	COL	81	81	761	759	18.3%	3.0%	6.6%	27.9%
NL West	SD	76	86	633	668	5.2%	0.8%	2.2%	8.2%
NL West	LAN	75	87	621	669	4.9%	0.7%	1.8%	7.3%

NL	WC1	90
NL	WC2	88

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card

These look more realistic to me than the last set I ran with Marcel. Probably a bit high on the Yankees, but since CAIRO was created to make the Yankees look better than they are that stands to reason.

I am a bit surprised that Washington now projects better than Atlanta, even if it’s just a one game edge. The only other major differences from this and the Marcel version is St. Louis at the top of the NL Central and San Francisco and Arizona above Colorado, both of which make sense to me.

Anyway, it’s still early, this is still not that useful, etc.,

--Posted at 9:58 am by SG / 43 Comments | - (0)

Monday, February 6, 2012

TGS NY: Is Brett leadoff hitter or caboose?

Jeter was the first Yankees batter of the game 96 times in 2011; in 49 of those games, he reached base in his first at-bat, either by hit or walk, and scored 17 times. Gardner was the first Yankee hitter in 57 games; he reached base in his first at-bat just 14 times, although he did come around to score 11 times.

Despite their difference in Wins Above Replacement—Jeter’s was 2.3, Gardner’s 5.1 according to FanGraphs, mostly because of his high defensive rating—Jeter was the winner of this WAR, and the discussion has hardly been raised this winter.

The Yankees’ best lineup last year seemed to be the one with Jeter leading off and Gardner hitting ninth.

And yet, there is a circumstance in which the Yankees might do better with Gardner batting first and Jeter second in 2012—when a right-hander is starting. In fact, that would probably cover close to two-thirds of the season.

Just like when this came up last year, I’m going to say it doesn’t really matter. Not if moving Brett Gardner to leadoff moves Derek Jeter to second instead of ninth. That doesn’t mean we can’t look at what the difference might be.

I just realized how close CAIRO’s projections for Jeter and Gardner are. Jeter’s projected to have a wOBA of .325 and Gardner’s at .324. Remember that I don’t include SB/CS in those numbers.

Regressed platoon splits would have Jeter at .348 vs. LHP and .317 vs. RHP. Gardner would be at .304 and .331 respectively.

The Yankees had 771 PA out of the leadoff spot in 2011 (compared to 624 at #9) and 64.8% of them came against RHP. If we assume a similar split in 2012, here’s how things would look.

Role	PA
Leadoff vs. RHP	500
Leadoff vs. LHP	271
#9 vs. RHP	404
#9 vs. LHP	220

Scenario #1: Jeter leads off against everyone and Gardner bats ninth against everyone.

Role	PA	Player	wOBA
Leadoff	771	Jeter	.325
#9	624	Gardner	.324
Total	1395	Overall	.325

Scenario #2: Jeter leads off vs. LHP, Gardner leads off vs. RHP.

Role	PA	Player	wOBA
Leadoff vs. RHP	500	Gardner	.331
Leadoff vs. LHP	271	Jeter	.348
#9 vs. RHP	404	Jeter	.317
#9 vs. LHP	220	Gardner	.304
Total	1395	Overall	.326

A leadoff platoon that would move Jeter to ninth vs. RHP is the absolute optimal scenario. If the Yankees did this they would gain something like .001 wOBA points out of the lead off spot over a full season, which would be worth about a bit less than one run.

But now figure that neither player is going to get every single PA of every single game, and that there will be platoon matchups later in games that will nullify some of the advantage. So maybe now you’re looking at more like no runs over the course of the year.

Now make Jeter the #2 hitter instead of the #9 hitter vs. RHP.

I’ll leave the conclusion as an exercise for you, the (mostly)intelligent readers of this blog.

--Posted at 8:40 am by SG / 24 Comments | - (0)

Monday, January 30, 2012

MLB Daily Dish: Yankees and Bill Hall in Serious Talks

Ken Rosenthal from FOX Sports says that the New York Yankees are in serious talks with utility man Bill Hall. Hall, 32, works out in the off season with New York Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long.

Hall had a rough 2011, but he’s had some good years in his career. CAIRO is not a fan of his.

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAR
80%	362	330	46	83	21	3	15	46	7	1	35	93	4	3	.251	.333	.464	.349	51	14
65%	332	302	39	72	17	2	12	39	6	1	29	90	5	2	.237	.310	.423	.321	40	6
Baseline	302	275	33	61	13	1	9	32	4	2	24	87	5	2	.223	.287	.381	.293	30	-1
35%	272	247	27	52	10	1	7	27	3	2	19	82	6	1	.208	.264	.340	.266	21	-6
20%	242	220	22	43	8	0	5	21	2	3	15	77	6	0	.194	.241	.299	.238	14	-11

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

I’m slotting him as a 3B here since that’s the position the Yankees will most likely need him most frequently for. The baseline projection is yucky, but the 65% forecast is fine and would make him an asset. If he’s used primarily against LHP that helps him get closer to that 65% forecast if you believe what his regressed platoon splits for wOBA say.

%	wOBA vs L	wOBA vs R
80%	.365	.341
65%	.336	.314
Baseline	.307	.287
35%	.278	.260
20%	.249	.233

He’s also versatile defensively, having played all over the field. Here are his defensive projections at the positions he’s played over the last four seasons.

player	pos	Inn	DRS	UZR	TZ	ZR	avg
Bill Hall	LF	160	-1	-1	0	-2	-1
Bill Hall	2B	248	-4	-4	-4	-3	-4
Bill Hall	CF	152	1	1	0	-1	0
Bill Hall	3B	370	1	1	3	2	2
Bill Hall	SS	36	1	0	0	0	0
Bill Hall	RF	69	1	-1	0	1	0

DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating

Sample size and defensive metric limitations apply as always, but he seems like he’s capable of playing passable defense all over the field.

He doesn’t address the Yankees’ need for a LH DH, but he does make the idea of a rotating DH more realistic since he can spell just about everyone on the field. Provided he comes cheap, he seems like a decent fit for this roster.

--Posted at 3:49 pm by SG / 77 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, January 28, 2012

Still Too Early 2012 MLB Standings Projection

Instead of running these with CAIRO this time I used Marcel, mainly out of curiosity in seeing what an unbiased projection that was not created to make the Yankees look better than they are would say.

It says this.

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
AL East	NYA	92	70	785	682	45.3%	20.3%	10.4%	76.0%
AL East	BOS	90	72	830	750	27.9%	26.1%	10.8%	64.8%
AL East	TAM	88	74	717	646	23.7%	21.2%	12.2%	57.1%
AL East	TOR	81	81	723	727	3.0%	6.9%	6.8%	16.7%
AL East	BAL	70	92	694	806	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
AL Central	DET	84	78	747	708	43.0%	2.4%	10.1%	55.4%
AL Central	CLE	83	79	722	708	30.6%	2.9%	7.8%	41.3%
AL Central	CHA	79	83	686	703	15.2%	1.5%	4.2%	20.9%
AL Central	KC	79	83	691	714	10.8%	1.9%	4.1%	16.9%
AL Central	MIN	68	94	693	813	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
AL West	LAA	87	75	719	663	43.7%	6.1%	11.4%	61.2%
AL West	TEX	87	75	765	707	38.2%	6.9%	13.4%	58.6%
AL West	OAK	82	80	682	674	14.9%	3.1%	7.4%	25.3%
AL West	SEA	76	86	649	689	3.2%	0.7%	1.6%	5.5%

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
NL East	PHI	90	72	689	615	44.8%	16.5%	10.7%	72.0%
NL East	ATL	89	73	668	608	38.2%	19.2%	9.9%	67.3%
NL East	WAS	83	79	645	634	10.8%	10.3%	8.1%	29.2%
NL East	FLA	80	82	682	690	5.7%	5.2%	5.4%	16.3%
NL East	NYN	74	88	630	680	0.6%	1.5%	1.2%	3.2%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
NL Central	CIN	89	73	719	647	60.4%	8.4%	10.9%	79.7%
NL Central	STL	84	78	708	681	24.6%	10.7%	7.0%	42.2%
NL Central	MIL	81	81	678	672	13.1%	6.7%	7.7%	27.5%
NL Central	PIT	72	90	657	732	1.6%	0.2%	1.0%	2.8%
NL Central	CHN	70	92	668	761	0.4%	0.2%	0.4%	1.0%
NL Central	HOU	66	96	617	749	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
NL West	COL	85	77	749	711	32.1%	6.4%	10.9%	49.4%
NL West	ARI	85	77	685	656	30.8%	7.3%	10.8%	48.9%
NL West	SF	85	77	629	606	29.6%	5.4%	11.3%	46.3%
NL West	LAN	76	86	618	659	4.1%	1.5%	2.7%	8.2%
NL West	SD	75	87	608	653	3.4%	0.6%	2.5%	6.4%

Div: Percent of time team won division
WC 1: Percent of time team won first wild card
WC 2: Percent of time team won second wild card

We still don’t know if there will be a second wild card yet, so you can chop off that column and subtract that percentage from the team’s over playoff percentage.

Because Marcel regresses more heavily than other projections and because it assumes every one who hasn’t played in MLB projects as league average, you see a tighter spread here than you’ll see in other projected standings. The standard deviation for team wins in my last CAIRO projections was about 9. In this version it’s 7.1. That may be more realistic if you think about how little we really know about how good/bad players and teams are, even though what will actually happen in 2012 will show a much bigger spread more in line with other projected standings.

Here are the average win totals for the placings in each division and for the two wild cards.

Div	Place	Avg W
AL East	1	96
AL East	2	91
AL East	3	86
AL East	4	80
AL East	5	69
Div		Avg W
AL Central	1	89
AL Central	2	83
AL Central	3	79
AL Central	4	75
AL Central	5	67
Div		Avg W
AL West	1	92
AL West	2	86
AL West	3	81
AL West	4	74
AL WC 1		91
AL WC2		88
Div		Avg W
NL East	1	94
NL East	2	88
NL East	3	83
NL East	4	78
NL East	5	72
Div		Avg W
NL Central	1	92
NL Central	2	85
NL Central	3	80
NL Central	4	74
NL Central	5	69
NL Central	6	63
Div		Avg W
NL West	1	91
NL West	2	85
NL West	3	81
NL West	4	77
NL West	5	71
NL WC1		89
NL WC2		87

What this shows is that on average a team needed 96 wins to win the AL East, etc.,.

Some obvious things to consider would be:

- the difference between Yu Darvish (and other imports) and a league average pitcher
- prospects who project better than league average
- players who switched to parks that will affect their projections since Marcel does not park-adjust

Despite all that, the ordinal rankings seem reasonable. The only differences between this and CAIRO in that regard are that I have St. Louis ahead of Cincinnati and the Diamondbacks and Giants ahead of Colorado.

This is current through Francisco Cordero signing with Toronto, and assumes Prince Fielder at 1B and Miguel Cabrera playing a terrible version of 3B for Detroit in 70% of their games, and DHing in 25% of them.

--Posted at 8:19 am by SG / 25 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Salvaging a Sunken Cost

You can make a case that A.J. Burnett has negative value right now. While he does project to be above replacement level in CAIRO, it’s important to remember that the idea of replacement level is an abstraction. When thinking about it practically, a replacement level player shouldn’t necessarily be a freely available player. It can be a player in your organization who projects to be better than replacement level but is behind other players on the team’s depth chart.

Burnett projects to have an RA of 5.03 in CAIRO. The following possible starting pitchers project better than that.

CC Sabathia (3.57)
Michael Pineda (4.37)
Freddy Garcia (4.55)
Brad Meyers (4.56)
Hiroki Kuroda (4.57)
Phil Hughes (4.63)
Ivan Nova (4.93)

Projecting is an inexact science, but aside from Brad Meyers who we just don’t know much about yet, I’d expect all of those pitchers to pitch better than Burnett in 2012.

If that’s true, then every start that goes to Burnett is a start that should be going to one of the above. There’s also an opportunity cost in denying starts to any of the pitching prospects that may have developed to the point of also being better than Burnett, including but not limited to Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, Adam Warren and David Phelps.

Unfortunately, since Burnett is owed $33 million over the next two years, the Yankees probably feel obligated to try and get some value out of him.

I don’t think they can do that by pitching him. So thinking about the question EB in LA asked in the previous post about trading Burnett’s bad contract to another team for their bad contract might be a way to recoup some of that value.

EB mentioned Adam Dunn, Jason Bay, Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano.

Player	2012		2013		2014		Total
	Salary	WAR	Salary	WAR	Salary	WAR	Salary	WAR	$/WAR
A.J. Burnett	16.5		16.5				$33.0	0.0	$0.00
Jason Bay	16	2.1	16	1.6	3		$35.0	3.6	$9.67
Adam Dunn	14	1.9	15	1.4	15	0.9	$44.0	4.3	$10.25
Carlos Lee	18.5	1.7					$18.5	1.7	$11.09
Alfonso Soriano	18	1.2	18	0.7	18	0.2	$54.0	2.2	$24.71

This table shows the remaining guaranteed money owed to the four potential hitters (in millions) and their projected WAR as DHs, assuming a 0.5 WAR decrease per season.

Trading Burnett for Jason Bay makes a lot of sense to me. The Mets are cash-strapped and their starting rotation is thin. For the cost of $2M above the money spent on Burnett, the Yankees could conceivably pick up 3.6 WAR. Lee would be even better since you’re only committed to one year but that $18.5M difference in guaranteed money probably means the Yankees would have to eat a large chunk of money. Dunn projects better than Lee and worse than Bay but he’s still owed $44M and his 2011 was so bad that I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s effectively done as an MLB hitter. Soriano doesn’t make any sense to me since he is the most expensive of the group despite projecting to be the least valuable of them.

Bay may not have much left, but his park is a tough one for hitters so he might surprise in a disgraceful bandbox. He’s probably restricted to DH since he’s not a good fielder, although I suppose he could play an occasional game in LF against a lefty. Then again, none of the other players are much different in that regard.

So sign me up as pro for a Burnett/Bay swap.

--Posted at 10:22 am by SG / 31 Comments | - (0)

Monday, January 16, 2012

How Should The Yankees Replace Jesus Montero at DH?

Upgrading the rotation came at the cost of losing the Yankees’ starting DH and top hitting prospect. As a fan, I’m bummed about losing Montero because of the emotional tie I’ve built up as he’s progressed through the Yankee system. I think the trade was fair and I understand why it was made, but it’s still a disappointment. But press on, we must.

We really don’t know how good Montero is right now and how good he’ll be in the future. Here were the ranges of his CAIRO projections as a Yankee DH heading into 2012.

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAR
80%	695	636	86	184	41	3	37	104	4	0	61	113	11	6	.289	.362	.536	.387	115	25
65%	637	583	75	162	35	2	31	91	3	0	52	109	12	5	.278	.344	.503	.365	95	13
Baseline	579	530	64	141	29	1	25	78	2	1	44	104	13	4	.267	.327	.470	.344	78	3
35%	521	477	54	122	23	1	21	66	1	1	37	99	13	2	.256	.309	.438	.323	62	-6
20%	463	424	45	104	19	0	16	55	1	1	30	92	13	1	.245	.292	.405	.301	48	-12

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

It wouldn’t have surprised me to see Montero up near that 80% forecast, but for now he doesn’t project that way in his baseline projection.

Here’s how the range of projected wOBA’s would have looked broken down into platoon splits.

%	wOBA vs L	wOBA vs R
80%	.402	.377
65%	.380	.356
Baseline	.358	.335
35%	.335	.314
20%	.313	.294

The in-house solution for DH is probably Andruw Jones. Here’s how he projects over the same number of PA.

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAR
80%	695	599	94	147	35	3	37	103	12	1	97	155	13	9	.245	.364	.497	.376	109	19
65%	637	549	81	129	29	2	31	90	9	2	84	148	14	7	.234	.345	.464	.354	90	7
Baseline	579	499	70	112	24	1	26	77	7	2	72	141	15	5	.224	.327	.431	.332	72	-3
35%	521	449	59	96	20	1	21	66	5	3	61	132	15	4	.213	.308	.398	.311	57	-11
20%	463	399	49	81	15	0	16	55	4	3	51	122	15	2	.202	.290	.365	.289	43	-17

And here are his projected wOBA platoon splits.

%	wOBA vs L	wOBA vs R
80%	.394	.369
65%	.371	.348
Baseline	.348	.327
35%	.326	.305
20%	.303	.284

The Yankees would lose about six runs over a full season if Jones replaced Montero at DH. That’s sub-optimal, but it puts them ahead of where they were before making the trade for Michael Pineda and signing Hiroki Kuroda. Maybe two or three wins ahead depending on how the innings for the rotation get allocated. They’d probably project in the 95-96 win range if they do nothing else before spring training.

The Yankees do have options to upgrade DH. Last year, the Yankees faced LHP in 29% of their plate appearances and the DH got 646 PA in total. A similar split would mean 187 PA for DH vs. LHP. The difference between Montero’s and Jones’s baseline wOBA projection vs. LHP would be worth a loss of about two runs over that number of PA.

That’s small enough that I think between Jones, Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter (I know, but he’s better against LHP) they have enough for the right-handed portion of a platoon DH.

So what about the other, more important side? Here are the options still in free agency.

Player	Bats	Projected wOBA	Vs L	Vs R	RAJ
Carlos Pena	L	.365	.331	.379	21
Russell Branyan	L	.353	.324	.360	13
Wilson Betemit	L	.352	.323	.361	14
Raul Ibanez	L	.350	.324	.359	13
J.D. Drew	L	.345	.315	.355	11
Johnny Damon	L	.340	.324	.346	8
Hideki Matsui	L	.337	.323	.343	6
Kosuke Fukudome	L	.331	.305	.337	4
Eric Chavez	L	.295	.264	.308	-8

RAJ: Runs above Andruw Jones (vs RHP over 459 PA)

Assuming the left-handed half of the DH platoon would see 459 PA here are how some of the various options project as Yankees. If you want to replace Montero’s baseline projection, you need eight RAJ, since you’ve lost two runs from the vs LHP part of DH. Then you’re effectively where you were before trading Montero.

Carlos Pena is head and shoulders above the field, and if this number is accurate he’s probably worth something like $8-10M. I don’t know if the Yankees are willing to spend that much, which means someone from the Branyan/Betemit/Ibanez/Drew group would be the next best option. I’d assume Branyan would be the cheapest of the group, but if they want to spend more they should probably go after Betemit since he can play 3B (not well) in the likely scenario that Alex Rodriguez misses some time. The nostalgia of bringing back Damon or Matsui would be kind of cool, but not the optimal way to proceed IMO.
I think they should make a play for Pena first and foremost. If not Betemit is my second choice. Then I don’t really have a preference.

--Posted at 11:01 am by SG / 56 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, January 14, 2012

CBS Sports: Miller: Savvy Yankees hit home run with Pineda, Kuroda

Just a few days after meeting with the representatives for free agent Edwin Jackson, the Yankees became the talk of the industry on what had been a slow Friday night with their stealth move for Pineda, who, at 22, already is within sight of becoming an ace.

“He’s got that kind of stuff,” a scout who spent part of last summer focusing on AL West clubs said Friday night. “If you wanted to be conservative, he’s a No. 2. He’s got velocity, he came up with a slider that got better and better last year and he throws strikes. When he gives up a home run or a hard-hit ball, it does not chase him out of the strike zone.

“He’s got that rare combination of stuff and control. He’s young, he’s not afraid, he’s big, he’s still growing and he’s got makeup. He’s a prize.

“And the Yankees will have, what, five years of control over him? He’s the kind of guy you build around. Holy cow.”
...
By season’s end, over 28 starts, he struck out 173 hitters while walking just 55 over 171 innings. His average fastball was clocked at 94.7 m.p.h., according to FanGraphs.

What’s notable about that? The fastballs of only three other AL starters checked in higher: Texas’ Alexi Ogando, Detroit’s Justin Verlander and Tampa Bay’s David Price.

Kuroda? He turns 37 next month. But he gave the Dodgers 202 innings in 2011, going 13-16 with a 3.07 ERA. He’s a competitor with fierce pride.

“Solid No. 3,” the scout said. “He throws strikes, he’s got good stuff, a crisp fastball that’s deceptive and he throws harder than people think. He’s at 90 to 94 with sink down in the zone, a crisp breaking ball and a good split.

“He’s got out pitches. I’d love to have Kuroda.”

If you’re going to trade Montero, trading him for a potential ace with five more years under team control makes it sting a little less.

Anyway, the starting pitcher WAR I posted in the last thread were off, so here is the revised version.

Before
CC Sabathia, 220 IP, 6.1 WAR
Ivan Nova, 190 IP, 2.4 WAR
Phil Hughes, 175 IP, 2.8 WAR
A.J. Burnett, 175 IP, 2.1 WAR
Freddy Garcia, 150 IP, 2.6 WAR
Hector Noesi, 50 IP, 0.3 WAR
Adam Warren, 25 IP, 0.2 WAR
David Phelps, 15 IP, 0.1 WAR
Starters, 1000 IP, 16.6 WAR

After
CC Sabathia, 220 IP, 6.1 WAR
Hiroki Kuroda, 182 IP, 3.1 WAR
Michael Pineda, 168 IP, 3.2 WAR
Ivan Nova, 175 IP, 2.2 WAR
Phil Hughes, 100 IP, 1.6 WAR
A.J. Burnett, 100 IP, 1.2 WAR
Freddy Garcia, 100 IP, 1.7 WAR
Starters, 1045 IP, 19.1 WAR

So figure something in the area of a 2.5 win upgrade in the rotation, more if they can split those Burnett innings between Hughes and Garcia.

--Posted at 10:24 am by SG / 219 Comments | - (0)

Friday, January 13, 2012

Montero/Noesi for Pineda/Campos? Kuroda signed?

@GregJohnsMLB Greg Johns
No confirmation from team, but source says Mariners sending Pineda and Jose Campos to Yankees for Jesus Montero/Hector Noesi.

First thought is that I don’t like this. But I’ll do an analysis on it tomorrow.

Update: I like this better.

@JackCurryYES
Big night for the Yankees. They have agreed to a 1-year deal with Kuroda, pending a physical. Deal will be between $10 and $11 million.

The Yankees will have the best 7 man rotation in baseball. Who needs a DH, really?

Update v2: Projections for Pineda and Kuroda as Yankees

Player	Michael Pineda
mlbam_id	501381
Age	23
%	G	GS	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	HBP	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
80%	32	32	12	9	193	159	81	75	19	53	3	195	3.77	3.49	3.12	50	5.0
65%	30	30	11	10	185	158	84	78	21	54	4	180	4.07	3.77	3.45	41	4.1
Baseline	28	28	10	9	168	150	82	76	21	53	5	157	4.37	4.06	3.79	32	3.2
35%	22	22	7	8	134	125	70	65	19	45	5	121	4.67	4.35	4.13	21	2.1
20%	19	19	6	7	118	114	65	61	18	42	5	101	4.98	4.64	4.46	14	1.4
Player	Hiroki Kuroda
mlbam_id	493133
Age	37
%	G	GS	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	HBP	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
80%	33	33	13	9	202	199	90	78	18	43	3	155	4.00	3.49	3.32	47	4.7
65%	31	31	12	9	191	196	91	80	20	44	4	141	4.29	3.75	3.62	38	3.8
Baseline	29	29	11	9	182	193	92	81	21	45	5	128	4.57	4.01	3.92	31	3.1
35%	24	24	8	8	146	160	79	69	19	39	5	98	4.86	4.28	4.22	20	2.0
20%	21	21	7	7	127	145	73	64	18	36	5	82	5.14	4.54	4.52	13	1.3

FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs saved above replacement level using RA
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)

The Yankees added two pitchers that project to be better than their second starter a few hours ago. I hate losing Jesus Montero’s long-term potential, but truthfully, his CAIRO projection as a DH was barely above replacement level. The Yankees may regret this trade at some point, but it makes them stronger in 2012 and at least they traded Montero for a 23 year old with five years of team control left and with a big-time arm.

Back of envelope projection says that as long as they add a league average bat to serve as either the primary DH or to play all over the field while they DH the regulars, they went from something like:

CC Sabathia, 220 IP, 5.5 WAR
Ivan Nova, 190 IP, 2.0 WAR
Phil Hughes, 175 IP, 1.9 WAR
A.J. Burnett, 175 IP, 1.2 WAR
Freddy Garcia, 150 IP, 2.2 WAR
Hector Noesi, 50 IP, 0.0 WAR
Adam Warren, 25 IP, 0.0 WAR
David Phelps, 15 IP, 0.0 WAR
Starters, 1000 IP, 12.8 WAR

to something more like:

CC Sabathia, 220 IP, 5.5 WAR
Hiroki Kuroda, 180 IP, 2.3 WAR
Michael Pineda, 175 IP, 2.3 WAR
Ivan Nova, 175 IP, 1.8 WAR
Phil Hughes, 100 IP, 1.1 WAR
A.J. Burnett, 100 IP, 0.7 WAR
Freddy Garcia, 100 IP, 1.4 WAR
Starters, 1050 IP, 15.2 WAR

I am being somewhat conservative on innings with Pineda and Nova by design, and if the Yankees would dump Burnett I’d give his innings to Hughes and Garcia and it would make them look even better.

They’ve probably added about three wins tonight, which if added to the last batch of still early and mostly useless projections makes them the best team in baseball. Yay.

--Posted at 8:26 pm by SG / 134 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, January 12, 2012

NJ.com: Carig: Yankees meet with Edwin Jackson’s agent

NEW YORK — Yankees managing partner Hal Steinbrenner met with agent Scott Boras tonight to discuss pitcher Edwin Jackson, perhaps the top pitcher left on the free agent market.

Boras requested the meeting, according to a person with knowledge of the situation, who requested anonymity so they could speak candidly.

I’ve bolded the key point here. I don’t think the Yankees are aggressively pursuing Jackson, but I do think they’d consider him if his price comes down to a certain point.

I’d have no problem with Jackson on the right terms. So what are the right terms? Here’s how CAIRO would project Jackson as a Yankee for 2012.

%	G	GS	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	HBP	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
80%	35	35	14	10	218	228	96	89	18	64	2	174	3.98	3.67	3.40	51	5.1
65%	33	33	12	11	208	225	98	91	20	65	3	160	4.25	3.93	3.68	42	4.2
Baseline	31	31	11	11	198	222	99	92	21	66	4	146	4.52	4.18	3.97	34	3.4
35%	25	25	9	9	158	184	84	78	19	56	4	112	4.79	4.44	4.26	23	2.3
20%	22	22	7	8	139	166	78	72	18	52	4	94	5.05	4.69	4.55	16	1.6

FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs saved above replacement level using RA
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)

Since you almost certainly can’t sign him for one year, here’s a look at how he’d project over the next five years.

Year	Age	G	GS	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	HBP	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
2012	29	31	31	11	11	198	222	99	92	21	66	4	146	4.52	4.18	3.97	34	3.4
2013	30	31	31	11	11	198	228	104	96	22	68	4	140	4.70	4.35	4.14	30	3.0
2014	31	30	30	10	10	188	219	104	96	23	65	4	124	4.96	4.59	4.37	23	2.3
2015	32	28	28	10	10	179	213	102	95	23	62	4	114	5.14	4.76	4.52	19	1.9
2016	33	27	27	9	9	170	207	102	94	24	60	3	102	5.39	4.99	4.74	13	1.3

Five years adds up to about 12.0 WAR. So something like 5 years/$60M is fair. If they could keep it to four years and $50M they have a good chance of getting some surplus value out of him and he’d probably still be close to league average by the end of the fourth year.

I don’t know that Jackson’s the type of pitcher you want to commit long-term too. However, given the fact that he’s played for six different teams, he seems like the type of pitcher teams like to get their hands on. I’d guess that’s because he’s got a 95 mph fastball and is still relatively young. So he’s probably someone you can trade down the road provided he doesn’t go A.J. on you.

Then again, the fact that he’s been moved around so much might be an indicator that teams got tired of waiting for him to take a step forward.

I think I’d be fine with Jackson on a 4 year, $50M deal. It wouldn’t excite me, but it wouldn’t be as monumentally stupid as signing a middle reliever for $36M. Speaking hypothetically of course. No team’s that stupid, are they?

--Posted at 10:41 am by SG / 77 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

CAIRO 2012 v0.4

I’m releasing the latest version of the 2012 CAIRO projections today, version 0.4. They can be downloaded at the following link:

CAIRO 2012 v0.4 (Excel 97-2003 format)

What’s changed?

- Moved players to new teams and moved all unsigned players into a free agent pool
- Added projections for Yoennis Céspedes, Wei-Yin Chen, Trevor Bauer and Hisahi Iwakuma.
- Added starter projections for Alfredo Aceves, Daniel Bard, Aroldis Chapman, Kris Medlen and Chris Sale.
- Added wOBA platoon splits for hitters who’ve played in the majors. You can substitute whatever wOBA projection you want and it will re-calculate them.
- There were a few bugs in my pitching projections which have been corrected. RA/ERA are more in line with what they should be based on the peripherals. I’ve also fixed a problem with the way pitcher WAR was being calculated.
- And of course, no new version of CAIRO can be released without taking the Marcels and changing the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better, so that was done as well. The Yankees should now project to win about 140 games.

--Posted at 2:34 pm by SG / 25 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Still Way Too Early and Mostly Useless 2012 Projected Standings

I was goofing around with the second wild card thing in my simulator and ran an updated set of still way too early and mostly useless projected standings. I think I liked the last set better.

The same disclaimers from the last set apply here and you can read them by clicking the link in the previous paragraph, so I’m not going to repeat them. In summary, ignore these if you don’t like them.

Div	Team	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
AL East
1	BOS	93.7	68.3	872	733	43.8%	20.85%	12.82%	77.44%
2	NYA	93.0	69.0	859	742	38.9%	19.58%	13.74%	72.24%
3	TAM	88.9	73.1	733	651	17.0%	15.37%	13.38%	45.71%
4	TOR	77.9	84.1	770	798	0.4%	1.13%	3.31%	4.79%
5	BAL	64.8	97.2	717	885	0.0%	0.00%	0.06%	0.06%
AL Central
1	DET	88.9	73.1	785	702	63.2%	1.78%	14.80%	79.74%
2	CLE	85.0	77.0	749	706	30.6%	3.40%	9.19%	43.14%
3	CHA	75.7	86.3	707	789	4.2%	0.15%	1.82%	6.12%
4	KC	73.5	88.5	682	755	1.8%	0.05%	0.64%	2.44%
5	MIN	67.4	94.6	715	850	0.4%	0.00%	0.06%	0.46%
AL West
1	TEX	94.1	67.9	817	680	52.9%	16.77%	14.32%	83.94%
2	LAA	93.3	68.7	746	637	46.2%	18.67%	12.96%	77.83%
3	SEA	76.5	85.5	658	697	0.9%	1.30%	2.57%	4.72%
4	OAK	74.0	88.0	650	713	0.1%	0.95%	0.93%	1.98%

	WC1	93.4
	WC2	90.4
Div	Team	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
NL East
1	PHI	92.7	69.3	702	603	64.4%	11.32%	8.43%	84.11%
2	ATL	86.8	75.2	715	671	20.7%	19.83%	10.72%	51.24%
3	WAS	82.4	79.6	674	655	7.3%	9.83%	7.96%	25.07%
4	FLA	81.6	80.4	715	703	6.5%	7.28%	7.39%	21.16%
5	NYN	76.2	85.8	669	717	1.3%	1.54%	2.25%	5.07%
NL Central	Team
1	STL	90.3	71.7	743	650	53.1%	11.63%	9.61%	74.36%
2	CIN	86.4	75.6	714	665	25.1%	12.02%	12.56%	49.71%
3	MIL	85.8	76.2	696	660	21.3%	12.96%	8.46%	42.75%
4	CHN	70.5	91.5	652	755	0.4%	0.50%	0.16%	1.01%
5	PIT	69.2	92.9	655	760	0.1%	0.08%	0.11%	0.24%
6	HOU	57.9	104.1	572	779	0.0%	0.00%	0.01%	0.01%
NL West	Team
1	SF	85.5	76.5	667	627	40.1%	4.83%	11.28%	56.16%
2	ARI	85.4	76.6	668	635	39.6%	4.48%	11.24%	55.36%
3	COL	79.3	82.7	767	784	10.4%	1.62%	4.36%	16.34%
4	SD	76.8	85.2	641	667	5.3%	0.94%	3.87%	10.10%
5	LAN	76.5	85.5	626	666	4.7%	1.13%	2.21%	8.01%

	WC1	90.3
	WC2	87.7

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card

Nothing would make me happier than Houston winning the second wild card and going all the way. Maybe then the second wild card thing will die before completely ruining baseball.

--Posted at 10:05 am by SG / 35 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

NYDN: Yankees continue to negotiate with Japanese shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima

The Yankees continue to negotiate with Hiroyuki Nakajima, and a team official clarified that the deadline to sign the shortstop is Friday — not Tuesday, as some reports had stated.

While talks are ongoing, there are several reasons to wonder if Nakajima, 29, is a fit for the Yanks, who last month placed a winning bid of approximately $2 million for the right to negotiate. Per the Japanese posting process, the Yankees will pay that fee only if they sign Nakajima.

Nakajima projects very similarly to Eduardo Nunez in CAIRO. Put it this way, can you tell me which of these projections is Nunez and which is Nakajima?

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAR
80%	337	311	39	91	17	2	11	43	10	1	29	54	5	7	.292	.374	.465	.373	51	20
65%	309	285	33	79	14	1	9	37	8	2	24	53	6	5	.276	.348	.425	.344	40	11
Baseline	281	259	28	67	11	1	7	31	6	3	20	52	7	4	.260	.322	.384	.315	30	4
35%	253	233	22	57	8	0	5	25	4	3	16	50	7	2	.244	.296	.344	.286	22	-2
20%	225	207	18	47	6	0	3	20	3	4	12	47	8	1	.228	.270	.304	.257	15	-7

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAR
80%	337	307	48	90	22	3	9	40	21	2	32	35	4	2	.294	.368	.476	.370	54	22
65%	309	281	41	78	18	2	7	34	17	3	26	35	5	1	.278	.343	.434	.342	42	13
Baseline	281	256	34	67	14	1	5	28	13	4	22	35	6	1	.262	.319	.392	.313	32	6
35%	253	230	28	57	11	1	4	23	10	4	17	34	7	0	.246	.294	.351	.285	23	0
20%	225	205	23	47	8	0	3	18	8	4	14	33	7	0	.230	.270	.309	.257	16	-5

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position

I should note that Nunez probably has more upside since he’s younger, and that I have less faith in Nakajima’s projection since it involves translating statistics from Japan. So it’s noted.

Signing Nakajima would probably mean no Eric Chavez, which I wouldn’t be all that broken up about. He really didn’t hit all that well last year after returning from injury (.252/.294/.339) and while he’s got a good glove, he’s not really someone I’d think is reliable enough to perform or stay healthy enough to play a lot of 3B in the likely case of Alex Rodriguez missing a chunk of time. It might also free up Nun-E for a trade. I think Nunez has some offensive upside, but yeesh, that glove…

I don’t think Nakajima will sign. He probably wants a shot at a starting job somewhere and he won’t get it in the Bronx.

--Posted at 1:55 pm by SG / 5 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, December 31, 2011

TGS NY: Source: Yankees keep Andruw Jones

The power-hitting outfielder agreed to terms on a one-year contract on Friday, pending the outcome of a physical. According to a baseball source who spoke to ESPNNewYork.com, Jones will be paid a base salary of $2 million with incentives that could earn him another $1.4 million.

“Andruw had offers of a higher base salary from some other clubs,” said the source. “But he took less money to return to the Yankees. He had a good experience there last season and wanted to come back.”

Seems like a reasonable deal to me. CAIRO doesn’t like Jones much, but it didn’t like him in 2011 either and he had a good year in his role.

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAR
80%	270	233	39	60	15	1	16	43	5	0	40	57	4	4	.257	.386	.536	.402	47	16
65%	248	213	33	51	12	1	13	36	4	0	34	56	5	3	.241	.356	.484	.367	37	9
Baseline	225	194	27	43	9	0	10	30	3	1	28	55	6	2	.224	.327	.431	.332	28	2
35%	203	175	22	36	7	0	8	25	2	1	23	53	6	1	.207	.297	.378	.298	20	-3
20%	180	155	17	29	5	0	5	20	1	1	18	50	6	0	.190	.268	.326	.263	13	-7

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position

I think he’ll be closer to that 65% forecast, particularly if his playing time is concentrated against LHP. So he should be worth about a win.

I wonder who the Yankees will have to trade to squeeze his salary in though?

--Posted at 9:52 am by SG / 19 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, December 24, 2011

TGS NY: Source: It is about the money with Kuroda

The Yankees are still unlikely to do anything major this offseason unless they can unload some money, a baseball official with knowledge of their plans. So even though they like Hiroki Kuroda a lot, Yankees GM Brian Cashman does not have the cash to spend on the righty starter. Kuroda figures to receive at least $12 million on a one-year deal.

Feeling they have five starters in CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett and Freddy Garcia, that is not in Cashman’s budget. The Yankees already have commitments that will put their 2012 payroll in the $185-$200M range.

Since the topic of signing Kuroda or Edwin Jackson to replace Burnett in the rotation came up in an earlier thread, here’s a quick projection comparison of the three as Yankees in CAIRO.

I set the innings the same for all three for a direct comparison.

Pitcher	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	HBP	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
Burnett	32	32	190	199	110	103	26	79	11	164	5.22	4.88	4.52	13	1.3
Jackson	30	30	190	213	100	93	20	63	4	140	4.74	4.39	3.97	23	2.3
Kuroda	31	31	190	202	99	87	22	47	5	134	4.67	4.11	3.92	25	2.5

The last CAIRO spreadsheet had Burnett at 1.9 WAR but I had replacement level set too low so he’s at 1.3 now. We’re more interested in the difference though. Both Jackson and Kuroda project about a win better than Burnett in 2012.

Unfortunately, the cost of adding that additional win is likely $12M for at least one year. It doesn’t really make sense if you look at it that way. So I think the Yankees are probably right to sit tight here, even if it’s a little boring right now.

Happy holidays to everyone.

--Posted at 11:33 am by SG / 17 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Is it Better for the Yankees that Yu Darvish went to Texas instead of Toronto?

This seemed like a no-brainer to me, but since some people dissented, here’s what CAIRO says about the AL postseason odds depending on whether Yu Darvish wound up in Toronto or on Texas.

Yu-Toronto
Team	Div	WC	PL
Rangers	51.2%	16.2%	67.4%
Yankees	49.3%	18.1%	67.3%
Tigers	58.3%	4.9%	63.1%
Angels	47.3%	14.9%	62.2%
Red Sox	33.1%	19.3%	52.4%
Indians	37.1%	5.8%	43.0%
Rays	14.7%	14.7%	29.3%
Blue Jays	3.0%	3.3%	6.3%
Royals	2.7%	0.5%	3.2%
Mariners	1.1%	1.6%	2.6%
White Sox	1.7%	0.3%	1.9%
Athletics	0.5%	0.6%	1.1%
Twins	0.2%	-	0.2%
Orioles	0.0%	-	-

Yu-Texas
Team	Div	WC	PL
Rangers	56.3%	16.7%	72.9%
Yankees	51.7%	17.4%	69.1%
Tigers	58.4%	4.3%	62.8%
Angels	42.8%	18.5%	61.3%
Red Sox	30.3%	17.9%	48.2%
Indians	38.5%	5.5%	44.0%
Rays	17.3%	16.4%	33.8%
Royals	1.6%	0.4%	2.0%
White Sox	1.5%	0.2%	1.8%
Blue Jays	0.6%	1.1%	1.7%
Mariners	0.7%	0.8%	1.5%
Athletics	0.3%	0.8%	1.1%
Orioles	0.0%	-	-
Twins	0.0%	-	-

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC: Percentage of times team won wild card (still using the one wild card playoff format)
PL: Percentage of times team qualified for the postseason (Div + WC)

Update: Corrected percentages

As yfinBrazil noted, the original numbers in this post were incorrect. The table has been updated.

Now we’re looking at a Yankee playoff percentage of 67.4% if Darvish was on Toronto, at which point they’d have to get past a .566 Texas team, which would have an overall probability of 34.1%. With Darvish on Texas, you’re looking at 69.1% playoff percentage and then having to beat a .577 Texas team, which has an overall probability of 34.6%.

Which is all just a fancy way of saying it doesn’t matter all that much.

--Posted at 9:09 am by SG / 44 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

CAIRO 2012 v0.3 and Some Extremely Early and Completely Useless 2012 Projected Standings

I’m releasing CAIRO 2012 v 0.3 today which mainly fixes a problem with a handful of pitchers like Alexi Ogando and Ross Ohlendorf and moves players to new teams where applicable. I figure it’d be a good time to run some projected standings even though they are too early to be of any real value.

DISCLAIMER: This is very limited in telling us much about how 2012 will play out for a large number of reasons.

1) There are still a lot of roster changes coming. This may give us some sense of how the offseason has impacted teams to this point and it also shows us how things might look if nothing changed from now until April. Which won’t happen.

2) It’s too early to construct meaningful rosters for a lot of teams, so these projections will favor the teams that have essentially completed their 2012 rosters.

3) In addition to that, projection systems are inherently limited. They are designed to estimate a player’s true talent based on what they’ve done so far and also by factoring in things like age and how similar players have performed in the past. They will generally be in the ballpark for the general population of MLB players, but they can miss significantly on individual players which can obviously affect certain teams more heavily than others.

Anyway, using the depth charts from the wonderful MLB Depth Charts and includng playing time from players on the 40 man roster who don’t necessarily figure to be part of the the opening day 25 man rosters to account for organizational depth and playing out next season 100,000 times, here’s how CAIRO v0.3 sees things as of December 13, 2011. These were run with Aramis Ramirez as a Brewer, but I didn’t remove any of the non-tendered players from yesterday from their rosters.


Date	12/13/2011
Iterations	100000
American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Yankees	94	68	862	740	59.0%	16.8%	75.9%
Red Sox	91	71	868	763	31.1%	26.1%	57.2%
Rays	85	77	717	654	9.5%	11.8%	21.4%
Blue Jays	75	87	773	817	0.3%	0.6%	0.9%
Orioles	68	94	741	853	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Tigers	89	73	780	703	54.3%	4.7%	59.0%
Indians	87	75	751	696	40.8%	5.9%	46.6%
White Sox	77	85	723	795	3.3%	1.5%	4.8%
Royals	73	89	684	760	1.6%	0.2%	1.8%
Twins	66	96	698	829	0.0%	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Rangers	93	69	812	697	58.0%	13.7%	71.6%
Angels	90	72	720	640	39.5%	16.6%	56.1%
Mariners	77	85	653	668	2.3%	2.0%	4.2%
Athletics	71	91	636	686	0.3%	0.1%	0.4%
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Phillies	92	70	681	598	60.6%	10.5%	71.1%
Braves	87	75	711	662	24.9%	13.8%	38.7%
Marlins	81	81	716	695	8.2%	4.4%	12.6%
Nationals	80	82	665	668	4.9%	3.2%	8.1%
Mets	76	86	669	710	1.4%	1.6%	3.0%
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Brewers	92	70	700	646	52.5%	14.3%	66.7%
Cardinals	90	72	708	648	36.8%	19.3%	56.2%
Reds	84	78	724	704	10.1%	10.8%	20.9%
Cubs	74	88	649	727	0.3%	1.1%	1.4%
Pirates	70	92	656	758	0.4%	-	0.4%
Astros	60	102	569	759	0.0%	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Giants	88	74	656	613	46.3%	6.4%	52.7%
Diamondbacks	86	76	647	613	31.2%	6.4%	37.6%
Padres	81	81	620	613	11.3%	4.6%	15.9%
Dodgers	79	83	624	644	7.9%	2.9%	10.8%
Rockies	76	86	726	776	3.4%	0.6%	4.0%

The most shocking thing here is the Astros projecting to win 62 games IMO. I also am amused by the fact that the Marlins don’t really project any better than the Nationals despite all their largesse this offseason.

Also, be aware that I haven’t accounted for the stupid new second wild card thing yet, since I am not certain that it will be implemented for this upcoming season, and rremember that this is more for fun than utility and take it in the appropriate spirit.

--Posted at 11:22 am by SG / 44 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Lohud: Yankees take right hander in Rule 5

In this morning’s Rule 5 draft, the Yankees took RHP Brad Meyers from the Nationals.

The Yankees lost no one.
...

UPDATE, 10:23 a.m.: There’s a report from Kansas City that the Royals have traded their pick, LHP Cesar Cabral out of the Red Sox system, to the Yankees.

I have to say I know nothing about either player. I’d assume Cabral is an ace-in-training given his prior organization, but I’ll post their CAIRO projections in a minute.

Here you go.

mlbamid	Last	First	Age	Team	Lg	Role	G	GS	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	BF	RA	ERA	FIP	WAR
455122	Meyers	Brad	27	NYA	AL	SP	22	22	8	6	125	140	67	61	15	25	83	524	4.80	4.42	3.98	1.9
501627	Cabral	Cesar	23	NYA	AL	RP	50	2	4	4	76	87	47	43	7	35	52	340	5.55	5.13	4.39	0.0

Meyers doesn’t have overpowering velocity, but has very good control.

Fastball: Sits in the 92-94 mph range at times, but he sits comfortably in the 89-91 mph range with some nice sink

Full scouting report here.

Sounds like a Darrell Rasner type, and profiles similarly. That’s not a bad thing to have around for depth at the very least. I think the CAIRO may be a little optimistic, but seems like he’s a nice gamble to take.

Cabral was taken in them 2010 Rule 5 draft by Tampa Bay before being returned to Boston, so he’s apparently someone who’s interesting as a lefty arm out of the bullpen (where he’s pitched the last two years). His projection isn’t great, but he appears to have decent stuff.

Scouting Report: Lefty with a solid frame and a smooth delivery. Pitches exclusively from the stretch. Fastball sits between 88-92 mph and tops out at 95 mph. Secondary pitches include an excellent 81-83 mph circle changeup, a mid-70s slurvey curveball, and a sharp 79-82 mph slider. Gets a lot of swings and misses with his changeup, which has nice downward movement

Full scouting report here.

In other news.

Foxsports:Source: Darvish to be posted Thursday

Japanese right-hander Yu Darvish will be posted on Thursday, taking the first step toward pitching in the majors next season, according to a source familiar with his plans.

Early Thursday, Darvish confirmed on his blog that he will use the system. ‘‘I have decided to use the posting system,’’ he wrote. ‘‘I wanted to tell my fans directly, so that is why I am posting this on my blog.’‘

The sudden availability of Darvish, a potential top-of-the-rotation starter, will be a major attraction for clubs frustrated by the lack of elite starters in this year’s free-agent market and the high asking prices on quality pitchers in trades.

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Also.

Jon Heyman’s Twitter: [C.J.] Wilson signs with angels $75M 5 yrs

That Wilson deal looks like a bargain. I’m a bit surprised no one else would go beyond that. Seems like a better value than what Darvish is eventually going to cost for probably similar production.

Yahoo! Tim Brown: Pujols agrees to terms with Angels on landmark deal.

Pujols should fill the massive hole left by trading Jeff Mathis.

--Posted at 11:03 am by SG / 119 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

CAIRO 2012 v0.2

Here’s the latest version of the 2012 CAIRO projections, which can be downloaded here: cairo_2012_v0.2.xls.

What’s changed?

- Added more minor leaguers
- Added defensive projections for catchers and added Totalzone and Zone Rating projections for the other positions
- Added W-L for the pitchers, based on their current team and that team’s runs scored in 2011. This will change as teams’ offensive projections change, so keep that in mind.
- Took the Marcels and changed the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.

So, what does CAIRO 2012 v0.2 think about how good the Yankees are right now?

Lineup	Player	Pos	PA	avg/obp/slg	wOBA	Outs	BR	BRAR	Def	WAR
1	Derek Jeter	SS	550	.286/.345/.384	.317	360	64	20	-6	1.3
2	Curtis Granderson	CF	600	.263/.351/.502	.350	389	91	38	0	3.8
3	Robinson Cano	2B	625	.303/.352/.504	.352	405	93	39	0	3.9
4	Alex Rodriguez	3B	450	.273/.363/.474	.351	286	66	27	0	2.7
5	Mark Teixeira	1B	625	.263/.359/.493	.352	401	93	26	4	3.0
6	Nick Swisher	RF	600	.259/.356/.455	.341	386	83	22	4	2.6
7	Jesus Montero	DH	500	.267/.322/.470	.326	339	66	9	0	0.9
8	Russell Martin	C	500	.253/.347/.383	.319	326	58	22	1	2.3
9	Brett Gardner	LF	500	.262/.347/.371	.315	326	61	10	22	3.2
	Starters		4950	.271/.350/.452	.337	3220	675	212	25	23.7
Bench	Player	Pos	PA	avg/obp/slg	wOBA	Outs	BR	BRAR	Def	WAR
	Eduardo Nunez	IF	350	.262/.315/.392	.299	240	40	10	-5	0.5
	Chris Dickerson	OF	250	.243/.321/.369	.298	170	27	3	0	0.3
	Ramiro Pena	IF	152	.240/.290/.340	.272	108	13	0	0	0.0
	Francisco Cervelli	C	150	.264/.328/.373	.303	101	16	5	-3	0.5
	Colin Curtis	OF	75	.244/.312/.391	.299	52	8	1	0	0.1
	Brandon Laird	IF	75	.247/.292/.407	.291	53	8	2	0	0.2
	Corban Joseph	2B	75	.237/.304/.356	.284	52	7	1	0	0.1
	Zoilo Almonte	IF	75	.227/.282/.379	.277	54	7	1	0	0.1
	Justin Maxwell	OF	75	.220/.315/.397	.303	51	9	1	0	0.1
	Bench		1277	.248/.311/.378	.294	880	135	24	-5	1.9
	Team Total		6227	.266/.342/.436	.328	4100	810	236	17	25.6

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs

The Yankees are not likely to add a position player who will significantly improve these projections, so I think the critical number here is 450. If they can get more than 450 PA out of Alex Rodriguez they’ll project a bit better. They can also probably shore up the bench by adding an outfielder who projects better than Chris Dickerson, or who can at least be platooned with Dickerson. That could be accomplished by bringing back Andruw Jones or signing Cody Ross perhaps. Ross would project to hit .261/.328/.444 as a Yankee, and is capable of playing all three OF spots. Plus he’s a clutch postseason monster. Until he isn’t.

We do know the Yankees are going to try and improve their pitching.

Role	Player	IP	H	R	HR	BB	K	RA	ERA	FIP	WAR
SP1	CC Sabathia	220	199	87	18	62	195	3.58	3.25	3.23	5.5
SP2	Ivan Nova	200	197	109	22	80	124	4.91	4.48	4.52	2.1
SP3	Phil Hughes	175	169	94	23	60	136	4.86	4.72	4.26	1.9
SP4	A.J. Burnett	175	172	102	24	73	151	5.22	4.88	4.52	1.2
SP5	Hector Noesi	100	112	65	16	33	68	5.83	5.44	4.80	0.0
SP6	Adam Warren	50	55	32	6	19	29	5.71	5.28	4.72	0.1
SP7	David Phelps	50	57	33	7	17	29	5.88	5.44	4.88	0.0
SP8	D. J. Mitchell	25	28	17	3	13	14	6.29	5.81	5.26	-0.1
SP9	Manny Banuelos	25	27	18	4	14	17	6.52	6.01	5.43	-0.2
SP10	Dellin Betances	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.80	6.29	5.75	0.0
Starters		1020	1018	557	124	370	763	4.92	4.57	4.29	10.5
Role	Player	IP	H	R	HR	BB	K	RA	ERA	FIP	WAR
CL	Mariano Rivera	60	44	16	4	11	55	2.36	2.21	2.71	1.9
SU	David Robertson	75	58	24	4	38	95	2.88	2.70	2.84	2.0
SU	Rafael Soriano	60	46	25	6	21	57	3.78	3.57	3.64	1.0
MR	Cory Wade	60	56	28	8	16	42	4.19	3.86	4.31	0.7
MR	Joba Chamberlain	50	47	25	5	19	47	4.43	4.04	3.72	0.5
MR	Boone Logan	50	49	24	5	20	48	4.36	3.82	3.71	0.5
MR	Mike O’Connor	25	26	15	3	9	18	5.32	4.94	4.37	0.0
MR	Kevin Whelan	25	25	17	3	18	20	6.16	5.70	5.30	-0.2
LR	George Kontos	15	16	11	3	7	10	6.51	6.03	5.64	-0.2
Relievers		420	366	184	43	158	392	3.95	3.64	3.69	6.2
Total		1440	1384	742	167	528	1154	4.64	4.30	4.12	16.6

FIP: Fielding-independent pitching

Basically, the Yankees can add a win for every WAR they add to the rotation, since their rotation projects as replacement level after A.J. Burnett. That doesn’t mean none of the kids are better than their projections and would do the job in 2012, it just means they shouldn’t plan for that as what’s going to happen. The bullpen is fine, although they could probably benefit from adding a lefty reliever. An intriguing name that I’ve seen mentioned here and on Fangraphs is Dontrelle Willis. I’ll do a detailed post about him later.

Here’s what the overall picture looks like.

RS	810
Def	17
RA	742
wpct	.553
p162	90

So we’re looking at around a 90 win team right now. I think 95 wins is the sweet spot for projecting as the favorite in the AL East. Adding C.J. Wilson probably gets them there. Adding Yu Darvish might. Other than that it’s tough to see a single move that would accomplish it.

--Posted at 8:01 am by SG / 62 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

CAIRO 2012 v0.1

I’m heading on vacation for about three weeks, and will probably not be online at all, so I’m releasing my 2012 CAIRO v0.1 now, even though they still need a bit of work. If you have any players you want projected that aren’t in here or see anything that looks off let me know in this thread and I’ll check it when I get back. In the meantime Jonathan will keep you covered on the major happenings in Yankee-land. I hope to return with the news that the Yankees have re-signed CC and won the posting for Yu Darvish, but we’ll see what happens.

Here are some of the key Yankees’ projections.

Last	First	Age	Pos	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	WAR
Cano	Robinson	30	2B	676	620	97	188	42	4	25	100	5	3	42	84	.303	.352	.504	.352	95	4.1
Granderson	Curtis	31	CF	644	560	103	147	24	7	32	86	16	6	73	142	.263	.351	.502	.350	92	4.0
Teixeira	Mark	32	1B	692	594	98	156	34	1	33	109	3	1	81	113	.263	.359	.493	.352	98	2.7
Rodriguez	Alex	37	3B	459	398	65	109	21	1	19	78	6	2	53	82	.273	.363	.474	.351	63	2.6
Montero	Jesus	23	C	380	348	42	93	19	1	17	49	1	1	27	69	.267	.322	.470	.326	48	2.2
Martin	Russell	29	C	511	443	60	112	19	0	13	54	9	3	59	81	.253	.347	.383	.319	56	2.2
Swisher	Nick	32	RF	626	533	84	138	31	1	24	82	2	2	80	129	.259	.356	.455	.341	81	2.2
Jeter	Derek	38	SS	581	519	82	149	22	1	8	56	16	5	46	83	.286	.345	.384	.317	64	2.1
Gardner	Brett	29	LF	484	418	74	109	16	6	6	38	35	8	53	82	.262	.347	.371	.315	56	1.0
Romine	Austin	24	C	346	321	37	78	15	1	8	37	3	2	22	62	.242	.294	.365	.282	31	0.8
Maxwell	Justin	29	CF	267	233	33	51	11	1	9	26	10	3	31	79	.220	.315	.397	.303	29	0.8
Laird	Brandon	25	3B	392	364	42	90	18	1	13	50	2	1	22	72	.247	.292	.407	.291	39	0.8
Nunez	Eduardo	25	3B	281	256	34	67	14	1	5	28	13	4	20	35	.262	.315	.392	.299	30	0.7
Jones	Andruw	35	RF	315	271	38	61	13	1	14	41	4	1	37	76	.224	.320	.431	.313	36	0.7
Cervelli	Francisco	26	C	185	164	20	43	7	1	3	22	2	1	15	32	.264	.328	.373	.303	18	0.6
Posada	Jorge	41	DH	420	368	44	94	20	1	16	55	2	1	46	87	.255	.340	.442	.329	51	0.6
Molina	Gustavo	30	C	131	121	12	29	6	0	3	14	1	0	7	25	.240	.285	.376	.278	12	0.3
Bernier	Doug	32	SS	346	310	34	71	15	2	4	29	5	2	28	76	.227	.291	.324	.267	27	0.2
Pena	Ramiro	27	SS	201	183	23	44	7	1	3	18	4	1	13	35	.240	.290	.340	.272	17	0.2
Curtis	Colin	27	LF	231	209	26	51	11	1	6	26	3	1	19	44	.244	.312	.391	.299	24	0.2
Dickerson	Chris	30	LF	188	165	23	40	8	2	3	15	7	2	19	46	.243	.321	.369	.298	19	0.2
Chavez	Eric	35	3B	149	136	15	33	7	0	3	17	1	0	11	31	.243	.298	.364	.282	14	0.1
Golson	Greg	27	CF	216	198	23	47	7	2	4	17	6	2	13	51	.235	.285	.355	.273	19	0.1
Russo	Kevin	28	2B	384	350	41	83	15	2	5	30	7	3	27	73	.236	.295	.329	.272	31	0.0

Last	First	Age	Role	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	IBB	SO	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
Sabathia	CC	32	SP	33	33	227	218	19	64	4	201	3.25	3.23	64	6.4
Nova	Ivan	25	SP	30	29	168	176	19	67	2	104	4.48	4.52	23	2.3
Rivera	Mariano	43	RP	65	0	65	50	4	12	2	59	2.21	2.71	23	2.3
Burnett	A.J.	36	SP	32	32	190	198	26	79	2	164	4.88	4.52	19	1.9
Colon	Bartolo	39	SP	23	22	134	145	18	35	3	103	4.16	4.07	18	1.8
Robertson	David	27	RP	63	0	62	50	4	31	5	78	2.70	2.84	18	1.8
Garcia	Freddy	37	SP	18	17	102	112	12	30	3	64	4.28	4.28	18	1.8
Hughes	Phil	26	SP	22	16	95	97	12	32	1	74	4.72	4.26	13	1.3
Soriano	Rafael	33	RP	46	0	45	37	5	16	2	43	3.57	3.64	9	0.9
Chamberlain	Joba	27	RP	47	5	69	68	7	26	1	64	4.04	3.72	8	0.8
Warren	Adam	25	SP	28	28	147	173	18	57	0	85	5.28	4.72	7	0.7
Wade	Cory	29	RP	37	0	43	43	6	11	1	30	3.86	4.31	6	0.6
Feliciano	Pedro	36	RP	64	0	48	52	4	20	4	40	4.09	3.83	6	0.6
Logan	Boone	28	RP	56	0	43	45	4	17	3	41	3.82	3.71	6	0.6
Ayala	Luis	34	RP	42	0	46	48	5	17	2	31	3.99	4.40	5	0.5
Phelps	David	26	SP	28	27	152	185	23	50	0	88	5.44	4.88	4	0.4
Prior	Mark	32	SP	13	10	47	52	6	17	1	33	4.91	4.44	4	0.4
Valdes	Raul	35	RP	30	3	47	51	6	16	1	40	4.72	4.08	3	0.3
Marte	Damaso	37	RP	43	0	36	32	4	16	2	30	4.68	4.36	3	0.3
Farnham	Jeffrey	25	RP	35	0	37	36	4	19	2	30	4.53	4.51	3	0.3
Flannery	Ryan	27	RP	58	0	70	79	7	26	1	42	4.91	4.43	2	0.2
Mitre	Sergio	31	RP	31	2	51	52	6	17	1	28	4.55	4.58	1	0.1
Laffey	Aaron	27	RP	30	5	54	65	6	24	1	29	4.85	4.77	1	0.1
Norton	Tim	29	RP	39	0	45	47	7	18	1	40	4.98	4.71	1	0.1
Noesi	Hector	25	RP	31	10	79	94	12	26	2	53	5.44	4.80	-3	-0.3
Whelan	Kevin	28	RP	36	0	39	41	5	28	0	32	5.70	5.30	-3	-0.3
Mitchell	D. J.	25	SP	32	30	171	205	22	86	0	92	5.81	5.26	-3	-0.3
Schmidt	Josh	30	RP	60	1	75	81	9	46	1	57	5.48	5.06	-3	-0.3
Venditte	Pat	27	RP	61	0	82	94	12	35	1	58	5.55	4.96	-4	-0.4
Isabel	George	23	RP	41	0	42	45	7	29	1	33	6.03	5.80	-5	-0.5
Reyes	Yobanny	24	RP	45	0	48	53	7	32	1	35	5.93	5.60	-5	-0.5
DeLuca	Evan	21	SP	19	19	92	105	14	53	1	62	6.07	5.48	-5	-0.5
Proctor	Scott	36	RP	34	0	36	42	7	21	2	28	6.38	5.92	-5	-0.5
Banuelos	Manny	21	SP	26	26	126	147	19	72	1	88	6.01	5.43	-5	-0.5
Betances	Dellin	24	SP	16	16	73	82	12	47	0	55	6.29	5.75	-5	-0.5
Stoneburner	Graham	25	SP	22	21	111	137	19	45	0	64	6.10	5.48	-6	-0.6
Kontos	George	27	RP	30	5	56	65	11	27	0	39	6.03	5.64	-6	-0.6

WAR for position players does NOT include defense yet.

You can download the full spreadsheet here. I still need to add catcher defense and zone rating/total zone to the other fielders, and playing times are likely to be somewhat off. I need to double-check my MLEs since I usually find a mistake or two so don’t get too hung up on the minor leaguers’ projections just yet.

If I was to build a preliminary depth chart for the 2012 Yankees right now using the players currently under contract, it’d look something like this.

Player	Pos	PA	BR	Player	Role	IP	R
Jeter, Derek	SS	580	64	Sabathia, CC	SP1	220	87
Granderson, Curtis	CF	640	91	Nova, Ivan	SP2	200	109
Cano, Robinson	2B	670	95	Hughes, Phil	SP3	175	94
Rodriguez, Alex	3B	459	63	Burnett, A.J.	SP4	185	107
Teixeira, Mark	1B	675	95	Noesi, Hector	SP5	140	91
Swisher, Nick	RF	625	81	Betances, Dellin	SP6	50	38
Montero, Jesus	DH	550	69	Banuelos, Manny	SP7	50	36
Martin, Russell	C	500	55	Brackman, Andrew	SP8	0	0
Gardner, Brett	LF	550	63	Rivera, Mariano	CL	60	16
Nunez, Eduardo	IF	340	36	Robertson, David	SU	80	26
Cervelli, Francisco	C	250	25	Soriano, Rafael	SU	65	27
Pena, Ramiro	IF	50	4	Logan, Boone	MR	60	29
Dickerson, Chris	OF	300	31	Wade, Cory	MR	70	33
Golson, Greg	OF	50	4	Chamberlain, Joba	MR	60	30
Laird, Brandon	IF	50	5	Laffey, Aaron	LR	25	15
Russo, Kevin	UT	25	2	Warren, Adam	LR	0	0
Romine, Austin	C	0	0	Phelps, David	LR	0	0
Total		6314	784	Total		1440	737

That’s about an 86 win team, before considering defense. If we assume the 2012 Yankees would be about the same as the 2011 Yankees defensively (around +20) then you’re closer to an 88 win team. It’s not impossible to think some of the young pitchers will be better than CAIRO projects, but the offense looks like it could use a bit more oomph, particularly if we assume we’re only going to get about 450 PA of Alex Rodriguez. They probably need someone who can play 3B and outhit/outglove Eduardo Nunez for at least 40 games.

As far as the pitching staff, the Yankees probably should at least consider bringing Freddy Garcia and/or Bartolo Colon back. Garcia projects better than everyone but CC in the rotation, so I’d like to see the Yankees at least offer him arbitration. If he goes elsewhere, they should get a supplemental first round pick. If he can’t find another team he comes back on a one-year deal, which would be great. 150 innings of Garcia instead of Noesi as a starter makes the Yankees about two wins better.

So the Yankees have some work to do this offseason, IMO.

--Posted at 6:07 pm by SG / 32 Comments | - (0)

Monday, October 24, 2011

BBTF: 2012 ZiPS Projections - New York Yankees

While we wait for me to take the Marcels and change the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better, the first set of 2012 Yankee projections are out. With CHONE now being gobbled up by some MLB team, these are probably the best projections available now, and I know Dan Szymborski puts a ton of work into making it so.

I’ll just show the starters here..

Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Robinson Cano     L    2B   29   .299 .347 .506 156 609  92 182  41   5  25 103  40  76   6   3  121
Mark Teixeira     B    1B   32   .263 .359 .495 147 562  88 148  32   1  32 109  76 112   2   1  122
Curtis Granderson L    CF   31   .256 .346 .495 147 547 104 140  22   8  31  92  71 143  16   7  118
Alex Rodriguez    R    3B   36   .264 .350 .474 108 405  62 107  20   1  21  82  51  89   7   2  115
Jesus Montero     R    C    22   .271 .333 .486 156 576  79 156  37   3  27  93  55 116   0   0  112
Nick Swisher      B    RF   31   .253 .358 .456 142 498  76 126  27   1  24  82  80 129   1   2  113
Andruw Jones      R    LF   35   .234 .335 .455  80 222  31  52  10   0  13  38  32  65   3   1  106
Brett Gardner     L    LF   28   .260 .352 .370 149 462  80 120  17   8   6  39  61  91  43  10   91
Russell Martin    R    C    29   .249 .346 .382 123 422  60 105  17   0  13  58  58  76  10   4   92
Jorge Posada      B    1B   40   .238 .329 .414 105 324  35  77  15   0  14  47  41  80   1   1   94
Eduardo Nunez     R    SS   25   .273 .312 .379 141 480  57 131  23   2   8  48  26  64  21   7   81
Derek Jeter       R    SS   38   .268 .329 .362 129 542  78 145  22   4   7  58  46  84  14   5   82

And some selected pitchers.

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
CC Sabathia       L      31     3.55    17    8   31   31   218.0  211   86   19   63  189   126
Ivan Nova         R      25     4.44    13   10   31   30   178.3  189   88   20   60  111   100
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Bartolo Colon     R      39     4.77     7    6   20   19   111.3  121   59   17   32   78    93
Phil Hughes       R      26     4.84     9    8   25   22   122.7  127   66   18   44   96    92
Freddy Garcia     R      35     4.85     9    8   23   22   128.0  143   69   18   40   75    92
Hector Noesi      R      25     5.24     6    6   32   14   103.0  120   60   14   35   68    85
A.J. Burnett      R      35     5.31     9   10   28   27   159.3  170   94   25   70  128    84
David Phelps      R      25     5.40     6    7   23   22   121.7  148   73   18   39   73    83
Manny Banuelos    L      21     5.45     7    8   25   25   115.7  128   70   15   65   85    82
Dellin Betances   R      24     5.66     5    7   24   24   105.0  111   66   15   72   85    79

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
David Robertson   R      27     3.06     4    2   69    0    64.7   50   22    5   34   87   146
Mariano Rivera    R      42     3.12     3    1   53    0    49.0   44   17    4   10   43   143
Rafael Soriano    R      32     3.14     4    2   67    0    63.0   50   22    6   21   74   142
Joba Chamberlain  R      26     3.88     3    2   46    0    46.3   43   20    5   14   45   115
Boone Logan       L      27     3.91     4    2   62    0    48.3   46   21    5   17   48   114
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Pedro Feliciano   L      35     4.30     2    1   33    0    23.0   24   11    2   10   18   104
Cory Wade         R      29     4.61     4    4   47    0    56.7   62   29    8   13   37    97
Luis Ayala        R      34     4.62     4    3   44    0    50.7   56   26    6   19   32    96
Sergio Mitre      R      31     5.08     1    1   26    2    44.3   49   25    6   17   22    88

Go to the link to see whatever players I didn’t include here.

Projections are inherently limited, so remember to take these for what they are. They are rough estimates of a player’s current talent level. They are not predictions for what a player is going to do in 2012, and they are not playing time predictions either.

--Posted at 11:12 am by SG / 73 Comments | - (0)

Friday, September 30, 2011

2011 ALDS Preview: Tigers vs. Yankees

The first obstacle in the quest to end the dreaded curse of The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske is the Detroit Tigers.

Seriously, it has been 694 days, 11 hours, 15 minutes, and 45 seconds since the New York Yankees have won a World Series. We have suffered long enough, haven’t we? When will this infernal madness end?

So how big of an obstacle are the Tigers? Let’s take a look.

First, I’ll acknowledge the obvious fact that the Tigers played in and won the AL Central which is probably the weakest division in the AL.

I’ll then say that it doesn’t matter. This is a very good team, and it’s not a stretch to envision them representing the AL in the World Series.

If you read the Rays/Rangers preview you can skip the next paragraph.

I don’t particularly find any series previews that focus on what a team did in the preceding full season of much use. It doesn’t really matter if a team scored 5.2 runs per game and allowed 4.2 runs per game over the preceding six months. Rosters change, injuries happen, players come and go, talent changes, and player and team performance is often subject to fluctuations that are not predictive. What I want to know is how many runs will the team and roster as currently configured score and allow. Because of that, for these previews I’ll be using projections in lieu of 2011 stats. Despite having my own system in CAIRO, I’m going to use the Hardball Times’s Oliver forecasts since I haven’t had the time to re-run CAIRO for this year. Oliver is updated weekly during the season and includes 2011 MLEs for players who saw time in the minors.

The biggest consideration in trying to see how any series may shape up is allocating playing time. So here are depth charts for the two teams, based on the assumption that each team will make 25 outs at the plate over 5 games and that pitchers will combine for 45 innings. Since I didn’t have official postseason rosters while writing parts of these, some of it is guesswork and is subject to change.

Here are the Oliver projections for the Tigers’ postseason position players.

Name	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Jackson, Austin	CF	21	.263/.315/.374	14	2.24	.303	.311	.300
Kelly, Don	3B	21	.268/.312/.413	14	2.34	.314	.286	.317
Young, Delmon	LF	21	.283/.314/.446	14	2.52	.327	.344	.320
Cabrera, Miguel	1B	21	.334/.422/.602	12	4.11	.435	.455	.429
Martinez, Victor	C	21	.312/.365/.480	13	3.08	.367	.372	.364
Peralta, Jhonny	SS	21	.270/.324/.426	14	2.50	.326	.339	.321
Avila, Alex	C	21	.270/.351/.456	14	2.89	.350	.327	.356
Dirks, Andy	RF	21	.265/.311/.415	14	2.45	.315	.294	.318
Santiago, Ramon	2B	21	.276/.319/.394	14	2.30	.307	.304	.308
Starter Total		189	.282/.337/.444	125	24.42	.338	.338	.338
Bench	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Betemit, Wilson	IF	0	.259/.323/.424	0	0.00	.325	.298	.334
Ordonez, Magglio	OF	0	.282/.344/.412	0	0.00	.334	.352	.329
Raburn, Ryan	OF	0	.268/.317/.465	0	0.00	.334	.349	.323
Rhymes, Will	2B	0	.272/.326/.361	0	0.00	.303	.283	.307
Inge, Brandon	3B	0	.230/.304/.384	0	0.00	.303	.328	.294
Worth, Danny	IF	0	.229/.284/.328	0	0.00	.272	.283	.263
Kelly, Don	UT	0	.268/.312/.413	0	0.00	.314	.286	.317
Santos, Omir	C	0	.228/.255/.333	0	0.00	.255	.264	.250
Bench Total
Team Total		189	.282/.337/.444	125	24.42	.338	.338	.338

Outs: Outs at the plate (assumes 25 outs per 9 innings, calculated as (1 - OBP) times PA + GDP per PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
vs. L/R: Projected wOBA splits vs. LHP/RHP using regressed platoon splits

Rather than guess about how the Tigers may allocate playing time, I just gave the expected starting lineup all 125 outs.

The biggest problem here is Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera’s pretty much the best hitter in the AL. In fact, only one player has been a better hitter than him over the last three years, and that’s Albert Pujols. That projected wOBA of .455 vs. LHP is terrifying for Game 1. The Yankees probably don’t have much room for error facing Verlander, so the Cabrera/Sabathia matchup is probably going to be the one to watch. You can see by the OBP of the rest of the team that keeping people like Austin Jackson, Don Kelly and Delmon Young off the bases in front of Cabrera is going to be imperative.

The Tigers overall don’t have much of a projected platoon split, so the Yankees’ lack of left-handed pitching shouldn’t be a big deal.

I don’t think any Tigers fans would disagree that the Yankees’ lineup is better. Their hopes are going to lay on their pitching staff, and that’s not a bad position to be in.

Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Verlander, Justin	SP1	14	4.8	3.11	2.89	3.05
Fister, Doug	SP2	6	2.6	3.94	3.67	3.49
Scherzer, Max	SP3	6	3.1	4.61	4.10	3.98
Porcello, Rick	SP4	5	2.7	4.88	4.51	4.35
Penny, Brad	SP5	0	0.0	5.43	4.85	4.65



Starter Total		31	13.3	3.85	3.54	3.52
Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Valverde, Jose	CL	3	1.3	3.90	3.61	3.72
Benoit, Joaquin	SU	3	1.1	3.25	3.01	3.10
Alburquerque, Al	SU	2	0.9	4.20	3.89	3.71
Coke, Phil	SU	2	1.0	4.40	4.07	3.68
Pauley, David	MR	2	1.1	4.76	4.41	4.44
Perry, Ryan	MR	1	0.5	4.61	4.27	4.12
Schlereth, Daniel	MR	1	0.5	4.85	4.49	4.31
Marte, Luis	LR	0	0.0	5.26	4.87	4.97
Below, Duane	LR	0	0.0	5.49	5.08	5.33
	LR	0	0.0
Reliever Total		14	6.4	4.12	3.81	3.75
Team Total		45	19.7	3.93	3.62	3.59

RA: Runs allowed per 9, calculated as 1.08*ERA
ERA: Earned runs allowed per 9
FIP: Fielding independent pitching

Justin Verlander’s obviously the man here. He’s been the best pitcher in baseball this year and is a worthy MVP candidate. He’s backed up by mid-season acquisition Doug Fister, who’s been sublime for the Tigers. The Tigers are 9-2 in his 11 starts, and he’s pitched 70.1 innings and allowed just 19 runs. He’s faced 273 batters and walked 5 of them. Seriously. He’s probably not quite that good, but he’d project as the second-best starter on the Yankees.

Jim Leyland has said that he will not pitch Verlander on three days rest, so I’m giving Rick Porcello five innings. I don’t know if things would change if the Tigers go down 2-1. If they did that, they could throw Fister in Game 5 and not use Porcello in the rotation at all.

The Tigers’ defense has been about average overall, not much different than the Yankees. So I’m not going to bother with talking about that.

So, how about the Yankees’ projections?

Name	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Jeter, Derek	SS	22	.306/.363/.416	14	2.83	.345	.369	.337
Granderson, Curtis	CF	22	.259/.342/.496	14	3.24	.358	.314	.374
Cano, Robinson	2B	22	.312/.359/.511	14	3.38	.374	.358	.381
Rodriguez, Alex	3B	18	.289/.367/.527	11	2.89	.382	.389	.380
Teixeira, Mark	1B	22	.265/.357/.498	14	3.29	.369	.380	.364
Swisher, Nick	RF	21	.271/.364/.475	13	3.03	.364	.375	.359
Posada, Jorge	DH	16	.259/.345/.448	10	2.12	.347	.347	.347
Martin, Russell	C	21	.252/.345/.380	14	2.39	.326	.344	.320
Gardner, Brett	LF	19	.269/.353/.376	12	2.34	.326	.306	.332
Starter Total		183	.277/.355/.460	118	25.50	.355	.354	.355
Bench	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Montero, Jesus	DH	4	.278/.329/.483	3	0.54	.348	.361	.340
Jones, Andruw	OF	2	.251/.344/.502	1	0.30	.363	.381	.357
Nunez, Eduardo	IF	0	.278/.308/.381	0	0.00	.301	.302	.300
Chavez, Eric	3B	4	.245/.296/.355	3	0.38	.288	.257	.300
Romine, Austin	C	0	.246/.289/.364	0	0.00	.287	.300	.283
Dickerson, Chris	OF	0	.239/.315/.341	0	0.00	.295	.272	.299
Pena, Ramiro	IF	0	.239/.283/.327	0	0.00	.269	.256	.273
Cervelli, Francisco	C	0	.263/.314/.365	0	0.00	.298	.310	.293
Bench Total		10	.260/.319/.435	7	1.22	.327	.323	.327
Team Total		193	.276/.353/.458	125	26.72	.353	.352	.354

I’ve relegated Jesus Montero to pinch-hitting status, since DH vs. LHP is effectively a non-position vs. Detroit. I suppose we may see him pinch-hit for Posada if a one of Phil Coke/Daniel Schlereth is on the mound. Or he could get a start if Posada doesn’t look so good. Statistically, Posada’s projection vs. RHP is better than Montero’s so I suppose it’s the logical approach. I’m also not sanguine on A-Rod playing every inning so I’ve given Chavez four PA, and I’m assuming we may see Andruw Jones pinch-hit for TSBG in a late situation vs. a LHP where an XBH would be of additional benefit.

Oliver thinks the Yankees have the best offense in the postseason, and I’d agree with that. Unfortunately, the Yankees have to pitch too.

Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Sabathia, CC	SP1	14	5.8	3.70	3.43	3.28
Nova, Ivan	SP2	12	6.4	4.77	4.36	4.33
Garcia, Freddy	SP3	5	2.6	4.60	4.36	4.33
Colon, Bartolo	SP4	0	0.0	4.82	4.04	3.97
Burnett, A.J.	SP5	0	0.0	5.21	4.82	4.49
Hughes, Phil	SP6	0	0.0	4.45	4.12	4.17
Betances, Dellin	SP7	0	0.0	5.36	4.96	4.83
Brackman, Andrew	SP8	0	0.0	6.80	6.30	5.88
Starter Total		31	14.7	4.26	3.94	3.86
Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Rivera, Mariano	CL	3	1.0	3.03	2.81	2.89
Robertson, David	SU	3	1.2	3.75	3.47	3.05
Soriano, Rafael	SU	2	0.8	3.61	3.34	3.64
Logan, Boone	SU	2	1.0	4.32	4.00	3.77
Wade, Cory	MR	2	1.0	4.38	4.06	4.09
Ayala, Luis	MR	2	1.0	4.50	4.17	3.92
Noesi, Hector	MR	0	0.0	4.59	4.25	4.03
Proctor, Scott	LR	0	0.0	5.78	5.35	5.21
Laffey, Aaron	LR	0	0.0	5.56	5.15	4.59
Kontos, George	LR	0	0.0	5.38	4.98	5.02
Reliever Total		14	6.0	3.86	3.57	3.48
Team Total		45	20.7	4.14	3.82	3.74

The assumption here is CC on three days rest. I’m assuming that Burnett and Hughes won’t pitch even though they’re on the roster, but if they do pitch their innings would probably just replace Ayala or Wade’s and it shouldn’t make a big difference.

The Yankees probably have the worst projected rotation in the postseason. CC’s as good as anyone, but after that there’s some concern about Nova and Garcia. I do think that projection is a little bearish on Nova since we have evidence that his new slider has made a meaningful improvement that wouldn’t be captured in a projection system.

Nova pre-slider: 226 BF, 9.3% BB/BF, 11.5% K/BF, 5.19 RA, 4.29 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 4.92 xFIP
Nova post-slider: 278 BF, 7.5% BB/BF, 15.1% K/BF, 3.52 RA, 3.44 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 4.03 xFIP

The Yankee bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this year, and although the projections think most of them pitched above their head they’re probably still better than Detroit’s from top to bottom. So the Yankees should be able to mitigate their slight disadvantage in the rotation by using the relievers aggressively. I can imagine that any David Robertson/Miguel Cabrera battles are going to be must-see baseball.

These depth charts say this.

Team	Gms	RS	RA	wpct	p162
DET	5	24.4	19.7	.600	97
NYA	5	26.7	20.7	.620	100

If I play the series out 10,000 times in my Monte Carlo simulator I get these odds.

Yankees: 53.9%
Tigers: 46.1%

If the Tigers do decide to use Verlander in Game 4 and Fister in Game 5 they improve to about a .612 wpct/99 win team. Basically, those two teams are equivalent. The Yankees get the slight edge of one extra home game if necessary. In that case the odds look like this.

Yankees: 51.9%
Tigers: 48.1%

--Posted at 10:58 am by SG / 60 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

What are the AL Wild Card Odds as of Today

According to Baseball Prospectus, the Red Sox are still favored to win the wild card over the Rays, 55.1% to 44.9%. This is based on assumed team strengths of .600 for the Yankees, .562 for the Red Sox, .528 for the Rays and .434 for the Orioles.

The first and most obvious problem here is assuming that a Yankee team that’s not playing for anything is going to be the equivalent of a 97 win team, particularly with them already announcing they won’t be pitching any pitchers that are going to be on the postseason roster in tomorrow’s game. Similarly, we have enough information to look at all four teams and see how strong they really may be over the next two games to see if the odds change appreciably.

I’m going to use the format below when I start my postseason previews. I’m using The Hardball Times’s Oliver forecasts, since I haven’t had time to re-run CAIRO for 2011. These projections are the most up-to-date ones (updated weekly) and include 2011 MLEs, so I think they’re solid. These were last updated on Monday.

First, here’s a rough stab at the teams I’d expect the Yankees and Rays to field over the next two days.

Name	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Jeter, Derek	SS	5	.306/.363/.416	3	0.64	.345	.369	.337
Granderson, Curtis	CF	5	.259/.342/.496	3	0.74	.358	.314	.374
Teixeira, Mark	1B	5	.265/.357/.498	3	0.75	.369	.380	.364
Rodriguez, Alex	3B	5	.289/.367/.527	3	0.80	.382	.389	.380
Cano, Robinson	2B	5	.312/.359/.511	3	0.77	.374	.358	.381
Swisher, Nick	RF	5	.271/.364/.475	3	0.72	.364	.375	.359
Montero, Jesus	DH	5	.278/.329/.483	3	0.67	.348	.361	.340
Martin, Russell	C	5	.252/.345/.380	3	0.57	.326	.344	.320
Gardner, Brett	LF	5	.269/.353/.376	3	0.62	.326	.306	.332
Starter Total		45	.278/.353/.463	29	6.28	.355	.355	.354
Bench	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Posada, Jorge	DH	5	.259/.345/.448	3	0.66	.347	.347	.347
Jones, Andruw	OF	4	.251/.344/.502	3	0.60	.363	.381	.357
Nunez, Eduardo	IF	5	.278/.308/.381	3	0.51	.301	.302	.300
Chavez, Eric	3B	4	.245/.296/.355	3	0.38	.288	.257	.300
Romine, Austin	C	4	.246/.289/.364	3	0.38	.287	.300	.283
Dickerson, Chris	OF	4	.239/.315/.341	3	0.40	.295	.272	.299
Pena, Ramiro	IF	4	.239/.283/.327	3	0.32	.269	.256	.273
Cervelli, Francisco	C	0	.263/.314/.365	0	0.00	.298	.310	.293
Bench Total		30	.252/.312/.389	21	3.24	.308	.304	.309
Team Total		75	.268/.337/.433	50	9.52	.336	.335	.336

Name	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Jennings, Desmond	LF	8	.266/.334/.415	5	1.01	.328	.340	.321
Upton, B.J.	CF	8	.235/.328/.402	5	0.98	.323	.339	.316
Longoria, Evan	3B	8	.268/.365/.510	5	1.26	.376	.393	.369
Zobrist, Ben	2B	8	.261/.358/.437	5	1.09	.349	.357	.345
Damon, Johnny	DH	8	.272/.343/.430	5	1.05	.339	.322	.346
Joyce, Matt	RF	8	.263/.349/.463	5	1.12	.352	.319	.357
Kotchman, Casey	1B	8	.271/.335/.395	5	0.91	.324	.300	.331
Jaso, John	C	4	.247/.329/.357	3	0.41	.309	.286	.313
Rodriguez, Sean	SS	4	.237/.315/.402	3	0.45	.314	.332	.304
Starter Total		64	.260/.342/.429	42	8.29	.338	.335	.337
Bench	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Ruggiano, Justin	OF	1	.250/.301/.395	1	0.11	.304	.312	.297
Shoppach, Kelly	C	4	.208/.303/.379	3	0.41	.302	.323	.292
Johnson, Elliot	IF	0	.247/.286/.384	0	0.00	.286	.292	.280
Fuld, Sam	OF	1	.250/.322/.357	1	0.10	.304	.284	.310
Guyer, Brandon	OF	1	.281/.325/.444	1	0.13	.330	.338	.315
Canzler, Russ	IF	0	.263/.328/.450	0	0.00	.337	.371	.303
Lobaton, Jose	C	0	.241/.316/.365	0	0.00	.303	.301	.304
Brignac, Reid	SS	4	.235/.276/.336	3	0.31	.269	.246	.274
Bench Total		11	.233/.297/.368	8	1.06	.293	.292	.289
Team Total		75	.256/.335/.420	50	9.35	.331	.329	.330

Even at less than full strength, the Yankees probably have the better offense on the field.

For the pitching, it’s a bit trickier but I’ll take a shot anyway.

Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Sabathia, CC	SP1	0	0	3.70	3.43	3.28
Colon, Bartolo	SP2	5	3	4.82	4.04	3.97
Nova, Ivan	SP3	0	0	4.77	4.36	4.33
Garcia, Freddy	SP4	0	0	4.60	4.36	4.33
Burnett, A.J.	SP5	0	0	5.21	4.82	4.49
Hughes, Phil	SP6	0	0	4.45	4.12	4.17
Betances, Dellin	SP7	4	2	5.36	4.96	4.83
Brackman, Andrew	SP8	0	0	6.80	6.30	5.88
Starter Total		9	5	5.06	4.45	4.35
Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Rivera, Mariano	CL	1	0	3.03	2.81	2.89
Robertson, David	SU	1	0	3.75	3.47	3.05
Soriano, Rafael	SU	1	0	3.61	3.34	3.64
Logan, Boone	SU	1	0	4.32	4.00	3.77
Wade, Cory	MR	1	0	4.38	4.06	4.09
Ayala, Luis	MR	1	1	4.50	4.17	3.92
Noesi, Hector	MR	0	0	4.59	4.25	4.03
Proctor, Scott	LR	1	1	5.78	5.35	5.21
Laffey, Aaron	LR	1	1	5.56	5.15	4.59
Kontos, George	LR	1	1	5.38	4.98	5.02
Reliever Total		9	4	4.48	4.15	4.02
Team Total		18	10	4.77	4.30	4.19

RA: Runs allowed per 9, calculated as 1.08*ERA
ERA: Earned runs allowed per 9
FIP: Fielding independent pitching

Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Price, David	SP1	7	3	3.84	3.41	3.50
Shields, James	SP2	0	0	4.03	3.70	3.68
Hellickson, Jeremy	SP3	7	3	3.85	3.55	3.97
Niemann, Jeff	SP4	0	0	4.11	3.95	4.11
Davis, Wade	SP5	0	0	4.61	4.34	4.51
Moore, Matt	SP6	0	0	4.57	4.23	4.10
	SP7	0
	SP8	0
Starter Total		14	6	3.84	3.48	3.74
Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Farnsworth, Kyle	CL	1	0	3.53	3.27	3.23
Peralta, Joel	SU	1	0	3.35	3.10	3.50
Howell, J.P.	SU	1	1	4.64	4.30	4.08
Cruz, Juan	SU	1	1	4.75	4.40	4.40
McGee, Jake	MR	0	0	4.56	4.22	4.03
Gomes, Brandon	MR	0	0	4.21	3.90	3.71
Ramos, Cesar	MR	0	0	5.18	4.80	4.43
De La Rosa, Dane	LR	0	0	5.03	4.66	4.40
Sonnanstine, Andy	LR	0	0	5.43	5.03	4.88

Reliever Total		4	2	4.07	3.77	3.80
Team Total		18	8	3.89	3.54	3.75

Obviously the assumption here is 18 innings over two games. I don’t know if the Yankees would actually start Dellin Betances tomorrow, but I’m not sure who else they’d consider and the difference over four projected innings is minimal.

I am not going to bother with defense here, since it’s mostly covered in the pitching projections and trying to tease out two games of defense is more likely to be counter-productive than tell us anything useful.

How about the Red Sox and Orioles?

Name	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Ellsbury, Jacoby	CF	8	.306/.349/.482	5	1.20	.357	.341	.363
Crawford, Carl	LF	8	.286/.327/.443	5	1.05	.333	.304	.345
Pedroia, Dustin	2B	8	.290/.362/.454	5	1.13	.355	.370	.349
Ortiz, David	DH	8	.286/.367/.548	5	1.32	.390	.354	.405
Gonzalez, Adrian	1B	8	.327/.412/.588	5	1.51	.426	.389	.443
Lowrie, Jed	3B	8	.259/.316/.409	5	0.91	.316	.341	.303
Drew, J.D.	RF	8	.263/.346/.454	5	1.06	.349	.319	.359
Saltalamacchia, Jarrod	C	8	.235/.290/.416	6	0.86	.305	.285	.316
Scutaro, Marco	SS	8	.281/.347/.394	5	0.96	.328	.361	.295
Starter Total		72	.281/.346/.465	47	10.00	.351	.340	.353
Bench	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Aviles, Mike	IF	0	.268/.296/.413	0	0.00	.305	.319	.298
Varitek, Jason	C	0	.234/.303/.434	0	0.00	.317	.332	.311
Jackson, Conor	OF	2	.250/.324/.364	1	0.21	.309	.325	.302
Aviles, Mike	IF	0	.268/.296/.413	0	0.00	.305	.319	.298
McDonald, Darnell	OF	0	.269/.316/.449	0	0.00	.326	.339	.310
Gathright, Joey	OF	0	.239/.291/.311	0	0.00	.269	.255	.272
Lavarnway, Ryan	C	2	.255/.332/.467	1	0.27	.345	.358	.338
Drew, J.D.	OF	0	.263/.346/.454	0	0.00	.349	.319	.359
Bench Total		4	.252/.328/.415	3	0.48	.327	.342	.320
Team Total		76	.280/.345/.462	50	10.48	.350	.340	.351

Name	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Angle, Matt	LF	8	.250/.309/.313	6	0.72	.280	.224	.336
Hardy, J.J.	SS	8	.260/.305/.430	6	0.93	.317	.335	.311
Markakis, Nick	RF	8	.288/.352/.419	5	1.02	.341	.318	.351
Guerrero, Vladimir	DH	8	.295/.329/.460	5	1.03	.341	.356	.336
Wieters, Matt	C	8	.261/.324/.414	5	0.93	.324	.327	.323
Jones, Adam	CF	8	.282/.318/.457	5	1.00	.333	.336	.332
Reynolds, Mark	1B	8	.236/.332/.521	5	1.21	.362	.383	.355
Davis, Chris	3B	8	.271/.321/.476	5	1.08	.341	.318	.350
Andino, Robert	2B	8	.254/.297/.361	6	0.75	.289	.303	.283
Starter Total		72	.267/.321/.428	49	8.67	.325	.322	.331
Bench	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Tatum, Craig	C	0	.219/.276/.292	0	0.00	.256	.268	.252
Fox, Jake	C	0	.265/.323/.476	0	0.00	.343	.349	.339
Adams, Ryan	3B	0	.258/.307/.385	0	0.00	.305	.336	.275
Bell, Josh	IF	0	.239/.290/.407	0	0.00	.303	.308	.301
Hudson, Kyle	IF	0	.226/.282/.263	0	0.00	.250	.230	.252
Reimold, Nolan	OF	1	.255/.334/.437	1	0.13	.337	.349	.330
Florimon Jr., Pedro	OF	0	.224/.278/.329	0	0.00	.268	.268	.268

Bench Total		1	#N/A	1	0.13	.337	.349	.330
Team Total		73	#N/A	50	8.80	.325	.323	.331

Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Beckett, Josh	SP1	0	0	3.76	3.51	3.85
Lester, Jon	SP2	7	3	3.63	3.43	3.45
Bedard, Erik	SP3	5	2	4.02	3.62	3.59
Lackey, John	SP4	0	0	4.89	4.51	4.14
Wakefield, Tim	SP5	0	0	4.93	4.61	5.27
Miller, Andrew	SP6	0	0	6.40	5.58	5.01
Weiland, Kyle	SP7	0	0	5.56	5.15	4.97
Buchholz, Clay	SP8	0	0	4.02	3.59	4.14
Starter Total		12	5	3.79	3.51	3.51
Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Papelbon, Jonathan	CL	2	1	3.29	3.05	2.93
Bard, Daniel	SU	2	1	3.37	3.12	3.51
Wheeler, Dan	SU	1	0	3.96	3.67	4.11
Albers, Matt	SU	0	0	4.59	4.25	3.97
Morales, Franklin	MR	0	0	4.88	4.52	4.75
Atchison, Scott	MR	0	0	3.81	3.53	3.57
Doubront, Felix	MR	0	0	5.35	4.95	4.67
Aceves, Alfredo	LR	1	0	4.00	3.70	4.02
Bowden, Michael	LR	0	0	4.97	4.60	4.79
Buchholz, Clay	LR	0	0	3.88	3.59	4.14
Tazawa, Junichi	LR	6	2	3.55	3.29	3.50
Team Total		18	7	3.71	3.43	3.51

Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Britton, Zach	SP1	5	2	4.44	4.11	4.04
Simon, Alfredo	SP2	5	3	5.13	4.60	4.48
Matusz, Brian	SP3	0	0	4.96	4.69	4.59
Hunter, Tommy	SP4	0	0	4.60	4.38	4.48
Vandenhurk, Rick	SP5	0	0	5.64	5.09	5.38
Guthrie, Jeremy	SP6	0	0	4.39	4.14	4.41
	SP7	0
	SP8	0
Starter Total		10	5	4.78	4.36	4.26
Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Johnson, Jim	CL	1	0	3.93	3.64	3.65
Gregg, Kevin	SU	1	1	4.76	4.41	4.35
Patton, Troy	SU	1	1	5.18	4.80	4.72
Bergesen, Brad	SU	1	1	4.91	4.55	4.57
Accardo, Jeremy	MR	1	1	4.78	4.43	4.18
Berken, Jason	MR	1	1	5.28	4.89	4.40
Eyre, Willie	MR	1	1	4.70	4.35	4.25
Rapada, Clay	LR	1	0	4.44	4.11	3.76
Reyes, Jo-Jo	LR	0	0	5.72	5.30	4.92
Strop, Pedro	LR	0	0	4.59	4.25	3.90
Reliever Total		8	4	4.75	4.40	4.23
Team Total		18	10	4.77	4.37	4.25

Yeah, yeah, yeah, so what does all this nerdy crap mean?

It means this.

Team	Gms	RS	RA	wpct
NYA	2	9.5	9.5	.499
BOS	2	10.5	7.4	.656
TB	2	9.4	7.8	.584
BAL	2	8.8	9.5	.471

And if we use those numbers adjusted for home-field advantage to play out the last two games of the season, here’s what I get for the wild card odds.

Rays: 50.9%
Red Sox: 49.1%

Should be interesting.

--Posted at 4:50 pm by SG / 12 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

2011 Postseason Odds Through Games of September 20

TM	W	L	Div	WC	PL
Tigers	94	68	100.000%	0.000%	100.000%
Phillies	103	59	100.000%	0.000%	100.000%
Brewers	96	66	99.965%	0.028%	99.993%
Yankees	97	65	98.525%	1.345%	99.870%
Diamondbacks	93	69	99.080%	0.161%	99.241%
Rangers	93	69	98.705%	0.144%	98.849%
Braves	92	70	0.000%	85.614%	85.614%
Red Sox	92	70	1.275%	81.829%	83.104%
Rays	90	72	0.200%	15.849%	16.049%
Cardinals	89	73	0.035%	12.708%	12.743%
Giants	88	74	0.920%	1.489%	2.409%
Angels	88	74	1.295%	0.833%	2.128%

Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

--Posted at 7:30 am by SG / 6 Comments | - (0)

Monday, September 5, 2011

Monte Carlo Standings and Postseason Odds Through September 4, 2011

American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Yankees	99	63	870	657	63.0%	36.7%	99.7%
Red Sox	98	64	860	694	36.9%	62.3%	99.3%
Rays	87	75	705	630	0.1%	0.9%	1.0%
Blue Jays	79	83	745	749	-	-	-
Orioles	64	98	694	841	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Tigers	89	73	740	724	94.2%	-	94.2%
White Sox	82	80	672	681	4.0%	-	4.0%
Indians	80	82	688	720	1.9%	-	1.9%
Twins	71	91	662	791	-	-	-
Royals	67	95	706	782	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Rangers	91	71	815	696	92.1%	0.0%	92.1%
Angels	86	76	666	650	7.9%	0.0%	7.9%
Athletics	75	87	654	668	-	-	-
Mariners	69	93	574	678	-	-	-
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Phillies	103	59	736	555	98.0%	2.0%	100.0%
Braves	94	68	678	605	2.0%	95.4%	97.4%
Mets	80	82	723	733	-	0.0%	0.0%
Nationals	75	87	632	688	-	-	-
Marlins	73	89	647	717	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Brewers	95	67	723	659	98.7%	0.2%	98.9%
Cardinals	86	76	761	714	1.3%	2.1%	3.3%
Reds	81	81	751	711	-	-	-
Pirates	74	88	633	706	-	-	-
Cubs	70	92	664	768	-	-	-
Astros	56	106	610	787	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Diamondbacks	89	73	713	689	83.2%	0.1%	83.3%
Giants	85	77	575	585	15.9%	0.3%	16.2%
Dodgers	80	82	641	630	0.8%	0.0%	0.8%
Rockies	78	84	744	751	0.1%	-	0.1%
Padres	71	91	614	637	-	-	-

Not looking like too much suspense aside from seeding at this point.

--Posted at 9:14 am by SG / 10 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

The Implications of this Series with Boston

At this point, I have Boston as around a 2-1 favorite for winning the AL East.

So, here’s how that changes based on the various potential outcomes for this series.

Now	W	L	Div
Red Sox	100.0	62.0	67.5%
Yankees	97.9	64.1	32.5%
Yankee Sweep	W	L	Div
Yankees	98.8	63.2	56.5%
Red Sox	98.0	64.0	43.0%
Yankees 2-1	W	L	Div
Red Sox	99.4	62.6	59.5%
Yankees	98.0	64.0	40.5%
Boston 2-1	W	L	Div
Red Sox	100.1	62.0	71.5%
Yankees	97.6	64.4	28.5%
Boston sweep	W	L	Div
Red Sox	100.9	61.1	84.0%
Yankees	96.2	65.8	16.0%

Tampa Bay is still technically in the divisional picture, their chances just aren’t registering above the .5% threshold needed to be seen here. The fact that Boston and the Yankees play each other six times makes it that much harder for the Rays to catch both.

So basically, if the Yankees still want a realistic shot at winning the division, they have to sweep this series. I probably don’t have to tell you that the likelihood of that is slim.

--Posted at 7:39 am by SG / 34 Comments | - (0)

Monday, August 15, 2011

MLB 2011 Monte Carlo Postseason Odds Through August 15

As requested by ml242.

American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Red Sox	98.1	63.9	862	683	51.1%	46.8%	97.8%
Yankees	97.8	64.2	854	647	48.6%	49.1%	97.7%
Rays	85.6	76.4	709	656	0.3%	3.3%	3.6%
Blue Jays	80.4	81.6	741	746	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%
Orioles	63.6	98.4	693	841	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Tigers	86.6	75.4	720	727	66.1%	0.0%	66.2%
White Sox	82.4	79.6	666	677	19.6%	0.0%	19.6%
Indians	80.8	81.2	699	712	13.4%	0.0%	13.4%
Twins	75.0	87.0	661	766	0.9%	-	0.9%
Royals	66.6	95.4	696	783	0.0%	-	0.0%
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Rangers	90.7	71.3	811	680	82.8%	0.1%	82.9%
Angels	84.8	77.2	634	629	17.1%	0.4%	17.5%
Athletics	75.2	86.8	644	659	0.1%	-	0.1%
Mariners	71.5	90.5	568	650	0.0%	-	0.0%
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Phillies	102.3	59.7	723	561	96.3%	3.6%	99.9%
Braves	92.0	70.0	690	618	3.7%	78.8%	82.5%
Mets	78.4	83.6	724	726	-	0.3%	0.3%
Marlins	76.7	85.3	651	699	-	0.1%	0.1%
Nationals	76.2	85.8	641	691	-	0.1%	0.1%
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Brewers	91.4	70.6	717	676	77.7%	3.5%	81.2%
Cardinals	86.7	75.3	763	705	20.8%	6.7%	27.4%
Reds	81.0	81.0	756	703	1.4%	0.7%	2.1%
Pirates	75.0	87.0	628	693	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Cubs	73.3	88.7	682	781	0.0%	-	0.0%
Astros	54.7	107.3	604	797	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Giants	89.0	73.0	591	584	68.0%	2.5%	70.5%
Diamondbacks	86.1	75.9	725	715	30.6%	3.6%	34.2%
Rockies	77.2	84.8	732	739	0.6%	0.0%	0.6%
Dodgers	77.2	84.8	618	641	0.6%	0.1%	0.7%
Padres	73.7	88.3	620	639	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%

The Yankees have a slightly easier group of opponents down the stretch than Boston, but Boston has that half game lead in hand, and a more favorable split of home/road games. Really though, the AL East is a tossup at this point, and unless the Yankees can do the unimaginable and actually win a series against Boston, they won’t deserve to win the East anyway.

I have to say, it’s looking like we’re not going to have much in the way of pennant races going forward, although a few races are tight enough to be interesting depending on how things go.

Of course that won’t stop Bud Selig from trying to dilute the postseason even more.

--Posted at 1:45 pm by SG / 16 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, August 4, 2011

The A.J. Thing

After a 2010 that will be remembered as one of the worst seasons by a Yankee starter ever, the hope was that A.J. Burnett would rebound enough to justify the remaining three years on his contract, or at least make them look like less of an anchor.

Burnett entered last night with a respectable 4.23 ERA, but the truth he hasn’t really pitched that well this year. Before last night’s debacle, Here’s how Burnett’s performance compared to his average projection pro-rated to his 138 innings pitched.

	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	BABIP
Actual	22	138	116	71	65	20	63	120	4.62	4.23	4.86	.255
Avg Projection	23	138	140	78	72	17	57	119	5.08	4.70	4.55	.304

RA/ERA: Runs/Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play

He’d been better as far as runs allowed, but the peripheral stats didn’t support it, and that’s even ignoring the fact that offense in MLB is down in general. He’d allowed more HRs and walks than projected and his K rate was essentially the same. The only reason he had a better RA/ERA than projected was because he’d allowed a BABIP against of .255 compared to his projected .304. His career BABIP against is .288 and his BABIP in 2008-2010 was around .309. So it was probably a safe bet that a correction was coming, and it started last night.

Here’s how his performance now compares to his pro-rated projection including last night.

	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	BABIP
Actual	23	143	129	78	72	21	63	123	4.92	4.54	4.86	.268
pProjection	24	143	145	80	75	18	59	123	5.08	4.70	4.55	.304

To be fair to Burnett, he didn’t get the win last night because he gave up 13 hits in 4.1 innings. He didn’t walk anyone, which would have been infuriating with a 13-1 lead. He faced 26 batters and allowed six fly balls, 10 ground balls and six line drives. He allowed one HR, and struck out three. The BABIP against him last night was .571. That doesn’t absolve him of blame, but if we’re going to take away his credit for suppressing BABIP entering last night then we should at least note it when we’re trying to blame him for last night.

One game doesn’t change the big picture. Burnett hasn’t really pitched well this year, and at this point I don’t think there’s any question that he’s the starter most of us would like to see pulled from the rotation. You can make the case that the Yankees have eight or nine pitchers you’d rather see starting than Burnett depending on what you think of Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, David Phelps, D.J. Mitchell and/or Manny Banuelos.

Unfortunately, the Yankees are still committed to Burnett for the next two years and two months. What I don’t know is if they’d consider pulling Burnett from the rotation the way they did with Mike Mussina in 2007. At least he won’t be asked to pitch against Boston this weekend.

--Posted at 8:09 am by SG / 52 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Hiroki Kuroda, Yay or Nay?

I’ll admit that I don’t know a ton about Hiroki Koruda. What I knew before delving into the numbers was that he was in his mid 30s (actually 36), was from Japan, and had pitched pretty well for the Dodgers over the last 3+ seasons. I also thought he had missed significant time due to injury, but that isn’t really the case. He missed a chunk of 2009 but that’s it.

So not knowing anything about him, I figured he wouldn’t be that big of an upgrade, on the assumption that he was pitching in a weaker league in a pitcher’s park and had marginal stuff.

Kuroda actually has pretty good stuff. He throws his fastball at an average of around 92 mph, and he’s got a good slider as his second pitch. He also throws a splitter as his third pitch and has a curve he doesn’t use all that much.

Coming into 2011, here’s how Kuroda projected.

projecton	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR	BABIP	BB/9	K/9
cairo	28	167	156	76	66	15	38	125	4.10	3.56	3.63	24	2.4	.282	2.05	6.74
marcel	28	169	162	80	69	15	44	130	4.26	3.67	3.67	21	2.1	.290	2.34	6.92
oliver	28	172	169	85	74	16	40	121	4.47	3.85	3.70	18	1.8	.288	2.09	6.33
pecota	29	171	172	72	66	15	43	117	3.77	3.47	3.81	31	3.1	.292	2.26	6.15
zips	28	164	158	70	65	14	38	119	3.83	3.56	3.63	28	2.8	.286	2.08	6.50
average*	28	169	163	77	68	15	41	122	4.09	3.62	3.70	24	2.4	.288	2.17	6.52
2010	31	196	180	87	74	15	48	159	3.99	3.39	3.37	30	3.0	.287	2.20	7.29
2011	18	115	110	45	39	12	30	83	3.53	3.06	3.90	24	2.4	.282	2.35	6.51

He’s exceeded his projections so far in RA and ERA, but his peripherals are actually slightly worse as he’s allowed a few more homers and walks on a rate basis than projected.

He’s been a slightly above average pitcher in terms of getting ground balls in his career at 49.1% although this year he’s actually slightly below league average (42.8%).

If I move him from the Dodgers to the Yankees, here’s what happens to his CAIRO projection.

%	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	K	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	30	30	184	174	15	36	142	4.51	3.90	3.37	30	3.0
65%	29	29	175	172	16	37	130	4.72	4.10	3.62	24	2.4
Baseline	28	27	167	169	17	38	120	4.94	4.30	3.87	19	1.9
35%	25	25	150	157	17	36	104	5.15	4.50	4.12	14	1.4
20%	22	22	134	144	17	34	88	5.37	4.70	4.37	9	0.9

The NL->AL switch is usually about 0.5 runs of ERA which is the bulk of the difference here, with the park change also accounting for about another 0.2. This doesn’t account for the depressed run environment in MLB so far, so that may be a bit higher than expected.

As far as what that means to the Yankees, it depends on how good Bartolo Colon really is. If he’s as good as he’s pitched so far this year, which we really don’t know, Kuroda probably becomes the third best starter on the Yankees. If Colon’s not that good, or if he gets hurt, Kuroda’s probably the #2 starter.

Another thing that may or may not be a concern is his platoon split.

Career vs. LHB: .249/.301/.405 in 1362 PA
Career vs. RHB: .246/.288/.346 in 1266 PA

Those are not really any different than the average RHP’s platoon splits. What worries me is that Kuroda may see more lefties as a Yankee. Taking A.J. Burnett as an example, so far this year he’s faced 309 LHB and 250 RHB. Kuroda’s projection is based on a split of 51.8% RHB and 48.1% LHB. So Kuroda’s projection might be (51.8% times RHB projection + 48.1% times LHB projection now, but should instead be 44.7% RHB projection + 55.2% times LHB projection. Looks like that only adds about .05 in ERA/RA/FIP though, so it’s not a big deal.

Interestingly, despite pitching in a pitcher’s park, Kuroda’s been slightly more effective on the road, allowing a line of .248/.290/.364 compared to .248/.299/.385. It’s not just a BABIP issue, as he’s walked fewer batters and struck out more batters on the road (5.3% BB/BF and 18.3% K/BF vs. 6.1% and 17.1%).

Kuroda’s better than I thought, and would be a fine addition to the staff, although as with any deal it depends on the cost.

In other news, the Yankees will be scouting Erik Bedard, who comes off the DL on Friday.

Also, Chris Jaffe has an interesting bit about CC Sabathia at the Hardball Times today. It’s a list of the pitchers with the most wins by age 31.

--Posted at 10:43 am by SG / 38 Comments | - (0)

Monday, July 18, 2011

Lohud: Laird listed, Pena out

The Yankees just posted their batting practice groups. Brandon Laird is listed. Ramiro Pena is not.

Still no lineup just yet.

UPDATE, 4:05 p.m.: Yankees just announced that Pena had his appendix removed this morning.

Stinks for Pena, and I wish him a speedy and complete recovery.

I don’t know what Laird might do in the majors. Here’s how he projected entering the year.

projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR
cairo	557	515	63	125	24	2	19	77	2	1	34	.243	.294	.408	.305	59	69	-7	13
marcel
oliver	590	547	67	136	26	2	25	84	1	1	36	.249	.298	.441	.318	68	75	-1	19
pecota	539	500	61	125	22	2	20	67	1	0	30	.250	.293	.422	.308	59	71	-5	14
zips	644	599	69	150	29	3	23	93	1	2	37	.250	.297	.424	.312	70	71	-5	17
average*	583	540	65	134	25	2	22	80	1	1	34	.248	.296	.424	.311	64	72	-5	16
2010	581	531	86	149	28	2	25	102	2	2	42	.281	.336	.482	.352	80	89	11	31

wOBA: Weighted on-base average (does not include SB/CS)
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAA: BR above an average player in projected playing time (adjusted for park, but not for position)
BRAR: BR above a replacement level player (adjusted for park and position)
2010: Un-adjusted 2010 performance

Here’s how he’s hit so far in his minor league career and how it translates in terms of his MLEs (major league equivalencies), excluding his 2007 Rookie ball stint.

year	team	league	level	pa	ab	r	h	2b	3b	hr	rbi	bb	k	sb	cs	hbp	avg	obp	slg
2008	Charleston	SAL	A	506	454	71	124	31	1	23	86	40	86	1	0	5	.273	.334	.498
2009	Tampa	FSL	A+	501	451	53	120	20	4	13	75	39	75	1	1	6	.266	.329	.415
2010	Trenton	EL	AA	454	409	73	119	22	2	23	90	38	84	2	2	4	.291	.355	.523
2010	Scranton/WB	IL	AAA	127	122	13	30	6	0	2	12	4	27	0	0	0	.246	.268	.344
2011	Scranton/WB	IL	AAA	362	342	37	91	21	0	10	49	13	55	0	0	3	.266	.296	.415
year	team	league	level	Mpa	Mab	Mr	Mh	M2b	M3b	Mhr	Mrbi	Mbb	Mk	Msb	Mcs	Mhbp	Mavg	Mobp	Mslg
2008	NY Yankees	MLB		432	411	31	81	20	0	13	38	18	130	1	0	3	.196	.235	.339
2009	NY Yankees	MLB		450	422	31	91	16	2	8	44	23	98	1	1	5	.216	.264	.319
2010	NY Yankees	MLB		412	384	47	94	17	1	18	58	24	105	2	3	3	.245	.296	.432
2010	NY Yankees	MLB		120	117	9	25	5	0	2	9	3	32	0	0	0	.214	.234	.297
2011	NY Yankees	MLB		339	327	27	76	18	0	8	36	9	64	0	0	3	.233	.260	.358

He got off to a rough start this year.

Split	pa	ab	r	h	2b	3b	hr	rbi	bb	k	sb	cs	hbp	avg	obp	slg
April	79	76	4	14	5	0	1	5	3	12	0	0	.000	.184	.215	.289
May+	283	266	33	77	16	0	9	44	10	43	0	0	3	.289	.318	.451
Split	Mpa	Mab	Mr	Mh	M2b	M3b	Mhr	Mrbi	Mbb	Mk	Msb	Mcs	Mhbp	Mavg	Mobp	Mslg
April	76	74	3	12	4	0	1	4	2	14	0	0	0	.159	.183	.248
May+	263	253	24	64	14	0	7	32	7	50	0	0	3	.254	.282	.390

He’s been better since May, but still doesn’t look like he’s ready for MLB. The power is intriguing, but the OBP and K rate look like big red flags. He probably won’t be starting regularly, but perhaps Binder™ may throw us a curve. His glove can’t possibly be worse than Eduardo Nunez’s, can it?

--Posted at 3:49 pm by SG / 14 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, July 14, 2011

Where are we at?

I thought it’d be a good time to look at how the Yankees have performed relative to their schedule so far with the second half kicking off tonight.

Date	Game	xW	xL	aW	aL	aW-xW	cxW	cxL	caW	caL	caW-cxW
3/31/2011	vs Tigers	.64	.36	1	0	.36	0.6	0.4	1.0	0.0	0.4
4/2/2011	vs Tigers	.64	.36	1	0	.36	1.3	0.7	2.0	0.0	0.7
4/3/2011	vs Tigers	.64	.36	0	1	-.64	1.9	1.1	2.0	1.0	0.1
4/4/2011	vs Twins	.67	.33	1	0	.33	2.6	1.4	3.0	1.0	0.4
4/5/2011	vs Twins	.67	.33	0	1	-.67	3.3	1.7	3.0	2.0	-0.3
4/6/2011	vs Twins			0	0	.00	3.3	1.7	3.0	2.0	-0.3
4/7/2011	vs Twins	.67	.33	1	0	.33	3.9	2.1	4.0	2.0	0.1
4/8/2011	@ Red Sox	.46	.54	0	1	-.46	4.4	2.6	4.0	3.0	-0.4
4/9/2011	@ Red Sox	.46	.54	1	0	.54	4.8	3.2	5.0	3.0	0.2
4/10/2011	@ Red Sox	.46	.54	0	1	-.46	5.3	3.7	5.0	4.0	-0.3
4/12/2011	vs Orioles			0	0	.00	5.3	3.7	5.0	4.0	-0.3
4/13/2011	vs Orioles	.71	.29	1	0	.29	6.0	4.0	6.0	4.0	0.0
4/14/2011	vs Orioles	.71	.29	1	0	.29	6.7	4.3	7.0	4.0	0.3
4/15/2011	vs Rangers	.59	.41	0	1	-.59	7.3	4.7	7.0	5.0	-0.3
4/16/2011	vs Rangers	.59	.41	1	0	.41	7.9	5.1	8.0	5.0	0.1
4/17/2011	vs Rangers	.59	.41	1	0	.41	8.5	5.5	9.0	5.0	0.5
4/19/2011	@ Blue Jays	.58	.42	0	1	-.58	9.1	5.9	9.0	6.0	-0.1
4/20/2011	@ Blue Jays	.58	.42	1	0	.42	9.7	6.3	10.0	6.0	0.3
4/22/2011	@ Orioles			0	0	.00	9.7	6.3	10.0	6.0	0.3
4/23/2011	@ Orioles	.63	.37	1	0	.37	10.3	6.7	11.0	6.0	0.7
4/24/2011	@ Orioles	.63	.37	1	0	.37	10.9	7.1	12.0	6.0	1.1
4/25/2011	vs White Sox	.65	.35	0	1	-.65	11.6	7.4	12.0	7.0	0.4
4/26/2011	vs White Sox	.65	.35	0	1	-.65	12.2	7.8	12.0	8.0	-0.2
4/27/2011	vs White Sox	.65	.35	1	0	.35	12.9	8.1	13.0	8.0	0.1
4/28/2011	vs White Sox	.65	.35	1	0	.35	13.5	8.5	14.0	8.0	0.5
4/29/2011	vs Blue Jays	.66	.34	0	1	-.66	14.2	8.8	14.0	9.0	-0.2
4/30/2011	vs Blue Jays	.66	.34	1	0	.34	14.8	9.2	15.0	9.0	0.2
5/1/2011	vs Blue Jays	.66	.34	1	0	.34	15.5	9.5	16.0	9.0	0.5
5/2/2011	@ Tigers	.56	.44	1	0	.44	16.1	9.9	17.0	9.0	0.9
5/3/2011	@ Tigers	.56	.44	0	1	-.56	16.6	10.4	17.0	10.0	0.4
5/4/2011	@ Tigers	.56	.44	0	1	-.56	17.2	10.8	17.0	11.0	-0.2
5/5/2011	@ Tigers	.56	.44	0	1	-.56	17.7	11.3	17.0	12.0	-0.7
5/6/2011	@ Rangers	.51	.49	1	0	.49	18.2	11.8	18.0	12.0	-0.2
5/7/2011	@ Rangers	.51	.49	0	1	-.51	18.8	12.2	18.0	13.0	-0.8
5/8/2011	@ Rangers	.51	.49	1	0	.49	19.3	12.7	19.0	13.0	-0.3
5/10/2011	vs Royals	.71	.29	1	0	.29	20.0	13.0	20.0	13.0	0.0
5/11/2011	vs Royals	.71	.29	0	1	-.71	20.7	13.3	20.0	14.0	-0.7
5/12/2011	vs Royals	.71	.29	0	1	-.71	21.4	13.6	20.0	15.0	-1.4
5/13/2011	vs Red Sox	.54	.46	0	1	-.54	21.9	14.1	20.0	16.0	-1.9
5/14/2011	vs Red Sox	.54	.46	0	1	-.54	22.5	14.5	20.0	17.0	-2.5
5/15/2011	vs Red Sox	.54	.46	0	1	-.54	23.0	15.0	20.0	18.0	-3.0
5/16/2011	@ Rays	.52	.48	0	1	-.52	23.5	15.5	20.0	19.0	-3.5
5/17/2011	@ Rays	.52	.48	1	0	.48	24.1	15.9	21.0	19.0	-3.1
5/18/2011	@ Orioles	.63	.37	1	0	.37	24.7	16.3	22.0	19.0	-2.7
5/19/2011	@ Orioles	.63	.37	1	0	.37	25.3	16.7	23.0	19.0	-2.3
5/20/2011	vs Mets	.64	.36	0	1	-.64	26.0	17.0	23.0	20.0	-3.0
5/21/2011	vs Mets	.64	.36	1	0	.36	26.6	17.4	24.0	20.0	-2.6
5/22/2011	vs Mets	.64	.36	1	0	.36	27.2	17.8	25.0	20.0	-2.2
5/23/2011	vs Blue Jays	.66	.34	0	1	-.66	27.9	18.1	25.0	21.0	-2.9
5/24/2011	vs Blue Jays	.66	.34	1	0	.34	28.6	18.4	26.0	21.0	-2.6
5/25/2011	vs Blue Jays	.66	.34	1	0	.34	29.2	18.8	27.0	21.0	-2.2
5/27/2011	@ Mariners	.60	.40	0	1	-.60	29.8	19.2	27.0	22.0	-2.8
5/28/2011	@ Mariners	.60	.40	0	1	-.60	30.4	19.6	27.0	23.0	-3.4
5/29/2011	@ Mariners	.60	.40	1	0	.40	31.0	20.0	28.0	23.0	-3.0
5/30/2011	@ Athletics	.57	.43	1	0	.43	31.6	20.4	29.0	23.0	-2.6
5/31/2011	@ Athletics	.57	.43	1	0	.43	32.2	20.8	30.0	23.0	-2.2

Date	Game	xW	xL	aW	aL	aW-xW	cxW	cxL	caW	caL	caW-cxW
6/1/2011	@ Athletics	.57	.43	1	0	.43	32.7	21.3	31.0	23.0	-1.7
6/3/2011	@ Angels	.56	.44	0	1	-.56	33.3	21.7	31.0	24.0	-2.3
6/4/2011	@ Angels	.56	.44	1	0	.44	33.8	22.2	32.0	24.0	-1.8
6/5/2011	@ Angels	.56	.44	1	0	.44	34.4	22.6	33.0	24.0	-1.4
6/7/2011	vs Red Sox	.54	.46	0	1	-.54	34.9	23.1	33.0	25.0	-1.9
6/8/2011	vs Red Sox	.54	.46	0	1	-.54	35.5	23.5	33.0	26.0	-2.5
6/9/2011	vs Red Sox	.54	.46	0	1	-.54	36.0	24.0	33.0	27.0	-3.0
6/10/2011	vs Indians	.66	.34	1	0	.34	36.7	24.3	34.0	27.0	-2.7
6/11/2011	vs Indians	.66	.34	1	0	.34	37.3	24.7	35.0	27.0	-2.3
6/12/2011	vs Indians	.66	.34	1	0	.34	38.0	25.0	36.0	27.0	-2.0
6/13/2011	vs Indians	.66	.34	0	1	-.66	38.6	25.4	36.0	28.0	-2.6
6/14/2011	vs Rangers	.59	.41	1	0	.41	39.2	25.8	37.0	28.0	-2.2
6/15/2011	vs Rangers	.59	.41	1	0	.41	39.8	26.2	38.0	28.0	-1.8
6/16/2011	vs Rangers	.59	.41	1	0	.41	40.4	26.6	39.0	28.0	-1.4
6/17/2011	@ Cubs	.61	.39	0	1	-.61	41.0	27.0	39.0	29.0	-2.0
6/18/2011	@ Cubs	.61	.39	1	0	.39	41.7	27.3	40.0	29.0	-1.7
6/19/2011	@ Cubs	.61	.39	1	0	.39	42.3	27.7	41.0	29.0	-1.3
6/20/2011	@ Reds	.53	.47	1	0	.47	42.8	28.2	42.0	29.0	-0.8
6/21/2011	@ Reds	.53	.47	1	0	.47	43.3	28.7	43.0	29.0	-0.3
6/22/2011	@ Reds	.53	.47	0	1	-.53	43.9	29.1	43.0	30.0	-0.9
6/24/2011	vs Rockies	.64	.36	0	1	-.64	44.5	29.5	43.0	31.0	-1.5
6/25/2011	vs Rockies	.64	.36	1	0	.36	45.2	29.8	44.0	31.0	-1.2
6/26/2011	vs Rockies	.64	.36	1	0	.36	45.8	30.2	45.0	31.0	-0.8
6/28/2011	vs Brewers	.64	.36	1	0	.36	46.4	30.6	46.0	31.0	-0.4
6/29/2011	vs Brewers	.64	.36	1	0	.36	47.1	30.9	47.0	31.0	-0.1
6/30/2011	vs Brewers	.64	.36	1	0	.36	47.7	31.3	48.0	31.0	0.3
7/1/2011	@ Mets	.56	.44	1	0	.44	48.3	31.7	49.0	31.0	0.7
7/2/2011	@ Mets	.56	.44	1	0	.44	48.8	32.2	50.0	31.0	1.2
7/3/2011	@ Mets	.56	.44	0	1	-.56	49.4	32.6	50.0	32.0	0.6
7/4/2011	@ Indians	.58	.42	0	1	-.58	50.0	33.0	50.0	33.0	0.0
7/5/2011	@ Indians	.58	.42	1	0	.42	50.6	33.4	51.0	33.0	0.4
7/6/2011	@ Indians	.58	.42	0	1	-.58	51.1	33.9	51.0	34.0	-0.1
7/7/2011	vs Rays	.60	.40	0	1	-.60	51.7	34.3	51.0	35.0	-0.7
7/8/2011	vs Rays			0	0	.00	51.7	34.3	51.0	35.0	-0.7
7/9/2011	vs Rays	.60	.40	1	0	.40	52.3	34.7	52.0	35.0	-0.3
7/10/2011	vs Rays	.60	.40	1	0	.40	52.9	35.1	53.0	35.0	0.1

xW: Expected win probability
xL: Expected loss probability
aW: Actual win
aL: Actual loss
aW-xW: Actual win minus expected win. Positive is good, negative is bad
cxW: Cumulative xW
cxL: Cumulative expected losses
caW: Cumulative actual wins
caL: Cumulative actual losses
caW-cxW: Cumulative actual wins minus cumulative expected wins

I’m using Bill James’s log5 method to computed expected wins and losses. Estimated team strengths are based on both pre-season projections and YTD performance.

The Yankees’ lowest point of the first half came on May 16, as a series-opening loss to the Rays after getting swept at home against Boston put them at 3.5 games behind expectations and 20-18. They’ve made up all that ground and bit more, peaking on July 2 with a win against the Mets that put them 1.2 games ahead of pace. Unfortunately, a blown Mariano Rivera save in the series finale against the Mets ended their winning streak at seven, and then Joe Girardi foolishness cost at least one of two games in Cleveland. They were able to recover by taking two of three games against Tampa Bay at home to close out the break, and put them at where they basically ought to be.

There are four first half games that need to be made up in the second half(highlighed in gray), which is going to be a problem. Thankfully, three of the four games are at home and the one road game is against Baltimore.

--Posted at 8:09 am by SG / 27 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, July 10, 2011

MLB.com: Knee surgery to shelve A-Rod at least a month

Dr. Lee Kaplan will perform the surgery at the University of Miami (Fla.), and the Yankees are not sure whether the four-to-six-week timetable is for Rodriguez’s return to the club, or when he could resume baseball activities and possibly begin a rehab stint in the Minors.

Obviously not good news, but it certainly seems that the knee injury has affected Rodriguez’s power, so I’d rather see him back at relatively full strength down the stretch than trying to play through it. If he did try to play, he’d almost certainly need to be rested frequently anyway.

So the question is how much it hurts the Yankees. The current depth chart is A-Rod at 3B, Jeter at SS and Nunez as backup IF. So now you’re looking at Nunez at 3B, Jeter at SS, and Pena as backup IF. The only other player on the active 40 man roster listed as an infielder is Brandon Laird,but he’s more a 3B in theory than in actuality, and it’s tough to see someone who’s OBP’ing .297 in AAA being of much use in the majors.

Four to six weeks is somewhat vague, but figure something like 120 PA of A-Rod, 120 PA of Jeter, and 40 PA of Nunez is now something like 120 PA of Nunez, 120 PA of Jeter, and 40 PA of Pena. Using their projections updated through today looks like this:

	PA	avg/obp/slg	wOBA	br
A-Rod	120	.283/.367/.504	.376	19
Jeter	120	.275/.342/.373	.321	13
Nunez	40	.270/.306/.382	.301	4
Pena	0	.233/.278/.317	.265	0
Total	280		.341	36
	PA	avg/obp/slg	wOBA	br
A-Rod	0	.283/.367/.504	.376	0
Jeter	120	.275/.342/.373	.321	13
Nunez	120	.270/.306/.382	.301	12
Pena	40	.233/.278/.317	.265	3
Total	280		.304	29

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
br: Linear weights batting runs

So the net here is a loss of about seven runs on offense. It’s also worth mentioning that Rodriguez is having a great defensive season, so I’d expect a bit of a fall off there as well. So figure that having Rodriguez out for 120 PA is going to cost the Yankees about a win on paper. We have no idea how it will actually play out of course.

Not great news, but not dire either.

--Posted at 5:14 pm by SG / 23 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, July 2, 2011

TGS NY: Brian Cashman: Robinson Cano is best

Told that Reyes’ presence might represent the first time since interleague play began in 1997 that a Mets star trumped every big name on the New York Yankees roster, Cashman said, “I don’t know if he’s the best player. He’s the most electric and is having the best year, but you’ve got to look at consistency.

“Robinson Cano is the best player on the field.”

As Alex Rodriguez all but tripped over himself in praise of the Mets’ shortstop, whom A-Rod called “the world’s greatest player,” Cashman went with Cano’s recent career over Reyes’.

For the hell of it I ran each guy through CAIRO up through yesterday to see how they’d project going forward:

Player	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	HBP	SO	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR
Cano	613	171	39	3	24	5	3	37	8	72	18	.303	.352	.511	.370	93	98	20	41
Reyes	498	135	25	12	7	32	9	38	1	50	6	.297	.350	.453	.349	71	92	17	35
Rodriguez	535	132	26	1	27	9	2	60	7	97	12	.286	.372	.521	.383	87	105	23	41

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAA: BR above an average hitter (not position or replacement-level adjusted)
BRAR: BR above a replacement level hitter at the same position

Rodriguez still looks like the best pure hitter of the three. Position adjustments change things slighly, and if you were to give each player 650 PA, Rodriguez would have 50 BRAR, Reyes 46, and Cano 43. But I do think the ability to stay on the field is part of a player’s value, and if you do give Cano for credit for that, then he probably is the best position player in this series right now. Defense may change that, but I don’t think we can determine that with any accuracy so I’m just ignoring it.

--Posted at 9:54 am by SG / 6 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, June 30, 2011

Monte Carlo Postseason Odds Through June 30, 2011

It’s been a while since I ran these, so here’s how my Monte Carlo simulator sees the rest of the season playing out. Team projections are revised using pre-season projections adjusted for roster changes combined with YTD performance. I add some uncertainty to account for the fact that we really can’t quantify everything about the teams right now and then run the rest of the season is then played out 10,000 times. Those results are added to what’s happened so far to give estimated final win totals and likelihoods of winning the division or wild card.

Date	6/30/2011
Iterations	10000
American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Yankees	96.4	65.6	827	683	53.3%	32.5%	85.8%
Red Sox	94.5	67.5	824	684	38.1%	41.4%	79.5%
Rays	86.9	75.1	738	680	8.2%	18.8%	27.0%
Blue Jays	77.0	85.0	700	742	0.3%	1.3%	1.6%
Orioles	72.1	89.9	723	777	0.1%	0.5%	0.6%
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Tigers	86.4	75.6	730	704	54.0%	1.2%	55.2%
Indians	82.0	80.0	713	748	23.4%	1.2%	24.6%
White Sox	80.8	81.2	704	706	18.4%	0.6%	18.9%
Twins	74.5	87.5	713	740	4.0%	0.1%	4.1%
Royals	66.2	95.8	685	802	0.3%	0.0%	0.3%
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Rangers	87.0	75.0	750	689	62.9%	0.9%	63.7%
Angels	81.6	80.4	651	664	23.3%	1.1%	24.3%
Athletics	77.4	84.6	645	629	8.8%	0.4%	9.2%
Mariners	75.0	87.0	614	672	5.1%	0.2%	5.3%
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Phillies	96.5	65.5	709	608	69.9%	20.8%	90.7%
Braves	91.3	70.7	703	632	27.5%	39.6%	67.1%
Mets	80.5	81.5	718	721	1.7%	5.6%	7.3%
Nationals	77.9	84.1	658	710	0.6%	3.2%	3.8%
Marlins	74.3	87.7	668	685	0.3%	1.0%	1.3%
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Brewers	86.2	75.8	718	699	33.7%	6.2%	39.8%
Cardinals	86.0	76.0	751	722	32.4%	5.6%	38.0%
Reds	85.6	76.4	748	696	28.4%	5.8%	34.2%
Pirates	78.0	84.0	661	738	5.2%	1.3%	6.5%
Cubs	71.9	90.1	700	749	0.4%	0.1%	0.5%
Astros	60.4	101.6	604	754	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Giants	89.4	72.6	654	612	65.4%	3.6%	69.0%
Diamondbacks	81.9	80.1	687	730	15.4%	3.2%	18.6%
Rockies	81.3	80.7	748	732	12.6%	3.3%	15.9%
Dodgers	76.3	85.7	658	662	3.7%	0.6%	4.3%
Padres	74.7	87.3	629	660	2.9%	0.2%	3.1%

I usually like to look at which teams the projections missed by the most, so here’s the list of all teams sorted by the gap between their revised win projections and their pre-season projections here.

Team	pW	opW	pW+/-
Diamondbacks	82	73.0	8.9
Pirates	78	70.2	7.8
Indians	82	74.3	7.7
Phillies	96	90.6	5.9
Nationals	78	72.3	5.6
Yankees	96	92.4	4.0
Braves	91	87.3	4.0
Angels	82	77.9	3.7
Brewers	86	83.1	3.2
Blue Jays	77	73.9	3.1
Cardinals	86	83.3	2.7
Tigers	86	84.6	1.8
Mariners	75	73.6	1.4
Giants	89	88.0	1.4
Mets	80	79.5	1.0
Rays	87	86.1	0.9
Red Sox	95	94.4	0.1
Reds	86	85.5	0.1
Rangers	87	88.0	-1.0
Rockies	81	83.1	-1.8
White Sox	81	82.8	-2.0
Royals	66	68.4	-2.2
Padres	75	79.0	-4.3
Astros	60	65.9	-5.5
Orioles	72	78.6	-6.5
Athletics	77	84.6	-7.2
Dodgers	76	83.6	-7.3
Marlins	74	81.9	-7.6
Cubs	72	79.8	-7.9
Twins	74	84.4	-9.9

The Yankees have picked up a few games on their pre-season projections, although there are a few teams ahead of them in that regard.

If you’re a Diamondbacks fan, you can be happy that your team now looks like they’re on target to get to 82 wins. If you’re a Twins fan, you can be glad that you got a bunch of crap for Johan Santana I guess.

--Posted at 8:11 pm by SG / 11 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, June 23, 2011

NY Post: Swisher & Gardner fine, but Yankees’ leadoff job still Jeter’s

CINCINNATI—Ask him tomorrow and Joe Girardi’s answer will be the same as it was Tuesday and yesterday: When Derek Jeter returns to the Yankees, he is going to bat first.

“These guys have done a great job,” Girardi said of Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner, who after yesterday’s doubleheader split with the Reds are batting a combined .316 (12-for-38) in the leadoff spot since Jeter went on the disabled list. “I will put him in the leadoff spot. He has been our leadoff hitter all year.”

I re-ran CAIRO for the Yankees’ 2011 starters through yesterday to see how they project now. First, here are the team’s overall projections. I haven’t messed with run environment, but since this is a comparison in a vacuum it doesn’t matter.

Team	Yankees		Overall Projected
Player	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	wOBA	Outs	BR
Derek Jeter	SS	5.0	.283/.353/.388	.332	3.2	0.58
Curtis Granderson	CF	5.0	.259/.340/.494	.358	3.3	0.72
Mark Teixeira	1B	5.0	.270/.372/.517	.383	3.1	0.80
Alex Rodriguez	3B	5.0	.283/.371/.521	.383	3.1	0.80
Robinson Cano	2B	5.0	.304/.352/.514	.371	3.2	0.76
Nick Swisher	RF	5.0	.254/.356/.453	.354	3.2	0.69
Jorge Posada	DH	4.0	.257/.346/.440	.344	2.6	0.52
Russell Martin	C	4.0	.258/.359/.391	.338	2.6	0.48
Brett Gardner	LF	4.0	.275/.359/.389	.334	2.6	0.48
Total		42.0	.272/.357/.460	.356	27.0	5.83

Derek Jeter projects as the worst hitter on the team at this point, albeit only slightly worse than Brett Gardner and Russell Martin. I probably shouldn’t have to tell readers of this blog that using a lineup that ensures your worst hitter bats more than anyone else is not optimal.

That doesn’t mean Jeter shouldn’t leadoff some times. Here are the team’s projections vs. LHP.

Team	Yankees		Vs. LHP Projected
Player	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	wOBA	Outs	BR
Derek Jeter	SS	5.0	.302/.376/.413	.354	3.1	0.64
Curtis Granderson	CF	5.0	.224/.294/.428	.310	3.5	0.52
Mark Teixeira	1B	5.0	.275/.380/.527	.390	3.1	0.76
Alex Rodriguez	3B	5.0	.288/.378/.530	.389	3.1	0.78
Robinson Cano	2B	5.0	.291/.337/.492	.356	3.3	0.68
Nick Swisher	RF	4.9	.264/.370/.470	.367	3.1	0.71
Jorge Posada	DH	4.0	.259/.348/.443	.346	2.6	0.48
Russell Martin	C	4.0	.274/.381/.415	.359	2.5	0.54
Brett Gardner	LF	4.0	.258/.336/.364	.313	2.7	0.45
Total		41.9	.271/.356/.457	.355	27.0	5.55

I’d forgotten how abysmal PREKL Granderson had been against lefties, although he’s bumped his projection up by about .020 wOBA against lefties this year. Jeter’s projection is very good for a leadoff hitter against LHP, and he’s actually hit slightly better than that vs. LHP so far this year (.299/.405/.403). A combination of high OBP and middling slugging is a good fit for leadoff.

The problem is that the Yankees only play about 1/3 to 1/4 of their games against lefties.

Team	Yankees		Vs. RHP Projected
Player	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	wOBA	Outs	BR
Derek Jeter	SS	5.0	.277/.345/.379	.325	3.3	0.56
Curtis Granderson	CF	5.0	.271/.355/.516	.374	3.2	0.79
Mark Teixeira	1B	5.0	.268/.369/.512	.379	3.2	0.81
Alex Rodriguez	3B	5.0	.282/.369/.518	.381	3.2	0.80
Robinson Cano	2B	5.0	.309/.359/.524	.378	3.2	0.80
Nick Swisher	RF	5.0	.250/.351/.446	.348	3.2	0.68
Jorge Posada	DH	4.0	.256/.345/.439	.344	2.6	0.54
Russell Martin	C	4.0	.253/.352/.383	.332	2.6	0.47
Brett Gardner	LF	4.0	.280/.366/.397	.341	2.5	0.49
Total		42.0	.273/.357/.461	.357	27.0	5.94

This is the biggest problem. Jeter’s by far the worst hitter on the team vs. RHP. In general, each lineup slot gets about 0.1 PA more per game than the next one. So far this year the Yankees’ leadoff hitters have 349 PA and their #9 hitters have 279, which is effectively the same thing. So If Jeter’s getting 4.8 PA a game, the #9 hitter is getting 3.8. The Yankees have played 73 games this season, and have faced RHP in 1991 PA and LHP in 848 PA. If they face the same ratio over the rest of the year they’re looking at another 2427 PA vs. RHP and 1034 vs. LHP. I’ll use that as a proxy and say we should probably expect them to faced RHP in about 70% of their remaining 89 games. If Jeter hits leadoff and Gardner hits ninth in those games, then Jeter will come to the plate about 58 more times than Gardner. Since we have injuries/rest days etc., knock that down to about 50 PA.

The difference in run value of those 50 PA vs. RHP using Jeter and Gardner’s revised CAIRO projections vs. RHP which is calculated as Gardner wOBA vs RHP minus Jeter wOBA vs. RHP divided by 1.15 times 50 PA is 0.7 runs,

So yeah, as annoying as it is to see Jeter leading off, if he’s going to play anyway it doesn’t really matter all that much. Of course, you may think the projections overrate Jeter and/or underrate Gardner which widens the gap.

So no, batting Jeter leadoff against all pitching is not optimal, but it’s probably not going to be the reason if the Yankees fail to reach their goals this year.

--Posted at 10:42 am by SG / 33 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, June 2, 2011

What A Difference Five Days Can Make

On May 28 in this post I referenced some standings projections I’d done at that point, which had the Red Sox projected to end the year around 93-69, with the Yankees at 91-71 and the Rays at 88-74. Here’s how that compares to a re-run as of last night’s games.

Team	5/28 xW	6/1 xW	D xW
Yankees	91.2	93.2	2.0
Blue Jays	76.6	78.5	1.9
Rays	87.5	86.6	-0.9
Orioles	74.2	72.9	-1.3
Red Sox	93.1	90.1	-3.0

xW: Expected wins

Thank you White Sox.

Enjoy it while you can, since the Angels are going to sweep the Yankees this weekend and effectively return things to how they were on 5/28.

--Posted at 7:19 am by SG / 50 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, May 28, 2011

TGS NY: Joe’s handling of ‘pen not so mighty

David Robertson got out of a bed in Tuscaloosa, Alabama at 4:30 a.m. Eastern time Friday morning. Nearly 20 hours later, he was on the mound at Safeco Field, doing his job to perfection, pitching an overpowering eighth inning against the Mariners.

Trouble was, the game had already been lost two innings earlier.

But that’s what happens when a manager sticks to a game plan even if the game no longer fits his plan.

Robertson, back from a mission of mercy to his tornado-ravaged hometown, was no doubt the most tired man in the Yankee bullpen. He was also the only one able to do his job. Unfortunately, by the time he was asked to do it, it was too late. At the time, the Yankees trailed 4-3, and that’s the way it would stay.

I didn’t get to watch the game, so I’d be interested in everyone else’s take, but here’s how I see the situation. With Burnett at 97 pitches with five walks through five innings, I don’t think anyone would quibble with the fact that he was pulled prior to the sixth inning. So the question then is who should have started the bottom of the sixth. With Adam Kennedy (LHB), Miguel Olivo (RHB) and Carlos Peguero (LHB) due up, I can understand the thought process behind starting the sixth inning with Boone Logan. You need to get four innings out of your bullpen, so unless you want one of Robertson, Joba Chamberlain or Mariano Rivera to pitch two innings you needed to get some outs from someone other than those three.

Logan allowed a leadoff single to Kennedy. So now with a RHB up and with the likelihood of a pinch-hitter for Peguero to re-gain the platoon advantage, going to the bullpen for a RHP made sense as well. Unfortunately, Girardi opted for Luis Ayala instead of Robertson and that’s when the game was lost.

Ayala probably would have pitched an inning at some point in the game, so the real problem is that he and Logan didn’t do their jobs. However, once Kennedy reached Girardi should have used a better pitcher due to the leverage of the situation, and not the pitcher who’s ordinal spot in the bullpen hierarchy was now due. If you intended to pitch Robertson or Chamberlain if necessary anyway, they’d have been the better choices in that spot. If they extended themselves to get out of the inning, you could then go to Ayala to begin the seventh with whichever of Robertson or Chamberlain wasn’t used as a safety net to get the game to Rivera.

Again, the real issue is that Logan and Ayala didn’t execute. But it’s fair to say that Girardi’s deployment of the bullpen after Logan is also culpable.

The Yankees really don’t have much margin for error on this road trip if you look at the schedule for the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays over the rest of this West Coast swing.

Date	Yankee	xW	xL	Red Sox	xW	xL	Rays	xW	xL
5/28/2011	@ Mariners	.58	.42	@ Tigers	.53	.47	vs Indians	.58	.42
5/29/2011	@ Mariners	.58	.42	@ Tigers	.53	.47	vs Indians	.58	.42
5/30/2011	@ Athletics	.51	.49	vs White Sox	.62	.38	vs Rangers	.54	.46
5/31/2011	@ Athletics	.51	.49	vs White Sox	.62	.38	vs Rangers	.54	.46
6/1/2011	@ Athletics	.51	.49	vs White Sox	.62	.38	vs Rangers	.54	.46
6/2/2011							@Mariners	.54	.46
6/3/2011	@ Angels	.54	.46	vs Athletics	.59	.41	@Mariners	.54	.46
6/4/2011	@ Angels	.54	.46	vs Athletics	.59	.41	@Mariners	.54	.46
6/5/2011	@ Angels	.54	.46	vs Athletics	.59	.41	@Mariners	.54	.46
		4.32	3.68		4.72	3.28		4.95	4.05

At this point Boston and the Rays have around a one game advantage over the Yankees over the next nine days, at which point the Yankees will return home to face Boston, Cleveland and Texas on a nine game home stand. It’s not inconceivable that the Yankees could be trailing Boston and/or Tampa Bay by three or four games by then. And that’s not exactly the kind of home stand that would allow the Yankees to catch up if they falter on the rest of this trip.

Right now I’ve got Boston projected to finish around 93-69, the Yankees around 91-71 and Tampa Bay around 88-74. If that’s how things still look by the end of this road trip I’d happily take it.

--Posted at 8:34 am by SG / 21 Comments | - (0)

Monday, May 23, 2011

Where Are The Yankees’ Missing Hits?

It’s not very likely that scoring eight runs without the benefit of a home run in last night’s seventh inning is going to quell the clowns who think the Yankees are eschewing hits for home runs and that they need to stop hitting the ball over the fence and instead hit more bleeders and bloops. They’ll cite a team batting average that ranks 11th in MLB while ignoring the fact that the Yankees have the second highest team wOBA in baseball(behind St. Louis) and the second-highest BB rate in MLB (tied with the Mets) despite only ranking 15th in strikeout rate. If they were really swinging for the fences on every pitch in a concerted effort to hit more HRs shouldn’t they be striking out more than that? Aren’t HRs a function of hitting the ball hard, and isn’t that what hitters should be doing?

Anyway, the primary culprit in the Yankees’ seeming inability to only score via the home run is their team’s batting average. Their team batting average on balls in play(BABIP) is at .274, which ranks among the worst in MLB (tied for third-worst with the Washington Nationals and worse than the Mariners). BABIP ignores home runs, so if you instead look at on-contact average they move up to 10th in MLB.

If you compare the team’s current cumulative batting line to their projections using the actual distribution of playing time so far, you can see what’s different from expectations.

Type	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR
YTD	1727	1518	235	385	62	10	71	229	26	13	173	317	21	48	.254	.335	.448	.341	223
Proj	1727	1511	225	404	77	8	58	216	32	10	182	303	17	35	.267	.349	.444	.347	232
Diff	0	7	10	-19	-15	2	13	13	-6	3	-9	14	4	13					-9

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: linear weights batting runs

As a team, the Yankees have 19 fewer hits than projected, mostly doubles. They’ve hit 13 more home runs than expected, and overall they’re actually about nine runs below their projections. The killer number here that has been driving me nuts this year are the double plays. The Yankees are tied for second in MLB at 48, with the Cardinals the runaway leader with 58. That’s partially a function of getting people on base. If you look at it in terms of percentage of times they’ve hit into a double play in double play situations they’re at 14.4% which only ranks 7th in MLB. That still doesn’t make it any less annoying.

So who are the culprits in the Yankees’ lower than expected batting average. You probably already have a good idea, but here you go.

Player	Team	Lg	Pos	Type	H	1B	2B	3B	HR
Jorge Posada	Yankees	AL	DH	Diff	-9	-7	-3	0	1
Nick Swisher	Yankees	AL	RF	Diff	-8	0	-1	-1	-6
Mark Teixeira	Yankees	AL	1B	Diff	-6	-5	-3	0	2
Robinson Cano	Yankees	AL	2B	Diff	-5	-4	-3	0	2
Derek Jeter	Yankees	AL	SS	Diff	-2	3	-4	0	-2
Francisco Cervelli	Yankees	AL	C	Diff	-2	-3	0	0	1
Andruw Jones	Yankees	AL	LF	Diff	-1	0.8	-1	0	0
Gustavo Molina	Yankees	AL	C	Diff	0	-1	1	0	0
Eduardo Nunez	Yankees	AL	SS	Diff	0	-1	1	0	0
Russell Martin	Yankees	AL	C	Diff	2	-4	0	0	5
Chris Dickerson	Yankees	AL	DH	Diff	2	1.5	1	0	0
Eric Chavez	Yankees	AL	3B	Diff	2	1.7	0	1	-1
Brett Gardner	Yankees	AL	LF	Diff	2	0.3	-1	1	1
Curtis Granderson	Yankees	AL	CF	Diff	2	-4	-3	1	8
Alex Rodriguez	Yankees	AL	3B	Diff	2	1.5	1	0	0

Although readers of this blog for the most part understand that batting average isn’t very informative, when five of the nine regulars are lower than expected in hits per AB it contributes to our perception that the team is underperforming.

For all the stories regarding Jorge Posada, Nick Swisher is the Yankee who so far has been the worst performer relative to his projection once you account for playing time.

Player	BR
Curtis Granderson	6.7
Russell Martin	6.2
Eric Chavez	1.9
Eduardo Nunez	1.4
Chris Dickerson	1.4
Gustavo Molina	-0.2
Francisco Cervelli	-0.4
Alex Rodriguez	-0.8
Mark Teixeira	-0.8
Robinson Cano	-1.2
Brett Gardner	-1.6
Andruw Jones	-2.5
Jorge Posada	-5.0
Derek Jeter	-6.0
Nick Swisher	-8.7

Even Jeter’s been worse than Posada by this measure, primarily since he’s getting the most PAs on the team. I think it’s time to put Gardner at the top against righties, although if all that does is move Jeter to second it’s pointless.

I think Swisher is the biggest issue the Yankees have right now. If Posada doesn’t start showing signs of life, they have internal options for DH. As disappointing as Jeter’s been this year, he’s the Yankees’ best option at shortstop right now. With Swisher, we know he’s got the ability to be a key contributor to the team, but we also have data in the not so distant past that he may just have a horrible season. I like Chris Dickerson as a fourth OF, but I don’t think I’d want to see him out there every day. If Andruw Jones was playing a bit better a Jones/Dickerson platoon might work, but I doubt they sit Swisher long-term. So let’s hope he gets better.

--Posted at 9:47 am by SG / 20 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Five Singles and Three Doubles

Five singles and three doubles are the difference between Jorge Posada’s current year-to-date performance and his average projection heading into the season.

Player	Team	Lg	Pos	Type	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR
Jorge Posada	Yankees	AL	DH	YTD	129	20	3	0	6	16	30	1	4	.179	.287	.366	11.8
Jorge Posada	Yankees	AL	DH	Proj	129	28	6	0	5	15	29	1	3	.254	.344	.443	17.0
Jorge Posada	Yankees	AL	DH	Diff	0	-8	-3	0	1	1	1	0	1	-.075	-.057	-.077	-5.2

That’s not insignificant, but I think it’s small enough to think that he can still hit enough to be useful if he’s given enough time. He’s actually one HR ahead of his projection which means five singles and one double would have him right at his projection.

--Posted at 8:44 am by SG / 32 Comments | - (0)

Friday, May 13, 2011

The Implications of this Weekend’s Series with Boston

The Red Sox have been playing better since their rough start but are still trying to fight their way to .500. The Yankees have stumbled a bit over their last ten games, losing 6 and are now in second place in the AL East behind the Tampa Bay Rays, although even in the loss column.

So with a three game set beginning tonight in the Bronx between the Yankees and Boston, here’s a look at how the different ways this series may affect the AL East going forward.

First of all, here’s how my Monte Carlo simulator says the AL East would play out as of today.

Team	W	L	Div	WC	PL
Red Sox	85.8	76.2	14.6%	17.6%	32.1%
Yankees	92.1	69.9	50.8%	23.7%	74.5%
Rays	89.8	72.2	34.3%	27.6%	61.9%
Blue Jays	74.1	87.9	0.2%	0.4%	0.6%
Orioles	74.5	87.5	0.2%	1.2%	1.4%

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

When Boston sweeps this series, here’s how things will look.

Team	W	L	Div	WC	PL
Red Sox	87.5	74.5	23.2%	22.1%	45.3%
Yankees	90.3	71.7	38.2%	25.3%	63.4%
Rays	90.0	72.0	38.0%	23.5%	61.5%
Blue Jays	73.6	88.4	0.0%	0.7%	0.8%
Orioles	74.5	87.5	0.5%	1.4%	1.9%

There’s a miniscule chance the Yankees take one of the three games, and if that were to happen here’s how things would shake out.

Team	W	L	Div	WC	PL
Red Sox	86.4	75.6	15.8%	20.9%	36.6%
Yankees	91.5	70.5	46.9%	24.5%	71.5%
Rays	90.0	72.0	37.1%	23.8%	60.9%
Blue Jays	73.8	88.2	0.1%	0.9%	1.0%
Orioles	74.1	87.9	0.1%	0.9%	0.9%

I suppose there’s an infinitesimal chance the Yankees take two of three games in which case here’s how things would project going forward.

Team	W	L	Div	WC	PL
Red Sox	85.7	76.3	13.8%	18.6%	32.4%
Yankees	91.9	70.1	50.4%	23.6%	73.9%
Rays	90.2	71.8	35.4%	27.5%	62.9%
Blue Jays	74.3	87.7	0.3%	0.7%	1.0%
Orioles	74.0	88.0	0.2%	0.6%	0.7%

In the completely theoretical and impossible scenario where the Yankees sweep, this would be the net result.

Team	W	L	Div	WC	PL
Red Sox	84.6	77.4	10.6%	15.6%	26.1%
Yankees	93.5	68.5	58.3%	24.5%	82.8%
Rays	89.9	72.1	30.5%	28.8%	59.3%
Blue Jays	73.6	88.4	0.2%	1.1%	1.2%
Orioles	74.3	87.7	0.5%	1.3%	1.8%

One of my foibles is superstition. Because of that, I see no way a series against Boston that kicks off on a Friday the 13th is going to go well. Hopefully I’m wrong.

--Posted at 11:16 am by SG / 29 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

NY Post: Sherman: Would the Yankees be interested in Reyes come July?

I doubt it. They re-signed Derek Jeter to a three-year contract last offseason and I cannot imagine – after giving him that contract essentially out of a sign of respect – that they are going to move him aside come July, even if he is still struggling as badly as he is now. Heck, the Yankees have not even shown the fortitude yet to move Jeter down in the lineup, so can you imagine them moving him onto the bench?

But the more interesting question becomes if the Yankees would be interested in Reyes as a free agent?

That would mean that Jeter had to stay a poor player all year to even put the Yankees in position to consider such a signing. But it does add some intrigue to the rest of this season as the Yankees wait and wonder if the current Jeter is now Jeter.

If the Yankees were to trade for Reyes today, he would project to be worth about one win more than Jeter would be over the remainder of the season at the plate(using rest of season ZiPS from Fangraphs).

Jeter: .276/.344/.378
Reyes: .290/.344/.443

Those don’t account for park, so in theory Reyes would hit a bit better than that. If they wait until July, then the difference shrinks.

Of course, the question is whether or not Jeter’s revised projections are too optimistic and what the defensive difference would be. The other more important question would be the cost in terms of talent for what is more likely than not a modest upgrade for 2011.

I don’t see it happening, and I don’t think I want to see it happening. But I would be on board with him as a possible free agent signing in 2012 if Jeter shows no signs of recovering from his lackluster start.

--Posted at 9:02 am by SG / 41 Comments | - (0)

Monday, April 18, 2011

April 2011 Log5 Update

Since Andrew asked about the Yankees’ schedule through the end of March in the previous entry, I figured I’d do a post about it.

When I last looked at the Yankees’ schedule for April using Bill James’s log5 methodology, the Yankees were 2-1 and on target to meet an expected record of something in the neighborhood of 16-11. Here’s an updated look at their log5 vs. actuals through yesterday.

Date	Game	xW	xL	aW	aL	aW-xW	cxW	cxL	caW	caL	caW-cxW
3/31/2011	vs Tigers	.59	.41	1	0	.41	0.6	0.4	1.0	0.0	0.4
4/2/2011	vs Tigers	.59	.41	1	0	.41	1.2	0.8	2.0	0.0	0.8
4/3/2011	vs Tigers	.59	.41	0	1	-.59	1.8	1.2	2.0	1.0	0.2
4/4/2011	vs Twins	.60	.40	1	0	.40	2.4	1.6	3.0	1.0	0.6
4/5/2011	vs Twins	.60	.40	0	1	-.60	3.0	2.0	3.0	2.0	0.0
4/6/2011	vs Twins	.00	.00	0	0	.00	3.0	2.0	3.0	2.0	0.0
4/7/2011	vs Twins	.60	.40	1	1	.40	3.6	2.4	4.0	3.0	0.4
4/8/2011	@ Red Sox	.46	.54	0	1	-.46	4.0	3.0	4.0	4.0	0.0
4/9/2011	@ Red Sox	.46	.54	1	0	.54	4.5	3.5	5.0	4.0	0.5
4/10/2011	@ Red Sox	.46	.54	0	0	-.46	4.9	4.1	5.0	4.0	0.1
4/12/2011	vs Orioles	.00	.00	0	0	.00	4.9	4.1	5.0	4.0	0.1
4/13/2011	vs Orioles	.63	.37	1	0	.37	5.6	4.4	6.0	4.0	0.4
4/14/2011	vs Orioles	.63	.37	1	0	.37	6.2	4.8	7.0	4.0	0.8
4/15/2011	vs Rangers	.55	.45	0	1	-.55	6.7	5.3	7.0	5.0	0.3
4/16/2011	vs Rangers	.55	.45	1	0	.45	7.3	5.7	8.0	5.0	0.7
4/17/2011	vs Rangers	.55	.45	1	0	.45	7.8	6.2	9.0	5.0	1.2
4/19/2011	@ Blue Jays	.56	.44				8.4	6.6	9.0	5.0
4/20/2011	@ Blue Jays	.56	.44				9.0	7.0	9.0	5.0
4/22/2011	@ Orioles	.55	.45				9.5	7.5	9.0	5.0
4/23/2011	@ Orioles	.55	.45				10.1	7.9	9.0	5.0
4/24/2011	@ Orioles	.55	.45				10.6	8.4	9.0	5.0
4/25/2011	vs White Sox	.60	.40				11.2	8.8	9.0	5.0
4/26/2011	vs White Sox	.60	.40				11.8	9.2	9.0	5.0
4/27/2011	vs White Sox	.60	.40				12.4	9.6	9.0	5.0
4/28/2011	vs White Sox	.60	.40				13.0	10.0	9.0	5.0
4/29/2011	vs Blue Jays	.64	.36				13.7	10.3	9.0	5.0
4/30/2011	vs Blue Jays	.64	.36				14.3	10.7	9.0	5.0

They’ve lost two games to rainouts (4/6 vs. the Twins and 4/12 vs. the Orioles). Accounting for that, they should be about 8-6 right now. At 9-5 they’re a win ahead of expectations. Log5 says they probably should go something like 6.5 - 4.5 over the rest of the month. That’d have them at around 16-9 or 15-10 heading into May, and would have them on about a 93 win pace.

--Posted at 1:26 pm by SG / 43 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

How Have Teams’ Projections Changed Since Opening Day?

Even though it’s still early, there have been enough games played that some teams’ fortunes have changed by a non-negligible amount. Here’s a quick comparison of all the teams in MLB and their revised projected win total compared to their average projected win total before the season started.

Team	preW	proW	diffW
Rangers	88.0	94.0	6.0
Indians	74.3	79.3	5.0
Rockies	83.1	86.6	3.5
Pirates	70.2	73.4	3.2
Phillies	90.6	93.6	3.0
Reds	85.5	88.5	3.0
Orioles	78.6	81.0	2.4
Royals	68.4	70.1	1.7
White Sox	82.8	84.1	1.2
Diamondbacks	73.0	74.0	1.0
Marlins	81.9	82.5	0.6
Cubs	79.8	80.3	0.5
Cardinals	83.1	83.5	0.4
Dodgers	83.6	84.0	0.4
Nationals	72.3	72.0	-0.3
Angels	77.9	77.5	-0.4
Braves	87.3	86.8	-0.5
Blue Jays	73.9	73.4	-0.5
Brewers	83.3	82.7	-0.6
Yankees	92.4	91.6	-0.8
Giants	88.0	87.0	-1.0
Padres	79.0	78.0	-1.0
Athletics	84.6	83.6	-1.0
Twins	84.4	82.4	-2.0
Mets	79.5	76.6	-2.9
Tigers	84.6	81.5	-3.1
Astros	65.9	62.7	-3.2
Rays	86.1	82.0	-4.1
Mariners	73.6	69.3	-4.3
Red Sox	94.4	88.1	-6.3

preW: Pre-season projected win total
proW: Revised projected win total (Actual YTD record plus going forward projected wins)
diffW: Difference between proW and preW (proW - preW). A positive value means a team now projects better, a negative value means they project worse.

I’m just amazed that the Astros may be worse than projected, and would love to hear from the ESPN guy who picked them to win their division.

--Posted at 10:36 am by SG / 23 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, April 7, 2011

The Implications of This Weekend’s Series with Boston

You may or may not have heard, but the best team in baseball history has gotten off to a rough start at 0-6. It’s important to understand what that means in the big picture. It’s too small of a sample size to meaningfully change our estimate of how good they are. However, those games do count, and they do need to be factored into whatever we forecast Boston to do going forward.

If Boston was a 94-95 win team over 162 games at the start of the year, they’re probably still a 94-95 win team. However, they only have 156 games left to play. At the same winning percentage, they’re more like a 91 win team now. Here’s a quick look at the average projections for the AL East at the start of the season according to the aggregate from the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout.

TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Red Sox	94.4	67.6	817	687	42.1%	17.8%	59.8%
Yankees	92.4	69.6	812	707	32.8%	18.2%	51.0%
Rays	86.1	75.9	762	704	16.0%	13.4%	29.4%
Orioles	78.6	83.4	748	777	6.0%	6.5%	12.5%
Blue Jays	73.9	88.1	686	751	3.1%	3.2%	6.3%

It’s certainly possible that some of these projections were wrong from the start, but we don’t have enough information to know that yet.

Re-running that exercise taking into account what’s actually happened to this point gives us these revised results.

TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Yankees	92.1	69.9	812	707	40.2%	16.4%	56.6%
Red Sox	91.1	70.9	817	687	36.5%	19.3%	55.8%
Rays	81.8	80.2	762	704	12.9%	9.5%	22.4%
Orioles	77.8	84.2	748	777	6.3%	6.9%	13.2%
Blue Jays	73.5	88.5	686	751	4.2%	3.5%	7.6%

So if everything played out as projected going forward (it won’t), the Yankees are now slight favorites in the AL East. That was easy enough.

Using that as our new baseline, here are how those would look depending on the various potential results of the Yankees’ three game series in Fenway this weekend.

Boston Sweeps

TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Red Sox	92.4	69.6	817	687	41.3%	18.2%	59.5%
Yankees	90.1	71.9	812	707	34.1%	16.9%	51.1%
Rays	83.0	79.0	762	704	14.0%	10.8%	24.8%
Orioles	78.3	83.7	748	777	7.8%	6.9%	14.7%
Blue Jays	73.0	89.1	686	751	2.8%	3.5%	6.3%

This is basically how things looked in the preseason, with Boston about two games better than the Yankees.

Boston wins 2 of 3

TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Red Sox	91.4	70.6	817	687	37.3%	17.3%	54.6%
Yankees	91.3	70.7	812	707	35.9%	18.0%	53.9%
Rays	82.4	79.6	762	704	15.7%	11.5%	27.1%
Orioles	78.3	83.7	748	777	7.8%	7.8%	15.6%
Blue Jays	73.4	88.6	686	751	3.4%	3.3%	6.7%

For all intents and purposes that makes things a dead heat.

Yankees win 2 of 3

TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Yankees	92.0	70.0	812	707	40.6%	18.6%	59.1%
Red Sox	90.6	71.4	817	687	35.9%	18.1%	53.9%
Rays	81.9	80.1	762	704	13.0%	9.4%	22.4%
Orioles	78.6	83.4	748	777	8.0%	7.7%	15.7%
Blue Jays	72.8	89.2	686	751	2.6%	3.7%	6.3%

While not my ideal scenario, I would approve of this outcome.

Yankees Sweep

TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Yankees	93.9	68.1	812	707	47.2%	17.0%	64.2%
Red Sox	89.3	72.7	817	687	29.6%	16.8%	46.4%
Rays	82.3	79.7	762	704	13.4%	10.7%	24.1%
Orioles	77.7	84.3	748	777	6.5%	6.5%	13.0%
Blue Jays	73.1	88.9	686	751	3.3%	3.6%	6.9%

This is my preferred result.

These odds can swing pretty wildly after just a few games, so don’t take them too seriously. This is particularly true in baseball where divisional rivals play each other so frequently.

Now obviously it’s really early in the season and we have no idea what will actually happen, but can you imagine the hysteria if the Yankees take all three games?

Looking at the pitching matchups, the Yankees are probably underdogs in the first two games.

Friday, April 8
Phil “88 mph” Hughes vs. John “World Series Hero” Lackey

Saturday, April 9
Ivan Nova vs. Clay Buchholz

The good news is they should probably be slight favorites in the finale

Sunday, April 10
CC “Future Red Sock” Sabathia vs. Josh “Guardian of playing the game right” Beckett

So the most likely scenario is that the Red Sox take two of three, and really that’s fine with me. I just don’t want to see the Yankees get swept.

--Posted at 6:00 pm by SG / 74 Comments | - (0)

Monday, April 4, 2011

2011 March/April Expectations

I was looking at the Yankees’ early season schedule and wanted to see what a reasonable expectation is for their performance over the next month. So using the 2011 CAIRO projected team W/L records and Bill James’s log 5 expected win method, here’s how things look.

Date	Game	xW	xL	aW	aL	aW-xW	cxW	cxL	caW	caL	caW-cxW
3/31/2011	vs Tigers	.61	.39	1	0	.39	0.6	0.4	1.0	0.0	0.4
4/2/2011	vs Tigers	.61	.39	1	0	.39	1.2	0.8	2.0	0.0	0.8
4/3/2011	vs Tigers	.61	.39	0	1	-.61	1.8	1.2	2.0	1.0	0.2
4/4/2011	vs Twins	.61	.39				2.4	1.6
4/5/2011	vs Twins	.61	.39				3.0	2.0
4/6/2011	vs Twins	.61	.39				3.6	2.4
4/7/2011	vs Twins	.61	.39				4.2	2.8
4/8/2011	@ Red Sox	.45	.55				4.7	3.3
4/9/2011	@ Red Sox	.45	.55				5.1	3.9
4/10/2011	@ Red Sox	.45	.55				5.6	4.4
4/12/2011	vs Orioles	.64	.36				6.2	4.8
4/13/2011	vs Orioles	.64	.36				6.9	5.1
4/14/2011	vs Orioles	.64	.36				7.5	5.5
4/15/2011	vs Rangers	.56	.44				8.1	5.9
4/16/2011	vs Rangers	.56	.44				8.6	6.4
4/17/2011	vs Rangers	.56	.44				9.2	6.8
4/19/2011	@ Blue Jays	.57	.43				9.8	7.2
4/20/2011	@ Blue Jays	.57	.43				10.3	7.7
4/22/2011	@ Orioles	.56	.44				10.9	8.1
4/23/2011	@ Orioles	.56	.44				11.5	8.5
4/24/2011	@ Orioles	.56	.44				12.0	9.0
4/25/2011	vs White Sox	.61	.39				12.6	9.4
4/26/2011	vs White Sox	.61	.39				13.2	9.8
4/27/2011	vs White Sox	.61	.39				13.8	10.2
4/28/2011	vs White Sox	.61	.39				14.4	10.6
4/29/2011	vs Blue Jays	.65	.35				15.1	10.9
4/30/2011	vs Blue Jays	.65	.35				15.7	11.3

The key thing here is the home/road split. The Yankees play 19 of their first 27 games at home, which is a big advantage. Of course, that then means that at some point in the year they’re going to play a whole bunch of games on the road, which is a disadvantage. The Yankees play 47 of their first 81 games at home(58%), which means the second half of the season has the potential to be rough. So, if they want to leave April on a pace that would match their season-long expectations, they really need to go 16-11 or so. Well, actually 14-10 since they took two of three from Detroit which puts them about 0.2 wins ahead of these expectations.

Since I know someone will ask, Boston has to play 15 of their first 27 games on the road. In an eerie coincidence they have the exact same log5 expected record. That’s because their games are against a somewhat weaker group of opponents. If you sum the projected winning percentages of each team’s opponents on a game by game basis, the Yankees collective opponents have a winning percentage of about .508 and the Red Sox have an opponent winning percentage of .502. It’s a difference of about a game over a month. Since the Red Sox got swept in Texas, they’re currently about 1.5 games off their expectations and need to go something like 16-8 through the end of April to catch up.

If the aggregate results of the 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout were accurate, the Red Sox were projected as being about two games better than the Yankees. Since the Yankees are now 0.2 wins ahead of where they projected to be and Boston’s 1.5 games behind where they’re projected to be, the two teams are essentially on equal footing now. So it’ll be a dogfight for the wild card behind the surging Baltimore Orioles.

--Posted at 9:41 am by SG / 8 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Looking Ahead to 2011 - Pitching and Team Wrap-Up

This is my eighth(and last) post of the day. I think I need a nap.

Now that we have an idea of how the Yankee pitching staff will look, we can try and see what we might expect out of them this year. I usually do a few different depth charts, but given the fact that the season starts tomorrow I’m just going to post the one I used for the projections I ran, adjusting for the news that Luis Ayala will start the year on the roster.

player	role	ip	cR	mR	oR	pR	zR	aR
CC Sabathia	sp1	220	95	87	92	87	87	90
Phil Hughes	sp2	200	98	89	89	90	98	93
A.J. Burnett	sp3	170	95	91	99	94	91	94
Ivan Nova	sp4	170	106	84	101	107	107	103
Freddy Garcia	sp5	150	82	79	80	87	86	83
Bartolo Colon	sp6	55	33	31	37	33	37	34
Andrew Brackman	sp7	30	20	14	24	21	20	21
Hector Noesi	sp8	10	6	5	6	6	6	6
starters total		1005	536	480	529	525	531	523
Mariano Rivera	cl	65	21	22	22	20	25	22
Rafael Soriano	su	70	28	26	27	23	27	26
David Robertson	su	70	33	32	31	29	29	31
Joba Chamberlain	mr	70	36	35	36	34	31	34
Pedro Feliciano	mr	60	30	27	32	28	29	29
Pedro Feliciano	mr	50	26	23	27	27	27	26
Steve Garrison	lr	20	12	10	14	15	15	14
Luis Ayala	mu	20	12	11	12	12	12	12
Ryan Pope	mu	10	6	5	7	7	8	7
bullpen total		435	204	190	207	194	202	201
team total		1440	740	671	736	719	734	724

cR: Projected runs allowed using CAIRO
mR: Projected runs allowed using Marcel
oR: Projected runs allowed using Oliver
pR: Projected runs allowed using PECOTA
zR: Projected runs allowed using ZiPS
aR: Average projected runs of all of the above

Figure a range of 30 runs in either direction to account for the error bars in the projections. I don’t know how much the defense is accounted for in the non-CAIRO projections. I know that for Oliver and Marcel it’s not a factor. I have the Yankee defense projected to be around 15 runs better than average, mostly thanks to the OF, so we can probably knock 10-15 runs of those runs allowed totals. The Yankee offense averages around 815 runs in the five projection systems I am looking at, which is pretty close to the 812 they averaged in the Diamond Mind simulations.

So if we wanted to estimate how good the Yankees are using the averages, figure:
815 runs scored
15 runs saved defensively
724 runs allowed by the pitchers
Pythagenpat winning percentage: .566
Pythagenpat W-L: 92-70

This is basically what the simulations said as well. So the Yankees should probably be the favorites for the wild card, and with a bit of good fortune, they should contend for the division right up until the end of the season.

That works for me.

If you want, you can use this thread to make your predictions for 2011. I’ll kick things off:

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Rangers
Wild card: Red Sox

NL East: Braves
NL Central: Reds
NL West: Giants
Wild card: Brewers

World Series: Braves over White Sox

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
AL ROY: Jeremy Hellickson

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
NL ROY: Aroldis Chapman

--Posted at 8:39 pm by SG / 40 Comments | - (0)

CAIRO 2011 v1.0

I figured I better post the final version of 2011 CAIRO before Opening Day so here it is. You can download it by clicking on the title of this entry or on this link.

--Posted at 7:46 pm by SG / 3 Comments | - (0)

Looking Ahead To 2011 - Mariano F’ing Rivera

At the advanced age of 40, Mariano Rivera had another superlative year. It was the 10th season of his career with a sub 2 ERA.

Rivera’s career is fascinating. He’s now pitched 16 seasons in his career. Over the first eight seasons of his career he pitched 579 innings with a 2.60 ERA (although that includes his rookie year where he pitched primarily as a starter to a 5.51 ERA). Over the last eight seasons, he’s pitched 571 innings of 1.86 ERA.

There are some reasons to be concerned about Rivera. As great as he is, he will be 41 this year, and the list of relievers who were successful at that age is somewhat short. Of course, the list of relievers who were ever as good as Mo for as long he’s been is probably even shorter. The other concern would be a somewhat precipitous drop in his strike out rate.

Year	BB/BF	K/BF
2007	4.1%	25.1%
2008	2.3%	29.7%
2009	4.7%	28.0%
2010	4.8%	19.6%

In general, drops like that aren’t necessarily predictive.

Year	BB/BF	K/BF	Diff
1996	8.0%	30.6%	—
1997	6.6%	22.6%	-8.0%
1998	6.9%	14.6%	-8.0%
1999	6.7%	19.4%	4.8%
2000	8.0%	18.6%	-0.8%
2001	3.9%	26.8%	8.1%
2002	5.9%	21.9%	-4.8%
2003	3.6%	22.7%	0.8%
2004	6.3%	20.9%	-1.9%
2005	5.9%	26.1%	5.3%
2006	3.8%	18.8%	-7.4%
2007	4.1%	25.1%	6.3%
2008	2.3%	29.7%	4.6%
2009	4.7%	28.0%	-1.7%
2010	4.8%	19.6%	-8.5%

diff: K/BF in year n minus K/BF in year n - 1.

As you can see, we’ve seen dips in Mo’s strikeout rate before, and it hasn’t meant anything. Of course, now that it happened at the age of 40, it might be more telling. But we won’t know that for a while.

Here’s how Mo projects for 2011.

projecton	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR	BABIP
cairo	67	68	49	22	20	5	14	62	2.91	2.65	3.08	19	1.9	.246
marcel	61	62	51	21	19	5	16	51	3.05	2.76	3.52	17	1.7	.263
oliver	60	61	51	21	19	5	11	53	3.10	2.80	3.07	16	1.6	.271
pecota	65	67	56	21	19	6	14	61	2.79	2.57	3.35	20	2.0	.273
zips	53	49	44	19	18	5	12	45	3.47	3.28	3.51	11	1.1	.285
average*	61	61	50	21	19	5	13	54	3.04	2.79	3.33	17	1.7	.267
2010	61	60	39	14	12	2	11	45	2.10	1.80	2.83	23	2.3	.223

Rivera breaks projection systems, because he constantly performs outside of their boundaries. Since projection systems are designed to work for the entire population of MLB players, they don’t necessarily do well with the outliers.

Even if Rivera “only” pitches to those projections, he’s probably one of the top five relievers in baseball (non-team composed of strictly aces division). At his age he probably needs to be used a bit more judiciously, and that’s probably where having Rafael Soriano will really help.

Here are his CAIRO percentile forecasts.

cairo%	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	77	78	43	18	16	3	10	71	2.04	1.83	2.29	30	3.0
65%	72	73	46	20	18	4	12	67	2.45	2.22	2.66	25	2.5
Baseline	67	68	49	22	20	5	14	62	2.91	2.65	3.08	19	1.9
35%	57	57	47	22	20	6	14	52	3.43	3.13	3.55	13	1.3
20%	47	48	45	21	20	6	14	43	4.02	3.69	4.09	8	0.8

The 80% forecast seems like a typical Rivera season, although he probably won’t pitch more than about 60 innings.

As long as Rivera can keep doing that, I’m fairly comfortable he’ll remain effective over the next two years. I’m just glad we’ll get to keep watching him, because I really don’t want to think of the day that Rivera’s not coming out of the pen to seal another victory.

--Posted at 3:51 pm by SG / 16 Comments | - (0)

David Robertson, Joba Chamberlain and Rafael Soriano

If David Robertson and Joba Chamberlain were setting up Rafael Soriano, you’d probably have the best bullpen in baseball. With all three of them setting up the best closer in history, you may have the best bullpen ever.

That’s a bit hyperbolic, but the Yankees do have the pieces in place for a very good bullpen.

David Robertson
Until 2008, you really didn’t hear much about Robertson. Most of the talk about potential Yankee relievers on the farm centered around Mark Melancon, and Robertson was viewed as an under-sized guy who could trick minor leaguers but would get exposed in the bigs. Robertson’s 2008 debut looked ugly on its surface (5.34 ERA), but his peripherals (3.53 FIP, 3.68 xFIP, 10.68 K/9) indicated there was something there, and he’s confirmed that over the last two season. So far in his MLB career, Robertson has struck out 11.3/9 and has put up a career FIP of 3.40 (career ERA of 3.99). The biggest problem he has is his control, as he’s walked 4.7/9 but other than that there’s little to not like there. Here’s how Robertson projects for 2011.

projecton	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR	BABIP
cairo	64	67	64	32	30	6	30	71	4.30	4.03	3.72	9	0.9	.320
marcel	61	60	56	27	26	6	26	62	4.05	3.90	3.83	10	1.0	.309
oliver	66	65	56	27	26	6	33	76	3.74	3.60	3.58	13	1.3	.308
pecota	56	73	60	30	28	7	37	88	3.75	3.45	3.68	14	1.4	.302
zips	60	67	56	28	26	6	34	83	3.76	3.49	3.58	13	1.3	.307
average*	61	66	58	29	27	6	32	76	3.92	3.69	3.70	12	1.2	.309
2010	64	61	59	26	26	5	33	71	3.82	3.82	3.66	11	1.1	.336

THe projections are pretty stable across the board, and peg Robertson to be worth a bit more than one win above replacement level, and a hair better than last year, primarily due to an expected regression in his BABIP (batting average on balls in play against).

Here are Robertson’s CAIRO percentile forecasts.

cairo%	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	73	77	57	27	25	4	25	81	3.15	2.94	2.73	20	2.0
65%	69	72	61	29	28	5	28	76	3.69	3.45	3.20	14	1.4
Baseline	64	67	64	32	30	6	30	71	4.30	4.03	3.72	9	0.9
35%	54	57	61	31	29	7	29	60	4.98	4.68	4.32	3	0.3
20%	45	47	58	30	28	7	28	50	5.76	5.43	4.99	-1	-0.1

If Robertson can cut his walk rate, he could really be something special, but I’m not sure that’s realistic. The 65% CAIRO forecast is pretty close to the average of his non-CAIRO projections, so that seems like a reasonable target.

Joba Chamberlain
One thing that I’ve wondered about that I haven’t seen discussed anywhere is why the Yankees didn’t consider returning Joba Chamberlain back to the rotation. In any event, he won’t be starting this year. Here are his projections.

projecton	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR	BABIP
cairo	50	85	81	44	40	9	32	80	4.66	4.24	3.96	8	0.8	.302
marcel	44	85	82	42	38	8	32	79	4.45	4.02	3.84	10	1.0	.306
oliver	55	106	103	58	52	11	42	103	4.90	4.44	3.79	7	0.7	.310
pecota	49	109	103	53	48	12	45	111	4.34	4.00	4.00	14	1.4	.307
zips	77	78	71	34	32	8	29	83	3.94	3.71	3.63	13	1.3	.306
average*	55	93	88	46	42	10	36	91	4.48	4.10	3.88	10	1.0	.307
2010	73	72	71	37	35	6	22	77	4.65	4.40	3.23	7	0.7	.332

On first glance, these projections look pretty bad, but aside from ZiPS they are a hybrid of start and relief projections. A weighted average of innings pitched puts the starter component of his projection at somewhere between 40-45% of his projection depending on the weights used by each projection. A rough rule of thumb is that a pitcher will be 20% more effective as a reliever. So in Chamberlain’s case you can probably knock off about 1/2 a run of RA/ERA/FIP. As you can see from his 2010 line, his primary problem was his BABIP against. For the most part, BABIP will regress towards league average, although we don’t necessarily know how much that will affect Joba.

Here are Joba’s CAIRO percentile forecasts.

cairo%	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	60	98	70	36	32	5	25	93	3.28	2.95	2.80	24	2.4
65%	55	91	76	40	36	7	28	86	3.93	3.55	3.34	16	1.6
Baseline	50	85	81	44	40	9	32	80	4.66	4.24	3.96	8	0.8
35%	43	74	75	41	38	9	30	70	5.03	4.59	4.28	4	0.4
20%	37	64	69	38	35	9	28	60	5.43	4.96	4.62	0	0.0

The innings are high, so knock them down by about 15-20. My guess is Joba will be somewhere between that 80% and 65% forecast, but in about 80 innings which would make his WAR something in the 1.5-1.7 area. For a reliever, that’s a very good number. His value will also be dependent on what situations he’s used in. If he’s used in low-leverage middle innings he won’t be quite as valuable, and if he earns the right to be used in more crucial situations he’ll be more valuable in terms of win expectancy.

I really don’t know if Chamberlain will ever get a chance at the rotation again. If he has a great year, it may reinforce to the Yankees that he’s more suited to the pen, and if he has a bad year then there’s no reason to think he’d be any better as a starter.

Rafael Soriano
I’m going to ignore the fact that I hated the Soriano signing and just focus on his performance. He’s not as good as his raw numbers made him look in 2010, but he’s still a very good reliever. Here are his 2011 projections.

projecton	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR	BABIP
cairo	66	66	50	26	24	7	17	61	3.55	3.27	3.55	14	1.4	.248
marcel	65	64	50	24	22	6	20	60	3.38	3.09	3.58	15	1.5	.259
oliver	54	53	43	20	18	5	18	55	3.40	3.11	3.37	12	1.2	.278
pecota	57	56	44	19	17	6	18	60	2.98	2.74	3.52	16	1.6	.271
zips	56	52	42	20	19	6	16	59	3.46	3.29	3.41	12	1.2	.282
average*	60	58	46	22	20	6	18	59	3.36	3.10	3.51	14	1.4	.266
2010	64	62	36	14	12	4	14	57	2.02	1.73	2.98	24	2.4	.205

There’s this notion that the Yankees haven’t had a setup man as good as Soriano since Tom Gordon, or when Mariano Rivera was setting up John Wetteland, but it’s stupid. They had a better setup man in 2009. Anyway, back to Soriano, the projections expect him to not repeat his flukishly low BABIP against of .205, which is why you see the decrease in his projected performance. Those projected BABIP seem low for the average pitcher, but in his career Soriano has held opposing hitters to a BABIP against of .242, so we have evidence that there is some skill there.

There’s nothing wrong with Soriano’s projection, aside from the fact that it isn’t worth $12M.
Here are his CAIRO percentile forecasts.

cairo%	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	76	76	44	21	19	4	13	70	2.54	2.32	2.63	25	2.5
65%	71	71	47	24	22	6	15	66	3.01	2.77	3.06	19	1.9
Baseline	66	66	50	26	24	7	17	61	3.55	3.27	3.55	14	1.4
35%	56	56	48	26	24	7	17	51	4.15	3.84	4.10	8	0.8
20%	46	46	46	25	23	8	17	43	4.84	4.49	4.73	3	0.3

I think CAIRO’s baseline is underselling Soriano because he has shown skill in limiting BABIP, so I think the 65% forecast feels about right. While there are some health concerns with Soriano based on his past, it’s Tommy John surgery which has a pretty good success rate. While I have it on good authority I will be kneeling before Soriano, I am not going to do it if he doesn’t hit that 80% forecast.

The Yankees probably could have gone into 2011 with just Robertson and Chamberlain and the various lefties setting up Mo, but there’s a fair amount of uncertainty with Robertson and Chamberlain. In Robertson’s case it’s his control, and in Joba’s case we just don’t know how good he is given the fact that he hasn’t been the same pitcher since he missed time in 2008. Either one or both could certainly step up to be dominant, but with Soriano around they don’t have to be. If they all pitch well, it’s a good thing.

--Posted at 11:13 am by SG / 27 Comments | - (0)

Looking Ahead To 2011 - Bartolo Colon, Pedro Feliciano and Boone Logan

A lot of the Yankees’ hopes are based on a bullpen that has the potential to be the best in baseball. I originally thought of doing one post titled CoNoLoRoJoSoMo, but decided that would be Michael Kay-ish and that Mariano Rivera deserves his own post, so here’s a look at the projections for the first group of relievers.

Bartolo Colon
Colon and Eric Chavez are probably the biggest surprises to be starting the season in pinstripes. Colon did not pitch in the majors in 2010 and since 2007 he’s thrown a grand total of 200 innings, with an ERA of 5.20 and a FIP of 4.97. Colon had a surprising good spring and made the team as the long reliever. It’s important to understand that the reason Colon made the team was not for the statistics he put up, which are meaningless, but for how he did it. More than one scout raved about how Colon looked this spring, throwing a 91-94 mph two-seam fastball and a decent curve and good change with command.

For that reason, I think Colon’s projections are basically useless. He’s not the same pitcher he was when he last pitched in the majors (averaging 89 mph for the White Sox in 2009). Regardless, since I can’t do anything but look at stats here are his projections.

projecton	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR	BABIP
cairo	19	107	117	65	55	16	35	70	5.42	4.66	4.90	7	0.7	.295
marcel	13	66	69	37	31	9	23	46	5.05	4.23	4.72	7	0.7	.292
oliver	16	80	91	58	48	14	25	49	6.48	5.43	5.19	-4	-0.4	.296
pecota	52	56	61	33	31	5	26	37	5.38	4.95	4.55	4	0.4	.311
zips	8	38	44	26	24	6	14	20	6.10	5.63	5.52	-1	-0.1	.294
average*	22	69	76	44	38	10	24	44	5.66	4.91	4.96	2	0.2	.297

Those projections assume that he’s a starter, so you can probably knock about a run off if he’s strictly used as a reliever, but as I said I think they’re effectively meaningless. If Colon pitches that poorly, he won’t be on the team for long.

As you’d expect, with Colon he has a wide range of possible forecasts in CAIRO.

cairo%	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	24	120	108	58	49	12	29	80	4.32	3.68	3.96	22	2.2
65%	22	114	112	61	52	14	32	75	4.85	4.15	4.41	14	1.4
Baseline	19	107	117	65	55	16	35	70	5.42	4.66	4.90	7	0.7
35%	15	92	110	62	53	16	34	59	6.05	5.22	5.43	-1	-0.1
20%	12	77	102	58	50	16	32	49	6.74	5.85	6.03	-7	-0.7

I’m not sure what they’ll get out of Colon. I’m cautiously optimistic that what we saw in spring was indicative that he’ll be pretty good when he pitches, but I don’t know how long he’ll last before breaking down. As the long reliever and I assume possible sixth starter, Colon’s success isn’t vital to the success of the Yankees in 2011, but if he does pitch well he can help them possibly exceed expectations.

Pedro Feliciano
Assuming Feliciano doesn’t go Marte, he should return to the Yankees by May and be their primary left-handed specialist. Projections and WAR and whatever don’t really tell us the value of a platoon pitcher, because they are better considered as a tactical option that can be used strategically in specifically high-leverage situations to improve your win expectancy. But Ill put his projections up anyway.

projecton	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR	BABIP
cairo	87	65	69	33	30	6	21	53	4.57	4.15	3.92	7	0.7	.317
marcel	93	62	62	28	25	5	25	55	4.06	3.63	3.83	10	1.0	.314
oliver	89	59	59	34	30	6	25	51	5.13	4.58	4.06	2	0.2	.306
pecota	93	61	58	29	26	5	27	52	4.20	3.86	4.03	9	0.9	.296
zips	82	55	54	27	25	5	22	50	4.39	4.07	4.03	7	0.7	.308
average*	89	61	60	30	27	5	24	52	4.47	4.05	4.00	7	0.7	.308
2010	92	63	66	24	23	1	30	56	3.45	3.30	3.20	14	1.4	.341

cairo%	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	98	75	62	28	25	4	17	61	3.36	3.02	2.94	18	1.8
65%	93	70	65	30	28	5	19	57	3.93	3.55	3.40	12	1.2
Baseline	87	65	69	33	30	6	21	53	4.57	4.15	3.92	7	0.7
35%	74	55	66	32	29	7	21	44	5.30	4.83	4.51	1	0.1
20%	62	46	62	31	28	7	20	37	6.12	5.61	5.19	-3	-0.3

The peripherals and overall performance don’t look great, but that’s because the projections include his numbers against righties. Over the last four seasons here are Feliciano’s splits.

PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG
508	429	125	23	4	11	70	86	4.99	.291	.390	.441
526	472	96	18	1	7	35	140	17.31	.203	.270	.290

Basically, Feliciano’s season will be judged on how he does against Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz, Johnny Damon, Dan Johnson and any other lefties he faces in crucial situations. The numbers show that he should be successful more often than not, but then again they showed the same for Mike Myers prior to his forgettable Yankee tenure.

Boone Logan
Logan is the only thing that kept the Javier Vazquez trade from being an unmitigated disaster, although with Arodys Vizcaino back and healthy nothing may be able to salvage it. Logan was a surprise, in that I knew nothing about him but his stat line before he was acquired so I was surprised to see a lefty who could touch the mid-90s. He had the best year of his career in 2011, which was good for the Yankees but also means that until we see him repeat it we don’t know if it was due to ability or random variance. Here are his projections.

projecton	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR	BABIP
cairo	54	48	49	25	23	5	18	39	4.69	4.31	4.18	4	0.4	.305
marcel	59	47	46	22	21	5	19	39	4.21	4.02	4.26	7	0.7	.296
oliver	69	55	56	31	29	7	24	46	5.04	4.81	4.49	3	0.3	.302
pecota	60	57	56	31	28	7	26	51	4.81	4.43	4.58	4	0.4	.298
zips	56	54	54	29	27	6	24	49	4.80	4.47	4.37	4	0.4	.305
average*	60	52	52	27	26	6	22	45	4.73	4.42	4.42	4	0.4	.301
2010	51	40	34	13	13	3	20	38	2.93	2.93	3.93	11	1.1	.284

cairo%	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	63	56	43	20	19	3	14	46	3.28	2.98	2.99	14	1.4
65%	58	52	46	23	21	4	16	43	3.93	3.60	3.54	9	0.9
Baseline	54	48	49	25	23	5	18	39	4.69	4.31	4.18	4	0.4
35%	45	40	47	25	23	6	18	32	5.56	5.13	4.91	0	0.0
20%	37	33	45	24	22	6	18	26	6.57	6.09	5.77	-4	-0.4

I doubt Logan will be as good as he was last year, but I do think his projections are underselling him a bit. His 65% forecast seems about right to me, and would make him a useful part of the team. This will be especially true if Pedro Feliciano doesn’t return soon.

The fact that these are probably the three worst relievers on the team means the Yankees look to have one hell of a pen.

--Posted at 8:29 am by SG / 8 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Looking Ahead To 2011 - Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia

There’s a very good chance that the Yankees’ hopes for contending will come down to what they get out of the fourth and fifth spots in their rotation, which are currently manned by Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia.

Ivan Nova’s been considered a decent pitching prospect for a few years now, although it’s primarily due to his stuff and not his minor league performance. In 2010 he had far and away the best year of his career in the minors, and 10 games(seven starts) at the major league level where he put up 42 innings of league average pitching.

It’s not just the Yankees who considered Nova a prospect, as he was taken by the San Diego Padres in the 2008 Rule 5 draft. Fortunately for the Yankees, the Padres determined they couldn’t carry him in the majors all year after a lousy spring and returned him prior to the start of the 2009 season.

Here are Nova’s projections for 2011.

projecton	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR	BABIP	BB/9	K/9	HBP	GS	W	L
bill_james	16	80	86	45	41	7	36	57	5.04	4.61	4.34	8	0.8	.311	4.05	6.41	2	14	4	5
cairo	22	116	130	72	67	15	49	72	5.59	5.20	5.04	5	0.5	.303	3.80	5.59	5	20	6	7
marcel	17	71	69	35	32	7	26	52	4.44	4.06	4.20	12	1.2	.287	3.30	6.59	2	12	3	4
oliver	37	155	170	90	82	18	69	97	5.24	4.79	4.80	13	1.3	.302	4.02	5.65		26	8	10
pecota	20	119	136	75	69	15	53	66	5.68	5.23	5.19	4	0.4	.303	4.01	5.00	5	20	6	8
zips	28	150	170	94	88	19	69	88	5.65	5.29	5.18	5	0.5	.304	4.15	5.30	7	26	7	8
average*	25	122	135	73	68	15	53	75	5.40	4.99	4.97	8	0.8	.301	3.92	5.53	5	21	6	7
2010	33	187	179	72	67	14	65	141	3.47	3.22	3.74	52	5.2	.291	3.13	6.79	2	30	13	5

Marcel ignores MLEs, which is why it appears so much more favorable. Since Nova’s prospectdom(is that a word?) was based more on his tools and less on his performance, his projections aren’t particularly great. The biggest issue with Nova is how his BB rate and K rate translate. The average projection sees him walking about 3.9 batters per nine and striking out just 5.5, and that’s not the recipe for big league success.

Of course, Nova has youth on his side, and he throws hard, and we have circumstantial evidence to think he’s not the same pitcher he was prior to this year. If the new cutter is something that will help him improve those walk rates and K rates, there’s no reason to think he can’t outpitch those projections.

Here are Nova’s percentile forecasts.

cairo%	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	27	129	121	65	60	11	43	82	4.51	4.18	4.13	21	2.1
65%	25	123	126	68	64	13	46	77	5.02	4.66	4.56	13	1.3
Baseline	22	116	130	72	67	15	49	72	5.59	5.20	5.04	5	0.5
35%	18	100	122	69	64	15	47	61	6.20	5.78	5.56	-3	-0.3
20%	14	84	113	64	60	15	45	51	6.88	6.43	6.13	-9	-0.9

The innings are a little low across the board, so multiply those estimates by a bit to get them closer to what we may see. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Nova giving the Yankees 160 innings of that 80% projection, but I’d more realistically hope that they can get 150 innings of that 65% forecast. That makes him worth about 1.6 wins above a replacement level pitcher, which is great for your #4 starter.

Even though I expect some growing pains, I am looking forward to watching Nova pitch this year, especially if what we saw in the spring was evidence of what he may do this year. I’ll take six no-hit innings every game.

Moving on to the less exciting part of the 4th/5th spot, here’s how Freddy Garcia projects in 2011.

projecton	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR	BABIP
bill_james	27	148	155	73	69	21	42	99	4.43	4.20	4.64	17	1.7	.289
cairo	31	31	32	17	16	4	11	22	4.94	4.65	4.62	2	0.2	.292
marcel	25	144	152	76	72	18	44	91	4.75	4.50	4.54	12	1.2	.291
oliver	18	101	111	63	60	15	29	62	5.64	5.35	4.76	-2	-0.2	.294
pecota	20	109	119	63	58	17	33	68	5.23	4.81	4.97	3	0.3	.291
zips	15	82	90	47	44	12	23	51	5.16	4.83	4.77	3	0.3	.295
average*	22	93	101	53	50	13	28	59	5.14	4.82	4.75	4	0.4	.292
2010	28	157	171	85	81	23	45	89	4.87	4.64	4.89	11	1.1	.288

Garcia’s innings project low because he missed a lot of time from 2007-2009.

Here’s how Garcia’s percentile forecasts look if we use 155 IP for the baseline.

cairo%	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	33	169	152	78	73	16	49	122	4.16	3.90	3.94	25	2.5
65%	30	162	156	82	77	18	52	116	4.53	4.26	4.27	17	1.7
Baseline	25	155	160	85	80	20	55	110	4.94	4.65	4.62	10	1.0
35%	20	132	152	82	77	21	54	93	5.60	5.28	5.19	-2	-0.2
20%	15	111	142	78	74	21	52	77	6.34	5.99	5.84	-10	-1.0

I think the baseline is about the best we can realistically hope for. The good news is if he is pitching worse than that, he’ll probably get replaced by someone, be it Bartolo Colon, Kevin Millwood, Andrew Brackman, Hector Noesi, or someone else.

The Yankees don’t need greatness out of 4/5, although if A.J. Burnett implodes they may need them to be better than adequate. I don’t want to get too hyped on spring training results, but Nova really did look fantastic and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him as the Yankees’ third-best starter by year end. As for Garcia, I’ll just hope he’s serviceable enough to keep the Yankees in most games. FWIW, he had 19 quality starts (games of 6 IP, 3 R or fewer allowed) last year. You know who else had 19 quality starts? “Rapid” Cliff Lee.

--Posted at 12:06 pm by SG / 43 Comments | - (0)

Looking Ahead To 2011 - Position Player Wrap-Up

With the bench looking settled now, I’ll buzz through the projections for Eric Chavez, Andruw Jones, Eduardo Nunez, Chris Dickerson, Francisco Cervelli and Gustavo Molina and summarize the team’s position players.

Offense

player	Chavez, Eric	age	34
projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR	BABIP
cairo	176	160	19	39	10	0	5	19	1	1	13	.244	.301	.400	.306	19	69	-2	4	.279
marcel	265	241	26	57	14	1	5	27	2	1	19	.237	.291	.365	.288	25	61	-6	3	.281
oliver	239	219	23	51	12	0	4	24	1	0	17	.233	.285	.342	.278	21	57	-7	1	.294
pecota	450	405	46	90	20	1	10	43	2	1	41	.222	.293	.351	.287	41	59	-12	4	.269
zips	123	112	11	23	6	0	2	13	0	0	9	.205	.260	.313	.255	9	46	-6	-1	.250
average*	251	227	25	52	12	0	5	25	1	1	20	.229	.289	.355	.285	23	59	-7	2	.277
2010	126	114	10	27	8	0	1	10	0	0	8	.237	.278	.333	.268	10	53	-4	0	.306

player	Jones, Andruw	age	34
projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR	BABIP
cairo	386	333	47	74	16	1	16	51	6	2	44	.222	.313	.420	.320	45	76	0	8	.248
marcel	397	343	46	75	17	1	16	46	7	2	47	.219	.315	.414	.319	46	76	0	8	.247
oliver	394	338	48	74	15	1	18	53	5	2	51	.219	.325	.429	.331	48	80	2	10	.246
pecota	455	390	55	88	17	1	21	55	7	2	56	.226	.327	.436	.334	57	82	3	13	.251
zips	337	290	40	64	13	1	16	46	6	2	41	.221	.320	.438	.330	42	81	2	9	.244
average*	394	339	47	75	16	1	17	50	6	2	48	.221	.320	.427	.327	48	79	1	9	.247
2010	328	278	41	64	12	1	19	48	9	2	45	.230	.341	.486	.357	47	93	8	15	.239

player	Nuñez, Eduardo	age	26
projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR	BABIP
cairo	528	494	61	127	22	2	7	48	19	7	26	.257	.295	.352	.287	49	60	-13	5	.285
marcel	226	203	32	56	10	1	6	27	7	1	19	.276	.341	.424	.336	29	83	2	10	.303
oliver	526	489	56	132	21	2	7	49	13	5	25	.270	.302	.364	.293	50	62	-11	7	.305
pecota	496	465	53	126	21	2	7	49	15	5	20	.271	.300	.370	.294	49	64	-10	8	.302
zips	608	570	64	153	26	2	8	52	21	8	29	.268	.304	.363	.295	59	63	-13	9	.297
average*	477	444	53	119	20	2	7	45	15	5	24	.267	.305	.368	.296	47	64	-9	8	.297
2010	559	514	67	148	26	3	5	57	28	5	35	.288	.336	.379	.319	65	76	-1	19	.316

player	Molina, Gustavo	age	29
projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR	BABIP
cairo	243	225	23	54	12	0	6	26	1	1	12	.240	.280	.373	.284	22	60	-6	6	.271
marcel	204	183	24	47	9	1	5	22	3	1	17	.257	.324	.399	.319	23	74	-1	9	.294
oliver	355	327	31	65	14	0	10	38	0	0	16	.199	.237	.333	.247	25	45	-17	1	.231
pecota	450	417	43	92	17	2	12	45	1	0	21	.221	.260	.357	.268	37	53	-16	6	.248
zips	197	185	17	42	9	0	5	20	0	1	8	.227	.259	.357	.267	16	51	-7	2	.253
average*	290	267	28	60	12	1	8	30	1	1	15	.224	.266	.360	.273	24	55	-9	5	.255
2010	126	119	13	28	5	0	8	18	0	0	7	.235	.278	.479	.320	16	81	1	7	.233

player	Dickerson, Chris	age	29
projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR	BABIP
cairo	223	194	26	50	10	2	4	18	7	2	23	.259	.337	.392	.323	26	77	0	5	.329
marcel	283	248	32	64	12	3	5	22	9	2	29	.258	.336	.391	.323	34	77	0	6	.326
oliver	382	328	47	80	14	4	7	34	12	5	44	.244	.330	.375	.314	42	72	-3	5	.340
pecota	450	386	53	96	18	3	10	45	20	6	54	.249	.340	.389	.325	54	78	1	10	.326
zips	326	282	40	67	12	4	7	26	16	6	36	.238	.322	.383	.312	37	74	-2	5	.321
average*	333	288	40	71	13	3	7	29	13	4	37	.248	.333	.385	.319	39	76	-1	6	.329
2010	161	140	23	39	7	2	3	12	10	1	15	.279	.335	.421	.328	21	87	2	6	.375

player	Cervelli, Francisco	age	25
projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR	BABIP
cairo	292	256	29	65	12	1	3	32	2	2	24	.254	.325	.344	.302	28	63	-6	8	.286
marcel	369	320	38	88	15	2	4	43	3	3	33	.275	.341	.372	.318	40	71	-3	15	.308
oliver	355	310	35	77	14	1	3	29	2	1	30	.248	.318	.329	.293	33	60	-9	8	.300
pecota	450	397	49	101	18	2	5	40	3	1	37	.254	.322	.348	.301	44	64	-9	13	.294
zips	310	269	25	69	12	2	2	29	1	3	26	.257	.326	.338	.299	29	61	-7	8	.298
average*	355	310	35	80	14	2	3	35	2	2	30	.258	.327	.347	.303	35	64	-7	11	.298
2010	317	266	27	72	11	3	0	38	1	1	33	.271	.350	.335	.312	32	66	-5	11	.305

None of those projections inspires much confidence, except maybe Dickerson’s. In the context of a backup catcher there’s also nothing wrong with that Cervelli projection either I guess.

I suppose you can hope that better health lets Chavez exceed his projection, and that platooning lets Jones be a bit better on a rate basis, and that Nunez’s tools mean he can beat that projection, but really, the Yankees need their starters to stay reasonably healthy, which I think we already knew.

CAIRO has the Yankees projected as scoring around 821 runs, using this basic depth chart.

player	pos	pa	outs	br	rs
Derek Jeter	ss	600	403	75	-6
Nick Swisher	rf	600	400	84	2
Mark Teixeira	1b	625	403	99	5
Alex Rodriguez	3b	550	357	89	-3
Robinson Cano	2b	625	422	95	0
Jorge Posada	dh	500	331	70	0
Curtis Granderson	cf	575	390	78	4
Russell Martin	c	500	333	60	2
Brett Gardner	lf	550	360	68	11
starters		5125	3399	718	15

bench	pos	pa	outs	br	rs
Andruw Jones	of	247	175	29	0
Francisco Cervelli	c	200	141	19	0
Eric Chavez	3B	200	144	21	0
Eduardo Nuñez	if	200	147	18	0
Jesus Montero	c	130	93	16	0
bench		977	701	103	0
team		6102	4100	821	15

br are linear weights batting runs, and rs are estimated defensive runs saved compared to average. I’ve purposely set the bench to average because I don’t know that projecting defense for part-time players who may play multiple positions makes any sense. We can probably figure that Jesus Montero will be below average and that Eric Chavez should be decent.

The same depth chart with the other projection systems plus CAIRO average out to about 812 runs scored. That’s the second highest total projected runs scored in baseball behind Boston, and it’s the best total if you account for park. So barring major injury, the offense should do its part, which I think we already knew. I’ll include the defense with the pitching wrap-up.

--Posted at 8:15 am by SG / 48 Comments | - (0)

Monday, March 28, 2011

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - American League Edition

Opening Day is just days away, so it’s time to present my annual Diamond Mind Projection blowout. The idea behind this is to take several projection systems and run the 2011 season multiple times through Diamond Mind Baseball, which I consider to be the most statistically accurate baseball simulator available.

I’ve done a version of this since 2005. If you want to see how previous runs have gone, here are the links:

2005
2006
2007
2008 Pt 1
2008 Pt 2
2009 AL
2009 NL
2010 AL
2010 NL

As you can see if you look at the prior runs, the results can be hit and miss, but that’s certainly understandable.

Before I present the projected standings, it’s disclaimer time.

1) Projection systems are inherently limited in their accuracy, particularly for pitchers. We can get a rough idea of how most players will perform by looking at their past histories and how similar players have performed, and factoring in aging and regression, but abilities/talent can change in ways that can’t be forecasted.

2) Playing time distribution in these simulations will not match actual 2011 playing time. I used the rosters and depth charts available at the absolutely awesome MLB Depth Charts as my guide to set these up as realistically as possible, but it’s a possible source of error. Rosters were set up to have 35-40 or so active players per team, and to get a reasonable amount of playing time from the bench and extra pitchers, to more closely model reality. Basically, no players are set to play more than 90% of the time, starting catchers are restricted to at most about 75% of the games, and I’ve made sure teams get a non-trivial amount of starts from their 6-8 starters. The healthier a team is in 2011, the more likely they will be to exceed these projections.

3) We cannot predict injuries and/or roster changes. These simulations do try to adjust projected playing time based on past health issues, so someone like Brandon Webb or Erik Bedard is not expected to make 30 starts. I’ve also included random injuries which may lead to some of the outlying results you see, but there’s no way to account for all the fluctuations that will happen with rosters this season.

4) These are NOT my predictions. These are projections based on running a computer simulation hundreds of thousands of times with projection data that is inherently limited. If your favorite team doesn’t project well, don’t blame me, blame the computers and spreadsheets that projected them. I guess you can blame me for the CAIRO results if you want, otherwise you can take heart in the 2005 White Sox projecting to win 79 games, the 2006 Tigers projecting to win 80, or the 2010 Giants projecting to go 81-81. These are not meant to tell you how the season is going to play out. I prefer to think of them more as a starting point for discussion, with a range of something like 10 wins in either direction based on how things actually end up playing out. You can look at them and argue about why you think some teams will be better or worse.

5) Since this is all automated, I don’t break ties. I simply award all ties a share of either the division title or wild card when it happens which is why you may see some funny decimal places in the standings that follow.

6) While the Diamond Mind engine is pretty good at giving us some variance in player and team performances over multiple simulations, it’s not quite good enough to model reality. Diamond Mind’s standard deviation for team wins is generally in the six to seven win range, but given the possible variations in playing time and in player performance, a better standard deviation is probably closer to the 10 to 13 win range. So I’ve taken the results from each set of projections (which I ran 1,000 times) and then run them through a Monte Carlo simulator 100,000 times. It won’t change the average win totals much, but it will give us a slightly higher standard deviation on team wins which will give us slightly different division and wild card percentages which should be more realistic.

7) These are the averages of hundreds of thousands of simulated seasons, so the results will tend to regress towards the mean. The final standings will not look like this, because they only play the season once. The idea behind is not necessarily to tell us how the final standings will look. Think of it more as a starting point for discussion. You can look at these and think about why you think teams will be better or worse.

OK, so now that the disclaimers are out of the way, onto the projected standings. I am showing W-L to one decimal place to deal with displayed rounding issues and so I don’t get people asking me why the wins and losses don’t add up to exactly 2430, not to imply that these results are that precise.

There’s too much crap to fit it all into one post, so I’ve created a separate post for each projection system I will use this post to show the results of the aggregate for the American League. You can follow the links below to look at the National League’s aggregate results and the individual projection systems’ results.

This year, I’m using five different projection systems. You can click on each of the links below to get some more information about each system and to see how their projected standings look.

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - National League Edition

Bill James
CAIRO
Marcel
Oliver
PECOTA

In the past I included CHONE and ZiPS. Unfortunately, CHONE is not available this season and the ZiPS disk came out too late for me to use it.

American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Red Sox	94.4	67.6	817	687	42.1%	17.8%	59.8%	84-104	788-846	661-714	5.4	-1	-57
Yankees	92.4	69.6	812	707	32.8%	18.2%	51.0%	82-102	783-840	680-734	-2.6	-47	14
Rays	86.1	75.9	762	704	16.0%	13.4%	29.4%	76-96	734-789	678-731	-9.9	-40	55
Orioles	78.6	83.4	748	777	6.0%	6.5%	12.5%	69-89	720-775	749-805	12.6	135	-8
Blue Jays	73.9	88.1	686	751	3.1%	3.2%	6.3%	64-84	659-712	724-779	-11.1	-69	23
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Tigers	84.6	77.4	723	693	31.2%	6.4%	37.7%	75-95	696-750	667-719	3.6	-28	-50
Twins	84.4	77.6	767	733	30.7%	6.6%	37.3%	74-94	739-794	706-760	-9.6	-14	62
White Sox	82.8	79.2	723	721	25.6%	6.3%	31.9%	73-93	696-750	694-748	-5.2	-20	-24
Indians	74.3	87.7	720	779	8.8%	2.6%	11.4%	64-84	693-747	751-807	5.3	74	27
Royals	68.4	93.6	680	806	3.7%	1.2%	4.9%	58-78	654-706	777-834	1.4	4	-39
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	88.0	74.0	746	680	45.7%	5.9%	51.6%	78-98	719-774	654-707	-2.0	-41	-7
Athletics	84.6	77.4	681	646	31.3%	6.1%	37.4%	75-95	655-707	620-671	3.6	18	20
Angels	77.9	84.1	666	687	14.9%	3.6%	18.5%	68-88	640-691	661-713	-2.1	-15	-15
Mariners	73.6	88.4	639	711	8.1%	2.2%	10.3%	64-84	614-665	685-738	12.6	126	13

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W Std: Wins range within one standard deviation
RS Std: Runs scored within one standard deviation
RA Std: Runs allowed within one standard deviation
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

One thing I need to note, since it may not be obvious. Those standings are NOT saying the Tigers are going to win the AL Central with 84.6 wins. They are saying the Tigers projected to win the AL Central most frequently(31.2% of the time) and that they averaged 84.6 wins. Those are two separate things. In order to actually win the division, the AL Central winner had to win 90 games on average.

Here are the average wins for each place in the AL, plus the wild card.

Division	AL East
Place	# W
1	98
2	91
3	86
4	79
5	72
Division	AL Central
Place	# W
1	90
2	84
3	80
4	74
5	67
Division	AL West
Place	# W
1	91
2	84
3	78
4	71
AL Wild Card	92

Regular readers know that this whole exercise is an excuse to make fancy pie charts, so here’s how the AL division title percentages look for the aggregate in pie chart form.

I’ll run through the divisions and teams briefly:

AL East

Boston Red Sox
Average Projected Wins: 94
Division Title Percentage: 42.1%
Wild Card Percentage: 17.8%
Playoff Percentage: 59.8%

Boston projects as the best team in baseball, but they don’t project to be some 110 win juggernaut. They obviously added a couple of nice pieces in Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, but they lost two very important players from last year’s team in Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez. The bulk of Boston’s projected improvement is based on the assumptions of better health from some of their key players who missed significant time last year, and on some bounce back years from some of their pitchers who struggled.

Why they might be better than projected: There’s little doubt that Adrian Gonzalez has moved from a park that suppresses offense significantly to one that boosts offense. You never know exactly how an individual player’s performance will be affected by moving to a new park, so there’s a chance that his projections may not fully capture how much he’ll benefit. So if Gonzalez is able to take more advantage of Fenway than expected, he may exceed his projections
In addition to that, while most of the projections expect some bounce back from Josh Beckett, John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka, any one of them or all of them might be able to outperform their projections.
They may also get better than expected performance out of shortstop if Jed Lowrie can stay healthy and take away some of Marco Scutaro’s time.

Why they might be worse than projected: You shouldn’t read too much into spring training performance, but Beckett has looked pretty shaky. If he’s not healthy or he’s lost some zip even a modest bounce back may be asking too much. Kevin Youkilis hasn’t played a lot of 3B over the past two years, and there’s a chance his defense there might be lacking, although he’s got good numbers at 3B in his career. They may also have trouble with lefties in the late innings with their bullpen if Dennys Reyes and/or Hideki Okajima are ineffective, although Daniel Bard, Bobby Jenks and Jonathan Papelbon have generally been pretty effective against them. Their lineup may be a bit more susceptible to LHP.

New York Yankees
Average Projected Wins: 92
Division Title Percentage: 32.8%
Wild Card Percentage: 18.2%
Playoff Percentage: 51.0%

The Yankees are probably not as good as Boston, although with the error bars in any projection a gap of two wins is effectively not much of a gap. At least one NL team’s scouts seem to think the Yankees are better.

Why they might be better than projected: I’ve assumed that Jesus Montero will only get about 200 PA, but if he’s able to exceed that and play passable defense the Yankees can probably get a few more runs out of him than they would out of Russell Martin and/or Francisco Cervelli.

It’s not likely, but I don’t think anyone would be shocked to see Alex Rodriguez put up an MVP-caliber season, which is not something he’s projected to do. He’s tearing the cover off the ball in spring training, although that’s not necessarily predictive.

The Yankees’ rotation has a lot of uncertainty in it, but but if A.J. Burnett can pitch closer to how he did in 2009 and they get serviceable pitching out of Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia they’ll be in in pretty good shape. They’ve also got some intriguing arms that are long on potential in AA and AAA that may end up helping them out as the season proceeds.

Why they might be worse than projected: Derek Jeter may set the all-time record for grounding into double plays. The lineup looks strong, but they’re not particularly young and there’s a chance they’ll get worse than expected performances/missed time from some of their key players and they don’t have a ton of depth behind the starters. Jorge Posada’s bat would probably still play well at catcher, but it’s uncertain how well it’ll play as a DH. The uncertainty that may help the Yankee rotation out-perform their projections could also cause it to crash and burn.

Tampa Bay Rays
Average Projected Wins: 86
Division Title Percentage: 16.0%
Wild Card Percentage: 13.4%
Playoff Percentage: 29.4%

The Rays have won the AL East in two of the past three seasons. Despite that, the “experts” aren’t expecting a lot out of Tampa Bay since they lost their entire bullpen and Carl Crawford. Of course, those experts should probably take a look at how they built that bullpen in the first place. Most were traded for at a minimal cost or signed relatively cheaply and there’s no reason to think they can’t cobble a similarly good pen together in 2011.
Why they might be better than projected: They’ve got youth on their side with a lot of their key players. They also have a lot of flexibility with players who can play several positions and hit well, which should help mitigate any injuries or poor performances. It’s looking less likely that B.J. Upton’s going to turn into a superstar, but you never know.

Why they might be worse than projected: Some of their younger players like Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson may have some growing pains, and some of their hopes for contending are contingent on Ben Zobrist hitting a bit better than he did in 2010 coming off a back injury.

Baltimore Orioles
Average Projected Wins: 79
Division Title Percentage: 6.0%
Wild Card Percentage: 6.5%
Playoff Percentage: 12.5%

The Orioles may have improved more than any other team in baseball, at least if you compare their projections to their 2010 performance. Their lineup looks pretty good, and Brian Matusz looks like he’s on his way to becoming one of the best young pitchers in baseball. The Orioles played very well after Buck Showalter took over, although that in and of itself is not necessarily predictive.

Why they might be better than projected: They could see better than expected performances out of Matt Wieters, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis, all of who have been somewhat disappointing relative to expectations so far. If they can get good performances out of some of their non-Matusz young starters like Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergesen and Chris Tilman and can get a reasonable number of starts out of Justin Duchscherer their pitching could surprise.

Why they might be worse than projected: Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee have seen their best days, but still project decently, so if they underperform a bit that could hurt. There’s a non-zero chance they get nothing out of Duchscherer and some of their young starters struggle.

Toronto Blue Jays
Average Projected Wins: 74
Division Title Percentage: 3.1%
Wild Card Percentage: 3.2%
Playoff Percentage: 6.3%

The Jays projections seem low to me, although I guess that’s largely a function of playing in a tough division.

Why they might be better than projected: Jose Bautista is probably a completely different player than he was in 2008 and the first five months of 2009, but the projections don’t know that. If he’s closer to 2010 Bautista than he’s projected to be that will make the offense better. The subpar performances of Adam Lind, Travis Snyder and Aaron Hill in 2010 may be hurting their projections as well. They’ve got some interesting young arms in the rotation who could also be better than expected.

Why they might be worse than projected: The offense doesn’t look great, particularly if Edwin Encarnacion is the primary DH and Juan Rivera is the primary LF. The defense may be a bit less than great with Jose Bautista at 3B and Adam Lind at 1B.

AL Central
Detroit Tigers
Average Projected Wins: 85
Division Title Percentage: 31.2%
Wild Card Percentage: 6.4%
Playoff Percentage: 37.7%

A busy offseason has vaulted Detroit to the top of the projected AL Central. They’ve probably got the best pitcher in their division in Justin Verlander and one of the top hitters in baseball with Miguel Cabrera.

Why they might be better than projected: The Tigers are heavily right-handed which is a benefit in Comerica park. Rick Porcello’s raw numbers looked worse in 2010 than they were in 2009, but his FIP was actually about 0.40 runs better, so he may pitch better than a projection that doesn’t account for that would think.

Why they might be worse than projected: There’s not a lot of depth here. An injury to one of their front-line players like Cabrera or Verlander or Victor Martinez would be tough to overcome. They have some good defenders but their overall defense doesn’t look all that great. They’re counting on Phil Coke making the transition to the rotation and that’s a risk in terms of both performance and innings.

Minnesota Twins
Average Projected Wins: 84
Division Title Percentage: 30.7%
Wild Card Percentage: 6.6%
Playoff Percentage: 37.3%

The Twins return essentially the same team that won the AL Central in 2010, minus J.J. Hardy but plus Joe Nathan.

Why they might be better than projected: Francisco Liriano had a very good year in 2010 and if you look at his peripherals it looks even better. However, his projections include a less than great 2009. If the reason for that 2009 was due to limitations as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery then his projections probably underrate him. Getting a full season out of Justin Morneau may also help, as I’ve assumed he’ll only play about 75% of the games due to his concussion issues.

Why they might be worse than projected: Their outfield defense isn’t very good, particularly Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer. While most projections try to account for defense when projecting pitching, they may not be penalzing the Twins enough. Morneau may miss a non-trivial amount of time, which would also obviously hurt. They’ve got Alexi Casilla penciled in as the starting SS, but he’s only played 233 innings there in his career so he may not be up for the task. They’re also counting on Tsuyohsi Nishioka at 2B, and it’s tough to know exactly how his game will translate from Japan.

Chicago White Sox
Average Projected Wins: 83
Division Title Percentage: 25.6%
Wild Card Percentage: 6.3%
Playoff Percentage: 31.9%

The White Sox added Adam Dunn, who should be a huge upgrade over what they got out of DH last year. They’ll also have a full season of Edwin Jackson.

Why they might be better than projected: The biggest reason I can think of is Edwin Jackson. He was a completely different pitcher for the White Sox that he’s been at any point in his career, although it was only 11 starts. His BB/9 was 2.16 compared to 3.86 career, and his K/9 rate jumped to 9.24 compared to 6.68. If that was due to Don Cooper’s coaching and not just a nice little run that was due more to luck than skill he could be a lot more valuable than expected. It’ll be interesting to see how Gordon Beckham does this year, as he fell off significantly from his 2009.

Why they might be worse than projected: The White Sox have generally been one of the healthiest teams in baseball, but Jake Peavy is a major injury risk based on his past history and the drop-off after him is pretty steep. They’ve got Brent Morel slated as the starting 3B. His defensive reputation is quite good, but his bat’s still an uncertain proposition.

Cleveland Indians
Average Projected Wins: 74
Division Title Percentage: 8.8%
Wild Card Percentage: 2.6%
Playoff Percentage: 11.4%

The Indians are probably the youngest team in baseball. They return most of a team that was pretty bad in 2010.

Why they might be better than projected: Grady Sizemore’s trying to make his way back from injury. Prior to that he was one of the best players in baseball and if he’s able to recapture most of that and play regularly it’ll help. Their rotation is young and that may help them pitch better than projected.

Why they might be worse than projected: Aside from Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana (and a healthy Sizemore), their position players aren’t particularly great. It’s tough to see them scoring a lot of runs as presently constituted, and their defense last year was pretty lousy. A repeat of that could make their run prevention worse than projected.

Kansas City Royals
Average Projected Wins: 68
Division Title Percentage: 3.7%
Wild Card Percentage: 1.2%
Playoff Percentage: 4.9%

With Zach Greinke now in Milwaukee, it’s looking like another painful year for the Royals in 2011, but their future looks a lot brighter.

Why they might be better than projected: The Royals might have the best farm system in baseball and some of those prospects may start contributing this year.

Why they might be worse than projected: The Royals are probably not even going to sniff contention, so it may make sense to make moves with the future in mind that could hurt them in the short-term. The package they got back for Greinke doesn’t look all that great, and right now it looks like they are going to have Jeff Francoeur hitting in the middle of the lineup, something that Braves and Mets fans probably get hives about.

AL West
Texas Rangers
Average Projected Wins: 88
Division Title Percentage: 45.7%
Wild Card Percentage: 31.3%
Playoff Percentage: 51.6%

2010’s AL Champions look like the class of the AL West.

Why they might be better than projected: I’ve seen it expressed in more than one place that the Rangers need to replace Cliff Lee and that losing him is going to hurt, but is losing 109 innings of 3.98 ERA that big of a deal?
The defensive upgrade from Michael Young to Adrian Beltre at 3B is huge on paper, but projections may understate it. Derek Holland has the stuff to be better than projected and that would slot in nicely behind C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis. I’ve restricted Brandon Webb to about 10 starts, so if he can make more than that and pitch as projected they’ll benefit.

Why they might be worse than projected: 2010 was Wilson’s first full season as a starter in the majors, so I suppose there’s some risk that he breaks down at some point. Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler have both shown problems with staying healthy at times and losing either of them for a significant amount of time (particularly Hamilton) would be a big blow. They may get nothing out of Webb.

Oakland Athletics
Average Projected Wins: 85
Division Title Percentage: 31.3%
Wild Card Percentage: 6.1%
Playoff Percentage: 37.4%

Despite scoring 37 runs more than they allowed, the A’s finshed 2010 at 81-81. The projections expect them to be less unlucky in 2011 and pick up those 3-4 missing wins.

Why they might be better than projected: They should be a pretty good defensive team, which may not be fully captured in their pitching projections.

Why they might be worse than projected: They’ve got some health concerns in their pitching staff, and their offense isn’t great. A lot of their pitchers had ERAs well below their FIPs/xFIPs and may regress more than projected, although some of that difference is probably due to park.

LA Angels
Average Projected Wins: 78
Division Title Percentage: 14.9%
Wild Card Percentage: 3.6%
Playoff Percentage: 18.5%

A bad offseason following their first losing season since 2003 has the Angels projected behind Texas and Oakland. However, they’ll have a full season of Dan Haren and the return of Kendrys Morales as upgrades.

Why they might be better than projected: An outfield of Vernon Wells in LF, Peter Bourjos in CF and Torii Hunter in RF could be the best defensive OF in baseball. That could be particularly beneficial to Jered Weaver who is a fly ball pitcher. At this point it looks like Scott Kazmir the budding ace has morphed into Scott Kazmir the replacement level pitcher, but he’s still young and might be able to recapture some of his former glory.

Why they might be worse than projected: Their catching situation stinks, and they don’t have much depth behind their starters. Fernando Rodney as closer seems like a good way to lose some close games late.

Seattle Mariners
Average Projected Wins: 74
Division Title Percentage: 8.1%
Wild Card Percentage: 2.2%
Playoff Percentage: 10.3%

Picked by many to be in contention in the AL West in 2010, the Mariners instead lost 101 games. They scored an abysmal 513 runs and actually over-performed their pythagorean W-L by four games. Of course, they weren’t really that bad, they just had a lot of things go wrong which means they should be better in 2011 just by dumb luck, although they still don’t look like a contender.

Why they might be better than projected: Erik Bedard looks healthy, but I’ve assumed he’ll only pitch about 15 games. If they can get a full season out of him they’ll be a bit better.

Why they might be worse than projected: Their offense still looks pretty lousy, and if they’ve decided they can’t contend they may try and flip some of their players for prospects.

For the NL edition, click here.

And there you have it, the 2011 Diamond Mind projection blowout. Results are not guaranteed.

--Posted at 6:59 am by SG / 55 Comments | - (0)

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Oliver Edition

Available from the THT Forecasts at The Hardball Times, Oliver is another projection system with Marcel at its heart, although it uses MLEs to try and better project minor leaguers and it also projects defense. They also run their own projected standings, which are available here. Like with PECOTA, these projected standings will differ from the official Oliver forecasts at THT, primarily due to differences in playing time estimates. Here’s how my version of Oliver projected standings look.

American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Red Sox	95.4	66.6	813	672	46.5%	18.3%	64.8%	85-105	784-841	646-697	6.4	-5	-72
Yankees	93.5	68.5	801	682	36.6%	19.1%	55.7%	83-103	773-829	656-708	-1.5	-58	-11
Rays	83.2	78.8	787	759	10.7%	10.6%	21.3%	73-93	759-815	732-787	-12.8	-15	110
Orioles	75.8	86.2	744	796	4.0%	4.9%	8.9%	66-86	717-772	768-825	9.8	131	11
Blue Jays	72.5	89.5	679	763	2.2%	2.6%	4.7%	63-83	653-705	736-791	-12.5	-76	35
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Twins	86.0	76.0	803	754	32.7%	8.2%	40.8%	76-96	775-832	727-781	-8.0	22	83
Tigers	85.9	76.1	723	676	33.0%	7.3%	40.2%	76-96	696-750	650-702	4.9	-28	-67
White Sox	82.9	79.1	725	724	24.5%	6.8%	31.3%	73-93	698-752	697-751	-5.1	-18	-21
Indians	74.3	87.7	746	808	7.2%	2.5%	9.7%	64-84	719-773	779-836	5.3	100	56
Royals	67.4	94.6	693	831	2.6%	1.0%	3.5%	57-77	667-719	802-860	0.4	17	-14
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	89.5	72.5	741	664	48.9%	6.0%	54.9%	80-100	714-769	638-690	-0.5	-46	-23
Athletics	84.9	77.1	713	668	28.5%	6.6%	35.1%	75-95	686-740	642-694	3.9	50	42
Mariners	76.9	85.1	683	728	11.4%	3.3%	14.7%	67-87	657-709	701-755	15.9	170	30
Angels	76.6	85.4	675	705	11.2%	3.0%	14.3%	67-87	649-701	679-732	-3.4	-6	3
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Phillies	90.4	71.6	729	646	36.3%	11.0%	47.4%	80-100	702-756	620-671	-6.6	-43	6
Braves	88.9	73.1	761	681	32.9%	11.0%	43.9%	79-99	734-789	655-707	-2.1	23	52
Marlins	82.3	79.7	722	705	14.5%	7.1%	21.6%	72-92	695-749	678-731	2.3	3	-12
Mets	81.8	80.2	750	748	13.0%	6.2%	19.2%	72-92	723-777	721-776	2.8	94	96
Nationals	71.3	90.7	688	778	3.3%	1.7%	5.0%	61-81	662-714	750-805	2.3	33	36
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Reds	90.2	71.8	721	642	45.5%	8.9%	54.4%	80-100	694-748	617-668	-0.8	-69	-43
Cardinals	83.1	78.9	764	744	22.0%	9.1%	31.1%	73-93	736-791	717-771	-2.9	28	103
Brewers	82.4	79.6	720	704	17.7%	7.2%	24.9%	72-92	693-746	678-731	5.4	-30	-100
Cubs	78.2	83.8	680	701	10.8%	4.9%	15.8%	68-88	654-707	675-728	3.2	-5	-66
Pirates	67.8	94.2	687	815	2.7%	1.3%	3.9%	58-78	661-714	786-843	10.8	100	-51
Astros	63.8	98.2	576	728	1.3%	0.6%	1.9%	54-74	552-600	701-755	-12.2	-35	-1
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Giants	91.2	70.8	704	617	45.2%	9.0%	54.2%	81-101	678-731	592-642	-0.8	7	34
Rockies	84.3	77.7	727	695	22.1%	8.4%	30.5%	74-94	700-754	668-721	1.3	-43	-22
Dodgers	84.2	77.8	689	660	22.9%	9.0%	31.9%	74-94	663-716	634-686	4.2	22	-32
Padres	73.5	88.5	688	765	5.6%	2.6%	8.1%	63-83	662-714	738-793	-16.5	23	184
Diamondbacks	72.0	90.0	650	726	4.2%	2.1%	6.3%	62-82	625-676	699-753	7.0	-63	-110

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

--Posted at 6:55 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - PECOTA Edition

Originally developed by Nate Silver, who’s moved on to bigger things, PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus has in the past been considered one the best projection systems. Since Silver left they have had a few issues, but it’s now in the hands of Colin Wyers who is one of the best baseball analysts around, so I’d expect it to be pretty good again. Baseball Prospectus runs their own projected standings, so these should NOT be considered what PECOTA is projecting. It’s more what PECOTA is projecting using my depth charts for all the other projections. The difference shouldn’t be more than 1-2 games in either direction for the most part.

Here’s how this version of the projected standings shape up.

American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Red Sox	94.1	67.9	809	681	41.1%	17.7%	58.8%	84-104	781-837	655-707	5.1	-9	-63
Yankees	92.1	69.9	835	730	31.0%	18.1%	49.0%	82-102	806-864	703-757	-2.9	-24	37
Rays	87.0	75.0	765	700	17.5%	15.0%	32.5%	77-97	737-792	674-727	-9.0	-37	51
Orioles	80.0	82.0	752	767	7.2%	7.7%	14.9%	70-90	725-780	740-795	14.0	139	-18
Blue Jays	75.4	86.6	690	742	3.2%	4.2%	7.4%	65-85	664-716	715-769	-9.6	-65	14
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Tigers	83.4	78.6	720	700	29.0%	6.0%	34.9%	73-93	693-747	673-726	2.4	-31	-43
Twins	83.2	78.8	764	748	26.3%	5.7%	32.0%	73-93	736-791	721-776	-10.8	-17	77
White Sox	83.1	78.9	746	745	27.9%	6.2%	34.1%	73-93	719-773	718-772	-4.9	3	0
Indians	76.4	85.6	734	769	12.3%	3.7%	15.9%	66-86	707-761	741-797	7.4	88	17
Royals	69.7	92.3	705	816	4.5%	1.3%	5.8%	60-80	678-732	787-844	2.7	29	-29
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	85.8	76.2	740	693	41.7%	4.8%	46.5%	76-96	713-767	666-719	-4.2	-47	6
Athletics	83.0	79.0	664	646	31.1%	4.9%	35.9%	73-93	638-689	620-671	2.0	1	20
Angels	78.5	83.5	636	651	18.4%	3.3%	21.7%	69-89	611-662	625-676	-1.5	-45	-51
Mariners	72.7	89.3	622	704	8.8%	1.6%	10.4%	63-83	597-647	677-730	11.7	109	6
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Phillies	91.0	71.0	731	638	42.4%	10.6%	53.0%	81-101	704-758	612-663	-6.0	-41	-2
Braves	87.0	75.0	716	658	29.5%	11.1%	40.6%	77-97	690-743	633-684	-4.0	-22	29
Marlins	81.2	80.8	692	684	14.8%	7.0%	21.8%	71-91	665-718	658-710	1.2	-27	-33
Mets	78.8	83.2	717	744	10.1%	5.3%	15.4%	69-89	690-744	717-771	-0.2	61	92
Nationals	70.0	92.0	661	760	3.1%	1.6%	4.7%	60-80	635-687	732-787	1.0	6	18
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Cardinals	84.2	77.8	738	707	30.0%	7.1%	37.1%	74-94	711-765	680-734	-1.8	2	66
Brewers	82.6	79.4	723	707	22.0%	6.5%	28.5%	73-93	696-750	680-734	5.6	-27	-97
Cubs	81.3	80.7	729	723	20.5%	5.6%	26.2%	71-91	702-756	696-750	6.3	44	-44
Reds	81.3	80.7	718	715	20.2%	6.2%	26.4%	71-91	692-745	688-742	-9.7	-72	30
Pirates	70.2	91.8	677	780	4.4%	1.7%	6.1%	60-80	651-703	752-807	13.2	90	-86
Astros	67.0	95.0	569	692	2.9%	1.0%	3.9%	57-77	545-593	666-719	-9.0	-42	-37
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Giants	89.5	72.5	692	620	38.4%	10.3%	48.8%	80-100	666-719	595-645	-2.5	-5	37
Dodgers	84.9	77.1	670	642	25.0%	8.8%	33.8%	75-95	644-696	617-667	4.9	3	-50
Rockies	82.4	79.6	792	774	17.5%	7.9%	25.5%	72-92	764-820	746-801	-0.6	22	57
Padres	79.9	82.1	649	671	12.6%	6.1%	18.7%	70-90	624-675	645-697	-10.1	-16	90
Diamondbacks	74.5	87.5	665	717	6.4%	3.2%	9.6%	65-85	639-691	690-744	9.5	-48	-119

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

--Posted at 6:50 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Marcel Edition

Marcel was developed by Tangotiger of The Book fame.

As an aside, Tango is running a community playing time forecast if you want to help him out.

Back to Marcel, although it’s considered the most basic projection system, it is generally as good as any other system since added complexity really hasn’t shown to add all that much accuracy over Marcel, and the principles behind it are solid and should be the basis for any good forecasting system. Here’s how it sees things looking in 2011.

American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Red Sox	91.6	70.4	841	734	40.0%	14.4%	54.4%	82-102	812-870	707-762	2.6	23	-10
Yankees	89.0	73.0	785	711	28.5%	14.1%	42.5%	79-99	757-813	685-738	-6.0	-74	18
Rays	85.3	76.7	747	699	19.2%	11.5%	30.7%	75-95	720-775	673-726	-10.7	-55	50
Orioles	78.8	83.2	754	780	8.7%	6.2%	14.9%	69-89	726-781	752-808	12.8	141	-5
Blue Jays	72.4	89.6	691	768	3.7%	2.6%	6.3%	62-82	665-717	740-796	-12.6	-64	40
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Twins	85.7	76.3	757	709	34.3%	7.2%	41.5%	76-96	729-784	682-736	-8.3	-24	38
White Sox	83.5	78.5	714	701	26.3%	7.2%	33.5%	73-93	687-740	674-727	-4.5	-29	-44
Tigers	83.3	78.7	717	696	26.3%	7.6%	33.9%	73-93	690-744	669-722	2.3	-34	-47
Indians	75.1	86.9	693	747	9.8%	3.0%	12.9%	65-85	667-720	720-775	6.1	47	-5
Royals	68.4	93.6	659	783	3.3%	1.2%	4.5%	58-78	633-685	755-811	1.4	-17	-62
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	88.7	73.3	781	710	42.9%	8.2%	51.2%	79-99	753-809	684-737	-1.3	-6	23
Athletics	85.6	76.4	679	644	30.2%	7.8%	38.0%	76-96	653-705	618-669	4.6	16	18
Angels	79.9	82.1	697	703	16.0%	5.6%	21.6%	70-90	670-723	676-729	-0.1	16	1
Mariners	76.7	85.3	634	673	10.8%	3.5%	14.3%	67-87	609-659	647-699	15.7	121	-25
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Phillies	87.7	74.3	715	654	34.9%	9.4%	44.3%	78-98	689-742	628-679	-9.3	-57	14
Braves	85.2	76.9	695	654	27.3%	9.0%	36.3%	75-95	668-721	628-679	-5.8	-43	25
Marlins	81.6	80.4	694	685	17.2%	7.0%	24.2%	72-92	667-720	659-711	1.6	-25	-32
Mets	79.9	82.1	670	679	13.9%	5.6%	19.5%	70-90	644-696	653-705	0.9	14	27
Nationals	73.8	88.2	655	719	6.7%	3.1%	9.8%	64-84	629-680	692-746	4.8	0	-23
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Reds	83.7	78.3	740	712	27.6%	8.0%	35.6%	74-94	713-767	686-739	-7.3	-50	27
Cardinals	82.3	79.7	732	724	24.5%	7.5%	32.0%	72-92	705-759	698-751	-3.7	-4	83
Cubs	80.5	81.5	718	721	18.7%	6.3%	25.0%	71-91	691-744	694-747	5.5	33	-46
Brewers	79.3	82.7	710	728	15.1%	5.3%	20.4%	69-89	683-736	701-755	2.3	-40	-76
Pirates	74.5	87.5	679	736	10.0%	3.3%	13.4%	64-84	653-705	709-763	17.5	92	-130
Astros	69.6	92.4	609	715	4.1%	1.6%	5.8%	60-80	585-634	688-742	-6.4	-2	-14
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Dodgers	85.3	76.7	657	624	28.4%	8.8%	37.2%	75-95	631-682	599-649	5.3	-10	-68
Giants	84.3	77.7	647	620	24.8%	7.9%	32.7%	74-94	622-673	595-645	-7.7	-50	37
Rockies	83.3	78.7	764	741	23.5%	7.3%	30.7%	73-93	736-792	713-768	0.3	-6	24
Padres	79.8	82.2	616	633	14.6%	6.4%	21.0%	70-90	592-641	608-658	-10.2	-49	52
Diamondbacks	75.4	86.6	686	732	8.8%	3.5%	12.3%	65-85	660-712	705-759	10.4	-27	-104

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

--Posted at 6:46 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CAIRO Edition

CAIRO is my own in-house projection system, which is based on Marcel with the following changes.

1) I use the prior four years of data, whereas Marcel uses only the prior three years.
2) I make adjustments for park, which Marcel does not do.
3) I use major league equivalencies for players who’ve played in the minors, which Marcel does not do.
4) I account for the defense behind a pitcher in their prior seasons as well as in projecting them for the next season, which Marcel does not do.
5) Marcel regresses everyone towards league average, I also regress towards different additional means based on player age and primary position.

You can download the latest version of the 2011 CAIRO projections at this link.

Here’s how CAIRO projects the 2011 MLB standings.

American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Red Sox	95.8	66.2	826	684	42.8%	18.7%	61.5%	86-106	798-855	658-710	6.8	8	-60
Yankees	93.1	68.9	821	713	31.7%	19.4%	51.1%	83-103	792-849	686-739	-1.9	-38	20
Rays	87.6	74.4	734	660	17.8%	14.9%	32.7%	78-98	707-761	634-686	-8.4	-68	11
Orioles	77.2	84.8	746	790	4.3%	5.3%	9.5%	67-87	718-773	762-818	11.2	133	5
Blue Jays	75.8	86.2	689	737	3.5%	3.9%	7.4%	66-86	663-716	710-764	-9.2	-66	9
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Tigers	84.3	77.7	713	696	34.4%	5.7%	40.1%	74-94	686-739	670-723	3.3	-38	-47
White Sox	83.1	78.9	718	712	30.7%	5.5%	36.3%	73-93	691-745	686-739	-4.9	-25	-33
Twins	81.7	80.3	747	732	25.2%	5.3%	30.5%	72-92	720-775	705-759	-12.3	-34	61
Indians	71.4	90.6	707	788	6.4%	1.7%	8.1%	61-81	681-734	760-817	2.4	61	36
Royals	66.6	95.4	661	803	3.3%	0.7%	4.0%	57-77	636-687	774-831	-0.4	-15	-42
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	89.3	72.7	730	652	48.1%	6.7%	54.9%	79-99	703-757	626-677	-0.7	-57	-35
Athletics	85.5	76.5	669	626	32.1%	6.3%	38.4%	76-96	643-695	601-651	4.5	6	0
Angels	77.7	84.3	659	686	14.1%	3.9%	18.0%	68-88	633-685	659-712	-2.3	-22	-16
Mariners	72.1	89.9	619	703	5.6%	1.9%	7.6%	62-82	594-644	676-729	11.1	106	5
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Phillies	92.8	69.2	742	630	45.0%	10.6%	55.6%	83-103	714-769	605-655	-4.2	-30	-10
Braves	86.6	75.4	736	674	25.6%	10.7%	36.3%	77-97	709-763	648-700	-4.4	-2	45
Marlins	82.8	79.2	677	655	15.3%	7.7%	22.9%	73-93	651-703	630-681	2.8	-42	-62
Mets	79.0	83.0	662	681	8.9%	5.1%	14.0%	69-89	637-688	655-707	0.0	6	29
Nationals	74.1	87.9	653	714	5.2%	2.8%	8.0%	64-84	627-679	687-740	5.1	-2	-28
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Reds	86.9	75.1	749	697	31.1%	10.2%	41.3%	77-97	721-776	670-723	-4.1	-41	12
Brewers	86.0	76.0	754	702	26.3%	9.0%	35.3%	76-96	727-782	675-728	9.0	4	-102
Cardinals	85.3	76.7	748	712	28.4%	9.1%	37.5%	75-95	721-775	685-738	-0.7	12	71
Cubs	78.4	83.6	733	755	10.7%	5.2%	15.9%	68-88	706-760	728-783	3.4	48	-12
Pirates	66.7	95.3	673	805	2.1%	1.1%	3.2%	57-77	647-699	777-834	9.7	86	-61
Astros	65.3	96.7	598	749	1.4%	0.9%	2.3%	55-75	573-622	721-776	-10.7	-13	20
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Giants	87.2	74.9	704	652	35.7%	7.2%	42.9%	77-97	678-731	627-678	-4.8	7	69
Rockies	83.1	78.9	769	749	22.3%	6.6%	29.0%	73-93	742-797	721-776	0.1	-1	32
Padres	81.1	80.9	651	652	18.4%	5.8%	24.2%	71-91	626-677	626-677	-8.9	-14	71
Dodgers	80.9	81.1	676	679	17.8%	6.0%	23.8%	71-91	650-702	653-705	0.9	9	-13
Diamondbacks	72.4	89.6	695	773	5.8%	2.0%	7.8%	62-82	669-721	745-801	7.4	-18	-63

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

--Posted at 6:35 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)

Friday, March 25, 2011

LA Times: Yankees trade pitcher Mitre for outfielder [Chris] Dickerson

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The New York Yankees have traded pitcher Sergio Mitre to the Milwaukee Brewers for outfielder Chris Dickerson, the Yankees said Thursday.

The Yankees have also signed pitcher Kevin Millwood to a minor league contract, adding the veteran right-hander to the mix of candidates for the back end of their rotation, Major League Baseball’s website (www.mlb.com) reported.

Getting a warm body for Mitre is a good deal, since right now it looks like the best way for the Yankees to start the season is with some combination of Ivan Nova, Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia as the fourth and fifth starters, with the loser going to the pen. I think you’ll see Nova as the #4 and Colon as the #5, with Garcia as the long man waiting in the wings as the potential #6 starter.

Here is how CAIRO projects Dickerson as a Yankee.

projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR	BABIP
bill_james	294	258	39	70	12	3	7	27	16	5	36	.271	.361	.422	.348	40	89	5	11	.360
fans																				######
cairo	223	194	26	50	10	2	4	18	7	2	23	.259	.337	.392	.323	26	77	0	5	.329
marcel	283	248	32	64	12	3	5	22	9	2	29	.258	.336	.391	.323	34	77	0	6	.326
oliver	382	328	47	80	14	4	7	34	12	5	44	.244	.330	.375	.314	42	72	-3	5	.340
pecota	450	386	53	96	18	3	10	45	20	6	54	.249	.340	.389	.325	54	78	1	10	.326
zips	326	282	40	67	12	4	7	26	16	6	36	.238	.322	.383	.312	37	74	-2	5	.321
average*	333	288	40	71	13	3	7	29	13	4	37	.248	.333	.385	.319	39	76	-1	6	.329
2010	161	140	23	39	7	2	3	12	10	1	15	.279	.335	.421	.328	21	87	2	6	.375

That 2010 line includes his time in AAA, he’s not really that good. He’s a left-handed hitter with good speed who appears to be a good defensive player as well. In a very small sample size he’s shown a plus glove in CF.

Player	Dickerson, Chris
Pos	CF
year	G	Inn	DRS	zRS	uRS	tRS	avg	rARM
2006	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2007	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2008	7	45	1	0	1	1	1	0
2009	27	170	3	4	7	5	5	1
2010	20	133	1	2	2	3	2	0
avg	11	70	1	1	2	2	1	0
w_avg	15	99	1	2	3	2	2	0

He’s 28, which means he’s probably not going to get much better than he is right now, but he still has an option year remaining so he’s not a bad guy to have stashed at AAA in case of emergency.

So thumbs up from me.

--Posted at 12:25 pm by SG / 40 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Looking Ahead To 2011 - Phil Hughes

It took a few years, but Phil Hughes finally completed a full season as a starter at the MLB level in 2010. Hughes got off to a very good start before fading over the final two-thirds of a season.

dates	gs	ip	h	r	er	hr	bb	so	fb%	gb%	ld%	hr/fb%	babip	ra	era	fip	xfip	bb/bf	k/bf
4/15-5/12	6	38	22	6	6	1	14	39	43.6%	37.2%	19.1%	2.4%	.226	1.41	1.41	2.60	3.79	9.5%	26.4%
5/17-6/19	7	42	46	23	23	6	11	39	46.6%	32.3%	21.1%	9.7%	.315	4.88	4.88	3.98	4.23	6.0%	21.3%
6/29-10/2	16	92	94	54	53	18	33	68	49.0%	37.5%	13.5%	12.4%	.273	5.29	5.19	5.34	5.05	8.3%	17.0%
total	29	173	162	83	82	25	58	146	47.4%	36.1%	16.4%	10.1%	.275	4.33	4.28	4.40	4.57	7.9%	20.0%

fb%: percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
gb%: percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
ld%: percentage of batted balls that were line drives
hr/fb%: percentage of fly balls that were home runs
babip: batting average against on balls in play
fip: fielding independent pitching
xfip: expected fielding independent pitching (replace HRs with 0.11 times fly balls)
bb/bf: percentage of batters walked
k/bf: percentage of batters who struck out

Hughes’s peripherals over his first six starts didn’t support his 1.41 RA/ERA, primarily because of an unsustainably low HR/FB rate and BABIP against of .226. The correction in those two stats came over his next seven starts, which put his season line at:

dates	gs	ip	h	r	er	hr	bb	so	fb%	gb%	ld%	hr/fb%	babip	ra	era	fip	xfip	bb/bf	k/bf
4/15-5/12	6	38	22	6	6	1	14	39	43.6%	37.2%	19.1%	2.4%	.226	1.41	1.41	2.60	3.79	9.5%	26.4%
5/17-6/19	7	42	46	23	23	6	11	39	46.6%	32.3%	21.1%	9.7%	.315	4.88	4.88	3.98	4.23	6.0%	21.3%
total	13	81	68	29	29	7	25	78	45.4%	34.4%	20.3%	6.8%	.277	3.23	3.23	3.32	4.02	7.6%	23.6%

That’s a very good overall line, with his peripherals and his results lining up pretty well, although his HR/FB rate was still probably still a bit lower than it should have been.

From that point on Hughes didn’t pitch all that well. The Yankees skipped his turn in the rotation after his June 19th start, and his next start came 10 days later. Here’s how he performed over the rest of the season.

dates	gs	ip	h	r	er	hr	bb	so	fb%	gb%	ld%	hr/fb%	babip	ra	era	fip	xfip	bb/bf	k/bf
6/29-10/2	16	92	94	54	53	18	33	68	49.0%	37.5%	13.5%	12.4%	.273	5.29	5.19	5.34	5.05	8.3%	17.0%

Because Hughes allowed a higher percentage of fly balls and a lower percentage of line drives over this stretch, I don’t think that his BABIP against of .273 was particularly lucky. His biggest issue was his inability to put hitters away, as evidenced by his strikeout rate dropping. In addition to that, a higher percentage of fly balls became HRs, which didn’t help things.

Anyone who watched Hughes in 2010 didn’t need numbers to tell them that he had problems with finishing off a hitter once he got to two strikes. As a reliever in 2009, he didn’t have that issue because he was able to dial up a bit more velocity when needed and he was able to get by with primarily two pitches (fastball and cutter). You can see the difference between 2009 and 2010 pretty clearly if you look at some of his splits by count.

split	year	pa	bb/pa	k/pa	year	pa	bb/pa	k/pa
0-2 Count	2009	38	0.0%	55.3%	2010	65	0.0%	53.8%
1-2 Count	2009	56	0.0%	50.0%	2010	125	0.0%	38.4%
2-2 Count	2009	62	0.0%	40.3%	2010	120	0.0%	37.5%
Full Count	2009	54	25.9%	40.7%	2010	107	37.4%	16.8%
After 1-0	2009	133	15.8%	24.8%	2010	271	12.5%	17.0%
After 2-0	2009	42	21.4%	28.6%	2010	80	31.3%	15.0%
After 3-0	2009	10	50.0%	30.0%	2010	25	60.0%	12.0%
After 0-1	2009	179	3.9%	35.2%	2010	387	6.2%	25.8%
After 1-1	2009	149	12.8%	30.2%	2010	296	9.5%	21.3%
After 2-1	2009	77	24.7%	29.9%	2010	148	16.9%	16.2%
After 3-1	2009	33	45.5%	18.2%	2010	50	40.0%	12.0%
After 0-2	2009	82	0.0%	47.6%	2010	172	2.9%	41.3%
After 1-2	2009	116	3.4%	42.2%	2010	247	7.3%	34.0%
After 2-2	2009	101	10.9%	40.6%	2010	199	14.6%	28.6%
Three Balls	2009	74	37.8%	29.7%	2010	138	42.0%	13.0%
Two Strikes	2009	210	6.7%	45.7%	2010	417	9.6%	35.0%
Batter Ahead	2009	110	25.5%	20.0%	2010	225	25.8%	8.0%
Even Count	2009	127	0.0%	19.7%	2010	248	0.0%	18.1%
Pitcher Ahead	2009	114	0.0%	43.0%	2010	257	0.0%	32.3%

The split that really jumps out at me are the splits after he got to a full count. He struck out 40.7% of the batters he faced with a full count in 2009 and that dropped all the way down to 16.8%. His overall performance when he got two strikes was also worse, as he walked about 3% more batters and struck out about 11% fewer in any count where he got to two strikes.

I got the sense that early in the season Hughes was pretty much still pitching the way he did as a reliever in 2009, using mostly fastballs and cutters and challenging hitters. I also got the sense that after a while the league adjusted to that, and that’s when he started to struggle. Luckily, we don’t have to go by my sense(s), we have the data to see what exactly Hughes was doing.

date	ip	h	r	hr	bb	k	FF	%	FC	%	CH	%	CU	%	FF+FC%
4/15/2010	5.0	3	2	1	5	6	50	49.5%	31	30.7%	5	5.0%	15	14.9%	80.2%
4/21/2010	7.3	1	1	0	2	10	53	53.5%	32	32.3%	0	0.0%	14	14.1%	85.9%
4/27/2010	5.7	2	1	0	4	2	66	60.6%	28	25.7%	0	0.0%	15	13.8%	86.2%
5/2/2010	7.0	4	0	0	1	6	41	53.2%	22	28.6%	3	3.9%	11	14.3%	81.8%
5/7/2010	7.0	7	2	0	1	7	60	60.6%	29	29.3%	1	1.0%	9	9.1%	89.9%
5/12/2010	7.0	5	0	0	1	8	62	61.4%	28	27.7%	0	0.0%	11	10.9%	89.1%
5/17/2010	5.0	6	5	2	1	3	36	43.4%	30	36.1%	3	3.6%	14	16.9%	79.5%
5/22/2010	5.7	8	4	0	3	7	65	63.7%	27	26.5%	1	1.0%	9	8.8%	90.2%
5/28/2010	7.0	5	2	1	1	8	57	54.8%	24	23.1%	2	1.9%	21	20.2%	77.9%
6/2/2010	7.0	6	1	0	1	7	68	71.6%	8	8.4%	2	2.1%	17	17.9%	80.0%
6/8/2010	6.0	9	3	0	0	4	65	65.0%	21	21.0%	1	1.0%	13	13.0%	86.0%
6/13/2010	5.7	7	5	1	2	6	61	60.4%	22	21.8%	0	0.0%	18	17.8%	82.2%
6/19/2010	7.0	5	3	2	3	4	71	73.2%	9	9.3%	2	2.1%	15	15.5%	82.5%
6/29/2010	5.7	10	7	1	2	3	52	65.0%	13	16.3%	2	2.5%	13	16.3%	81.3%
7/4/2010	6.0	6	5	3	2	5	61	61.6%	18	18.2%	0	0.0%	20	20.2%	79.8%
7/9/2010	7.0	6	1	0	0	5	59	64.1%	16	17.4%	0	0.0%	17	18.5%	81.5%
7/20/2010	5.0	9	6	2	3	2	56	60.9%	10	10.9%	11	12.0%	15	16.3%	71.7%
7/25/2010	5.3	6	3	2	0	3	56	62.2%	10	11.1%	4	4.4%	20	22.2%	73.3%
7/30/2010	6.0	4	3	1	2	6	35	33.7%	39	37.5%	0	0.0%	30	28.8%	71.2%
8/4/2010	5.3	4	1	0	2	5	63	63.6%	16	16.2%	3	3.0%	17	17.2%	79.8%
8/9/2010	6.0	6	2	0	1	3	68	64.8%	10	9.5%	2	1.9%	25	23.8%	74.3%
8/14/2010	6.0	9	3	1	1	0	66	69.5%	16	16.8%	0	0.0%	13	13.7%	86.3%
8/19/2010	6.0	4	2	1	0	6	57	75.0%	9	11.8%	0	0.0%	10	13.2%	86.8%
8/31/2010	5.0	4	2	0	5	1	68	71.6%	7	7.4%	4	4.2%	16	16.8%	78.9%
9/5/2010	6.0	7	6	3	1	5	63	67.0%	6	6.4%	4	4.3%	21	22.3%	73.4%
9/10/2010	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10	90.9%	0	0.0%	0	0.0%	1	9.1%	90.9%
9/15/2010	6.7	6	4	2	0	5	41	38.7%	31	29.2%	4	3.8%	30	28.3%	67.9%
9/21/2010	6.3	4	3	1	5	6	65	58.0%	10	8.9%	15	13.4%	22	19.6%	67.0%
9/26/2010	6.0	3	1	0	4	4	64	61.0%	13	12.4%	9	8.6%	19	18.1%	73.3%
10/2/2010	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11	84.6%	1	7.7%	0	0.0%	1	7.7%	92.3%
10/9/2010	7.0	4	0	0	1	6	72	72.7%	7	7.1%	2	2.0%	18	18.2%	79.8%
10/16/2010	4.0	10	7	1	3	3	44	52.4%	24	28.6%	1	1.2%	15	17.9%	81.0%
10/22/2010	4.7	4	4	0	4	3	39	52.0%	15	20.0%	2	2.7%	19	25.3%	72.0%

FF: # of four-seam fastballs
FC: # of cut fastballs
CH: # of change ups
CU: # of curves

There’s some ambiguity in the the Pitch F/X pitch classification algorithm, so these are are not concrete.

Hughes was definitely pitching primarily with his fastball and cutter over the first half of the season, although it was working so there really wasn’t any reason for him not to. In his first three starts after the All Star Break he used a few more curves, but with mixed results. In August he seemed to try and move away from his cutter a bit, and aside from September 15 he did seem to try and make more use of his curve and changeup, although it didn’t seem to help him pitch any better.

I’m not sure that Hughes’s struggles over the last part of the season were due to pitch selection after looking at this chart. There’s not a clear delineation of a change in approach here, at least that I can see.

Despite all these somewhat depressing numbers, overall I thought 2010 was a good year for Hughes, primarily because he was able to demonstrate the ability to stay healthy and in the rotation for a full MLB season. Now that he’s done that, there should be no more concern about innings limits going forward.

So here’s how Hughes projects in 2011.

projecton	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR	BABIP
bill_james	32	177	160	72	70	20	60	166	3.68	3.56	3.88	45	4.5	.287
fans	31	185	171	84	81	22	58	161	4.07	3.94	3.95	39	3.9	.284
cairo	41	172	161	84	81	21	58	147	4.40	4.24	4.16	30	3.0	.285
marcel	39	141	126	63	61	17	46	123	4.02	3.89	4.07	31	3.1	.276
oliver	37	134	127	63	61	17	45	121	4.23	4.10	4.05	26	2.6	.291
pecota	34	121	112	55	50	16	43	109	4.06	3.74	4.28	26	2.6	.284
zips	26	148	145	72	67	18	46	131	4.39	4.08	3.99	26	2.6	.300
average*	35	143	134	67	64	18	48	126	4.23	4.03	4.12	28	2.8	.287
2010	31	176	162	83	82	25	58	146	4.24	4.19	4.42	34	3.4	.273

The projections assume Hughes will be at least as good as he was in 2010, aside from CAIRO which is biased against the Yankees. His average 2011 projected RA is essentially the same as his actual 2010 RA, so he should be as valuable as he was last year on a rate basis, plus additionally more valuable if he can pitch more innings.

Here are Hughes’s CAIRO percentile forecasts.

cairo%	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	48	189	151	76	73	17	51	162	3.64	3.50	3.48	49	4.9
65%	45	180	156	80	77	19	55	155	4.00	3.86	3.81	39	3.9
Baseline	41	172	161	84	81	21	58	147	4.40	4.24	4.16	30	3.0
35%	34	149	151	80	77	21	56	127	4.82	4.65	4.54	19	1.9
20%	28	127	139	75	72	20	52	108	5.28	5.10	4.95	10	1.0

Ignore the # of games since it’s still screwed up by his relief stint in 2009, and just focus on the other stats.

I’d really like to see Hughes at least hit that 65% forecast, and I think he can if he makes better use of his secondary pitches.

There’s a very good chance that Hughes is the Yankees’ second-best starting pitcher right now. If he’s at his 65% or higher forecast and can pitch 200 innings he’d probably be one of the top twenty pitchers in the AL. You can’t ask for much more than that out of your #2 starter. Unless your #2 starter is one of 16 aces.

--Posted at 2:59 pm by SG / 32 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Looking Ahead To 2011 - A.J. Burnett

Year 2 of A.J. Burnett’s Yankee tenure was an unmitigated disaster. He started off well, winning his first four decisions and putting up an ERA of 1.99 over his first six starts.

dates	gs	ip	h	r	er	hr	bb	so	fb%	gb%	ld%	hr/fb%	babip	ra	era	fip	xfip	bb/bf	k/bf
4/6-5/4	6	40.2	36	11	9	1	11	28	31.9%	48.7%	19.3%	2.6%	.297	2.46	2.01	2.95	3.98	6.7%	17.1%

A large part of Burnett’s early season success was due to a very low HR/FB rate of 2.6%. In his career he’s been around 10.5%, so that was almost certain to go up as the season progressed. His batted ball type distribution was essentially around his career norms, and his BABIP against of .297 was right around his career average of .289.

Burnett got torched over his next 10 starts.

dates	gs	ip	h	r	er	hr	bb	so	fb%	gb%	ld%	hr/fb%	babip	ra	era	fip	xfip	bb/bf	k/bf
5/9-6/26	10	51.8	68	50	46	12	30	44	37.7%	45.1%	17.1%	18.2%	.344	8.69	7.99	6.25	5.06	11.5%	16.9%

His K rate was about the same, but his walk rate went up by about 70%. His HR/FB rate shot through the roof as did his BABIP against.

Over his next nine starts, Burnett pitched adequately enough.

dates	gs	ip	h	r	er	hr	bb	so	fb%	gb%	ld%	hr/fb%	babip	ra	era	fip	xfip	bb/bf	k/bf
7/2-8/20	9	52.5	54	24	24	6	19	38	41.5%	43.3%	15.2%	8.8%	.304	4.11	4.00	4.32	4.69	8.4%	16.7%

Over his last eight starts he again had bad results, although his peripherals weren’t too bad.

dates	gs	ip	h	r	er	hr	bb	so	fb%	gb%	ld%	hr/fb%	babip	ra	era	fip	xfip	bb/bf	k/bf
8/27-10/2	8	38.2	46	33	30	6	18	35	37.1%	43.1%	19.8%	14.0%	.364	7.77	7.07	4.82	4.39	10.2%	19.8%

Burnett’s final line was an ugly one, although I thought his lone playoff start was a decent one that was extended for one batter too long.

In 2009, Burnett was worth somewhere in the area of three wins above a replacement level pitcher. In 2010, he was barely above replacement level and even below it by Baseball Reference’s version of WAR.

I’m not going to speculate on any of the personal reasons that may have contributed to Burnett’s struggles, although it’s not much of a secret that he was going through a difficult family time. I just know he walked more batters, struck out fewer batters, allowed a higher rate of HRs and hits and was throwing about 1 mph LESS on average with his fastball.

I don’t know if there’s any player whose projections are of less utility than A.J. Burnett, but here they are.

projecton	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
bill_james	33	191	182	92	85	21	77	177	4.33	4.01	4.17	35	3.5
fans
cairo	31	187	189	105	97	23	74	156	5.05	4.67	4.51	19	1.9
marcel	29	174	175	93	86	20	72	148	4.81	4.45	4.42	22	2.2
oliver	33	198	208	126	116	27	84	170	5.71	5.28	4.53	6	0.6
pecota	30	187	185	103	95	25	78	168	4.95	4.56	4.60	21	2.1
zips	30	182	184	97	91	22	74	159	4.80	4.50	4.47	24	2.4
average*	31	186	188	105	97	23	76	160	5.08	4.70	4.55	18	1.8
2010	33	187	204	118	109	25	78	145	5.69	5.26	4.82	6	0.6

Aside from Oliver, the projections expect a better Burnett in 2011, somewhere in the area of around two wins better than replacement level.

Here are his CAIRO percentile forecasts.

cairo%	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	34	205	179	97	89	19	67	172	4.25	3.91	3.81	39	3.9
65%	34	196	184	101	93	21	70	164	4.64	4.28	4.15	29	2.9
Baseline	31	187	189	105	97	23	74	156	5.05	4.67	4.51	19	1.9
35%	25	162	176	99	92	23	70	135	5.50	5.09	4.90	8	0.8
20%	20	139	162	92	85	22	66	115	5.98	5.55	5.33	0	0.0

I really wouldn’t be surprised to see any of those lines from Burnett.

He’s thrown well so far in spring training, although I’m not sure that tells us much.

	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K
2010 Spring	19.1	22	11	11	13	10
2011 Spring	13	9	6	4	0	11

Burnett had a lousy spring in 2010, but it didn’t seem to be indicative of anything after his first six starts. I do like the fact that he hasn’t walked a batter, but again, I don’t know how predictive it is.

I think Burnett will have a decent year, because until last year he’s always been a pretty good (if inconsistent) pitcher. I am heartened by the way he’s thrown this spring, and hope that Larry Rothchild gets him back to where he was in 2009. If he can do that, a lot of the concern about the Yankees’ rotation will dissipate.

--Posted at 3:53 pm by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Looking Ahead To 2011 - CC Sabathia

Since the Yankee bench is still somewhat up in the air, I’m going to wait on doing the bench and position player wrap up and just start the pitching projections.

Year two of the biggest contract ever signed by a pitcher went even better than year one, as CC Sabathia followed up a very good 2009 with an even better 2010, at least in terms of RA and ERA. Sabathia’s peripherals weren’t quite as good as in 2010 as they were in 2009, although the difference wasn’t huge(3.39 FIP vs. 3.54 FIP).

Year	BF	BB+HBP	K	BB/BF	K/BF
2001	763	101	171	13.2%	22.4%
2002	891	87	149	9.8%	16.7%
2003	832	69	141	8.3%	16.9%
2004	787	76	139	9.7%	17.7%
2005	823	68	161	8.3%	19.6%
2006	802	48	172	6.0%	21.4%
2007	975	44	209	4.5%	21.4%
2008	1023	65	251	6.4%	24.5%
2009	938	69	197	7.4%	21.0%
2010	970	75	197	7.7%	20.3%

His walk/HBP rate crept up a hair and his K rate dropped by a hair but not to any degree that should be of a concern.

Unlike 2009, Sabathia didn’t pitch all that well in the postseason although he did start the only two ALCS games that the Yankees won, so that wasn’t the reason the Yankees got ousted by Texas.

After the season ended, Sabathia had knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus, but he appears to be healthy and on track to pitch on Opening Day.

Here’s how the projections see CC pitching in 2011.

projecton	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
bill_james	34	236	215	95	87	19	65	202	3.64	3.32	3.46	61	6.1
fans	33	226	205	93	85	20	67	190	3.71	3.38	3.56	57	5.7
cairo	32	219	198	95	86	20	60	176	3.90	3.53	3.70	50	5.0
marcel	29	202	178	80	73	17	60	170	3.56	3.25	3.61	54	5.4
oliver	34	235	216	104	94	22	67	205	3.96	3.62	3.53	52	5.2
pecota	33	233	212	92	84	23	64	199	3.55	3.26	3.72	63	6.3
zips	33	230	206	91	85	20	64	210	3.56	3.32	3.45	62	6.2
average*	32	224	202	92	85	20	63	192	3.71	3.40	3.62	56	5.6
2010	34	238	209	92	84	20	74	197	3.48	3.18	3.66	66	6.6

The projections expect a slightly worse CC in 2011, although any pitcher who projects to be 5 or more wins above replacement level is a top-flight starter and a likely contender for the Cy Young.

It’s pretty likely that if he has another strong year, Sabathia will exercise his opt-out clause in his contract and become a free agent after the season. He’ll be two years younger than Cliff “Big Train” Lee, and will be coming off a three year run of somewhere in the area of 700 innings of 3.32 ERA. That’s comparable to Lee’s past three seasons of 667 innings of 2.98 ERA, particularly if you account for the more difficult run environment Sabathia’s faced.

If Sabathia’s about a 5.6 WAR pitcher now and follows a typical aging pattern, he’ll probably lose somewhere between 0.5 - 0.7 wins a year from 2012 on. That means he’d project to be worth around 16.4 wins from 2012 through 2015. Assuming a marginal win value of $5M for the Yankees, here’s how his current contract would look.

Year	Salary	est WAR	est Value
2012	$23,000,000	5.0	$25,000,000
2013	$23,000,000	4.4	$22,000,000
2014	$23,000,000	3.8	$19,000,000
2015	$23,000,000	3.2	$16,000,000
Total	$92,000,000	16.4	$82,000,000

Of course, we don’t know if Sabathia’s going to age in the standard way. If I had to guess, I’d say he’ll be able to hold onto more of his value going forward. But if that’s not true and he does opt out, it may actually get the Yankees off the hook from paying Sabathia more than he might be worth. Logically, the best case scenario for 2011 sees Sabathia opting out, because it will mean that he almost certainly had a very good season.

If Sabathia did opt out and the Yankees decided to let him go, there aren’t many potential 2012 free agent pitchers that I’d take over Sabathia. The best of the bunch is probably Mark Buehrle, who’ll be 33, but he’s no Sabathia. There are a few other pitchers who have options that might be interesting like Chris Carpenter, Roy Oswalt and Adam Wainwright, but they have age and/or injury issues.

Anyway, I don’t see the sense in worrying about whether or not Sabathia will opt out. If the Yankees want to keep him, they’ll keep him.

--Posted at 1:03 pm by SG / 27 Comments | - (0)

Monday, March 14, 2011

Looking Ahead To 2011 - Derek Jeter

Coming off one of the best seasons of his career and in the final year of his contract, Derek Jeter had the worst season of his career, dropping from a line of .334/.406/.465 in 2009 to a line of .270/.340/.370. It was obviously not realistic to expect a repeat of 2009 in 2010, as you can see by looking at Jeter’s projections heading into 2010.

Jeter’s average projection called for a line of .304/.372/.426 over 629 PA, which would have been worth around 34 runs above a replacement level SS. Instead he ended up being worth about fourteen runs worse than that. It’s easy to forget that Jeter actually had a very good April, hitting .330/.354/.521. From May 1 through September 13 he hit a miserable .247/.323/.338 before finishing the year on a relative hot streak of .347/.435/.389 (fueled by a BABIP of .439).

Jeter set a major league record by hitting 1200 ground balls in 2010. Actually, that may be a slight exaggeration, but he did hit 65.7% of his balls on the ground, which is 5.7% higher than he had done in any point in his career (data only available from 2002 on). Ground balls aren’t necessarily a horrible thing, since they’re slightly more likely to be hits than fly balls, but in Jeter’s case it just didn’t work out, whether it was due to him hitting weaker grounders or just having an exceedingly bad string of luck.

If you compare his batted ball data for 2009 and 2010, you can see a pretty clear difference.

Year	GB	FB	LD	IFFB
2009	309	123	110	1
2010	364	101	89	2

As a rough rule of thumb, here’s the average outcome for each type of batted ball from 2000-2010.

Type	out%	1b%	2b%	3b%	hr%
GB	73.1%	21.8%	1.8%	0.1%	0.0%
FB	72.5%	5.8%	8.3%	1.2%	11.5%
LD	26.9%	51.6%	17.6%	1.5%	2.3%
IFFB	97.0%	1.7%	5.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Batted ball data isn’t perfect, because it’s based on subjective assignment by people, so keep that in mind. We also need to be aware that different types of hitters will have different results with their batted balls. A Jorge Posada ground ball is not as likely to be a hit as a Brett Gardner ground ball, a Ramiro Pena fly ball is not as likely to be a hit as an Alex Rodriguez fly ball, etc.,

If we look at Jeter’s actual BABIP compared to an expected BABIP for 2009-2010 using the league average rates for each type of batted ball, here’s what it looks like.

Year	BABIP	xBABIP
2009	.368	.324
2010	.307	.302

This tells me we should expect Jeter to be closer to 2010 than 2009, but I think most of us already knew that.

The raw numbers tell us something, but they’re still kind of limited. Another thing I wondered about was if Jeter’s actual distribution of where he was hitting the ball was meaningfully different.

Using Baseball Reference’s hit location splits, here’s how 2007-2010 compare.

Year	Split	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	GDP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	BA	OBP	SLG
2007	Ball In Play	532	527	194	39	4	0	21	3	2	0	16	.367	.368	.367	.457
2008	Ball In Play	511	500	168	25	3	0	24	7	4	0	11	.333	.336	.333	.398
2009	Ball In Play	531	526	194	27	1	0	18	4	1	0	7	.368	.369	.368	.424
2010	Ball In Play	552	548	170	30	3	1	22	1	3	0	7	.307	.310	.309	.381
2007	Fair Terr	540	535	206	39	4	12	21	3	2	0	16	.370	.385	.384	.540
2008	Fair Terr	518	507	179	25	3	11	24	7	4	0	11	.336	.353	.350	.479
2009	Fair Terr	546	541	212	27	1	18	18	4	1	0	7	.370	.392	.391	.545
2010	Fair Terr	558	554	179	30	3	10	22	1	3	0	7	.309	.323	.321	.442
2007	Opp Fld-RHB	91	90	40	12	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	.433	.444	.440	.611
2008	Opp Fld-RHB	109	107	41	11	1	5	0	1	1	0	1	.350	.383	.380	.645
2009	Opp Fld-RHB	119	119	54	10	1	10	0	0	0	0	2	.404	.454	.454	.807
2010	Opp Fld-RHB	123	123	50	10	2	2	1	0	0	0	1	.397	.407	.407	.569
2007	Pulled-RHB	105	104	57	14	0	6	3	1	0	0	6	.520	.548	.548	.856
2008	Pulled-RHB	91	90	34	3	0	2	6	1	0	0	1	.364	.378	.378	.478
2009	Pulled-RHB	84	83	42	3	0	2	1	1	0	0	3	.494	.506	.506	.614
2010	Pulled-RHB	84	84	33	6	0	2	3	0	0	0	2	.378	.393	.393	.536
2007	To Infield	266	263	27	0	0	0	21	3	0	0	16	.103	.103	.103	.103
2008	To Infield	273	266	30	0	0	0	24	7	0	0	8	.113	.113	.113	.113
2009	To Infield	282	278	29	0	0	0	18	4	0	0	6	.104	.104	.104	.104
2010	To Infield	334	333	36	1	0	0	22	1	0	0	7	.108	.108	.108	.111
2007	To Outfield	278	276	179	39	4	12	0	0	2	0	0	.628	.649	.644	.949
2008	To Outfield	249	245	149	25	3	11	0	0	4	0	3	.580	.608	.598	.869
2009	To Outfield	267	266	183	27	1	18	0	0	1	0	1	.663	.688	.685	1.000
2010	To Outfield	227	224	143	29	3	10	0	0	3	0	0	.613	.638	.630	.929
2007	Up Mdle-RHB	348	345	109	13	4	5	18	2	1	0	10	.305	.316	.315	.420
2008	Up Mdle-RHB	322	314	104	11	2	4	18	5	3	0	9	.319	.331	.328	.417
2009	Up Mdle-RHB	346	342	116	14	0	6	17	3	1	0	2	.326	.339	.338	.433
2010	Up Mdle-RHB	354	350	96	14	1	6	18	1	3	0	4	.259	.274	.272	.371

The biggest takeaway from this chart for me is that Jeter has never done well on balls hit to the infield, at least not since 2007. Of course that’s true of anyone, since it’s just infield singles and ground outs. The primary problem in 2010 was that he had so many more of them, which again is something I think anyone who watched him in 2010 intuitively knew already. Basically, if Jeter’s going to be better in 2011, he probably has to stop hitting so many freaking grounders. We’ll see if the changes that Kevin Long and Jeter have been working on with reducing his stride help with that.

That’s still not granular enough for me, so here’s how Jeter’s balls in play have been fielded by each position over the past four seasons.

Pos	2007	2008	2009	2010
P	5.3%	5.7%	6.3%	6.9%
C	0.5%	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
1B	3.8%	3.4%	4.7%	5.2%
2B	11.9%	14.6%	12.3%	15.2%
3B	10.3%	14.4%	10.4%	12.1%
SS	18.5%	16.6%	19.5%	20.7%
LF	11.4%	5.5%	9.4%	6.4%
CF	19.6%	17.6%	17.0%	15.0%
RF	18.7%	22.1%	20.2%	18.1%
Left	21.6%	19.9%	19.8%	18.5%
Middle	55.9%	54.6%	55.3%	58.2%
Right	22.5%	25.4%	24.9%	23.3%

Left is just 3B and LF, middle is C, P, 2B, SS, CF and right is 1B and RF. This table tells me that Jeter was not able to pull the ball as frequently in 2010 as he had in prior seasons, although he wasn’t that far off from what he did in 2007.

Here’s how the projections see Jeter doing in 2011.

Offense

projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR	BABIP
bill_james	703	641	101	189	31	2	13	68	17	6	62	.295	.357	.410	.342	91	84	7	32	.337
fans	674	618	95	179	27	2	12	72	16	5	56	.290	.358	.398	.340	83	80	3	27	.327
cairo	699	624	99	181	29	2	13	70	15	5	63	.290	.361	.405	.342	88	82	5	30	.322
marcel	641	575	87	163	25	2	12	59	17	5	54	.283	.348	.397	.332	77	78	1	24	.317
oliver	656	587	77	166	24	2	11	65	14	5	56	.283	.349	.387	.329	76	76	-1	22	.319
pecota	710	631	85	177	27	2	12	70	19	6	62	.281	.349	.387	.329	84	76	0	25	.316
zips	648	582	82	163	24	3	12	58	17	5	54	.280	.346	.393	.330	77	77	0	23	.311
average*	671	600	86	170	26	2	12	64	16	5	58	.283	.351	.394	.332	80	78	1	24	.317
2010	739	663	111	179	30	3	10	67	18	5	63	.270	.340	.370	.319	82	72	-5	20	.307

Kind of grim. The projections do think Jeter will be better in 2011, but only by about 5 runs or so.

CAIRO likes him more than most of the other projections. Here are his percentile forecasts.

cairo %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR	BABIP
80%	734	655	109	197	33	3	16	78	18	6	70	.301	.378	.431	.361	102	90	14	40	.330
65%	713	636	104	188	31	2	14	74	16	6	66	.295	.369	.418	.352	94	86	10	35	.326
Baseline	699	624	99	181	29	2	13	70	15	5	63	.290	.361	.405	.342	88	82	5	30	.322
35%	629	562	82	154	22	1	9	57	11	3	51	.274	.335	.366	.314	67	69	-7	15	.311
20%	559	499	67	129	17	0	6	46	7	1	41	.258	.309	.327	.285	49	57	-17	3	.299

To be honest, until I see something that makes me think differently, I have to assume Jeter’s going to be closer to that 35% forecast, which is around what he did in 2010.

Defense

Jeter won his fifth Gold Glove in 2010, which should tell you all you need to know about his defense. Either that, or it tells you how useless the Gold Glove awards are.

Player	Jeter, Derek
Pos	SS
year	G	Inn	DRS	zRS	uRS	tRS	avg	rARM
2006	150	1292	-18	-5	-7	-5	-9	0
2007	155	1318	-23	-20	-18	-22	-21	0
2008	148	1258	-9	3	0	0	-2	0
2009	150	1260	2	-3	6	4	2	0
2010	151	1285	-13	-18	-7	-12	-12	0
avg	151	1283	-12	-9	-5	-7	-8	0
w_avg	151	1278	-10	-9	-3	-7	-7	0

You need to remember that when you’re looking at these numbers, they are comparing Jeter to his fellow shortstops. He just doesn’t compare well to his peers in any of the defensive metrics. We also need to remember what these numbers are telling us. They’re not saying Jeter misses two or three plays a game. An average of -7 for the season means Jeter’s missing something like one play every four weeks.

Like I’ve said before, when all the metrics basically say the same thing, I am willing to trust them. The thing is, it’s possible Jeter may actually be even worse than these numbers show, as Colin Wyers has done some research that shows a possible range bias by the people who track defense. I have no idea how much worse that might make Jeter, but I’d also assume if he becomes that obviously bad he won’t be playing shortstop full-time.

Base Running

Year	ga_opps	ga_r	aa_opps	aa_r	ha_opps	ha_r	oa_opps	oa_r	total_opps	total_r
2007	38	0	58	1	56	3	462	0	614	3
2008	35	0	54	1	58	1	389	-1	536	1
2009	42	0	77	-1	65	1	554	-1	738	-1
2010	38	-1	54	1	63	0	498	1	653	2
Proj	39	0	61	0	62	1	489	0	651	1

ga_opps: opportunities to advance on grounders
ga_r: run value of advances on grounders
aa_opps: opportunites to advance on air outs
aa_r: run value of advances on air outs
ha_opps: opportunites to advance on hits
ha_r: run value of advances on hits
oa_opps: opportunites to adance on other (wild pitches, passed balls, etc.,)
oa_r: run value of advances on other
total_opps: ga + aa + ha + ao opportunities
total_r: total run value of non-SB base running, compared to average

Between his SB and non-SB base running, Jeter’s still an asset, although that’s less likely to hold true as he ages.

We’ll be hearing about Jeter’s run at 3000 hits for the first few months of the season, which is bizarre since it happened on June 5th of last season. But to humor those who don’t realize it, Jeter should probably be close to getting his 3000th hit by the second week of June. June 7 through 9 is a three game home series with Boston, and that seems like a good time for it to happen (for the second time).

I’m somewhat pessimistic about Jeter going forward, because even if his offense gets better his defense is almost certainly going to get worse. It doesn’t mean I dislike him. If I was him I’d play until they ripped the uniform off my back. It’ll be up to the Yankees to figure out how they want to handle the scenario where Jeter begins actively hurting the team if/when it manifests itself. I don’t think that will happen in 2011, but I’m positive it will happen before he retires.

--Posted at 8:01 am by SG / 36 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Looking Ahead To 2011 - Jorge Posada

Jorge Posada is heading into the final year of his contract and what may be the final year of his career. For the first time since 1998, he won’t be the Yankees’ starting catcher, as post-concussion symptoms and a continued defensive decline have caused the Yankees to move him to DH.

Here’s how Posada projects heading into 2011.

Offense

projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR	BABIP
bill_james	414	361	49	94	22	0	16	60	2	1	53	.260	.355	.454	.355	58	91	9	12	.310
fans	501	438	69	117	25	1	18	76	1	0	63	.267	.369	.452	.364	71	92	12	15	.320
cairo	405	350	48	94	21	1	15	59	2	1	46	.269	.356	.463	.356	57	91	9	11	.319
marcel	469	409	51	103	24	1	17	62	3	1	51	.252	.339	.440	.341	61	84	5	8	.295
oliver	433	377	50	93	19	1	15	55	1	1	48	.247	.335	.422	.333	53	80	2	5	.295
pecota	450	389	57	99	22	0	16	54	2	1	53	.254	.349	.434	.345	59	85	6	8	.299
zips	404	348	41	86	20	1	17	56	2	1	48	.247	.344	.457	.349	55	88	7	10	.290
average*	432	375	49	95	21	1	16	57	2	1	49	.254	.344	.443	.345	57	86	6	8	.299
2010	451	383	49	95	23	1	18	57	3	1	59	.248	.357	.454	.356	63	91	10	13	.287

Despite approaching 40, Posada’s still been a a better than average hitter. Of course, his bat is more valuable when it’s compared to a catcher than it is when compared to a DH. The average catcher is about 12.5 runs worse than an average hitter over a full season. An average DH generally needs to be at least that much better than an average hitter, and perhaps more than that if you want to account for the fact that they provide no defensive value. The standard position-adjustment for a DH is -17.5 runs. So over a full season, a DH who is about 30 runs better than an average defensive catcher offensively is probably not any more valuable relative to position.
Aside from CAIRO, this doesn’t set a good tone for how much Posada’s going to help the Yankees in 2011, but it may not be as dire as it seems on first blush.

There was a discussion in this post at The Book Blog about when a catcher can no longer catch. In it, Tango Tiger references research he’s done that shows that a catcher’s offense will improve by about a win if they’re not catching. I think the actual research was in one of the Hardball Times Annuals, but I can’t find a direct link to it. We don’t know if this is what will happen for Posada obviously, but we can hope. CAIRO is regressing Posada’s offense towards DH, which is the primary reason it appears so bullish on Posada. I don’t think the other projections have done anything in that regard. Then again, wear and tear is cumulative, and the fact that Posada won’t be catching in 2011 doesn’t change the fact that he caught a lot of games in his career and a lot of the damage has already been done.

Here are Posada’s CAIRO percentile forecasts.

cairo %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR
80%	425	368	54	104	24	2	18	66	3	2	52	.282	.378	.503	.383	67	103	16	19
65%	413	357	51	98	23	1	16	62	2	1	49	.275	.367	.483	.369	62	97	12	15
Baseline	405	350	48	94	21	1	15	59	2	1	46	.269	.356	.463	.356	57	91	9	11
35%	365	315	40	80	17	0	12	50	1	0	38	.255	.333	.423	.330	45	79	1	4
20%	324	280	33	67	13	0	9	41	0	0	31	.241	.310	.383	.303	34	68	-4	-2

Given how optimistic the baseline is in relation to the other projections, that may be about as much as we can realistically hope for.

Base Running

Posada is a brilliant baserunner, who combines blazing speed with uncanny instincts.

Year	ga_opps	ga_r	aa_opps	aa_r	ha_opps	ha_r	oa_opps	oa_r	total_opps	total_r
2007	34	-1	52	-1	57	-4	361	-2	504	-8
2008	10	0	10	0	14	-1	87	0	121	-1
2009	20	0	29	-1	34	-6	177	-1	260	-8
2010	16	0	29	-1	29	-4	252	-1	326	-6
Proj	18	0	28	-1	30	-4	207	-1	283	-6

Posada’s such a good baserunner that he cannot be measured by the limited tools we currently have at our disposal. When we get BaseRunning F/X we may be able to better understand him.

Defense

I suppose I can throw his defensive projection at catcher up for the hell of it.

Player	Jorge Posada
Year	Inn	DRS	DRS/120
2006	1050	4	4
2007	1111	-6	-6
2008	234	-4	-18
2009	785	-1	-1
2010	660	-5	-8
avg	768	-2	-3
w_avg	694	-3	-5

This is only looking at SB/CS. If you add in the passed balls and wild pitches I’m fairly certain you can double the negative numbers. It shouldn’t be an issue in 2011, as I’d be surprised to see Posada catching in anything other than emergency situations.

The nice thing about having Posada around as an emergency catcher is it should give the Yankees the flexibility to use Jesus Montero as a DH or pinch-hitter if necessary without the fear of not having a backup catcher should something happen to Russell Martin. It seems like the Yankees are extremely concerned about Posada’s concussions though, so I am not sure how much they’d be willing to use him there.

With Andy Pettitte’s retirement, we’re down to Posada, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera from the 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2009 World Series Champion Yankees. Unless Posada has a monster year, I’d be surprised to see him back in 2012, at least as a Yankee. Unfortunately, at this point he looks like a long shot for the Hall of Fame, but if he can tack on a few productive years as a DH that might change.

--Posted at 3:55 pm by SG / 46 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Looking Ahead To 2011 - Alex Rodriguez

If you go by Baseball Reference’s version of wins above replacement(WAR), Alex Rodriguez had what was probably the worst full season of his career in 2010.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	PA	WAR
1996	20	SEA	AL	677	9.4
1997	21	SEA	AL	638	4.8
1998	22	SEA	AL	748	7.9
1999	23	SEA	AL	572	4.7
2000	24	SEA	AL	672	11.0
2001	25	TEX	AL	732	8.0
2002	26	TEX	AL	725	8.2
2003	27	TEX	AL	715	7.7
2004	28	NYY	AL	698	6.2
2005	29	NYY	AL	715	8.4
2006	30	NYY	AL	674	4.2
2007	31	NYY	AL	708	9.9
2008	32	NYY	AL	594	5.4
2009	33	NYY	AL	535	3.9
2010	34	NYY	AL	595	2.9

Given his age and his hip injury that’s not surprising. However, the degree of his drop was larger than projected. Rodriguez’s average projection heading into 2010 was for a line of .285/.387/.543 which would have been worth about 48 runs above replacement level. A slightly lower run environment combined with his worse than expected hitting meant he was in fact only worth about 37 runs above replacement level offensively.

So of course, the question is why.

Season	BIP	BABIP	GB%	FB%	LD%	HR/FB	BB/PA	K/PA
2007	441	.309	44.0%	44.9%	18.1%	27.3%	16.3%	20.6%
2008	378	.328	44.2%	42.1%	19.0%	22.0%	12.7%	22.9%
2009	329	.303	45.0%	40.1%	21.3%	22.7%	18.0%	21.8%
2010	420	.274	47.6%	41.7%	14.3%	17.1%	11.3%	18.8%
Career	3581	.318	42.2%	40.0%	17.8%	23.1%	12.7%	20.8%

BABIP: Batting average on balls in play
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that were ground balls
FB%: Percentage of balls in play that were fly balls
LD%: Percentage of balls in play that were line drives
HR/FB: Home runs per fly ball

The .274 BABIP was the lowest of Rodriguez’s career, although he does have seasons of .281 (1999) and .290 (2002) on his ledger. Rodriguez’s line drive percentage plummeted, as did his walk rate. He actually struck out less frequently, but all that meant was he made more outs on balls in play. I think it’s a safe assumption that Rodriguez was not hitting the ball as hard in 2010 as he had prior, although we don’t know if that explains the entire drop in his BABIP and HR/FB.

Another oddity about Rodriguez’s 2010 was his poor hitting against LHP. He’s hit .217/.314/.441 against them compared to .290/.352/.530 vs. RHP in 2010. He actually does have a slight reverse platoon split for his career (.290/.387/.567 compared to vs. LHP .307/.387/.573 vs RHP) but the 2010 performance sure looks like an outlier.

A rebound by Rodriguez is going to be key if the Yankees are going to contend for the postseason in 2011, so let’s look at what the projections think.

Offense

projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR	BABIP
bill_james	621	545	95	155	27	1	35	116	10	4	76	.284	.372	.530	.388	103	108	29	50	.306
fans	590	522	89	149	29	2	31	108	6	2	68	.285	.378	.527	.392	98	108	27	48	.302
cairo	594	510	88	143	27	1	32	116	11	3	69	.280	.370	.525	.384	97	106	26	46	.293
marcel	551	479	74	129	24	1	26	96	10	3	60	.269	.354	.486	.363	81	96	16	35	.289
oliver	562	485	77	131	23	1	29	88	8	3	65	.270	.361	.501	.372	86	99	19	38	.287
pecota	621	533	88	145	25	1	34	93	13	4	75	.272	.370	.514	.381	99	104	25	47	.288
zips	537	459	73	127	23	1	30	103	10	3	63	.277	.369	.527	.383	87	105	23	42	.285
average*	573	493	80	135	24	1	30	99	10	3	66	.274	.365	.511	.377	90	102	22	42	.288
2010	595	522	74	141	29	2	30	125	4	3	59	.270	.341	.506	.360	88	96	17	37	.274

The projections do expect a better Rodriguez in 2011, albeit only slightly better. At age 35, the clock isn’t on his side.

Here are his CAIRO percentile forecasts.

cairo %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR
80%	624	536	99	159	32	2	38	130	14	4	79	.297	.398	.575	.416	115	120	40	62
65%	606	520	93	150	29	1	35	122	12	4	73	.289	.384	.550	.400	105	113	32	54
Baseline	594	510	88	143	27	1	32	116	11	3	69	.280	.370	.525	.384	97	106	26	46
35%	535	459	75	123	22	0	26	100	8	2	58	.269	.351	.490	.361	79	95	15	34
20%	475	408	63	105	17	0	21	84	6	1	49	.257	.331	.455	.338	62	85	6	23

I’m not sure how feasible it is to think Rodriguez can achieve the upper end of those forecasts, so here’s a list of the best seasons by a player aged 35 or older in terms of total linear weights batting runs.

Rank	playerID	yearID	teamID	lgID	Age	BR
1	bondsba01	2001	SFN	NL	37	185
2	bondsba01	2004	SFN	NL	40	173
3	bondsba01	2002	SFN	NL	38	169
4	mcgwima01	1998	SLN	NL	35	163
5	ruthba01	1931	NYA	AL	36	158
6	ruthba01	1930	NYA	AL	35	157
7	mcgwima01	1999	SLN	NL	36	142
8	bondsba01	2003	SFN	NL	39	140
9	speaktr01	1923	CLE	AL	35	139
10	willite01	1957	BOS	AL	39	137
11	bondsba01	2000	SFN	NL	36	134
12	palmera01	1999	TEX	AL	35	133
13	sheffga01	2003	ATL	NL	35	133
14	ruthba01	1932	NYA	AL	37	132
15	walkela01	2001	COL	NL	35	131
16	thompsa01	1895	PHI	NL	35	129
17	martied01	1998	SEA	AL	35	125
18	martied01	2000	SEA	AL	37	125
19	galaran01	1996	COL	NL	35	124
20	palmera01	2001	TEX	AL	37	124
21	lajoina01	1910	CLE	AL	36	122
22	galaran01	1997	COL	NL	36	122
23	odoulle01	1932	BRO	NL	35	122
24	molitpa01	1993	TOR	AL	37	121
25	fournja01	1925	BRO	NL	36	120
26	evansdw01	1987	BOS	AL	36	120
27	galaran01	1998	ATL	NL	37	120
28	gehrilo01	1938	NYA	AL	35	120
29	broutda01	1894	BLN	NL	36	119
30	aaronha01	1971	ATL	NL	37	119
31	molitpa01	1991	ML4	AL	35	119
32	aaronha01	1969	ATL	NL	35	119
33	palmera01	2000	TEX	AL	36	118
34	palmera01	2002	TEX	AL	38	118
35	mizejo01	1948	NY1	NL	35	118
36	jonesch06	2007	ATL	NL	35	118
37	musiast01	1955	SLN	NL	35	117
38	willite01	1954	BOS	AL	36	117
39	gehrich01	1938	DET	AL	35	117
40	fournja01	1924	BRO	NL	35	117
41	thomeji01	2006	CHA	AL	36	117
42	thomafr04	2003	CHA	AL	35	116
43	gonzalu01	2003	ARI	NL	36	116
44	wheatza01	1925	BRO	NL	37	116
45	martied01	1999	SEA	AL	36	116
46	gwynnto01	1997	SDN	NL	37	115
47	henrito01	1948	NYA	AL	35	115
48	connoro01	1892	PHI	NL	35	115
49	gosligo01	1936	DET	AL	36	114
50	anderbr01	1999	BAL	AL	35	113
51	wheatza01	1924	BRO	NL	36	113
52	musiast01	1957	SLN	NL	37	113
53	sheffga01	2004	NYA	AL	36	113
54	rosepe01	1976	CIN	NL	35	113
55	aloumo01	2004	CHN	NL	38	113
56	delahed01	1902	WS1	AL	35	113
57	jeterde01	2009	NYA	AL	35	113
58	cobbty01	1921	DET	AL	35	113
59	oliveal01	1982	MON	NL	36	113
60	bagweje01	2003	HOU	NL	35	112
61	mcraeha01	1982	KCA	AL	37	111
62	brettge01	1988	KCA	AL	35	111
63	schmimi01	1986	PHI	NL	37	111
64	ruthba01	1933	NYA	AL	38	111
65	vernomi01	1953	WS1	AL	35	111
66	dimagjo01	1950	NYA	AL	36	111
67	greenha01	1946	DET	AL	35	110
68	cobbty01	1922	DET	AL	36	110
69	musiast01	1956	SLN	NL	36	110
70	mcgrifr01	1999	TBA	AL	36	110
71	stoveha01	1891	BSN	NL	35	109
72	averiea01	1937	CLE	AL	35	109
73	downibr01	1987	CAL	AL	37	109
74	molitpa01	1996	MIN	AL	40	109
75	johnsbo01	1944	BOS	AL	39	109
76	sheffga01	2005	NYA	AL	37	109
77	cobbty01	1924	DET	AL	38	108
78	willicy01	1924	PHI	NL	37	108
79	walkela01	2002	COL	NL	36	108
80	rosepe01	1979	PHI	NL	38	107
81	aaronha01	1970	ATL	NL	36	107
82	winfida01	1988	NYA	AL	37	107
83	bicheda01	1998	COL	NL	35	107
84	posadjo01	2007	NYA	AL	36	107
85	careyma01	1925	PIT	NL	35	107
86	jonesch06	2008	ATL	NL	36	107
87	oneilpa01	1998	NYA	AL	35	106
88	molitpa01	1992	ML4	AL	36	106
89	mayswi01	1966	SFN	NL	35	106
90	willite01	1956	BOS	AL	38	105
91	willicy01	1922	PHI	NL	35	105
92	collied01	1924	CHA	AL	37	105
93	surhobj01	1999	BAL	AL	35	105
94	delgaca01	2008	NYN	NL	36	104
95	martied01	2001	SEA	AL	38	104
96	wagneho01	1912	PIT	NL	38	104
97	gracema01	1999	CHN	NL	35	104
98	willicy01	1923	PHI	NL	36	104
99	schmimi01	1985	PHI	NL	36	104
100	giambja01	2006	NYA	AL	35	104
101	schmimi01	1987	PHI	NL	38	104
102	biggicr01	2001	HOU	NL	36	104
103	bicheda01	1999	COL	NL	36	104
104	richaha01	1890	BSP	PL	35	104
105	heltoto01	2009	COL	NL	36	104
106	sauerha01	1952	CHN	NL	35	103
107	walketi01	1922	PHA	AL	35	103
108	speaktr01	1925	CLE	AL	37	103
109	ryanji01	1898	CHN	NL	35	103
110	sauerha01	1954	CHN	NL	37	102
111	suzukic01	2009	SEA	AL	36	102
112	joosted01	1951	PHA	AL	35	102
113	schmimi01	1984	PHI	NL	35	102
114	averiea01	1938	CLE	AL	36	102
115	hackst01	1945	CHN	NL	36	102
116	winfida01	1992	TOR	AL	41	102
117	gonzalu01	2002	ARI	NL	35	102
118	rosepe01	1977	CIN	NL	36	101
119	willite01	1958	BOS	AL	40	101
120	kentje01	2005	LAN	NL	37	101
121	ibanera01	2008	SEA	AL	36	101
122	terrybi01	1934	NY1	NL	36	101
123	aloumo01	2001	HOU	NL	35	101
124	thornan01	1984	CLE	AL	35	101
125	yastrca01	1977	BOS	AL	38	101
126	palmera01	2003	TEX	AL	39	100
127	finlest01	2000	ARI	NL	35	100
128	burnije01	2004	COL	NL	35	100
129	jacksre01	1982	CAL	AL	36	100
130	cobbty01	1925	DET	AL	39	100

There are 8674 age 35 or older seasons in MLB history. Of those seasons, only 130 of them have been worth at least 100 batting runs. It’s probably safe to say that eight of the top 12 seasons have a very good probability of having been chemically enhanced.

A few Yankees of recent vintage snuck into this list, including 2004 Gary Sheffield (#54 overall), 2009 Derek Jeter (#57), 2005 Sheffield (#76), 2007 Jorge Posada (#84), 1998 Paul O’Neill (#87) AND 2006 Jason Giambi (#100). Johnny Damon 2009 (#161) and Johnny Damon 2008 (#205) just missed the cut.

Of course, when you talk about Alex Rodriguez, you’re probably talking about one of the best players in baseball history. I’m pretty comfortable that Rodriguez is a better hitter right now than any of those recent vintage Yankees were at the time they had their big 35+ seasons. While it’s not the most likely scenario, he’s as good a bet as anyone to have a monster year at age 35, although achieving the heights of top of this list seems unlikely unless he gets into Giambi’s stash of super-secret designer undetectable steroids.

Base Running

Year	ga_opps	ga_r	aa_opps	aa_r	ha_opps	ha_r	oa_opps	oa_r	total_opps	total_r
2007	27	0	54	1	58	2	370	0	509	4
2008	19	0	38	0	41	0	290	1	388	2
2009	18	1	42	0	29	-2	239	0	328	-2
2010	21	0	27	0	36	-1	278	0	362	-1
Proj	20	0	36	0	37	-1	278	0	372	0

Since injuring his hip, Rodriguez has not been able to provide much value on the basepaths in both SB and non-SB baserunning. If he’s healthier he may be able to reverse that trend, but I’m not sure that we want him being overly aggressive on the bases if it means a greater risk of injury.

Defense

Player	Rodriguez, Alex
Pos	3B
year	G	Inn	DRS	zRS	uRS	tRS	avg	rARM
2006	151	1287	-12	-8	-14	-7	-10	0
2007	154	1330	1	1	-2	1	0	0
2008	131	1126	-2	-1	-2	-2	-2	0
2009	116	974	-8	-6	-6	-6	-7	0
2010	124	1029	-3	-2	-2	-6	-3	0
avg	135	1149	-5	-3	-5	-4	-4	0
w_avg	129	1091	-4	-3	-4	-4	-4	0

Rodriguez’s defense just doesn’t rate all that well no matter what metric you look at. It’s kind of tough to judge 3B defense visually because of how hard some of the chances they have to field are hit, but somewhere in the -5 range for Rodriguez seems about right. If he has better lateral movement as he moves further away from his hip surgery he can probably be better than that, but I wouldn’t expect him to rate better than average at any point going forward.

Despite his age, I think the gap between what Rodriguez projects to do and what he could do is bigger than that of any other Yankee position player. Like just about every player in history, he has come into spring training in great shape. On a more serious note, he has looked very good so far, not that it tells us much.

I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a monster year, and if he does that the Yankees will have as good of a shot as anyone of being the team that will lose to Philadelphia in the World Series.

--Posted at 7:13 pm by SG / 51 Comments | - (0)

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