Thursday, January 26, 2012
NY Post: Yankees GM calls Montero ‘best player I’ve traded’
Yankees GM Brian Cashman has traded Alfonso Soriano, Nick Johnson, David Wells and Mike Lowell, but said believes Jesus Montero could be better than all of them.
“He may very well be the best player I’ve traded,” Cashman said of Montero, whom he sent to Seattle in a deal to get right-hander Michael Pineda that was finalized yesterday. “He’s that good. He’s a middle-of-the-lineup type bat.”
That means Cashman expects a lot out of Pineda, the 6-foot-7, 23-year-old who went 9-10 as a rookie last year. Cashman and Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik first discussed Pineda at the Winter Meetings last month.
Let’s hope not.
Monday, March 7, 2011
NJ.com: Carig - Yankees’ Eric Chavez, Eduardo Nunez inch closer to making roster
Chavez, the former Gold Glove third baseman, is 8-for-17 in spring training games. Known for his defense at third base, Chavez has played at first base for the Yankees, making him an intriguing option as a backup corner infielder.
Yankees manager Joe Girardi said the only issue with Chavez remains health.
“He seems to be doing real well right now,” Girardi said. “There’s nothing that I’ve seen from him that would tell me he’s been hurt the last couple of years.”
There’s a Nick Johnson on line one Mr. Girardi.
Meanwhile, Nunez is off to a fast start in his attempt to win a job as the Yankees’ utilityman, going 6-for-21 in spring. Today, Nunez hit a three-run homer, his first of the exhibition season, in the Yankees’ 7-1 home victory against the Phillies.
“I think I have a good chance,” Nunez said. “I’m working hard.”
So much for Ronnie Belliard…
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
2010 All Star Break Review - June Edition
A little late, but following up on April and May here’s the June All Star Break review.
June looked like the Yankees’ easiest month on paper, with 18 of their 27 games at home, and with a bunch of those games against minor league teams from Houston, Philadelphia and Queens. Log5 would have estimated them winning about 18 of those 27 games.
| Series | Start Date | # Gms | xW | aW | diff |
| Orioles at Yankees | 6/1/2010 | 3 | 2.3 | 3 | 0.7 |
| Yankees at Blue Jays | 6/4/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 1 | -0.8 |
| Yankees at Orioles | 6/8/2010 | 3 | 2.1 | 2 | -0.1 |
| Astros at Yankees | 6/11/2010 | 3 | 2.3 | 3 | 0.7 |
| Phillies at Yankees | 6/15/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 1 | -0.8 |
| Mets at Yankees | 6/18/2010 | 3 | 1.9 | 2 | 0.1 |
| Yankees at Diamondbacks | 6/21/2010 | 3 | 1.9 | 2 | 0.1 |
| Yankees at Dodgers | 6/25/2010 | 3 | 1.6 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Mariners at Yankees | 6/29/2010 | 3 | 2.1 | 1 | -1.1 |
| Total | 27 | 18 | 17 | -1 |
xW: Expected wins for this series using log 5
aW: Actual wins
diff: Difference between xW and aW. Positive means team exceeded expectations
The Yankees did about a win worse than expected, with the home series against Seattle to end the month the biggest problem (this does include the game in July 1). It felt worse than that, but I think a big part of that was the drop in offense, as the team went from scoring 5.6 runs per game in April and 5.7 runs per game in May to 4.7 in June.
| Player | month | pa | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | so | sb | cs | gdp | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | br |
| Derek Jeter | 6 | 118 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 4 | .243 | .339 | .379 | .323 | 13 |
| Mark Teixeira | 6 | 116 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .250 | .353 | .460 | .359 | 16 |
| Robinson Cano | 6 | 113 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .333 | .398 | .510 | .398 | 19 |
| Nick Swisher | 6 | 117 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .240 | .325 | .423 | .328 | 14 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 6 | 90 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .244 | .311 | .463 | .333 | 12 |
| Brett Gardner | 6 | 71 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0 | .383 | .479 | .533 | .450 | 14 |
| Curtis Granderson | 6 | 100 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .239 | .300 | .457 | .325 | 13 |
| Jorge Posada | 6 | 90 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .203 | .344 | .351 | .323 | 10 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 6 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .180 | .275 | .246 | .250 | 4 |
| Marcus Thames | 6 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .071 | .133 | .071 | .108 | -1 |
| Nick Johnson | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Ramiro Pena | 6 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .136 | .240 | .136 | .200 | 1 |
| Randy Winn | 6 | 51 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .277 | .333 | .383 | .322 | 6 |
| Kevin Russo | 6 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .130 | .231 | .130 | .192 | 1 |
| Juan Miranda | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Colin Curtis | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Chad Huffman | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Chad Moeller | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .333 | .400 | .327 | 1 |
| Greg Golson | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
br: Total linear weights batting runs, not position-adjusted or compared to average/replacement level
Once again, Robinson Cano was the most valuable offensive player on the team although Brett Gardner has the best rate performance. Derek Jeter had a relatively rough month, and reality slammed into Francisco Cervelli’s over-sized batting helmet with extreme force. But in general, the team overall just didn’t have a good month offensively. The only players who hit at least as well as they projected entering the season were Cano and TSBG.
On the plus side, the team’s run prevention in June improved over May, falling to 4.3 from 4.4. Of course, that’s at least partially a function of only pitching to 88.9% of a major league lineup for a large part of the month, and a function of playing some bad teams.
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| CC Sabathia | 5 | 5 | 37.0 | 25 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 2.19 | 2.19 | 3.15 | 14.3 |
| Javier Vazquez | 6 | 6 | 39.0 | 26 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 3.23 | 3.23 | 4.48 | 10.6 |
| Andy Pettitte | 5 | 5 | 34.0 | 28 | 15 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 3.97 | 3.18 | 3.85 | 6.4 |
| Phil Hughes | 5 | 5 | 31.3 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 5.46 | 5.17 | 4.09 | 0.8 |
| A.J. Burnett | 5 | 5 | 23.0 | 35 | 29 | 29 | 9 | 3 | 17 | 19 | 11.35 | 11.35 | 9.24 | -14.5 |
| SP Total | 26 | 26 | 164.33 | 151 | 86 | 82 | 25 | 7 | 61 | 146 | 4.71 | 4.49 | 4.64 | 17.6 |
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| Mariano Rivera | 11 | 0 | 13.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.43 | 7.5 |
| David Robertson | 9 | 0 | 9.0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.53 | 4.2 |
| Boone Logan | 4 | 0 | 7.7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 3.33 | 2.4 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 12 | 0 | 10.7 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 4.22 | 4.22 | 2.45 | 1.2 |
| Sergio Mitre | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.70 | 1.2 |
| Chad Gaudin | 7 | 0 | 12.7 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 4.97 | 4.97 | 6.04 | 0.3 |
| Chan Ho Park | 9 | 0 | 11.7 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 5.40 | 5.40 | 3.46 | -0.2 |
| Damaso Marte | 8 | 0 | 5.3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 7.33 | -0.9 |
| RP Total | 61 | 0 | 72 | 57 | 26 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 65 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.53 | 15.8 |
| SP + RP | 87 | 26 | 236.33 | 208 | 112 | 108 | 29 | 9 | 93 | 211 | 4.27 | 4.11 | 4.30 | 33.4 |
A.J. Burnett’s June could’ve gone a little better. Phil Hughes also had a disappointing month, but the it’s tough to quibble with how Sabathia, Vazquez and Pettitte did. The bullpen had its best month of the season overall, with David Robertson finally starting to resemble the 2009 vintage. It’s easy to forget how dominant Mo can be at times, but look at that June line and marvel at his awesomeness.
Once again the Yankees ERA was lower than their FIP, this time to the tune of about six runs. So it’s probably a safe assumption that the defense played pretty well, even if they don’t deserve all the credit for that difference.
The Yankees’ run differential in June was by far their worst of the season, as they allowed 114 runs to go with the 128 runs scored, a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .554. So the Yankees may have been a bit fortunate to actually only miss their expectations by one game.
And since it was requested, here’s a WAR pie chart for the Yankees through Sunday’s games.
Not shown:
Boone Logan: 0.2
Romulo Sanchez: 0.2
Damaso Marte: 0.2
Juan Miranda: 0.2
Alfredo Aceves: 0.2
Ivan Nova: 0.2
A.J. Burnett: 0.1
Kevin Russo: 0.1
Sergio Mitre: 0.1
Greg Golson: 0.1
David Robertson: 0.0
Colin Curtis: 0.0
Chad Moeller: 0.0
Chad Huffman: -0.1
Dustin Moseley: -0.2
Mark Melancon: -0.3
Ramiro Pena: -0.3
Chan Ho Park: -0.3
Joba Chamberlain: -0.4
Monday, July 12, 2010
2010 All Star Break Review - May Edition
After a solid April, the Yankees headed into May hoping to continue their winning ways.
On paper, the May schedule looked to be a bit easier than April’s. In terms of expected winning percentage, the Yankees were expect to win 12.3 of 21 games in April, a winning percentage of .585. May had 30 games scheduled, and their log5 expected wins was about 18.3, or a .609 winning percentage.
| Series | Start Date | # Gms | xW | aW | diff |
| White Sox at Yankees | 5/2/2010 | 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.1 |
| Orioles at Yankees | 5/5/2010 | 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| Yankees at Red Sox | 5/9/2010 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| Yankees at Tigers | 5/13/2010 | 4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | -1.3 |
| Twins at Yankees | 5/16/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| Red Sox at Yankees | 5/18/2010 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | -0.1 |
| Rays at Yankees | 5/20/2010 | 2 | 1.1 | 0.0 | -1.1 |
| Yankees at Mets | 5/23/2010 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | -0.6 |
| Yankees at Twins | 5/27/2010 | 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| Indians at Yankees | 5/31/2010 | 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.2 |
| Total | 30 | 18.3 | 17.0 | -1.3 |
xW: Expected wins for this series using log 5
aW: Actual wins
diff: Difference between xW and aW. Positive means team is ahead of their projected pace
The Yankees took care of business in the first three series they played, taking two of three against the White Sox and sweeping Baltimore before shipping up to Boston and taking two of three.
Then came a disappointing series in Detroit where they lost three of four, when they probably should have split.
They finished off the month by taking two of three from Minnesota at home then splitting a two-gamer with Boston. Then came the first series of the year were they didn’t win a game, as Tampa Bay came into DNYS and took a two-gamer. Next up came a three game exhibition series against the Mets in Flushing, where the Yankees dropped two of three. However, for some reason Bud Selig decided exhibition games should count so the Yanks got saddled with a series loss.
They finished up the month by doing what they should have done on the road against Minnesota and Cleveland, winning both series and finishing up the month with 17 wins, about one win less than log5 would have expected.
The Yankees scored 171 runs in May, an average of about 5.7 per game. That was a hair better than April. Here’s how the hitters performed.
| Player | pa | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | so | sb | cs | gdp | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | br |
| Derek Jeter | 140 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 2 | .281 | .343 | .359 | .320 | 16 |
| Mark Teixeira | 134 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .280 | .366 | .475 | .368 | 19 |
| Robinson Cano | 125 | 39 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .336 | .384 | .509 | .390 | 20 |
| Nick Swisher | 102 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .374 | .441 | .670 | .472 | 23 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 118 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .330 | .415 | .534 | .414 | 21 |
| Brett Gardner | 127 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 2 | .286 | .370 | .375 | .339 | 16 |
| Curtis Granderson | 18 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .444 | .533 | .434 | 3 |
| Jorge Posada | 35 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .355 | .429 | .581 | .434 | 7 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 84 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .307 | .381 | .400 | .353 | 11 |
| Marcus Thames | 57 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .222 | .386 | .311 | .341 | 6 |
| Nick Johnson | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .286 | .412 | .643 | .441 | 3 |
| Ramiro Pena | 36 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | .235 | .278 | .265 | .249 | 2 |
| Randy Winn | 56 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .250 | .357 | .354 | .326 | 6 |
| Kevin Russo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .250 | .250 | .225 | 0 |
| Juan Miranda | 34 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .226 | .294 | .419 | .309 | 4 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
br: Total Linear weights batting runs, not position-adjusted or compared to average/replacement level
The injury bug hit the Yankees in May, with Curtis Granderson, Jorge Posada and Nick Johnson all going down, pressing Francisco Cervelli, Randy Winn and Juan Miranda into the lineup a bit more than you’d hope for. Cervelli was up to the task, but it’s probably safe to say the others weren’t so much.
Nick Swisher was the best offensive player on the team in May, hitting .374/.441/.670 with seven homers. Alex Rodriguez also had a good month, and although Cano dropped from otherworldly to really good he was also very valuable. Mark Teixeira also showed signs of life after a disastrous April.
In April the pitching staff allowed an average of 3.76 runs per game, but they fell off in May, going to 4.4 runs per game.
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| Phil Hughes | 6 | 6 | 38.7 | 35 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 3.03 | 3.03 | 2.81 | 11.4 |
| A.J. Burnett | 6 | 6 | 38.0 | 38 | 22 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 33 | 5.21 | 4.03 | 3.91 | 2.0 |
| CC Sabathia | 6 | 6 | 36.7 | 40 | 22 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 5.40 | 5.15 | 5.60 | 1.1 |
| Andy Pettitte | 5 | 5 | 31.3 | 29 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 3.16 | 2.87 | 4.51 | 8.8 |
| Javier Vazquez | 5 | 4 | 22.0 | 21 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 18 | 4.91 | 4.91 | 5.43 | 1.9 |
| Total | 28 | 27 | 167 | 163 | 80 | 73 | 22 | 4 | 52 | 132 | 4.32 | 3.94 | 4.34 | 25.1 |
rsar: runs saved above replacement level, calculated as n times league average RA minus pitcher RA time innings pitched, where n = 1.25 for starters and 1.15 for reliever.
May was the Phil Hughes show, as he was the most valuable pitcher on the team. Although his ERA went up by about a run, his FIP went down as he improved his walk rate from 5.5 batters per nine inning to 1.9. Andy Pettitte also continued to pitch well, and although Javier Vazquez’s final May line wasn’t very good, he ended the month pitching quite well. CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett both had rough months after good starts to the season.
Once again, the bullpen disappointed.
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| Sergio Mitre | 8 | 2 | 18.7 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 3.86 | 3.38 | 5.24 | 2.8 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 11 | 0 | 11.3 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 8.74 | 7.94 | 1.52 | -4.4 |
| David Robertson | 11 | 0 | 11.0 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 5.73 | 5.73 | 6.02 | -0.6 |
| Boone Logan | 10 | 0 | 8.3 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.60 | -0.2 |
| Chan Ho Park | 6 | 0 | 7.7 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9.39 | 9.39 | 7.50 | -3.6 |
| Mariano Rivera | 8 | 0 | 7.3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6.14 | 3.68 | 4.70 | -0.7 |
| Damaso Marte | 10 | 0 | 5.3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1.69 | 1.69 | 3.39 | 2.1 |
| Mark Melancon | 2 | 0 | 4.0 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11.25 | 9.00 | 4.95 | -2.7 |
| Chad Gaudin | 2 | 0 | 3.7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4.91 | 4.91 | 10.02 | 0.1 |
| Romulo Sanchez | 1 | 0 | 3.7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.38 | 2.1 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 4 | 0 | 3.3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.60 | 1.9 |
| Ivan Nova | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.53 | 1.7 |
| Total | 75 | 2 | 87 | 89 | 52 | 47 | 13 | 34 | 3 | 70 | 5.36 | 4.84 | 4.80 | -1.3 |
Even Mo had a rough month before going down for a while with an oblique injury. Joba Chamberlain had three spectactular disaster games.
On May 16 he started teh eighth with a 3-1 lead. He did manage to get two outs in between allowing two singles and a walk to load the bases, at which point Mo came in and did things he’d only done four times in his career.
a) He walked in a run
b) He gave up a grand slam
Apparently, one implosion wasn’t good enough for Joba, as he came in two days later on May 18 in a home game against the Red Sox with a 5-1 lead, and proceeded to allow four hits and four runs as Boston tied the game. An error in the ninth allowed Boston to score one against Mo and the Yankees had one of the most painful losses of the season.
Apparently, that wasn’t good enough either, because on May 29 he once again turned what looked like a sure win into a loss. This time, he came in with the Yankees ahead 10-6. Despite the fact that Cleveland had runners on first and second, the Yankees had a win expectancy of about 95% since there were two outs.
- A single cut the lead to 10-7, and the win expectancy to 90%
- A walk loaded the bases and cut the win expectancy to 85%
- A double cut the lead to 10-9, and the win expectancy to 67%
- Another double put Cleveland ahead 11-10 and cut the Yankees’ win expectancy to 33%.
- Another single gave Cleveland another run and cut the Yankees’ win expectancy to 21%.
Joba finished up strong though, striking out Shin-Soo Choo to end the inning and moving the Yankees’ win expectancy back up to 22%.
And hey, his FIP was 1.52 in May, so that’s something. I know bebop was wondering about Joba’s BABIP and if we could expect it to get better, and I’ll try and get to that in a few days.
The rest of the pen really didn’t do anything of note, although it should be noted that Chan Ho Park’s ERA of 9.39 was almost two runs higher than his 7.50 FIP, so he may have been a little unlucky.
As far as the defense, once again the Yankees cumulative ERA(4.25) was lower than their FIP (4.50). The gap wasn’t quite as big as it was in April, but that’s a difference of about seven runs. Again, I don’t think we necessarily want to give all the credit for that to the defense, but I’m sure they deserve some of it.
Despite the frustrating games where Joba turned what looked like wins into losses, in the big picture May wasn’t really a bad month either. You could almost say that to this point, the Yankees had been consistent.
2010 All Star Break Review - April Edition
With the All Star Break’s arrival, we have a chance to look back at what’s happened so far in 2010 and think about what it means going forward. So here’s a look at the Yankees’ performance in April.
| Series | Start Date | # Gms | xW | aW | diff |
| Yankees at Red Sox | 4/7/2010 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| Yankees at Rays | 4/11/2010 | 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| Angels at Yankees | 4/15/2010 | 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
| Rangers at Yankees | 4/18/2010 | 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| Yankees at Athletics | 4/22/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| Yankees at Angels | 4/25/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | -0.8 |
| Yankees at Orioles | 4/29/2010 | 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | -0.1 |
| Total | 21 | 12.3 | 14.0 | 1.7 |
xW: Expected wins for this series using log 5
aW: Actual wins
diff: Difference between xW and aW. Positive means team is ahead of their projected pace
April had the potential to be a very rough month, with 15 of the first 21 games on the road, including the first six on the road against arguably two of the three best teams in baseball.
After dropping the season opener, the Yankees went on to win four of five games against Boston and Tampa Bay to jump a bit ahead of their log5 estimated pace. They then went home to win five of six against the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles and the Arlington Rangers of Texas. Next up came a six game west coast trip which saw the Yankees pick up two of three at Oakland before losing two of three to California. The Yankees then headed to Baltimore and finished out May by taking two of three.
The key series in April was the sweep of the Rangers, as it gave the Yankees an extra win over expectations.
The Yankees scored 118 runs during April, about 5.6 per game. Here’s how the hitters performed.
| Player | pa | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | so | sb | cs | gdp | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | br |
| Robinson Cano | 83 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | .390 | .434 | .740 | .492 | 19 |
| Derek Jeter | 98 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | .330 | .357 | .521 | .379 | 15 |
| Jorge Posada | 66 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .310 | .394 | .638 | .435 | 13 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 96 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .250 | .344 | .440 | .345 | 12 |
| Nick Swisher | 83 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .247 | .337 | .438 | .343 | 11 |
| Brett Gardner | 63 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | .321 | .397 | .393 | .360 | 10 |
| Curtis Granderson | 82 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .219 | .305 | .342 | .292 | 8 |
| Nick Johnson | 81 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .138 | .383 | .224 | .318 | 8 |
| Mark Teixeira | 100 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .136 | .300 | .259 | .273 | 7 |
| Marcus Thames | 18 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .625 | .667 | 1.000 | .695 | 7 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .231 | .333 | .231 | .285 | 1 |
| Randy Winn | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .077 | .077 | .077 | .069 | -1 |
| Total | 798 | 185 | 35 | 9 | 25 | 90 | 12 | 129 | 18 | 6 | 14 | .266 | .360 | .450 | .358 | 111 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
br: Total Linear weights batting runs, not position-adjusted or compared to average/replacement level
Robinson Cano obviously stormed out of the gate, as did Jorge Posada. Derek Jeter and Brett Gardner were also strong at the start. The rest of the starters were a bit underwhelming, although Marcus Thames did very well in his part-time role.
On the pitching side, it was all about the starting pitchers.
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| CC Sabathia | 5 | 5 | 34.7 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 28 | 3.38 | 3.12 | 3.46 | 8.9 |
| Andy Pettitte | 5 | 5 | 34.0 | 28 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 25 | 2.12 | 2.12 | 3.17 | 13.4 |
| A.J. Burnett | 5 | 5 | 33.3 | 31 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 20 | 2.70 | 2.43 | 3.47 | 11.0 |
| Javier Vazquez | 4 | 4 | 20.0 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 18 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 6.45 | -7.4 |
| Phil Hughes | 3 | 3 | 18.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 18 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 3.76 | 7.4 |
| Total | 22 | 22 | 140 | 115 | 55 | 53 | 10 | 54 | 6 | 109 | 3.54 | 3.41 | 3.86 | 33.3 |
rsar: runs saved above replacement level, calculated as n times league average RA minus pitcher RA time innings pitched, where n = 1.25 for starters and 1.15 for reliever.
With one notable exception, the starting pitching was outstanding to start the season. CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes combined for about 40 runs saved above replacement level in 18 games. How good is that? To put it in perspective, if you had that rate of performance from your first four starting pitchers over a full season (132 games) you’d be 30 wins above a theoretical replacement level team. If replacement level is 60 wins, you’d win 90 games if the only thing you had was these four pitchers plus replacement level everywhere else.
The bullpen wasn’t quite as happy of a tale.
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| Joba Chamberlain | 11 | 0 | 10.3 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 3.48 | 3.48 | 3.39 | 2.0 |
| Mariano Rivera | 10 | 0 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.20 | 5.2 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 6 | 0 | 8.7 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5.19 | 4.15 | 6.20 | 0.0 |
| Chan Ho Park | 3 | 0 | 5.7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6.35 | 4.76 | 6.73 | -0.7 |
| David Robertson | 7 | 0 | 5.0 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10.80 | 10.80 | 3.80 | -3.1 |
| Damaso Marte | 9 | 0 | 4.7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5.79 | 5.79 | 7.27 | -0.3 |
| Sergio Mitre | 3 | 0 | 4.3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2.08 | 2.08 | 3.66 | 1.5 |
| Boone Logan | 3 | 0 | 2.3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 4.06 | 0.4 |
| Total | 52 | 0 | 50 | 46 | 24 | 22 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 38 | 4.32 | 3.96 | 4.50 | -2.2 |
Before Joba Chamberlain became some hybrid of Juan Acevedo and Jose Veras, he was decent in April and of course Mo was Mo. The only real glaring weak spot was David Robertson, although in six innings anyone can look lousy, and his FIP was ok.
I don’t have the defensive data to look at the April split, although the team had a collective FIP of 4.03 compared to an ERA of 3.55. If you want to ascribe the entirety of that difference to the defense, they’d have been around a +10 overall. Of course, just because you need a large sample size of BABIP to ascertain a pitcher’s real skill doesn’t mean it’s not there, so it’s likely that at least some of that difference is due to the pitchers.
Anyway, unlike many recent Yankee teams, the Yankees started out well, which was nice.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
NJ.com: Carig: Yankees to call up first baseman Juan Miranda
The Yankees are planning on calling up first baseman Juan Miranda from the minor leagues.DETROIT—In hopes of adding some pop to their depleted ranks, the Yankees will call up Juan Miranda today, a person with knowledge of the situation confirmed. The move was first reported by the New York Post.
It makes sense with Nick Johnson’s career-ending injury. Miranda had an average projection of around .256/.330/.428, which is a wOBA of around .331. That’s essentially league average, which is replacement level for a DH. However, if we look at him as the left-handed half of a DH platoon, he’d have a wOBA of .311 vs. LHP and a wOBA of .338 vs. RHP using regressed platoon splits. If we add that to Thames’s estimated .342 wOBA vs. LHP, it’s a wOBA of around .339 for the platoon. That’s not close to Nick Johnson’s revised projected wOBA of .372, but it’s a hair above replacement level. For 400 PAs, the difference between Johnson and that platoon would be around 11 runs, and the difference between the platoon and a replacement level DH would be about 3 runs.
So it’s not great, but it’s not likely to be the difference between making the postseason or not.
How Good Are The 2010 Yankees Right Now (May 11)?
Heading into 2010, the Yankees looked like a team that projected to win around 96-97 games.
A lot of that was based on an offense that projected to be the best in baseball by most projection systems. Here’s how the primary starting lineup looked on a per game basis using their pre-season CAIRO projections for offense and defense.
| Player (projected) | Pos | PA | OBP | Outs | BR | RS |
| Derek Jeter | SS | 5.0 | .371 | 3.1 | 0.69 | -0.03 |
| Nick Johnson | DH | 5.0 | .412 | 2.9 | 0.73 | 0.00 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | 5.0 | .379 | 3.1 | 0.84 | 0.02 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 5.0 | .389 | 3.1 | 0.89 | -0.03 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 5.0 | .348 | 3.3 | 0.73 | 0.00 |
| Jorge Posada | C | 5.0 | .352 | 3.2 | 0.70 | -0.03 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | 4.6 | .338 | 3.0 | 0.64 | 0.04 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 4.0 | .355 | 2.6 | 0.55 | 0.00 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 4.0 | .348 | 2.6 | 0.48 | 0.02 |
| Total | 42.6 | 27.0 | 6.25 | -0.01 |
PA: # of PA in a single game
OBP:projected OBP
Outs: Outs made at the plate, equals PA times (1 minus OBP)
BR: Linear weights batting runs for listed PA
Here’s how the primary lineup has actually performed so far.
| Player (actual) | Pos | PA | OBP | Outs | BR | RS |
| Derek Jeter | SS | 5.0 | .324 | 3.4 | 0.63 | -0.10 |
| Nick Johnson | DH | 5.0 | .388 | 3.1 | 0.57 | -0.03 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | 5.0 | .336 | 3.3 | 0.61 | 0.06 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 5.0 | .381 | 3.1 | 0.73 | 0.05 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 5.0 | .406 | 3.0 | 1.01 | 0.04 |
| Jorge Posada | C | 5.0 | .365 | 3.2 | 0.84 | -0.06 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | 4.6 | .311 | 3.2 | 0.52 | 0.10 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 4.0 | .394 | 2.4 | 0.73 | -0.02 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 4.0 | .418 | 2.3 | 0.66 | 0.10 |
| Total | 42.6 | 26.9 | 6.30 | 0.14 |
In actuality, despite poor starts by several players, the primary starting lineup has actually exceeded those projections slightly so far this season, with the better than expected play by Robinson Cano, Jorge Posada and Nick Swisher making up for the poorer than expected play by Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter. They’ve also been better defensively thanks to better than expected play by Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano primarily.
The problem is that the desired primary starting lineup is not the lineup that the Yankees can run out there right now with Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson on the shelf. While Granderson should be back relatively soon, Nick Johnson plus wrist injury is not something I’d expect a speedy return from.
We also have more information after 31 games which we can use to revise our pre-season projections somewhat, although the sample size is still small enough that the pre-season projections should still be the bulk of what we expect going forward.
If we assume that Joe Girardi has finally figured out that Marcus Thames in LF is not an option, here’s how the Yankees’ primary lineup at this point in time would project going forward.
| Player (revised projection) | Pos | PA | OBP | Outs | BR | RS |
| Derek Jeter | SS | 5.0 | .366 | 3.2 | 0.68 | -0.03 |
| Brett Gardner | CF | 5.0 | .355 | 3.2 | 0.62 | 0.08 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | 5.0 | .375 | 3.1 | 0.82 | 0.03 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 5.0 | .388 | 3.1 | 0.87 | -0.02 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 5.0 | .354 | 3.2 | 0.76 | 0.00 |
| Jorge Posada | C | 4.8 | .353 | 3.1 | 0.69 | -0.04 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 4.0 | .359 | 2.6 | 0.57 | 0.00 |
| Marcus Thames | DH | 4.0 | .300 | 2.8 | 0.49 | 0.00 |
| Randy Winn | LF | 4.0 | .314 | 2.7 | 0.42 | 0.06 |
| Total | 41.8 | 27.0 | 5.92 | 0.07 |
If we use the Yankees’ current RA against of 3.88 with the original projected starting lineup, we get a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .715, or 116 wins. If you instead use the revised projections of the current starting lineup, you get a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .700. That’s 113 wins. The problem here is this alignment projects that Gardner in CF and Winn in LF is a better defensive alignment than Gardner in LF and Granderson in CF, and I think that’s overrating Winn and underrating Gardner in LF. I don’t think it’s more than a wash, which makes it more like a .693/112 win team. Even factoring that in, over a subset of n games where n is only a portion of 162 games, that’s not really that big of a difference. Maybe a win or two? If Nick Johnson is out for the year, a Juan Miranda/Thames DH platoon is probably a bit better than straight Thames as well.
Now obviously, you’re not going to get 162 games out of your starting lineup, so we have to temper those 100+ win estimates down to a more reasonable estimate, but I’m just looking at the delta for now. We also need to assume that moving some of the bench guys to the starting lineup also weakens the bench somewhat. We also can’t assume the Yankees will maintain a 3.88 RA going forward. I don’t have time to do a detailed breakdown of the pitching, but I’ll summarize it. Right now I’d project them to end the season at 709 runs allowed, an overall RA against of 4.38, which means an RA of around 4.53 going forward. That’s assuming some regression by the starters, which is bad for four of the five, but good for the fifth starter who will not be named. It’s also based on improvement by the bullpen, and it’s an overall improvement of about 20 runs from their pre-season runs allowed projection. If that’s the case, the primary lineup would be more like a 108 win team, with the currently revised and re-projected lineup being more like a 104 win team, again with the caveat that we need to temper that down to account for the bench and possible future injuries.
Right now, the Yankees are still about five wins ahead of their original projected pace according to my Monte Carlo simulator. They are projected at 101.6 wins, and with a 48.4% chance at the division and a 79.7% chance at the postseason, which is the best probability of any team. Actually, here’s the whole list.
| Team | W | pW | w+/- | ppo% | opo% |
| Yankees | 101.6 | 96.1 | 5.5 | 79.7% | 63.0% |
| Cardinals | 95.3 | 90.6 | 4.7 | 72.8% | 50.9% |
| Rays | 99.4 | 91.2 | 8.1 | 72.4% | 46.1% |
| Phillies | 94.5 | 89.7 | 4.8 | 67.2% | 48.0% |
| Twins | 89.8 | 83.1 | 6.7 | 61.0% | 34.8% |
| Rangers | 86.9 | 84.4 | 2.5 | 52.0% | 38.9% |
| Giants | 86.2 | 81.1 | 5.1 | 37.9% | 23.3% |
| Red Sox | 88.8 | 92.9 | -4.1 | 31.6% | 53.0% |
| Rockies | 84.1 | 83.8 | 0.3 | 29.4% | 30.3% |
| Athletics | 81.7 | 79.2 | 2.5 | 28.6% | 23.8% |
| Braves | 84.5 | 88.3 | -3.8 | 28.0% | 42.9% |
| Padres | 82.5 | 75.9 | 6.6 | 26.0% | 13.2% |
| Tigers | 81.7 | 77.9 | 3.8 | 25.1% | 19.9% |
| Dodgers | 82.0 | 86.3 | -4.3 | 23.7% | 38.5% |
| Brewers | 81.6 | 81.6 | 0.0 | 21.2% | 23.5% |
| Reds | 81.6 | 80.6 | 1.0 | 20.0% | 21.3% |
| Mets | 80.5 | 76.1 | 4.4 | 18.4% | 13.0% |
| Cubs | 80.2 | 83.1 | -2.9 | 17.7% | 27.2% |
| Mariners | 76.0 | 81.4 | -5.4 | 13.6% | 29.4% |
| Nationals | 78.0 | 74.8 | 3.2 | 12.9% | 11.1% |
| Angels | 74.3 | 78.0 | -3.7 | 12.5% | 21.6% |
| Marlins | 77.6 | 80.0 | -2.4 | 11.6% | 19.3% |
| White Sox | 75.4 | 79.8 | -4.4 | 11.3% | 24.8% |
| Diamondbacks | 76.7 | 82.2 | -5.5 | 10.3% | 25.6% |
| Indians | 74.0 | 79.9 | -5.9 | 7.5% | 25.4% |
| Royals | 67.8 | 71.5 | -3.7 | 3.0% | 9.3% |
| Pirates | 68.5 | 72.3 | -3.8 | 2.4% | 7.6% |
| Blue Jays | 70.6 | 65.1 | 5.5 | 1.4% | 1.9% |
| Orioles | 66.7 | 74.6 | -7.9 | 0.6% | 8.3% |
| Astros | 61.5 | 68.8 | -7.3 | 0.5% | 4.4% |
pW: Re-projected wins
opW: Original projected wins
pW+/-:pW - opW
So I guess my initial assertion that the Yankees at this moment aren’t as good as they projected to be is technically true, but not significantly so. Apparently a two-game losing streak doesn’t mean it’s time to panic.
Friday, May 7, 2010
Yankees.com: Six-run sixth powers Yankees past Boston
BOSTON—Nick Swisher belted a three-run homer and Josh Beckett came unhinged in a wild six-run sixth inning as the Yankees pounded their way to a 10-3 victory over the Red Sox on Friday at Fenway Park.
Swisher swatted a hanging breaking ball into the center-field camera stand for his sixth homer of the year in the fourth, giving New York the jump on Beckett, but it could have had no idea how quickly it would unravel for the hard-throwing righty.
The sixth-inning implosion would force a yellow “6” to be slotted into the Green Monster, as Beckett dusted Francisco Cervelli for a run-scoring walk, Randy Winn logged an RBI single and Derek Jeter was hit in the No. 2 on his back to force in another run.
Beckett allowed run-scoring hits to Marcus Thames and Mark Teixeira before Red Sox manager Terry Francona finally brought out the hook. Alex Rodriguez logged a sacrifice fly before the carnage was complete against Beckett, who allowed nine runs on nine hits in 5 1/3 innings.
The hearty cushion provided plenty of breathing room for Phil Hughes, who remained undefeated in his past nine starts dating back to last season. Hughes completed seven strong innings, limiting the Red Sox to a pair of David Ortiz RBIs—a fourth-inning sacrifice fly and a run-scoring single in the sixth.
I thought I could go out for dinner and some Dos Equis and if I was back by midnight I could catch the last six innings, but to my surprise the game was over.
The win was good, but this wasn’t.
Cano, Johnson exit with injuries.
I’d expect Cano to be ok in a few days, but Johnson I’m expecting is done for the year. Are we ready for Juan Miranda, DH?
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Yankee WAR Pie Chart Through Games of May 5, 2010
At 19-8, the Yankees have played at a pace that the mighty 1998 Yankees would have been proud of. More impressively, they were able to do it through what on paper looked like the hardest part of their schedule, although our estimates of the strength of the opposition may change as we move through the season.
So why have the Yankees been so good so far? It’s Pie Chart time!
WAR stands for wins above replacement. For position players it consists of batting runs above position-adjusted replacement level plus defense saved compared to average using an average of zone rating and UZR. For pitchers it’s just runs saved compared to a a replacement level pitcher using runs allowed per nine. These are context-neutral values, so they aren’t going to necessarily line up with actual game values once you factor in context.
Negative values don’t work with pie charts, so here’s the full list:
| Player | WAR |
| Andy Pettitte | 1.5 |
| Robinson Cano | 1.5 |
| A.J. Burnett | 1.4 |
| CC Sabathia | 1.2 |
| Phil Hughes | 1.1 |
| Brett Gardner | 0.9 |
| Jorge Posada | 0.7 |
| Nick Swisher | 0.7 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 0.6 |
| Mariano Rivera | 0.5 |
| Curtis Granderson | 0.4 |
| Derek Jeter | 0.4 |
| Marcus Thames | 0.4 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 0.3 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 0.3 |
| Sergio Mitre | 0.2 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 0.1 |
| Boone Logan | 0.1 |
| Nick Johnson | 0.0 |
| Damaso Marte | 0.0 |
| Greg Golson | 0.0 |
| Mark Teixeira | 0.0 |
| Chan Ho Park | -0.1 |
| Randy Winn | -0.1 |
| Mark Melancon | -0.2 |
| Ramiro Pena | -0.2 |
| David Robertson | -0.6 |
| Javier Vazquez | -1.1 |
As a team, the Yankees have been 10.2 wins above replacement level. I set replacement level at around 50 wins per 162 games, so over 27 games a replacement level team would win about 8.3 games. So those eight wins plus the 10.2 WAR = 18.5 wins, which is essentially what the Yankees have actually done.
Random fun with small sample sizes:
- Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes have combined for more than half of the team WAR at 5.3.
- Robinson Cano has been more valuable Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira COMBINED.
- TSBG = 0.9 WAR. A-Rod + Jeter + Teixeira = 0.9 WAR.
- The Yankee bullpen has combined for 0.4 WAR. Mariano Rivera has been worth 0.5 WAR.
Anyway, as always, remember that sample size is an issue, and that we should still expect players to play closer to how they projected to play going forward than how they’ve done so far this year. However, what’s happened so far can inform our going forward projections, so we shouldn’t ignore that either.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Yankees.com: Yankees hang on for fourth straight win
NEW YORK—Nick Johnson and Nick Swisher belted solo homers, while Andy Pettitte hurled five sharp innings before exiting as the Yankees defeated the Orioles, 7-5, completing a series sweep at Yankee Stadium.
Pettitte limited the Orioles to one run on six hits, getting the benefit of three double-play grounders, but yielded the mound duties to long reliever Sergio Mitre for the sixth inning.
Permitting just a bases-loaded walk to Nolan Reimold in the fourth, Pettitte owns his lowest career ERA (2.08) through six starts of any season and is now undefeated in his past nine starts against Baltimore.
Another win, but another potential injury scare, this time with Andy Pettitte. Nick Johnson had his best game of the year, raising his batting average by .037 points, and his SLG by .09. The bullpen, well, let’s not go there. Although I will say that I don’t think Girardi was playing platoon percentages when he made his pitching changes, I think he was trying to get some of the relievers some work in what seemed like a low leverage situation at the time. That they didn’t execute isn’t his fault.
Andy Pettitte Update: Chad Jennings is reporting that:
This is the latest from the Yankees regarding Andy Pettitte:
MRI results, taken today at NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital, on Andy Pettitte, revealed mild inflammation of his left elbow. It will be treated conservatively and will be evaluated on a daily basis at this point.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Gaps Between Projected and Actual 2010 wOBA through April 29*
| Rank | player | team | pa | a_woba | p_woba | diff |
| 1 | Colby Rasmus | Cardinals | 78 | .509 | .336 | 11.7 |
| 2 | Robinson Cano | Yankees | 90 | .504 | .362 | 11.1 |
| 3 | Kelly Johnson | Diamondbacks | 89 | .483 | .345 | 10.7 |
| 4 | Vernon Wells | Blue Jays | 97 | .440 | .325 | 9.7 |
| 5 | Justin Morneau | Twins | 91 | .477 | .361 | 9.1 |
| 6 | Paul Konerko | White Sox | 88 | .458 | .349 | 8.4 |
| 7 | Ivan Rodriguez | Nationals | 64 | .408 | .271 | 7.6 |
| 8 | Nelson Cruz | Rangers | 74 | .475 | .360 | 7.4 |
| 9 | Casey McGehee | Brewers | 90 | .414 | .320 | 7.3 |
| 10 | Austin Jackson | Tigers | 104 | .380 | .299 | 7.2 |
| 11 | Alex Gonzalez | Blue Jays | 98 | .362 | .280 | 7.0 |
| 12 | Ty Wigginton | Orioles | 72 | .441 | .332 | 6.8 |
| 13 | Martin Prado | Braves | 98 | .404 | .331 | 6.2 |
| 14 | Andruw Jones | White Sox | 66 | .426 | .318 | 6.2 |
| 15 | Franklin Gutierrez | Mariners | 93 | .393 | .318 | 6.1 |
| 16 | Kosuke Fukudome | Cubs | 74 | .424 | .330 | 6.0 |
| 17 | Carl Crawford | Rays | 96 | .406 | .334 | 6.0 |
| 18 | Jose Guillen | Royals | 94 | .388 | .316 | 5.9 |
| 19 | Daric Barton | Athletics | 95 | .404 | .333 | 5.8 |
| 20 | Michael Bourn | Astros | 82 | .379 | .300 | 5.6 |
| 21 | Pablo Sandoval | Giants | 93 | .443 | .374 | 5.6 |
| 22 | Geovany Soto | Cubs | 66 | .443 | .351 | 5.2 |
| 23 | Nyjer Morgan | Nationals | 94 | .362 | .301 | 5.0 |
| 24 | Jorge Posada | Yankees | 65 | .438 | .351 | 4.9 |
| 25 | Andy LaRoche | Pirates | 61 | .415 | .325 | 4.7 |
| 26 | Josh Willingham | Nationals | 92 | .409 | .350 | 4.7 |
| 27 | Bengie Molina | Giants | 68 | .378 | .299 | 4.7 |
| 28 | Jim Edmonds | Brewers | 66 | .382 | .304 | 4.5 |
| 29 | Adrian Gonzalez | Padres | 94 | .423 | .370 | 4.4 |
| 30 | Ryan Braun | Brewers | 103 | .434 | .385 | 4.4 |
| 31 | Andre Ethier | Dodgers | 82 | .422 | .364 | 4.2 |
| 32 | Elvis Andrus | Rangers | 85 | .342 | .286 | 4.1 |
| 33 | Juan Uribe | Giants | 69 | .370 | .303 | 4.0 |
| 34 | Magglio Ordonez | Tigers | 102 | .405 | .360 | 3.9 |
| 35 | Shin-Soo Choo | Indians | 93 | .431 | .383 | 3.9 |
| 36 | Jayson Werth | Phillies | 88 | .411 | .361 | 3.9 |
| 37 | Cliff Pennington | Athletics | 86 | .346 | .294 | 3.9 |
| 38 | Jeff Francoeur | Mets | 90 | .356 | .308 | 3.8 |
| 39 | Scott Podsednik | Royals | 88 | .368 | .319 | 3.8 |
| 40 | Adam LaRoche | Diamondbacks | 78 | .416 | .361 | 3.7 |
| 41 | Jorge Cantu | Marlins | 94 | .369 | .324 | 3.7 |
| 42 | Marlon Byrd | Cubs | 91 | .378 | .334 | 3.5 |
| 43 | Evan Longoria | Rays | 96 | .409 | .367 | 3.5 |
| 44 | Chase Utley | Phillies | 98 | .426 | .386 | 3.4 |
| 45 | Chase Headley | Padres | 93 | .360 | .318 | 3.4 |
| 46 | Ryan Doumit | Pirates | 79 | .378 | .329 | 3.4 |
| 47 | Carlos Gonzalez | Rockies | 79 | .390 | .343 | 3.2 |
| 48 | Rickie Weeks | Brewers | 109 | .373 | .339 | 3.2 |
| 49 | David DeJesus | Royals | 99 | .372 | .335 | 3.2 |
| 50 | Casey Blake | Dodgers | 80 | .372 | .326 | 3.2 |
| 51 | Rafael Furcal | Dodgers | 90 | .355 | .315 | 3.2 |
| 52 | Dan Uggla | Marlins | 94 | .385 | .346 | 3.2 |
| 53 | Brandon Inge | Tigers | 96 | .342 | .304 | 3.1 |
| 54 | Adam Rosales | Athletics | 60 | .369 | .310 | 3.1 |
| 55 | Kurt Suzuki | Athletics | 67 | .365 | .313 | 3.0 |
| 56 | Miguel Cabrera | Tigers | 105 | .435 | .402 | 3.0 |
| 57 | Jason Heyward | Braves | 85 | .372 | .332 | 3.0 |
| 58 | B.J. Upton | Rays | 91 | .372 | .335 | 2.9 |
| 59 | Carlos Gomez | Brewers | 70 | .336 | .288 | 2.9 |
| 60 | Ryan Theriot | Cubs | 104 | .343 | .311 | 2.9 |
| 61 | Johnny Damon | Tigers | 97 | .372 | .339 | 2.8 |
| 62 | David Wright | Mets | 96 | .406 | .373 | 2.7 |
| 63 | Matt Kemp | Dodgers | 104 | .382 | .352 | 2.7 |
| 64 | David Freese | Cardinals | 72 | .361 | .318 | 2.7 |
| 65 | Mark Teahen | White Sox | 66 | .365 | .318 | 2.7 |
| 66 | Stephen Drew | Diamondbacks | 88 | .367 | .332 | 2.7 |
| 67 | Scott Rolen | Reds | 75 | .373 | .334 | 2.5 |
| 68 | Chris Snyder | Diamondbacks | 62 | .377 | .331 | 2.5 |
| 69 | Jeff Keppinger | Astros | 69 | .348 | .307 | 2.4 |
| 70 | Ian Stewart | Rockies | 88 | .390 | .358 | 2.4 |
| 71 | Yuniesky Betancourt | Royals | 86 | .325 | .293 | 2.4 |
| 72 | Edgar Renteria | Giants | 82 | .341 | .307 | 2.4 |
| 73 | Carlos Ruiz | Phillies | 66 | .359 | .318 | 2.4 |
| 74 | Torii Hunter | Angels | 93 | .378 | .350 | 2.3 |
| 75 | Alberto Callaspo | Royals | 92 | .368 | .341 | 2.2 |
| 76 | Jason Kendall | Royals | 85 | .322 | .292 | 2.2 |
| 77 | Ryan Ludwick | Cardinals | 97 | .374 | .348 | 2.1 |
| 78 | Kendry Morales | Angels | 91 | .379 | .352 | 2.1 |
| 79 | Casey Kotchman | Mariners | 81 | .358 | .329 | 2.0 |
| 80 | Gaby Sanchez | Marlins | 75 | .377 | .349 | 1.9 |
| 81 | Josh Hamilton | Rangers | 89 | .376 | .353 | 1.8 |
| 82 | Adam Lind | Blue Jays | 98 | .373 | .354 | 1.7 |
| 83 | Brett Gardner | Yankees | 70 | .346 | .319 | 1.6 |
| 84 | Placido Polanco | Phillies | 90 | .343 | .322 | 1.6 |
| 85 | David Eckstein | Padres | 82 | .304 | .282 | 1.6 |
| 86 | Luis Castillo | Mets | 73 | .322 | .297 | 1.6 |
| 87 | Vladimir Guerrero | Rangers | 89 | .391 | .372 | 1.4 |
| 88 | Carlos Guillen | Tigers | 69 | .371 | .347 | 1.4 |
| 89 | Albert Pujols | Cardinals | 96 | .449 | .432 | 1.4 |
| 90 | Blake DeWitt | Dodgers | 64 | .331 | .306 | 1.4 |
| 91 | Mark Reynolds | Diamondbacks | 92 | .378 | .361 | 1.3 |
| 92 | Hideki Matsui | Angels | 96 | .362 | .347 | 1.3 |
| 93 | Ichiro Suzuki | Mariners | 98 | .347 | .332 | 1.3 |
| 94 | Ian Desmond | Nationals | 71 | .311 | .291 | 1.2 |
| 95 | Jose Bautista | Blue Jays | 101 | .334 | .320 | 1.2 |
| 96 | Michael Cuddyer | Twins | 99 | .351 | .338 | 1.2 |
| 97 | Corey Hart | Brewers | 67 | .351 | .333 | 1.1 |
| 98 | Russell Martin | Dodgers | 80 | .356 | .342 | 1.0 |
| 99 | Orlando Hudson | Twins | 101 | .336 | .325 | 1.0 |
| 100 | Will Venable | Padres | 78 | .334 | .322 | 0.8 |
| 101 | Alcides Escobar | Brewers | 81 | .307 | .297 | 0.7 |
| 102 | Bobby Abreu | Angels | 97 | .358 | .350 | 0.7 |
| 103 | Cesar Izturis | Orioles | 65 | .291 | .279 | 0.7 |
| 104 | Alfonso Soriano | Cubs | 77 | .349 | .340 | 0.6 |
| 105 | Nick Swisher | Yankees | 83 | .359 | .350 | 0.6 |
| 106 | Ryan Sweeney | Athletics | 96 | .331 | .323 | 0.6 |
| 107 | Howie Kendrick | Angels | 84 | .341 | .334 | 0.6 |
| 108 | Jason Bay | Mets | 93 | .367 | .361 | 0.5 |
| 109 | Alex Rios | White Sox | 85 | .337 | .331 | 0.4 |
| 110 | Adrian Beltre | Red Sox | 81 | .332 | .326 | 0.4 |
| 111 | Brian McCann | Braves | 78 | .365 | .359 | 0.3 |
| 112 | Luis Valbuena | Indians | 61 | .311 | .306 | 0.3 |
| 113 | John Baker | Marlins | 62 | .325 | .320 | 0.3 |
| 114 | Yadier Molina | Cardinals | 84 | .318 | .315 | 0.2 |
| 115 | Marco Scutaro | Red Sox | 95 | .333 | .331 | 0.1 |
| 116 | Miguel Tejada | Orioles | 77 | .333 | .332 | 0.1 |
| 117 | Joey Votto | Reds | 95 | .387 | .386 | 0.0 |
| 118 | Jason Bartlett | Rays | 98 | .327 | .327 | 0.0 |
| 119 | Garrett Jones | Pirates | 98 | .330 | .331 | -0.1 |
| 120 | Erick Aybar | Angels | 92 | .310 | .313 | -0.2 |
| 121 | Dustin Pedroia | Red Sox | 103 | .362 | .364 | -0.2 |
| 122 | Scott Sizemore | Tigers | 66 | .302 | .307 | -0.3 |
| 123 | Mike Fontenot | Cubs | 60 | .315 | .322 | -0.4 |
| 124 | Asdrubal Cabrera | Indians | 92 | .321 | .327 | -0.4 |
| 125 | John Buck | Blue Jays | 67 | .292 | .300 | -0.5 |
| 126 | Andrew McCutchen | Pirates | 101 | .342 | .348 | -0.5 |
| 127 | Joe Mauer | Twins | 91 | .391 | .398 | -0.6 |
| 128 | Carlos Pena | Rays | 91 | .374 | .382 | -0.6 |
| 129 | Pat Burrell | Rays | 64 | .324 | .335 | -0.6 |
| 130 | Jack Wilson | Mariners | 65 | .273 | .287 | -0.8 |
| 131 | Adam Dunn | Nationals | 92 | .363 | .372 | -0.8 |
| 132 | Derek Jeter | Yankees | 95 | .343 | .352 | -0.8 |
| 133 | Dexter Fowler | Rockies | 89 | .332 | .343 | -0.8 |
| 134 | Nick Markakis | Orioles | 99 | .359 | .369 | -0.9 |
| 135 | Jay Bruce | Reds | 86 | .335 | .347 | -0.9 |
| 136 | Troy Tulowitzki | Rockies | 96 | .358 | .370 | -1.0 |
| 137 | Pedro Feliz | Astros | 76 | .275 | .291 | -1.1 |
| 138 | Juan Rivera | Angels | 83 | .304 | .319 | -1.1 |
| 139 | Chipper Jones | Braves | 73 | .367 | .385 | -1.1 |
| 140 | Aubrey Huff | Giants | 86 | .306 | .322 | -1.2 |
| 141 | Kevin Youkilis | Red Sox | 98 | .372 | .388 | -1.4 |
| 142 | Adam Kennedy | Nationals | 64 | .274 | .299 | -1.4 |
| 143 | Rick Ankiel | Royals | 67 | .306 | .331 | -1.4 |
| 144 | Delmon Young | Twins | 67 | .293 | .318 | -1.4 |
| 145 | Cristian Guzman | Nationals | 83 | .288 | .311 | -1.7 |
| 146 | Cameron Maybin | Marlins | 92 | .296 | .317 | -1.7 |
| 147 | Kyle Blanks | Padres | 79 | .305 | .330 | -1.7 |
| 148 | Gregg Zaun | Brewers | 67 | .271 | .303 | -1.9 |
| 149 | Jhonny Peralta | Indians | 79 | .295 | .323 | -2.0 |
| 150 | Brandon Phillips | Reds | 96 | .300 | .324 | -2.0 |
| 151 | Angel Pagan | Mets | 77 | .284 | .314 | -2.0 |
| 152 | Orlando Cabrera | Reds | 88 | .270 | .298 | -2.1 |
| 153 | J.J. Hardy | Twins | 85 | .288 | .318 | -2.2 |
| 154 | Billy Butler | Royals | 96 | .351 | .378 | -2.3 |
| 155 | Rod Barajas | Mets | 67 | .245 | .286 | -2.4 |
| 156 | Ryan Howard | Phillies | 96 | .352 | .382 | -2.5 |
| 157 | Mark DeRosa | Giants | 73 | .295 | .335 | -2.5 |
| 158 | Curtis Granderson | Yankees | 83 | .311 | .346 | -2.5 |
| 159 | Milton Bradley | Mariners | 62 | .319 | .367 | -2.6 |
| 160 | Raul Ibanez | Phillies | 81 | .314 | .351 | -2.6 |
| 161 | Ronny Cedeno | Pirates | 78 | .243 | .281 | -2.6 |
| 162 | Jason Kubel | Twins | 83 | .315 | .352 | -2.7 |
| 163 | Hanley Ramirez | Marlins | 96 | .364 | .397 | -2.7 |
| 164 | Matt Holliday | Cardinals | 91 | .348 | .384 | -2.8 |
| 165 | Cody Ross | Marlins | 83 | .296 | .335 | -2.9 |
| 166 | Eric Chavez | Athletics | 72 | .253 | .300 | -2.9 |
| 167 | Akinori Iwamura | Pirates | 92 | .290 | .327 | -2.9 |
| 168 | Ben Zobrist | Rays | 94 | .314 | .352 | -3.2 |
| 169 | Carlos Quentin | White Sox | 87 | .323 | .364 | -3.2 |
| 170 | Chone Figgins | Mariners | 95 | .292 | .332 | -3.3 |
| 171 | Jose Reyes | Mets | 83 | .285 | .331 | -3.4 |
| 172 | Drew Stubbs | Reds | 79 | .283 | .332 | -3.4 |
| 173 | Everth Cabrera | Padres | 73 | .255 | .309 | -3.4 |
| 174 | Jerry Hairston | Padres | 66 | .221 | .281 | -3.4 |
| 175 | Kevin Kouzmanoff | Athletics | 94 | .273 | .317 | -3.6 |
| 176 | Todd Helton | Rockies | 80 | .321 | .373 | -3.6 |
| 177 | Skip Schumaker | Cardinals | 93 | .276 | .321 | -3.7 |
| 178 | Matt Wieters | Orioles | 85 | .321 | .372 | -3.8 |
| 179 | Jonny Gomes | Reds | 63 | .266 | .335 | -3.8 |
| 180 | Travis Snider | Blue Jays | 79 | .266 | .323 | -3.9 |
| 181 | James Loney | Dodgers | 97 | .294 | .340 | -3.9 |
| 182 | Nick Johnson | Yankees | 78 | .318 | .376 | -4.0 |
| 183 | Shane Victorino | Phillies | 95 | .281 | .330 | -4.1 |
| 184 | Lastings Milledge | Pirates | 88 | .263 | .316 | -4.1 |
| 185 | Brendan Ryan | Cardinals | 72 | .229 | .297 | -4.2 |
| 186 | Jeff Clement | Pirates | 69 | .264 | .337 | -4.4 |
| 187 | Travis Hafner | Indians | 77 | .289 | .355 | -4.4 |
| 188 | Nolan Reimold | Orioles | 67 | .281 | .356 | -4.4 |
| 189 | Troy Glaus | Braves | 80 | .278 | .343 | -4.5 |
| 190 | Garrett Atkins | Orioles | 65 | .251 | .332 | -4.6 |
| 191 | Denard Span | Twins | 104 | .302 | .352 | -4.6 |
| 192 | Rajai Davis | Athletics | 87 | .248 | .309 | -4.7 |
| 193 | Prince Fielder | Brewers | 101 | .351 | .406 | -4.8 |
| 194 | Luke Scott | Orioles | 72 | .285 | .362 | -4.8 |
| 195 | Justin Upton | Diamondbacks | 97 | .306 | .364 | -4.9 |
| 196 | Alexei Ramirez | White Sox | 73 | .240 | .318 | -4.9 |
| 197 | Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | 94 | .338 | .399 | -5.0 |
| 198 | Nate McLouth | Braves | 65 | .248 | .338 | -5.1 |
| 199 | Michael Young | Rangers | 97 | .280 | .341 | -5.1 |
| 200 | Lyle Overbay | Blue Jays | 93 | .266 | .334 | -5.5 |
| 201 | Melky Cabrera | Braves | 83 | .238 | .315 | -5.5 |
| 202 | Yunel Escobar | Braves | 88 | .263 | .336 | -5.6 |
| 203 | Derrek Lee | Cubs | 99 | .307 | .373 | -5.7 |
| 204 | Gordon Beckham | White Sox | 87 | .287 | .364 | -5.9 |
| 205 | Matt LaPorta | Indians | 62 | .243 | .354 | -6.0 |
| 206 | Victor Martinez | Red Sox | 83 | .287 | .371 | -6.1 |
| 207 | Brandon Wood | Angels | 66 | .206 | .314 | -6.2 |
| 208 | A.J. Pierzynski | White Sox | 69 | .206 | .310 | -6.2 |
| 209 | Juan Pierre | White Sox | 92 | .222 | .303 | -6.5 |
| 210 | Hunter Pence | Astros | 81 | .252 | .348 | -6.8 |
| 211 | Julio Borbon | Rangers | 69 | .210 | .327 | -7.0 |
| 212 | Adam Jones | Orioles | 101 | .253 | .337 | -7.4 |
| 213 | Grady Sizemore | Indians | 82 | .257 | .367 | -7.8 |
| 214 | J.D. Drew | Red Sox | 85 | .267 | .375 | -8.0 |
| 215 | Mark Teixeira | Yankees | 96 | .267 | .390 | -10.3 |
| 216 | Carlos Lee | Astros | 82 | .196 | .343 | -10.5 |
| 217 | Chris Coghlan | Marlins | 82 | .189 | .344 | -11.0 |
| 218 | Aramis Ramirez | Cubs | 97 | .224 | .381 | -13.2 |
a_woba: 2010 actual weighted on-base average.
p_woba: Average projected wOBA using CHONE, Marcel, Oliver, PECOTA, ZiPS and CAIRO
diff: Difference in run value (a_woba - p_woba) divided by 1.15 times PA
*minimum of 60 PA
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Yankee Run Values Through Games of April 28, 2010
As promised, here’s how the Yankees look in terms of YTD performance.
| Player | Team | Lg | Pos | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | GDP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAA | BRAR | zRS | uRS | aRS | WAR |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | AL | 2B | 86 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | .390 | .430 | .701 | .468 | 19 | 9 | 12 | -2 | -3 | -2 | 0.9 |
| Jorge Posada | Yankees | AL | C | 65 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .316 | .400 | .649 | .438 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0.8 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 90 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .260 | .356 | .455 | .353 | 12 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | AL | RF | 78 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .284 | .385 | .493 | .382 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | AL | CF | 79 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | .243 | .329 | .414 | .327 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | AL | LF | 66 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | .310 | .394 | .362 | .348 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 0.4 |
| Francisco Cervelli | Yankees | AL | C | 21 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .444 | .524 | .500 | .462 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Marcus Thames | Yankees | AL | LF | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .563 | .857 | .591 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | -2 | -2 | 0.2 |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | AL | SS | 90 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .306 | .333 | .459 | .342 | 12 | 1 | 5 | -5 | -2 | -4 | 0.2 |
| Ramiro Pena | Yankees | AL | SS | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .111 | .111 | .111 | .100 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Nick Johnson | Yankees | AL | 1B | 78 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .143 | .385 | .232 | .318 | 8 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | AL | 1B | 92 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .133 | .293 | .253 | .265 | 7 | -4 | -3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -0.2 |
| Randy Winn | Yankees | AL | RF | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .077 | .077 | .077 | .069 | -1 | -2 | -2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -0.3 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs, not position adjusted
BRAA: Batting runs above an average player, not position-adjusted
BRAR: Batting runs above a replacement level player, position-adjusted
zRS: Runs saved compared to an average defender using zone rating:
uRS: Runs saved compared to an average defender using UZR:
aRS: Average of zRS and uRS
WAR: Wins above replacement, calculated as (BRAR + aRS) divided by 10
Robinson Cano’s been a monster offensively this season. Here are the AL leaders to this point.
Vernon Wells: 13.5 BRAR
Robinson Cano: 11.7 BRAR
Nelson Cruz: 11.1 BRAR
Justin Morneau: 10.2 BRAR
Miguel Cabrera: 9.5 BRAR
Evan Longoria: 8.8 BRAR
Jorge Posada: 8.7 BRAR
Ty Wigginton: 8.7 BRAR
Joe Mauer: 8.6 BRAR
Alex Gonzalez: 8.5 BRAR
Posada sneaks into this list too.
Unfortunately , Cano’s defense as reflected by both zone rating and UZR to this point takes away some of his value, although we have the standard caveats about the reliability of fielding metrics and the small sample size of 20 games that we need to take into account.
Hopefully Posada won’t need to miss too much time after being hit in the knee last night.
Would you be surprised if I told you that Cano has not been the most valuable Yankee this year?
| Player | Team | Lg | Role | G | GS | IP | TBF | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAR | WAR |
| Andy Pettitte | Yankees | AL | SP | 4 | 4 | 28.0 | 109 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 22 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 2.70 | 10.5 | 13.4 | 8.0 | 1.3 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | AL | SP | 5 | 5 | 34.7 | 135 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 28 | 3.38 | 3.12 | 3.46 | 4.9 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 0.8 |
| Phil Hughes | Yankees | AL | SP | 3 | 3 | 18.0 | 69 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 3.76 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| A.J. Burnett | Yankees | AL | SP | 4 | 4 | 25.3 | 107 | 28 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 3.55 | 3.20 | 3.75 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 0.6 |
| Mariano Rivera | Yankees | AL | RP | 8 | 0 | 7.0 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.34 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| Joba Chamberlain | Yankees | AL | RP | 10 | 0 | 9.7 | 41 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 3.72 | 3.72 | 3.41 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 0.1 |
| Sergio Mitre | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 4.3 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2.08 | 2.08 | 3.66 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Boone Logan | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 2.3 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 4.06 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Damaso Marte | Yankees | AL | RP | 8 | 0 | 4.3 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6.23 | 6.23 | 7.58 | -1.0 | -0.6 | -1.1 | -0.1 |
| Alfredo Aceves | Yankees | AL | RP | 5 | 0 | 7.7 | 36 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5.87 | 4.70 | 6.20 | -1.4 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.1 |
| Chan Ho Park | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 5.7 | 23 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6.35 | 4.76 | 6.73 | -1.3 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -0.1 |
| David Robertson | Yankees | AL | RP | 7 | 0 | 5.0 | 26 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10.80 | 10.80 | 3.80 | -3.6 | -3.2 | 0.8 | -0.3 |
| Javier Vazquez | Yankees | AL | SP | 4 | 4 | 20.0 | 93 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 6.45 | -9.7 | -7.6 | -2.7 | -0.8 |
TBF: Total batters faced
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above an average pitcher of the same role over the same # of innings, using RA.
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher (1.2 times average RA) of the same role over the same # of innings
FRSAR: RSAR if we use FIP instead of actual RA
WAR: Wins above replacement (RSAR divided by 10)
Battlecat just keeps on keeping on.
Here’s the whole team sorted by WAR.
| Rank | Player | WAR |
| 1 | Andy Pettitte | 1.3 |
| 2 | Robinson Cano | 0.9 |
| 3 | CC Sabathia | 0.8 |
| 4 | Jorge Posada | 0.8 |
| 5 | Phil Hughes | 0.7 |
| 6 | A.J. Burnett | 0.6 |
| 7 | Alex Rodriguez | 0.5 |
| 8 | Nick Swisher | 0.5 |
| 9 | Curtis Granderson | 0.5 |
| 10 | Mariano Rivera | 0.4 |
| 11 | Brett Gardner | 0.4 |
| 12 | Francisco Cervelli | 0.3 |
| 13 | Marcus Thames | 0.2 |
| 14 | Derek Jeter | 0.2 |
| 15 | Joba Chamberlain | 0.1 |
| 16 | Sergio Mitre | 0.1 |
| 17 | Boone Logan | 0.0 |
| 18 | Player | 0.0 |
| 19 | Ramiro Pena | 0.0 |
| 20 | Damaso Marte | -0.1 |
| 21 | Alfredo Aceves | -0.1 |
| 22 | Chan Ho Park | -0.1 |
| 23 | Nick Johnson | -0.1 |
| 24 | Mark Teixeira | -0.2 |
| 25 | Randy Winn | -0.3 |
| 26 | David Robertson | -0.3 |
| 27 | Javier Vazquez | -0.8 |
You know what’d be cool? If Mark Teixeira and Nick Johnson stopped hitting like Randy Winn.
Friday, April 23, 2010
What Should We Expect Out of The Rest of This West Coast Trip(Los Angeles of Anaheim Edition)?
After winning the first two of a three game set with Oakland and with their best pitcher going in the last game, the Yankees had a chance to sweep and pick up another game on their expectations but unfortunately, it didn’t work out. However, by taking those two of three they were able to maintain the pace that has them currently looking like they’ll win about 100 games this season. Now it’s on to Orange County, California to take on the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
The pitching matchups for that series are:
Friday, April 23
A.J. Burnett vs. Ervin Santana
Saturday, April 24
Andy Pettitte vs. Joel Pineiro
Sunday, April 23
Javier Vazquez vs. Scott Kazmir
After starting the season 2-6, California won six of their next seven games, sweeping the one-time juggernaut Blue Jays and then taking the first two games of a four game series with Detroit to get to 8-7. A blown save by Brian Fuentes in his triumphant return from the DL and then a loss to Justin Verlander in their last two games now has them at an overall record of 8-9. They’ve scored 67 runs and allowed 83 so far, which gives them a Pythagorean record of 7-10. They’re currently two games out of first place in the AL West.
| team | lg | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | GDP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAR |
| Yankees | AL | 551 | 127 | 25 | 6 | 17 | 79 | 73 | 75 | 93 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 5 | .272 | .379 | .460 | .369 | 83.0 | 35.8 |
| Twins | AL | 587 | 135 | 24 | 3 | 16 | 80 | 76 | 76 | 84 | 3 | 18 | 8 | 1 | .270 | .365 | .426 | .349 | 80.1 | 29.8 |
| Royals | AL | 574 | 157 | 25 | 1 | 17 | 71 | 66 | 37 | 86 | 3 | 15 | 17 | 4 | .296 | .343 | .443 | .343 | 77.8 | 28.6 |
| Tigers | AL | 596 | 142 | 34 | 3 | 10 | 67 | 59 | 68 | 101 | 8 | 15 | 5 | 4 | .274 | .366 | .408 | .347 | 77.6 | 26.6 |
| Red Sox | AL | 588 | 133 | 37 | 1 | 20 | 65 | 63 | 51 | 109 | 5 | 14 | 5 | 3 | .252 | .321 | .440 | .330 | 74.8 | 24.4 |
| Blue Jays | AL | 604 | 121 | 43 | 1 | 23 | 72 | 69 | 55 | 135 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 1 | .225 | .300 | .438 | .317 | 75.6 | 23.9 |
| Rays | AL | 574 | 129 | 31 | 4 | 17 | 83 | 82 | 54 | 122 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 6 | .251 | .322 | .427 | .326 | 72.2 | 23.1 |
| Angels | AL | 589 | 135 | 32 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 61 | 45 | 108 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 4 | .251 | .312 | .395 | .311 | 66.7 | 16.2 |
| Rangers | AL | 517 | 109 | 20 | 4 | 11 | 59 | 54 | 44 | 104 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 1 | .237 | .308 | .370 | .300 | 56.2 | 12.0 |
| Athletics | AL | 593 | 128 | 29 | 1 | 9 | 66 | 64 | 53 | 110 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 2 | .243 | .315 | .354 | .300 | 61.4 | 10.7 |
| White Sox | AL | 551 | 106 | 18 | 2 | 18 | 57 | 51 | 53 | 83 | 8 | 18 | 14 | 6 | .217 | .303 | .373 | .300 | 57.2 | 10.1 |
| Mariners | AL | 581 | 128 | 26 | 2 | 6 | 60 | 57 | 57 | 105 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 6 | .250 | .325 | .343 | .302 | 58.9 | 9.2 |
| Orioles | AL | 590 | 122 | 27 | 3 | 13 | 46 | 44 | 39 | 105 | 7 | 16 | 3 | 3 | .225 | .285 | .358 | .284 | 54.0 | 3.5 |
| Indians | AL | 510 | 97 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 46 | 43 | 49 | 105 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 3 | .215 | .300 | .334 | .287 | 47.0 | 3.3 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAA: BR above average (not position-adjusted)
BRAR: BR above replacement level (sum of the individual players’ position-adjusted BR above replacement level )
Last year, the Angels hit .285/.350/.441 as a team en route to scoring 883 runs, the second most runs in the league behind the WORLD CHAMPION Yankees. This year as a team so far they’ve hit a less impressive .252/.316/ .396. Their team wOBA of .311 is 8th in the league.
Since they lost key players Chone Figgins and John Lackey, the aggregate projections on Anaheim were not too good, generally seeing them no better than most of the other teams in the AL West with a 78-84 record on average. So far, they haven’t shown much to dispel those projections.
Here’s how their current primary lineup compares to the Yankees as far as their offensive projections.
| Player | Pos | PA | Outs | BR | OBP | Player | Pos | PA | Outs | BR | OBP |
| Derek Jeter | SS | 5 | 3.1 | 0.69 | .372 | Erick Aybar | SS | 5 | 3.4 | 0.57 | .329 |
| Nick Johnson | 1B | 5 | 3.0 | 0.72 | .405 | Bobby Abreu | RF | 5 | 3.2 | 0.69 | .368 |
| Mark Teixeira | DH | 5 | 3.1 | 0.84 | .381 | Torii Hunter | CF | 5 | 3.3 | 0.71 | .340 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 5 | 3.1 | 0.87 | .387 | Hideki Matsui | DH | 5 | 3.2 | 0.69 | .356 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 5 | 3.3 | 0.70 | .338 | Kendry Morales | 1B | 5 | 3.2 | 0.70 | .338 |
| Jorge Posada | C | 5 | 3.2 | 0.70 | .355 | Juan Rivera | LF | 4 | 2.7 | 0.51 | .317 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | 5 | 3.0 | 0.66 | .341 | Howie Kendrick | 2B | 4 | 2.7 | 0.52 | .336 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 4 | 2.6 | 0.56 | .360 | Mike Napoli | C | 4 | 2.6 | 0.60 | .355 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 4 | 2.6 | 0.47 | .341 | Brandon Wood | 3B | 4 | 2.8 | 0.46 | .297 |
| Total | 43 | 27.0 | 6.22 | .365 | Total | 41 | 27.0 | 5.45 | .338 |
PA: # of PA in a single game
Outs: Outs made at the plate, equals PA times (1 minus OBP)
BR: Linear weights batting runs for listed PA
OBP:projected OBP
And here’s how they compare defensively, again using projections.
| Pos | Player | RS | RS/150 | Player | RS | RS/150 |
| C | Jorge Posada | -0.03 | -5 | Mike Napoli | -0.03 | -5 |
| 1B | Nick Johnson | 0.00 | 0 | Kendry Morales | 0.03 | 5 |
| 2B | Robinson Cano | 0.00 | -1 | Howie Kendrick | 0.03 | 5 |
| 3B | Alex Rodriguez | -0.03 | -5 | Brandon Wood | 0.02 | 2 |
| SS | Derek Jeter | -0.03 | -4 | Erick Aybar | 0.04 | 5 |
| LF | Brett Gardner | 0.02 | 3 | Juan Rivera | 0.05 | 8 |
| CF | Curtis Granderson | 0.04 | 5 | Torii Hunter | -0.01 | -2 |
| RF | Nick Swisher | 0.00 | 0 | Bobby Abreu | -0.08 | -11 |
| Total | -0.03 | -5 | 0.05 | 7 |
RS: Projected runs saved compared to average defensively per game, using an average of projected zone rating and UZR
RS/150: RS pro-rated to 150 games
OVerall they project to have good defenders at most positions, although overall this season they’ve been about two runs below average in both zone rating and UZR>
Califas’s bigger problem has been the pitching staff.
| Rnk | team | lg | Role | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR |
| 4 | Yankees | AL | SP | 11 | 11 | 66.0 | 57 | 27 | 26 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 3 | 56 | 3.68 | 3.55 | 3.61 | 13.1 |
| 12 | Angels | AL | SP | 12 | 12 | 71.7 | 70 | 43 | 39 | 16 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 54 | 5.40 | 4.90 | 5.52 | 0.5 |
| 9 | Yankees | AL | RP | 28 | 0 | 29.0 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 4.66 | 4.34 | 4.34 | 1.7 |
| 13 | Angels | AL | RP | 33 | 0 | 34.3 | 36 | 25 | 22 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 6.55 | 5.77 | 5.33 | -5.3 |
| 7 | Yankees | AL | Total | 39 | 11 | 95.0 | 87 | 42 | 40 | 8 | 34 | 0 | 4 | 79 | 3.98 | 3.79 | 3.83 | 14.7 |
| 13 | Angels | AL | Total | 45 | 12 | 106.0 | 106 | 68 | 61 | 20 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 81 | 5.77 | 5.18 | 5.45 | -4.8 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement. For starters this is calculated as 1.2 times league average starter RA minus starter RA divided by nine times IP. For relievers it’s calculated as 1.2 times league average reliever RA minus reliever RA divided by nine times IP
Rnk: AL rank in RSAR
They’ve had problems in both their rotation and their bullpen.
So what should we expect in this series given the matchups? Using the same methodology used in this post, here are the inputs.
Yankees
Offense: 6.22 runs
Defense: -0.01 runs
Game 1 pitching: 4.3 runs
Game 2 pitching: 4.5 runs
Game 3 pitching: 3.9 runs
Game 3 pitching: 9.5 runs
Los Angeles Angels
Offense: 5.45 runs
Defense: +0.05 runs
Game 1 pitching: 4.8 runs
Game 2 pitching: 4.7 runs
Game 3 pitching: 4.6 runs
Yankee Win Probabilities
Game 1: 58.1%
Game 2: 55.7%
Game 3: 60.3%
Game 3: -100.0%
So adding it up, the Yankees should be expected to go 1.7-1.3 0.1-2.9.
So expect a sweep by the Angels.
Monday, April 19, 2010
What Should We Expect Out of The Upcoming West Coast Trip(Oakland Edition)?
With a strong 9-3 start that has them tied for first place in the loss column in the AL East and already six games ahead of the Red Sox in that same loss column, the Yankees head west for six games. The first three games are against Oakland, where the pitching matchups are:
Tuesday April 20
Javier Vazquez vs. Gio Gonzalez
Wednesday April 21
Phil Hughes vs. Ben Sheets
Thursday April 22
CC Sabathia vs. Dallas Braden
Oakland’s been a bit of a surprise this year as they are in first place in the AL West with a 9-5 record. They’ve scored 62 runs and allowed 47 runs, which translates to a Pythagenpat record of… 9-5.
As a team, Oakland’s offense isn’t particularly good whether you look at their projections or how they’ve done so far in 2010.
| Rank | team | lg | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | GDP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAA |
| 1 | Yankees | AL | 472 | 114 | 24 | 4 | 16 | 69 | 63 | 61 | 76 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 4 | .284 | .386 | .483 | .379 | 75.2 | 18.2 |
| 2 | Royals | AL | 467 | 133 | 22 | 1 | 15 | 63 | 58 | 31 | 64 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 1 | .309 | .358 | .470 | .359 | 70.3 | 13.8 |
| 3 | Twins | AL | 518 | 123 | 23 | 2 | 15 | 69 | 67 | 65 | 74 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 1 | .277 | .367 | .439 | .354 | 73.0 | 10.4 |
| 4 | Tigers | AL | 483 | 114 | 30 | 2 | 8 | 58 | 50 | 60 | 74 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 3 | .275 | .375 | .414 | .354 | 64.8 | 6.5 |
| 5 | Blue Jays | AL | 494 | 98 | 35 | 1 | 18 | 57 | 55 | 46 | 109 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 1 | .223 | .300 | .431 | .315 | 60.7 | 0.9 |
| 6 | Red Sox | AL | 462 | 106 | 31 | 1 | 14 | 48 | 46 | 37 | 86 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 3 | .255 | .318 | .435 | .326 | 57.7 | 1.8 |
| 7 | Rays | AL | 458 | 101 | 23 | 3 | 14 | 62 | 61 | 41 | 97 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 4 | .245 | .314 | .416 | .319 | 56.1 | 0.7 |
| 8 | Angels | AL | 489 | 117 | 26 | 0 | 14 | 52 | 51 | 37 | 91 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | .262 | .319 | .414 | .320 | 58.2 | -0.9 |
| 9 | Athletics | AL | 523 | 117 | 28 | 1 | 7 | 62 | 60 | 46 | 89 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 2 | .252 | .321 | .362 | .305 | 56.5 | -6.7 |
| 10 | White Sox | AL | 484 | 95 | 17 | 1 | 16 | 53 | 48 | 46 | 67 | 8 | 17 | 13 | 5 | .222 | .308 | .379 | .305 | 52.0 | -6.5 |
| 11 | Orioles | AL | 488 | 104 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 36 | 87 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 3 | .234 | .299 | .381 | .299 | 49.8 | -9.2 |
| 12 | Rangers | AL | 427 | 93 | 16 | 3 | 10 | 46 | 42 | 30 | 89 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 1 | .241 | .300 | .376 | .297 | 43.9 | -7.7 |
| 13 | Indians | AL | 444 | 85 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 45 | 42 | 47 | 89 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 3 | .219 | .313 | .343 | .297 | 43.8 | -9.9 |
| 14 | Mariners | AL | 473 | 102 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 45 | 42 | 47 | 93 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 6 | .245 | .321 | .333 | .297 | 45.7 | -11.5 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAA: BR above average (not position-adjusted)
As a team, they’ve collectively hit .252/.321/.362, although it should be noted that their home park suppresses offense a fair amount (by about 4% on average over the last four seasons). It’s also probably at least worth mentioning that their 62 runs scored is a little higher than their context-neutral batting runs which could indicate some good fortune offensively so far. For comparison’s sake, the Yankees have actually scored six fewer runs than they should have if you go by their context-neutral batting runs
You can see the difference more starkly if you line up their primary starting nine next to the Yankee lineup and compare their projections for 2010.
| Player | Pos | PA | Outs | BR | OBP | Player | Pos | PA | Outs | BR | OBP |
| Derek Jeter | SS | 5 | 3.1 | 0.69 | .372 | Rajai Davis | CF | 5 | 3.3 | 0.61 | .335 |
| Nick Johnson | DH | 5 | 3.0 | 0.72 | .405 | Daric Barton | 1B | 5 | 3.2 | 0.64 | .356 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | 5 | 3.1 | 0.84 | .381 | Ryan Sweeney | RF | 5 | 3.3 | 0.60 | .345 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 5 | 3.1 | 0.87 | .387 | Kevin Kouzmanoff | 3B | 5 | 3.4 | 0.62 | .312 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 5 | 3.3 | 0.70 | .338 | Kurt Suzuki | C | 4 | 2.9 | 0.51 | .333 |
| Jorge Posada | C | 5 | 3.2 | 0.70 | .355 | Eric Chavez | DH | 4 | 2.8 | 0.44 | .306 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | 5 | 3.0 | 0.66 | .341 | Mark Ellis | 2B | 4 | 2.7 | 0.45 | .316 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 4 | 2.6 | 0.56 | .360 | Travis Buck | LF | 4 | 2.7 | 0.48 | .332 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 4 | 2.6 | 0.47 | .341 | Cliff Pennington | SS | 4 | 2.7 | 0.41 | .327 |
| Total | 43 | 27.0 | 6.22 | .365 | Total | 40 | 27.0 | 4.77 | .330 |
PA: # of PA in a single game
Outs: Outs made at the plate, equals PA times (1 minus OBP)
BR: Linear weights batting runs for listed PA
OBP:projected OBP
These are based on an average of six projection systems (CAIRO, CHONE, Marcel, Oliver, PECOTA and ZiPS), so the built-in CAIRO bias towards the Yankees is slightly mitigated.
Of course, you don’t have to score 6.22 runs a game to be a good team in baseball if you can prevent runs well. That’s where Oakland’s biggest strength lies. So far this season, their pitching staff has been the most effective one in the American League.
| Rnk | team | lg | Role | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR |
| 1 | Athletics | AL | Total | 48 | 13 | 115.3 | 98 | 39 | 33 | 8 | 44 | 2 | 2 | 97 | 3.04 | 2.58 | 3.62 | 29.8 |
| 2 | Twins | AL | Total | 46 | 12 | 108.0 | 100 | 37 | 37 | 11 | 30 | 1 | 3 | 72 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 4.11 | 27.5 |
| 3 | White Sox | AL | Total | 45 | 12 | 110.0 | 96 | 48 | 44 | 6 | 51 | 6 | 3 | 98 | 3.93 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 17.6 |
| 4 | Mariners | AL | Total | 40 | 12 | 105.0 | 103 | 46 | 43 | 8 | 41 | 1 | 4 | 69 | 3.94 | 3.69 | 4.16 | 16.6 |
| 5 | Rays | AL | Total | 46 | 11 | 103.0 | 97 | 45 | 44 | 16 | 39 | 2 | 4 | 75 | 3.93 | 3.84 | 5.02 | 16.4 |
| 6 | Rangers | AL | Total | 42 | 11 | 95.0 | 87 | 41 | 34 | 11 | 40 | 1 | 8 | 77 | 3.88 | 3.22 | 4.60 | 15.7 |
| 7 | Yankees | AL | Total | 39 | 11 | 95.0 | 87 | 42 | 40 | 8 | 34 | 0 | 4 | 79 | 3.98 | 3.79 | 3.83 | 14.7 |
| 8 | Indians | AL | Total | 40 | 11 | 98.7 | 83 | 46 | 40 | 9 | 50 | 2 | 7 | 60 | 4.20 | 3.65 | 4.90 | 13.0 |
| 9 | Blue Jays | AL | Total | 43 | 12 | 109.3 | 94 | 55 | 53 | 15 | 37 | 2 | 7 | 87 | 4.53 | 4.36 | 4.60 | 10.3 |
| 10 | Red Sox | AL | Total | 45 | 11 | 100.0 | 100 | 54 | 45 | 13 | 42 | 2 | 3 | 64 | 4.86 | 4.05 | 4.96 | 5.5 |
| 11 | Orioles | AL | Total | 48 | 12 | 104.7 | 114 | 63 | 54 | 13 | 36 | 7 | 4 | 96 | 5.42 | 4.64 | 4.13 | -0.6 |
| 12 | Tigers | AL | Total | 43 | 11 | 98.0 | 112 | 59 | 50 | 10 | 39 | 1 | 4 | 61 | 5.42 | 4.59 | 4.60 | -0.8 |
| 13 | Angels | AL | Total | 45 | 12 | 106.0 | 106 | 68 | 61 | 20 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 81 | 5.77 | 5.18 | 5.45 | -4.8 |
| 14 | Royals | AL | Total | 50 | 11 | 98.0 | 112 | 66 | 62 | 14 | 48 | 1 | 7 | 69 | 6.06 | 5.69 | 5.33 | -7.6 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement. For starters this is calculated as 1.25 times league RA minus starter RA divided by nine times IP. For relievers it’s calculated as 1.15 times league RA minus reliever RA divided by nine times IP
If you go by RA, the A’s have been the best pitching staff in the AL so far, although they obviously get a boost from their park. The bulk of that value is actually in their rotation, at least so far.
| Rnk | team | lg | Role | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR |
| 1 | Athletics | AL | SP | 13 | 13 | 78.3 | 68 | 23 | 20 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 2 | 58 | 2.64 | 2.30 | 3.66 | 24.5 |
| 4 | Yankees | AL | SP | 11 | 11 | 66.0 | 57 | 27 | 26 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 3 | 56 | 3.68 | 3.55 | 3.61 | 13.1 |
| 4 | Athletics | AL | RP | 35 | 0 | 37.0 | 30 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 39 | 3.89 | 3.16 | 3.52 | 5.3 |
| 9 | Yankees | AL | RP | 28 | 0 | 29.0 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 4.66 | 4.34 | 4.34 | 1.7 |
They’ve been better than the Yankees in both starting and relieving to this point, although strength of offenses faced is likely a contributing factor.
Lastly, Oakland also looks to have a very strong defense, here’s how the primary lineups compare defensively at each position.
| Pos | Player | RS | RS/150 | Player | RS | RS/150 |
| C | Jorge Posada | -0.03 | -5 | Kurt Suzuki | 0.05 | 7 |
| 1B | Mark Teixeira | 0.02 | 3 | Daric Barton | 0.03 | 5 |
| 2B | Robinson Cano | 0.00 | -1 | Mark Ellis | 0.08 | 12 |
| 3B | Alex Rodriguez | -0.03 | -5 | Kevin Kouzmanoff | 0.02 | 3 |
| SS | Derek Jeter | -0.03 | -4 | Cliff Pennington | -0.05 | -7 |
| LF | Brett Gardner | 0.02 | 3 | Travis Buck | -0.01 | -2 |
| CF | Curtis Granderson | 0.04 | 5 | Rajai Davis | 0.06 | 9 |
| RF | Nick Swisher | 0.00 | 0 | Ryan Sweeney | 0.11 | 17 |
| Total | -0.01 | -2 | 0.30 | 45 |
RS: Projected runs saved compared to average defensively per game, using an average of projected zone rating and UZR
RS/150: RS pro-rated to 150 games
Yeah, yeah, so what does all this nerdy crap mean?
It means if we want to figure out the win probability for each game via Bill James’s log 5 methodology, we’d use these numbers to do it.
So in Game 1, we have the following inputs:
Yankees
Offense: 6.22 runs
Defense: -0.01 runs
Pitching: 3.9 runs (using six innings of Vazquez’s projected RA, then an inning each of Damaso Marte, David Robertson and Mariano Rivera)
Pythagenpat win Percentage: .714
Home field disadvantage: -0.02
Road Pythagenpat win percentage: 0..694
Athletics
Offense: 4.77 runs
Defense: 0.30 runs
Pitching: 4.9 runs (using six innings of Gio Gonzalez’s projected RA, then an inning each of Brad Ziegler, Jerry Blevins and Andrew Bailey)
Pythagenpat Win Percentage: .519
Home field advantage: 0.02
Home Pythagenpat win percentage: 0.539
Log 5 win probability = team A win percentage minus team B win percentage + .500. So for Game 1, with these lineups we’d set the Yankee win probability at 67.5%. Of course, Vazquez’s projections don’t include the fact that he can’t pitch in Yankee pinstripes, so the actual Yankee win probability is more like -100.0%.
Using the same lineups for Games 2 and 3 with the changed pitching matchups gives us these probabilities:
Game 2: 57.4%
Game 3: 64.2%
So theoretically, if not for the Vazquez effect, the Yankees should expect to go something like 1.9 - 1.1 against Oakland. Which they can’t do, because you can’t win partial games, so let’s round that up to 2-1.
Of course, one of the great modern philosphers made the astute observation that you can’t predict baseball, so I’m going to throw these numbers into the East River and predict an Oakland sweep to kick off a 15 game losing streak for the Yankees.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Yankees.com: Power on display as Yanks beat Rangers
NEW YORK—On days like Saturday, when the Yankees beat the Rangers, 7-3, in the Bronx, trying to pitch to New York’s lineup simply seems unreasonable.
There is no easy out and there appears to be no weakness. Power? The left side of the Bombers’ infield went deep off Rangers’ reliever Doug Mathis. Speed? Brett Gardner twice extended innings with two-out infield hits. The Yankees scored six runs in those frames after Gardner’s hustle singles. Patience? How about Nick Johnson and Swisher seeing 24 pitches in three combined at-bats against Texas starter Scott Feldman?
Mark Teixeira’s an easy out.
It was nice to see A.J. Burnett throw another good game with Jorge Posada behind the plate as well.
The Yankees are now 1.9 wins ahead of where my early April log 5 post would have put them.
| date | game | xW | xL | cxW | cxL | aW | aL | caW | caL | W+/- |
| 4-Apr | @Boston Red Sox | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -0.48 |
| 6-Apr | @Boston Red Sox | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.97 | 1.03 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 |
| 7-Apr | @Boston Red Sox | 0.48 | 0.52 | 1.45 | 1.55 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.55 |
| 9-Apr | @Tampa Bay Rays | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.95 | 2.05 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 |
| 10-Apr | @Tampa Bay Rays | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.44 | 2.56 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.56 |
| 11-Apr | @Tampa Bay Rays | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.94 | 3.06 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1.06 |
| 13-Apr | vs. Los Angeles Angels | 0.65 | 0.35 | 3.59 | 3.41 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1.41 |
| 14-Apr | vs. Los Angeles Angels | 0.65 | 0.35 | 4.23 | 3.77 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0.77 |
| 15-Apr | vs. Los Angeles Angels | 0.65 | 0.35 | 4.88 | 4.12 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 1.12 |
| 16-Apr | vs. Texas Rangers | 0.61 | 0.39 | 5.49 | 4.51 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 1.51 |
| 17-Apr | vs. Texas Rangers | 0.61 | 0.39 | 6.09 | 4.91 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 1.91 |
| 18-Apr | vs. Texas Rangers | 0.61 | 0.39 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 8 | 3 |
xW/L: Expected wins/losses using log 5
cxW/L: Cumulative expected wins/losses using log 5
aW/L: Actual wins/losses for games played
caW/L: Cumulative ctual wins/losses for games played
W+/-: caW - cxW. Negative means behind pace, positive means ahead of pace
If they can finish off the sweep tomorrow they’ll be 2.3 wins ahead of pace, and even if they should lose they’ll still be 1.3 wins ahead.
Monday, April 12, 2010
2010 Opening Week In Review
If you trust the results of the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout, the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays are probably the three best teams in baseball. So starting the season by playing six games on the road against two of the three best teams in baseball had the potential to be pretty painful. Fortunately for us, the Yankees were up to the task, taking two of three from both of their rivals, enabling them to stay close to the Toronto juggernaut in the AL East.
Here’s a look at how the team performed statistically.
| Player | Team | Lg | Pos | G | AB | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | GDP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAR |
| Jorge Posada | Yankees | AL | C | 5 | 17 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .353 | .500 | .824 | .534 | 6.0 | 4.4 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | AL | CF | 6 | 23 | 26 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .348 | .423 | .652 | .452 | 6.2 | 3.9 |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | AL | 2B | 6 | 25 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .360 | .370 | .680 | .428 | 5.2 | 2.9 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | AL | RF | 6 | 21 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .440 | .571 | .437 | 4.9 | 2.4 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 6 | 27 | 29 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .259 | .310 | .481 | .336 | 3.6 | 1.2 |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | AL | SS | 6 | 28 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .286 | .333 | .321 | .300 | 3.2 | 0.9 |
| Francisco Cervelli | Yankees | AL | C | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .400 | .667 | .392 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | AL | LF | 5 | 17 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .294 | .368 | .294 | .313 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| Marcus Thames | Yankees | AL | LF | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .400 | .250 | .324 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Ramiro Pena | Yankees | AL | 3B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Randy Winn | Yankees | AL | RF | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | -0.2 | -0.4 |
| Nick Johnson | Yankees | AL | DH | 6 | 22 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .136 | .367 | .182 | .294 | 2.5 | -0.9 |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | AL | 1B | 6 | 24 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .125 | .276 | .167 | .229 | 1.3 | -1.8 |
| Total | 62 | 213 | 249 | 58 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 2 | .272 | .369 | .451 | .360 | 36.7 | 13.9 |
BR: Batting runs using linear weights
BRAR: Position-adjusted BR above replacement level
At this point, Teixeira’s a sunk cost and the Yankees should probably just release him and eat his salary. How about that Posada kid though? And this Granderson fella can play a bit as well. On a slightly more serious note, the Yankees put up 36 runs in six games on the road against two of the better projected run prevention teams in the league, which bodes nicely for the offense going forward.
| Player | Team | Lg | Role | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | AL | SP | 2 | 2 | 13.0 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 3.46 | 3.46 | 2.74 | 2.9 |
| Andy Pettitte | Yankees | AL | SP | 1 | 1 | 6.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 3.87 | 2.7 |
| Mariano Rivera | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 3.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.87 | 1.7 |
| A.J. Burnett | Yankees | AL | SP | 2 | 2 | 12.0 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 4.50 | 3.75 | 4.53 | 1.3 |
| Alfredo Aceves | Yankees | AL | RP | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.20 | 1.1 |
| David Robertson | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.20 | 1.1 |
| Sergio Mitre | Yankees | AL | RP | 1 | 0 | 2.3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 2.34 | 0.3 |
| Damaso Marte | Yankees | AL | RP | 2 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.20 | 0.2 |
| Joba Chamberlain | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 3.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 3.20 | -0.3 |
| Chan Ho Park | Yankees | AL | RP | 2 | 0 | 3.7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7.36 | 4.91 | 5.65 | -0.9 |
| Javier Vazquez | Yankees | AL | SP | 1 | 1 | 5.7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12.71 | 12.71 | 7.61 | -4.5 |
| Total | 21 | 6 | 53 | 49 | 26 | 24 | 4 | 18 | 34 | 4.42 | 4.08 | 3.92 | 5.5 |
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level.
Yay Battlecat! And if you need further proof about how foolish it was to put Joba in the rotation, look at how dominant he’s been as a reliever so far. I don’t care about sample size, he’s clearly the Joba of old again. Vindication for the JSPTE crowd!
UZR is not yet available for 2010, but here’s how the team performed this past week according to zone rating.
| Player | Tm | Lg | Pos | G | GS | CH | INN | PO | A | E | DP | ZR | PM | Avg ZR | AvgPM | Diff | RS |
| Rodriguez, Alex | NYY | AL | 3B | 6 | 6 | 19 | 52 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 3 | .947 | 18 | .826 | 16 | 2 | 2 |
| Granderson, Curtis | NYY | AL | CF | 6 | 6 | 26 | 53 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .923 | 24 | .881 | 23 | 1 | 1 |
| Teixeira, Mark | NYY | AL | 1B | 6 | 6 | 13 | 53 | 57 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1.000 | 13 | .943 | 12 | 1 | 1 |
| Gardner, Brett | NYY | AL | LF | 5 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .889 | 8 | .858 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Pena, Ramiro | NYY | AL | 3B | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1 | .826 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Winn, Randy | NYY | AL | RF | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1 | .867 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Swisher, Nick | NYY | AL | RF | 6 | 6 | 6 | 47 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .833 | 5 | .867 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Thames, Marcus | NYY | AL | LF | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .667 | 2 | .858 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| Jeter, Derek | NYY | AL | SS | 6 | 6 | 14 | 53 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 3 | .643 | 9 | .849 | 12 | -3 | -2 |
| Cano, Robinson | NYY | AL | 2B | 6 | 6 | 24 | 53 | 11 | 20 | 0 | 5 | .708 | 17 | .831 | 20 | -3 | -2 |
G: Games
GS: Games Started
CH: Playable Chances
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double Plays
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
PM: Plays Made
Avg ZR: ZR by average defender at the same position and in the same league
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved
Standard caveats about limitations of fielding metrics and sample size apply as always. At this point just one missed play can have a huge impact on a player’s RS total, so don’t make too much of these numbers yet, although I’ve been very pleased with Rodriguez’s defense at third so far. His hip doesn’t seem to be an issue in terms of his lateral range to this point.
For the hell of it, here’s how zone rating has all 30 MLB teams ranked (does not include catchers).
| TM | POS | Ch | PM | Diff | RS |
| Det | Total | 106 | 98 | 7 | 6 |
| Cle | Total | 100 | 92 | 6 | 5 |
| Fla | Total | 104 | 91 | 4 | 3 |
| StL | Total | 103 | 88 | 3 | 3 |
| Mil | Total | 101 | 87 | 3 | 3 |
| Atl | Total | 111 | 95 | 3 | 2 |
| Was | Total | 107 | 92 | 3 | 2 |
| SD | Total | 105 | 89 | 2 | 1 |
| Cin | Total | 107 | 91 | 1 | 1 |
| Oak | Total | 113 | 98 | 1 | 1 |
| Sea | Total | 130 | 113 | 1 | 1 |
| NYM | Total | 117 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
| Tor | Total | 99 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| ChC | Total | 98 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| Bos | Total | 121 | 104 | 0 | 0 |
| KC | Total | 114 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
| Min | Total | 124 | 106 | 0 | 0 |
| LAA | Total | 132 | 113 | 0 | 0 |
| Col | Total | 105 | 85 | -1 | -1 |
| NYY | Total | 116 | 98 | -2 | -1 |
| LA | Total | 95 | 76 | -2 | -1 |
| Bal | Total | 96 | 81 | -2 | -2 |
| Phi | Total | 106 | 86 | -2 | -2 |
| Ari | Total | 110 | 89 | -2 | -2 |
| SF | Total | 114 | 92 | -2 | -2 |
| TB | Total | 115 | 96 | -3 | -3 |
| Hou | Total | 120 | 97 | -4 | -3 |
| CWS | Total | 107 | 88 | -4 | -3 |
| Tex | Total | 91 | 74 | -4 | -3 |
| Pit | Total | 118 | 91 | -7 | -5 |
Shouldn’t the Red Sox be around +10 by now? Peter Gammons told me they were going to be historically great defensively.
When we looked at the April expectations using log 5, we saw that the Yankees would have been estimated to go 1.4 - 1.6 versus Boston and 1.5 and 1.5 versus Tampa Bay(and yes, I know you can’t win .4 or .5 or .6 games). That means they’d have been expected to be 2.94 - 3.06 after six games. All that means is they’re a game ahead of where we’d have put them, so we’d have to consider opening week a success.
| date | game | xW | xL | cxW | cxL | aW | aL | caW | caL | W+/- |
| 4-Apr | @Boston Red Sox | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -0.48 |
| 6-Apr | @Boston Red Sox | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.97 | 1.03 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 |
| 7-Apr | @Boston Red Sox | 0.48 | 0.52 | 1.45 | 1.55 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.55 |
| 9-Apr | @Tampa Bay Rays | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.95 | 2.05 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 |
| 10-Apr | @Tampa Bay Rays | 0.50 | 0.50 | 2.44 | 2.56 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.56 |
| 11-Apr | @Tampa Bay Rays | 0.50 | 0.50 | 2.94 | 3.06 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.06 |
xW/L: Expected wins/losses using log 5
cxW/L: Cumulative expected wins/losses using log 5
aW/L: Actual wins/losses for games played
caW/L: Cumulative ctual wins/losses for games played
W+/-: caW - cxW. Negative means behind pace, positive means ahead of pace
So now it’s on to a six game home stand against the Orange County Angels and the Texas Rangers.
| date | game | xW | xL | cxW | cxL |
| 13-Apr | vs. Los Angeles Angels | 0.65 | 0.35 | 3.59 | 3.41 |
| 14-Apr | vs. Los Angeles Angels | 0.65 | 0.35 | 4.23 | 3.77 |
| 15-Apr | vs. Los Angeles Angels | 0.65 | 0.35 | 4.88 | 4.12 |
| 16-Apr | vs. Texas Rangers | 0.61 | 0.39 | 5.49 | 4.51 |
| 17-Apr | vs. Texas Rangers | 0.61 | 0.39 | 6.09 | 4.91 |
| 18-Apr | vs. Texas Rangers | 0.61 | 0.39 | 6.7 | 5.3 |
| total | 3.78 | 2.22 |
Log 5 would tell you that the Yankees should go 3.78 - 2.22 on this homestand, but they’ll get swept by the Angels, which is going to make that impossible. So I guess it’s good they’ve got a game in the bank.
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
.000/.500/.000
That's Nick Johnson's line after 10 PAs so far in 2010. If you look at that as an OPS of .500, it's pretty bad, but I want to look at it in terms of run value.So first, let's look at the 2010 Yankee lineup and their CAIRO projections.
| Player | Pos | PA | Outs | BR |
| Derek Jeter | SS | 5 | 3 | 0.69 |
| Nick Johnson | DH | 5 | 3 | 0.73 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | 5 | 3 | 0.84 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 5 | 3 | 0.89 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 5 | 3 | 0.73 |
| Jorge Posada | C | 5 | 3 | 0.70 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | 5 | 3 | 0.64 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 4 | 3 | 0.55 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 4 | 3 | 0.48 |
| Total | 43 | 27 | 6.25 |
BR:Linear weights batting runs pro-rated to the listed PAs.
So Johnson's projection makes him worth about .73 runs per game, and has the Yankee lineup scoring 6.25 runs per game.
If we replace projected Johnson in the lineup with 2010 actual Johnson, here's how that looks.
| Player | Pos | PA | Outs | BR |
| Derek Jeter | SS | 5 | 3 | 0.69 |
| Nick Johnson2010 | DH | 5 | 3 | 0.58 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | 5 | 3 | 0.84 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 5 | 3 | 0.89 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 5 | 3 | 0.73 |
| Jorge Posada | C | 5 | 3 | 0.70 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | 5 | 3 | 0.70 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 4 | 3 | 0.59 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 4 | 3 | 0.48 |
| Total | 43 | 27 | 6.19 |
There's a difference there of .06 runs per game, which works out to around 10 runs over a full season.
So Nick, feel free to sprinkle a few hits in there.
In all seriousness, it's fun having Johnson back, isn't it?
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Yankees.com: Patient Yanks eek out win at Fenway
BOSTON—Nick Johnson worked an eighth-inning walk from Hideki Okajima that forced home Jorge Posada with the eventual winning run as the Yankees defeated the Red Sox, 6-4, on Tuesday at Fenway Park.
The Yankees moved the go-ahead run across, slowly, as Posada opened the inning with a ground-rule double against the left-hander and was forced to hold on Brett Gardner’s squib-shot single. Derek Jeter reached on a two-out error by shortstop Marco Scutaro, and Johnson tossed his bat aside after a five-pitch walk that forced in the run.
It’s going to take a lot for the Yankees to get another win against a team with 7 aces. Appreciate this one while you can.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Looking Ahead to 2010 - Position Player Wrapup
Unfortunately I didn’t really get to finish these up in the detail I’d like to due to time constraints, so I’ll consolidate these into a few more posts, one for the position player wrap up, one for the starting pitchers, one for the relievers and then one final one for the whole team.
The table below just shows a rough estimate of projected playing time for the starters and the guys I think will be the primary bench players, and their projected outs and batting runs in each of the projection systems I've been using for these previews.| Player | Pos | PA | caOuts | caBR | chOuts | chBR | mOuts | mBR | oOuts | oBR | pOuts | pBR | zOuts | zBR | aOuts | aBR | |
| 1 | Derek Jeter | SS | 650 | 409 | 90 | 408 | 91 | 409 | 90 | 407 | 87 | 411 | 87 | 407 | 90 | 408 | 89 |
| 2 | Nick Johnson | DH | 450 | 265 | 66 | 274 | 63 | 271 | 63 | 271 | 61 | 261 | 68 | 261 | 69 | 267 | 65 |
| 3 | Mark Teixeira | 1B | 650 | 403 | 109 | 406 | 111 | 399 | 112 | 399 | 112 | 395 | 112 | 409 | 103 | 402 | 110 |
| 4 | Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 600 | 367 | 106 | 370 | 105 | 368 | 106 | 367 | 104 | 367 | 105 | 369 | 103 | 368 | 105 |
| 5 | Robinson Cano | 2B | 625 | 407 | 92 | 411 | 92 | 415 | 85 | 422 | 82 | 410 | 89 | 415 | 86 | 413 | 88 |
| 6 | Jorge Posada | C | 450 | 292 | 63 | 293 | 62 | 287 | 67 | 284 | 66 | 292 | 58 | 298 | 58 | 291 | 62 |
| 7 | Curtis Granderson | CF | 600 | 397 | 84 | 395 | 87 | 394 | 87 | 399 | 83 | 388 | 93 | 399 | 84 | 395 | 87 |
| 8 | Nick Swisher | RF | 575 | 371 | 79 | 367 | 83 | 369 | 81 | 372 | 78 | 361 | 86 | 370 | 80 | 368 | 81 |
| 9 | Brett Gardner | LF | 450 | 293 | 54 | 292 | 56 | 301 | 54 | 301 | 47 | 289 | 57 | 302 | 50 | 296 | 53 |
| Starters | 5050 | 3204 | 742 | 3216 | 750 | 3212 | 746 | 3222 | 719 | 3174 | 757 | 3229 | 724 | 3210 | 740 | ||
| Player | Pos | PA | caOuts | caBR | chOuts | chBR | mOuts | mBR | oOuts | oBR | pOuts | pBR | zOuts | zBR | aOuts | aBR | |
| Randy Winn | OF | 400 | 272 | 44 | 273 | 42 | 267 | 49 | 269 | 44 | 263 | 49 | 266 | 46 | 268 | 46 | |
| Francisco Cervelli | C | 300 | 203 | 30 | 207 | 30 | 200 | 37 | 212 | 26 | 200 | 32 | 208 | 30 | 205 | 31 | |
| Marcus Thames | OF | 200 | 140 | 24 | 139 | 26 | 139 | 26 | 140 | 25 | 140 | 24 | 141 | 25 | 140 | 25 | |
| Ramiro Pena | IF | 200 | 140 | 17 | 139 | 19 | 132 | 26 | 146 | 14 | 138 | 19 | 140 | 17 | 139 | 19 | |
| Kevin Russo | IF | 200 | 138 | 19 | 134 | 23 | 135 | 21 | 141 | 15 | 134 | 23 | 137 | 20 | 136 | 20 | |
| Bench | 1300 | 893 | 134 | 891 | 140 | 873 | 158 | 907 | 124 | 874 | 147 | 892 | 139 | 888 | 140 | ||
| Player | Pos | PA | caOuts | caBR | chOuts | chBR | mOuts | mBR | oOuts | oBR | pOuts | pBR | zOuts | zBR | aOuts | aBR | |
| Team Total | 6350 | 4097 | 877 | 4107 | 891 | 4085 | 903 | 4129 | 843 | 4048 | 904 | 4121 | 862 | 4098 | 880 |
caOuts/caBR: cairo projected outs and linear weights batting runs for estimated PA
chOuts/chBR: chone projected outs and linear weights batting runs for estimated PA
mOuts/mBR: marcel projected outs and linear weights batting runs for estimated PA
oOuts/oBR: oliver projected outs and linear weights batting runs for estimated PA
pOuts/pBR: pecota projected outs and linear weights batting runs for estimated PA
zOuts/zBR: zips projected outs and linear weights batting runs for estimated PA
aOuts/aBR: average projected outs and linear weights batting runs for estimated PA
Team outs should add up to 4100 so keep that in mind when looking at each individual system. The systems that show more than 4100 outs would predict a few runs less than shown and the systems that show fewer than 4100 outs would predict a few more runs than shown, but the average is fairly close. 880 runs is about 15 runs fewer than the average projection showed in the Diamond Mind projection blowout, but that looks like it's due to slight differences in the playing time of some of the players compared to these.
If the Yankees can get a few more PA out of Nick Johnson and Jorge Posada, they should be able to get up to around 900 runs.
Defensively, the Yankees should look like this roughly.
| Pos | Player | Inn | RS |
| C | Posada | 840 | -5 |
| C | Cervelli | 600 | 1 |
| 1B | Teixeira | 1200 | 3 |
| 1B | Johnson | 240 | 0 |
| 2B | Cano | 1300 | -1 |
| 2B | Pena | 140 | -1 |
| 3B | Rodriguez | 1200 | -4 |
| 3B | Pena | 240 | 0 |
| SS | Jeter | 1300 | -4 |
| SS | Pena | 140 | 0 |
| IF | -6 | ||
| LF | Gardner | 900 | 2 |
| LF | Winn | 400 | 2 |
| LF | Thames | 140 | -1 |
| CF | Granderson | 1200 | 5 |
| CF | Gardner | 200 | 2 |
| CF | Winn | 40 | 0 |
| RF | Swisher | 1200 | 0 |
| RF | Winn | 240 | 2 |
| OF | 12 | ||
| Total | 2 |
RS are runs saved compared to average using an average of zone rating and UZR.
While it's likely more players than those on the original opening day roster will see time defensively, none of the players that would fall into that group have defensive projections that I'd feel comfortable using so I'm not going to include them here. The infield looks a bit below average and the outfield looks like they should be pretty decent. Overall, they could be around average as a unit, which would be nice.
I'm pretty sure this is the best group of position players in baseball on paper, so barring injury and/or worse than expected decline they should do their part to make the Yankees a mid-90s win team. Will the pitching staff be up to the task? That's a question for the next two posts.
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