Thursday, May 17, 2012
THT: More sliders, more success for Logan
So far this season, Logan is striking out batters in 35 percent of their plate appearances against him, placing him ninth among big league relievers and well above his career norms in that category. The reasonable next question is: what’s up? How has Boone Logan become so good? The answer, it appears, has mostly to do with his low-80s slider, his breaking pitch of choice.
Maybe we can finally put to rest the silly notion that Boone Logan stinks?
THT: 10th anniversary: Giambi’s walk-off slam
So far, Giambi had been a complete non-factor. He had an early double and an extra-inning single, but neither safety led to any runs. After 13 frames, he was 2-for-5 on the day. Not bad, but nothing memorable.
The 14th would be very memorable. First, Minnesota broke the deadlock in the top of the inning. Behind four singles, a walk, and an error, Minnesota scored thrice to seemingly ice the game with a 12-9 lead.
However, the Yankees weren’t about to give up. In the bottom of the frame, three of the first four Yankees reached base, loading them up with just one out.
With the bases loaded, Giambi strode to the plate with the game on the line. He didn’t make anyone wait, bashing the first pitch out of the park for a game-winning, walk-off grand slam.
I can’t believe it’s been 10 years since this game, one of the best Yankee games in my memory.
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Yahoo: Yankees-Blue Jays Preview
Already without Mariano Rivera (torn ACL), New York placed fill-in closer David Robertson on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday with a strained muscle in his left ribcage.
“We lost Mariano first. The bullpen will do whatever we have to do,” said Rafael Soriano, who is expected to take over for Robertson. “Now with two guys down, it’s not easy for us.”The Yankees have dropped 12 of 19 at Toronto.
I thought the Yankees had done pretty poorly in Toronto recently, but had no idea it was that bad. Needless to say I’m not expecting a great series this week given the current state of the team. Luckily it’s only a two-gamer. Then it’s back home to begin the inanity of interleague play.
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Yankees.com: Without much help, CC handed first defeat
BALTIMORE—The Yankees’ offense lagged against Wei-Yin Chen and the Orioles handed CC Sabathia his first loss of the season, posting a 5-2 victory over New York on Tuesday at Camden Yards.
Chen, a 26-year-old product of Taiwan, enjoyed some success against the Yankees in his first Major League start, on April 10, and was able to improve upon that, blanking New York through the first six innings.
I’m not sure what looked worse. The Yankee offense or CC. Either way, it was a well-deserved loss, but at least the Yankees didn’t need to use their closer.
Beyond the Box Score: A PITCHf/x Look At Eight Rookie Starters
Phelps had a reputation for being mostly a fastball guy who lacked a put-away offspeed pitch, and that seems to largely be true. He does have a curveball, a cutter, and a changeup, and these pitches significantly lessen the pressure on Phelps’ solid-average, but not excellent, fastball—Phelps has gone offspeed 43.3% of the time this year. None of the three offerings, however, has a whiff rate higher than the curve’s 11.4%, so he doesn’t have a bigtime “out pitch.” The curve is a surprisingly hard (78-82 mph) breaker, and Phelps pounds the zone with the cutter (72.1% strikes), so he’s been able to coax some value out of those two offerings. Like Smyly, the changeup is a distant fourth pitch that is used exclusively to opposite-side batters.
It all adds up to a guy who is more than the sum of his parts; none of Phelps’ pitches wow you, but he’s got three solid pitches and a fourth usable one, and he commands all of them and doesn’t have any obvious weaknesses. The Yankees have high standards, but for almost any other team, Phelps would be a great guy to plug into the back of the rotation.
Here’s an interesting look at some rookie pitchers and their Pitch F/X, including David Phelps.
Sporting News: Yankees closer David Robertson to have MRI exam on sore oblique
New York Yankees closer David Robertson is expected to have an MRI exam Tuesday because of continued soreness in his left oblique, the New York Daily News reports.
Robertson, who took over as closer when all-time saves leader Mariano Rivera suffered a season-ending knee injury May 3, has been battling discomfort since Friday.
Dear Lord…
Player A vs. Player B
Player A: Age 32, 147 PA, .231/.286/.403, signed through 2016.
Player B: Age 32, 149 PA, .197/.235/.275, signed through 2021! <== Ha ha.
Monday, May 14, 2012
Yankees.com: Snapping late tie, Teixeira finishes O’s
BALTIMORE—The Yankees have come to accept Mark Teixeira’s slow starts as par for the course, but the slumping switch-hitter delivered a big blow at a most opportune time.
Teixeira blasted a two-run homer in the seventh inning to put his club ahead and the Yankees made it hold up, posting an 8-5 victory over the Orioles on Monday at Camden Yards.
What a bizarre night. The Yankees 3-4-5 hitters combined for 7 hits and Rafael Soriano almost pitched his first 1-2-3 inning of the year, sabotaged by an Eric Chavez error.
Ivan Nova left the game in the sixth with a bruised right foot and sprained right ankle which sounds like a crappy night for his lower right leg. He’ll probably miss a start or two, but hopefully not much more than that.
Since I complain about Joe Girardi a lot, I’ll commend him for how he managed the bullpen tonight. I much prefer choosing pitchers based on match-ups to choosing pitchers based on the inning, and Clay Rapada, David Phelps Boone Logan and Cory Wade made it work. Losing Mo is a big blow, but since Girardi became Yankee manager they’ve had the best relief ERA in the majors so I think he’ll be able to handle it about as well as anyone could.
Sunday, May 13, 2012
Yankees.com: Pettitte celebrated, but falls to Mariners
Pettitte, making his first start in nearly 600 days, turned back the clock to 2010 Sunday, when he controlled Seattle early but fell to a 6-2 loss on a pair of two-run home runs. The left-hander said he didn’t feel any rust from his layover and that his velocity and location were good enough to win.
I didn’t get to see the game so I’d be interested to hear how people thought Pettitte looked. My first impression is that giving up four runs to a putrid Seattle team isn’t necessarily a good start, but it’s only one game.
As for the rest of the team, it’s pretty annoying to see them light up James Shields, David Price and Felix Hernandez then get stifled by Kevin Freaking Millwood, but I think taking four of six on this home stand is pretty good.
Friday, May 11, 2012
Yankees.com: Ibanez’s blast helps Yankees solve Felix
One night after the Bombers knocked around the Rays’ David Price, Raul Ibanez’s three-run homer helped power an 11-hit assault on Felix Hernandez as the Yankees toppled the Mariners, 6-2, on Friday at Yankee Stadium.
“I think that things are definitely coming around offensively; guys are swinging the bats well,” said Ibanez, whose sixth-inning blast off Hernandez put New York in command. “We’ve been having some good swings together as a group.”
NJ.com: Carig: Brett Gardner to miss at least two more weeks, Yankees say
NEW YORK — Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner will miss at least two more weeks after an MRI exam yesterday revealed he has reinjured his right elbow.
“We’re going to be without Gardy for a while here,” manager Joe Girardi said after the Yankees beat the Rays, 5-3 Thursday. “It’s very unfortunate. He swung the bat well in Triple-A, but somehow he irritated that muscle again.”
Even if you think Gardner’s defense is overrated, there’s no question the Yankees miss him.
| Player | PA | AB | Hits | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | HBP | K | GDP | BA | OBA | Slug% | woba | br |
| Raul Ibanez | 31 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.286 | 0.355 | 0.464 | .358 | 4 |
| Andruw Jones | 25 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.143 | 0.28 | 0.333 | .279 | 2 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | .090 | 0 |
| Jayson Nix | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | -1 |
| DeWayne Wise | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 |
| Total | 76 | 69 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 19 | 2 | .174 | .250 | .304 | .249 | 5 |
| Gardner | 76 | 65 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 1 | .262 | .352 | .371 | .324 | 9 |
woba: Weighted on-base average
br: linear weights batting runs
That’s what the Yankees have gotten out of LF since Gardner went down on April 17 compared to his baseline CAIRO projection pro-rated to the same # of PA. I’m not even including baserunning or SB in the BR, and this ignores defense as well. Purely in the batter’s box the Yankees have lost close to half a win. I wouldn’t be surprised if by the time he’s back the Yankees will have lost a full win if you factor in everything.
That being said, I’m not sure a trade is imminent or makes much sense. It might make sense if the Yankees are considering a youngish OF who can take over should they let Nick Swisher walk at the end of the year, but the cost for that is likely to be pretty steep and it’s probably not a huge upgrade for 2012.
Thursday, May 10, 2012
Yankees.com: CC fans 10 Rays in fifth straight win
NEW YORK—In a battle of top-tier lefties, Yankees ace CC Sabathia outdueled Rays southpaw David Price for the first time in his career and the Yankees took a series victory with a 5-3 win over the visiting Rays on Thursday night at Yankee Stadium.
It was the sixth time the two All-Stars have gone head-to-head, but just the first time the Yankees have won such a meeting.
I’m surprised by that last sentence. I knew they’d matched up quite a few times, but I didn’t think the Yankees had never won one of them.
NY Times: Robertson Fails in Second Test as Closer, Giving Up 4 Runs
If Dave Robertson is going to follow in Rivera’s footsteps, then he, too, must learn this difficult trick. After blowing his first save as Rivera’s successor on Wednesday night, he has the opportunity to show the Yankees how he will respond.
One day after he pitched his way out of a jam to earn his first save of the season, Robertson put himself in the same situation Wednesday, but his good fortune ran out. He gave up four runs in the ninth inning — the first runs he allowed since Aug. 21 — as the Tampa Bay Rays stunned the Yankees, 4-1. The last three runs came on a homer by Matt Joyce.
Robertson was going to give up some runs at some point. It just stinks that it happened last night. Should the AL East come down to a game or two between Tampa Bay and the Yankees at the end of the year, we can look back at two costly blown saves. Last night’s by Robertson and Opening Day by Mo.
On a somewhat related note.
Players A, B, C and D
| player | PA | AB | Hits | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | avg | obp | slg | ops |
| A | 521 | 447 | 114 | 20 | 1 | 18 | 53 | 70 | .255 | .336 | .425 | .761 |
| B | 521 | 476 | 135 | 26 | 1 | 23 | 43 | 99 | .283 | .345 | .488 | .833 |
| C | 521 | 455 | 117 | 24 | 3 | 14 | 47 | 91 | .256 | .327 | .410 | .737 |
| D | 521 | 477 | 117 | 25 | 2 | 15 | 40 | 101 | .246 | .309 | .401 | .710 |
Wednesday, May 9, 2012
The Continuing Evolution of Ivan Nova
Despite an unimpressive ERA of 5.02 and a still less than stellar FIP of 4.83, I think Ivan Nova has shown some genuine development this year, building on his strong pitching from May 28 (the day he really started throwing his slider to good effect) last season. It’s more apparent when you look at his peripheral stats than his RA/ERA though.
| Start | End | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | xFIP | FB% | GB% | LD% | BB/BF | K/BF | HR/FB | BABIP |
| 2010-05-13 | 2011-05-22 | 92 | 101 | 8 | 38 | 52 | 4.97 | 4.39 | 4.23 | 4.58 | 30.4% | 51.4% | 18.2% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 8.4% | .305 |
| 2011-07-15 | 2012-05-08 | 153 | 157 | 17 | 47 | 108 | 3.89 | 3.83 | 3.96 | 3.88 | 30.2% | 51.1% | 18.6% | 7.3% | 16.7% | 11.6% | .300 |
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
xFIP: Expected fielding independent-pitching
FB%: Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
GB%: Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
LD%: Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
BB/BF: Walks per batters faced
K/BF: Strikeouts per batters faced
HR/FB: HRs divided by fly balls
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play against
The key numbers here are the improved walk rate and strikeout rate, and that’s even more apparent if you look at just 2012.
| Start | End | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | xFIP | FB% | GB% | LD% | BB/BF | K/BF | HR/FB | BABIP |
| 2012-04-09 | 2012-05-08 | 38 | 51 | 8 | 11 | 36 | 5.02 | 5.02 | 4.73 | 3.64 | 36.4% | 44.6% | 19.0% | 6.5% | 21.2% | 18.2% | .381 |
Nova’s RA and ERA this year are skewed by a much higher than normal HR/FB rate and a well above league average BABIP against. Now it’s worth noting that he may have improved his walk rate and strikeout rate by attacking the strike zone more and is missing in the middle of the plate more often because of that, so he may still have some work to do to get those two numbers back down to respectability. From his interviews I get the sense that Nova’s an intelligent pitcher who is still honing his craft and has a pretty good chance to continue making the adjustments he has to make to become a better pitcher than he already is. I suppose I should mention that his overall fly ball rate has increased which is probably a bad thing in terms of his HR and XBH rate, but it should also lead to a lower BABIP against, particularly when he gets Brett Gardner back behind him in LF.
In a lot of ways, it’s more fun to watch a prospect who wasn’t really highly touted surpass expectations than a top prospect who comes into the league with guns ablazing, not that us Yankee fans would have any idea of the latter. We saw the development of Robinson Cano from guy the Yankees tried to trade about 20 times to an All-Star until he fell off the cliff after his age 28 season, and we may be seeing the same thing with Nova.
I’m not saying he’s going to be an ace, because it’s pretty freaking hard to become one. But he sure looks like a guy on his way to surpassing his 4th/5th starter “ceiling”.
Tuesday, May 8, 2012
Yankees.com: Ibanez’s homers return Nova to win column
Nova turned in arguably his best outing of the season during a rainy evening at Yankee Stadium, striking out eight and leading the Yankees to a 5-3 win over the Rays that saw former setup man David Robertson record his first save since Mariano Rivera sustained a season-ending right knee injury last week in Kansas City.
Raul Ibanez homered twice, including a long two-run blast, and Curtis Granderson belted a solo shot, his 10th of the year, to provide the offense as the Yankees toppled James Shields, posting their third victory in four games.
This game felt like a playoff game to me, and it was a tight one with a lot of tension and drama. Nova was very good except for the continued HR issue he’s been having this year, and he reward Joe Girardi’s faith by pitching out of a big jam to end the 7th in what may have been the key point in the game.
Robertson got his first save of the year, hopefully the first of many, although it took loading the bases and facing Carlos Pena to get it. I’m not worried about Robertson at all, but I do have concerns about the bridge to him.
And I have to say that I’m happy to see Ibanez exceeding my admittedly low expectations for him. He seems like a good guy and I hope he can continue to do so.
But mostly it was nice to finally beat the Rays after losing seven straight to them going back to last year, although some of those losses felt like wins.
Yankees.com: Pettitte will make Yankees return on Sunday
NEW YORK—The Yankees plan to add Andy Pettitte to their active roster and have him pitch on Sunday against the Seattle Mariners, general manager Brian Cashman said Tuesday.
“I think everyone is in agreement, he’s not going to benefit from any more time down there [in the Minor Leagues],” Cashman said.
I thought for sure he’d get another start in the minors, but I was clearly wrong. Hopefully he’s ready.
The Postseason Implications of This Week’s Series with Tampa Bay
The Yankees begin a six game homestand tonight with Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is tied for first place with Baltimore, but it’s a pretty safe bet that they’re better than Baltimore and are a bigger threat to the Yankees’ chances at winning the division.
At the beginning of the season, the Yankees projected about three games better than Tampa Bay (94 wins vs. 91 wins) but the Rays now have a 3.5 game lead and the Yankees are a bit weaker with Michael Pineda on the shelf. Based on what’s happened so far and playing out the rest of the season according to how the teams project going forward gives me a final AL East standings projection that looks something like this.
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | 91 | 71 | 761 | 682 | 44.6% | 26.0% | 12.8% | 83.4% | 2.1 | -4 | -1 |
| Yankees | 91 | 71 | 833 | 718 | 42.8% | 26.0% | 13.2% | 82.0% | -3.7 | -4 | 6 |
| Red Sox | 84 | 78 | 841 | 769 | 6.9% | 9.2% | 16.6% | 32.7% | -7.1 | 12 | 35 |
| Blue Jays | 82 | 80 | 773 | 755 | 4.9% | 8.3% | 13.4% | 26.6% | 1.2 | 0 | -21 |
| Orioles | 78 | 84 | 719 | 783 | 0.9% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 8.3 | 6 | -36 |
W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: 2012 revised projected wins minus 2012 pre-season projected wins
RS+/-: 2012 revised projected runs scored minus 2012 pre-season projected runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2012 revised projected runs allowed minus 2012 pre-season projected runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)
The pitching matchups for this series are as follows.
Tuesday, May 8: The Undefeated James Shields (5-0, 3.05 ERA) vs. Ivan Nova (3-1, 5.58 ERA)
Wednesday, May 9: Jeff Niemann (2-3, 4.05 ERA) vs. David Phelps (0-1, 3.74 ERA)
Thursday, May 10: David Price (5-1, 2.35 ERA) vs. CC Sabathia (4-0, 4.15 ERA)
So here are how the standings and postseason odds change based on the various potential outcomes of this series.
| Rays 3-0 | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | 93 | 69 | 761 | 682 | 61.0% | 18.8% | 8.3% | 88.1% | 3.8 | -4 | -1 |
| Yankees | 89 | 73 | 833 | 718 | 26.2% | 28.5% | 17.0% | 71.7% | -5.3 | -4 | 6 |
| Red Sox | 83 | 79 | 841 | 769 | 5.6% | 11.7% | 15.4% | 32.8% | -7.5 | 12 | 35 |
| Blue Jays | 83 | 79 | 773 | 755 | 6.2% | 10.2% | 15.1% | 31.5% | 1.5 | 0 | -21 |
| Orioles | 78 | 84 | 719 | 783 | 1.0% | 2.8% | 5.4% | 9.2% | 8.3 | 6 | -36 |
| Rays 2-1 | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | 92 | 70 | 761 | 682 | 51.9% | 21.4% | 12.5% | 85.7% | 2.7 | -4 | -1 |
| Yankees | 90 | 72 | 833 | 718 | 36.4% | 26.4% | 14.6% | 77.4% | -4.3 | -4 | 6 |
| Red Sox | 83 | 79 | 841 | 769 | 5.6% | 10.5% | 16.7% | 32.8% | -7.4 | 12 | 35 |
| Blue Jays | 83 | 79 | 773 | 755 | 5.4% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 27.9% | 1.4 | 0 | -21 |
| Orioles | 78 | 84 | 719 | 783 | 0.8% | 2.0% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 8.0 | 6 | -36 |
| Yankees 2-1 | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 91 | 71 | 833 | 718 | 44.7% | 24.9% | 13.9% | 83.5% | -3.4 | -4 | 6 |
| Rays | 91 | 71 | 761 | 682 | 40.4% | 24.5% | 13.2% | 78.1% | 1.8 | -4 | -1 |
| Red Sox | 83 | 79 | 841 | 769 | 7.9% | 9.9% | 16.1% | 34.0% | -7.2 | 12 | 35 |
| Blue Jays | 82 | 80 | 773 | 755 | 5.5% | 8.4% | 12.7% | 26.5% | 1.2 | 0 | -21 |
| Orioles | 78 | 84 | 719 | 783 | 1.5% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 10.2% | 8.2 | 6 | -36 |
| Yankees 3-0 | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 92 | 70 | 833 | 718 | 52.1% | 22.1% | 11.3% | 85.5% | -2.6 | -4 | 6 |
| Rays | 90 | 72 | 761 | 682 | 33.9% | 26.6% | 15.7% | 76.2% | 0.8 | -4 | -1 |
| Red Sox | 84 | 78 | 841 | 769 | 7.7% | 11.2% | 15.1% | 34.0% | -7.1 | 12 | 35 |
| Blue Jays | 82 | 80 | 773 | 755 | 5.1% | 7.6% | 14.5% | 27.2% | 1.2 | 0 | -21 |
| Orioles | 78 | 84 | 719 | 783 | 1.1% | 2.4% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 8.4 | 6 | -36 |
Sure, it’s early. And yes, the Yankees play the Rays enough times over the rest of the season to make up any ground they lose in this series, but this is still a pretty important series. You might even say it’s the most important series of the season so far.
Monday, May 7, 2012
David Robertson’s Heat Maps
Although there really isn’t a lot of data on Robertson to this point in the season, I do think his pitch location is worth noting. He seems to be nailing that outside edge vs. LHB consistently.
However, it’s right handed batters that are really coming up empty against Robertson this year; he’s faced 21 RHB and struck out 11 of them.
David Robertson vs. RHB
| P | PA | AVG | OBP | SLUG | wOBA | BABIP | K% | BB% | HR% | HR/FB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 Season | 464 | 108 | .237 | .343 | .409 | .334 | .345 | 30.6% | 13.0% | 2.2% | 7.7% |
| 2010 Season | 661 | 155 | .250 | .329 | .364 | .302 | .316 | 23.9% | 9.7% | 2.3% | 8.3% |
| 2011 Season | 612 | 130 | .186 | .292 | .257 | .257 | .286 | 32.3% | 12.3% | 0.9% | 3.3% |
| 2012 Season | 93 | 21 | .105 | .190 | .158 | .170 | .250 | 52.4% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Robertson has thrown 106 cutters this season, recording nine strike outs and yielding five hits in 22 plate appearances. Batters are chasing the pitch out of the strike zone at a rate of 26.7%. Last season, his chase% on cutters was 19.3%.
Similarly, his fastball is getting batters to chase 31.4% compared to 20.3% between 2008 and 2011. Robertson has recorded eight strike outs on his fastball this season while giving up two hits in fifteen plate appearances. He’s actually relying on his cutter more as he’s thrown only 74 fastballs to this point. His cutter and fastball come in at roughly the same velocity (92.7 MPH and 93.0 MPH respectively since 2011). Batters might be finding it difficult to identify between the two pitches, resulting in his fairly high strike out rate to this point. I remember Russell Martin mentioning last season that Robertson’s cutter explodes at the end, much like Mo’s.
Robertson only started throwing the cutter last season; I can’t help wondering what part Mariano may have played in helping him develop the pitch.
Poughkeepsie Journal: Andy Pettitte says he’s ready for the big stage
“I’m going to let them, let everybody, know what we’ve got going on,” Pettitte told reporters in Rochester. “I feel like I’m ready, and I think they’re ready for me to come up.”
In his sixth minor-league start since coming out of retirement in March, Pettitte pitched five innings for Class AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Only three of Pettitte’s five runs were earned, but he gave up eight hits and walked two. He allowed 10 hits in his previous minor-league start in extended spring training.
Pettitte hasn’t gotten really good results over his last two starts for AA Trenton and the AAA Barnstorming Yankees. He’s allowed 15 hits and 9 runs over 10 innings while walking 3 and striking out 8. That doesn’t really mean all that much though, since he’s probably working on getting right physically and less concerned about shutting down the other team.
That being said, I’m guessing the Yankees will have him make one more start in the minors before recalling him. They still have to get him on the 40 man roster and they probably don’t want to make a roster move until they have a better idea of the health of Brett Gardner and Nick Swisher. David Phelps has probably also earned at least one more start to show the Yankees a little bit more about what they might have with him.
I suppose they could move Cesar Cabral and/or Brad Meyers to the 60 day DL in a pinch to handle the 40 man roster situation, but I’m not sure who would go from the 25 man to get Pettitte on. Probably Cody Eppley.
Sunday, May 6, 2012
Yankees.com: Hughes makes Yankees’ outburst hold up
KANSAS CITY—Phil Hughes brought more than just an extra-zippy fastball with him as he returned to the mound for the seventh inning on Sunday. He seemed to be carrying a few extra ounces of his manager’s trust.
Hughes’ strong effort earned him a chance to head back out and wrap up an impressive day of work in which he made a big lead stand up for a 10-4 win over the Royals that figures to keep him in the Yankees’ starting rotation.
I just finished watching my DVR of the game, and Hughes looked the best he’s looked all year. He was hitting 95 in the 7th inning and was actually somewhat efficient for most of the game, getting through several innings with fewer than 20 pitches. I’m still not sure he’s going to end the year as an effective member of the starting rotation, but over his last four starts he’s walked 4.4% of the batters he’s faced while striking out 21.1%. A ratio like that is generally an indicator of someone who can be a successful pitcher, even if his 7.52 RA over that stretch disagrees.
The lineup looks a lot better with Nick Swisher back in it, and hopefully he’ll be joined by Brett Gardner soon, and then maybe the Yankees can move out of fourth place.
Friday, May 4, 2012
Yankees.com: CC wins fourth straight after Yanks erupt late
KANSAS CITY—Eduardo Nunez’s go-ahead RBI triple opened the floodgates in a four-run seventh inning as the Yankees rallied to top the Royals, 6-2, on Friday at Kauffman Stadium.
Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter also homered as New York snapped its three-game losing skid behind eight strong innings from ace CC Sabathia, who won his fourth straight start.
That was a much needed win, more to regain sanity than anything else.
Also, For now, Robertson, Soriano will split ninth.
This seems like a good idea if it means using Robertson in the higher leverage situations.
USA Today: Reggie Jackson: Rivera ‘would definitely like to’ pitch in 2013
New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera privately told friends he planned all along to continue pitching at least one more season in 2013, and now that he’s facing season-ending knee surgery, Yankees executive Reggie Jackson believes he’ll definitely try to return.
Hmmm.
MLB: Gammons: Civil Mariano garners respect like no other
“Good call,” laughed Showalter. “Mariano Rivera. Remember the name.”
A year later, in 1995, Showalter brought Rivera to the Yankees. Seventeen years later we all remember the name of the greatest relief pitcher in baseball history. I’ve never forgotten that moment in Spring Training, because in more than 40 years of covering baseball, Rivera is the person I most respect. “I think everyone who knows him feels the same way,” Derek Jeter said this spring.
I know Peter Gammons isn’t a particularly popular writer around these parts, but he’s always been one of Mo’s biggest boosters and I thought this was an interesting article.
YES: Rivera on torn ACL
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I’m not the emotional type, but I teared up a little watching this. According to Mariano Rivera he has both a torn ACL and meniscus. I have no idea how hard the rehab for that is, but I’d imagine it’s not easy.
I really hope this isn’t the end for Mo. I didn’t want him to retire after this year, but I figured at least we’d have the chance to appreciate his greatness for another five months. Now that’s gone, and frankly it changes the entire season for me. The Yankees are still a good team. You could make the sacrilegious case that David Robertson is better than Rivera, and the Yankees will lose little in the closer department. But Rafael Soriano isn’t as good as David Robertson. Then again, Cory Wade is better than Soriano so the 7th inning got upgraded.
But it’s not about wins. It’s about no longer watching someone who may have done his job(even if you discount the job itself) on the baseball field better than anyone else ever. How many current fans can say they saw the best player ever in his role ply his trade? Yankee fans can.
Thursday, May 3, 2012
Yankees.com: Mariano twists right knee while shagging flies
KANSAS CITY—The Yankees prepared for Thursday’s game against the Royals with their fingers crossed after closer Mariano Rivera crumpled on the outfield warning track while shagging fly balls during batting practice.
The club said that the preliminary diagnosis of Rivera’s injury is a twisted right knee, but the 42-year-old all-time saves leader is being sent for an MRI during Thursday’s game.
He was examined on-site at Kauffman Stadium by Royals associate physician Joseph Noland, as well as the Yankees’ training staff.
Once this happened the result of tonight’s game seemed meaningless to me. Here’s hoping we get good news.
Anyway, the Yankees lost, the first home game the Royals have won all year in 11 tries. I’d be shocked if they didn’t win their second tomorrow.
Update: Lohud: Jennings: Torn ACL diagnosis for Rivera
The early diagnosis for Mariano Rivera is a torn ACL. He will be checked again in New York, but this almost certainly means hes out for the season.
You know what? Eff this season.
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
NJ.com: Carig: Phil Hughes is just okay for Yankees in 7-1 loss to Orioles
In what ultimately went down as a 7-1 loss to the Orioles, Hughes gave his team a chance to win, departing with the Yankees trailing only by two runs.
For others, allowing four runs in 5⅔ innings is hardly a cause for celebration. But for Hughes, whose season until Tuesday night had been marked by short, brutish appearances, it was a step forward.
It was tentative step, but a step nonetheless, and both Hughes and the Yankees seemed eager to take it.
Perhaps it is why the crowd gave the pitcher a lukewarm round of applause, despite the fact that Hughes displayed some of the same issues that have plagued him all year.
It was almost certainly Hughes’s best start of the year, but it still wasn’t a great one. I did see enough to think that if Hughes eventually winds up back in the bullpen, he’ll be pretty good there, because he got his fastball up to 95 and he probably had his best curve of the year on top of it. Until Andy Pettitte is ready to return Hughes is safe in the rotation, but it’ll be interesting to see what happens if David Phelps outpitches him in the rotation until then.
As for the rest of the team, feh. Aside from Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson,there’s really no compelling reason to watch them right now. I don’t expect it to last, but that doesn’t mean it’s not frustrating to watch right now.
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
American League K-Rates

All qualifying AL relievers 2009

All AL relievers from 2011 to April 30th, 2012
The bottom list makes me happy. The top makes me a little sad.
Monday, April 30, 2012
Yankees.com: Efficient Kuroda helps own cause to top O’s
NEW YORK—Hiroki Kuroda turned in a stellar seven-inning effort and Eric Chavez slugged a two-run homer, as the Yankees defeated the Orioles, 2-1, on Monday at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees received a strong starting performance for a second straight day, as Kuroda followed up CC Sabathia’s winning effort with a gem of his own, permitting just one run on four hits and saving the lead with his own defensive play at home plate.
Kuroda looked like he had nothing over the first two innings as seemingly every ball was hit hard, but he settled down nicely to give the Yankees seven innings of one-run ball. His final play of the game was probably the most important one. The Orioles had the tying run on third and the go-ahead run on second with two outs in the seventh when a pitch got away from Russell Martin. It rolled into foul territory but not all that far and the Orioles gambled by sending the runner but Martin was able to retrieve the ball and flip it to Kuroda who beat the runner to the plate and applied the tag to the end the inning. The Orioles could not muster anything against David Robertson or Mariano Rivera over the final two innings and the Yankees had a nice win in a rare briskly played pitcher’s duel.
I’m enjoying watching Kuroda pitch so far and hope he can keep it going. I’d take a 3.69 ERA from him over the rest of the year.
I was not particularly enamored with the Eric Chavez re-signing, but so far he’s been great. I don’t know if he’ll stay healthy or keep it up all year, but he’s probably already been worth his salary.
MLB.com: Yanks move Garcia to ‘pen, Phelps to rotation
NEW YORK—Freddy Garcia has been dispatched to the Yankees’ bullpen, and rookie David Phelps will have an opportunity to pitch out of the club’s rotation.
Garcia was battered by the Tigers for six runs in 1 2/3 innings on Saturday in a 7-5 Yankees loss, the second straight start Garcia only recorded five outs, and the change did not come as a shock to the hurler.
“When you’re pitching [poorly] out of the rotation, what do you expect?” Garcia said. “When you don’t do your job, what are they supposed to do? That’s what happened. They’re honest. I didn’t pitch the way I was supposed to pitch. It’s reality.”
I don’t think Garcia’s as bad as he’s looked so far this year, and his peripherals generally agree. Repeated from yesterday’s game thread.
Garcia 2011: 15.3% K/BF, 7.2% BB/BF, 4.36 xFIP, 87.2 mph average fastball velocity
Garcia 2012: 15.7% K/BF, 7.1% BB/BF, 3.95 xFIP, 87.0 mph average fastball velocity
Unfortunately, there’s also this:
Garcia 2011: .292 BABIP against, 22.3% LD, 8.2% HR/FB, 77.1% LOB
Garcia 2012: .440 BABIP against, 42.3% LD, 23.1% HR/FB, 41.0% LOB
I get the feeling that Garcia will get another chance to start at some point, and will probably do ok if he does. That being said, I think removing him from the rotation for now is the right thing to do, moreso to see what the Yankees have in David Phelps, but also to give Garcia a chance to regroup.
As far as what the Yankees have in Phelps, I have no idea. He’s pitched pretty well this year, but that’s the extent of his MLB resume. His projections are all based on translating his minor league numbers and have huge error bars because of that. Rather than rehash those, I’ll. just point you to his pre-season projections.
If all we knew about Phelps was what he’d done as a reliever at the big league level (17.2 IP of 3.57 ERA), we could try and fudge how that would translate to a starter. In general, a reliever who moves to the rotation will be about 15-20% less effective. Hits, homers and runs will go up by 15-20%, strike outs will drop by about the same rate. Walk rate stays pretty stable. If you were to use his performance so far to project him as a starter and reliever, it’d look something like this.
| Role | W | L | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starter | 7 | 7 | 20 | 20 | 120 | 93 | 58 | 34 | 45 | 82 | 4.35 |
| Reliever | 4 | 3 | 70 | 0 | 70 | 48 | 28 | 16 | 28 | 55 | 3.60 |
The problem here is that it’s probably not realistic to think Phelps can hold hitters to a .178 BABIP all year. FIP has him at 5.66 and xFIP has him at 4.09. Splitting the difference puts him at around 4.87. That’s a hair better than his average ERA projection heading into the year, and although it’s not great, it’s better than what they’ve gotten out of Garcia at least. And Phil Hughes, for that matter.
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Does Derek Jeter now project to hit .300?
Like most stat-heads, I know that batting average is not really a good gauge of how good a player is. That doesn’t mean it’s useless, just that there are better stats to tell us how valuable a player is.
Despite that, I can’t help but find a .300 average more aesthetically pleasing than an average of .299 or less. Derek Jeter’s made a Hall of Fame career based primarily on hitting .300 or better (.314 career), but after his disappointing 2010 it seemed like those days were over. He rode a second-half hot streak in 2011 to the cusp of yet another .300 season, but his bid fell short in the season finale.
With his 2 for 3 earlier today Jeter now sits at .396/.440/.593 with nearly a month of the season over. I’m going to go out on a limb and say he will not finish the year at .396, since I hate him and all. But I wondered if he should now project to end the year at .300.
I can try and figure this out by running a revised CAIRO for Jeter including the data we have for 2012, then adding that revised projection to what he’s already done. It looks like this.
| player | projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| Derek Jeter | original | 644 | 576 | 91 | 165 | 25 | 2 | 9 | 63 | 18 | 5 | 54 | 92 | .286 | .350 | .384 |
| Derek Jeter | ROY | 562 | 504 | 80 | 149 | 23 | 1 | 9 | 57 | 15 | 5 | 46 | 79 | .295 | .356 | .402 |
| Derek Jeter | revised | 658 | 592 | 95 | 183 | 29 | 1 | 13 | 70 | 16 | 6 | 52 | 90 | .309 | .364 | .430 |
ROY: Rest of year projection.
revised: ROY plus 2012 performance
Jeter’s hot April has revised his CAIRO projection from .286/.350/.384 to .295/.356/.402. Adding that to what he’s done has him ending the year with a line of .309/.364/.430, which would make him worth close to 20 runs more than projected entering the year. ZiPS was less sanguine about Jeter heading into this season, but its revised projection has moved from .268/.329/.362 to .281/.341/.386 which is actually a bigger improvement relative to its orginal projection than CAIRO’s.
I’ll admit, I didn’t think he still had it in him. I’m happy to have been wrong so far, and hope I continue to be even wronger.
Yankees.com: CC sharp as Yankees take series from Tigers
NEW YORK—CC Sabathia turned in his sharpest outing of the young season, Curtis Granderson homered and drove in a pair of runs and the Yankees defeated the Tigers, 6-2, on Sunday at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees scraped together just enough from their numerous opportunities to score against Tigers starter Max Scherzer, posting a victory even after stranding an eye-popping 15 men on base.
Hoping for a deep outing to assist a taxed bullpen, the Yankees got what they needed from Sabathia, as the ace left-hander pitched eight innings and limited the Tigers to two runs as he charged to his third consecutive victory.
I guess we can stop worrying about CC for now.
Nick Swisher left the game with a low-grade hamstring strain, which may not necessarily require a DL stint, but will probably keep him out of action for a few games. I guess this means more Raul Ibanez follies in the OF.
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Yankees.com: Garcia ousted early as rallying Yanks fall
NEW YORK—Freddy Garcia is long removed from blowing fastballs by hitters, but he found a second life as a soft-tosser who hit the corners exceptionally. Those days, too, seem to be fading further and further into the rear-view mirror.
Loud boos showered the veteran as he was sent to a second-inning exit on Saturday, and Garcia may have pitched himself out of New York’s rotation with his latest clunker, hit hard for six runs as the Tigers defeated the Yankees, 7-5, at Yankee Stadium.
We can now complete SG’s trend line for Freddy:
April 10: 4.2 IP, 4 R
April 16: 5.2 IP, 5 R
April 21: 1.2 IP, 5 R
April 28: 1.2 IP, 6 R
Friday, April 27, 2012
Yankees.com: Yanks use passed ball to walk off vs. Tigers
NEW YORK—Derek Jeter raced home to score the winning run on a passed ball in the bottom of the ninth inning as the Yankees defeated the Tigers, 7-6, on Friday at Yankee Stadium.
Brayan Villarreal recorded the first out of the ninth inning, but Jeter walked and moved to third base on a wild pitch as Curtis Granderson walked.
The last pitch skipped away from catcher Alex Avila and rolled to the backstop as Alex Rodriguez waved home Jeter, who slid home and called himself safe as Villarreal couldn’t catch the throw to the plate.
The play of the game, of course, was this defensive gem. The hat flying off as he slides/falls-flat-on-his-face is what makes it for me.
Hurry back, Brett.
NYDN: Cashman avoids bad press, fan outrage over Montero trade for injured Pineda
When it came to legit Cashman pitching blunders, whether it be A.J. Burnett, Kei Igawa, Carl Pavano or Jeff Weaver, the GM didn’t exactly skate, but his relationship with certain reporters, and the respect many others have for him, softened what could have been severe body blows.
Only now it will be fascinating to watch how Cashman’s relationship with the media evolves going forward. By normal Yankees standards, the pitching is in shambles, filled with inconsistent arms after CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova take their turns in the rotation.
I’m bringing back the complaint thread. If you don’t like them, don’t read this.
The impact of the Pineda injury is huge. If the Yankees were looking at Pineda as a 3-4 win player, it probably would have helped them move towards the $189 payroll in 2014 that they’ve been eyeing. Not having him for 2012, and possibly never having him, should possibly change the organization’s plans. I don’t know if it will, but let’s think about it logically.
- Say the Yankees were a 95 win team with Pineda, and that losing him makes them a 93 win team (assuming they get better than replacement level pitching from his replacement(s))
- In 2013, with just about every key player on the team likely to be worse since they’re past the age of the typical player’s peak, what would they be then? An 88 win team?
-Now subtract Mo, Hiroki Kuroda, Nick Swisher and Russell Martin from that. Say that’s 10 wins. So now what, 78 wins?
-They have $120M committed to 2013, without including arbitration salaries for Brett Gardner, Phil Hughes, Boone Logan, Joba Chamberlain and David Robertson. Giving them a 20% raise bumps the payroll commitment to about $135M or so.
-Assume that 90 wins is the target to qualify for the second wild card in most seasons. So the Yankees need to add about 12 wins for $54M to get to 90 wins in 2013, and that really just puts them on the periphery of the wild card race.
You probably can’t buy 12 wins for $54M on the free agent market due to what’s available and how it fits your roster as well as with competition from other teams. The better free agents are probably not going to want to settle for one year contracts and anything longer than that impacts the 2014 payroll.
Maybe they can replace Pineda’s wins with someone from the farm, although at this point it sure doesn’t seem like Dellin Betances or Manny Banuelos are ready and the other arms behind them are either too far away or don’t project to be much more than back-end guys. They don’t have the position player prospects to replace the hole in RF, at least not for 2013. They could use a rotating DH to fill the hole there, but then that necessitates having a backup player or two that you’re comfortable playing in the field every day. I don’t know if Eduardo Nunez is that guy given his defensive issues and the uncertainty of his offense. Martin’s not making much of a case to be retained, but the falloff from him to some combination of Francisco Cervelli, Austin Romine or Chris Stewart is probably still significant.
Because of that, the only way I can see the Yankees being competitive in 2013 is going over the $189M payroll target. If they’re not going to do that, I’d suggest rebuilding, but they don’t have anyone trade-able that would help reduce their payroll. Is anyone really going to take Rodriguez or Mark Teixeira off their hands?
As of now the Yankees only have $75M commited to the 2014 payroll. However, that number only includes CC Sabathia, Rodriguez, Teixeira and a $3M Derek Jeter buyout. They’d still have arbitration rights to Gardner, Robertson, Pineda, Ivan Nova, Nunez, Cervelli, Stewart and Ramiro Pena. How many games would that team win?
I understand the benefit to getting under the salary cap limit, but if the trade-off is a crappy team that will draw fewer fans and make less revenue it may not be worth it.
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Seattle Times: Stone: The dreaded labrum: Five case studies
Here are five case studies, three of them successful comebacks (Chris Carpenter, Trevor Hoffman and Jon Rauch), one of them unsuccessful (Jason Schmidt), and one of them still in progress (Casey Janssen). All were reported as having surgeries to repair a torn labrum, but keep in mind that I don’t really know how similar the operations were to Bedard’s.
This article’s two years old, and it was written in regard to Erik Bedard trying to come back from a labrum tear of his own, but it does provide some examples of what may be in store for Michael Pineda following his surgery and attempted recovery. I suppose we can also add Bedard to the mix. He’s seemingly recovered most of his effectiveness, although his durability is almost non-existent.
Some other pitchers who suffered labrum tears include Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Brandon Webb, Ted Lilly, Jeff Francis and Ben Sheets. Clemens, Schilling and Lilly were able to recover pretty well from them. Webb and Sheets thus far have not recovered to the point of being effective MLB pitchers again. Francis is still trying, but it doesn’t look particularly good for him.
NY Times: Yankees Lose Pineda for Season, and Hughes Adds to Worries
ARLI
NGTON, Tex. — It was a dreary day for the Yankees’ pitching rotation Wednesday, as news about Michael Pineda’s season-ending injury was followed by a bad outing from one of the pitchers the Yankees hope can make up for Pineda’s loss.
IIn the afternoon, the Yankees announced that Pineda had a torn labrum in his right shoulder and would miss the season, and the first month of next year. Several hours later, Phil Hughes compounded the problem.
I wanted to try and show the projected impact of losing Pineda, but at this point given the fact that those innings are going to be replaced by some combination of Hughes, Freddy Garcia and Andy Pettitte I don’t think I can do it. I have no idea how to project any of them right now. Hughes and Garcia are worse than replacement level and I’m not sure they’ll be better than that at any point this year. With Pettitte we have the uncertainty of what a year off may have done to him.
If we assume Pineda’s replaced by replacement level innings, the Yankees lose about three wins. Hopefully it’s not worse than that.
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Mike Francesa: Bad News on Pineda Coming Shortly
Let the speculation run rampant.
Lohud: Jennings: Pineda having labral surgery
Michael Pineda has been diagnosed with a right anterior labral tear and will have surgery next Tuesday, May 1.
Not much to say about this, other than it stinks.
2012 MLB Starting Pitching Through April 24
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| Team | IP | TBF | RA | ERA | FIP | xFIP | BB/BF | K/BF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 104.7 | 401 | 2.15 | 1.72 | 2.03 | 2.85 | 5.5% | 24.2% |
| Cardinals | 112.0 | 439 | 2.73 | 2.57 | 3.06 | 3.42 | 5.7% | 17.8% |
| Rangers | 120.7 | 497 | 2.83 | 2.76 | 3.25 | 3.90 | 7.6% | 19.1% |
| Pirates | 86.7 | 354 | 3.01 | 2.8 | 3.10 | 3.86 | 7.3% | 14.7% |
| Phillies | 117.3 | 473 | 3.14 | 2.84 | 3.17 | 3.20 | 5.3% | 20.1% |
| White Sox | 110.7 | 442 | 3.17 | 3.09 | 3.42 | 3.63 | 7.9% | 23.8% |
| Athletics | 122.0 | 495 | 3.32 | 2.95 | 3.63 | 4.19 | 6.1% | 13.3% |
| Marlins | 100.3 | 414 | 3.50 | 3.41 | 3.30 | 3.51 | 6.5% | 18.4% |
| Giants | 107.7 | 439 | 3.59 | 3.51 | 3.66 | 3.80 | 6.8% | 19.6% |
| Dodgers | 104.7 | 435 | 3.61 | 3.01 | 3.63 | 3.80 | 9.4% | 21.8% |
| Rays | 107.3 | 453 | 3.77 | 3.44 | 4.16 | 4.31 | 9.9% | 16.1% |
| Blue Jays | 109.7 | 443 | 4.02 | 3.78 | 5.45 | 4.32 | 9.3% | 13.5% |
| Tigers | 95.3 | 406 | 4.25 | 3.87 | 3.29 | 3.43 | 6.2% | 21.4% |
| Reds | 106.0 | 448 | 4.42 | 3.99 | 3.92 | 4.23 | 6.5% | 14.3% |
| Angels | 106.0 | 440 | 4.50 | 4.33 | 4.24 | 3.40 | 5.9% | 20.2% |
| Mariners | 107.7 | 454 | 4.51 | 4.43 | 3.62 | 3.88 | 5.9% | 18.3% |
| Mets | 96.3 | 418 | 4.58 | 3.92 | 3.62 | 3.25 | 7.7% | 20.8% |
| Indians | 84.0 | 367 | 4.61 | 4.18 | 4.19 | 4.31 | 9.0% | 13.9% |
| Astros | 108.3 | 466 | 4.65 | 4.24 | 4.14 | 4.02 | 8.2% | 16.7% |
| Diamondbacks | 108.0 | 456 | 4.75 | 4.33 | 4.17 | 3.68 | 7.5% | 18.4% |
| Cubs | 106.0 | 455 | 4.75 | 4.25 | 3.42 | 3.63 | 8.8% | 21.8% |
| Braves | 101.7 | 430 | 4.78 | 4.16 | 3.80 | 3.99 | 9.1% | 19.3% |
| Brewers | 102.7 | 441 | 4.91 | 4.82 | 3.91 | 3.60 | 7.0% | 21.8% |
| Padres | 104.0 | 445 | 4.93 | 4.15 | 3.92 | 3.85 | 11.0% | 19.8% |
| Orioles | 100.3 | 433 | 5.02 | 4.22 | 4.33 | 4.15 | 9.5% | 18.7% |
| Royals | 88.0 | 386 | 5.32 | 4.81 | 4.11 | 4.49 | 11.7% | 16.8% |
| Rockies | 88.3 | 390 | 5.40 | 4.89 | 4.96 | 4.83 | 9.5% | 12.6% |
| Red Sox | 94.3 | 413 | 5.72 | 5.63 | 4.92 | 4.22 | 9.9% | 17.9% |
| Yankees | 96.3 | 427 | 6.17 | 5.51 | 4.35 | 3.44 | 6.1% | 21.1% |
| Twins | 95.0 | 423 | 7.01 | 6.73 | 5.50 | 4.38 | 6.9% | 13.0% |
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
xFIP: Expected fielding-independent pitching
Twins pitching vs. the Yankees: 2-2, 6.09 RA
Twins pitching vs. the rest of the league: 3-11, 5.88 RA
Remember how the Yankees’ starting pitching was supposed to be a strength? Now they’re hoping a 40 year old who hasn’t pitched in a year can ride in and save the day.
CC should be fine. I think Nova’s a good bet for continued success thanks to the big improvement in his peripherals. Whether that makes him a 2 or a 3 I don’t know, but it’s probably safer to think he’s a 3. Kuroda will also be ok I think, but I don’t think he’s a 2 in the AL. It’d be nice if Phil Hughes wasn’t awful, because with Michael Pineda looking less and less likely to pitch this year Andy Pettitte could in theory fill one hole between Hughes and Freddy Garcia, but he can’t fill two. My guess is Garcia’s start on Saturday will be his last for this turn in the rotation.
Despite what they’ve shown to date I’d bet a reasonable amount of money the Yankees will not remain the second worst starting rotation in MLB by the end of the year. I think they have a chance to crack the top 20.
North Jersey: Yanks notes:Michael Pineda gets another opinion
Michael Pineda is headed for another exam on his ailing right shoulder, as per his agent’s request for a second opinion. The Yankees were awaiting results on Pineda’s initial New York exam Tuesday by club physician Chris Ahmad. Today, Pineda is scheduled to be examined by David Altchek, the Mets’ team physician.
Really? The METS’ team physician? Ugh.
Did you know that Jesus Montero’s .254/.270/.373 line playing half his games in Safeco would be .328/.406/.590 if he played half his games in DNYS instead?
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Yankees.com: With 10 Ks, Darvish breezes past Yanks
ARLINGTON—Right-hander Yu Darvish was electric across 8 1/3 innings, leading the Rangers to a 2-0 victory over the Yankees at Rangers Ballpark on Tuesday night.
Darvish, helped by a couple of outstanding plays by shortstop Elvis Andrus, outpitched Yankees starter Hiroki Kuroda in only the seventh game in Major League history to be started by two Japanese-born pitchers.
Darvish was really good, and Kuroda was good as well. I can’t wait to read all the awful ‘Yu’ puns in the NY fish wraps tomorrow.
Monday, April 23, 2012
Yankees.com: Jeter’s four hits help CC top Texas
ARLINGTON—The Yankees believed their trip to Texas could be a good measurement of how they would stack up against the American League’s best competition thus far, and the early results suggest they’re doing just fine.
CC Sabathia pitched eight innings in what was arguably his sharpest start of the young season, Alex Rodriguez homered and Derek Jeter banged out four hits as the Yankees defeated the Rangers, 7-4, on Monday at Rangers Ballpark.
I think Sabathia pitched much better than the four runs allowed would have you believe. Fortunately for him his offense gave him seven runs so it can be considered a gutsy performance instead of a disappointing one.
Derek Jeter’s continuing resurgence is the story of the season so far though in my mind. He now leads the AL in hits and these aren’t cheap for the most part. He’s hitting the ball hard to the outfield consistently and it’s been great to watch.
If the Yankees can take one of the next two games, this road trip will have been a resounding success.
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Yankees.com: Down nine early, gutsy Yanks stun Boston
BOSTON—Nick Swisher drove in six runs, including a grand slam, and Mark Teixeira homered twice as the Yankees scored 15 unanswered runs and charged back from nine runs down, stunning the Red Sox, 15-9, on Saturday at Fenway Park.
Swisher connected for his first grand slam in a Yankees uniform as part of a seven-run seventh inning against three Boston relievers that also included a three-run Teixeira blast, as 11 Yankees batters came to the plate in the frame.
Facing former Yankees righty Alfredo Aceves in the eighth, Swisher belted the go-ahead hit, a two-run double to deep center field, as New York also batted around in that seven-run frame. Aceves had been manager Bobby Valentine’s last resort in a game that the Red Sox led, 9-0, after five innings.
I guess I shouldn’t have turned the game off after the second inning.
Friday, April 20, 2012
Crashing the Party
I decided to make use of my field pass during Yankees' batting practice on Friday afternoon. I figured that I should make the most of it before somebody wised up and revoked it.
Trying to remain as incognito as possible, I snapped off a few pictures using my phone (hence the poor picture quality). Click on any of them to enlarge.

I took this shot just as the Red Sox were finishing up their BP - all the Yankees were still in the dugout getting ready to come out and stretch.

Papelbon is right, Mo has a great smile.

CHB asked asked A-Rod about his favorite Fenway moments. I believe A-Rod mentioned his first major league game in July of 1994.

One of the funnier moments I witnessed was when Nick Swisher came into the dugout before taking BP. Russell Martin was just about to sit down with a reporter from a Canadian news outlet, and Swisher started yelling out, "French time? Time for French!?"
Another interesting thing I caught was Swisher talking to Ibanez about the difference between Yankee Stadium's short porch and the wall in left at Fenway. He said something about how if you get jammed at Yankee Stadium, you won't be able to muscle it out; but you can get jammed and still go deep over the monster. Or maybe it was the other way around. The funny thing was that it almost looked like he got jammed in his first plate appearance on Friday and he actually took it the other way for a HR over the monster.

Kuroda sitting down for an interview with Japanese TV. I only caught one word: Ichiro.
Every time I get an assignment for a Yankee game, I hope to see Mariano Rivera take the mound. So when Cody Eppley came in with a four run lead in the bottom of the ninth, I was a bit disconcerted. However, it only took one single off the bat of Jarrod Saltalamacchia for Girardi to make the inevitable call to the bullpen, and I once again got to see my absolute favorite player in action. Two strike outs and a ground out was all the Red Sox could muster against the greatest closer in baseball history, and the Yankees took the first game of the season series 6-2.
Happy Birthday Fenway.
Yankees.com: After honoring Fenway, Yanks pound Sox
Honoring the oldest operating facility in the big leagues, Boston was attired in replicas of what the club would have worn on April 20, 1912, as the gates along Yawkey Way opened, just five days after the sinking of the Titanic.
The Red Sox won that opening game, 7-6, in 11 innings, but behind a 15th consecutive winning decision from right-hander Ivan Nova and the Yankees’ offensive power, New York spoiled any chances of a historic reprisal early.
Dustin Pedroia dropped a Derek Jeter popup that led to an unearned first-inning run before Swisher and Chavez teed off on Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz for solo homers in the second inning.
Chavez added a second homer in the fourth frame off Buchholz, and Rodriguez slugged the 631st of his big league career over the Green Monster in the fifth, passing former Mariners teammate Ken Griffey Jr. for sole possession of fifth place on the all-time list.
I can’t wait to watch the replay of this one.
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Yankees.com: Yanks’ four homers cost Twins in the Bronx
NEW YORK—The Twins jumped out to an early four-run lead against right-hander Phil Hughes but ultimately couldn’t recover from the three homers hit by Curtis Granderson in a 7-6 loss to the Yankees on Thursday at Yankee Stadium.
Granderson’s began the game hitting .208/.321/.458 and ended it hitting .283/ .377/.679. Not a bad day’s work, and the Yankees needed every single bit of those three HRs.
Just like seemingly every Phil Hughes start so far this year, it was a mixed bag. Eduardo Nunez’s first inning error obviously didn’t help, but Nunez didn’t allow the walk, single and double that followed. After that, Hughes pitched fairly well until the sixth, when he gave up a leadoff walk and a HR to turn a 7-4 game into a 7-6 nail-biter. Fortunately for Hughes, his bullpen was able to shut down the Twins over the final 3.2 innings of the game and the Yankees eked out the 7-6 win and salvaged a disappointing split.
On a side note, Derek Jeter tied David Winfield on the all-time hit list with his second inning RBI single. Winfield’s one of my favorite players ever, and I liked the sentiments he expressed. Jeter’s heading into some really rarefied air now.
Now let’s hope we get to see them go ruin the 100 year anniversary of that disgraceful bandbox in New England.
MLB.com: Colon throws 38 straight strikes
4/18/12: Bartolo Colon threw 82 of his 108 pitches for strikes, including 38 in a row at one point
Prety cool video of all 38 pitches. I’m happy to see Colon doing well, even if I think he’s not a good bet to hold up for a full season.
NY Post: Great grab sends Yankees’ Gardner to DL
The left fielder was scratched before Wednesday night’s game because of a sore right elbow and an MRI exam showed a bruise and a slight strain. He was placed on the 15-day disabled list.
This stinks,
The Yankees called up right-hander Cody Eppley from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to take Gardner’s place. Eppley was claimed from Texas at the end of spring training.
Sure, when you lose your starting LF, call up a right-handed relief specialist.
Gardner’s absence deprives the Yankeess of some speed and they will be forced to use Andruw Jones, Raul Ibanez and Eduardo Nunez more in left.
Yikes.
“His defense is the best part of this team,” said Jones, who had some adventures there last night.
‘
Yes it is Andruw. Yes it is.
Alright, enough snark. What is the impact of this?
Offense is not the issue. In fact, it’s possible a Jones/Ibanez platoon would be more productive at the plate than Gardner, although less so on the bases. Here are their respective CAIRO projections over 100 PA.
| player | pa | avg | obp | slg | woba | br | woba vs L | woba vs R |
| Gardner | 100 | .262 | .354 | .371 | .328 | 12 | .308 | .335 |
| Jones | 100 | .224 | .327 | .431 | .332 | 12 | .348 | .327 |
| Ibanez | 100 | .269 | .336 | .474 | .350 | 14 | .324 | .359 |
BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
This includes stolen bases, but not other base running. The impact of that over 25-30 games is probably on the order of about 1-2 runs.
Defense is the real issue here. Here are how the three players’ average defensive projections compare.
| player | pos | Inn | DRS | UZR | TZ | ZR | avg rs | rs/9 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 882 | 13 | 19 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 0.16 |
| Andruw Jones | LF | 161 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 |
| Raul Ibanez | LF | 1221 | -8 | -9 | -6 | -2 | -6 | -0.04 |
DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating
My eyes tell me Andruw Jones is not an average LF, but my eyes are probably comparing him to Brett Gardner. My eyes do tell me Ibanez is a horrific defender. You can use the rs/9 times number of games you think Gardner will miss to get a rough idea of the defensive impact. Over 20 games, Gardner would project to save about 3 runs above an average defender. Jones would project to be about 0.7 runs above an average defender and Ibanez would be about a run worse. So you’re probably looking at a defensive hit in the area of three runs.
So figure something like 0 runs difference on offense minus 1-2 runs on the bases - 3 runs on defense = -4 to -5 runs. You can fiddle around with platooning and defensive substituting and I haven’t included Nun-E in here since I have no idea how to project him defensively but it shouldn’t change the overall bottom line all that much.
Losing Gardner is not great news, but it’s not catastrophic, provided he can return within a month. With wrist injuries that’s never a sure thing though.
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
Yankees.com: Yanks can’t catch Twins after Kuroda stumbles
t was a discouraging encore performance at home for Kuroda, who threw eight shutout innings against the Angels last Friday. He was responsible for 10 of Minnesota’s 12 hits, and all six of the Twins’ runs.
Twins slugger Justin Morneau tagged Kuroda for two homers, the second one knocking New York’s starter out of the game. Minnesota has won two of three games in the set after entering the series with a 5-28 record in the Bronx since 2002.
This series is now officially a disappointment, and a Phil Hughes start away from being a disaster.
Yankees.com: Cano’s recent skid minor in Girardi’s eyes
Cano opened the season with at least one hit in four of his first five games, batting .304 through that stretch. But entering Tuesday’s game against the Twins, he had just three hits in the last five games. He had a good day on Sunday against the Angels (2-for-3 with three runs).
Though Cano has just one RBI this season (Saturday, against the Angels), Girardi has been pleased with the second baseman’s approach at the plate. Cano has six walks this year and an on-base percentage of .340.
This article is from yesterday and his OBP is down to .327, but other than that I think I agree that I’m not too worried about Cano. He’s walked in 11.5% of his PA this year and struck out in 5.1% compared to his career rates of 5.2% and 11.4%. He’s hitting more line drives and grounders this year, which would generally translate to more hits and fewer HRs but hasn’t to this point.
Sample size dictates that none of these numbers mean that much. We shouldn’t really read too much into an increase walk rate or a change in batted ball profile or anything else when you’re not even talking about two weeks worth of games. Until we have more data, we can probably just look at the fact that Cano’s got a BABIP of .256 compared to his career average of .320. Even in his subpar 2008 his BABIP was .283. Give him a .320 BABIP with his 2012 BIP and he’d have a line of .304/.385/.435.
So he should be fine.
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Yankees.com: Yanks to Twins: CC you later!
It was a night of early exits in the Bronx: Denard Span and Ron Gardenhire were ejected and Francisco Liriano lasted 2 1/3 frames. CC Sabathia, meanwhile, settled in for his first win, with big hits from Chris Stewart and Andruw Jones.
My cable box thought I’d enjoy watching it initialize itself for a few hours so I didn’t get to see much of the game after the third. From what I saw, CC looked shaky, but it appears that he did much better as the game wore on. I’m still not sure he showed enough to think he’s about to go on a dominant run, but I’ll take the incremental improvement, even if it’s against one of the lesser offensive teams in the league.
Brett Gardner didn’t make the recap highlights, but he went 2 for 2 with 2 walks, all against LHP I believe, making his case that he should not be a platoon player. I agree with said case. You do have to rest him and Granderson some, and it’s probably smart to do that vs. LHP, but they should both still probably play a fair amount against them.
Yankees.com: Yankees’ hot start fizzles in loss to Twins
NEW YORK—Joe Girardi offered up a prophecy Monday afternoon that he’d rather have not seen come true.
Just hours before his club took the field for the series opener against the visiting Twins—who have had remarkably little success at Yankee Stadium over the last 10 years—Girardi noted how formidable the heart of Minnesota’s order is again, with the resurgent health of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, and the addition of outfielder Josh Willingham.
As formidable as the heart of the Yankees’ order?
Losing to the Twins at home is not something that can be spun. They stink, and now the Yankees have to try and make up for it. Taking the next three games would be a start to that.
Monday, April 16, 2012
Close the Curtain Slowly: Derek, Bernie, and the dream
Angry at Derek Jeter? Well, those sacrifice bunts in the first inning could incite even a Buddhist monk. But aside from that unfortunate habit, I find it nearly impossible to disdain Jeter, even as he was routinely overpowered by just about any pitcher throwing with a right hand during the first half of last season.
I do my best to accept the limitations of baseball players. Criticizing athletes from a couch is an American pastime, and even the most rational sports followers are occasionally swept within the winds of irrational emotion. My past experiences playing competitive baseball, against high school caliber competition, taught me two personal lessons. That baseball was incredibly difficult, and creatively cruel. The players earning big money professionally had to overcome career combusting elements through all levels of their journey, from mastering the delicate skill of consistency, to maintaining health while playing a physically demanding game.
Despite being slightly aware of baseball’s difficulty, I still fly off the handle with ease. When a runner is on third with less than two out, I become easily incensed at ‘unproductive outs.’ Of course, the gods of baseball (impassive orbs in outer space, see the syllabus) see all outs as more or less the same. Depending on game situation, fans have a tendency to believe players can magically guide ‘productive outs’ at will. So I’ll be especially hard on Robinson Cano, if he flails at a pitch out of the strike zone with the bases loaded, or Nick Swisher, if the swagger hound strikes out when a ground ball could have sufficed. Jeter is the exception. He consistently escapes my ire. Because I am not in a rush to judge his performance, I feel more of a distinct connection with him. Inside of me there’s still the teenage Jeter fan boy who was insulted during the 2001 playoffs when Fox compared him with Miguel Tejada. Also inside is the more mature man who doesn’t feel the need to fling household objects when that same player repeatedly fails in ‘clutch situations.’
Except for his ludicrous philosophies on bunting (Derek defends his position in an Amazon E-Book called ‘Hall of Famers can bunt, too.’ Currently on sale for seventy-four cents) Jeter’s mistakes barely register with me emotionally. It’s a strange detachment, considering my high expectations for the other Yankees.
I was similarly unmoved by Bernie Williams’ impression of a statue for the last couple of years of his career. (And Mariano Rivera? Forget it. He could be throwing low fifties gas at the age of eighty and I would still want him on the mound for the last three outs.)
Williams’ decline as a player began almost immediately after injuring his knee during the 2003 season. From that point forward, he became, almost immediately, a liability, except as a right-handed hitter of fastballs. Bernie could probably still crush one of those, especially from the recently retired Arthur Rhodes. Bernie’s struggles in 2003 were mitigated by the continued emergence of Alfonso Soriano, the slugging of Jason Giambi, and a characteristically strong effort from Jeter. Bernie also slaughtered the baseball during the 2003 World Series, especially at cavernous Pro Player Stadium, where an exciting bid to tie game five against Braden Looper died on the warning track. The lasting image of his season was not one of failure, which obscured the cold reality of his decline.
By 2004, Bernie had become a part-time centerfielder, and truthfully, should have probably been benched in favor of Kenny Lofton. Alex Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield had arrived, and Williams slipped into the shadows, contributing offensively in 2004 before totally free-falling in ’05, when, at the outset, the Yankees inexplicably expected him to once again assume full-time defensive responsibilities. Bernie was a role player forced to step up due to injuries by 2006, his final season. Though his disintegration had been traumatic for hardcore fans, it was hardly front-page news, not compared to whether Jeter and A-Rod were still B.F.F. The graceful Bernie Williams had gone from a switch-hitting, World Series winning,.900 .OPS compiling, thank God we resigned him, guitar-playing monster to a shadow. Sea changes in baseball are often that violent. The pastoral pace of the game belies sudden shifts in fortune. It’s a gentle riptide. When Bernie Williams was pulled under, the type of hysteria capable of temporarily distorting our perceptions was mostly avoided, aside from the brief drama of whether he would accept a minor league invitation to camp in 2007. I was sure a similar situation involving Jeter would play out differently.
Before the predictably difficult negotiating sessions for a new contract, featuring twists and turns splashed on the backs of papers from SoHo (not Luis) to Jersey, there was Derek Jeter’s 2010 season, which was the worst of his career. His .OPS was .710, a career low by over sixty points. His batting average plunged to .270, and on base to .340. Recent improvements to his defensive metrics proved unsustainable. The season paled in comparison even to a disappointing 2008, which had been partially affected by a lingering hand injury. There was never a doubt that Jeter would resign with the Yankees, but debate raged among fans and analysts about the potential length of his new contract. He was eventually inked through 2014.
Jeter’s 2009 season had been triumphant, a flashback to prime form. His on-base percentage had never been higher, except in 1999 and 2000. The Yankees won the World Series. In 2010,Jeter crashed after a fast start. By August, he was getting jammed on pitches he used to easily pull with authority, and grounding out weakly on outside fastballs that had been previously been shot down the line in right for extra bases. The Yankees, as a club, ran into problems in the defining months of 2010. Phil Hughes flamed out after a promising beginning to his season. Andy Pettitte pitched sparingly after injuring his groin. A.J. Burnett certified his status as an enigma, and Javier Vazquez earned his status as a two-time exile. The Yankees appeared vulnerable as the playoffs began, but seemed to regain their footing while drubbing the Twins in round one, proving once and for all the fallacy of due theory. They were dominated by Texas in the ALCS, however, despite winning two games. The team had been fun to watch, but appeared worn out by the curtain’s close. They resembled Jeter.
The immediate future was mysterious. The Yankees’ had an obvious need for starting pitching depth, but Andy Pettitte retired, and Cliff Lee returned to the Phillies during the offseason. The Yankees would lean heavily on the offense in 2011, and, by natural extension, Jeter. The 2009 Yankees were a superb lineup, not even counting the shortstop with an .871 .OPS. Throw that number in the mix, and the output becomes terrifying. The 2011 Yankees didn’t necessarily need a Jeter operating on that elevated level, but an approximate was certainly welcome. With number two starter Phil Hughes struggling in April, the relatively unknown Ivan Nova being relied upon, and Freddy Garcia throwing moonshine balls, the need for a special offense in 2011, and by proxy, an effective Jeter, appeared dire.
Three thousand hits. The chase was afoot. And Derek would need his legs, considering the parade of choppers he beat into infields across America through the early months of 2011.
I would sit patiently on my couch, as Jeter searched for his swing, repeatedly failing to pick up runners in scoring position, striking out against hard throwing relievers, getting the bat knocked out of his hands by sinker slider fourth starter types. By June, the contract extension was inching closer to disaster territory. Jeter would probably be dropped in the batting order. The Yankees were staying in contention, despite his struggles. Granderson and Cano were carrying the torch. Freddy Garcia was getting outs, somehow. The Yankees were in the race. Maybe Jeter’s fall wouldn’t be the contrived controversy I anticipated. In a small, bizarre, and very real way, this bummed me out.
Jeter went on the disabled list. The Yankees played better without him. It was surreal to see. Derek Jeter, the guy you didn’t even bother pretending to be while playing stickball with your friends growing up, because it was just too easy, too easy like winning four World Championships and the Series MVP against the Mets, too easy, too perfect, too beyond us. In 2011, the stickball games were over, and a dude named Eduardo Nunez was outplaying our former hero. Had the riptide claimed another great player?
Jeter did record hit number three thousand, after returning from the disabled list. It was a home run against David Price. He had five hits that afternoon, including the game winner. The moment felt nostalgic while it was in progress. I emotionally steeled myself for all the ground ball outs waiting to be born.
But Jeter kept hitting.
Jeter hit like his old self. He hit like rust was some kind of unrealistic fantasy, instead of his new contract. He hit enough to reach the aesthetically pleasing plateau of .297 by the end of the season. Batting average is a flawed stat. But .297 and Derek Jeter went along together just fine. Much better than .270. As Jeter regained his game, the Yankees made their move on Boston. The concern about Adrian Gonzalez and the Sox owning the A.L. East for multiple seasons? By the end of the year, that seemed more unrealistic than Eduardo Nunez becoming the starting shortstop for the New York Yankees.
Yes, Yankees fans could be arrogant, totally spoiled, for a while longer. It had all been so unrealistic. All that talent coming together. The evolutionary, offense first shortstop. The smooth, switch-hitting centerfielder. The best closer ever. A-Rod switching to third? Really? Winning and winning and winning. All a dream, right? And I guess I can’t get mad at Jeter because it would be an acknowledgement that the dream will end, like all dreams do. That my favorite players will age. And fail. And lose. And the Yankees will be just another team.
I was at the game last night, against the Angels. Jeter homered. Off a lefty. A laser shot into the first or second row of the right field seats. My brother and I were cheering, and while watching the replay, agreed that Jeter hadn’t seemed this smooth mechanically since 2009. As of this morning, he’s hitting .361 with a .923 .OPS. You don’t keep track of stats in April, unless you like them.
I guess being a fan, watching a game, getting that engaged in such an abstract notion like competitive sports, is kind of like dreaming. And Derek Jeter is the type of player who makes the dream last a little longer. Bernie was, too. Our dreams usually don’t have endings. We just wake up. Baseball is a hard game. Not yet, says Jeter, with every hit.
Not yet.
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Yankees.com: Jeter’s homer helps Yankees outslug Angels
NEW YORK—Derek Jeter cracked a three-run homer and Ivan Nova turned in six effective innings for the victory as the Yankees defeated the Angels, 11-5, on Sunday at Yankee Stadium.
Mark Teixeira had two hits, including a run-scoring double, as part of a four-run third inning that sent Angels starter Jerome Williams to an early exit.
Jeter’s second blast of the year was a line drive into the right-field seats off Hisanori Takahashi in the fourth inning, opening up a seven-run lead and providing Nova with a large cushion to cruise toward his second victory of the year.
The Angels made it a three-run game by the seventh, when Albert Pujols knocked in a run with a single facing an ineffective Rafael Soriano, but David Robertson bailed the Yankees out of a bases-loaded jam to escape the inning.
It’s nice when the Yankee offense graces us with their presence, isn’t it? Derek Jeter can’t carry this team alone all season.
Nova’s final line doesn’t look all that great, but I thought he pitched pretty well over most of the game. He continued to show the separation in his walks and strikeouts that are an indication that he’s not pitching over his head with 2 BB and 8 K, but he gave up 2 HRs and 4 runs so it was a mixed outing.
The Yankees have won 5 of 6 after starting the year 0 for 3 against the juggernaut Rays. The schadenfreude-lover in me also is happy that the Angels weren’t able to leave this series feeling they’ve “turned their season around” and that Albert Pujols didn’t really break out. I still think they’re a good team and will be in contention until the end of the year, but let that start after tonight.
A 5-4 record feels meh, but it’s about where we should have realistically expected them to be at this point. The home series against the Twins starting tomorrow seems like a good opportunity to try and move ahead of those expectations.
NY Baseball Digest: Silva: Is Cano Worth $300 Million?
That brings me to Cano. He has been called “Rod Carew with power,” but he should belong in the conversation with some of the best in the game at his position. Most believe Joe Morgan is the best second baseman in history. Through the age of 29, Morgan had accumulated 103 HRs, 433 RBI and a batting average of .270. He had two All-Star appearances and had won his first Gold Glove during that 1973 season. In comparison, Cano is also a tw0-time All-Star, won a Gold Glove and a superior offensive player with 144 career HRs, 621 RBI and a .307 batting average.
The Yankees have a $15 million dollar option for next season. Cano will be a free agent after 2013, and undoubtedly one of the most desired on the market. Is it crazy to think someone will offer him an Alex Rodriguez-type contract that exceeds exceeds $27 million AAV?
No.
The Morgan comparison is specious at best, and intellectually dishonest at worst. It completely ignores the respective contexts of the two (Morgan put up a 129 OPS+ and 47.0 Baseball Reference WAR through age 29, compared to Cano’s 119 and 28.5).
Ian Kinsler just signed for five years and $75M. He’s averaged about 4.7 WAR over the last three years compared to Cano’s 5.0. Even if you think Cano’s a win better than Kinsler, a more reasonable contract might pay him by about $5M more per season. Maybe you go to six or seven years for Cano, which I wouldn’t do, but anyway that means something like 6/$120M or 7/$140M.
$30M a year? No freaking way.
Saturday, April 14, 2012
Yankees.com: Hughes chased early; Yanks can’t recover
NEW YORK—With too many starting pitching options for five spots, each turn through the Yankees’ rotation is essentially another audition. Phil Hughes didn’t provide an encouraging one on Saturday.
The right-hander served up six runs in 3 1/3 inefficient innings, including homers to Chris Iannetta and Howard Kendrick, as the Angels roughed up the Yankees, 7-1, at Yankee Stadium.
I didn’t see any of Hughes’s innings, so I can’t tell you how he looked. In comparing his last start to this one, here are some stats.
| Date | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | BF | P/BF | BB/BF | K/BF |
| 8-Apr | 4.7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 21 | 4.71 | 9.5% | 23.8% |
| 14-Apr | 3.3 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 4.20 | 10.0% | 30.0% |
I guess we can be happy that he was more efficient on a per batter basis. Other than that, it’s tough to see much to be happy about with this outing.
Hughes probably gets at least three more starts before the Yankees have to make a decision about whether he should be bumped for someone. Hopefully he makes the decision harder than it is looking to be right now.
Even if Hughes had pitched much better and held the Angels to say, two runs, it wouldn’t have mattered today. I was bothered by the fact that the Yankees seemingly had no interest in C.J. Wilson this offseason, although I didn’t know about their payroll mandate at the time. Time will tell if they’ll regret that decision, but at least today I’m sure they did.
NY Post: Sherman: A-Rod HRs help, hurt Yankees
That $30 million seduction looked bad then — to blend immortality with a payday — and worse now for two reasons: 1) The Yankees are trying to get under the $189 million luxury-tax threshold beginning in 2014 to gain the financial benefits that are part of the new collective bargaining agreement. Those $6 million bonuses, if triggered, would count toward the payroll in the season they are earned. 2) The 2009 revelation that Rodriguez used steroids at least during his Ranger years devalued A-Rod, the TV Show, for the Yankees/YES while assuring Rodriguez that the accomplishment is as regretted as celebrated.
You got a preview of, at the least, how little joy and fanfare there will be should Rodriguez keep climbing on the homer list by the minimalist reaction yesterday. It was not long ago that becoming the fifth-leading homer hitter ever would have unleashed a standing ovation, wall-to-wall coverage and the further elevating of a reputation. Instead, when A-Rod took Ervin Santana deep to open the third inning, there was, well, not much.
The way I see it, the best way for this to work out is for A-Rod to hit all those bonuses this year and next year so they have no impact on 2014.
Rodriguez can earn the $6 million bonuses for hitting 660 HRs, 715 HRs, 755 HRs, then for tying the HR record (currently 756) and then breaking it. According to the CAIRO career projections I ran for Rodriguez his baseline career total for HRs was 699 and if he hit his 80% forecast it would get to 742.
| 2012_% | PA | AB | H | HR |
| Baseline | 13066 | 11308 | 3328 | 699 |
| 65% | 13560 | 11732 | 3469 | 724 |
| 80% | 13826 | 11962 | 3565 | 742 |
Better than expected health could probably push him closer to that 755-757 range, but I’m not sure expecting a 36-42 year old Rodriguez to start demonstrating better health than the 32-35 version did is particularly realistic.
He now needs 31 HRs over the next two years to get to 661. CAIRO’s baseline had him at 35. If he can do that, then we have to wait another 50 HRs for him to trigger that 715 HR bonus. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that it wouldn’t happen in 2014, and I’d probably bet against it happening in 2015. It may not be going out on the limb to say that it will NEVER happen.
Point being, this is probably pretty low on the Yankees’ list of worries in getting to the $189M payroll Valhalla.
The wording of the last two milestones is interesting. Rodriguez would have to average 21 HRs a year over the rest of his contract (plus yesterday’s) to wind up at 756. If Albert Pujols averages 52 over the same span, he’d end up at 757 HRs. Wouldn’t it be hilarious if Rodriguez tied Barry Bonds in the first game of an Angels series, passed him in the second and then watched Pujols hit three HRs to break his record in the third game? Technically, Rodriguez would have achieved his milestone. But it wouldn’t have been worth anything 24 hours later.
Actually, it wouldn’t be hilarious.
Friday, April 13, 2012
Yankees.com: Superb Kuroda leads Yanks in Bronx opener
NEW YORK—Hiroki Kuroda worked eight-plus stellar innings in his Yankee Stadium debut and Nick Swisher cleared the bases with a three-run double as the Yankees defeated the Angels, 5-0, on Friday in their home opener.
Alex Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson also homered in the victory for New York, as the Bombers won for the 14th time in their last 15 home openers, including three of four at the new ballpark. Rodriguez’s fourth-inning homer was the 630th of his career, tying him with Ken Griffey Jr. for fifth on the all-time list.
I only got to see bits and pieces but I look forward to watching the replay of Kuroda’s performance. Pretty much the home opener you’d draw up on paper if you could. A great starting pitcher performance, Swisher putting the team up 3-0 in the first inning., Rodriguez going 3 for 4 with a SB and showing that perhaps there’s still some life left in him, and most importantly a win.
If we revisit this, the Yankees have now gotten their record back to where it should have been after seven games. According to log5 the Yankees would have been 3.82 - 3.18 at this point, and they’re 4-3. Yay.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Should We Be Worried about CC’s Fastball?
Obviously CC Sabathia’s gotten off to a rough start this year. What I don’t know is if it’s just a blip or something we should start to worry about. Here are Sabathia’s peripheral stats for his first two starts over the last three seasons.
| days | year | ip | bf | h | hr | bb | k | fb% | gb% | ld% |
| 04-06 - 04-11 | 2012 | 12.0 | 56 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 34.3% | 31.4% | 34.3% |
| 03-31 - 04-05 | 2011 | 13.0 | 51 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 38.2% | 29.4% | 32.4% |
| 04-04 - 04-10 | 2010 | 13.0 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 30.6% | 47.2% | 22.2% |
| days | year | p/bf | bb/bf | k/bf | ra | era | fip | xfip | babip | hr/fb |
| 04-06 - 04-11 | 2012 | 3.86 | 8.9% | 26.8% | 6.75 | 6.75 | 4.12 | 3.38 | .412 | 16.7% |
| 03-31 - 04-05 | 2011 | 4.12 | 5.9% | 25.5% | 2.08 | 1.38 | 1.89 | 3.32 | .229 | 0.0% |
| 04-04 - 04-10 | 2010 | 4.39 | 8.2% | 18.4% | 3.46 | 3.46 | 2.74 | 3.95 | .194 | 0.0% |
fb%: percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
gb%: percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
ld%: percentage of batted balls that were line drives
p/bf: pitches per batters faced
bb/bf: walks per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
ra/era: runs allowed per nine, earned runs allowed per nine
fip: fielding-independent pitching
xfip: expected fielding-independent pitching (regresses HR rate to league average)
babip: batting average on balls in play against
hr/fb: homers allowed per fly ball (league average is in the 10-11% range)
xFIP thinks he’ll be fine, but I’m not so sure we should just hand wave away the higher BABIP against and the HR/FB rate. I am not sure if what appears to be lower velocity is an early season thing or a cause for concern, so here are some of his Pitch FX numbers for the first two starts of each of the past three seasons.
| Year | Pitch Type | Avg Velocity | Max Velocity | # | % |
| 2010 | FF (FourSeam Fastball) | 93.5 | 96.0 | 87 | 44.8% |
| SI (Sinker) | 92.9 | 95.0 | 33 | 17.0% | |
| 2011 | FF (FourSeam Fastball) | 93.1 | 96.0 | 92 | 39.0% |
| SI (Sinker) | 92.5 | 95.0 | 50 | 21.2% | |
| 2012 | FF (FourSeam Fastball) | 91.5 | 94.1 | 42 | 19.2% |
| SI (Sinker) | 91.7 | 95.0 | 71 | 32.4% |
# is just the count of the times he threw his four-seamer and his sinker over the first two starts. I’m not sure that what Pitch FX is seeing in 2012 (more sinkers, fewer four-seamers) is a genuine change in his approach or if reduced velocity is causing some classification issues, so here’s what it looks like if we just lump them together.
| Year | Pitch Type | Avg Velocity |
| 2010 | FF+SI | 93.4 |
| 2011 | FF+SI | 92.9 |
| 2012 | FF+SI | 91.6 |
I figured Sabathia picks up some velocity as the season goes on, although according to these velocity charts that’s really only visibly apparent in 2011.
As far as whether this means we should worry about CC, I’d say probably not yet. But if he is still throwing like this in May I may start to.
2012 Yankee Position Player WAR through April 11
I’m just goofing around with my spreadsheets for 2012 and figured I’d post this. I’ve decided that this year I’m going to just use Fangraphs’ data for everything except defense since I don’t like using UZR as the sole determination of a player’s defense. I’ll still keep my own set of numbers as a sanity check in case I start having questions about what Fangraphs says, but I don’t generally have much of an issue with their position player valuations. I’ll still do my own pitching valuation.
| name | team | lg | pos | pa | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | so | gdp | sb | cs | avg | obp | slg | woba | avg_def | war |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | AL | SS | 30 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .370 | .414 | .556 | .403 | -0.2 | 2.1 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | AL | RF | 30 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .208 | .367 | .542 | .392 | -0.5 | 1.6 |
| Eduardo Nunez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .500 | .452 | -0.2 | 0.7 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | AL | LF | 19 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .353 | .389 | .353 | .346 | -0.1 | 0.5 |
| Andruw Jones | Yankees | AL | LF | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .286 | .333 | .714 | .409 | -0.2 | 0.5 |
| Russell Martin | Yankees | AL | C | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .455 | .200 | .338 | -0.3 | 0.3 |
| Eric Chavez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .500 | .440 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Raul Ibanez | Yankees | AL | RF | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .200 | .278 | .467 | .322 | -0.1 | 0.2 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .174 | .345 | .261 | .299 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | AL | 1B | 29 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .310 | .280 | .273 | 0.1 | -0.6 |
| Chris Stewart | Yankees | AL | C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0.0 | -0.7 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | AL | CF | 29 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .310 | .440 | .315 | -1.1 | -0.8 |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | AL | 2B | 30 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .300 | .357 | .290 | -0.7 | -1.0 |
woba: Weighted on-base average
avg_def: Average of DRS, UZR and ZR
war: wins above replacement (using Fangraphs’ offensive WAR plus baserunning with avg_def)
So the Yankees should DFA Mark Teixeira, Chris Stewart, Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano apparently. A bit surprised to see Cano at the bottom of the list, although it appears to be a defense thing.
Sliding 101 with Eduardo Nunez
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Yankee.com: Swisher lifts Yanks out of Baltimore with sweep
BALTIMORE—Nick Swisher connected for a long two-run homer off Kevin Gregg in the 10th inning, lifting the Yankees to a 6-4 win over the Orioles on Wednesday at Camden Yards.
One batter after Mark Teixeira blooped a two-out double just inside the left-field line, Swisher unloaded on a full-count fastball from the Baltimore right-hander and sent it toward Eutaw Street, depositing the ball in the green seats well beyond the outfield wall.
The timely blast made a winner of Rafael Soriano, who pitched 1 1/3 innings after being unavailable in Tuesday’s 12-inning win due to a split fingernail on his right hand. Soriano escaped a bases-loaded jam in the ninth with a key strikeout of Adam Jones.
This game really felt like a loss all game, especially with a bad start by CC Sabathia combined with a short pen, but Boone Logan and Rafael Soriano carried the team until Swisher was able to push across the go-ahead runs and get the lead to Mo.
With this sweep of Baltimore, the Yankees are effectively back to where they should be after getting swept by Tampa Bay and will have a much needed off day tomorrow before the home opener on Friday.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Yankees.com; Ibanez ends drama as Yanks prevail in 12
BALTIMORE—Raul Ibanez provided the Yankees with the big hit that they’d been searching for all night, delivering a go-ahead ground-rule double that powered a 5-4 victory over the Orioles in 12 innings on Tuesday at Camden Yards.
I didn’t think Joe Girardi managed this game all that well, but I’m glad the team won. I didn’t really have a problem with using Boone Logan to start the ninth, particularly since he was on a short leash and got pulled as soon as the first batter reached. My primary beef was the whole sequence in the top of the 11th. After Russell Martin walked to lead off the inning, Girardi pinch-ran for him with Eduardo Nunez. The benefit to this is getting a stolen base threat into the game. Instead, Girardi had left-handed hitting Brett Gardner bunt Nunez to second against a RHP so that Derek Jeter could try to drive him in with the platoon disadvantage. This also meant that the next time Martin’s spot came up, it’d be Chris Stewart in his spot. It turned out to not matter, but I think Girardi would be better off not trying to be so active when an opportunity presents itself.
Of course if one of the Yankees #4 or #5 or #6 hitters could have gotten a hit in the fifty times they came up with a chance to drive in a runner it would have been a non-issue.
On the plus side, David Phelps was nails after a crappy outing by Freddy Garcia, as was Cory Wade. Raul Ibanez’s big hit was obviously cool, and Mariano Rivera closed it out with a perfect 12th inning, lowering his ERA to 7.71. The Yankees have a chance to head home at .500 if they can win tomorrow behind CC Sabathia, and after starting out 0-3 you can’t ask for more than that.
Ivan Nova’s Curveball
| P | Zone% | Chase% | Miss% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 Season | 589 | 41.3% | 26.0% | 26.6% |
| 4/9/2012 | 23 | 60.9% | 55.6% | 45.5% |
Ivan Nova's curveball was really working last night. In two strike counts, he threw the pitch ten times, resulting in no hits and five strikeouts. Of those five strikeouts, four came on curveballs located out of the zone. I'd like to think that he was able to set that up by locating his curve in the strike zone throughout the game. If batters were aware that Nova was willing to throw the pitch in the zone, they were probably more likely to hack at it in two strike counts.
The two hits he gave up on curves were both located inside the strike zone: a double by Wieters in the 4th on a 2-1 pitch with the bases empty, and a single by Adam Jones in the 6th on an 0-1 pitch with the bases empty.
The one backwards K Nova recorded with his curveball last night came in the bottom of the seventh against Robert Andino. That must be why he was so testy after the game....
Monday, April 9, 2012
Yankees.com: Jeter’s four hits set up Yankees’ first win
BALTIMORE—Derek Jeter had four hits and Andruw Jones homered to support Ivan Nova’s effort as the Yankees posted their first victory of the season on Monday, defeating the Orioles, 6-2, at Camden Yards.
Hoping to avoid their first 0-4 start since 1973, the Yankees rode seven solid innings from Nova, who outpitched Baltimore counterpart Brian Matusz and washed away the remnants of an unsuccessful spring.
I generally look at three numbers after every Nova start. Runs, walks and strikeouts. When he allows two runs, walks none and strikes out seven, I’m seeing the evidence I need to see to think that Nova’s improvement over the last season or so is legitimate and sustainable. He hit 96 mph and had great breaking stuff tonight, and threw the best game a Yankee starter has thrown this year.
Saturday, April 7, 2012
Was Intentionally Walking Sean Rodriguez to Pitch to Carlos Pena in the First Inning Defensible?
After sleeping off my annoyance about how the season opener went, I thought I’d look at the statistical implications of Joe Girardi’s tactical decision to walk Sean Rodriguez to get to Carlos Pena with runners on second and third with two outs in the bottom of the first inning yesterday.
The first thing I’ll say is that previous batter/pitcher matchup statistics are generally not predictive, as shown in The Book. So to me, the most relevant statistics are these CAIRO wOBA projections.
Rodriguez: .305 overall wOBA, .322 vs. LHP and .295 vs. RHP
Pena: .340 overall wOBA, .308 vs. LHP and .353 vs. RHP
The next thing I’d look at is run expectancy.
Using the run expectancy numbers from 1993-2010 we see that a team with two outs and runners on 2nd/3rd is expected to score 0.280 runs. With two outs and the bases loaded, they’re expected to score 0.334 runs.
So is it better to face a .322 wOBA hitter (Rodriguez vs. a lefty) with a run expectancy of .280 or a .308 wOBA hitter (Pena vs. LHP) with a run expectancy of 0.334?
Actually, forget wOBA. Let’s use linear weights instead.
Here are the linear weights values for the primary offensive events with runners on second/third and the bases loaded.
| MOB | 1b | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | k | out |
| -xx | 1.17 | 1.46 | 1.62 | 2.07 | 0.23 | 0 | 0 |
| xxx | 1.38 | 2 | 2.4 | 2.86 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
I don’t know why the RE for the HR isn’t equal to base runners plus batter, although I’m guessing Jorge Posada’s base ruining is involved in some way.
And here are the percentages of times Rodriguez and Pena would project to do each of those things vs. LHP.
| split vs. lhp | 1b | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | out |
| Rodriguez | .129 | .059 | .005 | .016 | .116 | .646 |
| Pena | .102 | .030 | .003 | .039 | .117 | .689 |
Multiplying those percentages times the run expectancy for that situation gives us this.
| split vs. lhp | 1b x RE | 2b x RE | 3b x RE | hr x RE | bb x RE | out x RE | RE |
| Rodriguez | .151 | .086 | .009 | .033 | .027 | 0 | .305 |
| Pena | .141 | .060 | .008 | .110 | .117 | 0 | .436 |
Add it all up and you see that the RE for pitching to Rodriguez with runners on second and third is lower than the RE for pitching to Pena with the bases loaded.
These REs for the values of a single, double and triple don’t factor in the outs, which means that we should probably expect a higher percentage of runners to score from second and third with two outs since they’ll be running on contact. That probably closes the gap some. But this shows me that it was likely not the right move to walk Rodriguez to get to Pena.
Friday, April 6, 2012
Yankees.com: Mo proves human, as Rays deny Yankees
ST. PETERSBURG—What could well turn out to be Mariano Rivera’s final Major League season began with an Opening Day blown save, as the Rays toppled the game’s all-time saves leader to post a 7-6 victory on Friday at Tropicana Field.
Joe Girardi should get at least half of the blame for his loss. His asinine decision to intentionally walk Sean Rodriguez in the first inning probably was as big of a reason for this loss as Mo’s blown save.
Looking Ahead To 2012 - Team Wrap Up
Opening Day is here, which means we can forget about projections and start complaining about games that count.
We’ve looked at the projections for most of the key players on the Yankees Opening Day roster, with apologies to Chris Stewart.
Russell Martin
Mark Teixeira
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Eduardo Nun-E-z
The Speedy Brett Gardner
Curtis Granderson
Nick Swisher
Andruw Jones and Jesus Montero Raul Ibanez
CC Sabathia
Hiroki Kuroda
Phil Hughes
Michael Pineda
Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia
$36M and a lost draft pick
David Robertson
Booooone Logan and Clay Rapada
Cory Wade and David Phelps
Mariano F’ing Rivera
So now I try to assemble that into a team projection. I’ll show the depth charts I used for the 2012 MLB Projection Blowout with CAIRO.
| order | player | position | pa | outs | avg/obp/slg | woba | br | def |
| 1 | Derek Jeter | SS | 575 | 392 | .286/.345/.384 | .325 | 69 | -7 |
| 2 | Curtis Granderson | CF | 625 | 421 | .263/.351/.502 | .366 | 98 | 0 |
| 3 | Mark Teixeira | 1B | 675 | 447 | .263/.359/.493 | .368 | 105 | 4 |
| 4 | Robinson Cano | 2B | 675 | 460 | .303/.352/.504 | .368 | 105 | 0 |
| 5 | Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 450 | 300 | .273/.363/.474 | .365 | 68 | 0 |
| 6 | Nick Swisher | RF | 625 | 418 | .259/.356/.455 | .354 | 90 | 4 |
| 7 | Raul Ibanez | DH | 400 | 279 | .266/.329/.458 | .340 | 55 | 0 |
| 8 | Russell Martin | C | 500 | 346 | .253/.347/.383 | .329 | 60 | 0 |
| 9 | Brett Gardner | LF | 600 | 410 | .262/.347/.371 | .324 | 76 | 16 |
| Starters | 5125 | 3473 | .271/.351/.449 | .350 | 726 | 18 | ||
| bench | player | position | pa | outs | avg/obp/slg | woba | br | def |
| Eduardo Nunez | IF | 375 | 271 | .262/.315/.392 | .310 | 44 | -6 | |
| Andruw Jones | OF | 275 | 194 | .221/.318/.413 | .321 | 34 | 0 | |
| Eric Chavez | 3B | 250 | 182 | .240/.296/.356 | .288 | 24 | 0 | |
| Chris Stewart | C | 100 | 72 | .228/.299/.328 | .283 | 9 | 0 | |
| Francisco Cervelli | C | 100 | 70 | .264/.328/.373 | .312 | 11 | 0 | |
| Ramiro Pena | IF | 50 | 37 | .240/.290/.340 | .280 | 5 | 0 | |
| Brandon Laird | 1B/3B | 40 | 29 | .247/.292/.407 | .304 | 4 | 0 | |
| Chris Dickerson | OF | 0 | 0 | .243/.321/.369 | .308 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jack Cust | DH | 0 | 0 | .243/.362/.420 | .349 | 0 | 0 | |
| Russell Branyan | DH | 0 | 0 | .240/.330/.458 | .341 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dewayne Wise | OF | 0 | 0 | .243/.286/.406 | .298 | 0 | 0 | |
| David Adams | 2B | 0 | 0 | .244/.311/.377 | .305 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bench | 1190 | 855 | .244/.309/.381 | .304 | 131 | -6 | ||
| Team | 6315 | 4328 | .266/.343/.436 | .341 | 857 | 12 |
woba: Weighted on-base average
br: Linear weights batting runs
def: Estimated runs saved compared to average using an average of zone rating, DRS, UZR and Totalzone
The biggest area of concern for the position players is probably Alex Rodriguez’s health. A weighted average of his past four years puts him at 459 PA. I’m also not particularly optimistic that Raul Ibanez can hit that projected line, although as half of a platoon it’s more feasible. To a lesser extent the team’s overall health is probably a concern, although in my mind it’s not a huge one. Losing Curtis Granderson or Robinson Cano for an extensive period of time wouldn’t be good since they’re probably the two most valuable position players on the team right now, but you can say that for any team losing one or both of their top two position players.
Regarding Chris Stewart vs. Francisco Cervelli, it’s a clear offensive downgrade. The question is how defense changes things. If we use Cervelli’s 2011 playing time as an estimate for the 2012 backup catchers, you’re looking at something like 137 PA. Let’s round that up to 200 PA in case Russell Martin misses some more time than expected.
200 PA of Cervelli projects to be worth 22 runs. For Stewart, 200 PA projects to be worth about 18 runs. As far as defense, I’m going to ignore pitch framing and blocking and just compare the difference between them in SB/CS. In their careers, that looks like this:
| player | inn | sb | cs | sba | cs% |
| Cervelli | 1295 | 93 | 23 | 116 | 19.8% |
| Stewart | 590 | 44 | 28 | 72 | 38.9% |
Runners may not run as frequently against Stewart if teams have more respect for his arm than they do for Cervelli’s, although runners have attempted 0.12 steals per inning vs. Stewart compared to 0.09 steals per innings vs. Cervelli in their respective careers. I’ll split the difference, which means 42 stolen base attempts over 400 innings. Using the linear weights values for SB/CS gives us this.
| player | inn | sb | cs | sba | cs% | rv |
| Cervelli | 400 | 34 | 8 | 42 | 19.8% | 4 |
| Stewart | 400 | 26 | 16 | 42 | 38.9% | -1 |
rv: linear weights run value of SB/CS.
A positive run value means more runs for the team stealing bases, so the difference between Stewart and Cervelli there effectively nullifies Cervelli’s offensive edge. Whether other factors of catcher defense change things beyond that, I have no idea.
Back to the rest of the team, the Yankees actually project to score more runs than any other team in baseball according to the aggregate projections I ran, although CAIRO sees them about nine runs behind Boston. They may be able to pick up a few more runs if they swap out Ibanez for Russell Branyan and/or Jack Cust at some point.
Most of the defense projects as average, aside from Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher, Brett Gardner and Nun-E. Overall they project about 12 runs better than average.
Of course, 90% of the game is pitching, so how’s that look?
| Role | Player | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP |
| SP1 | CC Sabathia | 220 | 220 | 91 | 82 | 19 | 64 | 203 | 3.57 | 3.24 | 3.23 |
| SP2 | Hiroki Kuroda | 190 | 190 | 91 | 80 | 21 | 44 | 126 | 4.57 | 4.01 | 3.92 |
| SP3 | Michael Pineda | 150 | 150 | 82 | 76 | 21 | 53 | 157 | 4.37 | 4.06 | 3.79 |
| SP4 | Ivan Nova | 150 | 150 | 78 | 72 | 16 | 57 | 89 | 4.93 | 4.50 | 4.52 |
| SP5 | Phil Hughes | 150 | 150 | 75 | 73 | 19 | 50 | 114 | 4.63 | 4.49 | 4.26 |
| SP6 | Andy Pettitte | 110 | 110 | 51 | 47 | 11 | 35 | 76 | 4.33 | 4.01 | 4.00 |
| SP7 | Freddy Garcia | 40 | 40 | 18 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 4.55 | 4.28 | 4.28 |
| SP8 | Manny Banuelos | 20 | 20 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 6.20 | 5.72 | 5.43 |
| SP9 | Dellin Betances | 20 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 6.51 | 6.02 | 5.75 |
| SP10 | Adam Warren | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.41 | 5.00 | 4.72 |
| Starters | Total | 1050 | 1050 | 510 | 469 | 117 | 335 | 813 | 4.38 | 4.02 | 3.98 |
| Role | Player | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP |
| CL | Mariano Rivera | 65 | 65 | 25 | 23 | 5 | 16 | 77 | 2.63 | 2.46 | 2.71 |
| SU | David Robertson | 70 | 70 | 28 | 26 | 5 | 43 | 109 | 2.96 | 2.77 | 2.84 |
| SU | Rafael Soriano | 60 | 60 | 31 | 29 | 8 | 26 | 69 | 3.82 | 3.60 | 3.64 |
| MR | Boone Logan | 50 | 50 | 23 | 20 | 5 | 19 | 46 | 4.29 | 3.76 | 3.71 |
| MR | Cory Wade | 40 | 40 | 20 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 28 | 4.44 | 4.08 | 4.31 |
| MR | Clay Rapada | 50 | 50 | 26 | 24 | 5 | 23 | 39 | 4.63 | 4.35 | 4.25 |
| LR | David Phelps | 50 | 50 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 14 | 24 | 5.58 | 5.16 | 4.88 |
| LR | D.J. Mitchell | 23 | 23 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 5.99 | 5.54 | 5.26 |
| Relievers | Total | 408 | 408 | 191 | 177 | 43 | 161 | 403 | 4.21 | 3.90 | 3.75 |
| Team | Total | 1458 | 1458 | 701 | 646 | 160 | 496 | 1216 | 4.33 | 3.99 | 3.91 |
Assigning innings to the staff was a bit trickier this year. The Yankees have a whole bunch of guys who could pitch in the middle/back of the rotation and injuries/circumstances may have a greater say in that than merit. There’s not a ton of difference in the projections of starters 2-7, although it’s probably fair to wonder how accurate projecting Andy Pettitte will be after a year off. But really, you can juggle the innings around between Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes and Freddy Garcia and probably not see a big difference. CC Sabathia is really the one starter the Yankees can’t afford to lose for any appreciable amount of time.
As far as the pen, it looked better before Joba Chamberlain got hurt. There’s still probably not an end-game you’d take over Mariano Rivera/David Robertson, and for all the crap I spew about the Soriano signing he should be solid, but an injury to either Mo or Robertson suddenly makes it look a bit thin. David Aardsma may be able to pitch at some point, but that’s uncertain.
So, adding this up, this is what CAIRO says.
| RS | 848 |
| Def | 12 |
| RA | 701 |
| wpct | .598 |
| p162 | 97 |
848 runs scored and 701 runs allowed plus 12 runs saved compared to average puts the Yankees at a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .598, which is equivalent to a 97 win team. CAIRO projected them at 96 in the projection blowout, which is probably a strength of schedule thing.
The other projections I ran say:
Marcel: 92
Oliver: 94
PECOTA: 95
ZiPS: 95
Average: 94
Clay Davenport has them at 93, the official version of Oliver has them at 96 and the official version of PECOTA has them at 94 wins.
I am fairly certain about one thing in baseball this year. The best team in the American League will be the best team in baseball. I’m not quite as certain that the Yankees are that team. They project to be, but Texas has represented the AL in the last two World Series (shamefully, but still…) and if Yu Darvish is a front-line MLB starting pitcher(I think he is), it’s not a stretch to see them as the best team in the league. If the Angels stop dicking around with Vernon Wells and put Mike Trout in their outfield they also have a chance to be the best team in the league, plus they’ll sweep the Yankees in the regular season even if they’re not. Detroit’s defense looks like a problem to me, and while they should score plenty of runs, I have a hard time seeing them as being better than all three of the Rangers, Angels, and Yankees. Of course, we also have the two chief rivals in the AL East to worry about. It wouldn’t take much in the way of good fortune for Boston/Tampa Bay or bad fortune for the Yankees to drop the Yanks into third place.
Still, it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Yankees fail to qualify for the postseason. I suppose losing any of CC Sabathia, Robinson Cano or Curtis Granderson for an extended period of time would be one such scenario.
According to the average team projections I ran their probability of winning at least the second wild card at 82.5%, which is the highest in baseball and 7% ahead of Texas who rank second. CAIRO likes the Yankees even more than that at 83.5%, but that ranks second to Texas’s 84.1%. On average, it took 92 wins to win the first AL wild card and 89 wins to get the second one, but these are the Yankees. Division or bust! Wild cards are for losers!
Since rilkefan asked about how these projections have fared in the past, I did a quick little chart. This compares the average of however many projections I ran that year to what the Yankees actually did.
| Year | Projected | Actual | Difference |
| 2005 | 94 | 95 | 1 |
| 2006 | 90 | 97 | 7 |
| 2007 | 95 | 94 | -1 |
| 2008 | 95 | 89 | -6 |
| 2009 | 96 | 103 | 7 |
| 2010 | 96 | 95 | -1 |
| 2011 | 92 | 97 | 5 |
| average | 94 | 95.7 | 1.7 |
| rms | 4.8 |
So the Yankees have been a bit less than two wins better than projected on average since I began running these in 2005. The methodology has changed, I think for the better, but it’s still limited. But I’m pretty comfortable the Yankees will be one of the best teams in baseball. That’s really all you can ask for as a fan when the season starts, right?
Yay Opening Day!
Thursday, April 5, 2012
Looking Ahead to 2012 - Mariano Rivera
On September 19, 2011, Mariano Rivera recorded the 602nd save of his career, passing Trevor Hoffman to become the all-time MLB leader in saves. Saves are a somewhat flawed stat, but what’s not flawed is Rivera’s performance. He’s a first-ballot Hall of Famer who might be the best reliever ever, although he has surely benefitted from having the workload of a modern closer.
I forget who asked me about whether there were any players that constantly exceeded their projections. I think it was Ugly Johnny D. There’s only one I can think of for sure.
| First | Last | Year | age | mIP | mERA | aIP | aERA |
| Mariano | Rivera | 1995 | 26 | 40 | 4.50 | 67 | 5.51 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 1996 | 27 | 77 | 4.91 | 108 | 2.09 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 1997 | 28 | 88.7 | 3.65 | 71.7 | 1.88 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 1998 | 29 | 72.7 | 3.10 | 61.3 | 1.91 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 1999 | 30 | 63 | 2.86 | 69 | 1.83 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2000 | 31 | 65.3 | 3.03 | 75.7 | 2.85 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2001 | 32 | 69.7 | 3.36 | 80.7 | 2.34 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2002 | 33 | 73.3 | 3.19 | 46 | 2.74 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2003 | 34 | 56 | 3.38 | 70.7 | 1.66 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2004 | 35 | 65 | 3.05 | 78.7 | 1.94 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2005 | 36 | 71.3 | 3.03 | 78.3 | 1.38 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2006 | 37 | 72 | 2.63 | 75 | 1.80 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2007 | 38 | 70.3 | 2.82 | 71.3 | 3.15 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2008 | 39 | 68 | 3.31 | 70.7 | 1.40 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2009 | 40 | 67.7 | 3.06 | 66.3 | 1.76 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2010 | 41 | 65 | 3.18 | 60 | 1.80 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2011 | 42 | 61.7 | 2.77 | 61.3 | 1.91 |
| Total | 1147 | 3.27 | 1211 | 2.21 |
mIP: Marcel projected innings pitched.
mERA: Marcel projected ERA.
aIP: Actual innings pitched
aERA: Actual ERA
Marcel regresses more heavily than any other projection system, but it’s the only one I have going all the way back to 1995 so I’m using that. Rivera’s pitched 65 innings more than projected and allowed 119 fewer earned runs. This is more remarkable because every year where he beats his projection should make his projection better. His best projected ERA was 2.63 in 2006. He’s had an ERA better than 2.63 in 13 of his 16 seasons as a reliever.
So it’s safe to say he’s exceeded his projections.
2011
Despite putting up a 1.80 ERA in 2010, Mo seemed to be a bit less dominant. It continued what appeared to be a downward trend.
| Year | IP | BF | ERA | FIP | BABIP | BB/PA | K/PA |
| 2008 | 70.7 | 259 | 1.40 | 2.10 | .218 | 2.3% | 29.7% |
| 2009 | 66.3 | 257 | 1.76 | 2.99 | .248 | 4.7% | 28.0% |
| 2010 | 60.0 | 230 | 1.80 | 2.93 | .222 | 4.8% | 19.6% |
| 2011 | 61.3 | 233 | 1.91 | 2.37 | .275 | 3.4% | 25.8% |
I try to make the point as often as I can that things that appear to be trends in baseball are not predictive. Rivera’s walk rate appeared to be trending up while his K rate was trending down, but it didn’t really tell us anything about 2011. FIP says Rivera was better in 2011 than he was in 2009 and 2010, but FIP ignores his BABIP supressing ability. It’s probably also worth mentioning that Rivera actually threw a smidgen harder last year than he had over the prior two season.
Even though projections are always wrong about Mo, I’ll post them anyway.
2012 Projections
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 65 | 50 | 19 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 59 | 2.63 | 2.46 | 2.71 | 21 | 2.1 |
| davenport | 60 | 51 | 19 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 51 | 2.85 | 2.85 | 3.03 | 18 | 1.8 |
| marcel | 62 | 53 | 21 | 19 | 5 | 15 | 52 | 3.06 | 2.77 | 3.24 | 15 | 1.5 |
| oliver | 59 | 52 | 21 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 48 | 3.19 | 2.89 | 2.96 | 17 | 1.7 |
| pecota | 67 | 56 | 20 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 66 | 2.71 | 2.45 | 2.88 | 18 | 1.8 |
| steamer | 58 | 54 | 24 | 22 | 5 | 15 | 53 | 3.74 | 3.39 | 3.24 | 9 | 0.9 |
| zips | 49 | 44 | 18 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 43 | 3.31 | 3.12 | 3.11 | 10 | 1.0 |
| average | 60 | 52 | 20 | 19 | 5 | 12 | 53 | 3.07 | 2.85 | 3.02 | 15 | 1.5 |
| 2011 | 61 | 47 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 60 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 2.17 | 22 | 2.2 |
| LgAvg | 61 | 57 | 28 | 26 | 6 | 25 | 52 | 4.15 | 3.82 | 3.82 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average as frames of reference. League average is based on role (starters vs. relievers), and is not adjusted for park so unlike with hitters mentally adjust that down a bit.
Yay, CAIRO Yankee bias! Just like every year, the projections expect Mo to take a step back, but even so he still projects as well as just about any reliever in baseball. Here is Rivera’s rank in projected ERA for each system.
cairo: 3
davenport: 2
marcel: 2
oliver: 2
pecota: 8
zips: 35
Boo ZiPS!
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 78 | 52 | 17 | 16 | 3 | 11 | 80 | 2.02 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 30 | 3.0 |
| 65% | 71 | 51 | 18 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 69 | 2.33 | 2.16 | 2.28 | 25 | 2.5 |
| Baseline | 65 | 50 | 19 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 59 | 2.63 | 2.46 | 2.67 | 21 | 2.1 |
| 35% | 52 | 43 | 17 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 44 | 2.93 | 2.75 | 3.04 | 15 | 1.5 |
| 20% | 45 | 40 | 16 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 36 | 3.23 | 3.04 | 3.41 | 11 | 1.1 |
The 65% forecast looks like a typical Rivera year. I don’t think he can pitch that many innings at that rate of performance though.
It’s no secret that Mariano Rivera is my favorite player ever. I don’t know if 2012 will be his last season, although if I had to handicap it I’d say it’s maybe 3-1 that it will be. Because of that, I’m going to just try and enjoy every appearance, every entrance, every warm-up pitch, every broken bat, every nasty cutter that a lefty hitter will flail at aimlessly, every four-seamer inside that freezes a righty and every win that Rivera closes out. Hopefully the final game of the MLB 2012 postseason will be one of those games. It’d be the most appropriate way for Mo to ride off into the sunset, wouldn’t it?
Looking Ahead to 2012 - Cory Wade and David Phelps
As of right now, the last two spots in the Yankee bullpen will be manned by Cory Wade and David Phelps. Wade was great in 2011 but has had a rough spring. I didn’t get to see a ton of spring training games, but it seemed like Wade pitched in everyone I saw and gave up runs. He ended the spring with a 7.11 ERA and allowed 20 hits in 12.2 innings, walking three and striking out 9. I don’t know if that’s a cause for concern, but we’ll surely find out soon enough. Phelps would probably be better off starting in AAA than sitting in the MLB bullpen, but he’s probably just holding a roster spot until Andy Pettitte or Michael Pineda return.
Wade began 2011 in the Rays organization, but he exercised a mid-June opt-out to sign with the Yankees. Wade had a nice debut season in 2008 but got injured in 2009 and spent 2010 trying to recover in the Dodgers’ minor league system. Wade gave the Yankees 39.2 great innings, putting up a 2.04 ERA. He’s got a career ERA of 2.86 in 138.2 MLB innings.
Phelps was drafted by the Yankees in the 14th round of the 2008 MLB draft out of Notre Dame. Here are his minor league stats.
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | HBP | BF | BB/BF | K/BF |
| 2008 | 21 | Staten Island | NYPL | A- | 8 | 2 | 2.72 | 15 | 15 | 72.7 | 67 | 28 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 52 | 1 | 294 | 6.5% | 17.7% |
| 2009 | 22 | Charleston | SALL | A | 10 | 3 | 2.80 | 19 | 19 | 112.7 | 117 | 48 | 35 | 9 | 25 | 90 | 4 | 465 | 6.2% | 19.4% |
| 2009 | 22 | Tampa | FLOR | A+ | 3 | 1 | 1.17 | 7 | 7 | 38.3 | 34 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 151 | 4.0% | 21.2% |
| 2010 | 23 | Trenton | EL | AA | 6 | 0 | 2.04 | 14 | 14 | 88.3 | 63 | 21 | 20 | 2 | 23 | 84 | 2 | 342 | 7.3% | 24.6% |
| 2010 | 23 | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre | IL | AAA | 4 | 2 | 3.07 | 12 | 11 | 70.3 | 76 | 31 | 24 | 4 | 13 | 57 | 1 | 297 | 4.7% | 19.2% |
| 2011 | 24 | Yankees | GULF | Rk | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 2 | 2 | 7.0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 28 | 3.6% | 17.9% |
| 2011 | 24 | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre | IL | AAA | 6 | 6 | 3.19 | 18 | 18 | 107.3 | 115 | 42 | 38 | 11 | 26 | 90 | 4 | 449 | 6.7% | 20.0% |
| AAA | 10 | 8 | 3.14 | 30 | 29 | 177.7 | 191 | 73 | 62 | 15 | 39 | 147 | 5 | 746 | 5.9% | 19.7% |
He’s worked his way up through the system over the last four seasons and had a 2.61 ERA in 496.2 innings. He’s actually got a lower walk rate in AAA than he had everywhere else, without losing much of the Ks.
He throws his four-seam fastball in the low to mid 90s and according to scouting reports also has a two-seamer and a good curve. He also throws a changeup and slider, but they aren’t considered particularly good right now. He also grades well in control and has been a groundball pitcher. Phelps had a great spring, throwing 17.1 innings with a 2.08 ERA, walking four and striking out 14. He also impressed several scouts according to this article by Joel Sherman:
One Yankees player getting some buzz among scouts is David Phelps, who on Tuesday night against Boston continued his good vibrations by striking out five of the 10 Red Sox he has faced.
Both the Yankees and a few scouts noted to me that Phelps has ticked his fastball up to the 92-93 mph range. And a particularly impressed scout said that has raised his profile because the righty already had good aptitude and competitiveness on the mound.
2012 Projections - Wade
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 43 | 43 | 21 | 20 | 6 | 11 | 30 | 4.44 | 4.08 | 4.31 | 5 | 0.5 |
| davenport | 55 | 54 | 27 | 27 | 7 | 13 | 39 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.01 | 7 | 0.7 |
| marcel | 45 | 42 | 19 | 17 | 5 | 14 | 35 | 3.80 | 3.40 | 3.89 | 7 | 0.7 |
| oliver | 56 | 58 | 28 | 25 | 7 | 14 | 39 | 4.57 | 4.09 | 4.05 | 8 | 0.8 |
| pecota | 38 | 37 | 18 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 28 | 4.31 | 3.86 | 4.16 | 4 | 0.4 |
| steamer | 18 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 4.91 | 4.39 | 4.35 | 1 | 0.1 |
| zips | 57 | 62 | 31 | 29 | 8 | 13 | 37 | 4.92 | 4.61 | 4.37 | 2 | 0.2 |
| average | 45 | 45 | 22 | 20 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 4.48 | 4.12 | 4.16 | 5 | 0.5 |
| 2011 | 39 | 33 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 2.30 | 2.07 | 3.74 | 17 | 1.7 |
| LgAvg | 39 | 36 | 18 | 17 | 4 | 16 | 33 | 4.15 | 3.82 | 3.82 |
2012 Projections - Phelps
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 152 | 185 | 94 | 87 | 23 | 50 | 88 | 5.58 | 5.16 | 4.88 | 0 | 0.0 |
| oliver | 143 | 161 | 78 | 72 | 18 | 41 | 96 | 4.92 | 4.54 | 4.36 | 11 | 1.1 |
| pecota | 37 | 43 | 23 | 21 | 5 | 14 | 23 | 5.59 | 5.16 | 4.85 | 0 | 0.0 |
| zips | 122 | 148 | 78 | 73 | 18 | 39 | 73 | 5.77 | 5.40 | 4.78 | -2 | -0.2 |
| average | 113 | 134 | 68 | 63 | 16 | 36 | 70 | 5.43 | 5 | 4.73 | 2 | 0.2 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.
The projections expect Wade to take a step back, which we should also expect. He still projects as a better than replacement level middle relief arm, which is a useful thing to have.
Phelps’s projections are as a starter, and they’re not pretty. Oliver likes him more than the other systems, which is encouraging.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts - Wade
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 61 | 52 | 24 | 21 | 5 | 11 | 50 | 3.48 | 3.16 | 3.13 | 14 | 1.4 |
| 65% | 52 | 48 | 23 | 21 | 6 | 12 | 40 | 3.96 | 3.62 | 3.72 | 9 | 0.9 |
| Baseline | 43 | 43 | 21 | 20 | 6 | 11 | 30 | 4.44 | 4.08 | 4.30 | 5 | 0.5 |
| 35% | 35 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 4.92 | 4.54 | 4.87 | 2 | 0.2 |
| 20% | 30 | 35 | 18 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 5.40 | 5.00 | 5.43 | 0 | 0.0 |
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts - Phelps
If I make a Phelps a reliever instead of a starter in CAIRO, here are how his percentile forecasts look.
| % | G | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 76 | 4 | 5 | 84 | 82 | 40 | 37 | 9 | 23 | 1 | 63 | 4.27 | 3.92 | 3.71 | 8 | 0.8 |
| 65% | 70 | 4 | 5 | 77 | 80 | 41 | 38 | 10 | 24 | 2 | 54 | 4.76 | 4.39 | 4.24 | 4 | 0.4 |
| Baseline | 64 | 3 | 5 | 70 | 77 | 41 | 38 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 45 | 5.25 | 4.86 | 4.78 | -1 | -0.1 |
| 35% | 51 | 2 | 4 | 56 | 65 | 36 | 33 | 10 | 21 | 3 | 34 | 5.74 | 5.33 | 5.31 | -4 | -0.4 |
| 20% | 45 | 2 | 3 | 49 | 60 | 34 | 32 | 10 | 20 | 3 | 27 | 6.23 | 5.79 | 5.85 | -6 | -0.6 |
Still not great, but translating minor league performance is tricky so it’s certainly possible Phelps is better than he’s projected to be.
I like Cory Wade, and hope his spring training was just a fluke. He doesn’t throw hard, but I like the fact that he’s not a typical fastball/slider reliever. He mixes his fastball, curveball and changeup well with good command. He uses his secondary pitches a lot (curve 26.7% of the time in his career, changeup 18.8% in his career, 26.0% last year). Interestingly enough, even though lefties have hit him slightly better than righties in his career (.236/.274/.368 vs..206/.271/.347) he’s got better peripherals against them.
| Split | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | BB/BF | K/BF | FIP | BABIP |
| vs RHB | 318 | 291 | 60 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 54 | 7.2% | 17.0% | 4.30 | .304 |
| vs LHB | 235 | 220 | 52 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 45 | 4.3% | 19.1% | 3.61 | .387 |
I’ve never really done anything to confirm it, but when I’ve looked at pitcher platoon splits I’ve noticed that BABIP against tends to be a big part of the reason for variation in them. So we shouldn’t necessarily think Wade’s BABIP against lefties is solely due to bad luck and will regress all that much. But I do think the BB and K rates are evidence he can pitch to lefties, which makes him a good option to work in the middle of a game where the starter gets knocked out early.
Back to Phelps, I’d love to see him pitch well in relief, if only because it would make for the fun debate about whether or not he’s a starter or a reliever.
Wade’s and Phelps’s fortunes probably aren’t crucial to the Yankees’ success in 2012, but circumstances could change that. If that happens, I think they’ll be up for it.
One more post to go before the team wrap-up. See if you can guess who it will be.
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Yankees Make a Bunch of Moves, Some of Which Don’t Make Sense
Sometimes no activity is better than bad activity.
Yankees.com: Yanks add catcher Stewart, option Cervelli
TAMPA, Fla.—The Yankees completed a deal on Wednesday to address their organizational catching depth, acquiring veteran Chris Stewart from the Giants in exchange for right-hander George Kontos.
Because Stewart is out of Minor League options, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said that the 30-year-old right-handed hitter will be on the Opening Day roster as the backup catcher, with a stunned Francisco Cervelli being optioned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Kontos was behind a lot pitchers on the Yankees’ depth chart so I can see why he’d be expendable. I just don’t see how adding a backup catcher who’s worse than the backup catcher that they already had makes the team better.
CAIRO has Cervelli projected to hit .264/.332/.373 with a wOBA of .315. It projects Stewart to hit .233/.311/.343 with a wOBA of .295. Over 250 PA Cervelli would project to be worth about 27 runs and Stewart would project to be worth 23. I suppose the defensive difference between the two could make them effectively equivalent, but it still strikes me as a move that accomplishes nothing and cost the team some depth.
MLB Trade Rumors: Yankees Sign Ramon Ortiz
The Yankees signed right-hander Ramon Ortiz, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets. It’s a minor league deal, Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger tweets. The Giants recently released the 39-year-old Praver/Shapiro client.
Whatever. Shouldn’t have any significance.
Lohud: As deadline passes, Yankees roster is finalized
David Phelps named long reliever
I’d be more annoyed about having Phelps rotting in the bullpen if I thought it was a long-term thing, but it shouldn’t be. At some point Andy Pettitte or Michael Pineda should take that roster spot and Phelps can return to starting in AAA.
Clay Rapada named second lefty
It’s official.
Chris Stewart named backup catcher
See above.
Justin Maxwell designated for assignment
Maxwell had a pretty good spring, but I don’t think he had much use on this team.
Bill Hall given his release
I figured Hall was a longshot to make the team, and Eduardo Nunez’s hot hitting cemented that.
Looking Ahead to 2012 - Boone Logan and Clay Rapada
Brian Cashman eschewed signing a lefty reliever to throw off flat ground, and instead took a flier on Clay Rapada and Cesar Cabral. Cabral got hurt when it looked like he had a good chance to make the team, which helps the Yankees keep him in the organization as a Rule 5 pick. It also opened the door for Rapada to join Boone Logan as the lefties in the 2012 Yankee bullpen.
Logan was an extra piece in the trade that sent Javier Vazquez to the Yankees for Melky Cabrera, Arodys Vizcaino and Mike Dunn. The Yankees have gotten 81 mostly good innings out of Logan, with the occasional hiccups. The hiccups make a lot of Yankee fans not appreciate Logan as much as they probably should.
| season | split | ip | bf | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | so |
| 2010&2011 | vs L | 49.7 | 209 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 5 | 64 |
| 2010&2011 | vs R | 32.0 | 145 | 35 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 20 |
| season | split | bb/bf | k/bf | babip | fip | xfip | ld% | gb% | fb% | iffb% |
| 2010&2011 | vs L | 10.5% | 30.6% | .319 | 2.90 | 3.46 | 21.1% | 52.8% | 45.5% | 5.7% |
| 2010&2011 | vs R | 11.0% | 13.8% | .302 | 4.57 | 4.96 | 16.5% | 40.4% | 33.0% | 5.5% |
Logan’s struck out close to one-third of every left-handed hitter he’s faced as a Yankee. He probably walks more hitters than you’d like to see, and his peripherals vs. righties haven’t been good, but he’s been a useful part of the bullpen so far as a Yankee.
Clay Rapada has pitched for four organizations, but for some reason I thought he’d pitched for about 20. He spent the 2011 with the Orioles, splitting time between AAA and MLB. He had a career ERA of 5.13, but era for a lefty specialist is pretty much useless. Rapada does one thing very well, and that’s get left-handed hitters out. In his career, lefties have hit .153/.252/.220 and righties have hit .359/.474/.692 against him. So lefties have hit like him like Raul Ibanez will hit this year, and righties have hit him like Jesus Montero will hit this year.
He’s walked 11.0% and struck out 26.5% of the 136 LHB he’s faced in his time in MLB, compared to walking 17.9% and striking out 8.4% of the 95 RHB he’s faced. Over the last two seasons those numbers are even more pronounced at 8.1%/29.7% and 23.5%/2.9%. He can be a useful tactical option, but he really should absolutely NEVER face a RHB.
2012 Projections - Logan
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 43 | 45 | 21 | 18 | 4 | 17 | 41 | 4.29 | 3.76 | 3.71 | 6 | 0.6 |
| davenport | 55 | 49 | 24 | 24 | 5 | 21 | 48 | 3.93 | 3.93 | 3.70 | 10 | 1.0 |
| marcel | 50 | 48 | 23 | 20 | 5 | 18 | 45 | 4.14 | 3.60 | 3.70 | 6 | 0.6 |
| oliver | 51 | 49 | 26 | 23 | 4 | 19 | 43 | 4.68 | 4.07 | 3.58 | 8 | 0.8 |
| pecota | 54 | 55 | 31 | 27 | 6 | 21 | 49 | 5.09 | 4.43 | 3.92 | 1 | 0.1 |
| steamer | 50 | 46 | 25 | 21 | 5 | 21 | 47 | 4.40 | 3.83 | 3.81 | 4 | 0.4 |
| zips | 48 | 46 | 22 | 21 | 5 | 17 | 48 | 4.10 | 3.91 | 3.75 | 6 | 0.6 |
| average | 50 | 48 | 24 | 22 | 5 | 19 | 46 | 4.38 | 3.93 | 3.74 | 6 | 0.6 |
| 2011 | 41 | 43 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 13 | 46 | 4.37 | 3.50 | 3.27 | 7 | 0.7 |
| LgAvg | 41 | 38 | 19 | 17 | 4 | 17 | 35 | 4.15 | 3.82 | 3.82 |
2012 Projections - Rapada
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 30 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 23 | 4.63 | 4.35 | 4.25 | 2 | 0.2 |
| davenport | 35 | 34 | 18 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 28 | 4.63 | 4.63 | 4.17 | 3 | 0.3 |
| marcel | 34 | 32 | 17 | 16 | 4 | 13 | 28 | 4.50 | 4.24 | 4.12 | 3 | 0.3 |
| oliver | 48 | 46 | 23 | 22 | 4 | 20 | 38 | 4.43 | 4.17 | 3.84 | 7 | 0.7 |
| pecota | 22 | 21 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 4.31 | 4.06 | 3.92 | 2 | 0.2 |
| steamer | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.97 | 4.68 | 4.44 | 0 | 0.0 |
| zips | 43 | 43 | 22 | 21 | 4 | 19 | 35 | 4.60 | 4.40 | 4.18 | 3 | 0.3 |
| average | 30 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 3 | 13 | 24 | 4.58 | 4.36 | 4.13 | 3 | 0.3 |
| 2011 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 6.15 | 6.15 | 4.49 | -2 | -0.2 |
| LgAvg | 16 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 4.15 | 3.82 | 3.82 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.
I’ve included their 2011s and the league average as frames of reference. League average is based on role (starters vs. relievers), and is not adjusted for park so unlike with hitters mentally adjust that down a bit.
You can’t really use a straight RA/ERA/FIP whatever model to value Rapada. Basically, his value will be tied into win expectancy. He’ll be asked to come in and retire Carlos Pena or David Ortiz or someone of that ilk, probably in a crucial situation. That’s also true to a certain extent for Logan, although he can probably pitch to a RHB sandwiched between a couple of lefties so his RA/ERA may be more reflective of his value.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts - Logan
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 60 | 53 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 18 | 67 | 3.34 | 2.88 | 2.47 | 14 | 1.4 |
| 65% | 52 | 50 | 22 | 19 | 4 | 18 | 53 | 3.82 | 3.32 | 3.05 | 10 | 1.0 |
| Baseline | 43 | 45 | 21 | 18 | 4 | 17 | 41 | 4.29 | 3.76 | 3.62 | 6 | 0.6 |
| 35% | 35 | 38 | 18 | 16 | 4 | 15 | 30 | 4.76 | 4.21 | 4.18 | 3 | 0.3 |
| 20% | 30 | 36 | 18 | 16 | 4 | 15 | 24 | 5.23 | 4.65 | 4.73 | 1 | 0.1 |
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts - Rapada
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 36 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 2 | 12 | 34 | 3.44 | 3.20 | 2.87 | 8 | 0.8 |
| 65% | 33 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 28 | 4.03 | 3.78 | 3.57 | 5 | 0.5 |
| Baseline | 30 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 23 | 4.63 | 4.35 | 4.26 | 2 | 0.2 |
| 35% | 24 | 26 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 5.22 | 4.92 | 4.93 | 1 | 0.1 |
| 20% | 21 | 25 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 5.81 | 5.50 | 5.58 | -1 | -0.1 |
I don’t know how useful these are, but I threw them up here anyway. The fewer innings a pitcher will pitch, the larger the range of likely outcomes.
The Yankees have right-handed relievers who can get lefties out very well, so it’s not likely the Yankees will be forced to use either Logan or Rapada late in games. They’ll probably just be asked to come in when a starter’s struggling and a lefty’s up. Their performance in those situations could have a few games of influence on the Yankees’ final W/L record. That may be a good thing, or a bad thing.
Looking Ahead to 2012 - David Robertson
The best part of the Yankees’ 2011 season may have been watching David Robertson. Robertson entered 2011 as the fourth right-hander on the Yankees’ relief depth chart, expected to pitch some middle innings with the hope of getting the ball to the better relievers like Joba Chamberlain and Rafael Soriano. Instead, he outpitched every reliever on the team except may Mariano Rivera, and is probably now the favorite for the thankless job of “heir to Mo.”
2011
Robertson’s always racked up strikeouts. From 2008-2010 he struck out 170 hitters in 135.1 innings. The problem for him is that also racked up walks. He also had a much higher BABIP against than league average from 2008-2010, which is why he came into 2011 with a career ERA of 3.99.
So how did Robertson wind up as the most valuable relief pitcher in baseball last year (at least according to Baseball Reference)?
| dates | bf | ip | h | hr | r | er | bb | so | ra | era | fip | xfip |
| 6/29/2008 - 10/3/2010 | 595 | 135.3 | 124 | 12 | 63 | 60 | 71 | 170 | 4.19 | 3.99 | 3.41 | 3.67 |
| 4/2/2011 - 9/27/2011 | 272 | 66.7 | 40 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 35 | 100 | 1.22 | 1.08 | 1.97 | 2.70 |
| dates | babip | hr/fb | fb% | gb% | ld% | bb/bf | k/bf |
| 6/29/2008 - 10/3/2010 | .338 | 9.0% | 38.8% | 39.1% | 22.2% | 11.9% | 28.6% |
| 4/2/2011 - 9/27/2011 | .293 | 2.3% | 32.1% | 46.3% | 21.6% | 12.9% | 36.8% |
bf: batters faced
fip: Fielding independent pitching
xfip: Expected fip (uses league average hr/fb rate instead of actual hr)
babip: batting average on balls in play
hr/fb: Percentage of fly balls that were homers (league average is about 10-11%)
fb% Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
gb% Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
ld% Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
bb/bf: walks per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
He actually walked a higher percentage of the batters he faced in 2012. He just had a lower BABIP against, got a higher percentage of ground balls and saw a big drop in his HR/FB rate. His K rate went up a bit as well. He picked up about 1 mph on his fastball last year (93.1 mph) compared to his average of 91.8 from 2008-2010. He also added a cutter that he used quite a bit according to Pitch F/X.
We know that things like BABIP against and HR/FB are more volatile and should be regressed more than most other stats when looking forward, so it’s probably a safe bet that Robertson won’t be putting up a 1.08 ERA in 2012.
2012 Projections
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 62 | 50 | 20 | 19 | 4 | 31 | 78 | 2.96 | 2.77 | 2.84 | 17 | 1.7 |
| davenport | 65 | 52 | 29 | 28 | 6 | 33 | 72 | 4.02 | 3.88 | 3.60 | 11 | 1.1 |
| marcel | 65 | 54 | 23 | 21 | 5 | 28 | 74 | 3.20 | 2.92 | 3.11 | 14 | 1.4 |
| oliver | 63 | 50 | 26 | 24 | 4 | 31 | 76 | 3.72 | 3.40 | 2.98 | 14 | 1.4 |
| pecota | 72 | 57 | 27 | 25 | 6 | 35 | 92 | 3.43 | 3.13 | 3.08 | 13 | 1.3 |
| steamer | 60 | 48 | 23 | 21 | 5 | 28 | 73 | 3.40 | 3.11 | 3.24 | 12 | 1.2 |
| zips | 65 | 50 | 24 | 22 | 5 | 34 | 87 | 3.34 | 3.06 | 3.01 | 13 | 1.3 |
| average | 64 | 52 | 25 | 23 | 5 | 31 | 79 | 3.44 | 3.18 | 3.12 | 14 | 1.4 |
| 2011 | 66 | 40 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 35 | 100 | 1.22 | 1.09 | 1.81 | 36 | 3.6 |
| LgAvg | 66 | 61 | 31 | 28 | 7 | 27 | 56 | 4.15 | 3.82 | 3.82 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average as frames of reference. League average is based on role (starters vs. relievers), and is not adjusted for park so unlike with hitters mentally adjust that down a bit.
Robertson’s expected to take a big step back, although even with that he still projects as a solid reliever who could be a closer for all but a handful of teams. CAIRO likes him more than the other systems, but not to the extent that it should given the way CAIRO was designed to make the Yankees look better than they are. Luckily, I can correct for that with these.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 74 | 52 | 19 | 18 | 2 | 31 | 104 | 2.30 | 2.13 | 1.92 | 26 | 2.6 |
| 65% | 68 | 51 | 20 | 18 | 3 | 31 | 91 | 2.63 | 2.45 | 2.38 | 22 | 2.2 |
| Baseline | 62 | 50 | 20 | 19 | 4 | 31 | 78 | 2.96 | 2.77 | 2.84 | 17 | 1.7 |
| 35% | 49 | 43 | 18 | 17 | 4 | 27 | 59 | 3.28 | 3.09 | 3.30 | 12 | 1.2 |
| 20% | 43 | 40 | 17 | 16 | 4 | 26 | 49 | 3.61 | 3.41 | 3.74 | 9 | 0.9 |
While I wouldn’t be surprised to see Robertson hit the 65% or even the 80% forecast, the annoying logical side of my brain tells me we should expect a regression in HR/FB and BABIP and the baseline is more reasonable. Really, any of those projections make Robertson better than Rafael Soriano, who’s getting paid more than all but four relievers in the history of baseball.
When Joe Girardi anointed Joba Chamberlain as his official seventh inning guy early into last season, I was very annoyed. Primarily because it meant that he’d be using a bullpen-by-numbers approach and not trying to take advantage of matchups or any other things that require a more flexible approach. But another part of that annoyance was that I felt Robertson was a better reliever than Joba, and I didn’t understand why he was below him in the pecking order. Robertson forced Girardi’s hand, made the All Star Team and even got MVP and Cy Young votes in 2011. Not bad for a 17th round draft pick who wasn’t really ever considered a prospect. I also think it was awesome that Robertson started the High Socks for Hope charity to help people recover from the horrible tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama last year.
I think Robertson will have another strong year, and may cement himself into position to be the heir to Mo should Mo decided it’s time to go. Those are some pretty big shoes to fill, but an unflappable guy like Robertson (who struck out 14 of the 19 batters he faced with the bases loaded last year) might be the best candidate for it.
Looking Ahead to 2012 - Rafael Soriano
I’m waiting on how the back end of the bullpen is shaping up so I figured I’d write about my favorite signing from last offseason until that’s done.
2011
According to Baseball References’s version of wins above replacement(WAR), there were 109 pitchers who were worth at least 0.7 WAR. That’s what Rafael Soriano was worth in 2011, ranking at 101 on the list for all relief pitchers. According to the linked list, he was worth less than Edgmer Escalona, who I am convinced is fictitious. He was worth less than Logan Ondrusek. He was worth less than Kameron Lo and Cristhian Martinez. Anyway, this is all just a long way of saying there were 100 relievers who were more valuable than him in 2011.
There were four relievers in baseball that made more money than Soriano in 2011. Mariano Rivera, Brad Lidge, Francisco Rodriguez and Joe Nathan. In fact, those are the only four relievers in MLB history to earn as much as Soriano’s contract will pay him per year over its duration. So aside from the 96 pitchers who provided more value than Soriano and earned less than him, it was a great signing.
I’m not sure if I ever mentioned how I feel about the Soriano signing. I wasn’t particularly enamored with it, but that was more because I felt it was an overpay and not because I didn’t think he was a good reliever. So you can imagine my dismay as I watched him storm out of the gate to a 7.84 ERA through April 26. He then pitched shutout ball over his next five games before winding up on the DL. After returning from the DL he pitched decently enough, with a 3.33 ERA and 26 Ks in 24.1 innings, but that’s really not the kind of performance you pay $12M per year for. Unless you’re the buffoon who made the signing.
Anyway, while the Soriano contract is in the discussion for worst contract ever, it doesn’t mean Soriano can’t provide 5 cents on the dollar’s worth of value in 2012.
2012 Projections
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 45 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 5 | 16 | 43 | 3.82 | 3.60 | 3.64 | 8 | 0.8 |
| davenport | 60 | 52 | 25 | 24 | 7 | 20 | 56 | 3.75 | 3.60 | 3.71 | 16 | 1.6 |
| marcel | 51 | 43 | 21 | 19 | 5 | 18 | 46 | 3.71 | 3.35 | 3.59 | 12 | 1.2 |
| oliver | 55 | 48 | 24 | 21 | 6 | 18 | 52 | 3.86 | 3.49 | 3.57 | 12 | 1.2 |
| pecota | 54 | 43 | 20 | 18 | 6 | 17 | 57 | 3.26 | 2.94 | 3.34 | 11 | 1.1 |
| steamer | 47 | 44 | 22 | 20 | 6 | 16 | 43 | 4.16 | 3.77 | 4.02 | 8 | 0.8 |
| zips | 63 | 50 | 24 | 22 | 6 | 21 | 74 | 3.43 | 3.14 | 3.04 | 16 | 1.6 |
| average | 54 | 45 | 22 | 20 | 6 | 18 | 53 | 3.71 | 3.41 | 3.56 | 12 | 1.2 |
| 2011 | 39 | 33 | 18 | 18 | 4 | 18 | 36 | 4.14 | 4.14 | 3.95 | 7 | 0.7 |
| LgAvg | 39 | 39 | 20 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 29 | 4.15 | 3.82 | 3.82 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average as frames of reference. League average is based on role (starters vs. relievers), and is not adjusted for park so unlike with hitters mentally adjust that down a bit.
Those are some amazingly great projections. You can count the number of relievers who could give you 50-55 innings of 3.41 ERA on about 30 hands. Or 15 hands and 15 feet.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 68 | 46 | 22 | 21 | 4 | 18 | 74 | 2.95 | 2.76 | 2.52 | 24 | 2.4 |
| 65% | 59 | 44 | 22 | 21 | 5 | 18 | 60 | 3.38 | 3.18 | 3.09 | 18 | 1.8 |
| Baseline | 45 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 5 | 16 | 43 | 3.82 | 3.60 | 3.66 | 8 | 0.8 |
| 35% | 36 | 32 | 17 | 16 | 5 | 14 | 32 | 4.25 | 4.03 | 4.21 | 7 | 0.7 |
| 20% | 32 | 30 | 17 | 16 | 5 | 14 | 25 | 4.69 | 4.45 | 4.75 | 5 | 0.5 |
I think we’ll see Soriano at that 20% forecast but he won’t pitch that many innings.
David Robertson’s emergence helped cover for a signing that was idiotic at the time and continues to look worse and worse. If Joba Chamberlain was healthy I’d guess the Yankees would have three right-handed relievers who were better than Soriano. But with Joba out, Soriano will be called upon to pitch those crucial seventh innings. You can’t get to the eighth if you don’t get out of the seventh, right?
Monday, April 2, 2012
Looking Ahead to 2012 - Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia
Ivan Nova
Time to double up on these with Opening Day fast approaching. I’m hoping to have my projected standings up tomorrow, so today we’ll round out the rest of the opening day rotation by looking at Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia.
After a decent showing in his 2010 MLB debut, albeit one with shaky peripherals, Ivan Nova earned a spot in the Yankee rotation to start 2011. Nova’s main calling card as a prospect was his fastball velocity, but until 2009 he hadn’t really shown the type of performance you’d like to see in a pitching prospect.
Because of that track record, his projections heading into the season weren’t pretty.
| projecton | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR | BABIP |
| cairo | 22 | 116 | 130 | 72 | 67 | 15 | 49 | 72 | 5.59 | 5.20 | 5.04 | 5 | 0.5 | .303 |
| marcel | 17 | 71 | 69 | 35 | 32 | 7 | 26 | 52 | 4.44 | 4.06 | 4.20 | 12 | 1.2 | .287 |
| oliver | 37 | 155 | 170 | 90 | 82 | 18 | 69 | 97 | 5.24 | 4.79 | 4.80 | 13 | 1.3 | .302 |
| pecota | 20 | 119 | 136 | 75 | 69 | 15 | 53 | 66 | 5.68 | 5.23 | 5.19 | 4 | 0.4 | .303 |
| zips | 28 | 150 | 170 | 94 | 88 | 19 | 69 | 88 | 5.65 | 5.29 | 5.18 | 5 | 0.5 | .304 |
| average* | 25 | 122 | 135 | 73 | 68 | 15 | 53 | 75 | 5.40 | 4.99 | 4.97 | 8 | 0.8 | .301 |
| 2010 | 33 | 187 | 179 | 72 | 67 | 14 | 65 | 141 | 3.47 | 3.22 | 3.74 | 52 | 5.2 | .291 |
| 2011 | 27 | 159 | 155 | 70 | 64 | 13 | 57 | 95 | 3.96 | 3.62 | 4.14 | 35 | 3.5 | .279 |
RA/ERA: Runs/Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher(park and role-adjusted, using RA)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play
The 2010 line includes his minor league performance so ignore that RSAR/WAR. As you can see Nova exceeded just about every projection in 2011.
2011
So was Nova lucky? Probably a bit, but we do have some evidence of genuine development. For the majority of pitchers, their effectiveness ties directly into their command of the strike zone. It’s the reason Mariano Rivera has been the best closer of all time, for example. You can look at the percentage of batters a pitcher walks and strikes out (and or their K/BB ratio) as a proxy for strike zone command. But don’t just take my word for it.
The fear with Nova, and the primary reason he didn’t get much respect among more statistically inclined analysts was that he had walked about 7.7% of the batters he’d faced in the minors while striking out 16.8%, a K/BB ratio of 2.19. You can be a useful pitcher in MLB with a K/BB ratio like that in MLB, but translating that from the minors doesn’t give you much of a margin of error.
In 2011, Nova walked 8.1% of the batters he faced and struck out 13.9%. His K/BB ratio of 1.72 was less than stellar, and although he had a decent FIP of 4.01 it was buoyed by a lower than average HR/FB rate, a particularly impressive achievement in DNYS.
That’s not to say it’s all doom and gloom for Nova. Even his xFIP, which corrects for HR/FB rate, was a more than respectable 4.16, which is fine for a middle of the rotation guy. In addition to that, if we go a little deeper into his numbers we can find evidence of the aforementioned genuine development. In this case it’s in his splits through May 28, and his splits afterwards. Why that date? That’s the date his slider appeared to become another weapon.
| dates | ip | bf | h | hr | bb | k | ra | era | fip | xfip |
| 4/4-5/28 | 54 | 246 | 62 | 4 | 24 | 27 | 5.50 | 4.67 | 4.37 | 4.96 |
| 6/3-9/25 | 105 | 431 | 93 | 9 | 33 | 68 | 3.17 | 3.09 | 3.83 | 4.01 |
| Dates | fb% | gb% | ld% | bb/bf | k/bf | babip | hr/fb |
| 4/4-5/28 | 28.4% | 54.2% | 17.4% | 9.8% | 11.0% | .312 | 7.4% |
| 6/3-9/25 | 29.3% | 51.5% | 19.1% | 7.7% | 15.8% | .267 | 9.5% |
bf: batters faced
fip: Fielding independent pitching
xfip: Expected fip (uses league average hr/fb rate instead of actual hr)
fb% Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
gb% Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
ld% Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
bb/bf: walks per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
babip: batting average on balls in play
Nova’s ERA/RA was still a bit better than you’d expect from his peripherals post-slider, but they support the notion that Nova can be a capable starting pitcher in MLB. We always want to be cautious about drawing large meaning from small samples, but changes in walk rate and strikeout rate stabilize more quickly than changes in most other stats, for both pitchers and hitters.
So what about 2012?
2012 Projections
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 129 | 135 | 71 | 65 | 15 | 52 | 80 | 4.93 | 4.50 | 4.52 | 17 | 1.7 |
| davenport | 132 | 131 | 62 | 61 | 13 | 50 | 79 | 4.24 | 4.17 | 4.33 | 27 | 2.7 |
| marcel | 144 | 138 | 65 | 59 | 12 | 49 | 98 | 4.06 | 3.69 | 3.85 | 27 | 2.7 |
| oliver | 170 | 178 | 89 | 81 | 16 | 63 | 103 | 4.74 | 4.30 | 4.23 | 21 | 2.1 |
| pecota | 156 | 177 | 96 | 87 | 18 | 62 | 90 | 5.53 | 5.03 | 4.64 | 8 | 0.8 |
| steamer | 165 | 174 | 93 | 85 | 15 | 68 | 102 | 5.08 | 4.61 | 4.27 | 12 | 1.2 |
| zips | 178 | 189 | 94 | 88 | 20 | 60 | 111 | 4.74 | 4.44 | 4.33 | 20 | 2.0 |
| average | 153 | 160 | 81 | 75 | 15 | 58 | 95 | 4.76 | 4.39 | 4.31 | 19 | 1.9 |
| 2011 | 165 | 163 | 74 | 68 | 13 | 57 | 98 | 4.03 | 3.71 | 3.98 | 35 | 3.5 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average as frames of reference. League average is based on role (starters vs. relievers), and is not adjusted for park so unlike with hitters mentally adjust that up a bit.
The consensus now is that Nova can be a bit better than league average, particularly if you give him a full starter’s workload. That’s a big step up from his projections entering last year and that’s probably a solid #3 in an average MLB rotation, at a cost-controlled salary. I think his 16-4 record in 2011 may lead the MSM and some fans to overrate him, but that’s not his fault. You’d have to imagine the Yankees hope to see him more like a #5 should they get a healthy and effective Phil Hughes and Michael Pineda this year, but I don’t really like the odds of both of those things happening right now.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 194 | 186 | 94 | 85 | 16 | 67 | 133 | 4.34 | 3.94 | 3.84 | 38 | 3.8 |
| 65% | 168 | 168 | 87 | 79 | 16 | 62 | 110 | 4.64 | 4.22 | 4.18 | 27 | 2.7 |
| Baseline | 129 | 135 | 71 | 65 | 15 | 52 | 80 | 4.93 | 4.50 | 4.51 | 17 | 1.7 |
| 35% | 103 | 113 | 60 | 55 | 13 | 44 | 60 | 5.22 | 4.78 | 4.84 | 10 | 1.0 |
| 20% | 90 | 103 | 55 | 51 | 13 | 41 | 50 | 5.52 | 5.06 | 5.17 | 6 | 0.6 |
CAIRO is actually less sanguine on Nova than the average projection, but that 65% forecast is probably about what you’d expect if he were to repeat his 2011 with a bit less of the good fortune in HR/FB rate and BABIP.
I’d probably be more worried about Nova’s 6.86 spring training ERA if he hadn’t walked one hitter and struck out 14 of them. But since he has, I’m not. He may end up out of the rotation if everyone is healthy and effective this year, but that never really happens.
Freddy Garcia
I have to admit I expected nothing out of either Freddy Garcia or Bartolo Colon last year. At this point it seems like Garcia is superfluous, but at the time he was signed the Yankee rotation was CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Ivan Nova and 2011 Phil Hughes. That the Yankees subsequently added three pitchers who are probably better options for the rotation than Garcia isn’t his fault, and I’ve seen no evidence that he hasn’t acted professionally even though his short and long-term role on the Yankees has been in doubt. With Michael Pineda out with tendinitis and Andy Pettitte working his way back from retirement, Garcia will open the year in the rotation.
2010 & 2011 Projections
| projecton | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR | BABIP |
| cairo | 31 | 31 | 32 | 17 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 4.94 | 4.65 | 4.62 | 2 | 0.2 | .292 |
| marcel | 25 | 144 | 152 | 76 | 72 | 18 | 44 | 91 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.54 | 12 | 1.2 | .291 |
| oliver | 18 | 101 | 111 | 63 | 60 | 15 | 29 | 62 | 5.64 | 5.35 | 4.76 | -2 | -0.2 | .294 |
| pecota | 20 | 109 | 119 | 63 | 58 | 17 | 33 | 68 | 5.23 | 4.81 | 4.97 | 3 | 0.3 | .291 |
| zips | 15 | 82 | 90 | 47 | 44 | 12 | 23 | 51 | 5.16 | 4.83 | 4.77 | 3 | 0.3 | .295 |
| average* | 22 | 93 | 101 | 53 | 50 | 13 | 28 | 59 | 5.14 | 4.82 | 4.75 | 4 | 0.4 | .292 |
| 2010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #### | ###### | ##### | ##### | ##### |
| 2011 | 25 | 141 | 146 | 63 | 59 | 16 | 44 | 93 | 4.03 | 3.77 | 4.29 | 23 | 2.3 | .292 |
RA/ERA: Runs/Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher(park and role-adjusted, using RA)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play
I guess the most amazing thing is going from not pitching at all in 2010 to giving the team 141 strong innings. His FIP is probably a better indicator of how effective Garcia actually was, but he certainly blew away every projection.
2011
Garcia doesn’t throw had anymore. He came up throwing in the mid-90s but injuries have him sitting around 87 mph with his fastball, which has forced him to become more reliant on his secondary stuff. In some ways he was like a less-effective Mike Mussina circa 2008. Garcia increased his use of his split finger fastball last year, including one that was used in a physics lecture in Australia about how to curve a baseball. He had a higher than typical percentage of runners left on base and like Nova allowed a few less HRs per fly ball than an average pitcher. Throw in another year of aging and it’s probably a safe bet he won’t be quite as effective as last year, but here’s what the projections say.
2012 Projections
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 102 | 112 | 51 | 48 | 12 | 30 | 64 | 4.55 | 4.28 | 4.28 | 17 | 1.7 |
| davenport | 56 | 60 | 32 | 31 | 8 | 17 | 31 | 5.12 | 4.96 | 4.73 | 6 | 0.6 |
| marcel | 149 | 156 | 72 | 67 | 17 | 46 | 97 | 4.36 | 4.06 | 4.19 | 23 | 2.3 |
| oliver | 136 | 150 | 73 | 68 | 16 | 39 | 79 | 4.84 | 4.50 | 4.31 | 14 | 1.4 |
| pecota | 126 | 140 | 72 | 67 | 17 | 37 | 83 | 5.13 | 4.78 | 4.40 | 7 | 0.7 |
| steamer | 113 | 121 | 61 | 57 | 15 | 30 | 69 | 4.88 | 4.54 | 4.41 | 11 | 1.1 |
| zips | 128 | 143 | 74 | 69 | 18 | 40 | 75 | 5.20 | 4.85 | 4.64 | 8 | 0.8 |
| average | 116 | 126 | 63 | 59 | 15 | 34 | 71 | 4.87 | 4.57 | 4.42 | 12 | 1.2 |
| 2011 | 146 | 152 | 63 | 59 | 16 | 45 | 96 | 3.88 | 3.63 | 4.09 | 23 | 2.3 |
| LgAvg | 146 | 148 | 75 | 68 | 17 | 46 | 107 | 4.60 | 4.21 | 4.21 |
Not surprising that Garcia’s expected to drop across the board, although Davenport, PECOTA and ZiPS are expecting a major fall off. Still, as the ostensible seventh starter on the team you could do worse.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 152 | 152 | 66 | 62 | 13 | 36 | 108 | 3.91 | 3.66 | 3.55 | 37 | 3.7 |
| 65% | 132 | 138 | 62 | 58 | 14 | 35 | 88 | 4.23 | 3.97 | 3.93 | 27 | 2.7 |
| Baseline | 102 | 112 | 51 | 48 | 12 | 30 | 64 | 4.55 | 4.28 | 4.30 | 17 | 1.7 |
| 35% | 81 | 94 | 44 | 41 | 11 | 26 | 48 | 4.86 | 4.59 | 4.67 | 11 | 1.1 |
| 20% | 71 | 86 | 41 | 39 | 11 | 24 | 39 | 5.18 | 4.89 | 5.03 | 7 | 0.7 |
I think in this case the 35% forecast is probably closer to how Garcia will perform and how often he’ll pitch. There’s a lot of uncertainty with Andy Pettitte and Michael Pineda that could end up with the Yankees needing him more often than that though, and I’m not sure counting on a full season out of Phil Hughes is wise yet. Garcia could still be expendable if the Yankees feel his innings can be mostly replaced by some combination of Adam Warren, David Phelps, D.J. Mitchell, Dellin Betances or Manny Banuelos, but they probably have some time to determine that.
The Yankees’ postseason hopes if they should make it by some miracle may not be affected all that much by Nova and Garcia. You’d have to think the postseason rotation would contain some combination of CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, Michael Pineda and/or Andy Pettitte. But you do have to get there first, and Nova and Garcia can be big parts of that.
Sunday, April 1, 2012
NJ.com: Yankees’ Cesar Cabral suffers injury as his bullpen shot fades
“It’s frustrating, because he had a really good camp for us,” manager Joe Girardi said.
Cabral, who will be placed on the 15-day disabled list, allowed just two earned runs in 11⅓ innings this spring. He had been battling with veteran Clay Rapada, who will likely begin the season as the second lefty.
The Yankees acquired Cabral via the Rule 5 draft, though his stay on the DL will allow the team to retain his rights.
I guess this makes it easier to keep Cabral in the organization, which I think is a good thing.
Saturday, March 31, 2012
NYDN: With injury on top of insult, Yankees’ Michael Pineda losing grip on job
TAMPA — As he stood in the corner of the clubhouse, surrounded by reporters, a despondent Michael Pineda seemed to be doing everything he could not to cry. He was that upset.
“I tried to throw hard today,” he said softly.
He wanted to end the talk about his unexpectedly low velocity on this night. He wanted to throw 95, 96, 97 mph. Instead the radar gun again showed his fastball to be mostly about 91 mph, and at least partly as a result, the Phillies roughed him up, knocking him out in the third inning.
So Pineda seems to know now that something isn’t right. He admitted to feeling some soreness in the back of his right shoulder while he was pitching, and though he called it “normal sore,’’ it’s the first time he mentioned anything like this.
That alone has to be alarming to the Yankees, who had been publicly downplaying concern about his lack of velocity but worrying about it privately.
You get the sense that a lot of the media have been champing at the bit to write this article, or some variation of it. Let’s hope the tests reveal nothing serious.
Update: Bombers Beat: Pineda headed for DL with shoulder tendinitis
The MRI taken on Yankees right-hander Michael Pineda showed right shoulder tendinitis, manager Joe Girardi told reporters in Kissimmee, Fla. this morning. Pineda will be placed on the 15-day disabled list and the Yankees figure to treat him conservatively, but all things considered this is good news, considering the worst-case scenarios.
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Sporting News: Yankees sign Jack Cust to minor league contract
The New York Yankees have signed free-agent DH/outfielder Jack Cust to a minor league deal, according to WFAN.
Cust was released by the Houston Astros on Tuesday after he went 1-for-25 with eight strikeouts in Grapefruit League play this spring. This past offseason, the Astros signed him to a one-year deal with a team option for 2013.
Cust is 33, which surprised me. I figured he was like 50. Here are his CAIRO projections as a Yankee.
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAR |
| 80% | 362 | 303 | 49 | 84 | 19 | 1 | 17 | 49 | 3 | 0 | 66 | 95 | 3 | 4 | .277 | .426 | .516 | .418 | 65 | 18 |
| 65% | 332 | 278 | 42 | 73 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 57 | 93 | 4 | 3 | .261 | .399 | .471 | .388 | 52 | 9 |
| Baseline | 302 | 253 | 35 | 62 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 48 | 89 | 4 | 2 | .246 | .372 | .427 | .358 | 41 | 2 |
| 35% | 272 | 228 | 29 | 52 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 40 | 84 | 5 | 1 | .230 | .345 | .382 | .327 | 31 | -4 |
| 20% | 242 | 202 | 23 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 79 | 5 | 0 | .215 | .318 | .338 | .297 | 23 | -8 |
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
The baseline projection is effectively replacement level for a DH, but the OBP is intriguing. His platoon split projections also indicate some possible upside.
| split | pa | ab | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | so | hbp | gdp | avg | obp | slg | woba |
| vs. LHP | 95 | 81 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 29 | 1 | 1 | .226 | .345 | .393 | .323 |
| Vs. RHP | 275 | 229 | 58 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 43 | 80 | 2 | 4 | .253 | .381 | .438 | .361 |
| Overall | 370 | 310 | 76 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 56 | 109 | 2 | 5 | .246 | .372 | .427 | .351 |
In terms of offense between Cust and Raul Iganez vs. LHP, the difference is minimal.
| player | pa | ab | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | so | hbp | gdp | avg | obp | slg | woba | outs | br |
| Cust vs. RHP | 400 | 333 | 84 | 18 | 1 | 16 | 62 | 116 | 2 | 6 | .253 | .381 | .438 | .361 | 255 | 57 |
| Ibanez vs. RHP | 400 | 359 | 98 | 23 | 2 | 16 | 37 | 65 | 1 | 10 | .272 | .342 | .470 | .348 | 271 | 56 |
However, the key thing here is that over 400 PA Cust projects to make 16 fewer outs. Those outs can theoretically go to better hitters.
He can’t run the bases at all, and he’s a disaster defensively, but he’s a nice option to have sitting around in the event that Ibanez get DFA’d if Russell Branyan’s not an option.
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Looking Ahead to 2012 - Michael Pineda
In a move that came out of nowhere, the Yankees traded Jesus Montero, their top prospect, for Michael Pineda. Pineda had a very good rookie year for Seattle in 2011, but getting him came at a heavy price. It’ll probably take at least five years to see if the trade was worth it, but it’s already been analyzed and judged heavily and will surely continue to be.
2011
Pineda wasn’t a lock to make the Mariners’ rotation out of spring training last year, but he made the team thanks to a good spring training. His first half/second half splits have been beaten to death, but I’ll re-post this table that I posted right after the trade.
| pitcher | fb% | gb% | ld% | bb/bf | k/bf | babip | hr/fb | fip | xfip |
| A | 49.1% | 31.4% | 19.5% | 7.9% | 24.7% | .249 | 5.9% | 3.01 | 3.98 |
| B | 37.8% | 44.2% | 18.0% | 7.9% | 25.1% | .296 | 15.4% | 4.01 | 3.42 |
fb% Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
gb% Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
ld% Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
bb/bf: walks per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
babip: batting average on balls in play
fip: Fielding independent pitching
xfip: Expected fip (uses league average hr/fb rate instead of actual hr)
A is Pineda through July 4, and B is Pineda afterwards.
If you go by ERA, Pineda was much worse in the second half (2.58 through July 4, 5.71 after). However, there’s a lot of noise in ERA that isn’t necessarily related to the pitcher’s performance. Every peripheral stat of Pineda’s except for his HR/FB rate and his BABIP was better in the second half, and those are probably the two most volatile stats a pitcher can have.
Stats are only part of the story, but what about his stuff? Here are Pineda’s average velocities by pitch type for each month in 2011.
| Month | FFv | SLv | CHv |
| 4 | 95.4 | 84.2 | 87.2 |
| 5 | 95.3 | 84.8 | 87.4 |
| 6 | 94.4 | 83.7 | 86.4 |
| 7 | 94.7 | 83.7 | 86.6 |
| 8 | 94.0 | 84.3 | 85.9 |
| 9 | 93.6 | 83.0 | 85.7 |
| All | 94.7 | 84.0 | 86.3 |
FFv: Four-seam fastball velocity
SLv: Slider velocity
CHv: Changeup velocity
Here are Pineda’s average four-seam fastball velocities for each game in 2011.
4/5: 95.2
4/12: 95.5
4/17: 97.2
4/22: 95.5
4/28: 95.2
5/4: 96.9
5/10: 95.8
5/16: 94.5
5/21: 94.0
5/27: 95.3
6/1: 94.1
6/6: 95.7
6/11: 95.2
6/17: 94.2
6/23: 93.0
6/28: 94.1
7/4: 93.9
7/9: 94.6
7/19: 95.4
7/24: 94.6
7/30: 94.8
8/9: 94.7
8/15: 94.5
8/21: 92.8
8/27: 94.1
9/3: 93.6
9/10: 94.7
9/21: 91.4

There was a gradual decrease as the season wore on, and the big drop between 9/10 and 9/21 is a little alarming, but he only threw 44 fastballs in that 9/21 game(out of 81 total pitches) and I don’t know if it’s anything more than a blip. His average fastball velocity through the end of June was 95 mph, and it was 94.1 mph over the rest of the season.
Velocity’s an important part of being a good MLB pitcher, but it’s not the only part. Much has been made about Pineda’s underwhelming velocity so far this spring, where’s he’s topping out below where he averaged last year. He’s also throwing with less velocity than he did last spring. However, he’s not trying to make the team like he was last year, and he’s probably focusing more on developing his changeup which has lagged behind his fastball and slider. Because of that, I think the obsession with his velocity in exhibition games is a little misguided, although I suppose controversy sells and there’s not a whole lot else that’s controversial for this year’s version of the Yankees so far.
2012 Projections
Pineda’s moving from a pitcher’s park to a disgraceful bandbox. Although Seattle has a better defensive reputation than the Yankees, the Yankees’ defensive OF is a good one and as a flyball pitcher he shouldn’t see that much of an impact from any decline in the defense behind him.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 168 | 150 | 82 | 76 | 21 | 53 | 157 | 4.37 | 4.06 | 3.79 | 32 | 3.2 |
| davenport | 165 | 150 | 75 | 74 | 19 | 48 | 141 | 4.10 | 4.04 | 3.74 | 36 | 3.6 |
| marcel | 146 | 118 | 63 | 59 | 15 | 46 | 142 | 3.89 | 3.65 | 3.42 | 30 | 3.0 |
| oliver | 131 | 114 | 52 | 48 | 14 | 37 | 124 | 3.56 | 3.33 | 3.43 | 30 | 3.0 |
| pecota | 148 | 137 | 66 | 62 | 18 | 50 | 136 | 4.02 | 3.77 | 3.84 | 31 | 3.1 |
| steamer | 159 | 147 | 68 | 64 | 19 | 55 | 148 | 3.87 | 3.63 | 3.81 | 33 | 3.3 |
| zips | 158 | 149 | 77 | 72 | 19 | 51 | 143 | 4.40 | 4.11 | 3.86 | 24 | 2.4 |
| average | 153 | 138 | 69 | 65 | 18 | 48 | 142 | 4.03 | 3.80 | 3.70 | 31 | 3.1 |
| 2011 | 171 | 133 | 76 | 71 | 18 | 55 | 173 | 4.00 | 3.74 | 3.40 | 36 | 3.6 |
| LgAvg | 171 | 173 | 87 | 80 | 19 | 54 | 125 | 4.60 | 4.21 | 4.21 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average as frames of reference. League average is based on role (starters vs. relievers), and is not adjusted for park so unlike with hitters mentally adjust that down a bit.
Pineda’s professional innings progression looks like this.
2006: 20.1 IP in Rookie ball
2007: 59.0 IP in Rookie ball
2008: 138.1 IP in Class A
2009: 47.1 IP in Rookie and A+
2010: 139.1 IP in AA and AAA
2011: 171.0 IP in MLB
Pineda missed a large chunk of 2009 with an elbow injury, but returned from that having put on about 25 pounds and a few MPH of velocity. Last year was his career high in innings pitched, and it came in the majors where innings are more stressful due to the greater caliber of competition. That may or may not explain some of his lower velocity, which means he may be able to get it back as his stamina increases. It’s probably worth noting that velocity peaks pretty early in most pitchers’ career, and Pineda may never throw as hard as he did last year. That doesn’t mean he can’t be a good pitcher without it, of course.
Pineda’s projections are reasonably consistent across the board. They’re low on innings since he has never pitched as many innings as he did last year, and ZiPS is probably seeing a rougher transition to the AL East and DNYS than the others. According to Baseball Reference there were 28 AL pitchers that had at least 3.0 WAR last year.
Pineda himself just missed the cut off with 2.8. Pineda’s average projection would qualify for the most basic definition of a #2 starter in the AL (one of the top 28 pitchers in the league). Obviously, we hope for more than that.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 202 | 166 | 87 | 81 | 20 | 55 | 204 | 3.89 | 3.60 | 3.17 | 49 | 4.9 |
| 65% | 185 | 159 | 85 | 79 | 21 | 54 | 180 | 4.13 | 3.83 | 3.48 | 40 | 4.0 |
| Baseline | 168 | 150 | 82 | 76 | 21 | 53 | 157 | 4.37 | 4.06 | 3.79 | 32 | 3.2 |
| 35% | 135 | 125 | 69 | 64 | 19 | 45 | 121 | 4.61 | 4.30 | 4.09 | 22 | 2.2 |
| 20% | 118 | 114 | 64 | 59 | 18 | 42 | 101 | 4.86 | 4.53 | 4.39 | 16 | 1.6 |
The 65% forecast seems like the bare minimum for what Pineda can do to justify being traded for Jesus Montero, who’s going to win the AL MVP and Cy Young. For whatever it’s worth, since 2000 there have been 21 Yankee pitchers who put up a season of 3.9 WAR or more.
I hated seeing Jesus Montero get traded, but Mariners fans also hated seeing Pineda get traded. That probably means that the trade was a fair one. Getting Pineda for Montero made a lot more sense than trading him for a half season of Cliff Lee or for Felix Hernandez being paid at market rate. Pineda’s not as good as either pitcher right now, and may never be, but he’ll be under team control for the next five seasons and he’ll probably be getting paid less than he’s worth and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see him elevate himself into the upper echelon of MLB pitchers if he can refine his changeup and get that fastball back.
Put it this way, if Dellin Betances had done in AAA what Pineda did last year in the majors we’d all be convinced he was on the precipice of being a very good MLB pitcher. Also, throw in the fact that Pineda did this while being a year younger than Betances.
With a pitcher, you assume more risk than you do with a position player. But while Montero had a nice MLB debut, he really hasn’t hit all that well in AAA the last two years and it’s still uncertain he’ll be anything more than a DH. I hope he goes on to have a solid career, while Pineda develops into the best pitcher in baseball and/or pitches them to a few World Series wins. If that happens and Jose Campos develops into an eighth inning guy, the Yankees will have probably won the trade.
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Looking Ahead to 2012 - Phil Hughes
By the time a baseball player’s been in the major leagues for five seasons, you generally have a pretty good idea of what he is. In Phil Hughes’s case we know that
a) He was arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball at one time (Baseball America had him as the #2 prospect behind Daisuke Matsuzaka in 2007.
b) He came up at age 21 and carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning of his second start before injuring his hamstring and missing a large chunk of the year. He returned from that injury and ended the season by giving the team 72 league average innings.
c) He followed that up by being awful and then getting injured again in 2008.
d) He started 2009 in the minors but was called up when Chien-Ming Wang went on the DL. He didn’t pitch all that well over his first seven starts and when Wang returned from the DL he was shifted to the bullpen instead of the minors. He then proceeded to outpitch every single reliever in the American League over the rest of the season.
e) He built on that by storming out of the gate as a full-fledged rotation member in 2010, making the All Star team. Unfortunately, his second half wasn’t quite as good.
Then came 2011.
2011
Hughes’s velocity was down all spring in 2011. While the Yankees kept saying publically they weren’t concerned about it, it never got better and after Hughes gave the team three dreadful starts of 13.94 ERA they determined he had tendinitis and he was shut down for a few months. Hughes was better upon returning, but not great as he finished the year with a 4.48 ERA over his final 65.1 innings.
So all this is a really long way of saying that even though Phil Hughes is entering his sixth major league season, we really have no idea what he is.
2012 Projections
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Hughes came into camp in great shape this year. His velocity has been better than it was at this time last year and he seems to have better secondary stuff as well. Although we have no idea what Hughes is, that doesn’t stop us silly forecasters from trying to forecast him anyway.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 95 | 97 | 49 | 47 | 12 | 32 | 74 | 4.63 | 4.49 | 4.26 | 15 | 1.5 |
| davenport | 147 | 144 | 74 | 73 | 18 | 44 | 109 | 4.53 | 4.47 | 4.09 | 25 | 2.5 |
| marcel | 103 | 98 | 50 | 49 | 12 | 34 | 84 | 4.37 | 4.28 | 3.96 | 16 | 1.6 |
| oliver | 119 | 118 | 54 | 53 | 14 | 39 | 94 | 4.11 | 4.03 | 4.02 | 18 | 1.8 |
| pecota | 135 | 129 | 59 | 58 | 16 | 46 | 119 | 3.92 | 3.84 | 3.89 | 22 | 2.2 |
| steamer | 107 | 107 | 52 | 51 | 15 | 37 | 82 | 4.40 | 4.31 | 4.45 | 16 | 1.6 |
| zips | 123 | 127 | 71 | 66 | 18 | 44 | 96 | 5.21 | 4.84 | 4.55 | 7 | 0.7 |
| average | 118 | 117 | 59 | 57 | 15 | 40 | 94 | 4.45 | 4.32 | 4.18 | 17 | 1.7 |
| 2011 | 74 | 84 | 48 | 48 | 9 | 27 | 47 | 5.82 | 5.82 | 4.56 | 4.4 | 0.4 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average as frames of reference. League average is based on role (starters vs. relievers), and is not adjusted for park so unlike with hitters mentally adjust that down a bit.
The projections expect a better Hughes in 2012, closer to his 2010 than his 2011 albeit in fewer innings. Despite CAIRO’s Yankee bias, it’s not even the most bullish on Hughes, until we look at these.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 190 | 175 | 83 | 81 | 18 | 53 | 165 | 3.96 | 3.84 | 3.35 | 45 | 4.5 |
| 65% | 142 | 139 | 68 | 66 | 16 | 44 | 117 | 4.30 | 4.16 | 3.76 | 28 | 2.8 |
| Baseline | 95 | 97 | 49 | 47 | 12 | 32 | 74 | 4.63 | 4.49 | 4.18 | 15 | 1.5 |
| 35% | 76 | 82 | 42 | 41 | 11 | 28 | 56 | 4.96 | 4.82 | 4.58 | 10 | 1.0 |
| 20% | 47 | 54 | 28 | 27 | 8 | 19 | 33 | 5.29 | 5.14 | 4.96 | 4 | 0.4 |
I really think that 80% forecast is in his range, although I would put the FIP closer to the ERA.
It’s easy to forget that Hughes is still just 26 years old. He hasn’t been the superstar we hoped he’d be when he was in the minors, but overall he’s been about league average. If he’s ever going to take a step forward, a year before potential free agency seems like the time to do it.
Monday, March 26, 2012
NYDailyNews: Yankees’ Phil Hughes wraps up spot in starting rotation early: source
TAMPA — The Yankees are unlikely to make anything official for another week or so, but it appears that Phil Hughes has captured a spot in the rotation.
According to a source, “it would be a shock” if Hughes wasn’t one of the Yankees’ five starters when the season opened, as his spring has given the Bombers hope that the 18-game winner of 2010 is back.
Hughes threw six innings of two-run ball in a minor-league game at the Yankees’ complex Monday, continuing his impressive spring and taking another step toward putting his hellish 2011 season behind him.
“I’ve done everything I can do,” Hughes said. “Whatever direction they want to go in, it’s their call. I feel like right now, I’m doing everything I can to make that decision as hard as possible. That’s all I really wanted to do.”
NYDN: Yankees’ Alex Rodriguez hit by 95-mph pitch by Detroit Tigers’ Brian Villareal
TAMPA - The Yankees got a brief jolt Sunday when Alex Rodriguez was drilled in the rib cage by a 95-mph fastball thrown by Detroit’s Brayan Villareal. A-Rod grimaced and crumpled to the ground, clutching his side.
He was up quickly and, neither he nor Joe Girardi was worried afterward.
“Everything good,” Rodriguez said. “Ready to go.”
“He’s OK, the doctor checked him out and he’s fine,” Girardi said. “I expect him back in there on Tuesday.”
Although it seems like Rodriguez is fine, this was a reminder of the biggest problem facing the Yankees this year. An injury to one of their starting eight position players would expose just how thin they are behind the starters.
In other assorted crap.
NY Times: Pineda Hits the Gas, and His Fastball’s Speed Jumps
I only watched a couple of innings from yesterday’s game and I didn’t see anything over 91. I’m still not going to worry about Pineda’s velocity until the games start to count.
NY Post: Joba leaves hospital; Yankees manager confident in comeback
If the Yankees can put together a sixth by committee until Joba’s return, they may be able to weather this blow. Seriously though, this sounds encouraging considering where things were right after the injury. I still doubt we’ll see him back this year, but I hope he’s able to make a full recovery.
Sunday, March 25, 2012
Yankees vs. Tigers: March 25, 2012 Spring Training Chatter
Tune in on YES to watch soft-tossing Michael Pineda continue his futile struggle to break into the Yankees’ rotation.
NYDailyNews: Yankees’ Freddy Garcia a hit again in return to mound vs. Detroit Tigers
Garcia has a 2.91 ERA in four spring starts, allowing 10 hits in 12.1 innings while striking out 11 and walking four. Girardi said he probably won’t decide on the back end of the Yankee rotation until April 3 or 4, meaning there is still time for Garcia to impress.
Garcia says he doesn’t mind the competition for a job, noting that “it’s making my thinking straight you concentrate better on what you’re doing.” But he did admit, “The way I pitched (Saturday), I needed it. I’m glad I pitched good.
“I’m glad I could come back and pitch. That’s really important, because we’re in competition. I don’t want to lose any starts.”
It’s nice to see Freddy Garcia pitching well after getting hit in the hand by a comebacker a couple weeks ago. The Yankees may not have 16 aces, but Freddy and Phil have so far shown they could be in the starting rotation of almost any team outside of New England.
Friday, March 23, 2012
TGS NY: Not all “doom and gloom” for Joba
* “I think it is too soon to be speaking in total doom and gloom terms,” Bell said.
* “I think the window is still open, it is going to be a matter of how he heals,” Bell said. She thought September or August was possible.
* A lot will depend on when after the ankle bone heals in six-to-eight weeks, how much range of motion he will have.
* The fact that he is a pitcher and not a hitter could help. Kendry Morales took two years to comeback from the injury. Rounding the bases were the toughest thing to return from.
USA Today: Joba Chamberlain dislocates ankle playing on trampoline
Chamberlain, who was already working his way back from Tommy John elbow surgery at Yankees camp, suffered the injury at what general manager Brian Cashman explained was a “kid’s center with athletic activities featuring trampolines,” according to the YES Network’s Jack Curry. Chamberlain had surgery Thursday night for what was described as an “open dislocation” and will be hospitalized for several days.
Who will pitch the sixth?
NY Times: Garcia Prefers to Stay With Yankees, but Would Consider Trade
“I want to pitch, man,” he said. “Be it here or somewhere. I hope it’s here.”
Garcia stressed that he had not asked for a trade and had no immediate plans to do so. But if the Yankees come to him with a proposal, he said, he is certainly willing to think it over.
“I am always open,” he said. “I’d like to listen to what they say. But it’s not up to me. I have to wait until next week and see what they want to do. I cannot start talking about it if nothing has happened yet.”
Seems to me that Garcia’s handling this about as well as could be expected. I haven’t seen any evidence that he’s complaining, just speculation that he would be.
Pettitte also said that when he arrived Tuesday, Garcia came up to him in the weight room and they had a nice chat about the situation.
“I like him,” Garcia said. “He just said, ‘We have to win.’ I said, ‘We’ll figure out something.’ ”
Garcia said that he was not upset when he first learned Pettitte was returning and that his reaction that day was misconstrued as frustration.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
NY Post: Yankees see ‘night and day’ improvment from Hughes
“Night and day,” manager Joe Girardi said, comparing this year’s Hughes to a year ago. “He looks like the guy we had two years ago ... with an improved changeup.”
Hughes hopes that’s enough to get him back to where he was when he won 18 games. His spring ERA is 2.02 after he gave up two runs — when Matt Joyce launched a cutter over the center-field fence in the second — over five innings in a 5-2 Yankees win.
“There’s always a need for good pitching and as long as I go out and pitch well and am one of those guys, there’s gonna be a spot,” Hughes said. “Andy Pettitte [coming back], I don’t think about that. Six starters for five spots, I don’t think about that.”
That’s easier this year than last, when it appeared his arm was about to fall off. And while his velocity still hasn’t returned to the pre-2011 levels, he did hit 93 mph and also featured an effective changeup, which was consistently 10 mph slower than his fastball.
“I really hadn’t gotten a chance to throw as many changeups as I wanted to,” Hughes said of this spring.
But yesterday, he finished off two of his three strikeouts with the pitch.
“I took a step forward today,” Hughes said. “I haven’t had a great feel of it, ever.”
Last year, Phil Hughes ranked in the bottom 5% in wOBA and bottom 8% in swing-and-miss percentage in two-strike counts. It’s too early to know whether his change is going to be an effective pitch in 2012. But if it is, maybe we won’t be such Negative Nancies when Phil gets to two strikes this year.
CBS Sports: Heyman: Pineda-Montero trade might be 1-sided, but maybe not the way you thought
While Pineda is struggling to prove he belongs in the Yankees rotation while tipping the scales at a surprising 20 pounds to start spring, Montero basically has been given an everday job as the No. 5 hitter in the Mariners’ mostly young lineup. He will catch games here or there in a three-catcher set where veteran Miguel Olivo will be the starter, but mostly, he’ll hit. “He’ll get a ton of at-bats,’’ Zduriencik promised.
The knock on Montero is that he can’t catch, and the Mariners shied away from the Cliff Lee trade two summers ago because they had a top scout or two suggesting he couldn’t do it. But now at least one of those scouts says he can, and Mariners people believe he will, if not immediately then eventually. “He’s an intelligent kid, but it just takes time at that position to adjust,’’ Zduriencik said. “So far I’m pleased.’’
Struggling to prove he belongs in the rotation, eh? I think what Heyman’s doing here is commonly referred to as “trolling.”
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Looking Ahead to 2012 - Hiroki Kuroda
The Yankees tried to trade for Hiroki Kuroda last season, but he invoked his no-trade clause and wound up staying with the Dodgers all year. He became a free agent after the season at which point the Yankees snapped him up.
One thing I find interesting about Kuroda is that he was able to maintain more effectiveness than the average Japanese starter upon the transition to MLB. For comparison’s sake, here are three stat lines. The first is the average of his last three years in Japan, the second line is what that three-year average would have translated like to MLB if Kuroda would have done what the average Japanese starter had done (using the same adjustments that I made in this post about Yu Darvish), and the last is his actual MLB average performance.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Kuroda - Japan | 175 | 160 | 62 | 56 | 15 | 32 | 131 | 3.17 | 2.89 | 3.13 |
| Kuroda - Translated | 175 | 189 | 92 | 84 | 22 | 39 | 107 | 4.76 | 4.34 | 4.07 |
| Kuroda - MLB | 175 | 167 | 77 | 67 | 16 | 41 | 131 | 3.97 | 3.45 | 3.39 |
Kuroda has been able to make a much better transition than the typical Japanese league starter, primarily by maintaining his HR rate and strikeout rate. I think it helps that Kuroda has better than average stuff (a fastball that averages about 92 mph) in addition to a cutter, sinker, splitter, slider and curve. His raw numbers in MLB are boosted by his park and league with the Dodgers and will probably suffer a bit as he moves to the Yankees, but he still looks like a guy who’ll be solid part of one of the deepest rotations in baseball.
2011
Kuroda had the best ERA of his MLB career in 2011 (3.07), but it came with the worst FIP (3.78). In his career he’s been able to suppress BABIP slightly (.282 vs. .304 league average) which is why his career ERA (3.45) is a bit better than his career FIP(3.55).
2012 Projections
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 182 | 194 | 93 | 81 | 21 | 45 | 129 | 4.57 | 4.01 | 3.92 | 31 | 3.1 |
| davenport | 150 | 153 | 79 | 78 | 17 | 36 | 96 | 4.73 | 4.67 | 3.99 | 23 | 2.3 |
| marcel | 181 | 175 | 78 | 69 | 19 | 48 | 141 | 3.89 | 3.44 | 3.69 | 37 | 3.7 |
| oliver | 182 | 182 | 86 | 76 | 20 | 44 | 137 | 4.25 | 3.76 | 3.73 | 34 | 3.4 |
| pecota | 186 | 198 | 99 | 88 | 23 | 48 | 128 | 4.79 | 4.24 | 4.09 | 27 | 2.7 |
| steamer | 184 | 188 | 95 | 84 | 21 | 45 | 127 | 4.67 | 4.13 | 3.92 | 22 | 2.2 |
| zips | 156 | 168 | 80 | 75 | 22 | 40 | 111 | 4.62 | 4.33 | 4.28 | 20 | 2.0 |
| average | 174 | 180 | 87 | 79 | 21 | 44 | 124 | 4.50 | 4.08 | 3.95 | 28 | 2.8 |
| 2011 | 202 | 196 | 77 | 69 | 24 | 49 | 161 | 3.43 | 3.07 | 3.75 | 56 | 5.6 |
| LgAvg | 202 | 204 | 103 | 94 | 23 | 64 | 148 | 4.60 | 4.21 | 4.21 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average as frames of reference. League average is based on role (starters vs. relievers), and is not adjusted for park so unlike with hitters mentally adjust that down a bit. In the specific case of Kuroda, comparing his performance to the 2011 AL average isn’t particularly meaningful, but I left it in anyway.
Marcel doesn’t adjust for league, so it’s overrating Kuroda a bit. Other than that there’s a bit of a range in the projections, with Oliver and CAIRO at the more positive end and with ZiPS and Steamer a bit less sanguine. It’s worth noting that even the worst projection of 2.0 WAR makes Kuroda effectively worth his contract.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 201 | 198 | 91 | 80 | 18 | 42 | 154 | 4.10 | 3.57 | 3.30 | 44 | 4.4 |
| 65% | 191 | 196 | 92 | 81 | 20 | 44 | 141 | 4.33 | 3.79 | 3.57 | 37 | 3.7 |
| Baseline | 182 | 194 | 93 | 81 | 21 | 45 | 129 | 4.57 | 4.01 | 3.85 | 31 | 3.1 |
| 35% | 164 | 181 | 88 | 77 | 21 | 44 | 111 | 4.81 | 4.24 | 4.12 | 23 | 2.3 |
| 20% | 146 | 166 | 82 | 72 | 21 | 42 | 94 | 5.05 | 4.46 | 4.39 | 17 | 1.7 |
Kuroda’s not young, and I do think the league switch will be a tough one for him at times, so the baseline is about the upper end of what I’m expecting. I don’t see him being much worse than the 35% forecast though, and that’s still not an awful one.
In an ideal world, or at least in my convoluted ideal world, Kuroda will be the Yankees’ third or fourth starter this year. It’s not unreasonable to hope that one or two of Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova or Phil Hughes outpitches him even while he remains reasonably effective. I suppose Andy Pettitte could also end up ahead of him at some point.
Even if that doesn’t happen, you could do worse than having Kuroda as your #2 starter in a postseason series.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
NYDN: Girardi Throws Down the Gauntlet
For Michael Pineda, Phil Hughes, Freddy Garcia and Ivan Nova, Pettitte’s arrival will be a wakeup call.
That’s what Joe Girardi is hoping for anyway. He’s looking for Pettitte’s return to inspire the rest of his staff.
“If you don’t want somebody to take your job, pitch that way; it’s really simple,” Girardi said. “Let’s say the job was given to you and you were struggling; they’re going to look for someone to give the job to. You have to produce. That’s the world we live in in New York. It’s not like, ‘You’re this guy and we’re going to give you 20 starts no mater what happens.’ We don’t live in that world here.”
Is that really ‘the Gauntlet?’
Monday, March 19, 2012
Looking Ahead to 2012 - CC Sabathia
I haven’t gone through the rest of the bench but I’m going to wait until we have an idea of who will be on it on Opening Day. So it’s time to move on to the pitching projections. We’ll start with the ace of the staff, CC Sabathia.
2011
Sabathia had his best season as a Yankee in 2011. He put up an ERA+ of 147 which was better than his 137 and 136 marks in 2009 and 2010 respectively. Despite that, his season felt a bit disappointing because of how it finished. The turning point appears to have been his July 26 start against Seattle. Sabathia was dominating the Mariners through six innings. He had retired all 18 batters he faced and struck out 11 of them. There was a short rain delay, and CC returned to the mound to strike out Ichiro!
Unfortunately, Brendan Ryan then singled to break up the perfecto. CC struck out the next two hitters to finish off the seventh but he walked the first three hitters to start the eighth. He managed to get out of it with allowing just one run and some kid named Rivera closed it out.
So why do I think that game was some kind of turning point?
| dates | ip | bf | h | hr | bb | k | ra | era | fip | xfip |
| 3/31-7/26 | 169 | 686 | 143 | 6 | 45 | 156 | 2.93 | 2.56 | 2.48 | 3.37 |
| 8/1-9/21 | 61 | 269 | 80 | 9 | 14 | 68 | 4.40 | 4.26 | 3.45 | 2.70 |
| Dates | fb% | gb% | ld% | bb/bf | k/bf | babip | hr/fb |
| 3/31-7/26 | 30.4% | 48.2% | 21.4% | 6.6% | 22.7% | .293 | 4.2% |
| 8/1-9/21 | 28.4% | 43.8% | 27.8% | 5.2% | 25.3% | .425 | 18.0% |
bf: batters faced
fip: Fielding independent pitching
xfip: Expected fip (uses league average hr/fb rate instead of actual hr)
fb% Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
gb% Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
ld% Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
bb/bf: walks per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
babip: batting average on balls in play
I don’t like to attribute all babip fluctuations to luck, but the truth is Sabathia’s peripherals were arguably better over the last two months of the season. It just didn’t translate to his results.
In ALDS Game 1 vs. Detroit CC looked overpowering, better than Justin Verlander, but then the rains came again and he was out after two innings. He took the hill again for Game 3 but wasn’t good, and he made a final appearance in relief in Game 5 and gave up the run that ended up being the difference in the series.
CC had an opt-out in his contract after the season and there was some legitimate concern that he’d opt out, but the Yankees were able to keep him in the fold by adding a year to his contract at a salary that bumped him back up to being the highest-paid pitcher in baseball. Given the overall body of work over his first three seasons I don’t think many Yankee fans are upset about having him around for another year.
2012 Projections
Sabathia’s the clear #1 starter on the Yankees, and probably their most valuable player right now. Here are his projections for 2012.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 227 | 218 | 90 | 82 | 19 | 64 | 201 | 3.57 | 3.24 | 3.23 | 63 | 6.3 |
| davenport | 210 | 192 | 90 | 89 | 18 | 60 | 172 | 3.86 | 3.81 | 3.44 | 52 | 5.2 |
| marcel | 203 | 189 | 80 | 73 | 16 | 59 | 179 | 3.55 | 3.24 | 3.24 | 50 | 5.0 |
| oliver | 233 | 225 | 101 | 92 | 18 | 64 | 197 | 3.88 | 3.54 | 3.24 | 49 | 4.9 |
| pecota | 217 | 204 | 85 | 77 | 19 | 52 | 195 | 3.52 | 3.21 | 3.16 | 57 | 5.7 |
| steamer | 219 | 205 | 96 | 88 | 21 | 68 | 196 | 3.96 | 3.61 | 3.49 | 44 | 4.4 |
| zips | 218 | 211 | 92 | 86 | 19 | 63 | 189 | 3.80 | 3.55 | 3.36 | 47 | 4.7 |
| average | 218 | 206 | 90 | 84 | 19 | 61 | 190 | 3.73 | 3.46 | 3.31 | 52 | 5.2 |
| 2011 | 237 | 230 | 87 | 79 | 17 | 61 | 230 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.85 | 66 | 6.6 |
| LgAvg | 237 | 239 | 121 | 111 | 27 | 75 | 174 | 4.60 | 4.21 | 4.21 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average as frames of reference. League average is based on role (starters vs. relievers), and is not adjusted for park so unlike with hitters mentally adjust that down a bit.
For pitchers, I’m using the following projections.
CAIRO, my own projection system.
Clay Davenport, formerly of Baseball Prospectus’s projections
An unofficial version of Tangotiger’s Marcel, which were run using code provided by Jeff Sackmann.
Oliver, from the Hardball Times Forecasts.
PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus.
ZiPS, courtesy of Dan Szymborski at Baseball Think Factory.
A new addition for the pitchers is Steamer. The hitter projections weren’t ready when I started this so I didn’t include them, but according to this article Steamer was the only thing that prevented CAIRO from being the best pitching projection system last year. Steamer is similar to Marcel, but incorporates velocity data as well and it seemed to help it leap to the top of the 2011 projections.
There appears to be two distinct sets of projections here.
CAIRO/Marcel/PECOTA: 3.54 RA, 3.23 ERA, 3.21 FIP
Davenport/Oliver/Steamer/ZiPS: 3.87 RA, 3.63 ERA, 3.38 FIP
I think the first group is closer to the truth.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 245 | 220 | 87 | 79 | 15 | 60 | 233 | 3.19 | 2.88 | 2.67 | 79 | 7.9 |
| 65% | 236 | 219 | 89 | 80 | 17 | 62 | 217 | 3.38 | 3.06 | 2.90 | 71 | 7.1 |
| Baseline | 227 | 218 | 90 | 82 | 19 | 64 | 201 | 3.57 | 3.24 | 3.14 | 63 | 6.3 |
| 35% | 204 | 203 | 85 | 78 | 19 | 61 | 175 | 3.76 | 3.42 | 3.37 | 53 | 5.3 |
| 20% | 182 | 186 | 80 | 73 | 18 | 57 | 150 | 3.95 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 43 | 4.3 |
Sign me up for that 80% forecast.
The Yankees rotation is probably the deepest it’s been in years. That being said, there’s CC and there’s everyone else. I am pretty sure the group of Hiroki Kuroda, Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes and Andy Pettitte will project similarly to each other, with Freddy Garcia a bit behind them. But none of them can replace Sabathia. CC lost some weight this offseason to help reduce the strain on his knees. Of course he did that last year too but seemed to gain it all back by year-end.
Let’s hope he can stay healthy and give the Yankees another great year.
Sunday, March 18, 2012
WaPo: Boswell: Phillies’ toughest opponent might be Father Time
Baseball must despise a sure thing. The Phils are still a sane pick to be in the World Series. But they also might not even win their own division. With a speed that is chilling, the gap between the Phils and the rest of the NL East — much less all of baseball — has shrunk to the point where this season, or very soon, the young, rising Braves, Nationals and Marlins, or all three of them, may be on the Phils’ aging heels.
I want to take a trip down memory lane.
“Texas probably finished second to be honest with you. Just as far as the quality of the team and the chance to win a World Series ring, I think they’re a better team. That’s just my opinion. The Yankees can do anything at any moment to improve and they’re not afraid to go do things. That was part of the decision making process too,
Durp.
but I felt like with what the Red Sox had done and it seems like some of the Yankee guys are getting older, but I liked the Rangers.”
Double durp.
If I sum up age times PA and age times batters faced divided by PA + BF for all teams using my current depth charts for 2012, here’s the average age by team.
PHI: 30.5
NYA: 30.1
STL: 29.3
LAA: 28.9
BOS: 28.6
MIN: 28.6
OAK: 28.4
COL: 28.3
LAD: 28.2
MIL: 28.1
CHN: 28.1
PIT: 27.9
TEX: 27.9
NYN: 27.9
SF: 27.7
MIA: 27.6
TB: 27.6
HOU: 27.5
CLE: 27.4
BAL: 27.4
CHA: 27.4
SEA: 27.2
SD: 27.1
ARI: 27.0
CIN: 27.0
DET: 27.0
WAS: 26.9
TOR: 26.6
ATL: 26.5
KC: 26.0
Triple durp.
Here are CAIRO’s up to the minute projections for each of the three teams that were in contention for Cliff Lee’s services.
NYA: 96-66
TEX: 93-69
PHI 91-71
Quadruple durp.
NY Post: Garcia seems upset Pettitte back with Yankees
Garcia, who unlike most of those around him in the clubhouse doesn’t have a history with Pettitte, was asked if he thought the signing was good for the team.
“I don’t know,” he said. “Ask the people. I guess.”
Garcia isn’t the only one who figures to be affected by Pettitte, but he was the only one who didn’t seem to welcome the addition to the fray.
Should we expect Freddy Garcia to be happy that he’s further down on the starting pitching depth chart now?
Friday, March 16, 2012
TGS NY: Derek Jeter out with calf injury
TAMPA, Fla.—New York Yankees captain Derek Jeter has an injured left calf that will keep him out of spring training until at least next week.
Jeter, who will turn 38 in June, missed nearly a month last season in his pursuit of 3,000 hits with an injury to his right calf.
“My alarm was he hurt his calf last year and even though it is the other calf, we are going to be smart about this,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “I told him, ‘Don’t even go outside today.’ I think he could hit or take BP, but just let it calm down.”
TGS NY: Sources: Andy Pettitte returning
TAMPA, Fla.—Left-hander Andy Pettitte is coming back to the New York Yankees.
Pettitte, who retired before last season, has agreed to a $2.5 million minor league deal and will work his way back into shape, baseball sources told ESPN The Magazine’s Buster Olney.
Pettitte started 21 games in 2010 for the Yankees, going 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA. He was 14-8 with a 4.16 ERA in 2009, his last full season.
My sources have procured an exclusive picture of Pettitte working his way back into shape.

Yeah, I used the same pic and joke last year. So what?
Pettitte can probably platoon with Andruw Jones at DH and provide more offense than Raul Ibanez.
Seriously though, I don’t get this. Isn’t starting pitching the last area of need for the Yankees? That being said, I’m happy to see how this works out. It can’t hurt, really.
Update: Pettitte’s CAIRO percentile forecasts added below:
| % | G | GS | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 25 | 25 | 10 | 7 | 152 | 145 | 64 | 57 | 12 | 43 | 2 | 121 | 3.76 | 3.38 | 3.28 | 39 | 3.9 |
| 65% | 23 | 23 | 9 | 7 | 140 | 139 | 63 | 57 | 13 | 43 | 3 | 106 | 4.09 | 3.69 | 3.64 | 31 | 3.1 |
| Baseline | 21 | 21 | 8 | 6 | 127 | 132 | 62 | 57 | 13 | 42 | 3 | 92 | 4.42 | 4.01 | 4.00 | 23 | 2.3 |
| 35% | 17 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 102 | 110 | 54 | 49 | 12 | 36 | 4 | 69 | 4.75 | 4.32 | 4.37 | 15 | 1.5 |
| 20% | 15 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 89 | 101 | 50 | 46 | 12 | 34 | 4 | 57 | 5.09 | 4.63 | 4.73 | 10 | 1.0 |
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs saved above replacement level using RA
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
NY Post: Sherman: Pitching hard to gauge based just on spring training
We just knew in the aftermath of Cliff Lee’s spurning and Andy Pettitte’s retirement that the Yankees were in real trouble. We wondered if Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia were closer to the Yankees’ rotation or their AARP cards. We viewed the battle among Colon, Garcia, Sergio Mitre and Ivan Nova for the final two spots in the rotation as, at best, a time filler until gifts arrived before the July 31 deadline.
Over in Red Sox camp, the big question was what to do with too much starting pitching. Boston was working to turn six — Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield — into five.
In Cardinals camp, ace Adam Wainwright already was lost for the season and so St. Louis’ chance of being champions had fallen from slim to “are we really still talking about the Cardinals winning it all?”
I figured it was better to read something like this than an article talking about how it’s too early to get concerned about Michael Pineda’s velocity while listing a bunch of reasons that we should be concerned about it.
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Looking Ahead to 2012 - Andruw Jones and Raul Ibanez
With the loss of Jesus Montero and with Russell Branyan not having made an appearance yet due to a back injury, the 2012 DH for the Yankees is probably going to be some combination of Andruw Jones, Raul Ibanez, and starters that are getting a half day of rest. No, it’s not quite as exciting as it would have been to watch Montero developing, but it is what it is.
2011
From 2007-2009 Jones hit .207/.304/.393 over 1228 PA and effectively appeared to be done as an MLB player. Over the last two seasons he’s hit .237/.347/.489 with 32 HRs in 550 PA and appears to have recovered some of that lost ability. Is that true though?
| split | pa% | pa | ab | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | k | avg | obp | slg | bb/pa | k/pa | babip |
| vs. LHP (2010-2011) | 45% | 248 | 212 | 58 | 10 | 0 | 16 | 33 | 3 | 58 | .274 | .379 | .547 | 13.3% | 23.4% | .304 |
| vs. RHP (2010-2011) | 55% | 302 | 256 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 16 | 41 | 3 | 77 | .207 | .321 | .441 | 13.6% | 25.5% | .224 |
| Total (2010-2011) | 550 | 468 | 111 | 20 | 1 | 32 | 74 | 6 | 135 | .237 | .347 | .489 | 13.5% | 24.5% | .261 | |
| vs. LHP (2007-2009) | 37% | 454 | 374 | 80 | 20 | 2 | 16 | 70 | 5 | 97 | .214 | .341 | .406 | 15.4% | 21.4% | .241 |
| vs. RHP (2007-2009) | 63% | 774 | 688 | 140 | 33 | 1 | 30 | 72 | 6 | 189 | .203 | .282 | .385 | 9.3% | 24.4% | .231 |
| Total (2007-2009) | 1228 | 1062 | 220 | 53 | 3 | 46 | 142 | 11 | 286 | .207 | .304 | .393 | 11.6% | 23.3% | .234 |
He’s walked and struck out a bit more over the last two seasons when compared to his 2007-2009 stretch, but other that the primary change appears to be in his deployment (a higher percentage of PA vs. LHP) and in his batting average on balls in play (BABIP of .261 vs. .234). It’s easy to forget now that the calls for Jones to be DFA’d last season were pretty frequent early on, as he hit .195.278/.356 through July 10. Jones surged after that and ended the year by hitting .291/.416/.612 over his final 125 PA.
Jones faced LHP in 79.7% of his 2011 PA, and that may help explain some of his better than expected performance. However, he did face a higher percentage of RHP over the second half of the year.
| split | pa% | pa | ab | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | k | avg | obp | slg | bb/pa | k/pa | babip |
| vs. LHP(through 7/10/2011) | 75% | 73 | 65 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 22 | .231 | .315 | .446 | 11.0% | 30.1% | .282 |
| vs. RHP(through 7/10/2011) | 25% | 24 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | .091 | .167 | .091 | 8.3% | 33.3% | .143 |
| Total (through 7/10/2011) | 97 | 87 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 30 | .195 | .278 | .356 | 10.3% | 30.9% | .245 | |
| vs. LHP(7/14/2011 on) | 58% | 73 | 61 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 17 | .344 | .452 | .639 | 13.7% | 23.3% | .425 |
| vs. RHP (7/14/2011 on) | 42% | 52 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 15 | .214 | .365 | .571 | 17.3% | 28.8% | .182 |
| Total (through 7/14/2011 on) | 125 | 103 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 19 | 3 | 32 | .291 | .416 | .612 | 15.2% | 25.6% | .339 |
The BABIP was low but he hit for good power against them.
Raul Ibanez did stuff last year too, but it was in a weaker league for a weaker team and I don’t really feel like getting into it.
Offensive Projections
Can some combination of Jones and Ibanez provide a useful primary DH? Here are Jones’s projections.
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAR |
| cairo | 315 | 271 | 38 | 60 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 41 | 4 | 1 | 37 | 76 | 8 | 3 | .221 | .318 | .413 | .321 | 37 | 76 | 3 |
| davenport | 353 | 308 | 41 | 74 | 15 | 1 | 18 | 41 | 3 | 1 | 42 | 81 | 9 | 3 | .240 | .337 | .471 | .351 | 49 | 89 | 7 |
| marcel | 344 | 297 | 41 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 16 | 45 | 6 | 2 | 40 | 78 | 9 | 3 | .236 | .328 | .451 | .338 | 45 | 85 | 7 |
| oliver | 369 | 319 | 46 | 74 | 15 | 1 | 17 | 51 | 4 | 2 | 45 | 86 | 9 | 3 | .232 | .331 | .445 | .338 | 47 | 83 | 7 |
| pecota | 414 | 362 | 48 | 80 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 48 | 5 | 2 | 48 | 102 | 11 | 4 | .220 | .317 | .410 | .321 | 48 | 75 | 3 |
| zips | 257 | 222 | 31 | 52 | 10 | 0 | 13 | 38 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 65 | 7 | 2 | .234 | .335 | .455 | .344 | 34 | 86 | 6 |
| average | 342 | 295 | 41 | 65 | 14 | 1 | 16 | 44 | 4 | 2 | 41 | 82 | 9 | 3 | .221 | .319 | .443 | .336 | 42 | 80 | 5 |
| 2011 | 222 | 190 | 27 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 62 | 3 | 3 | .247 | .356 | .495 | .368 | 33 | 97 | 9 |
| 2011 AL | 222 | 199 | 26 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 40 | 4 | 2 | .258 | .323 | .408 | .319 | 26 | 75 |
For more information about the projections above, you can read the first post in this series.
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average line for his 2011 PA as frames of reference. I haven’t adjusted league average for DNYS.
And for Ibanez.
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAR |
| cairo | 609 | 549 | 76 | 146 | 34 | 3 | 22 | 87 | 4 | 2 | 52 | 111 | 14 | 2 | .266 | .329 | .458 | .340 | 80 | 85 | 13 |
| davenport | |||||||||||||||||||||
| marcel | 551 | 497 | 66 | 126 | 29 | 3 | 19 | 74 | 4 | 1 | 45 | 105 | 13 | 2 | .254 | .314 | .439 | .325 | 67 | 79 | 7 |
| oliver | 577 | 523 | 63 | 128 | 28 | 2 | 17 | 69 | 3 | 1 | 46 | 104 | 15 | 1 | .245 | .303 | .403 | .308 | 63 | 70 | 0 |
| pecota | 552 | 507 | 66 | 126 | 28 | 2 | 17 | 66 | 2 | 1 | 43 | 109 | 13 | 2 | .249 | .310 | .413 | .317 | 62 | 73 | 2 |
| zips | 540 | 494 | 62 | 125 | 28 | 2 | 18 | 83 | 3 | 1 | 40 | 98 | 12 | 1 | .253 | .307 | .427 | .318 | 63 | 76 | 4 |
| average | 566 | 510 | 71 | 136 | 29 | 2 | 19 | 76 | 3 | 1 | 45 | 105 | 13 | 2 | .266 | .323 | .431 | .322 | 70 | 81 | 9 |
| 2011 | 575 | 535 | 65 | 131 | 31 | 1 | 20 | 84 | 2 | 0 | 33 | 106 | 13 | 2 | .245 | .289 | .419 | .305 | 63 | 71 | 0 |
| 2011 AL | 575 | 516 | 67 | 133 | 27 | 3 | 15 | 64 | 11 | 4 | 46 | 104 | 11 | 5 | .258 | .323 | .408 | .319 | 66 | 75 |
I’ll just say I think CAIRO is way, way off on Ibanez. BRAR for both players are being calculated as DHs. If they are able to play the OF they would pick a bit more relative value, although Ibanez surely gives that all away with his defense.
CAIRO Percentiles Forecast - Jones
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAR |
| 80% | 346 | 298 | 48 | 75 | 18 | 2 | 18 | 52 | 6 | 0 | 48 | 74 | 7 | 5 | .250 | .368 | .500 | .378 | 55 | 103 | 17 |
| 65% | 330 | 285 | 43 | 67 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 46 | 5 | 1 | 42 | 76 | 6 | 4 | .236 | .343 | .456 | .350 | 46 | 90 | 10 |
| Baseline | 315 | 271 | 38 | 60 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 41 | 4 | 1 | 37 | 76 | 8 | 3 | .221 | .318 | .413 | .321 | 37 | 76 | 3 |
| 35% | 283 | 244 | 31 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 34 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 73 | 8 | 3 | .207 | .299 | .370 | .296 | 28 | 64 | -3 |
| 20% | 252 | 217 | 25 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 68 | 9 | 4 | .193 | .280 | .326 | .271 | 20 | 51 | -8 |
Jones had knee surgery in the offseason and came into camp in great shape (just like every other player but Phil Hughes circa 2011). I think his baseline forecast is a bit pessimistic and wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the 65% area. I do think it’s wishful thinking to think he’s going to suddenly re-establish himself as an everyday player after five straight seasons of not being one, but I don’t think anyone here really thinks that.
CAIRO Percentiles Forecast - Ibanez
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAR |
| 80% | 670 | 604 | 93 | 174 | 44 | 5 | 29 | 106 | 6 | 0 | 65 | 110 | 12 | 4 | .288 | .363 | .523 | .381 | 108 | 105 | 35 |
| 65% | 639 | 577 | 84 | 160 | 39 | 4 | 25 | 96 | 5 | 1 | 58 | 111 | 11 | 3 | .277 | .346 | .490 | .361 | 94 | 95 | 24 |
| Baseline | 609 | 549 | 76 | 146 | 34 | 3 | 22 | 87 | 4 | 2 | 52 | 111 | 14 | 2 | .266 | .329 | .458 | .340 | 80 | 85 | 13 |
| 35% | 548 | 494 | 65 | 126 | 28 | 2 | 17 | 74 | 3 | 2 | 43 | 104 | 14 | 3 | .255 | .314 | .426 | .321 | 64 | 76 | 4 |
| 20% | 487 | 439 | 54 | 107 | 23 | 1 | 14 | 62 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 97 | 14 | 3 | .244 | .300 | .394 | .302 | 50 | 67 | -3 |
I’ll go the opposite direction here. I think Ibanez’s baseline projection is way optimistic. I think his 35% projection is optimistic too. I would be shocked if he’s a Yankee at the All Star Break.
Neither guy is probably worthy of being the full-time DH. However, a platoon of the two would look something like this.
| split | pa | ab | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | so | hbp | gdp | avg | obp | slg | woba | br/650 |
| Jones vs. LHP | 166 | 139 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 39 | 1 | 4 | .234 | .352 | .413 | .343 | 90 |
| Ibanez vs. RHP | 447 | 401 | 109 | 26 | 2 | 18 | 41 | 73 | 1 | 11 | .272 | .336 | .470 | .348 | 90 |
| Overall | 612 | 540 | 142 | 33 | 2 | 23 | 65 | 112 | 2 | 15 | .263 | .341 | .462 | .347 | 90 |
That’s probably worth about a win over a replacement level DH.
Base Running
Both players are physically capable of running the bases.
Defense - Jones
| pos | Inn | DRS | UZR | TZ | ZR | avg | |
| LF | 161 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| CF | 161 | 1 | 2 | -4 | -1 | 0 | |
| RF | 161 | 2 | 2 | -4 | -1 | 0 | |
| Total | 483 | 3 | 5 | -8 | -2 | 1 |
DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating
Jones can still probably play average defense in the corners. He can probably play some CF too, although he should be behind Brett Gardner on the depth chart.
Defense - Ibanez
| pos | Inn | DRS | UZR | TZ | ZR | avg | |
| LF | 1221 | -8 | -9 | -6 | -2 | -6 |
I thought Ibanez would show up as -20 or so, so this surprises me some. I don’t think he’s a good OF, but hopefully he won’t be needed much out there.
Value - Jones
| Projection | RAA | Rep | Pos | RAR | BRR | Def | WAR |
| cairo | 1 | 10 | -8 | 3 | -1.5 | 1 | 0.2 |
| marcel | 5 | 11 | -9 | 7 | -1.5 | 1 | 0.6 |
| oliver | 5 | 12 | -9 | 7 | -1.5 | 1 | 0.6 |
| pecota | 0 | 13 | -10 | 3 | -1.5 | 1 | 0.2 |
| zips | 4 | 8 | -6 | 6 | -1.5 | 1 | 0.5 |
| average | 2 | 11 | -9 | 5 | -1.5 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2011 | 8 | 7 | -6 | 9 | -2.3 | 3 | 1.0 |
Rep: Replacement level adjustment (22 runs per 700 PA pro-rated to projected PA)
Pos: Position-adjustment
RAR: Runs above replacement (Rep + Pos)
BRR: Base running runs (does not include SB)
Def: Projected runs saved defensively
WAR: Wins above replacement (RAR + BRR + Def) divided by 10
Offense replacement level is compared to DH, so give him a few more runs depending on how much outfield he plays.
Value - Ibanez
| Projection | RAA | Rep | Pos | RAR | BRR | Def | WAR |
| cairo | 10 | 19 | -15 | 13 | -0.4 | 0 | 1.3 |
| marcel | 3 | 17 | -14 | 7 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.7 |
| oliver | -4 | 18 | -14 | 0 | -0.4 | 0 | -0.1 |
| pecota | -1 | 17 | -14 | 2 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.2 |
| zips | 1 | 17 | -14 | 4 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.4 |
| average | 5 | 18 | -14 | 9 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.8 |
| 2011 | -4 | 18 | -14 | 0 | -0.6 | 3 | 0.2 |
Again I’ll mention that I think CAIRO is insane with its Ibanez projection. Thankfully the Yankees don’t have that much invested in him, and if he does start to drag them down he can be released fairly easily. I think Russell Branyan would out-produce Ibanez vs. RHP, but I don’t know how long he’ll be in the organization if he doesn’t break camp with the team.
DH doesn’t seem like it’s going to be much of an asset this year, and it’s certainly not going to be as enjoyable as it would have been with Montero around. And for some reason my hands want to type Iganez every time I try to type Ibanez, which makes these posts take several seconds longer to write. Despite all that, it could be worse.
We could be watching pitchers “hit.”
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
10 Years of YES: Jeter’s dive
10 Years of YES remembers “one of the greatest games you’ll ever see” on the YES Network, and Derek Jeter’ memorable dive into the stands.
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It’s always fun to look back at this play, because I think that the July 1, 2004 game is one of the best regular season games I’ve ever seen. Jeter’s play was a good one, perhaps overrated a bit due to context, but I think A-Rod’s double play in the 11th was the play of the game, and of course we had Miguel Cairo’s two-out clutch double that scored Ruben Sierra from first to tie the game in the bottom of the 13th.
You also had Gary Sheffield moved to 3B for the first time in 11 years, You had Brad Halsey matching Pedro Martinez pitch for pitch, you had a rare scoreless appearance by Felix “The Run Fairy™” Heredia, and a game-winning hit from John Flaherty who was pinch-hitting for Tanyon Sturtze and was the last player on the bench. Just a fun game all around.
WSJ: Triple-A Scranton Yankees will wander without home
The Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees will play all 144 games of their International League season on the road, forced out of PNC Field because of a stadium renovation. Instead, they’ll have 37 “home” games in Rochester, N.Y., with the rest scattered about in Batavia, Buffalo and Syracuse, N.Y., along with Allentown, Pa., and Pawtucket, R.I.
They’re even adopting a temporary name, the Empire State Yankees. Might as well call them the Boys of Somewhere.
“Every baseball team has a home base. It’s going to be a little weird just not having one,” said 27-year-old infielder Kevin Russo, embarking on his fourth season with the team. “Friends, family, girlfriend, they all don’t really understand. Even I don’t understand it.”
I wonder how this situation might impact the players. With guys like Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances likely on the team I suppose it gives Yankee fans scattered around New York State more chances to see them.
Monday, March 12, 2012
FoxSports: Jeter, Rivera inseparable? Only seems so
Jeter and Rivera have starred in New York for so long that it’s easy to forget they were prospects once, too. Between now and Opening Day, promising players in 30 camps will be summoned to managers’ offices and told that they must go back to the minor leagues.
Jeter and Rivera received the same news after the Yankees’ 10-7 victory over the Seattle Mariners on June 11, 1995. And they handled it with the traits — professionalism and class — that have defined their careers ever since.
“That wasn’t a happy day for us,” Rivera recalled Sunday before pitching a 1-2-3 fourth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies in his spring debut. “It was tough. When you get sent down, you think about it. Your mind starts wandering. We were down. I was down. But that went away after we got where we were supposed to go, with Columbus, and started working. I needed to get my shoulder right. He worked on his stuff. A few weeks later, I was up again.
“Back then, if you had to work on something, The Boss would send you down in a heartbeat. He didn’t mess around.”














