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Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.

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Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Yankees Make a Bunch of Moves, Some of Which Don’t Make Sense

Sometimes no activity is better than bad activity. Yanks add catcher Stewart, option Cervelli

TAMPA, Fla.—The Yankees completed a deal on Wednesday to address their organizational catching depth, acquiring veteran Chris Stewart from the Giants in exchange for right-hander George Kontos.

Because Stewart is out of Minor League options, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said that the 30-year-old right-handed hitter will be on the Opening Day roster as the backup catcher, with a stunned Francisco Cervelli being optioned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Kontos was behind a lot pitchers on the Yankees’ depth chart so I can see why he’d be expendable.  I just don’t see how adding a backup catcher who’s worse than the backup catcher that they already had makes the team better.

CAIRO has Cervelli projected to hit .264/.332/.373 with a wOBA of .315. It projects Stewart to hit .233/.311/.343 with a wOBA of .295.  Over 250 PA Cervelli would project to be worth about 27 runs and Stewart would project to be worth 23.  I suppose the defensive difference between the two could make them effectively equivalent, but it still strikes me as a move that accomplishes nothing and cost the team some depth.

MLB Trade Rumors: Yankees Sign Ramon Ortiz

The Yankees signed right-hander Ramon Ortiz, Jon Heyman of tweets. It’s a minor league deal, Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger tweets. The Giants recently released the 39-year-old Praver/Shapiro client.

Whatever.  Shouldn’t have any significance.

Lohud: As deadline passes, Yankees roster is finalized

David Phelps named long reliever

I’d be more annoyed about having Phelps rotting in the bullpen if I thought it was a long-term thing, but it shouldn’t be.  At some point Andy Pettitte or Michael Pineda should take that roster spot and Phelps can return to starting in AAA.

Clay Rapada named second lefty

It’s official.

Chris Stewart named backup catcher

See above.

Justin Maxwell designated for assignment

Maxwell had a pretty good spring, but I don’t think he had much use on this team. 

Bill Hall given his release

I figured Hall was a longshot to make the team, and Eduardo Nunez’s hot hitting cemented that. 

--Posted at 5:55 pm by SG / 13 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

The Star-Ledger: Yankees’ Manny Banuelos among spring-training invitees again

Yankees pitching prospect Manny Banuelos will be back at spring training this season.

The heralded 20-year-old was one of 14 invitees the team announced today.

The Yankees also officially announced they have signed 13 players to minor-league contracts, including Russell Branyan, Manny Delcarmen, Bill Hall, Hideki Okajima and Dewayne Russell.

--Posted at 11:14 pm by Jonathan / 49 Comments | - (0)

NY Mag: Better Know a Yankee: Bill Hall (with Russell Branyan update)

Anyway, it’s a minor deal — non-guaranteed, with a chance to reach $600,000 if he makes the team — that will hinge mostly on whether the Yankees bring back Eric Chavez. Hall, as Joe Sheehan pointed out in his invaluable newsletter yesterday, is basically a cheaper version of Chone Figgins, a player he had recommended for the Yankees earlier. (He’d also, intriguingly, suggested seeing whether the White Sox would do an Adam Dunn–A.J. Burnett swap, straight up.) Hall will probably make the team, but it’s too early to tell. Also, pitchers and catchers report in eleven days.

I don’t see the sense in bringing back Chavez at this point, although a Hall/Chavez platoon at 3B in the event of Alex Rodriguez missing some time is probably better than just having Hall.

Player Bats PA Projected wOBA Vs L Vs R lRV rRV RV
Bill Hall R 300 .293 .307 .287 10 16 26
Player Bats PA Projected wOBA Vs L Vs R lRV rRV RV
Bill Hall R 100 .293 .307 .287 10 0 10
Eric Chavez L 200 .295 .264 .308 0 20 18
Total 300 10 20 28


Vs L: Regressed projected wOBA vs. LHP.
Vs R: Regressed projected wOBA vs. RHP.
lRV: Run value vs. LHP
rRV: Run value vs. RHP
RV: Total run value

The difference between CAIRO’s platoon split wOBA projections in 300 PA of Hall vs. a 200 PA Chavez/100 PA Hall platoon is two runs. 

On the other hand, the difference between 200 PA of Chavez vs. RHP and some of the remaining potential DH candidates looks like this.

Player Bats PA Projected wOBA Vs L Vs R RAC
Russell Branyan L 200 .353 .324 .360 9
Raul Ibanez L 200 .350 .324 .359 9
J.D. Drew L 200 .345 .315 .355 8
Johnny Damon L 200 .340 .324 .346 7
Hideki Matsui L 200 .337 .323 .343 6
Eric Chavez L 200 .295 .264 .308 0

RAC: Runs above Chavez over 200 PA vs. RHP.

CAIRO may be bullish on Ibanez considering how bad his 2011 was and given his age,  but it seems to me the Yankees would be better off signing any one of the people on this list ahead of Chavez to DH.  I wouldn’t be opposed to an NRI invite for Chavez in case Hall doesn’t make the team out of spring training, but I’d be surprised if Chavez would accept that if he’s considering retirement.

I get the feeling the Yankees will wind up with Ibanez as their LH DH although Russell Branyan seems like the best pure hitting candidate.  Damon’s probably wants a full-time job and more money than the Yankees are willing to spend, and the other candidates have issues with age and health.

Update:Apparently the Yankees agree with me on Branyan after all.

NY Post: Yankees sign Branyan to minor league deal

The Yankees agreed to sign Russell Branyan to a minor league deal with an invitation to major league spring training Wednesday.

The move does not impact the team’s chances of adding another lefty bat and they remain in the hunt for Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Raul Ibanez.

But Branyan’s presence could make things more difficult for Eric Chavez, since the 36-year-old can play both corner infield positions.

I guess that’s technically true, although Branyan played 276 innings at 3B in 2008 and has played 3 innings there since.

Update Part Deux: Branyan’s CAIRO percentile forecasts

80% 407 355 53 96 23 1 26 62 4 0 55 99 3 6 .271 .387 .568 .412 75 22
65% 373 325 45 84 19 1 22 53 3 0 47 96 4 4 .257 .363 .523 .383 61 12
Baseline 339 296 38 72 16 0 18 45 2 0 40 92 5 3 .243 .338 .479 .353 48 4
35% 305 266 32 61 12 0 14 38 1 1 33 87 5 2 .228 .314 .434 .324 37 -3
20% 271 237 26 51 9 0 11 31 1 1 27 81 5 1 .214 .289 .389 .295 27 -8

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

% wOBA vs L wOBA vs R
80% .377 .420
65% .350 .390
Baseline .324 .360
35% .297 .331
20% .271 .301

I approve.

--Posted at 12:26 pm by SG / 28 Comments | - (0)

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