Friday, May 11, 2012
Yankees.com: Ibanez’s blast helps Yankees solve Felix
One night after the Bombers knocked around the Rays’ David Price, Raul Ibanez’s three-run homer helped power an 11-hit assault on Felix Hernandez as the Yankees toppled the Mariners, 6-2, on Friday at Yankee Stadium.
“I think that things are definitely coming around offensively; guys are swinging the bats well,” said Ibanez, whose sixth-inning blast off Hernandez put New York in command. “We’ve been having some good swings together as a group.”
NJ.com: Carig: Brett Gardner to miss at least two more weeks, Yankees say
NEW YORK — Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner will miss at least two more weeks after an MRI exam yesterday revealed he has reinjured his right elbow.
“We’re going to be without Gardy for a while here,” manager Joe Girardi said after the Yankees beat the Rays, 5-3 Thursday. “It’s very unfortunate. He swung the bat well in Triple-A, but somehow he irritated that muscle again.”
Even if you think Gardner’s defense is overrated, there’s no question the Yankees miss him.
| Player | PA | AB | Hits | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | HBP | K | GDP | BA | OBA | Slug% | woba | br |
| Raul Ibanez | 31 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.286 | 0.355 | 0.464 | .358 | 4 |
| Andruw Jones | 25 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.143 | 0.28 | 0.333 | .279 | 2 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | .090 | 0 |
| Jayson Nix | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | -1 |
| DeWayne Wise | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 |
| Total | 76 | 69 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 19 | 2 | .174 | .250 | .304 | .249 | 5 |
| Gardner | 76 | 65 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 1 | .262 | .352 | .371 | .324 | 9 |
woba: Weighted on-base average
br: linear weights batting runs
That’s what the Yankees have gotten out of LF since Gardner went down on April 17 compared to his baseline CAIRO projection pro-rated to the same # of PA. I’m not even including baserunning or SB in the BR, and this ignores defense as well. Purely in the batter’s box the Yankees have lost close to half a win. I wouldn’t be surprised if by the time he’s back the Yankees will have lost a full win if you factor in everything.
That being said, I’m not sure a trade is imminent or makes much sense. It might make sense if the Yankees are considering a youngish OF who can take over should they let Nick Swisher walk at the end of the year, but the cost for that is likely to be pretty steep and it’s probably not a huge upgrade for 2012.
Tuesday, May 8, 2012
Yankees.com: Ibanez’s homers return Nova to win column
Nova turned in arguably his best outing of the season during a rainy evening at Yankee Stadium, striking out eight and leading the Yankees to a 5-3 win over the Rays that saw former setup man David Robertson record his first save since Mariano Rivera sustained a season-ending right knee injury last week in Kansas City.
Raul Ibanez homered twice, including a long two-run blast, and Curtis Granderson belted a solo shot, his 10th of the year, to provide the offense as the Yankees toppled James Shields, posting their third victory in four games.
This game felt like a playoff game to me, and it was a tight one with a lot of tension and drama. Nova was very good except for the continued HR issue he’s been having this year, and he reward Joe Girardi’s faith by pitching out of a big jam to end the 7th in what may have been the key point in the game.
Robertson got his first save of the year, hopefully the first of many, although it took loading the bases and facing Carlos Pena to get it. I’m not worried about Robertson at all, but I do have concerns about the bridge to him.
And I have to say that I’m happy to see Ibanez exceeding my admittedly low expectations for him. He seems like a good guy and I hope he can continue to do so.
But mostly it was nice to finally beat the Rays after losing seven straight to them going back to last year, although some of those losses felt like wins.
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Yankees.com: CC sharp as Yankees take series from Tigers
NEW YORK—CC Sabathia turned in his sharpest outing of the young season, Curtis Granderson homered and drove in a pair of runs and the Yankees defeated the Tigers, 6-2, on Sunday at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees scraped together just enough from their numerous opportunities to score against Tigers starter Max Scherzer, posting a victory even after stranding an eye-popping 15 men on base.
Hoping for a deep outing to assist a taxed bullpen, the Yankees got what they needed from Sabathia, as the ace left-hander pitched eight innings and limited the Tigers to two runs as he charged to his third consecutive victory.
I guess we can stop worrying about CC for now.
Nick Swisher left the game with a low-grade hamstring strain, which may not necessarily require a DL stint, but will probably keep him out of action for a few games. I guess this means more Raul Ibanez follies in the OF.
Friday, April 20, 2012
Crashing the Party
I decided to make use of my field pass during Yankees' batting practice on Friday afternoon. I figured that I should make the most of it before somebody wised up and revoked it.
Trying to remain as incognito as possible, I snapped off a few pictures using my phone (hence the poor picture quality). Click on any of them to enlarge.
I took this shot just as the Red Sox were finishing up their BP - all the Yankees were still in the dugout getting ready to come out and stretch.
Papelbon is right, Mo has a great smile.
CHB asked asked A-Rod about his favorite Fenway moments. I believe A-Rod mentioned his first major league game in July of 1994.
One of the funnier moments I witnessed was when Nick Swisher came into the dugout before taking BP. Russell Martin was just about to sit down with a reporter from a Canadian news outlet, and Swisher started yelling out, "French time? Time for French!?"
Another interesting thing I caught was Swisher talking to Ibanez about the difference between Yankee Stadium's short porch and the wall in left at Fenway. He said something about how if you get jammed at Yankee Stadium, you won't be able to muscle it out; but you can get jammed and still go deep over the monster. Or maybe it was the other way around. The funny thing was that it almost looked like he got jammed in his first plate appearance on Friday and he actually took it the other way for a HR over the monster.
Kuroda sitting down for an interview with Japanese TV. I only caught one word: Ichiro.
Every time I get an assignment for a Yankee game, I hope to see Mariano Rivera take the mound. So when Cody Eppley came in with a four run lead in the bottom of the ninth, I was a bit disconcerted. However, it only took one single off the bat of Jarrod Saltalamacchia for Girardi to make the inevitable call to the bullpen, and I once again got to see my absolute favorite player in action. Two strike outs and a ground out was all the Red Sox could muster against the greatest closer in baseball history, and the Yankees took the first game of the season series 6-2.
Happy Birthday Fenway.
Thursday, April 19, 2012
NY Post: Great grab sends Yankees’ Gardner to DL
The left fielder was scratched before Wednesday night’s game because of a sore right elbow and an MRI exam showed a bruise and a slight strain. He was placed on the 15-day disabled list.
This stinks,
The Yankees called up right-hander Cody Eppley from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to take Gardner’s place. Eppley was claimed from Texas at the end of spring training.
Sure, when you lose your starting LF, call up a right-handed relief specialist.
Gardner’s absence deprives the Yankeess of some speed and they will be forced to use Andruw Jones, Raul Ibanez and Eduardo Nunez more in left.
Yikes.
“His defense is the best part of this team,” said Jones, who had some adventures there last night.
‘
Yes it is Andruw. Yes it is.
Alright, enough snark. What is the impact of this?
Offense is not the issue. In fact, it’s possible a Jones/Ibanez platoon would be more productive at the plate than Gardner, although less so on the bases. Here are their respective CAIRO projections over 100 PA.
| player | pa | avg | obp | slg | woba | br | woba vs L | woba vs R |
| Gardner | 100 | .262 | .354 | .371 | .328 | 12 | .308 | .335 |
| Jones | 100 | .224 | .327 | .431 | .332 | 12 | .348 | .327 |
| Ibanez | 100 | .269 | .336 | .474 | .350 | 14 | .324 | .359 |
BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
This includes stolen bases, but not other base running. The impact of that over 25-30 games is probably on the order of about 1-2 runs.
Defense is the real issue here. Here are how the three players’ average defensive projections compare.
| player | pos | Inn | DRS | UZR | TZ | ZR | avg rs | rs/9 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 882 | 13 | 19 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 0.16 |
| Andruw Jones | LF | 161 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 |
| Raul Ibanez | LF | 1221 | -8 | -9 | -6 | -2 | -6 | -0.04 |
DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating
My eyes tell me Andruw Jones is not an average LF, but my eyes are probably comparing him to Brett Gardner. My eyes do tell me Ibanez is a horrific defender. You can use the rs/9 times number of games you think Gardner will miss to get a rough idea of the defensive impact. Over 20 games, Gardner would project to save about 3 runs above an average defender. Jones would project to be about 0.7 runs above an average defender and Ibanez would be about a run worse. So you’re probably looking at a defensive hit in the area of three runs.
So figure something like 0 runs difference on offense minus 1-2 runs on the bases - 3 runs on defense = -4 to -5 runs. You can fiddle around with platooning and defensive substituting and I haven’t included Nun-E in here since I have no idea how to project him defensively but it shouldn’t change the overall bottom line all that much.
Losing Gardner is not great news, but it’s not catastrophic, provided he can return within a month. With wrist injuries that’s never a sure thing though.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
2012 Yankee Position Player WAR through April 11
I’m just goofing around with my spreadsheets for 2012 and figured I’d post this. I’ve decided that this year I’m going to just use Fangraphs’ data for everything except defense since I don’t like using UZR as the sole determination of a player’s defense. I’ll still keep my own set of numbers as a sanity check in case I start having questions about what Fangraphs says, but I don’t generally have much of an issue with their position player valuations. I’ll still do my own pitching valuation.
| name | team | lg | pos | pa | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | so | gdp | sb | cs | avg | obp | slg | woba | avg_def | war |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | AL | SS | 30 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .370 | .414 | .556 | .403 | -0.2 | 2.1 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | AL | RF | 30 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .208 | .367 | .542 | .392 | -0.5 | 1.6 |
| Eduardo Nunez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .500 | .452 | -0.2 | 0.7 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | AL | LF | 19 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .353 | .389 | .353 | .346 | -0.1 | 0.5 |
| Andruw Jones | Yankees | AL | LF | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .286 | .333 | .714 | .409 | -0.2 | 0.5 |
| Russell Martin | Yankees | AL | C | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .455 | .200 | .338 | -0.3 | 0.3 |
| Eric Chavez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .500 | .440 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Raul Ibanez | Yankees | AL | RF | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .200 | .278 | .467 | .322 | -0.1 | 0.2 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .174 | .345 | .261 | .299 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | AL | 1B | 29 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .310 | .280 | .273 | 0.1 | -0.6 |
| Chris Stewart | Yankees | AL | C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0.0 | -0.7 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | AL | CF | 29 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .310 | .440 | .315 | -1.1 | -0.8 |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | AL | 2B | 30 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .300 | .357 | .290 | -0.7 | -1.0 |
woba: Weighted on-base average
avg_def: Average of DRS, UZR and ZR
war: wins above replacement (using Fangraphs’ offensive WAR plus baserunning with avg_def)
So the Yankees should DFA Mark Teixeira, Chris Stewart, Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano apparently. A bit surprised to see Cano at the bottom of the list, although it appears to be a defense thing.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Yankees.com; Ibanez ends drama as Yanks prevail in 12
BALTIMORE—Raul Ibanez provided the Yankees with the big hit that they’d been searching for all night, delivering a go-ahead ground-rule double that powered a 5-4 victory over the Orioles in 12 innings on Tuesday at Camden Yards.
I didn’t think Joe Girardi managed this game all that well, but I’m glad the team won. I didn’t really have a problem with using Boone Logan to start the ninth, particularly since he was on a short leash and got pulled as soon as the first batter reached. My primary beef was the whole sequence in the top of the 11th. After Russell Martin walked to lead off the inning, Girardi pinch-ran for him with Eduardo Nunez. The benefit to this is getting a stolen base threat into the game. Instead, Girardi had left-handed hitting Brett Gardner bunt Nunez to second against a RHP so that Derek Jeter could try to drive him in with the platoon disadvantage. This also meant that the next time Martin’s spot came up, it’d be Chris Stewart in his spot. It turned out to not matter, but I think Girardi would be better off not trying to be so active when an opportunity presents itself.
Of course if one of the Yankees #4 or #5 or #6 hitters could have gotten a hit in the fifty times they came up with a chance to drive in a runner it would have been a non-issue.
On the plus side, David Phelps was nails after a crappy outing by Freddy Garcia, as was Cory Wade. Raul Ibanez’s big hit was obviously cool, and Mariano Rivera closed it out with a perfect 12th inning, lowering his ERA to 7.71. The Yankees have a chance to head home at .500 if they can win tomorrow behind CC Sabathia, and after starting out 0-3 you can’t ask for more than that.
Friday, April 6, 2012
Looking Ahead To 2012 - Team Wrap Up
Opening Day is here, which means we can forget about projections and start complaining about games that count.
We’ve looked at the projections for most of the key players on the Yankees Opening Day roster, with apologies to Chris Stewart.
Russell Martin
Mark Teixeira
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Eduardo Nun-E-z
The Speedy Brett Gardner
Curtis Granderson
Nick Swisher
Andruw Jones and Jesus Montero Raul Ibanez
CC Sabathia
Hiroki Kuroda
Phil Hughes
Michael Pineda
Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia
$36M and a lost draft pick
David Robertson
Booooone Logan and Clay Rapada
Cory Wade and David Phelps
Mariano F’ing Rivera
So now I try to assemble that into a team projection. I’ll show the depth charts I used for the 2012 MLB Projection Blowout with CAIRO.
| order | player | position | pa | outs | avg/obp/slg | woba | br | def |
| 1 | Derek Jeter | SS | 575 | 392 | .286/.345/.384 | .325 | 69 | -7 |
| 2 | Curtis Granderson | CF | 625 | 421 | .263/.351/.502 | .366 | 98 | 0 |
| 3 | Mark Teixeira | 1B | 675 | 447 | .263/.359/.493 | .368 | 105 | 4 |
| 4 | Robinson Cano | 2B | 675 | 460 | .303/.352/.504 | .368 | 105 | 0 |
| 5 | Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 450 | 300 | .273/.363/.474 | .365 | 68 | 0 |
| 6 | Nick Swisher | RF | 625 | 418 | .259/.356/.455 | .354 | 90 | 4 |
| 7 | Raul Ibanez | DH | 400 | 279 | .266/.329/.458 | .340 | 55 | 0 |
| 8 | Russell Martin | C | 500 | 346 | .253/.347/.383 | .329 | 60 | 0 |
| 9 | Brett Gardner | LF | 600 | 410 | .262/.347/.371 | .324 | 76 | 16 |
| Starters | 5125 | 3473 | .271/.351/.449 | .350 | 726 | 18 | ||
| bench | player | position | pa | outs | avg/obp/slg | woba | br | def |
| Eduardo Nunez | IF | 375 | 271 | .262/.315/.392 | .310 | 44 | -6 | |
| Andruw Jones | OF | 275 | 194 | .221/.318/.413 | .321 | 34 | 0 | |
| Eric Chavez | 3B | 250 | 182 | .240/.296/.356 | .288 | 24 | 0 | |
| Chris Stewart | C | 100 | 72 | .228/.299/.328 | .283 | 9 | 0 | |
| Francisco Cervelli | C | 100 | 70 | .264/.328/.373 | .312 | 11 | 0 | |
| Ramiro Pena | IF | 50 | 37 | .240/.290/.340 | .280 | 5 | 0 | |
| Brandon Laird | 1B/3B | 40 | 29 | .247/.292/.407 | .304 | 4 | 0 | |
| Chris Dickerson | OF | 0 | 0 | .243/.321/.369 | .308 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jack Cust | DH | 0 | 0 | .243/.362/.420 | .349 | 0 | 0 | |
| Russell Branyan | DH | 0 | 0 | .240/.330/.458 | .341 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dewayne Wise | OF | 0 | 0 | .243/.286/.406 | .298 | 0 | 0 | |
| David Adams | 2B | 0 | 0 | .244/.311/.377 | .305 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bench | 1190 | 855 | .244/.309/.381 | .304 | 131 | -6 | ||
| Team | 6315 | 4328 | .266/.343/.436 | .341 | 857 | 12 |
woba: Weighted on-base average
br: Linear weights batting runs
def: Estimated runs saved compared to average using an average of zone rating, DRS, UZR and Totalzone
The biggest area of concern for the position players is probably Alex Rodriguez’s health. A weighted average of his past four years puts him at 459 PA. I’m also not particularly optimistic that Raul Ibanez can hit that projected line, although as half of a platoon it’s more feasible. To a lesser extent the team’s overall health is probably a concern, although in my mind it’s not a huge one. Losing Curtis Granderson or Robinson Cano for an extensive period of time wouldn’t be good since they’re probably the two most valuable position players on the team right now, but you can say that for any team losing one or both of their top two position players.
Regarding Chris Stewart vs. Francisco Cervelli, it’s a clear offensive downgrade. The question is how defense changes things. If we use Cervelli’s 2011 playing time as an estimate for the 2012 backup catchers, you’re looking at something like 137 PA. Let’s round that up to 200 PA in case Russell Martin misses some more time than expected.
200 PA of Cervelli projects to be worth 22 runs. For Stewart, 200 PA projects to be worth about 18 runs. As far as defense, I’m going to ignore pitch framing and blocking and just compare the difference between them in SB/CS. In their careers, that looks like this:
| player | inn | sb | cs | sba | cs% |
| Cervelli | 1295 | 93 | 23 | 116 | 19.8% |
| Stewart | 590 | 44 | 28 | 72 | 38.9% |
Runners may not run as frequently against Stewart if teams have more respect for his arm than they do for Cervelli’s, although runners have attempted 0.12 steals per inning vs. Stewart compared to 0.09 steals per innings vs. Cervelli in their respective careers. I’ll split the difference, which means 42 stolen base attempts over 400 innings. Using the linear weights values for SB/CS gives us this.
| player | inn | sb | cs | sba | cs% | rv |
| Cervelli | 400 | 34 | 8 | 42 | 19.8% | 4 |
| Stewart | 400 | 26 | 16 | 42 | 38.9% | -1 |
rv: linear weights run value of SB/CS.
A positive run value means more runs for the team stealing bases, so the difference between Stewart and Cervelli there effectively nullifies Cervelli’s offensive edge. Whether other factors of catcher defense change things beyond that, I have no idea.
Back to the rest of the team, the Yankees actually project to score more runs than any other team in baseball according to the aggregate projections I ran, although CAIRO sees them about nine runs behind Boston. They may be able to pick up a few more runs if they swap out Ibanez for Russell Branyan and/or Jack Cust at some point.
Most of the defense projects as average, aside from Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher, Brett Gardner and Nun-E. Overall they project about 12 runs better than average.
Of course, 90% of the game is pitching, so how’s that look?
| Role | Player | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP |
| SP1 | CC Sabathia | 220 | 220 | 91 | 82 | 19 | 64 | 203 | 3.57 | 3.24 | 3.23 |
| SP2 | Hiroki Kuroda | 190 | 190 | 91 | 80 | 21 | 44 | 126 | 4.57 | 4.01 | 3.92 |
| SP3 | Michael Pineda | 150 | 150 | 82 | 76 | 21 | 53 | 157 | 4.37 | 4.06 | 3.79 |
| SP4 | Ivan Nova | 150 | 150 | 78 | 72 | 16 | 57 | 89 | 4.93 | 4.50 | 4.52 |
| SP5 | Phil Hughes | 150 | 150 | 75 | 73 | 19 | 50 | 114 | 4.63 | 4.49 | 4.26 |
| SP6 | Andy Pettitte | 110 | 110 | 51 | 47 | 11 | 35 | 76 | 4.33 | 4.01 | 4.00 |
| SP7 | Freddy Garcia | 40 | 40 | 18 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 4.55 | 4.28 | 4.28 |
| SP8 | Manny Banuelos | 20 | 20 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 6.20 | 5.72 | 5.43 |
| SP9 | Dellin Betances | 20 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 6.51 | 6.02 | 5.75 |
| SP10 | Adam Warren | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.41 | 5.00 | 4.72 |
| Starters | Total | 1050 | 1050 | 510 | 469 | 117 | 335 | 813 | 4.38 | 4.02 | 3.98 |
| Role | Player | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP |
| CL | Mariano Rivera | 65 | 65 | 25 | 23 | 5 | 16 | 77 | 2.63 | 2.46 | 2.71 |
| SU | David Robertson | 70 | 70 | 28 | 26 | 5 | 43 | 109 | 2.96 | 2.77 | 2.84 |
| SU | Rafael Soriano | 60 | 60 | 31 | 29 | 8 | 26 | 69 | 3.82 | 3.60 | 3.64 |
| MR | Boone Logan | 50 | 50 | 23 | 20 | 5 | 19 | 46 | 4.29 | 3.76 | 3.71 |
| MR | Cory Wade | 40 | 40 | 20 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 28 | 4.44 | 4.08 | 4.31 |
| MR | Clay Rapada | 50 | 50 | 26 | 24 | 5 | 23 | 39 | 4.63 | 4.35 | 4.25 |
| LR | David Phelps | 50 | 50 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 14 | 24 | 5.58 | 5.16 | 4.88 |
| LR | D.J. Mitchell | 23 | 23 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 5.99 | 5.54 | 5.26 |
| Relievers | Total | 408 | 408 | 191 | 177 | 43 | 161 | 403 | 4.21 | 3.90 | 3.75 |
| Team | Total | 1458 | 1458 | 701 | 646 | 160 | 496 | 1216 | 4.33 | 3.99 | 3.91 |
Assigning innings to the staff was a bit trickier this year. The Yankees have a whole bunch of guys who could pitch in the middle/back of the rotation and injuries/circumstances may have a greater say in that than merit. There’s not a ton of difference in the projections of starters 2-7, although it’s probably fair to wonder how accurate projecting Andy Pettitte will be after a year off. But really, you can juggle the innings around between Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes and Freddy Garcia and probably not see a big difference. CC Sabathia is really the one starter the Yankees can’t afford to lose for any appreciable amount of time.
As far as the pen, it looked better before Joba Chamberlain got hurt. There’s still probably not an end-game you’d take over Mariano Rivera/David Robertson, and for all the crap I spew about the Soriano signing he should be solid, but an injury to either Mo or Robertson suddenly makes it look a bit thin. David Aardsma may be able to pitch at some point, but that’s uncertain.
So, adding this up, this is what CAIRO says.
| RS | 848 |
| Def | 12 |
| RA | 701 |
| wpct | .598 |
| p162 | 97 |
848 runs scored and 701 runs allowed plus 12 runs saved compared to average puts the Yankees at a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .598, which is equivalent to a 97 win team. CAIRO projected them at 96 in the projection blowout, which is probably a strength of schedule thing.
The other projections I ran say:
Marcel: 92
Oliver: 94
PECOTA: 95
ZiPS: 95
Average: 94
Clay Davenport has them at 93, the official version of Oliver has them at 96 and the official version of PECOTA has them at 94 wins.
I am fairly certain about one thing in baseball this year. The best team in the American League will be the best team in baseball. I’m not quite as certain that the Yankees are that team. They project to be, but Texas has represented the AL in the last two World Series (shamefully, but still…) and if Yu Darvish is a front-line MLB starting pitcher(I think he is), it’s not a stretch to see them as the best team in the league. If the Angels stop dicking around with Vernon Wells and put Mike Trout in their outfield they also have a chance to be the best team in the league, plus they’ll sweep the Yankees in the regular season even if they’re not. Detroit’s defense looks like a problem to me, and while they should score plenty of runs, I have a hard time seeing them as being better than all three of the Rangers, Angels, and Yankees. Of course, we also have the two chief rivals in the AL East to worry about. It wouldn’t take much in the way of good fortune for Boston/Tampa Bay or bad fortune for the Yankees to drop the Yanks into third place.
Still, it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Yankees fail to qualify for the postseason. I suppose losing any of CC Sabathia, Robinson Cano or Curtis Granderson for an extended period of time would be one such scenario.
According to the average team projections I ran their probability of winning at least the second wild card at 82.5%, which is the highest in baseball and 7% ahead of Texas who rank second. CAIRO likes the Yankees even more than that at 83.5%, but that ranks second to Texas’s 84.1%. On average, it took 92 wins to win the first AL wild card and 89 wins to get the second one, but these are the Yankees. Division or bust! Wild cards are for losers!
Since rilkefan asked about how these projections have fared in the past, I did a quick little chart. This compares the average of however many projections I ran that year to what the Yankees actually did.
| Year | Projected | Actual | Difference |
| 2005 | 94 | 95 | 1 |
| 2006 | 90 | 97 | 7 |
| 2007 | 95 | 94 | -1 |
| 2008 | 95 | 89 | -6 |
| 2009 | 96 | 103 | 7 |
| 2010 | 96 | 95 | -1 |
| 2011 | 92 | 97 | 5 |
| average | 94 | 95.7 | 1.7 |
| rms | 4.8 |
So the Yankees have been a bit less than two wins better than projected on average since I began running these in 2005. The methodology has changed, I think for the better, but it’s still limited. But I’m pretty comfortable the Yankees will be one of the best teams in baseball. That’s really all you can ask for as a fan when the season starts, right?
Yay Opening Day!
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Sporting News: Yankees sign Jack Cust to minor league contract
The New York Yankees have signed free-agent DH/outfielder Jack Cust to a minor league deal, according to WFAN.
Cust was released by the Houston Astros on Tuesday after he went 1-for-25 with eight strikeouts in Grapefruit League play this spring. This past offseason, the Astros signed him to a one-year deal with a team option for 2013.
Cust is 33, which surprised me. I figured he was like 50. Here are his CAIRO projections as a Yankee.
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAR |
| 80% | 362 | 303 | 49 | 84 | 19 | 1 | 17 | 49 | 3 | 0 | 66 | 95 | 3 | 4 | .277 | .426 | .516 | .418 | 65 | 18 |
| 65% | 332 | 278 | 42 | 73 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 57 | 93 | 4 | 3 | .261 | .399 | .471 | .388 | 52 | 9 |
| Baseline | 302 | 253 | 35 | 62 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 48 | 89 | 4 | 2 | .246 | .372 | .427 | .358 | 41 | 2 |
| 35% | 272 | 228 | 29 | 52 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 40 | 84 | 5 | 1 | .230 | .345 | .382 | .327 | 31 | -4 |
| 20% | 242 | 202 | 23 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 79 | 5 | 0 | .215 | .318 | .338 | .297 | 23 | -8 |
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
The baseline projection is effectively replacement level for a DH, but the OBP is intriguing. His platoon split projections also indicate some possible upside.
| split | pa | ab | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | so | hbp | gdp | avg | obp | slg | woba |
| vs. LHP | 95 | 81 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 29 | 1 | 1 | .226 | .345 | .393 | .323 |
| Vs. RHP | 275 | 229 | 58 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 43 | 80 | 2 | 4 | .253 | .381 | .438 | .361 |
| Overall | 370 | 310 | 76 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 56 | 109 | 2 | 5 | .246 | .372 | .427 | .351 |
In terms of offense between Cust and Raul Iganez vs. LHP, the difference is minimal.
| player | pa | ab | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | so | hbp | gdp | avg | obp | slg | woba | outs | br |
| Cust vs. RHP | 400 | 333 | 84 | 18 | 1 | 16 | 62 | 116 | 2 | 6 | .253 | .381 | .438 | .361 | 255 | 57 |
| Ibanez vs. RHP | 400 | 359 | 98 | 23 | 2 | 16 | 37 | 65 | 1 | 10 | .272 | .342 | .470 | .348 | 271 | 56 |
However, the key thing here is that over 400 PA Cust projects to make 16 fewer outs. Those outs can theoretically go to better hitters.
He can’t run the bases at all, and he’s a disaster defensively, but he’s a nice option to have sitting around in the event that Ibanez get DFA’d if Russell Branyan’s not an option.
Friday, March 16, 2012
TGS NY: Sources: Andy Pettitte returning
TAMPA, Fla.—Left-hander Andy Pettitte is coming back to the New York Yankees.
Pettitte, who retired before last season, has agreed to a $2.5 million minor league deal and will work his way back into shape, baseball sources told ESPN The Magazine’s Buster Olney.
Pettitte started 21 games in 2010 for the Yankees, going 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA. He was 14-8 with a 4.16 ERA in 2009, his last full season.
My sources have procured an exclusive picture of Pettitte working his way back into shape.
Yeah, I used the same pic and joke last year. So what?
Pettitte can probably platoon with Andruw Jones at DH and provide more offense than Raul Ibanez.
Seriously though, I don’t get this. Isn’t starting pitching the last area of need for the Yankees? That being said, I’m happy to see how this works out. It can’t hurt, really.
Update: Pettitte’s CAIRO percentile forecasts added below:
| % | G | GS | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 25 | 25 | 10 | 7 | 152 | 145 | 64 | 57 | 12 | 43 | 2 | 121 | 3.76 | 3.38 | 3.28 | 39 | 3.9 |
| 65% | 23 | 23 | 9 | 7 | 140 | 139 | 63 | 57 | 13 | 43 | 3 | 106 | 4.09 | 3.69 | 3.64 | 31 | 3.1 |
| Baseline | 21 | 21 | 8 | 6 | 127 | 132 | 62 | 57 | 13 | 42 | 3 | 92 | 4.42 | 4.01 | 4.00 | 23 | 2.3 |
| 35% | 17 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 102 | 110 | 54 | 49 | 12 | 36 | 4 | 69 | 4.75 | 4.32 | 4.37 | 15 | 1.5 |
| 20% | 15 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 89 | 101 | 50 | 46 | 12 | 34 | 4 | 57 | 5.09 | 4.63 | 4.73 | 10 | 1.0 |
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs saved above replacement level using RA
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Looking Ahead to 2012 - Andruw Jones and Raul Ibanez
With the loss of Jesus Montero and with Russell Branyan not having made an appearance yet due to a back injury, the 2012 DH for the Yankees is probably going to be some combination of Andruw Jones, Raul Ibanez, and starters that are getting a half day of rest. No, it’s not quite as exciting as it would have been to watch Montero developing, but it is what it is.
2011
From 2007-2009 Jones hit .207/.304/.393 over 1228 PA and effectively appeared to be done as an MLB player. Over the last two seasons he’s hit .237/.347/.489 with 32 HRs in 550 PA and appears to have recovered some of that lost ability. Is that true though?
| split | pa% | pa | ab | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | k | avg | obp | slg | bb/pa | k/pa | babip |
| vs. LHP (2010-2011) | 45% | 248 | 212 | 58 | 10 | 0 | 16 | 33 | 3 | 58 | .274 | .379 | .547 | 13.3% | 23.4% | .304 |
| vs. RHP (2010-2011) | 55% | 302 | 256 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 16 | 41 | 3 | 77 | .207 | .321 | .441 | 13.6% | 25.5% | .224 |
| Total (2010-2011) | 550 | 468 | 111 | 20 | 1 | 32 | 74 | 6 | 135 | .237 | .347 | .489 | 13.5% | 24.5% | .261 | |
| vs. LHP (2007-2009) | 37% | 454 | 374 | 80 | 20 | 2 | 16 | 70 | 5 | 97 | .214 | .341 | .406 | 15.4% | 21.4% | .241 |
| vs. RHP (2007-2009) | 63% | 774 | 688 | 140 | 33 | 1 | 30 | 72 | 6 | 189 | .203 | .282 | .385 | 9.3% | 24.4% | .231 |
| Total (2007-2009) | 1228 | 1062 | 220 | 53 | 3 | 46 | 142 | 11 | 286 | .207 | .304 | .393 | 11.6% | 23.3% | .234 |
He’s walked and struck out a bit more over the last two seasons when compared to his 2007-2009 stretch, but other that the primary change appears to be in his deployment (a higher percentage of PA vs. LHP) and in his batting average on balls in play (BABIP of .261 vs. .234). It’s easy to forget now that the calls for Jones to be DFA’d last season were pretty frequent early on, as he hit .195.278/.356 through July 10. Jones surged after that and ended the year by hitting .291/.416/.612 over his final 125 PA.
Jones faced LHP in 79.7% of his 2011 PA, and that may help explain some of his better than expected performance. However, he did face a higher percentage of RHP over the second half of the year.
| split | pa% | pa | ab | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | k | avg | obp | slg | bb/pa | k/pa | babip |
| vs. LHP(through 7/10/2011) | 75% | 73 | 65 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 22 | .231 | .315 | .446 | 11.0% | 30.1% | .282 |
| vs. RHP(through 7/10/2011) | 25% | 24 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | .091 | .167 | .091 | 8.3% | 33.3% | .143 |
| Total (through 7/10/2011) | 97 | 87 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 30 | .195 | .278 | .356 | 10.3% | 30.9% | .245 | |
| vs. LHP(7/14/2011 on) | 58% | 73 | 61 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 17 | .344 | .452 | .639 | 13.7% | 23.3% | .425 |
| vs. RHP (7/14/2011 on) | 42% | 52 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 15 | .214 | .365 | .571 | 17.3% | 28.8% | .182 |
| Total (through 7/14/2011 on) | 125 | 103 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 19 | 3 | 32 | .291 | .416 | .612 | 15.2% | 25.6% | .339 |
The BABIP was low but he hit for good power against them.
Raul Ibanez did stuff last year too, but it was in a weaker league for a weaker team and I don’t really feel like getting into it.
Offensive Projections
Can some combination of Jones and Ibanez provide a useful primary DH? Here are Jones’s projections.
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAR |
| cairo | 315 | 271 | 38 | 60 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 41 | 4 | 1 | 37 | 76 | 8 | 3 | .221 | .318 | .413 | .321 | 37 | 76 | 3 |
| davenport | 353 | 308 | 41 | 74 | 15 | 1 | 18 | 41 | 3 | 1 | 42 | 81 | 9 | 3 | .240 | .337 | .471 | .351 | 49 | 89 | 7 |
| marcel | 344 | 297 | 41 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 16 | 45 | 6 | 2 | 40 | 78 | 9 | 3 | .236 | .328 | .451 | .338 | 45 | 85 | 7 |
| oliver | 369 | 319 | 46 | 74 | 15 | 1 | 17 | 51 | 4 | 2 | 45 | 86 | 9 | 3 | .232 | .331 | .445 | .338 | 47 | 83 | 7 |
| pecota | 414 | 362 | 48 | 80 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 48 | 5 | 2 | 48 | 102 | 11 | 4 | .220 | .317 | .410 | .321 | 48 | 75 | 3 |
| zips | 257 | 222 | 31 | 52 | 10 | 0 | 13 | 38 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 65 | 7 | 2 | .234 | .335 | .455 | .344 | 34 | 86 | 6 |
| average | 342 | 295 | 41 | 65 | 14 | 1 | 16 | 44 | 4 | 2 | 41 | 82 | 9 | 3 | .221 | .319 | .443 | .336 | 42 | 80 | 5 |
| 2011 | 222 | 190 | 27 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 62 | 3 | 3 | .247 | .356 | .495 | .368 | 33 | 97 | 9 |
| 2011 AL | 222 | 199 | 26 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 40 | 4 | 2 | .258 | .323 | .408 | .319 | 26 | 75 |
For more information about the projections above, you can read the first post in this series.
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average line for his 2011 PA as frames of reference. I haven’t adjusted league average for DNYS.
And for Ibanez.
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAR |
| cairo | 609 | 549 | 76 | 146 | 34 | 3 | 22 | 87 | 4 | 2 | 52 | 111 | 14 | 2 | .266 | .329 | .458 | .340 | 80 | 85 | 13 |
| davenport | |||||||||||||||||||||
| marcel | 551 | 497 | 66 | 126 | 29 | 3 | 19 | 74 | 4 | 1 | 45 | 105 | 13 | 2 | .254 | .314 | .439 | .325 | 67 | 79 | 7 |
| oliver | 577 | 523 | 63 | 128 | 28 | 2 | 17 | 69 | 3 | 1 | 46 | 104 | 15 | 1 | .245 | .303 | .403 | .308 | 63 | 70 | 0 |
| pecota | 552 | 507 | 66 | 126 | 28 | 2 | 17 | 66 | 2 | 1 | 43 | 109 | 13 | 2 | .249 | .310 | .413 | .317 | 62 | 73 | 2 |
| zips | 540 | 494 | 62 | 125 | 28 | 2 | 18 | 83 | 3 | 1 | 40 | 98 | 12 | 1 | .253 | .307 | .427 | .318 | 63 | 76 | 4 |
| average | 566 | 510 | 71 | 136 | 29 | 2 | 19 | 76 | 3 | 1 | 45 | 105 | 13 | 2 | .266 | .323 | .431 | .322 | 70 | 81 | 9 |
| 2011 | 575 | 535 | 65 | 131 | 31 | 1 | 20 | 84 | 2 | 0 | 33 | 106 | 13 | 2 | .245 | .289 | .419 | .305 | 63 | 71 | 0 |
| 2011 AL | 575 | 516 | 67 | 133 | 27 | 3 | 15 | 64 | 11 | 4 | 46 | 104 | 11 | 5 | .258 | .323 | .408 | .319 | 66 | 75 |
I’ll just say I think CAIRO is way, way off on Ibanez. BRAR for both players are being calculated as DHs. If they are able to play the OF they would pick a bit more relative value, although Ibanez surely gives that all away with his defense.
CAIRO Percentiles Forecast - Jones
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAR |
| 80% | 346 | 298 | 48 | 75 | 18 | 2 | 18 | 52 | 6 | 0 | 48 | 74 | 7 | 5 | .250 | .368 | .500 | .378 | 55 | 103 | 17 |
| 65% | 330 | 285 | 43 | 67 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 46 | 5 | 1 | 42 | 76 | 6 | 4 | .236 | .343 | .456 | .350 | 46 | 90 | 10 |
| Baseline | 315 | 271 | 38 | 60 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 41 | 4 | 1 | 37 | 76 | 8 | 3 | .221 | .318 | .413 | .321 | 37 | 76 | 3 |
| 35% | 283 | 244 | 31 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 34 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 73 | 8 | 3 | .207 | .299 | .370 | .296 | 28 | 64 | -3 |
| 20% | 252 | 217 | 25 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 68 | 9 | 4 | .193 | .280 | .326 | .271 | 20 | 51 | -8 |
Jones had knee surgery in the offseason and came into camp in great shape (just like every other player but Phil Hughes circa 2011). I think his baseline forecast is a bit pessimistic and wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the 65% area. I do think it’s wishful thinking to think he’s going to suddenly re-establish himself as an everyday player after five straight seasons of not being one, but I don’t think anyone here really thinks that.
CAIRO Percentiles Forecast - Ibanez
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAR |
| 80% | 670 | 604 | 93 | 174 | 44 | 5 | 29 | 106 | 6 | 0 | 65 | 110 | 12 | 4 | .288 | .363 | .523 | .381 | 108 | 105 | 35 |
| 65% | 639 | 577 | 84 | 160 | 39 | 4 | 25 | 96 | 5 | 1 | 58 | 111 | 11 | 3 | .277 | .346 | .490 | .361 | 94 | 95 | 24 |
| Baseline | 609 | 549 | 76 | 146 | 34 | 3 | 22 | 87 | 4 | 2 | 52 | 111 | 14 | 2 | .266 | .329 | .458 | .340 | 80 | 85 | 13 |
| 35% | 548 | 494 | 65 | 126 | 28 | 2 | 17 | 74 | 3 | 2 | 43 | 104 | 14 | 3 | .255 | .314 | .426 | .321 | 64 | 76 | 4 |
| 20% | 487 | 439 | 54 | 107 | 23 | 1 | 14 | 62 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 97 | 14 | 3 | .244 | .300 | .394 | .302 | 50 | 67 | -3 |
I’ll go the opposite direction here. I think Ibanez’s baseline projection is way optimistic. I think his 35% projection is optimistic too. I would be shocked if he’s a Yankee at the All Star Break.
Neither guy is probably worthy of being the full-time DH. However, a platoon of the two would look something like this.
| split | pa | ab | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | so | hbp | gdp | avg | obp | slg | woba | br/650 |
| Jones vs. LHP | 166 | 139 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 39 | 1 | 4 | .234 | .352 | .413 | .343 | 90 |
| Ibanez vs. RHP | 447 | 401 | 109 | 26 | 2 | 18 | 41 | 73 | 1 | 11 | .272 | .336 | .470 | .348 | 90 |
| Overall | 612 | 540 | 142 | 33 | 2 | 23 | 65 | 112 | 2 | 15 | .263 | .341 | .462 | .347 | 90 |
That’s probably worth about a win over a replacement level DH.
Base Running
Both players are physically capable of running the bases.
Defense - Jones
| pos | Inn | DRS | UZR | TZ | ZR | avg | |
| LF | 161 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| CF | 161 | 1 | 2 | -4 | -1 | 0 | |
| RF | 161 | 2 | 2 | -4 | -1 | 0 | |
| Total | 483 | 3 | 5 | -8 | -2 | 1 |
DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating
Jones can still probably play average defense in the corners. He can probably play some CF too, although he should be behind Brett Gardner on the depth chart.
Defense - Ibanez
| pos | Inn | DRS | UZR | TZ | ZR | avg | |
| LF | 1221 | -8 | -9 | -6 | -2 | -6 |
I thought Ibanez would show up as -20 or so, so this surprises me some. I don’t think he’s a good OF, but hopefully he won’t be needed much out there.
Value - Jones
| Projection | RAA | Rep | Pos | RAR | BRR | Def | WAR |
| cairo | 1 | 10 | -8 | 3 | -1.5 | 1 | 0.2 |
| marcel | 5 | 11 | -9 | 7 | -1.5 | 1 | 0.6 |
| oliver | 5 | 12 | -9 | 7 | -1.5 | 1 | 0.6 |
| pecota | 0 | 13 | -10 | 3 | -1.5 | 1 | 0.2 |
| zips | 4 | 8 | -6 | 6 | -1.5 | 1 | 0.5 |
| average | 2 | 11 | -9 | 5 | -1.5 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2011 | 8 | 7 | -6 | 9 | -2.3 | 3 | 1.0 |
Rep: Replacement level adjustment (22 runs per 700 PA pro-rated to projected PA)
Pos: Position-adjustment
RAR: Runs above replacement (Rep + Pos)
BRR: Base running runs (does not include SB)
Def: Projected runs saved defensively
WAR: Wins above replacement (RAR + BRR + Def) divided by 10
Offense replacement level is compared to DH, so give him a few more runs depending on how much outfield he plays.
Value - Ibanez
| Projection | RAA | Rep | Pos | RAR | BRR | Def | WAR |
| cairo | 10 | 19 | -15 | 13 | -0.4 | 0 | 1.3 |
| marcel | 3 | 17 | -14 | 7 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.7 |
| oliver | -4 | 18 | -14 | 0 | -0.4 | 0 | -0.1 |
| pecota | -1 | 17 | -14 | 2 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.2 |
| zips | 1 | 17 | -14 | 4 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.4 |
| average | 5 | 18 | -14 | 9 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.8 |
| 2011 | -4 | 18 | -14 | 0 | -0.6 | 3 | 0.2 |
Again I’ll mention that I think CAIRO is insane with its Ibanez projection. Thankfully the Yankees don’t have that much invested in him, and if he does start to drag them down he can be released fairly easily. I think Russell Branyan would out-produce Ibanez vs. RHP, but I don’t know how long he’ll be in the organization if he doesn’t break camp with the team.
DH doesn’t seem like it’s going to be much of an asset this year, and it’s certainly not going to be as enjoyable as it would have been with Montero around. And for some reason my hands want to type Iganez every time I try to type Ibanez, which makes these posts take several seconds longer to write. Despite all that, it could be worse.
We could be watching pitchers “hit.”
Monday, February 20, 2012
NYDN: New York Yankees sign Raul Ibanez to 1-year, $1.1 million contract
TAMPA – As expected, the Yankees’ search for a lefthanded designated hitter moved quickly Monday, as Raul Ibanez agreed to a one-year, $1.1 million contract.
Ibanez, 39, must still pass a physical for the deal to become official.
The Yankees had looked at several veteran names on the DH market including Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, but they felt Ibanez was a stronger option in the outfield in the event that one of their regulars lands on the disabled list during the season.
“I’m not saying a quality defender,” Cashman said Sunday. “I’m saying someone that, for an extended period of time, can still provide some kind of defensive component to protect us in the event we have injuries.”
At least Cashman’s not expecting quality defense out of Ibanez.
I am trying to find ways to make me think Ibanez may still have something left in the tank, so I did a quick and dirty study of players who had 400 or more PA in their age 39 and age 40 seasons. Since last year was Ibanez’s age 39 year, what the players did at age 40 might give us some idea of the feasibility of him having a better year.
The first thing that surprised me in doing this was how few players had 400 PA seasons at both ages 39 and 40. Here’s the complete list going back to 1901.
Andres Galarraga
Carl Yastrzemski
Craig Biggio
Darrell Evans
Dave Parker
Dave Winfield
Eddie Murray
Edgar Martinez
George Brett
Graig Nettles
Honus Wagner
Jake Daubert
Jeff Kent
Jimmy Ryan
Joe Morgan
Johnny Cooney
Kenny Lofton
Lave Cross
Luke Appling
Nap Lajoie
Omar Vizquel
Paul Molitor
Pete Rose
Rabbit Maranville
Rafael Palmeiro
Reggie Jackson
Rickey Henderson
Sam Rice
Steve Finley
Wade Boggs
Willie Mays
There’s a total of 31 players here.
The next thing I did was match the PA for the ages 39 and 40 years to force each player to contribute equally to both samples. To do that I just took the minimum PA of the two seasons and pro-rated the larger sample to that number of PA. So for example, Steve Finley had 706 PA in his age 39 season and 440 in his age 40 season. I pro-rated that age 39 season to 440 PA.
So how did the two sets of seasons compare?
| Age | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | GDP | SB | CS | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BR/650 |
| 39 | 15803 | 13928 | 1987 | 3938 | 691 | 95 | 360 | 1824 | 1523 | 1644 | 110 | 262 | 291 | 115 | .283 | .352 | .424 | .776 | 84 |
| 40 | 15803 | 13960 | 1882 | 3818 | 688 | 92 | 330 | 1723 | 1517 | 1718 | 84 | 244 | 243 | 101 | .274 | .343 | .407 | .750 | 79 |
BR: Linear weights batting runs pro-rated to 650 PA
I should note that I haven’t accounted for park or league changes that may be partially responsible for some of the differences between the two seasons, and I haven’t messed with run environments.
It’s probably not surprising to see a collective decline in the age 40 season, somewhere on the order of about five runs or about a half a win over a full season. Of the 31 players in this group, 17 declined in terms of BR/650 and 14 improved. Here’s a case by case look.
| Player | Year | Age | Tm | Lg | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BR/650 | 39 -> 40 | Delta |
| Willie Mays | 1970 | 39 | SFG | NL | 566 | .291 | .390 | .506 | .897 | 105 | Improved | 6 |
| Willie Mays | 1971 | 40 | SFG | NL | 537 | .271 | .425 | .482 | .907 | 112 | ||
| Wade Boggs | 1997 | 39 | NYY | AL | 407 | .292 | .371 | .397 | .768 | 82 | Declined | -5 |
| Wade Boggs | 1998 | 40 | TBD | AL | 483 | .280 | .348 | .400 | .748 | 77 | ||
| Steve Finley | 2004 | 39 | TOT | NL | 706 | .271 | .329 | .490 | .819 | 89 | Declined | -30 |
| Steve Finley | 2005 | 40 | LAA | AL | 440 | .222 | .270 | .374 | .645 | 60 | ||
| Sam Rice | 1929 | 39 | WSH | AL | 694 | .323 | .372 | .424 | .795 | 87 | Improved | 9 |
| Sam Rice | 1930 | 40 | WSH | AL | 668 | .349 | .397 | .457 | .854 | 96 | ||
| Rickey Henderson | 1998 | 39 | OAK | AL | 670 | .236 | .375 | .347 | .721 | 85 | Improved | 23 |
| Rickey Henderson | 1999 | 40 | NYM | NL | 526 | .315 | .422 | .466 | .888 | 108 | ||
| Reggie Jackson | 1985 | 39 | CAL | AL | 541 | .252 | .360 | .487 | .847 | 95 | Declined | -10 |
| Reggie Jackson | 1986 | 40 | CAL | AL | 517 | .241 | .379 | .408 | .787 | 85 | ||
| Rafael Palmeiro | 2004 | 39 | BAL | AL | 651 | .258 | .359 | .436 | .796 | 87 | Declined | -2 |
| Rafael Palmeiro | 2005 | 40 | BAL | AL | 422 | .266 | .339 | .447 | .786 | 85 | ||
| Rabbit Maranville | 1931 | 39 | BSN | NL | 636 | .260 | .321 | .317 | .637 | 61 | Declined | -13 |
| Rabbit Maranville | 1932 | 40 | BSN | NL | 635 | .235 | .288 | .284 | .572 | 47 | ||
| Pete Rose | 1980 | 39 | PHI | NL | 735 | .282 | .350 | .354 | .704 | 70 | Improved | 12 |
| Pete Rose | 1981 | 40 | PHI | NL | 484 | .325 | .390 | .390 | .780 | 82 | ||
| Paul Molitor | 1996 | 39 | MIN | AL | 728 | .341 | .390 | .468 | .858 | 98 | Declined | -13 |
| Paul Molitor | 1997 | 40 | MIN | AL | 597 | .305 | .350 | .435 | .785 | 85 | ||
| Omar Vizquel | 2006 | 39 | SFG | NL | 659 | .295 | .354 | .389 | .742 | 78 | Declined | -25 |
| Omar Vizquel | 2007 | 40 | SFG | NL | 575 | .246 | .297 | .316 | .613 | 53 | ||
| Nap Lajoie | 1914 | 39 | CLE | AL | 468 | .258 | .303 | .305 | .609 | 49 | Improved | 10 |
| Nap Lajoie | 1915 | 40 | PHA | AL | 520 | .280 | .292 | .355 | .647 | 58 | ||
| Luke Appling | 1946 | 39 | CHW | AL | 659 | .309 | .381 | .378 | .759 | 79 | Improved | 7 |
| Luke Appling | 1947 | 40 | CHW | AL | 572 | .306 | .383 | .412 | .794 | 86 | ||
| Lave Cross | 1905 | 39 | PHA | AL | 630 | .266 | .292 | .332 | .624 | 57 | Improved | 1 |
| Lave Cross | 1906 | 40 | WSH | AL | 538 | .263 | .294 | .322 | .616 | 58 | ||
| Kenny Lofton | 2006 | 39 | LAD | NL | 522 | .301 | .356 | .403 | .759 | 83 | Improved | 3 |
| Kenny Lofton | 2007 | 40 | TOT | AL | 559 | .296 | .363 | .414 | .777 | 86 | ||
| Johnny Cooney | 1940 | 39 | BSN | NL | 404 | .318 | .351 | .373 | .724 | 73 | Improved | 2 |
| Johnny Cooney | 1941 | 40 | BSN | NL | 478 | .319 | .351 | .385 | .736 | 75 | ||
| Joe Morgan | 1983 | 39 | PHI | NL | 504 | .230 | .369 | .403 | .773 | 88 | Declined | -14 |
| Joe Morgan | 1984 | 40 | OAK | AL | 438 | .244 | .356 | .351 | .707 | 74 | ||
| Jimmy Ryan | 1902 | 39 | WSH | AL | 540 | .320 | .380 | .448 | .828 | 96 | Declined | -32 |
| Jimmy Ryan | 1903 | 40 | WSH | AL | 474 | .249 | .283 | .373 | .656 | 64 | ||
| Jeff Kent | 2007 | 39 | LAD | NL | 562 | .302 | .375 | .500 | .875 | 100 | Declined | -24 |
| Jeff Kent | 2008 | 40 | LAD | NL | 474 | .280 | .327 | .418 | .745 | 76 | ||
| Jake Daubert | 1923 | 39 | CIN | NL | 556 | .292 | .342 | .398 | .740 | 74 | Declined | -12 |
| Jake Daubert | 1924 | 40 | CIN | NL | 448 | .281 | .321 | .368 | .689 | 62 | ||
| Honus Wagner | 1913 | 39 | PIT | NL | 454 | .300 | .341 | .385 | .726 | 74 | Declined | -13 |
| Honus Wagner | 1914 | 40 | PIT | NL | 616 | .252 | .312 | .317 | .629 | 61 | ||
| Graig Nettles | 1984 | 39 | SDP | NL | 465 | .228 | .329 | .413 | .742 | 76 | Improved | 9 |
| Graig Nettles | 1985 | 40 | SDP | NL | 515 | .261 | .363 | .420 | .784 | 85 | ||
| George Brett | 1992 | 39 | KCR | AL | 637 | .285 | .330 | .397 | .727 | 73 | Improved | 3 |
| George Brett | 1993 | 40 | KCR | AL | 612 | .266 | .312 | .434 | .746 | 76 | ||
| Edgar Martinez | 2002 | 39 | SEA | AL | 407 | .277 | .403 | .485 | .888 | 104 | Declined | -1 |
| Edgar Martinez | 2003 | 40 | SEA | AL | 603 | .294 | .406 | .489 | .895 | 103 | ||
| Eddie Murray | 1995 | 39 | CLE | AL | 480 | .323 | .375 | .516 | .891 | 104 | Declined | -27 |
| Eddie Murray | 1996 | 40 | TOT | AL | 637 | .260 | .327 | .417 | .743 | 77 | ||
| Dave Winfield | 1991 | 39 | CAL | AL | 633 | .262 | .325 | .472 | .797 | 86 | Improved | 13 |
| Dave Winfield | 1992 | 40 | TOR | AL | 670 | .290 | .376 | .491 | .867 | 99 | ||
| Dave Parker | 1990 | 39 | MIL | AL | 669 | .289 | .330 | .451 | .781 | 81 | Declined | -21 |
| Dave Parker | 1991 | 40 | TOT | AL | 541 | .239 | .288 | .365 | .653 | 60 | ||
| Darrell Evans | 1986 | 39 | DET | AL | 601 | .241 | .356 | .442 | .798 | 88 | Improved | 14 |
| Darrell Evans | 1987 | 40 | DET | AL | 609 | .257 | .378 | .501 | .879 | 102 | ||
| Craig Biggio | 2005 | 39 | HOU | NL | 651 | .264 | .323 | .468 | .790 | 89 | Declined | -15 |
| Craig Biggio | 2006 | 40 | HOU | NL | 607 | .246 | .303 | .422 | .725 | 74 | ||
| Carl Yastrzemski | 1979 | 39 | BOS | AL | 590 | .270 | .346 | .450 | .796 | 86 | Improved | 2 |
| Carl Yastrzemski | 1980 | 40 | BOS | AL | 412 | .275 | .350 | .462 | .811 | 88 | ||
| Andres Galarraga | 2000 | 39 | ATL | NL | 548 | .302 | .369 | .526 | .895 | 102 | Declined | -19 |
| Andres Galarraga | 2001 | 40 | TOT | ML | 445 | .256 | .326 | .459 | .784 | 84 |
39->40: Denotes if a player improved or declined in his age 40 season.
Delta: Difference in BR/650 between age 39-40
Lastly, here’s a look at each player sorted from best improvement to worst decline.
| Player | 39 -> 40 | Delta |
| Rickey Henderson | Improved | 23 |
| Darrell Evans | Improved | 14 |
| Dave Winfield | Improved | 13 |
| Pete Rose | Improved | 12 |
| Nap Lajoie | Improved | 10 |
| Sam Rice | Improved | 9 |
| Graig Nettles | Improved | 9 |
| Luke Appling | Improved | 7 |
| Willie Mays | Improved | 6 |
| George Brett | Improved | 3 |
| Kenny Lofton | Improved | 3 |
| Carl Yastrzemski | Improved | 2 |
| Johnny Cooney | Improved | 2 |
| Lave Cross | Improved | 1 |
| Edgar Martinez | Declined | -1 |
| Rafael Palmeiro | Declined | -2 |
| Wade Boggs | Declined | -5 |
| Reggie Jackson | Declined | -10 |
| Jake Daubert | Declined | -12 |
| Paul Molitor | Declined | -13 |
| Honus Wagner | Declined | -13 |
| Rabbit Maranville | Declined | -13 |
| Joe Morgan | Declined | -14 |
| Craig Biggio | Declined | -15 |
| Andres Galarraga | Declined | -19 |
| Dave Parker | Declined | -21 |
| Jeff Kent | Declined | -24 |
| Omar Vizquel | Declined | -25 |
| Eddie Murray | Declined | -27 |
| Steve Finley | Declined | -30 |
| Jimmy Ryan | Declined | -32 |
Basically, Ibanez would have to improve by about as much as Rickey Henderson did between ages 39-40 to be a better than replacement level DH. I’m not going to hold my breath waiting for that to happen.
But you never know.
Sunday, February 19, 2012
NY Post: Damon not coming back to Yankees
Once the discussion moves to Uma Thurman’s gnarled feet, it’s a good time for a new post.
According to Damon, he isn’t returning to the Yankees as a free agent.
“We both are looking at other options now,’’ Damon told The Post Saturday and called it “unfortunate.’‘
According to GM Brian Cashman, Damon contacted the club.
“He called and I told him the truth. He is not the No. 1 option if and when I turn to DH options,’’ Cashman said.
The Yankees closing the door on Damon means Raul Ibanez is the prohibitive favorite for the left-handed DH spot they talked to Damon about.
It’s probably even money that Ibanez would perform as well or better than Damon as the left-handed half of a DH platoon. I think in the event of needing the DH to play defense and in terms of base running Damon’s a better bet to provide value. It’s worth noting that even though I think that, Damon’s played 52 games in the outfield over the last two seasons and Ibanez has played 279. Not well, but that’s a pretty big gap.
I’ll reserve judgement until I see the price the Yankees sign Ibanez for, but I have a feeling that Ibanez will be the cheaper player to sign, and I also think he’d be an easier player to get rid of if if last year wasn’t just a bad year and was indicative of the actual end of his days as a useful hitter. Damon can pretend that the Yankees are the bad guys for not wanting to sign him on his terms, but if he really wanted to come back to the Yankees I’m pretty sure he could have set his price to make it happen.
Of course, it’s his right to maximize his earnings if he can, so I don’t have any issue with him setting his price in that way.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
MLB Buzz: Burnett talks remain at impasse
Forget the Burnett part since we’ve got that covered. This is the point that I want to focus on.
If a deal is completed, the Yankees plan to move quickly to sign free-agent designated hitter Raul Ibanez and infielder Eric Chavez, sources said. One or both of those signings could occur even if Burnett is not moved.
This seems stupid to me. I’ve made no secret about the fact that I don’t think Chavez is a viable insurance policy for an Alex Rodriguez injury, and I don’t see what Ibanez brings that Russell Branyan doesn’t.
If they offer guaranteed money to either player, they’re idiots.
Why do I expect them to offer guaranteed money to both? No, it’s not likely to be a lot of money, but for a team that is pinching pennies and might need to upgrade in-season, I don’t see the point.
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
NY Mag: Better Know a Yankee: Bill Hall (with Russell Branyan update)
Anyway, it’s a minor deal — non-guaranteed, with a chance to reach $600,000 if he makes the team — that will hinge mostly on whether the Yankees bring back Eric Chavez. Hall, as Joe Sheehan pointed out in his invaluable newsletter yesterday, is basically a cheaper version of Chone Figgins, a player he had recommended for the Yankees earlier. (He’d also, intriguingly, suggested seeing whether the White Sox would do an Adam Dunn–A.J. Burnett swap, straight up.) Hall will probably make the team, but it’s too early to tell. Also, pitchers and catchers report in eleven days.
I don’t see the sense in bringing back Chavez at this point, although a Hall/Chavez platoon at 3B in the event of Alex Rodriguez missing some time is probably better than just having Hall.
| Player | Bats | PA | Projected wOBA | Vs L | Vs R | lRV | rRV | RV |
| Bill Hall | R | 300 | .293 | .307 | .287 | 10 | 16 | 26 |
| Player | Bats | PA | Projected wOBA | Vs L | Vs R | lRV | rRV | RV |
| Bill Hall | R | 100 | .293 | .307 | .287 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| Eric Chavez | L | 200 | .295 | .264 | .308 | 0 | 20 | 18 |
| Total | 300 | 10 | 20 | 28 |
Vs L: Regressed projected wOBA vs. LHP.
Vs R: Regressed projected wOBA vs. RHP.
lRV: Run value vs. LHP
rRV: Run value vs. RHP
RV: Total run value
The difference between CAIRO’s platoon split wOBA projections in 300 PA of Hall vs. a 200 PA Chavez/100 PA Hall platoon is two runs.
On the other hand, the difference between 200 PA of Chavez vs. RHP and some of the remaining potential DH candidates looks like this.
| Player | Bats | PA | Projected wOBA | Vs L | Vs R | RAC |
| Russell Branyan | L | 200 | .353 | .324 | .360 | 9 |
| Raul Ibanez | L | 200 | .350 | .324 | .359 | 9 |
| J.D. Drew | L | 200 | .345 | .315 | .355 | 8 |
| Johnny Damon | L | 200 | .340 | .324 | .346 | 7 |
| Hideki Matsui | L | 200 | .337 | .323 | .343 | 6 |
| Eric Chavez | L | 200 | .295 | .264 | .308 | 0 |
RAC: Runs above Chavez over 200 PA vs. RHP.
CAIRO may be bullish on Ibanez considering how bad his 2011 was and given his age, but it seems to me the Yankees would be better off signing any one of the people on this list ahead of Chavez to DH. I wouldn’t be opposed to an NRI invite for Chavez in case Hall doesn’t make the team out of spring training, but I’d be surprised if Chavez would accept that if he’s considering retirement.
I get the feeling the Yankees will wind up with Ibanez as their LH DH although Russell Branyan seems like the best pure hitting candidate. Damon’s probably wants a full-time job and more money than the Yankees are willing to spend, and the other candidates have issues with age and health.
Update:Apparently the Yankees agree with me on Branyan after all.
NY Post: Yankees sign Branyan to minor league deal
The Yankees agreed to sign Russell Branyan to a minor league deal with an invitation to major league spring training Wednesday.
The move does not impact the team’s chances of adding another lefty bat and they remain in the hunt for Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Raul Ibanez.
But Branyan’s presence could make things more difficult for Eric Chavez, since the 36-year-old can play both corner infield positions.
I guess that’s technically true, although Branyan played 276 innings at 3B in 2008 and has played 3 innings there since.
Update Part Deux: Branyan’s CAIRO percentile forecasts
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAR |
| 80% | 407 | 355 | 53 | 96 | 23 | 1 | 26 | 62 | 4 | 0 | 55 | 99 | 3 | 6 | .271 | .387 | .568 | .412 | 75 | 22 |
| 65% | 373 | 325 | 45 | 84 | 19 | 1 | 22 | 53 | 3 | 0 | 47 | 96 | 4 | 4 | .257 | .363 | .523 | .383 | 61 | 12 |
| Baseline | 339 | 296 | 38 | 72 | 16 | 0 | 18 | 45 | 2 | 0 | 40 | 92 | 5 | 3 | .243 | .338 | .479 | .353 | 48 | 4 |
| 35% | 305 | 266 | 32 | 61 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 87 | 5 | 2 | .228 | .314 | .434 | .324 | 37 | -3 |
| 20% | 271 | 237 | 26 | 51 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 31 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 81 | 5 | 1 | .214 | .289 | .389 | .295 | 27 | -8 |
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
| % | wOBA vs L | wOBA vs R |
| 80% | .377 | .420 |
| 65% | .350 | .390 |
| Baseline | .324 | .360 |
| 35% | .297 | .331 |
| 20% | .271 | .301 |
I approve.
Monday, February 6, 2012
TGS NY: Source: Yanks look at adding bat
The New York Yankees are considering adding a left-handed bat, and one of the three most prominent remaining free agents—Raul Ibanez, Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui—could be on the team within a week, according to a major league source.
No word on whether the source is the agent for one of the three.
I’m fine with any of them, I guess. I don’t know that any one of them is a clear bet to outperform the others, particularly given the limited role and playing time. But I do think they all are probably a better choice to DH vs. RHP than Andruw Jones. I suppose Damon is the one who could do the most convincing imitation of a fielder if the need occurred.
It’s unfortunate that budget constraints have prevented the Yankees from making a real impact signing or trade for DH. If only they had some set of money in the range of $10-14M over each of the next two seasons that they could have allocated towards it.
If only.
Saturday, February 4, 2012
NY Post: Girardi says Yankees need some more offense
“I think it will be helpful,” Girardi said of potentially adding another hitter. “I think we’ve had a good offseason, [but] I think it’s important to our club that you add that other bat.”
General manager Brian Cashman is looking for a designated hitter to replace recently traded Jesus Montero. Former Yankees Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui are among the free-agent possibilities.
“Johnny has been a great player for a long time,” Girardi said. “There’s been a bunch of names talked about, and they’re all good players. [Raul] Ibanez, he’s had a great career, and Matsui has had a great career. Obviously, we know what Johnny and [Matsui] have meant to this organization and Ibanez has had success wherever he’s been. ...”
Well, except when he started out in Seattle. But that was like 12 years ago - he’s just hitting his stride now.
Friday, January 27, 2012
NY Post: Yankees interested in Ibanez
The Yankees have interest in lefty hitting Raul Ibanez, according to sources. Ibanez’s average dropped to .245 last season with the Phillies, but he hit 20 home runs and drove in 84 runs. Ibanez, who will turn 40 in June, has drawn interest from a number of clubs.
Ibanez recently had a productive workout with hitting guru Rudy Jaramillo and believes he has corrected flaws in his swing. Over the past six seasons, he averaged 24 home runs and 100 RBIs.
The Yankees are not expected to pursue Cuban defector Yoennis Cespedes.
When the Yankees are “not expected” to do something, they usually end up doing it.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Newsday: Jack Cust, Vladimir Guerrero, Raul Ibañez reach out to Yankees
The representatives for Jack Cust, Vladimir Guerrero and Raul Ibañez have reached out to the Yankees, according to a person with knowledge of the situation, joining a list of applicants that also includes former Yankees Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui and former Yankees minor-leaguer Carlos Peña.
I have a feeling that it doesn’t matter much how either Cust or Guerrero project at this point as I doubt the Yankees consider them realistic options. The same probably goes for Ibanez, but maybe SG can add them to the free agency RAJ list from an earlier thread if he deems it interesting enough.
Monday, January 16, 2012
How Should The Yankees Replace Jesus Montero at DH?
Upgrading the rotation came at the cost of losing the Yankees’ starting DH and top hitting prospect. As a fan, I’m bummed about losing Montero because of the emotional tie I’ve built up as he’s progressed through the Yankee system. I think the trade was fair and I understand why it was made, but it’s still a disappointment. But press on, we must.
We really don’t know how good Montero is right now and how good he’ll be in the future. Here were the ranges of his CAIRO projections as a Yankee DH heading into 2012.
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAR |
| 80% | 695 | 636 | 86 | 184 | 41 | 3 | 37 | 104 | 4 | 0 | 61 | 113 | 11 | 6 | .289 | .362 | .536 | .387 | 115 | 25 |
| 65% | 637 | 583 | 75 | 162 | 35 | 2 | 31 | 91 | 3 | 0 | 52 | 109 | 12 | 5 | .278 | .344 | .503 | .365 | 95 | 13 |
| Baseline | 579 | 530 | 64 | 141 | 29 | 1 | 25 | 78 | 2 | 1 | 44 | 104 | 13 | 4 | .267 | .327 | .470 | .344 | 78 | 3 |
| 35% | 521 | 477 | 54 | 122 | 23 | 1 | 21 | 66 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 99 | 13 | 2 | .256 | .309 | .438 | .323 | 62 | -6 |
| 20% | 463 | 424 | 45 | 104 | 19 | 0 | 16 | 55 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 92 | 13 | 1 | .245 | .292 | .405 | .301 | 48 | -12 |
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
It wouldn’t have surprised me to see Montero up near that 80% forecast, but for now he doesn’t project that way in his baseline projection.
Here’s how the range of projected wOBA’s would have looked broken down into platoon splits.
| % | wOBA vs L | wOBA vs R |
| 80% | .402 | .377 |
| 65% | .380 | .356 |
| Baseline | .358 | .335 |
| 35% | .335 | .314 |
| 20% | .313 | .294 |
The in-house solution for DH is probably Andruw Jones. Here’s how he projects over the same number of PA.
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAR |
| 80% | 695 | 599 | 94 | 147 | 35 | 3 | 37 | 103 | 12 | 1 | 97 | 155 | 13 | 9 | .245 | .364 | .497 | .376 | 109 | 19 |
| 65% | 637 | 549 | 81 | 129 | 29 | 2 | 31 | 90 | 9 | 2 | 84 | 148 | 14 | 7 | .234 | .345 | .464 | .354 | 90 | 7 |
| Baseline | 579 | 499 | 70 | 112 | 24 | 1 | 26 | 77 | 7 | 2 | 72 | 141 | 15 | 5 | .224 | .327 | .431 | .332 | 72 | -3 |
| 35% | 521 | 449 | 59 | 96 | 20 | 1 | 21 | 66 | 5 | 3 | 61 | 132 | 15 | 4 | .213 | .308 | .398 | .311 | 57 | -11 |
| 20% | 463 | 399 | 49 | 81 | 15 | 0 | 16 | 55 | 4 | 3 | 51 | 122 | 15 | 2 | .202 | .290 | .365 | .289 | 43 | -17 |
And here are his projected wOBA platoon splits.
| % | wOBA vs L | wOBA vs R |
| 80% | .394 | .369 |
| 65% | .371 | .348 |
| Baseline | .348 | .327 |
| 35% | .326 | .305 |
| 20% | .303 | .284 |
The Yankees would lose about six runs over a full season if Jones replaced Montero at DH. That’s sub-optimal, but it puts them ahead of where they were before making the trade for Michael Pineda and signing Hiroki Kuroda. Maybe two or three wins ahead depending on how the innings for the rotation get allocated. They’d probably project in the 95-96 win range if they do nothing else before spring training.
The Yankees do have options to upgrade DH. Last year, the Yankees faced LHP in 29% of their plate appearances and the DH got 646 PA in total. A similar split would mean 187 PA for DH vs. LHP. The difference between Montero’s and Jones’s baseline wOBA projection vs. LHP would be worth a loss of about two runs over that number of PA.
That’s small enough that I think between Jones, Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter (I know, but he’s better against LHP) they have enough for the right-handed portion of a platoon DH.
So what about the other, more important side? Here are the options still in free agency.
| Player | Bats | Projected wOBA | Vs L | Vs R | RAJ |
| Carlos Pena | L | .365 | .331 | .379 | 21 |
| Russell Branyan | L | .353 | .324 | .360 | 13 |
| Wilson Betemit | L | .352 | .323 | .361 | 14 |
| Raul Ibanez | L | .350 | .324 | .359 | 13 |
| J.D. Drew | L | .345 | .315 | .355 | 11 |
| Johnny Damon | L | .340 | .324 | .346 | 8 |
| Hideki Matsui | L | .337 | .323 | .343 | 6 |
| Kosuke Fukudome | L | .331 | .305 | .337 | 4 |
| Eric Chavez | L | .295 | .264 | .308 | -8 |
RAJ: Runs above Andruw Jones (vs RHP over 459 PA)
Assuming the left-handed half of the DH platoon would see 459 PA here are how some of the various options project as Yankees. If you want to replace Montero’s baseline projection, you need eight RAJ, since you’ve lost two runs from the vs LHP part of DH. Then you’re effectively where you were before trading Montero.
Carlos Pena is head and shoulders above the field, and if this number is accurate he’s probably worth something like $8-10M. I don’t know if the Yankees are willing to spend that much, which means someone from the Branyan/Betemit/Ibanez/Drew group would be the next best option. I’d assume Branyan would be the cheapest of the group, but if they want to spend more they should probably go after Betemit since he can play 3B (not well) in the likely scenario that Alex Rodriguez misses some time. The nostalgia of bringing back Damon or Matsui would be kind of cool, but not the optimal way to proceed IMO.
I think they should make a play for Pena first and foremost. If not Betemit is my second choice. Then I don’t really have a preference.
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