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Monday, April 2, 2012

Looking Ahead to 2012 - Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia

Ivan Nova

Time to double up on these with Opening Day fast approaching.  I’m hoping to have my projected standings up tomorrow, so today we’ll round out the rest of the opening day rotation by looking at Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia.

After a decent showing in his 2010 MLB debut, albeit one with shaky peripherals, Ivan Nova earned a spot in the Yankee rotation to start 2011.  Nova’s main calling card as a prospect was his fastball velocity, but until 2009 he hadn’t really shown the type of performance you’d like to see in a pitching prospect.

Because of that track record, his projections heading into the season weren’t pretty.

projecton	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR	BABIP
cairo	22	116	130	72	67	15	49	72	5.59	5.20	5.04	5	0.5	.303
marcel	17	71	69	35	32	7	26	52	4.44	4.06	4.20	12	1.2	.287
oliver	37	155	170	90	82	18	69	97	5.24	4.79	4.80	13	1.3	.302
pecota	20	119	136	75	69	15	53	66	5.68	5.23	5.19	4	0.4	.303
zips	28	150	170	94	88	19	69	88	5.65	5.29	5.18	5	0.5	.304
average*	25	122	135	73	68	15	53	75	5.40	4.99	4.97	8	0.8	.301
2010	33	187	179	72	67	14	65	141	3.47	3.22	3.74	52	5.2	.291
2011	27	159	155	70	64	13	57	95	3.96	3.62	4.14	35	3.5	.279

RA/ERA: Runs/Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher(park and role-adjusted, using RA)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play

The 2010 line includes his minor league performance so ignore that RSAR/WAR.  As you can see Nova exceeded just about every projection in 2011.

2011
So was Nova lucky?  Probably a bit, but we do have some evidence of genuine development.  For the majority of pitchers, their effectiveness ties directly into their command of the strike zone.  It’s the reason Mariano Rivera has been the best closer of all time, for example.  You can look at the percentage of batters a pitcher walks and strikes out (and or their K/BB ratio) as a proxy for strike zone command.  But don’t just take my word for it.

The fear with Nova, and the primary reason he didn’t get much respect among more statistically inclined analysts was that he had walked about 7.7% of the batters he’d faced in the minors while striking out 16.8%, a K/BB ratio of 2.19.  You can be a useful pitcher in MLB with a K/BB ratio like that in MLB, but translating that from the minors doesn’t give you much of a margin of error. 

In 2011, Nova walked 8.1% of the batters he faced and struck out 13.9%.  His K/BB ratio of 1.72 was less than stellar, and although he had a decent FIP of 4.01 it was buoyed by a lower than average HR/FB rate, a particularly impressive achievement in DNYS.

That’s not to say it’s all doom and gloom for Nova.  Even his xFIP, which corrects for HR/FB rate, was a more than respectable 4.16, which is fine for a middle of the rotation guy.  In addition to that, if we go a little deeper into his numbers we can find evidence of the aforementioned genuine development.  In this case it’s in his splits through May 28, and his splits afterwards.  Why that date?  That’s the date his slider appeared to become another weapon.

dates	ip	bf	h	hr	bb	k	ra	era	fip	xfip
4/4-5/28	54	246	62	4	24	27	5.50	4.67	4.37	4.96
6/3-9/25	105	431	93	9	33	68	3.17	3.09	3.83	4.01

Dates	fb%	gb%	ld%	bb/bf	k/bf	babip	hr/fb
4/4-5/28	28.4%	54.2%	17.4%	9.8%	11.0%	.312	7.4%
6/3-9/25	29.3%	51.5%	19.1%	7.7%	15.8%	.267	9.5%

bf: batters faced
fip: Fielding independent pitching
xfip: Expected fip (uses league average hr/fb rate instead of actual hr)
fb% Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
gb% Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
ld% Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
bb/bf: walks per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
babip: batting average on balls in play

Nova’s ERA/RA was still a bit better than you’d expect from his peripherals post-slider, but they support the notion that Nova can be a capable starting pitcher in MLB.  We always want to be cautious about drawing large meaning from small samples, but changes in walk rate and strikeout rate stabilize more quickly than changes in most other stats, for both pitchers and hitters.

So what about 2012?

2012 Projections

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	129	135	71	65	15	52	80	4.93	4.50	4.52	17	1.7
davenport	132	131	62	61	13	50	79	4.24	4.17	4.33	27	2.7
marcel	144	138	65	59	12	49	98	4.06	3.69	3.85	27	2.7
oliver	170	178	89	81	16	63	103	4.74	4.30	4.23	21	2.1
pecota	156	177	96	87	18	62	90	5.53	5.03	4.64	8	0.8
steamer	165	174	93	85	15	68	102	5.08	4.61	4.27	12	1.2
zips	178	189	94	88	20	60	111	4.74	4.44	4.33	20	2.0
average	153	160	81	75	15	58	95	4.76	4.39	4.31	19	1.9
2011	165	163	74	68	13	57	98	4.03	3.71	3.98	35	3.5

RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)

For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.

I’ve included his 2011 and the league average as frames of reference.  League average is based on role (starters vs. relievers), and is not adjusted for park so unlike with hitters mentally adjust that up a bit.

The consensus now is that Nova can be a bit better than league average, particularly if you give him a full starter’s workload.  That’s a big step up from his projections entering last year and that’s probably a solid #3 in an average MLB rotation, at a cost-controlled salary.  I think his 16-4 record in 2011 may lead the MSM and some fans to overrate him, but that’s not his fault.  You’d have to imagine the Yankees hope to see him more like a #5 should they get a healthy and effective Phil Hughes and Michael Pineda this year, but I don’t really like the odds of both of those things happening right now.

CAIRO Percentile Forecasts

%	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
80%	194	186	94	85	16	67	133	4.34	3.94	3.84	38	3.8
65%	168	168	87	79	16	62	110	4.64	4.22	4.18	27	2.7
Baseline	129	135	71	65	15	52	80	4.93	4.50	4.51	17	1.7
35%	103	113	60	55	13	44	60	5.22	4.78	4.84	10	1.0
20%	90	103	55	51	13	41	50	5.52	5.06	5.17	6	0.6

CAIRO is actually less sanguine on Nova than the average projection, but that 65% forecast is probably about what you’d expect if he were to repeat his 2011 with a bit less of the good fortune in HR/FB rate and BABIP.

I’d probably be more worried about Nova’s 6.86 spring training ERA if he hadn’t walked one hitter and struck out 14 of them.  But since he has, I’m not.  He may end up out of the rotation if everyone is healthy and effective this year, but that never really happens.

Freddy Garcia

I have to admit I expected nothing out of either Freddy Garcia or Bartolo Colon last year.  At this point it seems like Garcia is superfluous, but at the time he was signed the Yankee rotation was CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Ivan Nova and 2011 Phil Hughes.  That the Yankees subsequently added three pitchers who are probably better options for the rotation than Garcia isn’t his fault, and I’ve seen no evidence that he hasn’t acted professionally even though his short and long-term role on the Yankees has been in doubt.  With Michael Pineda out with tendinitis and Andy Pettitte working his way back from retirement, Garcia will open the year in the rotation.

2010 & 2011 Projections

projecton	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR	BABIP
cairo	31	31	32	17	16	4	11	22	4.94	4.65	4.62	2	0.2	.292
marcel	25	144	152	76	72	18	44	91	4.75	4.50	4.54	12	1.2	.291
oliver	18	101	111	63	60	15	29	62	5.64	5.35	4.76	-2	-0.2	.294
pecota	20	109	119	63	58	17	33	68	5.23	4.81	4.97	3	0.3	.291
zips	15	82	90	47	44	12	23	51	5.16	4.83	4.77	3	0.3	.295
average*	22	93	101	53	50	13	28	59	5.14	4.82	4.75	4	0.4	.292
2010	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	#DIV/0!	####	######	#####	#####	#####
2011	25	141	146	63	59	16	44	93	4.03	3.77	4.29	23	2.3	.292

RA/ERA: Runs/Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher(park and role-adjusted, using RA)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play

I guess the most amazing thing is going from not pitching at all in 2010 to giving the team 141 strong innings.  His FIP is probably a better indicator of how effective Garcia actually was, but he certainly blew away every projection.

2011
Garcia doesn’t throw had anymore.  He came up throwing in the mid-90s but injuries have him sitting around 87 mph with his fastball, which has forced him to become more reliant on his secondary stuff.  In some ways he was like a less-effective Mike Mussina circa 2008.  Garcia increased his use of his split finger fastball last year, including one that was used in a physics lecture in Australia about how to curve a baseball.  He had a higher than typical percentage of runners left on base and like Nova allowed a few less HRs per fly ball than an average pitcher.  Throw in another year of aging and it’s probably a safe bet he won’t be quite as effective as last year, but here’s what the projections say.

2012 Projections

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	102	112	51	48	12	30	64	4.55	4.28	4.28	17	1.7
davenport	56	60	32	31	8	17	31	5.12	4.96	4.73	6	0.6
marcel	149	156	72	67	17	46	97	4.36	4.06	4.19	23	2.3
oliver	136	150	73	68	16	39	79	4.84	4.50	4.31	14	1.4
pecota	126	140	72	67	17	37	83	5.13	4.78	4.40	7	0.7
steamer	113	121	61	57	15	30	69	4.88	4.54	4.41	11	1.1
zips	128	143	74	69	18	40	75	5.20	4.85	4.64	8	0.8
average	116	126	63	59	15	34	71	4.87	4.57	4.42	12	1.2
2011	146	152	63	59	16	45	96	3.88	3.63	4.09	23	2.3
LgAvg	146	148	75	68	17	46	107	4.60	4.21	4.21

Not surprising that Garcia’s expected to drop across the board, although Davenport, PECOTA and ZiPS are expecting a major fall off.  Still, as the ostensible seventh starter on the team you could do worse.

CAIRO Percentile Forecasts

%	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
80%	152	152	66	62	13	36	108	3.91	3.66	3.55	37	3.7
65%	132	138	62	58	14	35	88	4.23	3.97	3.93	27	2.7
Baseline	102	112	51	48	12	30	64	4.55	4.28	4.30	17	1.7
35%	81	94	44	41	11	26	48	4.86	4.59	4.67	11	1.1
20%	71	86	41	39	11	24	39	5.18	4.89	5.03	7	0.7

I think in this case the 35% forecast is probably closer to how Garcia will perform and how often he’ll pitch.  There’s a lot of uncertainty with Andy Pettitte and Michael Pineda that could end up with the Yankees needing him more often than that though, and I’m not sure counting on a full season out of Phil Hughes is wise yet.  Garcia could still be expendable if the Yankees feel his innings can be mostly replaced by some combination of Adam Warren, David Phelps, D.J. Mitchell, Dellin Betances or Manny Banuelos, but they probably have some time to determine that.

The Yankees’ postseason hopes if they should make it by some miracle may not be affected all that much by Nova and Garcia.  You’d have to think the postseason rotation would contain some combination of CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, Michael Pineda and/or Andy Pettitte.  But you do have to get there first, and Nova and Garcia can be big parts of that.