Replacement Level Yankees Weblog

THT: More sliders, more success for Logan
(13 Comments - 5/17/2012 4:19:58 pm)

THT: 10th anniversary: Giambi’s walk-off slam
(11 Comments - 5/17/2012 3:49:43 pm)

Yankees.com: Onslaught helps Drabek drop Yankees
(23 Comments - 5/17/2012 1:06:25 pm)

Yankees (20-16) @ Blue Jays (19-18), Wednesday, May 16, 2012, 7:07pm **Game Chatter**
(45 Comments - 5/16/2012 10:52:22 pm)

Yahoo: Yankees-Blue Jays Preview
(17 Comments - 5/16/2012 6:58:05 pm)

Beyond the Box Score: A PITCHf/x Look At Eight Rookie Starters
(13 Comments - 5/16/2012 11:21:29 am)

Yankees.com: Without much help, CC handed first defeat
(14 Comments - 5/16/2012 10:22:31 am)

Yankees (20-15) @ Orioles (22-14), Tuesday, May 15, 2012, 7:05 pm
(39 Comments - 5/15/2012 10:01:33 pm)

Yankees.com: Yanks place new closer Robertson on DL
(2 Comments - 5/15/2012 6:51:35 pm)

Player A vs. Player B
(34 Comments - 5/15/2012 5:10:18 pm)


Player	Current	Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

This site is best viewed with a monitor.

Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

2012 MLB Starting Pitching Through April 24

Team IP TBF RA ERA FIP xFIP BB/BF K/BF

Nationals 104.7 401 2.15 1.72 2.03 2.85 5.5% 24.2%

Cardinals 112.0 439 2.73 2.57 3.06 3.42 5.7% 17.8%

Rangers 120.7 497 2.83 2.76 3.25 3.90 7.6% 19.1%

Pirates 86.7 354 3.01 2.8 3.10 3.86 7.3% 14.7%

Phillies 117.3 473 3.14 2.84 3.17 3.20 5.3% 20.1%

White Sox 110.7 442 3.17 3.09 3.42 3.63 7.9% 23.8%

Athletics 122.0 495 3.32 2.95 3.63 4.19 6.1% 13.3%

Marlins 100.3 414 3.50 3.41 3.30 3.51 6.5% 18.4%

Giants 107.7 439 3.59 3.51 3.66 3.80 6.8% 19.6%

Dodgers 104.7 435 3.61 3.01 3.63 3.80 9.4% 21.8%

Rays 107.3 453 3.77 3.44 4.16 4.31 9.9% 16.1%

Blue Jays 109.7 443 4.02 3.78 5.45 4.32 9.3% 13.5%

Tigers 95.3 406 4.25 3.87 3.29 3.43 6.2% 21.4%

Reds 106.0 448 4.42 3.99 3.92 4.23 6.5% 14.3%

Angels 106.0 440 4.50 4.33 4.24 3.40 5.9% 20.2%

Mariners 107.7 454 4.51 4.43 3.62 3.88 5.9% 18.3%

Mets 96.3 418 4.58 3.92 3.62 3.25 7.7% 20.8%

Indians 84.0 367 4.61 4.18 4.19 4.31 9.0% 13.9%

Astros 108.3 466 4.65 4.24 4.14 4.02 8.2% 16.7%

Diamondbacks 108.0 456 4.75 4.33 4.17 3.68 7.5% 18.4%

Cubs 106.0 455 4.75 4.25 3.42 3.63 8.8% 21.8%

Braves 101.7 430 4.78 4.16 3.80 3.99 9.1% 19.3%

Brewers 102.7 441 4.91 4.82 3.91 3.60 7.0% 21.8%

Padres 104.0 445 4.93 4.15 3.92 3.85 11.0% 19.8%

Orioles 100.3 433 5.02 4.22 4.33 4.15 9.5% 18.7%

Royals 88.0 386 5.32 4.81 4.11 4.49 11.7% 16.8%

Rockies 88.3 390 5.40 4.89 4.96 4.83 9.5% 12.6%

Red Sox 94.3 413 5.72 5.63 4.92 4.22 9.9% 17.9%

Yankees 96.3 427 6.17 5.51 4.35 3.44 6.1% 21.1%

Twins 95.0 423 7.01 6.73 5.50 4.38 6.9% 13.0%

FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
xFIP: Expected fielding-independent pitching

Twins pitching vs. the Yankees: 2-2, 6.09 RA
Twins pitching vs. the rest of the league: 3-11, 5.88 RA

Remember how the Yankees’ starting pitching was supposed to be a strength? Now they’re hoping a 40 year old who hasn’t pitched in a year can ride in and save the day.

CC should be fine. I think Nova’s a good bet for continued success thanks to the big improvement in his peripherals. Whether that makes him a 2 or a 3 I don’t know, but it’s probably safer to think he’s a 3. Kuroda will also be ok I think, but I don’t think he’s a 2 in the AL. It’d be nice if Phil Hughes wasn’t awful, because with Michael Pineda looking less and less likely to pitch this year Andy Pettitte could in theory fill one hole between Hughes and Freddy Garcia, but he can’t fill two. My guess is Garcia’s start on Saturday will be his last for this turn in the rotation.

Despite what they’ve shown to date I’d bet a reasonable amount of money the Yankees will not remain the second worst starting rotation in MLB by the end of the year. I think they have a chance to crack the top 20.

--Posted at 9:51 am by SG / 21 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

2012 MLB Offenses through April 23

Tm R/G BR/G

NYY 6.06 6.18

TEX 5.76 5.83

ATL 5.47 4.71

CLE 5.29 5.08

TOR 5.12 4.65

BOS 5.07 5.18

STL 4.94 5.15

COL 4.80 4.91

TBR 4.75 4.57

HOU 4.47 4.33

CHW 4.44 4.45

SFG 4.44 4.49

LAD 4.41 4.34

DET 4.38 3.85

ARI 4.29 4.22

MIL 4.29 4.14

BAL 4.25 4.27

LgAvg 4.20 4.24

LAA 4.19 4.02

MIA 3.80 4.01

MIN 3.71 4.04

CHC 3.65 3.01

WSN 3.62 3.87

KCR 3.56 4.20

SDP 3.53 3.41

SEA 3.53 2.96

NYM 3.50 4.12

CIN 3.31 3.36

OAK 2.89 3.09

PHI 2.82 3.13

PIT 2.00 1.87

R/G: Runs scored per game
BR/G: Linear weights batting runs per game

Yes, I realize posting this means the Yankees will not score for the next week.

--Posted at 7:52 am by SG / 38 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, April 22, 2012

How have the first two weeks of the 2012 MLB season changed team projections?

We’re roughly about 10% of the way throught the 2012 regular season, which is a pretty small sample size to make sweeping observations about how good or bad teams are. That doesn’t mean that what’s happened to this point isn’t important, because it is. I wanted to see what teams have seen the biggest shifts in their outlooks based on how they projected coming into the year compared what they have done since.

The way I looked at this involves three basic steps.

1) Get 2012 projections. In this case I’m using the average of the 2012 MLB projection blowout that I ran at the beginning of April.
2) Estimate revised team strength. For now, this is just a basic weighted average of the team’s projections heading into the year and their Pythagenpat performance to this point. I’m not making any adjustments for injuries/roster changes/etc., yet, although as we get deeper into the season I’ll probably do that.
3) Run the rest of the 2012 MLB season through my Monte Carlo simulator and see what happens. This includes a variable that alters team strength in each iteration to account for things that projections can’t account for.

Here’s what it says.

Date	4/22/2012
Iterations	100000
American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC1	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Yankees	94	68	848	718	49.0%	14.1%	24.0%	87.1%	-0.8	12	7
Rays	87	75	764	695	23.9%	15.0%	34.6%	73.5%	-2.0	-1	12
Red Sox	83	79	828	765	13.9%	11.2%	28.1%	53.1%	-7.6	-2	32
Blue Jays	81	81	780	775	11.6%	7.8%	21.4%	40.9%	-0.5	6	0
Orioles	70	92	712	812	1.6%	1.9%	6.2%	9.7%	0.1	-1	-6
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Tigers	88	74	780	730	46.6%	6.1%	17.7%	70.4%	2.9	-4	-6
Indians	86	76	779	758	33.4%	8.2%	22.3%	63.9%	3.6	12	7
White Sox	78	84	706	755	11.2%	4.4%	12.9%	28.5%	1.6	-1	-18
Royals	70	92	697	771	4.5%	0.8%	5.6%	10.9%	-4.8	-8	6
Twins	70	92	720	824	4.2%	0.9%	3.7%	8.8%	-1.6	-11	3
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	99	63	822	679	78.2%	7.4%	8.0%	93.6%	8.4	15	-24
Angels	85	77	738	667	17.0%	16.4%	28.9%	62.3%	-5.1	-3	6
Mariners	73	89	672	734	2.8%	3.2%	7.8%	13.8%	-1.5	-10	-7
Athletics	72	90	687	739	2.0%	2.8%	9.0%	13.8%	-4.1	-20	-17
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Braves	90	72	734	664	32.5%	11.3%	23.7%	67.5%	2.3	20	-2
Phillies	88	74	677	611	25.9%	12.4%	21.6%	59.9%	-1.4	-21	-17
Nationals	88	74	674	639	27.5%	10.4%	24.4%	62.3%	3.8	-8	-17
Marlins	82	80	699	672	11.3%	8.4%	18.2%	37.9%	-1.8	-8	-9
Mets	74	88	677	749	2.8%	3.0%	8.5%	14.3%	0.2	-6	-3
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Cardinals	94	68	740	662	53.9%	10.5%	16.8%	81.1%	7.2	9	-17
Brewers	86	76	700	677	21.2%	9.5%	19.0%	49.7%	1.2	1	13
Reds	84	78	699	665	18.7%	9.6%	21.5%	49.7%	-2.9	-16	5
Pirates	73	89	639	726	3.3%	1.8%	6.2%	11.3%	1.5	-29	-26
Cubs	68	94	652	757	1.8%	1.6%	2.8%	6.2%	-3.2	-4	7
Astros	66	96	607	747	1.2%	0.3%	1.2%	2.7%	1.9	3	-8
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Giants	85	77	672	649	29.6%	5.3%	14.9%	49.8%	0.6	0	2
Dodgers	83	79	649	674	22.7%	5.3%	11.1%	39.1%	8.1	8	-17
Diamondbacks	83	79	687	677	22.8%	4.3%	14.1%	41.2%	-1.3	-6	3
Rockies	81	81	751	744	20.1%	4.9%	12.6%	37.6%	-1.2	3	13
Padres	72	90	638	690	4.8%	1.4%	5.1%	11.3%	-3.5	-9	2

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: 2012 revised projected wins minus 2012 pre-season projected wins
RS+/-: 2012 revised projected runs scored minus 2012 pre-season projected runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2012 revised projected runs allowed minus 2012 pre-season projected runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Good thing for Cliff Lee he signed with the young upstart Phillies instead of the old decrepit Yankees. And remember how the Rangers and Angels looked to be neck and neck heading into the year? Yeah. The Dodgers seem to have snuck their way into the division race now, but other than that the division standings look pretty similar to how they did entering the season.

And here’s a chart that shows the changes in revised team wins projections for each team.

TM	W+/-
Rangers	8.4
Dodgers	8.1
Cardinals	7.2
Nationals	3.8
Indians	3.6
Tigers	2.9
Braves	2.3
Astros	1.9
White Sox	1.6
Pirates	1.5
Brewers	1.2
Giants	0.6
Mets	0.2
Orioles	0.1
Blue Jays	-0.5
Yankees	-0.8
Rockies	-1.2
Diamondbacks	-1.3
Phillies	-1.4
Mariners	-1.5
Twins	-1.6
Marlins	-1.8
Rays	-2.0
Reds	-2.9
Cubs	-3.2
Padres	-3.5
Athletics	-4.1
Royals	-4.8
Angels	-5.1
Red Sox	-7.6

The Rangers have been destroying the competition and look like they’re probably the best team in baseball. The Dodgers and Cardinals are the biggest positive surprises in the National League so far. The Angels are the biggest disappointment in the AL.

But the Red Sox have to be the most pleasant surprise in baseball for me.

--Posted at 9:17 am by SG / 62 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

CAIRO 2012 v1.0 and Final Pre-season MLB Standings Projection

I’ve uploaded the final pre-season 2012 CAIRO projections and projected standings. They can be downloaded here.

cairo_2012_v1.0.zip

Yeah, I know Opening Day was technically last week. Sue me.

Here are the standings and of course, the pie charts. I should be posting more projected standings from other systems later today, so I’ll save the disclaimers and explanations for after that’s all done.

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL East	NYA	96	66	848	713	52.8%	19.6%	11.1%	83.5%	86 - 106
AL East	BOS	91	71	857	751	23.7%	21.0%	16.1%	60.8%	81 - 101
AL East	TAM	91	71	765	667	22.4%	25.7%	14.9%	63.0%	81 - 101
AL East	TOR	79	83	771	793	0.8%	2.4%	3.1%	6.2%	69 - 89
AL East	BAL	70	92	736	838	0.4%	0.1%	0.5%	1.0%	60 - 80
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL Central	DET	87	75	803	741	55.2%	1.3%	10.3%	66.8%	77 - 97
AL Central	CLE	84	78	759	721	36.4%	2.4%	9.3%	48.0%	74 - 94
AL Central	CHA	74	88	699	806	3.0%	0.2%	0.8%	4.0%	64 - 84
AL Central	KC	73	89	682	754	3.6%	0.2%	0.8%	4.6%	63 - 83
AL Central	MIN	71	91	725	815	1.8%	0.0%	0.3%	2.1%	61 - 81
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL West	TEX	93	69	809	685	54.2%	12.7%	17.3%	84.1%	83 - 103
AL West	LAA	92	70	739	640	44.7%	14.3%	14.6%	73.6%	82 - 102
AL West	OAK	74	88	685	753	0.5%	0.3%	0.9%	1.7%	64 - 84
AL West	SEA	73	89	669	742	0.6%	0.0%	0.6%	1.2%	63 - 83

AL	WC1	93
AL	WC2	90

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL East	PHI	91	71	690	610	51.0%	15.1%	9.0%	75.0%	81 - 101
NL East	ATL	86	76	705	664	20.5%	16.4%	10.2%	47.1%	76 - 96
NL East	WAS	85	77	669	632	17.7%	12.8%	9.7%	40.1%	75 - 95
NL East	FLA	83	79	710	694	10.3%	8.6%	7.0%	25.9%	73 - 93
NL East	NYN	74	88	665	737	0.7%	0.8%	0.8%	2.2%	64 - 84
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL Central	STL	89	73	728	654	47.2%	11.1%	9.4%	67.7%	79 - 99
NL Central	MIL	86	76	695	646	29.2%	11.6%	11.8%	52.6%	76 - 96
NL Central	CIN	85	77	707	670	22.7%	10.8%	11.2%	44.8%	75 - 95
NL Central	PIT	71	91	653	743	0.6%	0.3%	1.0%	1.9%	61 - 81
NL Central	CHN	71	91	648	748	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.9%	61 - 81
NL Central	HOU	61	101	584	752	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	51 - 71
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL West	SF	85	77	663	634	36.5%	5.2%	10.2%	51.9%	75 - 95
NL West	ARI	84	78	692	674	33.9%	3.0%	9.2%	46.0%	74 - 94
NL West	COL	82	80	755	750	21.2%	2.9%	6.6%	30.7%	72 - 92
NL West	SD	76	86	635	674	4.1%	0.9%	1.6%	6.6%	66 - 86
NL West	LAN	75	87	622	671	4.3%	0.3%	2.5%	7.1%	65 - 85

NL	WC1	90
NL	WC2	88

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
PS%: Total percentage team qualified for the postseason (DIV + WC1 + WC2)
W 1 Std: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 7:45 am by SG / 34 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

CAIRO 2012 v0.5 and More Somewhat Useless Projected Standings

I’ve uploaded the latest version of the 2012 MLB CAIRO projections. They can be downloaded here.

The only changes from version 0.4 were moving players who were signed/traded to their new teams. I think this will probably be the last release until right before Opening Day unless I find any issues.

I figured since I’ve updated again I’d run another set of projected standings so here is what they look like.

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
AL East	NYA	97	65	844	692	54.3%	22.5%	8.0%	84.8%
AL East	TAM	92	70	772	660	23.2%	27.4%	14.1%	64.8%
AL East	BOS	92	70	862	745	22.1%	27.0%	15.3%	64.4%
AL East	TOR	78	84	758	795	0.4%	1.2%	2.6%	4.1%
AL East	BAL	70	92	734	847	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
AL Central	DET	88	74	814	741	60.7%	1.6%	12.7%	75.0%
AL Central	CLE	84	78	763	729	32.1%	0.8%	9.5%	42.4%
AL Central	CHA	74	88	705	805	3.5%	0.2%	1.0%	4.7%
AL Central	KC	74	88	687	762	3.3%	0.0%	0.8%	4.1%
AL Central	MIN	67	95	720	861	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
AL West	TEX	92	70	812	695	51.2%	8.6%	17.0%	76.8%
AL West	LAA	91	71	741	653	47.0%	9.9%	16.6%	73.5%
AL West	OAK	76	86	685	735	0.7%	0.6%	1.7%	2.9%
AL West	SEA	74	88	673	729	1.2%	0.2%	1.0%	2.4%

AL	WC1	94
AL	WC2	91

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
NL East	PHI	92	70	701	605	60.8%	12.4%	9.1%	82.2%
NL East	WAS	86	76	676	625	18.6%	18.2%	9.1%	45.8%
NL East	ATL	85	77	700	676	13.2%	12.5%	11.0%	36.7%
NL East	FLA	82	80	708	699	7.3%	8.0%	7.1%	22.3%
NL East	NYN	75	87	670	733	0.3%	1.2%	1.8%	3.2%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
NL Central	STL	90	72	737	654	47.8%	12.4%	10.3%	70.5%
NL Central	CIN	87	75	715	665	27.3%	11.6%	12.1%	51.0%
NL Central	MIL	86	76	696	645	24.6%	12.3%	11.7%	48.6%
NL Central	CHN	71	91	650	745	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.5%
NL Central	PIT	68	94	649	764	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%
NL Central	HOU	60	102	584	773	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
NL West	SF	85	77	663	630	38.1%	3.1%	8.4%	49.5%
NL West	ARI	84	78	659	634	33.5%	3.6%	8.9%	46.1%
NL West	COL	81	81	761	759	18.3%	3.0%	6.6%	27.9%
NL West	SD	76	86	633	668	5.2%	0.8%	2.2%	8.2%
NL West	LAN	75	87	621	669	4.9%	0.7%	1.8%	7.3%

NL	WC1	90
NL	WC2	88

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card

These look more realistic to me than the last set I ran with Marcel. Probably a bit high on the Yankees, but since CAIRO was created to make the Yankees look better than they are that stands to reason.

I am a bit surprised that Washington now projects better than Atlanta, even if it’s just a one game edge. The only other major differences from this and the Marcel version is St. Louis at the top of the NL Central and San Francisco and Arizona above Colorado, both of which make sense to me.

Anyway, it’s still early, this is still not that useful, etc.,

--Posted at 9:58 am by SG / 43 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, January 28, 2012

Still Too Early 2012 MLB Standings Projection

Instead of running these with CAIRO this time I used Marcel, mainly out of curiosity in seeing what an unbiased projection that was not created to make the Yankees look better than they are would say.

It says this.

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
AL East	NYA	92	70	785	682	45.3%	20.3%	10.4%	76.0%
AL East	BOS	90	72	830	750	27.9%	26.1%	10.8%	64.8%
AL East	TAM	88	74	717	646	23.7%	21.2%	12.2%	57.1%
AL East	TOR	81	81	723	727	3.0%	6.9%	6.8%	16.7%
AL East	BAL	70	92	694	806	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
AL Central	DET	84	78	747	708	43.0%	2.4%	10.1%	55.4%
AL Central	CLE	83	79	722	708	30.6%	2.9%	7.8%	41.3%
AL Central	CHA	79	83	686	703	15.2%	1.5%	4.2%	20.9%
AL Central	KC	79	83	691	714	10.8%	1.9%	4.1%	16.9%
AL Central	MIN	68	94	693	813	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
AL West	LAA	87	75	719	663	43.7%	6.1%	11.4%	61.2%
AL West	TEX	87	75	765	707	38.2%	6.9%	13.4%	58.6%
AL West	OAK	82	80	682	674	14.9%	3.1%	7.4%	25.3%
AL West	SEA	76	86	649	689	3.2%	0.7%	1.6%	5.5%

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
NL East	PHI	90	72	689	615	44.8%	16.5%	10.7%	72.0%
NL East	ATL	89	73	668	608	38.2%	19.2%	9.9%	67.3%
NL East	WAS	83	79	645	634	10.8%	10.3%	8.1%	29.2%
NL East	FLA	80	82	682	690	5.7%	5.2%	5.4%	16.3%
NL East	NYN	74	88	630	680	0.6%	1.5%	1.2%	3.2%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
NL Central	CIN	89	73	719	647	60.4%	8.4%	10.9%	79.7%
NL Central	STL	84	78	708	681	24.6%	10.7%	7.0%	42.2%
NL Central	MIL	81	81	678	672	13.1%	6.7%	7.7%	27.5%
NL Central	PIT	72	90	657	732	1.6%	0.2%	1.0%	2.8%
NL Central	CHN	70	92	668	761	0.4%	0.2%	0.4%	1.0%
NL Central	HOU	66	96	617	749	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
NL West	COL	85	77	749	711	32.1%	6.4%	10.9%	49.4%
NL West	ARI	85	77	685	656	30.8%	7.3%	10.8%	48.9%
NL West	SF	85	77	629	606	29.6%	5.4%	11.3%	46.3%
NL West	LAN	76	86	618	659	4.1%	1.5%	2.7%	8.2%
NL West	SD	75	87	608	653	3.4%	0.6%	2.5%	6.4%

Div: Percent of time team won division
WC 1: Percent of time team won first wild card
WC 2: Percent of time team won second wild card

We still don’t know if there will be a second wild card yet, so you can chop off that column and subtract that percentage from the team’s over playoff percentage.

Because Marcel regresses more heavily than other projections and because it assumes every one who hasn’t played in MLB projects as league average, you see a tighter spread here than you’ll see in other projected standings. The standard deviation for team wins in my last CAIRO projections was about 9. In this version it’s 7.1. That may be more realistic if you think about how little we really know about how good/bad players and teams are, even though what will actually happen in 2012 will show a much bigger spread more in line with other projected standings.

Here are the average win totals for the placings in each division and for the two wild cards.

Div	Place	Avg W
AL East	1	96
AL East	2	91
AL East	3	86
AL East	4	80
AL East	5	69
Div		Avg W
AL Central	1	89
AL Central	2	83
AL Central	3	79
AL Central	4	75
AL Central	5	67
Div		Avg W
AL West	1	92
AL West	2	86
AL West	3	81
AL West	4	74
AL WC 1		91
AL WC2		88
Div		Avg W
NL East	1	94
NL East	2	88
NL East	3	83
NL East	4	78
NL East	5	72
Div		Avg W
NL Central	1	92
NL Central	2	85
NL Central	3	80
NL Central	4	74
NL Central	5	69
NL Central	6	63
Div		Avg W
NL West	1	91
NL West	2	85
NL West	3	81
NL West	4	77
NL West	5	71
NL WC1		89
NL WC2		87

What this shows is that on average a team needed 96 wins to win the AL East, etc.,.

Some obvious things to consider would be:

- the difference between Yu Darvish (and other imports) and a league average pitcher
- prospects who project better than league average
- players who switched to parks that will affect their projections since Marcel does not park-adjust

Despite all that, the ordinal rankings seem reasonable. The only differences between this and CAIRO in that regard are that I have St. Louis ahead of Cincinnati and the Diamondbacks and Giants ahead of Colorado.

This is current through Francisco Cordero signing with Toronto, and assumes Prince Fielder at 1B and Miguel Cabrera playing a terrible version of 3B for Detroit in 70% of their games, and DHing in 25% of them.

--Posted at 8:19 am by SG / 25 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

CAIRO 2012 v0.3 and Some Extremely Early and Completely Useless 2012 Projected Standings

I’m releasing CAIRO 2012 v 0.3 today which mainly fixes a problem with a handful of pitchers like Alexi Ogando and Ross Ohlendorf and moves players to new teams where applicable. I figure it’d be a good time to run some projected standings even though they are too early to be of any real value.

DISCLAIMER: This is very limited in telling us much about how 2012 will play out for a large number of reasons.

1) There are still a lot of roster changes coming. This may give us some sense of how the offseason has impacted teams to this point and it also shows us how things might look if nothing changed from now until April. Which won’t happen.

2) It’s too early to construct meaningful rosters for a lot of teams, so these projections will favor the teams that have essentially completed their 2012 rosters.

3) In addition to that, projection systems are inherently limited. They are designed to estimate a player’s true talent based on what they’ve done so far and also by factoring in things like age and how similar players have performed in the past. They will generally be in the ballpark for the general population of MLB players, but they can miss significantly on individual players which can obviously affect certain teams more heavily than others.

Anyway, using the depth charts from the wonderful MLB Depth Charts and includng playing time from players on the 40 man roster who don’t necessarily figure to be part of the the opening day 25 man rosters to account for organizational depth and playing out next season 100,000 times, here’s how CAIRO v0.3 sees things as of December 13, 2011. These were run with Aramis Ramirez as a Brewer, but I didn’t remove any of the non-tendered players from yesterday from their rosters.


Date	12/13/2011
Iterations	100000
American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Yankees	94	68	862	740	59.0%	16.8%	75.9%
Red Sox	91	71	868	763	31.1%	26.1%	57.2%
Rays	85	77	717	654	9.5%	11.8%	21.4%
Blue Jays	75	87	773	817	0.3%	0.6%	0.9%
Orioles	68	94	741	853	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Tigers	89	73	780	703	54.3%	4.7%	59.0%
Indians	87	75	751	696	40.8%	5.9%	46.6%
White Sox	77	85	723	795	3.3%	1.5%	4.8%
Royals	73	89	684	760	1.6%	0.2%	1.8%
Twins	66	96	698	829	0.0%	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Rangers	93	69	812	697	58.0%	13.7%	71.6%
Angels	90	72	720	640	39.5%	16.6%	56.1%
Mariners	77	85	653	668	2.3%	2.0%	4.2%
Athletics	71	91	636	686	0.3%	0.1%	0.4%
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Phillies	92	70	681	598	60.6%	10.5%	71.1%
Braves	87	75	711	662	24.9%	13.8%	38.7%
Marlins	81	81	716	695	8.2%	4.4%	12.6%
Nationals	80	82	665	668	4.9%	3.2%	8.1%
Mets	76	86	669	710	1.4%	1.6%	3.0%
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Brewers	92	70	700	646	52.5%	14.3%	66.7%
Cardinals	90	72	708	648	36.8%	19.3%	56.2%
Reds	84	78	724	704	10.1%	10.8%	20.9%
Cubs	74	88	649	727	0.3%	1.1%	1.4%
Pirates	70	92	656	758	0.4%	-	0.4%
Astros	60	102	569	759	0.0%	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Giants	88	74	656	613	46.3%	6.4%	52.7%
Diamondbacks	86	76	647	613	31.2%	6.4%	37.6%
Padres	81	81	620	613	11.3%	4.6%	15.9%
Dodgers	79	83	624	644	7.9%	2.9%	10.8%
Rockies	76	86	726	776	3.4%	0.6%	4.0%

The most shocking thing here is the Astros projecting to win 62 games IMO. I also am amused by the fact that the Marlins don’t really project any better than the Nationals despite all their largesse this offseason.

Also, be aware that I haven’t accounted for the stupid new second wild card thing yet, since I am not certain that it will be implemented for this upcoming season, and rremember that this is more for fun than utility and take it in the appropriate spirit.

--Posted at 11:22 am by SG / 44 Comments | - (0)

Monday, September 5, 2011

Monte Carlo Standings and Postseason Odds Through September 4, 2011

American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Yankees	99	63	870	657	63.0%	36.7%	99.7%
Red Sox	98	64	860	694	36.9%	62.3%	99.3%
Rays	87	75	705	630	0.1%	0.9%	1.0%
Blue Jays	79	83	745	749	-	-	-
Orioles	64	98	694	841	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Tigers	89	73	740	724	94.2%	-	94.2%
White Sox	82	80	672	681	4.0%	-	4.0%
Indians	80	82	688	720	1.9%	-	1.9%
Twins	71	91	662	791	-	-	-
Royals	67	95	706	782	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Rangers	91	71	815	696	92.1%	0.0%	92.1%
Angels	86	76	666	650	7.9%	0.0%	7.9%
Athletics	75	87	654	668	-	-	-
Mariners	69	93	574	678	-	-	-
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Phillies	103	59	736	555	98.0%	2.0%	100.0%
Braves	94	68	678	605	2.0%	95.4%	97.4%
Mets	80	82	723	733	-	0.0%	0.0%
Nationals	75	87	632	688	-	-	-
Marlins	73	89	647	717	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Brewers	95	67	723	659	98.7%	0.2%	98.9%
Cardinals	86	76	761	714	1.3%	2.1%	3.3%
Reds	81	81	751	711	-	-	-
Pirates	74	88	633	706	-	-	-
Cubs	70	92	664	768	-	-	-
Astros	56	106	610	787	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Diamondbacks	89	73	713	689	83.2%	0.1%	83.3%
Giants	85	77	575	585	15.9%	0.3%	16.2%
Dodgers	80	82	641	630	0.8%	0.0%	0.8%
Rockies	78	84	744	751	0.1%	-	0.1%
Padres	71	91	614	637	-	-	-

Not looking like too much suspense aside from seeding at this point.

--Posted at 9:14 am by SG / 10 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

More on Run Differentials

Last week I looked at the Yankees’ run differential and made the point that actual runs scored and allowed can be a bit misleading, and that it’s probably more instructive to look at the context neutral value of the offensive events for and against a team to get a better sense of how good they have actually been. For the hell of it I decided to look at this for all teams in MLB as of this morning.

Team	RS	RA	bRS	bRA	RS - bRS	RA - bRA	Gap
Pirates	436	469	415	503	21	-34	55
Yankees	603	436	577	455	26	-19	45
Padres	431	438	413	448	18	-10	28
Reds	542	510	522	511	20	-1	21
Phillies	504	375	500	391	4	-16	20
Blue Jays	534	522	515	522	19	0	18
Braves	476	426	467	428	9	-2	11
Royals	505	551	509	566	-4	-15	11
Diamondbacks	516	502	499	493	17	9	9
Nationals	449	471	445	475	4	-4	7
Rays	485	452	481	453	4	-1	5
Angels	441	419	457	439	-16	-20	5
Cardinals	552	500	538	490	14	10	4
Indians	478	486	458	469	20	17	3
Rockies	528	536	519	529	9	7	2
Twins	449	559	420	532	29	27	2
Athletics	442	456	430	440	12	16	-5
White Sox	453	468	451	457	2	11	-9
Mets	518	507	525	504	-7	3	-10
Red Sox	625	479	628	472	-3	7	-11
Dodgers	418	456	429	454	-11	2	-13
Marlins	462	503	471	497	-9	6	-15
Mariners	376	439	362	409	14	30	-16
Rangers	589	490	582	466	7	24	-17
Brewers	512	486	508	462	4	24	-19
Astros	437	574	451	568	-14	6	-20
Orioles	462	598	473	586	-11	12	-23
Cubs	474	571	481	552	-7	19	-26
Giants	399	411	414	399	-15	12	-28
Tigers	508	514	512	484	-4	30	-35

RS/RA: Actual runs scored/allowed
bRS/bRA linear weights batting runs scored/allowed.
Gap: RS - bRS minus RA - bRA. The larger the number, the more a team has outplayed their peripherals. Basically, positive is bad here and negative is good.

What this table is saying is that, for example, the Yankees have scored about 26 more runs and allowed 19 fewer runs than their peripheral stats say they should have. That doesn’t mean you should subtract 4.5 wins from their total on the season. It just means that their Pythagenpat record/run differential is a bit misleading. In the Yankees’ case they’ve got 73 Pythag wins and 69 actual wins, so they haven’t really taken advantage of this in actual wins.

Contrast that with Pittsburgh, who’ve stumbled lately. They were playing over their heads all year, and unfortunately the correction has been ugly. At 55-59, they’re still two wins ahead of their 53-61 Pythag record, and if you look at that gap they are probably not even that good.

--Posted at 2:57 pm by SG / 9 Comments | - (0)

Page 1 of 1 pages: