The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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MLB Trade Rumors: Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees
(29 Comments - 10/23/2014 1:31:36 am)

Newsday: Gary Denbo expected to replace Mark Newman in Yankees’ front office
(43 Comments - 10/22/2014 11:12:13 am)

NY Post: With Chili Davis off market, Yankees turn to Dave Magadan
(27 Comments - 10/21/2014 4:14:39 am)

TGS NY: Can McCann help lead the Bombers back?
(42 Comments - 10/19/2014 6:53:53 pm)

NYDN: Dave Magadan, Chili Davis are early frontrunners for Yankees hitting coach job
(34 Comments - 10/17/2014 9:05:10 am)

TGS NY: Eleven young Yankees on the rise in 2015
(76 Comments - 10/16/2014 10:13:29 am)

Newsday: Sources: Yankees considering Omar Minaya for high-ranking position in front office
(75 Comments - 10/15/2014 9:29:03 am)

NY Post: Yankees make to-do list: Third base, shortstop, rotation, closer
(63 Comments - 10/15/2014 1:12:44 am)

CBS Local: Yankees, General Manager Brian Cashman Agree To 3-Year Extension
(120 Comments - 10/14/2014 8:11:12 pm)

Yankees.com: Cashman signs three-year deal to continue as GM
(1 Comment - 10/10/2014 3:26:05 pm)



Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Wednesday, November 20, 2013

CAIRO 2014 v0.2’s Extremely Early and Completely Useless 2013 Projected MLB Standings

I figured I had a long offseason ahead of me if I was going to do everything in my power to make the Yankees look better than they are. The thing that needed to be done first was put the Yankees in the context of the rest of MLB.  So I’ve been working on building my CAIRO season simulation disk and gave it a trial run last night.  This was current through rosters as of yesterday morning.

As the title says, this is extremely early and completely useless so think of it more as a goof than anything too serious.  So using CAIRO v0.2 which I’ll probably post tomorrow and the depth charts from MLB Depth Charts and Rotochamp as a rough gauge of playing time, here’s how the 2014 MLB season looks as of November 20.

Date 11/20/2013
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 92 70 808 728 53.4% 10.7% 9.8% 73.9%
Rays 87 75 664 587 21.3% 11.6% 11.7% 44.5%
Blue Jays 86 76 816 761 14.9% 10.2% 11.7% 36.8%
Orioles 84 78 750 711 10.4% 6.3% 8.7% 25.4%
Yankees 71 91 674 801 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Tigers 91 71 773 661 71.1% 4.9% 4.5% 80.6%
Indians 85 77 725 670 21.6% 10.1% 10.0% 41.7%
Royals 79 83 703 758 6.1% 2.0% 4.1% 12.1%
Twins 74 88 707 774 1.2% 0.2% 0.8% 2.2%
White Sox 70 92 711 804 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 91 71 760 641 61.4% 12.9% 9.0% 83.3%
Athletics 86 76 710 641 24.6% 17.6% 16.4% 58.6%
Angels 84 78 664 643 13.8% 12.8% 12.4% 39.0%
Mariners 72 90 617 684 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 1.4%
Astros 54 108 660 970 0.0% - - -
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Nationals 90 72 697 608 52.9% 19.3% 10.1% 82.3%
Braves 90 72 645 589 45.1% 23.5% 10.5% 79.1%
Phillies 77 85 634 676 1.4% 1.6% 3.8% 6.9%
Marlins 73 89 574 641 0.5% 0.9% 1.7% 3.2%
Mets 68 94 589 682 0.1% - 0.1% 0.2%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Reds 87 75 676 620 34.6% 9.8% 9.3% 53.7%
Pirates 87 75 593 551 36.3% 8.7% 10.3% 55.2%
Cardinals 85 77 621 574 27.1% 9.0% 10.5% 46.5%
Brewers 75 87 706 763 1.3% 0.8% 1.5% 3.6%
Cubs 73 89 625 680 0.9% 0.3% 1.0% 2.1%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Dodgers 88 74 640 584 42.3% 7.0% 10.4% 59.6%
Giants 85 77 607 574 20.0% 6.5% 10.5% 37.1%
Diamondbacks 84 78 618 588 20.0% 6.3% 9.9% 36.2%
Rockies 81 81 852 861 9.9% 3.2% 6.4% 19.6%
Padres 80 82 602 596 7.8% 3.0% 4.1% 14.9%

W: Projected final 2014 wins
L: Projected final 2014 losses
RS: Projected final 2014 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2014 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation

Let me reiterate, these are extremely early and completely useless.  There are literally hundreds of free agents still out there to be signed, and trades to be made, and players to be injured.  There’s also the traditional error bars that projections have, which means you should probably look at this with a 10 game swing on either side of a team’s average projected win total, particularly right now with so much roster churn to come.

But if you are a Yankee fan, like I used to be, this is pretty disheartening.  It’s not surprising, and if you put the lineup and pitching staff together based on how they project in 2014 you will see they are about as far from championship caliber as any team in the American League.  Maybe moreso considering the relative strength of their division. 

No, the Astros are not an AL team, even if they use a DH.

Don’t worry though, the Yankees will sign Carlos Beltran and he’ll make them a 95 win team.

--Posted at 8:09 am by SG / 61 Comments | - (0)




Monday, August 26, 2013

NY Times: Yankees Find a Way to Avoid a Sweep

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — At age 37 with cranky knees, Alfonso Soriano is not nearly as swift as he once was. In an earlier life with the Yankees in his middle 20s, Soriano was able to rely on sheer speed and agility as he twice recorded seasons with 40 stolen bases.

Now, stolen bases come more from his mind and the knowledge he has accrued in 15 years in the major leagues, and few were as critical as the one he swiped in the 11th inning Sunday that led directly to a vital 3-2 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays.

Summoning every bit of information about the craft of base stealing that he had gleaned from his previous 365 attempts — and with his manager’s blessing — Soriano set out on an 85-foot sprint that changed the course of the game, and perhaps the Yankees’ playoff hopes.

The Yankees really needed to win two of the three games in Tampa Bay over this weekend, but alas they couldn’t do it.  Saturday’s game was the killer, as CC Sabathia looked like vintage CC for just about the whole game except for a four batter stretch that cost the Yankees their 2-0 lead and the game.  CC was pretty much sitting 94-95 all game, something he hasn’t done all year.  Unfortunately, even if he pitches well going forward it’s probably too little and too late.

The big problem the Yankees face now is that they need a lot of help from a lot of crappy teams.  They’re fighting against Cleveland and Oakland teams that have easier schedules going forward, even if the Yankees were able to take care of their own business against Baltimore, Boston and Tampa Bay.  Here are my estimated projected strengths of schedule for each team over the rest of the season, accounting for home field advantage.

Team Opponent W%
Indians .486
Athletics .490
Rangers .492
Yankees .500
Rays .509
Red Sox .512
Orioles .522

And here’s how many wins every team ahead of the Yankees project to end the season with.

TM W
Tigers 98
Red Sox 94
Rangers 93
Rays 93
Athletics 90
Indians 88
Orioles 86
Yankees 85

Let’s put that in the perspective of the expected W-L records over the rest of the season.

Team W L
Yankees 16 16
Rays 19 15
Rangers 18 14
Athletics 18 15
Red Sox 17 13
Indians 17 15
Orioles 16 17

Let’s forget about Boston, Tampa Bay and Texas for now.  I can’t see the Yankees making up the seven or eight games in projected record over the rest of the season to catch any of them.  Yeah, they play Boston seven more times, all at home, but even if they win five of those seven games they still have to make up another five games.  They play the Rays just three more times, so even if they sweep that series they would have to make up another four games.

The Yankees play the Orioles seven more times (three at home, four on the road so they can pass them by beating them.

Which means it’s basically down to winning the games they can win and then watching what Oakland and Cleveland do in these remaining games.

Game #
Angels@Athletics 3
Astros@Athletics 4
Athletics@Angels 3
Athletics@Mariners 3
Athletics@Rangers 3
Athletics@Tigers 4
Athletics@Twins 3
Rangers@Athletics 3
Rays@Athletics 3
Twins@Athletics 4
Game #
Astros@Indians 4
Indians@Braves 3
Indians@Royals 3
Indians@Tigers 3
Indians@Twins 4
Indians@White Sox 4
Mets@Indians 3
Orioles@Indians 3
Royals@Indians 3
White Sox@Indians 2

I’d feel better about the Yankees’ chances if Oakland didn’t have so many games left against the Angels, Astros, Mariners and Twins and Cleveland didn’t have so many games left against the Astros, Twins, White Sox and Mets.

I fear the Yankees have run out of time.  They are probably one of the six best teams in the AL right now, but they haven’t been for too much of the season to make up for it.

--Posted at 8:03 am by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, August 15, 2013

Best 43 Games Stretches by Every 2013 MLB Team

Tm StartDate EndDate W-L WPCT season WPCT% RS RA
LAD 6/22 8/9 35-8 .814 .583 209 130
PIT 5/14 6/30 30-13 .698 .597 166 131
STL 4/9 5/27 30-13 .698 .571 198 133
TBR 6/16 8/4 30-13 .698 .568 175 124
ATL 6/26 8/14 29-14 .674 .612 221 146
CIN 4/15 5/31 29-14 .674 .567 197 136
DET 6/20 8/8 29-14 .674 .588 236 161
NYY 4/7 5/25 29-14 .674 .521 191 146
OAK 5/15 7/2 29-14 .674 .563 199 147
TEX 4/2 5/19 29-14 .674 .579 210 150
CLE 6/14 8/1 28-15 .651 .537 211 163
TOR 5/5 6/23 28-15 .651 .458 242 181
BOS 4/13 5/27 27-16 .628 .590 215 184
KCR 6/26 8/13 27-16 .628 .525 186 162
CHC 4/5 5/23 16-27 .372 .433 173 180
CHW 6/5 7/25 16-27 .372 .387 184 209
COL 6/13 7/31 16-27 .372 .467 152 202
HOU 4/17 6/2 16-27 .372 .328 171 241
LAA 4/3 5/19 16-27 .372 .445 186 226
MIL 4/19 6/4 16-27 .372 .433 174 209
NYM 4/19 6/8 16-27 .372 .458 143 196
SDP 6/18 8/6 16-27 .372 .450 152 193
SFG 5/16 7/2 16-27 .372 .437 151 189
MIA 5/6 6/23 15-28 .349 .387 137 188

I figured this would give some perspective on just how hard it’s going to be for the Yankees to win 30+ of their 43 remaining games. 

 

--Posted at 8:48 am by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)




Monday, July 22, 2013

2013 MLB Postseason Odds Through Games of July 21

Date 7/22/2013
Iterations 1,000,000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 94 68 825 730 51.6% 23.9% 10.6% 86.1%
Rays 92 70 743 651 34.7% 29.4% 16.5% 80.7%
Orioles 88 74 763 740 11.0% 16.1% 20.9% 47.9%
Yankees 83 79 694 684 2.3% 4.4% 8.9% 15.5%
Blue Jays 77 85 758 748 0.0% 0.8% 1.1% 1.9%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Tigers 91 71 806 682 75.1% 2.2% 4.9% 82.2%
Indians 86 76 758 730 21.6% 4.7% 8.8% 35.2%
Royals 78 84 668 679 2.7% 0.5% 1.7% 4.8%
Twins 70 92 672 778 0.1% - 0.2% 0.3%
White Sox 69 93 658 734 0.1% - 0.1% 0.2%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Athletics 93 69 725 641 74.0% 5.2% 6.6% 85.8%
Rangers 88 74 733 690 23.7% 11.2% 16.6% 51.5%
Angels 80 82 747 709 1.7% 1.2% 2.5% 5.4%
Mariners 74 88 660 727 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7%
Astros 55 107 625 868 0.0% - - -
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Braves 93 69 694 600 90.0% 0.6% 2.7% 93.2%
Nationals 81 81 635 622 5.9% 1.6% 8.3% 15.8%
Phillies 78 84 647 698 3.2% 0.5% 3.2% 6.8%
Mets 75 87 666 715 0.6% 0.4% 1.0% 1.9%
Marlins 61 101 559 701 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Cardinals 98 64 757 614 68.0% 21.5% 9.7% 99.1%
Reds 91 71 718 622 15.3% 38.6% 31.4% 85.4%
Pirates 91 71 638 603 16.2% 34.8% 32.7% 83.7%
Cubs 73 89 659 695 0.1% - 1.3% 1.4%
Brewers 69 93 660 728 0.0% - 0.2% 0.2%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Diamondbacks 84 78 688 672 41.5% 1.0% 3.0% 45.6%
Dodgers 83 79 647 631 37.9% 0.5% 3.5% 41.8%
Rockies 78 84 742 765 12.6% 0.2% 1.6% 14.3%
Giants 77 85 652 670 6.9% - 0.9% 7.8%
Padres 71 91 642 714 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 1.0%

W: Projected final 2013 wins
L: Projected final 2013 losses
RS: Projected final 2013 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2013 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

At least the Yankees have a good chance of not finishing last.

Should they sell?  Probably.  Will they sell?  Probably not.

--Posted at 9:27 am by SG / 59 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, March 27, 2013

The 2013 MLB Projection Blowout

With Opening Day rapidly approaching, it’s time for my 2013 MLB projected standings blowout.  The idea behind this series of posts is to try and project how the 2013 MLB season might look given what we think we may know right now.  I’ve been doing a version of this since 2005, and you can see the results by looking at the following links.

2005
2006
2007
2008 Pt 1
2008 Pt 2
2009 AL
2009 NL
2010 AL
2010 NL
2011 AL
2011 NL
2012

A quick look at the previous seasons shows that the results are hit and miss.  Projections don’t pretend to be omnisicent, so they can only tell us so much about how things play out.  Hence the following disclaimers.

1) Projection systems are inherently limited in their accuracy, particularly for pitchers. We can get a rough idea of how most players will perform by looking at their past histories and how similar players have performed, and factoring in aging and regression, but abilities/talent can change in ways that can’t be forecasted.

2) Playing time distribution in these simulations will not match actual 2013 playing time. I used the rosters and depth charts available at MLB Depth Charts plus whatever I’ve read over the offseason as my guide to set these up as realistically as possible, but it’s a possible source of error. Rosters were set up to have 35-40 or so active players per team, and to get a reasonable amount of playing time from the bench and extra pitchers, to more closely model reality. Basically, no players are set to play more than 90% of the time, starting catchers are restricted to at most about 75% of the games, and I’ve made sure teams get a non-trivial amount of starts from their 6-8 starters. The healthier a team is in 2013, the more likely they will be to exceed these projections, and vice versa.

3) We cannot predict injuries and/or roster changes. These simulations do try to adjust projected playing time based on past health issues, so someone like Erik Bedard is not expected to make 30 starts. I’ve also included random injuries which may lead to some of the outlying results you see, but there’s no way to account for all the fluctuations that will happen with rosters this season.

4) These are NOT my predictions. These are projections based on running a computer simulation hundreds of thousands of times with projection data that is inherently limited. If your favorite team doesn’t project well, don’t blame me, blame the computers and spreadsheets that projected them. I guess you can blame me for the CAIRO results if you want, otherwise you can take heart in the 2006 Tigers projecting to win 80, the 2010 Giants projecting to go 81-81 or the 2012 Orioles projecting to win 70 games.  These are not meant to tell you how the season is going to play out.  I prefer to think of them more as a starting point for discussion, with a range of something like 10 wins in either direction based on how things actually end up playing out.  You can look at them and argue about why you think some teams will be better or worse.

5) Since this is all automated, I don’t break ties. I simply award all ties a share of either the division title or wild cards when it happens which is why you may see some funny decimal places in the standings that follow.

6) These are the averages of hundreds of thousands of simulated seasons, so the results will tend to regress towards the mean. The final standings will not look like this, because they only play the season once.  If the first place team in a division projects to win 85 games, it doesn’t mean 85 wins will win the division, but I’ll get into that into more detail further down in this post.

7) Even if you knew exactly what every player would do, and exactly how much they’d play, you would not get the standings right.  A few one run games or a disparate performance in more crucial situations can cause any team to over/under achieve what their stats say they should have done.  So if that’s true, you have to figure that since we have no idea what any individual player do or how much they’ll play, the margin of error on these is massive.

There’s too much stuff to fit it all into one post, so I’ve created a separate post for each projection system.  I will use this post to show the results of the aggregate/average of all the projections. You can follow the links below to look at the individual projection systems’ results.

This year, I’m using five different projection systems.  You can click on each of the links below to get some more information about each system and to see how their specific projected standings look.

CAIRO
Marcel
Oliver
Steamer
ZiPS

I should note that the Marcel projections used here were generated using Python code provided by Jeff Sackmann and are not the “official” projections, although they should be almost identical.  I’ll also mention that ZiPS will have its own projected standings so these should not be considered the official version.  Playing time distribution, run environments and park factors may cause some divergence between what ZiPS forecasts and what mine say.  When in doubt, go with the official version.

With all the disclaimers out of the way, on to the projected standings.  These are the combined results for all five projection systems.  The standings are rounded to the nearest win so if the total W-L doesn’t add up to 2430-2430 that’s why.

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/-
Blue Jays 89 73 795 728 29.1% 9.9% 9.6% 48.5% 77-100
Rays 88 74 715 644 27.6% 9.5% 8.8% 45.9% 77-100
Yankees 85 77 774 745 18.6% 7.9% 8.2% 34.7% 73-96
Red Sox 82 80 819 803 15.4% 6.6% 8.2% 30.2% 70-93
Orioles 79 83 738 766 9.3% 4.5% 5.8% 19.6% 68-90
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Tigers 89 73 797 714 46.4% 6.6% 6.8% 59.8% 77-100
Royals 81 81 716 721 19.3% 5.6% 6.5% 31.4% 70-92
Indians 80 82 741 744 18.7% 5.0% 6.2% 29.9% 69-91
White Sox 76 86 718 767 12.4% 4.0% 4.8% 21.2% 65-88
Twins 67 95 693 825 3.2% 0.9% 1.6% 5.6% 56-78
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Angels 91 71 763 656 40.0% 12.3% 9.3% 61.7% 80-103
Rangers 88 74 795 727 30.1% 12.0% 10.0% 52.1% 77-100
Athletics 87 75 731 679 24.6% 12.1% 10.0% 46.6% 75-98
Mariners 73 89 660 722 4.7% 2.9% 3.8% 11.4% 61-84
Astros 60 102 649 866 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 1.6% 49-72
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Nationals 90 72 690 598 44.5% 11.3% 8.3% 64.0% 79-102
Braves 88 74 673 622 32.3% 11.5% 9.7% 53.5% 77-99
Phillies 80 82 665 680 15.1% 7.2% 7.9% 30.1% 69-92
Mets 73 89 645 703 5.3% 3.1% 4.2% 12.6% 61-84
Marlins 69 93 624 731 2.8% 1.9% 2.5% 7.3% 57-80
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Reds 89 73 741 662 41.0% 8.9% 7.9% 57.8% 78-101
Cardinals 85 77 686 655 26.8% 8.8% 7.8% 43.4% 73-96
Brewers 79 83 704 733 13.4% 5.5% 6.5% 25.3% 67-90
Pirates 78 84 665 691 11.6% 4.3% 5.6% 21.5% 66-89
Cubs 74 88 652 705 7.2% 3.3% 4.1% 14.6% 63-85
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Dodgers 87 75 677 618 30.9% 9.4% 8.9% 49.2% 76-99
Giants 87 75 665 613 28.3% 9.1% 9.0% 46.4% 76-98
Diamondbacks 84 78 716 696 22.7% 8.1% 8.0% 38.8% 73-95
Padres 78 84 643 668 11.0% 4.4% 5.4% 20.8% 66-89
Rockies 74 88 775 847 7.2% 3.2% 4.2% 14.6% 63-85

W: Projected final 2013 wins
L: Projected final 2013 losses
RS: Projected final 2013 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2013 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation

As noted earlier, this is NOT saying that you can win the NL West by winning 87 games.  It’s saying that the team that finished in first most frequently in that division averaged 87 wins over hundreds of thousands of seasons.  Here are the average win totals for each spot in each division.

Place ALE ALC ALW NLE NLC NLW
1 94 91 95 94 92 92
2 89 84 89 87 85 87
3 85 79 83 80 81 83
4 81 74 73 73 76 78
5 75 66 60 66 70 71
WC1 91 90
WC2 87 86

Here is how each division broke down in terms of percentages using the aforementioned pie charts.

In the AL East, we’ve got the mostly tightly bunched group of teams in baseball, with just 10 wins separating Toronto at the top and Baltimore at the bottom.  Toronto and Tampa Bay look like they’re neck and neck as of right now.  The Yankees are already ravaged by injuries and at this point it doesn’t seem like it would take a lot for them to end up having a losing season and even finish last.  Should they lose Robinson Cano or CC Sabathia for any significant amount of time that may be exactly what happens.  Boston has improved quite a bit from where they were at the end of last season, although they apparently still have a ways to go.  The projections are expecting a big regression from Baltimore, although they have enough talented young players with upside that they could beat their projections by quite a bit.
     

The AL Central basically looks like Detroit and everyone else.  Kansas City and Cleveland are jockeying behind the Tigers.  It’ll be interesting to see what the Indians get out of Scott Kazmir, who did not have a Steamer projection and projected pretty poorly in all the other systems.  He’s throwing harder than he was when last seen in the majors and could surprise some people.  For the Royals, it looks like Big Game James may not get into many big games this year, although stranger things have happened.  The White Sox are projected to fall off a bit from last season, and the Twins look like they aren’t going to be very good.

There’s a new floormat in the AL West, and it’s the Houston Astros.  Can they lose 100+ games for the third year in a row?  The projections think they can.  Houston projects to be so bad that they have essentially balanced out the league difference between the AL and NL.  Last year, the AL went 1150-1118 thanks to interleague play.  If you add Houston’s 55-107 to that you get a record of 1205-1225.  Los Anaheim looks like the favorite here and project to win more games than any other team in baseball, with Texas a strong second.  The Angels do have some concerns in their rotation, which could open the door for the Rangers.  Oakland projects to fall back a bit from last year, but still should be in contention.  Seattle still doesn’t look particularly good, although they should score some more runs this year, which is something.

The Nationals project as favorites in the NL East, especially now that the restrictions are off Stephen Strasburg.  The Braves aren’t quite at their level, but project to be pretty good as well.  The Phillies appear to be showing their age, and if Roy Halladay doesn’t bounce back they could be in trouble.  The Mets don’t look good to me, especially with Johan Santana looking iffy and the Marlins may be as bad as the Astros.  If Placido Polanco is hitting cleanup to ‘protect’ Giancarlo Stanton, it’s hard to see them winning 60 games.

In the Central, the Reds look like the clear favorite.  The Cardinals were closer before losing Chris Carpenter and Rafael Furcal, but they seem like the second best team in the division.  Pittsburgh and Milwaukee are neck and neck with each other and the Cubs look to be bringing up the rear.

In the West, the Dodgers are spending money like there’s no tomorrow but I’m not so sure they’re spending it all that well.  They project a hair better than San Francisco but given the margin of error inherent in projections there’s really no difference in their projections.  The Diamondbacks had a bizarre offseason and losing Adam Eaton for two months hurts, but they should be in the mix if a few things go their way.  The Padres look a bit better than I expected, although still not good and the Rockies stink.

Usually there’s a surprise team or two in here but this year nothing really stands out.  In general it seems that aside from a handful of really bad teams we’re seeing more parity.  Between that and the second wild card you can pretty much see any team in baseball sneaking into the postseason.  Except the Astros.

And there you have it.  The 2013 projection blowout.  Results are not guaranteed.

On an unrelated note, our sister site, the Replacement Level Red Sox launches today. Check them out at replacementlevelredsox.com.

--Posted at 6:59 am by SG / 45 Comments | - (0)




Monday, December 10, 2012

CAIRO 2013 v0.2’s Extremely Early and Completely Useless 2013 Projected MLB Standings

Since I was curious about how the big trade between Kansas City and Tampa Bay affected the AL East, I ran some projected standings based on rosters as of last night.  As the title says, this is extremely early and completely useless so think of it more as a goof than anything too serious.  So using CAIRO v0.2 and the depth charts from MLB Depth Charts and Rotochamp as a rough gauge of playing time, here’s how the 2013 MLB season looks as of December 10.

Update: CAIRO v0.5 is now available

Date 12/10/2012
Iterations 100000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Rays 86 76 698 643 25.8% 8.4% 10.2% 44.4%
Blue Jays 86 76 789 741 25.3% 9.2% 8.2% 42.7%
Yankees 85 77 771 738 23.0% 8.6% 7.7% 39.3%
Red Sox 84 78 788 759 20.1% 7.7% 8.4% 36.2%
Orioles 73 89 718 780 5.8% 3.1% 5.0% 13.9%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Tigers 91 71 791 709 46.2% 7.3% 6.0% 59.5%
Royals 84 78 717 701 24.7% 6.4% 8.3% 39.4%
White Sox 80 82 725 755 18.2% 4.4% 6.5% 29.0%
Indians 73 89 692 768 7.3% 2.7% 4.0% 14.0%
Twins 65 97 696 854 3.7% 1.6% 1.6% 6.9%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Angels 95 67 726 616 43.4% 12.8% 9.3% 65.6%
Rangers 88 74 762 699 24.7% 12.1% 10.6% 47.5%
Athletics 88 74 712 653 25.2% 11.0% 8.6% 44.8%
Mariners 74 88 626 692 6.0% 4.3% 5.0% 15.3%
Astros 60 102 651 850 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% 1.8%
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Nationals 94 68 699 590 46.4% 9.9% 8.0% 64.2%
Braves 86 76 686 630 23.8% 11.2% 8.9% 43.9%
Phillies 82 80 666 657 18.0% 7.0% 7.9% 32.9%
Mets 75 87 665 715 8.3% 4.7% 5.3% 18.2%
Marlins 69 93 625 729 3.5% 2.0% 2.9% 8.4%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Reds 91 71 722 635 41.9% 7.9% 7.5% 57.3%
Cardinals 86 76 696 645 28.0% 7.9% 8.7% 44.6%
Brewers 78 84 711 742 12.7% 5.2% 6.5% 24.4%
Pirates 77 85 663 688 11.1% 5.5% 6.6% 23.1%
Cubs 71 91 635 721 6.3% 2.4% 3.5% 12.1%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Dodgers 90 72 677 587 35.0% 9.3% 9.0% 53.4%
Giants 87 75 663 598 27.6% 9.8% 8.2% 45.6%
Diamondbacks 81 81 692 678 15.9% 7.1% 7.1% 30.1%
Padres 81 81 659 654 15.9% 7.7% 7.6% 31.3%
Rockies 71 91 770 865 5.6% 2.4% 2.5% 10.5%

The Astros are going to make it awfully easy for the AL West teams to win the wild cards, aren’t they?

Did I mention that these are extremely early and completely useless?

--Posted at 8:50 am by SG / 60 Comments | - (0)




Friday, September 21, 2012

The Postseason Implications of this Series with Oakland

The Yankees’ second half slide really began when they got swept in Oakland in a four game series following a home sweep of Toronto.  Prior to that series, the Yankees had a 10 game lead in the division and were 57-34.  Since the opener of that series on July 19 they’ve gone 29-29 and lost nine games off their division lead.

The A’s and Orioles have 85 wins, and the Yankees have 86.  The other wild card contenders at this point have a pretty hard road ahead of them to catch any of the three.  The Angels are at 81 wins, the Rays are at 80, the Tigers are at 79 and Boston’s at 68.  But it’s certainly not impossible that things could change over the next week.

Here’s how the postseason odds for the AL look as of this morning.

TM W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 93.4 68.6 80.1% 10.3% 6.8% 97.1%
Orioles 91.2 70.8 19.6% 35.8% 33.4% 88.8%
Rays 86.5 75.5 0.2% 1.3% 6.0% 7.5%
Red Sox 73.0 89.0 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 72.3 89.7 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 88.2 73.9 72.2% 0.1% 0.8% 73.0%
Tigers 86.4 75.6 27.6% 0.1% 1.9% 29.6%
Royals 74.4 87.6 0.0% - - -
Twins 66.7 95.3 0.0% - - -
Indians 66.5 95.5 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 96.1 65.9 90.9% 7.4% 1.2% 99.4%
Athletics 91.1 70.9 9.0% 43.0% 38.5% 90.5%
Angels 87.2 74.8 0.0% 1.8% 11.4% 13.2%
Mariners 74.9 87.1 0.0% - - -

W: Projected final 2012 wins
L: Projected final 2012 losses
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)


Here are how they change based on the four possible outcomes of this series.

A’s 3-0 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 89.9 72.1 58.2% 4.3% 22.6% 85.1%
Orioles 89.4 72.6 39.2% 5.8% 38.1% 83.1%
Rays 84.9 77.1 0.6% 0.2% 6.0% 6.8%
Red Sox 71.7 90.3 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 71.1 90.9 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 86.6 75.4 74.2% 0.1% 0.2% 74.5%
Tigers 84.8 77.2 23.8% 0.1% 2.2% 26.1%
Royals 73.1 88.9 0.0% - - -
Twins 65.6 96.4 0.0% - - -
Indians 65.2 96.8 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 94.4 67.6 85.2% 12.8% 0.6% 98.6%
Athletics 91.2 70.8 12.8% 74.8% 16.1% 100.0%
Angels 85.8 76.2 0.0% - 12.5% 12.5%
Mariners 73.4 88.6 0.0% - - -
A’s 2-1 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 92.1 69.9 70.9% 9.0% 14.5% 94.4%
Orioles 90.6 71.4 28.3% 18.9% 40.1% 87.3%
Rays 86.2 75.8 0.0% 0.1% 7.2% 7.4%
Red Sox 72.5 89.5 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 71.8 90.2 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 87.6 74.4 76.1% - - 76.1%
Tigers 85.6 76.4 23.1% - 1.8% 24.9%
Royals 74.0 88.0 0.0% - - -
Twins 66.4 95.6 0.0% - - -
Indians 66.1 95.9 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 95.4 66.6 89.2% 10.0% - 99.1%
Athletics 91.6 70.4 10.0% 61.0% 26.1% 97.1%
Angels 86.7 75.3 0.0% 0.2% 9.9% 10.1%
Mariners 74.2 87.8 0.0% - - -
Yankees 2-1 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 93.7 68.3 84.1% 10.2% 4.8% 99.1%
Orioles 91.1 70.9 15.5% 42.2% 34.7% 92.4%
Rays 86.3 75.7 0.0% 0.2% 4.0% 4.2%
Red Sox 72.8 89.2 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 72.1 89.9 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 87.8 74.2 75.3% 0.1% 0.4% 75.8%
Tigers 86.1 75.9 24.3% 0.1% 0.8% 25.2%
Royals 74.3 87.7 0.0% - - -
Twins 66.4 95.6 0.0% - - -
Indians 66.4 95.6 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 95.8 66.2 95.4% 3.2% 0.6% 99.2%
Athletics 90.7 71.3 4.2% 41.3% 44.0% 89.5%
Angels 87.2 74.8 0.0% 2.2% 10.6% 12.9%
Mariners 74.6 87.4 0.0% - - -
Yankees 3-0 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 94.5 67.5 92.6% 6.6% 0.2% 99.3%
Orioles 91.1 70.9 7.0% 58.8% 24.3% 90.1%
Rays 86.3 75.7 0.0% 1.6% 6.5% 8.1%
Red Sox 72.8 89.2 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 72.1 89.9 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 88.1 73.9 74.9% - 0.2% 75.1%
Tigers 86.5 75.5 24.7% 0.4% 1.5% 26.6%
Royals 74.2 87.8 0.0% - - -
Twins 66.4 95.6 0.0% - - -
Indians 66.3 95.7 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 95.7 66.3 96.2% 2.8% 0.6% 99.6%
Athletics 89.9 72.1 3.2% 26.8% 53.3% 83.4%
Angels 87.1 74.9 0.2% 2.6% 13.4% 16.2%
Mariners 74.6 87.4 0.0% - - -

With Baltimore at Fenway for three games, they have a very good chance at solidifying their postseason odds since they’re guaranteed to gain ground on one of the A’s or Yankees if they can win.  Since Boston is really not even an MLB team at this point I’d be shocked by anything less than sweep.  In fact, if it were possible I’d say the Orioles would pick up four wins in three games against Boston.

But the Yankees can’t worry about that.  They just need to win.  Hopefully they can take two of three.

--Posted at 10:17 am by SG / 17 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, July 17, 2012

CBS NY: Yankees’ Gardner Suffers Third Setback; CC Set To Return

NEW YORK (WFAN/AP) — CC Sabathia found the whole experience of his first trip to the disabled list with the Yankees a little “embarrassing,” and he is looking forward to making his first start in more than two weeks.

Brett Gardner might have to wait even longer to return from an elbow injury.

Sabathia will make his first start since June 24 on Tuesday night against Toronto. Out with a groin strain, he says he’s feeling well enough to pitch as long as he needs to and thinks the time off might have been more beneficial to his left arm than the groin.
...
Gardner was sore a day after he had four at-bats in a three-inning simulated game and was being kept off the field Monday. The speedy outfielder has already had two setbacks in his recovery from a strained elbow that has sidelined him since April 18.

At this point, Gardner may do the unthinkable and break Damaso Marte’s record for setbacks in a season.  Are we comfortable with a platoon of Andruw Jones/Raul Ibanez and DeWayne Wise on defense for the rest of the year?  Jones has a .339 wOBA vs. RHP this year and Ibanez has a .338 wOBA vs. LHP.  The average AL LF has a wOBA of .331, so assuming that Jones and Ibanez can keep up what they’ve done the Yankees would be slightly better than average on offense although they probably give away some of that on defense.  They can use Wise in spots where defense can be leveraged more optimally I guess.

It seems like a seller’s market right now with so many teams still having a reasonable chance at the second wild card, so I don’t know who’s available and what the price will be.  Here are how I have each teams’ odds of qualifying for the postseason as of this morning.

TM PS%
Yankees 93.2%
Rangers 92.2%
Nationals 83.0%
Reds 78.7%
Braves 71.5%
Giants 61.8%
White Sox 60.7%
Angels 59.3%
Cardinals 58.8%
Pirates 46.6%
Tigers 45.8%
Red Sox 43.2%
Dodgers 32.9%
Rays 32.0%
Indians 27.9%
Diamondbacks 25.0%
Mets 20.2%
Athletics 19.2%
Blue Jays 17.4%
Brewers 11.5%
Orioles 6.3%
Marlins 4.6%
Phillies 4.1%
Royals 1.8%
Rockies 1.0%
Mariners 0.8%
Twins 0.3%
Cubs 0.3%
Padres 0.3%
Astros -

I’d probably say any team under 20% should be a seller, but they may feel differently.  So who may be available from those teams, and what would they cost?

--Posted at 8:24 am by SG / 31 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Indians (37-36) @ Yankees (45-28), Wednesday, June 27, 2012, 1:05pm

CLE: Ubaldo Jimenez (28, RHP, 7-5, 4.59) vs. NYY: Andy Pettitte (40, LHP, 3-3, 3.29)

Lineups
Indians
M. Brantley, CF
A. Cabrera, SS
J. Kipnis, 2B
J. Lopez, 3B
C. Santana, DH
S. Duncan, LF
C. Kotchman, 1B
L. Marson, C
A. Cunningham, RF

Yankees
C. Granderson, CF
N. Swisher, RF
A. Rodriguez, 3B
R. Cano, 2B
M. Teixeira, DH
R. Ibanez, LF
E. Chavez, 1B
R. Martin, C
J. Nix, SS

Joined in progress….

Mini Liveblog:
I’ll do what I can for folks at work for a while; will probably be able to put in a few innings.

1st inning recap:
Andy gave up one hit but struck out the side.  Ubaldo put a couple runners on (Granderson and A-Rod) with walks, but Cano struck out and Teixeira popped out to end the inning.  Way to get the RISP fail started early boys.

Top of the 2nd:
A bouncer to A-Rod who throws wide of first and Chavez is unable to make the swipe tag. Santana safe on an infield single.  a throwing error by A-Rod.
Duncan promptly doubles into the gap in right center to plate Santana. 1-0 Indians.
Kotchman strikes out swinging for the first out.
Soft grounder to Nix at short who bare hands it and makes a great throw to first for the out.  Marson makes two down.
Pettitte walks Cunningham for some reason.
On a 1-2 count to Brantley, Cunningham succumbs to a pickoff/caught stealing, 1-3-6.  Inning over.

Bottom of the 2nd
Ibanez rolls over one, grounding out to second.
Chavez does essentially the same thing as Ibanez.  Two gone.
Martin strikes out looking at a pitch on the outside part of the plate.

Top of the 3rd
With a fresh count, Brantley strikes out looking for his second strikeout in 3 innings.
Cabrera strikes out swinging for Andy’s 6th K in 2.2 innings.
Kipnis grounds one in the hole at second, Cano lunges and makes the grab.  His momentum guides his throw toward Chavez’s right, but Eric stretches and makes the grab while falling to the ground for the third out.  Good defense all around there.

Bottom of the 3rd
Nix strikes out swinging on a high slider.
Granderson skies one to deep right center for the second out. It was caught right in the middle of the warning track.
Swisher also hits one sky high to right field and its caught by Cunningham about a step onto the warning track.  Three down and eight in a row for Ubaldo.

Ubaldo looks pretty good, but I feel as though he’s gotten away with hanging a few pitches.

Top of the 4th
Lopez grounds one to Nix for the 6-3.
Santana frozen on an 0-2 cutter for strike three.
Duncan hit ball high in air near second. Duncan out when Cano catch ball. Duncan make third out.

Bottom of the 4th
A-Rod strikes out swinging.  He did not look comfortable in that AB.
Cano rips a line drive single to right to end the no-hitter bid by Ubaldo.
Teixeira strikes out looking. Surprisingly, nobody is in scoring position.
Ibanez walks to put Cano in scoring position with two outs.  The inning will be over shortly.
Chavez rocks a 1-0 pitch to left center that goes all the way to the wall for a double, scoring both Cano and Ibanez. 2-1 Yankees. I really like Chavez.
Martin swings weakly at an outside pitch, grounding out to second for the third out.

Since the Yankees have not hit a HR yet, we can safely assume the Indians will win this game.

Top of the 5th
Kotchman grounds one hard up the middle and off Andy’s shin or ankle.  He rolls to the ground but it looks like he’ll try to walk it off. Kotchman reaches on an infield single.
Pettitte throws one pitch to Marson but it’s obvious he’s not able to put a lot of weight on that leg.  Girardi comes out and takes Pettitte out of the game.  This is exactly what you want to see when you just got news that your ace is going to the 15-day DL. Cody Eppley comes in to pitch.
A bouncer down the line to third and A-Rod makes, in my opinion, a half-ass effort to grab the ball and it goes off his glove.  Ruled a single, and now runners on 1st and 2nd.
Cunningham sacrifices the runners over with a bunt to Chavez who throws to Cano at first.
Girardi takes out Eppley and brings in Rapada.  A-Rod’s defense today has been fairly crappy.  If these runs score, he’ll be partly responsible for all 3 Cleveland runs.
Freddy Garcia is scheduled to start on Friday but now he’s throwing in the bullpen.  Girardi is mixing and matching in the 5th, so he’ll need an arm to go a couple of innings in this game.  If Freddy comes in, Adam Warren may get the nod on Friday.
Brantley grounds one to Chavez and Kotchman is sent home from third.  The throw comes home in plenty of time and Kotchman lowers his shoulder and knocks Martin over, however the out is made.  Runners on the corners, two gone.  Great job by Martin to hang in on that collision.
Cabrera lines a single to left scoring the Indians second run.  Game is tied 2-2 with runners at first and second now.
Kipnis pops it up in short center and Nix can’t make the play; Brantley scores to give the Indians a 3-2 lead as Cabrera moves to third. What a crappy way to lose the lead.  A-Rod’s defense is now angering me even more.  Nix was running straight out on that pop up and probably missed it by a foot or two.
Freddy Garcia comes in to put out the fire…..
Kipnis steals second with no throw on the 0-1 pitch from Garcia. Lopez strikes out swinging on a Garcia curve. And the inning is mercifully over.

Bottom of the 5th
Nix strikes out looking.
Granderson flies out to almost the same spot he did in his last AB, but slightly shallower.
Swisher flies out to short left field. Three outs. Way to come right back at them, Yanks.

Top of the 6th
Santana hits a very high popup to Nix. One down.
Duncan pops out in foul territory to Nix. Two down.
With two strikes, Kotchman can’t hold up on a Garcia slider low and out of the zone. Three down.

Bottom of the 6th
The Yankee text poll regarding what should be done with instant replay has 51% of voters saying “Bad calls are part of the game”.  Selig must have texted in eleventy billion times.
A-Rod leads off with a looping double down the right field line.  Good start, but now the Yankees have RISP, so the inning will be over shortly.
Cano reaches out for an outside pitch and hits the ball about 8 rows deep into the left field stands for a two-run home run. Yankees take a 4-3 lead.  Wow, I thought the ball was going to be deep, but not that deep.  He is powerful.
Teixeira flies out to left for the first out.
Ibanez pops out to second in short right for the second out.
Chavez works a walk.  Jimenez’s pitch count now at 105.
Martin meets expectations and makes an out of the fielder’s choice variety, 6-4.  Three down.

Top of the 7th
Marson lines one hard to right, Swisher moves about 15 feet to his left and makes the catch.  One down as Boone Logan warms in the Yankees bullpen.
Cunningham pops up a Garcia slider to Nix at short.  Two down.
Brantley bounces one to Chavez at first who takes it himself for the last out of the seventh.  Nice job by Garcia today.

Bottom of the 7th
Joe Smith comes in to pitch the bottom half of the inning for the Indians.
Nix chops one up the middle and Cabrera makes a very good play to get Nix by a half step for the first out.
Granderson strikes out swinging on an outside slider.
Smith looks like a tough pitcher to hit against, even for lefties. And appropriately Swisher strikes out swinging.  Inning over.

Top of the 8th
High Socks for hope time.  Cabrera grounds it sharply down the first base line; Chavez was in no-doubles position and gets his glove on it. One out. He didn’t field it cleanly but the ball stayed in front of him and he had plenty of time to step on first himself.
Robertson strikes out Kipnis looking on an outside fastball. Two down.
Lopez can’t hold up on a Robertson curveball in the dirt with two strikes. Inning over.

Bottom of the 8th
Update on Pettitte: He suffered a fractured ankle and will be out a minimum 6 weeks.  So the Yankees just lost two starters in one day.  Wonderful.
Vinnie Pestano now pitching for the Indians.  Sounds like a type of pasta dish.
A-Rod reaches out and grounds one off the end of his bat to second.
Cano hits one the other way to short on the ground; Cabrera is able to get to it, but not with enough time to make a throw (plus he bobbled it).  Base hit for Cano.
Teixeira grounds softly into the 4-5 fielder’s choice (the shift was on and the out was made at second by Lopez).  Two down.
Ibanez bloops a single into short left, Teixeira moves to second.  With a runner in scoring position, the inning will be over shortly.
Dewayne Wise comes in to run for Ibanez.
Chavez pulls a grounder through the hole at second and Teixeira comes in to score. 5-3 Yankees. Choo’s throw home was close but he bounced it and Teixeira slid in before the tag could be made.  Chavez is the man.
Shocking absolutely nobody, Martin strikes out swinging to end the inning.

Top of the 9th
Everybody KNEEL! Along with Soriano coming in to close, Dewayne Wise is now in left.
Chisenhall, in to pinch hit, lines a single to right field.
Soriano walks Choo and now the tying runs are on base.  If you’re not genuflecting at the altar of Soriano yet, do so now. 
Kotchman flies out to Wise in left. Runners stay put.
Marson grounds one through the hole at short.  Runners move up one.  Oh boy….
Damon comes in to pinch hit for Cunningham…with the bases loaded….at Yankee Stadium.  But he waves at an outside fastball for strike three.  Two down.
The count to Brantley goes to 3-1.  And he walks in a run on the next pitch.  I’m still kneeling, but with just one leg.
Cabrera hits a high fly about 265 feet to left field, and the final out is recorded in the glove of Dewayne Wise. Soriano said KNEEL! Yankees win 5-4.

--Posted at 12:15 pm by Jonathan / 87 Comments | - (0)




Monday, June 4, 2012

2012 MLB Projected Standings and Postseason Odds through June 3

It’s been a while since I last ran these, so here’s how things look as of this morning.  Team projections are based about 2/3 on their average pre-season projection from here and 1/3 on YTD performance in component runs scored and allowed, with some adjustments for roster changes and injuries.

Date 6/4/2012
Iterations 1000000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Yankees 90 72 811 705 35.5% 16.8% 13.6% 65.9% -4.6 -25 -7
Rays 89 73 740 667 30.4% 18.0% 14.1% 62.5% 0.0 -25 -16
Red Sox 86 76 836 750 21.2% 15.1% 14.2% 50.4% -4.1 7 16
Blue Jays 82 80 776 755 9.1% 8.5% 10.9% 28.5% 0.4 2 -20
Orioles 78 84 711 782 3.8% 4.6% 6.9% 15.3% 7.9 -1 -37
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
White Sox 85 77 731 735 43.4% 4.1% 5.5% 53.0% 9.0 24 -37
Indians 81 81 749 763 24.3% 3.6% 5.4% 33.3% -0.9 -18 11
Tigers 81 81 756 738 23.5% 3.1% 5.1% 31.7% -4.7 -28 2
Royals 74 88 685 747 7.6% 1.0% 2.1% 10.6% -0.5 -20 -18
Twins 66 96 701 837 1.3% 0.1% 0.3% 1.7% -5.6 -29 15
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 97 65 840 690 80.3% 6.5% 4.0% 90.8% 5.7 33 -12
Angels 85 77 700 639 16.8% 15.2% 12.6% 44.7% -5.0 -42 -22
Mariners 74 88 680 721 1.9% 2.4% 3.8% 8.1% -0.2 -2 -20
Athletics 71 91 645 713 1.0% 0.8% 1.6% 3.5% -5.0 -62 -43
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Nationals 88 74 659 614 29.3% 12.0% 10.8% 52.1% 3.8 -24 -42
Braves 87 75 730 681 25.0% 11.2% 10.7% 47.0% -0.6 16 15
Marlins 85 77 689 667 19.8% 10.2% 10.3% 40.3% 1.6 -18 -14
Phillies 85 77 693 640 18.4% 10.4% 10.5% 39.3% -4.2 -5 11
Mets 80 82 694 747 7.6% 5.2% 6.8% 19.6% 6.5 11 -6
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Reds 91 71 701 643 50.0% 11.7% 8.1% 69.8% 3.8 -14 -17
Cardinals 89 73 758 676 35.7% 13.0% 9.7% 58.4% 2.0 27 -2
Brewers 80 82 701 699 8.3% 4.8% 6.0% 19.1% -4.7 2 34
Pirates 77 85 611 693 4.9% 2.9% 4.3% 12.0% 5.3 -57 -59
Astros 69 93 630 745 0.8% 0.4% 0.8% 2.0% 5.7 25 -11
Cubs 65 97 630 744 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% -6.1 -26 -6
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Giants 87 75 660 638 39.4% 6.1% 6.4% 51.8% 2.5 -12 -10
Dodgers 87 75 659 659 38.3% 6.2% 6.8% 51.3% 11.6 18 -31
Diamondbacks 80 82 681 683 13.9% 3.5% 4.9% 22.4% -3.7 -12 10
Rockies 77 85 784 782 7.9% 2.2% 3.5% 13.6% -5.5 37 52
Padres 65 97 604 694 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% -10.6 -43 5

W: Projected final 2012 wins
L: Projected final 2012 losses
RS: Projected final 2012 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2012 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: 2012 revised projected wins minus 2012 pre-season projected wins
RS+/-: 2012 revised projected runs scored minus 2012 pre-season projected runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2012 revised projected runs allowed minus 2012 pre-season projected runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

The Yankees have regained their rightful place at the top of the division, although they can lose that tomorrow pretty easily.  They’re projecting to end the year almost five wins worse than they originally projected to, but at least so far no one aside from Texas in the AL looks like they’re likely to be much better.

The biggest surprise for me here is the White Sox, who are nine games ahead of their pre-season projections and now have a greater than 50% chance at their division.  There is little evidence of luck in their component stats, so they haven’t gotten lucky in terms of wins vs. actual performance so far this year.  Whether it will continue is the question, but no one else in their division looks all that great so why not? 

I am getting way too much schadenfreude out of the Phillies now projecting to fourth and Cliff Lee having 0 wins despite a 3.00 ERA.  Good choice Cliff!  THe Nationals now hold a slight edge over the Braves in a pretty balanced division from top to bottom.

The Reds have passed St. Louis in the NL Central, which currently looks like a two team race.  The Cubs and Padres are probably duking it out for worst team in baseball, which should please Twins and Astros fans.

The Dodgers are still the biggest overall gainer vs. pre-season projections although now it appears they’ll be neck and neck with San Francisco for the NL West. 

There are still four months left, so a lot of this can/will change.  So consider it more of a checkpoint than a prediction.

--Posted at 7:29 am by SG / 47 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, April 25, 2012

2012 MLB Starting Pitching Through April 24

TeamIPTBFRAERAFIPxFIPBB/BFK/BF
Nationals104.74012.151.722.032.855.5%24.2%
Cardinals112.04392.732.573.063.425.7%17.8%
Rangers120.74972.832.763.253.907.6%19.1%
Pirates86.73543.012.83.103.867.3%14.7%
Phillies117.34733.142.843.173.205.3%20.1%
White Sox110.74423.173.093.423.637.9%23.8%
Athletics122.04953.322.953.634.196.1%13.3%
Marlins100.34143.503.413.303.516.5%18.4%
Giants107.74393.593.513.663.806.8%19.6%
Dodgers104.74353.613.013.633.809.4%21.8%
Rays107.34533.773.444.164.319.9%16.1%
Blue Jays109.74434.023.785.454.329.3%13.5%
Tigers95.34064.253.873.293.436.2%21.4%
Reds106.04484.423.993.924.236.5%14.3%
Angels106.04404.504.334.243.405.9%20.2%
Mariners107.74544.514.433.623.885.9%18.3%
Mets96.34184.583.923.623.257.7%20.8%
Indians84.03674.614.184.194.319.0%13.9%
Astros108.34664.654.244.144.028.2%16.7%
Diamondbacks108.04564.754.334.173.687.5%18.4%
Cubs106.04554.754.253.423.638.8%21.8%
Braves101.74304.784.163.803.999.1%19.3%
Brewers102.74414.914.823.913.607.0%21.8%
Padres104.04454.934.153.923.8511.0%19.8%
Orioles100.34335.024.224.334.159.5%18.7%
Royals88.03865.324.814.114.4911.7%16.8%
Rockies88.33905.404.894.964.839.5%12.6%
Red Sox94.34135.725.634.924.229.9%17.9%
Yankees96.34276.175.514.353.446.1%21.1%
Twins95.04237.016.735.504.386.9%13.0%

FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
xFIP: Expected fielding-independent pitching

Twins pitching vs. the Yankees: 2-2, 6.09 RA
Twins pitching vs. the rest of the league: 3-11, 5.88 RA

Remember how the Yankees’ starting pitching was supposed to be a strength?  Now they’re hoping a 40 year old who hasn’t pitched in a year can ride in and save the day.

CC should be fine.  I think Nova’s a good bet for continued success thanks to the big improvement in his peripherals.  Whether that makes him a 2 or a 3 I don’t know, but it’s probably safer to think he’s a 3.  Kuroda will also be ok I think, but I don’t think he’s a 2 in the AL.  It’d be nice if Phil Hughes wasn’t awful, because with Michael Pineda looking less and less likely to pitch this year Andy Pettitte could in theory fill one hole between Hughes and Freddy Garcia, but he can’t fill two.  My guess is Garcia’s start on Saturday will be his last for this turn in the rotation.

Despite what they’ve shown to date I’d bet a reasonable amount of money the Yankees will not remain the second worst starting rotation in MLB by the end of the year.  I think they have a chance to crack the top 20.

--Posted at 9:51 am by SG / 21 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, April 24, 2012

2012 MLB Offenses through April 23

TmR/GBR/G
NYY6.066.18
TEX5.765.83
ATL5.474.71
CLE5.295.08
TOR5.124.65
BOS5.075.18
STL4.945.15
COL4.804.91
TBR4.754.57
HOU4.474.33
CHW4.444.45
SFG4.444.49
LAD4.414.34
DET4.383.85
ARI4.294.22
MIL4.294.14
BAL4.254.27
LgAvg4.204.24
LAA4.194.02
MIA3.804.01
MIN3.714.04
CHC3.653.01
WSN3.623.87
KCR3.564.20
SDP3.533.41
SEA3.532.96
NYM3.504.12
CIN3.313.36
OAK2.893.09
PHI2.823.13
PIT2.001.87

R/G: Runs scored per game
BR/G: Linear weights batting runs per game

Yes, I realize posting this means the Yankees will not score for the next week.

 

--Posted at 7:52 am by SG / 38 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, April 22, 2012

How have the first two weeks of the 2012 MLB season changed team projections?

We’re roughly about 10% of the way throught the 2012 regular season, which is a pretty small sample size to make sweeping observations about how good or bad teams are.  That doesn’t mean that what’s happened to this point isn’t important, because it is.  I wanted to see what teams have seen the biggest shifts in their outlooks based on how they projected coming into the year compared what they have done since.

The way I looked at this involves three basic steps.

1) Get 2012 projections.  In this case I’m using the average of the 2012 MLB projection blowout that I ran at the beginning of April.
2) Estimate revised team strength.  For now, this is just a basic weighted average of the team’s projections heading into the year and their Pythagenpat performance to this point.  I’m not making any adjustments for injuries/roster changes/etc., yet,  although as we get deeper into the season I’ll probably do that.
3) Run the rest of the 2012 MLB season through my Monte Carlo simulator and see what happens.  This includes a variable that alters team strength in each iteration to account for things that projections can’t account for.

Here’s what it says.

Date 4/22/2012
Iterations 100000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Yankees 94 68 848 718 49.0% 14.1% 24.0% 87.1% -0.8 12 7
Rays 87 75 764 695 23.9% 15.0% 34.6% 73.5% -2.0 -1 12
Red Sox 83 79 828 765 13.9% 11.2% 28.1% 53.1% -7.6 -2 32
Blue Jays 81 81 780 775 11.6% 7.8% 21.4% 40.9% -0.5 6 0
Orioles 70 92 712 812 1.6% 1.9% 6.2% 9.7% 0.1 -1 -6
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Tigers 88 74 780 730 46.6% 6.1% 17.7% 70.4% 2.9 -4 -6
Indians 86 76 779 758 33.4% 8.2% 22.3% 63.9% 3.6 12 7
White Sox 78 84 706 755 11.2% 4.4% 12.9% 28.5% 1.6 -1 -18
Royals 70 92 697 771 4.5% 0.8% 5.6% 10.9% -4.8 -8 6
Twins 70 92 720 824 4.2% 0.9% 3.7% 8.8% -1.6 -11 3
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 99 63 822 679 78.2% 7.4% 8.0% 93.6% 8.4 15 -24
Angels 85 77 738 667 17.0% 16.4% 28.9% 62.3% -5.1 -3 6
Mariners 73 89 672 734 2.8% 3.2% 7.8% 13.8% -1.5 -10 -7
Athletics 72 90 687 739 2.0% 2.8% 9.0% 13.8% -4.1 -20 -17
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Braves 90 72 734 664 32.5% 11.3% 23.7% 67.5% 2.3 20 -2
Phillies 88 74 677 611 25.9% 12.4% 21.6% 59.9% -1.4 -21 -17
Nationals 88 74 674 639 27.5% 10.4% 24.4% 62.3% 3.8 -8 -17
Marlins 82 80 699 672 11.3% 8.4% 18.2% 37.9% -1.8 -8 -9
Mets 74 88 677 749 2.8% 3.0% 8.5% 14.3% 0.2 -6 -3
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Cardinals 94 68 740 662 53.9% 10.5% 16.8% 81.1% 7.2 9 -17
Brewers 86 76 700 677 21.2% 9.5% 19.0% 49.7% 1.2 1 13
Reds 84 78 699 665 18.7% 9.6% 21.5% 49.7% -2.9 -16 5
Pirates 73 89 639 726 3.3% 1.8% 6.2% 11.3% 1.5 -29 -26
Cubs 68 94 652 757 1.8% 1.6% 2.8% 6.2% -3.2 -4 7
Astros 66 96 607 747 1.2% 0.3% 1.2% 2.7% 1.9 3 -8
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Giants 85 77 672 649 29.6% 5.3% 14.9% 49.8% 0.6 0 2
Dodgers 83 79 649 674 22.7% 5.3% 11.1% 39.1% 8.1 8 -17
Diamondbacks 83 79 687 677 22.8% 4.3% 14.1% 41.2% -1.3 -6 3
Rockies 81 81 751 744 20.1% 4.9% 12.6% 37.6% -1.2 3 13
Padres 72 90 638 690 4.8% 1.4% 5.1% 11.3% -3.5 -9 2

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: 2012 revised projected wins minus 2012 pre-season projected wins
RS+/-: 2012 revised projected runs scored minus 2012 pre-season projected runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2012 revised projected runs allowed minus 2012 pre-season projected runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Good thing for Cliff Lee he signed with the young upstart Phillies instead of the old decrepit Yankees.  And remember how the Rangers and Angels looked to be neck and neck heading into the year?  Yeah.  The Dodgers seem to have snuck their way into the division race now, but other than that the division standings look pretty similar to how they did entering the season.

And here’s a chart that shows the changes in revised team wins projections for each team.

TM W+/-
Rangers 8.4
Dodgers 8.1
Cardinals 7.2
Nationals 3.8
Indians 3.6
Tigers 2.9
Braves 2.3
Astros 1.9
White Sox 1.6
Pirates 1.5
Brewers 1.2
Giants 0.6
Mets 0.2
Orioles 0.1
Blue Jays -0.5
Yankees -0.8
Rockies -1.2
Diamondbacks -1.3
Phillies -1.4
Mariners -1.5
Twins -1.6
Marlins -1.8
Rays -2.0
Reds -2.9
Cubs -3.2
Padres -3.5
Athletics -4.1
Royals -4.8
Angels -5.1
Red Sox -7.6

The Rangers have been destroying the competition and look like they’re probably the best team in baseball.  The Dodgers and Cardinals are the biggest positive surprises in the National League so far.  The Angels are the biggest disappointment in the AL.

But the Red Sox have to be the most pleasant surprise in baseball for me.

--Posted at 9:17 am by SG / 62 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, April 3, 2012

CAIRO 2012 v1.0 and Final Pre-season MLB Standings Projection

I’ve uploaded the final pre-season 2012 CAIRO projections and projected standings.  They can be downloaded here.

cairo_2012_v1.0.zip

Yeah, I know Opening Day was technically last week.  Sue me.

Here are the standings and of course, the pie charts.  I should be posting more projected standings from other systems later today, so I’ll save the disclaimers and explanations for after that’s all done.

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL East NYA 96 66 848 713 52.8% 19.6% 11.1% 83.5% 86 - 106
AL East BOS 91 71 857 751 23.7% 21.0% 16.1% 60.8% 81 - 101
AL East TAM 91 71 765 667 22.4% 25.7% 14.9% 63.0% 81 - 101
AL East TOR 79 83 771 793 0.8% 2.4% 3.1% 6.2% 69 - 89
AL East BAL 70 92 736 838 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 60 - 80
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL Central DET 87 75 803 741 55.2% 1.3% 10.3% 66.8% 77 - 97
AL Central CLE 84 78 759 721 36.4% 2.4% 9.3% 48.0% 74 - 94
AL Central CHA 74 88 699 806 3.0% 0.2% 0.8% 4.0% 64 - 84
AL Central KC 73 89 682 754 3.6% 0.2% 0.8% 4.6% 63 - 83
AL Central MIN 71 91 725 815 1.8% 0.0% 0.3% 2.1% 61 - 81
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL West TEX 93 69 809 685 54.2% 12.7% 17.3% 84.1% 83 - 103
AL West LAA 92 70 739 640 44.7% 14.3% 14.6% 73.6% 82 - 102
AL West OAK 74 88 685 753 0.5% 0.3% 0.9% 1.7% 64 - 84
AL West SEA 73 89 669 742 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 1.2% 63 - 83
AL WC1 93
AL WC2 90
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL East PHI 91 71 690 610 51.0% 15.1% 9.0% 75.0% 81 - 101
NL East ATL 86 76 705 664 20.5% 16.4% 10.2% 47.1% 76 - 96
NL East WAS 85 77 669 632 17.7% 12.8% 9.7% 40.1% 75 - 95
NL East FLA 83 79 710 694 10.3% 8.6% 7.0% 25.9% 73 - 93
NL East NYN 74 88 665 737 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 2.2% 64 - 84
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL Central STL 89 73 728 654 47.2% 11.1% 9.4% 67.7% 79 - 99
NL Central MIL 86 76 695 646 29.2% 11.6% 11.8% 52.6% 76 - 96
NL Central CIN 85 77 707 670 22.7% 10.8% 11.2% 44.8% 75 - 95
NL Central PIT 71 91 653 743 0.6% 0.3% 1.0% 1.9% 61 - 81
NL Central CHN 71 91 648 748 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 61 - 81
NL Central HOU 61 101 584 752 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 51 - 71
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL West SF 85 77 663 634 36.5% 5.2% 10.2% 51.9% 75 - 95
NL West ARI 84 78 692 674 33.9% 3.0% 9.2% 46.0% 74 - 94
NL West COL 82 80 755 750 21.2% 2.9% 6.6% 30.7% 72 - 92
NL West SD 76 86 635 674 4.1% 0.9% 1.6% 6.6% 66 - 86
NL West LAN 75 87 622 671 4.3% 0.3% 2.5% 7.1% 65 - 85
NL WC1 90
NL WC2 88

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
PS%: Total percentage team qualified for the postseason (DIV + WC1 + WC2)
W 1 Std: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 7:45 am by SG / 34 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, February 7, 2012

CAIRO 2012 v0.5 and More Somewhat Useless Projected Standings

I’ve uploaded the latest version of the 2012 MLB CAIRO projections. They can be downloaded here.

The only changes from version 0.4 were moving players who were signed/traded to their new teams.  I think this will probably be the last release until right before Opening Day unless I find any issues.

I figured since I’ve updated again I’d run another set of projected standings so here is what they look like.

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL East NYA 97 65 844 692 54.3% 22.5% 8.0% 84.8%
AL East TAM 92 70 772 660 23.2% 27.4% 14.1% 64.8%
AL East BOS 92 70 862 745 22.1% 27.0% 15.3% 64.4%
AL East TOR 78 84 758 795 0.4% 1.2% 2.6% 4.1%
AL East BAL 70 92 734 847 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL Central DET 88 74 814 741 60.7% 1.6% 12.7% 75.0%
AL Central CLE 84 78 763 729 32.1% 0.8% 9.5% 42.4%
AL Central CHA 74 88 705 805 3.5% 0.2% 1.0% 4.7%
AL Central KC 74 88 687 762 3.3% 0.0% 0.8% 4.1%
AL Central MIN 67 95 720 861 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL West TEX 92 70 812 695 51.2% 8.6% 17.0% 76.8%
AL West LAA 91 71 741 653 47.0% 9.9% 16.6% 73.5%
AL West OAK 76 86 685 735 0.7% 0.6% 1.7% 2.9%
AL West SEA 74 88 673 729 1.2% 0.2% 1.0% 2.4%
AL WC1 94
AL WC2 91
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL East PHI 92 70 701 605 60.8% 12.4% 9.1% 82.2%
NL East WAS 86 76 676 625 18.6% 18.2% 9.1% 45.8%
NL East ATL 85 77 700 676 13.2% 12.5% 11.0% 36.7%
NL East FLA 82 80 708 699 7.3% 8.0% 7.1% 22.3%
NL East NYN 75 87 670 733 0.3% 1.2% 1.8% 3.2%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL Central STL 90 72 737 654 47.8% 12.4% 10.3% 70.5%
NL Central CIN 87 75 715 665 27.3% 11.6% 12.1% 51.0%
NL Central MIL 86 76 696 645 24.6% 12.3% 11.7% 48.6%
NL Central CHN 71 91 650 745 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
NL Central PIT 68 94 649 764 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4%
NL Central HOU 60 102 584 773 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL West SF 85 77 663 630 38.1% 3.1% 8.4% 49.5%
NL West ARI 84 78 659 634 33.5% 3.6% 8.9% 46.1%
NL West COL 81 81 761 759 18.3% 3.0% 6.6% 27.9%
NL West SD 76 86 633 668 5.2% 0.8% 2.2% 8.2%
NL West LAN 75 87 621 669 4.9% 0.7% 1.8% 7.3%
NL WC1 90
NL WC2 88

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card

These look more realistic to me than the last set I ran with Marcel.  Probably a bit high on the Yankees, but since CAIRO was created to make the Yankees look better than they are that stands to reason.

I am a bit surprised that Washington now projects better than Atlanta, even if it’s just a one game edge.  The only other major differences from this and the Marcel version is St. Louis at the top of the NL Central and San Francisco and Arizona above Colorado, both of which make sense to me.

Anyway, it’s still early, this is still not that useful, etc.,

--Posted at 9:58 am by SG / 43 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, January 28, 2012

Still Too Early 2012 MLB Standings Projection

Instead of running these with CAIRO this time I used Marcel, mainly out of curiosity in seeing what an unbiased projection that was not created to make the Yankees look better than they are would say.

It says this.

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL East NYA 92 70 785 682 45.3% 20.3% 10.4% 76.0%
AL East BOS 90 72 830 750 27.9% 26.1% 10.8% 64.8%
AL East TAM 88 74 717 646 23.7% 21.2% 12.2% 57.1%
AL East TOR 81 81 723 727 3.0% 6.9% 6.8% 16.7%
AL East BAL 70 92 694 806 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL Central DET 84 78 747 708 43.0% 2.4% 10.1% 55.4%
AL Central CLE 83 79 722 708 30.6% 2.9% 7.8% 41.3%
AL Central CHA 79 83 686 703 15.2% 1.5% 4.2% 20.9%
AL Central KC 79 83 691 714 10.8% 1.9% 4.1% 16.9%
AL Central MIN 68 94 693 813 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL West LAA 87 75 719 663 43.7% 6.1% 11.4% 61.2%
AL West TEX 87 75 765 707 38.2% 6.9% 13.4% 58.6%
AL West OAK 82 80 682 674 14.9% 3.1% 7.4% 25.3%
AL West SEA 76 86 649 689 3.2% 0.7% 1.6% 5.5%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL East PHI 90 72 689 615 44.8% 16.5% 10.7% 72.0%
NL East ATL 89 73 668 608 38.2% 19.2% 9.9% 67.3%
NL East WAS 83 79 645 634 10.8% 10.3% 8.1% 29.2%
NL East FLA 80 82 682 690 5.7% 5.2% 5.4% 16.3%
NL East NYN 74 88 630 680 0.6% 1.5% 1.2% 3.2%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL Central CIN 89 73 719 647 60.4% 8.4% 10.9% 79.7%
NL Central STL 84 78 708 681 24.6% 10.7% 7.0% 42.2%
NL Central MIL 81 81 678 672 13.1% 6.7% 7.7% 27.5%
NL Central PIT 72 90 657 732 1.6% 0.2% 1.0% 2.8%
NL Central CHN 70 92 668 761 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 1.0%
NL Central HOU 66 96 617 749 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL West COL 85 77 749 711 32.1% 6.4% 10.9% 49.4%
NL West ARI 85 77 685 656 30.8% 7.3% 10.8% 48.9%
NL West SF 85 77 629 606 29.6% 5.4% 11.3% 46.3%
NL West LAN 76 86 618 659 4.1% 1.5% 2.7% 8.2%
NL West SD 75 87 608 653 3.4% 0.6% 2.5% 6.4%

Div: Percent of time team won division
WC 1: Percent of time team won first wild card
WC 2: Percent of time team won second wild card

We still don’t know if there will be a second wild card yet, so you can chop off that column and subtract that percentage from the team’s over playoff percentage. 

Because Marcel regresses more heavily than other projections and because it assumes every one who hasn’t played in MLB projects as league average, you see a tighter spread here than you’ll see in other projected standings.  The standard deviation for team wins in my last CAIRO projections was about 9.  In this version it’s 7.1.  That may be more realistic if you think about how little we really know about how good/bad players and teams are, even though what will actually happen in 2012 will show a much bigger spread more in line with other projected standings.

Here are the average win totals for the placings in each division and for the two wild cards.

Div Place Avg W
AL East 1 96
AL East 2 91
AL East 3 86
AL East 4 80
AL East 5 69
Div Avg W
AL Central 1 89
AL Central 2 83
AL Central 3 79
AL Central 4 75
AL Central 5 67
Div Avg W
AL West 1 92
AL West 2 86
AL West 3 81
AL West 4 74
AL WC 1 91
AL WC2 88
Div Avg W
NL East 1 94
NL East 2 88
NL East 3 83
NL East 4 78
NL East 5 72
Div Avg W
NL Central 1 92
NL Central 2 85
NL Central 3 80
NL Central 4 74
NL Central 5 69
NL Central 6 63
Div Avg W
NL West 1 91
NL West 2 85
NL West 3 81
NL West 4 77
NL West 5 71
NL WC1 89
NL WC2 87

What this shows is that on average a team needed 96 wins to win the AL East, etc.,.

Some obvious things to consider would be:

- the difference between Yu Darvish (and other imports) and a league average pitcher
- prospects who project better than league average
- players who switched to parks that will affect their projections since Marcel does not park-adjust

Despite all that, the ordinal rankings seem reasonable.  The only differences between this and CAIRO in that regard are that I have St. Louis ahead of Cincinnati and the Diamondbacks and Giants ahead of Colorado.

This is current through Francisco Cordero signing with Toronto, and assumes Prince Fielder at 1B and Miguel Cabrera playing a terrible version of 3B for Detroit in 70% of their games, and DHing in 25% of them. 

--Posted at 8:19 am by SG / 25 Comments | - (0)




Monday, September 12, 2011

Down The Stretch They Come

Instead of just throwing a bunch of percentages up here like I’d normally do right about now, I wanted to take a more granular look at the remaining schedule for the AL postseason contenders.

The Yankees have won 88 games.  The teams in the AL who can exceed that this point are Boston, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Texas, LAAAAAA of AA, Cleveland, the White Sox and Toronto.  If all those teams won the rest of their games, here’s where they’d end the year.

Team W L GR Max
NYY 88 57 17 105
BOS 85 61 16 101
DET 84 62 16 100
TB 81 64 17 98
TEX 83 64 15 98
LAA 80 66 16 96
CLE 72 72 18 90
CWS 73 72 17 90
TOR 74 73 15 89


Because most of those teams play at least a few games against each other, they can’t all win all their remaining games.  Cleveland has three games left with the Rangers and four games left with the White Sox, for example.  So if they win all their games, Texas can only win at most 93, and the White Sox can only win 86, etc.,  I feel comfortable in saying that it’s not likely either Cleveland or the White Sox will win more games than the Yankees over the rest of the year.  For the purposes of assessing the Yankees’ postseason chances, Detroit’s a non-factor in this scenario, because they can’t contend for the wild card AND win more games than the Yankees.

Toronto plays nothing but teams on that list for the rest of the year, with two vs. Boston, three vs. the Yankees, four vs. the Angels, three vs. the Rays, and three vs. the White Sox.  I’m going to go out on a limb and say they’ll lose at least two of those.  So I’m going to only look at the other teams.

Team NYY BOS DET TB TEX LAA
NYY 3 6
BOS 3 4
DET
TB 6 4
TEX 3
LAA 3


Texas and California have three games left against each other.

Tampa Bay has six games left vs. the Yankees and four games vs. Boston.

The Yankees have those six games vs. the Rays and three games vs. Boston.

Detroit gets to beat up on cream puffs for the rest of the year, and are right now the team with the highest playoff probability in the American League.  So I’m going to say they’re in.

That means you’ve got five teams fighting for three playoff spots. 

The first number to think about is that 96 from Anaheim.  If they get there, that means Texas can only get to 95. So 96 wins is effectively the clinching number to eliminate the AL west runner-up from the wild card.  That obviously goes down each time Texas and LAA lose.

If Tampa Bay can get to 98, that means Boston can only get to 97 and the Yankees can only get to 99.  So getting to that 97 from Boston is the bar for the Yankees, although it would only be a tie.  Again, that obviously goes down as the Rays/Red Sox lose.

That means the Yankees’ magic number for tying for a postseason spot is nine, and for taking one outright is 10.  In the event that the Yankees and Red Sox tied for the last spot, the season series between them wouldn’t matter, and there’d be a one game play-in.

Which the Sox would win handily.

--Posted at 9:39 am by SG / 72 Comments | - (0)




Monday, September 5, 2011

Monte Carlo Standings and Postseason Odds Through September 4, 2011

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Yankees 99 63 870 657 63.0% 36.7% 99.7%
Red Sox 98 64 860 694 36.9% 62.3% 99.3%
Rays 87 75 705 630 0.1% 0.9% 1.0%
Blue Jays 79 83 745 749 - - -
Orioles 64 98 694 841 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Tigers 89 73 740 724 94.2% - 94.2%
White Sox 82 80 672 681 4.0% - 4.0%
Indians 80 82 688 720 1.9% - 1.9%
Twins 71 91 662 791 - - -
Royals 67 95 706 782 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Rangers 91 71 815 696 92.1% 0.0% 92.1%
Angels 86 76 666 650 7.9% 0.0% 7.9%
Athletics 75 87 654 668 - - -
Mariners 69 93 574 678 - - -
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Phillies 103 59 736 555 98.0% 2.0% 100.0%
Braves 94 68 678 605 2.0% 95.4% 97.4%
Mets 80 82 723 733 - 0.0% 0.0%
Nationals 75 87 632 688 - - -
Marlins 73 89 647 717 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Brewers 95 67 723 659 98.7% 0.2% 98.9%
Cardinals 86 76 761 714 1.3% 2.1% 3.3%
Reds 81 81 751 711 - - -
Pirates 74 88 633 706 - - -
Cubs 70 92 664 768 - - -
Astros 56 106 610 787 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Diamondbacks 89 73 713 689 83.2% 0.1% 83.3%
Giants 85 77 575 585 15.9% 0.3% 16.2%
Dodgers 80 82 641 630 0.8% 0.0% 0.8%
Rockies 78 84 744 751 0.1% - 0.1%
Padres 71 91 614 637 - - -

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

Not looking like too much suspense aside from seeding at this point.

--Posted at 9:14 am by SG / 10 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, August 9, 2011

More on Run Differentials

Last week I looked at the Yankees’ run differential and made the point that actual runs scored and allowed can be a bit misleading, and that it’s probably more instructive to look at the context neutral value of the offensive events for and against a team to get a better sense of how good they have actually been.  For the hell of it I decided to look at this for all teams in MLB as of this morning.

Team RS RA bRS bRA RS - bRS RA - bRA Gap
Pirates 436 469 415 503 21 -34 55
Yankees 603 436 577 455 26 -19 45
Padres 431 438 413 448 18 -10 28
Reds 542 510 522 511 20 -1 21
Phillies 504 375 500 391 4 -16 20
Blue Jays 534 522 515 522 19 0 18
Braves 476 426 467 428 9 -2 11
Royals 505 551 509 566 -4 -15 11
Diamondbacks 516 502 499 493 17 9 9
Nationals 449 471 445 475 4 -4 7
Rays 485 452 481 453 4 -1 5
Angels 441 419 457 439 -16 -20 5
Cardinals 552 500 538 490 14 10 4
Indians 478 486 458 469 20 17 3
Rockies 528 536 519 529 9 7 2
Twins 449 559 420 532 29 27 2
Athletics 442 456 430 440 12 16 -5
White Sox 453 468 451 457 2 11 -9
Mets 518 507 525 504 -7 3 -10
Red Sox 625 479 628 472 -3 7 -11
Dodgers 418 456 429 454 -11 2 -13
Marlins 462 503 471 497 -9 6 -15
Mariners 376 439 362 409 14 30 -16
Rangers 589 490 582 466 7 24 -17
Brewers 512 486 508 462 4 24 -19
Astros 437 574 451 568 -14 6 -20
Orioles 462 598 473 586 -11 12 -23
Cubs 474 571 481 552 -7 19 -26
Giants 399 411 414 399 -15 12 -28
Tigers 508 514 512 484 -4 30 -35

RS/RA: Actual runs scored/allowed
bRS/bRA linear weights batting runs scored/allowed.
Gap: RS - bRS minus RA - bRA.  The larger the number, the more a team has outplayed their peripherals.  Basically, positive is bad here and negative is good.

What this table is saying is that, for example, the Yankees have scored about 26 more runs and allowed 19 fewer runs than their peripheral stats say they should have.  That doesn’t mean you should subtract 4.5 wins from their total on the season.  It just means that their Pythagenpat record/run differential is a bit misleading.  In the Yankees’ case they’ve got 73 Pythag wins and 69 actual wins, so they haven’t really taken advantage of this in actual wins. 

Contrast that with Pittsburgh, who’ve stumbled lately.  They were playing over their heads all year, and unfortunately the correction has been ugly.  At 55-59, they’re still two wins ahead of their 53-61 Pythag record, and if you look at that gap they are probably not even that good.

--Posted at 2:57 pm by SG / 9 Comments | - (0)




Monday, June 13, 2011

NY Times: With 18 Hits, the Yankees Are Humming Again

There was no meeting, no pep talk, no nothing after the Yankees were embarrassed by Boston last week. “Report at 4 o’clock the next day, that was it,” Curtis Granderson said. Every series has its own pace, its own rhythm. And at Yankee Stadium the thump-thump-thump of the Red Sox has given way to the off-key stylings of the Cleveland Indians..

The Boston series pissed me off to the point where I haven’t watched an inning of baseball since.  I suppose I should be happy that the Yankees are beating up on a slumping Indians team, but if anything it’s just a reminder to me about how pathetic they were against Boston.  Maybe I’d feel differently I’d watched the games.

I realize it’s not rational, but who said being a sports fan is rational?

--Posted at 9:34 am by SG / 76 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, June 2, 2011

A Brief Foray into Run Differentials and Component Stats

At this point in the season, the Yankees have the second best winning percentage in the AL.

Team a%
CLE .623
NYY .574
BOS .536
TEX .536
DET .527
TBR .527
SEA .509
LAA .500
TOR .500
OAK .474
CHW .466
BAL .463
KCR .455
MIN .315

Over a full season at the actual winning percentage the Yankees would be about a 93 win team, with Cleveland at 101.

Now of course over 1/3 of a season actual winning percentage can be misleading since teams might be winning or losing more games than their actual performance merits.  So you can look at something like Pythagenpat to get a better sense of how well a team has played so far and what it might mean going forward.

Team p%
NYY .629
CLE .582
TEX .563
TBR .543
TOR .542
BOS .540
LAA .506
OAK .496
DET .486
CHW .480
SEA .478
KCR .462
BAL .422
MIN .322


If you do that, the Yankees look more like a 102 win team, which would be eight wins better than Cleveland and 11 wins better than Boston.

Although Pythagenpat does a pretty good job of estimating a team’s level of play, their actual runs scored and runs allowed might be skewed due to better or worse than expected performances in high leverage situations that are not necessarily repeatable going forward.

You can use linear weights batting runs to account for that.  What’s nice about doing that is you can put offense and pitching/defense on the same scale if you use all the same components.

Team b%
NYY .599
TEX .568
BOS .562
CLE .559
TOR .533
TBR .526
OAK .526
LAA .524
DET .504
CHW .479
SEA .469
KCR .435
BAL .423
MIN .343

This method also shows that the Yankees have played better than any other team in the AL, and would have them at around 97 wins, five wins ahead of Cleveland and six games ahead of Boston.

We do need to be cognizant that how a team has played so far only tells us so much about how good they are now and how good they’ll be going forward.  Regression towards the mean, injuries/roster changes and a whole host of other things are going to have an impact on how a team does moving forward.

But at least as of right now, the Yankees have probably been the best team in the league and the difference isn’t trivial.

All this is moot when Rafael Soriano returns to blow games though.

--Posted at 6:20 pm by SG / 26 Comments | - (0)



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