The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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Blue Jays (54-50) @ Yankees (54-48), Saturday, July 26, 2014, 1:05pm
(92 Comments - 7/28/2014 10:14:35 am)

MLB.com: Cashman prioritizes adding bat before August
(13 Comments - 7/26/2014 10:34:05 am)

Blue Jays (54-49) @ Yankees (53-48), Friday, July 25, 2014, 7:05pm
(52 Comments - 7/26/2014 10:13:21 am)

CBS Sports: Yankees acquire Chris Capuano from Rockies for cash
(7 Comments - 7/25/2014 10:21:16 am)

Yankees.com: Victorious McCarthy continues to stabilize Yanks
(20 Comments - 7/24/2014 9:15:12 pm)

Rangers (40-61) @ Yankees (52-48), Thursday, July 24, 2014, 1:05pm
(55 Comments - 7/24/2014 5:28:17 pm)

Yankees.com: Phelps, Yanks take rain-shortened win over Rangers
(14 Comments - 7/24/2014 1:29:03 pm)

Rangers (40-60) @ Yankees (51-48), Wednesday, July 23, 2014, 7:05pm
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Dan Szymborski: Headley RoS ZiPS in Yankee Stadium
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Yankees.com: Newcomer Headley Yanks’ walk-off hero in 14th
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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Wednesday, October 24, 2012

2012 In Review - Robinson Cano

Robinson Cano had a good season that looks like a great season if you ignore context and pretend the postseason didn’t happen.  Unfortunately, we shouldn’t ignore context and the postseason did happen.  Here’s how his regular season numbers compared to his projections entering the year.

Projection PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP avg obp slg wOBA BR BR/650 BRAR
cairo 676 620 97 188 42 4 25 100 5 3 42 84 19 8 .303 .352 .504 .368 101 97 46
davenport 639 590 86 175 38 5 26 107 6 3 41 79 16 8 .297 .351 .510 .370 97 99 46
marcel 610 559 89 171 38 4 23 91 6 3 39 77 16 7 .306 .356 .512 .372 93 99 44
oliver 637 586 82 178 42 4 19 89 5 3 38 71 19 7 .304 .350 .486 .361 92 93 40
pecota 708 659 93 194 43 4 24 99 5 3 41 88 19 8 .295 .344 .482 .357 100 92 43
zips 663 609 92 182 41 5 25 103 6 3 40 76 19 8 .299 .347 .506 .365 99 97 45
average 655 601 94 182 41 4 24 98 6 3 40 79 18 8 .303 .351 .502 .365 98 97 45
Projection PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP avg obp slg wOBA BR BR/650 BRAR
cairo 697 640 100 194 43 4 26 103 6 4 44 86 19 8 .303 .352 .504 .368 104 97 48
davenport 697 644 94 191 41 5 28 117 7 3 45 86 17 9 .297 .351 .510 .370 106 99 51
marcel 697 639 102 195 43 5 26 104 7 3 45 88 18 8 .306 .356 .512 .372 107 99 51
oliver 697 641 90 195 46 4 21 97 5 3 42 78 21 8 .304 .350 .486 .361 100 93 44
pecota 697 649 92 191 42 4 24 97 5 3 40 87 18 8 .295 .344 .482 .357 99 92 42
zips 697 640 97 191 43 5 26 108 6 3 42 80 20 8 .299 .347 .506 .365 104 97 47
average 697 640 100 194 43 5 25 104 6 3 43 84 19 8 .303 .351 .503 .366 104 97 48
2012 697 627 105 196 48 1 33 94 3 2 61 96 22 7 .313 .379 .550 .398 119 111 62
diff 5 2 5 -4 8 1 -3 -1 18 12 3 -1 .010 .028 .047 .031
2012 League Avg 697 627 82 160 31 3 20 78 12 4 56 135 14 6 .255 .320 .411 .311 81 75
2011 697 638 106 192 47 7 29 121 8 2 39 98 18 12 .302 .349 .533 .375 110 103 54

diff: Difference between average projection and 2012 actual statistic
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position

The second set of projections, league average and 2011 stats are pro-rated to 2012 PA to allow a direct comparison.  League average is not adjusted for DNYS so mentally account for that.

The batting runs above are context-neutral.  Cano did not hit well with runners on base in 2012 and that needs to accounted for when assessing his value.  If you adjust his line with the difference between his context-neutral batting runs and his RE24 (batting runs based on the 24 different base-out states a hitter can face) he loses about 11 runs of value.  He was still the Yankees’ most valuable position player and still had a good year.  It’s just wasn’t as good as it may appear to be if you look at his surface stats.  Cano was just as good with his RE24 in 2010 as his raw numbers and was about eight runs better in RE24 than raw numbers in 2011 so it’s foolish to think he’s got some sort of flaw that makes him unclutch.

That being said, Cano set a record in the postseason with the longest hitless streak of AB ever (29).  He didn’t do so well in any of his other AB either as he went just 3 for 11 in those.  Think about that.  He hit .272 in the postseason if you take away his 29 AB hitless streak.  But he did draw a walk, which is something.

In his career Cano’s now hit .222/.267/.419 in the postseason.  Again, I don’t think he’s unclutch, but it’s annoying. 

With rumors swirling that he’s looking for a 10 year deal at “top of the market dollars” and given who he’s chosen as his agent I think it’s a realistic possibility that 2013 will be his last year in Yankee pinstripes.  I think that possibility is small, but I think committing to a 31 year old second baseman for 10 years is unwise.  I’d prefer a six year deal and could be okay with a seven year deal.  But anything more than that and I’d just as soon let him walk.  Second baseman have historically not aged well.  If you look at his nine most similar batters on Baseball Reference and what they did from age 31 on it’s also not exactly encouraging.  They averaged five more seasons and 10.2 WAR.  Similarity scores are more of a toy than an actual tool for rigid comparison but it at least gives us some of idea of what players sort of like Cano have done after age 30.

How much is 10.2 WAR worth?  Maybe $60M?  Does anyone see Cano signing for five years and $60M?  Of course, it’s possible he ages more like George Brett (27.1 WAR) or Ryne Sandberg (22.0 WAR) at which point he may be worth something like 8 years and $160M.  But that’s a pretty big gamble in my opinion.

It would stink to see him go, but it would stink worse to see him stinking things up as he heads to 40 stinking years old.  He’s not Albert Pujols, but it’s a similar situation.  Cardinals fans probably hated to see him go, but it was the prudent move for the franchise and just one year into that 10 year deal you’d have to imagine the Angels have buyer’s remorse.

It’s probably not something we have to worry about for the next 12 months though.

--Posted at 12:19 pm by SG / 69 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Player A vs. Player B

Player A: Age 32, 147 PA, .231/.286/.403, signed through 2016.
Player B: Age 32, 149 PA, .197/.235/.275, signed through 2021! <== Ha ha.

--Posted at 6:26 am by SG / 34 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, April 15, 2012

Yankees.com: Jeter’s homer helps Yankees outslug Angels

NEW YORK—Derek Jeter cracked a three-run homer and Ivan Nova turned in six effective innings for the victory as the Yankees defeated the Angels, 11-5, on Sunday at Yankee Stadium.

Mark Teixeira had two hits, including a run-scoring double, as part of a four-run third inning that sent Angels starter Jerome Williams to an early exit.

Jeter’s second blast of the year was a line drive into the right-field seats off Hisanori Takahashi in the fourth inning, opening up a seven-run lead and providing Nova with a large cushion to cruise toward his second victory of the year.

The Angels made it a three-run game by the seventh, when Albert Pujols knocked in a run with a single facing an ineffective Rafael Soriano, but David Robertson bailed the Yankees out of a bases-loaded jam to escape the inning.

It’s nice when the Yankee offense graces us with their presence, isn’t it?  Derek Jeter can’t carry this team alone all season.

Nova’s final line doesn’t look all that great, but I thought he pitched pretty well over most of the game.  He continued to show the separation in his walks and strikeouts that are an indication that he’s not pitching over his head with 2 BB and 8 K, but he gave up 2 HRs and 4 runs so it was a mixed outing.

The Yankees have won 5 of 6 after starting the year 0 for 3 against the juggernaut Rays.  The schadenfreude-lover in me also is happy that the Angels weren’t able to leave this series feeling they’ve “turned their season around” and that Albert Pujols didn’t really break out.  I still think they’re a good team and will be in contention until the end of the year, but let that start after tonight.

A 5-4 record feels meh, but it’s about where we should have realistically expected them to be at this point.  The home series against the Twins starting tomorrow seems like a good opportunity to try and move ahead of those expectations.

--Posted at 10:39 pm by SG / 17 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, April 14, 2012

NY Post: Sherman: A-Rod HRs help, hurt Yankees

That $30 million seduction looked bad then — to blend immortality with a payday — and worse now for two reasons: 1) The Yankees are trying to get under the $189 million luxury-tax threshold beginning in 2014 to gain the financial benefits that are part of the new collective bargaining agreement. Those $6 million bonuses, if triggered, would count toward the payroll in the season they are earned. 2) The 2009 revelation that Rodriguez used steroids at least during his Ranger years devalued A-Rod, the TV Show, for the Yankees/YES while assuring Rodriguez that the accomplishment is as regretted as celebrated.

You got a preview of, at the least, how little joy and fanfare there will be should Rodriguez keep climbing on the homer list by the minimalist reaction yesterday. It was not long ago that becoming the fifth-leading homer hitter ever would have unleashed a standing ovation, wall-to-wall coverage and the further elevating of a reputation. Instead, when A-Rod took Ervin Santana deep to open the third inning, there was, well, not much.

The way I see it, the best way for this to work out is for A-Rod to hit all those bonuses this year and next year so they have no impact on 2014.

Rodriguez can earn the $6 million bonuses for hitting 660 HRs, 715 HRs, 755 HRs, then for tying the HR record (currently 756) and then breaking it.  According to the CAIRO career projections I ran for Rodriguez his baseline career total for HRs was 699 and if he hit his 80% forecast it would get to 742. 

2012_% PA AB H HR
Baseline 13066 11308 3328 699
65% 13560 11732 3469 724
80% 13826 11962 3565 742

Better than expected health could probably push him closer to that 755-757 range, but I’m not sure expecting a 36-42 year old Rodriguez to start demonstrating better health than the 32-35 version did is particularly realistic.

He now needs 31 HRs over the next two years to get to 661.  CAIRO’s baseline had him at 35.  If he can do that, then we have to wait another 50 HRs for him to trigger that 715 HR bonus.  I’m going to go out on a limb and say that it wouldn’t happen in 2014, and I’d probably bet against it happening in 2015.  It may not be going out on the limb to say that it will NEVER happen. 

Point being, this is probably pretty low on the Yankees’ list of worries in getting to the $189M payroll Valhalla. 

The wording of the last two milestones is interesting.  Rodriguez would have to average 21 HRs a year over the rest of his contract (plus yesterday’s) to wind up at 756.  If Albert Pujols averages 52 over the same span, he’d end up at 757 HRs.  Wouldn’t it be hilarious if Rodriguez tied Barry Bonds in the first game of an Angels series, passed him in the second and then watched Pujols hit three HRs to break his record in the third game?  Technically, Rodriguez would have achieved his milestone.  But it wouldn’t have been worth anything 24 hours later.

Actually, it wouldn’t be hilarious.

--Posted at 7:42 am by SG / 10 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, December 8, 2011

Lohud: Yankees take right hander in Rule 5

In this morning’s Rule 5 draft, the Yankees took RHP Brad Meyers from the Nationals.

The Yankees lost no one.
...

UPDATE, 10:23 a.m.: There’s a report from Kansas City that the Royals have traded their pick, LHP Cesar Cabral out of the Red Sox system, to the Yankees.

I have to say I know nothing about either player.  I’d assume Cabral is an ace-in-training given his prior organization, but I’ll post their CAIRO projections in a minute.

Here you go.

mlbamid Last First Age Team Lg Role G GS W L IP H R ER HR BB SO BF RA ERA FIP WAR
455122 Meyers Brad 27 NYA AL SP 22 22 8 6 125 140 67 61 15 25 83 524 4.80 4.42 3.98 1.9
501627 Cabral Cesar 23 NYA AL RP 50 2 4 4 76 87 47 43 7 35 52 340 5.55 5.13 4.39 0.0

Meyers doesn’t have overpowering velocity, but has very good control.

Fastball: Sits in the 92-94 mph range at times, but he sits comfortably in the 89-91 mph range with some nice sink

Full scouting report here.

Sounds like a Darrell Rasner type, and profiles similarly.  That’s not a bad thing to have around for depth at the very least.  I think the CAIRO may be a little optimistic, but seems like he’s a nice gamble to take.

Cabral was taken in them 2010 Rule 5 draft by Tampa Bay before being returned to Boston, so he’s apparently someone who’s interesting as a lefty arm out of the bullpen (where he’s pitched the last two years).  His projection isn’t great, but he appears to have decent stuff.

Scouting Report: Lefty with a solid frame and a smooth delivery. Pitches exclusively from the stretch. Fastball sits between 88-92 mph and tops out at 95 mph. Secondary pitches include an excellent 81-83 mph circle changeup, a mid-70s slurvey curveball, and a sharp 79-82 mph slider. Gets a lot of swings and misses with his changeup, which has nice downward movement

Full scouting report here.

In other news.

Foxsports:Source: Darvish to be posted Thursday

Japanese right-hander Yu Darvish will be posted on Thursday, taking the first step toward pitching in the majors next season, according to a source familiar with his plans.

Early Thursday, Darvish confirmed on his blog that he will use the system. ‘‘I have decided to use the posting system,’’ he wrote. ‘‘I wanted to tell my fans directly, so that is why I am posting this on my blog.’‘

The sudden availability of Darvish, a potential top-of-the-rotation starter, will be a major attraction for clubs frustrated by the lack of elite starters in this year’s free-agent market and the high asking prices on quality pitchers in trades.



Also.

Jon Heyman’s Twitter: [C.J.] Wilson signs with angels $75M 5 yrs

That Wilson deal looks like a bargain.  I’m a bit surprised no one else would go beyond that. Seems like a better value than what Darvish is eventually going to cost for probably similar production.

Yahoo! Tim Brown: Pujols agrees to terms with Angels on landmark deal.

Pujols should fill the massive hole left by trading Jeff Mathis.

--Posted at 11:03 am by SG / 119 Comments | - (0)




Friday, September 30, 2011

2011 ALDS Preview: Tigers vs. Yankees

The first obstacle in the quest to end the dreaded curse of The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske is the Detroit Tigers.

Seriously, it has been 694 days, 11 hours, 15 minutes, and 45 seconds since the New York Yankees have won a World Series.  We have suffered long enough, haven’t we?  When will this infernal madness end?

So how big of an obstacle are the Tigers?  Let’s take a look.

First, I’ll acknowledge the obvious fact that the Tigers played in and won the AL Central which is probably the weakest division in the AL.

I’ll then say that it doesn’t matter.  This is a very good team, and it’s not a stretch to envision them representing the AL in the World Series.

If you read the Rays/Rangers preview you can skip the next paragraph.

I don’t particularly find any series previews that focus on what a team did in the preceding full season of much use.  It doesn’t really matter if a team scored 5.2 runs per game and allowed 4.2 runs per game over the preceding six months.  Rosters change, injuries happen, players come and go, talent changes, and player and team performance is often subject to fluctuations that are not predictive.  What I want to know is how many runs will the team and roster as currently configured score and allow.  Because of that, for these previews I’ll be using projections in lieu of 2011 stats.  Despite having my own system in CAIRO, I’m going to use the Hardball Times’s Oliver forecasts since I haven’t had the time to re-run CAIRO for this year.  Oliver is updated weekly during the season and includes 2011 MLEs for players who saw time in the minors. 

The biggest consideration in trying to see how any series may shape up is allocating playing time.  So here are depth charts for the two teams, based on the assumption that each team will make 25 outs at the plate over 5 games and that pitchers will combine for 45 innings.  Since I didn’t have official postseason rosters while writing parts of these, some of it is guesswork and is subject to change.

Here are the Oliver projections for the Tigers’ postseason position players.

Name Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Jackson, Austin CF 21 .263/.315/.374 14 2.24 .303 .311 .300
Kelly, Don 3B 21 .268/.312/.413 14 2.34 .314 .286 .317
Young, Delmon LF 21 .283/.314/.446 14 2.52 .327 .344 .320
Cabrera, Miguel 1B 21 .334/.422/.602 12 4.11 .435 .455 .429
Martinez, Victor C 21 .312/.365/.480 13 3.08 .367 .372 .364
Peralta, Jhonny SS 21 .270/.324/.426 14 2.50 .326 .339 .321
Avila, Alex C 21 .270/.351/.456 14 2.89 .350 .327 .356
Dirks, Andy RF 21 .265/.311/.415 14 2.45 .315 .294 .318
Santiago, Ramon 2B 21 .276/.319/.394 14 2.30 .307 .304 .308
Starter Total 189 .282/.337/.444 125 24.42 .338 .338 .338
Bench Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Betemit, Wilson IF 0 .259/.323/.424 0 0.00 .325 .298 .334
Ordonez, Magglio OF 0 .282/.344/.412 0 0.00 .334 .352 .329
Raburn, Ryan OF 0 .268/.317/.465 0 0.00 .334 .349 .323
Rhymes, Will 2B 0 .272/.326/.361 0 0.00 .303 .283 .307
Inge, Brandon 3B 0 .230/.304/.384 0 0.00 .303 .328 .294
Worth, Danny IF 0 .229/.284/.328 0 0.00 .272 .283 .263
Kelly, Don UT 0 .268/.312/.413 0 0.00 .314 .286 .317
Santos, Omir C 0 .228/.255/.333 0 0.00 .255 .264 .250
Bench Total
Team Total 189 .282/.337/.444 125 24.42 .338 .338 .338

Outs: Outs at the plate (assumes 25 outs per 9 innings, calculated as (1 - OBP) times PA + GDP per PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
vs. L/R: Projected wOBA splits vs. LHP/RHP using regressed platoon splits

Rather than guess about how the Tigers may allocate playing time, I just gave the expected starting lineup all 125 outs. 

The biggest problem here is Miguel Cabrera.  Cabrera’s pretty much the best hitter in the AL.  In fact, only one player has been a better hitter than him over the last three years, and that’s Albert Pujols.  That projected wOBA of .455 vs. LHP is terrifying for Game 1.  The Yankees probably don’t have much room for error facing Verlander, so the Cabrera/Sabathia matchup is probably going to be the one to watch.  You can see by the OBP of the rest of the team that keeping people like Austin Jackson, Don Kelly and Delmon Young off the bases in front of Cabrera is going to be imperative.

The Tigers overall don’t have much of a projected platoon split, so the Yankees’ lack of left-handed pitching shouldn’t be a big deal.

I don’t think any Tigers fans would disagree that the Yankees’ lineup is better.  Their hopes are going to lay on their pitching staff, and that’s not a bad position to be in.

Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Verlander, Justin SP1 14 4.8 3.11 2.89 3.05
Fister, Doug SP2 6 2.6 3.94 3.67 3.49
Scherzer, Max SP3 6 3.1 4.61 4.10 3.98
Porcello, Rick SP4 5 2.7 4.88 4.51 4.35
Penny, Brad SP5 0 0.0 5.43 4.85 4.65
Starter Total 31 13.3 3.85 3.54 3.52
Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Valverde, Jose CL 3 1.3 3.90 3.61 3.72
Benoit, Joaquin SU 3 1.1 3.25 3.01 3.10
Alburquerque, Al SU 2 0.9 4.20 3.89 3.71
Coke, Phil SU 2 1.0 4.40 4.07 3.68
Pauley, David MR 2 1.1 4.76 4.41 4.44
Perry, Ryan MR 1 0.5 4.61 4.27 4.12
Schlereth, Daniel MR 1 0.5 4.85 4.49 4.31
Marte, Luis LR 0 0.0 5.26 4.87 4.97
Below, Duane LR 0 0.0 5.49 5.08 5.33
LR 0 0.0
Reliever Total 14 6.4 4.12 3.81 3.75
Team Total 45 19.7 3.93 3.62 3.59

RA: Runs allowed per 9, calculated as 1.08*ERA
ERA: Earned runs allowed per 9
FIP: Fielding independent pitching

Justin Verlander’s obviously the man here.  He’s been the best pitcher in baseball this year and is a worthy MVP candidate.  He’s backed up by mid-season acquisition Doug Fister, who’s been sublime for the Tigers.  The Tigers are 9-2 in his 11 starts, and he’s pitched 70.1 innings and allowed just 19 runs.  He’s faced 273 batters and walked 5 of them.  Seriously.  He’s probably not quite that good, but he’d project as the second-best starter on the Yankees.

Jim Leyland has said that he will not pitch Verlander on three days rest, so I’m giving Rick Porcello five innings.  I don’t know if things would change if the Tigers go down 2-1.  If they did that, they could throw Fister in Game 5 and not use Porcello in the rotation at all.

The Tigers’ defense has been about average overall, not much different than the Yankees.  So I’m not going to bother with talking about that.

So, how about the Yankees’ projections?

Name Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Jeter, Derek SS 22 .306/.363/.416 14 2.83 .345 .369 .337
Granderson, Curtis CF 22 .259/.342/.496 14 3.24 .358 .314 .374
Cano, Robinson 2B 22 .312/.359/.511 14 3.38 .374 .358 .381
Rodriguez, Alex 3B 18 .289/.367/.527 11 2.89 .382 .389 .380
Teixeira, Mark 1B 22 .265/.357/.498 14 3.29 .369 .380 .364
Swisher, Nick RF 21 .271/.364/.475 13 3.03 .364 .375 .359
Posada, Jorge DH 16 .259/.345/.448 10 2.12 .347 .347 .347
Martin, Russell C 21 .252/.345/.380 14 2.39 .326 .344 .320
Gardner, Brett LF 19 .269/.353/.376 12 2.34 .326 .306 .332
Starter Total 183 .277/.355/.460 118 25.50 .355 .354 .355
Bench Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Montero, Jesus DH 4 .278/.329/.483 3 0.54 .348 .361 .340
Jones, Andruw OF 2 .251/.344/.502 1 0.30 .363 .381 .357
Nunez, Eduardo IF 0 .278/.308/.381 0 0.00 .301 .302 .300
Chavez, Eric 3B 4 .245/.296/.355 3 0.38 .288 .257 .300
Romine, Austin C 0 .246/.289/.364 0 0.00 .287 .300 .283
Dickerson, Chris OF 0 .239/.315/.341 0 0.00 .295 .272 .299
Pena, Ramiro IF 0 .239/.283/.327 0 0.00 .269 .256 .273
Cervelli, Francisco C 0 .263/.314/.365 0 0.00 .298 .310 .293
Bench Total 10 .260/.319/.435 7 1.22 .327 .323 .327
Team Total 193 .276/.353/.458 125 26.72 .353 .352 .354

I’ve relegated Jesus Montero to pinch-hitting status, since DH vs. LHP is effectively a non-position vs. Detroit.  I suppose we may see him pinch-hit for Posada if a one of Phil Coke/Daniel Schlereth is on the mound.  Or he could get a start if Posada doesn’t look so good.  Statistically, Posada’s projection vs. RHP is better than Montero’s so I suppose it’s the logical approach. I’m also not sanguine on A-Rod playing every inning so I’ve given Chavez four PA, and I’m assuming we may see Andruw Jones pinch-hit for TSBG in a late situation vs. a LHP where an XBH would be of additional benefit.

Oliver thinks the Yankees have the best offense in the postseason, and I’d agree with that.  Unfortunately, the Yankees have to pitch too.

Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Sabathia, CC SP1 14 5.8 3.70 3.43 3.28
Nova, Ivan SP2 12 6.4 4.77 4.36 4.33
Garcia, Freddy SP3 5 2.6 4.60 4.36 4.33
Colon, Bartolo SP4 0 0.0 4.82 4.04 3.97
Burnett, A.J. SP5 0 0.0 5.21 4.82 4.49
Hughes, Phil SP6 0 0.0 4.45 4.12 4.17
Betances, Dellin SP7 0 0.0 5.36 4.96 4.83
Brackman, Andrew SP8 0 0.0 6.80 6.30 5.88
Starter Total 31 14.7 4.26 3.94 3.86
Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Rivera, Mariano CL 3 1.0 3.03 2.81 2.89
Robertson, David SU 3 1.2 3.75 3.47 3.05
Soriano, Rafael SU 2 0.8 3.61 3.34 3.64
Logan, Boone SU 2 1.0 4.32 4.00 3.77
Wade, Cory MR 2 1.0 4.38 4.06 4.09
Ayala, Luis MR 2 1.0 4.50 4.17 3.92
Noesi, Hector MR 0 0.0 4.59 4.25 4.03
Proctor, Scott LR 0 0.0 5.78 5.35 5.21
Laffey, Aaron LR 0 0.0 5.56 5.15 4.59
Kontos, George LR 0 0.0 5.38 4.98 5.02
Reliever Total 14 6.0 3.86 3.57 3.48
Team Total 45 20.7 4.14 3.82 3.74

The assumption here is CC on three days rest.  I’m assuming that Burnett and Hughes won’t pitch even though they’re on the roster, but if they do pitch their innings would probably just replace Ayala or Wade’s and it shouldn’t make a big difference.

The Yankees probably have the worst projected rotation in the postseason.  CC’s as good as anyone, but after that there’s some concern about Nova and Garcia.  I do think that projection is a little bearish on Nova since we have evidence that his new slider has made a meaningful improvement that wouldn’t be captured in a projection system.

Nova pre-slider: 226 BF, 9.3% BB/BF, 11.5% K/BF, 5.19 RA, 4.29 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 4.92 xFIP
Nova post-slider: 278 BF, 7.5% BB/BF, 15.1% K/BF, 3.52 RA, 3.44 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 4.03 xFIP

The Yankee bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this year, and although the projections think most of them pitched above their head they’re probably still better than Detroit’s from top to bottom.  So the Yankees should be able to mitigate their slight disadvantage in the rotation by using the relievers aggressively.  I can imagine that any David Robertson/Miguel Cabrera battles are going to be must-see baseball.

These depth charts say this.

Team Gms RS RA wpct p162
DET 5 24.4 19.7 .600 97
NYA 5 26.7 20.7 .620 100

If I play the series out 10,000 times in my Monte Carlo simulator I get these odds.

Yankees: 53.9%
Tigers: 46.1%

If the Tigers do decide to use Verlander in Game 4 and Fister in Game 5 they improve to about a .612 wpct/99 win team.  Basically, those two teams are equivalent.  The Yankees get the slight edge of one extra home game if necessary.  In that case the odds look like this.

Yankees: 51.9%
Tigers: 48.1%

--Posted at 10:58 am by SG / 60 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, February 16, 2011

FOX Sports Exclusive: Would a blockbuster Pujols deal work?

WARNING: What you are about to read is pure speculation. It has not, to my knowledge, been discussed at any level. In fact, it is not even my idea.

Harold Reynolds mentioned the possibility Monday on MLB Network. My colleague, Jon Paul Morosi, informed me of it later that night. I then stole the idea from Morosi as if I were Lindsay Lohan in a jewelry store.

Albert Pujols for Mark Teixeira.

And, if that doesn’t work, Pujols for Ryan Howard.

Think it’s nuts? Think again.

Pujols for Teixeira is a way out for the Cardinals, who are running out of time in their quest to meet Pujols’ deadline for a new contract by the start of spring training.

Here are their 2011 CAIRO projections as Yankees over 650 PA.

 Player  PA AB  R H  2B 3B  HR RBI  SB CS  BB SO  HP GDP  avg obp  slg wOBA  BR BRAR  Def WAR
 Teixeira 650  554   96  153  36  1  32  109   1  1  82  109  9  12   .276  .376  .517  .385  101   34  3  3.7 
 Pujols 650  540   111  175  41  1  44  115   10  4  97  68  5  19   .323  .426  .645  .448  130   63  6  6.9 

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear-weights batting runs
BRAR: Batting runs above replacement level, position-adjusted
Def: Projected runs saved compared to an average 1B
WAR: Wins above replacement level (BRAR + Def divided by ten)

Yes, it works.  The Cardinals would never do it though.

--Posted at 12:59 pm by SG / 17 Comments | - (0)



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