Wednesday, April 25, 2012
2012 MLB Starting Pitching Through April 24
| Team | IP | TBF | RA | ERA | FIP | xFIP | BB/BF | K/BF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 104.7 | 401 | 2.15 | 1.72 | 2.03 | 2.85 | 5.5% | 24.2% |
| Cardinals | 112.0 | 439 | 2.73 | 2.57 | 3.06 | 3.42 | 5.7% | 17.8% |
| Rangers | 120.7 | 497 | 2.83 | 2.76 | 3.25 | 3.90 | 7.6% | 19.1% |
| Pirates | 86.7 | 354 | 3.01 | 2.8 | 3.10 | 3.86 | 7.3% | 14.7% |
| Phillies | 117.3 | 473 | 3.14 | 2.84 | 3.17 | 3.20 | 5.3% | 20.1% |
| White Sox | 110.7 | 442 | 3.17 | 3.09 | 3.42 | 3.63 | 7.9% | 23.8% |
| Athletics | 122.0 | 495 | 3.32 | 2.95 | 3.63 | 4.19 | 6.1% | 13.3% |
| Marlins | 100.3 | 414 | 3.50 | 3.41 | 3.30 | 3.51 | 6.5% | 18.4% |
| Giants | 107.7 | 439 | 3.59 | 3.51 | 3.66 | 3.80 | 6.8% | 19.6% |
| Dodgers | 104.7 | 435 | 3.61 | 3.01 | 3.63 | 3.80 | 9.4% | 21.8% |
| Rays | 107.3 | 453 | 3.77 | 3.44 | 4.16 | 4.31 | 9.9% | 16.1% |
| Blue Jays | 109.7 | 443 | 4.02 | 3.78 | 5.45 | 4.32 | 9.3% | 13.5% |
| Tigers | 95.3 | 406 | 4.25 | 3.87 | 3.29 | 3.43 | 6.2% | 21.4% |
| Reds | 106.0 | 448 | 4.42 | 3.99 | 3.92 | 4.23 | 6.5% | 14.3% |
| Angels | 106.0 | 440 | 4.50 | 4.33 | 4.24 | 3.40 | 5.9% | 20.2% |
| Mariners | 107.7 | 454 | 4.51 | 4.43 | 3.62 | 3.88 | 5.9% | 18.3% |
| Mets | 96.3 | 418 | 4.58 | 3.92 | 3.62 | 3.25 | 7.7% | 20.8% |
| Indians | 84.0 | 367 | 4.61 | 4.18 | 4.19 | 4.31 | 9.0% | 13.9% |
| Astros | 108.3 | 466 | 4.65 | 4.24 | 4.14 | 4.02 | 8.2% | 16.7% |
| Diamondbacks | 108.0 | 456 | 4.75 | 4.33 | 4.17 | 3.68 | 7.5% | 18.4% |
| Cubs | 106.0 | 455 | 4.75 | 4.25 | 3.42 | 3.63 | 8.8% | 21.8% |
| Braves | 101.7 | 430 | 4.78 | 4.16 | 3.80 | 3.99 | 9.1% | 19.3% |
| Brewers | 102.7 | 441 | 4.91 | 4.82 | 3.91 | 3.60 | 7.0% | 21.8% |
| Padres | 104.0 | 445 | 4.93 | 4.15 | 3.92 | 3.85 | 11.0% | 19.8% |
| Orioles | 100.3 | 433 | 5.02 | 4.22 | 4.33 | 4.15 | 9.5% | 18.7% |
| Royals | 88.0 | 386 | 5.32 | 4.81 | 4.11 | 4.49 | 11.7% | 16.8% |
| Rockies | 88.3 | 390 | 5.40 | 4.89 | 4.96 | 4.83 | 9.5% | 12.6% |
| Red Sox | 94.3 | 413 | 5.72 | 5.63 | 4.92 | 4.22 | 9.9% | 17.9% |
| Yankees | 96.3 | 427 | 6.17 | 5.51 | 4.35 | 3.44 | 6.1% | 21.1% |
| Twins | 95.0 | 423 | 7.01 | 6.73 | 5.50 | 4.38 | 6.9% | 13.0% |
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
xFIP: Expected fielding-independent pitching
Twins pitching vs. the Yankees: 2-2, 6.09 RA
Twins pitching vs. the rest of the league: 3-11, 5.88 RA
Remember how the Yankees’ starting pitching was supposed to be a strength? Now they’re hoping a 40 year old who hasn’t pitched in a year can ride in and save the day.
CC should be fine. I think Nova’s a good bet for continued success thanks to the big improvement in his peripherals. Whether that makes him a 2 or a 3 I don’t know, but it’s probably safer to think he’s a 3. Kuroda will also be ok I think, but I don’t think he’s a 2 in the AL. It’d be nice if Phil Hughes wasn’t awful, because with Michael Pineda looking less and less likely to pitch this year Andy Pettitte could in theory fill one hole between Hughes and Freddy Garcia, but he can’t fill two. My guess is Garcia’s start on Saturday will be his last for this turn in the rotation.
Despite what they’ve shown to date I’d bet a reasonable amount of money the Yankees will not remain the second worst starting rotation in MLB by the end of the year. I think they have a chance to crack the top 20.
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
2012 MLB Offenses through April 23
| Tm | R/G | BR/G |
|---|---|---|
| NYY | 6.06 | 6.18 |
| TEX | 5.76 | 5.83 |
| ATL | 5.47 | 4.71 |
| CLE | 5.29 | 5.08 |
| TOR | 5.12 | 4.65 |
| BOS | 5.07 | 5.18 |
| STL | 4.94 | 5.15 |
| COL | 4.80 | 4.91 |
| TBR | 4.75 | 4.57 |
| HOU | 4.47 | 4.33 |
| CHW | 4.44 | 4.45 |
| SFG | 4.44 | 4.49 |
| LAD | 4.41 | 4.34 |
| DET | 4.38 | 3.85 |
| ARI | 4.29 | 4.22 |
| MIL | 4.29 | 4.14 |
| BAL | 4.25 | 4.27 |
| LgAvg | 4.20 | 4.24 |
| LAA | 4.19 | 4.02 |
| MIA | 3.80 | 4.01 |
| MIN | 3.71 | 4.04 |
| CHC | 3.65 | 3.01 |
| WSN | 3.62 | 3.87 |
| KCR | 3.56 | 4.20 |
| SDP | 3.53 | 3.41 |
| SEA | 3.53 | 2.96 |
| NYM | 3.50 | 4.12 |
| CIN | 3.31 | 3.36 |
| OAK | 2.89 | 3.09 |
| PHI | 2.82 | 3.13 |
| PIT | 2.00 | 1.87 |
R/G: Runs scored per game
BR/G: Linear weights batting runs per game
Yes, I realize posting this means the Yankees will not score for the next week.
Sunday, April 22, 2012
How have the first two weeks of the 2012 MLB season changed team projections?
We’re roughly about 10% of the way throught the 2012 regular season, which is a pretty small sample size to make sweeping observations about how good or bad teams are. That doesn’t mean that what’s happened to this point isn’t important, because it is. I wanted to see what teams have seen the biggest shifts in their outlooks based on how they projected coming into the year compared what they have done since.
The way I looked at this involves three basic steps.
1) Get 2012 projections. In this case I’m using the average of the 2012 MLB projection blowout that I ran at the beginning of April.
2) Estimate revised team strength. For now, this is just a basic weighted average of the team’s projections heading into the year and their Pythagenpat performance to this point. I’m not making any adjustments for injuries/roster changes/etc., yet, although as we get deeper into the season I’ll probably do that.
3) Run the rest of the 2012 MLB season through my Monte Carlo simulator and see what happens. This includes a variable that alters team strength in each iteration to account for things that projections can’t account for.
Here’s what it says.
| Date | 4/22/2012 | ||||||||||
| Iterations | 100000 | ||||||||||
| American League | |||||||||||
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Yankees | 94 | 68 | 848 | 718 | 49.0% | 14.1% | 24.0% | 87.1% | -0.8 | 12 | 7 |
| Rays | 87 | 75 | 764 | 695 | 23.9% | 15.0% | 34.6% | 73.5% | -2.0 | -1 | 12 |
| Red Sox | 83 | 79 | 828 | 765 | 13.9% | 11.2% | 28.1% | 53.1% | -7.6 | -2 | 32 |
| Blue Jays | 81 | 81 | 780 | 775 | 11.6% | 7.8% | 21.4% | 40.9% | -0.5 | 6 | 0 |
| Orioles | 70 | 92 | 712 | 812 | 1.6% | 1.9% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 0.1 | -1 | -6 |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Tigers | 88 | 74 | 780 | 730 | 46.6% | 6.1% | 17.7% | 70.4% | 2.9 | -4 | -6 |
| Indians | 86 | 76 | 779 | 758 | 33.4% | 8.2% | 22.3% | 63.9% | 3.6 | 12 | 7 |
| White Sox | 78 | 84 | 706 | 755 | 11.2% | 4.4% | 12.9% | 28.5% | 1.6 | -1 | -18 |
| Royals | 70 | 92 | 697 | 771 | 4.5% | 0.8% | 5.6% | 10.9% | -4.8 | -8 | 6 |
| Twins | 70 | 92 | 720 | 824 | 4.2% | 0.9% | 3.7% | 8.8% | -1.6 | -11 | 3 |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Rangers | 99 | 63 | 822 | 679 | 78.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 93.6% | 8.4 | 15 | -24 |
| Angels | 85 | 77 | 738 | 667 | 17.0% | 16.4% | 28.9% | 62.3% | -5.1 | -3 | 6 |
| Mariners | 73 | 89 | 672 | 734 | 2.8% | 3.2% | 7.8% | 13.8% | -1.5 | -10 | -7 |
| Athletics | 72 | 90 | 687 | 739 | 2.0% | 2.8% | 9.0% | 13.8% | -4.1 | -20 | -17 |
| National League | |||||||||||
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Braves | 90 | 72 | 734 | 664 | 32.5% | 11.3% | 23.7% | 67.5% | 2.3 | 20 | -2 |
| Phillies | 88 | 74 | 677 | 611 | 25.9% | 12.4% | 21.6% | 59.9% | -1.4 | -21 | -17 |
| Nationals | 88 | 74 | 674 | 639 | 27.5% | 10.4% | 24.4% | 62.3% | 3.8 | -8 | -17 |
| Marlins | 82 | 80 | 699 | 672 | 11.3% | 8.4% | 18.2% | 37.9% | -1.8 | -8 | -9 |
| Mets | 74 | 88 | 677 | 749 | 2.8% | 3.0% | 8.5% | 14.3% | 0.2 | -6 | -3 |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Cardinals | 94 | 68 | 740 | 662 | 53.9% | 10.5% | 16.8% | 81.1% | 7.2 | 9 | -17 |
| Brewers | 86 | 76 | 700 | 677 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 19.0% | 49.7% | 1.2 | 1 | 13 |
| Reds | 84 | 78 | 699 | 665 | 18.7% | 9.6% | 21.5% | 49.7% | -2.9 | -16 | 5 |
| Pirates | 73 | 89 | 639 | 726 | 3.3% | 1.8% | 6.2% | 11.3% | 1.5 | -29 | -26 |
| Cubs | 68 | 94 | 652 | 757 | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 6.2% | -3.2 | -4 | 7 |
| Astros | 66 | 96 | 607 | 747 | 1.2% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 1.9 | 3 | -8 |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Giants | 85 | 77 | 672 | 649 | 29.6% | 5.3% | 14.9% | 49.8% | 0.6 | 0 | 2 |
| Dodgers | 83 | 79 | 649 | 674 | 22.7% | 5.3% | 11.1% | 39.1% | 8.1 | 8 | -17 |
| Diamondbacks | 83 | 79 | 687 | 677 | 22.8% | 4.3% | 14.1% | 41.2% | -1.3 | -6 | 3 |
| Rockies | 81 | 81 | 751 | 744 | 20.1% | 4.9% | 12.6% | 37.6% | -1.2 | 3 | 13 |
| Padres | 72 | 90 | 638 | 690 | 4.8% | 1.4% | 5.1% | 11.3% | -3.5 | -9 | 2 |
W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: 2012 revised projected wins minus 2012 pre-season projected wins
RS+/-: 2012 revised projected runs scored minus 2012 pre-season projected runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2012 revised projected runs allowed minus 2012 pre-season projected runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)
Good thing for Cliff Lee he signed with the young upstart Phillies instead of the old decrepit Yankees. And remember how the Rangers and Angels looked to be neck and neck heading into the year? Yeah. The Dodgers seem to have snuck their way into the division race now, but other than that the division standings look pretty similar to how they did entering the season.
And here’s a chart that shows the changes in revised team wins projections for each team.
| TM | W+/- |
| Rangers | 8.4 |
| Dodgers | 8.1 |
| Cardinals | 7.2 |
| Nationals | 3.8 |
| Indians | 3.6 |
| Tigers | 2.9 |
| Braves | 2.3 |
| Astros | 1.9 |
| White Sox | 1.6 |
| Pirates | 1.5 |
| Brewers | 1.2 |
| Giants | 0.6 |
| Mets | 0.2 |
| Orioles | 0.1 |
| Blue Jays | -0.5 |
| Yankees | -0.8 |
| Rockies | -1.2 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.3 |
| Phillies | -1.4 |
| Mariners | -1.5 |
| Twins | -1.6 |
| Marlins | -1.8 |
| Rays | -2.0 |
| Reds | -2.9 |
| Cubs | -3.2 |
| Padres | -3.5 |
| Athletics | -4.1 |
| Royals | -4.8 |
| Angels | -5.1 |
| Red Sox | -7.6 |
The Rangers have been destroying the competition and look like they’re probably the best team in baseball. The Dodgers and Cardinals are the biggest positive surprises in the National League so far. The Angels are the biggest disappointment in the AL.
But the Red Sox have to be the most pleasant surprise in baseball for me.
Friday, April 20, 2012
Crashing the Party
I decided to make use of my field pass during Yankees' batting practice on Friday afternoon. I figured that I should make the most of it before somebody wised up and revoked it.
Trying to remain as incognito as possible, I snapped off a few pictures using my phone (hence the poor picture quality). Click on any of them to enlarge.
I took this shot just as the Red Sox were finishing up their BP - all the Yankees were still in the dugout getting ready to come out and stretch.
Papelbon is right, Mo has a great smile.
CHB asked asked A-Rod about his favorite Fenway moments. I believe A-Rod mentioned his first major league game in July of 1994.
One of the funnier moments I witnessed was when Nick Swisher came into the dugout before taking BP. Russell Martin was just about to sit down with a reporter from a Canadian news outlet, and Swisher started yelling out, "French time? Time for French!?"
Another interesting thing I caught was Swisher talking to Ibanez about the difference between Yankee Stadium's short porch and the wall in left at Fenway. He said something about how if you get jammed at Yankee Stadium, you won't be able to muscle it out; but you can get jammed and still go deep over the monster. Or maybe it was the other way around. The funny thing was that it almost looked like he got jammed in his first plate appearance on Friday and he actually took it the other way for a HR over the monster.
Kuroda sitting down for an interview with Japanese TV. I only caught one word: Ichiro.
Every time I get an assignment for a Yankee game, I hope to see Mariano Rivera take the mound. So when Cody Eppley came in with a four run lead in the bottom of the ninth, I was a bit disconcerted. However, it only took one single off the bat of Jarrod Saltalamacchia for Girardi to make the inevitable call to the bullpen, and I once again got to see my absolute favorite player in action. Two strike outs and a ground out was all the Red Sox could muster against the greatest closer in baseball history, and the Yankees took the first game of the season series 6-2.
Happy Birthday Fenway.
A Tale of Two Log 5s
The Yankees have been a bit under their expected record to this point using Bill James’s log 5 expectations given pre-season projections for them and their respective opponents and adjusting for home/road advantage/disadvantage.
The Red Sox have been more than a bit under their expected record using the same criteria. Here’s how they compare.
| Team | NYA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Opp | xW | aW |
| 6-Apr | @TAM | 0.53 | 0 |
| 7-Apr | @TAM | 0.53 | 0 |
| 8-Apr | @TAM | 0.53 | 0 |
| 9-Apr | @BAL | 0.65 | 1 |
| 10-Apr | @BAL | 0.65 | 1 |
| 11-Apr | @BAL | 0.65 | 1 |
| 13-Apr | LAA | 0.52 | 1 |
| 14-Apr | LAA | 0.52 | 0 |
| 15-Apr | LAA | 0.52 | 1 |
| 16-Apr | MIN | 0.64 | 0 |
| 17-Apr | MIN | 0.64 | 1 |
| 18-Apr | MIN | 0.64 | 0 |
| 19-Apr | MIN | 0.64 | 1 |
| 7.68 | 7.00 |
| Team | BOS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Opp | xW | aW |
| 5-Apr | @DET | 0.53 | 0 |
| 7-Apr | @DET | 0.53 | 0 |
| 8-Apr | @DET | 0.53 | 0 |
| 9-Apr | @TOR | 0.56 | 1 |
| 10-Apr | @TOR | 0.56 | 0 |
| 11-Apr | @TOR | 0.56 | 0 |
| 13-Apr | TAM | 0.51 | 1 |
| 14-Apr | TAM | 0.51 | 1 |
| 15-Apr | TAM | 0.51 | 1 |
| 16-Apr | TAM | 0.51 | 0 |
| 17-Apr | TEX | 0.50 | 0 |
| 18-Apr | TEX | 0.50 | 0 |
| 6.33 | 4.00 |
xW: Expected wins using log 5 and these pre-season projections
aW: Actual wins
The Yankees actually project as slight favorites in this series at 1.56 - 1.44. Here’s how the two teams’ would compare to their overall log 5 based on the various potential series outcomes.
Yankee sweep: Yankees aW: 10, xW: 9.23, Boston aW: 4, xW: 7.77
Yankees 2-1: Yankees aW: 9, xW: 9.23, Boston aW: 5, xw: 7.77
Boston 2-1: Yankees aW: 8, xW: 9.23, Boston aW: 6, xW: 7.77
Boston sweep: Yankees aW: 7, xW: 9.23, Boston aW: 7, xW: 7.77
So the Yankees really only need to win one of these games to remain closer to their relative expectations than Boston.
I’d obviously like to see more than that.
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
CAIRO 2012 v1.0 and Final Pre-season MLB Standings Projection
I’ve uploaded the final pre-season 2012 CAIRO projections and projected standings. They can be downloaded here.
Yeah, I know Opening Day was technically last week. Sue me.
Here are the standings and of course, the pie charts. I should be posting more projected standings from other systems later today, so I’ll save the disclaimers and explanations for after that’s all done.
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PS% | W 1 Std |
| AL East | NYA | 96 | 66 | 848 | 713 | 52.8% | 19.6% | 11.1% | 83.5% | 86 - 106 |
| AL East | BOS | 91 | 71 | 857 | 751 | 23.7% | 21.0% | 16.1% | 60.8% | 81 - 101 |
| AL East | TAM | 91 | 71 | 765 | 667 | 22.4% | 25.7% | 14.9% | 63.0% | 81 - 101 |
| AL East | TOR | 79 | 83 | 771 | 793 | 0.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 6.2% | 69 - 89 |
| AL East | BAL | 70 | 92 | 736 | 838 | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 60 - 80 |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PS% | W 1 Std |
| AL Central | DET | 87 | 75 | 803 | 741 | 55.2% | 1.3% | 10.3% | 66.8% | 77 - 97 |
| AL Central | CLE | 84 | 78 | 759 | 721 | 36.4% | 2.4% | 9.3% | 48.0% | 74 - 94 |
| AL Central | CHA | 74 | 88 | 699 | 806 | 3.0% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 4.0% | 64 - 84 |
| AL Central | KC | 73 | 89 | 682 | 754 | 3.6% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 4.6% | 63 - 83 |
| AL Central | MIN | 71 | 91 | 725 | 815 | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 61 - 81 |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PS% | W 1 Std |
| AL West | TEX | 93 | 69 | 809 | 685 | 54.2% | 12.7% | 17.3% | 84.1% | 83 - 103 |
| AL West | LAA | 92 | 70 | 739 | 640 | 44.7% | 14.3% | 14.6% | 73.6% | 82 - 102 |
| AL West | OAK | 74 | 88 | 685 | 753 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 64 - 84 |
| AL West | SEA | 73 | 89 | 669 | 742 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 63 - 83 |
| AL | WC1 | 93 | ||||||||
| AL | WC2 | 90 | ||||||||
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PS% | W 1 Std |
| NL East | PHI | 91 | 71 | 690 | 610 | 51.0% | 15.1% | 9.0% | 75.0% | 81 - 101 |
| NL East | ATL | 86 | 76 | 705 | 664 | 20.5% | 16.4% | 10.2% | 47.1% | 76 - 96 |
| NL East | WAS | 85 | 77 | 669 | 632 | 17.7% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 40.1% | 75 - 95 |
| NL East | FLA | 83 | 79 | 710 | 694 | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 25.9% | 73 - 93 |
| NL East | NYN | 74 | 88 | 665 | 737 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 64 - 84 |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PS% | W 1 Std |
| NL Central | STL | 89 | 73 | 728 | 654 | 47.2% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 67.7% | 79 - 99 |
| NL Central | MIL | 86 | 76 | 695 | 646 | 29.2% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 52.6% | 76 - 96 |
| NL Central | CIN | 85 | 77 | 707 | 670 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 44.8% | 75 - 95 |
| NL Central | PIT | 71 | 91 | 653 | 743 | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 61 - 81 |
| NL Central | CHN | 71 | 91 | 648 | 748 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 61 - 81 |
| NL Central | HOU | 61 | 101 | 584 | 752 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 51 - 71 |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PS% | W 1 Std |
| NL West | SF | 85 | 77 | 663 | 634 | 36.5% | 5.2% | 10.2% | 51.9% | 75 - 95 |
| NL West | ARI | 84 | 78 | 692 | 674 | 33.9% | 3.0% | 9.2% | 46.0% | 74 - 94 |
| NL West | COL | 82 | 80 | 755 | 750 | 21.2% | 2.9% | 6.6% | 30.7% | 72 - 92 |
| NL West | SD | 76 | 86 | 635 | 674 | 4.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 6.6% | 66 - 86 |
| NL West | LAN | 75 | 87 | 622 | 671 | 4.3% | 0.3% | 2.5% | 7.1% | 65 - 85 |
| NL | WC1 | 90 | ||||||||
| NL | WC2 | 88 |
Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
PS%: Total percentage team qualified for the postseason (DIV + WC1 + WC2)
W 1 Std: Wins within one standard deviation
Saturday, March 24, 2012
Boston.com: Valentine blasts Girardi
When the inning was over, the Red Sox took the field but were waved off by the umpires. Valentine had righthander Clayton Mortensen warmed up and coming in from the bullpen.
“It was regretful that [Clayton] Mortensen warmed up though and then we were told that they weren’t going to play extra innings. I didn’t think that that was very courteous,’’ Valentine said.
“The umpire came over and said we couldn’t play. I don’t care about not playing. Why do I have to warm up my pitcher who’s trying to make a team? Come in in a tie game against the Yankees and maybe help him make a team, and instead he has to walk off the mound and take a shower. That’s just not very courteous.’’
According to their travel roster, the Yankees had seven pitchers available. One of them, D.J. Mitchell, threw in the bullpen during the game and could not have pitched. But the others could have.
“Usually there’s communication between the umpires and the manager and it didn’t happen tonight for whatever reason,’’ Girardi said. “I didn’t know they had another guy.’’
Valentine expected that message to come from Girardi.
“Usually you go over and say, ‘Hey, I don’t have any more.’ I don’t know. I haven’t been around in a long time,’’ he said. “Joe knows better than I. I guess you just walk off the field.
“I’m sure [Girardi] didn’t do anything deliberate. It’s just I have to answer a pitcher who’s trying to make the team. That’s why you use that bullpen.’’
If getting Mortensen in the game was so important to Valentine, perhaps he could have used him in one of the nine official innings, perhaps in one of the seven thrown by Aaron Cook and Ross Ohlendorf? And if giving Mortensen a fair chance to make the team is so important to Valentine, is there any reason he’s pitched a grand total of three times this spring?
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
CAIRO 2012 v0.5 and More Somewhat Useless Projected Standings
I’ve uploaded the latest version of the 2012 MLB CAIRO projections. They can be downloaded here.
The only changes from version 0.4 were moving players who were signed/traded to their new teams. I think this will probably be the last release until right before Opening Day unless I find any issues.
I figured since I’ve updated again I’d run another set of projected standings so here is what they look like.
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| AL East | NYA | 97 | 65 | 844 | 692 | 54.3% | 22.5% | 8.0% | 84.8% |
| AL East | TAM | 92 | 70 | 772 | 660 | 23.2% | 27.4% | 14.1% | 64.8% |
| AL East | BOS | 92 | 70 | 862 | 745 | 22.1% | 27.0% | 15.3% | 64.4% |
| AL East | TOR | 78 | 84 | 758 | 795 | 0.4% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 4.1% |
| AL East | BAL | 70 | 92 | 734 | 847 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| AL Central | DET | 88 | 74 | 814 | 741 | 60.7% | 1.6% | 12.7% | 75.0% |
| AL Central | CLE | 84 | 78 | 763 | 729 | 32.1% | 0.8% | 9.5% | 42.4% |
| AL Central | CHA | 74 | 88 | 705 | 805 | 3.5% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 4.7% |
| AL Central | KC | 74 | 88 | 687 | 762 | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 4.1% |
| AL Central | MIN | 67 | 95 | 720 | 861 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| AL West | TEX | 92 | 70 | 812 | 695 | 51.2% | 8.6% | 17.0% | 76.8% |
| AL West | LAA | 91 | 71 | 741 | 653 | 47.0% | 9.9% | 16.6% | 73.5% |
| AL West | OAK | 76 | 86 | 685 | 735 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.9% |
| AL West | SEA | 74 | 88 | 673 | 729 | 1.2% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 2.4% |
| AL | WC1 | 94 | |||||||
| AL | WC2 | 91 | |||||||
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| NL East | PHI | 92 | 70 | 701 | 605 | 60.8% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 82.2% |
| NL East | WAS | 86 | 76 | 676 | 625 | 18.6% | 18.2% | 9.1% | 45.8% |
| NL East | ATL | 85 | 77 | 700 | 676 | 13.2% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 36.7% |
| NL East | FLA | 82 | 80 | 708 | 699 | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 22.3% |
| NL East | NYN | 75 | 87 | 670 | 733 | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.2% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| NL Central | STL | 90 | 72 | 737 | 654 | 47.8% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 70.5% |
| NL Central | CIN | 87 | 75 | 715 | 665 | 27.3% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 51.0% |
| NL Central | MIL | 86 | 76 | 696 | 645 | 24.6% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 48.6% |
| NL Central | CHN | 71 | 91 | 650 | 745 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| NL Central | PIT | 68 | 94 | 649 | 764 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| NL Central | HOU | 60 | 102 | 584 | 773 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| NL West | SF | 85 | 77 | 663 | 630 | 38.1% | 3.1% | 8.4% | 49.5% |
| NL West | ARI | 84 | 78 | 659 | 634 | 33.5% | 3.6% | 8.9% | 46.1% |
| NL West | COL | 81 | 81 | 761 | 759 | 18.3% | 3.0% | 6.6% | 27.9% |
| NL West | SD | 76 | 86 | 633 | 668 | 5.2% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 8.2% |
| NL West | LAN | 75 | 87 | 621 | 669 | 4.9% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 7.3% |
| NL | WC1 | 90 | |||||||
| NL | WC2 | 88 |
Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
These look more realistic to me than the last set I ran with Marcel. Probably a bit high on the Yankees, but since CAIRO was created to make the Yankees look better than they are that stands to reason.
I am a bit surprised that Washington now projects better than Atlanta, even if it’s just a one game edge. The only other major differences from this and the Marcel version is St. Louis at the top of the NL Central and San Francisco and Arizona above Colorado, both of which make sense to me.
Anyway, it’s still early, this is still not that useful, etc.,
Saturday, January 28, 2012
Still Too Early 2012 MLB Standings Projection
Instead of running these with CAIRO this time I used Marcel, mainly out of curiosity in seeing what an unbiased projection that was not created to make the Yankees look better than they are would say.
It says this.
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% | |||||||||
| AL East | NYA | 92 | 70 | 785 | 682 | 45.3% | 20.3% | 10.4% | 76.0% | |||||||||
| AL East | BOS | 90 | 72 | 830 | 750 | 27.9% | 26.1% | 10.8% | 64.8% | |||||||||
| AL East | TAM | 88 | 74 | 717 | 646 | 23.7% | 21.2% | 12.2% | 57.1% | |||||||||
| AL East | TOR | 81 | 81 | 723 | 727 | 3.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 16.7% | |||||||||
| AL East | BAL | 70 | 92 | 694 | 806 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | |||||||||
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% | |||||||||
| AL Central | DET | 84 | 78 | 747 | 708 | 43.0% | 2.4% | 10.1% | 55.4% | |||||||||
| AL Central | CLE | 83 | 79 | 722 | 708 | 30.6% | 2.9% | 7.8% | 41.3% | |||||||||
| AL Central | CHA | 79 | 83 | 686 | 703 | 15.2% | 1.5% | 4.2% | 20.9% | |||||||||
| AL Central | KC | 79 | 83 | 691 | 714 | 10.8% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 16.9% | |||||||||
| AL Central | MIN | 68 | 94 | 693 | 813 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | |||||||||
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% | |||||||||
| AL West | LAA | 87 | 75 | 719 | 663 | 43.7% | 6.1% | 11.4% | 61.2% | |||||||||
| AL West | TEX | 87 | 75 | 765 | 707 | 38.2% | 6.9% | 13.4% | 58.6% | |||||||||
| AL West | OAK | 82 | 80 | 682 | 674 | 14.9% | 3.1% | 7.4% | 25.3% | |||||||||
| AL West | SEA | 76 | 86 | 649 | 689 | 3.2% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 5.5% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| NL East | PHI | 90 | 72 | 689 | 615 | 44.8% | 16.5% | 10.7% | 72.0% |
| NL East | ATL | 89 | 73 | 668 | 608 | 38.2% | 19.2% | 9.9% | 67.3% |
| NL East | WAS | 83 | 79 | 645 | 634 | 10.8% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 29.2% |
| NL East | FLA | 80 | 82 | 682 | 690 | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 16.3% |
| NL East | NYN | 74 | 88 | 630 | 680 | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 3.2% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| NL Central | CIN | 89 | 73 | 719 | 647 | 60.4% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 79.7% |
| NL Central | STL | 84 | 78 | 708 | 681 | 24.6% | 10.7% | 7.0% | 42.2% |
| NL Central | MIL | 81 | 81 | 678 | 672 | 13.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 27.5% |
| NL Central | PIT | 72 | 90 | 657 | 732 | 1.6% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 2.8% |
| NL Central | CHN | 70 | 92 | 668 | 761 | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% |
| NL Central | HOU | 66 | 96 | 617 | 749 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| NL West | COL | 85 | 77 | 749 | 711 | 32.1% | 6.4% | 10.9% | 49.4% |
| NL West | ARI | 85 | 77 | 685 | 656 | 30.8% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 48.9% |
| NL West | SF | 85 | 77 | 629 | 606 | 29.6% | 5.4% | 11.3% | 46.3% |
| NL West | LAN | 76 | 86 | 618 | 659 | 4.1% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 8.2% |
| NL West | SD | 75 | 87 | 608 | 653 | 3.4% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 6.4% |
Div: Percent of time team won division
WC 1: Percent of time team won first wild card
WC 2: Percent of time team won second wild card
We still don’t know if there will be a second wild card yet, so you can chop off that column and subtract that percentage from the team’s over playoff percentage.
Because Marcel regresses more heavily than other projections and because it assumes every one who hasn’t played in MLB projects as league average, you see a tighter spread here than you’ll see in other projected standings. The standard deviation for team wins in my last CAIRO projections was about 9. In this version it’s 7.1. That may be more realistic if you think about how little we really know about how good/bad players and teams are, even though what will actually happen in 2012 will show a much bigger spread more in line with other projected standings.
Here are the average win totals for the placings in each division and for the two wild cards.
| Div | Place | Avg W |
| AL East | 1 | 96 |
| AL East | 2 | 91 |
| AL East | 3 | 86 |
| AL East | 4 | 80 |
| AL East | 5 | 69 |
| Div | Avg W | |
| AL Central | 1 | 89 |
| AL Central | 2 | 83 |
| AL Central | 3 | 79 |
| AL Central | 4 | 75 |
| AL Central | 5 | 67 |
| Div | Avg W | |
| AL West | 1 | 92 |
| AL West | 2 | 86 |
| AL West | 3 | 81 |
| AL West | 4 | 74 |
| AL WC 1 | 91 | |
| AL WC2 | 88 | |
| Div | Avg W | |
| NL East | 1 | 94 |
| NL East | 2 | 88 |
| NL East | 3 | 83 |
| NL East | 4 | 78 |
| NL East | 5 | 72 |
| Div | Avg W | |
| NL Central | 1 | 92 |
| NL Central | 2 | 85 |
| NL Central | 3 | 80 |
| NL Central | 4 | 74 |
| NL Central | 5 | 69 |
| NL Central | 6 | 63 |
| Div | Avg W | |
| NL West | 1 | 91 |
| NL West | 2 | 85 |
| NL West | 3 | 81 |
| NL West | 4 | 77 |
| NL West | 5 | 71 |
| NL WC1 | 89 | |
| NL WC2 | 87 |
What this shows is that on average a team needed 96 wins to win the AL East, etc.,.
Some obvious things to consider would be:
- the difference between Yu Darvish (and other imports) and a league average pitcher
- prospects who project better than league average
- players who switched to parks that will affect their projections since Marcel does not park-adjust
Despite all that, the ordinal rankings seem reasonable. The only differences between this and CAIRO in that regard are that I have St. Louis ahead of Cincinnati and the Diamondbacks and Giants ahead of Colorado.
This is current through Francisco Cordero signing with Toronto, and assumes Prince Fielder at 1B and Miguel Cabrera playing a terrible version of 3B for Detroit in 70% of their games, and DHing in 25% of them.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
CAIRO 2012 v0.3 and Some Extremely Early and Completely Useless 2012 Projected Standings
I’m releasing CAIRO 2012 v 0.3 today which mainly fixes a problem with a handful of pitchers like Alexi Ogando and Ross Ohlendorf and moves players to new teams where applicable. I figure it’d be a good time to run some projected standings even though they are too early to be of any real value.
DISCLAIMER: This is very limited in telling us much about how 2012 will play out for a large number of reasons.
1) There are still a lot of roster changes coming. This may give us some sense of how the offseason has impacted teams to this point and it also shows us how things might look if nothing changed from now until April. Which won’t happen.
2) It’s too early to construct meaningful rosters for a lot of teams, so these projections will favor the teams that have essentially completed their 2012 rosters.
3) In addition to that, projection systems are inherently limited. They are designed to estimate a player’s true talent based on what they’ve done so far and also by factoring in things like age and how similar players have performed in the past. They will generally be in the ballpark for the general population of MLB players, but they can miss significantly on individual players which can obviously affect certain teams more heavily than others.
Anyway, using the depth charts from the wonderful MLB Depth Charts and includng playing time from players on the 40 man roster who don’t necessarily figure to be part of the the opening day 25 man rosters to account for organizational depth and playing out next season 100,000 times, here’s how CAIRO v0.3 sees things as of December 13, 2011. These were run with Aramis Ramirez as a Brewer, but I didn’t remove any of the non-tendered players from yesterday from their rosters.
| Date | 12/13/2011 | ||||||
| Iterations | 100000 | ||||||
| American League | |||||||
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Yankees | 94 | 68 | 862 | 740 | 59.0% | 16.8% | 75.9% |
| Red Sox | 91 | 71 | 868 | 763 | 31.1% | 26.1% | 57.2% |
| Rays | 85 | 77 | 717 | 654 | 9.5% | 11.8% | 21.4% |
| Blue Jays | 75 | 87 | 773 | 817 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| Orioles | 68 | 94 | 741 | 853 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Tigers | 89 | 73 | 780 | 703 | 54.3% | 4.7% | 59.0% |
| Indians | 87 | 75 | 751 | 696 | 40.8% | 5.9% | 46.6% |
| White Sox | 77 | 85 | 723 | 795 | 3.3% | 1.5% | 4.8% |
| Royals | 73 | 89 | 684 | 760 | 1.6% | 0.2% | 1.8% |
| Twins | 66 | 96 | 698 | 829 | 0.0% | - | - |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Rangers | 93 | 69 | 812 | 697 | 58.0% | 13.7% | 71.6% |
| Angels | 90 | 72 | 720 | 640 | 39.5% | 16.6% | 56.1% |
| Mariners | 77 | 85 | 653 | 668 | 2.3% | 2.0% | 4.2% |
| Athletics | 71 | 91 | 636 | 686 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| National League | |||||||
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Phillies | 92 | 70 | 681 | 598 | 60.6% | 10.5% | 71.1% |
| Braves | 87 | 75 | 711 | 662 | 24.9% | 13.8% | 38.7% |
| Marlins | 81 | 81 | 716 | 695 | 8.2% | 4.4% | 12.6% |
| Nationals | 80 | 82 | 665 | 668 | 4.9% | 3.2% | 8.1% |
| Mets | 76 | 86 | 669 | 710 | 1.4% | 1.6% | 3.0% |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Brewers | 92 | 70 | 700 | 646 | 52.5% | 14.3% | 66.7% |
| Cardinals | 90 | 72 | 708 | 648 | 36.8% | 19.3% | 56.2% |
| Reds | 84 | 78 | 724 | 704 | 10.1% | 10.8% | 20.9% |
| Cubs | 74 | 88 | 649 | 727 | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| Pirates | 70 | 92 | 656 | 758 | 0.4% | - | 0.4% |
| Astros | 60 | 102 | 569 | 759 | 0.0% | - | - |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Giants | 88 | 74 | 656 | 613 | 46.3% | 6.4% | 52.7% |
| Diamondbacks | 86 | 76 | 647 | 613 | 31.2% | 6.4% | 37.6% |
| Padres | 81 | 81 | 620 | 613 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 15.9% |
| Dodgers | 79 | 83 | 624 | 644 | 7.9% | 2.9% | 10.8% |
| Rockies | 76 | 86 | 726 | 776 | 3.4% | 0.6% | 4.0% |
The most shocking thing here is the Astros projecting to win 62 games IMO. I also am amused by the fact that the Marlins don’t really project any better than the Nationals despite all their largesse this offseason.
Also, be aware that I haven’t accounted for the stupid new second wild card thing yet, since I am not certain that it will be implemented for this upcoming season, and rremember that this is more for fun than utility and take it in the appropriate spirit.
Monday, November 21, 2011
TGS NY: Bobby V. to Boston?: Be afraid, Yankees fans—be very afraid
I think that even if the Red Sox don’t do another thing this off-season, if they give Bobby Valentine the keys to the manager’s office, they immediately become a lot more dangerous.
Yeah, I’m quivering in my boots here. Looks like the 1927 Yankees are in jeopardy once again.
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Yankees.com: FINAL: Rays 8, Yankees 7
Minutes after the Red Sox fell to the Orioles in Baltimore, Evan Longoria lined a walk-off homer down the left-field line to clinch the Wild Card for the Rays.
What a bizarre night of conflicted emotions.
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
What are the AL Wild Card Odds as of Today
According to Baseball Prospectus, the Red Sox are still favored to win the wild card over the Rays, 55.1% to 44.9%. This is based on assumed team strengths of .600 for the Yankees, .562 for the Red Sox, .528 for the Rays and .434 for the Orioles.
The first and most obvious problem here is assuming that a Yankee team that’s not playing for anything is going to be the equivalent of a 97 win team, particularly with them already announcing they won’t be pitching any pitchers that are going to be on the postseason roster in tomorrow’s game. Similarly, we have enough information to look at all four teams and see how strong they really may be over the next two games to see if the odds change appreciably.
I’m going to use the format below when I start my postseason previews. I’m using The Hardball Times’s Oliver forecasts, since I haven’t had time to re-run CAIRO for 2011. These projections are the most up-to-date ones (updated weekly) and include 2011 MLEs, so I think they’re solid. These were last updated on Monday.
First, here’s a rough stab at the teams I’d expect the Yankees and Rays to field over the next two days.
| Name | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 5 | .306/.363/.416 | 3 | 0.64 | .345 | .369 | .337 |
| Granderson, Curtis | CF | 5 | .259/.342/.496 | 3 | 0.74 | .358 | .314 | .374 |
| Teixeira, Mark | 1B | 5 | .265/.357/.498 | 3 | 0.75 | .369 | .380 | .364 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 5 | .289/.367/.527 | 3 | 0.80 | .382 | .389 | .380 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 5 | .312/.359/.511 | 3 | 0.77 | .374 | .358 | .381 |
| Swisher, Nick | RF | 5 | .271/.364/.475 | 3 | 0.72 | .364 | .375 | .359 |
| Montero, Jesus | DH | 5 | .278/.329/.483 | 3 | 0.67 | .348 | .361 | .340 |
| Martin, Russell | C | 5 | .252/.345/.380 | 3 | 0.57 | .326 | .344 | .320 |
| Gardner, Brett | LF | 5 | .269/.353/.376 | 3 | 0.62 | .326 | .306 | .332 |
| Starter Total | 45 | .278/.353/.463 | 29 | 6.28 | .355 | .355 | .354 | |
| Bench | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Posada, Jorge | DH | 5 | .259/.345/.448 | 3 | 0.66 | .347 | .347 | .347 |
| Jones, Andruw | OF | 4 | .251/.344/.502 | 3 | 0.60 | .363 | .381 | .357 |
| Nunez, Eduardo | IF | 5 | .278/.308/.381 | 3 | 0.51 | .301 | .302 | .300 |
| Chavez, Eric | 3B | 4 | .245/.296/.355 | 3 | 0.38 | .288 | .257 | .300 |
| Romine, Austin | C | 4 | .246/.289/.364 | 3 | 0.38 | .287 | .300 | .283 |
| Dickerson, Chris | OF | 4 | .239/.315/.341 | 3 | 0.40 | .295 | .272 | .299 |
| Pena, Ramiro | IF | 4 | .239/.283/.327 | 3 | 0.32 | .269 | .256 | .273 |
| Cervelli, Francisco | C | 0 | .263/.314/.365 | 0 | 0.00 | .298 | .310 | .293 |
| Bench Total | 30 | .252/.312/.389 | 21 | 3.24 | .308 | .304 | .309 | |
| Team Total | 75 | .268/.337/.433 | 50 | 9.52 | .336 | .335 | .336 |
Outs: Outs at the plate (assumes 25 outs per 9 innings, calculated as (1 - OBP) times PA + GDP per PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
vs. L/R: Projected wOBA splits vs. LHP/RHP using regressed platoon splits
| Name | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Jennings, Desmond | LF | 8 | .266/.334/.415 | 5 | 1.01 | .328 | .340 | .321 |
| Upton, B.J. | CF | 8 | .235/.328/.402 | 5 | 0.98 | .323 | .339 | .316 |
| Longoria, Evan | 3B | 8 | .268/.365/.510 | 5 | 1.26 | .376 | .393 | .369 |
| Zobrist, Ben | 2B | 8 | .261/.358/.437 | 5 | 1.09 | .349 | .357 | .345 |
| Damon, Johnny | DH | 8 | .272/.343/.430 | 5 | 1.05 | .339 | .322 | .346 |
| Joyce, Matt | RF | 8 | .263/.349/.463 | 5 | 1.12 | .352 | .319 | .357 |
| Kotchman, Casey | 1B | 8 | .271/.335/.395 | 5 | 0.91 | .324 | .300 | .331 |
| Jaso, John | C | 4 | .247/.329/.357 | 3 | 0.41 | .309 | .286 | .313 |
| Rodriguez, Sean | SS | 4 | .237/.315/.402 | 3 | 0.45 | .314 | .332 | .304 |
| Starter Total | 64 | .260/.342/.429 | 42 | 8.29 | .338 | .335 | .337 | |
| Bench | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Ruggiano, Justin | OF | 1 | .250/.301/.395 | 1 | 0.11 | .304 | .312 | .297 |
| Shoppach, Kelly | C | 4 | .208/.303/.379 | 3 | 0.41 | .302 | .323 | .292 |
| Johnson, Elliot | IF | 0 | .247/.286/.384 | 0 | 0.00 | .286 | .292 | .280 |
| Fuld, Sam | OF | 1 | .250/.322/.357 | 1 | 0.10 | .304 | .284 | .310 |
| Guyer, Brandon | OF | 1 | .281/.325/.444 | 1 | 0.13 | .330 | .338 | .315 |
| Canzler, Russ | IF | 0 | .263/.328/.450 | 0 | 0.00 | .337 | .371 | .303 |
| Lobaton, Jose | C | 0 | .241/.316/.365 | 0 | 0.00 | .303 | .301 | .304 |
| Brignac, Reid | SS | 4 | .235/.276/.336 | 3 | 0.31 | .269 | .246 | .274 |
| Bench Total | 11 | .233/.297/.368 | 8 | 1.06 | .293 | .292 | .289 | |
| Team Total | 75 | .256/.335/.420 | 50 | 9.35 | .331 | .329 | .330 |
Even at less than full strength, the Yankees probably have the better offense on the field.
For the pitching, it’s a bit trickier but I’ll take a shot anyway.
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Sabathia, CC | SP1 | 0 | 0 | 3.70 | 3.43 | 3.28 |
| Colon, Bartolo | SP2 | 5 | 3 | 4.82 | 4.04 | 3.97 |
| Nova, Ivan | SP3 | 0 | 0 | 4.77 | 4.36 | 4.33 |
| Garcia, Freddy | SP4 | 0 | 0 | 4.60 | 4.36 | 4.33 |
| Burnett, A.J. | SP5 | 0 | 0 | 5.21 | 4.82 | 4.49 |
| Hughes, Phil | SP6 | 0 | 0 | 4.45 | 4.12 | 4.17 |
| Betances, Dellin | SP7 | 4 | 2 | 5.36 | 4.96 | 4.83 |
| Brackman, Andrew | SP8 | 0 | 0 | 6.80 | 6.30 | 5.88 |
| Starter Total | 9 | 5 | 5.06 | 4.45 | 4.35 | |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Rivera, Mariano | CL | 1 | 0 | 3.03 | 2.81 | 2.89 |
| Robertson, David | SU | 1 | 0 | 3.75 | 3.47 | 3.05 |
| Soriano, Rafael | SU | 1 | 0 | 3.61 | 3.34 | 3.64 |
| Logan, Boone | SU | 1 | 0 | 4.32 | 4.00 | 3.77 |
| Wade, Cory | MR | 1 | 0 | 4.38 | 4.06 | 4.09 |
| Ayala, Luis | MR | 1 | 1 | 4.50 | 4.17 | 3.92 |
| Noesi, Hector | MR | 0 | 0 | 4.59 | 4.25 | 4.03 |
| Proctor, Scott | LR | 1 | 1 | 5.78 | 5.35 | 5.21 |
| Laffey, Aaron | LR | 1 | 1 | 5.56 | 5.15 | 4.59 |
| Kontos, George | LR | 1 | 1 | 5.38 | 4.98 | 5.02 |
| Reliever Total | 9 | 4 | 4.48 | 4.15 | 4.02 | |
| Team Total | 18 | 10 | 4.77 | 4.30 | 4.19 |
RA: Runs allowed per 9, calculated as 1.08*ERA
ERA: Earned runs allowed per 9
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Price, David | SP1 | 7 | 3 | 3.84 | 3.41 | 3.50 |
| Shields, James | SP2 | 0 | 0 | 4.03 | 3.70 | 3.68 |
| Hellickson, Jeremy | SP3 | 7 | 3 | 3.85 | 3.55 | 3.97 |
| Niemann, Jeff | SP4 | 0 | 0 | 4.11 | 3.95 | 4.11 |
| Davis, Wade | SP5 | 0 | 0 | 4.61 | 4.34 | 4.51 |
| Moore, Matt | SP6 | 0 | 0 | 4.57 | 4.23 | 4.10 |
| SP7 | 0 | |||||
| SP8 | 0 | |||||
| Starter Total | 14 | 6 | 3.84 | 3.48 | 3.74 | |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Farnsworth, Kyle | CL | 1 | 0 | 3.53 | 3.27 | 3.23 |
| Peralta, Joel | SU | 1 | 0 | 3.35 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Howell, J.P. | SU | 1 | 1 | 4.64 | 4.30 | 4.08 |
| Cruz, Juan | SU | 1 | 1 | 4.75 | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| McGee, Jake | MR | 0 | 0 | 4.56 | 4.22 | 4.03 |
| Gomes, Brandon | MR | 0 | 0 | 4.21 | 3.90 | 3.71 |
| Ramos, Cesar | MR | 0 | 0 | 5.18 | 4.80 | 4.43 |
| De La Rosa, Dane | LR | 0 | 0 | 5.03 | 4.66 | 4.40 |
| Sonnanstine, Andy | LR | 0 | 0 | 5.43 | 5.03 | 4.88 |
| Reliever Total | 4 | 2 | 4.07 | 3.77 | 3.80 | |
| Team Total | 18 | 8 | 3.89 | 3.54 | 3.75 |
Obviously the assumption here is 18 innings over two games. I don’t know if the Yankees would actually start Dellin Betances tomorrow, but I’m not sure who else they’d consider and the difference over four projected innings is minimal.
I am not going to bother with defense here, since it’s mostly covered in the pitching projections and trying to tease out two games of defense is more likely to be counter-productive than tell us anything useful.
How about the Red Sox and Orioles?
| Name | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Ellsbury, Jacoby | CF | 8 | .306/.349/.482 | 5 | 1.20 | .357 | .341 | .363 |
| Crawford, Carl | LF | 8 | .286/.327/.443 | 5 | 1.05 | .333 | .304 | .345 |
| Pedroia, Dustin | 2B | 8 | .290/.362/.454 | 5 | 1.13 | .355 | .370 | .349 |
| Ortiz, David | DH | 8 | .286/.367/.548 | 5 | 1.32 | .390 | .354 | .405 |
| Gonzalez, Adrian | 1B | 8 | .327/.412/.588 | 5 | 1.51 | .426 | .389 | .443 |
| Lowrie, Jed | 3B | 8 | .259/.316/.409 | 5 | 0.91 | .316 | .341 | .303 |
| Drew, J.D. | RF | 8 | .263/.346/.454 | 5 | 1.06 | .349 | .319 | .359 |
| Saltalamacchia, Jarrod | C | 8 | .235/.290/.416 | 6 | 0.86 | .305 | .285 | .316 |
| Scutaro, Marco | SS | 8 | .281/.347/.394 | 5 | 0.96 | .328 | .361 | .295 |
| Starter Total | 72 | .281/.346/.465 | 47 | 10.00 | .351 | .340 | .353 | |
| Bench | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Aviles, Mike | IF | 0 | .268/.296/.413 | 0 | 0.00 | .305 | .319 | .298 |
| Varitek, Jason | C | 0 | .234/.303/.434 | 0 | 0.00 | .317 | .332 | .311 |
| Jackson, Conor | OF | 2 | .250/.324/.364 | 1 | 0.21 | .309 | .325 | .302 |
| Aviles, Mike | IF | 0 | .268/.296/.413 | 0 | 0.00 | .305 | .319 | .298 |
| McDonald, Darnell | OF | 0 | .269/.316/.449 | 0 | 0.00 | .326 | .339 | .310 |
| Gathright, Joey | OF | 0 | .239/.291/.311 | 0 | 0.00 | .269 | .255 | .272 |
| Lavarnway, Ryan | C | 2 | .255/.332/.467 | 1 | 0.27 | .345 | .358 | .338 |
| Drew, J.D. | OF | 0 | .263/.346/.454 | 0 | 0.00 | .349 | .319 | .359 |
| Bench Total | 4 | .252/.328/.415 | 3 | 0.48 | .327 | .342 | .320 | |
| Team Total | 76 | .280/.345/.462 | 50 | 10.48 | .350 | .340 | .351 |
| Name | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Angle, Matt | LF | 8 | .250/.309/.313 | 6 | 0.72 | .280 | .224 | .336 |
| Hardy, J.J. | SS | 8 | .260/.305/.430 | 6 | 0.93 | .317 | .335 | .311 |
| Markakis, Nick | RF | 8 | .288/.352/.419 | 5 | 1.02 | .341 | .318 | .351 |
| Guerrero, Vladimir | DH | 8 | .295/.329/.460 | 5 | 1.03 | .341 | .356 | .336 |
| Wieters, Matt | C | 8 | .261/.324/.414 | 5 | 0.93 | .324 | .327 | .323 |
| Jones, Adam | CF | 8 | .282/.318/.457 | 5 | 1.00 | .333 | .336 | .332 |
| Reynolds, Mark | 1B | 8 | .236/.332/.521 | 5 | 1.21 | .362 | .383 | .355 |
| Davis, Chris | 3B | 8 | .271/.321/.476 | 5 | 1.08 | .341 | .318 | .350 |
| Andino, Robert | 2B | 8 | .254/.297/.361 | 6 | 0.75 | .289 | .303 | .283 |
| Starter Total | 72 | .267/.321/.428 | 49 | 8.67 | .325 | .322 | .331 | |
| Bench | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Tatum, Craig | C | 0 | .219/.276/.292 | 0 | 0.00 | .256 | .268 | .252 |
| Fox, Jake | C | 0 | .265/.323/.476 | 0 | 0.00 | .343 | .349 | .339 |
| Adams, Ryan | 3B | 0 | .258/.307/.385 | 0 | 0.00 | .305 | .336 | .275 |
| Bell, Josh | IF | 0 | .239/.290/.407 | 0 | 0.00 | .303 | .308 | .301 |
| Hudson, Kyle | IF | 0 | .226/.282/.263 | 0 | 0.00 | .250 | .230 | .252 |
| Reimold, Nolan | OF | 1 | .255/.334/.437 | 1 | 0.13 | .337 | .349 | .330 |
| Florimon Jr., Pedro | OF | 0 | .224/.278/.329 | 0 | 0.00 | .268 | .268 | .268 |
| Bench Total | 1 | #N/A | 1 | 0.13 | .337 | .349 | .330 | |
| Team Total | 73 | #N/A | 50 | 8.80 | .325 | .323 | .331 |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Beckett, Josh | SP1 | 0 | 0 | 3.76 | 3.51 | 3.85 |
| Lester, Jon | SP2 | 7 | 3 | 3.63 | 3.43 | 3.45 |
| Bedard, Erik | SP3 | 5 | 2 | 4.02 | 3.62 | 3.59 |
| Lackey, John | SP4 | 0 | 0 | 4.89 | 4.51 | 4.14 |
| Wakefield, Tim | SP5 | 0 | 0 | 4.93 | 4.61 | 5.27 |
| Miller, Andrew | SP6 | 0 | 0 | 6.40 | 5.58 | 5.01 |
| Weiland, Kyle | SP7 | 0 | 0 | 5.56 | 5.15 | 4.97 |
| Buchholz, Clay | SP8 | 0 | 0 | 4.02 | 3.59 | 4.14 |
| Starter Total | 12 | 5 | 3.79 | 3.51 | 3.51 | |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Papelbon, Jonathan | CL | 2 | 1 | 3.29 | 3.05 | 2.93 |
| Bard, Daniel | SU | 2 | 1 | 3.37 | 3.12 | 3.51 |
| Wheeler, Dan | SU | 1 | 0 | 3.96 | 3.67 | 4.11 |
| Albers, Matt | SU | 0 | 0 | 4.59 | 4.25 | 3.97 |
| Morales, Franklin | MR | 0 | 0 | 4.88 | 4.52 | 4.75 |
| Atchison, Scott | MR | 0 | 0 | 3.81 | 3.53 | 3.57 |
| Doubront, Felix | MR | 0 | 0 | 5.35 | 4.95 | 4.67 |
| Aceves, Alfredo | LR | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 3.70 | 4.02 |
| Bowden, Michael | LR | 0 | 0 | 4.97 | 4.60 | 4.79 |
| Buchholz, Clay | LR | 0 | 0 | 3.88 | 3.59 | 4.14 |
| Tazawa, Junichi | LR | 6 | 2 | 3.55 | 3.29 | 3.50 |
| Team Total | 18 | 7 | 3.71 | 3.43 | 3.51 |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Britton, Zach | SP1 | 5 | 2 | 4.44 | 4.11 | 4.04 |
| Simon, Alfredo | SP2 | 5 | 3 | 5.13 | 4.60 | 4.48 |
| Matusz, Brian | SP3 | 0 | 0 | 4.96 | 4.69 | 4.59 |
| Hunter, Tommy | SP4 | 0 | 0 | 4.60 | 4.38 | 4.48 |
| Vandenhurk, Rick | SP5 | 0 | 0 | 5.64 | 5.09 | 5.38 |
| Guthrie, Jeremy | SP6 | 0 | 0 | 4.39 | 4.14 | 4.41 |
| SP7 | 0 | |||||
| SP8 | 0 | |||||
| Starter Total | 10 | 5 | 4.78 | 4.36 | 4.26 | |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Johnson, Jim | CL | 1 | 0 | 3.93 | 3.64 | 3.65 |
| Gregg, Kevin | SU | 1 | 1 | 4.76 | 4.41 | 4.35 |
| Patton, Troy | SU | 1 | 1 | 5.18 | 4.80 | 4.72 |
| Bergesen, Brad | SU | 1 | 1 | 4.91 | 4.55 | 4.57 |
| Accardo, Jeremy | MR | 1 | 1 | 4.78 | 4.43 | 4.18 |
| Berken, Jason | MR | 1 | 1 | 5.28 | 4.89 | 4.40 |
| Eyre, Willie | MR | 1 | 1 | 4.70 | 4.35 | 4.25 |
| Rapada, Clay | LR | 1 | 0 | 4.44 | 4.11 | 3.76 |
| Reyes, Jo-Jo | LR | 0 | 0 | 5.72 | 5.30 | 4.92 |
| Strop, Pedro | LR | 0 | 0 | 4.59 | 4.25 | 3.90 |
| Reliever Total | 8 | 4 | 4.75 | 4.40 | 4.23 | |
| Team Total | 18 | 10 | 4.77 | 4.37 | 4.25 |
Yeah, yeah, yeah, so what does all this nerdy crap mean?
It means this.
| Team | Gms | RS | RA | wpct |
| NYA | 2 | 9.5 | 9.5 | .499 |
| BOS | 2 | 10.5 | 7.4 | .656 |
| TB | 2 | 9.4 | 7.8 | .584 |
| BAL | 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | .471 |
And if we use those numbers adjusted for home-field advantage to play out the last two games of the season, here’s what I get for the wild card odds.
Rays: 50.9%
Red Sox: 49.1%
Should be interesting.
Monday, September 26, 2011
Yankees.com: Cano’s bat can’t carry Yanks alone in St. Pete
As the Yankees attempt to balance resting their regulars with serving their roles as spoilers in the American League Wild Card race, manager Joe Girardi fielded a lineup that produced mixed results.
Robinson Cano homered and notched a run-scoring single against Tampa Bay starter James Shields, who otherwise gave the Rays everything they needed. Pending the result of Boston’s game at Baltimore, the Rays’ win pulled them within a half-game of the Red Sox with two games remaining.
Best loss ever.
Pending the result of this?
Red Sox fall into WC tie as O’s barrel back
BALTIMORE—Two games left, and it’s all tied up. That is the reality the Red Sox now face as their once secure grip in the American League Wild Card standings has slipped away entirely.
This, after an 6-3 loss on Monday at Camden Yards to the 68-92 Orioles, a team that has beaten the Red Sox in four out of five meetings over the last week.
If the Red Sox don’t reverse that in the next two games, they could be going home earlier than anyone thought. The resilient Rays have come all the way back and have the same 89-71 record as Boston after beating the Yankees, 5-2, at Tropicana Field on Monday.
It was the continuation an almost surreal turn of events over the last few weeks for the Red Sox, who have gone 6-19 in September, losing nine games in the standings over that time.
Back on Aug. 17, Boston had a lead of 10 games in the AL Wild Card. Now, the Sox have two games—and perhaps a one-game playoff on Thursday—to avoid being the first team to blow a double-digit Wild Card lead since that format started in 1994.
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Yankees.com: Burnett helps Yanks burn Red Sox in Game 1
NEW YORK—Nearly three years have passed, but A.J. Burnett has finally done what the Yankees asked when they chased him so passionately as a free agent: Beat the Boston Red Sox.
The right-hander hurled 7 2/3 strong innings on Sunday, defeating the skidding Red Sox, 6-2, in the first game of a day-night doubleheader at Yankee Stadium.
Burnett’s effort ended a string of 10 overall starts against the Red Sox—including nine as a Yankee—dating back to Sept. 19, 2008, taking advantage of a Boston club that continues to fret about their postseason chances.
While Burnett may not have a place in the first-round postseason rotation, where Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia could follow CC Sabathia in the American League Division Series, he offered some optimism for his inclusion in some form.
Burnett’s final line looks pretty good, but he was shaky early. Through four innings he’d thrown 32 strikes and 29 balls. Over the rest of the game he threw 32 strikes and just 12 balls, and ended his day by striking out the last two batters he faced. It’s only natural to wonder how much of his performance can be attributed to pitching against a Boston team that’s probably pressing versus him battling through adversity. I suppose we can say that we’ve seen that when A.J.‘s bad enough, he can make the worst team in MLB look good (the Twins), so this outing has to be viewed positively, although I’m sure it won’t be by some.
If I had to guess, he’s probably earned a shot at the postseason rotation, maybe as the #4 in the ALDS should the Yankees by some miracle be up 2-1. I’m fine with that, provided he’s got a short leash with someone like Bartolo Colon or Phil Hughes shadowing him. There’s no reason to think he’d be appreciably worse than either of them in a single start.
Tampabayrays.com: Four homers help Rays gain ground
ST. PETERSBURG—A home-run barrage coupled with an inspired pitching performance led the Rays to a 5-2 win over the Blue Jays on Sunday afternoon at Tropicana Field.
By winning, the Rays moved to within a half-game of the American League Wild Card-leading Red Sox, who lost to the Yankees in the first game of a day-night double-header on Sunday.
We’re about two hours away from a game that has the potential to be an absolute smorgasbord of schadenfreude.
Saturday, September 24, 2011
NY Post: MLB will add wild-card teams, hold one-game playoff: sources
Negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement for Major League Baseball are moving at a fast pace and one issue the sides have all but agreed upon is adding two wild-card teams and holding one-game playoffs in each league to determine which of the wild cards advances, The Post has learned.
One person involved in the talks described that scenario as a done deal and another hedged a little by saying it is likely to play out that way, but nothing will be finalized until an entire CBA is inked.
Both sources said because there would be just a one-game playoff added, the second wild-card team could be installed as early as next year, but the new system will go into effect no later than 2013.
Why wait? Implement it now and let Boston and Tampa Bay play each other to determine who gets into the ALDS.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Can The Yankees Get Swept By Tampa Bay and Still Win the AL East?
Here are the shedules for the rest of the season for the teams that are still relevant in the AL wild card/East race.
| Date | Yankees | w | Red Sox | w | Rays | w | Rangers | w | Angels | w |
| 9/20/2011 | Rays | 0 | Orioles | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | @Athletics | 0 | @Blue Jays | 0 |
| 9/21/2011 | Rays | 0 | Orioles | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | @Athletics | 0 | @Blue Jays | 0 |
| 9/21/2011 | Rays | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | ||||||
| 9/22/2011 | Rays | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | @Athletics | 0 | @Blue Jays | 0 | ||
| 9/23/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | 0 | Mariners | 0 | Athletics | 0 |
| 9/24/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | 0 | Mariners | 0 | Athletics | 0 |
| 9/25/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | 0 | Mariners | 0 | Athletics | 0 |
| 9/26/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 0 | Yankees | 0 | @Angels | 0 | Rangers | 0 |
| 9/27/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 0 | Yankees | 0 | @Angels | 0 | Rangers | 0 |
| 9/28/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 0 | Yankees | 0 | @Angels | 0 | Rangers | 0 |
| current | final | current | final | current | final | current | final | current | final | |
| W | 92 | 92 | 88 | 88 | 85 | 85 | 88 | 88 | 83 | 83 |
| L | 60 | 70 | 66 | 74 | 67 | 77 | 65 | 74 | 70 | 79 |
The good news is that the Yankees’ magic number over LAAA of AA is one. The next Yankee win or Angels loss makes it a three way dance, as Paul Heyman would call it. I am going to guarantee that the Angels lose one of their last nine games, so let’s play around with the three way dance scenarios.
Here’s where we are now.
| Date | Yankees | w | Red Sox | w | Rays | w |
| 9/20/2011 | Rays | 0 | Orioles | 0 | @Yankees | 0 |
| 9/21/2011 | Rays | 0 | Orioles | 0 | @Yankees | 0 |
| 9/21/2011 | Rays | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | ||
| 9/22/2011 | Rays | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | ||
| 9/23/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | |
| 9/24/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | |
| 9/25/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | |
| 9/26/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 0 | Yankees | 0 |
| 9/27/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 0 | Yankees | 0 |
| 9/28/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 0 | Yankees | 0 |
| current | final | current | final | current | final | |
| W | 92 | 92 | 88 | 88 | 85 | 85 |
| L | 60 | 70 | 66 | 74 | 67 | 77 |
Here’s where we are assuming Boston and Tampa Bay win all their non-Yankee games.
| Date | Yankees | w | Red Sox | w | Rays | w |
| 9/20/2011 | Rays | 0 | Orioles | 1 | @Yankees | 0 |
| 9/21/2011 | Rays | 0 | Orioles | 1 | @Yankees | 0 |
| 9/21/2011 | Rays | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | ||
| 9/22/2011 | Rays | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | ||
| 9/23/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | 1 |
| 9/24/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | 1 |
| 9/25/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | 1 |
| 9/26/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 1 | Yankees | 0 |
| 9/27/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 1 | Yankees | 0 |
| 9/28/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 1 | Yankees | 0 |
| current | final | current | final | current | final | |
| W | 92 | 92 | 88 | 93 | 85 | 88 |
| L | 60 | 70 | 66 | 69 | 67 | 74 |
A 1 in the ‘w’ column to the right of each team’s name is a win. I guess that means you can put it on the right side. So what this table shows is Boston winning all five of their games against the Orioles, which means 93 wins before considering whatever they may do against the Yankees and Tampa Bay sweeping Toronto.
The Rays have to win at least five games against the Yankees if they want to get to the 93 wins Boston would have if/when they win all their games against Baltimore. If that were to happen, we’d be looking at this:
| Date | Yankees | w | Red Sox | w | Rays | w |
| 9/20/2011 | Rays | 1 | Orioles | 1 | @Yankees | 0 |
| 9/21/2011 | Rays | 0 | Orioles | 1 | @Yankees | 1 |
| 9/21/2011 | Rays | 0 | @Yankees | 1 | ||
| 9/22/2011 | Rays | 1 | @Yankees | 0 | ||
| 9/23/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | 1 |
| 9/24/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | 1 |
| 9/25/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | 1 |
| 9/26/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 1 | Yankees | 1 |
| 9/27/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 1 | Yankees | 1 |
| 9/28/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 1 | Yankees | 1 |
| current | final | current | final | current | final | |
| W | 92 | 94 | 88 | 93 | 85 | 93 |
| L | 60 | 68 | 66 | 69 | 67 | 69 |
In this scenario, the Yankees would have to sweep Boston to beat them out for the division and to give Tampa Bay the wild card. Any loss by Boston vs. the Orioles means the Yankees can take 2-3 against them and still go 2-5 vs. Tampa Bay.
Of course, it’s all moot if Tampa Bay doesn’t sweep the Blue Jays.
If the Yankees win two of their next four games vs. Tampa Bay and Boston wins their two games vs. Baltimore, the Yankees can clinch a tie for the AL East by winning one of the three games vs. Boston. If Boston loses one of their next two against Baltimore the Yankees can clinch the East against them at home. That would be fun.
So I’m hoping for a 2-2 split with Tampa Bay over the next four games with Boston losing one of the next two to the O’s which gives the Yankees three shots to clinch against Boston.
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Yankees.com: Swisher provides only offense in walk-off loss
It was another one-run loss for the Yankees, who managed just four hits all night and had their three-game winning streak snapped.
“We’ve had three tough ones on this road trip, lost three games by one run,” manager Joe Girardi said. “It’s a tough one, because you figure your offense is usually going to score more than one run.”
Despite the loss, the Yankees maintained a four-game lead in the American League East thanks to Toronto’s 5-4 win over second-place Boston. New York’s magic number is now 11 and the Yankees will enjoy an off-day Thursday before heading to Toronto for a three-game set starting Friday.
Losing a game against a crappy team when your starter gives up 1 run over 7 1/3 innings is somewhat annoying, isn’t it?
I turned off the game when I saw Rafael Soriano warming up to come in, but it doesn’t seem like I missed much. My chief issue with last night was the way Girardi handled the 8th inning on offense. After Andruw Jones was hit by a pitch, Girardi pinch-ran for him with Brett Gardner. Miguel Olivo is a fairly good catcher in terms of stealing bases, but Girardi didn’t even bother trying to let Gardner steal, opting instead to give Seattle a free out by having Russell Martin bunt Gardner to second. I’ll grant that the bunt in and of itself is probably defensible if you look at things like run expectancy and win probability although it’s probably not optimal.
What was not defensible was what happened after the bunt.
Jamey Wright is a RHP who’s bounced around MLB for 16 seasons. He’s been about average for a reliever over the last three years (ERA+ of 104). He has the type of platoon split you’d expect from a RHP in his career, although it’s worth noting he’s been better vs. LHB over the last three season.
Still, there was no reason to let Eduardo Nunez hit after the Martin bunt. You have a fully stocked bench to avoid that from happening. When I saw Nunez coming up my first thought was “WTF?” Then I thought, “well maybe Girardi wants to be cautious with Eric Chavez and rest him.” That thought then melded into, “WTF?” He could pinch-hit for Nunez with Jorge Posada or Chris Dickerson and then use Ramiro Pena for defense if he didn’t want to use Chavez.” The defensive upgrade alone by replacing Nunez with a warm body makes it the smart move. Instead, Nunez, who’s hit .236/.288/.312 since the All Star Break over 172 PA, grounded out on the second pitch of his PA, shocking probably one person on the planet. Maybe two if you count Binder™ as a sentient being, and the Yankees didn’t score.
It gets better though.
In Nunez’s very next PA, Girardi PINCH HIT FOR HIM WITH ERIC CHAVEZ. If you were willing to do it in the 10th inning with two outs and the bases empty, why wouldn’t you have done it in the eighth inning with the go-ahead run on 2B and one out?
Anyway, it was a crappy game and a tough one to lose given the fact that both Tampa Bay and Boston had lost earlier. So I guess in that sense it was a fitting ending to a crappy road trip that saw the Yankees lose 4 of 7 games when they could probably have put away Boston in the AL East for good.
Monday, September 12, 2011
Down The Stretch They Come
Instead of just throwing a bunch of percentages up here like I’d normally do right about now, I wanted to take a more granular look at the remaining schedule for the AL postseason contenders.
The Yankees have won 88 games. The teams in the AL who can exceed that this point are Boston, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Texas, LAAAAAA of AA, Cleveland, the White Sox and Toronto. If all those teams won the rest of their games, here’s where they’d end the year.
| Team | W | L | GR | Max |
| NYY | 88 | 57 | 17 | 105 |
| BOS | 85 | 61 | 16 | 101 |
| DET | 84 | 62 | 16 | 100 |
| TB | 81 | 64 | 17 | 98 |
| TEX | 83 | 64 | 15 | 98 |
| LAA | 80 | 66 | 16 | 96 |
| CLE | 72 | 72 | 18 | 90 |
| CWS | 73 | 72 | 17 | 90 |
| TOR | 74 | 73 | 15 | 89 |
Because most of those teams play at least a few games against each other, they can’t all win all their remaining games. Cleveland has three games left with the Rangers and four games left with the White Sox, for example. So if they win all their games, Texas can only win at most 93, and the White Sox can only win 86, etc., I feel comfortable in saying that it’s not likely either Cleveland or the White Sox will win more games than the Yankees over the rest of the year. For the purposes of assessing the Yankees’ postseason chances, Detroit’s a non-factor in this scenario, because they can’t contend for the wild card AND win more games than the Yankees.
Toronto plays nothing but teams on that list for the rest of the year, with two vs. Boston, three vs. the Yankees, four vs. the Angels, three vs. the Rays, and three vs. the White Sox. I’m going to go out on a limb and say they’ll lose at least two of those. So I’m going to only look at the other teams.
| Team | NYY | BOS | DET | TB | TEX | LAA |
| NYY | 3 | 6 | ||||
| BOS | 3 | 4 | ||||
| DET | ||||||
| TB | 6 | 4 | ||||
| TEX | 3 | |||||
| LAA | 3 |
Texas and California have three games left against each other.
Tampa Bay has six games left vs. the Yankees and four games vs. Boston.
The Yankees have those six games vs. the Rays and three games vs. Boston.
Detroit gets to beat up on cream puffs for the rest of the year, and are right now the team with the highest playoff probability in the American League. So I’m going to say they’re in.
That means you’ve got five teams fighting for three playoff spots.
The first number to think about is that 96 from Anaheim. If they get there, that means Texas can only get to 95. So 96 wins is effectively the clinching number to eliminate the AL west runner-up from the wild card. That obviously goes down each time Texas and LAA lose.
If Tampa Bay can get to 98, that means Boston can only get to 97 and the Yankees can only get to 99. So getting to that 97 from Boston is the bar for the Yankees, although it would only be a tie. Again, that obviously goes down as the Rays/Red Sox lose.
That means the Yankees’ magic number for tying for a postseason spot is nine, and for taking one outright is 10. In the event that the Yankees and Red Sox tied for the last spot, the season series between them wouldn’t matter, and there’d be a one game play-in.
Which the Sox would win handily.
Monday, September 5, 2011
Monte Carlo Standings and Postseason Odds Through September 4, 2011
| American League | |||||||
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Yankees | 99 | 63 | 870 | 657 | 63.0% | 36.7% | 99.7% |
| Red Sox | 98 | 64 | 860 | 694 | 36.9% | 62.3% | 99.3% |
| Rays | 87 | 75 | 705 | 630 | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
| Blue Jays | 79 | 83 | 745 | 749 | - | - | - |
| Orioles | 64 | 98 | 694 | 841 | - | - | - |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Tigers | 89 | 73 | 740 | 724 | 94.2% | - | 94.2% |
| White Sox | 82 | 80 | 672 | 681 | 4.0% | - | 4.0% |
| Indians | 80 | 82 | 688 | 720 | 1.9% | - | 1.9% |
| Twins | 71 | 91 | 662 | 791 | - | - | - |
| Royals | 67 | 95 | 706 | 782 | - | - | - |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Rangers | 91 | 71 | 815 | 696 | 92.1% | 0.0% | 92.1% |
| Angels | 86 | 76 | 666 | 650 | 7.9% | 0.0% | 7.9% |
| Athletics | 75 | 87 | 654 | 668 | - | - | - |
| Mariners | 69 | 93 | 574 | 678 | - | - | - |
| National League | |||||||
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Phillies | 103 | 59 | 736 | 555 | 98.0% | 2.0% | 100.0% |
| Braves | 94 | 68 | 678 | 605 | 2.0% | 95.4% | 97.4% |
| Mets | 80 | 82 | 723 | 733 | - | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nationals | 75 | 87 | 632 | 688 | - | - | - |
| Marlins | 73 | 89 | 647 | 717 | - | - | - |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Brewers | 95 | 67 | 723 | 659 | 98.7% | 0.2% | 98.9% |
| Cardinals | 86 | 76 | 761 | 714 | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.3% |
| Reds | 81 | 81 | 751 | 711 | - | - | - |
| Pirates | 74 | 88 | 633 | 706 | - | - | - |
| Cubs | 70 | 92 | 664 | 768 | - | - | - |
| Astros | 56 | 106 | 610 | 787 | - | - | - |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Diamondbacks | 89 | 73 | 713 | 689 | 83.2% | 0.1% | 83.3% |
| Giants | 85 | 77 | 575 | 585 | 15.9% | 0.3% | 16.2% |
| Dodgers | 80 | 82 | 641 | 630 | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| Rockies | 78 | 84 | 744 | 751 | 0.1% | - | 0.1% |
| Padres | 71 | 91 | 614 | 637 | - | - | - |
W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
Not looking like too much suspense aside from seeding at this point.
Friday, September 2, 2011
Boston Globe: Edge to Yankees
Gonzalez took a two-strike pitch from Rivera that was low and on the outer corner of the plate. On a night when his strike zone had been tight, umpire Alfonso Marquez called Gonzalez out to end the game.
Sitting in front of his locker after a 4-2 loss, Gonzalez looked up as reporters entered the clubhouse.
“That pitch was low, I should still be hitting. That’s all I have to say,’’ he said.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
The Implications of this Series with Boston
At this point, I have Boston as around a 2-1 favorite for winning the AL East.
So, here’s how that changes based on the various potential outcomes for this series.
| Now | W | L | Div |
| Red Sox | 100.0 | 62.0 | 67.5% |
| Yankees | 97.9 | 64.1 | 32.5% |
| Yankee Sweep | W | L | Div |
| Yankees | 98.8 | 63.2 | 56.5% |
| Red Sox | 98.0 | 64.0 | 43.0% |
| Yankees 2-1 | W | L | Div |
| Red Sox | 99.4 | 62.6 | 59.5% |
| Yankees | 98.0 | 64.0 | 40.5% |
| Boston 2-1 | W | L | Div |
| Red Sox | 100.1 | 62.0 | 71.5% |
| Yankees | 97.6 | 64.4 | 28.5% |
| Boston sweep | W | L | Div |
| Red Sox | 100.9 | 61.1 | 84.0% |
| Yankees | 96.2 | 65.8 | 16.0% |
Tampa Bay is still technically in the divisional picture, their chances just aren’t registering above the .5% threshold needed to be seen here. The fact that Boston and the Yankees play each other six times makes it that much harder for the Rays to catch both.
So basically, if the Yankees still want a realistic shot at winning the division, they have to sweep this series. I probably don’t have to tell you that the likelihood of that is slim.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Team A vs. Team B
| Team | W | L | wpct | pyth | RS/G | RA/G |
| A | 50 | 66 | .431 | .442 | 4.62 | 5.22 |
| B | 63 | 52 | .548 | .504 | 5.12 | 5.08 |
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
More on Run Differentials
Last week I looked at the Yankees’ run differential and made the point that actual runs scored and allowed can be a bit misleading, and that it’s probably more instructive to look at the context neutral value of the offensive events for and against a team to get a better sense of how good they have actually been. For the hell of it I decided to look at this for all teams in MLB as of this morning.
| Team | RS | RA | bRS | bRA | RS - bRS | RA - bRA | Gap |
| Pirates | 436 | 469 | 415 | 503 | 21 | -34 | 55 |
| Yankees | 603 | 436 | 577 | 455 | 26 | -19 | 45 |
| Padres | 431 | 438 | 413 | 448 | 18 | -10 | 28 |
| Reds | 542 | 510 | 522 | 511 | 20 | -1 | 21 |
| Phillies | 504 | 375 | 500 | 391 | 4 | -16 | 20 |
| Blue Jays | 534 | 522 | 515 | 522 | 19 | 0 | 18 |
| Braves | 476 | 426 | 467 | 428 | 9 | -2 | 11 |
| Royals | 505 | 551 | 509 | 566 | -4 | -15 | 11 |
| Diamondbacks | 516 | 502 | 499 | 493 | 17 | 9 | 9 |
| Nationals | 449 | 471 | 445 | 475 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| Rays | 485 | 452 | 481 | 453 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| Angels | 441 | 419 | 457 | 439 | -16 | -20 | 5 |
| Cardinals | 552 | 500 | 538 | 490 | 14 | 10 | 4 |
| Indians | 478 | 486 | 458 | 469 | 20 | 17 | 3 |
| Rockies | 528 | 536 | 519 | 529 | 9 | 7 | 2 |
| Twins | 449 | 559 | 420 | 532 | 29 | 27 | 2 |
| Athletics | 442 | 456 | 430 | 440 | 12 | 16 | -5 |
| White Sox | 453 | 468 | 451 | 457 | 2 | 11 | -9 |
| Mets | 518 | 507 | 525 | 504 | -7 | 3 | -10 |
| Red Sox | 625 | 479 | 628 | 472 | -3 | 7 | -11 |
| Dodgers | 418 | 456 | 429 | 454 | -11 | 2 | -13 |
| Marlins | 462 | 503 | 471 | 497 | -9 | 6 | -15 |
| Mariners | 376 | 439 | 362 | 409 | 14 | 30 | -16 |
| Rangers | 589 | 490 | 582 | 466 | 7 | 24 | -17 |
| Brewers | 512 | 486 | 508 | 462 | 4 | 24 | -19 |
| Astros | 437 | 574 | 451 | 568 | -14 | 6 | -20 |
| Orioles | 462 | 598 | 473 | 586 | -11 | 12 | -23 |
| Cubs | 474 | 571 | 481 | 552 | -7 | 19 | -26 |
| Giants | 399 | 411 | 414 | 399 | -15 | 12 | -28 |
| Tigers | 508 | 514 | 512 | 484 | -4 | 30 | -35 |
RS/RA: Actual runs scored/allowed
bRS/bRA linear weights batting runs scored/allowed.
Gap: RS - bRS minus RA - bRA. The larger the number, the more a team has outplayed their peripherals. Basically, positive is bad here and negative is good.
What this table is saying is that, for example, the Yankees have scored about 26 more runs and allowed 19 fewer runs than their peripheral stats say they should have. That doesn’t mean you should subtract 4.5 wins from their total on the season. It just means that their Pythagenpat record/run differential is a bit misleading. In the Yankees’ case they’ve got 73 Pythag wins and 69 actual wins, so they haven’t really taken advantage of this in actual wins.
Contrast that with Pittsburgh, who’ve stumbled lately. They were playing over their heads all year, and unfortunately the correction has been ugly. At 55-59, they’re still two wins ahead of their 53-61 Pythag record, and if you look at that gap they are probably not even that good.
Sunday, August 7, 2011
Hmmmm
| Josh Beckett 2011 | bf | hbp | hbp/bf |
| vs. Yankees | 80 | 4 | 5.0% |
| vs. rest of MLB | 457 | 3 | 0.7% |
Saturday, August 6, 2011
Hmmmm
| CC Sabathia 2011 Splits | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | HBP | RA | ERA | FIP | %HBP |
| vs Boston | 0 | 3 | 19.0 | 24 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 3 | 6.16 | 6.16 | 4.20 | 3.3% |
| vs Everyone Else | 16 | 2 | 157.7 | 129 | 44 | 37 | 6 | 36 | 147 | 2 | 2.11 | 2.11 | 2.55 | 0.3% |
Friday, August 5, 2011
The Monkey On Their Backs
By any reasonable viewpoint, the Yankees have had a great year in 2011. They lead MLB in run differential/Pythagorean record, are tied for the top in the best division in baseball and have gotten a lot of good performances from unexpected places. In particular, a pitching staff that was touted as the team’s Achilles’ heel all offseason has been a legitimate strength.
Despite all that, it seems like a lot of us haven’t fully embraced the good things that this team has done, and I think it really just comes down to one thing. This team has gotten its ass handed to it by Boston every time they’ve played this year.
So who to blame? Here are the splits for the Yankees’ hitters vs. Boston and vice versa.
| Player | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | IBB | HBP | K | SB | CS | BA | OBA | SPct | wOBA | BR |
| Derek Jeter | 44 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | .200 | .273 | .225 | .238 | 1.9 |
| Curtis Granderson | 41 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 1 | .229 | .341 | .571 | .383 | 6.6 |
| Mark Teixeira | 38 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | .121 | .211 | .121 | .171 | 0.2 |
| Nick Swisher | 36 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .188 | .278 | .281 | .258 | 2.7 |
| Robinson Cano | 36 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | .281 | .361 | .500 | .374 | 5.8 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 36 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | .194 | .306 | .419 | .319 | 4.4 |
| Brett Gardner | 35 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | .167 | .286 | .267 | .260 | 2.3 |
| Russell Martin | 27 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .227 | .370 | .636 | .419 | 5.1 |
| Jorge Posada | 20 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .400 | .333 | .342 | 2.3 |
| Andruw Jones | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | .182 | .182 | .455 | .259 | 1.0 |
| Eric Chavez | 8 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .750 | .535 | 2.2 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .571 | .667 | .537 | 1.8 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .286 | .167 | .231 | 0.3 |
| Chris Dickerson | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.240 | 0.9 |
| Total | 347 | 37 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 31 | 1 | 10 | 78 | 6 | 3 | .223 | .314 | .384 | .311 | 37.5 |
| Player | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | IBB | HBP | K | SB | CS | BA | OBA | SPct | wOBA | BR |
| Carl Crawford | 40 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .125 | .125 | .200 | .139 | -0.2 |
| David Ortiz | 42 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .324 | .405 | .676 | .451 | 8.8 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 38 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .371 | .421 | .571 | .430 | 7.6 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 44 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .235 | .386 | .500 | .382 | 6.6 |
| Kevin Youkilis | 42 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | .242 | .381 | .424 | .359 | 5.7 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 39 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .500 | .605 | .733 | .556 | 10.9 |
| J.D. Drew | 33 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .280 | .424 | .400 | .376 | 4.6 |
| Marco Scutaro | 22 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .300 | .364 | .450 | .357 | 3.3 |
| Jed Lowrie | 21 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .316 | .333 | .421 | .322 | 2.3 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 20 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .400 | .556 | .412 | 3.6 |
| Jason Varitek | 18 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .333 | .200 | .270 | 1.2 |
| Mike Cameron | 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .273 | .333 | .364 | .289 | 1.2 |
| Total | 372 | 60 | 92 | 18 | 2 | 12 | 59 | 44 | 6 | 5 | 58 | 6 | 1 | .290 | .379 | .473 | .372 | 55.7 |
wOBA: weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs.
Mark Teixeira has been abysmal vs. Boston this year with some support from Derek Jeter, Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner.
Here’s a “fun” stat for you. Dustin Pedroia has provided more offense in 39 PA versus the Yankees than Jeter, Teixeira, Swisher, Gardner and Jorge Posada have provided in 173 PA against Boston (10.9 BR to 9.4 BR). Maybe fun is not the right word.
Boston’s outscored the Yankees at close to a 2-1 rate and if you compare the BR to the actual runs there’s not a lot of evidence of good or bad luck in there.
Two other things I found interesting aggravating are the HBP and IBB columns.
Well, maybe looking at the pitching will cheer us up.
| Player | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | HBP | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Bartolo Colon | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 4.35 | 2.61 | 3.88 |
| Jeff Marquez | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 2.20 |
| Phil Hughes | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | 27.00 | 12.70 |
| Boone Logan | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 3.41 |
| Lance Pendleton | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16.20 | 16.20 | 20.00 |
| Hector Noesi | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.53 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12.27 | 12.27 | 9.75 |
| Ivan Nova | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8.31 | 8.31 | 4.58 |
| Luis Ayala | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.83 |
| Rafael Soriano | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.20 |
| Freddy Garcia | 0 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 11.25 | 10.13 | 9.20 |
| Mariano Rivera | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.20 |
| A.J. Burnett | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12.71 | 11.12 | 6.55 |
| CC Sabathia | 0 | 3 | 19 | 24 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 3 | 6.16 | 6.16 | 4.20 |
| David Robertson | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4.15 | 2.08 | 3.43 |
| Total | 1 | 8 | 79 | 92 | 60 | 55 | 12 | 44 | 58 | 5 | 6.84 | 6.27 | 5.57 |
| Player | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | HBP | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Dan Wheeler | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 1.20 |
| Daniel Bard | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2.08 | 2.08 | 4.12 |
| Jonathan Papelbon | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 0.60 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 4.91 | 3.68 | 6.47 |
| Jon Lester | 2 | 0 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.37 |
| Rich Hill | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| Matt Albers | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.70 |
| Clay Buchholz | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 5.91 | 5.06 | 5.08 |
| John Lackey | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10.80 | 10.80 | 6.80 |
| Felix Doubront | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13.50 | 13.50 | 11.45 |
| Josh Beckett | 3 | 0 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 4 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 2.72 |
| Tim Wakefield | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 6.14 | 6.14 | 5.52 |
| Bobby Jenks | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.20 |
| Total | 8 | 1 | 81 | 68 | 37 | 35 | 10 | 31 | 78 | 10 | 4.11 | 3.89 | 4.40 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
That didn’t really help.
It would have been nice to have Alex Rodriguez back for this series, although maybe Eric Chavez can stay healthy through Sunday (assuming he’s off tonight with Jon Lester pitching).
Pitching matchups for the weekend are Colon vs. Lester tonight, CC vs. Lackey tomorrow, and Garcia vs. Beckett on Sunday. So the Yankees are probably slight underdogs tonight, favorites tomorrow, and strong underdogs Sunday. Logic says we should be happy if they take one of the three, and that’s the most likely scenario, but after losing 8 of 9 to Boston, including all 6 at home, I won’t be happy with anything less than a sweep.
I suppose I could settle for a 2-1 series win.
Seriously though, barring catastrophe both of these teams will be in the postseason, so I suppose we shouldn’t get that worked up about whatever happens here.
Thursday, August 4, 2011
Yankees.com: Nova pitches Yanks to sweep, tie for first
At U.S. Cellular Field on Thursday—less than 24 hours before beginning a weekend series against the Red Sox—the Yankees matched their longest winning streak of the season at seven, moved into a first-place tie after Boston’s loss to the Indians, and got a 4-1 win thanks to another dominant performance by a young starter.
On this night, it was Ivan Nova.
Nova, who made a solid big league return on Saturday and remained in the rotation this week, limited the spiraling White Sox to one run on six hits in 7 2/3 innings to run his season ERA to 3.81 and perhaps give manager Joe Girardi a bigger rotation question than he ever anticipated.
Tonight was the best Nova’s ever pitched IMO.
According to Pitch F/X, Nova threw his first cutter on May 28. Fangraphs says he doesn’t throw a cutter, that it’s a slider. Whatever it is, since he’s started throwing it Nova has been a different pitcher.
| Split | BF | BB/BF | K/BF |
| Through 5/21 | 226 | 9.3% | 11.5% |
| Since 5/28 | 235 | 7.2% | 17.4% |
We of course need to remember that sample size limits how much we can take from this, but it’s worth mentioning that changes in walk rate and strikeout rate tend to stabilize more quickly than a lot of other statistics. For walk rate, changes are generally meaningful after about 150 PA and for strikeout rate it’s about 200 PA.
Unfortunately for Nova, it’s going to be tough for the Yankees to work a six man rotation long-term. Since he won’t be available to pitch for at least three or four days and they’re probably not going to want to go into Fenway with a three man bench, he may get optioned back to AAA despite doing nothing but pitching well since his call up. Even if that happens, I get the sense it won’t be for long. Although there’s a rule that any player optioned to the minors has to spend 10 days down before being recalled, in the case of injury they can usually bypass that rule.
With Boston losing tonight, the Yankees will head to Fenway tied for first place in the AL East. I’ll make a bold prediction. By the end of this weekend’s series one team will be in first place and one will be in second place.
Monday, June 13, 2011
NY Times: With 18 Hits, the Yankees Are Humming Again
There was no meeting, no pep talk, no nothing after the Yankees were embarrassed by Boston last week. “Report at 4 o’clock the next day, that was it,” Curtis Granderson said. Every series has its own pace, its own rhythm. And at Yankee Stadium the thump-thump-thump of the Red Sox has given way to the off-key stylings of the Cleveland Indians..
The Boston series pissed me off to the point where I haven’t watched an inning of baseball since. I suppose I should be happy that the Yankees are beating up on a slumping Indians team, but if anything it’s just a reminder to me about how pathetic they were against Boston. Maybe I’d feel differently I’d watched the games.
I realize it’s not rational, but who said being a sports fan is rational?
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Just How Awful Have The Yankees Been Against Boston?
The Yankees dropped their seventh game in eight tries against the Red Sox last night in yet another inspired effort. It’s been frustrating to see the way the Yankees have rolled over for the Red Sox this year. What they’ve done is spotted Boston a six game advantage in the standings.
We know the won/loss record is bad. It’s even worse when you realize they’ve played three games in Boston and five(soon to be six) in New York and are on the verge of being swept at home twice. After today the Yankees will only play Boston three more times at home and they still have to play them six times in Fenway, which rarely goes well.
For a team to go 1-7 against another team while playing five of those eight games at home, they’d have to be around a 49 win team playing against a 113 win team. At this point I don’t doubt the Red Sox are better than the Yankees, but I’m not sure that they’re 65 wins better.
So let’s assign the blame.
| Player | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | HBP | K | SB | CS | GDP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAA |
| Russell Martin | 27 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .227 | .370 | .636 | 5 | 2 |
| Robinson Cano | 32 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .286 | .375 | .500 | 5 | 2 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.333 | 2 | 2 |
| Eric Chavez | 8 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .750 | 2 | 1 |
| Curtis Granderson | 36 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .219 | .306 | .500 | 5 | 1 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 32 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .207 | .281 | .448 | 4 | 0 |
| Jorge Posada | 16 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .286 | .375 | .286 | 2 | 0 |
| Andruw Jones | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .182 | .182 | .455 | 1 | 0 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .286 | .167 | 0 | 0 |
| Brett Gardner | 31 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .192 | .323 | .308 | 3 | -1 |
| Nick Swisher | 32 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .207 | .281 | .310 | 3 | -1 |
| Derek Jeter | 39 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .194 | .256 | .222 | 1 | -3 |
| Mark Teixeira | 34 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .138 | .235 | .138 | 1 | -3 |
| Total | 309 | 34 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 7 | 71 | 5 | 2 | 4 | .227 | .314 | .388 | 34 | 0 |
| AL Avg | 309 | 35 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 6 | .253 | .321 | .396 | 34 | 0 |
BR are linear weights batting runs. BRAA are BR above an average AL hitter, not adjusted for position.
Because the offense in MLB is down significantly this year, while that line looks awful relative to our normal context, in the context of today’s AL it’s not that bad. AL average line right now is .253/.321/.396. We also don’t know if that performance is good or bad in the context of the “strength” of the Yankees and the strength of the Red Sox. It’s really only useful in terms of comparing how the players stack up against each other. In this case you can see the Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira are the chief problems on offense, but there’s a whole lot of stinking going on there.
The team’s actual runs scored are a direct match for their batting runs, which indicates they’ve scored as many runs as they should have given their component stats and have not been unlucky or lucky in terms of how their performance has translated to runs on the scoreboard.
There’s more blame to dish out!
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | K | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAA |
| Freddy Garcia | 8.0 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 11.25 | 10.13 | 8.87 | -6.2 |
| A.J. Burnett | 5.7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12.71 | 11.12 | 6.22 | -5.3 |
| Phil Hughes | 2.0 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | 27.00 | 12.37 | -5.0 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 3.7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12.27 | 12.27 | 9.42 | -3.3 |
| Lance Pendleton | 1.7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16.20 | 16.20 | 19.67 | -2.2 |
| Ivan Nova | 4.3 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8.31 | 8.31 | 4.25 | -1.9 |
| CC Sabathia | 12.3 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 5.11 | 5.11 | 4.49 | -1.1 |
| Bartolo Colon | 10.3 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 4.35 | 2.61 | 3.55 | -0.1 |
| Rafael Soriano | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.87 | 0.5 |
| Mariano Rivera | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.87 | 0.5 |
| Hector Noesi | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.20 | 0.9 |
| David Robertson | 4.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2.25 | 0.00 | 3.12 | 0.9 |
| Boone Logan | 4.7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 3.08 | 1.2 |
| Luis Ayala | 5.3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 2.5 |
| Total | 70.0 | 80 | 52 | 47 | 12 | 42 | 4 | 52 | 6.69 | 6.04 | 5.58 | -18.7 |
| AL Avg | 70 | 67 | 33 | 30 | 7 | 25 | 3 | 52 | 4.28 | 3.91 | 3.91 | 0.0 |
RSAA are runs saved compared to an average pitcher using RA vs. league average RA. FIP is Fielding-independent pitching which focuses on a pitcher’s HR, BB/HBP and Ks against. Again, neither of these account for the context of the opponent so it’s more for comparison among Yankees.
I’m thinking the Yankees may want to skip Freddy Garcia’s next turn against Boston. The Yankees have allowed 52 total runs against Boston, and according to linear weights they should have allowed 49, so just like on offense there’s no evidence of bad luck here. They’ve pitched as poorly as the basic stats say they did. The Yankees have a team BABIP against of .281 this season against everyone but Boston. Against Boston it’s .311. Whether that’s on the pitchers or the defense or some combination of both, I don’t know.
It’s sad, but it’s gotten to the point where I am not even bothering to watch these games. When you finish dinner and turn on the game and see your team is already down 3-0 before they’ve even gotten an out, why watch?
I’d like to say I have a good feeling about CC Sabathia going today, but unfortunately with the Yankee offense backing him you get the feeling that anything less than perfection won’t be good enough.
Again, I’ll say I don’t think the Red Sox are 65 wins better than the Yankees. 60, maybe.
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Yankees.com: Garcia’s early struggles doom Yankees
NEW YORK—Freddy Garcia’s shortest start of the season put the Yankees in an early hole from which they couldn’t claw out, trailing the whole way in a 6-4 loss to the Red Sox on Tuesday at Yankee Stadium.
—
It was a painful night in more ways than one. In the first inning, Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira was drilled on the right kneecap by Lester, leaving the game with what was diagnosed as a contusion after X-rays were negative.
The Boston Red Sox are now 6-1 against the Boston Doormats.
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
Wall Street Journal: Yankees, Sox Are Finally Looking Like Their Old Selves
First the Red Sox didn’t live up to their end of the bargain, struggling to an 0-6 start early in the season.
Then the reeling Yankees dropped three in a row to the Red Sox at home.
Now, the principles of logic and reason have returned to their Earthly thrones. The Yankees enter this week’s three-game series at Yankee Stadium with 33 wins and 24 losses, and the Red Sox come in a game behind.
The rivals are both playing well and are locked, just as they should be, in a battle for first place in the American League East. “There was a lot of talk early on when they were struggling. Well, they’re not struggling anymore,’’ Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “They’re playing good baseball.”
Would it kill the Yankees to win a series against Boston this year?
Thursday, June 2, 2011
A Brief Foray into Run Differentials and Component Stats
At this point in the season, the Yankees have the second best winning percentage in the AL.
| Team | a% |
| CLE | .623 |
| NYY | .574 |
| BOS | .536 |
| TEX | .536 |
| DET | .527 |
| TBR | .527 |
| SEA | .509 |
| LAA | .500 |
| TOR | .500 |
| OAK | .474 |
| CHW | .466 |
| BAL | .463 |
| KCR | .455 |
| MIN | .315 |
Over a full season at the actual winning percentage the Yankees would be about a 93 win team, with Cleveland at 101.
Now of course over 1/3 of a season actual winning percentage can be misleading since teams might be winning or losing more games than their actual performance merits. So you can look at something like Pythagenpat to get a better sense of how well a team has played so far and what it might mean going forward.
| Team | p% |
| NYY | .629 |
| CLE | .582 |
| TEX | .563 |
| TBR | .543 |
| TOR | .542 |
| BOS | .540 |
| LAA | .506 |
| OAK | .496 |
| DET | .486 |
| CHW | .480 |
| SEA | .478 |
| KCR | .462 |
| BAL | .422 |
| MIN | .322 |
If you do that, the Yankees look more like a 102 win team, which would be eight wins better than Cleveland and 11 wins better than Boston.
Although Pythagenpat does a pretty good job of estimating a team’s level of play, their actual runs scored and runs allowed might be skewed due to better or worse than expected performances in high leverage situations that are not necessarily repeatable going forward.
You can use linear weights batting runs to account for that. What’s nice about doing that is you can put offense and pitching/defense on the same scale if you use all the same components.
| Team | b% |
| NYY | .599 |
| TEX | .568 |
| BOS | .562 |
| CLE | .559 |
| TOR | .533 |
| TBR | .526 |
| OAK | .526 |
| LAA | .524 |
| DET | .504 |
| CHW | .479 |
| SEA | .469 |
| KCR | .435 |
| BAL | .423 |
| MIN | .343 |
This method also shows that the Yankees have played better than any other team in the AL, and would have them at around 97 wins, five wins ahead of Cleveland and six games ahead of Boston.
We do need to be cognizant that how a team has played so far only tells us so much about how good they are now and how good they’ll be going forward. Regression towards the mean, injuries/roster changes and a whole host of other things are going to have an impact on how a team does moving forward.
But at least as of right now, the Yankees have probably been the best team in the league and the difference isn’t trivial.
All this is moot when Rafael Soriano returns to blow games though.
What A Difference Five Days Can Make
On May 28 in this post I referenced some standings projections I’d done at that point, which had the Red Sox projected to end the year around 93-69, with the Yankees at 91-71 and the Rays at 88-74. Here’s how that compares to a re-run as of last night’s games.
| Team | 5/28 xW | 6/1 xW | D xW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 91.2 | 93.2 | 2.0 |
| Blue Jays | 76.6 | 78.5 | 1.9 |
| Rays | 87.5 | 86.6 | -0.9 |
| Orioles | 74.2 | 72.9 | -1.3 |
| Red Sox | 93.1 | 90.1 | -3.0 |
xW: Expected wins
Thank you White Sox.
Enjoy it while you can, since the Angels are going to sweep the Yankees this weekend and effectively return things to how they were on 5/28.
Sunday, May 29, 2011
Inconsistency On Offense
Suppose you had a team that projected to be one of the better if not the best offensive team in baseball heading into the season. Suppose that with just over one-fourth of the season now in the books for the most part they’ve been at or near the top of the league in terms of average runs scored per game. Despite that they’ve been frustrating to watch at times, as it seems they too often score fewer runs than you’d expect given their average runs per game.
In a case like that, you’ll often see the argument made that their average runs scored per game is propped up by a few blowouts, and if you remove those from the average you will have a more realistic assessment of how good they really are.
So let’s take away the top three highest-scoring games from that team and see what their average runs scored per game is.
Yep, if you do that, Boston’s R/G goes from 4.88 to 4.29.
Oh, the Yankees? 5.14 to 4.61.
Saturday, May 28, 2011
TGS NY: Joe’s handling of ‘pen not so mighty
David Robertson got out of a bed in Tuscaloosa, Alabama at 4:30 a.m. Eastern time Friday morning. Nearly 20 hours later, he was on the mound at Safeco Field, doing his job to perfection, pitching an overpowering eighth inning against the Mariners.
Trouble was, the game had already been lost two innings earlier.
But that’s what happens when a manager sticks to a game plan even if the game no longer fits his plan.
Robertson, back from a mission of mercy to his tornado-ravaged hometown, was no doubt the most tired man in the Yankee bullpen. He was also the only one able to do his job. Unfortunately, by the time he was asked to do it, it was too late. At the time, the Yankees trailed 4-3, and that’s the way it would stay.
I didn’t get to watch the game, so I’d be interested in everyone else’s take, but here’s how I see the situation. With Burnett at 97 pitches with five walks through five innings, I don’t think anyone would quibble with the fact that he was pulled prior to the sixth inning. So the question then is who should have started the bottom of the sixth. With Adam Kennedy (LHB), Miguel Olivo (RHB) and Carlos Peguero (LHB) due up, I can understand the thought process behind starting the sixth inning with Boone Logan. You need to get four innings out of your bullpen, so unless you want one of Robertson, Joba Chamberlain or Mariano Rivera to pitch two innings you needed to get some outs from someone other than those three.
Logan allowed a leadoff single to Kennedy. So now with a RHB up and with the likelihood of a pinch-hitter for Peguero to re-gain the platoon advantage, going to the bullpen for a RHP made sense as well. Unfortunately, Girardi opted for Luis Ayala instead of Robertson and that’s when the game was lost.
Ayala probably would have pitched an inning at some point in the game, so the real problem is that he and Logan didn’t do their jobs. However, once Kennedy reached Girardi should have used a better pitcher due to the leverage of the situation, and not the pitcher who’s ordinal spot in the bullpen hierarchy was now due. If you intended to pitch Robertson or Chamberlain if necessary anyway, they’d have been the better choices in that spot. If they extended themselves to get out of the inning, you could then go to Ayala to begin the seventh with whichever of Robertson or Chamberlain wasn’t used as a safety net to get the game to Rivera.
Again, the real issue is that Logan and Ayala didn’t execute. But it’s fair to say that Girardi’s deployment of the bullpen after Logan is also culpable.
The Yankees really don’t have much margin for error on this road trip if you look at the schedule for the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays over the rest of this West Coast swing.
| Date | Yankee | xW | xL | Red Sox | xW | xL | Rays | xW | xL |
| 5/28/2011 | @ Mariners | .58 | .42 | @ Tigers | .53 | .47 | vs Indians | .58 | .42 |
| 5/29/2011 | @ Mariners | .58 | .42 | @ Tigers | .53 | .47 | vs Indians | .58 | .42 |
| 5/30/2011 | @ Athletics | .51 | .49 | vs White Sox | .62 | .38 | vs Rangers | .54 | .46 |
| 5/31/2011 | @ Athletics | .51 | .49 | vs White Sox | .62 | .38 | vs Rangers | .54 | .46 |
| 6/1/2011 | @ Athletics | .51 | .49 | vs White Sox | .62 | .38 | vs Rangers | .54 | .46 |
| 6/2/2011 | @Mariners | .54 | .46 | ||||||
| 6/3/2011 | @ Angels | .54 | .46 | vs Athletics | .59 | .41 | @Mariners | .54 | .46 |
| 6/4/2011 | @ Angels | .54 | .46 | vs Athletics | .59 | .41 | @Mariners | .54 | .46 |
| 6/5/2011 | @ Angels | .54 | .46 | vs Athletics | .59 | .41 | @Mariners | .54 | .46 |
| 4.32 | 3.68 | 4.72 | 3.28 | 4.95 | 4.05 |
At this point Boston and the Rays have around a one game advantage over the Yankees over the next nine days, at which point the Yankees will return home to face Boston, Cleveland and Texas on a nine game home stand. It’s not inconceivable that the Yankees could be trailing Boston and/or Tampa Bay by three or four games by then. And that’s not exactly the kind of home stand that would allow the Yankees to catch up if they falter on the rest of this trip.
Right now I’ve got Boston projected to finish around 93-69, the Yankees around 91-71 and Tampa Bay around 88-74. If that’s how things still look by the end of this road trip I’d happily take it.
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Neyer: Mets vs. Yankees: Dickey Pitches Red Sox Into Second Place
The Mets opened the season in fine fashion, taking three of their first four decisions. But since losing their next two games, the Mets have spent all spring—the nadir of which was April 16, when they lost their seventh straight and fell to 4-11—fighting and scratching to get back to .500.
Well, Friday night they got there: 22-22, with their 22nd win the sweetest of all, considering the opposition.
...
Which was just one comeback, and perhaps not the more impressive. The Boston Red Sox opened this season with six straight losses. Exactly two weeks ago, the preseason favorites to win the American League pennant were sitting in last place, five games behind the first-place Yankees.Tonight, though, the Red Sox can thank the New York Mets. Because with the Yankees losing and the Red Sox destroying the Chicago Cubs, 15-5, the Red Sox have somehow passed the Yankees and taken second place, and are just a half-game behind the first place Tampa Bay Rays. And suddenly, it seems that order might be restored to the American League East proceedings before the calendar even turns to June.
Congratulations to the Red Sox on their AL East title, and to the Rays on their AL wild card berth. Good luck in the postseason.
Sunday, May 15, 2011
NY Post: Selfish squad of pretenders, not contenders
The bottom line is that the Yankees are nothing special right now and haven’t been for quite some time. These Yankees need to get it in gear in so many ways, not just because Posada has had a problem with being “disrespected.” And not just because he removed himself from the lineup an hour before the 6-0 loss to the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium, saying he “couldn’t play” and needed time to “clear my head.”
I have no opinions on the headline and/or the teams’ alleged selfishness. I just think this team is tough to watch right now. I’m also frustrated that they’ve pissed away the chance to take advantage of Boston and Tampa Bay’s slow start to the year.
Losing five of six games at home to Kansas City and Boston is a disaster, and one that looks like a distinct possibility with Jon Lester going tonight against Freddy Garcia. After tonight the Yankees then have to go to Tampa Bay for two games where of course they’ll draw David Price and James Shields in those games.
Friday, May 13, 2011
The Implications of this Weekend’s Series with Boston
The Red Sox have been playing better since their rough start but are still trying to fight their way to .500. The Yankees have stumbled a bit over their last ten games, losing 6 and are now in second place in the AL East behind the Tampa Bay Rays, although even in the loss column.
So with a three game set beginning tonight in the Bronx between the Yankees and Boston, here’s a look at how the different ways this series may affect the AL East going forward.
First of all, here’s how my Monte Carlo simulator says the AL East would play out as of today.
| Team | W | L | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 85.8 | 76.2 | 14.6% | 17.6% | 32.1% |
| Yankees | 92.1 | 69.9 | 50.8% | 23.7% | 74.5% |
| Rays | 89.8 | 72.2 | 34.3% | 27.6% | 61.9% |
| Blue Jays | 74.1 | 87.9 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| Orioles | 74.5 | 87.5 | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% |
W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
When Boston sweeps this series, here’s how things will look.
| Team | W | L | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 87.5 | 74.5 | 23.2% | 22.1% | 45.3% |
| Yankees | 90.3 | 71.7 | 38.2% | 25.3% | 63.4% |
| Rays | 90.0 | 72.0 | 38.0% | 23.5% | 61.5% |
| Blue Jays | 73.6 | 88.4 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Orioles | 74.5 | 87.5 | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% |
There’s a miniscule chance the Yankees take one of the three games, and if that were to happen here’s how things would shake out.
| Team | W | L | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 86.4 | 75.6 | 15.8% | 20.9% | 36.6% |
| Yankees | 91.5 | 70.5 | 46.9% | 24.5% | 71.5% |
| Rays | 90.0 | 72.0 | 37.1% | 23.8% | 60.9% |
| Blue Jays | 73.8 | 88.2 | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
| Orioles | 74.1 | 87.9 | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
I suppose there’s an infinitesimal chance the Yankees take two of three games in which case here’s how things would project going forward.
| Team | W | L | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 85.7 | 76.3 | 13.8% | 18.6% | 32.4% |
| Yankees | 91.9 | 70.1 | 50.4% | 23.6% | 73.9% |
| Rays | 90.2 | 71.8 | 35.4% | 27.5% | 62.9% |
| Blue Jays | 74.3 | 87.7 | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% |
| Orioles | 74.0 | 88.0 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
In the completely theoretical and impossible scenario where the Yankees sweep, this would be the net result.
| Team | W | L | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 84.6 | 77.4 | 10.6% | 15.6% | 26.1% |
| Yankees | 93.5 | 68.5 | 58.3% | 24.5% | 82.8% |
| Rays | 89.9 | 72.1 | 30.5% | 28.8% | 59.3% |
| Blue Jays | 73.6 | 88.4 | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| Orioles | 74.3 | 87.7 | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% |
One of my foibles is superstition. Because of that, I see no way a series against Boston that kicks off on a Friday the 13th is going to go well. Hopefully I’m wrong.
Thursday, April 7, 2011
The Implications of This Weekend’s Series with Boston
You may or may not have heard, but the best team in baseball history has gotten off to a rough start at 0-6. It’s important to understand what that means in the big picture. It’s too small of a sample size to meaningfully change our estimate of how good they are. However, those games do count, and they do need to be factored into whatever we forecast Boston to do going forward.
If Boston was a 94-95 win team over 162 games at the start of the year, they’re probably still a 94-95 win team. However, they only have 156 games left to play. At the same winning percentage, they’re more like a 91 win team now. Here’s a quick look at the average projections for the AL East at the start of the season according to the aggregate from the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout.
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 94.4 | 67.6 | 817 | 687 | 42.1% | 17.8% | 59.8% |
| Yankees | 92.4 | 69.6 | 812 | 707 | 32.8% | 18.2% | 51.0% |
| Rays | 86.1 | 75.9 | 762 | 704 | 16.0% | 13.4% | 29.4% |
| Orioles | 78.6 | 83.4 | 748 | 777 | 6.0% | 6.5% | 12.5% |
| Blue Jays | 73.9 | 88.1 | 686 | 751 | 3.1% | 3.2% | 6.3% |
W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
It’s certainly possible that some of these projections were wrong from the start, but we don’t have enough information to know that yet.
Re-running that exercise taking into account what’s actually happened to this point gives us these revised results.
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Yankees | 92.1 | 69.9 | 812 | 707 | 40.2% | 16.4% | 56.6% |
| Red Sox | 91.1 | 70.9 | 817 | 687 | 36.5% | 19.3% | 55.8% |
| Rays | 81.8 | 80.2 | 762 | 704 | 12.9% | 9.5% | 22.4% |
| Orioles | 77.8 | 84.2 | 748 | 777 | 6.3% | 6.9% | 13.2% |
| Blue Jays | 73.5 | 88.5 | 686 | 751 | 4.2% | 3.5% | 7.6% |
So if everything played out as projected going forward (it won’t), the Yankees are now slight favorites in the AL East. That was easy enough.
Using that as our new baseline, here are how those would look depending on the various potential results of the Yankees’ three game series in Fenway this weekend.
Boston Sweeps
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 92.4 | 69.6 | 817 | 687 | 41.3% | 18.2% | 59.5% |
| Yankees | 90.1 | 71.9 | 812 | 707 | 34.1% | 16.9% | 51.1% |
| Rays | 83.0 | 79.0 | 762 | 704 | 14.0% | 10.8% | 24.8% |
| Orioles | 78.3 | 83.7 | 748 | 777 | 7.8% | 6.9% | 14.7% |
| Blue Jays | 73.0 | 89.1 | 686 | 751 | 2.8% | 3.5% | 6.3% |
This is basically how things looked in the preseason, with Boston about two games better than the Yankees.
Boston wins 2 of 3
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 91.4 | 70.6 | 817 | 687 | 37.3% | 17.3% | 54.6% |
| Yankees | 91.3 | 70.7 | 812 | 707 | 35.9% | 18.0% | 53.9% |
| Rays | 82.4 | 79.6 | 762 | 704 | 15.7% | 11.5% | 27.1% |
| Orioles | 78.3 | 83.7 | 748 | 777 | 7.8% | 7.8% | 15.6% |
| Blue Jays | 73.4 | 88.6 | 686 | 751 | 3.4% | 3.3% | 6.7% |
For all intents and purposes that makes things a dead heat.
Yankees win 2 of 3
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Yankees | 92.0 | 70.0 | 812 | 707 | 40.6% | 18.6% | 59.1% |
| Red Sox | 90.6 | 71.4 | 817 | 687 | 35.9% | 18.1% | 53.9% |
| Rays | 81.9 | 80.1 | 762 | 704 | 13.0% | 9.4% | 22.4% |
| Orioles | 78.6 | 83.4 | 748 | 777 | 8.0% | 7.7% | 15.7% |
| Blue Jays | 72.8 | 89.2 | 686 | 751 | 2.6% | 3.7% | 6.3% |
While not my ideal scenario, I would approve of this outcome.
Yankees Sweep
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Yankees | 93.9 | 68.1 | 812 | 707 | 47.2% | 17.0% | 64.2% |
| Red Sox | 89.3 | 72.7 | 817 | 687 | 29.6% | 16.8% | 46.4% |
| Rays | 82.3 | 79.7 | 762 | 704 | 13.4% | 10.7% | 24.1% |
| Orioles | 77.7 | 84.3 | 748 | 777 | 6.5% | 6.5% | 13.0% |
| Blue Jays | 73.1 | 88.9 | 686 | 751 | 3.3% | 3.6% | 6.9% |
This is my preferred result.
These odds can swing pretty wildly after just a few games, so don’t take them too seriously. This is particularly true in baseball where divisional rivals play each other so frequently.
Now obviously it’s really early in the season and we have no idea what will actually happen, but can you imagine the hysteria if the Yankees take all three games?
Looking at the pitching matchups, the Yankees are probably underdogs in the first two games.
Friday, April 8
Phil “88 mph” Hughes vs. John “World Series Hero” Lackey
Saturday, April 9
Ivan Nova vs. Clay Buchholz
The good news is they should probably be slight favorites in the finale
Sunday, April 10
CC “Future Red Sock” Sabathia vs. Josh “Guardian of playing the game right” Beckett
So the most likely scenario is that the Red Sox take two of three, and really that’s fine with me. I just don’t want to see the Yankees get swept.
Monday, April 4, 2011
2011 March/April Expectations
I was looking at the Yankees’ early season schedule and wanted to see what a reasonable expectation is for their performance over the next month. So using the 2011 CAIRO projected team W/L records and Bill James’s log 5 expected win method, here’s how things look.
| Date | Game | xW | xL | aW | aL | aW-xW | cxW | cxL | caW | caL | caW-cxW |
| 3/31/2011 | vs Tigers | .61 | .39 | 1 | 0 | .39 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| 4/2/2011 | vs Tigers | .61 | .39 | 1 | 0 | .39 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| 4/3/2011 | vs Tigers | .61 | .39 | 0 | 1 | -.61 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 4/4/2011 | vs Twins | .61 | .39 | 2.4 | 1.6 | ||||||
| 4/5/2011 | vs Twins | .61 | .39 | 3.0 | 2.0 | ||||||
| 4/6/2011 | vs Twins | .61 | .39 | 3.6 | 2.4 | ||||||
| 4/7/2011 | vs Twins | .61 | .39 | 4.2 | 2.8 | ||||||
| 4/8/2011 | @ Red Sox | .45 | .55 | 4.7 | 3.3 | ||||||
| 4/9/2011 | @ Red Sox | .45 | .55 | 5.1 | 3.9 | ||||||
| 4/10/2011 | @ Red Sox | .45 | .55 | 5.6 | 4.4 | ||||||
| 4/12/2011 | vs Orioles | .64 | .36 | 6.2 | 4.8 | ||||||
| 4/13/2011 | vs Orioles | .64 | .36 | 6.9 | 5.1 | ||||||
| 4/14/2011 | vs Orioles | .64 | .36 | 7.5 | 5.5 | ||||||
| 4/15/2011 | vs Rangers | .56 | .44 | 8.1 | 5.9 | ||||||
| 4/16/2011 | vs Rangers | .56 | .44 | 8.6 | 6.4 | ||||||
| 4/17/2011 | vs Rangers | .56 | .44 | 9.2 | 6.8 | ||||||
| 4/19/2011 | @ Blue Jays | .57 | .43 | 9.8 | 7.2 | ||||||
| 4/20/2011 | @ Blue Jays | .57 | .43 | 10.3 | 7.7 | ||||||
| 4/22/2011 | @ Orioles | .56 | .44 | 10.9 | 8.1 | ||||||
| 4/23/2011 | @ Orioles | .56 | .44 | 11.5 | 8.5 | ||||||
| 4/24/2011 | @ Orioles | .56 | .44 | 12.0 | 9.0 | ||||||
| 4/25/2011 | vs White Sox | .61 | .39 | 12.6 | 9.4 | ||||||
| 4/26/2011 | vs White Sox | .61 | .39 | 13.2 | 9.8 | ||||||
| 4/27/2011 | vs White Sox | .61 | .39 | 13.8 | 10.2 | ||||||
| 4/28/2011 | vs White Sox | .61 | .39 | 14.4 | 10.6 | ||||||
| 4/29/2011 | vs Blue Jays | .65 | .35 | 15.1 | 10.9 | ||||||
| 4/30/2011 | vs Blue Jays | .65 | .35 | 15.7 | 11.3 |
xW: Expected win probability
xL: Expected loss probability
aW: Actual win
aL: Actual loss
aW-xW: Actual win minus expected win. Positive is good, negative is bad
cxW: Cumulative xW
cxL: Cumulative expected losses
caW: Cumulative actual wins
caL: Cumulative actual losses
caW-cxW: Cumulative actual wins minus cumulative expected wins
The key thing here is the home/road split. The Yankees play 19 of their first 27 games at home, which is a big advantage. Of course, that then means that at some point in the year they’re going to play a whole bunch of games on the road, which is a disadvantage. The Yankees play 47 of their first 81 games at home(58%), which means the second half of the season has the potential to be rough. So, if they want to leave April on a pace that would match their season-long expectations, they really need to go 16-11 or so. Well, actually 14-10 since they took two of three from Detroit which puts them about 0.2 wins ahead of these expectations.
Since I know someone will ask, Boston has to play 15 of their first 27 games on the road. In an eerie coincidence they have the exact same log5 expected record. That’s because their games are against a somewhat weaker group of opponents. If you sum the projected winning percentages of each team’s opponents on a game by game basis, the Yankees collective opponents have a winning percentage of about .508 and the Red Sox have an opponent winning percentage of .502. It’s a difference of about a game over a month. Since the Red Sox got swept in Texas, they’re currently about 1.5 games off their expectations and need to go something like 16-8 through the end of April to catch up.
If the aggregate results of the 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout were accurate, the Red Sox were projected as being about two games better than the Yankees. Since the Yankees are now 0.2 wins ahead of where they projected to be and Boston’s 1.5 games behind where they’re projected to be, the two teams are essentially on equal footing now. So it’ll be a dogfight for the wild card behind the surging Baltimore Orioles.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
NY Post: Report: Showalter rips Jeter
Showalter, the former Yankees skipper who took command of the Orioles last season, told the magazine he “screamed” at the Bombers’ captain last season at Yankee Stadium.
“Our guys are thinking, ‘Wow, he’s screaming at Derek Jeter.’ Well, he’s always jumping back from balls just off the plate. I know how many calls that team gets—and yes, he [ticks] me off.”
Showalter also blasted the Red Sox, mocking the notion that Boston’s biggest offseason acquisitions—Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez—were indicative of general manager Theo Epstein’s savvy.
“I’d like to see how smart Theo Epstein is with the Tampa Bay [Rays] payroll,” Showalter said. “You got Carl Crawford ‘cause you paid more than anyone else, and that’s what makes you smarter? That’s why I like whipping their butt.
Buck hates Jeter and the Red Sox? Sounds like he reads this blog.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Updated Still Too Early 2011 AL East Standings Projection
With the Rays signing Johnny Damon/Manny Ramirez and the Jays trading Vernon Wells for Mike Napoli/Juan Rivera I was curious to see how it may AL East projected standings from this post may have changed, and here it is.
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 94.9 | 67.1 | 834 | 693 | 45.5% | 16.3% | 61.8% |
| Yankees | 90.3 | 71.7 | 819 | 739 | 25.4% | 17.4% | 42.8% |
| Rays | 88.1 | 73.9 | 736 | 663 | 19.8% | 15.1% | 34.9% |
| Blue Jays | 77.9 | 84.1 | 721 | 738 | 5.6% | 5.6% | 11.2% |
| Orioles | 75.5 | 86.5 | 732 | 796 | 3.8% | 4.0% | 7.8% |
W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
Things appear to be getting pretty tight. This is going to make Boston beating out the 1927 Yankees as “best team of evah” particularly noteworthy.
Saturday, January 1, 2011
NESN: 2011 Red Sox Will Challenge 1927 Yankees for Title of Greatest Team in Major League History
The 2001 Mariners won 116 regular-season games to set the American League record for most wins in a single season and tie the 1906 Cubs for the major league record (though the North Siders accomplished the feat in 152 games). Both those teams failed to win the World Series. The Cubs lost to the White Sox in six games in the Fall Classic. The Mariners didn’t even make it that far, falling to the Yankees in five games in the ALCS.
The Red Sox have no intention of suffering a similar fate. The way they are constructed, they could surpass the 116-win mark, but nothing less than a World Series title will make Boston happy.
If we assume the Red Sox are about a 98 win team in terms of true talent, then they have about a 0.026 (2.6%) chance of winning 116 games. If we assume that the postseason version of the Red Sox is in fact a 116 win team, and they have to advance through three rounds of postseason series against .500 level opponents they’d have about a 0.367 (36.7%) chance of winning the World Series.
0.026 times 0.367 = 0.009 (0.9%).
I’m going to go out on a limb and say the author is wrong.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Extremely Early CAIRO 2011 MLB Projected Standings
Around this time every year I like to run projected standings for the upcoming MLB season. It’s very limited in telling us much about how 2011 will play out since there are still a lot of roster changes coming, but it may give us some sense of how the offseason has impacted teams to this point and it also shows us how things would look if nothing changed from now until April. Which won’t happen.
Since this point is not readily comprehensible for people of limited intelligence I’ll reiterate it. It’s too early to construct meaningful rosters for a lot of teams, so these projections will favor the teams that have essentially completed their 2011 rosters.
In addition to that, projection systems are inherently limited. They are designed to estimate a player’s true talent based on what they’ve done so far and also by factoring in things like age and how similar players have performed in the past. They will generally be in the ballpark for the general population of MLB players, but they can miss significantly on individual players which can obviously affect certain teams more heavily than others.
So, anyway, using the depth charts from the wonderful MLB Depth Charts and includng playing time from players on the 40 man roster who don’t necessarily figure to be part of the the opening day 25 man rosters to account for organizational depth and playing out next season 10,000 times, here’s how CAIRO v0.3 sees things as of December 27, 2010.
| Date | 12/28/2010 | |||||||||
| Iterations | 10000 | |||||||||
| American League | ||||||||||
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Red Sox | 98.1 | 63.9 | 856 | 690 | 54.6% | 15.6% | 70.2% | 9.1 | 38 | -54 |
| Yankees | 89.1 | 72.9 | 835 | 740 | 23.2% | 21.7% | 44.9% | -5.9 | -24 | 47 |
| Rays | 87.1 | 74.9 | 707 | 640 | 17.9% | 18.7% | 36.6% | -8.9 | -95 | -9 |
| Blue Jays | 74.1 | 87.9 | 693 | 737 | 2.6% | 5.8% | 8.4% | -10.9 | -62 | 9 |
| Orioles | 70.1 | 91.9 | 723 | 813 | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.1 | 110 | 28 |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Twins | 85.7 | 76.3 | 752 | 715 | 33.3% | 6.2% | 39.5% | -8.3 | -29 | 44 |
| White Sox | 84.5 | 77.5 | 735 | 711 | 28.4% | 6.2% | 34.5% | -3.5 | -17 | 7 |
| Tigers | 84.0 | 78.0 | 727 | 712 | 27.5% | 4.6% | 32.0% | 3.0 | -24 | -31 |
| Indians | 73.9 | 88.1 | 728 | 802 | 8.2% | 2.7% | 10.8% | 4.9 | 82 | 50 |
| Royals | 66.9 | 95.1 | 678 | 815 | 2.8% | 1.1% | 3.9% | -0.1 | 2 | -30 |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Rangers | 89.2 | 72.8 | 746 | 673 | 50.1% | 4.5% | 54.6% | -0.8 | -41 | -14 |
| Athletics | 82.1 | 79.9 | 678 | 667 | 26.1% | 4.3% | 30.4% | 1.1 | 15 | 41 |
| Angels | 77.9 | 84.1 | 665 | 690 | 15.5% | 3.2% | 18.7% | -2.1 | -16 | -12 |
| Mariners | 72.2 | 89.8 | 635 | 703 | 8.4% | 2.5% | 10.9% | 11.2 | 122 | 5 |
| National League | ||||||||||
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Phillies | 96.1 | 65.9 | 754 | 618 | 54.5% | 11.0% | 65.5% | -0.9 | -18 | -22 |
| Braves | 88.5 | 73.5 | 754 | 690 | 26.6% | 13.3% | 39.9% | -2.5 | 16 | 61 |
| Mets | 76.6 | 85.4 | 675 | 702 | 7.1% | 4.5% | 11.6% | -2.4 | 19 | 50 |
| Marlins | 77.3 | 84.7 | 679 | 708 | 8.7% | 5.0% | 13.7% | -2.7 | -40 | -9 |
| Nationals | 72.4 | 89.6 | 659 | 733 | 3.2% | 2.0% | 5.2% | 13.4 | -51 | -141 |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Cardinals | 90.2 | 71.8 | 746 | 676 | 35.0% | 12.0% | 47.0% | 4.2 | 10 | 35 |
| Brewers | 87.2 | 74.8 | 698 | 650 | 27.9% | 8.9% | 36.7% | 10.2 | -52 | -154 |
| Reds | 85.5 | 76.5 | 723 | 689 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 31.7% | -5.5 | -67 | 4 |
| Cubs | 79.3 | 82.7 | 742 | 761 | 10.5% | 6.3% | 16.8% | 4.3 | 57 | -6 |
| Pirates | 67.7 | 94.3 | 671 | 808 | 2.1% | 1.2% | 3.3% | -6.3 | 28 | 38 |
| Astros | 65.8 | 96.2 | 604 | 732 | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.8 | -32 | -36 |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Rockies | 85.9 | 76.1 | 768 | 732 | 31.7% | 5.9% | 37.6% | 2.9 | -2 | 15 |
| Giants | 84.2 | 77.8 | 699 | 667 | 24.1% | 6.6% | 30.6% | -7.8 | 2 | 84 |
| Dodgers | 83.3 | 78.7 | 677 | 659 | 20.3% | 7.2% | 27.5% | 3.3 | 10 | -33 |
| Padres | 81.2 | 80.8 | 647 | 652 | 17.7% | 5.0% | 22.6% | -8.8 | -18 | 71 |
| Diamondbacks | 73.8 | 88.2 | 690 | 757 | 6.4% | 1.9% | 8.3% | 3.8 | -30 | -25 |
W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)
The only reason I am showing wins and losses to one decimal place is so I don’t have to answer questions about why the wins and losses don’t add up to exactly 2430. There is no way to imply that something like this can be precise to that level.
Did I mention that it’s still too early to do this, and that it shouldn’t be taken seriously?
I guess it’s not exactly news that Boston and Philadelphia look to be the two best teams in baseball right now. Although it’s easy for lazy analysts to make the claim that Tampa Bay is going to be bad because they lost Carl Crawford and their whole bullpen, it’s just not true. They’ve won the AL East in two of the past three seasons, and they have a ton of pitching talent in the minors. Jake McGee looks like a potentially dominant closer. They also won 96 games last year despite getting very little production out of first base and DH. Losing Crawford hurts, but Desmond Jennings is another good prospect who has a chance to mitigate that a bit as well.
Toronto tends to project worse than they actually end up doing every year, mainly because they’ve always seemed to get better than expected pitching. They’ve lost John Buck and Shaun Marcum from last year’s team, and CAIRO is expecting Jose Bautista will not hit 54 HRs again which explains most of their drop.
The Orioles tend to project better than they actually end up doing every year, but perhaps they’ll Buck that trend in 2011.
As for our Yankees, they’re still a good team. They’re just not as good as Boston on paper right now. That doesn’t mean they can’t win the division, it just means that they need some players to exceed their projections (A.J.?) and/or some players from Boston/Tampa Bay to underperform some of their’s. If they can add Andy Pettitte or some league average starter who can give them 180 innings or so that’s probably worth another two wins over Ivan Nova/Sergio Mitre.
Right now the AL Central looks pretty tightly bunched at the top between the White Sox, Tigers and Twins. Cleveland should be able to hold off KC for fourth place, although if Melky-mania runs wild who knows?
The West looks like Texas’s to lose, even without Cliff “The Big Train” Lee. LA of A could pick up about three wins if they sign Adrian Beltre, but that alone doesn’t seem like it’d be enough to get them up to Texas’s level.
I don’t know if the Phillies are as good as Boston, although they may be a better short series team. They are almost certainly the tallest midget in the circus known as the National League, but they’re not some 110 win juggernaut on paper. The Braves seem to be the second best team in the NL East and should at least be a strong contender for the wild card.
The Cardinals still appear to have the best front-line talent in the NL Central although Milwaukee has improved themselves significantly. The Reds are not far off from the top either.
The NL West is also tightly bunched at the top, with only about four wins separating first place through fourth.
Did I mention that it’s too early for this to be taken too seriously?
Friday, December 3, 2010
ESPN Boston: Source: Sox courted Mariano Rivera
BOSTON—The Red Sox offered reliever Mariano Rivera a two-year, $30 million deal and were prepared to non-tender closer Jonathan Papelbon, according to a baseball source with direct knowledge of the negotiations.
Rivera turned down the Red Sox to return to the Yankees, who offered the same money as Boston. Rivera’s pending agreement with the Yankees was first reported by the New York Daily News.
If Mo wound up in Boston, it’d be the worst baseball moment since they canceled the 2004 ALCS after Game 3.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Middletown Press: Will the Red Sox catch the Yankees?
Well, the Yanks are in a tailspin the last of couple weeks, falling into second place - and the Red Sox are hot all of a sudden and only six games behind the Yankees in the wild card race.
And guess what? The Sox and Yanks still have six games left with each other - with the final series of the season at Fenway Park.
What do you think? Can the Sox catch the Yanks?
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Yankees.com: Bombers win close finale against White Sox
Marcus Thames hit his third homer of the series and Ivan Nova was stellar in his second big league start.
That pretty much sums it up. The Yankee bullpen made things interesting in relief of Nova but pitched 3.1 scoreless innings and the Yanks held on for the 2-1 win and split their six game road trip against Toronto and the White Sox.
Thames has been a critical part for a team that’s gotten a lot of disappointing performances from some of their expected key players. It’s not often that an NRI to spring training ends up being a key contributor all season, but that’s exactly what Thames has been. Just keep him off the field…
Nova looked better today than he did in his first start IMO. The velocity was still impressive, but he seemed to have better command of his curve this time and threw it a bit more.
BrooksBaseball.net PitchFX Tool: Ivan Nova, 8/29/2010
| Pitch Type | Avg Speed | Max Speed | Avg H-Break | Avg V-Break | Count | Strikes / % | Swinging Strikes / % |
| FA (Fastball) | 94.2 | 97.1 | -4.34 | 8.01 | 63 | 44 / 69.84% | 5 / 7.94% |
| CH (Changeup) | 87.3 | 87.3 | -2.81 | 3.25 | 1 | 1 / 100.00% | 0 / 0.00% |
| CU (Curveball) | 83.0 | 87.1 | 3.09 | -4.32 | 24 | 13 / 54.17% | 3 / 12.50% |
Frankly, at this point I’d rather see Nova starting than anyone except CC or Hughes (at least until Pettitte comes back).
Also of note, Joba Chamberlain hit 100 mph in the eighth inning (and 91 on his slider once).
BrooksBaseball.net PitchFX Tool: Joba Chamberlain, 8/29/2010
| Pitch Type | Avg Speed | Max Speed | Avg H-Break | Avg V-Break | Count | Strikes / % | Swinging Strikes / % |
| FF (FourSeam Fastball) | 98.1 | 99.6 | -3.85 | 11.87 | 11 | 9 / 81.82% | 0 / 0.00% |
| SL (Slider) | 88.6 | 91.3 | 2.01 | 2.02 | 11 | 7 / 63.64% | 4 / 36.36% |
Fast gun, or is his stuff all the way back?
By winning tonight, the Yankees guaranteed picking up a game on one of Tampa Bay or Boston tonight, unless they can’t get their game in for some reason. I am holding my nose and rooting for Boston tonight.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Sporting News: Pettitte rehab stalls; Yankees lefty still sore
Andy Pettitte’s return to the Yankees has been further delayed. The team said in a statement Tuesday that an MRI exam revealed the left-hander still has “a small persistent strain of the left groin.”
Pettitte reported problems Tuesday after throwing lightly during batting practice. The MRI was scheduled soon afterward.
It’s starting to look more and more likely that a Pettitte return would not happen before mid-September, if at all. As far as what that means, let’s consider the worst case scenario, that Pettitte’s done for the season.
- With 43 games left in the season, we can probably assume each spot in the rotation will get 8-9 more turns.
- Dustin Moseley’s CAIRO projection is to have an RA of about 5.98 over the rest of the season compared to Pettitte’s projected rest of season 3.98. Moseley’s RA may seem high, but the fact of the matter is, he’s never shown himself to be as good as he’s been so far for the Yankees and there’s still not enough data to assume he’s established a new talent level.
- Now obviously, since Moseley’s not as good as Pettitte, we should probably assume he would average something closer to five IP/start than Pettitte’s six IP/start. We can give the ten inning difference to the bullpen.
- So you’re looking at something like 40 IP and 27 runs from Moseley and another 8 IP and 3.5 runs from the bullpen instead of 48 IP and 21 runs in the case of Pettitte
Unfortunately, it’s not that simple. The Yankees are also going to have to deal with:
Phil Hughes’s innings limit
I’m not sure Hughes’s innings limit is a big deal at this point. It’s generally thought to be in the 175 inning range. He’s thrown 134 innings and with 8 starts left, if the Yankees restrict him to 5 IP/start or skip him once he’ll be right there. Of course, we know that if you skip a pitcher’s start it will more than double his ERA over the rest of the season.
Javier Vazquez’s complete collapse
Frankly, this is probably the biggest problem the Yankees faced heading into the stretch run. I wouldn’t even try to project Vazquez at this point, because nothing he did in his career prior to this season tells us anything about him if he doesn’t regain his stuff. Really, I don’t envision a scenario where he suddenly picks up 3 MPH on his fastball after it’s been missing for five months. The Yankees should probably not be favored to win any of the games that he starts, because he’s pretty much replacement level at this point. With Pettitte gone, the Yankees don’t have the option to skip Vazquez a time or two to see if he’s really just dealing with dead arm, or to help him clear his head, or for whatever reason. If they wanted to pull him from the rotation now, it’d mean starting Sergio Mitre and Moseley in 40% of the games left this season. I’m thinking that’s not too exciting, but then again, is Vazquez and Moseley starting 40% of the games left this season any more exciting?
A.J. Burnett’s Jeckyl and Hyde routine.
I will project Burnett rest of the season. He’ll have an RA between 0 and 1,000,000,000 and will average somewhere between 0 inning and 9 innings per start.
Time is still on the Yankees side, and we need to be cognizant of that fact, but right now, this may be the worst version of the 2010 Yankees we’ve seen so far this year. Can the Yankees as currently constituted play as well as Tampa Bay is likely to play over the rest of the season? Probably, but maybe not. And while it’s true that Boston has to outplay them by six games with fewer than 45 games left just to tie them, it’s also true that they can match the Yankees in all non head-to-head matchups and then sweep them in the remaining six head-to-head games to do it.
Should we panic? No.
Should we be concerned? I think so.
If the Yankees were a 96 win team at full strength heading into the season, how good are they now without Pettitte, with Kei Vazquez instead of Javy Vazquez and with several of their key offensive performers having disappointing years?
I think the safe answer is, worse.
But they’re still pretty good, which we should probably try and remember.
Saturday, August 7, 2010
Yankees.com: Sabathia settles in, bats back Yanks’ ace
With Rodriguez shut down due to a left leg contusion suffered from a batting practice line drive, Ramiro Pena stepped into the lineup and drove in two of New York’s runs.
Curtis Granderson also scored a pair of runs as the Yankees got to John Lackey for five runs in six innings, and Sabathia took care of the rest, taking the ball straight to Mariano Rivera for the closer’s 23rd save.
Losing the next two is inevitable, but at least they prevented the sweep.
Red Sox 6, Yankees 3
Discuss.
Friday, August 6, 2010
The Implications of this Four Game Series with Boston
Today begins what seems like it could be the Yankees’ most important series of the season so far. A four game series at home against the Red Sox, which has the potential to make a major impact on both teams’ chances for making the postseason.
At this point, using my Monte Carlo simulator and playing out the rest of the season 10,000 times, I get the following final win totals for the big three in the AL East.
Yankees: 100.4
Tampa Bay: 99.9
Boston: 90.1
Here are the probabilities for winning the AL East.
Yankees: 49.8%
Tampa Bay: 46.1%
Boston: 4.1%
Expanding that to look at the probability of making the postseason including the wild card:
Yankees: 89.9%
Tampa Bay: 89.6%
Boston: 15.9%
So, there are five scenarios we have to consider:
A Boston sweep
Final Projected Win Total
Yankees: 98.5
Tampa Bay: 99.9
Boston: 92.2
Odds of winning AL East
Yankees: 39.0%
Tampa Bay: 55.9%
Boston: 5.0%
Odds of making the postseason
Yankees: 81.7%
Tampa Bay: 87.9%
Boston: 24.8%
A Boston sweep over the Yankees would make it about 10% more likely that Tampa Bay will win the East, and would lower the Yankees’ odds of making the postseason by about 9%.
Boston winning three of four
Final Projected Win Total
Yankees: 98.7
Tampa Bay: 99.9
Boston: 91.8
Odds of winning AL East
Yankees: 39.8%
Tampa Bay: 54.6%
Boston: 5.5%
Odds of making the postseason
Yankees: 82.6%
Tampa Bay: 88.6%
Boston: 23.7%
I’d be very disappointed if the Yankees lost three of these four games.
A series split
Final Projected Win Total
Yankees: 99.7
Tampa Bay: 99.8
Boston: 91.0
Odds of winning AL East
Yankees: 47.4%
Tampa Bay: 48.1%
Boston: 4.4%
Odds of making the postseason
Yankees: 87.3%
Tampa Bay: 88.9%
Boston: 19.2%
Gun to my head, with Dustin Moseley AND A.J. Burnett pitching in this series, this is the outcome I’d probably bet on to happen, although I wouldn’t really like it. Should it come to pass, the Yankees chances of winning the East and making the postseason would dip slightly from where they sit right now, and Boston would pretty much be reduced to trying to get the wild card.
Yankees winning three of four
Final Projected Win Total
Yankees: 100.6
Tampa Bay: 100.1
Boston: 90.3
Odds of winning AL East
Yankees: 50.8%
Tampa Bay: 47.1%
Boston: 2.1%
Odds of making the postseason
Yankees: 91.6%
Tampa Bay: 90.1%
Boston: 13.9%
I find this scenario acceptable.
A Yankees sweep
Final Projected Win Total
Yankees: 101.3
Tampa Bay: 100.3
Boston: 89.2
Odds of winning AL East
Yankees: 55.4%
Tampa Bay: 43.5%
Boston: 1.0%
Odds of making the postseason
Yankees: 94.3%
Tampa Bay: 91.8%
Boston: 8.8%
This is my preferred outcome.
Frankly, the clock’s running out on Boston. Even if they take all four of these games, they still have to defy long odds to make the playoffs, and they’ll have to do it while missing the guy who’s probably their single most valuable player for the rest of the season. Also, in this series they are missing Dustin Pedroia, who’s a very good player in his own right, even if I can’t stand looking at him.
How much have injuries hurt Boston’s lineup? Here’s how what looked like their primary lineup entering the season would project going forward.
| Ord | Player | Pos | PA | OBP | wOBA | Outs | BR | BRAA |
| 1 | Jacoby Ellsbury | LF | 5.0 | .338 | .344 | 3.3 | 0.61 | 0.05 |
| 2 | Dustin Pedroia | 2B | 5.0 | .366 | .371 | 3.2 | 0.73 | 0.17 |
| 3 | Victor Martinez | C | 4.8 | .364 | .366 | 3.1 | 0.68 | 0.14 |
| 4 | Kevin Youkilis | 1B | 4.0 | .394 | .398 | 2.4 | 0.68 | 0.23 |
| 5 | David Ortiz | DH | 4.0 | .368 | .381 | 2.5 | 0.62 | 0.17 |
| 6 | Adrian Beltre | 3B | 4.0 | .332 | .353 | 2.7 | 0.52 | 0.07 |
| 7 | J.D. Drew | 3B | 4.0 | .370 | .366 | 2.5 | 0.57 | 0.12 |
| 8 | Mike Cameron | CF | 4.0 | .329 | .334 | 2.7 | 0.46 | 0.01 |
| 9 | Marco Scutaro | SS | 4.0 | .343 | .329 | 2.6 | 0.44 | -0.01 |
| Total | 38.8 | .356 | .360 | 25.0 | 5.30 | 0.96 |
Compare that to the lineup they ran out against Cleveland yesterday.
| Ord | Player | Pos | PA | OBP | wOBA | Outs | BR | BRAA |
| 1 | Jacoby Ellsbury | CF | 5.0 | .338 | .344 | 3.3 | 0.61 | 0.05 |
| 2 | Marco Scutaro | SS | 4.9 | .343 | .329 | 3.2 | 0.54 | -0.01 |
| 3 | David Ortiz | DH | 4.0 | .368 | .381 | 2.5 | 0.62 | 0.17 |
| 4 | Victor Martinez | C | 4.0 | .364 | .366 | 2.5 | 0.57 | 0.12 |
| 5 | J.D. Drew | RF | 4.0 | .370 | .366 | 2.5 | 0.57 | 0.12 |
| 6 | Adrian Beltre | 3B | 4.0 | .332 | .353 | 2.7 | 0.52 | 0.07 |
| 7 | Mike Lowell | 1B | 4.0 | .330 | .338 | 2.7 | 0.47 | 0.02 |
| 8 | Ryan Kalish | LF | 4.0 | .316 | .313 | 2.7 | 0.38 | -0.07 |
| 9 | Bill Hall | 2B | 4.0 | .297 | .311 | 2.8 | 0.38 | -0.07 |
| Total | 37.9 | .340 | .344 | 25.0 | 4.64 | 0.40 |
The Yankees really should win three out of four here.
So really, this series isn’t all that important, although it would be fun for schadenfreude purposes to watch the Yankees bury Boston’s playoff hopes decisively by taking three or four of these games.
Monday, August 2, 2010
FanNation.com: Lowell to the Yanks?
Mike Lowell came at least within a conversation of wearing pinstripes. The Red Sox were not going to trade Lowell directly to the Yankees, sources said. The deal would have involved the Rangers, who would have acquired Lowell and sent him to the Yankees with the Red Sox’s knowledge.
That makes no sense, so it’s probably bogus. But feel free to use this as an extended complaint thread.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Yankees.com: Without homering, A-Rod helps fuel rout
CLEVELAND—Alex Rodriguez may not have delivered the milestone home run the Yankees have been waiting for, but their offense swung the bats plenty in posting an 8-0 pounding of the Indians on Wednesday at Progressive Field.
New York battered Cleveland starter Fausto Carmona early and often, chasing the right-hander after just 2 2/3 innings to the tune of 10 hits and seven earned runs to improve to 28 games over .500 at 64-36, matching their season high.
Don’t get too excited about this win, or any other recent win, for that matter. Because the tide is about to turn on the Yankees as they’ll eventually have to face a red hot Red Sox team and oppressive heat in Kansas City.
Sunday, July 18, 2010
NY Times: Pettitte Exits, but Yankees Beat Rays
Compared with the injury to the Yankees’ starting pitcher on Saturday, Sunday’s mishap was merely mundane. Unlike A. J. Burnett, who cut the palms of his hands when angrily slamming them into a clubhouse door Saturday, Andy Pettitte was merely throwing a pitch when he strained his left groin muscle Sunday.
But while Burnett’s injury probably will not force him to miss a start, Pettitte’s injury could force him onto the disabled list.
Why couldn’t Burnett have strained his groin and Pettitte cut his palms?
Pettitte’s been the Yankees’ best starter this year, so this hurts. It sounds like he could miss up to five weeks, which is not cool. As for who fills his spot, it’ll probably be Dustin Moseley or Sergio Mitre, neither of which excites me much. Until we know how much time Pettitte’s likely to miss, it’s tough to really assess the impact.
Pettitte’s injury put a damper on a solid win. The Yankees were down 3-0 after only ten pitches and with AL All Star Game starter David Price on the mound for Tampa Bay. Luckily for us, the Yankees have Robinson Cano, who put them right back into the game with a two-out, two-run triple in the bottom of the first to cut the deficit to 3-2. The beleaguered Yankee bullpen was able to finish the game after Pettitte left, allowing two runs over the last six innings while their teammates scored seven more. I was happy to see Joe Girardi go right to David Robertson when Pettitte had to leave with two on and a 3-1 count on Kelly Shoppach. At this point, Robertson is probably the best non-Mo reliever in the bullpen (I really don’t give a crap what Joba’s FIP is), and the game had the potential to get ugly right there. I’ll also throw CHP a bone and thank him for a good inning. That makes two good games in his Yankee career I think.
This is a series we have to be happy with, as the Yankees took two of three from their chief AL East rival and opened up a three game lead in the division. In doing so while Boston lost three of four at home against Texas, the Yankees also have managed to pick up a seven game lead on the Red Sox in the loss column. In order for Boston to catch the Yankees now, they have to be seven games better over less than half a season. With eleventy billion aces, that’s certainly plausible, but it’s also somewhat unlikely.
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Monte Carlo Wins and Postseason Odds Report Through Games of July 7, 2010
I just realized I haven’t run my Monte Carlo simulations for wins and postseason odds since May 25, so here’s an update through yesterday’s games.
When these were last run, the Yankees were on pace for around 97 wins and they had about a 70.2% chance at making the postseason. Their probability of taking the AL East was around 33.5%, trailing Tampa Bay who were at 51.9%. Boston was at around 36.4% for making the postseason and 14.1% to take the AL East.
For the going forward projections, I’m using 60% 2010 Pythagenpat and 40% 2010 pre-season projections. Team performance over the rest of the season then gets added to actual 2010 W/L to estimate each team’s projected final win total and postseason odds.
| Team | pW | opW | pW+/- |
| Padres | 91.6 | 75.9 | 15.7 |
| Mets | 88.4 | 76.1 | 12.3 |
| Blue Jays | 76.3 | 65.1 | 11.2 |
| Reds | 91.0 | 80.6 | 10.4 |
| Rangers | 94.3 | 84.4 | 9.9 |
| Tigers | 85.1 | 77.9 | 7.2 |
| Rays | 98.3 | 91.2 | 7.1 |
| White Sox | 85.3 | 79.8 | 5.5 |
| Braves | 93.4 | 88.3 | 5.1 |
| Twins | 88.0 | 83.1 | 4.9 |
| Yankees | 100.5 | 96.1 | 4.4 |
| Angels | 82.3 | 78.0 | 4.3 |
| Giants | 85.2 | 81.1 | 4.1 |
| Rockies | 87.5 | 83.8 | 3.7 |
| Royals | 74.3 | 71.5 | 2.8 |
| Red Sox | 92.9 | 92.9 | 0.0 |
| Marlins | 79.9 | 80.0 | -0.1 |
| Dodgers | 86.2 | 86.3 | -0.1 |
| Cardinals | 90.3 | 90.6 | -0.3 |
| Athletics | 77.3 | 79.2 | -1.9 |
| Nationals | 72.6 | 74.8 | -2.2 |
| Phillies | 86.3 | 89.7 | -3.4 |
| Astros | 64.5 | 68.8 | -4.3 |
| Brewers | 74.4 | 81.6 | -7.2 |
| Cubs | 74.5 | 83.1 | -8.6 |
| Indians | 67.0 | 79.9 | -12.9 |
| Mariners | 67.9 | 81.4 | -13.5 |
| Pirates | 57.2 | 72.3 | -15.1 |
| Diamondbacks | 65.0 | 82.2 | -17.2 |
| Orioles | 52.6 | 74.6 | -22.0 |
pW: Updated projected wins as of July 7
opW: Original pre-season projected wins
pW+/-:pW - opW
This table shows how many wins every team is now projected to end the season with, sorted in descending order of improvement compared to the preseason.
Break up the Padres!
I think I like these probabilities better than the last ones.
| Team | ppo% | opo% | po%+/- |
| Rangers | 86.3% | 38.9% | 47.4% |
| Padres | 57.6% | 13.2% | 44.4% |
| Reds | 62.5% | 21.3% | 41.2% |
| Rays | 75.4% | 46.1% | 29.3% |
| Braves | 68.3% | 42.9% | 25.4% |
| Mets | 37.5% | 13.0% | 24.5% |
| Yankees | 83.0% | 63.0% | 20.0% |
| Twins | 44.6% | 34.8% | 9.8% |
| Tigers | 25.9% | 19.9% | 6.0% |
| Cardinals | 56.3% | 50.9% | 5.4% |
| White Sox | 29.3% | 24.8% | 4.5% |
| Rockies | 31.9% | 30.3% | 1.6% |
| Blue Jays | 0.6% | 1.9% | -1.3% |
| Giants | 21.8% | 23.3% | -1.5% |
| Astros | 0.0% | 4.4% | -4.4% |
| Royals | 2.6% | 9.3% | -6.7% |
| Pirates | 0.0% | 7.6% | -7.6% |
| Orioles | 0.0% | 8.3% | -8.3% |
| Angels | 12.2% | 21.6% | -9.4% |
| Dodgers | 28.0% | 38.5% | -10.5% |
| Nationals | 0.6% | 11.1% | -10.5% |
| Marlins | 6.1% | 19.3% | -13.2% |
| Red Sox | 37.0% | 53.0% | -16.0% |
| Athletics | 2.7% | 23.8% | -21.1% |
| Phillies | 26.3% | 48.0% | -21.7% |
| Brewers | 1.4% | 23.5% | -22.1% |
| Indians | 0.2% | 25.4% | -25.2% |
| Cubs | 1.8% | 27.2% | -25.5% |
| Diamondbacks | 0.1% | 25.6% | -25.6% |
| Mariners | 0.2% | 29.4% | -29.2% |
ppo%: Re-projected probability of making playoffs
opo%: Original projected probability of making the playoffs
po%+/-:ppo% - opo% (increase or decrease in playoff probability)
This table compares every team’s current probability of making the postseason with their pre-season projections, sorted in descending order of increase in probability.
Hard to believe that a team as awful as the Yankees are now at 83.0% to make the postseason, but that’s almost certainly due to me rigging these numbers to make the Yankees look better than they are.
FWIW, revised AL East odds are now:
WOE: 51.5%
Rays: 36.4%
16 Aces + best defense evah: 12.0%
Monday, June 28, 2010
Inter-league Play’s Impact on the AL East Race
I don’t recall if I’ve ever mentioned my thoughts on interleague play, but I’ll just say I’m not a fan and leave it at that.
Most of the reasons I hate it are aesthetic, but one of the chief issues I have with with it is that it can create a slightly different playing field for teams that are competing for the same thing. I don’t think that impact is huge, but it doesn’t have to be huge to make a difference.
So I figured with the exhibitions games over, I’d see how the interleague play schedule and results may have impacted the AL East. With all due respect to Toronto, I don’t think they’re going to be in the mix all year so I’m just looking at the big three.
So what I did was calculate the log5 win expectations for each team’s interleague schedule. I’m using 2010 Pythagenpat records with a .04 home field advantage. This is then compared to the actual wins for each team, and here’s how it looks.
| Boston | xW | aW | Yankees | xW | aW | Tampa Bay | xW | aW |
| @PHI | .48 | 0 | @NYM | .51 | 1 | @HOU | .73 | 0 |
| @PHI | .48 | 1 | @NYM | .51 | 0 | @HOU | .73 | 1 |
| @PHI | .48 | 1 | @NYM | .51 | 0 | @HOU | .73 | 1 |
| PHI | .54 | 1 | HOU | .83 | 1 | FLA | .58 | 0 |
| PHI | .54 | 1 | HOU | .83 | 1 | FLA | .58 | 1 |
| PHI | .54 | 0 | HOU | .83 | 1 | FLA | .58 | 0 |
| ARI | .70 | 1 | PHI | .58 | 1 | @ATL | .47 | 1 |
| ARI | .70 | 1 | PHI | .58 | 0 | @ATL | .47 | 0 |
| ARI | .70 | 1 | PHI | .58 | 0 | @ATL | .47 | 0 |
| LAD | .60 | 1 | NYM | .57 | 0 | @FLA | .52 | 0 |
| LAD | .60 | 1 | NYM | .57 | 1 | @FLA | .52 | 1 |
| LAD | .60 | 1 | NYM | .57 | 1 | @FLA | .52 | 0 |
| @COL | .49 | 0 | @ARI | .68 | 0 | SDP | .50 | 0 |
| @COL | .49 | 0 | @ARI | .68 | 1 | SDP | .50 | 0 |
| @COL | .49 | 1 | @ARI | .68 | 1 | SDP | .50 | 1 |
| @SFG | .47 | 0 | @LAD | .58 | 1 | ARI | .70 | 0 |
| @SFG | .47 | 1 | @LAD | .58 | 0 | ARI | .70 | 1 |
| @SFG | .47 | 1 | @LAD | .58 | 1 | ARI | .70 | 0 |
| Total | 9.5 | 13 | 8.9 | 11 | 8.9 | 7 | ||
| Diff | 3.5 | 2.1 | -1.9 |
xW: Expected wins using Bill James’s log5 methodology
aW: Actual wins
Diff: aW - xW
Now, I haven’t adjusted this for pitching matchups and I have not incorporated any projection data, so there’s probably some margin of error in here.
As you can see here, Boston’s benefitted the most from interleague play, but the Yankees also did better than expected. Tampa Bay is the team that was hurt the most.
Monday, May 17, 2010
Yankees.com: In short set, Hughes, CC pack quite a punch
Phil Hughes and CC Sabathia have the nods for New York in a two-game series set to open on Monday, and while Sabathia’s $161 million contract and big-game resume have earned him trusted stature, Hughes has impressed almost everyone after winning the fifth-starter’s job coming out of camp.
“I can’t really tell you exactly why it’s been going so well, but I’m just trying to throw strikes and attack the strike zone,” Hughes said. “I know we have a good offense, so I just have to do my job and I know they’ll score runs.”
Hughes comes into the Boston series wielding a sparkling 5-0 record and a 1.38 ERA. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, he has become the first Yankees pitcher with five wins and a sub-1.50 ERA through six starts since 1958, when “Bullet” Bob Turley went 6-0 with an 0.83 ERA on his way to a Cy Young Award.
It sucks that last night’s game was canceled after the bottom of the seventh inning. What’s even worse is having to play the next two games against the best starting pitching and defensive team in the majors.
Sunday, April 18, 2010
What Does What’s Happened So Far in 2010 Tell Us? (Re-visited)
With another Yankee win and Red Sox loss in the books, I figured I’d run another set of Monte Carlo simulations using the same methodology as in this post.
| Team | pW | opW | pW+/- |
| Twins | 87.4 | 83.1 | 4.3 |
| Athletics | 83.4 | 79.2 | 4.2 |
| Rays | 95.3 | 91.2 | 4.1 |
| Giants | 84.9 | 81.1 | 3.8 |
| Phillies | 93.1 | 89.7 | 3.4 |
| Yankees | 99.5 | 96.1 | 3.4 |
| Cardinals | 92.3 | 90.6 | 1.7 |
| Blue Jays | 66.3 | 65.1 | 1.2 |
| Pirates | 73.1 | 72.3 | 0.8 |
| Tigers | 78.6 | 77.9 | 0.7 |
| Rockies | 84.5 | 83.8 | 0.7 |
| Braves | 88.8 | 88.3 | 0.5 |
| Marlins | 80.5 | 80.0 | 0.5 |
| Padres | 76.3 | 75.9 | 0.4 |
| Mets | 76.1 | 76.1 | 0.0 |
| Indians | 79.5 | 79.9 | -0.4 |
| Mariners | 80.9 | 81.4 | -0.5 |
| Dodgers | 85.7 | 86.3 | -0.6 |
| Nationals | 74.1 | 74.8 | -0.7 |
| Royals | 70.8 | 71.5 | -0.7 |
| Cubs | 82.3 | 83.1 | -0.8 |
| Rangers | 83.5 | 84.4 | -0.9 |
| Diamondbacks | 81.1 | 82.2 | -1.1 |
| Reds | 78.7 | 80.6 | -1.9 |
| Angels | 76.0 | 78.0 | -2.0 |
| Brewers | 79.5 | 81.6 | -2.1 |
| White Sox | 76.7 | 79.8 | -3.1 |
| Red Sox | 88.8 | 92.9 | -4.1 |
| Astros | 64.2 | 68.8 | -4.6 |
| Orioles | 68.3 | 74.6 | -6.3 |
pW: Re-projected wins
opW: Original projected wins
pW+/-:pW - opW
| Team | ppo% | opo% | po%+/- |
| Rays | 60.4% | 46.1% | 14.3% |
| Twins | 47.9% | 34.8% | 13.1% |
| Phillies | 59.4% | 48.0% | 11.4% |
| Yankees | 73.9% | 63.0% | 10.9% |
| Athletics | 34.4% | 23.8% | 10.6% |
| Giants | 32.5% | 23.3% | 9.2% |
| Cardinals | 59.9% | 50.9% | 9.0% |
| Braves | 44.1% | 42.9% | 1.2% |
| Rockies | 31.2% | 30.3% | 0.9% |
| Tigers | 20.1% | 19.9% | 0.2% |
| Pirates | 7.5% | 7.6% | -0.1% |
| Blue Jays | 1.6% | 1.9% | -0.3% |
| Marlins | 18.6% | 19.3% | -0.7% |
| Padres | 11.3% | 13.2% | -1.9% |
| Mariners | 27.1% | 29.4% | -2.3% |
| Royals | 7.0% | 9.3% | -2.3% |
| Cubs | 24.5% | 27.2% | -2.7% |
| Mets | 10.1% | 13.0% | -2.9% |
| Astros | 1.4% | 4.4% | -3.0% |
| Dodgers | 35.3% | 38.5% | -3.2% |
| Nationals | 7.8% | 11.1% | -3.3% |
| Rangers | 35.5% | 38.9% | -3.4% |
| Indians | 21.8% | 25.4% | -3.6% |
| Diamondbacks | 21.5% | 25.6% | -4.1% |
| Reds | 16.5% | 21.3% | -4.8% |
| Brewers | 18.3% | 23.5% | -5.2% |
| Orioles | 2.3% | 8.3% | -6.0% |
| Angels | 15.3% | 21.6% | -6.3% |
| White Sox | 15.8% | 24.8% | -9.0% |
| Red Sox | 36.9% | 53.0% | -16.1% |
ppo%: Re-projected probability of making playoffs
opo%: Original projected probability of making the playoffs
po%+/-:ppo% - opo% (increase or decrease in playoff probability)
By winning two more games than they should have against Boston in Fenway, the Rays have jumped past the Twins as the team who’s improved their playoff probabilites the most. Boston loses a few more percentage points, because they should have taken two of three from Tampa Bay at home, instead of losing all three.
Like the Rays, the Yankees picked up another few percentage points on their playoff chances as well. We’ll have to see if they can sustain this pace with the dreaded West Coast trip coming up. I’ll put up an updated log5 look at the West Coast swing later on Monday.
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