Monday, May 7, 2012
David Robertson’s Heat Maps
Although there really isn’t a lot of data on Robertson to this point in the season, I do think his pitch location is worth noting. He seems to be nailing that outside edge vs. LHB consistently.
However, it’s right handed batters that are really coming up empty against Robertson this year; he’s faced 21 RHB and struck out 11 of them.
David Robertson vs. RHB
| P | PA | AVG | OBP | SLUG | wOBA | BABIP | K% | BB% | HR% | HR/FB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 Season | 464 | 108 | .237 | .343 | .409 | .334 | .345 | 30.6% | 13.0% | 2.2% | 7.7% |
| 2010 Season | 661 | 155 | .250 | .329 | .364 | .302 | .316 | 23.9% | 9.7% | 2.3% | 8.3% |
| 2011 Season | 612 | 130 | .186 | .292 | .257 | .257 | .286 | 32.3% | 12.3% | 0.9% | 3.3% |
| 2012 Season | 93 | 21 | .105 | .190 | .158 | .170 | .250 | 52.4% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Robertson has thrown 106 cutters this season, recording nine strike outs and yielding five hits in 22 plate appearances. Batters are chasing the pitch out of the strike zone at a rate of 26.7%. Last season, his chase% on cutters was 19.3%.
Similarly, his fastball is getting batters to chase 31.4% compared to 20.3% between 2008 and 2011. Robertson has recorded eight strike outs on his fastball this season while giving up two hits in fifteen plate appearances. He’s actually relying on his cutter more as he’s thrown only 74 fastballs to this point. His cutter and fastball come in at roughly the same velocity (92.7 MPH and 93.0 MPH respectively since 2011). Batters might be finding it difficult to identify between the two pitches, resulting in his fairly high strike out rate to this point. I remember Russell Martin mentioning last season that Robertson’s cutter explodes at the end, much like Mo’s.
Robertson only started throwing the cutter last season; I can’t help wondering what part Mariano may have played in helping him develop the pitch.
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Player A vs. Player B
Thursday, October 6, 2011
Regular Season vs. Postseason
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REG | .267 | .368 | .486 | .368 |
| Postseason | .156 | .257 | .333 | .262 |
Saturday, August 27, 2011
A.J. Not Staying Low
A few days ago, we looked at A.J. Burnett's numbers broken down by zone. He does much better, as most pitchers do, when keeping it down in the zone. In fact, this season he has the best overall opposing batting average and slugging percentage on pitches low in the zone.
His pitch location from yesterday was mostly middle and up:
Of the 116 pitches that A.J. Burnett threw last night, just 15 were located in the lower part of the zone. Not surprisingly, three of his five strikeouts came on pitches down in the zone, and he gave up just one hit in seven plate appearances decided on a low pitch. And basically everything up was hammered:
If only Irene could have come a day earlier....
All heat maps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Breaking Burnett Down by Zone Location
So now A.J. Burnett may really lose his spot in the Yankees rotation. I wanted to see if there was anything he's done this season that may provide hope that he could bounce back. When I broke down the zone location to up, middle and down, I found something pretty interesting.
First, the bad:
Basically the middle of the strike zone includes any pitch that hits the middle seven inches of the zone (which is normalized depending on the height of the batter). So anything above the top of that seven inch mark (whether inside or outside the actual strike zone) is designated as 'up'. The same applies for pitches down in the zone which you will see further down in the post.
This season, A.J. ranks in the bottom 21% of the league in opposing batting average (.271) on pitches up (min. 500 pitches thrown in that zone). The league average is .240. His opponent slugging percentage of .474 ranks in the bottom 11% of the league and is nearly 100 points worse than the league average. Sadly, this is actually an improvement over last season when he ranked in the bottom 5 and 3 percent of the league in opponent average (.318) and slugging (.588) respectively.
When throwing over the middle of the zone, Burnett has not only been flat out terrible, he's basically been the worst pitcher in the league. He ranks second to last in opponent batting average (.379), and dead last in opponent slugging percentage (.707), opponent wOBA (.452), and HR/FB (23.3%).
Yet, here's how he's done on pitches down in the zone:
As bad as A.J. Burnett has been throwing middle and up, he's been that awesome on pitches down. Batters are hitting just .117 against him in 259 plate appearances decided on a low pitch (1162 total pitches), which is the best in baseball this season. Opponents are also slugging just .157 on low pitches, which also leads the league.
Most of this success on low pitches is probably due to his knuckle curve, which has been by far his best pitch this season (and has accounted for 50.9% of his low pitches). Opponents have a .188 wOBA versus his curve this season compared to a .407 wOBA against all of his other pitches. Burnett obviously can't rely on just one pitch, and we're seeing that quite clearly this season. The decline of his fastball is probably the biggest culprit here, as hitters are putting up a .439 wOBA against it, ranking him in the bottom 1% of the league (Only Edinson Volquez and Kyle Davies have been worse with their fastballs). That number has been increasing every year since PitchFX data began keeping track (2008: .364, 2009: .385, 2010: .403).
His stuff is simply getting worse. Maybe moving him to the bullpen will help him regain something, but is it best for a Yankees pen that has been exceptionally good this year?
All heat maps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Phil Hughes’ Pitch Location
Friday, July 1, 2011
Star-Ledger: Derek Jeter to play in Trenton this weekend before returning to Yankees
NEW YORK — Derek Jeter will play in two rehab games in Trenton this weekend before rejoining the Yankees on Monday in Cleveland in his run for 3,000 hits.
“I feel good now,” Jeter told reporters after working out at the Yankees’ minor-league complex in Tampa, Fla. “I’m ready to get out of here.”
Eduardo Nunez will have three more games to showcase his fielding skills.
Also, here’s a quick look at how Swisher has turned it around in the last month (below the break):
Most of Swisher's success has come off the hard stuff. All 7 of his left-handed home runs have been off fastballs, as have 5 of his 9 doubles.
I also just wanted to let you all know that I'll be covering the first game of the subway series for Stats Inc., and I hope to be able to update the site with anything interesting. I also plan on taking in the second game as well, because I just love interleague play so much....
Monday, June 27, 2011
Logan’s Location
As SG mentioned in the game recap from yesterday, Boone Logan has been good against lefties lately, after struggling earlier in the season. Through his first 14 appearances, he gave up 9 hits to lefties in 29 plate appearances, including two doubles and one home run. However, he's turned things around as of late, yielding just 4 hits to left-handed batters in his last 26 faced. Location seems to be a big part of his turnaround.
The big difference has been Logan's ability to throw outside to lefties. Earlier in the season, you can see that he was leaving the ball over the heart of the plate. But since May 15th, he's been able to keep the ball away, and the results have been much improved.
| P | PA | AVG | BABIP | K% | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 14 Games | 106 | 29 | .360 | .364 | 6.9% | .413 |
| Last 14 Games | 107 | 26 | .269 | .286 | 34.6% | .236 |
Logan has struck out 11 lefty batters this season, 9 of which have come since mid-May. Since tightening up his location, Lefties have been swinging and missing more against him. Prior to May 15th, opposing LHB were making contact on 81.4% of their swings against Logan. But in the past 6 weeks, that number has dropped to 70.2%.
Opposing batters are also chasing more of Logan's pitches out of the zone (25.6% to 31.3%). This is one of the many benefits that come with locating on the edges. Batters are forced to swing more at those questionable pitches outside so as to avoid getting caught looking.
So if Damaso Marte and Pedro Feliciano just play catch for the rest of the season, Logan's effectiveness could be all the more crucial; especially if the Yankees plan on winning more than one game against the lefty heavy Boston Red Sox this season.
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Worst Low Ball Hitters
Any pitch that located below a line 6 inches above the bottom of the PitchFX strike zone is included, even if it was outside of the actual strike zone.
Since 2009, Russell Martin has a .146 batting average in 263 plate appearances decided on a low pitch, 8th worst in baseball. At least he should know where pitchers will throw him at this point.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Heat Map: Bartolo Colon vs. Baltimore Orioles (5/18/11)
Bartolo Colon threw 87 pitches yesterday, and while he didn't get the win, he held the Orioles to 3 hits over 8 innings. He threw mostly fastballs (90.8%), a few sliders, and one changeup according to PitchFX data. His fastball averaged a -5.8 BrkX (horizontal movement from spin) reading and 8.5 BrkZ (vertical movement from spin) reading, both slightly better than league average. He yielded 10 ground balls, 5 line drives, and 4 fly balls, while striking out 7. And as you can see, he located his pitches extremely well, avoiding the middle of the plate while jamming lefties up and in. He also threw to the outside edge of the plate to righties and lefties, recording 5 of his strikeouts on pitches away, 4 of them looking.
All heat maps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
A-Rod’s Zones
| Up | Middle | Down | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-2010 | .415 | .424 | .348 |
| 2011 | .819 | .460 | .312 |
All heatmaps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Monday, April 18, 2011
Derek Jeter: Hit Type Data
| % | AVG | BABIP | SLG | HR% | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line Drive | 10.0% | .250 | .200 | .250 | 0.0% | .180 |
| Fly Ball | 10.0% | .200 | .200 | .200 | 0.0% | .180 |
| Ground Ball | 76.0% | .289 | .289 | .316 | 0.0% | .269 |
| Pop Up | 2.0% | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0.0% | .000 |
| Total In Play | 100.0% | .265 | .260 | .286 | 0.0% | .241 |
| Total | 100.0% | .241 | .260 | .259 | 0.0% | .268 |
Although it's only been 61 plate appearances into 2011, Derek Jeter seems to be picking up where he left off last season. His ground ball tendencies seem to be intensifying and even when he does get under a ball, he doesn't get much distance on it. In case you happened to notice, bunt data is not included in the chart which is why the percentages don't add up to 100.
Since Jeter's major hitting woes appeared to begin in 2010, here's his combined 2010 and 2011 hit type data, followed by his prior two seasons.
| % | AVG | BABIP | SLG | HR% | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line Drive | 15.9% | .660 | .640 | .920 | 2.0% | .669 |
| Fly Ball | 16.2% | .294 | .229 | .686 | 7.8% | .392 |
| Ground Ball | 65.5% | .245 | .245 | .260 | 0.0% | .226 |
| Pop Up | 1.2% | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0.0% | .000 |
| Total In Play | 100.0% | .318 | .305 | .431 | 1.6% | .322 |
| Total | 100.0% | .267 | .305 | .362 | 1.3% | .314 |
| % | AVG | BABIP | SLG | HR% | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line Drive | 19.8% | .756 | .747 | .977 | 2.3% | .753 |
| Fly Ball | 20.3% | .308 | .209 | .790 | 12.1% | .437 |
| Ground Ball | 57.0% | .267 | .267 | .273 | 0.0% | .242 |
| Pop Up | 1.5% | .059 | .059 | .059 | 0.0% | .053 |
| Total In Play | 100.0% | .373 | .352 | .518 | 2.9% | .380 |
| Total | 100.0% | .319 | .352 | .444 | 2.5% | .366 |
Watching Jeter hit has been pretty frustrating over the last year. The ground ball tendencies wouldn't be so annoying if he was making better contact overall. The drop in average on his line drives has been a big problem for Jeter. Since he's not really a home run hitter, he relies more on liners to prop up his average and power numbers. Jeter's .640 BAbip on line drives since the start of the 2010 season puts him in the bottom 8% of all major league hitters. I'd love to say that he's hit a rough patch of luck, but it's just not the case.
I posted Jeter's contact graphics a few months ago but I figure they're worth revisiting. The one area he tends to hit the ball well is also the area he has been making less contact. If Jeter is experiencing an overall drop in bat speed, it would explain why he's making less contact in his power zone, as well as why his ground ball and line drive averages are down. The balls he puts in play would not be hit as hard, making it a lot easier for opposing defenses to field and convert them into outs. I'm not saying this is the case, (I don't have access to hit velocity data) but it would certainly explain a lot.
All heatmaps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Phil Hughes Through Two Starts
Yes, Phil Hughes' fastball velocity is down. We get it. Is that his only problem? Probably not, but it sure makes it harder for him to be successful with his other pitches.
Some readers have commented on his location issues. I haven't really noticed Hughes sitting in the middle of the zone in his last two starts, but let's take a look at how he's locating compared to the last three seasons.
The major difference so far has been Hughes' attempt to come in on lefties. The main reason for this is that he's been relying on his cutter more over his first two starts, while shying away from his velocity-challenged fastball.
| FB% | CHNG% | CURV% | SLD% | CUT% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-10 | 63.5% | 4.4% | 20.5% | 1.3% | 10.2% |
| 2011 | 11.9% | 6.0% | 13.4% | 0.0% | 68.7% |
| FB% | CHNG% | CURV% | SLD% | CUT% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-10 | 61.5% | 0.1% | 17.0% | 3.2% | 18.1% |
| 2011 | 12.9% | 1.4% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 65.7% |
Having to rely more on his cutter has not produced positive results for Hughes. Batters are hitting .412 off it, compared to .290 in his three previous seasons; he's only induced a handful of swings and misses on the pitch as well. In his three previous seasons, Hughes was able to get opposing righties to chase his cutter out of the zone 38.4 percent of the time. So far this season, he's produced just 2 total swings on 21 cutters out of the zone to RHB. This could be a sign that his location is somewhat iffy. But it could also be a side effect of the ineffectiveness of his fastball. With batters seeing the cutter more, it's likely easier for them to lay off the pitch when it's thrown to the outside edge of the plate. And the reduced velocity on his fastball means batters have more time to identify the pitch, differentiating it from the cutter.
| P | PA | K% | BB% | Miss% | Strk% | Foul% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-10 | 2806 | 666 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 18.2% | 62.7% | 46.6% |
| 2011 | 67 | 17 | 0.0% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 70.1% | 48.5% |
| P | PA | K% | BB% | Miss% | Strk% | Foul% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-10 | 2700 | 676 | 22.0% | 5.5% | 21.5% | 67.6% | 46.2% |
| 2011 | 70 | 16 | 6.3% | 18.8% | 6.7% | 55.7% | 53.3% |
With only two starts under his belt, you can't really get too bent out of shape about any of these numbers, although they don't inspire much confidence going forward. His swing and miss rate is pretty awful even for the limited sample. Basically, opposing batters are making contact on 95 percent of their swings against Hughes. He's obviously not going to be racking up the Ks at that rate.
On the plus side, with all that extra contact, Hughes' walk rate is down nearly 50% against lefties.
All heatmaps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Friday, April 1, 2011
CC’s Slider (3/31/11)
Sabathia didn't have his best slider in the Yankees' opener yesterday. His location was off as it hung up in the zone quite a bit. Over the last three seasons, batters have made contact on his slider 56.1 percent of the time. On 24 sliders yesterday afternoon, the Tigers made contact on 77.8 percent of their swings (of a whopping total of 9), primarily on pitches in the strike zone. Obviously, it's only one game's worth of data, but it was clear he wasn't able to keep the pitch down like he normally does.
BrkX and BrkZ values provided by PitchFX measure the number of inches the ball moves horizontally and vertically as a result of the spin on the ball read from when it is 40 ft from home plate. Sabathia traditionally gets about 5.1 inches of BrkX (horizontal) movement on his slider. Yesterday it averaged 2.8 inches. From 2008-2010, PitchFX data has Sabathia throwing 2060 sliders in regular and postseason games combined. Only 450 of those sliders have had a BrkX reading less than 3.0.
Again, one game's worth of data is not enough to draw any significant conclusions on one pitch. Besides, it was cold, and the man is still in Captain Crunch withdrawal. If he's still hanging his slider up in the zone in a couple weeks, then I'd be worried.
All heatmaps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Granderson: Before and After Long
SG's Looking Ahead piece on Curtis Granderson had me scrambling to the heat maps. Make of this what you will.
I also noticed that Granderson was producing better results on pitches up in the zone. If we isolate pitches thrown to the top 5 inches of the average strike zone and higher, Granderson's slugging percentage went from .403 to .816. His swing rate, as well as miss rate, didn't really change at all. We're only dealing with 365 and 288 pitches in this specific zone over the two time periods respectively, however, so you can't read too much into his results. Although I will say that a change in his expected OBP might indicate a better approach. Before August 10th, Granderson had an exp-OBP of .363 with a 17.2% exp-BB% on pitches up. From the 10th on: .421 exp-OBP, 20.8% exp-BB%.
All heatmaps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Update:Granderson's pitch frequency, as requested by Ivy:
Update 2: Granderson's 2008-09 ISO as requested by (not the real) jerry seinfeld:
Looks like the previous two years are more in line with his performance after August 9th. That could be a sign that something in his swing changed in 2009 before he worked with Long. Perhaps the injury early on altered something in his mechanics that negatively effected his approach. According to the article SG linked too, Long did help shorten Granderson's swing which supposedly helps in catching up to fastballs more. This could be one reason why he seems to have regained power on pitches out and over the plate.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Mark Teixeira vs. Pitches Up
Mark Teixeira's 2010 was arguably his worst offensive season since his rookie year in Texas. He had a career low BABIP (.268), however his 19% line drive rate was essentially unchanged from his previous 4 year average. He did have a higher IF/FB% last year compared to his average (17% to 12%), which does include line drives. Maybe Teixeira was lining out to infielders more often last year, I really don't recall. That would be preferable to an increase in pop outs.
I took a closer look at Teixeira's line drives and found that he was hitting fewer liners on balls up in the zone. Compare his line drive rate graphics for the last 3 years:
| Contact % | LD% | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 88.0% | 19.6% | .267 |
| 2009 | 90.3% | 19.7% | .282 |
| 2010 | 85.3% | 14.2% | .253 |
Teixeira's overall BABIPs over that same time period: .346, .302, .268. If his LD% hadn't take a 5% dive, I'd be more willing to believe he was just having bad luck with high pitches. Pitches hit up in the zone tend to end up in the air more often than on the ground. There's a chance that Teixeira was hitting more infield flies on pitches up last season (I don't have any data on zone specific IF/FB% at the moment).
The shift is often deployed against Teixeira which might skew his LD%. Plays that are technically "ground outs" when the ball hits the outfield grass first on a line and then gets fielded by an infielder on a shift would otherwise get labeled as a line drive if there was no shift and the ball got through for a hit. We're working with a small sample size when isolating one portion of the zone, so it's possible just a few of those kinds of outs could have hurt his LD%. I guess an interesting study would be to see if players that see shifts have lower line drive rates in addition to having fewer ground ball hits.
As it stands, it doesn't look like Teixeira was unlucky on high pitches last year; he didn't have his best season at the plate and hitting fewer liners off pitches up in the zone was probably one reason why.
All heatmaps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Gardner’s Discipline
Last year, Brett Gardner ranked in the top
Gardner's .310 OBP between 2008-09 (426 PA) jumped to .375 last year. From the looks of the graphic above, he seems to be swinging at fewer pitches out of the zone.
All heatmaps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
The Fall and Rise of Joba’s Fastball
A few weeks ago we looked at some data on Joba’s slider over the last 3 seasons. Here’s a look at his fastball over that period.| P | AVG | SLG | Contact% | PVX | PVZ | VEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 591 | .284 | .367 | 92.6% | 3.4 | -12.3 | 94.6 |
| 2009 | 1041 | .286 | .456 | 92.6% | 2.2 | -12.7 | 92.2 |
| 2010 | 419 | .274 | .405 | 89.5% | 1.4 | -12.9 | 94.1 |
| P | AVG | SLG | Contact% | PVX | PVZ | VEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 494 | .222 | .287 | 74.4% | 4.2 | -12.3 | 95.9 |
| 2009 | 762 | .327 | .570 | 86.9% | 3.1 | -12.5 | 93.1 |
| 2010 | 383 | .298 | .404 | 84.9% | 3.2 | -12.8 | 95.1 |
The drop in velocity isn’t news. Joba lost about 3 ticks on his fastball in 2009. However, 2010 saw a bump in velocity. This could be a sign that Joba’s arm is rebounding from the shoulder issue that occurred in August of 2008. Then again, a full season of bullpen work, rather than 150+ innings as a starter could have something to do with it.
The vertical movement (PVZ) on Joba’s fastball increased each season, but this is probably attributed to his drop in overall velocity. It’s odd that the horizontal movement on his fastball against lefties continues to drop, especially considering that the red on his heat map (scroll below) seems to edge inward each year (again, a righty throwing a fastball inside more will get a higher reading on his PVX due to the angle of the pitch when crossing the plate). However, a closer look shows that he threw far less inside fastballs in 2010, as the light blue is nearly all gone inside on his heat map to LHB. Thus, while the bulk of his pitches may have been moving in off the outside corner, Joba avoided throwing as many inside fastballs to LHB last season.
There are a number of other factors that may account for this phenomenon, including a possible change in release point and whether Joba altered where he set himself on the rubber. And as SG pointed out, some of the variation may be due to calibration or systemic error rather than any change on Joba’s part. From the data I’ve seen from the rest of the league so far, I’d say that the pitchFX software has been fairly consistent over the last 3 years. I wouldn’t count out some calibration issues, however, any actual deviation resulting from hardware issues over the course of a season is probably minor given the bulk of the data.
A look at the following graph shows that Joba’s fastball velocity rose steadily throughout the 2010 season.
Again, we can only speculate as to the cause, although I’d love to think it’s mainly due to his shoulder fully healing. But more than likely it’s a combination of a decreased workload and a buildup of arm strength.
Lasty, here’s a look at Joba’s heat maps for the last 3 seasons.
You can see that in 2009, Joba’s fastball was catching the inner half of the plate a bit more, particularly against RHB. Combining this with a considerable drop in velocity was deadly, as his .570 SLG% against points out. His 2009 fastball against RHB also caught the upper half of the zone much more, particularly on the mid to outer half of the plate. This is typically a bad place to leave a 92 mph fastball.
In 2010, Joba’s location to RHB changed dramatically as he threw his fastball to a much lower spot, nearly abandoning the upper half of the zone. Doing so shaved over 150 points off his SLG% against to RHB.
Every week that passes seems to indicate that Andy Pettitte is more likely to retire. The Yankees need to fill out their rotation. Now, I understand that this isn’t the same JOBA! of 2007-08. But it might not be the worst thing in the world if the Yankees began to transition him back to a starting role at some point, especially if his arm truly is getting stronger.
Since Boston has already locked up the 2011 AL East title, what’s the harm?
All heatmaps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Monday, December 13, 2010
Joba’s Slider
I wanted to take a closer look at Joba’s PitchFX numbers over the past 3 years to see if anything stood out besides the obvious loss in fastball velocity. Below is some data on Joba’s slider.| P | AVG | SLG | Contact% | PVX | PVZ | VEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 157 | .188 | .292 | 47.1% | 7.6 | -18.3 | 85 |
| 2009 | 201 | .175 | .263 | 60.6% | 6.4 | -17.4 | 85 |
| 2010 | 106 | .222 | .444 | 57.6% | 6.3 | -18.3 | 86 |
| P | AVG | SLG | Contact% | PVX | PVZ | VEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 230 | .159 | .222 | 47.4% | 7.3 | -17.7 | 86 |
| 2009 | 353 | .271 | .402 | 63.6% | 6.4 | -16.5 | 85 |
| 2010 | 241 | .217 | .348 | 64.6% | 6.6 | -16.7 | 87 |
Joba’s pitch count obviously received a bump in 2009 because of the 31 starts he made that year. But overall, batters made better contact on the pitch than in 2008. You can also see that his slider lost a good deal of both vertical and horizontal movement in 2009. He lost nearly a foot per second of vertical movement against LHB and 1.2 against RHB, while losing almost equally as much horizontal movement.
Quick note: I'm posting pitch data as splits because there is usually a noticeable difference in PVX depending on which side of the plate a pitcher throws to. For instance, a right handed fastball tends to cut from right to left. So a pitcher who spots his fastball to the 3rd base side of the plate vs LHB will usually have less horizontal movement overall. This is because the angle the pitch is thrown actually offsets the movement on the pitch. The same RHP will get more movement throwing his fastball away from RHB because he is throwing across his body more and the angle of the throw aligns with the movement of the pitch.
In August of 2008, Joba went on the DL with shoulder inflammation, but returned to pitch in September of that year. I looked at the overall data on his slider in that final month and it was right in line with his pre-DL numbers (PVX of 7.8, PVZ of -18.0). So I’m not sure why he lost so much movement on his slider in 2009, but doubt the injury contributed much at all. I guess he could have been pitching through the injury in September ’08 and only felt the full effects the following season. But I doubt the Yankees training staff would have allowed this to happen. At this point, we can only speculate/complain about the extent his shoulder injury affected his performance.
However, Joba’s heat maps show that location may have been part of the problem with his slider.
You can see that his slider was not dropping out of the zone nearly as much in 2009. It’s possible that since he wasn’t getting as much movement on his slider, it hung in the zone more after 2008. Or perhaps he simply had more trouble locating it in addition to a loss in movement. But it’s pretty apparent that his slider lost some bite after his rookie season.
Granted, it’s really tough to gauge a true level of progression or decline from these numbers since he bounced between starter and reliever each year. I think it’s reasonable to expect his numbers to regress somewhat in his second season with the league getting more looks at him, as well as the increase in work load as a full time starter. But there’s no denying that Joba’s slider was among the best in the league in 2008, and he’s yet to duplicate his success with it since.
Later in the week I'll post some numbers on Joba's fastball since 2008.
All heatmaps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Monday, November 22, 2010
2010: The Year Jeter Did Not Make Contact
SG's recent projections for Derek Jeter, along with comparisons with Eduardo Nunez, had me scrambling to the heat maps again. A few weeks ago, we looked at Jeter’s 2010 heat maps which showed just how poorly he hit against RHP. In that post, I noted how Jeter’s power zone (up and away) decreased significantly last season. Jeter tends get his extra base hits on balls up and out over the plate. In 2010, his in play SLG% on pitches to that area of the zone dropped greatly, especially against RHP.Considering that a decrease in bat speed might be at issue, I decided to look at Jeter’s contact rate from last season to see if anything changed from previous years.
How do Jeter's contact numbers up in the zone compare to his 2009 numbers?
| PA | SLG | wOBA | Contact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs. LHP | 45 | .907 | .630 | 89.3% |
| vs. RHP | 110 | .642 | .434 | 85.3% |
| vs. FB | 101 | .765 | .520 | 86.8% |
| PA | SLG | wOBA | Contact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs. LHP | 60 | .719 | .474 | 83.9% |
| vs. RHP | 78 | .293 | .247 | 79.5% |
| vs. FB | 71 | .441 | .313 | 78.9% |
Across the board, Jeter’s contact rate was down 5% in 2010. Against fastballs in his power zone, it was down nearly 8%. And against right handed fastballs in that zone, his contact rate was down over 10% from 2009 (79.4% to 68.7%). Again, I don't know if this is due to a drop in bat speed, or if his bat speed saw any decline at all from 2009 to 2010. And since we're working with very specific criteria, the sample size is pretty limited. However, just from his overall contact numbers we can see Jeter was swinging and missing at a greater rate, particularly in an area where he gets most of his big hits.
Given the drastic drop in power, Jeter’s 2010 was likely not all a result of decline due to age. He could simply have had an off year, with his problems only partly a result of age related factors. He had a terrible season against RHP which contributed greatly to his overall power outage. However, his numbers do look similar in many respects to his 2008 season numbers, with 2009 looking like the outlier. His 2008 contact rate is similar to last season's as well, with a noticeable drop in contact up and away.
I’m really not sure what to expect out of Jeter in 2011. He probably won’t be as bad as he was in 2010, nor as good as 2009. But unless he can correct his troubles against RHP, he'll probably be closer to the former than the latter.
All heatmaps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Andy Pettitte’s Cutter
Andy Pettitte is undecided about returning for another season with the Yankees. All indications are that if he does return, this will be his last season.Andy has been an effective pitcher for the Yankees since his return to the team in 2007. In fact, he was working on one of his best seasons yet before succumbing to injury in July of this year.
For Andy, it's all about the cutter. The success of every outing is almost entirely determined by how well he's throwing his cut fastball, and he's been very proficient at locating the pitch. This is one of the big reasons he's done so well late in his career.
| P | PA | AVG | SLG | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs. LHB | 518 | 167 | .151 | .233 | .169 |
| vs. RHB | 1037 | 293 | .223 | .385 | .299 |
In 2010, Andy's cutter ranked in the 95th percentile in opponents' AVG, SLG and wOBA, as well as Contact%. One more year of that, or something close to it, would help the Yankees' rotation considerably, and may even be necessary if Lee signs elsewhere.
All heatmaps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Monday, November 8, 2010
Burnett’s 2010 Fastball
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | .250 | .338 | .401 | .334 |
| 2010 | .285 | .363 | .457 | .367 |
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | .222 | .312 | .352 | .303 |
| 2010 | .286 | .373 | .444 | .368 |
A.J. Burnett had a much tougher time against left handed batters in 2010 than in his first season as a Yankee. In addition to the jump in his overall line, Burnett's K-Rate against LHB dropped from 24.9% in 2009 to 16.2% in 2010, striking out 43 fewer.
One thing that stood out was the drop in effectiveness in A.J.'s fastball in 2010, particularly against lefties.
| PA | AVG | SLG | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 274 | .276 | .474 | .378 |
| 2010 | 190 | .371 | .648 | .472 |
A.J.'s 2010 fastball averaged 93.2 MPH, a loss of 1 MPH from 2009. He was also much less effective in throwing the pitch down and away to LHB in 2010.
| PA | AVG | SLG | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 83 | .250 | .325 | .271 |
| 2010 | 52 | .298 | .489 | .378 |
In addition to the drop in velocity, Burnett's fastball also lost some downward movement. In 2010, his fastball was dropping at a rate of 11.6 ft/sec as it crossed the plate, about 4% less than 2009. This loss of movement combined with a drop in velocity may have contributed to his reduced K-Rate to lefties, and decreased the effectiveness of his fastball down in the zone.
UPDATE: Burnett's Pitch Frequencies below the break.
All heatmaps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Really not too much a change in location, although perhaps slightly more pitches over the middle inside part of the plate in 2010. As far as down and away, it doesn't look like much changed in 2010.
I'm still figuring out the software, so forgive the lack of detail in this graph. The exact middle represents 94 MPH, right where A.J.'s 2009 ended. You can see his 2010 fastball velocity remained consistently below 94 throughout the season, even in the early months when he didn't completely suck.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Phil Hughes’ 2010 Cutter (Part Two)
| AVG | SLG | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| April - May | .185 | .407 | .331 |
| June - July | .381 | .667 | .441 |
| August - October | .250 | .500 | .344 |
| AVG | SLG | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| April - May | .225 | .275 | .232 |
| June - July | .444 | .778 | .530 |
| August - October | .316 | .632 | .411 |
Below the break you'll find heat maps for Hughes' pitch frequency throughout the season.
Since his performance numbers are based on plate appearances decided on a cutter, we're working with a relatively small sample size, especially when looking at splits.
Nonetheless, when viewed with his overall pitch frequency, two things stood out to me. First, against RHB in June and July, Hughes kept the cutter down more, and apparently this got him into more trouble. Second, Hughes avoided throwing the cutter in to lefties in June and July. However, when I split the map in half, I found he got hit harder when throwing the pitch inside during that period (.385 SLG% on the outer half compared to 1.125 SLG% on the inner half). As noted in the previous post, his cutter had less movement in June and July. This is pure speculation, but if Hughes knew he wasn't getting as much cut on that pitch, he may have avoided throwing it in to lefties.
All heatmaps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Phil Hughes’ 2010 Cutter
Phil Hughes season was neither awful, nor spectacular. After a great first couple of months, Hughes slipped a bit with a stretch of less than optimal starts. And despite what the media might say, his problems were probably not caused by a skipped start in June.I wanted to take a look at Phil's cutter to see if there was any noticeable change throughout the season. Here are a few nifty heatmaps along with some interesting data points.
On the left, you can see all the hits coming off Hughes' cutter and their locations in the field throughout April and May this season. On the right, you can see the movement on his cutter. This is determined as the pitch is crossing the plate. The x-axis indicates a 13
So the above heat map indicates that Hughes' cutter in April and May had an average downward movement of 12.5
The first thing that stands out is Hughes' June and July heat map. He was not as consistent with his cutter's movement, as you can see the blue creep toward the center of the map a bit more. Same thing from August on, although not nearly as bad. In April and May, Hughes did not seem to throw any flat cutters, as you can see nothing at all nearing that y-axis of 0
| PA | P | H-PlateVel | V-PlateVel | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April - May | 75 | 251 | 7.8 | -12.5 |
| June - July | 51 | 166 | 7.1 | -12.7 |
| August - October | 33 | 126 | 7.3 | -13.3 |
PA: Plate Appearances decided on a cutter
P: Cutters thrown
H-PlateVel: Horizontal movement in
V-PlateVel: Vertical movement in
| Cntct% | Fly-Dist | HR | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April - May | 83.5% | 289 | 2 | .276 |
| June - July | 81.0% | 299 | 3 | .493 |
| August - October | 76.3% | 309 | 3 | .385 |
Cntct%: Contact Rate (in play + foul / swings) on cutters
Fly-Dist: Fly ball distance on cutters
Interesting that Hughes got more swings and misses on his cutter as the season went on (I recall complaining more and more about his inability to get swings and misses). In the middle of the season, Hughes' cutter had the lowest average right to left movement. Not surprising that he was hit hardest during that stretch. It's also interesting that Hughes' cutter had more drop as the season went on, almost an entire
I'll try to dig up anything else on Hughes that may be of interest.
All heatmaps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Derek Jeter’s Forgettable 2010
2010 saw a noticeable drop in Derek Jeter’s offensive production. In 2009, Jeter hit .334/.406/.465, with 212 hits, 18 HR, 72 walks, and 90 strikeouts. This year: .270/.340/.370, with 179 hits, 10 HR, 63 walks, and 106 strikeouts. His wOBA dropped 67 points, from .390 to .323. He also saw a drop in his line drive rate, 19.5% to 14.8%, accompanied by BAbip nearly 50 points below his career average.
The most obvious problem was the drop in power for Jeter this season. His SLG% fell nearly 100 points from 2009. Jeter does most of his damage out and over the upper half of the plate, where he can extend his bat and go the other way with the pitch.
Derek Jeter 2009 In Play SLG% VS. 2010 In Play SLG%
As you can see from the heat maps, Jeter did far less damage in his happy zone in 2010. Also note how his power faded in the middle-in and middle-down areas of the zone as well.
Take a look at how pitchers threw to him this year as compared to last:
Derek Jeter 2009 Pitch Frequency vs. 2010 Pitch Frequency
There’s a slight decrease in pitches thrown to Jeter in the top portion of the zone, as well as more pitches inside in 2010. I’m not sure if this can account for some of his issues this year, but perhaps teams are increasingly pitching Jeter inside in order to limit his “Jeterian” swing. If he’s experiencing a decline in bat speed, this would obviously contribute to his problems in getting around on inside pitches.
It’s no secret that Jeter has a tendency to swing early in counts, especially at the first pitch. This season was no different. In 2009, Jeter had 87 first pitch swings in 716 PA. In 2010, 97 first pitch swings in 739 PA. Unfortunately, his first pitch swings in 2010 were not nearly as successful.
Derek Jeter 2009 First Pitch Swinging VS. 2010
But Jeter’s biggest problem in 2010 was right handed pitchers. In 2009, Jeter hit .311/.381/.435 against RHP, nearly identical to his career line against righties (.307/.377/.437). This year he hit .246/.315/.317.
Derek Jeter facing RHP 2009 VS. 2010
Ouch.
As the Yankees look to resign Jeter this offseason, I doubt this one down year will affect negotiations much. However, while it is reasonable to expect a bounce back year from Jeter in 2011, 2010 is probably a sign of what is waiting towards the end of his next contract.
All heatmaps courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Robinson Cano’s Postseason
How good has Robinson Cano been for the Yankees this postseason? Last night he hit his 4th HR in the ALCS and raised his line to .387/.406/.871 with a .522 wOBA over 32 plate appearances.
Robinson Cano's ALCS In Play SLG%
The handedness of the opposing pitcher has made little difference for Cano as he's hit two HRs off LHP (both against C.J. Wilson in two different games) and two off RHP (Tommy Hunter, Game Two and Colby Lewis, Game Five). In the regular season, 13 of his 28 homers came against lefties.
Two of Cano's postseason HRs and his one triple came on sliders. This should come as no surprise as Cano has slugged .706 against sliders in 2010, first in the AL among LHB with a minimum of 50 PA featuring sliders. His .420 wOBA against the pitch is second in the AL behind Justin Morneau.
Robinson Cano's vs. Sliders in 2010
As the Yankees look to mount a comeback in the ALCS, they will need Cano to continue his outstanding hitting. Of course, they better hope his back doesn't give out from carrying the team for 5 games.
All heatmaps courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Cliff Lee’s Precision
If the Yankees don’t sweep the next three games, more of this awaits in Game 7.
All heatmaps courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Hughes with Two Strikes
Phil Hughes had a little trouble with two strikes against the Rangers’ hitters on Saturday. He went to two strikes on two lefty batters, walking one and yielding a double to the other. After two strikes to 10 right handed Rangers, Hughes allowed 4 hits (2 doubles, 1 triple) while striking out 3.
The top map shows the contact rate (number of balls in play + fouls / number of swings) against Phil Hughes with two strikes on Saturday. Too much red there. The bottom map shows the in play rate (balls put in play / swings). It seemed as though Hughes was trying to elevate his pitches with two strikes against the Rangers, but they weren’t missing. Just for comparison, here’s his 2010 in play map:
UPDATE: Just realized I only put up the in play rate for RHB. Here it is for LHB:
All heatmaps courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Saturday, October 16, 2010
ALCS Game One Strikezone
Here are the heatmaps for both C.J. Wilson and CC Sabathia from last night’s ALCS Game One, separated by balls and called strikes as determined by home plate umpire Gerry Davis.
Early in the game, it seemed as though Sabathia was not getting the paint on the inside outside corner to lefty righty batters. However, it looks like Gerry Davis wasn’t calling pitches on the upper left side of the zone much for either pitcher. It just seemed to harm CC more since he kept trying to hit that spot early on.
However, when comparing Wilson’s called strikes to Sabathia’s called balls, it appears Wilson was getting that lower right portion of the zone more. In fact, CC seemed to miss out on a few calls that were probably within that lower right portion of the strikezone.
UDPATE:
Just realized there’s a nifty “Called Strike Rate” heatmap available. Sorry. I’m still getting used to the software.
Here they are for both pitchers:
All heatmaps courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
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