Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Yahoo: Yankees-Blue Jays Preview
Already without Mariano Rivera (torn ACL), New York placed fill-in closer David Robertson on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday with a strained muscle in his left ribcage.
“We lost Mariano first. The bullpen will do whatever we have to do,” said Rafael Soriano, who is expected to take over for Robertson. “Now with two guys down, it’s not easy for us.”The Yankees have dropped 12 of 19 at Toronto.
I thought the Yankees had done pretty poorly in Toronto recently, but had no idea it was that bad. Needless to say I’m not expecting a great series this week given the current state of the team. Luckily it’s only a two-gamer. Then it’s back home to begin the inanity of interleague play.
Friday, May 11, 2012
Yankees.com: Ibanez’s blast helps Yankees solve Felix
One night after the Bombers knocked around the Rays’ David Price, Raul Ibanez’s three-run homer helped power an 11-hit assault on Felix Hernandez as the Yankees toppled the Mariners, 6-2, on Friday at Yankee Stadium.
“I think that things are definitely coming around offensively; guys are swinging the bats well,” said Ibanez, whose sixth-inning blast off Hernandez put New York in command. “We’ve been having some good swings together as a group.”
Tuesday, May 8, 2012
The Postseason Implications of This Week’s Series with Tampa Bay
The Yankees begin a six game homestand tonight with Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is tied for first place with Baltimore, but it’s a pretty safe bet that they’re better than Baltimore and are a bigger threat to the Yankees’ chances at winning the division.
At the beginning of the season, the Yankees projected about three games better than Tampa Bay (94 wins vs. 91 wins) but the Rays now have a 3.5 game lead and the Yankees are a bit weaker with Michael Pineda on the shelf. Based on what’s happened so far and playing out the rest of the season according to how the teams project going forward gives me a final AL East standings projection that looks something like this.
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | 91 | 71 | 761 | 682 | 44.6% | 26.0% | 12.8% | 83.4% | 2.1 | -4 | -1 |
| Yankees | 91 | 71 | 833 | 718 | 42.8% | 26.0% | 13.2% | 82.0% | -3.7 | -4 | 6 |
| Red Sox | 84 | 78 | 841 | 769 | 6.9% | 9.2% | 16.6% | 32.7% | -7.1 | 12 | 35 |
| Blue Jays | 82 | 80 | 773 | 755 | 4.9% | 8.3% | 13.4% | 26.6% | 1.2 | 0 | -21 |
| Orioles | 78 | 84 | 719 | 783 | 0.9% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 8.3 | 6 | -36 |
W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: 2012 revised projected wins minus 2012 pre-season projected wins
RS+/-: 2012 revised projected runs scored minus 2012 pre-season projected runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2012 revised projected runs allowed minus 2012 pre-season projected runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)
The pitching matchups for this series are as follows.
Tuesday, May 8: The Undefeated James Shields (5-0, 3.05 ERA) vs. Ivan Nova (3-1, 5.58 ERA)
Wednesday, May 9: Jeff Niemann (2-3, 4.05 ERA) vs. David Phelps (0-1, 3.74 ERA)
Thursday, May 10: David Price (5-1, 2.35 ERA) vs. CC Sabathia (4-0, 4.15 ERA)
So here are how the standings and postseason odds change based on the various potential outcomes of this series.
| Rays 3-0 | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | 93 | 69 | 761 | 682 | 61.0% | 18.8% | 8.3% | 88.1% | 3.8 | -4 | -1 |
| Yankees | 89 | 73 | 833 | 718 | 26.2% | 28.5% | 17.0% | 71.7% | -5.3 | -4 | 6 |
| Red Sox | 83 | 79 | 841 | 769 | 5.6% | 11.7% | 15.4% | 32.8% | -7.5 | 12 | 35 |
| Blue Jays | 83 | 79 | 773 | 755 | 6.2% | 10.2% | 15.1% | 31.5% | 1.5 | 0 | -21 |
| Orioles | 78 | 84 | 719 | 783 | 1.0% | 2.8% | 5.4% | 9.2% | 8.3 | 6 | -36 |
| Rays 2-1 | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | 92 | 70 | 761 | 682 | 51.9% | 21.4% | 12.5% | 85.7% | 2.7 | -4 | -1 |
| Yankees | 90 | 72 | 833 | 718 | 36.4% | 26.4% | 14.6% | 77.4% | -4.3 | -4 | 6 |
| Red Sox | 83 | 79 | 841 | 769 | 5.6% | 10.5% | 16.7% | 32.8% | -7.4 | 12 | 35 |
| Blue Jays | 83 | 79 | 773 | 755 | 5.4% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 27.9% | 1.4 | 0 | -21 |
| Orioles | 78 | 84 | 719 | 783 | 0.8% | 2.0% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 8.0 | 6 | -36 |
| Yankees 2-1 | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 91 | 71 | 833 | 718 | 44.7% | 24.9% | 13.9% | 83.5% | -3.4 | -4 | 6 |
| Rays | 91 | 71 | 761 | 682 | 40.4% | 24.5% | 13.2% | 78.1% | 1.8 | -4 | -1 |
| Red Sox | 83 | 79 | 841 | 769 | 7.9% | 9.9% | 16.1% | 34.0% | -7.2 | 12 | 35 |
| Blue Jays | 82 | 80 | 773 | 755 | 5.5% | 8.4% | 12.7% | 26.5% | 1.2 | 0 | -21 |
| Orioles | 78 | 84 | 719 | 783 | 1.5% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 10.2% | 8.2 | 6 | -36 |
| Yankees 3-0 | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 92 | 70 | 833 | 718 | 52.1% | 22.1% | 11.3% | 85.5% | -2.6 | -4 | 6 |
| Rays | 90 | 72 | 761 | 682 | 33.9% | 26.6% | 15.7% | 76.2% | 0.8 | -4 | -1 |
| Red Sox | 84 | 78 | 841 | 769 | 7.7% | 11.2% | 15.1% | 34.0% | -7.1 | 12 | 35 |
| Blue Jays | 82 | 80 | 773 | 755 | 5.1% | 7.6% | 14.5% | 27.2% | 1.2 | 0 | -21 |
| Orioles | 78 | 84 | 719 | 783 | 1.1% | 2.4% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 8.4 | 6 | -36 |
Sure, it’s early. And yes, the Yankees play the Rays enough times over the rest of the season to make up any ground they lose in this series, but this is still a pretty important series. You might even say it’s the most important series of the season so far.
Friday, May 4, 2012
Yankees.com: CC wins fourth straight after Yanks erupt late
KANSAS CITY—Eduardo Nunez’s go-ahead RBI triple opened the floodgates in a four-run seventh inning as the Yankees rallied to top the Royals, 6-2, on Friday at Kauffman Stadium.
Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter also homered as New York snapped its three-game losing skid behind eight strong innings from ace CC Sabathia, who won his fourth straight start.
That was a much needed win, more to regain sanity than anything else.
Also, For now, Robertson, Soriano will split ninth.
This seems like a good idea if it means using Robertson in the higher leverage situations.
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Yankees.com: Garcia ousted early as rallying Yanks fall
NEW YORK—Freddy Garcia is long removed from blowing fastballs by hitters, but he found a second life as a soft-tosser who hit the corners exceptionally. Those days, too, seem to be fading further and further into the rear-view mirror.
Loud boos showered the veteran as he was sent to a second-inning exit on Saturday, and Garcia may have pitched himself out of New York’s rotation with his latest clunker, hit hard for six runs as the Tigers defeated the Yankees, 7-5, at Yankee Stadium.
We can now complete SG’s trend line for Freddy:
April 10: 4.2 IP, 4 R
April 16: 5.2 IP, 5 R
April 21: 1.2 IP, 5 R
April 28: 1.2 IP, 6 R
Friday, April 27, 2012
Yankees.com: Yanks use passed ball to walk off vs. Tigers
NEW YORK—Derek Jeter raced home to score the winning run on a passed ball in the bottom of the ninth inning as the Yankees defeated the Tigers, 7-6, on Friday at Yankee Stadium.
Brayan Villarreal recorded the first out of the ninth inning, but Jeter walked and moved to third base on a wild pitch as Curtis Granderson walked.
The last pitch skipped away from catcher Alex Avila and rolled to the backstop as Alex Rodriguez waved home Jeter, who slid home and called himself safe as Villarreal couldn’t catch the throw to the plate.
The play of the game, of course, was this defensive gem. The hat flying off as he slides/falls-flat-on-his-face is what makes it for me.
Hurry back, Brett.
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
2012 MLB Starting Pitching Through April 24
| Team | IP | TBF | RA | ERA | FIP | xFIP | BB/BF | K/BF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 104.7 | 401 | 2.15 | 1.72 | 2.03 | 2.85 | 5.5% | 24.2% |
| Cardinals | 112.0 | 439 | 2.73 | 2.57 | 3.06 | 3.42 | 5.7% | 17.8% |
| Rangers | 120.7 | 497 | 2.83 | 2.76 | 3.25 | 3.90 | 7.6% | 19.1% |
| Pirates | 86.7 | 354 | 3.01 | 2.8 | 3.10 | 3.86 | 7.3% | 14.7% |
| Phillies | 117.3 | 473 | 3.14 | 2.84 | 3.17 | 3.20 | 5.3% | 20.1% |
| White Sox | 110.7 | 442 | 3.17 | 3.09 | 3.42 | 3.63 | 7.9% | 23.8% |
| Athletics | 122.0 | 495 | 3.32 | 2.95 | 3.63 | 4.19 | 6.1% | 13.3% |
| Marlins | 100.3 | 414 | 3.50 | 3.41 | 3.30 | 3.51 | 6.5% | 18.4% |
| Giants | 107.7 | 439 | 3.59 | 3.51 | 3.66 | 3.80 | 6.8% | 19.6% |
| Dodgers | 104.7 | 435 | 3.61 | 3.01 | 3.63 | 3.80 | 9.4% | 21.8% |
| Rays | 107.3 | 453 | 3.77 | 3.44 | 4.16 | 4.31 | 9.9% | 16.1% |
| Blue Jays | 109.7 | 443 | 4.02 | 3.78 | 5.45 | 4.32 | 9.3% | 13.5% |
| Tigers | 95.3 | 406 | 4.25 | 3.87 | 3.29 | 3.43 | 6.2% | 21.4% |
| Reds | 106.0 | 448 | 4.42 | 3.99 | 3.92 | 4.23 | 6.5% | 14.3% |
| Angels | 106.0 | 440 | 4.50 | 4.33 | 4.24 | 3.40 | 5.9% | 20.2% |
| Mariners | 107.7 | 454 | 4.51 | 4.43 | 3.62 | 3.88 | 5.9% | 18.3% |
| Mets | 96.3 | 418 | 4.58 | 3.92 | 3.62 | 3.25 | 7.7% | 20.8% |
| Indians | 84.0 | 367 | 4.61 | 4.18 | 4.19 | 4.31 | 9.0% | 13.9% |
| Astros | 108.3 | 466 | 4.65 | 4.24 | 4.14 | 4.02 | 8.2% | 16.7% |
| Diamondbacks | 108.0 | 456 | 4.75 | 4.33 | 4.17 | 3.68 | 7.5% | 18.4% |
| Cubs | 106.0 | 455 | 4.75 | 4.25 | 3.42 | 3.63 | 8.8% | 21.8% |
| Braves | 101.7 | 430 | 4.78 | 4.16 | 3.80 | 3.99 | 9.1% | 19.3% |
| Brewers | 102.7 | 441 | 4.91 | 4.82 | 3.91 | 3.60 | 7.0% | 21.8% |
| Padres | 104.0 | 445 | 4.93 | 4.15 | 3.92 | 3.85 | 11.0% | 19.8% |
| Orioles | 100.3 | 433 | 5.02 | 4.22 | 4.33 | 4.15 | 9.5% | 18.7% |
| Royals | 88.0 | 386 | 5.32 | 4.81 | 4.11 | 4.49 | 11.7% | 16.8% |
| Rockies | 88.3 | 390 | 5.40 | 4.89 | 4.96 | 4.83 | 9.5% | 12.6% |
| Red Sox | 94.3 | 413 | 5.72 | 5.63 | 4.92 | 4.22 | 9.9% | 17.9% |
| Yankees | 96.3 | 427 | 6.17 | 5.51 | 4.35 | 3.44 | 6.1% | 21.1% |
| Twins | 95.0 | 423 | 7.01 | 6.73 | 5.50 | 4.38 | 6.9% | 13.0% |
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
xFIP: Expected fielding-independent pitching
Twins pitching vs. the Yankees: 2-2, 6.09 RA
Twins pitching vs. the rest of the league: 3-11, 5.88 RA
Remember how the Yankees’ starting pitching was supposed to be a strength? Now they’re hoping a 40 year old who hasn’t pitched in a year can ride in and save the day.
CC should be fine. I think Nova’s a good bet for continued success thanks to the big improvement in his peripherals. Whether that makes him a 2 or a 3 I don’t know, but it’s probably safer to think he’s a 3. Kuroda will also be ok I think, but I don’t think he’s a 2 in the AL. It’d be nice if Phil Hughes wasn’t awful, because with Michael Pineda looking less and less likely to pitch this year Andy Pettitte could in theory fill one hole between Hughes and Freddy Garcia, but he can’t fill two. My guess is Garcia’s start on Saturday will be his last for this turn in the rotation.
Despite what they’ve shown to date I’d bet a reasonable amount of money the Yankees will not remain the second worst starting rotation in MLB by the end of the year. I think they have a chance to crack the top 20.
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
2012 MLB Offenses through April 23
| Tm | R/G | BR/G |
|---|---|---|
| NYY | 6.06 | 6.18 |
| TEX | 5.76 | 5.83 |
| ATL | 5.47 | 4.71 |
| CLE | 5.29 | 5.08 |
| TOR | 5.12 | 4.65 |
| BOS | 5.07 | 5.18 |
| STL | 4.94 | 5.15 |
| COL | 4.80 | 4.91 |
| TBR | 4.75 | 4.57 |
| HOU | 4.47 | 4.33 |
| CHW | 4.44 | 4.45 |
| SFG | 4.44 | 4.49 |
| LAD | 4.41 | 4.34 |
| DET | 4.38 | 3.85 |
| ARI | 4.29 | 4.22 |
| MIL | 4.29 | 4.14 |
| BAL | 4.25 | 4.27 |
| LgAvg | 4.20 | 4.24 |
| LAA | 4.19 | 4.02 |
| MIA | 3.80 | 4.01 |
| MIN | 3.71 | 4.04 |
| CHC | 3.65 | 3.01 |
| WSN | 3.62 | 3.87 |
| KCR | 3.56 | 4.20 |
| SDP | 3.53 | 3.41 |
| SEA | 3.53 | 2.96 |
| NYM | 3.50 | 4.12 |
| CIN | 3.31 | 3.36 |
| OAK | 2.89 | 3.09 |
| PHI | 2.82 | 3.13 |
| PIT | 2.00 | 1.87 |
R/G: Runs scored per game
BR/G: Linear weights batting runs per game
Yes, I realize posting this means the Yankees will not score for the next week.
Monday, April 23, 2012
NJ.com: Carig: Yankees expect powerful Rangers team in upcoming series
Indeed, the Rangers have lived up to their billing. At spring training, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman proclaimed the Rangers the class of the American League, by virtue of their status as two-time defending league champions. They host the Yankees in a three-game set that begins Monday coming off an 8-1 road trip.
The Rangers have a 13-3 mark, the best in baseball.
“Explosive offensive,” Girardi said. “Speed. Power. Play very good defense. Starting pitching is deep. Their bullpen is deep. They’re a complete team.”
The Rangers lead all of baseball in run differential at +52, having scored 94 runs while allowing 42. At their current pace they’d end the year with a 132-30 record and would score 952 runs and allow 425. Their Pythagenpat winning percentage of .816 is higher than their measly .813 actual winning percentage.
I don’t think they’re quite that good. My favorite quick and dirty check of how a good team is uses the linear weights of the components their offense has produced and their pitching/defense has allowed to see how their runs scored and allowed break down in a neutral context. This will adjust for teams that have performed better or worse than expected in crucial situations, something that is generally not predictive.
According to linear weights batting runs, the Rangers offense should have produced 96 runs and their pitching and defense should have allowed 48. So they’ve really only produced at a level commensurate with a .790 wpct team, aka a team that would win 128 games over a full season.
I knew they weren’t that good.
The Yankees are doomed, aren’t they?
Sunday, April 22, 2012
How have the first two weeks of the 2012 MLB season changed team projections?
We’re roughly about 10% of the way throught the 2012 regular season, which is a pretty small sample size to make sweeping observations about how good or bad teams are. That doesn’t mean that what’s happened to this point isn’t important, because it is. I wanted to see what teams have seen the biggest shifts in their outlooks based on how they projected coming into the year compared what they have done since.
The way I looked at this involves three basic steps.
1) Get 2012 projections. In this case I’m using the average of the 2012 MLB projection blowout that I ran at the beginning of April.
2) Estimate revised team strength. For now, this is just a basic weighted average of the team’s projections heading into the year and their Pythagenpat performance to this point. I’m not making any adjustments for injuries/roster changes/etc., yet, although as we get deeper into the season I’ll probably do that.
3) Run the rest of the 2012 MLB season through my Monte Carlo simulator and see what happens. This includes a variable that alters team strength in each iteration to account for things that projections can’t account for.
Here’s what it says.
| Date | 4/22/2012 | ||||||||||
| Iterations | 100000 | ||||||||||
| American League | |||||||||||
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Yankees | 94 | 68 | 848 | 718 | 49.0% | 14.1% | 24.0% | 87.1% | -0.8 | 12 | 7 |
| Rays | 87 | 75 | 764 | 695 | 23.9% | 15.0% | 34.6% | 73.5% | -2.0 | -1 | 12 |
| Red Sox | 83 | 79 | 828 | 765 | 13.9% | 11.2% | 28.1% | 53.1% | -7.6 | -2 | 32 |
| Blue Jays | 81 | 81 | 780 | 775 | 11.6% | 7.8% | 21.4% | 40.9% | -0.5 | 6 | 0 |
| Orioles | 70 | 92 | 712 | 812 | 1.6% | 1.9% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 0.1 | -1 | -6 |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Tigers | 88 | 74 | 780 | 730 | 46.6% | 6.1% | 17.7% | 70.4% | 2.9 | -4 | -6 |
| Indians | 86 | 76 | 779 | 758 | 33.4% | 8.2% | 22.3% | 63.9% | 3.6 | 12 | 7 |
| White Sox | 78 | 84 | 706 | 755 | 11.2% | 4.4% | 12.9% | 28.5% | 1.6 | -1 | -18 |
| Royals | 70 | 92 | 697 | 771 | 4.5% | 0.8% | 5.6% | 10.9% | -4.8 | -8 | 6 |
| Twins | 70 | 92 | 720 | 824 | 4.2% | 0.9% | 3.7% | 8.8% | -1.6 | -11 | 3 |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Rangers | 99 | 63 | 822 | 679 | 78.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 93.6% | 8.4 | 15 | -24 |
| Angels | 85 | 77 | 738 | 667 | 17.0% | 16.4% | 28.9% | 62.3% | -5.1 | -3 | 6 |
| Mariners | 73 | 89 | 672 | 734 | 2.8% | 3.2% | 7.8% | 13.8% | -1.5 | -10 | -7 |
| Athletics | 72 | 90 | 687 | 739 | 2.0% | 2.8% | 9.0% | 13.8% | -4.1 | -20 | -17 |
| National League | |||||||||||
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Braves | 90 | 72 | 734 | 664 | 32.5% | 11.3% | 23.7% | 67.5% | 2.3 | 20 | -2 |
| Phillies | 88 | 74 | 677 | 611 | 25.9% | 12.4% | 21.6% | 59.9% | -1.4 | -21 | -17 |
| Nationals | 88 | 74 | 674 | 639 | 27.5% | 10.4% | 24.4% | 62.3% | 3.8 | -8 | -17 |
| Marlins | 82 | 80 | 699 | 672 | 11.3% | 8.4% | 18.2% | 37.9% | -1.8 | -8 | -9 |
| Mets | 74 | 88 | 677 | 749 | 2.8% | 3.0% | 8.5% | 14.3% | 0.2 | -6 | -3 |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Cardinals | 94 | 68 | 740 | 662 | 53.9% | 10.5% | 16.8% | 81.1% | 7.2 | 9 | -17 |
| Brewers | 86 | 76 | 700 | 677 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 19.0% | 49.7% | 1.2 | 1 | 13 |
| Reds | 84 | 78 | 699 | 665 | 18.7% | 9.6% | 21.5% | 49.7% | -2.9 | -16 | 5 |
| Pirates | 73 | 89 | 639 | 726 | 3.3% | 1.8% | 6.2% | 11.3% | 1.5 | -29 | -26 |
| Cubs | 68 | 94 | 652 | 757 | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 6.2% | -3.2 | -4 | 7 |
| Astros | 66 | 96 | 607 | 747 | 1.2% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 1.9 | 3 | -8 |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | WC2 | PS% | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Giants | 85 | 77 | 672 | 649 | 29.6% | 5.3% | 14.9% | 49.8% | 0.6 | 0 | 2 |
| Dodgers | 83 | 79 | 649 | 674 | 22.7% | 5.3% | 11.1% | 39.1% | 8.1 | 8 | -17 |
| Diamondbacks | 83 | 79 | 687 | 677 | 22.8% | 4.3% | 14.1% | 41.2% | -1.3 | -6 | 3 |
| Rockies | 81 | 81 | 751 | 744 | 20.1% | 4.9% | 12.6% | 37.6% | -1.2 | 3 | 13 |
| Padres | 72 | 90 | 638 | 690 | 4.8% | 1.4% | 5.1% | 11.3% | -3.5 | -9 | 2 |
W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: 2012 revised projected wins minus 2012 pre-season projected wins
RS+/-: 2012 revised projected runs scored minus 2012 pre-season projected runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2012 revised projected runs allowed minus 2012 pre-season projected runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)
Good thing for Cliff Lee he signed with the young upstart Phillies instead of the old decrepit Yankees. And remember how the Rangers and Angels looked to be neck and neck heading into the year? Yeah. The Dodgers seem to have snuck their way into the division race now, but other than that the division standings look pretty similar to how they did entering the season.
And here’s a chart that shows the changes in revised team wins projections for each team.
| TM | W+/- |
| Rangers | 8.4 |
| Dodgers | 8.1 |
| Cardinals | 7.2 |
| Nationals | 3.8 |
| Indians | 3.6 |
| Tigers | 2.9 |
| Braves | 2.3 |
| Astros | 1.9 |
| White Sox | 1.6 |
| Pirates | 1.5 |
| Brewers | 1.2 |
| Giants | 0.6 |
| Mets | 0.2 |
| Orioles | 0.1 |
| Blue Jays | -0.5 |
| Yankees | -0.8 |
| Rockies | -1.2 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.3 |
| Phillies | -1.4 |
| Mariners | -1.5 |
| Twins | -1.6 |
| Marlins | -1.8 |
| Rays | -2.0 |
| Reds | -2.9 |
| Cubs | -3.2 |
| Padres | -3.5 |
| Athletics | -4.1 |
| Royals | -4.8 |
| Angels | -5.1 |
| Red Sox | -7.6 |
The Rangers have been destroying the competition and look like they’re probably the best team in baseball. The Dodgers and Cardinals are the biggest positive surprises in the National League so far. The Angels are the biggest disappointment in the AL.
But the Red Sox have to be the most pleasant surprise in baseball for me.
Friday, April 20, 2012
Crashing the Party
I decided to make use of my field pass during Yankees' batting practice on Friday afternoon. I figured that I should make the most of it before somebody wised up and revoked it.
Trying to remain as incognito as possible, I snapped off a few pictures using my phone (hence the poor picture quality). Click on any of them to enlarge.
I took this shot just as the Red Sox were finishing up their BP - all the Yankees were still in the dugout getting ready to come out and stretch.
Papelbon is right, Mo has a great smile.
CHB asked asked A-Rod about his favorite Fenway moments. I believe A-Rod mentioned his first major league game in July of 1994.
One of the funnier moments I witnessed was when Nick Swisher came into the dugout before taking BP. Russell Martin was just about to sit down with a reporter from a Canadian news outlet, and Swisher started yelling out, "French time? Time for French!?"
Another interesting thing I caught was Swisher talking to Ibanez about the difference between Yankee Stadium's short porch and the wall in left at Fenway. He said something about how if you get jammed at Yankee Stadium, you won't be able to muscle it out; but you can get jammed and still go deep over the monster. Or maybe it was the other way around. The funny thing was that it almost looked like he got jammed in his first plate appearance on Friday and he actually took it the other way for a HR over the monster.
Kuroda sitting down for an interview with Japanese TV. I only caught one word: Ichiro.
Every time I get an assignment for a Yankee game, I hope to see Mariano Rivera take the mound. So when Cody Eppley came in with a four run lead in the bottom of the ninth, I was a bit disconcerted. However, it only took one single off the bat of Jarrod Saltalamacchia for Girardi to make the inevitable call to the bullpen, and I once again got to see my absolute favorite player in action. Two strike outs and a ground out was all the Red Sox could muster against the greatest closer in baseball history, and the Yankees took the first game of the season series 6-2.
Happy Birthday Fenway.
A Tale of Two Log 5s
The Yankees have been a bit under their expected record to this point using Bill James’s log 5 expectations given pre-season projections for them and their respective opponents and adjusting for home/road advantage/disadvantage.
The Red Sox have been more than a bit under their expected record using the same criteria. Here’s how they compare.
| Team | NYA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Opp | xW | aW |
| 6-Apr | @TAM | 0.53 | 0 |
| 7-Apr | @TAM | 0.53 | 0 |
| 8-Apr | @TAM | 0.53 | 0 |
| 9-Apr | @BAL | 0.65 | 1 |
| 10-Apr | @BAL | 0.65 | 1 |
| 11-Apr | @BAL | 0.65 | 1 |
| 13-Apr | LAA | 0.52 | 1 |
| 14-Apr | LAA | 0.52 | 0 |
| 15-Apr | LAA | 0.52 | 1 |
| 16-Apr | MIN | 0.64 | 0 |
| 17-Apr | MIN | 0.64 | 1 |
| 18-Apr | MIN | 0.64 | 0 |
| 19-Apr | MIN | 0.64 | 1 |
| 7.68 | 7.00 |
| Team | BOS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Opp | xW | aW |
| 5-Apr | @DET | 0.53 | 0 |
| 7-Apr | @DET | 0.53 | 0 |
| 8-Apr | @DET | 0.53 | 0 |
| 9-Apr | @TOR | 0.56 | 1 |
| 10-Apr | @TOR | 0.56 | 0 |
| 11-Apr | @TOR | 0.56 | 0 |
| 13-Apr | TAM | 0.51 | 1 |
| 14-Apr | TAM | 0.51 | 1 |
| 15-Apr | TAM | 0.51 | 1 |
| 16-Apr | TAM | 0.51 | 0 |
| 17-Apr | TEX | 0.50 | 0 |
| 18-Apr | TEX | 0.50 | 0 |
| 6.33 | 4.00 |
xW: Expected wins using log 5 and these pre-season projections
aW: Actual wins
The Yankees actually project as slight favorites in this series at 1.56 - 1.44. Here’s how the two teams’ would compare to their overall log 5 based on the various potential series outcomes.
Yankee sweep: Yankees aW: 10, xW: 9.23, Boston aW: 4, xW: 7.77
Yankees 2-1: Yankees aW: 9, xW: 9.23, Boston aW: 5, xw: 7.77
Boston 2-1: Yankees aW: 8, xW: 9.23, Boston aW: 6, xW: 7.77
Boston sweep: Yankees aW: 7, xW: 9.23, Boston aW: 7, xW: 7.77
So the Yankees really only need to win one of these games to remain closer to their relative expectations than Boston.
I’d obviously like to see more than that.
Monday, April 16, 2012
CBS Sports: MLB Preview: Minnesota at New York
Including postseason, Derek Jeter and the New York Yankees have won 33 of 40 at home against the Twins over the past decade, and Yankee Stadium fans will likely be relishing the chance to rudely greet Minnesota starter Carl Pavano.
Minnesota (2-7) was swept over the weekend by Texas at home, and now faces a major nemesis. The Yankees (5-4) have eliminated Ron Gardenhire’s club from the playoffs four times in the decade since he took over as Twins manager, and he’s well aware of his poor record in the Bronx.
“We just play the schedule,” Gardenhire told MLB.com. “We’ll go to New York for four tough games, and then off to Tampa for three more tough ballgames. So it’s a tough road trip.”
The Twins didn’t project to be very good this year and so far they’re living up to that. While they’re probably better than the 36-126 pace that they’re on, they may be the worst team in the American League. Which would make them the favorite for the NL Wild Card. The Twins’ primary problem this year has been offense. Only Oakland is scoring fewer runs per game than them. Their pitching has also been pretty crappy with an RA of 5.33 per game, but that’s better than four other teams. Interesting note, Tampa Bay has the worst RA in the league. Mentioning this allows me to post this very irritating table of Tampa Bay’s 2012 pitching splits so far.
| Split | W | L | RA | FIP | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | BF | BB/BF | K/BF | BABIP |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 3 | 11.63 | 7.78 | 24 | 39 | 31 | 31 | 7 | 16 | 16 | 124 | 12.9% | 12.9% | .381 |
| New York Yankees | 3 | 0 | 4.00 | 5.09 | 27 | 21 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 18 | 16 | 119 | 15.1% | 13.4% | .232 |
If it makes you feel better, I’m sure Tampa Bay’s fan is not happy about this either.
Back to the Twins, the pitching matchups for this series are:
Monday, April 16, 7:05 PM ET
Carl Pavano vs. Freddy Garcia
Tuesday, April 17, 7:05 PM ET
Francisco Liriano vs. CC Sabathia
Wednesday, April 18, 7:05 PM ET
Jason Marquis vs. Hiroki Kuroda
Thursday, April 19, 7:05 PM ET
To be announced vs. Phil Hughes
You have to give the Twins the edge in that Thursday match up. Pavano vs. Garcia is probably a tossup, and I’d give the Yankees the edge in the other two matchups. A sweep of a four game series is tough no matter how poor the opponent, but I’ll be disappointed in anything less.
This also means that Ivan Nova will start the first game of the Yankees’ next series in Fenway. I trust Nova more than any other pitcher in the rotation right now (given the way CC’s looked so far) to pitch decently against Boston, which means he’ll probably get shelled.
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Yankees.com: Jeter’s homer helps Yankees outslug Angels
NEW YORK—Derek Jeter cracked a three-run homer and Ivan Nova turned in six effective innings for the victory as the Yankees defeated the Angels, 11-5, on Sunday at Yankee Stadium.
Mark Teixeira had two hits, including a run-scoring double, as part of a four-run third inning that sent Angels starter Jerome Williams to an early exit.
Jeter’s second blast of the year was a line drive into the right-field seats off Hisanori Takahashi in the fourth inning, opening up a seven-run lead and providing Nova with a large cushion to cruise toward his second victory of the year.
The Angels made it a three-run game by the seventh, when Albert Pujols knocked in a run with a single facing an ineffective Rafael Soriano, but David Robertson bailed the Yankees out of a bases-loaded jam to escape the inning.
It’s nice when the Yankee offense graces us with their presence, isn’t it? Derek Jeter can’t carry this team alone all season.
Nova’s final line doesn’t look all that great, but I thought he pitched pretty well over most of the game. He continued to show the separation in his walks and strikeouts that are an indication that he’s not pitching over his head with 2 BB and 8 K, but he gave up 2 HRs and 4 runs so it was a mixed outing.
The Yankees have won 5 of 6 after starting the year 0 for 3 against the juggernaut Rays. The schadenfreude-lover in me also is happy that the Angels weren’t able to leave this series feeling they’ve “turned their season around” and that Albert Pujols didn’t really break out. I still think they’re a good team and will be in contention until the end of the year, but let that start after tonight.
A 5-4 record feels meh, but it’s about where we should have realistically expected them to be at this point. The home series against the Twins starting tomorrow seems like a good opportunity to try and move ahead of those expectations.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Sliding 101 with Eduardo Nunez
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Yankees.com: 100 years ago, Yankees pinstripes are born
NEW YORK—In a wooden ballpark located on The Hilltop in upper Manhattan, northwest of the Polo Grounds and close to the shores of the Hudson River, the New York Highlanders were ready to open their 1912 season. Their opponents on this day, April 11, were the Boston Red Sox. They were not rivals.
The Highlanders, commonly called the Yankees but a year away from formally taking on the name, had altered their uniforms nearly every year since their arrival from Baltimore in 1903. This season, they had another new look, sported by 23-year-old Ray Caldwell as he delivered the first pitch of the season.
They had added pinstripes.
According to the article, the Cubs were actually the first team to have pinstripes on their baseball uniform dating back to 1907.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Ivan Nova’s Curveball
| P | Zone% | Chase% | Miss% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 Season | 589 | 41.3% | 26.0% | 26.6% |
| 4/9/2012 | 23 | 60.9% | 55.6% | 45.5% |
Ivan Nova's curveball was really working last night. In two strike counts, he threw the pitch ten times, resulting in no hits and five strikeouts. Of those five strikeouts, four came on curveballs located out of the zone. I'd like to think that he was able to set that up by locating his curve in the strike zone throughout the game. If batters were aware that Nova was willing to throw the pitch in the zone, they were probably more likely to hack at it in two strike counts.
The two hits he gave up on curves were both located inside the strike zone: a double by Wieters in the 4th on a 2-1 pitch with the bases empty, and a single by Adam Jones in the 6th on an 0-1 pitch with the bases empty.
The one backwards K Nova recorded with his curveball last night came in the bottom of the seventh against Robert Andino. That must be why he was so testy after the game....
Monday, April 9, 2012
Yankees.com: Jeter’s four hits set up Yankees’ first win
BALTIMORE—Derek Jeter had four hits and Andruw Jones homered to support Ivan Nova’s effort as the Yankees posted their first victory of the season on Monday, defeating the Orioles, 6-2, at Camden Yards.
Hoping to avoid their first 0-4 start since 1973, the Yankees rode seven solid innings from Nova, who outpitched Baltimore counterpart Brian Matusz and washed away the remnants of an unsuccessful spring.
I generally look at three numbers after every Nova start. Runs, walks and strikeouts. When he allows two runs, walks none and strikes out seven, I’m seeing the evidence I need to see to think that Nova’s improvement over the last season or so is legitimate and sustainable. He hit 96 mph and had great breaking stuff tonight, and threw the best game a Yankee starter has thrown this year.
CBS Sports: MLB Preview: New York at Baltimore
Perhaps the only thing more surprising than how well the Baltimore Orioles have played this season is how poorly the New York Yankees have looked.
The Orioles will try to open 4-0 for the second consecutive season and send the Yankees to their first 0-4 start in 39 years Monday night in the opener of a three-game series at Camden Yards.
While ending a run of 14 straight losing seasons would be considered a very successful campaign for Baltimore, the Yankees are again expected to compete for a championship.
| Tm | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| BAL | 102 | 15 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 12 | .275 | .353 | .495 | .847 |
| NYY | 119 | 12 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 16 | .212 | .336 | .343 | .680 |
| Tm | W | L | ERA | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO |
| BAL | 3 | 0 | 1.00 | 27 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 16 |
| NYY | 0 | 3 | 5.92 | 24.1 | 29 | 18 | 16 | 5 | 16 | 4 | 28 |
| Tm | Pos | CH | PM | AvgPM | Diff | RS |
| Bal | 1B | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Bal | 2B | 12 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Bal | 3B | 10 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Bal | CF | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Bal | LF | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Bal | RF | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Bal | SS | 9 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| Bal | Total | 51 | 45 | 43 | 2 | 2 |
| NYY | 1B | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| NYY | 2B | 6 | 3 | 4 | -1 | -1 |
| NYY | 3B | 10 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| NYY | CF | 10 | 6 | 8 | -2 | -2 |
| NYY | LF | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | -1 |
| NYY | RF | 9 | 7 | 8 | -1 | -1 |
| NYY | SS | 8 | 4 | 6 | -2 | -2 |
| NYY | Total | 48 | 31 | 38 | -7 | -7 |
CH: Fieldable chances in Zone Rating
PM: Plays made (CH converted into outs)
AvgPM: PM by average defender over same # of chances
Diff: PM minus AvgPM
RS: Runs saved compared to average (Diff times run value at position of a play made)
Sunday, April 8, 2012
A Tale of Two Defenses
| Player | Tm | Lg | Pos | CH | PM | AvgPM | Diff | RS |
| Rodriguez, Sean | TB | AL | SS | 6 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Brignac, Reid | TB | AL | SS | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | NYY | AL | 3B | 7 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Joyce, Matt | TB | AL | LF | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Keppinger, Jeff | TB | AL | 2B | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodriguez, Sean | TB | AL | 2B | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Zobrist, Ben | TB | AL | RF | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Teixeira, Mark | NYY | AL | 1B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gardner, Brett | NYY | AL | LF | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Swisher, Nick | NYY | AL | RF | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnson, Elliot | TB | AL | 2B | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Nunez, Eduardo | NYY | AL | SS | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Longoria, Evan | TB | AL | 3B | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| Pena, Carlos | TB | AL | 1B | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| Jennings, Desmond | TB | AL | CF | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| Jones, Andruw | NYY | AL | LF | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | -1 |
| Cano, Robinson | NYY | AL | 2B | 5 | 2 | 4 | -2 | -2 |
| Jeter, Derek | NYY | AL | SS | 4 | 1 | 3 | -2 | -2 |
| Granderson, Curtis | NYY | AL | CF | 8 | 4 | 7 | -3 | -2 |
| Total | TB | 32 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Total | NYY | 36 | 22 | 30 | -8 | -6 |
CH: Fieldable chances in Zone Rating
PM: Plays made (CH converted into outs)
AvgPM: PM by average defender over same # of chances
Diff: PM minus AvgPM
RS: Runs saved compared to average (Diff times run value at position of a play made)
Sample size, blah blah blah. Defensive metrics, blah blah blah.
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
CAIRO 2012 v1.0 and Final Pre-season MLB Standings Projection
I’ve uploaded the final pre-season 2012 CAIRO projections and projected standings. They can be downloaded here.
Yeah, I know Opening Day was technically last week. Sue me.
Here are the standings and of course, the pie charts. I should be posting more projected standings from other systems later today, so I’ll save the disclaimers and explanations for after that’s all done.
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PS% | W 1 Std |
| AL East | NYA | 96 | 66 | 848 | 713 | 52.8% | 19.6% | 11.1% | 83.5% | 86 - 106 |
| AL East | BOS | 91 | 71 | 857 | 751 | 23.7% | 21.0% | 16.1% | 60.8% | 81 - 101 |
| AL East | TAM | 91 | 71 | 765 | 667 | 22.4% | 25.7% | 14.9% | 63.0% | 81 - 101 |
| AL East | TOR | 79 | 83 | 771 | 793 | 0.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 6.2% | 69 - 89 |
| AL East | BAL | 70 | 92 | 736 | 838 | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 60 - 80 |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PS% | W 1 Std |
| AL Central | DET | 87 | 75 | 803 | 741 | 55.2% | 1.3% | 10.3% | 66.8% | 77 - 97 |
| AL Central | CLE | 84 | 78 | 759 | 721 | 36.4% | 2.4% | 9.3% | 48.0% | 74 - 94 |
| AL Central | CHA | 74 | 88 | 699 | 806 | 3.0% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 4.0% | 64 - 84 |
| AL Central | KC | 73 | 89 | 682 | 754 | 3.6% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 4.6% | 63 - 83 |
| AL Central | MIN | 71 | 91 | 725 | 815 | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 61 - 81 |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PS% | W 1 Std |
| AL West | TEX | 93 | 69 | 809 | 685 | 54.2% | 12.7% | 17.3% | 84.1% | 83 - 103 |
| AL West | LAA | 92 | 70 | 739 | 640 | 44.7% | 14.3% | 14.6% | 73.6% | 82 - 102 |
| AL West | OAK | 74 | 88 | 685 | 753 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 64 - 84 |
| AL West | SEA | 73 | 89 | 669 | 742 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 63 - 83 |
| AL | WC1 | 93 | ||||||||
| AL | WC2 | 90 | ||||||||
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PS% | W 1 Std |
| NL East | PHI | 91 | 71 | 690 | 610 | 51.0% | 15.1% | 9.0% | 75.0% | 81 - 101 |
| NL East | ATL | 86 | 76 | 705 | 664 | 20.5% | 16.4% | 10.2% | 47.1% | 76 - 96 |
| NL East | WAS | 85 | 77 | 669 | 632 | 17.7% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 40.1% | 75 - 95 |
| NL East | FLA | 83 | 79 | 710 | 694 | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 25.9% | 73 - 93 |
| NL East | NYN | 74 | 88 | 665 | 737 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 64 - 84 |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PS% | W 1 Std |
| NL Central | STL | 89 | 73 | 728 | 654 | 47.2% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 67.7% | 79 - 99 |
| NL Central | MIL | 86 | 76 | 695 | 646 | 29.2% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 52.6% | 76 - 96 |
| NL Central | CIN | 85 | 77 | 707 | 670 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 44.8% | 75 - 95 |
| NL Central | PIT | 71 | 91 | 653 | 743 | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 61 - 81 |
| NL Central | CHN | 71 | 91 | 648 | 748 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 61 - 81 |
| NL Central | HOU | 61 | 101 | 584 | 752 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 51 - 71 |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PS% | W 1 Std |
| NL West | SF | 85 | 77 | 663 | 634 | 36.5% | 5.2% | 10.2% | 51.9% | 75 - 95 |
| NL West | ARI | 84 | 78 | 692 | 674 | 33.9% | 3.0% | 9.2% | 46.0% | 74 - 94 |
| NL West | COL | 82 | 80 | 755 | 750 | 21.2% | 2.9% | 6.6% | 30.7% | 72 - 92 |
| NL West | SD | 76 | 86 | 635 | 674 | 4.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 6.6% | 66 - 86 |
| NL West | LAN | 75 | 87 | 622 | 671 | 4.3% | 0.3% | 2.5% | 7.1% | 65 - 85 |
| NL | WC1 | 90 | ||||||||
| NL | WC2 | 88 |
Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
PS%: Total percentage team qualified for the postseason (DIV + WC1 + WC2)
W 1 Std: Wins within one standard deviation
Saturday, March 24, 2012
Boston.com: Valentine blasts Girardi
When the inning was over, the Red Sox took the field but were waved off by the umpires. Valentine had righthander Clayton Mortensen warmed up and coming in from the bullpen.
“It was regretful that [Clayton] Mortensen warmed up though and then we were told that they weren’t going to play extra innings. I didn’t think that that was very courteous,’’ Valentine said.
“The umpire came over and said we couldn’t play. I don’t care about not playing. Why do I have to warm up my pitcher who’s trying to make a team? Come in in a tie game against the Yankees and maybe help him make a team, and instead he has to walk off the mound and take a shower. That’s just not very courteous.’’
According to their travel roster, the Yankees had seven pitchers available. One of them, D.J. Mitchell, threw in the bullpen during the game and could not have pitched. But the others could have.
“Usually there’s communication between the umpires and the manager and it didn’t happen tonight for whatever reason,’’ Girardi said. “I didn’t know they had another guy.’’
Valentine expected that message to come from Girardi.
“Usually you go over and say, ‘Hey, I don’t have any more.’ I don’t know. I haven’t been around in a long time,’’ he said. “Joe knows better than I. I guess you just walk off the field.
“I’m sure [Girardi] didn’t do anything deliberate. It’s just I have to answer a pitcher who’s trying to make the team. That’s why you use that bullpen.’’
If getting Mortensen in the game was so important to Valentine, perhaps he could have used him in one of the nine official innings, perhaps in one of the seven thrown by Aaron Cook and Ross Ohlendorf? And if giving Mortensen a fair chance to make the team is so important to Valentine, is there any reason he’s pitched a grand total of three times this spring?
Sunday, March 18, 2012
WaPo: Boswell: Phillies’ toughest opponent might be Father Time
Baseball must despise a sure thing. The Phils are still a sane pick to be in the World Series. But they also might not even win their own division. With a speed that is chilling, the gap between the Phils and the rest of the NL East — much less all of baseball — has shrunk to the point where this season, or very soon, the young, rising Braves, Nationals and Marlins, or all three of them, may be on the Phils’ aging heels.
I want to take a trip down memory lane.
“Texas probably finished second to be honest with you. Just as far as the quality of the team and the chance to win a World Series ring, I think they’re a better team. That’s just my opinion. The Yankees can do anything at any moment to improve and they’re not afraid to go do things. That was part of the decision making process too,
Durp.
but I felt like with what the Red Sox had done and it seems like some of the Yankee guys are getting older, but I liked the Rangers.”
Double durp.
If I sum up age times PA and age times batters faced divided by PA + BF for all teams using my current depth charts for 2012, here’s the average age by team.
PHI: 30.5
NYA: 30.1
STL: 29.3
LAA: 28.9
BOS: 28.6
MIN: 28.6
OAK: 28.4
COL: 28.3
LAD: 28.2
MIL: 28.1
CHN: 28.1
PIT: 27.9
TEX: 27.9
NYN: 27.9
SF: 27.7
MIA: 27.6
TB: 27.6
HOU: 27.5
CLE: 27.4
BAL: 27.4
CHA: 27.4
SEA: 27.2
SD: 27.1
ARI: 27.0
CIN: 27.0
DET: 27.0
WAS: 26.9
TOR: 26.6
ATL: 26.5
KC: 26.0
Triple durp.
Here are CAIRO’s up to the minute projections for each of the three teams that were in contention for Cliff Lee’s services.
NYA: 96-66
TEX: 93-69
PHI 91-71
Quadruple durp.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
SI.com: Phillies And Yankees Both Interested In Jorge Soler
The Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Yankees are currently interested in 19-year-old Cuban baseball prospect, according to ESPN.com.
Soler is considered a major power hitting prospect, and according to some analysts would be one of the top 50 prospects in baseball immediately after signing with a team. While some believe he isn’t athletic as fellow Cuban defector Yeonis Cespedes, who just yesterday signed a four-year, $36 million deal with the Oakland Athletics, he is seven years younger and may have more upside.
Montreal Gazette: Pirates still out front in A.J. Burnett sweepstakes
Yes, the Montreal Gazette. I am going international in the quest to know the very latest on this critical situation and will leave no stone unturned.
A source said Tuesday that the Indians and Angels checked in about Burnett, with Cleveland offering Travis Hafner as part of its proposal. The source said the Angels made what the Yankees considered to be an “even better offer,” but Burnett has a limited no-trade clause that lists 10 teams, including the Angels.
I wonder who the Angels offered? I’d assume Jeff Mathis but he was traded, so it must be someone of that ilk. Vernon Wells maybe?
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
How Much Might A.J. Burnett Be Worth to Pittsburgh?
There’s been no reported change in the status of the Yankees discussing trading A.J. Burnett to the Pirates. According to Marc Carig the teams are deadlocked over the parameters of a potential deal.
The Yankees have already rejected a proposal in which the Pirates would have absorbed $10 million while sending a package of minor-leaguers for Burnett. But left-handed DH candidate Garrett Jones was never discussed, the person with knowledge said.
The Yankees, according the person with knowledge, are “fully prepared to have A.J. in camp,” if a deal can’t be arranged. However, the Pirates remain frontrunners in talks.
Two other teams are involved in trade talks for Burnett, and according to the person with knowledge, one of the teams is “very serious.” But that club is one of several on the West Coast included on Burnett’s no-trade list.
We know Burnett’s raw stats would probably look better in the NL, but I thought it might be instructive to look at two sets of CAIRO projections for Burnett.
Burnett as a Yankee
| % | G | GS | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 36 | 36 | 12 | 11 | 211 | 205 | 104 | 96 | 24 | 78 | 9 | 196 | 4.42 | 4.12 | 3.84 | 39 | 3.9 |
| 65% | 34 | 34 | 11 | 11 | 200 | 201 | 105 | 98 | 25 | 79 | 10 | 179 | 4.73 | 4.41 | 4.18 | 30 | 3.0 |
| Baseline | 32 | 32 | 10 | 11 | 190 | 199 | 106 | 99 | 26 | 79 | 11 | 164 | 5.03 | 4.70 | 4.52 | 22 | 2.2 |
| 35% | 26 | 26 | 7 | 10 | 152 | 165 | 90 | 84 | 23 | 67 | 10 | 126 | 5.33 | 4.99 | 4.86 | 13 | 1.3 |
| 20% | 23 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 133 | 149 | 83 | 78 | 22 | 62 | 10 | 106 | 5.63 | 5.28 | 5.20 | 7 | 0.7 |
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs saved above replacement level using RA
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
Burnett as a Pirate
| % | G | GS | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 36 | 36 | 13 | 10 | 211 | 182 | 87 | 81 | 19 | 76 | 9 | 218 | 3.72 | 3.46 | 3.30 | 36 | 3.6 |
| 65% | 34 | 34 | 11 | 11 | 200 | 179 | 89 | 83 | 20 | 77 | 10 | 199 | 4.01 | 3.74 | 3.62 | 28 | 2.8 |
| Baseline | 32 | 32 | 10 | 11 | 190 | 177 | 91 | 85 | 21 | 77 | 11 | 183 | 4.29 | 4.01 | 3.95 | 21 | 2.1 |
| 35% | 26 | 26 | 8 | 9 | 152 | 147 | 77 | 72 | 19 | 65 | 10 | 141 | 4.57 | 4.28 | 4.27 | 12 | 1.2 |
| 20% | 23 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 133 | 133 | 72 | 67 | 18 | 60 | 10 | 118 | 4.86 | 4.55 | 4.60 | 6 | 0.6 |
In terms of value there’s not much difference there. The values aren’t identical but they are close enough to basically be equivalent given the margin of error inherent in projections. Eyeballing the Pirates’ projections, Burnett would probably be their best starter assuming Erik Bedard can’t stay healthy, which is generally a safe assumption. If 2 WAR is close for Burnett in 2012, then we can probably assume something like 1-1.5 WAR in 2013, so he should be worth something like 3-3.5 WAR for Pittsburgh.
The problem is we don’t know how much a marginal win for Pittsburgh is worth to them. Accordign to my last projected standings Pittsburgh projected to win around 68 games. An earlier Marcel run said 72. Adding two wins to either total still leaves Pittsburgh well short of realistic contention although it probably boosts their odds of qualifying for the postseason by about 3%. If a marginal win is worth something like $5M to the Yankees, it may only be worth something like $3M to Pittsburgh.
If I were Pittsburgh, I’d hold steady at $10M. I don’t think Burnett’s worth more than that to them. My guess is the Yankees will eventually cave after trying to extract every last cent they can. $10M is probably worth more to them than having Burnett at this point.
Monday, February 13, 2012
WSJ: Where Burnett Places In the Pantheon of Busts
If his Yankee career is over after three years, a 34-35 record, and a 4.79 ERA, then we can finally assess Burnett’s place in the Yankee pantheon—of free agent busts. Before the 2009 season, the Yankees promised Burnett $82.5 million over five years. Various reports indicate that the Pirates could pick up between $10 million and $13 million of the remaining $33 million the Yankees owe Burnett—meaning the Yankees will pay Burnett roughly $70 million for a total of 3.4 Wins Above Replacement, a stat that measures a player’s total value over that of a triple-A call-up, according to Baseball-Reference.com.
How does that measure up against some of the other long-term, little-return contracts the Yankees have handed out in the Derek Jeter era? Will Burnett be remembered as poorly as big-name busts like Kenny Rogers, Kei Igawa, and Carl Pavano?
This deal seems to be taking too long to materialize, making me think Pittsburgh is starting to get wise. We need more articles written about Game Two to help sway their front office.
Sunday, February 12, 2012
TGS: Pirates lead A.J. Burnett talks
The two teams haven’t agreed on the dollar figure the Yankees will eat to facilitate the trade, and they haven’t agreed on the players that the Pirates will send to the Yankees.
But they have found enough common ground that Pittsburgh is now the clear front-runner.
A source familiar with the negotiations had told ESPNNewYork’s Wallace Matthews on Saturday that the talks had “legs” and were “real.”
But Pirates right fielder Garrett Jones, a left-handed bat whom the Yankees coveted, had been taken off the table, according to the source.
With the serious trade talks going on the Yankees have paused their pursuit of a designated hitter in the free agent market.
They are doing so, a baseball official said, because they want to see if they receive someone who could DH in a possible deal for Burnett.
Apparently, the Yankees “don’t love” the two minor leaguers the Pirates have offered in a potential A.J. Burnett trade.
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
CAIRO 2012 v0.5 and More Somewhat Useless Projected Standings
I’ve uploaded the latest version of the 2012 MLB CAIRO projections. They can be downloaded here.
The only changes from version 0.4 were moving players who were signed/traded to their new teams. I think this will probably be the last release until right before Opening Day unless I find any issues.
I figured since I’ve updated again I’d run another set of projected standings so here is what they look like.
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| AL East | NYA | 97 | 65 | 844 | 692 | 54.3% | 22.5% | 8.0% | 84.8% |
| AL East | TAM | 92 | 70 | 772 | 660 | 23.2% | 27.4% | 14.1% | 64.8% |
| AL East | BOS | 92 | 70 | 862 | 745 | 22.1% | 27.0% | 15.3% | 64.4% |
| AL East | TOR | 78 | 84 | 758 | 795 | 0.4% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 4.1% |
| AL East | BAL | 70 | 92 | 734 | 847 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| AL Central | DET | 88 | 74 | 814 | 741 | 60.7% | 1.6% | 12.7% | 75.0% |
| AL Central | CLE | 84 | 78 | 763 | 729 | 32.1% | 0.8% | 9.5% | 42.4% |
| AL Central | CHA | 74 | 88 | 705 | 805 | 3.5% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 4.7% |
| AL Central | KC | 74 | 88 | 687 | 762 | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 4.1% |
| AL Central | MIN | 67 | 95 | 720 | 861 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| AL West | TEX | 92 | 70 | 812 | 695 | 51.2% | 8.6% | 17.0% | 76.8% |
| AL West | LAA | 91 | 71 | 741 | 653 | 47.0% | 9.9% | 16.6% | 73.5% |
| AL West | OAK | 76 | 86 | 685 | 735 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.9% |
| AL West | SEA | 74 | 88 | 673 | 729 | 1.2% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 2.4% |
| AL | WC1 | 94 | |||||||
| AL | WC2 | 91 | |||||||
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| NL East | PHI | 92 | 70 | 701 | 605 | 60.8% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 82.2% |
| NL East | WAS | 86 | 76 | 676 | 625 | 18.6% | 18.2% | 9.1% | 45.8% |
| NL East | ATL | 85 | 77 | 700 | 676 | 13.2% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 36.7% |
| NL East | FLA | 82 | 80 | 708 | 699 | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 22.3% |
| NL East | NYN | 75 | 87 | 670 | 733 | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.2% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| NL Central | STL | 90 | 72 | 737 | 654 | 47.8% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 70.5% |
| NL Central | CIN | 87 | 75 | 715 | 665 | 27.3% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 51.0% |
| NL Central | MIL | 86 | 76 | 696 | 645 | 24.6% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 48.6% |
| NL Central | CHN | 71 | 91 | 650 | 745 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| NL Central | PIT | 68 | 94 | 649 | 764 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| NL Central | HOU | 60 | 102 | 584 | 773 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| NL West | SF | 85 | 77 | 663 | 630 | 38.1% | 3.1% | 8.4% | 49.5% |
| NL West | ARI | 84 | 78 | 659 | 634 | 33.5% | 3.6% | 8.9% | 46.1% |
| NL West | COL | 81 | 81 | 761 | 759 | 18.3% | 3.0% | 6.6% | 27.9% |
| NL West | SD | 76 | 86 | 633 | 668 | 5.2% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 8.2% |
| NL West | LAN | 75 | 87 | 621 | 669 | 4.9% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 7.3% |
| NL | WC1 | 90 | |||||||
| NL | WC2 | 88 |
Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
These look more realistic to me than the last set I ran with Marcel. Probably a bit high on the Yankees, but since CAIRO was created to make the Yankees look better than they are that stands to reason.
I am a bit surprised that Washington now projects better than Atlanta, even if it’s just a one game edge. The only other major differences from this and the Marcel version is St. Louis at the top of the NL Central and San Francisco and Arizona above Colorado, both of which make sense to me.
Anyway, it’s still early, this is still not that useful, etc.,
Saturday, February 4, 2012
NY Post: Girardi says Yankees need some more offense
“I think it will be helpful,” Girardi said of potentially adding another hitter. “I think we’ve had a good offseason, [but] I think it’s important to our club that you add that other bat.”
General manager Brian Cashman is looking for a designated hitter to replace recently traded Jesus Montero. Former Yankees Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui are among the free-agent possibilities.
“Johnny has been a great player for a long time,” Girardi said. “There’s been a bunch of names talked about, and they’re all good players. [Raul] Ibanez, he’s had a great career, and Matsui has had a great career. Obviously, we know what Johnny and [Matsui] have meant to this organization and Ibanez has had success wherever he’s been. ...”
Well, except when he started out in Seattle. But that was like 12 years ago - he’s just hitting his stride now.
Saturday, January 28, 2012
Still Too Early 2012 MLB Standings Projection
Instead of running these with CAIRO this time I used Marcel, mainly out of curiosity in seeing what an unbiased projection that was not created to make the Yankees look better than they are would say.
It says this.
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% | |||||||||||||
| AL East | NYA | 92 | 70 | 785 | 682 | 45.3% | 20.3% | 10.4% | 76.0% | |||||||||||||
| AL East | BOS | 90 | 72 | 830 | 750 | 27.9% | 26.1% | 10.8% | 64.8% | |||||||||||||
| AL East | TAM | 88 | 74 | 717 | 646 | 23.7% | 21.2% | 12.2% | 57.1% | |||||||||||||
| AL East | TOR | 81 | 81 | 723 | 727 | 3.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 16.7% | |||||||||||||
| AL East | BAL | 70 | 92 | 694 | 806 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | |||||||||||||
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% | |||||||||||||
| AL Central | DET | 84 | 78 | 747 | 708 | 43.0% | 2.4% | 10.1% | 55.4% | |||||||||||||
| AL Central | CLE | 83 | 79 | 722 | 708 | 30.6% | 2.9% | 7.8% | 41.3% | |||||||||||||
| AL Central | CHA | 79 | 83 | 686 | 703 | 15.2% | 1.5% | 4.2% | 20.9% | |||||||||||||
| AL Central | KC | 79 | 83 | 691 | 714 | 10.8% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 16.9% | |||||||||||||
| AL Central | MIN | 68 | 94 | 693 | 813 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | |||||||||||||
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% | |||||||||||||
| AL West | LAA | 87 | 75 | 719 | 663 | 43.7% | 6.1% | 11.4% | 61.2% | |||||||||||||
| AL West | TEX | 87 | 75 | 765 | 707 | 38.2% | 6.9% | 13.4% | 58.6% | |||||||||||||
| AL West | OAK | 82 | 80 | 682 | 674 | 14.9% | 3.1% | 7.4% | 25.3% | |||||||||||||
| AL West | SEA | 76 | 86 | 649 | 689 | 3.2% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 5.5% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| NL East | PHI | 90 | 72 | 689 | 615 | 44.8% | 16.5% | 10.7% | 72.0% |
| NL East | ATL | 89 | 73 | 668 | 608 | 38.2% | 19.2% | 9.9% | 67.3% |
| NL East | WAS | 83 | 79 | 645 | 634 | 10.8% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 29.2% |
| NL East | FLA | 80 | 82 | 682 | 690 | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 16.3% |
| NL East | NYN | 74 | 88 | 630 | 680 | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 3.2% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| NL Central | CIN | 89 | 73 | 719 | 647 | 60.4% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 79.7% |
| NL Central | STL | 84 | 78 | 708 | 681 | 24.6% | 10.7% | 7.0% | 42.2% |
| NL Central | MIL | 81 | 81 | 678 | 672 | 13.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 27.5% |
| NL Central | PIT | 72 | 90 | 657 | 732 | 1.6% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 2.8% |
| NL Central | CHN | 70 | 92 | 668 | 761 | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% |
| NL Central | HOU | 66 | 96 | 617 | 749 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| NL West | COL | 85 | 77 | 749 | 711 | 32.1% | 6.4% | 10.9% | 49.4% |
| NL West | ARI | 85 | 77 | 685 | 656 | 30.8% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 48.9% |
| NL West | SF | 85 | 77 | 629 | 606 | 29.6% | 5.4% | 11.3% | 46.3% |
| NL West | LAN | 76 | 86 | 618 | 659 | 4.1% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 8.2% |
| NL West | SD | 75 | 87 | 608 | 653 | 3.4% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 6.4% |
Div: Percent of time team won division
WC 1: Percent of time team won first wild card
WC 2: Percent of time team won second wild card
We still don’t know if there will be a second wild card yet, so you can chop off that column and subtract that percentage from the team’s over playoff percentage.
Because Marcel regresses more heavily than other projections and because it assumes every one who hasn’t played in MLB projects as league average, you see a tighter spread here than you’ll see in other projected standings. The standard deviation for team wins in my last CAIRO projections was about 9. In this version it’s 7.1. That may be more realistic if you think about how little we really know about how good/bad players and teams are, even though what will actually happen in 2012 will show a much bigger spread more in line with other projected standings.
Here are the average win totals for the placings in each division and for the two wild cards.
| Div | Place | Avg W |
| AL East | 1 | 96 |
| AL East | 2 | 91 |
| AL East | 3 | 86 |
| AL East | 4 | 80 |
| AL East | 5 | 69 |
| Div | Avg W | |
| AL Central | 1 | 89 |
| AL Central | 2 | 83 |
| AL Central | 3 | 79 |
| AL Central | 4 | 75 |
| AL Central | 5 | 67 |
| Div | Avg W | |
| AL West | 1 | 92 |
| AL West | 2 | 86 |
| AL West | 3 | 81 |
| AL West | 4 | 74 |
| AL WC 1 | 91 | |
| AL WC2 | 88 | |
| Div | Avg W | |
| NL East | 1 | 94 |
| NL East | 2 | 88 |
| NL East | 3 | 83 |
| NL East | 4 | 78 |
| NL East | 5 | 72 |
| Div | Avg W | |
| NL Central | 1 | 92 |
| NL Central | 2 | 85 |
| NL Central | 3 | 80 |
| NL Central | 4 | 74 |
| NL Central | 5 | 69 |
| NL Central | 6 | 63 |
| Div | Avg W | |
| NL West | 1 | 91 |
| NL West | 2 | 85 |
| NL West | 3 | 81 |
| NL West | 4 | 77 |
| NL West | 5 | 71 |
| NL WC1 | 89 | |
| NL WC2 | 87 |
What this shows is that on average a team needed 96 wins to win the AL East, etc.,.
Some obvious things to consider would be:
- the difference between Yu Darvish (and other imports) and a league average pitcher
- prospects who project better than league average
- players who switched to parks that will affect their projections since Marcel does not park-adjust
Despite all that, the ordinal rankings seem reasonable. The only differences between this and CAIRO in that regard are that I have St. Louis ahead of Cincinnati and the Diamondbacks and Giants ahead of Colorado.
This is current through Francisco Cordero signing with Toronto, and assumes Prince Fielder at 1B and Miguel Cabrera playing a terrible version of 3B for Detroit in 70% of their games, and DHing in 25% of them.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
CAIRO 2012 v0.3 and Some Extremely Early and Completely Useless 2012 Projected Standings
I’m releasing CAIRO 2012 v 0.3 today which mainly fixes a problem with a handful of pitchers like Alexi Ogando and Ross Ohlendorf and moves players to new teams where applicable. I figure it’d be a good time to run some projected standings even though they are too early to be of any real value.
DISCLAIMER: This is very limited in telling us much about how 2012 will play out for a large number of reasons.
1) There are still a lot of roster changes coming. This may give us some sense of how the offseason has impacted teams to this point and it also shows us how things might look if nothing changed from now until April. Which won’t happen.
2) It’s too early to construct meaningful rosters for a lot of teams, so these projections will favor the teams that have essentially completed their 2012 rosters.
3) In addition to that, projection systems are inherently limited. They are designed to estimate a player’s true talent based on what they’ve done so far and also by factoring in things like age and how similar players have performed in the past. They will generally be in the ballpark for the general population of MLB players, but they can miss significantly on individual players which can obviously affect certain teams more heavily than others.
Anyway, using the depth charts from the wonderful MLB Depth Charts and includng playing time from players on the 40 man roster who don’t necessarily figure to be part of the the opening day 25 man rosters to account for organizational depth and playing out next season 100,000 times, here’s how CAIRO v0.3 sees things as of December 13, 2011. These were run with Aramis Ramirez as a Brewer, but I didn’t remove any of the non-tendered players from yesterday from their rosters.
| Date | 12/13/2011 | ||||||
| Iterations | 100000 | ||||||
| American League | |||||||
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Yankees | 94 | 68 | 862 | 740 | 59.0% | 16.8% | 75.9% |
| Red Sox | 91 | 71 | 868 | 763 | 31.1% | 26.1% | 57.2% |
| Rays | 85 | 77 | 717 | 654 | 9.5% | 11.8% | 21.4% |
| Blue Jays | 75 | 87 | 773 | 817 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| Orioles | 68 | 94 | 741 | 853 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Tigers | 89 | 73 | 780 | 703 | 54.3% | 4.7% | 59.0% |
| Indians | 87 | 75 | 751 | 696 | 40.8% | 5.9% | 46.6% |
| White Sox | 77 | 85 | 723 | 795 | 3.3% | 1.5% | 4.8% |
| Royals | 73 | 89 | 684 | 760 | 1.6% | 0.2% | 1.8% |
| Twins | 66 | 96 | 698 | 829 | 0.0% | - | - |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Rangers | 93 | 69 | 812 | 697 | 58.0% | 13.7% | 71.6% |
| Angels | 90 | 72 | 720 | 640 | 39.5% | 16.6% | 56.1% |
| Mariners | 77 | 85 | 653 | 668 | 2.3% | 2.0% | 4.2% |
| Athletics | 71 | 91 | 636 | 686 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| National League | |||||||
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Phillies | 92 | 70 | 681 | 598 | 60.6% | 10.5% | 71.1% |
| Braves | 87 | 75 | 711 | 662 | 24.9% | 13.8% | 38.7% |
| Marlins | 81 | 81 | 716 | 695 | 8.2% | 4.4% | 12.6% |
| Nationals | 80 | 82 | 665 | 668 | 4.9% | 3.2% | 8.1% |
| Mets | 76 | 86 | 669 | 710 | 1.4% | 1.6% | 3.0% |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Brewers | 92 | 70 | 700 | 646 | 52.5% | 14.3% | 66.7% |
| Cardinals | 90 | 72 | 708 | 648 | 36.8% | 19.3% | 56.2% |
| Reds | 84 | 78 | 724 | 704 | 10.1% | 10.8% | 20.9% |
| Cubs | 74 | 88 | 649 | 727 | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| Pirates | 70 | 92 | 656 | 758 | 0.4% | - | 0.4% |
| Astros | 60 | 102 | 569 | 759 | 0.0% | - | - |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Giants | 88 | 74 | 656 | 613 | 46.3% | 6.4% | 52.7% |
| Diamondbacks | 86 | 76 | 647 | 613 | 31.2% | 6.4% | 37.6% |
| Padres | 81 | 81 | 620 | 613 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 15.9% |
| Dodgers | 79 | 83 | 624 | 644 | 7.9% | 2.9% | 10.8% |
| Rockies | 76 | 86 | 726 | 776 | 3.4% | 0.6% | 4.0% |
The most shocking thing here is the Astros projecting to win 62 games IMO. I also am amused by the fact that the Marlins don’t really project any better than the Nationals despite all their largesse this offseason.
Also, be aware that I haven’t accounted for the stupid new second wild card thing yet, since I am not certain that it will be implemented for this upcoming season, and rremember that this is more for fun than utility and take it in the appropriate spirit.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Lohud: Yankees take right hander in Rule 5
In this morning’s Rule 5 draft, the Yankees took RHP Brad Meyers from the Nationals.
The Yankees lost no one.
...UPDATE, 10:23 a.m.: There’s a report from Kansas City that the Royals have traded their pick, LHP Cesar Cabral out of the Red Sox system, to the Yankees.
I have to say I know nothing about either player. I’d assume Cabral is an ace-in-training given his prior organization, but I’ll post their CAIRO projections in a minute.
Here you go.
| mlbamid | Last | First | Age | Team | Lg | Role | G | GS | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | BF | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| 455122 | Meyers | Brad | 27 | NYA | AL | SP | 22 | 22 | 8 | 6 | 125 | 140 | 67 | 61 | 15 | 25 | 83 | 524 | 4.80 | 4.42 | 3.98 | 1.9 |
| 501627 | Cabral | Cesar | 23 | NYA | AL | RP | 50 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 87 | 47 | 43 | 7 | 35 | 52 | 340 | 5.55 | 5.13 | 4.39 | 0.0 |
Meyers doesn’t have overpowering velocity, but has very good control.
Fastball: Sits in the 92-94 mph range at times, but he sits comfortably in the 89-91 mph range with some nice sink
Sounds like a Darrell Rasner type, and profiles similarly. That’s not a bad thing to have around for depth at the very least. I think the CAIRO may be a little optimistic, but seems like he’s a nice gamble to take.
Cabral was taken in them 2010 Rule 5 draft by Tampa Bay before being returned to Boston, so he’s apparently someone who’s interesting as a lefty arm out of the bullpen (where he’s pitched the last two years). His projection isn’t great, but he appears to have decent stuff.
Scouting Report: Lefty with a solid frame and a smooth delivery. Pitches exclusively from the stretch. Fastball sits between 88-92 mph and tops out at 95 mph. Secondary pitches include an excellent 81-83 mph circle changeup, a mid-70s slurvey curveball, and a sharp 79-82 mph slider. Gets a lot of swings and misses with his changeup, which has nice downward movement
In other news.
Foxsports:Source: Darvish to be posted Thursday
Japanese right-hander Yu Darvish will be posted on Thursday, taking the first step toward pitching in the majors next season, according to a source familiar with his plans.
Early Thursday, Darvish confirmed on his blog that he will use the system. ‘‘I have decided to use the posting system,’’ he wrote. ‘‘I wanted to tell my fans directly, so that is why I am posting this on my blog.’‘
The sudden availability of Darvish, a potential top-of-the-rotation starter, will be a major attraction for clubs frustrated by the lack of elite starters in this year’s free-agent market and the high asking prices on quality pitchers in trades.
Also.
Jon Heyman’s Twitter: [C.J.] Wilson signs with angels $75M 5 yrs
That Wilson deal looks like a bargain. I’m a bit surprised no one else would go beyond that. Seems like a better value than what Darvish is eventually going to cost for probably similar production.
Yahoo! Tim Brown: Pujols agrees to terms with Angels on landmark deal.
Pujols should fill the massive hole left by trading Jeff Mathis.
Monday, November 21, 2011
TGS NY: Bobby V. to Boston?: Be afraid, Yankees fans—be very afraid
I think that even if the Red Sox don’t do another thing this off-season, if they give Bobby Valentine the keys to the manager’s office, they immediately become a lot more dangerous.
Yeah, I’m quivering in my boots here. Looks like the 1927 Yankees are in jeopardy once again.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
TGS NY: Jorge Posada: Return won’t happen
“It’s not gonna happen,” Posada said Wednesday night at a Manhattan function for The Jorge Posada Foundation. “I don’t think there is even a percentage of a chance that I can come back.”
The free agent says he’s not bitter with the organization he has played for his entire career. He said five or six teams have shown interest in his services.
The more I think about it, the less I’d mind if Posada tried to play another year and got a job somewhere. It won’t take away what he did in pinstripes, and it allows him a chance to go out on his terms. I think he’s still got something left, and if circumstances allowed it, it’d be great to see him get one more game at the Stadium, even if it came in a visitor’s uniform. Perhaps there will be real fans in attendance instead of the stuffed suits that attended ALDS Game 5 and ignored the fact that it was likely Posada’s last game in pinstripes.
On an unrelated note, scary news out of Venezuela, where Nationals’ catcher Wilson Ramos has been kidnapped. There have been a few kidnapping related incidents involving MLB players’ families including Henry Blanco’s brother, Yorvit Torrealba’s son and Victor Zambrano’s mother. Let’s hope for a happy ending here.
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
NYDailyNews: Yankees’ interest quickly cools on Texas Rangers’ C.J. Wilson
There had been plenty of talk about the Yankees’ interest in [C.J. Wilson], but most of that centered on the Bombers’ nightmare scenario that had Sabathia trading in his pinstripes for a new uniform.
Now that Sabathia is signed up for five more years, Wilson doesn’t seem to be of much interest to the Yankees.
“They don’t think he’s worth the money he’ll get,” one baseball insider said last week. “He just doesn’t have the track record.”
And the games begin.
More than likely, the Yankees are interested in Wilson. But with CC locked up, the pressure to land a top starter isn’t as great. I actually expect C.J. to stay in Texas, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Yankee swoop in with a better offer.
Also, Yankees talk extension with Russell Martin.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
ESPN: Yanks meet in Tampa, talk CC Sabathia
TAMPA, Fla.—The New York Yankees held their annual organization meeting on Wednesday, and the main topic of discussion was figuring out a way to keep CC Sabathia in pinstripes.
“We’re close to formulating a plan that we think is fair to everyone involved,” said a high-ranking team official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “The idea is to get this done before he goes out on the open market.’‘
Sabathia, who just completed the third year of his seven-year, $161 million contract, has an opt-out clause that allows him to declare himself a free agent four days after the completion of the World Series.
Ideally, the weather in St. Louis keeps the World Series from ever being completed.
Thursday, October 6, 2011
Yankees.com: With no late magic, Yanks’ season ends
NEW YORK—From the first morning the Yankees unzip their bags and begin preparing for the regular season, there is one common goal they can all agree upon. For the second time in as many years, they have fallen short of it.
The Yankees’ dreams of a 28th World Series championship were packed into winter hibernation on Thursday, as the Tigers defeated New York, 3-2, in Game 5 of the American League Division Series.
Detroit became the first visiting club to celebrate clinching a postseason series on the field at the new Yankee Stadium, moving on to face the Texas Rangers in the AL Championship Series opening on Saturday.
Congratulations to the Tigers. Have fun getting swept by the Rangers.
Friday, September 30, 2011
2011 ALDS Preview: Tigers vs. Yankees
The first obstacle in the quest to end the dreaded curse of The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske is the Detroit Tigers.
Seriously, it has been 694 days, 11 hours, 15 minutes, and 45 seconds since the New York Yankees have won a World Series. We have suffered long enough, haven’t we? When will this infernal madness end?
So how big of an obstacle are the Tigers? Let’s take a look.
First, I’ll acknowledge the obvious fact that the Tigers played in and won the AL Central which is probably the weakest division in the AL.
I’ll then say that it doesn’t matter. This is a very good team, and it’s not a stretch to envision them representing the AL in the World Series.
If you read the Rays/Rangers preview you can skip the next paragraph.
I don’t particularly find any series previews that focus on what a team did in the preceding full season of much use. It doesn’t really matter if a team scored 5.2 runs per game and allowed 4.2 runs per game over the preceding six months. Rosters change, injuries happen, players come and go, talent changes, and player and team performance is often subject to fluctuations that are not predictive. What I want to know is how many runs will the team and roster as currently configured score and allow. Because of that, for these previews I’ll be using projections in lieu of 2011 stats. Despite having my own system in CAIRO, I’m going to use the Hardball Times’s Oliver forecasts since I haven’t had the time to re-run CAIRO for this year. Oliver is updated weekly during the season and includes 2011 MLEs for players who saw time in the minors.
The biggest consideration in trying to see how any series may shape up is allocating playing time. So here are depth charts for the two teams, based on the assumption that each team will make 25 outs at the plate over 5 games and that pitchers will combine for 45 innings. Since I didn’t have official postseason rosters while writing parts of these, some of it is guesswork and is subject to change.
Here are the Oliver projections for the Tigers’ postseason position players.
| Name | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Jackson, Austin | CF | 21 | .263/.315/.374 | 14 | 2.24 | .303 | .311 | .300 |
| Kelly, Don | 3B | 21 | .268/.312/.413 | 14 | 2.34 | .314 | .286 | .317 |
| Young, Delmon | LF | 21 | .283/.314/.446 | 14 | 2.52 | .327 | .344 | .320 |
| Cabrera, Miguel | 1B | 21 | .334/.422/.602 | 12 | 4.11 | .435 | .455 | .429 |
| Martinez, Victor | C | 21 | .312/.365/.480 | 13 | 3.08 | .367 | .372 | .364 |
| Peralta, Jhonny | SS | 21 | .270/.324/.426 | 14 | 2.50 | .326 | .339 | .321 |
| Avila, Alex | C | 21 | .270/.351/.456 | 14 | 2.89 | .350 | .327 | .356 |
| Dirks, Andy | RF | 21 | .265/.311/.415 | 14 | 2.45 | .315 | .294 | .318 |
| Santiago, Ramon | 2B | 21 | .276/.319/.394 | 14 | 2.30 | .307 | .304 | .308 |
| Starter Total | 189 | .282/.337/.444 | 125 | 24.42 | .338 | .338 | .338 | |
| Bench | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Betemit, Wilson | IF | 0 | .259/.323/.424 | 0 | 0.00 | .325 | .298 | .334 |
| Ordonez, Magglio | OF | 0 | .282/.344/.412 | 0 | 0.00 | .334 | .352 | .329 |
| Raburn, Ryan | OF | 0 | .268/.317/.465 | 0 | 0.00 | .334 | .349 | .323 |
| Rhymes, Will | 2B | 0 | .272/.326/.361 | 0 | 0.00 | .303 | .283 | .307 |
| Inge, Brandon | 3B | 0 | .230/.304/.384 | 0 | 0.00 | .303 | .328 | .294 |
| Worth, Danny | IF | 0 | .229/.284/.328 | 0 | 0.00 | .272 | .283 | .263 |
| Kelly, Don | UT | 0 | .268/.312/.413 | 0 | 0.00 | .314 | .286 | .317 |
| Santos, Omir | C | 0 | .228/.255/.333 | 0 | 0.00 | .255 | .264 | .250 |
| Bench Total | ||||||||
| Team Total | 189 | .282/.337/.444 | 125 | 24.42 | .338 | .338 | .338 |
Outs: Outs at the plate (assumes 25 outs per 9 innings, calculated as (1 - OBP) times PA + GDP per PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
vs. L/R: Projected wOBA splits vs. LHP/RHP using regressed platoon splits
Rather than guess about how the Tigers may allocate playing time, I just gave the expected starting lineup all 125 outs.
The biggest problem here is Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera’s pretty much the best hitter in the AL. In fact, only one player has been a better hitter than him over the last three years, and that’s Albert Pujols. That projected wOBA of .455 vs. LHP is terrifying for Game 1. The Yankees probably don’t have much room for error facing Verlander, so the Cabrera/Sabathia matchup is probably going to be the one to watch. You can see by the OBP of the rest of the team that keeping people like Austin Jackson, Don Kelly and Delmon Young off the bases in front of Cabrera is going to be imperative.
The Tigers overall don’t have much of a projected platoon split, so the Yankees’ lack of left-handed pitching shouldn’t be a big deal.
I don’t think any Tigers fans would disagree that the Yankees’ lineup is better. Their hopes are going to lay on their pitching staff, and that’s not a bad position to be in.
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Verlander, Justin | SP1 | 14 | 4.8 | 3.11 | 2.89 | 3.05 |
| Fister, Doug | SP2 | 6 | 2.6 | 3.94 | 3.67 | 3.49 |
| Scherzer, Max | SP3 | 6 | 3.1 | 4.61 | 4.10 | 3.98 |
| Porcello, Rick | SP4 | 5 | 2.7 | 4.88 | 4.51 | 4.35 |
| Penny, Brad | SP5 | 0 | 0.0 | 5.43 | 4.85 | 4.65 |
| Starter Total | 31 | 13.3 | 3.85 | 3.54 | 3.52 | |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Valverde, Jose | CL | 3 | 1.3 | 3.90 | 3.61 | 3.72 |
| Benoit, Joaquin | SU | 3 | 1.1 | 3.25 | 3.01 | 3.10 |
| Alburquerque, Al | SU | 2 | 0.9 | 4.20 | 3.89 | 3.71 |
| Coke, Phil | SU | 2 | 1.0 | 4.40 | 4.07 | 3.68 |
| Pauley, David | MR | 2 | 1.1 | 4.76 | 4.41 | 4.44 |
| Perry, Ryan | MR | 1 | 0.5 | 4.61 | 4.27 | 4.12 |
| Schlereth, Daniel | MR | 1 | 0.5 | 4.85 | 4.49 | 4.31 |
| Marte, Luis | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.26 | 4.87 | 4.97 |
| Below, Duane | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.49 | 5.08 | 5.33 |
| LR | 0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Reliever Total | 14 | 6.4 | 4.12 | 3.81 | 3.75 | |
| Team Total | 45 | 19.7 | 3.93 | 3.62 | 3.59 |
RA: Runs allowed per 9, calculated as 1.08*ERA
ERA: Earned runs allowed per 9
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
Justin Verlander’s obviously the man here. He’s been the best pitcher in baseball this year and is a worthy MVP candidate. He’s backed up by mid-season acquisition Doug Fister, who’s been sublime for the Tigers. The Tigers are 9-2 in his 11 starts, and he’s pitched 70.1 innings and allowed just 19 runs. He’s faced 273 batters and walked 5 of them. Seriously. He’s probably not quite that good, but he’d project as the second-best starter on the Yankees.
Jim Leyland has said that he will not pitch Verlander on three days rest, so I’m giving Rick Porcello five innings. I don’t know if things would change if the Tigers go down 2-1. If they did that, they could throw Fister in Game 5 and not use Porcello in the rotation at all.
The Tigers’ defense has been about average overall, not much different than the Yankees. So I’m not going to bother with talking about that.
So, how about the Yankees’ projections?
| Name | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 22 | .306/.363/.416 | 14 | 2.83 | .345 | .369 | .337 |
| Granderson, Curtis | CF | 22 | .259/.342/.496 | 14 | 3.24 | .358 | .314 | .374 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 22 | .312/.359/.511 | 14 | 3.38 | .374 | .358 | .381 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 18 | .289/.367/.527 | 11 | 2.89 | .382 | .389 | .380 |
| Teixeira, Mark | 1B | 22 | .265/.357/.498 | 14 | 3.29 | .369 | .380 | .364 |
| Swisher, Nick | RF | 21 | .271/.364/.475 | 13 | 3.03 | .364 | .375 | .359 |
| Posada, Jorge | DH | 16 | .259/.345/.448 | 10 | 2.12 | .347 | .347 | .347 |
| Martin, Russell | C | 21 | .252/.345/.380 | 14 | 2.39 | .326 | .344 | .320 |
| Gardner, Brett | LF | 19 | .269/.353/.376 | 12 | 2.34 | .326 | .306 | .332 |
| Starter Total | 183 | .277/.355/.460 | 118 | 25.50 | .355 | .354 | .355 | |
| Bench | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Montero, Jesus | DH | 4 | .278/.329/.483 | 3 | 0.54 | .348 | .361 | .340 |
| Jones, Andruw | OF | 2 | .251/.344/.502 | 1 | 0.30 | .363 | .381 | .357 |
| Nunez, Eduardo | IF | 0 | .278/.308/.381 | 0 | 0.00 | .301 | .302 | .300 |
| Chavez, Eric | 3B | 4 | .245/.296/.355 | 3 | 0.38 | .288 | .257 | .300 |
| Romine, Austin | C | 0 | .246/.289/.364 | 0 | 0.00 | .287 | .300 | .283 |
| Dickerson, Chris | OF | 0 | .239/.315/.341 | 0 | 0.00 | .295 | .272 | .299 |
| Pena, Ramiro | IF | 0 | .239/.283/.327 | 0 | 0.00 | .269 | .256 | .273 |
| Cervelli, Francisco | C | 0 | .263/.314/.365 | 0 | 0.00 | .298 | .310 | .293 |
| Bench Total | 10 | .260/.319/.435 | 7 | 1.22 | .327 | .323 | .327 | |
| Team Total | 193 | .276/.353/.458 | 125 | 26.72 | .353 | .352 | .354 |
I’ve relegated Jesus Montero to pinch-hitting status, since DH vs. LHP is effectively a non-position vs. Detroit. I suppose we may see him pinch-hit for Posada if a one of Phil Coke/Daniel Schlereth is on the mound. Or he could get a start if Posada doesn’t look so good. Statistically, Posada’s projection vs. RHP is better than Montero’s so I suppose it’s the logical approach. I’m also not sanguine on A-Rod playing every inning so I’ve given Chavez four PA, and I’m assuming we may see Andruw Jones pinch-hit for TSBG in a late situation vs. a LHP where an XBH would be of additional benefit.
Oliver thinks the Yankees have the best offense in the postseason, and I’d agree with that. Unfortunately, the Yankees have to pitch too.
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Sabathia, CC | SP1 | 14 | 5.8 | 3.70 | 3.43 | 3.28 |
| Nova, Ivan | SP2 | 12 | 6.4 | 4.77 | 4.36 | 4.33 |
| Garcia, Freddy | SP3 | 5 | 2.6 | 4.60 | 4.36 | 4.33 |
| Colon, Bartolo | SP4 | 0 | 0.0 | 4.82 | 4.04 | 3.97 |
| Burnett, A.J. | SP5 | 0 | 0.0 | 5.21 | 4.82 | 4.49 |
| Hughes, Phil | SP6 | 0 | 0.0 | 4.45 | 4.12 | 4.17 |
| Betances, Dellin | SP7 | 0 | 0.0 | 5.36 | 4.96 | 4.83 |
| Brackman, Andrew | SP8 | 0 | 0.0 | 6.80 | 6.30 | 5.88 |
| Starter Total | 31 | 14.7 | 4.26 | 3.94 | 3.86 | |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Rivera, Mariano | CL | 3 | 1.0 | 3.03 | 2.81 | 2.89 |
| Robertson, David | SU | 3 | 1.2 | 3.75 | 3.47 | 3.05 |
| Soriano, Rafael | SU | 2 | 0.8 | 3.61 | 3.34 | 3.64 |
| Logan, Boone | SU | 2 | 1.0 | 4.32 | 4.00 | 3.77 |
| Wade, Cory | MR | 2 | 1.0 | 4.38 | 4.06 | 4.09 |
| Ayala, Luis | MR | 2 | 1.0 | 4.50 | 4.17 | 3.92 |
| Noesi, Hector | MR | 0 | 0.0 | 4.59 | 4.25 | 4.03 |
| Proctor, Scott | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.78 | 5.35 | 5.21 |
| Laffey, Aaron | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.56 | 5.15 | 4.59 |
| Kontos, George | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.38 | 4.98 | 5.02 |
| Reliever Total | 14 | 6.0 | 3.86 | 3.57 | 3.48 | |
| Team Total | 45 | 20.7 | 4.14 | 3.82 | 3.74 |
The assumption here is CC on three days rest. I’m assuming that Burnett and Hughes won’t pitch even though they’re on the roster, but if they do pitch their innings would probably just replace Ayala or Wade’s and it shouldn’t make a big difference.
The Yankees probably have the worst projected rotation in the postseason. CC’s as good as anyone, but after that there’s some concern about Nova and Garcia. I do think that projection is a little bearish on Nova since we have evidence that his new slider has made a meaningful improvement that wouldn’t be captured in a projection system.
Nova pre-slider: 226 BF, 9.3% BB/BF, 11.5% K/BF, 5.19 RA, 4.29 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 4.92 xFIP
Nova post-slider: 278 BF, 7.5% BB/BF, 15.1% K/BF, 3.52 RA, 3.44 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 4.03 xFIP
The Yankee bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this year, and although the projections think most of them pitched above their head they’re probably still better than Detroit’s from top to bottom. So the Yankees should be able to mitigate their slight disadvantage in the rotation by using the relievers aggressively. I can imagine that any David Robertson/Miguel Cabrera battles are going to be must-see baseball.
These depth charts say this.
| Team | Gms | RS | RA | wpct | p162 |
| DET | 5 | 24.4 | 19.7 | .600 | 97 |
| NYA | 5 | 26.7 | 20.7 | .620 | 100 |
If I play the series out 10,000 times in my Monte Carlo simulator I get these odds.
Yankees: 53.9%
Tigers: 46.1%
If the Tigers do decide to use Verlander in Game 4 and Fister in Game 5 they improve to about a .612 wpct/99 win team. Basically, those two teams are equivalent. The Yankees get the slight edge of one extra home game if necessary. In that case the odds look like this.
Yankees: 51.9%
Tigers: 48.1%
Thursday, September 29, 2011
2011 ALDS Preview: Rays vs. Rangers
Who will be facing the Tigers in the ALCS this year? Let’s see what the numbers say.
I don’t particularly find any series previews that focus on what a team did in the preceding full season of much use. It doesn’t really matter if a team scored 5.2 runs per game and allowed 4.2 runs per game over the preceding six months. Rosters change, injuries happen, players come and go, talent changes, and player and team performance is often subject to fluctuations that are not predictive. What I want to know is how many runs will the team and roster as currently configured score and allow?
Because of that, for these previews I’ll be using projections in lieu of 2011 stats. Despite having my own system in CAIRO, I’m going to use the Hardball Times’s Oliver forecasts since I haven’t had the time to re-run CAIRO for this year. Oliver is updated weekly during the season and includes 2011 MLEs for players who saw time in the minors.
The biggest consideration in trying to see how any series may shape up is allocating playing time. So here are depth charts for the two teams, based on the assumption that each team will make 25 outs at the plate over 5 games. Since we don’t have finalized postseason rosters, these are guess-timates and are subject to change.
| Name | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA |
| Jennings, Desmond | LF | 21 | .266/.334/.415 | 14 | 2.66 | .328 |
| Upton, B.J. | CF | 21 | .235/.328/.402 | 14 | 2.57 | .323 |
| Longoria, Evan | 3B | 21 | .268/.365/.510 | 13 | 3.30 | .376 |
| Zobrist, Ben | 2B | 21 | .261/.358/.437 | 13 | 2.87 | .349 |
| Damon, Johnny | DH | 21 | .272/.343/.430 | 14 | 2.76 | .339 |
| Joyce, Matt | RF | 21 | .263/.349/.463 | 14 | 2.94 | .352 |
| Kotchman, Casey | 1B | 20 | .271/.335/.395 | 13 | 2.29 | .324 |
| Jaso, John | C | 15 | .247/.329/.357 | 10 | 1.53 | .309 |
| Rodriguez, Sean | SS | 18 | .237/.315/.402 | 12 | 2.04 | .314 |
| Starter Total | 179 | .259/.340/.426 | 118 | 22.96 | .336 | |
| Bench | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA |
| Ruggiano, Justin | OF | 0 | .250/.301/.395 | 0 | 0.00 | .304 |
| Shoppach, Kelly | C | 3 | .208/.303/.379 | 2 | 0.30 | .302 |
| Johnson, Elliot | IF | 0 | .247/.286/.384 | 0 | 0.00 | .286 |
| Fuld, Sam | OF | 2 | .250/.322/.357 | 1 | 0.21 | .304 |
| Guyer, Brandon | OF | 0 | .281/.325/.444 | 0 | 0.00 | .330 |
| Canzler, Russ | IF | 0 | .263/.328/.450 | 0 | 0.00 | .337 |
| Lobaton, Jose | C | 0 | .241/.316/.365 | 0 | 0.00 | .303 |
| Brignac, Reid | SS | 5 | .235/.276/.336 | 4 | 0.39 | .269 |
| Bench Total | 10 | .230/.293/.352 | 7 | 0.91 | .286 | |
| Team Total | 189 | .257/.338/.422 | 125 | 23.86 | .334 |
| Name | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA |
| Kinsler, Ian | 2B | 20 | .262/.342/.458 | 13 | 2.78 | .346 |
| Andrus, Elvis | SS | 20 | .271/.322/.344 | 14 | 1.99 | .296 |
| Hamilton, Josh | LF | 20 | .313/.358/.544 | 13 | 3.30 | .383 |
| Cruz, Nelson | RF | 20 | .282/.334/.543 | 13 | 3.15 | .370 |
| Young, Michael | DH | 20 | .312/.356/.471 | 13 | 2.82 | .358 |
| Beltre, Adrian | 3B | 20 | .295/.333/.513 | 13 | 2.93 | .360 |
| Napoli, Mike | C | 20 | .286/.362/.559 | 13 | 3.34 | .390 |
| Moreland, Mitch | 1B | 20 | .274/.334/.444 | 13 | 2.55 | .337 |
| Chavez, Endy | CF | 17 | .282/.312/.392 | 12 | 1.80 | .304 |
| Starter Total | 177 | .287/.340/.477 | 117 | 24.65 | .350 | |
| Bench | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA |
| Murphy, David | OF | 4 | .279/.334/.428 | 3 | 0.50 | .333 |
| Martin, Leonys | OF | 2 | .265/.313/.374 | 1 | 0.21 | .302 |
| Gentry, Craig | OF | 2 | .265/.322/.360 | 1 | 0.21 | .303 |
| German, Esteban | IF | 1 | .271/.343/.366 | 1 | 0.12 | .318 |
| Torrealba, Yorvit | C | 3 | .271/.320/.385 | 2 | 0.32 | .310 |
| Blanco, Andres | C | 0 | .263/.295/.362 | 0 | 0.00 | .285 |
| Treanor, Matt | C | 0 | .223/.307/.321 | 0 | 0.00 | .284 |
| Bench Total | 12 | .272/.326/.392 | 8 | 1.36 | .316 | |
| Team Total | 189 | .286/.339/.471 | 125 | 26.01 | .348 |
Outs: Outs at the plate (assumes 25 outs per 9 innings, calculated as (1 - OBP) times PA + GDP per PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
vs. L/R: Projected wOBA splits vs. LHP/RHP using regressed platoon splits
These tables just show the primary lineup and potential bench players, with a PA estimate. That PA estimate is used to calculate how outs the players will make and how many runs they will provide (BR). PA are added to get the team to 125 outs for a five game series, and then we have an estimate for how many runs the team would project to score.
We can do the same thing with the pitching staffs, allocating 45 innings to see how many runs they’d project to give up.
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Niemann, Jeff | SP1 | 6 | 2.7 | 4.11 | 3.95 | 4.11 |
| Shields, James | SP2 | 7 | 3.1 | 4.03 | 3.70 | 3.68 |
| Price, David | SP3 | 7 | 3.0 | 3.84 | 3.41 | 3.50 |
| Hellickson, Jeremy | SP4 | 6 | 2.6 | 3.85 | 3.55 | 3.97 |
| Davis, Wade | SP5 | 2 | 1.0 | 4.61 | 4.34 | 4.51 |
| Moore, Matt | SP6 | 2 | 1.0 | 4.57 | 4.23 | 4.10 |
| SP7 | 0 | 0.0 | ||||
| SP8 | 0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Starter Total | 30 | 13.5 | 4.04 | 3.73 | 3.87 | |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Farnsworth, Kyle | CL | 3 | 1.2 | 3.53 | 3.27 | 3.23 |
| Peralta, Joel | SU | 3 | 1.1 | 3.35 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Cruz, Juan | SU | 2 | 1.1 | 4.75 | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| McGee, Jake | SU | 2 | 1.0 | 4.56 | 4.22 | 4.03 |
| Gomes, Brandon | MR | 2 | 0.9 | 4.21 | 3.90 | 3.71 |
| Ramos, Cesar | MR | 2 | 1.2 | 5.18 | 4.80 | 4.43 |
| Howell, J.P. | MR | 1 | 0.5 | 4.64 | 4.30 | 4.08 |
| De La Rosa, Dane | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.03 | 4.66 | 4.40 |
| Sonnanstine, Andy | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.43 | 5.03 | 4.88 |
| 0.0 | ||||||
| Reliever Total | 15 | 7.0 | 4.18 | 3.87 | 3.83 | |
| Team Total | 45 | 20.4 | 4.09 | 3.78 | 3.85 |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Wilson, C.J. | SP1 | 14 | 5.7 | 3.67 | 3.33 | 3.27 |
| Holland, Derek | SP2 | 11 | 5.5 | 4.51 | 4.24 | 4.26 |
| Harrison, Matt | SP3 | 6 | 2.8 | 4.25 | 3.97 | 4.04 |
| Lewis, Colby | SP4 | 1 | 0.4 | 3.82 | 3.51 | 3.74 |
| Ogando, Alexi | SP5 | 2 | 0.8 | 3.77 | 3.35 | 3.44 |
| Feldman, Scott | SP6 | 0 | 0.0 | 4.82 | 4.40 | 4.47 |
| Hamburger, Mark | SP7 | 0 | 0.0 | 5.17 | 4.79 | 4.97 |
| SP8 | 0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Starter Total | 34 | 15.3 | 4.06 | 3.74 | 3.75 | |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Feliz, Neftali | CL | 3 | 1.2 | 3.51 | 3.25 | 3.27 |
| Adams, Mike | SU | 2 | 0.7 | 3.06 | 2.83 | 2.95 |
| Uehara, Koji | SU | 2 | 0.7 | 3.07 | 2.84 | 2.98 |
| Gonzalez, Michael | SU | 1 | 0.5 | 4.36 | 4.04 | 4.00 |
| Oliver, Darren | MR | 2 | 0.8 | 3.42 | 3.17 | 3.12 |
| Lowe, Mark | MR | 1 | 0.5 | 4.45 | 4.12 | 4.01 |
| Tateyama, Yoshinori | MR | 0 | 0.0 | 3.80 | 3.52 | 3.35 |
| Valdez, Merkin | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.43 | 5.03 | 4.36 |
| Kirkman, Michael | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.36 | 4.96 | 4.53 |
| 0.0 | ||||||
| Reliever Total | 11 | 4.3 | 3.49 | 3.24 | 3.27 | |
| Team Total | 45 | 19.6 | 3.92 | 3.62 | 3.63 |
RA: Runs allowed per 9, calculated as 1.08*ERA
ERA: Earned runs allowed per 9
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
We don’t have etched in stone rotations for this series. All I know for certain is that C.J. Wilson will start Game 1 for Texas, and that it’s likely Jeff Niemann gets the ball in Game 1 for the Rays. The Rangers may use Alexi Ogando as a starter but I’ve got him as a reliever for now.
Given these assumptions for playing time, we can then use the runs scored and runs allowed projections to get a Pythagenpat winning percentage which gives us an idea of how strong a team is in the context of this series.
| Team | Gms | RS | RA | wpct | p162 |
| TB | 5 | 23.9 | 20.4 | .572 | 93 |
| TEX | 5 | 26.0 | 19.6 | .631 | 102 |
RS: Projected runs scored
RA: Projected runs allowed
wpct: Pythagenpat winning percentage
p162: # of wins per 162 games using wpct
Oliver LOOOVES Texas. I don’t know if they’re better than Philly in Oliver, but they’re better than everyone in the AL. So, running this matchup through a Monte Carlo simulator gives me these odds.
Texas: 59.1%
Rays: 40.9%
I’ll look at Yankees/Tigers tomorrow.
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Yankees.com: FINAL: Rays 8, Yankees 7
Minutes after the Red Sox fell to the Orioles in Baltimore, Evan Longoria lined a walk-off homer down the left-field line to clinch the Wild Card for the Rays.
What a bizarre night of conflicted emotions.
Sportsday DFW: With home-field advantage on line, Rangers plan on bringing “A” game for season final
With one game left, the Rangers could still end up playing any of three teams:
• If the Rangers win, they will return home to play the wild card winner, which may not be determined until Thursday. Boston and Tampa Bay enter the final game tied. If both teams have the same result on Wednesday, they will play a tiebreaker game Thursday in Tampa.
• If the Rangers lose and Detroit loses, Texas will still hold home field advantage. The Tigers start their game with Cleveland at 6 p.m. CT, an hour before the first pitch of the Rangers-Angels game.
•If the Rangers lose and Detroit wins, the Rangers will head to New York to face the New York Yankees on Friday.
I think Texas is a better team than Detroit, even though the Yankees handled them pretty well this year. Detroit is probably a more difficult team in a five game series than they’d be in a seven game series, but I don’t think that pushes them past Texas..
I suppose I really don’t care who the Yankees face. I can see them beating anyone and losing to anyone. Both Detroit and Texas are good teams that pose a potential obstacle.
The only thing I care about is that whichever of the teams isn’t facing the Yankees is facing Tampa Bay.
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
What are the AL Wild Card Odds as of Today
According to Baseball Prospectus, the Red Sox are still favored to win the wild card over the Rays, 55.1% to 44.9%. This is based on assumed team strengths of .600 for the Yankees, .562 for the Red Sox, .528 for the Rays and .434 for the Orioles.
The first and most obvious problem here is assuming that a Yankee team that’s not playing for anything is going to be the equivalent of a 97 win team, particularly with them already announcing they won’t be pitching any pitchers that are going to be on the postseason roster in tomorrow’s game. Similarly, we have enough information to look at all four teams and see how strong they really may be over the next two games to see if the odds change appreciably.
I’m going to use the format below when I start my postseason previews. I’m using The Hardball Times’s Oliver forecasts, since I haven’t had time to re-run CAIRO for 2011. These projections are the most up-to-date ones (updated weekly) and include 2011 MLEs, so I think they’re solid. These were last updated on Monday.
First, here’s a rough stab at the teams I’d expect the Yankees and Rays to field over the next two days.
| Name | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 5 | .306/.363/.416 | 3 | 0.64 | .345 | .369 | .337 |
| Granderson, Curtis | CF | 5 | .259/.342/.496 | 3 | 0.74 | .358 | .314 | .374 |
| Teixeira, Mark | 1B | 5 | .265/.357/.498 | 3 | 0.75 | .369 | .380 | .364 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 5 | .289/.367/.527 | 3 | 0.80 | .382 | .389 | .380 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 5 | .312/.359/.511 | 3 | 0.77 | .374 | .358 | .381 |
| Swisher, Nick | RF | 5 | .271/.364/.475 | 3 | 0.72 | .364 | .375 | .359 |
| Montero, Jesus | DH | 5 | .278/.329/.483 | 3 | 0.67 | .348 | .361 | .340 |
| Martin, Russell | C | 5 | .252/.345/.380 | 3 | 0.57 | .326 | .344 | .320 |
| Gardner, Brett | LF | 5 | .269/.353/.376 | 3 | 0.62 | .326 | .306 | .332 |
| Starter Total | 45 | .278/.353/.463 | 29 | 6.28 | .355 | .355 | .354 | |
| Bench | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Posada, Jorge | DH | 5 | .259/.345/.448 | 3 | 0.66 | .347 | .347 | .347 |
| Jones, Andruw | OF | 4 | .251/.344/.502 | 3 | 0.60 | .363 | .381 | .357 |
| Nunez, Eduardo | IF | 5 | .278/.308/.381 | 3 | 0.51 | .301 | .302 | .300 |
| Chavez, Eric | 3B | 4 | .245/.296/.355 | 3 | 0.38 | .288 | .257 | .300 |
| Romine, Austin | C | 4 | .246/.289/.364 | 3 | 0.38 | .287 | .300 | .283 |
| Dickerson, Chris | OF | 4 | .239/.315/.341 | 3 | 0.40 | .295 | .272 | .299 |
| Pena, Ramiro | IF | 4 | .239/.283/.327 | 3 | 0.32 | .269 | .256 | .273 |
| Cervelli, Francisco | C | 0 | .263/.314/.365 | 0 | 0.00 | .298 | .310 | .293 |
| Bench Total | 30 | .252/.312/.389 | 21 | 3.24 | .308 | .304 | .309 | |
| Team Total | 75 | .268/.337/.433 | 50 | 9.52 | .336 | .335 | .336 |
Outs: Outs at the plate (assumes 25 outs per 9 innings, calculated as (1 - OBP) times PA + GDP per PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
vs. L/R: Projected wOBA splits vs. LHP/RHP using regressed platoon splits
| Name | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Jennings, Desmond | LF | 8 | .266/.334/.415 | 5 | 1.01 | .328 | .340 | .321 |
| Upton, B.J. | CF | 8 | .235/.328/.402 | 5 | 0.98 | .323 | .339 | .316 |
| Longoria, Evan | 3B | 8 | .268/.365/.510 | 5 | 1.26 | .376 | .393 | .369 |
| Zobrist, Ben | 2B | 8 | .261/.358/.437 | 5 | 1.09 | .349 | .357 | .345 |
| Damon, Johnny | DH | 8 | .272/.343/.430 | 5 | 1.05 | .339 | .322 | .346 |
| Joyce, Matt | RF | 8 | .263/.349/.463 | 5 | 1.12 | .352 | .319 | .357 |
| Kotchman, Casey | 1B | 8 | .271/.335/.395 | 5 | 0.91 | .324 | .300 | .331 |
| Jaso, John | C | 4 | .247/.329/.357 | 3 | 0.41 | .309 | .286 | .313 |
| Rodriguez, Sean | SS | 4 | .237/.315/.402 | 3 | 0.45 | .314 | .332 | .304 |
| Starter Total | 64 | .260/.342/.429 | 42 | 8.29 | .338 | .335 | .337 | |
| Bench | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Ruggiano, Justin | OF | 1 | .250/.301/.395 | 1 | 0.11 | .304 | .312 | .297 |
| Shoppach, Kelly | C | 4 | .208/.303/.379 | 3 | 0.41 | .302 | .323 | .292 |
| Johnson, Elliot | IF | 0 | .247/.286/.384 | 0 | 0.00 | .286 | .292 | .280 |
| Fuld, Sam | OF | 1 | .250/.322/.357 | 1 | 0.10 | .304 | .284 | .310 |
| Guyer, Brandon | OF | 1 | .281/.325/.444 | 1 | 0.13 | .330 | .338 | .315 |
| Canzler, Russ | IF | 0 | .263/.328/.450 | 0 | 0.00 | .337 | .371 | .303 |
| Lobaton, Jose | C | 0 | .241/.316/.365 | 0 | 0.00 | .303 | .301 | .304 |
| Brignac, Reid | SS | 4 | .235/.276/.336 | 3 | 0.31 | .269 | .246 | .274 |
| Bench Total | 11 | .233/.297/.368 | 8 | 1.06 | .293 | .292 | .289 | |
| Team Total | 75 | .256/.335/.420 | 50 | 9.35 | .331 | .329 | .330 |
Even at less than full strength, the Yankees probably have the better offense on the field.
For the pitching, it’s a bit trickier but I’ll take a shot anyway.
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Sabathia, CC | SP1 | 0 | 0 | 3.70 | 3.43 | 3.28 |
| Colon, Bartolo | SP2 | 5 | 3 | 4.82 | 4.04 | 3.97 |
| Nova, Ivan | SP3 | 0 | 0 | 4.77 | 4.36 | 4.33 |
| Garcia, Freddy | SP4 | 0 | 0 | 4.60 | 4.36 | 4.33 |
| Burnett, A.J. | SP5 | 0 | 0 | 5.21 | 4.82 | 4.49 |
| Hughes, Phil | SP6 | 0 | 0 | 4.45 | 4.12 | 4.17 |
| Betances, Dellin | SP7 | 4 | 2 | 5.36 | 4.96 | 4.83 |
| Brackman, Andrew | SP8 | 0 | 0 | 6.80 | 6.30 | 5.88 |
| Starter Total | 9 | 5 | 5.06 | 4.45 | 4.35 | |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Rivera, Mariano | CL | 1 | 0 | 3.03 | 2.81 | 2.89 |
| Robertson, David | SU | 1 | 0 | 3.75 | 3.47 | 3.05 |
| Soriano, Rafael | SU | 1 | 0 | 3.61 | 3.34 | 3.64 |
| Logan, Boone | SU | 1 | 0 | 4.32 | 4.00 | 3.77 |
| Wade, Cory | MR | 1 | 0 | 4.38 | 4.06 | 4.09 |
| Ayala, Luis | MR | 1 | 1 | 4.50 | 4.17 | 3.92 |
| Noesi, Hector | MR | 0 | 0 | 4.59 | 4.25 | 4.03 |
| Proctor, Scott | LR | 1 | 1 | 5.78 | 5.35 | 5.21 |
| Laffey, Aaron | LR | 1 | 1 | 5.56 | 5.15 | 4.59 |
| Kontos, George | LR | 1 | 1 | 5.38 | 4.98 | 5.02 |
| Reliever Total | 9 | 4 | 4.48 | 4.15 | 4.02 | |
| Team Total | 18 | 10 | 4.77 | 4.30 | 4.19 |
RA: Runs allowed per 9, calculated as 1.08*ERA
ERA: Earned runs allowed per 9
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Price, David | SP1 | 7 | 3 | 3.84 | 3.41 | 3.50 |
| Shields, James | SP2 | 0 | 0 | 4.03 | 3.70 | 3.68 |
| Hellickson, Jeremy | SP3 | 7 | 3 | 3.85 | 3.55 | 3.97 |
| Niemann, Jeff | SP4 | 0 | 0 | 4.11 | 3.95 | 4.11 |
| Davis, Wade | SP5 | 0 | 0 | 4.61 | 4.34 | 4.51 |
| Moore, Matt | SP6 | 0 | 0 | 4.57 | 4.23 | 4.10 |
| SP7 | 0 | |||||
| SP8 | 0 | |||||
| Starter Total | 14 | 6 | 3.84 | 3.48 | 3.74 | |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Farnsworth, Kyle | CL | 1 | 0 | 3.53 | 3.27 | 3.23 |
| Peralta, Joel | SU | 1 | 0 | 3.35 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Howell, J.P. | SU | 1 | 1 | 4.64 | 4.30 | 4.08 |
| Cruz, Juan | SU | 1 | 1 | 4.75 | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| McGee, Jake | MR | 0 | 0 | 4.56 | 4.22 | 4.03 |
| Gomes, Brandon | MR | 0 | 0 | 4.21 | 3.90 | 3.71 |
| Ramos, Cesar | MR | 0 | 0 | 5.18 | 4.80 | 4.43 |
| De La Rosa, Dane | LR | 0 | 0 | 5.03 | 4.66 | 4.40 |
| Sonnanstine, Andy | LR | 0 | 0 | 5.43 | 5.03 | 4.88 |
| Reliever Total | 4 | 2 | 4.07 | 3.77 | 3.80 | |
| Team Total | 18 | 8 | 3.89 | 3.54 | 3.75 |
Obviously the assumption here is 18 innings over two games. I don’t know if the Yankees would actually start Dellin Betances tomorrow, but I’m not sure who else they’d consider and the difference over four projected innings is minimal.
I am not going to bother with defense here, since it’s mostly covered in the pitching projections and trying to tease out two games of defense is more likely to be counter-productive than tell us anything useful.
How about the Red Sox and Orioles?
| Name | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Ellsbury, Jacoby | CF | 8 | .306/.349/.482 | 5 | 1.20 | .357 | .341 | .363 |
| Crawford, Carl | LF | 8 | .286/.327/.443 | 5 | 1.05 | .333 | .304 | .345 |
| Pedroia, Dustin | 2B | 8 | .290/.362/.454 | 5 | 1.13 | .355 | .370 | .349 |
| Ortiz, David | DH | 8 | .286/.367/.548 | 5 | 1.32 | .390 | .354 | .405 |
| Gonzalez, Adrian | 1B | 8 | .327/.412/.588 | 5 | 1.51 | .426 | .389 | .443 |
| Lowrie, Jed | 3B | 8 | .259/.316/.409 | 5 | 0.91 | .316 | .341 | .303 |
| Drew, J.D. | RF | 8 | .263/.346/.454 | 5 | 1.06 | .349 | .319 | .359 |
| Saltalamacchia, Jarrod | C | 8 | .235/.290/.416 | 6 | 0.86 | .305 | .285 | .316 |
| Scutaro, Marco | SS | 8 | .281/.347/.394 | 5 | 0.96 | .328 | .361 | .295 |
| Starter Total | 72 | .281/.346/.465 | 47 | 10.00 | .351 | .340 | .353 | |
| Bench | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Aviles, Mike | IF | 0 | .268/.296/.413 | 0 | 0.00 | .305 | .319 | .298 |
| Varitek, Jason | C | 0 | .234/.303/.434 | 0 | 0.00 | .317 | .332 | .311 |
| Jackson, Conor | OF | 2 | .250/.324/.364 | 1 | 0.21 | .309 | .325 | .302 |
| Aviles, Mike | IF | 0 | .268/.296/.413 | 0 | 0.00 | .305 | .319 | .298 |
| McDonald, Darnell | OF | 0 | .269/.316/.449 | 0 | 0.00 | .326 | .339 | .310 |
| Gathright, Joey | OF | 0 | .239/.291/.311 | 0 | 0.00 | .269 | .255 | .272 |
| Lavarnway, Ryan | C | 2 | .255/.332/.467 | 1 | 0.27 | .345 | .358 | .338 |
| Drew, J.D. | OF | 0 | .263/.346/.454 | 0 | 0.00 | .349 | .319 | .359 |
| Bench Total | 4 | .252/.328/.415 | 3 | 0.48 | .327 | .342 | .320 | |
| Team Total | 76 | .280/.345/.462 | 50 | 10.48 | .350 | .340 | .351 |
| Name | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Angle, Matt | LF | 8 | .250/.309/.313 | 6 | 0.72 | .280 | .224 | .336 |
| Hardy, J.J. | SS | 8 | .260/.305/.430 | 6 | 0.93 | .317 | .335 | .311 |
| Markakis, Nick | RF | 8 | .288/.352/.419 | 5 | 1.02 | .341 | .318 | .351 |
| Guerrero, Vladimir | DH | 8 | .295/.329/.460 | 5 | 1.03 | .341 | .356 | .336 |
| Wieters, Matt | C | 8 | .261/.324/.414 | 5 | 0.93 | .324 | .327 | .323 |
| Jones, Adam | CF | 8 | .282/.318/.457 | 5 | 1.00 | .333 | .336 | .332 |
| Reynolds, Mark | 1B | 8 | .236/.332/.521 | 5 | 1.21 | .362 | .383 | .355 |
| Davis, Chris | 3B | 8 | .271/.321/.476 | 5 | 1.08 | .341 | .318 | .350 |
| Andino, Robert | 2B | 8 | .254/.297/.361 | 6 | 0.75 | .289 | .303 | .283 |
| Starter Total | 72 | .267/.321/.428 | 49 | 8.67 | .325 | .322 | .331 | |
| Bench | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Tatum, Craig | C | 0 | .219/.276/.292 | 0 | 0.00 | .256 | .268 | .252 |
| Fox, Jake | C | 0 | .265/.323/.476 | 0 | 0.00 | .343 | .349 | .339 |
| Adams, Ryan | 3B | 0 | .258/.307/.385 | 0 | 0.00 | .305 | .336 | .275 |
| Bell, Josh | IF | 0 | .239/.290/.407 | 0 | 0.00 | .303 | .308 | .301 |
| Hudson, Kyle | IF | 0 | .226/.282/.263 | 0 | 0.00 | .250 | .230 | .252 |
| Reimold, Nolan | OF | 1 | .255/.334/.437 | 1 | 0.13 | .337 | .349 | .330 |
| Florimon Jr., Pedro | OF | 0 | .224/.278/.329 | 0 | 0.00 | .268 | .268 | .268 |
| Bench Total | 1 | #N/A | 1 | 0.13 | .337 | .349 | .330 | |
| Team Total | 73 | #N/A | 50 | 8.80 | .325 | .323 | .331 |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Beckett, Josh | SP1 | 0 | 0 | 3.76 | 3.51 | 3.85 |
| Lester, Jon | SP2 | 7 | 3 | 3.63 | 3.43 | 3.45 |
| Bedard, Erik | SP3 | 5 | 2 | 4.02 | 3.62 | 3.59 |
| Lackey, John | SP4 | 0 | 0 | 4.89 | 4.51 | 4.14 |
| Wakefield, Tim | SP5 | 0 | 0 | 4.93 | 4.61 | 5.27 |
| Miller, Andrew | SP6 | 0 | 0 | 6.40 | 5.58 | 5.01 |
| Weiland, Kyle | SP7 | 0 | 0 | 5.56 | 5.15 | 4.97 |
| Buchholz, Clay | SP8 | 0 | 0 | 4.02 | 3.59 | 4.14 |
| Starter Total | 12 | 5 | 3.79 | 3.51 | 3.51 | |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Papelbon, Jonathan | CL | 2 | 1 | 3.29 | 3.05 | 2.93 |
| Bard, Daniel | SU | 2 | 1 | 3.37 | 3.12 | 3.51 |
| Wheeler, Dan | SU | 1 | 0 | 3.96 | 3.67 | 4.11 |
| Albers, Matt | SU | 0 | 0 | 4.59 | 4.25 | 3.97 |
| Morales, Franklin | MR | 0 | 0 | 4.88 | 4.52 | 4.75 |
| Atchison, Scott | MR | 0 | 0 | 3.81 | 3.53 | 3.57 |
| Doubront, Felix | MR | 0 | 0 | 5.35 | 4.95 | 4.67 |
| Aceves, Alfredo | LR | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 3.70 | 4.02 |
| Bowden, Michael | LR | 0 | 0 | 4.97 | 4.60 | 4.79 |
| Buchholz, Clay | LR | 0 | 0 | 3.88 | 3.59 | 4.14 |
| Tazawa, Junichi | LR | 6 | 2 | 3.55 | 3.29 | 3.50 |
| Team Total | 18 | 7 | 3.71 | 3.43 | 3.51 |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Britton, Zach | SP1 | 5 | 2 | 4.44 | 4.11 | 4.04 |
| Simon, Alfredo | SP2 | 5 | 3 | 5.13 | 4.60 | 4.48 |
| Matusz, Brian | SP3 | 0 | 0 | 4.96 | 4.69 | 4.59 |
| Hunter, Tommy | SP4 | 0 | 0 | 4.60 | 4.38 | 4.48 |
| Vandenhurk, Rick | SP5 | 0 | 0 | 5.64 | 5.09 | 5.38 |
| Guthrie, Jeremy | SP6 | 0 | 0 | 4.39 | 4.14 | 4.41 |
| SP7 | 0 | |||||
| SP8 | 0 | |||||
| Starter Total | 10 | 5 | 4.78 | 4.36 | 4.26 | |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Johnson, Jim | CL | 1 | 0 | 3.93 | 3.64 | 3.65 |
| Gregg, Kevin | SU | 1 | 1 | 4.76 | 4.41 | 4.35 |
| Patton, Troy | SU | 1 | 1 | 5.18 | 4.80 | 4.72 |
| Bergesen, Brad | SU | 1 | 1 | 4.91 | 4.55 | 4.57 |
| Accardo, Jeremy | MR | 1 | 1 | 4.78 | 4.43 | 4.18 |
| Berken, Jason | MR | 1 | 1 | 5.28 | 4.89 | 4.40 |
| Eyre, Willie | MR | 1 | 1 | 4.70 | 4.35 | 4.25 |
| Rapada, Clay | LR | 1 | 0 | 4.44 | 4.11 | 3.76 |
| Reyes, Jo-Jo | LR | 0 | 0 | 5.72 | 5.30 | 4.92 |
| Strop, Pedro | LR | 0 | 0 | 4.59 | 4.25 | 3.90 |
| Reliever Total | 8 | 4 | 4.75 | 4.40 | 4.23 | |
| Team Total | 18 | 10 | 4.77 | 4.37 | 4.25 |
Yeah, yeah, yeah, so what does all this nerdy crap mean?
It means this.
| Team | Gms | RS | RA | wpct |
| NYA | 2 | 9.5 | 9.5 | .499 |
| BOS | 2 | 10.5 | 7.4 | .656 |
| TB | 2 | 9.4 | 7.8 | .584 |
| BAL | 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | .471 |
And if we use those numbers adjusted for home-field advantage to play out the last two games of the season, here’s what I get for the wild card odds.
Rays: 50.9%
Red Sox: 49.1%
Should be interesting.
Monday, September 26, 2011
Yankees.com: Cano’s bat can’t carry Yanks alone in St. Pete
As the Yankees attempt to balance resting their regulars with serving their roles as spoilers in the American League Wild Card race, manager Joe Girardi fielded a lineup that produced mixed results.
Robinson Cano homered and notched a run-scoring single against Tampa Bay starter James Shields, who otherwise gave the Rays everything they needed. Pending the result of Boston’s game at Baltimore, the Rays’ win pulled them within a half-game of the Red Sox with two games remaining.
Best loss ever.
Pending the result of this?
Red Sox fall into WC tie as O’s barrel back
BALTIMORE—Two games left, and it’s all tied up. That is the reality the Red Sox now face as their once secure grip in the American League Wild Card standings has slipped away entirely.
This, after an 6-3 loss on Monday at Camden Yards to the 68-92 Orioles, a team that has beaten the Red Sox in four out of five meetings over the last week.
If the Red Sox don’t reverse that in the next two games, they could be going home earlier than anyone thought. The resilient Rays have come all the way back and have the same 89-71 record as Boston after beating the Yankees, 5-2, at Tropicana Field on Monday.
It was the continuation an almost surreal turn of events over the last few weeks for the Red Sox, who have gone 6-19 in September, losing nine games in the standings over that time.
Back on Aug. 17, Boston had a lead of 10 games in the AL Wild Card. Now, the Sox have two games—and perhaps a one-game playoff on Thursday—to avoid being the first team to blow a double-digit Wild Card lead since that format started in 1994.
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Yankees.com: Burnett helps Yanks burn Red Sox in Game 1
NEW YORK—Nearly three years have passed, but A.J. Burnett has finally done what the Yankees asked when they chased him so passionately as a free agent: Beat the Boston Red Sox.
The right-hander hurled 7 2/3 strong innings on Sunday, defeating the skidding Red Sox, 6-2, in the first game of a day-night doubleheader at Yankee Stadium.
Burnett’s effort ended a string of 10 overall starts against the Red Sox—including nine as a Yankee—dating back to Sept. 19, 2008, taking advantage of a Boston club that continues to fret about their postseason chances.
While Burnett may not have a place in the first-round postseason rotation, where Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia could follow CC Sabathia in the American League Division Series, he offered some optimism for his inclusion in some form.
Burnett’s final line looks pretty good, but he was shaky early. Through four innings he’d thrown 32 strikes and 29 balls. Over the rest of the game he threw 32 strikes and just 12 balls, and ended his day by striking out the last two batters he faced. It’s only natural to wonder how much of his performance can be attributed to pitching against a Boston team that’s probably pressing versus him battling through adversity. I suppose we can say that we’ve seen that when A.J.‘s bad enough, he can make the worst team in MLB look good (the Twins), so this outing has to be viewed positively, although I’m sure it won’t be by some.
If I had to guess, he’s probably earned a shot at the postseason rotation, maybe as the #4 in the ALDS should the Yankees by some miracle be up 2-1. I’m fine with that, provided he’s got a short leash with someone like Bartolo Colon or Phil Hughes shadowing him. There’s no reason to think he’d be appreciably worse than either of them in a single start.
Tampabayrays.com: Four homers help Rays gain ground
ST. PETERSBURG—A home-run barrage coupled with an inspired pitching performance led the Rays to a 5-2 win over the Blue Jays on Sunday afternoon at Tropicana Field.
By winning, the Rays moved to within a half-game of the American League Wild Card-leading Red Sox, who lost to the Yankees in the first game of a day-night double-header on Sunday.
We’re about two hours away from a game that has the potential to be an absolute smorgasbord of schadenfreude.
Saturday, September 24, 2011
NY Post: MLB will add wild-card teams, hold one-game playoff: sources
Negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement for Major League Baseball are moving at a fast pace and one issue the sides have all but agreed upon is adding two wild-card teams and holding one-game playoffs in each league to determine which of the wild cards advances, The Post has learned.
One person involved in the talks described that scenario as a done deal and another hedged a little by saying it is likely to play out that way, but nothing will be finalized until an entire CBA is inked.
Both sources said because there would be just a one-game playoff added, the second wild-card team could be installed as early as next year, but the new system will go into effect no later than 2013.
Why wait? Implement it now and let Boston and Tampa Bay play each other to determine who gets into the ALDS.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Can The Yankees Get Swept By Tampa Bay and Still Win the AL East?
Here are the shedules for the rest of the season for the teams that are still relevant in the AL wild card/East race.
| Date | Yankees | w | Red Sox | w | Rays | w | Rangers | w | Angels | w |
| 9/20/2011 | Rays | 0 | Orioles | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | @Athletics | 0 | @Blue Jays | 0 |
| 9/21/2011 | Rays | 0 | Orioles | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | @Athletics | 0 | @Blue Jays | 0 |
| 9/21/2011 | Rays | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | ||||||
| 9/22/2011 | Rays | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | @Athletics | 0 | @Blue Jays | 0 | ||
| 9/23/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | 0 | Mariners | 0 | Athletics | 0 |
| 9/24/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | 0 | Mariners | 0 | Athletics | 0 |
| 9/25/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | 0 | Mariners | 0 | Athletics | 0 |
| 9/26/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 0 | Yankees | 0 | @Angels | 0 | Rangers | 0 |
| 9/27/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 0 | Yankees | 0 | @Angels | 0 | Rangers | 0 |
| 9/28/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 0 | Yankees | 0 | @Angels | 0 | Rangers | 0 |
| current | final | current | final | current | final | current | final | current | final | |
| W | 92 | 92 | 88 | 88 | 85 | 85 | 88 | 88 | 83 | 83 |
| L | 60 | 70 | 66 | 74 | 67 | 77 | 65 | 74 | 70 | 79 |
The good news is that the Yankees’ magic number over LAAA of AA is one. The next Yankee win or Angels loss makes it a three way dance, as Paul Heyman would call it. I am going to guarantee that the Angels lose one of their last nine games, so let’s play around with the three way dance scenarios.
Here’s where we are now.
| Date | Yankees | w | Red Sox | w | Rays | w |
| 9/20/2011 | Rays | 0 | Orioles | 0 | @Yankees | 0 |
| 9/21/2011 | Rays | 0 | Orioles | 0 | @Yankees | 0 |
| 9/21/2011 | Rays | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | ||
| 9/22/2011 | Rays | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | ||
| 9/23/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | |
| 9/24/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | |
| 9/25/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | |
| 9/26/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 0 | Yankees | 0 |
| 9/27/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 0 | Yankees | 0 |
| 9/28/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 0 | Yankees | 0 |
| current | final | current | final | current | final | |
| W | 92 | 92 | 88 | 88 | 85 | 85 |
| L | 60 | 70 | 66 | 74 | 67 | 77 |
Here’s where we are assuming Boston and Tampa Bay win all their non-Yankee games.
| Date | Yankees | w | Red Sox | w | Rays | w |
| 9/20/2011 | Rays | 0 | Orioles | 1 | @Yankees | 0 |
| 9/21/2011 | Rays | 0 | Orioles | 1 | @Yankees | 0 |
| 9/21/2011 | Rays | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | ||
| 9/22/2011 | Rays | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | ||
| 9/23/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | 1 |
| 9/24/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | 1 |
| 9/25/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | 1 |
| 9/26/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 1 | Yankees | 0 |
| 9/27/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 1 | Yankees | 0 |
| 9/28/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 1 | Yankees | 0 |
| current | final | current | final | current | final | |
| W | 92 | 92 | 88 | 93 | 85 | 88 |
| L | 60 | 70 | 66 | 69 | 67 | 74 |
A 1 in the ‘w’ column to the right of each team’s name is a win. I guess that means you can put it on the right side. So what this table shows is Boston winning all five of their games against the Orioles, which means 93 wins before considering whatever they may do against the Yankees and Tampa Bay sweeping Toronto.
The Rays have to win at least five games against the Yankees if they want to get to the 93 wins Boston would have if/when they win all their games against Baltimore. If that were to happen, we’d be looking at this:
| Date | Yankees | w | Red Sox | w | Rays | w |
| 9/20/2011 | Rays | 1 | Orioles | 1 | @Yankees | 0 |
| 9/21/2011 | Rays | 0 | Orioles | 1 | @Yankees | 1 |
| 9/21/2011 | Rays | 0 | @Yankees | 1 | ||
| 9/22/2011 | Rays | 1 | @Yankees | 0 | ||
| 9/23/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | 1 |
| 9/24/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | 1 |
| 9/25/2011 | Red Sox | 0 | @Yankees | 0 | Blue Jays | 1 |
| 9/26/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 1 | Yankees | 1 |
| 9/27/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 1 | Yankees | 1 |
| 9/28/2011 | @Rays | 0 | @Orioles | 1 | Yankees | 1 |
| current | final | current | final | current | final | |
| W | 92 | 94 | 88 | 93 | 85 | 93 |
| L | 60 | 68 | 66 | 69 | 67 | 69 |
In this scenario, the Yankees would have to sweep Boston to beat them out for the division and to give Tampa Bay the wild card. Any loss by Boston vs. the Orioles means the Yankees can take 2-3 against them and still go 2-5 vs. Tampa Bay.
Of course, it’s all moot if Tampa Bay doesn’t sweep the Blue Jays.
If the Yankees win two of their next four games vs. Tampa Bay and Boston wins their two games vs. Baltimore, the Yankees can clinch a tie for the AL East by winning one of the three games vs. Boston. If Boston loses one of their next two against Baltimore the Yankees can clinch the East against them at home. That would be fun.
So I’m hoping for a 2-2 split with Tampa Bay over the next four games with Boston losing one of the next two to the O’s which gives the Yankees three shots to clinch against Boston.
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Yankees.com: Swisher provides only offense in walk-off loss
It was another one-run loss for the Yankees, who managed just four hits all night and had their three-game winning streak snapped.
“We’ve had three tough ones on this road trip, lost three games by one run,” manager Joe Girardi said. “It’s a tough one, because you figure your offense is usually going to score more than one run.”
Despite the loss, the Yankees maintained a four-game lead in the American League East thanks to Toronto’s 5-4 win over second-place Boston. New York’s magic number is now 11 and the Yankees will enjoy an off-day Thursday before heading to Toronto for a three-game set starting Friday.
Losing a game against a crappy team when your starter gives up 1 run over 7 1/3 innings is somewhat annoying, isn’t it?
I turned off the game when I saw Rafael Soriano warming up to come in, but it doesn’t seem like I missed much. My chief issue with last night was the way Girardi handled the 8th inning on offense. After Andruw Jones was hit by a pitch, Girardi pinch-ran for him with Brett Gardner. Miguel Olivo is a fairly good catcher in terms of stealing bases, but Girardi didn’t even bother trying to let Gardner steal, opting instead to give Seattle a free out by having Russell Martin bunt Gardner to second. I’ll grant that the bunt in and of itself is probably defensible if you look at things like run expectancy and win probability although it’s probably not optimal.
What was not defensible was what happened after the bunt.
Jamey Wright is a RHP who’s bounced around MLB for 16 seasons. He’s been about average for a reliever over the last three years (ERA+ of 104). He has the type of platoon split you’d expect from a RHP in his career, although it’s worth noting he’s been better vs. LHB over the last three season.
Still, there was no reason to let Eduardo Nunez hit after the Martin bunt. You have a fully stocked bench to avoid that from happening. When I saw Nunez coming up my first thought was “WTF?” Then I thought, “well maybe Girardi wants to be cautious with Eric Chavez and rest him.” That thought then melded into, “WTF?” He could pinch-hit for Nunez with Jorge Posada or Chris Dickerson and then use Ramiro Pena for defense if he didn’t want to use Chavez.” The defensive upgrade alone by replacing Nunez with a warm body makes it the smart move. Instead, Nunez, who’s hit .236/.288/.312 since the All Star Break over 172 PA, grounded out on the second pitch of his PA, shocking probably one person on the planet. Maybe two if you count Binder™ as a sentient being, and the Yankees didn’t score.
It gets better though.
In Nunez’s very next PA, Girardi PINCH HIT FOR HIM WITH ERIC CHAVEZ. If you were willing to do it in the 10th inning with two outs and the bases empty, why wouldn’t you have done it in the eighth inning with the go-ahead run on 2B and one out?
Anyway, it was a crappy game and a tough one to lose given the fact that both Tampa Bay and Boston had lost earlier. So I guess in that sense it was a fitting ending to a crappy road trip that saw the Yankees lose 4 of 7 games when they could probably have put away Boston in the AL East for good.
Monday, September 12, 2011
Down The Stretch They Come
Instead of just throwing a bunch of percentages up here like I’d normally do right about now, I wanted to take a more granular look at the remaining schedule for the AL postseason contenders.
The Yankees have won 88 games. The teams in the AL who can exceed that this point are Boston, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Texas, LAAAAAA of AA, Cleveland, the White Sox and Toronto. If all those teams won the rest of their games, here’s where they’d end the year.
| Team | W | L | GR | Max |
| NYY | 88 | 57 | 17 | 105 |
| BOS | 85 | 61 | 16 | 101 |
| DET | 84 | 62 | 16 | 100 |
| TB | 81 | 64 | 17 | 98 |
| TEX | 83 | 64 | 15 | 98 |
| LAA | 80 | 66 | 16 | 96 |
| CLE | 72 | 72 | 18 | 90 |
| CWS | 73 | 72 | 17 | 90 |
| TOR | 74 | 73 | 15 | 89 |
Because most of those teams play at least a few games against each other, they can’t all win all their remaining games. Cleveland has three games left with the Rangers and four games left with the White Sox, for example. So if they win all their games, Texas can only win at most 93, and the White Sox can only win 86, etc., I feel comfortable in saying that it’s not likely either Cleveland or the White Sox will win more games than the Yankees over the rest of the year. For the purposes of assessing the Yankees’ postseason chances, Detroit’s a non-factor in this scenario, because they can’t contend for the wild card AND win more games than the Yankees.
Toronto plays nothing but teams on that list for the rest of the year, with two vs. Boston, three vs. the Yankees, four vs. the Angels, three vs. the Rays, and three vs. the White Sox. I’m going to go out on a limb and say they’ll lose at least two of those. So I’m going to only look at the other teams.
| Team | NYY | BOS | DET | TB | TEX | LAA |
| NYY | 3 | 6 | ||||
| BOS | 3 | 4 | ||||
| DET | ||||||
| TB | 6 | 4 | ||||
| TEX | 3 | |||||
| LAA | 3 |
Texas and California have three games left against each other.
Tampa Bay has six games left vs. the Yankees and four games vs. Boston.
The Yankees have those six games vs. the Rays and three games vs. Boston.
Detroit gets to beat up on cream puffs for the rest of the year, and are right now the team with the highest playoff probability in the American League. So I’m going to say they’re in.
That means you’ve got five teams fighting for three playoff spots.
The first number to think about is that 96 from Anaheim. If they get there, that means Texas can only get to 95. So 96 wins is effectively the clinching number to eliminate the AL west runner-up from the wild card. That obviously goes down each time Texas and LAA lose.
If Tampa Bay can get to 98, that means Boston can only get to 97 and the Yankees can only get to 99. So getting to that 97 from Boston is the bar for the Yankees, although it would only be a tie. Again, that obviously goes down as the Rays/Red Sox lose.
That means the Yankees’ magic number for tying for a postseason spot is nine, and for taking one outright is 10. In the event that the Yankees and Red Sox tied for the last spot, the season series between them wouldn’t matter, and there’d be a one game play-in.
Which the Sox would win handily.
Saturday, September 10, 2011
Yankees.com: Yanks muster little at plate in loss to Halos
ANAHEIM—Maicer Izturis’ game-winning drive landed in Curtis Granderson’s glove, too deep in center field to attempt a throw, and all Derek Jeter thought about was the toss he should have made.
Izturis connected for a bases-loaded sacrifice fly facing Luis Ayala in the ninth inning on Friday night, lifting the Angels to a 2-1 victory over the Yankees that made Jeter’s hurried fifth-inning throwing error loom even larger.
“It boils down to giving them extra outs,” Jeter said. “I gave them an extra out throwing that ball away.”
More importantly, Jeter added, the Yankees couldn’t afford to cough up runs facing a stellar Jered Weaver, who limited the Bombers to just Jesus Montero’s homer over eight innings, striking out 11.
I’ll give Jeter a pass, since it was Jeff Mathis busting it down the line. It’s pretty hard to throw out a backup catcher on a routine grounder.
I didn’t get to see the game, but reading the recap and the game chatter here’s what I have to say about it.
1) Jered Weaver is a good pitcher, and from what I can glean he pitched well. Sometimes you face a good pitcher and he shuts you down.
2) As I’ve gotten older, I’ve lost the ability to “hate” players. Frankly, if I was the absolute worst player in MLB history, I’d bat or pitch every time a team kept giving me a chance to do it. So I don’t hate players who aren’t particularly good. If their team puts them in a position to fail, that’s the team’s fault, not theirs. So with regards to using Aaron Laffey last night (or Scott Proctor the day before) in the absolute highest leverage a team can be in at the start of an inning, I won’t blame Laffey (Proctor) for that. I’ll blame Joe Girardi. If you think this game is unimportant enough to use Laffey in that spot, you shouldn’t have wasted David Robertson in the eighth, since now you probably won’t be able to use him in a game you may actually try to win tonight. If you think these games are unimportant, why not audition some of the people who have upside and may have a meaningful role with this team in the years to come? Perhaps they’ll surprise you and show that they’re ready now? Does anyone think Buck Showalter would have used Jack McDowell to replace Mariano Rivera in the 9th inning of the fifth game of the 1995 ALDS if he knew how good Rivera was? If Hector Noesi didn’t get a shot against Baltimore in extra innings in his MLB debut, would the Yankees ever have made him a useful part of their bullpen?
3) As I said, the Yankees always find a way to lose to the Angels, and it’s really infuriating. Your pitcher’s pitching brilliantly against them? Make an error that gives them the run that ends up costing you the win.
4) The Yankees are probably exhausted right now given the way their last three games have unfolded. A four hour rain delay in New York resulting in a game that ended around 2:00 am followed by a trip for a day game to Baltimore followed by a flight to the West Coast to play a game at 10:00 pm Eastern time. So maybe we’re seeing some effect from that.
5) Any schadenfreude from the Red Sox’s recent tailspin is pretty much gone with the fact that the Yankees haven’t been able to gain even one iota from it, aside from shortening the amount of time the Red Sox might have to catch them.
It’s still really unlikely that the Yankees miss the playoffs, and with Detroit and Texas in a near dead heat record-wise there’s not necessarily going to be a huge advantage from winning the division. So I can at least be happy that Bartolo Colon pitched well, something he hasn’t done as much of since his return from the DL. I can also appreciate the fact that Jesus Montero pulled a HR off one of the best pitchers in the league and helped make his case for full-time play. Also, the Angels are just two games back of Texas in the loss column and it wouldn’t necessarily be the worst thing in the world if they forced Texas to go all out down the stretch. It can only benefit whomever faces the AL West winner if the race goes down to the wire.
I seriously expect the Yankees to lose every game they play against the Angels. Because of that, I just can’t get that worked up about it anymore. As a card-carrying stat-nerd, I really have a tough time reconciling the fact that what’s happened in the past has no bearing on what happens now when these two teams play and that the talent on the field that given day should be the primary factor in who wins or loses with the way the Yankees constantly roll over for Anaheim.
Monday, September 5, 2011
Monte Carlo Standings and Postseason Odds Through September 4, 2011
| American League | |||||||
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Yankees | 99 | 63 | 870 | 657 | 63.0% | 36.7% | 99.7% |
| Red Sox | 98 | 64 | 860 | 694 | 36.9% | 62.3% | 99.3% |
| Rays | 87 | 75 | 705 | 630 | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
| Blue Jays | 79 | 83 | 745 | 749 | - | - | - |
| Orioles | 64 | 98 | 694 | 841 | - | - | - |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Tigers | 89 | 73 | 740 | 724 | 94.2% | - | 94.2% |
| White Sox | 82 | 80 | 672 | 681 | 4.0% | - | 4.0% |
| Indians | 80 | 82 | 688 | 720 | 1.9% | - | 1.9% |
| Twins | 71 | 91 | 662 | 791 | - | - | - |
| Royals | 67 | 95 | 706 | 782 | - | - | - |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Rangers | 91 | 71 | 815 | 696 | 92.1% | 0.0% | 92.1% |
| Angels | 86 | 76 | 666 | 650 | 7.9% | 0.0% | 7.9% |
| Athletics | 75 | 87 | 654 | 668 | - | - | - |
| Mariners | 69 | 93 | 574 | 678 | - | - | - |
| National League | |||||||
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Phillies | 103 | 59 | 736 | 555 | 98.0% | 2.0% | 100.0% |
| Braves | 94 | 68 | 678 | 605 | 2.0% | 95.4% | 97.4% |
| Mets | 80 | 82 | 723 | 733 | - | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nationals | 75 | 87 | 632 | 688 | - | - | - |
| Marlins | 73 | 89 | 647 | 717 | - | - | - |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Brewers | 95 | 67 | 723 | 659 | 98.7% | 0.2% | 98.9% |
| Cardinals | 86 | 76 | 761 | 714 | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.3% |
| Reds | 81 | 81 | 751 | 711 | - | - | - |
| Pirates | 74 | 88 | 633 | 706 | - | - | - |
| Cubs | 70 | 92 | 664 | 768 | - | - | - |
| Astros | 56 | 106 | 610 | 787 | - | - | - |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Diamondbacks | 89 | 73 | 713 | 689 | 83.2% | 0.1% | 83.3% |
| Giants | 85 | 77 | 575 | 585 | 15.9% | 0.3% | 16.2% |
| Dodgers | 80 | 82 | 641 | 630 | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| Rockies | 78 | 84 | 744 | 751 | 0.1% | - | 0.1% |
| Padres | 71 | 91 | 614 | 637 | - | - | - |
W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
Not looking like too much suspense aside from seeding at this point.
Sunday, September 4, 2011
Yankees.com: Backed by homers, CC earns 19th win
NEW YORK—If CC Sabathia felt the effects of a 128-pitch, six-inning outing Tuesday night in Boston, he didn’t show it Sunday.
The left-hander pitched 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball to bag his 19th win of the season as the Yankees downed the Blue Jays, 7-3, to complete a three-game sweep in the Bronx. Sabathia struck out 10, walked one and threw 111 pitches. He retired 13 of the final 14 batters to face him.
Derek Jeter hit his fifth homer of the season—and the second since he reached 3,000 career hits with a long ball—to give the Yankees and their ace some early breathing room. The three-run shot to left field against Toronto left-hander Brett Cecil landed in the same area as the famous July 9 home run and extended the Yankees’ lead from 1-0 to 4-0.
I was wondering how Sabathia would look after a pretty tough start on Tuesday, and the answer was great.
And thank God we have Rafael Soriano to pitch innings that only eighth inning guys could pitch. If the Yankees hadn’t dropped $36M on Soriano they may have won this one 9-2 instead of 9-3. But I digress.
The sweep is nice, but if they’re going to sweep a pretty good Toronto team they damn well better sweep a crappy Orioles team.
Friday, September 2, 2011
Boston Globe: Edge to Yankees
Gonzalez took a two-strike pitch from Rivera that was low and on the outer corner of the plate. On a night when his strike zone had been tight, umpire Alfonso Marquez called Gonzalez out to end the game.
Sitting in front of his locker after a 4-2 loss, Gonzalez looked up as reporters entered the clubhouse.
“That pitch was low, I should still be hitting. That’s all I have to say,’’ he said.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
The Implications of this Series with Boston
At this point, I have Boston as around a 2-1 favorite for winning the AL East.
So, here’s how that changes based on the various potential outcomes for this series.
| Now | W | L | Div |
| Red Sox | 100.0 | 62.0 | 67.5% |
| Yankees | 97.9 | 64.1 | 32.5% |
| Yankee Sweep | W | L | Div |
| Yankees | 98.8 | 63.2 | 56.5% |
| Red Sox | 98.0 | 64.0 | 43.0% |
| Yankees 2-1 | W | L | Div |
| Red Sox | 99.4 | 62.6 | 59.5% |
| Yankees | 98.0 | 64.0 | 40.5% |
| Boston 2-1 | W | L | Div |
| Red Sox | 100.1 | 62.0 | 71.5% |
| Yankees | 97.6 | 64.4 | 28.5% |
| Boston sweep | W | L | Div |
| Red Sox | 100.9 | 61.1 | 84.0% |
| Yankees | 96.2 | 65.8 | 16.0% |
Tampa Bay is still technically in the divisional picture, their chances just aren’t registering above the .5% threshold needed to be seen here. The fact that Boston and the Yankees play each other six times makes it that much harder for the Rays to catch both.
So basically, if the Yankees still want a realistic shot at winning the division, they have to sweep this series. I probably don’t have to tell you that the likelihood of that is slim.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
TGS NY: Yanks, O’s watch hurricane
NEW YORK—Worried about Hurricane Irene possibly affecting games this weekend, the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles discussed playing a doubleheader Friday, but the Orioles said that isn’t going to happen.
The teams are currently scheduled to play five games from Friday to Monday, with a doubleheader on Saturday.
“Just business as usual and you hope for the best,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said following his team’s 22-9 win against Oakland. “Hopefully our game times don’t coincide with the hurricane but I’m not so sure how it’s not going to. Make the best of it, that’s all you can do.”
While the Friday forecast calls for partly cloudy conditions, according to weather.com, the hurricane is supposed to dump rain on Baltimore Saturday and Sunday, which could affect three of the five scheduled games.
A spokesperson for the Orioles said that the teams will not play a doubleheader Friday.
This could get ugly. Nice to see the Orioles being considerate, but there’s a pretty good chance any further postponed games won’t need to be made up at all, so they’re really just spiting themselves.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Team A vs. Team B
| Team | W | L | wpct | pyth | RS/G | RA/G |
| A | 50 | 66 | .431 | .442 | 4.62 | 5.22 |
| B | 63 | 52 | .548 | .504 | 5.12 | 5.08 |
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
More on Run Differentials
Last week I looked at the Yankees’ run differential and made the point that actual runs scored and allowed can be a bit misleading, and that it’s probably more instructive to look at the context neutral value of the offensive events for and against a team to get a better sense of how good they have actually been. For the hell of it I decided to look at this for all teams in MLB as of this morning.
| Team | RS | RA | bRS | bRA | RS - bRS | RA - bRA | Gap |
| Pirates | 436 | 469 | 415 | 503 | 21 | -34 | 55 |
| Yankees | 603 | 436 | 577 | 455 | 26 | -19 | 45 |
| Padres | 431 | 438 | 413 | 448 | 18 | -10 | 28 |
| Reds | 542 | 510 | 522 | 511 | 20 | -1 | 21 |
| Phillies | 504 | 375 | 500 | 391 | 4 | -16 | 20 |
| Blue Jays | 534 | 522 | 515 | 522 | 19 | 0 | 18 |
| Braves | 476 | 426 | 467 | 428 | 9 | -2 | 11 |
| Royals | 505 | 551 | 509 | 566 | -4 | -15 | 11 |
| Diamondbacks | 516 | 502 | 499 | 493 | 17 | 9 | 9 |
| Nationals | 449 | 471 | 445 | 475 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| Rays | 485 | 452 | 481 | 453 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| Angels | 441 | 419 | 457 | 439 | -16 | -20 | 5 |
| Cardinals | 552 | 500 | 538 | 490 | 14 | 10 | 4 |
| Indians | 478 | 486 | 458 | 469 | 20 | 17 | 3 |
| Rockies | 528 | 536 | 519 | 529 | 9 | 7 | 2 |
| Twins | 449 | 559 | 420 | 532 | 29 | 27 | 2 |
| Athletics | 442 | 456 | 430 | 440 | 12 | 16 | -5 |
| White Sox | 453 | 468 | 451 | 457 | 2 | 11 | -9 |
| Mets | 518 | 507 | 525 | 504 | -7 | 3 | -10 |
| Red Sox | 625 | 479 | 628 | 472 | -3 | 7 | -11 |
| Dodgers | 418 | 456 | 429 | 454 | -11 | 2 | -13 |
| Marlins | 462 | 503 | 471 | 497 | -9 | 6 | -15 |
| Mariners | 376 | 439 | 362 | 409 | 14 | 30 | -16 |
| Rangers | 589 | 490 | 582 | 466 | 7 | 24 | -17 |
| Brewers | 512 | 486 | 508 | 462 | 4 | 24 | -19 |
| Astros | 437 | 574 | 451 | 568 | -14 | 6 | -20 |
| Orioles | 462 | 598 | 473 | 586 | -11 | 12 | -23 |
| Cubs | 474 | 571 | 481 | 552 | -7 | 19 | -26 |
| Giants | 399 | 411 | 414 | 399 | -15 | 12 | -28 |
| Tigers | 508 | 514 | 512 | 484 | -4 | 30 | -35 |
RS/RA: Actual runs scored/allowed
bRS/bRA linear weights batting runs scored/allowed.
Gap: RS - bRS minus RA - bRA. The larger the number, the more a team has outplayed their peripherals. Basically, positive is bad here and negative is good.
What this table is saying is that, for example, the Yankees have scored about 26 more runs and allowed 19 fewer runs than their peripheral stats say they should have. That doesn’t mean you should subtract 4.5 wins from their total on the season. It just means that their Pythagenpat record/run differential is a bit misleading. In the Yankees’ case they’ve got 73 Pythag wins and 69 actual wins, so they haven’t really taken advantage of this in actual wins.
Contrast that with Pittsburgh, who’ve stumbled lately. They were playing over their heads all year, and unfortunately the correction has been ugly. At 55-59, they’re still two wins ahead of their 53-61 Pythag record, and if you look at that gap they are probably not even that good.
Sunday, August 7, 2011
Hmmmm
| Josh Beckett 2011 | bf | hbp | hbp/bf |
| vs. Yankees | 80 | 4 | 5.0% |
| vs. rest of MLB | 457 | 3 | 0.7% |
Saturday, August 6, 2011
Hmmmm
| CC Sabathia 2011 Splits | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | HBP | RA | ERA | FIP | %HBP |
| vs Boston | 0 | 3 | 19.0 | 24 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 3 | 6.16 | 6.16 | 4.20 | 3.3% |
| vs Everyone Else | 16 | 2 | 157.7 | 129 | 44 | 37 | 6 | 36 | 147 | 2 | 2.11 | 2.11 | 2.55 | 0.3% |
Friday, August 5, 2011
The Monkey On Their Backs
By any reasonable viewpoint, the Yankees have had a great year in 2011. They lead MLB in run differential/Pythagorean record, are tied for the top in the best division in baseball and have gotten a lot of good performances from unexpected places. In particular, a pitching staff that was touted as the team’s Achilles’ heel all offseason has been a legitimate strength.
Despite all that, it seems like a lot of us haven’t fully embraced the good things that this team has done, and I think it really just comes down to one thing. This team has gotten its ass handed to it by Boston every time they’ve played this year.
So who to blame? Here are the splits for the Yankees’ hitters vs. Boston and vice versa.
| Player | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | IBB | HBP | K | SB | CS | BA | OBA | SPct | wOBA | BR |
| Derek Jeter | 44 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | .200 | .273 | .225 | .238 | 1.9 |
| Curtis Granderson | 41 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 1 | .229 | .341 | .571 | .383 | 6.6 |
| Mark Teixeira | 38 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | .121 | .211 | .121 | .171 | 0.2 |
| Nick Swisher | 36 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .188 | .278 | .281 | .258 | 2.7 |
| Robinson Cano | 36 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | .281 | .361 | .500 | .374 | 5.8 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 36 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | .194 | .306 | .419 | .319 | 4.4 |
| Brett Gardner | 35 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | .167 | .286 | .267 | .260 | 2.3 |
| Russell Martin | 27 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .227 | .370 | .636 | .419 | 5.1 |
| Jorge Posada | 20 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .400 | .333 | .342 | 2.3 |
| Andruw Jones | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | .182 | .182 | .455 | .259 | 1.0 |
| Eric Chavez | 8 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .750 | .535 | 2.2 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .571 | .667 | .537 | 1.8 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .286 | .167 | .231 | 0.3 |
| Chris Dickerson | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.240 | 0.9 |
| Total | 347 | 37 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 31 | 1 | 10 | 78 | 6 | 3 | .223 | .314 | .384 | .311 | 37.5 |
| Player | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | IBB | HBP | K | SB | CS | BA | OBA | SPct | wOBA | BR |
| Carl Crawford | 40 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .125 | .125 | .200 | .139 | -0.2 |
| David Ortiz | 42 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .324 | .405 | .676 | .451 | 8.8 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 38 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .371 | .421 | .571 | .430 | 7.6 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 44 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .235 | .386 | .500 | .382 | 6.6 |
| Kevin Youkilis | 42 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | .242 | .381 | .424 | .359 | 5.7 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 39 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .500 | .605 | .733 | .556 | 10.9 |
| J.D. Drew | 33 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .280 | .424 | .400 | .376 | 4.6 |
| Marco Scutaro | 22 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .300 | .364 | .450 | .357 | 3.3 |
| Jed Lowrie | 21 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .316 | .333 | .421 | .322 | 2.3 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 20 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .400 | .556 | .412 | 3.6 |
| Jason Varitek | 18 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .333 | .200 | .270 | 1.2 |
| Mike Cameron | 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .273 | .333 | .364 | .289 | 1.2 |
| Total | 372 | 60 | 92 | 18 | 2 | 12 | 59 | 44 | 6 | 5 | 58 | 6 | 1 | .290 | .379 | .473 | .372 | 55.7 |
wOBA: weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs.
Mark Teixeira has been abysmal vs. Boston this year with some support from Derek Jeter, Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner.
Here’s a “fun” stat for you. Dustin Pedroia has provided more offense in 39 PA versus the Yankees than Jeter, Teixeira, Swisher, Gardner and Jorge Posada have provided in 173 PA against Boston (10.9 BR to 9.4 BR). Maybe fun is not the right word.
Boston’s outscored the Yankees at close to a 2-1 rate and if you compare the BR to the actual runs there’s not a lot of evidence of good or bad luck in there.
Two other things I found interesting aggravating are the HBP and IBB columns.
Well, maybe looking at the pitching will cheer us up.
| Player | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | HBP | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Bartolo Colon | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 4.35 | 2.61 | 3.88 |
| Jeff Marquez | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 2.20 |
| Phil Hughes | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | 27.00 | 12.70 |
| Boone Logan | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 3.41 |
| Lance Pendleton | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16.20 | 16.20 | 20.00 |
| Hector Noesi | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.53 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12.27 | 12.27 | 9.75 |
| Ivan Nova | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8.31 | 8.31 | 4.58 |
| Luis Ayala | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.83 |
| Rafael Soriano | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.20 |
| Freddy Garcia | 0 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 11.25 | 10.13 | 9.20 |
| Mariano Rivera | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.20 |
| A.J. Burnett | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12.71 | 11.12 | 6.55 |
| CC Sabathia | 0 | 3 | 19 | 24 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 3 | 6.16 | 6.16 | 4.20 |
| David Robertson | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4.15 | 2.08 | 3.43 |
| Total | 1 | 8 | 79 | 92 | 60 | 55 | 12 | 44 | 58 | 5 | 6.84 | 6.27 | 5.57 |
| Player | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | HBP | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Dan Wheeler | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 1.20 |
| Daniel Bard | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2.08 | 2.08 | 4.12 |
| Jonathan Papelbon | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 0.60 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 4.91 | 3.68 | 6.47 |
| Jon Lester | 2 | 0 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.37 |
| Rich Hill | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| Matt Albers | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.70 |
| Clay Buchholz | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 5.91 | 5.06 | 5.08 |
| John Lackey | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10.80 | 10.80 | 6.80 |
| Felix Doubront | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13.50 | 13.50 | 11.45 |
| Josh Beckett | 3 | 0 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 4 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 2.72 |
| Tim Wakefield | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 6.14 | 6.14 | 5.52 |
| Bobby Jenks | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.20 |
| Total | 8 | 1 | 81 | 68 | 37 | 35 | 10 | 31 | 78 | 10 | 4.11 | 3.89 | 4.40 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
That didn’t really help.
It would have been nice to have Alex Rodriguez back for this series, although maybe Eric Chavez can stay healthy through Sunday (assuming he’s off tonight with Jon Lester pitching).
Pitching matchups for the weekend are Colon vs. Lester tonight, CC vs. Lackey tomorrow, and Garcia vs. Beckett on Sunday. So the Yankees are probably slight underdogs tonight, favorites tomorrow, and strong underdogs Sunday. Logic says we should be happy if they take one of the three, and that’s the most likely scenario, but after losing 8 of 9 to Boston, including all 6 at home, I won’t be happy with anything less than a sweep.
I suppose I could settle for a 2-1 series win.
Seriously though, barring catastrophe both of these teams will be in the postseason, so I suppose we shouldn’t get that worked up about whatever happens here.
Thursday, August 4, 2011
Yankees.com: Nova pitches Yanks to sweep, tie for first
At U.S. Cellular Field on Thursday—less than 24 hours before beginning a weekend series against the Red Sox—the Yankees matched their longest winning streak of the season at seven, moved into a first-place tie after Boston’s loss to the Indians, and got a 4-1 win thanks to another dominant performance by a young starter.
On this night, it was Ivan Nova.
Nova, who made a solid big league return on Saturday and remained in the rotation this week, limited the spiraling White Sox to one run on six hits in 7 2/3 innings to run his season ERA to 3.81 and perhaps give manager Joe Girardi a bigger rotation question than he ever anticipated.
Tonight was the best Nova’s ever pitched IMO.
According to Pitch F/X, Nova threw his first cutter on May 28. Fangraphs says he doesn’t throw a cutter, that it’s a slider. Whatever it is, since he’s started throwing it Nova has been a different pitcher.
| Split | BF | BB/BF | K/BF |
| Through 5/21 | 226 | 9.3% | 11.5% |
| Since 5/28 | 235 | 7.2% | 17.4% |
We of course need to remember that sample size limits how much we can take from this, but it’s worth mentioning that changes in walk rate and strikeout rate tend to stabilize more quickly than a lot of other statistics. For walk rate, changes are generally meaningful after about 150 PA and for strikeout rate it’s about 200 PA.
Unfortunately for Nova, it’s going to be tough for the Yankees to work a six man rotation long-term. Since he won’t be available to pitch for at least three or four days and they’re probably not going to want to go into Fenway with a three man bench, he may get optioned back to AAA despite doing nothing but pitching well since his call up. Even if that happens, I get the sense it won’t be for long. Although there’s a rule that any player optioned to the minors has to spend 10 days down before being recalled, in the case of injury they can usually bypass that rule.
With Boston losing tonight, the Yankees will head to Fenway tied for first place in the AL East. I’ll make a bold prediction. By the end of this weekend’s series one team will be in first place and one will be in second place.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Phil Hughes’ Pitch Location
Saturday, July 23, 2011
NJ.com: Yankees, A.J. Burnett fall to Oakland Athletics, 4-3
NEW YORK — Yankees slugger Mark Teixeira held his pointer finger just apart from his thumb in an attempt to illustrate how narrowly the barrel of his bat missed a cut fastball that could have won the game in the ninth inning today.
Oakland closer Andrew Bailey, a Haddon Township native, rarely throws the cutter, which is designed to zip back toward the hitter at the last second. It was just enough of a shift in movement to keep Teixeira from getting all of the ball, and rounding the bases with a three-run homer.
Whatever.
I am glad I chose to go see a matinee of Captain America instead of this game. Regardless of what happens tomorrow, I am going to guarantee two things.
1) Seattle will enter their series with the Yankees on Monday mired in a 15 game losing streak.
2) Seattle will leave that series with their losing streak over.
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Probable Pitchers: Rays at Yankees, July 7 - 10
Thursday, July 7, 7:05 PM ET
Jeff Niemann (46.3 IP, 5.63 RA, 4.60 FIP) vs. Bartolo Colon (73.0 IP, 2.84 RA, 3.50 FIP)
Friday, July 8, 7:05 PM ET
Jeremy Hellickson (103.7 IP, 3.39 RA, 4.55 FIP) vs. Freddy Garcia (91.0 IP, 3.36 RA, 4.21 FIP)
Saturday, July 9, 1:05 PM ET
David Price (124.0 IP, 3.63 RA, 2.98 FIP) vs. A.J. Burnett (113.7 IP, 4.51 RA, 4.71 FIP)
Sunday, July 10, 1:05 PM ET
James Shields (134.7 IP, 2.74 RA, 3.32 FIP) vs. CC Sabathia (136.7 IP, 3.36 RA, 2.82 FIP)
Saturday looks like a guaranteed loss, and Sunday looks like a coin flip, so let’s hope the Yankees can steal the first two.
Monday, June 27, 2011
Reuters: Los Angeles Dodgers file for bankruptcy
Monday’s filing marks a dramatic attempt by Dodgers owner Frank McCourt to keep the league from seizing the storied team, which he has owned since 2004.
McCourt has been struggling to meet payroll and other financial commitments, having been heavily in debt and locked in a bitter divorce battle with his estranged wife Jamie.
On June 20, the league vetoed a proposed $3 billion, 17-year television contract with Fox, saying it would not be in the best interests of the Dodgers, the game and fans.
The contract included a $385 million upfront payment that McCourt has said was crucial to the Dodgers’ financial health.
Not Yankees-related, but I’m fascinated by what’s happening with the Dodgers. A lot of people were critical about Bud Selig approving Frank McCourt as an owner and it sure looks like they were right. The whole idea behind the Fox television contract as I understand it is to fund McCourt’s divorce, which is obviously taking money from the team on the field.
Maybe having a dummy who pushed for signing Rafael Soriano as a decision-maker in the front office isn’t as bad as some of the alternatives.
For a very good and detailed overview of the situation, I recommend this post:
Monday, June 13, 2011
NY Times: With 18 Hits, the Yankees Are Humming Again
There was no meeting, no pep talk, no nothing after the Yankees were embarrassed by Boston last week. “Report at 4 o’clock the next day, that was it,” Curtis Granderson said. Every series has its own pace, its own rhythm. And at Yankee Stadium the thump-thump-thump of the Red Sox has given way to the off-key stylings of the Cleveland Indians..
The Boston series pissed me off to the point where I haven’t watched an inning of baseball since. I suppose I should be happy that the Yankees are beating up on a slumping Indians team, but if anything it’s just a reminder to me about how pathetic they were against Boston. Maybe I’d feel differently I’d watched the games.
I realize it’s not rational, but who said being a sports fan is rational?
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Just How Awful Have The Yankees Been Against Boston?
The Yankees dropped their seventh game in eight tries against the Red Sox last night in yet another inspired effort. It’s been frustrating to see the way the Yankees have rolled over for the Red Sox this year. What they’ve done is spotted Boston a six game advantage in the standings.
We know the won/loss record is bad. It’s even worse when you realize they’ve played three games in Boston and five(soon to be six) in New York and are on the verge of being swept at home twice. After today the Yankees will only play Boston three more times at home and they still have to play them six times in Fenway, which rarely goes well.
For a team to go 1-7 against another team while playing five of those eight games at home, they’d have to be around a 49 win team playing against a 113 win team. At this point I don’t doubt the Red Sox are better than the Yankees, but I’m not sure that they’re 65 wins better.
So let’s assign the blame.
| Player | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | HBP | K | SB | CS | GDP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAA |
| Russell Martin | 27 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .227 | .370 | .636 | 5 | 2 |
| Robinson Cano | 32 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .286 | .375 | .500 | 5 | 2 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.333 | 2 | 2 |
| Eric Chavez | 8 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .750 | 2 | 1 |
| Curtis Granderson | 36 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .219 | .306 | .500 | 5 | 1 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 32 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .207 | .281 | .448 | 4 | 0 |
| Jorge Posada | 16 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .286 | .375 | .286 | 2 | 0 |
| Andruw Jones | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .182 | .182 | .455 | 1 | 0 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .286 | .167 | 0 | 0 |
| Brett Gardner | 31 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .192 | .323 | .308 | 3 | -1 |
| Nick Swisher | 32 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .207 | .281 | .310 | 3 | -1 |
| Derek Jeter | 39 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .194 | .256 | .222 | 1 | -3 |
| Mark Teixeira | 34 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .138 | .235 | .138 | 1 | -3 |
| Total | 309 | 34 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 7 | 71 | 5 | 2 | 4 | .227 | .314 | .388 | 34 | 0 |
| AL Avg | 309 | 35 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 6 | .253 | .321 | .396 | 34 | 0 |
BR are linear weights batting runs. BRAA are BR above an average AL hitter, not adjusted for position.
Because the offense in MLB is down significantly this year, while that line looks awful relative to our normal context, in the context of today’s AL it’s not that bad. AL average line right now is .253/.321/.396. We also don’t know if that performance is good or bad in the context of the “strength” of the Yankees and the strength of the Red Sox. It’s really only useful in terms of comparing how the players stack up against each other. In this case you can see the Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira are the chief problems on offense, but there’s a whole lot of stinking going on there.
The team’s actual runs scored are a direct match for their batting runs, which indicates they’ve scored as many runs as they should have given their component stats and have not been unlucky or lucky in terms of how their performance has translated to runs on the scoreboard.
There’s more blame to dish out!
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | K | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAA |
| Freddy Garcia | 8.0 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 11.25 | 10.13 | 8.87 | -6.2 |
| A.J. Burnett | 5.7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12.71 | 11.12 | 6.22 | -5.3 |
| Phil Hughes | 2.0 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | 27.00 | 12.37 | -5.0 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 3.7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12.27 | 12.27 | 9.42 | -3.3 |
| Lance Pendleton | 1.7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16.20 | 16.20 | 19.67 | -2.2 |
| Ivan Nova | 4.3 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8.31 | 8.31 | 4.25 | -1.9 |
| CC Sabathia | 12.3 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 5.11 | 5.11 | 4.49 | -1.1 |
| Bartolo Colon | 10.3 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 4.35 | 2.61 | 3.55 | -0.1 |
| Rafael Soriano | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.87 | 0.5 |
| Mariano Rivera | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.87 | 0.5 |
| Hector Noesi | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.20 | 0.9 |
| David Robertson | 4.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2.25 | 0.00 | 3.12 | 0.9 |
| Boone Logan | 4.7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 3.08 | 1.2 |
| Luis Ayala | 5.3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 2.5 |
| Total | 70.0 | 80 | 52 | 47 | 12 | 42 | 4 | 52 | 6.69 | 6.04 | 5.58 | -18.7 |
| AL Avg | 70 | 67 | 33 | 30 | 7 | 25 | 3 | 52 | 4.28 | 3.91 | 3.91 | 0.0 |
RSAA are runs saved compared to an average pitcher using RA vs. league average RA. FIP is Fielding-independent pitching which focuses on a pitcher’s HR, BB/HBP and Ks against. Again, neither of these account for the context of the opponent so it’s more for comparison among Yankees.
I’m thinking the Yankees may want to skip Freddy Garcia’s next turn against Boston. The Yankees have allowed 52 total runs against Boston, and according to linear weights they should have allowed 49, so just like on offense there’s no evidence of bad luck here. They’ve pitched as poorly as the basic stats say they did. The Yankees have a team BABIP against of .281 this season against everyone but Boston. Against Boston it’s .311. Whether that’s on the pitchers or the defense or some combination of both, I don’t know.
It’s sad, but it’s gotten to the point where I am not even bothering to watch these games. When you finish dinner and turn on the game and see your team is already down 3-0 before they’ve even gotten an out, why watch?
I’d like to say I have a good feeling about CC Sabathia going today, but unfortunately with the Yankee offense backing him you get the feeling that anything less than perfection won’t be good enough.
Again, I’ll say I don’t think the Red Sox are 65 wins better than the Yankees. 60, maybe.
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
thetimes-tribune.com: Yanks claim Jeff Marquez
According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Yankees have claimed right-hander Jeff Marquez, a one-time farmhand, off waivers from the White Sox.
Hector Noesi is getting sent down to make room on the 25-man roster for Marquez.
UPDATE: Joba placed on DL, Sanit called up.
This gives new meaning to Shutdown Bullpen™.
Yankees.com: Garcia’s early struggles doom Yankees
NEW YORK—Freddy Garcia’s shortest start of the season put the Yankees in an early hole from which they couldn’t claw out, trailing the whole way in a 6-4 loss to the Red Sox on Tuesday at Yankee Stadium.
—
It was a painful night in more ways than one. In the first inning, Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira was drilled on the right kneecap by Lester, leaving the game with what was diagnosed as a contusion after X-rays were negative.
The Boston Red Sox are now 6-1 against the Boston Doormats.
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
Wall Street Journal: Yankees, Sox Are Finally Looking Like Their Old Selves
First the Red Sox didn’t live up to their end of the bargain, struggling to an 0-6 start early in the season.
Then the reeling Yankees dropped three in a row to the Red Sox at home.
Now, the principles of logic and reason have returned to their Earthly thrones. The Yankees enter this week’s three-game series at Yankee Stadium with 33 wins and 24 losses, and the Red Sox come in a game behind.
The rivals are both playing well and are locked, just as they should be, in a battle for first place in the American League East. “There was a lot of talk early on when they were struggling. Well, they’re not struggling anymore,’’ Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “They’re playing good baseball.”
Would it kill the Yankees to win a series against Boston this year?
Thursday, June 2, 2011
A Brief Foray into Run Differentials and Component Stats
At this point in the season, the Yankees have the second best winning percentage in the AL.
| Team | a% |
| CLE | .623 |
| NYY | .574 |
| BOS | .536 |
| TEX | .536 |
| DET | .527 |
| TBR | .527 |
| SEA | .509 |
| LAA | .500 |
| TOR | .500 |
| OAK | .474 |
| CHW | .466 |
| BAL | .463 |
| KCR | .455 |
| MIN | .315 |
Over a full season at the actual winning percentage the Yankees would be about a 93 win team, with Cleveland at 101.
Now of course over 1/3 of a season actual winning percentage can be misleading since teams might be winning or losing more games than their actual performance merits. So you can look at something like Pythagenpat to get a better sense of how well a team has played so far and what it might mean going forward.
| Team | p% |
| NYY | .629 |
| CLE | .582 |
| TEX | .563 |
| TBR | .543 |
| TOR | .542 |
| BOS | .540 |
| LAA | .506 |
| OAK | .496 |
| DET | .486 |
| CHW | .480 |
| SEA | .478 |
| KCR | .462 |
| BAL | .422 |
| MIN | .322 |
If you do that, the Yankees look more like a 102 win team, which would be eight wins better than Cleveland and 11 wins better than Boston.
Although Pythagenpat does a pretty good job of estimating a team’s level of play, their actual runs scored and runs allowed might be skewed due to better or worse than expected performances in high leverage situations that are not necessarily repeatable going forward.
You can use linear weights batting runs to account for that. What’s nice about doing that is you can put offense and pitching/defense on the same scale if you use all the same components.
| Team | b% |
| NYY | .599 |
| TEX | .568 |
| BOS | .562 |
| CLE | .559 |
| TOR | .533 |
| TBR | .526 |
| OAK | .526 |
| LAA | .524 |
| DET | .504 |
| CHW | .479 |
| SEA | .469 |
| KCR | .435 |
| BAL | .423 |
| MIN | .343 |
This method also shows that the Yankees have played better than any other team in the AL, and would have them at around 97 wins, five wins ahead of Cleveland and six games ahead of Boston.
We do need to be cognizant that how a team has played so far only tells us so much about how good they are now and how good they’ll be going forward. Regression towards the mean, injuries/roster changes and a whole host of other things are going to have an impact on how a team does moving forward.
But at least as of right now, the Yankees have probably been the best team in the league and the difference isn’t trivial.
All this is moot when Rafael Soriano returns to blow games though.
What A Difference Five Days Can Make
On May 28 in this post I referenced some standings projections I’d done at that point, which had the Red Sox projected to end the year around 93-69, with the Yankees at 91-71 and the Rays at 88-74. Here’s how that compares to a re-run as of last night’s games.
| Team | 5/28 xW | 6/1 xW | D xW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 91.2 | 93.2 | 2.0 |
| Blue Jays | 76.6 | 78.5 | 1.9 |
| Rays | 87.5 | 86.6 | -0.9 |
| Orioles | 74.2 | 72.9 | -1.3 |
| Red Sox | 93.1 | 90.1 | -3.0 |
xW: Expected wins
Thank you White Sox.
Enjoy it while you can, since the Angels are going to sweep the Yankees this weekend and effectively return things to how they were on 5/28.
Sunday, May 29, 2011
Inconsistency On Offense
Suppose you had a team that projected to be one of the better if not the best offensive team in baseball heading into the season. Suppose that with just over one-fourth of the season now in the books for the most part they’ve been at or near the top of the league in terms of average runs scored per game. Despite that they’ve been frustrating to watch at times, as it seems they too often score fewer runs than you’d expect given their average runs per game.
In a case like that, you’ll often see the argument made that their average runs scored per game is propped up by a few blowouts, and if you remove those from the average you will have a more realistic assessment of how good they really are.
So let’s take away the top three highest-scoring games from that team and see what their average runs scored per game is.
Yep, if you do that, Boston’s R/G goes from 4.88 to 4.29.
Oh, the Yankees? 5.14 to 4.61.
Saturday, May 28, 2011
TGS NY: Joe’s handling of ‘pen not so mighty
David Robertson got out of a bed in Tuscaloosa, Alabama at 4:30 a.m. Eastern time Friday morning. Nearly 20 hours later, he was on the mound at Safeco Field, doing his job to perfection, pitching an overpowering eighth inning against the Mariners.
Trouble was, the game had already been lost two innings earlier.
But that’s what happens when a manager sticks to a game plan even if the game no longer fits his plan.
Robertson, back from a mission of mercy to his tornado-ravaged hometown, was no doubt the most tired man in the Yankee bullpen. He was also the only one able to do his job. Unfortunately, by the time he was asked to do it, it was too late. At the time, the Yankees trailed 4-3, and that’s the way it would stay.
I didn’t get to watch the game, so I’d be interested in everyone else’s take, but here’s how I see the situation. With Burnett at 97 pitches with five walks through five innings, I don’t think anyone would quibble with the fact that he was pulled prior to the sixth inning. So the question then is who should have started the bottom of the sixth. With Adam Kennedy (LHB), Miguel Olivo (RHB) and Carlos Peguero (LHB) due up, I can understand the thought process behind starting the sixth inning with Boone Logan. You need to get four innings out of your bullpen, so unless you want one of Robertson, Joba Chamberlain or Mariano Rivera to pitch two innings you needed to get some outs from someone other than those three.
Logan allowed a leadoff single to Kennedy. So now with a RHB up and with the likelihood of a pinch-hitter for Peguero to re-gain the platoon advantage, going to the bullpen for a RHP made sense as well. Unfortunately, Girardi opted for Luis Ayala instead of Robertson and that’s when the game was lost.
Ayala probably would have pitched an inning at some point in the game, so the real problem is that he and Logan didn’t do their jobs. However, once Kennedy reached Girardi should have used a better pitcher due to the leverage of the situation, and not the pitcher who’s ordinal spot in the bullpen hierarchy was now due. If you intended to pitch Robertson or Chamberlain if necessary anyway, they’d have been the better choices in that spot. If they extended themselves to get out of the inning, you could then go to Ayala to begin the seventh with whichever of Robertson or Chamberlain wasn’t used as a safety net to get the game to Rivera.
Again, the real issue is that Logan and Ayala didn’t execute. But it’s fair to say that Girardi’s deployment of the bullpen after Logan is also culpable.
The Yankees really don’t have much margin for error on this road trip if you look at the schedule for the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays over the rest of this West Coast swing.
| Date | Yankee | xW | xL | Red Sox | xW | xL | Rays | xW | xL |
| 5/28/2011 | @ Mariners | .58 | .42 | @ Tigers | .53 | .47 | vs Indians | .58 | .42 |
| 5/29/2011 | @ Mariners | .58 | .42 | @ Tigers | .53 | .47 | vs Indians | .58 | .42 |
| 5/30/2011 | @ Athletics | .51 | .49 | vs White Sox | .62 | .38 | vs Rangers | .54 | .46 |
| 5/31/2011 | @ Athletics | .51 | .49 | vs White Sox | .62 | .38 | vs Rangers | .54 | .46 |
| 6/1/2011 | @ Athletics | .51 | .49 | vs White Sox | .62 | .38 | vs Rangers | .54 | .46 |
| 6/2/2011 | @Mariners | .54 | .46 | ||||||
| 6/3/2011 | @ Angels | .54 | .46 | vs Athletics | .59 | .41 | @Mariners | .54 | .46 |
| 6/4/2011 | @ Angels | .54 | .46 | vs Athletics | .59 | .41 | @Mariners | .54 | .46 |
| 6/5/2011 | @ Angels | .54 | .46 | vs Athletics | .59 | .41 | @Mariners | .54 | .46 |
| 4.32 | 3.68 | 4.72 | 3.28 | 4.95 | 4.05 |
At this point Boston and the Rays have around a one game advantage over the Yankees over the next nine days, at which point the Yankees will return home to face Boston, Cleveland and Texas on a nine game home stand. It’s not inconceivable that the Yankees could be trailing Boston and/or Tampa Bay by three or four games by then. And that’s not exactly the kind of home stand that would allow the Yankees to catch up if they falter on the rest of this trip.
Right now I’ve got Boston projected to finish around 93-69, the Yankees around 91-71 and Tampa Bay around 88-74. If that’s how things still look by the end of this road trip I’d happily take it.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Blue Jays (24-24) @ Yankees (26-21), Wednesday, May 25, 2011, 1:05 pm
TOR: Jo-Jo Reyes (26, LHP, 0-3, 4.07) vs. NYY: Dwayne Johnson (34, RHP, 2-4, 3.12)
Lineups
Toronto Blue Jays
Y. Escobar, SS
C. Patterson, LF
J. Bautista, RF
J. Rivera, 1B
J. Molina, C
A. Hill, 2B
E. Thames, DH
R. Davis, CF
J. Nix, 3B
New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS
C. Granderson, CF
M. Teixeira, 1B
A. Rodriguez, DH
R. Cano, 2B
R. Martin, C
N. Swisher, RF
A. Jones, LF
E. Nunez, 3B
Obviously, Martin’s 2nd inning HR yesterday cooled the Yankees’ offense for most of the game. It wasn’t until the 8th inning that the team fully recovered. Here’s to hoping for nothing but singles today.
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Neyer: Mets vs. Yankees: Dickey Pitches Red Sox Into Second Place
The Mets opened the season in fine fashion, taking three of their first four decisions. But since losing their next two games, the Mets have spent all spring—the nadir of which was April 16, when they lost their seventh straight and fell to 4-11—fighting and scratching to get back to .500.
Well, Friday night they got there: 22-22, with their 22nd win the sweetest of all, considering the opposition.
...
Which was just one comeback, and perhaps not the more impressive. The Boston Red Sox opened this season with six straight losses. Exactly two weeks ago, the preseason favorites to win the American League pennant were sitting in last place, five games behind the first-place Yankees.Tonight, though, the Red Sox can thank the New York Mets. Because with the Yankees losing and the Red Sox destroying the Chicago Cubs, 15-5, the Red Sox have somehow passed the Yankees and taken second place, and are just a half-game behind the first place Tampa Bay Rays. And suddenly, it seems that order might be restored to the American League East proceedings before the calendar even turns to June.
Congratulations to the Red Sox on their AL East title, and to the Rays on their AL wild card berth. Good luck in the postseason.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Heat Map: Bartolo Colon vs. Baltimore Orioles (5/18/11)
Bartolo Colon threw 87 pitches yesterday, and while he didn't get the win, he held the Orioles to 3 hits over 8 innings. He threw mostly fastballs (90.8%), a few sliders, and one changeup according to PitchFX data. His fastball averaged a -5.8 BrkX (horizontal movement from spin) reading and 8.5 BrkZ (vertical movement from spin) reading, both slightly better than league average. He yielded 10 ground balls, 5 line drives, and 4 fly balls, while striking out 7. And as you can see, he located his pitches extremely well, avoiding the middle of the plate while jamming lefties up and in. He also threw to the outside edge of the plate to righties and lefties, recording 5 of his strikeouts on pitches away, 4 of them looking.
All heat maps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Sunday, May 15, 2011
NY Post: Selfish squad of pretenders, not contenders
The bottom line is that the Yankees are nothing special right now and haven’t been for quite some time. These Yankees need to get it in gear in so many ways, not just because Posada has had a problem with being “disrespected.” And not just because he removed himself from the lineup an hour before the 6-0 loss to the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium, saying he “couldn’t play” and needed time to “clear my head.”
I have no opinions on the headline and/or the teams’ alleged selfishness. I just think this team is tough to watch right now. I’m also frustrated that they’ve pissed away the chance to take advantage of Boston and Tampa Bay’s slow start to the year.
Losing five of six games at home to Kansas City and Boston is a disaster, and one that looks like a distinct possibility with Jon Lester going tonight against Freddy Garcia. After tonight the Yankees then have to go to Tampa Bay for two games where of course they’ll draw David Price and James Shields in those games.
Friday, May 13, 2011
The Implications of this Weekend’s Series with Boston
The Red Sox have been playing better since their rough start but are still trying to fight their way to .500. The Yankees have stumbled a bit over their last ten games, losing 6 and are now in second place in the AL East behind the Tampa Bay Rays, although even in the loss column.
So with a three game set beginning tonight in the Bronx between the Yankees and Boston, here’s a look at how the different ways this series may affect the AL East going forward.
First of all, here’s how my Monte Carlo simulator says the AL East would play out as of today.
| Team | W | L | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 85.8 | 76.2 | 14.6% | 17.6% | 32.1% |
| Yankees | 92.1 | 69.9 | 50.8% | 23.7% | 74.5% |
| Rays | 89.8 | 72.2 | 34.3% | 27.6% | 61.9% |
| Blue Jays | 74.1 | 87.9 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| Orioles | 74.5 | 87.5 | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% |
W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
When Boston sweeps this series, here’s how things will look.
| Team | W | L | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 87.5 | 74.5 | 23.2% | 22.1% | 45.3% |
| Yankees | 90.3 | 71.7 | 38.2% | 25.3% | 63.4% |
| Rays | 90.0 | 72.0 | 38.0% | 23.5% | 61.5% |
| Blue Jays | 73.6 | 88.4 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Orioles | 74.5 | 87.5 | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% |
There’s a miniscule chance the Yankees take one of the three games, and if that were to happen here’s how things would shake out.
| Team | W | L | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 86.4 | 75.6 | 15.8% | 20.9% | 36.6% |
| Yankees | 91.5 | 70.5 | 46.9% | 24.5% | 71.5% |
| Rays | 90.0 | 72.0 | 37.1% | 23.8% | 60.9% |
| Blue Jays | 73.8 | 88.2 | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
| Orioles | 74.1 | 87.9 | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
I suppose there’s an infinitesimal chance the Yankees take two of three games in which case here’s how things would project going forward.
| Team | W | L | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 85.7 | 76.3 | 13.8% | 18.6% | 32.4% |
| Yankees | 91.9 | 70.1 | 50.4% | 23.6% | 73.9% |
| Rays | 90.2 | 71.8 | 35.4% | 27.5% | 62.9% |
| Blue Jays | 74.3 | 87.7 | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% |
| Orioles | 74.0 | 88.0 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
In the completely theoretical and impossible scenario where the Yankees sweep, this would be the net result.
| Team | W | L | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 84.6 | 77.4 | 10.6% | 15.6% | 26.1% |
| Yankees | 93.5 | 68.5 | 58.3% | 24.5% | 82.8% |
| Rays | 89.9 | 72.1 | 30.5% | 28.8% | 59.3% |
| Blue Jays | 73.6 | 88.4 | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| Orioles | 74.3 | 87.7 | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% |
One of my foibles is superstition. Because of that, I see no way a series against Boston that kicks off on a Friday the 13th is going to go well. Hopefully I’m wrong.
Thursday, April 7, 2011
The Implications of This Weekend’s Series with Boston
You may or may not have heard, but the best team in baseball history has gotten off to a rough start at 0-6. It’s important to understand what that means in the big picture. It’s too small of a sample size to meaningfully change our estimate of how good they are. However, those games do count, and they do need to be factored into whatever we forecast Boston to do going forward.
If Boston was a 94-95 win team over 162 games at the start of the year, they’re probably still a 94-95 win team. However, they only have 156 games left to play. At the same winning percentage, they’re more like a 91 win team now. Here’s a quick look at the average projections for the AL East at the start of the season according to the aggregate from the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout.
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 94.4 | 67.6 | 817 | 687 | 42.1% | 17.8% | 59.8% |
| Yankees | 92.4 | 69.6 | 812 | 707 | 32.8% | 18.2% | 51.0% |
| Rays | 86.1 | 75.9 | 762 | 704 | 16.0% | 13.4% | 29.4% |
| Orioles | 78.6 | 83.4 | 748 | 777 | 6.0% | 6.5% | 12.5% |
| Blue Jays | 73.9 | 88.1 | 686 | 751 | 3.1% | 3.2% | 6.3% |
W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
It’s certainly possible that some of these projections were wrong from the start, but we don’t have enough information to know that yet.
Re-running that exercise taking into account what’s actually happened to this point gives us these revised results.
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Yankees | 92.1 | 69.9 | 812 | 707 | 40.2% | 16.4% | 56.6% |
| Red Sox | 91.1 | 70.9 | 817 | 687 | 36.5% | 19.3% | 55.8% |
| Rays | 81.8 | 80.2 | 762 | 704 | 12.9% | 9.5% | 22.4% |
| Orioles | 77.8 | 84.2 | 748 | 777 | 6.3% | 6.9% | 13.2% |
| Blue Jays | 73.5 | 88.5 | 686 | 751 | 4.2% | 3.5% | 7.6% |
So if everything played out as projected going forward (it won’t), the Yankees are now slight favorites in the AL East. That was easy enough.
Using that as our new baseline, here are how those would look depending on the various potential results of the Yankees’ three game series in Fenway this weekend.
Boston Sweeps
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 92.4 | 69.6 | 817 | 687 | 41.3% | 18.2% | 59.5% |
| Yankees | 90.1 | 71.9 | 812 | 707 | 34.1% | 16.9% | 51.1% |
| Rays | 83.0 | 79.0 | 762 | 704 | 14.0% | 10.8% | 24.8% |
| Orioles | 78.3 | 83.7 | 748 | 777 | 7.8% | 6.9% | 14.7% |
| Blue Jays | 73.0 | 89.1 | 686 | 751 | 2.8% | 3.5% | 6.3% |
This is basically how things looked in the preseason, with Boston about two games better than the Yankees.
Boston wins 2 of 3
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 91.4 | 70.6 | 817 | 687 | 37.3% | 17.3% | 54.6% |
| Yankees | 91.3 | 70.7 | 812 | 707 | 35.9% | 18.0% | 53.9% |
| Rays | 82.4 | 79.6 | 762 | 704 | 15.7% | 11.5% | 27.1% |
| Orioles | 78.3 | 83.7 | 748 | 777 | 7.8% | 7.8% | 15.6% |
| Blue Jays | 73.4 | 88.6 | 686 | 751 | 3.4% | 3.3% | 6.7% |
For all intents and purposes that makes things a dead heat.
Yankees win 2 of 3
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Yankees | 92.0 | 70.0 | 812 | 707 | 40.6% | 18.6% | 59.1% |
| Red Sox | 90.6 | 71.4 | 817 | 687 | 35.9% | 18.1% | 53.9% |
| Rays | 81.9 | 80.1 | 762 | 704 | 13.0% | 9.4% | 22.4% |
| Orioles | 78.6 | 83.4 | 748 | 777 | 8.0% | 7.7% | 15.7% |
| Blue Jays | 72.8 | 89.2 | 686 | 751 | 2.6% | 3.7% | 6.3% |
While not my ideal scenario, I would approve of this outcome.
Yankees Sweep
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Yankees | 93.9 | 68.1 | 812 | 707 | 47.2% | 17.0% | 64.2% |
| Red Sox | 89.3 | 72.7 | 817 | 687 | 29.6% | 16.8% | 46.4% |
| Rays | 82.3 | 79.7 | 762 | 704 | 13.4% | 10.7% | 24.1% |
| Orioles | 77.7 | 84.3 | 748 | 777 | 6.5% | 6.5% | 13.0% |
| Blue Jays | 73.1 | 88.9 | 686 | 751 | 3.3% | 3.6% | 6.9% |
This is my preferred result.
These odds can swing pretty wildly after just a few games, so don’t take them too seriously. This is particularly true in baseball where divisional rivals play each other so frequently.
Now obviously it’s really early in the season and we have no idea what will actually happen, but can you imagine the hysteria if the Yankees take all three games?
Looking at the pitching matchups, the Yankees are probably underdogs in the first two games.
Friday, April 8
Phil “88 mph” Hughes vs. John “World Series Hero” Lackey
Saturday, April 9
Ivan Nova vs. Clay Buchholz
The good news is they should probably be slight favorites in the finale
Sunday, April 10
CC “Future Red Sock” Sabathia vs. Josh “Guardian of playing the game right” Beckett
So the most likely scenario is that the Red Sox take two of three, and really that’s fine with me. I just don’t want to see the Yankees get swept.
Monday, April 4, 2011
2011 March/April Expectations
I was looking at the Yankees’ early season schedule and wanted to see what a reasonable expectation is for their performance over the next month. So using the 2011 CAIRO projected team W/L records and Bill James’s log 5 expected win method, here’s how things look.
| Date | Game | xW | xL | aW | aL | aW-xW | cxW | cxL | caW | caL | caW-cxW |
| 3/31/2011 | vs Tigers | .61 | .39 | 1 | 0 | .39 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| 4/2/2011 | vs Tigers | .61 | .39 | 1 | 0 | .39 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| 4/3/2011 | vs Tigers | .61 | .39 | 0 | 1 | -.61 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 4/4/2011 | vs Twins | .61 | .39 | 2.4 | 1.6 | ||||||
| 4/5/2011 | vs Twins | .61 | .39 | 3.0 | 2.0 | ||||||
| 4/6/2011 | vs Twins | .61 | .39 | 3.6 | 2.4 | ||||||
| 4/7/2011 | vs Twins | .61 | .39 | 4.2 | 2.8 | ||||||
| 4/8/2011 | @ Red Sox | .45 | .55 | 4.7 | 3.3 | ||||||
| 4/9/2011 | @ Red Sox | .45 | .55 | 5.1 | 3.9 | ||||||
| 4/10/2011 | @ Red Sox | .45 | .55 | 5.6 | 4.4 | ||||||
| 4/12/2011 | vs Orioles | .64 | .36 | 6.2 | 4.8 | ||||||
| 4/13/2011 | vs Orioles | .64 | .36 | 6.9 | 5.1 | ||||||
| 4/14/2011 | vs Orioles | .64 | .36 | 7.5 | 5.5 | ||||||
| 4/15/2011 | vs Rangers | .56 | .44 | 8.1 | 5.9 | ||||||
| 4/16/2011 | vs Rangers | .56 | .44 | 8.6 | 6.4 | ||||||
| 4/17/2011 | vs Rangers | .56 | .44 | 9.2 | 6.8 | ||||||
| 4/19/2011 | @ Blue Jays | .57 | .43 | 9.8 | 7.2 | ||||||
| 4/20/2011 | @ Blue Jays | .57 | .43 | 10.3 | 7.7 | ||||||
| 4/22/2011 | @ Orioles | .56 | .44 | 10.9 | 8.1 | ||||||
| 4/23/2011 | @ Orioles | .56 | .44 | 11.5 | 8.5 | ||||||
| 4/24/2011 | @ Orioles | .56 | .44 | 12.0 | 9.0 | ||||||
| 4/25/2011 | vs White Sox | .61 | .39 | 12.6 | 9.4 | ||||||
| 4/26/2011 | vs White Sox | .61 | .39 | 13.2 | 9.8 | ||||||
| 4/27/2011 | vs White Sox | .61 | .39 | 13.8 | 10.2 | ||||||
| 4/28/2011 | vs White Sox | .61 | .39 | 14.4 | 10.6 | ||||||
| 4/29/2011 | vs Blue Jays | .65 | .35 | 15.1 | 10.9 | ||||||
| 4/30/2011 | vs Blue Jays | .65 | .35 | 15.7 | 11.3 |
xW: Expected win probability
xL: Expected loss probability
aW: Actual win
aL: Actual loss
aW-xW: Actual win minus expected win. Positive is good, negative is bad
cxW: Cumulative xW
cxL: Cumulative expected losses
caW: Cumulative actual wins
caL: Cumulative actual losses
caW-cxW: Cumulative actual wins minus cumulative expected wins
The key thing here is the home/road split. The Yankees play 19 of their first 27 games at home, which is a big advantage. Of course, that then means that at some point in the year they’re going to play a whole bunch of games on the road, which is a disadvantage. The Yankees play 47 of their first 81 games at home(58%), which means the second half of the season has the potential to be rough. So, if they want to leave April on a pace that would match their season-long expectations, they really need to go 16-11 or so. Well, actually 14-10 since they took two of three from Detroit which puts them about 0.2 wins ahead of these expectations.
Since I know someone will ask, Boston has to play 15 of their first 27 games on the road. In an eerie coincidence they have the exact same log5 expected record. That’s because their games are against a somewhat weaker group of opponents. If you sum the projected winning percentages of each team’s opponents on a game by game basis, the Yankees collective opponents have a winning percentage of about .508 and the Red Sox have an opponent winning percentage of .502. It’s a difference of about a game over a month. Since the Red Sox got swept in Texas, they’re currently about 1.5 games off their expectations and need to go something like 16-8 through the end of April to catch up.
If the aggregate results of the 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout were accurate, the Red Sox were projected as being about two games better than the Yankees. Since the Yankees are now 0.2 wins ahead of where they projected to be and Boston’s 1.5 games behind where they’re projected to be, the two teams are essentially on equal footing now. So it’ll be a dogfight for the wild card behind the surging Baltimore Orioles.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
NY Post: Report: Showalter rips Jeter
Showalter, the former Yankees skipper who took command of the Orioles last season, told the magazine he “screamed” at the Bombers’ captain last season at Yankee Stadium.
“Our guys are thinking, ‘Wow, he’s screaming at Derek Jeter.’ Well, he’s always jumping back from balls just off the plate. I know how many calls that team gets—and yes, he [ticks] me off.”
Showalter also blasted the Red Sox, mocking the notion that Boston’s biggest offseason acquisitions—Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez—were indicative of general manager Theo Epstein’s savvy.
“I’d like to see how smart Theo Epstein is with the Tampa Bay [Rays] payroll,” Showalter said. “You got Carl Crawford ‘cause you paid more than anyone else, and that’s what makes you smarter? That’s why I like whipping their butt.
Buck hates Jeter and the Red Sox? Sounds like he reads this blog.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Phillies @ Yankees : February, 26, 2011, 1:00 PM ET **Spring Training Chatter**
The game’s on YES. Tune in to see Derek Jeter’s first ground out of 2011 and Bartolo Colon’s final appearance as a Yankee.
Monday, January 31, 2011
Lohud: Jennings - Yankees reportedly out on Duchscherer
After an earlier report that the Orioles might be the favorite for Duchscherer, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports that Duchscherer has narrowed his options to Baltimore, Seattle and Washington.
This probably means the Yankees will push harder on Freddy Garcia, but I’d have preferred Duchscherer. It’s kind of unlikely he’d have held up for a full season in the rotation, but who knows?
If Baltimore adds Vlad Guerrero, they’re going to be an interesting team. Right now I have them projected as around a 77-78 win team, but Duscherer plus Vlad might push them to .500 or so.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Updated Still Too Early 2011 AL East Standings Projection
With the Rays signing Johnny Damon/Manny Ramirez and the Jays trading Vernon Wells for Mike Napoli/Juan Rivera I was curious to see how it may AL East projected standings from this post may have changed, and here it is.
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 94.9 | 67.1 | 834 | 693 | 45.5% | 16.3% | 61.8% |
| Yankees | 90.3 | 71.7 | 819 | 739 | 25.4% | 17.4% | 42.8% |
| Rays | 88.1 | 73.9 | 736 | 663 | 19.8% | 15.1% | 34.9% |
| Blue Jays | 77.9 | 84.1 | 721 | 738 | 5.6% | 5.6% | 11.2% |
| Orioles | 75.5 | 86.5 | 732 | 796 | 3.8% | 4.0% | 7.8% |
W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
Things appear to be getting pretty tight. This is going to make Boston beating out the 1927 Yankees as “best team of evah” particularly noteworthy.
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Question Of The Day
Would you rather have?
a) Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez, a first round draft pick in a deep draft and $28.75 million dollars
b) Rafael Soriano
Saturday, January 1, 2011
NESN: 2011 Red Sox Will Challenge 1927 Yankees for Title of Greatest Team in Major League History
The 2001 Mariners won 116 regular-season games to set the American League record for most wins in a single season and tie the 1906 Cubs for the major league record (though the North Siders accomplished the feat in 152 games). Both those teams failed to win the World Series. The Cubs lost to the White Sox in six games in the Fall Classic. The Mariners didn’t even make it that far, falling to the Yankees in five games in the ALCS.
The Red Sox have no intention of suffering a similar fate. The way they are constructed, they could surpass the 116-win mark, but nothing less than a World Series title will make Boston happy.
If we assume the Red Sox are about a 98 win team in terms of true talent, then they have about a 0.026 (2.6%) chance of winning 116 games. If we assume that the postseason version of the Red Sox is in fact a 116 win team, and they have to advance through three rounds of postseason series against .500 level opponents they’d have about a 0.367 (36.7%) chance of winning the World Series.
0.026 times 0.367 = 0.009 (0.9%).
I’m going to go out on a limb and say the author is wrong.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Extremely Early CAIRO 2011 MLB Projected Standings
Around this time every year I like to run projected standings for the upcoming MLB season. It’s very limited in telling us much about how 2011 will play out since there are still a lot of roster changes coming, but it may give us some sense of how the offseason has impacted teams to this point and it also shows us how things would look if nothing changed from now until April. Which won’t happen.
Since this point is not readily comprehensible for people of limited intelligence I’ll reiterate it. It’s too early to construct meaningful rosters for a lot of teams, so these projections will favor the teams that have essentially completed their 2011 rosters.
In addition to that, projection systems are inherently limited. They are designed to estimate a player’s true talent based on what they’ve done so far and also by factoring in things like age and how similar players have performed in the past. They will generally be in the ballpark for the general population of MLB players, but they can miss significantly on individual players which can obviously affect certain teams more heavily than others.
So, anyway, using the depth charts from the wonderful MLB Depth Charts and includng playing time from players on the 40 man roster who don’t necessarily figure to be part of the the opening day 25 man rosters to account for organizational depth and playing out next season 10,000 times, here’s how CAIRO v0.3 sees things as of December 27, 2010.
| Date | 12/28/2010 | |||||||||
| Iterations | 10000 | |||||||||
| American League | ||||||||||
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Red Sox | 98.1 | 63.9 | 856 | 690 | 54.6% | 15.6% | 70.2% | 9.1 | 38 | -54 |
| Yankees | 89.1 | 72.9 | 835 | 740 | 23.2% | 21.7% | 44.9% | -5.9 | -24 | 47 |
| Rays | 87.1 | 74.9 | 707 | 640 | 17.9% | 18.7% | 36.6% | -8.9 | -95 | -9 |
| Blue Jays | 74.1 | 87.9 | 693 | 737 | 2.6% | 5.8% | 8.4% | -10.9 | -62 | 9 |
| Orioles | 70.1 | 91.9 | 723 | 813 | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.1 | 110 | 28 |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Twins | 85.7 | 76.3 | 752 | 715 | 33.3% | 6.2% | 39.5% | -8.3 | -29 | 44 |
| White Sox | 84.5 | 77.5 | 735 | 711 | 28.4% | 6.2% | 34.5% | -3.5 | -17 | 7 |
| Tigers | 84.0 | 78.0 | 727 | 712 | 27.5% | 4.6% | 32.0% | 3.0 | -24 | -31 |
| Indians | 73.9 | 88.1 | 728 | 802 | 8.2% | 2.7% | 10.8% | 4.9 | 82 | 50 |
| Royals | 66.9 | 95.1 | 678 | 815 | 2.8% | 1.1% | 3.9% | -0.1 | 2 | -30 |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Rangers | 89.2 | 72.8 | 746 | 673 | 50.1% | 4.5% | 54.6% | -0.8 | -41 | -14 |
| Athletics | 82.1 | 79.9 | 678 | 667 | 26.1% | 4.3% | 30.4% | 1.1 | 15 | 41 |
| Angels | 77.9 | 84.1 | 665 | 690 | 15.5% | 3.2% | 18.7% | -2.1 | -16 | -12 |
| Mariners | 72.2 | 89.8 | 635 | 703 | 8.4% | 2.5% | 10.9% | 11.2 | 122 | 5 |
| National League | ||||||||||
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Phillies | 96.1 | 65.9 | 754 | 618 | 54.5% | 11.0% | 65.5% | -0.9 | -18 | -22 |
| Braves | 88.5 | 73.5 | 754 | 690 | 26.6% | 13.3% | 39.9% | -2.5 | 16 | 61 |
| Mets | 76.6 | 85.4 | 675 | 702 | 7.1% | 4.5% | 11.6% | -2.4 | 19 | 50 |
| Marlins | 77.3 | 84.7 | 679 | 708 | 8.7% | 5.0% | 13.7% | -2.7 | -40 | -9 |
| Nationals | 72.4 | 89.6 | 659 | 733 | 3.2% | 2.0% | 5.2% | 13.4 | -51 | -141 |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Cardinals | 90.2 | 71.8 | 746 | 676 | 35.0% | 12.0% | 47.0% | 4.2 | 10 | 35 |
| Brewers | 87.2 | 74.8 | 698 | 650 | 27.9% | 8.9% | 36.7% | 10.2 | -52 | -154 |
| Reds | 85.5 | 76.5 | 723 | 689 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 31.7% | -5.5 | -67 | 4 |
| Cubs | 79.3 | 82.7 | 742 | 761 | 10.5% | 6.3% | 16.8% | 4.3 | 57 | -6 |
| Pirates | 67.7 | 94.3 | 671 | 808 | 2.1% | 1.2% | 3.3% | -6.3 | 28 | 38 |
| Astros | 65.8 | 96.2 | 604 | 732 | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.8 | -32 | -36 |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Rockies | 85.9 | 76.1 | 768 | 732 | 31.7% | 5.9% | 37.6% | 2.9 | -2 | 15 |
| Giants | 84.2 | 77.8 | 699 | 667 | 24.1% | 6.6% | 30.6% | -7.8 | 2 | 84 |
| Dodgers | 83.3 | 78.7 | 677 | 659 | 20.3% | 7.2% | 27.5% | 3.3 | 10 | -33 |
| Padres | 81.2 | 80.8 | 647 | 652 | 17.7% | 5.0% | 22.6% | -8.8 | -18 | 71 |
| Diamondbacks | 73.8 | 88.2 | 690 | 757 | 6.4% | 1.9% | 8.3% | 3.8 | -30 | -25 |
W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)
The only reason I am showing wins and losses to one decimal place is so I don’t have to answer questions about why the wins and losses don’t add up to exactly 2430. There is no way to imply that something like this can be precise to that level.
Did I mention that it’s still too early to do this, and that it shouldn’t be taken seriously?
I guess it’s not exactly news that Boston and Philadelphia look to be the two best teams in baseball right now. Although it’s easy for lazy analysts to make the claim that Tampa Bay is going to be bad because they lost Carl Crawford and their whole bullpen, it’s just not true. They’ve won the AL East in two of the past three seasons, and they have a ton of pitching talent in the minors. Jake McGee looks like a potentially dominant closer. They also won 96 games last year despite getting very little production out of first base and DH. Losing Crawford hurts, but Desmond Jennings is another good prospect who has a chance to mitigate that a bit as well.
Toronto tends to project worse than they actually end up doing every year, mainly because they’ve always seemed to get better than expected pitching. They’ve lost John Buck and Shaun Marcum from last year’s team, and CAIRO is expecting Jose Bautista will not hit 54 HRs again which explains most of their drop.
The Orioles tend to project better than they actually end up doing every year, but perhaps they’ll Buck that trend in 2011.
As for our Yankees, they’re still a good team. They’re just not as good as Boston on paper right now. That doesn’t mean they can’t win the division, it just means that they need some players to exceed their projections (A.J.?) and/or some players from Boston/Tampa Bay to underperform some of their’s. If they can add Andy Pettitte or some league average starter who can give them 180 innings or so that’s probably worth another two wins over Ivan Nova/Sergio Mitre.
Right now the AL Central looks pretty tightly bunched at the top between the White Sox, Tigers and Twins. Cleveland should be able to hold off KC for fourth place, although if Melky-mania runs wild who knows?
The West looks like Texas’s to lose, even without Cliff “The Big Train” Lee. LA of A could pick up about three wins if they sign Adrian Beltre, but that alone doesn’t seem like it’d be enough to get them up to Texas’s level.
I don’t know if the Phillies are as good as Boston, although they may be a better short series team. They are almost certainly the tallest midget in the circus known as the National League, but they’re not some 110 win juggernaut on paper. The Braves seem to be the second best team in the NL East and should at least be a strong contender for the wild card.
The Cardinals still appear to have the best front-line talent in the NL Central although Milwaukee has improved themselves significantly. The Reds are not far off from the top either.
The NL West is also tightly bunched at the top, with only about four wins separating first place through fourth.
Did I mention that it’s too early for this to be taken too seriously?
Friday, December 3, 2010
ESPN Boston: Source: Sox courted Mariano Rivera
BOSTON—The Red Sox offered reliever Mariano Rivera a two-year, $30 million deal and were prepared to non-tender closer Jonathan Papelbon, according to a baseball source with direct knowledge of the negotiations.
Rivera turned down the Red Sox to return to the Yankees, who offered the same money as Boston. Rivera’s pending agreement with the Yankees was first reported by the New York Daily News.
If Mo wound up in Boston, it’d be the worst baseball moment since they canceled the 2004 ALCS after Game 3.
Monday, November 1, 2010
MLB.com: Giants win the Series! Giants win the Series!
ARLINGTON—Go ahead, say it. It’s no longer mere fantasy or sheer folly to do so. A rare mix of veteran rejects and budding stars completed an unlikely ascent to the Major League summit Monday night, allowing all to repeat a five-word phrase never before heard:
World Series champion San Francisco Giants. The Giants made franchise history with a 3-1 triumph over the Rangers in Game 5 of the World Series, ignoring their underdog status to capture the 106th Fall Classic, four games to one.
You know Suzyn…
Seriously, congratulations to the Giants and their fans. I tend to root for the AL team in the World Series unless their name starts with a B and ends with an X, but I found myself pulling for the Giants and I’m glad they pulled it off.
I’m also glad they single-handedly ended the Cliff Lee = best pitcher ever meme that was getting really tiresome to listen to and/or read about.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Yankees.com: We’ll CC you in Texas: Yanks force Game 6
NEW YORK—There is no one the Yankees would rather throw in a potential elimination game than CC Sabathia, and the ace left-hander delivered hope, pitching six solid innings to force the American League Championship Series back to Texas with a 7-2 victory over the Rangers on Wednesday.
Facing elimination, the Yankees’ dreams of a 41st AL pennant remain alive as they attempt to become just the fifth team in history to recover from a 3-1 series deficit and advance to the World Series. The ALCS returns to Rangers Ballpark for Game 6 on Friday at 8 p.m. ET.
It wasn’t exactly CC’s best game, but it was enough, especially with Curtis Granderson continuing to hit. And while Robinson Cano may not end up getting the 2010 AL MVP, he’s certainly been the Yankees’ MVP in the postseason.
One game at a time.
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Hughes with Two Strikes
Phil Hughes had a little trouble with two strikes against the Rangers’ hitters on Saturday. He went to two strikes on two lefty batters, walking one and yielding a double to the other. After two strikes to 10 right handed Rangers, Hughes allowed 4 hits (2 doubles, 1 triple) while striking out 3.
Phil Hughes Contact Rate with 2 Strikes (26 pitches)
Phil Hughes In Play Rate with 2 Strikes (26 pitches)
The top map shows the contact rate (number of balls in play + fouls / number of swings) against Phil Hughes with two strikes on Saturday. Too much red there. The bottom map shows the in play rate (balls put in play / swings). It seemed as though Hughes was trying to elevate his pitches with two strikes against the Rangers, but they weren’t missing. Just for comparison, here’s his 2010 in play map:
2010 Phil Hughes In Play Rate with 2 Strikes to RHB (1016492 pitches)
UPDATE: Just realized I only put up the in play rate for RHB. Here it is for LHB:
2010 Phil Hughes In Play Rate with 2 Strikes to LHB (524 pitches)
All heatmaps courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Saturday, October 16, 2010
ALCS Game One Strikezone
Here are the heatmaps for both C.J. Wilson and CC Sabathia from last night’s ALCS Game One, separated by balls and called strikes as determined by home plate umpire Gerry Davis.
Early in the game, it seemed as though Sabathia was not getting the paint on the inside outside corner to lefty righty batters. However, it looks like Gerry Davis wasn’t calling pitches on the upper left side of the zone much for either pitcher. It just seemed to harm CC more since he kept trying to hit that spot early on.
However, when comparing Wilson’s called strikes to Sabathia’s called balls, it appears Wilson was getting that lower right portion of the zone more. In fact, CC seemed to miss out on a few calls that were probably within that lower right portion of the strikezone.
UDPATE:
Just realized there’s a nifty “Called Strike Rate” heatmap available. Sorry. I’m still getting used to the software.
Here they are for both pitchers:
All heatmaps courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Should We Be Rooting For the Rays or Rangers Tonight?
I was thinking about this last night, and was wondering about how the Yankees matched up against their two potential opponents in the ALCS. I’m not going to run through all the projections and stuff now, but I was just curious about how the teams matched up in terms of platoon advantage.
In a seven game series, it’s likely the Yankees would try and get at least four games out of lefties, but maybe even five if they try and start CC Sabathia on three days rest twice. So a team that has more righties would be a harder matchup.
Using rough depth charts, here’s how the Ray, Rangers and Yankees compare in terms of PA by batter-hand over a seven game series.
Rays: 115 PA by RHB, 124 PA by LHB, 26 PA by switch-hitters
Rangers: 151 PA by RHB, 80 PA by LHB, 25 PA by switch-hitters
Yankees: 86 PA by RHP, 81 PA by LHB, 99 PA by switch-hitters
Of course the quality of the hitters matters, which this ignores.
On the pitching side, here’s how they compare in terms of batters faced by pitcher hand.
Rays: 195 PA by RHP, 66 BF by LHP
Rangers: 183 BF by RHP, 75 BF by LHP
Yankees: 118 BF by RHP, 144 BF by LHP
If you knew nothing about any of these teams except these numbers, you’d say the Yankees match up better against the Rays, who don’t have as many left-handed pitchers or right-handed batters.
Of course, we do know more than that. On paper the Rays look like the better team, and since I hate the wild card it’d be nice if they advanced and the Yankees beat them as a sort of solace for failing to win the division. But I have a hunch that Texas would be a more difficult opponent with the way they match up.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
2010 ALDS Preview: Rangers vs. Rays
Who will the Twins play in the next round?
Since Joe Maddon took his time to get his roster in, this is going to be be quick.
Here are the Rangers’s position player projections.
| Lineup | Pos | 2010 OBP | 2010 wOBA | Proj OBP | Proj wOBA | PA | Outs | BR | Def |
| Elvis Andrus | SS | .335 | .296 | .310 | .309 | 20 | 14 | 2 | 0.1 |
| Michael Young | 3B | .331 | .336 | .340 | .341 | 20 | 13 | 3 | -0.3 |
| Josh Hamilton | CF | .411 | .444 | .366 | .392 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0.0 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | DH | .346 | .361 | .355 | .374 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0.0 |
| Nelson Cruz | RF | .372 | .405 | .343 | .374 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Ian Kinsler | 2B | .380 | .357 | .352 | .357 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0.1 |
| Mitch Moreland | 1B | .360 | .362 | .319 | .316 | 15 | 10 | 2 | 0.1 |
| Bengie Molina | C | .292 | .275 | .286 | .302 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Julio Borbon | LF | .304 | .287 | .314 | .297 | 10 | 7 | 1 | -0.1 |
| Andres Blanco | 2B | .326 | .298 | .311 | .297 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0.0 |
| David Murphy | LF | .355 | .356 | .334 | .340 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Cristian Guzman | SS | .308 | .289 | .305 | .302 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Chris Davis | 1B | .279 | .267 | .286 | .319 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Matt Treanor | C | .285 | .266 | .289 | .277 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Jorge Cantu | 1B | .301 | .302 | .317 | .330 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.0 |
The biggest issue the Rangers probably have on the position player side is Josh Hamilton’s health. He’s playing through a rib injury and it may affect his availablity and his effectiveness.
And their pitching projections,
| Pitcher | Role | 2010 RA | 2010 FIP | Proj RA | Proj FIP | IP | R |
| Cliff Lee | SP1 | 3.56 | 2.59 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 14 | 5.8 |
| C.J. Wilson | SP2 | 3.66 | 3.59 | 3.93 | 3.68 | 6 | 2.6 |
| Colby Lewis | SP3 | 4.04 | 3.51 | 4.70 | 4.03 | 6 | 3.1 |
| Tommy Hunter | SP4 | 3.87 | 4.99 | 5.19 | 4.98 | 5 | 2.9 |
| Neftali Feliz | CL | 2.73 | 2.97 | 4.13 | 3.60 | 3 | 1.4 |
| Darren O’Day | SU | 2.18 | 3.58 | 3.26 | 3.61 | 3 | 1.1 |
| Darren Oliver | MR | 2.97 | 2.64 | 3.41 | 3.43 | 3 | 1.1 |
| Derek Holland | MR | 4.71 | 4.04 | 5.94 | 4.63 | 2 | 1.3 |
| Alexi Ogando | MR | 1.33 | 3.16 | 3.75 | 3.77 | 2 | 0.8 |
| Dustin Nippert | MR | 4.37 | 4.95 | 5.47 | 4.97 | 1 | 0.6 |
Texas has got a pretty good pitching staff, especially when you account for the historical tendency of their home park to boost offense. Obviously Cliff Lee’s as good as any pitcher out there, and having him going twice in a series is a pretty good thing.
As far as the AL East champs, here are their projections.
| Lineup | Pos | 2010 OBP | 2010 wOBA | Proj OBP | Proj wOBA | PA | Outs | BR | Def |
| John Jaso | C | .371 | .343 | .343 | .324 | 15 | 10 | 2 | -0.1 |
| Carlos Pena | 1B | .324 | .325 | .352 | .366 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 0.0 |
| Sean Rodriguez | 2B | .305 | .312 | .323 | .338 | 20 | 14 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Jason Bartlett | SS | .318 | .298 | .332 | .318 | 20 | 13 | 2 | 0.1 |
| Evan Longoria | 3B | .372 | .380 | .367 | .391 | 21 | 13 | 4 | 0.4 |
| Carl Crawford | LF | .353 | .374 | .342 | .347 | 21 | 14 | 3 | 0.3 |
| B.J. Upton | CF | .324 | .339 | .341 | .334 | 20 | 13 | 2 | 0.0 |
| Ben Zobrist | RF | .345 | .325 | .351 | .341 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0.4 |
| Rocco Baldelli | RF | .208 | .238 | .303 | .331 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Reid Brignac | SS | .308 | .306 | .300 | .306 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Matt Joyce | RF | .359 | .361 | .321 | .330 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Kelly Shoppach | C | .308 | .296 | .311 | .329 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Dan Johnson | 1B | .341 | .337 | .350 | .347 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Desmond Jennings | CF | .292 | .267 | .316 | .311 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Pitcher | Role | 2010 RA | 2010 FIP | Proj RA | Proj FIP | IP | R |
| David Price | SP1 | 3.06 | 3.44 | 4.01 | 4.15 | 14 | 6.2 |
| James Shields | SP2 | 5.67 | 4.26 | 4.73 | 4.15 | 6 | 3.2 |
| Matt Garza | SP3 | 4.13 | 4.43 | 4.23 | 4.41 | 6 | 2.8 |
| Wade Davis | SP4 | 4.19 | 4.83 | 5.06 | 4.84 | 6 | 3.4 |
| Rafael Soriano | CL | 2.05 | 2.79 | 3.09 | 3.21 | 3 | 1.0 |
| Grant Balfour | SU | 2.60 | 2.75 | 3.45 | 3.30 | 3 | 1.2 |
| Joaquin Benoit | MR | 1.52 | 2.52 | 3.73 | 3.68 | 3 | 1.2 |
| Dan Wheeler | MR | 3.75 | 4.19 | 4.24 | 4.41 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Randy Choate | MR | 4.67 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 3.93 | 2 | 1.0 |
| Jeff Niemann | MR | 4.47 | 4.66 | 4.83 | 4.70 | 1 | 0.5 |
David Price is probably better than that projection, but we won’t know that for a while. Although James Shields had an ugly season, a lot of that had to do with a pretty high BABIP. I’m still surprised he’s starting Game 2 though.
So you’ve got:
| Team | Offense | Defense | Pitching | Pythagenpat | p162 |
| Rangers | 24.1 | 0.2 | 20.8 | .568 | 92 |
| VS | |||||
| Rays | 24.5 | 1.7 | 21.0 | .613 | 99 |
And 10,000 simulations of that series says:
Rays: 53.9%
Rangers: 46.1%
2010 ALDS Preview: Twins vs. Yankees
The Twins broke in their new stadium with a very successful season, winning 94 games and taking the AL Central by six games. Although they haven’t fared well against the Yankees in the postseason, that doesn’t mean a damn thing when looking at this series.
The Twins scored 781 runs this year, which ranked sixth in baseball. Here’s a look at how their position players project.
| Lineup | Pos | 2010 OBP | 2010 wOBA | Proj OBP | Proj wOBA | PA | Outs | BR | Def |
| Denard Span | CF | .328 | .311 | .360 | .332 | 20 | 13 | 2 | 0.1 |
| Orlando Hudson | 2B | .334 | .317 | .341 | .325 | 20 | 13 | 2 | 0.1 |
| Joe Mauer | C | .402 | .380 | .408 | .397 | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0.0 |
| Jason Kubel | RF | .324 | .327 | .333 | .348 | 20 | 13 | 3 | -0.3 |
| Michael Cuddyer | 1B | .336 | .332 | .332 | .339 | 20 | 13 | 3 | -0.2 |
| Jim Thome | DH | .410 | .434 | .355 | .366 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0.0 |
| Delmon Young | LF | .334 | .353 | .328 | .343 | 19 | 13 | 2 | -0.3 |
| Danny Valencia | 3B | .354 | .353 | .300 | .307 | 19 | 13 | 2 | 0.1 |
| J.J. Hardy | SS | .317 | .312 | .310 | .317 | 19 | 13 | 2 | 0.2 |
| Drew Butera | C | .234 | .233 | .269 | .263 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Brendan Harris | DH | .233 | .211 | .301 | .296 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Nick Punto | RF | .311 | .283 | .312 | .279 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Alexi Casilla | SS | .324 | .319 | .302 | .279 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Justin Morneau | 1B | .437 | .448 | .370 | .386 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Jason Repko | RF | .326 | .307 | .288 | .289 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Matt Tolbert | 1B | .293 | .290 | .292 | .283 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
PA: Plate appearances
Outs: calculated as (1- Proj OBP) times PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs over series estimate of playing time
Def: Projected defense over series estimate of playing time using an average of DRS, TZ, UZR and ZR
You’ll note that the Twins’ 2010 wOBA are almost all lower than their projections. I think that’s due to the way Target Field played, as it seems to have suppressed offense by about 4%. We don’t want to make too much of a single year’s park factors, but it is worth mentioning.
Denard Span had a down year after putting up a couple of strong seasons in 2008 and 2009. Some of it was a drop in BABIP as he went from .353 to .294 this year, but he also walked less frequently (8.5% of the time compared to 12.2% in 2008 and 10.4% in 2009). His HR/FB rate plummeted to just 2.0%, compared to 10.5% in 2008 and 5.9% in 2009. We have more evidence that Span is better than he was in 2010, so that should be the assumption. He appears to be a good defender according to most of the advanced defensive metrics.
Orlando Hudson has had a tough time getting a job the last few years for whatever reason, but he’s a solid second baseman. Not necessarily in the Utley/Cano class, but pretty good overall.
It’s no secret that Joe Mauer is one of the most valuable players in baseball, and the key player for the Twins.
Unfortunately for the Twins, they’re going to be without Justin Morneau for the postseason. He was having a great season before he went down with a concussion and his loss hurts them. Michael Cuddyer was able to step into Morneau’s spot at first base and in the cleanup spot, but he’s both an offensive and defensive downgrade.
Jim Thome was signed to be a part-time player, but got pressed into full-time duty with Morneau out and had an outstanding season. His performance against lefties was markedly worse (.241/.298/.471 compared to .302/.455/.698 vs RHP), which is probably part of the reasoning behind the Yankees setting up their rotation to get four starts out of CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte. As a team the Twins do project worse against lefties, but I’ll get into that in a bit.
Delmon Young had the best season of his career in 2010. It’s easy to forget that he’s still just 24 since he’s been in the majors since he turned 20. He still doesn’t walk much and his defense is still unimpressive, but he can be a dangerous hitter, particularly against lefties.
I really don’t know much about Danny Valencia, except that he came up and hit very well this year and showed a good glove. Time will tell if he’s as good as he was in 2010, but his projection isn’t particularly good.
J.J. Hardy rounds out the primary starters. Hardy is a good fielder but not much of a hitter.
The bench looks like some combination of Drew Butera, Brendan Harris, Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla, Jason Repko and Matt Tolbert.
With this depth chart, using the assumption of a five game series and 25 batting outs per game, the Twins would project to score about 24 runs. Their overall defense projects to be a bit worse than average.
Getting back to the platoon thing, here’s how the Twins lineup projects against all pitching and then against LHP and RHP.
| Player | Overall | |||
| PA | wOBA | BR | Outs | |
| Denard Span | 5.0 | .332 | 0.6 | 3.2 |
| Orlando Hudson | 5.0 | .325 | 0.6 | 3.3 |
| Joe Mauer | 5.0 | .397 | 0.9 | 3.0 |
| Jason Kubel | 5.0 | .348 | 0.7 | 3.3 |
| Michael Cuddyer | 5.0 | .339 | 0.6 | 3.3 |
| Jim Thome | 4.0 | .366 | 0.6 | 2.6 |
| Delmon Young | 4.0 | .343 | 0.5 | 2.7 |
| Danny Valencia | 4.0 | .307 | 0.4 | 2.8 |
| J.J. Hardy | 4.0 | .317 | 0.4 | 2.8 |
| Total | 41.0 | .342 | 5.3 | 27.0 |
| Vs. L | PA | wOBA | BR | Outs |
| Denard Span | 5.0 | .322 | 0.6 | 3.3 |
| Orlando Hudson | 5.0 | .310 | 0.5 | 3.4 |
| Joe Mauer | 5.0 | .359 | 0.7 | 3.2 |
| Jason Kubel | 5.0 | .314 | 0.5 | 3.5 |
| Michael Cuddyer | 4.5 | .357 | 0.6 | 2.9 |
| Jim Thome | 4.0 | .316 | 0.4 | 2.8 |
| Delmon Young | 4.0 | .363 | 0.6 | 2.6 |
| Danny Valencia | 4.0 | .325 | 0.5 | 2.7 |
| J.J. Hardy | 4.0 | .335 | 0.5 | 2.7 |
| Total | 40.5 | .333 | 4.9 | 27.0 |
| Vs. R | PA | wOBA | BR | Outs |
| Denard Span | 5.0 | .331 | 0.6 | 3.2 |
| Orlando Hudson | 5.0 | .329 | 0.6 | 3.3 |
| Joe Mauer | 5.0 | .414 | 1.0 | 2.9 |
| Jason Kubel | 5.0 | .356 | 0.7 | 3.3 |
| Michael Cuddyer | 5.0 | .330 | 0.6 | 3.4 |
| Jim Thome | 4.3 | .394 | 0.8 | 2.7 |
| Delmon Young | 4.0 | .337 | 0.5 | 2.7 |
| Danny Valencia | 4.0 | .302 | 0.4 | 2.8 |
| J.J. Hardy | 4.0 | .309 | 0.4 | 2.8 |
| Total | 41.3 | .346 | 5.5 | 27.0 |
That’s a pretty significant difference. 0.6 runs per game is close to 100 runs over a 162 game season. So it makes sense to attack them with as much left-handed pitching as you can.
So how about the pitching?
| Pitcher | Role | 2010 RA | 2010 FIP | Proj RA | Proj FIP | IP | R |
| Francisco Liriano | SP1 | 3.62 | 2.66 | 4.09 | 3.67 | 14 | 5.4 |
| Carl Pavano | SP2 | 3.87 | 4.07 | 4.73 | 4.33 | 5 | 2.6 |
| Brian Duensing | SP3 | 2.89 | 3.74 | 4.54 | 4.35 | 6 | 3.0 |
| Nick Blackburn | SP4 | 5.79 | 5.06 | 5.11 | 4.65 | 4 | 2.3 |
| Matt Capps | CL | 3.33 | 3.24 | 4.52 | 4.12 | 3 | 1.5 |
| Jesse Crain | SU | 3.57 | 3.25 | 3.94 | 3.73 | 3 | 1.3 |
| Jon Rauch | MR | 3.12 | 2.95 | 3.98 | 3.82 | 3 | 1.3 |
| Brian Fuentes | MR | 3.19 | 3.96 | 3.81 | 3.82 | 3 | 1.3 |
| Matt Guerrier | MR | 3.55 | 4.29 | 4.04 | 4.49 | 2 | 0.9 |
| Jose Mijares | MR | 3.98 | 3.97 | 4.30 | 4.51 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Kevin Slowey | MR | 4.63 | 3.99 | 4.74 | 4.13 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Scott Baker | MR | 4.60 | 3.97 | 4.38 | 4.05 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Total | 45 | 20.7 |
2010/Proj RA: 2010/projected run allowed per nine innings
2010/Proj FIP: 2010/projected Fielding Independent Pitching
IP: Estimated innings pitched in this series
R: Estimated runs allowed in this series (Projected RA divided by nine times IP)
It looks like the Twins will go with a four man rotation of Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing and Nick Blackburn. That would set up Liriano to go in Game 5 if needed.
The first thing I’ll say about the pitching projections is that Liriano’s projection is wrong. He’s been working his way back from Tommy John surgery the last few seasons and this year his velocity jumped by about 2 mph and he’s been a completely different pitcher. I don’t think I’d expect him to be as good as his 2010 FIP, but he’s a very good pitcher right now.
Pavano. That name seems familiar to me for some reason…
Brian Duensing had a very good year working out of the bullpen and the rotation. He struggled a bit over his last two starts and was reported to have ‘shoulder tightness’ in his final game of the year but it appears to be a non-issue and he’s penciled in as the Game 3 starter.
Nick Blackburn was decent in 2008 and 2009 but had a rough 2010. I am honestly surprised he’s getting a start in this series if needed, although it may have something to do with the fact that he pitched pretty well against the Yankees in the 2009 ALDS.
The Twins bullpen has been very good all year, even after losing Joe Nathan. Matt Capps is the closer and he pitched pretty well this year, but CAIRO’s skeptical. Jesse Crain and Jon Rauch are the key righties, and expect to see lots of Brian Fuentes and Jose Mijares against the Yankee lefties.
The unbalanced schedule makes it a little hard to get a true read on how good any particular team is. You can look at things like quality of opposition, but even there you’ve got a lot of noise. If the AL Central has a higher wOBA than the AL East, is it because they have better hitters or is it because they have worse pitchers? The Twins went 15-21 against the AL East. Take out Baltimore and they went 12-20.
That doesn’t mean the Twins aren’t a good team, because they are. It doesn’t mean they can’t beat the Yankees, because they might.
Here’s how the Twins offense, defense and pitching projections add up.
| Team | Offense | Defense | Pitching | Pythagenpat | p162 |
| Twins | 23.8 | -0.2 | 21.6 | .546 | 88 |
If Morneau was playing in this series they’d be more like a 92 win team. If you assume Liriano can pitch to a 3.50 RA instead of his projected 4.09 RA they’d also be around a 92 win team. Home field advantage in a five game series is worth about 0.004 percentage points.
I’m going to give the Twins a 3.50 RA Liriano. So simming a series between the Twins as a 92 win team and the Yankees as a 102 win team 10,000 times I get the following win probabilities:
Yankees: 57.22%
Twins: 42.78%
So I’m going to say Twins in 2.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Yankees.com: Yankees clinging to AL East lead after loss
NEW YORK—CC Sabathia was chased in a seven-run sixth inning as the Rays defeated the Yankees, 10-3, on Thursday at Yankee Stadium, reducing New York’s advantage in the American League East to a half-game.
Congratulations to the Rays and their fans on winning the AL East.
On the plus side, at least now we won’t have to hear and read the bleating and whining about CC Sabathia winning an ‘undeserved’ Cy Young.
The Implications of Tonight’s Game with Tampa Bay
The Yankees and Rays will face off for the last time in the regular season later tonight (weather permitting). The Yankees still hold a 1.5 game lead on the Rays, but a loss tonight would tie the two in the loss column.
At this point, it’s a virtual certainty both teams are going to the postseason. So the question is which team is going to end up taking the division since it means home field advantage and a possible seeding advantage.
The Rays lead the season series 9-8, so the best the Yankees can do is tie it by winning tonight. Why does that matter? Because it’s the first tie-breaker when two teams from the same division end the year qualifying for the postseason with the same record.
So if the Yankees don’t win tonight, the Rays will win the AL East if the Yankees and Rays end the season with the same record.
How about if the Yankees do win tonight, by some miracle? In that instance, the season series is tied which means they have to move onto the second tie-breaker. Here’s how Major League Rule 33 and Major League rule 34 describe that.
The Club with the higher winning percentage in head-to-head competition between the two tied Clubs during the championship season; or
If the Clubs remain tied, then to the tied Club with the higher winning percentage in intradivision games during the championship season; or
If the Clubs remain tied, then to the tied Club with the higher winning percentage in the last half of intraleague games during the championship season; or
If the Clubs remain tied, then to the tied Club with the higher winning percentage in the last half plus one of intraleague games during the championship season, provided that such additional game was not a game between the two tied Clubs. This process will be followed game-by-game until the tie is broken.
The Rays have three intradivisional games left after tonight, at home hosting the Orioles. They currently have a record of 40-28 against the rest of the AL East.
The yankees have nine intradivisional games left after tonight, three at home vs. Boston and then six on the road against Toronto and Boston. They are currently 35-27 against the rest of the AL East.
If the Rays lose all the rest of their AL East games starting tonight, they end with an intradivision record of 40-32. So the Yankees would only have to take four of nine from Toronto/Boston to tie that. However, the more likely scenario is Tampa Bay picking up two wins against Baltimore which means the Yankees would have to go 6-3 against Toronto/Boston to match them.
My Monte Carlo simulator currently puts the AL East odds at:
Yankees: 64.8%
Rays: 35.1%
That is high for the Yankees because my simulator awards ties a share of the division, so if the Yankees and Rays finish the year with the same record they each get 0.5 of the division title. Someday I’ll fix that, but for now just mentally adjust that in your head.
If the Yankees win tonight (haha), the odds go to:
Yankees: 75.9%
Rays: 23.1%
And when the Yankees lose tonight, the odds go to:
Rays: 54.0%
Yankees: 46.0%
Again, mentally adjust those to account for the tie-breakers.
That’s a pretty big swing on one game, huh?
It almost seems to me like the Yankees have to win this game if they want the division, but at this point it’s not worth going above and beyond for it. If it happens, great. If not, take your chances on the road to start the postseason.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Yankees.com: A-Rod’s blasts carry Yanks to top of AL East
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Middletown Press: Will the Red Sox catch the Yankees?
Well, the Yanks are in a tailspin the last of couple weeks, falling into second place - and the Red Sox are hot all of a sudden and only six games behind the Yankees in the wild card race.
And guess what? The Sox and Yanks still have six games left with each other - with the final series of the season at Fenway Park.
What do you think? Can the Sox catch the Yanks?
