Thursday, January 31, 2013
Index Universe: Yankees GM: Quant Analysis Key To Winning
IU: So you have essentially an analytic process, right?
Cashman: Big time. I’ve been with the team here about 15 years now, and going on my 16th year, and I have changed over time as a department head. One of the changes I’ve made is to take the Yankees into the 21st century. When you see things in the industry improve and change, you’ve got to keep up with the challenges. We have created a quantitative analysis department and hired a director of quantitative analysis. That department has grown to some 14 people who manage a number of different information streams. Not only do they pool that information, but then it is dissected and produced in a meaningful way about what is truly taking place on the field in present performance and then future predictable performance. That has certainly allowed us to make safer, more informed decisions.
Brian Cashman talks about some of the ways Yankees use quantitative analysis in this interview. He doesn’t say if quantitative analysis was the impetus behind signing Tony Womack and Jaret Wright and Chan Ho Park, but he does get into why they didn’t bid aggressively on Yu Darvish, indirectly.
Friday, January 4, 2013
Yankees.com: Cashman still looking to add meaningful pieces
The Yankees have increased the reach of their old-school scouting staff as well as high-tech statistical analysis over the last several seasons, and those advances have helped procure talent late in the Hot Stove game. They’re not afraid of chasing older players, some with injury histories, because they can represent good value.
“I think we’ve improved our pro scouting network, and I think we’ve improved our evaluation of statistical data streams,” Cashman said. “It puts us in a position to make informed decisions and much more comfortable knowing what is really available, and what you can expect from those players if you sign them and what you’d be comfortable paying them.”
I’m encouraged to read that the Yankees are putting more focus on scouting and statistical analysis at the major league level. The days of signing Tony Womack, Jaret Wright and Chan Ho Park appear to be a thing of the past.
Hopefully they’ll also work on improving their amateur scouting and their player development.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Sporting News: Kerry Wood brings relief to Yankees’ bullpen
The Yankees can thank Kerry Wood for the turnaround. They can give an assist to the club’s scouts, too. Wood had not been on the disabled list and not pitched in three weeks when the Yankees traded for him at the deadline.
“I was expecting to be traded, but not then,” Wood said. “I was expecting a waiver deal toward the end (of August). (The Indians) sat me down in the seventh inning when I had been up just to get in an inning and I figured that something had happened. Absolutely I was surprised, mainly because I hadn’t thrown in 2-3 weeks.”
“Our scouts told us that there was a lot left in his tank,” Yankees pitching coach Dave Eiland said.
One outing after Wood’s arrival, Eiland convinced the 33-year-old right-hander to stand taller on the mound and raise his arm slot to improve the downhill angle on his pitches. “Which is how he pitched earlier in his career,” Eiland said.
At the time of his acquisition, Wood had an ugly 6.30 ERA, and a FIP of 5.30. He’d walked 11.8% of the batters he faced and struck out 19.3%. His BABIP against was .305.
As a Yankee, Wood’s definitely pitched better, although not really well enough to maintain the 0.44 ERA he’s got as a Yankee. He’s actually walked batters at a higher rate as a Yankee (13.2%), although part of the difference there is that he has a low .217 BABIP against which suppresses the numbers of batters he faced. In terms of walks per nine innings, he looks a bit better (5.0 in Cleveland, 4.8 in New York). He’s also jacked up his strikeout rate to 28.9% of batters faced.
Interestingly, Wood is not throwing as hard as a Yankee as he did earlier with Cleveland. He threw his fastball 64.4% of the time with Cleveland at an average velocity of 95.2 mph. He also threw an occasional slider (83.3 mph, 0.8% of the time), a cutter(89.9 mph, 21.5% of the time) and a curve (78.9mph, 13.3% of the time).
With the Yanks, Wood’s thrown the fastball less frequently (93.4mph, 52.2%), has thrown no sliders, and has upped his cutter and curve usage (89.1 mph, 30.9%) and (76.8 mph, 16.9%) respectively.
He’s not likely to continue to be as valuable as he’s been to his point, because of that low BABIP, and because of his 5.0% HR/FB rate (compared to 11.1% in his career), but he should continue to be pretty good.
It’s fair to say that Brian Cashman’s offseason wasn’t a great one. I thought Chan Ho Park was exhibit A there, but getting Wood to replace Park has been a point in his favor.
Saturday, July 31, 2010
Yankees.com: Homer hat trick keeps Yankees ahead of Rays
Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher hit game-tying taters, and Robinson Cano’s go-ahead shot carried the Yanks to Saturday night’s 5-4 win over the Rays.
Cano’s on the short list of legitimate AL MVP candidates, and you can probably make the case that his 9th inning homer tonight has been the most important hit in the Yankees’ 2010 season to this point. The Yankees had six hits tonight, and Cano had three of them.
Tonight could have ended with the Yankees and Rays tied for the AL East division lead and with Tampa looking for a sweep tomorrow. Now, the Yankees are guaranteed to be in first place no matter how the series ends, and with their best pitcher going tomorrow they have a very good chance to take two of three on the road against their primary competition for the division.
Even though Javier Vazquez and Matt Garza both gave up four runs, I thought they both pitched pretty well, and it was a well-played game all around. Of course, I’d probably feel differently if Tampa Bay had won.
Today actually felt like two wins thanks to this bit of news as well.
Friday, July 30, 2010
NY Times: Park Stumbles After an Indians Fill-In Shines
CLEVELAND — The lowlight for the Yankees came at the end of an otherwise complete night. Chan Ho Park got the first two outs in the ninth inning, then put the next five runners on base — three walks, two singles — as the Indians tagged him for three runs. His struggles were far more noticeable after Cleveland third baseman Andy Marte pitched a perfect top of the inning after being called on to bail out a taxed bullpen.
How much longer can the Yankees refuse to acknowledge the obvious fact that Chan Ho Park should not be on the team? People like Jonathan Albaladejo, Mark Melancon, Romulo Sanchez and Ivan Nova are all likely to be better and have some potential upside. Park’s responsible for the full-season equivalent of four Pythagenpat losses this season.
Maybe instead of trading your best prospect for a reliever, you could dump the worst reliever on the team and audition some of the people in the minors? Just a thought.
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Yahoo: Yankees’ Chan Ho Park on trading block
The New York Yankees added Chan Ho Park(notes) last offseason after being impressed when he faced them in the World Series last season as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies. Now the team is looking to unload him, according to ESPN.
I know that Jayson Stark reported the Royals turned down an offer of Jesus Montero for Joakim Soria, but I think a package of Montero and Park could get it done.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
NJ.com: Carig: Yankees to call up reliever Jonathan Albaladejo
NEW YORK—The Yankees called up reliever Jonathan Albaladejo, according to two people in the organization who requested anonymity because they’re not authorized to speak publicly.
The right-hander Albaladejo, 27, has been outstanding this season in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre. In 41 appearances, Albaladejo is 2-1 with 31 saves and a 0.96 ERA in 46 2/3 innings.
Hopefully, Mr. Park is renting and didn’t buy a place.
2010 All Star Break Review - June Edition
A little late, but following up on April and May here’s the June All Star Break review.
June looked like the Yankees’ easiest month on paper, with 18 of their 27 games at home, and with a bunch of those games against minor league teams from Houston, Philadelphia and Queens. Log5 would have estimated them winning about 18 of those 27 games.
| Series | Start Date | # Gms | xW | aW | diff |
| Orioles at Yankees | 6/1/2010 | 3 | 2.3 | 3 | 0.7 |
| Yankees at Blue Jays | 6/4/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 1 | -0.8 |
| Yankees at Orioles | 6/8/2010 | 3 | 2.1 | 2 | -0.1 |
| Astros at Yankees | 6/11/2010 | 3 | 2.3 | 3 | 0.7 |
| Phillies at Yankees | 6/15/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 1 | -0.8 |
| Mets at Yankees | 6/18/2010 | 3 | 1.9 | 2 | 0.1 |
| Yankees at Diamondbacks | 6/21/2010 | 3 | 1.9 | 2 | 0.1 |
| Yankees at Dodgers | 6/25/2010 | 3 | 1.6 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Mariners at Yankees | 6/29/2010 | 3 | 2.1 | 1 | -1.1 |
| Total | 27 | 18 | 17 | -1 |
xW: Expected wins for this series using log 5
aW: Actual wins
diff: Difference between xW and aW. Positive means team exceeded expectations
The Yankees did about a win worse than expected, with the home series against Seattle to end the month the biggest problem (this does include the game in July 1). It felt worse than that, but I think a big part of that was the drop in offense, as the team went from scoring 5.6 runs per game in April and 5.7 runs per game in May to 4.7 in June.
| Player | month | pa | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | so | sb | cs | gdp | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | br |
| Derek Jeter | 6 | 118 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 4 | .243 | .339 | .379 | .323 | 13 |
| Mark Teixeira | 6 | 116 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .250 | .353 | .460 | .359 | 16 |
| Robinson Cano | 6 | 113 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .333 | .398 | .510 | .398 | 19 |
| Nick Swisher | 6 | 117 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .240 | .325 | .423 | .328 | 14 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 6 | 90 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .244 | .311 | .463 | .333 | 12 |
| Brett Gardner | 6 | 71 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0 | .383 | .479 | .533 | .450 | 14 |
| Curtis Granderson | 6 | 100 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .239 | .300 | .457 | .325 | 13 |
| Jorge Posada | 6 | 90 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .203 | .344 | .351 | .323 | 10 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 6 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .180 | .275 | .246 | .250 | 4 |
| Marcus Thames | 6 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .071 | .133 | .071 | .108 | -1 |
| Nick Johnson | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Ramiro Pena | 6 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .136 | .240 | .136 | .200 | 1 |
| Randy Winn | 6 | 51 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .277 | .333 | .383 | .322 | 6 |
| Kevin Russo | 6 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .130 | .231 | .130 | .192 | 1 |
| Juan Miranda | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Colin Curtis | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Chad Huffman | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Chad Moeller | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .333 | .400 | .327 | 1 |
| Greg Golson | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
br: Total linear weights batting runs, not position-adjusted or compared to average/replacement level
Once again, Robinson Cano was the most valuable offensive player on the team although Brett Gardner has the best rate performance. Derek Jeter had a relatively rough month, and reality slammed into Francisco Cervelli’s over-sized batting helmet with extreme force. But in general, the team overall just didn’t have a good month offensively. The only players who hit at least as well as they projected entering the season were Cano and TSBG.
On the plus side, the team’s run prevention in June improved over May, falling to 4.3 from 4.4. Of course, that’s at least partially a function of only pitching to 88.9% of a major league lineup for a large part of the month, and a function of playing some bad teams.
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| CC Sabathia | 5 | 5 | 37.0 | 25 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 2.19 | 2.19 | 3.15 | 14.3 |
| Javier Vazquez | 6 | 6 | 39.0 | 26 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 3.23 | 3.23 | 4.48 | 10.6 |
| Andy Pettitte | 5 | 5 | 34.0 | 28 | 15 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 3.97 | 3.18 | 3.85 | 6.4 |
| Phil Hughes | 5 | 5 | 31.3 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 5.46 | 5.17 | 4.09 | 0.8 |
| A.J. Burnett | 5 | 5 | 23.0 | 35 | 29 | 29 | 9 | 3 | 17 | 19 | 11.35 | 11.35 | 9.24 | -14.5 |
| SP Total | 26 | 26 | 164.33 | 151 | 86 | 82 | 25 | 7 | 61 | 146 | 4.71 | 4.49 | 4.64 | 17.6 |
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| Mariano Rivera | 11 | 0 | 13.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.43 | 7.5 |
| David Robertson | 9 | 0 | 9.0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.53 | 4.2 |
| Boone Logan | 4 | 0 | 7.7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 3.33 | 2.4 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 12 | 0 | 10.7 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 4.22 | 4.22 | 2.45 | 1.2 |
| Sergio Mitre | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.70 | 1.2 |
| Chad Gaudin | 7 | 0 | 12.7 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 4.97 | 4.97 | 6.04 | 0.3 |
| Chan Ho Park | 9 | 0 | 11.7 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 5.40 | 5.40 | 3.46 | -0.2 |
| Damaso Marte | 8 | 0 | 5.3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 7.33 | -0.9 |
| RP Total | 61 | 0 | 72 | 57 | 26 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 65 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.53 | 15.8 |
| SP + RP | 87 | 26 | 236.33 | 208 | 112 | 108 | 29 | 9 | 93 | 211 | 4.27 | 4.11 | 4.30 | 33.4 |
A.J. Burnett’s June could’ve gone a little better. Phil Hughes also had a disappointing month, but the it’s tough to quibble with how Sabathia, Vazquez and Pettitte did. The bullpen had its best month of the season overall, with David Robertson finally starting to resemble the 2009 vintage. It’s easy to forget how dominant Mo can be at times, but look at that June line and marvel at his awesomeness.
Once again the Yankees ERA was lower than their FIP, this time to the tune of about six runs. So it’s probably a safe assumption that the defense played pretty well, even if they don’t deserve all the credit for that difference.
The Yankees’ run differential in June was by far their worst of the season, as they allowed 114 runs to go with the 128 runs scored, a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .554. So the Yankees may have been a bit fortunate to actually only miss their expectations by one game.
And since it was requested, here’s a WAR pie chart for the Yankees through Sunday’s games.
Not shown:
Boone Logan: 0.2
Romulo Sanchez: 0.2
Damaso Marte: 0.2
Juan Miranda: 0.2
Alfredo Aceves: 0.2
Ivan Nova: 0.2
A.J. Burnett: 0.1
Kevin Russo: 0.1
Sergio Mitre: 0.1
Greg Golson: 0.1
David Robertson: 0.0
Colin Curtis: 0.0
Chad Moeller: 0.0
Chad Huffman: -0.1
Dustin Moseley: -0.2
Mark Melancon: -0.3
Ramiro Pena: -0.3
Chan Ho Park: -0.3
Joba Chamberlain: -0.4
Sunday, July 18, 2010
NY Times: Pettitte Exits, but Yankees Beat Rays
Compared with the injury to the Yankees’ starting pitcher on Saturday, Sunday’s mishap was merely mundane. Unlike A. J. Burnett, who cut the palms of his hands when angrily slamming them into a clubhouse door Saturday, Andy Pettitte was merely throwing a pitch when he strained his left groin muscle Sunday.
But while Burnett’s injury probably will not force him to miss a start, Pettitte’s injury could force him onto the disabled list.
Why couldn’t Burnett have strained his groin and Pettitte cut his palms?
Pettitte’s been the Yankees’ best starter this year, so this hurts. It sounds like he could miss up to five weeks, which is not cool. As for who fills his spot, it’ll probably be Dustin Moseley or Sergio Mitre, neither of which excites me much. Until we know how much time Pettitte’s likely to miss, it’s tough to really assess the impact.
Pettitte’s injury put a damper on a solid win. The Yankees were down 3-0 after only ten pitches and with AL All Star Game starter David Price on the mound for Tampa Bay. Luckily for us, the Yankees have Robinson Cano, who put them right back into the game with a two-out, two-run triple in the bottom of the first to cut the deficit to 3-2. The beleaguered Yankee bullpen was able to finish the game after Pettitte left, allowing two runs over the last six innings while their teammates scored seven more. I was happy to see Joe Girardi go right to David Robertson when Pettitte had to leave with two on and a 3-1 count on Kelly Shoppach. At this point, Robertson is probably the best non-Mo reliever in the bullpen (I really don’t give a crap what Joba’s FIP is), and the game had the potential to get ugly right there. I’ll also throw CHP a bone and thank him for a good inning. That makes two good games in his Yankee career I think.
This is a series we have to be happy with, as the Yankees took two of three from their chief AL East rival and opened up a three game lead in the division. In doing so while Boston lost three of four at home against Texas, the Yankees also have managed to pick up a seven game lead on the Red Sox in the loss column. In order for Boston to catch the Yankees now, they have to be seven games better over less than half a season. With eleventy billion aces, that’s certainly plausible, but it’s also somewhat unlikely.
Monday, July 12, 2010
2010 All Star Break Review - May Edition
After a solid April, the Yankees headed into May hoping to continue their winning ways.
On paper, the May schedule looked to be a bit easier than April’s. In terms of expected winning percentage, the Yankees were expect to win 12.3 of 21 games in April, a winning percentage of .585. May had 30 games scheduled, and their log5 expected wins was about 18.3, or a .609 winning percentage.
| Series | Start Date | # Gms | xW | aW | diff |
| White Sox at Yankees | 5/2/2010 | 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.1 |
| Orioles at Yankees | 5/5/2010 | 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| Yankees at Red Sox | 5/9/2010 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| Yankees at Tigers | 5/13/2010 | 4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | -1.3 |
| Twins at Yankees | 5/16/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| Red Sox at Yankees | 5/18/2010 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | -0.1 |
| Rays at Yankees | 5/20/2010 | 2 | 1.1 | 0.0 | -1.1 |
| Yankees at Mets | 5/23/2010 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | -0.6 |
| Yankees at Twins | 5/27/2010 | 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| Indians at Yankees | 5/31/2010 | 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.2 |
| Total | 30 | 18.3 | 17.0 | -1.3 |
xW: Expected wins for this series using log 5
aW: Actual wins
diff: Difference between xW and aW. Positive means team is ahead of their projected pace
The Yankees took care of business in the first three series they played, taking two of three against the White Sox and sweeping Baltimore before shipping up to Boston and taking two of three.
Then came a disappointing series in Detroit where they lost three of four, when they probably should have split.
They finished off the month by taking two of three from Minnesota at home then splitting a two-gamer with Boston. Then came the first series of the year were they didn’t win a game, as Tampa Bay came into DNYS and took a two-gamer. Next up came a three game exhibition series against the Mets in Flushing, where the Yankees dropped two of three. However, for some reason Bud Selig decided exhibition games should count so the Yanks got saddled with a series loss.
They finished up the month by doing what they should have done on the road against Minnesota and Cleveland, winning both series and finishing up the month with 17 wins, about one win less than log5 would have expected.
The Yankees scored 171 runs in May, an average of about 5.7 per game. That was a hair better than April. Here’s how the hitters performed.
| Player | pa | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | so | sb | cs | gdp | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | br |
| Derek Jeter | 140 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 2 | .281 | .343 | .359 | .320 | 16 |
| Mark Teixeira | 134 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .280 | .366 | .475 | .368 | 19 |
| Robinson Cano | 125 | 39 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .336 | .384 | .509 | .390 | 20 |
| Nick Swisher | 102 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .374 | .441 | .670 | .472 | 23 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 118 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .330 | .415 | .534 | .414 | 21 |
| Brett Gardner | 127 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 2 | .286 | .370 | .375 | .339 | 16 |
| Curtis Granderson | 18 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .444 | .533 | .434 | 3 |
| Jorge Posada | 35 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .355 | .429 | .581 | .434 | 7 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 84 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .307 | .381 | .400 | .353 | 11 |
| Marcus Thames | 57 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .222 | .386 | .311 | .341 | 6 |
| Nick Johnson | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .286 | .412 | .643 | .441 | 3 |
| Ramiro Pena | 36 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | .235 | .278 | .265 | .249 | 2 |
| Randy Winn | 56 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .250 | .357 | .354 | .326 | 6 |
| Kevin Russo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .250 | .250 | .225 | 0 |
| Juan Miranda | 34 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .226 | .294 | .419 | .309 | 4 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
br: Total Linear weights batting runs, not position-adjusted or compared to average/replacement level
The injury bug hit the Yankees in May, with Curtis Granderson, Jorge Posada and Nick Johnson all going down, pressing Francisco Cervelli, Randy Winn and Juan Miranda into the lineup a bit more than you’d hope for. Cervelli was up to the task, but it’s probably safe to say the others weren’t so much.
Nick Swisher was the best offensive player on the team in May, hitting .374/.441/.670 with seven homers. Alex Rodriguez also had a good month, and although Cano dropped from otherworldly to really good he was also very valuable. Mark Teixeira also showed signs of life after a disastrous April.
In April the pitching staff allowed an average of 3.76 runs per game, but they fell off in May, going to 4.4 runs per game.
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| Phil Hughes | 6 | 6 | 38.7 | 35 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 3.03 | 3.03 | 2.81 | 11.4 |
| A.J. Burnett | 6 | 6 | 38.0 | 38 | 22 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 33 | 5.21 | 4.03 | 3.91 | 2.0 |
| CC Sabathia | 6 | 6 | 36.7 | 40 | 22 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 5.40 | 5.15 | 5.60 | 1.1 |
| Andy Pettitte | 5 | 5 | 31.3 | 29 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 3.16 | 2.87 | 4.51 | 8.8 |
| Javier Vazquez | 5 | 4 | 22.0 | 21 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 18 | 4.91 | 4.91 | 5.43 | 1.9 |
| Total | 28 | 27 | 167 | 163 | 80 | 73 | 22 | 4 | 52 | 132 | 4.32 | 3.94 | 4.34 | 25.1 |
rsar: runs saved above replacement level, calculated as n times league average RA minus pitcher RA time innings pitched, where n = 1.25 for starters and 1.15 for reliever.
May was the Phil Hughes show, as he was the most valuable pitcher on the team. Although his ERA went up by about a run, his FIP went down as he improved his walk rate from 5.5 batters per nine inning to 1.9. Andy Pettitte also continued to pitch well, and although Javier Vazquez’s final May line wasn’t very good, he ended the month pitching quite well. CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett both had rough months after good starts to the season.
Once again, the bullpen disappointed.
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| Sergio Mitre | 8 | 2 | 18.7 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 3.86 | 3.38 | 5.24 | 2.8 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 11 | 0 | 11.3 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 8.74 | 7.94 | 1.52 | -4.4 |
| David Robertson | 11 | 0 | 11.0 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 5.73 | 5.73 | 6.02 | -0.6 |
| Boone Logan | 10 | 0 | 8.3 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.60 | -0.2 |
| Chan Ho Park | 6 | 0 | 7.7 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9.39 | 9.39 | 7.50 | -3.6 |
| Mariano Rivera | 8 | 0 | 7.3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6.14 | 3.68 | 4.70 | -0.7 |
| Damaso Marte | 10 | 0 | 5.3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1.69 | 1.69 | 3.39 | 2.1 |
| Mark Melancon | 2 | 0 | 4.0 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11.25 | 9.00 | 4.95 | -2.7 |
| Chad Gaudin | 2 | 0 | 3.7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4.91 | 4.91 | 10.02 | 0.1 |
| Romulo Sanchez | 1 | 0 | 3.7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.38 | 2.1 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 4 | 0 | 3.3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.60 | 1.9 |
| Ivan Nova | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.53 | 1.7 |
| Total | 75 | 2 | 87 | 89 | 52 | 47 | 13 | 34 | 3 | 70 | 5.36 | 4.84 | 4.80 | -1.3 |
Even Mo had a rough month before going down for a while with an oblique injury. Joba Chamberlain had three spectactular disaster games.
On May 16 he started teh eighth with a 3-1 lead. He did manage to get two outs in between allowing two singles and a walk to load the bases, at which point Mo came in and did things he’d only done four times in his career.
a) He walked in a run
b) He gave up a grand slam
Apparently, one implosion wasn’t good enough for Joba, as he came in two days later on May 18 in a home game against the Red Sox with a 5-1 lead, and proceeded to allow four hits and four runs as Boston tied the game. An error in the ninth allowed Boston to score one against Mo and the Yankees had one of the most painful losses of the season.
Apparently, that wasn’t good enough either, because on May 29 he once again turned what looked like a sure win into a loss. This time, he came in with the Yankees ahead 10-6. Despite the fact that Cleveland had runners on first and second, the Yankees had a win expectancy of about 95% since there were two outs.
- A single cut the lead to 10-7, and the win expectancy to 90%
- A walk loaded the bases and cut the win expectancy to 85%
- A double cut the lead to 10-9, and the win expectancy to 67%
- Another double put Cleveland ahead 11-10 and cut the Yankees’ win expectancy to 33%.
- Another single gave Cleveland another run and cut the Yankees’ win expectancy to 21%.
Joba finished up strong though, striking out Shin-Soo Choo to end the inning and moving the Yankees’ win expectancy back up to 22%.
And hey, his FIP was 1.52 in May, so that’s something. I know bebop was wondering about Joba’s BABIP and if we could expect it to get better, and I’ll try and get to that in a few days.
The rest of the pen really didn’t do anything of note, although it should be noted that Chan Ho Park’s ERA of 9.39 was almost two runs higher than his 7.50 FIP, so he may have been a little unlucky.
As far as the defense, once again the Yankees cumulative ERA(4.25) was lower than their FIP (4.50). The gap wasn’t quite as big as it was in April, but that’s a difference of about seven runs. Again, I don’t think we necessarily want to give all the credit for that to the defense, but I’m sure they deserve some of it.
Despite the frustrating games where Joba turned what looked like wins into losses, in the big picture May wasn’t really a bad month either. You could almost say that to this point, the Yankees had been consistent.
2010 All Star Break Review - April Edition
With the All Star Break’s arrival, we have a chance to look back at what’s happened so far in 2010 and think about what it means going forward. So here’s a look at the Yankees’ performance in April.
| Series | Start Date | # Gms | xW | aW | diff |
| Yankees at Red Sox | 4/7/2010 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| Yankees at Rays | 4/11/2010 | 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| Angels at Yankees | 4/15/2010 | 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
| Rangers at Yankees | 4/18/2010 | 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| Yankees at Athletics | 4/22/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| Yankees at Angels | 4/25/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | -0.8 |
| Yankees at Orioles | 4/29/2010 | 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | -0.1 |
| Total | 21 | 12.3 | 14.0 | 1.7 |
xW: Expected wins for this series using log 5
aW: Actual wins
diff: Difference between xW and aW. Positive means team is ahead of their projected pace
April had the potential to be a very rough month, with 15 of the first 21 games on the road, including the first six on the road against arguably two of the three best teams in baseball.
After dropping the season opener, the Yankees went on to win four of five games against Boston and Tampa Bay to jump a bit ahead of their log5 estimated pace. They then went home to win five of six against the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles and the Arlington Rangers of Texas. Next up came a six game west coast trip which saw the Yankees pick up two of three at Oakland before losing two of three to California. The Yankees then headed to Baltimore and finished out May by taking two of three.
The key series in April was the sweep of the Rangers, as it gave the Yankees an extra win over expectations.
The Yankees scored 118 runs during April, about 5.6 per game. Here’s how the hitters performed.
| Player | pa | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | so | sb | cs | gdp | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | br |
| Robinson Cano | 83 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | .390 | .434 | .740 | .492 | 19 |
| Derek Jeter | 98 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | .330 | .357 | .521 | .379 | 15 |
| Jorge Posada | 66 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .310 | .394 | .638 | .435 | 13 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 96 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .250 | .344 | .440 | .345 | 12 |
| Nick Swisher | 83 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .247 | .337 | .438 | .343 | 11 |
| Brett Gardner | 63 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | .321 | .397 | .393 | .360 | 10 |
| Curtis Granderson | 82 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .219 | .305 | .342 | .292 | 8 |
| Nick Johnson | 81 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .138 | .383 | .224 | .318 | 8 |
| Mark Teixeira | 100 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .136 | .300 | .259 | .273 | 7 |
| Marcus Thames | 18 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .625 | .667 | 1.000 | .695 | 7 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .231 | .333 | .231 | .285 | 1 |
| Randy Winn | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .077 | .077 | .077 | .069 | -1 |
| Total | 798 | 185 | 35 | 9 | 25 | 90 | 12 | 129 | 18 | 6 | 14 | .266 | .360 | .450 | .358 | 111 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
br: Total Linear weights batting runs, not position-adjusted or compared to average/replacement level
Robinson Cano obviously stormed out of the gate, as did Jorge Posada. Derek Jeter and Brett Gardner were also strong at the start. The rest of the starters were a bit underwhelming, although Marcus Thames did very well in his part-time role.
On the pitching side, it was all about the starting pitchers.
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| CC Sabathia | 5 | 5 | 34.7 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 28 | 3.38 | 3.12 | 3.46 | 8.9 |
| Andy Pettitte | 5 | 5 | 34.0 | 28 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 25 | 2.12 | 2.12 | 3.17 | 13.4 |
| A.J. Burnett | 5 | 5 | 33.3 | 31 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 20 | 2.70 | 2.43 | 3.47 | 11.0 |
| Javier Vazquez | 4 | 4 | 20.0 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 18 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 6.45 | -7.4 |
| Phil Hughes | 3 | 3 | 18.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 18 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 3.76 | 7.4 |
| Total | 22 | 22 | 140 | 115 | 55 | 53 | 10 | 54 | 6 | 109 | 3.54 | 3.41 | 3.86 | 33.3 |
rsar: runs saved above replacement level, calculated as n times league average RA minus pitcher RA time innings pitched, where n = 1.25 for starters and 1.15 for reliever.
With one notable exception, the starting pitching was outstanding to start the season. CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes combined for about 40 runs saved above replacement level in 18 games. How good is that? To put it in perspective, if you had that rate of performance from your first four starting pitchers over a full season (132 games) you’d be 30 wins above a theoretical replacement level team. If replacement level is 60 wins, you’d win 90 games if the only thing you had was these four pitchers plus replacement level everywhere else.
The bullpen wasn’t quite as happy of a tale.
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| Joba Chamberlain | 11 | 0 | 10.3 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 3.48 | 3.48 | 3.39 | 2.0 |
| Mariano Rivera | 10 | 0 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.20 | 5.2 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 6 | 0 | 8.7 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5.19 | 4.15 | 6.20 | 0.0 |
| Chan Ho Park | 3 | 0 | 5.7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6.35 | 4.76 | 6.73 | -0.7 |
| David Robertson | 7 | 0 | 5.0 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10.80 | 10.80 | 3.80 | -3.1 |
| Damaso Marte | 9 | 0 | 4.7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5.79 | 5.79 | 7.27 | -0.3 |
| Sergio Mitre | 3 | 0 | 4.3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2.08 | 2.08 | 3.66 | 1.5 |
| Boone Logan | 3 | 0 | 2.3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 4.06 | 0.4 |
| Total | 52 | 0 | 50 | 46 | 24 | 22 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 38 | 4.32 | 3.96 | 4.50 | -2.2 |
Before Joba Chamberlain became some hybrid of Juan Acevedo and Jose Veras, he was decent in April and of course Mo was Mo. The only real glaring weak spot was David Robertson, although in six innings anyone can look lousy, and his FIP was ok.
I don’t have the defensive data to look at the April split, although the team had a collective FIP of 4.03 compared to an ERA of 3.55. If you want to ascribe the entirety of that difference to the defense, they’d have been around a +10 overall. Of course, just because you need a large sample size of BABIP to ascertain a pitcher’s real skill doesn’t mean it’s not there, so it’s likely that at least some of that difference is due to the pitchers.
Anyway, unlike many recent Yankee teams, the Yankees started out well, which was nice.
Sunday, July 11, 2010
NY Daily News: Joba Chamberlain gives up grand slam to Jose Lopez as Yankees fall to Mariners
SEATTLE - Now we know why Brian Cashman tried to trade for Cliff Lee on Friday. He needed an eighth-inning guy.
Joba Chamberlain continued his roller-coaster season Saturday night, wasting a brilliant effort by Javier Vazquez with a disastrous eighth. Chamberlain failed to protect a one-run lead, giving up a grand slam by Jose Lopez to deal the Yankees a 4-1 loss to the Mariners.
It’s really getting tiresome reading about how Joba’s having a bad year. We know the only reason he disappointed last year is because he wasn’t meant to be a starter, and returning to his rightful place in the bullpen would bring back the Joba of old.
We also know his FIP this year is 2.80, so he’s having a very good year. In fact, he should be an All Star, he’s just been “unlucky.”
As an aside, what does Jonathan Albaladejo have to do to get a shot at replacing Chan Ho Park?
Update: In an unrelated sad story, Bob Sheppard has passed away at age 99. Sheppard will always be the voice of Yankee Stadium in my mind. RIP Mr. Sheppard.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Yankees.com: After inching forward, Vazquez takes a step back
MINNEAPOLIS—Javier Vazquez kept his outfielders busy and didn’t miss many bats on Thursday, serving up a healthy portion of hard-hit balls as the Twins defeated the Yankees, 8-2, at Target Field, avoiding what would have been a three-game sweep.
Jason Kubel homered twice and drove in five runs for Minnesota, belting a solo shot off Vazquez in the sixth inning and a three-run blast off Chad Gaudin in the seventh.
I know this is normally where the complaint thread goes, but I thought we should focus on the positives from tonight.
- Mark Teixeira managed two whole hits
- Robinson Cano continues to hit well with runners in scoring position
- Javier Vazquez allowed fewer runs than innings pitched.
- Chan Ho Park was able to successfully retire one of the four batters he faced
- Aside from the homer by Jason Kubel, I thought Chad Gaudin’s stuff looked nasty (in a good way)
- The Yankees won two of three against a very good team in their park
- KC beat Boston
- Jorge Posada may return sooner, not later
- Curtis Granderson will be back tomorrow
Saturday, May 22, 2010
DFA Everyone
But start with Chan Ho Park and Randy Winn.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Yankee WAR Pie Chart Through Games of May 5, 2010
At 19-8, the Yankees have played at a pace that the mighty 1998 Yankees would have been proud of. More impressively, they were able to do it through what on paper looked like the hardest part of their schedule, although our estimates of the strength of the opposition may change as we move through the season.
So why have the Yankees been so good so far? It’s Pie Chart time!
WAR stands for wins above replacement. For position players it consists of batting runs above position-adjusted replacement level plus defense saved compared to average using an average of zone rating and UZR. For pitchers it’s just runs saved compared to a a replacement level pitcher using runs allowed per nine. These are context-neutral values, so they aren’t going to necessarily line up with actual game values once you factor in context.
Negative values don’t work with pie charts, so here’s the full list:
| Player | WAR |
| Andy Pettitte | 1.5 |
| Robinson Cano | 1.5 |
| A.J. Burnett | 1.4 |
| CC Sabathia | 1.2 |
| Phil Hughes | 1.1 |
| Brett Gardner | 0.9 |
| Jorge Posada | 0.7 |
| Nick Swisher | 0.7 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 0.6 |
| Mariano Rivera | 0.5 |
| Curtis Granderson | 0.4 |
| Derek Jeter | 0.4 |
| Marcus Thames | 0.4 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 0.3 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 0.3 |
| Sergio Mitre | 0.2 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 0.1 |
| Boone Logan | 0.1 |
| Nick Johnson | 0.0 |
| Damaso Marte | 0.0 |
| Greg Golson | 0.0 |
| Mark Teixeira | 0.0 |
| Chan Ho Park | -0.1 |
| Randy Winn | -0.1 |
| Mark Melancon | -0.2 |
| Ramiro Pena | -0.2 |
| David Robertson | -0.6 |
| Javier Vazquez | -1.1 |
As a team, the Yankees have been 10.2 wins above replacement level. I set replacement level at around 50 wins per 162 games, so over 27 games a replacement level team would win about 8.3 games. So those eight wins plus the 10.2 WAR = 18.5 wins, which is essentially what the Yankees have actually done.
Random fun with small sample sizes:
- Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes have combined for more than half of the team WAR at 5.3.
- Robinson Cano has been more valuable Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira COMBINED.
- TSBG = 0.9 WAR. A-Rod + Jeter + Teixeira = 0.9 WAR.
- The Yankee bullpen has combined for 0.4 WAR. Mariano Rivera has been worth 0.5 WAR.
Anyway, as always, remember that sample size is an issue, and that we should still expect players to play closer to how they projected to play going forward than how they’ve done so far this year. However, what’s happened so far can inform our going forward projections, so we shouldn’t ignore that either.
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Yankee Run Values Through Games of April 28, 2010
As promised, here’s how the Yankees look in terms of YTD performance.
| Player | Team | Lg | Pos | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | GDP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAA | BRAR | zRS | uRS | aRS | WAR |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | AL | 2B | 86 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | .390 | .430 | .701 | .468 | 19 | 9 | 12 | -2 | -3 | -2 | 0.9 |
| Jorge Posada | Yankees | AL | C | 65 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .316 | .400 | .649 | .438 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0.8 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 90 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .260 | .356 | .455 | .353 | 12 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | AL | RF | 78 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .284 | .385 | .493 | .382 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | AL | CF | 79 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | .243 | .329 | .414 | .327 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | AL | LF | 66 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | .310 | .394 | .362 | .348 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 0.4 |
| Francisco Cervelli | Yankees | AL | C | 21 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .444 | .524 | .500 | .462 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Marcus Thames | Yankees | AL | LF | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .563 | .857 | .591 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | -2 | -2 | 0.2 |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | AL | SS | 90 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .306 | .333 | .459 | .342 | 12 | 1 | 5 | -5 | -2 | -4 | 0.2 |
| Ramiro Pena | Yankees | AL | SS | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .111 | .111 | .111 | .100 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Nick Johnson | Yankees | AL | 1B | 78 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .143 | .385 | .232 | .318 | 8 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | AL | 1B | 92 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .133 | .293 | .253 | .265 | 7 | -4 | -3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -0.2 |
| Randy Winn | Yankees | AL | RF | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .077 | .077 | .077 | .069 | -1 | -2 | -2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -0.3 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs, not position adjusted
BRAA: Batting runs above an average player, not position-adjusted
BRAR: Batting runs above a replacement level player, position-adjusted
zRS: Runs saved compared to an average defender using zone rating:
uRS: Runs saved compared to an average defender using UZR:
aRS: Average of zRS and uRS
WAR: Wins above replacement, calculated as (BRAR + aRS) divided by 10
Robinson Cano’s been a monster offensively this season. Here are the AL leaders to this point.
Vernon Wells: 13.5 BRAR
Robinson Cano: 11.7 BRAR
Nelson Cruz: 11.1 BRAR
Justin Morneau: 10.2 BRAR
Miguel Cabrera: 9.5 BRAR
Evan Longoria: 8.8 BRAR
Jorge Posada: 8.7 BRAR
Ty Wigginton: 8.7 BRAR
Joe Mauer: 8.6 BRAR
Alex Gonzalez: 8.5 BRAR
Posada sneaks into this list too.
Unfortunately , Cano’s defense as reflected by both zone rating and UZR to this point takes away some of his value, although we have the standard caveats about the reliability of fielding metrics and the small sample size of 20 games that we need to take into account.
Hopefully Posada won’t need to miss too much time after being hit in the knee last night.
Would you be surprised if I told you that Cano has not been the most valuable Yankee this year?
| Player | Team | Lg | Role | G | GS | IP | TBF | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAR | WAR |
| Andy Pettitte | Yankees | AL | SP | 4 | 4 | 28.0 | 109 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 22 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 2.70 | 10.5 | 13.4 | 8.0 | 1.3 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | AL | SP | 5 | 5 | 34.7 | 135 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 28 | 3.38 | 3.12 | 3.46 | 4.9 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 0.8 |
| Phil Hughes | Yankees | AL | SP | 3 | 3 | 18.0 | 69 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 3.76 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| A.J. Burnett | Yankees | AL | SP | 4 | 4 | 25.3 | 107 | 28 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 3.55 | 3.20 | 3.75 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 0.6 |
| Mariano Rivera | Yankees | AL | RP | 8 | 0 | 7.0 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.34 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| Joba Chamberlain | Yankees | AL | RP | 10 | 0 | 9.7 | 41 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 3.72 | 3.72 | 3.41 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 0.1 |
| Sergio Mitre | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 4.3 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2.08 | 2.08 | 3.66 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Boone Logan | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 2.3 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 4.06 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Damaso Marte | Yankees | AL | RP | 8 | 0 | 4.3 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6.23 | 6.23 | 7.58 | -1.0 | -0.6 | -1.1 | -0.1 |
| Alfredo Aceves | Yankees | AL | RP | 5 | 0 | 7.7 | 36 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5.87 | 4.70 | 6.20 | -1.4 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.1 |
| Chan Ho Park | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 5.7 | 23 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6.35 | 4.76 | 6.73 | -1.3 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -0.1 |
| David Robertson | Yankees | AL | RP | 7 | 0 | 5.0 | 26 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10.80 | 10.80 | 3.80 | -3.6 | -3.2 | 0.8 | -0.3 |
| Javier Vazquez | Yankees | AL | SP | 4 | 4 | 20.0 | 93 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 6.45 | -9.7 | -7.6 | -2.7 | -0.8 |
TBF: Total batters faced
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above an average pitcher of the same role over the same # of innings, using RA.
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher (1.2 times average RA) of the same role over the same # of innings
FRSAR: RSAR if we use FIP instead of actual RA
WAR: Wins above replacement (RSAR divided by 10)
Battlecat just keeps on keeping on.
Here’s the whole team sorted by WAR.
| Rank | Player | WAR |
| 1 | Andy Pettitte | 1.3 |
| 2 | Robinson Cano | 0.9 |
| 3 | CC Sabathia | 0.8 |
| 4 | Jorge Posada | 0.8 |
| 5 | Phil Hughes | 0.7 |
| 6 | A.J. Burnett | 0.6 |
| 7 | Alex Rodriguez | 0.5 |
| 8 | Nick Swisher | 0.5 |
| 9 | Curtis Granderson | 0.5 |
| 10 | Mariano Rivera | 0.4 |
| 11 | Brett Gardner | 0.4 |
| 12 | Francisco Cervelli | 0.3 |
| 13 | Marcus Thames | 0.2 |
| 14 | Derek Jeter | 0.2 |
| 15 | Joba Chamberlain | 0.1 |
| 16 | Sergio Mitre | 0.1 |
| 17 | Boone Logan | 0.0 |
| 18 | Player | 0.0 |
| 19 | Ramiro Pena | 0.0 |
| 20 | Damaso Marte | -0.1 |
| 21 | Alfredo Aceves | -0.1 |
| 22 | Chan Ho Park | -0.1 |
| 23 | Nick Johnson | -0.1 |
| 24 | Mark Teixeira | -0.2 |
| 25 | Randy Winn | -0.3 |
| 26 | David Robertson | -0.3 |
| 27 | Javier Vazquez | -0.8 |
You know what’d be cool? If Mark Teixeira and Nick Johnson stopped hitting like Randy Winn.
Monday, April 12, 2010
2010 Opening Week In Review
If you trust the results of the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout, the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays are probably the three best teams in baseball. So starting the season by playing six games on the road against two of the three best teams in baseball had the potential to be pretty painful. Fortunately for us, the Yankees were up to the task, taking two of three from both of their rivals, enabling them to stay close to the Toronto juggernaut in the AL East.
Here’s a look at how the team performed statistically.
| Player | Team | Lg | Pos | G | AB | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | GDP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAR |
| Jorge Posada | Yankees | AL | C | 5 | 17 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .353 | .500 | .824 | .534 | 6.0 | 4.4 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | AL | CF | 6 | 23 | 26 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .348 | .423 | .652 | .452 | 6.2 | 3.9 |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | AL | 2B | 6 | 25 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .360 | .370 | .680 | .428 | 5.2 | 2.9 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | AL | RF | 6 | 21 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .440 | .571 | .437 | 4.9 | 2.4 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 6 | 27 | 29 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .259 | .310 | .481 | .336 | 3.6 | 1.2 |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | AL | SS | 6 | 28 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .286 | .333 | .321 | .300 | 3.2 | 0.9 |
| Francisco Cervelli | Yankees | AL | C | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .400 | .667 | .392 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | AL | LF | 5 | 17 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .294 | .368 | .294 | .313 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| Marcus Thames | Yankees | AL | LF | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .400 | .250 | .324 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Ramiro Pena | Yankees | AL | 3B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Randy Winn | Yankees | AL | RF | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | -0.2 | -0.4 |
| Nick Johnson | Yankees | AL | DH | 6 | 22 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .136 | .367 | .182 | .294 | 2.5 | -0.9 |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | AL | 1B | 6 | 24 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .125 | .276 | .167 | .229 | 1.3 | -1.8 |
| Total | 62 | 213 | 249 | 58 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 2 | .272 | .369 | .451 | .360 | 36.7 | 13.9 |
BR: Batting runs using linear weights
BRAR: Position-adjusted BR above replacement level
At this point, Teixeira’s a sunk cost and the Yankees should probably just release him and eat his salary. How about that Posada kid though? And this Granderson fella can play a bit as well. On a slightly more serious note, the Yankees put up 36 runs in six games on the road against two of the better projected run prevention teams in the league, which bodes nicely for the offense going forward.
| Player | Team | Lg | Role | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | AL | SP | 2 | 2 | 13.0 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 3.46 | 3.46 | 2.74 | 2.9 |
| Andy Pettitte | Yankees | AL | SP | 1 | 1 | 6.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 3.87 | 2.7 |
| Mariano Rivera | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 3.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.87 | 1.7 |
| A.J. Burnett | Yankees | AL | SP | 2 | 2 | 12.0 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 4.50 | 3.75 | 4.53 | 1.3 |
| Alfredo Aceves | Yankees | AL | RP | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.20 | 1.1 |
| David Robertson | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.20 | 1.1 |
| Sergio Mitre | Yankees | AL | RP | 1 | 0 | 2.3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 2.34 | 0.3 |
| Damaso Marte | Yankees | AL | RP | 2 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.20 | 0.2 |
| Joba Chamberlain | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 3.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 3.20 | -0.3 |
| Chan Ho Park | Yankees | AL | RP | 2 | 0 | 3.7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7.36 | 4.91 | 5.65 | -0.9 |
| Javier Vazquez | Yankees | AL | SP | 1 | 1 | 5.7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12.71 | 12.71 | 7.61 | -4.5 |
| Total | 21 | 6 | 53 | 49 | 26 | 24 | 4 | 18 | 34 | 4.42 | 4.08 | 3.92 | 5.5 |
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level.
Yay Battlecat! And if you need further proof about how foolish it was to put Joba in the rotation, look at how dominant he’s been as a reliever so far. I don’t care about sample size, he’s clearly the Joba of old again. Vindication for the JSPTE crowd!
UZR is not yet available for 2010, but here’s how the team performed this past week according to zone rating.
| Player | Tm | Lg | Pos | G | GS | CH | INN | PO | A | E | DP | ZR | PM | Avg ZR | AvgPM | Diff | RS |
| Rodriguez, Alex | NYY | AL | 3B | 6 | 6 | 19 | 52 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 3 | .947 | 18 | .826 | 16 | 2 | 2 |
| Granderson, Curtis | NYY | AL | CF | 6 | 6 | 26 | 53 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .923 | 24 | .881 | 23 | 1 | 1 |
| Teixeira, Mark | NYY | AL | 1B | 6 | 6 | 13 | 53 | 57 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1.000 | 13 | .943 | 12 | 1 | 1 |
| Gardner, Brett | NYY | AL | LF | 5 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .889 | 8 | .858 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Pena, Ramiro | NYY | AL | 3B | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1 | .826 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Winn, Randy | NYY | AL | RF | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1 | .867 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Swisher, Nick | NYY | AL | RF | 6 | 6 | 6 | 47 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .833 | 5 | .867 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Thames, Marcus | NYY | AL | LF | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .667 | 2 | .858 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| Jeter, Derek | NYY | AL | SS | 6 | 6 | 14 | 53 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 3 | .643 | 9 | .849 | 12 | -3 | -2 |
| Cano, Robinson | NYY | AL | 2B | 6 | 6 | 24 | 53 | 11 | 20 | 0 | 5 | .708 | 17 | .831 | 20 | -3 | -2 |
G: Games
GS: Games Started
CH: Playable Chances
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double Plays
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
PM: Plays Made
Avg ZR: ZR by average defender at the same position and in the same league
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved
Standard caveats about limitations of fielding metrics and sample size apply as always. At this point just one missed play can have a huge impact on a player’s RS total, so don’t make too much of these numbers yet, although I’ve been very pleased with Rodriguez’s defense at third so far. His hip doesn’t seem to be an issue in terms of his lateral range to this point.
For the hell of it, here’s how zone rating has all 30 MLB teams ranked (does not include catchers).
| TM | POS | Ch | PM | Diff | RS |
| Det | Total | 106 | 98 | 7 | 6 |
| Cle | Total | 100 | 92 | 6 | 5 |
| Fla | Total | 104 | 91 | 4 | 3 |
| StL | Total | 103 | 88 | 3 | 3 |
| Mil | Total | 101 | 87 | 3 | 3 |
| Atl | Total | 111 | 95 | 3 | 2 |
| Was | Total | 107 | 92 | 3 | 2 |
| SD | Total | 105 | 89 | 2 | 1 |
| Cin | Total | 107 | 91 | 1 | 1 |
| Oak | Total | 113 | 98 | 1 | 1 |
| Sea | Total | 130 | 113 | 1 | 1 |
| NYM | Total | 117 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
| Tor | Total | 99 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| ChC | Total | 98 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| Bos | Total | 121 | 104 | 0 | 0 |
| KC | Total | 114 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
| Min | Total | 124 | 106 | 0 | 0 |
| LAA | Total | 132 | 113 | 0 | 0 |
| Col | Total | 105 | 85 | -1 | -1 |
| NYY | Total | 116 | 98 | -2 | -1 |
| LA | Total | 95 | 76 | -2 | -1 |
| Bal | Total | 96 | 81 | -2 | -2 |
| Phi | Total | 106 | 86 | -2 | -2 |
| Ari | Total | 110 | 89 | -2 | -2 |
| SF | Total | 114 | 92 | -2 | -2 |
| TB | Total | 115 | 96 | -3 | -3 |
| Hou | Total | 120 | 97 | -4 | -3 |
| CWS | Total | 107 | 88 | -4 | -3 |
| Tex | Total | 91 | 74 | -4 | -3 |
| Pit | Total | 118 | 91 | -7 | -5 |
Shouldn’t the Red Sox be around +10 by now? Peter Gammons told me they were going to be historically great defensively.
When we looked at the April expectations using log 5, we saw that the Yankees would have been estimated to go 1.4 - 1.6 versus Boston and 1.5 and 1.5 versus Tampa Bay(and yes, I know you can’t win .4 or .5 or .6 games). That means they’d have been expected to be 2.94 - 3.06 after six games. All that means is they’re a game ahead of where we’d have put them, so we’d have to consider opening week a success.
| date | game | xW | xL | cxW | cxL | aW | aL | caW | caL | W+/- |
| 4-Apr | @Boston Red Sox | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -0.48 |
| 6-Apr | @Boston Red Sox | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.97 | 1.03 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 |
| 7-Apr | @Boston Red Sox | 0.48 | 0.52 | 1.45 | 1.55 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.55 |
| 9-Apr | @Tampa Bay Rays | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.95 | 2.05 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 |
| 10-Apr | @Tampa Bay Rays | 0.50 | 0.50 | 2.44 | 2.56 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.56 |
| 11-Apr | @Tampa Bay Rays | 0.50 | 0.50 | 2.94 | 3.06 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.06 |
xW/L: Expected wins/losses using log 5
cxW/L: Cumulative expected wins/losses using log 5
aW/L: Actual wins/losses for games played
caW/L: Cumulative ctual wins/losses for games played
W+/-: caW - cxW. Negative means behind pace, positive means ahead of pace
So now it’s on to a six game home stand against the Orange County Angels and the Texas Rangers.
| date | game | xW | xL | cxW | cxL |
| 13-Apr | vs. Los Angeles Angels | 0.65 | 0.35 | 3.59 | 3.41 |
| 14-Apr | vs. Los Angeles Angels | 0.65 | 0.35 | 4.23 | 3.77 |
| 15-Apr | vs. Los Angeles Angels | 0.65 | 0.35 | 4.88 | 4.12 |
| 16-Apr | vs. Texas Rangers | 0.61 | 0.39 | 5.49 | 4.51 |
| 17-Apr | vs. Texas Rangers | 0.61 | 0.39 | 6.09 | 4.91 |
| 18-Apr | vs. Texas Rangers | 0.61 | 0.39 | 6.7 | 5.3 |
| total | 3.78 | 2.22 |
Log 5 would tell you that the Yankees should go 3.78 - 2.22 on this homestand, but they’ll get swept by the Angels, which is going to make that impossible. So I guess it’s good they’ve got a game in the bank.
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Yankees.com: Homering in 10th, Granderson the hero
BOSTON—Curtis Granderson rocketed a Jonathan Papelbon offering into the right-field seats to lead off the top of the 10th inning on Wednesday, lifting the Yankees to a 3-1 victory over the Red Sox at Fenway Park.
After homering in his first at-bat as a member of the Yankees on Sunday, Granderson went deep in his first extra-innings plate appearance for New York, helping to make a winner of Chan Ho Park after the veteran reliever hurled three innings of scoreless, one-hit relief.
Curtis Granderson is awesome.
Chan Ho Park is awesome.
Mariano Rivera is the awesomest.
You have to be happy about taking 2 of 3 in Boston to start the year.
Jonathan:
Here are a few more pregame photos from last night.
Mo talking to Gammons. Peter Gammons dresses like a teenage prep school dropout.
CC signing autographs 3 hours before the game.
Nick Johnson in warmups. Don’t overdo it, Nick
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Opening Night Complaint Thread
Is it too soon to call for Chan Ho Park’s DFA?
Jonathan:
Before the night went to crap, I was able to snap a few pictures of my time down on the field during pre-game.
This is the view coming out of the tunnel from the Visitor’s clubhouse. It’s a terrible picture but at least proves I was there.
Posada running the bases during warmups. More running. I think I’d prefer him working on catching the ball instead.
Joba Chamberlain talking to NESN sideline reporter bunny Heidi Watney. But not because she’s hotter than sin, or anything.
As boring as these are, it really was the best part of the night, other than Boston’s first ace getting hammered.
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Yankees.com: Thames heads north with bench job
TAMPA, Fla.—Though it became something of a formality after Marcus Thames began producing this spring, Thames could not hide his excitement at officially making the Yankees’ 25-man roster.
“It felt great,” Thames said Saturday, after the news went public. “That was some weight lifted off my shoulders, because it’s been beating me up a little bit.”
Interesting note about Thames. He was originally a Yankee, and apparently he homered off Randy Johnson in his first MLB plate appearance. You’d think a story like that would get some more run than it has.
Anyway, with Boone Logan being demoted, we’ve got our Opening Day 25 man roster.
Starting Pitchers (5)
CC Sabathia
A.J. Burnett
Andy Pettitte
Javier Vazquez
Phil Hughes
Relief Pitchers (7)
Mariano Rivera
David Robertson
Alfredo Aceves
Joba Chamberlain
Damaso Marte
Sergio Mitre
Chan Ho Park
Catchers (2)
Francisco Cervelli
Jorge Posada
Infielders (6)
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Nick Johnson
Ramiro Pena
Alex Rodriguez
Mark Teixeira
Outfielders (5)
Brett Gardner
Curtis Granderson
Marcus Thames
Nick Swisher
Randy Winn
I will abstain from making a comment about my feelings about having Chan Ho Park on the team…
Friday, April 2, 2010
Looking Ahead to 2010 - Pitching Staff
Unfortunately this is going to be very brief because I’ve been busy with other stuff, but I wanted to get something posted so here it is.
I usually like to look at a few different scenarios with the pitching staff, so here's one that I'd consider fairly optimistic.
| Player | Role | IP | caR | chR | mR | oR | pR | zR | aR |
| CC Sabathia | SP1 | 220 | 85 | 93 | 90 | 84 | 89 | 93 | 89 |
| Javier Vazquez | SP2 | 200 | 84 | 92 | 87 | 80 | 84 | 86 | 85 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP3 | 180 | 86 | 96 | 90 | 88 | 84 | 98 | 90 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 170 | 87 | 89 | 92 | 86 | 88 | 93 | 89 |
| Phil Hughes | SP5 | 160 | 77 | 85 | 85 | 79 | 79 | 92 | 83 |
| Sergio Mitre | SP6 | 90 | 57 | 53 | 58 | 47 | 50 | 56 | 54 |
| Zachary McAllister | SP7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kei Igawa | SP8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SP9 | |||||||||
| Starters Total | 1020 | 475 | 509 | 501 | 464 | 475 | 517 | 490 | |
| Player | Role | IP | caR | chR | mR | oR | pR | zR | aR |
| Mariano Rivera | CL | 70 | 20 | 26 | 25 | 23 | 26 | 27 | 24 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 50 | 25 | 24 | 28 | 26 | 22 | 30 | 26 |
| David Robertson | SU | 65 | 30 | 28 | 33 | 26 | 29 | 30 | 29 |
| Alfredo Aceves | MR | 65 | 35 | 33 | 29 | 26 | 31 | 37 | 32 |
| Joba Chamberlain | MR | 65 | 31 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 26 | 30 | 29 |
| Chan Ho Park | MR | 60 | 35 | 32 | 30 | 35 | 34 | 36 | 34 |
| Boone Logan | MR | 45 | 28 | 26 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 27 |
| LR | |||||||||
| Relievers Total | 420 | 204 | 199 | 199 | 193 | 195 | 218 | 201 | |
| Pitchers Total | 1440 | 679 | 708 | 700 | 657 | 670 | 736 | 692 |
caR: Projected runs allowed over projected IP using CAIRO
chR: Projected runs allowed over projected IP using CHONE
mR: Projected runs allowed over projected IP using Marcel
oR: Projected runs allowed over projected IP using Oliver
pR: Projected runs allowed over projected IP using PECOTA
zR: Projected runs allowed over projected IP using ZiPS
aR: Average of the above
I'm showing about as little data as I can, namely an innings pitched estimate and then how many runs allowed that corresponds with for each of the six projection systems I've been using. Here's I'm basically assuming good health out of everyone, but with some Sergio Mitre and Boone Logan. To put these numbers in a context that's a little more obvious, the average team ERA would be around 3.98, with Oliver the lowest at 3.78 and zIPS the highest at 4.23.
The average runs allowed total of 692 with the average runs scored of 880 from this post would give us the Yankees PythagenPat winning percentage of about .614, which is a 99 win team in a neutral league.
If we assume a bit fewer innings out of the top five starters and a little more out of Mitre and McAllister with a touch of Kei Igawa (where Kei Igawa is a proxy for some replacement level pitcher, not necessarily Igawa himself) it'd look like this.
| Player | Role | IP | caR | chR | mR | oR | pR | zR | aR |
| CC Sabathia | SP1 | 200 | 77 | 85 | 82 | 77 | 81 | 85 | 81 |
| Javier Vazquez | SP2 | 180 | 75 | 83 | 78 | 72 | 76 | 77 | 77 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP3 | 160 | 76 | 85 | 80 | 78 | 75 | 87 | 80 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 140 | 71 | 73 | 76 | 71 | 73 | 76 | 73 |
| Phil Hughes | SP5 | 120 | 57 | 64 | 64 | 59 | 59 | 69 | 62 |
| Sergio Mitre | SP6 | 120 | 76 | 71 | 77 | 63 | 67 | 74 | 71 |
| Zachary McAllister | SP7 | 60 | 39 | 42 | 31 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 |
| Kei Igawa | SP8 | 40 | 32 | 28 | 23 | 29 | 29 | 31 | 29 |
| SP9 | |||||||||
| Starters Total | 1020 | 505 | 531 | 511 | 485 | 497 | 537 | 511 | |
| Player | Role | IP | caR | chR | mR | oR | pR | zR | aR |
| Mariano Rivera | CL | 70 | 20 | 26 | 25 | 23 | 26 | 27 | 24 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 50 | 25 | 24 | 28 | 26 | 22 | 30 | 26 |
| David Robertson | SU | 65 | 30 | 28 | 33 | 26 | 29 | 30 | 29 |
| Alfredo Aceves | MR | 65 | 35 | 33 | 29 | 26 | 31 | 37 | 32 |
| Joba Chamberlain | MR | 65 | 31 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 26 | 30 | 29 |
| Chan Ho Park | MR | 60 | 35 | 32 | 30 | 35 | 34 | 36 | 34 |
| Boone Logan | MR | 45 | 28 | 26 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 27 |
| LR | |||||||||
| Relievers Total | 420 | 204 | 199 | 199 | 193 | 195 | 218 | 201 | |
| Pitchers Total | 1440 | 709 | 730 | 710 | 678 | 691 | 756 | 712 |
20 more runs allowed, which would be more like a 97 win team.
One more scenario, which is one I'd consider pretty pessimistic.
| Player | Role | IP | caR | chR | mR | oR | pR | zR | aR |
| CC Sabathia | SP1 | 180 | 70 | 76 | 74 | 69 | 73 | 76 | 73 |
| Javier Vazquez | SP2 | 160 | 67 | 74 | 70 | 64 | 68 | 69 | 68 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP3 | 120 | 57 | 64 | 60 | 59 | 56 | 65 | 60 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 110 | 56 | 58 | 60 | 56 | 57 | 60 | 58 |
| Phil Hughes | SP5 | 100 | 48 | 53 | 53 | 49 | 50 | 58 | 52 |
| Sergio Mitre | SP6 | 140 | 89 | 83 | 90 | 73 | 78 | 87 | 83 |
| Zachary McAllister | SP7 | 100 | 65 | 69 | 52 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 |
| Kei Igawa | SP8 | 120 | 96 | 84 | 70 | 86 | 86 | 93 | 86 |
| SP9 | |||||||||
| Starters Total | 1030 | 548 | 562 | 528 | 518 | 530 | 570 | 543 | |
| Player | Role | IP | caR | chR | mR | oR | pR | zR | aR |
| Mariano Rivera | CL | 40 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 30 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 15 |
| David Robertson | SU | 50 | 23 | 21 | 25 | 20 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Alfredo Aceves | MR | 50 | 27 | 25 | 23 | 20 | 24 | 29 | 24 |
| Joba Chamberlain | MR | 60 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 27 | 24 | 27 | 27 |
| Chan Ho Park | MR | 60 | 35 | 32 | 30 | 35 | 34 | 36 | 34 |
| Boone Logan | MR | 60 | 38 | 34 | 33 | 36 | 36 | 37 | 36 |
| Romulo Sanchez | LR | 60 | 41 | 28 | 30 | 35 | 35 | 41 | 35 |
| Relievers Total | 410 | 218 | 199 | 199 | 202 | 203 | 228 | 208 | |
| Pitchers Total | 1440 | 766 | 760 | 727 | 720 | 732 | 798 | 751 |
Even if this case, with an 880 run offense the Yankees would still project around 93 wins. Mark Melancon is around for some bullpen depth, and McAllister's projections are actually pretty solid if he's needed, but after them things get a little dicier. I'm still annoyed that the Yankees dumped Edwar Ramirez and Chad Gaudin but wanted Chan Ho Park, but that's really the only thing I have a quibble with.
Of course, more could go worse than even in this scenario and the offense may not score 880 runs, but I think on paper we should be pretty comfortable that the Yankees are pretty damn good. That's really all we can ask for, isn't it?
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