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Friday, September 30, 2011

2011 ALDS Preview: Tigers vs. Yankees

The first obstacle in the quest to end the dreaded curse of The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske is the Detroit Tigers.

Seriously, it has been 694 days, 11 hours, 15 minutes, and 45 seconds since the New York Yankees have won a World Series.  We have suffered long enough, haven’t we?  When will this infernal madness end?

So how big of an obstacle are the Tigers?  Let’s take a look.

First, I’ll acknowledge the obvious fact that the Tigers played in and won the AL Central which is probably the weakest division in the AL.

I’ll then say that it doesn’t matter.  This is a very good team, and it’s not a stretch to envision them representing the AL in the World Series.

If you read the Rays/Rangers preview you can skip the next paragraph.

I don’t particularly find any series previews that focus on what a team did in the preceding full season of much use.  It doesn’t really matter if a team scored 5.2 runs per game and allowed 4.2 runs per game over the preceding six months.  Rosters change, injuries happen, players come and go, talent changes, and player and team performance is often subject to fluctuations that are not predictive.  What I want to know is how many runs will the team and roster as currently configured score and allow.  Because of that, for these previews I’ll be using projections in lieu of 2011 stats.  Despite having my own system in CAIRO, I’m going to use the Hardball Times’s Oliver forecasts since I haven’t had the time to re-run CAIRO for this year.  Oliver is updated weekly during the season and includes 2011 MLEs for players who saw time in the minors. 

The biggest consideration in trying to see how any series may shape up is allocating playing time.  So here are depth charts for the two teams, based on the assumption that each team will make 25 outs at the plate over 5 games and that pitchers will combine for 45 innings.  Since I didn’t have official postseason rosters while writing parts of these, some of it is guesswork and is subject to change.

Here are the Oliver projections for the Tigers’ postseason position players.

Name	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Jackson, Austin	CF	21	.263/.315/.374	14	2.24	.303	.311	.300
Kelly, Don	3B	21	.268/.312/.413	14	2.34	.314	.286	.317
Young, Delmon	LF	21	.283/.314/.446	14	2.52	.327	.344	.320
Cabrera, Miguel	1B	21	.334/.422/.602	12	4.11	.435	.455	.429
Martinez, Victor	C	21	.312/.365/.480	13	3.08	.367	.372	.364
Peralta, Jhonny	SS	21	.270/.324/.426	14	2.50	.326	.339	.321
Avila, Alex	C	21	.270/.351/.456	14	2.89	.350	.327	.356
Dirks, Andy	RF	21	.265/.311/.415	14	2.45	.315	.294	.318
Santiago, Ramon	2B	21	.276/.319/.394	14	2.30	.307	.304	.308
Starter Total		189	.282/.337/.444	125	24.42	.338	.338	.338
Bench	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Betemit, Wilson	IF	0	.259/.323/.424	0	0.00	.325	.298	.334
Ordonez, Magglio	OF	0	.282/.344/.412	0	0.00	.334	.352	.329
Raburn, Ryan	OF	0	.268/.317/.465	0	0.00	.334	.349	.323
Rhymes, Will	2B	0	.272/.326/.361	0	0.00	.303	.283	.307
Inge, Brandon	3B	0	.230/.304/.384	0	0.00	.303	.328	.294
Worth, Danny	IF	0	.229/.284/.328	0	0.00	.272	.283	.263
Kelly, Don	UT	0	.268/.312/.413	0	0.00	.314	.286	.317
Santos, Omir	C	0	.228/.255/.333	0	0.00	.255	.264	.250
Bench Total
Team Total		189	.282/.337/.444	125	24.42	.338	.338	.338

Outs: Outs at the plate (assumes 25 outs per 9 innings, calculated as (1 - OBP) times PA + GDP per PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
vs. L/R: Projected wOBA splits vs. LHP/RHP using regressed platoon splits

Rather than guess about how the Tigers may allocate playing time, I just gave the expected starting lineup all 125 outs. 

The biggest problem here is Miguel Cabrera.  Cabrera’s pretty much the best hitter in the AL.  In fact, only one player has been a better hitter than him over the last three years, and that’s Albert Pujols.  That projected wOBA of .455 vs. LHP is terrifying for Game 1.  The Yankees probably don’t have much room for error facing Verlander, so the Cabrera/Sabathia matchup is probably going to be the one to watch.  You can see by the OBP of the rest of the team that keeping people like Austin Jackson, Don Kelly and Delmon Young off the bases in front of Cabrera is going to be imperative.

The Tigers overall don’t have much of a projected platoon split, so the Yankees’ lack of left-handed pitching shouldn’t be a big deal.

I don’t think any Tigers fans would disagree that the Yankees’ lineup is better.  Their hopes are going to lay on their pitching staff, and that’s not a bad position to be in.

Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Verlander, Justin	SP1	14	4.8	3.11	2.89	3.05
Fister, Doug	SP2	6	2.6	3.94	3.67	3.49
Scherzer, Max	SP3	6	3.1	4.61	4.10	3.98
Porcello, Rick	SP4	5	2.7	4.88	4.51	4.35
Penny, Brad	SP5	0	0.0	5.43	4.85	4.65
Starter Total		31	13.3	3.85	3.54	3.52
Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Valverde, Jose	CL	3	1.3	3.90	3.61	3.72
Benoit, Joaquin	SU	3	1.1	3.25	3.01	3.10
Alburquerque, Al	SU	2	0.9	4.20	3.89	3.71
Coke, Phil	SU	2	1.0	4.40	4.07	3.68
Pauley, David	MR	2	1.1	4.76	4.41	4.44
Perry, Ryan	MR	1	0.5	4.61	4.27	4.12
Schlereth, Daniel	MR	1	0.5	4.85	4.49	4.31
Marte, Luis	LR	0	0.0	5.26	4.87	4.97
Below, Duane	LR	0	0.0	5.49	5.08	5.33
	LR	0	0.0
Reliever Total		14	6.4	4.12	3.81	3.75
Team Total		45	19.7	3.93	3.62	3.59

RA: Runs allowed per 9, calculated as 1.08*ERA
ERA: Earned runs allowed per 9
FIP: Fielding independent pitching

Justin Verlander’s obviously the man here.  He’s been the best pitcher in baseball this year and is a worthy MVP candidate.  He’s backed up by mid-season acquisition Doug Fister, who’s been sublime for the Tigers.  The Tigers are 9-2 in his 11 starts, and he’s pitched 70.1 innings and allowed just 19 runs.  He’s faced 273 batters and walked 5 of them.  Seriously.  He’s probably not quite that good, but he’d project as the second-best starter on the Yankees.

Jim Leyland has said that he will not pitch Verlander on three days rest, so I’m giving Rick Porcello five innings.  I don’t know if things would change if the Tigers go down 2-1.  If they did that, they could throw Fister in Game 5 and not use Porcello in the rotation at all.

The Tigers’ defense has been about average overall, not much different than the Yankees.  So I’m not going to bother with talking about that.

So, how about the Yankees’ projections?

Name	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Jeter, Derek	SS	22	.306/.363/.416	14	2.83	.345	.369	.337
Granderson, Curtis	CF	22	.259/.342/.496	14	3.24	.358	.314	.374
Cano, Robinson	2B	22	.312/.359/.511	14	3.38	.374	.358	.381
Rodriguez, Alex	3B	18	.289/.367/.527	11	2.89	.382	.389	.380
Teixeira, Mark	1B	22	.265/.357/.498	14	3.29	.369	.380	.364
Swisher, Nick	RF	21	.271/.364/.475	13	3.03	.364	.375	.359
Posada, Jorge	DH	16	.259/.345/.448	10	2.12	.347	.347	.347
Martin, Russell	C	21	.252/.345/.380	14	2.39	.326	.344	.320
Gardner, Brett	LF	19	.269/.353/.376	12	2.34	.326	.306	.332
Starter Total		183	.277/.355/.460	118	25.50	.355	.354	.355
Bench	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Montero, Jesus	DH	4	.278/.329/.483	3	0.54	.348	.361	.340
Jones, Andruw	OF	2	.251/.344/.502	1	0.30	.363	.381	.357
Nunez, Eduardo	IF	0	.278/.308/.381	0	0.00	.301	.302	.300
Chavez, Eric	3B	4	.245/.296/.355	3	0.38	.288	.257	.300
Romine, Austin	C	0	.246/.289/.364	0	0.00	.287	.300	.283
Dickerson, Chris	OF	0	.239/.315/.341	0	0.00	.295	.272	.299
Pena, Ramiro	IF	0	.239/.283/.327	0	0.00	.269	.256	.273
Cervelli, Francisco	C	0	.263/.314/.365	0	0.00	.298	.310	.293
Bench Total		10	.260/.319/.435	7	1.22	.327	.323	.327
Team Total		193	.276/.353/.458	125	26.72	.353	.352	.354

I’ve relegated Jesus Montero to pinch-hitting status, since DH vs. LHP is effectively a non-position vs. Detroit.  I suppose we may see him pinch-hit for Posada if a one of Phil Coke/Daniel Schlereth is on the mound.  Or he could get a start if Posada doesn’t look so good.  Statistically, Posada’s projection vs. RHP is better than Montero’s so I suppose it’s the logical approach. I’m also not sanguine on A-Rod playing every inning so I’ve given Chavez four PA, and I’m assuming we may see Andruw Jones pinch-hit for TSBG in a late situation vs. a LHP where an XBH would be of additional benefit.

Oliver thinks the Yankees have the best offense in the postseason, and I’d agree with that.  Unfortunately, the Yankees have to pitch too.

Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Sabathia, CC	SP1	14	5.8	3.70	3.43	3.28
Nova, Ivan	SP2	12	6.4	4.77	4.36	4.33
Garcia, Freddy	SP3	5	2.6	4.60	4.36	4.33
Colon, Bartolo	SP4	0	0.0	4.82	4.04	3.97
Burnett, A.J.	SP5	0	0.0	5.21	4.82	4.49
Hughes, Phil	SP6	0	0.0	4.45	4.12	4.17
Betances, Dellin	SP7	0	0.0	5.36	4.96	4.83
Brackman, Andrew	SP8	0	0.0	6.80	6.30	5.88
Starter Total		31	14.7	4.26	3.94	3.86
Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Rivera, Mariano	CL	3	1.0	3.03	2.81	2.89
Robertson, David	SU	3	1.2	3.75	3.47	3.05
Soriano, Rafael	SU	2	0.8	3.61	3.34	3.64
Logan, Boone	SU	2	1.0	4.32	4.00	3.77
Wade, Cory	MR	2	1.0	4.38	4.06	4.09
Ayala, Luis	MR	2	1.0	4.50	4.17	3.92
Noesi, Hector	MR	0	0.0	4.59	4.25	4.03
Proctor, Scott	LR	0	0.0	5.78	5.35	5.21
Laffey, Aaron	LR	0	0.0	5.56	5.15	4.59
Kontos, George	LR	0	0.0	5.38	4.98	5.02
Reliever Total		14	6.0	3.86	3.57	3.48
Team Total		45	20.7	4.14	3.82	3.74

The assumption here is CC on three days rest.  I’m assuming that Burnett and Hughes won’t pitch even though they’re on the roster, but if they do pitch their innings would probably just replace Ayala or Wade’s and it shouldn’t make a big difference.

The Yankees probably have the worst projected rotation in the postseason.  CC’s as good as anyone, but after that there’s some concern about Nova and Garcia.  I do think that projection is a little bearish on Nova since we have evidence that his new slider has made a meaningful improvement that wouldn’t be captured in a projection system.

Nova pre-slider: 226 BF, 9.3% BB/BF, 11.5% K/BF, 5.19 RA, 4.29 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 4.92 xFIP
Nova post-slider: 278 BF, 7.5% BB/BF, 15.1% K/BF, 3.52 RA, 3.44 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 4.03 xFIP

The Yankee bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this year, and although the projections think most of them pitched above their head they’re probably still better than Detroit’s from top to bottom.  So the Yankees should be able to mitigate their slight disadvantage in the rotation by using the relievers aggressively.  I can imagine that any David Robertson/Miguel Cabrera battles are going to be must-see baseball.

These depth charts say this.

Team	Gms	RS	RA	wpct	p162
DET	5	24.4	19.7	.600	97
NYA	5	26.7	20.7	.620	100

If I play the series out 10,000 times in my Monte Carlo simulator I get these odds.

Yankees: 53.9%
Tigers: 46.1%

If the Tigers do decide to use Verlander in Game 4 and Fister in Game 5 they improve to about a .612 wpct/99 win team.  Basically, those two teams are equivalent.  The Yankees get the slight edge of one extra home game if necessary.  In that case the odds look like this.

Yankees: 51.9%
Tigers: 48.1%