The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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USA Today: The Yankees are making A-Rod a DH, and he could actually help them there
(48 Comments - 12/17/2014 11:32:29 pm)

NY Post: How Chase Headley perfectly embodies the 2015 Yankees
(29 Comments - 12/17/2014 10:27:19 am)

YES Network: LHP Capuano returning to Yankees
(42 Comments - 12/17/2014 9:26:39 am)

Yankees To Sign Chase Headley
(69 Comments - 12/16/2014 10:19:25 am)

NYDN: Max Scherzer not likely to end up with Yankees, Brian Cashman says
(17 Comments - 12/15/2014 11:41:05 am)

Projecting the 2015 Yankees on December 12, 2014
(91 Comments - 12/15/2014 4:04:07 am)

MLB Trade Rumors: Dodgers Sign Brandon McCarthy
(80 Comments - 12/12/2014 1:57:30 am)

NY Post: Brian Cashman’s complicated Yankees wish list
(53 Comments - 12/11/2014 1:10:42 pm)

MLB Trade Rumors: White Sox to Sign David Robertson
(83 Comments - 12/10/2014 8:37:44 am)

NY Post: Yankees bought leverage for Robertson, Headley talks
(37 Comments - 12/9/2014 1:41:45 am)



Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Sunday, March 30, 2014

CAIRO 2014 v1.0 and MLB Projected Standings

I’ve posted the final pre-season version of the 2014 CAIRO MLB projections and they are available at this link.

Yeah, I know that technically the season has already started.  You can ignore the Dodgers and Diamondbacks projections if you want.

Unfortunately because of time constraints I wasn’t able to run my full set of projected standings this year.  But you can check out the following places for projected standings.

Clay Davenport’s 2014 Projected Standings
Fangraphs’ 2014 Projected Standings using a combination of Steamer and ZiPS
Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projected 2014 standings

And here are CAIRO’s projected standings for 2014.

Date 3/30/2014
Iterations 100,000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/-
Red Sox 90 72 784 734 34.5% 12.5% 11.1% 58.1% 79-99
Rays 86 76 633 580 26.5% 12.2% 11.3% 49.9% 75-95
Yankees 84 78 735 706 15.3% 9.0% 10.0% 34.3% 73-93
Orioles 84 78 751 713 15.0% 8.9% 9.9% 33.7% 73-93
Blue Jays 81 81 798 784 8.7% 6.0% 7.8% 22.4% 71-91
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Tigers 90 72 722 650 75.5% 4.6% 3.8% 84.0% 80-100
Indians 81 81 696 678 17.7% 8.5% 8.3% 34.5% 70-90
Royals 79 83 675 731 4.8% 2.4% 3.7% 11.0% 68-88
Twins 73 89 674 749 1.5% 0.7% 1.2% 3.4% 62-82
White Sox 69 93 669 776 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.9% 59-79
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Rangers 87 75 769 677 57.6% 10.8% 7.5% 76.0% 77-97
Athletics 83 79 696 651 24.9% 12.8% 10.9% 48.5% 73-93
Mariners 82 80 658 660 11.9% 7.7% 8.6% 28.3% 71-91
Angels 78 84 662 681 5.5% 3.9% 5.4% 14.8% 68-88
Astros 68 94 674 848 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 58-78
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Nationals 91 71 696 595 76.8% 7.9% 4.9% 89.6% 81-101
Braves 85 77 640 616 17.7% 16.8% 13.5% 48.0% 74-94
Phillies 78 84 620 643 4.0% 4.8% 6.5% 15.3% 68-88
Mets 73 89 581 641 0.9% 1.0% 1.9% 3.8% 63-83
Marlins 73 89 582 658 0.6% 0.7% 1.4% 2.6% 63-83
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Cardinals 85 77 609 570 41.0% 6.5% 7.9% 55.4% 74-94
Pirates 85 77 576 553 32.7% 6.5% 8.2% 47.4% 74-94
Reds 82 80 657 651 19.5% 5.0% 7.1% 31.6% 71-91
Brewers 76 86 696 739 5.2% 1.5% 2.9% 9.6% 65-85
Cubs 72 90 626 693 1.6% 0.4% 1.0% 3.0% 61-81
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Dodgers 91 71 626 553 58.9% 14.3% 9.0% 82.2% 81-101
Giants 87 75 606 557 27.3% 19.0% 13.7% 60.0% 76-96
Padres 80 82 599 593 6.0% 6.5% 8.9% 21.3% 69-89
Diamondbacks 79 83 617 624 4.2% 5.0% 7.1% 16.3% 68-88
Rockies 78 84 806 831 3.6% 4.1% 6.1% 13.8% 67-87

W: Projected final 2014 wins
L: Projected final 2014 losses
RS: Projected final 2014 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2014 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation

This does account for the fact that Dodgers won the first two games against Arizona, which added about one win to their final projection and an extra loss to the Diamondbacks.

This lines up about where CAIRO has the Yankees pegged with my depth charts, around 84 wins and needing some good fortune to contend for the division, particularly since they’re in what looks l like the best division top to bottom in baseball this year.

--Posted at 4:48 pm by SG / 76 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, November 20, 2013

CAIRO 2014 v0.2’s Extremely Early and Completely Useless 2013 Projected MLB Standings

I figured I had a long offseason ahead of me if I was going to do everything in my power to make the Yankees look better than they are. The thing that needed to be done first was put the Yankees in the context of the rest of MLB.  So I’ve been working on building my CAIRO season simulation disk and gave it a trial run last night.  This was current through rosters as of yesterday morning.

As the title says, this is extremely early and completely useless so think of it more as a goof than anything too serious.  So using CAIRO v0.2 which I’ll probably post tomorrow and the depth charts from MLB Depth Charts and Rotochamp as a rough gauge of playing time, here’s how the 2014 MLB season looks as of November 20.

Date 11/20/2013
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 92 70 808 728 53.4% 10.7% 9.8% 73.9%
Rays 87 75 664 587 21.3% 11.6% 11.7% 44.5%
Blue Jays 86 76 816 761 14.9% 10.2% 11.7% 36.8%
Orioles 84 78 750 711 10.4% 6.3% 8.7% 25.4%
Yankees 71 91 674 801 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Tigers 91 71 773 661 71.1% 4.9% 4.5% 80.6%
Indians 85 77 725 670 21.6% 10.1% 10.0% 41.7%
Royals 79 83 703 758 6.1% 2.0% 4.1% 12.1%
Twins 74 88 707 774 1.2% 0.2% 0.8% 2.2%
White Sox 70 92 711 804 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 91 71 760 641 61.4% 12.9% 9.0% 83.3%
Athletics 86 76 710 641 24.6% 17.6% 16.4% 58.6%
Angels 84 78 664 643 13.8% 12.8% 12.4% 39.0%
Mariners 72 90 617 684 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 1.4%
Astros 54 108 660 970 0.0% - - -
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Nationals 90 72 697 608 52.9% 19.3% 10.1% 82.3%
Braves 90 72 645 589 45.1% 23.5% 10.5% 79.1%
Phillies 77 85 634 676 1.4% 1.6% 3.8% 6.9%
Marlins 73 89 574 641 0.5% 0.9% 1.7% 3.2%
Mets 68 94 589 682 0.1% - 0.1% 0.2%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Reds 87 75 676 620 34.6% 9.8% 9.3% 53.7%
Pirates 87 75 593 551 36.3% 8.7% 10.3% 55.2%
Cardinals 85 77 621 574 27.1% 9.0% 10.5% 46.5%
Brewers 75 87 706 763 1.3% 0.8% 1.5% 3.6%
Cubs 73 89 625 680 0.9% 0.3% 1.0% 2.1%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Dodgers 88 74 640 584 42.3% 7.0% 10.4% 59.6%
Giants 85 77 607 574 20.0% 6.5% 10.5% 37.1%
Diamondbacks 84 78 618 588 20.0% 6.3% 9.9% 36.2%
Rockies 81 81 852 861 9.9% 3.2% 6.4% 19.6%
Padres 80 82 602 596 7.8% 3.0% 4.1% 14.9%

W: Projected final 2014 wins
L: Projected final 2014 losses
RS: Projected final 2014 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2014 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation

Let me reiterate, these are extremely early and completely useless.  There are literally hundreds of free agents still out there to be signed, and trades to be made, and players to be injured.  There’s also the traditional error bars that projections have, which means you should probably look at this with a 10 game swing on either side of a team’s average projected win total, particularly right now with so much roster churn to come.

But if you are a Yankee fan, like I used to be, this is pretty disheartening.  It’s not surprising, and if you put the lineup and pitching staff together based on how they project in 2014 you will see they are about as far from championship caliber as any team in the American League.  Maybe moreso considering the relative strength of their division. 

No, the Astros are not an AL team, even if they use a DH.

Don’t worry though, the Yankees will sign Carlos Beltran and he’ll make them a 95 win team.

--Posted at 8:09 am by SG / 61 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, September 24, 2013

TGS NY: Prez: It ain’t over until it’s over

NEW YORK—Even though the Yankees are four games out of the AL wild card with six games to play, their team president refuses to raise any white flags.

“It is going to be very hard,” Randy Levine told ESPN New York on Monday. “We are not eliminated. As Yogi says, ‘It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.’”
...
If the Yankees were to win all six games, our own Dan Szymborski says there is a 15 percent chance the team would make the post-season.

I hate to break it to you Randy, but yeah, it’s over.

--Posted at 8:14 am by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Abandon Hope All Ye Who Enter Here

Let’s face it.  The Yankees lost any reasonable chance at the postseason when they let Boston beat them like a rented mule six of the last seven times they played them.  Their second half ‘push’ for a postseason spot has consisted of a 28-27 record since the All Star Break and a 7-9 record in September.  So now they are staring at these odds.

1) Qualify for the second wild card (3.8%)
2) Qualify for the second wild card and win the play-in game (1.8%)
3) Qualify for the second wild card, win the play-in game, and beat a clearly superior Red Sox team in a 5 game series. (0.0%)

Their reward for getting into the ALDS would be getting swept by Boston, so what’s the point?

The Yankees have 11 games left.  Here are their odds for qualifying for the postseason assuming they lose no more than 3 of those games.

Record W L WC1 WC2 PS%
11-0 90 72 53.0% 38.5% 90.0%
10-1 89 73 26.0% 45.8% 70.0%
9-2 88 74 2.3% 24.5% 27.0%
8-3 87 75 - 6.5% 6.5%

The odds of this team going 11-0 are probably around 0.05%.  That’s five one-hundredths of one percent. 

In the 10-1 scenario the assumption is that they lose one game to the Rays. 

In 9-2 they lose an additional game to San Francisco If they go 9-2 with both losses being against Tampa Bay their postseason odds go from 27% to 14%.

In the 8-3 scenario they lose a single game to three of their four remaining opponents.  The who isn’t really all that important.

In a lot of ways, given the play that the Yankees have gotten from so many players for so much of the year, that they made it this close is an achievement.  It just doesn’t feel like one given a plan that looked like a shitty one at the beginning of the season and given the fact that this is the team with the highest payroll in baseball history.  While some things could not have been foreseen (Granderson and Teixeira’s injuries, CC Sabathia morphing into Dave LaPoint, etc.,) a lot of it was painfully obvious to anyone who doesn’t work for the Yankees (Kevin Youkilis and Travis Hafner not being able to stay healthy, not having an alternative for SS and 3B given the uncertain health status of Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, etc.,)

I see little reason to think next year’s team is going to be any better than this one, and plenty of reason to think they’ll be worse.

At least we’ll get to see Mo in CF on the last day of the season.

--Posted at 10:32 am by SG / 20 Comments | - (0)




Monday, September 9, 2013

2013 AL Postseason Odds through September 8

TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 97 65 841 690 97.1% 1.6% 1.0% 99.7%
Tigers 94 68 820 656 95.9% 1.2% 0.8% 97.9%
Athletics 94 68 730 638 64.9% 25.9% 6.1% 96.8%
Rangers 92 70 742 659 35.2% 36.3% 14.5% 85.9%
Rays 88 74 701 653 1.9% 18.6% 24.9% 45.5%
Indians 87 75 731 696 3.2% 6.5% 21.3% 31.0%
Yankees 86 76 690 686 0.4% 4.4% 15.1% 19.9%
Orioles 86 76 757 720 0.6% 4.6% 10.3% 15.5%
Royals 84 78 667 637 0.9% 1.0% 6.0% 7.9%
Blue Jays 76 86 738 759 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0%
Twins 70 92 645 759 0.0% - - -
White Sox 66 96 627 717 0.0% - - -
Angels 77 85 736 729 0.0% - - -
Mariners 73 89 639 743 0.0% - - -
Astros 53 109 631 857 0.0% - - -

W: Projected final 2013 wins
L: Projected final 2013 losses
RS: Projected final 2013 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2013 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

--Posted at 8:24 am by SG / 41 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, September 5, 2013

The AL East Postseason Implications of this Series with Boston

The Yankees have no chance of making the postseason, but this series could impact the Rays and Orioles, so here’s how the various potential outcomes of this series affect the various postseason odds for the teams in the AL East.

Now
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 96 66 826 678 97.5% 0.5% 0.5% 98.5%
Rays 89 73 706 650 2.0% 21.0% 43.3% 66.3%
Yankees 87 75 678 667 0.5% 4.5% 19.5% 24.5%
Orioles 85 77 762 729 0.0% - 3.2% 3.2%
Red Sox 4-0
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 98 64 826 678 99.5% 0.5% - 100.0%
Rays 90 72 706 650 0.5% 21.8% 48.7% 71.0%
Orioles 85 77 762 729 0.0% 0.3% 9.5% 9.8%
Yankees 85 77 678 667 0.0% 0.5% 3.8% 4.3%
Red Sox 3-1
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 97 65 826 678 98.0% 0.8% - 98.8%
Rays 90 72 706 650 2.0% 21.8% 45.9% 69.8%
Yankees 86 76 678 667 0.0% 2.3% 8.4% 10.8%
Orioles 85 77 762 729 0.0% 0.3% 5.3% 5.6%
Split
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 96 66 826 678 96.5% 2.0% - 98.5%
Rays 89 73 706 650 3.5% 11.8% 51.3% 66.7%
Yankees 87 75 678 667 0.0% 4.8% 16.8% 21.7%
Orioles 85 77 762 729 0.0% 1.0% 4.5% 5.5%
Yankees 3-1
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 95 67 826 678 90.8% 2.3% 2.0% 95.2%
Rays 89 73 706 650 7.8% 16.0% 32.0% 55.8%
Yankees 88 74 678 667 1.3% 4.0% 20.0% 25.3%
Orioles 85 77 762 729 0.0% - 6.5% 6.5%
Yankees 4-0
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 94 68 826 678 82.5% 6.3% 3.8% 92.7%
Rays 90 72 706 650 13.0% 12.9% 26.6% 52.5%
Yankees 89 73 678 667 4.5% 7.6% 34.5% 46.6%
Orioles 85 77 762 729 0.0% - 8.9% 8.9%

Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

A few notes.

1) 100.0% is more like 99.999999999%.  No team is actually 100.0% until they clinch but I don’t want really wide columns.
2) I removed team strength variability from these simulations to focus on the delta.  In actuality we should expect lower percentages near the top and higher percentages near the bottom.  Despite that there may be some fluctuations around the team win totals due to rounding.
3) I’m estimating the Yankees as presently constituted as around an 89 win team.  In actuality they are more like a 40 win team so just replace every number that’s not a 0 with a 0.

Anyway, this isn’t worth all that much because over a 20-25 game stretch anything can happen.

Anything except the Yankees qualifying for the postseason.

--Posted at 10:33 am by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)




Monday, August 26, 2013

NY Times: Yankees Find a Way to Avoid a Sweep

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — At age 37 with cranky knees, Alfonso Soriano is not nearly as swift as he once was. In an earlier life with the Yankees in his middle 20s, Soriano was able to rely on sheer speed and agility as he twice recorded seasons with 40 stolen bases.

Now, stolen bases come more from his mind and the knowledge he has accrued in 15 years in the major leagues, and few were as critical as the one he swiped in the 11th inning Sunday that led directly to a vital 3-2 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays.

Summoning every bit of information about the craft of base stealing that he had gleaned from his previous 365 attempts — and with his manager’s blessing — Soriano set out on an 85-foot sprint that changed the course of the game, and perhaps the Yankees’ playoff hopes.

The Yankees really needed to win two of the three games in Tampa Bay over this weekend, but alas they couldn’t do it.  Saturday’s game was the killer, as CC Sabathia looked like vintage CC for just about the whole game except for a four batter stretch that cost the Yankees their 2-0 lead and the game.  CC was pretty much sitting 94-95 all game, something he hasn’t done all year.  Unfortunately, even if he pitches well going forward it’s probably too little and too late.

The big problem the Yankees face now is that they need a lot of help from a lot of crappy teams.  They’re fighting against Cleveland and Oakland teams that have easier schedules going forward, even if the Yankees were able to take care of their own business against Baltimore, Boston and Tampa Bay.  Here are my estimated projected strengths of schedule for each team over the rest of the season, accounting for home field advantage.

Team Opponent W%
Indians .486
Athletics .490
Rangers .492
Yankees .500
Rays .509
Red Sox .512
Orioles .522

And here’s how many wins every team ahead of the Yankees project to end the season with.

TM W
Tigers 98
Red Sox 94
Rangers 93
Rays 93
Athletics 90
Indians 88
Orioles 86
Yankees 85

Let’s put that in the perspective of the expected W-L records over the rest of the season.

Team W L
Yankees 16 16
Rays 19 15
Rangers 18 14
Athletics 18 15
Red Sox 17 13
Indians 17 15
Orioles 16 17

Let’s forget about Boston, Tampa Bay and Texas for now.  I can’t see the Yankees making up the seven or eight games in projected record over the rest of the season to catch any of them.  Yeah, they play Boston seven more times, all at home, but even if they win five of those seven games they still have to make up another five games.  They play the Rays just three more times, so even if they sweep that series they would have to make up another four games.

The Yankees play the Orioles seven more times (three at home, four on the road so they can pass them by beating them.

Which means it’s basically down to winning the games they can win and then watching what Oakland and Cleveland do in these remaining games.

Game #
Angels@Athletics 3
Astros@Athletics 4
Athletics@Angels 3
Athletics@Mariners 3
Athletics@Rangers 3
Athletics@Tigers 4
Athletics@Twins 3
Rangers@Athletics 3
Rays@Athletics 3
Twins@Athletics 4
Game #
Astros@Indians 4
Indians@Braves 3
Indians@Royals 3
Indians@Tigers 3
Indians@Twins 4
Indians@White Sox 4
Mets@Indians 3
Orioles@Indians 3
Royals@Indians 3
White Sox@Indians 2

I’d feel better about the Yankees’ chances if Oakland didn’t have so many games left against the Angels, Astros, Mariners and Twins and Cleveland didn’t have so many games left against the Astros, Twins, White Sox and Mets.

I fear the Yankees have run out of time.  They are probably one of the six best teams in the AL right now, but they haven’t been for too much of the season to make up for it.

--Posted at 8:03 am by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Stick a Fork in the 2013 Yankees

Losing four of five games to the Padres and White Sox has effectively eliminated the Yankees from any realistic postseason consideration at this point.  The last thing this team could afford was to lose games against the handful of teams they are better than, but that’s exactly what they’ve accomplished.

Date 8/7/2013
Iterations 1000000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/-
Red Sox 95 67 821 711 59.2% 24.2% 9.5% 92.8% 87-103
Rays 93 69 727 642 37.1% 31.7% 15.3% 84.2% 85-102
Orioles 86 76 754 739 3.3% 6.2% 13.3% 22.9% 78-94
Yankees 81 81 662 672 0.4% 0.8% 2.6% 3.9% 73-89
Blue Jays 77 85 761 764 0.0% - 0.3% 0.4% 69-85
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Tigers 98 64 817 647 92.0% 2.6% 2.5% 97.2% 90-106
Indians 88 74 752 710 6.4% 12.6% 22.2% 41.1% 80-96
Royals 83 79 671 653 1.6% 2.0% 6.1% 9.7% 75-91
Twins 71 91 662 765 0.0% - - - 63-79
White Sox 64 98 630 725 0.0% - - -56-72
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Athletics 92 70 715 643 55.5% 9.2% 12.0% 76.7% 84-100
Rangers 91 71 727 672 44.3% 10.6% 15.9% 70.8% 83-99
Angels 76 86 744 728 0.2% - 0.2% 0.4% 68-85
Mariners 73 89 657 735 0.0% - - 0.1% 65-81
Astros 54 108 629 861 0.0% - - -46-63
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Braves 99 63 713 581 99.9% - - 99.9% 91-107
Nationals 79 83 626 632 0.1% 0.2% 2.8% 3.1% 71-87
Mets 74 88 653 708 0.0% - 0.3% 0.3% 66-82
Phillies 73 89 631 723 0.0% - 0.2% 0.2% 65-81
Marlins 63 99 553 673 0.0% - - -55-72
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Cardinals 97 65 767 605 59.0% 29.8% 10.8% 99.6% 89-105
Pirates 94 68 641 592 32.8% 44.5% 21.1% 98.3% 86-102
Reds 90 72 710 620 8.2% 24.7% 55.0% 87.9% 82-98
Cubs 72 90 643 690 0.0% - 0.1% 0.1% 64-80
Brewers 68 94 651 727 0.0% - - -60-76
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Dodgers 89 73 648 616 79.1% 0.3% 2.7% 82.0% 81-97
Diamondbacks 83 79 685 669 19.1% 0.5% 6.4% 26.0% 75-91
Rockies 75 87 720 769 0.6% - 0.2% 0.8% 66-83
Padres 74 88 643 705 0.6% - 0.2% 0.9% 66-82
Giants 74 88 631 672 0.6% - 0.2% 0.8% 66-82

W: Projected final 2013 wins
L: Projected final 2013 losses
RS: Projected final 2013 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2013 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation

At this point, .500 looks like where they’re heading and frankly I wouldn’t be surprised to see them worse than that by the end of the year.  I’m sure they’ll continue to delude themselves into thinking they are contenders and will make more stupid and desperate moves depending on what shows up on the waiver wire, but it doesn’t matter.  They are done.

--Posted at 3:03 am by SG / 23 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, August 3, 2013

Yankees.com: CC’s struggles continue in loss to Padres

SAN DIEGO—As CC Sabathia attempts to navigate what is now officially the worst stretch of his career, he has routinely acknowledged that his outings have been “embarrassing” and that he needs to start helping the Yankees win games.

That has proven to be easier said than done for the veteran left-hander, who endured another unimpressive outing on Friday night. Sabathia allowed five runs in 5 2/3 innings as the Padres defeated the Yankees, 7-2, in the series opener at Petco Park.

“I feel like it has to turn, it’s going to turn, but it’s just not at that point yet,” Sabathia said. “But I’ll keep working, keep working in the bullpen, and this thing will turn around for me.”

Sabathia has now allowed five or more runs for the fourth straight game, the first time in his career that he has done so. Over that span of three losses and a no-decision, opponents have battered Sabathia for a 10.07 ERA and a .398 batting average.

At this point it’s hard to see CC finishing up the year at anything close to his established levels, and that makes the Yankees’ already small odds of qualifying for the postseason just about miniscule.  I’d like to point to something in his peripherals that indicates some poor fortune that will correct at some point, but it’s tough.

Since May 20, Sabathia has made 14 starts.  He’s got an RA of 6.28 and opposing batters have hit .284/.329/.488 against him.  He’s got a component ERA of around 5, and a FIP of 4.5.  His BABIP against of .320 is a bit high, but I see no evidence it’s going to come down with the way he’s pitching now.

The runway is getting shorter.  The Yankees have to make up 4 games with 58 games left to play just to get to the second wild card.  Their odds of qualifying for the postseason are now probably in the 6% range as of this morning.

I think they’re done.

--Posted at 8:42 am by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, July 31, 2013

This Team is Buying?  Really?

My Monte Carlo postseason odds updated as of this morning.

Date 7/31/2013
Iterations 1,000,000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/-
Rays 94 68 741 641 47.4% 29.0% 10.9% 87.2% 86-102
Red Sox 94 68 813 714 44.7% 28.6% 11.7% 85.0% 85-102
Orioles 86 76 754 734 6.0% 12.2% 17.4% 35.6% 78-94
Yankees 82 80 677 676 1.0% 2.5% 5.5% 9.0% 74-90
Blue Jays 76 86 764 763 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.8% 68-84
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Tigers 94 68 819 667 78.2% 4.0% 7.1% 89.3% 86-102
Indians 88 74 763 714 17.7% 12.4% 20.2% 50.2% 80-96
Royals 81 81 666 663 3.2% 1.1% 4.5% 8.8% 73-89
Twins 70 92 667 767 0.1% - 0.1% 0.2% 62-78
White Sox 64 98 641 735 0.0% - - - 56-72
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Athletics 94 68 727 643 80.9% 2.4% 5.5% 88.8% 85-102
Rangers 87 75 725 689 17.5% 6.8% 15.0% 39.4% 79-95
Angels 76 86 744 726 0.5% - 0.6% 1.1% 68-84
Mariners 74 88 652 726 0.2% - 0.2% 0.4% 66-82
Astros 54 108 622 865 0.0% - - - 46-62
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Braves 94 68 702 594 97.0% 0.3% 0.6% 97.9% 86-102
Nationals 80 82 635 630 2.0% 0.5% 6.1% 8.6% 72-88
Phillies 75 87 635 714 0.2% - 0.8% 1.0% 67-83
Mets 75 87 663 714 0.0% - 1.2% 1.2% 67-83
Marlins 62 100 554 688 0.0% - - - 54-70
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Cardinals 94 68 742 611 48.5% 30.7% 16.5% 95.7% 86-102
Pirates 93 69 645 591 37.4% 38.1% 19.1% 94.6% 85-101
Reds 89 73 714 608 13.3% 28.5% 46.2% 88.0% 81-98
Cubs 73 89 647 690 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% 1.0% 65-81
Brewers 69 93 663 731 0.0% - 0.1% 0.1% 61-77
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Dodgers 86 76 657 627 72.2% 0.3% 2.5% 75.0% 78-94
Diamondbacks 82 80 689 672 21.5% 0.7% 3.8% 26.0% 73-90
Rockies 76 86 737 766 3.0% - 0.9% 3.9% 68-84
Padres 74 88 647 709 1.8% - 0.4% 2.1% 66-82
Giants 72 90 636 684 0.7% - - 0.7% 64-80

W: Projected final 2013 wins
L: Projected final 2013 losses
RS: Projected final 2013 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2013 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation

The phrase “lipstick on a pig” comes to mind.

Right now 90 wins looks like the Yankees’ upper-bound for wins within one standard deviation.  The average wins in my simulations for the first wild card in the AL was around 92.6, and the average for the second was about 90.

The Yankees’ postseason odds are now roughly equivalent to those of the Royals.

Keep buying middling outfielders signed for another year after this one though.

--Posted at 9:31 am by SG / 75 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, March 27, 2013

The 2013 MLB Projection Blowout

With Opening Day rapidly approaching, it’s time for my 2013 MLB projected standings blowout.  The idea behind this series of posts is to try and project how the 2013 MLB season might look given what we think we may know right now.  I’ve been doing a version of this since 2005, and you can see the results by looking at the following links.

2005
2006
2007
2008 Pt 1
2008 Pt 2
2009 AL
2009 NL
2010 AL
2010 NL
2011 AL
2011 NL
2012

A quick look at the previous seasons shows that the results are hit and miss.  Projections don’t pretend to be omnisicent, so they can only tell us so much about how things play out.  Hence the following disclaimers.

1) Projection systems are inherently limited in their accuracy, particularly for pitchers. We can get a rough idea of how most players will perform by looking at their past histories and how similar players have performed, and factoring in aging and regression, but abilities/talent can change in ways that can’t be forecasted.

2) Playing time distribution in these simulations will not match actual 2013 playing time. I used the rosters and depth charts available at MLB Depth Charts plus whatever I’ve read over the offseason as my guide to set these up as realistically as possible, but it’s a possible source of error. Rosters were set up to have 35-40 or so active players per team, and to get a reasonable amount of playing time from the bench and extra pitchers, to more closely model reality. Basically, no players are set to play more than 90% of the time, starting catchers are restricted to at most about 75% of the games, and I’ve made sure teams get a non-trivial amount of starts from their 6-8 starters. The healthier a team is in 2013, the more likely they will be to exceed these projections, and vice versa.

3) We cannot predict injuries and/or roster changes. These simulations do try to adjust projected playing time based on past health issues, so someone like Erik Bedard is not expected to make 30 starts. I’ve also included random injuries which may lead to some of the outlying results you see, but there’s no way to account for all the fluctuations that will happen with rosters this season.

4) These are NOT my predictions. These are projections based on running a computer simulation hundreds of thousands of times with projection data that is inherently limited. If your favorite team doesn’t project well, don’t blame me, blame the computers and spreadsheets that projected them. I guess you can blame me for the CAIRO results if you want, otherwise you can take heart in the 2006 Tigers projecting to win 80, the 2010 Giants projecting to go 81-81 or the 2012 Orioles projecting to win 70 games.  These are not meant to tell you how the season is going to play out.  I prefer to think of them more as a starting point for discussion, with a range of something like 10 wins in either direction based on how things actually end up playing out.  You can look at them and argue about why you think some teams will be better or worse.

5) Since this is all automated, I don’t break ties. I simply award all ties a share of either the division title or wild cards when it happens which is why you may see some funny decimal places in the standings that follow.

6) These are the averages of hundreds of thousands of simulated seasons, so the results will tend to regress towards the mean. The final standings will not look like this, because they only play the season once.  If the first place team in a division projects to win 85 games, it doesn’t mean 85 wins will win the division, but I’ll get into that into more detail further down in this post.

7) Even if you knew exactly what every player would do, and exactly how much they’d play, you would not get the standings right.  A few one run games or a disparate performance in more crucial situations can cause any team to over/under achieve what their stats say they should have done.  So if that’s true, you have to figure that since we have no idea what any individual player do or how much they’ll play, the margin of error on these is massive.

There’s too much stuff to fit it all into one post, so I’ve created a separate post for each projection system.  I will use this post to show the results of the aggregate/average of all the projections. You can follow the links below to look at the individual projection systems’ results.

This year, I’m using five different projection systems.  You can click on each of the links below to get some more information about each system and to see how their specific projected standings look.

CAIRO
Marcel
Oliver
Steamer
ZiPS

I should note that the Marcel projections used here were generated using Python code provided by Jeff Sackmann and are not the “official” projections, although they should be almost identical.  I’ll also mention that ZiPS will have its own projected standings so these should not be considered the official version.  Playing time distribution, run environments and park factors may cause some divergence between what ZiPS forecasts and what mine say.  When in doubt, go with the official version.

With all the disclaimers out of the way, on to the projected standings.  These are the combined results for all five projection systems.  The standings are rounded to the nearest win so if the total W-L doesn’t add up to 2430-2430 that’s why.

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/-
Blue Jays 89 73 795 728 29.1% 9.9% 9.6% 48.5% 77-100
Rays 88 74 715 644 27.6% 9.5% 8.8% 45.9% 77-100
Yankees 85 77 774 745 18.6% 7.9% 8.2% 34.7% 73-96
Red Sox 82 80 819 803 15.4% 6.6% 8.2% 30.2% 70-93
Orioles 79 83 738 766 9.3% 4.5% 5.8% 19.6% 68-90
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Tigers 89 73 797 714 46.4% 6.6% 6.8% 59.8% 77-100
Royals 81 81 716 721 19.3% 5.6% 6.5% 31.4% 70-92
Indians 80 82 741 744 18.7% 5.0% 6.2% 29.9% 69-91
White Sox 76 86 718 767 12.4% 4.0% 4.8% 21.2% 65-88
Twins 67 95 693 825 3.2% 0.9% 1.6% 5.6% 56-78
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Angels 91 71 763 656 40.0% 12.3% 9.3% 61.7% 80-103
Rangers 88 74 795 727 30.1% 12.0% 10.0% 52.1% 77-100
Athletics 87 75 731 679 24.6% 12.1% 10.0% 46.6% 75-98
Mariners 73 89 660 722 4.7% 2.9% 3.8% 11.4% 61-84
Astros 60 102 649 866 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 1.6% 49-72
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Nationals 90 72 690 598 44.5% 11.3% 8.3% 64.0% 79-102
Braves 88 74 673 622 32.3% 11.5% 9.7% 53.5% 77-99
Phillies 80 82 665 680 15.1% 7.2% 7.9% 30.1% 69-92
Mets 73 89 645 703 5.3% 3.1% 4.2% 12.6% 61-84
Marlins 69 93 624 731 2.8% 1.9% 2.5% 7.3% 57-80
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Reds 89 73 741 662 41.0% 8.9% 7.9% 57.8% 78-101
Cardinals 85 77 686 655 26.8% 8.8% 7.8% 43.4% 73-96
Brewers 79 83 704 733 13.4% 5.5% 6.5% 25.3% 67-90
Pirates 78 84 665 691 11.6% 4.3% 5.6% 21.5% 66-89
Cubs 74 88 652 705 7.2% 3.3% 4.1% 14.6% 63-85
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Dodgers 87 75 677 618 30.9% 9.4% 8.9% 49.2% 76-99
Giants 87 75 665 613 28.3% 9.1% 9.0% 46.4% 76-98
Diamondbacks 84 78 716 696 22.7% 8.1% 8.0% 38.8% 73-95
Padres 78 84 643 668 11.0% 4.4% 5.4% 20.8% 66-89
Rockies 74 88 775 847 7.2% 3.2% 4.2% 14.6% 63-85

W: Projected final 2013 wins
L: Projected final 2013 losses
RS: Projected final 2013 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2013 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation

As noted earlier, this is NOT saying that you can win the NL West by winning 87 games.  It’s saying that the team that finished in first most frequently in that division averaged 87 wins over hundreds of thousands of seasons.  Here are the average win totals for each spot in each division.

Place ALE ALC ALW NLE NLC NLW
1 94 91 95 94 92 92
2 89 84 89 87 85 87
3 85 79 83 80 81 83
4 81 74 73 73 76 78
5 75 66 60 66 70 71
WC1 91 90
WC2 87 86

Here is how each division broke down in terms of percentages using the aforementioned pie charts.

In the AL East, we’ve got the mostly tightly bunched group of teams in baseball, with just 10 wins separating Toronto at the top and Baltimore at the bottom.  Toronto and Tampa Bay look like they’re neck and neck as of right now.  The Yankees are already ravaged by injuries and at this point it doesn’t seem like it would take a lot for them to end up having a losing season and even finish last.  Should they lose Robinson Cano or CC Sabathia for any significant amount of time that may be exactly what happens.  Boston has improved quite a bit from where they were at the end of last season, although they apparently still have a ways to go.  The projections are expecting a big regression from Baltimore, although they have enough talented young players with upside that they could beat their projections by quite a bit.
     

The AL Central basically looks like Detroit and everyone else.  Kansas City and Cleveland are jockeying behind the Tigers.  It’ll be interesting to see what the Indians get out of Scott Kazmir, who did not have a Steamer projection and projected pretty poorly in all the other systems.  He’s throwing harder than he was when last seen in the majors and could surprise some people.  For the Royals, it looks like Big Game James may not get into many big games this year, although stranger things have happened.  The White Sox are projected to fall off a bit from last season, and the Twins look like they aren’t going to be very good.

There’s a new floormat in the AL West, and it’s the Houston Astros.  Can they lose 100+ games for the third year in a row?  The projections think they can.  Houston projects to be so bad that they have essentially balanced out the league difference between the AL and NL.  Last year, the AL went 1150-1118 thanks to interleague play.  If you add Houston’s 55-107 to that you get a record of 1205-1225.  Los Anaheim looks like the favorite here and project to win more games than any other team in baseball, with Texas a strong second.  The Angels do have some concerns in their rotation, which could open the door for the Rangers.  Oakland projects to fall back a bit from last year, but still should be in contention.  Seattle still doesn’t look particularly good, although they should score some more runs this year, which is something.

The Nationals project as favorites in the NL East, especially now that the restrictions are off Stephen Strasburg.  The Braves aren’t quite at their level, but project to be pretty good as well.  The Phillies appear to be showing their age, and if Roy Halladay doesn’t bounce back they could be in trouble.  The Mets don’t look good to me, especially with Johan Santana looking iffy and the Marlins may be as bad as the Astros.  If Placido Polanco is hitting cleanup to ‘protect’ Giancarlo Stanton, it’s hard to see them winning 60 games.

In the Central, the Reds look like the clear favorite.  The Cardinals were closer before losing Chris Carpenter and Rafael Furcal, but they seem like the second best team in the division.  Pittsburgh and Milwaukee are neck and neck with each other and the Cubs look to be bringing up the rear.

In the West, the Dodgers are spending money like there’s no tomorrow but I’m not so sure they’re spending it all that well.  They project a hair better than San Francisco but given the margin of error inherent in projections there’s really no difference in their projections.  The Diamondbacks had a bizarre offseason and losing Adam Eaton for two months hurts, but they should be in the mix if a few things go their way.  The Padres look a bit better than I expected, although still not good and the Rockies stink.

Usually there’s a surprise team or two in here but this year nothing really stands out.  In general it seems that aside from a handful of really bad teams we’re seeing more parity.  Between that and the second wild card you can pretty much see any team in baseball sneaking into the postseason.  Except the Astros.

And there you have it.  The 2013 projection blowout.  Results are not guaranteed.

On an unrelated note, our sister site, the Replacement Level Red Sox launches today. Check them out at replacementlevelredsox.com.

--Posted at 6:59 am by SG / 45 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, February 13, 2013

CAIRO 2013 v0.4 and Still Slightly Early and Somewhat Useless 2013 Projected MLB Standings

I found some problems with my pitcher WAR calculations so I’ve made an update to CAIRO which is now up to version 0.4.  It can be downloaded at the following link.

cairo_2013_v0.4.zip.
Version v0.5 now available.  cairo_2013_v0.5.zip

Aside from the pitcher WAR fix the only other changes are moving players to new teams.  And for the hell of it, I ran more projected standings reflecting those moves.

Date 2/12/2013
Iterations 100000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Blue Jays 90 72 810 727 29.1% 10.2% 9.6% 48.9%
Rays 88 74 715 645 25.4% 10.2% 9.6% 45.2%
Yankees 87 75 790 739 24.2% 9.6% 9.1% 42.9%
Red Sox 82 80 812 798 15.0% 7.2% 7.8% 30.0%
Orioles 76 86 731 790 6.2% 3.5% 4.7% 14.4%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Tigers 87 75 800 735 40.1% 5.6% 6.9% 52.6%
Indians 81 81 746 735 21.8% 5.1% 6.0% 32.8%
Royals 80 82 723 734 19.2% 4.9% 5.7% 29.7%
White Sox 77 85 730 783 15.1% 3.7% 4.8% 23.6%
Twins 66 96 694 837 3.8% 0.9% 1.7% 6.4%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Angels 91 71 757 652 35.9% 12.0% 9.5% 57.3%
Rangers 89 73 795 722 31.7% 12.5% 9.8% 54.0%
Athletics 87 75 731 675 26.2% 11.5% 9.9% 47.6%
Mariners 73 89 668 724 5.7% 3.0% 4.4% 13.1%
Astros 58 104 647 894 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 1.4%
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Nationals 92 70 707 592 46.7% 10.5% 8.2% 65.4%
Braves 88 74 682 632 28.0% 11.5% 8.8% 48.3%
Phillies 82 80 665 668 17.1% 8.2% 8.3% 33.5%
Mets 73 89 666 721 6.0% 3.4% 4.5% 13.9%
Marlins 66 96 625 759 2.2% 1.2% 2.1% 5.5%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Reds 91 71 746 650 41.9% 9.5% 7.6% 59.0%
Cardinals 86 76 699 660 27.3% 8.6% 8.0% 43.9%
Brewers 78 84 713 751 12.7% 5.2% 5.9% 23.8%
Pirates 78 84 670 691 11.7% 4.9% 6.3% 22.9%
Cubs 73 89 646 707 6.4% 2.8% 3.7% 12.8%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Dodgers 89 73 689 609 32.5% 9.3% 8.7% 50.6%
Giants 88 74 673 606 28.9% 8.5% 9.4% 46.7%
Diamondbacks 84 78 705 684 20.7% 8.1% 8.3% 37.1%
Padres 80 82 663 670 12.9% 5.6% 6.8% 25.3%
Rockies 72 90 776 884 5.0% 2.7% 3.6% 11.3%

W: Projected final 2013 wins
L: Projected final 2013 losses
RS: Projected final 2013 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2013 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

The big mover here is Cleveland, as they’ve gained 7 wins from the last set of projected standings and now look like about a .500 team.  The Yankees stayed where they were, at about 87 wins and third place in the East. 

I probably won’t run more standings until right before the season starts, which will include other projection systems and better rosters and depth charts.  Then they’ll probably be only kind of useless.

--Posted at 6:33 am by SG / 70 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, December 18, 2012

NYDN: Dickey to Jays makes Girardi’s job tougher

Joe Girardi’s job got a little tougher this week — and he knows it.

The Blue Jays continued their busy winter, trading four players to the Mets in exchange for R.A. Dickey, the National League’s reigning Cy Young Award winner.

Dickey joins a rotation that had already bulked up with the additions of Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson, adding them to incumbent starters Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero to form a very deep starting five.

“The Blue Jays have done a lot to improve their team,” Girardi said in an e-mail to the Daily News. “Adding a pitcher like Dickey gives them another quality starter at the top of their rotation. When you look at Toronto’s rotation, it now has a lot of different looks and a lot of experience with Johnson, Buehrle and now Dickey.”

I don’t expect Dickey to repeat his 2012, but CAIRO still likes him a lot in 2013.  As a Jay he projects to put up an ERA of around 3.65 over 211 innings which would be worth somewhere in the area of 4.5 - 5 wins.  Here’s how the AL East now projects adding Dickey to the Jays, Stephen Drew to the Red Sox and a few other tweaks to the other teams’ depth charts.

TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Blue Jays 90 72 805 724 28.2% 10.3% 9.9% 48.4%
Yankees 88 74 790 739 24.4% 10.4% 9.7% 44.5%
Rays 87 75 699 636 23.9% 9.8% 9.2% 42.9%
Red Sox 84 78 815 782 16.6% 7.8% 8.5% 32.9%
Orioles 77 85 729 781 6.8% 4.1% 5.6% 16.6%

The teams are still pretty tightly bunched, but Toronto’s got a bit of a separation from the pack now.  Anyway, projected standings in December don’t really tell us all that much so please Orioles fans don’t kill me.

--Posted at 9:09 am by SG / 36 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, December 12, 2012

How Does Signing Youkilis Impact the AL East?

I re-ran my projected standings with Kevin Youkilis getting 500 PA split among 3B, 1B and DH and here’s how it impacted the AL East projected standings.

Before:

TM  W   Div  WC1   WC2  PS%
Rays 86.0 25.8% 8.4% 10.2% 44.4%
Blue Jays 86.0 25.3% 9.2% 8.2% 42.7%
Yankees 85.0 23.0% 8.6% 7.7% 39.3%
Red Sox 84.0 20.1% 7.7% 8.4% 36.2%
Orioles 73.0 5.8% 3.1% 5.0% 13.9%

After:

TM W Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Blue Jays 86.5 25.3% 9.0% 8.7% 42.9%
Yankees 86.4 25.0% 8.7% 9.2% 42.9%
Rays 86.0 24.6% 8.7% 8.8% 42.1%
Red Sox 82.6 17.9% 6.9% 8.4% 33.2%
Orioles 74.1 7.3% 3.7% 4.8% 15.8%

Difference:

TM W Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Blue Jays 0.5 -0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7%
Yankees 1.4 0.1% 1.5% 3.6% 5.0%
Rays 0.0 0.3% -1.4% -2.3% -3.6%
Red Sox -1.4 -0.8% 0.0% -3.0% -3.0%
Orioles 1.1 0.6% -0.2% 1.9% 1.7%

This includes all the other moves that were made since I ran these as well as some adjustments in playing time so that also affects this, but basically adding Youkilis if he can get 500 PA is worth about a win and a half or so.  Is that worth $12M?  It depends on how much you value a 5% increase in qualifying for the postseason I guess.

--Posted at 8:24 am by SG / 65 Comments | - (0)




Monday, December 10, 2012

CAIRO 2013 v0.2’s Extremely Early and Completely Useless 2013 Projected MLB Standings

Since I was curious about how the big trade between Kansas City and Tampa Bay affected the AL East, I ran some projected standings based on rosters as of last night.  As the title says, this is extremely early and completely useless so think of it more as a goof than anything too serious.  So using CAIRO v0.2 and the depth charts from MLB Depth Charts and Rotochamp as a rough gauge of playing time, here’s how the 2013 MLB season looks as of December 10.

Update: CAIRO v0.5 is now available

Date 12/10/2012
Iterations 100000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Rays 86 76 698 643 25.8% 8.4% 10.2% 44.4%
Blue Jays 86 76 789 741 25.3% 9.2% 8.2% 42.7%
Yankees 85 77 771 738 23.0% 8.6% 7.7% 39.3%
Red Sox 84 78 788 759 20.1% 7.7% 8.4% 36.2%
Orioles 73 89 718 780 5.8% 3.1% 5.0% 13.9%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Tigers 91 71 791 709 46.2% 7.3% 6.0% 59.5%
Royals 84 78 717 701 24.7% 6.4% 8.3% 39.4%
White Sox 80 82 725 755 18.2% 4.4% 6.5% 29.0%
Indians 73 89 692 768 7.3% 2.7% 4.0% 14.0%
Twins 65 97 696 854 3.7% 1.6% 1.6% 6.9%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Angels 95 67 726 616 43.4% 12.8% 9.3% 65.6%
Rangers 88 74 762 699 24.7% 12.1% 10.6% 47.5%
Athletics 88 74 712 653 25.2% 11.0% 8.6% 44.8%
Mariners 74 88 626 692 6.0% 4.3% 5.0% 15.3%
Astros 60 102 651 850 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% 1.8%
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Nationals 94 68 699 590 46.4% 9.9% 8.0% 64.2%
Braves 86 76 686 630 23.8% 11.2% 8.9% 43.9%
Phillies 82 80 666 657 18.0% 7.0% 7.9% 32.9%
Mets 75 87 665 715 8.3% 4.7% 5.3% 18.2%
Marlins 69 93 625 729 3.5% 2.0% 2.9% 8.4%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Reds 91 71 722 635 41.9% 7.9% 7.5% 57.3%
Cardinals 86 76 696 645 28.0% 7.9% 8.7% 44.6%
Brewers 78 84 711 742 12.7% 5.2% 6.5% 24.4%
Pirates 77 85 663 688 11.1% 5.5% 6.6% 23.1%
Cubs 71 91 635 721 6.3% 2.4% 3.5% 12.1%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Dodgers 90 72 677 587 35.0% 9.3% 9.0% 53.4%
Giants 87 75 663 598 27.6% 9.8% 8.2% 45.6%
Diamondbacks 81 81 692 678 15.9% 7.1% 7.1% 30.1%
Padres 81 81 659 654 15.9% 7.7% 7.6% 31.3%
Rockies 71 91 770 865 5.6% 2.4% 2.5% 10.5%

The Astros are going to make it awfully easy for the AL West teams to win the wild cards, aren’t they?

Did I mention that these are extremely early and completely useless?

--Posted at 8:50 am by SG / 60 Comments | - (0)




Monday, October 15, 2012

The Task Ahead

I am trying to assess just how deep of a hole the Yankees are now in so I figured out the win probabilities for the remaining games in the ALCS should it go seven games.  I’ve assumed Game 7 would have CC Sabathia on three days rest.  Here are the pitching matchups and win probabilities for each of the theoretical remaining games.

Date ALCS Det NY Yankee Win Probability
16-Oct Game 3 Justin Verlander Phil Hughes 34.2%
17-Oct Game 4 Max Scherzer CC Sabathia 51.1%
18-Oct Game 5 Doug Fister Andy Pettitte 44.3%
20-Oct Game 6 Anibal Sanchez Hiroki Kuroda 53.1%
21-Oct Game 7 Justin Verlander CC Sabathia 44.9%

In order to win this series, the Yankees have to win four of the five remaining games.  Here are the ways to achieve that with various remaining permutations of the series based on the per game win probability:

Win Games 3/4/5/6: .0411
Win Games 3/4/5/7: .034761
Win Games 3/4/6/7: .041667
Win Games 3/5/6/7: .036122
Win Games 4/5/6/7: .053972
Total: 20.8%

At this point the Yankees’ overall odds of winning this series are around 20.8%.  Should they lose tomorrow that drops to 5.4%.  If by some miracle they win, their chances to win the series jump up pretty significantly.

Win Games 4/5/6: .120204
Win Games 4/5/7: .101641
Win Games 4/6/7: .1213832
Win Games 5/6/7: .10562
Total: 44.9%

Can Phil Hughes beat Justin Verlander?  It’s not very likely, but it could happen.  Hughes has pitched reasonably well against Detroit over the last three seasons (3.56 ERA, 4.02 FIP).  He’s been particularly good in his two starts at Detroit (16 IP, 1 R, 4 BB, 16 K).  On the other side, the Yankees have actually hit reasonably well against Justin Verlander over the same period (3.57 ERA, 3.94 FIP).  That’s not just a DNYS artifact either as he’s pitched against them four times in Comerica Park(27 IP, 30 H, 10 R, 13 BB, 30 K).

The Yankees can win tomorrow’s game.  But not unless their offense does something it hasn’t done so far this series(and most of the postseason) and shows up.

You know Suzyn…

--Posted at 11:11 am by SG / 48 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, October 13, 2012

2012 ALCS Preview - Tigers vs. Yankees

It took the Yankees and Tigers the full five games for both teams to advance past the ALDS, but here they are.  The problem for both teams is that they had to use their aces in the fifth game, which means they can’t start the ALCS with Justin Verlander or CC Sabathia.

The Tigers as presently constituted are better than the 88 win team in the AL Central that they were this year, at least if you believe the projections.  Here’s how their offense projects over a seven game series using Oliver from the Hardball Times.

Order Player Pos PA avg/obp/slg woba Outs BR
1 Austin Jackson CF 31 .279/.343/.421 .335 20 3.9
2 Omar Infante 2B 31 .286/.315/.409 .314 21 3.5
3 Miguel Cabrera 3B 31 .334/.415/.604 .432 19 6.0
4 Prince Fielder 1B 31 .298/.405/.517 .400 19 5.2
5 Delmon Young DH 31 .279/.311/.443 .324 22 3.7
6 Jhonny Peralta SS 31 .263/.320/.413 .320 22 3.6
7 Andy Dirks LF 31 .279/.323/.448 .333 21 3.9
8 Avisail Garcia RF 20 .252/.279/.375 .285 15 1.8
9 Alex Avila C 25 .260/.352/.410 .338 16 3.1
Bench Gerald Laird C 7 .244/.304/.360 .295 5 0.7
Bench Ramon Santiago IF 4 .254/.313/.351 .295 3 0.4
Bench Danny Worth IF 1 .239/.305/.357 .294 1 0.1
Bench Don Kelly UT 0 .242/.296/.376 .295 0 0.0
Bench Quintin Berry OF 8 .239/.312/.320 .287 5 0.8
Bench Brennan Boesch OF 0 .263/.317/.419 .322 0 0.0
Bench Bryan Holaday C 0 .223/.274/.331 .267 0 0.0
Total 282 189 36.6

wOBA: Weighted on base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs

The Tigers obviously have the two best hitters in this series in Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.  The rest of the lineup is not quite as impressive.  They’ve been platooning Alex Avila and Gerald Laird at catcher and Avisail Garcia and Quintin Berry in he OF, so I’ve assumed they’ll continue doing that.  Defense was an issue for them for most of the year, but adding Omar Infante and getting Brennan Boesch out of the lineup seems to have helped them there quite a bit, and with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer striking out everyone it’s probably not going to be a big problem in three of the games at least.

If we give them 27 outs per game they project to score an estimated 36.6 runs over 7 games.

Here’s how their pitching looks.

Player Role IP H R ER HR BB K ERA
Doug Fister SP1 13 13 5 5 1 3 9 3.46
Anibal Sanchez SP2 12 12 6 5 1 4 10 4.09
Justin Verlander SP3 14 11 5 4 1 4 14 2.89
Max Scherzer SP4 6 6 3 3 1 2 6 4.02
Rick Porcello SP5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.56
Jose Valverde CL 4 4 2 2 0 2 3 3.70
Joaquin Benoit SU 4 3 1 1 0 1 5 3.10
Phil Coke SU 2 2 1 1 0 1 2 4.03
Octavio Dotel MR 3 3 1 1 0 1 3 3.35
Al Alburquerque MR 2 2 1 1 0 1 2 4.43
Drew Smyly MR 3 3 2 1 0 1 3 4.30
Darin Downs MR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.55
Luis Marte LR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.31
Brayan Villarreal LR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.72
Total 63 58 27 25 6 18 57 3.58

The Tigers have Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer lined up to pitch the first four games.  In theory that would mean Fister, Sanchez and Verlande would pitch games 5-7, but since those games won’t be played it doesn’t matter.  The rotation is strong, with only Anibal Sanchez projecting worse than any of the starters the Orioles threw at the Yankees and he’s only .03 runs per nine worse than Jason Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen’s projections.  If the Yankees had trouble with Baltimore’s starters, they’re really going to have trouble with Detroit’s.

They’ve had some issues with their closer, who projects worse than Joaquin Benoit and Octavio Dotel so it’ll be interesting to see if Jim Leyland sticks with him if he struggles in his first appearance or two.  Our old friend Phil Coke is their main lefty out of the pen, although Drew Smyly provides depth there as well.  You can futz around with how I assigned the bullpen innings but if you don’t they project to allow 27 runs in this series.

36.6 runs scored and 25 runs allowed equals a team that would win about 63.8% of their games, or 103.3 over a 162 game season.

How does that compare to the Yankees?  Let’s see.  First, the position players.

Order Player Pos PA avg/obp/slg woba Outs BR
1 Derek Jeter SS 31 .299/.353/.405 .337 21 3.8
2 Ichiro Suzuki LF 31 .289/.324/.385 .313 21 3.5
3 Alex Rodriguez 3B 25 .271/.348/.462 .352 17 3.5
4 Robinson Cano 2B 31 .304/.361/.530 .381 20 4.9
5 Mark Teixeira 1B 31 .256/.346/.489 .359 20 4.5
6 Nick Swisher RF 30 .267/.357/.463 .357 20 4.2
7 Curtis Granderson CF 30 .249/.337/.509 .360 20 4.5
8 Raul Ibanez DH 29 .256/.319/.454 .334 20 3.7
9 Russell Martin C 29 .232/.323/.389 .317 20 3.2
Bench Eric Chavez 3B 8 .264/.321/.431 .327 6 1.0
Bench Brett Gardner OF 0 .266/.360/.391 .337 0 0.0
Bench Eduardo Nunez IF 3 .254/.294/.346 .283 2 0.3
Bench Chris Stewart C 0 .230/.289/.318 .272 0 0.0
Bench Jayson Nix IF 3 .216/.273/.356 .276 2 0.3
Bench Chris Dickerson OF 0 .252/.332/.384 .319 0 0.0
Bench Andruw Jones OF 0 .232/.327/.456 .340 0 0.0
Total 281 189 37.4

I’m kind of hoping that Alex Rodriguez will be back in the lineup for good but I’ve given some of his PA to Eric Chavez in case.  With Detroit’s rotation all right-handed, the Shockmaster™ should be mostly full-time.  We may see Nun-E and Nixy a few times so I threw them a few PA as well.  With these assumptions they’d project to score a bit less than one run more than the Tigers over seven games.  Of course, they’ll have to hit a lot better than they hit in the ALDS to even sniff that number.

The pitching is a mess.  By blowing Game 4, the Yankees lost the option to start CC in Game 1.  The good news is they have Andy Pettitte fully rested to start Game 1.  Unfortunately, they have no one else from the ALDS rotation who can start on full rest in Game 2.  They could try Hiroki Kuroda on three days rest but he’s never started on three days rest and I don’t think they’ll go that route.  My guess is they’ll use David Phelps with Derek Lowe caddying him in Game 2 and hope for the best, then bring back CC on three days rest to match up against Verlander in Game 3.  That would set him up to pitch in the theoretical Game 7 that won’t happen since Detroit’s going to sweep but let’s let our imaginations run wild. 

So my guess at the rotation is something like: Andy Pettitte, David Phelps, CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, Andy Pettitte, CC Sabathia. 

The order could change.  Pettitte would have four days rest before Game 5 so he could start that one.  I’m more concerned about how the innings get allocated than the order for this so let’s press on.

Player Role IP H R ER HR BB K ERA
Andy Pettitte SP1 12 11 5 5 1 3 10 3.58
Hiroki Kuroda SP2 6 6 3 2 1 1 5 3.67
CC Sabathia SP3 13 12 5 5 1 3 12 3.44
Phil Hughes SP4 5 5 3 2 1 1 4 4.22
David Phelps SP5 5 5 2 2 1 2 4 4.06
Rafael Soriano CL 4 3 2 2 0 1 4 3.41
David Robertson SU 5 4 2 2 0 2 6 3.46
Boone Logan SU 3 3 1 1 0 1 3 3.99
Joba Chamberlain MR 3 3 1 1 0 1 3 4.14
Clay Rapada MR 2 2 1 1 0 1 2 3.62
Derek Lowe MR 5 6 3 3 0 2 3 4.64
Cody Eppley MR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.15
Freddy Garcia LR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.74
Ivan Nova LR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.60
Total 63 60 28 26 7 20 56 3.76

Because of the mess that is the rotation I gave Derek Lowe more innings than I’d typically give a long reliever and the worst projected pitcher on the staff.  It shouldn’t make a huge difference on the bottom line though.

Based on this playing time the Yankees figure to allow around 28 runs, which makes them a roughly 62.7%/101.6 win team.

Detroit has a slight edge at .638 vs. .621.  Having home field advantage gives the Yankees about a .006 boost, so you’ve got something like a .633 team playing a .624 team.  Given that, here’s what my playoff simulator says for this series.

Yankees: 49.7%
Tigers: 50.3%

The Tigers are slight favorites, but it’s basically a tossup.  It’d be nice for the Yankees to avenge the last two times Detroit knocked them out of the playoffs, but I’m not betting on that happening.

--Posted at 8:45 am by SG / 24 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, October 11, 2012

2012 MLB Division Series Odds through Games of October 10

Team Div
NYA 81.3%
STL 76.8%
DET 64.1%
SFN 54.0%
CIN 46.0%
OAK 35.9%
WAS 23.2%
BAL 18.7%

Div: Probability of winning divisional series

--Posted at 8:09 am by SG / 73 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, October 10, 2012

2012 MLB Division Series Odds through Games of October 9

Team Div
DET 86.0%
CIN 75.8%
NYA 64.0%
STL 52.7%
WAS 47.2%
BAL 35.9%
SFN 24.1%
OAK 13.9%

Div: Probability of winning divisional series

 

--Posted at 8:33 am by SG / 33 Comments | - (0)




Monday, October 8, 2012

2012 MLB Division Series Odds through Games of October 7

Team Assigned Win % Division %
DET.631 92.6%
CIN.558 87.5%
NYA.635 83.6%
WAS.617 63.8%
STL.568 36.2%
BAL.513 16.4%
SFN.539 12.5%
OAK.529 7.4%

Assigned Win %: Estimate of team strength using Oliver projections and depth charts for remaining games in series
Division %: Projected odds of advancing past the division series

--Posted at 8:13 am by SG / 34 Comments | - (0)




Friday, September 21, 2012

The Postseason Implications of this Series with Oakland

The Yankees’ second half slide really began when they got swept in Oakland in a four game series following a home sweep of Toronto.  Prior to that series, the Yankees had a 10 game lead in the division and were 57-34.  Since the opener of that series on July 19 they’ve gone 29-29 and lost nine games off their division lead.

The A’s and Orioles have 85 wins, and the Yankees have 86.  The other wild card contenders at this point have a pretty hard road ahead of them to catch any of the three.  The Angels are at 81 wins, the Rays are at 80, the Tigers are at 79 and Boston’s at 68.  But it’s certainly not impossible that things could change over the next week.

Here’s how the postseason odds for the AL look as of this morning.

TM W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 93.4 68.6 80.1% 10.3% 6.8% 97.1%
Orioles 91.2 70.8 19.6% 35.8% 33.4% 88.8%
Rays 86.5 75.5 0.2% 1.3% 6.0% 7.5%
Red Sox 73.0 89.0 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 72.3 89.7 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 88.2 73.9 72.2% 0.1% 0.8% 73.0%
Tigers 86.4 75.6 27.6% 0.1% 1.9% 29.6%
Royals 74.4 87.6 0.0% - - -
Twins 66.7 95.3 0.0% - - -
Indians 66.5 95.5 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 96.1 65.9 90.9% 7.4% 1.2% 99.4%
Athletics 91.1 70.9 9.0% 43.0% 38.5% 90.5%
Angels 87.2 74.8 0.0% 1.8% 11.4% 13.2%
Mariners 74.9 87.1 0.0% - - -

W: Projected final 2012 wins
L: Projected final 2012 losses
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)


Here are how they change based on the four possible outcomes of this series.

A’s 3-0 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 89.9 72.1 58.2% 4.3% 22.6% 85.1%
Orioles 89.4 72.6 39.2% 5.8% 38.1% 83.1%
Rays 84.9 77.1 0.6% 0.2% 6.0% 6.8%
Red Sox 71.7 90.3 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 71.1 90.9 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 86.6 75.4 74.2% 0.1% 0.2% 74.5%
Tigers 84.8 77.2 23.8% 0.1% 2.2% 26.1%
Royals 73.1 88.9 0.0% - - -
Twins 65.6 96.4 0.0% - - -
Indians 65.2 96.8 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 94.4 67.6 85.2% 12.8% 0.6% 98.6%
Athletics 91.2 70.8 12.8% 74.8% 16.1% 100.0%
Angels 85.8 76.2 0.0% - 12.5% 12.5%
Mariners 73.4 88.6 0.0% - - -
A’s 2-1 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 92.1 69.9 70.9% 9.0% 14.5% 94.4%
Orioles 90.6 71.4 28.3% 18.9% 40.1% 87.3%
Rays 86.2 75.8 0.0% 0.1% 7.2% 7.4%
Red Sox 72.5 89.5 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 71.8 90.2 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 87.6 74.4 76.1% - - 76.1%
Tigers 85.6 76.4 23.1% - 1.8% 24.9%
Royals 74.0 88.0 0.0% - - -
Twins 66.4 95.6 0.0% - - -
Indians 66.1 95.9 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 95.4 66.6 89.2% 10.0% - 99.1%
Athletics 91.6 70.4 10.0% 61.0% 26.1% 97.1%
Angels 86.7 75.3 0.0% 0.2% 9.9% 10.1%
Mariners 74.2 87.8 0.0% - - -
Yankees 2-1 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 93.7 68.3 84.1% 10.2% 4.8% 99.1%
Orioles 91.1 70.9 15.5% 42.2% 34.7% 92.4%
Rays 86.3 75.7 0.0% 0.2% 4.0% 4.2%
Red Sox 72.8 89.2 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 72.1 89.9 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 87.8 74.2 75.3% 0.1% 0.4% 75.8%
Tigers 86.1 75.9 24.3% 0.1% 0.8% 25.2%
Royals 74.3 87.7 0.0% - - -
Twins 66.4 95.6 0.0% - - -
Indians 66.4 95.6 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 95.8 66.2 95.4% 3.2% 0.6% 99.2%
Athletics 90.7 71.3 4.2% 41.3% 44.0% 89.5%
Angels 87.2 74.8 0.0% 2.2% 10.6% 12.9%
Mariners 74.6 87.4 0.0% - - -
Yankees 3-0 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 94.5 67.5 92.6% 6.6% 0.2% 99.3%
Orioles 91.1 70.9 7.0% 58.8% 24.3% 90.1%
Rays 86.3 75.7 0.0% 1.6% 6.5% 8.1%
Red Sox 72.8 89.2 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 72.1 89.9 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 88.1 73.9 74.9% - 0.2% 75.1%
Tigers 86.5 75.5 24.7% 0.4% 1.5% 26.6%
Royals 74.2 87.8 0.0% - - -
Twins 66.4 95.6 0.0% - - -
Indians 66.3 95.7 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 95.7 66.3 96.2% 2.8% 0.6% 99.6%
Athletics 89.9 72.1 3.2% 26.8% 53.3% 83.4%
Angels 87.1 74.9 0.2% 2.6% 13.4% 16.2%
Mariners 74.6 87.4 0.0% - - -

With Baltimore at Fenway for three games, they have a very good chance at solidifying their postseason odds since they’re guaranteed to gain ground on one of the A’s or Yankees if they can win.  Since Boston is really not even an MLB team at this point I’d be shocked by anything less than sweep.  In fact, if it were possible I’d say the Orioles would pick up four wins in three games against Boston.

But the Yankees can’t worry about that.  They just need to win.  Hopefully they can take two of three.

--Posted at 10:17 am by SG / 17 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, September 11, 2012

The Postseason Implications of this Series with Boston

Now W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 73 89 0.0% - - -
Red Sox 3-0 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 75 87 0.0% - - -
Red Sox 2-1 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 74 88 0.0% - - -
Yankees 2-1 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 73 89 0.0% - - -
Yankees 3-0 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 72 90 0.0% - - -

W: Projected final 2012 wins
L: Projected final 2012 losses
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

 

--Posted at 10:13 am by SG / 11 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, September 6, 2012

The Postseason Implications of this series with Baltimore

I have to admit that I really have no idea how good the 2012 Orioles are.  Much has been made of the fact that they’ve been outscored this season, but that ignores the fact that their current roster is not the same as the roster they had earlier in the year.  Team talent is not static, and any analysis that assumes that what the Orioles have done all season long is the best way to assess how good they are at this very moment is simplistic and lazy. 

That being said, I’m kind of lazy myself and don’t feel like revising and re-running all their projections right now.  But anyone that wants to discuss how good/bad the Orioles really are should at least acknowledge that they’re no longer giving starts to Tommy Hunter, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta, and what they did in the rotation in the first half of the year should have little bearing on how good the Orioles will be over the rest of the season.  The fact is, they’re right in the heart of the postseason race and anything can happen from here on out.  They very well could win the World Series if everything falls into place for them.

I also am fairly uncertain about how good the Yankees are right now.  I’m reasonably sure they’re not the 94 win team they projected to be at the start of the year when they had Mo and Brett Gardner and Michael Pineda, and that they probably won’t be that good through the end of the year given the injuries they’ve been dealing with and the apparent loss of Curtis Granderson and Andruw Jones’s ability to hit a baseball.  Jones should be less of a concern than Granderson, but Joe Girardi’s stubborn insistence on playing him against every LHP the Yankees face makes him a lot more important to this team than he ought to be.  Especially when teams are champing at the bit to throw every LHP they can find against the Yankees, which is logical. 

We also don’t know if/when they’ll get Mark Teixeira, Ivan Nova and Andy Pettitte back and what they’ll do if/when they do come back.  All three have the potential to significantly improve this team, but all three have a very realistic chance of not being able to return and be effective.  I don’t think that’s pessimistic, I just think it’s realistic.  If the Yankees can get all three back, they improve the lineup and the rotation and the bullpen and start to look like one of the better teams in baseball, if not the best, again.

Rather than using projections and YTD performance for this run through the postseason implications of this series, I’m going to just assume that the Yankees and Orioles are roughly .500 teams.  So consider this more theoretical than the typical postseason odds I run.

In that case, here’s how the postseason probabilites for the AL look as of this morning. 

TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 90 72 782 677 45.0% 13.6% 15.5% 74.1%
Rays 89 73 694 603 29.2% 12.9% 18.0% 60.2%
Orioles 89 73 699 737 25.8% 12.5% 14.8% 53.0%
Red Sox 75 87 781 775 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 73 89 732 783 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 88 74 754 703 61.7% 1.8% 4.2% 67.6%
Tigers 87 75 742 692 38.3% 2.3% 6.9% 47.5%
Royals 73 89 681 745 0.0% - - -
Indians 68 94 668 827 0.0% - - -
Twins 68 94 720 835 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 96 66 834 698 94.8% 3.8% 0.6% 99.2%
Athletics 89 73 691 631 3.6% 37.6% 21.6% 62.8%
Angels 87 75 772 699 1.7% 15.4% 18.6% 35.7%
Mariners 78 84 632 651 0.0% - - -

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

And here’s how they look for each of the possible outcomes of this series.

Orioles 4-0 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Orioles 90 72 699 737 55.6% 11.6% 12.6% 79.8%
Rays 88 74 694 603 27.8% 11.6% 16.3% 55.7%
Yankees 88 74 782 677 15.8% 14.7% 19.1% 49.6%
Red Sox 74 88 781 775 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 73 89 732 783 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 88 74 754 703 64.0% 2.0% 3.6% 69.5%
Tigers 86 76 742 692 35.3% 3.0% 5.4% 43.7%
Royals 73 89 681 745 0.0% - - -
Indians 68 94 668 827 0.0% - - -
Twins 67 95 720 835 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 95 67 834 698 93.9% 4.4% 0.9% 99.2%
Athletics 88 74 691 631 3.9% 35.3% 22.3% 61.6%
Angels 87 75 772 699 1.4% 16.6% 19.2% 37.1%
Mariners 77 85 632 651 0.0% - - -
Orioles 3-1 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Orioles 89 73 699 737 39.0% 14.6% 15.7% 69.3%
Yankees 89 73 782 677 30.2% 15.7% 16.5% 62.5%
Rays 89 73 694 603 30.6% 13.4% 15.9% 59.9%
Red Sox 75 87 781 775 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 73 89 732 783 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 88 74 754 703 64.1% 2.3% 4.2% 70.5%
Tigers 87 75 742 692 35.7% 2.6% 4.9% 43.2%
Royals 73 89 681 745 0.0% - - -
Indians 68 94 668 827 0.0% - - -
Twins 67 95 720 835 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 96 66 834 698 94.5% 3.9% 1.3% 99.6%
Athletics 89 73 691 631 4.1% 33.1% 23.3% 60.5%
Angels 87 75 772 699 1.3% 14.3% 18.1% 33.7%
Mariners 78 84 632 651 0.0% - - -
2-2 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 90 72 782 677 47.3% 13.7% 13.6% 74.6%
Rays 89 73 694 603 30.1% 12.7% 16.1% 58.8%
Orioles 89 73 699 737 22.6% 11.3% 20.9% 54.8%
Red Sox 75 87 781 775 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 73 89 732 783 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 89 73 754 703 60.9% 2.6% 4.0% 67.5%
Tigers 87 75 742 692 39.1% 2.4% 5.9% 47.4%
Royals 73 89 681 745 0.0% - - -
Indians 68 94 668 827 0.0% - - -
Twins 68 94 720 835 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 96 66 834 698 94.7% 4.4% 0.2% 99.3%
Athletics 89 73 691 631 4.2% 35.6% 21.5% 61.3%
Angels 87 75 772 699 1.2% 17.2% 18.0% 36.4%
Mariners 78 84 632 651 0.0% - - -
Yankees 3-1 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 91 71 782 677 67.5% 10.5% 8.7% 86.7%
Rays 89 73 694 603 22.8% 16.8% 17.7% 57.3%
Orioles 88 74 699 737 9.7% 11.3% 18.5% 39.4%
Red Sox 75 87 781 775 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 73 89 732 783 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 88 74 754 703 63.4% 2.0% 2.8% 68.2%
Tigers 87 75 742 692 36.6% 3.0% 5.5% 45.1%
Royals 73 89 681 745 0.0% - - -
Indians 68 94 668 827 0.0% - - -
Twins 68 94 720 835 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 96 66 834 698 94.2% 4.2% 0.9% 99.2%
Athletics 89 73 691 631 4.3% 36.5% 24.5% 65.3%
Angels 87 75 772 699 1.6% 15.8% 21.5% 38.8%
Mariners 78 84 632 651 0.0% - - -
Yankees 4-0 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 92 70 782 677 79.6% 10.5% 6.1% 96.3%
Rays 89 73 694 603 17.9% 22.0% 23.6% 63.5%
Orioles 86 76 699 737 2.3% 8.5% 13.6% 24.4%
Red Sox 75 87 781 775 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 73 89 732 783 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 88 74 754 703 61.1% 3.0% 4.0% 68.1%
Tigers 87 75 742 692 38.7% 3.1% 6.5% 48.3%
Royals 73 89 681 745 0.0% - - -
Indians 68 94 668 827 0.0% - - -
Twins 67 95 720 835 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 96 66 834 698 95.2% 3.7% 0.9% 99.7%
Athletics 89 73 691 631 3.6% 35.1% 24.5% 63.2%
Angels 87 75 772 699 1.1% 13.8% 20.7% 35.6%
Mariners 78 84 632 651 0.0% - - -

Remember that I’m assuming the Yankees are Orioles are .500 teams.  If you think that’s too pessimistic for the Yankees and too optimistic for the Orioles adjust accordingly.

The Yankees, Orioles, Rays, White Sox, Tigers, A’s and Angels are all bunched within four games of each other, so it’s likely going to be a dogfight to qualify for the postseason.  Hopefully the Yankees are better than a .500 team and can pull away from the pack a bit. 

Getting back to Yanks vs. O’s, your pitching matchups for the series are:

Thursday, September 6, 2012
David Phelps, RHP (3-4, 3.13 ERA) vs. Jason Hammel, RHP (8-6, 3.54 ERA)

Phelps hasn’t been great over his last couple of starts, including his last start against Baltimore where he walked 6 in 4.2 innings.  Hammel was the Orioles’ best starter through June 22 with a 2.61 ERA, but he lost effectiveness over his last four starts, probably at least partially due to a knee injury that ended up requiring surgery that put him on the DL on July 13.  He’s making his first start since returning from the DL and may be rusty.  Let’s hope so.

Friday, September 7, 2012
Phil Hughes, RHP (13-12, 4.18 ERA) vs. Wei-Yin Chen, LHP (12-8, 3.79 ERA)

Hughes was cruising through his last start against Baltimore through five innings, but the wheels came off in the sixth.  Maybe if he walks Mark Reynolds every time he can keep the Yankees in this game.  Wei-Yin Chen was dominant against the Yankees in his last start, but his bullpen and defense ended up making his final line look less than great in a game the Yankees stole thanks to a J.J. Hardy error.

Saturday, September 8, 2012
CC Sabathia, LHP (13-4, 3.42 ERA) vs. Joe Saunders, LHP (1-1, 4.63 ERA)

Two finesse lefties face off in the third game of this series.  The Yankees really needed a big game from CC in his last start against Tampa, but didn’t get it.  I’d like to think they’ll get it here but CC hasn’t looked like CC this year and while his peripheral stats are pretty similar to what they’ve been throughout his Yankee career, his fastball velocity is still down almost 2 mph and I think it’s having a significant impact on his effectiveness.  Saunders is back from Little League, and has made one crappy start and one pretty good one.  As a lefty, he’s sure to give the Yankees fits.

Sunday, September 9, 2012
Freddy Garcia, RHP (7-6, 5.09 ERA) vs. Zach Britton, LHP (5-1, 4.15 ERA)

Garcia’s got a 7.53 ERA over his last three starts while averaging less than 5 innings per game.  He’s given up 12 runs over those three games.  Zach Britton has a 0.94 ERA over his last four starts, and has struck out 29 hitters in 28.2 innings while going 4-0.  Oh, and he’s a lefty. 

I hate these pitching matchups.  It will be a monumental task for the Yankees to win this series.  I suppose Phelps vs. Hammel might be okay if Phelps rebounds a bit and Hammel is rusty.  I’d be shocked if Hughes outpitched Chen.  CC should be able to beat Saunders, but WTF knows?  And that last game looks like a disaster.

I think we’re looking at a split here at best, and wouldn’t be surprised to see the Orioles taking 3 out of 4.  Even if that happens, that just means the Yankees will be down by a game in the division as they head to Boston for three games while the Orioles get to host Tampa Bay for three.  Unfortunately, this will probably be Boston’s version of the postseason.  Fortunately, Boston’s probably not all that good right now and it may not matter.

I realize we feel like the Yankees should be in the postseason every year given their payroll, but it’s kind of fun to have meaningful games in September, isn’t it?  Living and dying on every pitch for a month is an emotional roller coaster but that’s part of the entertainment factor of baseball, and one we don’t necessarily get enough of as Yankee fans who usually are watching their team set up their postseason rotation over the last few weeks of the year.  It’s like an extended version of the postseason.

It also might be a good reminder that just getting into the postseason is a pretty good accomplishment in and of itself and the season’s not a failure if the Yankees don’t win the World Series.  Despite what Randy Levine will surely say at the end of the year if they don’t.

--Posted at 8:19 am by SG / 35 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, September 1, 2012

NY Times: Giving the Yankees Reason for Pause

A few starts ago, Hiroki Kuroda threw a seven-inning shutout in a rain-shortened victory over the Toronto Blue Jays. The win, on July 18, increased the Yankees’ lead in the American League East to a whopping 10 games. The margin has been slashed to two, in part, by a rash of injuries and inconsistent performances.

If the Orioles had not caught the Yankees’ distracted attention, they surely did after a 6-1 win at Yankee Stadium on Friday night. It was the Orioles who acted like a first-place team with years of playoff experience.

OK, this isn’t funny anymore.

Date 7/18/2012
TM W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 98 64 86.5% 6.6% 3.1% 96.2%
Rays 86 76 8.4% 21.1% 18.1% 47.6%
Red Sox 83 79 3.2% 8.0% 10.8% 22.0%
Orioles 79 83 1.4% 2.8% 5.6% 9.8%
Blue Jays 77 85 0.5% 1.8% 3.4% 5.6%
Date 9/1/2012
TM W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 93 69 77.9% 6.9% 6.2% 91.0%
Rays 87 75 13.7% 12.3% 22.4% 48.4%
Orioles 86 76 8.4% 10.4% 18.2% 37.1%
Red Sox 76 86 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 75 87 0.0% - - -
--Posted at 6:18 am by SG / 9 Comments | - (0)




Friday, August 31, 2012

NJ.com: Carig: Yankees face Orioles in crucial series with first place in sight for Baltimore

However, sometimes numbers fail to project reality, and the status quo is rendered meaningless. Which is why as the Orioles arrive today for a three-game series, the Yankees find themselves faced with an unsettling reality.

Their lead in the American League East — which once stood at a seemingly insurmountable 10 games — has been whittled down to just three.

Inconceivable as it may have seemed just a month ago, an Orioles sweep this weekend would give them a share of first place with the Yankees, who have spent the last several weeks leaking oil.

The Orioles are really pissing Pythagoras off.  The Yankees can help soothe him by winning two or three of the games in this series.  Your pitching match ups for this series:

Friday, August 31
Miguel Gonzalez, RHP (5-3, 3.66 ERA) vs. Hiroki Kuroda, RHP (12-9, 2.98 ERA)

Saturday, September 1
Wei-Yin Chen, LHP (12-7, 3.78 ERA) vs. Freddy Garcia, RHP (7-5, 4.90 ERA)

Sunday, September 2
To Be Announced Chris Tillman, RHP (7-2, 3.26 ERA) vs. David Phelps, RHP (3-4, 2.96 ERA)

Not digging that Saturday match up much, and to be announced is never an easy pitcher to face so tonight’s game seems pretty freaking important.  Plus winning tonight would guarantee that the Yankees would still be in first place on Monday, and that would be cool.

Update The postseason odds implications of this series are below.

Now W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 93 69 794 674 87.5% 5.5% 4.2% 97.1%
Rays 88 74 695 607 9.4% 23.5% 27.1% 60.0%
Orioles 86 76 689 754 3.1% 6.8% 14.0% 24.0%
Red Sox 77 85 801 760 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 74 88 745 777 0.0% - - -
Orioles 3 - 0 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 91 71 794 674 70.5% 10.6% 7.4% 88.4%
Rays 88 74 695 607 15.6% 16.4% 21.5% 53.4%
Orioles 88 74 689 754 13.9% 13.8% 21.7% 49.3%
Red Sox 77 85 801 760 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 74 88 745 777 0.0% - - -
Orioles 2 -1 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 92 70 794 674 81.7% 8.4% 4.5% 94.6%
Rays 88 74 695 607 12.8% 18.4% 24.8% 55.9%
Orioles 87 75 689 754 5.5% 11.9% 18.6% 36.0%
Red Sox 77 85 801 760 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0%
Blue Jays 74 88 745 777 0.0% - - -
Yankees 2-1 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 93 69 794 674 88.4% 5.6% 3.0% 96.9%
Rays 88 74 695 607 10.4% 22.7% 27.5% 60.6%
Orioles 86 76 689 754 1.2% 7.8% 14.2% 23.3%
Red Sox 77 85 801 760 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 74 88 745 777 0.0% - - -
Yankees 3-0 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 94 68 794 674 92.9% 4.4% 2.0% 99.3%
Rays 88 74 695 607 6.2% 24.1% 29.8% 60.1%
Orioles 85 77 689 754 0.8% 5.9% 12.1% 18.9%
Red Sox 77 85 801 760 0.0% - 0.1% 0.1%
Blue Jays 74 88 745 777 0.0% - - -

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

--Posted at 9:58 am by SG / 28 Comments | - (0)




Friday, August 17, 2012

NYDN: Boston Red Sox visit Yankees with improbable dream to earn AL wild card spot

Boston is teetering on falling out of contention, despite winning in Baltimore Thursday night, 6-3. Players have complained to ownership about manager Bobby Valentine on more than one occasion. Owners have held a clandestine meeting with players, and Valentine wasn’t invited. And subsequent to this, all public sentiment has been supportive of the manager. It’s perplexing and reeks of dysfunction. A Yankees sweep could be the wreck on the hiighway.

The Sox say they still believe they will get hot, even though they’ve lost a lot more than they’ve won since the July 26 secret meetings (there also was one between ownership and Valentine). Their reality is it has to happen soon. The teams that lead for the AL wild cards are on pace to win approximately 87 games; the Sox could get there by winning about two out of every three to finish.

Here’s how I have MLB’s postseason odds looking as of this morning.

TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 95 67 814 678 87.6% 8.0% 1.4% 97.0%
Rays 87 75 695 623 9.8% 31.6% 21.4% 62.8%
Orioles 82 80 690 765 1.7% 7.7% 11.3% 20.6%
Red Sox 80 82 804 741 0.6% 3.0% 5.7% 9.3%
Blue Jays 75 87 765 780 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.7%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 90 72 751 699 66.2% 6.8% 8.5% 81.5%
Tigers 87 75 760 722 33.5% 13.8% 14.3% 61.6%
Indians 73 89 712 813 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Royals 71 91 679 749 0.0% - - -
Twins 69 93 727 836 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 94 68 816 711 86.5% 5.1% 2.8% 94.3%
Angels 84 78 750 691 6.3% 11.5% 18.9% 36.7%
Athletics 84 78 667 657 6.7% 11.9% 14.4% 33.0%
Mariners 76 86 648 674 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9%
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Nationals 98 64 709 601 75.0% 19.8% 5.1% 99.8%
Braves 94 68 747 643 24.8% 49.7% 15.8% 90.3%
Mets 77 85 700 748 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.8%
Phillies 75 87 673 692 0.0% - - -
Marlins 71 91 630 712 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Reds 96 66 703 614 78.6% 7.6% 7.6% 93.8%
Cardinals 90 72 774 653 14.6% 14.2% 35.3% 64.1%
Pirates 87 75 676 684 6.5% 6.8% 24.2% 37.5%
Brewers 76 86 730 730 0.0% - 0.5% 0.5%
Cubs 65 97 616 731 0.0% - - -
Astros 55 107 610 800 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Giants 87 75 683 652 50.1% 0.7% 3.5% 54.3%
Dodgers 86 76 647 632 36.2% 0.7% 4.3% 41.2%
Diamondbacks 83 79 717 681 13.5% 0.2% 2.8% 16.4%
Padres 70 92 618 695 0.0% - - -
Rockies 65 97 766 871 0.0% - - -

Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

The Yankees can’t eliminate Boston with a sweep this weekend, but they can make it almost impossible for them to win the AL East.  If the Yankees sweep Boston and then go 21-20 over the rest of the season, Boston would have to go 36-7 just to tie them.  If the Yankees went 14-27 they’d end up at the 87 wins that the wild card leaders are on target for and Boston would still have to go 29-14 to tie them.

Here are the pitching matchups for this series.

Friday, August 17
Franklin Morales vs. Phil Hughes

Saturday, August 18
Jon Lester vs. David Phelps

Sunday, August 19
Josh Beckett vs. Hiroki Kuroda

Since seemingly turning the corner with his start on May 6, Phil Hughes has had the occasional bad start.  However, until his last two turns in the rotation he’s been able to rebound in the following game.  On May 28 he gave up 7 runs in 5.1 innings in Anaheim and followed that up with a complete game four-hitter where allowed just one run in Detroit.  He gave up six runs at home against Atlanta on June 28 and followed that up with 8 shutout innings vs. Cleveland.  Since May 6, Hughes hadn’t allowed more than three runs in any two consecutive starts until his last two.

But now that he’s had back-to-back poor starts I have to admit my faith in him is shaken.  Tonight’s game would be a nice way to redeem some of that faith, but I’m not betting on him.

I like the other two match ups a bit better.  I’ll be pretty disappointed if the Yankees don’t take at least two of these three games.

 

--Posted at 8:31 am by SG / 45 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, August 1, 2012

How Have the Last Five Days Changed the Yankees Division-winning Odds?

Date W L RS RA Div
26-Jul 96 66 801 671 93.0%
31-Jul 94 68 804 681 87.1%
--Posted at 8:59 am by SG / 12 Comments | - (0)




Friday, July 27, 2012

The Postseason Implications of this series with Boston

We’re down to a mere 12 remaining games against Boston this year, with three of those slated for this weekend in the first road series at DNYS for Boston.  How we’ve gotten to four days from August with Boston making their first trip to the Bronx I don’t really understand, but here we are.  So we’ll pick this up from the the last time I ran these.

Anyway, the Yankees had a chance at really hurting Boston’s somewhat slim division title chances over this past week as the Red Sox have lost 5 of their last seven.  If that sounds familiar, it should because it’s exactly what the Yankees did over the same time period.  So no ground gained, which is annoying, but better than the alternative.

The Yankees can’t eliminate Boston this weekend, but they can make it pretty close to impossible for the Red Sox to catch them.  Here’s how the AL East’s postseason odds stand as of this morning.  The overall odds for all the teams are actually a bit lower than this but I removed the variance from the simulations to focus on the impact of the series, so keep that in mind.

TM W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 95.1 66.9 93.0% 3.5% 2.0% 98.5%
Rays 82.2 79.8 2.0% 8.5% 13.7% 24.2%
Red Sox 81.3 80.7 2.0% 5.8% 10.3% 18.1%
Blue Jays 80.3 81.8 2.0% 4.0% 5.3% 11.3%
Orioles 77.3 84.7 0.0% 1.5% 1.0% 2.5%

Here’s how those change based the possible outcomes of this three game set.

Red Sox 3-0 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 93.1 68.9 94.5% 1.5% 1.0% 97.0%
Red Sox 82.6 79.4 1.5% 10.8% 17.7% 30.0%
Rays 81.2 80.8 0.5% 6.8% 14.2% 21.5%
Blue Jays 79.3 82.7 1.5% 6.8% 4.7% 13.0%
Orioles 76.3 85.7 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0%
Red Sox 2-1 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 95.3 66.7 96.0% 1.0% 0.5% 97.5%
Rays 83.0 79.1 0.0% 9.0% 11.5% 20.5%
Red Sox 82.7 79.3 1.0% 6.8% 14.5% 22.3%
Blue Jays 80.2 81.8 2.0% 1.3% 5.5% 8.8%
Orioles 79.0 83.0 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 4.5%
Yankees 2 -1 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 95.8 66.2 99.0% 0.0% 1.0% 100.0%
Rays 82.2 79.8 0.0% 6.3% 15.2% 21.5%
Red Sox 81.2 80.8 0.0% 3.5% 8.3% 11.8%
Blue Jays 80.0 82.0 0.0% 2.0% 6.8% 8.8%
Orioles 77.5 84.5 0.0% 0.5% 4.0% 4.5%
Yankees 3 -0 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 97.3 64.8 99.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Rays 83.1 78.9 1.0% 10.8% 17.3% 29.1%
Red Sox 81.1 80.9 0.0% 4.5% 7.8% 12.3%
Blue Jays 80.1 81.9 0.0% 2.5% 7.5% 10.0%
Orioles 78.1 83.9 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0%

Like I said, once you return variability to the simulations the Yankees odds of making the postseason in the last two scenarios isn’t really 100.0%.  But it’s pretty damn high.

Your pitching matchups for the weekend are:

Friday, July 27, 7:05 PM ET
Aaron Cook vs. Phil Hughes

Saturday, July 28, 4:05 PM ET
Jon Lester vs. CC Sabathia

Sunday, July 29, 8:05 PM ET
Felix Doubront vs. Hiroki Kuroda

Those seem like pretty favorable matchups for the Yankees overall.  Aaron Cook’s been pretty effective despite racking up strikeouts with the frequency of a Yankee hit with RISP, and every Hughes start in DNYS has the potential for setting a record for HRs allowed by a pitcher, so that game seems like the one with the highest variablity.  I think the Yankees can probably split the next two games at the very least, so tonight’s game is the key I think.

Missing Alex Rodriguez for this series stinks, but at least Boston is still missing David Ortiz.  I’d lay 50/50 odds that Eric Chavez will be healthy by the end of this series, assuming Jayson Nix gets the starts on Saturday and Sunday with lefties going.

I really, really, really would love a sweep, because with the way the Yankees played on the West Coast they owe it to us.  But taking two out of three would also suffice.

--Posted at 8:36 am by SG / 31 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, July 17, 2012

CBS NY: Yankees’ Gardner Suffers Third Setback; CC Set To Return

NEW YORK (WFAN/AP) — CC Sabathia found the whole experience of his first trip to the disabled list with the Yankees a little “embarrassing,” and he is looking forward to making his first start in more than two weeks.

Brett Gardner might have to wait even longer to return from an elbow injury.

Sabathia will make his first start since June 24 on Tuesday night against Toronto. Out with a groin strain, he says he’s feeling well enough to pitch as long as he needs to and thinks the time off might have been more beneficial to his left arm than the groin.
...
Gardner was sore a day after he had four at-bats in a three-inning simulated game and was being kept off the field Monday. The speedy outfielder has already had two setbacks in his recovery from a strained elbow that has sidelined him since April 18.

At this point, Gardner may do the unthinkable and break Damaso Marte’s record for setbacks in a season.  Are we comfortable with a platoon of Andruw Jones/Raul Ibanez and DeWayne Wise on defense for the rest of the year?  Jones has a .339 wOBA vs. RHP this year and Ibanez has a .338 wOBA vs. LHP.  The average AL LF has a wOBA of .331, so assuming that Jones and Ibanez can keep up what they’ve done the Yankees would be slightly better than average on offense although they probably give away some of that on defense.  They can use Wise in spots where defense can be leveraged more optimally I guess.

It seems like a seller’s market right now with so many teams still having a reasonable chance at the second wild card, so I don’t know who’s available and what the price will be.  Here are how I have each teams’ odds of qualifying for the postseason as of this morning.

TM PS%
Yankees 93.2%
Rangers 92.2%
Nationals 83.0%
Reds 78.7%
Braves 71.5%
Giants 61.8%
White Sox 60.7%
Angels 59.3%
Cardinals 58.8%
Pirates 46.6%
Tigers 45.8%
Red Sox 43.2%
Dodgers 32.9%
Rays 32.0%
Indians 27.9%
Diamondbacks 25.0%
Mets 20.2%
Athletics 19.2%
Blue Jays 17.4%
Brewers 11.5%
Orioles 6.3%
Marlins 4.6%
Phillies 4.1%
Royals 1.8%
Rockies 1.0%
Mariners 0.8%
Twins 0.3%
Cubs 0.3%
Padres 0.3%
Astros -

I’d probably say any team under 20% should be a seller, but they may feel differently.  So who may be available from those teams, and what would they cost?

--Posted at 8:24 am by SG / 31 Comments | - (0)




Friday, July 6, 2012

The Postseason Implications of this series with Boston

The second half of the Yankees’ 2012 MLB schedule gets kicked off with four excruciating games against Boston.  As I’ve mentioned before, 16 of the Yankees final 81 games are against Boston, which means there’s a fair amount of potential volatility in both teams’ chances of taking the division and/or one of the wild cards.  The Yankees have built up a healthy 7.5 game lead on Boston, but the gap between them according to their Pythagorean records is only 1.5 games (the Yankees are at 47-34 and Boston’s at 46-36).  That doesn’t matter for the games that have been played so far, but it should be part of the consideration when thinking about what both teams will do going forward.

This chart shows the postseason probabilities for the AL East as of this morning, as well as with the four potential outcomes of this four game set.  I’ve removed the uncertainty from the simulation since we’re focusing more on the deltas based on the series outcomes, which is why the odds of this morning differ slightly from yesterday’s post.  Adding in the uncertainty should reduce the top teams’ chances slightly and increase the lower teams’ chances slightly to account for things we can’t necessarily predict.

Now W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 95 67 803 682 87.9% 5.6% 3.4% 96.8%
Red Sox 85 77 821 724 7.5% 15.3% 21.7% 44.5%
Rays 84 78 718 676 2.8% 11.1% 18.5% 32.4%
Blue Jays 81 81 793 771 1.5% 3.9% 10.8% 16.2%
Orioles 78 84 700 782 0.3% 0.8% 3.6% 4.7%
Red Sox Sweep W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 93 69 803 682 77.3% 10.7% 8.0% 96.0%
Red Sox 87 75 821 724 16.7% 20.4% 23.1% 60.2%
Rays 84 78 718 676 4.3% 10.4% 15.0% 29.6%
Blue Jays 81 81 793 771 1.4% 3.5% 7.8% 12.6%
Orioles 78 84 700 782 0.4% 1.2% 3.5% 5.0%
Red Sox 3-1 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 94 68 803 682 83.1% 7.3% 5.1% 95.5%
Red Sox 86 76 821 724 11.6% 17.2% 23.3% 52.1%
Rays 84 78 718 676 3.4% 11.8% 17.6% 32.8%
Blue Jays 81 81 793 771 1.5% 3.8% 9.2% 14.4%
Orioles 78 84 700 782 0.4% 1.1% 4.2% 5.7%
Split W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 95 67 803 682 88.4% 4.5% 4.0% 96.9%
Red Sox 85 77 821 724 6.6% 16.4% 22.6% 45.6%
Rays 84 78 718 676 3.6% 12.5% 19.1% 35.3%
Blue Jays 81 81 793 771 1.4% 4.7% 9.5% 15.6%
Orioles 78 84 700 782 0.1% 1.7% 3.3% 5.0%
Yankees 3-1 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 96 66 803 682 93.0% 3.2% 2.1% 98.3%
Red Sox 84 78 821 724 2.8% 14.9% 20.0% 37.7%
Rays 84 78 718 676 2.5% 11.9% 19.5% 33.9%
Blue Jays 81 81 793 771 1.3% 5.8% 9.2% 16.3%
Orioles 79 83 700 782 0.3% 1.3% 4.5% 6.1%
Yankees Sweep W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 97 65 803 682 95.4% 2.7% 0.9% 99.0%
Rays 84 78 718 676 2.2% 15.9% 19.8% 37.8%
Red Sox 83 79 821 724 1.4% 11.0% 17.1% 29.4%
Blue Jays 81 81 793 771 1.0% 4.3% 11.5% 16.8%
Orioles 78 84 700 782 0.1% 2.0% 3.7% 5.8%

Even a Red Sox sweep still leaves the Yankees as clear favorites in the AL East, although it reduces their odds by over 10%.  If the Yankees and Red Sox are equally good, it’s tough to see Boston making up what would still be a four game deficit over 76 games.  But a Red Sox sweep would stink.

Red Sox 3-1 knocks the Yankees’ division title chances down by about 5%.

The most likely scenario, a split of the four games improves the Yankees’ odds slightly, because the runway for Boston gets a little shorter.

Yankees 3-1 increases their odds by about 6%, and a Yankee sweep pushes them up by about 8%.

Boston’s still missing Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz and will be without Dustin Pedroia who’s heading to the DL, which means they’re not at full strength for this series.  Of course, the Yankees are missing arguably their two best starters in CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, as well as Brett Gardner so they’re not exactly at full strength either.  Here are the pitching matchups.

Friday, July 6, 7:10 PM ET
Hiroki Kuroda vs. Josh Beckett

Saturday, July 7, 12:35 PM ET
Phil Hughes vs. Franklin Morales

Saturday, July 7, 7:15 PM ET
Freddy Garcia vs. Felix Doubront

Sunday, July 8, 8:05 PM ET
Ivan Nova vs. Jon Lester

Friday’s game seems like the key one to me.  Hiroki Kuroda’s been pitching pretty well of late, but the offense he’s faced haven’t exactly been juggernauts.  The Yankees have been a bit better vs. RHP(.258/.336/.457) than LHP(264/.330/.447) this year, plus it’d be nice to see them smack Josh Beckett around after the way he stifled them last year (4-0 in 5 starts, 34 IP, 10 BB, 5 HBP, 38 K, 1.85 ERA).  Seriously, the horse’s ass had 5 HBP in 34 innings vs. the Yankees and 4 HBP in 159 innings vs. everyone else.

I really don’t like the pitching matchups on Saturday.  Sunday seems like a tossup.  I think Nova can pitch pretty well, but I don’t know how the Yankees will do against Lester.

I’d be happy with a split I think.

--Posted at 8:00 am by SG / 31 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, July 5, 2012

MLB 2012 Postseason Odds through July 4

At the rough midpoint of the season, here’s how I have the postseason odds using an amalgam of the average pre-season projection odds with what teams have done so far, adjusted for roster changes and injuries.

Date 7/5/2012
Iterations 100000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 95 67 803 682 68.8% 12.2% 8.9% 89.9%
Red Sox 85 77 821 724 14.8% 12.9% 15.9% 43.5%
Rays 84 78 721 677 8.0% 16.0% 14.3% 38.3%
Blue Jays 82 80 792 767 5.9% 8.7% 11.5% 26.1%
Orioles 79 83 698 777 2.4% 4.7% 7.8% 14.9%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 86 76 745 719 49.1% 3.2% 5.3% 57.6%
Indians 82 80 750 768 23.2% 3.2% 4.5% 30.9%
Tigers 81 81 749 732 22.2% 2.8% 5.3% 30.4%
Royals 74 88 682 748 4.1% 0.8% 0.5% 5.4%
Twins 69 93 706 836 1.5% 0.1% 0.2% 1.7%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 96 66 831 698 77.9% 9.6% 4.7% 92.1%
Angels 88 74 725 650 19.8% 22.2% 15.3% 57.3%
Athletics 78 84 659 679 2.2% 3.6% 5.3% 11.0%
Mariners 70 92 658 716 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.9%
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Nationals 93 69 684 611 65.1% 9.5% 5.8% 80.3%
Braves 86 76 726 681 18.1% 13.6% 12.9% 44.5%
Mets 83 79 714 725 13.4% 8.8% 9.0% 31.2%
Phillies 77 85 697 679 1.6% 2.9% 3.9% 8.4%
Marlins 76 86 675 720 1.8% 1.4% 3.5% 6.7%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Reds 90 72 699 638 44.1% 13.2% 11.6% 69.0%
Cardinals 89 73 770 680 32.6% 16.9% 13.5% 63.1%
Pirates 86 76 656 681 17.6% 15.7% 12.6% 45.8%
Brewers 80 82 718 710 5.7% 5.0% 7.9% 18.6%
Cubs 66 96 627 744 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Astros 64 98 632 772 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Giants 87 75 656 639 47.1% 4.1% 6.3% 57.5%
Dodgers 85 77 634 643 34.7% 5.7% 6.1% 46.5%
Diamondbacks 81 81 703 690 17.0% 3.0% 6.5% 26.5%
Rockies 69 93 774 828 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.8%
Padres 68 94 613 699 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 1.0%

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

You generally don’t want to make too much of a single game, but the Yankees taking yesterday’s game over the Rays was worth about a 2.5% swing in both teams’ odds of winning the East.  The Yankees have the second-highest probability of qualifying for the postseason after Texas, as well as the second-highest probability of winning their division, again after Texas. 

But they still stink.

I’ll do a post later today or early tomorrow about the implications of the upcoming series with Boston.  The Yankees play Boston in 16 of their final 81 games, which is going to be torture.

--Posted at 8:48 am by SG / 88 Comments | - (0)




Monday, June 4, 2012

2012 MLB Projected Standings and Postseason Odds through June 3

It’s been a while since I last ran these, so here’s how things look as of this morning.  Team projections are based about 2/3 on their average pre-season projection from here and 1/3 on YTD performance in component runs scored and allowed, with some adjustments for roster changes and injuries.

Date 6/4/2012
Iterations 1000000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Yankees 90 72 811 705 35.5% 16.8% 13.6% 65.9% -4.6 -25 -7
Rays 89 73 740 667 30.4% 18.0% 14.1% 62.5% 0.0 -25 -16
Red Sox 86 76 836 750 21.2% 15.1% 14.2% 50.4% -4.1 7 16
Blue Jays 82 80 776 755 9.1% 8.5% 10.9% 28.5% 0.4 2 -20
Orioles 78 84 711 782 3.8% 4.6% 6.9% 15.3% 7.9 -1 -37
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
White Sox 85 77 731 735 43.4% 4.1% 5.5% 53.0% 9.0 24 -37
Indians 81 81 749 763 24.3% 3.6% 5.4% 33.3% -0.9 -18 11
Tigers 81 81 756 738 23.5% 3.1% 5.1% 31.7% -4.7 -28 2
Royals 74 88 685 747 7.6% 1.0% 2.1% 10.6% -0.5 -20 -18
Twins 66 96 701 837 1.3% 0.1% 0.3% 1.7% -5.6 -29 15
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 97 65 840 690 80.3% 6.5% 4.0% 90.8% 5.7 33 -12
Angels 85 77 700 639 16.8% 15.2% 12.6% 44.7% -5.0 -42 -22
Mariners 74 88 680 721 1.9% 2.4% 3.8% 8.1% -0.2 -2 -20
Athletics 71 91 645 713 1.0% 0.8% 1.6% 3.5% -5.0 -62 -43
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Nationals 88 74 659 614 29.3% 12.0% 10.8% 52.1% 3.8 -24 -42
Braves 87 75 730 681 25.0% 11.2% 10.7% 47.0% -0.6 16 15
Marlins 85 77 689 667 19.8% 10.2% 10.3% 40.3% 1.6 -18 -14
Phillies 85 77 693 640 18.4% 10.4% 10.5% 39.3% -4.2 -5 11
Mets 80 82 694 747 7.6% 5.2% 6.8% 19.6% 6.5 11 -6
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Reds 91 71 701 643 50.0% 11.7% 8.1% 69.8% 3.8 -14 -17
Cardinals 89 73 758 676 35.7% 13.0% 9.7% 58.4% 2.0 27 -2
Brewers 80 82 701 699 8.3% 4.8% 6.0% 19.1% -4.7 2 34
Pirates 77 85 611 693 4.9% 2.9% 4.3% 12.0% 5.3 -57 -59
Astros 69 93 630 745 0.8% 0.4% 0.8% 2.0% 5.7 25 -11
Cubs 65 97 630 744 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% -6.1 -26 -6
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Giants 87 75 660 638 39.4% 6.1% 6.4% 51.8% 2.5 -12 -10
Dodgers 87 75 659 659 38.3% 6.2% 6.8% 51.3% 11.6 18 -31
Diamondbacks 80 82 681 683 13.9% 3.5% 4.9% 22.4% -3.7 -12 10
Rockies 77 85 784 782 7.9% 2.2% 3.5% 13.6% -5.5 37 52
Padres 65 97 604 694 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% -10.6 -43 5

W: Projected final 2012 wins
L: Projected final 2012 losses
RS: Projected final 2012 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2012 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: 2012 revised projected wins minus 2012 pre-season projected wins
RS+/-: 2012 revised projected runs scored minus 2012 pre-season projected runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2012 revised projected runs allowed minus 2012 pre-season projected runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

The Yankees have regained their rightful place at the top of the division, although they can lose that tomorrow pretty easily.  They’re projecting to end the year almost five wins worse than they originally projected to, but at least so far no one aside from Texas in the AL looks like they’re likely to be much better.

The biggest surprise for me here is the White Sox, who are nine games ahead of their pre-season projections and now have a greater than 50% chance at their division.  There is little evidence of luck in their component stats, so they haven’t gotten lucky in terms of wins vs. actual performance so far this year.  Whether it will continue is the question, but no one else in their division looks all that great so why not? 

I am getting way too much schadenfreude out of the Phillies now projecting to fourth and Cliff Lee having 0 wins despite a 3.00 ERA.  Good choice Cliff!  THe Nationals now hold a slight edge over the Braves in a pretty balanced division from top to bottom.

The Reds have passed St. Louis in the NL Central, which currently looks like a two team race.  The Cubs and Padres are probably duking it out for worst team in baseball, which should please Twins and Astros fans.

The Dodgers are still the biggest overall gainer vs. pre-season projections although now it appears they’ll be neck and neck with San Francisco for the NL West. 

There are still four months left, so a lot of this can/will change.  So consider it more of a checkpoint than a prediction.

--Posted at 7:29 am by SG / 47 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, May 8, 2012

The Postseason Implications of This Week’s Series with Tampa Bay

The Yankees begin a six game homestand tonight with Tampa Bay.  Tampa Bay is tied for first place with Baltimore, but it’s a pretty safe bet that they’re better than Baltimore and are a bigger threat to the Yankees’ chances at winning the division. 

At the beginning of the season, the Yankees projected about three games better than Tampa Bay (94 wins vs. 91 wins) but the Rays now have a 3.5 game lead and the Yankees are a bit weaker with Michael Pineda on the shelf.  Based on what’s happened so far and playing out the rest of the season according to how the teams project going forward gives me a final AL East standings projection that looks something like this.

TMWLRSRADivWC1WC2PS%W+/-RS+/-RA+/-
Rays917176168244.6%26.0%12.8%83.4%2.1-4-1
Yankees917183371842.8%26.0%13.2%82.0%-3.7-46
Red Sox84788417696.9%9.2%16.6%32.7%-7.11235
Blue Jays82807737554.9%8.3%13.4%26.6%1.20-21
Orioles78847197830.9%2.3%4.8%8.0%8.36-36

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: 2012 revised projected wins minus 2012 pre-season projected wins
RS+/-: 2012 revised projected runs scored minus 2012 pre-season projected runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2012 revised projected runs allowed minus 2012 pre-season projected runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

The pitching matchups for this series are as follows.

Tuesday, May 8: The Undefeated James Shields (5-0, 3.05 ERA) vs. Ivan Nova (3-1, 5.58 ERA)
Wednesday, May 9: Jeff Niemann (2-3, 4.05 ERA) vs. David Phelps (0-1, 3.74 ERA)
Thursday, May 10: David Price (5-1, 2.35 ERA) vs. CC Sabathia (4-0, 4.15 ERA)

So here are how the standings and postseason odds change based on the various potential outcomes of this series.

Rays 3-0WLRSRADivWC1WC2PS%W+/-RS+/-RA+/-
Rays936976168261.0%18.8%8.3%88.1%3.8-4-1
Yankees897383371826.2%28.5%17.0%71.7%-5.3-46
Red Sox83798417695.6%11.7%15.4%32.8%-7.51235
Blue Jays83797737556.2%10.2%15.1%31.5%1.50-21
Orioles78847197831.0%2.8%5.4%9.2%8.36-36
Rays 2-1WLRSRADivWC1WC2PS%W+/-RS+/-RA+/-
Rays927076168251.9%21.4%12.5%85.7%2.7-4-1
Yankees907283371836.4%26.4%14.6%77.4%-4.3-46
Red Sox83798417695.6%10.5%16.7%32.8%-7.41235
Blue Jays83797737555.4%9.6%12.9%27.9%1.40-21
Orioles78847197830.8%2.0%6.5%9.3%8.06-36
Yankees 2-1WLRSRADivWC1WC2PS%W+/-RS+/-RA+/-
Yankees917183371844.7%24.9%13.9%83.5%-3.4-46
Rays917176168240.4%24.5%13.2%78.1%1.8-4-1
Red Sox83798417697.9%9.9%16.1%34.0%-7.21235
Blue Jays82807737555.5%8.4%12.7%26.5%1.20-21
Orioles78847197831.5%3.0%5.7%10.2%8.26-36
Yankees 3-0WLRSRADivWC1WC2PS%W+/-RS+/-RA+/-
Yankees927083371852.1%22.1%11.3%85.5%-2.6-46
Rays907276168233.9%26.6%15.7%76.2%0.8-4-1
Red Sox84788417697.7%11.2%15.1%34.0%-7.11235
Blue Jays82807737555.1%7.6%14.5%27.2%1.20-21
Orioles78847197831.1%2.4%6.4%10.0%8.46-36

Sure, it’s early.  And yes, the Yankees play the Rays enough times over the rest of the season to make up any ground they lose in this series, but this is still a pretty important series.  You might even say it’s the most important series of the season so far.

--Posted at 9:45 am by SG / 23 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, April 22, 2012

How have the first two weeks of the 2012 MLB season changed team projections?

We’re roughly about 10% of the way throught the 2012 regular season, which is a pretty small sample size to make sweeping observations about how good or bad teams are.  That doesn’t mean that what’s happened to this point isn’t important, because it is.  I wanted to see what teams have seen the biggest shifts in their outlooks based on how they projected coming into the year compared what they have done since.

The way I looked at this involves three basic steps.

1) Get 2012 projections.  In this case I’m using the average of the 2012 MLB projection blowout that I ran at the beginning of April.
2) Estimate revised team strength.  For now, this is just a basic weighted average of the team’s projections heading into the year and their Pythagenpat performance to this point.  I’m not making any adjustments for injuries/roster changes/etc., yet,  although as we get deeper into the season I’ll probably do that.
3) Run the rest of the 2012 MLB season through my Monte Carlo simulator and see what happens.  This includes a variable that alters team strength in each iteration to account for things that projections can’t account for.

Here’s what it says.

Date 4/22/2012
Iterations 100000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Yankees 94 68 848 718 49.0% 14.1% 24.0% 87.1% -0.8 12 7
Rays 87 75 764 695 23.9% 15.0% 34.6% 73.5% -2.0 -1 12
Red Sox 83 79 828 765 13.9% 11.2% 28.1% 53.1% -7.6 -2 32
Blue Jays 81 81 780 775 11.6% 7.8% 21.4% 40.9% -0.5 6 0
Orioles 70 92 712 812 1.6% 1.9% 6.2% 9.7% 0.1 -1 -6
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Tigers 88 74 780 730 46.6% 6.1% 17.7% 70.4% 2.9 -4 -6
Indians 86 76 779 758 33.4% 8.2% 22.3% 63.9% 3.6 12 7
White Sox 78 84 706 755 11.2% 4.4% 12.9% 28.5% 1.6 -1 -18
Royals 70 92 697 771 4.5% 0.8% 5.6% 10.9% -4.8 -8 6
Twins 70 92 720 824 4.2% 0.9% 3.7% 8.8% -1.6 -11 3
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 99 63 822 679 78.2% 7.4% 8.0% 93.6% 8.4 15 -24
Angels 85 77 738 667 17.0% 16.4% 28.9% 62.3% -5.1 -3 6
Mariners 73 89 672 734 2.8% 3.2% 7.8% 13.8% -1.5 -10 -7
Athletics 72 90 687 739 2.0% 2.8% 9.0% 13.8% -4.1 -20 -17
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Braves 90 72 734 664 32.5% 11.3% 23.7% 67.5% 2.3 20 -2
Phillies 88 74 677 611 25.9% 12.4% 21.6% 59.9% -1.4 -21 -17
Nationals 88 74 674 639 27.5% 10.4% 24.4% 62.3% 3.8 -8 -17
Marlins 82 80 699 672 11.3% 8.4% 18.2% 37.9% -1.8 -8 -9
Mets 74 88 677 749 2.8% 3.0% 8.5% 14.3% 0.2 -6 -3
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Cardinals 94 68 740 662 53.9% 10.5% 16.8% 81.1% 7.2 9 -17
Brewers 86 76 700 677 21.2% 9.5% 19.0% 49.7% 1.2 1 13
Reds 84 78 699 665 18.7% 9.6% 21.5% 49.7% -2.9 -16 5
Pirates 73 89 639 726 3.3% 1.8% 6.2% 11.3% 1.5 -29 -26
Cubs 68 94 652 757 1.8% 1.6% 2.8% 6.2% -3.2 -4 7
Astros 66 96 607 747 1.2% 0.3% 1.2% 2.7% 1.9 3 -8
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Giants 85 77 672 649 29.6% 5.3% 14.9% 49.8% 0.6 0 2
Dodgers 83 79 649 674 22.7% 5.3% 11.1% 39.1% 8.1 8 -17
Diamondbacks 83 79 687 677 22.8% 4.3% 14.1% 41.2% -1.3 -6 3
Rockies 81 81 751 744 20.1% 4.9% 12.6% 37.6% -1.2 3 13
Padres 72 90 638 690 4.8% 1.4% 5.1% 11.3% -3.5 -9 2

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: 2012 revised projected wins minus 2012 pre-season projected wins
RS+/-: 2012 revised projected runs scored minus 2012 pre-season projected runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2012 revised projected runs allowed minus 2012 pre-season projected runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Good thing for Cliff Lee he signed with the young upstart Phillies instead of the old decrepit Yankees.  And remember how the Rangers and Angels looked to be neck and neck heading into the year?  Yeah.  The Dodgers seem to have snuck their way into the division race now, but other than that the division standings look pretty similar to how they did entering the season.

And here’s a chart that shows the changes in revised team wins projections for each team.

TM W+/-
Rangers 8.4
Dodgers 8.1
Cardinals 7.2
Nationals 3.8
Indians 3.6
Tigers 2.9
Braves 2.3
Astros 1.9
White Sox 1.6
Pirates 1.5
Brewers 1.2
Giants 0.6
Mets 0.2
Orioles 0.1
Blue Jays -0.5
Yankees -0.8
Rockies -1.2
Diamondbacks -1.3
Phillies -1.4
Mariners -1.5
Twins -1.6
Marlins -1.8
Rays -2.0
Reds -2.9
Cubs -3.2
Padres -3.5
Athletics -4.1
Royals -4.8
Angels -5.1
Red Sox -7.6

The Rangers have been destroying the competition and look like they’re probably the best team in baseball.  The Dodgers and Cardinals are the biggest positive surprises in the National League so far.  The Angels are the biggest disappointment in the AL.

But the Red Sox have to be the most pleasant surprise in baseball for me.

--Posted at 9:17 am by SG / 62 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, April 3, 2012

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout - Oliver Edition

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL East NYA 94 68 801 683 56.0% 22.7% 7.6% 86.4% 84 - 104
AL East BOS 90 72 798 719 26.6% 27.3% 12.6% 66.5% 80 - 100
AL East TAM 86 76 749 701 11.3% 18.2% 9.3% 38.7% 76 - 96
AL East TOR 83 79 751 733 6.1% 10.0% 9.8% 25.9% 73 - 93
AL East BAL 71 91 684 781 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% 61 - 81
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL Central DET 88 74 760 696 67.2% 1.5% 14.1% 82.7% 78 - 98
AL Central CHA 79 83 695 711 13.0% 2.4% 5.5% 20.9% 69 - 89
AL Central CLE 79 83 753 771 12.9% 1.9% 5.9% 20.7% 69 - 89
AL Central KC 76 86 705 754 4.7% 0.7% 2.4% 7.7% 66 - 86
AL Central MIN 73 89 716 793 2.2% 0.4% 1.4% 3.9% 63 - 83
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL West LAA 88 74 730 668 52.4% 5.7% 14.5% 72.5% 78 - 98
AL West TEX 87 75 762 706 42.3% 7.2% 12.2% 61.8% 77 - 97
AL West SEA 77 85 686 724 3.9% 1.2% 3.7% 8.7% 67 - 87
AL West OAK 74 88 707 767 1.5% 0.7% 1.3% 3.5% 64 - 84
AL WC1 91
AL WC2 88
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL East ATL 89 73 687 625 37.8% 17.0% 10.0% 64.8% 79 - 99
NL East MIA 87 75 677 627 28.3% 13.3% 9.9% 51.5% 77 - 97
NL East PHI 86 76 680 632 21.5% 14.6% 11.2% 47.3% 76 - 96
NL East WAS 84 78 667 646 12.3% 11.6% 9.3% 33.2% 74 - 94
NL East NYN 72 90 654 726 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 1.1% 62 - 82
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL Central CIN 91 71 695 615 63.2% 8.3% 10.4% 81.9% 81 - 101
NL Central STL 86 76 707 666 27.1% 12.3% 10.3% 49.7% 76 - 96
NL Central MIL 81 81 672 672 8.1% 5.8% 6.5% 20.3% 71 - 91
NL Central CHN 73 89 646 716 1.4% 0.3% 1.2% 3.0% 63 - 83
NL Central PIT 70 92 649 748 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 60 - 80
NL Central HOU 66 96 603 729 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 56 - 76
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL West COL 86 76 708 665 44.2% 5.7% 10.7% 60.6% 76 - 96
NL West ARI 83 79 665 649 24.3% 4.6% 8.3% 37.2% 73 - 93
NL West SF 83 79 654 640 25.9% 3.9% 8.0% 37.8% 73 - 93
NL West LAN 75 87 636 683 3.2% 1.5% 2.6% 7.2% 65 - 85
NL West SD 74 88 649 702 2.4% 0.5% 1.4% 4.3% 64 - 84
NL WC1 90
NL WC2 87

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
PS%: Total percentage team qualified for the postseason (DIV + WC1 + WC2)
W 1 Std: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 8:30 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)



The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout - Marcel Edition

Marcel was developed by Tangotiger of The Book fame.

Although it’s considered the most basic projection system, it is generally as good as any other system since added complexity really hasn’t shown to add all that much accuracy over Marcel, and the principles behind it are solid and should be the basis for any good forecasting system.  Marcel tends to regress more heavily towards the mean, so the standings here will be more compressed in the other systems.  Marcel does not factor in minor league performance or performances in other leagues, and does not adjust for park.  Any player who has not played in MLB will project as average.  In Marcel, Tsuyoshi Wada and Yu Darvish have the same projection for example, so keep that in mind as you peruse the standings. 

Here’s how it sees things looking in 2012.

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL East NYA 92 70 800 695 46.3% 21.2% 9.2% 76.7% 82 - 102
AL East BOS 89 73 801 727 26.7% 23.2% 11.1% 61.1% 79 - 99
AL East TAM 88 74 754 681 20.6% 20.9% 12.3% 53.8% 78 - 98
AL East TOR 84 78 753 733 6.5% 11.6% 8.3% 26.3% 74 - 94
AL East BAL 68 94 682 802 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 58 - 78
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL Central DET 84 78 756 723 41.0% 1.5% 9.9% 52.4% 74 - 94
AL Central CLE 83 79 755 738 33.7% 2.0% 8.4% 44.1% 73 - 93
AL Central CHA 79 83 697 714 13.1% 2.0% 5.1% 20.2% 69 - 89
AL Central KC 78 84 708 735 11.0% 1.2% 3.6% 15.7% 68 - 88
AL Central MIN 70 92 711 818 1.3% 0.2% 0.4% 1.8% 60 - 80
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL West LAA 87 75 725 671 44.6% 5.7% 13.0% 63.3% 77 - 97
AL West TEX 87 75 762 703 40.3% 7.1% 11.3% 58.6% 77 - 97
AL West OAK 80 82 710 715 10.9% 2.2% 5.4% 18.5% 70 - 90
AL West SEA 77 85 680 721 4.2% 1.0% 2.6% 7.8% 67 - 87
AL WC1 91
AL WC2 88
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL East PHI 90 72 729 651 47.0% 13.3% 9.9% 70.1% 80 - 100
NL East ATL 88 74 729 668 32.2% 17.5% 11.1% 60.8% 78 - 98
NL East WAS 85 77 710 681 15.6% 14.0% 8.9% 38.5% 75 - 95
NL East MIA 80 82 715 727 4.8% 4.9% 7.1% 16.8% 70 - 90
NL East NYN 74 88 698 759 0.6% 0.9% 1.6% 3.1% 64 - 84
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL Central CIN 89 73 734 664 54.2% 8.5% 9.8% 72.5% 79 - 99
NL Central STL 85 77 749 718 25.9% 9.2% 10.5% 45.6% 75 - 95
NL Central MIL 83 79 714 693 19.1% 9.5% 7.7% 36.3% 73 - 93
NL Central PIT 72 90 687 772 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 1.4% 62 - 82
NL Central CHN 71 91 675 773 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 61 - 81
NL Central HOU 66 96 638 771 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 56 - 76
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL West COL 86 76 746 696 40.9% 6.6% 11.1% 58.6% 76 - 96
NL West ARI 84 78 704 682 26.1% 6.4% 9.3% 41.8% 74 - 94
NL West SF 84 78 688 670 27.5% 6.5% 8.9% 42.9% 74 - 94
NL West LAN 76 86 669 714 3.8% 1.4% 2.0% 7.2% 66 - 86
NL West SD 74 88 679 737 1.7% 0.7% 1.4% 3.8% 64 - 84
NL WC1 90
NL WC2 87

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
PS%: Total percentage team qualified for the postseason (DIV + WC1 + WC2)
W 1 Std: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 8:15 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, February 7, 2012

CAIRO 2012 v0.5 and More Somewhat Useless Projected Standings

I’ve uploaded the latest version of the 2012 MLB CAIRO projections. They can be downloaded here.

The only changes from version 0.4 were moving players who were signed/traded to their new teams.  I think this will probably be the last release until right before Opening Day unless I find any issues.

I figured since I’ve updated again I’d run another set of projected standings so here is what they look like.

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL East NYA 97 65 844 692 54.3% 22.5% 8.0% 84.8%
AL East TAM 92 70 772 660 23.2% 27.4% 14.1% 64.8%
AL East BOS 92 70 862 745 22.1% 27.0% 15.3% 64.4%
AL East TOR 78 84 758 795 0.4% 1.2% 2.6% 4.1%
AL East BAL 70 92 734 847 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL Central DET 88 74 814 741 60.7% 1.6% 12.7% 75.0%
AL Central CLE 84 78 763 729 32.1% 0.8% 9.5% 42.4%
AL Central CHA 74 88 705 805 3.5% 0.2% 1.0% 4.7%
AL Central KC 74 88 687 762 3.3% 0.0% 0.8% 4.1%
AL Central MIN 67 95 720 861 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL West TEX 92 70 812 695 51.2% 8.6% 17.0% 76.8%
AL West LAA 91 71 741 653 47.0% 9.9% 16.6% 73.5%
AL West OAK 76 86 685 735 0.7% 0.6% 1.7% 2.9%
AL West SEA 74 88 673 729 1.2% 0.2% 1.0% 2.4%
AL WC1 94
AL WC2 91
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL East PHI 92 70 701 605 60.8% 12.4% 9.1% 82.2%
NL East WAS 86 76 676 625 18.6% 18.2% 9.1% 45.8%
NL East ATL 85 77 700 676 13.2% 12.5% 11.0% 36.7%
NL East FLA 82 80 708 699 7.3% 8.0% 7.1% 22.3%
NL East NYN 75 87 670 733 0.3% 1.2% 1.8% 3.2%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL Central STL 90 72 737 654 47.8% 12.4% 10.3% 70.5%
NL Central CIN 87 75 715 665 27.3% 11.6% 12.1% 51.0%
NL Central MIL 86 76 696 645 24.6% 12.3% 11.7% 48.6%
NL Central CHN 71 91 650 745 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
NL Central PIT 68 94 649 764 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4%
NL Central HOU 60 102 584 773 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL West SF 85 77 663 630 38.1% 3.1% 8.4% 49.5%
NL West ARI 84 78 659 634 33.5% 3.6% 8.9% 46.1%
NL West COL 81 81 761 759 18.3% 3.0% 6.6% 27.9%
NL West SD 76 86 633 668 5.2% 0.8% 2.2% 8.2%
NL West LAN 75 87 621 669 4.9% 0.7% 1.8% 7.3%
NL WC1 90
NL WC2 88

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card

These look more realistic to me than the last set I ran with Marcel.  Probably a bit high on the Yankees, but since CAIRO was created to make the Yankees look better than they are that stands to reason.

I am a bit surprised that Washington now projects better than Atlanta, even if it’s just a one game edge.  The only other major differences from this and the Marcel version is St. Louis at the top of the NL Central and San Francisco and Arizona above Colorado, both of which make sense to me.

Anyway, it’s still early, this is still not that useful, etc.,

--Posted at 9:58 am by SG / 43 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, January 28, 2012

Still Too Early 2012 MLB Standings Projection

Instead of running these with CAIRO this time I used Marcel, mainly out of curiosity in seeing what an unbiased projection that was not created to make the Yankees look better than they are would say.

It says this.

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL East NYA 92 70 785 682 45.3% 20.3% 10.4% 76.0%
AL East BOS 90 72 830 750 27.9% 26.1% 10.8% 64.8%
AL East TAM 88 74 717 646 23.7% 21.2% 12.2% 57.1%
AL East TOR 81 81 723 727 3.0% 6.9% 6.8% 16.7%
AL East BAL 70 92 694 806 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL Central DET 84 78 747 708 43.0% 2.4% 10.1% 55.4%
AL Central CLE 83 79 722 708 30.6% 2.9% 7.8% 41.3%
AL Central CHA 79 83 686 703 15.2% 1.5% 4.2% 20.9%
AL Central KC 79 83 691 714 10.8% 1.9% 4.1% 16.9%
AL Central MIN 68 94 693 813 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL West LAA 87 75 719 663 43.7% 6.1% 11.4% 61.2%
AL West TEX 87 75 765 707 38.2% 6.9% 13.4% 58.6%
AL West OAK 82 80 682 674 14.9% 3.1% 7.4% 25.3%
AL West SEA 76 86 649 689 3.2% 0.7% 1.6% 5.5%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL East PHI 90 72 689 615 44.8% 16.5% 10.7% 72.0%
NL East ATL 89 73 668 608 38.2% 19.2% 9.9% 67.3%
NL East WAS 83 79 645 634 10.8% 10.3% 8.1% 29.2%
NL East FLA 80 82 682 690 5.7% 5.2% 5.4% 16.3%
NL East NYN 74 88 630 680 0.6% 1.5% 1.2% 3.2%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL Central CIN 89 73 719 647 60.4% 8.4% 10.9% 79.7%
NL Central STL 84 78 708 681 24.6% 10.7% 7.0% 42.2%
NL Central MIL 81 81 678 672 13.1% 6.7% 7.7% 27.5%
NL Central PIT 72 90 657 732 1.6% 0.2% 1.0% 2.8%
NL Central CHN 70 92 668 761 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 1.0%
NL Central HOU 66 96 617 749 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL West COL 85 77 749 711 32.1% 6.4% 10.9% 49.4%
NL West ARI 85 77 685 656 30.8% 7.3% 10.8% 48.9%
NL West SF 85 77 629 606 29.6% 5.4% 11.3% 46.3%
NL West LAN 76 86 618 659 4.1% 1.5% 2.7% 8.2%
NL West SD 75 87 608 653 3.4% 0.6% 2.5% 6.4%

Div: Percent of time team won division
WC 1: Percent of time team won first wild card
WC 2: Percent of time team won second wild card

We still don’t know if there will be a second wild card yet, so you can chop off that column and subtract that percentage from the team’s over playoff percentage. 

Because Marcel regresses more heavily than other projections and because it assumes every one who hasn’t played in MLB projects as league average, you see a tighter spread here than you’ll see in other projected standings.  The standard deviation for team wins in my last CAIRO projections was about 9.  In this version it’s 7.1.  That may be more realistic if you think about how little we really know about how good/bad players and teams are, even though what will actually happen in 2012 will show a much bigger spread more in line with other projected standings.

Here are the average win totals for the placings in each division and for the two wild cards.

Div Place Avg W
AL East 1 96
AL East 2 91
AL East 3 86
AL East 4 80
AL East 5 69
Div Avg W
AL Central 1 89
AL Central 2 83
AL Central 3 79
AL Central 4 75
AL Central 5 67
Div Avg W
AL West 1 92
AL West 2 86
AL West 3 81
AL West 4 74
AL WC 1 91
AL WC2 88
Div Avg W
NL East 1 94
NL East 2 88
NL East 3 83
NL East 4 78
NL East 5 72
Div Avg W
NL Central 1 92
NL Central 2 85
NL Central 3 80
NL Central 4 74
NL Central 5 69
NL Central 6 63
Div Avg W
NL West 1 91
NL West 2 85
NL West 3 81
NL West 4 77
NL West 5 71
NL WC1 89
NL WC2 87

What this shows is that on average a team needed 96 wins to win the AL East, etc.,.

Some obvious things to consider would be:

- the difference between Yu Darvish (and other imports) and a league average pitcher
- prospects who project better than league average
- players who switched to parks that will affect their projections since Marcel does not park-adjust

Despite all that, the ordinal rankings seem reasonable.  The only differences between this and CAIRO in that regard are that I have St. Louis ahead of Cincinnati and the Diamondbacks and Giants ahead of Colorado.

This is current through Francisco Cordero signing with Toronto, and assumes Prince Fielder at 1B and Miguel Cabrera playing a terrible version of 3B for Detroit in 70% of their games, and DHing in 25% of them. 

--Posted at 8:19 am by SG / 25 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Still Way Too Early and Mostly Useless 2012 Projected Standings

I was goofing around with the second wild card thing in my simulator and ran an updated set of still way too early and mostly useless projected standings.  I think I liked the last set better.

The same disclaimers from the last set apply here and you can read them by clicking the link in the previous paragraph, so I’m not going to repeat them.  In summary, ignore these if you don’t like them.

Div Team W L RS RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL East
1 BOS 93.7 68.3 872 733 43.8% 20.85% 12.82% 77.44%
2 NYA 93.0 69.0 859 742 38.9% 19.58% 13.74% 72.24%
3 TAM 88.9 73.1 733 651 17.0% 15.37% 13.38% 45.71%
4 TOR 77.9 84.1 770 798 0.4% 1.13% 3.31% 4.79%
5 BAL 64.8 97.2 717 885 0.0% 0.00% 0.06% 0.06%
AL Central
1 DET 88.9 73.1 785 702 63.2% 1.78% 14.80% 79.74%
2 CLE 85.0 77.0 749 706 30.6% 3.40% 9.19% 43.14%
3 CHA 75.7 86.3 707 789 4.2% 0.15% 1.82% 6.12%
4 KC 73.5 88.5 682 755 1.8% 0.05% 0.64% 2.44%
5 MIN 67.4 94.6 715 850 0.4% 0.00% 0.06% 0.46%
AL West
1 TEX 94.1 67.9 817 680 52.9% 16.77% 14.32% 83.94%
2 LAA 93.3 68.7 746 637 46.2% 18.67% 12.96% 77.83%
3 SEA 76.5 85.5 658 697 0.9% 1.30% 2.57% 4.72%
4 OAK 74.0 88.0 650 713 0.1% 0.95% 0.93% 1.98%
WC1 93.4
WC2 90.4
Div Team W L RS RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL East
1 PHI 92.7 69.3 702 603 64.4% 11.32% 8.43% 84.11%
2 ATL 86.8 75.2 715 671 20.7% 19.83% 10.72% 51.24%
3 WAS 82.4 79.6 674 655 7.3% 9.83% 7.96% 25.07%
4 FLA 81.6 80.4 715 703 6.5% 7.28% 7.39% 21.16%
5 NYN 76.2 85.8 669 717 1.3% 1.54% 2.25% 5.07%
NL Central Team
1 STL 90.3 71.7 743 650 53.1% 11.63% 9.61% 74.36%
2 CIN 86.4 75.6 714 665 25.1% 12.02% 12.56% 49.71%
3 MIL 85.8 76.2 696 660 21.3% 12.96% 8.46% 42.75%
4 CHN 70.5 91.5 652 755 0.4% 0.50% 0.16% 1.01%
5 PIT 69.2 92.9 655 760 0.1% 0.08% 0.11% 0.24%
6 HOU 57.9 104.1 572 779 0.0% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%
NL West Team
1 SF 85.5 76.5 667 627 40.1% 4.83% 11.28% 56.16%
2 ARI 85.4 76.6 668 635 39.6% 4.48% 11.24% 55.36%
3 COL 79.3 82.7 767 784 10.4% 1.62% 4.36% 16.34%
4 SD 76.8 85.2 641 667 5.3% 0.94% 3.87% 10.10%
5 LAN 76.5 85.5 626 666 4.7% 1.13% 2.21% 8.01%
WC1 90.3
WC2 87.7

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card

Nothing would make me happier than Houston winning the second wild card and going all the way.  Maybe then the second wild card thing will die before completely ruining baseball.

--Posted at 10:05 am by SG / 35 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Is it Better for the Yankees that Yu Darvish went to Texas instead of Toronto?

This seemed like a no-brainer to me, but since some people dissented, here’s what CAIRO says about the AL postseason odds depending on whether Yu Darvish wound up in Toronto or on Texas.

Yu-Toronto
Team Div WC PL
Rangers 51.2% 16.2% 67.4%
Yankees 49.3% 18.1% 67.3%
Tigers 58.3% 4.9% 63.1%
Angels 47.3% 14.9% 62.2%
Red Sox 33.1% 19.3% 52.4%
Indians 37.1% 5.8% 43.0%
Rays 14.7% 14.7% 29.3%
Blue Jays 3.0% 3.3% 6.3%
Royals 2.7% 0.5% 3.2%
Mariners 1.1% 1.6% 2.6%
White Sox 1.7% 0.3% 1.9%
Athletics 0.5% 0.6% 1.1%
Twins 0.2% - 0.2%
Orioles 0.0% - -
Yu-Texas
Team Div WC PL
Rangers 56.3% 16.7% 72.9%
Yankees 51.7% 17.4% 69.1%
Tigers 58.4% 4.3% 62.8%
Angels 42.8% 18.5% 61.3%
Red Sox 30.3% 17.9% 48.2%
Indians 38.5% 5.5% 44.0%
Rays 17.3% 16.4% 33.8%
Royals 1.6% 0.4% 2.0%
White Sox 1.5% 0.2% 1.8%
Blue Jays 0.6% 1.1% 1.7%
Mariners 0.7% 0.8% 1.5%
Athletics 0.3% 0.8% 1.1%
Orioles 0.0% - -
Twins 0.0% - -

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC: Percentage of times team won wild card (still using the one wild card playoff format)
PL: Percentage of times team qualified for the postseason (Div + WC)

Update: Corrected percentages

As yfinBrazil noted, the original numbers in this post were incorrect.  The table has been updated.

Now we’re looking at a Yankee playoff percentage of 67.4% if Darvish was on Toronto, at which point they’d have to get past a .566 Texas team, which would have an overall probability of 34.1%.  With Darvish on Texas, you’re looking at 69.1% playoff percentage and then having to beat a .577 Texas team, which has an overall probability of 34.6%.

Which is all just a fancy way of saying it doesn’t matter all that much.

 

 

--Posted at 9:09 am by SG / 44 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, October 4, 2011

In Case You Needed More Reasons To Be Pessimistic About Tonight

I know that batter/pitcher matchups are generally not very informative.  The reason for that is what a player has done in 10-20 PA vs. a specific pitcher/hitter doesn’t tell us more than what he’s done against the hundreds or thousands of other players he’s faced.  But for the heck of it, I ran the two expected starting lineups for tonight’s lines against the opposing starter to see what they looked like.

Player Career PA AVG/OBP/SLG PA Outs BR
Austin Jackson 3 .500/.667/2.000 5 2 2.7
Magglio Ordonez 17 .214/.353/.500 5 3 0.8
Delmon Young 18 .200/.333/.267 5 4 0.4
Miguel Cabrera 14 .214/.214/.357 5 4 0.4
Victor Martinez 34 .259/.412/.444 5 3 0.7
Alex Avila 2 .500/.500/.500 5 2 0.9
Jhonny Peralta 15 .231/.267/.538 4 3 0.5
Wilson Betemit 24 .261/.292/.391 4 3 0.4
Ramon Santiago 4 .250/.250/.250 4 3 0.2
Total 131 .246/.336/.439 42 27 7.0
Derek Jeter 9 .000/.000/.000 5 5 -0.5
Curtis Granderson 5 .400/.400/.400 5 3 0.6
Robinson Cano 11 .455/.455/.545 4 2 0.8
Alex Rodriguez 4 .250/.250/.250 4 3 0.2
Mark Teixeira 11 .100/.182/.100 4 4 -0.1
Nick Swisher 12 .300/.417/.600 4 2 0.8
Jorge Posada 11 .333/.455/.444 4 2 0.7
Russell Martin 6 .250/.500/.250 4 3 0.5
Brett Gardner 10 .111/.200/.111 4 3 0.0
Total 79 .239/.316/.310 38 27 2.9

The first two columns are the career PA and AVG/OBP/SLG vs. A.J. Burnett for Detroit, and vs. Rick Porcello for the Yankees.  PA, Outs and BR(batting runs) are what would happen if every player did exactly what he’s done so far against those pitchers over the course of 27 outs.

Yeah, Detroit would score 7 runs and the Yankees would score 2.9.  That translates to roughly a .846 wpct team playing a .154 wpct team.  Since it’s not likely either goes nine the gap shrinks some.

Again, this doesn’t tell us anything useful. 

Really. 

I swear.

--Posted at 4:24 pm by SG / 28 Comments | - (0)




Friday, September 30, 2011

2011 ALDS Preview: Tigers vs. Yankees

The first obstacle in the quest to end the dreaded curse of The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske is the Detroit Tigers.

Seriously, it has been 694 days, 11 hours, 15 minutes, and 45 seconds since the New York Yankees have won a World Series.  We have suffered long enough, haven’t we?  When will this infernal madness end?

So how big of an obstacle are the Tigers?  Let’s take a look.

First, I’ll acknowledge the obvious fact that the Tigers played in and won the AL Central which is probably the weakest division in the AL.

I’ll then say that it doesn’t matter.  This is a very good team, and it’s not a stretch to envision them representing the AL in the World Series.

If you read the Rays/Rangers preview you can skip the next paragraph.

I don’t particularly find any series previews that focus on what a team did in the preceding full season of much use.  It doesn’t really matter if a team scored 5.2 runs per game and allowed 4.2 runs per game over the preceding six months.  Rosters change, injuries happen, players come and go, talent changes, and player and team performance is often subject to fluctuations that are not predictive.  What I want to know is how many runs will the team and roster as currently configured score and allow.  Because of that, for these previews I’ll be using projections in lieu of 2011 stats.  Despite having my own system in CAIRO, I’m going to use the Hardball Times’s Oliver forecasts since I haven’t had the time to re-run CAIRO for this year.  Oliver is updated weekly during the season and includes 2011 MLEs for players who saw time in the minors. 

The biggest consideration in trying to see how any series may shape up is allocating playing time.  So here are depth charts for the two teams, based on the assumption that each team will make 25 outs at the plate over 5 games and that pitchers will combine for 45 innings.  Since I didn’t have official postseason rosters while writing parts of these, some of it is guesswork and is subject to change.

Here are the Oliver projections for the Tigers’ postseason position players.

Name Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Jackson, Austin CF 21 .263/.315/.374 14 2.24 .303 .311 .300
Kelly, Don 3B 21 .268/.312/.413 14 2.34 .314 .286 .317
Young, Delmon LF 21 .283/.314/.446 14 2.52 .327 .344 .320
Cabrera, Miguel 1B 21 .334/.422/.602 12 4.11 .435 .455 .429
Martinez, Victor C 21 .312/.365/.480 13 3.08 .367 .372 .364
Peralta, Jhonny SS 21 .270/.324/.426 14 2.50 .326 .339 .321
Avila, Alex C 21 .270/.351/.456 14 2.89 .350 .327 .356
Dirks, Andy RF 21 .265/.311/.415 14 2.45 .315 .294 .318
Santiago, Ramon 2B 21 .276/.319/.394 14 2.30 .307 .304 .308
Starter Total 189 .282/.337/.444 125 24.42 .338 .338 .338
Bench Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Betemit, Wilson IF 0 .259/.323/.424 0 0.00 .325 .298 .334
Ordonez, Magglio OF 0 .282/.344/.412 0 0.00 .334 .352 .329
Raburn, Ryan OF 0 .268/.317/.465 0 0.00 .334 .349 .323
Rhymes, Will 2B 0 .272/.326/.361 0 0.00 .303 .283 .307
Inge, Brandon 3B 0 .230/.304/.384 0 0.00 .303 .328 .294
Worth, Danny IF 0 .229/.284/.328 0 0.00 .272 .283 .263
Kelly, Don UT 0 .268/.312/.413 0 0.00 .314 .286 .317
Santos, Omir C 0 .228/.255/.333 0 0.00 .255 .264 .250
Bench Total
Team Total 189 .282/.337/.444 125 24.42 .338 .338 .338

Outs: Outs at the plate (assumes 25 outs per 9 innings, calculated as (1 - OBP) times PA + GDP per PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
vs. L/R: Projected wOBA splits vs. LHP/RHP using regressed platoon splits

Rather than guess about how the Tigers may allocate playing time, I just gave the expected starting lineup all 125 outs. 

The biggest problem here is Miguel Cabrera.  Cabrera’s pretty much the best hitter in the AL.  In fact, only one player has been a better hitter than him over the last three years, and that’s Albert Pujols.  That projected wOBA of .455 vs. LHP is terrifying for Game 1.  The Yankees probably don’t have much room for error facing Verlander, so the Cabrera/Sabathia matchup is probably going to be the one to watch.  You can see by the OBP of the rest of the team that keeping people like Austin Jackson, Don Kelly and Delmon Young off the bases in front of Cabrera is going to be imperative.

The Tigers overall don’t have much of a projected platoon split, so the Yankees’ lack of left-handed pitching shouldn’t be a big deal.

I don’t think any Tigers fans would disagree that the Yankees’ lineup is better.  Their hopes are going to lay on their pitching staff, and that’s not a bad position to be in.

Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Verlander, Justin SP1 14 4.8 3.11 2.89 3.05
Fister, Doug SP2 6 2.6 3.94 3.67 3.49
Scherzer, Max SP3 6 3.1 4.61 4.10 3.98
Porcello, Rick SP4 5 2.7 4.88 4.51 4.35
Penny, Brad SP5 0 0.0 5.43 4.85 4.65
Starter Total 31 13.3 3.85 3.54 3.52
Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Valverde, Jose CL 3 1.3 3.90 3.61 3.72
Benoit, Joaquin SU 3 1.1 3.25 3.01 3.10
Alburquerque, Al SU 2 0.9 4.20 3.89 3.71
Coke, Phil SU 2 1.0 4.40 4.07 3.68
Pauley, David MR 2 1.1 4.76 4.41 4.44
Perry, Ryan MR 1 0.5 4.61 4.27 4.12
Schlereth, Daniel MR 1 0.5 4.85 4.49 4.31
Marte, Luis LR 0 0.0 5.26 4.87 4.97
Below, Duane LR 0 0.0 5.49 5.08 5.33
LR 0 0.0
Reliever Total 14 6.4 4.12 3.81 3.75
Team Total 45 19.7 3.93 3.62 3.59

RA: Runs allowed per 9, calculated as 1.08*ERA
ERA: Earned runs allowed per 9
FIP: Fielding independent pitching

Justin Verlander’s obviously the man here.  He’s been the best pitcher in baseball this year and is a worthy MVP candidate.  He’s backed up by mid-season acquisition Doug Fister, who’s been sublime for the Tigers.  The Tigers are 9-2 in his 11 starts, and he’s pitched 70.1 innings and allowed just 19 runs.  He’s faced 273 batters and walked 5 of them.  Seriously.  He’s probably not quite that good, but he’d project as the second-best starter on the Yankees.

Jim Leyland has said that he will not pitch Verlander on three days rest, so I’m giving Rick Porcello five innings.  I don’t know if things would change if the Tigers go down 2-1.  If they did that, they could throw Fister in Game 5 and not use Porcello in the rotation at all.

The Tigers’ defense has been about average overall, not much different than the Yankees.  So I’m not going to bother with talking about that.

So, how about the Yankees’ projections?

Name Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Jeter, Derek SS 22 .306/.363/.416 14 2.83 .345 .369 .337
Granderson, Curtis CF 22 .259/.342/.496 14 3.24 .358 .314 .374
Cano, Robinson 2B 22 .312/.359/.511 14 3.38 .374 .358 .381
Rodriguez, Alex 3B 18 .289/.367/.527 11 2.89 .382 .389 .380
Teixeira, Mark 1B 22 .265/.357/.498 14 3.29 .369 .380 .364
Swisher, Nick RF 21 .271/.364/.475 13 3.03 .364 .375 .359
Posada, Jorge DH 16 .259/.345/.448 10 2.12 .347 .347 .347
Martin, Russell C 21 .252/.345/.380 14 2.39 .326 .344 .320
Gardner, Brett LF 19 .269/.353/.376 12 2.34 .326 .306 .332
Starter Total 183 .277/.355/.460 118 25.50 .355 .354 .355
Bench Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Montero, Jesus DH 4 .278/.329/.483 3 0.54 .348 .361 .340
Jones, Andruw OF 2 .251/.344/.502 1 0.30 .363 .381 .357
Nunez, Eduardo IF 0 .278/.308/.381 0 0.00 .301 .302 .300
Chavez, Eric 3B 4 .245/.296/.355 3 0.38 .288 .257 .300
Romine, Austin C 0 .246/.289/.364 0 0.00 .287 .300 .283
Dickerson, Chris OF 0 .239/.315/.341 0 0.00 .295 .272 .299
Pena, Ramiro IF 0 .239/.283/.327 0 0.00 .269 .256 .273
Cervelli, Francisco C 0 .263/.314/.365 0 0.00 .298 .310 .293
Bench Total 10 .260/.319/.435 7 1.22 .327 .323 .327
Team Total 193 .276/.353/.458 125 26.72 .353 .352 .354

I’ve relegated Jesus Montero to pinch-hitting status, since DH vs. LHP is effectively a non-position vs. Detroit.  I suppose we may see him pinch-hit for Posada if a one of Phil Coke/Daniel Schlereth is on the mound.  Or he could get a start if Posada doesn’t look so good.  Statistically, Posada’s projection vs. RHP is better than Montero’s so I suppose it’s the logical approach. I’m also not sanguine on A-Rod playing every inning so I’ve given Chavez four PA, and I’m assuming we may see Andruw Jones pinch-hit for TSBG in a late situation vs. a LHP where an XBH would be of additional benefit.

Oliver thinks the Yankees have the best offense in the postseason, and I’d agree with that.  Unfortunately, the Yankees have to pitch too.

Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Sabathia, CC SP1 14 5.8 3.70 3.43 3.28
Nova, Ivan SP2 12 6.4 4.77 4.36 4.33
Garcia, Freddy SP3 5 2.6 4.60 4.36 4.33
Colon, Bartolo SP4 0 0.0 4.82 4.04 3.97
Burnett, A.J. SP5 0 0.0 5.21 4.82 4.49
Hughes, Phil SP6 0 0.0 4.45 4.12 4.17
Betances, Dellin SP7 0 0.0 5.36 4.96 4.83
Brackman, Andrew SP8 0 0.0 6.80 6.30 5.88
Starter Total 31 14.7 4.26 3.94 3.86
Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Rivera, Mariano CL 3 1.0 3.03 2.81 2.89
Robertson, David SU 3 1.2 3.75 3.47 3.05
Soriano, Rafael SU 2 0.8 3.61 3.34 3.64
Logan, Boone SU 2 1.0 4.32 4.00 3.77
Wade, Cory MR 2 1.0 4.38 4.06 4.09
Ayala, Luis MR 2 1.0 4.50 4.17 3.92
Noesi, Hector MR 0 0.0 4.59 4.25 4.03
Proctor, Scott LR 0 0.0 5.78 5.35 5.21
Laffey, Aaron LR 0 0.0 5.56 5.15 4.59
Kontos, George LR 0 0.0 5.38 4.98 5.02
Reliever Total 14 6.0 3.86 3.57 3.48
Team Total 45 20.7 4.14 3.82 3.74

The assumption here is CC on three days rest.  I’m assuming that Burnett and Hughes won’t pitch even though they’re on the roster, but if they do pitch their innings would probably just replace Ayala or Wade’s and it shouldn’t make a big difference.

The Yankees probably have the worst projected rotation in the postseason.  CC’s as good as anyone, but after that there’s some concern about Nova and Garcia.  I do think that projection is a little bearish on Nova since we have evidence that his new slider has made a meaningful improvement that wouldn’t be captured in a projection system.

Nova pre-slider: 226 BF, 9.3% BB/BF, 11.5% K/BF, 5.19 RA, 4.29 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 4.92 xFIP
Nova post-slider: 278 BF, 7.5% BB/BF, 15.1% K/BF, 3.52 RA, 3.44 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 4.03 xFIP

The Yankee bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this year, and although the projections think most of them pitched above their head they’re probably still better than Detroit’s from top to bottom.  So the Yankees should be able to mitigate their slight disadvantage in the rotation by using the relievers aggressively.  I can imagine that any David Robertson/Miguel Cabrera battles are going to be must-see baseball.

These depth charts say this.

Team Gms RS RA wpct p162
DET 5 24.4 19.7 .600 97
NYA 5 26.7 20.7 .620 100

If I play the series out 10,000 times in my Monte Carlo simulator I get these odds.

Yankees: 53.9%
Tigers: 46.1%

If the Tigers do decide to use Verlander in Game 4 and Fister in Game 5 they improve to about a .612 wpct/99 win team.  Basically, those two teams are equivalent.  The Yankees get the slight edge of one extra home game if necessary.  In that case the odds look like this.

Yankees: 51.9%
Tigers: 48.1%

--Posted at 10:58 am by SG / 60 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, September 29, 2011

2011 ALDS Preview: Rays vs. Rangers

Who will be facing the Tigers in the ALCS this year?  Let’s see what the numbers say.

I don’t particularly find any series previews that focus on what a team did in the preceding full season of much use.  It doesn’t really matter if a team scored 5.2 runs per game and allowed 4.2 runs per game over the preceding six months.  Rosters change, injuries happen, players come and go, talent changes, and player and team performance is often subject to fluctuations that are not predictive.  What I want to know is how many runs will the team and roster as currently configured score and allow?

Because of that, for these previews I’ll be using projections in lieu of 2011 stats.  Despite having my own system in CAIRO, I’m going to use the Hardball Times’s Oliver forecasts since I haven’t had the time to re-run CAIRO for this year.  Oliver is updated weekly during the season and includes 2011 MLEs for players who saw time in the minors.

The biggest consideration in trying to see how any series may shape up is allocating playing time.  So here are depth charts for the two teams, based on the assumption that each team will make 25 outs at the plate over 5 games.  Since we don’t have finalized postseason rosters, these are guess-timates and are subject to change.

Name Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA
Jennings, Desmond LF 21 .266/.334/.415 14 2.66 .328
Upton, B.J. CF 21 .235/.328/.402 14 2.57 .323
Longoria, Evan 3B 21 .268/.365/.510 13 3.30 .376
Zobrist, Ben 2B 21 .261/.358/.437 13 2.87 .349
Damon, Johnny DH 21 .272/.343/.430 14 2.76 .339
Joyce, Matt RF 21 .263/.349/.463 14 2.94 .352
Kotchman, Casey 1B 20 .271/.335/.395 13 2.29 .324
Jaso, John C 15 .247/.329/.357 10 1.53 .309
Rodriguez, Sean SS 18 .237/.315/.402 12 2.04 .314
Starter Total 179 .259/.340/.426 118 22.96 .336
Bench Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA
Ruggiano, Justin OF 0 .250/.301/.395 0 0.00 .304
Shoppach, Kelly C 3 .208/.303/.379 2 0.30 .302
Johnson, Elliot IF 0 .247/.286/.384 0 0.00 .286
Fuld, Sam OF 2 .250/.322/.357 1 0.21 .304
Guyer, Brandon OF 0 .281/.325/.444 0 0.00 .330
Canzler, Russ IF 0 .263/.328/.450 0 0.00 .337
Lobaton, Jose C 0 .241/.316/.365 0 0.00 .303
Brignac, Reid SS 5 .235/.276/.336 4 0.39 .269
Bench Total 10 .230/.293/.352 7 0.91 .286
Team Total 189 .257/.338/.422 125 23.86 .334

Name Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA
Kinsler, Ian 2B 20 .262/.342/.458 13 2.78 .346
Andrus, Elvis SS 20 .271/.322/.344 14 1.99 .296
Hamilton, Josh LF 20 .313/.358/.544 13 3.30 .383
Cruz, Nelson RF 20 .282/.334/.543 13 3.15 .370
Young, Michael DH 20 .312/.356/.471 13 2.82 .358
Beltre, Adrian 3B 20 .295/.333/.513 13 2.93 .360
Napoli, Mike C 20 .286/.362/.559 13 3.34 .390
Moreland, Mitch 1B 20 .274/.334/.444 13 2.55 .337
Chavez, Endy CF 17 .282/.312/.392 12 1.80 .304
Starter Total 177 .287/.340/.477 117 24.65 .350
Bench Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA
Murphy, David OF 4 .279/.334/.428 3 0.50 .333
Martin, Leonys OF 2 .265/.313/.374 1 0.21 .302
Gentry, Craig OF 2 .265/.322/.360 1 0.21 .303
German, Esteban IF 1 .271/.343/.366 1 0.12 .318
Torrealba, Yorvit C 3 .271/.320/.385 2 0.32 .310
Blanco, Andres C 0 .263/.295/.362 0 0.00 .285
Treanor, Matt C 0 .223/.307/.321 0 0.00 .284
Bench Total 12 .272/.326/.392 8 1.36 .316
Team Total 189 .286/.339/.471 125 26.01 .348

Outs: Outs at the plate (assumes 25 outs per 9 innings, calculated as (1 - OBP) times PA + GDP per PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
vs. L/R: Projected wOBA splits vs. LHP/RHP using regressed platoon splits

These tables just show the primary lineup and potential bench players, with a PA estimate.  That PA estimate is used to calculate how outs the players will make and how many runs they will provide (BR).  PA are added to get the team to 125 outs for a five game series, and then we have an estimate for how many runs the team would project to score.

We can do the same thing with the pitching staffs, allocating 45 innings to see how many runs they’d project to give up. 

Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Niemann, Jeff SP1 6 2.7 4.11 3.95 4.11
Shields, James SP2 7 3.1 4.03 3.70 3.68
Price, David SP3 7 3.0 3.84 3.41 3.50
Hellickson, Jeremy SP4 6 2.6 3.85 3.55 3.97
Davis, Wade SP5 2 1.0 4.61 4.34 4.51
Moore, Matt SP6 2 1.0 4.57 4.23 4.10
SP7 0 0.0
SP8 0 0.0
Starter Total 30 13.5 4.04 3.73 3.87
Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Farnsworth, Kyle CL 3 1.2 3.53 3.27 3.23
Peralta, Joel SU 3 1.1 3.35 3.10 3.50
Cruz, Juan SU 2 1.1 4.75 4.40 4.40
McGee, Jake SU 2 1.0 4.56 4.22 4.03
Gomes, Brandon MR 2 0.9 4.21 3.90 3.71
Ramos, Cesar MR 2 1.2 5.18 4.80 4.43
Howell, J.P. MR 1 0.5 4.64 4.30 4.08
De La Rosa, Dane LR 0 0.0 5.03 4.66 4.40
Sonnanstine, Andy LR 0 0.0 5.43 5.03 4.88
0.0
Reliever Total 15 7.0 4.18 3.87 3.83
Team Total 45 20.4 4.09 3.78 3.85
Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Wilson, C.J. SP1 14 5.7 3.67 3.33 3.27
Holland, Derek SP2 11 5.5 4.51 4.24 4.26
Harrison, Matt SP3 6 2.8 4.25 3.97 4.04
Lewis, Colby SP4 1 0.4 3.82 3.51 3.74
Ogando, Alexi SP5 2 0.8 3.77 3.35 3.44
Feldman, Scott SP6 0 0.0 4.82 4.40 4.47
Hamburger, Mark SP7 0 0.0 5.17 4.79 4.97
SP8 0 0.0
Starter Total 34 15.3 4.06 3.74 3.75
Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Feliz, Neftali CL 3 1.2 3.51 3.25 3.27
Adams, Mike SU 2 0.7 3.06 2.83 2.95
Uehara, Koji SU 2 0.7 3.07 2.84 2.98
Gonzalez, Michael SU 1 0.5 4.36 4.04 4.00
Oliver, Darren MR 2 0.8 3.42 3.17 3.12
Lowe, Mark MR 1 0.5 4.45 4.12 4.01
Tateyama, Yoshinori MR 0 0.0 3.80 3.52 3.35
Valdez, Merkin LR 0 0.0 5.43 5.03 4.36
Kirkman, Michael LR 0 0.0 5.36 4.96 4.53
0.0
Reliever Total 11 4.3 3.49 3.24 3.27
Team Total 45 19.6 3.92 3.62 3.63


RA: Runs allowed per 9, calculated as 1.08*ERA
ERA: Earned runs allowed per 9
FIP: Fielding independent pitching

We don’t have etched in stone rotations for this series.  All I know for certain is that C.J. Wilson will start Game 1 for Texas, and that it’s likely Jeff Niemann gets the ball in Game 1 for the Rays.  The Rangers may use Alexi Ogando as a starter but I’ve got him as a reliever for now.

Given these assumptions for playing time, we can then use the runs scored and runs allowed projections to get a Pythagenpat winning percentage which gives us an idea of how strong a team is in the context of this series.

Team Gms RS RA wpct p162
TB 5 23.9 20.4 .572 93
TEX 5 26.0 19.6 .631 102

RS: Projected runs scored
RA: Projected runs allowed
wpct: Pythagenpat winning percentage
p162: # of wins per 162 games using wpct

Oliver LOOOVES Texas.  I don’t know if they’re better than Philly in Oliver, but they’re better than everyone in the AL.  So, running this matchup through a Monte Carlo simulator gives me these odds.

Texas: 59.1%
Rays: 40.9%

I’ll look at Yankees/Tigers tomorrow.

--Posted at 7:15 pm by SG / 27 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Sportsday DFW: With home-field advantage on line, Rangers plan on bringing “A” game for season final

With one game left, the Rangers could still end up playing any of three teams:

• If the Rangers win, they will return home to play the wild card winner, which may not be determined until Thursday. Boston and Tampa Bay enter the final game tied. If both teams have the same result on Wednesday, they will play a tiebreaker game Thursday in Tampa.

• If the Rangers lose and Detroit loses, Texas will still hold home field advantage. The Tigers start their game with Cleveland at 6 p.m. CT, an hour before the first pitch of the Rangers-Angels game.

•If the Rangers lose and Detroit wins, the Rangers will head to New York to face the New York Yankees on Friday.

I think Texas is a better team than Detroit, even though the Yankees handled them pretty well this year.  Detroit is probably a more difficult team in a five game series than they’d be in a seven game series, but I don’t think that pushes them past Texas.. 

I suppose I really don’t care who the Yankees face.  I can see them beating anyone and losing to anyone.  Both Detroit and Texas are good teams that pose a potential obstacle.

The only thing I care about is that whichever of the teams isn’t facing the Yankees is facing Tampa Bay.

--Posted at 9:02 am by SG / 98 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, September 27, 2011

What are the AL Wild Card Odds as of Today

According to Baseball Prospectus, the Red Sox are still favored to win the wild card over the Rays, 55.1% to 44.9%.  This is based on assumed team strengths of .600 for the Yankees, .562 for the Red Sox, .528 for the Rays and .434 for the Orioles.

The first and most obvious problem here is assuming that a Yankee team that’s not playing for anything is going to be the equivalent of a 97 win team, particularly with them already announcing they won’t be pitching any pitchers that are going to be on the postseason roster in tomorrow’s game.  Similarly, we have enough information to look at all four teams and see how strong they really may be over the next two games to see if the odds change appreciably.

I’m going to use the format below when I start my postseason previews.  I’m using The Hardball Times’s Oliver forecasts, since I haven’t had time to re-run CAIRO for 2011.  These projections are the most up-to-date ones (updated weekly) and include 2011 MLEs, so I think they’re solid.  These were last updated on Monday.

First, here’s a rough stab at the teams I’d expect the Yankees and Rays to field over the next two days.

Name Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Jeter, Derek SS 5 .306/.363/.416 3 0.64 .345 .369 .337
Granderson, Curtis CF 5 .259/.342/.496 3 0.74 .358 .314 .374
Teixeira, Mark 1B 5 .265/.357/.498 3 0.75 .369 .380 .364
Rodriguez, Alex 3B 5 .289/.367/.527 3 0.80 .382 .389 .380
Cano, Robinson 2B 5 .312/.359/.511 3 0.77 .374 .358 .381
Swisher, Nick RF 5 .271/.364/.475 3 0.72 .364 .375 .359
Montero, Jesus DH 5 .278/.329/.483 3 0.67 .348 .361 .340
Martin, Russell C 5 .252/.345/.380 3 0.57 .326 .344 .320
Gardner, Brett LF 5 .269/.353/.376 3 0.62 .326 .306 .332
Starter Total 45 .278/.353/.463 29 6.28 .355 .355 .354
Bench Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Posada, Jorge DH 5 .259/.345/.448 3 0.66 .347 .347 .347
Jones, Andruw OF 4 .251/.344/.502 3 0.60 .363 .381 .357
Nunez, Eduardo IF 5 .278/.308/.381 3 0.51 .301 .302 .300
Chavez, Eric 3B 4 .245/.296/.355 3 0.38 .288 .257 .300
Romine, Austin C 4 .246/.289/.364 3 0.38 .287 .300 .283
Dickerson, Chris OF 4 .239/.315/.341 3 0.40 .295 .272 .299
Pena, Ramiro IF 4 .239/.283/.327 3 0.32 .269 .256 .273
Cervelli, Francisco C 0 .263/.314/.365 0 0.00 .298 .310 .293
Bench Total 30 .252/.312/.389 21 3.24 .308 .304 .309
Team Total 75 .268/.337/.433 50 9.52 .336 .335 .336


Outs: Outs at the plate (assumes 25 outs per 9 innings, calculated as (1 - OBP) times PA + GDP per PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
vs. L/R: Projected wOBA splits vs. LHP/RHP using regressed platoon splits

Name Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Jennings, Desmond LF 8 .266/.334/.415 5 1.01 .328 .340 .321
Upton, B.J. CF 8 .235/.328/.402 5 0.98 .323 .339 .316
Longoria, Evan 3B 8 .268/.365/.510 5 1.26 .376 .393 .369
Zobrist, Ben 2B 8 .261/.358/.437 5 1.09 .349 .357 .345
Damon, Johnny DH 8 .272/.343/.430 5 1.05 .339 .322 .346
Joyce, Matt RF 8 .263/.349/.463 5 1.12 .352 .319 .357
Kotchman, Casey 1B 8 .271/.335/.395 5 0.91 .324 .300 .331
Jaso, John C 4 .247/.329/.357 3 0.41 .309 .286 .313
Rodriguez, Sean SS 4 .237/.315/.402 3 0.45 .314 .332 .304
Starter Total 64 .260/.342/.429 42 8.29 .338 .335 .337
Bench Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Ruggiano, Justin OF 1 .250/.301/.395 1 0.11 .304 .312 .297
Shoppach, Kelly C 4 .208/.303/.379 3 0.41 .302 .323 .292
Johnson, Elliot IF 0 .247/.286/.384 0 0.00 .286 .292 .280
Fuld, Sam OF 1 .250/.322/.357 1 0.10 .304 .284 .310
Guyer, Brandon OF 1 .281/.325/.444 1 0.13 .330 .338 .315
Canzler, Russ IF 0 .263/.328/.450 0 0.00 .337 .371 .303
Lobaton, Jose C 0 .241/.316/.365 0 0.00 .303 .301 .304
Brignac, Reid SS 4 .235/.276/.336 3 0.31 .269 .246 .274
Bench Total 11 .233/.297/.368 8 1.06 .293 .292 .289
Team Total 75 .256/.335/.420 50 9.35 .331 .329 .330


Even at less than full strength, the Yankees probably have the better offense on the field.

For the pitching, it’s a bit trickier but I’ll take a shot anyway.

Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Sabathia, CC SP1 0 0 3.70 3.43 3.28
Colon, Bartolo SP2 5 3 4.82 4.04 3.97
Nova, Ivan SP3 0 0 4.77 4.36 4.33
Garcia, Freddy SP4 0 0 4.60 4.36 4.33
Burnett, A.J. SP5 0 0 5.21 4.82 4.49
Hughes, Phil SP6 0 0 4.45 4.12 4.17
Betances, Dellin SP7 4 2 5.36 4.96 4.83
Brackman, Andrew SP8 0 0 6.80 6.30 5.88
Starter Total 9 5 5.06 4.45 4.35
Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Rivera, Mariano CL 1 0 3.03 2.81 2.89
Robertson, David SU 1 0 3.75 3.47 3.05
Soriano, Rafael SU 1 0 3.61 3.34 3.64
Logan, Boone SU 1 0 4.32 4.00 3.77
Wade, Cory MR 1 0 4.38 4.06 4.09
Ayala, Luis MR 1 1 4.50 4.17 3.92
Noesi, Hector MR 0 0 4.59 4.25 4.03
Proctor, Scott LR 1 1 5.78 5.35 5.21
Laffey, Aaron LR 1 1 5.56 5.15 4.59
Kontos, George LR 1 1 5.38 4.98 5.02
Reliever Total 9 4 4.48 4.15 4.02
Team Total 18 10 4.77 4.30 4.19


RA: Runs allowed per 9, calculated as 1.08*ERA
ERA: Earned runs allowed per 9
FIP: Fielding independent pitching

Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Price, David SP1 7 3 3.84 3.41 3.50
Shields, James SP2 0 0 4.03 3.70 3.68
Hellickson, Jeremy SP3 7 3 3.85 3.55 3.97
Niemann, Jeff SP4 0 0 4.11 3.95 4.11
Davis, Wade SP5 0 0 4.61 4.34 4.51
Moore, Matt SP6 0 0 4.57 4.23 4.10
SP7 0
SP8 0
Starter Total 14 6 3.84 3.48 3.74
Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Farnsworth, Kyle CL 1 0 3.53 3.27 3.23
Peralta, Joel SU 1 0 3.35 3.10 3.50
Howell, J.P. SU 1 1 4.64 4.30 4.08
Cruz, Juan SU 1 1 4.75 4.40 4.40
McGee, Jake MR 0 0 4.56 4.22 4.03
Gomes, Brandon MR 0 0 4.21 3.90 3.71
Ramos, Cesar MR 0 0 5.18 4.80 4.43
De La Rosa, Dane LR 0 0 5.03 4.66 4.40
Sonnanstine, Andy LR 0 0 5.43 5.03 4.88
Reliever Total 4 2 4.07 3.77 3.80
Team Total 18 8 3.89 3.54 3.75


Obviously the assumption here is 18 innings over two games.  I don’t know if the Yankees would actually start Dellin Betances tomorrow, but I’m not sure who else they’d consider and the difference over four projected innings is minimal.

I am not going to bother with defense here, since it’s mostly covered in the pitching projections and trying to tease out two games of defense is more likely to be counter-productive than tell us anything useful.

How about the Red Sox and Orioles?

Name Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Ellsbury, Jacoby CF 8 .306/.349/.482 5 1.20 .357 .341 .363
Crawford, Carl LF 8 .286/.327/.443 5 1.05 .333 .304 .345
Pedroia, Dustin 2B 8 .290/.362/.454 5 1.13 .355 .370 .349
Ortiz, David DH 8 .286/.367/.548 5 1.32 .390 .354 .405
Gonzalez, Adrian 1B 8 .327/.412/.588 5 1.51 .426 .389 .443
Lowrie, Jed 3B 8 .259/.316/.409 5 0.91 .316 .341 .303
Drew, J.D. RF 8 .263/.346/.454 5 1.06 .349 .319 .359
Saltalamacchia, Jarrod C 8 .235/.290/.416 6 0.86 .305 .285 .316
Scutaro, Marco SS 8 .281/.347/.394 5 0.96 .328 .361 .295
Starter Total 72 .281/.346/.465 47 10.00 .351 .340 .353
Bench Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Aviles, Mike IF 0 .268/.296/.413 0 0.00 .305 .319 .298
Varitek, Jason C 0 .234/.303/.434 0 0.00 .317 .332 .311
Jackson, Conor OF 2 .250/.324/.364 1 0.21 .309 .325 .302
Aviles, Mike IF 0 .268/.296/.413 0 0.00 .305 .319 .298
McDonald, Darnell OF 0 .269/.316/.449 0 0.00 .326 .339 .310
Gathright, Joey OF 0 .239/.291/.311 0 0.00 .269 .255 .272
Lavarnway, Ryan C 2 .255/.332/.467 1 0.27 .345 .358 .338
Drew, J.D. OF 0 .263/.346/.454 0 0.00 .349 .319 .359
Bench Total 4 .252/.328/.415 3 0.48 .327 .342 .320
Team Total 76 .280/.345/.462 50 10.48 .350 .340 .351

Name Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Angle, Matt LF 8 .250/.309/.313 6 0.72 .280 .224 .336
Hardy, J.J. SS 8 .260/.305/.430 6 0.93 .317 .335 .311
Markakis, Nick RF 8 .288/.352/.419 5 1.02 .341 .318 .351
Guerrero, Vladimir DH 8 .295/.329/.460 5 1.03 .341 .356 .336
Wieters, Matt C 8 .261/.324/.414 5 0.93 .324 .327 .323
Jones, Adam CF 8 .282/.318/.457 5 1.00 .333 .336 .332
Reynolds, Mark 1B 8 .236/.332/.521 5 1.21 .362 .383 .355
Davis, Chris 3B 8 .271/.321/.476 5 1.08 .341 .318 .350
Andino, Robert 2B 8 .254/.297/.361 6 0.75 .289 .303 .283
Starter Total 72 .267/.321/.428 49 8.67 .325 .322 .331
Bench Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Tatum, Craig C 0 .219/.276/.292 0 0.00 .256 .268 .252
Fox, Jake C 0 .265/.323/.476 0 0.00 .343 .349 .339
Adams, Ryan 3B 0 .258/.307/.385 0 0.00 .305 .336 .275
Bell, Josh IF 0 .239/.290/.407 0 0.00 .303 .308 .301
Hudson, Kyle IF 0 .226/.282/.263 0 0.00 .250 .230 .252
Reimold, Nolan OF 1 .255/.334/.437 1 0.13 .337 .349 .330
Florimon Jr., Pedro OF 0 .224/.278/.329 0 0.00 .268 .268 .268
Bench Total 1 #N/A 1 0.13 .337 .349 .330
Team Total 73 #N/A 50 8.80 .325 .323 .331

Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Beckett, Josh SP1 0 0 3.76 3.51 3.85
Lester, Jon SP2 7 3 3.63 3.43 3.45
Bedard, Erik SP3 5 2 4.02 3.62 3.59
Lackey, John SP4 0 0 4.89 4.51 4.14
Wakefield, Tim SP5 0 0 4.93 4.61 5.27
Miller, Andrew SP6 0 0 6.40 5.58 5.01
Weiland, Kyle SP7 0 0 5.56 5.15 4.97
Buchholz, Clay SP8 0 0 4.02 3.59 4.14
Starter Total 12 5 3.79 3.51 3.51
Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Papelbon, Jonathan CL 2 1 3.29 3.05 2.93
Bard, Daniel SU 2 1 3.37 3.12 3.51
Wheeler, Dan SU 1 0 3.96 3.67 4.11
Albers, Matt SU 0 0 4.59 4.25 3.97
Morales, Franklin MR 0 0 4.88 4.52 4.75
Atchison, Scott MR 0 0 3.81 3.53 3.57
Doubront, Felix MR 0 0 5.35 4.95 4.67
Aceves, Alfredo LR 1 0 4.00 3.70 4.02
Bowden, Michael LR 0 0 4.97 4.60 4.79
Buchholz, Clay LR 0 0 3.88 3.59 4.14
Tazawa, Junichi LR 6 2 3.55 3.29 3.50
Team Total 18 7 3.71 3.43 3.51

Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Britton, Zach SP1 5 2 4.44 4.11 4.04
Simon, Alfredo SP2 5 3 5.13 4.60 4.48
Matusz, Brian SP3 0 0 4.96 4.69 4.59
Hunter, Tommy SP4 0 0 4.60 4.38 4.48
Vandenhurk, Rick SP5 0 0 5.64 5.09 5.38
Guthrie, Jeremy SP6 0 0 4.39 4.14 4.41
SP7 0
SP8 0
Starter Total 10 5 4.78 4.36 4.26
Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Johnson, Jim CL 1 0 3.93 3.64 3.65
Gregg, Kevin SU 1 1 4.76 4.41 4.35
Patton, Troy SU 1 1 5.18 4.80 4.72
Bergesen, Brad SU 1 1 4.91 4.55 4.57
Accardo, Jeremy MR 1 1 4.78 4.43 4.18
Berken, Jason MR 1 1 5.28 4.89 4.40
Eyre, Willie MR 1 1 4.70 4.35 4.25
Rapada, Clay LR 1 0 4.44 4.11 3.76
Reyes, Jo-Jo LR 0 0 5.72 5.30 4.92
Strop, Pedro LR 0 0 4.59 4.25 3.90
Reliever Total 8 4 4.75 4.40 4.23
Team Total 18 10 4.77 4.37 4.25


Yeah, yeah, yeah, so what does all this nerdy crap mean?

It means this.

Team Gms RS RA wpct
NYA 2 9.5 9.5 .499
BOS 2 10.5 7.4 .656
TB 2 9.4 7.8 .584
BAL 2 8.8 9.5 .471

And if we use those numbers adjusted for home-field advantage to play out the last two games of the season, here’s what I get for the wild card odds.

Rays: 50.9%
Red Sox: 49.1%

Should be interesting.

--Posted at 4:50 pm by SG / 12 Comments | - (0)




Friday, September 23, 2011

The Wild Card Implications of This Weekend’s Series With Boston

Here are how the odds of winning the wild card change based on the various possible outcomes of this weekend’s series between Boston and the Yankees.

Yankees Sweep WC%
Red Sox 48.2%
Rays 44.6%
Angels 7.2%
Rangers 0.1%
Yankees 2-1 WC%
Red Sox 75.8%
Rays 21.6%
Angels 2.5%
Rangers 0.1%
Red Sox 2-1 WC%
Red Sox 91.2%
Rays 8.0%
Angels 0.7%
Red Sox Sweep WC%
Red Sox 98.8%
Rays 1.2%


Weather may affect tonight’s game, which could mean a doubleheader tomorrow or Sunday.

--Posted at 10:51 am by SG / 38 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Yankees.com: Yanks clinch playoff spot with eighth-inning rally

NEW YORK—The Yankees are going back to the playoffs for the 16th time in 17 seasons. Big hits by Eduardo Nunez and Robinson Cano sparked a three-run eighth inning to push New York past Tampa Bay, 4-2, in the Game 1 of a doubleheader Wednesday at Yankee Stadium.

The win ensured that Tampa Bay will not win the American League East title and the Yankees will at least capture the AL Wild Card.

Two more to get the division, and four more for home field advantage.

--Posted at 3:47 pm by SG / 8 Comments | - (0)



2011 Postseason Odds Through Games of September 20

TM W L Div WC PL
Tigers 94 68 100.000% 0.000% 100.000%
Phillies 103 59 100.000% 0.000% 100.000%
Brewers 96 66 99.965% 0.028% 99.993%
Yankees 97 65 98.525% 1.345% 99.870%
Diamondbacks 93 69 99.080% 0.161% 99.241%
Rangers 93 69 98.705% 0.144% 98.849%
Braves 92 70 0.000% 85.614% 85.614%
Red Sox 92 70 1.275% 81.829% 83.104%
Rays 90 72 0.200% 15.849% 16.049%
Cardinals 89 73 0.035% 12.708% 12.743%
Giants 88 74 0.920% 1.489% 2.409%
Angels 88 74 1.295% 0.833% 2.128%

Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

--Posted at 7:30 am by SG / 6 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Can The Yankees Get Swept By Tampa Bay and Still Win the AL East?

Here are the shedules for the rest of the season for the teams that are still relevant in the AL wild card/East race.

Date Yankees w Red Sox w Rays w Rangers w Angels w
9/20/2011 Rays 0 Orioles 0 @Yankees 0 @Athletics 0 @Blue Jays 0
9/21/2011 Rays 0 Orioles 0 @Yankees 0 @Athletics 0 @Blue Jays 0
9/21/2011 Rays 0 @Yankees 0
9/22/2011 Rays 0 @Yankees 0 @Athletics 0 @Blue Jays 0
9/23/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays 0 Mariners 0 Athletics 0
9/24/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays 0 Mariners 0 Athletics 0
9/25/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays 0 Mariners 0 Athletics 0
9/26/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 0 Yankees 0 @Angels 0 Rangers 0
9/27/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 0 Yankees 0 @Angels 0 Rangers 0
9/28/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 0 Yankees 0 @Angels 0 Rangers 0
current final current final current final current final current final
W 92 92 88 88 85 85 88 88 83 83
L 60 70 66 74 67 77 65 74 70 79


The good news is that the Yankees’ magic number over LAAA of AA is one.  The next Yankee win or Angels loss makes it a three way dance, as Paul Heyman would call it.  I am going to guarantee that the Angels lose one of their last nine games, so let’s play around with the three way dance scenarios.

Here’s where we are now.

Date Yankees w Red Sox w Rays w
9/20/2011 Rays 0 Orioles 0 @Yankees 0
9/21/2011 Rays 0 Orioles 0 @Yankees 0
9/21/2011 Rays 0 @Yankees 0
9/22/2011 Rays 0 @Yankees 0
9/23/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays
9/24/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays
9/25/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays
9/26/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 0 Yankees 0
9/27/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 0 Yankees 0
9/28/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 0 Yankees 0
current final current final current final
W 92 92 88 88 85 85
L 60 70 66 74 67 77

Here’s where we are assuming Boston and Tampa Bay win all their non-Yankee games.

Date Yankees w Red Sox w Rays w
9/20/2011 Rays 0 Orioles 1 @Yankees 0
9/21/2011 Rays 0 Orioles 1 @Yankees 0
9/21/2011 Rays 0 @Yankees 0
9/22/2011 Rays 0 @Yankees 0
9/23/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays 1
9/24/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays 1
9/25/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays 1
9/26/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 1 Yankees 0
9/27/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 1 Yankees 0
9/28/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 1 Yankees 0
current final current final current final
W 92 92 88 93 85 88
L 60 70 66 69 67 74

A 1 in the ‘w’ column to the right of each team’s name is a win.  I guess that means you can put it on the right side.  So what this table shows is Boston winning all five of their games against the Orioles, which means 93 wins before considering whatever they may do against the Yankees and Tampa Bay sweeping Toronto.

The Rays have to win at least five games against the Yankees if they want to get to the 93 wins Boston would have if/when they win all their games against Baltimore.  If that were to happen, we’d be looking at this:

Date Yankees w Red Sox w Rays w
9/20/2011 Rays 1 Orioles 1 @Yankees 0
9/21/2011 Rays 0 Orioles 1 @Yankees 1
9/21/2011 Rays 0 @Yankees 1
9/22/2011 Rays 1 @Yankees 0
9/23/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays 1
9/24/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays 1
9/25/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays 1
9/26/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 1 Yankees 1
9/27/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 1 Yankees 1
9/28/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 1 Yankees 1
current final current final current final
W 92 94 88 93 85 93
L 60 68 66 69 67 69

In this scenario, the Yankees would have to sweep Boston to beat them out for the division and to give Tampa Bay the wild card.  Any loss by Boston vs. the Orioles means the Yankees can take 2-3 against them and still go 2-5 vs. Tampa Bay.

Of course, it’s all moot if Tampa Bay doesn’t sweep the Blue Jays.

If the Yankees win two of their next four games vs. Tampa Bay and Boston wins their two games vs. Baltimore, the Yankees can clinch a tie for the AL East by winning one of the three games vs. Boston.  If Boston loses one of their next two against Baltimore the Yankees can clinch the East against them at home.  That would be fun.

So I’m hoping for a 2-2 split with Tampa Bay over the next four games with Boston losing one of the next two to the O’s which gives the Yankees three shots to clinch against Boston.

--Posted at 10:36 am by SG / 24 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, September 18, 2011

Yankees.com: Whatever

Freddy Garcia allowed three runs over 4 2/3 innings Sunday, while Yankees bats were held in check by Brandon Morrow in the series finale in Toronto

On September 6, the Yankees beat Baltimore 5-3.  It was their sixth straight win and put them at 87-53, and 2.5 games up on Boston in the AL East.  Actually, here are the complete AL standings on September 6.

Tm W L GB
NYY 87 53
BOS 85 56 2.5
TEX 81 62 7.5
DET 80 62 8.0
TBR 77 64 10.5
LAA 77 65 11.0
CHW 71 69 16.0
CLE 70 69 16.5
TOR 70 72 18.0
OAK 64 78 24.0
KCR 60 83 28.5
SEA 59 82 28.5
MIN 58 84 30.0
BAL 55 85 32.0

The Yankees lost their last home game to Baltimore in 11 innings before embarking on a 10 game, four city road trip that is finally over.  The Yankees lost a makeup game in Baltimore before flying out to Anaheim to drop the first two games of a three game series there.  They then righted the ship briefly by winning the finale in Los Angeles and then taking the first two in Seattle.  They dropped the finale in Seattle and the first one in Toronto and then split the final two games.  So they went 4-6 on the trip, and 4-7 in their last 11 games.

We can play the expected record using log5 vs. actual record to see just how badly the Yankees underperformed over the last 11 games.

Date Game xW xL aW aL
9/7/2011 vs Orioles 0.7 0.3 0 1
9/8/2011 @ Orioles 0.6 0.4 0 1
9/9/2011 @ Angels 0.5 0.5 0 1
9/10/2011 @ Angels 0.5 0.5 0 1
9/11/2011 @ Angels 0.5 0.5 1 0
9/12/2011 @ Mariners 0.6 0.4 1 0
9/13/2011 @ Mariners 0.6 0.4 1 0
9/14/2011 @ Mariners 0.6 0.4 0 1
9/16/2011 @ Blue Jays 0.6 0.4 0 1
9/17/2011 @ Blue Jays 0.6 0.4 1 0
9/18/2011 @ Blue Jays 0.6 0.4 0 1
6.3 4.7 4 7

xW/L: Expected wins/losses
aW/L: Actual wins/losses.

So they lost about two more games than they probably should have.  If they’d won 2 of the 4 walk-off losses they’d have basically been where they should have been.

Here’s how the standings look now.

Tm W L GB Gain
NYY 91 60
DET 89 64 3.0 5.0
BOS 87 65 4.5 -2.0
TEX 88 65 4.0 3.5
TBR 83 69 8.5 2.0
LAA 83 69 8.5 2.5
TOR 77 75 14.5 3.5
CLE 75 75 15.5 1.0
CHW 74 78 17.5 -1.5
OAK 69 84 23.0 1.0
KCR 67 87 25.5 3.0
SEA 63 89 28.5 0.0
BAL 62 89 29.0 3.0
MIN 59 92 32.0 -2.0

Gain is just the number of games each team gained on the Yankees since September 7. 

The saving grace for this debacle of a stretch is that Boston actually played worse, which allowed the Yankees to pick up 2.5 games on them for the AL East.  The Yankees were also able to pick up two important games on Minnesota.

Detroit made the biggest move up, which is an issue for possible home field advantage.  The Tigers have a much easier schedule than the Yankees over the rest of the season, with only two road games (against Kansas City) and 7 home games, 4 against Baltimore and 3 against Cleveland.  Texas also picked up ground in the race for home field advantage, but they have a more difficult schedule than Detroit with six road games against Oakland and California and three home games against Seattle.

The Yankees are probably still over 99% for making the postseason, and about 95% for winning the division.  At the beginning of the season I’m sure any of us would have been happy to be in this position right now.  But you can’t help but feel disappointed that the Yankees didn’t take advantage of a golden opportunity to put things away over the past week and get themselves into the best position possible heading into the postseason.

--Posted at 7:30 pm by SG / 37 Comments | - (0)




Monday, September 12, 2011

Down The Stretch They Come

Instead of just throwing a bunch of percentages up here like I’d normally do right about now, I wanted to take a more granular look at the remaining schedule for the AL postseason contenders.

The Yankees have won 88 games.  The teams in the AL who can exceed that this point are Boston, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Texas, LAAAAAA of AA, Cleveland, the White Sox and Toronto.  If all those teams won the rest of their games, here’s where they’d end the year.

Team W L GR Max
NYY 88 57 17 105
BOS 85 61 16 101
DET 84 62 16 100
TB 81 64 17 98
TEX 83 64 15 98
LAA 80 66 16 96
CLE 72 72 18 90
CWS 73 72 17 90
TOR 74 73 15 89


Because most of those teams play at least a few games against each other, they can’t all win all their remaining games.  Cleveland has three games left with the Rangers and four games left with the White Sox, for example.  So if they win all their games, Texas can only win at most 93, and the White Sox can only win 86, etc.,  I feel comfortable in saying that it’s not likely either Cleveland or the White Sox will win more games than the Yankees over the rest of the year.  For the purposes of assessing the Yankees’ postseason chances, Detroit’s a non-factor in this scenario, because they can’t contend for the wild card AND win more games than the Yankees.

Toronto plays nothing but teams on that list for the rest of the year, with two vs. Boston, three vs. the Yankees, four vs. the Angels, three vs. the Rays, and three vs. the White Sox.  I’m going to go out on a limb and say they’ll lose at least two of those.  So I’m going to only look at the other teams.

Team NYY BOS DET TB TEX LAA
NYY 3 6
BOS 3 4
DET
TB 6 4
TEX 3
LAA 3


Texas and California have three games left against each other.

Tampa Bay has six games left vs. the Yankees and four games vs. Boston.

The Yankees have those six games vs. the Rays and three games vs. Boston.

Detroit gets to beat up on cream puffs for the rest of the year, and are right now the team with the highest playoff probability in the American League.  So I’m going to say they’re in.

That means you’ve got five teams fighting for three playoff spots. 

The first number to think about is that 96 from Anaheim.  If they get there, that means Texas can only get to 95. So 96 wins is effectively the clinching number to eliminate the AL west runner-up from the wild card.  That obviously goes down each time Texas and LAA lose.

If Tampa Bay can get to 98, that means Boston can only get to 97 and the Yankees can only get to 99.  So getting to that 97 from Boston is the bar for the Yankees, although it would only be a tie.  Again, that obviously goes down as the Rays/Red Sox lose.

That means the Yankees’ magic number for tying for a postseason spot is nine, and for taking one outright is 10.  In the event that the Yankees and Red Sox tied for the last spot, the season series between them wouldn’t matter, and there’d be a one game play-in.

Which the Sox would win handily.

--Posted at 9:39 am by SG / 72 Comments | - (0)




Friday, September 9, 2011

What If?

What if the Yankees hadn’t handed the Orioles two wins on Wednesday and Thursday?

W L Div WC PL
101 61 88.7% 11.4% 100.0%


W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

Instead, we’re looking at

W L Div WC PL
99 63 75.5% 24.4% 99.9%


What if the Yankees get swept by Anaheim?

W L Div WC PL
97 65 57.1% 42.3% 99.4%
--Posted at 2:21 pm by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Citizen’s Voice: Mitchell brilliant as Yankees down Buffalo in 2011 finale

D.J. Mitchell had just worked eight dominant innings. Jorge Vazquez drove in three runs and hit as long a home run as he hit in his record-setting season. And 2011 ended on a clean, crisp, 5-1 win over Buffalo.

In that clubhouse, one disappointed days ago that it couldn’t secure the franchise’s unprecedented sixth straight playoff berth, there was a sense of finality to it all.
...
As he was giving his postgame interview, Mitchell’s eyes lunched toward the television. The slugger who helped spark the Yankees offense all season, catcher Jesus Montero, had just hit his second home run of his big league career.

The [Scranton Wilkes/Barre]Yankees players milling around the clubhouse flocked to any television they could find to watch their former teammate trot around the bases.
...
As his old teammates watched Montero take his curtain call, Miley had the last big job of the season. He called outfielder Greg Golson, infielder Ramiro Pena and pitchers Hector Noesi and George Kontos into his office to deliver the news they had been hoping for or, in one case, waiting for an entire lifetime.

They were going to the big leagues.

“I can’t even describe this feeling. It’s surreal,” said Kontos, his cell phone in hand and tears welling in his eyes as he pondered who to call next to talk about his first big-league call-up. “It’s everything I worked for, my whole lifetime. To think that I’m going up, it’s unreal.”

More reinforcements on the way. 

And in case you’re curious, here’s an update to the AL postseason odds after yesterday’s action.

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Yankees 100 62 892 651 72.5% 27.2% 99.7%
Red Sox 97 65 864 692 27.4% 71.5% 98.9%
Rays 88 74 692 609 0.1% 1.3% 1.4%
Blue Jays 80 82 756 743 - - -
Orioles 64 98 688 864 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Tigers 90 72 759 726 97.3% - 97.3%
White Sox 82 80 654 683 1.8% - 1.8%
Indians 81 81 683 707 0.8% - 0.8%
Twins 70 92 629 801 - - -
Royals 67 95 715 781 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Rangers 91 71 827 700 88.1% - 88.1%
Angels 86 76 665 638 11.9% 0.0% 11.9%
Athletics 76 86 651 675 - - -
Mariners 68 94 559 675 - - -

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

--Posted at 9:31 am by SG / 54 Comments | - (0)




Monday, September 5, 2011

Monte Carlo Standings and Postseason Odds Through September 4, 2011

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Yankees 99 63 870 657 63.0% 36.7% 99.7%
Red Sox 98 64 860 694 36.9% 62.3% 99.3%
Rays 87 75 705 630 0.1% 0.9% 1.0%
Blue Jays 79 83 745 749 - - -
Orioles 64 98 694 841 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Tigers 89 73 740 724 94.2% - 94.2%
White Sox 82 80 672 681 4.0% - 4.0%
Indians 80 82 688 720 1.9% - 1.9%
Twins 71 91 662 791 - - -
Royals 67 95 706 782 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Rangers 91 71 815 696 92.1% 0.0% 92.1%
Angels 86 76 666 650 7.9% 0.0% 7.9%
Athletics 75 87 654 668 - - -
Mariners 69 93 574 678 - - -
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Phillies 103 59 736 555 98.0% 2.0% 100.0%
Braves 94 68 678 605 2.0% 95.4% 97.4%
Mets 80 82 723 733 - 0.0% 0.0%
Nationals 75 87 632 688 - - -
Marlins 73 89 647 717 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Brewers 95 67 723 659 98.7% 0.2% 98.9%
Cardinals 86 76 761 714 1.3% 2.1% 3.3%
Reds 81 81 751 711 - - -
Pirates 74 88 633 706 - - -
Cubs 70 92 664 768 - - -
Astros 56 106 610 787 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Diamondbacks 89 73 713 689 83.2% 0.1% 83.3%
Giants 85 77 575 585 15.9% 0.3% 16.2%
Dodgers 80 82 641 630 0.8% 0.0% 0.8%
Rockies 78 84 744 751 0.1% - 0.1%
Padres 71 91 614 637 - - -

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

Not looking like too much suspense aside from seeding at this point.

--Posted at 9:14 am by SG / 10 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, August 30, 2011

The Implications of this Series with Boston

At this point, I have Boston as around a 2-1 favorite for winning the AL East.

So, here’s how that changes based on the various potential outcomes for this series.

Now W L Div
Red Sox 100.0 62.0 67.5%
Yankees 97.9 64.1 32.5%
Yankee Sweep W L Div
Yankees 98.8 63.2 56.5%
Red Sox 98.0 64.0 43.0%
Yankees 2-1 W L Div
Red Sox 99.4 62.6 59.5%
Yankees 98.0 64.0 40.5%
Boston 2-1 W L Div
Red Sox 100.1 62.0 71.5%
Yankees 97.6 64.4 28.5%
Boston sweep W L Div
Red Sox 100.9 61.1 84.0%
Yankees 96.2 65.8 16.0%

Tampa Bay is still technically in the divisional picture, their chances just aren’t registering above the .5% threshold needed to be seen here.  The fact that Boston and the Yankees play each other six times makes it that much harder for the Rays to catch both.

So basically, if the Yankees still want a realistic shot at winning the division, they have to sweep this series.  I probably don’t have to tell you that the likelihood of that is slim.

--Posted at 7:39 am by SG / 34 Comments | - (0)




Monday, August 15, 2011

MLB 2011 Monte Carlo Postseason Odds Through August 15

As requested by ml242.

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Red Sox 98.1 63.9 862 683 51.1% 46.8% 97.8%
Yankees 97.8 64.2 854 647 48.6% 49.1% 97.7%
Rays 85.6 76.4 709 656 0.3% 3.3% 3.6%
Blue Jays 80.4 81.6 741 746 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Orioles 63.6 98.4 693 841 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Tigers 86.6 75.4 720 727 66.1% 0.0% 66.2%
White Sox 82.4 79.6 666 677 19.6% 0.0% 19.6%
Indians 80.8 81.2 699 712 13.4% 0.0% 13.4%
Twins 75.0 87.0 661 766 0.9% - 0.9%
Royals 66.6 95.4 696 783 0.0% - 0.0%
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Rangers 90.7 71.3 811 680 82.8% 0.1% 82.9%
Angels 84.8 77.2 634 629 17.1% 0.4% 17.5%
Athletics 75.2 86.8 644 659 0.1% - 0.1%
Mariners 71.5 90.5 568 650 0.0% - 0.0%
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Phillies 102.3 59.7 723 561 96.3% 3.6% 99.9%
Braves 92.0 70.0 690 618 3.7% 78.8% 82.5%
Mets 78.4 83.6 724 726 - 0.3% 0.3%
Marlins 76.7 85.3 651 699 - 0.1% 0.1%
Nationals 76.2 85.8 641 691 - 0.1% 0.1%
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Brewers 91.4 70.6 717 676 77.7% 3.5% 81.2%
Cardinals 86.7 75.3 763 705 20.8% 6.7% 27.4%
Reds 81.0 81.0 756 703 1.4% 0.7% 2.1%
Pirates 75.0 87.0 628 693 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Cubs 73.3 88.7 682 781 0.0% - 0.0%
Astros 54.7 107.3 604 797 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Giants 89.0 73.0 591 584 68.0% 2.5% 70.5%
Diamondbacks 86.1 75.9 725 715 30.6% 3.6% 34.2%
Rockies 77.2 84.8 732 739 0.6% 0.0% 0.6%
Dodgers 77.2 84.8 618 641 0.6% 0.1% 0.7%
Padres 73.7 88.3 620 639 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

The Yankees have a slightly easier group of opponents down the stretch than Boston, but Boston has that half game lead in hand, and a more favorable split of home/road games.  Really though, the AL East is a tossup at this point, and unless the Yankees can do the unimaginable and actually win a series against Boston, they won’t deserve to win the East anyway.

I have to say, it’s looking like we’re not going to have much in the way of pennant races going forward, although a few races are tight enough to be interesting depending on how things go. 

Of course that won’t stop Bud Selig from trying to dilute the postseason even more. 

--Posted at 1:45 pm by SG / 16 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, August 2, 2011

WSJ: The Yankees’ Run Differential Suggests Greatness

Through Sunday, the Yankees have scored the second-most runs in the league (560) and allowed the second fewest (410). That differential of 1.4 runs per game is the best mark in all of baseball. And it’s been surpassed by just one of the five World Series champion teams that have hoisted the flag at the Stadium during the Derek Jeter era. Only the 1998 Yankees bested it at plus-1.9 runs in 1998.

If we’re talking about ability, then we have to be consider the fact that the team’s YTD run differential doesn’t tell us everything about them.  We have to consider the sustainability of their performance to this point. 

Team PA AB H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS R BR
Yankees 4143 3619 950 174 24 139 106 34 413 729 .263 .342 .439 .782 563 534
Opponents 4088 3662 911 190 16 81 86 26 337 793 .249 .316 .376 .692 412 434

The key thing here is to compare the actual runs scored/allowed so far this year (R) with the linear weights batting runs (BR).  What BR does is consider the average run value of everything a team has done and puts their runs scored/allowed into a context-neutral equivalent.  This is more predictive than actual runs scored/allowed data since that can be skewed by things besides skill.

As you can see, the Yankees have scored a few more runs than their peripheral stats say they should have scored and they’ve allowed fewer.  So their 563 runs scored and 412 runs allowed indicate that they’ve played at around the level of a .643 wpct/104 win team and their context-neutral numbers say they’ve played more like a .596 wpct/97 win team.

None of that really matters by the time the postseason gets here.  Although it’s premature to start booking our reservations the Yankees are probably at about a 96% of making the postseason right now, based on a run of my Monte Carlo simulator as of this morning.

MLB Team Div WC PL
Phillies 91.6% 7.5% 99.0%
Red Sox 53.9% 43.4% 97.3%
Yankees 45.8% 50.2% 96.0%
Braves 8.3% 67.2% 75.4%
Rangers 72.1% 1.0% 73.1%
Giants 58.5% 5.6% 64.1%
Tigers 58.5% - 58.5%
Brewers 53.4% 2.2% 55.6%
Diamondbacks 39.6% 7.0% 46.6%
Cardinals 31.3% 2.5% 33.8%
Angels 27.6% 0.9% 28.5%
Indians 23.2% - 23.2%
White Sox 16.4% 0.4% 16.7%
Reds 8.0% 1.9% 9.9%
Pirates 7.3% 0.7% 8.0%
Rays 0.4% 3.5% 3.9%
Mets 0.1% 3.5% 3.6%
Twins 2.0% - 2.0%
Rockies 1.6% 0.3% 2.0%
Marlins - 1.1% 1.1%
Blue Jays 0.1% 0.6% 0.7%
Nationals 0.1% 0.5% 0.6%
Dodgers 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
Athletics 0.3% - 0.3%
Padres 0.1% - 0.1%
Royals 0.1% - 0.1%
Orioles - - -
Mariners - - -
Cubs - - -
Astros - - -

Div: Probability of winning division
WC: Probability of winning wild card
PL: Probability of qualifying for the playoffs (Div + WC)

If by some miracle the Yankees do make the postseason, we’ll have to re-assess how good they are at that point in time and the only thing the regular season will have given us is a bit more information about how good the players they’ll have on their roster might be. 

I’ve always mentally defined a great team as one that led their league in both runs scored and fewest runs allowed.  Kind of like the aforementioned 1998 Yankees. I don’t think the 2011 Yankees are a great team.  But they’re pretty damn good, even if we forget that sometimes.  At least until they get swept by Boston again.

--Posted at 10:05 am by SG / 36 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, June 30, 2011

Monte Carlo Postseason Odds Through June 30, 2011

It’s been a while since I ran these, so here’s how my Monte Carlo simulator sees the rest of the season playing out.  Team projections are revised using pre-season projections adjusted for roster changes combined with YTD performance.  I add some uncertainty to account for the fact that we really can’t quantify everything about the teams right now and then run the rest of the season is then played out 10,000 times.  Those results are added to what’s happened so far to give estimated final win totals and likelihoods of winning the division or wild card.

Date 6/30/2011
Iterations 10000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Yankees 96.4 65.6 827 683 53.3% 32.5% 85.8%
Red Sox 94.5 67.5 824 684 38.1% 41.4% 79.5%
Rays 86.9 75.1 738 680 8.2% 18.8% 27.0%
Blue Jays 77.0 85.0 700 742 0.3% 1.3% 1.6%
Orioles 72.1 89.9 723 777 0.1% 0.5% 0.6%
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Tigers 86.4 75.6 730 704 54.0% 1.2% 55.2%
Indians 82.0 80.0 713 748 23.4% 1.2% 24.6%
White Sox 80.8 81.2 704 706 18.4% 0.6% 18.9%
Twins 74.5 87.5 713 740 4.0% 0.1% 4.1%
Royals 66.2 95.8 685 802 0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Rangers 87.0 75.0 750 689 62.9% 0.9% 63.7%
Angels 81.6 80.4 651 664 23.3% 1.1% 24.3%
Athletics 77.4 84.6 645 629 8.8% 0.4% 9.2%
Mariners 75.0 87.0 614 672 5.1% 0.2% 5.3%
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Phillies 96.5 65.5 709 608 69.9% 20.8% 90.7%
Braves 91.3 70.7 703 632 27.5% 39.6% 67.1%
Mets 80.5 81.5 718 721 1.7% 5.6% 7.3%
Nationals 77.9 84.1 658 710 0.6% 3.2% 3.8%
Marlins 74.3 87.7 668 685 0.3% 1.0% 1.3%
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Brewers 86.2 75.8 718 699 33.7% 6.2% 39.8%
Cardinals 86.0 76.0 751 722 32.4% 5.6% 38.0%
Reds 85.6 76.4 748 696 28.4% 5.8% 34.2%
Pirates 78.0 84.0 661 738 5.2% 1.3% 6.5%
Cubs 71.9 90.1 700 749 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%
Astros 60.4 101.6 604 754 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Giants 89.4 72.6 654 612 65.4% 3.6% 69.0%
Diamondbacks 81.9 80.1 687 730 15.4% 3.2% 18.6%
Rockies 81.3 80.7 748 732 12.6% 3.3% 15.9%
Dodgers 76.3 85.7 658 662 3.7% 0.6% 4.3%
Padres 74.7 87.3 629 660 2.9% 0.2% 3.1%


W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

I usually like to look at which teams the projections missed by the most, so here’s the list of all teams sorted by the gap between their revised win projections and their pre-season projections here.

Team pW opW pW+/-
Diamondbacks 82 73.0 8.9
Pirates 78 70.2 7.8
Indians 82 74.3 7.7
Phillies 96 90.6 5.9
Nationals 78 72.3 5.6
Yankees 96 92.4 4.0
Braves 91 87.3 4.0
Angels 82 77.9 3.7
Brewers 86 83.1 3.2
Blue Jays 77 73.9 3.1
Cardinals 86 83.3 2.7
Tigers 86 84.6 1.8
Mariners 75 73.6 1.4
Giants 89 88.0 1.4
Mets 80 79.5 1.0
Rays 87 86.1 0.9
Red Sox 95 94.4 0.1
Reds 86 85.5 0.1
Rangers 87 88.0 -1.0
Rockies 81 83.1 -1.8
White Sox 81 82.8 -2.0
Royals 66 68.4 -2.2
Padres 75 79.0 -4.3
Astros 60 65.9 -5.5
Orioles 72 78.6 -6.5
Athletics 77 84.6 -7.2
Dodgers 76 83.6 -7.3
Marlins 74 81.9 -7.6
Cubs 72 79.8 -7.9
Twins 74 84.4 -9.9

The Yankees have picked up a few games on their pre-season projections, although there are a few teams ahead of them in that regard. 

If you’re a Diamondbacks fan, you can be happy that your team now looks like they’re on target to get to 82 wins.  If you’re a Twins fan, you can be glad that you got a bunch of crap for Johan Santana I guess.

--Posted at 8:11 pm by SG / 11 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, May 28, 2011

TGS NY: Joe’s handling of ‘pen not so mighty

David Robertson got out of a bed in Tuscaloosa, Alabama at 4:30 a.m. Eastern time Friday morning. Nearly 20 hours later, he was on the mound at Safeco Field, doing his job to perfection, pitching an overpowering eighth inning against the Mariners.

Trouble was, the game had already been lost two innings earlier.

But that’s what happens when a manager sticks to a game plan even if the game no longer fits his plan.

Robertson, back from a mission of mercy to his tornado-ravaged hometown, was no doubt the most tired man in the Yankee bullpen. He was also the only one able to do his job. Unfortunately, by the time he was asked to do it, it was too late. At the time, the Yankees trailed 4-3, and that’s the way it would stay.

I didn’t get to watch the game, so I’d be interested in everyone else’s take, but here’s how I see the situation.  With Burnett at 97 pitches with five walks through five innings, I don’t think anyone would quibble with the fact that he was pulled prior to the sixth inning.  So the question then is who should have started the bottom of the sixth.  With Adam Kennedy (LHB), Miguel Olivo (RHB) and Carlos Peguero (LHB) due up, I can understand the thought process behind starting the sixth inning with Boone Logan.  You need to get four innings out of your bullpen, so unless you want one of Robertson, Joba Chamberlain or Mariano Rivera to pitch two innings you needed to get some outs from someone other than those three.

Logan allowed a leadoff single to Kennedy.  So now with a RHB up and with the likelihood of a pinch-hitter for Peguero to re-gain the platoon advantage, going to the bullpen for a RHP made sense as well.  Unfortunately, Girardi opted for Luis Ayala instead of Robertson and that’s when the game was lost.

Ayala probably would have pitched an inning at some point in the game, so the real problem is that he and Logan didn’t do their jobs.  However, once Kennedy reached Girardi should have used a better pitcher due to the leverage of the situation, and not the pitcher who’s ordinal spot in the bullpen hierarchy was now due.  If you intended to pitch Robertson or Chamberlain if necessary anyway, they’d have been the better choices in that spot.  If they extended themselves to get out of the inning, you could then go to Ayala to begin the seventh with whichever of Robertson or Chamberlain wasn’t used as a safety net to get the game to Rivera.

Again, the real issue is that Logan and Ayala didn’t execute.  But it’s fair to say that Girardi’s deployment of the bullpen after Logan is also culpable. 

The Yankees really don’t have much margin for error on this road trip if you look at the schedule for the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays over the rest of this West Coast swing.

Date Yankee xW xL Red Sox xW xL Rays xW xL
5/28/2011 @ Mariners .58 .42 @ Tigers .53 .47 vs Indians .58 .42
5/29/2011 @ Mariners .58 .42 @ Tigers .53 .47 vs Indians .58 .42
5/30/2011 @ Athletics .51 .49 vs White Sox .62 .38 vs Rangers .54 .46
5/31/2011 @ Athletics .51 .49 vs White Sox .62 .38 vs Rangers .54 .46
6/1/2011 @ Athletics .51 .49 vs White Sox .62 .38 vs Rangers .54 .46
6/2/2011 @Mariners .54 .46
6/3/2011 @ Angels .54 .46 vs Athletics .59 .41 @Mariners .54 .46
6/4/2011 @ Angels .54 .46 vs Athletics .59 .41 @Mariners .54 .46
6/5/2011 @ Angels .54 .46 vs Athletics .59 .41 @Mariners .54 .46
4.32 3.68 4.72 3.28 4.95 4.05

At this point Boston and the Rays have around a one game advantage over the Yankees over the next nine days, at which point the Yankees will return home to face Boston, Cleveland and Texas on a nine game home stand.  It’s not inconceivable that the Yankees could be trailing Boston and/or Tampa Bay by three or four games by then.  And that’s not exactly the kind of home stand that would allow the Yankees to catch up if they falter on the rest of this trip. 

Right now I’ve got Boston projected to finish around 93-69, the Yankees around 91-71 and Tampa Bay around 88-74.  If that’s how things still look by the end of this road trip I’d happily take it.

--Posted at 8:34 am by SG / 21 Comments | - (0)




Friday, May 13, 2011

The Implications of this Weekend’s Series with Boston

The Red Sox have been playing better since their rough start but are still trying to fight their way to .500.  The Yankees have stumbled a bit over their last ten games, losing 6 and are now in second place in the AL East behind the Tampa Bay Rays, although even in the loss column.

So with a three game set beginning tonight in the Bronx between the Yankees and Boston, here’s a look at how the different ways this series may affect the AL East going forward.

First of all, here’s how my Monte Carlo simulator says the AL East would play out as of today.

Team W L Div WC PL
Red Sox 85.8 76.2 14.6% 17.6% 32.1%
Yankees 92.1 69.9 50.8% 23.7% 74.5%
Rays 89.8 72.2 34.3% 27.6% 61.9%
Blue Jays 74.1 87.9 0.2% 0.4% 0.6%
Orioles 74.5 87.5 0.2% 1.2% 1.4%


W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

When Boston sweeps this series, here’s how things will look.

Team W L Div WC PL
Red Sox 87.5 74.5 23.2% 22.1% 45.3%
Yankees 90.3 71.7 38.2% 25.3% 63.4%
Rays 90.0 72.0 38.0% 23.5% 61.5%
Blue Jays 73.6 88.4 0.0% 0.7% 0.8%
Orioles 74.5 87.5 0.5% 1.4% 1.9%

 

There’s a miniscule chance the Yankees take one of the three games, and if that were to happen here’s how things would shake out.

Team W L Div WC PL
Red Sox 86.4 75.6 15.8% 20.9% 36.6%
Yankees 91.5 70.5 46.9% 24.5% 71.5%
Rays 90.0 72.0 37.1% 23.8% 60.9%
Blue Jays 73.8 88.2 0.1% 0.9% 1.0%
Orioles 74.1 87.9 0.1% 0.9% 0.9%

 

I suppose there’s an infinitesimal chance the Yankees take two of three games in which case here’s how things would project going forward.

Team W L Div WC PL
Red Sox 85.7 76.3 13.8% 18.6% 32.4%
Yankees 91.9 70.1 50.4% 23.6% 73.9%
Rays 90.2 71.8 35.4% 27.5% 62.9%
Blue Jays 74.3 87.7 0.3% 0.7% 1.0%
Orioles 74.0 88.0 0.2% 0.6% 0.7%


In the completely theoretical and impossible scenario where the Yankees sweep, this would be the net result.

Team W L Div WC PL
Red Sox 84.6 77.4 10.6% 15.6% 26.1%
Yankees 93.5 68.5 58.3% 24.5% 82.8%
Rays 89.9 72.1 30.5% 28.8% 59.3%
Blue Jays 73.6 88.4 0.2% 1.1% 1.2%
Orioles 74.3 87.7 0.5% 1.3% 1.8%

One of my foibles is superstition.  Because of that,  I see no way a series against Boston that kicks off on a Friday the 13th is going to go well.  Hopefully I’m wrong.

--Posted at 11:16 am by SG / 29 Comments | - (0)




Friday, April 22, 2011

MLB.com: MLB considering expanded playoffs for 2012

Major League Baseball is still working toward expanding the playoffs in time for the 2012 postseason, Commissioner Bud Selig said in New York on Thursday.

“I would say we’re moving to expanding the playoffs, but there’s a myriad of details to work out,” Selig said Thursday at his annual meeting with the Associated Press Sports Editors. “Ten is a fair number.”

After the GMs and owners met this past November there seemed to be universal agreement that two more Wild Card teams should be added to the playoff mix, making it 10 out of the 30 MLB teams qualifying for the postseason. But the length of the first round—whether it be a single play-in game or a best-of-three series—and how to fit it into the schedule is still to be determined.

Put me down in the do not like category.  While it probably means the Yankees are going to make the playoffs in just about every year, it cheapens the regular season and makes it more likely the best team in baseball in any given season will not win the World Series.

I hope that whatever they decide to do makes it much harder for the wild card teams to advance.

--Posted at 8:42 am by SG / 41 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, April 7, 2011

The Implications of This Weekend’s Series with Boston

You may or may not have heard, but the best team in baseball history has gotten off to a rough start at 0-6.  It’s important to understand what that means in the big picture.  It’s too small of a sample size to meaningfully change our estimate of how good they are.  However, those games do count, and they do need to be factored into whatever we forecast Boston to do going forward.

If Boston was a 94-95 win team over 162 games at the start of the year, they’re probably still a 94-95 win team.  However, they only have 156 games left to play.  At the same winning percentage, they’re more like a 91 win team now.  Here’s a quick look at the average projections for the AL East at the start of the season according to the aggregate from the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout.

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Red Sox 94.4 67.6 817 687 42.1% 17.8% 59.8%
Yankees 92.4 69.6 812 707 32.8% 18.2% 51.0%
Rays 86.1 75.9 762 704 16.0% 13.4% 29.4%
Orioles 78.6 83.4 748 777 6.0% 6.5% 12.5%
Blue Jays 73.9 88.1 686 751 3.1% 3.2% 6.3%

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

It’s certainly possible that some of these projections were wrong from the start, but we don’t have enough information to know that yet.

Re-running that exercise taking into account what’s actually happened to this point gives us these revised results.

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Yankees 92.1 69.9 812 707 40.2% 16.4% 56.6%
Red Sox 91.1 70.9 817 687 36.5% 19.3% 55.8%
Rays 81.8 80.2 762 704 12.9% 9.5% 22.4%
Orioles 77.8 84.2 748 777 6.3% 6.9% 13.2%
Blue Jays 73.5 88.5 686 751 4.2% 3.5% 7.6%

So if everything played out as projected going forward (it won’t), the Yankees are now slight favorites in the AL East.  That was easy enough.

Using that as our new baseline, here are how those would look depending on the various potential results of the Yankees’ three game series in Fenway this weekend.

Boston Sweeps

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Red Sox 92.4 69.6 817 687 41.3% 18.2% 59.5%
Yankees 90.1 71.9 812 707 34.1% 16.9% 51.1%
Rays 83.0 79.0 762 704 14.0% 10.8% 24.8%
Orioles 78.3 83.7 748 777 7.8% 6.9% 14.7%
Blue Jays 73.0 89.1 686 751 2.8% 3.5% 6.3%

This is basically how things looked in the preseason, with Boston about two games better than the Yankees.

Boston wins 2 of 3

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Red Sox 91.4 70.6 817 687 37.3% 17.3% 54.6%
Yankees 91.3 70.7 812 707 35.9% 18.0% 53.9%
Rays 82.4 79.6 762 704 15.7% 11.5% 27.1%
Orioles 78.3 83.7 748 777 7.8% 7.8% 15.6%
Blue Jays 73.4 88.6 686 751 3.4% 3.3% 6.7%

For all intents and purposes that makes things a dead heat.

Yankees win 2 of 3

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Yankees 92.0 70.0 812 707 40.6% 18.6% 59.1%
Red Sox 90.6 71.4 817 687 35.9% 18.1% 53.9%
Rays 81.9 80.1 762 704 13.0% 9.4% 22.4%
Orioles 78.6 83.4 748 777 8.0% 7.7% 15.7%
Blue Jays 72.8 89.2 686 751 2.6% 3.7% 6.3%

While not my ideal scenario, I would approve of this outcome.

Yankees Sweep

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Yankees 93.9 68.1 812 707 47.2% 17.0% 64.2%
Red Sox 89.3 72.7 817 687 29.6% 16.8% 46.4%
Rays 82.3 79.7 762 704 13.4% 10.7% 24.1%
Orioles 77.7 84.3 748 777 6.5% 6.5% 13.0%
Blue Jays 73.1 88.9 686 751 3.3% 3.6% 6.9%

This is my preferred result.

These odds can swing pretty wildly after just a few games, so don’t take them too seriously.  This is particularly true in baseball where divisional rivals play each other so frequently.

Now obviously it’s really early in the season and we have no idea what will actually happen, but can you imagine the hysteria if the Yankees take all three games? 

Looking at the pitching matchups, the Yankees are probably underdogs in the first two games.

Friday, April 8
Phil “88 mph” Hughes vs. John “World Series Hero” Lackey

Saturday, April 9
Ivan Nova vs. Clay Buchholz

The good news is they should probably be slight favorites in the finale

Sunday, April 10
CC “Future Red Sock” Sabathia vs. Josh “Guardian of playing the game right” Beckett

So the most likely scenario is that the Red Sox take two of three, and really that’s fine with me.  I just don’t want to see the Yankees get swept.

--Posted at 6:00 pm by SG / 74 Comments | - (0)




Monday, April 4, 2011

2011 March/April Expectations

I was looking at the Yankees’ early season schedule and wanted to see what a reasonable expectation is for their performance over the next month.  So using the 2011 CAIRO projected team W/L records and Bill James’s log 5 expected win method, here’s how things look.

Date Game xW xL aW aL aW-xW cxW cxL caW caL caW-cxW
3/31/2011 vs Tigers .61 .39 1 0 .39 0.6 0.4 1.0 0.0 0.4
4/2/2011 vs Tigers .61 .39 1 0 .39 1.2 0.8 2.0 0.0 0.8
4/3/2011 vs Tigers .61 .39 0 1 -.61 1.8 1.2 2.0 1.0 0.2
4/4/2011 vs Twins .61 .39 2.4 1.6
4/5/2011 vs Twins .61 .39 3.0 2.0
4/6/2011 vs Twins .61 .39 3.6 2.4
4/7/2011 vs Twins .61 .39 4.2 2.8
4/8/2011 @ Red Sox .45 .55 4.7 3.3
4/9/2011 @ Red Sox .45 .55 5.1 3.9
4/10/2011 @ Red Sox .45 .55 5.6 4.4
4/12/2011 vs Orioles .64 .36 6.2 4.8
4/13/2011 vs Orioles .64 .36 6.9 5.1
4/14/2011 vs Orioles .64 .36 7.5 5.5
4/15/2011 vs Rangers .56 .44 8.1 5.9
4/16/2011 vs Rangers .56 .44 8.6 6.4
4/17/2011 vs Rangers .56 .44 9.2 6.8
4/19/2011 @ Blue Jays .57 .43 9.8 7.2
4/20/2011 @ Blue Jays .57 .43 10.3 7.7
4/22/2011 @ Orioles .56 .44 10.9 8.1
4/23/2011 @ Orioles .56 .44 11.5 8.5
4/24/2011 @ Orioles .56 .44 12.0 9.0
4/25/2011 vs White Sox .61 .39 12.6 9.4
4/26/2011 vs White Sox .61 .39 13.2 9.8
4/27/2011 vs White Sox .61 .39 13.8 10.2
4/28/2011 vs White Sox .61 .39 14.4 10.6
4/29/2011 vs Blue Jays .65 .35 15.1 10.9
4/30/2011 vs Blue Jays .65 .35 15.7 11.3


xW: Expected win probability
xL: Expected loss probability
aW: Actual win
aL: Actual loss
aW-xW: Actual win minus expected win.  Positive is good, negative is bad
cxW: Cumulative xW
cxL: Cumulative expected losses
caW: Cumulative actual wins
caL: Cumulative actual losses
caW-cxW: Cumulative actual wins minus cumulative expected wins

The key thing here is the home/road split.  The Yankees play 19 of their first 27 games at home, which is a big advantage.  Of course, that then means that at some point in the year they’re going to play a whole bunch of games on the road, which is a disadvantage.  The Yankees play 47 of their first 81 games at home(58%), which means the second half of the season has the potential to be rough.  So, if they want to leave April on a pace that would match their season-long expectations, they really need to go 16-11 or so.  Well, actually 14-10 since they took two of three from Detroit which puts them about 0.2 wins ahead of these expectations.

Since I know someone will ask, Boston has to play 15 of their first 27 games on the road.  In an eerie coincidence they have the exact same log5 expected record.  That’s because their games are against a somewhat weaker group of opponents.  If you sum the projected winning percentages of each team’s opponents on a game by game basis, the Yankees collective opponents have a winning percentage of about .508 and the Red Sox have an opponent winning percentage of .502.  It’s a difference of about a game over a month.  Since the Red Sox got swept in Texas, they’re currently about 1.5 games off their expectations and need to go something like 16-8 through the end of April to catch up.

If the aggregate results of the 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout were accurate, the Red Sox were projected as being about two games better than the Yankees.  Since the Yankees are now 0.2 wins ahead of where they projected to be and Boston’s 1.5 games behind where they’re projected to be, the two teams are essentially on equal footing now.  So it’ll be a dogfight for the wild card behind the surging Baltimore Orioles.

--Posted at 9:41 am by SG / 8 Comments | - (0)




Monday, March 28, 2011

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - American League Edition

Opening Day is just days away, so it’s time to present my annual Diamond Mind Projection blowout.  The idea behind this is to take several projection systems and run the 2011 season multiple times through Diamond Mind Baseball, which I consider to be the most statistically accurate baseball simulator available.

I’ve done a version of this since 2005.  If you want to see how previous runs have gone, here are the links:

2005
2006
2007
2008 Pt 1
2008 Pt 2
2009 AL
2009 NL
2010 AL
2010 NL

As you can see if you look at the prior runs, the results can be hit and miss, but that’s certainly understandable. 

Before I present the projected standings, it’s disclaimer time.

1) Projection systems are inherently limited in their accuracy, particularly for pitchers. We can get a rough idea of how most players will perform by looking at their past histories and how similar players have performed, and factoring in aging and regression, but abilities/talent can change in ways that can’t be forecasted.

2) Playing time distribution in these simulations will not match actual 2011 playing time. I used the rosters and depth charts available at the absolutely awesome MLB Depth Charts as my guide to set these up as realistically as possible, but it’s a possible source of error. Rosters were set up to have 35-40 or so active players per team, and to get a reasonable amount of playing time from the bench and extra pitchers, to more closely model reality. Basically, no players are set to play more than 90% of the time, starting catchers are restricted to at most about 75% of the games, and I’ve made sure teams get a non-trivial amount of starts from their 6-8 starters. The healthier a team is in 2011, the more likely they will be to exceed these projections.

3) We cannot predict injuries and/or roster changes. These simulations do try to adjust projected playing time based on past health issues, so someone like Brandon Webb or Erik Bedard is not expected to make 30 starts. I’ve also included random injuries which may lead to some of the outlying results you see, but there’s no way to account for all the fluctuations that will happen with rosters this season.

4) These are NOT my predictions. These are projections based on running a computer simulation hundreds of thousands of times with projection data that is inherently limited. If your favorite team doesn’t project well, don’t blame me, blame the computers and spreadsheets that projected them. I guess you can blame me for the CAIRO results if you want, otherwise you can take heart in the 2005 White Sox projecting to win 79 games, the 2006 Tigers projecting to win 80, or the 2010 Giants projecting to go 81-81.  These are not meant to tell you how the season is going to play out.  I prefer to think of them more as a starting point for discussion, with a range of something like 10 wins in either direction based on how things actually end up playing out.  You can look at them and argue about why you think some teams will be better or worse.

5) Since this is all automated, I don’t break ties. I simply award all ties a share of either the division title or wild card when it happens which is why you may see some funny decimal places in the standings that follow.

6) While the Diamond Mind engine is pretty good at giving us some variance in player and team performances over multiple simulations, it’s not quite good enough to model reality. Diamond Mind’s standard deviation for team wins is generally in the six to seven win range, but given the possible variations in playing time and in player performance, a better standard deviation is probably closer to the 10 to 13 win range. So I’ve taken the results from each set of projections (which I ran 1,000 times) and then run them through a Monte Carlo simulator 100,000 times. It won’t change the average win totals much, but it will give us a slightly higher standard deviation on team wins which will give us slightly different division and wild card percentages which should be more realistic.

7) These are the averages of hundreds of thousands of simulated seasons, so the results will tend to regress towards the mean. The final standings will not look like this, because they only play the season once. The idea behind is not necessarily to tell us how the final standings will look. Think of it more as a starting point for discussion. You can look at these and think about why you think teams will be better or worse.

OK, so now that the disclaimers are out of the way, onto the projected standings. I am showing W-L to one decimal place to deal with displayed rounding issues and so I don’t get people asking me why the wins and losses don’t add up to exactly 2430, not to imply that these results are that precise.

There’s too much crap to fit it all into one post, so I’ve created a separate post for each projection system I will use this post to show the results of the aggregate for the American League. You can follow the links below to look at the National League’s aggregate results and the individual projection systems’ results.

This year, I’m using five different projection systems.  You can click on each of the links below to get some more information about each system and to see how their projected standings look.

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - National League Edition

Bill James
CAIRO
Marcel
Oliver
PECOTA

In the past I included CHONE and ZiPS.  Unfortunately, CHONE is not available this season and the ZiPS disk came out too late for me to use it.

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 94.4 67.6 817 687 42.1% 17.8% 59.8% 84-104 788-846 661-714 5.4 -1 -57
Yankees 92.4 69.6 812 707 32.8% 18.2% 51.0% 82-102 783-840 680-734 -2.6 -47 14
Rays 86.1 75.9 762 704 16.0% 13.4% 29.4% 76-96 734-789 678-731 -9.9 -40 55
Orioles 78.6 83.4 748 777 6.0% 6.5% 12.5% 69-89 720-775 749-805 12.6 135 -8
Blue Jays 73.9 88.1 686 751 3.1% 3.2% 6.3% 64-84 659-712 724-779 -11.1 -69 23
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Tigers 84.6 77.4 723 693 31.2% 6.4% 37.7% 75-95 696-750 667-719 3.6 -28 -50
Twins 84.4 77.6 767 733 30.7% 6.6% 37.3% 74-94 739-794 706-760 -9.6 -14 62
White Sox 82.8 79.2 723 721 25.6% 6.3% 31.9% 73-93 696-750 694-748 -5.2 -20 -24
Indians 74.3 87.7 720 779 8.8% 2.6% 11.4% 64-84 693-747 751-807 5.3 74 27
Royals 68.4 93.6 680 806 3.7% 1.2% 4.9% 58-78 654-706 777-834 1.4 4 -39
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 88.0 74.0 746 680 45.7% 5.9% 51.6% 78-98 719-774 654-707 -2.0 -41 -7
Athletics 84.6 77.4 681 646 31.3% 6.1% 37.4% 75-95 655-707 620-671 3.6 18 20
Angels 77.9 84.1 666 687 14.9% 3.6% 18.5% 68-88 640-691 661-713 -2.1 -15 -15
Mariners 73.6 88.4 639 711 8.1% 2.2% 10.3% 64-84 614-665 685-738 12.6 126 13

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W Std: Wins range within one standard deviation
RS Std: Runs scored within one standard deviation
RA Std: Runs allowed within one standard deviation
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

One thing I need to note, since it may not be obvious. Those standings are NOT saying the Tigers are going to win the AL Central with 84.6 wins. They are saying the Tigers projected to win the AL Central most frequently(31.2% of the time) and that they averaged 84.6 wins.  Those are two separate things. In order to actually win the division, the AL Central winner had to win 90 games on average.

Here are the average wins for each place in the AL, plus the wild card.

Division AL East
Place # W
1 98
2 91
3 86
4 79
5 72
Division AL Central
Place # W
1 90
2 84
3 80
4 74
5 67
Division AL West
Place # W
1 91
2 84
3 78
4 71
AL Wild Card 92

Regular readers know that this whole exercise is an excuse to make fancy pie charts, so here’s how the AL division title percentages look for the aggregate in pie chart form.

I’ll run through the divisions and teams briefly:

AL East

Boston Red Sox
Average Projected Wins: 94
Division Title Percentage: 42.1%
Wild Card Percentage: 17.8%
Playoff Percentage: 59.8%

Boston projects as the best team in baseball, but they don’t project to be some 110 win juggernaut.  They obviously added a couple of nice pieces in Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, but they lost two very important players from last year’s team in Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez.  The bulk of Boston’s projected improvement is based on the assumptions of better health from some of their key players who missed significant time last year, and on some bounce back years from some of their pitchers who struggled. 

Why they might be better than projected: There’s little doubt that Adrian Gonzalez has moved from a park that suppresses offense significantly to one that boosts offense.  You never know exactly how an individual player’s performance will be affected by moving to a new park, so there’s a chance that his projections may not fully capture how much he’ll benefit.  So if Gonzalez is able to take more advantage of Fenway than expected, he may exceed his projections
In addition to that, while most of the projections expect some bounce back from Josh Beckett, John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka, any one of them or all of them might be able to outperform their projections.
They may also get better than expected performance out of shortstop if Jed Lowrie can stay healthy and take away some of Marco Scutaro’s time.

Why they might be worse than projected: You shouldn’t read too much into spring training performance, but Beckett has looked pretty shaky.  If he’s not healthy or he’s lost some zip even a modest bounce back may be asking too much.  Kevin Youkilis hasn’t played a lot of 3B over the past two years, and there’s a chance his defense there might be lacking, although he’s got good numbers at 3B in his career.  They may also have trouble with lefties in the late innings with their bullpen if Dennys Reyes and/or Hideki Okajima are ineffective, although Daniel Bard, Bobby Jenks and Jonathan Papelbon have generally been pretty effective against them.  Their lineup may be a bit more susceptible to LHP.

New York Yankees
Average Projected Wins: 92
Division Title Percentage: 32.8%
Wild Card Percentage: 18.2%
Playoff Percentage: 51.0%

The Yankees are probably not as good as Boston, although with the error bars in any projection a gap of two wins is effectively not much of a gap.  At least one NL team’s scouts seem to think the Yankees are better.

Why they might be better than projected: I’ve assumed that Jesus Montero will only get about 200 PA, but if he’s able to exceed that and play passable defense the Yankees can probably get a few more runs out of him than they would out of Russell Martin and/or Francisco Cervelli. 

It’s not likely, but I don’t think anyone would be shocked to see Alex Rodriguez put up an MVP-caliber season, which is not something he’s projected to do.  He’s tearing the cover off the ball in spring training, although that’s not necessarily predictive.

The Yankees’ rotation has a lot of uncertainty in it, but but if A.J. Burnett can pitch closer to how he did in 2009 and they get serviceable pitching out of Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia they’ll be in in pretty good shape.  They’ve also got some intriguing arms that are long on potential in AA and AAA that may end up helping them out as the season proceeds.

Why they might be worse than projected: Derek Jeter may set the all-time record for grounding into double plays.  The lineup looks strong, but they’re not particularly young and there’s a chance they’ll get worse than expected performances/missed time from some of their key players and they don’t have a ton of depth behind the starters.  Jorge Posada’s bat would probably still play well at catcher, but it’s uncertain how well it’ll play as a DH.  The uncertainty that may help the Yankee rotation out-perform their projections could also cause it to crash and burn.

Tampa Bay Rays
Average Projected Wins: 86
Division Title Percentage: 16.0%
Wild Card Percentage: 13.4%
Playoff Percentage: 29.4%

The Rays have won the AL East in two of the past three seasons.  Despite that, the “experts” aren’t expecting a lot out of Tampa Bay since they lost their entire bullpen and Carl Crawford.  Of course, those experts should probably take a look at how they built that bullpen in the first place.  Most were traded for at a minimal cost or signed relatively cheaply and there’s no reason to think they can’t cobble a similarly good pen together in 2011. 
Why they might be better than projected: They’ve got youth on their side with a lot of their key players.  They also have a lot of flexibility with players who can play several positions and hit well, which should help mitigate any injuries or poor performances.  It’s looking less likely that B.J. Upton’s going to turn into a superstar, but you never know.

Why they might be worse than projected: Some of their younger players like Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson may have some growing pains, and some of their hopes for contending are contingent on Ben Zobrist hitting a bit better than he did in 2010 coming off a back injury. 

Baltimore Orioles
Average Projected Wins: 79
Division Title Percentage: 6.0%
Wild Card Percentage: 6.5%
Playoff Percentage: 12.5%

The Orioles may have improved more than any other team in baseball, at least if you compare their projections to their 2010 performance.  Their lineup looks pretty good, and Brian Matusz looks like he’s on his way to becoming one of the best young pitchers in baseball.  The Orioles played very well after Buck Showalter took over, although that in and of itself is not necessarily predictive.

Why they might be better than projected: They could see better than expected performances out of Matt Wieters, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis, all of who have been somewhat disappointing relative to expectations so far.  If they can get good performances out of some of their non-Matusz young starters like Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergesen and Chris Tilman and can get a reasonable number of starts out of Justin Duchscherer their pitching could surprise.

Why they might be worse than projected: Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee have seen their best days, but still project decently, so if they underperform a bit that could hurt.  There’s a non-zero chance they get nothing out of Duchscherer and some of their young starters struggle.

Toronto Blue Jays
Average Projected Wins: 74
Division Title Percentage: 3.1%
Wild Card Percentage: 3.2%
Playoff Percentage: 6.3%

The Jays projections seem low to me, although I guess that’s largely a function of playing in a tough division.

Why they might be better than projected: Jose Bautista is probably a completely different player than he was in 2008 and the first five months of 2009, but the projections don’t know that.  If he’s closer to 2010 Bautista than he’s projected to be that will make the offense better.  The subpar performances of Adam Lind, Travis Snyder and Aaron Hill in 2010 may be hurting their projections as well.  They’ve got some interesting young arms in the rotation who could also be better than expected.

Why they might be worse than projected: The offense doesn’t look great, particularly if Edwin Encarnacion is the primary DH and Juan Rivera is the primary LF.  The defense may be a bit less than great with Jose Bautista at 3B and Adam Lind at 1B.

AL Central
Detroit Tigers
Average Projected Wins: 85
Division Title Percentage: 31.2%
Wild Card Percentage: 6.4%
Playoff Percentage: 37.7%

A busy offseason has vaulted Detroit to the top of the projected AL Central.  They’ve probably got the best pitcher in their division in Justin Verlander and one of the top hitters in baseball with Miguel Cabrera.

Why they might be better than projected: The Tigers are heavily right-handed which is a benefit in Comerica park.  Rick Porcello’s raw numbers looked worse in 2010 than they were in 2009, but his FIP was actually about 0.40 runs better, so he may pitch better than a projection that doesn’t account for that would think. 

Why they might be worse than projected: There’s not a lot of depth here.  An injury to one of their front-line players like Cabrera or Verlander or Victor Martinez would be tough to overcome.  They have some good defenders but their overall defense doesn’t look all that great.  They’re counting on Phil Coke making the transition to the rotation and that’s a risk in terms of both performance and innings.

Minnesota Twins
Average Projected Wins: 84
Division Title Percentage: 30.7%
Wild Card Percentage: 6.6%
Playoff Percentage: 37.3%

The Twins return essentially the same team that won the AL Central in 2010, minus J.J. Hardy but plus Joe Nathan.

Why they might be better than projected: Francisco Liriano had a very good year in 2010 and if you look at his peripherals it looks even better.  However, his projections include a less than great 2009.  If the reason for that 2009 was due to limitations as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery then his projections probably underrate him.  Getting a full season out of Justin Morneau may also help, as I’ve assumed he’ll only play about 75% of the games due to his concussion issues.

Why they might be worse than projected: Their outfield defense isn’t very good, particularly Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer.  While most projections try to account for defense when projecting pitching, they may not be penalzing the Twins enough.  Morneau may miss a non-trivial amount of time, which would also obviously hurt.  They’ve got Alexi Casilla penciled in as the starting SS, but he’s only played 233 innings there in his career so he may not be up for the task.  They’re also counting on Tsuyohsi Nishioka at 2B, and it’s tough to know exactly how his game will translate from Japan.

Chicago White Sox
Average Projected Wins: 83
Division Title Percentage: 25.6%
Wild Card Percentage: 6.3%
Playoff Percentage: 31.9%

The White Sox added Adam Dunn, who should be a huge upgrade over what they got out of DH last year.  They’ll also have a full season of Edwin Jackson.

Why they might be better than projected:  The biggest reason I can think of is Edwin Jackson.  He was a completely different pitcher for the White Sox that he’s been at any point in his career, although it was only 11 starts.  His BB/9 was 2.16 compared to 3.86 career, and his K/9 rate jumped to 9.24 compared to 6.68.  If that was due to Don Cooper’s coaching and not just a nice little run that was due more to luck than skill he could be a lot more valuable than expected.  It’ll be interesting to see how Gordon Beckham does this year, as he fell off significantly from his 2009.

Why they might be worse than projected: The White Sox have generally been one of the healthiest teams in baseball, but Jake Peavy is a major injury risk based on his past history and the drop-off after him is pretty steep.  They’ve got Brent Morel slated as the starting 3B.  His defensive reputation is quite good, but his bat’s still an uncertain proposition.

Cleveland Indians
Average Projected Wins: 74
Division Title Percentage: 8.8%
Wild Card Percentage: 2.6%
Playoff Percentage: 11.4%

The Indians are probably the youngest team in baseball.  They return most of a team that was pretty bad in 2010.

Why they might be better than projected: Grady Sizemore’s trying to make his way back from injury.  Prior to that he was one of the best players in baseball and if he’s able to recapture most of that and play regularly it’ll help.  Their rotation is young and that may help them pitch better than projected. 

Why they might be worse than projected: Aside from Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana (and a healthy Sizemore), their position players aren’t particularly great.  It’s tough to see them scoring a lot of runs as presently constituted, and their defense last year was pretty lousy.  A repeat of that could make their run prevention worse than projected.

Kansas City Royals
Average Projected Wins: 68
Division Title Percentage: 3.7%
Wild Card Percentage: 1.2%
Playoff Percentage: 4.9%

With Zach Greinke now in Milwaukee, it’s looking like another painful year for the Royals in 2011, but their future looks a lot brighter.

Why they might be better than projected: The Royals might have the best farm system in baseball and some of those prospects may start contributing this year. 

Why they might be worse than projected: The Royals are probably not even going to sniff contention, so it may make sense to make moves with the future in mind that could hurt them in the short-term.  The package they got back for Greinke doesn’t look all that great, and right now it looks like they are going to have Jeff Francoeur hitting in the middle of the lineup, something that Braves and Mets fans probably get hives about.

AL West
Texas Rangers
Average Projected Wins: 88
Division Title Percentage: 45.7%
Wild Card Percentage: 31.3%
Playoff Percentage: 51.6%

2010’s AL Champions look like the class of the AL West. 

Why they might be better than projected: I’ve seen it expressed in more than one place that the Rangers need to replace Cliff Lee and that losing him is going to hurt, but is losing 109 innings of 3.98 ERA that big of a deal? 
The defensive upgrade from Michael Young to Adrian Beltre at 3B is huge on paper, but projections may understate it.  Derek Holland has the stuff to be better than projected and that would slot in nicely behind C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis.  I’ve restricted Brandon Webb to about 10 starts, so if he can make more than that and pitch as projected they’ll benefit.

Why they might be worse than projected: 2010 was Wilson’s first full season as a starter in the majors, so I suppose there’s some risk that he breaks down at some point.  Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler have both shown problems with staying healthy at times and losing either of them for a significant amount of time (particularly Hamilton) would be a big blow.  They may get nothing out of Webb. 

Oakland Athletics
Average Projected Wins: 85
Division Title Percentage: 31.3%
Wild Card Percentage: 6.1%
Playoff Percentage: 37.4%

Despite scoring 37 runs more than they allowed, the A’s finshed 2010 at 81-81.  The projections expect them to be less unlucky in 2011 and pick up those 3-4 missing wins.

Why they might be better than projected: They should be a pretty good defensive team, which may not be fully captured in their pitching projections. 

Why they might be worse than projected: They’ve got some health concerns in their pitching staff, and their offense isn’t great. A lot of their pitchers had ERAs well below their FIPs/xFIPs and may regress more than projected, although some of that difference is probably due to park.

LA Angels
Average Projected Wins: 78
Division Title Percentage: 14.9%
Wild Card Percentage: 3.6%
Playoff Percentage: 18.5%

A bad offseason following their first losing season since 2003 has the Angels projected behind Texas and Oakland.  However, they’ll have a full season of Dan Haren and the return of Kendrys Morales as upgrades.

Why they might be better than projected: An outfield of Vernon Wells in LF, Peter Bourjos in CF and Torii Hunter in RF could be the best defensive OF in baseball.  That could be particularly beneficial to Jered Weaver who is a fly ball pitcher.  At this point it looks like Scott Kazmir the budding ace has morphed into Scott Kazmir the replacement level pitcher, but he’s still young and might be able to recapture some of his former glory.

Why they might be worse than projected: Their catching situation stinks, and they don’t have much depth behind their starters.  Fernando Rodney as closer seems like a good way to lose some close games late.

Seattle Mariners
Average Projected Wins: 74
Division Title Percentage: 8.1%
Wild Card Percentage: 2.2%
Playoff Percentage: 10.3%

Picked by many to be in contention in the AL West in 2010, the Mariners instead lost 101 games.  They scored an abysmal 513 runs and actually over-performed their pythagorean W-L by four games.  Of course, they weren’t really that bad, they just had a lot of things go wrong which means they should be better in 2011 just by dumb luck, although they still don’t look like a contender.

Why they might be better than projected: Erik Bedard looks healthy, but I’ve assumed he’ll only pitch about 15 games.  If they can get a full season out of him they’ll be a bit better. 

Why they might be worse than projected: Their offense still looks pretty lousy, and if they’ve decided they can’t contend they may try and flip some of their players for prospects.


For the NL edition, click here.

And there you have it, the 2011 Diamond Mind projection blowout.  Results are not guaranteed.

--Posted at 6:59 am by SG / 55 Comments | - (0)



The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Oliver Edition

Available from the THT Forecasts at The Hardball Times, Oliver is another projection system with Marcel at its heart, although it uses MLEs to try and better project minor leaguers and it also projects defense.  They also run their own projected standings, which are available here.  Like with PECOTA, these projected standings will differ from the official Oliver forecasts at THT, primarily due to differences in playing time estimates.  Here’s how my version of Oliver projected standings look.

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 95.4 66.6 813 672 46.5% 18.3% 64.8% 85-105 784-841 646-697 6.4 -5 -72
Yankees 93.5 68.5 801 682 36.6% 19.1% 55.7% 83-103 773-829 656-708 -1.5 -58 -11
Rays 83.2 78.8 787 759 10.7% 10.6% 21.3% 73-93 759-815 732-787 -12.8 -15 110
Orioles 75.8 86.2 744 796 4.0% 4.9% 8.9% 66-86 717-772 768-825 9.8 131 11
Blue Jays 72.5 89.5 679 763 2.2% 2.6% 4.7% 63-83 653-705 736-791 -12.5 -76 35
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Twins 86.0 76.0 803 754 32.7% 8.2% 40.8% 76-96 775-832 727-781 -8.0 22 83
Tigers 85.9 76.1 723 676 33.0% 7.3% 40.2% 76-96 696-750 650-702 4.9 -28 -67
White Sox 82.9 79.1 725 724 24.5% 6.8% 31.3% 73-93 698-752 697-751 -5.1 -18 -21
Indians 74.3 87.7 746 808 7.2% 2.5% 9.7% 64-84 719-773 779-836 5.3 100 56
Royals 67.4 94.6 693 831 2.6% 1.0% 3.5% 57-77 667-719 802-860 0.4 17 -14
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 89.5 72.5 741 664 48.9% 6.0% 54.9% 80-100 714-769 638-690 -0.5 -46 -23
Athletics 84.9 77.1 713 668 28.5% 6.6% 35.1% 75-95 686-740 642-694 3.9 50 42
Mariners 76.9 85.1 683 728 11.4% 3.3% 14.7% 67-87 657-709 701-755 15.9 170 30
Angels 76.6 85.4 675 705 11.2% 3.0% 14.3% 67-87 649-701 679-732 -3.4 -6 3
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 90.4 71.6 729 646 36.3% 11.0% 47.4% 80-100 702-756 620-671 -6.6 -43 6
Braves 88.9 73.1 761 681 32.9% 11.0% 43.9% 79-99 734-789 655-707 -2.1 23 52
Marlins 82.3 79.7 722 705 14.5% 7.1% 21.6% 72-92 695-749 678-731 2.3 3 -12
Mets 81.8 80.2 750 748 13.0% 6.2% 19.2% 72-92 723-777 721-776 2.8 94 96
Nationals 71.3 90.7 688 778 3.3% 1.7% 5.0% 61-81 662-714 750-805 2.3 33 36
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Reds 90.2 71.8 721 642 45.5% 8.9% 54.4% 80-100 694-748 617-668 -0.8 -69 -43
Cardinals 83.1 78.9 764 744 22.0% 9.1% 31.1% 73-93 736-791 717-771 -2.9 28 103
Brewers 82.4 79.6 720 704 17.7% 7.2% 24.9% 72-92 693-746 678-731 5.4 -30 -100
Cubs 78.2 83.8 680 701 10.8% 4.9% 15.8% 68-88 654-707 675-728 3.2 -5 -66
Pirates 67.8 94.2 687 815 2.7% 1.3% 3.9% 58-78 661-714 786-843 10.8 100 -51
Astros 63.8 98.2 576 728 1.3% 0.6% 1.9% 54-74 552-600 701-755 -12.2 -35 -1
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Giants 91.2 70.8 704 617 45.2% 9.0% 54.2% 81-101 678-731 592-642 -0.8 7 34
Rockies 84.3 77.7 727 695 22.1% 8.4% 30.5% 74-94 700-754 668-721 1.3 -43 -22
Dodgers 84.2 77.8 689 660 22.9% 9.0% 31.9% 74-94 663-716 634-686 4.2 22 -32
Padres 73.5 88.5 688 765 5.6% 2.6% 8.1% 63-83 662-714 738-793 -16.5 23 184
Diamondbacks 72.0 90.0 650 726 4.2% 2.1% 6.3% 62-82 625-676 699-753 7.0 -63 -110

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W Std: Wins range within one standard deviation
RS Std: Runs scored within one standard deviation
RA Std: Runs allowed within one standard deviation
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

--Posted at 6:55 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)



The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - PECOTA Edition

Originally developed by Nate Silver, who’s moved on to bigger things, PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus has in the past been considered one the best projection systems.  Since Silver left they have had a few issues, but it’s now in the hands of Colin Wyers who is one of the best baseball analysts around, so I’d expect it to be pretty good again.  Baseball Prospectus runs their own projected standings, so these should NOT be considered what PECOTA is projecting.  It’s more what PECOTA is projecting using my depth charts for all the other projections.  The difference shouldn’t be more than 1-2 games in either direction for the most part.

Here’s how this version of the projected standings shape up.

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 94.1 67.9 809 681 41.1% 17.7% 58.8% 84-104 781-837 655-707 5.1 -9 -63
Yankees 92.1 69.9 835 730 31.0% 18.1% 49.0% 82-102 806-864 703-757 -2.9 -24 37
Rays 87.0 75.0 765 700 17.5% 15.0% 32.5% 77-97 737-792 674-727 -9.0 -37 51
Orioles 80.0 82.0 752 767 7.2% 7.7% 14.9% 70-90 725-780 740-795 14.0 139 -18
Blue Jays 75.4 86.6 690 742 3.2% 4.2% 7.4% 65-85 664-716 715-769 -9.6 -65 14
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Tigers 83.4 78.6 720 700 29.0% 6.0% 34.9% 73-93 693-747 673-726 2.4 -31 -43
Twins 83.2 78.8 764 748 26.3% 5.7% 32.0% 73-93 736-791 721-776 -10.8 -17 77
White Sox 83.1 78.9 746 745 27.9% 6.2% 34.1% 73-93 719-773 718-772 -4.9 3 0
Indians 76.4 85.6 734 769 12.3% 3.7% 15.9% 66-86 707-761 741-797 7.4 88 17
Royals 69.7 92.3 705 816 4.5% 1.3% 5.8% 60-80 678-732 787-844 2.7 29 -29
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 85.8 76.2 740 693 41.7% 4.8% 46.5% 76-96 713-767 666-719 -4.2 -47 6
Athletics 83.0 79.0 664 646 31.1% 4.9% 35.9% 73-93 638-689 620-671 2.0 1 20
Angels 78.5 83.5 636 651 18.4% 3.3% 21.7% 69-89 611-662 625-676 -1.5 -45 -51
Mariners 72.7 89.3 622 704 8.8% 1.6% 10.4% 63-83 597-647 677-730 11.7 109 6
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 91.0 71.0 731 638 42.4% 10.6% 53.0% 81-101 704-758 612-663 -6.0 -41 -2
Braves 87.0 75.0 716 658 29.5% 11.1% 40.6% 77-97 690-743 633-684 -4.0 -22 29
Marlins 81.2 80.8 692 684 14.8% 7.0% 21.8% 71-91 665-718 658-710 1.2 -27 -33
Mets 78.8 83.2 717 744 10.1% 5.3% 15.4% 69-89 690-744 717-771 -0.2 61 92
Nationals 70.0 92.0 661 760 3.1% 1.6% 4.7% 60-80 635-687 732-787 1.0 6 18
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Cardinals 84.2 77.8 738 707 30.0% 7.1% 37.1% 74-94 711-765 680-734 -1.8 2 66
Brewers 82.6 79.4 723 707 22.0% 6.5% 28.5% 73-93 696-750 680-734 5.6 -27 -97
Cubs 81.3 80.7 729 723 20.5% 5.6% 26.2% 71-91 702-756 696-750 6.3 44 -44
Reds 81.3 80.7 718 715 20.2% 6.2% 26.4% 71-91 692-745 688-742 -9.7 -72 30
Pirates 70.2 91.8 677 780 4.4% 1.7% 6.1% 60-80 651-703 752-807 13.2 90 -86
Astros 67.0 95.0 569 692 2.9% 1.0% 3.9% 57-77 545-593 666-719 -9.0 -42 -37
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Giants 89.5 72.5 692 620 38.4% 10.3% 48.8% 80-100 666-719 595-645 -2.5 -5 37
Dodgers 84.9 77.1 670 642 25.0% 8.8% 33.8% 75-95 644-696 617-667 4.9 3 -50
Rockies 82.4 79.6 792 774 17.5% 7.9% 25.5% 72-92 764-820 746-801 -0.6 22 57
Padres 79.9 82.1 649 671 12.6% 6.1% 18.7% 70-90 624-675 645-697 -10.1 -16 90
Diamondbacks 74.5 87.5 665 717 6.4% 3.2% 9.6% 65-85 639-691 690-744 9.5 -48 -119

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W Std: Wins range within one standard deviation
RS Std: Runs scored within one standard deviation
RA Std: Runs allowed within one standard deviation
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

--Posted at 6:50 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)



The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Marcel Edition

Marcel was developed by Tangotiger of The Book fame.

As an aside, Tango is running a community playing time forecast if you want to help him out.

Back to Marcel, although it’s considered the most basic projection system, it is generally as good as any other system since added complexity really hasn’t shown to add all that much accuracy over Marcel, and the principles behind it are solid and should be the basis for any good forecasting system.  Here’s how it sees things looking in 2011.

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 91.6 70.4 841 734 40.0% 14.4% 54.4% 82-102 812-870 707-762 2.6 23 -10
Yankees 89.0 73.0 785 711 28.5% 14.1% 42.5% 79-99 757-813 685-738 -6.0 -74 18
Rays 85.3 76.7 747 699 19.2% 11.5% 30.7% 75-95 720-775 673-726 -10.7 -55 50
Orioles 78.8 83.2 754 780 8.7% 6.2% 14.9% 69-89 726-781 752-808 12.8 141 -5
Blue Jays 72.4 89.6 691 768 3.7% 2.6% 6.3% 62-82 665-717 740-796 -12.6 -64 40
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Twins 85.7 76.3 757 709 34.3% 7.2% 41.5% 76-96 729-784 682-736 -8.3 -24 38
White Sox 83.5 78.5 714 701 26.3% 7.2% 33.5% 73-93 687-740 674-727 -4.5 -29 -44
Tigers 83.3 78.7 717 696 26.3% 7.6% 33.9% 73-93 690-744 669-722 2.3 -34 -47
Indians 75.1 86.9 693 747 9.8% 3.0% 12.9% 65-85 667-720 720-775 6.1 47 -5
Royals 68.4 93.6 659 783 3.3% 1.2% 4.5% 58-78 633-685 755-811 1.4 -17 -62
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 88.7 73.3 781 710 42.9% 8.2% 51.2% 79-99 753-809 684-737 -1.3 -6 23
Athletics 85.6 76.4 679 644 30.2% 7.8% 38.0% 76-96 653-705 618-669 4.6 16 18
Angels 79.9 82.1 697 703 16.0% 5.6% 21.6% 70-90 670-723 676-729 -0.1 16 1
Mariners 76.7 85.3 634 673 10.8% 3.5% 14.3% 67-87 609-659 647-699 15.7 121 -25
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 87.7 74.3 715 654 34.9% 9.4% 44.3% 78-98 689-742 628-679 -9.3 -57 14
Braves 85.2 76.9 695 654 27.3% 9.0% 36.3% 75-95 668-721 628-679 -5.8 -43 25
Marlins 81.6 80.4 694 685 17.2% 7.0% 24.2% 72-92 667-720 659-711 1.6 -25 -32
Mets 79.9 82.1 670 679 13.9% 5.6% 19.5% 70-90 644-696 653-705 0.9 14 27
Nationals 73.8 88.2 655 719 6.7% 3.1% 9.8% 64-84 629-680 692-746 4.8 0 -23
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Reds 83.7 78.3 740 712 27.6% 8.0% 35.6% 74-94 713-767 686-739 -7.3 -50 27
Cardinals 82.3 79.7 732 724 24.5% 7.5% 32.0% 72-92 705-759 698-751 -3.7 -4 83
Cubs 80.5 81.5 718 721 18.7% 6.3% 25.0% 71-91 691-744 694-747 5.5 33 -46
Brewers 79.3 82.7 710 728 15.1% 5.3% 20.4% 69-89 683-736 701-755 2.3 -40 -76
Pirates 74.5 87.5 679 736 10.0% 3.3% 13.4% 64-84 653-705 709-763 17.5 92 -130
Astros 69.6 92.4 609 715 4.1% 1.6% 5.8% 60-80 585-634 688-742 -6.4 -2 -14
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Dodgers 85.3 76.7 657 624 28.4% 8.8% 37.2% 75-95 631-682 599-649 5.3 -10 -68
Giants 84.3 77.7 647 620 24.8% 7.9% 32.7% 74-94 622-673 595-645 -7.7 -50 37
Rockies 83.3 78.7 764 741 23.5% 7.3% 30.7% 73-93 736-792 713-768 0.3 -6 24
Padres 79.8 82.2 616 633 14.6% 6.4% 21.0% 70-90 592-641 608-658 -10.2 -49 52
Diamondbacks 75.4 86.6 686 732 8.8% 3.5% 12.3% 65-85 660-712 705-759 10.4 -27 -104


W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W Std: Wins range within one standard deviation
RS Std: Runs scored within one standard deviation
RA Std: Runs allowed within one standard deviation
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

--Posted at 6:46 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)



The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CAIRO Edition

CAIRO is my own in-house projection system, which is based on Marcel with the following changes.

1) I use the prior four years of data, whereas Marcel uses only the prior three years.
2) I make adjustments for park, which Marcel does not do.
3) I use major league equivalencies for players who’ve played in the minors, which Marcel does not do.
4) I account for the defense behind a pitcher in their prior seasons as well as in projecting them for the next season, which Marcel does not do.
5) Marcel regresses everyone towards league average, I also regress towards different additional means based on player age and primary position.

You can download the latest version of the 2011 CAIRO projections at this link.

Here’s how CAIRO projects the 2011 MLB standings.

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 95.8 66.2 826 684 42.8% 18.7% 61.5% 86-106 798-855 658-710 6.8 8 -60
Yankees 93.1 68.9 821 713 31.7% 19.4% 51.1% 83-103 792-849 686-739 -1.9 -38 20
Rays 87.6 74.4 734 660 17.8% 14.9% 32.7% 78-98 707-761 634-686 -8.4 -68 11
Orioles 77.2 84.8 746 790 4.3% 5.3% 9.5% 67-87 718-773 762-818 11.2 133 5
Blue Jays 75.8 86.2 689 737 3.5% 3.9% 7.4% 66-86 663-716 710-764 -9.2 -66 9
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Tigers 84.3 77.7 713 696 34.4% 5.7% 40.1% 74-94 686-739 670-723 3.3 -38 -47
White Sox 83.1 78.9 718 712 30.7% 5.5% 36.3% 73-93 691-745 686-739 -4.9 -25 -33
Twins 81.7 80.3 747 732 25.2% 5.3% 30.5% 72-92 720-775 705-759 -12.3 -34 61
Indians 71.4 90.6 707 788 6.4% 1.7% 8.1% 61-81 681-734 760-817 2.4 61 36
Royals 66.6 95.4 661 803 3.3% 0.7% 4.0% 57-77 636-687 774-831 -0.4 -15 -42
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 89.3 72.7 730 652 48.1% 6.7% 54.9% 79-99 703-757 626-677 -0.7 -57 -35
Athletics 85.5 76.5 669 626 32.1% 6.3% 38.4% 76-96 643-695 601-651 4.5 6 0
Angels 77.7 84.3 659 686 14.1% 3.9% 18.0% 68-88 633-685 659-712 -2.3 -22 -16
Mariners 72.1 89.9 619 703 5.6% 1.9% 7.6% 62-82 594-644 676-729 11.1 106 5
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 92.8 69.2 742 630 45.0% 10.6% 55.6% 83-103 714-769 605-655 -4.2 -30 -10
Braves 86.6 75.4 736 674 25.6% 10.7% 36.3% 77-97 709-763 648-700 -4.4 -2 45
Marlins 82.8 79.2 677 655 15.3% 7.7% 22.9% 73-93 651-703 630-681 2.8 -42 -62
Mets 79.0 83.0 662 681 8.9% 5.1% 14.0% 69-89 637-688 655-707 0.0 6 29
Nationals 74.1 87.9 653 714 5.2% 2.8% 8.0% 64-84 627-679 687-740 5.1 -2 -28
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Reds 86.9 75.1 749 697 31.1% 10.2% 41.3% 77-97 721-776 670-723 -4.1 -41 12
Brewers 86.0 76.0 754 702 26.3% 9.0% 35.3% 76-96 727-782 675-728 9.0 4 -102
Cardinals 85.3 76.7 748 712 28.4% 9.1% 37.5% 75-95 721-775 685-738 -0.7 12 71
Cubs 78.4 83.6 733 755 10.7% 5.2% 15.9% 68-88 706-760 728-783 3.4 48 -12
Pirates 66.7 95.3 673 805 2.1% 1.1% 3.2% 57-77 647-699 777-834 9.7 86 -61
Astros 65.3 96.7 598 749 1.4% 0.9% 2.3% 55-75 573-622 721-776 -10.7 -13 20
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Giants 87.2 74.9 704 652 35.7% 7.2% 42.9% 77-97 678-731 627-678 -4.8 7 69
Rockies 83.1 78.9 769 749 22.3% 6.6% 29.0% 73-93 742-797 721-776 0.1 -1 32
Padres 81.1 80.9 651 652 18.4% 5.8% 24.2% 71-91 626-677 626-677 -8.9 -14 71
Dodgers 80.9 81.1 676 679 17.8% 6.0% 23.8% 71-91 650-702 653-705 0.9 9 -13
Diamondbacks 72.4 89.6 695 773 5.8% 2.0% 7.8% 62-82 669-721 745-801 7.4 -18 -63

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W Std: Wins range within one standard deviation
RS Std: Runs scored within one standard deviation
RA Std: Runs allowed within one standard deviation
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

--Posted at 6:35 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)




Thursday, February 10, 2011

CAIRO v0.6 and Still Too Early 2011 MLB Projected Standings

I’ve updated the 2011 CAIRO projections to version 0.6 and have uploaded them to the site.  They can be downloaded at the link below:

Cairo_2011_v0.6.zip

I’ve basically just updated rosters again and fixed a few issues.  I’ve also added a projected standings page.

I probably will not do another update until about a week before the season starts, unless there’s some reason to.

Speaking of projected standings, it’s been about six weeks since I posted my extremely early projected standings for 2011 so here’s an update.

I suppose this is where I should tell you that it’s still too early to treat these as gospel and we still have position battles and rosters to finalize, as well as playing time allocation and injuries to deal with, but that doesn’t seem to prevent some people from taking them seriously and insulting my mother anyway, so I won’t.

I used the depth charts from MLB Depth Charts.com as of February 8, but I also included some playing time from the benches as well as some of the pitchers who aren’t necessarily expected to make their teams out of spring training but who will likely be needed at some point.

Date 2/8/2011
Iterations 10,000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 96.2 65.8 831 687 45.6% 17.6% 63.2% 7.2 13 -57
Yankees 92.1 69.9 821 726 28.8% 19.4% 48.2% -2.9 -38 33
Rays 87.9 74.1 737 663 17.3% 14.6% 31.9% -8.1 -65 14
Blue Jays 77.2 84.8 709 738 4.2% 5.0% 9.2% -7.8 -46 10
Orioles 76.9 85.1 739 788 4.2% 4.8% 9.0% 10.9 126 3
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
White Sox 84.3 77.7 718 704 36.1% 5.7% 41.8% -3.7 -25 -41
Twins 82.3 79.7 744 727 26.9% 5.0% 31.9% -11.7 -37 56
Tigers 81.9 80.1 714 697 27.7% 5.5% 33.2% 0.9 -37 -46
Indians 70.6 91.4 711 804 6.2% 1.4% 7.6% 1.6 65 52
Royals 66.2 95.8 658 806 3.1% 0.7% 3.8% -0.8 -18 -39
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 92.7 69.3 728 626 57.6% 6.6% 64.2% 2.7 -59 -61
Athletics 85.8 76.2 667 620 28.9% 8.8% 37.7% 4.8 4 -6
Angels 77.1 84.9 647 678 10.1% 3.6% 13.7% -2.9 -34 -24
Mariners 70.4 91.6 606 705 3.4% 1.3% 4.7% 9.4 93 7
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 93.7 68.3 735 617 48.4% 10.4% 58.8% -3.3 -37 -23
Braves 87.2 74.8 735 665 26.1% 10.3% 36.4% -3.8 -3 36
Mets 80.1 81.9 667 678 10.3% 6.0% 16.3% 1.1 11 26
Marlins 79.3 82.7 668 679 9.5% 5.3% 14.8% -0.7 -51 -38
Nationals 74.9 87.1 643 698 5.7% 3.3% 9.0% 5.9 -12 -44
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Reds 87.2 74.8 746 689 31.8% 10.0% 41.8% -3.8 -44 4
Cardinals 86.6 75.4 744 689 31.0% 9.9% 40.9% 0.6 8 48
Brewers 86.6 75.4 746 688 26.5% 9.4% 35.9% 9.6 -4 -116
Cubs 75.8 86.2 722 768 7.3% 3.8% 11.1% 0.8 37 1
Astros 66.9 95.1 604 740 1.5% 1.0% 2.5% -9.1 -7 11
Pirates 66.6 95.4 663 796 1.9% 1.1% 3.0% 9.6 76 -70
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Giants 86.9 75.1 698 649 32.1% 8.2% 40.2% -5.1 1 66
Rockies 83.4 78.6 758 736 23.3% 7.0% 30.2% 0.4 -12 19
Padres 83.1 78.9 648 638 21.6% 6.5% 28.1% -6.9 -17 57
Dodgers 82.2 79.8 673 665 19.7% 6.7% 26.4% 2.2 6 -27
Diamondbacks 69.5 92.5 672 775 3.3% 1.2% 4.5% 4.5 -41 -61


W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here’s a comparison of this set of projections compared to the last ones:

TM 28-Dec 28-Dec 28-Dec 28-Dec 9-Feb 9-Feb 9-Feb 9-Feb Diff Diff Diff Diff
W Div WC PL W Div WC PL W Div WC PL
Angels 78 15.5% 3.2% 18.7% 77 10.1% 3.6% 13.7% -1 -5.4% 0.4% -5.0%
Astros 66 1.1% 1.0% 2.1% 67 1.5% 1.0% 2.5% 1 0.4% 0.0% 0.4%
Athletics 82 26.1% 4.3% 30.4% 86 28.9% 8.8% 37.7% 4 2.8% 4.5% 7.3%
Blue Jays 74 2.6% 5.8% 8.4% 77 4.2% 5.0% 9.2% 3 1.6% -0.8% 0.8%
Braves 89 26.6% 13.3% 39.9% 87 26.1% 10.3% 36.4% -1 -0.5% -3.0% -3.5%
Brewers 87 27.9% 8.9% 36.7% 87 26.5% 9.4% 35.9% -1 -1.4% 0.5% -0.8%
Cardinals 90 35.0% 12.0% 47.0% 87 31.0% 9.9% 40.9% -4 -4.0% -2.1% -6.1%
Cubs 79 10.5% 6.3% 16.8% 76 7.3% 3.8% 11.1% -4 -3.2% -2.5% -5.7%
Diamondbacks 74 6.4% 1.9% 8.3% 70 3.3% 1.2% 4.5% -4 -3.1% -0.7% -3.8%
Dodgers 83 20.3% 7.2% 27.5% 82 19.7% 6.7% 26.4% -1 -0.6% -0.5% -1.1%
Giants 84 24.1% 6.6% 30.6% 87 32.1% 8.2% 40.2% 3 8.0% 1.6% 9.6%
Indians 74 8.2% 2.7% 10.8% 71 6.2% 1.4% 7.6% -3 -2.0% -1.3% -3.2%
Mariners 72 8.4% 2.5% 10.9% 70 3.4% 1.3% 4.7% -2 -5.0% -1.2% -6.2%
Marlins 77 8.7% 5.0% 13.7% 79 9.5% 5.3% 14.8% 2 0.8% 0.3% 1.1%
Mets 77 7.1% 4.5% 11.6% 80 10.3% 6.0% 16.3% 4 3.2% 1.5% 4.7%
Nationals 72 3.2% 2.0% 5.2% 75 5.7% 3.3% 9.0% 3 2.5% 1.3% 3.8%
Orioles 70 1.8% 2.9% 4.7% 77 4.2% 4.8% 9.0% 7 2.4% 1.9% 4.3%
Padres 81 17.7% 5.0% 22.6% 83 21.6% 6.5% 28.1% 2 3.9% 1.5% 5.5%
Phillies 96 54.5% 11.0% 65.5% 94 48.4% 10.4% 58.8% -2 -6.1% -0.6% -6.7%
Pirates 68 2.1% 1.2% 3.3% 67 1.9% 1.1% 3.0% -1 -0.2% -0.1% -0.3%
Rangers 89 50.1% 4.5% 54.6% 93 57.6% 6.6% 64.2% 4 7.5% 2.1% 9.6%
Rays 87 17.9% 18.7% 36.6% 88 17.3% 14.6% 31.9% 1 -0.6% -4.1% -4.7%
Red Sox 98 54.6% 15.6% 70.2% 96 45.6% 17.6% 63.2% -2 -9.0% 2.0% -7.0%
Reds 86 23.5% 8.2% 31.7% 87 31.8% 10.0% 41.8% 2 8.3% 1.8% 10.1%
Rockies 86 31.7% 5.9% 37.6% 83 23.3% 7.0% 30.2% -3 -8.4% 1.1% -7.4%
Royals 67 2.8% 1.1% 3.9% 66 3.1% 0.7% 3.8% -1 0.3% -0.4% -0.1%
Tigers 84 27.5% 4.6% 32.0% 82 27.7% 5.5% 33.2% -2 0.2% 0.9% 1.2%
Twins 86 33.3% 6.2% 39.5% 82 26.9% 5.0% 31.9% -3 -6.4% -1.2% -7.6%
White Sox 85 28.4% 6.2% 34.5% 84 36.1% 5.7% 41.8% 0 7.7% -0.5% 7.3%
Yankees 89 23.2% 21.7% 44.9% 92 28.8% 19.4% 48.2% 3 5.6% -2.3% 3.3%

The Diff columns are just the December 28 results subtraced from the February 9 results.  Positive means a team’s odds have improved, negative means they’ve decreased.

In the AL East, the Blue Jays, Orioles, Rays and Yankees all improved, with Baltimore making the biggest gains.  The Red Sox still project as the best team in baseball, but the gap has shrunk a bit. 

Aside from the Rafael Soriano signing, the Yankees haven’t made any major moves, but by adding Andruw Jones, Freddy Garcia and Ronnie Belliard they’ve improved their depth.  Of course, it’s possible Belliard’s 2010 shows he’s at the end of the line and will not be very good, so if they are instead back to using Ramiro Pena and Eduardo Nunez more frequently that may hurt them some.

CAIRO still likes the White Sox in the Central, with the Twins and Tigers nipping on their heels. 

The Rangers look like a strong favorite in the AL West, although if they trade Michael Young that may hurt their depth a bit.  I only gave Brandon Webb about 10 starts, so how he does could have an impact on them.

Oakland hasn’t made any major moves, but they have improved by about four wins in this set of projections, mostly by shoring up their bullpen a bit.  The Angels and Mariners don’t really look like contenders at this point.

In the National League, the Phillies still look like the best team.  The Braves look like a solid second place team in the East, with the Mets, Marlins and Nationals a bit worse and separated by maybe five games in total.  For the Mets I’ve assumed that Chris Young and Johan Santana will split the #1 spot in the rotation at 50% each, but I have no idea how likely that is.

The top of the NL Central has bunched up a bit, with the Reds now slight favorites, primarily due to adding Edgar Renteria and Fred Lewis.  Really though, there’s a three-way tie at the top, with only 0.6 wins separating Cincinnati, Milwaukee and St. Louis.  The Cubs appear to have a stranglehold on fourth place.  I think there are two other teams in the Central as well.

The Giants still look to be on top of the NL West, with the Rockies, Padres and Dodgers a few games behind them but very close to each other.  I don’t really have anything to say about the Diamondbacks, so insert your own commentary here if you wish.

Even though rosters are a bit more settled than they were six weeks ago, it’s still too early to read too much into these.  So take them with the appropriate amount of skepticism.

--Posted at 7:15 am by SG / 43 Comments | - (0)




Monday, January 24, 2011

Updated Still Too Early 2011 AL East Standings Projection

With the Rays signing Johnny Damon/Manny Ramirez and the Jays trading Vernon Wells for Mike Napoli/Juan Rivera I was curious to see how it may AL East projected standings from this post may have changed, and here it is.

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Red Sox 94.9 67.1 834 693 45.5% 16.3% 61.8%
Yankees 90.3 71.7 819 739 25.4% 17.4% 42.8%
Rays 88.1 73.9 736 663 19.8% 15.1% 34.9%
Blue Jays 77.9 84.1 721 738 5.6% 5.6% 11.2%
Orioles 75.5 86.5 732 796 3.8% 4.0% 7.8%

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

Things appear to be getting pretty tight.  This is going to make Boston beating out the 1927 Yankees as “best team of evah” particularly noteworthy.

--Posted at 9:50 am by SG / 17 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Fourth Outfielder Roulette

Despite my less than enthusiastic response to the Yankees signing Rafael Soriano for too much money and for too many years, it has upgraded the team.  When I last ran my CAIRO projected standings for 2011 I had the Yankees at around 89 wins, with about a 23.2% probability of winning the AL East and with a 21.7% of taking the wild card, which put them at around 44.9% for qualifying for the postseason.

I’ve run more projections since then but am not going to post the full set because you’d be amazed how many people ignored my recommendation that they were too early to be taken seriously and went ahead and took them seriously.  However, I can say that the Yankees have moved up a bit and are now looking more like a 91 win team.  Here are the revised projected standings for the AL East as of roster moves from yesterday.

Date 1/19/2011
Iterations 10000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Red Sox 95.8 66.2 836 684 46.2% 17.9% 64.1%
Yankees 91.4 70.6 819 728 30.2% 18.9% 49.1%
Rays 85.9 76.1 703 651 14.7% 11.9% 26.6%
Blue Jays 77.4 84.6 695 723 4.5% 4.9% 9.4%
Orioles 77.2 84.8 736 784 4.4% 4.9% 9.3%

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC: Percentage ot times team won wild card
PL: Percentage of times team qualified for the postseason (Div + WC)


The Yankees’ odds didn’t increase as much as my initial estimates of Soriano’s potential impact because Toronto and Baltimore have both made some moves that increased their projected win totals.  In fact, they now sit in almost a dead heat for fourth place at 77 wins.  That is the primary reason Boston’s gone from 98 projected to wins to about 96 now.

It’s looking like there’s a pretty good chance the Yankees will be adding Andruw Jones to the mix, although that’s still not certain.  The Yankees do need to add someone as a fourth outfielder because right now their fourth outfielder would be one of Kevin Russo, Colin Curtis or Greg Golson, none of whom project to be any better than replacement level.

The names that have come up either here or other places are Jones, Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez and Scott Hairston.  As far as which one would be the best fit, let’s see what the numbers say.

For now, the primary Yankee lineup is probably going to look something like this.

Overall
Player Pos PA OBP wOBA Outs BR Def
Brett Gardner LF 5 .358 .329 3.2 0.58 0.07
Derek Jeter SS 5 .360 .342 3.2 0.62 -0.06
Mark Teixeira 1B 5 .377 .384 3.1 0.80 0.01
Alex Rodriguez 3B 5 .372 .384 3.1 0.80 -0.03
Robinson Cano 2B 5 .355 .372 3.2 0.76 -0.01
Nick Swisher RF 5 .354 .357 3.2 0.71 0.00
Jorge Posada DH 4 .354 .354 2.6 0.57 0.00
Curtis Granderson CF 4 .335 .346 2.7 0.54 0.01
Russell Martin C 4 .362 .336 2.6 0.48 0.00
Starter Total 42 .359 .357 27.0 5.85 -0.01
p162 6396 4100 889 -2

 

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
Outs: Outs made batting (PA times 1 minus OBP)
BR: Linear weights batting runs for PA (not position-adjusted or compared to average/replacement level)
Def: Estimated runs saved defensively compared to average over nine innings.

I’m showing the lineup based on 27 outs and nine defensive innings, or one game. 

Here’s how that lineup projects vs. LHP.

vs. LHP
Player Pos PA OBP wOBA Outs BR Def
Brett Gardner LF 5 .337 .310 3.3 0.52 0.07
Derek Jeter SS 5 .383 .364 3.1 0.64 -0.06
Mark Teixeira 1B 5 .384 .393 3.1 0.74 0.01
Alex Rodriguez 3B 5 .379 .392 3.1 0.76 -0.03
Robinson Cano 2B 5 .339 .354 3.3 0.65 -0.01
Nick Swisher RF 5 .363 .367 3.2 0.70 0.00
Jorge Posada DH 4 .358 .358 2.6 0.49 0.00
Curtis Granderson CF 4 .287 .297 2.9 0.36 0.01
Russell Martin C 4 .384 .357 2.5 0.51 0.00
Starter Total 42 .358 .356 27.0 5.38 -0.01
p162 6387 4100 818 -2


They lose almost one-half run per game.

And here’s how it projects vs. RHP.

Vs. RHP
Player Pos PA OBP wOBA Outs BR Def
Brett Gardner LF 5 .366 .336 3.2 0.60 0.07
Derek Jeter SS 5 .352 .334 3.2 0.61 -0.06
Mark Teixeira 1B 5 .373 .381 3.1 0.83 0.01
Alex Rodriguez 3B 5 .369 .382 3.2 0.82 -0.03
Robinson Cano 2B 5 .362 .379 3.2 0.81 -0.01
Nick Swisher RF 5 .350 .353 3.3 0.71 0.00
Jorge Posada DH 4 .353 .352 2.7 0.60 0.00
Curtis Granderson CF 4 .351 .363 2.6 0.60 0.01
Russell Martin C 4 .355 .330 2.6 0.46 0.00
Starter Total 42 .359 .357 27.0 6.04 -0.01
p162 6400 4100 917 -2


The good news is that the lineup vs. RHP is strong.  Since the Yankees will probably get around 2/3 of their PA vs. righties, that’s a good thing.

Because of the drop-off vs. LHP, I do think it’s imperative for the Yankees to get a right-handed hitting OF.  I will include Damon’s projection here since his name’s come up as well.

vs. LHP
Player Pos PA OBP wOBA Outs BR Def Net
Andruw Jones LF 4 .334 .342 2.7 0.48 -0.09 0.39
Johnny Damon LF 4 .331 .325 2.7 0.44 -0.02 0.42
Manny Ramirez LF 4 .417 .418 2.3 0.66 -0.09 0.57
Scott Hairston LF 4 .322 .328 2.7 0.42 0.01 0.43


Jones’s defensive projection is based on a very limited sample in LF that shows him around -15, but I’d say he’s probably closer to average since that’s what his RF and CF numbers show. 

In terms of offense, Ramirez is the best of the bunch but Jones is second.  While Ramirez as DH over Posada would be an upgrade, I’m not sure it’s what I’d want the Yankees doing.  If Posada can’t hit as DH or gets injured and Martin’s doing the bulk of the catching then I’d rather see Jesus Montero as the primary DH.  He probably wouldn’t hit as well as Ramirez would in 2011 but he’d be a hell of a lot more fun to root for, at least for me.

Hairston projects similarly to Jones with a bit less offense and a bit more defense.

Here’s the team’s bottom line vs. LHP with each of the four players assuming Brett Gardner shifts to CF and they play LF with Posada at DH.

vs. LHP
Player PA OBP wOBA Outs BR Def Net
w/ Jones 42 .362 .360 27.0 5.54 -0.13 5.41
w/ Damon 42 .362 .358 27.0 5.49 -0.06 5.43
w/ Ramirez 43 .370 .367 27.0 5.77 -0.123 5.65
w/ Hairston 42 .361 .359 27.0 5.48 -0.025 5.45


If Jones is more like an average defender then the net is 5.54.  So he probably does make more sense than Damon or Hairston if hitting LHP and playing adequate defense is the primary concern.  Over 200 PA vs. LHP the difference between Jones and Ramirez is only about five runs total.

That being said, we can’t just ignore how these players may do against RHP since they will almost certainly be used against them at some point, and may have to play a lot if one of the starters gets hurt, so here’s how the team’s net lineup looks with each of the four in LF vs. RHP.

Vs. RHP
Player PA OBP wOBA Outs BR Def Net
w/ Jones 42 .356 .353 27.0 5.94 -0.13 5.81
w/ Damon 42 .360 .356 27.0 6.02 -0.06 5.96
w/ Ramirez 42 .363 .360 27.0 6.13 -0.12 6.01
w/ Hairston 42 .354 .352 27.0 5.85 -0.03 5.83

And getting right back to the basics, here’s how the lineup would look overall with each of the four players.

Overall
Player PA OBP wOBA Outs BR Def Net
w/ Jones 42 .357 .354 27.0 5.78 -0.131 5.65
w/ Damon 42 .360 .356 27.0 5.85 -0.058 5.79
w/ Ramirez 42 .365 .361 27.0 6.02 -0.123 5.90
w/ Hairston 42 .356 .355 27.0 5.74 -0.025 5.71


Given the margin of error with projections in general and especially with defensive projections, I just can’t say definitively that the Yankees are better off with one of Jones, Damon or Hairston.  While the idea of Ramirez in the lineup may be interesting, I just don’t think he’s up to playing defense full-time if the need manifests.  This team doesn’t need a second full-time DH.  If they need to replace Posada’s bat, they can rotate their OF through DH and play whomever they sign in the outfield, or they can use Montero and hope he’s ready.

--Posted at 4:01 pm by SG / 26 Comments | - (0)




Monday, January 10, 2011

How Would Adding Rafael Soriano to the Yankee Bullpen Affect the Yankees’ Postseason Odds?

Following up on the prior thread, here’s a comparison of a Yankee team with and without Rafael Soriano along with their top two divisional rivals. 

AL East W Div WC PL sW sDiv sWC sPL
Red Sox 97.1 64.1% 18.5% 82.6% 96.7 58.1% 21.5% 79.6%
Yankees 89.6 22.7% 26.4% 49.1% 91.8 29.4% 27.9% 57.3%
Rays 85.7 11.8% 17.0% 28.8% 86.3 11.6% 21.5% 33.1%

W: Average projected win total in 10,000 simulations with current rosters
Div: Percentage of times team won the division
WC: Percentage of times team won the wild card
PL: Percentage of times team qualified for the postseason (Div + WC)

The s columns are the same thing as above assuming the Yankees added Rafael Soriano and that he made them about two wins better.

So the net effect is that two wins would improve the Yankees’ postseason chances by about 8% at this point in time.  That’s pretty significant, and higher than I’d have expected.

--Posted at 6:43 pm by SG / 19 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Extremely Early CAIRO 2011 MLB Projected Standings

Around this time every year I like to run projected standings for the upcoming MLB season.  It’s very limited in telling us much about how 2011 will play out since there are still a lot of roster changes coming, but it may give us some sense of how the offseason has impacted teams to this point and it also shows us how things would look if nothing changed from now until April.  Which won’t happen.

Since this point is not readily comprehensible for people of limited intelligence I’ll reiterate it. It’s too early to construct meaningful rosters for a lot of teams, so these projections will favor the teams that have essentially completed their 2011 rosters. 

In addition to that, projection systems are inherently limited.  They are designed to estimate a player’s true talent based on what they’ve done so far and also by factoring in things like age and how similar players have performed in the past.  They will generally be in the ballpark for the general population of MLB players, but they can miss significantly on individual players which can obviously affect certain teams more heavily than others.

So, anyway, using the depth charts from the wonderful MLB Depth Charts and includng playing time from players on the 40 man roster who don’t necessarily figure to be part of the the opening day 25 man rosters to account for organizational depth and playing out next season 10,000 times, here’s how CAIRO v0.3 sees things as of December 27, 2010.

Date 12/28/2010
Iterations 10000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 98.1 63.9 856 690 54.6% 15.6% 70.2% 9.1 38 -54
Yankees 89.1 72.9 835 740 23.2% 21.7% 44.9% -5.9 -24 47
Rays 87.1 74.9 707 640 17.9% 18.7% 36.6% -8.9 -95 -9
Blue Jays 74.1 87.9 693 737 2.6% 5.8% 8.4% -10.9 -62 9
Orioles 70.1 91.9 723 813 1.8% 2.9% 4.7% 4.1 110 28
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Twins 85.7 76.3 752 715 33.3% 6.2% 39.5% -8.3 -29 44
White Sox 84.5 77.5 735 711 28.4% 6.2% 34.5% -3.5 -17 7
Tigers 84.0 78.0 727 712 27.5% 4.6% 32.0% 3.0 -24 -31
Indians 73.9 88.1 728 802 8.2% 2.7% 10.8% 4.9 82 50
Royals 66.9 95.1 678 815 2.8% 1.1% 3.9% -0.1 2 -30
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 89.2 72.8 746 673 50.1% 4.5% 54.6% -0.8 -41 -14
Athletics 82.1 79.9 678 667 26.1% 4.3% 30.4% 1.1 15 41
Angels 77.9 84.1 665 690 15.5% 3.2% 18.7% -2.1 -16 -12
Mariners 72.2 89.8 635 703 8.4% 2.5% 10.9% 11.2 122 5
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 96.1 65.9 754 618 54.5% 11.0% 65.5% -0.9 -18 -22
Braves 88.5 73.5 754 690 26.6% 13.3% 39.9% -2.5 16 61
Mets 76.6 85.4 675 702 7.1% 4.5% 11.6% -2.4 19 50
Marlins 77.3 84.7 679 708 8.7% 5.0% 13.7% -2.7 -40 -9
Nationals 72.4 89.6 659 733 3.2% 2.0% 5.2% 13.4 -51 -141
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Cardinals 90.2 71.8 746 676 35.0% 12.0% 47.0% 4.2 10 35
Brewers 87.2 74.8 698 650 27.9% 8.9% 36.7% 10.2 -52 -154
Reds 85.5 76.5 723 689 23.5% 8.2% 31.7% -5.5 -67 4
Cubs 79.3 82.7 742 761 10.5% 6.3% 16.8% 4.3 57 -6
Pirates 67.7 94.3 671 808 2.1% 1.2% 3.3% -6.3 28 38
Astros 65.8 96.2 604 732 1.1% 1.0% 2.1% 3.8 -32 -36
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rockies 85.9 76.1 768 732 31.7% 5.9% 37.6% 2.9 -2 15
Giants 84.2 77.8 699 667 24.1% 6.6% 30.6% -7.8 2 84
Dodgers 83.3 78.7 677 659 20.3% 7.2% 27.5% 3.3 10 -33
Padres 81.2 80.8 647 652 17.7% 5.0% 22.6% -8.8 -18 71
Diamondbacks 73.8 88.2 690 757 6.4% 1.9% 8.3% 3.8 -30 -25

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

The only reason I am showing wins and losses to one decimal place is so I don’t have to answer questions about why the wins and losses don’t add up to exactly 2430.  There is no way to imply that something like this can be precise to that level.

Did I mention that it’s still too early to do this, and that it shouldn’t be taken seriously?

I guess it’s not exactly news that Boston and Philadelphia look to be the two best teams in baseball right now.  Although it’s easy for lazy analysts to make the claim that Tampa Bay is going to be bad because they lost Carl Crawford and their whole bullpen, it’s just not true.  They’ve won the AL East in two of the past three seasons, and they have a ton of pitching talent in the minors.  Jake McGee looks like a potentially dominant closer.  They also won 96 games last year despite getting very little production out of first base and DH.  Losing Crawford hurts, but Desmond Jennings is another good prospect who has a chance to mitigate that a bit as well.

Toronto tends to project worse than they actually end up doing every year, mainly because they’ve always seemed to get better than expected pitching.  They’ve lost John Buck and Shaun Marcum from last year’s team, and CAIRO is expecting Jose Bautista will not hit 54 HRs again which explains most of their drop.

The Orioles tend to project better than they actually end up doing every year, but perhaps they’ll Buck that trend in 2011.

As for our Yankees, they’re still a good team.  They’re just not as good as Boston on paper right now.  That doesn’t mean they can’t win the division, it just means that they need some players to exceed their projections (A.J.?) and/or some players from Boston/Tampa Bay to underperform some of their’s.  If they can add Andy Pettitte or some league average starter who can give them 180 innings or so that’s probably worth another two wins over Ivan Nova/Sergio Mitre.

Right now the AL Central looks pretty tightly bunched at the top between the White Sox, Tigers and Twins.  Cleveland should be able to hold off KC for fourth place, although if Melky-mania runs wild who knows?

The West looks like Texas’s to lose, even without Cliff “The Big Train” Lee. LA of A could pick up about three wins if they sign Adrian Beltre, but that alone doesn’t seem like it’d be enough to get them up to Texas’s level.

I don’t know if the Phillies are as good as Boston, although they may be a better short series team.  They are almost certainly the tallest midget in the circus known as the National League, but they’re not some 110 win juggernaut on paper.  The Braves seem to be the second best team in the NL East and should at least be a strong contender for the wild card.

The Cardinals still appear to have the best front-line talent in the NL Central although Milwaukee has improved themselves significantly.  The Reds are not far off from the top either.

The NL West is also tightly bunched at the top, with only about four wins separating first place through fourth.

Did I mention that it’s too early for this to be taken too seriously?

--Posted at 10:00 am by SG / 134 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, October 21, 2010

2010 ALCS Probabilities After Game 6

Texas: 75.3%
Yankees: 24.7%

Update: Since Mike K. asked about updating the game probabilities from this thread, and this was posted before I saw that, here goes.

For Game 6. in the Yankees case, they’re replacing 4-5 PAs of Mark Teixeira versus a RHP with Marcus Thames, assuming Berkman would have DH’ed instead of playing 1B.  That’s about a 0.3 run downgrade, which moves the Yankees’ probability of winning game 6 from 53.5% to about 50.8%.

For Game 7, you are replacing 4 PAs of Mark Teixeira vs. Cliff Lee to 4 PAs of Lance Berkman vs. Cliff Lee, which is like a 0.19 run downgrade.  That takes the Yankees down from a 46.1% win probability in Game 7 to 43.8%.

Of course this is in the theoretical world where Cliff Lee gives up runs.  In the real world, you’re going from 0 runs to 0 runs and 0.0% win probability to a 0.0% win probability.

Near as I can tell, Cruz isn’t going to miss Game 6 or 7.  If he did, the downgrade to Murphy vs. Hughes and Francouer vs. Pettitte is around the same as the Yankees’s downgrades in Games 6/7.  So if Cruz is out, it’s effectively a wash.  If not, ALCS probabilities should be more like

Texas: 77.8%
Yankees: 22.2%

--Posted at 8:27 am by SG / 47 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, October 20, 2010

2010 ALCS Probabilities After Game 5

Texas: 85.8%
Yankees: 14.2%

Update: Mark Teixeira injured, out for playoffs.

I didn’t even know Teixeira was playing.

--Posted at 9:30 am by SG / 26 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, October 17, 2010

2010 ALCS Probabilities after Game 2

After splitting the first two games in Texas, and with Cliff Lee looming in Game 3 and A.J. Burnett looming in Game 4, I figured it’d be good to look at how the rest of the ALCS may play out.

To do that, I’ve set up a simulation that runs through the rest of the series using the actual starting pitching matchups and using the lineups both teams have used in the first two games.  If a lefty is pitching, the lineups will be the lineups from Game 1 and if a righty is pitching the lineups will be the ones used in Game 2.  I’m using CAIRO projections updated to include what happened in 2010 rather than just the 2010 numbers, since for the majority of players projections should tell us more than what they actually did in a single season.

So running through the ALCS 10,000 times, here are the distributions for the possible remaining outcomes.

Result %
TEX in 4 0.0%
TEX in 5 10.4%
TEX in 6 17.3%
TEX in 7 18.4%
NYA in 7 15.1%
NYA in 6 25.7%
NYA in 5 13.1%
NYA in 4 0.0%
TEX 46.1%
NYA 53.9%

The last row is just the combined probabilities for each team winning overall.

The Yankees are still slight favorites at 53.9% overall.  The most common outcome in these simulations was Yankees in 6.

Here’s how the series breaks down by game.

Game Road Starter Home Starter NYA w%
1 NYA Sabathia TEX Wilson 100.0%
2 NYA Hughes TEX Lewis,C 0.0%
3 TEX Lee NYA Pettitte 50.1%
4 TEX Hunter NYA Burnett 51.7%
5 TEX Wilson NYA Sabathia 57.6%
6 NYA Hughes TEX Lewis,C 53.5%
7 NYA Pettitte TEX Lee 46.1%

Even with Cliff Lee in Game 3, the Yankees should have a 50/50 chance of winning.  The fact is, Andy Pettitte’s a good pitcher, facing a Texas team that is a bit worse against LHP.  Backing him is the Yankee lineup, which is a very good one even after what happened in Game 2. 

Game 4 is going to be the key to this series.  The projections for Hunter and Burnett incorporate past performance, which makes Hunter worse and Burnett better.  It’s certainly possible that Hunter and Burnett are closer to what they did in 2010 than what they project to do going forward, but we just don’t know that.

There’s also the possibility that the Yankees go with CC Sabathia on short rest in Game 4 if they lose Game 3, but based on how he’s looked in his first two postseason starts, I doubt they’re going to do that.

So it’s safe to say that tomorrow’s game is important.  Like, really, really, really, really, really important.

How important?

If the Yankees win:

Result %
TEX in 4 0.0%
TEX in 5 0.0%
TEX in 6 10.0%
TEX in 7 18.5%
NYA in 7 15.5%
NYA in 6 25.4%
NYA in 5 30.5%
NYA in 4 0.0%
TEX 28.6%
NYA 71.4%

If the Yankees lose:

Result %
TEX in 4 0.0%
TEX in 5 21.1%
TEX in 6 22.9%
TEX in 7 19.7%
NYA in 7 19.2%
NYA in 6 17.0%
NYA in 5 0.0%
NYA in 4 0.0%
TEX 63.8%
NYA 36.2%

--Posted at 3:22 pm by SG / 34 Comments | - (0)




Friday, October 8, 2010

Team Odds of Advancing to LCS through Games of October 7, 2010

Using updated depth charts and simulating the rest of the DS games out 10,000 times, here are the percentages for each team’s chance to advance to their respective league championship series.

Team Adv %
Yankees 95.0%
Phillies 86.0%
Rangers 83.4%
Giants 66.6%
Braves 33.4%
Rays 16.6%
Reds 14.0%
Twins 5.0%

--Posted at 11:04 am by SG / 78 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, October 6, 2010

2010 ALDS Preview: Rangers vs. Rays

Who will the Twins play in the next round?

Since Joe Maddon took his time to get his roster in, this is going to be be quick.

Here are the Rangers’s position player projections.

Lineup Pos 2010 OBP 2010 wOBA Proj OBP Proj wOBA PA Outs BR Def
Elvis Andrus SS .335 .296 .310 .309 20 14 2 0.1
Michael Young 3B .331 .336 .340 .341 20 13 3 -0.3
Josh Hamilton CF .411 .444 .366 .392 20 13 3 0.0
Vladimir Guerrero DH .346 .361 .355 .374 20 13 3 0.0
Nelson Cruz RF .372 .405 .343 .374 20 13 3 0.3
Ian Kinsler 2B .380 .357 .352 .357 20 13 3 0.1
Mitch Moreland 1B .360 .362 .319 .316 15 10 2 0.1
Bengie Molina C .292 .275 .286 .302 10 7 1 0.0
Julio Borbon LF .304 .287 .314 .297 10 7 1 -0.1
Andres Blanco 2B .326 .298 .311 .297 10 7 1 0.0
David Murphy LF .355 .356 .334 .340 10 7 1 0.0
Cristian Guzman SS .308 .289 .305 .302 5 3 0 0.0
Chris Davis 1B .279 .267 .286 .319 0 0 0 0.0
Matt Treanor C .285 .266 .289 .277 3 2 0 0.0
Jorge Cantu 1B .301 .302 .317 .330 5 3 1 0.0

The biggest issue the Rangers probably have on the position player side is Josh Hamilton’s health.  He’s playing through a rib injury and it may affect his availablity and his effectiveness.

And their pitching projections,

Pitcher Role 2010 RA 2010 FIP Proj RA Proj FIP IP R
Cliff Lee SP1 3.56 2.59 3.75 3.40 14 5.8
C.J. Wilson SP2 3.66 3.59 3.93 3.68 6 2.6
Colby Lewis SP3 4.04 3.51 4.70 4.03 6 3.1
Tommy Hunter SP4 3.87 4.99 5.19 4.98 5 2.9
Neftali Feliz CL 2.73 2.97 4.13 3.60 3 1.4
Darren O’Day SU 2.18 3.58 3.26 3.61 3 1.1
Darren Oliver MR 2.97 2.64 3.41 3.43 3 1.1
Derek Holland MR 4.71 4.04 5.94 4.63 2 1.3
Alexi Ogando MR 1.33 3.16 3.75 3.77 2 0.8
Dustin Nippert MR 4.37 4.95 5.47 4.97 1 0.6

Texas has got a pretty good pitching staff, especially when you account for the historical tendency of their home park to boost offense.  Obviously Cliff Lee’s as good as any pitcher out there, and having him going twice in a series is a pretty good thing.

As far as the AL East champs, here are their projections.

Lineup Pos 2010 OBP 2010 wOBA Proj OBP Proj wOBA PA Outs BR Def
John Jaso C .371 .343 .343 .324 15 10 2 -0.1
Carlos Pena 1B .324 .325 .352 .366 18 12 3 0.0
Sean Rodriguez 2B .305 .312 .323 .338 20 14 3 0.3
Jason Bartlett SS .318 .298 .332 .318 20 13 2 0.1
Evan Longoria 3B .372 .380 .367 .391 21 13 4 0.4
Carl Crawford LF .353 .374 .342 .347 21 14 3 0.3
B.J. Upton CF .324 .339 .341 .334 20 13 2 0.0
Ben Zobrist RF .345 .325 .351 .341 20 13 3 0.4
Rocco Baldelli RF .208 .238 .303 .331 5 3 1 0.0
Reid Brignac SS .308 .306 .300 .306 10 7 1 0.0
Matt Joyce RF .359 .361 .321 .330 10 7 1 0.1
Kelly Shoppach C .308 .296 .311 .329 3 2 0 0.0
Dan Johnson 1B .341 .337 .350 .347 5 3 1 0.0
Desmond Jennings CF .292 .267 .316 .311 1 1 0 0.1

Pitcher Role 2010 RA 2010 FIP Proj RA Proj FIP IP R
David Price SP1 3.06 3.44 4.01 4.15 14 6.2
James Shields SP2 5.67 4.26 4.73 4.15 6 3.2
Matt Garza SP3 4.13 4.43 4.23 4.41 6 2.8
Wade Davis SP4 4.19 4.83 5.06 4.84 6 3.4
Rafael Soriano CL 2.05 2.79 3.09 3.21 3 1.0
Grant Balfour SU 2.60 2.75 3.45 3.30 3 1.2
Joaquin Benoit MR 1.52 2.52 3.73 3.68 3 1.2
Dan Wheeler MR 3.75 4.19 4.24 4.41 1 0.5
Randy Choate MR 4.67 3.50 4.50 3.93 2 1.0
Jeff Niemann MR 4.47 4.66 4.83 4.70 1 0.5

David Price is probably better than that projection, but we won’t know that for a while.  Although James Shields had an ugly season, a lot of that had to do with a pretty high BABIP. I’m still surprised he’s starting Game 2 though.

So you’ve got:

Team Offense Defense Pitching Pythagenpat p162
Rangers 24.1 0.2 20.8 .568 92
VS
Rays 24.5 1.7 21.0 .613 99

And 10,000 simulations of that series says:

Rays: 53.9%
Rangers: 46.1%

--Posted at 12:44 pm by SG / 32 Comments | - (0)



2010 ALDS Preview: Twins vs. Yankees

The Twins broke in their new stadium with a very successful season, winning 94 games and taking the AL Central by six games.  Although they haven’t fared well against the Yankees in the postseason, that doesn’t mean a damn thing when looking at this series.

The Twins scored 781 runs this year, which ranked sixth in baseball.  Here’s a look at how their position players project.

Lineup Pos 2010 OBP 2010 wOBA Proj OBP Proj wOBA PA Outs BR Def
Denard Span CF .328 .311 .360 .332 20 13 2 0.1
Orlando Hudson 2B .334 .317 .341 .325 20 13 2 0.1
Joe Mauer C .402 .380 .408 .397 20 12 4 0.0
Jason Kubel RF .324 .327 .333 .348 20 13 3 -0.3
Michael Cuddyer 1B .336 .332 .332 .339 20 13 3 -0.2
Jim Thome DH .410 .434 .355 .366 20 13 3 0.0
Delmon Young LF .334 .353 .328 .343 19 13 2 -0.3
Danny Valencia 3B .354 .353 .300 .307 19 13 2 0.1
J.J. Hardy SS .317 .312 .310 .317 19 13 2 0.2
Drew Butera C .234 .233 .269 .263 3 2 0 0.1
Brendan Harris DH .233 .211 .301 .296 3 2 0 0.0
Nick Punto RF .311 .283 .312 .279 3 2 0 0.0
Alexi Casilla SS .324 .319 .302 .279 3 2 0 0.1
Justin Morneau 1B .437 .448 .370 .386 0 0 0 0.0
Jason Repko RF .326 .307 .288 .289 0 0 0 0.0
Matt Tolbert 1B .293 .290 .292 .283 0 0 0 0.0

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
PA: Plate appearances
Outs: calculated as (1- Proj OBP) times PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs over series estimate of playing time
Def: Projected defense over series estimate of playing time using an average of DRS, TZ, UZR and ZR

You’ll note that the Twins’ 2010 wOBA are almost all lower than their projections.  I think that’s due to the way Target Field played, as it seems to have suppressed offense by about 4%.  We don’t want to make too much of a single year’s park factors, but it is worth mentioning.

Denard Span had a down year after putting up a couple of strong seasons in 2008 and 2009.  Some of it was a drop in BABIP as he went from .353 to .294 this year, but he also walked less frequently (8.5% of the time compared to 12.2% in 2008 and 10.4% in 2009).  His HR/FB rate plummeted to just 2.0%, compared to 10.5% in 2008 and 5.9% in 2009. We have more evidence that Span is better than he was in 2010, so that should be the assumption.  He appears to be a good defender according to most of the advanced defensive metrics.

Orlando Hudson has had a tough time getting a job the last few years for whatever reason, but he’s a solid second baseman.  Not necessarily in the Utley/Cano class, but pretty good overall.

It’s no secret that Joe Mauer is one of the most valuable players in baseball, and the key player for the Twins. 

Unfortunately for the Twins, they’re going to be without Justin Morneau for the postseason.  He was having a great season before he went down with a concussion and his loss hurts them.  Michael Cuddyer was able to step into Morneau’s spot at first base and in the cleanup spot, but he’s both an offensive and defensive downgrade.

Jim Thome was signed to be a part-time player, but got pressed into full-time duty with Morneau out and had an outstanding season.  His performance against lefties was markedly worse (.241/.298/.471 compared to .302/.455/.698 vs RHP), which is probably part of the reasoning behind the Yankees setting up their rotation to get four starts out of CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte.  As a team the Twins do project worse against lefties, but I’ll get into that in a bit.

Delmon Young had the best season of his career in 2010.  It’s easy to forget that he’s still just 24 since he’s been in the majors since he turned 20.  He still doesn’t walk much and his defense is still unimpressive, but he can be a dangerous hitter, particularly against lefties.

I really don’t know much about Danny Valencia, except that he came up and hit very well this year and showed a good glove.  Time will tell if he’s as good as he was in 2010, but his projection isn’t particularly good.

J.J. Hardy rounds out the primary starters.  Hardy is a good fielder but not much of a hitter. 

The bench looks like some combination of Drew Butera, Brendan Harris, Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla, Jason Repko and Matt Tolbert. 

With this depth chart, using the assumption of a five game series and 25 batting outs per game, the Twins would project to score about 24 runs.  Their overall defense projects to be a bit worse than average.

Getting back to the platoon thing, here’s how the Twins lineup projects against all pitching and then against LHP and RHP.

Player Overall
PA wOBA BR Outs
Denard Span 5.0 .332 0.6 3.2
Orlando Hudson 5.0 .325 0.6 3.3
Joe Mauer 5.0 .397 0.9 3.0
Jason Kubel 5.0 .348 0.7 3.3
Michael Cuddyer 5.0 .339 0.6 3.3
Jim Thome 4.0 .366 0.6 2.6
Delmon Young 4.0 .343 0.5 2.7
Danny Valencia 4.0 .307 0.4 2.8
J.J. Hardy 4.0 .317 0.4 2.8
Total 41.0 .342 5.3 27.0
Vs. L PA wOBA BR Outs
Denard Span 5.0 .322 0.6 3.3
Orlando Hudson 5.0 .310 0.5 3.4
Joe Mauer 5.0 .359 0.7 3.2
Jason Kubel 5.0 .314 0.5 3.5
Michael Cuddyer 4.5 .357 0.6 2.9
Jim Thome 4.0 .316 0.4 2.8
Delmon Young 4.0 .363 0.6 2.6
Danny Valencia 4.0 .325 0.5 2.7
J.J. Hardy 4.0 .335 0.5 2.7
Total 40.5 .333 4.9 27.0
Vs. R PA wOBA BR Outs
Denard Span 5.0 .331 0.6 3.2
Orlando Hudson 5.0 .329 0.6 3.3
Joe Mauer 5.0 .414 1.0 2.9
Jason Kubel 5.0 .356 0.7 3.3
Michael Cuddyer 5.0 .330 0.6 3.4
Jim Thome 4.3 .394 0.8 2.7
Delmon Young 4.0 .337 0.5 2.7
Danny Valencia 4.0 .302 0.4 2.8
J.J. Hardy 4.0 .309 0.4 2.8
Total 41.3 .346 5.5 27.0

That’s a pretty significant difference.  0.6 runs per game is close to 100 runs over a 162 game season.  So it makes sense to attack them with as much left-handed pitching as you can.

So how about the pitching?

Pitcher Role 2010 RA 2010 FIP Proj RA Proj FIP IP R
Francisco Liriano SP1 3.62 2.66 4.09 3.67 14 5.4
Carl Pavano SP2 3.87 4.07 4.73 4.33 5 2.6
Brian Duensing SP3 2.89 3.74 4.54 4.35 6 3.0
Nick Blackburn SP4 5.79 5.06 5.11 4.65 4 2.3
Matt Capps CL 3.33 3.24 4.52 4.12 3 1.5
Jesse Crain SU 3.57 3.25 3.94 3.73 3 1.3
Jon Rauch MR 3.12 2.95 3.98 3.82 3 1.3
Brian Fuentes MR 3.19 3.96 3.81 3.82 3 1.3
Matt Guerrier MR 3.55 4.29 4.04 4.49 2 0.9
Jose Mijares MR 3.98 3.97 4.30 4.51 1 0.5
Kevin Slowey MR 4.63 3.99 4.74 4.13 1 0.5
Scott Baker MR 4.60 3.97 4.38 4.05 0 0.0
Total 45 20.7

2010/Proj RA: 2010/projected run allowed per nine innings
2010/Proj FIP:  2010/projected Fielding Independent Pitching
IP: Estimated innings pitched in this series
R: Estimated runs allowed in this series (Projected RA divided by nine times IP)

It looks like the Twins will go with a four man rotation of Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing and Nick Blackburn.  That would set up Liriano to go in Game 5 if needed.

The first thing I’ll say about the pitching projections is that Liriano’s projection is wrong.  He’s been working his way back from Tommy John surgery the last few seasons and this year his velocity jumped by about 2 mph and he’s been a completely different pitcher.  I don’t think I’d expect him to be as good as his 2010 FIP, but he’s a very good pitcher right now.

Pavano.  That name seems familiar to me for some reason…

Brian Duensing had a very good year working out of the bullpen and the rotation.  He struggled a bit over his last two starts and was reported to have ‘shoulder tightness’ in his final game of the year but it appears to be a non-issue and he’s penciled in as the Game 3 starter.

Nick Blackburn was decent in 2008 and 2009 but had a rough 2010.  I am honestly surprised he’s getting a start in this series if needed, although it may have something to do with the fact that he pitched pretty well against the Yankees in the 2009 ALDS.

The Twins bullpen has been very good all year, even after losing Joe Nathan.  Matt Capps is the closer and he pitched pretty well this year, but CAIRO’s skeptical.  Jesse Crain and Jon Rauch are the key righties, and expect to see lots of Brian Fuentes and Jose Mijares against the Yankee lefties.

The unbalanced schedule makes it a little hard to get a true read on how good any particular team is.  You can look at things like quality of opposition, but even there you’ve got a lot of noise.  If the AL Central has a higher wOBA than the AL East, is it because they have better hitters or is it because they have worse pitchers?  The Twins went 15-21 against the AL East.  Take out Baltimore and they went 12-20.

That doesn’t mean the Twins aren’t a good team, because they are.  It doesn’t mean they can’t beat the Yankees, because they might. 

Here’s how the Twins offense, defense and pitching projections add up.

Team Offense Defense Pitching Pythagenpat p162
Twins 23.8 -0.2 21.6 .546 88

If Morneau was playing in this series they’d be more like a 92 win team.  If you assume Liriano can pitch to a 3.50 RA instead of his projected 4.09 RA they’d also be around a 92 win team. Home field advantage in a five game series is worth about 0.004 percentage points.

I’m going to give the Twins a 3.50 RA Liriano.  So simming a series between the Twins as a 92 win team and the Yankees as a 102 win team 10,000 times I get the following win probabilities:

Yankees: 57.22%
Twins: 42.78%

So I’m going to say Twins in 2.

--Posted at 6:36 am by SG / 31 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, September 23, 2010

The Implications of Tonight’s Game with Tampa Bay

The Yankees and Rays will face off for the last time in the regular season later tonight (weather permitting).  The Yankees still hold a 1.5 game lead on the Rays, but a loss tonight would tie the two in the loss column.

At this point, it’s a virtual certainty both teams are going to the postseason.  So the question is which team is going to end up taking the division since it means home field advantage and a possible seeding advantage.

The Rays lead the season series 9-8, so the best the Yankees can do is tie it by winning tonight.  Why does that matter?  Because it’s the first tie-breaker when two teams from the same division end the year qualifying for the postseason with the same record.

So if the Yankees don’t win tonight, the Rays will win the AL East if the Yankees and Rays end the season with the same record.

How about if the Yankees do win tonight, by some miracle? In that instance, the season series is tied which means they have to move onto the second tie-breaker.  Here’s how Major League Rule 33 and Major League rule 34 describe that.

The Club with the higher winning percentage in head-to-head competition between the two tied Clubs during the championship season; or

If the Clubs remain tied, then to the tied Club with the higher winning percentage in intradivision games during the championship season; or

If the Clubs remain tied, then to the tied Club with the higher winning percentage in the last half of intraleague games during the championship season; or

If the Clubs remain tied, then to the tied Club with the higher winning percentage in the last half plus one of intraleague games during the championship season, provided that such additional game was not a game between the two tied Clubs. This process will be followed game-by-game until the tie is broken.

The Rays have three intradivisional games left after tonight, at home hosting the Orioles.  They currently have a record of 40-28 against the rest of the AL East.

The yankees have nine intradivisional games left after tonight, three at home vs. Boston and then six on the road against Toronto and Boston.  They are currently 35-27 against the rest of the AL East.

If the Rays lose all the rest of their AL East games starting tonight, they end with an intradivision record of 40-32.  So the Yankees would only have to take four of nine from Toronto/Boston to tie that.  However, the more likely scenario is Tampa Bay picking up two wins against Baltimore which means the Yankees would have to go 6-3 against Toronto/Boston to match them.

My Monte Carlo simulator currently puts the AL East odds at:
Yankees: 64.8%
Rays: 35.1%

That is high for the Yankees because my simulator awards ties a share of the division, so if the Yankees and Rays finish the year with the same record they each get 0.5 of the division title.  Someday I’ll fix that, but for now just mentally adjust that in your head.

If the Yankees win tonight (haha), the odds go to:
Yankees: 75.9%
Rays: 23.1%

And when the Yankees lose tonight, the odds go to:
Rays: 54.0%
Yankees: 46.0%

Again, mentally adjust those to account for the tie-breakers.

That’s a pretty big swing on one game, huh?

It almost seems to me like the Yankees have to win this game if they want the division, but at this point it’s not worth going above and beyond for it.  If it happens, great.  If not, take your chances on the road to start the postseason.

--Posted at 10:11 am by SG / 42 Comments | - (0)




Monday, September 13, 2010

The Implications of This Series With Tampa Bay

Postseason odds as of this morning (September 13)
Yankees: 97.5 wins, 49.0% Division, 48.5% wild card
Rays: 97.6 wins, 51.0% Division, 47.3% wild card
Red Sox: 89.9 wins, 0.0% division, 3.6% wild card

At this point if both teams played to expectations going forward, the Rays are slight favorites.  Boston’s not technically at 0.0% but with rounding that’s where they are right now.

Postseason odds if Tampa sweeps the next three games
Yankees: 96.1 wins, 23.5% Division, 70.4% wild card
Rays: 98.8 wins, 76.2% Division, 23.4% wild card
Red Sox: 89.7 wins, 0.3% Division, 5.4% wild card

If this scenario unfolds, not only do the Yankees’ chances for winning the AL East plummett, their overall odds of making the postseason also drop and it puts the division back in play for Boston although their chances are still microscopic.  So this shouldn’t happen because we’ve suffered long enough.

Postseason odds if Tampa takes two of the next three games
Yankees: 97.1 wins, 39.3% Division, 57.0% wild card
Rays: 97.9 wins, 60.5% Division, 39.3% wild card
Red Sox: 89.7 wins, 0.2% Division, 3.4% wild card

Probably the most likely outcome here, and one that should still keep the division in play for the Yanks, albeit with a slightly reduced probability.

Postseason odds if the Yankees take two of the next three games
Yankees: 98.1 wins, 62.5% Division, 35.8% wild card
Rays: 96.9 wins, 37.4% Division, 60.2% wild card
Red Sox: 89.7 wins, 0.1% Division, 3.4% wild card

Yeah, like that’ll happen…

Postseason odds if the Yankees sweep
Yankees: 99.2 wins, 81.4% division, 17.6% wild card
Rays: 96.0 wins, 18.6% division, 77.7% wild card
Red Sox: 89.7 wins, 0.1% division, 3.5% wild card

You can stop laughing now.

I realize that the advent of the wild card makes a lot of people care less about the division, but I still think winning the division is important.  It’s a validation of the entire organization over the marathon of 162 games.  Granted, there’s some good fortune generally needed to win it, but it’s certainly less than is needed to win a postseason series.

I also think that getting home field advantage is important.  While I believe it’s true that the majority of postseason series do not go the distance, that doesn’t necessarily reduce home field advantage to only being important if the series goes the full five or seven games.  I think part of the importance of home field advantage is the fact that you get to start the first two games of any series at home, where you are more likely to win each game. 

I don’t know if we can tease out the impact of that in any postseason series so consider it a theory with no empirical data to back it up though.

I never really cared about the 40 man roster being available to teams in September, but after watching Texas run 50 lefties out of their bullpen every night, I wonder if having seven games in September against your primary divisional rival is fair.  The Rays probably have the best farm system in MLB, and have now augmented their bullpen and bench with some of those players.  Then again, the Yankees were able to bring up Greg Golson which is also an unfair advantage.

The fact that the Yankees and Rays have seven games left against each other probably limits the usefulness of an exercise like this though.  Frankly, whichever team wins more of those seven games probably wins the East.

--Posted at 10:03 am by SG / 37 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Did The Yankees Blow Their Chance at the AL East?

On September 4, the Yankees won their eighth consecutive game and had opened up a two game edge in the loss column for the AL East. 

At this point, with 26 games left on the year they were in the driver’s seat for the AL East title

Probability of winning AL East as of September 4
Yankees: 72.0%
Tampa Bay: 28.%
Boston: 0.0%

Boston was not quite at zero, but close enough when you round to the nearest tenth.

With four more games at home to finish off the long home stand before a potentially ugly road trip coming up, the Yankees just needed to hold serve to remain in control for the division title. 

Holding court with one game versus Toronto and then three games with Baltimore at home meant something like this:

Vs. Toronto: 66% win probability
Vs. Baltimore: 80% win probability times three

So the Yankees should have won three of those four games if they wanted to keep that 72.0% probability of winning the AL East.

Instead, they’ve lost the first three of those games and now need to win this afternoon to avoid losing all four as well as a humiliating sweep AT HOME AGAINST THE HORRIBLE BALTIMORE ORIOLES.

Probability of winning AL East as of September 7
Yankees: 55.5%
Tampa Bay: 44.0%
Boston: 0.5%

So what happens if the Yankees lose today?

Yankees: 48.2%
Tampa Bay: 51.3%
Boston: 0.5%

This includes the probability of Tampa Bay winning or losing today.

Now obviously that’s closer to a toss-up than a clear Tampa Bay edge, but it now requires the Yankees to meet expectations over their last 22 games of the year, 15 of which are on the road.

Think about that again.  The Yankees have 22 games left this season after today, and only seven of them are at home.  Oh, and those seven home games are against arguably two of the top three teams in baseball.

I realize for some people the division doesn’t matter, but I’m not one of them.  I actually consider winning the division to be a major achievement worthy of respect, not a stepping stone on the way to either winning the World Series or having a failure of a season.

Because of that, these last three days have really aggravated me.  Today may end up killing me.

--Posted at 9:09 am by SG / 15 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, August 29, 2010

Updated Monte Carlo Postseason Odds Through August 29, 2010

Team W Div WC PO
Rays 99.5 52.3% 43.9% 96.1%
Yankees 99.3 47.2% 48.3% 95.5%
Rangers 90.8 93.7% 0.0% 93.7%
Padres 94.6 83.5% 5.8% 89.3%
Reds 93.7 80.2% 8.6% 88.7%
Twins 93.3 87.4% 0.3% 87.7%
Braves 93.7 71.0% 14.3% 85.3%
Phillies 90.6 27.9% 28.0% 56.0%
Cardinals 89.2 19.7% 20.7% 40.4%
Giants 88.6 13.2% 15.4% 28.6%
White Sox 87.4 11.7% 0.7% 12.4%
Red Sox 90.6 0.5% 6.7% 7.2%
Rockies 84.5 2.7% 3.9% 6.6%
Athletics 82.3 5.7% 0.0% 5.7%
Marlins 82.6 0.7% 1.6% 2.3%
Dodgers 82.5 0.6% 1.3% 1.9%
Tigers 80.8 1.0% 0.0% 1.0%
Mets 81.9 0.3% 0.4% 0.7%
Angels 77.7 0.7% 0.0% 0.7%
Blue Jays 83.2 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Brewers 75.8 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Orioles 58.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indians 67.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Royals 67.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mariners 63.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nationals 69.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cubs 68.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pirates 53.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Astros 73.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Diamondbacks 65.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

W: Final projected win total (average of 10,000 iterations)
Div: Percentage of time team won their division
WC: Percentage of time team won the wild card
PO: Percentage of time team made the playoffs (Div + WC)

The Rays’ schedule is a bit easier than the Yankees’ going forward, so they may now probably be a very slight favorite to win the East.  For all intents and purposes though, it’s a tossup.

The Rays and Yankees are currently the two most likely teams to qualify for the postseason.

Boston’s not dead yet, but they probably should get a priest prepped for administering last rites shortly.

The Rangers, Reds, Padres, Twins and Braves are all pretty big favorites to take their divisions at this point (all over 70%) and the NL wild card race looks like Philly -> St. Louis -> Giants.

Shocking no one, the Orioles, Indians, Royals, Mariners, Nationals, Cubs, Pirates, Astros and Diamondbacks are either mathematically eliminated or have a less than 1 in 10,000 likelihood of making the postseason.

--Posted at 10:55 pm by SG / 48 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, July 8, 2010

Monte Carlo Wins and Postseason Odds Report Through Games of July 7, 2010

I just realized I haven’t run my Monte Carlo simulations for wins and postseason odds since May 25, so here’s an update through yesterday’s games.

When these were last run, the Yankees were on pace for around 97 wins and they had about a 70.2% chance at making the postseason.  Their probability of taking the AL East was around 33.5%, trailing Tampa Bay who were at 51.9%.  Boston was at around 36.4% for making the postseason and 14.1% to take the AL East.

For the going forward projections, I’m using 60% 2010 Pythagenpat and 40% 2010 pre-season projections.  Team performance over the rest of the season then gets added to actual 2010 W/L to estimate each team’s projected final win total and postseason odds.

Team pW opW pW+/-
Padres 91.6 75.9 15.7
Mets 88.4 76.1 12.3
Blue Jays 76.3 65.1 11.2
Reds 91.0 80.6 10.4
Rangers 94.3 84.4 9.9
Tigers 85.1 77.9 7.2
Rays 98.3 91.2 7.1
White Sox 85.3 79.8 5.5
Braves 93.4 88.3 5.1
Twins 88.0 83.1 4.9
Yankees 100.5 96.1 4.4
Angels 82.3 78.0 4.3
Giants 85.2 81.1 4.1
Rockies 87.5 83.8 3.7
Royals 74.3 71.5 2.8
Red Sox 92.9 92.9 0.0
Marlins 79.9 80.0 -0.1
Dodgers 86.2 86.3 -0.1
Cardinals 90.3 90.6 -0.3
Athletics 77.3 79.2 -1.9
Nationals 72.6 74.8 -2.2
Phillies 86.3 89.7 -3.4
Astros 64.5 68.8 -4.3
Brewers 74.4 81.6 -7.2
Cubs 74.5 83.1 -8.6
Indians 67.0 79.9 -12.9
Mariners 67.9 81.4 -13.5
Pirates 57.2 72.3 -15.1
Diamondbacks 65.0 82.2 -17.2
Orioles 52.6 74.6 -22.0

pW: Updated projected wins as of July 7
opW: Original pre-season projected wins
pW+/-:pW - opW

This table shows how many wins every team is now projected to end the season with, sorted in descending order of improvement compared to the preseason.

Break up the Padres! 
I think I like these probabilities better than the last ones.

Team ppo% opo% po%+/-
Rangers 86.3% 38.9% 47.4%
Padres 57.6% 13.2% 44.4%
Reds 62.5% 21.3% 41.2%
Rays 75.4% 46.1% 29.3%
Braves 68.3% 42.9% 25.4%
Mets 37.5% 13.0% 24.5%
Yankees 83.0% 63.0% 20.0%
Twins 44.6% 34.8% 9.8%
Tigers 25.9% 19.9% 6.0%
Cardinals 56.3% 50.9% 5.4%
White Sox 29.3% 24.8% 4.5%
Rockies 31.9% 30.3% 1.6%
Blue Jays 0.6% 1.9% -1.3%
Giants 21.8% 23.3% -1.5%
Astros 0.0% 4.4% -4.4%
Royals 2.6% 9.3% -6.7%
Pirates 0.0% 7.6% -7.6%
Orioles 0.0% 8.3% -8.3%
Angels 12.2% 21.6% -9.4%
Dodgers 28.0% 38.5% -10.5%
Nationals 0.6% 11.1% -10.5%
Marlins 6.1% 19.3% -13.2%
Red Sox 37.0% 53.0% -16.0%
Athletics 2.7% 23.8% -21.1%
Phillies 26.3% 48.0% -21.7%
Brewers 1.4% 23.5% -22.1%
Indians 0.2% 25.4% -25.2%
Cubs 1.8% 27.2% -25.5%
Diamondbacks 0.1% 25.6% -25.6%
Mariners 0.2% 29.4% -29.2%

ppo%: Re-projected probability of making playoffs
opo%: Original projected probability of making the playoffs
po%+/-:ppo% - opo% (increase or decrease in playoff probability)

This table compares every team’s current probability of making the postseason with their pre-season projections, sorted in descending order of increase in probability.

Hard to believe that a team as awful as the Yankees are now at 83.0% to make the postseason, but that’s almost certainly due to me rigging these numbers to make the Yankees look better than they are.

FWIW, revised AL East odds are now:
WOE: 51.5%
Rays: 36.4%
16 Aces + best defense evah: 12.0%

--Posted at 2:02 pm by SG / 16 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Monte Carlo Wins and Postseason Odds Report Through Games of May 24, 2010

I last run these on April 22, and here’s what they look like now.  As a refresher, here’s description of the methodolgy.

 Team pW  opW pW+/-  gain/loss
 Rays 101.0  91.2   9.8  3.0 
 Blue Jays 74.5  65.1   9.4  7.2 
 Padres 82.9  75.9   7.0  4.8 
 Twins 88.3  83.1   5.2  0.7 
 Reds 85.6  80.6   5.0  6.9 
 Tigers 82.8  77.9   4.9  4.5 
 Phillies 94.1  89.7   4.4  0.2 
 Mets 79.3  76.1   3.2  2.1 
 Rangers 87.0  84.4   2.6  3.2 
 Nationals 76.9  74.8   2.1  1.8 
 Cardinals 92.1  90.6   1.5  -1.7 
 Athletics 80.3  79.2   1.1  -2.6 
 Yankees 97.1  96.1   1.0  -3.1 
 Dodgers 87.1  86.3   0.8  1.6 
 Rockies 83.9  83.8   0.1  -1.4 
 Marlins 80.1  80.0   0.1  0.4 
 Giants 81.1  81.1   0.0  -1.4 
 Braves 87.2  88.3   -1.1  -0.3 
 Cubs 81.6  83.1   -1.5  0.8 
 Royals 69.4  71.5   -2.1  -0.6 
 Angels 75.6  78.0   -2.4  -0.9 
 Red Sox 90.3  92.9   -2.6  2.9 
 Pirates 68.4  72.3   -3.9  -0.2 
 White Sox 75.8  79.8   -4.0  1.1 
 Diamondbacks 77.2   82.2  -5.0  -1.7 
 Brewers 76.2  81.6   -5.4  -8.5 
 Astros 62.6  68.8   -6.2  -2.6 
 Mariners 74.3  81.4   -7.1  -8.2 
 Indians 72.1  79.9   -7.8  -6.9 
 Orioles 65.3  74.6   -9.3  -1.3 

pW: Re-projected wins
opW: Original projected wins
pW+/-:pW - opW
gain/loss change from prior run

This table is sorted by overall expected improvement in terms of wins over the pre-season projections entering 2010.

The Rays continue to lead the majors in terms of how much better they now look than they did at the start of the season.  The Yankees’ have lost 3 games from what was around a 100 win pace on April 22. 

In terms of making the postseason, here’s how the probabilities look.

 Team  ppo% opo%  po%+/-  gain/loss
 Rays 80.6%  46.1%   34.5%  10.7% 
 Twins 56.9%  34.8%   22.1%  7.7% 
 Phillies 69.7%   48.0%  21.7%  6.9% 
 Rangers 57.2%  38.9%   18.3%  23.9% 
 Reds 35.2%  21.3%   13.9%  20.1% 
 Cardinals 64.4%   50.9%  13.5%  0.6% 
 Padres 25.2%  13.2%   12.0%  10.8% 
 Tigers 28.8%  19.9%   8.9%  8.4% 
 Yankees 70.2%  63.0%   7.2%  -6.4% 
 Dodgers 42.8%  38.5%   4.3%  8.1% 
 Blue Jays 2.9%  1.9%   1.0%  1.4% 
 Athletics 23.8%   23.8%  0.0%  -8.3% 
 Mets 12.7%  13.0%   -0.3%  0.6% 
 Rockies 28.4%  30.3%   -1.9%  -7.0% 
 Giants 20.4%  23.3%   -2.9%  -5.1% 
 Nationals 8.0%   11.1%  -3.1%  -2.2% 
 Astros 0.6%  4.4%   -3.8%  -1.0% 
 Marlins 14.9%  19.3%   -4.5%  -1.3% 
 Braves 37.3%  42.9%   -5.6%  -1.9% 
 Royals 3.7%  9.3%   -5.7%  -2.8% 
 Pirates 1.9%  7.6%   -5.8%  -1.3% 
 Cubs 20.2%  27.2%   -7.1%  0.4% 
 Orioles 0.2%  8.3%   -8.1%  -1.0% 
 Angels 13.0%  21.6%   -8.6%  -3.9% 
 White Sox 11.8%   24.8%  -13.1%  0.2% 
 Diamondbacks 11.2%   25.6%  -14.4%  -5.6% 
 Brewers 7.2%  23.5%   -16.3%  -22.3% 
 Red Sox 36.4%  53.0%   -16.6%  6.3% 
 Mariners 9.5%  29.4%   -19.9%  -19.9% 
 Indians 5.1%  25.4%   -20.3%  -16.4% 

The biggest gainers from the last run are the Rangers and Reds, with the Yankees losing about 6.4%.  They had about a 50% chance of winning the AL East on April 22, but that’s dropped to about 33.5% now, with Tampa Bay moving up to 51.9% and Boston moving from 8.3% to 14.1%.

One thing worth noting is the Yankees have played fewer home games than any AL team with 19, so in theory they should have a bit of an advantage going forward.

That being said, the Yankees are essentially where we should have expected them to be overall, even though the way they got there is kind of annoying. 

--Posted at 10:41 am by SG / 13 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, May 11, 2010

How Good Are The 2010 Yankees Right Now (May 11)?

Heading into 2010, the Yankees looked like a team that projected to win around 96-97 games.

A lot of that was based on an offense that projected to be the best in baseball by most projection systems.  Here’s how the primary starting lineup looked on a per game basis using their pre-season CAIRO projections for offense and defense.

 Player (projected)  Pos PA  OBP Outs  BR RS
 Derek Jeter SS  5.0  .371  3.1  0.69  -0.03 
 Nick Johnson DH  5.0  .412  2.9  0.73  0.00 
 Mark Teixeira 1B  5.0  .379  3.1  0.84  0.02 
 Alex Rodriguez 3B  5.0  .389  3.1  0.89  -0.03 
 Robinson Cano 2B  5.0  .348  3.3  0.73  0.00 
 Jorge Posada C  5.0  .352  3.2  0.70  -0.03 
 Curtis Granderson  CF 4.6  .338  3.0   0.64  0.04 
 Nick Swisher RF  4.0  .355  2.6  0.55  0.00 
 Brett Gardner LF  4.0  .348  2.6  0.48  0.02 
 Total  42.6    27.0  6.25  -0.01 

PA: # of PA in a single game
OBP:projected OBP
Outs: Outs made at the plate, equals PA times (1 minus OBP)
BR: Linear weights batting runs for listed PA

Here’s how the primary lineup has actually performed so far.

 Player (actual)  Pos PA  OBP Outs  BR RS
 Derek Jeter SS  5.0  .324  3.4  0.63  -0.10 
 Nick Johnson DH  5.0  .388  3.1  0.57  -0.03 
 Mark Teixeira 1B  5.0  .336  3.3  0.61  0.06 
 Alex Rodriguez 3B  5.0  .381  3.1  0.73  0.05 
 Robinson Cano 2B  5.0  .406  3.0  1.01  0.04 
 Jorge Posada C  5.0  .365  3.2  0.84  -0.06 
 Curtis Granderson  CF 4.6  .311  3.2   0.52  0.10 
 Nick Swisher RF  4.0  .394  2.4  0.73  -0.02 
 Brett Gardner LF  4.0  .418  2.3  0.66  0.10 
 Total  42.6    26.9  6.30  0.14 

In actuality, despite poor starts by several players, the primary starting lineup has actually exceeded those projections slightly so far this season, with the better than expected play by Robinson Cano, Jorge Posada and Nick Swisher making up for the poorer than expected play by Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter. They’ve also been better defensively thanks to better than expected play by Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano primarily.

The problem is that the desired primary starting lineup is not the lineup that the Yankees can run out there right now with Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson on the shelf.  While Granderson should be back relatively soon, Nick Johnson plus wrist injury is not something I’d expect a speedy return from.

We also have more information after 31 games which we can use to revise our pre-season projections somewhat, although the sample size is still small enough that the pre-season projections should still be the bulk of what we expect going forward.

If we assume that Joe Girardi has finally figured out that Marcus Thames in LF is not an option, here’s how the Yankees’ primary lineup at this point in time would project going forward.

Player (revised projection) Pos PA OBP Outs BR RS
Derek Jeter SS 5.0 .366 3.2 0.68 -0.03
Brett Gardner CF 5.0 .355 3.2 0.62 0.08
Mark Teixeira 1B 5.0 .375 3.1 0.82 0.03
Alex Rodriguez 3B 5.0 .388 3.1 0.87 -0.02
Robinson Cano 2B 5.0 .354 3.2 0.76 0.00
Jorge Posada C 4.8 .353 3.1 0.69 -0.04
Nick Swisher RF 4.0 .359 2.6 0.57 0.00
Marcus Thames DH 4.0 .300 2.8 0.49 0.00
Randy Winn LF 4.0 .314 2.7 0.42 0.06
Total 41.8 27.0 5.92 0.07

If we use the Yankees’ current RA against of 3.88 with the original projected starting lineup, we get a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .715, or 116 wins.  If you instead use the revised projections of the current starting lineup, you get a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .700.  That’s 113 wins.  The problem here is this alignment projects that Gardner in CF and Winn in LF is a better defensive alignment than Gardner in LF and Granderson in CF, and I think that’s overrating Winn and underrating Gardner in LF.  I don’t think it’s more than a wash, which makes it more like a .693/112 win team.  Even factoring that in, over a subset of n games where n is only a portion of 162 games, that’s not really that big of a difference.  Maybe a win or two?  If Nick Johnson is out for the year, a Juan Miranda/Thames DH platoon is probably a bit better than straight Thames as well.

Now obviously, you’re not going to get 162 games out of your starting lineup, so we have to temper those 100+ win estimates down to a more reasonable estimate, but I’m just looking at the delta for now.  We also need to assume that moving some of the bench guys to the starting lineup also weakens the bench somewhat.  We also can’t assume the Yankees will maintain a 3.88 RA going forward.  I don’t have time to do a detailed breakdown of the pitching, but I’ll summarize it.  Right now I’d project them to end the season at 709 runs allowed, an overall RA against of 4.38, which means an RA of around 4.53 going forward.  That’s assuming some regression by the starters, which is bad for four of the five, but good for the fifth starter who will not be named.  It’s also based on improvement by the bullpen, and it’s an overall improvement of about 20 runs from their pre-season runs allowed projection.  If that’s the case, the primary lineup would be more like a 108 win team, with the currently revised and re-projected lineup being more like a 104 win team, again with the caveat that we need to temper that down to account for the bench and possible future injuries.

Right now, the Yankees are still about five wins ahead of their original projected pace according to my Monte Carlo simulator.  They are projected at 101.6 wins, and with a 48.4% chance at the division and a 79.7% chance at the postseason, which is the best probability of any team.  Actually, here’s the whole list.

Team W pW w+/- ppo% opo%
Yankees 101.6 96.1 5.5 79.7% 63.0%
Cardinals 95.3 90.6 4.7 72.8% 50.9%
Rays 99.4 91.2 8.1 72.4% 46.1%
Phillies 94.5 89.7 4.8 67.2% 48.0%
Twins 89.8 83.1 6.7 61.0% 34.8%
Rangers 86.9 84.4 2.5 52.0% 38.9%
Giants 86.2 81.1 5.1 37.9% 23.3%
Red Sox 88.8 92.9 -4.1 31.6% 53.0%
Rockies 84.1 83.8 0.3 29.4% 30.3%
Athletics 81.7 79.2 2.5 28.6% 23.8%
Braves 84.5 88.3 -3.8 28.0% 42.9%
Padres 82.5 75.9 6.6 26.0% 13.2%
Tigers 81.7 77.9 3.8 25.1% 19.9%
Dodgers 82.0 86.3 -4.3 23.7% 38.5%
Brewers 81.6 81.6 0.0 21.2% 23.5%
Reds 81.6 80.6 1.0 20.0% 21.3%
Mets 80.5 76.1 4.4 18.4% 13.0%
Cubs 80.2 83.1 -2.9 17.7% 27.2%
Mariners 76.0 81.4 -5.4 13.6% 29.4%
Nationals 78.0 74.8 3.2 12.9% 11.1%
Angels 74.3 78.0 -3.7 12.5% 21.6%
Marlins 77.6 80.0 -2.4 11.6% 19.3%
White Sox 75.4 79.8 -4.4 11.3% 24.8%
Diamondbacks 76.7 82.2 -5.5 10.3% 25.6%
Indians 74.0 79.9 -5.9 7.5% 25.4%
Royals 67.8 71.5 -3.7 3.0% 9.3%
Pirates 68.5 72.3 -3.8 2.4% 7.6%
Blue Jays 70.6 65.1 5.5 1.4% 1.9%
Orioles 66.7 74.6 -7.9 0.6% 8.3%
Astros 61.5 68.8 -7.3 0.5% 4.4%

pW: Re-projected wins
opW: Original projected wins
pW+/-:pW - opW

So I guess my initial assertion that the Yankees at this moment aren’t as good as they projected to be is technically true, but not significantly so.  Apparently a two-game losing streak doesn’t mean it’s time to panic.

--Posted at 10:02 am by SG / 46 Comments | - (0)




Friday, April 30, 2010

Monte Carlo Wins and Postseason Odds Report through Games of April 29, 2010

It’s been a week since I last ran these, so here’s an updated look at the estimated wins and playoff probabilities.

Team pW opW pW+/- gain/loss
Rays 98.7 91.2 7.5 0.7
Mets 81.0 76.1 4.9 3.8
Padres 80.3 75.9 4.4 2.2
Cardinals 94.5 90.6 3.9 0.7
Twins 86.8 83.1 3.7 -0.8
Yankees 99.1 96.1 3.0 -1.1
Tigers 80.2 77.9 2.3 1.9
Giants 83.2 81.1 2.1 0.8
Athletics 81.3 79.2 2.1 -1.6
Nationals 76.6 74.8 1.8 1.5
Phillies 91.2 89.7 1.5 -2.7
Rockies 84.8 83.8 1.0 -0.5
Blue Jays 65.7 65.1 0.6 -1.6
Mariners 81.5 81.4 0.1 -1.0
Reds 80.4 80.6 -0.2 1.7
Diamondbacks 81.9 82.2 -0.3 3.0
Angels 77.5 78.0 -0.5 1.0
Cubs 82.0 83.1 -1.1 1.2
Rangers 83.2 84.4 -1.2 -0.6
Marlins 78.7 80.0 -1.3 -1.0
Indians 78.2 79.9 -1.7 -0.8
Pirates 70.1 72.3 -2.2 1.5
Brewers 79.2 81.6 -2.4 -5.5
Red Sox 90.4 92.9 -2.5 3.0
Astros 66.2 68.8 -2.6 1.0
White Sox 77.2 79.8 -2.6 2.5
Royals 68.3 71.5 -3.2 -1.7
Dodgers 81.6 86.3 -4.7 -3.9
Braves 83.4 88.3 -4.9 -4.1
Orioles 67.0 74.6 -7.6 0.4

pW: Re-projected wins
opW: Original projected wins
pW+/-:pW - opW
gain/loss change from prior run

I’ve added a new column which shows the change from the prior run.  So pW+/- shows the change from the pre-season projections, and gain/loss shows the change from the last time these were run.  Taking the Yankees as an example, they’re still three wins ahead of their originally projected win total, but their estimated win total dropped by about a win since the last time these were run.

The Rays are still the team that’s furthest ahead of where they were projected, but when we projected them coming into the season we assumed incorrectly that the league would not roll over for them.  I’m calling on Bud Selig for an investigation.  And break up the Mets, this week’s biggest gainers.

Looking at it in terms of playoff probabilities:

 Team  ppo% opo%  po%+/-  gain/loss
 Rays 70.6%  46.1%   24.5%  0.7% 
 Cardinals 68.6%   50.9%  17.7%  4.8% 
 Twins 46.8%  34.8%   12.0%  -2.4% 
 Phillies 56.8%   48.0%  8.8%  -6.0% 
 Yankees 71.8%  63.0%   8.8%  -4.8% 
 Mets 20.8%  13.0%   7.8%  8.7% 
 Padres 20.3%  13.2%   7.1%  5.9% 
 Giants 28.8%  23.3%   5.5%  3.3% 
 Athletics 28.0%   23.8%  4.2%  -4.1% 
 Rockies 34.0%  30.3%   3.7%  -1.4% 
 Tigers 23.2%  19.9%   3.3%  2.8% 
 Nationals 12.0%   11.1%  0.9%  1.8% 
 Diamondbacks 24.7%   25.6%  -0.9%  7.9% 
 Blue Jays 1.0%  1.9%   -0.9%  -0.5% 
 Mariners 28.0%   29.4%  -1.4%  -1.4% 
 Reds 19.3%  21.3%   -2.0%  4.2% 
 Astros 1.8%  4.4%   -2.6%  0.2% 
 Marlins 16.2%  19.3%   -3.1%  0.1% 
 Pirates 4.2%  7.6%   -3.4%  1.1% 
 Angels 17.9%  21.6%   -3.7%  1.0% 
 Cubs 23.5%  27.2%   -3.7%  3.8% 
 Rangers 34.8%  38.9%   -4.1%  1.5% 
 Royals 4.4%  9.3%   -4.9%  -2.0% 
 Brewers 16.8%  23.5%   -6.7%  -12.7% 
 Indians 18.2%  25.4%   -7.2%  -3.3% 
 Orioles 1.0%  8.3%   -7.3%  -0.2% 
 White Sox 15.9%   24.8%  -8.9%  4.4% 
 Dodgers 24.2%  38.5%   -14.3%  -10.5% 
 Red Sox 38.4%  53.0%   -14.6%  8.3% 
 Braves 27.9%  42.9%   -15.0%  -11.3% 

ppo%: Re-projected probability of making playoffs
opo%: Original projected probability of making the playoffs
po%+/-:ppo% - opo% (increase or decrease in playoff probability)
gain/loss change from prior run

I preferred the version of this chart that had Boston at the bottom.

The Yankees are still ahead of their pre-season projections, but lost some ground this week.  Here’s how the division races shape up at this point.

 Date  4/30/2010       
 Iterations  10000        
 American League         
 TM W  L RS  RA Div  WC
 Yankees 99.1  62.9   883  717  42.5%  29.4% 
 Rays 98.7  63.3   822  684  41.2%  29.4% 
 Red Sox 90.4  71.6   817  699  15.9%  22.5% 
 Blue Jays 67.0  95.0   746  819  0.2%  0.8% 
 Orioles 65.7  96.3   684  819  0.2%  0.8% 
 TM W  L RS  RA Div  WC
 Twins 86.8  75.2   827  804  44.3%  2.5% 
 Tigers 80.2  81.8   743  780  21.0%  2.2% 
 Indians 78.2  83.8   784  814  16.3%  2.0% 
 White Sox 77.2  84.8   739  773  14.4%  1.5% 
 Royals 68.3  93.7   719  826  4.0%  0.5% 
 TM W  L RS  RA Div  WC
 Rangers 83.2  78.8   781  754  32.6%  2.1% 
 Angels 81.5  80.5   717  703  25.4%  2.6% 
 Athletics 81.3  80.7   729  725  25.7%  2.4% 
 Mariners 77.5  84.5   756  788  16.4%  1.5% 
 National League         
 TM W  L RS  RA Div  WC
 Phillies 91.2  70.8   825  725  47.2%  9.6% 
 Marlins 83.4  78.6   760  709  19.7%  8.2% 
 Mets 81.0  81.0   772  788  14.4%  6.5% 
 Braves 78.7  83.3   752  773  10.8%  5.4% 
 Nationals 76.6  85.4   714  779  7.9%  4.2% 
 TM W  L RS  RA Div  WC
 Cardinals 94.5  67.5   751  668  59.8%  8.8% 
 Cubs 82.0  80.0   739  727  14.9%  8.6% 
 Brewers 80.4  81.6   728  743  11.8%  7.6% 
 Reds 79.2  82.8   765  769  10.0%  6.8% 
 Astros 70.1  91.9   683  799  2.5%  1.7% 
 Pirates 66.2  95.8   655  785  1.1%  0.6% 
 TM W  L RS  RA Div  WC
 Rockies 84.8  77.2   784  742  26.5%  7.5% 
 Padres 83.2  78.8   701  693  22.3%  6.5% 
 Giants 81.9  80.1   743  724  18.4%  6.4% 
 Dodgers 81.6  80.4   759  715  18.1%  6.1% 
 Diamondbacks 80.3   81.7  673  708  14.8%  5.5% 

W: Projected 2010 wins
L: Projected 2010 losses
RS: Projected 2010 runs scored
RA: Projected 2010 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage

At this point the Yanks and Rays are effectively in a dead heat.

--Posted at 7:43 am by SG / 33 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, April 22, 2010

Monte Carlo Wins and Postseason Odds Report through Games of April 22, 2010

Using the same methodology as in this post, but I’ve increased the weight of 2010 actual performance to 10% for the teams going forward projections.

First up, here’s how teams’ win projections have changed from their pre-season projections.

Team pW opW pW+/-
Rays 98.0 91.2 6.8
Twins 87.6 83.1 4.5
Phillies 93.9 89.7 4.2
Yankees 100.2 96.1 4.1
Athletics 82.9 79.2 3.7
Cardinals 93.8 90.6 3.2
Brewers 84.7 81.6 3.1
Blue Jays 67.3 65.1 2.2
Padres 78.1 75.9 2.2
Rockies 85.3 83.8 1.5
Giants 82.4 81.1 1.3
Mariners 82.5 81.4 1.1
Mets 77.2 76.1 1.1
Tigers 78.3 77.9 0.4
Nationals 75.1 74.8 0.3
Marlins 79.7 80.0 -0.3
Rangers 83.8 84.4 -0.6
Braves 87.5 88.3 -0.8
Dodgers 85.5 86.3 -0.8
Indians 79.0 79.9 -0.9
Royals 70.0 71.5 -1.5
Angels 76.5 78.0 -1.5
Reds 78.7 80.6 -1.9
Cubs 80.8 83.1 -2.3
Diamondbacks 78.9 82.2 -3.3
Astros 65.2 68.8 -3.6
Pirates 68.6 72.3 -3.7
White Sox 74.7 79.8 -5.1
Red Sox 87.4 92.9 -5.5
Orioles 66.6 74.6 -8.0

pW: Re-projected wins
opW: Original projected wins
pW+/-:pW - opW

Break up the Rays!  Seriously.  They scare me.

And what those changes in win forecasts mean for the teams’ chances at making the postseason:

Team ppo% opo% po%+/-
Rays 69.9% 46.1% 23.8%
Phillies 62.8% 48.0% 14.8%
Twins 49.2% 34.8% 14.4%
Yankees 76.6% 63.0% 13.6%
Cardinals 63.8% 50.9% 12.9%
Athletics 32.1% 23.8% 8.3%
Brewers 29.5% 23.5% 6.0%
Rockies 35.4% 30.3% 5.1%
Giants 25.5% 23.3% 2.2%
Padres 14.4% 13.2% 1.2%
Tigers 20.4% 19.9% 0.5%
Mariners 29.4% 29.4% 0.0%
Blue Jays 1.5% 1.9% -0.5%
Mets 12.1% 13.0% -0.9%
Nationals 10.2% 11.1% -0.9%
Astros 1.6% 4.4% -2.8%
Royals 6.4% 9.3% -2.9%
Marlins 16.1% 19.3% -3.2%
Braves 39.2% 42.9% -3.7%
Dodgers 34.7% 38.5% -3.8%
Indians 21.5% 25.4% -3.9%
Pirates 3.1% 7.6% -4.5%
Angels 16.9% 21.6% -4.7%
Rangers 33.3% 38.9% -5.6%
Reds 15.1% 21.3% -6.2%
Orioles 1.2% 8.3% -7.1%
Cubs 19.7% 27.2% -7.5%
Diamondbacks 16.8% 25.6% -8.8%
White Sox 11.5% 24.8% -13.4%
Red Sox 30.1% 53.0% -22.9%

ppo%: Re-projected probability of making playoffs
opo%: Original projected probability of making the playoffs
po%+/-:ppo% - opo% (increase or decrease in playoff probability)

As long as the Red Sox stay at the bottom of this list, I will be a happy man.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled complaint thread.

--Posted at 10:37 pm by SG / 46 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, April 18, 2010

What Does What’s Happened So Far in 2010 Tell Us? (Re-visited)

With another Yankee win and Red Sox loss in the books, I figured I’d run another set of Monte Carlo simulations using the same methodology as in this post.

Team pW opW pW+/-
Twins 87.4 83.1 4.3
Athletics 83.4 79.2 4.2
Rays 95.3 91.2 4.1
Giants 84.9 81.1 3.8
Phillies 93.1 89.7 3.4
Yankees 99.5 96.1 3.4
Cardinals 92.3 90.6 1.7
Blue Jays 66.3 65.1 1.2
Pirates 73.1 72.3 0.8
Tigers 78.6 77.9 0.7
Rockies 84.5 83.8 0.7
Braves 88.8 88.3 0.5
Marlins 80.5 80.0 0.5
Padres 76.3 75.9 0.4
Mets 76.1 76.1 0.0
Indians 79.5 79.9 -0.4
Mariners 80.9 81.4 -0.5
Dodgers 85.7 86.3 -0.6
Nationals 74.1 74.8 -0.7
Royals 70.8 71.5 -0.7
Cubs 82.3 83.1 -0.8
Rangers 83.5 84.4 -0.9
Diamondbacks 81.1 82.2 -1.1
Reds 78.7 80.6 -1.9
Angels 76.0 78.0 -2.0
Brewers 79.5 81.6 -2.1
White Sox 76.7 79.8 -3.1
Red Sox 88.8 92.9 -4.1
Astros 64.2 68.8 -4.6
Orioles 68.3 74.6 -6.3

pW: Re-projected wins
opW: Original projected wins
pW+/-:pW - opW

Team ppo% opo% po%+/-
Rays 60.4% 46.1% 14.3%
Twins 47.9% 34.8% 13.1%
Phillies 59.4% 48.0% 11.4%
Yankees 73.9% 63.0% 10.9%
Athletics 34.4% 23.8% 10.6%
Giants 32.5% 23.3% 9.2%
Cardinals 59.9% 50.9% 9.0%
Braves 44.1% 42.9% 1.2%
Rockies 31.2% 30.3% 0.9%
Tigers 20.1% 19.9% 0.2%
Pirates 7.5% 7.6% -0.1%
Blue Jays 1.6% 1.9% -0.3%
Marlins 18.6% 19.3% -0.7%
Padres 11.3% 13.2% -1.9%
Mariners 27.1% 29.4% -2.3%
Royals 7.0% 9.3% -2.3%
Cubs 24.5% 27.2% -2.7%
Mets 10.1% 13.0% -2.9%
Astros 1.4% 4.4% -3.0%
Dodgers 35.3% 38.5% -3.2%
Nationals 7.8% 11.1% -3.3%
Rangers 35.5% 38.9% -3.4%
Indians 21.8% 25.4% -3.6%
Diamondbacks 21.5% 25.6% -4.1%
Reds 16.5% 21.3% -4.8%
Brewers 18.3% 23.5% -5.2%
Orioles 2.3% 8.3% -6.0%
Angels 15.3% 21.6% -6.3%
White Sox 15.8% 24.8% -9.0%
Red Sox 36.9% 53.0% -16.1%

ppo%: Re-projected probability of making playoffs
opo%: Original projected probability of making the playoffs
po%+/-:ppo% - opo% (increase or decrease in playoff probability)

By winning two more games than they should have against Boston in Fenway, the Rays have jumped past the Twins as the team who’s improved their playoff probabilites the most.  Boston loses a few more percentage points, because they should have taken two of three from Tampa Bay at home, instead of losing all three.

Like the Rays, the Yankees picked up another few percentage points on their playoff chances as well.  We’ll have to see if they can sustain this pace with the dreaded West Coast trip coming up.  I’ll put up an updated log5 look at the West Coast swing later on Monday.

--Posted at 11:18 pm by SG / 77 Comments | - (0)



What Does What’s Happened So Far in 2010 Tell Us?

Although the MLB season is only about 6% complete, we can look at what’s happened to this point combined with what was projected to happen and see what’s changed. 

Now obviously, it’s too soon to think that how a team has played to this point is representative of how they should be expected to play going forward, but games have actually been won and lost so far, and adding that to the expectations going foward can be informative, which is the purpose of this post.

To do this, I’ve run 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations for the rest of the season which weigh the aggregate results of the 2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout as 95% of a team’s going-forward projection combined with 5% of a team’s YTD actual performance in terms of runs scored and runs allowed.  The results of that get added to the team’s actual win/loss total so far to get a new revised win projection.  We can then look at which team’s fortunes have changed the most.

First, here’s a list of the teams sorted in descending order based on how many additional games they would project to win now.

Team pW opW pW+/-
Twins 88.9 83.1 5.8
Athletics 84.1 79.2 4.9
Giants 85.2 81.1 4.1
Phillies 93.6 89.7 3.9
Rays 94.4 91.2 3.2
Yankees 98.8 96.1 2.7
Blue Jays 67.1 65.1 2.0
Cardinals 92.4 90.6 1.8
Rockies 85.4 83.8 1.6
Marlins 80.7 80.0 0.7
Mariners 81.7 81.4 0.3
Rangers 84.5 84.4 0.1
Pirates 72.4 72.3 0.1
Cubs 83.2 83.1 0.1
Braves 88.2 88.3 -0.1
Padres 75.6 75.9 -0.3
Nationals 74.5 74.8 -0.3
Tigers 77.5 77.9 -0.4
Diamondbacks 81.8 82.2 -0.4
Mets 75.6 76.1 -0.5
Reds 79.8 80.6 -0.8
Indians 79.1 79.9 -0.8
Royals 70.0 71.5 -1.5
Dodgers 84.6 86.3 -1.7
Red Sox 90.3 92.9 -2.6
Brewers 78.9 81.6 -2.7
White Sox 76.6 79.8 -3.2
Angels 74.7 78.0 -3.3
Astros 63.2 68.8 -5.6
Orioles 67.4 74.6 -7.2

pW: Re-projected wins
opW: Original projected wins
pW+/-: pW - opW

So far, the Twins performance combined with how they’d project to do going forward shows an increase of six wins.  It doesn’t necessarily mean they’ve been lucky, it could also mean their projections were wrong.  More likely, the truth lies somewhere in the middle of those two extremes. 

Other teams of interest to us as AL East fans are the Rays and Red Sox.  The Rays have picked up three games on their projections and now look like the favorites for the wild card.  While I do still think Boston’s a good team, they’d now have to be four games better than the Yankees and Rays to catch them.  That doesn’t mean they can’t do it, especially with all the head-to-head games they have remaining, it’s just something that looks like it will be difficult to do on virtual paper. 

Looking around the rest of the league briefly, we see the Athletics, Giants, Phillies and Cardinals joining the Yanks and Twins as the biggest gainers in each division.

We can also look at these results in terms of how each team’s probability of making the playoffs has changed, so here’s that list.

Team ppo% opo% po%+/-
Twins 53.5% 34.8% 18.7%
Phillies 59.7% 48.0% 11.7%
Athletics 33.7% 23.8% 9.9%
Rays 56.0% 46.1% 9.9%
Giants 32.4% 23.3% 9.1%
Cardinals 59.7% 50.9% 8.8%
Yankees 70.9% 63.0% 7.9%
Rockies 32.3% 30.3% 2.0%
Cubs 27.5% 27.2% 0.3%
Blue Jays 1.9% 1.9% 0.0%
Mariners 29.4% 29.4% 0.0%
Marlins 18.8% 19.3% -0.5%
Pirates 7.1% 7.6% -0.5%
Braves 41.2% 42.9% -1.7%
Rangers 37.1% 38.9% -1.9%
Reds 19.4% 21.3% -1.9%
Padres 10.7% 13.2% -2.5%
Mets 10.4% 13.0% -2.6%
Royals 6.6% 9.3% -2.7%
Tigers 16.6% 19.9% -3.3%
Astros 1.1% 4.4% -3.3%
Diamondbacks 22.1% 25.6% -3.5%
Nationals 7.6% 11.1% -3.5%
Dodgers 34.8% 38.5% -3.7%
Indians 20.5% 25.4% -4.9%
Orioles 1.9% 8.3% -6.4%
Brewers 15.2% 23.5% -8.3%
White Sox 16.3% 24.8% -8.5%
Angels 12.4% 21.6% -9.2%
Red Sox 43.1% 53.0% -9.9%

ppo%: Re-projected probability of making playoffs
opo%: Original projected probability of making the playoffs
po%+/-: ppo% - opo% (increase or decrease in playoff probability)

The Twins have made the biggest gain in likelihood of making the postseason.  I’ll admit, it doesn’t upset me to see the Anaheim Angels and Red Sox with the biggest drops to this point.

--Posted at 9:12 am by SG / 13 Comments | - (0)



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