Replacement Level Yankees Weblog

THT: More sliders, more success for Logan
(13 Comments - 5/17/2012 4:19:58 pm)

THT: 10th anniversary: Giambi’s walk-off slam
(11 Comments - 5/17/2012 3:49:43 pm)

Yankees.com: Onslaught helps Drabek drop Yankees
(23 Comments - 5/17/2012 1:06:25 pm)

Yankees (20-16) @ Blue Jays (19-18), Wednesday, May 16, 2012, 7:07pm **Game Chatter**
(45 Comments - 5/16/2012 10:52:22 pm)

Yahoo: Yankees-Blue Jays Preview
(17 Comments - 5/16/2012 6:58:05 pm)

Beyond the Box Score: A PITCHf/x Look At Eight Rookie Starters
(13 Comments - 5/16/2012 11:21:29 am)

Yankees.com: Without much help, CC handed first defeat
(14 Comments - 5/16/2012 10:22:31 am)

Yankees (20-15) @ Orioles (22-14), Tuesday, May 15, 2012, 7:05 pm
(39 Comments - 5/15/2012 10:01:33 pm)

Yankees.com: Yanks place new closer Robertson on DL
(2 Comments - 5/15/2012 6:51:35 pm)

Player A vs. Player B
(34 Comments - 5/15/2012 5:10:18 pm)


Player	Current	Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

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Tuesday, May 8, 2012

The Postseason Implications of This Week’s Series with Tampa Bay

The Yankees begin a six game homestand tonight with Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is tied for first place with Baltimore, but it’s a pretty safe bet that they’re better than Baltimore and are a bigger threat to the Yankees’ chances at winning the division.

At the beginning of the season, the Yankees projected about three games better than Tampa Bay (94 wins vs. 91 wins) but the Rays now have a 3.5 game lead and the Yankees are a bit weaker with Michael Pineda on the shelf. Based on what’s happened so far and playing out the rest of the season according to how the teams project going forward gives me a final AL East standings projection that looks something like this.

TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC1	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rays	91	71	761	682	44.6%	26.0%	12.8%	83.4%	2.1	-4	-1
Yankees	91	71	833	718	42.8%	26.0%	13.2%	82.0%	-3.7	-4	6
Red Sox	84	78	841	769	6.9%	9.2%	16.6%	32.7%	-7.1	12	35
Blue Jays	82	80	773	755	4.9%	8.3%	13.4%	26.6%	1.2	0	-21
Orioles	78	84	719	783	0.9%	2.3%	4.8%	8.0%	8.3	6	-36

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: 2012 revised projected wins minus 2012 pre-season projected wins
RS+/-: 2012 revised projected runs scored minus 2012 pre-season projected runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2012 revised projected runs allowed minus 2012 pre-season projected runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

The pitching matchups for this series are as follows.

Tuesday, May 8: The Undefeated James Shields (5-0, 3.05 ERA) vs. Ivan Nova (3-1, 5.58 ERA)
Wednesday, May 9: Jeff Niemann (2-3, 4.05 ERA) vs. David Phelps (0-1, 3.74 ERA)
Thursday, May 10: David Price (5-1, 2.35 ERA) vs. CC Sabathia (4-0, 4.15 ERA)

So here are how the standings and postseason odds change based on the various potential outcomes of this series.

Rays 3-0	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC1	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rays	93	69	761	682	61.0%	18.8%	8.3%	88.1%	3.8	-4	-1
Yankees	89	73	833	718	26.2%	28.5%	17.0%	71.7%	-5.3	-4	6
Red Sox	83	79	841	769	5.6%	11.7%	15.4%	32.8%	-7.5	12	35
Blue Jays	83	79	773	755	6.2%	10.2%	15.1%	31.5%	1.5	0	-21
Orioles	78	84	719	783	1.0%	2.8%	5.4%	9.2%	8.3	6	-36

Rays 2-1	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC1	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rays	92	70	761	682	51.9%	21.4%	12.5%	85.7%	2.7	-4	-1
Yankees	90	72	833	718	36.4%	26.4%	14.6%	77.4%	-4.3	-4	6
Red Sox	83	79	841	769	5.6%	10.5%	16.7%	32.8%	-7.4	12	35
Blue Jays	83	79	773	755	5.4%	9.6%	12.9%	27.9%	1.4	0	-21
Orioles	78	84	719	783	0.8%	2.0%	6.5%	9.3%	8.0	6	-36

Yankees 2-1	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC1	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Yankees	91	71	833	718	44.7%	24.9%	13.9%	83.5%	-3.4	-4	6
Rays	91	71	761	682	40.4%	24.5%	13.2%	78.1%	1.8	-4	-1
Red Sox	83	79	841	769	7.9%	9.9%	16.1%	34.0%	-7.2	12	35
Blue Jays	82	80	773	755	5.5%	8.4%	12.7%	26.5%	1.2	0	-21
Orioles	78	84	719	783	1.5%	3.0%	5.7%	10.2%	8.2	6	-36

Yankees 3-0	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC1	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Yankees	92	70	833	718	52.1%	22.1%	11.3%	85.5%	-2.6	-4	6
Rays	90	72	761	682	33.9%	26.6%	15.7%	76.2%	0.8	-4	-1
Red Sox	84	78	841	769	7.7%	11.2%	15.1%	34.0%	-7.1	12	35
Blue Jays	82	80	773	755	5.1%	7.6%	14.5%	27.2%	1.2	0	-21
Orioles	78	84	719	783	1.1%	2.4%	6.4%	10.0%	8.4	6	-36

Sure, it’s early. And yes, the Yankees play the Rays enough times over the rest of the season to make up any ground they lose in this series, but this is still a pretty important series. You might even say it’s the most important series of the season so far.

--Posted at 9:45 am by SG / 23 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, April 22, 2012

How have the first two weeks of the 2012 MLB season changed team projections?

We’re roughly about 10% of the way throught the 2012 regular season, which is a pretty small sample size to make sweeping observations about how good or bad teams are. That doesn’t mean that what’s happened to this point isn’t important, because it is. I wanted to see what teams have seen the biggest shifts in their outlooks based on how they projected coming into the year compared what they have done since.

The way I looked at this involves three basic steps.

1) Get 2012 projections. In this case I’m using the average of the 2012 MLB projection blowout that I ran at the beginning of April.
2) Estimate revised team strength. For now, this is just a basic weighted average of the team’s projections heading into the year and their Pythagenpat performance to this point. I’m not making any adjustments for injuries/roster changes/etc., yet, although as we get deeper into the season I’ll probably do that.
3) Run the rest of the 2012 MLB season through my Monte Carlo simulator and see what happens. This includes a variable that alters team strength in each iteration to account for things that projections can’t account for.

Here’s what it says.

Date	4/22/2012
Iterations	100000
American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC1	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Yankees	94	68	848	718	49.0%	14.1%	24.0%	87.1%	-0.8	12	7
Rays	87	75	764	695	23.9%	15.0%	34.6%	73.5%	-2.0	-1	12
Red Sox	83	79	828	765	13.9%	11.2%	28.1%	53.1%	-7.6	-2	32
Blue Jays	81	81	780	775	11.6%	7.8%	21.4%	40.9%	-0.5	6	0
Orioles	70	92	712	812	1.6%	1.9%	6.2%	9.7%	0.1	-1	-6
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Tigers	88	74	780	730	46.6%	6.1%	17.7%	70.4%	2.9	-4	-6
Indians	86	76	779	758	33.4%	8.2%	22.3%	63.9%	3.6	12	7
White Sox	78	84	706	755	11.2%	4.4%	12.9%	28.5%	1.6	-1	-18
Royals	70	92	697	771	4.5%	0.8%	5.6%	10.9%	-4.8	-8	6
Twins	70	92	720	824	4.2%	0.9%	3.7%	8.8%	-1.6	-11	3
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	99	63	822	679	78.2%	7.4%	8.0%	93.6%	8.4	15	-24
Angels	85	77	738	667	17.0%	16.4%	28.9%	62.3%	-5.1	-3	6
Mariners	73	89	672	734	2.8%	3.2%	7.8%	13.8%	-1.5	-10	-7
Athletics	72	90	687	739	2.0%	2.8%	9.0%	13.8%	-4.1	-20	-17
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Braves	90	72	734	664	32.5%	11.3%	23.7%	67.5%	2.3	20	-2
Phillies	88	74	677	611	25.9%	12.4%	21.6%	59.9%	-1.4	-21	-17
Nationals	88	74	674	639	27.5%	10.4%	24.4%	62.3%	3.8	-8	-17
Marlins	82	80	699	672	11.3%	8.4%	18.2%	37.9%	-1.8	-8	-9
Mets	74	88	677	749	2.8%	3.0%	8.5%	14.3%	0.2	-6	-3
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Cardinals	94	68	740	662	53.9%	10.5%	16.8%	81.1%	7.2	9	-17
Brewers	86	76	700	677	21.2%	9.5%	19.0%	49.7%	1.2	1	13
Reds	84	78	699	665	18.7%	9.6%	21.5%	49.7%	-2.9	-16	5
Pirates	73	89	639	726	3.3%	1.8%	6.2%	11.3%	1.5	-29	-26
Cubs	68	94	652	757	1.8%	1.6%	2.8%	6.2%	-3.2	-4	7
Astros	66	96	607	747	1.2%	0.3%	1.2%	2.7%	1.9	3	-8
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Giants	85	77	672	649	29.6%	5.3%	14.9%	49.8%	0.6	0	2
Dodgers	83	79	649	674	22.7%	5.3%	11.1%	39.1%	8.1	8	-17
Diamondbacks	83	79	687	677	22.8%	4.3%	14.1%	41.2%	-1.3	-6	3
Rockies	81	81	751	744	20.1%	4.9%	12.6%	37.6%	-1.2	3	13
Padres	72	90	638	690	4.8%	1.4%	5.1%	11.3%	-3.5	-9	2

Good thing for Cliff Lee he signed with the young upstart Phillies instead of the old decrepit Yankees. And remember how the Rangers and Angels looked to be neck and neck heading into the year? Yeah. The Dodgers seem to have snuck their way into the division race now, but other than that the division standings look pretty similar to how they did entering the season.

And here’s a chart that shows the changes in revised team wins projections for each team.

TM	W+/-
Rangers	8.4
Dodgers	8.1
Cardinals	7.2
Nationals	3.8
Indians	3.6
Tigers	2.9
Braves	2.3
Astros	1.9
White Sox	1.6
Pirates	1.5
Brewers	1.2
Giants	0.6
Mets	0.2
Orioles	0.1
Blue Jays	-0.5
Yankees	-0.8
Rockies	-1.2
Diamondbacks	-1.3
Phillies	-1.4
Mariners	-1.5
Twins	-1.6
Marlins	-1.8
Rays	-2.0
Reds	-2.9
Cubs	-3.2
Padres	-3.5
Athletics	-4.1
Royals	-4.8
Angels	-5.1
Red Sox	-7.6

The Rangers have been destroying the competition and look like they’re probably the best team in baseball. The Dodgers and Cardinals are the biggest positive surprises in the National League so far. The Angels are the biggest disappointment in the AL.

But the Red Sox have to be the most pleasant surprise in baseball for me.

--Posted at 9:17 am by SG / 62 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout - Oliver Edition

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL East	NYA	94	68	801	683	56.0%	22.7%	7.6%	86.4%	84 - 104
AL East	BOS	90	72	798	719	26.6%	27.3%	12.6%	66.5%	80 - 100
AL East	TAM	86	76	749	701	11.3%	18.2%	9.3%	38.7%	76 - 96
AL East	TOR	83	79	751	733	6.1%	10.0%	9.8%	25.9%	73 - 93
AL East	BAL	71	91	684	781	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%	0.7%	61 - 81
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL Central	DET	88	74	760	696	67.2%	1.5%	14.1%	82.7%	78 - 98
AL Central	CHA	79	83	695	711	13.0%	2.4%	5.5%	20.9%	69 - 89
AL Central	CLE	79	83	753	771	12.9%	1.9%	5.9%	20.7%	69 - 89
AL Central	KC	76	86	705	754	4.7%	0.7%	2.4%	7.7%	66 - 86
AL Central	MIN	73	89	716	793	2.2%	0.4%	1.4%	3.9%	63 - 83
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL West	LAA	88	74	730	668	52.4%	5.7%	14.5%	72.5%	78 - 98
AL West	TEX	87	75	762	706	42.3%	7.2%	12.2%	61.8%	77 - 97
AL West	SEA	77	85	686	724	3.9%	1.2%	3.7%	8.7%	67 - 87
AL West	OAK	74	88	707	767	1.5%	0.7%	1.3%	3.5%	64 - 84

AL	WC1	91
AL	WC2	88

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL East	ATL	89	73	687	625	37.8%	17.0%	10.0%	64.8%	79 - 99
NL East	MIA	87	75	677	627	28.3%	13.3%	9.9%	51.5%	77 - 97
NL East	PHI	86	76	680	632	21.5%	14.6%	11.2%	47.3%	76 - 96
NL East	WAS	84	78	667	646	12.3%	11.6%	9.3%	33.2%	74 - 94
NL East	NYN	72	90	654	726	0.1%	0.5%	0.6%	1.1%	62 - 82
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL Central	CIN	91	71	695	615	63.2%	8.3%	10.4%	81.9%	81 - 101
NL Central	STL	86	76	707	666	27.1%	12.3%	10.3%	49.7%	76 - 96
NL Central	MIL	81	81	672	672	8.1%	5.8%	6.5%	20.3%	71 - 91
NL Central	CHN	73	89	646	716	1.4%	0.3%	1.2%	3.0%	63 - 83
NL Central	PIT	70	92	649	748	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	60 - 80
NL Central	HOU	66	96	603	729	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	0.5%	56 - 76
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL West	COL	86	76	708	665	44.2%	5.7%	10.7%	60.6%	76 - 96
NL West	ARI	83	79	665	649	24.3%	4.6%	8.3%	37.2%	73 - 93
NL West	SF	83	79	654	640	25.9%	3.9%	8.0%	37.8%	73 - 93
NL West	LAN	75	87	636	683	3.2%	1.5%	2.6%	7.2%	65 - 85
NL West	SD	74	88	649	702	2.4%	0.5%	1.4%	4.3%	64 - 84

NL	WC1	90
NL	WC2	87

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
PS%: Total percentage team qualified for the postseason (DIV + WC1 + WC2)
W 1 Std: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 8:30 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout - Marcel Edition

Marcel was developed by Tangotiger of The Book fame.

Although it’s considered the most basic projection system, it is generally as good as any other system since added complexity really hasn’t shown to add all that much accuracy over Marcel, and the principles behind it are solid and should be the basis for any good forecasting system. Marcel tends to regress more heavily towards the mean, so the standings here will be more compressed in the other systems. Marcel does not factor in minor league performance or performances in other leagues, and does not adjust for park. Any player who has not played in MLB will project as average. In Marcel, Tsuyoshi Wada and Yu Darvish have the same projection for example, so keep that in mind as you peruse the standings.

Here’s how it sees things looking in 2012.

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL East	NYA	92	70	800	695	46.3%	21.2%	9.2%	76.7%	82 - 102
AL East	BOS	89	73	801	727	26.7%	23.2%	11.1%	61.1%	79 - 99
AL East	TAM	88	74	754	681	20.6%	20.9%	12.3%	53.8%	78 - 98
AL East	TOR	84	78	753	733	6.5%	11.6%	8.3%	26.3%	74 - 94
AL East	BAL	68	94	682	802	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%	58 - 78
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL Central	DET	84	78	756	723	41.0%	1.5%	9.9%	52.4%	74 - 94
AL Central	CLE	83	79	755	738	33.7%	2.0%	8.4%	44.1%	73 - 93
AL Central	CHA	79	83	697	714	13.1%	2.0%	5.1%	20.2%	69 - 89
AL Central	KC	78	84	708	735	11.0%	1.2%	3.6%	15.7%	68 - 88
AL Central	MIN	70	92	711	818	1.3%	0.2%	0.4%	1.8%	60 - 80
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL West	LAA	87	75	725	671	44.6%	5.7%	13.0%	63.3%	77 - 97
AL West	TEX	87	75	762	703	40.3%	7.1%	11.3%	58.6%	77 - 97
AL West	OAK	80	82	710	715	10.9%	2.2%	5.4%	18.5%	70 - 90
AL West	SEA	77	85	680	721	4.2%	1.0%	2.6%	7.8%	67 - 87

AL	WC1	91
AL	WC2	88

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL East	PHI	90	72	729	651	47.0%	13.3%	9.9%	70.1%	80 - 100
NL East	ATL	88	74	729	668	32.2%	17.5%	11.1%	60.8%	78 - 98
NL East	WAS	85	77	710	681	15.6%	14.0%	8.9%	38.5%	75 - 95
NL East	MIA	80	82	715	727	4.8%	4.9%	7.1%	16.8%	70 - 90
NL East	NYN	74	88	698	759	0.6%	0.9%	1.6%	3.1%	64 - 84
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL Central	CIN	89	73	734	664	54.2%	8.5%	9.8%	72.5%	79 - 99
NL Central	STL	85	77	749	718	25.9%	9.2%	10.5%	45.6%	75 - 95
NL Central	MIL	83	79	714	693	19.1%	9.5%	7.7%	36.3%	73 - 93
NL Central	PIT	72	90	687	772	0.4%	0.5%	0.6%	1.4%	62 - 82
NL Central	CHN	71	91	675	773	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.9%	61 - 81
NL Central	HOU	66	96	638	771	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%	56 - 76
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL West	COL	86	76	746	696	40.9%	6.6%	11.1%	58.6%	76 - 96
NL West	ARI	84	78	704	682	26.1%	6.4%	9.3%	41.8%	74 - 94
NL West	SF	84	78	688	670	27.5%	6.5%	8.9%	42.9%	74 - 94
NL West	LAN	76	86	669	714	3.8%	1.4%	2.0%	7.2%	66 - 86
NL West	SD	74	88	679	737	1.7%	0.7%	1.4%	3.8%	64 - 84

NL	WC1	90
NL	WC2	87

--Posted at 8:15 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

CAIRO 2012 v0.5 and More Somewhat Useless Projected Standings

I’ve uploaded the latest version of the 2012 MLB CAIRO projections. They can be downloaded here.

The only changes from version 0.4 were moving players who were signed/traded to their new teams. I think this will probably be the last release until right before Opening Day unless I find any issues.

I figured since I’ve updated again I’d run another set of projected standings so here is what they look like.

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
AL East	NYA	97	65	844	692	54.3%	22.5%	8.0%	84.8%
AL East	TAM	92	70	772	660	23.2%	27.4%	14.1%	64.8%
AL East	BOS	92	70	862	745	22.1%	27.0%	15.3%	64.4%
AL East	TOR	78	84	758	795	0.4%	1.2%	2.6%	4.1%
AL East	BAL	70	92	734	847	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
AL Central	DET	88	74	814	741	60.7%	1.6%	12.7%	75.0%
AL Central	CLE	84	78	763	729	32.1%	0.8%	9.5%	42.4%
AL Central	CHA	74	88	705	805	3.5%	0.2%	1.0%	4.7%
AL Central	KC	74	88	687	762	3.3%	0.0%	0.8%	4.1%
AL Central	MIN	67	95	720	861	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
AL West	TEX	92	70	812	695	51.2%	8.6%	17.0%	76.8%
AL West	LAA	91	71	741	653	47.0%	9.9%	16.6%	73.5%
AL West	OAK	76	86	685	735	0.7%	0.6%	1.7%	2.9%
AL West	SEA	74	88	673	729	1.2%	0.2%	1.0%	2.4%

AL	WC1	94
AL	WC2	91

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
NL East	PHI	92	70	701	605	60.8%	12.4%	9.1%	82.2%
NL East	WAS	86	76	676	625	18.6%	18.2%	9.1%	45.8%
NL East	ATL	85	77	700	676	13.2%	12.5%	11.0%	36.7%
NL East	FLA	82	80	708	699	7.3%	8.0%	7.1%	22.3%
NL East	NYN	75	87	670	733	0.3%	1.2%	1.8%	3.2%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
NL Central	STL	90	72	737	654	47.8%	12.4%	10.3%	70.5%
NL Central	CIN	87	75	715	665	27.3%	11.6%	12.1%	51.0%
NL Central	MIL	86	76	696	645	24.6%	12.3%	11.7%	48.6%
NL Central	CHN	71	91	650	745	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.5%
NL Central	PIT	68	94	649	764	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%
NL Central	HOU	60	102	584	773	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
NL West	SF	85	77	663	630	38.1%	3.1%	8.4%	49.5%
NL West	ARI	84	78	659	634	33.5%	3.6%	8.9%	46.1%
NL West	COL	81	81	761	759	18.3%	3.0%	6.6%	27.9%
NL West	SD	76	86	633	668	5.2%	0.8%	2.2%	8.2%
NL West	LAN	75	87	621	669	4.9%	0.7%	1.8%	7.3%

NL	WC1	90
NL	WC2	88

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card

These look more realistic to me than the last set I ran with Marcel. Probably a bit high on the Yankees, but since CAIRO was created to make the Yankees look better than they are that stands to reason.

I am a bit surprised that Washington now projects better than Atlanta, even if it’s just a one game edge. The only other major differences from this and the Marcel version is St. Louis at the top of the NL Central and San Francisco and Arizona above Colorado, both of which make sense to me.

Anyway, it’s still early, this is still not that useful, etc.,

--Posted at 9:58 am by SG / 43 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, January 28, 2012

Still Too Early 2012 MLB Standings Projection

Instead of running these with CAIRO this time I used Marcel, mainly out of curiosity in seeing what an unbiased projection that was not created to make the Yankees look better than they are would say.

It says this.

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
AL East	NYA	92	70	785	682	45.3%	20.3%	10.4%	76.0%
AL East	BOS	90	72	830	750	27.9%	26.1%	10.8%	64.8%
AL East	TAM	88	74	717	646	23.7%	21.2%	12.2%	57.1%
AL East	TOR	81	81	723	727	3.0%	6.9%	6.8%	16.7%
AL East	BAL	70	92	694	806	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
AL Central	DET	84	78	747	708	43.0%	2.4%	10.1%	55.4%
AL Central	CLE	83	79	722	708	30.6%	2.9%	7.8%	41.3%
AL Central	CHA	79	83	686	703	15.2%	1.5%	4.2%	20.9%
AL Central	KC	79	83	691	714	10.8%	1.9%	4.1%	16.9%
AL Central	MIN	68	94	693	813	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
AL West	LAA	87	75	719	663	43.7%	6.1%	11.4%	61.2%
AL West	TEX	87	75	765	707	38.2%	6.9%	13.4%	58.6%
AL West	OAK	82	80	682	674	14.9%	3.1%	7.4%	25.3%
AL West	SEA	76	86	649	689	3.2%	0.7%	1.6%	5.5%

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
NL East	PHI	90	72	689	615	44.8%	16.5%	10.7%	72.0%
NL East	ATL	89	73	668	608	38.2%	19.2%	9.9%	67.3%
NL East	WAS	83	79	645	634	10.8%	10.3%	8.1%	29.2%
NL East	FLA	80	82	682	690	5.7%	5.2%	5.4%	16.3%
NL East	NYN	74	88	630	680	0.6%	1.5%	1.2%	3.2%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
NL Central	CIN	89	73	719	647	60.4%	8.4%	10.9%	79.7%
NL Central	STL	84	78	708	681	24.6%	10.7%	7.0%	42.2%
NL Central	MIL	81	81	678	672	13.1%	6.7%	7.7%	27.5%
NL Central	PIT	72	90	657	732	1.6%	0.2%	1.0%	2.8%
NL Central	CHN	70	92	668	761	0.4%	0.2%	0.4%	1.0%
NL Central	HOU	66	96	617	749	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
NL West	COL	85	77	749	711	32.1%	6.4%	10.9%	49.4%
NL West	ARI	85	77	685	656	30.8%	7.3%	10.8%	48.9%
NL West	SF	85	77	629	606	29.6%	5.4%	11.3%	46.3%
NL West	LAN	76	86	618	659	4.1%	1.5%	2.7%	8.2%
NL West	SD	75	87	608	653	3.4%	0.6%	2.5%	6.4%

Div: Percent of time team won division
WC 1: Percent of time team won first wild card
WC 2: Percent of time team won second wild card

We still don’t know if there will be a second wild card yet, so you can chop off that column and subtract that percentage from the team’s over playoff percentage.

Because Marcel regresses more heavily than other projections and because it assumes every one who hasn’t played in MLB projects as league average, you see a tighter spread here than you’ll see in other projected standings. The standard deviation for team wins in my last CAIRO projections was about 9. In this version it’s 7.1. That may be more realistic if you think about how little we really know about how good/bad players and teams are, even though what will actually happen in 2012 will show a much bigger spread more in line with other projected standings.

Here are the average win totals for the placings in each division and for the two wild cards.

Div	Place	Avg W
AL East	1	96
AL East	2	91
AL East	3	86
AL East	4	80
AL East	5	69
Div		Avg W
AL Central	1	89
AL Central	2	83
AL Central	3	79
AL Central	4	75
AL Central	5	67
Div		Avg W
AL West	1	92
AL West	2	86
AL West	3	81
AL West	4	74
AL WC 1		91
AL WC2		88
Div		Avg W
NL East	1	94
NL East	2	88
NL East	3	83
NL East	4	78
NL East	5	72
Div		Avg W
NL Central	1	92
NL Central	2	85
NL Central	3	80
NL Central	4	74
NL Central	5	69
NL Central	6	63
Div		Avg W
NL West	1	91
NL West	2	85
NL West	3	81
NL West	4	77
NL West	5	71
NL WC1		89
NL WC2		87

What this shows is that on average a team needed 96 wins to win the AL East, etc.,.

Some obvious things to consider would be:

- the difference between Yu Darvish (and other imports) and a league average pitcher
- prospects who project better than league average
- players who switched to parks that will affect their projections since Marcel does not park-adjust

Despite all that, the ordinal rankings seem reasonable. The only differences between this and CAIRO in that regard are that I have St. Louis ahead of Cincinnati and the Diamondbacks and Giants ahead of Colorado.

This is current through Francisco Cordero signing with Toronto, and assumes Prince Fielder at 1B and Miguel Cabrera playing a terrible version of 3B for Detroit in 70% of their games, and DHing in 25% of them.

--Posted at 8:19 am by SG / 25 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Still Way Too Early and Mostly Useless 2012 Projected Standings

I was goofing around with the second wild card thing in my simulator and ran an updated set of still way too early and mostly useless projected standings. I think I liked the last set better.

The same disclaimers from the last set apply here and you can read them by clicking the link in the previous paragraph, so I’m not going to repeat them. In summary, ignore these if you don’t like them.

Div	Team	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
AL East
1	BOS	93.7	68.3	872	733	43.8%	20.85%	12.82%	77.44%
2	NYA	93.0	69.0	859	742	38.9%	19.58%	13.74%	72.24%
3	TAM	88.9	73.1	733	651	17.0%	15.37%	13.38%	45.71%
4	TOR	77.9	84.1	770	798	0.4%	1.13%	3.31%	4.79%
5	BAL	64.8	97.2	717	885	0.0%	0.00%	0.06%	0.06%
AL Central
1	DET	88.9	73.1	785	702	63.2%	1.78%	14.80%	79.74%
2	CLE	85.0	77.0	749	706	30.6%	3.40%	9.19%	43.14%
3	CHA	75.7	86.3	707	789	4.2%	0.15%	1.82%	6.12%
4	KC	73.5	88.5	682	755	1.8%	0.05%	0.64%	2.44%
5	MIN	67.4	94.6	715	850	0.4%	0.00%	0.06%	0.46%
AL West
1	TEX	94.1	67.9	817	680	52.9%	16.77%	14.32%	83.94%
2	LAA	93.3	68.7	746	637	46.2%	18.67%	12.96%	77.83%
3	SEA	76.5	85.5	658	697	0.9%	1.30%	2.57%	4.72%
4	OAK	74.0	88.0	650	713	0.1%	0.95%	0.93%	1.98%

	WC1	93.4
	WC2	90.4
Div	Team	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
NL East
1	PHI	92.7	69.3	702	603	64.4%	11.32%	8.43%	84.11%
2	ATL	86.8	75.2	715	671	20.7%	19.83%	10.72%	51.24%
3	WAS	82.4	79.6	674	655	7.3%	9.83%	7.96%	25.07%
4	FLA	81.6	80.4	715	703	6.5%	7.28%	7.39%	21.16%
5	NYN	76.2	85.8	669	717	1.3%	1.54%	2.25%	5.07%
NL Central	Team
1	STL	90.3	71.7	743	650	53.1%	11.63%	9.61%	74.36%
2	CIN	86.4	75.6	714	665	25.1%	12.02%	12.56%	49.71%
3	MIL	85.8	76.2	696	660	21.3%	12.96%	8.46%	42.75%
4	CHN	70.5	91.5	652	755	0.4%	0.50%	0.16%	1.01%
5	PIT	69.2	92.9	655	760	0.1%	0.08%	0.11%	0.24%
6	HOU	57.9	104.1	572	779	0.0%	0.00%	0.01%	0.01%
NL West	Team
1	SF	85.5	76.5	667	627	40.1%	4.83%	11.28%	56.16%
2	ARI	85.4	76.6	668	635	39.6%	4.48%	11.24%	55.36%
3	COL	79.3	82.7	767	784	10.4%	1.62%	4.36%	16.34%
4	SD	76.8	85.2	641	667	5.3%	0.94%	3.87%	10.10%
5	LAN	76.5	85.5	626	666	4.7%	1.13%	2.21%	8.01%

	WC1	90.3
	WC2	87.7

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card

Nothing would make me happier than Houston winning the second wild card and going all the way. Maybe then the second wild card thing will die before completely ruining baseball.

--Posted at 10:05 am by SG / 35 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Is it Better for the Yankees that Yu Darvish went to Texas instead of Toronto?

This seemed like a no-brainer to me, but since some people dissented, here’s what CAIRO says about the AL postseason odds depending on whether Yu Darvish wound up in Toronto or on Texas.

Yu-Toronto
Team	Div	WC	PL
Rangers	51.2%	16.2%	67.4%
Yankees	49.3%	18.1%	67.3%
Tigers	58.3%	4.9%	63.1%
Angels	47.3%	14.9%	62.2%
Red Sox	33.1%	19.3%	52.4%
Indians	37.1%	5.8%	43.0%
Rays	14.7%	14.7%	29.3%
Blue Jays	3.0%	3.3%	6.3%
Royals	2.7%	0.5%	3.2%
Mariners	1.1%	1.6%	2.6%
White Sox	1.7%	0.3%	1.9%
Athletics	0.5%	0.6%	1.1%
Twins	0.2%	-	0.2%
Orioles	0.0%	-	-

Yu-Texas
Team	Div	WC	PL
Rangers	56.3%	16.7%	72.9%
Yankees	51.7%	17.4%	69.1%
Tigers	58.4%	4.3%	62.8%
Angels	42.8%	18.5%	61.3%
Red Sox	30.3%	17.9%	48.2%
Indians	38.5%	5.5%	44.0%
Rays	17.3%	16.4%	33.8%
Royals	1.6%	0.4%	2.0%
White Sox	1.5%	0.2%	1.8%
Blue Jays	0.6%	1.1%	1.7%
Mariners	0.7%	0.8%	1.5%
Athletics	0.3%	0.8%	1.1%
Orioles	0.0%	-	-
Twins	0.0%	-	-

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC: Percentage of times team won wild card (still using the one wild card playoff format)
PL: Percentage of times team qualified for the postseason (Div + WC)

Update: Corrected percentages

As yfinBrazil noted, the original numbers in this post were incorrect. The table has been updated.

Now we’re looking at a Yankee playoff percentage of 67.4% if Darvish was on Toronto, at which point they’d have to get past a .566 Texas team, which would have an overall probability of 34.1%. With Darvish on Texas, you’re looking at 69.1% playoff percentage and then having to beat a .577 Texas team, which has an overall probability of 34.6%.

Which is all just a fancy way of saying it doesn’t matter all that much.

--Posted at 9:09 am by SG / 44 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

In Case You Needed More Reasons To Be Pessimistic About Tonight

I know that batter/pitcher matchups are generally not very informative. The reason for that is what a player has done in 10-20 PA vs. a specific pitcher/hitter doesn’t tell us more than what he’s done against the hundreds or thousands of other players he’s faced. But for the heck of it, I ran the two expected starting lineups for tonight’s lines against the opposing starter to see what they looked like.

Player	Career PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	Outs	BR
Austin Jackson	3	.500/.667/2.000	5	2	2.7
Magglio Ordonez	17	.214/.353/.500	5	3	0.8
Delmon Young	18	.200/.333/.267	5	4	0.4
Miguel Cabrera	14	.214/.214/.357	5	4	0.4
Victor Martinez	34	.259/.412/.444	5	3	0.7
Alex Avila	2	.500/.500/.500	5	2	0.9
Jhonny Peralta	15	.231/.267/.538	4	3	0.5
Wilson Betemit	24	.261/.292/.391	4	3	0.4
Ramon Santiago	4	.250/.250/.250	4	3	0.2
Total	131	.246/.336/.439	42	27	7.0
Derek Jeter	9	.000/.000/.000	5	5	-0.5
Curtis Granderson	5	.400/.400/.400	5	3	0.6
Robinson Cano	11	.455/.455/.545	4	2	0.8
Alex Rodriguez	4	.250/.250/.250	4	3	0.2
Mark Teixeira	11	.100/.182/.100	4	4	-0.1
Nick Swisher	12	.300/.417/.600	4	2	0.8
Jorge Posada	11	.333/.455/.444	4	2	0.7
Russell Martin	6	.250/.500/.250	4	3	0.5
Brett Gardner	10	.111/.200/.111	4	3	0.0
Total	79	.239/.316/.310	38	27	2.9

The first two columns are the career PA and AVG/OBP/SLG vs. A.J. Burnett for Detroit, and vs. Rick Porcello for the Yankees. PA, Outs and BR(batting runs) are what would happen if every player did exactly what he’s done so far against those pitchers over the course of 27 outs.

Yeah, Detroit would score 7 runs and the Yankees would score 2.9. That translates to roughly a .846 wpct team playing a .154 wpct team. Since it’s not likely either goes nine the gap shrinks some.

Again, this doesn’t tell us anything useful.

Really.

I swear.

--Posted at 4:24 pm by SG / 28 Comments | - (0)

Friday, September 30, 2011

2011 ALDS Preview: Tigers vs. Yankees

The first obstacle in the quest to end the dreaded curse of The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske is the Detroit Tigers.

Seriously, it has been 694 days, 11 hours, 15 minutes, and 45 seconds since the New York Yankees have won a World Series. We have suffered long enough, haven’t we? When will this infernal madness end?

So how big of an obstacle are the Tigers? Let’s take a look.

First, I’ll acknowledge the obvious fact that the Tigers played in and won the AL Central which is probably the weakest division in the AL.

I’ll then say that it doesn’t matter. This is a very good team, and it’s not a stretch to envision them representing the AL in the World Series.

If you read the Rays/Rangers preview you can skip the next paragraph.

I don’t particularly find any series previews that focus on what a team did in the preceding full season of much use. It doesn’t really matter if a team scored 5.2 runs per game and allowed 4.2 runs per game over the preceding six months. Rosters change, injuries happen, players come and go, talent changes, and player and team performance is often subject to fluctuations that are not predictive. What I want to know is how many runs will the team and roster as currently configured score and allow. Because of that, for these previews I’ll be using projections in lieu of 2011 stats. Despite having my own system in CAIRO, I’m going to use the Hardball Times’s Oliver forecasts since I haven’t had the time to re-run CAIRO for this year. Oliver is updated weekly during the season and includes 2011 MLEs for players who saw time in the minors.

The biggest consideration in trying to see how any series may shape up is allocating playing time. So here are depth charts for the two teams, based on the assumption that each team will make 25 outs at the plate over 5 games and that pitchers will combine for 45 innings. Since I didn’t have official postseason rosters while writing parts of these, some of it is guesswork and is subject to change.

Here are the Oliver projections for the Tigers’ postseason position players.

Name	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Jackson, Austin	CF	21	.263/.315/.374	14	2.24	.303	.311	.300
Kelly, Don	3B	21	.268/.312/.413	14	2.34	.314	.286	.317
Young, Delmon	LF	21	.283/.314/.446	14	2.52	.327	.344	.320
Cabrera, Miguel	1B	21	.334/.422/.602	12	4.11	.435	.455	.429
Martinez, Victor	C	21	.312/.365/.480	13	3.08	.367	.372	.364
Peralta, Jhonny	SS	21	.270/.324/.426	14	2.50	.326	.339	.321
Avila, Alex	C	21	.270/.351/.456	14	2.89	.350	.327	.356
Dirks, Andy	RF	21	.265/.311/.415	14	2.45	.315	.294	.318
Santiago, Ramon	2B	21	.276/.319/.394	14	2.30	.307	.304	.308
Starter Total		189	.282/.337/.444	125	24.42	.338	.338	.338
Bench	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Betemit, Wilson	IF	0	.259/.323/.424	0	0.00	.325	.298	.334
Ordonez, Magglio	OF	0	.282/.344/.412	0	0.00	.334	.352	.329
Raburn, Ryan	OF	0	.268/.317/.465	0	0.00	.334	.349	.323
Rhymes, Will	2B	0	.272/.326/.361	0	0.00	.303	.283	.307
Inge, Brandon	3B	0	.230/.304/.384	0	0.00	.303	.328	.294
Worth, Danny	IF	0	.229/.284/.328	0	0.00	.272	.283	.263
Kelly, Don	UT	0	.268/.312/.413	0	0.00	.314	.286	.317
Santos, Omir	C	0	.228/.255/.333	0	0.00	.255	.264	.250
Bench Total
Team Total		189	.282/.337/.444	125	24.42	.338	.338	.338

Outs: Outs at the plate (assumes 25 outs per 9 innings, calculated as (1 - OBP) times PA + GDP per PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
vs. L/R: Projected wOBA splits vs. LHP/RHP using regressed platoon splits

Rather than guess about how the Tigers may allocate playing time, I just gave the expected starting lineup all 125 outs.

The biggest problem here is Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera’s pretty much the best hitter in the AL. In fact, only one player has been a better hitter than him over the last three years, and that’s Albert Pujols. That projected wOBA of .455 vs. LHP is terrifying for Game 1. The Yankees probably don’t have much room for error facing Verlander, so the Cabrera/Sabathia matchup is probably going to be the one to watch. You can see by the OBP of the rest of the team that keeping people like Austin Jackson, Don Kelly and Delmon Young off the bases in front of Cabrera is going to be imperative.

The Tigers overall don’t have much of a projected platoon split, so the Yankees’ lack of left-handed pitching shouldn’t be a big deal.

I don’t think any Tigers fans would disagree that the Yankees’ lineup is better. Their hopes are going to lay on their pitching staff, and that’s not a bad position to be in.

Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Verlander, Justin	SP1	14	4.8	3.11	2.89	3.05
Fister, Doug	SP2	6	2.6	3.94	3.67	3.49
Scherzer, Max	SP3	6	3.1	4.61	4.10	3.98
Porcello, Rick	SP4	5	2.7	4.88	4.51	4.35
Penny, Brad	SP5	0	0.0	5.43	4.85	4.65



Starter Total		31	13.3	3.85	3.54	3.52
Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Valverde, Jose	CL	3	1.3	3.90	3.61	3.72
Benoit, Joaquin	SU	3	1.1	3.25	3.01	3.10
Alburquerque, Al	SU	2	0.9	4.20	3.89	3.71
Coke, Phil	SU	2	1.0	4.40	4.07	3.68
Pauley, David	MR	2	1.1	4.76	4.41	4.44
Perry, Ryan	MR	1	0.5	4.61	4.27	4.12
Schlereth, Daniel	MR	1	0.5	4.85	4.49	4.31
Marte, Luis	LR	0	0.0	5.26	4.87	4.97
Below, Duane	LR	0	0.0	5.49	5.08	5.33
	LR	0	0.0
Reliever Total		14	6.4	4.12	3.81	3.75
Team Total		45	19.7	3.93	3.62	3.59

RA: Runs allowed per 9, calculated as 1.08*ERA
ERA: Earned runs allowed per 9
FIP: Fielding independent pitching

Justin Verlander’s obviously the man here. He’s been the best pitcher in baseball this year and is a worthy MVP candidate. He’s backed up by mid-season acquisition Doug Fister, who’s been sublime for the Tigers. The Tigers are 9-2 in his 11 starts, and he’s pitched 70.1 innings and allowed just 19 runs. He’s faced 273 batters and walked 5 of them. Seriously. He’s probably not quite that good, but he’d project as the second-best starter on the Yankees.

Jim Leyland has said that he will not pitch Verlander on three days rest, so I’m giving Rick Porcello five innings. I don’t know if things would change if the Tigers go down 2-1. If they did that, they could throw Fister in Game 5 and not use Porcello in the rotation at all.

The Tigers’ defense has been about average overall, not much different than the Yankees. So I’m not going to bother with talking about that.

So, how about the Yankees’ projections?

Name	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Jeter, Derek	SS	22	.306/.363/.416	14	2.83	.345	.369	.337
Granderson, Curtis	CF	22	.259/.342/.496	14	3.24	.358	.314	.374
Cano, Robinson	2B	22	.312/.359/.511	14	3.38	.374	.358	.381
Rodriguez, Alex	3B	18	.289/.367/.527	11	2.89	.382	.389	.380
Teixeira, Mark	1B	22	.265/.357/.498	14	3.29	.369	.380	.364
Swisher, Nick	RF	21	.271/.364/.475	13	3.03	.364	.375	.359
Posada, Jorge	DH	16	.259/.345/.448	10	2.12	.347	.347	.347
Martin, Russell	C	21	.252/.345/.380	14	2.39	.326	.344	.320
Gardner, Brett	LF	19	.269/.353/.376	12	2.34	.326	.306	.332
Starter Total		183	.277/.355/.460	118	25.50	.355	.354	.355
Bench	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Montero, Jesus	DH	4	.278/.329/.483	3	0.54	.348	.361	.340
Jones, Andruw	OF	2	.251/.344/.502	1	0.30	.363	.381	.357
Nunez, Eduardo	IF	0	.278/.308/.381	0	0.00	.301	.302	.300
Chavez, Eric	3B	4	.245/.296/.355	3	0.38	.288	.257	.300
Romine, Austin	C	0	.246/.289/.364	0	0.00	.287	.300	.283
Dickerson, Chris	OF	0	.239/.315/.341	0	0.00	.295	.272	.299
Pena, Ramiro	IF	0	.239/.283/.327	0	0.00	.269	.256	.273
Cervelli, Francisco	C	0	.263/.314/.365	0	0.00	.298	.310	.293
Bench Total		10	.260/.319/.435	7	1.22	.327	.323	.327
Team Total		193	.276/.353/.458	125	26.72	.353	.352	.354

I’ve relegated Jesus Montero to pinch-hitting status, since DH vs. LHP is effectively a non-position vs. Detroit. I suppose we may see him pinch-hit for Posada if a one of Phil Coke/Daniel Schlereth is on the mound. Or he could get a start if Posada doesn’t look so good. Statistically, Posada’s projection vs. RHP is better than Montero’s so I suppose it’s the logical approach. I’m also not sanguine on A-Rod playing every inning so I’ve given Chavez four PA, and I’m assuming we may see Andruw Jones pinch-hit for TSBG in a late situation vs. a LHP where an XBH would be of additional benefit.

Oliver thinks the Yankees have the best offense in the postseason, and I’d agree with that. Unfortunately, the Yankees have to pitch too.

Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Sabathia, CC	SP1	14	5.8	3.70	3.43	3.28
Nova, Ivan	SP2	12	6.4	4.77	4.36	4.33
Garcia, Freddy	SP3	5	2.6	4.60	4.36	4.33
Colon, Bartolo	SP4	0	0.0	4.82	4.04	3.97
Burnett, A.J.	SP5	0	0.0	5.21	4.82	4.49
Hughes, Phil	SP6	0	0.0	4.45	4.12	4.17
Betances, Dellin	SP7	0	0.0	5.36	4.96	4.83
Brackman, Andrew	SP8	0	0.0	6.80	6.30	5.88
Starter Total		31	14.7	4.26	3.94	3.86
Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Rivera, Mariano	CL	3	1.0	3.03	2.81	2.89
Robertson, David	SU	3	1.2	3.75	3.47	3.05
Soriano, Rafael	SU	2	0.8	3.61	3.34	3.64
Logan, Boone	SU	2	1.0	4.32	4.00	3.77
Wade, Cory	MR	2	1.0	4.38	4.06	4.09
Ayala, Luis	MR	2	1.0	4.50	4.17	3.92
Noesi, Hector	MR	0	0.0	4.59	4.25	4.03
Proctor, Scott	LR	0	0.0	5.78	5.35	5.21
Laffey, Aaron	LR	0	0.0	5.56	5.15	4.59
Kontos, George	LR	0	0.0	5.38	4.98	5.02
Reliever Total		14	6.0	3.86	3.57	3.48
Team Total		45	20.7	4.14	3.82	3.74

The assumption here is CC on three days rest. I’m assuming that Burnett and Hughes won’t pitch even though they’re on the roster, but if they do pitch their innings would probably just replace Ayala or Wade’s and it shouldn’t make a big difference.

The Yankees probably have the worst projected rotation in the postseason. CC’s as good as anyone, but after that there’s some concern about Nova and Garcia. I do think that projection is a little bearish on Nova since we have evidence that his new slider has made a meaningful improvement that wouldn’t be captured in a projection system.

Nova pre-slider: 226 BF, 9.3% BB/BF, 11.5% K/BF, 5.19 RA, 4.29 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 4.92 xFIP
Nova post-slider: 278 BF, 7.5% BB/BF, 15.1% K/BF, 3.52 RA, 3.44 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 4.03 xFIP

The Yankee bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this year, and although the projections think most of them pitched above their head they’re probably still better than Detroit’s from top to bottom. So the Yankees should be able to mitigate their slight disadvantage in the rotation by using the relievers aggressively. I can imagine that any David Robertson/Miguel Cabrera battles are going to be must-see baseball.

These depth charts say this.

Team	Gms	RS	RA	wpct	p162
DET	5	24.4	19.7	.600	97
NYA	5	26.7	20.7	.620	100

If I play the series out 10,000 times in my Monte Carlo simulator I get these odds.

Yankees: 53.9%
Tigers: 46.1%

If the Tigers do decide to use Verlander in Game 4 and Fister in Game 5 they improve to about a .612 wpct/99 win team. Basically, those two teams are equivalent. The Yankees get the slight edge of one extra home game if necessary. In that case the odds look like this.

Yankees: 51.9%
Tigers: 48.1%

--Posted at 10:58 am by SG / 60 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, September 29, 2011

2011 ALDS Preview: Rays vs. Rangers

Who will be facing the Tigers in the ALCS this year? Let’s see what the numbers say.

Because of that, for these previews I’ll be using projections in lieu of 2011 stats. Despite having my own system in CAIRO, I’m going to use the Hardball Times’s Oliver forecasts since I haven’t had the time to re-run CAIRO for this year. Oliver is updated weekly during the season and includes 2011 MLEs for players who saw time in the minors.

The biggest consideration in trying to see how any series may shape up is allocating playing time. So here are depth charts for the two teams, based on the assumption that each team will make 25 outs at the plate over 5 games. Since we don’t have finalized postseason rosters, these are guess-timates and are subject to change.

Name	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA
Jennings, Desmond	LF	21	.266/.334/.415	14	2.66	.328
Upton, B.J.	CF	21	.235/.328/.402	14	2.57	.323
Longoria, Evan	3B	21	.268/.365/.510	13	3.30	.376
Zobrist, Ben	2B	21	.261/.358/.437	13	2.87	.349
Damon, Johnny	DH	21	.272/.343/.430	14	2.76	.339
Joyce, Matt	RF	21	.263/.349/.463	14	2.94	.352
Kotchman, Casey	1B	20	.271/.335/.395	13	2.29	.324
Jaso, John	C	15	.247/.329/.357	10	1.53	.309
Rodriguez, Sean	SS	18	.237/.315/.402	12	2.04	.314
Starter Total		179	.259/.340/.426	118	22.96	.336
Bench	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA
Ruggiano, Justin	OF	0	.250/.301/.395	0	0.00	.304
Shoppach, Kelly	C	3	.208/.303/.379	2	0.30	.302
Johnson, Elliot	IF	0	.247/.286/.384	0	0.00	.286
Fuld, Sam	OF	2	.250/.322/.357	1	0.21	.304
Guyer, Brandon	OF	0	.281/.325/.444	0	0.00	.330
Canzler, Russ	IF	0	.263/.328/.450	0	0.00	.337
Lobaton, Jose	C	0	.241/.316/.365	0	0.00	.303
Brignac, Reid	SS	5	.235/.276/.336	4	0.39	.269
Bench Total		10	.230/.293/.352	7	0.91	.286
Team Total		189	.257/.338/.422	125	23.86	.334

Name	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA
Kinsler, Ian	2B	20	.262/.342/.458	13	2.78	.346
Andrus, Elvis	SS	20	.271/.322/.344	14	1.99	.296
Hamilton, Josh	LF	20	.313/.358/.544	13	3.30	.383
Cruz, Nelson	RF	20	.282/.334/.543	13	3.15	.370
Young, Michael	DH	20	.312/.356/.471	13	2.82	.358
Beltre, Adrian	3B	20	.295/.333/.513	13	2.93	.360
Napoli, Mike	C	20	.286/.362/.559	13	3.34	.390
Moreland, Mitch	1B	20	.274/.334/.444	13	2.55	.337
Chavez, Endy	CF	17	.282/.312/.392	12	1.80	.304
Starter Total		177	.287/.340/.477	117	24.65	.350
Bench	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA
Murphy, David	OF	4	.279/.334/.428	3	0.50	.333
Martin, Leonys	OF	2	.265/.313/.374	1	0.21	.302
Gentry, Craig	OF	2	.265/.322/.360	1	0.21	.303
German, Esteban	IF	1	.271/.343/.366	1	0.12	.318
Torrealba, Yorvit	C	3	.271/.320/.385	2	0.32	.310
Blanco, Andres	C	0	.263/.295/.362	0	0.00	.285
Treanor, Matt	C	0	.223/.307/.321	0	0.00	.284

Bench Total		12	.272/.326/.392	8	1.36	.316
Team Total		189	.286/.339/.471	125	26.01	.348

These tables just show the primary lineup and potential bench players, with a PA estimate. That PA estimate is used to calculate how outs the players will make and how many runs they will provide (BR). PA are added to get the team to 125 outs for a five game series, and then we have an estimate for how many runs the team would project to score.

We can do the same thing with the pitching staffs, allocating 45 innings to see how many runs they’d project to give up.

Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Niemann, Jeff	SP1	6	2.7	4.11	3.95	4.11
Shields, James	SP2	7	3.1	4.03	3.70	3.68
Price, David	SP3	7	3.0	3.84	3.41	3.50
Hellickson, Jeremy	SP4	6	2.6	3.85	3.55	3.97
Davis, Wade	SP5	2	1.0	4.61	4.34	4.51
Moore, Matt	SP6	2	1.0	4.57	4.23	4.10
	SP7	0	0.0
	SP8	0	0.0
Starter Total		30	13.5	4.04	3.73	3.87
Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Farnsworth, Kyle	CL	3	1.2	3.53	3.27	3.23
Peralta, Joel	SU	3	1.1	3.35	3.10	3.50
Cruz, Juan	SU	2	1.1	4.75	4.40	4.40
McGee, Jake	SU	2	1.0	4.56	4.22	4.03
Gomes, Brandon	MR	2	0.9	4.21	3.90	3.71
Ramos, Cesar	MR	2	1.2	5.18	4.80	4.43
Howell, J.P.	MR	1	0.5	4.64	4.30	4.08
De La Rosa, Dane	LR	0	0.0	5.03	4.66	4.40
Sonnanstine, Andy	LR	0	0.0	5.43	5.03	4.88
			0.0
Reliever Total		15	7.0	4.18	3.87	3.83
Team Total		45	20.4	4.09	3.78	3.85

Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Wilson, C.J.	SP1	14	5.7	3.67	3.33	3.27
Holland, Derek	SP2	11	5.5	4.51	4.24	4.26
Harrison, Matt	SP3	6	2.8	4.25	3.97	4.04
Lewis, Colby	SP4	1	0.4	3.82	3.51	3.74
Ogando, Alexi	SP5	2	0.8	3.77	3.35	3.44
Feldman, Scott	SP6	0	0.0	4.82	4.40	4.47
Hamburger, Mark	SP7	0	0.0	5.17	4.79	4.97
	SP8	0	0.0
Starter Total		34	15.3	4.06	3.74	3.75
Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Feliz, Neftali	CL	3	1.2	3.51	3.25	3.27
Adams, Mike	SU	2	0.7	3.06	2.83	2.95
Uehara, Koji	SU	2	0.7	3.07	2.84	2.98
Gonzalez, Michael	SU	1	0.5	4.36	4.04	4.00
Oliver, Darren	MR	2	0.8	3.42	3.17	3.12
Lowe, Mark	MR	1	0.5	4.45	4.12	4.01
Tateyama, Yoshinori	MR	0	0.0	3.80	3.52	3.35
Valdez, Merkin	LR	0	0.0	5.43	5.03	4.36
Kirkman, Michael	LR	0	0.0	5.36	4.96	4.53
			0.0
Reliever Total		11	4.3	3.49	3.24	3.27
Team Total		45	19.6	3.92	3.62	3.63

RA: Runs allowed per 9, calculated as 1.08*ERA
ERA: Earned runs allowed per 9
FIP: Fielding independent pitching

We don’t have etched in stone rotations for this series. All I know for certain is that C.J. Wilson will start Game 1 for Texas, and that it’s likely Jeff Niemann gets the ball in Game 1 for the Rays. The Rangers may use Alexi Ogando as a starter but I’ve got him as a reliever for now.

Given these assumptions for playing time, we can then use the runs scored and runs allowed projections to get a Pythagenpat winning percentage which gives us an idea of how strong a team is in the context of this series.

Team	Gms	RS	RA	wpct	p162
TB	5	23.9	20.4	.572	93
TEX	5	26.0	19.6	.631	102

RS: Projected runs scored
RA: Projected runs allowed
wpct: Pythagenpat winning percentage
p162: # of wins per 162 games using wpct

Oliver LOOOVES Texas. I don’t know if they’re better than Philly in Oliver, but they’re better than everyone in the AL. So, running this matchup through a Monte Carlo simulator gives me these odds.

Texas: 59.1%
Rays: 40.9%

I’ll look at Yankees/Tigers tomorrow.

--Posted at 7:15 pm by SG / 27 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Sportsday DFW: With home-field advantage on line, Rangers plan on bringing “A” game for season final

With one game left, the Rangers could still end up playing any of three teams:

• If the Rangers win, they will return home to play the wild card winner, which may not be determined until Thursday. Boston and Tampa Bay enter the final game tied. If both teams have the same result on Wednesday, they will play a tiebreaker game Thursday in Tampa.

• If the Rangers lose and Detroit loses, Texas will still hold home field advantage. The Tigers start their game with Cleveland at 6 p.m. CT, an hour before the first pitch of the Rangers-Angels game.

•If the Rangers lose and Detroit wins, the Rangers will head to New York to face the New York Yankees on Friday.

I think Texas is a better team than Detroit, even though the Yankees handled them pretty well this year. Detroit is probably a more difficult team in a five game series than they’d be in a seven game series, but I don’t think that pushes them past Texas..

I suppose I really don’t care who the Yankees face. I can see them beating anyone and losing to anyone. Both Detroit and Texas are good teams that pose a potential obstacle.

The only thing I care about is that whichever of the teams isn’t facing the Yankees is facing Tampa Bay.

--Posted at 9:02 am by SG / 98 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

What are the AL Wild Card Odds as of Today

According to Baseball Prospectus, the Red Sox are still favored to win the wild card over the Rays, 55.1% to 44.9%. This is based on assumed team strengths of .600 for the Yankees, .562 for the Red Sox, .528 for the Rays and .434 for the Orioles.

The first and most obvious problem here is assuming that a Yankee team that’s not playing for anything is going to be the equivalent of a 97 win team, particularly with them already announcing they won’t be pitching any pitchers that are going to be on the postseason roster in tomorrow’s game. Similarly, we have enough information to look at all four teams and see how strong they really may be over the next two games to see if the odds change appreciably.

I’m going to use the format below when I start my postseason previews. I’m using The Hardball Times’s Oliver forecasts, since I haven’t had time to re-run CAIRO for 2011. These projections are the most up-to-date ones (updated weekly) and include 2011 MLEs, so I think they’re solid. These were last updated on Monday.

First, here’s a rough stab at the teams I’d expect the Yankees and Rays to field over the next two days.

Name	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Jeter, Derek	SS	5	.306/.363/.416	3	0.64	.345	.369	.337
Granderson, Curtis	CF	5	.259/.342/.496	3	0.74	.358	.314	.374
Teixeira, Mark	1B	5	.265/.357/.498	3	0.75	.369	.380	.364
Rodriguez, Alex	3B	5	.289/.367/.527	3	0.80	.382	.389	.380
Cano, Robinson	2B	5	.312/.359/.511	3	0.77	.374	.358	.381
Swisher, Nick	RF	5	.271/.364/.475	3	0.72	.364	.375	.359
Montero, Jesus	DH	5	.278/.329/.483	3	0.67	.348	.361	.340
Martin, Russell	C	5	.252/.345/.380	3	0.57	.326	.344	.320
Gardner, Brett	LF	5	.269/.353/.376	3	0.62	.326	.306	.332
Starter Total		45	.278/.353/.463	29	6.28	.355	.355	.354
Bench	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Posada, Jorge	DH	5	.259/.345/.448	3	0.66	.347	.347	.347
Jones, Andruw	OF	4	.251/.344/.502	3	0.60	.363	.381	.357
Nunez, Eduardo	IF	5	.278/.308/.381	3	0.51	.301	.302	.300
Chavez, Eric	3B	4	.245/.296/.355	3	0.38	.288	.257	.300
Romine, Austin	C	4	.246/.289/.364	3	0.38	.287	.300	.283
Dickerson, Chris	OF	4	.239/.315/.341	3	0.40	.295	.272	.299
Pena, Ramiro	IF	4	.239/.283/.327	3	0.32	.269	.256	.273
Cervelli, Francisco	C	0	.263/.314/.365	0	0.00	.298	.310	.293
Bench Total		30	.252/.312/.389	21	3.24	.308	.304	.309
Team Total		75	.268/.337/.433	50	9.52	.336	.335	.336

Name	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Jennings, Desmond	LF	8	.266/.334/.415	5	1.01	.328	.340	.321
Upton, B.J.	CF	8	.235/.328/.402	5	0.98	.323	.339	.316
Longoria, Evan	3B	8	.268/.365/.510	5	1.26	.376	.393	.369
Zobrist, Ben	2B	8	.261/.358/.437	5	1.09	.349	.357	.345
Damon, Johnny	DH	8	.272/.343/.430	5	1.05	.339	.322	.346
Joyce, Matt	RF	8	.263/.349/.463	5	1.12	.352	.319	.357
Kotchman, Casey	1B	8	.271/.335/.395	5	0.91	.324	.300	.331
Jaso, John	C	4	.247/.329/.357	3	0.41	.309	.286	.313
Rodriguez, Sean	SS	4	.237/.315/.402	3	0.45	.314	.332	.304
Starter Total		64	.260/.342/.429	42	8.29	.338	.335	.337
Bench	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Ruggiano, Justin	OF	1	.250/.301/.395	1	0.11	.304	.312	.297
Shoppach, Kelly	C	4	.208/.303/.379	3	0.41	.302	.323	.292
Johnson, Elliot	IF	0	.247/.286/.384	0	0.00	.286	.292	.280
Fuld, Sam	OF	1	.250/.322/.357	1	0.10	.304	.284	.310
Guyer, Brandon	OF	1	.281/.325/.444	1	0.13	.330	.338	.315
Canzler, Russ	IF	0	.263/.328/.450	0	0.00	.337	.371	.303
Lobaton, Jose	C	0	.241/.316/.365	0	0.00	.303	.301	.304
Brignac, Reid	SS	4	.235/.276/.336	3	0.31	.269	.246	.274
Bench Total		11	.233/.297/.368	8	1.06	.293	.292	.289
Team Total		75	.256/.335/.420	50	9.35	.331	.329	.330

Even at less than full strength, the Yankees probably have the better offense on the field.

For the pitching, it’s a bit trickier but I’ll take a shot anyway.

Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Sabathia, CC	SP1	0	0	3.70	3.43	3.28
Colon, Bartolo	SP2	5	3	4.82	4.04	3.97
Nova, Ivan	SP3	0	0	4.77	4.36	4.33
Garcia, Freddy	SP4	0	0	4.60	4.36	4.33
Burnett, A.J.	SP5	0	0	5.21	4.82	4.49
Hughes, Phil	SP6	0	0	4.45	4.12	4.17
Betances, Dellin	SP7	4	2	5.36	4.96	4.83
Brackman, Andrew	SP8	0	0	6.80	6.30	5.88
Starter Total		9	5	5.06	4.45	4.35
Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Rivera, Mariano	CL	1	0	3.03	2.81	2.89
Robertson, David	SU	1	0	3.75	3.47	3.05
Soriano, Rafael	SU	1	0	3.61	3.34	3.64
Logan, Boone	SU	1	0	4.32	4.00	3.77
Wade, Cory	MR	1	0	4.38	4.06	4.09
Ayala, Luis	MR	1	1	4.50	4.17	3.92
Noesi, Hector	MR	0	0	4.59	4.25	4.03
Proctor, Scott	LR	1	1	5.78	5.35	5.21
Laffey, Aaron	LR	1	1	5.56	5.15	4.59
Kontos, George	LR	1	1	5.38	4.98	5.02
Reliever Total		9	4	4.48	4.15	4.02
Team Total		18	10	4.77	4.30	4.19

RA: Runs allowed per 9, calculated as 1.08*ERA
ERA: Earned runs allowed per 9
FIP: Fielding independent pitching

Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Price, David	SP1	7	3	3.84	3.41	3.50
Shields, James	SP2	0	0	4.03	3.70	3.68
Hellickson, Jeremy	SP3	7	3	3.85	3.55	3.97
Niemann, Jeff	SP4	0	0	4.11	3.95	4.11
Davis, Wade	SP5	0	0	4.61	4.34	4.51
Moore, Matt	SP6	0	0	4.57	4.23	4.10
	SP7	0
	SP8	0
Starter Total		14	6	3.84	3.48	3.74
Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Farnsworth, Kyle	CL	1	0	3.53	3.27	3.23
Peralta, Joel	SU	1	0	3.35	3.10	3.50
Howell, J.P.	SU	1	1	4.64	4.30	4.08
Cruz, Juan	SU	1	1	4.75	4.40	4.40
McGee, Jake	MR	0	0	4.56	4.22	4.03
Gomes, Brandon	MR	0	0	4.21	3.90	3.71
Ramos, Cesar	MR	0	0	5.18	4.80	4.43
De La Rosa, Dane	LR	0	0	5.03	4.66	4.40
Sonnanstine, Andy	LR	0	0	5.43	5.03	4.88

Reliever Total		4	2	4.07	3.77	3.80
Team Total		18	8	3.89	3.54	3.75

Obviously the assumption here is 18 innings over two games. I don’t know if the Yankees would actually start Dellin Betances tomorrow, but I’m not sure who else they’d consider and the difference over four projected innings is minimal.

I am not going to bother with defense here, since it’s mostly covered in the pitching projections and trying to tease out two games of defense is more likely to be counter-productive than tell us anything useful.

How about the Red Sox and Orioles?

Name	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Ellsbury, Jacoby	CF	8	.306/.349/.482	5	1.20	.357	.341	.363
Crawford, Carl	LF	8	.286/.327/.443	5	1.05	.333	.304	.345
Pedroia, Dustin	2B	8	.290/.362/.454	5	1.13	.355	.370	.349
Ortiz, David	DH	8	.286/.367/.548	5	1.32	.390	.354	.405
Gonzalez, Adrian	1B	8	.327/.412/.588	5	1.51	.426	.389	.443
Lowrie, Jed	3B	8	.259/.316/.409	5	0.91	.316	.341	.303
Drew, J.D.	RF	8	.263/.346/.454	5	1.06	.349	.319	.359
Saltalamacchia, Jarrod	C	8	.235/.290/.416	6	0.86	.305	.285	.316
Scutaro, Marco	SS	8	.281/.347/.394	5	0.96	.328	.361	.295
Starter Total		72	.281/.346/.465	47	10.00	.351	.340	.353
Bench	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Aviles, Mike	IF	0	.268/.296/.413	0	0.00	.305	.319	.298
Varitek, Jason	C	0	.234/.303/.434	0	0.00	.317	.332	.311
Jackson, Conor	OF	2	.250/.324/.364	1	0.21	.309	.325	.302
Aviles, Mike	IF	0	.268/.296/.413	0	0.00	.305	.319	.298
McDonald, Darnell	OF	0	.269/.316/.449	0	0.00	.326	.339	.310
Gathright, Joey	OF	0	.239/.291/.311	0	0.00	.269	.255	.272
Lavarnway, Ryan	C	2	.255/.332/.467	1	0.27	.345	.358	.338
Drew, J.D.	OF	0	.263/.346/.454	0	0.00	.349	.319	.359
Bench Total		4	.252/.328/.415	3	0.48	.327	.342	.320
Team Total		76	.280/.345/.462	50	10.48	.350	.340	.351

Name	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Angle, Matt	LF	8	.250/.309/.313	6	0.72	.280	.224	.336
Hardy, J.J.	SS	8	.260/.305/.430	6	0.93	.317	.335	.311
Markakis, Nick	RF	8	.288/.352/.419	5	1.02	.341	.318	.351
Guerrero, Vladimir	DH	8	.295/.329/.460	5	1.03	.341	.356	.336
Wieters, Matt	C	8	.261/.324/.414	5	0.93	.324	.327	.323
Jones, Adam	CF	8	.282/.318/.457	5	1.00	.333	.336	.332
Reynolds, Mark	1B	8	.236/.332/.521	5	1.21	.362	.383	.355
Davis, Chris	3B	8	.271/.321/.476	5	1.08	.341	.318	.350
Andino, Robert	2B	8	.254/.297/.361	6	0.75	.289	.303	.283
Starter Total		72	.267/.321/.428	49	8.67	.325	.322	.331
Bench	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Tatum, Craig	C	0	.219/.276/.292	0	0.00	.256	.268	.252
Fox, Jake	C	0	.265/.323/.476	0	0.00	.343	.349	.339
Adams, Ryan	3B	0	.258/.307/.385	0	0.00	.305	.336	.275
Bell, Josh	IF	0	.239/.290/.407	0	0.00	.303	.308	.301
Hudson, Kyle	IF	0	.226/.282/.263	0	0.00	.250	.230	.252
Reimold, Nolan	OF	1	.255/.334/.437	1	0.13	.337	.349	.330
Florimon Jr., Pedro	OF	0	.224/.278/.329	0	0.00	.268	.268	.268

Bench Total		1	#N/A	1	0.13	.337	.349	.330
Team Total		73	#N/A	50	8.80	.325	.323	.331

Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Beckett, Josh	SP1	0	0	3.76	3.51	3.85
Lester, Jon	SP2	7	3	3.63	3.43	3.45
Bedard, Erik	SP3	5	2	4.02	3.62	3.59
Lackey, John	SP4	0	0	4.89	4.51	4.14
Wakefield, Tim	SP5	0	0	4.93	4.61	5.27
Miller, Andrew	SP6	0	0	6.40	5.58	5.01
Weiland, Kyle	SP7	0	0	5.56	5.15	4.97
Buchholz, Clay	SP8	0	0	4.02	3.59	4.14
Starter Total		12	5	3.79	3.51	3.51
Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Papelbon, Jonathan	CL	2	1	3.29	3.05	2.93
Bard, Daniel	SU	2	1	3.37	3.12	3.51
Wheeler, Dan	SU	1	0	3.96	3.67	4.11
Albers, Matt	SU	0	0	4.59	4.25	3.97
Morales, Franklin	MR	0	0	4.88	4.52	4.75
Atchison, Scott	MR	0	0	3.81	3.53	3.57
Doubront, Felix	MR	0	0	5.35	4.95	4.67
Aceves, Alfredo	LR	1	0	4.00	3.70	4.02
Bowden, Michael	LR	0	0	4.97	4.60	4.79
Buchholz, Clay	LR	0	0	3.88	3.59	4.14
Tazawa, Junichi	LR	6	2	3.55	3.29	3.50
Team Total		18	7	3.71	3.43	3.51

Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Britton, Zach	SP1	5	2	4.44	4.11	4.04
Simon, Alfredo	SP2	5	3	5.13	4.60	4.48
Matusz, Brian	SP3	0	0	4.96	4.69	4.59
Hunter, Tommy	SP4	0	0	4.60	4.38	4.48
Vandenhurk, Rick	SP5	0	0	5.64	5.09	5.38
Guthrie, Jeremy	SP6	0	0	4.39	4.14	4.41
	SP7	0
	SP8	0
Starter Total		10	5	4.78	4.36	4.26
Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Johnson, Jim	CL	1	0	3.93	3.64	3.65
Gregg, Kevin	SU	1	1	4.76	4.41	4.35
Patton, Troy	SU	1	1	5.18	4.80	4.72
Bergesen, Brad	SU	1	1	4.91	4.55	4.57
Accardo, Jeremy	MR	1	1	4.78	4.43	4.18
Berken, Jason	MR	1	1	5.28	4.89	4.40
Eyre, Willie	MR	1	1	4.70	4.35	4.25
Rapada, Clay	LR	1	0	4.44	4.11	3.76
Reyes, Jo-Jo	LR	0	0	5.72	5.30	4.92
Strop, Pedro	LR	0	0	4.59	4.25	3.90
Reliever Total		8	4	4.75	4.40	4.23
Team Total		18	10	4.77	4.37	4.25

Yeah, yeah, yeah, so what does all this nerdy crap mean?

It means this.

Team	Gms	RS	RA	wpct
NYA	2	9.5	9.5	.499
BOS	2	10.5	7.4	.656
TB	2	9.4	7.8	.584
BAL	2	8.8	9.5	.471

And if we use those numbers adjusted for home-field advantage to play out the last two games of the season, here’s what I get for the wild card odds.

Rays: 50.9%
Red Sox: 49.1%

Should be interesting.

--Posted at 4:50 pm by SG / 12 Comments | - (0)

Friday, September 23, 2011

The Wild Card Implications of This Weekend’s Series With Boston

Here are how the odds of winning the wild card change based on the various possible outcomes of this weekend’s series between Boston and the Yankees.

Yankees Sweep	WC%
Red Sox	48.2%
Rays	44.6%
Angels	7.2%
Rangers	0.1%
Yankees 2-1	WC%
Red Sox	75.8%
Rays	21.6%
Angels	2.5%
Rangers	0.1%
Red Sox 2-1	WC%
Red Sox	91.2%
Rays	8.0%
Angels	0.7%
Red Sox Sweep	WC%
Red Sox	98.8%
Rays	1.2%

Weather may affect tonight’s game, which could mean a doubleheader tomorrow or Sunday.

--Posted at 10:51 am by SG / 38 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Yankees.com: Yanks clinch playoff spot with eighth-inning rally

NEW YORK—The Yankees are going back to the playoffs for the 16th time in 17 seasons. Big hits by Eduardo Nunez and Robinson Cano sparked a three-run eighth inning to push New York past Tampa Bay, 4-2, in the Game 1 of a doubleheader Wednesday at Yankee Stadium.

The win ensured that Tampa Bay will not win the American League East title and the Yankees will at least capture the AL Wild Card.

Two more to get the division, and four more for home field advantage.

--Posted at 3:47 pm by SG / 8 Comments | - (0)

2011 Postseason Odds Through Games of September 20

TM	W	L	Div	WC	PL
Tigers	94	68	100.000%	0.000%	100.000%
Phillies	103	59	100.000%	0.000%	100.000%
Brewers	96	66	99.965%	0.028%	99.993%
Yankees	97	65	98.525%	1.345%	99.870%
Diamondbacks	93	69	99.080%	0.161%	99.241%
Rangers	93	69	98.705%	0.144%	98.849%
Braves	92	70	0.000%	85.614%	85.614%
Red Sox	92	70	1.275%	81.829%	83.104%
Rays	90	72	0.200%	15.849%	16.049%
Cardinals	89	73	0.035%	12.708%	12.743%
Giants	88	74	0.920%	1.489%	2.409%
Angels	88	74	1.295%	0.833%	2.128%

Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

--Posted at 7:30 am by SG / 6 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Can The Yankees Get Swept By Tampa Bay and Still Win the AL East?

Here are the shedules for the rest of the season for the teams that are still relevant in the AL wild card/East race.

Date	Yankees	w	Red Sox	w	Rays	w	Rangers	w	Angels	w
9/20/2011	Rays	0	Orioles	0	@Yankees	0	@Athletics	0	@Blue Jays	0
9/21/2011	Rays	0	Orioles	0	@Yankees	0	@Athletics	0	@Blue Jays	0
9/21/2011	Rays	0			@Yankees	0
9/22/2011	Rays	0			@Yankees	0	@Athletics	0	@Blue Jays	0
9/23/2011	Red Sox	0	@Yankees	0	Blue Jays	0	Mariners	0	Athletics	0
9/24/2011	Red Sox	0	@Yankees	0	Blue Jays	0	Mariners	0	Athletics	0
9/25/2011	Red Sox	0	@Yankees	0	Blue Jays	0	Mariners	0	Athletics	0
9/26/2011	@Rays	0	@Orioles	0	Yankees	0	@Angels	0	Rangers	0
9/27/2011	@Rays	0	@Orioles	0	Yankees	0	@Angels	0	Rangers	0
9/28/2011	@Rays	0	@Orioles	0	Yankees	0	@Angels	0	Rangers	0
	current	final	current	final	current	final	current	final	current	final
W	92	92	88	88	85	85	88	88	83	83
L	60	70	66	74	67	77	65	74	70	79

The good news is that the Yankees’ magic number over LAAA of AA is one. The next Yankee win or Angels loss makes it a three way dance, as Paul Heyman would call it. I am going to guarantee that the Angels lose one of their last nine games, so let’s play around with the three way dance scenarios.

Here’s where we are now.

Date	Yankees	w	Red Sox	w	Rays	w
9/20/2011	Rays	0	Orioles	0	@Yankees	0
9/21/2011	Rays	0	Orioles	0	@Yankees	0
9/21/2011	Rays	0			@Yankees	0
9/22/2011	Rays	0			@Yankees	0
9/23/2011	Red Sox	0	@Yankees	0	Blue Jays
9/24/2011	Red Sox	0	@Yankees	0	Blue Jays
9/25/2011	Red Sox	0	@Yankees	0	Blue Jays
9/26/2011	@Rays	0	@Orioles	0	Yankees	0
9/27/2011	@Rays	0	@Orioles	0	Yankees	0
9/28/2011	@Rays	0	@Orioles	0	Yankees	0
	current	final	current	final	current	final
W	92	92	88	88	85	85
L	60	70	66	74	67	77

Here’s where we are assuming Boston and Tampa Bay win all their non-Yankee games.

Date	Yankees	w	Red Sox	w	Rays	w
9/20/2011	Rays	0	Orioles	1	@Yankees	0
9/21/2011	Rays	0	Orioles	1	@Yankees	0
9/21/2011	Rays	0			@Yankees	0
9/22/2011	Rays	0			@Yankees	0
9/23/2011	Red Sox	0	@Yankees	0	Blue Jays	1
9/24/2011	Red Sox	0	@Yankees	0	Blue Jays	1
9/25/2011	Red Sox	0	@Yankees	0	Blue Jays	1
9/26/2011	@Rays	0	@Orioles	1	Yankees	0
9/27/2011	@Rays	0	@Orioles	1	Yankees	0
9/28/2011	@Rays	0	@Orioles	1	Yankees	0
	current	final	current	final	current	final
W	92	92	88	93	85	88
L	60	70	66	69	67	74

A 1 in the ‘w’ column to the right of each team’s name is a win. I guess that means you can put it on the right side. So what this table shows is Boston winning all five of their games against the Orioles, which means 93 wins before considering whatever they may do against the Yankees and Tampa Bay sweeping Toronto.

The Rays have to win at least five games against the Yankees if they want to get to the 93 wins Boston would have if/when they win all their games against Baltimore. If that were to happen, we’d be looking at this:

Date	Yankees	w	Red Sox	w	Rays	w
9/20/2011	Rays	1	Orioles	1	@Yankees	0
9/21/2011	Rays	0	Orioles	1	@Yankees	1
9/21/2011	Rays	0			@Yankees	1
9/22/2011	Rays	1			@Yankees	0
9/23/2011	Red Sox	0	@Yankees	0	Blue Jays	1
9/24/2011	Red Sox	0	@Yankees	0	Blue Jays	1
9/25/2011	Red Sox	0	@Yankees	0	Blue Jays	1
9/26/2011	@Rays	0	@Orioles	1	Yankees	1
9/27/2011	@Rays	0	@Orioles	1	Yankees	1
9/28/2011	@Rays	0	@Orioles	1	Yankees	1
	current	final	current	final	current	final
W	92	94	88	93	85	93
L	60	68	66	69	67	69

In this scenario, the Yankees would have to sweep Boston to beat them out for the division and to give Tampa Bay the wild card. Any loss by Boston vs. the Orioles means the Yankees can take 2-3 against them and still go 2-5 vs. Tampa Bay.

Of course, it’s all moot if Tampa Bay doesn’t sweep the Blue Jays.

If the Yankees win two of their next four games vs. Tampa Bay and Boston wins their two games vs. Baltimore, the Yankees can clinch a tie for the AL East by winning one of the three games vs. Boston. If Boston loses one of their next two against Baltimore the Yankees can clinch the East against them at home. That would be fun.

So I’m hoping for a 2-2 split with Tampa Bay over the next four games with Boston losing one of the next two to the O’s which gives the Yankees three shots to clinch against Boston.

--Posted at 10:36 am by SG / 24 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Yankees.com: Whatever

Freddy Garcia allowed three runs over 4 2/3 innings Sunday, while Yankees bats were held in check by Brandon Morrow in the series finale in Toronto

On September 6, the Yankees beat Baltimore 5-3. It was their sixth straight win and put them at 87-53, and 2.5 games up on Boston in the AL East. Actually, here are the complete AL standings on September 6.

Tm	W	L	GB
NYY	87	53	—
BOS	85	56	2.5
TEX	81	62	7.5
DET	80	62	8.0
TBR	77	64	10.5
LAA	77	65	11.0
CHW	71	69	16.0
CLE	70	69	16.5
TOR	70	72	18.0
OAK	64	78	24.0
KCR	60	83	28.5
SEA	59	82	28.5
MIN	58	84	30.0
BAL	55	85	32.0

The Yankees lost their last home game to Baltimore in 11 innings before embarking on a 10 game, four city road trip that is finally over. The Yankees lost a makeup game in Baltimore before flying out to Anaheim to drop the first two games of a three game series there. They then righted the ship briefly by winning the finale in Los Angeles and then taking the first two in Seattle. They dropped the finale in Seattle and the first one in Toronto and then split the final two games. So they went 4-6 on the trip, and 4-7 in their last 11 games.

We can play the expected record using log5 vs. actual record to see just how badly the Yankees underperformed over the last 11 games.

Date	Game	xW	xL	aW	aL
9/7/2011	vs Orioles	0.7	0.3	0	1
9/8/2011	@ Orioles	0.6	0.4	0	1
9/9/2011	@ Angels	0.5	0.5	0	1
9/10/2011	@ Angels	0.5	0.5	0	1
9/11/2011	@ Angels	0.5	0.5	1	0
9/12/2011	@ Mariners	0.6	0.4	1	0
9/13/2011	@ Mariners	0.6	0.4	1	0
9/14/2011	@ Mariners	0.6	0.4	0	1
9/16/2011	@ Blue Jays	0.6	0.4	0	1
9/17/2011	@ Blue Jays	0.6	0.4	1	0
9/18/2011	@ Blue Jays	0.6	0.4	0	1
		6.3	4.7	4	7

xW/L: Expected wins/losses
aW/L: Actual wins/losses.

So they lost about two more games than they probably should have. If they’d won 2 of the 4 walk-off losses they’d have basically been where they should have been.

Here’s how the standings look now.

Tm	W	L	GB	Gain
NYY	91	60	—
DET	89	64	3.0	5.0
BOS	87	65	4.5	-2.0
TEX	88	65	4.0	3.5
TBR	83	69	8.5	2.0
LAA	83	69	8.5	2.5
TOR	77	75	14.5	3.5
CLE	75	75	15.5	1.0
CHW	74	78	17.5	-1.5
OAK	69	84	23.0	1.0
KCR	67	87	25.5	3.0
SEA	63	89	28.5	0.0
BAL	62	89	29.0	3.0
MIN	59	92	32.0	-2.0

Gain is just the number of games each team gained on the Yankees since September 7.

The saving grace for this debacle of a stretch is that Boston actually played worse, which allowed the Yankees to pick up 2.5 games on them for the AL East. The Yankees were also able to pick up two important games on Minnesota.

Detroit made the biggest move up, which is an issue for possible home field advantage. The Tigers have a much easier schedule than the Yankees over the rest of the season, with only two road games (against Kansas City) and 7 home games, 4 against Baltimore and 3 against Cleveland. Texas also picked up ground in the race for home field advantage, but they have a more difficult schedule than Detroit with six road games against Oakland and California and three home games against Seattle.

The Yankees are probably still over 99% for making the postseason, and about 95% for winning the division. At the beginning of the season I’m sure any of us would have been happy to be in this position right now. But you can’t help but feel disappointed that the Yankees didn’t take advantage of a golden opportunity to put things away over the past week and get themselves into the best position possible heading into the postseason.

--Posted at 7:30 pm by SG / 37 Comments | - (0)

Monday, September 12, 2011

Down The Stretch They Come

Instead of just throwing a bunch of percentages up here like I’d normally do right about now, I wanted to take a more granular look at the remaining schedule for the AL postseason contenders.

The Yankees have won 88 games. The teams in the AL who can exceed that this point are Boston, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Texas, LAAAAAA of AA, Cleveland, the White Sox and Toronto. If all those teams won the rest of their games, here’s where they’d end the year.

Team	W	L	GR	Max
NYY	88	57	17	105
BOS	85	61	16	101
DET	84	62	16	100
TB	81	64	17	98
TEX	83	64	15	98
LAA	80	66	16	96
CLE	72	72	18	90
CWS	73	72	17	90
TOR	74	73	15	89

Because most of those teams play at least a few games against each other, they can’t all win all their remaining games. Cleveland has three games left with the Rangers and four games left with the White Sox, for example. So if they win all their games, Texas can only win at most 93, and the White Sox can only win 86, etc., I feel comfortable in saying that it’s not likely either Cleveland or the White Sox will win more games than the Yankees over the rest of the year. For the purposes of assessing the Yankees’ postseason chances, Detroit’s a non-factor in this scenario, because they can’t contend for the wild card AND win more games than the Yankees.

Toronto plays nothing but teams on that list for the rest of the year, with two vs. Boston, three vs. the Yankees, four vs. the Angels, three vs. the Rays, and three vs. the White Sox. I’m going to go out on a limb and say they’ll lose at least two of those. So I’m going to only look at the other teams.

Team	NYY	BOS	DET	TB	TEX	LAA
NYY		3		6
BOS	3			4
DET
TB	6	4
TEX						3
LAA					3

Texas and California have three games left against each other.

Tampa Bay has six games left vs. the Yankees and four games vs. Boston.

The Yankees have those six games vs. the Rays and three games vs. Boston.

Detroit gets to beat up on cream puffs for the rest of the year, and are right now the team with the highest playoff probability in the American League. So I’m going to say they’re in.

That means you’ve got five teams fighting for three playoff spots.

The first number to think about is that 96 from Anaheim. If they get there, that means Texas can only get to 95. So 96 wins is effectively the clinching number to eliminate the AL west runner-up from the wild card. That obviously goes down each time Texas and LAA lose.

If Tampa Bay can get to 98, that means Boston can only get to 97 and the Yankees can only get to 99. So getting to that 97 from Boston is the bar for the Yankees, although it would only be a tie. Again, that obviously goes down as the Rays/Red Sox lose.

That means the Yankees’ magic number for tying for a postseason spot is nine, and for taking one outright is 10. In the event that the Yankees and Red Sox tied for the last spot, the season series between them wouldn’t matter, and there’d be a one game play-in.

Which the Sox would win handily.

--Posted at 9:39 am by SG / 72 Comments | - (0)

Friday, September 9, 2011

What If?

What if the Yankees hadn’t handed the Orioles two wins on Wednesday and Thursday?

W	L	Div	WC	PL
101	61	88.7%	11.4%	100.0%

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

Instead, we’re looking at

W	L	Div	WC	PL
99	63	75.5%	24.4%	99.9%

What if the Yankees get swept by Anaheim?

W	L	Div	WC	PL
97	65	57.1%	42.3%	99.4%

--Posted at 2:21 pm by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Citizen’s Voice: Mitchell brilliant as Yankees down Buffalo in 2011 finale

D.J. Mitchell had just worked eight dominant innings. Jorge Vazquez drove in three runs and hit as long a home run as he hit in his record-setting season. And 2011 ended on a clean, crisp, 5-1 win over Buffalo.

In that clubhouse, one disappointed days ago that it couldn’t secure the franchise’s unprecedented sixth straight playoff berth, there was a sense of finality to it all.
...
As he was giving his postgame interview, Mitchell’s eyes lunched toward the television. The slugger who helped spark the Yankees offense all season, catcher Jesus Montero, had just hit his second home run of his big league career.

The [Scranton Wilkes/Barre]Yankees players milling around the clubhouse flocked to any television they could find to watch their former teammate trot around the bases.
...
As his old teammates watched Montero take his curtain call, Miley had the last big job of the season. He called outfielder Greg Golson, infielder Ramiro Pena and pitchers Hector Noesi and George Kontos into his office to deliver the news they had been hoping for or, in one case, waiting for an entire lifetime.

They were going to the big leagues.

“I can’t even describe this feeling. It’s surreal,” said Kontos, his cell phone in hand and tears welling in his eyes as he pondered who to call next to talk about his first big-league call-up. “It’s everything I worked for, my whole lifetime. To think that I’m going up, it’s unreal.”

More reinforcements on the way.

And in case you’re curious, here’s an update to the AL postseason odds after yesterday’s action.

TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Yankees	100	62	892	651	72.5%	27.2%	99.7%
Red Sox	97	65	864	692	27.4%	71.5%	98.9%
Rays	88	74	692	609	0.1%	1.3%	1.4%
Blue Jays	80	82	756	743	-	-	-
Orioles	64	98	688	864	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Tigers	90	72	759	726	97.3%	-	97.3%
White Sox	82	80	654	683	1.8%	-	1.8%
Indians	81	81	683	707	0.8%	-	0.8%
Twins	70	92	629	801	-	-	-
Royals	67	95	715	781	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Rangers	91	71	827	700	88.1%	-	88.1%
Angels	86	76	665	638	11.9%	0.0%	11.9%
Athletics	76	86	651	675	-	-	-
Mariners	68	94	559	675	-	-	-

--Posted at 9:31 am by SG / 54 Comments | - (0)

Monday, September 5, 2011

Monte Carlo Standings and Postseason Odds Through September 4, 2011

American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Yankees	99	63	870	657	63.0%	36.7%	99.7%
Red Sox	98	64	860	694	36.9%	62.3%	99.3%
Rays	87	75	705	630	0.1%	0.9%	1.0%
Blue Jays	79	83	745	749	-	-	-
Orioles	64	98	694	841	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Tigers	89	73	740	724	94.2%	-	94.2%
White Sox	82	80	672	681	4.0%	-	4.0%
Indians	80	82	688	720	1.9%	-	1.9%
Twins	71	91	662	791	-	-	-
Royals	67	95	706	782	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Rangers	91	71	815	696	92.1%	0.0%	92.1%
Angels	86	76	666	650	7.9%	0.0%	7.9%
Athletics	75	87	654	668	-	-	-
Mariners	69	93	574	678	-	-	-
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Phillies	103	59	736	555	98.0%	2.0%	100.0%
Braves	94	68	678	605	2.0%	95.4%	97.4%
Mets	80	82	723	733	-	0.0%	0.0%
Nationals	75	87	632	688	-	-	-
Marlins	73	89	647	717	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Brewers	95	67	723	659	98.7%	0.2%	98.9%
Cardinals	86	76	761	714	1.3%	2.1%	3.3%
Reds	81	81	751	711	-	-	-
Pirates	74	88	633	706	-	-	-
Cubs	70	92	664	768	-	-	-
Astros	56	106	610	787	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Diamondbacks	89	73	713	689	83.2%	0.1%	83.3%
Giants	85	77	575	585	15.9%	0.3%	16.2%
Dodgers	80	82	641	630	0.8%	0.0%	0.8%
Rockies	78	84	744	751	0.1%	-	0.1%
Padres	71	91	614	637	-	-	-

Not looking like too much suspense aside from seeding at this point.

--Posted at 9:14 am by SG / 10 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

The Implications of this Series with Boston

At this point, I have Boston as around a 2-1 favorite for winning the AL East.

So, here’s how that changes based on the various potential outcomes for this series.

Now	W	L	Div
Red Sox	100.0	62.0	67.5%
Yankees	97.9	64.1	32.5%
Yankee Sweep	W	L	Div
Yankees	98.8	63.2	56.5%
Red Sox	98.0	64.0	43.0%
Yankees 2-1	W	L	Div
Red Sox	99.4	62.6	59.5%
Yankees	98.0	64.0	40.5%
Boston 2-1	W	L	Div
Red Sox	100.1	62.0	71.5%
Yankees	97.6	64.4	28.5%
Boston sweep	W	L	Div
Red Sox	100.9	61.1	84.0%
Yankees	96.2	65.8	16.0%

Tampa Bay is still technically in the divisional picture, their chances just aren’t registering above the .5% threshold needed to be seen here. The fact that Boston and the Yankees play each other six times makes it that much harder for the Rays to catch both.

So basically, if the Yankees still want a realistic shot at winning the division, they have to sweep this series. I probably don’t have to tell you that the likelihood of that is slim.

--Posted at 7:39 am by SG / 34 Comments | - (0)

Monday, August 15, 2011

MLB 2011 Monte Carlo Postseason Odds Through August 15

As requested by ml242.

American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Red Sox	98.1	63.9	862	683	51.1%	46.8%	97.8%
Yankees	97.8	64.2	854	647	48.6%	49.1%	97.7%
Rays	85.6	76.4	709	656	0.3%	3.3%	3.6%
Blue Jays	80.4	81.6	741	746	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%
Orioles	63.6	98.4	693	841	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Tigers	86.6	75.4	720	727	66.1%	0.0%	66.2%
White Sox	82.4	79.6	666	677	19.6%	0.0%	19.6%
Indians	80.8	81.2	699	712	13.4%	0.0%	13.4%
Twins	75.0	87.0	661	766	0.9%	-	0.9%
Royals	66.6	95.4	696	783	0.0%	-	0.0%
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Rangers	90.7	71.3	811	680	82.8%	0.1%	82.9%
Angels	84.8	77.2	634	629	17.1%	0.4%	17.5%
Athletics	75.2	86.8	644	659	0.1%	-	0.1%
Mariners	71.5	90.5	568	650	0.0%	-	0.0%
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Phillies	102.3	59.7	723	561	96.3%	3.6%	99.9%
Braves	92.0	70.0	690	618	3.7%	78.8%	82.5%
Mets	78.4	83.6	724	726	-	0.3%	0.3%
Marlins	76.7	85.3	651	699	-	0.1%	0.1%
Nationals	76.2	85.8	641	691	-	0.1%	0.1%
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Brewers	91.4	70.6	717	676	77.7%	3.5%	81.2%
Cardinals	86.7	75.3	763	705	20.8%	6.7%	27.4%
Reds	81.0	81.0	756	703	1.4%	0.7%	2.1%
Pirates	75.0	87.0	628	693	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Cubs	73.3	88.7	682	781	0.0%	-	0.0%
Astros	54.7	107.3	604	797	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Giants	89.0	73.0	591	584	68.0%	2.5%	70.5%
Diamondbacks	86.1	75.9	725	715	30.6%	3.6%	34.2%
Rockies	77.2	84.8	732	739	0.6%	0.0%	0.6%
Dodgers	77.2	84.8	618	641	0.6%	0.1%	0.7%
Padres	73.7	88.3	620	639	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%

The Yankees have a slightly easier group of opponents down the stretch than Boston, but Boston has that half game lead in hand, and a more favorable split of home/road games. Really though, the AL East is a tossup at this point, and unless the Yankees can do the unimaginable and actually win a series against Boston, they won’t deserve to win the East anyway.

I have to say, it’s looking like we’re not going to have much in the way of pennant races going forward, although a few races are tight enough to be interesting depending on how things go.

Of course that won’t stop Bud Selig from trying to dilute the postseason even more.

--Posted at 1:45 pm by SG / 16 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

WSJ: The Yankees’ Run Differential Suggests Greatness

Through Sunday, the Yankees have scored the second-most runs in the league (560) and allowed the second fewest (410). That differential of 1.4 runs per game is the best mark in all of baseball. And it’s been surpassed by just one of the five World Series champion teams that have hoisted the flag at the Stadium during the Derek Jeter era. Only the 1998 Yankees bested it at plus-1.9 runs in 1998.

If we’re talking about ability, then we have to be consider the fact that the team’s YTD run differential doesn’t tell us everything about them. We have to consider the sustainability of their performance to this point.

Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	R	BR
Yankees	4143	3619	950	174	24	139	106	34	413	729	.263	.342	.439	.782	563	534
Opponents	4088	3662	911	190	16	81	86	26	337	793	.249	.316	.376	.692	412	434

The key thing here is to compare the actual runs scored/allowed so far this year (R) with the linear weights batting runs (BR). What BR does is consider the average run value of everything a team has done and puts their runs scored/allowed into a context-neutral equivalent. This is more predictive than actual runs scored/allowed data since that can be skewed by things besides skill.

As you can see, the Yankees have scored a few more runs than their peripheral stats say they should have scored and they’ve allowed fewer. So their 563 runs scored and 412 runs allowed indicate that they’ve played at around the level of a .643 wpct/104 win team and their context-neutral numbers say they’ve played more like a .596 wpct/97 win team.

None of that really matters by the time the postseason gets here. Although it’s premature to start booking our reservations the Yankees are probably at about a 96% of making the postseason right now, based on a run of my Monte Carlo simulator as of this morning.

MLB Team	Div	WC	PL
Phillies	91.6%	7.5%	99.0%
Red Sox	53.9%	43.4%	97.3%
Yankees	45.8%	50.2%	96.0%
Braves	8.3%	67.2%	75.4%
Rangers	72.1%	1.0%	73.1%
Giants	58.5%	5.6%	64.1%
Tigers	58.5%	-	58.5%
Brewers	53.4%	2.2%	55.6%
Diamondbacks	39.6%	7.0%	46.6%
Cardinals	31.3%	2.5%	33.8%
Angels	27.6%	0.9%	28.5%
Indians	23.2%	-	23.2%
White Sox	16.4%	0.4%	16.7%
Reds	8.0%	1.9%	9.9%
Pirates	7.3%	0.7%	8.0%
Rays	0.4%	3.5%	3.9%
Mets	0.1%	3.5%	3.6%
Twins	2.0%	-	2.0%
Rockies	1.6%	0.3%	2.0%
Marlins	-	1.1%	1.1%
Blue Jays	0.1%	0.6%	0.7%
Nationals	0.1%	0.5%	0.6%
Dodgers	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%
Athletics	0.3%	-	0.3%
Padres	0.1%	-	0.1%
Royals	0.1%	-	0.1%
Orioles	-	-	-
Mariners	-	-	-
Cubs	-	-	-
Astros	-	-	-

Div: Probability of winning division
WC: Probability of winning wild card
PL: Probability of qualifying for the playoffs (Div + WC)

If by some miracle the Yankees do make the postseason, we’ll have to re-assess how good they are at that point in time and the only thing the regular season will have given us is a bit more information about how good the players they’ll have on their roster might be.

I’ve always mentally defined a great team as one that led their league in both runs scored and fewest runs allowed. Kind of like the aforementioned 1998 Yankees. I don’t think the 2011 Yankees are a great team. But they’re pretty damn good, even if we forget that sometimes. At least until they get swept by Boston again.

--Posted at 10:05 am by SG / 36 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, June 30, 2011

Monte Carlo Postseason Odds Through June 30, 2011

It’s been a while since I ran these, so here’s how my Monte Carlo simulator sees the rest of the season playing out. Team projections are revised using pre-season projections adjusted for roster changes combined with YTD performance. I add some uncertainty to account for the fact that we really can’t quantify everything about the teams right now and then run the rest of the season is then played out 10,000 times. Those results are added to what’s happened so far to give estimated final win totals and likelihoods of winning the division or wild card.

Date	6/30/2011
Iterations	10000
American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Yankees	96.4	65.6	827	683	53.3%	32.5%	85.8%
Red Sox	94.5	67.5	824	684	38.1%	41.4%	79.5%
Rays	86.9	75.1	738	680	8.2%	18.8%	27.0%
Blue Jays	77.0	85.0	700	742	0.3%	1.3%	1.6%
Orioles	72.1	89.9	723	777	0.1%	0.5%	0.6%
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Tigers	86.4	75.6	730	704	54.0%	1.2%	55.2%
Indians	82.0	80.0	713	748	23.4%	1.2%	24.6%
White Sox	80.8	81.2	704	706	18.4%	0.6%	18.9%
Twins	74.5	87.5	713	740	4.0%	0.1%	4.1%
Royals	66.2	95.8	685	802	0.3%	0.0%	0.3%
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Rangers	87.0	75.0	750	689	62.9%	0.9%	63.7%
Angels	81.6	80.4	651	664	23.3%	1.1%	24.3%
Athletics	77.4	84.6	645	629	8.8%	0.4%	9.2%
Mariners	75.0	87.0	614	672	5.1%	0.2%	5.3%
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Phillies	96.5	65.5	709	608	69.9%	20.8%	90.7%
Braves	91.3	70.7	703	632	27.5%	39.6%	67.1%
Mets	80.5	81.5	718	721	1.7%	5.6%	7.3%
Nationals	77.9	84.1	658	710	0.6%	3.2%	3.8%
Marlins	74.3	87.7	668	685	0.3%	1.0%	1.3%
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Brewers	86.2	75.8	718	699	33.7%	6.2%	39.8%
Cardinals	86.0	76.0	751	722	32.4%	5.6%	38.0%
Reds	85.6	76.4	748	696	28.4%	5.8%	34.2%
Pirates	78.0	84.0	661	738	5.2%	1.3%	6.5%
Cubs	71.9	90.1	700	749	0.4%	0.1%	0.5%
Astros	60.4	101.6	604	754	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Giants	89.4	72.6	654	612	65.4%	3.6%	69.0%
Diamondbacks	81.9	80.1	687	730	15.4%	3.2%	18.6%
Rockies	81.3	80.7	748	732	12.6%	3.3%	15.9%
Dodgers	76.3	85.7	658	662	3.7%	0.6%	4.3%
Padres	74.7	87.3	629	660	2.9%	0.2%	3.1%

I usually like to look at which teams the projections missed by the most, so here’s the list of all teams sorted by the gap between their revised win projections and their pre-season projections here.

Team	pW	opW	pW+/-
Diamondbacks	82	73.0	8.9
Pirates	78	70.2	7.8
Indians	82	74.3	7.7
Phillies	96	90.6	5.9
Nationals	78	72.3	5.6
Yankees	96	92.4	4.0
Braves	91	87.3	4.0
Angels	82	77.9	3.7
Brewers	86	83.1	3.2
Blue Jays	77	73.9	3.1
Cardinals	86	83.3	2.7
Tigers	86	84.6	1.8
Mariners	75	73.6	1.4
Giants	89	88.0	1.4
Mets	80	79.5	1.0
Rays	87	86.1	0.9
Red Sox	95	94.4	0.1
Reds	86	85.5	0.1
Rangers	87	88.0	-1.0
Rockies	81	83.1	-1.8
White Sox	81	82.8	-2.0
Royals	66	68.4	-2.2
Padres	75	79.0	-4.3
Astros	60	65.9	-5.5
Orioles	72	78.6	-6.5
Athletics	77	84.6	-7.2
Dodgers	76	83.6	-7.3
Marlins	74	81.9	-7.6
Cubs	72	79.8	-7.9
Twins	74	84.4	-9.9

The Yankees have picked up a few games on their pre-season projections, although there are a few teams ahead of them in that regard.

If you’re a Diamondbacks fan, you can be happy that your team now looks like they’re on target to get to 82 wins. If you’re a Twins fan, you can be glad that you got a bunch of crap for Johan Santana I guess.

--Posted at 8:11 pm by SG / 11 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, May 28, 2011

TGS NY: Joe’s handling of ‘pen not so mighty

David Robertson got out of a bed in Tuscaloosa, Alabama at 4:30 a.m. Eastern time Friday morning. Nearly 20 hours later, he was on the mound at Safeco Field, doing his job to perfection, pitching an overpowering eighth inning against the Mariners.

Trouble was, the game had already been lost two innings earlier.

But that’s what happens when a manager sticks to a game plan even if the game no longer fits his plan.

Robertson, back from a mission of mercy to his tornado-ravaged hometown, was no doubt the most tired man in the Yankee bullpen. He was also the only one able to do his job. Unfortunately, by the time he was asked to do it, it was too late. At the time, the Yankees trailed 4-3, and that’s the way it would stay.

I didn’t get to watch the game, so I’d be interested in everyone else’s take, but here’s how I see the situation. With Burnett at 97 pitches with five walks through five innings, I don’t think anyone would quibble with the fact that he was pulled prior to the sixth inning. So the question then is who should have started the bottom of the sixth. With Adam Kennedy (LHB), Miguel Olivo (RHB) and Carlos Peguero (LHB) due up, I can understand the thought process behind starting the sixth inning with Boone Logan. You need to get four innings out of your bullpen, so unless you want one of Robertson, Joba Chamberlain or Mariano Rivera to pitch two innings you needed to get some outs from someone other than those three.

Logan allowed a leadoff single to Kennedy. So now with a RHB up and with the likelihood of a pinch-hitter for Peguero to re-gain the platoon advantage, going to the bullpen for a RHP made sense as well. Unfortunately, Girardi opted for Luis Ayala instead of Robertson and that’s when the game was lost.

Ayala probably would have pitched an inning at some point in the game, so the real problem is that he and Logan didn’t do their jobs. However, once Kennedy reached Girardi should have used a better pitcher due to the leverage of the situation, and not the pitcher who’s ordinal spot in the bullpen hierarchy was now due. If you intended to pitch Robertson or Chamberlain if necessary anyway, they’d have been the better choices in that spot. If they extended themselves to get out of the inning, you could then go to Ayala to begin the seventh with whichever of Robertson or Chamberlain wasn’t used as a safety net to get the game to Rivera.

Again, the real issue is that Logan and Ayala didn’t execute. But it’s fair to say that Girardi’s deployment of the bullpen after Logan is also culpable.

The Yankees really don’t have much margin for error on this road trip if you look at the schedule for the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays over the rest of this West Coast swing.

Date	Yankee	xW	xL	Red Sox	xW	xL	Rays	xW	xL
5/28/2011	@ Mariners	.58	.42	@ Tigers	.53	.47	vs Indians	.58	.42
5/29/2011	@ Mariners	.58	.42	@ Tigers	.53	.47	vs Indians	.58	.42
5/30/2011	@ Athletics	.51	.49	vs White Sox	.62	.38	vs Rangers	.54	.46
5/31/2011	@ Athletics	.51	.49	vs White Sox	.62	.38	vs Rangers	.54	.46
6/1/2011	@ Athletics	.51	.49	vs White Sox	.62	.38	vs Rangers	.54	.46
6/2/2011							@Mariners	.54	.46
6/3/2011	@ Angels	.54	.46	vs Athletics	.59	.41	@Mariners	.54	.46
6/4/2011	@ Angels	.54	.46	vs Athletics	.59	.41	@Mariners	.54	.46
6/5/2011	@ Angels	.54	.46	vs Athletics	.59	.41	@Mariners	.54	.46
		4.32	3.68		4.72	3.28		4.95	4.05

At this point Boston and the Rays have around a one game advantage over the Yankees over the next nine days, at which point the Yankees will return home to face Boston, Cleveland and Texas on a nine game home stand. It’s not inconceivable that the Yankees could be trailing Boston and/or Tampa Bay by three or four games by then. And that’s not exactly the kind of home stand that would allow the Yankees to catch up if they falter on the rest of this trip.

Right now I’ve got Boston projected to finish around 93-69, the Yankees around 91-71 and Tampa Bay around 88-74. If that’s how things still look by the end of this road trip I’d happily take it.

--Posted at 8:34 am by SG / 21 Comments | - (0)

Friday, May 13, 2011

The Implications of this Weekend’s Series with Boston

The Red Sox have been playing better since their rough start but are still trying to fight their way to .500. The Yankees have stumbled a bit over their last ten games, losing 6 and are now in second place in the AL East behind the Tampa Bay Rays, although even in the loss column.

So with a three game set beginning tonight in the Bronx between the Yankees and Boston, here’s a look at how the different ways this series may affect the AL East going forward.

First of all, here’s how my Monte Carlo simulator says the AL East would play out as of today.

Team	W	L	Div	WC	PL
Red Sox	85.8	76.2	14.6%	17.6%	32.1%
Yankees	92.1	69.9	50.8%	23.7%	74.5%
Rays	89.8	72.2	34.3%	27.6%	61.9%
Blue Jays	74.1	87.9	0.2%	0.4%	0.6%
Orioles	74.5	87.5	0.2%	1.2%	1.4%

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

When Boston sweeps this series, here’s how things will look.

Team	W	L	Div	WC	PL
Red Sox	87.5	74.5	23.2%	22.1%	45.3%
Yankees	90.3	71.7	38.2%	25.3%	63.4%
Rays	90.0	72.0	38.0%	23.5%	61.5%
Blue Jays	73.6	88.4	0.0%	0.7%	0.8%
Orioles	74.5	87.5	0.5%	1.4%	1.9%

There’s a miniscule chance the Yankees take one of the three games, and if that were to happen here’s how things would shake out.

Team	W	L	Div	WC	PL
Red Sox	86.4	75.6	15.8%	20.9%	36.6%
Yankees	91.5	70.5	46.9%	24.5%	71.5%
Rays	90.0	72.0	37.1%	23.8%	60.9%
Blue Jays	73.8	88.2	0.1%	0.9%	1.0%
Orioles	74.1	87.9	0.1%	0.9%	0.9%

I suppose there’s an infinitesimal chance the Yankees take two of three games in which case here’s how things would project going forward.

Team	W	L	Div	WC	PL
Red Sox	85.7	76.3	13.8%	18.6%	32.4%
Yankees	91.9	70.1	50.4%	23.6%	73.9%
Rays	90.2	71.8	35.4%	27.5%	62.9%
Blue Jays	74.3	87.7	0.3%	0.7%	1.0%
Orioles	74.0	88.0	0.2%	0.6%	0.7%

In the completely theoretical and impossible scenario where the Yankees sweep, this would be the net result.

Team	W	L	Div	WC	PL
Red Sox	84.6	77.4	10.6%	15.6%	26.1%
Yankees	93.5	68.5	58.3%	24.5%	82.8%
Rays	89.9	72.1	30.5%	28.8%	59.3%
Blue Jays	73.6	88.4	0.2%	1.1%	1.2%
Orioles	74.3	87.7	0.5%	1.3%	1.8%

One of my foibles is superstition. Because of that, I see no way a series against Boston that kicks off on a Friday the 13th is going to go well. Hopefully I’m wrong.

--Posted at 11:16 am by SG / 29 Comments | - (0)

Friday, April 22, 2011

MLB.com: MLB considering expanded playoffs for 2012

Major League Baseball is still working toward expanding the playoffs in time for the 2012 postseason, Commissioner Bud Selig said in New York on Thursday.

“I would say we’re moving to expanding the playoffs, but there’s a myriad of details to work out,” Selig said Thursday at his annual meeting with the Associated Press Sports Editors. “Ten is a fair number.”

After the GMs and owners met this past November there seemed to be universal agreement that two more Wild Card teams should be added to the playoff mix, making it 10 out of the 30 MLB teams qualifying for the postseason. But the length of the first round—whether it be a single play-in game or a best-of-three series—and how to fit it into the schedule is still to be determined.

Put me down in the do not like category. While it probably means the Yankees are going to make the playoffs in just about every year, it cheapens the regular season and makes it more likely the best team in baseball in any given season will not win the World Series.

I hope that whatever they decide to do makes it much harder for the wild card teams to advance.

--Posted at 8:42 am by SG / 41 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, April 7, 2011

The Implications of This Weekend’s Series with Boston

You may or may not have heard, but the best team in baseball history has gotten off to a rough start at 0-6. It’s important to understand what that means in the big picture. It’s too small of a sample size to meaningfully change our estimate of how good they are. However, those games do count, and they do need to be factored into whatever we forecast Boston to do going forward.

If Boston was a 94-95 win team over 162 games at the start of the year, they’re probably still a 94-95 win team. However, they only have 156 games left to play. At the same winning percentage, they’re more like a 91 win team now. Here’s a quick look at the average projections for the AL East at the start of the season according to the aggregate from the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout.

TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Red Sox	94.4	67.6	817	687	42.1%	17.8%	59.8%
Yankees	92.4	69.6	812	707	32.8%	18.2%	51.0%
Rays	86.1	75.9	762	704	16.0%	13.4%	29.4%
Orioles	78.6	83.4	748	777	6.0%	6.5%	12.5%
Blue Jays	73.9	88.1	686	751	3.1%	3.2%	6.3%

It’s certainly possible that some of these projections were wrong from the start, but we don’t have enough information to know that yet.

Re-running that exercise taking into account what’s actually happened to this point gives us these revised results.

TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Yankees	92.1	69.9	812	707	40.2%	16.4%	56.6%
Red Sox	91.1	70.9	817	687	36.5%	19.3%	55.8%
Rays	81.8	80.2	762	704	12.9%	9.5%	22.4%
Orioles	77.8	84.2	748	777	6.3%	6.9%	13.2%
Blue Jays	73.5	88.5	686	751	4.2%	3.5%	7.6%

So if everything played out as projected going forward (it won’t), the Yankees are now slight favorites in the AL East. That was easy enough.

Using that as our new baseline, here are how those would look depending on the various potential results of the Yankees’ three game series in Fenway this weekend.

Boston Sweeps

TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Red Sox	92.4	69.6	817	687	41.3%	18.2%	59.5%
Yankees	90.1	71.9	812	707	34.1%	16.9%	51.1%
Rays	83.0	79.0	762	704	14.0%	10.8%	24.8%
Orioles	78.3	83.7	748	777	7.8%	6.9%	14.7%
Blue Jays	73.0	89.1	686	751	2.8%	3.5%	6.3%

This is basically how things looked in the preseason, with Boston about two games better than the Yankees.

Boston wins 2 of 3

TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Red Sox	91.4	70.6	817	687	37.3%	17.3%	54.6%
Yankees	91.3	70.7	812	707	35.9%	18.0%	53.9%
Rays	82.4	79.6	762	704	15.7%	11.5%	27.1%
Orioles	78.3	83.7	748	777	7.8%	7.8%	15.6%
Blue Jays	73.4	88.6	686	751	3.4%	3.3%	6.7%

For all intents and purposes that makes things a dead heat.

Yankees win 2 of 3

TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Yankees	92.0	70.0	812	707	40.6%	18.6%	59.1%
Red Sox	90.6	71.4	817	687	35.9%	18.1%	53.9%
Rays	81.9	80.1	762	704	13.0%	9.4%	22.4%
Orioles	78.6	83.4	748	777	8.0%	7.7%	15.7%
Blue Jays	72.8	89.2	686	751	2.6%	3.7%	6.3%

While not my ideal scenario, I would approve of this outcome.

Yankees Sweep

TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Yankees	93.9	68.1	812	707	47.2%	17.0%	64.2%
Red Sox	89.3	72.7	817	687	29.6%	16.8%	46.4%
Rays	82.3	79.7	762	704	13.4%	10.7%	24.1%
Orioles	77.7	84.3	748	777	6.5%	6.5%	13.0%
Blue Jays	73.1	88.9	686	751	3.3%	3.6%	6.9%

This is my preferred result.

These odds can swing pretty wildly after just a few games, so don’t take them too seriously. This is particularly true in baseball where divisional rivals play each other so frequently.

Now obviously it’s really early in the season and we have no idea what will actually happen, but can you imagine the hysteria if the Yankees take all three games?

Looking at the pitching matchups, the Yankees are probably underdogs in the first two games.

Friday, April 8
Phil “88 mph” Hughes vs. John “World Series Hero” Lackey

Saturday, April 9
Ivan Nova vs. Clay Buchholz

The good news is they should probably be slight favorites in the finale

Sunday, April 10
CC “Future Red Sock” Sabathia vs. Josh “Guardian of playing the game right” Beckett

So the most likely scenario is that the Red Sox take two of three, and really that’s fine with me. I just don’t want to see the Yankees get swept.

--Posted at 6:00 pm by SG / 74 Comments | - (0)

Monday, April 4, 2011

2011 March/April Expectations

I was looking at the Yankees’ early season schedule and wanted to see what a reasonable expectation is for their performance over the next month. So using the 2011 CAIRO projected team W/L records and Bill James’s log 5 expected win method, here’s how things look.

Date	Game	xW	xL	aW	aL	aW-xW	cxW	cxL	caW	caL	caW-cxW
3/31/2011	vs Tigers	.61	.39	1	0	.39	0.6	0.4	1.0	0.0	0.4
4/2/2011	vs Tigers	.61	.39	1	0	.39	1.2	0.8	2.0	0.0	0.8
4/3/2011	vs Tigers	.61	.39	0	1	-.61	1.8	1.2	2.0	1.0	0.2
4/4/2011	vs Twins	.61	.39				2.4	1.6
4/5/2011	vs Twins	.61	.39				3.0	2.0
4/6/2011	vs Twins	.61	.39				3.6	2.4
4/7/2011	vs Twins	.61	.39				4.2	2.8
4/8/2011	@ Red Sox	.45	.55				4.7	3.3
4/9/2011	@ Red Sox	.45	.55				5.1	3.9
4/10/2011	@ Red Sox	.45	.55				5.6	4.4
4/12/2011	vs Orioles	.64	.36				6.2	4.8
4/13/2011	vs Orioles	.64	.36				6.9	5.1
4/14/2011	vs Orioles	.64	.36				7.5	5.5
4/15/2011	vs Rangers	.56	.44				8.1	5.9
4/16/2011	vs Rangers	.56	.44				8.6	6.4
4/17/2011	vs Rangers	.56	.44				9.2	6.8
4/19/2011	@ Blue Jays	.57	.43				9.8	7.2
4/20/2011	@ Blue Jays	.57	.43				10.3	7.7
4/22/2011	@ Orioles	.56	.44				10.9	8.1
4/23/2011	@ Orioles	.56	.44				11.5	8.5
4/24/2011	@ Orioles	.56	.44				12.0	9.0
4/25/2011	vs White Sox	.61	.39				12.6	9.4
4/26/2011	vs White Sox	.61	.39				13.2	9.8
4/27/2011	vs White Sox	.61	.39				13.8	10.2
4/28/2011	vs White Sox	.61	.39				14.4	10.6
4/29/2011	vs Blue Jays	.65	.35				15.1	10.9
4/30/2011	vs Blue Jays	.65	.35				15.7	11.3

xW: Expected win probability
xL: Expected loss probability
aW: Actual win
aL: Actual loss
aW-xW: Actual win minus expected win. Positive is good, negative is bad
cxW: Cumulative xW
cxL: Cumulative expected losses
caW: Cumulative actual wins
caL: Cumulative actual losses
caW-cxW: Cumulative actual wins minus cumulative expected wins

The key thing here is the home/road split. The Yankees play 19 of their first 27 games at home, which is a big advantage. Of course, that then means that at some point in the year they’re going to play a whole bunch of games on the road, which is a disadvantage. The Yankees play 47 of their first 81 games at home(58%), which means the second half of the season has the potential to be rough. So, if they want to leave April on a pace that would match their season-long expectations, they really need to go 16-11 or so. Well, actually 14-10 since they took two of three from Detroit which puts them about 0.2 wins ahead of these expectations.

Since I know someone will ask, Boston has to play 15 of their first 27 games on the road. In an eerie coincidence they have the exact same log5 expected record. That’s because their games are against a somewhat weaker group of opponents. If you sum the projected winning percentages of each team’s opponents on a game by game basis, the Yankees collective opponents have a winning percentage of about .508 and the Red Sox have an opponent winning percentage of .502. It’s a difference of about a game over a month. Since the Red Sox got swept in Texas, they’re currently about 1.5 games off their expectations and need to go something like 16-8 through the end of April to catch up.

If the aggregate results of the 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout were accurate, the Red Sox were projected as being about two games better than the Yankees. Since the Yankees are now 0.2 wins ahead of where they projected to be and Boston’s 1.5 games behind where they’re projected to be, the two teams are essentially on equal footing now. So it’ll be a dogfight for the wild card behind the surging Baltimore Orioles.

--Posted at 9:41 am by SG / 8 Comments | - (0)

Monday, March 28, 2011

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - American League Edition

Opening Day is just days away, so it’s time to present my annual Diamond Mind Projection blowout. The idea behind this is to take several projection systems and run the 2011 season multiple times through Diamond Mind Baseball, which I consider to be the most statistically accurate baseball simulator available.

I’ve done a version of this since 2005. If you want to see how previous runs have gone, here are the links:

2005
2006
2007
2008 Pt 1
2008 Pt 2
2009 AL
2009 NL
2010 AL
2010 NL

As you can see if you look at the prior runs, the results can be hit and miss, but that’s certainly understandable.

Before I present the projected standings, it’s disclaimer time.

1) Projection systems are inherently limited in their accuracy, particularly for pitchers. We can get a rough idea of how most players will perform by looking at their past histories and how similar players have performed, and factoring in aging and regression, but abilities/talent can change in ways that can’t be forecasted.

2) Playing time distribution in these simulations will not match actual 2011 playing time. I used the rosters and depth charts available at the absolutely awesome MLB Depth Charts as my guide to set these up as realistically as possible, but it’s a possible source of error. Rosters were set up to have 35-40 or so active players per team, and to get a reasonable amount of playing time from the bench and extra pitchers, to more closely model reality. Basically, no players are set to play more than 90% of the time, starting catchers are restricted to at most about 75% of the games, and I’ve made sure teams get a non-trivial amount of starts from their 6-8 starters. The healthier a team is in 2011, the more likely they will be to exceed these projections.

3) We cannot predict injuries and/or roster changes. These simulations do try to adjust projected playing time based on past health issues, so someone like Brandon Webb or Erik Bedard is not expected to make 30 starts. I’ve also included random injuries which may lead to some of the outlying results you see, but there’s no way to account for all the fluctuations that will happen with rosters this season.

4) These are NOT my predictions. These are projections based on running a computer simulation hundreds of thousands of times with projection data that is inherently limited. If your favorite team doesn’t project well, don’t blame me, blame the computers and spreadsheets that projected them. I guess you can blame me for the CAIRO results if you want, otherwise you can take heart in the 2005 White Sox projecting to win 79 games, the 2006 Tigers projecting to win 80, or the 2010 Giants projecting to go 81-81. These are not meant to tell you how the season is going to play out. I prefer to think of them more as a starting point for discussion, with a range of something like 10 wins in either direction based on how things actually end up playing out. You can look at them and argue about why you think some teams will be better or worse.

5) Since this is all automated, I don’t break ties. I simply award all ties a share of either the division title or wild card when it happens which is why you may see some funny decimal places in the standings that follow.

6) While the Diamond Mind engine is pretty good at giving us some variance in player and team performances over multiple simulations, it’s not quite good enough to model reality. Diamond Mind’s standard deviation for team wins is generally in the six to seven win range, but given the possible variations in playing time and in player performance, a better standard deviation is probably closer to the 10 to 13 win range. So I’ve taken the results from each set of projections (which I ran 1,000 times) and then run them through a Monte Carlo simulator 100,000 times. It won’t change the average win totals much, but it will give us a slightly higher standard deviation on team wins which will give us slightly different division and wild card percentages which should be more realistic.

7) These are the averages of hundreds of thousands of simulated seasons, so the results will tend to regress towards the mean. The final standings will not look like this, because they only play the season once. The idea behind is not necessarily to tell us how the final standings will look. Think of it more as a starting point for discussion. You can look at these and think about why you think teams will be better or worse.

OK, so now that the disclaimers are out of the way, onto the projected standings. I am showing W-L to one decimal place to deal with displayed rounding issues and so I don’t get people asking me why the wins and losses don’t add up to exactly 2430, not to imply that these results are that precise.

There’s too much crap to fit it all into one post, so I’ve created a separate post for each projection system I will use this post to show the results of the aggregate for the American League. You can follow the links below to look at the National League’s aggregate results and the individual projection systems’ results.

This year, I’m using five different projection systems. You can click on each of the links below to get some more information about each system and to see how their projected standings look.

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - National League Edition

Bill James
CAIRO
Marcel
Oliver
PECOTA

In the past I included CHONE and ZiPS. Unfortunately, CHONE is not available this season and the ZiPS disk came out too late for me to use it.

American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Red Sox	94.4	67.6	817	687	42.1%	17.8%	59.8%	84-104	788-846	661-714	5.4	-1	-57
Yankees	92.4	69.6	812	707	32.8%	18.2%	51.0%	82-102	783-840	680-734	-2.6	-47	14
Rays	86.1	75.9	762	704	16.0%	13.4%	29.4%	76-96	734-789	678-731	-9.9	-40	55
Orioles	78.6	83.4	748	777	6.0%	6.5%	12.5%	69-89	720-775	749-805	12.6	135	-8
Blue Jays	73.9	88.1	686	751	3.1%	3.2%	6.3%	64-84	659-712	724-779	-11.1	-69	23
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Tigers	84.6	77.4	723	693	31.2%	6.4%	37.7%	75-95	696-750	667-719	3.6	-28	-50
Twins	84.4	77.6	767	733	30.7%	6.6%	37.3%	74-94	739-794	706-760	-9.6	-14	62
White Sox	82.8	79.2	723	721	25.6%	6.3%	31.9%	73-93	696-750	694-748	-5.2	-20	-24
Indians	74.3	87.7	720	779	8.8%	2.6%	11.4%	64-84	693-747	751-807	5.3	74	27
Royals	68.4	93.6	680	806	3.7%	1.2%	4.9%	58-78	654-706	777-834	1.4	4	-39
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	88.0	74.0	746	680	45.7%	5.9%	51.6%	78-98	719-774	654-707	-2.0	-41	-7
Athletics	84.6	77.4	681	646	31.3%	6.1%	37.4%	75-95	655-707	620-671	3.6	18	20
Angels	77.9	84.1	666	687	14.9%	3.6%	18.5%	68-88	640-691	661-713	-2.1	-15	-15
Mariners	73.6	88.4	639	711	8.1%	2.2%	10.3%	64-84	614-665	685-738	12.6	126	13

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W Std: Wins range within one standard deviation
RS Std: Runs scored within one standard deviation
RA Std: Runs allowed within one standard deviation
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

One thing I need to note, since it may not be obvious. Those standings are NOT saying the Tigers are going to win the AL Central with 84.6 wins. They are saying the Tigers projected to win the AL Central most frequently(31.2% of the time) and that they averaged 84.6 wins. Those are two separate things. In order to actually win the division, the AL Central winner had to win 90 games on average.

Here are the average wins for each place in the AL, plus the wild card.

Division	AL East
Place	# W
1	98
2	91
3	86
4	79
5	72
Division	AL Central
Place	# W
1	90
2	84
3	80
4	74
5	67
Division	AL West
Place	# W
1	91
2	84
3	78
4	71
AL Wild Card	92

Regular readers know that this whole exercise is an excuse to make fancy pie charts, so here’s how the AL division title percentages look for the aggregate in pie chart form.

I’ll run through the divisions and teams briefly:

AL East

Boston Red Sox
Average Projected Wins: 94
Division Title Percentage: 42.1%
Wild Card Percentage: 17.8%
Playoff Percentage: 59.8%

Boston projects as the best team in baseball, but they don’t project to be some 110 win juggernaut. They obviously added a couple of nice pieces in Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, but they lost two very important players from last year’s team in Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez. The bulk of Boston’s projected improvement is based on the assumptions of better health from some of their key players who missed significant time last year, and on some bounce back years from some of their pitchers who struggled.

Why they might be better than projected: There’s little doubt that Adrian Gonzalez has moved from a park that suppresses offense significantly to one that boosts offense. You never know exactly how an individual player’s performance will be affected by moving to a new park, so there’s a chance that his projections may not fully capture how much he’ll benefit. So if Gonzalez is able to take more advantage of Fenway than expected, he may exceed his projections
In addition to that, while most of the projections expect some bounce back from Josh Beckett, John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka, any one of them or all of them might be able to outperform their projections.
They may also get better than expected performance out of shortstop if Jed Lowrie can stay healthy and take away some of Marco Scutaro’s time.

Why they might be worse than projected: You shouldn’t read too much into spring training performance, but Beckett has looked pretty shaky. If he’s not healthy or he’s lost some zip even a modest bounce back may be asking too much. Kevin Youkilis hasn’t played a lot of 3B over the past two years, and there’s a chance his defense there might be lacking, although he’s got good numbers at 3B in his career. They may also have trouble with lefties in the late innings with their bullpen if Dennys Reyes and/or Hideki Okajima are ineffective, although Daniel Bard, Bobby Jenks and Jonathan Papelbon have generally been pretty effective against them. Their lineup may be a bit more susceptible to LHP.

New York Yankees
Average Projected Wins: 92
Division Title Percentage: 32.8%
Wild Card Percentage: 18.2%
Playoff Percentage: 51.0%

The Yankees are probably not as good as Boston, although with the error bars in any projection a gap of two wins is effectively not much of a gap. At least one NL team’s scouts seem to think the Yankees are better.

Why they might be better than projected: I’ve assumed that Jesus Montero will only get about 200 PA, but if he’s able to exceed that and play passable defense the Yankees can probably get a few more runs out of him than they would out of Russell Martin and/or Francisco Cervelli.

It’s not likely, but I don’t think anyone would be shocked to see Alex Rodriguez put up an MVP-caliber season, which is not something he’s projected to do. He’s tearing the cover off the ball in spring training, although that’s not necessarily predictive.

The Yankees’ rotation has a lot of uncertainty in it, but but if A.J. Burnett can pitch closer to how he did in 2009 and they get serviceable pitching out of Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia they’ll be in in pretty good shape. They’ve also got some intriguing arms that are long on potential in AA and AAA that may end up helping them out as the season proceeds.

Why they might be worse than projected: Derek Jeter may set the all-time record for grounding into double plays. The lineup looks strong, but they’re not particularly young and there’s a chance they’ll get worse than expected performances/missed time from some of their key players and they don’t have a ton of depth behind the starters. Jorge Posada’s bat would probably still play well at catcher, but it’s uncertain how well it’ll play as a DH. The uncertainty that may help the Yankee rotation out-perform their projections could also cause it to crash and burn.

Tampa Bay Rays
Average Projected Wins: 86
Division Title Percentage: 16.0%
Wild Card Percentage: 13.4%
Playoff Percentage: 29.4%

The Rays have won the AL East in two of the past three seasons. Despite that, the “experts” aren’t expecting a lot out of Tampa Bay since they lost their entire bullpen and Carl Crawford. Of course, those experts should probably take a look at how they built that bullpen in the first place. Most were traded for at a minimal cost or signed relatively cheaply and there’s no reason to think they can’t cobble a similarly good pen together in 2011.
Why they might be better than projected: They’ve got youth on their side with a lot of their key players. They also have a lot of flexibility with players who can play several positions and hit well, which should help mitigate any injuries or poor performances. It’s looking less likely that B.J. Upton’s going to turn into a superstar, but you never know.

Why they might be worse than projected: Some of their younger players like Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson may have some growing pains, and some of their hopes for contending are contingent on Ben Zobrist hitting a bit better than he did in 2010 coming off a back injury.

Baltimore Orioles
Average Projected Wins: 79
Division Title Percentage: 6.0%
Wild Card Percentage: 6.5%
Playoff Percentage: 12.5%

The Orioles may have improved more than any other team in baseball, at least if you compare their projections to their 2010 performance. Their lineup looks pretty good, and Brian Matusz looks like he’s on his way to becoming one of the best young pitchers in baseball. The Orioles played very well after Buck Showalter took over, although that in and of itself is not necessarily predictive.

Why they might be better than projected: They could see better than expected performances out of Matt Wieters, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis, all of who have been somewhat disappointing relative to expectations so far. If they can get good performances out of some of their non-Matusz young starters like Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergesen and Chris Tilman and can get a reasonable number of starts out of Justin Duchscherer their pitching could surprise.

Why they might be worse than projected: Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee have seen their best days, but still project decently, so if they underperform a bit that could hurt. There’s a non-zero chance they get nothing out of Duchscherer and some of their young starters struggle.

Toronto Blue Jays
Average Projected Wins: 74
Division Title Percentage: 3.1%
Wild Card Percentage: 3.2%
Playoff Percentage: 6.3%

The Jays projections seem low to me, although I guess that’s largely a function of playing in a tough division.

Why they might be better than projected: Jose Bautista is probably a completely different player than he was in 2008 and the first five months of 2009, but the projections don’t know that. If he’s closer to 2010 Bautista than he’s projected to be that will make the offense better. The subpar performances of Adam Lind, Travis Snyder and Aaron Hill in 2010 may be hurting their projections as well. They’ve got some interesting young arms in the rotation who could also be better than expected.

Why they might be worse than projected: The offense doesn’t look great, particularly if Edwin Encarnacion is the primary DH and Juan Rivera is the primary LF. The defense may be a bit less than great with Jose Bautista at 3B and Adam Lind at 1B.

AL Central
Detroit Tigers
Average Projected Wins: 85
Division Title Percentage: 31.2%
Wild Card Percentage: 6.4%
Playoff Percentage: 37.7%

A busy offseason has vaulted Detroit to the top of the projected AL Central. They’ve probably got the best pitcher in their division in Justin Verlander and one of the top hitters in baseball with Miguel Cabrera.

Why they might be better than projected: The Tigers are heavily right-handed which is a benefit in Comerica park. Rick Porcello’s raw numbers looked worse in 2010 than they were in 2009, but his FIP was actually about 0.40 runs better, so he may pitch better than a projection that doesn’t account for that would think.

Why they might be worse than projected: There’s not a lot of depth here. An injury to one of their front-line players like Cabrera or Verlander or Victor Martinez would be tough to overcome. They have some good defenders but their overall defense doesn’t look all that great. They’re counting on Phil Coke making the transition to the rotation and that’s a risk in terms of both performance and innings.

Minnesota Twins
Average Projected Wins: 84
Division Title Percentage: 30.7%
Wild Card Percentage: 6.6%
Playoff Percentage: 37.3%

The Twins return essentially the same team that won the AL Central in 2010, minus J.J. Hardy but plus Joe Nathan.

Why they might be better than projected: Francisco Liriano had a very good year in 2010 and if you look at his peripherals it looks even better. However, his projections include a less than great 2009. If the reason for that 2009 was due to limitations as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery then his projections probably underrate him. Getting a full season out of Justin Morneau may also help, as I’ve assumed he’ll only play about 75% of the games due to his concussion issues.

Why they might be worse than projected: Their outfield defense isn’t very good, particularly Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer. While most projections try to account for defense when projecting pitching, they may not be penalzing the Twins enough. Morneau may miss a non-trivial amount of time, which would also obviously hurt. They’ve got Alexi Casilla penciled in as the starting SS, but he’s only played 233 innings there in his career so he may not be up for the task. They’re also counting on Tsuyohsi Nishioka at 2B, and it’s tough to know exactly how his game will translate from Japan.

Chicago White Sox
Average Projected Wins: 83
Division Title Percentage: 25.6%
Wild Card Percentage: 6.3%
Playoff Percentage: 31.9%

The White Sox added Adam Dunn, who should be a huge upgrade over what they got out of DH last year. They’ll also have a full season of Edwin Jackson.

Why they might be better than projected: The biggest reason I can think of is Edwin Jackson. He was a completely different pitcher for the White Sox that he’s been at any point in his career, although it was only 11 starts. His BB/9 was 2.16 compared to 3.86 career, and his K/9 rate jumped to 9.24 compared to 6.68. If that was due to Don Cooper’s coaching and not just a nice little run that was due more to luck than skill he could be a lot more valuable than expected. It’ll be interesting to see how Gordon Beckham does this year, as he fell off significantly from his 2009.

Why they might be worse than projected: The White Sox have generally been one of the healthiest teams in baseball, but Jake Peavy is a major injury risk based on his past history and the drop-off after him is pretty steep. They’ve got Brent Morel slated as the starting 3B. His defensive reputation is quite good, but his bat’s still an uncertain proposition.

Cleveland Indians
Average Projected Wins: 74
Division Title Percentage: 8.8%
Wild Card Percentage: 2.6%
Playoff Percentage: 11.4%

The Indians are probably the youngest team in baseball. They return most of a team that was pretty bad in 2010.

Why they might be better than projected: Grady Sizemore’s trying to make his way back from injury. Prior to that he was one of the best players in baseball and if he’s able to recapture most of that and play regularly it’ll help. Their rotation is young and that may help them pitch better than projected.

Why they might be worse than projected: Aside from Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana (and a healthy Sizemore), their position players aren’t particularly great. It’s tough to see them scoring a lot of runs as presently constituted, and their defense last year was pretty lousy. A repeat of that could make their run prevention worse than projected.

Kansas City Royals
Average Projected Wins: 68
Division Title Percentage: 3.7%
Wild Card Percentage: 1.2%
Playoff Percentage: 4.9%

With Zach Greinke now in Milwaukee, it’s looking like another painful year for the Royals in 2011, but their future looks a lot brighter.

Why they might be better than projected: The Royals might have the best farm system in baseball and some of those prospects may start contributing this year.

Why they might be worse than projected: The Royals are probably not even going to sniff contention, so it may make sense to make moves with the future in mind that could hurt them in the short-term. The package they got back for Greinke doesn’t look all that great, and right now it looks like they are going to have Jeff Francoeur hitting in the middle of the lineup, something that Braves and Mets fans probably get hives about.

AL West
Texas Rangers
Average Projected Wins: 88
Division Title Percentage: 45.7%
Wild Card Percentage: 31.3%
Playoff Percentage: 51.6%

2010’s AL Champions look like the class of the AL West.

Why they might be better than projected: I’ve seen it expressed in more than one place that the Rangers need to replace Cliff Lee and that losing him is going to hurt, but is losing 109 innings of 3.98 ERA that big of a deal?
The defensive upgrade from Michael Young to Adrian Beltre at 3B is huge on paper, but projections may understate it. Derek Holland has the stuff to be better than projected and that would slot in nicely behind C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis. I’ve restricted Brandon Webb to about 10 starts, so if he can make more than that and pitch as projected they’ll benefit.

Why they might be worse than projected: 2010 was Wilson’s first full season as a starter in the majors, so I suppose there’s some risk that he breaks down at some point. Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler have both shown problems with staying healthy at times and losing either of them for a significant amount of time (particularly Hamilton) would be a big blow. They may get nothing out of Webb.

Oakland Athletics
Average Projected Wins: 85
Division Title Percentage: 31.3%
Wild Card Percentage: 6.1%
Playoff Percentage: 37.4%

Despite scoring 37 runs more than they allowed, the A’s finshed 2010 at 81-81. The projections expect them to be less unlucky in 2011 and pick up those 3-4 missing wins.

Why they might be better than projected: They should be a pretty good defensive team, which may not be fully captured in their pitching projections.

Why they might be worse than projected: They’ve got some health concerns in their pitching staff, and their offense isn’t great. A lot of their pitchers had ERAs well below their FIPs/xFIPs and may regress more than projected, although some of that difference is probably due to park.

LA Angels
Average Projected Wins: 78
Division Title Percentage: 14.9%
Wild Card Percentage: 3.6%
Playoff Percentage: 18.5%

A bad offseason following their first losing season since 2003 has the Angels projected behind Texas and Oakland. However, they’ll have a full season of Dan Haren and the return of Kendrys Morales as upgrades.

Why they might be better than projected: An outfield of Vernon Wells in LF, Peter Bourjos in CF and Torii Hunter in RF could be the best defensive OF in baseball. That could be particularly beneficial to Jered Weaver who is a fly ball pitcher. At this point it looks like Scott Kazmir the budding ace has morphed into Scott Kazmir the replacement level pitcher, but he’s still young and might be able to recapture some of his former glory.

Why they might be worse than projected: Their catching situation stinks, and they don’t have much depth behind their starters. Fernando Rodney as closer seems like a good way to lose some close games late.

Seattle Mariners
Average Projected Wins: 74
Division Title Percentage: 8.1%
Wild Card Percentage: 2.2%
Playoff Percentage: 10.3%

Picked by many to be in contention in the AL West in 2010, the Mariners instead lost 101 games. They scored an abysmal 513 runs and actually over-performed their pythagorean W-L by four games. Of course, they weren’t really that bad, they just had a lot of things go wrong which means they should be better in 2011 just by dumb luck, although they still don’t look like a contender.

Why they might be better than projected: Erik Bedard looks healthy, but I’ve assumed he’ll only pitch about 15 games. If they can get a full season out of him they’ll be a bit better.

Why they might be worse than projected: Their offense still looks pretty lousy, and if they’ve decided they can’t contend they may try and flip some of their players for prospects.

For the NL edition, click here.

And there you have it, the 2011 Diamond Mind projection blowout. Results are not guaranteed.

--Posted at 6:59 am by SG / 55 Comments | - (0)

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Oliver Edition

Available from the THT Forecasts at The Hardball Times, Oliver is another projection system with Marcel at its heart, although it uses MLEs to try and better project minor leaguers and it also projects defense. They also run their own projected standings, which are available here. Like with PECOTA, these projected standings will differ from the official Oliver forecasts at THT, primarily due to differences in playing time estimates. Here’s how my version of Oliver projected standings look.

American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Red Sox	95.4	66.6	813	672	46.5%	18.3%	64.8%	85-105	784-841	646-697	6.4	-5	-72
Yankees	93.5	68.5	801	682	36.6%	19.1%	55.7%	83-103	773-829	656-708	-1.5	-58	-11
Rays	83.2	78.8	787	759	10.7%	10.6%	21.3%	73-93	759-815	732-787	-12.8	-15	110
Orioles	75.8	86.2	744	796	4.0%	4.9%	8.9%	66-86	717-772	768-825	9.8	131	11
Blue Jays	72.5	89.5	679	763	2.2%	2.6%	4.7%	63-83	653-705	736-791	-12.5	-76	35
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Twins	86.0	76.0	803	754	32.7%	8.2%	40.8%	76-96	775-832	727-781	-8.0	22	83
Tigers	85.9	76.1	723	676	33.0%	7.3%	40.2%	76-96	696-750	650-702	4.9	-28	-67
White Sox	82.9	79.1	725	724	24.5%	6.8%	31.3%	73-93	698-752	697-751	-5.1	-18	-21
Indians	74.3	87.7	746	808	7.2%	2.5%	9.7%	64-84	719-773	779-836	5.3	100	56
Royals	67.4	94.6	693	831	2.6%	1.0%	3.5%	57-77	667-719	802-860	0.4	17	-14
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	89.5	72.5	741	664	48.9%	6.0%	54.9%	80-100	714-769	638-690	-0.5	-46	-23
Athletics	84.9	77.1	713	668	28.5%	6.6%	35.1%	75-95	686-740	642-694	3.9	50	42
Mariners	76.9	85.1	683	728	11.4%	3.3%	14.7%	67-87	657-709	701-755	15.9	170	30
Angels	76.6	85.4	675	705	11.2%	3.0%	14.3%	67-87	649-701	679-732	-3.4	-6	3
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Phillies	90.4	71.6	729	646	36.3%	11.0%	47.4%	80-100	702-756	620-671	-6.6	-43	6
Braves	88.9	73.1	761	681	32.9%	11.0%	43.9%	79-99	734-789	655-707	-2.1	23	52
Marlins	82.3	79.7	722	705	14.5%	7.1%	21.6%	72-92	695-749	678-731	2.3	3	-12
Mets	81.8	80.2	750	748	13.0%	6.2%	19.2%	72-92	723-777	721-776	2.8	94	96
Nationals	71.3	90.7	688	778	3.3%	1.7%	5.0%	61-81	662-714	750-805	2.3	33	36
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Reds	90.2	71.8	721	642	45.5%	8.9%	54.4%	80-100	694-748	617-668	-0.8	-69	-43
Cardinals	83.1	78.9	764	744	22.0%	9.1%	31.1%	73-93	736-791	717-771	-2.9	28	103
Brewers	82.4	79.6	720	704	17.7%	7.2%	24.9%	72-92	693-746	678-731	5.4	-30	-100
Cubs	78.2	83.8	680	701	10.8%	4.9%	15.8%	68-88	654-707	675-728	3.2	-5	-66
Pirates	67.8	94.2	687	815	2.7%	1.3%	3.9%	58-78	661-714	786-843	10.8	100	-51
Astros	63.8	98.2	576	728	1.3%	0.6%	1.9%	54-74	552-600	701-755	-12.2	-35	-1
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Giants	91.2	70.8	704	617	45.2%	9.0%	54.2%	81-101	678-731	592-642	-0.8	7	34
Rockies	84.3	77.7	727	695	22.1%	8.4%	30.5%	74-94	700-754	668-721	1.3	-43	-22
Dodgers	84.2	77.8	689	660	22.9%	9.0%	31.9%	74-94	663-716	634-686	4.2	22	-32
Padres	73.5	88.5	688	765	5.6%	2.6%	8.1%	63-83	662-714	738-793	-16.5	23	184
Diamondbacks	72.0	90.0	650	726	4.2%	2.1%	6.3%	62-82	625-676	699-753	7.0	-63	-110

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

--Posted at 6:55 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - PECOTA Edition

Originally developed by Nate Silver, who’s moved on to bigger things, PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus has in the past been considered one the best projection systems. Since Silver left they have had a few issues, but it’s now in the hands of Colin Wyers who is one of the best baseball analysts around, so I’d expect it to be pretty good again. Baseball Prospectus runs their own projected standings, so these should NOT be considered what PECOTA is projecting. It’s more what PECOTA is projecting using my depth charts for all the other projections. The difference shouldn’t be more than 1-2 games in either direction for the most part.

Here’s how this version of the projected standings shape up.

American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Red Sox	94.1	67.9	809	681	41.1%	17.7%	58.8%	84-104	781-837	655-707	5.1	-9	-63
Yankees	92.1	69.9	835	730	31.0%	18.1%	49.0%	82-102	806-864	703-757	-2.9	-24	37
Rays	87.0	75.0	765	700	17.5%	15.0%	32.5%	77-97	737-792	674-727	-9.0	-37	51
Orioles	80.0	82.0	752	767	7.2%	7.7%	14.9%	70-90	725-780	740-795	14.0	139	-18
Blue Jays	75.4	86.6	690	742	3.2%	4.2%	7.4%	65-85	664-716	715-769	-9.6	-65	14
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Tigers	83.4	78.6	720	700	29.0%	6.0%	34.9%	73-93	693-747	673-726	2.4	-31	-43
Twins	83.2	78.8	764	748	26.3%	5.7%	32.0%	73-93	736-791	721-776	-10.8	-17	77
White Sox	83.1	78.9	746	745	27.9%	6.2%	34.1%	73-93	719-773	718-772	-4.9	3	0
Indians	76.4	85.6	734	769	12.3%	3.7%	15.9%	66-86	707-761	741-797	7.4	88	17
Royals	69.7	92.3	705	816	4.5%	1.3%	5.8%	60-80	678-732	787-844	2.7	29	-29
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	85.8	76.2	740	693	41.7%	4.8%	46.5%	76-96	713-767	666-719	-4.2	-47	6
Athletics	83.0	79.0	664	646	31.1%	4.9%	35.9%	73-93	638-689	620-671	2.0	1	20
Angels	78.5	83.5	636	651	18.4%	3.3%	21.7%	69-89	611-662	625-676	-1.5	-45	-51
Mariners	72.7	89.3	622	704	8.8%	1.6%	10.4%	63-83	597-647	677-730	11.7	109	6
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Phillies	91.0	71.0	731	638	42.4%	10.6%	53.0%	81-101	704-758	612-663	-6.0	-41	-2
Braves	87.0	75.0	716	658	29.5%	11.1%	40.6%	77-97	690-743	633-684	-4.0	-22	29
Marlins	81.2	80.8	692	684	14.8%	7.0%	21.8%	71-91	665-718	658-710	1.2	-27	-33
Mets	78.8	83.2	717	744	10.1%	5.3%	15.4%	69-89	690-744	717-771	-0.2	61	92
Nationals	70.0	92.0	661	760	3.1%	1.6%	4.7%	60-80	635-687	732-787	1.0	6	18
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Cardinals	84.2	77.8	738	707	30.0%	7.1%	37.1%	74-94	711-765	680-734	-1.8	2	66
Brewers	82.6	79.4	723	707	22.0%	6.5%	28.5%	73-93	696-750	680-734	5.6	-27	-97
Cubs	81.3	80.7	729	723	20.5%	5.6%	26.2%	71-91	702-756	696-750	6.3	44	-44
Reds	81.3	80.7	718	715	20.2%	6.2%	26.4%	71-91	692-745	688-742	-9.7	-72	30
Pirates	70.2	91.8	677	780	4.4%	1.7%	6.1%	60-80	651-703	752-807	13.2	90	-86
Astros	67.0	95.0	569	692	2.9%	1.0%	3.9%	57-77	545-593	666-719	-9.0	-42	-37
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Giants	89.5	72.5	692	620	38.4%	10.3%	48.8%	80-100	666-719	595-645	-2.5	-5	37
Dodgers	84.9	77.1	670	642	25.0%	8.8%	33.8%	75-95	644-696	617-667	4.9	3	-50
Rockies	82.4	79.6	792	774	17.5%	7.9%	25.5%	72-92	764-820	746-801	-0.6	22	57
Padres	79.9	82.1	649	671	12.6%	6.1%	18.7%	70-90	624-675	645-697	-10.1	-16	90
Diamondbacks	74.5	87.5	665	717	6.4%	3.2%	9.6%	65-85	639-691	690-744	9.5	-48	-119

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

--Posted at 6:50 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Marcel Edition

Marcel was developed by Tangotiger of The Book fame.

As an aside, Tango is running a community playing time forecast if you want to help him out.

Back to Marcel, although it’s considered the most basic projection system, it is generally as good as any other system since added complexity really hasn’t shown to add all that much accuracy over Marcel, and the principles behind it are solid and should be the basis for any good forecasting system. Here’s how it sees things looking in 2011.

American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Red Sox	91.6	70.4	841	734	40.0%	14.4%	54.4%	82-102	812-870	707-762	2.6	23	-10
Yankees	89.0	73.0	785	711	28.5%	14.1%	42.5%	79-99	757-813	685-738	-6.0	-74	18
Rays	85.3	76.7	747	699	19.2%	11.5%	30.7%	75-95	720-775	673-726	-10.7	-55	50
Orioles	78.8	83.2	754	780	8.7%	6.2%	14.9%	69-89	726-781	752-808	12.8	141	-5
Blue Jays	72.4	89.6	691	768	3.7%	2.6%	6.3%	62-82	665-717	740-796	-12.6	-64	40
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Twins	85.7	76.3	757	709	34.3%	7.2%	41.5%	76-96	729-784	682-736	-8.3	-24	38
White Sox	83.5	78.5	714	701	26.3%	7.2%	33.5%	73-93	687-740	674-727	-4.5	-29	-44
Tigers	83.3	78.7	717	696	26.3%	7.6%	33.9%	73-93	690-744	669-722	2.3	-34	-47
Indians	75.1	86.9	693	747	9.8%	3.0%	12.9%	65-85	667-720	720-775	6.1	47	-5
Royals	68.4	93.6	659	783	3.3%	1.2%	4.5%	58-78	633-685	755-811	1.4	-17	-62
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	88.7	73.3	781	710	42.9%	8.2%	51.2%	79-99	753-809	684-737	-1.3	-6	23
Athletics	85.6	76.4	679	644	30.2%	7.8%	38.0%	76-96	653-705	618-669	4.6	16	18
Angels	79.9	82.1	697	703	16.0%	5.6%	21.6%	70-90	670-723	676-729	-0.1	16	1
Mariners	76.7	85.3	634	673	10.8%	3.5%	14.3%	67-87	609-659	647-699	15.7	121	-25
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Phillies	87.7	74.3	715	654	34.9%	9.4%	44.3%	78-98	689-742	628-679	-9.3	-57	14
Braves	85.2	76.9	695	654	27.3%	9.0%	36.3%	75-95	668-721	628-679	-5.8	-43	25
Marlins	81.6	80.4	694	685	17.2%	7.0%	24.2%	72-92	667-720	659-711	1.6	-25	-32
Mets	79.9	82.1	670	679	13.9%	5.6%	19.5%	70-90	644-696	653-705	0.9	14	27
Nationals	73.8	88.2	655	719	6.7%	3.1%	9.8%	64-84	629-680	692-746	4.8	0	-23
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Reds	83.7	78.3	740	712	27.6%	8.0%	35.6%	74-94	713-767	686-739	-7.3	-50	27
Cardinals	82.3	79.7	732	724	24.5%	7.5%	32.0%	72-92	705-759	698-751	-3.7	-4	83
Cubs	80.5	81.5	718	721	18.7%	6.3%	25.0%	71-91	691-744	694-747	5.5	33	-46
Brewers	79.3	82.7	710	728	15.1%	5.3%	20.4%	69-89	683-736	701-755	2.3	-40	-76
Pirates	74.5	87.5	679	736	10.0%	3.3%	13.4%	64-84	653-705	709-763	17.5	92	-130
Astros	69.6	92.4	609	715	4.1%	1.6%	5.8%	60-80	585-634	688-742	-6.4	-2	-14
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Dodgers	85.3	76.7	657	624	28.4%	8.8%	37.2%	75-95	631-682	599-649	5.3	-10	-68
Giants	84.3	77.7	647	620	24.8%	7.9%	32.7%	74-94	622-673	595-645	-7.7	-50	37
Rockies	83.3	78.7	764	741	23.5%	7.3%	30.7%	73-93	736-792	713-768	0.3	-6	24
Padres	79.8	82.2	616	633	14.6%	6.4%	21.0%	70-90	592-641	608-658	-10.2	-49	52
Diamondbacks	75.4	86.6	686	732	8.8%	3.5%	12.3%	65-85	660-712	705-759	10.4	-27	-104

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

--Posted at 6:46 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CAIRO Edition

CAIRO is my own in-house projection system, which is based on Marcel with the following changes.

1) I use the prior four years of data, whereas Marcel uses only the prior three years.
2) I make adjustments for park, which Marcel does not do.
3) I use major league equivalencies for players who’ve played in the minors, which Marcel does not do.
4) I account for the defense behind a pitcher in their prior seasons as well as in projecting them for the next season, which Marcel does not do.
5) Marcel regresses everyone towards league average, I also regress towards different additional means based on player age and primary position.

You can download the latest version of the 2011 CAIRO projections at this link.

Here’s how CAIRO projects the 2011 MLB standings.

American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Red Sox	95.8	66.2	826	684	42.8%	18.7%	61.5%	86-106	798-855	658-710	6.8	8	-60
Yankees	93.1	68.9	821	713	31.7%	19.4%	51.1%	83-103	792-849	686-739	-1.9	-38	20
Rays	87.6	74.4	734	660	17.8%	14.9%	32.7%	78-98	707-761	634-686	-8.4	-68	11
Orioles	77.2	84.8	746	790	4.3%	5.3%	9.5%	67-87	718-773	762-818	11.2	133	5
Blue Jays	75.8	86.2	689	737	3.5%	3.9%	7.4%	66-86	663-716	710-764	-9.2	-66	9
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Tigers	84.3	77.7	713	696	34.4%	5.7%	40.1%	74-94	686-739	670-723	3.3	-38	-47
White Sox	83.1	78.9	718	712	30.7%	5.5%	36.3%	73-93	691-745	686-739	-4.9	-25	-33
Twins	81.7	80.3	747	732	25.2%	5.3%	30.5%	72-92	720-775	705-759	-12.3	-34	61
Indians	71.4	90.6	707	788	6.4%	1.7%	8.1%	61-81	681-734	760-817	2.4	61	36
Royals	66.6	95.4	661	803	3.3%	0.7%	4.0%	57-77	636-687	774-831	-0.4	-15	-42
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	89.3	72.7	730	652	48.1%	6.7%	54.9%	79-99	703-757	626-677	-0.7	-57	-35
Athletics	85.5	76.5	669	626	32.1%	6.3%	38.4%	76-96	643-695	601-651	4.5	6	0
Angels	77.7	84.3	659	686	14.1%	3.9%	18.0%	68-88	633-685	659-712	-2.3	-22	-16
Mariners	72.1	89.9	619	703	5.6%	1.9%	7.6%	62-82	594-644	676-729	11.1	106	5
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Phillies	92.8	69.2	742	630	45.0%	10.6%	55.6%	83-103	714-769	605-655	-4.2	-30	-10
Braves	86.6	75.4	736	674	25.6%	10.7%	36.3%	77-97	709-763	648-700	-4.4	-2	45
Marlins	82.8	79.2	677	655	15.3%	7.7%	22.9%	73-93	651-703	630-681	2.8	-42	-62
Mets	79.0	83.0	662	681	8.9%	5.1%	14.0%	69-89	637-688	655-707	0.0	6	29
Nationals	74.1	87.9	653	714	5.2%	2.8%	8.0%	64-84	627-679	687-740	5.1	-2	-28
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Reds	86.9	75.1	749	697	31.1%	10.2%	41.3%	77-97	721-776	670-723	-4.1	-41	12
Brewers	86.0	76.0	754	702	26.3%	9.0%	35.3%	76-96	727-782	675-728	9.0	4	-102
Cardinals	85.3	76.7	748	712	28.4%	9.1%	37.5%	75-95	721-775	685-738	-0.7	12	71
Cubs	78.4	83.6	733	755	10.7%	5.2%	15.9%	68-88	706-760	728-783	3.4	48	-12
Pirates	66.7	95.3	673	805	2.1%	1.1%	3.2%	57-77	647-699	777-834	9.7	86	-61
Astros	65.3	96.7	598	749	1.4%	0.9%	2.3%	55-75	573-622	721-776	-10.7	-13	20
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Giants	87.2	74.9	704	652	35.7%	7.2%	42.9%	77-97	678-731	627-678	-4.8	7	69
Rockies	83.1	78.9	769	749	22.3%	6.6%	29.0%	73-93	742-797	721-776	0.1	-1	32
Padres	81.1	80.9	651	652	18.4%	5.8%	24.2%	71-91	626-677	626-677	-8.9	-14	71
Dodgers	80.9	81.1	676	679	17.8%	6.0%	23.8%	71-91	650-702	653-705	0.9	9	-13
Diamondbacks	72.4	89.6	695	773	5.8%	2.0%	7.8%	62-82	669-721	745-801	7.4	-18	-63

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

--Posted at 6:35 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)

Thursday, February 10, 2011

CAIRO v0.6 and Still Too Early 2011 MLB Projected Standings

I’ve updated the 2011 CAIRO projections to version 0.6 and have uploaded them to the site. They can be downloaded at the link below:

Cairo_2011_v0.6.zip

I’ve basically just updated rosters again and fixed a few issues. I’ve also added a projected standings page.

I probably will not do another update until about a week before the season starts, unless there’s some reason to.

Speaking of projected standings, it’s been about six weeks since I posted my extremely early projected standings for 2011 so here’s an update.

I suppose this is where I should tell you that it’s still too early to treat these as gospel and we still have position battles and rosters to finalize, as well as playing time allocation and injuries to deal with, but that doesn’t seem to prevent some people from taking them seriously and insulting my mother anyway, so I won’t.

I used the depth charts from MLB Depth Charts.com as of February 8, but I also included some playing time from the benches as well as some of the pitchers who aren’t necessarily expected to make their teams out of spring training but who will likely be needed at some point.

Date	2/8/2011
Iterations	10,000
American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Red Sox	96.2	65.8	831	687	45.6%	17.6%	63.2%	7.2	13	-57
Yankees	92.1	69.9	821	726	28.8%	19.4%	48.2%	-2.9	-38	33
Rays	87.9	74.1	737	663	17.3%	14.6%	31.9%	-8.1	-65	14
Blue Jays	77.2	84.8	709	738	4.2%	5.0%	9.2%	-7.8	-46	10
Orioles	76.9	85.1	739	788	4.2%	4.8%	9.0%	10.9	126	3
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
White Sox	84.3	77.7	718	704	36.1%	5.7%	41.8%	-3.7	-25	-41
Twins	82.3	79.7	744	727	26.9%	5.0%	31.9%	-11.7	-37	56
Tigers	81.9	80.1	714	697	27.7%	5.5%	33.2%	0.9	-37	-46
Indians	70.6	91.4	711	804	6.2%	1.4%	7.6%	1.6	65	52
Royals	66.2	95.8	658	806	3.1%	0.7%	3.8%	-0.8	-18	-39
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	92.7	69.3	728	626	57.6%	6.6%	64.2%	2.7	-59	-61
Athletics	85.8	76.2	667	620	28.9%	8.8%	37.7%	4.8	4	-6
Angels	77.1	84.9	647	678	10.1%	3.6%	13.7%	-2.9	-34	-24
Mariners	70.4	91.6	606	705	3.4%	1.3%	4.7%	9.4	93	7
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Phillies	93.7	68.3	735	617	48.4%	10.4%	58.8%	-3.3	-37	-23
Braves	87.2	74.8	735	665	26.1%	10.3%	36.4%	-3.8	-3	36
Mets	80.1	81.9	667	678	10.3%	6.0%	16.3%	1.1	11	26
Marlins	79.3	82.7	668	679	9.5%	5.3%	14.8%	-0.7	-51	-38
Nationals	74.9	87.1	643	698	5.7%	3.3%	9.0%	5.9	-12	-44
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Reds	87.2	74.8	746	689	31.8%	10.0%	41.8%	-3.8	-44	4
Cardinals	86.6	75.4	744	689	31.0%	9.9%	40.9%	0.6	8	48
Brewers	86.6	75.4	746	688	26.5%	9.4%	35.9%	9.6	-4	-116
Cubs	75.8	86.2	722	768	7.3%	3.8%	11.1%	0.8	37	1
Astros	66.9	95.1	604	740	1.5%	1.0%	2.5%	-9.1	-7	11
Pirates	66.6	95.4	663	796	1.9%	1.1%	3.0%	9.6	76	-70
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Giants	86.9	75.1	698	649	32.1%	8.2%	40.2%	-5.1	1	66
Rockies	83.4	78.6	758	736	23.3%	7.0%	30.2%	0.4	-12	19
Padres	83.1	78.9	648	638	21.6%	6.5%	28.1%	-6.9	-17	57
Dodgers	82.2	79.8	673	665	19.7%	6.7%	26.4%	2.2	6	-27
Diamondbacks	69.5	92.5	672	775	3.3%	1.2%	4.5%	4.5	-41	-61

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here’s a comparison of this set of projections compared to the last ones:

TM	28-Dec	28-Dec	28-Dec	28-Dec	9-Feb	9-Feb	9-Feb	9-Feb	Diff	Diff	Diff	Diff
	W	Div	WC	PL	W	Div	WC	PL	W	Div	WC	PL
Angels	78	15.5%	3.2%	18.7%	77	10.1%	3.6%	13.7%	-1	-5.4%	0.4%	-5.0%
Astros	66	1.1%	1.0%	2.1%	67	1.5%	1.0%	2.5%	1	0.4%	0.0%	0.4%
Athletics	82	26.1%	4.3%	30.4%	86	28.9%	8.8%	37.7%	4	2.8%	4.5%	7.3%
Blue Jays	74	2.6%	5.8%	8.4%	77	4.2%	5.0%	9.2%	3	1.6%	-0.8%	0.8%
Braves	89	26.6%	13.3%	39.9%	87	26.1%	10.3%	36.4%	-1	-0.5%	-3.0%	-3.5%
Brewers	87	27.9%	8.9%	36.7%	87	26.5%	9.4%	35.9%	-1	-1.4%	0.5%	-0.8%
Cardinals	90	35.0%	12.0%	47.0%	87	31.0%	9.9%	40.9%	-4	-4.0%	-2.1%	-6.1%
Cubs	79	10.5%	6.3%	16.8%	76	7.3%	3.8%	11.1%	-4	-3.2%	-2.5%	-5.7%
Diamondbacks	74	6.4%	1.9%	8.3%	70	3.3%	1.2%	4.5%	-4	-3.1%	-0.7%	-3.8%
Dodgers	83	20.3%	7.2%	27.5%	82	19.7%	6.7%	26.4%	-1	-0.6%	-0.5%	-1.1%
Giants	84	24.1%	6.6%	30.6%	87	32.1%	8.2%	40.2%	3	8.0%	1.6%	9.6%
Indians	74	8.2%	2.7%	10.8%	71	6.2%	1.4%	7.6%	-3	-2.0%	-1.3%	-3.2%
Mariners	72	8.4%	2.5%	10.9%	70	3.4%	1.3%	4.7%	-2	-5.0%	-1.2%	-6.2%
Marlins	77	8.7%	5.0%	13.7%	79	9.5%	5.3%	14.8%	2	0.8%	0.3%	1.1%
Mets	77	7.1%	4.5%	11.6%	80	10.3%	6.0%	16.3%	4	3.2%	1.5%	4.7%
Nationals	72	3.2%	2.0%	5.2%	75	5.7%	3.3%	9.0%	3	2.5%	1.3%	3.8%
Orioles	70	1.8%	2.9%	4.7%	77	4.2%	4.8%	9.0%	7	2.4%	1.9%	4.3%
Padres	81	17.7%	5.0%	22.6%	83	21.6%	6.5%	28.1%	2	3.9%	1.5%	5.5%
Phillies	96	54.5%	11.0%	65.5%	94	48.4%	10.4%	58.8%	-2	-6.1%	-0.6%	-6.7%
Pirates	68	2.1%	1.2%	3.3%	67	1.9%	1.1%	3.0%	-1	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.3%
Rangers	89	50.1%	4.5%	54.6%	93	57.6%	6.6%	64.2%	4	7.5%	2.1%	9.6%
Rays	87	17.9%	18.7%	36.6%	88	17.3%	14.6%	31.9%	1	-0.6%	-4.1%	-4.7%
Red Sox	98	54.6%	15.6%	70.2%	96	45.6%	17.6%	63.2%	-2	-9.0%	2.0%	-7.0%
Reds	86	23.5%	8.2%	31.7%	87	31.8%	10.0%	41.8%	2	8.3%	1.8%	10.1%
Rockies	86	31.7%	5.9%	37.6%	83	23.3%	7.0%	30.2%	-3	-8.4%	1.1%	-7.4%
Royals	67	2.8%	1.1%	3.9%	66	3.1%	0.7%	3.8%	-1	0.3%	-0.4%	-0.1%
Tigers	84	27.5%	4.6%	32.0%	82	27.7%	5.5%	33.2%	-2	0.2%	0.9%	1.2%
Twins	86	33.3%	6.2%	39.5%	82	26.9%	5.0%	31.9%	-3	-6.4%	-1.2%	-7.6%
White Sox	85	28.4%	6.2%	34.5%	84	36.1%	5.7%	41.8%	0	7.7%	-0.5%	7.3%
Yankees	89	23.2%	21.7%	44.9%	92	28.8%	19.4%	48.2%	3	5.6%	-2.3%	3.3%

The Diff columns are just the December 28 results subtraced from the February 9 results. Positive means a team’s odds have improved, negative means they’ve decreased.

In the AL East, the Blue Jays, Orioles, Rays and Yankees all improved, with Baltimore making the biggest gains. The Red Sox still project as the best team in baseball, but the gap has shrunk a bit.

Aside from the Rafael Soriano signing, the Yankees haven’t made any major moves, but by adding Andruw Jones, Freddy Garcia and Ronnie Belliard they’ve improved their depth. Of course, it’s possible Belliard’s 2010 shows he’s at the end of the line and will not be very good, so if they are instead back to using Ramiro Pena and Eduardo Nunez more frequently that may hurt them some.

CAIRO still likes the White Sox in the Central, with the Twins and Tigers nipping on their heels.

The Rangers look like a strong favorite in the AL West, although if they trade Michael Young that may hurt their depth a bit. I only gave Brandon Webb about 10 starts, so how he does could have an impact on them.

Oakland hasn’t made any major moves, but they have improved by about four wins in this set of projections, mostly by shoring up their bullpen a bit. The Angels and Mariners don’t really look like contenders at this point.

In the National League, the Phillies still look like the best team. The Braves look like a solid second place team in the East, with the Mets, Marlins and Nationals a bit worse and separated by maybe five games in total. For the Mets I’ve assumed that Chris Young and Johan Santana will split the #1 spot in the rotation at 50% each, but I have no idea how likely that is.

The top of the NL Central has bunched up a bit, with the Reds now slight favorites, primarily due to adding Edgar Renteria and Fred Lewis. Really though, there’s a three-way tie at the top, with only 0.6 wins separating Cincinnati, Milwaukee and St. Louis. The Cubs appear to have a stranglehold on fourth place. I think there are two other teams in the Central as well.

The Giants still look to be on top of the NL West, with the Rockies, Padres and Dodgers a few games behind them but very close to each other. I don’t really have anything to say about the Diamondbacks, so insert your own commentary here if you wish.

Even though rosters are a bit more settled than they were six weeks ago, it’s still too early to read too much into these. So take them with the appropriate amount of skepticism.

--Posted at 7:15 am by SG / 43 Comments | - (0)

Monday, January 24, 2011

Updated Still Too Early 2011 AL East Standings Projection

With the Rays signing Johnny Damon/Manny Ramirez and the Jays trading Vernon Wells for Mike Napoli/Juan Rivera I was curious to see how it may AL East projected standings from this post may have changed, and here it is.

TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Red Sox	94.9	67.1	834	693	45.5%	16.3%	61.8%
Yankees	90.3	71.7	819	739	25.4%	17.4%	42.8%
Rays	88.1	73.9	736	663	19.8%	15.1%	34.9%
Blue Jays	77.9	84.1	721	738	5.6%	5.6%	11.2%
Orioles	75.5	86.5	732	796	3.8%	4.0%	7.8%

Things appear to be getting pretty tight. This is going to make Boston beating out the 1927 Yankees as “best team of evah” particularly noteworthy.

--Posted at 9:50 am by SG / 17 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Fourth Outfielder Roulette

Despite my less than enthusiastic response to the Yankees signing Rafael Soriano for too much money and for too many years, it has upgraded the team. When I last ran my CAIRO projected standings for 2011 I had the Yankees at around 89 wins, with about a 23.2% probability of winning the AL East and with a 21.7% of taking the wild card, which put them at around 44.9% for qualifying for the postseason.

I’ve run more projections since then but am not going to post the full set because you’d be amazed how many people ignored my recommendation that they were too early to be taken seriously and went ahead and took them seriously. However, I can say that the Yankees have moved up a bit and are now looking more like a 91 win team. Here are the revised projected standings for the AL East as of roster moves from yesterday.

Date	1/19/2011
Iterations	10000
American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Red Sox	95.8	66.2	836	684	46.2%	17.9%	64.1%
Yankees	91.4	70.6	819	728	30.2%	18.9%	49.1%
Rays	85.9	76.1	703	651	14.7%	11.9%	26.6%
Blue Jays	77.4	84.6	695	723	4.5%	4.9%	9.4%
Orioles	77.2	84.8	736	784	4.4%	4.9%	9.3%

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC: Percentage ot times team won wild card
PL: Percentage of times team qualified for the postseason (Div + WC)

The Yankees’ odds didn’t increase as much as my initial estimates of Soriano’s potential impact because Toronto and Baltimore have both made some moves that increased their projected win totals. In fact, they now sit in almost a dead heat for fourth place at 77 wins. That is the primary reason Boston’s gone from 98 projected to wins to about 96 now.

It’s looking like there’s a pretty good chance the Yankees will be adding Andruw Jones to the mix, although that’s still not certain. The Yankees do need to add someone as a fourth outfielder because right now their fourth outfielder would be one of Kevin Russo, Colin Curtis or Greg Golson, none of whom project to be any better than replacement level.

The names that have come up either here or other places are Jones, Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez and Scott Hairston. As far as which one would be the best fit, let’s see what the numbers say.

For now, the primary Yankee lineup is probably going to look something like this.

Overall
Player	Pos	PA	OBP	wOBA	Outs	BR	Def
Brett Gardner	LF	5	.358	.329	3.2	0.58	0.07
Derek Jeter	SS	5	.360	.342	3.2	0.62	-0.06
Mark Teixeira	1B	5	.377	.384	3.1	0.80	0.01
Alex Rodriguez	3B	5	.372	.384	3.1	0.80	-0.03
Robinson Cano	2B	5	.355	.372	3.2	0.76	-0.01
Nick Swisher	RF	5	.354	.357	3.2	0.71	0.00
Jorge Posada	DH	4	.354	.354	2.6	0.57	0.00
Curtis Granderson	CF	4	.335	.346	2.7	0.54	0.01
Russell Martin	C	4	.362	.336	2.6	0.48	0.00
Starter Total		42	.359	.357	27.0	5.85	-0.01
p162		6396			4100	889	-2

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
Outs: Outs made batting (PA times 1 minus OBP)
BR: Linear weights batting runs for PA (not position-adjusted or compared to average/replacement level)
Def: Estimated runs saved defensively compared to average over nine innings.

I’m showing the lineup based on 27 outs and nine defensive innings, or one game.

Here’s how that lineup projects vs. LHP.

vs. LHP
Player	Pos	PA	OBP	wOBA	Outs	BR	Def
Brett Gardner	LF	5	.337	.310	3.3	0.52	0.07
Derek Jeter	SS	5	.383	.364	3.1	0.64	-0.06
Mark Teixeira	1B	5	.384	.393	3.1	0.74	0.01
Alex Rodriguez	3B	5	.379	.392	3.1	0.76	-0.03
Robinson Cano	2B	5	.339	.354	3.3	0.65	-0.01
Nick Swisher	RF	5	.363	.367	3.2	0.70	0.00
Jorge Posada	DH	4	.358	.358	2.6	0.49	0.00
Curtis Granderson	CF	4	.287	.297	2.9	0.36	0.01
Russell Martin	C	4	.384	.357	2.5	0.51	0.00
Starter Total		42	.358	.356	27.0	5.38	-0.01
p162		6387			4100	818	-2

They lose almost one-half run per game.

And here’s how it projects vs. RHP.

Vs. RHP
Player	Pos	PA	OBP	wOBA	Outs	BR	Def
Brett Gardner	LF	5	.366	.336	3.2	0.60	0.07
Derek Jeter	SS	5	.352	.334	3.2	0.61	-0.06
Mark Teixeira	1B	5	.373	.381	3.1	0.83	0.01
Alex Rodriguez	3B	5	.369	.382	3.2	0.82	-0.03
Robinson Cano	2B	5	.362	.379	3.2	0.81	-0.01
Nick Swisher	RF	5	.350	.353	3.3	0.71	0.00
Jorge Posada	DH	4	.353	.352	2.7	0.60	0.00
Curtis Granderson	CF	4	.351	.363	2.6	0.60	0.01
Russell Martin	C	4	.355	.330	2.6	0.46	0.00
Starter Total		42	.359	.357	27.0	6.04	-0.01
p162		6400			4100	917	-2

The good news is that the lineup vs. RHP is strong. Since the Yankees will probably get around 2/3 of their PA vs. righties, that’s a good thing.

Because of the drop-off vs. LHP, I do think it’s imperative for the Yankees to get a right-handed hitting OF. I will include Damon’s projection here since his name’s come up as well.

vs. LHP
Player	Pos	PA	OBP	wOBA	Outs	BR	Def	Net
Andruw Jones	LF	4	.334	.342	2.7	0.48	-0.09	0.39
Johnny Damon	LF	4	.331	.325	2.7	0.44	-0.02	0.42
Manny Ramirez	LF	4	.417	.418	2.3	0.66	-0.09	0.57
Scott Hairston	LF	4	.322	.328	2.7	0.42	0.01	0.43

Jones’s defensive projection is based on a very limited sample in LF that shows him around -15, but I’d say he’s probably closer to average since that’s what his RF and CF numbers show.

In terms of offense, Ramirez is the best of the bunch but Jones is second. While Ramirez as DH over Posada would be an upgrade, I’m not sure it’s what I’d want the Yankees doing. If Posada can’t hit as DH or gets injured and Martin’s doing the bulk of the catching then I’d rather see Jesus Montero as the primary DH. He probably wouldn’t hit as well as Ramirez would in 2011 but he’d be a hell of a lot more fun to root for, at least for me.

Hairston projects similarly to Jones with a bit less offense and a bit more defense.

Here’s the team’s bottom line vs. LHP with each of the four players assuming Brett Gardner shifts to CF and they play LF with Posada at DH.

vs. LHP
Player	PA	OBP	wOBA	Outs	BR	Def	Net
w/ Jones	42	.362	.360	27.0	5.54	-0.13	5.41
w/ Damon	42	.362	.358	27.0	5.49	-0.06	5.43
w/ Ramirez	43	.370	.367	27.0	5.77	-0.123	5.65
w/ Hairston	42	.361	.359	27.0	5.48	-0.025	5.45

If Jones is more like an average defender then the net is 5.54. So he probably does make more sense than Damon or Hairston if hitting LHP and playing adequate defense is the primary concern. Over 200 PA vs. LHP the difference between Jones and Ramirez is only about five runs total.

That being said, we can’t just ignore how these players may do against RHP since they will almost certainly be used against them at some point, and may have to play a lot if one of the starters gets hurt, so here’s how the team’s net lineup looks with each of the four in LF vs. RHP.

Vs. RHP
Player	PA	OBP	wOBA	Outs	BR	Def	Net
w/ Jones	42	.356	.353	27.0	5.94	-0.13	5.81
w/ Damon	42	.360	.356	27.0	6.02	-0.06	5.96
w/ Ramirez	42	.363	.360	27.0	6.13	-0.12	6.01
w/ Hairston	42	.354	.352	27.0	5.85	-0.03	5.83

And getting right back to the basics, here’s how the lineup would look overall with each of the four players.

Overall
Player	PA	OBP	wOBA	Outs	BR	Def	Net
w/ Jones	42	.357	.354	27.0	5.78	-0.131	5.65
w/ Damon	42	.360	.356	27.0	5.85	-0.058	5.79
w/ Ramirez	42	.365	.361	27.0	6.02	-0.123	5.90
w/ Hairston	42	.356	.355	27.0	5.74	-0.025	5.71

Given the margin of error with projections in general and especially with defensive projections, I just can’t say definitively that the Yankees are better off with one of Jones, Damon or Hairston. While the idea of Ramirez in the lineup may be interesting, I just don’t think he’s up to playing defense full-time if the need manifests. This team doesn’t need a second full-time DH. If they need to replace Posada’s bat, they can rotate their OF through DH and play whomever they sign in the outfield, or they can use Montero and hope he’s ready.

--Posted at 4:01 pm by SG / 26 Comments | - (0)

Monday, January 10, 2011

How Would Adding Rafael Soriano to the Yankee Bullpen Affect the Yankees’ Postseason Odds?

Following up on the prior thread, here’s a comparison of a Yankee team with and without Rafael Soriano along with their top two divisional rivals.

AL East	W	Div	WC	PL	sW	sDiv	sWC	sPL
Red Sox	97.1	64.1%	18.5%	82.6%	96.7	58.1%	21.5%	79.6%
Yankees	89.6	22.7%	26.4%	49.1%	91.8	29.4%	27.9%	57.3%
Rays	85.7	11.8%	17.0%	28.8%	86.3	11.6%	21.5%	33.1%

W: Average projected win total in 10,000 simulations with current rosters
Div: Percentage of times team won the division
WC: Percentage of times team won the wild card
PL: Percentage of times team qualified for the postseason (Div + WC)

The s columns are the same thing as above assuming the Yankees added Rafael Soriano and that he made them about two wins better.

So the net effect is that two wins would improve the Yankees’ postseason chances by about 8% at this point in time. That’s pretty significant, and higher than I’d have expected.

--Posted at 6:43 pm by SG / 19 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Extremely Early CAIRO 2011 MLB Projected Standings

Around this time every year I like to run projected standings for the upcoming MLB season. It’s very limited in telling us much about how 2011 will play out since there are still a lot of roster changes coming, but it may give us some sense of how the offseason has impacted teams to this point and it also shows us how things would look if nothing changed from now until April. Which won’t happen.

Since this point is not readily comprehensible for people of limited intelligence I’ll reiterate it. It’s too early to construct meaningful rosters for a lot of teams, so these projections will favor the teams that have essentially completed their 2011 rosters.

In addition to that, projection systems are inherently limited. They are designed to estimate a player’s true talent based on what they’ve done so far and also by factoring in things like age and how similar players have performed in the past. They will generally be in the ballpark for the general population of MLB players, but they can miss significantly on individual players which can obviously affect certain teams more heavily than others.

So, anyway, using the depth charts from the wonderful MLB Depth Charts and includng playing time from players on the 40 man roster who don’t necessarily figure to be part of the the opening day 25 man rosters to account for organizational depth and playing out next season 10,000 times, here’s how CAIRO v0.3 sees things as of December 27, 2010.

Date	12/28/2010
Iterations	10000
American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Red Sox	98.1	63.9	856	690	54.6%	15.6%	70.2%	9.1	38	-54
Yankees	89.1	72.9	835	740	23.2%	21.7%	44.9%	-5.9	-24	47
Rays	87.1	74.9	707	640	17.9%	18.7%	36.6%	-8.9	-95	-9
Blue Jays	74.1	87.9	693	737	2.6%	5.8%	8.4%	-10.9	-62	9
Orioles	70.1	91.9	723	813	1.8%	2.9%	4.7%	4.1	110	28
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Twins	85.7	76.3	752	715	33.3%	6.2%	39.5%	-8.3	-29	44
White Sox	84.5	77.5	735	711	28.4%	6.2%	34.5%	-3.5	-17	7
Tigers	84.0	78.0	727	712	27.5%	4.6%	32.0%	3.0	-24	-31
Indians	73.9	88.1	728	802	8.2%	2.7%	10.8%	4.9	82	50
Royals	66.9	95.1	678	815	2.8%	1.1%	3.9%	-0.1	2	-30
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	89.2	72.8	746	673	50.1%	4.5%	54.6%	-0.8	-41	-14
Athletics	82.1	79.9	678	667	26.1%	4.3%	30.4%	1.1	15	41
Angels	77.9	84.1	665	690	15.5%	3.2%	18.7%	-2.1	-16	-12
Mariners	72.2	89.8	635	703	8.4%	2.5%	10.9%	11.2	122	5
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Phillies	96.1	65.9	754	618	54.5%	11.0%	65.5%	-0.9	-18	-22
Braves	88.5	73.5	754	690	26.6%	13.3%	39.9%	-2.5	16	61
Mets	76.6	85.4	675	702	7.1%	4.5%	11.6%	-2.4	19	50
Marlins	77.3	84.7	679	708	8.7%	5.0%	13.7%	-2.7	-40	-9
Nationals	72.4	89.6	659	733	3.2%	2.0%	5.2%	13.4	-51	-141
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Cardinals	90.2	71.8	746	676	35.0%	12.0%	47.0%	4.2	10	35
Brewers	87.2	74.8	698	650	27.9%	8.9%	36.7%	10.2	-52	-154
Reds	85.5	76.5	723	689	23.5%	8.2%	31.7%	-5.5	-67	4
Cubs	79.3	82.7	742	761	10.5%	6.3%	16.8%	4.3	57	-6
Pirates	67.7	94.3	671	808	2.1%	1.2%	3.3%	-6.3	28	38
Astros	65.8	96.2	604	732	1.1%	1.0%	2.1%	3.8	-32	-36
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rockies	85.9	76.1	768	732	31.7%	5.9%	37.6%	2.9	-2	15
Giants	84.2	77.8	699	667	24.1%	6.6%	30.6%	-7.8	2	84
Dodgers	83.3	78.7	677	659	20.3%	7.2%	27.5%	3.3	10	-33
Padres	81.2	80.8	647	652	17.7%	5.0%	22.6%	-8.8	-18	71
Diamondbacks	73.8	88.2	690	757	6.4%	1.9%	8.3%	3.8	-30	-25

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

The only reason I am showing wins and losses to one decimal place is so I don’t have to answer questions about why the wins and losses don’t add up to exactly 2430. There is no way to imply that something like this can be precise to that level.

Did I mention that it’s still too early to do this, and that it shouldn’t be taken seriously?

I guess it’s not exactly news that Boston and Philadelphia look to be the two best teams in baseball right now. Although it’s easy for lazy analysts to make the claim that Tampa Bay is going to be bad because they lost Carl Crawford and their whole bullpen, it’s just not true. They’ve won the AL East in two of the past three seasons, and they have a ton of pitching talent in the minors. Jake McGee looks like a potentially dominant closer. They also won 96 games last year despite getting very little production out of first base and DH. Losing Crawford hurts, but Desmond Jennings is another good prospect who has a chance to mitigate that a bit as well.

Toronto tends to project worse than they actually end up doing every year, mainly because they’ve always seemed to get better than expected pitching. They’ve lost John Buck and Shaun Marcum from last year’s team, and CAIRO is expecting Jose Bautista will not hit 54 HRs again which explains most of their drop.

The Orioles tend to project better than they actually end up doing every year, but perhaps they’ll Buck that trend in 2011.

As for our Yankees, they’re still a good team. They’re just not as good as Boston on paper right now. That doesn’t mean they can’t win the division, it just means that they need some players to exceed their projections (A.J.?) and/or some players from Boston/Tampa Bay to underperform some of their’s. If they can add Andy Pettitte or some league average starter who can give them 180 innings or so that’s probably worth another two wins over Ivan Nova/Sergio Mitre.

Right now the AL Central looks pretty tightly bunched at the top between the White Sox, Tigers and Twins. Cleveland should be able to hold off KC for fourth place, although if Melky-mania runs wild who knows?

The West looks like Texas’s to lose, even without Cliff “The Big Train” Lee. LA of A could pick up about three wins if they sign Adrian Beltre, but that alone doesn’t seem like it’d be enough to get them up to Texas’s level.

I don’t know if the Phillies are as good as Boston, although they may be a better short series team. They are almost certainly the tallest midget in the circus known as the National League, but they’re not some 110 win juggernaut on paper. The Braves seem to be the second best team in the NL East and should at least be a strong contender for the wild card.

The Cardinals still appear to have the best front-line talent in the NL Central although Milwaukee has improved themselves significantly. The Reds are not far off from the top either.

The NL West is also tightly bunched at the top, with only about four wins separating first place through fourth.

Did I mention that it’s too early for this to be taken too seriously?

--Posted at 10:00 am by SG / 134 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, October 21, 2010

2010 ALCS Probabilities After Game 6

Texas: 75.3%
Yankees: 24.7%

Update: Since Mike K. asked about updating the game probabilities from this thread, and this was posted before I saw that, here goes.

For Game 6. in the Yankees case, they’re replacing 4-5 PAs of Mark Teixeira versus a RHP with Marcus Thames, assuming Berkman would have DH’ed instead of playing 1B. That’s about a 0.3 run downgrade, which moves the Yankees’ probability of winning game 6 from 53.5% to about 50.8%.

For Game 7, you are replacing 4 PAs of Mark Teixeira vs. Cliff Lee to 4 PAs of Lance Berkman vs. Cliff Lee, which is like a 0.19 run downgrade. That takes the Yankees down from a 46.1% win probability in Game 7 to 43.8%.

Of course this is in the theoretical world where Cliff Lee gives up runs. In the real world, you’re going from 0 runs to 0 runs and 0.0% win probability to a 0.0% win probability.

Near as I can tell, Cruz isn’t going to miss Game 6 or 7. If he did, the downgrade to Murphy vs. Hughes and Francouer vs. Pettitte is around the same as the Yankees’s downgrades in Games 6/7. So if Cruz is out, it’s effectively a wash. If not, ALCS probabilities should be more like

Texas: 77.8%
Yankees: 22.2%

--Posted at 8:27 am by SG / 47 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

2010 ALCS Probabilities After Game 5

Texas: 85.8%
Yankees: 14.2%

Update: Mark Teixeira injured, out for playoffs.

I didn’t even know Teixeira was playing.

--Posted at 9:30 am by SG / 26 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, October 17, 2010

2010 ALCS Probabilities after Game 2

After splitting the first two games in Texas, and with Cliff Lee looming in Game 3 and A.J. Burnett looming in Game 4, I figured it’d be good to look at how the rest of the ALCS may play out.

To do that, I’ve set up a simulation that runs through the rest of the series using the actual starting pitching matchups and using the lineups both teams have used in the first two games. If a lefty is pitching, the lineups will be the lineups from Game 1 and if a righty is pitching the lineups will be the ones used in Game 2. I’m using CAIRO projections updated to include what happened in 2010 rather than just the 2010 numbers, since for the majority of players projections should tell us more than what they actually did in a single season.

So running through the ALCS 10,000 times, here are the distributions for the possible remaining outcomes.

Result	%
TEX in 4	0.0%
TEX in 5	10.4%
TEX in 6	17.3%
TEX in 7	18.4%
NYA in 7	15.1%
NYA in 6	25.7%
NYA in 5	13.1%
NYA in 4	0.0%
TEX	46.1%
NYA	53.9%

The last row is just the combined probabilities for each team winning overall.

The Yankees are still slight favorites at 53.9% overall. The most common outcome in these simulations was Yankees in 6.

Here’s how the series breaks down by game.

Game	Road	Starter	Home	Starter	NYA w%
1	NYA	Sabathia	TEX	Wilson	100.0%
2	NYA	Hughes	TEX	Lewis,C	0.0%
3	TEX	Lee	NYA	Pettitte	50.1%
4	TEX	Hunter	NYA	Burnett	51.7%
5	TEX	Wilson	NYA	Sabathia	57.6%
6	NYA	Hughes	TEX	Lewis,C	53.5%
7	NYA	Pettitte	TEX	Lee	46.1%

Even with Cliff Lee in Game 3, the Yankees should have a 50/50 chance of winning. The fact is, Andy Pettitte’s a good pitcher, facing a Texas team that is a bit worse against LHP. Backing him is the Yankee lineup, which is a very good one even after what happened in Game 2.

Game 4 is going to be the key to this series. The projections for Hunter and Burnett incorporate past performance, which makes Hunter worse and Burnett better. It’s certainly possible that Hunter and Burnett are closer to what they did in 2010 than what they project to do going forward, but we just don’t know that.

There’s also the possibility that the Yankees go with CC Sabathia on short rest in Game 4 if they lose Game 3, but based on how he’s looked in his first two postseason starts, I doubt they’re going to do that.

So it’s safe to say that tomorrow’s game is important. Like, really, really, really, really, really important.

How important?

If the Yankees win:

Result	%
TEX in 4	0.0%
TEX in 5	0.0%
TEX in 6	10.0%
TEX in 7	18.5%
NYA in 7	15.5%
NYA in 6	25.4%
NYA in 5	30.5%
NYA in 4	0.0%
TEX	28.6%
NYA	71.4%

If the Yankees lose:

Result	%
TEX in 4	0.0%
TEX in 5	21.1%
TEX in 6	22.9%
TEX in 7	19.7%
NYA in 7	19.2%
NYA in 6	17.0%
NYA in 5	0.0%
NYA in 4	0.0%
TEX	63.8%
NYA	36.2%

--Posted at 3:22 pm by SG / 34 Comments | - (0)

Friday, October 8, 2010

Team Odds of Advancing to LCS through Games of October 7, 2010

Using updated depth charts and simulating the rest of the DS games out 10,000 times, here are the percentages for each team’s chance to advance to their respective league championship series.

Team	Adv %
Yankees	95.0%
Phillies	86.0%
Rangers	83.4%
Giants	66.6%
Braves	33.4%
Rays	16.6%
Reds	14.0%
Twins	5.0%

--Posted at 11:04 am by SG / 78 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

2010 ALDS Preview: Rangers vs. Rays

Who will the Twins play in the next round?

Since Joe Maddon took his time to get his roster in, this is going to be be quick.

Here are the Rangers’s position player projections.

Lineup	Pos	2010 OBP	2010 wOBA	Proj OBP	Proj wOBA	PA	Outs	BR	Def
Elvis Andrus	SS	.335	.296	.310	.309	20	14	2	0.1
Michael Young	3B	.331	.336	.340	.341	20	13	3	-0.3
Josh Hamilton	CF	.411	.444	.366	.392	20	13	3	0.0
Vladimir Guerrero	DH	.346	.361	.355	.374	20	13	3	0.0
Nelson Cruz	RF	.372	.405	.343	.374	20	13	3	0.3
Ian Kinsler	2B	.380	.357	.352	.357	20	13	3	0.1
Mitch Moreland	1B	.360	.362	.319	.316	15	10	2	0.1
Bengie Molina	C	.292	.275	.286	.302	10	7	1	0.0
Julio Borbon	LF	.304	.287	.314	.297	10	7	1	-0.1
Andres Blanco	2B	.326	.298	.311	.297	10	7	1	0.0
David Murphy	LF	.355	.356	.334	.340	10	7	1	0.0
Cristian Guzman	SS	.308	.289	.305	.302	5	3	0	0.0
Chris Davis	1B	.279	.267	.286	.319	0	0	0	0.0
Matt Treanor	C	.285	.266	.289	.277	3	2	0	0.0
Jorge Cantu	1B	.301	.302	.317	.330	5	3	1	0.0

The biggest issue the Rangers probably have on the position player side is Josh Hamilton’s health. He’s playing through a rib injury and it may affect his availablity and his effectiveness.

And their pitching projections,

Pitcher	Role	2010 RA	2010 FIP	Proj RA	Proj FIP	IP	R
Cliff Lee	SP1	3.56	2.59	3.75	3.40	14	5.8
C.J. Wilson	SP2	3.66	3.59	3.93	3.68	6	2.6
Colby Lewis	SP3	4.04	3.51	4.70	4.03	6	3.1
Tommy Hunter	SP4	3.87	4.99	5.19	4.98	5	2.9
Neftali Feliz	CL	2.73	2.97	4.13	3.60	3	1.4
Darren O’Day	SU	2.18	3.58	3.26	3.61	3	1.1
Darren Oliver	MR	2.97	2.64	3.41	3.43	3	1.1
Derek Holland	MR	4.71	4.04	5.94	4.63	2	1.3
Alexi Ogando	MR	1.33	3.16	3.75	3.77	2	0.8
Dustin Nippert	MR	4.37	4.95	5.47	4.97	1	0.6

Texas has got a pretty good pitching staff, especially when you account for the historical tendency of their home park to boost offense. Obviously Cliff Lee’s as good as any pitcher out there, and having him going twice in a series is a pretty good thing.

As far as the AL East champs, here are their projections.

Lineup	Pos	2010 OBP	2010 wOBA	Proj OBP	Proj wOBA	PA	Outs	BR	Def
John Jaso	C	.371	.343	.343	.324	15	10	2	-0.1
Carlos Pena	1B	.324	.325	.352	.366	18	12	3	0.0
Sean Rodriguez	2B	.305	.312	.323	.338	20	14	3	0.3
Jason Bartlett	SS	.318	.298	.332	.318	20	13	2	0.1
Evan Longoria	3B	.372	.380	.367	.391	21	13	4	0.4
Carl Crawford	LF	.353	.374	.342	.347	21	14	3	0.3
B.J. Upton	CF	.324	.339	.341	.334	20	13	2	0.0
Ben Zobrist	RF	.345	.325	.351	.341	20	13	3	0.4
Rocco Baldelli	RF	.208	.238	.303	.331	5	3	1	0.0
Reid Brignac	SS	.308	.306	.300	.306	10	7	1	0.0
Matt Joyce	RF	.359	.361	.321	.330	10	7	1	0.1
Kelly Shoppach	C	.308	.296	.311	.329	3	2	0	0.0
Dan Johnson	1B	.341	.337	.350	.347	5	3	1	0.0
Desmond Jennings	CF	.292	.267	.316	.311	1	1	0	0.1

Pitcher	Role	2010 RA	2010 FIP	Proj RA	Proj FIP	IP	R
David Price	SP1	3.06	3.44	4.01	4.15	14	6.2
James Shields	SP2	5.67	4.26	4.73	4.15	6	3.2
Matt Garza	SP3	4.13	4.43	4.23	4.41	6	2.8
Wade Davis	SP4	4.19	4.83	5.06	4.84	6	3.4
Rafael Soriano	CL	2.05	2.79	3.09	3.21	3	1.0
Grant Balfour	SU	2.60	2.75	3.45	3.30	3	1.2
Joaquin Benoit	MR	1.52	2.52	3.73	3.68	3	1.2
Dan Wheeler	MR	3.75	4.19	4.24	4.41	1	0.5
Randy Choate	MR	4.67	3.50	4.50	3.93	2	1.0
Jeff Niemann	MR	4.47	4.66	4.83	4.70	1	0.5

David Price is probably better than that projection, but we won’t know that for a while. Although James Shields had an ugly season, a lot of that had to do with a pretty high BABIP. I’m still surprised he’s starting Game 2 though.

So you’ve got:

Team	Offense	Defense	Pitching	Pythagenpat	p162
Rangers	24.1	0.2	20.8	.568	92
		VS
Rays	24.5	1.7	21.0	.613	99

And 10,000 simulations of that series says:

Rays: 53.9%
Rangers: 46.1%

--Posted at 12:44 pm by SG / 32 Comments | - (0)

2010 ALDS Preview: Twins vs. Yankees

The Twins broke in their new stadium with a very successful season, winning 94 games and taking the AL Central by six games. Although they haven’t fared well against the Yankees in the postseason, that doesn’t mean a damn thing when looking at this series.

The Twins scored 781 runs this year, which ranked sixth in baseball. Here’s a look at how their position players project.

Lineup	Pos	2010 OBP	2010 wOBA	Proj OBP	Proj wOBA	PA	Outs	BR	Def
Denard Span	CF	.328	.311	.360	.332	20	13	2	0.1
Orlando Hudson	2B	.334	.317	.341	.325	20	13	2	0.1
Joe Mauer	C	.402	.380	.408	.397	20	12	4	0.0
Jason Kubel	RF	.324	.327	.333	.348	20	13	3	-0.3
Michael Cuddyer	1B	.336	.332	.332	.339	20	13	3	-0.2
Jim Thome	DH	.410	.434	.355	.366	20	13	3	0.0
Delmon Young	LF	.334	.353	.328	.343	19	13	2	-0.3
Danny Valencia	3B	.354	.353	.300	.307	19	13	2	0.1
J.J. Hardy	SS	.317	.312	.310	.317	19	13	2	0.2
Drew Butera	C	.234	.233	.269	.263	3	2	0	0.1
Brendan Harris	DH	.233	.211	.301	.296	3	2	0	0.0
Nick Punto	RF	.311	.283	.312	.279	3	2	0	0.0
Alexi Casilla	SS	.324	.319	.302	.279	3	2	0	0.1
Justin Morneau	1B	.437	.448	.370	.386	0	0	0	0.0
Jason Repko	RF	.326	.307	.288	.289	0	0	0	0.0
Matt Tolbert	1B	.293	.290	.292	.283	0	0	0	0.0

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
PA: Plate appearances
Outs: calculated as (1- Proj OBP) times PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs over series estimate of playing time
Def: Projected defense over series estimate of playing time using an average of DRS, TZ, UZR and ZR

You’ll note that the Twins’ 2010 wOBA are almost all lower than their projections. I think that’s due to the way Target Field played, as it seems to have suppressed offense by about 4%. We don’t want to make too much of a single year’s park factors, but it is worth mentioning.

Denard Span had a down year after putting up a couple of strong seasons in 2008 and 2009. Some of it was a drop in BABIP as he went from .353 to .294 this year, but he also walked less frequently (8.5% of the time compared to 12.2% in 2008 and 10.4% in 2009). His HR/FB rate plummeted to just 2.0%, compared to 10.5% in 2008 and 5.9% in 2009. We have more evidence that Span is better than he was in 2010, so that should be the assumption. He appears to be a good defender according to most of the advanced defensive metrics.

Orlando Hudson has had a tough time getting a job the last few years for whatever reason, but he’s a solid second baseman. Not necessarily in the Utley/Cano class, but pretty good overall.

It’s no secret that Joe Mauer is one of the most valuable players in baseball, and the key player for the Twins.

Unfortunately for the Twins, they’re going to be without Justin Morneau for the postseason. He was having a great season before he went down with a concussion and his loss hurts them. Michael Cuddyer was able to step into Morneau’s spot at first base and in the cleanup spot, but he’s both an offensive and defensive downgrade.

Jim Thome was signed to be a part-time player, but got pressed into full-time duty with Morneau out and had an outstanding season. His performance against lefties was markedly worse (.241/.298/.471 compared to .302/.455/.698 vs RHP), which is probably part of the reasoning behind the Yankees setting up their rotation to get four starts out of CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte. As a team the Twins do project worse against lefties, but I’ll get into that in a bit.

Delmon Young had the best season of his career in 2010. It’s easy to forget that he’s still just 24 since he’s been in the majors since he turned 20. He still doesn’t walk much and his defense is still unimpressive, but he can be a dangerous hitter, particularly against lefties.

I really don’t know much about Danny Valencia, except that he came up and hit very well this year and showed a good glove. Time will tell if he’s as good as he was in 2010, but his projection isn’t particularly good.

J.J. Hardy rounds out the primary starters. Hardy is a good fielder but not much of a hitter.

The bench looks like some combination of Drew Butera, Brendan Harris, Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla, Jason Repko and Matt Tolbert.

With this depth chart, using the assumption of a five game series and 25 batting outs per game, the Twins would project to score about 24 runs. Their overall defense projects to be a bit worse than average.

Getting back to the platoon thing, here’s how the Twins lineup projects against all pitching and then against LHP and RHP.

Player	Overall
	PA	wOBA	BR	Outs
Denard Span	5.0	.332	0.6	3.2
Orlando Hudson	5.0	.325	0.6	3.3
Joe Mauer	5.0	.397	0.9	3.0
Jason Kubel	5.0	.348	0.7	3.3
Michael Cuddyer	5.0	.339	0.6	3.3
Jim Thome	4.0	.366	0.6	2.6
Delmon Young	4.0	.343	0.5	2.7
Danny Valencia	4.0	.307	0.4	2.8
J.J. Hardy	4.0	.317	0.4	2.8
Total	41.0	.342	5.3	27.0
Vs. L	PA	wOBA	BR	Outs
Denard Span	5.0	.322	0.6	3.3
Orlando Hudson	5.0	.310	0.5	3.4
Joe Mauer	5.0	.359	0.7	3.2
Jason Kubel	5.0	.314	0.5	3.5
Michael Cuddyer	4.5	.357	0.6	2.9
Jim Thome	4.0	.316	0.4	2.8
Delmon Young	4.0	.363	0.6	2.6
Danny Valencia	4.0	.325	0.5	2.7
J.J. Hardy	4.0	.335	0.5	2.7
Total	40.5	.333	4.9	27.0
Vs. R	PA	wOBA	BR	Outs
Denard Span	5.0	.331	0.6	3.2
Orlando Hudson	5.0	.329	0.6	3.3
Joe Mauer	5.0	.414	1.0	2.9
Jason Kubel	5.0	.356	0.7	3.3
Michael Cuddyer	5.0	.330	0.6	3.4
Jim Thome	4.3	.394	0.8	2.7
Delmon Young	4.0	.337	0.5	2.7
Danny Valencia	4.0	.302	0.4	2.8
J.J. Hardy	4.0	.309	0.4	2.8
Total	41.3	.346	5.5	27.0

That’s a pretty significant difference. 0.6 runs per game is close to 100 runs over a 162 game season. So it makes sense to attack them with as much left-handed pitching as you can.

So how about the pitching?

Pitcher	Role	2010 RA	2010 FIP	Proj RA	Proj FIP	IP	R
Francisco Liriano	SP1	3.62	2.66	4.09	3.67	14	5.4
Carl Pavano	SP2	3.87	4.07	4.73	4.33	5	2.6
Brian Duensing	SP3	2.89	3.74	4.54	4.35	6	3.0
Nick Blackburn	SP4	5.79	5.06	5.11	4.65	4	2.3
Matt Capps	CL	3.33	3.24	4.52	4.12	3	1.5
Jesse Crain	SU	3.57	3.25	3.94	3.73	3	1.3
Jon Rauch	MR	3.12	2.95	3.98	3.82	3	1.3
Brian Fuentes	MR	3.19	3.96	3.81	3.82	3	1.3
Matt Guerrier	MR	3.55	4.29	4.04	4.49	2	0.9
Jose Mijares	MR	3.98	3.97	4.30	4.51	1	0.5
Kevin Slowey	MR	4.63	3.99	4.74	4.13	1	0.5
Scott Baker	MR	4.60	3.97	4.38	4.05	0	0.0
Total						45	20.7

2010/Proj RA: 2010/projected run allowed per nine innings
2010/Proj FIP: 2010/projected Fielding Independent Pitching
IP: Estimated innings pitched in this series
R: Estimated runs allowed in this series (Projected RA divided by nine times IP)

It looks like the Twins will go with a four man rotation of Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing and Nick Blackburn. That would set up Liriano to go in Game 5 if needed.

The first thing I’ll say about the pitching projections is that Liriano’s projection is wrong. He’s been working his way back from Tommy John surgery the last few seasons and this year his velocity jumped by about 2 mph and he’s been a completely different pitcher. I don’t think I’d expect him to be as good as his 2010 FIP, but he’s a very good pitcher right now.

Pavano. That name seems familiar to me for some reason…

Brian Duensing had a very good year working out of the bullpen and the rotation. He struggled a bit over his last two starts and was reported to have ‘shoulder tightness’ in his final game of the year but it appears to be a non-issue and he’s penciled in as the Game 3 starter.

Nick Blackburn was decent in 2008 and 2009 but had a rough 2010. I am honestly surprised he’s getting a start in this series if needed, although it may have something to do with the fact that he pitched pretty well against the Yankees in the 2009 ALDS.

The Twins bullpen has been very good all year, even after losing Joe Nathan. Matt Capps is the closer and he pitched pretty well this year, but CAIRO’s skeptical. Jesse Crain and Jon Rauch are the key righties, and expect to see lots of Brian Fuentes and Jose Mijares against the Yankee lefties.

The unbalanced schedule makes it a little hard to get a true read on how good any particular team is. You can look at things like quality of opposition, but even there you’ve got a lot of noise. If the AL Central has a higher wOBA than the AL East, is it because they have better hitters or is it because they have worse pitchers? The Twins went 15-21 against the AL East. Take out Baltimore and they went 12-20.

That doesn’t mean the Twins aren’t a good team, because they are. It doesn’t mean they can’t beat the Yankees, because they might.

Here’s how the Twins offense, defense and pitching projections add up.

Team	Offense	Defense	Pitching	Pythagenpat	p162
Twins	23.8	-0.2	21.6	.546	88

If Morneau was playing in this series they’d be more like a 92 win team. If you assume Liriano can pitch to a 3.50 RA instead of his projected 4.09 RA they’d also be around a 92 win team. Home field advantage in a five game series is worth about 0.004 percentage points.

I’m going to give the Twins a 3.50 RA Liriano. So simming a series between the Twins as a 92 win team and the Yankees as a 102 win team 10,000 times I get the following win probabilities:

Yankees: 57.22%
Twins: 42.78%

So I’m going to say Twins in 2.

--Posted at 6:36 am by SG / 31 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, September 23, 2010

The Implications of Tonight’s Game with Tampa Bay

The Yankees and Rays will face off for the last time in the regular season later tonight (weather permitting). The Yankees still hold a 1.5 game lead on the Rays, but a loss tonight would tie the two in the loss column.

At this point, it’s a virtual certainty both teams are going to the postseason. So the question is which team is going to end up taking the division since it means home field advantage and a possible seeding advantage.

The Rays lead the season series 9-8, so the best the Yankees can do is tie it by winning tonight. Why does that matter? Because it’s the first tie-breaker when two teams from the same division end the year qualifying for the postseason with the same record.

So if the Yankees don’t win tonight, the Rays will win the AL East if the Yankees and Rays end the season with the same record.

How about if the Yankees do win tonight, by some miracle? In that instance, the season series is tied which means they have to move onto the second tie-breaker. Here’s how Major League Rule 33 and Major League rule 34 describe that.

The Club with the higher winning percentage in head-to-head competition between the two tied Clubs during the championship season; or

If the Clubs remain tied, then to the tied Club with the higher winning percentage in intradivision games during the championship season; or

If the Clubs remain tied, then to the tied Club with the higher winning percentage in the last half of intraleague games during the championship season; or

If the Clubs remain tied, then to the tied Club with the higher winning percentage in the last half plus one of intraleague games during the championship season, provided that such additional game was not a game between the two tied Clubs. This process will be followed game-by-game until the tie is broken.

The Rays have three intradivisional games left after tonight, at home hosting the Orioles. They currently have a record of 40-28 against the rest of the AL East.

The yankees have nine intradivisional games left after tonight, three at home vs. Boston and then six on the road against Toronto and Boston. They are currently 35-27 against the rest of the AL East.

If the Rays lose all the rest of their AL East games starting tonight, they end with an intradivision record of 40-32. So the Yankees would only have to take four of nine from Toronto/Boston to tie that. However, the more likely scenario is Tampa Bay picking up two wins against Baltimore which means the Yankees would have to go 6-3 against Toronto/Boston to match them.

My Monte Carlo simulator currently puts the AL East odds at:
Yankees: 64.8%
Rays: 35.1%

That is high for the Yankees because my simulator awards ties a share of the division, so if the Yankees and Rays finish the year with the same record they each get 0.5 of the division title. Someday I’ll fix that, but for now just mentally adjust that in your head.

If the Yankees win tonight (haha), the odds go to:
Yankees: 75.9%
Rays: 23.1%

And when the Yankees lose tonight, the odds go to:
Rays: 54.0%
Yankees: 46.0%

Again, mentally adjust those to account for the tie-breakers.

That’s a pretty big swing on one game, huh?

It almost seems to me like the Yankees have to win this game if they want the division, but at this point it’s not worth going above and beyond for it. If it happens, great. If not, take your chances on the road to start the postseason.

--Posted at 10:11 am by SG / 42 Comments | - (0)

Monday, September 13, 2010

The Implications of This Series With Tampa Bay

Postseason odds as of this morning (September 13)
Yankees: 97.5 wins, 49.0% Division, 48.5% wild card
Rays: 97.6 wins, 51.0% Division, 47.3% wild card
Red Sox: 89.9 wins, 0.0% division, 3.6% wild card

At this point if both teams played to expectations going forward, the Rays are slight favorites. Boston’s not technically at 0.0% but with rounding that’s where they are right now.

Postseason odds if Tampa sweeps the next three games
Yankees: 96.1 wins, 23.5% Division, 70.4% wild card
Rays: 98.8 wins, 76.2% Division, 23.4% wild card
Red Sox: 89.7 wins, 0.3% Division, 5.4% wild card

If this scenario unfolds, not only do the Yankees’ chances for winning the AL East plummett, their overall odds of making the postseason also drop and it puts the division back in play for Boston although their chances are still microscopic. So this shouldn’t happen because we’ve suffered long enough.

Postseason odds if Tampa takes two of the next three games
Yankees: 97.1 wins, 39.3% Division, 57.0% wild card
Rays: 97.9 wins, 60.5% Division, 39.3% wild card
Red Sox: 89.7 wins, 0.2% Division, 3.4% wild card

Probably the most likely outcome here, and one that should still keep the division in play for the Yanks, albeit with a slightly reduced probability.

Postseason odds if the Yankees take two of the next three games
Yankees: 98.1 wins, 62.5% Division, 35.8% wild card
Rays: 96.9 wins, 37.4% Division, 60.2% wild card
Red Sox: 89.7 wins, 0.1% Division, 3.4% wild card

Yeah, like that’ll happen…

Postseason odds if the Yankees sweep
Yankees: 99.2 wins, 81.4% division, 17.6% wild card
Rays: 96.0 wins, 18.6% division, 77.7% wild card
Red Sox: 89.7 wins, 0.1% division, 3.5% wild card

You can stop laughing now.

I realize that the advent of the wild card makes a lot of people care less about the division, but I still think winning the division is important. It’s a validation of the entire organization over the marathon of 162 games. Granted, there’s some good fortune generally needed to win it, but it’s certainly less than is needed to win a postseason series.

I also think that getting home field advantage is important. While I believe it’s true that the majority of postseason series do not go the distance, that doesn’t necessarily reduce home field advantage to only being important if the series goes the full five or seven games. I think part of the importance of home field advantage is the fact that you get to start the first two games of any series at home, where you are more likely to win each game.

I don’t know if we can tease out the impact of that in any postseason series so consider it a theory with no empirical data to back it up though.

I never really cared about the 40 man roster being available to teams in September, but after watching Texas run 50 lefties out of their bullpen every night, I wonder if having seven games in September against your primary divisional rival is fair. The Rays probably have the best farm system in MLB, and have now augmented their bullpen and bench with some of those players. Then again, the Yankees were able to bring up Greg Golson which is also an unfair advantage.

The fact that the Yankees and Rays have seven games left against each other probably limits the usefulness of an exercise like this though. Frankly, whichever team wins more of those seven games probably wins the East.

--Posted at 10:03 am by SG / 37 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Did The Yankees Blow Their Chance at the AL East?

On September 4, the Yankees won their eighth consecutive game and had opened up a two game edge in the loss column for the AL East.

At this point, with 26 games left on the year they were in the driver’s seat for the AL East title

Probability of winning AL East as of September 4
Yankees: 72.0%
Tampa Bay: 28.%
Boston: 0.0%

Boston was not quite at zero, but close enough when you round to the nearest tenth.

With four more games at home to finish off the long home stand before a potentially ugly road trip coming up, the Yankees just needed to hold serve to remain in control for the division title.

Holding court with one game versus Toronto and then three games with Baltimore at home meant something like this:

Vs. Toronto: 66% win probability
Vs. Baltimore: 80% win probability times three

So the Yankees should have won three of those four games if they wanted to keep that 72.0% probability of winning the AL East.

Instead, they’ve lost the first three of those games and now need to win this afternoon to avoid losing all four as well as a humiliating sweep AT HOME AGAINST THE HORRIBLE BALTIMORE ORIOLES.

Probability of winning AL East as of September 7
Yankees: 55.5%
Tampa Bay: 44.0%
Boston: 0.5%

So what happens if the Yankees lose today?

Yankees: 48.2%
Tampa Bay: 51.3%
Boston: 0.5%

This includes the probability of Tampa Bay winning or losing today.

Now obviously that’s closer to a toss-up than a clear Tampa Bay edge, but it now requires the Yankees to meet expectations over their last 22 games of the year, 15 of which are on the road.

Think about that again. The Yankees have 22 games left this season after today, and only seven of them are at home. Oh, and those seven home games are against arguably two of the top three teams in baseball.

I realize for some people the division doesn’t matter, but I’m not one of them. I actually consider winning the division to be a major achievement worthy of respect, not a stepping stone on the way to either winning the World Series or having a failure of a season.

Because of that, these last three days have really aggravated me. Today may end up killing me.

--Posted at 9:09 am by SG / 15 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Updated Monte Carlo Postseason Odds Through August 29, 2010

Team	W	Div	WC	PO
Rays	99.5	52.3%	43.9%	96.1%
Yankees	99.3	47.2%	48.3%	95.5%
Rangers	90.8	93.7%	0.0%	93.7%
Padres	94.6	83.5%	5.8%	89.3%
Reds	93.7	80.2%	8.6%	88.7%
Twins	93.3	87.4%	0.3%	87.7%
Braves	93.7	71.0%	14.3%	85.3%
Phillies	90.6	27.9%	28.0%	56.0%
Cardinals	89.2	19.7%	20.7%	40.4%
Giants	88.6	13.2%	15.4%	28.6%
White Sox	87.4	11.7%	0.7%	12.4%
Red Sox	90.6	0.5%	6.7%	7.2%
Rockies	84.5	2.7%	3.9%	6.6%
Athletics	82.3	5.7%	0.0%	5.7%
Marlins	82.6	0.7%	1.6%	2.3%
Dodgers	82.5	0.6%	1.3%	1.9%
Tigers	80.8	1.0%	0.0%	1.0%
Mets	81.9	0.3%	0.4%	0.7%
Angels	77.7	0.7%	0.0%	0.7%
Blue Jays	83.2	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%
Brewers	75.8	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%
Orioles	58.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Indians	67.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Royals	67.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Mariners	63.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Nationals	69.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Cubs	68.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Pirates	53.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Astros	73.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Diamondbacks	65.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

W: Final projected win total (average of 10,000 iterations)
Div: Percentage of time team won their division
WC: Percentage of time team won the wild card
PO: Percentage of time team made the playoffs (Div + WC)

The Rays’ schedule is a bit easier than the Yankees’ going forward, so they may now probably be a very slight favorite to win the East. For all intents and purposes though, it’s a tossup.

The Rays and Yankees are currently the two most likely teams to qualify for the postseason.

Boston’s not dead yet, but they probably should get a priest prepped for administering last rites shortly.

The Rangers, Reds, Padres, Twins and Braves are all pretty big favorites to take their divisions at this point (all over 70%) and the NL wild card race looks like Philly -> St. Louis -> Giants.

Shocking no one, the Orioles, Indians, Royals, Mariners, Nationals, Cubs, Pirates, Astros and Diamondbacks are either mathematically eliminated or have a less than 1 in 10,000 likelihood of making the postseason.

--Posted at 10:55 pm by SG / 48 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Monte Carlo Wins and Postseason Odds Report Through Games of July 7, 2010

I just realized I haven’t run my Monte Carlo simulations for wins and postseason odds since May 25, so here’s an update through yesterday’s games.

When these were last run, the Yankees were on pace for around 97 wins and they had about a 70.2% chance at making the postseason. Their probability of taking the AL East was around 33.5%, trailing Tampa Bay who were at 51.9%. Boston was at around 36.4% for making the postseason and 14.1% to take the AL East.

For the going forward projections, I’m using 60% 2010 Pythagenpat and 40% 2010 pre-season projections. Team performance over the rest of the season then gets added to actual 2010 W/L to estimate each team’s projected final win total and postseason odds.

Team	pW	opW	pW+/-
Padres	91.6	75.9	15.7
Mets	88.4	76.1	12.3
Blue Jays	76.3	65.1	11.2
Reds	91.0	80.6	10.4
Rangers	94.3	84.4	9.9
Tigers	85.1	77.9	7.2
Rays	98.3	91.2	7.1
White Sox	85.3	79.8	5.5
Braves	93.4	88.3	5.1
Twins	88.0	83.1	4.9
Yankees	100.5	96.1	4.4
Angels	82.3	78.0	4.3
Giants	85.2	81.1	4.1
Rockies	87.5	83.8	3.7
Royals	74.3	71.5	2.8
Red Sox	92.9	92.9	0.0
Marlins	79.9	80.0	-0.1
Dodgers	86.2	86.3	-0.1
Cardinals	90.3	90.6	-0.3
Athletics	77.3	79.2	-1.9
Nationals	72.6	74.8	-2.2
Phillies	86.3	89.7	-3.4
Astros	64.5	68.8	-4.3
Brewers	74.4	81.6	-7.2
Cubs	74.5	83.1	-8.6
Indians	67.0	79.9	-12.9
Mariners	67.9	81.4	-13.5
Pirates	57.2	72.3	-15.1
Diamondbacks	65.0	82.2	-17.2
Orioles	52.6	74.6	-22.0

pW: Updated projected wins as of July 7
opW: Original pre-season projected wins
pW+/-:pW - opW

This table shows how many wins every team is now projected to end the season with, sorted in descending order of improvement compared to the preseason.

Break up the Padres!
I think I like these probabilities better than the last ones.

Team	ppo%	opo%	po%+/-
Rangers	86.3%	38.9%	47.4%
Padres	57.6%	13.2%	44.4%
Reds	62.5%	21.3%	41.2%
Rays	75.4%	46.1%	29.3%
Braves	68.3%	42.9%	25.4%
Mets	37.5%	13.0%	24.5%
Yankees	83.0%	63.0%	20.0%
Twins	44.6%	34.8%	9.8%
Tigers	25.9%	19.9%	6.0%
Cardinals	56.3%	50.9%	5.4%
White Sox	29.3%	24.8%	4.5%
Rockies	31.9%	30.3%	1.6%
Blue Jays	0.6%	1.9%	-1.3%
Giants	21.8%	23.3%	-1.5%
Astros	0.0%	4.4%	-4.4%
Royals	2.6%	9.3%	-6.7%
Pirates	0.0%	7.6%	-7.6%
Orioles	0.0%	8.3%	-8.3%
Angels	12.2%	21.6%	-9.4%
Dodgers	28.0%	38.5%	-10.5%
Nationals	0.6%	11.1%	-10.5%
Marlins	6.1%	19.3%	-13.2%
Red Sox	37.0%	53.0%	-16.0%
Athletics	2.7%	23.8%	-21.1%
Phillies	26.3%	48.0%	-21.7%
Brewers	1.4%	23.5%	-22.1%
Indians	0.2%	25.4%	-25.2%
Cubs	1.8%	27.2%	-25.5%
Diamondbacks	0.1%	25.6%	-25.6%
Mariners	0.2%	29.4%	-29.2%

ppo%: Re-projected probability of making playoffs
opo%: Original projected probability of making the playoffs
po%+/-:ppo% - opo% (increase or decrease in playoff probability)

This table compares every team’s current probability of making the postseason with their pre-season projections, sorted in descending order of increase in probability.

Hard to believe that a team as awful as the Yankees are now at 83.0% to make the postseason, but that’s almost certainly due to me rigging these numbers to make the Yankees look better than they are.

FWIW, revised AL East odds are now:
WOE: 51.5%
Rays: 36.4%
16 Aces + best defense evah: 12.0%

--Posted at 2:02 pm by SG / 16 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Monte Carlo Wins and Postseason Odds Report Through Games of May 24, 2010

I last run these on April 22, and here’s what they look like now. As a refresher, here’s description of the methodolgy.

Team	pW	opW	pW+/-	gain/loss
Rays	101.0	91.2	9.8	3.0
Blue Jays	74.5	65.1	9.4	7.2
Padres	82.9	75.9	7.0	4.8
Twins	88.3	83.1	5.2	0.7
Reds	85.6	80.6	5.0	6.9
Tigers	82.8	77.9	4.9	4.5
Phillies	94.1	89.7	4.4	0.2
Mets	79.3	76.1	3.2	2.1
Rangers	87.0	84.4	2.6	3.2
Nationals	76.9	74.8	2.1	1.8
Cardinals	92.1	90.6	1.5	-1.7
Athletics	80.3	79.2	1.1	-2.6
Yankees	97.1	96.1	1.0	-3.1
Dodgers	87.1	86.3	0.8	1.6
Rockies	83.9	83.8	0.1	-1.4
Marlins	80.1	80.0	0.1	0.4
Giants	81.1	81.1	0.0	-1.4
Braves	87.2	88.3	-1.1	-0.3
Cubs	81.6	83.1	-1.5	0.8
Royals	69.4	71.5	-2.1	-0.6
Angels	75.6	78.0	-2.4	-0.9
Red Sox	90.3	92.9	-2.6	2.9
Pirates	68.4	72.3	-3.9	-0.2
White Sox	75.8	79.8	-4.0	1.1
Diamondbacks	77.2	82.2	-5.0	-1.7
Brewers	76.2	81.6	-5.4	-8.5
Astros	62.6	68.8	-6.2	-2.6
Mariners	74.3	81.4	-7.1	-8.2
Indians	72.1	79.9	-7.8	-6.9
Orioles	65.3	74.6	-9.3	-1.3

pW: Re-projected wins
opW: Original projected wins
pW+/-:pW - opW
gain/loss change from prior run

This table is sorted by overall expected improvement in terms of wins over the pre-season projections entering 2010.

The Rays continue to lead the majors in terms of how much better they now look than they did at the start of the season. The Yankees’ have lost 3 games from what was around a 100 win pace on April 22.

In terms of making the postseason, here’s how the probabilities look.

Team	ppo%	opo%	po%+/-	gain/loss
Rays	80.6%	46.1%	34.5%	10.7%
Twins	56.9%	34.8%	22.1%	7.7%
Phillies	69.7%	48.0%	21.7%	6.9%
Rangers	57.2%	38.9%	18.3%	23.9%
Reds	35.2%	21.3%	13.9%	20.1%
Cardinals	64.4%	50.9%	13.5%	0.6%
Padres	25.2%	13.2%	12.0%	10.8%
Tigers	28.8%	19.9%	8.9%	8.4%
Yankees	70.2%	63.0%	7.2%	-6.4%
Dodgers	42.8%	38.5%	4.3%	8.1%
Blue Jays	2.9%	1.9%	1.0%	1.4%
Athletics	23.8%	23.8%	0.0%	-8.3%
Mets	12.7%	13.0%	-0.3%	0.6%
Rockies	28.4%	30.3%	-1.9%	-7.0%
Giants	20.4%	23.3%	-2.9%	-5.1%
Nationals	8.0%	11.1%	-3.1%	-2.2%
Astros	0.6%	4.4%	-3.8%	-1.0%
Marlins	14.9%	19.3%	-4.5%	-1.3%
Braves	37.3%	42.9%	-5.6%	-1.9%
Royals	3.7%	9.3%	-5.7%	-2.8%
Pirates	1.9%	7.6%	-5.8%	-1.3%
Cubs	20.2%	27.2%	-7.1%	0.4%
Orioles	0.2%	8.3%	-8.1%	-1.0%
Angels	13.0%	21.6%	-8.6%	-3.9%
White Sox	11.8%	24.8%	-13.1%	0.2%
Diamondbacks	11.2%	25.6%	-14.4%	-5.6%
Brewers	7.2%	23.5%	-16.3%	-22.3%
Red Sox	36.4%	53.0%	-16.6%	6.3%
Mariners	9.5%	29.4%	-19.9%	-19.9%
Indians	5.1%	25.4%	-20.3%	-16.4%

The biggest gainers from the last run are the Rangers and Reds, with the Yankees losing about 6.4%. They had about a 50% chance of winning the AL East on April 22, but that’s dropped to about 33.5% now, with Tampa Bay moving up to 51.9% and Boston moving from 8.3% to 14.1%.

One thing worth noting is the Yankees have played fewer home games than any AL team with 19, so in theory they should have a bit of an advantage going forward.

That being said, the Yankees are essentially where we should have expected them to be overall, even though the way they got there is kind of annoying.

--Posted at 10:41 am by SG / 13 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

How Good Are The 2010 Yankees Right Now (May 11)?

Heading into 2010, the Yankees looked like a team that projected to win around 96-97 games.

A lot of that was based on an offense that projected to be the best in baseball by most projection systems. Here’s how the primary starting lineup looked on a per game basis using their pre-season CAIRO projections for offense and defense.

Player (projected)	Pos	PA	OBP	Outs	BR	RS
Derek Jeter	SS	5.0	.371	3.1	0.69	-0.03
Nick Johnson	DH	5.0	.412	2.9	0.73	0.00
Mark Teixeira	1B	5.0	.379	3.1	0.84	0.02
Alex Rodriguez	3B	5.0	.389	3.1	0.89	-0.03
Robinson Cano	2B	5.0	.348	3.3	0.73	0.00
Jorge Posada	C	5.0	.352	3.2	0.70	-0.03
Curtis Granderson	CF	4.6	.338	3.0	0.64	0.04
Nick Swisher	RF	4.0	.355	2.6	0.55	0.00
Brett Gardner	LF	4.0	.348	2.6	0.48	0.02
Total		42.6		27.0	6.25	-0.01

PA: # of PA in a single game
OBP:projected OBP
Outs: Outs made at the plate, equals PA times (1 minus OBP)
BR: Linear weights batting runs for listed PA

Here’s how the primary lineup has actually performed so far.

Player (actual)	Pos	PA	OBP	Outs	BR	RS
Derek Jeter	SS	5.0	.324	3.4	0.63	-0.10
Nick Johnson	DH	5.0	.388	3.1	0.57	-0.03
Mark Teixeira	1B	5.0	.336	3.3	0.61	0.06
Alex Rodriguez	3B	5.0	.381	3.1	0.73	0.05
Robinson Cano	2B	5.0	.406	3.0	1.01	0.04
Jorge Posada	C	5.0	.365	3.2	0.84	-0.06
Curtis Granderson	CF	4.6	.311	3.2	0.52	0.10
Nick Swisher	RF	4.0	.394	2.4	0.73	-0.02
Brett Gardner	LF	4.0	.418	2.3	0.66	0.10
Total		42.6		26.9	6.30	0.14

In actuality, despite poor starts by several players, the primary starting lineup has actually exceeded those projections slightly so far this season, with the better than expected play by Robinson Cano, Jorge Posada and Nick Swisher making up for the poorer than expected play by Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter. They’ve also been better defensively thanks to better than expected play by Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano primarily.

The problem is that the desired primary starting lineup is not the lineup that the Yankees can run out there right now with Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson on the shelf. While Granderson should be back relatively soon, Nick Johnson plus wrist injury is not something I’d expect a speedy return from.

We also have more information after 31 games which we can use to revise our pre-season projections somewhat, although the sample size is still small enough that the pre-season projections should still be the bulk of what we expect going forward.

If we assume that Joe Girardi has finally figured out that Marcus Thames in LF is not an option, here’s how the Yankees’ primary lineup at this point in time would project going forward.

Player (revised projection)	Pos	PA	OBP	Outs	BR	RS
Derek Jeter	SS	5.0	.366	3.2	0.68	-0.03
Brett Gardner	CF	5.0	.355	3.2	0.62	0.08
Mark Teixeira	1B	5.0	.375	3.1	0.82	0.03
Alex Rodriguez	3B	5.0	.388	3.1	0.87	-0.02
Robinson Cano	2B	5.0	.354	3.2	0.76	0.00
Jorge Posada	C	4.8	.353	3.1	0.69	-0.04
Nick Swisher	RF	4.0	.359	2.6	0.57	0.00
Marcus Thames	DH	4.0	.300	2.8	0.49	0.00
Randy Winn	LF	4.0	.314	2.7	0.42	0.06
Total		41.8		27.0	5.92	0.07

If we use the Yankees’ current RA against of 3.88 with the original projected starting lineup, we get a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .715, or 116 wins. If you instead use the revised projections of the current starting lineup, you get a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .700. That’s 113 wins. The problem here is this alignment projects that Gardner in CF and Winn in LF is a better defensive alignment than Gardner in LF and Granderson in CF, and I think that’s overrating Winn and underrating Gardner in LF. I don’t think it’s more than a wash, which makes it more like a .693/112 win team. Even factoring that in, over a subset of n games where n is only a portion of 162 games, that’s not really that big of a difference. Maybe a win or two? If Nick Johnson is out for the year, a Juan Miranda/Thames DH platoon is probably a bit better than straight Thames as well.

Now obviously, you’re not going to get 162 games out of your starting lineup, so we have to temper those 100+ win estimates down to a more reasonable estimate, but I’m just looking at the delta for now. We also need to assume that moving some of the bench guys to the starting lineup also weakens the bench somewhat. We also can’t assume the Yankees will maintain a 3.88 RA going forward. I don’t have time to do a detailed breakdown of the pitching, but I’ll summarize it. Right now I’d project them to end the season at 709 runs allowed, an overall RA against of 4.38, which means an RA of around 4.53 going forward. That’s assuming some regression by the starters, which is bad for four of the five, but good for the fifth starter who will not be named. It’s also based on improvement by the bullpen, and it’s an overall improvement of about 20 runs from their pre-season runs allowed projection. If that’s the case, the primary lineup would be more like a 108 win team, with the currently revised and re-projected lineup being more like a 104 win team, again with the caveat that we need to temper that down to account for the bench and possible future injuries.

Right now, the Yankees are still about five wins ahead of their original projected pace according to my Monte Carlo simulator. They are projected at 101.6 wins, and with a 48.4% chance at the division and a 79.7% chance at the postseason, which is the best probability of any team. Actually, here’s the whole list.

Team	W	pW	w+/-	ppo%	opo%
Yankees	101.6	96.1	5.5	79.7%	63.0%
Cardinals	95.3	90.6	4.7	72.8%	50.9%
Rays	99.4	91.2	8.1	72.4%	46.1%
Phillies	94.5	89.7	4.8	67.2%	48.0%
Twins	89.8	83.1	6.7	61.0%	34.8%
Rangers	86.9	84.4	2.5	52.0%	38.9%
Giants	86.2	81.1	5.1	37.9%	23.3%
Red Sox	88.8	92.9	-4.1	31.6%	53.0%
Rockies	84.1	83.8	0.3	29.4%	30.3%
Athletics	81.7	79.2	2.5	28.6%	23.8%
Braves	84.5	88.3	-3.8	28.0%	42.9%
Padres	82.5	75.9	6.6	26.0%	13.2%
Tigers	81.7	77.9	3.8	25.1%	19.9%
Dodgers	82.0	86.3	-4.3	23.7%	38.5%
Brewers	81.6	81.6	0.0	21.2%	23.5%
Reds	81.6	80.6	1.0	20.0%	21.3%
Mets	80.5	76.1	4.4	18.4%	13.0%
Cubs	80.2	83.1	-2.9	17.7%	27.2%
Mariners	76.0	81.4	-5.4	13.6%	29.4%
Nationals	78.0	74.8	3.2	12.9%	11.1%
Angels	74.3	78.0	-3.7	12.5%	21.6%
Marlins	77.6	80.0	-2.4	11.6%	19.3%
White Sox	75.4	79.8	-4.4	11.3%	24.8%
Diamondbacks	76.7	82.2	-5.5	10.3%	25.6%
Indians	74.0	79.9	-5.9	7.5%	25.4%
Royals	67.8	71.5	-3.7	3.0%	9.3%
Pirates	68.5	72.3	-3.8	2.4%	7.6%
Blue Jays	70.6	65.1	5.5	1.4%	1.9%
Orioles	66.7	74.6	-7.9	0.6%	8.3%
Astros	61.5	68.8	-7.3	0.5%	4.4%

pW: Re-projected wins
opW: Original projected wins
pW+/-:pW - opW

So I guess my initial assertion that the Yankees at this moment aren’t as good as they projected to be is technically true, but not significantly so. Apparently a two-game losing streak doesn’t mean it’s time to panic.

--Posted at 10:02 am by SG / 46 Comments | - (0)

Friday, April 30, 2010

Monte Carlo Wins and Postseason Odds Report through Games of April 29, 2010

It’s been a week since I last ran these, so here’s an updated look at the estimated wins and playoff probabilities.

Team	pW	opW	pW+/-	gain/loss
Rays	98.7	91.2	7.5	0.7
Mets	81.0	76.1	4.9	3.8
Padres	80.3	75.9	4.4	2.2
Cardinals	94.5	90.6	3.9	0.7
Twins	86.8	83.1	3.7	-0.8
Yankees	99.1	96.1	3.0	-1.1
Tigers	80.2	77.9	2.3	1.9
Giants	83.2	81.1	2.1	0.8
Athletics	81.3	79.2	2.1	-1.6
Nationals	76.6	74.8	1.8	1.5
Phillies	91.2	89.7	1.5	-2.7
Rockies	84.8	83.8	1.0	-0.5
Blue Jays	65.7	65.1	0.6	-1.6
Mariners	81.5	81.4	0.1	-1.0
Reds	80.4	80.6	-0.2	1.7
Diamondbacks	81.9	82.2	-0.3	3.0
Angels	77.5	78.0	-0.5	1.0
Cubs	82.0	83.1	-1.1	1.2
Rangers	83.2	84.4	-1.2	-0.6
Marlins	78.7	80.0	-1.3	-1.0
Indians	78.2	79.9	-1.7	-0.8
Pirates	70.1	72.3	-2.2	1.5
Brewers	79.2	81.6	-2.4	-5.5
Red Sox	90.4	92.9	-2.5	3.0
Astros	66.2	68.8	-2.6	1.0
White Sox	77.2	79.8	-2.6	2.5
Royals	68.3	71.5	-3.2	-1.7
Dodgers	81.6	86.3	-4.7	-3.9
Braves	83.4	88.3	-4.9	-4.1
Orioles	67.0	74.6	-7.6	0.4

pW: Re-projected wins
opW: Original projected wins
pW+/-:pW - opW
gain/loss change from prior run

I’ve added a new column which shows the change from the prior run. So pW+/- shows the change from the pre-season projections, and gain/loss shows the change from the last time these were run. Taking the Yankees as an example, they’re still three wins ahead of their originally projected win total, but their estimated win total dropped by about a win since the last time these were run.

The Rays are still the team that’s furthest ahead of where they were projected, but when we projected them coming into the season we assumed incorrectly that the league would not roll over for them. I’m calling on Bud Selig for an investigation. And break up the Mets, this week’s biggest gainers.

Looking at it in terms of playoff probabilities:

Team	ppo%	opo%	po%+/-	gain/loss
Rays	70.6%	46.1%	24.5%	0.7%
Cardinals	68.6%	50.9%	17.7%	4.8%
Twins	46.8%	34.8%	12.0%	-2.4%
Phillies	56.8%	48.0%	8.8%	-6.0%
Yankees	71.8%	63.0%	8.8%	-4.8%
Mets	20.8%	13.0%	7.8%	8.7%
Padres	20.3%	13.2%	7.1%	5.9%
Giants	28.8%	23.3%	5.5%	3.3%
Athletics	28.0%	23.8%	4.2%	-4.1%
Rockies	34.0%	30.3%	3.7%	-1.4%
Tigers	23.2%	19.9%	3.3%	2.8%
Nationals	12.0%	11.1%	0.9%	1.8%
Diamondbacks	24.7%	25.6%	-0.9%	7.9%
Blue Jays	1.0%	1.9%	-0.9%	-0.5%
Mariners	28.0%	29.4%	-1.4%	-1.4%
Reds	19.3%	21.3%	-2.0%	4.2%
Astros	1.8%	4.4%	-2.6%	0.2%
Marlins	16.2%	19.3%	-3.1%	0.1%
Pirates	4.2%	7.6%	-3.4%	1.1%
Angels	17.9%	21.6%	-3.7%	1.0%
Cubs	23.5%	27.2%	-3.7%	3.8%
Rangers	34.8%	38.9%	-4.1%	1.5%
Royals	4.4%	9.3%	-4.9%	-2.0%
Brewers	16.8%	23.5%	-6.7%	-12.7%
Indians	18.2%	25.4%	-7.2%	-3.3%
Orioles	1.0%	8.3%	-7.3%	-0.2%
White Sox	15.9%	24.8%	-8.9%	4.4%
Dodgers	24.2%	38.5%	-14.3%	-10.5%
Red Sox	38.4%	53.0%	-14.6%	8.3%
Braves	27.9%	42.9%	-15.0%	-11.3%

ppo%: Re-projected probability of making playoffs
opo%: Original projected probability of making the playoffs
po%+/-:ppo% - opo% (increase or decrease in playoff probability)
gain/loss change from prior run

I preferred the version of this chart that had Boston at the bottom.

The Yankees are still ahead of their pre-season projections, but lost some ground this week. Here’s how the division races shape up at this point.

Date	4/30/2010
Iterations	10000
American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC
Yankees	99.1	62.9	883	717	42.5%	29.4%
Rays	98.7	63.3	822	684	41.2%	29.4%
Red Sox	90.4	71.6	817	699	15.9%	22.5%
Blue Jays	67.0	95.0	746	819	0.2%	0.8%
Orioles	65.7	96.3	684	819	0.2%	0.8%
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC
Twins	86.8	75.2	827	804	44.3%	2.5%
Tigers	80.2	81.8	743	780	21.0%	2.2%
Indians	78.2	83.8	784	814	16.3%	2.0%
White Sox	77.2	84.8	739	773	14.4%	1.5%
Royals	68.3	93.7	719	826	4.0%	0.5%
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC
Rangers	83.2	78.8	781	754	32.6%	2.1%
Angels	81.5	80.5	717	703	25.4%	2.6%
Athletics	81.3	80.7	729	725	25.7%	2.4%
Mariners	77.5	84.5	756	788	16.4%	1.5%
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC
Phillies	91.2	70.8	825	725	47.2%	9.6%
Marlins	83.4	78.6	760	709	19.7%	8.2%
Mets	81.0	81.0	772	788	14.4%	6.5%
Braves	78.7	83.3	752	773	10.8%	5.4%
Nationals	76.6	85.4	714	779	7.9%	4.2%
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC
Cardinals	94.5	67.5	751	668	59.8%	8.8%
Cubs	82.0	80.0	739	727	14.9%	8.6%
Brewers	80.4	81.6	728	743	11.8%	7.6%
Reds	79.2	82.8	765	769	10.0%	6.8%
Astros	70.1	91.9	683	799	2.5%	1.7%
Pirates	66.2	95.8	655	785	1.1%	0.6%
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC
Rockies	84.8	77.2	784	742	26.5%	7.5%
Padres	83.2	78.8	701	693	22.3%	6.5%
Giants	81.9	80.1	743	724	18.4%	6.4%
Dodgers	81.6	80.4	759	715	18.1%	6.1%
Diamondbacks	80.3	81.7	673	708	14.8%	5.5%

W: Projected 2010 wins
L: Projected 2010 losses
RS: Projected 2010 runs scored
RA: Projected 2010 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage

At this point the Yanks and Rays are effectively in a dead heat.

--Posted at 7:43 am by SG / 33 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Monte Carlo Wins and Postseason Odds Report through Games of April 22, 2010

Using the same methodology as in this post, but I’ve increased the weight of 2010 actual performance to 10% for the teams going forward projections.

First up, here’s how teams’ win projections have changed from their pre-season projections.

Team	pW	opW	pW+/-
Rays	98.0	91.2	6.8
Twins	87.6	83.1	4.5
Phillies	93.9	89.7	4.2
Yankees	100.2	96.1	4.1
Athletics	82.9	79.2	3.7
Cardinals	93.8	90.6	3.2
Brewers	84.7	81.6	3.1
Blue Jays	67.3	65.1	2.2
Padres	78.1	75.9	2.2
Rockies	85.3	83.8	1.5
Giants	82.4	81.1	1.3
Mariners	82.5	81.4	1.1
Mets	77.2	76.1	1.1
Tigers	78.3	77.9	0.4
Nationals	75.1	74.8	0.3
Marlins	79.7	80.0	-0.3
Rangers	83.8	84.4	-0.6
Braves	87.5	88.3	-0.8
Dodgers	85.5	86.3	-0.8
Indians	79.0	79.9	-0.9
Royals	70.0	71.5	-1.5
Angels	76.5	78.0	-1.5
Reds	78.7	80.6	-1.9
Cubs	80.8	83.1	-2.3
Diamondbacks	78.9	82.2	-3.3
Astros	65.2	68.8	-3.6
Pirates	68.6	72.3	-3.7
White Sox	74.7	79.8	-5.1
Red Sox	87.4	92.9	-5.5
Orioles	66.6	74.6	-8.0

pW: Re-projected wins
opW: Original projected wins
pW+/-:pW - opW

Break up the Rays! Seriously. They scare me.

And what those changes in win forecasts mean for the teams’ chances at making the postseason:

Team	ppo%	opo%	po%+/-
Rays	69.9%	46.1%	23.8%
Phillies	62.8%	48.0%	14.8%
Twins	49.2%	34.8%	14.4%
Yankees	76.6%	63.0%	13.6%
Cardinals	63.8%	50.9%	12.9%
Athletics	32.1%	23.8%	8.3%
Brewers	29.5%	23.5%	6.0%
Rockies	35.4%	30.3%	5.1%
Giants	25.5%	23.3%	2.2%
Padres	14.4%	13.2%	1.2%
Tigers	20.4%	19.9%	0.5%
Mariners	29.4%	29.4%	0.0%
Blue Jays	1.5%	1.9%	-0.5%
Mets	12.1%	13.0%	-0.9%
Nationals	10.2%	11.1%	-0.9%
Astros	1.6%	4.4%	-2.8%
Royals	6.4%	9.3%	-2.9%
Marlins	16.1%	19.3%	-3.2%
Braves	39.2%	42.9%	-3.7%
Dodgers	34.7%	38.5%	-3.8%
Indians	21.5%	25.4%	-3.9%
Pirates	3.1%	7.6%	-4.5%
Angels	16.9%	21.6%	-4.7%
Rangers	33.3%	38.9%	-5.6%
Reds	15.1%	21.3%	-6.2%
Orioles	1.2%	8.3%	-7.1%
Cubs	19.7%	27.2%	-7.5%
Diamondbacks	16.8%	25.6%	-8.8%
White Sox	11.5%	24.8%	-13.4%
Red Sox	30.1%	53.0%	-22.9%

ppo%: Re-projected probability of making playoffs
opo%: Original projected probability of making the playoffs
po%+/-:ppo% - opo% (increase or decrease in playoff probability)

As long as the Red Sox stay at the bottom of this list, I will be a happy man.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled complaint thread.

--Posted at 10:37 pm by SG / 46 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, April 18, 2010

What Does What’s Happened So Far in 2010 Tell Us? (Re-visited)

With another Yankee win and Red Sox loss in the books, I figured I’d run another set of Monte Carlo simulations using the same methodology as in this post.

Team	pW	opW	pW+/-
Twins	87.4	83.1	4.3
Athletics	83.4	79.2	4.2
Rays	95.3	91.2	4.1
Giants	84.9	81.1	3.8
Phillies	93.1	89.7	3.4
Yankees	99.5	96.1	3.4
Cardinals	92.3	90.6	1.7
Blue Jays	66.3	65.1	1.2
Pirates	73.1	72.3	0.8
Tigers	78.6	77.9	0.7
Rockies	84.5	83.8	0.7
Braves	88.8	88.3	0.5
Marlins	80.5	80.0	0.5
Padres	76.3	75.9	0.4
Mets	76.1	76.1	0.0
Indians	79.5	79.9	-0.4
Mariners	80.9	81.4	-0.5
Dodgers	85.7	86.3	-0.6
Nationals	74.1	74.8	-0.7
Royals	70.8	71.5	-0.7
Cubs	82.3	83.1	-0.8
Rangers	83.5	84.4	-0.9
Diamondbacks	81.1	82.2	-1.1
Reds	78.7	80.6	-1.9
Angels	76.0	78.0	-2.0
Brewers	79.5	81.6	-2.1
White Sox	76.7	79.8	-3.1
Red Sox	88.8	92.9	-4.1
Astros	64.2	68.8	-4.6
Orioles	68.3	74.6	-6.3

pW: Re-projected wins
opW: Original projected wins
pW+/-:pW - opW

Team	ppo%	opo%	po%+/-
Rays	60.4%	46.1%	14.3%
Twins	47.9%	34.8%	13.1%
Phillies	59.4%	48.0%	11.4%
Yankees	73.9%	63.0%	10.9%
Athletics	34.4%	23.8%	10.6%
Giants	32.5%	23.3%	9.2%
Cardinals	59.9%	50.9%	9.0%
Braves	44.1%	42.9%	1.2%
Rockies	31.2%	30.3%	0.9%
Tigers	20.1%	19.9%	0.2%
Pirates	7.5%	7.6%	-0.1%
Blue Jays	1.6%	1.9%	-0.3%
Marlins	18.6%	19.3%	-0.7%
Padres	11.3%	13.2%	-1.9%
Mariners	27.1%	29.4%	-2.3%
Royals	7.0%	9.3%	-2.3%
Cubs	24.5%	27.2%	-2.7%
Mets	10.1%	13.0%	-2.9%
Astros	1.4%	4.4%	-3.0%
Dodgers	35.3%	38.5%	-3.2%
Nationals	7.8%	11.1%	-3.3%
Rangers	35.5%	38.9%	-3.4%
Indians	21.8%	25.4%	-3.6%
Diamondbacks	21.5%	25.6%	-4.1%
Reds	16.5%	21.3%	-4.8%
Brewers	18.3%	23.5%	-5.2%
Orioles	2.3%	8.3%	-6.0%
Angels	15.3%	21.6%	-6.3%
White Sox	15.8%	24.8%	-9.0%
Red Sox	36.9%	53.0%	-16.1%

ppo%: Re-projected probability of making playoffs
opo%: Original projected probability of making the playoffs
po%+/-:ppo% - opo% (increase or decrease in playoff probability)

By winning two more games than they should have against Boston in Fenway, the Rays have jumped past the Twins as the team who’s improved their playoff probabilites the most. Boston loses a few more percentage points, because they should have taken two of three from Tampa Bay at home, instead of losing all three.

Like the Rays, the Yankees picked up another few percentage points on their playoff chances as well. We’ll have to see if they can sustain this pace with the dreaded West Coast trip coming up. I’ll put up an updated log5 look at the West Coast swing later on Monday.

--Posted at 11:18 pm by SG / 77 Comments | - (0)

What Does What’s Happened So Far in 2010 Tell Us?

Although the MLB season is only about 6% complete, we can look at what’s happened to this point combined with what was projected to happen and see what’s changed.

Now obviously, it’s too soon to think that how a team has played to this point is representative of how they should be expected to play going forward, but games have actually been won and lost so far, and adding that to the expectations going foward can be informative, which is the purpose of this post.

To do this, I’ve run 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations for the rest of the season which weigh the aggregate results of the 2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout as 95% of a team’s going-forward projection combined with 5% of a team’s YTD actual performance in terms of runs scored and runs allowed. The results of that get added to the team’s actual win/loss total so far to get a new revised win projection. We can then look at which team’s fortunes have changed the most.

First, here’s a list of the teams sorted in descending order based on how many additional games they would project to win now.

Team	pW	opW	pW+/-
Twins	88.9	83.1	5.8
Athletics	84.1	79.2	4.9
Giants	85.2	81.1	4.1
Phillies	93.6	89.7	3.9
Rays	94.4	91.2	3.2
Yankees	98.8	96.1	2.7
Blue Jays	67.1	65.1	2.0
Cardinals	92.4	90.6	1.8
Rockies	85.4	83.8	1.6
Marlins	80.7	80.0	0.7
Mariners	81.7	81.4	0.3
Rangers	84.5	84.4	0.1
Pirates	72.4	72.3	0.1
Cubs	83.2	83.1	0.1
Braves	88.2	88.3	-0.1
Padres	75.6	75.9	-0.3
Nationals	74.5	74.8	-0.3
Tigers	77.5	77.9	-0.4
Diamondbacks	81.8	82.2	-0.4
Mets	75.6	76.1	-0.5
Reds	79.8	80.6	-0.8
Indians	79.1	79.9	-0.8
Royals	70.0	71.5	-1.5
Dodgers	84.6	86.3	-1.7
Red Sox	90.3	92.9	-2.6
Brewers	78.9	81.6	-2.7
White Sox	76.6	79.8	-3.2
Angels	74.7	78.0	-3.3
Astros	63.2	68.8	-5.6
Orioles	67.4	74.6	-7.2

pW: Re-projected wins
opW: Original projected wins
pW+/-: pW - opW

So far, the Twins performance combined with how they’d project to do going forward shows an increase of six wins. It doesn’t necessarily mean they’ve been lucky, it could also mean their projections were wrong. More likely, the truth lies somewhere in the middle of those two extremes.

Other teams of interest to us as AL East fans are the Rays and Red Sox. The Rays have picked up three games on their projections and now look like the favorites for the wild card. While I do still think Boston’s a good team, they’d now have to be four games better than the Yankees and Rays to catch them. That doesn’t mean they can’t do it, especially with all the head-to-head games they have remaining, it’s just something that looks like it will be difficult to do on virtual paper.

Looking around the rest of the league briefly, we see the Athletics, Giants, Phillies and Cardinals joining the Yanks and Twins as the biggest gainers in each division.

We can also look at these results in terms of how each team’s probability of making the playoffs has changed, so here’s that list.

Team	ppo%	opo%	po%+/-
Twins	53.5%	34.8%	18.7%
Phillies	59.7%	48.0%	11.7%
Athletics	33.7%	23.8%	9.9%
Rays	56.0%	46.1%	9.9%
Giants	32.4%	23.3%	9.1%
Cardinals	59.7%	50.9%	8.8%
Yankees	70.9%	63.0%	7.9%
Rockies	32.3%	30.3%	2.0%
Cubs	27.5%	27.2%	0.3%
Blue Jays	1.9%	1.9%	0.0%
Mariners	29.4%	29.4%	0.0%
Marlins	18.8%	19.3%	-0.5%
Pirates	7.1%	7.6%	-0.5%
Braves	41.2%	42.9%	-1.7%
Rangers	37.1%	38.9%	-1.9%
Reds	19.4%	21.3%	-1.9%
Padres	10.7%	13.2%	-2.5%
Mets	10.4%	13.0%	-2.6%
Royals	6.6%	9.3%	-2.7%
Tigers	16.6%	19.9%	-3.3%
Astros	1.1%	4.4%	-3.3%
Diamondbacks	22.1%	25.6%	-3.5%
Nationals	7.6%	11.1%	-3.5%
Dodgers	34.8%	38.5%	-3.7%
Indians	20.5%	25.4%	-4.9%
Orioles	1.9%	8.3%	-6.4%
Brewers	15.2%	23.5%	-8.3%
White Sox	16.3%	24.8%	-8.5%
Angels	12.4%	21.6%	-9.2%
Red Sox	43.1%	53.0%	-9.9%

ppo%: Re-projected probability of making playoffs
opo%: Original projected probability of making the playoffs
po%+/-: ppo% - opo% (increase or decrease in playoff probability)

The Twins have made the biggest gain in likelihood of making the postseason. I’ll admit, it doesn’t upset me to see the Anaheim Angels and Red Sox with the biggest drops to this point.

--Posted at 9:12 am by SG / 13 Comments | - (0)

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