Thursday, December 6, 2012
NESN: Report: Brian Cashman Lacked Authority to Make Free-Agent Offers at Winter Meetings
The winter meetings — and the baseball offseason in general — has normally been a place where the Yankees have reigned supreme. If there was a free agent they wanted or needed, they got that free agent, money be damned.
The times, though, they are a changing.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Yankees general manager Brian Cashman went to the winter meetings in Nashville this week lacking the authority to make any sort of deals to free agents. New York reportedly offered Kevin Youkilis a one-year deal eventually, but that was only after Cashman was able to gain approval from Yankees ownership.
Agent Scott Boras hinted earlier in the week that Cashman was being held back. “He had indicated that right now, he’s working with ownership on getting advance authority,” Boras said, according to the Journal. “He really is not involved in a lot of dealing right now, but is doing due diligence to go back and meet with them about that.”
Why would a GM need authority to make free agent offers anyway?
A lot of people are getting mad at Cashman, but if you are going to get mad you probably need to shift your attention to the guys who tell him what to do. Hal Steinbrenner has every right to operate his team the way he wants, and fans have the right to not support the product if they don’t like it.
So who should our new team be? I need an hour or so to change the underlying assumptions and components in CAIRO to make them look better.
Monday, November 5, 2012
Fox Sports: Recession? Not in Scott Boras’ world
“If the Yankees didn’t sign Soriano, they wouldn’t have won the AL East,” Boras said flatly. “This is the value of depth. If the Yankees signed Soriano (after the 2010 season) when Rivera was 40 and healthy, why wouldn’t you sign Soriano when Rivera is 42 and coming off knee surgery?
“The issue for the Yankees is winning. The reason they signed Soriano two years ago is that they are about winning and depth. It proved true. When Mariano Rivera went down, Soriano became one of the top two or three closers in the game.
“When you know Mariano Rivera will be there for only one more year — at his age, coming off an injury — you can’t expect him to be what he was two years ago. There is a need there. You want to secure a great talent for future years. Soriano has proven he can be effective in New York. The team knows more about him. His value has gone higher.”
I get the sense Soriano’s in for a rude awakening on the offers he’s going to get. Then again, his value won’t be any higher than it is right now. My guess is he won’t get anything more than 3 yrs/$30M from someone. Obviously that’s an extra $17M he wouldn’t have had if he didn’t opt out, but at a much lower rate per season than he has gotten accustomed to.
I would be shocked if the Yankees even consider bringing back Soriano at this point, although with Randy Levine around who knows? I’m just hoping Soriano doesn’t accept the qualifying offer. While having him back for one year isn’t a bad thing, I’d rather have the draft pick and the $13.3M to spend on Russell Martin’s five year, $50M extension.
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
NY Times: Yankees’ Offense and Lead Are Slipping, and Now Teixeira Is Injured
On Monday, they lost to the Baltimore Orioles, 5-4, allowing a rookie pitcher to subdue them for nearly seven innings while failing to come up with enough clutch hits in the end. It was the Yankees’ eighth loss in 11 games.
And the slide could get more slippery with another injury: first baseman Mark Teixeira left the game in the seventh with an injury to his left wrist after diving for a ground ball.
Teixeira said he initially tweaked the wrist Sunday during a swing against Boston’s Felix Doubront. He wore a protective sleeve over it Monday, but the dive worsened the injury.
Aside from that, it’s all good in Yankee land.
Here’s an interesting fact. On May 21, the Yankees were 21-21. Since July 19 they are 3-8. If you add those together you get 24-29. If you focus only on those 53 games and ignore the other 49 they’ve played (the ones where they went 36-13) they’re effectively a 73 win true talent team. So yeah, they are terrible. Awful. DFA everyone.
Or maybe they’re a good team going through a bad spell and people should calm the F down.
Monday, July 30, 2012
TGS NY: Bobby V: Yanks could miss playoffs
And then Valentine raised the prospect of the Yanks falling apart, a bigger longshot than the prospect of Boston overcoming an absurd rash of injuries and rallying over the final two months to earn one of two available wild cards.
Valentine wasn’t interested in talking about wild cards. When it was suggested Boston might be a liberated team in the postseason, a team feeling no pressure entering a sudden-death shootout, Valentine said, “But then again, we might win the division. Who knows?”
The division? The same division keeping the Red Sox in last place?
“Oh yeah,” Valentine said.
Not the wild card?
“I haven’t looked at it that way,” he answered. “No, no. ... We play a lot of games against the Yankees.”
The link plays a video so don’t click on it if you don’t want to see it.
I think as much as we hate to admit it, Valentine is right. No team that entered a series with an 11 game lead on a team and exited it with a 10 game lead with 61 games remaining has ever been able to hold on to such a slim lead.
The one advantage the Yankees have is that other teams don’t have the fearsome Pedro Ciriaco DHing for them. So maybe they can win a few more games against other teams.
Anyway, crappy series, but not a realistic cause for concern. Yes, the Yankees and the Red Sox play nine more times this year, but even if the Yankees win just one-third of those (like they just did) Boston has to outplay them by seven games over their other 52/51games respectively just to tie. The Yankees can probably win at least three of those Boston games that if they keep CC Sabathia off the mound in those nine games. So if the Yankees then went 27-25 over their 52 non-Boston games ( a winning percentage of 51.9%), Boston would have to win 33 of their final 51 (a winning percentage of 64.7%).
I’m not saying it couldn’t happen, because it could. But I am still not concerned about it.
Sunday, March 18, 2012
WaPo: Boswell: Phillies’ toughest opponent might be Father Time
Baseball must despise a sure thing. The Phils are still a sane pick to be in the World Series. But they also might not even win their own division. With a speed that is chilling, the gap between the Phils and the rest of the NL East — much less all of baseball — has shrunk to the point where this season, or very soon, the young, rising Braves, Nationals and Marlins, or all three of them, may be on the Phils’ aging heels.
I want to take a trip down memory lane.
“Texas probably finished second to be honest with you. Just as far as the quality of the team and the chance to win a World Series ring, I think they’re a better team. That’s just my opinion. The Yankees can do anything at any moment to improve and they’re not afraid to go do things. That was part of the decision making process too,
Durp.
but I felt like with what the Red Sox had done and it seems like some of the Yankee guys are getting older, but I liked the Rangers.”
Double durp.
If I sum up age times PA and age times batters faced divided by PA + BF for all teams using my current depth charts for 2012, here’s the average age by team.
PHI: 30.5
NYA: 30.1
STL: 29.3
LAA: 28.9
BOS: 28.6
MIN: 28.6
OAK: 28.4
COL: 28.3
LAD: 28.2
MIL: 28.1
CHN: 28.1
PIT: 27.9
TEX: 27.9
NYN: 27.9
SF: 27.7
MIA: 27.6
TB: 27.6
HOU: 27.5
CLE: 27.4
BAL: 27.4
CHA: 27.4
SEA: 27.2
SD: 27.1
ARI: 27.0
CIN: 27.0
DET: 27.0
WAS: 26.9
TOR: 26.6
ATL: 26.5
KC: 26.0
Triple durp.
Here are CAIRO’s up to the minute projections for each of the three teams that were in contention for Cliff Lee’s services.
NYA: 96-66
TEX: 93-69
PHI 91-71
Quadruple durp.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Montreal Gazette: Pirates still out front in A.J. Burnett sweepstakes
Yes, the Montreal Gazette. I am going international in the quest to know the very latest on this critical situation and will leave no stone unturned.
A source said Tuesday that the Indians and Angels checked in about Burnett, with Cleveland offering Travis Hafner as part of its proposal. The source said the Angels made what the Yankees considered to be an “even better offer,” but Burnett has a limited no-trade clause that lists 10 teams, including the Angels.
I wonder who the Angels offered? I’d assume Jeff Mathis but he was traded, so it must be someone of that ilk. Vernon Wells maybe?
Saturday, January 28, 2012
Still Too Early 2012 MLB Standings Projection
Instead of running these with CAIRO this time I used Marcel, mainly out of curiosity in seeing what an unbiased projection that was not created to make the Yankees look better than they are would say.
It says this.
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% | |||||||||||||
| AL East | NYA | 92 | 70 | 785 | 682 | 45.3% | 20.3% | 10.4% | 76.0% | |||||||||||||
| AL East | BOS | 90 | 72 | 830 | 750 | 27.9% | 26.1% | 10.8% | 64.8% | |||||||||||||
| AL East | TAM | 88 | 74 | 717 | 646 | 23.7% | 21.2% | 12.2% | 57.1% | |||||||||||||
| AL East | TOR | 81 | 81 | 723 | 727 | 3.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 16.7% | |||||||||||||
| AL East | BAL | 70 | 92 | 694 | 806 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | |||||||||||||
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% | |||||||||||||
| AL Central | DET | 84 | 78 | 747 | 708 | 43.0% | 2.4% | 10.1% | 55.4% | |||||||||||||
| AL Central | CLE | 83 | 79 | 722 | 708 | 30.6% | 2.9% | 7.8% | 41.3% | |||||||||||||
| AL Central | CHA | 79 | 83 | 686 | 703 | 15.2% | 1.5% | 4.2% | 20.9% | |||||||||||||
| AL Central | KC | 79 | 83 | 691 | 714 | 10.8% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 16.9% | |||||||||||||
| AL Central | MIN | 68 | 94 | 693 | 813 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | |||||||||||||
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% | |||||||||||||
| AL West | LAA | 87 | 75 | 719 | 663 | 43.7% | 6.1% | 11.4% | 61.2% | |||||||||||||
| AL West | TEX | 87 | 75 | 765 | 707 | 38.2% | 6.9% | 13.4% | 58.6% | |||||||||||||
| AL West | OAK | 82 | 80 | 682 | 674 | 14.9% | 3.1% | 7.4% | 25.3% | |||||||||||||
| AL West | SEA | 76 | 86 | 649 | 689 | 3.2% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 5.5% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| NL East | PHI | 90 | 72 | 689 | 615 | 44.8% | 16.5% | 10.7% | 72.0% |
| NL East | ATL | 89 | 73 | 668 | 608 | 38.2% | 19.2% | 9.9% | 67.3% |
| NL East | WAS | 83 | 79 | 645 | 634 | 10.8% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 29.2% |
| NL East | FLA | 80 | 82 | 682 | 690 | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 16.3% |
| NL East | NYN | 74 | 88 | 630 | 680 | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 3.2% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| NL Central | CIN | 89 | 73 | 719 | 647 | 60.4% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 79.7% |
| NL Central | STL | 84 | 78 | 708 | 681 | 24.6% | 10.7% | 7.0% | 42.2% |
| NL Central | MIL | 81 | 81 | 678 | 672 | 13.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 27.5% |
| NL Central | PIT | 72 | 90 | 657 | 732 | 1.6% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 2.8% |
| NL Central | CHN | 70 | 92 | 668 | 761 | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% |
| NL Central | HOU | 66 | 96 | 617 | 749 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| NL West | COL | 85 | 77 | 749 | 711 | 32.1% | 6.4% | 10.9% | 49.4% |
| NL West | ARI | 85 | 77 | 685 | 656 | 30.8% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 48.9% |
| NL West | SF | 85 | 77 | 629 | 606 | 29.6% | 5.4% | 11.3% | 46.3% |
| NL West | LAN | 76 | 86 | 618 | 659 | 4.1% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 8.2% |
| NL West | SD | 75 | 87 | 608 | 653 | 3.4% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 6.4% |
Div: Percent of time team won division
WC 1: Percent of time team won first wild card
WC 2: Percent of time team won second wild card
We still don’t know if there will be a second wild card yet, so you can chop off that column and subtract that percentage from the team’s over playoff percentage.
Because Marcel regresses more heavily than other projections and because it assumes every one who hasn’t played in MLB projects as league average, you see a tighter spread here than you’ll see in other projected standings. The standard deviation for team wins in my last CAIRO projections was about 9. In this version it’s 7.1. That may be more realistic if you think about how little we really know about how good/bad players and teams are, even though what will actually happen in 2012 will show a much bigger spread more in line with other projected standings.
Here are the average win totals for the placings in each division and for the two wild cards.
| Div | Place | Avg W |
| AL East | 1 | 96 |
| AL East | 2 | 91 |
| AL East | 3 | 86 |
| AL East | 4 | 80 |
| AL East | 5 | 69 |
| Div | Avg W | |
| AL Central | 1 | 89 |
| AL Central | 2 | 83 |
| AL Central | 3 | 79 |
| AL Central | 4 | 75 |
| AL Central | 5 | 67 |
| Div | Avg W | |
| AL West | 1 | 92 |
| AL West | 2 | 86 |
| AL West | 3 | 81 |
| AL West | 4 | 74 |
| AL WC 1 | 91 | |
| AL WC2 | 88 | |
| Div | Avg W | |
| NL East | 1 | 94 |
| NL East | 2 | 88 |
| NL East | 3 | 83 |
| NL East | 4 | 78 |
| NL East | 5 | 72 |
| Div | Avg W | |
| NL Central | 1 | 92 |
| NL Central | 2 | 85 |
| NL Central | 3 | 80 |
| NL Central | 4 | 74 |
| NL Central | 5 | 69 |
| NL Central | 6 | 63 |
| Div | Avg W | |
| NL West | 1 | 91 |
| NL West | 2 | 85 |
| NL West | 3 | 81 |
| NL West | 4 | 77 |
| NL West | 5 | 71 |
| NL WC1 | 89 | |
| NL WC2 | 87 |
What this shows is that on average a team needed 96 wins to win the AL East, etc.,.
Some obvious things to consider would be:
- the difference between Yu Darvish (and other imports) and a league average pitcher
- prospects who project better than league average
- players who switched to parks that will affect their projections since Marcel does not park-adjust
Despite all that, the ordinal rankings seem reasonable. The only differences between this and CAIRO in that regard are that I have St. Louis ahead of Cincinnati and the Diamondbacks and Giants ahead of Colorado.
This is current through Francisco Cordero signing with Toronto, and assumes Prince Fielder at 1B and Miguel Cabrera playing a terrible version of 3B for Detroit in 70% of their games, and DHing in 25% of them.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
CAIRO 2012 v0.4
I’m releasing the latest version of the 2012 CAIRO projections today, version 0.4. They can be downloaded at the following link:
CAIRO 2012 v0.4 (Excel 97-2003 format)
What’s changed?
- Moved players to new teams and moved all unsigned players into a free agent pool
- Added projections for Yoennis Céspedes, Wei-Yin Chen, Trevor Bauer and Hisahi Iwakuma.
- Added starter projections for Alfredo Aceves, Daniel Bard, Aroldis Chapman, Kris Medlen and Chris Sale.
- Added wOBA platoon splits for hitters who’ve played in the majors. You can substitute whatever wOBA projection you want and it will re-calculate them.
- There were a few bugs in my pitching projections which have been corrected. RA/ERA are more in line with what they should be based on the peripherals. I’ve also fixed a problem with the way pitcher WAR was being calculated.
- And of course, no new version of CAIRO can be released without taking the Marcels and changing the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better, so that was done as well. The Yankees should now project to win about 140 games.
Monday, November 21, 2011
TGS NY: Bobby V. to Boston?: Be afraid, Yankees fans—be very afraid
I think that even if the Red Sox don’t do another thing this off-season, if they give Bobby Valentine the keys to the manager’s office, they immediately become a lot more dangerous.
Yeah, I’m quivering in my boots here. Looks like the 1927 Yankees are in jeopardy once again.
Friday, October 28, 2011
SportingNews: Yankees reportedly agree to deal with GM Brian Cashman
It was only a matter of time, but the Yankees have reportedly reached a deal to retain Brian Cashman as general manager. According to the New York Post, the deal is worth three years.
Now word yet on exactly how long or how much, but hopefully he’ll make enough to buy a new Jeep.
Thursday, September 29, 2011
NESN: The Gift That Keeps On Giving
For those who want to bask in schadenfreude for a bit longer…
The Red Sox have won 100 or more games three times in their 110-year existence.
They will make it four in 2011. But this team has the potential to accomplish something even bigger than winning 100 games.
Boston actually won 104 games this year, if you include spring training.
In 2010, the Red Sox scored 818 runs (second-most in the majors), or 5.1 per game. They hit 211 home runs (second in MLB) and posted a .790 OPS (tops in MLB). The offense, with even more weapons now, could demolish those numbers.
Yet one run is all it might take to win a game on some days with the starting staff the Red Sox have assembled.
The Red Sox scored exactly one run in 12 games this year. Their record in those games? 2-10.
Beckett will notch more than six victories.
Nailed this one.
Lackey should be better equipped to avoid the one-bad-inning syndrome.
Yep. Replaced it with the bad start every time syndrome.
And Dice-K might be the best No. 5 starter ever.
Certainly the most expensive one.
When Red Sox starters have to hand the ball to the bullpen this season, Boston fans won’t have to have to cover their eyes and pray. The weak link in 2010 could be one of the best relief corps in the business.
Oops.
The Red Sox were slated to win about 95 games last year. They won 89 despite injuries to Pedroia (a former MVP) and Youkilis (a possible future MVP). Add them back, along with the new players and a healthy Ellsbury, and 100 wins doesn’t just appear plausible. It seems downright inevitable.
in·ev·i·ta·ble (n-v-t-bl)
adj.
1. Impossible to avoid or prevent. See Synonyms at certain.
2. Invariably occurring or appearing; predictable: the inevitable changes of the seasons.
The 2011 Red Sox could accomplish a feat that has never been done. They could unseat the 1927 Yankees as the greatest major league team of all time.
The 1998 Yankees were better.
That would be something to celebrate.
They have certainly given us reasons to celebrate.
Saturday, August 20, 2011
A.J. Burnett Makes History
There have been 15 regular season perfect games in MLB history. There had been four games where a starting pitcher did not pitch 2 complete innings, but did throw two wild pitches, did walk at least three batters, and allowed seven or more runs.
Now there have been five such games.
Congrats A.J.!
Monday, August 15, 2011
Forecast For Kansas City This Week
It’s a good thing this series ends Wednesday.
Saturday, August 6, 2011
Yankees.com: CC remains winless against slugging Sox
BOSTON—The Yankees enjoyed but a few precious hours to admire sole possession of the top spot in the American League East, and now they must share custody with their rivals from Boston for at least another evening.
CC Sabathia continued to have problems with the Red Sox, hammered for a five-run fourth inning and seven runs in all, as the Yankees gave back a share of first place in Saturday’s 10-4 decision at Fenway Park.
The Yankees should let CC walk when he opts out*.
*This is a joke, for the handful of readers out there who may be too stupid to realize it.
Friday, July 1, 2011
Star-Ledger: Derek Jeter to play in Trenton this weekend before returning to Yankees
NEW YORK — Derek Jeter will play in two rehab games in Trenton this weekend before rejoining the Yankees on Monday in Cleveland in his run for 3,000 hits.
“I feel good now,” Jeter told reporters after working out at the Yankees’ minor-league complex in Tampa, Fla. “I’m ready to get out of here.”
Eduardo Nunez will have three more games to showcase his fielding skills.
Also, here’s a quick look at how Swisher has turned it around in the last month (below the break):
Most of Swisher's success has come off the hard stuff. All 7 of his left-handed home runs have been off fastballs, as have 5 of his 9 doubles.
I also just wanted to let you all know that I'll be covering the first game of the subway series for Stats Inc., and I hope to be able to update the site with anything interesting. I also plan on taking in the second game as well, because I just love interleague play so much....
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
Radio Iowa: Mason City scores a record 31 runs in one inning
After scoring five times in the first inning, Mason City sent 34 batters to the plate in the second inning, scoring the 31 runs off of 17 hits, 10 walks and four errors.
I had no idea Rafael Soriano had started his rehab assignment already.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
NY Post: Yankees’ Soriano to test elbow in bullpen session
Rafael Soriano could get back on a mound today or tomorrow as he tries to recover from inflammation in his right elbow…..
Soriano’s absence has forced Girardi to juggle his bullpen arms, using Joba Chamberlain and David Robertson in the eighth inning.
The Shutdown Bullpen™ is nothing without Soriano….
Friday, May 13, 2011
The Implications of this Weekend’s Series with Boston
The Red Sox have been playing better since their rough start but are still trying to fight their way to .500. The Yankees have stumbled a bit over their last ten games, losing 6 and are now in second place in the AL East behind the Tampa Bay Rays, although even in the loss column.
So with a three game set beginning tonight in the Bronx between the Yankees and Boston, here’s a look at how the different ways this series may affect the AL East going forward.
First of all, here’s how my Monte Carlo simulator says the AL East would play out as of today.
| Team | W | L | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 85.8 | 76.2 | 14.6% | 17.6% | 32.1% |
| Yankees | 92.1 | 69.9 | 50.8% | 23.7% | 74.5% |
| Rays | 89.8 | 72.2 | 34.3% | 27.6% | 61.9% |
| Blue Jays | 74.1 | 87.9 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| Orioles | 74.5 | 87.5 | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% |
W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
When Boston sweeps this series, here’s how things will look.
| Team | W | L | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 87.5 | 74.5 | 23.2% | 22.1% | 45.3% |
| Yankees | 90.3 | 71.7 | 38.2% | 25.3% | 63.4% |
| Rays | 90.0 | 72.0 | 38.0% | 23.5% | 61.5% |
| Blue Jays | 73.6 | 88.4 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Orioles | 74.5 | 87.5 | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% |
There’s a miniscule chance the Yankees take one of the three games, and if that were to happen here’s how things would shake out.
| Team | W | L | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 86.4 | 75.6 | 15.8% | 20.9% | 36.6% |
| Yankees | 91.5 | 70.5 | 46.9% | 24.5% | 71.5% |
| Rays | 90.0 | 72.0 | 37.1% | 23.8% | 60.9% |
| Blue Jays | 73.8 | 88.2 | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
| Orioles | 74.1 | 87.9 | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
I suppose there’s an infinitesimal chance the Yankees take two of three games in which case here’s how things would project going forward.
| Team | W | L | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 85.7 | 76.3 | 13.8% | 18.6% | 32.4% |
| Yankees | 91.9 | 70.1 | 50.4% | 23.6% | 73.9% |
| Rays | 90.2 | 71.8 | 35.4% | 27.5% | 62.9% |
| Blue Jays | 74.3 | 87.7 | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% |
| Orioles | 74.0 | 88.0 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
In the completely theoretical and impossible scenario where the Yankees sweep, this would be the net result.
| Team | W | L | Div | WC | PL |
| Red Sox | 84.6 | 77.4 | 10.6% | 15.6% | 26.1% |
| Yankees | 93.5 | 68.5 | 58.3% | 24.5% | 82.8% |
| Rays | 89.9 | 72.1 | 30.5% | 28.8% | 59.3% |
| Blue Jays | 73.6 | 88.4 | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| Orioles | 74.3 | 87.7 | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% |
One of my foibles is superstition. Because of that, I see no way a series against Boston that kicks off on a Friday the 13th is going to go well. Hopefully I’m wrong.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Yankees.com: Patient Yankees overwhelm White Sox
NEW YORK—Brett Gardner’s home run sparked what developed into a six-run fifth inning as the Yankees coasted to a 12-3 victory over the White Sox on Thursday.
Having been held hitless into the frame by starter Edwin Jackson, the Yankees, starting with Gardner, paraded 12 batters to the plate in the 32-minute half-inning, with runs being driven in by six different hitters.
The offensive outburst proved to be more than enough support for ace CC Sabathia, who picked up his second victory of the season.
It was good to see both Swisher and Gardner get multiple hits. The HRs by both hitters was also nice to see, even if they were of the disgraceful nature.
Your turn, Jorge.
Sunday, April 10, 2011
NY Post: Robertson proves value out of pen
BOSTON—The Yankees bullpen has been one of the most talked about topics since the middle of the winter, but David Robertson is often the forgotten reliever.
Mariano Rivera, Joba Chamberlain, Pedro Feliciano and Rafael Soriano have all gotten plenty of attention. But yesterday at Fenway Park, it was Robertson who settled the game down and provided the bridge to the late innings in the 9-4 Yankees victory.
Robertson did it on his 26th birthday, pitching 1 2/3 hitless innings, striking out one and picking up the win. Robertson, now in his fourth year in the big leagues, entered this season with an undefined role. Everyone knew Rivera, Soriano and Chamberlain were there to pitch the final three innings, and Feliciano was brought in to be the left-handed specialist.
There’s going to be a ceremony before tonight’s game where Robertson is going to get officially anointed as the sixth-inning guy. Congratulations to him.
Friday, April 1, 2011
2011 AL Shortstop Zone Rating on Opening Day
| Player | Tm | Lg | Pos | G | GS | INN | PO | A | E | DP | CH | PM | ZR | AvgPM | Diff | RS | RS/162 |
| Aybar, Erick | LAA | AL | SS | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 |
| Escobar, Alcides | KC | AL | SS | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 38 |
| Peralta, Jhonny | Det | AL | SS | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 43 |
| Jeter, Derek | NYY | AL | SS | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .500 | 2 | -1 | -1 | -82 |
CH: Fieldable chances
PM: Plays made (out of FC)
ZR: Zone rating, PM / CH
AvgPM: Plays made by an average defender over same # of CH
Diff: Avg PM - PM
RS: Run saved compared to average (run value of play at position times diff)
RS/162: RS pro-rated to 162 games
Standard caveats about sample size, imprecision of defensive metrics, etc.,
Since I’m sure some dummy will take this post as serious, if you’re a dummy please don’t. I’m just setting up my spreadsheets for 2011 and am posting this as a goof.
Friday, February 4, 2011
So Long, Battle Cat
I'm not sure where the "Battle Cat" nickname originated for Andy Pettitte*, but it seemed to take on more life in his last couple of years in New York. Maybe it was selective memory, but it seemed like Andy had a way of working out of jams with great efficiency.| PA | BB% | K% | Cntct% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2422 | 7.5% | 18.2% | 80.3% | .268 | .322 | .403 | .326 |
| Men On Base | 1027 | 9.0% | 17.6% | 78.4% | .281 | .342 | .426 | .350 |
| → w/ No Outs | 246 | 5.7% | 16.7% | 84.3% | .284 | .305 | .394 | .329 |
| RISP | 564 | 10.3% | 18.4% | 77.4% | .275 | .340 | .418 | .351 |
| → w/ No Outs | 109 | 4.6% | 8.3% | 89.5% | .341 | .330 | .459 | .377 |
| Loaded | 53 | 7.5% | 24.5% | 71.0% | .178 | .245 | .289 | .251 |
| → w/ No Outs | 6 | 0.0% | 16.7% | 100.0% | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
With runners in scoring position, Pettitte's performance wasn't particularly great. But once the bases were loaded, by the power of Grayskull, Andy beared down and got the job done. It's interesting Pettitte's K-rate jumped a bit with the bases loaded, as he was getting more swings and misses. Holding opposing batters to a slugging percentage over 100 points lower than his overall is fairly impressive too. Sure, it's only 53 plate appearances over 3 years, but pitchers aren't going to face that many bases loaded scenarios, unless they suck, and/or their last name rhymes with Mackey or Latsuzaka.
*Credit to tedbrogen on the "Battle Cat" nickname
All heatmaps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
TGS: If Not Short for Derek Jeter, Center, says Cashman
If 36-year-old Derek Jeter doesn’t last at shortstop for the length of his new four-year contract, New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman thinks Jeter is best suited for a switch to center field.
“I like corner outfielders and corner infielders who have power, so for me, if he’s ever gonna move, it’s probably gonna be a Robin Yount situation. But we don’t have to deal with it at this point,” Cashman said Tuesday. “We’ll deal with it when we have to.”
In the understatement of the week, Cashman also said that Andruw Jones “is similar to Thames in offensive production but slightly better on defense.”
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Question Of The Day
Would you rather have?
a) Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez, a first round draft pick in a deep draft and $28.75 million dollars
b) Rafael Soriano
Friday, January 14, 2011
Pitcher A vs. Pitcher B
I’m fond of thought exercises that require you to use logic to answer them so I thought I’d post one. Consider the following two pitchers.
| Year | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | BF | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitcher A | 181 | 181 | 130 | 64 | 60 | 12 | 74 | 3 | 207 | 2 | 735 | 3.18 | 2.98 | 3.03 | 36 |
| Pitcher B | 155 | 152 | 96 | 44 | 41 | 11 | 50 | 8 | 175 | 3 | 601 | 2.61 | 2.43 | 2.88 | 40 |
Now construct a justification that Pitcher B is worth three times as much as pitcher A.
Friday, December 31, 2010
NY Post: Colon says Yankees have interest
Former Cy Young Award winner Bartolo Colon told a newspaper in the Dominican Republic that the Yankees are one of three teams that have expressed interest in him.
Colon has not pitched in the major leagues since July 24, 2009, but the 37-year-old has been working on a comeback in the Dominican Winter League. The Rangers and Indians also have shown interest, according to Colon.
“I’ll go with the one that signs me,” Colon told El Dia.
Hmm, why wouldn’t you go with the one that doesn’t sign you?
I’m fairly certain Colon’s past the point of being an effective MLB pitcher, but since Boston’s already clinched the AL East it doesn’t matter. 2011 is just going to be a string of 162 meaningless games, so at least we can have fun with his name and headlines. Maybe the Yankees should trade for Chien-Ming Wang while they’re at it.
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
The Fall and Rise of Joba’s Fastball
A few weeks ago we looked at some data on Joba’s slider over the last 3 seasons. Here’s a look at his fastball over that period.| P | AVG | SLG | Contact% | PVX | PVZ | VEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 591 | .284 | .367 | 92.6% | 3.4 | -12.3 | 94.6 |
| 2009 | 1041 | .286 | .456 | 92.6% | 2.2 | -12.7 | 92.2 |
| 2010 | 419 | .274 | .405 | 89.5% | 1.4 | -12.9 | 94.1 |
| P | AVG | SLG | Contact% | PVX | PVZ | VEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 494 | .222 | .287 | 74.4% | 4.2 | -12.3 | 95.9 |
| 2009 | 762 | .327 | .570 | 86.9% | 3.1 | -12.5 | 93.1 |
| 2010 | 383 | .298 | .404 | 84.9% | 3.2 | -12.8 | 95.1 |
The drop in velocity isn’t news. Joba lost about 3 ticks on his fastball in 2009. However, 2010 saw a bump in velocity. This could be a sign that Joba’s arm is rebounding from the shoulder issue that occurred in August of 2008. Then again, a full season of bullpen work, rather than 150+ innings as a starter could have something to do with it.
The vertical movement (PVZ) on Joba’s fastball increased each season, but this is probably attributed to his drop in overall velocity. It’s odd that the horizontal movement on his fastball against lefties continues to drop, especially considering that the red on his heat map (scroll below) seems to edge inward each year (again, a righty throwing a fastball inside more will get a higher reading on his PVX due to the angle of the pitch when crossing the plate). However, a closer look shows that he threw far less inside fastballs in 2010, as the light blue is nearly all gone inside on his heat map to LHB. Thus, while the bulk of his pitches may have been moving in off the outside corner, Joba avoided throwing as many inside fastballs to LHB last season.
There are a number of other factors that may account for this phenomenon, including a possible change in release point and whether Joba altered where he set himself on the rubber. And as SG pointed out, some of the variation may be due to calibration or systemic error rather than any change on Joba’s part. From the data I’ve seen from the rest of the league so far, I’d say that the pitchFX software has been fairly consistent over the last 3 years. I wouldn’t count out some calibration issues, however, any actual deviation resulting from hardware issues over the course of a season is probably minor given the bulk of the data.
A look at the following graph shows that Joba’s fastball velocity rose steadily throughout the 2010 season.
Again, we can only speculate as to the cause, although I’d love to think it’s mainly due to his shoulder fully healing. But more than likely it’s a combination of a decreased workload and a buildup of arm strength.
Lasty, here’s a look at Joba’s heat maps for the last 3 seasons.
You can see that in 2009, Joba’s fastball was catching the inner half of the plate a bit more, particularly against RHB. Combining this with a considerable drop in velocity was deadly, as his .570 SLG% against points out. His 2009 fastball against RHB also caught the upper half of the zone much more, particularly on the mid to outer half of the plate. This is typically a bad place to leave a 92 mph fastball.
In 2010, Joba’s location to RHB changed dramatically as he threw his fastball to a much lower spot, nearly abandoning the upper half of the zone. Doing so shaved over 150 points off his SLG% against to RHB.
Every week that passes seems to indicate that Andy Pettitte is more likely to retire. The Yankees need to fill out their rotation. Now, I understand that this isn’t the same JOBA! of 2007-08. But it might not be the worst thing in the world if the Yankees began to transition him back to a starting role at some point, especially if his arm truly is getting stronger.
Since Boston has already locked up the 2011 AL East title, what’s the harm?
All heatmaps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Monday, November 22, 2010
You Always Have Other Options: Yankees offering $120 million for Cliff Lee?
Cliff Lee(notes), the 32-year-old free agent lefty pitcher that everybody wants a piece of, is most likely about to become one of the highest-paid players in Major League Baseball history.
The Boston Globe reports that the New York Yankees are offering Lee a deal worth between $115 million and $120 million for five seasons of work
It’s a lot of money, but since Cliff Lee never loses in the postseason, it guarantees five straight World Series titles, so it’s probably worth every penny.
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Projecting The Rest of Derek Jeter’s Career
Since rilkefan asked about a comparison of Derek Jeter and Eduardo Nunez over the next five seasons, here’s a look at what CAIRO says about that.
Before presenting the numbers, I’ll say that projecting even next year is a crapshoot, so projecting out to the next five seasons is even more of one. So take whatever follows with several pounds of salt.
First up, here’s a look at how Jeter would project from 2011-2015, assuming he follows the standard aging curve.
| Player | Jeter, Derek | ||||||||||||||||
| Year | Age | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | BRAR | Def | WAR |
| 2011 | 37 | 699 | 181 | 29 | 2 | 13 | 15 | 63 | 96 | .290 | .359 | .407 | .342 | 85 | 32 | -7 | 2.5 |
| 2012 | 38 | 677 | 172 | 27 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 56 | 96 | .284 | .347 | .389 | .328 | 77 | 26 | -9 | 1.7 |
| 2013 | 39 | 641 | 161 | 24 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 54 | 98 | .282 | .346 | .380 | .325 | 71 | 22 | -10 | 1.2 |
| 2014 | 40 | 631 | 158 | 23 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 52 | 99 | .281 | .344 | .377 | .322 | 68 | 21 | -12 | 0.9 |
| 2015 | 41 | 574 | 139 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 44 | 99 | .271 | .329 | .354 | .306 | 56 | 13 | -13 | -0.1 |
| Total | 3222 | 811 | 121 | 11 | 48 | 68 | 269 | 488 | .282 | .346 | .382 | .325 | 357 | 115 | -52 | 6.3 |
BRAR: Linear weights batting runs above replacement level (park and position-adjusted)
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
Def: Projected runs saved defensively compared to average
WAR: Wins above replacement level (BRAR plus Def divided by 10)
The defensive projection is assuming a decline of about 1.5 runs per season, but it’s possible that the current projection of -7 is understating how poor of a defender Jeter may be. There is some evidence that the play by play metrics are not fully capturing all of the plays that Jeter’s missing, but at this point I don’t consider it enough evidence to change from using several different play by play metrics that are reasonably useful and for which we have at least four years of data.
And here’s how Nunez would project over the same time period, also assuming he follows the standard aging curve.
| Player | Nunez, Eduardo | ||||||||||||||||
| Year | Age | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | BRAR | Def | WAR |
| 2011 | 24 | 528 | 127 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 27 | 68 | .256 | .295 | .349 | .286 | 47 | 7 | -1 | 0.6 |
| 2012 | 25 | 522 | 125 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 26 | 69 | .255 | .296 | .348 | .286 | 45 | 6 | -1 | 0.6 |
| 2013 | 26 | 528 | 126 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 28 | 71 | .255 | .298 | .351 | .288 | 47 | 7 | -2 | 0.6 |
| 2014 | 27 | 528 | 125 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | 71 | .254 | .298 | .350 | .288 | 47 | 7 | -3 | 0.5 |
| 2015 | 28 | 528 | 121 | 22 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 29 | 71 | .246 | .292 | .340 | .282 | 44 | 5 | -4 | 0.1 |
| Total | 2633 | 623 | 109 | 8 | 35 | 83 | 139 | 351 | .253 | .296 | .347 | .286 | 230 | 32 | -9 | 2.3 |
Nunez’s offensive projections leave a lot to be desired, because he really hasn’t hit all that well in the minors, and he’s really not young enough to expect a significant improvement. A line of .274/.318/.369 in 6 minor league seasons just isn’t that good.
Although I’ve included it here, Nunez’s defensive projection is essentially worthless, since it’s only based on his brief time in the majors. From what I saw, I doubt he’d even be an average defender, but I’m no scout and I really didn’t see enough to make any useful assessment. But I just can’t see his glove making up for that offensive projection.
With the data we have so right now, it’s hard to see a situation where Nunez is going to be more valuable than Jeter over the next four seasons. That doesn’t mean Jeter can’t underperform his projection or Nunez can’t overperform his, but right now that’s just not the most likely scenario.
Of course, this needs to be tempered with the fact that CAIRO has two biases. The first bias is the Yankee boosting algorithm which makes all the Yankees several wins better than they actually are. The second bias is the anti-Jeter algorithm that I created to account for my hatred of Jeter. So the gap is probably larger than this would show.
Anyway, since I don’t like to put all my faith in what one system might say, a less rigorous way to look at what Jeter may do may also be somewhat enlightening. So, using his list of most similar players through age 36 from Baseball Reference, here’s how the eight players who played after age 36 performed over the rest of their careers.
| Player | From To | Yrs | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | SB | CS | OPS+ |
| Joe Morgan | 1981-1984 | 4 | 463 | 1540 | 237 | 390 | 76 | 6 | 44 | 194 | 306 | 190 | .253 | .376 | .396 | 64 | 14 | 119 |
| Barry Larkin | 2001-2004 | 4 | 371 | 1250 | 195 | 332 | 80 | 6 | 19 | 126 | 127 | 153 | .266 | .334 | .385 | 20 | 6 | 87 |
| Charlie Gehringer | 1940-1942 | 3 | 311 | 996 | 179 | 269 | 52 | 7 | 14 | 134 | 203 | 47 | .270 | .397 | .379 | 11 | 2 | 97 |
| Lou Whitaker | 1994-1995 | 2 | 176 | 571 | 103 | 170 | 35 | 2 | 26 | 87 | 72 | 88 | .298 | .375 | .503 | 6 | 0 | 125 |
| Alan Trammell | 1995-1996 | 2 | 140 | 416 | 44 | 105 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 39 | 37 | 46 | .252 | .310 | .308 | 9 | 1 | 60 |
| Ryne Sandberg | 1997-1997 | 1 | 135 | 447 | 54 | 118 | 26 | 0 | 12 | 64 | 28 | 94 | .264 | .308 | .403 | 7 | 4 | 83 |
| Ted Simmons | 1987-1988 | 2 | 151 | 284 | 26 | 70 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 41 | 36 | 32 | .246 | .328 | .359 | 1 | 1 | 85 |
| Frankie Frisch | 1936-1937 | 2 | 110 | 335 | 43 | 90 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 37 | 10 | .269 | .343 | .313 | 2 | 0 | 78 |
| Average | 3 | 232 | 730 | 110 | 193 | 39 | 3 | 16 | 89 | 106 | 83 | .264 | .358 | .389 | 15 | 4 | 92 |
I’m going to only discuss offense here, given the issues with defensive metrics past and present. I’ll also note that the similarity scores on Baseball Reference don’t account for era (aside from OPS+) so we need to temper how much we take from them.
Morgan was probably a better player than Jeter through age 36 once you adjust for context, so expecting Jeter to play to that level is perhaps wishful thinking. Barry Larkin’s career actually models Jeter’s career through age 36 fairly closely on a rate basis, although Jeter’s greater durability gives him an edge in accrued value.
| Years | Player | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | HBP | SO | GDP | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ |
| 1986-2000 | Barry Larkin | 7654 | 2008 | 361 | 70 | 179 | 359 | 71 | 812 | 48 | 664 | 140 | .300 | .377 | .456 | .833 | 121 |
| 1995-2010 | Derek Jeter | 10548 | 2926 | 468 | 61 | 234 | 323 | 85 | 948 | 152 | 1572 | 235 | .314 | .385 | .452 | .837 | 119 |
Those are remarkably similar lines, aren’t they?
Larkin played four more years and put up a lackluster line of .266/.334/.385 (OPS+ of 87) while averaging 93 games and 351 PA per season. According to Baseball Reference’s WAR he was worth 2.4 WAR and got paid $27,700,000 for that.
On one hand, Jeter’s greater demonstrated ability to stay healthy is probably a point in his favor. If Larkin would have played more he’d have been more valuable. On the other hand, the fact that Jeter has played so much probably means he’s accumulated more wear and tear and his performance may be impacted.
Morgan put up 11.8 WAR from ages 37-40. If the Yankees sign Jeter for four years CAIRO estimates they’ll get something like 6.0 WAR out of him, which is a bit less than the midpoint between Morgan and Larkin. So that at least seems to be in the ballpark.
Hopefully they can keep the contract terms to three years, but I guess even a fourth year is not going to be a catastrophe on the field, even if it’s going to be a pretty hefty overpay.
Friday, November 12, 2010
Yankees.com: Teixeira honored at Lou Gehrig banquet
I heard about this UZR, Ultimate Zone Rating, and I saw Robinson Cano has a negative Ultimate Zone Rating. That is absolutely crazy,” Teixeira said. “So if Robinson Cano—who was the best second baseman I’ve ever seen, and I’ve been in this business a while now and have played with some good players, played against some good players—is a negative, I don’t put any stock into those things.
“Any time there’s an award, there’s going to be, ‘Oh, you don’t deserve it, he doesn’t deserve it.’ There’s going to be that. But at the end of the day, if you polled every player and you let the players vote, I think every player would have the same idea of the best fielders in the league.”
Then Teixeira was asked point-blank: Does Jeter deserve his Gold Glove?
“Of course,” he replied.
Finally, some sanity in this world of Jeter hate.
Monday, October 25, 2010
2010 wOBA Leaders from 7th Inning On
2010 MLB wOBA Leaders from 7th Inning On (Min. 150 PA)
I haven’t checked yet, but I’m pretty sure the guy ranked 9th got his hits when his team was up or down by at least 10 runs.
All data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Jeter through September 8th
| BB | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | BAbip | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 Derek Jeter through September 8 | 59 | 17 | .327 | .394 | .466 | .355 | .397 |
| 2010 Derek Jeter through September 8 | 51 | 10 | .262 | .328 | .369 | .294 | .326 |
With an 0 for 4 game against the Orioles yesterday (with three ground outs), Jeter's OPS officially dropped below .700. But he did fly out to right field in the 6th inning, so things are looking up.
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Yankees.com: CC wins 18th as Yanks thump White Sox
The Yankees allowed nine runs for the second straight night, but they were on the winning end the second time around, jumping to an early lead and holding on for a 12-9 victory over the White Sox.
“It was a great team effort,” said Marcus Thames, who hit a pair of long home runs to left field. “Last night, it was ugly from the start. Tonight, we just played baseball.”
Hopefully there’s less ugly tomorrow.
Also, Major League Baseball is investigating New York Yankees pitcher Ivan Nova and a former minor league teammate for allegedly injecting each other with B-12 shots. It’s not a banned substance, but if B-12 keeps pitchers from sucking, they need to get Burnett and Vazquez on some IV drips ASAP.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Dustin Moseley in August
I was planning on doing a follow up review of Javy Vazquez, focusing on his starts since the All-Star Break. But since he’s no longer in the rotation, I figure all five people that would have read it won’t care anymore.
So instead, I took a look at another starter. Unlike some teams, the Yankees starting rotation does not consist of multiple 1a starters. As a result, we’ve been treated to the ‘Dustin Moseley the Starter’ era. While one can’t say he’s pitched great, he hasn’t exactly bombed like the other 3/5ths of the current Yankees rotation. In most of his starts, he’s kept them in the game, even if it wasn’t so pretty.
Moseley is a sinkerball pitcher who can spot his pitches fairly well. His change and curveball are decent secondary pitches, although he tends to throw the curve sparingly, while saving the change for left handed batters. I noticed that MLB’s pitchFX has been wrongly categorizing Moseley’s slider as a cut fastball. It’s somewhat understandable given that it doesn’t break as much as a traditional slider. While this would normally raise a red flag as to it’s effectiveness, he’s thrown the slider for decent results so far this season.
Here’s a look at some numbers from Moseley’s August starts:
Moseley gave up 5 runs over 7.1 innings as the Yankees fell 8-2 to the Jays. Moseley actually didn’t pitch as bad as his line reveals. He pitched into the 8th and got a ton of ground balls. The Wells solo HR in the 8th inning put a negative cherry on top of what would otherwise look like an acceptable start from your 5th starter. Although, that Travis Snider HR was pretty annoying.
This was actually Moseley’s best start in August. He gave up two runs over 6.1 innings, while yielding six hits and two walks. He also struck out a season high 5 batters. He effectively kept the ball out of the air and on the ground, with Bill Hall’s HR the only big mistake.
This was a stinker, even with TSBG saving Moseley an earned run by throwing out Blanco at the plate in the first. To be fair, Moseley did have to wait out a 31 minute rain delay before the bottom half of the third inning in Kansas City. I’m not sure if the weather had any effect on his pitch selection, but he was definitely relying on that sinker more than usual. If he’s not mixing in his other pitches, his sinker becomes a lot easier for opposing teams to recognize.
Two words: Miguel Cabrera. Carry on.
Another non-terrible start from a 5th starter. However, he allowed quite a few hard hit balls, some of which luckily found gloves.
So far in August, opponents have a line of .295/.365/.518 against Moseley, with a .385 wOBA and .285 BABIP. His FIP in August is 5.54 compared to a 5.28 ERA.
While he’s so far avoided getting clobbered, the numbers aren’t very encouraging going forward. Ultimately, Moseley’s highest value will be in the pen. As a sinkerball pitcher, he could have value late in games, especially with men on base. However, the bullpen isn’t an area that Yankees have had trouble with lately. With an Andy Pettitte return date still uncertain and CC the only reliable starter, it looks like Moseley will probably get a few more starts.
It stinks not having sixteen aces.
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Yankees.com: Nunez’s first MLB knock propels Yanks’ win
NEW YORK—Eduardo Nunez’s first Major League hit scored Austin Kearns with the go-ahead run in the seventh, and the Yankees beat the Mariners, 9-5, on Saturday.
Nunez’s single through the right side broke a 4-4 tie. It was the third straight hit for the bottom of the Yankees’ order against Seattle starter Jason Vargas, who had retired 17 of the previous 18 hitters. After Vargas departed, Derek Jeter added an RBI single and Mark Teixeira a sacrifice fly to extend the New York lead.
It took three PAs, but Eduardo Nunez is now a True Yankee™.
Javier Vazquez on the other hand, is not. At this point, you almost have to stop starting him, don’t you? There’s no evidence that he’s anything but awful right now. Over his last seven games:
| GS | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | RA | ERA | FIP | CERA | AVG/OBP/SLG |
| 7 | 35 | 49 | 29 | 26 | 15 | 23 | 11 | 7.46 | 6.69 | 7.26 | 7.73 | .327/.381/.673 |
Think about this. Albert Pujols is a slam-dunk first ballot Hall of Famer. He’s NEVER had a season with a SLG as high as .673 (career high is .671, average is .625).
During the game today, the Yankee announcers discussed the off day coming up next Thursday right before Vazquez’s next scheduled start. The Yankees can use CC Sabathia on full rest in Vazquez’s stead on Friday. Let’s hope they do it.
OK, enough complaining from me.
Chad Gaudin’s probably not going to last on the Yankee roster for the rest of the season, but he came up huge today when the Yankees needed and has quietly been reasonably effective as a Yankee all season. His three scoreless innings today lowered his Yankee RA to 4.05 over his 33 innings pitched, although with a FIP of 5.21 it’s probably not something we should expect to continue.
If Oakland continues to do the right thing tonight, the Yankees will be back to two games up in the AL East. Go A’s!
In other good news, Yankees place 3B Alex Rodriguez on the DL with strained left calf muscle.
After missing yesterday’s game, Yankee manager Joe Girardi announced that Rodriguez would be going on the 15-day disabled list with the calf strain.
“We’re going to play it safe,” Girardi said. “We don’t feel that he’s any worse than he was before, but we’re just going to play it extremely safe and know that we’ll have a player in 15
I don’t think this is a problem, since Eduardo Nunez is better than Rodriguez at this point, but Rodriguez might still be useful in September when you want to give Nunez a half day off at DH or something.
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Yankees (71-44) @ Royals (48-68), Saturday, August 14, 2010, 7:10pm **Game Chatter**
Belated Game Chatter….Yankees down 1-0 in the 3rd. Future HOFer Sean O’Sullivan quieting the Yankee bats.
NY Post: Yankees waste chances in rain-delayed defeat
Tampa couldn’t hit and lost. Boston flushed another lead and lost. And the umpires at Kauffman Stadium refused to call a game the Royals were leading in the home fifth despite torrential rain.
Instead, the umps allowed the rain to fall for two-plus hours and resumed the action. And still, the Yankees couldn’t shake the lowly Royals, dropping a 4-3 decision in front of 30,680.
The defeat left the Yankees two games ahead of the Rays and six up on the third-place Red Sox in the AL East, but has to be viewed as a missed opportunity.
“We had a couple of opportunities to win the game and we weren’t able to get it done,” said Joe Girardi, whose club went 3-for-15 with runners in scoring position and stranded 11 runners.
When play resumed after a second rain delay of 2 hours and 10 minutes in the fifth inning, the temperature had dropped to 73 degrees, which was a welcome relief from the 98 it was when Kyle Davies threw the first pitch.
Mike Cole was right! Just give the Red Sox the 2010 AL East division title now.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Yankees.com: Without homering, A-Rod helps fuel rout
CLEVELAND—Alex Rodriguez may not have delivered the milestone home run the Yankees have been waiting for, but their offense swung the bats plenty in posting an 8-0 pounding of the Indians on Wednesday at Progressive Field.
New York battered Cleveland starter Fausto Carmona early and often, chasing the right-hander after just 2 2/3 innings to the tune of 10 hits and seven earned runs to improve to 28 games over .500 at 64-36, matching their season high.
Don’t get too excited about this win, or any other recent win, for that matter. Because the tide is about to turn on the Yankees as they’ll eventually have to face a red hot Red Sox team and oppressive heat in Kansas City.
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Yahoo: Yankees’ Chan Ho Park on trading block
The New York Yankees added Chan Ho Park(notes) last offseason after being impressed when he faced them in the World Series last season as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies. Now the team is looking to unload him, according to ESPN.
I know that Jayson Stark reported the Royals turned down an offer of Jesus Montero for Joakim Soria, but I think a package of Montero and Park could get it done.
Sunday, July 11, 2010
NY Daily News: Joba Chamberlain gives up grand slam to Jose Lopez as Yankees fall to Mariners
SEATTLE - Now we know why Brian Cashman tried to trade for Cliff Lee on Friday. He needed an eighth-inning guy.
Joba Chamberlain continued his roller-coaster season Saturday night, wasting a brilliant effort by Javier Vazquez with a disastrous eighth. Chamberlain failed to protect a one-run lead, giving up a grand slam by Jose Lopez to deal the Yankees a 4-1 loss to the Mariners.
It’s really getting tiresome reading about how Joba’s having a bad year. We know the only reason he disappointed last year is because he wasn’t meant to be a starter, and returning to his rightful place in the bullpen would bring back the Joba of old.
We also know his FIP this year is 2.80, so he’s having a very good year. In fact, he should be an All Star, he’s just been “unlucky.”
As an aside, what does Jonathan Albaladejo have to do to get a shot at replacing Chan Ho Park?
Update: In an unrelated sad story, Bob Sheppard has passed away at age 99. Sheppard will always be the voice of Yankee Stadium in my mind. RIP Mr. Sheppard.
Saturday, July 3, 2010
Yankees.com: Yankees roll over Jays with 11-run third
NEW YORK—Brett Gardner smacked his first career grand slam on Saturday as part of an 11-run third inning for the Yankees, who broke out of a week-long offensive slumber to thrash the Blue Jays, 11-3.
The Yankees sent 15 men to the plate in a half-inning that took 39 minutes and 57 pitches. Prior to the frame, the Bombers trailed, 2-0, had not recorded a hit in their past 25 at-bats with runners in scoring position and had scored a total of nine runs in the first four games of their homestand.
WOE took one inning off. Whoop-de-damn-do.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
NY Times: Rodriguez Says He Is Close to Rejoining Yankees
Alex Rodriguez needed one more day to rehabilitate his right hip flexor, but only one, he said. After performing a slew of baseball-related activities during batting practice, Rodriguez said he expected to rejoin the Yankees’ lineup Wednesday.
Rodriguez last played in the June 10 game against the Orioles, which the Yankees lost. Since then, the Yankees have won every single game they’ve played. Take another month off Alex, it’s cool. Ramiro Pena’s on the case.
Monday, April 12, 2010
2010 Opening Week In Review
If you trust the results of the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout, the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays are probably the three best teams in baseball. So starting the season by playing six games on the road against two of the three best teams in baseball had the potential to be pretty painful. Fortunately for us, the Yankees were up to the task, taking two of three from both of their rivals, enabling them to stay close to the Toronto juggernaut in the AL East.
Here’s a look at how the team performed statistically.
| Player | Team | Lg | Pos | G | AB | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | GDP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAR |
| Jorge Posada | Yankees | AL | C | 5 | 17 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .353 | .500 | .824 | .534 | 6.0 | 4.4 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | AL | CF | 6 | 23 | 26 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .348 | .423 | .652 | .452 | 6.2 | 3.9 |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | AL | 2B | 6 | 25 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .360 | .370 | .680 | .428 | 5.2 | 2.9 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | AL | RF | 6 | 21 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .440 | .571 | .437 | 4.9 | 2.4 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 6 | 27 | 29 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .259 | .310 | .481 | .336 | 3.6 | 1.2 |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | AL | SS | 6 | 28 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .286 | .333 | .321 | .300 | 3.2 | 0.9 |
| Francisco Cervelli | Yankees | AL | C | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .400 | .667 | .392 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | AL | LF | 5 | 17 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .294 | .368 | .294 | .313 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| Marcus Thames | Yankees | AL | LF | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .400 | .250 | .324 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Ramiro Pena | Yankees | AL | 3B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Randy Winn | Yankees | AL | RF | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | -0.2 | -0.4 |
| Nick Johnson | Yankees | AL | DH | 6 | 22 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .136 | .367 | .182 | .294 | 2.5 | -0.9 |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | AL | 1B | 6 | 24 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .125 | .276 | .167 | .229 | 1.3 | -1.8 |
| Total | 62 | 213 | 249 | 58 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 2 | .272 | .369 | .451 | .360 | 36.7 | 13.9 |
BR: Batting runs using linear weights
BRAR: Position-adjusted BR above replacement level
At this point, Teixeira’s a sunk cost and the Yankees should probably just release him and eat his salary. How about that Posada kid though? And this Granderson fella can play a bit as well. On a slightly more serious note, the Yankees put up 36 runs in six games on the road against two of the better projected run prevention teams in the league, which bodes nicely for the offense going forward.
| Player | Team | Lg | Role | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | AL | SP | 2 | 2 | 13.0 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 3.46 | 3.46 | 2.74 | 2.9 |
| Andy Pettitte | Yankees | AL | SP | 1 | 1 | 6.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 3.87 | 2.7 |
| Mariano Rivera | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 3.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.87 | 1.7 |
| A.J. Burnett | Yankees | AL | SP | 2 | 2 | 12.0 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 4.50 | 3.75 | 4.53 | 1.3 |
| Alfredo Aceves | Yankees | AL | RP | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.20 | 1.1 |
| David Robertson | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.20 | 1.1 |
| Sergio Mitre | Yankees | AL | RP | 1 | 0 | 2.3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 2.34 | 0.3 |
| Damaso Marte | Yankees | AL | RP | 2 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.20 | 0.2 |
| Joba Chamberlain | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 3.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 3.20 | -0.3 |
| Chan Ho Park | Yankees | AL | RP | 2 | 0 | 3.7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7.36 | 4.91 | 5.65 | -0.9 |
| Javier Vazquez | Yankees | AL | SP | 1 | 1 | 5.7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12.71 | 12.71 | 7.61 | -4.5 |
| Total | 21 | 6 | 53 | 49 | 26 | 24 | 4 | 18 | 34 | 4.42 | 4.08 | 3.92 | 5.5 |
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level.
Yay Battlecat! And if you need further proof about how foolish it was to put Joba in the rotation, look at how dominant he’s been as a reliever so far. I don’t care about sample size, he’s clearly the Joba of old again. Vindication for the JSPTE crowd!
UZR is not yet available for 2010, but here’s how the team performed this past week according to zone rating.
| Player | Tm | Lg | Pos | G | GS | CH | INN | PO | A | E | DP | ZR | PM | Avg ZR | AvgPM | Diff | RS |
| Rodriguez, Alex | NYY | AL | 3B | 6 | 6 | 19 | 52 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 3 | .947 | 18 | .826 | 16 | 2 | 2 |
| Granderson, Curtis | NYY | AL | CF | 6 | 6 | 26 | 53 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .923 | 24 | .881 | 23 | 1 | 1 |
| Teixeira, Mark | NYY | AL | 1B | 6 | 6 | 13 | 53 | 57 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1.000 | 13 | .943 | 12 | 1 | 1 |
| Gardner, Brett | NYY | AL | LF | 5 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .889 | 8 | .858 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Pena, Ramiro | NYY | AL | 3B | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1 | .826 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Winn, Randy | NYY | AL | RF | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1 | .867 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Swisher, Nick | NYY | AL | RF | 6 | 6 | 6 | 47 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .833 | 5 | .867 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Thames, Marcus | NYY | AL | LF | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .667 | 2 | .858 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| Jeter, Derek | NYY | AL | SS | 6 | 6 | 14 | 53 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 3 | .643 | 9 | .849 | 12 | -3 | -2 |
| Cano, Robinson | NYY | AL | 2B | 6 | 6 | 24 | 53 | 11 | 20 | 0 | 5 | .708 | 17 | .831 | 20 | -3 | -2 |
G: Games
GS: Games Started
CH: Playable Chances
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double Plays
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
PM: Plays Made
Avg ZR: ZR by average defender at the same position and in the same league
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved
Standard caveats about limitations of fielding metrics and sample size apply as always. At this point just one missed play can have a huge impact on a player’s RS total, so don’t make too much of these numbers yet, although I’ve been very pleased with Rodriguez’s defense at third so far. His hip doesn’t seem to be an issue in terms of his lateral range to this point.
For the hell of it, here’s how zone rating has all 30 MLB teams ranked (does not include catchers).
| TM | POS | Ch | PM | Diff | RS |
| Det | Total | 106 | 98 | 7 | 6 |
| Cle | Total | 100 | 92 | 6 | 5 |
| Fla | Total | 104 | 91 | 4 | 3 |
| StL | Total | 103 | 88 | 3 | 3 |
| Mil | Total | 101 | 87 | 3 | 3 |
| Atl | Total | 111 | 95 | 3 | 2 |
| Was | Total | 107 | 92 | 3 | 2 |
| SD | Total | 105 | 89 | 2 | 1 |
| Cin | Total | 107 | 91 | 1 | 1 |
| Oak | Total | 113 | 98 | 1 | 1 |
| Sea | Total | 130 | 113 | 1 | 1 |
| NYM | Total | 117 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
| Tor | Total | 99 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| ChC | Total | 98 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| Bos | Total | 121 | 104 | 0 | 0 |
| KC | Total | 114 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
| Min | Total | 124 | 106 | 0 | 0 |
| LAA | Total | 132 | 113 | 0 | 0 |
| Col | Total | 105 | 85 | -1 | -1 |
| NYY | Total | 116 | 98 | -2 | -1 |
| LA | Total | 95 | 76 | -2 | -1 |
| Bal | Total | 96 | 81 | -2 | -2 |
| Phi | Total | 106 | 86 | -2 | -2 |
| Ari | Total | 110 | 89 | -2 | -2 |
| SF | Total | 114 | 92 | -2 | -2 |
| TB | Total | 115 | 96 | -3 | -3 |
| Hou | Total | 120 | 97 | -4 | -3 |
| CWS | Total | 107 | 88 | -4 | -3 |
| Tex | Total | 91 | 74 | -4 | -3 |
| Pit | Total | 118 | 91 | -7 | -5 |
Shouldn’t the Red Sox be around +10 by now? Peter Gammons told me they were going to be historically great defensively.
When we looked at the April expectations using log 5, we saw that the Yankees would have been estimated to go 1.4 - 1.6 versus Boston and 1.5 and 1.5 versus Tampa Bay(and yes, I know you can’t win .4 or .5 or .6 games). That means they’d have been expected to be 2.94 - 3.06 after six games. All that means is they’re a game ahead of where we’d have put them, so we’d have to consider opening week a success.
| date | game | xW | xL | cxW | cxL | aW | aL | caW | caL | W+/- |
| 4-Apr | @Boston Red Sox | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -0.48 |
| 6-Apr | @Boston Red Sox | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.97 | 1.03 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 |
| 7-Apr | @Boston Red Sox | 0.48 | 0.52 | 1.45 | 1.55 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.55 |
| 9-Apr | @Tampa Bay Rays | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.95 | 2.05 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 |
| 10-Apr | @Tampa Bay Rays | 0.50 | 0.50 | 2.44 | 2.56 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.56 |
| 11-Apr | @Tampa Bay Rays | 0.50 | 0.50 | 2.94 | 3.06 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.06 |
xW/L: Expected wins/losses using log 5
cxW/L: Cumulative expected wins/losses using log 5
aW/L: Actual wins/losses for games played
caW/L: Cumulative ctual wins/losses for games played
W+/-: caW - cxW. Negative means behind pace, positive means ahead of pace
So now it’s on to a six game home stand against the Orange County Angels and the Texas Rangers.
| date | game | xW | xL | cxW | cxL |
| 13-Apr | vs. Los Angeles Angels | 0.65 | 0.35 | 3.59 | 3.41 |
| 14-Apr | vs. Los Angeles Angels | 0.65 | 0.35 | 4.23 | 3.77 |
| 15-Apr | vs. Los Angeles Angels | 0.65 | 0.35 | 4.88 | 4.12 |
| 16-Apr | vs. Texas Rangers | 0.61 | 0.39 | 5.49 | 4.51 |
| 17-Apr | vs. Texas Rangers | 0.61 | 0.39 | 6.09 | 4.91 |
| 18-Apr | vs. Texas Rangers | 0.61 | 0.39 | 6.7 | 5.3 |
| total | 3.78 | 2.22 |
Log 5 would tell you that the Yankees should go 3.78 - 2.22 on this homestand, but they’ll get swept by the Angels, which is going to make that impossible. So I guess it’s good they’ve got a game in the bank.
Saturday, April 10, 2010
CAIRO Emergency Update: Javier Vazquez
Turns out there was a bug in CAIRO's projection for Javier Vazquez, much like CC Sabathia's 2009 projection, so here's the revised forecast.| Cairo% | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | HBP | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR |
| 80% | 35 | 35 | 196 | 247 | 247 | 247 | 57 | 89 | 178 | 0 | 11.32 | 11.32 | 3.34 | -116.1 |
| 65% | 32 | 32 | 178 | 244 | 244 | 244 | 59 | 90 | 164 | 0 | 12.30 | 12.30 | 3.96 | -124.9 |
| Baseline | 30 | 30 | 170.0 | 240 | 240 | 240 | 60 | 90 | 150 | 0 | 12.71 | 12.71 | 4.41 | -126.7 |
| 35% | 29 | 29 | 161 | 235 | 235 | 235 | 61 | 90 | 137 | 0 | 13.12 | 13.12 | 4.86 | -127.7 |
| 20% | 27 | 27 | 153 | 230 | 230 | 230 | 61 | 90 | 124 | 0 | 13.53 | 13.53 | 5.32 | -127.9 |
RSAR: Runs saved above/below replacement.
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