Monday, April 30, 2012
MLB.com: Yanks move Garcia to ‘pen, Phelps to rotation
NEW YORK—Freddy Garcia has been dispatched to the Yankees’ bullpen, and rookie David Phelps will have an opportunity to pitch out of the club’s rotation.
Garcia was battered by the Tigers for six runs in 1 2/3 innings on Saturday in a 7-5 Yankees loss, the second straight start Garcia only recorded five outs, and the change did not come as a shock to the hurler.
“When you’re pitching [poorly] out of the rotation, what do you expect?” Garcia said. “When you don’t do your job, what are they supposed to do? That’s what happened. They’re honest. I didn’t pitch the way I was supposed to pitch. It’s reality.”
I don’t think Garcia’s as bad as he’s looked so far this year, and his peripherals generally agree. Repeated from yesterday’s game thread.
Garcia 2011: 15.3% K/BF, 7.2% BB/BF, 4.36 xFIP, 87.2 mph average fastball velocity
Garcia 2012: 15.7% K/BF, 7.1% BB/BF, 3.95 xFIP, 87.0 mph average fastball velocity
Unfortunately, there’s also this:
Garcia 2011: .292 BABIP against, 22.3% LD, 8.2% HR/FB, 77.1% LOB
Garcia 2012: .440 BABIP against, 42.3% LD, 23.1% HR/FB, 41.0% LOB
I get the feeling that Garcia will get another chance to start at some point, and will probably do ok if he does. That being said, I think removing him from the rotation for now is the right thing to do, moreso to see what the Yankees have in David Phelps, but also to give Garcia a chance to regroup.
As far as what the Yankees have in Phelps, I have no idea. He’s pitched pretty well this year, but that’s the extent of his MLB resume. His projections are all based on translating his minor league numbers and have huge error bars because of that. Rather than rehash those, I’ll. just point you to his pre-season projections.
If all we knew about Phelps was what he’d done as a reliever at the big league level (17.2 IP of 3.57 ERA), we could try and fudge how that would translate to a starter. In general, a reliever who moves to the rotation will be about 15-20% less effective. Hits, homers and runs will go up by 15-20%, strike outs will drop by about the same rate. Walk rate stays pretty stable. If you were to use his performance so far to project him as a starter and reliever, it’d look something like this.
| Role | W | L | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starter | 7 | 7 | 20 | 20 | 120 | 93 | 58 | 34 | 45 | 82 | 4.35 |
| Reliever | 4 | 3 | 70 | 0 | 70 | 48 | 28 | 16 | 28 | 55 | 3.60 |
The problem here is that it’s probably not realistic to think Phelps can hold hitters to a .178 BABIP all year. FIP has him at 5.66 and xFIP has him at 4.09. Splitting the difference puts him at around 4.87. That’s a hair better than his average ERA projection heading into the year, and although it’s not great, it’s better than what they’ve gotten out of Garcia at least. And Phil Hughes, for that matter.
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Yankees.com: Garcia ousted early as rallying Yanks fall
NEW YORK—Freddy Garcia is long removed from blowing fastballs by hitters, but he found a second life as a soft-tosser who hit the corners exceptionally. Those days, too, seem to be fading further and further into the rear-view mirror.
Loud boos showered the veteran as he was sent to a second-inning exit on Saturday, and Garcia may have pitched himself out of New York’s rotation with his latest clunker, hit hard for six runs as the Tigers defeated the Yankees, 7-5, at Yankee Stadium.
We can now complete SG’s trend line for Freddy:
April 10: 4.2 IP, 4 R
April 16: 5.2 IP, 5 R
April 21: 1.2 IP, 5 R
April 28: 1.2 IP, 6 R
Thursday, April 26, 2012
NY Times: Yankees Lose Pineda for Season, and Hughes Adds to Worries
ARLI
NGTON, Tex. — It was a dreary day for the Yankees’ pitching rotation Wednesday, as news about Michael Pineda’s season-ending injury was followed by a bad outing from one of the pitchers the Yankees hope can make up for Pineda’s loss.
IIn the afternoon, the Yankees announced that Pineda had a torn labrum in his right shoulder and would miss the season, and the first month of next year. Several hours later, Phil Hughes compounded the problem.
I wanted to try and show the projected impact of losing Pineda, but at this point given the fact that those innings are going to be replaced by some combination of Hughes, Freddy Garcia and Andy Pettitte I don’t think I can do it. I have no idea how to project any of them right now. Hughes and Garcia are worse than replacement level and I’m not sure they’ll be better than that at any point this year. With Pettitte we have the uncertainty of what a year off may have done to him.
If we assume Pineda’s replaced by replacement level innings, the Yankees lose about three wins. Hopefully it’s not worse than that.
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
2012 MLB Starting Pitching Through April 24
| Team | IP | TBF | RA | ERA | FIP | xFIP | BB/BF | K/BF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 104.7 | 401 | 2.15 | 1.72 | 2.03 | 2.85 | 5.5% | 24.2% |
| Cardinals | 112.0 | 439 | 2.73 | 2.57 | 3.06 | 3.42 | 5.7% | 17.8% |
| Rangers | 120.7 | 497 | 2.83 | 2.76 | 3.25 | 3.90 | 7.6% | 19.1% |
| Pirates | 86.7 | 354 | 3.01 | 2.8 | 3.10 | 3.86 | 7.3% | 14.7% |
| Phillies | 117.3 | 473 | 3.14 | 2.84 | 3.17 | 3.20 | 5.3% | 20.1% |
| White Sox | 110.7 | 442 | 3.17 | 3.09 | 3.42 | 3.63 | 7.9% | 23.8% |
| Athletics | 122.0 | 495 | 3.32 | 2.95 | 3.63 | 4.19 | 6.1% | 13.3% |
| Marlins | 100.3 | 414 | 3.50 | 3.41 | 3.30 | 3.51 | 6.5% | 18.4% |
| Giants | 107.7 | 439 | 3.59 | 3.51 | 3.66 | 3.80 | 6.8% | 19.6% |
| Dodgers | 104.7 | 435 | 3.61 | 3.01 | 3.63 | 3.80 | 9.4% | 21.8% |
| Rays | 107.3 | 453 | 3.77 | 3.44 | 4.16 | 4.31 | 9.9% | 16.1% |
| Blue Jays | 109.7 | 443 | 4.02 | 3.78 | 5.45 | 4.32 | 9.3% | 13.5% |
| Tigers | 95.3 | 406 | 4.25 | 3.87 | 3.29 | 3.43 | 6.2% | 21.4% |
| Reds | 106.0 | 448 | 4.42 | 3.99 | 3.92 | 4.23 | 6.5% | 14.3% |
| Angels | 106.0 | 440 | 4.50 | 4.33 | 4.24 | 3.40 | 5.9% | 20.2% |
| Mariners | 107.7 | 454 | 4.51 | 4.43 | 3.62 | 3.88 | 5.9% | 18.3% |
| Mets | 96.3 | 418 | 4.58 | 3.92 | 3.62 | 3.25 | 7.7% | 20.8% |
| Indians | 84.0 | 367 | 4.61 | 4.18 | 4.19 | 4.31 | 9.0% | 13.9% |
| Astros | 108.3 | 466 | 4.65 | 4.24 | 4.14 | 4.02 | 8.2% | 16.7% |
| Diamondbacks | 108.0 | 456 | 4.75 | 4.33 | 4.17 | 3.68 | 7.5% | 18.4% |
| Cubs | 106.0 | 455 | 4.75 | 4.25 | 3.42 | 3.63 | 8.8% | 21.8% |
| Braves | 101.7 | 430 | 4.78 | 4.16 | 3.80 | 3.99 | 9.1% | 19.3% |
| Brewers | 102.7 | 441 | 4.91 | 4.82 | 3.91 | 3.60 | 7.0% | 21.8% |
| Padres | 104.0 | 445 | 4.93 | 4.15 | 3.92 | 3.85 | 11.0% | 19.8% |
| Orioles | 100.3 | 433 | 5.02 | 4.22 | 4.33 | 4.15 | 9.5% | 18.7% |
| Royals | 88.0 | 386 | 5.32 | 4.81 | 4.11 | 4.49 | 11.7% | 16.8% |
| Rockies | 88.3 | 390 | 5.40 | 4.89 | 4.96 | 4.83 | 9.5% | 12.6% |
| Red Sox | 94.3 | 413 | 5.72 | 5.63 | 4.92 | 4.22 | 9.9% | 17.9% |
| Yankees | 96.3 | 427 | 6.17 | 5.51 | 4.35 | 3.44 | 6.1% | 21.1% |
| Twins | 95.0 | 423 | 7.01 | 6.73 | 5.50 | 4.38 | 6.9% | 13.0% |
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
xFIP: Expected fielding-independent pitching
Twins pitching vs. the Yankees: 2-2, 6.09 RA
Twins pitching vs. the rest of the league: 3-11, 5.88 RA
Remember how the Yankees’ starting pitching was supposed to be a strength? Now they’re hoping a 40 year old who hasn’t pitched in a year can ride in and save the day.
CC should be fine. I think Nova’s a good bet for continued success thanks to the big improvement in his peripherals. Whether that makes him a 2 or a 3 I don’t know, but it’s probably safer to think he’s a 3. Kuroda will also be ok I think, but I don’t think he’s a 2 in the AL. It’d be nice if Phil Hughes wasn’t awful, because with Michael Pineda looking less and less likely to pitch this year Andy Pettitte could in theory fill one hole between Hughes and Freddy Garcia, but he can’t fill two. My guess is Garcia’s start on Saturday will be his last for this turn in the rotation.
Despite what they’ve shown to date I’d bet a reasonable amount of money the Yankees will not remain the second worst starting rotation in MLB by the end of the year. I think they have a chance to crack the top 20.
Friday, April 6, 2012
Looking Ahead To 2012 - Team Wrap Up
Opening Day is here, which means we can forget about projections and start complaining about games that count.
We’ve looked at the projections for most of the key players on the Yankees Opening Day roster, with apologies to Chris Stewart.
Russell Martin
Mark Teixeira
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Eduardo Nun-E-z
The Speedy Brett Gardner
Curtis Granderson
Nick Swisher
Andruw Jones and Jesus Montero Raul Ibanez
CC Sabathia
Hiroki Kuroda
Phil Hughes
Michael Pineda
Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia
$36M and a lost draft pick
David Robertson
Booooone Logan and Clay Rapada
Cory Wade and David Phelps
Mariano F’ing Rivera
So now I try to assemble that into a team projection. I’ll show the depth charts I used for the 2012 MLB Projection Blowout with CAIRO.
| order | player | position | pa | outs | avg/obp/slg | woba | br | def |
| 1 | Derek Jeter | SS | 575 | 392 | .286/.345/.384 | .325 | 69 | -7 |
| 2 | Curtis Granderson | CF | 625 | 421 | .263/.351/.502 | .366 | 98 | 0 |
| 3 | Mark Teixeira | 1B | 675 | 447 | .263/.359/.493 | .368 | 105 | 4 |
| 4 | Robinson Cano | 2B | 675 | 460 | .303/.352/.504 | .368 | 105 | 0 |
| 5 | Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 450 | 300 | .273/.363/.474 | .365 | 68 | 0 |
| 6 | Nick Swisher | RF | 625 | 418 | .259/.356/.455 | .354 | 90 | 4 |
| 7 | Raul Ibanez | DH | 400 | 279 | .266/.329/.458 | .340 | 55 | 0 |
| 8 | Russell Martin | C | 500 | 346 | .253/.347/.383 | .329 | 60 | 0 |
| 9 | Brett Gardner | LF | 600 | 410 | .262/.347/.371 | .324 | 76 | 16 |
| Starters | 5125 | 3473 | .271/.351/.449 | .350 | 726 | 18 | ||
| bench | player | position | pa | outs | avg/obp/slg | woba | br | def |
| Eduardo Nunez | IF | 375 | 271 | .262/.315/.392 | .310 | 44 | -6 | |
| Andruw Jones | OF | 275 | 194 | .221/.318/.413 | .321 | 34 | 0 | |
| Eric Chavez | 3B | 250 | 182 | .240/.296/.356 | .288 | 24 | 0 | |
| Chris Stewart | C | 100 | 72 | .228/.299/.328 | .283 | 9 | 0 | |
| Francisco Cervelli | C | 100 | 70 | .264/.328/.373 | .312 | 11 | 0 | |
| Ramiro Pena | IF | 50 | 37 | .240/.290/.340 | .280 | 5 | 0 | |
| Brandon Laird | 1B/3B | 40 | 29 | .247/.292/.407 | .304 | 4 | 0 | |
| Chris Dickerson | OF | 0 | 0 | .243/.321/.369 | .308 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jack Cust | DH | 0 | 0 | .243/.362/.420 | .349 | 0 | 0 | |
| Russell Branyan | DH | 0 | 0 | .240/.330/.458 | .341 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dewayne Wise | OF | 0 | 0 | .243/.286/.406 | .298 | 0 | 0 | |
| David Adams | 2B | 0 | 0 | .244/.311/.377 | .305 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bench | 1190 | 855 | .244/.309/.381 | .304 | 131 | -6 | ||
| Team | 6315 | 4328 | .266/.343/.436 | .341 | 857 | 12 |
woba: Weighted on-base average
br: Linear weights batting runs
def: Estimated runs saved compared to average using an average of zone rating, DRS, UZR and Totalzone
The biggest area of concern for the position players is probably Alex Rodriguez’s health. A weighted average of his past four years puts him at 459 PA. I’m also not particularly optimistic that Raul Ibanez can hit that projected line, although as half of a platoon it’s more feasible. To a lesser extent the team’s overall health is probably a concern, although in my mind it’s not a huge one. Losing Curtis Granderson or Robinson Cano for an extensive period of time wouldn’t be good since they’re probably the two most valuable position players on the team right now, but you can say that for any team losing one or both of their top two position players.
Regarding Chris Stewart vs. Francisco Cervelli, it’s a clear offensive downgrade. The question is how defense changes things. If we use Cervelli’s 2011 playing time as an estimate for the 2012 backup catchers, you’re looking at something like 137 PA. Let’s round that up to 200 PA in case Russell Martin misses some more time than expected.
200 PA of Cervelli projects to be worth 22 runs. For Stewart, 200 PA projects to be worth about 18 runs. As far as defense, I’m going to ignore pitch framing and blocking and just compare the difference between them in SB/CS. In their careers, that looks like this:
| player | inn | sb | cs | sba | cs% |
| Cervelli | 1295 | 93 | 23 | 116 | 19.8% |
| Stewart | 590 | 44 | 28 | 72 | 38.9% |
Runners may not run as frequently against Stewart if teams have more respect for his arm than they do for Cervelli’s, although runners have attempted 0.12 steals per inning vs. Stewart compared to 0.09 steals per innings vs. Cervelli in their respective careers. I’ll split the difference, which means 42 stolen base attempts over 400 innings. Using the linear weights values for SB/CS gives us this.
| player | inn | sb | cs | sba | cs% | rv |
| Cervelli | 400 | 34 | 8 | 42 | 19.8% | 4 |
| Stewart | 400 | 26 | 16 | 42 | 38.9% | -1 |
rv: linear weights run value of SB/CS.
A positive run value means more runs for the team stealing bases, so the difference between Stewart and Cervelli there effectively nullifies Cervelli’s offensive edge. Whether other factors of catcher defense change things beyond that, I have no idea.
Back to the rest of the team, the Yankees actually project to score more runs than any other team in baseball according to the aggregate projections I ran, although CAIRO sees them about nine runs behind Boston. They may be able to pick up a few more runs if they swap out Ibanez for Russell Branyan and/or Jack Cust at some point.
Most of the defense projects as average, aside from Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher, Brett Gardner and Nun-E. Overall they project about 12 runs better than average.
Of course, 90% of the game is pitching, so how’s that look?
| Role | Player | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP |
| SP1 | CC Sabathia | 220 | 220 | 91 | 82 | 19 | 64 | 203 | 3.57 | 3.24 | 3.23 |
| SP2 | Hiroki Kuroda | 190 | 190 | 91 | 80 | 21 | 44 | 126 | 4.57 | 4.01 | 3.92 |
| SP3 | Michael Pineda | 150 | 150 | 82 | 76 | 21 | 53 | 157 | 4.37 | 4.06 | 3.79 |
| SP4 | Ivan Nova | 150 | 150 | 78 | 72 | 16 | 57 | 89 | 4.93 | 4.50 | 4.52 |
| SP5 | Phil Hughes | 150 | 150 | 75 | 73 | 19 | 50 | 114 | 4.63 | 4.49 | 4.26 |
| SP6 | Andy Pettitte | 110 | 110 | 51 | 47 | 11 | 35 | 76 | 4.33 | 4.01 | 4.00 |
| SP7 | Freddy Garcia | 40 | 40 | 18 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 4.55 | 4.28 | 4.28 |
| SP8 | Manny Banuelos | 20 | 20 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 6.20 | 5.72 | 5.43 |
| SP9 | Dellin Betances | 20 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 6.51 | 6.02 | 5.75 |
| SP10 | Adam Warren | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.41 | 5.00 | 4.72 |
| Starters | Total | 1050 | 1050 | 510 | 469 | 117 | 335 | 813 | 4.38 | 4.02 | 3.98 |
| Role | Player | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP |
| CL | Mariano Rivera | 65 | 65 | 25 | 23 | 5 | 16 | 77 | 2.63 | 2.46 | 2.71 |
| SU | David Robertson | 70 | 70 | 28 | 26 | 5 | 43 | 109 | 2.96 | 2.77 | 2.84 |
| SU | Rafael Soriano | 60 | 60 | 31 | 29 | 8 | 26 | 69 | 3.82 | 3.60 | 3.64 |
| MR | Boone Logan | 50 | 50 | 23 | 20 | 5 | 19 | 46 | 4.29 | 3.76 | 3.71 |
| MR | Cory Wade | 40 | 40 | 20 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 28 | 4.44 | 4.08 | 4.31 |
| MR | Clay Rapada | 50 | 50 | 26 | 24 | 5 | 23 | 39 | 4.63 | 4.35 | 4.25 |
| LR | David Phelps | 50 | 50 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 14 | 24 | 5.58 | 5.16 | 4.88 |
| LR | D.J. Mitchell | 23 | 23 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 5.99 | 5.54 | 5.26 |
| Relievers | Total | 408 | 408 | 191 | 177 | 43 | 161 | 403 | 4.21 | 3.90 | 3.75 |
| Team | Total | 1458 | 1458 | 701 | 646 | 160 | 496 | 1216 | 4.33 | 3.99 | 3.91 |
Assigning innings to the staff was a bit trickier this year. The Yankees have a whole bunch of guys who could pitch in the middle/back of the rotation and injuries/circumstances may have a greater say in that than merit. There’s not a ton of difference in the projections of starters 2-7, although it’s probably fair to wonder how accurate projecting Andy Pettitte will be after a year off. But really, you can juggle the innings around between Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes and Freddy Garcia and probably not see a big difference. CC Sabathia is really the one starter the Yankees can’t afford to lose for any appreciable amount of time.
As far as the pen, it looked better before Joba Chamberlain got hurt. There’s still probably not an end-game you’d take over Mariano Rivera/David Robertson, and for all the crap I spew about the Soriano signing he should be solid, but an injury to either Mo or Robertson suddenly makes it look a bit thin. David Aardsma may be able to pitch at some point, but that’s uncertain.
So, adding this up, this is what CAIRO says.
| RS | 848 |
| Def | 12 |
| RA | 701 |
| wpct | .598 |
| p162 | 97 |
848 runs scored and 701 runs allowed plus 12 runs saved compared to average puts the Yankees at a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .598, which is equivalent to a 97 win team. CAIRO projected them at 96 in the projection blowout, which is probably a strength of schedule thing.
The other projections I ran say:
Marcel: 92
Oliver: 94
PECOTA: 95
ZiPS: 95
Average: 94
Clay Davenport has them at 93, the official version of Oliver has them at 96 and the official version of PECOTA has them at 94 wins.
I am fairly certain about one thing in baseball this year. The best team in the American League will be the best team in baseball. I’m not quite as certain that the Yankees are that team. They project to be, but Texas has represented the AL in the last two World Series (shamefully, but still…) and if Yu Darvish is a front-line MLB starting pitcher(I think he is), it’s not a stretch to see them as the best team in the league. If the Angels stop dicking around with Vernon Wells and put Mike Trout in their outfield they also have a chance to be the best team in the league, plus they’ll sweep the Yankees in the regular season even if they’re not. Detroit’s defense looks like a problem to me, and while they should score plenty of runs, I have a hard time seeing them as being better than all three of the Rangers, Angels, and Yankees. Of course, we also have the two chief rivals in the AL East to worry about. It wouldn’t take much in the way of good fortune for Boston/Tampa Bay or bad fortune for the Yankees to drop the Yanks into third place.
Still, it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Yankees fail to qualify for the postseason. I suppose losing any of CC Sabathia, Robinson Cano or Curtis Granderson for an extended period of time would be one such scenario.
According to the average team projections I ran their probability of winning at least the second wild card at 82.5%, which is the highest in baseball and 7% ahead of Texas who rank second. CAIRO likes the Yankees even more than that at 83.5%, but that ranks second to Texas’s 84.1%. On average, it took 92 wins to win the first AL wild card and 89 wins to get the second one, but these are the Yankees. Division or bust! Wild cards are for losers!
Since rilkefan asked about how these projections have fared in the past, I did a quick little chart. This compares the average of however many projections I ran that year to what the Yankees actually did.
| Year | Projected | Actual | Difference |
| 2005 | 94 | 95 | 1 |
| 2006 | 90 | 97 | 7 |
| 2007 | 95 | 94 | -1 |
| 2008 | 95 | 89 | -6 |
| 2009 | 96 | 103 | 7 |
| 2010 | 96 | 95 | -1 |
| 2011 | 92 | 97 | 5 |
| average | 94 | 95.7 | 1.7 |
| rms | 4.8 |
So the Yankees have been a bit less than two wins better than projected on average since I began running these in 2005. The methodology has changed, I think for the better, but it’s still limited. But I’m pretty comfortable the Yankees will be one of the best teams in baseball. That’s really all you can ask for as a fan when the season starts, right?
Yay Opening Day!
Monday, April 2, 2012
Looking Ahead to 2012 - Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia
Ivan Nova
Time to double up on these with Opening Day fast approaching. I’m hoping to have my projected standings up tomorrow, so today we’ll round out the rest of the opening day rotation by looking at Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia.
After a decent showing in his 2010 MLB debut, albeit one with shaky peripherals, Ivan Nova earned a spot in the Yankee rotation to start 2011. Nova’s main calling card as a prospect was his fastball velocity, but until 2009 he hadn’t really shown the type of performance you’d like to see in a pitching prospect.
Because of that track record, his projections heading into the season weren’t pretty.
| projecton | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR | BABIP |
| cairo | 22 | 116 | 130 | 72 | 67 | 15 | 49 | 72 | 5.59 | 5.20 | 5.04 | 5 | 0.5 | .303 |
| marcel | 17 | 71 | 69 | 35 | 32 | 7 | 26 | 52 | 4.44 | 4.06 | 4.20 | 12 | 1.2 | .287 |
| oliver | 37 | 155 | 170 | 90 | 82 | 18 | 69 | 97 | 5.24 | 4.79 | 4.80 | 13 | 1.3 | .302 |
| pecota | 20 | 119 | 136 | 75 | 69 | 15 | 53 | 66 | 5.68 | 5.23 | 5.19 | 4 | 0.4 | .303 |
| zips | 28 | 150 | 170 | 94 | 88 | 19 | 69 | 88 | 5.65 | 5.29 | 5.18 | 5 | 0.5 | .304 |
| average* | 25 | 122 | 135 | 73 | 68 | 15 | 53 | 75 | 5.40 | 4.99 | 4.97 | 8 | 0.8 | .301 |
| 2010 | 33 | 187 | 179 | 72 | 67 | 14 | 65 | 141 | 3.47 | 3.22 | 3.74 | 52 | 5.2 | .291 |
| 2011 | 27 | 159 | 155 | 70 | 64 | 13 | 57 | 95 | 3.96 | 3.62 | 4.14 | 35 | 3.5 | .279 |
RA/ERA: Runs/Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher(park and role-adjusted, using RA)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play
The 2010 line includes his minor league performance so ignore that RSAR/WAR. As you can see Nova exceeded just about every projection in 2011.
2011
So was Nova lucky? Probably a bit, but we do have some evidence of genuine development. For the majority of pitchers, their effectiveness ties directly into their command of the strike zone. It’s the reason Mariano Rivera has been the best closer of all time, for example. You can look at the percentage of batters a pitcher walks and strikes out (and or their K/BB ratio) as a proxy for strike zone command. But don’t just take my word for it.
The fear with Nova, and the primary reason he didn’t get much respect among more statistically inclined analysts was that he had walked about 7.7% of the batters he’d faced in the minors while striking out 16.8%, a K/BB ratio of 2.19. You can be a useful pitcher in MLB with a K/BB ratio like that in MLB, but translating that from the minors doesn’t give you much of a margin of error.
In 2011, Nova walked 8.1% of the batters he faced and struck out 13.9%. His K/BB ratio of 1.72 was less than stellar, and although he had a decent FIP of 4.01 it was buoyed by a lower than average HR/FB rate, a particularly impressive achievement in DNYS.
That’s not to say it’s all doom and gloom for Nova. Even his xFIP, which corrects for HR/FB rate, was a more than respectable 4.16, which is fine for a middle of the rotation guy. In addition to that, if we go a little deeper into his numbers we can find evidence of the aforementioned genuine development. In this case it’s in his splits through May 28, and his splits afterwards. Why that date? That’s the date his slider appeared to become another weapon.
| dates | ip | bf | h | hr | bb | k | ra | era | fip | xfip |
| 4/4-5/28 | 54 | 246 | 62 | 4 | 24 | 27 | 5.50 | 4.67 | 4.37 | 4.96 |
| 6/3-9/25 | 105 | 431 | 93 | 9 | 33 | 68 | 3.17 | 3.09 | 3.83 | 4.01 |
| Dates | fb% | gb% | ld% | bb/bf | k/bf | babip | hr/fb |
| 4/4-5/28 | 28.4% | 54.2% | 17.4% | 9.8% | 11.0% | .312 | 7.4% |
| 6/3-9/25 | 29.3% | 51.5% | 19.1% | 7.7% | 15.8% | .267 | 9.5% |
bf: batters faced
fip: Fielding independent pitching
xfip: Expected fip (uses league average hr/fb rate instead of actual hr)
fb% Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
gb% Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
ld% Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
bb/bf: walks per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
babip: batting average on balls in play
Nova’s ERA/RA was still a bit better than you’d expect from his peripherals post-slider, but they support the notion that Nova can be a capable starting pitcher in MLB. We always want to be cautious about drawing large meaning from small samples, but changes in walk rate and strikeout rate stabilize more quickly than changes in most other stats, for both pitchers and hitters.
So what about 2012?
2012 Projections
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 129 | 135 | 71 | 65 | 15 | 52 | 80 | 4.93 | 4.50 | 4.52 | 17 | 1.7 |
| davenport | 132 | 131 | 62 | 61 | 13 | 50 | 79 | 4.24 | 4.17 | 4.33 | 27 | 2.7 |
| marcel | 144 | 138 | 65 | 59 | 12 | 49 | 98 | 4.06 | 3.69 | 3.85 | 27 | 2.7 |
| oliver | 170 | 178 | 89 | 81 | 16 | 63 | 103 | 4.74 | 4.30 | 4.23 | 21 | 2.1 |
| pecota | 156 | 177 | 96 | 87 | 18 | 62 | 90 | 5.53 | 5.03 | 4.64 | 8 | 0.8 |
| steamer | 165 | 174 | 93 | 85 | 15 | 68 | 102 | 5.08 | 4.61 | 4.27 | 12 | 1.2 |
| zips | 178 | 189 | 94 | 88 | 20 | 60 | 111 | 4.74 | 4.44 | 4.33 | 20 | 2.0 |
| average | 153 | 160 | 81 | 75 | 15 | 58 | 95 | 4.76 | 4.39 | 4.31 | 19 | 1.9 |
| 2011 | 165 | 163 | 74 | 68 | 13 | 57 | 98 | 4.03 | 3.71 | 3.98 | 35 | 3.5 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average as frames of reference. League average is based on role (starters vs. relievers), and is not adjusted for park so unlike with hitters mentally adjust that up a bit.
The consensus now is that Nova can be a bit better than league average, particularly if you give him a full starter’s workload. That’s a big step up from his projections entering last year and that’s probably a solid #3 in an average MLB rotation, at a cost-controlled salary. I think his 16-4 record in 2011 may lead the MSM and some fans to overrate him, but that’s not his fault. You’d have to imagine the Yankees hope to see him more like a #5 should they get a healthy and effective Phil Hughes and Michael Pineda this year, but I don’t really like the odds of both of those things happening right now.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 194 | 186 | 94 | 85 | 16 | 67 | 133 | 4.34 | 3.94 | 3.84 | 38 | 3.8 |
| 65% | 168 | 168 | 87 | 79 | 16 | 62 | 110 | 4.64 | 4.22 | 4.18 | 27 | 2.7 |
| Baseline | 129 | 135 | 71 | 65 | 15 | 52 | 80 | 4.93 | 4.50 | 4.51 | 17 | 1.7 |
| 35% | 103 | 113 | 60 | 55 | 13 | 44 | 60 | 5.22 | 4.78 | 4.84 | 10 | 1.0 |
| 20% | 90 | 103 | 55 | 51 | 13 | 41 | 50 | 5.52 | 5.06 | 5.17 | 6 | 0.6 |
CAIRO is actually less sanguine on Nova than the average projection, but that 65% forecast is probably about what you’d expect if he were to repeat his 2011 with a bit less of the good fortune in HR/FB rate and BABIP.
I’d probably be more worried about Nova’s 6.86 spring training ERA if he hadn’t walked one hitter and struck out 14 of them. But since he has, I’m not. He may end up out of the rotation if everyone is healthy and effective this year, but that never really happens.
Freddy Garcia
I have to admit I expected nothing out of either Freddy Garcia or Bartolo Colon last year. At this point it seems like Garcia is superfluous, but at the time he was signed the Yankee rotation was CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Ivan Nova and 2011 Phil Hughes. That the Yankees subsequently added three pitchers who are probably better options for the rotation than Garcia isn’t his fault, and I’ve seen no evidence that he hasn’t acted professionally even though his short and long-term role on the Yankees has been in doubt. With Michael Pineda out with tendinitis and Andy Pettitte working his way back from retirement, Garcia will open the year in the rotation.
2010 & 2011 Projections
| projecton | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR | BABIP |
| cairo | 31 | 31 | 32 | 17 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 4.94 | 4.65 | 4.62 | 2 | 0.2 | .292 |
| marcel | 25 | 144 | 152 | 76 | 72 | 18 | 44 | 91 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.54 | 12 | 1.2 | .291 |
| oliver | 18 | 101 | 111 | 63 | 60 | 15 | 29 | 62 | 5.64 | 5.35 | 4.76 | -2 | -0.2 | .294 |
| pecota | 20 | 109 | 119 | 63 | 58 | 17 | 33 | 68 | 5.23 | 4.81 | 4.97 | 3 | 0.3 | .291 |
| zips | 15 | 82 | 90 | 47 | 44 | 12 | 23 | 51 | 5.16 | 4.83 | 4.77 | 3 | 0.3 | .295 |
| average* | 22 | 93 | 101 | 53 | 50 | 13 | 28 | 59 | 5.14 | 4.82 | 4.75 | 4 | 0.4 | .292 |
| 2010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #### | ###### | ##### | ##### | ##### |
| 2011 | 25 | 141 | 146 | 63 | 59 | 16 | 44 | 93 | 4.03 | 3.77 | 4.29 | 23 | 2.3 | .292 |
RA/ERA: Runs/Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher(park and role-adjusted, using RA)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play
I guess the most amazing thing is going from not pitching at all in 2010 to giving the team 141 strong innings. His FIP is probably a better indicator of how effective Garcia actually was, but he certainly blew away every projection.
2011
Garcia doesn’t throw had anymore. He came up throwing in the mid-90s but injuries have him sitting around 87 mph with his fastball, which has forced him to become more reliant on his secondary stuff. In some ways he was like a less-effective Mike Mussina circa 2008. Garcia increased his use of his split finger fastball last year, including one that was used in a physics lecture in Australia about how to curve a baseball. He had a higher than typical percentage of runners left on base and like Nova allowed a few less HRs per fly ball than an average pitcher. Throw in another year of aging and it’s probably a safe bet he won’t be quite as effective as last year, but here’s what the projections say.
2012 Projections
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 102 | 112 | 51 | 48 | 12 | 30 | 64 | 4.55 | 4.28 | 4.28 | 17 | 1.7 |
| davenport | 56 | 60 | 32 | 31 | 8 | 17 | 31 | 5.12 | 4.96 | 4.73 | 6 | 0.6 |
| marcel | 149 | 156 | 72 | 67 | 17 | 46 | 97 | 4.36 | 4.06 | 4.19 | 23 | 2.3 |
| oliver | 136 | 150 | 73 | 68 | 16 | 39 | 79 | 4.84 | 4.50 | 4.31 | 14 | 1.4 |
| pecota | 126 | 140 | 72 | 67 | 17 | 37 | 83 | 5.13 | 4.78 | 4.40 | 7 | 0.7 |
| steamer | 113 | 121 | 61 | 57 | 15 | 30 | 69 | 4.88 | 4.54 | 4.41 | 11 | 1.1 |
| zips | 128 | 143 | 74 | 69 | 18 | 40 | 75 | 5.20 | 4.85 | 4.64 | 8 | 0.8 |
| average | 116 | 126 | 63 | 59 | 15 | 34 | 71 | 4.87 | 4.57 | 4.42 | 12 | 1.2 |
| 2011 | 146 | 152 | 63 | 59 | 16 | 45 | 96 | 3.88 | 3.63 | 4.09 | 23 | 2.3 |
| LgAvg | 146 | 148 | 75 | 68 | 17 | 46 | 107 | 4.60 | 4.21 | 4.21 |
Not surprising that Garcia’s expected to drop across the board, although Davenport, PECOTA and ZiPS are expecting a major fall off. Still, as the ostensible seventh starter on the team you could do worse.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 152 | 152 | 66 | 62 | 13 | 36 | 108 | 3.91 | 3.66 | 3.55 | 37 | 3.7 |
| 65% | 132 | 138 | 62 | 58 | 14 | 35 | 88 | 4.23 | 3.97 | 3.93 | 27 | 2.7 |
| Baseline | 102 | 112 | 51 | 48 | 12 | 30 | 64 | 4.55 | 4.28 | 4.30 | 17 | 1.7 |
| 35% | 81 | 94 | 44 | 41 | 11 | 26 | 48 | 4.86 | 4.59 | 4.67 | 11 | 1.1 |
| 20% | 71 | 86 | 41 | 39 | 11 | 24 | 39 | 5.18 | 4.89 | 5.03 | 7 | 0.7 |
I think in this case the 35% forecast is probably closer to how Garcia will perform and how often he’ll pitch. There’s a lot of uncertainty with Andy Pettitte and Michael Pineda that could end up with the Yankees needing him more often than that though, and I’m not sure counting on a full season out of Phil Hughes is wise yet. Garcia could still be expendable if the Yankees feel his innings can be mostly replaced by some combination of Adam Warren, David Phelps, D.J. Mitchell, Dellin Betances or Manny Banuelos, but they probably have some time to determine that.
The Yankees’ postseason hopes if they should make it by some miracle may not be affected all that much by Nova and Garcia. You’d have to think the postseason rotation would contain some combination of CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, Michael Pineda and/or Andy Pettitte. But you do have to get there first, and Nova and Garcia can be big parts of that.
Sunday, March 25, 2012
NYDailyNews: Yankees’ Freddy Garcia a hit again in return to mound vs. Detroit Tigers
Garcia has a 2.91 ERA in four spring starts, allowing 10 hits in 12.1 innings while striking out 11 and walking four. Girardi said he probably won’t decide on the back end of the Yankee rotation until April 3 or 4, meaning there is still time for Garcia to impress.
Garcia says he doesn’t mind the competition for a job, noting that “it’s making my thinking straight you concentrate better on what you’re doing.” But he did admit, “The way I pitched (Saturday), I needed it. I’m glad I pitched good.
“I’m glad I could come back and pitch. That’s really important, because we’re in competition. I don’t want to lose any starts.”
It’s nice to see Freddy Garcia pitching well after getting hit in the hand by a comebacker a couple weeks ago. The Yankees may not have 16 aces, but Freddy and Phil have so far shown they could be in the starting rotation of almost any team outside of New England.
Friday, March 23, 2012
NY Times: Garcia Prefers to Stay With Yankees, but Would Consider Trade
“I want to pitch, man,” he said. “Be it here or somewhere. I hope it’s here.”
Garcia stressed that he had not asked for a trade and had no immediate plans to do so. But if the Yankees come to him with a proposal, he said, he is certainly willing to think it over.
“I am always open,” he said. “I’d like to listen to what they say. But it’s not up to me. I have to wait until next week and see what they want to do. I cannot start talking about it if nothing has happened yet.”
Seems to me that Garcia’s handling this about as well as could be expected. I haven’t seen any evidence that he’s complaining, just speculation that he would be.
Pettitte also said that when he arrived Tuesday, Garcia came up to him in the weight room and they had a nice chat about the situation.
“I like him,” Garcia said. “He just said, ‘We have to win.’ I said, ‘We’ll figure out something.’ ”
Garcia said that he was not upset when he first learned Pettitte was returning and that his reaction that day was misconstrued as frustration.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
NYDN: Girardi Throws Down the Gauntlet
For Michael Pineda, Phil Hughes, Freddy Garcia and Ivan Nova, Pettitte’s arrival will be a wakeup call.
That’s what Joe Girardi is hoping for anyway. He’s looking for Pettitte’s return to inspire the rest of his staff.
“If you don’t want somebody to take your job, pitch that way; it’s really simple,” Girardi said. “Let’s say the job was given to you and you were struggling; they’re going to look for someone to give the job to. You have to produce. That’s the world we live in in New York. It’s not like, ‘You’re this guy and we’re going to give you 20 starts no mater what happens.’ We don’t live in that world here.”
Is that really ‘the Gauntlet?’
Monday, March 19, 2012
Looking Ahead to 2012 - CC Sabathia
I haven’t gone through the rest of the bench but I’m going to wait until we have an idea of who will be on it on Opening Day. So it’s time to move on to the pitching projections. We’ll start with the ace of the staff, CC Sabathia.
2011
Sabathia had his best season as a Yankee in 2011. He put up an ERA+ of 147 which was better than his 137 and 136 marks in 2009 and 2010 respectively. Despite that, his season felt a bit disappointing because of how it finished. The turning point appears to have been his July 26 start against Seattle. Sabathia was dominating the Mariners through six innings. He had retired all 18 batters he faced and struck out 11 of them. There was a short rain delay, and CC returned to the mound to strike out Ichiro!
Unfortunately, Brendan Ryan then singled to break up the perfecto. CC struck out the next two hitters to finish off the seventh but he walked the first three hitters to start the eighth. He managed to get out of it with allowing just one run and some kid named Rivera closed it out.
So why do I think that game was some kind of turning point?
| dates | ip | bf | h | hr | bb | k | ra | era | fip | xfip |
| 3/31-7/26 | 169 | 686 | 143 | 6 | 45 | 156 | 2.93 | 2.56 | 2.48 | 3.37 |
| 8/1-9/21 | 61 | 269 | 80 | 9 | 14 | 68 | 4.40 | 4.26 | 3.45 | 2.70 |
| Dates | fb% | gb% | ld% | bb/bf | k/bf | babip | hr/fb |
| 3/31-7/26 | 30.4% | 48.2% | 21.4% | 6.6% | 22.7% | .293 | 4.2% |
| 8/1-9/21 | 28.4% | 43.8% | 27.8% | 5.2% | 25.3% | .425 | 18.0% |
bf: batters faced
fip: Fielding independent pitching
xfip: Expected fip (uses league average hr/fb rate instead of actual hr)
fb% Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
gb% Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
ld% Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
bb/bf: walks per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
babip: batting average on balls in play
I don’t like to attribute all babip fluctuations to luck, but the truth is Sabathia’s peripherals were arguably better over the last two months of the season. It just didn’t translate to his results.
In ALDS Game 1 vs. Detroit CC looked overpowering, better than Justin Verlander, but then the rains came again and he was out after two innings. He took the hill again for Game 3 but wasn’t good, and he made a final appearance in relief in Game 5 and gave up the run that ended up being the difference in the series.
CC had an opt-out in his contract after the season and there was some legitimate concern that he’d opt out, but the Yankees were able to keep him in the fold by adding a year to his contract at a salary that bumped him back up to being the highest-paid pitcher in baseball. Given the overall body of work over his first three seasons I don’t think many Yankee fans are upset about having him around for another year.
2012 Projections
Sabathia’s the clear #1 starter on the Yankees, and probably their most valuable player right now. Here are his projections for 2012.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 227 | 218 | 90 | 82 | 19 | 64 | 201 | 3.57 | 3.24 | 3.23 | 63 | 6.3 |
| davenport | 210 | 192 | 90 | 89 | 18 | 60 | 172 | 3.86 | 3.81 | 3.44 | 52 | 5.2 |
| marcel | 203 | 189 | 80 | 73 | 16 | 59 | 179 | 3.55 | 3.24 | 3.24 | 50 | 5.0 |
| oliver | 233 | 225 | 101 | 92 | 18 | 64 | 197 | 3.88 | 3.54 | 3.24 | 49 | 4.9 |
| pecota | 217 | 204 | 85 | 77 | 19 | 52 | 195 | 3.52 | 3.21 | 3.16 | 57 | 5.7 |
| steamer | 219 | 205 | 96 | 88 | 21 | 68 | 196 | 3.96 | 3.61 | 3.49 | 44 | 4.4 |
| zips | 218 | 211 | 92 | 86 | 19 | 63 | 189 | 3.80 | 3.55 | 3.36 | 47 | 4.7 |
| average | 218 | 206 | 90 | 84 | 19 | 61 | 190 | 3.73 | 3.46 | 3.31 | 52 | 5.2 |
| 2011 | 237 | 230 | 87 | 79 | 17 | 61 | 230 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.85 | 66 | 6.6 |
| LgAvg | 237 | 239 | 121 | 111 | 27 | 75 | 174 | 4.60 | 4.21 | 4.21 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average as frames of reference. League average is based on role (starters vs. relievers), and is not adjusted for park so unlike with hitters mentally adjust that down a bit.
For pitchers, I’m using the following projections.
CAIRO, my own projection system.
Clay Davenport, formerly of Baseball Prospectus’s projections
An unofficial version of Tangotiger’s Marcel, which were run using code provided by Jeff Sackmann.
Oliver, from the Hardball Times Forecasts.
PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus.
ZiPS, courtesy of Dan Szymborski at Baseball Think Factory.
A new addition for the pitchers is Steamer. The hitter projections weren’t ready when I started this so I didn’t include them, but according to this article Steamer was the only thing that prevented CAIRO from being the best pitching projection system last year. Steamer is similar to Marcel, but incorporates velocity data as well and it seemed to help it leap to the top of the 2011 projections.
There appears to be two distinct sets of projections here.
CAIRO/Marcel/PECOTA: 3.54 RA, 3.23 ERA, 3.21 FIP
Davenport/Oliver/Steamer/ZiPS: 3.87 RA, 3.63 ERA, 3.38 FIP
I think the first group is closer to the truth.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 245 | 220 | 87 | 79 | 15 | 60 | 233 | 3.19 | 2.88 | 2.67 | 79 | 7.9 |
| 65% | 236 | 219 | 89 | 80 | 17 | 62 | 217 | 3.38 | 3.06 | 2.90 | 71 | 7.1 |
| Baseline | 227 | 218 | 90 | 82 | 19 | 64 | 201 | 3.57 | 3.24 | 3.14 | 63 | 6.3 |
| 35% | 204 | 203 | 85 | 78 | 19 | 61 | 175 | 3.76 | 3.42 | 3.37 | 53 | 5.3 |
| 20% | 182 | 186 | 80 | 73 | 18 | 57 | 150 | 3.95 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 43 | 4.3 |
Sign me up for that 80% forecast.
The Yankees rotation is probably the deepest it’s been in years. That being said, there’s CC and there’s everyone else. I am pretty sure the group of Hiroki Kuroda, Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes and Andy Pettitte will project similarly to each other, with Freddy Garcia a bit behind them. But none of them can replace Sabathia. CC lost some weight this offseason to help reduce the strain on his knees. Of course he did that last year too but seemed to gain it all back by year-end.
Let’s hope he can stay healthy and give the Yankees another great year.
Sunday, March 18, 2012
NY Post: Garcia seems upset Pettitte back with Yankees
Garcia, who unlike most of those around him in the clubhouse doesn’t have a history with Pettitte, was asked if he thought the signing was good for the team.
“I don’t know,” he said. “Ask the people. I guess.”
Garcia isn’t the only one who figures to be affected by Pettitte, but he was the only one who didn’t seem to welcome the addition to the fray.
Should we expect Freddy Garcia to be happy that he’s further down on the starting pitching depth chart now?
Friday, March 16, 2012
NY Post: Sherman: Pitching hard to gauge based just on spring training
We just knew in the aftermath of Cliff Lee’s spurning and Andy Pettitte’s retirement that the Yankees were in real trouble. We wondered if Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia were closer to the Yankees’ rotation or their AARP cards. We viewed the battle among Colon, Garcia, Sergio Mitre and Ivan Nova for the final two spots in the rotation as, at best, a time filler until gifts arrived before the July 31 deadline.
Over in Red Sox camp, the big question was what to do with too much starting pitching. Boston was working to turn six — Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield — into five.
In Cardinals camp, ace Adam Wainwright already was lost for the season and so St. Louis’ chance of being champions had fallen from slim to “are we really still talking about the Cardinals winning it all?”
I figured it was better to read something like this than an article talking about how it’s too early to get concerned about Michael Pineda’s velocity while listing a bunch of reasons that we should be concerned about it.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
TGS NY An arm for a bat?
And with the addition of Kuroda and Michael Pineda to the rotation, the Yankees certainly would appear to have a surplus of starting pitching.
In that case, someone—either Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett or Freddy Garcia—has to go somewhere. It would be silly, of course, to ask you which should go. That is one vote Mr. Burnett would win in a landslide. But moving an underachieving 35-year-old pitcher with $33 million remaining on his contract is about as easy as moving a grand piano up five flights of stairs.
So it’s more likely going to be Hughes or Garcia. Hughes, obviously, has value in the bullpen. Freddy has never really worked there. So it would seem that Garcia is the more likely candidate if the Yankees chose to trade a pitcher for a DH. (Don’t ask me who they would get because I’m through trying to guess the GM’s next move; as in the Pineda deal, I assume Cashman will come up with a name none of us have thought of.)
I think trading Hughes now is a bad idea because his value is probably the lowest it’s ever been. I still think he’s got a chance to be a #2/#3 starter but his window of opportunity is closing. With CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda and Ivan Nova under team control for the next five years and with Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances working their way towards the majors another bad season probably pushes him into the bullpen or even out of the organization.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
CBS Sports: Miller: Savvy Yankees hit home run with Pineda, Kuroda
Just a few days after meeting with the representatives for free agent Edwin Jackson, the Yankees became the talk of the industry on what had been a slow Friday night with their stealth move for Pineda, who, at 22, already is within sight of becoming an ace.
“He’s got that kind of stuff,” a scout who spent part of last summer focusing on AL West clubs said Friday night. “If you wanted to be conservative, he’s a No. 2. He’s got velocity, he came up with a slider that got better and better last year and he throws strikes. When he gives up a home run or a hard-hit ball, it does not chase him out of the strike zone.
“He’s got that rare combination of stuff and control. He’s young, he’s not afraid, he’s big, he’s still growing and he’s got makeup. He’s a prize.
“And the Yankees will have, what, five years of control over him? He’s the kind of guy you build around. Holy cow.”
...
By season’s end, over 28 starts, he struck out 173 hitters while walking just 55 over 171 innings. His average fastball was clocked at 94.7 m.p.h., according to FanGraphs.What’s notable about that? The fastballs of only three other AL starters checked in higher: Texas’ Alexi Ogando, Detroit’s Justin Verlander and Tampa Bay’s David Price.
Kuroda? He turns 37 next month. But he gave the Dodgers 202 innings in 2011, going 13-16 with a 3.07 ERA. He’s a competitor with fierce pride.
“Solid No. 3,” the scout said. “He throws strikes, he’s got good stuff, a crisp fastball that’s deceptive and he throws harder than people think. He’s at 90 to 94 with sink down in the zone, a crisp breaking ball and a good split.
“He’s got out pitches. I’d love to have Kuroda.”
If you’re going to trade Montero, trading him for a potential ace with five more years under team control makes it sting a little less.
Anyway, the starting pitcher WAR I posted in the last thread were off, so here is the revised version.
Before
CC Sabathia, 220 IP, 6.1 WAR
Ivan Nova, 190 IP, 2.4 WAR
Phil Hughes, 175 IP, 2.8 WAR
A.J. Burnett, 175 IP, 2.1 WAR
Freddy Garcia, 150 IP, 2.6 WAR
Hector Noesi, 50 IP, 0.3 WAR
Adam Warren, 25 IP, 0.2 WAR
David Phelps, 15 IP, 0.1 WAR
Starters, 1000 IP, 16.6 WAR
After
CC Sabathia, 220 IP, 6.1 WAR
Hiroki Kuroda, 182 IP, 3.1 WAR
Michael Pineda, 168 IP, 3.2 WAR
Ivan Nova, 175 IP, 2.2 WAR
Phil Hughes, 100 IP, 1.6 WAR
A.J. Burnett, 100 IP, 1.2 WAR
Freddy Garcia, 100 IP, 1.7 WAR
Starters, 1045 IP, 19.1 WAR
So figure something in the area of a 2.5 win upgrade in the rotation, more if they can split those Burnett innings between Hughes and Garcia.
Thursday, November 24, 2011
MLB Trade Rumors: Yankees, Freddy Garcia Nearing Deal
The Yankees are nearing a one-year deal with Freddy Garcia, according to David Waldstein of the New York Times (on Twitter).The Yankees offered the right-hander arbitration earlier tonight.
Good move, especially if it’s only for one year. Garcia is probably not going to pitch as well as he did in 2011 again, but he should give the Yankees something approaching league average for as long as he can stay healthy.
Happy Thanksgiving to all, and thank you for reading.
Friday, November 4, 2011
NY Post: Garcia wants Yankees to bring him back
Freddy Garcia wants to stay in The Bronx, but even he knows he may have to wait to find out if that’s going to happen.
Garcia figures to be a good fit to return to the middle of the Yankees’ rotation, but with the team’s focus on pitching, they could turn their attention to a bigger name to slide in behind CC Sabathia before getting to Garcia.
“I don’t know if the Yankees are going to go for a high-priced guy first,” Garcia’s agent, Peter Greenberg said. “We’ll see what happens.”
Also, Agent for Wilson, Oswalt says pitchers love Yankees. An odd bargaining tactic when compared to the Cliff Lee approach from a year ago.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
CAIRO 2012 v0.1
I’m heading on vacation for about three weeks, and will probably not be online at all, so I’m releasing my 2012 CAIRO v0.1 now, even though they still need a bit of work. If you have any players you want projected that aren’t in here or see anything that looks off let me know in this thread and I’ll check it when I get back. In the meantime Jonathan will keep you covered on the major happenings in Yankee-land. I hope to return with the news that the Yankees have re-signed CC and won the posting for Yu Darvish, but we’ll see what happens.
Here are some of the key Yankees’ projections.
| Last | First | Age | Pos | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | WAR |
| Cano | Robinson | 30 | 2B | 676 | 620 | 97 | 188 | 42 | 4 | 25 | 100 | 5 | 3 | 42 | 84 | .303 | .352 | .504 | .352 | 95 | 4.1 |
| Granderson | Curtis | 31 | CF | 644 | 560 | 103 | 147 | 24 | 7 | 32 | 86 | 16 | 6 | 73 | 142 | .263 | .351 | .502 | .350 | 92 | 4.0 |
| Teixeira | Mark | 32 | 1B | 692 | 594 | 98 | 156 | 34 | 1 | 33 | 109 | 3 | 1 | 81 | 113 | .263 | .359 | .493 | .352 | 98 | 2.7 |
| Rodriguez | Alex | 37 | 3B | 459 | 398 | 65 | 109 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 78 | 6 | 2 | 53 | 82 | .273 | .363 | .474 | .351 | 63 | 2.6 |
| Montero | Jesus | 23 | C | 380 | 348 | 42 | 93 | 19 | 1 | 17 | 49 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 69 | .267 | .322 | .470 | .326 | 48 | 2.2 |
| Martin | Russell | 29 | C | 511 | 443 | 60 | 112 | 19 | 0 | 13 | 54 | 9 | 3 | 59 | 81 | .253 | .347 | .383 | .319 | 56 | 2.2 |
| Swisher | Nick | 32 | RF | 626 | 533 | 84 | 138 | 31 | 1 | 24 | 82 | 2 | 2 | 80 | 129 | .259 | .356 | .455 | .341 | 81 | 2.2 |
| Jeter | Derek | 38 | SS | 581 | 519 | 82 | 149 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 56 | 16 | 5 | 46 | 83 | .286 | .345 | .384 | .317 | 64 | 2.1 |
| Gardner | Brett | 29 | LF | 484 | 418 | 74 | 109 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 38 | 35 | 8 | 53 | 82 | .262 | .347 | .371 | .315 | 56 | 1.0 |
| Romine | Austin | 24 | C | 346 | 321 | 37 | 78 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 62 | .242 | .294 | .365 | .282 | 31 | 0.8 |
| Maxwell | Justin | 29 | CF | 267 | 233 | 33 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 31 | 79 | .220 | .315 | .397 | .303 | 29 | 0.8 |
| Laird | Brandon | 25 | 3B | 392 | 364 | 42 | 90 | 18 | 1 | 13 | 50 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 72 | .247 | .292 | .407 | .291 | 39 | 0.8 |
| Nunez | Eduardo | 25 | 3B | 281 | 256 | 34 | 67 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 20 | 35 | .262 | .315 | .392 | .299 | 30 | 0.7 |
| Jones | Andruw | 35 | RF | 315 | 271 | 38 | 61 | 13 | 1 | 14 | 41 | 4 | 1 | 37 | 76 | .224 | .320 | .431 | .313 | 36 | 0.7 |
| Cervelli | Francisco | 26 | C | 185 | 164 | 20 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 32 | .264 | .328 | .373 | .303 | 18 | 0.6 |
| Posada | Jorge | 41 | DH | 420 | 368 | 44 | 94 | 20 | 1 | 16 | 55 | 2 | 1 | 46 | 87 | .255 | .340 | .442 | .329 | 51 | 0.6 |
| Molina | Gustavo | 30 | C | 131 | 121 | 12 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 25 | .240 | .285 | .376 | .278 | 12 | 0.3 |
| Bernier | Doug | 32 | SS | 346 | 310 | 34 | 71 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 28 | 76 | .227 | .291 | .324 | .267 | 27 | 0.2 |
| Pena | Ramiro | 27 | SS | 201 | 183 | 23 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 35 | .240 | .290 | .340 | .272 | 17 | 0.2 |
| Curtis | Colin | 27 | LF | 231 | 209 | 26 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 44 | .244 | .312 | .391 | .299 | 24 | 0.2 |
| Dickerson | Chris | 30 | LF | 188 | 165 | 23 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 46 | .243 | .321 | .369 | .298 | 19 | 0.2 |
| Chavez | Eric | 35 | 3B | 149 | 136 | 15 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 31 | .243 | .298 | .364 | .282 | 14 | 0.1 |
| Golson | Greg | 27 | CF | 216 | 198 | 23 | 47 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 51 | .235 | .285 | .355 | .273 | 19 | 0.1 |
| Russo | Kevin | 28 | 2B | 384 | 350 | 41 | 83 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 73 | .236 | .295 | .329 | .272 | 31 | 0.0 |
| Last | First | Age | Role | G | GS | IP | H | HR | BB | IBB | SO | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| Sabathia | CC | 32 | SP | 33 | 33 | 227 | 218 | 19 | 64 | 4 | 201 | 3.25 | 3.23 | 64 | 6.4 |
| Nova | Ivan | 25 | SP | 30 | 29 | 168 | 176 | 19 | 67 | 2 | 104 | 4.48 | 4.52 | 23 | 2.3 |
| Rivera | Mariano | 43 | RP | 65 | 0 | 65 | 50 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 59 | 2.21 | 2.71 | 23 | 2.3 |
| Burnett | A.J. | 36 | SP | 32 | 32 | 190 | 198 | 26 | 79 | 2 | 164 | 4.88 | 4.52 | 19 | 1.9 |
| Colon | Bartolo | 39 | SP | 23 | 22 | 134 | 145 | 18 | 35 | 3 | 103 | 4.16 | 4.07 | 18 | 1.8 |
| Robertson | David | 27 | RP | 63 | 0 | 62 | 50 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 78 | 2.70 | 2.84 | 18 | 1.8 |
| Garcia | Freddy | 37 | SP | 18 | 17 | 102 | 112 | 12 | 30 | 3 | 64 | 4.28 | 4.28 | 18 | 1.8 |
| Hughes | Phil | 26 | SP | 22 | 16 | 95 | 97 | 12 | 32 | 1 | 74 | 4.72 | 4.26 | 13 | 1.3 |
| Soriano | Rafael | 33 | RP | 46 | 0 | 45 | 37 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 43 | 3.57 | 3.64 | 9 | 0.9 |
| Chamberlain | Joba | 27 | RP | 47 | 5 | 69 | 68 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 64 | 4.04 | 3.72 | 8 | 0.8 |
| Warren | Adam | 25 | SP | 28 | 28 | 147 | 173 | 18 | 57 | 0 | 85 | 5.28 | 4.72 | 7 | 0.7 |
| Wade | Cory | 29 | RP | 37 | 0 | 43 | 43 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 30 | 3.86 | 4.31 | 6 | 0.6 |
| Feliciano | Pedro | 36 | RP | 64 | 0 | 48 | 52 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 40 | 4.09 | 3.83 | 6 | 0.6 |
| Logan | Boone | 28 | RP | 56 | 0 | 43 | 45 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 41 | 3.82 | 3.71 | 6 | 0.6 |
| Ayala | Luis | 34 | RP | 42 | 0 | 46 | 48 | 5 | 17 | 2 | 31 | 3.99 | 4.40 | 5 | 0.5 |
| Phelps | David | 26 | SP | 28 | 27 | 152 | 185 | 23 | 50 | 0 | 88 | 5.44 | 4.88 | 4 | 0.4 |
| Prior | Mark | 32 | SP | 13 | 10 | 47 | 52 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 33 | 4.91 | 4.44 | 4 | 0.4 |
| Valdes | Raul | 35 | RP | 30 | 3 | 47 | 51 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 40 | 4.72 | 4.08 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Marte | Damaso | 37 | RP | 43 | 0 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 30 | 4.68 | 4.36 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Farnham | Jeffrey | 25 | RP | 35 | 0 | 37 | 36 | 4 | 19 | 2 | 30 | 4.53 | 4.51 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Flannery | Ryan | 27 | RP | 58 | 0 | 70 | 79 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 42 | 4.91 | 4.43 | 2 | 0.2 |
| Mitre | Sergio | 31 | RP | 31 | 2 | 51 | 52 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 28 | 4.55 | 4.58 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Laffey | Aaron | 27 | RP | 30 | 5 | 54 | 65 | 6 | 24 | 1 | 29 | 4.85 | 4.77 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Norton | Tim | 29 | RP | 39 | 0 | 45 | 47 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 40 | 4.98 | 4.71 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Noesi | Hector | 25 | RP | 31 | 10 | 79 | 94 | 12 | 26 | 2 | 53 | 5.44 | 4.80 | -3 | -0.3 |
| Whelan | Kevin | 28 | RP | 36 | 0 | 39 | 41 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 32 | 5.70 | 5.30 | -3 | -0.3 |
| Mitchell | D. J. | 25 | SP | 32 | 30 | 171 | 205 | 22 | 86 | 0 | 92 | 5.81 | 5.26 | -3 | -0.3 |
| Schmidt | Josh | 30 | RP | 60 | 1 | 75 | 81 | 9 | 46 | 1 | 57 | 5.48 | 5.06 | -3 | -0.3 |
| Venditte | Pat | 27 | RP | 61 | 0 | 82 | 94 | 12 | 35 | 1 | 58 | 5.55 | 4.96 | -4 | -0.4 |
| Isabel | George | 23 | RP | 41 | 0 | 42 | 45 | 7 | 29 | 1 | 33 | 6.03 | 5.80 | -5 | -0.5 |
| Reyes | Yobanny | 24 | RP | 45 | 0 | 48 | 53 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 35 | 5.93 | 5.60 | -5 | -0.5 |
| DeLuca | Evan | 21 | SP | 19 | 19 | 92 | 105 | 14 | 53 | 1 | 62 | 6.07 | 5.48 | -5 | -0.5 |
| Proctor | Scott | 36 | RP | 34 | 0 | 36 | 42 | 7 | 21 | 2 | 28 | 6.38 | 5.92 | -5 | -0.5 |
| Banuelos | Manny | 21 | SP | 26 | 26 | 126 | 147 | 19 | 72 | 1 | 88 | 6.01 | 5.43 | -5 | -0.5 |
| Betances | Dellin | 24 | SP | 16 | 16 | 73 | 82 | 12 | 47 | 0 | 55 | 6.29 | 5.75 | -5 | -0.5 |
| Stoneburner | Graham | 25 | SP | 22 | 21 | 111 | 137 | 19 | 45 | 0 | 64 | 6.10 | 5.48 | -6 | -0.6 |
| Kontos | George | 27 | RP | 30 | 5 | 56 | 65 | 11 | 27 | 0 | 39 | 6.03 | 5.64 | -6 | -0.6 |
WAR for position players does NOT include defense yet.
You can download the full spreadsheet here. I still need to add catcher defense and zone rating/total zone to the other fielders, and playing times are likely to be somewhat off. I need to double-check my MLEs since I usually find a mistake or two so don’t get too hung up on the minor leaguers’ projections just yet.
If I was to build a preliminary depth chart for the 2012 Yankees right now using the players currently under contract, it’d look something like this.
| Player | Pos | PA | BR | Player | Role | IP | R |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 580 | 64 | Sabathia, CC | SP1 | 220 | 87 |
| Granderson, Curtis | CF | 640 | 91 | Nova, Ivan | SP2 | 200 | 109 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 670 | 95 | Hughes, Phil | SP3 | 175 | 94 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 459 | 63 | Burnett, A.J. | SP4 | 185 | 107 |
| Teixeira, Mark | 1B | 675 | 95 | Noesi, Hector | SP5 | 140 | 91 |
| Swisher, Nick | RF | 625 | 81 | Betances, Dellin | SP6 | 50 | 38 |
| Montero, Jesus | DH | 550 | 69 | Banuelos, Manny | SP7 | 50 | 36 |
| Martin, Russell | C | 500 | 55 | Brackman, Andrew | SP8 | 0 | 0 |
| Gardner, Brett | LF | 550 | 63 | Rivera, Mariano | CL | 60 | 16 |
| Nunez, Eduardo | IF | 340 | 36 | Robertson, David | SU | 80 | 26 |
| Cervelli, Francisco | C | 250 | 25 | Soriano, Rafael | SU | 65 | 27 |
| Pena, Ramiro | IF | 50 | 4 | Logan, Boone | MR | 60 | 29 |
| Dickerson, Chris | OF | 300 | 31 | Wade, Cory | MR | 70 | 33 |
| Golson, Greg | OF | 50 | 4 | Chamberlain, Joba | MR | 60 | 30 |
| Laird, Brandon | IF | 50 | 5 | Laffey, Aaron | LR | 25 | 15 |
| Russo, Kevin | UT | 25 | 2 | Warren, Adam | LR | 0 | 0 |
| Romine, Austin | C | 0 | 0 | Phelps, David | LR | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 6314 | 784 | Total | 1440 | 737 |
That’s about an 86 win team, before considering defense. If we assume the 2012 Yankees would be about the same as the 2011 Yankees defensively (around +20) then you’re closer to an 88 win team. It’s not impossible to think some of the young pitchers will be better than CAIRO projects, but the offense looks like it could use a bit more oomph, particularly if we assume we’re only going to get about 450 PA of Alex Rodriguez. They probably need someone who can play 3B and outhit/outglove Eduardo Nunez for at least 40 games.
As far as the pitching staff, the Yankees probably should at least consider bringing Freddy Garcia and/or Bartolo Colon back. Garcia projects better than everyone but CC in the rotation, so I’d like to see the Yankees at least offer him arbitration. If he goes elsewhere, they should get a supplemental first round pick. If he can’t find another team he comes back on a one-year deal, which would be great. 150 innings of Garcia instead of Noesi as a starter makes the Yankees about two wins better.
So the Yankees have some work to do this offseason, IMO.
Monday, October 24, 2011
BBTF: 2012 ZiPS Projections - New York Yankees
While we wait for me to take the Marcels and change the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better, the first set of 2012 Yankee projections are out. With CHONE now being gobbled up by some MLB team, these are probably the best projections available now, and I know Dan Szymborski puts a ton of work into making it so.
I’ll just show the starters here..
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Robinson Cano L 2B 29 .299 .347 .506 156 609 92 182 41 5 25 103 40 76 6 3 121 Mark Teixeira B 1B 32 .263 .359 .495 147 562 88 148 32 1 32 109 76 112 2 1 122 Curtis Granderson L CF 31 .256 .346 .495 147 547 104 140 22 8 31 92 71 143 16 7 118 Alex Rodriguez R 3B 36 .264 .350 .474 108 405 62 107 20 1 21 82 51 89 7 2 115 Jesus Montero R C 22 .271 .333 .486 156 576 79 156 37 3 27 93 55 116 0 0 112 Nick Swisher B RF 31 .253 .358 .456 142 498 76 126 27 1 24 82 80 129 1 2 113 Andruw Jones R LF 35 .234 .335 .455 80 222 31 52 10 0 13 38 32 65 3 1 106 Brett Gardner L LF 28 .260 .352 .370 149 462 80 120 17 8 6 39 61 91 43 10 91 Russell Martin R C 29 .249 .346 .382 123 422 60 105 17 0 13 58 58 76 10 4 92 Jorge Posada B 1B 40 .238 .329 .414 105 324 35 77 15 0 14 47 41 80 1 1 94 Eduardo Nunez R SS 25 .273 .312 .379 141 480 57 131 23 2 8 48 26 64 21 7 81 Derek Jeter R SS 38 .268 .329 .362 129 542 78 145 22 4 7 58 46 84 14 5 82
And some selected pitchers.
Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ CC Sabathia L 31 3.55 17 8 31 31 218.0 211 86 19 63 189 126 Ivan Nova R 25 4.44 13 10 31 30 178.3 189 88 20 60 111 100 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Bartolo Colon R 39 4.77 7 6 20 19 111.3 121 59 17 32 78 93 Phil Hughes R 26 4.84 9 8 25 22 122.7 127 66 18 44 96 92 Freddy Garcia R 35 4.85 9 8 23 22 128.0 143 69 18 40 75 92 Hector Noesi R 25 5.24 6 6 32 14 103.0 120 60 14 35 68 85 A.J. Burnett R 35 5.31 9 10 28 27 159.3 170 94 25 70 128 84 David Phelps R 25 5.40 6 7 23 22 121.7 148 73 18 39 73 83 Manny Banuelos L 21 5.45 7 8 25 25 115.7 128 70 15 65 85 82 Dellin Betances R 24 5.66 5 7 24 24 105.0 111 66 15 72 85 79 Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ David Robertson R 27 3.06 4 2 69 0 64.7 50 22 5 34 87 146 Mariano Rivera R 42 3.12 3 1 53 0 49.0 44 17 4 10 43 143 Rafael Soriano R 32 3.14 4 2 67 0 63.0 50 22 6 21 74 142 Joba Chamberlain R 26 3.88 3 2 46 0 46.3 43 20 5 14 45 115 Boone Logan L 27 3.91 4 2 62 0 48.3 46 21 5 17 48 114 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Pedro Feliciano L 35 4.30 2 1 33 0 23.0 24 11 2 10 18 104 Cory Wade R 29 4.61 4 4 47 0 56.7 62 29 8 13 37 97 Luis Ayala R 34 4.62 4 3 44 0 50.7 56 26 6 19 32 96 Sergio Mitre R 31 5.08 1 1 26 2 44.3 49 25 6 17 22 88
Go to the link to see whatever players I didn’t include here.
Projections are inherently limited, so remember to take these for what they are. They are rough estimates of a player’s current talent level. They are not predictions for what a player is going to do in 2012, and they are not playing time predictions either.
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Yankee WPA through Game 3 of 2011 ALDS
Win probability added is a stat that tries to estimate how a player has contributed to his team’s chances of winning a game. I don’t think it’s a good statistic for trying to assess value because it is heavily dependent on the contributions of others, but it’s fun to look at if you want a rough idea of which players performances have helped/hurt their teams the most.
Positive means an increase in the probability of winning, negative means a decrease. More positive is more gooder.
If you have anyone in the mainstream media sitting next to you, please send them away. And don’t tell them there’s no Santa Clause.
| Player | WPA |
| Ivan Nova | 0.280 |
| Brett Gardner | 0.269 |
| Jorge Posada | 0.262 |
| Curtis Granderson | 0.081 |
| Russell Martin | 0.078 |
| David Robertson | 0.031 |
| Boone Logan | 0.029 |
| Cory Wade | 0.024 |
| Mariano Rivera | 0.005 |
| Luis Ayala | -0.019 |
| Eric Chavez | -0.043 |
| Alex Rodriguez | -0.060 |
| Robinson Cano | -0.074 |
| Rafael Soriano | -0.097 |
| Andruw Jones | -0.102 |
| Freddy Garcia | -0.122 |
| Mark Teixeira | -0.162 |
| CC Sabathia | -0.237 |
| Nick Swisher | -0.258 |
| Derek Jeter | -0.421 |
FWIW, here are the ten lowest WPA in the 2011 postseason to this point.
| Player | WPA |
| CC Sabathia | -0.237 |
| Koji Uehara | -0.252 |
| Nick Swisher | -0.258 |
| Daniel Hudson | -0.269 |
| Chris Carpenter | -0.286 |
| C.J. Wilson | -0.334 |
| James Shields | -0.354 |
| Brad Ziegler | -0.375 |
| Derek Jeter | -0.421 |
| Cliff Lee | -0.465 |
| Kyle Lohse | -0.542 |
Make it 11, so we can get CC on the list. The more to complain about, the better.
If only the Yankees had signed proven postseason pitcher Cliff Lee…
What the hell, ten best too.
| Player | WPA |
| Ryan Howard | 0.436 |
| Mike Napoli | 0.401 |
| Neftali Feliz | 0.388 |
| Yovani Gallardo | 0.371 |
| Ivan Nova | 0.280 |
| Brett Gardner | 0.269 |
| Lance Berkman | 0.263 |
| Jorge Posada | 0.262 |
| Jason Motte | 0.255 |
| Ryan Braun | 0.251 |
Friday, September 30, 2011
2011 ALDS Preview: Tigers vs. Yankees
The first obstacle in the quest to end the dreaded curse of The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske is the Detroit Tigers.
Seriously, it has been 694 days, 11 hours, 15 minutes, and 45 seconds since the New York Yankees have won a World Series. We have suffered long enough, haven’t we? When will this infernal madness end?
So how big of an obstacle are the Tigers? Let’s take a look.
First, I’ll acknowledge the obvious fact that the Tigers played in and won the AL Central which is probably the weakest division in the AL.
I’ll then say that it doesn’t matter. This is a very good team, and it’s not a stretch to envision them representing the AL in the World Series.
If you read the Rays/Rangers preview you can skip the next paragraph.
I don’t particularly find any series previews that focus on what a team did in the preceding full season of much use. It doesn’t really matter if a team scored 5.2 runs per game and allowed 4.2 runs per game over the preceding six months. Rosters change, injuries happen, players come and go, talent changes, and player and team performance is often subject to fluctuations that are not predictive. What I want to know is how many runs will the team and roster as currently configured score and allow. Because of that, for these previews I’ll be using projections in lieu of 2011 stats. Despite having my own system in CAIRO, I’m going to use the Hardball Times’s Oliver forecasts since I haven’t had the time to re-run CAIRO for this year. Oliver is updated weekly during the season and includes 2011 MLEs for players who saw time in the minors.
The biggest consideration in trying to see how any series may shape up is allocating playing time. So here are depth charts for the two teams, based on the assumption that each team will make 25 outs at the plate over 5 games and that pitchers will combine for 45 innings. Since I didn’t have official postseason rosters while writing parts of these, some of it is guesswork and is subject to change.
Here are the Oliver projections for the Tigers’ postseason position players.
| Name | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Jackson, Austin | CF | 21 | .263/.315/.374 | 14 | 2.24 | .303 | .311 | .300 |
| Kelly, Don | 3B | 21 | .268/.312/.413 | 14 | 2.34 | .314 | .286 | .317 |
| Young, Delmon | LF | 21 | .283/.314/.446 | 14 | 2.52 | .327 | .344 | .320 |
| Cabrera, Miguel | 1B | 21 | .334/.422/.602 | 12 | 4.11 | .435 | .455 | .429 |
| Martinez, Victor | C | 21 | .312/.365/.480 | 13 | 3.08 | .367 | .372 | .364 |
| Peralta, Jhonny | SS | 21 | .270/.324/.426 | 14 | 2.50 | .326 | .339 | .321 |
| Avila, Alex | C | 21 | .270/.351/.456 | 14 | 2.89 | .350 | .327 | .356 |
| Dirks, Andy | RF | 21 | .265/.311/.415 | 14 | 2.45 | .315 | .294 | .318 |
| Santiago, Ramon | 2B | 21 | .276/.319/.394 | 14 | 2.30 | .307 | .304 | .308 |
| Starter Total | 189 | .282/.337/.444 | 125 | 24.42 | .338 | .338 | .338 | |
| Bench | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Betemit, Wilson | IF | 0 | .259/.323/.424 | 0 | 0.00 | .325 | .298 | .334 |
| Ordonez, Magglio | OF | 0 | .282/.344/.412 | 0 | 0.00 | .334 | .352 | .329 |
| Raburn, Ryan | OF | 0 | .268/.317/.465 | 0 | 0.00 | .334 | .349 | .323 |
| Rhymes, Will | 2B | 0 | .272/.326/.361 | 0 | 0.00 | .303 | .283 | .307 |
| Inge, Brandon | 3B | 0 | .230/.304/.384 | 0 | 0.00 | .303 | .328 | .294 |
| Worth, Danny | IF | 0 | .229/.284/.328 | 0 | 0.00 | .272 | .283 | .263 |
| Kelly, Don | UT | 0 | .268/.312/.413 | 0 | 0.00 | .314 | .286 | .317 |
| Santos, Omir | C | 0 | .228/.255/.333 | 0 | 0.00 | .255 | .264 | .250 |
| Bench Total | ||||||||
| Team Total | 189 | .282/.337/.444 | 125 | 24.42 | .338 | .338 | .338 |
Outs: Outs at the plate (assumes 25 outs per 9 innings, calculated as (1 - OBP) times PA + GDP per PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
vs. L/R: Projected wOBA splits vs. LHP/RHP using regressed platoon splits
Rather than guess about how the Tigers may allocate playing time, I just gave the expected starting lineup all 125 outs.
The biggest problem here is Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera’s pretty much the best hitter in the AL. In fact, only one player has been a better hitter than him over the last three years, and that’s Albert Pujols. That projected wOBA of .455 vs. LHP is terrifying for Game 1. The Yankees probably don’t have much room for error facing Verlander, so the Cabrera/Sabathia matchup is probably going to be the one to watch. You can see by the OBP of the rest of the team that keeping people like Austin Jackson, Don Kelly and Delmon Young off the bases in front of Cabrera is going to be imperative.
The Tigers overall don’t have much of a projected platoon split, so the Yankees’ lack of left-handed pitching shouldn’t be a big deal.
I don’t think any Tigers fans would disagree that the Yankees’ lineup is better. Their hopes are going to lay on their pitching staff, and that’s not a bad position to be in.
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Verlander, Justin | SP1 | 14 | 4.8 | 3.11 | 2.89 | 3.05 |
| Fister, Doug | SP2 | 6 | 2.6 | 3.94 | 3.67 | 3.49 |
| Scherzer, Max | SP3 | 6 | 3.1 | 4.61 | 4.10 | 3.98 |
| Porcello, Rick | SP4 | 5 | 2.7 | 4.88 | 4.51 | 4.35 |
| Penny, Brad | SP5 | 0 | 0.0 | 5.43 | 4.85 | 4.65 |
| Starter Total | 31 | 13.3 | 3.85 | 3.54 | 3.52 | |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Valverde, Jose | CL | 3 | 1.3 | 3.90 | 3.61 | 3.72 |
| Benoit, Joaquin | SU | 3 | 1.1 | 3.25 | 3.01 | 3.10 |
| Alburquerque, Al | SU | 2 | 0.9 | 4.20 | 3.89 | 3.71 |
| Coke, Phil | SU | 2 | 1.0 | 4.40 | 4.07 | 3.68 |
| Pauley, David | MR | 2 | 1.1 | 4.76 | 4.41 | 4.44 |
| Perry, Ryan | MR | 1 | 0.5 | 4.61 | 4.27 | 4.12 |
| Schlereth, Daniel | MR | 1 | 0.5 | 4.85 | 4.49 | 4.31 |
| Marte, Luis | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.26 | 4.87 | 4.97 |
| Below, Duane | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.49 | 5.08 | 5.33 |
| LR | 0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Reliever Total | 14 | 6.4 | 4.12 | 3.81 | 3.75 | |
| Team Total | 45 | 19.7 | 3.93 | 3.62 | 3.59 |
RA: Runs allowed per 9, calculated as 1.08*ERA
ERA: Earned runs allowed per 9
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
Justin Verlander’s obviously the man here. He’s been the best pitcher in baseball this year and is a worthy MVP candidate. He’s backed up by mid-season acquisition Doug Fister, who’s been sublime for the Tigers. The Tigers are 9-2 in his 11 starts, and he’s pitched 70.1 innings and allowed just 19 runs. He’s faced 273 batters and walked 5 of them. Seriously. He’s probably not quite that good, but he’d project as the second-best starter on the Yankees.
Jim Leyland has said that he will not pitch Verlander on three days rest, so I’m giving Rick Porcello five innings. I don’t know if things would change if the Tigers go down 2-1. If they did that, they could throw Fister in Game 5 and not use Porcello in the rotation at all.
The Tigers’ defense has been about average overall, not much different than the Yankees. So I’m not going to bother with talking about that.
So, how about the Yankees’ projections?
| Name | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 22 | .306/.363/.416 | 14 | 2.83 | .345 | .369 | .337 |
| Granderson, Curtis | CF | 22 | .259/.342/.496 | 14 | 3.24 | .358 | .314 | .374 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 22 | .312/.359/.511 | 14 | 3.38 | .374 | .358 | .381 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 18 | .289/.367/.527 | 11 | 2.89 | .382 | .389 | .380 |
| Teixeira, Mark | 1B | 22 | .265/.357/.498 | 14 | 3.29 | .369 | .380 | .364 |
| Swisher, Nick | RF | 21 | .271/.364/.475 | 13 | 3.03 | .364 | .375 | .359 |
| Posada, Jorge | DH | 16 | .259/.345/.448 | 10 | 2.12 | .347 | .347 | .347 |
| Martin, Russell | C | 21 | .252/.345/.380 | 14 | 2.39 | .326 | .344 | .320 |
| Gardner, Brett | LF | 19 | .269/.353/.376 | 12 | 2.34 | .326 | .306 | .332 |
| Starter Total | 183 | .277/.355/.460 | 118 | 25.50 | .355 | .354 | .355 | |
| Bench | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Montero, Jesus | DH | 4 | .278/.329/.483 | 3 | 0.54 | .348 | .361 | .340 |
| Jones, Andruw | OF | 2 | .251/.344/.502 | 1 | 0.30 | .363 | .381 | .357 |
| Nunez, Eduardo | IF | 0 | .278/.308/.381 | 0 | 0.00 | .301 | .302 | .300 |
| Chavez, Eric | 3B | 4 | .245/.296/.355 | 3 | 0.38 | .288 | .257 | .300 |
| Romine, Austin | C | 0 | .246/.289/.364 | 0 | 0.00 | .287 | .300 | .283 |
| Dickerson, Chris | OF | 0 | .239/.315/.341 | 0 | 0.00 | .295 | .272 | .299 |
| Pena, Ramiro | IF | 0 | .239/.283/.327 | 0 | 0.00 | .269 | .256 | .273 |
| Cervelli, Francisco | C | 0 | .263/.314/.365 | 0 | 0.00 | .298 | .310 | .293 |
| Bench Total | 10 | .260/.319/.435 | 7 | 1.22 | .327 | .323 | .327 | |
| Team Total | 193 | .276/.353/.458 | 125 | 26.72 | .353 | .352 | .354 |
I’ve relegated Jesus Montero to pinch-hitting status, since DH vs. LHP is effectively a non-position vs. Detroit. I suppose we may see him pinch-hit for Posada if a one of Phil Coke/Daniel Schlereth is on the mound. Or he could get a start if Posada doesn’t look so good. Statistically, Posada’s projection vs. RHP is better than Montero’s so I suppose it’s the logical approach. I’m also not sanguine on A-Rod playing every inning so I’ve given Chavez four PA, and I’m assuming we may see Andruw Jones pinch-hit for TSBG in a late situation vs. a LHP where an XBH would be of additional benefit.
Oliver thinks the Yankees have the best offense in the postseason, and I’d agree with that. Unfortunately, the Yankees have to pitch too.
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Sabathia, CC | SP1 | 14 | 5.8 | 3.70 | 3.43 | 3.28 |
| Nova, Ivan | SP2 | 12 | 6.4 | 4.77 | 4.36 | 4.33 |
| Garcia, Freddy | SP3 | 5 | 2.6 | 4.60 | 4.36 | 4.33 |
| Colon, Bartolo | SP4 | 0 | 0.0 | 4.82 | 4.04 | 3.97 |
| Burnett, A.J. | SP5 | 0 | 0.0 | 5.21 | 4.82 | 4.49 |
| Hughes, Phil | SP6 | 0 | 0.0 | 4.45 | 4.12 | 4.17 |
| Betances, Dellin | SP7 | 0 | 0.0 | 5.36 | 4.96 | 4.83 |
| Brackman, Andrew | SP8 | 0 | 0.0 | 6.80 | 6.30 | 5.88 |
| Starter Total | 31 | 14.7 | 4.26 | 3.94 | 3.86 | |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Rivera, Mariano | CL | 3 | 1.0 | 3.03 | 2.81 | 2.89 |
| Robertson, David | SU | 3 | 1.2 | 3.75 | 3.47 | 3.05 |
| Soriano, Rafael | SU | 2 | 0.8 | 3.61 | 3.34 | 3.64 |
| Logan, Boone | SU | 2 | 1.0 | 4.32 | 4.00 | 3.77 |
| Wade, Cory | MR | 2 | 1.0 | 4.38 | 4.06 | 4.09 |
| Ayala, Luis | MR | 2 | 1.0 | 4.50 | 4.17 | 3.92 |
| Noesi, Hector | MR | 0 | 0.0 | 4.59 | 4.25 | 4.03 |
| Proctor, Scott | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.78 | 5.35 | 5.21 |
| Laffey, Aaron | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.56 | 5.15 | 4.59 |
| Kontos, George | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.38 | 4.98 | 5.02 |
| Reliever Total | 14 | 6.0 | 3.86 | 3.57 | 3.48 | |
| Team Total | 45 | 20.7 | 4.14 | 3.82 | 3.74 |
The assumption here is CC on three days rest. I’m assuming that Burnett and Hughes won’t pitch even though they’re on the roster, but if they do pitch their innings would probably just replace Ayala or Wade’s and it shouldn’t make a big difference.
The Yankees probably have the worst projected rotation in the postseason. CC’s as good as anyone, but after that there’s some concern about Nova and Garcia. I do think that projection is a little bearish on Nova since we have evidence that his new slider has made a meaningful improvement that wouldn’t be captured in a projection system.
Nova pre-slider: 226 BF, 9.3% BB/BF, 11.5% K/BF, 5.19 RA, 4.29 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 4.92 xFIP
Nova post-slider: 278 BF, 7.5% BB/BF, 15.1% K/BF, 3.52 RA, 3.44 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 4.03 xFIP
The Yankee bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this year, and although the projections think most of them pitched above their head they’re probably still better than Detroit’s from top to bottom. So the Yankees should be able to mitigate their slight disadvantage in the rotation by using the relievers aggressively. I can imagine that any David Robertson/Miguel Cabrera battles are going to be must-see baseball.
These depth charts say this.
| Team | Gms | RS | RA | wpct | p162 |
| DET | 5 | 24.4 | 19.7 | .600 | 97 |
| NYA | 5 | 26.7 | 20.7 | .620 | 100 |
If I play the series out 10,000 times in my Monte Carlo simulator I get these odds.
Yankees: 53.9%
Tigers: 46.1%
If the Tigers do decide to use Verlander in Game 4 and Fister in Game 5 they improve to about a .612 wpct/99 win team. Basically, those two teams are equivalent. The Yankees get the slight edge of one extra home game if necessary. In that case the odds look like this.
Yankees: 51.9%
Tigers: 48.1%
Thursday, September 29, 2011
WSJ: The Yankees Have Many Postseason Roster Decisions
Even with the season ending Wednesday, the Yankee postseason roster is still not set—as a number of decisions could come down to whether the Yankees play Texas or Detroit in the first round.
A few things are set in stone: CC Sabathia will start Game 1 on Friday, and Ivan Nova will start the second game on Saturday. Freddy Garcia looks like the most likely option for Game 3 on Monday, but manager Joe Girardi wouldn’t commit. Meanwhile, it seems likely that Bartolo Colon would not make the roster for the first round.
It’s probably much ado about nothing to think about what the best postseason roster might be since the Yankees are going to do whatever they’re going to do. Then again, blogging by nature is much ado about nothing, so why not?
As the excerpt says, we know CC and Nova are going in 1 and 2. We also know that Girardi intends to start CC on short rest in Game 4, if necessary. That would allow Nova to pitch Game 5 on normal rest. So they probably only need one more starter. It sounds like that will be Freddy Garcia.
Catcher is one area where things get interesting. We know Russell Martin is a lock. Francisco Cervelli is out for the postseason. The only true backup catcher in the organization right now (according to their thought process) is Austin Romine. Romine is not a major league caliber offensive player right now, and may never be one. In an ideal series, he’d never play. So I think I’d rather see the Yankees take just Martin, with Jorge Posada and Jesus Montero available in an emergency. Should Martin get hurt, the Yankees would have the option to add Romine to the roster. They would also have the option to add him to the roster in the ALCS if they made it there by some miracle.
The thing with Posada and Montero is that they’re likely to be DH’ing if they’re in the lineup. So if one of them has to switch to catcher while already in the lineup as DH, the Yankees will lose the DH. For that reason I think you need both of them on the roster.
On the infield, the question is what combination of Eric Chavez, Eduardo Nunez and Ramiro Pena the Yankees will use to backup Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira.
For the outfield, I think you’ll see Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher, Brett Gardner, and Andruw Jones. Chris Dickerson’s probably a long-shot.
In my mind, these are the locks.
Starting Pitchers (3)
Sabathia
Nova
Garcia
Relievers (6)
Rivera
Robertson
Soriano
Logan
Wade
Ayala
Catchers (1)
Martin
Infield (4)
Cano
Jeter
Rodriguez
Teixeira
Outfield (4)
Gardner
Granderson
Swisher
Jones
That’s 18 players, which leaves seven spots which can be filled by some of the following players.
Other pitchers
Burnett
Colon
Hughes
Laffey
Noesi
Valdes
Other catchers
Montero
Posada
Romine
Other infielders
Chavez
Laird
Nunez
Pena
Other outfielders
Dickerson
Golson
I think/hope the Yankees will take Posada/Montero in lieu of Romine. I hope that they’re not going to employ a strict platoon at DH, since it basically means Montero will sit on the bench for the entire series with Detroit. I was hoping they could get by with one backup IF, but given A-Rod’s health issues I’d imagine they’ll take both Chavez and Nunez.That would leave them three more spots for pitchers, but I don’t see carrying 12 pitchers in a 5 game series. So that opens up a spot for someone like Dickerson or Pena or Romine I suppose.
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Yankees.com: Burnett helps Yanks burn Red Sox in Game 1
NEW YORK—Nearly three years have passed, but A.J. Burnett has finally done what the Yankees asked when they chased him so passionately as a free agent: Beat the Boston Red Sox.
The right-hander hurled 7 2/3 strong innings on Sunday, defeating the skidding Red Sox, 6-2, in the first game of a day-night doubleheader at Yankee Stadium.
Burnett’s effort ended a string of 10 overall starts against the Red Sox—including nine as a Yankee—dating back to Sept. 19, 2008, taking advantage of a Boston club that continues to fret about their postseason chances.
While Burnett may not have a place in the first-round postseason rotation, where Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia could follow CC Sabathia in the American League Division Series, he offered some optimism for his inclusion in some form.
Burnett’s final line looks pretty good, but he was shaky early. Through four innings he’d thrown 32 strikes and 29 balls. Over the rest of the game he threw 32 strikes and just 12 balls, and ended his day by striking out the last two batters he faced. It’s only natural to wonder how much of his performance can be attributed to pitching against a Boston team that’s probably pressing versus him battling through adversity. I suppose we can say that we’ve seen that when A.J.‘s bad enough, he can make the worst team in MLB look good (the Twins), so this outing has to be viewed positively, although I’m sure it won’t be by some.
If I had to guess, he’s probably earned a shot at the postseason rotation, maybe as the #4 in the ALDS should the Yankees by some miracle be up 2-1. I’m fine with that, provided he’s got a short leash with someone like Bartolo Colon or Phil Hughes shadowing him. There’s no reason to think he’d be appreciably worse than either of them in a single start.
Tampabayrays.com: Four homers help Rays gain ground
ST. PETERSBURG—A home-run barrage coupled with an inspired pitching performance led the Rays to a 5-2 win over the Blue Jays on Sunday afternoon at Tropicana Field.
By winning, the Rays moved to within a half-game of the American League Wild Card-leading Red Sox, who lost to the Yankees in the first game of a day-night double-header on Sunday.
We’re about two hours away from a game that has the potential to be an absolute smorgasbord of schadenfreude.
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Yankees.com: With rout, Yanks keep pressure on Boston
NEW YORK—Jesus Montero’s powerful bat has had the Yankees buzzing for years, and now the Red Sox can consider themselves introduced to the young slugger’s potential.
The 21-year-old Montero homered and drove in four runs in a three-hit performance as the Yankees trounced the Red Sox, 9-1, on Saturday at Yankee Stadium.
New York pounded left-hander Jon Lester for eight runs in 2 2/3 innings, with Derek Jeter’s three-run homer highlighting a six-run second inning as Boston continues its September swoon.
Yankees right-hander Freddy Garcia completed a convincing outing as he lobbies for a start in the American League Division Series, limiting the Red Sox to six hits over six scoreless innings.
If you’d asked me before the game what I would have wanted ot see, it’d have been six good innings by Freddy Garcia and the Yankees pounding Jon Lester. Pretty much the perfect script, with Montero’s day a nice little bonus.
You have to think that this was the game in this series that Boston had the best chance to win, although I suppose one of the double-header games tomorrow will feature the House Money squad.
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Yankees.com: Pigs Fly
ANAHEIM—A little sunshine helped the Yankees to a desperately needed victory, as Mark Teixeira saw a key fly ball misplayed by Peter Bourjos en route to a 6-5 victory over the Angels at Angel Stadium on Sunday.
Batting in the seventh inning with New York down by a run, Teixeira sent a drive to center field that popped in and out of Bourjos’ glove as the outfielder squinted into a high blue sky, allowing Brett Gardner and Derek Jeter to charge home with the tying and go-ahead runs.
The miscue helped the Yankees finally get back into their winning mode after having lost four consecutive games in three different cities as they play out a taxing September stretch.
I suppose this means I can watch the replay.
So, in order for the Yankees to win this game they needed:
1) An error on a fairly routine fly ball by one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball. It would have been a game-tying sacrifice fly instead of a go-ahead two-run error.
2) Freddy Garcia pitching out of a bases-loaded, one-out jam in the fifth without allowing a run. That the last out of the inning was a routine grounder to Nun-E that actually got converted into an out makes it all the more remarkable.
3) Rafael Soriano pitching out of a first-and-third, one-out jam to preserve a one-run lead. Yeah, that Rafael Soriano.
4) Six defensive innings at catcher by the worst defensive catcher in the history of pro baseball.
Seems about right to me. I don’t know if the odds of all those things happening are worse than the odds of A.J. Burnett beating the Red Sox, but it’s got to be in the ballpark.
We also saw the debut of the catcher closer. I always knew it took a special pitcher to pitch the 7th, or 8th, or 9th. I had no idea that it took a special catcher to catch those innings. It was a cool deal for Austin Romine though, as he got to make his MLB debut against his brother’s team with his parents in the stands. As far as I can tell from reading accounts of the game, Jesus Montero didn’t embarrass himself behind the plate, so that was good too. The decision to pull Montero after six innings was a curious one, but given the family circumstances for Romine it makes a bit more sense in hindsight.
And I would never have believed it, but as oscar gamble’s afro (the poster, not his actual afro) noted, by winning today the Yankees won the season series with the Angels 5-4. I would never have guessed that.
I still hope we don’t see them again in 2011, or see them laying down for Boston in the ALDS.
Speaking of Boston, the Yankees have finally picked up a game on a team that’s lost something like ten games in a row. Yay!
Monday, August 29, 2011
Yankees.com: Swisher’s homer the difference in Baltimore
BALTIMORE—Nick Swisher’s red-hot bat helped support Freddy Garcia’s return to the rotation as the Yankees defeated the Orioles, 3-2, on Monday at Camden Yards.
Swisher belted a two-run homer off Baltimore starter Alfredo Simon, the outfielder’s sixth home run in seven games, and Garcia held the Orioles to a solo homer over six encouraging innings.
Making his first start since Aug. 7 due to a mishap that left his right index finger bandaged, necessitating a stint on the disabled list, Garcia looked like he didn’t skip a beat in his time away.
And now they’ll limp into Boston.
NY Post: Yankees plan to cut to five-man rotation
Speaking before yesterday’s 2-0 loss in the opener of a day-night doubleheader at Camden Yards, Girardi said he will attempt to shave his suspect rotation from six to five arms following Thursday night’s game against the Red Sox in Boston.
“I’m not going to base it on one outing,” Girardi said of judging Bartolo Colon (yesterday’s starter), Freddy Garcia (tonight’s starter) or Burnett (who starts Thursday). “I don’t think it’s fair. The bottom line is that we need to pitch well. If we’re going to win the [AL East], we need to pitch better.”
Don’t worry Joe, I’m pretty sure the decision will be made for you on Thursday.
What I find interesting is the possibility that the people on the bubble are/were Colon, Garcia and Burnett. I don’t know if the author is inferring this or if I’m reading too much into this, but it does seem to indicate faith in Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova.
If I had to pick a four man rotation entering the postseason today, I’d probably go CC/Colon/Nova/one of Hughes or Garcia. Actually, I’d let CC opt out and then go Colon/Nova/Garcia/Hughes.
We’ll see how that looks a month from now if by some miracle the Yankees win the wild card.
Saturday, August 20, 2011
WSJ: Yankees DL Garcia, claim Laffey from Mariners
MINNEAPOLIS — The New York Yankees made a move to beef up their bullpen on Friday, claiming left-hander Aaron Laffey off waivers from the Seattle Mariners.
The move helps address a balance issue, with Laffey joining Boone Logan as the only two lefties in the bullpen.
“He’s a guy that can give you some multiple innings, but he’s another left-hander for us,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “That’s why we went and got him.”
Laffey went 1-1 with a 4.01 ERA in 42 2-3 innings for the Mariners this season. Girardi said Laffey can be used as a situational guy or a long reliever, but that Logan will remain the primary lefty late in games.
To make room for Laffey, the Yankees placed right-hander Freddy Garcia (finger) on the disabled list and designated catcher Gustavo Molina for assignment.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
NY Post: Yankees can’t put finger on next start for Garcia
KANSAS CITY, Mo.—The mystery surrounding Freddy Garcia’s cut right index finger didn’t provide any clues to when the veteran right-hander will start again.
In fact, if Garcia can’t throw his signature split-fingered fastball in a bullpen session today at Target Field, he will not be able to start Saturday or Sunday against the Twins.
That would leave the possibility that Garcia could land on the disabled list.
I never thought losing Freddy Garcia for an extended amount of time would hurt this team.
Friday, August 5, 2011
The Monkey On Their Backs
By any reasonable viewpoint, the Yankees have had a great year in 2011. They lead MLB in run differential/Pythagorean record, are tied for the top in the best division in baseball and have gotten a lot of good performances from unexpected places. In particular, a pitching staff that was touted as the team’s Achilles’ heel all offseason has been a legitimate strength.
Despite all that, it seems like a lot of us haven’t fully embraced the good things that this team has done, and I think it really just comes down to one thing. This team has gotten its ass handed to it by Boston every time they’ve played this year.
So who to blame? Here are the splits for the Yankees’ hitters vs. Boston and vice versa.
| Player | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | IBB | HBP | K | SB | CS | BA | OBA | SPct | wOBA | BR |
| Derek Jeter | 44 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | .200 | .273 | .225 | .238 | 1.9 |
| Curtis Granderson | 41 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 1 | .229 | .341 | .571 | .383 | 6.6 |
| Mark Teixeira | 38 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | .121 | .211 | .121 | .171 | 0.2 |
| Nick Swisher | 36 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .188 | .278 | .281 | .258 | 2.7 |
| Robinson Cano | 36 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | .281 | .361 | .500 | .374 | 5.8 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 36 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | .194 | .306 | .419 | .319 | 4.4 |
| Brett Gardner | 35 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | .167 | .286 | .267 | .260 | 2.3 |
| Russell Martin | 27 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .227 | .370 | .636 | .419 | 5.1 |
| Jorge Posada | 20 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .400 | .333 | .342 | 2.3 |
| Andruw Jones | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | .182 | .182 | .455 | .259 | 1.0 |
| Eric Chavez | 8 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .750 | .535 | 2.2 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .571 | .667 | .537 | 1.8 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .286 | .167 | .231 | 0.3 |
| Chris Dickerson | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.240 | 0.9 |
| Total | 347 | 37 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 31 | 1 | 10 | 78 | 6 | 3 | .223 | .314 | .384 | .311 | 37.5 |
| Player | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | IBB | HBP | K | SB | CS | BA | OBA | SPct | wOBA | BR |
| Carl Crawford | 40 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .125 | .125 | .200 | .139 | -0.2 |
| David Ortiz | 42 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .324 | .405 | .676 | .451 | 8.8 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 38 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .371 | .421 | .571 | .430 | 7.6 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 44 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .235 | .386 | .500 | .382 | 6.6 |
| Kevin Youkilis | 42 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | .242 | .381 | .424 | .359 | 5.7 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 39 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .500 | .605 | .733 | .556 | 10.9 |
| J.D. Drew | 33 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .280 | .424 | .400 | .376 | 4.6 |
| Marco Scutaro | 22 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .300 | .364 | .450 | .357 | 3.3 |
| Jed Lowrie | 21 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .316 | .333 | .421 | .322 | 2.3 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 20 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .400 | .556 | .412 | 3.6 |
| Jason Varitek | 18 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .333 | .200 | .270 | 1.2 |
| Mike Cameron | 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .273 | .333 | .364 | .289 | 1.2 |
| Total | 372 | 60 | 92 | 18 | 2 | 12 | 59 | 44 | 6 | 5 | 58 | 6 | 1 | .290 | .379 | .473 | .372 | 55.7 |
wOBA: weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs.
Mark Teixeira has been abysmal vs. Boston this year with some support from Derek Jeter, Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner.
Here’s a “fun” stat for you. Dustin Pedroia has provided more offense in 39 PA versus the Yankees than Jeter, Teixeira, Swisher, Gardner and Jorge Posada have provided in 173 PA against Boston (10.9 BR to 9.4 BR). Maybe fun is not the right word.
Boston’s outscored the Yankees at close to a 2-1 rate and if you compare the BR to the actual runs there’s not a lot of evidence of good or bad luck in there.
Two other things I found interesting aggravating are the HBP and IBB columns.
Well, maybe looking at the pitching will cheer us up.
| Player | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | HBP | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Bartolo Colon | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 4.35 | 2.61 | 3.88 |
| Jeff Marquez | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 2.20 |
| Phil Hughes | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | 27.00 | 12.70 |
| Boone Logan | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 3.41 |
| Lance Pendleton | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16.20 | 16.20 | 20.00 |
| Hector Noesi | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.53 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12.27 | 12.27 | 9.75 |
| Ivan Nova | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8.31 | 8.31 | 4.58 |
| Luis Ayala | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.83 |
| Rafael Soriano | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.20 |
| Freddy Garcia | 0 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 11.25 | 10.13 | 9.20 |
| Mariano Rivera | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.20 |
| A.J. Burnett | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12.71 | 11.12 | 6.55 |
| CC Sabathia | 0 | 3 | 19 | 24 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 3 | 6.16 | 6.16 | 4.20 |
| David Robertson | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4.15 | 2.08 | 3.43 |
| Total | 1 | 8 | 79 | 92 | 60 | 55 | 12 | 44 | 58 | 5 | 6.84 | 6.27 | 5.57 |
| Player | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | HBP | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Dan Wheeler | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 1.20 |
| Daniel Bard | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2.08 | 2.08 | 4.12 |
| Jonathan Papelbon | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 0.60 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 4.91 | 3.68 | 6.47 |
| Jon Lester | 2 | 0 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.37 |
| Rich Hill | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| Matt Albers | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.70 |
| Clay Buchholz | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 5.91 | 5.06 | 5.08 |
| John Lackey | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10.80 | 10.80 | 6.80 |
| Felix Doubront | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13.50 | 13.50 | 11.45 |
| Josh Beckett | 3 | 0 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 4 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 2.72 |
| Tim Wakefield | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 6.14 | 6.14 | 5.52 |
| Bobby Jenks | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.20 |
| Total | 8 | 1 | 81 | 68 | 37 | 35 | 10 | 31 | 78 | 10 | 4.11 | 3.89 | 4.40 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
That didn’t really help.
It would have been nice to have Alex Rodriguez back for this series, although maybe Eric Chavez can stay healthy through Sunday (assuming he’s off tonight with Jon Lester pitching).
Pitching matchups for the weekend are Colon vs. Lester tonight, CC vs. Lackey tomorrow, and Garcia vs. Beckett on Sunday. So the Yankees are probably slight underdogs tonight, favorites tomorrow, and strong underdogs Sunday. Logic says we should be happy if they take one of the three, and that’s the most likely scenario, but after losing 8 of 9 to Boston, including all 6 at home, I won’t be happy with anything less than a sweep.
I suppose I could settle for a 2-1 series win.
Seriously though, barring catastrophe both of these teams will be in the postseason, so I suppose we shouldn’t get that worked up about whatever happens here.
Sunday, July 31, 2011
Yankees.com: Gardner, Garcia lead Yanks past O’s
Many held their breath in the fourth inning when Francisco Cervelli stepped to the on-deck circle instead of Derek Jeter. Everyone knew better than to think Cashman had traded Jeter, but it was unclear just how long the shortstop would be out after taking a pitch on his right hand to lead off the third inning.
Was anyone really holding their breath?
Brett Gardner provided a welcome distraction from those concerns, hitting a decisive bases-loaded triple with Cervelli on deck to key the Yankees’ 4-2 win. Two innings later, fears were quelled when the Yankees announced that X-Rays on Jeter’s right middle finger were negative, revealing just a bruise and making the captain day to day.
...
The Yankees were aided by what has become a typical Freddy Garcia performance in 2011—more substance than style, more movement than speed.In helping the Yankees close out this 10-game homestand with a 7-3 mark, the 34-year-old Garcia pitched his eighth quality start in his last nine outings, striking out six over six innings while surrendering two runs on five hits.
By winning three games in the last 30 hours the Yankees were able to finish up the homestand at 7-3, which is probably about as good as any realistic expectation.
The non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone, and it looks like the Yankees stood pat. I’m fine with that.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
NY Post: A-Rod on schedule; Chavez ready to rejoin Yankees
The Yankees may still need pitching—especially as far as a left-handed reliever is concerned—but they won’t feel utterly compelled to go find another bat before the trading deadline.
Not when they expect to have Alex Rodriguez back by the second week of August following the possible activation of Eric Chavez as soon as today.
Rodriguez, who underwent right knee surgery just over two weeks, is right on schedule for a return that originally was pegged at 4-6 weeks. Rodriguez is showing all signs of making the sooner rather than later return.
“I’ve had some communication on what he does. He sends me usually what he does every day. He’s feeling pretty good. He’s moving along,” manager Joe Girardi said last night. “I can’t tell you when we’ll see him. I don’t have that date. I think our doctors are discussing . . . when we might see him but he’s progressing fine. He’s on schedule.”
General manager Brian Cashman told ESPN Sunday night that he was eying “maybe the second week of August . . . That’s just us being conservative. I think we can push it and get him back sooner, but why? Our offense is strong.”
Eh, I don’t see the sense in trading for another lefty reliever. J.C. Romero should be capable as a second lefty if they really need one, and Boone Logan appears to have found whatever it was that worked for him last year. In theory, a healthy Chavez fixes the need for a bat and a better defensive 3B, but the notion of a healthy Chavez is probably not one we should get used to.
Obviously, the starting rotation is a concern in the postseason, because the fall off after CC Sabathia is pretty steep, but if the Yankees want to upgrade there they have to get someone better than each of Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Ivan Nova, A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes. People that fit that description are out there, but they’re not cheap.
I don’t suppose Andy Pettitte’s getting frisky?
Monday, July 25, 2011
Yankees.com: Yanks rain down on struggling Mariners
NEW YORK—In 2001, a 24-year-old Freddy Garcia anchored the staff of a Seattle Mariners team that matched a Major League record with 116 wins before falling to the Yankees in the American League Championship Series.
Ten years later at Yankee Stadium, the now 34-year-old Garcia found himself in the middle of this old rivalry once again, this time on the winning side.
A decade never seemed further away than it did Monday during the Yankees’ 10-3 win over the Mariners, prolonged by a one-hour, 57-minute rain delay to start the game.
Garcia pitched his seventh quality start in his last eight outings, sending the Mariners to their 16th consecutive loss while picking up his ninth win. That is half as many wins as he had during the Mariners’ historic 2001 campaign. And though he did not need much help from his new team Monday—he gave up just three runs in 7 2/3 innings—he received plenty of it from his old one.
If you’d told me that Freddy Garcia would have been the Yankees’ second most valuable starting pitcher as we headed into August I’d have assumed it was going to be a disaster of a season. Although Boston’s in the driver’s seat for the AL East crown, the Yankees would really have to falter now to miss the postseason, and the Chief’s been a very big part of it.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Yankees.com: Garcia, Granderson lead Yanks to victory
Sometimes the everyday nature of this game is what’s so great about it. You can be a goat one day, then a hero the next.
Such was the case for the Yankees’ Curtis Granderson and Boone Logan.
On Tuesday, the two were responsible for an ugly seventh inning that wound up handing the Rays a one-run victory. On Wednesday, Granderson’s catch and homer, and Logan’s strikeout, were critical in the Yankees’ 4-0 win.
Freddy Garcia played a big part, too, of course. After giving up six runs (five earned) to the Blue Jays on Friday, Garcia—like Bartolo Colon before him—bounced back in a big way with 6 2/3 shutout innings.
I still don’t want to see Garcia pitching against Boston, but I’m starting to look forward to his starts a lot more than I ever thought I would.
Which Players Have the Most/Least Hidden Value So Far in 2011?
I was goofing around with some of the stats on Fangraphs and elsewhere and thought it might be interesting to see which players’ values were perhaps obscured if you only looked at their batting lines. Here are the top 20, using Fangraphs’ baserunning stats, linear weights for stolen bases/caught stealing and an average of zone rating, DRS and UZR, which I’m labeling as aRS for average runs saved defensively. I think averaging several good defensive metrics tells us more than any single metric, but we should still be cognizant of the error bars inherent in the defensive numbers and what we think they tell us.
| Player | Team | SB/CS | aRS | BsR | Total |
| Elvis Andrus | Rangers | 4.6 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 19.8 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | 2.6 | 12.8 | 1.8 | 17.2 |
| Peter Bourjos | Angels | 0.9 | 10.2 | 1.8 | 12.9 |
| Ben Zobrist | Rays | 1.4 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 12.6 |
| Carlos Gomez | Brewers | 2.9 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 12.5 |
| Ian Kinsler | Rangers | 3.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 12.1 |
| Cameron Maybin | Padres | 2.8 | 7.4 | 1.8 | 12.0 |
| Howie Kendrick | Angels | 1.2 | 8.3 | 1.9 | 11.4 |
| Michael Bourn | Astros | 5.8 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 10.8 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | Red Sox | 2.4 | 7.8 | 0.4 | 10.6 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | Rockies | 0.6 | 10.4 | -0.5 | 10.5 |
| Alcides Escobar | Royals | 0.8 | 9.0 | 0.6 | 10.4 |
| Dustin Pedroia | Red Sox | 2.6 | 7.3 | 0.3 | 10.2 |
| Matt Wieters | Orioles | 0.2 | 10.0 | -0.2 | 10.0 |
| Ian Desmond | Nationals | 2.9 | 6.6 | 0.5 | 10.0 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | 0.5 | 9.2 | 0.3 | 10.0 |
| Pablo Sandoval | Giants | 0.1 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 9.8 |
| Gerardo Parra | Diamondbacks | 1.3 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 9.7 |
| Shane Victorino | Phillies | 2.1 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 9.6 |
| Brendan Ryan | Mariners | 0.8 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 9.1 |
I was expecting TSBG to top the list, but he’ll have to settle for second for now. I was surprised to see Alex Rodriguez so high up on the list, but he appears to be having a great defensive season, something that’s been magnified when we watch his current stand-in flailing and kicking and throwing the ball to the fans behind the home dugout.
And here are the 20 players whose value is most hurt by these statistics.
| Player | Team | SB/CS | aRS | BsR | Total |
| Mark Reynolds | Orioles | 0.3 | -20.5 | -0.6 | -20.8 |
| Yuniesky Betancourt | Brewers | -0.1 | -15.6 | 2.2 | -13.5 |
| Chris Johnson | Astros | -0.3 | -12.2 | -0.4 | -12.9 |
| Paul Konerko | White Sox | -0.2 | -5.1 | -7.0 | -12.3 |
| Aramis Ramirez | Cubs | -0.4 | -6.6 | -5.0 | -11.9 |
| Ryan Theriot | Cardinals | -0.6 | -10.9 | -0.3 | -11.8 |
| Yadier Molina | Cardinals | -1.7 | -7.0 | -2.4 | -11.1 |
| Wilson Valdez | Phillies | 0.4 | -9.9 | 0.0 | -9.4 |
| Miguel Cabrera | Tigers | -0.2 | -6.8 | -2.1 | -9.0 |
| Chipper Jones | Braves | -0.5 | -5.3 | -3.2 | -9.0 |
| Jhonny Peralta | Tigers | -0.8 | -6.5 | -1.7 | -8.9 |
| Raul Ibanez | Phillies | 0.4 | -9.9 | 0.5 | -8.9 |
| Ryan Howard | Phillies | 0.2 | -5.2 | -3.9 | -8.8 |
| Freddie Freeman | Braves | -0.7 | -6.3 | -1.5 | -8.5 |
| Felix Pie | Orioles | -0.3 | -8.1 | 0.0 | -8.4 |
| Cliff Pennington | Athletics | -1.3 | -5.5 | -1.3 | -8.1 |
| Eric Hosmer | Royals | 0.1 | -8.0 | 0.0 | -7.9 |
| Nate McLouth | Braves | -0.1 | -7.8 | 0.0 | -7.9 |
| Bill Hall | - - - | -0.1 | -7.5 | 0.0 | -7.6 |
| Danny Valencia | Twins | -1.1 | -6.0 | -0.4 | -7.5 |
And here’s the entire list of Yankees.
| Player | Team | SB/CS | aRS | BsR | Total |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | 2.6 | 12.8 | 1.8 | 17.2 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | 0.5 | 9.2 | 0.3 | 10.0 |
| Chris Dickerson | Yankees | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| Eric Chavez | Yankees | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | -0.3 | 4.2 | -3.1 | 0.8 |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Andruw Jones | Yankees | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Freddy Garcia | Yankees | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Bartolo Colon | Yankees | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Gustavo Molina | Yankees | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Brian Gordon | Yankees | 0.0 | -0.3 | 0.0 | -0.3 |
| Greg Golson | Yankees | 0.0 | -0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 |
| Boone Logan | Yankees | 0.0 | -0.6 | 0.0 | -0.6 |
| Jorge Posada | Yankees | -0.8 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -0.9 |
| Ramiro Pena | Yankees | 0.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | 1.3 | -6.2 | 3.9 | -1.0 |
| A.J. Burnett | Yankees | 0.0 | -1.1 | 0.0 | -1.1 |
| Francisco Cervelli | Yankees | 0.9 | -2.0 | 0.0 | -1.1 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.0 | -2.0 | 0.0 | -2.0 |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | 0.9 | -4.3 | 0.9 | -2.5 |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | 0.1 | -2.1 | -0.6 | -2.6 |
| Russell Martin | Yankees | 1.2 | -4.0 | 0.0 | -2.8 |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | 0.6 | -2.8 | -1.4 | -3.5 |
| Eduardo Nunez | Yankees | 0.9 | -5.1 | 0.0 | -4.2 |
Some of these numbers look off to me. Curtis Granderson hasn’t looked like anything worse than average in CF so far, and I’m a bit surprised to see Russell Martin so low on defense although he has allowed 56 SB which ranks fifth in the majors. I’m also fairly certain there’s no way Jorge Posada is any better than -20 in baserunning or that Eduardo Nunez is any better than -10 on defense. FWIW, Baseball Prospectus has Posada at -4.7 runs, which seems more realistic.
Saturday, July 16, 2011
NY Post: Garcia also battered by Blue Jays in Yankee Loss
When Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia signed minor-league contracts before spring training, the expectations for the veteran right-handers were low. So when they not only made the rotation but contributed heavily, people looked at their signings and applauded.
Now, in the first two games after the All-Star break, Colon and Garcia don’t look so good.
Oh no! The sky is falling!
No wonder the Yankees dispatched scout Jay Darnell to Denver to watch the Rockies’ very available righty Ubaldo Jimenez pitch Thursday night.
Hmm, interesting, but I’m surprised Jimenez is on the block. The Rockies clinched the NL West on April 29 so you’d think they’d like to hang onto him for the postseason.
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Probable Pitchers: Rays at Yankees, July 7 - 10
Thursday, July 7, 7:05 PM ET
Jeff Niemann (46.3 IP, 5.63 RA, 4.60 FIP) vs. Bartolo Colon (73.0 IP, 2.84 RA, 3.50 FIP)
Friday, July 8, 7:05 PM ET
Jeremy Hellickson (103.7 IP, 3.39 RA, 4.55 FIP) vs. Freddy Garcia (91.0 IP, 3.36 RA, 4.21 FIP)
Saturday, July 9, 1:05 PM ET
David Price (124.0 IP, 3.63 RA, 2.98 FIP) vs. A.J. Burnett (113.7 IP, 4.51 RA, 4.71 FIP)
Sunday, July 10, 1:05 PM ET
James Shields (134.7 IP, 2.74 RA, 3.32 FIP) vs. CC Sabathia (136.7 IP, 3.36 RA, 2.82 FIP)
Saturday looks like a guaranteed loss, and Sunday looks like a coin flip, so let’s hope the Yankees can steal the first two.
Friday, June 10, 2011
Yahoo: Joba’s injury leaves dark cloud over Yankees
The AL East has become the game’s most competitive division again with Toronto and Baltimore surging. Suddenly, the doomsday scenario where the Yankees tumble toward last place rather than surge for a division title isn’t so implausible.
Almost as if to prove the Yankees are indeed still the Yankees, Cashman looked toward the dugout of the Red Sox – a team that had already beaten his club seven out of eight times this year – and said: “We are certainly capable of beating those guys that’s for sure.”
Yeah Cashman, they have sure shown that they’re capable of beating Boston this year.
I can’t think of a series that was as flat out putrid as this one. I just hope that the Yankees resist the urge to make more stupid moves to shore up the bullpen, since they’ve done such a crappy job of putting one together and it’s done nothing but cost them money and wins and draft picks. They should sink with who they have on hand, and audition some of their minor leaguers to see who can be part of a good Yankee team in 2012.
The Yankees can still win the East, but in order to do it they’re going to need A.J. Burnett to pitch better than he has, they’re going to need almost every hitter in the lineup to hit better than they have, they’re going to need Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon to stay healthy and reasonably effective, and they’re going to need people like Boone Logan and Luis Ayala to be good in the bullpen, and they’re going to need to replace Ivan Nova with Roy Halladay.
The odds of all those things happening are about the same as the odds of the Yankees beating Boston.
But hey, at least we get to watch Derek Jeter get his 3000th hit.
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Just How Awful Have The Yankees Been Against Boston?
The Yankees dropped their seventh game in eight tries against the Red Sox last night in yet another inspired effort. It’s been frustrating to see the way the Yankees have rolled over for the Red Sox this year. What they’ve done is spotted Boston a six game advantage in the standings.
We know the won/loss record is bad. It’s even worse when you realize they’ve played three games in Boston and five(soon to be six) in New York and are on the verge of being swept at home twice. After today the Yankees will only play Boston three more times at home and they still have to play them six times in Fenway, which rarely goes well.
For a team to go 1-7 against another team while playing five of those eight games at home, they’d have to be around a 49 win team playing against a 113 win team. At this point I don’t doubt the Red Sox are better than the Yankees, but I’m not sure that they’re 65 wins better.
So let’s assign the blame.
| Player | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | HBP | K | SB | CS | GDP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAA |
| Russell Martin | 27 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .227 | .370 | .636 | 5 | 2 |
| Robinson Cano | 32 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .286 | .375 | .500 | 5 | 2 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.333 | 2 | 2 |
| Eric Chavez | 8 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .750 | 2 | 1 |
| Curtis Granderson | 36 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .219 | .306 | .500 | 5 | 1 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 32 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .207 | .281 | .448 | 4 | 0 |
| Jorge Posada | 16 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .286 | .375 | .286 | 2 | 0 |
| Andruw Jones | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .182 | .182 | .455 | 1 | 0 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .286 | .167 | 0 | 0 |
| Brett Gardner | 31 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .192 | .323 | .308 | 3 | -1 |
| Nick Swisher | 32 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .207 | .281 | .310 | 3 | -1 |
| Derek Jeter | 39 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .194 | .256 | .222 | 1 | -3 |
| Mark Teixeira | 34 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .138 | .235 | .138 | 1 | -3 |
| Total | 309 | 34 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 7 | 71 | 5 | 2 | 4 | .227 | .314 | .388 | 34 | 0 |
| AL Avg | 309 | 35 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 6 | .253 | .321 | .396 | 34 | 0 |
BR are linear weights batting runs. BRAA are BR above an average AL hitter, not adjusted for position.
Because the offense in MLB is down significantly this year, while that line looks awful relative to our normal context, in the context of today’s AL it’s not that bad. AL average line right now is .253/.321/.396. We also don’t know if that performance is good or bad in the context of the “strength” of the Yankees and the strength of the Red Sox. It’s really only useful in terms of comparing how the players stack up against each other. In this case you can see the Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira are the chief problems on offense, but there’s a whole lot of stinking going on there.
The team’s actual runs scored are a direct match for their batting runs, which indicates they’ve scored as many runs as they should have given their component stats and have not been unlucky or lucky in terms of how their performance has translated to runs on the scoreboard.
There’s more blame to dish out!
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | K | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAA |
| Freddy Garcia | 8.0 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 11.25 | 10.13 | 8.87 | -6.2 |
| A.J. Burnett | 5.7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12.71 | 11.12 | 6.22 | -5.3 |
| Phil Hughes | 2.0 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | 27.00 | 12.37 | -5.0 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 3.7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12.27 | 12.27 | 9.42 | -3.3 |
| Lance Pendleton | 1.7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16.20 | 16.20 | 19.67 | -2.2 |
| Ivan Nova | 4.3 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8.31 | 8.31 | 4.25 | -1.9 |
| CC Sabathia | 12.3 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 5.11 | 5.11 | 4.49 | -1.1 |
| Bartolo Colon | 10.3 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 4.35 | 2.61 | 3.55 | -0.1 |
| Rafael Soriano | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.87 | 0.5 |
| Mariano Rivera | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.87 | 0.5 |
| Hector Noesi | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.20 | 0.9 |
| David Robertson | 4.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2.25 | 0.00 | 3.12 | 0.9 |
| Boone Logan | 4.7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 3.08 | 1.2 |
| Luis Ayala | 5.3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 2.5 |
| Total | 70.0 | 80 | 52 | 47 | 12 | 42 | 4 | 52 | 6.69 | 6.04 | 5.58 | -18.7 |
| AL Avg | 70 | 67 | 33 | 30 | 7 | 25 | 3 | 52 | 4.28 | 3.91 | 3.91 | 0.0 |
RSAA are runs saved compared to an average pitcher using RA vs. league average RA. FIP is Fielding-independent pitching which focuses on a pitcher’s HR, BB/HBP and Ks against. Again, neither of these account for the context of the opponent so it’s more for comparison among Yankees.
I’m thinking the Yankees may want to skip Freddy Garcia’s next turn against Boston. The Yankees have allowed 52 total runs against Boston, and according to linear weights they should have allowed 49, so just like on offense there’s no evidence of bad luck here. They’ve pitched as poorly as the basic stats say they did. The Yankees have a team BABIP against of .281 this season against everyone but Boston. Against Boston it’s .311. Whether that’s on the pitchers or the defense or some combination of both, I don’t know.
It’s sad, but it’s gotten to the point where I am not even bothering to watch these games. When you finish dinner and turn on the game and see your team is already down 3-0 before they’ve even gotten an out, why watch?
I’d like to say I have a good feeling about CC Sabathia going today, but unfortunately with the Yankee offense backing him you get the feeling that anything less than perfection won’t be good enough.
Again, I’ll say I don’t think the Red Sox are 65 wins better than the Yankees. 60, maybe.
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Yankees.com: Garcia’s early struggles doom Yankees
NEW YORK—Freddy Garcia’s shortest start of the season put the Yankees in an early hole from which they couldn’t claw out, trailing the whole way in a 6-4 loss to the Red Sox on Tuesday at Yankee Stadium.
—
It was a painful night in more ways than one. In the first inning, Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira was drilled on the right kneecap by Lester, leaving the game with what was diagnosed as a contusion after X-rays were negative.
The Boston Red Sox are now 6-1 against the Boston Doormats.
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
Yankees.com: Granderson leads way in Yankees’ barrage
OAKLAND—Curtis Granderson homered and drove in four runs, Alex Rodriguez had three hits to knock in another three, and the Yankees rolled to a 10-3 pounding of the Athletics on Tuesday.
New York’s third consecutive victory went into the books for Freddy Garcia, who held the Athletics to three runs over seven innings, posting a win for the second straight start.
Gramderson continued to put his past futility vs. LHP in the rear-view mirror. Here are Granderson’s career splits vs. LHP, pre and post Kevin Long’s reworking of his swing in August of last year.
| Dates | Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR/650 | BB/PA | K/PA |
| 9/13/04 - 8/11/10 | vs LHP | 795 | 151 | 25 | 7 | 17 | 50 | 197 | .209 | .260 | .334 | .261 | 50 | .063 | .248 |
| 8/12/10 - 5/31/11 | vs LHP | 133 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 29 | .305 | .368 | .669 | .427 | 129 | .090 | .218 |
It’s only 133 PA, but it’s been one hell of 133 PA.
Freddy Garcia pitched another quality start, although his peripherals are still a bit worse than his actual performance so far. His BABIP against is probably unsustainably low, and he’s also got a very high strand rate of runners. If he regresses towards his FIP/xFIP he’ll still be pretty good though.
Tomorrow’s game is a must-win with a sweep by Anaheim looming to close out the road trip, so let’s hope A.J. Burnett can pitch a bit better than he did against Seattle last time out.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Yankees.com: Andruw homers twice as long ball lifts Yankees
NEW YORK—A day removed from his team’s second walk-off win of the season, a flashback to the fun of his title-winning team of two years ago, manager Joe Girardi offered a caveat when discussing the boost it could give the Yankees.
“As we know, momentum starts and stops with your starting pitcher,” Girardi said, “and Freddy’s throwing the ball well for us, and we need him to do it again.”
Freddy Garcia threw the ball well, allowing three runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings. But it was the long ball that helped the Yankees take the rubber match of their three-game series with the Blue Jays on Wednesday with a 7-3 win.
I keep waiting for Garcia to get shelled. I hope I’m waiting for another six months.
In other news, the worst signing ever continues to get even worse.
Yankees setup man Rafael Soriano has an inflamed ligament in his right elbow that could keep the former All-Star out up to two months. Yankees GM Brian Cashman said that Soriano was examined Wednesday by orthopedist Dr. James Andrews in Pensacola, Fla. Andrews recommended that Soriano rest the elbow for about two weeks before beginning a light throwing program. Cashman doesn’t think Soriano will be able to face hitters for at least six weeks.
So the draft pick the Yankees gave away will be used before Soriano’s pitching again. I wouldn’t be surprised if whoever the Rays draft with that pick ends up providing more value over the next three years than Soriano, even ignoring contracts. In fact, I’d bet on it.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Yankees.com: A-Rod, timely relief buoy Yankees
NEW YORK—Alex Rodriguez slashed a two-run single that put the Yankees ahead and Dave Robertson escaped from a key seventh-inning jam, securing a 3-1 victory over the Royals on Tuesday.
Rodriguez has been fiddling with a mechanical adjustment to his leg kick, hoping to escape a power drought that has followed the slugger for weeks, and he now has even more reason to be encouraged by the results.
The Yankees took the lead in the fifth inning, as Kansas City starter Kyle Davies walked Brett Gardner and allowed a one-out Derek Jeter single before hitting Mark Teixeira in the left thigh with a two-out pitch.
Jeter went 2 for 4 and both hits were hit solidly up the middle. He’s now hitting .283/.336/.354 in a league where the average SS has hit .254/.310/.352 (entering tonight). I don’t know if he’s back or not, but I am less pessimistic than I was a week ago.
Freddy Garcia had another solid outing after being hit a bit harder in his last two starts, although he allowed the first two runners to reach in the seventh, which brought Robertson into the game. Robertson made things interesting by loading the bases with one out, but he came back to fan the last two hitters of the inning. Joba Chamberlain pitched what might have been his best inning of 2011, and Mo closed it out with a nice stab on a shot up the middle that he was able to turn into a double play.
Hopefully they can keep it going tomorrow.
Monday, May 2, 2011
NY Post: Sherman: 3UP: Pelfrey, Nova and Colon
2. Veterans, at least the right veterans, do matter on a team beyond their own performance.
When I was at Yankee Stadium on Saturday, a member of the team told me something I found interesting: After Ivan Nova’s poor relief appearance on April 19 in Toronto, Freddy Garcia pulled the young righty aside. Usually pitchers pair up with the same partner every day to play catch and Garcia and Nova are partners. Garcia asked Nova what pitch he thought was most important to his repertoire. Nova replied his curveball. So Garcia told Nova that the youngster was not working on the pitch enough. So Garcia said this is what would be done moving forward: While the two played catch, Nova would flip 40-plus curveballs. Garcia’s point was that catch is not just about loosening an arm or keeping it fit. The idea is never to do anything without meaning. Garcia wanted Nova to get such a good feel for the curve that he could throw it in any count comfortably.
...
Well, the early results for Nova since his tutorial with Garcia are stunning. He has just worked back-to-back games of 6 1/3 innings, which are the longest stints of his major-league career. He has given up a total of three runs and so his ERA in those two games is 2.13 to go along with a .234 batting average against/.321 on-base percentage/.319 slugging percentage. In his first four outings of the year, which included the one relief appearance, Nova’s ERA was 7.63 with slash lines of: .306/.411/.452.He pretty much threw the American League a curve.
I like reading about stuff like this. It’s the sort of thing that can’t necessarily be captured statistically.
Friday, April 29, 2011
MLB.com: Bats intimidate, but starters set up Yanks
The Yankees’ only pitching downside in this series came from setup man Rafael Soriano, whose early-season struggles continued when he gave up a game-turning two-run homer to Paul Konerko in the eighth inning on Tuesday.
But the starters’ performances, particularly from Nova and Colon—a breakthrough of sorts and an apparent restoration, respectively—offered substantial encouragement. And then the Yankees became the Yankees with the bats.
Losing Phil Hughes hurts, but if Burnett can give the Yankees what Hughes projected to give them and Freddy Garcia can give them what Burnett projected to give them then they’re essentially where they looked to be heading into the season, hoping they can get enough out of the 4/5 spots to contend. Between Bartolo Colon and Ivan Nova, I think they’ve got that, although Colon’s health is probably going to be a concern all year.
I do wish they’d stop hitting all these homers though. You can’t win games when you homer all the time.
Monday, April 25, 2011
USA Today: Yankees pitcher Phil Hughes has setback in rehab routine
Injured Yankees pitcher Phil Hughes had a setback during a throwing session today and will see a doctor, according to initial reports from manager Joe Girardi’s pre-game meeting with reporters.
An injury makes more sense than inadequate arm strength unfortunately. Hopefully it’s not a serious issue. This is an example of why I fully supported the Yankees getting as much rotation depth as possible, even mediocrities like Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia and Kevin Millwood. They’re going to need it.
Saturday, April 23, 2011
NYDN: Yankees rainout in Baltimore has CC Sabathia still looking for his first win of the season
BALTIMORE - The Yankees and Orioles were postponed for the second time in 10 days, as steady rain pelted the Baltimore area Friday.
“One Orioles security guy said, ‘It’s supposed to stop at 4 a.m.,’” Joe Girardi said. “I said, ‘That’s a good time to start a game.’”
CC Sabathia was scheduled to start for the Yankees and will get pushed back to Saturday night. Girardi hadn’t decided whether Freddy Garcia or Ivan Nova - who were supposed to pitch Saturday and Sunday - would start Sunday’s game.
I say go with Garcia.
The Yankees should probably trade CC and cash to the Diamondbacks for Armando Galarraga, who’s put up a stellar 3-0 record. 3-0 with a 6.00 ERA is far more valuable than 0-1 with a 2.52 ERA.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
2011 Yankees projected vs actual through April 19
As a card-carrying member of the baseball stat nerd cult, I understand that we shouldn’t read too much into the results of early-season performance. We should generally trust that a player’s performance will more often than not regress towards their expected performance as the season moves on.
That doesn’t mean the data we have so far this season is useless in terms of telling us what’s happened. It just means we shouldn’t expect it to tell us all that much about what will happen.
Here’s a quick comparison of the differences between the Yankees’ projections and actual performance so far.
| player | team | pa | ytd_woba | proj_woba | ytd-proj |
| Rodriguez, Alex | Yankees | 50 | .531 | .376 | 6.8 |
| Martin, Russell | Yankees | 52 | .398 | .328 | 3.1 |
| Chavez, Eric | Yankees | 20 | .421 | .285 | 2.4 |
| Granderson, Curtis | Yankees | 55 | .377 | .345 | 1.5 |
| Jones, Andruw | Yankees | 12 | .414 | .326 | 0.9 |
| Cano, Robinson | Yankees | 64 | .375 | .360 | 0.8 |
| Teixeira, Mark | Yankees | 66 | .395 | .383 | 0.7 |
| Posada, Jorge | Yankees | 54 | .322 | .344 | -1.0 |
| Swisher, Nick | Yankees | 64 | .309 | .356 | -2.6 |
| Jeter, Derek | Yankees | 66 | .262 | .332 | -4.0 |
| Gardner, Brett | Yankees | 51 | .182 | .325 | -6.3 |
| Total | 554 | .352 | .348 | 2 |
ytd_woba year to date weighted on-base average
proj_woba average projected wOBA
ytd-proj run value of difference between projected and year to date woba
Brett Gardner’s the biggest disappointment so far offensively. Whether’s it’s just a rough start or indicative of something that we should worry about is something we just don’t know yet.
Did you know Gardner’s not the player who’s under-peforming his projection by the most? Here’s that list.
| player | team | pa | ytd_woba | proj_woba | ytd-proj |
| Crawford, Carl | Red Sox | 66 | .166 | .351 | -10.6 |
| Loney, James | Dodgers | 71 | .192 | .329 | -8.5 |
| Pujols, Albert | Cardinals | 73 | .308 | .431 | -7.8 |
| Johnson, Dan | Rays | 54 | .196 | .350 | -7.2 |
| Alvarez, Pedro | Pirates | 65 | .218 | .340 | -6.9 |
| Wells, Vernon | Angels | 74 | .220 | .325 | -6.7 |
| Morneau, Justin | Twins | 56 | .246 | .381 | -6.6 |
| Choo, Shin-Soo | Indians | 74 | .271 | .372 | -6.5 |
| Jackson, Austin | Tigers | 72 | .213 | .315 | -6.4 |
| Gardner, Brett | Yankees | 51 | .182 | .325 | -6.3 |
Apparently Austin Jackson did not have the BABIP skill to maintain his 2010 performance, at least so far.
The net on the offense is actually fine. As a unit they’ve collectively slightly overperformed, but not to a large extent.
The pitching is the real problem.
| Last, First | mlbam_id | ip | ytd_ra | ytd_fip | p_ra | p_fip | diff_ra | diff_fip |
| Garcia, Freddy | 150119 | 6.0 | 0.00 | 3.37 | 4.96 | 4.75 | 3.3 | 0.9 |
| Sabathia, CC | 282332 | 25.0 | 2.88 | 3.08 | 3.66 | 3.62 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Burnett, A.J. | 150359 | 22.7 | 4.76 | 4.88 | 4.98 | 4.55 | 0.5 | -0.8 |
| Nova, Ivan | 467100 | 14.7 | 7.36 | 4.22 | 5.43 | 4.95 | -3.2 | 1.2 |
| Hughes, Phil | 461833 | 10.3 | 13.94 | 8.81 | 4.19 | 4.12 | -11.2 | -5.4 |
| Total | 78.7 | 5.49 | 4.59 | -8.3 | -2.6 | |||
| Last, First | mlbam_id | ip | ytd_ra | ytd_fip | p_ra | p_fip | diff_ra | diff_fip |
| Robertson, David | 502085 | 6.0 | 0.00 | 1.87 | 3.95 | 3.70 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| Pendleton, Lance | 459983 | 3.0 | 0.00 | 1.87 | 5.25 | 4.94 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Rivera, Mariano | 121250 | 9.3 | 1.93 | 2.02 | 3.02 | 3.32 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Colon, Bartolo | 112526 | 11.3 | 4.76 | 2.85 | 5.56 | 4.96 | 1.0 | 2.7 |
| Ayala, Luis | 425646 | 5.0 | 3.60 | 6.20 | 5.39 | 4.60 | 1.0 | -0.9 |
| Chamberlain, Joba | 501955 | 10.0 | 4.50 | 2.40 | 4.41 | 3.88 | -0.1 | 1.6 |
| Garcia, Freddy | 150119 | 1.0 | 9.00 | 4.20 | 4.96 | 4.75 | -0.4 | 0.1 |
| Nova, Ivan | 467100 | 0.7 | 13.50 | 3.20 | 5.43 | 4.95 | -0.6 | 0.1 |
| Logan, Boone | 457429 | 3.0 | 9.00 | 6.53 | 4.68 | 4.41 | -1.4 | -0.7 |
| Soriano, Rafael | 400089 | 7.7 | 7.04 | 3.59 | 3.37 | 3.51 | -3.1 | -0.1 |
| Total | 22.3 | 10.48 | 7.90 | -5.7 | 1.1 | |||
| Team Total | 101.0 | 6.59 | 5.32 | -14.0 | -1.6 |
ytd_ra: year to date runs allowed per nine innings
ytd_fip: year to date fielding-independent pitching
p_ra: average projected ra
p_fip: average projected fip
diff_ra: difference in runs between projected and actual ra
diff_fip: difference in runs between projected and actual fip
Add about 7 inches and 65 pounds to Brett Gardner and you’ve got Phil Hughes. The thing that really scares me here is seeing that A.J. Burnett’s FIP is actually worse than his projected FIP. He’s looked better than that to me, although I guess last night’s game is evidence that he’s still a work in progress.
The pen has been a bit worse than expected, primarly thanks to Boone Logan and Rafael Soriano. I’d expect Soriano to be fine going forward, but I’m not so sure on Logan.
I figured Hughes had to be the pitcher who’s been underperforming by the most this year, but it turns out that’s not quite true.
| Last, First | mlbam_id | ip | ytd_ra | ytd_fip | p_ra | p_fip | diff_ra | diff_fip |
| Pelfrey, Mike | 460059 | 16.7 | 10.80 | 5.66 | 4.52 | 4.15 | -11.6 | -2.8 |
| Hughes, Phil | 461833 | 10.3 | 13.94 | 8.81 | 4.19 | 4.12 | -11.2 | -5.4 |
| Bedard, Erik | 407853 | 13.7 | 10.54 | 8.03 | 3.87 | 3.91 | -10.1 | -6.3 |
| Figueroa, Nelson | 150153 | 16.0 | 10.13 | 2.89 | 4.54 | 4.39 | -9.9 | 2.7 |
| Lackey, John | 407793 | 14.7 | 9.82 | 6.00 | 4.61 | 4.08 | -8.5 | -3.1 |
| Westbrook, Jake | 150414 | 15.3 | 9.39 | 6.85 | 4.47 | 4.36 | -8.4 | -4.3 |
| Hernandez, Felix | 433587 | 27.0 | 6.00 | 3.24 | 3.24 | 3.29 | -8.3 | 0.2 |
| Penny, Brad | 207267 | 21.3 | 8.44 | 5.78 | 4.97 | 4.46 | -8.2 | -3.1 |
Over at Baseball Think Factory there’ve been a few threads that were essentially arguments between Yankees fans and Mets fans about who you’d rather have, Hughes or Mike Pelfrey. Apparently, the correct answer is neither.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Yankees.com: Tex powers Garcia’s first Yankees win
NEW YORK—The Yankees got more than they could have asked from Freddy Garcia in his first start of the year, and Mark Teixeira homered and drove in three runs to post a 5-2 victory over the Rangers on a raw, rainy afternoon at Yankee Stadium.
Because of a rainout that interrupted their pitching plans, Garcia had not yet been asked to take the mound in his role as the fifth starter, and the Yankees couldn’t be exactly sure how sharp his command would be.
They needn’t have worried. Starting for the first time since March 29th, Garcia shrugged away the long layoff and kept the Rangers off balance with an array of offspeed stuff for six innings, permitting only two hits.
Garcia won’t pitch this well most of the time, but as long as he can command his stuff like he did today he should keep the Yankees in games more often than not. That’s really all I’m hoping for out of him.
And boy, spending $36M and pissing away a first round draft pick for a setup man who’s probably not even as good as your sixth or seventh inning guys sure looks smart, doesn’t it?
NY Post: Rangers score six double plays in 5-3 win over Yankees
Double plays helped get the Yankees into double trouble last night.
The Yankees banged into a franchise record six double plays, Rangers starter Mitch Harrison seemingly inducing two outs on one pitch every time the hosts had something bubbling.
If you ever wondered what a team comprised solely of Derek Jeter circa 2010-2011 would look like, that’s what it would look like.
In other more cheerful news:
From dead arm to dead rotation
The Red Sox own the atrocious record, but with Phil Hughes placed on the disabled list yesterday with a “dead arm” and another young starter not able to make it out of the fifth inning, the first-place Yankees are in deep trouble.
The rotation now includes Bartolo Colon, rookie Ivan Nova, who lost 5-3 to the Rangers last night at frigid Yankee Stadium, and Freddy Garcia, who goes today against Texas.
I’d be enjoying Boston losing more if the Yankees were taking better advantage of it.
Sunday, April 3, 2011
2011 Minor League Preview Part 1 (Positivity and Wishful Thinking Thread)
The Yankees’ Major League season is underway and the minor league season kicks off on April 7th. In order to streamline your minor league viewing experience I will be highlighting select players from the four full-season clubs and giving you an idea of what to look for. Players are listed alphabetically and grouped by minor league level. I have also listed their current position as well as age as of minor league Opening Day. No doubt, many/most of these names will be familiar to you.
Scranton Three-Year Weighted Park Multipliers:
| R | H | 2B | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .95 | .99 | .96 | .93 | .95 | 1.02 |
Andrew Brackman, SP, 25-Keep throwing strikes. Brackman may be the single most important minor leaguer for the 2011 season and so it is imperative that he continues to throw strikes. If/when The Rock, Bartolo-y and Millwood turn into pumpkins, Brackman will likely be the first prospect given a shot. While an early Spring Training groin injury killed any chances he had at making the team it was clear the Yankee brass felt it was important for him to get his feet wet (doesn’t hurt that he has a ML contract). As he makes the transition to AAA, Brackman will also have to focus on developing his command. While he has dramatically cut the walks, and that’s a good thing, he has become more hittable than you would like for a pitcher with his physical talent. 2011 will be all about striking that balance.
Key Stat(s): BB/9, H/9
Dan Brewer, OF, 23-Brewer does not have any plus tools, but has performed, thus far. As is often the case when a guy lacking physicality or dominant statistical performance comes along, Brewer has been tagged as a future 4th OF or fringe starter. This means he is going to have to continue doing what he has done thus far and that is prove himself in all facets of the game.
Key Stat(s): All
Colin Curtis, OF, 26-Curtis is another future 4th OF type, but with less ability on the bases, more pop and a better pedigree. Curtis had a good first full season at AAA last year, better than you would have thought given his prior AA performance and will look to repeat. With Chris Dickerson now in the system as well as Brewer and Laird at the AAA level, there will be a lot of competition for that first call-up if/when one of the Yankee OFs gets hurt.
Key Stat(s): All
Brandon Laird, CIF/OF, 23-The Yankees seem to like the idea of Laird as a future backup at all 4 corner positions and I would agree that this is a good use of his talents. The toughest position he would have to play, 3B, is also one that he has a lot of minor league experience at. Despite some iffy defensive scouting reports when I’ve seen Laird play the hot corner he has shown average range and a plus arm. He can be erratic at times, but as a guy who is only going to see action in spurts I don’t think it will be much of a concern. While Laird had a monster offensive performance in a very tough AA league he scuffled at AAA. Laird comes from the grip it and rip it school of hitting and the numbers (his .246/.268/.344 line turns into .211/.237/.246 when you remove his first 2 games) seem to indicate that once the book was out on him he was unable to adjust. In ’11 he will have to prove that last year’s AA offenseive performance was not a fluke. While I have faith the power is real, I am concerned about the approach.
Key Stat(s): BB, BB/K
DJ Mitchell, SP, 23-D.J. is in a tough spot. Because almost every pitcher in the system had a huge year last year guys who are either more talented or more ready now surround him. Normally, someone with his profile would be a prime candidate for some spot action this year, but I think he gets tacked on to a deal at some point. If he can keep the ball on the ground and the walks in check, he will prove useful out of the bullpen, wherever he ends up.
Key Stat(s): BB/9, GB%
Jesus Montero, C, 21-I didn’t see every inning of Montero’s (televised) Spring Training appearances but, apparently, he was really bad whenever I stopped watching. When I did watch, Montero didn’t stand out, which was a triumph considering scouting reports had lead me to believe he would make a mistake on every pitch. Joel Sherman aside, everyone in the world believes Montero will hit at the big league level and so all he needs to do is prove that his defense is “not terrible” enough so that the Yankees can use him to replace the corpse of Turtle.
Key Stat(s): PB, WP, CS%, BA/OBP/SLG
Hector Noesi, SP, 24-I think this is the year Noesi’s hype as a prospect, lukewarm as it may be, dies out. Dominican Scary Fly-Ball Guy has more velocity than the original Scary Fly-Ball Guy but the same love for balls in the air. This has worked out fine for him thus far but 2011 will mark the first time he does not play in a home park that hugely depresses home runs. I’m not optimistic about his odds of maintaining his success as a starter but he could pitch teh fifth.
Key Stat(s): HR/9, K/9
David Phelps, SP, 24-Phelps, a small righty with “stuff” questions, made it to AAA last year and saw his K rate tumble and HR rate increase. However, he also cut some walks and increased the K:BB ratio while keeping runs off the board at a solid rate. Any projection beyond back of the rotation or middle relief is tough for a guy with this sort of profile and he will return to AAA hoping to miss a few more bats and limit quality contact.
Key Stat(s): HR/9, K/9, H/9
Adam Warren, SP, 23-Because he’s a small right-hander with outstanding minor league performance I often think of Warren as the Yankees’ second shot at the Ian Kennedy thing. Warren has more fastball than Kennedy did though, but has yet to demonstrate a secondary pitch as effective as Kennedy’s change. While the fastball velocity is better, Warren, like Kennedy, will have to work on his command and keep the ball in the park. I like his chances of doing so and think he will be the first guy up for an extended look this year.
Key Stat(s): HR/9, K/9
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Looking Ahead To 2011 - Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia
There’s a very good chance that the Yankees’ hopes for contending will come down to what they get out of the fourth and fifth spots in their rotation, which are currently manned by Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia.
Ivan Nova’s been considered a decent pitching prospect for a few years now, although it’s primarily due to his stuff and not his minor league performance. In 2010 he had far and away the best year of his career in the minors, and 10 games(seven starts) at the major league level where he put up 42 innings of league average pitching.
It’s not just the Yankees who considered Nova a prospect, as he was taken by the San Diego Padres in the 2008 Rule 5 draft. Fortunately for the Yankees, the Padres determined they couldn’t carry him in the majors all year after a lousy spring and returned him prior to the start of the 2009 season.
Here are Nova’s projections for 2011.
| projecton | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR | BABIP | BB/9 | K/9 | HBP | GS | W | L |
| bill_james | 16 | 80 | 86 | 45 | 41 | 7 | 36 | 57 | 5.04 | 4.61 | 4.34 | 8 | 0.8 | .311 | 4.05 | 6.41 | 2 | 14 | 4 | 5 |
| cairo | 22 | 116 | 130 | 72 | 67 | 15 | 49 | 72 | 5.59 | 5.20 | 5.04 | 5 | 0.5 | .303 | 3.80 | 5.59 | 5 | 20 | 6 | 7 |
| marcel | 17 | 71 | 69 | 35 | 32 | 7 | 26 | 52 | 4.44 | 4.06 | 4.20 | 12 | 1.2 | .287 | 3.30 | 6.59 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 4 |
| oliver | 37 | 155 | 170 | 90 | 82 | 18 | 69 | 97 | 5.24 | 4.79 | 4.80 | 13 | 1.3 | .302 | 4.02 | 5.65 | 26 | 8 | 10 | |
| pecota | 20 | 119 | 136 | 75 | 69 | 15 | 53 | 66 | 5.68 | 5.23 | 5.19 | 4 | 0.4 | .303 | 4.01 | 5.00 | 5 | 20 | 6 | 8 |
| zips | 28 | 150 | 170 | 94 | 88 | 19 | 69 | 88 | 5.65 | 5.29 | 5.18 | 5 | 0.5 | .304 | 4.15 | 5.30 | 7 | 26 | 7 | 8 |
| average* | 25 | 122 | 135 | 73 | 68 | 15 | 53 | 75 | 5.40 | 4.99 | 4.97 | 8 | 0.8 | .301 | 3.92 | 5.53 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 7 |
| 2010 | 33 | 187 | 179 | 72 | 67 | 14 | 65 | 141 | 3.47 | 3.22 | 3.74 | 52 | 5.2 | .291 | 3.13 | 6.79 | 2 | 30 | 13 | 5 |
RA/ERA: Runs/Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher(park and role-adjusted, using RA)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
*average does not include bill_james or fans
Marcel ignores MLEs, which is why it appears so much more favorable. Since Nova’s prospectdom(is that a word?) was based more on his tools and less on his performance, his projections aren’t particularly great. The biggest issue with Nova is how his BB rate and K rate translate. The average projection sees him walking about 3.9 batters per nine and striking out just 5.5, and that’s not the recipe for big league success.
Of course, Nova has youth on his side, and he throws hard, and we have circumstantial evidence to think he’s not the same pitcher he was prior to this year. If the new cutter is something that will help him improve those walk rates and K rates, there’s no reason to think he can’t outpitch those projections.
Here are Nova’s percentile forecasts.
| cairo% | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 27 | 129 | 121 | 65 | 60 | 11 | 43 | 82 | 4.51 | 4.18 | 4.13 | 21 | 2.1 |
| 65% | 25 | 123 | 126 | 68 | 64 | 13 | 46 | 77 | 5.02 | 4.66 | 4.56 | 13 | 1.3 |
| Baseline | 22 | 116 | 130 | 72 | 67 | 15 | 49 | 72 | 5.59 | 5.20 | 5.04 | 5 | 0.5 |
| 35% | 18 | 100 | 122 | 69 | 64 | 15 | 47 | 61 | 6.20 | 5.78 | 5.56 | -3 | -0.3 |
| 20% | 14 | 84 | 113 | 64 | 60 | 15 | 45 | 51 | 6.88 | 6.43 | 6.13 | -9 | -0.9 |
The innings are a little low across the board, so multiply those estimates by a bit to get them closer to what we may see. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Nova giving the Yankees 160 innings of that 80% projection, but I’d more realistically hope that they can get 150 innings of that 65% forecast. That makes him worth about 1.6 wins above a replacement level pitcher, which is great for your #4 starter.
Even though I expect some growing pains, I am looking forward to watching Nova pitch this year, especially if what we saw in the spring was evidence of what he may do this year. I’ll take six no-hit innings every game.
Moving on to the less exciting part of the 4th/5th spot, here’s how Freddy Garcia projects in 2011.
| projecton | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR | BABIP |
| bill_james | 27 | 148 | 155 | 73 | 69 | 21 | 42 | 99 | 4.43 | 4.20 | 4.64 | 17 | 1.7 | .289 |
| cairo | 31 | 31 | 32 | 17 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 4.94 | 4.65 | 4.62 | 2 | 0.2 | .292 |
| marcel | 25 | 144 | 152 | 76 | 72 | 18 | 44 | 91 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.54 | 12 | 1.2 | .291 |
| oliver | 18 | 101 | 111 | 63 | 60 | 15 | 29 | 62 | 5.64 | 5.35 | 4.76 | -2 | -0.2 | .294 |
| pecota | 20 | 109 | 119 | 63 | 58 | 17 | 33 | 68 | 5.23 | 4.81 | 4.97 | 3 | 0.3 | .291 |
| zips | 15 | 82 | 90 | 47 | 44 | 12 | 23 | 51 | 5.16 | 4.83 | 4.77 | 3 | 0.3 | .295 |
| average* | 22 | 93 | 101 | 53 | 50 | 13 | 28 | 59 | 5.14 | 4.82 | 4.75 | 4 | 0.4 | .292 |
| 2010 | 28 | 157 | 171 | 85 | 81 | 23 | 45 | 89 | 4.87 | 4.64 | 4.89 | 11 | 1.1 | .288 |
Garcia’s innings project low because he missed a lot of time from 2007-2009.
Here’s how Garcia’s percentile forecasts look if we use 155 IP for the baseline.
| cairo% | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 33 | 169 | 152 | 78 | 73 | 16 | 49 | 122 | 4.16 | 3.90 | 3.94 | 25 | 2.5 |
| 65% | 30 | 162 | 156 | 82 | 77 | 18 | 52 | 116 | 4.53 | 4.26 | 4.27 | 17 | 1.7 |
| Baseline | 25 | 155 | 160 | 85 | 80 | 20 | 55 | 110 | 4.94 | 4.65 | 4.62 | 10 | 1.0 |
| 35% | 20 | 132 | 152 | 82 | 77 | 21 | 54 | 93 | 5.60 | 5.28 | 5.19 | -2 | -0.2 |
| 20% | 15 | 111 | 142 | 78 | 74 | 21 | 52 | 77 | 6.34 | 5.99 | 5.84 | -10 | -1.0 |
I think the baseline is about the best we can realistically hope for. The good news is if he is pitching worse than that, he’ll probably get replaced by someone, be it Bartolo Colon, Kevin Millwood, Andrew Brackman, Hector Noesi, or someone else.
The Yankees don’t need greatness out of 4/5, although if A.J. Burnett implodes they may need them to be better than adequate. I don’t want to get too hyped on spring training results, but Nova really did look fantastic and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him as the Yankees’ third-best starter by year end. As for Garcia, I’ll just hope he’s serviceable enough to keep the Yankees in most games. FWIW, he had 19 quality starts (games of 6 IP, 3 R or fewer allowed) last year. You know who else had 19 quality starts? “Rapid” Cliff Lee.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Lohud: Jennings: Pitching staff (almost) set
Joe Girardi announced this morning that Ivan Nova will be the Yankees No. 4 starter and Freddy Garcia will be the No. 5.
Bartolo Colon will be the long man.
The staff would be set, but Pedro Feliciano might open on the disabled list. In fact, that sounds likely.
I wonder if Feliciano on the DL means Romulo Sanchez gets to start the year in the pen?
Friday, March 25, 2011
LA Times: Yankees trade pitcher Mitre for outfielder [Chris] Dickerson
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The New York Yankees have traded pitcher Sergio Mitre to the Milwaukee Brewers for outfielder Chris Dickerson, the Yankees said Thursday.
The Yankees have also signed pitcher Kevin Millwood to a minor league contract, adding the veteran right-hander to the mix of candidates for the back end of their rotation, Major League Baseball’s website (www.mlb.com) reported.
Getting a warm body for Mitre is a good deal, since right now it looks like the best way for the Yankees to start the season is with some combination of Ivan Nova, Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia as the fourth and fifth starters, with the loser going to the pen. I think you’ll see Nova as the #4 and Colon as the #5, with Garcia as the long man waiting in the wings as the potential #6 starter.
Here is how CAIRO projects Dickerson as a Yankee.
| projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAA | BRAR | BABIP |
| bill_james | 294 | 258 | 39 | 70 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 16 | 5 | 36 | .271 | .361 | .422 | .348 | 40 | 89 | 5 | 11 | .360 |
| fans | ###### | |||||||||||||||||||
| cairo | 223 | 194 | 26 | 50 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 23 | .259 | .337 | .392 | .323 | 26 | 77 | 0 | 5 | .329 |
| marcel | 283 | 248 | 32 | 64 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 9 | 2 | 29 | .258 | .336 | .391 | .323 | 34 | 77 | 0 | 6 | .326 |
| oliver | 382 | 328 | 47 | 80 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 12 | 5 | 44 | .244 | .330 | .375 | .314 | 42 | 72 | -3 | 5 | .340 |
| pecota | 450 | 386 | 53 | 96 | 18 | 3 | 10 | 45 | 20 | 6 | 54 | .249 | .340 | .389 | .325 | 54 | 78 | 1 | 10 | .326 |
| zips | 326 | 282 | 40 | 67 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 16 | 6 | 36 | .238 | .322 | .383 | .312 | 37 | 74 | -2 | 5 | .321 |
| average* | 333 | 288 | 40 | 71 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 37 | .248 | .333 | .385 | .319 | 39 | 76 | -1 | 6 | .329 |
| 2010 | 161 | 140 | 23 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 15 | .279 | .335 | .421 | .328 | 21 | 87 | 2 | 6 | .375 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average (does not include SB/CS)
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAA: BR above an average player in projected playing time (adjusted for park, but not for position)
BRAR: BR above a replacement level player (adjusted for park and position)
2010: Un-adjusted 2010 performance *average does not include bill_james or fans
That 2010 line includes his time in AAA, he’s not really that good. He’s a left-handed hitter with good speed who appears to be a good defensive player as well. In a very small sample size he’s shown a plus glove in CF.
| Player | Dickerson, Chris | |||||||
| Pos | CF | |||||||
| year | G | Inn | DRS | zRS | uRS | tRS | avg | rARM |
| 2006 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2007 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2008 | 7 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2009 | 27 | 170 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| 2010 | 20 | 133 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| avg | 11 | 70 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| w_avg | 15 | 99 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
He’s 28, which means he’s probably not going to get much better than he is right now, but he still has an option year remaining so he’s not a bad guy to have stashed at AAA in case of emergency.
So thumbs up from me.
Saturday, March 19, 2011
NJ.com: Carig: Yankees to keep A.J. Burnett in No. 2 rotation spot
The headline isn’t really news IMO. Ordinal numbering of the rotation isn’t that big of a deal. I found this more interesting.
General manager Brian Cashman told reporters he expects decisions on the team’s rotation to come “sooner than later.”
Girardi has maintained that he will take as much time as needed to make evaluations of the four candidates, Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre.
“I’m not going to make a decision until we decide to make a decision,” he said.
But it’s clear that time is running short. Garcia, who allowed five runs in six innings during a 5-5 tie against the Blue Jays today, may get just one more start before the schedule forces the Yankees to decide.
“I feel good but I don’t want to give up five runs,” said Garcia, whose right shoulder has held up.
Garcia cruised through the first three innings in order, allowed three runs in a rough fourth inning, and appeared to settle in before running into trouble in the six.
Eduardo Nunez, playing left field to get him reps in case he must play there in an emergency, mishandled a ball that led to a Yunel Escobar double.
“That’s going to happen,” Girardi said. “If (Brett Gardner is) out there, maybe that’s three outs and he only gives up three runs, and we’re not asking these questions,” Girardi said.
After retiring the next two batters, Garcia allowed a two-run homer to David Cooper. Garcia struck out six.
Garcia, 34, has an opt-out clause in his contract for later in the month. In case he doesn’t make the rotation, he could seek an opportunity elsewhere. He ruled out pitching in the minors but left the door open to potentially pitch in long relief for the Yankees.
At this point, it’s tough to deny Ivan Nova a spot in the rotation on merit, so if Garcia and/or Colon are willing to pitch out of the bullpen that allows the Yankees a bit more flexibility. I’d like to see them keep both of them, but not at the expense of constructing a less than optimum roster.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
NY Post: Sherman: Garcia, Colon, Mitre
There are several ways the Yankees can go in the Nos. 4-5 battle. There are scouts saying they are convinced the Yankees are going to release Sergio Mitre. If so, Garcia, Colon and Ivan Nova will make up the Nos. 4-5 starters and the long reliever on the staff.
...
The way the Yankees can keep all of their assets in this derby is to have Colon and Garcia form the Nos. 4-5 in the rotation, make Mitre the long man and send Nova to Triple-A to await a call when the inevitable breakdowns occur.But there are certainly Yankees officials who want to give a homegrown product such as Nova an opportunity rather than go with the pipe dream that Colon and Garcia are both going to stay healthy and pitch well.
Because Brian Cashman has mentioned that he’s talked to Bartolo Colon’s agent about whether he’d be willing to pitch out of the bullpen, I get the sense that Sherman’s right about their willingness to release Mitre in order to keep Garcia and Colon. This would give Nova a fair chance at starting the season in the major league rotation. If Nova or Garcia struggle or get hurt, Colon could theoretically be the first line of defense, with the minor leaguers who are pitching well waiting in the wings. Of course, that’s contingent on Colon willing to go to the pen, something that he may not want to do if he continues to throw well.
With apologies to rilkefan, I would be on board with this course of action (releasing Mitre). I just don’t think he’d be missed.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
NDYN: New York Yankees feel good about pitching staff thus far
“Everybody is throwing well,” general manager Brian Cashman said. “That’s the way you want it to be. Hope it continues. We’ve had good pitching down here so far, thankfully.”
Garcia has thrown five scoreless innings in two outings, while Colon has given up three runs in nine innings after his four-inning, two-run performance against the Pirates Wednesday night. Colon, who allowed both runs in the second inning of the Bombers’ 4-2 win, gave up four hits, striking out seven without issuing a walk.
“He was pretty good,” Joe Girardi said. “Second inning, he made some mistakes with his fastball, but for the most part, he pitched ahead. He threw some good breaking balls and some good changeups.”
Neither Garcia nor Colon will be confused with Lee any time soon, but the Yankees are hopeful that their performances so far are an indication of things to come.
Neither Garcia nor Colon will be confused with whom?
I think 2011 should be the year of Cliff Who? Or Cliff Whom if the context requires it.
Maybe it’s a bit foolish, but I’m optimistic on both Garcia and Colon right now. That’s based less on the results and more on how they’ve looked/thrown.
Mind you, I’m not optimistic that the Yankees got two aces for the price of two fifth starters. That’s a market inefficiency that only one team has been able to exploit. But I am optimistic that they got two potential 4th/5th starters who can keep what’s probably still the best offense in baseball in games long enough to win at least half the time.
Friday, March 4, 2011
NJ.com: Carig: Yankees pitchers Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia are rising above the rest
Garcia, making his spring debut, worked quickly while pitching two scoreless innings. Nova followed up on his impressive debut, firing three scoreless frames, giving him five shutout innings in Grapefruit League action.
“Freddy was good,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “His velocity was good today, too.”
Garcia, who has battled shoulder issues since surgery in 2007, was clocked at 89 mph on his fastball. Slow by big league standards, it’s an acceptable range for Garcia, who has relied on changing speeds to survive.
I think that Nova and Garcia were the favorites to take the last two spots in the rotation heading into spring training, and so far nothing seems to have changed with that.
I have to admit I’m not sold on Nova, primarily because of his minor league performance prior to 2010. His 2010 was quite good though, and he may be better than I think.
Garcia isn’t going to be great, but he doesn’t have to be. He just has to be ok.
Friday, February 18, 2011
NY Post: Yankees eye Millwood; Nova and Garcia the faves for now
While the Yankees believe they can fill the gaping holes in the back of the rotation from within, they are contemplating signing free-agent right-hander Kevin Millwood.
An industry source described the Yankees’ interest in the 36-year-old Millwood as “strong” yesterday.
What remains to be seen is what type of contract and money the Yankees and Millwood may agree on. Veteran right-handers Freddy Garcia (one year at $1.5 million, plus $3.6 million in performance bonuses) and Bartolo Colon (one year at $900,000) are in camp on minor league deals. Millwood could be looking for a major league contract.
I still like the idea of adding Millwood, depending on the terms. If it can be done without a major league contract it’s a no-brainer, but I wouldn’t necessarily be upset about an MLB contract provided it was heavy on incentives and low on guaranteed money.
It’s not exactly the type of signing that is going to excite anyone, but when your rotation consists of at least three question marks, adding another starter who can probably be close to league average makes sense. The battle for the wild card is going to be tight, and every little bit may help.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
NY Times: Heftier Chamberlain Arrives With Thud at Yankees Camp
Asked Wednesday morning for his impression of Chamberlain, General Manager Brian Cashman said: “He’s heavier. Let’s just leave it at that.”
Told that Chamberlain has said he packed on muscle, Cashman said: “He’s obviously heavier. That’s as much as I’ll say.”
Asked if he expected Chamberlain to lose weight by opening day, Cashman only repeated, “He’s heavier.”
Exactly how much heavier was unclear, considering Cashman, when asked, would not say, and neither would Chamberlain, who tired quickly of the questioning. Saying he felt “great,” “awesome” and “stronger physically,” Chamberlain suggested his weight was not a fair indication of his physical condition.
Controversy!
Heft in and of itself isn’t necessarily bad,. Since muscle is denser than fat, you can be heavier but in better shape. Of course I have no idea if that’s what’s going on with Chamberlain.
I wonder if Cashman will have similar feelings with Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia.
Monday, January 31, 2011
TGS: Source: Yanks, Freddy Garcia agree
The New York Yankees have reached an agreement on a minor league contract with pitcher Freddy Garcia, a baseball source told ESPN.com.
Garcia will receive a $1.5 million base salary, if he makes the big-league club. He can also earn $3.6 million in possible incentives, topping out at 30 starts, according to a source.
Works for me. If he’s not healthy or throwing well in spring training, he probably doesn’t make the club.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Meridiano: FREDDY GARCIA: “UN EQUIPO COMO NUEVA YORK SERÍA IDEAL”
Aunque está desempleado, dice sentirse sano y dispuesto a seguir demostrando que puede ser un lanzador regular nuevamente en las Grandes Ligas.
El derecho Freddy García actualmente es agente libre y no pierde las esperanzas de conseguir un contrato. “Me siento muy bien, el brazo creo que está mejor que nunca. Yo quiero firmar con un equipo donde pueda sentirme cómodo, al igual que mi familia” destacó el serpentinero en la embajada de los Estados Unidos luego de realizar los respectivos trámites consulares de visado.
Distintas organizaciones han mostrado cierto interés en el mirandino de 35 años de edad. Los Tigres de Detroit, Orioles de Baltimore, Mets de Nueva York y los Yankees de Nueva York han estado coqueteando con el criollo, aunque él ya tiene su preferencia. “Mi preferencia es estar con los Yankees de Nueva York y no es descabellado que tenga eso en mente porque he demostrado que puedo serle útil”.
“Un equipo como el de Nueva York sería ideal para mi edad, el status de mi carrera es estar en una división exitosa, mediática, exigente, sin duda que sería de inspiración”.
Si los Yankees se niegan firmemente a considerar Joba en la rotación, supongo que tiene sentido para cargar sobre otras opciones, aunque la mayoría de ellos no inspiran mucho entusiasmo.
Spanish to English translation
While unemployed, says he feels healthy and ready to continue demonstrating that it can be a regular pitcher in the majors again.
The right Freddy Garcia is currently a free agent and is still hopeful of getting a contract. “I feel great, I think his arm is better than ever. I want to sign with a team where you can feel comfortable, like my family, “said the pitcher on the U.S. embassy after performing the respective consular visa formalities.
Different organizations have shown interest in Mirandino 35 years of age. Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles, New York Mets and New York Yankees have been flirting with Creole, though he already has his preference. “My preference is to stay with the New York Yankees and is not unreasonable to keep that in mind because I’ve proved I can be helpful. “
“A team like New York would be ideal for my age, the status of my career to be in a successful division, media, demanding, no doubt it would be of inspiration. “
If the Yankees steadfastly refuse to consider Joba in the rotation, I guess it makes sense to load up on other options, even if the majority of them fail to inspire much enthusiasm.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Yankees.com: Jeter carries Yanks to win with big night
Stuck in a tie game in the seventh, Jeter lined a go-ahead two-run triple past a diving Jayson Nix in right field. Jeter also tied the game in the fifth inning, sending a Freddy Garcia curveball over the wall in left.
Though starter Andy Pettitte did not pitch poorly, keeping the White Sox silent throughout the middle innings, two soft singles hurt him when Paul Konerko drove in both runners with a three-run homer in the first. Pettitte allowed four runs in total over six innings, striking out three and walking two.
With a Javy Vazquez start looming, a win tonight was huge. The Rays lost to the Royals putting the Yankees 1.5 games back of first. Not a bad way to close out April.
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