The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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NJ.com: Yankees’ CC Sabathia: I could still dominate
(42 Comments - 10/25/2014 1:22:51 am)

TGS: Hunter Strickland’s explosive October
(16 Comments - 10/23/2014 10:32:24 pm)

MLB Trade Rumors: Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees
(37 Comments - 10/23/2014 12:27:33 pm)

Newsday: Gary Denbo expected to replace Mark Newman in Yankees’ front office
(43 Comments - 10/22/2014 11:12:13 am)

NY Post: With Chili Davis off market, Yankees turn to Dave Magadan
(27 Comments - 10/21/2014 4:14:39 am)

TGS NY: Can McCann help lead the Bombers back?
(42 Comments - 10/19/2014 6:53:53 pm)

NYDN: Dave Magadan, Chili Davis are early frontrunners for Yankees hitting coach job
(34 Comments - 10/17/2014 9:05:10 am)

TGS NY: Eleven young Yankees on the rise in 2015
(76 Comments - 10/16/2014 10:13:29 am)

Newsday: Sources: Yankees considering Omar Minaya for high-ranking position in front office
(75 Comments - 10/15/2014 9:29:03 am)

NY Post: Yankees make to-do list: Third base, shortstop, rotation, closer
(63 Comments - 10/15/2014 1:12:44 am)



Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Wednesday, November 20, 2013

CAIRO 2014 v0.2’s Extremely Early and Completely Useless 2013 Projected MLB Standings

I figured I had a long offseason ahead of me if I was going to do everything in my power to make the Yankees look better than they are. The thing that needed to be done first was put the Yankees in the context of the rest of MLB.  So I’ve been working on building my CAIRO season simulation disk and gave it a trial run last night.  This was current through rosters as of yesterday morning.

As the title says, this is extremely early and completely useless so think of it more as a goof than anything too serious.  So using CAIRO v0.2 which I’ll probably post tomorrow and the depth charts from MLB Depth Charts and Rotochamp as a rough gauge of playing time, here’s how the 2014 MLB season looks as of November 20.

Date 11/20/2013
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 92 70 808 728 53.4% 10.7% 9.8% 73.9%
Rays 87 75 664 587 21.3% 11.6% 11.7% 44.5%
Blue Jays 86 76 816 761 14.9% 10.2% 11.7% 36.8%
Orioles 84 78 750 711 10.4% 6.3% 8.7% 25.4%
Yankees 71 91 674 801 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Tigers 91 71 773 661 71.1% 4.9% 4.5% 80.6%
Indians 85 77 725 670 21.6% 10.1% 10.0% 41.7%
Royals 79 83 703 758 6.1% 2.0% 4.1% 12.1%
Twins 74 88 707 774 1.2% 0.2% 0.8% 2.2%
White Sox 70 92 711 804 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 91 71 760 641 61.4% 12.9% 9.0% 83.3%
Athletics 86 76 710 641 24.6% 17.6% 16.4% 58.6%
Angels 84 78 664 643 13.8% 12.8% 12.4% 39.0%
Mariners 72 90 617 684 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 1.4%
Astros 54 108 660 970 0.0% - - -
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Nationals 90 72 697 608 52.9% 19.3% 10.1% 82.3%
Braves 90 72 645 589 45.1% 23.5% 10.5% 79.1%
Phillies 77 85 634 676 1.4% 1.6% 3.8% 6.9%
Marlins 73 89 574 641 0.5% 0.9% 1.7% 3.2%
Mets 68 94 589 682 0.1% - 0.1% 0.2%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Reds 87 75 676 620 34.6% 9.8% 9.3% 53.7%
Pirates 87 75 593 551 36.3% 8.7% 10.3% 55.2%
Cardinals 85 77 621 574 27.1% 9.0% 10.5% 46.5%
Brewers 75 87 706 763 1.3% 0.8% 1.5% 3.6%
Cubs 73 89 625 680 0.9% 0.3% 1.0% 2.1%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Dodgers 88 74 640 584 42.3% 7.0% 10.4% 59.6%
Giants 85 77 607 574 20.0% 6.5% 10.5% 37.1%
Diamondbacks 84 78 618 588 20.0% 6.3% 9.9% 36.2%
Rockies 81 81 852 861 9.9% 3.2% 6.4% 19.6%
Padres 80 82 602 596 7.8% 3.0% 4.1% 14.9%

W: Projected final 2014 wins
L: Projected final 2014 losses
RS: Projected final 2014 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2014 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation

Let me reiterate, these are extremely early and completely useless.  There are literally hundreds of free agents still out there to be signed, and trades to be made, and players to be injured.  There’s also the traditional error bars that projections have, which means you should probably look at this with a 10 game swing on either side of a team’s average projected win total, particularly right now with so much roster churn to come.

But if you are a Yankee fan, like I used to be, this is pretty disheartening.  It’s not surprising, and if you put the lineup and pitching staff together based on how they project in 2014 you will see they are about as far from championship caliber as any team in the American League.  Maybe moreso considering the relative strength of their division. 

No, the Astros are not an AL team, even if they use a DH.

Don’t worry though, the Yankees will sign Carlos Beltran and he’ll make them a 95 win team.

--Posted at 8:09 am by SG / 61 Comments | - (0)




Monday, August 26, 2013

NY Times: Yankees Find a Way to Avoid a Sweep

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — At age 37 with cranky knees, Alfonso Soriano is not nearly as swift as he once was. In an earlier life with the Yankees in his middle 20s, Soriano was able to rely on sheer speed and agility as he twice recorded seasons with 40 stolen bases.

Now, stolen bases come more from his mind and the knowledge he has accrued in 15 years in the major leagues, and few were as critical as the one he swiped in the 11th inning Sunday that led directly to a vital 3-2 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays.

Summoning every bit of information about the craft of base stealing that he had gleaned from his previous 365 attempts — and with his manager’s blessing — Soriano set out on an 85-foot sprint that changed the course of the game, and perhaps the Yankees’ playoff hopes.

The Yankees really needed to win two of the three games in Tampa Bay over this weekend, but alas they couldn’t do it.  Saturday’s game was the killer, as CC Sabathia looked like vintage CC for just about the whole game except for a four batter stretch that cost the Yankees their 2-0 lead and the game.  CC was pretty much sitting 94-95 all game, something he hasn’t done all year.  Unfortunately, even if he pitches well going forward it’s probably too little and too late.

The big problem the Yankees face now is that they need a lot of help from a lot of crappy teams.  They’re fighting against Cleveland and Oakland teams that have easier schedules going forward, even if the Yankees were able to take care of their own business against Baltimore, Boston and Tampa Bay.  Here are my estimated projected strengths of schedule for each team over the rest of the season, accounting for home field advantage.

Team Opponent W%
Indians .486
Athletics .490
Rangers .492
Yankees .500
Rays .509
Red Sox .512
Orioles .522

And here’s how many wins every team ahead of the Yankees project to end the season with.

TM W
Tigers 98
Red Sox 94
Rangers 93
Rays 93
Athletics 90
Indians 88
Orioles 86
Yankees 85

Let’s put that in the perspective of the expected W-L records over the rest of the season.

Team W L
Yankees 16 16
Rays 19 15
Rangers 18 14
Athletics 18 15
Red Sox 17 13
Indians 17 15
Orioles 16 17

Let’s forget about Boston, Tampa Bay and Texas for now.  I can’t see the Yankees making up the seven or eight games in projected record over the rest of the season to catch any of them.  Yeah, they play Boston seven more times, all at home, but even if they win five of those seven games they still have to make up another five games.  They play the Rays just three more times, so even if they sweep that series they would have to make up another four games.

The Yankees play the Orioles seven more times (three at home, four on the road so they can pass them by beating them.

Which means it’s basically down to winning the games they can win and then watching what Oakland and Cleveland do in these remaining games.

Game #
Angels@Athletics 3
Astros@Athletics 4
Athletics@Angels 3
Athletics@Mariners 3
Athletics@Rangers 3
Athletics@Tigers 4
Athletics@Twins 3
Rangers@Athletics 3
Rays@Athletics 3
Twins@Athletics 4
Game #
Astros@Indians 4
Indians@Braves 3
Indians@Royals 3
Indians@Tigers 3
Indians@Twins 4
Indians@White Sox 4
Mets@Indians 3
Orioles@Indians 3
Royals@Indians 3
White Sox@Indians 2

I’d feel better about the Yankees’ chances if Oakland didn’t have so many games left against the Angels, Astros, Mariners and Twins and Cleveland didn’t have so many games left against the Astros, Twins, White Sox and Mets.

I fear the Yankees have run out of time.  They are probably one of the six best teams in the AL right now, but they haven’t been for too much of the season to make up for it.

--Posted at 8:03 am by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, August 15, 2013

Best 43 Games Stretches by Every 2013 MLB Team

Tm StartDate EndDate W-L WPCT season WPCT% RS RA
LAD 6/22 8/9 35-8 .814 .583 209 130
PIT 5/14 6/30 30-13 .698 .597 166 131
STL 4/9 5/27 30-13 .698 .571 198 133
TBR 6/16 8/4 30-13 .698 .568 175 124
ATL 6/26 8/14 29-14 .674 .612 221 146
CIN 4/15 5/31 29-14 .674 .567 197 136
DET 6/20 8/8 29-14 .674 .588 236 161
NYY 4/7 5/25 29-14 .674 .521 191 146
OAK 5/15 7/2 29-14 .674 .563 199 147
TEX 4/2 5/19 29-14 .674 .579 210 150
CLE 6/14 8/1 28-15 .651 .537 211 163
TOR 5/5 6/23 28-15 .651 .458 242 181
BOS 4/13 5/27 27-16 .628 .590 215 184
KCR 6/26 8/13 27-16 .628 .525 186 162
CHC 4/5 5/23 16-27 .372 .433 173 180
CHW 6/5 7/25 16-27 .372 .387 184 209
COL 6/13 7/31 16-27 .372 .467 152 202
HOU 4/17 6/2 16-27 .372 .328 171 241
LAA 4/3 5/19 16-27 .372 .445 186 226
MIL 4/19 6/4 16-27 .372 .433 174 209
NYM 4/19 6/8 16-27 .372 .458 143 196
SDP 6/18 8/6 16-27 .372 .450 152 193
SFG 5/16 7/2 16-27 .372 .437 151 189
MIA 5/6 6/23 15-28 .349 .387 137 188

I figured this would give some perspective on just how hard it’s going to be for the Yankees to win 30+ of their 43 remaining games. 

 

--Posted at 8:48 am by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)




Monday, July 22, 2013

2013 MLB Postseason Odds Through Games of July 21

Date 7/22/2013
Iterations 1,000,000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 94 68 825 730 51.6% 23.9% 10.6% 86.1%
Rays 92 70 743 651 34.7% 29.4% 16.5% 80.7%
Orioles 88 74 763 740 11.0% 16.1% 20.9% 47.9%
Yankees 83 79 694 684 2.3% 4.4% 8.9% 15.5%
Blue Jays 77 85 758 748 0.0% 0.8% 1.1% 1.9%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Tigers 91 71 806 682 75.1% 2.2% 4.9% 82.2%
Indians 86 76 758 730 21.6% 4.7% 8.8% 35.2%
Royals 78 84 668 679 2.7% 0.5% 1.7% 4.8%
Twins 70 92 672 778 0.1% - 0.2% 0.3%
White Sox 69 93 658 734 0.1% - 0.1% 0.2%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Athletics 93 69 725 641 74.0% 5.2% 6.6% 85.8%
Rangers 88 74 733 690 23.7% 11.2% 16.6% 51.5%
Angels 80 82 747 709 1.7% 1.2% 2.5% 5.4%
Mariners 74 88 660 727 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7%
Astros 55 107 625 868 0.0% - - -
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Braves 93 69 694 600 90.0% 0.6% 2.7% 93.2%
Nationals 81 81 635 622 5.9% 1.6% 8.3% 15.8%
Phillies 78 84 647 698 3.2% 0.5% 3.2% 6.8%
Mets 75 87 666 715 0.6% 0.4% 1.0% 1.9%
Marlins 61 101 559 701 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Cardinals 98 64 757 614 68.0% 21.5% 9.7% 99.1%
Reds 91 71 718 622 15.3% 38.6% 31.4% 85.4%
Pirates 91 71 638 603 16.2% 34.8% 32.7% 83.7%
Cubs 73 89 659 695 0.1% - 1.3% 1.4%
Brewers 69 93 660 728 0.0% - 0.2% 0.2%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Diamondbacks 84 78 688 672 41.5% 1.0% 3.0% 45.6%
Dodgers 83 79 647 631 37.9% 0.5% 3.5% 41.8%
Rockies 78 84 742 765 12.6% 0.2% 1.6% 14.3%
Giants 77 85 652 670 6.9% - 0.9% 7.8%
Padres 71 91 642 714 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 1.0%

W: Projected final 2013 wins
L: Projected final 2013 losses
RS: Projected final 2013 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2013 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

At least the Yankees have a good chance of not finishing last.

Should they sell?  Probably.  Will they sell?  Probably not.

--Posted at 9:27 am by SG / 59 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, March 27, 2013

The 2013 MLB Projection Blowout

With Opening Day rapidly approaching, it’s time for my 2013 MLB projected standings blowout.  The idea behind this series of posts is to try and project how the 2013 MLB season might look given what we think we may know right now.  I’ve been doing a version of this since 2005, and you can see the results by looking at the following links.

2005
2006
2007
2008 Pt 1
2008 Pt 2
2009 AL
2009 NL
2010 AL
2010 NL
2011 AL
2011 NL
2012

A quick look at the previous seasons shows that the results are hit and miss.  Projections don’t pretend to be omnisicent, so they can only tell us so much about how things play out.  Hence the following disclaimers.

1) Projection systems are inherently limited in their accuracy, particularly for pitchers. We can get a rough idea of how most players will perform by looking at their past histories and how similar players have performed, and factoring in aging and regression, but abilities/talent can change in ways that can’t be forecasted.

2) Playing time distribution in these simulations will not match actual 2013 playing time. I used the rosters and depth charts available at MLB Depth Charts plus whatever I’ve read over the offseason as my guide to set these up as realistically as possible, but it’s a possible source of error. Rosters were set up to have 35-40 or so active players per team, and to get a reasonable amount of playing time from the bench and extra pitchers, to more closely model reality. Basically, no players are set to play more than 90% of the time, starting catchers are restricted to at most about 75% of the games, and I’ve made sure teams get a non-trivial amount of starts from their 6-8 starters. The healthier a team is in 2013, the more likely they will be to exceed these projections, and vice versa.

3) We cannot predict injuries and/or roster changes. These simulations do try to adjust projected playing time based on past health issues, so someone like Erik Bedard is not expected to make 30 starts. I’ve also included random injuries which may lead to some of the outlying results you see, but there’s no way to account for all the fluctuations that will happen with rosters this season.

4) These are NOT my predictions. These are projections based on running a computer simulation hundreds of thousands of times with projection data that is inherently limited. If your favorite team doesn’t project well, don’t blame me, blame the computers and spreadsheets that projected them. I guess you can blame me for the CAIRO results if you want, otherwise you can take heart in the 2006 Tigers projecting to win 80, the 2010 Giants projecting to go 81-81 or the 2012 Orioles projecting to win 70 games.  These are not meant to tell you how the season is going to play out.  I prefer to think of them more as a starting point for discussion, with a range of something like 10 wins in either direction based on how things actually end up playing out.  You can look at them and argue about why you think some teams will be better or worse.

5) Since this is all automated, I don’t break ties. I simply award all ties a share of either the division title or wild cards when it happens which is why you may see some funny decimal places in the standings that follow.

6) These are the averages of hundreds of thousands of simulated seasons, so the results will tend to regress towards the mean. The final standings will not look like this, because they only play the season once.  If the first place team in a division projects to win 85 games, it doesn’t mean 85 wins will win the division, but I’ll get into that into more detail further down in this post.

7) Even if you knew exactly what every player would do, and exactly how much they’d play, you would not get the standings right.  A few one run games or a disparate performance in more crucial situations can cause any team to over/under achieve what their stats say they should have done.  So if that’s true, you have to figure that since we have no idea what any individual player do or how much they’ll play, the margin of error on these is massive.

There’s too much stuff to fit it all into one post, so I’ve created a separate post for each projection system.  I will use this post to show the results of the aggregate/average of all the projections. You can follow the links below to look at the individual projection systems’ results.

This year, I’m using five different projection systems.  You can click on each of the links below to get some more information about each system and to see how their specific projected standings look.

CAIRO
Marcel
Oliver
Steamer
ZiPS

I should note that the Marcel projections used here were generated using Python code provided by Jeff Sackmann and are not the “official” projections, although they should be almost identical.  I’ll also mention that ZiPS will have its own projected standings so these should not be considered the official version.  Playing time distribution, run environments and park factors may cause some divergence between what ZiPS forecasts and what mine say.  When in doubt, go with the official version.

With all the disclaimers out of the way, on to the projected standings.  These are the combined results for all five projection systems.  The standings are rounded to the nearest win so if the total W-L doesn’t add up to 2430-2430 that’s why.

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/-
Blue Jays 89 73 795 728 29.1% 9.9% 9.6% 48.5% 77-100
Rays 88 74 715 644 27.6% 9.5% 8.8% 45.9% 77-100
Yankees 85 77 774 745 18.6% 7.9% 8.2% 34.7% 73-96
Red Sox 82 80 819 803 15.4% 6.6% 8.2% 30.2% 70-93
Orioles 79 83 738 766 9.3% 4.5% 5.8% 19.6% 68-90
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Tigers 89 73 797 714 46.4% 6.6% 6.8% 59.8% 77-100
Royals 81 81 716 721 19.3% 5.6% 6.5% 31.4% 70-92
Indians 80 82 741 744 18.7% 5.0% 6.2% 29.9% 69-91
White Sox 76 86 718 767 12.4% 4.0% 4.8% 21.2% 65-88
Twins 67 95 693 825 3.2% 0.9% 1.6% 5.6% 56-78
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Angels 91 71 763 656 40.0% 12.3% 9.3% 61.7% 80-103
Rangers 88 74 795 727 30.1% 12.0% 10.0% 52.1% 77-100
Athletics 87 75 731 679 24.6% 12.1% 10.0% 46.6% 75-98
Mariners 73 89 660 722 4.7% 2.9% 3.8% 11.4% 61-84
Astros 60 102 649 866 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 1.6% 49-72
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Nationals 90 72 690 598 44.5% 11.3% 8.3% 64.0% 79-102
Braves 88 74 673 622 32.3% 11.5% 9.7% 53.5% 77-99
Phillies 80 82 665 680 15.1% 7.2% 7.9% 30.1% 69-92
Mets 73 89 645 703 5.3% 3.1% 4.2% 12.6% 61-84
Marlins 69 93 624 731 2.8% 1.9% 2.5% 7.3% 57-80
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Reds 89 73 741 662 41.0% 8.9% 7.9% 57.8% 78-101
Cardinals 85 77 686 655 26.8% 8.8% 7.8% 43.4% 73-96
Brewers 79 83 704 733 13.4% 5.5% 6.5% 25.3% 67-90
Pirates 78 84 665 691 11.6% 4.3% 5.6% 21.5% 66-89
Cubs 74 88 652 705 7.2% 3.3% 4.1% 14.6% 63-85
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Dodgers 87 75 677 618 30.9% 9.4% 8.9% 49.2% 76-99
Giants 87 75 665 613 28.3% 9.1% 9.0% 46.4% 76-98
Diamondbacks 84 78 716 696 22.7% 8.1% 8.0% 38.8% 73-95
Padres 78 84 643 668 11.0% 4.4% 5.4% 20.8% 66-89
Rockies 74 88 775 847 7.2% 3.2% 4.2% 14.6% 63-85

W: Projected final 2013 wins
L: Projected final 2013 losses
RS: Projected final 2013 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2013 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation

As noted earlier, this is NOT saying that you can win the NL West by winning 87 games.  It’s saying that the team that finished in first most frequently in that division averaged 87 wins over hundreds of thousands of seasons.  Here are the average win totals for each spot in each division.

Place ALE ALC ALW NLE NLC NLW
1 94 91 95 94 92 92
2 89 84 89 87 85 87
3 85 79 83 80 81 83
4 81 74 73 73 76 78
5 75 66 60 66 70 71
WC1 91 90
WC2 87 86

Here is how each division broke down in terms of percentages using the aforementioned pie charts.

In the AL East, we’ve got the mostly tightly bunched group of teams in baseball, with just 10 wins separating Toronto at the top and Baltimore at the bottom.  Toronto and Tampa Bay look like they’re neck and neck as of right now.  The Yankees are already ravaged by injuries and at this point it doesn’t seem like it would take a lot for them to end up having a losing season and even finish last.  Should they lose Robinson Cano or CC Sabathia for any significant amount of time that may be exactly what happens.  Boston has improved quite a bit from where they were at the end of last season, although they apparently still have a ways to go.  The projections are expecting a big regression from Baltimore, although they have enough talented young players with upside that they could beat their projections by quite a bit.
     

The AL Central basically looks like Detroit and everyone else.  Kansas City and Cleveland are jockeying behind the Tigers.  It’ll be interesting to see what the Indians get out of Scott Kazmir, who did not have a Steamer projection and projected pretty poorly in all the other systems.  He’s throwing harder than he was when last seen in the majors and could surprise some people.  For the Royals, it looks like Big Game James may not get into many big games this year, although stranger things have happened.  The White Sox are projected to fall off a bit from last season, and the Twins look like they aren’t going to be very good.

There’s a new floormat in the AL West, and it’s the Houston Astros.  Can they lose 100+ games for the third year in a row?  The projections think they can.  Houston projects to be so bad that they have essentially balanced out the league difference between the AL and NL.  Last year, the AL went 1150-1118 thanks to interleague play.  If you add Houston’s 55-107 to that you get a record of 1205-1225.  Los Anaheim looks like the favorite here and project to win more games than any other team in baseball, with Texas a strong second.  The Angels do have some concerns in their rotation, which could open the door for the Rangers.  Oakland projects to fall back a bit from last year, but still should be in contention.  Seattle still doesn’t look particularly good, although they should score some more runs this year, which is something.

The Nationals project as favorites in the NL East, especially now that the restrictions are off Stephen Strasburg.  The Braves aren’t quite at their level, but project to be pretty good as well.  The Phillies appear to be showing their age, and if Roy Halladay doesn’t bounce back they could be in trouble.  The Mets don’t look good to me, especially with Johan Santana looking iffy and the Marlins may be as bad as the Astros.  If Placido Polanco is hitting cleanup to ‘protect’ Giancarlo Stanton, it’s hard to see them winning 60 games.

In the Central, the Reds look like the clear favorite.  The Cardinals were closer before losing Chris Carpenter and Rafael Furcal, but they seem like the second best team in the division.  Pittsburgh and Milwaukee are neck and neck with each other and the Cubs look to be bringing up the rear.

In the West, the Dodgers are spending money like there’s no tomorrow but I’m not so sure they’re spending it all that well.  They project a hair better than San Francisco but given the margin of error inherent in projections there’s really no difference in their projections.  The Diamondbacks had a bizarre offseason and losing Adam Eaton for two months hurts, but they should be in the mix if a few things go their way.  The Padres look a bit better than I expected, although still not good and the Rockies stink.

Usually there’s a surprise team or two in here but this year nothing really stands out.  In general it seems that aside from a handful of really bad teams we’re seeing more parity.  Between that and the second wild card you can pretty much see any team in baseball sneaking into the postseason.  Except the Astros.

And there you have it.  The 2013 projection blowout.  Results are not guaranteed.

On an unrelated note, our sister site, the Replacement Level Red Sox launches today. Check them out at replacementlevelredsox.com.

--Posted at 6:59 am by SG / 45 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, December 18, 2012

NYDN: Dickey to Jays makes Girardi’s job tougher

Joe Girardi’s job got a little tougher this week — and he knows it.

The Blue Jays continued their busy winter, trading four players to the Mets in exchange for R.A. Dickey, the National League’s reigning Cy Young Award winner.

Dickey joins a rotation that had already bulked up with the additions of Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson, adding them to incumbent starters Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero to form a very deep starting five.

“The Blue Jays have done a lot to improve their team,” Girardi said in an e-mail to the Daily News. “Adding a pitcher like Dickey gives them another quality starter at the top of their rotation. When you look at Toronto’s rotation, it now has a lot of different looks and a lot of experience with Johnson, Buehrle and now Dickey.”

I don’t expect Dickey to repeat his 2012, but CAIRO still likes him a lot in 2013.  As a Jay he projects to put up an ERA of around 3.65 over 211 innings which would be worth somewhere in the area of 4.5 - 5 wins.  Here’s how the AL East now projects adding Dickey to the Jays, Stephen Drew to the Red Sox and a few other tweaks to the other teams’ depth charts.

TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Blue Jays 90 72 805 724 28.2% 10.3% 9.9% 48.4%
Yankees 88 74 790 739 24.4% 10.4% 9.7% 44.5%
Rays 87 75 699 636 23.9% 9.8% 9.2% 42.9%
Red Sox 84 78 815 782 16.6% 7.8% 8.5% 32.9%
Orioles 77 85 729 781 6.8% 4.1% 5.6% 16.6%

The teams are still pretty tightly bunched, but Toronto’s got a bit of a separation from the pack now.  Anyway, projected standings in December don’t really tell us all that much so please Orioles fans don’t kill me.

--Posted at 9:09 am by SG / 36 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, December 12, 2012

How Does Signing Youkilis Impact the AL East?

I re-ran my projected standings with Kevin Youkilis getting 500 PA split among 3B, 1B and DH and here’s how it impacted the AL East projected standings.

Before:

TM  W   Div  WC1   WC2  PS%
Rays 86.0 25.8% 8.4% 10.2% 44.4%
Blue Jays 86.0 25.3% 9.2% 8.2% 42.7%
Yankees 85.0 23.0% 8.6% 7.7% 39.3%
Red Sox 84.0 20.1% 7.7% 8.4% 36.2%
Orioles 73.0 5.8% 3.1% 5.0% 13.9%

After:

TM W Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Blue Jays 86.5 25.3% 9.0% 8.7% 42.9%
Yankees 86.4 25.0% 8.7% 9.2% 42.9%
Rays 86.0 24.6% 8.7% 8.8% 42.1%
Red Sox 82.6 17.9% 6.9% 8.4% 33.2%
Orioles 74.1 7.3% 3.7% 4.8% 15.8%

Difference:

TM W Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Blue Jays 0.5 -0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7%
Yankees 1.4 0.1% 1.5% 3.6% 5.0%
Rays 0.0 0.3% -1.4% -2.3% -3.6%
Red Sox -1.4 -0.8% 0.0% -3.0% -3.0%
Orioles 1.1 0.6% -0.2% 1.9% 1.7%

This includes all the other moves that were made since I ran these as well as some adjustments in playing time so that also affects this, but basically adding Youkilis if he can get 500 PA is worth about a win and a half or so.  Is that worth $12M?  It depends on how much you value a 5% increase in qualifying for the postseason I guess.

--Posted at 8:24 am by SG / 65 Comments | - (0)




Monday, December 10, 2012

CAIRO 2013 v0.2’s Extremely Early and Completely Useless 2013 Projected MLB Standings

Since I was curious about how the big trade between Kansas City and Tampa Bay affected the AL East, I ran some projected standings based on rosters as of last night.  As the title says, this is extremely early and completely useless so think of it more as a goof than anything too serious.  So using CAIRO v0.2 and the depth charts from MLB Depth Charts and Rotochamp as a rough gauge of playing time, here’s how the 2013 MLB season looks as of December 10.

Update: CAIRO v0.5 is now available

Date 12/10/2012
Iterations 100000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Rays 86 76 698 643 25.8% 8.4% 10.2% 44.4%
Blue Jays 86 76 789 741 25.3% 9.2% 8.2% 42.7%
Yankees 85 77 771 738 23.0% 8.6% 7.7% 39.3%
Red Sox 84 78 788 759 20.1% 7.7% 8.4% 36.2%
Orioles 73 89 718 780 5.8% 3.1% 5.0% 13.9%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Tigers 91 71 791 709 46.2% 7.3% 6.0% 59.5%
Royals 84 78 717 701 24.7% 6.4% 8.3% 39.4%
White Sox 80 82 725 755 18.2% 4.4% 6.5% 29.0%
Indians 73 89 692 768 7.3% 2.7% 4.0% 14.0%
Twins 65 97 696 854 3.7% 1.6% 1.6% 6.9%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Angels 95 67 726 616 43.4% 12.8% 9.3% 65.6%
Rangers 88 74 762 699 24.7% 12.1% 10.6% 47.5%
Athletics 88 74 712 653 25.2% 11.0% 8.6% 44.8%
Mariners 74 88 626 692 6.0% 4.3% 5.0% 15.3%
Astros 60 102 651 850 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% 1.8%
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Nationals 94 68 699 590 46.4% 9.9% 8.0% 64.2%
Braves 86 76 686 630 23.8% 11.2% 8.9% 43.9%
Phillies 82 80 666 657 18.0% 7.0% 7.9% 32.9%
Mets 75 87 665 715 8.3% 4.7% 5.3% 18.2%
Marlins 69 93 625 729 3.5% 2.0% 2.9% 8.4%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Reds 91 71 722 635 41.9% 7.9% 7.5% 57.3%
Cardinals 86 76 696 645 28.0% 7.9% 8.7% 44.6%
Brewers 78 84 711 742 12.7% 5.2% 6.5% 24.4%
Pirates 77 85 663 688 11.1% 5.5% 6.6% 23.1%
Cubs 71 91 635 721 6.3% 2.4% 3.5% 12.1%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Dodgers 90 72 677 587 35.0% 9.3% 9.0% 53.4%
Giants 87 75 663 598 27.6% 9.8% 8.2% 45.6%
Diamondbacks 81 81 692 678 15.9% 7.1% 7.1% 30.1%
Padres 81 81 659 654 15.9% 7.7% 7.6% 31.3%
Rockies 71 91 770 865 5.6% 2.4% 2.5% 10.5%

The Astros are going to make it awfully easy for the AL West teams to win the wild cards, aren’t they?

Did I mention that these are extremely early and completely useless?

--Posted at 8:50 am by SG / 60 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, December 6, 2012

2013 CAIRO MLB Projections v0.2

I’ve decided to post an update for CAIRO since the Yankees have made so many significant moves.  Well, maybe not but some teams have.

It can be downloaded at the following link.

cairo_2013_mlb_projections_v0.2.zip

Update: CAIRO v0.5 is now available

As far as what’s changed since version 0.1:
- I’ve moved players that have switched teams
- Added a few players like Kyuji Fujikawa
- Added a tab for projected wOBA platoon splits.  You can replace CAIRO’s projected wOBA with any other you like and it will recalculate them.  These are based on the work done on platoon splits in The Book and a spreadsheet designed by berselius from ObstructedView.net.
- Since I don’t bother with projecting playing time aside from whatever CAIRO spits out, I’ve got additional tabs for batters and pitchers based on the depth charts at RotoChamp.  CAIRO’s more for statistical analysis than Fantasy but hopefully this will help out any people that want to use it for Fantasy and it’s set up so that I can update it very easily in future releases.

As a goof I ran 100 iterations of the 2013 MLB schedule to get some projected standings but won’t post the whole thing.  Here’s how the AL East looks as of last night.

Team W L RF RA Div WC1 WC2
TAM 88 74 687 620 33.5 10.8 11.5
NYA 87 75 773 732 32.0 8.0 7.5
TOR 86 76 797 754 24.5 7.5 14.5
BOS 80 82 793 782 5.0 4.5 5.5
BAL 77 85 728 777 5.0 2.8 4.5

Get to work Cashman!

--Posted at 7:08 am by SG / 60 Comments | - (0)




Friday, November 30, 2012

NY Times: Martin Leaves the Yankees for the Pirates

Russell Martin’s two-year tenure with the Yankees ended Thursday when he agreed to a two-year, $17 million deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates, leaving the Yankees without a No. 1 catcher.

“I had a great time in New York,” Martin said by phone from Montreal, his hometown. “It was probably the best baseball experience of my life. But this is the business, and it was time to move on.”

It seems to me the Yankees could have matched this deal and I’m not sure why they didn’t.  If it would have taken three years to keep Martin I’d have felt better about letting him walk, but at 2 years and $17M he only has to be worth about 3 wins over two years to be worth it.

We got spoiled by the elite offense that Jorge Posada provided for years as a catcher that makes it a bit harder to appreciate Martin I think.  No, he’s not a great hitter, but neither are the majority of catchers in baseball and there’s pretty some evidence that Martin’s defense makes him even more valuable than his basic stats indicate.

I think this confirms that getting to the target of a $189M payroll in 2014 may be the Yankees #1 focus right now, and that’s going to make it a bit harder to build a super team for 2013.  Of course, you don’t need a super team to win a World Series, but it helps.

I’m not sure where the Yankees will go from here.  I’d be surprised if the starting catcher on Opening Day is on the roster right now.  Here’s the list of free agent catchers and how CAIRO would project them as Yankees.

Last First Age Pos Tm Lg PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO GDP avg obp slg wOBA BR BR/650 BRAR oWAR
Napoli Mike 32 C NYA AL 394 342 86 16 1 22 44 98 9 .250 .344 .493 .360 55 91 29 2.9
Pierzynski A.J. 37 C NYA AL 458 424 114 20 2 12 22 53 12 .270 .309 .412 .313 49 69 18 1.8
Blanco Henry 42 C NYA AL 168 152 36 7 0 6 14 35 3 .234 .298 .396 .304 17 67 6 0.6
Shoppach Kelly 33 C NYA AL 287 251 54 10 1 11 23 90 4 .214 .299 .387 .303 29 66 10 1.0
Snyder Chris 32 C NYA AL 237 202 43 7 0 8 30 57 5 .213 .319 .366 .308 24 65 8 0.8
Barajas Rod 38 C NYA AL 315 286 64 11 0 12 19 60 5 .225 .280 .391 .291 30 62 9 0.9
Olivo Miguel 35 C NYA AL 436 410 95 18 1 18 20 120 8 .231 .265 .415 .290 41 62 13 1.3
Schneider Brian 37 C NYA AL 160 143 31 6 0 3 13 30 4 .219 .291 .335 .281 13 54 3 0.3
Treanor Matt 37 C NYA AL 183 157 33 5 1 3 20 36 3 .211 .304 .312 .282 15 52 3 0.3
Nickeas Mike 30 C NYA AL 267 239 54 11 0 4 24 49 6 .224 .298 .315 .279 21 52 4 0.4
Paulino Carlos 24 C NYA AL 305 287 62 14 1 4 14 58 7 .215 .257 .310 .252 20 42 -1 -0.1

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
oWAR: Offensive wins above replacement (BRAR divided by 10, although maybe it should be more like 9.5 now)

Not a particularly inspired bunch.

Napoli’s almost certainly not an option, and I’m guessing Pierzynski will want(and get) two years.  So he’s not an option either.  I don’t even know if Henry Blanco is still playing and I’m not sure why CAIRO thinks so highly of a 42 year old catcher, although I guess it probably has to do with him being utilized in a way that plays to his strengths which makes his rate stats better.  He’s not a starter anyway.  Actually, almost none of these guys are except for Pierzynski and Olivo.

So maybe someone like Olivo, Shoppach, Barajas or Snyder will be on their radar, with an eye on anyone who may get non-tendered.

I don’t know that it’s a huge deal.  I ran some projections last night that have the Yankees as around an 89 win team right now.  Considering they were an 80 win team if they had done nothing and have since re-signed Hiroki Kuroda (4.8 wins), Andy Pettitte (2.8 wins) and Mariano Rivera (1.0 win without leverage, maybe 1.5 with)  that seems about right.  They can probably add a win or two in RF if they can’t upgrade catcher.  I’m also assuming Michael Pineda won’t pitch this year, so if by some miracle he’s able to contribute in the second half that could add a win or two.

For whatever it’s worth at this early stage(ie, not a whole hell of a lot), I’ve got Toronto at around 88 wins assuming relatively good health from Jose Bautista, Jose Reyes and Josh Johnson but between Bautista’s wrist, Reyes’s hamstrings on turf and Josh Johnson’s injury history that may be somewhat optimistic.  The Rays are at around 86 wins but they can add a bat and get to 90 wins pretty easily by upgrading 1B or the OF (or both).  The Orioles are in the 77 win range, and Boston’s bringing up the rear as they should be at about 74 wins.  Of course those teams aren’t done with their offseasons yet so all of this is subject to change.

--Posted at 9:10 am by SG / 31 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, October 11, 2012

2012 MLB Division Series Odds through Games of October 10

Team Div
NYA 81.3%
STL 76.8%
DET 64.1%
SFN 54.0%
CIN 46.0%
OAK 35.9%
WAS 23.2%
BAL 18.7%

Div: Probability of winning divisional series

--Posted at 8:09 am by SG / 73 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, October 10, 2012

2012 MLB Division Series Odds through Games of October 9

Team Div
DET 86.0%
CIN 75.8%
NYA 64.0%
STL 52.7%
WAS 47.2%
BAL 35.9%
SFN 24.1%
OAK 13.9%

Div: Probability of winning divisional series

 

--Posted at 8:33 am by SG / 33 Comments | - (0)




Monday, October 8, 2012

2012 MLB Division Series Odds through Games of October 7

Team Assigned Win % Division %
DET.631 92.6%
CIN.558 87.5%
NYA.635 83.6%
WAS.617 63.8%
STL.568 36.2%
BAL.513 16.4%
SFN.539 12.5%
OAK.529 7.4%

Assigned Win %: Estimate of team strength using Oliver projections and depth charts for remaining games in series
Division %: Projected odds of advancing past the division series

--Posted at 8:13 am by SG / 34 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, October 7, 2012

2012 ALDS Preview - Orioles vs. Yankees

After battling down to the wire, the Yankees were able to stave off the Orioles to win the AL East by two games.  Their reward for that is to play the Orioles on the road for two games to start the ALDS.

All season long, we’ve heard/read/said that the Orioles were not for real, that they were lucky and that they were due to crash at any point.  That was mainly a function of a run differential that was negative for almost the entire season as well as seemingly unsustainable records in both one run games (29-9) and extra inning games (16-2).  In general, teams approach about .500 in those games although having a strong bullpen can help a team win a higher percentage of close games and that’s something the Orioles have had all season.

None of what the 2012 Orioles got lucky with matters right now.  The only thing that matters is how good the 25 man roster they will have for the ALDS is, and how it may match up against the Yankees.  Because of that, I’m going to look at projections for the Orioles and Yankees which will account for their performances this year as well as in recent prior seasons.  This will account for the fact that some players may have over/under performed expectations and are possibly better or worse than their 2012 numbers, but more importantly it will account for the fact that the rosters and playing time distributions in a five game series are a lot different than they are in a 162 game season and simply comparing two teams’ over 2012 Pythagenpat records is the height of laziness when it comes to statistical analysis.  Well that or using FIP for pitcher WAR.  But I digress.

For the projections, I’m using Oliver from the Hardball Times.  They’ve been updated as of last week and include 2012 MLEs for players that spent time in the minors so I feel they are the most complete version of forecasts available right now.

So, as I mentioned, it’s all about rosters and playing time.  Based on what is out there, here is my rough guess at those two things.  First up, the Orioles’ lineup and bench.

Team BAL projection oliver
Order Player Pos PA avg/obp/slg woba Outs BR
1 Nate McLouth LF 22 .238/.325/.388 .317 15 2.5
2 J.J. Hardy SS 22 .255/.297/.428 .312 16 2.5
3 Chris Davis RF 21 .278/.331/.494 .354 14 3.0
4 Adam Jones CF 21 .289/.330/.485 .350 14 2.9
5 Matt Wieters C 21 .256/.325/.428 .329 15 2.5
6 Jim Thome DH 15 .276/.379/.558 .400 10 2.6
7 Mark Reynolds 1B 21 .229/.335/.481 .352 14 2.9
8 Manny Machado 3B 21 .249/.300/.393 .303 15 2.2
9 Ryan Flaherty 2B 12 .247/.298/.400 .304 9 1.3
Bench Luis Exposito C 0 .232/.289/.360 .287 0 0.0
Bench Taylor Teagarden C 0 .202/.273/.337 .272 0 0.0
Bench Omar Quintanilla IF 1 .247/.304/.386 .302 1 0.1
Bench Robert Andino UT 8 .243/.297/.351 .288 6 0.7
Bench Lew Ford OF 8 .273/.330/.460 .342 6 1.1
Bench Xavier Avery OF 1 .233/.292/.328 .276 1 0.1
Bench Endy Chavez OF 2 .258/.295/.359 .287 1 0.2
Total 196 135 24.5

wOBA: Weighted on base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs

The idea here is to try and allocate PA over a 5 games series.  So basically it was a case of adding PA until the team got to 135 outs (27 outs times 5 games).  That includes double plays and obviously there may be games where teams don’t need to bat for 27 outs (home wins) but as long as the scale is the same for both teams it doesn’t matter.

The Yankees will be throwing lefties CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte in the first two games and if there was a game 5 it’d probably be CC again so that might impact some of the PAs for the lefties.  So I gave some DH PA to Lew Ford instead of Jim Thome and some 2B PA to Robert Andino instead of Ryan Flaherty.  For the most part I don’t expect the other bench guys to play much.

Basically this estimates that the Orioles would score about 24.5 runs in an average five game series using this allocation of playing time.

And here’s what the Yankees lineup and bench should like.

Team NYA projection oliver
Order Player Pos PA avg/obp/slg woba Outs BR
1 Derek Jeter SS 21 .299/.353/.405 .337 14 2.6
2 Ichiro Suzuki LF 21 .289/.324/.385 .313 14 2.4
3 Alex Rodriguez 3B 21 .271/.348/.462 .352 14 2.9
4 Robinson Cano 2B 21 .304/.361/.530 .381 14 3.4
5 Mark Teixeira 1B 21 .256/.346/.489 .359 14 3.0
6 Nick Swisher RF 21 .267/.357/.463 .357 14 3.0
7 Curtis Granderson CF 21 .249/.337/.509 .360 14 3.1
8 Raul Ibanez DH 13 .256/.319/.454 .334 9 1.7
9 Russell Martin C 20 .232/.323/.389 .317 14 2.2
Bench Eric Chavez 3B 10 .264/.321/.431 .327 7 1.2
Bench Eduardo Nunez DH 8 .254/.294/.346 .283 6 0.7
Bench Jayson Nix IF 3 .216/.273/.356 .276 2 0.3
Bench Chris Stewart C 0 .230/.289/.318 .272 0 0.0
Bench Brett Gardner OF 0 .266/.360/.391 .337 0 0.0
Bench Andruw Jones OF 0 .232/.327/.456 .340 0 0.0
Bench Chris Dickerson IF 0 .252/.332/.384 .319 0 0.0
Total 201 135 26.4

Yes, I know Andruw Jones and Chris Dickerson are not on the roster.  They are just place holders.  Anyway, the only spot I see some finagling of playing time is DH with some combination of Raul Ibanez, Eduardo Nunez, Alex Rodriguez and Eric Chavez.  I threw Jayson Nix three PA for the hell of it as well. 

So the Yankees have a very slight offensive edge here, 26.4 runs to 24.5 runs.

How about the pitching?  Here’s my stab at the Orioles first.

Player Role IP H R ER HR BB K ERA
Jason Hammel SP1 7 7 3 3 1 2 6 4.06
Wei-Yin Chen SP2 6 6 3 3 1 2 4 4.06
Miguel Gonzalez SP3 5 5 3 3 1 2 4 4.78
Chris Tillman SP4 5 6 3 3 1 2 4 5.22
Joe Saunders SP5 5 6 3 3 1 2 3 4.52
Jim Johnson CL 3 3 1 1 0 1 2 3.48
Pedro Strop SU 3 3 1 1 0 2 3 4.12
Luis Ayala SU 3 3 1 1 0 1 2 4.04
Darren O’Day MR 4 4 2 2 1 1 4 3.56
Brian Matusz MR 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 5.09
Jake Arrieta MR 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 4.82
Troy Patton MR 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 3.97
Tommy Hunter LR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.85
Zach Britton LR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.44
Total 45 46 23 21 6 15 34 4.28

Apparently the Orioles will be using Jason hammel, Wei-Yin Chen and Miguel Gonzalez in the first three games.  It’s expected that Chris Tillman would pitch the fourth game if necessary although it could also be Zach Britton or Joe Saunders.  So a lot of this could be impacted by how that plays out.

Although Hammel is on tab to pitch the opener which should make him available for Game 5 if needed, he hasn’t been healthy in the second half so I restricted him to one start and gave a start to Joe Saunders.  Because Oliver doesn’t like most of the O’s starting pitchers after Hammel and Chen and I think it may be underselling them a bit I limited them to five innings and gave more innings to the bullpen where they have better projected performers.

The big question for Baltimore is whether Gonzalez and Tillman are closer to the 3.25 and 2.93 ERAs they posted in the regular season or to their 4.78 and 5.22 projected ERAs.  It’s the difference of two runs in this scenario.  That may not seem like much, but it’s the equivalent of a swing of about six wins in a five game series but I’ll get into that in more detail shortly.

Same crap for the Yankees.

Player Role IP H R ER HR BB K ERA
CC Sabathia SP1 14 13 6 5 1 4 13 3.44
Andy Pettitte SP2 6 6 3 2 1 2 5 3.58
Hiroki Kuroda SP3 6 6 3 2 1 1 5 3.67
Phil Hughes SP4 5 5 3 2 1 1 4 4.22
Ivan Nova SP5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.60
Rafael Soriano CL 3 3 1 1 0 1 3 3.41
David Robertson SU 3 2 1 1 0 1 4 3.46
Boone Logan SU 2 2 1 1 0 1 2 3.99
David Phelps MR 2 2 1 1 0 1 2 4.06
Joba Chamberlain MR 2 2 1 1 0 1 2 4.14
Clay Rapada MR 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 3.62
Cody Eppley MR 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4.15
Derek Lowe LR 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 4.64
Cory Wade LR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.21
Total 45 42 20 18 5 14 41 3.68

The Yankees should be in very good shape if the CC Sabathia we saw in his last three starts is the CC Sabathia we see this postseason.  His velocity still hasn’t been overly impressive to me and the fact that he pitched well against an awful Blue Jays team and an even worse Red Sox team isn’t overly impressive to me either.  But let’s hope for the best.

So we’re looking at a Yankee pitching staff that projects to allow around 20 runs vs. a Baltimore staff that projects to allow 23.  Running the offensive and pitching numbers through Pythagenpat looks like this.

Team BAL NYA
RS 24.5 26.4
RA 23.1 19.9
pyth .528 .631
p162 85.5 102.2
w% 39.7% 60.3%

If you instead think that Gonzalez and Tillman are the guys they were in 2012 it looks like this.

Team BAL NYA
RS 24.5 26.4
RA 21.0 19.9
pyth .572 .631
p162 92.7 102.2
w% 44.1% 55.9%

That seems a bit closer to reality for me.  The Yankees should be favorites to win this series, but not overwhelmingly so.

--Posted at 8:25 am by SG / 30 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, October 6, 2012

NY Times: Returning to Playoffs in Style, Orioles Await Yankees

Buck Showalter managed the first American League wild-card team, the 1995 Yankees, losing an excruciating division series. On Friday he was here for the league’s first one-game wild card playoff as manager of the Baltimore Orioles. There was no series this time, just one chance to continue a miracle season.

“Our approach is it’s sudden life, not sudden death, and there’s something good, real good, that can happen,” Showalter said before batting practice at Rangers Ballpark. “If you had told us at the end of the season last year that we’d have a chance to put a roster together for one game, we’d have signed up for that in blood. I’m sure Texas feels the same way.”

Maybe, but probably not. The Rangers won the last two A.L. pennants and came within a strike of their first World Series title last October. They led the West division this season from the fourth game through the 161st, but tumbled into the wild-card game the last day of the regular season. Now they are finished, victims of a long-dormant potion called Oriole Magic.

Raise your hand if you can guess the next victims of Oriole Magic.

--Posted at 1:10 pm by SG / 20 Comments | - (0)




Monday, October 1, 2012

Reuters: Rangers, Orioles, Yankees make postseason

(Reuters) - Texas closer Joe Nathan’s critical save helped the Texas Rangers clinch a playoff spot with an 8-7 victory over the Los Angeles Angels that also secured postseason berths for the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees on Sunday.

Nathan blew a chance for a save in the opening game of a doubleheader with the Angels, allowing two runs in the ninth in a 5-4 defeat, but he nailed down the ninth in the nightcap to launch Texas back into the postseason.

The two-time American League champions (93-66) gained at least a wild-card berth with the victory, which put them two games ahead of Oakland in the American League West with three to play in the regular season.

Baltimore and New York, who both won on Sunday to remain deadlocked in the American League East, also secured at least a wild-card spot thanks to the Rangers’ triumph.

At least this saves me typing “if by some miracle the Yankees make the postseason” for a few days.

The way this season has unfolded leaves a lot of uncertainty about who the Yankees will be playing and where they’ll be playing. 

They could still end up as the #1 seed and have home field advantage through the ALCS if they win one more game than Texas.  That’d give both teams the same record, but since the Yankees won the season series vs. the Rangers they’d get the tiebreaker. 

Obviously if they win one more game than Baltimore they win the AL East outright.  Whichever team wins the AL East will be the #2 seed at the very minimum since Detroit can’t win more than 89 games.  If the Yanks and O’s end up tied then they’ll have to play a one game playoff game for the division title.  Whomever wins that game will get Detroit in the ALDS and whomever loses that game will get to play the second wild card team in a one game play-in, which looks like it’ll most likely be Oakland but could also end up being Tampa Bay or the Angels.

You could see a scenario where the Yankees tie Baltimore, then lose the division playoff game then have to play the second wild card team just to get into the ALDS.  So in theory the Yankees would have to get through two elimination games just to get into the ALDS.  If you assume they’d used CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda in those games, which may not work given the way the rotation is currently configured, you’re looking at an ALDS rotation of Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes and ??? in the first three games if by some miracle the Yankees make the ALDS.

Wait, I thought I didn’t have to say if by some miracle anymore?

I think Texas is the best team in baseball, but I don’t necessarily think they’re the scariest opponent the Yankees may face.  They lead the AL in runs scored and have a solid defense and their pitching from top to bottom is strong, but they don’t necessarily have a true dominant #1 starter.  That being said, Yu Darvish has the stuff to pitch like one in any given game and Matt Harrison has had a great year even if he’s pitching a bit over his head.  Ryan Dempster’s ERA hasn’t been great for Texas but his peripherals are actually pretty strong so he is another arm that could give teams fits.

The Tigers have clinched a tie for their division and should be able to set up their rotation to have Justin Verlander going twice in the ALDS, and they’ve obviously got a killer 3-4 in their lineup.  But their defense makes the Yankee defense look like Tampa Bay’s. 

Oakland seems like a possible tough matchup because they can run a bunch of good pitchers at you and have a few guys who have the power to change a game on one swing.  They’re rated as one of the top five defenses in the league by UZR although DRS says they’re closer to average.

Baltimore seems like the weakest possible team out of all of the viable postseason teams, but that doesn’t make them a bad team.  Since August 4 they’ve got a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .654 which is equivalent to a 106 win team.  You can’t completely ignore their early season performance, but you can understand that they’ve changed the composition of their roster significantly enough that it shouldn’t have much bearing in assessing how good they might be right now.

The Rays and Angels face long odds of qualifying for the postseason, but if they get in it’ll be no treat facing either team given their rotations and some of their front-line position players.

The next three days should be exciting.

--Posted at 8:17 am by SG / 29 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, September 29, 2012

Yankees.com: Lead remains one with Yanks’ rout in Toronto

TORONTO—Russell Martin has tried to take pride in not bringing his at-bats behind the plate during what has been a mostly disappointing season, but the Yankees have no complaints about how he’s swinging now.

Martin continued his September surge by launching a big three-run homer to break open Friday’s 11-4 victory over the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre, helping inch the Yankees closer to their goal of securing the American League East title.

New York’s victory dropped its magic number for clinching a postseason berth to two and a division title to five, but the Yankees and second-place Orioles remain separated by just one game in the AL East, as Baltimore posted a 9-1 win over the Red Sox that the Yankees couldn’t help but notice on the scoreboard.

Martin’s picked the right time to start getting hits. Now let’s hope that Robinson Cano isn’t hurt too badly.

Is there some reason Rafael Soriano had to pitch with a seven run lead last night?  Just curious, I didn’t get to see the game.

And I’d like to thank the Red Sox for putting forth such a strong effort against the Orioles.  Getting a leadoff single and then not getting another hit the rest of the game?  That’s almost Yankee-like.  Let’s hope they can keep applying the pressure to the Orioles over the next two days.

--Posted at 6:13 am by SG / 8 Comments | - (0)




Friday, September 28, 2012

Yankee and Oriole Win Probabilities over the Rest of 2012

I’ve become really pessimistic about the Yankees’ chances of winning the division, so I’m hoping that if I look at the rest of the schedule rationally I’ll feel a bit better about things.

I did revised CAIRO projections for Baltimore, Boston, Tampa Bay, Toronto and the Yankees and here is what they say.

Projected runs scored per game:
NY: 4.8
TB: 4.5
BOS: 4.3
BAL: 4.1
TOR: 3.8

Using these offensive numbers with the revised pitching projections for the scheduled starters(for six innings) and the average 2012 relief ERA for each team for three innings for the six remaining games gives us this.

Opponent Baltimore xW Opponent Yankees xW
Cook Tillman 0.58 Jenkins Kuroda 0.53
Doubront Johnson 0.45 Romero Pettitte 0.73
Stewart Chen 0.65 Alvarez Hughes 0.60
Cobb Saunders 0.42 Buchholz Sabathia 0.45
Shields Gonzalez 0.54 Lester Nova 0.38
Hellickson Tillman 0.33 Matsuzaka Kuroda 0.55
2.96 3.24

xW: Expected win probability for the Orioles and Yankees using Bill James’s log5 methodology

So there you go.  The Yankees should win the AL East by 1.28 games.  Nothing to worry about.

--Posted at 10:31 am by SG / 26 Comments | - (0)




Friday, September 21, 2012

Yankees.com: Martin’s walk-off HR keeps Yanks alone in first

NEW YORK—As Russell Martin galloped down the third-base line, taking a moment to see how far he could possibly fling his batting helmet, the Yankees clustered at home plate to celebrate what most agreed was their biggest hit of the season.

The schedule is growing thin, the games are becoming more crucial, and the Yankees went home with exactly what they needed on this night. Martin’s 10th-inning blast was the game-winner, lifting New York to a 2-1 victory over the Athletics on Friday at Yankee Stadium.

“There’s pressure, but it’s fun; it’s a fun atmosphere,” Martin said. “There’s a lot of energy in the crowd, you can feel the weather change a little bit. Playoff weather is coming. I like it. I enjoy it. I’m ready for it.”

No kneeling tonight.

I didn’t see much of CC’s performance but it looks like he had a heck of a night.  Apparently, it’s too much to ask the Red Sox to play the Orioles hard this weekend.  I guess they’re saving themselves for the last series of the season in the Bronx.

--Posted at 11:11 pm by Jonathan / 20 Comments | - (0)



The Postseason Implications of this Series with Oakland

The Yankees’ second half slide really began when they got swept in Oakland in a four game series following a home sweep of Toronto.  Prior to that series, the Yankees had a 10 game lead in the division and were 57-34.  Since the opener of that series on July 19 they’ve gone 29-29 and lost nine games off their division lead.

The A’s and Orioles have 85 wins, and the Yankees have 86.  The other wild card contenders at this point have a pretty hard road ahead of them to catch any of the three.  The Angels are at 81 wins, the Rays are at 80, the Tigers are at 79 and Boston’s at 68.  But it’s certainly not impossible that things could change over the next week.

Here’s how the postseason odds for the AL look as of this morning.

TM W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 93.4 68.6 80.1% 10.3% 6.8% 97.1%
Orioles 91.2 70.8 19.6% 35.8% 33.4% 88.8%
Rays 86.5 75.5 0.2% 1.3% 6.0% 7.5%
Red Sox 73.0 89.0 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 72.3 89.7 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 88.2 73.9 72.2% 0.1% 0.8% 73.0%
Tigers 86.4 75.6 27.6% 0.1% 1.9% 29.6%
Royals 74.4 87.6 0.0% - - -
Twins 66.7 95.3 0.0% - - -
Indians 66.5 95.5 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 96.1 65.9 90.9% 7.4% 1.2% 99.4%
Athletics 91.1 70.9 9.0% 43.0% 38.5% 90.5%
Angels 87.2 74.8 0.0% 1.8% 11.4% 13.2%
Mariners 74.9 87.1 0.0% - - -

W: Projected final 2012 wins
L: Projected final 2012 losses
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)


Here are how they change based on the four possible outcomes of this series.

A’s 3-0 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 89.9 72.1 58.2% 4.3% 22.6% 85.1%
Orioles 89.4 72.6 39.2% 5.8% 38.1% 83.1%
Rays 84.9 77.1 0.6% 0.2% 6.0% 6.8%
Red Sox 71.7 90.3 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 71.1 90.9 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 86.6 75.4 74.2% 0.1% 0.2% 74.5%
Tigers 84.8 77.2 23.8% 0.1% 2.2% 26.1%
Royals 73.1 88.9 0.0% - - -
Twins 65.6 96.4 0.0% - - -
Indians 65.2 96.8 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 94.4 67.6 85.2% 12.8% 0.6% 98.6%
Athletics 91.2 70.8 12.8% 74.8% 16.1% 100.0%
Angels 85.8 76.2 0.0% - 12.5% 12.5%
Mariners 73.4 88.6 0.0% - - -
A’s 2-1 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 92.1 69.9 70.9% 9.0% 14.5% 94.4%
Orioles 90.6 71.4 28.3% 18.9% 40.1% 87.3%
Rays 86.2 75.8 0.0% 0.1% 7.2% 7.4%
Red Sox 72.5 89.5 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 71.8 90.2 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 87.6 74.4 76.1% - - 76.1%
Tigers 85.6 76.4 23.1% - 1.8% 24.9%
Royals 74.0 88.0 0.0% - - -
Twins 66.4 95.6 0.0% - - -
Indians 66.1 95.9 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 95.4 66.6 89.2% 10.0% - 99.1%
Athletics 91.6 70.4 10.0% 61.0% 26.1% 97.1%
Angels 86.7 75.3 0.0% 0.2% 9.9% 10.1%
Mariners 74.2 87.8 0.0% - - -
Yankees 2-1 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 93.7 68.3 84.1% 10.2% 4.8% 99.1%
Orioles 91.1 70.9 15.5% 42.2% 34.7% 92.4%
Rays 86.3 75.7 0.0% 0.2% 4.0% 4.2%
Red Sox 72.8 89.2 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 72.1 89.9 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 87.8 74.2 75.3% 0.1% 0.4% 75.8%
Tigers 86.1 75.9 24.3% 0.1% 0.8% 25.2%
Royals 74.3 87.7 0.0% - - -
Twins 66.4 95.6 0.0% - - -
Indians 66.4 95.6 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 95.8 66.2 95.4% 3.2% 0.6% 99.2%
Athletics 90.7 71.3 4.2% 41.3% 44.0% 89.5%
Angels 87.2 74.8 0.0% 2.2% 10.6% 12.9%
Mariners 74.6 87.4 0.0% - - -
Yankees 3-0 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 94.5 67.5 92.6% 6.6% 0.2% 99.3%
Orioles 91.1 70.9 7.0% 58.8% 24.3% 90.1%
Rays 86.3 75.7 0.0% 1.6% 6.5% 8.1%
Red Sox 72.8 89.2 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 72.1 89.9 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 88.1 73.9 74.9% - 0.2% 75.1%
Tigers 86.5 75.5 24.7% 0.4% 1.5% 26.6%
Royals 74.2 87.8 0.0% - - -
Twins 66.4 95.6 0.0% - - -
Indians 66.3 95.7 0.0% - - -
TM W L Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 95.7 66.3 96.2% 2.8% 0.6% 99.6%
Athletics 89.9 72.1 3.2% 26.8% 53.3% 83.4%
Angels 87.1 74.9 0.2% 2.6% 13.4% 16.2%
Mariners 74.6 87.4 0.0% - - -

With Baltimore at Fenway for three games, they have a very good chance at solidifying their postseason odds since they’re guaranteed to gain ground on one of the A’s or Yankees if they can win.  Since Boston is really not even an MLB team at this point I’d be shocked by anything less than sweep.  In fact, if it were possible I’d say the Orioles would pick up four wins in three games against Boston.

But the Yankees can’t worry about that.  They just need to win.  Hopefully they can take two of three.

--Posted at 10:17 am by SG / 17 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Stats Inc: Teagarden lifts O’s to 4-2 win over Seattle in 18

SEATTLE (AP) The Baltimore Orioles weren’t going to be denied a victory - or making history - even if it took 5 hours and 44 minutes to do it.

Taylor Teagarden stroked a pinch-hit RBI single to right in the 18th inning to help give the Baltimore Orioles a 4-2 comeback victory over the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday night.

The win allowed the Orioles (84-64) to pull within a percentage point of the Yankees (83-63) for the lead in the AL East. The Yankees were rained out Tuesday and will play a split double-header with Toronto on Wednesday.

Baltimore maintained a three-game lead in the wild-card race over the Los Angeles Angels, who beat Texas 11-3 in Anaheim.

Congratulations to the Orioles and their fans on their 2012 AL East Championship.

And a special shout out to former Yankee Jesus Montero for going 0 for 8 in this game and stranding 7 men on the bases.  He’d have fit right in on the Yankees, especially since I assume his .259/.297/392 line this year would be in the .359/.397/.592 area if he was playing half his games in DNYS..

--Posted at 5:16 am by SG / 11 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, September 6, 2012

The Postseason Implications of this series with Baltimore

I have to admit that I really have no idea how good the 2012 Orioles are.  Much has been made of the fact that they’ve been outscored this season, but that ignores the fact that their current roster is not the same as the roster they had earlier in the year.  Team talent is not static, and any analysis that assumes that what the Orioles have done all season long is the best way to assess how good they are at this very moment is simplistic and lazy. 

That being said, I’m kind of lazy myself and don’t feel like revising and re-running all their projections right now.  But anyone that wants to discuss how good/bad the Orioles really are should at least acknowledge that they’re no longer giving starts to Tommy Hunter, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta, and what they did in the rotation in the first half of the year should have little bearing on how good the Orioles will be over the rest of the season.  The fact is, they’re right in the heart of the postseason race and anything can happen from here on out.  They very well could win the World Series if everything falls into place for them.

I also am fairly uncertain about how good the Yankees are right now.  I’m reasonably sure they’re not the 94 win team they projected to be at the start of the year when they had Mo and Brett Gardner and Michael Pineda, and that they probably won’t be that good through the end of the year given the injuries they’ve been dealing with and the apparent loss of Curtis Granderson and Andruw Jones’s ability to hit a baseball.  Jones should be less of a concern than Granderson, but Joe Girardi’s stubborn insistence on playing him against every LHP the Yankees face makes him a lot more important to this team than he ought to be.  Especially when teams are champing at the bit to throw every LHP they can find against the Yankees, which is logical. 

We also don’t know if/when they’ll get Mark Teixeira, Ivan Nova and Andy Pettitte back and what they’ll do if/when they do come back.  All three have the potential to significantly improve this team, but all three have a very realistic chance of not being able to return and be effective.  I don’t think that’s pessimistic, I just think it’s realistic.  If the Yankees can get all three back, they improve the lineup and the rotation and the bullpen and start to look like one of the better teams in baseball, if not the best, again.

Rather than using projections and YTD performance for this run through the postseason implications of this series, I’m going to just assume that the Yankees and Orioles are roughly .500 teams.  So consider this more theoretical than the typical postseason odds I run.

In that case, here’s how the postseason probabilites for the AL look as of this morning. 

TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 90 72 782 677 45.0% 13.6% 15.5% 74.1%
Rays 89 73 694 603 29.2% 12.9% 18.0% 60.2%
Orioles 89 73 699 737 25.8% 12.5% 14.8% 53.0%
Red Sox 75 87 781 775 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 73 89 732 783 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 88 74 754 703 61.7% 1.8% 4.2% 67.6%
Tigers 87 75 742 692 38.3% 2.3% 6.9% 47.5%
Royals 73 89 681 745 0.0% - - -
Indians 68 94 668 827 0.0% - - -
Twins 68 94 720 835 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 96 66 834 698 94.8% 3.8% 0.6% 99.2%
Athletics 89 73 691 631 3.6% 37.6% 21.6% 62.8%
Angels 87 75 772 699 1.7% 15.4% 18.6% 35.7%
Mariners 78 84 632 651 0.0% - - -

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

And here’s how they look for each of the possible outcomes of this series.

Orioles 4-0 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Orioles 90 72 699 737 55.6% 11.6% 12.6% 79.8%
Rays 88 74 694 603 27.8% 11.6% 16.3% 55.7%
Yankees 88 74 782 677 15.8% 14.7% 19.1% 49.6%
Red Sox 74 88 781 775 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 73 89 732 783 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 88 74 754 703 64.0% 2.0% 3.6% 69.5%
Tigers 86 76 742 692 35.3% 3.0% 5.4% 43.7%
Royals 73 89 681 745 0.0% - - -
Indians 68 94 668 827 0.0% - - -
Twins 67 95 720 835 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 95 67 834 698 93.9% 4.4% 0.9% 99.2%
Athletics 88 74 691 631 3.9% 35.3% 22.3% 61.6%
Angels 87 75 772 699 1.4% 16.6% 19.2% 37.1%
Mariners 77 85 632 651 0.0% - - -
Orioles 3-1 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Orioles 89 73 699 737 39.0% 14.6% 15.7% 69.3%
Yankees 89 73 782 677 30.2% 15.7% 16.5% 62.5%
Rays 89 73 694 603 30.6% 13.4% 15.9% 59.9%
Red Sox 75 87 781 775 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 73 89 732 783 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 88 74 754 703 64.1% 2.3% 4.2% 70.5%
Tigers 87 75 742 692 35.7% 2.6% 4.9% 43.2%
Royals 73 89 681 745 0.0% - - -
Indians 68 94 668 827 0.0% - - -
Twins 67 95 720 835 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 96 66 834 698 94.5% 3.9% 1.3% 99.6%
Athletics 89 73 691 631 4.1% 33.1% 23.3% 60.5%
Angels 87 75 772 699 1.3% 14.3% 18.1% 33.7%
Mariners 78 84 632 651 0.0% - - -
2-2 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 90 72 782 677 47.3% 13.7% 13.6% 74.6%
Rays 89 73 694 603 30.1% 12.7% 16.1% 58.8%
Orioles 89 73 699 737 22.6% 11.3% 20.9% 54.8%
Red Sox 75 87 781 775 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 73 89 732 783 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 89 73 754 703 60.9% 2.6% 4.0% 67.5%
Tigers 87 75 742 692 39.1% 2.4% 5.9% 47.4%
Royals 73 89 681 745 0.0% - - -
Indians 68 94 668 827 0.0% - - -
Twins 68 94 720 835 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 96 66 834 698 94.7% 4.4% 0.2% 99.3%
Athletics 89 73 691 631 4.2% 35.6% 21.5% 61.3%
Angels 87 75 772 699 1.2% 17.2% 18.0% 36.4%
Mariners 78 84 632 651 0.0% - - -
Yankees 3-1 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 91 71 782 677 67.5% 10.5% 8.7% 86.7%
Rays 89 73 694 603 22.8% 16.8% 17.7% 57.3%
Orioles 88 74 699 737 9.7% 11.3% 18.5% 39.4%
Red Sox 75 87 781 775 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 73 89 732 783 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 88 74 754 703 63.4% 2.0% 2.8% 68.2%
Tigers 87 75 742 692 36.6% 3.0% 5.5% 45.1%
Royals 73 89 681 745 0.0% - - -
Indians 68 94 668 827 0.0% - - -
Twins 68 94 720 835 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 96 66 834 698 94.2% 4.2% 0.9% 99.2%
Athletics 89 73 691 631 4.3% 36.5% 24.5% 65.3%
Angels 87 75 772 699 1.6% 15.8% 21.5% 38.8%
Mariners 78 84 632 651 0.0% - - -
Yankees 4-0 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 92 70 782 677 79.6% 10.5% 6.1% 96.3%
Rays 89 73 694 603 17.9% 22.0% 23.6% 63.5%
Orioles 86 76 699 737 2.3% 8.5% 13.6% 24.4%
Red Sox 75 87 781 775 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 73 89 732 783 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 88 74 754 703 61.1% 3.0% 4.0% 68.1%
Tigers 87 75 742 692 38.7% 3.1% 6.5% 48.3%
Royals 73 89 681 745 0.0% - - -
Indians 68 94 668 827 0.0% - - -
Twins 67 95 720 835 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 96 66 834 698 95.2% 3.7% 0.9% 99.7%
Athletics 89 73 691 631 3.6% 35.1% 24.5% 63.2%
Angels 87 75 772 699 1.1% 13.8% 20.7% 35.6%
Mariners 78 84 632 651 0.0% - - -

Remember that I’m assuming the Yankees are Orioles are .500 teams.  If you think that’s too pessimistic for the Yankees and too optimistic for the Orioles adjust accordingly.

The Yankees, Orioles, Rays, White Sox, Tigers, A’s and Angels are all bunched within four games of each other, so it’s likely going to be a dogfight to qualify for the postseason.  Hopefully the Yankees are better than a .500 team and can pull away from the pack a bit. 

Getting back to Yanks vs. O’s, your pitching matchups for the series are:

Thursday, September 6, 2012
David Phelps, RHP (3-4, 3.13 ERA) vs. Jason Hammel, RHP (8-6, 3.54 ERA)

Phelps hasn’t been great over his last couple of starts, including his last start against Baltimore where he walked 6 in 4.2 innings.  Hammel was the Orioles’ best starter through June 22 with a 2.61 ERA, but he lost effectiveness over his last four starts, probably at least partially due to a knee injury that ended up requiring surgery that put him on the DL on July 13.  He’s making his first start since returning from the DL and may be rusty.  Let’s hope so.

Friday, September 7, 2012
Phil Hughes, RHP (13-12, 4.18 ERA) vs. Wei-Yin Chen, LHP (12-8, 3.79 ERA)

Hughes was cruising through his last start against Baltimore through five innings, but the wheels came off in the sixth.  Maybe if he walks Mark Reynolds every time he can keep the Yankees in this game.  Wei-Yin Chen was dominant against the Yankees in his last start, but his bullpen and defense ended up making his final line look less than great in a game the Yankees stole thanks to a J.J. Hardy error.

Saturday, September 8, 2012
CC Sabathia, LHP (13-4, 3.42 ERA) vs. Joe Saunders, LHP (1-1, 4.63 ERA)

Two finesse lefties face off in the third game of this series.  The Yankees really needed a big game from CC in his last start against Tampa, but didn’t get it.  I’d like to think they’ll get it here but CC hasn’t looked like CC this year and while his peripheral stats are pretty similar to what they’ve been throughout his Yankee career, his fastball velocity is still down almost 2 mph and I think it’s having a significant impact on his effectiveness.  Saunders is back from Little League, and has made one crappy start and one pretty good one.  As a lefty, he’s sure to give the Yankees fits.

Sunday, September 9, 2012
Freddy Garcia, RHP (7-6, 5.09 ERA) vs. Zach Britton, LHP (5-1, 4.15 ERA)

Garcia’s got a 7.53 ERA over his last three starts while averaging less than 5 innings per game.  He’s given up 12 runs over those three games.  Zach Britton has a 0.94 ERA over his last four starts, and has struck out 29 hitters in 28.2 innings while going 4-0.  Oh, and he’s a lefty. 

I hate these pitching matchups.  It will be a monumental task for the Yankees to win this series.  I suppose Phelps vs. Hammel might be okay if Phelps rebounds a bit and Hammel is rusty.  I’d be shocked if Hughes outpitched Chen.  CC should be able to beat Saunders, but WTF knows?  And that last game looks like a disaster.

I think we’re looking at a split here at best, and wouldn’t be surprised to see the Orioles taking 3 out of 4.  Even if that happens, that just means the Yankees will be down by a game in the division as they head to Boston for three games while the Orioles get to host Tampa Bay for three.  Unfortunately, this will probably be Boston’s version of the postseason.  Fortunately, Boston’s probably not all that good right now and it may not matter.

I realize we feel like the Yankees should be in the postseason every year given their payroll, but it’s kind of fun to have meaningful games in September, isn’t it?  Living and dying on every pitch for a month is an emotional roller coaster but that’s part of the entertainment factor of baseball, and one we don’t necessarily get enough of as Yankee fans who usually are watching their team set up their postseason rotation over the last few weeks of the year.  It’s like an extended version of the postseason.

It also might be a good reminder that just getting into the postseason is a pretty good accomplishment in and of itself and the season’s not a failure if the Yankees don’t win the World Series.  Despite what Randy Levine will surely say at the end of the year if they don’t.

--Posted at 8:19 am by SG / 35 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Yankees.com: Dead Team Walking

ST. PETERSBURG—The Rays crushed three homers to power their way to a 5-2 win over the Yankees at Tropicana Field on Tuesday, clinching a series win and in the process pulling within 1 1/2 games of the American League East-leading Yankees.

New York now shares the division’s top spot with the Baltimore Orioles, who routed Toronto, 12-0, earlier in the evening.

The playoffs effectively started tonight.  The Yankees pissed away their 10 game division lead and have lost sole possession of first place in the AL East for the first time in 84 games.  So now they have to outplay Baltimore and Tampa Bay over the rest of the season if they want to take the division, something they haven’t been able to do since the All Star Break.

--Posted at 9:12 pm by SG / 31 Comments | - (0)




Friday, August 31, 2012

NJ.com: Carig: Yankees face Orioles in crucial series with first place in sight for Baltimore

However, sometimes numbers fail to project reality, and the status quo is rendered meaningless. Which is why as the Orioles arrive today for a three-game series, the Yankees find themselves faced with an unsettling reality.

Their lead in the American League East — which once stood at a seemingly insurmountable 10 games — has been whittled down to just three.

Inconceivable as it may have seemed just a month ago, an Orioles sweep this weekend would give them a share of first place with the Yankees, who have spent the last several weeks leaking oil.

The Orioles are really pissing Pythagoras off.  The Yankees can help soothe him by winning two or three of the games in this series.  Your pitching match ups for this series:

Friday, August 31
Miguel Gonzalez, RHP (5-3, 3.66 ERA) vs. Hiroki Kuroda, RHP (12-9, 2.98 ERA)

Saturday, September 1
Wei-Yin Chen, LHP (12-7, 3.78 ERA) vs. Freddy Garcia, RHP (7-5, 4.90 ERA)

Sunday, September 2
To Be Announced Chris Tillman, RHP (7-2, 3.26 ERA) vs. David Phelps, RHP (3-4, 2.96 ERA)

Not digging that Saturday match up much, and to be announced is never an easy pitcher to face so tonight’s game seems pretty freaking important.  Plus winning tonight would guarantee that the Yankees would still be in first place on Monday, and that would be cool.

Update The postseason odds implications of this series are below.

Now W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 93 69 794 674 87.5% 5.5% 4.2% 97.1%
Rays 88 74 695 607 9.4% 23.5% 27.1% 60.0%
Orioles 86 76 689 754 3.1% 6.8% 14.0% 24.0%
Red Sox 77 85 801 760 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 74 88 745 777 0.0% - - -
Orioles 3 - 0 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 91 71 794 674 70.5% 10.6% 7.4% 88.4%
Rays 88 74 695 607 15.6% 16.4% 21.5% 53.4%
Orioles 88 74 689 754 13.9% 13.8% 21.7% 49.3%
Red Sox 77 85 801 760 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 74 88 745 777 0.0% - - -
Orioles 2 -1 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 92 70 794 674 81.7% 8.4% 4.5% 94.6%
Rays 88 74 695 607 12.8% 18.4% 24.8% 55.9%
Orioles 87 75 689 754 5.5% 11.9% 18.6% 36.0%
Red Sox 77 85 801 760 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0%
Blue Jays 74 88 745 777 0.0% - - -
Yankees 2-1 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 93 69 794 674 88.4% 5.6% 3.0% 96.9%
Rays 88 74 695 607 10.4% 22.7% 27.5% 60.6%
Orioles 86 76 689 754 1.2% 7.8% 14.2% 23.3%
Red Sox 77 85 801 760 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 74 88 745 777 0.0% - - -
Yankees 3-0 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 94 68 794 674 92.9% 4.4% 2.0% 99.3%
Rays 88 74 695 607 6.2% 24.1% 29.8% 60.1%
Orioles 85 77 689 754 0.8% 5.9% 12.1% 18.9%
Red Sox 77 85 801 760 0.0% - 0.1% 0.1%
Blue Jays 74 88 745 777 0.0% - - -

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

--Posted at 9:58 am by SG / 28 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, August 30, 2012

NY Times: Looking for Cushion Before Tough Stretch, Yankees Have a Hard Fall

As the Yankees head into an important 10-game stretch, it would have served them well to wrap up their final game against the last-place Toronto Blue Jays with a series-winning victory. Then they could have moved on to more significant matters, like playing their divisional rivals, with a clear conscience.

Instead they were sloppy and ineffective, allowing the scrappy Blue Jays to leave town with an 8-5 victory Wednesday afternoon and a series win. The Yankees made three errors, handed back leads, dropped balls and surrendered 12 hits in a game that should make Yankees fans shudder about their prospects against the Baltimore Orioles and the Tampa Bay Rays.

With no game scheduled Thursday, the Yankees will have a full day to ruminate over one of their worst performances of the year.

Yesterday’s game was rough, and I’m seriously thinking this team will blow their division lead now.  To lose to this version of Toronto, at home, in a game started by CC Sabathia and J.A. Happ?  The Blue Jays came into this series having lost seven straight games and then won two out of three.  The Cleveland Indians have won one of their last 14 games.  Guess who they got the lone win against?

We’re waiting for Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixiera to come back from injury to save the team while ignoring the fact that we’ve been cursing them all year for their less than inspired performance. 

What makes it especially frustrating is that there doesn’t appear to be any clear great teams in baseball.  Texas’s injuries in the rotation make them appear slightly more vulnerable than they were.  I don’t think anyone fears the Tigers or White Sox much.  The Rays can pitch, but their offense isn’t the stuff of nightmares, and Baltimore seems like a classic case of overachieving.  The whole National League is underwhelming, unless you think re-creating the 2011 Red Sox makes the Dodgers better than the 1927 Yankees.

We probably don’t have to wait until the end of September to see if the Yankees will lose the division.  They can make or break their season over the next 10 games.  Hopefully they start it off by taking the upcoming home series vs. Baltimore before they go on the road for 10 games (3 at Tampa Bay, 4 at Baltimore, and 3 against Boston).

 

--Posted at 5:55 am by SG / 71 Comments | - (0)




Friday, August 24, 2012

NYDN: Yankees may need dominant final run to best AL East rivals

With six games remaining against the Rays and seven against the Orioles — all 13 of those games coming during a 17-day stretch beginning Aug. 31 — the Yankees will have every opportunity to control their own destiny.

“We play everyone,” Derek Jeter said. “It’s going to be tough, but all the teams that are close to us, we play. If we win, we win.”

The Rays have been the hottest team in baseball, entering Thursday 18-6 since July 28 to trim their deficit in the AL East from 9½ games to three.

While it’s true that the division will likely be decided mostly by how the Yankees, Rays and Orioles play against each other over the final stretch of the season, here’s how the three teams’ schedules compare.

Orioles xW Rays xW Yankees xW
3 vs Blue Jays 1.47 2 vs Athletics 1.14 3 @ Indians 1.90
4 vs White Sox 1.77 3 @ Rangers 1.41 3 vs Blue Jays 1.85
3 @ Yankees 1.06 4 @ Blue Jays 2.22 3 vs Orioles 1.94
3 @ Blue Jays 1.35 3 vs Yankees 1.50 3 @ Rays 1.50
4 vs Yankees 1.57 3 vs Rangers 1.53 4 @ Orioles 2.43
3 vs Rays 1.24 3 @ Orioles 1.76 3 @ Red Sox 1.57
3 @ Athletics 1.26 3 @ Yankees 1.38 3 vs Rays 1.62
3 @ Mariners 1.33 4 vs Red Sox 2.18 3 vs Blue Jays 1.85
3 @ Red Sox 1.19 3 vs Blue Jays 1.79 3 vs Athletics 1.77
3 vs Blue Jays 1.47 2 @ Red Sox 1.01 3 @ Twins 1.89
3 vs Red Sox 1.31 4 @ White Sox 2.04 4 @ Blue Jays 2.31
3 @ Rays 1.12 3 vs Orioles 1.88 3 vs Red Sox 1.69

xW are expected wins for each series using Bill James’s Log 5 methodology accounting for home field advantage.  According to that, the Orioles should win about 16 of their remaining games, the Rays should win about 20 and the Yankees should win about 22.  If we remove the games against each other, the schedules look like this.

Orioles xW Rays xW Yankees xW
3 vs Blue Jays 1.47 2 vs Athletics 1.14 3 @ Indians 1.90
4 vs White Sox 1.77 3 @ Rangers 1.41 3 vs Blue Jays 1.85
3 @ Blue Jays 1.35 4 @ Blue Jays 2.22 3 @ Red Sox 1.57
3 @ Athletics 1.26 3 vs Rangers 1.53 3 vs Blue Jays 1.85
3 @ Mariners 1.33 4 vs Red Sox 2.18 3 vs Athletics 1.77
3 @ Red Sox 1.19 3 vs Blue Jays 1.79 3 @ Twins 1.89
3 vs Blue Jays 1.47 2 @ Red Sox 1.01 4 @ Blue Jays 2.31
3 vs Red Sox 1.31 4 @ White Sox 2.04 3 vs Red Sox 1.69
11.14 13.31 14.83

The most difficult part of the Orioles’ schedule over the rest of the season is probably those four games against the White Sox and the three games in Oakland.  They also have 9 games left vs. Toronto, who should be better with this weekend’s expected returns of Jose Bautista and Brandon Morrow.

The Rays probably have the most difficult remaining schedule of the three teams with six games against Texas and four games at Chicago. 

In theory, the Yankees have the benefit of playing the slumping Indians and Twins three times apiece and have 10 games left against Toronto, although that’s likely to be less of an advantage with Bautista back and Morrow probably starting three of those games. 

The common thorn in the ass for all three teams is the six games they have against Boston.  As much as the Red Sox have underwhelmed this season, they’ll surely relish the chance to play spoiler for someone.

On paper, the Yankees have the easiest schedule of the three teams, but it probably won’t matter much if they don’t play well against Baltimore and Tampa Bay.

--Posted at 8:03 am by SG / 33 Comments | - (0)




Monday, August 13, 2012

Crunch Time

The Yankees will open up a seven game home stand tonight against Texas in the first of a four game series.  They follow that up with three games against Boston before hitting the road for three games against the White Sox.  That will end a brutal stretch where they’ve played 20 straight days.

Their lead in the AL East is down to 5 games over Tampa Bay and 5.5 games over Baltimore.  Tampa Bay will play three games at Seattle followed up by four games at Anaheim.  Then they’ll host the Royals for three games over that same stretch.

All due respect to the Orioles, I don’t consider them the threat that Tampa Bay is so I’m not including them here. 

Given the comparative schedules of the Yankees and Rays I’d expect the Yankees to lose some more ground over this stretch.  What I don’t know is how much is a reasonable expectation.  But we can estimate it using log 5 expectations for both teams.

I’d estimate that the Yankees as presently constituted (minus CC and A-Rod) are about an 88 win team and the Rays are about an 89 win team.  So here is how their schedules compare through August 22.

Date Game YxW Game RxW
8/13/2012 Rangers@Yankees 0.51 Rays@Mariners 0.52
8/14/2012 Rangers@Yankees 0.51 Rays@Mariners 0.52
8/15/2012 Rangers@Yankees 0.51 Rays@Mariners 0.52
8/16/2012 Rangers@Yankees 0.51 Rays@Angels 0.42
8/17/2012 Red Sox@Yankees 0.54 Rays@Angels 0.42
8/18/2012 Red Sox@Yankees 0.54 Rays@Angels 0.42
8/19/2012 Red Sox@Yankees 0.54 Rays@Angels 0.42
8/20/2012 Yankees@White Sox 0.47 Royals@Rays 0.67
8/21/2012 Yankees@White Sox 0.47 Royals@Rays 0.67
8/22/2012 Yankees@White Sox 0.47 Royals@Rays 0.67
Total 5.09 5.29

YxW: Yankees’ expected wins
RxW: Rays’ expected wins

It turns out that those four games for the Rays in Anaheim make the gap between the two teams’ schedules smaller than I thought.  We should probably expect the Yankees to go 5-5 over the next 10 games, so hopefully the Rays won’t do much better than that.  The Yankees will play the Rays six times in September, and that has the potential to determine the outcome of the AL East, so it behooves the Yankees to maintain as much separation from them as they can.

For whatever it’s worth, excluding their games against each other, the Rays probably have the tougher schedule from August 23 on.  Their opponents have a collective estimated winning precentage of about .515 while the Yankees’ opponents have one of .485.  So the Yankees are theoretically still in a pretty good position for taking the division.  Whether or not they’ll take advantage of that is a bigger question.

 

--Posted at 9:28 am by SG / 34 Comments | - (0)




Friday, July 27, 2012

The Postseason Implications of this series with Boston

We’re down to a mere 12 remaining games against Boston this year, with three of those slated for this weekend in the first road series at DNYS for Boston.  How we’ve gotten to four days from August with Boston making their first trip to the Bronx I don’t really understand, but here we are.  So we’ll pick this up from the the last time I ran these.

Anyway, the Yankees had a chance at really hurting Boston’s somewhat slim division title chances over this past week as the Red Sox have lost 5 of their last seven.  If that sounds familiar, it should because it’s exactly what the Yankees did over the same time period.  So no ground gained, which is annoying, but better than the alternative.

The Yankees can’t eliminate Boston this weekend, but they can make it pretty close to impossible for the Red Sox to catch them.  Here’s how the AL East’s postseason odds stand as of this morning.  The overall odds for all the teams are actually a bit lower than this but I removed the variance from the simulations to focus on the impact of the series, so keep that in mind.

TM W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 95.1 66.9 93.0% 3.5% 2.0% 98.5%
Rays 82.2 79.8 2.0% 8.5% 13.7% 24.2%
Red Sox 81.3 80.7 2.0% 5.8% 10.3% 18.1%
Blue Jays 80.3 81.8 2.0% 4.0% 5.3% 11.3%
Orioles 77.3 84.7 0.0% 1.5% 1.0% 2.5%

Here’s how those change based the possible outcomes of this three game set.

Red Sox 3-0 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 93.1 68.9 94.5% 1.5% 1.0% 97.0%
Red Sox 82.6 79.4 1.5% 10.8% 17.7% 30.0%
Rays 81.2 80.8 0.5% 6.8% 14.2% 21.5%
Blue Jays 79.3 82.7 1.5% 6.8% 4.7% 13.0%
Orioles 76.3 85.7 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0%
Red Sox 2-1 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 95.3 66.7 96.0% 1.0% 0.5% 97.5%
Rays 83.0 79.1 0.0% 9.0% 11.5% 20.5%
Red Sox 82.7 79.3 1.0% 6.8% 14.5% 22.3%
Blue Jays 80.2 81.8 2.0% 1.3% 5.5% 8.8%
Orioles 79.0 83.0 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 4.5%
Yankees 2 -1 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 95.8 66.2 99.0% 0.0% 1.0% 100.0%
Rays 82.2 79.8 0.0% 6.3% 15.2% 21.5%
Red Sox 81.2 80.8 0.0% 3.5% 8.3% 11.8%
Blue Jays 80.0 82.0 0.0% 2.0% 6.8% 8.8%
Orioles 77.5 84.5 0.0% 0.5% 4.0% 4.5%
Yankees 3 -0 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 97.3 64.8 99.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Rays 83.1 78.9 1.0% 10.8% 17.3% 29.1%
Red Sox 81.1 80.9 0.0% 4.5% 7.8% 12.3%
Blue Jays 80.1 81.9 0.0% 2.5% 7.5% 10.0%
Orioles 78.1 83.9 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0%

Like I said, once you return variability to the simulations the Yankees odds of making the postseason in the last two scenarios isn’t really 100.0%.  But it’s pretty damn high.

Your pitching matchups for the weekend are:

Friday, July 27, 7:05 PM ET
Aaron Cook vs. Phil Hughes

Saturday, July 28, 4:05 PM ET
Jon Lester vs. CC Sabathia

Sunday, July 29, 8:05 PM ET
Felix Doubront vs. Hiroki Kuroda

Those seem like pretty favorable matchups for the Yankees overall.  Aaron Cook’s been pretty effective despite racking up strikeouts with the frequency of a Yankee hit with RISP, and every Hughes start in DNYS has the potential for setting a record for HRs allowed by a pitcher, so that game seems like the one with the highest variablity.  I think the Yankees can probably split the next two games at the very least, so tonight’s game is the key I think.

Missing Alex Rodriguez for this series stinks, but at least Boston is still missing David Ortiz.  I’d lay 50/50 odds that Eric Chavez will be healthy by the end of this series, assuming Jayson Nix gets the starts on Saturday and Sunday with lefties going.

I really, really, really would love a sweep, because with the way the Yankees played on the West Coast they owe it to us.  But taking two out of three would also suffice.

--Posted at 8:36 am by SG / 31 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, July 17, 2012

CBS NY: Yankees’ Gardner Suffers Third Setback; CC Set To Return

NEW YORK (WFAN/AP) — CC Sabathia found the whole experience of his first trip to the disabled list with the Yankees a little “embarrassing,” and he is looking forward to making his first start in more than two weeks.

Brett Gardner might have to wait even longer to return from an elbow injury.

Sabathia will make his first start since June 24 on Tuesday night against Toronto. Out with a groin strain, he says he’s feeling well enough to pitch as long as he needs to and thinks the time off might have been more beneficial to his left arm than the groin.
...
Gardner was sore a day after he had four at-bats in a three-inning simulated game and was being kept off the field Monday. The speedy outfielder has already had two setbacks in his recovery from a strained elbow that has sidelined him since April 18.

At this point, Gardner may do the unthinkable and break Damaso Marte’s record for setbacks in a season.  Are we comfortable with a platoon of Andruw Jones/Raul Ibanez and DeWayne Wise on defense for the rest of the year?  Jones has a .339 wOBA vs. RHP this year and Ibanez has a .338 wOBA vs. LHP.  The average AL LF has a wOBA of .331, so assuming that Jones and Ibanez can keep up what they’ve done the Yankees would be slightly better than average on offense although they probably give away some of that on defense.  They can use Wise in spots where defense can be leveraged more optimally I guess.

It seems like a seller’s market right now with so many teams still having a reasonable chance at the second wild card, so I don’t know who’s available and what the price will be.  Here are how I have each teams’ odds of qualifying for the postseason as of this morning.

TM PS%
Yankees 93.2%
Rangers 92.2%
Nationals 83.0%
Reds 78.7%
Braves 71.5%
Giants 61.8%
White Sox 60.7%
Angels 59.3%
Cardinals 58.8%
Pirates 46.6%
Tigers 45.8%
Red Sox 43.2%
Dodgers 32.9%
Rays 32.0%
Indians 27.9%
Diamondbacks 25.0%
Mets 20.2%
Athletics 19.2%
Blue Jays 17.4%
Brewers 11.5%
Orioles 6.3%
Marlins 4.6%
Phillies 4.1%
Royals 1.8%
Rockies 1.0%
Mariners 0.8%
Twins 0.3%
Cubs 0.3%
Padres 0.3%
Astros -

I’d probably say any team under 20% should be a seller, but they may feel differently.  So who may be available from those teams, and what would they cost?

--Posted at 8:24 am by SG / 31 Comments | - (0)




Monday, June 4, 2012

2012 MLB Projected Standings and Postseason Odds through June 3

It’s been a while since I last ran these, so here’s how things look as of this morning.  Team projections are based about 2/3 on their average pre-season projection from here and 1/3 on YTD performance in component runs scored and allowed, with some adjustments for roster changes and injuries.

Date 6/4/2012
Iterations 1000000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Yankees 90 72 811 705 35.5% 16.8% 13.6% 65.9% -4.6 -25 -7
Rays 89 73 740 667 30.4% 18.0% 14.1% 62.5% 0.0 -25 -16
Red Sox 86 76 836 750 21.2% 15.1% 14.2% 50.4% -4.1 7 16
Blue Jays 82 80 776 755 9.1% 8.5% 10.9% 28.5% 0.4 2 -20
Orioles 78 84 711 782 3.8% 4.6% 6.9% 15.3% 7.9 -1 -37
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
White Sox 85 77 731 735 43.4% 4.1% 5.5% 53.0% 9.0 24 -37
Indians 81 81 749 763 24.3% 3.6% 5.4% 33.3% -0.9 -18 11
Tigers 81 81 756 738 23.5% 3.1% 5.1% 31.7% -4.7 -28 2
Royals 74 88 685 747 7.6% 1.0% 2.1% 10.6% -0.5 -20 -18
Twins 66 96 701 837 1.3% 0.1% 0.3% 1.7% -5.6 -29 15
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 97 65 840 690 80.3% 6.5% 4.0% 90.8% 5.7 33 -12
Angels 85 77 700 639 16.8% 15.2% 12.6% 44.7% -5.0 -42 -22
Mariners 74 88 680 721 1.9% 2.4% 3.8% 8.1% -0.2 -2 -20
Athletics 71 91 645 713 1.0% 0.8% 1.6% 3.5% -5.0 -62 -43
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Nationals 88 74 659 614 29.3% 12.0% 10.8% 52.1% 3.8 -24 -42
Braves 87 75 730 681 25.0% 11.2% 10.7% 47.0% -0.6 16 15
Marlins 85 77 689 667 19.8% 10.2% 10.3% 40.3% 1.6 -18 -14
Phillies 85 77 693 640 18.4% 10.4% 10.5% 39.3% -4.2 -5 11
Mets 80 82 694 747 7.6% 5.2% 6.8% 19.6% 6.5 11 -6
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Reds 91 71 701 643 50.0% 11.7% 8.1% 69.8% 3.8 -14 -17
Cardinals 89 73 758 676 35.7% 13.0% 9.7% 58.4% 2.0 27 -2
Brewers 80 82 701 699 8.3% 4.8% 6.0% 19.1% -4.7 2 34
Pirates 77 85 611 693 4.9% 2.9% 4.3% 12.0% 5.3 -57 -59
Astros 69 93 630 745 0.8% 0.4% 0.8% 2.0% 5.7 25 -11
Cubs 65 97 630 744 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% -6.1 -26 -6
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Giants 87 75 660 638 39.4% 6.1% 6.4% 51.8% 2.5 -12 -10
Dodgers 87 75 659 659 38.3% 6.2% 6.8% 51.3% 11.6 18 -31
Diamondbacks 80 82 681 683 13.9% 3.5% 4.9% 22.4% -3.7 -12 10
Rockies 77 85 784 782 7.9% 2.2% 3.5% 13.6% -5.5 37 52
Padres 65 97 604 694 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% -10.6 -43 5

W: Projected final 2012 wins
L: Projected final 2012 losses
RS: Projected final 2012 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2012 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: 2012 revised projected wins minus 2012 pre-season projected wins
RS+/-: 2012 revised projected runs scored minus 2012 pre-season projected runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2012 revised projected runs allowed minus 2012 pre-season projected runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

The Yankees have regained their rightful place at the top of the division, although they can lose that tomorrow pretty easily.  They’re projecting to end the year almost five wins worse than they originally projected to, but at least so far no one aside from Texas in the AL looks like they’re likely to be much better.

The biggest surprise for me here is the White Sox, who are nine games ahead of their pre-season projections and now have a greater than 50% chance at their division.  There is little evidence of luck in their component stats, so they haven’t gotten lucky in terms of wins vs. actual performance so far this year.  Whether it will continue is the question, but no one else in their division looks all that great so why not? 

I am getting way too much schadenfreude out of the Phillies now projecting to fourth and Cliff Lee having 0 wins despite a 3.00 ERA.  Good choice Cliff!  THe Nationals now hold a slight edge over the Braves in a pretty balanced division from top to bottom.

The Reds have passed St. Louis in the NL Central, which currently looks like a two team race.  The Cubs and Padres are probably duking it out for worst team in baseball, which should please Twins and Astros fans.

The Dodgers are still the biggest overall gainer vs. pre-season projections although now it appears they’ll be neck and neck with San Francisco for the NL West. 

There are still four months left, so a lot of this can/will change.  So consider it more of a checkpoint than a prediction.

--Posted at 7:29 am by SG / 47 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, April 25, 2012

2012 MLB Starting Pitching Through April 24

TeamIPTBFRAERAFIPxFIPBB/BFK/BF
Nationals104.74012.151.722.032.855.5%24.2%
Cardinals112.04392.732.573.063.425.7%17.8%
Rangers120.74972.832.763.253.907.6%19.1%
Pirates86.73543.012.83.103.867.3%14.7%
Phillies117.34733.142.843.173.205.3%20.1%
White Sox110.74423.173.093.423.637.9%23.8%
Athletics122.04953.322.953.634.196.1%13.3%
Marlins100.34143.503.413.303.516.5%18.4%
Giants107.74393.593.513.663.806.8%19.6%
Dodgers104.74353.613.013.633.809.4%21.8%
Rays107.34533.773.444.164.319.9%16.1%
Blue Jays109.74434.023.785.454.329.3%13.5%
Tigers95.34064.253.873.293.436.2%21.4%
Reds106.04484.423.993.924.236.5%14.3%
Angels106.04404.504.334.243.405.9%20.2%
Mariners107.74544.514.433.623.885.9%18.3%
Mets96.34184.583.923.623.257.7%20.8%
Indians84.03674.614.184.194.319.0%13.9%
Astros108.34664.654.244.144.028.2%16.7%
Diamondbacks108.04564.754.334.173.687.5%18.4%
Cubs106.04554.754.253.423.638.8%21.8%
Braves101.74304.784.163.803.999.1%19.3%
Brewers102.74414.914.823.913.607.0%21.8%
Padres104.04454.934.153.923.8511.0%19.8%
Orioles100.34335.024.224.334.159.5%18.7%
Royals88.03865.324.814.114.4911.7%16.8%
Rockies88.33905.404.894.964.839.5%12.6%
Red Sox94.34135.725.634.924.229.9%17.9%
Yankees96.34276.175.514.353.446.1%21.1%
Twins95.04237.016.735.504.386.9%13.0%

FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
xFIP: Expected fielding-independent pitching

Twins pitching vs. the Yankees: 2-2, 6.09 RA
Twins pitching vs. the rest of the league: 3-11, 5.88 RA

Remember how the Yankees’ starting pitching was supposed to be a strength?  Now they’re hoping a 40 year old who hasn’t pitched in a year can ride in and save the day.

CC should be fine.  I think Nova’s a good bet for continued success thanks to the big improvement in his peripherals.  Whether that makes him a 2 or a 3 I don’t know, but it’s probably safer to think he’s a 3.  Kuroda will also be ok I think, but I don’t think he’s a 2 in the AL.  It’d be nice if Phil Hughes wasn’t awful, because with Michael Pineda looking less and less likely to pitch this year Andy Pettitte could in theory fill one hole between Hughes and Freddy Garcia, but he can’t fill two.  My guess is Garcia’s start on Saturday will be his last for this turn in the rotation.

Despite what they’ve shown to date I’d bet a reasonable amount of money the Yankees will not remain the second worst starting rotation in MLB by the end of the year.  I think they have a chance to crack the top 20.

--Posted at 9:51 am by SG / 21 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, April 24, 2012

2012 MLB Offenses through April 23

TmR/GBR/G
NYY6.066.18
TEX5.765.83
ATL5.474.71
CLE5.295.08
TOR5.124.65
BOS5.075.18
STL4.945.15
COL4.804.91
TBR4.754.57
HOU4.474.33
CHW4.444.45
SFG4.444.49
LAD4.414.34
DET4.383.85
ARI4.294.22
MIL4.294.14
BAL4.254.27
LgAvg4.204.24
LAA4.194.02
MIA3.804.01
MIN3.714.04
CHC3.653.01
WSN3.623.87
KCR3.564.20
SDP3.533.41
SEA3.532.96
NYM3.504.12
CIN3.313.36
OAK2.893.09
PHI2.823.13
PIT2.001.87

R/G: Runs scored per game
BR/G: Linear weights batting runs per game

Yes, I realize posting this means the Yankees will not score for the next week.

 

--Posted at 7:52 am by SG / 38 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, April 22, 2012

How have the first two weeks of the 2012 MLB season changed team projections?

We’re roughly about 10% of the way throught the 2012 regular season, which is a pretty small sample size to make sweeping observations about how good or bad teams are.  That doesn’t mean that what’s happened to this point isn’t important, because it is.  I wanted to see what teams have seen the biggest shifts in their outlooks based on how they projected coming into the year compared what they have done since.

The way I looked at this involves three basic steps.

1) Get 2012 projections.  In this case I’m using the average of the 2012 MLB projection blowout that I ran at the beginning of April.
2) Estimate revised team strength.  For now, this is just a basic weighted average of the team’s projections heading into the year and their Pythagenpat performance to this point.  I’m not making any adjustments for injuries/roster changes/etc., yet,  although as we get deeper into the season I’ll probably do that.
3) Run the rest of the 2012 MLB season through my Monte Carlo simulator and see what happens.  This includes a variable that alters team strength in each iteration to account for things that projections can’t account for.

Here’s what it says.

Date 4/22/2012
Iterations 100000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Yankees 94 68 848 718 49.0% 14.1% 24.0% 87.1% -0.8 12 7
Rays 87 75 764 695 23.9% 15.0% 34.6% 73.5% -2.0 -1 12
Red Sox 83 79 828 765 13.9% 11.2% 28.1% 53.1% -7.6 -2 32
Blue Jays 81 81 780 775 11.6% 7.8% 21.4% 40.9% -0.5 6 0
Orioles 70 92 712 812 1.6% 1.9% 6.2% 9.7% 0.1 -1 -6
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Tigers 88 74 780 730 46.6% 6.1% 17.7% 70.4% 2.9 -4 -6
Indians 86 76 779 758 33.4% 8.2% 22.3% 63.9% 3.6 12 7
White Sox 78 84 706 755 11.2% 4.4% 12.9% 28.5% 1.6 -1 -18
Royals 70 92 697 771 4.5% 0.8% 5.6% 10.9% -4.8 -8 6
Twins 70 92 720 824 4.2% 0.9% 3.7% 8.8% -1.6 -11 3
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 99 63 822 679 78.2% 7.4% 8.0% 93.6% 8.4 15 -24
Angels 85 77 738 667 17.0% 16.4% 28.9% 62.3% -5.1 -3 6
Mariners 73 89 672 734 2.8% 3.2% 7.8% 13.8% -1.5 -10 -7
Athletics 72 90 687 739 2.0% 2.8% 9.0% 13.8% -4.1 -20 -17
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Braves 90 72 734 664 32.5% 11.3% 23.7% 67.5% 2.3 20 -2
Phillies 88 74 677 611 25.9% 12.4% 21.6% 59.9% -1.4 -21 -17
Nationals 88 74 674 639 27.5% 10.4% 24.4% 62.3% 3.8 -8 -17
Marlins 82 80 699 672 11.3% 8.4% 18.2% 37.9% -1.8 -8 -9
Mets 74 88 677 749 2.8% 3.0% 8.5% 14.3% 0.2 -6 -3
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Cardinals 94 68 740 662 53.9% 10.5% 16.8% 81.1% 7.2 9 -17
Brewers 86 76 700 677 21.2% 9.5% 19.0% 49.7% 1.2 1 13
Reds 84 78 699 665 18.7% 9.6% 21.5% 49.7% -2.9 -16 5
Pirates 73 89 639 726 3.3% 1.8% 6.2% 11.3% 1.5 -29 -26
Cubs 68 94 652 757 1.8% 1.6% 2.8% 6.2% -3.2 -4 7
Astros 66 96 607 747 1.2% 0.3% 1.2% 2.7% 1.9 3 -8
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Giants 85 77 672 649 29.6% 5.3% 14.9% 49.8% 0.6 0 2
Dodgers 83 79 649 674 22.7% 5.3% 11.1% 39.1% 8.1 8 -17
Diamondbacks 83 79 687 677 22.8% 4.3% 14.1% 41.2% -1.3 -6 3
Rockies 81 81 751 744 20.1% 4.9% 12.6% 37.6% -1.2 3 13
Padres 72 90 638 690 4.8% 1.4% 5.1% 11.3% -3.5 -9 2

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: 2012 revised projected wins minus 2012 pre-season projected wins
RS+/-: 2012 revised projected runs scored minus 2012 pre-season projected runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2012 revised projected runs allowed minus 2012 pre-season projected runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Good thing for Cliff Lee he signed with the young upstart Phillies instead of the old decrepit Yankees.  And remember how the Rangers and Angels looked to be neck and neck heading into the year?  Yeah.  The Dodgers seem to have snuck their way into the division race now, but other than that the division standings look pretty similar to how they did entering the season.

And here’s a chart that shows the changes in revised team wins projections for each team.

TM W+/-
Rangers 8.4
Dodgers 8.1
Cardinals 7.2
Nationals 3.8
Indians 3.6
Tigers 2.9
Braves 2.3
Astros 1.9
White Sox 1.6
Pirates 1.5
Brewers 1.2
Giants 0.6
Mets 0.2
Orioles 0.1
Blue Jays -0.5
Yankees -0.8
Rockies -1.2
Diamondbacks -1.3
Phillies -1.4
Mariners -1.5
Twins -1.6
Marlins -1.8
Rays -2.0
Reds -2.9
Cubs -3.2
Padres -3.5
Athletics -4.1
Royals -4.8
Angels -5.1
Red Sox -7.6

The Rangers have been destroying the competition and look like they’re probably the best team in baseball.  The Dodgers and Cardinals are the biggest positive surprises in the National League so far.  The Angels are the biggest disappointment in the AL.

But the Red Sox have to be the most pleasant surprise in baseball for me.

--Posted at 9:17 am by SG / 62 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, April 12, 2012

Sliding 101 with Eduardo Nunez


--Posted at 1:23 pm by Jonathan / 15 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Ivan Nova’s Curveball

Ivan Nova Curveballs
PZone%Chase%Miss%
2011 Season58941.3%26.0%26.6%
4/9/20122360.9%55.6%45.5%

Ivan Nova's curveball was really working last night. In two strike counts, he threw the pitch ten times, resulting in no hits and five strikeouts. Of those five strikeouts, four came on curveballs located out of the zone. I'd like to think that he was able to set that up by locating his curve in the strike zone throughout the game. If batters were aware that Nova was willing to throw the pitch in the zone, they were probably more likely to hack at it in two strike counts.

The two hits he gave up on curves were both located inside the strike zone: a double by Wieters in the 4th on a 2-1 pitch with the bases empty, and a single by Adam Jones in the 6th on an 0-1 pitch with the bases empty.

The one backwards K Nova recorded with his curveball last night came in the bottom of the seventh against Robert Andino. That must be why he was so testy after the game....

--Posted at 9:10 am by Jonathan / 71 Comments | - (0)




Monday, April 9, 2012

Yankees.com: Jeter’s four hits set up Yankees’ first win

BALTIMORE—Derek Jeter had four hits and Andruw Jones homered to support Ivan Nova’s effort as the Yankees posted their first victory of the season on Monday, defeating the Orioles, 6-2, at Camden Yards.

Hoping to avoid their first 0-4 start since 1973, the Yankees rode seven solid innings from Nova, who outpitched Baltimore counterpart Brian Matusz and washed away the remnants of an unsuccessful spring.

I generally look at three numbers after every Nova start.  Runs, walks and strikeouts.  When he allows two runs, walks none and strikes out seven, I’m seeing the evidence I need to see to think that Nova’s improvement over the last season or so is legitimate and sustainable.  He hit 96 mph and had great breaking stuff tonight, and threw the best game a Yankee starter has thrown this year. 

--Posted at 9:15 pm by SG / 31 Comments | - (0)



CBS Sports: MLB Preview: New York at Baltimore

Perhaps the only thing more surprising than how well the Baltimore Orioles have played this season is how poorly the New York Yankees have looked.

The Orioles will try to open 4-0 for the second consecutive season and send the Yankees to their first 0-4 start in 39 years Monday night in the opener of a three-game series at Camden Yards.

While ending a run of 14 straight losing seasons would be considered a very successful campaign for Baltimore, the Yankees are again expected to compete for a championship.

Tm PA R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
BAL 102 15 25 3 1 5 2 0 10 12 .275 .353 .495 .847
NYY 119 12 21 5 1 2 1 0 18 16 .212 .336 .343 .680
Tm W L ERA IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO
BAL 3 0 1.00 27 15 5 3 1 8 0 16
NYY 0 3 5.92 24.1 29 18 16 5 16 4 28
Tm Pos CH PM AvgPM Diff RS
Bal 1B 6 5 5 0 0
Bal 2B 12 10 10 0 0
Bal 3B 10 8 8 0 0
Bal CF 4 4 4 0 0
Bal LF 4 4 4 0 0
Bal RF 6 5 5 0 0
Bal SS 9 9 8 1 1
Bal Total 51 45 43 2 2
NYY 1B 2 2 2 0 0
NYY 2B 6 3 4 -1 -1
NYY 3B 10 7 7 0 0
NYY CF 10 6 8 -2 -2
NYY LF 3 2 3 -1 -1
NYY RF 9 7 8 -1 -1
NYY SS 8 4 6 -2 -2
NYY Total 48 31 38 -7 -7

CH: Fieldable chances in Zone Rating
PM: Plays made (CH converted into outs)
AvgPM: PM by average defender over same # of chances
Diff: PM minus AvgPM
RS: Runs saved compared to average (Diff times run value at position of a play made)

--Posted at 8:44 am by SG / 111 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, April 3, 2012

CAIRO 2012 v1.0 and Final Pre-season MLB Standings Projection

I’ve uploaded the final pre-season 2012 CAIRO projections and projected standings.  They can be downloaded here.

cairo_2012_v1.0.zip

Yeah, I know Opening Day was technically last week.  Sue me.

Here are the standings and of course, the pie charts.  I should be posting more projected standings from other systems later today, so I’ll save the disclaimers and explanations for after that’s all done.

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL East NYA 96 66 848 713 52.8% 19.6% 11.1% 83.5% 86 - 106
AL East BOS 91 71 857 751 23.7% 21.0% 16.1% 60.8% 81 - 101
AL East TAM 91 71 765 667 22.4% 25.7% 14.9% 63.0% 81 - 101
AL East TOR 79 83 771 793 0.8% 2.4% 3.1% 6.2% 69 - 89
AL East BAL 70 92 736 838 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 60 - 80
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL Central DET 87 75 803 741 55.2% 1.3% 10.3% 66.8% 77 - 97
AL Central CLE 84 78 759 721 36.4% 2.4% 9.3% 48.0% 74 - 94
AL Central CHA 74 88 699 806 3.0% 0.2% 0.8% 4.0% 64 - 84
AL Central KC 73 89 682 754 3.6% 0.2% 0.8% 4.6% 63 - 83
AL Central MIN 71 91 725 815 1.8% 0.0% 0.3% 2.1% 61 - 81
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL West TEX 93 69 809 685 54.2% 12.7% 17.3% 84.1% 83 - 103
AL West LAA 92 70 739 640 44.7% 14.3% 14.6% 73.6% 82 - 102
AL West OAK 74 88 685 753 0.5% 0.3% 0.9% 1.7% 64 - 84
AL West SEA 73 89 669 742 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 1.2% 63 - 83
AL WC1 93
AL WC2 90
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL East PHI 91 71 690 610 51.0% 15.1% 9.0% 75.0% 81 - 101
NL East ATL 86 76 705 664 20.5% 16.4% 10.2% 47.1% 76 - 96
NL East WAS 85 77 669 632 17.7% 12.8% 9.7% 40.1% 75 - 95
NL East FLA 83 79 710 694 10.3% 8.6% 7.0% 25.9% 73 - 93
NL East NYN 74 88 665 737 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 2.2% 64 - 84
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL Central STL 89 73 728 654 47.2% 11.1% 9.4% 67.7% 79 - 99
NL Central MIL 86 76 695 646 29.2% 11.6% 11.8% 52.6% 76 - 96
NL Central CIN 85 77 707 670 22.7% 10.8% 11.2% 44.8% 75 - 95
NL Central PIT 71 91 653 743 0.6% 0.3% 1.0% 1.9% 61 - 81
NL Central CHN 71 91 648 748 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 61 - 81
NL Central HOU 61 101 584 752 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 51 - 71
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL West SF 85 77 663 634 36.5% 5.2% 10.2% 51.9% 75 - 95
NL West ARI 84 78 692 674 33.9% 3.0% 9.2% 46.0% 74 - 94
NL West COL 82 80 755 750 21.2% 2.9% 6.6% 30.7% 72 - 92
NL West SD 76 86 635 674 4.1% 0.9% 1.6% 6.6% 66 - 86
NL West LAN 75 87 622 671 4.3% 0.3% 2.5% 7.1% 65 - 85
NL WC1 90
NL WC2 88

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
PS%: Total percentage team qualified for the postseason (DIV + WC1 + WC2)
W 1 Std: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 7:45 am by SG / 34 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, February 7, 2012

CAIRO 2012 v0.5 and More Somewhat Useless Projected Standings

I’ve uploaded the latest version of the 2012 MLB CAIRO projections. They can be downloaded here.

The only changes from version 0.4 were moving players who were signed/traded to their new teams.  I think this will probably be the last release until right before Opening Day unless I find any issues.

I figured since I’ve updated again I’d run another set of projected standings so here is what they look like.

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL East NYA 97 65 844 692 54.3% 22.5% 8.0% 84.8%
AL East TAM 92 70 772 660 23.2% 27.4% 14.1% 64.8%
AL East BOS 92 70 862 745 22.1% 27.0% 15.3% 64.4%
AL East TOR 78 84 758 795 0.4% 1.2% 2.6% 4.1%
AL East BAL 70 92 734 847 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL Central DET 88 74 814 741 60.7% 1.6% 12.7% 75.0%
AL Central CLE 84 78 763 729 32.1% 0.8% 9.5% 42.4%
AL Central CHA 74 88 705 805 3.5% 0.2% 1.0% 4.7%
AL Central KC 74 88 687 762 3.3% 0.0% 0.8% 4.1%
AL Central MIN 67 95 720 861 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL West TEX 92 70 812 695 51.2% 8.6% 17.0% 76.8%
AL West LAA 91 71 741 653 47.0% 9.9% 16.6% 73.5%
AL West OAK 76 86 685 735 0.7% 0.6% 1.7% 2.9%
AL West SEA 74 88 673 729 1.2% 0.2% 1.0% 2.4%
AL WC1 94
AL WC2 91
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL East PHI 92 70 701 605 60.8% 12.4% 9.1% 82.2%
NL East WAS 86 76 676 625 18.6% 18.2% 9.1% 45.8%
NL East ATL 85 77 700 676 13.2% 12.5% 11.0% 36.7%
NL East FLA 82 80 708 699 7.3% 8.0% 7.1% 22.3%
NL East NYN 75 87 670 733 0.3% 1.2% 1.8% 3.2%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL Central STL 90 72 737 654 47.8% 12.4% 10.3% 70.5%
NL Central CIN 87 75 715 665 27.3% 11.6% 12.1% 51.0%
NL Central MIL 86 76 696 645 24.6% 12.3% 11.7% 48.6%
NL Central CHN 71 91 650 745 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
NL Central PIT 68 94 649 764 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4%
NL Central HOU 60 102 584 773 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL West SF 85 77 663 630 38.1% 3.1% 8.4% 49.5%
NL West ARI 84 78 659 634 33.5% 3.6% 8.9% 46.1%
NL West COL 81 81 761 759 18.3% 3.0% 6.6% 27.9%
NL West SD 76 86 633 668 5.2% 0.8% 2.2% 8.2%
NL West LAN 75 87 621 669 4.9% 0.7% 1.8% 7.3%
NL WC1 90
NL WC2 88

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card

These look more realistic to me than the last set I ran with Marcel.  Probably a bit high on the Yankees, but since CAIRO was created to make the Yankees look better than they are that stands to reason.

I am a bit surprised that Washington now projects better than Atlanta, even if it’s just a one game edge.  The only other major differences from this and the Marcel version is St. Louis at the top of the NL Central and San Francisco and Arizona above Colorado, both of which make sense to me.

Anyway, it’s still early, this is still not that useful, etc.,

--Posted at 9:58 am by SG / 43 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, January 28, 2012

Still Too Early 2012 MLB Standings Projection

Instead of running these with CAIRO this time I used Marcel, mainly out of curiosity in seeing what an unbiased projection that was not created to make the Yankees look better than they are would say.

It says this.

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL East NYA 92 70 785 682 45.3% 20.3% 10.4% 76.0%
AL East BOS 90 72 830 750 27.9% 26.1% 10.8% 64.8%
AL East TAM 88 74 717 646 23.7% 21.2% 12.2% 57.1%
AL East TOR 81 81 723 727 3.0% 6.9% 6.8% 16.7%
AL East BAL 70 92 694 806 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL Central DET 84 78 747 708 43.0% 2.4% 10.1% 55.4%
AL Central CLE 83 79 722 708 30.6% 2.9% 7.8% 41.3%
AL Central CHA 79 83 686 703 15.2% 1.5% 4.2% 20.9%
AL Central KC 79 83 691 714 10.8% 1.9% 4.1% 16.9%
AL Central MIN 68 94 693 813 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL West LAA 87 75 719 663 43.7% 6.1% 11.4% 61.2%
AL West TEX 87 75 765 707 38.2% 6.9% 13.4% 58.6%
AL West OAK 82 80 682 674 14.9% 3.1% 7.4% 25.3%
AL West SEA 76 86 649 689 3.2% 0.7% 1.6% 5.5%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL East PHI 90 72 689 615 44.8% 16.5% 10.7% 72.0%
NL East ATL 89 73 668 608 38.2% 19.2% 9.9% 67.3%
NL East WAS 83 79 645 634 10.8% 10.3% 8.1% 29.2%
NL East FLA 80 82 682 690 5.7% 5.2% 5.4% 16.3%
NL East NYN 74 88 630 680 0.6% 1.5% 1.2% 3.2%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL Central CIN 89 73 719 647 60.4% 8.4% 10.9% 79.7%
NL Central STL 84 78 708 681 24.6% 10.7% 7.0% 42.2%
NL Central MIL 81 81 678 672 13.1% 6.7% 7.7% 27.5%
NL Central PIT 72 90 657 732 1.6% 0.2% 1.0% 2.8%
NL Central CHN 70 92 668 761 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 1.0%
NL Central HOU 66 96 617 749 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL West COL 85 77 749 711 32.1% 6.4% 10.9% 49.4%
NL West ARI 85 77 685 656 30.8% 7.3% 10.8% 48.9%
NL West SF 85 77 629 606 29.6% 5.4% 11.3% 46.3%
NL West LAN 76 86 618 659 4.1% 1.5% 2.7% 8.2%
NL West SD 75 87 608 653 3.4% 0.6% 2.5% 6.4%

Div: Percent of time team won division
WC 1: Percent of time team won first wild card
WC 2: Percent of time team won second wild card

We still don’t know if there will be a second wild card yet, so you can chop off that column and subtract that percentage from the team’s over playoff percentage. 

Because Marcel regresses more heavily than other projections and because it assumes every one who hasn’t played in MLB projects as league average, you see a tighter spread here than you’ll see in other projected standings.  The standard deviation for team wins in my last CAIRO projections was about 9.  In this version it’s 7.1.  That may be more realistic if you think about how little we really know about how good/bad players and teams are, even though what will actually happen in 2012 will show a much bigger spread more in line with other projected standings.

Here are the average win totals for the placings in each division and for the two wild cards.

Div Place Avg W
AL East 1 96
AL East 2 91
AL East 3 86
AL East 4 80
AL East 5 69
Div Avg W
AL Central 1 89
AL Central 2 83
AL Central 3 79
AL Central 4 75
AL Central 5 67
Div Avg W
AL West 1 92
AL West 2 86
AL West 3 81
AL West 4 74
AL WC 1 91
AL WC2 88
Div Avg W
NL East 1 94
NL East 2 88
NL East 3 83
NL East 4 78
NL East 5 72
Div Avg W
NL Central 1 92
NL Central 2 85
NL Central 3 80
NL Central 4 74
NL Central 5 69
NL Central 6 63
Div Avg W
NL West 1 91
NL West 2 85
NL West 3 81
NL West 4 77
NL West 5 71
NL WC1 89
NL WC2 87

What this shows is that on average a team needed 96 wins to win the AL East, etc.,.

Some obvious things to consider would be:

- the difference between Yu Darvish (and other imports) and a league average pitcher
- prospects who project better than league average
- players who switched to parks that will affect their projections since Marcel does not park-adjust

Despite all that, the ordinal rankings seem reasonable.  The only differences between this and CAIRO in that regard are that I have St. Louis ahead of Cincinnati and the Diamondbacks and Giants ahead of Colorado.

This is current through Francisco Cordero signing with Toronto, and assumes Prince Fielder at 1B and Miguel Cabrera playing a terrible version of 3B for Detroit in 70% of their games, and DHing in 25% of them. 

--Posted at 8:19 am by SG / 25 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, December 13, 2011

CAIRO 2012 v0.3 and Some Extremely Early and Completely Useless 2012 Projected Standings

I’m releasing CAIRO 2012 v 0.3 today which mainly fixes a problem with a handful of pitchers like Alexi Ogando and Ross Ohlendorf and moves players to new teams where applicable.  I figure it’d be a good time to run some projected standings even though they are too early to be of any real value.

DISCLAIMER: This is very limited in telling us much about how 2012 will play out for a large number of reasons.

1) There are still a lot of roster changes coming.  This may give us some sense of how the offseason has impacted teams to this point and it also shows us how things might look if nothing changed from now until April.  Which won’t happen.

2) It’s too early to construct meaningful rosters for a lot of teams, so these projections will favor the teams that have essentially completed their 2012 rosters.

3) In addition to that, projection systems are inherently limited.  They are designed to estimate a player’s true talent based on what they’ve done so far and also by factoring in things like age and how similar players have performed in the past.  They will generally be in the ballpark for the general population of MLB players, but they can miss significantly on individual players which can obviously affect certain teams more heavily than others.

Anyway, using the depth charts from the wonderful MLB Depth Charts and includng playing time from players on the 40 man roster who don’t necessarily figure to be part of the the opening day 25 man rosters to account for organizational depth and playing out next season 100,000 times, here’s how CAIRO v0.3 sees things as of December 13, 2011.  These were run with Aramis Ramirez as a Brewer, but I didn’t remove any of the non-tendered players from yesterday from their rosters.

Date 12/13/2011
Iterations 100000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Yankees 94 68 862 740 59.0% 16.8% 75.9%
Red Sox 91 71 868 763 31.1% 26.1% 57.2%
Rays 85 77 717 654 9.5% 11.8% 21.4%
Blue Jays 75 87 773 817 0.3% 0.6% 0.9%
Orioles 68 94 741 853 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Tigers 89 73 780 703 54.3% 4.7% 59.0%
Indians 87 75 751 696 40.8% 5.9% 46.6%
White Sox 77 85 723 795 3.3% 1.5% 4.8%
Royals 73 89 684 760 1.6% 0.2% 1.8%
Twins 66 96 698 829 0.0% - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Rangers 93 69 812 697 58.0% 13.7% 71.6%
Angels 90 72 720 640 39.5% 16.6% 56.1%
Mariners 77 85 653 668 2.3% 2.0% 4.2%
Athletics 71 91 636 686 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Phillies 92 70 681 598 60.6% 10.5% 71.1%
Braves 87 75 711 662 24.9% 13.8% 38.7%
Marlins 81 81 716 695 8.2% 4.4% 12.6%
Nationals 80 82 665 668 4.9% 3.2% 8.1%
Mets 76 86 669 710 1.4% 1.6% 3.0%
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Brewers 92 70 700 646 52.5% 14.3% 66.7%
Cardinals 90 72 708 648 36.8% 19.3% 56.2%
Reds 84 78 724 704 10.1% 10.8% 20.9%
Cubs 74 88 649 727 0.3% 1.1% 1.4%
Pirates 70 92 656 758 0.4% - 0.4%
Astros 60 102 569 759 0.0% - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Giants 88 74 656 613 46.3% 6.4% 52.7%
Diamondbacks 86 76 647 613 31.2% 6.4% 37.6%
Padres 81 81 620 613 11.3% 4.6% 15.9%
Dodgers 79 83 624 644 7.9% 2.9% 10.8%
Rockies 76 86 726 776 3.4% 0.6% 4.0%

The most shocking thing here is the Astros projecting to win 62 games IMO.  I also am amused by the fact that the Marlins don’t really project any better than the Nationals despite all their largesse this offseason.

Also, be aware that I haven’t accounted for the stupid new second wild card thing yet, since I am not certain that it will be implemented for this upcoming season, and rremember that this is more for fun than utility and take it in the appropriate spirit.

--Posted at 11:22 am by SG / 44 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, September 27, 2011

What are the AL Wild Card Odds as of Today

According to Baseball Prospectus, the Red Sox are still favored to win the wild card over the Rays, 55.1% to 44.9%.  This is based on assumed team strengths of .600 for the Yankees, .562 for the Red Sox, .528 for the Rays and .434 for the Orioles.

The first and most obvious problem here is assuming that a Yankee team that’s not playing for anything is going to be the equivalent of a 97 win team, particularly with them already announcing they won’t be pitching any pitchers that are going to be on the postseason roster in tomorrow’s game.  Similarly, we have enough information to look at all four teams and see how strong they really may be over the next two games to see if the odds change appreciably.

I’m going to use the format below when I start my postseason previews.  I’m using The Hardball Times’s Oliver forecasts, since I haven’t had time to re-run CAIRO for 2011.  These projections are the most up-to-date ones (updated weekly) and include 2011 MLEs, so I think they’re solid.  These were last updated on Monday.

First, here’s a rough stab at the teams I’d expect the Yankees and Rays to field over the next two days.

Name Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Jeter, Derek SS 5 .306/.363/.416 3 0.64 .345 .369 .337
Granderson, Curtis CF 5 .259/.342/.496 3 0.74 .358 .314 .374
Teixeira, Mark 1B 5 .265/.357/.498 3 0.75 .369 .380 .364
Rodriguez, Alex 3B 5 .289/.367/.527 3 0.80 .382 .389 .380
Cano, Robinson 2B 5 .312/.359/.511 3 0.77 .374 .358 .381
Swisher, Nick RF 5 .271/.364/.475 3 0.72 .364 .375 .359
Montero, Jesus DH 5 .278/.329/.483 3 0.67 .348 .361 .340
Martin, Russell C 5 .252/.345/.380 3 0.57 .326 .344 .320
Gardner, Brett LF 5 .269/.353/.376 3 0.62 .326 .306 .332
Starter Total 45 .278/.353/.463 29 6.28 .355 .355 .354
Bench Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Posada, Jorge DH 5 .259/.345/.448 3 0.66 .347 .347 .347
Jones, Andruw OF 4 .251/.344/.502 3 0.60 .363 .381 .357
Nunez, Eduardo IF 5 .278/.308/.381 3 0.51 .301 .302 .300
Chavez, Eric 3B 4 .245/.296/.355 3 0.38 .288 .257 .300
Romine, Austin C 4 .246/.289/.364 3 0.38 .287 .300 .283
Dickerson, Chris OF 4 .239/.315/.341 3 0.40 .295 .272 .299
Pena, Ramiro IF 4 .239/.283/.327 3 0.32 .269 .256 .273
Cervelli, Francisco C 0 .263/.314/.365 0 0.00 .298 .310 .293
Bench Total 30 .252/.312/.389 21 3.24 .308 .304 .309
Team Total 75 .268/.337/.433 50 9.52 .336 .335 .336


Outs: Outs at the plate (assumes 25 outs per 9 innings, calculated as (1 - OBP) times PA + GDP per PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
vs. L/R: Projected wOBA splits vs. LHP/RHP using regressed platoon splits

Name Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Jennings, Desmond LF 8 .266/.334/.415 5 1.01 .328 .340 .321
Upton, B.J. CF 8 .235/.328/.402 5 0.98 .323 .339 .316
Longoria, Evan 3B 8 .268/.365/.510 5 1.26 .376 .393 .369
Zobrist, Ben 2B 8 .261/.358/.437 5 1.09 .349 .357 .345
Damon, Johnny DH 8 .272/.343/.430 5 1.05 .339 .322 .346
Joyce, Matt RF 8 .263/.349/.463 5 1.12 .352 .319 .357
Kotchman, Casey 1B 8 .271/.335/.395 5 0.91 .324 .300 .331
Jaso, John C 4 .247/.329/.357 3 0.41 .309 .286 .313
Rodriguez, Sean SS 4 .237/.315/.402 3 0.45 .314 .332 .304
Starter Total 64 .260/.342/.429 42 8.29 .338 .335 .337
Bench Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Ruggiano, Justin OF 1 .250/.301/.395 1 0.11 .304 .312 .297
Shoppach, Kelly C 4 .208/.303/.379 3 0.41 .302 .323 .292
Johnson, Elliot IF 0 .247/.286/.384 0 0.00 .286 .292 .280
Fuld, Sam OF 1 .250/.322/.357 1 0.10 .304 .284 .310
Guyer, Brandon OF 1 .281/.325/.444 1 0.13 .330 .338 .315
Canzler, Russ IF 0 .263/.328/.450 0 0.00 .337 .371 .303
Lobaton, Jose C 0 .241/.316/.365 0 0.00 .303 .301 .304
Brignac, Reid SS 4 .235/.276/.336 3 0.31 .269 .246 .274
Bench Total 11 .233/.297/.368 8 1.06 .293 .292 .289
Team Total 75 .256/.335/.420 50 9.35 .331 .329 .330


Even at less than full strength, the Yankees probably have the better offense on the field.

For the pitching, it’s a bit trickier but I’ll take a shot anyway.

Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Sabathia, CC SP1 0 0 3.70 3.43 3.28
Colon, Bartolo SP2 5 3 4.82 4.04 3.97
Nova, Ivan SP3 0 0 4.77 4.36 4.33
Garcia, Freddy SP4 0 0 4.60 4.36 4.33
Burnett, A.J. SP5 0 0 5.21 4.82 4.49
Hughes, Phil SP6 0 0 4.45 4.12 4.17
Betances, Dellin SP7 4 2 5.36 4.96 4.83
Brackman, Andrew SP8 0 0 6.80 6.30 5.88
Starter Total 9 5 5.06 4.45 4.35
Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Rivera, Mariano CL 1 0 3.03 2.81 2.89
Robertson, David SU 1 0 3.75 3.47 3.05
Soriano, Rafael SU 1 0 3.61 3.34 3.64
Logan, Boone SU 1 0 4.32 4.00 3.77
Wade, Cory MR 1 0 4.38 4.06 4.09
Ayala, Luis MR 1 1 4.50 4.17 3.92
Noesi, Hector MR 0 0 4.59 4.25 4.03
Proctor, Scott LR 1 1 5.78 5.35 5.21
Laffey, Aaron LR 1 1 5.56 5.15 4.59
Kontos, George LR 1 1 5.38 4.98 5.02
Reliever Total 9 4 4.48 4.15 4.02
Team Total 18 10 4.77 4.30 4.19


RA: Runs allowed per 9, calculated as 1.08*ERA
ERA: Earned runs allowed per 9
FIP: Fielding independent pitching

Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Price, David SP1 7 3 3.84 3.41 3.50
Shields, James SP2 0 0 4.03 3.70 3.68
Hellickson, Jeremy SP3 7 3 3.85 3.55 3.97
Niemann, Jeff SP4 0 0 4.11 3.95 4.11
Davis, Wade SP5 0 0 4.61 4.34 4.51
Moore, Matt SP6 0 0 4.57 4.23 4.10
SP7 0
SP8 0
Starter Total 14 6 3.84 3.48 3.74
Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Farnsworth, Kyle CL 1 0 3.53 3.27 3.23
Peralta, Joel SU 1 0 3.35 3.10 3.50
Howell, J.P. SU 1 1 4.64 4.30 4.08
Cruz, Juan SU 1 1 4.75 4.40 4.40
McGee, Jake MR 0 0 4.56 4.22 4.03
Gomes, Brandon MR 0 0 4.21 3.90 3.71
Ramos, Cesar MR 0 0 5.18 4.80 4.43
De La Rosa, Dane LR 0 0 5.03 4.66 4.40
Sonnanstine, Andy LR 0 0 5.43 5.03 4.88
Reliever Total 4 2 4.07 3.77 3.80
Team Total 18 8 3.89 3.54 3.75


Obviously the assumption here is 18 innings over two games.  I don’t know if the Yankees would actually start Dellin Betances tomorrow, but I’m not sure who else they’d consider and the difference over four projected innings is minimal.

I am not going to bother with defense here, since it’s mostly covered in the pitching projections and trying to tease out two games of defense is more likely to be counter-productive than tell us anything useful.

How about the Red Sox and Orioles?

Name Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Ellsbury, Jacoby CF 8 .306/.349/.482 5 1.20 .357 .341 .363
Crawford, Carl LF 8 .286/.327/.443 5 1.05 .333 .304 .345
Pedroia, Dustin 2B 8 .290/.362/.454 5 1.13 .355 .370 .349
Ortiz, David DH 8 .286/.367/.548 5 1.32 .390 .354 .405
Gonzalez, Adrian 1B 8 .327/.412/.588 5 1.51 .426 .389 .443
Lowrie, Jed 3B 8 .259/.316/.409 5 0.91 .316 .341 .303
Drew, J.D. RF 8 .263/.346/.454 5 1.06 .349 .319 .359
Saltalamacchia, Jarrod C 8 .235/.290/.416 6 0.86 .305 .285 .316
Scutaro, Marco SS 8 .281/.347/.394 5 0.96 .328 .361 .295
Starter Total 72 .281/.346/.465 47 10.00 .351 .340 .353
Bench Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Aviles, Mike IF 0 .268/.296/.413 0 0.00 .305 .319 .298
Varitek, Jason C 0 .234/.303/.434 0 0.00 .317 .332 .311
Jackson, Conor OF 2 .250/.324/.364 1 0.21 .309 .325 .302
Aviles, Mike IF 0 .268/.296/.413 0 0.00 .305 .319 .298
McDonald, Darnell OF 0 .269/.316/.449 0 0.00 .326 .339 .310
Gathright, Joey OF 0 .239/.291/.311 0 0.00 .269 .255 .272
Lavarnway, Ryan C 2 .255/.332/.467 1 0.27 .345 .358 .338
Drew, J.D. OF 0 .263/.346/.454 0 0.00 .349 .319 .359
Bench Total 4 .252/.328/.415 3 0.48 .327 .342 .320
Team Total 76 .280/.345/.462 50 10.48 .350 .340 .351

Name Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Angle, Matt LF 8 .250/.309/.313 6 0.72 .280 .224 .336
Hardy, J.J. SS 8 .260/.305/.430 6 0.93 .317 .335 .311
Markakis, Nick RF 8 .288/.352/.419 5 1.02 .341 .318 .351
Guerrero, Vladimir DH 8 .295/.329/.460 5 1.03 .341 .356 .336
Wieters, Matt C 8 .261/.324/.414 5 0.93 .324 .327 .323
Jones, Adam CF 8 .282/.318/.457 5 1.00 .333 .336 .332
Reynolds, Mark 1B 8 .236/.332/.521 5 1.21 .362 .383 .355
Davis, Chris 3B 8 .271/.321/.476 5 1.08 .341 .318 .350
Andino, Robert 2B 8 .254/.297/.361 6 0.75 .289 .303 .283
Starter Total 72 .267/.321/.428 49 8.67 .325 .322 .331
Bench Pos PA AVG/OBP/SLG Outs BR wOBA vs. L vs. R
Tatum, Craig C 0 .219/.276/.292 0 0.00 .256 .268 .252
Fox, Jake C 0 .265/.323/.476 0 0.00 .343 .349 .339
Adams, Ryan 3B 0 .258/.307/.385 0 0.00 .305 .336 .275
Bell, Josh IF 0 .239/.290/.407 0 0.00 .303 .308 .301
Hudson, Kyle IF 0 .226/.282/.263 0 0.00 .250 .230 .252
Reimold, Nolan OF 1 .255/.334/.437 1 0.13 .337 .349 .330
Florimon Jr., Pedro OF 0 .224/.278/.329 0 0.00 .268 .268 .268
Bench Total 1 #N/A 1 0.13 .337 .349 .330
Team Total 73 #N/A 50 8.80 .325 .323 .331

Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Beckett, Josh SP1 0 0 3.76 3.51 3.85
Lester, Jon SP2 7 3 3.63 3.43 3.45
Bedard, Erik SP3 5 2 4.02 3.62 3.59
Lackey, John SP4 0 0 4.89 4.51 4.14
Wakefield, Tim SP5 0 0 4.93 4.61 5.27
Miller, Andrew SP6 0 0 6.40 5.58 5.01
Weiland, Kyle SP7 0 0 5.56 5.15 4.97
Buchholz, Clay SP8 0 0 4.02 3.59 4.14
Starter Total 12 5 3.79 3.51 3.51
Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Papelbon, Jonathan CL 2 1 3.29 3.05 2.93
Bard, Daniel SU 2 1 3.37 3.12 3.51
Wheeler, Dan SU 1 0 3.96 3.67 4.11
Albers, Matt SU 0 0 4.59 4.25 3.97
Morales, Franklin MR 0 0 4.88 4.52 4.75
Atchison, Scott MR 0 0 3.81 3.53 3.57
Doubront, Felix MR 0 0 5.35 4.95 4.67
Aceves, Alfredo LR 1 0 4.00 3.70 4.02
Bowden, Michael LR 0 0 4.97 4.60 4.79
Buchholz, Clay LR 0 0 3.88 3.59 4.14
Tazawa, Junichi LR 6 2 3.55 3.29 3.50
Team Total 18 7 3.71 3.43 3.51

Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Britton, Zach SP1 5 2 4.44 4.11 4.04
Simon, Alfredo SP2 5 3 5.13 4.60 4.48
Matusz, Brian SP3 0 0 4.96 4.69 4.59
Hunter, Tommy SP4 0 0 4.60 4.38 4.48
Vandenhurk, Rick SP5 0 0 5.64 5.09 5.38
Guthrie, Jeremy SP6 0 0 4.39 4.14 4.41
SP7 0
SP8 0
Starter Total 10 5 4.78 4.36 4.26
Name Role IP R RA ERA FIP
Johnson, Jim CL 1 0 3.93 3.64 3.65
Gregg, Kevin SU 1 1 4.76 4.41 4.35
Patton, Troy SU 1 1 5.18 4.80 4.72
Bergesen, Brad SU 1 1 4.91 4.55 4.57
Accardo, Jeremy MR 1 1 4.78 4.43 4.18
Berken, Jason MR 1 1 5.28 4.89 4.40
Eyre, Willie MR 1 1 4.70 4.35 4.25
Rapada, Clay LR 1 0 4.44 4.11 3.76
Reyes, Jo-Jo LR 0 0 5.72 5.30 4.92
Strop, Pedro LR 0 0 4.59 4.25 3.90
Reliever Total 8 4 4.75 4.40 4.23
Team Total 18 10 4.77 4.37 4.25


Yeah, yeah, yeah, so what does all this nerdy crap mean?

It means this.

Team Gms RS RA wpct
NYA 2 9.5 9.5 .499
BOS 2 10.5 7.4 .656
TB 2 9.4 7.8 .584
BAL 2 8.8 9.5 .471

And if we use those numbers adjusted for home-field advantage to play out the last two games of the season, here’s what I get for the wild card odds.

Rays: 50.9%
Red Sox: 49.1%

Should be interesting.

--Posted at 4:50 pm by SG / 12 Comments | - (0)




Monday, September 26, 2011

Yankees.com: Cano’s bat can’t carry Yanks alone in St. Pete

As the Yankees attempt to balance resting their regulars with serving their roles as spoilers in the American League Wild Card race, manager Joe Girardi fielded a lineup that produced mixed results.

Robinson Cano homered and notched a run-scoring single against Tampa Bay starter James Shields, who otherwise gave the Rays everything they needed. Pending the result of Boston’s game at Baltimore, the Rays’ win pulled them within a half-game of the Red Sox with two games remaining.

Best loss ever.

Pending the result of this?

Red Sox fall into WC tie as O’s barrel back

BALTIMORE—Two games left, and it’s all tied up. That is the reality the Red Sox now face as their once secure grip in the American League Wild Card standings has slipped away entirely.

This, after an 6-3 loss on Monday at Camden Yards to the 68-92 Orioles, a team that has beaten the Red Sox in four out of five meetings over the last week.

If the Red Sox don’t reverse that in the next two games, they could be going home earlier than anyone thought. The resilient Rays have come all the way back and have the same 89-71 record as Boston after beating the Yankees, 5-2, at Tropicana Field on Monday.

It was the continuation an almost surreal turn of events over the last few weeks for the Red Sox, who have gone 6-19 in September, losing nine games in the standings over that time.

Back on Aug. 17, Boston had a lead of 10 games in the AL Wild Card. Now, the Sox have two games—and perhaps a one-game playoff on Thursday—to avoid being the first team to blow a double-digit Wild Card lead since that format started in 1994.

--Posted at 9:30 pm by SG / 58 Comments | - (0)




Monday, September 5, 2011

Monte Carlo Standings and Postseason Odds Through September 4, 2011

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Yankees 99 63 870 657 63.0% 36.7% 99.7%
Red Sox 98 64 860 694 36.9% 62.3% 99.3%
Rays 87 75 705 630 0.1% 0.9% 1.0%
Blue Jays 79 83 745 749 - - -
Orioles 64 98 694 841 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Tigers 89 73 740 724 94.2% - 94.2%
White Sox 82 80 672 681 4.0% - 4.0%
Indians 80 82 688 720 1.9% - 1.9%
Twins 71 91 662 791 - - -
Royals 67 95 706 782 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Rangers 91 71 815 696 92.1% 0.0% 92.1%
Angels 86 76 666 650 7.9% 0.0% 7.9%
Athletics 75 87 654 668 - - -
Mariners 69 93 574 678 - - -
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Phillies 103 59 736 555 98.0% 2.0% 100.0%
Braves 94 68 678 605 2.0% 95.4% 97.4%
Mets 80 82 723 733 - 0.0% 0.0%
Nationals 75 87 632 688 - - -
Marlins 73 89 647 717 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Brewers 95 67 723 659 98.7% 0.2% 98.9%
Cardinals 86 76 761 714 1.3% 2.1% 3.3%
Reds 81 81 751 711 - - -
Pirates 74 88 633 706 - - -
Cubs 70 92 664 768 - - -
Astros 56 106 610 787 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Diamondbacks 89 73 713 689 83.2% 0.1% 83.3%
Giants 85 77 575 585 15.9% 0.3% 16.2%
Dodgers 80 82 641 630 0.8% 0.0% 0.8%
Rockies 78 84 744 751 0.1% - 0.1%
Padres 71 91 614 637 - - -

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

Not looking like too much suspense aside from seeding at this point.

--Posted at 9:14 am by SG / 10 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, September 4, 2011

Yankees.com: Backed by homers, CC earns 19th win

NEW YORK—If CC Sabathia felt the effects of a 128-pitch, six-inning outing Tuesday night in Boston, he didn’t show it Sunday.

The left-hander pitched 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball to bag his 19th win of the season as the Yankees downed the Blue Jays, 7-3, to complete a three-game sweep in the Bronx. Sabathia struck out 10, walked one and threw 111 pitches. He retired 13 of the final 14 batters to face him.

Derek Jeter hit his fifth homer of the season—and the second since he reached 3,000 career hits with a long ball—to give the Yankees and their ace some early breathing room. The three-run shot to left field against Toronto left-hander Brett Cecil landed in the same area as the famous July 9 home run and extended the Yankees’ lead from 1-0 to 4-0.

I was wondering how Sabathia would look after a pretty tough start on Tuesday, and the answer was great.

And thank God we have Rafael Soriano to pitch innings that only eighth inning guys could pitch.  If the Yankees hadn’t dropped $36M on Soriano they may have won this one 9-2 instead of 9-3.  But I digress.

The sweep is nice, but if they’re going to sweep a pretty good Toronto team they damn well better sweep a crappy Orioles team.

--Posted at 3:28 pm by SG / 34 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, August 25, 2011

TGS NY: Yanks, O’s watch hurricane

NEW YORK—Worried about Hurricane Irene possibly affecting games this weekend, the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles discussed playing a doubleheader Friday, but the Orioles said that isn’t going to happen.

The teams are currently scheduled to play five games from Friday to Monday, with a doubleheader on Saturday.

“Just business as usual and you hope for the best,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said following his team’s 22-9 win against Oakland. “Hopefully our game times don’t coincide with the hurricane but I’m not so sure how it’s not going to. Make the best of it, that’s all you can do.”

While the Friday forecast calls for partly cloudy conditions, according to weather.com, the hurricane is supposed to dump rain on Baltimore Saturday and Sunday, which could affect three of the five scheduled games.

A spokesperson for the Orioles said that the teams will not play a doubleheader Friday.

This could get ugly.  Nice to see the Orioles being considerate, but there’s a pretty good chance any further postponed games won’t need to be made up at all, so they’re really just spiting themselves.

--Posted at 10:19 pm by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, August 9, 2011

More on Run Differentials

Last week I looked at the Yankees’ run differential and made the point that actual runs scored and allowed can be a bit misleading, and that it’s probably more instructive to look at the context neutral value of the offensive events for and against a team to get a better sense of how good they have actually been.  For the hell of it I decided to look at this for all teams in MLB as of this morning.

Team RS RA bRS bRA RS - bRS RA - bRA Gap
Pirates 436 469 415 503 21 -34 55
Yankees 603 436 577 455 26 -19 45
Padres 431 438 413 448 18 -10 28
Reds 542 510 522 511 20 -1 21
Phillies 504 375 500 391 4 -16 20
Blue Jays 534 522 515 522 19 0 18
Braves 476 426 467 428 9 -2 11
Royals 505 551 509 566 -4 -15 11
Diamondbacks 516 502 499 493 17 9 9
Nationals 449 471 445 475 4 -4 7
Rays 485 452 481 453 4 -1 5
Angels 441 419 457 439 -16 -20 5
Cardinals 552 500 538 490 14 10 4
Indians 478 486 458 469 20 17 3
Rockies 528 536 519 529 9 7 2
Twins 449 559 420 532 29 27 2
Athletics 442 456 430 440 12 16 -5
White Sox 453 468 451 457 2 11 -9
Mets 518 507 525 504 -7 3 -10
Red Sox 625 479 628 472 -3 7 -11
Dodgers 418 456 429 454 -11 2 -13
Marlins 462 503 471 497 -9 6 -15
Mariners 376 439 362 409 14 30 -16
Rangers 589 490 582 466 7 24 -17
Brewers 512 486 508 462 4 24 -19
Astros 437 574 451 568 -14 6 -20
Orioles 462 598 473 586 -11 12 -23
Cubs 474 571 481 552 -7 19 -26
Giants 399 411 414 399 -15 12 -28
Tigers 508 514 512 484 -4 30 -35

RS/RA: Actual runs scored/allowed
bRS/bRA linear weights batting runs scored/allowed.
Gap: RS - bRS minus RA - bRA.  The larger the number, the more a team has outplayed their peripherals.  Basically, positive is bad here and negative is good.

What this table is saying is that, for example, the Yankees have scored about 26 more runs and allowed 19 fewer runs than their peripheral stats say they should have.  That doesn’t mean you should subtract 4.5 wins from their total on the season.  It just means that their Pythagenpat record/run differential is a bit misleading.  In the Yankees’ case they’ve got 73 Pythag wins and 69 actual wins, so they haven’t really taken advantage of this in actual wins. 

Contrast that with Pittsburgh, who’ve stumbled lately.  They were playing over their heads all year, and unfortunately the correction has been ugly.  At 55-59, they’re still two wins ahead of their 53-61 Pythag record, and if you look at that gap they are probably not even that good.

--Posted at 2:57 pm by SG / 9 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, June 2, 2011

A Brief Foray into Run Differentials and Component Stats

At this point in the season, the Yankees have the second best winning percentage in the AL.

Team a%
CLE .623
NYY .574
BOS .536
TEX .536
DET .527
TBR .527
SEA .509
LAA .500
TOR .500
OAK .474
CHW .466
BAL .463
KCR .455
MIN .315

Over a full season at the actual winning percentage the Yankees would be about a 93 win team, with Cleveland at 101.

Now of course over 1/3 of a season actual winning percentage can be misleading since teams might be winning or losing more games than their actual performance merits.  So you can look at something like Pythagenpat to get a better sense of how well a team has played so far and what it might mean going forward.

Team p%
NYY .629
CLE .582
TEX .563
TBR .543
TOR .542
BOS .540
LAA .506
OAK .496
DET .486
CHW .480
SEA .478
KCR .462
BAL .422
MIN .322


If you do that, the Yankees look more like a 102 win team, which would be eight wins better than Cleveland and 11 wins better than Boston.

Although Pythagenpat does a pretty good job of estimating a team’s level of play, their actual runs scored and runs allowed might be skewed due to better or worse than expected performances in high leverage situations that are not necessarily repeatable going forward.

You can use linear weights batting runs to account for that.  What’s nice about doing that is you can put offense and pitching/defense on the same scale if you use all the same components.

Team b%
NYY .599
TEX .568
BOS .562
CLE .559
TOR .533
TBR .526
OAK .526
LAA .524
DET .504
CHW .479
SEA .469
KCR .435
BAL .423
MIN .343

This method also shows that the Yankees have played better than any other team in the AL, and would have them at around 97 wins, five wins ahead of Cleveland and six games ahead of Boston.

We do need to be cognizant that how a team has played so far only tells us so much about how good they are now and how good they’ll be going forward.  Regression towards the mean, injuries/roster changes and a whole host of other things are going to have an impact on how a team does moving forward.

But at least as of right now, the Yankees have probably been the best team in the league and the difference isn’t trivial.

All this is moot when Rafael Soriano returns to blow games though.

--Posted at 6:20 pm by SG / 26 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, May 19, 2011

Heat Map: Bartolo Colon vs. Baltimore Orioles (5/18/11)


Bartolo Colon threw 87 pitches yesterday, and while he didn't get the win, he held the Orioles to 3 hits over 8 innings. He threw mostly fastballs (90.8%), a few sliders, and one changeup according to PitchFX data. His fastball averaged a -5.8 BrkX (horizontal movement from spin) reading and 8.5 BrkZ (vertical movement from spin) reading, both slightly better than league average. He yielded 10 ground balls, 5 line drives, and 4 fly balls, while striking out 7. And as you can see, he located his pitches extremely well, avoiding the middle of the plate while jamming lefties up and in. He also threw to the outside edge of the plate to righties and lefties, recording 5 of his strikeouts on pitches away, 4 of them looking.

All heat maps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform

--Posted at 3:37 pm by Jonathan / 5 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, April 7, 2011

The Implications of This Weekend’s Series with Boston

You may or may not have heard, but the best team in baseball history has gotten off to a rough start at 0-6.  It’s important to understand what that means in the big picture.  It’s too small of a sample size to meaningfully change our estimate of how good they are.  However, those games do count, and they do need to be factored into whatever we forecast Boston to do going forward.

If Boston was a 94-95 win team over 162 games at the start of the year, they’re probably still a 94-95 win team.  However, they only have 156 games left to play.  At the same winning percentage, they’re more like a 91 win team now.  Here’s a quick look at the average projections for the AL East at the start of the season according to the aggregate from the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout.

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Red Sox 94.4 67.6 817 687 42.1% 17.8% 59.8%
Yankees 92.4 69.6 812 707 32.8% 18.2% 51.0%
Rays 86.1 75.9 762 704 16.0% 13.4% 29.4%
Orioles 78.6 83.4 748 777 6.0% 6.5% 12.5%
Blue Jays 73.9 88.1 686 751 3.1% 3.2% 6.3%

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

It’s certainly possible that some of these projections were wrong from the start, but we don’t have enough information to know that yet.

Re-running that exercise taking into account what’s actually happened to this point gives us these revised results.

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Yankees 92.1 69.9 812 707 40.2% 16.4% 56.6%
Red Sox 91.1 70.9 817 687 36.5% 19.3% 55.8%
Rays 81.8 80.2 762 704 12.9% 9.5% 22.4%
Orioles 77.8 84.2 748 777 6.3% 6.9% 13.2%
Blue Jays 73.5 88.5 686 751 4.2% 3.5% 7.6%

So if everything played out as projected going forward (it won’t), the Yankees are now slight favorites in the AL East.  That was easy enough.

Using that as our new baseline, here are how those would look depending on the various potential results of the Yankees’ three game series in Fenway this weekend.

Boston Sweeps

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Red Sox 92.4 69.6 817 687 41.3% 18.2% 59.5%
Yankees 90.1 71.9 812 707 34.1% 16.9% 51.1%
Rays 83.0 79.0 762 704 14.0% 10.8% 24.8%
Orioles 78.3 83.7 748 777 7.8% 6.9% 14.7%
Blue Jays 73.0 89.1 686 751 2.8% 3.5% 6.3%

This is basically how things looked in the preseason, with Boston about two games better than the Yankees.

Boston wins 2 of 3

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Red Sox 91.4 70.6 817 687 37.3% 17.3% 54.6%
Yankees 91.3 70.7 812 707 35.9% 18.0% 53.9%
Rays 82.4 79.6 762 704 15.7% 11.5% 27.1%
Orioles 78.3 83.7 748 777 7.8% 7.8% 15.6%
Blue Jays 73.4 88.6 686 751 3.4% 3.3% 6.7%

For all intents and purposes that makes things a dead heat.

Yankees win 2 of 3

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Yankees 92.0 70.0 812 707 40.6% 18.6% 59.1%
Red Sox 90.6 71.4 817 687 35.9% 18.1% 53.9%
Rays 81.9 80.1 762 704 13.0% 9.4% 22.4%
Orioles 78.6 83.4 748 777 8.0% 7.7% 15.7%
Blue Jays 72.8 89.2 686 751 2.6% 3.7% 6.3%

While not my ideal scenario, I would approve of this outcome.

Yankees Sweep

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Yankees 93.9 68.1 812 707 47.2% 17.0% 64.2%
Red Sox 89.3 72.7 817 687 29.6% 16.8% 46.4%
Rays 82.3 79.7 762 704 13.4% 10.7% 24.1%
Orioles 77.7 84.3 748 777 6.5% 6.5% 13.0%
Blue Jays 73.1 88.9 686 751 3.3% 3.6% 6.9%

This is my preferred result.

These odds can swing pretty wildly after just a few games, so don’t take them too seriously.  This is particularly true in baseball where divisional rivals play each other so frequently.

Now obviously it’s really early in the season and we have no idea what will actually happen, but can you imagine the hysteria if the Yankees take all three games? 

Looking at the pitching matchups, the Yankees are probably underdogs in the first two games.

Friday, April 8
Phil “88 mph” Hughes vs. John “World Series Hero” Lackey

Saturday, April 9
Ivan Nova vs. Clay Buchholz

The good news is they should probably be slight favorites in the finale

Sunday, April 10
CC “Future Red Sock” Sabathia vs. Josh “Guardian of playing the game right” Beckett

So the most likely scenario is that the Red Sox take two of three, and really that’s fine with me.  I just don’t want to see the Yankees get swept.

--Posted at 6:00 pm by SG / 74 Comments | - (0)




Monday, April 4, 2011

2011 March/April Expectations

I was looking at the Yankees’ early season schedule and wanted to see what a reasonable expectation is for their performance over the next month.  So using the 2011 CAIRO projected team W/L records and Bill James’s log 5 expected win method, here’s how things look.

Date Game xW xL aW aL aW-xW cxW cxL caW caL caW-cxW
3/31/2011 vs Tigers .61 .39 1 0 .39 0.6 0.4 1.0 0.0 0.4
4/2/2011 vs Tigers .61 .39 1 0 .39 1.2 0.8 2.0 0.0 0.8
4/3/2011 vs Tigers .61 .39 0 1 -.61 1.8 1.2 2.0 1.0 0.2
4/4/2011 vs Twins .61 .39 2.4 1.6
4/5/2011 vs Twins .61 .39 3.0 2.0
4/6/2011 vs Twins .61 .39 3.6 2.4
4/7/2011 vs Twins .61 .39 4.2 2.8
4/8/2011 @ Red Sox .45 .55 4.7 3.3
4/9/2011 @ Red Sox .45 .55 5.1 3.9
4/10/2011 @ Red Sox .45 .55 5.6 4.4
4/12/2011 vs Orioles .64 .36 6.2 4.8
4/13/2011 vs Orioles .64 .36 6.9 5.1
4/14/2011 vs Orioles .64 .36 7.5 5.5
4/15/2011 vs Rangers .56 .44 8.1 5.9
4/16/2011 vs Rangers .56 .44 8.6 6.4
4/17/2011 vs Rangers .56 .44 9.2 6.8
4/19/2011 @ Blue Jays .57 .43 9.8 7.2
4/20/2011 @ Blue Jays .57 .43 10.3 7.7
4/22/2011 @ Orioles .56 .44 10.9 8.1
4/23/2011 @ Orioles .56 .44 11.5 8.5
4/24/2011 @ Orioles .56 .44 12.0 9.0
4/25/2011 vs White Sox .61 .39 12.6 9.4
4/26/2011 vs White Sox .61 .39 13.2 9.8
4/27/2011 vs White Sox .61 .39 13.8 10.2
4/28/2011 vs White Sox .61 .39 14.4 10.6
4/29/2011 vs Blue Jays .65 .35 15.1 10.9
4/30/2011 vs Blue Jays .65 .35 15.7 11.3


xW: Expected win probability
xL: Expected loss probability
aW: Actual win
aL: Actual loss
aW-xW: Actual win minus expected win.  Positive is good, negative is bad
cxW: Cumulative xW
cxL: Cumulative expected losses
caW: Cumulative actual wins
caL: Cumulative actual losses
caW-cxW: Cumulative actual wins minus cumulative expected wins

The key thing here is the home/road split.  The Yankees play 19 of their first 27 games at home, which is a big advantage.  Of course, that then means that at some point in the year they’re going to play a whole bunch of games on the road, which is a disadvantage.  The Yankees play 47 of their first 81 games at home(58%), which means the second half of the season has the potential to be rough.  So, if they want to leave April on a pace that would match their season-long expectations, they really need to go 16-11 or so.  Well, actually 14-10 since they took two of three from Detroit which puts them about 0.2 wins ahead of these expectations.

Since I know someone will ask, Boston has to play 15 of their first 27 games on the road.  In an eerie coincidence they have the exact same log5 expected record.  That’s because their games are against a somewhat weaker group of opponents.  If you sum the projected winning percentages of each team’s opponents on a game by game basis, the Yankees collective opponents have a winning percentage of about .508 and the Red Sox have an opponent winning percentage of .502.  It’s a difference of about a game over a month.  Since the Red Sox got swept in Texas, they’re currently about 1.5 games off their expectations and need to go something like 16-8 through the end of April to catch up.

If the aggregate results of the 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout were accurate, the Red Sox were projected as being about two games better than the Yankees.  Since the Yankees are now 0.2 wins ahead of where they projected to be and Boston’s 1.5 games behind where they’re projected to be, the two teams are essentially on equal footing now.  So it’ll be a dogfight for the wild card behind the surging Baltimore Orioles.

--Posted at 9:41 am by SG / 8 Comments | - (0)




Monday, January 31, 2011

Lohud: Jennings - Yankees reportedly out on Duchscherer

After an earlier report that the Orioles might be the favorite for Duchscherer, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports that Duchscherer has narrowed his options to Baltimore, Seattle and Washington.

This probably means the Yankees will push harder on Freddy Garcia, but I’d have preferred Duchscherer.  It’s kind of unlikely he’d have held up for a full season in the rotation, but who knows?

If Baltimore adds Vlad Guerrero, they’re going to be an interesting team.  Right now I have them projected as around a 77-78 win team, but Duscherer plus Vlad might push them to .500 or so.

--Posted at 1:33 pm by SG / 15 Comments | - (0)




Monday, January 24, 2011

Updated Still Too Early 2011 AL East Standings Projection

With the Rays signing Johnny Damon/Manny Ramirez and the Jays trading Vernon Wells for Mike Napoli/Juan Rivera I was curious to see how it may AL East projected standings from this post may have changed, and here it is.

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Red Sox 94.9 67.1 834 693 45.5% 16.3% 61.8%
Yankees 90.3 71.7 819 739 25.4% 17.4% 42.8%
Rays 88.1 73.9 736 663 19.8% 15.1% 34.9%
Blue Jays 77.9 84.1 721 738 5.6% 5.6% 11.2%
Orioles 75.5 86.5 732 796 3.8% 4.0% 7.8%

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

Things appear to be getting pretty tight.  This is going to make Boston beating out the 1927 Yankees as “best team of evah” particularly noteworthy.

--Posted at 9:50 am by SG / 17 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Extremely Early CAIRO 2011 MLB Projected Standings

Around this time every year I like to run projected standings for the upcoming MLB season.  It’s very limited in telling us much about how 2011 will play out since there are still a lot of roster changes coming, but it may give us some sense of how the offseason has impacted teams to this point and it also shows us how things would look if nothing changed from now until April.  Which won’t happen.

Since this point is not readily comprehensible for people of limited intelligence I’ll reiterate it. It’s too early to construct meaningful rosters for a lot of teams, so these projections will favor the teams that have essentially completed their 2011 rosters. 

In addition to that, projection systems are inherently limited.  They are designed to estimate a player’s true talent based on what they’ve done so far and also by factoring in things like age and how similar players have performed in the past.  They will generally be in the ballpark for the general population of MLB players, but they can miss significantly on individual players which can obviously affect certain teams more heavily than others.

So, anyway, using the depth charts from the wonderful MLB Depth Charts and includng playing time from players on the 40 man roster who don’t necessarily figure to be part of the the opening day 25 man rosters to account for organizational depth and playing out next season 10,000 times, here’s how CAIRO v0.3 sees things as of December 27, 2010.

Date 12/28/2010
Iterations 10000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 98.1 63.9 856 690 54.6% 15.6% 70.2% 9.1 38 -54
Yankees 89.1 72.9 835 740 23.2% 21.7% 44.9% -5.9 -24 47
Rays 87.1 74.9 707 640 17.9% 18.7% 36.6% -8.9 -95 -9
Blue Jays 74.1 87.9 693 737 2.6% 5.8% 8.4% -10.9 -62 9
Orioles 70.1 91.9 723 813 1.8% 2.9% 4.7% 4.1 110 28
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Twins 85.7 76.3 752 715 33.3% 6.2% 39.5% -8.3 -29 44
White Sox 84.5 77.5 735 711 28.4% 6.2% 34.5% -3.5 -17 7
Tigers 84.0 78.0 727 712 27.5% 4.6% 32.0% 3.0 -24 -31
Indians 73.9 88.1 728 802 8.2% 2.7% 10.8% 4.9 82 50
Royals 66.9 95.1 678 815 2.8% 1.1% 3.9% -0.1 2 -30
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 89.2 72.8 746 673 50.1% 4.5% 54.6% -0.8 -41 -14
Athletics 82.1 79.9 678 667 26.1% 4.3% 30.4% 1.1 15 41
Angels 77.9 84.1 665 690 15.5% 3.2% 18.7% -2.1 -16 -12
Mariners 72.2 89.8 635 703 8.4% 2.5% 10.9% 11.2 122 5
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 96.1 65.9 754 618 54.5% 11.0% 65.5% -0.9 -18 -22
Braves 88.5 73.5 754 690 26.6% 13.3% 39.9% -2.5 16 61
Mets 76.6 85.4 675 702 7.1% 4.5% 11.6% -2.4 19 50
Marlins 77.3 84.7 679 708 8.7% 5.0% 13.7% -2.7 -40 -9
Nationals 72.4 89.6 659 733 3.2% 2.0% 5.2% 13.4 -51 -141
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Cardinals 90.2 71.8 746 676 35.0% 12.0% 47.0% 4.2 10 35
Brewers 87.2 74.8 698 650 27.9% 8.9% 36.7% 10.2 -52 -154
Reds 85.5 76.5 723 689 23.5% 8.2% 31.7% -5.5 -67 4
Cubs 79.3 82.7 742 761 10.5% 6.3% 16.8% 4.3 57 -6
Pirates 67.7 94.3 671 808 2.1% 1.2% 3.3% -6.3 28 38
Astros 65.8 96.2 604 732 1.1% 1.0% 2.1% 3.8 -32 -36
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rockies 85.9 76.1 768 732 31.7% 5.9% 37.6% 2.9 -2 15
Giants 84.2 77.8 699 667 24.1% 6.6% 30.6% -7.8 2 84
Dodgers 83.3 78.7 677 659 20.3% 7.2% 27.5% 3.3 10 -33
Padres 81.2 80.8 647 652 17.7% 5.0% 22.6% -8.8 -18 71
Diamondbacks 73.8 88.2 690 757 6.4% 1.9% 8.3% 3.8 -30 -25

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

The only reason I am showing wins and losses to one decimal place is so I don’t have to answer questions about why the wins and losses don’t add up to exactly 2430.  There is no way to imply that something like this can be precise to that level.

Did I mention that it’s still too early to do this, and that it shouldn’t be taken seriously?

I guess it’s not exactly news that Boston and Philadelphia look to be the two best teams in baseball right now.  Although it’s easy for lazy analysts to make the claim that Tampa Bay is going to be bad because they lost Carl Crawford and their whole bullpen, it’s just not true.  They’ve won the AL East in two of the past three seasons, and they have a ton of pitching talent in the minors.  Jake McGee looks like a potentially dominant closer.  They also won 96 games last year despite getting very little production out of first base and DH.  Losing Crawford hurts, but Desmond Jennings is another good prospect who has a chance to mitigate that a bit as well.

Toronto tends to project worse than they actually end up doing every year, mainly because they’ve always seemed to get better than expected pitching.  They’ve lost John Buck and Shaun Marcum from last year’s team, and CAIRO is expecting Jose Bautista will not hit 54 HRs again which explains most of their drop.

The Orioles tend to project better than they actually end up doing every year, but perhaps they’ll Buck that trend in 2011.

As for our Yankees, they’re still a good team.  They’re just not as good as Boston on paper right now.  That doesn’t mean they can’t win the division, it just means that they need some players to exceed their projections (A.J.?) and/or some players from Boston/Tampa Bay to underperform some of their’s.  If they can add Andy Pettitte or some league average starter who can give them 180 innings or so that’s probably worth another two wins over Ivan Nova/Sergio Mitre.

Right now the AL Central looks pretty tightly bunched at the top between the White Sox, Tigers and Twins.  Cleveland should be able to hold off KC for fourth place, although if Melky-mania runs wild who knows?

The West looks like Texas’s to lose, even without Cliff “The Big Train” Lee. LA of A could pick up about three wins if they sign Adrian Beltre, but that alone doesn’t seem like it’d be enough to get them up to Texas’s level.

I don’t know if the Phillies are as good as Boston, although they may be a better short series team.  They are almost certainly the tallest midget in the circus known as the National League, but they’re not some 110 win juggernaut on paper.  The Braves seem to be the second best team in the NL East and should at least be a strong contender for the wild card.

The Cardinals still appear to have the best front-line talent in the NL Central although Milwaukee has improved themselves significantly.  The Reds are not far off from the top either.

The NL West is also tightly bunched at the top, with only about four wins separating first place through fourth.

Did I mention that it’s too early for this to be taken too seriously?

--Posted at 10:00 am by SG / 134 Comments | - (0)




Friday, September 17, 2010

Yankees.com: A-Rod’s blasts carry Yanks to top of AL East

 

--Posted at 10:25 pm by Jonathan / 37 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Finishing Off The Road Trip(Baltimore Edition)

It started in Oakland the moved on to Anaheim and now the Yankee’s road trip finishes up with a three game set against the struggling Baltimore Orioles.

The pitching matchups for the series are:

Tuesday, April 27
Phil Hughes vs. Kevin Millwood

Wednesday, April 28
CC Sabathia vs. Jeremy Guthrie

Thursday, April 29
A.J. Burnett vs. Brian Matusz

Coming into 2010, the Orioles projected to be on an upswing.  In fact, one projection system had them pegged for 79 wins.  On average, they were projected to win about 74 games. 

However, by starting the season 3-16, they now look like they’d end the season at about 65 wins even if they play to their pre-season projections for the rest of the year.

Offense has been a problem for Baltimore, if you look at how they rank in the AL through yesterday’s games.

Rank team lg PA H 2B 3B HR R RBI BB SO HBP GDP SB CS AVG OBP SLG wOBA BR
1 Yankees AL 699 159 31 7 22 96 90 87 111 10 14 19 5 .265 .366 .450 .359 101.0
2 Tigers AL 799 195 54 3 14 96 86 92 136 8 18 6 5 .280 .369 .426 .354 109.1
3 Twins AL 762 176 38 4 20 101 95 96 106 4 23 11 1 .270 .362 .433 .350 105.4
4 Royals AL 737 198 35 3 20 88 82 50 108 5 19 18 5 .293 .343 .442 .342 99.0
5 Red Sox AL 786 185 46 1 24 95 91 71 138 6 20 8 3 .264 .333 .434 .335 101.6
6 Rays AL 737 168 43 4 20 113 112 80 151 4 12 21 10 .259 .342 .431 .339 96.6
7 Blue Jays AL 762 158 56 3 28 93 90 67 175 7 9 14 1 .232 .304 .447 .322 98.2
8 Angels AL 775 185 44 0 21 87 84 62 141 9 20 17 6 .265 .330 .418 .328 96.7
9 Rangers AL 705 155 29 4 14 85 78 64 145 8 13 20 4 .248 .322 .374 .310 78.6
10 Athletics AL 739 166 35 3 12 92 90 68 126 6 18 12 2 .253 .325 .370 .310 81.4
11 White Sox AL 693 137 24 2 26 74 67 63 96 10 23 21 7 .222 .303 .393 .306 76.7
12 Orioles AL 723 162 35 3 17 62 59 50 130 8 19 5 4 .244 .304 .383 .303 75.5
13 Mariners AL 725 154 33 4 9 73 70 68 133 4 11 17 6 .238 .312 .344 .295 71.5
14 Indians AL 697 137 30 2 12 62 59 72 142 7 20 9 5 .223 .310 .337 .293 66.4

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs

A team OBP of .304 is generally not conducive to scoring runs, although the Orioles have actually scored fewer runs than you’d expect given their context-neutral linear weights batting runs.  This is probably mostly due to them hitting .183/.270/.294 with runners in scoring position. 

The Orioles have played 19 games this year, and have used 18 different lineups.  With Brian Roberts out with a back injury, here’s what is probably their most likely current lineup and how they compare to the Yankees.

Player Pos PA Outs BR OBP Player Pos PA Outs BR OBP
Derek Jeter SS 5 3.1 0.69 .372 Lou Montanez LF 5 3.4 0.58 .320
Nick Johnson DH 5 3.0 0.72 .405 Adam Jones CF 5 3.3 0.69 .336
Mark Teixeira 1B 5 3.1 0.84 .381 Nick Markakis RF 5 3.1 0.75 .371
Alex Rodriguez 3B 5 3.1 0.87 .387 Miguel Tejada 3B 5 3.3 0.62 .332
Robinson Cano 2B 5 3.3 0.70 .338 Matt Wieters C 5 3.0 0.65 .358
Jorge Posada C 5 3.2 0.70 .355 Luke Scott DH 4 2.6 0.56 .339
Curtis Granderson CF 5 3.0 0.65 .341 Ty Wigginton 2B 4 2.7 0.52 .329
Nick Swisher RF 4 2.6 0.56 .360 Garrett Atkins 1B 4 2.7 0.49 .332
Brett Gardner LF 4 2.6 0.47 .341 Cesar Izturis SS 4 2.8 0.36 .306
Total 43 27.0 6.20 .365 Total 41 27.0 5.22 .337

Although they’ve only scored about 3.2 runs a game so far this season, the Orioles lineup is more like a 5.2 runs a game lineup that’s going through a rough stretch.

PA: # of PA in a single game
Outs: Outs made at the plate, equals PA times (1 minus OBP)
BR: Linear weights batting runs for listed PA
OBP:projected OBP

Oriole pitching hasn’t been very good either.

Rnk team lg Role G GS IP H R ER HR BB IBB HBP SO RA ERA FIP RSAR
4 Yankees AL SP 18 18 112.7 92 47 45 8 45 0 6 95 3.75 3.59 3.79 25.8
12 Orioles AL SP 19 19 110.0 123 70 58 11 35 4 5 84 5.73 4.75 4.06 1.1
9 Yankees AL RP 42 0 42.3 40 20 19 6 13 0 3 33 4.25 4.04 4.62 3.0
10 Orioles AL RP 55 0 53.7 55 28 28 7 26 5 1 48 4.70 4.70 4.62 1.1
5 Yankees AL Total 60 18 155.0 132 67 64 14 58 0 9 128 3.89 3.72 4.02 28.8
12 Orioles AL Total 74 19 163.7 178 98 86 18 61 9 6 132 5.39 4.73 4.24 2.2

Their bullpen hasn’t been that much worse than the Yankees’, although they save all their sucking for blowing leads against Boston.  Their rotation has a pretty good FIP, but they’ve allowed a lot more runs than their peripherals say they should have.  They’ve also allowed 12 unearned runs, compared to the Yankees whio’ve allowed three.

Defensively, the Orioles projected around average going into the year, but so far this year they’ve been around four runs worse than average.

Pos Player RS RS/150 Player RS RS/150
C Jorge Posada -0.03 -5 Matt Wieters 0.00 0
1B Mark Teixeira 0.02 3 Garrett Atkins -0.01 -1
2B Robinson Cano 0.00 -1 Ty Wigginton -0.02 -3
3B Alex Rodriguez -0.03 -5 Miguel Tejada 0.00 0
SS Derek Jeter -0.03 -4 Cesar Izturis 0.04 6
LF Brett Gardner 0.02 3 Lou Montanez 0.00 0
CF Curtis Granderson 0.04 5 Adam Jones 0.02 3
RF Nick Swisher 0.00 0 Nick Markakis -0.01 -1
Total -0.01 -2 0.01 2

RS: Projected runs saved compared to average defensively per game, using an average of projected zone rating and UZR
RS/150: RS pro-rated to 150 games

As bad as the Orioles have looked to this point, we really can’t expect them to be this bad going forward.  Let’s just hope the correction comes AFTER this series.

So here are the inputs to figure out the win probablity of each game.

Yankees
Offense: 6.20 runs
Defense: -0.01 runs
Game 1 pitching: 4.1 runs
Game 2 pitching: 3.7 runs
Game 3 pitching: 4.3 runs

Orioles
Offense: 5.20 runs
Defense: +0.01 runs
Game 1 pitching: 5.1 runs
Game 2 pitching: 5.1 runs
Game 3 pitching: 4.9 runs

Yankee Win Probabilities
Game 1: 65.8%
Game 2: 69.6%
Game 3: 61.9%

After losing two of three games to the Angels, the Yankees are now on pace to win 97.5 games, which puts them behind the Rays who are on pace to win 98.8.  Because of that, a sweep would be nice, but the most likely outcome is the Yankees taking two of three. 

I’ve always felt that Baltimore plays better against the Yankees than they do against Boston, but to see if that’s actually true, here are some splits going back to 2005.

2005-2009 Orioles vs. PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Boston Red Sox 3411 3064 370 795 169 9 77 352 52 16 280 571 .259 .323 .396 .719
New York Yankees 3543 3168 477 888 160 15 108 459 67 28 284 548 .280 .342 .443 .785
2005-2009 Orioles vs. W L RA ERA FIP GS IP H R ER HR BB HBP SO
Boston Red Sox 25 65 6.32 5.84 5.38 90 779 914 547 506 101 448 37 535
New York Yankees 35 56 6.04 5.67 5.53 91 797 894 535 502 136 371 44 577

Well, that’s pretty f’ing annoying, isn’t it?

--Posted at 2:32 pm by SG / 14 Comments | - (0)



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