Friday, September 21, 2012
Yahoo!: Phil Hughes becomes second Yankee to record four strikeouts in one inning
That achievement, of course, is a pitcher recording four strikeouts in a single inning, and now they can finally say it’s happened twice after Phil Hughes struck out four straight batters in the fourth inning of their 10-7 win over the Toronto Blue Jays.
Hughes’ first victim in the inning was J.P. Arencibia, whom he finished off in three pitches with a slider away. After a quick visit from the training staff and Joe Girardi, Hughes got Adeiny Hechavarria swinging on a high fastball that catcher Russell Martin couldn’t handle. Martin was charged with a passed ball because it rolled all the way to screen, allowing Hechavarria to reach and Hughes to pursue a little history.
Now working from the stretch, Hughes would fan Anthony Gose on four pitches with a swing-and-miss curveball low and in. He then completed the impressive inning by catching Brett Lawrie looking on another dandy curveball. Four up, four strikeouts. And he did it all in an economical 17 pitches.
Now, if you can believe this, the only other Yankee to strike out four in an inning was A.J. Burnett, who also did it one time with the Miami Marlins back on July 5, 2002. His four strikeout inning with the Yankees happened on June 24, 2011 when he out Chris Iannetta, Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Nelson and Todd Helton of the Colorado Rockies consecutively, with Nelson reaching on a wild pitch.
Hughes and Burnett, like peas in a pod.
In other assorted crap.
Daily News: Yankee captain Derek Jeter says he’s open to the possibility of playing for another team
As part of a 15-minute powwow last Friday before the Rays series, Reilly asked: “Peyton Manning changed teams this season after 14 seasons with one team. Could you see yourself doing that?”
“Well, if I wanted to keep playing, yes,” Jeter replied. “It’s a business. People forget that.”
Because the team has started annoyingly winning again, let’s manufacture some controversy!
NY Post: Cano slandered by a reckless nit-Twit
Multiple sources confirmed to The Post that the Yankees’ Robinson Cano has not failed a test for illegal performance-enhancing drugs, contradicting a Twitter dispatch by some Charlotte, N.C., television dimwit named Dan Tordjman.
At roughly 1:00 Thursday afternoon, Tordjman — who describes himself in his Twitter page as “a keen observer of NY sports, horse racing and all things Depeche Mode” — tweeted, “Can’t confirm this but I’m hearing that Robinson Cano tested positive for PEDs. Announcement from MLB coming shortly.”
These are new steroids that don’t work when runners are in scoring position.
“Just by feeling it right now you can tell that it’s swollen and tight and sore,” Teixeira said Thursday.
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has expressed hope Teixeira could return in time for the team’s trip to Toronto from Sept. 27-30. He has not resumed on-field workouts but planned to take indoor batting practice Thursday.
“I don’t want to put any timetable on it because we tried to do that last time and it kind of put unwanted pressure on everybody,” he said. “We all wanted me to be back as soon as possible and I wasn’t, I wasn’t ready. So I’m just going to take it day by day, and when the doctors tell me that I’m clear, when the trainers tell me that I’m clear, when the strength coach and the baseball people all say you look normal, you’re running fine, then I’ll be out there playing.”
The runway is getting a lot shorter for Teixeira, but I’d guess they’ll give it a shot by the last series of the year. If he gets hurt again, he’ll have the offseason to heal up. Besides, the Yankees don’t need him with Steve Pearce and Casey McGehee around.
Friday, February 17, 2012
If This Is It (for A.J. as a Yankee)
It feels counter-intuitive, but I will have mostly fond memories of A.J. Burnett’s time as a Yankee. He was a huge part of the 2009 World Series run, with Game 2 of the World Series being the shining moment, with an honorable mention to Game 2 of the ALDS and Game 2 of the ALCS. I actually even liked the fact that he lost Game 5 in both the ALCS and World Series since it meant the Yankees went home with two shots to clinch both series. The impact to the business side of that should not be ignored. If not for the extra revenue from those Game 6s, the Yankees might not have been able to afford Pedro Feliciano or Damaso Marte or Rafael Soriano. But I digress…
His pie-throwing after all the walkoff wins was also lots of fun, and I’ll also remember his seven shutout innings against Boston in the 15 inning 2-0 victory on August 7, 2009. Really, the more I think about, the 2009 Yankees may have been the second-best Yankee team I’ve ever watched, and Burnett was front and center on it.
Even when he struggled over the past two years he had his moments. He pitched pretty well in the ALCS in 2010 but was probably left in too long which likely cost them the win. Then last year in a game I was sure would end in disaster, he pitched 5.1 solid innings against Boston in Fenway on September 1. The Yankees entered that game with a record of 81-53, trailing Boston’s 83-52 by 1.5 games. The Yankees moved into first place the next day and their 16-12 September allowed them to finish well-ahead of Boston, who went a disastrous 7-19 in September. It’s easy to forget now, but heading into September the AL East was Boston’s to lose, which they did an admirable job of doing, and Burnett was a tiny part of that.
Then, with the Yankees’ backs against the wall in an elimination game on the road in the ALDS, Burnett held Detroit to one run over 5.2 innings which helped the Yankees win Game 4 and bring the series back to New York.
Yeah, it was frustrating to watch him struggle as much as he did throughout a large part of his tenure here, but I never got the feeling Burnett was doing anything but trying his best. He was always at his locker to answer tough questions, and as far as I can tell his teammates all liked him.
It’s easy to say “he should just throw more strikes” or “he needs to add a changeup”, but there’s no evidence that Burnett wasn’t trying to do either of those things. He just couldn’t do it in games and as his stuff diminished so did his effectiveness.
Burnett’s peripherals over the last two years were a bit better than his RA/ERA would tell you and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pitch pretty well in Pittsburgh, and I really hope he does. But I think trading him now was the right thing to do.
So I’d like to thank A.J. for 2009 and those nice moments in 2010-2011 and wish him good luck in Pittsburgh, even though I’m certain he’ll never read this.
@MLB: BREAKING: Yanks, Bucs agree to Burnett deal
BREAKING: Yanks, Bucs agree to Burnett deal, source tells @MLBNetwork insider @Ken_Rosenthal. Trade needs MLB approval due to $ involved.
Looks like a done deal.
More details as they become available.
@Ken Rosenthal: Deal needs #MLB approval. #Yankees will pay $20M of $33M left on Burnett’s contract, receive two low-level minor leaguers from #Pirates.
@Ken Rosenthal: Source: #Yankees, #Pirates in agreement on Burnett. Were working through one final detail today. Burnett will take physical Sunday. #MLB
Update: According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Yankees will be receiving Diego Moreno (25 Yr Old RHP) and Exicardo Cayones (20 Yr Old OF). I know nothing of their prospectness, but their names are awesome.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
NYDN: Yankees’ A.J. Burnett balks at trade that would send him to Angels for Bobby Abreu
TAMPA - The Yankees were hoping they could bring back Bobby Abreu to be their designated hitter by swapping A.J. Burnett to the Angels, but the righthander would not waive his no-trade rights, according to two baseball executives with knowledge of the talks.
So rather than having their winter business concluded and a DH in place, the Yankees Wednesday were still working on sending Burnett to the Pirates for two marginal prospects, one of the executives said. The executive said the trade could be consummated by the weekend — Burnett is slated to report to Yankees spring camp Sunday.
My first thought on this was that I didn’t think Abreu was a better option at DH than Russell Branyan, Johnny Damon, and some of the other candidates that are available. Here are the CAIRO projections for some of the possible Yankee DH options, overall wOBA and platoon splits.
| Player | Bats | Projected wOBA | Vs L | Vs R |
| Russell Branyan | L | .353 | .324 | .360 |
| Raul Ibanez | L | .350 | .324 | .359 |
| Bobby Abreu | L | .344 | .307 | .358 |
| J.D. Drew | L | .345 | .315 | .355 |
| Johnny Damon | L | .340 | .324 | .346 |
| Hideki Matsui | L | .337 | .323 | .343 |
There’s not much difference between Abreu, Branyan or Raul Ibanez vs. LHP. Since J.D. Drew’s name has never come up we can probably ignore him. Depending on how the financials worked out Abreu might have been the best choice, but at this point it’s a non-issue.
I don’t begrudge A.J. refusing the trade. He negotiated the right to have that option and he used it.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Montreal Gazette: Pirates still out front in A.J. Burnett sweepstakes
Yes, the Montreal Gazette. I am going international in the quest to know the very latest on this critical situation and will leave no stone unturned.
A source said Tuesday that the Indians and Angels checked in about Burnett, with Cleveland offering Travis Hafner as part of its proposal. The source said the Angels made what the Yankees considered to be an “even better offer,” but Burnett has a limited no-trade clause that lists 10 teams, including the Angels.
I wonder who the Angels offered? I’d assume Jeff Mathis but he was traded, so it must be someone of that ilk. Vernon Wells maybe?
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
How Much Might A.J. Burnett Be Worth to Pittsburgh?
There’s been no reported change in the status of the Yankees discussing trading A.J. Burnett to the Pirates. According to Marc Carig the teams are deadlocked over the parameters of a potential deal.
The Yankees have already rejected a proposal in which the Pirates would have absorbed $10 million while sending a package of minor-leaguers for Burnett. But left-handed DH candidate Garrett Jones was never discussed, the person with knowledge said.
The Yankees, according the person with knowledge, are “fully prepared to have A.J. in camp,” if a deal can’t be arranged. However, the Pirates remain frontrunners in talks.
Two other teams are involved in trade talks for Burnett, and according to the person with knowledge, one of the teams is “very serious.” But that club is one of several on the West Coast included on Burnett’s no-trade list.
We know Burnett’s raw stats would probably look better in the NL, but I thought it might be instructive to look at two sets of CAIRO projections for Burnett.
Burnett as a Yankee
| % | G | GS | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 36 | 36 | 12 | 11 | 211 | 205 | 104 | 96 | 24 | 78 | 9 | 196 | 4.42 | 4.12 | 3.84 | 39 | 3.9 |
| 65% | 34 | 34 | 11 | 11 | 200 | 201 | 105 | 98 | 25 | 79 | 10 | 179 | 4.73 | 4.41 | 4.18 | 30 | 3.0 |
| Baseline | 32 | 32 | 10 | 11 | 190 | 199 | 106 | 99 | 26 | 79 | 11 | 164 | 5.03 | 4.70 | 4.52 | 22 | 2.2 |
| 35% | 26 | 26 | 7 | 10 | 152 | 165 | 90 | 84 | 23 | 67 | 10 | 126 | 5.33 | 4.99 | 4.86 | 13 | 1.3 |
| 20% | 23 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 133 | 149 | 83 | 78 | 22 | 62 | 10 | 106 | 5.63 | 5.28 | 5.20 | 7 | 0.7 |
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs saved above replacement level using RA
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
Burnett as a Pirate
| % | G | GS | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 36 | 36 | 13 | 10 | 211 | 182 | 87 | 81 | 19 | 76 | 9 | 218 | 3.72 | 3.46 | 3.30 | 36 | 3.6 |
| 65% | 34 | 34 | 11 | 11 | 200 | 179 | 89 | 83 | 20 | 77 | 10 | 199 | 4.01 | 3.74 | 3.62 | 28 | 2.8 |
| Baseline | 32 | 32 | 10 | 11 | 190 | 177 | 91 | 85 | 21 | 77 | 11 | 183 | 4.29 | 4.01 | 3.95 | 21 | 2.1 |
| 35% | 26 | 26 | 8 | 9 | 152 | 147 | 77 | 72 | 19 | 65 | 10 | 141 | 4.57 | 4.28 | 4.27 | 12 | 1.2 |
| 20% | 23 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 133 | 133 | 72 | 67 | 18 | 60 | 10 | 118 | 4.86 | 4.55 | 4.60 | 6 | 0.6 |
In terms of value there’s not much difference there. The values aren’t identical but they are close enough to basically be equivalent given the margin of error inherent in projections. Eyeballing the Pirates’ projections, Burnett would probably be their best starter assuming Erik Bedard can’t stay healthy, which is generally a safe assumption. If 2 WAR is close for Burnett in 2012, then we can probably assume something like 1-1.5 WAR in 2013, so he should be worth something like 3-3.5 WAR for Pittsburgh.
The problem is we don’t know how much a marginal win for Pittsburgh is worth to them. Accordign to my last projected standings Pittsburgh projected to win around 68 games. An earlier Marcel run said 72. Adding two wins to either total still leaves Pittsburgh well short of realistic contention although it probably boosts their odds of qualifying for the postseason by about 3%. If a marginal win is worth something like $5M to the Yankees, it may only be worth something like $3M to Pittsburgh.
If I were Pittsburgh, I’d hold steady at $10M. I don’t think Burnett’s worth more than that to them. My guess is the Yankees will eventually cave after trying to extract every last cent they can. $10M is probably worth more to them than having Burnett at this point.
Monday, February 13, 2012
WSJ: Where Burnett Places In the Pantheon of Busts
If his Yankee career is over after three years, a 34-35 record, and a 4.79 ERA, then we can finally assess Burnett’s place in the Yankee pantheon—of free agent busts. Before the 2009 season, the Yankees promised Burnett $82.5 million over five years. Various reports indicate that the Pirates could pick up between $10 million and $13 million of the remaining $33 million the Yankees owe Burnett—meaning the Yankees will pay Burnett roughly $70 million for a total of 3.4 Wins Above Replacement, a stat that measures a player’s total value over that of a triple-A call-up, according to Baseball-Reference.com.
How does that measure up against some of the other long-term, little-return contracts the Yankees have handed out in the Derek Jeter era? Will Burnett be remembered as poorly as big-name busts like Kenny Rogers, Kei Igawa, and Carl Pavano?
This deal seems to be taking too long to materialize, making me think Pittsburgh is starting to get wise. We need more articles written about Game Two to help sway their front office.
Sunday, February 12, 2012
TGS: Pirates lead A.J. Burnett talks
The two teams haven’t agreed on the dollar figure the Yankees will eat to facilitate the trade, and they haven’t agreed on the players that the Pirates will send to the Yankees.
But they have found enough common ground that Pittsburgh is now the clear front-runner.
A source familiar with the negotiations had told ESPNNewYork’s Wallace Matthews on Saturday that the talks had “legs” and were “real.”
But Pirates right fielder Garrett Jones, a left-handed bat whom the Yankees coveted, had been taken off the table, according to the source.
With the serious trade talks going on the Yankees have paused their pursuit of a designated hitter in the free agent market.
They are doing so, a baseball official said, because they want to see if they receive someone who could DH in a possible deal for Burnett.
Apparently, the Yankees “don’t love” the two minor leaguers the Pirates have offered in a potential A.J. Burnett trade.
Friday, February 10, 2012
MLB Trade Rumors: Yankees, Pirates Talking A.J. Burnett Trade
3:47pm: The Pirates appear to be willing to absorb $10MM in a trade, Heyman tweets. The Yankees have been pushing for an even split and seek an OK prospect in return. Heyman tweets that the chances of a deal remain “decent.”
An OK prospect? What does that mean?
Seems to me saving $10M is probably enough to make this potential deal make sense.
Sunday, January 22, 2012
NJ.com: Bradley: Yankees hope to find A.J. Burnett a new home
A source with knowledge of the Yankee organization’s plan for the rest of the off-season said, “It’s a waiting game now to see if A.J. can be dealt. If he is, the Yankees will hope to get a bat in return, or save enough money to get a bat.”
It is tricky, of course, because the whole baseball world knows after the Yankees acquired (pending a clean physical) Michael Pineda from the Seattle Mariners and signed free agent Hiroki Kuroda that the next move Cashman would hope to make is to offload Burnett and a sizeable portion of the $33 million he is owed over the next two seasons.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
TGS NY An arm for a bat?
And with the addition of Kuroda and Michael Pineda to the rotation, the Yankees certainly would appear to have a surplus of starting pitching.
In that case, someone—either Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett or Freddy Garcia—has to go somewhere. It would be silly, of course, to ask you which should go. That is one vote Mr. Burnett would win in a landslide. But moving an underachieving 35-year-old pitcher with $33 million remaining on his contract is about as easy as moving a grand piano up five flights of stairs.
So it’s more likely going to be Hughes or Garcia. Hughes, obviously, has value in the bullpen. Freddy has never really worked there. So it would seem that Garcia is the more likely candidate if the Yankees chose to trade a pitcher for a DH. (Don’t ask me who they would get because I’m through trying to guess the GM’s next move; as in the Pineda deal, I assume Cashman will come up with a name none of us have thought of.)
I think trading Hughes now is a bad idea because his value is probably the lowest it’s ever been. I still think he’s got a chance to be a #2/#3 starter but his window of opportunity is closing. With CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda and Ivan Nova under team control for the next five years and with Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances working their way towards the majors another bad season probably pushes him into the bullpen or even out of the organization.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Salvaging a Sunken Cost
You can make a case that A.J. Burnett has negative value right now. While he does project to be above replacement level in CAIRO, it’s important to remember that the idea of replacement level is an abstraction. When thinking about it practically, a replacement level player shouldn’t necessarily be a freely available player. It can be a player in your organization who projects to be better than replacement level but is behind other players on the team’s depth chart.
Burnett projects to have an RA of 5.03 in CAIRO. The following possible starting pitchers project better than that.
CC Sabathia (3.57)
Michael Pineda (4.37)
Freddy Garcia (4.55)
Brad Meyers (4.56)
Hiroki Kuroda (4.57)
Phil Hughes (4.63)
Ivan Nova (4.93)
Projecting is an inexact science, but aside from Brad Meyers who we just don’t know much about yet, I’d expect all of those pitchers to pitch better than Burnett in 2012.
If that’s true, then every start that goes to Burnett is a start that should be going to one of the above. There’s also an opportunity cost in denying starts to any of the pitching prospects that may have developed to the point of also being better than Burnett, including but not limited to Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, Adam Warren and David Phelps.
Unfortunately, since Burnett is owed $33 million over the next two years, the Yankees probably feel obligated to try and get some value out of him.
I don’t think they can do that by pitching him. So thinking about the question EB in LA asked in the previous post about trading Burnett’s bad contract to another team for their bad contract might be a way to recoup some of that value.
EB mentioned Adam Dunn, Jason Bay, Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano.
| Player | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | Total | |||||
| Salary | WAR | Salary | WAR | Salary | WAR | Salary | WAR | $/WAR | |
| A.J. Burnett | 16.5 | 16.5 | $33.0 | 0.0 | $0.00 | ||||
| Jason Bay | 16 | 2.1 | 16 | 1.6 | 3 | $35.0 | 3.6 | $9.67 | |
| Adam Dunn | 14 | 1.9 | 15 | 1.4 | 15 | 0.9 | $44.0 | 4.3 | $10.25 |
| Carlos Lee | 18.5 | 1.7 | $18.5 | 1.7 | $11.09 | ||||
| Alfonso Soriano | 18 | 1.2 | 18 | 0.7 | 18 | 0.2 | $54.0 | 2.2 | $24.71 |
This table shows the remaining guaranteed money owed to the four potential hitters (in millions) and their projected WAR as DHs, assuming a 0.5 WAR decrease per season.
Trading Burnett for Jason Bay makes a lot of sense to me. The Mets are cash-strapped and their starting rotation is thin. For the cost of $2M above the money spent on Burnett, the Yankees could conceivably pick up 3.6 WAR. Lee would be even better since you’re only committed to one year but that $18.5M difference in guaranteed money probably means the Yankees would have to eat a large chunk of money. Dunn projects better than Lee and worse than Bay but he’s still owed $44M and his 2011 was so bad that I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s effectively done as an MLB hitter. Soriano doesn’t make any sense to me since he is the most expensive of the group despite projecting to be the least valuable of them.
Bay may not have much left, but his park is a tough one for hitters so he might surprise in a disgraceful bandbox. He’s probably restricted to DH since he’s not a good fielder, although I suppose he could play an occasional game in LF against a lefty. Then again, none of the other players are much different in that regard.
So sign me up as pro for a Burnett/Bay swap.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
CBS Sports: Miller: Savvy Yankees hit home run with Pineda, Kuroda
Just a few days after meeting with the representatives for free agent Edwin Jackson, the Yankees became the talk of the industry on what had been a slow Friday night with their stealth move for Pineda, who, at 22, already is within sight of becoming an ace.
“He’s got that kind of stuff,” a scout who spent part of last summer focusing on AL West clubs said Friday night. “If you wanted to be conservative, he’s a No. 2. He’s got velocity, he came up with a slider that got better and better last year and he throws strikes. When he gives up a home run or a hard-hit ball, it does not chase him out of the strike zone.
“He’s got that rare combination of stuff and control. He’s young, he’s not afraid, he’s big, he’s still growing and he’s got makeup. He’s a prize.
“And the Yankees will have, what, five years of control over him? He’s the kind of guy you build around. Holy cow.”
...
By season’s end, over 28 starts, he struck out 173 hitters while walking just 55 over 171 innings. His average fastball was clocked at 94.7 m.p.h., according to FanGraphs.What’s notable about that? The fastballs of only three other AL starters checked in higher: Texas’ Alexi Ogando, Detroit’s Justin Verlander and Tampa Bay’s David Price.
Kuroda? He turns 37 next month. But he gave the Dodgers 202 innings in 2011, going 13-16 with a 3.07 ERA. He’s a competitor with fierce pride.
“Solid No. 3,” the scout said. “He throws strikes, he’s got good stuff, a crisp fastball that’s deceptive and he throws harder than people think. He’s at 90 to 94 with sink down in the zone, a crisp breaking ball and a good split.
“He’s got out pitches. I’d love to have Kuroda.”
If you’re going to trade Montero, trading him for a potential ace with five more years under team control makes it sting a little less.
Anyway, the starting pitcher WAR I posted in the last thread were off, so here is the revised version.
Before
CC Sabathia, 220 IP, 6.1 WAR
Ivan Nova, 190 IP, 2.4 WAR
Phil Hughes, 175 IP, 2.8 WAR
A.J. Burnett, 175 IP, 2.1 WAR
Freddy Garcia, 150 IP, 2.6 WAR
Hector Noesi, 50 IP, 0.3 WAR
Adam Warren, 25 IP, 0.2 WAR
David Phelps, 15 IP, 0.1 WAR
Starters, 1000 IP, 16.6 WAR
After
CC Sabathia, 220 IP, 6.1 WAR
Hiroki Kuroda, 182 IP, 3.1 WAR
Michael Pineda, 168 IP, 3.2 WAR
Ivan Nova, 175 IP, 2.2 WAR
Phil Hughes, 100 IP, 1.6 WAR
A.J. Burnett, 100 IP, 1.2 WAR
Freddy Garcia, 100 IP, 1.7 WAR
Starters, 1045 IP, 19.1 WAR
So figure something in the area of a 2.5 win upgrade in the rotation, more if they can split those Burnett innings between Hughes and Garcia.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
NY Times: Kepner: Yankees Are Saving Now for a Potential Splash Next Winter
Cain is a 27-year-old right-hander, and Hamels is a 28-year-old left-hander. Otherwise, they are essentially the same pitcher. Cain has a 3.35 career earned run average, Hamels 3.39. They allow roughly the same number of base runners, and their advanced statistics (Wins Above Replacement, E.R.A.+) are close.
The Yankees played a version of this waiting game after the 2007 season, when they resisted a trade (and a subsequent long-term contract) for Johan Santana. They gambled that C. C. Sabathia would be available as a free agent the next winter, and they were right. The Yankees missed the playoffs in 2008 but signed Sabathia and won the World Series in 2009.
If we think about this winter’s relative inactivity in the way Kepner is thinking about it here, it doesn’t seem so bad. It is a gamble that either Matt Cain or Cole Hamels will even reach free agency, and yet another gamble that someone else won’t outbid the Yankees for their services, but I think after the A.J. Burnett signing went sour so quickly the Yankees will be gun shy about committing big money and years to anything less than top shelf talent. By the time Burnett’s contract is over, the Yankees will likely have paid $82.5M for maybe 4 WAR.
Not signing less than great players in free agency is a prudent approach provided they can fill out the rest of the roster with complementary players in cost-effective ways. For example, not signing middle relievers for $36M.
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Heyman: Yankees choice could be Garza vs. E-Jax
The Yankees desperately seek a No. 2 starter, and fortunately for them, there are still many viable alternatives available on the trade and free agent markets.
But ultimately, the choice could come down to Matt Garza or Edwin Jackson.
...
The Yankees like Jackson’s arm, his potential and his durability. But they wonder about his consistency. He is one of only three active pitchers 27 or younger with more than 30 games started each of the past five years, the other two being Matt Cain and Felix Hernandez. He is also one of only three age 27 or younger to have thrown 950 innings with no D.L. time the last five years. The others? Cain and Tim Lincecum.
Heyman really needs to start giving Scott Boras by-line credit for these press releases.
Jackson seems a lot like A.J. Burnett coming off his 2005 season to to me. ERA+ of 108 over his prior three seasons and heading into his age 28 year (Burnett was coming off a three year run of 112 ERA+ and heading into his age 29 year. Jackson has a much better health record. Jackson’s still got the stuff that makes him seem like a potential ace, like Burnett did as well.
Burnett pitched reasonably well over his ages 29-32 seasons (ERA+ of 112 and 10.4 bWAR). After that, as you are probably well aware, it’s been a rough go.
If the Yankees could sign Jackson for two or three years, I’d probably be cool with it. Since that’s probably not realistic, I’d rather see them pass.
On an unrelated note, Chris Jaffe takes a stab at predicting the Hall of Fame voting results for next week in this article. It’s Bernie Williams’s first year on the ballot. Unfortunately, I fear it’s going to be his only year on the ballot. I don’t think Bernie’s a Hall of Famer, but I’d kind of like to see him hang around the ballot for a while so people can remember how good he really was. Sort of like Don Mattingly.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Fox Sports: Klapisch: Yanks end days of splurging on talent
There are two factors in play here. The first has to do with Hal Steinbrenner’s desire to save money, as opposed to his father, George, who funneled most of the Yankees’ profits back into the payroll. Peel away the layers of Yankees rhetoric, and what the younger Steinbrenner wants is to make money and win championships. In that order.
That plays into the second co-efficient: Just how much does a team have to spend to rule the world? The Yankees used to be obsessed with assembling a nuclear roster — a superstar at every position, if that’s what it took.
But what did that philosophy really yield? The Yankees have won only one World Series since 2000, nearly $2 billion in outlay for one ring in 2009. It’s a horrific return on investment, a revelation that finally hit home this past October.
The Yankees led the American League with 97 wins, spent more than anyone else with a $203 million payroll, yet were bounced in the first round of the playoffs.
“And it wasn’t just us,” said a team official. “Look at the Phillies.”
Indeed, the Yankees point to Philadelphia’s failure to win the pennant in the past two years — despite adding Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay — as proof that there’s no such thing as a sure thing. Not anymore.
If only they’d realized this before signing Rafael Soriano. That $12M per year plus $4-5M luxury tax hit plus first round draft pick could surely have been put to better use, no?
If you think about this logically, the Yankees have a lot of bad contracts that are tying their hands. If any team could take any one of the following players for free providing they had to pay their entire salaries would they?
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Mark Teixeira
A.J. Burnett
Soriano
I doubt it. That’s like what, $80M per year?
Saturday, December 24, 2011
TGS NY: Source: It is about the money with Kuroda
The Yankees are still unlikely to do anything major this offseason unless they can unload some money, a baseball official with knowledge of their plans. So even though they like Hiroki Kuroda a lot, Yankees GM Brian Cashman does not have the cash to spend on the righty starter. Kuroda figures to receive at least $12 million on a one-year deal.
Feeling they have five starters in CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett and Freddy Garcia, that is not in Cashman’s budget. The Yankees already have commitments that will put their 2012 payroll in the $185-$200M range.
Since the topic of signing Kuroda or Edwin Jackson to replace Burnett in the rotation came up in an earlier thread, here’s a quick projection comparison of the three as Yankees in CAIRO.
I set the innings the same for all three for a direct comparison.
| Pitcher | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| Burnett | 32 | 32 | 190 | 199 | 110 | 103 | 26 | 79 | 11 | 164 | 5.22 | 4.88 | 4.52 | 13 | 1.3 |
| Jackson | 30 | 30 | 190 | 213 | 100 | 93 | 20 | 63 | 4 | 140 | 4.74 | 4.39 | 3.97 | 23 | 2.3 |
| Kuroda | 31 | 31 | 190 | 202 | 99 | 87 | 22 | 47 | 5 | 134 | 4.67 | 4.11 | 3.92 | 25 | 2.5 |
The last CAIRO spreadsheet had Burnett at 1.9 WAR but I had replacement level set too low so he’s at 1.3 now. We’re more interested in the difference though. Both Jackson and Kuroda project about a win better than Burnett in 2012.
Unfortunately, the cost of adding that additional win is likely $12M for at least one year. It doesn’t really make sense if you look at it that way. So I think the Yankees are probably right to sit tight here, even if it’s a little boring right now.
Happy holidays to everyone.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
NY Post: Rangers win Darvish bid at $51.7M
Several teams are kicking the tires on acquiring A.J. Burnett, but it’s going to take the Yankees swallowing more than $8 million of the $33 million remaining on Burnett’s final two years. And Burnett can submit 10 teams every year to which he wouldn’t accept a trade.
Burnett’s got $33M left on his contract. CAIRO thinks he’ll be worth maybe 2-3 WAR over that time. So in theory he’s worth about $10-15M. So the Yankees would probably have to swallow closer to $18-20M to be rid of him. I don’t think they’ll do that.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
CBS NY: Report: Yankees Open To A.J. Burnett Trade, Find No Takers
According to the New York Post, the Yankees have let teams know that they are ready to listen to trade offers for the embattled starter. They’re even reportedly willing to kick in $8 million of the $33 million he’s owed over the next two seasons.
But so far, reported the paper, the Yankees “haven’t gotten a nibble.”
Report: I am willing to give away all the useless crap I have in my house. Why people aren’t lining up for it, I’m not sure.
Sorry for the lack of posts, I’ve been busy with real-life stuff and my laptop’s screen died so I don’t have as much internet access.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
CAIRO 2012 v0.2
Here’s the latest version of the 2012 CAIRO projections, which can be downloaded here: cairo_2012_v0.2.xls.
What’s changed?
- Added more minor leaguers
- Added defensive projections for catchers and added Totalzone and Zone Rating projections for the other positions
- Added W-L for the pitchers, based on their current team and that team’s runs scored in 2011. This will change as teams’ offensive projections change, so keep that in mind.
- Took the Marcels and changed the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
So, what does CAIRO 2012 v0.2 think about how good the Yankees are right now?
| Lineup | Player | Pos | PA | avg/obp/slg | wOBA | Outs | BR | BRAR | Def | WAR |
| 1 | Derek Jeter | SS | 550 | .286/.345/.384 | .317 | 360 | 64 | 20 | -6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | Curtis Granderson | CF | 600 | .263/.351/.502 | .350 | 389 | 91 | 38 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 3 | Robinson Cano | 2B | 625 | .303/.352/.504 | .352 | 405 | 93 | 39 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 4 | Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 450 | .273/.363/.474 | .351 | 286 | 66 | 27 | 0 | 2.7 |
| 5 | Mark Teixeira | 1B | 625 | .263/.359/.493 | .352 | 401 | 93 | 26 | 4 | 3.0 |
| 6 | Nick Swisher | RF | 600 | .259/.356/.455 | .341 | 386 | 83 | 22 | 4 | 2.6 |
| 7 | Jesus Montero | DH | 500 | .267/.322/.470 | .326 | 339 | 66 | 9 | 0 | 0.9 |
| 8 | Russell Martin | C | 500 | .253/.347/.383 | .319 | 326 | 58 | 22 | 1 | 2.3 |
| 9 | Brett Gardner | LF | 500 | .262/.347/.371 | .315 | 326 | 61 | 10 | 22 | 3.2 |
| Starters | 4950 | .271/.350/.452 | .337 | 3220 | 675 | 212 | 25 | 23.7 | ||
| Bench | Player | Pos | PA | avg/obp/slg | wOBA | Outs | BR | BRAR | Def | WAR |
| Eduardo Nunez | IF | 350 | .262/.315/.392 | .299 | 240 | 40 | 10 | -5 | 0.5 | |
| Chris Dickerson | OF | 250 | .243/.321/.369 | .298 | 170 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0.3 | |
| Ramiro Pena | IF | 152 | .240/.290/.340 | .272 | 108 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Francisco Cervelli | C | 150 | .264/.328/.373 | .303 | 101 | 16 | 5 | -3 | 0.5 | |
| Colin Curtis | OF | 75 | .244/.312/.391 | .299 | 52 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | |
| Brandon Laird | IF | 75 | .247/.292/.407 | .291 | 53 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0.2 | |
| Corban Joseph | 2B | 75 | .237/.304/.356 | .284 | 52 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | |
| Zoilo Almonte | IF | 75 | .227/.282/.379 | .277 | 54 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | |
| Justin Maxwell | OF | 75 | .220/.315/.397 | .303 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | |
| Bench | 1277 | .248/.311/.378 | .294 | 880 | 135 | 24 | -5 | 1.9 | ||
| Team Total | 6227 | .266/.342/.436 | .328 | 4100 | 810 | 236 | 17 | 25.6 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
The Yankees are not likely to add a position player who will significantly improve these projections, so I think the critical number here is 450. If they can get more than 450 PA out of Alex Rodriguez they’ll project a bit better. They can also probably shore up the bench by adding an outfielder who projects better than Chris Dickerson, or who can at least be platooned with Dickerson. That could be accomplished by bringing back Andruw Jones or signing Cody Ross perhaps. Ross would project to hit .261/.328/.444 as a Yankee, and is capable of playing all three OF spots. Plus he’s a clutch postseason monster. Until he isn’t.
We do know the Yankees are going to try and improve their pitching.
| Role | Player | IP | H | R | HR | BB | K | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| SP1 | CC Sabathia | 220 | 199 | 87 | 18 | 62 | 195 | 3.58 | 3.25 | 3.23 | 5.5 |
| SP2 | Ivan Nova | 200 | 197 | 109 | 22 | 80 | 124 | 4.91 | 4.48 | 4.52 | 2.1 |
| SP3 | Phil Hughes | 175 | 169 | 94 | 23 | 60 | 136 | 4.86 | 4.72 | 4.26 | 1.9 |
| SP4 | A.J. Burnett | 175 | 172 | 102 | 24 | 73 | 151 | 5.22 | 4.88 | 4.52 | 1.2 |
| SP5 | Hector Noesi | 100 | 112 | 65 | 16 | 33 | 68 | 5.83 | 5.44 | 4.80 | 0.0 |
| SP6 | Adam Warren | 50 | 55 | 32 | 6 | 19 | 29 | 5.71 | 5.28 | 4.72 | 0.1 |
| SP7 | David Phelps | 50 | 57 | 33 | 7 | 17 | 29 | 5.88 | 5.44 | 4.88 | 0.0 |
| SP8 | D. J. Mitchell | 25 | 28 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 6.29 | 5.81 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| SP9 | Manny Banuelos | 25 | 27 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 17 | 6.52 | 6.01 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| SP10 | Dellin Betances | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.80 | 6.29 | 5.75 | 0.0 |
| Starters | 1020 | 1018 | 557 | 124 | 370 | 763 | 4.92 | 4.57 | 4.29 | 10.5 | |
| Role | Player | IP | H | R | HR | BB | K | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| CL | Mariano Rivera | 60 | 44 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 55 | 2.36 | 2.21 | 2.71 | 1.9 |
| SU | David Robertson | 75 | 58 | 24 | 4 | 38 | 95 | 2.88 | 2.70 | 2.84 | 2.0 |
| SU | Rafael Soriano | 60 | 46 | 25 | 6 | 21 | 57 | 3.78 | 3.57 | 3.64 | 1.0 |
| MR | Cory Wade | 60 | 56 | 28 | 8 | 16 | 42 | 4.19 | 3.86 | 4.31 | 0.7 |
| MR | Joba Chamberlain | 50 | 47 | 25 | 5 | 19 | 47 | 4.43 | 4.04 | 3.72 | 0.5 |
| MR | Boone Logan | 50 | 49 | 24 | 5 | 20 | 48 | 4.36 | 3.82 | 3.71 | 0.5 |
| MR | Mike O’Connor | 25 | 26 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 5.32 | 4.94 | 4.37 | 0.0 |
| MR | Kevin Whelan | 25 | 25 | 17 | 3 | 18 | 20 | 6.16 | 5.70 | 5.30 | -0.2 |
| LR | George Kontos | 15 | 16 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 6.51 | 6.03 | 5.64 | -0.2 |
| Relievers | 420 | 366 | 184 | 43 | 158 | 392 | 3.95 | 3.64 | 3.69 | 6.2 | |
| Total | 1440 | 1384 | 742 | 167 | 528 | 1154 | 4.64 | 4.30 | 4.12 | 16.6 |
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
Basically, the Yankees can add a win for every WAR they add to the rotation, since their rotation projects as replacement level after A.J. Burnett. That doesn’t mean none of the kids are better than their projections and would do the job in 2012, it just means they shouldn’t plan for that as what’s going to happen. The bullpen is fine, although they could probably benefit from adding a lefty reliever. An intriguing name that I’ve seen mentioned here and on Fangraphs is Dontrelle Willis. I’ll do a detailed post about him later.
Here’s what the overall picture looks like.
| RS | 810 |
| Def | 17 |
| RA | 742 |
| wpct | .553 |
| p162 | 90 |
So we’re looking at around a 90 win team right now. I think 95 wins is the sweet spot for projecting as the favorite in the AL East. Adding C.J. Wilson probably gets them there. Adding Yu Darvish might. Other than that it’s tough to see a single move that would accomplish it.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
CAIRO 2012 v0.1
I’m heading on vacation for about three weeks, and will probably not be online at all, so I’m releasing my 2012 CAIRO v0.1 now, even though they still need a bit of work. If you have any players you want projected that aren’t in here or see anything that looks off let me know in this thread and I’ll check it when I get back. In the meantime Jonathan will keep you covered on the major happenings in Yankee-land. I hope to return with the news that the Yankees have re-signed CC and won the posting for Yu Darvish, but we’ll see what happens.
Here are some of the key Yankees’ projections.
| Last | First | Age | Pos | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | WAR |
| Cano | Robinson | 30 | 2B | 676 | 620 | 97 | 188 | 42 | 4 | 25 | 100 | 5 | 3 | 42 | 84 | .303 | .352 | .504 | .352 | 95 | 4.1 |
| Granderson | Curtis | 31 | CF | 644 | 560 | 103 | 147 | 24 | 7 | 32 | 86 | 16 | 6 | 73 | 142 | .263 | .351 | .502 | .350 | 92 | 4.0 |
| Teixeira | Mark | 32 | 1B | 692 | 594 | 98 | 156 | 34 | 1 | 33 | 109 | 3 | 1 | 81 | 113 | .263 | .359 | .493 | .352 | 98 | 2.7 |
| Rodriguez | Alex | 37 | 3B | 459 | 398 | 65 | 109 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 78 | 6 | 2 | 53 | 82 | .273 | .363 | .474 | .351 | 63 | 2.6 |
| Montero | Jesus | 23 | C | 380 | 348 | 42 | 93 | 19 | 1 | 17 | 49 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 69 | .267 | .322 | .470 | .326 | 48 | 2.2 |
| Martin | Russell | 29 | C | 511 | 443 | 60 | 112 | 19 | 0 | 13 | 54 | 9 | 3 | 59 | 81 | .253 | .347 | .383 | .319 | 56 | 2.2 |
| Swisher | Nick | 32 | RF | 626 | 533 | 84 | 138 | 31 | 1 | 24 | 82 | 2 | 2 | 80 | 129 | .259 | .356 | .455 | .341 | 81 | 2.2 |
| Jeter | Derek | 38 | SS | 581 | 519 | 82 | 149 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 56 | 16 | 5 | 46 | 83 | .286 | .345 | .384 | .317 | 64 | 2.1 |
| Gardner | Brett | 29 | LF | 484 | 418 | 74 | 109 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 38 | 35 | 8 | 53 | 82 | .262 | .347 | .371 | .315 | 56 | 1.0 |
| Romine | Austin | 24 | C | 346 | 321 | 37 | 78 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 62 | .242 | .294 | .365 | .282 | 31 | 0.8 |
| Maxwell | Justin | 29 | CF | 267 | 233 | 33 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 31 | 79 | .220 | .315 | .397 | .303 | 29 | 0.8 |
| Laird | Brandon | 25 | 3B | 392 | 364 | 42 | 90 | 18 | 1 | 13 | 50 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 72 | .247 | .292 | .407 | .291 | 39 | 0.8 |
| Nunez | Eduardo | 25 | 3B | 281 | 256 | 34 | 67 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 20 | 35 | .262 | .315 | .392 | .299 | 30 | 0.7 |
| Jones | Andruw | 35 | RF | 315 | 271 | 38 | 61 | 13 | 1 | 14 | 41 | 4 | 1 | 37 | 76 | .224 | .320 | .431 | .313 | 36 | 0.7 |
| Cervelli | Francisco | 26 | C | 185 | 164 | 20 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 32 | .264 | .328 | .373 | .303 | 18 | 0.6 |
| Posada | Jorge | 41 | DH | 420 | 368 | 44 | 94 | 20 | 1 | 16 | 55 | 2 | 1 | 46 | 87 | .255 | .340 | .442 | .329 | 51 | 0.6 |
| Molina | Gustavo | 30 | C | 131 | 121 | 12 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 25 | .240 | .285 | .376 | .278 | 12 | 0.3 |
| Bernier | Doug | 32 | SS | 346 | 310 | 34 | 71 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 28 | 76 | .227 | .291 | .324 | .267 | 27 | 0.2 |
| Pena | Ramiro | 27 | SS | 201 | 183 | 23 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 35 | .240 | .290 | .340 | .272 | 17 | 0.2 |
| Curtis | Colin | 27 | LF | 231 | 209 | 26 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 44 | .244 | .312 | .391 | .299 | 24 | 0.2 |
| Dickerson | Chris | 30 | LF | 188 | 165 | 23 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 46 | .243 | .321 | .369 | .298 | 19 | 0.2 |
| Chavez | Eric | 35 | 3B | 149 | 136 | 15 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 31 | .243 | .298 | .364 | .282 | 14 | 0.1 |
| Golson | Greg | 27 | CF | 216 | 198 | 23 | 47 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 51 | .235 | .285 | .355 | .273 | 19 | 0.1 |
| Russo | Kevin | 28 | 2B | 384 | 350 | 41 | 83 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 73 | .236 | .295 | .329 | .272 | 31 | 0.0 |
| Last | First | Age | Role | G | GS | IP | H | HR | BB | IBB | SO | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| Sabathia | CC | 32 | SP | 33 | 33 | 227 | 218 | 19 | 64 | 4 | 201 | 3.25 | 3.23 | 64 | 6.4 |
| Nova | Ivan | 25 | SP | 30 | 29 | 168 | 176 | 19 | 67 | 2 | 104 | 4.48 | 4.52 | 23 | 2.3 |
| Rivera | Mariano | 43 | RP | 65 | 0 | 65 | 50 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 59 | 2.21 | 2.71 | 23 | 2.3 |
| Burnett | A.J. | 36 | SP | 32 | 32 | 190 | 198 | 26 | 79 | 2 | 164 | 4.88 | 4.52 | 19 | 1.9 |
| Colon | Bartolo | 39 | SP | 23 | 22 | 134 | 145 | 18 | 35 | 3 | 103 | 4.16 | 4.07 | 18 | 1.8 |
| Robertson | David | 27 | RP | 63 | 0 | 62 | 50 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 78 | 2.70 | 2.84 | 18 | 1.8 |
| Garcia | Freddy | 37 | SP | 18 | 17 | 102 | 112 | 12 | 30 | 3 | 64 | 4.28 | 4.28 | 18 | 1.8 |
| Hughes | Phil | 26 | SP | 22 | 16 | 95 | 97 | 12 | 32 | 1 | 74 | 4.72 | 4.26 | 13 | 1.3 |
| Soriano | Rafael | 33 | RP | 46 | 0 | 45 | 37 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 43 | 3.57 | 3.64 | 9 | 0.9 |
| Chamberlain | Joba | 27 | RP | 47 | 5 | 69 | 68 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 64 | 4.04 | 3.72 | 8 | 0.8 |
| Warren | Adam | 25 | SP | 28 | 28 | 147 | 173 | 18 | 57 | 0 | 85 | 5.28 | 4.72 | 7 | 0.7 |
| Wade | Cory | 29 | RP | 37 | 0 | 43 | 43 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 30 | 3.86 | 4.31 | 6 | 0.6 |
| Feliciano | Pedro | 36 | RP | 64 | 0 | 48 | 52 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 40 | 4.09 | 3.83 | 6 | 0.6 |
| Logan | Boone | 28 | RP | 56 | 0 | 43 | 45 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 41 | 3.82 | 3.71 | 6 | 0.6 |
| Ayala | Luis | 34 | RP | 42 | 0 | 46 | 48 | 5 | 17 | 2 | 31 | 3.99 | 4.40 | 5 | 0.5 |
| Phelps | David | 26 | SP | 28 | 27 | 152 | 185 | 23 | 50 | 0 | 88 | 5.44 | 4.88 | 4 | 0.4 |
| Prior | Mark | 32 | SP | 13 | 10 | 47 | 52 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 33 | 4.91 | 4.44 | 4 | 0.4 |
| Valdes | Raul | 35 | RP | 30 | 3 | 47 | 51 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 40 | 4.72 | 4.08 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Marte | Damaso | 37 | RP | 43 | 0 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 30 | 4.68 | 4.36 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Farnham | Jeffrey | 25 | RP | 35 | 0 | 37 | 36 | 4 | 19 | 2 | 30 | 4.53 | 4.51 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Flannery | Ryan | 27 | RP | 58 | 0 | 70 | 79 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 42 | 4.91 | 4.43 | 2 | 0.2 |
| Mitre | Sergio | 31 | RP | 31 | 2 | 51 | 52 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 28 | 4.55 | 4.58 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Laffey | Aaron | 27 | RP | 30 | 5 | 54 | 65 | 6 | 24 | 1 | 29 | 4.85 | 4.77 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Norton | Tim | 29 | RP | 39 | 0 | 45 | 47 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 40 | 4.98 | 4.71 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Noesi | Hector | 25 | RP | 31 | 10 | 79 | 94 | 12 | 26 | 2 | 53 | 5.44 | 4.80 | -3 | -0.3 |
| Whelan | Kevin | 28 | RP | 36 | 0 | 39 | 41 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 32 | 5.70 | 5.30 | -3 | -0.3 |
| Mitchell | D. J. | 25 | SP | 32 | 30 | 171 | 205 | 22 | 86 | 0 | 92 | 5.81 | 5.26 | -3 | -0.3 |
| Schmidt | Josh | 30 | RP | 60 | 1 | 75 | 81 | 9 | 46 | 1 | 57 | 5.48 | 5.06 | -3 | -0.3 |
| Venditte | Pat | 27 | RP | 61 | 0 | 82 | 94 | 12 | 35 | 1 | 58 | 5.55 | 4.96 | -4 | -0.4 |
| Isabel | George | 23 | RP | 41 | 0 | 42 | 45 | 7 | 29 | 1 | 33 | 6.03 | 5.80 | -5 | -0.5 |
| Reyes | Yobanny | 24 | RP | 45 | 0 | 48 | 53 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 35 | 5.93 | 5.60 | -5 | -0.5 |
| DeLuca | Evan | 21 | SP | 19 | 19 | 92 | 105 | 14 | 53 | 1 | 62 | 6.07 | 5.48 | -5 | -0.5 |
| Proctor | Scott | 36 | RP | 34 | 0 | 36 | 42 | 7 | 21 | 2 | 28 | 6.38 | 5.92 | -5 | -0.5 |
| Banuelos | Manny | 21 | SP | 26 | 26 | 126 | 147 | 19 | 72 | 1 | 88 | 6.01 | 5.43 | -5 | -0.5 |
| Betances | Dellin | 24 | SP | 16 | 16 | 73 | 82 | 12 | 47 | 0 | 55 | 6.29 | 5.75 | -5 | -0.5 |
| Stoneburner | Graham | 25 | SP | 22 | 21 | 111 | 137 | 19 | 45 | 0 | 64 | 6.10 | 5.48 | -6 | -0.6 |
| Kontos | George | 27 | RP | 30 | 5 | 56 | 65 | 11 | 27 | 0 | 39 | 6.03 | 5.64 | -6 | -0.6 |
WAR for position players does NOT include defense yet.
You can download the full spreadsheet here. I still need to add catcher defense and zone rating/total zone to the other fielders, and playing times are likely to be somewhat off. I need to double-check my MLEs since I usually find a mistake or two so don’t get too hung up on the minor leaguers’ projections just yet.
If I was to build a preliminary depth chart for the 2012 Yankees right now using the players currently under contract, it’d look something like this.
| Player | Pos | PA | BR | Player | Role | IP | R |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 580 | 64 | Sabathia, CC | SP1 | 220 | 87 |
| Granderson, Curtis | CF | 640 | 91 | Nova, Ivan | SP2 | 200 | 109 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 670 | 95 | Hughes, Phil | SP3 | 175 | 94 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 459 | 63 | Burnett, A.J. | SP4 | 185 | 107 |
| Teixeira, Mark | 1B | 675 | 95 | Noesi, Hector | SP5 | 140 | 91 |
| Swisher, Nick | RF | 625 | 81 | Betances, Dellin | SP6 | 50 | 38 |
| Montero, Jesus | DH | 550 | 69 | Banuelos, Manny | SP7 | 50 | 36 |
| Martin, Russell | C | 500 | 55 | Brackman, Andrew | SP8 | 0 | 0 |
| Gardner, Brett | LF | 550 | 63 | Rivera, Mariano | CL | 60 | 16 |
| Nunez, Eduardo | IF | 340 | 36 | Robertson, David | SU | 80 | 26 |
| Cervelli, Francisco | C | 250 | 25 | Soriano, Rafael | SU | 65 | 27 |
| Pena, Ramiro | IF | 50 | 4 | Logan, Boone | MR | 60 | 29 |
| Dickerson, Chris | OF | 300 | 31 | Wade, Cory | MR | 70 | 33 |
| Golson, Greg | OF | 50 | 4 | Chamberlain, Joba | MR | 60 | 30 |
| Laird, Brandon | IF | 50 | 5 | Laffey, Aaron | LR | 25 | 15 |
| Russo, Kevin | UT | 25 | 2 | Warren, Adam | LR | 0 | 0 |
| Romine, Austin | C | 0 | 0 | Phelps, David | LR | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 6314 | 784 | Total | 1440 | 737 |
That’s about an 86 win team, before considering defense. If we assume the 2012 Yankees would be about the same as the 2011 Yankees defensively (around +20) then you’re closer to an 88 win team. It’s not impossible to think some of the young pitchers will be better than CAIRO projects, but the offense looks like it could use a bit more oomph, particularly if we assume we’re only going to get about 450 PA of Alex Rodriguez. They probably need someone who can play 3B and outhit/outglove Eduardo Nunez for at least 40 games.
As far as the pitching staff, the Yankees probably should at least consider bringing Freddy Garcia and/or Bartolo Colon back. Garcia projects better than everyone but CC in the rotation, so I’d like to see the Yankees at least offer him arbitration. If he goes elsewhere, they should get a supplemental first round pick. If he can’t find another team he comes back on a one-year deal, which would be great. 150 innings of Garcia instead of Noesi as a starter makes the Yankees about two wins better.
So the Yankees have some work to do this offseason, IMO.
Monday, October 24, 2011
BBTF: 2012 ZiPS Projections - New York Yankees
While we wait for me to take the Marcels and change the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better, the first set of 2012 Yankee projections are out. With CHONE now being gobbled up by some MLB team, these are probably the best projections available now, and I know Dan Szymborski puts a ton of work into making it so.
I’ll just show the starters here..
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Robinson Cano L 2B 29 .299 .347 .506 156 609 92 182 41 5 25 103 40 76 6 3 121 Mark Teixeira B 1B 32 .263 .359 .495 147 562 88 148 32 1 32 109 76 112 2 1 122 Curtis Granderson L CF 31 .256 .346 .495 147 547 104 140 22 8 31 92 71 143 16 7 118 Alex Rodriguez R 3B 36 .264 .350 .474 108 405 62 107 20 1 21 82 51 89 7 2 115 Jesus Montero R C 22 .271 .333 .486 156 576 79 156 37 3 27 93 55 116 0 0 112 Nick Swisher B RF 31 .253 .358 .456 142 498 76 126 27 1 24 82 80 129 1 2 113 Andruw Jones R LF 35 .234 .335 .455 80 222 31 52 10 0 13 38 32 65 3 1 106 Brett Gardner L LF 28 .260 .352 .370 149 462 80 120 17 8 6 39 61 91 43 10 91 Russell Martin R C 29 .249 .346 .382 123 422 60 105 17 0 13 58 58 76 10 4 92 Jorge Posada B 1B 40 .238 .329 .414 105 324 35 77 15 0 14 47 41 80 1 1 94 Eduardo Nunez R SS 25 .273 .312 .379 141 480 57 131 23 2 8 48 26 64 21 7 81 Derek Jeter R SS 38 .268 .329 .362 129 542 78 145 22 4 7 58 46 84 14 5 82
And some selected pitchers.
Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ CC Sabathia L 31 3.55 17 8 31 31 218.0 211 86 19 63 189 126 Ivan Nova R 25 4.44 13 10 31 30 178.3 189 88 20 60 111 100 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Bartolo Colon R 39 4.77 7 6 20 19 111.3 121 59 17 32 78 93 Phil Hughes R 26 4.84 9 8 25 22 122.7 127 66 18 44 96 92 Freddy Garcia R 35 4.85 9 8 23 22 128.0 143 69 18 40 75 92 Hector Noesi R 25 5.24 6 6 32 14 103.0 120 60 14 35 68 85 A.J. Burnett R 35 5.31 9 10 28 27 159.3 170 94 25 70 128 84 David Phelps R 25 5.40 6 7 23 22 121.7 148 73 18 39 73 83 Manny Banuelos L 21 5.45 7 8 25 25 115.7 128 70 15 65 85 82 Dellin Betances R 24 5.66 5 7 24 24 105.0 111 66 15 72 85 79 Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ David Robertson R 27 3.06 4 2 69 0 64.7 50 22 5 34 87 146 Mariano Rivera R 42 3.12 3 1 53 0 49.0 44 17 4 10 43 143 Rafael Soriano R 32 3.14 4 2 67 0 63.0 50 22 6 21 74 142 Joba Chamberlain R 26 3.88 3 2 46 0 46.3 43 20 5 14 45 115 Boone Logan L 27 3.91 4 2 62 0 48.3 46 21 5 17 48 114 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Pedro Feliciano L 35 4.30 2 1 33 0 23.0 24 11 2 10 18 104 Cory Wade R 29 4.61 4 4 47 0 56.7 62 29 8 13 37 97 Luis Ayala R 34 4.62 4 3 44 0 50.7 56 26 6 19 32 96 Sergio Mitre R 31 5.08 1 1 26 2 44.3 49 25 6 17 22 88
Go to the link to see whatever players I didn’t include here.
Projections are inherently limited, so remember to take these for what they are. They are rough estimates of a player’s current talent level. They are not predictions for what a player is going to do in 2012, and they are not playing time predictions either.
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Yankees.com: With plenty of help, Burnett forces Game 5
DETROIT—The American League Division Series is going to be decided in New York. A.J. Burnett and the Yankees staved off elimination with a 10-1 victory over the Tigers in Game 4 on Tuesday at Comerica Park.
Originally slated to be in New York’s bullpen during this series, Burnett rose to the occasion, delivering 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball to prolong the Yankees’ season for at least another two days.
Two terrific catches by center fielder Curtis Granderson aided the effort, as the former Tigers star patrolled his old stomping grounds with aplomb.
Granderson backtracked and made a leaping grab of a Don Kelly line drive to leave the bases loaded in the first inning, then made a sensational diving grab of Jhonny Peralta’s drive toward left-center with a runner on to end the sixth.
If you were going to judge A.J. Burnett’s start by his BB/K ratio and his BABIP against and his HR/FB rate, you’d probably be correct in saying he didn’t pitch all that well tonight and was at least somewhat lucky.
But if you judge a start by the results and the importance of the situation, Burnett saved his team’s season tonight. After walking the bases loaded in the first inning (one intentional), Burnett appeared to be headed for disaster, but one of the two aforementioned great Granderson catches ended the inning, and Burnett was able to pitch into the sixth while walking just one other batter. Rafael Soriano, Phil Hughes and Boone Logan retired the final 10 Tigers to close things out.
The offense struggled a bit early but by the fifth the team had built up a 4-1 lead and eventually broke things open in the eighth. So now they’ll head home for a day off before a deciding Game 5 on Thursday.
At the very least, we won’t have a repeat of the 2006 ALDS.
In Case You Needed More Reasons To Be Pessimistic About Tonight
I know that batter/pitcher matchups are generally not very informative. The reason for that is what a player has done in 10-20 PA vs. a specific pitcher/hitter doesn’t tell us more than what he’s done against the hundreds or thousands of other players he’s faced. But for the heck of it, I ran the two expected starting lineups for tonight’s lines against the opposing starter to see what they looked like.
| Player | Career PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | PA | Outs | BR |
| Austin Jackson | 3 | .500/.667/2.000 | 5 | 2 | 2.7 |
| Magglio Ordonez | 17 | .214/.353/.500 | 5 | 3 | 0.8 |
| Delmon Young | 18 | .200/.333/.267 | 5 | 4 | 0.4 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 14 | .214/.214/.357 | 5 | 4 | 0.4 |
| Victor Martinez | 34 | .259/.412/.444 | 5 | 3 | 0.7 |
| Alex Avila | 2 | .500/.500/.500 | 5 | 2 | 0.9 |
| Jhonny Peralta | 15 | .231/.267/.538 | 4 | 3 | 0.5 |
| Wilson Betemit | 24 | .261/.292/.391 | 4 | 3 | 0.4 |
| Ramon Santiago | 4 | .250/.250/.250 | 4 | 3 | 0.2 |
| Total | 131 | .246/.336/.439 | 42 | 27 | 7.0 |
| Derek Jeter | 9 | .000/.000/.000 | 5 | 5 | -0.5 |
| Curtis Granderson | 5 | .400/.400/.400 | 5 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Robinson Cano | 11 | .455/.455/.545 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 4 | .250/.250/.250 | 4 | 3 | 0.2 |
| Mark Teixeira | 11 | .100/.182/.100 | 4 | 4 | -0.1 |
| Nick Swisher | 12 | .300/.417/.600 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 |
| Jorge Posada | 11 | .333/.455/.444 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 |
| Russell Martin | 6 | .250/.500/.250 | 4 | 3 | 0.5 |
| Brett Gardner | 10 | .111/.200/.111 | 4 | 3 | 0.0 |
| Total | 79 | .239/.316/.310 | 38 | 27 | 2.9 |
The first two columns are the career PA and AVG/OBP/SLG vs. A.J. Burnett for Detroit, and vs. Rick Porcello for the Yankees. PA, Outs and BR(batting runs) are what would happen if every player did exactly what he’s done so far against those pitchers over the course of 27 outs.
Yeah, Detroit would score 7 runs and the Yankees would score 2.9. That translates to roughly a .846 wpct team playing a .154 wpct team. Since it’s not likely either goes nine the gap shrinks some.
Again, this doesn’t tell us anything useful.
Really.
I swear.
NY Times: Season Starting to Slip Away
For Sabathia, it was a struggle all night, particularly with Gerry Davis’s small strike zone, as he never found a groove to carry him past the sixth inning. For Verlander, it was a night to demonstrate why he will almost certainly win the Cy Young Award.
Although he was not perfect, Verlander was dominant for a long stretch of the game and led the Tigers to a 5-4 victory that gave Detroit a two-games-to-one lead in the best-of-five series.
It’s tough to expect an offense to score four runs against Justin Verlander. That the Yankees were able to do that and still fall short tonight is tough to deal with. Granted, Rafael Soriano gave up the deciding run, but this game was lost because of Sabathia’s ineffectiveness. Yes, the strike zone he had to work with made it much harder to pitch well, but there’s not much you can do about that but deal with it. Unfortunately CC couldn’t.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see A.J. Burnett pitch well enough for the Yankees to beat Rick Porcello tomorrow. I don’t expect it, but it could happen.
Sunday, October 2, 2011
MLB.com: Max effort: Tigers tie up Division Series
Max Scherzer held the Yankees hitless until the sixth inning, and Joaquin Benoit escaped a seventh-inning jam as the Tigers evened the ALDS at one game apiece. Miguel Cabrera ripped a two-run homer, and he and Magglio Ordonez each pounded out three hits.
So now the Yankees have to beat Justin Verlander in Detroit to avoid facing two consecutive elimination games with A.J. Burnett pitching the first one.
At least they won the division.
Saturday, October 1, 2011
NY Times: Yanks Pick Up Where They Left Off: In Weather Delay
Sabathia, who threw 27 pitches before the rain stopped Friday’s game, said he wanted to pitch Sunday, which would still give him the chance to pitch twice in the series.
“Sure, if that means I get the ball as many times as possible,” Sabathia said. “I’m all for it.”
Girardi said he would check with Sabathia, but announced that Freddy Garcia would still pitch Monday’s Game 3 in Detroit. He also left open the possibility that A. J. Burnett would start Game 4 if Sabathia pitches Game 3.
Tigers Manager Jim Leyland said Verlander, who surrendered a run without giving up a hit in the first inning, would pitch Monday. Verlander, 24-5 with a 2.40 earned run average, conceded that he would only be able to pitch once in the series. If there had been no rain and the series went five games, he could have pitched in Game 5.
“Any way you slice it, it looks like I’ll only be able to go once in this series,” Verlander said. “To go on short rest after today is one thing, to then try and start again on short rest in Game 5 might be a little too much.”
One of the advantages the Yankees had in the series was the ability of Sabathia to pitch on three days’ rest, meaning he could have gone in Game 4. That is lost now.
“I don’t want to sit here and say if I don’t pitch, we can’t win,” Sabathia said. “Because we’ve been doing it all year.”
When the Yankees extort the general public to pay for their next stadium, let’s hope it has a retractable roof.
It’s tough to say how this affects things until we know if CC can pitch tomorrow or not. Removing 7 innings of CC and replacing them with 5 innings of A.J. and an inning apiece for Wade and Ayala makes the Yankees a .599 team instead of the .620 team they were heading into yesterday. That’s about a three win difference over a full season. So it’s not a huge deal on paper, but who knows how it’ll play out?
They’ll resume the game tonight at 8:37pm EST, because why would you want to start the game early in case there’s more weather to deal with? It’ll be Doug Fister vs. Ivan Nova, and Game 2 will now be scheduled for Sunday at 3:07pm EST.
Update: I just realized that Burnett pitching game 4 doesn’t mean removing 7 innings of CC. It means removing innings from Nova. Let’s say six. So if you replace six innings of Nova with five innings of A.J. and an inning from a reliever, the drop is much smaller. More in the range of .620 -> .617.
Friday, September 30, 2011
2011 ALDS Preview: Tigers vs. Yankees
The first obstacle in the quest to end the dreaded curse of The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske is the Detroit Tigers.
Seriously, it has been 694 days, 11 hours, 15 minutes, and 45 seconds since the New York Yankees have won a World Series. We have suffered long enough, haven’t we? When will this infernal madness end?
So how big of an obstacle are the Tigers? Let’s take a look.
First, I’ll acknowledge the obvious fact that the Tigers played in and won the AL Central which is probably the weakest division in the AL.
I’ll then say that it doesn’t matter. This is a very good team, and it’s not a stretch to envision them representing the AL in the World Series.
If you read the Rays/Rangers preview you can skip the next paragraph.
I don’t particularly find any series previews that focus on what a team did in the preceding full season of much use. It doesn’t really matter if a team scored 5.2 runs per game and allowed 4.2 runs per game over the preceding six months. Rosters change, injuries happen, players come and go, talent changes, and player and team performance is often subject to fluctuations that are not predictive. What I want to know is how many runs will the team and roster as currently configured score and allow. Because of that, for these previews I’ll be using projections in lieu of 2011 stats. Despite having my own system in CAIRO, I’m going to use the Hardball Times’s Oliver forecasts since I haven’t had the time to re-run CAIRO for this year. Oliver is updated weekly during the season and includes 2011 MLEs for players who saw time in the minors.
The biggest consideration in trying to see how any series may shape up is allocating playing time. So here are depth charts for the two teams, based on the assumption that each team will make 25 outs at the plate over 5 games and that pitchers will combine for 45 innings. Since I didn’t have official postseason rosters while writing parts of these, some of it is guesswork and is subject to change.
Here are the Oliver projections for the Tigers’ postseason position players.
| Name | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Jackson, Austin | CF | 21 | .263/.315/.374 | 14 | 2.24 | .303 | .311 | .300 |
| Kelly, Don | 3B | 21 | .268/.312/.413 | 14 | 2.34 | .314 | .286 | .317 |
| Young, Delmon | LF | 21 | .283/.314/.446 | 14 | 2.52 | .327 | .344 | .320 |
| Cabrera, Miguel | 1B | 21 | .334/.422/.602 | 12 | 4.11 | .435 | .455 | .429 |
| Martinez, Victor | C | 21 | .312/.365/.480 | 13 | 3.08 | .367 | .372 | .364 |
| Peralta, Jhonny | SS | 21 | .270/.324/.426 | 14 | 2.50 | .326 | .339 | .321 |
| Avila, Alex | C | 21 | .270/.351/.456 | 14 | 2.89 | .350 | .327 | .356 |
| Dirks, Andy | RF | 21 | .265/.311/.415 | 14 | 2.45 | .315 | .294 | .318 |
| Santiago, Ramon | 2B | 21 | .276/.319/.394 | 14 | 2.30 | .307 | .304 | .308 |
| Starter Total | 189 | .282/.337/.444 | 125 | 24.42 | .338 | .338 | .338 | |
| Bench | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Betemit, Wilson | IF | 0 | .259/.323/.424 | 0 | 0.00 | .325 | .298 | .334 |
| Ordonez, Magglio | OF | 0 | .282/.344/.412 | 0 | 0.00 | .334 | .352 | .329 |
| Raburn, Ryan | OF | 0 | .268/.317/.465 | 0 | 0.00 | .334 | .349 | .323 |
| Rhymes, Will | 2B | 0 | .272/.326/.361 | 0 | 0.00 | .303 | .283 | .307 |
| Inge, Brandon | 3B | 0 | .230/.304/.384 | 0 | 0.00 | .303 | .328 | .294 |
| Worth, Danny | IF | 0 | .229/.284/.328 | 0 | 0.00 | .272 | .283 | .263 |
| Kelly, Don | UT | 0 | .268/.312/.413 | 0 | 0.00 | .314 | .286 | .317 |
| Santos, Omir | C | 0 | .228/.255/.333 | 0 | 0.00 | .255 | .264 | .250 |
| Bench Total | ||||||||
| Team Total | 189 | .282/.337/.444 | 125 | 24.42 | .338 | .338 | .338 |
Outs: Outs at the plate (assumes 25 outs per 9 innings, calculated as (1 - OBP) times PA + GDP per PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
vs. L/R: Projected wOBA splits vs. LHP/RHP using regressed platoon splits
Rather than guess about how the Tigers may allocate playing time, I just gave the expected starting lineup all 125 outs.
The biggest problem here is Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera’s pretty much the best hitter in the AL. In fact, only one player has been a better hitter than him over the last three years, and that’s Albert Pujols. That projected wOBA of .455 vs. LHP is terrifying for Game 1. The Yankees probably don’t have much room for error facing Verlander, so the Cabrera/Sabathia matchup is probably going to be the one to watch. You can see by the OBP of the rest of the team that keeping people like Austin Jackson, Don Kelly and Delmon Young off the bases in front of Cabrera is going to be imperative.
The Tigers overall don’t have much of a projected platoon split, so the Yankees’ lack of left-handed pitching shouldn’t be a big deal.
I don’t think any Tigers fans would disagree that the Yankees’ lineup is better. Their hopes are going to lay on their pitching staff, and that’s not a bad position to be in.
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Verlander, Justin | SP1 | 14 | 4.8 | 3.11 | 2.89 | 3.05 |
| Fister, Doug | SP2 | 6 | 2.6 | 3.94 | 3.67 | 3.49 |
| Scherzer, Max | SP3 | 6 | 3.1 | 4.61 | 4.10 | 3.98 |
| Porcello, Rick | SP4 | 5 | 2.7 | 4.88 | 4.51 | 4.35 |
| Penny, Brad | SP5 | 0 | 0.0 | 5.43 | 4.85 | 4.65 |
| Starter Total | 31 | 13.3 | 3.85 | 3.54 | 3.52 | |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Valverde, Jose | CL | 3 | 1.3 | 3.90 | 3.61 | 3.72 |
| Benoit, Joaquin | SU | 3 | 1.1 | 3.25 | 3.01 | 3.10 |
| Alburquerque, Al | SU | 2 | 0.9 | 4.20 | 3.89 | 3.71 |
| Coke, Phil | SU | 2 | 1.0 | 4.40 | 4.07 | 3.68 |
| Pauley, David | MR | 2 | 1.1 | 4.76 | 4.41 | 4.44 |
| Perry, Ryan | MR | 1 | 0.5 | 4.61 | 4.27 | 4.12 |
| Schlereth, Daniel | MR | 1 | 0.5 | 4.85 | 4.49 | 4.31 |
| Marte, Luis | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.26 | 4.87 | 4.97 |
| Below, Duane | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.49 | 5.08 | 5.33 |
| LR | 0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Reliever Total | 14 | 6.4 | 4.12 | 3.81 | 3.75 | |
| Team Total | 45 | 19.7 | 3.93 | 3.62 | 3.59 |
RA: Runs allowed per 9, calculated as 1.08*ERA
ERA: Earned runs allowed per 9
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
Justin Verlander’s obviously the man here. He’s been the best pitcher in baseball this year and is a worthy MVP candidate. He’s backed up by mid-season acquisition Doug Fister, who’s been sublime for the Tigers. The Tigers are 9-2 in his 11 starts, and he’s pitched 70.1 innings and allowed just 19 runs. He’s faced 273 batters and walked 5 of them. Seriously. He’s probably not quite that good, but he’d project as the second-best starter on the Yankees.
Jim Leyland has said that he will not pitch Verlander on three days rest, so I’m giving Rick Porcello five innings. I don’t know if things would change if the Tigers go down 2-1. If they did that, they could throw Fister in Game 5 and not use Porcello in the rotation at all.
The Tigers’ defense has been about average overall, not much different than the Yankees. So I’m not going to bother with talking about that.
So, how about the Yankees’ projections?
| Name | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 22 | .306/.363/.416 | 14 | 2.83 | .345 | .369 | .337 |
| Granderson, Curtis | CF | 22 | .259/.342/.496 | 14 | 3.24 | .358 | .314 | .374 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 22 | .312/.359/.511 | 14 | 3.38 | .374 | .358 | .381 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 18 | .289/.367/.527 | 11 | 2.89 | .382 | .389 | .380 |
| Teixeira, Mark | 1B | 22 | .265/.357/.498 | 14 | 3.29 | .369 | .380 | .364 |
| Swisher, Nick | RF | 21 | .271/.364/.475 | 13 | 3.03 | .364 | .375 | .359 |
| Posada, Jorge | DH | 16 | .259/.345/.448 | 10 | 2.12 | .347 | .347 | .347 |
| Martin, Russell | C | 21 | .252/.345/.380 | 14 | 2.39 | .326 | .344 | .320 |
| Gardner, Brett | LF | 19 | .269/.353/.376 | 12 | 2.34 | .326 | .306 | .332 |
| Starter Total | 183 | .277/.355/.460 | 118 | 25.50 | .355 | .354 | .355 | |
| Bench | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Montero, Jesus | DH | 4 | .278/.329/.483 | 3 | 0.54 | .348 | .361 | .340 |
| Jones, Andruw | OF | 2 | .251/.344/.502 | 1 | 0.30 | .363 | .381 | .357 |
| Nunez, Eduardo | IF | 0 | .278/.308/.381 | 0 | 0.00 | .301 | .302 | .300 |
| Chavez, Eric | 3B | 4 | .245/.296/.355 | 3 | 0.38 | .288 | .257 | .300 |
| Romine, Austin | C | 0 | .246/.289/.364 | 0 | 0.00 | .287 | .300 | .283 |
| Dickerson, Chris | OF | 0 | .239/.315/.341 | 0 | 0.00 | .295 | .272 | .299 |
| Pena, Ramiro | IF | 0 | .239/.283/.327 | 0 | 0.00 | .269 | .256 | .273 |
| Cervelli, Francisco | C | 0 | .263/.314/.365 | 0 | 0.00 | .298 | .310 | .293 |
| Bench Total | 10 | .260/.319/.435 | 7 | 1.22 | .327 | .323 | .327 | |
| Team Total | 193 | .276/.353/.458 | 125 | 26.72 | .353 | .352 | .354 |
I’ve relegated Jesus Montero to pinch-hitting status, since DH vs. LHP is effectively a non-position vs. Detroit. I suppose we may see him pinch-hit for Posada if a one of Phil Coke/Daniel Schlereth is on the mound. Or he could get a start if Posada doesn’t look so good. Statistically, Posada’s projection vs. RHP is better than Montero’s so I suppose it’s the logical approach. I’m also not sanguine on A-Rod playing every inning so I’ve given Chavez four PA, and I’m assuming we may see Andruw Jones pinch-hit for TSBG in a late situation vs. a LHP where an XBH would be of additional benefit.
Oliver thinks the Yankees have the best offense in the postseason, and I’d agree with that. Unfortunately, the Yankees have to pitch too.
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Sabathia, CC | SP1 | 14 | 5.8 | 3.70 | 3.43 | 3.28 |
| Nova, Ivan | SP2 | 12 | 6.4 | 4.77 | 4.36 | 4.33 |
| Garcia, Freddy | SP3 | 5 | 2.6 | 4.60 | 4.36 | 4.33 |
| Colon, Bartolo | SP4 | 0 | 0.0 | 4.82 | 4.04 | 3.97 |
| Burnett, A.J. | SP5 | 0 | 0.0 | 5.21 | 4.82 | 4.49 |
| Hughes, Phil | SP6 | 0 | 0.0 | 4.45 | 4.12 | 4.17 |
| Betances, Dellin | SP7 | 0 | 0.0 | 5.36 | 4.96 | 4.83 |
| Brackman, Andrew | SP8 | 0 | 0.0 | 6.80 | 6.30 | 5.88 |
| Starter Total | 31 | 14.7 | 4.26 | 3.94 | 3.86 | |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Rivera, Mariano | CL | 3 | 1.0 | 3.03 | 2.81 | 2.89 |
| Robertson, David | SU | 3 | 1.2 | 3.75 | 3.47 | 3.05 |
| Soriano, Rafael | SU | 2 | 0.8 | 3.61 | 3.34 | 3.64 |
| Logan, Boone | SU | 2 | 1.0 | 4.32 | 4.00 | 3.77 |
| Wade, Cory | MR | 2 | 1.0 | 4.38 | 4.06 | 4.09 |
| Ayala, Luis | MR | 2 | 1.0 | 4.50 | 4.17 | 3.92 |
| Noesi, Hector | MR | 0 | 0.0 | 4.59 | 4.25 | 4.03 |
| Proctor, Scott | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.78 | 5.35 | 5.21 |
| Laffey, Aaron | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.56 | 5.15 | 4.59 |
| Kontos, George | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.38 | 4.98 | 5.02 |
| Reliever Total | 14 | 6.0 | 3.86 | 3.57 | 3.48 | |
| Team Total | 45 | 20.7 | 4.14 | 3.82 | 3.74 |
The assumption here is CC on three days rest. I’m assuming that Burnett and Hughes won’t pitch even though they’re on the roster, but if they do pitch their innings would probably just replace Ayala or Wade’s and it shouldn’t make a big difference.
The Yankees probably have the worst projected rotation in the postseason. CC’s as good as anyone, but after that there’s some concern about Nova and Garcia. I do think that projection is a little bearish on Nova since we have evidence that his new slider has made a meaningful improvement that wouldn’t be captured in a projection system.
Nova pre-slider: 226 BF, 9.3% BB/BF, 11.5% K/BF, 5.19 RA, 4.29 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 4.92 xFIP
Nova post-slider: 278 BF, 7.5% BB/BF, 15.1% K/BF, 3.52 RA, 3.44 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 4.03 xFIP
The Yankee bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this year, and although the projections think most of them pitched above their head they’re probably still better than Detroit’s from top to bottom. So the Yankees should be able to mitigate their slight disadvantage in the rotation by using the relievers aggressively. I can imagine that any David Robertson/Miguel Cabrera battles are going to be must-see baseball.
These depth charts say this.
| Team | Gms | RS | RA | wpct | p162 |
| DET | 5 | 24.4 | 19.7 | .600 | 97 |
| NYA | 5 | 26.7 | 20.7 | .620 | 100 |
If I play the series out 10,000 times in my Monte Carlo simulator I get these odds.
Yankees: 53.9%
Tigers: 46.1%
If the Tigers do decide to use Verlander in Game 4 and Fister in Game 5 they improve to about a .612 wpct/99 win team. Basically, those two teams are equivalent. The Yankees get the slight edge of one extra home game if necessary. In that case the odds look like this.
Yankees: 51.9%
Tigers: 48.1%
Jack Curry’s Projected Postseason 2011 ALDS Yankee Roster
We still don’t have official ALDS rosters, but Jack Curry used the information that’s been released to try and project them. Here’s who Curry sees on the roster.
Position players (14)
Teixeira
Cano
Jeter
Rodriguez
Chavez
Nunez
Gardner
Granderson
Swisher
Jones
Martin
Posada
Montero
Dickerson
Pitchers (11)
Sabathia
Nova
Garcia
Burnett
Rivera
Robertson
Soriano
Logan
Wade
Ayala
Hughes
I like the roster, for the most part. Nunez shouldn’t be playing at all over Cano and Jeter, and if Rodriguez is unable to play they have a better option in Chavez. I’m happy to not see Austin Romine or Raul Valdes on there, as I don’t think either really helps the team that much right now.
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Yankees.com: Burnett helps Yanks burn Red Sox in Game 1
NEW YORK—Nearly three years have passed, but A.J. Burnett has finally done what the Yankees asked when they chased him so passionately as a free agent: Beat the Boston Red Sox.
The right-hander hurled 7 2/3 strong innings on Sunday, defeating the skidding Red Sox, 6-2, in the first game of a day-night doubleheader at Yankee Stadium.
Burnett’s effort ended a string of 10 overall starts against the Red Sox—including nine as a Yankee—dating back to Sept. 19, 2008, taking advantage of a Boston club that continues to fret about their postseason chances.
While Burnett may not have a place in the first-round postseason rotation, where Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia could follow CC Sabathia in the American League Division Series, he offered some optimism for his inclusion in some form.
Burnett’s final line looks pretty good, but he was shaky early. Through four innings he’d thrown 32 strikes and 29 balls. Over the rest of the game he threw 32 strikes and just 12 balls, and ended his day by striking out the last two batters he faced. It’s only natural to wonder how much of his performance can be attributed to pitching against a Boston team that’s probably pressing versus him battling through adversity. I suppose we can say that we’ve seen that when A.J.‘s bad enough, he can make the worst team in MLB look good (the Twins), so this outing has to be viewed positively, although I’m sure it won’t be by some.
If I had to guess, he’s probably earned a shot at the postseason rotation, maybe as the #4 in the ALDS should the Yankees by some miracle be up 2-1. I’m fine with that, provided he’s got a short leash with someone like Bartolo Colon or Phil Hughes shadowing him. There’s no reason to think he’d be appreciably worse than either of them in a single start.
Tampabayrays.com: Four homers help Rays gain ground
ST. PETERSBURG—A home-run barrage coupled with an inspired pitching performance led the Rays to a 5-2 win over the Blue Jays on Sunday afternoon at Tropicana Field.
By winning, the Rays moved to within a half-game of the American League Wild Card-leading Red Sox, who lost to the Yankees in the first game of a day-night double-header on Sunday.
We’re about two hours away from a game that has the potential to be an absolute smorgasbord of schadenfreude.
Monday, September 19, 2011
NY Post: Burnett back on mound for Yankees today
Burnett is 10-11 with a 5.20 ERA in 30 starts and on the bubble for a spot in Joe Girardi’s ALDS rotation. However, since adjusting the hands position, Burnett is 1-0 with a 4.15 ERA. In 17 1/3 innings he has allowed 16 hits, eight walks, fanned 22 and uncorked five wild pitches. His 25 wild pitches easily lead the majors.
I generally caution against taking too much from small sample sizes, but I’m convinced. 5 wild pitches in 17 1/3 innings with his new hands position? The corner has been turned.
Apparently, it’s a day game, so here’s your gameday link:
Twins (59-92) @ Yankees (91-60), Monday, September 19, 2011, 1:05pm
MIN: Scott Diamond (24, LHP, 1-4, 3.94) vs. NYY: A.J. Burnett (34, RHP, 10-11, 5.20)
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
A.J. Before and After
| Dates | fb% | gb% | ld% | bb/bf | k/bf | babip | hr/fb |
| 4/2-8/26 | 33.5% | 47.7% | 18.8% | 10.2% | 19.3% | .294 | 15.4% |
| 9/1-9/13 | 23.9% | 63.0% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 28.2% | .318 | 18.2% |
fb% Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
gb% Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
ld% Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
bb/bf: walks per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
babip: batting average on balls in play
Will Larry Rothschild be inducted into the Kevin Long Hall of Fame after this?
Sample size caveats apply as always. I wouldn’t try and draw any meaningful conclusions from this data, but it’s interesting to look at. Also, FWIW, if you just look at the first two starts in the second split his BB/BF and K/BF are 11.5% and 21.2% respectively. Given Seattle’s alacrity to make pitchers look good, take the three start split with at least some skepticism.
The big thing that jumps out to me is the ground ball increase. He does seem to be pitching down in the zone more, and this is evidence that there’s a tangible change there.
Does this mean he’s going to be better going forward? Probably not. Does it mean he deserves another two starts? Probably.
Yankees.com: Mo’s 600th save preserves win for Burnett
SEATTLE—All was good in Yankee land Tuesday night at Safeco Field.
Not only did the Bronx Bombers keep their American League East lead at four games with a 3-2 win over Seattle, but closer Mariano Rivera made history with his 600th career save, securing New York’s third straight victory in front of 18,306.
It was save No. 41 on the season for Rivera, who needs just one more save to tie Trevor Hoffmann atop the all-time saves list.
Rivera helped starter A.J. Burnett secure his first win since Aug. 15. Burnett’s six-inning outing wasn’t pretty by any means—the righty hit two batters, walked two more and threw two wild pitches—but the 34-year-old fooled the Mariners with his off-speed pitches all night to set a season high with 11 strikeouts.
Good for Mo. It’d be nice to see him tie the record tomorrow and then break it at home. Rivera seems genuinely emotional in the post-game interview with Kim Jones. Probably the most emotional I’ve ever seen him.
Yeah, Seattle isn’t that good, but Burnett pitched well. Will it last? Who knows? But it helped shrink the magic number tonight, and that’s a good thing.
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Yankees.com: Pigs Fly
ANAHEIM—A little sunshine helped the Yankees to a desperately needed victory, as Mark Teixeira saw a key fly ball misplayed by Peter Bourjos en route to a 6-5 victory over the Angels at Angel Stadium on Sunday.
Batting in the seventh inning with New York down by a run, Teixeira sent a drive to center field that popped in and out of Bourjos’ glove as the outfielder squinted into a high blue sky, allowing Brett Gardner and Derek Jeter to charge home with the tying and go-ahead runs.
The miscue helped the Yankees finally get back into their winning mode after having lost four consecutive games in three different cities as they play out a taxing September stretch.
I suppose this means I can watch the replay.
So, in order for the Yankees to win this game they needed:
1) An error on a fairly routine fly ball by one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball. It would have been a game-tying sacrifice fly instead of a go-ahead two-run error.
2) Freddy Garcia pitching out of a bases-loaded, one-out jam in the fifth without allowing a run. That the last out of the inning was a routine grounder to Nun-E that actually got converted into an out makes it all the more remarkable.
3) Rafael Soriano pitching out of a first-and-third, one-out jam to preserve a one-run lead. Yeah, that Rafael Soriano.
4) Six defensive innings at catcher by the worst defensive catcher in the history of pro baseball.
Seems about right to me. I don’t know if the odds of all those things happening are worse than the odds of A.J. Burnett beating the Red Sox, but it’s got to be in the ballpark.
We also saw the debut of the catcher closer. I always knew it took a special pitcher to pitch the 7th, or 8th, or 9th. I had no idea that it took a special catcher to catch those innings. It was a cool deal for Austin Romine though, as he got to make his MLB debut against his brother’s team with his parents in the stands. As far as I can tell from reading accounts of the game, Jesus Montero didn’t embarrass himself behind the plate, so that was good too. The decision to pull Montero after six innings was a curious one, but given the family circumstances for Romine it makes a bit more sense in hindsight.
And I would never have believed it, but as oscar gamble’s afro (the poster, not his actual afro) noted, by winning today the Yankees won the season series with the Angels 5-4. I would never have guessed that.
I still hope we don’t see them again in 2011, or see them laying down for Boston in the ALDS.
Speaking of Boston, the Yankees have finally picked up a game on a team that’s lost something like ten games in a row. Yay!
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Yankees.com: Martin, Yanks double their pleasure vs. Sox
BOSTON—Russell Martin’s two-run double off Daniel Bard highlighted a three-run seventh inning as the Yankees came from behind to defeat the Red Sox, 4-2, on Thursday at Fenway Park.
The victory gave New York its first series victory of the year against Boston, winning for the fourth time in 15 head-to-head meetings and moving within a half-game of the lead in the American League East.
Andruw Jones started the surge by working a one-out, 14-pitch walk from Alfredo Aceves, and top prospect Jesus Montero reached base for the first time as a pitch brushed the front of his jersey.
Martin then connected with a full-count fastball from Bard, belting it up the gap in right-center. He slid into third base on the throw, clapping his hands as the Yankees bench spilled out of the dugout in celebration.
Great AB by Jones to get the rally started against former Yankee Aceves. I guess we can forgive Cashman for letting him go for one night.
A.J. Burnett exceeded all my expectations tonight, but I have little hope that he’s turned a corner. The bullpen had to work hard to get the last 11 outs, but they did it and the Yankees FINALLY win a series against Boston.
I think I need about 15 hours of sleep after that series though.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
NY Post: Hughes gets his chance to stay in Yankees rotation
BOSTON—Phil Hughes’ last performance was rotten and immediately raised questions about him being the odd man out when Yankees manager Joe Girardi goes from six to five starting pitchers following tomorrow night’s game.
And because Hughes’ awareness on issues is very high, he said worrying about what decision Girardi makes isn’t dominating his thought process going into tonight’s start against the Red Sox at Fenway Park.
“It’s easy, I go out and pitch and not think about anything else,” Hughes said of blocking out the hottest topic in the Yankees’ universe other than Alex Rodriguez’s bothersome thumb.
Whenever I say I’d rather see the Yankees’ pitcher pitch well in a loss than see the Yankees win a game 10-9, they get shelled. So I am not going to say that I’d rather see Hughes pitch seven strong innings in a 2-1 loss than see him pitch poorly in a win.
The bar to stay in the rotation is pretty low. Be better than Burnett.
Monday, August 29, 2011
NY Post: Yankees plan to cut to five-man rotation
Speaking before yesterday’s 2-0 loss in the opener of a day-night doubleheader at Camden Yards, Girardi said he will attempt to shave his suspect rotation from six to five arms following Thursday night’s game against the Red Sox in Boston.
“I’m not going to base it on one outing,” Girardi said of judging Bartolo Colon (yesterday’s starter), Freddy Garcia (tonight’s starter) or Burnett (who starts Thursday). “I don’t think it’s fair. The bottom line is that we need to pitch well. If we’re going to win the [AL East], we need to pitch better.”
Don’t worry Joe, I’m pretty sure the decision will be made for you on Thursday.
What I find interesting is the possibility that the people on the bubble are/were Colon, Garcia and Burnett. I don’t know if the author is inferring this or if I’m reading too much into this, but it does seem to indicate faith in Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova.
If I had to pick a four man rotation entering the postseason today, I’d probably go CC/Colon/Nova/one of Hughes or Garcia. Actually, I’d let CC opt out and then go Colon/Nova/Garcia/Hughes.
We’ll see how that looks a month from now if by some miracle the Yankees win the wild card.
Sunday, August 28, 2011
NY Post: Yankees storming mad over Orioles game rescheduling
A person with knowledge of the situation said the Yankees hierarchy of Cashman, team president Randy Levine and owner Hal Steinbrenner learned at 5 p.m. Friday that the Orioles had decided to postpone both games of yesterday’s scheduled doubleheader because of the Hurricane Irene forecast. Granderson said he found out about it hours later when it was announced during Friday’s game at Camden Yards.
“We have not agreed to play Sept. 8,” Girardi said.
The person with knowledge of the situation said MLB and the MLBPA should have asked the Yankees about the decision. But both the person and Granderson admitted that fighting the rescheduling would not be easy. Michael Weiner, head of the union, declined to comment yesterday.
If it continues to look like a game that won’t matter, the Yankees should call up everyone on the 40 man roster and send this team to Baltimore on September 8.
SP: A.J.
Bullpen: Lance Pendleton, Raul Valdes
C: Cervelli
1B: Andruw Jones
2B: Aaron Laffey
3B: Brandon Laird
SS: Ryan Pope
LF: Chris Dickerson
CF: Greg Golson
RF: Justin Maxwell
DH: Melky Mesa
Make Burnett pitch all eight innings, just keep a couple of arms in the bullpen in case he gets ejected.
The best case scenario at this point seems to be they would move this game to ‘played if necessary’ status. Whether that’s a realistic option or not, I have no idea.
Saturday, August 27, 2011
A.J. Not Staying Low
A few days ago, we looked at A.J. Burnett's numbers broken down by zone. He does much better, as most pitchers do, when keeping it down in the zone. In fact, this season he has the best overall opposing batting average and slugging percentage on pitches low in the zone.
His pitch location from yesterday was mostly middle and up:
Of the 116 pitches that A.J. Burnett threw last night, just 15 were located in the lower part of the zone. Not surprisingly, three of his five strikeouts came on pitches down in the zone, and he gave up just one hit in seven plate appearances decided on a low pitch. And basically everything up was hammered:
If only Irene could have come a day earlier....
All heat maps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
NY Times: One Lost Day Follows Another
BALTIMORE — In the wake of another disastrous outing by A. J. Burnett on Friday night, and with a compressed schedule of games coming up because of Hurricane Irene, Yankees Manager Joe Girardi was asked if Burnett would still make his next scheduled start against the hard-hitting Boston Red Sox next week.
After surrendering nine runs in five innings during Friday’s 12-5 loss to the Baltimore Orioles, Burnett is now the undisputed worst starter in the six-man rotation. Ordinarily the Yankees would be looking to whittle that rotation from six to five men, but with games piling up over the next few days and weeks, even Burnett will get more chances, Girardi said.
“With all these doubleheaders, we’ve got to play games,” he said. “So we need a six-man.”
If Burnett does get a start against Boston, it wouldn’t shock me to see him allow 10 runs without retiring a batter.
Since 1919, there have been 6,853 seasons where a pitcher made at least 25 starts in a season.
Of those 6853 seasons, there have been 66 where a pitcher made 8 quality starts or less. Assuming Burnett doesn’t make another quality start this year(an assumption I’d bet a lot of money on), he’ll be the 67th.
In Burnett’s defense, here’s a list of pitchers who I’d rather see Burnett starting a game over.
2009 Chien-Ming Wang.
2011 Pre-DL Phil Hughes.
I seriously would prefer to see Kei Igawa pitching over Burnett right now.
I’m generally not one who likes to blame the pitcher for the play behind him, but I don’t see how the team can’t be frustrated when they’re down by six runs in the second inning to a crappy team. I don’t know if that frustration is to blame for their subsequent sloppy play, but it wouldn’t surprise me.
Let’s make this as simple as possible.
| Player | Team | IP | TBF | H | R | ER | ERA | FIP |
| A.J. Burnett | Yankees | 347.2 | 1538 | 364 | 219 | 204 | 5.28 | 4.81 |
| John Lackey | Red Sox | 344.1 | 1525 | 393 | 203 | 191 | 4.99 | 4.17 |
| James Shields | Rays | 404.1 | 1689 | 407 | 199 | 183 | 4.07 | 3.80 |
| Joe Saunders | - - - | 368.1 | 1563 | 397 | 197 | 174 | 4.25 | 4.66 |
| Ryan Dempster | Cubs | 375.2 | 1605 | 360 | 195 | 174 | 4.17 | 3.87 |
| Carl Pavano | Twins | 395.1 | 1655 | 432 | 192 | 180 | 4.1 | 4.07 |
| Nick Blackburn | Twins | 309.1 | 1362 | 377 | 192 | 171 | 4.98 | 4.95 |
| Bronson Arroyo | Reds | 377 | 1572 | 370 | 191 | 183 | 4.37 | 4.97 |
| Paul Maholm | Pirates | 347.2 | 1527 | 388 | 191 | 171 | 4.43 | 3.99 |
| Jason Hammel | Rockies | 325.2 | 1425 | 362 | 191 | 180 | 4.97 | 4.26 |
A pitcher’s job is to prevent the other team from scoring. Burnett has allowed more runs than every other pitcher in MLB over the past two seasons.
Put that in your objective pipe and smoke it.
We’re not just talking about a couple of bad months. We’re talking about running the guy who’s been the worst starting in pitcher in MLB(who’s managed to keep his job) over the last two years out there every fifth day with little evidence that it’s ever going to change.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Breaking Burnett Down by Zone Location
So now A.J. Burnett may really lose his spot in the Yankees rotation. I wanted to see if there was anything he's done this season that may provide hope that he could bounce back. When I broke down the zone location to up, middle and down, I found something pretty interesting.
First, the bad:
Basically the middle of the strike zone includes any pitch that hits the middle seven inches of the zone (which is normalized depending on the height of the batter). So anything above the top of that seven inch mark (whether inside or outside the actual strike zone) is designated as 'up'. The same applies for pitches down in the zone which you will see further down in the post.
This season, A.J. ranks in the bottom 21% of the league in opposing batting average (.271) on pitches up (min. 500 pitches thrown in that zone). The league average is .240. His opponent slugging percentage of .474 ranks in the bottom 11% of the league and is nearly 100 points worse than the league average. Sadly, this is actually an improvement over last season when he ranked in the bottom 5 and 3 percent of the league in opponent average (.318) and slugging (.588) respectively.
When throwing over the middle of the zone, Burnett has not only been flat out terrible, he's basically been the worst pitcher in the league. He ranks second to last in opponent batting average (.379), and dead last in opponent slugging percentage (.707), opponent wOBA (.452), and HR/FB (23.3%).
Yet, here's how he's done on pitches down in the zone:
As bad as A.J. Burnett has been throwing middle and up, he's been that awesome on pitches down. Batters are hitting just .117 against him in 259 plate appearances decided on a low pitch (1162 total pitches), which is the best in baseball this season. Opponents are also slugging just .157 on low pitches, which also leads the league.
Most of this success on low pitches is probably due to his knuckle curve, which has been by far his best pitch this season (and has accounted for 50.9% of his low pitches). Opponents have a .188 wOBA versus his curve this season compared to a .407 wOBA against all of his other pitches. Burnett obviously can't rely on just one pitch, and we're seeing that quite clearly this season. The decline of his fastball is probably the biggest culprit here, as hitters are putting up a .439 wOBA against it, ranking him in the bottom 1% of the league (Only Edinson Volquez and Kyle Davies have been worse with their fastballs). That number has been increasing every year since PitchFX data began keeping track (2008: .364, 2009: .385, 2010: .403).
His stuff is simply getting worse. Maybe moving him to the bullpen will help him regain something, but is it best for a Yankees pen that has been exceptionally good this year?
All heat maps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
TGS NY: A.J. Burnett spot in question
NEW YORK—With A.J. Burnett having his “typical terrible August,” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said that the pitcher’s five-year, $82.5 million contract will not prevent him from being dropped from the rotation.
“No, money is never going to be a factor,” Cashman told ESPNNewYork.com.
Cashman reiterated his staunch defense of Burnett from a little more than a week ago. However, a week from now, barring injury, the Yankees will have to make a decision about paring their rotation from six pitchers to five, and Burnett is on the bubble.
...
In the second half of this season, he is 1-3 with a 7.61 ERA in seven starts. Overall, he is 9-10 with a 4.96 ERA. Cashman added that Burnett “is not our No. 2 starter,” but hasn’t pitched poorly enough to be treated like “Oliver Perez.”
Sounds like someone spiked the objective pipe with something.
Sunday, August 21, 2011
A Graphical Display of Ugly
Saturday, August 20, 2011
A.J. Burnett Makes History
There have been 15 regular season perfect games in MLB history. There had been four games where a starting pitcher did not pitch 2 complete innings, but did throw two wild pitches, did walk at least three batters, and allowed seven or more runs.
Now there have been five such games.
Congrats A.J.!
Monday, August 15, 2011
Yankees.com: Jeter backs A.J., lifting Yanks into tie for first
KANSAS CITY—Derek Jeter stood near the base of the mound at Kauffman Stadium on Monday, his hand on A.J. Burnett’s shoulder as he offered a few words of encouragement before the pitcher headed for the dugout.
What Burnett may have appreciated even more, though, was Jeter’s two-run triple in the sixth inning, lifting the embattled hurler to his first August win as a member of the Yankees in a 7-4 victory over the Royals. The win pulled New York into a first-place tie with the idle Boston Red Sox in the American League East.
The only difference between Burnett today and Burnett last time out is that his team scored him more runs. Burnett again failed to give the team a quality start (at least 6 IP, 3 or fewer runs allowed), something he’s managed in only eight of his 25 starts. For comparison’s sake:
| Pitcher | GS | QS ? | QS% |
| Freddy Garcia | 20 | 14 | 70% |
| CC Sabathia* | 26 | 16 | 62% |
| Bartolo Colon | 18 | 11 | 61% |
| Ivan Nova | 19 | 11 | 58% |
| Phil Hughes | 9 | 4 | 44% |
| A.J. Burnett | 25 | 8 | 32% |
| Brian Gordon | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| League Average | 54% | ||
| Team Total | 119 | 64 | 54% |
Other than that, nice win. They got some positive offensive contributions from everyone except Eric Chavez, and the pen pitched well aside from one person. It was also good to see signs that WWWMW™ is possibly over as well.
TGS NY: Cashman: ‘Smoke the objective pipe’
When it comes to A.J. Burnett, Brian Cashman encourages everyone to “smoke the objective pipe.”
In the eyes of many, Burnett (8-9, 4.60 ERA) hasn’t pitched well enough to keep his spot in the rotation. But Cashman sees things a bit differently. He thinks everything has been overblown.
Saturday, August 13, 2011
NY Times: Cashman Defends High-Priced Burnett’s Pitching
Cashman obliged by launching into a spirited defense of A. J. Burnett, the high-priced, often disappointing starter for the Yankees who lately has found himself nominated to be the odd man out in a rotation that is about to go from six pitchers to five.
Those nominations are being made by members of the news media and sports talk radio callers, and Cashman, who over the last year has become increasingly blunt in his comments, made it clear he was not amused by any of it.
“He’s being treated differently publicly because he has money attached,” said Cashman, who spiced his remarks with a profanity. “So forgive him for saying yes to a contract. If you want to blame someone for his contract, blame me. But the man can still pitch.”
I realize it’s Cashman’s job to defend his players. But I say bullshit. I don’t think it’s the contract. It’s partially the chronic underachiever thing, where he’s always seemed to have the stuff to better than he was. Now that stuff has diminished and he hasn’t learned to compensate for it. It’s also partially the disaster potential in every inning no matter how well he’s pitched to that point. You just need to look at his last start for an example of that.
Seriously, does anyone really care about how much Burnett’s making? The only starter you can make a case for Burnett over in terms of results this year is Phil Hughes, and that’s because Hughes has been hurt and is working his way back. If Hughes can follow up his last start with a couple of good outings it gets that much harder to defend keeping Burnett in the rotation.
One wonders if the team would willingly piss away a chance in a postseason series by stubbornly starting Burnett when there are clearly better options. It wouldn’t surprise me.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
CBS New York: With Ivan Nova’s Spot Secured, Who’s The Odd Man Out In Yankees’ Rotation?
“I think he took it as a challenge and said, ‘This is going to be the last time you send me down,’” said Girardi.
But who’s the odd man out? CC Sabathia admitted recently that he’s no fan of the six-man rotation, and Girardi said last night that the team has to “eventually get down to five.”
“Sometimes it’s not easy to just move one piece and say, ‘That’s it.’ Because you’ve got to worry about how it affects everything you do,” Girardi said. “Some guys are maybe a little more suited, if you do decide to move someone to the ‘pen, than others. Those are all things we have to take into account.”
The best move might be to put erratic starter A.J. Burnett in the bullpen. Or Phil Hughes, no stranger to relief duty, who is coming off an early-season “dead arm” period.
How the Yankees handle this will be pretty interesting. It’s a tossup as to whether Hughes or Burnett is the better choice for fifth starter right now, but I think the Yankees need to look beyond that and think about what will benefit them more in the long-term. To me that says put Hughes in the rotation. Even if he may be worse than Burnett right now over the rest of the season, he’s the better bet to be a valuable starter to the Yankees in 2012 and 2013.
Maybe Burnett would thrive in a role where he could come in and throw gas for an inning or two.
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Yankees.com: Yankees run themselves out of rally after Mo falters
NEW YORK—Bobby Abreu crushed his second homer of the night, a two-run blast in the ninth inning off Mariano Rivera, to help the Angels rally for a 6-4 victory over the Yankees on Tuesday.
Abreu’s sixth shot of the year came after the Yankees had covered for a late skid by starter A.J. Burnett, mounting a three-run rally in the seventh inning that spoiled a strong start by Angels starter Dan Haren.
In the ninth, Rivera recorded the first two outs by firing to second base on a sacrifice bunt and inducing a groundout, but Abreu connected with Erick Aybar aboard for the crushing blow.
The Yankees mounted a rally against Jordan Walden in the bottom of the ninth, but Curtis Granderson was picked off first base to end the game with Eduardo Nunez on third and Mark Teixeira at the plate.
When the Yankees were down 4-1 in the 7th, it seemed like just another run of the mill loss. A bad start by A.J. Burnett and the offense not doing enough to compensate, but one that’d be easily forgotten. Instead, the Yankees rallied to tie it, then saw Mariano Rivera unable to preserve a tie after blowing a save in his last appearance, still managing to get the tying run on base with their cleanup hitter up, only to have Granderson get picked off.
If you could pin this one on Burnett, we’d have a nice easy scapegoat. Since we now have to blame Rivera and Granderson too, it’s a little harder.
It really is amazing the way this team rolls over for the Angels. It’s almost as bad as the way the Angels roll over for Boston.
Friday, August 5, 2011
The Monkey On Their Backs
By any reasonable viewpoint, the Yankees have had a great year in 2011. They lead MLB in run differential/Pythagorean record, are tied for the top in the best division in baseball and have gotten a lot of good performances from unexpected places. In particular, a pitching staff that was touted as the team’s Achilles’ heel all offseason has been a legitimate strength.
Despite all that, it seems like a lot of us haven’t fully embraced the good things that this team has done, and I think it really just comes down to one thing. This team has gotten its ass handed to it by Boston every time they’ve played this year.
So who to blame? Here are the splits for the Yankees’ hitters vs. Boston and vice versa.
| Player | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | IBB | HBP | K | SB | CS | BA | OBA | SPct | wOBA | BR |
| Derek Jeter | 44 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | .200 | .273 | .225 | .238 | 1.9 |
| Curtis Granderson | 41 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 1 | .229 | .341 | .571 | .383 | 6.6 |
| Mark Teixeira | 38 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | .121 | .211 | .121 | .171 | 0.2 |
| Nick Swisher | 36 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .188 | .278 | .281 | .258 | 2.7 |
| Robinson Cano | 36 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | .281 | .361 | .500 | .374 | 5.8 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 36 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | .194 | .306 | .419 | .319 | 4.4 |
| Brett Gardner | 35 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | .167 | .286 | .267 | .260 | 2.3 |
| Russell Martin | 27 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .227 | .370 | .636 | .419 | 5.1 |
| Jorge Posada | 20 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .400 | .333 | .342 | 2.3 |
| Andruw Jones | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | .182 | .182 | .455 | .259 | 1.0 |
| Eric Chavez | 8 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .750 | .535 | 2.2 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .571 | .667 | .537 | 1.8 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .286 | .167 | .231 | 0.3 |
| Chris Dickerson | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.240 | 0.9 |
| Total | 347 | 37 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 31 | 1 | 10 | 78 | 6 | 3 | .223 | .314 | .384 | .311 | 37.5 |
| Player | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | IBB | HBP | K | SB | CS | BA | OBA | SPct | wOBA | BR |
| Carl Crawford | 40 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .125 | .125 | .200 | .139 | -0.2 |
| David Ortiz | 42 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .324 | .405 | .676 | .451 | 8.8 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 38 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .371 | .421 | .571 | .430 | 7.6 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 44 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .235 | .386 | .500 | .382 | 6.6 |
| Kevin Youkilis | 42 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | .242 | .381 | .424 | .359 | 5.7 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 39 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .500 | .605 | .733 | .556 | 10.9 |
| J.D. Drew | 33 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .280 | .424 | .400 | .376 | 4.6 |
| Marco Scutaro | 22 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .300 | .364 | .450 | .357 | 3.3 |
| Jed Lowrie | 21 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .316 | .333 | .421 | .322 | 2.3 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 20 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .400 | .556 | .412 | 3.6 |
| Jason Varitek | 18 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .333 | .200 | .270 | 1.2 |
| Mike Cameron | 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .273 | .333 | .364 | .289 | 1.2 |
| Total | 372 | 60 | 92 | 18 | 2 | 12 | 59 | 44 | 6 | 5 | 58 | 6 | 1 | .290 | .379 | .473 | .372 | 55.7 |
wOBA: weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs.
Mark Teixeira has been abysmal vs. Boston this year with some support from Derek Jeter, Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner.
Here’s a “fun” stat for you. Dustin Pedroia has provided more offense in 39 PA versus the Yankees than Jeter, Teixeira, Swisher, Gardner and Jorge Posada have provided in 173 PA against Boston (10.9 BR to 9.4 BR). Maybe fun is not the right word.
Boston’s outscored the Yankees at close to a 2-1 rate and if you compare the BR to the actual runs there’s not a lot of evidence of good or bad luck in there.
Two other things I found interesting aggravating are the HBP and IBB columns.
Well, maybe looking at the pitching will cheer us up.
| Player | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | HBP | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Bartolo Colon | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 4.35 | 2.61 | 3.88 |
| Jeff Marquez | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 2.20 |
| Phil Hughes | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | 27.00 | 12.70 |
| Boone Logan | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 3.41 |
| Lance Pendleton | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16.20 | 16.20 | 20.00 |
| Hector Noesi | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.53 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12.27 | 12.27 | 9.75 |
| Ivan Nova | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8.31 | 8.31 | 4.58 |
| Luis Ayala | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.83 |
| Rafael Soriano | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.20 |
| Freddy Garcia | 0 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 11.25 | 10.13 | 9.20 |
| Mariano Rivera | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.20 |
| A.J. Burnett | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12.71 | 11.12 | 6.55 |
| CC Sabathia | 0 | 3 | 19 | 24 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 3 | 6.16 | 6.16 | 4.20 |
| David Robertson | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4.15 | 2.08 | 3.43 |
| Total | 1 | 8 | 79 | 92 | 60 | 55 | 12 | 44 | 58 | 5 | 6.84 | 6.27 | 5.57 |
| Player | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | HBP | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Dan Wheeler | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 1.20 |
| Daniel Bard | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2.08 | 2.08 | 4.12 |
| Jonathan Papelbon | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 0.60 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 4.91 | 3.68 | 6.47 |
| Jon Lester | 2 | 0 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.37 |
| Rich Hill | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| Matt Albers | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.70 |
| Clay Buchholz | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 5.91 | 5.06 | 5.08 |
| John Lackey | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10.80 | 10.80 | 6.80 |
| Felix Doubront | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13.50 | 13.50 | 11.45 |
| Josh Beckett | 3 | 0 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 4 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 2.72 |
| Tim Wakefield | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 6.14 | 6.14 | 5.52 |
| Bobby Jenks | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.20 |
| Total | 8 | 1 | 81 | 68 | 37 | 35 | 10 | 31 | 78 | 10 | 4.11 | 3.89 | 4.40 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
That didn’t really help.
It would have been nice to have Alex Rodriguez back for this series, although maybe Eric Chavez can stay healthy through Sunday (assuming he’s off tonight with Jon Lester pitching).
Pitching matchups for the weekend are Colon vs. Lester tonight, CC vs. Lackey tomorrow, and Garcia vs. Beckett on Sunday. So the Yankees are probably slight underdogs tonight, favorites tomorrow, and strong underdogs Sunday. Logic says we should be happy if they take one of the three, and that’s the most likely scenario, but after losing 8 of 9 to Boston, including all 6 at home, I won’t be happy with anything less than a sweep.
I suppose I could settle for a 2-1 series win.
Seriously though, barring catastrophe both of these teams will be in the postseason, so I suppose we shouldn’t get that worked up about whatever happens here.
Thursday, August 4, 2011
The A.J. Thing
After a 2010 that will be remembered as one of the worst seasons by a Yankee starter ever, the hope was that A.J. Burnett would rebound enough to justify the remaining three years on his contract, or at least make them look like less of an anchor.
Burnett entered last night with a respectable 4.23 ERA, but the truth he hasn’t really pitched that well this year. Before last night’s debacle, Here’s how Burnett’s performance compared to his average projection pro-rated to his 138 innings pitched.
| G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | BABIP | |
| Actual | 22 | 138 | 116 | 71 | 65 | 20 | 63 | 120 | 4.62 | 4.23 | 4.86 | .255 |
| Avg Projection | 23 | 138 | 140 | 78 | 72 | 17 | 57 | 119 | 5.08 | 4.70 | 4.55 | .304 |
RA/ERA: Runs/Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play
He’d been better as far as runs allowed, but the peripheral stats didn’t support it, and that’s even ignoring the fact that offense in MLB is down in general. He’d allowed more HRs and walks than projected and his K rate was essentially the same. The only reason he had a better RA/ERA than projected was because he’d allowed a BABIP against of .255 compared to his projected .304. His career BABIP against is .288 and his BABIP in 2008-2010 was around .309. So it was probably a safe bet that a correction was coming, and it started last night.
Here’s how his performance now compares to his pro-rated projection including last night.
| G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | BABIP | |
| Actual | 23 | 143 | 129 | 78 | 72 | 21 | 63 | 123 | 4.92 | 4.54 | 4.86 | .268 |
| pProjection | 24 | 143 | 145 | 80 | 75 | 18 | 59 | 123 | 5.08 | 4.70 | 4.55 | .304 |
To be fair to Burnett, he didn’t get the win last night because he gave up 13 hits in 4.1 innings. He didn’t walk anyone, which would have been infuriating with a 13-1 lead. He faced 26 batters and allowed six fly balls, 10 ground balls and six line drives. He allowed one HR, and struck out three. The BABIP against him last night was .571. That doesn’t absolve him of blame, but if we’re going to take away his credit for suppressing BABIP entering last night then we should at least note it when we’re trying to blame him for last night.
One game doesn’t change the big picture. Burnett hasn’t really pitched well this year, and at this point I don’t think there’s any question that he’s the starter most of us would like to see pulled from the rotation. You can make the case that the Yankees have eight or nine pitchers you’d rather see starting than Burnett depending on what you think of Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, David Phelps, D.J. Mitchell and/or Manny Banuelos.
Unfortunately, the Yankees are still committed to Burnett for the next two years and two months. What I don’t know is if they’d consider pulling Burnett from the rotation the way they did with Mike Mussina in 2007. At least he won’t be asked to pitch against Boston this weekend.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Yankees.com: Yankees erupt early, pour it on late
CHICAGO—A.J. Burnett’s struggles made it interesting, but the Yankees’ offense eventually made it a blowout.
Behind their fourth double-digit-scoring game in less than two weeks, the Yankees won their sixth straight game at U.S. Cellular Field on Wednesday night, dismantling the White Sox by a score of 18-7.
Their offensive onslaught saw Eric Chavez hit his first home run since May 11 of last year, Derek Jeter tie his career high with five hits, Mark Teixeira hit his first triple since 2009 and the first three hitters of the Yankees’ lineup combine to go 12-for-17 with 10 runs and seven RBIs.
We’ll have to wait at least one more start for Burnett’s first win as a Yankee in August.
Burnett joined a list of three other Yankee pitchers who allowed at least 13 hits while not completing five innings. So congratulations to him.
In happier news, since returning from the DL on July 4, Derek Jeter’s hitting .333/.380/.495.
Friday, July 29, 2011
WSJ: The Eighth Inning Sets Up a Dilemma
But Soriano made two rehab appearances earlier this week and appears poised to return to the Yankees on Friday. So Girardi soon will have to answer a question he’s been evading for a while: Who will pitch the eighth inning?
Nothing like a contrived controversy to fill column space.
The entire notion of an eighth inning guy is stupid. David Robertson’s not being demoted because he’ll no longer be starting the eighth inning in games that the Yankees are leading. He’s not being disrespected. His fine work so far this season is not being ignored.
Instead, when A.J. Burnett walks the bases loaded in the seventh inning, instead of trying to get three outs with him to get the game to Robertson in the eighth, you can bring in Robertson in the seventh. Kind of like what happened with CC Sabathia in his last start, but an inning sooner. That situation is more likely to impact the result of the game than the situation with the bases empty starting the eighth.
They really should create a stat called pre-saves, for any pitchers who pitch the eighth inning while meeting the requirements for a save. It’s a shame that eighth inning guys get lumped in with all the other generic middle relievers earning holds. Everyone knows the three hardest outs to get in the game are the ones in the eighth.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
NY Post: A-Rod on schedule; Chavez ready to rejoin Yankees
The Yankees may still need pitching—especially as far as a left-handed reliever is concerned—but they won’t feel utterly compelled to go find another bat before the trading deadline.
Not when they expect to have Alex Rodriguez back by the second week of August following the possible activation of Eric Chavez as soon as today.
Rodriguez, who underwent right knee surgery just over two weeks, is right on schedule for a return that originally was pegged at 4-6 weeks. Rodriguez is showing all signs of making the sooner rather than later return.
“I’ve had some communication on what he does. He sends me usually what he does every day. He’s feeling pretty good. He’s moving along,” manager Joe Girardi said last night. “I can’t tell you when we’ll see him. I don’t have that date. I think our doctors are discussing . . . when we might see him but he’s progressing fine. He’s on schedule.”
General manager Brian Cashman told ESPN Sunday night that he was eying “maybe the second week of August . . . That’s just us being conservative. I think we can push it and get him back sooner, but why? Our offense is strong.”
Eh, I don’t see the sense in trading for another lefty reliever. J.C. Romero should be capable as a second lefty if they really need one, and Boone Logan appears to have found whatever it was that worked for him last year. In theory, a healthy Chavez fixes the need for a bat and a better defensive 3B, but the notion of a healthy Chavez is probably not one we should get used to.
Obviously, the starting rotation is a concern in the postseason, because the fall off after CC Sabathia is pretty steep, but if the Yankees want to upgrade there they have to get someone better than each of Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Ivan Nova, A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes. People that fit that description are out there, but they’re not cheap.
I don’t suppose Andy Pettitte’s getting frisky?
Monday, July 18, 2011
Yankees.com: Walks come in handy as Yanks edge Rays
ST. PETERSBURG—Russell Martin drew a two-out bases-loaded walk in the ninth to plate Curtis Granderson, giving the Yankees a 5-4 win over the Rays in the series opener from Tropicana Field on Monday night.
Forced into action after a 16-inning Sunday night game, Alex Torres made his Major League debut in a 4-4 game in the top of the ninth. With Granderson on third and two outs, Torres intentionally walked Nick Swisher to pitch to Andruw Jones, but walked Jones to load the bases.
I guess we should give the Red Sox an assist for forcing the Rays to use a pitcher making his MLB debut in the ninth inning of a tie game. Thanks fellas!
After A.J. Burnett’s pitching and glove put the Yankees in a 4-1 hole after two innings it looked like one of those nights. A late rally in the 8th tied the game and David Robertson and Mariano Rivera retired the final six Rays to bat while the Yankees took advantage of Joe Maddon’s largess to tally the winning run in the ninth.
As an aside, after starting the year being caught stealing 6 times in 11 attempts, Brett Gardner’s now stolen successfully in 22 of his last 26 attempts. Maybe he doesn’t need those remedial base running lessons after all.
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Probable Pitchers: Rays at Yankees, July 7 - 10
Thursday, July 7, 7:05 PM ET
Jeff Niemann (46.3 IP, 5.63 RA, 4.60 FIP) vs. Bartolo Colon (73.0 IP, 2.84 RA, 3.50 FIP)
Friday, July 8, 7:05 PM ET
Jeremy Hellickson (103.7 IP, 3.39 RA, 4.55 FIP) vs. Freddy Garcia (91.0 IP, 3.36 RA, 4.21 FIP)
Saturday, July 9, 1:05 PM ET
David Price (124.0 IP, 3.63 RA, 2.98 FIP) vs. A.J. Burnett (113.7 IP, 4.51 RA, 4.71 FIP)
Sunday, July 10, 1:05 PM ET
James Shields (134.7 IP, 2.74 RA, 3.32 FIP) vs. CC Sabathia (136.7 IP, 3.36 RA, 2.82 FIP)
Saturday looks like a guaranteed loss, and Sunday looks like a coin flip, so let’s hope the Yankees can steal the first two.
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
NJ.com: Yankees’ Mariano Rivera sits out, leaving A.J. Burnett to go long
Girardi said he would have considered leaving Burnett in the game as late as the eighth inning. Set-up man David Robertson would have been the Yankees’ closer had they taken a lead into the ninth.
I fortunately didn’t get to see most of the game, but all this blaming of Burnett seems misplaced to me. I’d blame Gardner for not calling off A-Rod on the foul pop up that would have likely let Burnett escape the inning unscathed, and Girardi for his steadfast insistence on getting “length” from Burnett. Burnett was put in a position to fail by Girardi, and Girardi’s the one to blame for that.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Yankees.com: Yanks’ key homers back strong Burnett
Russell Martin’s first home run in more than a month served as the big blow behind A.J. Burnett’s effort on Wednesday, helping the Yankees to a 5-2 victory over the Brewers at Yankee Stadium.
The first-year Bombers backstop snapped a homerless streak of 68 at-bats by clearing the left-field wall in the fourth inning off Milwaukee starter Shaun Marcum, capping a four-run New York frame.
Jorge Posada added a sixth-inning homer that was credited after umpires used replay to overturn the original call, a brief interruption as the Yankees rolled to their 14th victory in 18 games.
Burnett bobbed and weaved through trouble all night, his effort receiving the assistance of double-play balls, including one turned on a great catch by center fielder Curtis Granderson.
A nice win on a rare day where the Yankees managed to pick up ground on both Tampa Bay and Boston.
And rilkefan can rejoice in the triumphant return of Sergio Mitre.
Monday, June 13, 2011
Yanks held in check, lose Jeter in defeat
NEW YORK—A.J. Burnett gave up a fourth-inning RBI single, the only dent in a sharp pitchers’ duel, but it may not have been the most costly event in a 1-0 Yankees loss to the Indians on Monday.
Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter led off the game with a single, his 2,994th career hit, but the captain’s chase to become the 28th member of the 3,000-hit club may have been dealt a blow by a sore right calf.
I’m just tired of hearing about Jeter’s quest for hit # 3000, and now we have to hear about it for even longer. Hopefully he won’t miss too much time, because I have a feeling that the more we see Eduardo Nunez the more we’ll miss Jeter.
Friday, June 10, 2011
Yahoo: Joba’s injury leaves dark cloud over Yankees
The AL East has become the game’s most competitive division again with Toronto and Baltimore surging. Suddenly, the doomsday scenario where the Yankees tumble toward last place rather than surge for a division title isn’t so implausible.
Almost as if to prove the Yankees are indeed still the Yankees, Cashman looked toward the dugout of the Red Sox – a team that had already beaten his club seven out of eight times this year – and said: “We are certainly capable of beating those guys that’s for sure.”
Yeah Cashman, they have sure shown that they’re capable of beating Boston this year.
I can’t think of a series that was as flat out putrid as this one. I just hope that the Yankees resist the urge to make more stupid moves to shore up the bullpen, since they’ve done such a crappy job of putting one together and it’s done nothing but cost them money and wins and draft picks. They should sink with who they have on hand, and audition some of their minor leaguers to see who can be part of a good Yankee team in 2012.
The Yankees can still win the East, but in order to do it they’re going to need A.J. Burnett to pitch better than he has, they’re going to need almost every hitter in the lineup to hit better than they have, they’re going to need Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon to stay healthy and reasonably effective, and they’re going to need people like Boone Logan and Luis Ayala to be good in the bullpen, and they’re going to need to replace Ivan Nova with Roy Halladay.
The odds of all those things happening are about the same as the odds of the Yankees beating Boston.
But hey, at least we get to watch Derek Jeter get his 3000th hit.
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Just How Awful Have The Yankees Been Against Boston?
The Yankees dropped their seventh game in eight tries against the Red Sox last night in yet another inspired effort. It’s been frustrating to see the way the Yankees have rolled over for the Red Sox this year. What they’ve done is spotted Boston a six game advantage in the standings.
We know the won/loss record is bad. It’s even worse when you realize they’ve played three games in Boston and five(soon to be six) in New York and are on the verge of being swept at home twice. After today the Yankees will only play Boston three more times at home and they still have to play them six times in Fenway, which rarely goes well.
For a team to go 1-7 against another team while playing five of those eight games at home, they’d have to be around a 49 win team playing against a 113 win team. At this point I don’t doubt the Red Sox are better than the Yankees, but I’m not sure that they’re 65 wins better.
So let’s assign the blame.
| Player | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | HBP | K | SB | CS | GDP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAA |
| Russell Martin | 27 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .227 | .370 | .636 | 5 | 2 |
| Robinson Cano | 32 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .286 | .375 | .500 | 5 | 2 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.333 | 2 | 2 |
| Eric Chavez | 8 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .750 | 2 | 1 |
| Curtis Granderson | 36 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .219 | .306 | .500 | 5 | 1 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 32 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .207 | .281 | .448 | 4 | 0 |
| Jorge Posada | 16 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .286 | .375 | .286 | 2 | 0 |
| Andruw Jones | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .182 | .182 | .455 | 1 | 0 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .286 | .167 | 0 | 0 |
| Brett Gardner | 31 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .192 | .323 | .308 | 3 | -1 |
| Nick Swisher | 32 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .207 | .281 | .310 | 3 | -1 |
| Derek Jeter | 39 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .194 | .256 | .222 | 1 | -3 |
| Mark Teixeira | 34 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .138 | .235 | .138 | 1 | -3 |
| Total | 309 | 34 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 7 | 71 | 5 | 2 | 4 | .227 | .314 | .388 | 34 | 0 |
| AL Avg | 309 | 35 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 6 | .253 | .321 | .396 | 34 | 0 |
BR are linear weights batting runs. BRAA are BR above an average AL hitter, not adjusted for position.
Because the offense in MLB is down significantly this year, while that line looks awful relative to our normal context, in the context of today’s AL it’s not that bad. AL average line right now is .253/.321/.396. We also don’t know if that performance is good or bad in the context of the “strength” of the Yankees and the strength of the Red Sox. It’s really only useful in terms of comparing how the players stack up against each other. In this case you can see the Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira are the chief problems on offense, but there’s a whole lot of stinking going on there.
The team’s actual runs scored are a direct match for their batting runs, which indicates they’ve scored as many runs as they should have given their component stats and have not been unlucky or lucky in terms of how their performance has translated to runs on the scoreboard.
There’s more blame to dish out!
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | K | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAA |
| Freddy Garcia | 8.0 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 11.25 | 10.13 | 8.87 | -6.2 |
| A.J. Burnett | 5.7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12.71 | 11.12 | 6.22 | -5.3 |
| Phil Hughes | 2.0 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | 27.00 | 12.37 | -5.0 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 3.7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12.27 | 12.27 | 9.42 | -3.3 |
| Lance Pendleton | 1.7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16.20 | 16.20 | 19.67 | -2.2 |
| Ivan Nova | 4.3 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8.31 | 8.31 | 4.25 | -1.9 |
| CC Sabathia | 12.3 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 5.11 | 5.11 | 4.49 | -1.1 |
| Bartolo Colon | 10.3 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 4.35 | 2.61 | 3.55 | -0.1 |
| Rafael Soriano | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.87 | 0.5 |
| Mariano Rivera | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.87 | 0.5 |
| Hector Noesi | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.20 | 0.9 |
| David Robertson | 4.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2.25 | 0.00 | 3.12 | 0.9 |
| Boone Logan | 4.7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 3.08 | 1.2 |
| Luis Ayala | 5.3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 2.5 |
| Total | 70.0 | 80 | 52 | 47 | 12 | 42 | 4 | 52 | 6.69 | 6.04 | 5.58 | -18.7 |
| AL Avg | 70 | 67 | 33 | 30 | 7 | 25 | 3 | 52 | 4.28 | 3.91 | 3.91 | 0.0 |
RSAA are runs saved compared to an average pitcher using RA vs. league average RA. FIP is Fielding-independent pitching which focuses on a pitcher’s HR, BB/HBP and Ks against. Again, neither of these account for the context of the opponent so it’s more for comparison among Yankees.
I’m thinking the Yankees may want to skip Freddy Garcia’s next turn against Boston. The Yankees have allowed 52 total runs against Boston, and according to linear weights they should have allowed 49, so just like on offense there’s no evidence of bad luck here. They’ve pitched as poorly as the basic stats say they did. The Yankees have a team BABIP against of .281 this season against everyone but Boston. Against Boston it’s .311. Whether that’s on the pitchers or the defense or some combination of both, I don’t know.
It’s sad, but it’s gotten to the point where I am not even bothering to watch these games. When you finish dinner and turn on the game and see your team is already down 3-0 before they’ve even gotten an out, why watch?
I’d like to say I have a good feeling about CC Sabathia going today, but unfortunately with the Yankee offense backing him you get the feeling that anything less than perfection won’t be good enough.
Again, I’ll say I don’t think the Red Sox are 65 wins better than the Yankees. 60, maybe.
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Yankees.com: Yankees claw back, but not far enough
NEW YORK—One of the major selling points when the Yankees were courting A.J. Burnett was his dominance within the American League East, particularly when matching up against the Red Sox.
Thus far in Burnett’s pinstriped career, however, that hasn’t materialized. The right-hander was pounded for eight runs (seven earned) in 5 2/3 innings as the Red Sox defeated the Yankees, 11-6, on Wednesday at Yankee Stadium.
Burnett is now winless in his last nine starts against Boston, including eight as a Yankee. As a team, New York has lost seven of eight this year against its blood rival, including all five played in the Bronx.
Feh.
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
Yankees.com: Swisher’s swat solidifies sweep for Yankees
OAKLAND—Nick Swisher’s three-run homer supported A.J. Burnett’s strong effort as the Yankees completed a series sweep of the Athletics with a 4-2 victory on Wednesday.
Swisher’s fourth-inning blast off Oakland starter Gio Gonzalez was all Burnett needed in his back pocket as the right-hander allowed just three hits, winning for the second time in three starts.
Burnett allowed two hits and two runs in the first inning then pitched six scoreless allowing just one other hit, albeit with three walks. The offense was mainly provided by Swisher’s homer that gave the Yankees the 4-2 lead that would hold up for the rest of the game. Unfortunately, this just continues the disturbing trend of the Yankees scoring runs by the HR instead of stringing together a bunch of singles and productive outs, although Swisher did start the AB showing bunt so his heart was in the right place.
With Tampa Bay and Boston both losing, the Yankees are now three games up on both teams in the loss column. There’s an off day tomorrow, then it’s on to Anaheim of Los Angeles to get swept.
Can they swap those games with the Angels for more games with Oakland?
Saturday, May 28, 2011
TGS NY: Joe’s handling of ‘pen not so mighty
David Robertson got out of a bed in Tuscaloosa, Alabama at 4:30 a.m. Eastern time Friday morning. Nearly 20 hours later, he was on the mound at Safeco Field, doing his job to perfection, pitching an overpowering eighth inning against the Mariners.
Trouble was, the game had already been lost two innings earlier.
But that’s what happens when a manager sticks to a game plan even if the game no longer fits his plan.
Robertson, back from a mission of mercy to his tornado-ravaged hometown, was no doubt the most tired man in the Yankee bullpen. He was also the only one able to do his job. Unfortunately, by the time he was asked to do it, it was too late. At the time, the Yankees trailed 4-3, and that’s the way it would stay.
I didn’t get to watch the game, so I’d be interested in everyone else’s take, but here’s how I see the situation. With Burnett at 97 pitches with five walks through five innings, I don’t think anyone would quibble with the fact that he was pulled prior to the sixth inning. So the question then is who should have started the bottom of the sixth. With Adam Kennedy (LHB), Miguel Olivo (RHB) and Carlos Peguero (LHB) due up, I can understand the thought process behind starting the sixth inning with Boone Logan. You need to get four innings out of your bullpen, so unless you want one of Robertson, Joba Chamberlain or Mariano Rivera to pitch two innings you needed to get some outs from someone other than those three.
Logan allowed a leadoff single to Kennedy. So now with a RHB up and with the likelihood of a pinch-hitter for Peguero to re-gain the platoon advantage, going to the bullpen for a RHP made sense as well. Unfortunately, Girardi opted for Luis Ayala instead of Robertson and that’s when the game was lost.
Ayala probably would have pitched an inning at some point in the game, so the real problem is that he and Logan didn’t do their jobs. However, once Kennedy reached Girardi should have used a better pitcher due to the leverage of the situation, and not the pitcher who’s ordinal spot in the bullpen hierarchy was now due. If you intended to pitch Robertson or Chamberlain if necessary anyway, they’d have been the better choices in that spot. If they extended themselves to get out of the inning, you could then go to Ayala to begin the seventh with whichever of Robertson or Chamberlain wasn’t used as a safety net to get the game to Rivera.
Again, the real issue is that Logan and Ayala didn’t execute. But it’s fair to say that Girardi’s deployment of the bullpen after Logan is also culpable.
The Yankees really don’t have much margin for error on this road trip if you look at the schedule for the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays over the rest of this West Coast swing.
| Date | Yankee | xW | xL | Red Sox | xW | xL | Rays | xW | xL |
| 5/28/2011 | @ Mariners | .58 | .42 | @ Tigers | .53 | .47 | vs Indians | .58 | .42 |
| 5/29/2011 | @ Mariners | .58 | .42 | @ Tigers | .53 | .47 | vs Indians | .58 | .42 |
| 5/30/2011 | @ Athletics | .51 | .49 | vs White Sox | .62 | .38 | vs Rangers | .54 | .46 |
| 5/31/2011 | @ Athletics | .51 | .49 | vs White Sox | .62 | .38 | vs Rangers | .54 | .46 |
| 6/1/2011 | @ Athletics | .51 | .49 | vs White Sox | .62 | .38 | vs Rangers | .54 | .46 |
| 6/2/2011 | @Mariners | .54 | .46 | ||||||
| 6/3/2011 | @ Angels | .54 | .46 | vs Athletics | .59 | .41 | @Mariners | .54 | .46 |
| 6/4/2011 | @ Angels | .54 | .46 | vs Athletics | .59 | .41 | @Mariners | .54 | .46 |
| 6/5/2011 | @ Angels | .54 | .46 | vs Athletics | .59 | .41 | @Mariners | .54 | .46 |
| 4.32 | 3.68 | 4.72 | 3.28 | 4.95 | 4.05 |
At this point Boston and the Rays have around a one game advantage over the Yankees over the next nine days, at which point the Yankees will return home to face Boston, Cleveland and Texas on a nine game home stand. It’s not inconceivable that the Yankees could be trailing Boston and/or Tampa Bay by three or four games by then. And that’s not exactly the kind of home stand that would allow the Yankees to catch up if they falter on the rest of this trip.
Right now I’ve got Boston projected to finish around 93-69, the Yankees around 91-71 and Tampa Bay around 88-74. If that’s how things still look by the end of this road trip I’d happily take it.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Meet The New A.J. Same as the Old A.J.
A.J. Burnett entered last night’s game with a fine 3.38 ERA. After blowing a 5-1 lead by surrendering five runs in the bottom of the sixth inning that’s now up to 3.99.
I was optimistic about Burnett after his spring training, primarily because he appeared to have much better control. To this point in the season that hasn’t really been the case.
Here’s how Burnett’s peripheral stats looked heading into last night’s game and his average projected peripherals pro-rated to the same # of innings.
| Player | Team | Lg | Role | Type | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO |
| A.J. Burnett | Yankees | AL | SP | Actual | 51 | 39 | 23 | 19 | 6 | 18 | 3 | 39 |
| A.J. Burnett | Yankees | AL | SP | Projected | 51 | 51 | 28 | 26 | 6 | 21 | 3 | 44 |
The primary difference here was the 12 hit difference. While there are certainly pitchers who show the ability to induce weak contact and get fewer hits allowed than average, Burnett’s not someone who’s ever demonstrated that. Because of that, expecting him to continue to pitch as effectively as he has prior to last night was not realistic unless he improved his walk rate or strike out rate.
Instead, Burnett decided to start his correction. Here’s how his actual performance and projections compare now.
| Player | Team | Lg | Role | Type | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO |
| A.J. Burnett | Yankees | AL | SP | Actual | 56 | 47 | 29 | 25 | 9 | 19 | 3 | 42 |
| A.J. Burnett | Yankees | AL | SP | Projected | 56 | 57 | 31 | 29 | 7 | 23 | 4 | 49 |
Burnett’s really not the reason the Yankees lost last night. Although he was only around 80 pitches when he lost it, Joe Girardi was probably still to slow to go to the bullpen. He probably should have had someone warming after the first two hitters in the sixth doubled and homered so that Burnett wasn’t left in to face another five hitters.
Girardi’s really not the reason the Yankees lost last night either.
When the Yankees signed Rafael Soriano, I figured it was a stupid move because it was an overpay for someone who was good, but not really necessary. Instead, what’s happened is the Yankees are paying a ridiculous amount of money and gave up a draft pick for a high-maintenance player who has made them worse. In addition to his own horrible pitching, he’s held a roster spot despite not being able to pitch more often than not. This has necessitated the Yankees using their other relievers more frequently, which then restricts their availability. This has too often put the team in a position where they’re playing with a 22 or 23 man roster.
It’s meant trying to extend starters a bit longer than they should have been, and using weaker relievers in high leverage spots.
I don’t know how many games it’s cost them, but I’m pretty sure it’s cost them some. It almost certainly cost them last night’s game, as Girardi sat on his hands while watching Burnett give up the lead because he didn’t want to go to a short bullpen.
Truth be told though, the real reason I have been so against the Soriano signing is that I bought this set of knee pads in anticipation of the time when I’d be kneeling before him, and now I can’t return them. Does anyone want to buy a pair of un-usued knee pads?
The Yankees need to stop dicking around with Soriano and either put him on the DL or pitch him. As it is now he’s actively hurting the team even when he’s not able to blow the leads himself.
Whoever was behind the Soriano signing should be fired.
Friday, April 29, 2011
MLB.com: Bats intimidate, but starters set up Yanks
The Yankees’ only pitching downside in this series came from setup man Rafael Soriano, whose early-season struggles continued when he gave up a game-turning two-run homer to Paul Konerko in the eighth inning on Tuesday.
But the starters’ performances, particularly from Nova and Colon—a breakthrough of sorts and an apparent restoration, respectively—offered substantial encouragement. And then the Yankees became the Yankees with the bats.
Losing Phil Hughes hurts, but if Burnett can give the Yankees what Hughes projected to give them and Freddy Garcia can give them what Burnett projected to give them then they’re essentially where they looked to be heading into the season, hoping they can get enough out of the 4/5 spots to contend. Between Bartolo Colon and Ivan Nova, I think they’ve got that, although Colon’s health is probably going to be a concern all year.
I do wish they’d stop hitting all these homers though. You can’t win games when you homer all the time.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
2011 Yankees projected vs actual through April 19
As a card-carrying member of the baseball stat nerd cult, I understand that we shouldn’t read too much into the results of early-season performance. We should generally trust that a player’s performance will more often than not regress towards their expected performance as the season moves on.
That doesn’t mean the data we have so far this season is useless in terms of telling us what’s happened. It just means we shouldn’t expect it to tell us all that much about what will happen.
Here’s a quick comparison of the differences between the Yankees’ projections and actual performance so far.
| player | team | pa | ytd_woba | proj_woba | ytd-proj |
| Rodriguez, Alex | Yankees | 50 | .531 | .376 | 6.8 |
| Martin, Russell | Yankees | 52 | .398 | .328 | 3.1 |
| Chavez, Eric | Yankees | 20 | .421 | .285 | 2.4 |
| Granderson, Curtis | Yankees | 55 | .377 | .345 | 1.5 |
| Jones, Andruw | Yankees | 12 | .414 | .326 | 0.9 |
| Cano, Robinson | Yankees | 64 | .375 | .360 | 0.8 |
| Teixeira, Mark | Yankees | 66 | .395 | .383 | 0.7 |
| Posada, Jorge | Yankees | 54 | .322 | .344 | -1.0 |
| Swisher, Nick | Yankees | 64 | .309 | .356 | -2.6 |
| Jeter, Derek | Yankees | 66 | .262 | .332 | -4.0 |
| Gardner, Brett | Yankees | 51 | .182 | .325 | -6.3 |
| Total | 554 | .352 | .348 | 2 |
ytd_woba year to date weighted on-base average
proj_woba average projected wOBA
ytd-proj run value of difference between projected and year to date woba
Brett Gardner’s the biggest disappointment so far offensively. Whether’s it’s just a rough start or indicative of something that we should worry about is something we just don’t know yet.
Did you know Gardner’s not the player who’s under-peforming his projection by the most? Here’s that list.
| player | team | pa | ytd_woba | proj_woba | ytd-proj |
| Crawford, Carl | Red Sox | 66 | .166 | .351 | -10.6 |
| Loney, James | Dodgers | 71 | .192 | .329 | -8.5 |
| Pujols, Albert | Cardinals | 73 | .308 | .431 | -7.8 |
| Johnson, Dan | Rays | 54 | .196 | .350 | -7.2 |
| Alvarez, Pedro | Pirates | 65 | .218 | .340 | -6.9 |
| Wells, Vernon | Angels | 74 | .220 | .325 | -6.7 |
| Morneau, Justin | Twins | 56 | .246 | .381 | -6.6 |
| Choo, Shin-Soo | Indians | 74 | .271 | .372 | -6.5 |
| Jackson, Austin | Tigers | 72 | .213 | .315 | -6.4 |
| Gardner, Brett | Yankees | 51 | .182 | .325 | -6.3 |
Apparently Austin Jackson did not have the BABIP skill to maintain his 2010 performance, at least so far.
The net on the offense is actually fine. As a unit they’ve collectively slightly overperformed, but not to a large extent.
The pitching is the real problem.
| Last, First | mlbam_id | ip | ytd_ra | ytd_fip | p_ra | p_fip | diff_ra | diff_fip |
| Garcia, Freddy | 150119 | 6.0 | 0.00 | 3.37 | 4.96 | 4.75 | 3.3 | 0.9 |
| Sabathia, CC | 282332 | 25.0 | 2.88 | 3.08 | 3.66 | 3.62 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Burnett, A.J. | 150359 | 22.7 | 4.76 | 4.88 | 4.98 | 4.55 | 0.5 | -0.8 |
| Nova, Ivan | 467100 | 14.7 | 7.36 | 4.22 | 5.43 | 4.95 | -3.2 | 1.2 |
| Hughes, Phil | 461833 | 10.3 | 13.94 | 8.81 | 4.19 | 4.12 | -11.2 | -5.4 |
| Total | 78.7 | 5.49 | 4.59 | -8.3 | -2.6 | |||
| Last, First | mlbam_id | ip | ytd_ra | ytd_fip | p_ra | p_fip | diff_ra | diff_fip |
| Robertson, David | 502085 | 6.0 | 0.00 | 1.87 | 3.95 | 3.70 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| Pendleton, Lance | 459983 | 3.0 | 0.00 | 1.87 | 5.25 | 4.94 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Rivera, Mariano | 121250 | 9.3 | 1.93 | 2.02 | 3.02 | 3.32 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Colon, Bartolo | 112526 | 11.3 | 4.76 | 2.85 | 5.56 | 4.96 | 1.0 | 2.7 |
| Ayala, Luis | 425646 | 5.0 | 3.60 | 6.20 | 5.39 | 4.60 | 1.0 | -0.9 |
| Chamberlain, Joba | 501955 | 10.0 | 4.50 | 2.40 | 4.41 | 3.88 | -0.1 | 1.6 |
| Garcia, Freddy | 150119 | 1.0 | 9.00 | 4.20 | 4.96 | 4.75 | -0.4 | 0.1 |
| Nova, Ivan | 467100 | 0.7 | 13.50 | 3.20 | 5.43 | 4.95 | -0.6 | 0.1 |
| Logan, Boone | 457429 | 3.0 | 9.00 | 6.53 | 4.68 | 4.41 | -1.4 | -0.7 |
| Soriano, Rafael | 400089 | 7.7 | 7.04 | 3.59 | 3.37 | 3.51 | -3.1 | -0.1 |
| Total | 22.3 | 10.48 | 7.90 | -5.7 | 1.1 | |||
| Team Total | 101.0 | 6.59 | 5.32 | -14.0 | -1.6 |
ytd_ra: year to date runs allowed per nine innings
ytd_fip: year to date fielding-independent pitching
p_ra: average projected ra
p_fip: average projected fip
diff_ra: difference in runs between projected and actual ra
diff_fip: difference in runs between projected and actual fip
Add about 7 inches and 65 pounds to Brett Gardner and you’ve got Phil Hughes. The thing that really scares me here is seeing that A.J. Burnett’s FIP is actually worse than his projected FIP. He’s looked better than that to me, although I guess last night’s game is evidence that he’s still a work in progress.
The pen has been a bit worse than expected, primarly thanks to Boone Logan and Rafael Soriano. I’d expect Soriano to be fine going forward, but I’m not so sure on Logan.
I figured Hughes had to be the pitcher who’s been underperforming by the most this year, but it turns out that’s not quite true.
| Last, First | mlbam_id | ip | ytd_ra | ytd_fip | p_ra | p_fip | diff_ra | diff_fip |
| Pelfrey, Mike | 460059 | 16.7 | 10.80 | 5.66 | 4.52 | 4.15 | -11.6 | -2.8 |
| Hughes, Phil | 461833 | 10.3 | 13.94 | 8.81 | 4.19 | 4.12 | -11.2 | -5.4 |
| Bedard, Erik | 407853 | 13.7 | 10.54 | 8.03 | 3.87 | 3.91 | -10.1 | -6.3 |
| Figueroa, Nelson | 150153 | 16.0 | 10.13 | 2.89 | 4.54 | 4.39 | -9.9 | 2.7 |
| Lackey, John | 407793 | 14.7 | 9.82 | 6.00 | 4.61 | 4.08 | -8.5 | -3.1 |
| Westbrook, Jake | 150414 | 15.3 | 9.39 | 6.85 | 4.47 | 4.36 | -8.4 | -4.3 |
| Hernandez, Felix | 433587 | 27.0 | 6.00 | 3.24 | 3.24 | 3.29 | -8.3 | 0.2 |
| Penny, Brad | 207267 | 21.3 | 8.44 | 5.78 | 4.97 | 4.46 | -8.2 | -3.1 |
Over at Baseball Think Factory there’ve been a few threads that were essentially arguments between Yankees fans and Mets fans about who you’d rather have, Hughes or Mike Pelfrey. Apparently, the correct answer is neither.
Yankees.com: Mo shoulders blame after Yanks fall in 10th
“It wasn’t a good night tonight,” Rivera said. “I didn’t make good pitches. I think the guys did tremendous today. It’s my fault.”
Rivera had been perfect in seven previous opportunities, but it was easy to see he wasn’t sharp this time out.
“It happens. Mo is as close to perfect in these situations as you can be, but as we know, no one is perfect,” manager Joe Girardi said.
#### happens. Girardi tried to blow this game in the sixth by leaving in A.J. Burnett for at least two batters too long, only to be bailed out by David Robertson who came in with the tying run on third and the go-ahead run on second with one out and struck out Yunel Escobar and Travis Snider to preserve a 4-3 lead. From there, the auto-manager took over and did what it always does in this situation. If inning = 7, then pitcher = Joba Chamberlain. If inning = 8, then Rafael, Soriano. If inning=9, then Mariano Rivera. Chamberlain and Soriano did their jobs, and Rivera didn’t.
I think the Yankees are one of only two teams that has yet to lose two games in a row this season. Their hopes for extending that will fall on Bartolo Colon tonight.
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Yankees.com: Big blasts back Burnett as Yanks top O’s
NEW YORK—A.J. Burnett continued his strong opening act by winning his third straight start, backed by home runs from Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada as the Yankees defeated the Orioles, 7-4, on Wednesday at Yankee Stadium.
Intent upon bouncing back after a disappointing season in 2010, Burnett was staked to an early lead by his bats and remained in control of the Baltimore lineup into the seventh inning before serving up a pair of two-run homers.
Although his final line looks less than stellar, I thought Burnett pitched very well tonight. He labored through the first two innings, throwing something like 50 pitches, then cruised through the next four innings. Innings 3-6 might have been the best I’ve seen Burnett pitch as a Yankee. What I really liked was his increased use of the changeup.
Burnett got Adam Jones out to start the top of the 7th, then allowed a double and a HR. I’d have probably pulled him then, figuring he may be fatigued or the weather may have gotten to him. Girardi decided to stick with him and he gave up another two-run HR, to pull the Orioles within three. Girardi was clearly confused at this point, because even though it was the 7th inning he did not bring in his 7th inning guy, instead going with David Robertson who closed out the inning. Rafael Soriano and Mariano Rivera finished it out, like they normally should and the Yankees are now tied for first place. Yay!
Sunday, April 3, 2011
2011 Minor League Preview Part 1 (Positivity and Wishful Thinking Thread)
The Yankees’ Major League season is underway and the minor league season kicks off on April 7th. In order to streamline your minor league viewing experience I will be highlighting select players from the four full-season clubs and giving you an idea of what to look for. Players are listed alphabetically and grouped by minor league level. I have also listed their current position as well as age as of minor league Opening Day. No doubt, many/most of these names will be familiar to you.
Scranton Three-Year Weighted Park Multipliers:
| R | H | 2B | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .95 | .99 | .96 | .93 | .95 | 1.02 |
Andrew Brackman, SP, 25-Keep throwing strikes. Brackman may be the single most important minor leaguer for the 2011 season and so it is imperative that he continues to throw strikes. If/when The Rock, Bartolo-y and Millwood turn into pumpkins, Brackman will likely be the first prospect given a shot. While an early Spring Training groin injury killed any chances he had at making the team it was clear the Yankee brass felt it was important for him to get his feet wet (doesn’t hurt that he has a ML contract). As he makes the transition to AAA, Brackman will also have to focus on developing his command. While he has dramatically cut the walks, and that’s a good thing, he has become more hittable than you would like for a pitcher with his physical talent. 2011 will be all about striking that balance.
Key Stat(s): BB/9, H/9
Dan Brewer, OF, 23-Brewer does not have any plus tools, but has performed, thus far. As is often the case when a guy lacking physicality or dominant statistical performance comes along, Brewer has been tagged as a future 4th OF or fringe starter. This means he is going to have to continue doing what he has done thus far and that is prove himself in all facets of the game.
Key Stat(s): All
Colin Curtis, OF, 26-Curtis is another future 4th OF type, but with less ability on the bases, more pop and a better pedigree. Curtis had a good first full season at AAA last year, better than you would have thought given his prior AA performance and will look to repeat. With Chris Dickerson now in the system as well as Brewer and Laird at the AAA level, there will be a lot of competition for that first call-up if/when one of the Yankee OFs gets hurt.
Key Stat(s): All
Brandon Laird, CIF/OF, 23-The Yankees seem to like the idea of Laird as a future backup at all 4 corner positions and I would agree that this is a good use of his talents. The toughest position he would have to play, 3B, is also one that he has a lot of minor league experience at. Despite some iffy defensive scouting reports when I’ve seen Laird play the hot corner he has shown average range and a plus arm. He can be erratic at times, but as a guy who is only going to see action in spurts I don’t think it will be much of a concern. While Laird had a monster offensive performance in a very tough AA league he scuffled at AAA. Laird comes from the grip it and rip it school of hitting and the numbers (his .246/.268/.344 line turns into .211/.237/.246 when you remove his first 2 games) seem to indicate that once the book was out on him he was unable to adjust. In ’11 he will have to prove that last year’s AA offenseive performance was not a fluke. While I have faith the power is real, I am concerned about the approach.
Key Stat(s): BB, BB/K
DJ Mitchell, SP, 23-D.J. is in a tough spot. Because almost every pitcher in the system had a huge year last year guys who are either more talented or more ready now surround him. Normally, someone with his profile would be a prime candidate for some spot action this year, but I think he gets tacked on to a deal at some point. If he can keep the ball on the ground and the walks in check, he will prove useful out of the bullpen, wherever he ends up.
Key Stat(s): BB/9, GB%
Jesus Montero, C, 21-I didn’t see every inning of Montero’s (televised) Spring Training appearances but, apparently, he was really bad whenever I stopped watching. When I did watch, Montero didn’t stand out, which was a triumph considering scouting reports had lead me to believe he would make a mistake on every pitch. Joel Sherman aside, everyone in the world believes Montero will hit at the big league level and so all he needs to do is prove that his defense is “not terrible” enough so that the Yankees can use him to replace the corpse of Turtle.
Key Stat(s): PB, WP, CS%, BA/OBP/SLG
Hector Noesi, SP, 24-I think this is the year Noesi’s hype as a prospect, lukewarm as it may be, dies out. Dominican Scary Fly-Ball Guy has more velocity than the original Scary Fly-Ball Guy but the same love for balls in the air. This has worked out fine for him thus far but 2011 will mark the first time he does not play in a home park that hugely depresses home runs. I’m not optimistic about his odds of maintaining his success as a starter but he could pitch teh fifth.
Key Stat(s): HR/9, K/9
David Phelps, SP, 24-Phelps, a small righty with “stuff” questions, made it to AAA last year and saw his K rate tumble and HR rate increase. However, he also cut some walks and increased the K:BB ratio while keeping runs off the board at a solid rate. Any projection beyond back of the rotation or middle relief is tough for a guy with this sort of profile and he will return to AAA hoping to miss a few more bats and limit quality contact.
Key Stat(s): HR/9, K/9, H/9
Adam Warren, SP, 23-Because he’s a small right-hander with outstanding minor league performance I often think of Warren as the Yankees’ second shot at the Ian Kennedy thing. Warren has more fastball than Kennedy did though, but has yet to demonstrate a secondary pitch as effective as Kennedy’s change. While the fastball velocity is better, Warren, like Kennedy, will have to work on his command and keep the ball in the park. I like his chances of doing so and think he will be the first guy up for an extended look this year.
Key Stat(s): HR/9, K/9
Saturday, April 2, 2011
Yankees.com: Yanks’ bats relentless in rout of Tigers
NEW YORK—A.J. Burnett fought a head cold for five good innings and Mark Teixeira continued to win his battle with April’s chills as the Yankees defeated the Tigers, 10-6, on Saturday at Yankee Stadium.
Congested and weakened by illness this week, Burnett limited the Tigers to three runs and was cushioned by Teixeira’s second three-run homer of the young campaign, a blast off Detroit starter Brad Penny.
Russell Martin also slugged a three-run homer, connecting in the fifth off Brad Thomas, and Alex Rodriguez took rookie Brayan Villarreal deep for a solo shot in the sixth, the 614th homer of Rodriguez’s career.
I liked what I saw out of Burnett, especially factoring in the fact that he was fighting an illness. The Yankees will go for the sweep tomorrow afternoon with Phil Hughes on the hill.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Looking Ahead To 2011 - A.J. Burnett
Year 2 of A.J. Burnett’s Yankee tenure was an unmitigated disaster. He started off well, winning his first four decisions and putting up an ERA of 1.99 over his first six starts.
| dates | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | so | fb% | gb% | ld% | hr/fb% | babip | ra | era | fip | xfip | bb/bf | k/bf |
| 4/6-5/4 | 6 | 40.2 | 36 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 31.9% | 48.7% | 19.3% | 2.6% | .297 | 2.46 | 2.01 | 2.95 | 3.98 | 6.7% | 17.1% |
fb%: percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
gb%: percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
ld%: percentage of batted balls that were line drives
hr/fb%: percentage of fly balls that were home runs
babip: batting average against on balls in play
fip: fielding independent pitching
xfip: expected fielding independent pitching (replace HRs with 0.11 times fly balls)
bb/bf: percentage of batters walked
k/bf: percentage of batters who struck out
A large part of Burnett’s early season success was due to a very low HR/FB rate of 2.6%. In his career he’s been around 10.5%, so that was almost certain to go up as the season progressed. His batted ball type distribution was essentially around his career norms, and his BABIP against of .297 was right around his career average of .289.
Burnett got torched over his next 10 starts.
| dates | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | so | fb% | gb% | ld% | hr/fb% | babip | ra | era | fip | xfip | bb/bf | k/bf |
| 5/9-6/26 | 10 | 51.8 | 68 | 50 | 46 | 12 | 30 | 44 | 37.7% | 45.1% | 17.1% | 18.2% | .344 | 8.69 | 7.99 | 6.25 | 5.06 | 11.5% | 16.9% |
His K rate was about the same, but his walk rate went up by about 70%. His HR/FB rate shot through the roof as did his BABIP against.
Over his next nine starts, Burnett pitched adequately enough.
| dates | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | so | fb% | gb% | ld% | hr/fb% | babip | ra | era | fip | xfip | bb/bf | k/bf |
| 7/2-8/20 | 9 | 52.5 | 54 | 24 | 24 | 6 | 19 | 38 | 41.5% | 43.3% | 15.2% | 8.8% | .304 | 4.11 | 4.00 | 4.32 | 4.69 | 8.4% | 16.7% |
Over his last eight starts he again had bad results, although his peripherals weren’t too bad.
| dates | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | so | fb% | gb% | ld% | hr/fb% | babip | ra | era | fip | xfip | bb/bf | k/bf |
| 8/27-10/2 | 8 | 38.2 | 46 | 33 | 30 | 6 | 18 | 35 | 37.1% | 43.1% | 19.8% | 14.0% | .364 | 7.77 | 7.07 | 4.82 | 4.39 | 10.2% | 19.8% |
Burnett’s final line was an ugly one, although I thought his lone playoff start was a decent one that was extended for one batter too long.
In 2009, Burnett was worth somewhere in the area of three wins above a replacement level pitcher. In 2010, he was barely above replacement level and even below it by Baseball Reference’s version of WAR.
I’m not going to speculate on any of the personal reasons that may have contributed to Burnett’s struggles, although it’s not much of a secret that he was going through a difficult family time. I just know he walked more batters, struck out fewer batters, allowed a higher rate of HRs and hits and was throwing about 1 mph LESS on average with his fastball.
I don’t know if there’s any player whose projections are of less utility than A.J. Burnett, but here they are.
| projecton | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| bill_james | 33 | 191 | 182 | 92 | 85 | 21 | 77 | 177 | 4.33 | 4.01 | 4.17 | 35 | 3.5 |
| fans | |||||||||||||
| cairo | 31 | 187 | 189 | 105 | 97 | 23 | 74 | 156 | 5.05 | 4.67 | 4.51 | 19 | 1.9 |
| marcel | 29 | 174 | 175 | 93 | 86 | 20 | 72 | 148 | 4.81 | 4.45 | 4.42 | 22 | 2.2 |
| oliver | 33 | 198 | 208 | 126 | 116 | 27 | 84 | 170 | 5.71 | 5.28 | 4.53 | 6 | 0.6 |
| pecota | 30 | 187 | 185 | 103 | 95 | 25 | 78 | 168 | 4.95 | 4.56 | 4.60 | 21 | 2.1 |
| zips | 30 | 182 | 184 | 97 | 91 | 22 | 74 | 159 | 4.80 | 4.50 | 4.47 | 24 | 2.4 |
| average* | 31 | 186 | 188 | 105 | 97 | 23 | 76 | 160 | 5.08 | 4.70 | 4.55 | 18 | 1.8 |
| 2010 | 33 | 187 | 204 | 118 | 109 | 25 | 78 | 145 | 5.69 | 5.26 | 4.82 | 6 | 0.6 |
RA/ERA: Runs/Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher(park and role-adjusted, using RA)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
*average does not include bill_james or fans
Aside from Oliver, the projections expect a better Burnett in 2011, somewhere in the area of around two wins better than replacement level.
Here are his CAIRO percentile forecasts.
| cairo% | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 34 | 205 | 179 | 97 | 89 | 19 | 67 | 172 | 4.25 | 3.91 | 3.81 | 39 | 3.9 |
| 65% | 34 | 196 | 184 | 101 | 93 | 21 | 70 | 164 | 4.64 | 4.28 | 4.15 | 29 | 2.9 |
| Baseline | 31 | 187 | 189 | 105 | 97 | 23 | 74 | 156 | 5.05 | 4.67 | 4.51 | 19 | 1.9 |
| 35% | 25 | 162 | 176 | 99 | 92 | 23 | 70 | 135 | 5.50 | 5.09 | 4.90 | 8 | 0.8 |
| 20% | 20 | 139 | 162 | 92 | 85 | 22 | 66 | 115 | 5.98 | 5.55 | 5.33 | 0 | 0.0 |
I really wouldn’t be surprised to see any of those lines from Burnett.
He’s thrown well so far in spring training, although I’m not sure that tells us much.
| IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | |
| 2010 Spring | 19.1 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 10 |
| 2011 Spring | 13 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
Burnett had a lousy spring in 2010, but it didn’t seem to be indicative of anything after his first six starts. I do like the fact that he hasn’t walked a batter, but again, I don’t know how predictive it is.
I think Burnett will have a decent year, because until last year he’s always been a pretty good (if inconsistent) pitcher. I am heartened by the way he’s thrown this spring, and hope that Larry Rothchild gets him back to where he was in 2009. If he can do that, a lot of the concern about the Yankees’ rotation will dissipate.
Thursday, March 3, 2011
NYDN: A.J. Burnett has Yankees thinking positive
“There’s been a lot said, and why wouldn’t it after what I did last year?” Burnett said. “It’s my job to go out and shut some mouths and do what I can do, and not worry about it.”
To do that, Rothschild has focused in bullpen sessions this spring on creating “less swing” in Burnett’s delivery, concentrating on having him take a more direct line to home plate with his front (left) leg instead of falling off toward first base.
Burnett explained that mechanical adjustment “should eliminate the 0-2 curveballs that I yank about a foot and a half off the plate, instead of three or four inches off the plate, which is a big difference for the hitter. It’s going to help me not miss by so much and not waste as many pitches.”
The often volatile hurler also admitted he needs to improve his mental approach on the mound and “not be worried about what happens if you throw a ball or what I did wrong if I miss by a few inches, or always trying to fix something.”
I thought Burnett looked pretty good yesterday, but I’m not going to get excited about two spring training innings against what may be the worst team in baseball. But it was a positive first start, which is a good thing.
Friday, February 25, 2011
NY Post: Workout plan has Yankees’ Sabathia full of zip
As he pumped a river of batting-practice fastballs under a warm blue sky, the Yankees ace noticed the results of a rigorous offseason conditioning program.
“I don’t get tired,” Sabathia said following a 25-pitch session at George M. Steinbrenner Field that was caught by Russell Martin. “Every spring training in years past I [tired]. My stamina is a lot better.”
Since CC is going to opt out after this year to sign with Boston anyway, the Yankees should use him as their first, third and fifth starter this year. CC, Hughes, CC, Burnett, CC is a hell of a rotation.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
NJ.com: Carig - Yankees captain Derek Jeter done with anger over contract negotiations
—On general manager Brian Cashman’s remarks about Jeter being suited for center field, if a position change had to be made during the life of his new three-year, $51 million deal: “I’ve been here long enough to not really pay attention to everything.”
—On his disappointing 2010 season: “I’ve always been pretty good in my career in terms of forgetting about previous seasons whether it’s a good season or a bad season. ... You have to be able to put previous seasons behind you and focus on the one that’s coming up.”
—On his recent work with hitting coach Kevin Long: “We didn’t do anything different than the end of that year. It was just the changes that we made last year in August, maybe, September, usually you don’t make those changes in the middle of a season because it takes a long time to get comfortable with it. We were just continuing that.”
In an interesting coincidence, I’m done with my anger over Jeter grounding into 425* double plays in 2010.
*estimated
On an unrelated note, if you’re interested in who may have been the worst World Series winner of all time, I helped Chris Jaffe run a simulation. The 1996 and 2000 Yankees were in the running, but they DID not win. Which means they didn’t lose.
On yet another unrelated note, Larry Koestler at Yankeeist has a pretty interesting post looking at Pitch FX for 2010 to figure out which pitchers had the best/worst vertical horizontal breaks, split up by handedness. A.J. Burnett’s fastball makes one of the lists, but I won’t tell you which one.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
TGS New York: Rothschild: A.J. can make it back
“He’s healthy, the stuff is still there, and his mind and heart are in the right place,’’ Rothschild said. “He wants to do well, and I believe I can help him to do that.’‘
Rothschild said the memory of Burnett’s miserable 2010 season—10-15, 5.26 ERA and two entire months, June and August, in which he did not win a single game while losing 10 times—may be impetus enough for him to rebound with a good 2011. “Nobody wants to have a year like he had,’’ Rothschild said. “Maybe that alone will be the boost he needs to get better.’’
My projection about the Yankees as presently constituted being around a 90-91 win team includes an assumption that Burnett will pitch something like 170 innings of 4.91 RA. If he can pitch 179 innings of 4.68 RA (his 65% forecast) that’s worth an additional half-win. If he can pitch 187 innings of 4.46 RA (80% foreast), that’s worth another half-win. And if he can pitch more innings at any of those levels it takes innings away from pitchers who may be worse than that.
If by some miracle he could match his 2009 performance of 207 IP and a 4.30 RA, that’s about 1.5 additional wins.
Burnett’s history gives me hope that his most recent performance is less predictive than it would be for the average player. Of course, that could be good OR bad.
If Rothchild can help Burnett pitch well, he’ll be worth his weight in WAR.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
NY Post: Yankees GM says if Jeter moves, it’ll be to center field
Cashman reportedly said he would be surprised if Jeter finished his career at shortstop, “but that doesn’t mean it’s not possible.”
I’m going to go ahead and say it’s not possible.
Speaking at the WFAN fan breakfast, Cashman reportedly also said the Red Sox were better than the Yankees right now, but his team has a better bullpen.
I think I’d rather be the better team with the worse bullpen, but that’s just me.
Cashman also reportedly said, “We’re one starter away from being a World Series contender,” but it would not be Joba Chamberlain and unlikely to be Andy Pettitte.
Technically, if you’re a playoff contender aren’t you already a World Series contender? Maybe that one starter could be a better than projected A.J. Burnett? And maybe Peter Gammons won’t pick the Red Sox to win the AL East.
Of Chamberlain, Cashman said the right-hander hasn’t been the same since suffering a shoulder injury in Texas (in August 2008).
If the Yankees are concerned about Chamberlain’s ability to stay healthy, it makes their refusal to entertain Joba as a starter a little clearer. Of course, if this is the reason, it is probably also not in their best interests to come out and say it explicitly if they want to keep Chamberlain’s value as high as it can possibly be right now, which is to say probably not all that high.
Say what you want about Cashman, but I find the honesty of some of these comments refreshing. I also like seeing that Cashman’s assessment of this team’s flaws jibes with reality, at least our reality, which may or may not be actual reality. Although if it’s not actual reality, it’s not reality at all, and then I am not sure what it is.
Monday, January 10, 2011
NDYN: Royals refusal to listen to offers for Joakim Soria adds to winter woes for Brian Cashman
Having struck out everywhere in his quest to land a frontline starter, Cashman has since sought to strengthen the staff from the back end, only to run into another stonewall with Kansas City Royals GM Dayton Moore’s refusal to consider offers for his closer Joakim Soria. Moore’s “no way” stance on Soria - who recently said he would waive his no-trade clause and approve a deal to the Yankees - is puzzling.
If the Yankees do want to shore up the bullpen, signing Rafael Soriano and/or trading for Joakim Soria would inarguably help. However, in order to determine how much of an upgrade they’d be, it would probably help to do a comparison of the Yankee bullpen without either of them first.
Assume the following five pitchers are locks for the bullpen
Mariano Rivera
David Robertson
Joba Chamberlain (yeah, I know)
Pedro Feliciano
Boone Logan
Here are the pitchers on the 40 man roster who may be candidates for the bullpen.
Dellin Betances
Andrew Brackman
Robert Fish
Steve Garrison
Damaso Marte
Sergio Mitre
Hector Noesi
Ivan Nova
Ryan Pope
Romulo Sanchez
Brian Schlitter
Daniel Turpen
For now, let’s assume Marte’s going to spend the season throwing from flat ground with the occasional setback. Let’s also assume that the Yankees aren’t going to add a starter for now and that Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre are penciled in for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation. I’m also going to assume that for now none of Betances, Brackman or Noesi would start the year in the bullpen, since they’d probably be better served getting regular work in the minors.
Last year’s bullpen pitched 469.1 innings, but let’s figure that this year’s rotation is weaker and so they’ll be needed to pitch more than that. The 2008 Yankees got a little less than 900 innings from their starters, and had Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson in the rotation as the third and fifth-most used starters, neither of whom was any better than how Nova and Mitre project, so that seems like a reasonable number of innings to allocate to the rotation in 2011. So that leaves around 550 innings for the bullpen.
Let’s assume the following allocation of innings for the starting rotation and the five locks in the bullpen.
| Pitcher | Role | IP | R | RA/9 | RSAR |
| Sabathia, CC | SP1 | 200 | 87 | 3.89 | 48 |
| Hughes, Phil | SP2 | 190 | 94 | 4.44 | 34 |
| Burnett, A.J. | SP3 | 170 | 95 | 5.02 | 19 |
| Nova, Ivan | SP4 | 150 | 94 | 5.63 | 7 |
| Mitre, Sergio | SP5 | 100 | 58 | 5.20 | 9 |
| Noesi, Hector | SP6 | 50 | 30 | 5.48 | 3 |
| Igawa, Kei | SP7 | 30 | 20 | 5.97 | 0 |
| Starter Total | 890 | 477 | 4.82 | 119 | |
| Pitcher | Role | IP | RA/9 | R | RSAR |
| Rivera, Mariano | CL | 60 | 2.93 | 20 | 17 |
| Robertson, David | SU | 70 | 4.25 | 33 | 10 |
| Chamberlain, Joba | SU | 70 | 4.62 | 36 | 7 |
| Feliciano, Pedro | MR | 45 | 4.58 | 23 | 5 |
| Logan, Boone | MR | 50 | 4.74 | 26 | 4 |
| Reliever Total | 295 | 4.20 | 138 | 44 | |
| Team Total | 1185 | 4.67 | 615 | 164 |
IP: Projected innings pitched
R: Total runs allowed
RA/9: Projected runs allowed per nine innings
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level
As should be abundantly clear at this point, I’m being deliberately pessimistic in order to amplify the possible gain from adding Soriano or Soria. Also, Kei Igawa is not necessarily the actual Kei Igawa, but a proxy for some replacement level pitcher who ends up pitching some innings.
This means we need to add about 255 innings from the rest of the bullpen to get to the normal 1440 innings in a season. Let’s assume the Yankees fill those 255 innings with Turpen, Garrison, Fish and Schlitter. Here’s what that looks like.
| Pitcher | Role | IP | RA/9 | R | RSAR |
| Sabathia, CC | SP1 | 200 | 3.89 | 87 | 48 |
| Hughes, Phil | SP2 | 190 | 4.44 | 94 | 34 |
| Burnett, A.J. | SP3 | 170 | 5.02 | 95 | 19 |
| Nova, Ivan | SP4 | 150 | 5.63 | 94 | 7 |
| Mitre, Sergio | SP5 | 100 | 5.20 | 58 | 9 |
| Noesi, Hector | SP6 | 50 | 5.48 | 30 | 3 |
| Igawa, Kei | SP7 | 30 | 5.97 | 20 | 0 |
| Starter Total | 890 | 4.82 | 477 | 119 | |
| Pitcher | Role | IP | RA/9 | R | RSAR |
| Rivera, Mariano | CL | 60 | 2.93 | 20 | 17 |
| Robertson, David | SU | 70 | 4.25 | 33 | 10 |
| Chamberlain, Joba | SU | 70 | 4.62 | 36 | 7 |
| Feliciano, Pedro | MR | 45 | 4.58 | 23 | 5 |
| Logan, Boone | MR | 50 | 4.74 | 26 | 4 |
| Turpen, Dan | MR | 65 | 5.16 | 37 | 3 |
| Garrison, Steve | MR | 65 | 5.29 | 38 | 2 |
| Fish, Robert | LR | 65 | 5.72 | 41 | -1 |
| Schlitter, Brian | LR | 60 | 5.91 | 39 | -2 |
| Reliever Total | 550 | 4.81 | 294 | 45 | |
| Team Total | 1440 | 4.82 | 771 | 165 |
If CAIRO’s projected 835 runs scored for the 2011 Yankees is accurate right now, that’s about an 87 win team.
Here are how Soria and Soriano would projected as Yankees in 2011.
| Pitcher | Role | IP | RA/9 | R | RSAR |
| Soria, Joakim | MR | 65 | 3.24 | 23 | 17 |
| Soriano, Rafael | MR | 65 | 3.61 | 26 | 14 |
Soriano’s projection looks a bit high to me, but it shouldn’t matter that much. We can even just assume he’ll be as good as Soria would be to simplify things.
So the obvious upgrade here is that you remove something like 65 of the worst projected innings here with Soria/Soriano. So replacing Schlitter and five innings of Fish with Soria looks like this.
| Pitcher | Role | IP | RA/9 | R | RSAR |
| Rivera, Mariano | CL | 60 | 2.93 | 20 | 17 |
| Soria, Joakim | SU | 65 | 3.24 | 23 | 17 |
| Robertson, David | SU | 70 | 4.25 | 33 | 10 |
| Chamberlain, Joba | MR | 70 | 4.62 | 36 | 7 |
| Feliciano, Pedro | MR | 45 | 4.58 | 23 | 5 |
| Logan, Boone | MR | 50 | 4.74 | 26 | 4 |
| Turpen, Dan | MR | 65 | 5.16 | 37 | 3 |
| Garrison, Steve | LR | 65 | 5.29 | 38 | 2 |
| Fish, Robert | LR | 60 | 5.72 | 38 | -1 |
| Reliever Total | 550 | 4.50 | 275 | 64 | |
| Team Total | 1440 | 4.70 | 752 | 184 |
It’s about a 19 run upgrade on a spreadsheet. If you want to include leverage for that, assuming Soria pitches in the same spots that Robertson, Chamberlain and Kerry Wood pitched in last year, you can multiply that by about 1.27 (their weighted average leverage index in 2010). That makes it about a 24 run upgrade.
So that’s probably about the theoretical ceiling of how much Soria or Soriano would be worth, and it’s based on what I think are some pessimistic assumptions. In reality I’d expect an upgrade of slightly less than two wins.
If Soriano didn’t cost you a draft pick and was about as good as Soria projects to be, he’d probably be worth a 1 year/$10M or 2 year/$20M deal for the Yankees. I don’t think I’d want to commit to him for a third year, especially if the market for him isn’t particularly strong.
If the alternative is trading for Soria, then it’d have to be a trade that cost the Yankees less than however much they think their first round pick in 2011 is worth. Otherwise you’re overpaying for what might be a three run difference. So in absolutely no way should they consider trading Jesus Montero or the three B’s. At least that’s what I think.
Unfortunately, I doubt the Royals would accept anything less than at least one of those players.
So if I had to choose one, give me Soriano and the lost draft pick over Soria and the lost top five prospect(s).
But I just don’t see a two win upgrade being worth either one. It still doesn’t make the Yankees better than Boston on a spreadsheet.
Friday, January 7, 2011
Does A.J. Burnett’s Age Make Him More Likely To Be Better in 2011?
As promised, here’s a follow-up to the prior thread about A.J. Burnett’s chances of improving in 2011 addressing TedK’s question about age.
I broke down my list of 1257 pitchers by the age they were during the second year of the three year FIP comparison. Again, these are all pitchers who pitched at least 100 consecutive innings in three straight seasons and saw their FIP rise by at least 0.30 in the second season.
I used the age groupings 21-25, 26-30, 31-35 and 36+. It doesn’t really break down evenly since player peak is generally in the 26-30 range, so that’s where most of the pitchers fell. If anyone wants to look at the data themselves I’ve posted a revised version with ages here.
Anyway, by age here’s how it broke down:
| Age | # | dFIP | FIP n-1 | FIP n | FIP n+1 | d N+1 | Improved | % | Declined | % |
| 21-25 | 199 | 0.77 | 3.47 | 4.21 | 3.89 | -0.32 | 141 | 70.9% | 58 | 29.1% |
| 26-30 | 602 | 0.75 | 3.61 | 4.31 | 4.06 | -0.25 | 390 | 64.8% | 212 | 35.2% |
| 31-35 | 344 | 0.74 | 3.55 | 4.25 | 4.13 | -0.11 | 203 | 59.0% | 141 | 41.0% |
| 36+ | 112 | 0.73 | 3.54 | 4.27 | 4.19 | -0.08 | 65 | 58.0% | 47 | 42.0% |
Age: Duh
#: Number of pitchers in this age group
FIP n-1: FIP in the first of the three seasons
FIP n: FIP in the second season (the FIP that went up by at least 0.30 runs per nine)
FIP n+1: FIP in the third season
d N+1: FIP n minus FIP n+1 (negative number means improvement)
Improved/% # of pitchers who improved/percentage
Declined/%: # of pitchers who declined/percentage
Again, I’ll mention the selection bias that is in here. Basically if the decline in FIP was a manifestation of a true decline in a player’s ability, there’s a good chance he didn’t get to pitch 100 innings in year three.
Since Burnett’s in that 31-35 age group, this data indicates he’s less likely to improve than he would be otherwise, but he’s still more likely to improve than not.
That’s something, I guess.
Monday, January 3, 2011
How Likely Is It that A.J. Burnett Will Be Better in 2011?
With it looking more and more like the Yankees are going to really need an effective A.J. Burnett in 2011, I wanted to take a quick and dirty look at players who had similar drop-offs in performance in a season and how they did in the next season.
Now by RA or ERA, Burnett was far worse in 2010 than he was in 2009 (1.38 runs per nine worse in RA and 1.21 runs per nine worse in ERA). However, since single-season RA/ERA can be skewed by factors that aren’t directly in a pitcher’s control, I thought it would be better to look at this using FIP.
FIP isn’t perfect since it assumes that pitchers have no control over batting average on balls in play(BABIP), which isn’t true. There is a BABIP skill among pitchers but it just needs a lot of balls in play to ascertain it, and for the most part the variation isn’t huge. However, if we’re comparing a pitcher to himself then that isn’t really an issue.
So the first question is how much was worse was Burnett’s FIP in 2010 than it was in 2009? The answer is actually not that much. I get a 4.38 FIP for 2009 and a 4.79 FIP for 2010. I haven’t adjusted any of this for park, so it is different than what Fangraphs shows, but I don’t think that matters much here.
I decided to select all pitchers who pitched at least 100 innings in three consecutive seasons from 1969 through 2010, who had a FIP that increased by at least 0.30 in the second year. So Burnett’s 2009 would be year 1, 2010 would be year 2, while we wait with anticipation for year 3.
I got a list of 1257 pitchers plus Burnett. I don’t see the sense in posting the list here, but if anyone wants to look at it you can download it here.
Of those 1257 pitchers, 799 (63.6%) improved in year 3, and 458 (36.4%) got worse.
Now there’s some selection bias here, since pitchers who didn’t improve probably didn’t get to that 100 inning threshold in year 3, so keep that in mind.
The average reduction in FIP of all pitchers who did pitch 100 innings in year three was around -0.21. So if Burnett does that he’ll be at a FIP of around 4.58, which is a hair worse than what CAIRO has him projected for in 2010 (4.48).
So yeah, Burnett’s got a good chance to be better than he was in 2010, although how much better is the question.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
What If the Yankees Go in 2011 With the 40 Man Roster they Have Right Now?
With it looking like the Yankees contract negotiations with Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera aren’t going to be decided any time soon, and with Andy Pettitte still undecided about a return, I was wondering what would happen in the highly unlikely scenario that the Yankees signed no one and traded for no one and went into the season with the team they have right now.
So here’s a run-through the position players and pitching staff using my 2011 CAIRO projections.
| Player | Pos | PA | wOBA | Outs | BR | Def |
| Gardner, Brett | LF | 575 | .331 | 368 | 73 | 13 |
| Swisher, Nick | RF | 600 | .356 | 386 | 85 | 2 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 625 | .369 | 403 | 95 | 0 |
| Teixeira, Mark | 1B | 624 | .382 | 388 | 100 | 3 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 550 | .382 | 345 | 90 | -3 |
| Posada, Jorge | DH | 500 | .352 | 322 | 69 | 0 |
| Granderson, Curtis | CF | 525 | .345 | 348 | 72 | 3 |
| Montero, Jesus | C | 500 | .335 | 336 | 64 | 0 |
| Nunez, Eduardo | SS | 475 | .286 | 334 | 43 | -1 |
| Starter Total | 4974 | .350 | 3230 | 690 | 17 | |
| Player | Pos | PA | wOBA | Outs | BR | Def |
| Cervelli, Francisco | C | 275 | .303 | 185 | 27 | -1 |
| Pena, Ramiro | SS | 200 | .274 | 142 | 16 | 0 |
| Curtis, Colin | RF | 175 | .295 | 122 | 17 | -1 |
| Russo, Kevin | LF | 175 | .286 | 121 | 15 | 0 |
| Laird, Brandon | 3B | 175 | .304 | 123 | 18 | 0 |
| Corona, Reegie | 2B | 150 | .289 | 104 | 14 | 0 |
| Golson, Greg | RF | 100 | .272 | 72.8 | 9 | 0 |
| Bench Total | 1250 | .291 | 870 | 117 | -2 | |
| Team Total | 6224 | .338 | 4100 | 807 | 15 |
BR: Projected linear weights batting runs
Def: Projected runs saved compared to average defensively.
The offense doesn’t really look that good, projecting to score about 40 fewer runs than last year’s team. I’d also be hesitant about assuming they’re a +15 defense given the uncertainty of Jesus Montero and Eduardo Nunez’s defense.
The pitching staff is actually even worse off right now.
| Pitcher | Role | IP | R |
| Sabathia, C.C. | SP1 | 210 | 91 |
| Hughes, Philip | SP2 | 180 | 89 |
| Burnett, A.J. | SP3 | 170 | 95 |
| Nova, Ivan | SP4 | 150 | 94 |
| Moseley, Dustin | SP5 | 140 | 84 |
| Brackman, Andrew | SP6 | 70 | 46 |
| Noesi, Hector | SP7 | 60 | 37 |
| Igawa, Kei | SP8 | 30 | 20 |
| Starter Total | 1010 | 555 | |
| Pitcher | Role | IP | R |
| Robertson, David | CL | 75 | 35 |
| Chamberlain, Joba | SU | 80 | 41 |
| Logan, Boone | SU | 60 | 32 |
| Mitre, Sergio | MR | 60 | 35 |
| Sanchez, Romulo | MR | 50 | 31 |
| Pope, Ryan | MR | 40 | 24 |
| Garrison, Steve | MR | 40 | 23 |
| Aceves, Alfredo | LR | 25 | 12 |
| LR | 0 | ||
| Reliever Total | 430 | 232 | |
| Team Total | 1440 | 787 |
If the Yankees don’t bring back Pettitte or Rivera and don’t sign Cliff Lee, here’s what they may look like. While I doubt Kei Igawa sees any time in MLB, I’m using him as a proxy for sub-replacement level pitching.
If Alfredo Aceves can come back healthy that will help the bullpen some, but it’s still a little ugly.
Adding it up looks like this.
| Offense | 807 |
| Defense | 15 |
| Pitching | 787 |
| Pythagenpat W | 84.5 |
Pythagenpat W:Estimated Pythagenpat wins
You can subtract a win from that 84.5 estimate for every ten runs below average Montero and Nunez may be defensively. So if they’re a collective 20 runs worse than average the Yankees would be more like an 82.5 win team.
Thankfully, it’s not very likely that the Yankees will go into 2011 with this team. Can they add the 10+ wins they probably need to put themselves solidly in contention with what’s available to them? That’s the next question.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
2011 Yankee Pitcher CAIRO Projections v0.1
It took a little longer to get these done than I had hoped, but now we’ve got the first set of Yankee pitcher projections to go with the hitter projections.
| Last, First | Tm | Age | Role | IP | H | HR | BB | K | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| Sabathia, C.C. | NYA | 31 | SP | 219 | 200 | 20 | 60 | 176 | 3.73 | 3.39 | 3.68 | 48 | 4.8 |
| Hughes, Philip | NYA | 25 | SP | 172 | 162 | 21 | 58 | 147 | 4.29 | 4.11 | 4.17 | 29 | 2.9 |
| Pettitte, Andy | NYA | 39 | SP | 163 | 167 | 16 | 51 | 119 | 4.43 | 4.03 | 4.07 | 24 | 2.4 |
| Rivera, Mariano | NYA | 42 | RP | 68 | 50 | 5 | 14 | 62 | 2.83 | 2.60 | 2.99 | 19 | 1.9 |
| Burnett, A.J. | NYA | 34 | SP | 187 | 191 | 23 | 74 | 156 | 5.14 | 4.77 | 4.50 | 17 | 1.7 |
| Chamberlain, Joba | NYA | 26 | RP | 106 | 102 | 11 | 40 | 100 | 4.68 | 4.27 | 3.94 | 9 | 0.9 |
| Robertson, David | NYA | 26 | RP | 67 | 64 | 6 | 30 | 71 | 4.17 | 3.91 | 3.68 | 9 | 0.9 |
| Warren, Adam | NYA | 24 | SP | 85 | 89 | 11 | 30 | 61 | 4.98 | 4.61 | 4.56 | 7 | 0.7 |
| Aceves, Alfredo | NYA | 29 | RP | 49 | 43 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 4.09 | 3.77 | 4.11 | 6 | 0.6 |
| Pope, Ryan | NYA | 25 | SP | 116 | 127 | 17 | 41 | 82 | 5.41 | 5.02 | 4.83 | 5 | 0.5 |
| Banuelos, Manny | NYA | 20 | SP | 61 | 65 | 8 | 24 | 44 | 5.31 | 4.92 | 4.77 | 4 | 0.4 |
| Stoneburner, Graham | NYA | 24 | SP | 58 | 62 | 8 | 22 | 41 | 5.26 | 4.87 | 4.83 | 4 | 0.4 |
| Logan, Boone | NYA | 27 | RP | 48 | 50 | 5 | 18 | 39 | 4.64 | 4.30 | 4.24 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Noesi, Hector | NYA | 24 | SP | 80 | 88 | 12 | 27 | 57 | 5.50 | 5.09 | 4.91 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Phelps, David | NYA | 25 | SP | 94 | 106 | 14 | 34 | 63 | 5.61 | 5.19 | 5.05 | 2 | 0.2 |
| Nova, Ivan | NYA | 24 | SP | 83 | 94 | 11 | 35 | 51 | 5.65 | 5.26 | 5.03 | 2 | 0.2 |
| Mitchell, D.J. | NYA | 24 | SP | 73 | 81 | 10 | 33 | 48 | 5.62 | 5.20 | 5.08 | 2 | 0.2 |
| Betances, Dellin | NYA | 23 | SP | 52 | 56 | 8 | 24 | 39 | 5.68 | 5.26 | 5.16 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Mitre, Sergio | NYA | 30 | RP | 72 | 77 | 9 | 21 | 43 | 5.24 | 4.66 | 4.69 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Brackman, Andrew | NYA | 26 | SP | 63 | 71 | 10 | 28 | 43 | 5.92 | 5.48 | 5.26 | 0 | 0.0 |
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher (using RA)
WAR: Wins above a replacement level pitcher (RSAR divided by 10)
I haven’t adjusted these for defense, although it’s not likely that’ll change much since the Yankees are effectively bringing back the same team next year. Chamberlain’s projection still includes his time as a starter, if he’s a pure reliever he should project about a half run better across the board (RA, ERA, FIP) and his inning total should be closer to what it was in 2010. Other than that I’d just say that projecting pitching is a crapshoot, so don’t take any of these projections as gospel.
It’s probably safe to say this team could use Cliff Lee and Andy Pettitte, huh?
I do have most of the minor leaguers projected already but didn’t want to include them all yet, so I just kept the ones that are most likely to be asked about. I will probably release the full CAIRO projections soon, which will have just about anyone who played above rookie ball in 2010.
Monday, November 8, 2010
Burnett’s 2010 Fastball
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | .250 | .338 | .401 | .334 |
| 2010 | .285 | .363 | .457 | .367 |
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | .222 | .312 | .352 | .303 |
| 2010 | .286 | .373 | .444 | .368 |
A.J. Burnett had a much tougher time against left handed batters in 2010 than in his first season as a Yankee. In addition to the jump in his overall line, Burnett's K-Rate against LHB dropped from 24.9% in 2009 to 16.2% in 2010, striking out 43 fewer.
One thing that stood out was the drop in effectiveness in A.J.'s fastball in 2010, particularly against lefties.
| PA | AVG | SLG | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 274 | .276 | .474 | .378 |
| 2010 | 190 | .371 | .648 | .472 |
A.J.'s 2010 fastball averaged 93.2 MPH, a loss of 1 MPH from 2009. He was also much less effective in throwing the pitch down and away to LHB in 2010.
| PA | AVG | SLG | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 83 | .250 | .325 | .271 |
| 2010 | 52 | .298 | .489 | .378 |
In addition to the drop in velocity, Burnett's fastball also lost some downward movement. In 2010, his fastball was dropping at a rate of 11.6 ft/sec as it crossed the plate, about 4% less than 2009. This loss of movement combined with a drop in velocity may have contributed to his reduced K-Rate to lefties, and decreased the effectiveness of his fastball down in the zone.
UPDATE: Burnett's Pitch Frequencies below the break.
All heatmaps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Really not too much a change in location, although perhaps slightly more pitches over the middle inside part of the plate in 2010. As far as down and away, it doesn't look like much changed in 2010.
I'm still figuring out the software, so forgive the lack of detail in this graph. The exact middle represents 94 MPH, right where A.J.'s 2009 ended. You can see his 2010 fastball velocity remained consistently below 94 throughout the season, even in the early months when he didn't completely suck.
Monday, October 25, 2010
USA Today: Moving on: Yankees begin mulling offseason upgrades
“I don’t know how you measure, quantify any of it,” Girardi said. “It all stinks.”
My careful and detailed analysis says this is dead-on.
Speaking of Girardi…
NY Post: Girardi deal likely to be for 3 years
There is no chance the Yankees and Joe Girardi announce a
contract extension today when the manager and Brian Cashman will talk at Yankee Stadium.
Eventually, a deal will be struck. Hal Steinbrenner and Cashman think highly of Girardi, who likely will sign a three-year deal.
As for Girardi’s staff, none of the coaches is signed beyond the end of the month.
There’s no backing evidence in the article, so take it for FWIW. If Girardi does sign for 3 years, it’s good news for Josh Hamilton, because it will give him a very good shot at beating Barry Bond’s career record for IBB. If it was only for two years, it may have been a bit tight.
In other “news”, A.J. Burnett keeps quiet as Yankees return to Bronx to clean out clubhouse following ALCS ouster.
There wasn’t much action in the six hours the Yankees opened their clubhouse to reporters Sunday, with just lefty relievers Damaso Marte and Boone Logan addressing the media on a futile cleanup day at the Stadium.
A.J. Burnett also made a late appearance Sunday at the Stadium, but the $82.5 million Game 4 ALCS starter declined to comment before cleaning out his locker for the winter.
So two of the three players who showed up, one of whom hasn’t pitched in four months, talked to the media? This is news? This is HEADLINE-WORTHY?
I hate the offseason.
Update: Eiland out.
Bob Klapish (and others) are tweeting that At Yankees press conference: Dave Eiland fired by GM Brian Cashman for “private” reasons.
Not sure it’s technically a firing since his contract was up, but either way he’s gone. Rick Kranitz was Girardi’s pitching coach with the 2006 Marlins and won Major League Coach of the Year from Baseball America, but is currently employed by the Orioles so I’m guessing he’s not an option. Wonder what Mel Stottlemyre’s up to…
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Rangers Whip Yankees To Take 3-1 ALCS Lead
Yeah, I know that the game isn’t technically over, but I’m taking my chances.
A.J. Burnett pitched much better than I expected, but you couldn’t help but feel that every out he was getting was coming on borrowed time, and that at any point he’d lose it. Unfortunately, the guy who makes the decisions in the dugout decided to keep him in there after getting five innings of two run ball out of him. I guess I’m fine with starting the sixth with him. Hell, I’m even fine with letting him pitch to Cruz after Guerrero singled. And once he got Cruz, sure, let him pitch to Kinsler.
But if you don’t think he can get David Murphy out, you don’t PUT THE GO-AHEAD RUN ON BASE INTENTIONALLY. That was epically stupid. You bring in Boone Logan to pitch to Murphy. If they pinch-hit with Jeff Francoeur, big deal, it’s Jeff Francoeur.
And you don’t leave Burnett in to give up a cookie to Bengie Molina that probably ended your season.
The offense gets some blame too, just like they should be getting for this entire series. Blowing a first and second no-out chance to build on a 3-2 lead with your 3/4 hitters up in the bottom of the fifth was probably just as important as the Girardi foolishness that followed.
I suppose losing Mark Teixeira doesn’t help either, although with the way he’s hit in the past two postseasons who’d notice him being gone?
So now we just hope this team can win three in a row against a team that’s outplayed them in just about every way for just about the whole series aside from one inning. Except for Robinson Cano, an oasis in a desert of suck.
Can they do it? Maybe.
Will they? Probably not.
When Bad Pitchers Get Postseason Starts
Through last night, there have been 2562 postseason games in MLB since 1903. 654 different pitchers started those games.
Of those games, 23 pitchers who had a higher RA than Burnett did in the regular season got at least one postseason start.
| NameYear | RA |
|---|---|
| Alex Ferguson1925 | 7.25 |
| Oliver Perez2006 | 7.19 |
| Hal Gregg1947 | 6.81 |
| Derek Lowe2004 | 6.80 |
| Chris Knapp1979 | 6.70 |
| General Crowder1934 | 6.62 |
| Dave Mlicki2001 | 6.55 |
| Brian Anderson2001 | 6.28 |
| Chuck Finley2001 | 6.18 |
| Bump Hadley1937 | 6.16 |
| Jeff Weaver2006 | 6.12 |
| Al Nipper1986 | 6.11 |
| Rex Barney1947 | 6.03 |
| Charles Nagy1998 | 5.95 |
| Tom Zachary1928 | 5.95 |
| Kent Mercker1999 | 5.91 |
| John Halama2000 | 5.83 |
| Bobby Witt1996 | 5.81 |
| Flint Rhem1930 | 5.80 |
| Tim Wakefield2004 | 5.78 |
| Dick Ruthven1981 | 5.77 |
| Waite Hoyt1931 | 5.76 |
| Chad Ogea1998 | 5.74 |
| A.J. Burnett2010 | 5.69 |
14 pitchers who had a higher ERA than Burnett did got at least one postseason start.
| NameYear | ERA |
|---|---|
| Oliver Perez2006 | 6.55 |
| Alex Ferguson1925 | 6.18 |
| Dave Mlicki2001 | 6.17 |
| Hal Gregg1947 | 5.87 |
| Jeff Weaver2006 | 5.76 |
| General Crowder1934 | 5.75 |
| Chad Ogea1998 | 5.61 |
| Chuck Finley2001 | 5.54 |
| Chris Knapp1979 | 5.51 |
| Derek Lowe2004 | 5.42 |
| Bobby Witt1996 | 5.41 |
| Joe Mays2002 | 5.38 |
| Al Nipper1986 | 5.38 |
| Bump Hadley1937 | 5.30 |
| A.J. Burnett2010 | 5.26 |
In slightly more heartening news, 77 pitchers who had a FIP worse than Burnett’s got at least one postseason start.
| NameYear | FIP |
|---|---|
| Dave Mlicki2001 | 6.50 |
| Catfish Hunter1977 | 6.15 |
| Livan Hernandez2007 | 5.73 |
| Rick Helling1999 | 5.68 |
| Orlando Hernandez2001 | 5.67 |
| Oliver Perez2006 | 5.67 |
| Rocky Coppinger1996 | 5.62 |
| Bob Wolcott1995 | 5.60 |
| Jeff Suppan2008 | 5.58 |
| Tommy Byrne1949 | 5.55 |
| Steve Trachsel2006 | 5.55 |
| Anthony Reyes2006 | 5.54 |
| Bob Turley1956 | 5.53 |
| Jeff Weaver2006 | 5.52 |
| Brian Anderson2001 | 5.51 |
| James Baldwin2000 | 5.51 |
| Les Straker1987 | 5.42 |
| Rex Barney1949 | 5.41 |
| Dwight Gooden1997 | 5.36 |
| Alex Ferguson1925 | 5.35 |
| Rex Barney1947 | 5.30 |
| Joe Saunders2009 | 5.27 |
| Dave Stewart1993 | 5.27 |
| Carl Erskine1955 | 5.26 |
| Jose Lima2004 | 5.24 |
| Charles Nagy1998 | 5.23 |
| Tim Wakefield2004 | 5.23 |
| Bobby Jones2000 | 5.21 |
| Bert Blyleven1987 | 5.21 |
| Jon Lester2007 | 5.20 |
| Freddy Garcia2000 | 5.19 |
| Russ Ortiz2000 | 5.18 |
| Paul Abbott2000 | 5.18 |
| Josh Fogg2007 | 5.17 |
| Joe Mays2002 | 5.16 |
| Paul Abbott2001 | 5.16 |
| Andy Benes2000 | 5.15 |
| Alan Benes1996 | 5.14 |
| Scott Kamieniecki1995 | 5.14 |
| Preacher Roe1953 | 5.14 |
| Al Nipper1986 | 5.13 |
| Bartolo Colon2004 | 5.12 |
| Kevin Appier2000 | 5.11 |
| Tommy Hunter2010 | 5.11 |
| Kent Mercker1999 | 5.11 |
| Roger Craig1956 | 5.11 |
| Ramon Ortiz2002 | 5.11 |
| Don Larsen1956 | 5.10 |
| Matt Morris2004 | 5.08 |
| Mike Caldwell1981 | 5.06 |
| Orel Hershiser1997 | 5.06 |
| Tim Belcher1995 | 5.06 |
| Jim Hearn1951 | 5.06 |
| Jack Billingham1975 | 5.04 |
| Chad Ogea1998 | 5.04 |
| Garrett Stephenson2000 | 5.03 |
| Art Ditmar1960 | 5.03 |
| Catfish Hunter1973 | 5.03 |
| Bump Hadley1937 | 5.03 |
| Don Larsen1957 | 5.03 |
| Pat Hentgen2000 | 5.01 |
| Don Larsen1955 | 5.00 |
| David Bush2008 | 5.00 |
| Ralph Branca1949 | 4.99 |
| Billy Loes1953 | 4.99 |
| Tommy Byrne1955 | 4.99 |
| Lance Painter1995 | 4.99 |
| Ruben Gomez1954 | 4.99 |
| Dave Koslo1951 | 4.98 |
| Tony Cloninger1970 | 4.98 |
| Brandon Backe2005 | 4.98 |
| Denny Neagle2000 | 4.97 |
| Masato Yoshii1999 | 4.96 |
| John Maine2006 | 4.96 |
| Woody Williams2006 | 4.95 |
| Andy Benes2002 | 4.95 |
| Russ Ortiz2004 | 4.95 |
| A.J. Burnett2010 | 4.95 |
None of these numbers have been adjusted for league context or park, as this is not meant to be anything close to a rigorous study, so keep that in mind.
We also need to remember that a single season’s performance is not enough to tell us how good or bad a player is. It’s likely that any pitcher who had a bad season but was still given a postseason start was better than whatever their regular season numbers showed.
Anyway, in the 37 postseason games started by pitchers who had an RA worse than Burnett’s in 2010, the teams went a collective 13-24.
In the 25 postseason games started by pitchers who had an ERA worse than Burnett’s in 2010, the teams went a collective 9-16.
In the 135 postseason games started by pitchers who had a FIP worse than Burnett’s in 2010, the teams went a collective 65-70.
C’mon FIP!
AJ Burnett’s 2010 Splits by Catcher
| C | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | CERA | BB/BF | K/BF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cervelli | 128.7 | 134 | 13 | 57 | 103 | 5.18 | 4.76 | 4.47 | 5.18 | 10.1% | 18.2% |
| Moeller | 20.7 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 5.66 | 4.79 | 5.57 | 5.33 | 5.6% | 16.9% |
| Posada | 37.3 | 51 | 8 | 16 | 27 | 7.47 | 7.23 | 6.23 | 8.45 | 9.1% | 15.4% |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
CERA: Component ERA
I don’t necessarily think this means anything, but I am not the manager of the Yankees so it doesn’t matter what I think.
Monday, October 18, 2010
2010 ALCS Game 3 Complaint Thread
The Yankees didn’t lose the ALCS tonight, but they sure did make it a lot harder to win.
Cliff Lee was outstanding. I’m not sure if it was better than Pedro Martinez’s 1-hit 17 strikeout game against the Yankees in 1999, but it was one of the best pitching performances I’ve seen.
Andy Pettitte was very good as well, but that just wasn’t enough tonight.
So now the Yankees hopes rest on A.J. Burnett tomorrow.
That should work out well.
Sunday, October 17, 2010
2010 ALCS Probabilities after Game 2
After splitting the first two games in Texas, and with Cliff Lee looming in Game 3 and A.J. Burnett looming in Game 4, I figured it’d be good to look at how the rest of the ALCS may play out.
To do that, I’ve set up a simulation that runs through the rest of the series using the actual starting pitching matchups and using the lineups both teams have used in the first two games. If a lefty is pitching, the lineups will be the lineups from Game 1 and if a righty is pitching the lineups will be the ones used in Game 2. I’m using CAIRO projections updated to include what happened in 2010 rather than just the 2010 numbers, since for the majority of players projections should tell us more than what they actually did in a single season.
So running through the ALCS 10,000 times, here are the distributions for the possible remaining outcomes.
| Result | % |
| TEX in 4 | 0.0% |
| TEX in 5 | 10.4% |
| TEX in 6 | 17.3% |
| TEX in 7 | 18.4% |
| NYA in 7 | 15.1% |
| NYA in 6 | 25.7% |
| NYA in 5 | 13.1% |
| NYA in 4 | 0.0% |
| TEX | 46.1% |
| NYA | 53.9% |
The last row is just the combined probabilities for each team winning overall.
The Yankees are still slight favorites at 53.9% overall. The most common outcome in these simulations was Yankees in 6.
Here’s how the series breaks down by game.
| Game | Road | Starter | Home | Starter | NYA w% |
| 1 | NYA | Sabathia | TEX | Wilson | 100.0% |
| 2 | NYA | Hughes | TEX | Lewis,C | 0.0% |
| 3 | TEX | Lee | NYA | Pettitte | 50.1% |
| 4 | TEX | Hunter | NYA | Burnett | 51.7% |
| 5 | TEX | Wilson | NYA | Sabathia | 57.6% |
| 6 | NYA | Hughes | TEX | Lewis,C | 53.5% |
| 7 | NYA | Pettitte | TEX | Lee | 46.1% |
Even with Cliff Lee in Game 3, the Yankees should have a 50/50 chance of winning. The fact is, Andy Pettitte’s a good pitcher, facing a Texas team that is a bit worse against LHP. Backing him is the Yankee lineup, which is a very good one even after what happened in Game 2.
Game 4 is going to be the key to this series. The projections for Hunter and Burnett incorporate past performance, which makes Hunter worse and Burnett better. It’s certainly possible that Hunter and Burnett are closer to what they did in 2010 than what they project to do going forward, but we just don’t know that.
There’s also the possibility that the Yankees go with CC Sabathia on short rest in Game 4 if they lose Game 3, but based on how he’s looked in his first two postseason starts, I doubt they’re going to do that.
So it’s safe to say that tomorrow’s game is important. Like, really, really, really, really, really important.
How important?
If the Yankees win:
| Result | % |
| TEX in 4 | 0.0% |
| TEX in 5 | 0.0% |
| TEX in 6 | 10.0% |
| TEX in 7 | 18.5% |
| NYA in 7 | 15.5% |
| NYA in 6 | 25.4% |
| NYA in 5 | 30.5% |
| NYA in 4 | 0.0% |
| TEX | 28.6% |
| NYA | 71.4% |
If the Yankees lose:
| Result | % |
| TEX in 4 | 0.0% |
| TEX in 5 | 21.1% |
| TEX in 6 | 22.9% |
| TEX in 7 | 19.7% |
| NYA in 7 | 19.2% |
| NYA in 6 | 17.0% |
| NYA in 5 | 0.0% |
| NYA in 4 | 0.0% |
| TEX | 63.8% |
| NYA | 36.2% |
Thursday, October 14, 2010
2010 ALCS Preview: Rangers vs. Yankees
Rangers in 3 or 4?
Well, we’re down to two teams in the quest for who gets to lose to the Phillies in the World Series.
The Rangers have returned to the postseason for the first time since 1999 and have won a postseason series for the first time in their history, beating the AL East champion Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS.
The Yankees weren’t even good enough to beat out the Rays for the AL East and instead had to back into the playoffs as the wild card. To put this simply:
A) The Rays are better than the Yankees as evidenced by winning the AL East
B) The Rangers are better than the Rays as evidenced by winning their playoff series against them
Despite this, they are actually going to play the games, so maybe the unexpected will happen.
Here’s how the Rangers’ position player project.
| Lineup | Pos | 2010 OBP | 2010 wOBA | Proj OBP | Proj wOBA | PA | Outs | BR | Def |
| Elvis Andrus | SS | .335 | .296 | .310 | .309 | 35 | 24 | 3.52 | 0.2 |
| Michael Young | 3B | .331 | .336 | .340 | .341 | 35 | 23 | 4.51 | -0.6 |
| Josh Hamilton | CF | .411 | .444 | .366 | .392 | 35 | 22 | 6.06 | 0.0 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | DH | .346 | .361 | .355 | .374 | 35 | 23 | 5.5 | 0.0 |
| Nelson Cruz | RF | .372 | .405 | .343 | .374 | 35 | 23 | 5.49 | 0.5 |
| Ian Kinsler | 2B | .380 | .357 | .352 | .357 | 32 | 21 | 4.59 | 0.2 |
| Mitch Moreland | 1B | .360 | .362 | .319 | .316 | 21 | 14 | 2.25 | 0.1 |
| Bengie Molina | C | .292 | .275 | .286 | .302 | 20 | 14 | 1.85 | 0.0 |
| Julio Borbon | LF | .304 | .287 | .314 | .297 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.0 |
| Andres Blanco | 2B | .326 | .298 | .311 | .297 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.0 |
| David Murphy | LF | .355 | .356 | .334 | .340 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.0 |
| Cristian Guzman | SS | .308 | .289 | .305 | .302 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.0 |
| Chris Davis | 1B | .279 | .267 | .286 | .319 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Matt Treanor | C | .285 | .266 | .289 | .277 | 6 | 4 | 0.44 | 0.0 |
| Jorge Cantu | 1B | .301 | .302 | .317 | .330 | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
PA: Plate appearances
Outs: calculated as (1- Proj OBP) times PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs over series estimate of playing time
Def: Projected defense over series estimate of playing time using an average of DRS, TZ, UZR and ZR
The Rangers offense isn’t great, but they’ve got some pretty good hitters and and a strong defensive team. One thing that they may benefit them is that they project slightly better against LHP.
| Vs. L | PA | wOBA | BR | Outs | |
| Elvis Andrus | 5.0 | .296 | 0.4 | 3.4 | |
| Michael Young | 4.7 | .356 | 0.7 | 3.0 | |
| Josh Hamilton | 4.0 | .365 | 0.6 | 2.6 | |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 4.0 | .391 | 0.7 | 2.5 | |
| Nelson Cruz | 4.0 | .387 | 0.7 | 2.6 | |
| Ian Kinsler | 4.0 | .378 | 0.6 | 2.5 | |
| Jorge Cantu | 4.0 | .340 | 0.5 | 2.7 | |
| Bengie Molina | 4.0 | .323 | 0.5 | 2.8 | |
| Jeff Francoeur | 4.0 | .331 | 0.5 | 2.9 | |
| Total | 37.7 | .350 | 5.2 | 25.0 | |
| Vs. R | PA | wOBA | BR | Outs | |
| Elvis Andrus | 5.0 | .278 | 0.4 | 3.5 | |
| Michael Young | 4.5 | .335 | 0.6 | 3.0 | |
| Josh Hamilton | 4.0 | .413 | 0.8 | 2.5 | |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 4.0 | .367 | 0.6 | 2.6 | |
| Nelson Cruz | 4.0 | .371 | 0.6 | 2.6 | |
| Ian Kinsler | 4.0 | .350 | 0.5 | 2.6 | |
| Mitch Moreland | 4.0 | .357 | 0.6 | 2.6 | |
| Bengie Molina | 4.0 | .292 | 0.3 | 2.9 | |
| Julio Borbon | 4.0 | .301 | 0.4 | 2.7 | |
| Total | 37.5 | .339 | 4.8 | 25.0 |
I’m assuming they would play Jeff Francoeur and Jorge Cantu against lefties since they project better than Julio Borbon and Mitch Moreland, but the Rangers may have reasons for not doing that. Even if they don’t, they still project better versus lefties, which is good for them since the Yankees would be starting lefties in four of the potential seven games.
Truth be told, the pitching staff is where the Rangers really shined in 2010. Here’s how they project.
| Pitcher | Role | 2010 RA | 2010 FIP | Proj RA | Proj FIP | IP | R |
| C.J. Wilson | SP1 | 3.66 | 3.59 | 3.93 | 3.68 | 13 | 5.7 |
| Colby Lewis | SP2 | 4.04 | 3.51 | 4.70 | 4.03 | 13 | 6.8 |
| Cliff Lee | SP3 | 3.56 | 2.59 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 15 | 6.2 |
| Tommy Hunter | SP4 | 3.87 | 4.99 | 5.19 | 4.98 | 5 | 2.9 |
| Neftali Feliz | CL | 2.73 | 2.97 | 3.51 | 3.06 | 4 | 1.6 |
| Darren O’Day | SU | 2.18 | 3.58 | 3.26 | 3.61 | 4 | 1.4 |
| Darren Oliver | MR | 2.97 | 2.64 | 3.41 | 3.43 | 4 | 1.5 |
| Derek Holland | MR | 4.71 | 4.04 | 5.94 | 4.63 | 2 | 1.3 |
| Alexi Ogando | MR | 1.33 | 3.16 | 3.75 | 3.77 | 2 | 0.8 |
| Dustin Nippert | MR | 4.37 | 4.95 | 5.47 | 4.97 | 1 | 0.6 |
2010/Proj RA: 2010/projected run allowed per nine innings
2010/Proj FIP: 2010/projected Fielding Independent Pitching
IP: Estimated innings pitched in this series
R: Estimated runs allowed in this series (Projected RA divided by nine times IP)
Obviously, we all know about Cliff Lee, the greatest postseason pitcher ever. Lee’s not scheduled to start until Game 3 though, with C.J. Wilson getting the nod in the opener and Colby Lewis following up in Game 2.
Wilson’s a lefty who was primarily a reliever the last few years, but was moved into the rotation this year and did very well. He may not be 3.35 ERA good, but he’s good.
Lewis was a pretty hot prospect a few years ago but put up a 6.71 ERA from 2002-2007 before winding up in Japan, where he pitched for the Hiroshima Carp in 2008 and 2009. Lewis pitched very well there and then made a triumphant return to MLB and put up a very good year. He doesn’t throw as hard as he did when he first came up, but he’s shown an improved slider and better command. His peripherals are in line with his performance too, so he looks like he’s a legitimately good pitcher now.
Cliff Lee has NEVER lost a postseason game. EVER. Think about how amazing that is. No one has every faced Cliff Lee in a postseason game and beaten him. In the entire history of baseball.
Seriously, we know Lee’s good, and the Yankees are probably going to have to beat him at least once if they want a shot at advancing.
I’m not sure if the Rangers will go with Tommy Hunter as their fourth starter, but it could be him or Matt Harrison I guess. Whomever it is, he’ll be better than A.J. Burnett at least.
Here are the Yankees’s position player projections. They’re the same as they were for the ALDS aside from adjusting the playing time to reflect a seven game series.
| Lineup | Pos | 2010 OBP | 2010 wOBA | Proj OBP | Proj wOBA | PA | Outs | BR | Def |
| Derek Jeter | SS | .339 | .322 | .361 | .346 | 30 | 19 | 3.99 | -0.4 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | .357 | .370 | .353 | .359 | 30 | 19 | 4.34 | 0.1 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | .366 | .369 | .372 | .388 | 30 | 19 | 5.09 | 0.2 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | .341 | .360 | .369 | .388 | 30 | 19 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | .382 | .394 | .356 | .376 | 30 | 19 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| Jorge Posada | C | .358 | .358 | .361 | .367 | 26 | 17 | 3.93 | -0.1 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | .323 | .343 | .334 | .348 | 25 | 17 | 3.37 | 0.2 |
| Lance Berkman | DH | .368 | .350 | .381 | .384 | 20 | 12 | 3.32 | 0.0 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | .379 | .358 | .356 | .325 | 20 | 13 | 2.3 | 0.4 |
| Francisco Cervelli | C | .350 | .311 | .314 | .296 | 5 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.0 |
| Marcus Thames | DH | .352 | .364 | .310 | .340 | 16 | 11 | 2.05 | 0.0 |
| Austin Kearns | RF | .351 | .336 | .335 | .326 | 5 | 3 | 0.58 | 0.0 |
| Ramiro Pena | SS | .256 | .237 | .296 | .274 | 3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.0 |
| Greg Golson | RF | .261 | .226 | .265 | .268 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.1 |
There’s really not much I can tell you here that you don’t already know. Expect to see Thames against lefties and Berkman against righties at DH, and I have a hunch that Francisco Cervelli will get a start with Burnett since they had such good chemistry this year.
And the pitching projections, again just adjusted for a seven game series.
| Pitcher | Role | 2010 RA | 2010 FIP | Proj RA | Proj FIP | IP | R |
| CC Sabathia | SP1 | 3.48 | 3.55 | 3.48 | 3.39 | 14 | 5.4 |
| Phil Hughes | SP2 | 4.24 | 4.29 | 4.56 | 4.12 | 12 | 6.1 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP3 | 3.63 | 3.96 | 4.35 | 3.97 | 13 | 6.3 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP4 | 5.69 | 4.81 | 5.11 | 4.68 | 5 | 2.8 |
| Mariano Rivera | CL | 2.10 | 2.85 | 2.43 | 2.77 | 4 | 1.1 |
| David Robertson | SU | 3.54 | 3.54 | 3.97 | 3.39 | 4 | 1.8 |
| Kerry Wood | MR | 3.33 | 4.09 | 3.99 | 3.95 | 4 | 1.8 |
| Joba Chamberlain | MR | 4.58 | 2.94 | 4.70 | 3.94 | 3 | 1.6 |
| Boone Logan | MR | 2.97 | 3.73 | 4.55 | 4.24 | 3 | 1.5 |
| Sergio Mitre | MR | 3.91 | 4.79 | 5.21 | 4.52 | 1 | 0.6 |
| Dustin Moseley | MR | 4.77 | 5.81 | 5.88 | 5.53 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Total | 63 | 28.9 | |||||
| 63 |
The Yankees will go with CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, Andy Pettitte and Burnett in the first four scheduled games, which sets up Sabathia, Hughes and Pettitte to pitch in Games 5-7 if necessary. Expect to see most of the relief innings going to Mo, Kerry Wood, Dave Robertson and Boone Logan primarily, perhaps with some Joba Chamberlain mixed in.
On paper, the Yankees are probably the better team. However, if we factor in the fact that the Rangers are better against LHP and the Yankees are worse against LHP, that narrows the gap some. Since the Rangers did the honorable thing by winning their division, they get home field advantage in this series, which narrows the gap a hair more.
I received an email asking me about this article at Fangraphs by Dave Cameron saying that there was no difference in win probability between Cliff Lee starting Games 1 and 5 versus 3 and 7 and running some simulations to show that it’s false. The only problem is, it’s not false. A team’s probability of winning a series is the sum of their probabilities of winning each game, and the order doesn’t matter, assuming playing time is the same. If you want to argue that starting Lee earlier means you have the potential to use him more later in the series, then I suppose that’s possible, but aside from that, it doesn’t matter which games he starts.
| Team | Offense | Defense | Pitching | Pythagenpat | p162 |
| Rangers | 35.2 | 0.4 | 28.9 | .603 | 98 |
| VS | |||||
| Yankees | 39.6 | 0.3 | 28.9 | .647 | 105 |
Pythagenpat: Estimated win percentage based on projected offense/defense + pitching, adjusted for home field advantage
p162: Pythagenpat times 162 games (full season win equivalency)
Anyway, based on these depth charts and accounting for HFA, the Rangers look like around a 98 win team and the Yankees look like around a 105 win team. So what happens if they play the ALCS 10,000 times?
Rangers: 45.2%
Yankees: 54.8%
Which is all just a fancy way of saying Rangers in 3.
NY Daily News: Phil Hughes takes ball for Yankees in Game 2 of ALCS
Phil Hughes will start Game 2 of the ALCS in Texas. That was the only surprise in the ALCS rotation the Yankees released Wednesday night.
In the AL division series, the 24-year-old righthander was the third starter, and veteran lefty Andy Pettitte started Game 2. This time, Pettitte will start Game 3 Monday at Yankee Stadium. As expected, A.J. Burnett will start Game 4 despite his wild simulated game Wednesday.
...
Obviously, the Yankees looked at Hughes’ history in Texas and could not resist it. In three career appearances (two starts) at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, Hughes has never given up a run. He is 2-0, has allowed three hits and walked four in 15-1/3 innings.
...
The Yankees also released their roster for the ALCS. There are no changes from the division series.
Since Texas is less susceptible to LHP, I like the idea of using Hughes second. I don’t think his history in Texas has any predictive value though, and I would kind of like it if Joe Girardi didn’t think it did either. So it looks like the rotation will be CC Sabathia in Game 1, Hughes in Game 2, Andy Pettitte in Game 3, and A.J. Burnett in Texas’s clincher. If by some miracle Texas hasn’t clinched after four games, you have Sabathia in Game 5, Hughes in Game 6 back in Texas, and Pettitte in a potential Game 7.
Speaking of Burnett’s wild simulated game, Yankees hurler A.J. Burnett hits Greg Golson and Austin Kearns with pitches in wild simulated start:
Even in a simulated game against Curtis Granderson and some Bomber benchwarmers, Burnett was less than stellar, reinforcing the fact that he’s the weak link in the Yankee rotation. His very first pitch flew over catcher Francisco Cervelli’s head, and his fifth plunked Greg Golson on the left arm. Joe Girardi and pitching coach Dave Eiland looked on from behind the mound as Burnett hit two batters - he also plunked Austin Kearns - and displayed iffy control, throwing around 80 pitches in four-plus simulated innings.
“They know I didn’t mean to do it,” a sheepish Burnett said of hitting Golson and Kearns. “But it’s still not a good feeling.”
No A.J., it’s not a good feeling.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
First Draft of the Postseason Roster
I still need to run my projections and do this with more effort, but I figured we could start goofing around with a what a potential 25 man roster for the postseason could look like.
First, here are the locks:
Starting Pitchers (4)
Sabathia
Pettitte
Hughes
Burnett
Relief Pitchers (5)
Mo
Robertson
Wood
Chamberlain
Logan
Catchers (2)
Posada
Cervelli
Infielders (4)
Cano
Jeter
Teixeira
Rodriguez
Outfielders (3)
Gardner
Granderson
Swisher
DH (2)
Berkman
Thames
That’s 20, which leaves five spots open to fill out the bullpen and bench. They’re probably going to carry at least one long reliever, and the best candidate for that is probably Javier Vazquez. If they’re playing Minnesota, they may want to take Royce Ring as a second lefty to deal with Jim Thome. Against Texas it’s less of an issue as most of their best players are RH. I really think they should try Nova out of the pen a couple of times during the last few games and see if he can be a second long man, one with a fastball that can crack 88 mph.
They’re almost certainly going to take one of Ramiro Pena/Eduardo Nunez and possibly both. Although Thames is in theory a candidate for the outfield, if they’re smart they’ll try to avoid putting him out there at all costs. 0 So that probably opens up a spot for Greg Golson as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner. Update: I forgot about Austin Kearns, he’d probably get this spot instead of Golson.
So the 20 locks plus Vazquez, Ring, one of Pena/Nunez and Kearns leaves one open spot. I’d like to see Nova get it.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Yankees.com: A-Rod’s blasts carry Yanks to top of AL East
Sunday, September 12, 2010
NY Times: A Total Loss in Texas Before the Yankees Head to a Showdown Series
ARLINGTON, Tex. — The visiting clubhouse at Rangers Ballpark has an eclectic décor: a few neon beer signs, a flag of Texas, a set of longhorns, some motivational sayings. One hangs above the primary bank of lockers.
It reads, “The road to success is always under construction.” So the Yankees learned this weekend, when the Texas Rangers sent them reeling into a crucial series at Tampa Bay with a three-game sweep.
If you want to know why the Yankees losing two of three to Baltimore before embarking on this road trip pissed me off, this series with Texas is Exhibit A. It’s hard to win games on the road, especially against good teams.
If the Yankees still want to win the AL East, they probably have to take two of three from Tampa Bay in this upcoming series. If they could actually beat Toronto the way Tampa Bay has they wouldn’t have to, but since they can’t then that’s probably what they have to do. However, given the way Joe Girardi’s managing lately, I’m not so sure they’re really going all out for the division.
Pitching matchups for the three games vs. Tampa Bay are:
Monday, September 13
Sabathia vs. Price
Tuesday, September 14
Nova vs. Garza
Wednesday, September 15
Hughes vs. Shields
I guess the fact that neither Vazquez nor Burnett is pitching is good. I can’t see the Yankees winning both of the final two games though, so let’s hope CC can help them take the opener.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Yankees.com: Burnett returns to form; Yanks win fifth straight
NEW YORK—Mark Teixeira drove in three runs and A.J. Burnett submitted a quality start in the Yankees’ fifth consecutive victory, a 4-3 win over the Athletics on Wednesday night.
The Yankees jumped on Oakland early once again, scoring once in the first and three times in the second to build a 4-0 lead. Derek Jeter got the ball rolling with a leadoff single off Brett Anderson, just the shortstop’s second hit in a span of 26 at-bats. He scored on Teixeira’s RBI double later in the frame.
Eh, I realize I’m probably spoiled but I don’t think six innings and three runs against Oakland is anything to be excited about, although I will take it over three innings and six runs. With Tampa Bay and Boston both winning, the Yankees pick up no ground, but drop their magic numbers by one.
Other important notes:
Pettitte’s latest bullpen session encouraging.
A-Rod takes BP, is practicing caution
Vazquez earns way back to Yanks’ rotation
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Whither A.J.?
Through his first seven starts of 2010, A.J. Burnett had an ERA of 1.99. A closer look at his peripherals over that stretch shows that he wasn’t really pitching quite that well.
| Dates | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | HBP | RA | ERA | FIP | CERA | AVG/OBP/SLG | wOBA |
| Apr 6-May 4 | 40.7 | 36 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 2.43 | 1.99 | 3.18 | 3.19 | .245/.305/.327 | .290 |
So we should have expected a correction, although his peripherals were indicative that he was pitching pretty well, even if he’d had some good fortune to that point. His FIP and CERA(component ERA) show that he should have an ERA in the low 3s instead of one under 2.
A little deeper look into his peripherals over those first seven starts paints a slightly less rosy outlook.
| Dates | BABIP | HR/FB | BB+HBP/BF | K/BF |
| Apr 6-May 4 | .289 | 1.6% | 8.5% | 17.1% |
The BABIP was a bit lower than we probably should have expected, although FIP corrects for that. More alarming was the fact that he’d allowed home runs on just 1.6% of his fly balls. That was an unsustainably low number, particularly given Burnett’s past numbers in that area.
I really wish I had an explanation for what happened since then, because Burnett’s been worse than replacement level.
| Dates | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | HBP | RA | ERA | FIP | CERA | AVG/OBP/SLG | wOBA |
| May 9-Aug 27 | 110.7 | 130 | 83 | 78 | 52 | 85 | 18 | 11 | 6.75 | 6.34 | 5.49 | 6.10 | .297/.379/.492 | .385 |
Since May 9, Burnett’s got an RA of 6.75 and a FIP of 5.49. The league is hitting close to .300 against him, and his wOBA against of .385 translates to being about 23 runs worse than an average pitcher over 509 batters faced.
| Dates | BABIP | HR/FB | BB+HBP/BF | K/BF |
| May 9-Aug 27 | .327 | 9.5% | 12.4% | 16.7% |
His BABIP and HR/FB corrected, and at the same time his BB/HBP rate increased by about 50%.
In total, his season line looks like this.
| Dates | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | HBP | RA | ERA | FIP | CERA | AVG/OBP/SLG | wOBA |
| Apr 6-Aug 27 | 151.3 | 166 | 94 | 87 | 63 | 113 | 19 | 14 | 5.59 | 5.17 | 4.87 | 5.32 | .284/.361/.450 | .362 |
FIP says Burnett should be a bit better than his overall season line, but still not very good. However, FIP ignores the fact that his HR/FB rate is still probably not all the way back up to where it should be.
| Dates | BABIP | HR/FB | BB+HBP/BF | K/BF |
| Apr 6-Aug 27 | .317 | 7.6% | 11.4% | 16.8% |
There’s really no reason to expect Burnett to pitch better going forward using the 2010 data we have so far. He hasn’t been unlucky in any true sense, and his actual performance in his peripherals is indicative that he’s been just about as bad as his raw RA/ERA say he has.
I try to hammer home the point about current performance not telling us everything about a player, and needing to be cognizant of a player’s past history when trying to project them going forward. However, it’s also important to understand that a significant change in a player’s ability can make their past performance useless in evaluating them going forward. This is especially true for a pitcher, especially one who’s in his 30s. See Cliff Lee as one example, or see David Cone as another. Cone went from an ERA+ of 137 to 70 in one season, albeit at age 37 instead of Burnett’s current age of 33.
We are almost certainly seeing that with Javier Vazquez as well, but in the big picture that won’t hurt the Yankees much in the future since they are only committed to him for 2010. Granted, losing Arodys Vizcaino in the deal could certainly end up looking like a massive mistake going forward, but that’s the risk you take with any trade involving a prospect. Having to flip off the MLB network whenever Pittsburgh highlights are on is a reminder of that.
The Burnett situation is more worrisome than the Vazquez situation, because the Yankees are committed to him for the next three seasons at a salary that should be worth 2-3 wins a year.
A lot of analysts thought the Burnett signing was a mistake, and I was not one of them. The general consensus was that Burnett would pitch pretty well most of the time but would continue to have problems staying healthy which would cut into his value.
However, what’s happening now is actually a far worse scenario. For all the crap Carl Pavano got for his seeming inability to stay healthy as a Yankee, as long as he was not pitching, he was only costing the Yankees money. What Burnett’s doing now is costing them both money AND wins.
I know the easy thing to do here is criticize Burnett’s makeup and think that he’s not pitching well because he’s a “head case”, but I refuse to engage in that thinking or discuss it. Unless you know the guy, you’re pulling crap out of your ass when you starting doing that. I pull enough crap out of my ass when I change the underlying assumptions and components of data to try to make the Yankees look better than they are, so I won’t be trying to do that with Burnett.
I’ll just hope that he can be fixed, because the Yankees need him to be better than this. Not just to make it to the postseason, but to win if they somehow get there.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Sporting News: Pettitte rehab stalls; Yankees lefty still sore
Andy Pettitte’s return to the Yankees has been further delayed. The team said in a statement Tuesday that an MRI exam revealed the left-hander still has “a small persistent strain of the left groin.”
Pettitte reported problems Tuesday after throwing lightly during batting practice. The MRI was scheduled soon afterward.
It’s starting to look more and more likely that a Pettitte return would not happen before mid-September, if at all. As far as what that means, let’s consider the worst case scenario, that Pettitte’s done for the season.
- With 43 games left in the season, we can probably assume each spot in the rotation will get 8-9 more turns.
- Dustin Moseley’s CAIRO projection is to have an RA of about 5.98 over the rest of the season compared to Pettitte’s projected rest of season 3.98. Moseley’s RA may seem high, but the fact of the matter is, he’s never shown himself to be as good as he’s been so far for the Yankees and there’s still not enough data to assume he’s established a new talent level.
- Now obviously, since Moseley’s not as good as Pettitte, we should probably assume he would average something closer to five IP/start than Pettitte’s six IP/start. We can give the ten inning difference to the bullpen.
- So you’re looking at something like 40 IP and 27 runs from Moseley and another 8 IP and 3.5 runs from the bullpen instead of 48 IP and 21 runs in the case of Pettitte
Unfortunately, it’s not that simple. The Yankees are also going to have to deal with:
Phil Hughes’s innings limit
I’m not sure Hughes’s innings limit is a big deal at this point. It’s generally thought to be in the 175 inning range. He’s thrown 134 innings and with 8 starts left, if the Yankees restrict him to 5 IP/start or skip him once he’ll be right there. Of course, we know that if you skip a pitcher’s start it will more than double his ERA over the rest of the season.
Javier Vazquez’s complete collapse
Frankly, this is probably the biggest problem the Yankees faced heading into the stretch run. I wouldn’t even try to project Vazquez at this point, because nothing he did in his career prior to this season tells us anything about him if he doesn’t regain his stuff. Really, I don’t envision a scenario where he suddenly picks up 3 MPH on his fastball after it’s been missing for five months. The Yankees should probably not be favored to win any of the games that he starts, because he’s pretty much replacement level at this point. With Pettitte gone, the Yankees don’t have the option to skip Vazquez a time or two to see if he’s really just dealing with dead arm, or to help him clear his head, or for whatever reason. If they wanted to pull him from the rotation now, it’d mean starting Sergio Mitre and Moseley in 40% of the games left this season. I’m thinking that’s not too exciting, but then again, is Vazquez and Moseley starting 40% of the games left this season any more exciting?
A.J. Burnett’s Jeckyl and Hyde routine.
I will project Burnett rest of the season. He’ll have an RA between 0 and 1,000,000,000 and will average somewhere between 0 inning and 9 innings per start.
Time is still on the Yankees side, and we need to be cognizant of that fact, but right now, this may be the worst version of the 2010 Yankees we’ve seen so far this year. Can the Yankees as currently constituted play as well as Tampa Bay is likely to play over the rest of the season? Probably, but maybe not. And while it’s true that Boston has to outplay them by six games with fewer than 45 games left just to tie them, it’s also true that they can match the Yankees in all non head-to-head matchups and then sweep them in the remaining six head-to-head games to do it.
Should we panic? No.
Should we be concerned? I think so.
If the Yankees were a 96 win team at full strength heading into the season, how good are they now without Pettitte, with Kei Vazquez instead of Javy Vazquez and with several of their key offensive performers having disappointing years?
I think the safe answer is, worse.
But they’re still pretty good, which we should probably try and remember.
Sunday, August 15, 2010
Yankees.com: Burnett drops duel to Royals’ Bullington
KANSAS CITY—The first sign of the frustrating afternoon to come for the Yankees was in the second inning, when the dugout jumped to witness a baseball exploding off Alex Rodriguez’s bat, only to see it die on the warning track.
A-Rod returned to the dugout shaking his head and cursing the wind, but by the end, the Yankees had run out of other excuses. Bryan Bullington worked eight magnificent innings to outpitch A.J. Burnett and post his first Major League victory in a 1-0 Royals victory on Sunday.
Bullington has seen action in five major league seasons (20 games, 7 starts including today), and has NEVER gotten a win. Until today.
Bullington’s longest outing ever in his career was 6 innings. Until today.
I’m not even encouraged that A.J. Burnett pitched non-terribly, because a) it was against the Royals and b) the only thing we can tell about the next A.J. Burnett start from the prior start is whether or not he’ll be healthy enough to make it.
The Yankees really should have taken three of four from Kansas City, especially after only splitting with Boston and Texas in the two prior series.
At least they’ve got Javier Vazquez starting tomorrow against Max Scherzer. Scherzer has been having a decent season so far, and is part of Detroit’s haul in the Curtis Granderson trade which is starting to look like a disaster for one of the three teams involved.
Monday, August 2, 2010
Yankees.com: A.J. Burnett Stinks
Discuss.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Yankees.com: A-Rod, Jeter highlight Yanks’ wild win
NEW YORK—Alex Rodriguez sent his 599th home run over the wall and Derek Jeter legged out the second inside-the-park homer of his career as the Yankees defeated the Royals, 10-4, on Thursday at Yankee Stadium.
Rodriguez’s knock on the doorstep of the 600-homer club came in the seventh inning facing Kansas City reliever Robinson Tejeda, who grooved an 0-2 pitch that was dispatched by A-Rod, rocketing over the right-field wall for his 16th home run of the season.
A-Rod had the option of trotting, but Jeter didn’t in the third, smashing a drive toward the New York bullpen that eluded David DeJesus when the center fielder crashed into the plexiglass fence and suffered a right thumb sprain. Jeter slid home safely with his first inside-the-parker since Aug. 2, 1996, off Kansas City’s Jeff Montgomery.
Despite the final score, this was a bit too close for comfort through the first 7 and a half innings. Brett Gardner’s arm saved the Yankees a big run, and Jorge Posada’s arm cost them one and almost cost them again. Posada’s clearly making the case to keep Jesus Montero at catcher, as it’s not possible he could be any worse defensively.
CC Sabathia wasn’t good, but he was due for a clunker, and managed to at least get out of the fifth inning, a sore spot for many of the Yankee starters of late. The Yankees are going to need innings with Andy Pettitte out for the next month, with Kei Igawa in an A.J. Burnett mask starting every fifth day and with Phil Hughes irreparably damaged .because the Yankees skipped his turn in the rotation once.
And don’t look now, but Mark Teixeira’s seasonal line is creeping to respectability. He started the night at .256/.366/.471 and exited it at .261/.369/.475. Now we can turn our attention to Jeter’s quest for a .400 SLG.