Tuesday, July 17, 2012
CBS NY: Yankees’ Gardner Suffers Third Setback; CC Set To Return
NEW YORK (WFAN/AP) — CC Sabathia found the whole experience of his first trip to the disabled list with the Yankees a little “embarrassing,” and he is looking forward to making his first start in more than two weeks.
Brett Gardner might have to wait even longer to return from an elbow injury.
Sabathia will make his first start since June 24 on Tuesday night against Toronto. Out with a groin strain, he says he’s feeling well enough to pitch as long as he needs to and thinks the time off might have been more beneficial to his left arm than the groin.
...
Gardner was sore a day after he had four at-bats in a three-inning simulated game and was being kept off the field Monday. The speedy outfielder has already had two setbacks in his recovery from a strained elbow that has sidelined him since April 18.
At this point, Gardner may do the unthinkable and break Damaso Marte’s record for setbacks in a season. Are we comfortable with a platoon of Andruw Jones/Raul Ibanez and DeWayne Wise on defense for the rest of the year? Jones has a .339 wOBA vs. RHP this year and Ibanez has a .338 wOBA vs. LHP. The average AL LF has a wOBA of .331, so assuming that Jones and Ibanez can keep up what they’ve done the Yankees would be slightly better than average on offense although they probably give away some of that on defense. They can use Wise in spots where defense can be leveraged more optimally I guess.
It seems like a seller’s market right now with so many teams still having a reasonable chance at the second wild card, so I don’t know who’s available and what the price will be. Here are how I have each teams’ odds of qualifying for the postseason as of this morning.
| TM | PS% |
| Yankees | 93.2% |
| Rangers | 92.2% |
| Nationals | 83.0% |
| Reds | 78.7% |
| Braves | 71.5% |
| Giants | 61.8% |
| White Sox | 60.7% |
| Angels | 59.3% |
| Cardinals | 58.8% |
| Pirates | 46.6% |
| Tigers | 45.8% |
| Red Sox | 43.2% |
| Dodgers | 32.9% |
| Rays | 32.0% |
| Indians | 27.9% |
| Diamondbacks | 25.0% |
| Mets | 20.2% |
| Athletics | 19.2% |
| Blue Jays | 17.4% |
| Brewers | 11.5% |
| Orioles | 6.3% |
| Marlins | 4.6% |
| Phillies | 4.1% |
| Royals | 1.8% |
| Rockies | 1.0% |
| Mariners | 0.8% |
| Twins | 0.3% |
| Cubs | 0.3% |
| Padres | 0.3% |
| Astros | - |
I’d probably say any team under 20% should be a seller, but they may feel differently. So who may be available from those teams, and what would they cost?
Monday, February 6, 2012
Yahoo Sports: Yanks’ Joba Chamberlain throws off half-mound
TAMPA, Fla. (AP)—New York Yankees reliever Joba Chamberlain has started throwing off a half-mound as part of a rehabilitation program after elbow ligament replacement surgery.
Chamberlain threw at the Yankees’ minor league complex in Florida on Friday. The right-hander said the session on the 5-inch mound, which New York pitching coach Larry Rothschild and team vice president Billy Connors watched, went well.
Pedro Feliciano and Damaso Marte were especially impressed, considering it’s been eons since either one threw off anything other than flat ground.
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Yankees.com: Yankees decline 2012 option on lefty Marte
Sidelined by left labrum surgery last October, Marte, 36, attempted to make his way back this year by working out at the club’s Tampa, Fla., facility, but suffered setbacks. The Yankees will pay Marte a $250,000 buyout instead of a $4 million salary for ‘12.
Expect Marte to re-sign for three more years of setbacks and throwing off flat ground.
Remember when Marte struck out Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in Game 6 of the 2009 World Series? That was awesome.
Monday, June 27, 2011
Logan’s Location
As SG mentioned in the game recap from yesterday, Boone Logan has been good against lefties lately, after struggling earlier in the season. Through his first 14 appearances, he gave up 9 hits to lefties in 29 plate appearances, including two doubles and one home run. However, he's turned things around as of late, yielding just 4 hits to left-handed batters in his last 26 faced. Location seems to be a big part of his turnaround.
The big difference has been Logan's ability to throw outside to lefties. Earlier in the season, you can see that he was leaving the ball over the heart of the plate. But since May 15th, he's been able to keep the ball away, and the results have been much improved.
| P | PA | AVG | BABIP | K% | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 14 Games | 106 | 29 | .360 | .364 | 6.9% | .413 |
| Last 14 Games | 107 | 26 | .269 | .286 | 34.6% | .236 |
Logan has struck out 11 lefty batters this season, 9 of which have come since mid-May. Since tightening up his location, Lefties have been swinging and missing more against him. Prior to May 15th, opposing LHB were making contact on 81.4% of their swings against Logan. But in the past 6 weeks, that number has dropped to 70.2%.
Opposing batters are also chasing more of Logan's pitches out of the zone (25.6% to 31.3%). This is one of the many benefits that come with locating on the edges. Batters are forced to swing more at those questionable pitches outside so as to avoid getting caught looking.
So if Damaso Marte and Pedro Feliciano just play catch for the rest of the season, Logan's effectiveness could be all the more crucial; especially if the Yankees plan on winning more than one game against the lefty heavy Boston Red Sox this season.
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Team A vs. Team B
| Team | RS/G | RA/G | w% | Pyth w% |
| A | 4.58 | 3.85 | .462 | .579 |
| B | 5.23 | 4.06 | .646 | .617 |
I’ve gotten the sense that Yankees lose the opener of every series at a percentage disproportional to their overall record, and so far that’s certainly happening. They’ve gone 12-14 in series openers and 31-17 in all other games. Despite that, as the numbers above show, it’s more of a statistical curiosity than anything else.
In other news, Yankees’ Phil Hughes has mixed results in second rehab start:
Hughes, who went on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation April 15, hit a high of 94 miles per hour on the radar gun, but was typically throwing his four-seam fastball between 90 and 92 mph.
Hughes felt his most effective pitch was his cut fastball, which he throws around 87 mph, while he struggled to get his curveball over for strikes. New Britain, the Twins’ Double-A affiliate, scored one run against Hughes, on three hits. Two of those hits were infield singles, but there were several hard-hit outs. Hughes struck out three, but only produced six swings-and-misses and struggled to put hitters away.
Looks like he’s still got a few more games of rehab ahead of him.
In other injury news, Soriano to see doc; Feliciano to throw.
Reliever Rafael Soriano is expected to see a doctor on Monday and hopes to get a clearer idea of when he can start throwing.
Take your time Soriano.
Joe Girardi also said that Pedro Feliciano, who has missed the entire regular season with a left rotator cuff strain, will play catch tomorrow.
[...]
Another left-handed specialist, Damaso Marte, will play catch on Monday. Marte is out indefinitely with left shoulder labrum inflammation. He had offseason shoulder surgery to correct the problem.
I would love to have a job where I was paid $4 million a year to play catch once every two months.
In other injury news, infielder Eric Chavez continues to work in the battting cage but still has not tested his foot injury by running on it. Chavez has been out since May 6 with a fractured left foot. He is on the 60-day disabled list.
Bold prediction: Chavez and Mark Prior will come off the DL on the same day which will be the equivalent of matter and anti-matter coming into contact with each other.
Sunday, March 27, 2011
NJ.com: Yankees reliever Pedro Feliciano likely to start season on disabled list
The left-handed reliever is still feeling the effects of upper arm soreness that has sidelined him since March 9. He came away from some light throwing with discomfort.
It’s not exactly the beginning the Yankees had in mind when they signed Feliciano to two-year, $8 million deal, hoping use the kind of durability he showed with the Mets.
Feliciano’s possible absence leaves the door open for lefty Steven Garrison, a 24-year-old Trenton native that the Yankees claimed off waivers last September. Girardi named Garrison as a candidate for the job.
If signing Feliciano was done with the idea of replacing Damaso Marte, he’ll fit right in on the DL.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
NY Times: Yankees Test a Keeper and Encounter a Castoff
FORT MYERS, Fla. — This month is the third anniversary of one of the Yankees’ scouting coups, when Alfredo Aceves and Manny Banuelos were among four players plucked from their team in Mexico, Sultanes de Monterrey, for $450,000.
Their reunion occurred on Monday night at City of Palms Stadium, in a diluted edition of the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry, in front of a national television audience, with each surprising his employer this spring training in a different way.
Aceves, a valuable member of the Yankees’ 2009 championship team, has seemingly rebounded from double-barreled adversity — a back injury that cost him most of last season and a fractured collarbone sustained in a November motorcycle accident — to emerge as a candidate for Boston’s bullpen.
Banuelos, a prized 20-year-old left-hander bound for Class AA Trenton, has impressed the Yankees with his poise and command, eliciting gushing praise from the usually low-key Joe Girardi — and from Red Sox Manager Terry Francona.
Pitching in and out of trouble most of the night, Banuelos still fired two and two-thirds scoreless innings in Boston’s 2-1 victory and struck out Carl Crawford and Kevin Youkilis, his final batter, on a dastardly changeup.
...
Aceves’s magical career arc with the Yankees — he soared from Class A Tampa to the majors in three months in 2008 — flattened at Fenway Park, of all places, when his lower back stiffened as he ran to cover first base last May 8.
It bothered him for the next four months, his season ending in a Class AAA rehabilitation assignment. The potential for more problems persuaded the Yankees not to tender him a contract.
“We could not get him healthy,” General Manager Brian Cashman said, “and I’ll leave it at that.”
That didn’t stop you from tearing up a one year option on Damaso Marte so you could pay him to not pitch for three years, did it?
The decision to non-tender Aceves because of one season of injury struck me as foolish at the time, and it’s starting to look even worse. Then again, I don’t know that he’s got the arsenal to be a full-time major league starter and the Yankee bullpen is pretty stacked right now.
I didn’t see the game last night, so I’d be curious about how Banuelos looked if anyone who saw it wants to comment on it.
Thursday, December 16, 2010
NBC Sports - Report: Yanks ‘getting close’ with Feliciano
Feliz Navidad!
According to Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record, the Yankees are “getting close” on Pedro Feliciano.
The rubber-armed left-hander has also drawn interest from the Red Sox and Phillies, among others.
Feliciano’s a lefty-specialist who throws a fastball that averages around 87 mph, but what makes him good is his slider, and to a lesser extent, his changeup. Over the past three seasons here are his splits vs. LHB and RHB.
| split | pa | ab | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | so | gdp | hbp | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | ip | cera |
| vs RHB as LHP | 345 | 289 | 94 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 50 | 55 | 11 | 1 | .325 | .420 | .474 | .357 | 68.7 | 6.22 |
| vs LHB as LHP | 414 | 377 | 80 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 110 | 13 | 8 | .212 | .271 | .310 | .261 | 103.3 | 2.12 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
cera: Component ERA
That .420 OBP vs. RHB includes 18 intentional walks, so keep that in mind. Even if you take those out he has still gotten hit at a .325/.367/.474 clip against righties so you obviously don’t want him facing too many of them. But he’s definitely someone that can help the team versus lefties.
I’ve mentioned this in the past but it bears repeating. The value of a player like Feliciano can’t really be assessed using a simple runs saved above/below replacement. He’s a tactical option that can be utilized specifically in high-leverage situations in ways that can have a much bigger impact on win expectancy.
It’s almost certain that barring a significant trade the Yankees will project to be worse than the Red Sox heading into the season. However, the gap is probably not going to be huge. If Boston’s a 95 win team and the Yankees are a 90 win team, if they were the only two teams in the division then we’d expect Boston to have something like a 53% chance at the division compared to the Yankees at 47%.
If you assume a replacement-level reliever has a 6.00 RA against a lefty batter and Feliciano is 2.50, then in one PA the difference in run value is only 0.128 runs. However, if that situation comes up with the tying run on third and the go-ahead run on second in the eighth inning and with David Ortiz at the plate in a game in Fenway park, its leverage is huge. Not just in that game, but in the way we’d expect the season to play out. Boston should be expected to win those home games against the Yankees, and that’s part of the reason they would be favored to win the division. If Feliciano gets Ortiz out there, then now maybe the Red Sox are a 94 win team and the Yankees are a 91 win team. Suddenly Boston’s division winning odds are 52% and the Yankees’ are 48%.
It’s also worth noting that the Red Sox lineup is heavily left-handed with Crawford, Ellsbury,Gonzalez, Ortiz and Drew.
I’ve been thinking a lot about what Texas did at the end of the year and in the postseason, stocking their 40 man roster with relievers that they could pick and choose from in ways that would give them a slight edge in different postseason series depending on the matchups, and it’s another way I think the Yankees could pick up a win around the margins. Load up on lefties that you can move up and down from the minors depending on whatever space you have on the 40 man and then play the options game prior to a series with Boston. The Yankees have Boone Logan, Robert Fish, Steve Garrison and Damaso Marte as lefties on the 40 man roster right now(although there are indications Marte’s not pitching in 2011) so perhaps they’re thinking along these lines.
Of course the truth is Boston’s about a 130 win team and the Yankees are maybe an 80 win team, so Boston’s odds for the division would only drop from 81% to 80%, but hey it’s the holiday season so we can dream the unthinkable, right?
So yeah, I like this move if it comes to pass.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Baseball American: New York Yankees Top Ten Prospects for 2011
1. Jesus Montero, c
2. Gary Sanchez, c
3. Dellin Betances, rhp
4. Manny Banuelos, lhp
5. Andrew Brackman, rhp
6. Austin Romine, c
7. Hector Noesi, rhp
8. Eduardo Nunez, ss/3b
9. Slade Heathcott, of
10. Brandon Laird, 3bNew York had breakthrough after breakthrough in the minors, with power-armed righthanders Dellin Betances and Andrew Brackman having their best seasons and second-tier prospects such as third baseman Brandon Laird, righty Ivan Nova and infielder Eduardo Nunez turning in strong performances at upper levels. The top three affiliates reached the playoffs, with high Class A Tampa winning the Florida State League title.
Prospects? Are those the things that get traded for Javier Vazquez and Damaso Marte?
Monday, October 25, 2010
USA Today: Moving on: Yankees begin mulling offseason upgrades
“I don’t know how you measure, quantify any of it,” Girardi said. “It all stinks.”
My careful and detailed analysis says this is dead-on.
Speaking of Girardi…
NY Post: Girardi deal likely to be for 3 years
There is no chance the Yankees and Joe Girardi announce a
contract extension today when the manager and Brian Cashman will talk at Yankee Stadium.
Eventually, a deal will be struck. Hal Steinbrenner and Cashman think highly of Girardi, who likely will sign a three-year deal.
As for Girardi’s staff, none of the coaches is signed beyond the end of the month.
There’s no backing evidence in the article, so take it for FWIW. If Girardi does sign for 3 years, it’s good news for Josh Hamilton, because it will give him a very good shot at beating Barry Bond’s career record for IBB. If it was only for two years, it may have been a bit tight.
In other “news”, A.J. Burnett keeps quiet as Yankees return to Bronx to clean out clubhouse following ALCS ouster.
There wasn’t much action in the six hours the Yankees opened their clubhouse to reporters Sunday, with just lefty relievers Damaso Marte and Boone Logan addressing the media on a futile cleanup day at the Stadium.
A.J. Burnett also made a late appearance Sunday at the Stadium, but the $82.5 million Game 4 ALCS starter declined to comment before cleaning out his locker for the winter.
So two of the three players who showed up, one of whom hasn’t pitched in four months, talked to the media? This is news? This is HEADLINE-WORTHY?
I hate the offseason.
Update: Eiland out.
Bob Klapish (and others) are tweeting that At Yankees press conference: Dave Eiland fired by GM Brian Cashman for “private” reasons.
Not sure it’s technically a firing since his contract was up, but either way he’s gone. Rick Kranitz was Girardi’s pitching coach with the 2006 Marlins and won Major League Coach of the Year from Baseball America, but is currently employed by the Orioles so I’m guessing he’s not an option. Wonder what Mel Stottlemyre’s up to…
Thursday, August 12, 2010
NY Post: Yankees’ Granderson sits for hitting overhaul
ARLINGTON, Texas—Having hit very little but rock bottom Curtis Granderson went to Kevin Long Tuesday for help.
Granderson, the Yankees’ biggest off-season acquisition who was counted on to replace some of the left-handed power lost when Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui departed, figured there was only one direction his hack could go and it wasn’t down.
“He said, ‘How much worse can it get?’ ” Long said before the Yankees’ 7-6 come-from-behind victory over the Rangers last night. “I agreed.”
So, the hitting coach went to work on Granderson with such intensity that Long asked Joe Girardi to give him a few more sessions before the left-handed hitting center fielder returns to the lineup.
I may be nuts, but I think Granderson’s going to finish off the year well.
Also of note from the same article:
Andy Pettitte takes a big step today in his rehab program from a left groin injury in Tampa when he pitches in a simulated situation. If Pettitte doesn’t experience any problems, he would likely pitch in a minor league game Tuesday in Trenton (Double-A). When Pettitte went down on July 18, the Yankees hoped he would be back by Sept. 1. Providing there are no setbacks he might return before then.
Yeah, hurry back Andy.
Versatile reliever Alfredo Aceves will make a second rehab appearance tomorrow night for Trenton and the hope is that he is sharper than Tuesday night when he worked two-thirds of an inning, walked two and fanned one.
“He wasn’t sharp but I am not surprised, he hasn’t been on the mound since [May 8],” Girardi said.
What’s next after Friday hasn’t been decided.
If Aceves comes back, suddenly the Yankee bullpen looks pretty strong to me. I’m assuming Chad Gaudin goes, which means a pen of Dustin Moseley, Sergio Mitre, Boone Logan, Joba Chamberlain, Kerry Wood, David Robertson and Mo. I’d imagine that when Damaso Marte comes back it, it would probably be after rosters expand, at which point they’ll probably use September to finalize the bullpen the Yankees would take into the postseason if by some miracle they sneak in. The obvious choice would be to take only one of Mitre/Moseley.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
2010 All Star Break Review - June Edition
A little late, but following up on April and May here’s the June All Star Break review.
June looked like the Yankees’ easiest month on paper, with 18 of their 27 games at home, and with a bunch of those games against minor league teams from Houston, Philadelphia and Queens. Log5 would have estimated them winning about 18 of those 27 games.
| Series | Start Date | # Gms | xW | aW | diff |
| Orioles at Yankees | 6/1/2010 | 3 | 2.3 | 3 | 0.7 |
| Yankees at Blue Jays | 6/4/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 1 | -0.8 |
| Yankees at Orioles | 6/8/2010 | 3 | 2.1 | 2 | -0.1 |
| Astros at Yankees | 6/11/2010 | 3 | 2.3 | 3 | 0.7 |
| Phillies at Yankees | 6/15/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 1 | -0.8 |
| Mets at Yankees | 6/18/2010 | 3 | 1.9 | 2 | 0.1 |
| Yankees at Diamondbacks | 6/21/2010 | 3 | 1.9 | 2 | 0.1 |
| Yankees at Dodgers | 6/25/2010 | 3 | 1.6 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Mariners at Yankees | 6/29/2010 | 3 | 2.1 | 1 | -1.1 |
| Total | 27 | 18 | 17 | -1 |
xW: Expected wins for this series using log 5
aW: Actual wins
diff: Difference between xW and aW. Positive means team exceeded expectations
The Yankees did about a win worse than expected, with the home series against Seattle to end the month the biggest problem (this does include the game in July 1). It felt worse than that, but I think a big part of that was the drop in offense, as the team went from scoring 5.6 runs per game in April and 5.7 runs per game in May to 4.7 in June.
| Player | month | pa | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | so | sb | cs | gdp | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | br |
| Derek Jeter | 6 | 118 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 4 | .243 | .339 | .379 | .323 | 13 |
| Mark Teixeira | 6 | 116 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .250 | .353 | .460 | .359 | 16 |
| Robinson Cano | 6 | 113 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .333 | .398 | .510 | .398 | 19 |
| Nick Swisher | 6 | 117 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .240 | .325 | .423 | .328 | 14 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 6 | 90 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .244 | .311 | .463 | .333 | 12 |
| Brett Gardner | 6 | 71 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0 | .383 | .479 | .533 | .450 | 14 |
| Curtis Granderson | 6 | 100 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .239 | .300 | .457 | .325 | 13 |
| Jorge Posada | 6 | 90 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .203 | .344 | .351 | .323 | 10 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 6 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .180 | .275 | .246 | .250 | 4 |
| Marcus Thames | 6 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .071 | .133 | .071 | .108 | -1 |
| Nick Johnson | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Ramiro Pena | 6 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .136 | .240 | .136 | .200 | 1 |
| Randy Winn | 6 | 51 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .277 | .333 | .383 | .322 | 6 |
| Kevin Russo | 6 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .130 | .231 | .130 | .192 | 1 |
| Juan Miranda | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Colin Curtis | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Chad Huffman | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Chad Moeller | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .333 | .400 | .327 | 1 |
| Greg Golson | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
br: Total linear weights batting runs, not position-adjusted or compared to average/replacement level
Once again, Robinson Cano was the most valuable offensive player on the team although Brett Gardner has the best rate performance. Derek Jeter had a relatively rough month, and reality slammed into Francisco Cervelli’s over-sized batting helmet with extreme force. But in general, the team overall just didn’t have a good month offensively. The only players who hit at least as well as they projected entering the season were Cano and TSBG.
On the plus side, the team’s run prevention in June improved over May, falling to 4.3 from 4.4. Of course, that’s at least partially a function of only pitching to 88.9% of a major league lineup for a large part of the month, and a function of playing some bad teams.
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| CC Sabathia | 5 | 5 | 37.0 | 25 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 2.19 | 2.19 | 3.15 | 14.3 |
| Javier Vazquez | 6 | 6 | 39.0 | 26 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 3.23 | 3.23 | 4.48 | 10.6 |
| Andy Pettitte | 5 | 5 | 34.0 | 28 | 15 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 3.97 | 3.18 | 3.85 | 6.4 |
| Phil Hughes | 5 | 5 | 31.3 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 5.46 | 5.17 | 4.09 | 0.8 |
| A.J. Burnett | 5 | 5 | 23.0 | 35 | 29 | 29 | 9 | 3 | 17 | 19 | 11.35 | 11.35 | 9.24 | -14.5 |
| SP Total | 26 | 26 | 164.33 | 151 | 86 | 82 | 25 | 7 | 61 | 146 | 4.71 | 4.49 | 4.64 | 17.6 |
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| Mariano Rivera | 11 | 0 | 13.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.43 | 7.5 |
| David Robertson | 9 | 0 | 9.0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.53 | 4.2 |
| Boone Logan | 4 | 0 | 7.7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 3.33 | 2.4 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 12 | 0 | 10.7 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 4.22 | 4.22 | 2.45 | 1.2 |
| Sergio Mitre | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.70 | 1.2 |
| Chad Gaudin | 7 | 0 | 12.7 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 4.97 | 4.97 | 6.04 | 0.3 |
| Chan Ho Park | 9 | 0 | 11.7 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 5.40 | 5.40 | 3.46 | -0.2 |
| Damaso Marte | 8 | 0 | 5.3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 7.33 | -0.9 |
| RP Total | 61 | 0 | 72 | 57 | 26 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 65 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.53 | 15.8 |
| SP + RP | 87 | 26 | 236.33 | 208 | 112 | 108 | 29 | 9 | 93 | 211 | 4.27 | 4.11 | 4.30 | 33.4 |
A.J. Burnett’s June could’ve gone a little better. Phil Hughes also had a disappointing month, but the it’s tough to quibble with how Sabathia, Vazquez and Pettitte did. The bullpen had its best month of the season overall, with David Robertson finally starting to resemble the 2009 vintage. It’s easy to forget how dominant Mo can be at times, but look at that June line and marvel at his awesomeness.
Once again the Yankees ERA was lower than their FIP, this time to the tune of about six runs. So it’s probably a safe assumption that the defense played pretty well, even if they don’t deserve all the credit for that difference.
The Yankees’ run differential in June was by far their worst of the season, as they allowed 114 runs to go with the 128 runs scored, a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .554. So the Yankees may have been a bit fortunate to actually only miss their expectations by one game.
And since it was requested, here’s a WAR pie chart for the Yankees through Sunday’s games.
Not shown:
Boone Logan: 0.2
Romulo Sanchez: 0.2
Damaso Marte: 0.2
Juan Miranda: 0.2
Alfredo Aceves: 0.2
Ivan Nova: 0.2
A.J. Burnett: 0.1
Kevin Russo: 0.1
Sergio Mitre: 0.1
Greg Golson: 0.1
David Robertson: 0.0
Colin Curtis: 0.0
Chad Moeller: 0.0
Chad Huffman: -0.1
Dustin Moseley: -0.2
Mark Melancon: -0.3
Ramiro Pena: -0.3
Chan Ho Park: -0.3
Joba Chamberlain: -0.4
Monday, July 12, 2010
2010 All Star Break Review - May Edition
After a solid April, the Yankees headed into May hoping to continue their winning ways.
On paper, the May schedule looked to be a bit easier than April’s. In terms of expected winning percentage, the Yankees were expect to win 12.3 of 21 games in April, a winning percentage of .585. May had 30 games scheduled, and their log5 expected wins was about 18.3, or a .609 winning percentage.
| Series | Start Date | # Gms | xW | aW | diff |
| White Sox at Yankees | 5/2/2010 | 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.1 |
| Orioles at Yankees | 5/5/2010 | 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| Yankees at Red Sox | 5/9/2010 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| Yankees at Tigers | 5/13/2010 | 4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | -1.3 |
| Twins at Yankees | 5/16/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| Red Sox at Yankees | 5/18/2010 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | -0.1 |
| Rays at Yankees | 5/20/2010 | 2 | 1.1 | 0.0 | -1.1 |
| Yankees at Mets | 5/23/2010 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | -0.6 |
| Yankees at Twins | 5/27/2010 | 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| Indians at Yankees | 5/31/2010 | 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.2 |
| Total | 30 | 18.3 | 17.0 | -1.3 |
xW: Expected wins for this series using log 5
aW: Actual wins
diff: Difference between xW and aW. Positive means team is ahead of their projected pace
The Yankees took care of business in the first three series they played, taking two of three against the White Sox and sweeping Baltimore before shipping up to Boston and taking two of three.
Then came a disappointing series in Detroit where they lost three of four, when they probably should have split.
They finished off the month by taking two of three from Minnesota at home then splitting a two-gamer with Boston. Then came the first series of the year were they didn’t win a game, as Tampa Bay came into DNYS and took a two-gamer. Next up came a three game exhibition series against the Mets in Flushing, where the Yankees dropped two of three. However, for some reason Bud Selig decided exhibition games should count so the Yanks got saddled with a series loss.
They finished up the month by doing what they should have done on the road against Minnesota and Cleveland, winning both series and finishing up the month with 17 wins, about one win less than log5 would have expected.
The Yankees scored 171 runs in May, an average of about 5.7 per game. That was a hair better than April. Here’s how the hitters performed.
| Player | pa | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | so | sb | cs | gdp | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | br |
| Derek Jeter | 140 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 2 | .281 | .343 | .359 | .320 | 16 |
| Mark Teixeira | 134 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .280 | .366 | .475 | .368 | 19 |
| Robinson Cano | 125 | 39 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .336 | .384 | .509 | .390 | 20 |
| Nick Swisher | 102 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .374 | .441 | .670 | .472 | 23 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 118 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .330 | .415 | .534 | .414 | 21 |
| Brett Gardner | 127 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 2 | .286 | .370 | .375 | .339 | 16 |
| Curtis Granderson | 18 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .444 | .533 | .434 | 3 |
| Jorge Posada | 35 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .355 | .429 | .581 | .434 | 7 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 84 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .307 | .381 | .400 | .353 | 11 |
| Marcus Thames | 57 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .222 | .386 | .311 | .341 | 6 |
| Nick Johnson | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .286 | .412 | .643 | .441 | 3 |
| Ramiro Pena | 36 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | .235 | .278 | .265 | .249 | 2 |
| Randy Winn | 56 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .250 | .357 | .354 | .326 | 6 |
| Kevin Russo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .250 | .250 | .225 | 0 |
| Juan Miranda | 34 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .226 | .294 | .419 | .309 | 4 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
br: Total Linear weights batting runs, not position-adjusted or compared to average/replacement level
The injury bug hit the Yankees in May, with Curtis Granderson, Jorge Posada and Nick Johnson all going down, pressing Francisco Cervelli, Randy Winn and Juan Miranda into the lineup a bit more than you’d hope for. Cervelli was up to the task, but it’s probably safe to say the others weren’t so much.
Nick Swisher was the best offensive player on the team in May, hitting .374/.441/.670 with seven homers. Alex Rodriguez also had a good month, and although Cano dropped from otherworldly to really good he was also very valuable. Mark Teixeira also showed signs of life after a disastrous April.
In April the pitching staff allowed an average of 3.76 runs per game, but they fell off in May, going to 4.4 runs per game.
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| Phil Hughes | 6 | 6 | 38.7 | 35 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 3.03 | 3.03 | 2.81 | 11.4 |
| A.J. Burnett | 6 | 6 | 38.0 | 38 | 22 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 33 | 5.21 | 4.03 | 3.91 | 2.0 |
| CC Sabathia | 6 | 6 | 36.7 | 40 | 22 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 5.40 | 5.15 | 5.60 | 1.1 |
| Andy Pettitte | 5 | 5 | 31.3 | 29 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 3.16 | 2.87 | 4.51 | 8.8 |
| Javier Vazquez | 5 | 4 | 22.0 | 21 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 18 | 4.91 | 4.91 | 5.43 | 1.9 |
| Total | 28 | 27 | 167 | 163 | 80 | 73 | 22 | 4 | 52 | 132 | 4.32 | 3.94 | 4.34 | 25.1 |
rsar: runs saved above replacement level, calculated as n times league average RA minus pitcher RA time innings pitched, where n = 1.25 for starters and 1.15 for reliever.
May was the Phil Hughes show, as he was the most valuable pitcher on the team. Although his ERA went up by about a run, his FIP went down as he improved his walk rate from 5.5 batters per nine inning to 1.9. Andy Pettitte also continued to pitch well, and although Javier Vazquez’s final May line wasn’t very good, he ended the month pitching quite well. CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett both had rough months after good starts to the season.
Once again, the bullpen disappointed.
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| Sergio Mitre | 8 | 2 | 18.7 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 3.86 | 3.38 | 5.24 | 2.8 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 11 | 0 | 11.3 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 8.74 | 7.94 | 1.52 | -4.4 |
| David Robertson | 11 | 0 | 11.0 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 5.73 | 5.73 | 6.02 | -0.6 |
| Boone Logan | 10 | 0 | 8.3 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.60 | -0.2 |
| Chan Ho Park | 6 | 0 | 7.7 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9.39 | 9.39 | 7.50 | -3.6 |
| Mariano Rivera | 8 | 0 | 7.3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6.14 | 3.68 | 4.70 | -0.7 |
| Damaso Marte | 10 | 0 | 5.3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1.69 | 1.69 | 3.39 | 2.1 |
| Mark Melancon | 2 | 0 | 4.0 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11.25 | 9.00 | 4.95 | -2.7 |
| Chad Gaudin | 2 | 0 | 3.7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4.91 | 4.91 | 10.02 | 0.1 |
| Romulo Sanchez | 1 | 0 | 3.7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.38 | 2.1 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 4 | 0 | 3.3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.60 | 1.9 |
| Ivan Nova | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.53 | 1.7 |
| Total | 75 | 2 | 87 | 89 | 52 | 47 | 13 | 34 | 3 | 70 | 5.36 | 4.84 | 4.80 | -1.3 |
Even Mo had a rough month before going down for a while with an oblique injury. Joba Chamberlain had three spectactular disaster games.
On May 16 he started teh eighth with a 3-1 lead. He did manage to get two outs in between allowing two singles and a walk to load the bases, at which point Mo came in and did things he’d only done four times in his career.
a) He walked in a run
b) He gave up a grand slam
Apparently, one implosion wasn’t good enough for Joba, as he came in two days later on May 18 in a home game against the Red Sox with a 5-1 lead, and proceeded to allow four hits and four runs as Boston tied the game. An error in the ninth allowed Boston to score one against Mo and the Yankees had one of the most painful losses of the season.
Apparently, that wasn’t good enough either, because on May 29 he once again turned what looked like a sure win into a loss. This time, he came in with the Yankees ahead 10-6. Despite the fact that Cleveland had runners on first and second, the Yankees had a win expectancy of about 95% since there were two outs.
- A single cut the lead to 10-7, and the win expectancy to 90%
- A walk loaded the bases and cut the win expectancy to 85%
- A double cut the lead to 10-9, and the win expectancy to 67%
- Another double put Cleveland ahead 11-10 and cut the Yankees’ win expectancy to 33%.
- Another single gave Cleveland another run and cut the Yankees’ win expectancy to 21%.
Joba finished up strong though, striking out Shin-Soo Choo to end the inning and moving the Yankees’ win expectancy back up to 22%.
And hey, his FIP was 1.52 in May, so that’s something. I know bebop was wondering about Joba’s BABIP and if we could expect it to get better, and I’ll try and get to that in a few days.
The rest of the pen really didn’t do anything of note, although it should be noted that Chan Ho Park’s ERA of 9.39 was almost two runs higher than his 7.50 FIP, so he may have been a little unlucky.
As far as the defense, once again the Yankees cumulative ERA(4.25) was lower than their FIP (4.50). The gap wasn’t quite as big as it was in April, but that’s a difference of about seven runs. Again, I don’t think we necessarily want to give all the credit for that to the defense, but I’m sure they deserve some of it.
Despite the frustrating games where Joba turned what looked like wins into losses, in the big picture May wasn’t really a bad month either. You could almost say that to this point, the Yankees had been consistent.
2010 All Star Break Review - April Edition
With the All Star Break’s arrival, we have a chance to look back at what’s happened so far in 2010 and think about what it means going forward. So here’s a look at the Yankees’ performance in April.
| Series | Start Date | # Gms | xW | aW | diff |
| Yankees at Red Sox | 4/7/2010 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| Yankees at Rays | 4/11/2010 | 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| Angels at Yankees | 4/15/2010 | 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
| Rangers at Yankees | 4/18/2010 | 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| Yankees at Athletics | 4/22/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| Yankees at Angels | 4/25/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | -0.8 |
| Yankees at Orioles | 4/29/2010 | 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | -0.1 |
| Total | 21 | 12.3 | 14.0 | 1.7 |
xW: Expected wins for this series using log 5
aW: Actual wins
diff: Difference between xW and aW. Positive means team is ahead of their projected pace
April had the potential to be a very rough month, with 15 of the first 21 games on the road, including the first six on the road against arguably two of the three best teams in baseball.
After dropping the season opener, the Yankees went on to win four of five games against Boston and Tampa Bay to jump a bit ahead of their log5 estimated pace. They then went home to win five of six against the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles and the Arlington Rangers of Texas. Next up came a six game west coast trip which saw the Yankees pick up two of three at Oakland before losing two of three to California. The Yankees then headed to Baltimore and finished out May by taking two of three.
The key series in April was the sweep of the Rangers, as it gave the Yankees an extra win over expectations.
The Yankees scored 118 runs during April, about 5.6 per game. Here’s how the hitters performed.
| Player | pa | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | so | sb | cs | gdp | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | br |
| Robinson Cano | 83 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | .390 | .434 | .740 | .492 | 19 |
| Derek Jeter | 98 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | .330 | .357 | .521 | .379 | 15 |
| Jorge Posada | 66 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .310 | .394 | .638 | .435 | 13 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 96 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .250 | .344 | .440 | .345 | 12 |
| Nick Swisher | 83 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .247 | .337 | .438 | .343 | 11 |
| Brett Gardner | 63 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | .321 | .397 | .393 | .360 | 10 |
| Curtis Granderson | 82 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .219 | .305 | .342 | .292 | 8 |
| Nick Johnson | 81 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .138 | .383 | .224 | .318 | 8 |
| Mark Teixeira | 100 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .136 | .300 | .259 | .273 | 7 |
| Marcus Thames | 18 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .625 | .667 | 1.000 | .695 | 7 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .231 | .333 | .231 | .285 | 1 |
| Randy Winn | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .077 | .077 | .077 | .069 | -1 |
| Total | 798 | 185 | 35 | 9 | 25 | 90 | 12 | 129 | 18 | 6 | 14 | .266 | .360 | .450 | .358 | 111 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
br: Total Linear weights batting runs, not position-adjusted or compared to average/replacement level
Robinson Cano obviously stormed out of the gate, as did Jorge Posada. Derek Jeter and Brett Gardner were also strong at the start. The rest of the starters were a bit underwhelming, although Marcus Thames did very well in his part-time role.
On the pitching side, it was all about the starting pitchers.
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| CC Sabathia | 5 | 5 | 34.7 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 28 | 3.38 | 3.12 | 3.46 | 8.9 |
| Andy Pettitte | 5 | 5 | 34.0 | 28 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 25 | 2.12 | 2.12 | 3.17 | 13.4 |
| A.J. Burnett | 5 | 5 | 33.3 | 31 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 20 | 2.70 | 2.43 | 3.47 | 11.0 |
| Javier Vazquez | 4 | 4 | 20.0 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 18 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 6.45 | -7.4 |
| Phil Hughes | 3 | 3 | 18.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 18 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 3.76 | 7.4 |
| Total | 22 | 22 | 140 | 115 | 55 | 53 | 10 | 54 | 6 | 109 | 3.54 | 3.41 | 3.86 | 33.3 |
rsar: runs saved above replacement level, calculated as n times league average RA minus pitcher RA time innings pitched, where n = 1.25 for starters and 1.15 for reliever.
With one notable exception, the starting pitching was outstanding to start the season. CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes combined for about 40 runs saved above replacement level in 18 games. How good is that? To put it in perspective, if you had that rate of performance from your first four starting pitchers over a full season (132 games) you’d be 30 wins above a theoretical replacement level team. If replacement level is 60 wins, you’d win 90 games if the only thing you had was these four pitchers plus replacement level everywhere else.
The bullpen wasn’t quite as happy of a tale.
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| Joba Chamberlain | 11 | 0 | 10.3 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 3.48 | 3.48 | 3.39 | 2.0 |
| Mariano Rivera | 10 | 0 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.20 | 5.2 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 6 | 0 | 8.7 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5.19 | 4.15 | 6.20 | 0.0 |
| Chan Ho Park | 3 | 0 | 5.7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6.35 | 4.76 | 6.73 | -0.7 |
| David Robertson | 7 | 0 | 5.0 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10.80 | 10.80 | 3.80 | -3.1 |
| Damaso Marte | 9 | 0 | 4.7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5.79 | 5.79 | 7.27 | -0.3 |
| Sergio Mitre | 3 | 0 | 4.3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2.08 | 2.08 | 3.66 | 1.5 |
| Boone Logan | 3 | 0 | 2.3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 4.06 | 0.4 |
| Total | 52 | 0 | 50 | 46 | 24 | 22 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 38 | 4.32 | 3.96 | 4.50 | -2.2 |
Before Joba Chamberlain became some hybrid of Juan Acevedo and Jose Veras, he was decent in April and of course Mo was Mo. The only real glaring weak spot was David Robertson, although in six innings anyone can look lousy, and his FIP was ok.
I don’t have the defensive data to look at the April split, although the team had a collective FIP of 4.03 compared to an ERA of 3.55. If you want to ascribe the entirety of that difference to the defense, they’d have been around a +10 overall. Of course, just because you need a large sample size of BABIP to ascertain a pitcher’s real skill doesn’t mean it’s not there, so it’s likely that at least some of that difference is due to the pitchers.
Anyway, unlike many recent Yankee teams, the Yankees started out well, which was nice.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Yankees.com: Burnett takes first loss at Camden Yards
NEW YORK—A.J. Burnett suffered his first career loss at Camden Yards as the Yankees were defeated by the Orioles, 4-3, on Thursday, averting a series sweep.
Fighting himself on an up-and-down evening, Burnett allowed Baltimore to regain the lead in the sixth inning. Luke Scott slammed his bat after lifting a one-out fly ball, but the ball eluded Nick Swisher’s leap at the right-field wall and dropped for a triple. Adam Jones followed with an RBI double to right-center.
Burnett lasted into the seventh, recording the first two outs before allowing a pair of hits and yielding to lefty Damaso Marte. Burnett was charged with four runs on eight hits, walking one and striking out five, taking just his third career loss in 15 starts against the Orioles.
And if the night wasn’t bad enough, A-Rod will see a doctor tomorrow due to tightness in his groin.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Yankee WAR Pie Chart Through Games of May 5, 2010
At 19-8, the Yankees have played at a pace that the mighty 1998 Yankees would have been proud of. More impressively, they were able to do it through what on paper looked like the hardest part of their schedule, although our estimates of the strength of the opposition may change as we move through the season.
So why have the Yankees been so good so far? It’s Pie Chart time!
WAR stands for wins above replacement. For position players it consists of batting runs above position-adjusted replacement level plus defense saved compared to average using an average of zone rating and UZR. For pitchers it’s just runs saved compared to a a replacement level pitcher using runs allowed per nine. These are context-neutral values, so they aren’t going to necessarily line up with actual game values once you factor in context.
Negative values don’t work with pie charts, so here’s the full list:
| Player | WAR |
| Andy Pettitte | 1.5 |
| Robinson Cano | 1.5 |
| A.J. Burnett | 1.4 |
| CC Sabathia | 1.2 |
| Phil Hughes | 1.1 |
| Brett Gardner | 0.9 |
| Jorge Posada | 0.7 |
| Nick Swisher | 0.7 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 0.6 |
| Mariano Rivera | 0.5 |
| Curtis Granderson | 0.4 |
| Derek Jeter | 0.4 |
| Marcus Thames | 0.4 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 0.3 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 0.3 |
| Sergio Mitre | 0.2 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 0.1 |
| Boone Logan | 0.1 |
| Nick Johnson | 0.0 |
| Damaso Marte | 0.0 |
| Greg Golson | 0.0 |
| Mark Teixeira | 0.0 |
| Chan Ho Park | -0.1 |
| Randy Winn | -0.1 |
| Mark Melancon | -0.2 |
| Ramiro Pena | -0.2 |
| David Robertson | -0.6 |
| Javier Vazquez | -1.1 |
As a team, the Yankees have been 10.2 wins above replacement level. I set replacement level at around 50 wins per 162 games, so over 27 games a replacement level team would win about 8.3 games. So those eight wins plus the 10.2 WAR = 18.5 wins, which is essentially what the Yankees have actually done.
Random fun with small sample sizes:
- Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes have combined for more than half of the team WAR at 5.3.
- Robinson Cano has been more valuable Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira COMBINED.
- TSBG = 0.9 WAR. A-Rod + Jeter + Teixeira = 0.9 WAR.
- The Yankee bullpen has combined for 0.4 WAR. Mariano Rivera has been worth 0.5 WAR.
Anyway, as always, remember that sample size is an issue, and that we should still expect players to play closer to how they projected to play going forward than how they’ve done so far this year. However, what’s happened so far can inform our going forward projections, so we shouldn’t ignore that either.
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Yankee Run Values Through Games of April 28, 2010
As promised, here’s how the Yankees look in terms of YTD performance.
| Player | Team | Lg | Pos | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | GDP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAA | BRAR | zRS | uRS | aRS | WAR |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | AL | 2B | 86 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | .390 | .430 | .701 | .468 | 19 | 9 | 12 | -2 | -3 | -2 | 0.9 |
| Jorge Posada | Yankees | AL | C | 65 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .316 | .400 | .649 | .438 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0.8 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 90 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .260 | .356 | .455 | .353 | 12 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | AL | RF | 78 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .284 | .385 | .493 | .382 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | AL | CF | 79 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | .243 | .329 | .414 | .327 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | AL | LF | 66 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | .310 | .394 | .362 | .348 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 0.4 |
| Francisco Cervelli | Yankees | AL | C | 21 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .444 | .524 | .500 | .462 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Marcus Thames | Yankees | AL | LF | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .563 | .857 | .591 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | -2 | -2 | 0.2 |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | AL | SS | 90 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .306 | .333 | .459 | .342 | 12 | 1 | 5 | -5 | -2 | -4 | 0.2 |
| Ramiro Pena | Yankees | AL | SS | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .111 | .111 | .111 | .100 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Nick Johnson | Yankees | AL | 1B | 78 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .143 | .385 | .232 | .318 | 8 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | AL | 1B | 92 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .133 | .293 | .253 | .265 | 7 | -4 | -3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -0.2 |
| Randy Winn | Yankees | AL | RF | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .077 | .077 | .077 | .069 | -1 | -2 | -2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -0.3 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs, not position adjusted
BRAA: Batting runs above an average player, not position-adjusted
BRAR: Batting runs above a replacement level player, position-adjusted
zRS: Runs saved compared to an average defender using zone rating:
uRS: Runs saved compared to an average defender using UZR:
aRS: Average of zRS and uRS
WAR: Wins above replacement, calculated as (BRAR + aRS) divided by 10
Robinson Cano’s been a monster offensively this season. Here are the AL leaders to this point.
Vernon Wells: 13.5 BRAR
Robinson Cano: 11.7 BRAR
Nelson Cruz: 11.1 BRAR
Justin Morneau: 10.2 BRAR
Miguel Cabrera: 9.5 BRAR
Evan Longoria: 8.8 BRAR
Jorge Posada: 8.7 BRAR
Ty Wigginton: 8.7 BRAR
Joe Mauer: 8.6 BRAR
Alex Gonzalez: 8.5 BRAR
Posada sneaks into this list too.
Unfortunately , Cano’s defense as reflected by both zone rating and UZR to this point takes away some of his value, although we have the standard caveats about the reliability of fielding metrics and the small sample size of 20 games that we need to take into account.
Hopefully Posada won’t need to miss too much time after being hit in the knee last night.
Would you be surprised if I told you that Cano has not been the most valuable Yankee this year?
| Player | Team | Lg | Role | G | GS | IP | TBF | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAR | WAR |
| Andy Pettitte | Yankees | AL | SP | 4 | 4 | 28.0 | 109 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 22 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 2.70 | 10.5 | 13.4 | 8.0 | 1.3 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | AL | SP | 5 | 5 | 34.7 | 135 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 28 | 3.38 | 3.12 | 3.46 | 4.9 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 0.8 |
| Phil Hughes | Yankees | AL | SP | 3 | 3 | 18.0 | 69 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 3.76 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| A.J. Burnett | Yankees | AL | SP | 4 | 4 | 25.3 | 107 | 28 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 3.55 | 3.20 | 3.75 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 0.6 |
| Mariano Rivera | Yankees | AL | RP | 8 | 0 | 7.0 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.34 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| Joba Chamberlain | Yankees | AL | RP | 10 | 0 | 9.7 | 41 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 3.72 | 3.72 | 3.41 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 0.1 |
| Sergio Mitre | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 4.3 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2.08 | 2.08 | 3.66 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Boone Logan | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 2.3 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 4.06 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Damaso Marte | Yankees | AL | RP | 8 | 0 | 4.3 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6.23 | 6.23 | 7.58 | -1.0 | -0.6 | -1.1 | -0.1 |
| Alfredo Aceves | Yankees | AL | RP | 5 | 0 | 7.7 | 36 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5.87 | 4.70 | 6.20 | -1.4 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.1 |
| Chan Ho Park | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 5.7 | 23 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6.35 | 4.76 | 6.73 | -1.3 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -0.1 |
| David Robertson | Yankees | AL | RP | 7 | 0 | 5.0 | 26 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10.80 | 10.80 | 3.80 | -3.6 | -3.2 | 0.8 | -0.3 |
| Javier Vazquez | Yankees | AL | SP | 4 | 4 | 20.0 | 93 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 6.45 | -9.7 | -7.6 | -2.7 | -0.8 |
TBF: Total batters faced
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above an average pitcher of the same role over the same # of innings, using RA.
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher (1.2 times average RA) of the same role over the same # of innings
FRSAR: RSAR if we use FIP instead of actual RA
WAR: Wins above replacement (RSAR divided by 10)
Battlecat just keeps on keeping on.
Here’s the whole team sorted by WAR.
| Rank | Player | WAR |
| 1 | Andy Pettitte | 1.3 |
| 2 | Robinson Cano | 0.9 |
| 3 | CC Sabathia | 0.8 |
| 4 | Jorge Posada | 0.8 |
| 5 | Phil Hughes | 0.7 |
| 6 | A.J. Burnett | 0.6 |
| 7 | Alex Rodriguez | 0.5 |
| 8 | Nick Swisher | 0.5 |
| 9 | Curtis Granderson | 0.5 |
| 10 | Mariano Rivera | 0.4 |
| 11 | Brett Gardner | 0.4 |
| 12 | Francisco Cervelli | 0.3 |
| 13 | Marcus Thames | 0.2 |
| 14 | Derek Jeter | 0.2 |
| 15 | Joba Chamberlain | 0.1 |
| 16 | Sergio Mitre | 0.1 |
| 17 | Boone Logan | 0.0 |
| 18 | Player | 0.0 |
| 19 | Ramiro Pena | 0.0 |
| 20 | Damaso Marte | -0.1 |
| 21 | Alfredo Aceves | -0.1 |
| 22 | Chan Ho Park | -0.1 |
| 23 | Nick Johnson | -0.1 |
| 24 | Mark Teixeira | -0.2 |
| 25 | Randy Winn | -0.3 |
| 26 | David Robertson | -0.3 |
| 27 | Javier Vazquez | -0.8 |
You know what’d be cool? If Mark Teixeira and Nick Johnson stopped hitting like Randy Winn.
Monday, April 19, 2010
What Should We Expect Out of The Upcoming West Coast Trip(Oakland Edition)?
With a strong 9-3 start that has them tied for first place in the loss column in the AL East and already six games ahead of the Red Sox in that same loss column, the Yankees head west for six games. The first three games are against Oakland, where the pitching matchups are:
Tuesday April 20
Javier Vazquez vs. Gio Gonzalez
Wednesday April 21
Phil Hughes vs. Ben Sheets
Thursday April 22
CC Sabathia vs. Dallas Braden
Oakland’s been a bit of a surprise this year as they are in first place in the AL West with a 9-5 record. They’ve scored 62 runs and allowed 47 runs, which translates to a Pythagenpat record of… 9-5.
As a team, Oakland’s offense isn’t particularly good whether you look at their projections or how they’ve done so far in 2010.
| Rank | team | lg | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | GDP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAA |
| 1 | Yankees | AL | 472 | 114 | 24 | 4 | 16 | 69 | 63 | 61 | 76 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 4 | .284 | .386 | .483 | .379 | 75.2 | 18.2 |
| 2 | Royals | AL | 467 | 133 | 22 | 1 | 15 | 63 | 58 | 31 | 64 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 1 | .309 | .358 | .470 | .359 | 70.3 | 13.8 |
| 3 | Twins | AL | 518 | 123 | 23 | 2 | 15 | 69 | 67 | 65 | 74 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 1 | .277 | .367 | .439 | .354 | 73.0 | 10.4 |
| 4 | Tigers | AL | 483 | 114 | 30 | 2 | 8 | 58 | 50 | 60 | 74 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 3 | .275 | .375 | .414 | .354 | 64.8 | 6.5 |
| 5 | Blue Jays | AL | 494 | 98 | 35 | 1 | 18 | 57 | 55 | 46 | 109 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 1 | .223 | .300 | .431 | .315 | 60.7 | 0.9 |
| 6 | Red Sox | AL | 462 | 106 | 31 | 1 | 14 | 48 | 46 | 37 | 86 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 3 | .255 | .318 | .435 | .326 | 57.7 | 1.8 |
| 7 | Rays | AL | 458 | 101 | 23 | 3 | 14 | 62 | 61 | 41 | 97 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 4 | .245 | .314 | .416 | .319 | 56.1 | 0.7 |
| 8 | Angels | AL | 489 | 117 | 26 | 0 | 14 | 52 | 51 | 37 | 91 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | .262 | .319 | .414 | .320 | 58.2 | -0.9 |
| 9 | Athletics | AL | 523 | 117 | 28 | 1 | 7 | 62 | 60 | 46 | 89 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 2 | .252 | .321 | .362 | .305 | 56.5 | -6.7 |
| 10 | White Sox | AL | 484 | 95 | 17 | 1 | 16 | 53 | 48 | 46 | 67 | 8 | 17 | 13 | 5 | .222 | .308 | .379 | .305 | 52.0 | -6.5 |
| 11 | Orioles | AL | 488 | 104 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 36 | 87 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 3 | .234 | .299 | .381 | .299 | 49.8 | -9.2 |
| 12 | Rangers | AL | 427 | 93 | 16 | 3 | 10 | 46 | 42 | 30 | 89 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 1 | .241 | .300 | .376 | .297 | 43.9 | -7.7 |
| 13 | Indians | AL | 444 | 85 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 45 | 42 | 47 | 89 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 3 | .219 | .313 | .343 | .297 | 43.8 | -9.9 |
| 14 | Mariners | AL | 473 | 102 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 45 | 42 | 47 | 93 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 6 | .245 | .321 | .333 | .297 | 45.7 | -11.5 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAA: BR above average (not position-adjusted)
As a team, they’ve collectively hit .252/.321/.362, although it should be noted that their home park suppresses offense a fair amount (by about 4% on average over the last four seasons). It’s also probably at least worth mentioning that their 62 runs scored is a little higher than their context-neutral batting runs which could indicate some good fortune offensively so far. For comparison’s sake, the Yankees have actually scored six fewer runs than they should have if you go by their context-neutral batting runs
You can see the difference more starkly if you line up their primary starting nine next to the Yankee lineup and compare their projections for 2010.
| Player | Pos | PA | Outs | BR | OBP | Player | Pos | PA | Outs | BR | OBP |
| Derek Jeter | SS | 5 | 3.1 | 0.69 | .372 | Rajai Davis | CF | 5 | 3.3 | 0.61 | .335 |
| Nick Johnson | DH | 5 | 3.0 | 0.72 | .405 | Daric Barton | 1B | 5 | 3.2 | 0.64 | .356 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | 5 | 3.1 | 0.84 | .381 | Ryan Sweeney | RF | 5 | 3.3 | 0.60 | .345 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 5 | 3.1 | 0.87 | .387 | Kevin Kouzmanoff | 3B | 5 | 3.4 | 0.62 | .312 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 5 | 3.3 | 0.70 | .338 | Kurt Suzuki | C | 4 | 2.9 | 0.51 | .333 |
| Jorge Posada | C | 5 | 3.2 | 0.70 | .355 | Eric Chavez | DH | 4 | 2.8 | 0.44 | .306 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | 5 | 3.0 | 0.66 | .341 | Mark Ellis | 2B | 4 | 2.7 | 0.45 | .316 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 4 | 2.6 | 0.56 | .360 | Travis Buck | LF | 4 | 2.7 | 0.48 | .332 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 4 | 2.6 | 0.47 | .341 | Cliff Pennington | SS | 4 | 2.7 | 0.41 | .327 |
| Total | 43 | 27.0 | 6.22 | .365 | Total | 40 | 27.0 | 4.77 | .330 |
PA: # of PA in a single game
Outs: Outs made at the plate, equals PA times (1 minus OBP)
BR: Linear weights batting runs for listed PA
OBP:projected OBP
These are based on an average of six projection systems (CAIRO, CHONE, Marcel, Oliver, PECOTA and ZiPS), so the built-in CAIRO bias towards the Yankees is slightly mitigated.
Of course, you don’t have to score 6.22 runs a game to be a good team in baseball if you can prevent runs well. That’s where Oakland’s biggest strength lies. So far this season, their pitching staff has been the most effective one in the American League.
| Rnk | team | lg | Role | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR |
| 1 | Athletics | AL | Total | 48 | 13 | 115.3 | 98 | 39 | 33 | 8 | 44 | 2 | 2 | 97 | 3.04 | 2.58 | 3.62 | 29.8 |
| 2 | Twins | AL | Total | 46 | 12 | 108.0 | 100 | 37 | 37 | 11 | 30 | 1 | 3 | 72 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 4.11 | 27.5 |
| 3 | White Sox | AL | Total | 45 | 12 | 110.0 | 96 | 48 | 44 | 6 | 51 | 6 | 3 | 98 | 3.93 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 17.6 |
| 4 | Mariners | AL | Total | 40 | 12 | 105.0 | 103 | 46 | 43 | 8 | 41 | 1 | 4 | 69 | 3.94 | 3.69 | 4.16 | 16.6 |
| 5 | Rays | AL | Total | 46 | 11 | 103.0 | 97 | 45 | 44 | 16 | 39 | 2 | 4 | 75 | 3.93 | 3.84 | 5.02 | 16.4 |
| 6 | Rangers | AL | Total | 42 | 11 | 95.0 | 87 | 41 | 34 | 11 | 40 | 1 | 8 | 77 | 3.88 | 3.22 | 4.60 | 15.7 |
| 7 | Yankees | AL | Total | 39 | 11 | 95.0 | 87 | 42 | 40 | 8 | 34 | 0 | 4 | 79 | 3.98 | 3.79 | 3.83 | 14.7 |
| 8 | Indians | AL | Total | 40 | 11 | 98.7 | 83 | 46 | 40 | 9 | 50 | 2 | 7 | 60 | 4.20 | 3.65 | 4.90 | 13.0 |
| 9 | Blue Jays | AL | Total | 43 | 12 | 109.3 | 94 | 55 | 53 | 15 | 37 | 2 | 7 | 87 | 4.53 | 4.36 | 4.60 | 10.3 |
| 10 | Red Sox | AL | Total | 45 | 11 | 100.0 | 100 | 54 | 45 | 13 | 42 | 2 | 3 | 64 | 4.86 | 4.05 | 4.96 | 5.5 |
| 11 | Orioles | AL | Total | 48 | 12 | 104.7 | 114 | 63 | 54 | 13 | 36 | 7 | 4 | 96 | 5.42 | 4.64 | 4.13 | -0.6 |
| 12 | Tigers | AL | Total | 43 | 11 | 98.0 | 112 | 59 | 50 | 10 | 39 | 1 | 4 | 61 | 5.42 | 4.59 | 4.60 | -0.8 |
| 13 | Angels | AL | Total | 45 | 12 | 106.0 | 106 | 68 | 61 | 20 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 81 | 5.77 | 5.18 | 5.45 | -4.8 |
| 14 | Royals | AL | Total | 50 | 11 | 98.0 | 112 | 66 | 62 | 14 | 48 | 1 | 7 | 69 | 6.06 | 5.69 | 5.33 | -7.6 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement. For starters this is calculated as 1.25 times league RA minus starter RA divided by nine times IP. For relievers it’s calculated as 1.15 times league RA minus reliever RA divided by nine times IP
If you go by RA, the A’s have been the best pitching staff in the AL so far, although they obviously get a boost from their park. The bulk of that value is actually in their rotation, at least so far.
| Rnk | team | lg | Role | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR |
| 1 | Athletics | AL | SP | 13 | 13 | 78.3 | 68 | 23 | 20 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 2 | 58 | 2.64 | 2.30 | 3.66 | 24.5 |
| 4 | Yankees | AL | SP | 11 | 11 | 66.0 | 57 | 27 | 26 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 3 | 56 | 3.68 | 3.55 | 3.61 | 13.1 |
| 4 | Athletics | AL | RP | 35 | 0 | 37.0 | 30 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 39 | 3.89 | 3.16 | 3.52 | 5.3 |
| 9 | Yankees | AL | RP | 28 | 0 | 29.0 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 4.66 | 4.34 | 4.34 | 1.7 |
They’ve been better than the Yankees in both starting and relieving to this point, although strength of offenses faced is likely a contributing factor.
Lastly, Oakland also looks to have a very strong defense, here’s how the primary lineups compare defensively at each position.
| Pos | Player | RS | RS/150 | Player | RS | RS/150 |
| C | Jorge Posada | -0.03 | -5 | Kurt Suzuki | 0.05 | 7 |
| 1B | Mark Teixeira | 0.02 | 3 | Daric Barton | 0.03 | 5 |
| 2B | Robinson Cano | 0.00 | -1 | Mark Ellis | 0.08 | 12 |
| 3B | Alex Rodriguez | -0.03 | -5 | Kevin Kouzmanoff | 0.02 | 3 |
| SS | Derek Jeter | -0.03 | -4 | Cliff Pennington | -0.05 | -7 |
| LF | Brett Gardner | 0.02 | 3 | Travis Buck | -0.01 | -2 |
| CF | Curtis Granderson | 0.04 | 5 | Rajai Davis | 0.06 | 9 |
| RF | Nick Swisher | 0.00 | 0 | Ryan Sweeney | 0.11 | 17 |
| Total | -0.01 | -2 | 0.30 | 45 |
RS: Projected runs saved compared to average defensively per game, using an average of projected zone rating and UZR
RS/150: RS pro-rated to 150 games
Yeah, yeah, so what does all this nerdy crap mean?
It means if we want to figure out the win probability for each game via Bill James’s log 5 methodology, we’d use these numbers to do it.
So in Game 1, we have the following inputs:
Yankees
Offense: 6.22 runs
Defense: -0.01 runs
Pitching: 3.9 runs (using six innings of Vazquez’s projected RA, then an inning each of Damaso Marte, David Robertson and Mariano Rivera)
Pythagenpat win Percentage: .714
Home field disadvantage: -0.02
Road Pythagenpat win percentage: 0..694
Athletics
Offense: 4.77 runs
Defense: 0.30 runs
Pitching: 4.9 runs (using six innings of Gio Gonzalez’s projected RA, then an inning each of Brad Ziegler, Jerry Blevins and Andrew Bailey)
Pythagenpat Win Percentage: .519
Home field advantage: 0.02
Home Pythagenpat win percentage: 0.539
Log 5 win probability = team A win percentage minus team B win percentage + .500. So for Game 1, with these lineups we’d set the Yankee win probability at 67.5%. Of course, Vazquez’s projections don’t include the fact that he can’t pitch in Yankee pinstripes, so the actual Yankee win probability is more like -100.0%.
Using the same lineups for Games 2 and 3 with the changed pitching matchups gives us these probabilities:
Game 2: 57.4%
Game 3: 64.2%
So theoretically, if not for the Vazquez effect, the Yankees should expect to go something like 1.9 - 1.1 against Oakland. Which they can’t do, because you can’t win partial games, so let’s round that up to 2-1.
Of course, one of the great modern philosphers made the astute observation that you can’t predict baseball, so I’m going to throw these numbers into the East River and predict an Oakland sweep to kick off a 15 game losing streak for the Yankees.
Monday, April 12, 2010
2010 Opening Week In Review
If you trust the results of the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout, the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays are probably the three best teams in baseball. So starting the season by playing six games on the road against two of the three best teams in baseball had the potential to be pretty painful. Fortunately for us, the Yankees were up to the task, taking two of three from both of their rivals, enabling them to stay close to the Toronto juggernaut in the AL East.
Here’s a look at how the team performed statistically.
| Player | Team | Lg | Pos | G | AB | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | GDP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAR |
| Jorge Posada | Yankees | AL | C | 5 | 17 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .353 | .500 | .824 | .534 | 6.0 | 4.4 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | AL | CF | 6 | 23 | 26 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .348 | .423 | .652 | .452 | 6.2 | 3.9 |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | AL | 2B | 6 | 25 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .360 | .370 | .680 | .428 | 5.2 | 2.9 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | AL | RF | 6 | 21 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .440 | .571 | .437 | 4.9 | 2.4 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 6 | 27 | 29 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .259 | .310 | .481 | .336 | 3.6 | 1.2 |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | AL | SS | 6 | 28 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .286 | .333 | .321 | .300 | 3.2 | 0.9 |
| Francisco Cervelli | Yankees | AL | C | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .400 | .667 | .392 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | AL | LF | 5 | 17 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .294 | .368 | .294 | .313 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| Marcus Thames | Yankees | AL | LF | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .400 | .250 | .324 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Ramiro Pena | Yankees | AL | 3B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Randy Winn | Yankees | AL | RF | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | -0.2 | -0.4 |
| Nick Johnson | Yankees | AL | DH | 6 | 22 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .136 | .367 | .182 | .294 | 2.5 | -0.9 |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | AL | 1B | 6 | 24 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .125 | .276 | .167 | .229 | 1.3 | -1.8 |
| Total | 62 | 213 | 249 | 58 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 2 | .272 | .369 | .451 | .360 | 36.7 | 13.9 |
BR: Batting runs using linear weights
BRAR: Position-adjusted BR above replacement level
At this point, Teixeira’s a sunk cost and the Yankees should probably just release him and eat his salary. How about that Posada kid though? And this Granderson fella can play a bit as well. On a slightly more serious note, the Yankees put up 36 runs in six games on the road against two of the better projected run prevention teams in the league, which bodes nicely for the offense going forward.
| Player | Team | Lg | Role | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | AL | SP | 2 | 2 | 13.0 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 3.46 | 3.46 | 2.74 | 2.9 |
| Andy Pettitte | Yankees | AL | SP | 1 | 1 | 6.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 3.87 | 2.7 |
| Mariano Rivera | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 3.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.87 | 1.7 |
| A.J. Burnett | Yankees | AL | SP | 2 | 2 | 12.0 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 4.50 | 3.75 | 4.53 | 1.3 |
| Alfredo Aceves | Yankees | AL | RP | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.20 | 1.1 |
| David Robertson | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.20 | 1.1 |
| Sergio Mitre | Yankees | AL | RP | 1 | 0 | 2.3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 2.34 | 0.3 |
| Damaso Marte | Yankees | AL | RP | 2 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.20 | 0.2 |
| Joba Chamberlain | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 3.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 3.20 | -0.3 |
| Chan Ho Park | Yankees | AL | RP | 2 | 0 | 3.7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7.36 | 4.91 | 5.65 | -0.9 |
| Javier Vazquez | Yankees | AL | SP | 1 | 1 | 5.7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12.71 | 12.71 | 7.61 | -4.5 |
| Total | 21 | 6 | 53 | 49 | 26 | 24 | 4 | 18 | 34 | 4.42 | 4.08 | 3.92 | 5.5 |
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level.
Yay Battlecat! And if you need further proof about how foolish it was to put Joba in the rotation, look at how dominant he’s been as a reliever so far. I don’t care about sample size, he’s clearly the Joba of old again. Vindication for the JSPTE crowd!
UZR is not yet available for 2010, but here’s how the team performed this past week according to zone rating.
| Player | Tm | Lg | Pos | G | GS | CH | INN | PO | A | E | DP | ZR | PM | Avg ZR | AvgPM | Diff | RS |
| Rodriguez, Alex | NYY | AL | 3B | 6 | 6 | 19 | 52 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 3 | .947 | 18 | .826 | 16 | 2 | 2 |
| Granderson, Curtis | NYY | AL | CF | 6 | 6 | 26 | 53 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .923 | 24 | .881 | 23 | 1 | 1 |
| Teixeira, Mark | NYY | AL | 1B | 6 | 6 | 13 | 53 | 57 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1.000 | 13 | .943 | 12 | 1 | 1 |
| Gardner, Brett | NYY | AL | LF | 5 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .889 | 8 | .858 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Pena, Ramiro | NYY | AL | 3B | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1 | .826 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Winn, Randy | NYY | AL | RF | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1 | .867 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Swisher, Nick | NYY | AL | RF | 6 | 6 | 6 | 47 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .833 | 5 | .867 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Thames, Marcus | NYY | AL | LF | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .667 | 2 | .858 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| Jeter, Derek | NYY | AL | SS | 6 | 6 | 14 | 53 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 3 | .643 | 9 | .849 | 12 | -3 | -2 |
| Cano, Robinson | NYY | AL | 2B | 6 | 6 | 24 | 53 | 11 | 20 | 0 | 5 | .708 | 17 | .831 | 20 | -3 | -2 |
G: Games
GS: Games Started
CH: Playable Chances
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double Plays
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
PM: Plays Made
Avg ZR: ZR by average defender at the same position and in the same league
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved
Standard caveats about limitations of fielding metrics and sample size apply as always. At this point just one missed play can have a huge impact on a player’s RS total, so don’t make too much of these numbers yet, although I’ve been very pleased with Rodriguez’s defense at third so far. His hip doesn’t seem to be an issue in terms of his lateral range to this point.
For the hell of it, here’s how zone rating has all 30 MLB teams ranked (does not include catchers).
| TM | POS | Ch | PM | Diff | RS |
| Det | Total | 106 | 98 | 7 | 6 |
| Cle | Total | 100 | 92 | 6 | 5 |
| Fla | Total | 104 | 91 | 4 | 3 |
| StL | Total | 103 | 88 | 3 | 3 |
| Mil | Total | 101 | 87 | 3 | 3 |
| Atl | Total | 111 | 95 | 3 | 2 |
| Was | Total | 107 | 92 | 3 | 2 |
| SD | Total | 105 | 89 | 2 | 1 |
| Cin | Total | 107 | 91 | 1 | 1 |
| Oak | Total | 113 | 98 | 1 | 1 |
| Sea | Total | 130 | 113 | 1 | 1 |
| NYM | Total | 117 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
| Tor | Total | 99 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| ChC | Total | 98 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| Bos | Total | 121 | 104 | 0 | 0 |
| KC | Total | 114 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
| Min | Total | 124 | 106 | 0 | 0 |
| LAA | Total | 132 | 113 | 0 | 0 |
| Col | Total | 105 | 85 | -1 | -1 |
| NYY | Total | 116 | 98 | -2 | -1 |
| LA | Total | 95 | 76 | -2 | -1 |
| Bal | Total | 96 | 81 | -2 | -2 |
| Phi | Total | 106 | 86 | -2 | -2 |
| Ari | Total | 110 | 89 | -2 | -2 |
| SF | Total | 114 | 92 | -2 | -2 |
| TB | Total | 115 | 96 | -3 | -3 |
| Hou | Total | 120 | 97 | -4 | -3 |
| CWS | Total | 107 | 88 | -4 | -3 |
| Tex | Total | 91 | 74 | -4 | -3 |
| Pit | Total | 118 | 91 | -7 | -5 |
Shouldn’t the Red Sox be around +10 by now? Peter Gammons told me they were going to be historically great defensively.
When we looked at the April expectations using log 5, we saw that the Yankees would have been estimated to go 1.4 - 1.6 versus Boston and 1.5 and 1.5 versus Tampa Bay(and yes, I know you can’t win .4 or .5 or .6 games). That means they’d have been expected to be 2.94 - 3.06 after six games. All that means is they’re a game ahead of where we’d have put them, so we’d have to consider opening week a success.
| date | game | xW | xL | cxW | cxL | aW | aL | caW | caL | W+/- |
| 4-Apr | @Boston Red Sox | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -0.48 |
| 6-Apr | @Boston Red Sox | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.97 | 1.03 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 |
| 7-Apr | @Boston Red Sox | 0.48 | 0.52 | 1.45 | 1.55 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.55 |
| 9-Apr | @Tampa Bay Rays | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.95 | 2.05 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 |
| 10-Apr | @Tampa Bay Rays | 0.50 | 0.50 | 2.44 | 2.56 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.56 |
| 11-Apr | @Tampa Bay Rays | 0.50 | 0.50 | 2.94 | 3.06 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.06 |
xW/L: Expected wins/losses using log 5
cxW/L: Cumulative expected wins/losses using log 5
aW/L: Actual wins/losses for games played
caW/L: Cumulative ctual wins/losses for games played
W+/-: caW - cxW. Negative means behind pace, positive means ahead of pace
So now it’s on to a six game home stand against the Orange County Angels and the Texas Rangers.
| date | game | xW | xL | cxW | cxL |
| 13-Apr | vs. Los Angeles Angels | 0.65 | 0.35 | 3.59 | 3.41 |
| 14-Apr | vs. Los Angeles Angels | 0.65 | 0.35 | 4.23 | 3.77 |
| 15-Apr | vs. Los Angeles Angels | 0.65 | 0.35 | 4.88 | 4.12 |
| 16-Apr | vs. Texas Rangers | 0.61 | 0.39 | 5.49 | 4.51 |
| 17-Apr | vs. Texas Rangers | 0.61 | 0.39 | 6.09 | 4.91 |
| 18-Apr | vs. Texas Rangers | 0.61 | 0.39 | 6.7 | 5.3 |
| total | 3.78 | 2.22 |
Log 5 would tell you that the Yankees should go 3.78 - 2.22 on this homestand, but they’ll get swept by the Angels, which is going to make that impossible. So I guess it’s good they’ve got a game in the bank.
Friday, April 2, 2010
Looking Ahead to 2010 - Pitching Staff
Unfortunately this is going to be very brief because I’ve been busy with other stuff, but I wanted to get something posted so here it is.
I usually like to look at a few different scenarios with the pitching staff, so here's one that I'd consider fairly optimistic.
| Player | Role | IP | caR | chR | mR | oR | pR | zR | aR |
| CC Sabathia | SP1 | 220 | 85 | 93 | 90 | 84 | 89 | 93 | 89 |
| Javier Vazquez | SP2 | 200 | 84 | 92 | 87 | 80 | 84 | 86 | 85 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP3 | 180 | 86 | 96 | 90 | 88 | 84 | 98 | 90 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 170 | 87 | 89 | 92 | 86 | 88 | 93 | 89 |
| Phil Hughes | SP5 | 160 | 77 | 85 | 85 | 79 | 79 | 92 | 83 |
| Sergio Mitre | SP6 | 90 | 57 | 53 | 58 | 47 | 50 | 56 | 54 |
| Zachary McAllister | SP7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kei Igawa | SP8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SP9 | |||||||||
| Starters Total | 1020 | 475 | 509 | 501 | 464 | 475 | 517 | 490 | |
| Player | Role | IP | caR | chR | mR | oR | pR | zR | aR |
| Mariano Rivera | CL | 70 | 20 | 26 | 25 | 23 | 26 | 27 | 24 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 50 | 25 | 24 | 28 | 26 | 22 | 30 | 26 |
| David Robertson | SU | 65 | 30 | 28 | 33 | 26 | 29 | 30 | 29 |
| Alfredo Aceves | MR | 65 | 35 | 33 | 29 | 26 | 31 | 37 | 32 |
| Joba Chamberlain | MR | 65 | 31 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 26 | 30 | 29 |
| Chan Ho Park | MR | 60 | 35 | 32 | 30 | 35 | 34 | 36 | 34 |
| Boone Logan | MR | 45 | 28 | 26 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 27 |
| LR | |||||||||
| Relievers Total | 420 | 204 | 199 | 199 | 193 | 195 | 218 | 201 | |
| Pitchers Total | 1440 | 679 | 708 | 700 | 657 | 670 | 736 | 692 |
caR: Projected runs allowed over projected IP using CAIRO
chR: Projected runs allowed over projected IP using CHONE
mR: Projected runs allowed over projected IP using Marcel
oR: Projected runs allowed over projected IP using Oliver
pR: Projected runs allowed over projected IP using PECOTA
zR: Projected runs allowed over projected IP using ZiPS
aR: Average of the above
I'm showing about as little data as I can, namely an innings pitched estimate and then how many runs allowed that corresponds with for each of the six projection systems I've been using. Here's I'm basically assuming good health out of everyone, but with some Sergio Mitre and Boone Logan. To put these numbers in a context that's a little more obvious, the average team ERA would be around 3.98, with Oliver the lowest at 3.78 and zIPS the highest at 4.23.
The average runs allowed total of 692 with the average runs scored of 880 from this post would give us the Yankees PythagenPat winning percentage of about .614, which is a 99 win team in a neutral league.
If we assume a bit fewer innings out of the top five starters and a little more out of Mitre and McAllister with a touch of Kei Igawa (where Kei Igawa is a proxy for some replacement level pitcher, not necessarily Igawa himself) it'd look like this.
| Player | Role | IP | caR | chR | mR | oR | pR | zR | aR |
| CC Sabathia | SP1 | 200 | 77 | 85 | 82 | 77 | 81 | 85 | 81 |
| Javier Vazquez | SP2 | 180 | 75 | 83 | 78 | 72 | 76 | 77 | 77 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP3 | 160 | 76 | 85 | 80 | 78 | 75 | 87 | 80 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 140 | 71 | 73 | 76 | 71 | 73 | 76 | 73 |
| Phil Hughes | SP5 | 120 | 57 | 64 | 64 | 59 | 59 | 69 | 62 |
| Sergio Mitre | SP6 | 120 | 76 | 71 | 77 | 63 | 67 | 74 | 71 |
| Zachary McAllister | SP7 | 60 | 39 | 42 | 31 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 |
| Kei Igawa | SP8 | 40 | 32 | 28 | 23 | 29 | 29 | 31 | 29 |
| SP9 | |||||||||
| Starters Total | 1020 | 505 | 531 | 511 | 485 | 497 | 537 | 511 | |
| Player | Role | IP | caR | chR | mR | oR | pR | zR | aR |
| Mariano Rivera | CL | 70 | 20 | 26 | 25 | 23 | 26 | 27 | 24 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 50 | 25 | 24 | 28 | 26 | 22 | 30 | 26 |
| David Robertson | SU | 65 | 30 | 28 | 33 | 26 | 29 | 30 | 29 |
| Alfredo Aceves | MR | 65 | 35 | 33 | 29 | 26 | 31 | 37 | 32 |
| Joba Chamberlain | MR | 65 | 31 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 26 | 30 | 29 |
| Chan Ho Park | MR | 60 | 35 | 32 | 30 | 35 | 34 | 36 | 34 |
| Boone Logan | MR | 45 | 28 | 26 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 27 |
| LR | |||||||||
| Relievers Total | 420 | 204 | 199 | 199 | 193 | 195 | 218 | 201 | |
| Pitchers Total | 1440 | 709 | 730 | 710 | 678 | 691 | 756 | 712 |
20 more runs allowed, which would be more like a 97 win team.
One more scenario, which is one I'd consider pretty pessimistic.
| Player | Role | IP | caR | chR | mR | oR | pR | zR | aR |
| CC Sabathia | SP1 | 180 | 70 | 76 | 74 | 69 | 73 | 76 | 73 |
| Javier Vazquez | SP2 | 160 | 67 | 74 | 70 | 64 | 68 | 69 | 68 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP3 | 120 | 57 | 64 | 60 | 59 | 56 | 65 | 60 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 110 | 56 | 58 | 60 | 56 | 57 | 60 | 58 |
| Phil Hughes | SP5 | 100 | 48 | 53 | 53 | 49 | 50 | 58 | 52 |
| Sergio Mitre | SP6 | 140 | 89 | 83 | 90 | 73 | 78 | 87 | 83 |
| Zachary McAllister | SP7 | 100 | 65 | 69 | 52 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 |
| Kei Igawa | SP8 | 120 | 96 | 84 | 70 | 86 | 86 | 93 | 86 |
| SP9 | |||||||||
| Starters Total | 1030 | 548 | 562 | 528 | 518 | 530 | 570 | 543 | |
| Player | Role | IP | caR | chR | mR | oR | pR | zR | aR |
| Mariano Rivera | CL | 40 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 30 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 15 |
| David Robertson | SU | 50 | 23 | 21 | 25 | 20 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Alfredo Aceves | MR | 50 | 27 | 25 | 23 | 20 | 24 | 29 | 24 |
| Joba Chamberlain | MR | 60 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 27 | 24 | 27 | 27 |
| Chan Ho Park | MR | 60 | 35 | 32 | 30 | 35 | 34 | 36 | 34 |
| Boone Logan | MR | 60 | 38 | 34 | 33 | 36 | 36 | 37 | 36 |
| Romulo Sanchez | LR | 60 | 41 | 28 | 30 | 35 | 35 | 41 | 35 |
| Relievers Total | 410 | 218 | 199 | 199 | 202 | 203 | 228 | 208 | |
| Pitchers Total | 1440 | 766 | 760 | 727 | 720 | 732 | 798 | 751 |
Even if this case, with an 880 run offense the Yankees would still project around 93 wins. Mark Melancon is around for some bullpen depth, and McAllister's projections are actually pretty solid if he's needed, but after them things get a little dicier. I'm still annoyed that the Yankees dumped Edwar Ramirez and Chad Gaudin but wanted Chan Ho Park, but that's really the only thing I have a quibble with.
Of course, more could go worse than even in this scenario and the offense may not score 880 runs, but I think on paper we should be pretty comfortable that the Yankees are pretty damn good. That's really all we can ask for, isn't it?
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