The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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NJ.com: Yankees’ CC Sabathia: I could still dominate
(60 Comments - 10/26/2014 1:40:11 am)

TGS: Hunter Strickland’s explosive October
(16 Comments - 10/23/2014 10:32:24 pm)

MLB Trade Rumors: Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees
(37 Comments - 10/23/2014 12:27:33 pm)

Newsday: Gary Denbo expected to replace Mark Newman in Yankees’ front office
(43 Comments - 10/22/2014 11:12:13 am)

NY Post: With Chili Davis off market, Yankees turn to Dave Magadan
(27 Comments - 10/21/2014 4:14:39 am)

TGS NY: Can McCann help lead the Bombers back?
(42 Comments - 10/19/2014 6:53:53 pm)

NYDN: Dave Magadan, Chili Davis are early frontrunners for Yankees hitting coach job
(34 Comments - 10/17/2014 9:05:10 am)

TGS NY: Eleven young Yankees on the rise in 2015
(76 Comments - 10/16/2014 10:13:29 am)

Newsday: Sources: Yankees considering Omar Minaya for high-ranking position in front office
(75 Comments - 10/15/2014 9:29:03 am)

NY Post: Yankees make to-do list: Third base, shortstop, rotation, closer
(63 Comments - 10/15/2014 1:12:44 am)



Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Sunday, March 30, 2014

CAIRO 2014 v1.0 and MLB Projected Standings

I’ve posted the final pre-season version of the 2014 CAIRO MLB projections and they are available at this link.

Yeah, I know that technically the season has already started.  You can ignore the Dodgers and Diamondbacks projections if you want.

Unfortunately because of time constraints I wasn’t able to run my full set of projected standings this year.  But you can check out the following places for projected standings.

Clay Davenport’s 2014 Projected Standings
Fangraphs’ 2014 Projected Standings using a combination of Steamer and ZiPS
Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projected 2014 standings

And here are CAIRO’s projected standings for 2014.

Date 3/30/2014
Iterations 100,000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/-
Red Sox 90 72 784 734 34.5% 12.5% 11.1% 58.1% 79-99
Rays 86 76 633 580 26.5% 12.2% 11.3% 49.9% 75-95
Yankees 84 78 735 706 15.3% 9.0% 10.0% 34.3% 73-93
Orioles 84 78 751 713 15.0% 8.9% 9.9% 33.7% 73-93
Blue Jays 81 81 798 784 8.7% 6.0% 7.8% 22.4% 71-91
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Tigers 90 72 722 650 75.5% 4.6% 3.8% 84.0% 80-100
Indians 81 81 696 678 17.7% 8.5% 8.3% 34.5% 70-90
Royals 79 83 675 731 4.8% 2.4% 3.7% 11.0% 68-88
Twins 73 89 674 749 1.5% 0.7% 1.2% 3.4% 62-82
White Sox 69 93 669 776 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.9% 59-79
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Rangers 87 75 769 677 57.6% 10.8% 7.5% 76.0% 77-97
Athletics 83 79 696 651 24.9% 12.8% 10.9% 48.5% 73-93
Mariners 82 80 658 660 11.9% 7.7% 8.6% 28.3% 71-91
Angels 78 84 662 681 5.5% 3.9% 5.4% 14.8% 68-88
Astros 68 94 674 848 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 58-78
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Nationals 91 71 696 595 76.8% 7.9% 4.9% 89.6% 81-101
Braves 85 77 640 616 17.7% 16.8% 13.5% 48.0% 74-94
Phillies 78 84 620 643 4.0% 4.8% 6.5% 15.3% 68-88
Mets 73 89 581 641 0.9% 1.0% 1.9% 3.8% 63-83
Marlins 73 89 582 658 0.6% 0.7% 1.4% 2.6% 63-83
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Cardinals 85 77 609 570 41.0% 6.5% 7.9% 55.4% 74-94
Pirates 85 77 576 553 32.7% 6.5% 8.2% 47.4% 74-94
Reds 82 80 657 651 19.5% 5.0% 7.1% 31.6% 71-91
Brewers 76 86 696 739 5.2% 1.5% 2.9% 9.6% 65-85
Cubs 72 90 626 693 1.6% 0.4% 1.0% 3.0% 61-81
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Dodgers 91 71 626 553 58.9% 14.3% 9.0% 82.2% 81-101
Giants 87 75 606 557 27.3% 19.0% 13.7% 60.0% 76-96
Padres 80 82 599 593 6.0% 6.5% 8.9% 21.3% 69-89
Diamondbacks 79 83 617 624 4.2% 5.0% 7.1% 16.3% 68-88
Rockies 78 84 806 831 3.6% 4.1% 6.1% 13.8% 67-87

W: Projected final 2014 wins
L: Projected final 2014 losses
RS: Projected final 2014 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2014 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation

This does account for the fact that Dodgers won the first two games against Arizona, which added about one win to their final projection and an extra loss to the Diamondbacks.

This lines up about where CAIRO has the Yankees pegged with my depth charts, around 84 wins and needing some good fortune to contend for the division, particularly since they’re in what looks l like the best division top to bottom in baseball this year.

--Posted at 4:48 pm by SG / 76 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, November 20, 2013

CAIRO 2014 v0.2’s Extremely Early and Completely Useless 2013 Projected MLB Standings

I figured I had a long offseason ahead of me if I was going to do everything in my power to make the Yankees look better than they are. The thing that needed to be done first was put the Yankees in the context of the rest of MLB.  So I’ve been working on building my CAIRO season simulation disk and gave it a trial run last night.  This was current through rosters as of yesterday morning.

As the title says, this is extremely early and completely useless so think of it more as a goof than anything too serious.  So using CAIRO v0.2 which I’ll probably post tomorrow and the depth charts from MLB Depth Charts and Rotochamp as a rough gauge of playing time, here’s how the 2014 MLB season looks as of November 20.

Date 11/20/2013
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 92 70 808 728 53.4% 10.7% 9.8% 73.9%
Rays 87 75 664 587 21.3% 11.6% 11.7% 44.5%
Blue Jays 86 76 816 761 14.9% 10.2% 11.7% 36.8%
Orioles 84 78 750 711 10.4% 6.3% 8.7% 25.4%
Yankees 71 91 674 801 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Tigers 91 71 773 661 71.1% 4.9% 4.5% 80.6%
Indians 85 77 725 670 21.6% 10.1% 10.0% 41.7%
Royals 79 83 703 758 6.1% 2.0% 4.1% 12.1%
Twins 74 88 707 774 1.2% 0.2% 0.8% 2.2%
White Sox 70 92 711 804 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 91 71 760 641 61.4% 12.9% 9.0% 83.3%
Athletics 86 76 710 641 24.6% 17.6% 16.4% 58.6%
Angels 84 78 664 643 13.8% 12.8% 12.4% 39.0%
Mariners 72 90 617 684 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 1.4%
Astros 54 108 660 970 0.0% - - -
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Nationals 90 72 697 608 52.9% 19.3% 10.1% 82.3%
Braves 90 72 645 589 45.1% 23.5% 10.5% 79.1%
Phillies 77 85 634 676 1.4% 1.6% 3.8% 6.9%
Marlins 73 89 574 641 0.5% 0.9% 1.7% 3.2%
Mets 68 94 589 682 0.1% - 0.1% 0.2%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Reds 87 75 676 620 34.6% 9.8% 9.3% 53.7%
Pirates 87 75 593 551 36.3% 8.7% 10.3% 55.2%
Cardinals 85 77 621 574 27.1% 9.0% 10.5% 46.5%
Brewers 75 87 706 763 1.3% 0.8% 1.5% 3.6%
Cubs 73 89 625 680 0.9% 0.3% 1.0% 2.1%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Dodgers 88 74 640 584 42.3% 7.0% 10.4% 59.6%
Giants 85 77 607 574 20.0% 6.5% 10.5% 37.1%
Diamondbacks 84 78 618 588 20.0% 6.3% 9.9% 36.2%
Rockies 81 81 852 861 9.9% 3.2% 6.4% 19.6%
Padres 80 82 602 596 7.8% 3.0% 4.1% 14.9%

W: Projected final 2014 wins
L: Projected final 2014 losses
RS: Projected final 2014 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2014 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation

Let me reiterate, these are extremely early and completely useless.  There are literally hundreds of free agents still out there to be signed, and trades to be made, and players to be injured.  There’s also the traditional error bars that projections have, which means you should probably look at this with a 10 game swing on either side of a team’s average projected win total, particularly right now with so much roster churn to come.

But if you are a Yankee fan, like I used to be, this is pretty disheartening.  It’s not surprising, and if you put the lineup and pitching staff together based on how they project in 2014 you will see they are about as far from championship caliber as any team in the American League.  Maybe moreso considering the relative strength of their division. 

No, the Astros are not an AL team, even if they use a DH.

Don’t worry though, the Yankees will sign Carlos Beltran and he’ll make them a 95 win team.

--Posted at 8:09 am by SG / 61 Comments | - (0)




Friday, September 13, 2013

NYDN: Streaking Red Sox stand in way of Yankees playoff hopes again

BALTIMORE — Less than a week ago, the Red Sox appeared to destroy any momentum the Yankees had been building in their pursuit of a wild card berth.
Now, as the Yankees stand only one game behind the Rays for one of two golden wild-card tickets to October, guess who’s standing in their way again this weekend?

It’s been eight years since the Yankees and Red Sox have gone toe-to-toe at Fenway Park after Labor Day with the American League East title on the line. First place won’t be on the line this weekend, but that doesn’t mean this series won’t pack plenty of punch.

And I’m not even talking about Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Dempster.

“They’re hot as a firecracker right now,” A-Rod said after the Yankees pulled out a roller-coaster 6-5 win over the Orioles Thursday night. “We just have to concern ourselves with what we have to do, keep building on the last three games.”

This weekend has a very good chance of clearing up some of the clutter for the second wild card in the AL.  The Indians are playing at the White Sox, the Orioles are at the Blue Jays, the Rays are at the Twins, the Royals are at the Tigers, the A’s are at Texas and of course, the Yankees are at a dilapidated, dirty, disgraceful joke of a ballpark.  Logic says the Indians, Orioles and Rays should win their series, and maybe even sweep them.  So the Yankees probably have to win two of three games in this series if they don’t want to lose too much ground. 

The Yankees do have Hiroki Kuroda, CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova going, but they’ll be facing arguably the three best Boston starters in John Lackey, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz.  The Yankee bullpen is running on fumes and Boston really makes pitching staffs work so it’s going to be rough.

A sweep by Boston would probably kill the Yankees’s chances, so let’s hope they can at least avoid that.

--Posted at 8:44 am by SG / 29 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, September 5, 2013

The AL East Postseason Implications of this Series with Boston

The Yankees have no chance of making the postseason, but this series could impact the Rays and Orioles, so here’s how the various potential outcomes of this series affect the various postseason odds for the teams in the AL East.

Now
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 96 66 826 678 97.5% 0.5% 0.5% 98.5%
Rays 89 73 706 650 2.0% 21.0% 43.3% 66.3%
Yankees 87 75 678 667 0.5% 4.5% 19.5% 24.5%
Orioles 85 77 762 729 0.0% - 3.2% 3.2%
Red Sox 4-0
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 98 64 826 678 99.5% 0.5% - 100.0%
Rays 90 72 706 650 0.5% 21.8% 48.7% 71.0%
Orioles 85 77 762 729 0.0% 0.3% 9.5% 9.8%
Yankees 85 77 678 667 0.0% 0.5% 3.8% 4.3%
Red Sox 3-1
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 97 65 826 678 98.0% 0.8% - 98.8%
Rays 90 72 706 650 2.0% 21.8% 45.9% 69.8%
Yankees 86 76 678 667 0.0% 2.3% 8.4% 10.8%
Orioles 85 77 762 729 0.0% 0.3% 5.3% 5.6%
Split
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 96 66 826 678 96.5% 2.0% - 98.5%
Rays 89 73 706 650 3.5% 11.8% 51.3% 66.7%
Yankees 87 75 678 667 0.0% 4.8% 16.8% 21.7%
Orioles 85 77 762 729 0.0% 1.0% 4.5% 5.5%
Yankees 3-1
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 95 67 826 678 90.8% 2.3% 2.0% 95.2%
Rays 89 73 706 650 7.8% 16.0% 32.0% 55.8%
Yankees 88 74 678 667 1.3% 4.0% 20.0% 25.3%
Orioles 85 77 762 729 0.0% - 6.5% 6.5%
Yankees 4-0
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 94 68 826 678 82.5% 6.3% 3.8% 92.7%
Rays 90 72 706 650 13.0% 12.9% 26.6% 52.5%
Yankees 89 73 678 667 4.5% 7.6% 34.5% 46.6%
Orioles 85 77 762 729 0.0% - 8.9% 8.9%

Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

A few notes.

1) 100.0% is more like 99.999999999%.  No team is actually 100.0% until they clinch but I don’t want really wide columns.
2) I removed team strength variability from these simulations to focus on the delta.  In actuality we should expect lower percentages near the top and higher percentages near the bottom.  Despite that there may be some fluctuations around the team win totals due to rounding.
3) I’m estimating the Yankees as presently constituted as around an 89 win team.  In actuality they are more like a 40 win team so just replace every number that’s not a 0 with a 0.

Anyway, this isn’t worth all that much because over a 20-25 game stretch anything can happen.

Anything except the Yankees qualifying for the postseason.

--Posted at 10:33 am by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)




Monday, August 26, 2013

NY Times: Yankees Find a Way to Avoid a Sweep

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — At age 37 with cranky knees, Alfonso Soriano is not nearly as swift as he once was. In an earlier life with the Yankees in his middle 20s, Soriano was able to rely on sheer speed and agility as he twice recorded seasons with 40 stolen bases.

Now, stolen bases come more from his mind and the knowledge he has accrued in 15 years in the major leagues, and few were as critical as the one he swiped in the 11th inning Sunday that led directly to a vital 3-2 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays.

Summoning every bit of information about the craft of base stealing that he had gleaned from his previous 365 attempts — and with his manager’s blessing — Soriano set out on an 85-foot sprint that changed the course of the game, and perhaps the Yankees’ playoff hopes.

The Yankees really needed to win two of the three games in Tampa Bay over this weekend, but alas they couldn’t do it.  Saturday’s game was the killer, as CC Sabathia looked like vintage CC for just about the whole game except for a four batter stretch that cost the Yankees their 2-0 lead and the game.  CC was pretty much sitting 94-95 all game, something he hasn’t done all year.  Unfortunately, even if he pitches well going forward it’s probably too little and too late.

The big problem the Yankees face now is that they need a lot of help from a lot of crappy teams.  They’re fighting against Cleveland and Oakland teams that have easier schedules going forward, even if the Yankees were able to take care of their own business against Baltimore, Boston and Tampa Bay.  Here are my estimated projected strengths of schedule for each team over the rest of the season, accounting for home field advantage.

Team Opponent W%
Indians .486
Athletics .490
Rangers .492
Yankees .500
Rays .509
Red Sox .512
Orioles .522

And here’s how many wins every team ahead of the Yankees project to end the season with.

TM W
Tigers 98
Red Sox 94
Rangers 93
Rays 93
Athletics 90
Indians 88
Orioles 86
Yankees 85

Let’s put that in the perspective of the expected W-L records over the rest of the season.

Team W L
Yankees 16 16
Rays 19 15
Rangers 18 14
Athletics 18 15
Red Sox 17 13
Indians 17 15
Orioles 16 17

Let’s forget about Boston, Tampa Bay and Texas for now.  I can’t see the Yankees making up the seven or eight games in projected record over the rest of the season to catch any of them.  Yeah, they play Boston seven more times, all at home, but even if they win five of those seven games they still have to make up another five games.  They play the Rays just three more times, so even if they sweep that series they would have to make up another four games.

The Yankees play the Orioles seven more times (three at home, four on the road so they can pass them by beating them.

Which means it’s basically down to winning the games they can win and then watching what Oakland and Cleveland do in these remaining games.

Game #
Angels@Athletics 3
Astros@Athletics 4
Athletics@Angels 3
Athletics@Mariners 3
Athletics@Rangers 3
Athletics@Tigers 4
Athletics@Twins 3
Rangers@Athletics 3
Rays@Athletics 3
Twins@Athletics 4
Game #
Astros@Indians 4
Indians@Braves 3
Indians@Royals 3
Indians@Tigers 3
Indians@Twins 4
Indians@White Sox 4
Mets@Indians 3
Orioles@Indians 3
Royals@Indians 3
White Sox@Indians 2

I’d feel better about the Yankees’ chances if Oakland didn’t have so many games left against the Angels, Astros, Mariners and Twins and Cleveland didn’t have so many games left against the Astros, Twins, White Sox and Mets.

I fear the Yankees have run out of time.  They are probably one of the six best teams in the AL right now, but they haven’t been for too much of the season to make up for it.

--Posted at 8:03 am by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, August 15, 2013

Best 43 Games Stretches by Every 2013 MLB Team

Tm StartDate EndDate W-L WPCT season WPCT% RS RA
LAD 6/22 8/9 35-8 .814 .583 209 130
PIT 5/14 6/30 30-13 .698 .597 166 131
STL 4/9 5/27 30-13 .698 .571 198 133
TBR 6/16 8/4 30-13 .698 .568 175 124
ATL 6/26 8/14 29-14 .674 .612 221 146
CIN 4/15 5/31 29-14 .674 .567 197 136
DET 6/20 8/8 29-14 .674 .588 236 161
NYY 4/7 5/25 29-14 .674 .521 191 146
OAK 5/15 7/2 29-14 .674 .563 199 147
TEX 4/2 5/19 29-14 .674 .579 210 150
CLE 6/14 8/1 28-15 .651 .537 211 163
TOR 5/5 6/23 28-15 .651 .458 242 181
BOS 4/13 5/27 27-16 .628 .590 215 184
KCR 6/26 8/13 27-16 .628 .525 186 162
CHC 4/5 5/23 16-27 .372 .433 173 180
CHW 6/5 7/25 16-27 .372 .387 184 209
COL 6/13 7/31 16-27 .372 .467 152 202
HOU 4/17 6/2 16-27 .372 .328 171 241
LAA 4/3 5/19 16-27 .372 .445 186 226
MIL 4/19 6/4 16-27 .372 .433 174 209
NYM 4/19 6/8 16-27 .372 .458 143 196
SDP 6/18 8/6 16-27 .372 .450 152 193
SFG 5/16 7/2 16-27 .372 .437 151 189
MIA 5/6 6/23 15-28 .349 .387 137 188

I figured this would give some perspective on just how hard it’s going to be for the Yankees to win 30+ of their 43 remaining games. 

 

--Posted at 8:48 am by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Stick a Fork in the 2013 Yankees

Losing four of five games to the Padres and White Sox has effectively eliminated the Yankees from any realistic postseason consideration at this point.  The last thing this team could afford was to lose games against the handful of teams they are better than, but that’s exactly what they’ve accomplished.

Date 8/7/2013
Iterations 1000000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/-
Red Sox 95 67 821 711 59.2% 24.2% 9.5% 92.8% 87-103
Rays 93 69 727 642 37.1% 31.7% 15.3% 84.2% 85-102
Orioles 86 76 754 739 3.3% 6.2% 13.3% 22.9% 78-94
Yankees 81 81 662 672 0.4% 0.8% 2.6% 3.9% 73-89
Blue Jays 77 85 761 764 0.0% - 0.3% 0.4% 69-85
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Tigers 98 64 817 647 92.0% 2.6% 2.5% 97.2% 90-106
Indians 88 74 752 710 6.4% 12.6% 22.2% 41.1% 80-96
Royals 83 79 671 653 1.6% 2.0% 6.1% 9.7% 75-91
Twins 71 91 662 765 0.0% - - - 63-79
White Sox 64 98 630 725 0.0% - - -56-72
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Athletics 92 70 715 643 55.5% 9.2% 12.0% 76.7% 84-100
Rangers 91 71 727 672 44.3% 10.6% 15.9% 70.8% 83-99
Angels 76 86 744 728 0.2% - 0.2% 0.4% 68-85
Mariners 73 89 657 735 0.0% - - 0.1% 65-81
Astros 54 108 629 861 0.0% - - -46-63
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Braves 99 63 713 581 99.9% - - 99.9% 91-107
Nationals 79 83 626 632 0.1% 0.2% 2.8% 3.1% 71-87
Mets 74 88 653 708 0.0% - 0.3% 0.3% 66-82
Phillies 73 89 631 723 0.0% - 0.2% 0.2% 65-81
Marlins 63 99 553 673 0.0% - - -55-72
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Cardinals 97 65 767 605 59.0% 29.8% 10.8% 99.6% 89-105
Pirates 94 68 641 592 32.8% 44.5% 21.1% 98.3% 86-102
Reds 90 72 710 620 8.2% 24.7% 55.0% 87.9% 82-98
Cubs 72 90 643 690 0.0% - 0.1% 0.1% 64-80
Brewers 68 94 651 727 0.0% - - -60-76
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Dodgers 89 73 648 616 79.1% 0.3% 2.7% 82.0% 81-97
Diamondbacks 83 79 685 669 19.1% 0.5% 6.4% 26.0% 75-91
Rockies 75 87 720 769 0.6% - 0.2% 0.8% 66-83
Padres 74 88 643 705 0.6% - 0.2% 0.9% 66-82
Giants 74 88 631 672 0.6% - 0.2% 0.8% 66-82

W: Projected final 2013 wins
L: Projected final 2013 losses
RS: Projected final 2013 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2013 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation

At this point, .500 looks like where they’re heading and frankly I wouldn’t be surprised to see them worse than that by the end of the year.  I’m sure they’ll continue to delude themselves into thinking they are contenders and will make more stupid and desperate moves depending on what shows up on the waiver wire, but it doesn’t matter.  They are done.

--Posted at 3:03 am by SG / 23 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, July 31, 2013

This Team is Buying?  Really?

My Monte Carlo postseason odds updated as of this morning.

Date 7/31/2013
Iterations 1,000,000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/-
Rays 94 68 741 641 47.4% 29.0% 10.9% 87.2% 86-102
Red Sox 94 68 813 714 44.7% 28.6% 11.7% 85.0% 85-102
Orioles 86 76 754 734 6.0% 12.2% 17.4% 35.6% 78-94
Yankees 82 80 677 676 1.0% 2.5% 5.5% 9.0% 74-90
Blue Jays 76 86 764 763 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.8% 68-84
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Tigers 94 68 819 667 78.2% 4.0% 7.1% 89.3% 86-102
Indians 88 74 763 714 17.7% 12.4% 20.2% 50.2% 80-96
Royals 81 81 666 663 3.2% 1.1% 4.5% 8.8% 73-89
Twins 70 92 667 767 0.1% - 0.1% 0.2% 62-78
White Sox 64 98 641 735 0.0% - - - 56-72
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Athletics 94 68 727 643 80.9% 2.4% 5.5% 88.8% 85-102
Rangers 87 75 725 689 17.5% 6.8% 15.0% 39.4% 79-95
Angels 76 86 744 726 0.5% - 0.6% 1.1% 68-84
Mariners 74 88 652 726 0.2% - 0.2% 0.4% 66-82
Astros 54 108 622 865 0.0% - - - 46-62
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Braves 94 68 702 594 97.0% 0.3% 0.6% 97.9% 86-102
Nationals 80 82 635 630 2.0% 0.5% 6.1% 8.6% 72-88
Phillies 75 87 635 714 0.2% - 0.8% 1.0% 67-83
Mets 75 87 663 714 0.0% - 1.2% 1.2% 67-83
Marlins 62 100 554 688 0.0% - - - 54-70
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Cardinals 94 68 742 611 48.5% 30.7% 16.5% 95.7% 86-102
Pirates 93 69 645 591 37.4% 38.1% 19.1% 94.6% 85-101
Reds 89 73 714 608 13.3% 28.5% 46.2% 88.0% 81-98
Cubs 73 89 647 690 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% 1.0% 65-81
Brewers 69 93 663 731 0.0% - 0.1% 0.1% 61-77
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Dodgers 86 76 657 627 72.2% 0.3% 2.5% 75.0% 78-94
Diamondbacks 82 80 689 672 21.5% 0.7% 3.8% 26.0% 73-90
Rockies 76 86 737 766 3.0% - 0.9% 3.9% 68-84
Padres 74 88 647 709 1.8% - 0.4% 2.1% 66-82
Giants 72 90 636 684 0.7% - - 0.7% 64-80

W: Projected final 2013 wins
L: Projected final 2013 losses
RS: Projected final 2013 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2013 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation

The phrase “lipstick on a pig” comes to mind.

Right now 90 wins looks like the Yankees’ upper-bound for wins within one standard deviation.  The average wins in my simulations for the first wild card in the AL was around 92.6, and the average for the second was about 90.

The Yankees’ postseason odds are now roughly equivalent to those of the Royals.

Keep buying middling outfielders signed for another year after this one though.

--Posted at 9:31 am by SG / 75 Comments | - (0)




Monday, July 22, 2013

2013 MLB Postseason Odds Through Games of July 21

Date 7/22/2013
Iterations 1,000,000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 94 68 825 730 51.6% 23.9% 10.6% 86.1%
Rays 92 70 743 651 34.7% 29.4% 16.5% 80.7%
Orioles 88 74 763 740 11.0% 16.1% 20.9% 47.9%
Yankees 83 79 694 684 2.3% 4.4% 8.9% 15.5%
Blue Jays 77 85 758 748 0.0% 0.8% 1.1% 1.9%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Tigers 91 71 806 682 75.1% 2.2% 4.9% 82.2%
Indians 86 76 758 730 21.6% 4.7% 8.8% 35.2%
Royals 78 84 668 679 2.7% 0.5% 1.7% 4.8%
Twins 70 92 672 778 0.1% - 0.2% 0.3%
White Sox 69 93 658 734 0.1% - 0.1% 0.2%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Athletics 93 69 725 641 74.0% 5.2% 6.6% 85.8%
Rangers 88 74 733 690 23.7% 11.2% 16.6% 51.5%
Angels 80 82 747 709 1.7% 1.2% 2.5% 5.4%
Mariners 74 88 660 727 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7%
Astros 55 107 625 868 0.0% - - -
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Braves 93 69 694 600 90.0% 0.6% 2.7% 93.2%
Nationals 81 81 635 622 5.9% 1.6% 8.3% 15.8%
Phillies 78 84 647 698 3.2% 0.5% 3.2% 6.8%
Mets 75 87 666 715 0.6% 0.4% 1.0% 1.9%
Marlins 61 101 559 701 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Cardinals 98 64 757 614 68.0% 21.5% 9.7% 99.1%
Reds 91 71 718 622 15.3% 38.6% 31.4% 85.4%
Pirates 91 71 638 603 16.2% 34.8% 32.7% 83.7%
Cubs 73 89 659 695 0.1% - 1.3% 1.4%
Brewers 69 93 660 728 0.0% - 0.2% 0.2%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Diamondbacks 84 78 688 672 41.5% 1.0% 3.0% 45.6%
Dodgers 83 79 647 631 37.9% 0.5% 3.5% 41.8%
Rockies 78 84 742 765 12.6% 0.2% 1.6% 14.3%
Giants 77 85 652 670 6.9% - 0.9% 7.8%
Padres 71 91 642 714 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 1.0%

W: Projected final 2013 wins
L: Projected final 2013 losses
RS: Projected final 2013 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2013 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

At least the Yankees have a good chance of not finishing last.

Should they sell?  Probably.  Will they sell?  Probably not.

--Posted at 9:27 am by SG / 59 Comments | - (0)




Friday, July 19, 2013

Boston Globe: Finally, Yankees arrive at Fenway Park

The Red Sox and Yankees, who last met on June 2 in the Bronx, are teams going in opposite directions. The Sox have the most wins in baseball at 58-39 and are in first place in the American League East. The Yankees are in fourth place at 51-44, six games back. They’re closer to last than first, sitting 5½ games ahead of the Blue Jays.

The Yankees have never finished fourth or lower since baseball switched from a two-division format to a three-division format with the advent of the wild card in 1994. The last time the Yankees finished fourth, George Herbert Walker Bush was in the White House — 1992. That capped a six-season span starting in 1987 in which the Yankees finished fourth or lower every year in the then-seven-team AL East.

The Yankees are one of the few teams that do not put names on the backs of their road uniforms. That’s too bad because their current lineup is unrecognizable. The Yankees are in life-preserver mode, treading water and floating aimlessly until their stars come back.

The Bronx Bombers have been more shooting blanks. They’re only 20th in baseball in runs scored and 20th in home runs.

This article would annoy me if it wasn’t mostly accurate.

The Yankees have 67 games left on the season, and 9 of them are in Fenway.  That means 13% of their second half schedule is going to be spent playing in a dingy, dilapidated and disgraceful bandbox.  The good news is that means the Yankees can control their own destiny if Boston remains the team to beat in the AL East.  The bad news is that the Yankees stink, and playing the better team in their ballpark in 13% of your remaining games is likely not going to lead to a good outcome.

I’ve tried to write the blog post about how good the Yankees could be going forward when they get some key players back a few times now but every time I start it I read about Derek Jeter going back on the DL or Curtis Granderson not yet cleared to take swings off a half mound or whatever else and I realize this team probably isn’t going to ever become all that good.  They aren’t likely to trade for any significant upgrades because they don’t have all that much worth trading for.

Can a .500 team go the 39-28 they would need to do to get to the 90 wins that will keep them in the race for at least a wild card by the end of the season?  This post All Star Break seven game road trip against Boston and Texas will probably tell us if that’s feasible or a pipe dream. 

I’m assuming the Yankees right now are maybe an 82 win team through the end of August.  In that case, here’s what log5 sees for them.

Date Road Team Home Team rW% hW% xW xL
7/19/2013 7:10 PM Yankees Red Sox .509 .552 .437 .563
7/20/2013 4:05 PM Yankees Red Sox .509 .552 .437 .563
7/21/2013 8:05 PM Yankees Red Sox .509 .552 .437 .563
7/22/2013 8:05 PM Yankees Rangers .509 .535 .454 .546
7/23/2013 8:05 PM Yankees Rangers .509 .535 .454 .546
7/24/2013 8:05 PM Yankees Rangers .509 .535 .454 .546
7/25/2013 2:05 PM Yankees Rangers .509 .535 .454 .546
7/26/2013 7:05 PM Rays Yankees .557 .509 .471 .529
7/27/2013 1:05 PM Rays Yankees .557 .509 .471 .529
7/28/2013 1:05 PM Rays Yankees .557 .509 .471 .529
7/30/2013 10:10 PM Yankees Dodgers .509 .510 .479 .521
7/31/2013 10:10 PM Yankees Dodgers .509 .510 .479 .521
5.5 6.5

rW%: Road team projected winning percentage
hW%: Home team projected winning percentage
xW/L: Expected wins/losses using log 5

So I think .500 is the benchmark for the rest of this month.  If they can go 6-6 I’d consider the rest of July reasonably successful.  But if I were a betting man I think 4-8 is more likely.

--Posted at 10:51 am by SG / 4 Comments | - (0)




Monday, July 1, 2013

TGS NY: Yankees headed toward last place

BALTIMORE—For years, Camden Yards transformed into a madhouse when the New York Yankees played the Baltimore Orioles. The Yanks and their fans would storm this city and beat up the Birds, making it feel like Bronx South.

This weekend, you again have barely been able to hear yourself at times—but it is because of the fans in black and orange and the cracks off Chris Davis’ bat.

The roles are totally reversed right now.

The Orioles are the beasts, fighting the Boston Red Sox for first place in the American League East, and everyone knows now that it is no fluke. Since the end of July of last season, the Orioles have been the best regular-season team in baseball.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are sinking towards the cellar, losers of four in a row and 20 of their past 32. They are just two games ahead of the last-place Toronto Blue Jays. There is a different feeling when you wander over from the road side to the home-side clubhouse.

If you go by Pythagenpat winning percentage, here are the AL East standings this morning.

Team pW pL
Boston 50.1 33.9
Baltimore 44.3 38.7
Tampa Bay 42.9 39.1
Toronto 40.5 40.5
NY Yankees 38.7 42.3

It seems like more of a question of when the Yankees will be in last place than if.  And while they are possibly going to get some help from the return of some injured players, it’s not likely to make them into a juggernaut.

The Yankees have one above average starting pitcher as measured by ERA+.  They have two position players that have been better than average relative to their position.

They can contend for the postseason because the bar for that is probably around 87-88 wins.  But even if they somehow got there, can you really see this team advancing past a round of playoff games?

I realize there are pipe dreams of a massive sell-off where they rebuild by trading away people like Robinson Cano and Phil Hughes, but I don’t see that happening.  You aren’t going to get a ton for Cano as he heads towards free agency, and Hughes is a wild card who is just as likely to hurt the team that acquires him as he is to help them.  Joba Chamberlain probably has negative trade value.

The scary thing is, things are more likely to get worse than better.

--Posted at 10:03 am by SG / 12 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, March 27, 2013

The 2013 MLB Projection Blowout

With Opening Day rapidly approaching, it’s time for my 2013 MLB projected standings blowout.  The idea behind this series of posts is to try and project how the 2013 MLB season might look given what we think we may know right now.  I’ve been doing a version of this since 2005, and you can see the results by looking at the following links.

2005
2006
2007
2008 Pt 1
2008 Pt 2
2009 AL
2009 NL
2010 AL
2010 NL
2011 AL
2011 NL
2012

A quick look at the previous seasons shows that the results are hit and miss.  Projections don’t pretend to be omnisicent, so they can only tell us so much about how things play out.  Hence the following disclaimers.

1) Projection systems are inherently limited in their accuracy, particularly for pitchers. We can get a rough idea of how most players will perform by looking at their past histories and how similar players have performed, and factoring in aging and regression, but abilities/talent can change in ways that can’t be forecasted.

2) Playing time distribution in these simulations will not match actual 2013 playing time. I used the rosters and depth charts available at MLB Depth Charts plus whatever I’ve read over the offseason as my guide to set these up as realistically as possible, but it’s a possible source of error. Rosters were set up to have 35-40 or so active players per team, and to get a reasonable amount of playing time from the bench and extra pitchers, to more closely model reality. Basically, no players are set to play more than 90% of the time, starting catchers are restricted to at most about 75% of the games, and I’ve made sure teams get a non-trivial amount of starts from their 6-8 starters. The healthier a team is in 2013, the more likely they will be to exceed these projections, and vice versa.

3) We cannot predict injuries and/or roster changes. These simulations do try to adjust projected playing time based on past health issues, so someone like Erik Bedard is not expected to make 30 starts. I’ve also included random injuries which may lead to some of the outlying results you see, but there’s no way to account for all the fluctuations that will happen with rosters this season.

4) These are NOT my predictions. These are projections based on running a computer simulation hundreds of thousands of times with projection data that is inherently limited. If your favorite team doesn’t project well, don’t blame me, blame the computers and spreadsheets that projected them. I guess you can blame me for the CAIRO results if you want, otherwise you can take heart in the 2006 Tigers projecting to win 80, the 2010 Giants projecting to go 81-81 or the 2012 Orioles projecting to win 70 games.  These are not meant to tell you how the season is going to play out.  I prefer to think of them more as a starting point for discussion, with a range of something like 10 wins in either direction based on how things actually end up playing out.  You can look at them and argue about why you think some teams will be better or worse.

5) Since this is all automated, I don’t break ties. I simply award all ties a share of either the division title or wild cards when it happens which is why you may see some funny decimal places in the standings that follow.

6) These are the averages of hundreds of thousands of simulated seasons, so the results will tend to regress towards the mean. The final standings will not look like this, because they only play the season once.  If the first place team in a division projects to win 85 games, it doesn’t mean 85 wins will win the division, but I’ll get into that into more detail further down in this post.

7) Even if you knew exactly what every player would do, and exactly how much they’d play, you would not get the standings right.  A few one run games or a disparate performance in more crucial situations can cause any team to over/under achieve what their stats say they should have done.  So if that’s true, you have to figure that since we have no idea what any individual player do or how much they’ll play, the margin of error on these is massive.

There’s too much stuff to fit it all into one post, so I’ve created a separate post for each projection system.  I will use this post to show the results of the aggregate/average of all the projections. You can follow the links below to look at the individual projection systems’ results.

This year, I’m using five different projection systems.  You can click on each of the links below to get some more information about each system and to see how their specific projected standings look.

CAIRO
Marcel
Oliver
Steamer
ZiPS

I should note that the Marcel projections used here were generated using Python code provided by Jeff Sackmann and are not the “official” projections, although they should be almost identical.  I’ll also mention that ZiPS will have its own projected standings so these should not be considered the official version.  Playing time distribution, run environments and park factors may cause some divergence between what ZiPS forecasts and what mine say.  When in doubt, go with the official version.

With all the disclaimers out of the way, on to the projected standings.  These are the combined results for all five projection systems.  The standings are rounded to the nearest win so if the total W-L doesn’t add up to 2430-2430 that’s why.

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/-
Blue Jays 89 73 795 728 29.1% 9.9% 9.6% 48.5% 77-100
Rays 88 74 715 644 27.6% 9.5% 8.8% 45.9% 77-100
Yankees 85 77 774 745 18.6% 7.9% 8.2% 34.7% 73-96
Red Sox 82 80 819 803 15.4% 6.6% 8.2% 30.2% 70-93
Orioles 79 83 738 766 9.3% 4.5% 5.8% 19.6% 68-90
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Tigers 89 73 797 714 46.4% 6.6% 6.8% 59.8% 77-100
Royals 81 81 716 721 19.3% 5.6% 6.5% 31.4% 70-92
Indians 80 82 741 744 18.7% 5.0% 6.2% 29.9% 69-91
White Sox 76 86 718 767 12.4% 4.0% 4.8% 21.2% 65-88
Twins 67 95 693 825 3.2% 0.9% 1.6% 5.6% 56-78
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Angels 91 71 763 656 40.0% 12.3% 9.3% 61.7% 80-103
Rangers 88 74 795 727 30.1% 12.0% 10.0% 52.1% 77-100
Athletics 87 75 731 679 24.6% 12.1% 10.0% 46.6% 75-98
Mariners 73 89 660 722 4.7% 2.9% 3.8% 11.4% 61-84
Astros 60 102 649 866 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 1.6% 49-72
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Nationals 90 72 690 598 44.5% 11.3% 8.3% 64.0% 79-102
Braves 88 74 673 622 32.3% 11.5% 9.7% 53.5% 77-99
Phillies 80 82 665 680 15.1% 7.2% 7.9% 30.1% 69-92
Mets 73 89 645 703 5.3% 3.1% 4.2% 12.6% 61-84
Marlins 69 93 624 731 2.8% 1.9% 2.5% 7.3% 57-80
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Reds 89 73 741 662 41.0% 8.9% 7.9% 57.8% 78-101
Cardinals 85 77 686 655 26.8% 8.8% 7.8% 43.4% 73-96
Brewers 79 83 704 733 13.4% 5.5% 6.5% 25.3% 67-90
Pirates 78 84 665 691 11.6% 4.3% 5.6% 21.5% 66-89
Cubs 74 88 652 705 7.2% 3.3% 4.1% 14.6% 63-85
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Dodgers 87 75 677 618 30.9% 9.4% 8.9% 49.2% 76-99
Giants 87 75 665 613 28.3% 9.1% 9.0% 46.4% 76-98
Diamondbacks 84 78 716 696 22.7% 8.1% 8.0% 38.8% 73-95
Padres 78 84 643 668 11.0% 4.4% 5.4% 20.8% 66-89
Rockies 74 88 775 847 7.2% 3.2% 4.2% 14.6% 63-85

W: Projected final 2013 wins
L: Projected final 2013 losses
RS: Projected final 2013 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2013 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation

As noted earlier, this is NOT saying that you can win the NL West by winning 87 games.  It’s saying that the team that finished in first most frequently in that division averaged 87 wins over hundreds of thousands of seasons.  Here are the average win totals for each spot in each division.

Place ALE ALC ALW NLE NLC NLW
1 94 91 95 94 92 92
2 89 84 89 87 85 87
3 85 79 83 80 81 83
4 81 74 73 73 76 78
5 75 66 60 66 70 71
WC1 91 90
WC2 87 86

Here is how each division broke down in terms of percentages using the aforementioned pie charts.

In the AL East, we’ve got the mostly tightly bunched group of teams in baseball, with just 10 wins separating Toronto at the top and Baltimore at the bottom.  Toronto and Tampa Bay look like they’re neck and neck as of right now.  The Yankees are already ravaged by injuries and at this point it doesn’t seem like it would take a lot for them to end up having a losing season and even finish last.  Should they lose Robinson Cano or CC Sabathia for any significant amount of time that may be exactly what happens.  Boston has improved quite a bit from where they were at the end of last season, although they apparently still have a ways to go.  The projections are expecting a big regression from Baltimore, although they have enough talented young players with upside that they could beat their projections by quite a bit.
     

The AL Central basically looks like Detroit and everyone else.  Kansas City and Cleveland are jockeying behind the Tigers.  It’ll be interesting to see what the Indians get out of Scott Kazmir, who did not have a Steamer projection and projected pretty poorly in all the other systems.  He’s throwing harder than he was when last seen in the majors and could surprise some people.  For the Royals, it looks like Big Game James may not get into many big games this year, although stranger things have happened.  The White Sox are projected to fall off a bit from last season, and the Twins look like they aren’t going to be very good.

There’s a new floormat in the AL West, and it’s the Houston Astros.  Can they lose 100+ games for the third year in a row?  The projections think they can.  Houston projects to be so bad that they have essentially balanced out the league difference between the AL and NL.  Last year, the AL went 1150-1118 thanks to interleague play.  If you add Houston’s 55-107 to that you get a record of 1205-1225.  Los Anaheim looks like the favorite here and project to win more games than any other team in baseball, with Texas a strong second.  The Angels do have some concerns in their rotation, which could open the door for the Rangers.  Oakland projects to fall back a bit from last year, but still should be in contention.  Seattle still doesn’t look particularly good, although they should score some more runs this year, which is something.

The Nationals project as favorites in the NL East, especially now that the restrictions are off Stephen Strasburg.  The Braves aren’t quite at their level, but project to be pretty good as well.  The Phillies appear to be showing their age, and if Roy Halladay doesn’t bounce back they could be in trouble.  The Mets don’t look good to me, especially with Johan Santana looking iffy and the Marlins may be as bad as the Astros.  If Placido Polanco is hitting cleanup to ‘protect’ Giancarlo Stanton, it’s hard to see them winning 60 games.

In the Central, the Reds look like the clear favorite.  The Cardinals were closer before losing Chris Carpenter and Rafael Furcal, but they seem like the second best team in the division.  Pittsburgh and Milwaukee are neck and neck with each other and the Cubs look to be bringing up the rear.

In the West, the Dodgers are spending money like there’s no tomorrow but I’m not so sure they’re spending it all that well.  They project a hair better than San Francisco but given the margin of error inherent in projections there’s really no difference in their projections.  The Diamondbacks had a bizarre offseason and losing Adam Eaton for two months hurts, but they should be in the mix if a few things go their way.  The Padres look a bit better than I expected, although still not good and the Rockies stink.

Usually there’s a surprise team or two in here but this year nothing really stands out.  In general it seems that aside from a handful of really bad teams we’re seeing more parity.  Between that and the second wild card you can pretty much see any team in baseball sneaking into the postseason.  Except the Astros.

And there you have it.  The 2013 projection blowout.  Results are not guaranteed.

On an unrelated note, our sister site, the Replacement Level Red Sox launches today. Check them out at replacementlevelredsox.com.

--Posted at 6:59 am by SG / 45 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, February 13, 2013

CAIRO 2013 v0.4 and Still Slightly Early and Somewhat Useless 2013 Projected MLB Standings

I found some problems with my pitcher WAR calculations so I’ve made an update to CAIRO which is now up to version 0.4.  It can be downloaded at the following link.

cairo_2013_v0.4.zip.
Version v0.5 now available.  cairo_2013_v0.5.zip

Aside from the pitcher WAR fix the only other changes are moving players to new teams.  And for the hell of it, I ran more projected standings reflecting those moves.

Date 2/12/2013
Iterations 100000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Blue Jays 90 72 810 727 29.1% 10.2% 9.6% 48.9%
Rays 88 74 715 645 25.4% 10.2% 9.6% 45.2%
Yankees 87 75 790 739 24.2% 9.6% 9.1% 42.9%
Red Sox 82 80 812 798 15.0% 7.2% 7.8% 30.0%
Orioles 76 86 731 790 6.2% 3.5% 4.7% 14.4%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Tigers 87 75 800 735 40.1% 5.6% 6.9% 52.6%
Indians 81 81 746 735 21.8% 5.1% 6.0% 32.8%
Royals 80 82 723 734 19.2% 4.9% 5.7% 29.7%
White Sox 77 85 730 783 15.1% 3.7% 4.8% 23.6%
Twins 66 96 694 837 3.8% 0.9% 1.7% 6.4%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Angels 91 71 757 652 35.9% 12.0% 9.5% 57.3%
Rangers 89 73 795 722 31.7% 12.5% 9.8% 54.0%
Athletics 87 75 731 675 26.2% 11.5% 9.9% 47.6%
Mariners 73 89 668 724 5.7% 3.0% 4.4% 13.1%
Astros 58 104 647 894 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 1.4%
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Nationals 92 70 707 592 46.7% 10.5% 8.2% 65.4%
Braves 88 74 682 632 28.0% 11.5% 8.8% 48.3%
Phillies 82 80 665 668 17.1% 8.2% 8.3% 33.5%
Mets 73 89 666 721 6.0% 3.4% 4.5% 13.9%
Marlins 66 96 625 759 2.2% 1.2% 2.1% 5.5%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Reds 91 71 746 650 41.9% 9.5% 7.6% 59.0%
Cardinals 86 76 699 660 27.3% 8.6% 8.0% 43.9%
Brewers 78 84 713 751 12.7% 5.2% 5.9% 23.8%
Pirates 78 84 670 691 11.7% 4.9% 6.3% 22.9%
Cubs 73 89 646 707 6.4% 2.8% 3.7% 12.8%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Dodgers 89 73 689 609 32.5% 9.3% 8.7% 50.6%
Giants 88 74 673 606 28.9% 8.5% 9.4% 46.7%
Diamondbacks 84 78 705 684 20.7% 8.1% 8.3% 37.1%
Padres 80 82 663 670 12.9% 5.6% 6.8% 25.3%
Rockies 72 90 776 884 5.0% 2.7% 3.6% 11.3%

W: Projected final 2013 wins
L: Projected final 2013 losses
RS: Projected final 2013 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2013 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

The big mover here is Cleveland, as they’ve gained 7 wins from the last set of projected standings and now look like about a .500 team.  The Yankees stayed where they were, at about 87 wins and third place in the East. 

I probably won’t run more standings until right before the season starts, which will include other projection systems and better rosters and depth charts.  Then they’ll probably be only kind of useless.

--Posted at 6:33 am by SG / 70 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, December 18, 2012

NYDN: Dickey to Jays makes Girardi’s job tougher

Joe Girardi’s job got a little tougher this week — and he knows it.

The Blue Jays continued their busy winter, trading four players to the Mets in exchange for R.A. Dickey, the National League’s reigning Cy Young Award winner.

Dickey joins a rotation that had already bulked up with the additions of Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson, adding them to incumbent starters Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero to form a very deep starting five.

“The Blue Jays have done a lot to improve their team,” Girardi said in an e-mail to the Daily News. “Adding a pitcher like Dickey gives them another quality starter at the top of their rotation. When you look at Toronto’s rotation, it now has a lot of different looks and a lot of experience with Johnson, Buehrle and now Dickey.”

I don’t expect Dickey to repeat his 2012, but CAIRO still likes him a lot in 2013.  As a Jay he projects to put up an ERA of around 3.65 over 211 innings which would be worth somewhere in the area of 4.5 - 5 wins.  Here’s how the AL East now projects adding Dickey to the Jays, Stephen Drew to the Red Sox and a few other tweaks to the other teams’ depth charts.

TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Blue Jays 90 72 805 724 28.2% 10.3% 9.9% 48.4%
Yankees 88 74 790 739 24.4% 10.4% 9.7% 44.5%
Rays 87 75 699 636 23.9% 9.8% 9.2% 42.9%
Red Sox 84 78 815 782 16.6% 7.8% 8.5% 32.9%
Orioles 77 85 729 781 6.8% 4.1% 5.6% 16.6%

The teams are still pretty tightly bunched, but Toronto’s got a bit of a separation from the pack now.  Anyway, projected standings in December don’t really tell us all that much so please Orioles fans don’t kill me.

--Posted at 9:09 am by SG / 36 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, December 12, 2012

How Does Signing Youkilis Impact the AL East?

I re-ran my projected standings with Kevin Youkilis getting 500 PA split among 3B, 1B and DH and here’s how it impacted the AL East projected standings.

Before:

TM  W   Div  WC1   WC2  PS%
Rays 86.0 25.8% 8.4% 10.2% 44.4%
Blue Jays 86.0 25.3% 9.2% 8.2% 42.7%
Yankees 85.0 23.0% 8.6% 7.7% 39.3%
Red Sox 84.0 20.1% 7.7% 8.4% 36.2%
Orioles 73.0 5.8% 3.1% 5.0% 13.9%

After:

TM W Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Blue Jays 86.5 25.3% 9.0% 8.7% 42.9%
Yankees 86.4 25.0% 8.7% 9.2% 42.9%
Rays 86.0 24.6% 8.7% 8.8% 42.1%
Red Sox 82.6 17.9% 6.9% 8.4% 33.2%
Orioles 74.1 7.3% 3.7% 4.8% 15.8%

Difference:

TM W Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Blue Jays 0.5 -0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7%
Yankees 1.4 0.1% 1.5% 3.6% 5.0%
Rays 0.0 0.3% -1.4% -2.3% -3.6%
Red Sox -1.4 -0.8% 0.0% -3.0% -3.0%
Orioles 1.1 0.6% -0.2% 1.9% 1.7%

This includes all the other moves that were made since I ran these as well as some adjustments in playing time so that also affects this, but basically adding Youkilis if he can get 500 PA is worth about a win and a half or so.  Is that worth $12M?  It depends on how much you value a 5% increase in qualifying for the postseason I guess.

--Posted at 8:24 am by SG / 65 Comments | - (0)




Monday, December 10, 2012

CAIRO 2013 v0.2’s Extremely Early and Completely Useless 2013 Projected MLB Standings

Since I was curious about how the big trade between Kansas City and Tampa Bay affected the AL East, I ran some projected standings based on rosters as of last night.  As the title says, this is extremely early and completely useless so think of it more as a goof than anything too serious.  So using CAIRO v0.2 and the depth charts from MLB Depth Charts and Rotochamp as a rough gauge of playing time, here’s how the 2013 MLB season looks as of December 10.

Update: CAIRO v0.5 is now available

Date 12/10/2012
Iterations 100000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Rays 86 76 698 643 25.8% 8.4% 10.2% 44.4%
Blue Jays 86 76 789 741 25.3% 9.2% 8.2% 42.7%
Yankees 85 77 771 738 23.0% 8.6% 7.7% 39.3%
Red Sox 84 78 788 759 20.1% 7.7% 8.4% 36.2%
Orioles 73 89 718 780 5.8% 3.1% 5.0% 13.9%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Tigers 91 71 791 709 46.2% 7.3% 6.0% 59.5%
Royals 84 78 717 701 24.7% 6.4% 8.3% 39.4%
White Sox 80 82 725 755 18.2% 4.4% 6.5% 29.0%
Indians 73 89 692 768 7.3% 2.7% 4.0% 14.0%
Twins 65 97 696 854 3.7% 1.6% 1.6% 6.9%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Angels 95 67 726 616 43.4% 12.8% 9.3% 65.6%
Rangers 88 74 762 699 24.7% 12.1% 10.6% 47.5%
Athletics 88 74 712 653 25.2% 11.0% 8.6% 44.8%
Mariners 74 88 626 692 6.0% 4.3% 5.0% 15.3%
Astros 60 102 651 850 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% 1.8%
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Nationals 94 68 699 590 46.4% 9.9% 8.0% 64.2%
Braves 86 76 686 630 23.8% 11.2% 8.9% 43.9%
Phillies 82 80 666 657 18.0% 7.0% 7.9% 32.9%
Mets 75 87 665 715 8.3% 4.7% 5.3% 18.2%
Marlins 69 93 625 729 3.5% 2.0% 2.9% 8.4%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Reds 91 71 722 635 41.9% 7.9% 7.5% 57.3%
Cardinals 86 76 696 645 28.0% 7.9% 8.7% 44.6%
Brewers 78 84 711 742 12.7% 5.2% 6.5% 24.4%
Pirates 77 85 663 688 11.1% 5.5% 6.6% 23.1%
Cubs 71 91 635 721 6.3% 2.4% 3.5% 12.1%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Dodgers 90 72 677 587 35.0% 9.3% 9.0% 53.4%
Giants 87 75 663 598 27.6% 9.8% 8.2% 45.6%
Diamondbacks 81 81 692 678 15.9% 7.1% 7.1% 30.1%
Padres 81 81 659 654 15.9% 7.7% 7.6% 31.3%
Rockies 71 91 770 865 5.6% 2.4% 2.5% 10.5%

The Astros are going to make it awfully easy for the AL West teams to win the wild cards, aren’t they?

Did I mention that these are extremely early and completely useless?

--Posted at 8:50 am by SG / 60 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, December 6, 2012

2013 CAIRO MLB Projections v0.2

I’ve decided to post an update for CAIRO since the Yankees have made so many significant moves.  Well, maybe not but some teams have.

It can be downloaded at the following link.

cairo_2013_mlb_projections_v0.2.zip

Update: CAIRO v0.5 is now available

As far as what’s changed since version 0.1:
- I’ve moved players that have switched teams
- Added a few players like Kyuji Fujikawa
- Added a tab for projected wOBA platoon splits.  You can replace CAIRO’s projected wOBA with any other you like and it will recalculate them.  These are based on the work done on platoon splits in The Book and a spreadsheet designed by berselius from ObstructedView.net.
- Since I don’t bother with projecting playing time aside from whatever CAIRO spits out, I’ve got additional tabs for batters and pitchers based on the depth charts at RotoChamp.  CAIRO’s more for statistical analysis than Fantasy but hopefully this will help out any people that want to use it for Fantasy and it’s set up so that I can update it very easily in future releases.

As a goof I ran 100 iterations of the 2013 MLB schedule to get some projected standings but won’t post the whole thing.  Here’s how the AL East looks as of last night.

Team W L RF RA Div WC1 WC2
TAM 88 74 687 620 33.5 10.8 11.5
NYA 87 75 773 732 32.0 8.0 7.5
TOR 86 76 797 754 24.5 7.5 14.5
BOS 80 82 793 782 5.0 4.5 5.5
BAL 77 85 728 777 5.0 2.8 4.5

Get to work Cashman!

--Posted at 7:08 am by SG / 60 Comments | - (0)




Friday, September 28, 2012

The Division “Lead”

Standings on July 27th, 2012



Current Standings


--Posted at 12:08 am by Jonathan / 11 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, September 11, 2012

The Postseason Implications of this Series with Boston

Now W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 73 89 0.0% - - -
Red Sox 3-0 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 75 87 0.0% - - -
Red Sox 2-1 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 74 88 0.0% - - -
Yankees 2-1 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 73 89 0.0% - - -
Yankees 3-0 W L Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Red Sox 72 90 0.0% - - -

W: Projected final 2012 wins
L: Projected final 2012 losses
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

 

--Posted at 10:13 am by SG / 11 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, September 6, 2012

The Postseason Implications of this series with Baltimore

I have to admit that I really have no idea how good the 2012 Orioles are.  Much has been made of the fact that they’ve been outscored this season, but that ignores the fact that their current roster is not the same as the roster they had earlier in the year.  Team talent is not static, and any analysis that assumes that what the Orioles have done all season long is the best way to assess how good they are at this very moment is simplistic and lazy. 

That being said, I’m kind of lazy myself and don’t feel like revising and re-running all their projections right now.  But anyone that wants to discuss how good/bad the Orioles really are should at least acknowledge that they’re no longer giving starts to Tommy Hunter, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta, and what they did in the rotation in the first half of the year should have little bearing on how good the Orioles will be over the rest of the season.  The fact is, they’re right in the heart of the postseason race and anything can happen from here on out.  They very well could win the World Series if everything falls into place for them.

I also am fairly uncertain about how good the Yankees are right now.  I’m reasonably sure they’re not the 94 win team they projected to be at the start of the year when they had Mo and Brett Gardner and Michael Pineda, and that they probably won’t be that good through the end of the year given the injuries they’ve been dealing with and the apparent loss of Curtis Granderson and Andruw Jones’s ability to hit a baseball.  Jones should be less of a concern than Granderson, but Joe Girardi’s stubborn insistence on playing him against every LHP the Yankees face makes him a lot more important to this team than he ought to be.  Especially when teams are champing at the bit to throw every LHP they can find against the Yankees, which is logical. 

We also don’t know if/when they’ll get Mark Teixeira, Ivan Nova and Andy Pettitte back and what they’ll do if/when they do come back.  All three have the potential to significantly improve this team, but all three have a very realistic chance of not being able to return and be effective.  I don’t think that’s pessimistic, I just think it’s realistic.  If the Yankees can get all three back, they improve the lineup and the rotation and the bullpen and start to look like one of the better teams in baseball, if not the best, again.

Rather than using projections and YTD performance for this run through the postseason implications of this series, I’m going to just assume that the Yankees and Orioles are roughly .500 teams.  So consider this more theoretical than the typical postseason odds I run.

In that case, here’s how the postseason probabilites for the AL look as of this morning. 

TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 90 72 782 677 45.0% 13.6% 15.5% 74.1%
Rays 89 73 694 603 29.2% 12.9% 18.0% 60.2%
Orioles 89 73 699 737 25.8% 12.5% 14.8% 53.0%
Red Sox 75 87 781 775 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 73 89 732 783 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 88 74 754 703 61.7% 1.8% 4.2% 67.6%
Tigers 87 75 742 692 38.3% 2.3% 6.9% 47.5%
Royals 73 89 681 745 0.0% - - -
Indians 68 94 668 827 0.0% - - -
Twins 68 94 720 835 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 96 66 834 698 94.8% 3.8% 0.6% 99.2%
Athletics 89 73 691 631 3.6% 37.6% 21.6% 62.8%
Angels 87 75 772 699 1.7% 15.4% 18.6% 35.7%
Mariners 78 84 632 651 0.0% - - -

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

And here’s how they look for each of the possible outcomes of this series.

Orioles 4-0 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Orioles 90 72 699 737 55.6% 11.6% 12.6% 79.8%
Rays 88 74 694 603 27.8% 11.6% 16.3% 55.7%
Yankees 88 74 782 677 15.8% 14.7% 19.1% 49.6%
Red Sox 74 88 781 775 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 73 89 732 783 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 88 74 754 703 64.0% 2.0% 3.6% 69.5%
Tigers 86 76 742 692 35.3% 3.0% 5.4% 43.7%
Royals 73 89 681 745 0.0% - - -
Indians 68 94 668 827 0.0% - - -
Twins 67 95 720 835 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 95 67 834 698 93.9% 4.4% 0.9% 99.2%
Athletics 88 74 691 631 3.9% 35.3% 22.3% 61.6%
Angels 87 75 772 699 1.4% 16.6% 19.2% 37.1%
Mariners 77 85 632 651 0.0% - - -
Orioles 3-1 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Orioles 89 73 699 737 39.0% 14.6% 15.7% 69.3%
Yankees 89 73 782 677 30.2% 15.7% 16.5% 62.5%
Rays 89 73 694 603 30.6% 13.4% 15.9% 59.9%
Red Sox 75 87 781 775 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 73 89 732 783 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 88 74 754 703 64.1% 2.3% 4.2% 70.5%
Tigers 87 75 742 692 35.7% 2.6% 4.9% 43.2%
Royals 73 89 681 745 0.0% - - -
Indians 68 94 668 827 0.0% - - -
Twins 67 95 720 835 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 96 66 834 698 94.5% 3.9% 1.3% 99.6%
Athletics 89 73 691 631 4.1% 33.1% 23.3% 60.5%
Angels 87 75 772 699 1.3% 14.3% 18.1% 33.7%
Mariners 78 84 632 651 0.0% - - -
2-2 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 90 72 782 677 47.3% 13.7% 13.6% 74.6%
Rays 89 73 694 603 30.1% 12.7% 16.1% 58.8%
Orioles 89 73 699 737 22.6% 11.3% 20.9% 54.8%
Red Sox 75 87 781 775 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 73 89 732 783 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 89 73 754 703 60.9% 2.6% 4.0% 67.5%
Tigers 87 75 742 692 39.1% 2.4% 5.9% 47.4%
Royals 73 89 681 745 0.0% - - -
Indians 68 94 668 827 0.0% - - -
Twins 68 94 720 835 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 96 66 834 698 94.7% 4.4% 0.2% 99.3%
Athletics 89 73 691 631 4.2% 35.6% 21.5% 61.3%
Angels 87 75 772 699 1.2% 17.2% 18.0% 36.4%
Mariners 78 84 632 651 0.0% - - -
Yankees 3-1 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 91 71 782 677 67.5% 10.5% 8.7% 86.7%
Rays 89 73 694 603 22.8% 16.8% 17.7% 57.3%
Orioles 88 74 699 737 9.7% 11.3% 18.5% 39.4%
Red Sox 75 87 781 775 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 73 89 732 783 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 88 74 754 703 63.4% 2.0% 2.8% 68.2%
Tigers 87 75 742 692 36.6% 3.0% 5.5% 45.1%
Royals 73 89 681 745 0.0% - - -
Indians 68 94 668 827 0.0% - - -
Twins 68 94 720 835 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 96 66 834 698 94.2% 4.2% 0.9% 99.2%
Athletics 89 73 691 631 4.3% 36.5% 24.5% 65.3%
Angels 87 75 772 699 1.6% 15.8% 21.5% 38.8%
Mariners 78 84 632 651 0.0% - - -
Yankees 4-0 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 92 70 782 677 79.6% 10.5% 6.1% 96.3%
Rays 89 73 694 603 17.9% 22.0% 23.6% 63.5%
Orioles 86 76 699 737 2.3% 8.5% 13.6% 24.4%
Red Sox 75 87 781 775 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 73 89 732 783 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 88 74 754 703 61.1% 3.0% 4.0% 68.1%
Tigers 87 75 742 692 38.7% 3.1% 6.5% 48.3%
Royals 73 89 681 745 0.0% - - -
Indians 68 94 668 827 0.0% - - -
Twins 67 95 720 835 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 96 66 834 698 95.2% 3.7% 0.9% 99.7%
Athletics 89 73 691 631 3.6% 35.1% 24.5% 63.2%
Angels 87 75 772 699 1.1% 13.8% 20.7% 35.6%
Mariners 78 84 632 651 0.0% - - -

Remember that I’m assuming the Yankees are Orioles are .500 teams.  If you think that’s too pessimistic for the Yankees and too optimistic for the Orioles adjust accordingly.

The Yankees, Orioles, Rays, White Sox, Tigers, A’s and Angels are all bunched within four games of each other, so it’s likely going to be a dogfight to qualify for the postseason.  Hopefully the Yankees are better than a .500 team and can pull away from the pack a bit. 

Getting back to Yanks vs. O’s, your pitching matchups for the series are:

Thursday, September 6, 2012
David Phelps, RHP (3-4, 3.13 ERA) vs. Jason Hammel, RHP (8-6, 3.54 ERA)

Phelps hasn’t been great over his last couple of starts, including his last start against Baltimore where he walked 6 in 4.2 innings.  Hammel was the Orioles’ best starter through June 22 with a 2.61 ERA, but he lost effectiveness over his last four starts, probably at least partially due to a knee injury that ended up requiring surgery that put him on the DL on July 13.  He’s making his first start since returning from the DL and may be rusty.  Let’s hope so.

Friday, September 7, 2012
Phil Hughes, RHP (13-12, 4.18 ERA) vs. Wei-Yin Chen, LHP (12-8, 3.79 ERA)

Hughes was cruising through his last start against Baltimore through five innings, but the wheels came off in the sixth.  Maybe if he walks Mark Reynolds every time he can keep the Yankees in this game.  Wei-Yin Chen was dominant against the Yankees in his last start, but his bullpen and defense ended up making his final line look less than great in a game the Yankees stole thanks to a J.J. Hardy error.

Saturday, September 8, 2012
CC Sabathia, LHP (13-4, 3.42 ERA) vs. Joe Saunders, LHP (1-1, 4.63 ERA)

Two finesse lefties face off in the third game of this series.  The Yankees really needed a big game from CC in his last start against Tampa, but didn’t get it.  I’d like to think they’ll get it here but CC hasn’t looked like CC this year and while his peripheral stats are pretty similar to what they’ve been throughout his Yankee career, his fastball velocity is still down almost 2 mph and I think it’s having a significant impact on his effectiveness.  Saunders is back from Little League, and has made one crappy start and one pretty good one.  As a lefty, he’s sure to give the Yankees fits.

Sunday, September 9, 2012
Freddy Garcia, RHP (7-6, 5.09 ERA) vs. Zach Britton, LHP (5-1, 4.15 ERA)

Garcia’s got a 7.53 ERA over his last three starts while averaging less than 5 innings per game.  He’s given up 12 runs over those three games.  Zach Britton has a 0.94 ERA over his last four starts, and has struck out 29 hitters in 28.2 innings while going 4-0.  Oh, and he’s a lefty. 

I hate these pitching matchups.  It will be a monumental task for the Yankees to win this series.  I suppose Phelps vs. Hammel might be okay if Phelps rebounds a bit and Hammel is rusty.  I’d be shocked if Hughes outpitched Chen.  CC should be able to beat Saunders, but WTF knows?  And that last game looks like a disaster.

I think we’re looking at a split here at best, and wouldn’t be surprised to see the Orioles taking 3 out of 4.  Even if that happens, that just means the Yankees will be down by a game in the division as they head to Boston for three games while the Orioles get to host Tampa Bay for three.  Unfortunately, this will probably be Boston’s version of the postseason.  Fortunately, Boston’s probably not all that good right now and it may not matter.

I realize we feel like the Yankees should be in the postseason every year given their payroll, but it’s kind of fun to have meaningful games in September, isn’t it?  Living and dying on every pitch for a month is an emotional roller coaster but that’s part of the entertainment factor of baseball, and one we don’t necessarily get enough of as Yankee fans who usually are watching their team set up their postseason rotation over the last few weeks of the year.  It’s like an extended version of the postseason.

It also might be a good reminder that just getting into the postseason is a pretty good accomplishment in and of itself and the season’s not a failure if the Yankees don’t win the World Series.  Despite what Randy Levine will surely say at the end of the year if they don’t.

--Posted at 8:19 am by SG / 35 Comments | - (0)




Monday, September 3, 2012

Yankees.com: Yankees’ grip on East lead looser after loss

“It’s not a good feeling,” the Yankees’ Robinson Cano said. “You lose some games, and you just want to win games. You don’t want to put your head down. We’ve just got to turn the page; just be ready for tomorrow.”

That may be more difficult for Cano than others; the second baseman felt discomfort in his left hip trying to flag down the go-ahead hit, Chris Gimenez’s soft eighth-inning dribbler off losing pitcher David Robertson, as it scooted through the right side of the infield.

The Yankees do not expect Cano’s injury to force him to miss more than a day, but now that they’ve seen what was once a 10-game lead in the AL East trimmed to a single contest by virtue of the Orioles’ win over the Blue Jays, off-days are a luxury the Yankees can’t afford.

“I would love to keep the lead,” manager Joe Girardi said. “When you win the division, you don’t really care what you win by. You’d just love to keep the lead. That’s important.”

Scoring runs is also important. Staying healthy too. The Yankees seem to suck at both lately.

--Posted at 8:50 pm by Jonathan / 24 Comments | - (0)




Friday, August 31, 2012

NJ.com: Carig: Yankees face Orioles in crucial series with first place in sight for Baltimore

However, sometimes numbers fail to project reality, and the status quo is rendered meaningless. Which is why as the Orioles arrive today for a three-game series, the Yankees find themselves faced with an unsettling reality.

Their lead in the American League East — which once stood at a seemingly insurmountable 10 games — has been whittled down to just three.

Inconceivable as it may have seemed just a month ago, an Orioles sweep this weekend would give them a share of first place with the Yankees, who have spent the last several weeks leaking oil.

The Orioles are really pissing Pythagoras off.  The Yankees can help soothe him by winning two or three of the games in this series.  Your pitching match ups for this series:

Friday, August 31
Miguel Gonzalez, RHP (5-3, 3.66 ERA) vs. Hiroki Kuroda, RHP (12-9, 2.98 ERA)

Saturday, September 1
Wei-Yin Chen, LHP (12-7, 3.78 ERA) vs. Freddy Garcia, RHP (7-5, 4.90 ERA)

Sunday, September 2
To Be Announced Chris Tillman, RHP (7-2, 3.26 ERA) vs. David Phelps, RHP (3-4, 2.96 ERA)

Not digging that Saturday match up much, and to be announced is never an easy pitcher to face so tonight’s game seems pretty freaking important.  Plus winning tonight would guarantee that the Yankees would still be in first place on Monday, and that would be cool.

Update The postseason odds implications of this series are below.

Now W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 93 69 794 674 87.5% 5.5% 4.2% 97.1%
Rays 88 74 695 607 9.4% 23.5% 27.1% 60.0%
Orioles 86 76 689 754 3.1% 6.8% 14.0% 24.0%
Red Sox 77 85 801 760 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 74 88 745 777 0.0% - - -
Orioles 3 - 0 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 91 71 794 674 70.5% 10.6% 7.4% 88.4%
Rays 88 74 695 607 15.6% 16.4% 21.5% 53.4%
Orioles 88 74 689 754 13.9% 13.8% 21.7% 49.3%
Red Sox 77 85 801 760 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 74 88 745 777 0.0% - - -
Orioles 2 -1 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 92 70 794 674 81.7% 8.4% 4.5% 94.6%
Rays 88 74 695 607 12.8% 18.4% 24.8% 55.9%
Orioles 87 75 689 754 5.5% 11.9% 18.6% 36.0%
Red Sox 77 85 801 760 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0%
Blue Jays 74 88 745 777 0.0% - - -
Yankees 2-1 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 93 69 794 674 88.4% 5.6% 3.0% 96.9%
Rays 88 74 695 607 10.4% 22.7% 27.5% 60.6%
Orioles 86 76 689 754 1.2% 7.8% 14.2% 23.3%
Red Sox 77 85 801 760 0.0% - - -
Blue Jays 74 88 745 777 0.0% - - -
Yankees 3-0 W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 94 68 794 674 92.9% 4.4% 2.0% 99.3%
Rays 88 74 695 607 6.2% 24.1% 29.8% 60.1%
Orioles 85 77 689 754 0.8% 5.9% 12.1% 18.9%
Red Sox 77 85 801 760 0.0% - 0.1% 0.1%
Blue Jays 74 88 745 777 0.0% - - -

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

--Posted at 9:58 am by SG / 28 Comments | - (0)




Friday, August 24, 2012

NYDN: Yankees may need dominant final run to best AL East rivals

With six games remaining against the Rays and seven against the Orioles — all 13 of those games coming during a 17-day stretch beginning Aug. 31 — the Yankees will have every opportunity to control their own destiny.

“We play everyone,” Derek Jeter said. “It’s going to be tough, but all the teams that are close to us, we play. If we win, we win.”

The Rays have been the hottest team in baseball, entering Thursday 18-6 since July 28 to trim their deficit in the AL East from 9½ games to three.

While it’s true that the division will likely be decided mostly by how the Yankees, Rays and Orioles play against each other over the final stretch of the season, here’s how the three teams’ schedules compare.

Orioles xW Rays xW Yankees xW
3 vs Blue Jays 1.47 2 vs Athletics 1.14 3 @ Indians 1.90
4 vs White Sox 1.77 3 @ Rangers 1.41 3 vs Blue Jays 1.85
3 @ Yankees 1.06 4 @ Blue Jays 2.22 3 vs Orioles 1.94
3 @ Blue Jays 1.35 3 vs Yankees 1.50 3 @ Rays 1.50
4 vs Yankees 1.57 3 vs Rangers 1.53 4 @ Orioles 2.43
3 vs Rays 1.24 3 @ Orioles 1.76 3 @ Red Sox 1.57
3 @ Athletics 1.26 3 @ Yankees 1.38 3 vs Rays 1.62
3 @ Mariners 1.33 4 vs Red Sox 2.18 3 vs Blue Jays 1.85
3 @ Red Sox 1.19 3 vs Blue Jays 1.79 3 vs Athletics 1.77
3 vs Blue Jays 1.47 2 @ Red Sox 1.01 3 @ Twins 1.89
3 vs Red Sox 1.31 4 @ White Sox 2.04 4 @ Blue Jays 2.31
3 @ Rays 1.12 3 vs Orioles 1.88 3 vs Red Sox 1.69

xW are expected wins for each series using Bill James’s Log 5 methodology accounting for home field advantage.  According to that, the Orioles should win about 16 of their remaining games, the Rays should win about 20 and the Yankees should win about 22.  If we remove the games against each other, the schedules look like this.

Orioles xW Rays xW Yankees xW
3 vs Blue Jays 1.47 2 vs Athletics 1.14 3 @ Indians 1.90
4 vs White Sox 1.77 3 @ Rangers 1.41 3 vs Blue Jays 1.85
3 @ Blue Jays 1.35 4 @ Blue Jays 2.22 3 @ Red Sox 1.57
3 @ Athletics 1.26 3 vs Rangers 1.53 3 vs Blue Jays 1.85
3 @ Mariners 1.33 4 vs Red Sox 2.18 3 vs Athletics 1.77
3 @ Red Sox 1.19 3 vs Blue Jays 1.79 3 @ Twins 1.89
3 vs Blue Jays 1.47 2 @ Red Sox 1.01 4 @ Blue Jays 2.31
3 vs Red Sox 1.31 4 @ White Sox 2.04 3 vs Red Sox 1.69
11.14 13.31 14.83

The most difficult part of the Orioles’ schedule over the rest of the season is probably those four games against the White Sox and the three games in Oakland.  They also have 9 games left vs. Toronto, who should be better with this weekend’s expected returns of Jose Bautista and Brandon Morrow.

The Rays probably have the most difficult remaining schedule of the three teams with six games against Texas and four games at Chicago. 

In theory, the Yankees have the benefit of playing the slumping Indians and Twins three times apiece and have 10 games left against Toronto, although that’s likely to be less of an advantage with Bautista back and Morrow probably starting three of those games. 

The common thorn in the ass for all three teams is the six games they have against Boston.  As much as the Red Sox have underwhelmed this season, they’ll surely relish the chance to play spoiler for someone.

On paper, the Yankees have the easiest schedule of the three teams, but it probably won’t matter much if they don’t play well against Baltimore and Tampa Bay.

--Posted at 8:03 am by SG / 33 Comments | - (0)




Friday, August 17, 2012

NYDN: Boston Red Sox visit Yankees with improbable dream to earn AL wild card spot

Boston is teetering on falling out of contention, despite winning in Baltimore Thursday night, 6-3. Players have complained to ownership about manager Bobby Valentine on more than one occasion. Owners have held a clandestine meeting with players, and Valentine wasn’t invited. And subsequent to this, all public sentiment has been supportive of the manager. It’s perplexing and reeks of dysfunction. A Yankees sweep could be the wreck on the hiighway.

The Sox say they still believe they will get hot, even though they’ve lost a lot more than they’ve won since the July 26 secret meetings (there also was one between ownership and Valentine). Their reality is it has to happen soon. The teams that lead for the AL wild cards are on pace to win approximately 87 games; the Sox could get there by winning about two out of every three to finish.

Here’s how I have MLB’s postseason odds looking as of this morning.

TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 95 67 814 678 87.6% 8.0% 1.4% 97.0%
Rays 87 75 695 623 9.8% 31.6% 21.4% 62.8%
Orioles 82 80 690 765 1.7% 7.7% 11.3% 20.6%
Red Sox 80 82 804 741 0.6% 3.0% 5.7% 9.3%
Blue Jays 75 87 765 780 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.7%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 90 72 751 699 66.2% 6.8% 8.5% 81.5%
Tigers 87 75 760 722 33.5% 13.8% 14.3% 61.6%
Indians 73 89 712 813 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Royals 71 91 679 749 0.0% - - -
Twins 69 93 727 836 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 94 68 816 711 86.5% 5.1% 2.8% 94.3%
Angels 84 78 750 691 6.3% 11.5% 18.9% 36.7%
Athletics 84 78 667 657 6.7% 11.9% 14.4% 33.0%
Mariners 76 86 648 674 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9%
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Nationals 98 64 709 601 75.0% 19.8% 5.1% 99.8%
Braves 94 68 747 643 24.8% 49.7% 15.8% 90.3%
Mets 77 85 700 748 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.8%
Phillies 75 87 673 692 0.0% - - -
Marlins 71 91 630 712 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Reds 96 66 703 614 78.6% 7.6% 7.6% 93.8%
Cardinals 90 72 774 653 14.6% 14.2% 35.3% 64.1%
Pirates 87 75 676 684 6.5% 6.8% 24.2% 37.5%
Brewers 76 86 730 730 0.0% - 0.5% 0.5%
Cubs 65 97 616 731 0.0% - - -
Astros 55 107 610 800 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Giants 87 75 683 652 50.1% 0.7% 3.5% 54.3%
Dodgers 86 76 647 632 36.2% 0.7% 4.3% 41.2%
Diamondbacks 83 79 717 681 13.5% 0.2% 2.8% 16.4%
Padres 70 92 618 695 0.0% - - -
Rockies 65 97 766 871 0.0% - - -

Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

The Yankees can’t eliminate Boston with a sweep this weekend, but they can make it almost impossible for them to win the AL East.  If the Yankees sweep Boston and then go 21-20 over the rest of the season, Boston would have to go 36-7 just to tie them.  If the Yankees went 14-27 they’d end up at the 87 wins that the wild card leaders are on target for and Boston would still have to go 29-14 to tie them.

Here are the pitching matchups for this series.

Friday, August 17
Franklin Morales vs. Phil Hughes

Saturday, August 18
Jon Lester vs. David Phelps

Sunday, August 19
Josh Beckett vs. Hiroki Kuroda

Since seemingly turning the corner with his start on May 6, Phil Hughes has had the occasional bad start.  However, until his last two turns in the rotation he’s been able to rebound in the following game.  On May 28 he gave up 7 runs in 5.1 innings in Anaheim and followed that up with a complete game four-hitter where allowed just one run in Detroit.  He gave up six runs at home against Atlanta on June 28 and followed that up with 8 shutout innings vs. Cleveland.  Since May 6, Hughes hadn’t allowed more than three runs in any two consecutive starts until his last two.

But now that he’s had back-to-back poor starts I have to admit my faith in him is shaken.  Tonight’s game would be a nice way to redeem some of that faith, but I’m not betting on him.

I like the other two match ups a bit better.  I’ll be pretty disappointed if the Yankees don’t take at least two of these three games.

 

--Posted at 8:31 am by SG / 45 Comments | - (0)




Monday, June 4, 2012

2012 MLB Projected Standings and Postseason Odds through June 3

It’s been a while since I last ran these, so here’s how things look as of this morning.  Team projections are based about 2/3 on their average pre-season projection from here and 1/3 on YTD performance in component runs scored and allowed, with some adjustments for roster changes and injuries.

Date 6/4/2012
Iterations 1000000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Yankees 90 72 811 705 35.5% 16.8% 13.6% 65.9% -4.6 -25 -7
Rays 89 73 740 667 30.4% 18.0% 14.1% 62.5% 0.0 -25 -16
Red Sox 86 76 836 750 21.2% 15.1% 14.2% 50.4% -4.1 7 16
Blue Jays 82 80 776 755 9.1% 8.5% 10.9% 28.5% 0.4 2 -20
Orioles 78 84 711 782 3.8% 4.6% 6.9% 15.3% 7.9 -1 -37
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
White Sox 85 77 731 735 43.4% 4.1% 5.5% 53.0% 9.0 24 -37
Indians 81 81 749 763 24.3% 3.6% 5.4% 33.3% -0.9 -18 11
Tigers 81 81 756 738 23.5% 3.1% 5.1% 31.7% -4.7 -28 2
Royals 74 88 685 747 7.6% 1.0% 2.1% 10.6% -0.5 -20 -18
Twins 66 96 701 837 1.3% 0.1% 0.3% 1.7% -5.6 -29 15
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 97 65 840 690 80.3% 6.5% 4.0% 90.8% 5.7 33 -12
Angels 85 77 700 639 16.8% 15.2% 12.6% 44.7% -5.0 -42 -22
Mariners 74 88 680 721 1.9% 2.4% 3.8% 8.1% -0.2 -2 -20
Athletics 71 91 645 713 1.0% 0.8% 1.6% 3.5% -5.0 -62 -43
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Nationals 88 74 659 614 29.3% 12.0% 10.8% 52.1% 3.8 -24 -42
Braves 87 75 730 681 25.0% 11.2% 10.7% 47.0% -0.6 16 15
Marlins 85 77 689 667 19.8% 10.2% 10.3% 40.3% 1.6 -18 -14
Phillies 85 77 693 640 18.4% 10.4% 10.5% 39.3% -4.2 -5 11
Mets 80 82 694 747 7.6% 5.2% 6.8% 19.6% 6.5 11 -6
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Reds 91 71 701 643 50.0% 11.7% 8.1% 69.8% 3.8 -14 -17
Cardinals 89 73 758 676 35.7% 13.0% 9.7% 58.4% 2.0 27 -2
Brewers 80 82 701 699 8.3% 4.8% 6.0% 19.1% -4.7 2 34
Pirates 77 85 611 693 4.9% 2.9% 4.3% 12.0% 5.3 -57 -59
Astros 69 93 630 745 0.8% 0.4% 0.8% 2.0% 5.7 25 -11
Cubs 65 97 630 744 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% -6.1 -26 -6
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Giants 87 75 660 638 39.4% 6.1% 6.4% 51.8% 2.5 -12 -10
Dodgers 87 75 659 659 38.3% 6.2% 6.8% 51.3% 11.6 18 -31
Diamondbacks 80 82 681 683 13.9% 3.5% 4.9% 22.4% -3.7 -12 10
Rockies 77 85 784 782 7.9% 2.2% 3.5% 13.6% -5.5 37 52
Padres 65 97 604 694 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% -10.6 -43 5

W: Projected final 2012 wins
L: Projected final 2012 losses
RS: Projected final 2012 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2012 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: 2012 revised projected wins minus 2012 pre-season projected wins
RS+/-: 2012 revised projected runs scored minus 2012 pre-season projected runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2012 revised projected runs allowed minus 2012 pre-season projected runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

The Yankees have regained their rightful place at the top of the division, although they can lose that tomorrow pretty easily.  They’re projecting to end the year almost five wins worse than they originally projected to, but at least so far no one aside from Texas in the AL looks like they’re likely to be much better.

The biggest surprise for me here is the White Sox, who are nine games ahead of their pre-season projections and now have a greater than 50% chance at their division.  There is little evidence of luck in their component stats, so they haven’t gotten lucky in terms of wins vs. actual performance so far this year.  Whether it will continue is the question, but no one else in their division looks all that great so why not? 

I am getting way too much schadenfreude out of the Phillies now projecting to fourth and Cliff Lee having 0 wins despite a 3.00 ERA.  Good choice Cliff!  THe Nationals now hold a slight edge over the Braves in a pretty balanced division from top to bottom.

The Reds have passed St. Louis in the NL Central, which currently looks like a two team race.  The Cubs and Padres are probably duking it out for worst team in baseball, which should please Twins and Astros fans.

The Dodgers are still the biggest overall gainer vs. pre-season projections although now it appears they’ll be neck and neck with San Francisco for the NL West. 

There are still four months left, so a lot of this can/will change.  So consider it more of a checkpoint than a prediction.

--Posted at 7:29 am by SG / 47 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, May 22, 2012

What if the Yankees Had Performed at an Average Rate with Runners on Base?

With all the harping on the Yankees’ performance with runners in scoring position of late, I wondered how many more wins they’d have if they had just performed at an average rate in all base/out situations and weren’t so unclutch.

If we replace the Yankees actual runs scored in each game with the linear weights batting runs instead, they’d be 22-20 instead of 21-21.  The only game they lost that they would have won was 4/24/2012 vs. Texas, the game where Yu Darvish out-dueled Hiroki Kuroda..

So no, this team really hasn’t been that unlucky.  They just haven’t played very well.

--Posted at 9:45 am by SG / 16 Comments | - (0)



Chicago Tribune: Yankees lose again, slip to .500

NEW YORK—They uttered the type of morale-boosting words teams search for when the results give them little to do but think of a brighter future.


Humbled by yet another loss in which their offense full of All-Stars stalled out, the New York Yankees emerged from their 6-0 defeat to the Kansas City Royals at on a windy, rainy Monday night vowing things would get better.


They could not get much worse at this point, as home runs by Mike Moustakas and Jeff Francoeur and 6 2/3 shutout innings by winning pitcher Felipe Paulino pushed the Yankees into a last-place tie with the Boston Red Sox.


Their sixth loss in their last seven games not only placed the Yankees (21-21) next to their usual neighbors at the top of the AL East at the bottom instead, but dropped them to .500 for the first time since April 18. Their struggling and sick first baseman, Mark Teixeira, endured a similar individual indignity, getting dropped to seventh in the lineup in his first start in four days, marking his lowest spot in the order in eight years, according to STATS LLC.

Remember when Boston was on the verge of collapse and we were all having fun? 

--Posted at 5:02 am by SG / 11 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, May 8, 2012

The Postseason Implications of This Week’s Series with Tampa Bay

The Yankees begin a six game homestand tonight with Tampa Bay.  Tampa Bay is tied for first place with Baltimore, but it’s a pretty safe bet that they’re better than Baltimore and are a bigger threat to the Yankees’ chances at winning the division. 

At the beginning of the season, the Yankees projected about three games better than Tampa Bay (94 wins vs. 91 wins) but the Rays now have a 3.5 game lead and the Yankees are a bit weaker with Michael Pineda on the shelf.  Based on what’s happened so far and playing out the rest of the season according to how the teams project going forward gives me a final AL East standings projection that looks something like this.

TMWLRSRADivWC1WC2PS%W+/-RS+/-RA+/-
Rays917176168244.6%26.0%12.8%83.4%2.1-4-1
Yankees917183371842.8%26.0%13.2%82.0%-3.7-46
Red Sox84788417696.9%9.2%16.6%32.7%-7.11235
Blue Jays82807737554.9%8.3%13.4%26.6%1.20-21
Orioles78847197830.9%2.3%4.8%8.0%8.36-36

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: 2012 revised projected wins minus 2012 pre-season projected wins
RS+/-: 2012 revised projected runs scored minus 2012 pre-season projected runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2012 revised projected runs allowed minus 2012 pre-season projected runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

The pitching matchups for this series are as follows.

Tuesday, May 8: The Undefeated James Shields (5-0, 3.05 ERA) vs. Ivan Nova (3-1, 5.58 ERA)
Wednesday, May 9: Jeff Niemann (2-3, 4.05 ERA) vs. David Phelps (0-1, 3.74 ERA)
Thursday, May 10: David Price (5-1, 2.35 ERA) vs. CC Sabathia (4-0, 4.15 ERA)

So here are how the standings and postseason odds change based on the various potential outcomes of this series.

Rays 3-0WLRSRADivWC1WC2PS%W+/-RS+/-RA+/-
Rays936976168261.0%18.8%8.3%88.1%3.8-4-1
Yankees897383371826.2%28.5%17.0%71.7%-5.3-46
Red Sox83798417695.6%11.7%15.4%32.8%-7.51235
Blue Jays83797737556.2%10.2%15.1%31.5%1.50-21
Orioles78847197831.0%2.8%5.4%9.2%8.36-36
Rays 2-1WLRSRADivWC1WC2PS%W+/-RS+/-RA+/-
Rays927076168251.9%21.4%12.5%85.7%2.7-4-1
Yankees907283371836.4%26.4%14.6%77.4%-4.3-46
Red Sox83798417695.6%10.5%16.7%32.8%-7.41235
Blue Jays83797737555.4%9.6%12.9%27.9%1.40-21
Orioles78847197830.8%2.0%6.5%9.3%8.06-36
Yankees 2-1WLRSRADivWC1WC2PS%W+/-RS+/-RA+/-
Yankees917183371844.7%24.9%13.9%83.5%-3.4-46
Rays917176168240.4%24.5%13.2%78.1%1.8-4-1
Red Sox83798417697.9%9.9%16.1%34.0%-7.21235
Blue Jays82807737555.5%8.4%12.7%26.5%1.20-21
Orioles78847197831.5%3.0%5.7%10.2%8.26-36
Yankees 3-0WLRSRADivWC1WC2PS%W+/-RS+/-RA+/-
Yankees927083371852.1%22.1%11.3%85.5%-2.6-46
Rays907276168233.9%26.6%15.7%76.2%0.8-4-1
Red Sox84788417697.7%11.2%15.1%34.0%-7.11235
Blue Jays82807737555.1%7.6%14.5%27.2%1.20-21
Orioles78847197831.1%2.4%6.4%10.0%8.46-36

Sure, it’s early.  And yes, the Yankees play the Rays enough times over the rest of the season to make up any ground they lose in this series, but this is still a pretty important series.  You might even say it’s the most important series of the season so far.

--Posted at 9:45 am by SG / 23 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, April 22, 2012

How have the first two weeks of the 2012 MLB season changed team projections?

We’re roughly about 10% of the way throught the 2012 regular season, which is a pretty small sample size to make sweeping observations about how good or bad teams are.  That doesn’t mean that what’s happened to this point isn’t important, because it is.  I wanted to see what teams have seen the biggest shifts in their outlooks based on how they projected coming into the year compared what they have done since.

The way I looked at this involves three basic steps.

1) Get 2012 projections.  In this case I’m using the average of the 2012 MLB projection blowout that I ran at the beginning of April.
2) Estimate revised team strength.  For now, this is just a basic weighted average of the team’s projections heading into the year and their Pythagenpat performance to this point.  I’m not making any adjustments for injuries/roster changes/etc., yet,  although as we get deeper into the season I’ll probably do that.
3) Run the rest of the 2012 MLB season through my Monte Carlo simulator and see what happens.  This includes a variable that alters team strength in each iteration to account for things that projections can’t account for.

Here’s what it says.

Date 4/22/2012
Iterations 100000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Yankees 94 68 848 718 49.0% 14.1% 24.0% 87.1% -0.8 12 7
Rays 87 75 764 695 23.9% 15.0% 34.6% 73.5% -2.0 -1 12
Red Sox 83 79 828 765 13.9% 11.2% 28.1% 53.1% -7.6 -2 32
Blue Jays 81 81 780 775 11.6% 7.8% 21.4% 40.9% -0.5 6 0
Orioles 70 92 712 812 1.6% 1.9% 6.2% 9.7% 0.1 -1 -6
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Tigers 88 74 780 730 46.6% 6.1% 17.7% 70.4% 2.9 -4 -6
Indians 86 76 779 758 33.4% 8.2% 22.3% 63.9% 3.6 12 7
White Sox 78 84 706 755 11.2% 4.4% 12.9% 28.5% 1.6 -1 -18
Royals 70 92 697 771 4.5% 0.8% 5.6% 10.9% -4.8 -8 6
Twins 70 92 720 824 4.2% 0.9% 3.7% 8.8% -1.6 -11 3
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 99 63 822 679 78.2% 7.4% 8.0% 93.6% 8.4 15 -24
Angels 85 77 738 667 17.0% 16.4% 28.9% 62.3% -5.1 -3 6
Mariners 73 89 672 734 2.8% 3.2% 7.8% 13.8% -1.5 -10 -7
Athletics 72 90 687 739 2.0% 2.8% 9.0% 13.8% -4.1 -20 -17
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Braves 90 72 734 664 32.5% 11.3% 23.7% 67.5% 2.3 20 -2
Phillies 88 74 677 611 25.9% 12.4% 21.6% 59.9% -1.4 -21 -17
Nationals 88 74 674 639 27.5% 10.4% 24.4% 62.3% 3.8 -8 -17
Marlins 82 80 699 672 11.3% 8.4% 18.2% 37.9% -1.8 -8 -9
Mets 74 88 677 749 2.8% 3.0% 8.5% 14.3% 0.2 -6 -3
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Cardinals 94 68 740 662 53.9% 10.5% 16.8% 81.1% 7.2 9 -17
Brewers 86 76 700 677 21.2% 9.5% 19.0% 49.7% 1.2 1 13
Reds 84 78 699 665 18.7% 9.6% 21.5% 49.7% -2.9 -16 5
Pirates 73 89 639 726 3.3% 1.8% 6.2% 11.3% 1.5 -29 -26
Cubs 68 94 652 757 1.8% 1.6% 2.8% 6.2% -3.2 -4 7
Astros 66 96 607 747 1.2% 0.3% 1.2% 2.7% 1.9 3 -8
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Giants 85 77 672 649 29.6% 5.3% 14.9% 49.8% 0.6 0 2
Dodgers 83 79 649 674 22.7% 5.3% 11.1% 39.1% 8.1 8 -17
Diamondbacks 83 79 687 677 22.8% 4.3% 14.1% 41.2% -1.3 -6 3
Rockies 81 81 751 744 20.1% 4.9% 12.6% 37.6% -1.2 3 13
Padres 72 90 638 690 4.8% 1.4% 5.1% 11.3% -3.5 -9 2

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: 2012 revised projected wins minus 2012 pre-season projected wins
RS+/-: 2012 revised projected runs scored minus 2012 pre-season projected runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2012 revised projected runs allowed minus 2012 pre-season projected runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Good thing for Cliff Lee he signed with the young upstart Phillies instead of the old decrepit Yankees.  And remember how the Rangers and Angels looked to be neck and neck heading into the year?  Yeah.  The Dodgers seem to have snuck their way into the division race now, but other than that the division standings look pretty similar to how they did entering the season.

And here’s a chart that shows the changes in revised team wins projections for each team.

TM W+/-
Rangers 8.4
Dodgers 8.1
Cardinals 7.2
Nationals 3.8
Indians 3.6
Tigers 2.9
Braves 2.3
Astros 1.9
White Sox 1.6
Pirates 1.5
Brewers 1.2
Giants 0.6
Mets 0.2
Orioles 0.1
Blue Jays -0.5
Yankees -0.8
Rockies -1.2
Diamondbacks -1.3
Phillies -1.4
Mariners -1.5
Twins -1.6
Marlins -1.8
Rays -2.0
Reds -2.9
Cubs -3.2
Padres -3.5
Athletics -4.1
Royals -4.8
Angels -5.1
Red Sox -7.6

The Rangers have been destroying the competition and look like they’re probably the best team in baseball.  The Dodgers and Cardinals are the biggest positive surprises in the National League so far.  The Angels are the biggest disappointment in the AL.

But the Red Sox have to be the most pleasant surprise in baseball for me.

--Posted at 9:17 am by SG / 62 Comments | - (0)




Friday, April 20, 2012

A Tale of Two Log 5s

The Yankees have been a bit under their expected record to this point using Bill James’s log 5 expectations given pre-season projections for them and their respective opponents and adjusting for home/road advantage/disadvantage. 

The Red Sox have been more than a bit under their expected record using the same criteria.  Here’s how they compare.

TeamNYA  
DateOppxWaW
6-Apr@TAM0.530
7-Apr@TAM0.530
8-Apr@TAM0.530
9-Apr@BAL0.651
10-Apr@BAL0.651
11-Apr@BAL0.651
13-AprLAA0.521
14-AprLAA0.520
15-AprLAA0.521
16-AprMIN0.640
17-AprMIN0.641
18-AprMIN0.640
19-AprMIN0.641
  7.687.00

 

TeamBOS  
DateOppxWaW
5-Apr@DET0.530
7-Apr@DET0.530
8-Apr@DET0.530
9-Apr@TOR0.561
10-Apr@TOR0.560
11-Apr@TOR0.560
13-AprTAM0.511
14-AprTAM0.511
15-AprTAM0.511
16-AprTAM0.510
17-AprTEX0.500
18-AprTEX0.500
    
  6.334.00

xW: Expected wins using log 5 and these pre-season projections
aW: Actual wins

The Yankees actually project as slight favorites in this series at 1.56 - 1.44.  Here’s how the two teams’ would compare to their overall log 5 based on the various potential series outcomes.

Yankee sweep: Yankees aW: 10, xW: 9.23, Boston aW: 4, xW: 7.77
Yankees 2-1: Yankees aW: 9, xW: 9.23, Boston aW: 5, xw: 7.77
Boston 2-1: Yankees aW: 8, xW: 9.23, Boston aW: 6, xW: 7.77
Boston sweep: Yankees aW: 7, xW: 9.23, Boston aW: 7, xW: 7.77

So the Yankees really only need to win one of these games to remain closer to their relative expectations than Boston. 

I’d obviously like to see more than that.

--Posted at 8:24 am by SG / 15 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, April 8, 2012

April 2012 Log 5 Expectations for the Yankees

To determine how much I should panic after an 0-2 start, I put together a log 5 expectation chart for the Yankees in April.  Bil James developed the log 5 methodology to assign win probabilities for a baseball game, and it’s basically team 1’s winning percentage plus 0.5 minus team 2’s winning percentage.  For winning percentages I’m using the average of my 2012 projection blowout and I’m also incorporating a 0.04 home field advantage.

Date Game xW xL cxW cxL aW aL caW caL delta
4/6 Yankees @ Rays 0.48 0.52 0.48 0.52 0 1 0 1 -0.48
4/7 Yankees @ Rays 0.48 0.52 0.97 1.03 0 1 0 2 -0.97
4/8 Yankees @ Rays 0.48 0.52 1.45 1.55 0 2 -1.45
4/9 Yankees @ Orioles 0.60 0.40 2.05 1.95 0 2 -2.05
4/10 Yankees @ Orioles 0.60 0.40 2.65 2.35 0 2 -2.65
4/11 Yankees @ Orioles 0.60 0.40 3.26 2.74 0 2 -3.26
4/13 Angels @ Yankees 0.56 0.44 3.82 3.18 0 2 -3.82
4/14 Angels @ Yankees 0.56 0.44 4.38 3.62 0 2 -4.38
4/15 Angels @ Yankees 0.56 0.44 4.95 4.05 0 2 -4.95
4/16 Twins @ Yankees 0.67 0.33 5.62 4.38 0 2 -5.62
4/17 Twins @ Yankees 0.67 0.33 6.29 4.71 0 2 -6.29
4/18 Twins @ Yankees 0.67 0.33 6.96 5.04 0 2 -6.96
4/19 Twins @ Yankees 0.67 0.33 7.64 5.36 0 2 -7.64
4/20 Yankees @ Red Sox 0.48 0.52 8.12 5.88 0 2 -8.12
4/21 Yankees @ Red Sox 0.48 0.52 8.59 6.41 0 2 -8.59
4/22 Yankees @ Red Sox 0.48 0.52 9.07 6.93 0 2 -9.07
4/23 Yankees @ Rangers 0.47 0.53 9.54 7.46 0 2 -9.54
4/24 Yankees @ Rangers 0.47 0.53 10.01 7.99 0 2 -10.01
4/25 Yankees @ Rangers 0.47 0.53 10.48 8.52 0 2 -10.48
4/27 Tigers @ Yankees 0.59 0.41 11.07 8.93 0 2 -11.07
4/28 Tigers @ Yankees 0.59 0.41 11.66 9.34 0 2 -11.66
4/29 Tigers @ Yankees 0.59 0.41 12.25 9.75 0 2 -12.25
4/30 Orioles @ Yankees 0.68 0.32 12.93 10.07 0 2 -12.93

xW: Expected win probability for this game
xL:  Expected loss probability for this game
cxW: Cumulative expected win probabilities
cxL: Cumulative expected loss probabilities
aW: Actual wins
aL: Actual losses
caW: Cumulative actual wins
caL: Cumulative actual losses
delta: caW minus cxW.  Positive means better than expected

Obviously you can’t win partial games, so it’s better to look at the big picture here.  The delta basically shows where the Yankees are relative to where they should be. They’re now one game under their season-opening projection, and can get back within about one-half with a win today.

The Yankees would have to go about 13-10 this month if they want to be on pace to get to their average 94 win projection.

--Posted at 10:01 am by SG / 1 Comment | - (0)




Tuesday, April 3, 2012

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout - ZiPS Edition

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections are generally considered one of the best around.  Dan does a lot of work with his own projected standings and other things at ESPN.  You can see his AL and NL projections there if you’re an Insider.

Projecting the American League

Projecting the National League

Since I’m not an insider, I used Dan’s projectons to run my own standings.  As with PECOTA, these should be considered unofficial. 

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL East NYA 95 67 875 743 47.8% 22.6% 12.8% 83.2% 85 - 105
AL East TAM 93 69 807 687 28.3% 27.8% 15.1% 71.2% 83 - 103
AL East BOS 91 71 863 755 22.5% 24.9% 15.7% 63.1% 81 - 101
AL East TOR 80 82 818 821 1.4% 3.3% 4.6% 9.2% 70 - 90
AL East BAL 69 93 751 870 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 59 - 79
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL Central DET 84 78 812 776 47.4% 0.8% 9.2% 57.4% 74 - 94
AL Central CLE 83 79 792 768 37.2% 0.8% 7.0% 44.9% 73 - 93
AL Central KC 76 86 731 781 7.5% 0.0% 1.1% 8.6% 66 - 86
AL Central CHA 74 88 730 827 4.9% 0.0% 1.0% 5.8% 64 - 84
AL Central MIN 72 90 762 846 3.1% 0.1% 0.5% 3.7% 62 - 82
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL West LAA 92 70 772 670 53.6% 9.0% 15.0% 77.7% 82 - 102
AL West TEX 91 71 833 727 45.1% 10.2% 17.1% 72.3% 81 - 101
AL West SEA 74 88 705 768 1.2% 0.4% 0.8% 2.4% 64 - 84
AL West OAK 73 89 722 791 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.9% 63 - 83
AL WC1 94
AL WC2 91
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL East PHI 91 71 702 622 50.7% 15.5% 9.4% 75.6% 81 - 101
NL East ATL 88 74 712 665 26.9% 17.9% 10.0% 54.7% 78 - 98
NL East FLA 84 78 712 680 13.3% 11.6% 9.1% 33.9% 74 - 94
NL East WAS 82 80 654 646 8.7% 8.0% 7.5% 24.1% 72 - 92
NL East NYN 72 90 679 762 0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 1.7% 62 - 82
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL Central CIN 86 76 719 678 34.6% 9.0% 11.5% 55.1% 76 - 96
NL Central STL 86 76 719 673 31.7% 10.1% 10.5% 52.4% 76 - 96
NL Central MIL 86 76 709 655 30.3% 9.0% 12.1% 51.5% 76 - 96
NL Central PIT 75 87 685 736 3.1% 1.0% 2.0% 6.2% 65 - 85
NL Central CHN 70 92 657 766 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9% 60 - 80
NL Central HOU 63 99 602 759 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 53 - 73
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL West SF 86 76 689 652 42.5% 5.7% 10.2% 58.4% 76 - 96
NL West ARI 86 76 693 660 39.6% 6.6% 10.2% 56.4% 76 - 96
NL West COL 80 82 757 767 12.2% 3.1% 4.1% 19.4% 70 - 90
NL West SD 76 86 637 679 5.0% 1.5% 2.3% 8.8% 66 - 86
NL West LAN 72 90 624 697 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 1.5% 62 - 82
NL WC1 90
NL WC2 87

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
PS%: Total percentage team qualified for the postseason (DIV + WC1 + WC2)
W 1 Std: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 8:32 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)



The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout - Oliver Edition

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL East NYA 94 68 801 683 56.0% 22.7% 7.6% 86.4% 84 - 104
AL East BOS 90 72 798 719 26.6% 27.3% 12.6% 66.5% 80 - 100
AL East TAM 86 76 749 701 11.3% 18.2% 9.3% 38.7% 76 - 96
AL East TOR 83 79 751 733 6.1% 10.0% 9.8% 25.9% 73 - 93
AL East BAL 71 91 684 781 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% 61 - 81
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL Central DET 88 74 760 696 67.2% 1.5% 14.1% 82.7% 78 - 98
AL Central CHA 79 83 695 711 13.0% 2.4% 5.5% 20.9% 69 - 89
AL Central CLE 79 83 753 771 12.9% 1.9% 5.9% 20.7% 69 - 89
AL Central KC 76 86 705 754 4.7% 0.7% 2.4% 7.7% 66 - 86
AL Central MIN 73 89 716 793 2.2% 0.4% 1.4% 3.9% 63 - 83
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL West LAA 88 74 730 668 52.4% 5.7% 14.5% 72.5% 78 - 98
AL West TEX 87 75 762 706 42.3% 7.2% 12.2% 61.8% 77 - 97
AL West SEA 77 85 686 724 3.9% 1.2% 3.7% 8.7% 67 - 87
AL West OAK 74 88 707 767 1.5% 0.7% 1.3% 3.5% 64 - 84
AL WC1 91
AL WC2 88
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL East ATL 89 73 687 625 37.8% 17.0% 10.0% 64.8% 79 - 99
NL East MIA 87 75 677 627 28.3% 13.3% 9.9% 51.5% 77 - 97
NL East PHI 86 76 680 632 21.5% 14.6% 11.2% 47.3% 76 - 96
NL East WAS 84 78 667 646 12.3% 11.6% 9.3% 33.2% 74 - 94
NL East NYN 72 90 654 726 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 1.1% 62 - 82
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL Central CIN 91 71 695 615 63.2% 8.3% 10.4% 81.9% 81 - 101
NL Central STL 86 76 707 666 27.1% 12.3% 10.3% 49.7% 76 - 96
NL Central MIL 81 81 672 672 8.1% 5.8% 6.5% 20.3% 71 - 91
NL Central CHN 73 89 646 716 1.4% 0.3% 1.2% 3.0% 63 - 83
NL Central PIT 70 92 649 748 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 60 - 80
NL Central HOU 66 96 603 729 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 56 - 76
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL West COL 86 76 708 665 44.2% 5.7% 10.7% 60.6% 76 - 96
NL West ARI 83 79 665 649 24.3% 4.6% 8.3% 37.2% 73 - 93
NL West SF 83 79 654 640 25.9% 3.9% 8.0% 37.8% 73 - 93
NL West LAN 75 87 636 683 3.2% 1.5% 2.6% 7.2% 65 - 85
NL West SD 74 88 649 702 2.4% 0.5% 1.4% 4.3% 64 - 84
NL WC1 90
NL WC2 87

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
PS%: Total percentage team qualified for the postseason (DIV + WC1 + WC2)
W 1 Std: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 8:30 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)



The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout - Marcel Edition

Marcel was developed by Tangotiger of The Book fame.

Although it’s considered the most basic projection system, it is generally as good as any other system since added complexity really hasn’t shown to add all that much accuracy over Marcel, and the principles behind it are solid and should be the basis for any good forecasting system.  Marcel tends to regress more heavily towards the mean, so the standings here will be more compressed in the other systems.  Marcel does not factor in minor league performance or performances in other leagues, and does not adjust for park.  Any player who has not played in MLB will project as average.  In Marcel, Tsuyoshi Wada and Yu Darvish have the same projection for example, so keep that in mind as you peruse the standings. 

Here’s how it sees things looking in 2012.

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL East NYA 92 70 800 695 46.3% 21.2% 9.2% 76.7% 82 - 102
AL East BOS 89 73 801 727 26.7% 23.2% 11.1% 61.1% 79 - 99
AL East TAM 88 74 754 681 20.6% 20.9% 12.3% 53.8% 78 - 98
AL East TOR 84 78 753 733 6.5% 11.6% 8.3% 26.3% 74 - 94
AL East BAL 68 94 682 802 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 58 - 78
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL Central DET 84 78 756 723 41.0% 1.5% 9.9% 52.4% 74 - 94
AL Central CLE 83 79 755 738 33.7% 2.0% 8.4% 44.1% 73 - 93
AL Central CHA 79 83 697 714 13.1% 2.0% 5.1% 20.2% 69 - 89
AL Central KC 78 84 708 735 11.0% 1.2% 3.6% 15.7% 68 - 88
AL Central MIN 70 92 711 818 1.3% 0.2% 0.4% 1.8% 60 - 80
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL West LAA 87 75 725 671 44.6% 5.7% 13.0% 63.3% 77 - 97
AL West TEX 87 75 762 703 40.3% 7.1% 11.3% 58.6% 77 - 97
AL West OAK 80 82 710 715 10.9% 2.2% 5.4% 18.5% 70 - 90
AL West SEA 77 85 680 721 4.2% 1.0% 2.6% 7.8% 67 - 87
AL WC1 91
AL WC2 88
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL East PHI 90 72 729 651 47.0% 13.3% 9.9% 70.1% 80 - 100
NL East ATL 88 74 729 668 32.2% 17.5% 11.1% 60.8% 78 - 98
NL East WAS 85 77 710 681 15.6% 14.0% 8.9% 38.5% 75 - 95
NL East MIA 80 82 715 727 4.8% 4.9% 7.1% 16.8% 70 - 90
NL East NYN 74 88 698 759 0.6% 0.9% 1.6% 3.1% 64 - 84
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL Central CIN 89 73 734 664 54.2% 8.5% 9.8% 72.5% 79 - 99
NL Central STL 85 77 749 718 25.9% 9.2% 10.5% 45.6% 75 - 95
NL Central MIL 83 79 714 693 19.1% 9.5% 7.7% 36.3% 73 - 93
NL Central PIT 72 90 687 772 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 1.4% 62 - 82
NL Central CHN 71 91 675 773 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 61 - 81
NL Central HOU 66 96 638 771 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 56 - 76
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL West COL 86 76 746 696 40.9% 6.6% 11.1% 58.6% 76 - 96
NL West ARI 84 78 704 682 26.1% 6.4% 9.3% 41.8% 74 - 94
NL West SF 84 78 688 670 27.5% 6.5% 8.9% 42.9% 74 - 94
NL West LAN 76 86 669 714 3.8% 1.4% 2.0% 7.2% 66 - 86
NL West SD 74 88 679 737 1.7% 0.7% 1.4% 3.8% 64 - 84
NL WC1 90
NL WC2 87

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
PS%: Total percentage team qualified for the postseason (DIV + WC1 + WC2)
W 1 Std: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 8:15 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)



CAIRO 2012 v1.0 and Final Pre-season MLB Standings Projection

I’ve uploaded the final pre-season 2012 CAIRO projections and projected standings.  They can be downloaded here.

cairo_2012_v1.0.zip

Yeah, I know Opening Day was technically last week.  Sue me.

Here are the standings and of course, the pie charts.  I should be posting more projected standings from other systems later today, so I’ll save the disclaimers and explanations for after that’s all done.

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL East NYA 96 66 848 713 52.8% 19.6% 11.1% 83.5% 86 - 106
AL East BOS 91 71 857 751 23.7% 21.0% 16.1% 60.8% 81 - 101
AL East TAM 91 71 765 667 22.4% 25.7% 14.9% 63.0% 81 - 101
AL East TOR 79 83 771 793 0.8% 2.4% 3.1% 6.2% 69 - 89
AL East BAL 70 92 736 838 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 60 - 80
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL Central DET 87 75 803 741 55.2% 1.3% 10.3% 66.8% 77 - 97
AL Central CLE 84 78 759 721 36.4% 2.4% 9.3% 48.0% 74 - 94
AL Central CHA 74 88 699 806 3.0% 0.2% 0.8% 4.0% 64 - 84
AL Central KC 73 89 682 754 3.6% 0.2% 0.8% 4.6% 63 - 83
AL Central MIN 71 91 725 815 1.8% 0.0% 0.3% 2.1% 61 - 81
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL West TEX 93 69 809 685 54.2% 12.7% 17.3% 84.1% 83 - 103
AL West LAA 92 70 739 640 44.7% 14.3% 14.6% 73.6% 82 - 102
AL West OAK 74 88 685 753 0.5% 0.3% 0.9% 1.7% 64 - 84
AL West SEA 73 89 669 742 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 1.2% 63 - 83
AL WC1 93
AL WC2 90
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL East PHI 91 71 690 610 51.0% 15.1% 9.0% 75.0% 81 - 101
NL East ATL 86 76 705 664 20.5% 16.4% 10.2% 47.1% 76 - 96
NL East WAS 85 77 669 632 17.7% 12.8% 9.7% 40.1% 75 - 95
NL East FLA 83 79 710 694 10.3% 8.6% 7.0% 25.9% 73 - 93
NL East NYN 74 88 665 737 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 2.2% 64 - 84
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL Central STL 89 73 728 654 47.2% 11.1% 9.4% 67.7% 79 - 99
NL Central MIL 86 76 695 646 29.2% 11.6% 11.8% 52.6% 76 - 96
NL Central CIN 85 77 707 670 22.7% 10.8% 11.2% 44.8% 75 - 95
NL Central PIT 71 91 653 743 0.6% 0.3% 1.0% 1.9% 61 - 81
NL Central CHN 71 91 648 748 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 61 - 81
NL Central HOU 61 101 584 752 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 51 - 71
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL West SF 85 77 663 634 36.5% 5.2% 10.2% 51.9% 75 - 95
NL West ARI 84 78 692 674 33.9% 3.0% 9.2% 46.0% 74 - 94
NL West COL 82 80 755 750 21.2% 2.9% 6.6% 30.7% 72 - 92
NL West SD 76 86 635 674 4.1% 0.9% 1.6% 6.6% 66 - 86
NL West LAN 75 87 622 671 4.3% 0.3% 2.5% 7.1% 65 - 85
NL WC1 90
NL WC2 88

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
PS%: Total percentage team qualified for the postseason (DIV + WC1 + WC2)
W 1 Std: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 7:45 am by SG / 34 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, February 7, 2012

CAIRO 2012 v0.5 and More Somewhat Useless Projected Standings

I’ve uploaded the latest version of the 2012 MLB CAIRO projections. They can be downloaded here.

The only changes from version 0.4 were moving players who were signed/traded to their new teams.  I think this will probably be the last release until right before Opening Day unless I find any issues.

I figured since I’ve updated again I’d run another set of projected standings so here is what they look like.

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL East NYA 97 65 844 692 54.3% 22.5% 8.0% 84.8%
AL East TAM 92 70 772 660 23.2% 27.4% 14.1% 64.8%
AL East BOS 92 70 862 745 22.1% 27.0% 15.3% 64.4%
AL East TOR 78 84 758 795 0.4% 1.2% 2.6% 4.1%
AL East BAL 70 92 734 847 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL Central DET 88 74 814 741 60.7% 1.6% 12.7% 75.0%
AL Central CLE 84 78 763 729 32.1% 0.8% 9.5% 42.4%
AL Central CHA 74 88 705 805 3.5% 0.2% 1.0% 4.7%
AL Central KC 74 88 687 762 3.3% 0.0% 0.8% 4.1%
AL Central MIN 67 95 720 861 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL West TEX 92 70 812 695 51.2% 8.6% 17.0% 76.8%
AL West LAA 91 71 741 653 47.0% 9.9% 16.6% 73.5%
AL West OAK 76 86 685 735 0.7% 0.6% 1.7% 2.9%
AL West SEA 74 88 673 729 1.2% 0.2% 1.0% 2.4%
AL WC1 94
AL WC2 91
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL East PHI 92 70 701 605 60.8% 12.4% 9.1% 82.2%
NL East WAS 86 76 676 625 18.6% 18.2% 9.1% 45.8%
NL East ATL 85 77 700 676 13.2% 12.5% 11.0% 36.7%
NL East FLA 82 80 708 699 7.3% 8.0% 7.1% 22.3%
NL East NYN 75 87 670 733 0.3% 1.2% 1.8% 3.2%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL Central STL 90 72 737 654 47.8% 12.4% 10.3% 70.5%
NL Central CIN 87 75 715 665 27.3% 11.6% 12.1% 51.0%
NL Central MIL 86 76 696 645 24.6% 12.3% 11.7% 48.6%
NL Central CHN 71 91 650 745 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
NL Central PIT 68 94 649 764 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4%
NL Central HOU 60 102 584 773 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL West SF 85 77 663 630 38.1% 3.1% 8.4% 49.5%
NL West ARI 84 78 659 634 33.5% 3.6% 8.9% 46.1%
NL West COL 81 81 761 759 18.3% 3.0% 6.6% 27.9%
NL West SD 76 86 633 668 5.2% 0.8% 2.2% 8.2%
NL West LAN 75 87 621 669 4.9% 0.7% 1.8% 7.3%
NL WC1 90
NL WC2 88

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card

These look more realistic to me than the last set I ran with Marcel.  Probably a bit high on the Yankees, but since CAIRO was created to make the Yankees look better than they are that stands to reason.

I am a bit surprised that Washington now projects better than Atlanta, even if it’s just a one game edge.  The only other major differences from this and the Marcel version is St. Louis at the top of the NL Central and San Francisco and Arizona above Colorado, both of which make sense to me.

Anyway, it’s still early, this is still not that useful, etc.,

--Posted at 9:58 am by SG / 43 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, January 28, 2012

Still Too Early 2012 MLB Standings Projection

Instead of running these with CAIRO this time I used Marcel, mainly out of curiosity in seeing what an unbiased projection that was not created to make the Yankees look better than they are would say.

It says this.

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL East NYA 92 70 785 682 45.3% 20.3% 10.4% 76.0%
AL East BOS 90 72 830 750 27.9% 26.1% 10.8% 64.8%
AL East TAM 88 74 717 646 23.7% 21.2% 12.2% 57.1%
AL East TOR 81 81 723 727 3.0% 6.9% 6.8% 16.7%
AL East BAL 70 92 694 806 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL Central DET 84 78 747 708 43.0% 2.4% 10.1% 55.4%
AL Central CLE 83 79 722 708 30.6% 2.9% 7.8% 41.3%
AL Central CHA 79 83 686 703 15.2% 1.5% 4.2% 20.9%
AL Central KC 79 83 691 714 10.8% 1.9% 4.1% 16.9%
AL Central MIN 68 94 693 813 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL West LAA 87 75 719 663 43.7% 6.1% 11.4% 61.2%
AL West TEX 87 75 765 707 38.2% 6.9% 13.4% 58.6%
AL West OAK 82 80 682 674 14.9% 3.1% 7.4% 25.3%
AL West SEA 76 86 649 689 3.2% 0.7% 1.6% 5.5%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL East PHI 90 72 689 615 44.8% 16.5% 10.7% 72.0%
NL East ATL 89 73 668 608 38.2% 19.2% 9.9% 67.3%
NL East WAS 83 79 645 634 10.8% 10.3% 8.1% 29.2%
NL East FLA 80 82 682 690 5.7% 5.2% 5.4% 16.3%
NL East NYN 74 88 630 680 0.6% 1.5% 1.2% 3.2%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL Central CIN 89 73 719 647 60.4% 8.4% 10.9% 79.7%
NL Central STL 84 78 708 681 24.6% 10.7% 7.0% 42.2%
NL Central MIL 81 81 678 672 13.1% 6.7% 7.7% 27.5%
NL Central PIT 72 90 657 732 1.6% 0.2% 1.0% 2.8%
NL Central CHN 70 92 668 761 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 1.0%
NL Central HOU 66 96 617 749 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL West COL 85 77 749 711 32.1% 6.4% 10.9% 49.4%
NL West ARI 85 77 685 656 30.8% 7.3% 10.8% 48.9%
NL West SF 85 77 629 606 29.6% 5.4% 11.3% 46.3%
NL West LAN 76 86 618 659 4.1% 1.5% 2.7% 8.2%
NL West SD 75 87 608 653 3.4% 0.6% 2.5% 6.4%

Div: Percent of time team won division
WC 1: Percent of time team won first wild card
WC 2: Percent of time team won second wild card

We still don’t know if there will be a second wild card yet, so you can chop off that column and subtract that percentage from the team’s over playoff percentage. 

Because Marcel regresses more heavily than other projections and because it assumes every one who hasn’t played in MLB projects as league average, you see a tighter spread here than you’ll see in other projected standings.  The standard deviation for team wins in my last CAIRO projections was about 9.  In this version it’s 7.1.  That may be more realistic if you think about how little we really know about how good/bad players and teams are, even though what will actually happen in 2012 will show a much bigger spread more in line with other projected standings.

Here are the average win totals for the placings in each division and for the two wild cards.

Div Place Avg W
AL East 1 96
AL East 2 91
AL East 3 86
AL East 4 80
AL East 5 69
Div Avg W
AL Central 1 89
AL Central 2 83
AL Central 3 79
AL Central 4 75
AL Central 5 67
Div Avg W
AL West 1 92
AL West 2 86
AL West 3 81
AL West 4 74
AL WC 1 91
AL WC2 88
Div Avg W
NL East 1 94
NL East 2 88
NL East 3 83
NL East 4 78
NL East 5 72
Div Avg W
NL Central 1 92
NL Central 2 85
NL Central 3 80
NL Central 4 74
NL Central 5 69
NL Central 6 63
Div Avg W
NL West 1 91
NL West 2 85
NL West 3 81
NL West 4 77
NL West 5 71
NL WC1 89
NL WC2 87

What this shows is that on average a team needed 96 wins to win the AL East, etc.,.

Some obvious things to consider would be:

- the difference between Yu Darvish (and other imports) and a league average pitcher
- prospects who project better than league average
- players who switched to parks that will affect their projections since Marcel does not park-adjust

Despite all that, the ordinal rankings seem reasonable.  The only differences between this and CAIRO in that regard are that I have St. Louis ahead of Cincinnati and the Diamondbacks and Giants ahead of Colorado.

This is current through Francisco Cordero signing with Toronto, and assumes Prince Fielder at 1B and Miguel Cabrera playing a terrible version of 3B for Detroit in 70% of their games, and DHing in 25% of them. 

--Posted at 8:19 am by SG / 25 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Still Way Too Early and Mostly Useless 2012 Projected Standings

I was goofing around with the second wild card thing in my simulator and ran an updated set of still way too early and mostly useless projected standings.  I think I liked the last set better.

The same disclaimers from the last set apply here and you can read them by clicking the link in the previous paragraph, so I’m not going to repeat them.  In summary, ignore these if you don’t like them.

Div Team W L RS RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL East
1 BOS 93.7 68.3 872 733 43.8% 20.85% 12.82% 77.44%
2 NYA 93.0 69.0 859 742 38.9% 19.58% 13.74% 72.24%
3 TAM 88.9 73.1 733 651 17.0% 15.37% 13.38% 45.71%
4 TOR 77.9 84.1 770 798 0.4% 1.13% 3.31% 4.79%
5 BAL 64.8 97.2 717 885 0.0% 0.00% 0.06% 0.06%
AL Central
1 DET 88.9 73.1 785 702 63.2% 1.78% 14.80% 79.74%
2 CLE 85.0 77.0 749 706 30.6% 3.40% 9.19% 43.14%
3 CHA 75.7 86.3 707 789 4.2% 0.15% 1.82% 6.12%
4 KC 73.5 88.5 682 755 1.8% 0.05% 0.64% 2.44%
5 MIN 67.4 94.6 715 850 0.4% 0.00% 0.06% 0.46%
AL West
1 TEX 94.1 67.9 817 680 52.9% 16.77% 14.32% 83.94%
2 LAA 93.3 68.7 746 637 46.2% 18.67% 12.96% 77.83%
3 SEA 76.5 85.5 658 697 0.9% 1.30% 2.57% 4.72%
4 OAK 74.0 88.0 650 713 0.1% 0.95% 0.93% 1.98%
WC1 93.4
WC2 90.4
Div Team W L RS RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL East
1 PHI 92.7 69.3 702 603 64.4% 11.32% 8.43% 84.11%
2 ATL 86.8 75.2 715 671 20.7% 19.83% 10.72% 51.24%
3 WAS 82.4 79.6 674 655 7.3% 9.83% 7.96% 25.07%
4 FLA 81.6 80.4 715 703 6.5% 7.28% 7.39% 21.16%
5 NYN 76.2 85.8 669 717 1.3% 1.54% 2.25% 5.07%
NL Central Team
1 STL 90.3 71.7 743 650 53.1% 11.63% 9.61% 74.36%
2 CIN 86.4 75.6 714 665 25.1% 12.02% 12.56% 49.71%
3 MIL 85.8 76.2 696 660 21.3% 12.96% 8.46% 42.75%
4 CHN 70.5 91.5 652 755 0.4% 0.50% 0.16% 1.01%
5 PIT 69.2 92.9 655 760 0.1% 0.08% 0.11% 0.24%
6 HOU 57.9 104.1 572 779 0.0% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%
NL West Team
1 SF 85.5 76.5 667 627 40.1% 4.83% 11.28% 56.16%
2 ARI 85.4 76.6 668 635 39.6% 4.48% 11.24% 55.36%
3 COL 79.3 82.7 767 784 10.4% 1.62% 4.36% 16.34%
4 SD 76.8 85.2 641 667 5.3% 0.94% 3.87% 10.10%
5 LAN 76.5 85.5 626 666 4.7% 1.13% 2.21% 8.01%
WC1 90.3
WC2 87.7

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card

Nothing would make me happier than Houston winning the second wild card and going all the way.  Maybe then the second wild card thing will die before completely ruining baseball.

--Posted at 10:05 am by SG / 35 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, December 13, 2011

CAIRO 2012 v0.3 and Some Extremely Early and Completely Useless 2012 Projected Standings

I’m releasing CAIRO 2012 v 0.3 today which mainly fixes a problem with a handful of pitchers like Alexi Ogando and Ross Ohlendorf and moves players to new teams where applicable.  I figure it’d be a good time to run some projected standings even though they are too early to be of any real value.

DISCLAIMER: This is very limited in telling us much about how 2012 will play out for a large number of reasons.

1) There are still a lot of roster changes coming.  This may give us some sense of how the offseason has impacted teams to this point and it also shows us how things might look if nothing changed from now until April.  Which won’t happen.

2) It’s too early to construct meaningful rosters for a lot of teams, so these projections will favor the teams that have essentially completed their 2012 rosters.

3) In addition to that, projection systems are inherently limited.  They are designed to estimate a player’s true talent based on what they’ve done so far and also by factoring in things like age and how similar players have performed in the past.  They will generally be in the ballpark for the general population of MLB players, but they can miss significantly on individual players which can obviously affect certain teams more heavily than others.

Anyway, using the depth charts from the wonderful MLB Depth Charts and includng playing time from players on the 40 man roster who don’t necessarily figure to be part of the the opening day 25 man rosters to account for organizational depth and playing out next season 100,000 times, here’s how CAIRO v0.3 sees things as of December 13, 2011.  These were run with Aramis Ramirez as a Brewer, but I didn’t remove any of the non-tendered players from yesterday from their rosters.

Date 12/13/2011
Iterations 100000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Yankees 94 68 862 740 59.0% 16.8% 75.9%
Red Sox 91 71 868 763 31.1% 26.1% 57.2%
Rays 85 77 717 654 9.5% 11.8% 21.4%
Blue Jays 75 87 773 817 0.3% 0.6% 0.9%
Orioles 68 94 741 853 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Tigers 89 73 780 703 54.3% 4.7% 59.0%
Indians 87 75 751 696 40.8% 5.9% 46.6%
White Sox 77 85 723 795 3.3% 1.5% 4.8%
Royals 73 89 684 760 1.6% 0.2% 1.8%
Twins 66 96 698 829 0.0% - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Rangers 93 69 812 697 58.0% 13.7% 71.6%
Angels 90 72 720 640 39.5% 16.6% 56.1%
Mariners 77 85 653 668 2.3% 2.0% 4.2%
Athletics 71 91 636 686 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Phillies 92 70 681 598 60.6% 10.5% 71.1%
Braves 87 75 711 662 24.9% 13.8% 38.7%
Marlins 81 81 716 695 8.2% 4.4% 12.6%
Nationals 80 82 665 668 4.9% 3.2% 8.1%
Mets 76 86 669 710 1.4% 1.6% 3.0%
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Brewers 92 70 700 646 52.5% 14.3% 66.7%
Cardinals 90 72 708 648 36.8% 19.3% 56.2%
Reds 84 78 724 704 10.1% 10.8% 20.9%
Cubs 74 88 649 727 0.3% 1.1% 1.4%
Pirates 70 92 656 758 0.4% - 0.4%
Astros 60 102 569 759 0.0% - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Giants 88 74 656 613 46.3% 6.4% 52.7%
Diamondbacks 86 76 647 613 31.2% 6.4% 37.6%
Padres 81 81 620 613 11.3% 4.6% 15.9%
Dodgers 79 83 624 644 7.9% 2.9% 10.8%
Rockies 76 86 726 776 3.4% 0.6% 4.0%

The most shocking thing here is the Astros projecting to win 62 games IMO.  I also am amused by the fact that the Marlins don’t really project any better than the Nationals despite all their largesse this offseason.

Also, be aware that I haven’t accounted for the stupid new second wild card thing yet, since I am not certain that it will be implemented for this upcoming season, and rremember that this is more for fun than utility and take it in the appropriate spirit.

--Posted at 11:22 am by SG / 44 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Can The Yankees Get Swept By Tampa Bay and Still Win the AL East?

Here are the shedules for the rest of the season for the teams that are still relevant in the AL wild card/East race.

Date Yankees w Red Sox w Rays w Rangers w Angels w
9/20/2011 Rays 0 Orioles 0 @Yankees 0 @Athletics 0 @Blue Jays 0
9/21/2011 Rays 0 Orioles 0 @Yankees 0 @Athletics 0 @Blue Jays 0
9/21/2011 Rays 0 @Yankees 0
9/22/2011 Rays 0 @Yankees 0 @Athletics 0 @Blue Jays 0
9/23/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays 0 Mariners 0 Athletics 0
9/24/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays 0 Mariners 0 Athletics 0
9/25/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays 0 Mariners 0 Athletics 0
9/26/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 0 Yankees 0 @Angels 0 Rangers 0
9/27/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 0 Yankees 0 @Angels 0 Rangers 0
9/28/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 0 Yankees 0 @Angels 0 Rangers 0
current final current final current final current final current final
W 92 92 88 88 85 85 88 88 83 83
L 60 70 66 74 67 77 65 74 70 79


The good news is that the Yankees’ magic number over LAAA of AA is one.  The next Yankee win or Angels loss makes it a three way dance, as Paul Heyman would call it.  I am going to guarantee that the Angels lose one of their last nine games, so let’s play around with the three way dance scenarios.

Here’s where we are now.

Date Yankees w Red Sox w Rays w
9/20/2011 Rays 0 Orioles 0 @Yankees 0
9/21/2011 Rays 0 Orioles 0 @Yankees 0
9/21/2011 Rays 0 @Yankees 0
9/22/2011 Rays 0 @Yankees 0
9/23/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays
9/24/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays
9/25/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays
9/26/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 0 Yankees 0
9/27/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 0 Yankees 0
9/28/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 0 Yankees 0
current final current final current final
W 92 92 88 88 85 85
L 60 70 66 74 67 77

Here’s where we are assuming Boston and Tampa Bay win all their non-Yankee games.

Date Yankees w Red Sox w Rays w
9/20/2011 Rays 0 Orioles 1 @Yankees 0
9/21/2011 Rays 0 Orioles 1 @Yankees 0
9/21/2011 Rays 0 @Yankees 0
9/22/2011 Rays 0 @Yankees 0
9/23/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays 1
9/24/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays 1
9/25/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays 1
9/26/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 1 Yankees 0
9/27/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 1 Yankees 0
9/28/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 1 Yankees 0
current final current final current final
W 92 92 88 93 85 88
L 60 70 66 69 67 74

A 1 in the ‘w’ column to the right of each team’s name is a win.  I guess that means you can put it on the right side.  So what this table shows is Boston winning all five of their games against the Orioles, which means 93 wins before considering whatever they may do against the Yankees and Tampa Bay sweeping Toronto.

The Rays have to win at least five games against the Yankees if they want to get to the 93 wins Boston would have if/when they win all their games against Baltimore.  If that were to happen, we’d be looking at this:

Date Yankees w Red Sox w Rays w
9/20/2011 Rays 1 Orioles 1 @Yankees 0
9/21/2011 Rays 0 Orioles 1 @Yankees 1
9/21/2011 Rays 0 @Yankees 1
9/22/2011 Rays 1 @Yankees 0
9/23/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays 1
9/24/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays 1
9/25/2011 Red Sox 0 @Yankees 0 Blue Jays 1
9/26/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 1 Yankees 1
9/27/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 1 Yankees 1
9/28/2011 @Rays 0 @Orioles 1 Yankees 1
current final current final current final
W 92 94 88 93 85 93
L 60 68 66 69 67 69

In this scenario, the Yankees would have to sweep Boston to beat them out for the division and to give Tampa Bay the wild card.  Any loss by Boston vs. the Orioles means the Yankees can take 2-3 against them and still go 2-5 vs. Tampa Bay.

Of course, it’s all moot if Tampa Bay doesn’t sweep the Blue Jays.

If the Yankees win two of their next four games vs. Tampa Bay and Boston wins their two games vs. Baltimore, the Yankees can clinch a tie for the AL East by winning one of the three games vs. Boston.  If Boston loses one of their next two against Baltimore the Yankees can clinch the East against them at home.  That would be fun.

So I’m hoping for a 2-2 split with Tampa Bay over the next four games with Boston losing one of the next two to the O’s which gives the Yankees three shots to clinch against Boston.

--Posted at 10:36 am by SG / 24 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, September 18, 2011

Yankees.com: Whatever

Freddy Garcia allowed three runs over 4 2/3 innings Sunday, while Yankees bats were held in check by Brandon Morrow in the series finale in Toronto

On September 6, the Yankees beat Baltimore 5-3.  It was their sixth straight win and put them at 87-53, and 2.5 games up on Boston in the AL East.  Actually, here are the complete AL standings on September 6.

Tm W L GB
NYY 87 53
BOS 85 56 2.5
TEX 81 62 7.5
DET 80 62 8.0
TBR 77 64 10.5
LAA 77 65 11.0
CHW 71 69 16.0
CLE 70 69 16.5
TOR 70 72 18.0
OAK 64 78 24.0
KCR 60 83 28.5
SEA 59 82 28.5
MIN 58 84 30.0
BAL 55 85 32.0

The Yankees lost their last home game to Baltimore in 11 innings before embarking on a 10 game, four city road trip that is finally over.  The Yankees lost a makeup game in Baltimore before flying out to Anaheim to drop the first two games of a three game series there.  They then righted the ship briefly by winning the finale in Los Angeles and then taking the first two in Seattle.  They dropped the finale in Seattle and the first one in Toronto and then split the final two games.  So they went 4-6 on the trip, and 4-7 in their last 11 games.

We can play the expected record using log5 vs. actual record to see just how badly the Yankees underperformed over the last 11 games.

Date Game xW xL aW aL
9/7/2011 vs Orioles 0.7 0.3 0 1
9/8/2011 @ Orioles 0.6 0.4 0 1
9/9/2011 @ Angels 0.5 0.5 0 1
9/10/2011 @ Angels 0.5 0.5 0 1
9/11/2011 @ Angels 0.5 0.5 1 0
9/12/2011 @ Mariners 0.6 0.4 1 0
9/13/2011 @ Mariners 0.6 0.4 1 0
9/14/2011 @ Mariners 0.6 0.4 0 1
9/16/2011 @ Blue Jays 0.6 0.4 0 1
9/17/2011 @ Blue Jays 0.6 0.4 1 0
9/18/2011 @ Blue Jays 0.6 0.4 0 1
6.3 4.7 4 7

xW/L: Expected wins/losses
aW/L: Actual wins/losses.

So they lost about two more games than they probably should have.  If they’d won 2 of the 4 walk-off losses they’d have basically been where they should have been.

Here’s how the standings look now.

Tm W L GB Gain
NYY 91 60
DET 89 64 3.0 5.0
BOS 87 65 4.5 -2.0
TEX 88 65 4.0 3.5
TBR 83 69 8.5 2.0
LAA 83 69 8.5 2.5
TOR 77 75 14.5 3.5
CLE 75 75 15.5 1.0
CHW 74 78 17.5 -1.5
OAK 69 84 23.0 1.0
KCR 67 87 25.5 3.0
SEA 63 89 28.5 0.0
BAL 62 89 29.0 3.0
MIN 59 92 32.0 -2.0

Gain is just the number of games each team gained on the Yankees since September 7. 

The saving grace for this debacle of a stretch is that Boston actually played worse, which allowed the Yankees to pick up 2.5 games on them for the AL East.  The Yankees were also able to pick up two important games on Minnesota.

Detroit made the biggest move up, which is an issue for possible home field advantage.  The Tigers have a much easier schedule than the Yankees over the rest of the season, with only two road games (against Kansas City) and 7 home games, 4 against Baltimore and 3 against Cleveland.  Texas also picked up ground in the race for home field advantage, but they have a more difficult schedule than Detroit with six road games against Oakland and California and three home games against Seattle.

The Yankees are probably still over 99% for making the postseason, and about 95% for winning the division.  At the beginning of the season I’m sure any of us would have been happy to be in this position right now.  But you can’t help but feel disappointed that the Yankees didn’t take advantage of a golden opportunity to put things away over the past week and get themselves into the best position possible heading into the postseason.

--Posted at 7:30 pm by SG / 37 Comments | - (0)




Monday, September 12, 2011

Down The Stretch They Come

Instead of just throwing a bunch of percentages up here like I’d normally do right about now, I wanted to take a more granular look at the remaining schedule for the AL postseason contenders.

The Yankees have won 88 games.  The teams in the AL who can exceed that this point are Boston, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Texas, LAAAAAA of AA, Cleveland, the White Sox and Toronto.  If all those teams won the rest of their games, here’s where they’d end the year.

Team W L GR Max
NYY 88 57 17 105
BOS 85 61 16 101
DET 84 62 16 100
TB 81 64 17 98
TEX 83 64 15 98
LAA 80 66 16 96
CLE 72 72 18 90
CWS 73 72 17 90
TOR 74 73 15 89


Because most of those teams play at least a few games against each other, they can’t all win all their remaining games.  Cleveland has three games left with the Rangers and four games left with the White Sox, for example.  So if they win all their games, Texas can only win at most 93, and the White Sox can only win 86, etc.,  I feel comfortable in saying that it’s not likely either Cleveland or the White Sox will win more games than the Yankees over the rest of the year.  For the purposes of assessing the Yankees’ postseason chances, Detroit’s a non-factor in this scenario, because they can’t contend for the wild card AND win more games than the Yankees.

Toronto plays nothing but teams on that list for the rest of the year, with two vs. Boston, three vs. the Yankees, four vs. the Angels, three vs. the Rays, and three vs. the White Sox.  I’m going to go out on a limb and say they’ll lose at least two of those.  So I’m going to only look at the other teams.

Team NYY BOS DET TB TEX LAA
NYY 3 6
BOS 3 4
DET
TB 6 4
TEX 3
LAA 3


Texas and California have three games left against each other.

Tampa Bay has six games left vs. the Yankees and four games vs. Boston.

The Yankees have those six games vs. the Rays and three games vs. Boston.

Detroit gets to beat up on cream puffs for the rest of the year, and are right now the team with the highest playoff probability in the American League.  So I’m going to say they’re in.

That means you’ve got five teams fighting for three playoff spots. 

The first number to think about is that 96 from Anaheim.  If they get there, that means Texas can only get to 95. So 96 wins is effectively the clinching number to eliminate the AL west runner-up from the wild card.  That obviously goes down each time Texas and LAA lose.

If Tampa Bay can get to 98, that means Boston can only get to 97 and the Yankees can only get to 99.  So getting to that 97 from Boston is the bar for the Yankees, although it would only be a tie.  Again, that obviously goes down as the Rays/Red Sox lose.

That means the Yankees’ magic number for tying for a postseason spot is nine, and for taking one outright is 10.  In the event that the Yankees and Red Sox tied for the last spot, the season series between them wouldn’t matter, and there’d be a one game play-in.

Which the Sox would win handily.

--Posted at 9:39 am by SG / 72 Comments | - (0)




Friday, September 9, 2011

What If?

What if the Yankees hadn’t handed the Orioles two wins on Wednesday and Thursday?

W L Div WC PL
101 61 88.7% 11.4% 100.0%


W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

Instead, we’re looking at

W L Div WC PL
99 63 75.5% 24.4% 99.9%


What if the Yankees get swept by Anaheim?

W L Div WC PL
97 65 57.1% 42.3% 99.4%
--Posted at 2:21 pm by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)




Monday, September 5, 2011

Monte Carlo Standings and Postseason Odds Through September 4, 2011

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Yankees 99 63 870 657 63.0% 36.7% 99.7%
Red Sox 98 64 860 694 36.9% 62.3% 99.3%
Rays 87 75 705 630 0.1% 0.9% 1.0%
Blue Jays 79 83 745 749 - - -
Orioles 64 98 694 841 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Tigers 89 73 740 724 94.2% - 94.2%
White Sox 82 80 672 681 4.0% - 4.0%
Indians 80 82 688 720 1.9% - 1.9%
Twins 71 91 662 791 - - -
Royals 67 95 706 782 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Rangers 91 71 815 696 92.1% 0.0% 92.1%
Angels 86 76 666 650 7.9% 0.0% 7.9%
Athletics 75 87 654 668 - - -
Mariners 69 93 574 678 - - -
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Phillies 103 59 736 555 98.0% 2.0% 100.0%
Braves 94 68 678 605 2.0% 95.4% 97.4%
Mets 80 82 723 733 - 0.0% 0.0%
Nationals 75 87 632 688 - - -
Marlins 73 89 647 717 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Brewers 95 67 723 659 98.7% 0.2% 98.9%
Cardinals 86 76 761 714 1.3% 2.1% 3.3%
Reds 81 81 751 711 - - -
Pirates 74 88 633 706 - - -
Cubs 70 92 664 768 - - -
Astros 56 106 610 787 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Diamondbacks 89 73 713 689 83.2% 0.1% 83.3%
Giants 85 77 575 585 15.9% 0.3% 16.2%
Dodgers 80 82 641 630 0.8% 0.0% 0.8%
Rockies 78 84 744 751 0.1% - 0.1%
Padres 71 91 614 637 - - -

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

Not looking like too much suspense aside from seeding at this point.

--Posted at 9:14 am by SG / 10 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, July 14, 2011

Where are we at?

I thought it’d be a good time to look at how the Yankees have performed relative to their schedule so far with the second half kicking off tonight. 

Date Game xW xL aW aL aW-xW cxW cxL caW caL caW-cxW
3/31/2011 vs Tigers .64 .36 1 0 .36 0.6 0.4 1.0 0.0 0.4
4/2/2011 vs Tigers .64 .36 1 0 .36 1.3 0.7 2.0 0.0 0.7
4/3/2011 vs Tigers .64 .36 0 1 -.64 1.9 1.1 2.0 1.0 0.1
4/4/2011 vs Twins .67 .33 1 0 .33 2.6 1.4 3.0 1.0 0.4
4/5/2011 vs Twins .67 .33 0 1 -.67 3.3 1.7 3.0 2.0 -0.3
4/6/2011 vs Twins 0 0 .00 3.3 1.7 3.0 2.0 -0.3
4/7/2011 vs Twins .67 .33 1 0 .33 3.9 2.1 4.0 2.0 0.1
4/8/2011 @ Red Sox .46 .54 0 1 -.46 4.4 2.6 4.0 3.0 -0.4
4/9/2011 @ Red Sox .46 .54 1 0 .54 4.8 3.2 5.0 3.0 0.2
4/10/2011 @ Red Sox .46 .54 0 1 -.46 5.3 3.7 5.0 4.0 -0.3
4/12/2011 vs Orioles 0 0 .00 5.3 3.7 5.0 4.0 -0.3
4/13/2011 vs Orioles .71 .29 1 0 .29 6.0 4.0 6.0 4.0 0.0
4/14/2011 vs Orioles .71 .29 1 0 .29 6.7 4.3 7.0 4.0 0.3
4/15/2011 vs Rangers .59 .41 0 1 -.59 7.3 4.7 7.0 5.0 -0.3
4/16/2011 vs Rangers .59 .41 1 0 .41 7.9 5.1 8.0 5.0 0.1
4/17/2011 vs Rangers .59 .41 1 0 .41 8.5 5.5 9.0 5.0 0.5
4/19/2011 @ Blue Jays .58 .42 0 1 -.58 9.1 5.9 9.0 6.0 -0.1
4/20/2011 @ Blue Jays .58 .42 1 0 .42 9.7 6.3 10.0 6.0 0.3
4/22/2011 @ Orioles 0 0 .00 9.7 6.3 10.0 6.0 0.3
4/23/2011 @ Orioles .63 .37 1 0 .37 10.3 6.7 11.0 6.0 0.7
4/24/2011 @ Orioles .63 .37 1 0 .37 10.9 7.1 12.0 6.0 1.1
4/25/2011 vs White Sox .65 .35 0 1 -.65 11.6 7.4 12.0 7.0 0.4
4/26/2011 vs White Sox .65 .35 0 1 -.65 12.2 7.8 12.0 8.0 -0.2
4/27/2011 vs White Sox .65 .35 1 0 .35 12.9 8.1 13.0 8.0 0.1
4/28/2011 vs White Sox .65 .35 1 0 .35 13.5 8.5 14.0 8.0 0.5
4/29/2011 vs Blue Jays .66 .34 0 1 -.66 14.2 8.8 14.0 9.0 -0.2
4/30/2011 vs Blue Jays .66 .34 1 0 .34 14.8 9.2 15.0 9.0 0.2
5/1/2011 vs Blue Jays .66 .34 1 0 .34 15.5 9.5 16.0 9.0 0.5
5/2/2011 @ Tigers .56 .44 1 0 .44 16.1 9.9 17.0 9.0 0.9
5/3/2011 @ Tigers .56 .44 0 1 -.56 16.6 10.4 17.0 10.0 0.4
5/4/2011 @ Tigers .56 .44 0 1 -.56 17.2 10.8 17.0 11.0 -0.2
5/5/2011 @ Tigers .56 .44 0 1 -.56 17.7 11.3 17.0 12.0 -0.7
5/6/2011 @ Rangers .51 .49 1 0 .49 18.2 11.8 18.0 12.0 -0.2
5/7/2011 @ Rangers .51 .49 0 1 -.51 18.8 12.2 18.0 13.0 -0.8
5/8/2011 @ Rangers .51 .49 1 0 .49 19.3 12.7 19.0 13.0 -0.3
5/10/2011 vs Royals .71 .29 1 0 .29 20.0 13.0 20.0 13.0 0.0
5/11/2011 vs Royals .71 .29 0 1 -.71 20.7 13.3 20.0 14.0 -0.7
5/12/2011 vs Royals .71 .29 0 1 -.71 21.4 13.6 20.0 15.0 -1.4
5/13/2011 vs Red Sox .54 .46 0 1 -.54 21.9 14.1 20.0 16.0 -1.9
5/14/2011 vs Red Sox .54 .46 0 1 -.54 22.5 14.5 20.0 17.0 -2.5
5/15/2011 vs Red Sox .54 .46 0 1 -.54 23.0 15.0 20.0 18.0 -3.0
5/16/2011 @ Rays .52 .48 0 1 -.52 23.5 15.5 20.0 19.0 -3.5
5/17/2011 @ Rays .52 .48 1 0 .48 24.1 15.9 21.0 19.0 -3.1
5/18/2011 @ Orioles .63 .37 1 0 .37 24.7 16.3 22.0 19.0 -2.7
5/19/2011 @ Orioles .63 .37 1 0 .37 25.3 16.7 23.0 19.0 -2.3
5/20/2011 vs Mets .64 .36 0 1 -.64 26.0 17.0 23.0 20.0 -3.0
5/21/2011 vs Mets .64 .36 1 0 .36 26.6 17.4 24.0 20.0 -2.6
5/22/2011 vs Mets .64 .36 1 0 .36 27.2 17.8 25.0 20.0 -2.2
5/23/2011 vs Blue Jays .66 .34 0 1 -.66 27.9 18.1 25.0 21.0 -2.9
5/24/2011 vs Blue Jays .66 .34 1 0 .34 28.6 18.4 26.0 21.0 -2.6
5/25/2011 vs Blue Jays .66 .34 1 0 .34 29.2 18.8 27.0 21.0 -2.2
5/27/2011 @ Mariners .60 .40 0 1 -.60 29.8 19.2 27.0 22.0 -2.8
5/28/2011 @ Mariners .60 .40 0 1 -.60 30.4 19.6 27.0 23.0 -3.4
5/29/2011 @ Mariners .60 .40 1 0 .40 31.0 20.0 28.0 23.0 -3.0
5/30/2011 @ Athletics .57 .43 1 0 .43 31.6 20.4 29.0 23.0 -2.6
5/31/2011 @ Athletics .57 .43 1 0 .43 32.2 20.8 30.0 23.0 -2.2
Date Game xW xL aW aL aW-xW cxW cxL caW caL caW-cxW
6/1/2011 @ Athletics .57 .43 1 0 .43 32.7 21.3 31.0 23.0 -1.7
6/3/2011 @ Angels .56 .44 0 1 -.56 33.3 21.7 31.0 24.0 -2.3
6/4/2011 @ Angels .56 .44 1 0 .44 33.8 22.2 32.0 24.0 -1.8
6/5/2011 @ Angels .56 .44 1 0 .44 34.4 22.6 33.0 24.0 -1.4
6/7/2011 vs Red Sox .54 .46 0 1 -.54 34.9 23.1 33.0 25.0 -1.9
6/8/2011 vs Red Sox .54 .46 0 1 -.54 35.5 23.5 33.0 26.0 -2.5
6/9/2011 vs Red Sox .54 .46 0 1 -.54 36.0 24.0 33.0 27.0 -3.0
6/10/2011 vs Indians .66 .34 1 0 .34 36.7 24.3 34.0 27.0 -2.7
6/11/2011 vs Indians .66 .34 1 0 .34 37.3 24.7 35.0 27.0 -2.3
6/12/2011 vs Indians .66 .34 1 0 .34 38.0 25.0 36.0 27.0 -2.0
6/13/2011 vs Indians .66 .34 0 1 -.66 38.6 25.4 36.0 28.0 -2.6
6/14/2011 vs Rangers .59 .41 1 0 .41 39.2 25.8 37.0 28.0 -2.2
6/15/2011 vs Rangers .59 .41 1 0 .41 39.8 26.2 38.0 28.0 -1.8
6/16/2011 vs Rangers .59 .41 1 0 .41 40.4 26.6 39.0 28.0 -1.4
6/17/2011 @ Cubs .61 .39 0 1 -.61 41.0 27.0 39.0 29.0 -2.0
6/18/2011 @ Cubs .61 .39 1 0 .39 41.7 27.3 40.0 29.0 -1.7
6/19/2011 @ Cubs .61 .39 1 0 .39 42.3 27.7 41.0 29.0 -1.3
6/20/2011 @ Reds .53 .47 1 0 .47 42.8 28.2 42.0 29.0 -0.8
6/21/2011 @ Reds .53 .47 1 0 .47 43.3 28.7 43.0 29.0 -0.3
6/22/2011 @ Reds .53 .47 0 1 -.53 43.9 29.1 43.0 30.0 -0.9
6/24/2011 vs Rockies .64 .36 0 1 -.64 44.5 29.5 43.0 31.0 -1.5
6/25/2011 vs Rockies .64 .36 1 0 .36 45.2 29.8 44.0 31.0 -1.2
6/26/2011 vs Rockies .64 .36 1 0 .36 45.8 30.2 45.0 31.0 -0.8
6/28/2011 vs Brewers .64 .36 1 0 .36 46.4 30.6 46.0 31.0 -0.4
6/29/2011 vs Brewers .64 .36 1 0 .36 47.1 30.9 47.0 31.0 -0.1
6/30/2011 vs Brewers .64 .36 1 0 .36 47.7 31.3 48.0 31.0 0.3
7/1/2011 @ Mets .56 .44 1 0 .44 48.3 31.7 49.0 31.0 0.7
7/2/2011 @ Mets .56 .44 1 0 .44 48.8 32.2 50.0 31.0 1.2
7/3/2011 @ Mets .56 .44 0 1 -.56 49.4 32.6 50.0 32.0 0.6
7/4/2011 @ Indians .58 .42 0 1 -.58 50.0 33.0 50.0 33.0 0.0
7/5/2011 @ Indians .58 .42 1 0 .42 50.6 33.4 51.0 33.0 0.4
7/6/2011 @ Indians .58 .42 0 1 -.58 51.1 33.9 51.0 34.0 -0.1
7/7/2011 vs Rays .60 .40 0 1 -.60 51.7 34.3 51.0 35.0 -0.7
7/8/2011 vs Rays 0 0 .00 51.7 34.3 51.0 35.0 -0.7
7/9/2011 vs Rays .60 .40 1 0 .40 52.3 34.7 52.0 35.0 -0.3
7/10/2011 vs Rays .60 .40 1 0 .40 52.9 35.1 53.0 35.0 0.1

xW: Expected win probability
xL: Expected loss probability
aW: Actual win
aL: Actual loss
aW-xW: Actual win minus expected win.  Positive is good, negative is bad
cxW: Cumulative xW
cxL: Cumulative expected losses
caW: Cumulative actual wins
caL: Cumulative actual losses
caW-cxW: Cumulative actual wins minus cumulative expected wins

I’m using Bill James’s log5 method to computed expected wins and losses.  Estimated team strengths are based on both pre-season projections and YTD performance.

The Yankees’ lowest point of the first half came on May 16, as a series-opening loss to the Rays after getting swept at home against Boston put them at 3.5 games behind expectations and 20-18.  They’ve made up all that ground and bit more, peaking on July 2 with a win against the Mets that put them 1.2 games ahead of pace.  Unfortunately, a blown Mariano Rivera save in the series finale against the Mets ended their winning streak at seven, and then Joe Girardi foolishness cost at least one of two games in Cleveland.  They were able to recover by taking two of three games against Tampa Bay at home to close out the break, and put them at where they basically ought to be.

There are four first half games that need to be made up in the second half(highlighed in gray), which is going to be a problem.  Thankfully, three of the four games are at home and the one road game is against Baltimore.

--Posted at 8:09 am by SG / 27 Comments | - (0)




Friday, June 17, 2011

AL East Interleague Strength of Schedule: June 17-July 3, 2011

Out of curiosity, I did an estimate of the strength of Boston, Tampa Bay and the Yankees interleague schedule over the next two weeks.  Here are the schedules with an estimate of the opponent’s winning percentage.  This is based 40% on 2011 Pythagenpat and 60% on pre-season projections adjusted for roster changes, with home field advantage included.

Date Yankees Opp w% Red Sox Opp w% Rays Opp w%
6/17/2011 @Cubs 0.48 vs Brewers 0.53 vs Marlins 0.46
6/18/2011 @Cubs 0.48 vs Brewers 0.53 vs Marlins 0.46
6/19/2011 @Cubs 0.48 vs Brewers 0.53 vs Marlins 0.46
6/20/2011 @Reds 0.55 vs Padres 0.46 @Brewers 0.57
6/21/2011 @Reds 0.55 vs Padres 0.46 @Brewers 0.57
6/22/2011 @Reds 0.55 vs Padres 0.46 @Brewers 0.57
6/24/2011 vs Rockies 0.49 @Pirates 0.48 @Astros 0.43
6/25/2011 vs Rockies 0.49 @Pirates 0.48 @Astros 0.43
6/26/2011 vs Rockies 0.49 @Pirates 0.48 @Astros 0.43
6/28/2011 vs Brewers 0.53 @Phillies 0.57 vs Reds 0.51
6/29/2011 vs Brewers 0.53 @Phillies 0.57 vs Reds 0.51
6/30/2011 vs Brewers 0.53 @Phillies 0.57 vs Reds 0.51
7/1/2011 @Mets 0.52 @Astros 0.43 vs Cardinals 0.53
7/2/2011 @Mets 0.52 @Astros 0.43 vs Cardinals 0.53
7/3/2011 @Mets 0.52 @Astros 0.43 vs Cardinals 0.53
7.68 7.39 7.50

xW: Expected wins using log5.

Not much of a difference, although it’s somewhat irritating that both Boston and the Rays get to play the Astros while the Yankees don’t.  Then again, I suppose playing the Cubs is close enough.

I’m not sure if I’ve ever mentioned how I feel about interleague play.  Rather than go through a lengthy screed about why, I’ll just present the following.

Team W L W%
LAA 51 24 .680
BOS 49 26 .653
DET 49 26 .653
CHW 45 30 .600
MIN 45 30 .600
TEX 45 30 .600
NYY 43 32 .573
SEA 41 34 .547
KC 40 35 .533
TB 40 35 .533
BAL 37 38 .493
OAK 33 42 .440
TOR 33 42 .440
CLE 28 47 .373
Total 579 471 .551

That’s the record of every AL team vs. the National League since 2007.  Now obviously the bulk of that is due to how good or bad each team is/was, but there’s also a pretty fair discrepancy between the strength of the various teams’ interleague schedules in any given season.

So a series of glorified exhibition games has a significant impact on the postseason race every year.

Anyway, I’ll just hope the Yankees don’t lose any pitchers in the act of doing something they are not qualified to do.  At the very least maybe with enough pitchers bunting Joe Girardi will not need to further fuel his addiction to bunting with actual hitters.

--Posted at 10:44 am by SG / 21 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, June 2, 2011

A Brief Foray into Run Differentials and Component Stats

At this point in the season, the Yankees have the second best winning percentage in the AL.

Team a%
CLE .623
NYY .574
BOS .536
TEX .536
DET .527
TBR .527
SEA .509
LAA .500
TOR .500
OAK .474
CHW .466
BAL .463
KCR .455
MIN .315

Over a full season at the actual winning percentage the Yankees would be about a 93 win team, with Cleveland at 101.

Now of course over 1/3 of a season actual winning percentage can be misleading since teams might be winning or losing more games than their actual performance merits.  So you can look at something like Pythagenpat to get a better sense of how well a team has played so far and what it might mean going forward.

Team p%
NYY .629
CLE .582
TEX .563
TBR .543
TOR .542
BOS .540
LAA .506
OAK .496
DET .486
CHW .480
SEA .478
KCR .462
BAL .422
MIN .322


If you do that, the Yankees look more like a 102 win team, which would be eight wins better than Cleveland and 11 wins better than Boston.

Although Pythagenpat does a pretty good job of estimating a team’s level of play, their actual runs scored and runs allowed might be skewed due to better or worse than expected performances in high leverage situations that are not necessarily repeatable going forward.

You can use linear weights batting runs to account for that.  What’s nice about doing that is you can put offense and pitching/defense on the same scale if you use all the same components.

Team b%
NYY .599
TEX .568
BOS .562
CLE .559
TOR .533
TBR .526
OAK .526
LAA .524
DET .504
CHW .479
SEA .469
KCR .435
BAL .423
MIN .343

This method also shows that the Yankees have played better than any other team in the AL, and would have them at around 97 wins, five wins ahead of Cleveland and six games ahead of Boston.

We do need to be cognizant that how a team has played so far only tells us so much about how good they are now and how good they’ll be going forward.  Regression towards the mean, injuries/roster changes and a whole host of other things are going to have an impact on how a team does moving forward.

But at least as of right now, the Yankees have probably been the best team in the league and the difference isn’t trivial.

All this is moot when Rafael Soriano returns to blow games though.

--Posted at 6:20 pm by SG / 26 Comments | - (0)



What A Difference Five Days Can Make

On May 28 in this post I referenced some standings projections I’d done at that point, which had the Red Sox projected to end the year around 93-69, with the Yankees at 91-71 and the Rays at 88-74. Here’s how that compares to a re-run as of last night’s games.

Team5/28 xW6/1 xWD xW
Yankees91.293.22.0
Blue Jays76.678.51.9
Rays87.586.6-0.9
Orioles74.272.9-1.3
Red Sox93.190.1-3.0

xW: Expected wins

Thank you White Sox.

Enjoy it while you can, since the Angels are going to sweep the Yankees this weekend and effectively return things to how they were on 5/28.

--Posted at 7:19 am by SG / 50 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, May 28, 2011

TGS NY: Joe’s handling of ‘pen not so mighty

David Robertson got out of a bed in Tuscaloosa, Alabama at 4:30 a.m. Eastern time Friday morning. Nearly 20 hours later, he was on the mound at Safeco Field, doing his job to perfection, pitching an overpowering eighth inning against the Mariners.

Trouble was, the game had already been lost two innings earlier.

But that’s what happens when a manager sticks to a game plan even if the game no longer fits his plan.

Robertson, back from a mission of mercy to his tornado-ravaged hometown, was no doubt the most tired man in the Yankee bullpen. He was also the only one able to do his job. Unfortunately, by the time he was asked to do it, it was too late. At the time, the Yankees trailed 4-3, and that’s the way it would stay.

I didn’t get to watch the game, so I’d be interested in everyone else’s take, but here’s how I see the situation.  With Burnett at 97 pitches with five walks through five innings, I don’t think anyone would quibble with the fact that he was pulled prior to the sixth inning.  So the question then is who should have started the bottom of the sixth.  With Adam Kennedy (LHB), Miguel Olivo (RHB) and Carlos Peguero (LHB) due up, I can understand the thought process behind starting the sixth inning with Boone Logan.  You need to get four innings out of your bullpen, so unless you want one of Robertson, Joba Chamberlain or Mariano Rivera to pitch two innings you needed to get some outs from someone other than those three.

Logan allowed a leadoff single to Kennedy.  So now with a RHB up and with the likelihood of a pinch-hitter for Peguero to re-gain the platoon advantage, going to the bullpen for a RHP made sense as well.  Unfortunately, Girardi opted for Luis Ayala instead of Robertson and that’s when the game was lost.

Ayala probably would have pitched an inning at some point in the game, so the real problem is that he and Logan didn’t do their jobs.  However, once Kennedy reached Girardi should have used a better pitcher due to the leverage of the situation, and not the pitcher who’s ordinal spot in the bullpen hierarchy was now due.  If you intended to pitch Robertson or Chamberlain if necessary anyway, they’d have been the better choices in that spot.  If they extended themselves to get out of the inning, you could then go to Ayala to begin the seventh with whichever of Robertson or Chamberlain wasn’t used as a safety net to get the game to Rivera.

Again, the real issue is that Logan and Ayala didn’t execute.  But it’s fair to say that Girardi’s deployment of the bullpen after Logan is also culpable. 

The Yankees really don’t have much margin for error on this road trip if you look at the schedule for the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays over the rest of this West Coast swing.

Date Yankee xW xL Red Sox xW xL Rays xW xL
5/28/2011 @ Mariners .58 .42 @ Tigers .53 .47 vs Indians .58 .42
5/29/2011 @ Mariners .58 .42 @ Tigers .53 .47 vs Indians .58 .42
5/30/2011 @ Athletics .51 .49 vs White Sox .62 .38 vs Rangers .54 .46
5/31/2011 @ Athletics .51 .49 vs White Sox .62 .38 vs Rangers .54 .46
6/1/2011 @ Athletics .51 .49 vs White Sox .62 .38 vs Rangers .54 .46
6/2/2011 @Mariners .54 .46
6/3/2011 @ Angels .54 .46 vs Athletics .59 .41 @Mariners .54 .46
6/4/2011 @ Angels .54 .46 vs Athletics .59 .41 @Mariners .54 .46
6/5/2011 @ Angels .54 .46 vs Athletics .59 .41 @Mariners .54 .46
4.32 3.68 4.72 3.28 4.95 4.05

At this point Boston and the Rays have around a one game advantage over the Yankees over the next nine days, at which point the Yankees will return home to face Boston, Cleveland and Texas on a nine game home stand.  It’s not inconceivable that the Yankees could be trailing Boston and/or Tampa Bay by three or four games by then.  And that’s not exactly the kind of home stand that would allow the Yankees to catch up if they falter on the rest of this trip. 

Right now I’ve got Boston projected to finish around 93-69, the Yankees around 91-71 and Tampa Bay around 88-74.  If that’s how things still look by the end of this road trip I’d happily take it.

--Posted at 8:34 am by SG / 21 Comments | - (0)




Friday, May 13, 2011

The Implications of this Weekend’s Series with Boston

The Red Sox have been playing better since their rough start but are still trying to fight their way to .500.  The Yankees have stumbled a bit over their last ten games, losing 6 and are now in second place in the AL East behind the Tampa Bay Rays, although even in the loss column.

So with a three game set beginning tonight in the Bronx between the Yankees and Boston, here’s a look at how the different ways this series may affect the AL East going forward.

First of all, here’s how my Monte Carlo simulator says the AL East would play out as of today.

Team W L Div WC PL
Red Sox 85.8 76.2 14.6% 17.6% 32.1%
Yankees 92.1 69.9 50.8% 23.7% 74.5%
Rays 89.8 72.2 34.3% 27.6% 61.9%
Blue Jays 74.1 87.9 0.2% 0.4% 0.6%
Orioles 74.5 87.5 0.2% 1.2% 1.4%


W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

When Boston sweeps this series, here’s how things will look.

Team W L Div WC PL
Red Sox 87.5 74.5 23.2% 22.1% 45.3%
Yankees 90.3 71.7 38.2% 25.3% 63.4%
Rays 90.0 72.0 38.0% 23.5% 61.5%
Blue Jays 73.6 88.4 0.0% 0.7% 0.8%
Orioles 74.5 87.5 0.5% 1.4% 1.9%

 

There’s a miniscule chance the Yankees take one of the three games, and if that were to happen here’s how things would shake out.

Team W L Div WC PL
Red Sox 86.4 75.6 15.8% 20.9% 36.6%
Yankees 91.5 70.5 46.9% 24.5% 71.5%
Rays 90.0 72.0 37.1% 23.8% 60.9%
Blue Jays 73.8 88.2 0.1% 0.9% 1.0%
Orioles 74.1 87.9 0.1% 0.9% 0.9%

 

I suppose there’s an infinitesimal chance the Yankees take two of three games in which case here’s how things would project going forward.

Team W L Div WC PL
Red Sox 85.7 76.3 13.8% 18.6% 32.4%
Yankees 91.9 70.1 50.4% 23.6% 73.9%
Rays 90.2 71.8 35.4% 27.5% 62.9%
Blue Jays 74.3 87.7 0.3% 0.7% 1.0%
Orioles 74.0 88.0 0.2% 0.6% 0.7%


In the completely theoretical and impossible scenario where the Yankees sweep, this would be the net result.

Team W L Div WC PL
Red Sox 84.6 77.4 10.6% 15.6% 26.1%
Yankees 93.5 68.5 58.3% 24.5% 82.8%
Rays 89.9 72.1 30.5% 28.8% 59.3%
Blue Jays 73.6 88.4 0.2% 1.1% 1.2%
Orioles 74.3 87.7 0.5% 1.3% 1.8%

One of my foibles is superstition.  Because of that,  I see no way a series against Boston that kicks off on a Friday the 13th is going to go well.  Hopefully I’m wrong.

--Posted at 11:16 am by SG / 29 Comments | - (0)




Monday, April 18, 2011

April 2011 Log5 Update

Since Andrew asked about the Yankees’ schedule through the end of March in the previous entry, I figured I’d do a post about it. 

When I last looked at the Yankees’ schedule for April using Bill James’s log5 methodology, the Yankees were 2-1 and on target to meet an expected record of something in the neighborhood of 16-11.  Here’s an updated look at their log5 vs. actuals through yesterday.

Date Game xW xL aW aL aW-xW cxW cxL caW caL caW-cxW
3/31/2011 vs Tigers .59 .41 1 0 .41 0.6 0.4 1.0 0.0 0.4
4/2/2011 vs Tigers .59 .41 1 0 .41 1.2 0.8 2.0 0.0 0.8
4/3/2011 vs Tigers .59 .41 0 1 -.59 1.8 1.2 2.0 1.0 0.2
4/4/2011 vs Twins .60 .40 1 0 .40 2.4 1.6 3.0 1.0 0.6
4/5/2011 vs Twins .60 .40 0 1 -.60 3.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 0.0
4/6/2011 vs Twins .00 .00 0 0 .00 3.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 0.0
4/7/2011 vs Twins .60 .40 1 1 .40 3.6 2.4 4.0 3.0 0.4
4/8/2011 @ Red Sox .46 .54 0 1 -.46 4.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 0.0
4/9/2011 @ Red Sox .46 .54 1 0 .54 4.5 3.5 5.0 4.0 0.5
4/10/2011 @ Red Sox .46 .54 0 0 -.46 4.9 4.1 5.0 4.0 0.1
4/12/2011 vs Orioles .00 .00 0 0 .00 4.9 4.1 5.0 4.0 0.1
4/13/2011 vs Orioles .63 .37 1 0 .37 5.6 4.4 6.0 4.0 0.4
4/14/2011 vs Orioles .63 .37 1 0 .37 6.2 4.8 7.0 4.0 0.8
4/15/2011 vs Rangers .55 .45 0 1 -.55 6.7 5.3 7.0 5.0 0.3
4/16/2011 vs Rangers .55 .45 1 0 .45 7.3 5.7 8.0 5.0 0.7
4/17/2011 vs Rangers .55 .45 1 0 .45 7.8 6.2 9.0 5.0 1.2
4/19/2011 @ Blue Jays .56 .44 8.4 6.6 9.0 5.0
4/20/2011 @ Blue Jays .56 .44 9.0 7.0 9.0 5.0
4/22/2011 @ Orioles .55 .45 9.5 7.5 9.0 5.0
4/23/2011 @ Orioles .55 .45 10.1 7.9 9.0 5.0
4/24/2011 @ Orioles .55 .45 10.6 8.4 9.0 5.0
4/25/2011 vs White Sox .60 .40 11.2 8.8 9.0 5.0
4/26/2011 vs White Sox .60 .40 11.8 9.2 9.0 5.0
4/27/2011 vs White Sox .60 .40 12.4 9.6 9.0 5.0
4/28/2011 vs White Sox .60 .40 13.0 10.0 9.0 5.0
4/29/2011 vs Blue Jays .64 .36 13.7 10.3 9.0 5.0
4/30/2011 vs Blue Jays .64 .36 14.3 10.7 9.0 5.0

 

xW: Expected win probability
xL: Expected loss probability
aW: Actual win
aL: Actual loss
aW-xW: Actual win minus expected win.  Positive is good, negative is bad
cxW: Cumulative xW
cxL: Cumulative expected losses
caW: Cumulative actual wins
caL: Cumulative actual losses
caW-cxW: Cumulative actual wins minus cumulative expected wins

They’ve lost two games to rainouts (4/6 vs. the Twins and 4/12 vs. the Orioles).  Accounting for that, they should be about 8-6 right now.  At 9-5 they’re a win ahead of expectations.  Log5 says they probably should go something like 6.5 - 4.5 over the rest of the month.  That’d have them at around 16-9 or 15-10 heading into May, and would have them on about a 93 win pace.

--Posted at 1:26 pm by SG / 43 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, April 12, 2011

How Have Teams’ Projections Changed Since Opening Day?

Even though it’s still early, there have been enough games played that some teams’ fortunes have changed by a non-negligible amount.  Here’s a quick comparison of all the teams in MLB and their revised projected win total compared to their average projected win total before the season started.

Team preW proW diffW
Rangers 88.0 94.0 6.0
Indians 74.3 79.3 5.0
Rockies 83.1 86.6 3.5
Pirates 70.2 73.4 3.2
Phillies 90.6 93.6 3.0
Reds 85.5 88.5 3.0
Orioles 78.6 81.0 2.4
Royals 68.4 70.1 1.7
White Sox 82.8 84.1 1.2
Diamondbacks 73.0 74.0 1.0
Marlins 81.9 82.5 0.6
Cubs 79.8 80.3 0.5
Cardinals 83.1 83.5 0.4
Dodgers 83.6 84.0 0.4
Nationals 72.3 72.0 -0.3
Angels 77.9 77.5 -0.4
Braves 87.3 86.8 -0.5
Blue Jays 73.9 73.4 -0.5
Brewers 83.3 82.7 -0.6
Yankees 92.4 91.6 -0.8
Giants 88.0 87.0 -1.0
Padres 79.0 78.0 -1.0
Athletics 84.6 83.6 -1.0
Twins 84.4 82.4 -2.0
Mets 79.5 76.6 -2.9
Tigers 84.6 81.5 -3.1
Astros 65.9 62.7 -3.2
Rays 86.1 82.0 -4.1
Mariners 73.6 69.3 -4.3
Red Sox 94.4 88.1 -6.3


preW: Pre-season projected win total
proW: Revised projected win total (Actual YTD record plus going forward projected wins)
diffW: Difference between proW and preW (proW - preW).  A positive value means a team now projects better, a negative value means they project worse.

I’m just amazed that the Astros may be worse than projected, and would love to hear from the ESPN guy who picked them to win their division.

--Posted at 10:36 am by SG / 23 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, April 7, 2011

The Implications of This Weekend’s Series with Boston

You may or may not have heard, but the best team in baseball history has gotten off to a rough start at 0-6.  It’s important to understand what that means in the big picture.  It’s too small of a sample size to meaningfully change our estimate of how good they are.  However, those games do count, and they do need to be factored into whatever we forecast Boston to do going forward.

If Boston was a 94-95 win team over 162 games at the start of the year, they’re probably still a 94-95 win team.  However, they only have 156 games left to play.  At the same winning percentage, they’re more like a 91 win team now.  Here’s a quick look at the average projections for the AL East at the start of the season according to the aggregate from the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout.

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Red Sox 94.4 67.6 817 687 42.1% 17.8% 59.8%
Yankees 92.4 69.6 812 707 32.8% 18.2% 51.0%
Rays 86.1 75.9 762 704 16.0% 13.4% 29.4%
Orioles 78.6 83.4 748 777 6.0% 6.5% 12.5%
Blue Jays 73.9 88.1 686 751 3.1% 3.2% 6.3%

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

It’s certainly possible that some of these projections were wrong from the start, but we don’t have enough information to know that yet.

Re-running that exercise taking into account what’s actually happened to this point gives us these revised results.

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Yankees 92.1 69.9 812 707 40.2% 16.4% 56.6%
Red Sox 91.1 70.9 817 687 36.5% 19.3% 55.8%
Rays 81.8 80.2 762 704 12.9% 9.5% 22.4%
Orioles 77.8 84.2 748 777 6.3% 6.9% 13.2%
Blue Jays 73.5 88.5 686 751 4.2% 3.5% 7.6%

So if everything played out as projected going forward (it won’t), the Yankees are now slight favorites in the AL East.  That was easy enough.

Using that as our new baseline, here are how those would look depending on the various potential results of the Yankees’ three game series in Fenway this weekend.

Boston Sweeps

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Red Sox 92.4 69.6 817 687 41.3% 18.2% 59.5%
Yankees 90.1 71.9 812 707 34.1% 16.9% 51.1%
Rays 83.0 79.0 762 704 14.0% 10.8% 24.8%
Orioles 78.3 83.7 748 777 7.8% 6.9% 14.7%
Blue Jays 73.0 89.1 686 751 2.8% 3.5% 6.3%

This is basically how things looked in the preseason, with Boston about two games better than the Yankees.

Boston wins 2 of 3

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Red Sox 91.4 70.6 817 687 37.3% 17.3% 54.6%
Yankees 91.3 70.7 812 707 35.9% 18.0% 53.9%
Rays 82.4 79.6 762 704 15.7% 11.5% 27.1%
Orioles 78.3 83.7 748 777 7.8% 7.8% 15.6%
Blue Jays 73.4 88.6 686 751 3.4% 3.3% 6.7%

For all intents and purposes that makes things a dead heat.

Yankees win 2 of 3

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Yankees 92.0 70.0 812 707 40.6% 18.6% 59.1%
Red Sox 90.6 71.4 817 687 35.9% 18.1% 53.9%
Rays 81.9 80.1 762 704 13.0% 9.4% 22.4%
Orioles 78.6 83.4 748 777 8.0% 7.7% 15.7%
Blue Jays 72.8 89.2 686 751 2.6% 3.7% 6.3%

While not my ideal scenario, I would approve of this outcome.

Yankees Sweep

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Yankees 93.9 68.1 812 707 47.2% 17.0% 64.2%
Red Sox 89.3 72.7 817 687 29.6% 16.8% 46.4%
Rays 82.3 79.7 762 704 13.4% 10.7% 24.1%
Orioles 77.7 84.3 748 777 6.5% 6.5% 13.0%
Blue Jays 73.1 88.9 686 751 3.3% 3.6% 6.9%

This is my preferred result.

These odds can swing pretty wildly after just a few games, so don’t take them too seriously.  This is particularly true in baseball where divisional rivals play each other so frequently.

Now obviously it’s really early in the season and we have no idea what will actually happen, but can you imagine the hysteria if the Yankees take all three games? 

Looking at the pitching matchups, the Yankees are probably underdogs in the first two games.

Friday, April 8
Phil “88 mph” Hughes vs. John “World Series Hero” Lackey

Saturday, April 9
Ivan Nova vs. Clay Buchholz

The good news is they should probably be slight favorites in the finale

Sunday, April 10
CC “Future Red Sock” Sabathia vs. Josh “Guardian of playing the game right” Beckett

So the most likely scenario is that the Red Sox take two of three, and really that’s fine with me.  I just don’t want to see the Yankees get swept.

--Posted at 6:00 pm by SG / 74 Comments | - (0)



You Know, Suzyn…

--Posted at 6:03 am by SG / 10 Comments | - (0)




Monday, April 4, 2011

2011 March/April Expectations

I was looking at the Yankees’ early season schedule and wanted to see what a reasonable expectation is for their performance over the next month.  So using the 2011 CAIRO projected team W/L records and Bill James’s log 5 expected win method, here’s how things look.

Date Game xW xL aW aL aW-xW cxW cxL caW caL caW-cxW
3/31/2011 vs Tigers .61 .39 1 0 .39 0.6 0.4 1.0 0.0 0.4
4/2/2011 vs Tigers .61 .39 1 0 .39 1.2 0.8 2.0 0.0 0.8
4/3/2011 vs Tigers .61 .39 0 1 -.61 1.8 1.2 2.0 1.0 0.2
4/4/2011 vs Twins .61 .39 2.4 1.6
4/5/2011 vs Twins .61 .39 3.0 2.0
4/6/2011 vs Twins .61 .39 3.6 2.4
4/7/2011 vs Twins .61 .39 4.2 2.8
4/8/2011 @ Red Sox .45 .55 4.7 3.3
4/9/2011 @ Red Sox .45 .55 5.1 3.9
4/10/2011 @ Red Sox .45 .55 5.6 4.4
4/12/2011 vs Orioles .64 .36 6.2 4.8
4/13/2011 vs Orioles .64 .36 6.9 5.1
4/14/2011 vs Orioles .64 .36 7.5 5.5
4/15/2011 vs Rangers .56 .44 8.1 5.9
4/16/2011 vs Rangers .56 .44 8.6 6.4
4/17/2011 vs Rangers .56 .44 9.2 6.8
4/19/2011 @ Blue Jays .57 .43 9.8 7.2
4/20/2011 @ Blue Jays .57 .43 10.3 7.7
4/22/2011 @ Orioles .56 .44 10.9 8.1
4/23/2011 @ Orioles .56 .44 11.5 8.5
4/24/2011 @ Orioles .56 .44 12.0 9.0
4/25/2011 vs White Sox .61 .39 12.6 9.4
4/26/2011 vs White Sox .61 .39 13.2 9.8
4/27/2011 vs White Sox .61 .39 13.8 10.2
4/28/2011 vs White Sox .61 .39 14.4 10.6
4/29/2011 vs Blue Jays .65 .35 15.1 10.9
4/30/2011 vs Blue Jays .65 .35 15.7 11.3


xW: Expected win probability
xL: Expected loss probability
aW: Actual win
aL: Actual loss
aW-xW: Actual win minus expected win.  Positive is good, negative is bad
cxW: Cumulative xW
cxL: Cumulative expected losses
caW: Cumulative actual wins
caL: Cumulative actual losses
caW-cxW: Cumulative actual wins minus cumulative expected wins

The key thing here is the home/road split.  The Yankees play 19 of their first 27 games at home, which is a big advantage.  Of course, that then means that at some point in the year they’re going to play a whole bunch of games on the road, which is a disadvantage.  The Yankees play 47 of their first 81 games at home(58%), which means the second half of the season has the potential to be rough.  So, if they want to leave April on a pace that would match their season-long expectations, they really need to go 16-11 or so.  Well, actually 14-10 since they took two of three from Detroit which puts them about 0.2 wins ahead of these expectations.

Since I know someone will ask, Boston has to play 15 of their first 27 games on the road.  In an eerie coincidence they have the exact same log5 expected record.  That’s because their games are against a somewhat weaker group of opponents.  If you sum the projected winning percentages of each team’s opponents on a game by game basis, the Yankees collective opponents have a winning percentage of about .508 and the Red Sox have an opponent winning percentage of .502.  It’s a difference of about a game over a month.  Since the Red Sox got swept in Texas, they’re currently about 1.5 games off their expectations and need to go something like 16-8 through the end of April to catch up.

If the aggregate results of the 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout were accurate, the Red Sox were projected as being about two games better than the Yankees.  Since the Yankees are now 0.2 wins ahead of where they projected to be and Boston’s 1.5 games behind where they’re projected to be, the two teams are essentially on equal footing now.  So it’ll be a dogfight for the wild card behind the surging Baltimore Orioles.

--Posted at 9:41 am by SG / 8 Comments | - (0)




Monday, March 28, 2011

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - American League Edition

Opening Day is just days away, so it’s time to present my annual Diamond Mind Projection blowout.  The idea behind this is to take several projection systems and run the 2011 season multiple times through Diamond Mind Baseball, which I consider to be the most statistically accurate baseball simulator available.

I’ve done a version of this since 2005.  If you want to see how previous runs have gone, here are the links:

2005
2006
2007
2008 Pt 1
2008 Pt 2
2009 AL
2009 NL
2010 AL
2010 NL

As you can see if you look at the prior runs, the results can be hit and miss, but that’s certainly understandable. 

Before I present the projected standings, it’s disclaimer time.

1) Projection systems are inherently limited in their accuracy, particularly for pitchers. We can get a rough idea of how most players will perform by looking at their past histories and how similar players have performed, and factoring in aging and regression, but abilities/talent can change in ways that can’t be forecasted.

2) Playing time distribution in these simulations will not match actual 2011 playing time. I used the rosters and depth charts available at the absolutely awesome MLB Depth Charts as my guide to set these up as realistically as possible, but it’s a possible source of error. Rosters were set up to have 35-40 or so active players per team, and to get a reasonable amount of playing time from the bench and extra pitchers, to more closely model reality. Basically, no players are set to play more than 90% of the time, starting catchers are restricted to at most about 75% of the games, and I’ve made sure teams get a non-trivial amount of starts from their 6-8 starters. The healthier a team is in 2011, the more likely they will be to exceed these projections.

3) We cannot predict injuries and/or roster changes. These simulations do try to adjust projected playing time based on past health issues, so someone like Brandon Webb or Erik Bedard is not expected to make 30 starts. I’ve also included random injuries which may lead to some of the outlying results you see, but there’s no way to account for all the fluctuations that will happen with rosters this season.

4) These are NOT my predictions. These are projections based on running a computer simulation hundreds of thousands of times with projection data that is inherently limited. If your favorite team doesn’t project well, don’t blame me, blame the computers and spreadsheets that projected them. I guess you can blame me for the CAIRO results if you want, otherwise you can take heart in the 2005 White Sox projecting to win 79 games, the 2006 Tigers projecting to win 80, or the 2010 Giants projecting to go 81-81.  These are not meant to tell you how the season is going to play out.  I prefer to think of them more as a starting point for discussion, with a range of something like 10 wins in either direction based on how things actually end up playing out.  You can look at them and argue about why you think some teams will be better or worse.

5) Since this is all automated, I don’t break ties. I simply award all ties a share of either the division title or wild card when it happens which is why you may see some funny decimal places in the standings that follow.

6) While the Diamond Mind engine is pretty good at giving us some variance in player and team performances over multiple simulations, it’s not quite good enough to model reality. Diamond Mind’s standard deviation for team wins is generally in the six to seven win range, but given the possible variations in playing time and in player performance, a better standard deviation is probably closer to the 10 to 13 win range. So I’ve taken the results from each set of projections (which I ran 1,000 times) and then run them through a Monte Carlo simulator 100,000 times. It won’t change the average win totals much, but it will give us a slightly higher standard deviation on team wins which will give us slightly different division and wild card percentages which should be more realistic.

7) These are the averages of hundreds of thousands of simulated seasons, so the results will tend to regress towards the mean. The final standings will not look like this, because they only play the season once. The idea behind is not necessarily to tell us how the final standings will look. Think of it more as a starting point for discussion. You can look at these and think about why you think teams will be better or worse.

OK, so now that the disclaimers are out of the way, onto the projected standings. I am showing W-L to one decimal place to deal with displayed rounding issues and so I don’t get people asking me why the wins and losses don’t add up to exactly 2430, not to imply that these results are that precise.

There’s too much crap to fit it all into one post, so I’ve created a separate post for each projection system I will use this post to show the results of the aggregate for the American League. You can follow the links below to look at the National League’s aggregate results and the individual projection systems’ results.

This year, I’m using five different projection systems.  You can click on each of the links below to get some more information about each system and to see how their projected standings look.

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - National League Edition

Bill James
CAIRO
Marcel
Oliver
PECOTA

In the past I included CHONE and ZiPS.  Unfortunately, CHONE is not available this season and the ZiPS disk came out too late for me to use it.

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 94.4 67.6 817 687 42.1% 17.8% 59.8% 84-104 788-846 661-714 5.4 -1 -57
Yankees 92.4 69.6 812 707 32.8% 18.2% 51.0% 82-102 783-840 680-734 -2.6 -47 14
Rays 86.1 75.9 762 704 16.0% 13.4% 29.4% 76-96 734-789 678-731 -9.9 -40 55
Orioles 78.6 83.4 748 777 6.0% 6.5% 12.5% 69-89 720-775 749-805 12.6 135 -8
Blue Jays 73.9 88.1 686 751 3.1% 3.2% 6.3% 64-84 659-712 724-779 -11.1 -69 23
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Tigers 84.6 77.4 723 693 31.2% 6.4% 37.7% 75-95 696-750 667-719 3.6 -28 -50
Twins 84.4 77.6 767 733 30.7% 6.6% 37.3% 74-94 739-794 706-760 -9.6 -14 62
White Sox 82.8 79.2 723 721 25.6% 6.3% 31.9% 73-93 696-750 694-748 -5.2 -20 -24
Indians 74.3 87.7 720 779 8.8% 2.6% 11.4% 64-84 693-747 751-807 5.3 74 27
Royals 68.4 93.6 680 806 3.7% 1.2% 4.9% 58-78 654-706 777-834 1.4 4 -39
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 88.0 74.0 746 680 45.7% 5.9% 51.6% 78-98 719-774 654-707 -2.0 -41 -7
Athletics 84.6 77.4 681 646 31.3% 6.1% 37.4% 75-95 655-707 620-671 3.6 18 20
Angels 77.9 84.1 666 687 14.9% 3.6% 18.5% 68-88 640-691 661-713 -2.1 -15 -15
Mariners 73.6 88.4 639 711 8.1% 2.2% 10.3% 64-84 614-665 685-738 12.6 126 13

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W Std: Wins range within one standard deviation
RS Std: Runs scored within one standard deviation
RA Std: Runs allowed within one standard deviation
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

One thing I need to note, since it may not be obvious. Those standings are NOT saying the Tigers are going to win the AL Central with 84.6 wins. They are saying the Tigers projected to win the AL Central most frequently(31.2% of the time) and that they averaged 84.6 wins.  Those are two separate things. In order to actually win the division, the AL Central winner had to win 90 games on average.

Here are the average wins for each place in the AL, plus the wild card.

Division AL East
Place # W
1 98
2 91
3 86
4 79
5 72
Division AL Central
Place # W
1 90
2 84
3 80
4 74
5 67
Division AL West
Place # W
1 91
2 84
3 78
4 71
AL Wild Card 92

Regular readers know that this whole exercise is an excuse to make fancy pie charts, so here’s how the AL division title percentages look for the aggregate in pie chart form.

I’ll run through the divisions and teams briefly:

AL East

Boston Red Sox
Average Projected Wins: 94
Division Title Percentage: 42.1%
Wild Card Percentage: 17.8%
Playoff Percentage: 59.8%

Boston projects as the best team in baseball, but they don’t project to be some 110 win juggernaut.  They obviously added a couple of nice pieces in Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, but they lost two very important players from last year’s team in Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez.  The bulk of Boston’s projected improvement is based on the assumptions of better health from some of their key players who missed significant time last year, and on some bounce back years from some of their pitchers who struggled. 

Why they might be better than projected: There’s little doubt that Adrian Gonzalez has moved from a park that suppresses offense significantly to one that boosts offense.  You never know exactly how an individual player’s performance will be affected by moving to a new park, so there’s a chance that his projections may not fully capture how much he’ll benefit.  So if Gonzalez is able to take more advantage of Fenway than expected, he may exceed his projections
In addition to that, while most of the projections expect some bounce back from Josh Beckett, John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka, any one of them or all of them might be able to outperform their projections.
They may also get better than expected performance out of shortstop if Jed Lowrie can stay healthy and take away some of Marco Scutaro’s time.

Why they might be worse than projected: You shouldn’t read too much into spring training performance, but Beckett has looked pretty shaky.  If he’s not healthy or he’s lost some zip even a modest bounce back may be asking too much.  Kevin Youkilis hasn’t played a lot of 3B over the past two years, and there’s a chance his defense there might be lacking, although he’s got good numbers at 3B in his career.  They may also have trouble with lefties in the late innings with their bullpen if Dennys Reyes and/or Hideki Okajima are ineffective, although Daniel Bard, Bobby Jenks and Jonathan Papelbon have generally been pretty effective against them.  Their lineup may be a bit more susceptible to LHP.

New York Yankees
Average Projected Wins: 92
Division Title Percentage: 32.8%
Wild Card Percentage: 18.2%
Playoff Percentage: 51.0%

The Yankees are probably not as good as Boston, although with the error bars in any projection a gap of two wins is effectively not much of a gap.  At least one NL team’s scouts seem to think the Yankees are better.

Why they might be better than projected: I’ve assumed that Jesus Montero will only get about 200 PA, but if he’s able to exceed that and play passable defense the Yankees can probably get a few more runs out of him than they would out of Russell Martin and/or Francisco Cervelli. 

It’s not likely, but I don’t think anyone would be shocked to see Alex Rodriguez put up an MVP-caliber season, which is not something he’s projected to do.  He’s tearing the cover off the ball in spring training, although that’s not necessarily predictive.

The Yankees’ rotation has a lot of uncertainty in it, but but if A.J. Burnett can pitch closer to how he did in 2009 and they get serviceable pitching out of Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia they’ll be in in pretty good shape.  They’ve also got some intriguing arms that are long on potential in AA and AAA that may end up helping them out as the season proceeds.

Why they might be worse than projected: Derek Jeter may set the all-time record for grounding into double plays.  The lineup looks strong, but they’re not particularly young and there’s a chance they’ll get worse than expected performances/missed time from some of their key players and they don’t have a ton of depth behind the starters.  Jorge Posada’s bat would probably still play well at catcher, but it’s uncertain how well it’ll play as a DH.  The uncertainty that may help the Yankee rotation out-perform their projections could also cause it to crash and burn.

Tampa Bay Rays
Average Projected Wins: 86
Division Title Percentage: 16.0%
Wild Card Percentage: 13.4%
Playoff Percentage: 29.4%

The Rays have won the AL East in two of the past three seasons.  Despite that, the “experts” aren’t expecting a lot out of Tampa Bay since they lost their entire bullpen and Carl Crawford.  Of course, those experts should probably take a look at how they built that bullpen in the first place.  Most were traded for at a minimal cost or signed relatively cheaply and there’s no reason to think they can’t cobble a similarly good pen together in 2011. 
Why they might be better than projected: They’ve got youth on their side with a lot of their key players.  They also have a lot of flexibility with players who can play several positions and hit well, which should help mitigate any injuries or poor performances.  It’s looking less likely that B.J. Upton’s going to turn into a superstar, but you never know.

Why they might be worse than projected: Some of their younger players like Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson may have some growing pains, and some of their hopes for contending are contingent on Ben Zobrist hitting a bit better than he did in 2010 coming off a back injury. 

Baltimore Orioles
Average Projected Wins: 79
Division Title Percentage: 6.0%
Wild Card Percentage: 6.5%
Playoff Percentage: 12.5%

The Orioles may have improved more than any other team in baseball, at least if you compare their projections to their 2010 performance.  Their lineup looks pretty good, and Brian Matusz looks like he’s on his way to becoming one of the best young pitchers in baseball.  The Orioles played very well after Buck Showalter took over, although that in and of itself is not necessarily predictive.

Why they might be better than projected: They could see better than expected performances out of Matt Wieters, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis, all of who have been somewhat disappointing relative to expectations so far.  If they can get good performances out of some of their non-Matusz young starters like Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergesen and Chris Tilman and can get a reasonable number of starts out of Justin Duchscherer their pitching could surprise.

Why they might be worse than projected: Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee have seen their best days, but still project decently, so if they underperform a bit that could hurt.  There’s a non-zero chance they get nothing out of Duchscherer and some of their young starters struggle.

Toronto Blue Jays
Average Projected Wins: 74
Division Title Percentage: 3.1%
Wild Card Percentage: 3.2%
Playoff Percentage: 6.3%

The Jays projections seem low to me, although I guess that’s largely a function of playing in a tough division.

Why they might be better than projected: Jose Bautista is probably a completely different player than he was in 2008 and the first five months of 2009, but the projections don’t know that.  If he’s closer to 2010 Bautista than he’s projected to be that will make the offense better.  The subpar performances of Adam Lind, Travis Snyder and Aaron Hill in 2010 may be hurting their projections as well.  They’ve got some interesting young arms in the rotation who could also be better than expected.

Why they might be worse than projected: The offense doesn’t look great, particularly if Edwin Encarnacion is the primary DH and Juan Rivera is the primary LF.  The defense may be a bit less than great with Jose Bautista at 3B and Adam Lind at 1B.

AL Central
Detroit Tigers
Average Projected Wins: 85
Division Title Percentage: 31.2%
Wild Card Percentage: 6.4%
Playoff Percentage: 37.7%

A busy offseason has vaulted Detroit to the top of the projected AL Central.  They’ve probably got the best pitcher in their division in Justin Verlander and one of the top hitters in baseball with Miguel Cabrera.

Why they might be better than projected: The Tigers are heavily right-handed which is a benefit in Comerica park.  Rick Porcello’s raw numbers looked worse in 2010 than they were in 2009, but his FIP was actually about 0.40 runs better, so he may pitch better than a projection that doesn’t account for that would think. 

Why they might be worse than projected: There’s not a lot of depth here.  An injury to one of their front-line players like Cabrera or Verlander or Victor Martinez would be tough to overcome.  They have some good defenders but their overall defense doesn’t look all that great.  They’re counting on Phil Coke making the transition to the rotation and that’s a risk in terms of both performance and innings.

Minnesota Twins
Average Projected Wins: 84
Division Title Percentage: 30.7%
Wild Card Percentage: 6.6%
Playoff Percentage: 37.3%

The Twins return essentially the same team that won the AL Central in 2010, minus J.J. Hardy but plus Joe Nathan.

Why they might be better than projected: Francisco Liriano had a very good year in 2010 and if you look at his peripherals it looks even better.  However, his projections include a less than great 2009.  If the reason for that 2009 was due to limitations as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery then his projections probably underrate him.  Getting a full season out of Justin Morneau may also help, as I’ve assumed he’ll only play about 75% of the games due to his concussion issues.

Why they might be worse than projected: Their outfield defense isn’t very good, particularly Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer.  While most projections try to account for defense when projecting pitching, they may not be penalzing the Twins enough.  Morneau may miss a non-trivial amount of time, which would also obviously hurt.  They’ve got Alexi Casilla penciled in as the starting SS, but he’s only played 233 innings there in his career so he may not be up for the task.  They’re also counting on Tsuyohsi Nishioka at 2B, and it’s tough to know exactly how his game will translate from Japan.

Chicago White Sox
Average Projected Wins: 83
Division Title Percentage: 25.6%
Wild Card Percentage: 6.3%
Playoff Percentage: 31.9%

The White Sox added Adam Dunn, who should be a huge upgrade over what they got out of DH last year.  They’ll also have a full season of Edwin Jackson.

Why they might be better than projected:  The biggest reason I can think of is Edwin Jackson.  He was a completely different pitcher for the White Sox that he’s been at any point in his career, although it was only 11 starts.  His BB/9 was 2.16 compared to 3.86 career, and his K/9 rate jumped to 9.24 compared to 6.68.  If that was due to Don Cooper’s coaching and not just a nice little run that was due more to luck than skill he could be a lot more valuable than expected.  It’ll be interesting to see how Gordon Beckham does this year, as he fell off significantly from his 2009.

Why they might be worse than projected: The White Sox have generally been one of the healthiest teams in baseball, but Jake Peavy is a major injury risk based on his past history and the drop-off after him is pretty steep.  They’ve got Brent Morel slated as the starting 3B.  His defensive reputation is quite good, but his bat’s still an uncertain proposition.

Cleveland Indians
Average Projected Wins: 74
Division Title Percentage: 8.8%
Wild Card Percentage: 2.6%
Playoff Percentage: 11.4%

The Indians are probably the youngest team in baseball.  They return most of a team that was pretty bad in 2010.

Why they might be better than projected: Grady Sizemore’s trying to make his way back from injury.  Prior to that he was one of the best players in baseball and if he’s able to recapture most of that and play regularly it’ll help.  Their rotation is young and that may help them pitch better than projected. 

Why they might be worse than projected: Aside from Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana (and a healthy Sizemore), their position players aren’t particularly great.  It’s tough to see them scoring a lot of runs as presently constituted, and their defense last year was pretty lousy.  A repeat of that could make their run prevention worse than projected.

Kansas City Royals
Average Projected Wins: 68
Division Title Percentage: 3.7%
Wild Card Percentage: 1.2%
Playoff Percentage: 4.9%

With Zach Greinke now in Milwaukee, it’s looking like another painful year for the Royals in 2011, but their future looks a lot brighter.

Why they might be better than projected: The Royals might have the best farm system in baseball and some of those prospects may start contributing this year. 

Why they might be worse than projected: The Royals are probably not even going to sniff contention, so it may make sense to make moves with the future in mind that could hurt them in the short-term.  The package they got back for Greinke doesn’t look all that great, and right now it looks like they are going to have Jeff Francoeur hitting in the middle of the lineup, something that Braves and Mets fans probably get hives about.

AL West
Texas Rangers
Average Projected Wins: 88
Division Title Percentage: 45.7%
Wild Card Percentage: 31.3%
Playoff Percentage: 51.6%

2010’s AL Champions look like the class of the AL West. 

Why they might be better than projected: I’ve seen it expressed in more than one place that the Rangers need to replace Cliff Lee and that losing him is going to hurt, but is losing 109 innings of 3.98 ERA that big of a deal? 
The defensive upgrade from Michael Young to Adrian Beltre at 3B is huge on paper, but projections may understate it.  Derek Holland has the stuff to be better than projected and that would slot in nicely behind C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis.  I’ve restricted Brandon Webb to about 10 starts, so if he can make more than that and pitch as projected they’ll benefit.

Why they might be worse than projected: 2010 was Wilson’s first full season as a starter in the majors, so I suppose there’s some risk that he breaks down at some point.  Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler have both shown problems with staying healthy at times and losing either of them for a significant amount of time (particularly Hamilton) would be a big blow.  They may get nothing out of Webb. 

Oakland Athletics
Average Projected Wins: 85
Division Title Percentage: 31.3%
Wild Card Percentage: 6.1%
Playoff Percentage: 37.4%

Despite scoring 37 runs more than they allowed, the A’s finshed 2010 at 81-81.  The projections expect them to be less unlucky in 2011 and pick up those 3-4 missing wins.

Why they might be better than projected: They should be a pretty good defensive team, which may not be fully captured in their pitching projections. 

Why they might be worse than projected: They’ve got some health concerns in their pitching staff, and their offense isn’t great. A lot of their pitchers had ERAs well below their FIPs/xFIPs and may regress more than projected, although some of that difference is probably due to park.

LA Angels
Average Projected Wins: 78
Division Title Percentage: 14.9%
Wild Card Percentage: 3.6%
Playoff Percentage: 18.5%

A bad offseason following their first losing season since 2003 has the Angels projected behind Texas and Oakland.  However, they’ll have a full season of Dan Haren and the return of Kendrys Morales as upgrades.

Why they might be better than projected: An outfield of Vernon Wells in LF, Peter Bourjos in CF and Torii Hunter in RF could be the best defensive OF in baseball.  That could be particularly beneficial to Jered Weaver who is a fly ball pitcher.  At this point it looks like Scott Kazmir the budding ace has morphed into Scott Kazmir the replacement level pitcher, but he’s still young and might be able to recapture some of his former glory.

Why they might be worse than projected: Their catching situation stinks, and they don’t have much depth behind their starters.  Fernando Rodney as closer seems like a good way to lose some close games late.

Seattle Mariners
Average Projected Wins: 74
Division Title Percentage: 8.1%
Wild Card Percentage: 2.2%
Playoff Percentage: 10.3%

Picked by many to be in contention in the AL West in 2010, the Mariners instead lost 101 games.  They scored an abysmal 513 runs and actually over-performed their pythagorean W-L by four games.  Of course, they weren’t really that bad, they just had a lot of things go wrong which means they should be better in 2011 just by dumb luck, although they still don’t look like a contender.

Why they might be better than projected: Erik Bedard looks healthy, but I’ve assumed he’ll only pitch about 15 games.  If they can get a full season out of him they’ll be a bit better. 

Why they might be worse than projected: Their offense still looks pretty lousy, and if they’ve decided they can’t contend they may try and flip some of their players for prospects.


For the NL edition, click here.

And there you have it, the 2011 Diamond Mind projection blowout.  Results are not guaranteed.

--Posted at 6:59 am by SG / 55 Comments | - (0)



The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - PECOTA Edition

Originally developed by Nate Silver, who’s moved on to bigger things, PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus has in the past been considered one the best projection systems.  Since Silver left they have had a few issues, but it’s now in the hands of Colin Wyers who is one of the best baseball analysts around, so I’d expect it to be pretty good again.  Baseball Prospectus runs their own projected standings, so these should NOT be considered what PECOTA is projecting.  It’s more what PECOTA is projecting using my depth charts for all the other projections.  The difference shouldn’t be more than 1-2 games in either direction for the most part.

Here’s how this version of the projected standings shape up.

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 94.1 67.9 809 681 41.1% 17.7% 58.8% 84-104 781-837 655-707 5.1 -9 -63
Yankees 92.1 69.9 835 730 31.0% 18.1% 49.0% 82-102 806-864 703-757 -2.9 -24 37
Rays 87.0 75.0 765 700 17.5% 15.0% 32.5% 77-97 737-792 674-727 -9.0 -37 51
Orioles 80.0 82.0 752 767 7.2% 7.7% 14.9% 70-90 725-780 740-795 14.0 139 -18
Blue Jays 75.4 86.6 690 742 3.2% 4.2% 7.4% 65-85 664-716 715-769 -9.6 -65 14
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Tigers 83.4 78.6 720 700 29.0% 6.0% 34.9% 73-93 693-747 673-726 2.4 -31 -43
Twins 83.2 78.8 764 748 26.3% 5.7% 32.0% 73-93 736-791 721-776 -10.8 -17 77
White Sox 83.1 78.9 746 745 27.9% 6.2% 34.1% 73-93 719-773 718-772 -4.9 3 0
Indians 76.4 85.6 734 769 12.3% 3.7% 15.9% 66-86 707-761 741-797 7.4 88 17
Royals 69.7 92.3 705 816 4.5% 1.3% 5.8% 60-80 678-732 787-844 2.7 29 -29
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 85.8 76.2 740 693 41.7% 4.8% 46.5% 76-96 713-767 666-719 -4.2 -47 6
Athletics 83.0 79.0 664 646 31.1% 4.9% 35.9% 73-93 638-689 620-671 2.0 1 20
Angels 78.5 83.5 636 651 18.4% 3.3% 21.7% 69-89 611-662 625-676 -1.5 -45 -51
Mariners 72.7 89.3 622 704 8.8% 1.6% 10.4% 63-83 597-647 677-730 11.7 109 6
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 91.0 71.0 731 638 42.4% 10.6% 53.0% 81-101 704-758 612-663 -6.0 -41 -2
Braves 87.0 75.0 716 658 29.5% 11.1% 40.6% 77-97 690-743 633-684 -4.0 -22 29
Marlins 81.2 80.8 692 684 14.8% 7.0% 21.8% 71-91 665-718 658-710 1.2 -27 -33
Mets 78.8 83.2 717 744 10.1% 5.3% 15.4% 69-89 690-744 717-771 -0.2 61 92
Nationals 70.0 92.0 661 760 3.1% 1.6% 4.7% 60-80 635-687 732-787 1.0 6 18
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Cardinals 84.2 77.8 738 707 30.0% 7.1% 37.1% 74-94 711-765 680-734 -1.8 2 66
Brewers 82.6 79.4 723 707 22.0% 6.5% 28.5% 73-93 696-750 680-734 5.6 -27 -97
Cubs 81.3 80.7 729 723 20.5% 5.6% 26.2% 71-91 702-756 696-750 6.3 44 -44
Reds 81.3 80.7 718 715 20.2% 6.2% 26.4% 71-91 692-745 688-742 -9.7 -72 30
Pirates 70.2 91.8 677 780 4.4% 1.7% 6.1% 60-80 651-703 752-807 13.2 90 -86
Astros 67.0 95.0 569 692 2.9% 1.0% 3.9% 57-77 545-593 666-719 -9.0 -42 -37
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Giants 89.5 72.5 692 620 38.4% 10.3% 48.8% 80-100 666-719 595-645 -2.5 -5 37
Dodgers 84.9 77.1 670 642 25.0% 8.8% 33.8% 75-95 644-696 617-667 4.9 3 -50
Rockies 82.4 79.6 792 774 17.5% 7.9% 25.5% 72-92 764-820 746-801 -0.6 22 57
Padres 79.9 82.1 649 671 12.6% 6.1% 18.7% 70-90 624-675 645-697 -10.1 -16 90
Diamondbacks 74.5 87.5 665 717 6.4% 3.2% 9.6% 65-85 639-691 690-744 9.5 -48 -119

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W Std: Wins range within one standard deviation
RS Std: Runs scored within one standard deviation
RA Std: Runs allowed within one standard deviation
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

--Posted at 6:50 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)



The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Marcel Edition

Marcel was developed by Tangotiger of The Book fame.

As an aside, Tango is running a community playing time forecast if you want to help him out.

Back to Marcel, although it’s considered the most basic projection system, it is generally as good as any other system since added complexity really hasn’t shown to add all that much accuracy over Marcel, and the principles behind it are solid and should be the basis for any good forecasting system.  Here’s how it sees things looking in 2011.

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 91.6 70.4 841 734 40.0% 14.4% 54.4% 82-102 812-870 707-762 2.6 23 -10
Yankees 89.0 73.0 785 711 28.5% 14.1% 42.5% 79-99 757-813 685-738 -6.0 -74 18
Rays 85.3 76.7 747 699 19.2% 11.5% 30.7% 75-95 720-775 673-726 -10.7 -55 50
Orioles 78.8 83.2 754 780 8.7% 6.2% 14.9% 69-89 726-781 752-808 12.8 141 -5
Blue Jays 72.4 89.6 691 768 3.7% 2.6% 6.3% 62-82 665-717 740-796 -12.6 -64 40
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Twins 85.7 76.3 757 709 34.3% 7.2% 41.5% 76-96 729-784 682-736 -8.3 -24 38
White Sox 83.5 78.5 714 701 26.3% 7.2% 33.5% 73-93 687-740 674-727 -4.5 -29 -44
Tigers 83.3 78.7 717 696 26.3% 7.6% 33.9% 73-93 690-744 669-722 2.3 -34 -47
Indians 75.1 86.9 693 747 9.8% 3.0% 12.9% 65-85 667-720 720-775 6.1 47 -5
Royals 68.4 93.6 659 783 3.3% 1.2% 4.5% 58-78 633-685 755-811 1.4 -17 -62
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 88.7 73.3 781 710 42.9% 8.2% 51.2% 79-99 753-809 684-737 -1.3 -6 23
Athletics 85.6 76.4 679 644 30.2% 7.8% 38.0% 76-96 653-705 618-669 4.6 16 18
Angels 79.9 82.1 697 703 16.0% 5.6% 21.6% 70-90 670-723 676-729 -0.1 16 1
Mariners 76.7 85.3 634 673 10.8% 3.5% 14.3% 67-87 609-659 647-699 15.7 121 -25
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 87.7 74.3 715 654 34.9% 9.4% 44.3% 78-98 689-742 628-679 -9.3 -57 14
Braves 85.2 76.9 695 654 27.3% 9.0% 36.3% 75-95 668-721 628-679 -5.8 -43 25
Marlins 81.6 80.4 694 685 17.2% 7.0% 24.2% 72-92 667-720 659-711 1.6 -25 -32
Mets 79.9 82.1 670 679 13.9% 5.6% 19.5% 70-90 644-696 653-705 0.9 14 27
Nationals 73.8 88.2 655 719 6.7% 3.1% 9.8% 64-84 629-680 692-746 4.8 0 -23
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Reds 83.7 78.3 740 712 27.6% 8.0% 35.6% 74-94 713-767 686-739 -7.3 -50 27
Cardinals 82.3 79.7 732 724 24.5% 7.5% 32.0% 72-92 705-759 698-751 -3.7 -4 83
Cubs 80.5 81.5 718 721 18.7% 6.3% 25.0% 71-91 691-744 694-747 5.5 33 -46
Brewers 79.3 82.7 710 728 15.1% 5.3% 20.4% 69-89 683-736 701-755 2.3 -40 -76
Pirates 74.5 87.5 679 736 10.0% 3.3% 13.4% 64-84 653-705 709-763 17.5 92 -130
Astros 69.6 92.4 609 715 4.1% 1.6% 5.8% 60-80 585-634 688-742 -6.4 -2 -14
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Dodgers 85.3 76.7 657 624 28.4% 8.8% 37.2% 75-95 631-682 599-649 5.3 -10 -68
Giants 84.3 77.7 647 620 24.8% 7.9% 32.7% 74-94 622-673 595-645 -7.7 -50 37
Rockies 83.3 78.7 764 741 23.5% 7.3% 30.7% 73-93 736-792 713-768 0.3 -6 24
Padres 79.8 82.2 616 633 14.6% 6.4% 21.0% 70-90 592-641 608-658 -10.2 -49 52
Diamondbacks 75.4 86.6 686 732 8.8% 3.5% 12.3% 65-85 660-712 705-759 10.4 -27 -104


W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W Std: Wins range within one standard deviation
RS Std: Runs scored within one standard deviation
RA Std: Runs allowed within one standard deviation
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

--Posted at 6:46 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)



The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CAIRO Edition

CAIRO is my own in-house projection system, which is based on Marcel with the following changes.

1) I use the prior four years of data, whereas Marcel uses only the prior three years.
2) I make adjustments for park, which Marcel does not do.
3) I use major league equivalencies for players who’ve played in the minors, which Marcel does not do.
4) I account for the defense behind a pitcher in their prior seasons as well as in projecting them for the next season, which Marcel does not do.
5) Marcel regresses everyone towards league average, I also regress towards different additional means based on player age and primary position.

You can download the latest version of the 2011 CAIRO projections at this link.

Here’s how CAIRO projects the 2011 MLB standings.

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 95.8 66.2 826 684 42.8% 18.7% 61.5% 86-106 798-855 658-710 6.8 8 -60
Yankees 93.1 68.9 821 713 31.7% 19.4% 51.1% 83-103 792-849 686-739 -1.9 -38 20
Rays 87.6 74.4 734 660 17.8% 14.9% 32.7% 78-98 707-761 634-686 -8.4 -68 11
Orioles 77.2 84.8 746 790 4.3% 5.3% 9.5% 67-87 718-773 762-818 11.2 133 5
Blue Jays 75.8 86.2 689 737 3.5% 3.9% 7.4% 66-86 663-716 710-764 -9.2 -66 9
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Tigers 84.3 77.7 713 696 34.4% 5.7% 40.1% 74-94 686-739 670-723 3.3 -38 -47
White Sox 83.1 78.9 718 712 30.7% 5.5% 36.3% 73-93 691-745 686-739 -4.9 -25 -33
Twins 81.7 80.3 747 732 25.2% 5.3% 30.5% 72-92 720-775 705-759 -12.3 -34 61
Indians 71.4 90.6 707 788 6.4% 1.7% 8.1% 61-81 681-734 760-817 2.4 61 36
Royals 66.6 95.4 661 803 3.3% 0.7% 4.0% 57-77 636-687 774-831 -0.4 -15 -42
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 89.3 72.7 730 652 48.1% 6.7% 54.9% 79-99 703-757 626-677 -0.7 -57 -35
Athletics 85.5 76.5 669 626 32.1% 6.3% 38.4% 76-96 643-695 601-651 4.5 6 0
Angels 77.7 84.3 659 686 14.1% 3.9% 18.0% 68-88 633-685 659-712 -2.3 -22 -16
Mariners 72.1 89.9 619 703 5.6% 1.9% 7.6% 62-82 594-644 676-729 11.1 106 5
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 92.8 69.2 742 630 45.0% 10.6% 55.6% 83-103 714-769 605-655 -4.2 -30 -10
Braves 86.6 75.4 736 674 25.6% 10.7% 36.3% 77-97 709-763 648-700 -4.4 -2 45
Marlins 82.8 79.2 677 655 15.3% 7.7% 22.9% 73-93 651-703 630-681 2.8 -42 -62
Mets 79.0 83.0 662 681 8.9% 5.1% 14.0% 69-89 637-688 655-707 0.0 6 29
Nationals 74.1 87.9 653 714 5.2% 2.8% 8.0% 64-84 627-679 687-740 5.1 -2 -28
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Reds 86.9 75.1 749 697 31.1% 10.2% 41.3% 77-97 721-776 670-723 -4.1 -41 12
Brewers 86.0 76.0 754 702 26.3% 9.0% 35.3% 76-96 727-782 675-728 9.0 4 -102
Cardinals 85.3 76.7 748 712 28.4% 9.1% 37.5% 75-95 721-775 685-738 -0.7 12 71
Cubs 78.4 83.6 733 755 10.7% 5.2% 15.9% 68-88 706-760 728-783 3.4 48 -12
Pirates 66.7 95.3 673 805 2.1% 1.1% 3.2% 57-77 647-699 777-834 9.7 86 -61
Astros 65.3 96.7 598 749 1.4% 0.9% 2.3% 55-75 573-622 721-776 -10.7 -13 20
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Giants 87.2 74.9 704 652 35.7% 7.2% 42.9% 77-97 678-731 627-678 -4.8 7 69
Rockies 83.1 78.9 769 749 22.3% 6.6% 29.0% 73-93 742-797 721-776 0.1 -1 32
Padres 81.1 80.9 651 652 18.4% 5.8% 24.2% 71-91 626-677 626-677 -8.9 -14 71
Dodgers 80.9 81.1 676 679 17.8% 6.0% 23.8% 71-91 650-702 653-705 0.9 9 -13
Diamondbacks 72.4 89.6 695 773 5.8% 2.0% 7.8% 62-82 669-721 745-801 7.4 -18 -63

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W Std: Wins range within one standard deviation
RS Std: Runs scored within one standard deviation
RA Std: Runs allowed within one standard deviation
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

--Posted at 6:35 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)




Thursday, February 10, 2011

CAIRO v0.6 and Still Too Early 2011 MLB Projected Standings

I’ve updated the 2011 CAIRO projections to version 0.6 and have uploaded them to the site.  They can be downloaded at the link below:

Cairo_2011_v0.6.zip

I’ve basically just updated rosters again and fixed a few issues.  I’ve also added a projected standings page.

I probably will not do another update until about a week before the season starts, unless there’s some reason to.

Speaking of projected standings, it’s been about six weeks since I posted my extremely early projected standings for 2011 so here’s an update.

I suppose this is where I should tell you that it’s still too early to treat these as gospel and we still have position battles and rosters to finalize, as well as playing time allocation and injuries to deal with, but that doesn’t seem to prevent some people from taking them seriously and insulting my mother anyway, so I won’t.

I used the depth charts from MLB Depth Charts.com as of February 8, but I also included some playing time from the benches as well as some of the pitchers who aren’t necessarily expected to make their teams out of spring training but who will likely be needed at some point.

Date 2/8/2011
Iterations 10,000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 96.2 65.8 831 687 45.6% 17.6% 63.2% 7.2 13 -57
Yankees 92.1 69.9 821 726 28.8% 19.4% 48.2% -2.9 -38 33
Rays 87.9 74.1 737 663 17.3% 14.6% 31.9% -8.1 -65 14
Blue Jays 77.2 84.8 709 738 4.2% 5.0% 9.2% -7.8 -46 10
Orioles 76.9 85.1 739 788 4.2% 4.8% 9.0% 10.9 126 3
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
White Sox 84.3 77.7 718 704 36.1% 5.7% 41.8% -3.7 -25 -41
Twins 82.3 79.7 744 727 26.9% 5.0% 31.9% -11.7 -37 56
Tigers 81.9 80.1 714 697 27.7% 5.5% 33.2% 0.9 -37 -46
Indians 70.6 91.4 711 804 6.2% 1.4% 7.6% 1.6 65 52
Royals 66.2 95.8 658 806 3.1% 0.7% 3.8% -0.8 -18 -39
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 92.7 69.3 728 626 57.6% 6.6% 64.2% 2.7 -59 -61
Athletics 85.8 76.2 667 620 28.9% 8.8% 37.7% 4.8 4 -6
Angels 77.1 84.9 647 678 10.1% 3.6% 13.7% -2.9 -34 -24
Mariners 70.4 91.6 606 705 3.4% 1.3% 4.7% 9.4 93 7
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 93.7 68.3 735 617 48.4% 10.4% 58.8% -3.3 -37 -23
Braves 87.2 74.8 735 665 26.1% 10.3% 36.4% -3.8 -3 36
Mets 80.1 81.9 667 678 10.3% 6.0% 16.3% 1.1 11 26
Marlins 79.3 82.7 668 679 9.5% 5.3% 14.8% -0.7 -51 -38
Nationals 74.9 87.1 643 698 5.7% 3.3% 9.0% 5.9 -12 -44
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Reds 87.2 74.8 746 689 31.8% 10.0% 41.8% -3.8 -44 4
Cardinals 86.6 75.4 744 689 31.0% 9.9% 40.9% 0.6 8 48
Brewers 86.6 75.4 746 688 26.5% 9.4% 35.9% 9.6 -4 -116
Cubs 75.8 86.2 722 768 7.3% 3.8% 11.1% 0.8 37 1
Astros 66.9 95.1 604 740 1.5% 1.0% 2.5% -9.1 -7 11
Pirates 66.6 95.4 663 796 1.9% 1.1% 3.0% 9.6 76 -70
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Giants 86.9 75.1 698 649 32.1% 8.2% 40.2% -5.1 1 66
Rockies 83.4 78.6 758 736 23.3% 7.0% 30.2% 0.4 -12 19
Padres 83.1 78.9 648 638 21.6% 6.5% 28.1% -6.9 -17 57
Dodgers 82.2 79.8 673 665 19.7% 6.7% 26.4% 2.2 6 -27
Diamondbacks 69.5 92.5 672 775 3.3% 1.2% 4.5% 4.5 -41 -61


W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here’s a comparison of this set of projections compared to the last ones:

TM 28-Dec 28-Dec 28-Dec 28-Dec 9-Feb 9-Feb 9-Feb 9-Feb Diff Diff Diff Diff
W Div WC PL W Div WC PL W Div WC PL
Angels 78 15.5% 3.2% 18.7% 77 10.1% 3.6% 13.7% -1 -5.4% 0.4% -5.0%
Astros 66 1.1% 1.0% 2.1% 67 1.5% 1.0% 2.5% 1 0.4% 0.0% 0.4%
Athletics 82 26.1% 4.3% 30.4% 86 28.9% 8.8% 37.7% 4 2.8% 4.5% 7.3%
Blue Jays 74 2.6% 5.8% 8.4% 77 4.2% 5.0% 9.2% 3 1.6% -0.8% 0.8%
Braves 89 26.6% 13.3% 39.9% 87 26.1% 10.3% 36.4% -1 -0.5% -3.0% -3.5%
Brewers 87 27.9% 8.9% 36.7% 87 26.5% 9.4% 35.9% -1 -1.4% 0.5% -0.8%
Cardinals 90 35.0% 12.0% 47.0% 87 31.0% 9.9% 40.9% -4 -4.0% -2.1% -6.1%
Cubs 79 10.5% 6.3% 16.8% 76 7.3% 3.8% 11.1% -4 -3.2% -2.5% -5.7%
Diamondbacks 74 6.4% 1.9% 8.3% 70 3.3% 1.2% 4.5% -4 -3.1% -0.7% -3.8%
Dodgers 83 20.3% 7.2% 27.5% 82 19.7% 6.7% 26.4% -1 -0.6% -0.5% -1.1%
Giants 84 24.1% 6.6% 30.6% 87 32.1% 8.2% 40.2% 3 8.0% 1.6% 9.6%
Indians 74 8.2% 2.7% 10.8% 71 6.2% 1.4% 7.6% -3 -2.0% -1.3% -3.2%
Mariners 72 8.4% 2.5% 10.9% 70 3.4% 1.3% 4.7% -2 -5.0% -1.2% -6.2%
Marlins 77 8.7% 5.0% 13.7% 79 9.5% 5.3% 14.8% 2 0.8% 0.3% 1.1%
Mets 77 7.1% 4.5% 11.6% 80 10.3% 6.0% 16.3% 4 3.2% 1.5% 4.7%
Nationals 72 3.2% 2.0% 5.2% 75 5.7% 3.3% 9.0% 3 2.5% 1.3% 3.8%
Orioles 70 1.8% 2.9% 4.7% 77 4.2% 4.8% 9.0% 7 2.4% 1.9% 4.3%
Padres 81 17.7% 5.0% 22.6% 83 21.6% 6.5% 28.1% 2 3.9% 1.5% 5.5%
Phillies 96 54.5% 11.0% 65.5% 94 48.4% 10.4% 58.8% -2 -6.1% -0.6% -6.7%
Pirates 68 2.1% 1.2% 3.3% 67 1.9% 1.1% 3.0% -1 -0.2% -0.1% -0.3%
Rangers 89 50.1% 4.5% 54.6% 93 57.6% 6.6% 64.2% 4 7.5% 2.1% 9.6%
Rays 87 17.9% 18.7% 36.6% 88 17.3% 14.6% 31.9% 1 -0.6% -4.1% -4.7%
Red Sox 98 54.6% 15.6% 70.2% 96 45.6% 17.6% 63.2% -2 -9.0% 2.0% -7.0%
Reds 86 23.5% 8.2% 31.7% 87 31.8% 10.0% 41.8% 2 8.3% 1.8% 10.1%
Rockies 86 31.7% 5.9% 37.6% 83 23.3% 7.0% 30.2% -3 -8.4% 1.1% -7.4%
Royals 67 2.8% 1.1% 3.9% 66 3.1% 0.7% 3.8% -1 0.3% -0.4% -0.1%
Tigers 84 27.5% 4.6% 32.0% 82 27.7% 5.5% 33.2% -2 0.2% 0.9% 1.2%
Twins 86 33.3% 6.2% 39.5% 82 26.9% 5.0% 31.9% -3 -6.4% -1.2% -7.6%
White Sox 85 28.4% 6.2% 34.5% 84 36.1% 5.7% 41.8% 0 7.7% -0.5% 7.3%
Yankees 89 23.2% 21.7% 44.9% 92 28.8% 19.4% 48.2% 3 5.6% -2.3% 3.3%

The Diff columns are just the December 28 results subtraced from the February 9 results.  Positive means a team’s odds have improved, negative means they’ve decreased.

In the AL East, the Blue Jays, Orioles, Rays and Yankees all improved, with Baltimore making the biggest gains.  The Red Sox still project as the best team in baseball, but the gap has shrunk a bit. 

Aside from the Rafael Soriano signing, the Yankees haven’t made any major moves, but by adding Andruw Jones, Freddy Garcia and Ronnie Belliard they’ve improved their depth.  Of course, it’s possible Belliard’s 2010 shows he’s at the end of the line and will not be very good, so if they are instead back to using Ramiro Pena and Eduardo Nunez more frequently that may hurt them some.

CAIRO still likes the White Sox in the Central, with the Twins and Tigers nipping on their heels. 

The Rangers look like a strong favorite in the AL West, although if they trade Michael Young that may hurt their depth a bit.  I only gave Brandon Webb about 10 starts, so how he does could have an impact on them.

Oakland hasn’t made any major moves, but they have improved by about four wins in this set of projections, mostly by shoring up their bullpen a bit.  The Angels and Mariners don’t really look like contenders at this point.

In the National League, the Phillies still look like the best team.  The Braves look like a solid second place team in the East, with the Mets, Marlins and Nationals a bit worse and separated by maybe five games in total.  For the Mets I’ve assumed that Chris Young and Johan Santana will split the #1 spot in the rotation at 50% each, but I have no idea how likely that is.

The top of the NL Central has bunched up a bit, with the Reds now slight favorites, primarily due to adding Edgar Renteria and Fred Lewis.  Really though, there’s a three-way tie at the top, with only 0.6 wins separating Cincinnati, Milwaukee and St. Louis.  The Cubs appear to have a stranglehold on fourth place.  I think there are two other teams in the Central as well.

The Giants still look to be on top of the NL West, with the Rockies, Padres and Dodgers a few games behind them but very close to each other.  I don’t really have anything to say about the Diamondbacks, so insert your own commentary here if you wish.

Even though rosters are a bit more settled than they were six weeks ago, it’s still too early to read too much into these.  So take them with the appropriate amount of skepticism.

--Posted at 7:15 am by SG / 43 Comments | - (0)




Monday, January 24, 2011

Updated Still Too Early 2011 AL East Standings Projection

With the Rays signing Johnny Damon/Manny Ramirez and the Jays trading Vernon Wells for Mike Napoli/Juan Rivera I was curious to see how it may AL East projected standings from this post may have changed, and here it is.

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Red Sox 94.9 67.1 834 693 45.5% 16.3% 61.8%
Yankees 90.3 71.7 819 739 25.4% 17.4% 42.8%
Rays 88.1 73.9 736 663 19.8% 15.1% 34.9%
Blue Jays 77.9 84.1 721 738 5.6% 5.6% 11.2%
Orioles 75.5 86.5 732 796 3.8% 4.0% 7.8%

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

Things appear to be getting pretty tight.  This is going to make Boston beating out the 1927 Yankees as “best team of evah” particularly noteworthy.

--Posted at 9:50 am by SG / 17 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Extremely Early CAIRO 2011 MLB Projected Standings

Around this time every year I like to run projected standings for the upcoming MLB season.  It’s very limited in telling us much about how 2011 will play out since there are still a lot of roster changes coming, but it may give us some sense of how the offseason has impacted teams to this point and it also shows us how things would look if nothing changed from now until April.  Which won’t happen.

Since this point is not readily comprehensible for people of limited intelligence I’ll reiterate it. It’s too early to construct meaningful rosters for a lot of teams, so these projections will favor the teams that have essentially completed their 2011 rosters. 

In addition to that, projection systems are inherently limited.  They are designed to estimate a player’s true talent based on what they’ve done so far and also by factoring in things like age and how similar players have performed in the past.  They will generally be in the ballpark for the general population of MLB players, but they can miss significantly on individual players which can obviously affect certain teams more heavily than others.

So, anyway, using the depth charts from the wonderful MLB Depth Charts and includng playing time from players on the 40 man roster who don’t necessarily figure to be part of the the opening day 25 man rosters to account for organizational depth and playing out next season 10,000 times, here’s how CAIRO v0.3 sees things as of December 27, 2010.

Date 12/28/2010
Iterations 10000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 98.1 63.9 856 690 54.6% 15.6% 70.2% 9.1 38 -54
Yankees 89.1 72.9 835 740 23.2% 21.7% 44.9% -5.9 -24 47
Rays 87.1 74.9 707 640 17.9% 18.7% 36.6% -8.9 -95 -9
Blue Jays 74.1 87.9 693 737 2.6% 5.8% 8.4% -10.9 -62 9
Orioles 70.1 91.9 723 813 1.8% 2.9% 4.7% 4.1 110 28
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Twins 85.7 76.3 752 715 33.3% 6.2% 39.5% -8.3 -29 44
White Sox 84.5 77.5 735 711 28.4% 6.2% 34.5% -3.5 -17 7
Tigers 84.0 78.0 727 712 27.5% 4.6% 32.0% 3.0 -24 -31
Indians 73.9 88.1 728 802 8.2% 2.7% 10.8% 4.9 82 50
Royals 66.9 95.1 678 815 2.8% 1.1% 3.9% -0.1 2 -30
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 89.2 72.8 746 673 50.1% 4.5% 54.6% -0.8 -41 -14
Athletics 82.1 79.9 678 667 26.1% 4.3% 30.4% 1.1 15 41
Angels 77.9 84.1 665 690 15.5% 3.2% 18.7% -2.1 -16 -12
Mariners 72.2 89.8 635 703 8.4% 2.5% 10.9% 11.2 122 5
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 96.1 65.9 754 618 54.5% 11.0% 65.5% -0.9 -18 -22
Braves 88.5 73.5 754 690 26.6% 13.3% 39.9% -2.5 16 61
Mets 76.6 85.4 675 702 7.1% 4.5% 11.6% -2.4 19 50
Marlins 77.3 84.7 679 708 8.7% 5.0% 13.7% -2.7 -40 -9
Nationals 72.4 89.6 659 733 3.2% 2.0% 5.2% 13.4 -51 -141
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Cardinals 90.2 71.8 746 676 35.0% 12.0% 47.0% 4.2 10 35
Brewers 87.2 74.8 698 650 27.9% 8.9% 36.7% 10.2 -52 -154
Reds 85.5 76.5 723 689 23.5% 8.2% 31.7% -5.5 -67 4
Cubs 79.3 82.7 742 761 10.5% 6.3% 16.8% 4.3 57 -6
Pirates 67.7 94.3 671 808 2.1% 1.2% 3.3% -6.3 28 38
Astros 65.8 96.2 604 732 1.1% 1.0% 2.1% 3.8 -32 -36
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rockies 85.9 76.1 768 732 31.7% 5.9% 37.6% 2.9 -2 15
Giants 84.2 77.8 699 667 24.1% 6.6% 30.6% -7.8 2 84
Dodgers 83.3 78.7 677 659 20.3% 7.2% 27.5% 3.3 10 -33
Padres 81.2 80.8 647 652 17.7% 5.0% 22.6% -8.8 -18 71
Diamondbacks 73.8 88.2 690 757 6.4% 1.9% 8.3% 3.8 -30 -25

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

The only reason I am showing wins and losses to one decimal place is so I don’t have to answer questions about why the wins and losses don’t add up to exactly 2430.  There is no way to imply that something like this can be precise to that level.

Did I mention that it’s still too early to do this, and that it shouldn’t be taken seriously?

I guess it’s not exactly news that Boston and Philadelphia look to be the two best teams in baseball right now.  Although it’s easy for lazy analysts to make the claim that Tampa Bay is going to be bad because they lost Carl Crawford and their whole bullpen, it’s just not true.  They’ve won the AL East in two of the past three seasons, and they have a ton of pitching talent in the minors.  Jake McGee looks like a potentially dominant closer.  They also won 96 games last year despite getting very little production out of first base and DH.  Losing Crawford hurts, but Desmond Jennings is another good prospect who has a chance to mitigate that a bit as well.

Toronto tends to project worse than they actually end up doing every year, mainly because they’ve always seemed to get better than expected pitching.  They’ve lost John Buck and Shaun Marcum from last year’s team, and CAIRO is expecting Jose Bautista will not hit 54 HRs again which explains most of their drop.

The Orioles tend to project better than they actually end up doing every year, but perhaps they’ll Buck that trend in 2011.

As for our Yankees, they’re still a good team.  They’re just not as good as Boston on paper right now.  That doesn’t mean they can’t win the division, it just means that they need some players to exceed their projections (A.J.?) and/or some players from Boston/Tampa Bay to underperform some of their’s.  If they can add Andy Pettitte or some league average starter who can give them 180 innings or so that’s probably worth another two wins over Ivan Nova/Sergio Mitre.

Right now the AL Central looks pretty tightly bunched at the top between the White Sox, Tigers and Twins.  Cleveland should be able to hold off KC for fourth place, although if Melky-mania runs wild who knows?

The West looks like Texas’s to lose, even without Cliff “The Big Train” Lee. LA of A could pick up about three wins if they sign Adrian Beltre, but that alone doesn’t seem like it’d be enough to get them up to Texas’s level.

I don’t know if the Phillies are as good as Boston, although they may be a better short series team.  They are almost certainly the tallest midget in the circus known as the National League, but they’re not some 110 win juggernaut on paper.  The Braves seem to be the second best team in the NL East and should at least be a strong contender for the wild card.

The Cardinals still appear to have the best front-line talent in the NL Central although Milwaukee has improved themselves significantly.  The Reds are not far off from the top either.

The NL West is also tightly bunched at the top, with only about four wins separating first place through fourth.

Did I mention that it’s too early for this to be taken too seriously?

--Posted at 10:00 am by SG / 134 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, October 3, 2010

That’s a Wrap

With all of the games in the 2010 regular season now complete, here’s how every team did compared to their aggregate projections in my pre-season projection blowout.

American League

National League

Team W pW w+/-
Blue Jays 85 65.1 19.9
Padres 90 75.9 14.1
Twins 94 83.1 10.9
Giants 92 81.1 10.9
Reds 91 80.6 10.4
White Sox 88 79.8 8.2
Phillies 97 89.7 7.3
Astros 76 68.8 7.2
Rangers 90 84.4 5.6
Rays 96 91.2 4.8
Tigers 81 77.9 3.1
Mets 79 76.1 2.9
Braves 91 88.3 2.7
Angels 80 78.0 2.0
Athletics 81 79.2 1.8
Marlins 80 80.0 0.0
Rockies 83 83.8 -0.8
Yankees 95 96.1 -1.1
Red Sox 89 92.9 -3.9
Royals 67 71.5 -4.5
Cardinals 86 90.6 -4.6
Brewers 77 81.6 -4.6
Nationals 69 74.8 -5.8
Dodgers 80 86.3 -6.3
Cubs 75 83.1 -8.1
Orioles 66 74.6 -8.6
Indians 69 79.9 -10.9
Pirates 57 72.3 -15.3
Diamondbacks 65 82.2 -17.2
Mariners 61 81.4 -20.4

W: 2010 final win total
pW: Original projected win total
w+/-: W minus pW

Yeesh, those Jays and Mariners projections sure look lousy, huh?

--Posted at 7:04 pm by SG / 11 Comments | - (0)




Friday, October 1, 2010

NY Post: With 3 to go, Yankees, Rays tied

BOSTON—After six months of chasing each other, the Yankees and Rays are tied for the AL East lead with three games remaining.

The Rays, who lost to the Royals last night, finish in Kansas City. The Yankees are at Fenway Park for three vs. the Red Sox.

For all the angst surrounding the Yankees in the last month, they have a chance to cop the AL East and gain home-field advantage in the ALDS and ALCS.

THE YANKEES AND RAYS ARE NOT TIED FOR F’S SAKES.  BOTH TEAMS MADE THE POSTSEASON AND THE RAYS WON THE SEASON SERIES.  IN ORDER FOR THE YANKEES TO WIN THE DIVISION THEY HAVE TO FINISH ONE GAME BETTER.

When will people figure this out?

--Posted at 10:17 am by SG / 40 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, September 23, 2010

The Implications of Tonight’s Game with Tampa Bay

The Yankees and Rays will face off for the last time in the regular season later tonight (weather permitting).  The Yankees still hold a 1.5 game lead on the Rays, but a loss tonight would tie the two in the loss column.

At this point, it’s a virtual certainty both teams are going to the postseason.  So the question is which team is going to end up taking the division since it means home field advantage and a possible seeding advantage.

The Rays lead the season series 9-8, so the best the Yankees can do is tie it by winning tonight.  Why does that matter?  Because it’s the first tie-breaker when two teams from the same division end the year qualifying for the postseason with the same record.

So if the Yankees don’t win tonight, the Rays will win the AL East if the Yankees and Rays end the season with the same record.

How about if the Yankees do win tonight, by some miracle? In that instance, the season series is tied which means they have to move onto the second tie-breaker.  Here’s how Major League Rule 33 and Major League rule 34 describe that.

The Club with the higher winning percentage in head-to-head competition between the two tied Clubs during the championship season; or

If the Clubs remain tied, then to the tied Club with the higher winning percentage in intradivision games during the championship season; or

If the Clubs remain tied, then to the tied Club with the higher winning percentage in the last half of intraleague games during the championship season; or

If the Clubs remain tied, then to the tied Club with the higher winning percentage in the last half plus one of intraleague games during the championship season, provided that such additional game was not a game between the two tied Clubs. This process will be followed game-by-game until the tie is broken.

The Rays have three intradivisional games left after tonight, at home hosting the Orioles.  They currently have a record of 40-28 against the rest of the AL East.

The yankees have nine intradivisional games left after tonight, three at home vs. Boston and then six on the road against Toronto and Boston.  They are currently 35-27 against the rest of the AL East.

If the Rays lose all the rest of their AL East games starting tonight, they end with an intradivision record of 40-32.  So the Yankees would only have to take four of nine from Toronto/Boston to tie that.  However, the more likely scenario is Tampa Bay picking up two wins against Baltimore which means the Yankees would have to go 6-3 against Toronto/Boston to match them.

My Monte Carlo simulator currently puts the AL East odds at:
Yankees: 64.8%
Rays: 35.1%

That is high for the Yankees because my simulator awards ties a share of the division, so if the Yankees and Rays finish the year with the same record they each get 0.5 of the division title.  Someday I’ll fix that, but for now just mentally adjust that in your head.

If the Yankees win tonight (haha), the odds go to:
Yankees: 75.9%
Rays: 23.1%

And when the Yankees lose tonight, the odds go to:
Rays: 54.0%
Yankees: 46.0%

Again, mentally adjust those to account for the tie-breakers.

That’s a pretty big swing on one game, huh?

It almost seems to me like the Yankees have to win this game if they want the division, but at this point it’s not worth going above and beyond for it.  If it happens, great.  If not, take your chances on the road to start the postseason.

--Posted at 10:11 am by SG / 42 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Did The Yankees Blow Their Chance at the AL East?

On September 4, the Yankees won their eighth consecutive game and had opened up a two game edge in the loss column for the AL East. 

At this point, with 26 games left on the year they were in the driver’s seat for the AL East title

Probability of winning AL East as of September 4
Yankees: 72.0%
Tampa Bay: 28.%
Boston: 0.0%

Boston was not quite at zero, but close enough when you round to the nearest tenth.

With four more games at home to finish off the long home stand before a potentially ugly road trip coming up, the Yankees just needed to hold serve to remain in control for the division title. 

Holding court with one game versus Toronto and then three games with Baltimore at home meant something like this:

Vs. Toronto: 66% win probability
Vs. Baltimore: 80% win probability times three

So the Yankees should have won three of those four games if they wanted to keep that 72.0% probability of winning the AL East.

Instead, they’ve lost the first three of those games and now need to win this afternoon to avoid losing all four as well as a humiliating sweep AT HOME AGAINST THE HORRIBLE BALTIMORE ORIOLES.

Probability of winning AL East as of September 7
Yankees: 55.5%
Tampa Bay: 44.0%
Boston: 0.5%

So what happens if the Yankees lose today?

Yankees: 48.2%
Tampa Bay: 51.3%
Boston: 0.5%

This includes the probability of Tampa Bay winning or losing today.

Now obviously that’s closer to a toss-up than a clear Tampa Bay edge, but it now requires the Yankees to meet expectations over their last 22 games of the year, 15 of which are on the road.

Think about that again.  The Yankees have 22 games left this season after today, and only seven of them are at home.  Oh, and those seven home games are against arguably two of the top three teams in baseball.

I realize for some people the division doesn’t matter, but I’m not one of them.  I actually consider winning the division to be a major achievement worthy of respect, not a stepping stone on the way to either winning the World Series or having a failure of a season.

Because of that, these last three days have really aggravated me.  Today may end up killing me.

--Posted at 9:09 am by SG / 15 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, August 29, 2010

Updated Monte Carlo Postseason Odds Through August 29, 2010

Team W Div WC PO
Rays 99.5 52.3% 43.9% 96.1%
Yankees 99.3 47.2% 48.3% 95.5%
Rangers 90.8 93.7% 0.0% 93.7%
Padres 94.6 83.5% 5.8% 89.3%
Reds 93.7 80.2% 8.6% 88.7%
Twins 93.3 87.4% 0.3% 87.7%
Braves 93.7 71.0% 14.3% 85.3%
Phillies 90.6 27.9% 28.0% 56.0%
Cardinals 89.2 19.7% 20.7% 40.4%
Giants 88.6 13.2% 15.4% 28.6%
White Sox 87.4 11.7% 0.7% 12.4%
Red Sox 90.6 0.5% 6.7% 7.2%
Rockies 84.5 2.7% 3.9% 6.6%
Athletics 82.3 5.7% 0.0% 5.7%
Marlins 82.6 0.7% 1.6% 2.3%
Dodgers 82.5 0.6% 1.3% 1.9%
Tigers 80.8 1.0% 0.0% 1.0%
Mets 81.9 0.3% 0.4% 0.7%
Angels 77.7 0.7% 0.0% 0.7%
Blue Jays 83.2 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Brewers 75.8 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Orioles 58.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indians 67.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Royals 67.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mariners 63.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nationals 69.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cubs 68.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pirates 53.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Astros 73.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Diamondbacks 65.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

W: Final projected win total (average of 10,000 iterations)
Div: Percentage of time team won their division
WC: Percentage of time team won the wild card
PO: Percentage of time team made the playoffs (Div + WC)

The Rays’ schedule is a bit easier than the Yankees’ going forward, so they may now probably be a very slight favorite to win the East.  For all intents and purposes though, it’s a tossup.

The Rays and Yankees are currently the two most likely teams to qualify for the postseason.

Boston’s not dead yet, but they probably should get a priest prepped for administering last rites shortly.

The Rangers, Reds, Padres, Twins and Braves are all pretty big favorites to take their divisions at this point (all over 70%) and the NL wild card race looks like Philly -> St. Louis -> Giants.

Shocking no one, the Orioles, Indians, Royals, Mariners, Nationals, Cubs, Pirates, Astros and Diamondbacks are either mathematically eliminated or have a less than 1 in 10,000 likelihood of making the postseason.

--Posted at 10:55 pm by SG / 48 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, August 3, 2010

MLB.com: Two-hitting Yanks, Romero paces Jays

NEW YORK—Left-hander Ricky Romero turned in a gem and the Blue Jays launched four home runs, paving the way for an 8-2 victory over the Yankees on Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium.

Romero, who entered the evening with a 6.91 ERA in his career against New York, limited the reigning World Series champions to just two hits in a complete-game gem for the Blue Jays (56-51). Romero’s performance helped Toronto take the first two contests in this three-game stop in the Bronx.

The Yankees (66-40) managed one brief outburst early on against Romero, who surrendered two runs in the first inning on Mark Teixeira’s 23rd homer of the season. Romero issued a leadoff walk to Derek Jeter and later yielded the two-run shot to Teixeira to put the Blue Jays in an early hole.

Unless the Rays blow a three-run lead, they should have sole possession of first place within the hour.  I’d like to thank the Yankees for participating in the 2010 AL East divisional race.

--Posted at 8:46 pm by SG / 17 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, July 8, 2010

Monte Carlo Wins and Postseason Odds Report Through Games of July 7, 2010

I just realized I haven’t run my Monte Carlo simulations for wins and postseason odds since May 25, so here’s an update through yesterday’s games.

When these were last run, the Yankees were on pace for around 97 wins and they had about a 70.2% chance at making the postseason.  Their probability of taking the AL East was around 33.5%, trailing Tampa Bay who were at 51.9%.  Boston was at around 36.4% for making the postseason and 14.1% to take the AL East.

For the going forward projections, I’m using 60% 2010 Pythagenpat and 40% 2010 pre-season projections.  Team performance over the rest of the season then gets added to actual 2010 W/L to estimate each team’s projected final win total and postseason odds.

Team pW opW pW+/-
Padres 91.6 75.9 15.7
Mets 88.4 76.1 12.3
Blue Jays 76.3 65.1 11.2
Reds 91.0 80.6 10.4
Rangers 94.3 84.4 9.9
Tigers 85.1 77.9 7.2
Rays 98.3 91.2 7.1
White Sox 85.3 79.8 5.5
Braves 93.4 88.3 5.1
Twins 88.0 83.1 4.9
Yankees 100.5 96.1 4.4
Angels 82.3 78.0 4.3
Giants 85.2 81.1 4.1
Rockies 87.5 83.8 3.7
Royals 74.3 71.5 2.8
Red Sox 92.9 92.9 0.0
Marlins 79.9 80.0 -0.1
Dodgers 86.2 86.3 -0.1
Cardinals 90.3 90.6 -0.3
Athletics 77.3 79.2 -1.9
Nationals 72.6 74.8 -2.2
Phillies 86.3 89.7 -3.4
Astros 64.5 68.8 -4.3
Brewers 74.4 81.6 -7.2
Cubs 74.5 83.1 -8.6
Indians 67.0 79.9 -12.9
Mariners 67.9 81.4 -13.5
Pirates 57.2 72.3 -15.1
Diamondbacks 65.0 82.2 -17.2
Orioles 52.6 74.6 -22.0

pW: Updated projected wins as of July 7
opW: Original pre-season projected wins
pW+/-:pW - opW

This table shows how many wins every team is now projected to end the season with, sorted in descending order of improvement compared to the preseason.

Break up the Padres! 
I think I like these probabilities better than the last ones.

Team ppo% opo% po%+/-
Rangers 86.3% 38.9% 47.4%
Padres 57.6% 13.2% 44.4%
Reds 62.5% 21.3% 41.2%
Rays 75.4% 46.1% 29.3%
Braves 68.3% 42.9% 25.4%
Mets 37.5% 13.0% 24.5%
Yankees 83.0% 63.0% 20.0%
Twins 44.6% 34.8% 9.8%
Tigers 25.9% 19.9% 6.0%
Cardinals 56.3% 50.9% 5.4%
White Sox 29.3% 24.8% 4.5%
Rockies 31.9% 30.3% 1.6%
Blue Jays 0.6% 1.9% -1.3%
Giants 21.8% 23.3% -1.5%
Astros 0.0% 4.4% -4.4%
Royals 2.6% 9.3% -6.7%
Pirates 0.0% 7.6% -7.6%
Orioles 0.0% 8.3% -8.3%
Angels 12.2% 21.6% -9.4%
Dodgers 28.0% 38.5% -10.5%
Nationals 0.6% 11.1% -10.5%
Marlins 6.1% 19.3% -13.2%
Red Sox 37.0% 53.0% -16.0%
Athletics 2.7% 23.8% -21.1%
Phillies 26.3% 48.0% -21.7%
Brewers 1.4% 23.5% -22.1%
Indians 0.2% 25.4% -25.2%
Cubs 1.8% 27.2% -25.5%
Diamondbacks 0.1% 25.6% -25.6%
Mariners 0.2% 29.4% -29.2%

ppo%: Re-projected probability of making playoffs
opo%: Original projected probability of making the playoffs
po%+/-:ppo% - opo% (increase or decrease in playoff probability)

This table compares every team’s current probability of making the postseason with their pre-season projections, sorted in descending order of increase in probability.

Hard to believe that a team as awful as the Yankees are now at 83.0% to make the postseason, but that’s almost certainly due to me rigging these numbers to make the Yankees look better than they are.

FWIW, revised AL East odds are now:
WOE: 51.5%
Rays: 36.4%
16 Aces + best defense evah: 12.0%

--Posted at 2:02 pm by SG / 16 Comments | - (0)




Monday, June 28, 2010

Inter-league Play’s Impact on the AL East Race

I don’t recall if I’ve ever mentioned my thoughts on interleague play, but I’ll just say I’m not a fan and leave it at that.

Most of the reasons I hate it are aesthetic, but one of the chief issues I have with with it is that it can create a slightly different playing field for teams that are competing for the same thing.  I don’t think that impact is huge, but it doesn’t have to be huge to make a difference.

So I figured with the exhibitions games over, I’d see how the interleague play schedule and results may have impacted the AL East.  With all due respect to Toronto, I don’t think they’re going to be in the mix all year so I’m just looking at the big three.

So what I did was calculate the log5 win expectations for each team’s interleague schedule.  I’m using 2010 Pythagenpat records with a .04 home field advantage.  This is then compared to the actual wins for each team, and here’s how it looks.

 Boston  xW aW  Yankees  xW  aW  Tampa Bay  xW aW
 @PHI .48  0   @NYM .51  1  @HOU  .73  0 
 @PHI .48  1   @NYM .51  0  @HOU  .73  1 
 @PHI .48  1   @NYM .51  0  @HOU  .73  1 
 PHI .54  1   HOU .83  1  FLA  .58  0 
 PHI .54  1   HOU .83  1  FLA  .58  1 
 PHI .54  0   HOU .83  1  FLA  .58  0 
 ARI .70  1   PHI .58  1  @ATL  .47  1 
 ARI .70  1   PHI .58  0  @ATL  .47  0 
 ARI .70  1   PHI .58  0  @ATL  .47  0 
 LAD .60  1   NYM .57  0  @FLA  .52  0 
 LAD .60  1   NYM .57  1  @FLA  .52  1 
 LAD .60  1   NYM .57  1  @FLA  .52  0 
 @COL .49  0   @ARI .68  0  SDP  .50  0 
 @COL .49  0   @ARI .68  1  SDP  .50  0 
 @COL .49  1   @ARI .68  1  SDP  .50  1 
 @SFG .47  0   @LAD .58  1  ARI  .70  0 
 @SFG .47  1   @LAD .58  0  ARI  .70  1 
 @SFG .47  1   @LAD .58  1  ARI  .70  0 
 Total 9.5  13    8.9  11   8.9  7 
 Diff  3.5     2.1    -1.9 

xW: Expected wins using Bill James’s log5 methodology
aW: Actual wins
Diff: aW - xW

Now, I haven’t adjusted this for pitching matchups and I have not incorporated any projection data, so there’s probably some margin of error in here.

As you can see here, Boston’s benefitted the most from interleague play, but the Yankees also did better than expected.  Tampa Bay is the team that was hurt the most.

--Posted at 9:19 am by SG / 47 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, June 13, 2010

What A Difference Three Weeks Makes

Since May 23, the Yankees have picked up six games on Tampa Bay to move back into a tie for first place in the AL East. 

team w l rs ra wpct pyth
New York 14 5 109 71 .737 .694
Boston 13 7 120 75 .650 .712
Tampa Bay 8 11 93 98 .421 .475
Toronto 8 10 64 77 .444 .417
Baltimore 3 15 44 108 .167 .160

They’ve done it by going 14-5, which a bit less than one game better than what their PythagenPat record over that stretch is.  They also needed Tampa Bay to go 8-11 and underperform their PythagenPat record by about a win.  Boston gained ground on Tampa but dropped a bit further behind the Yankees despite playing to a higher PythagenPat record.  I didn’t think it was possible for Baltimore to play worse than they did over their first 45 games of the year, but congratulations to them for proving me wrong.

Conventional wisdom says that as long as the Yankees win series that’s good enough, but the truth of the matter is, when you get a chance to play one of the worst teams in baseball at home, you really ought to sweep.  Thankfully, the Yankees were able to do that against the Astros by taking today’s game.

The Yankees are now a hair ahead of Tampa Bay for best PythagenPat record in baseball, but for all intents and purposes they’re effectively dead even(.658 for the Yankees and .656 for the Rays).

Now if only they can get better than replacement level play out of first base…

--Posted at 5:21 pm by SG / 96 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Monte Carlo Wins and Postseason Odds Report Through Games of May 24, 2010

I last run these on April 22, and here’s what they look like now.  As a refresher, here’s description of the methodolgy.

 Team pW  opW pW+/-  gain/loss
 Rays 101.0  91.2   9.8  3.0 
 Blue Jays 74.5  65.1   9.4  7.2 
 Padres 82.9  75.9   7.0  4.8 
 Twins 88.3  83.1   5.2  0.7 
 Reds 85.6  80.6   5.0  6.9 
 Tigers 82.8  77.9   4.9  4.5 
 Phillies 94.1  89.7   4.4  0.2 
 Mets 79.3  76.1   3.2  2.1 
 Rangers 87.0  84.4   2.6  3.2 
 Nationals 76.9  74.8   2.1  1.8 
 Cardinals 92.1  90.6   1.5  -1.7 
 Athletics 80.3  79.2   1.1  -2.6 
 Yankees 97.1  96.1   1.0  -3.1 
 Dodgers 87.1  86.3   0.8  1.6 
 Rockies 83.9  83.8   0.1  -1.4 
 Marlins 80.1  80.0   0.1  0.4 
 Giants 81.1  81.1   0.0  -1.4 
 Braves 87.2  88.3   -1.1  -0.3 
 Cubs 81.6  83.1   -1.5  0.8 
 Royals 69.4  71.5   -2.1  -0.6 
 Angels 75.6  78.0   -2.4  -0.9 
 Red Sox 90.3  92.9   -2.6  2.9 
 Pirates 68.4  72.3   -3.9  -0.2 
 White Sox 75.8  79.8   -4.0  1.1 
 Diamondbacks 77.2   82.2  -5.0  -1.7 
 Brewers 76.2  81.6   -5.4  -8.5 
 Astros 62.6  68.8   -6.2  -2.6 
 Mariners 74.3  81.4   -7.1  -8.2 
 Indians 72.1  79.9   -7.8  -6.9 
 Orioles 65.3  74.6   -9.3  -1.3 

pW: Re-projected wins
opW: Original projected wins
pW+/-:pW - opW
gain/loss change from prior run

This table is sorted by overall expected improvement in terms of wins over the pre-season projections entering 2010.

The Rays continue to lead the majors in terms of how much better they now look than they did at the start of the season.  The Yankees’ have lost 3 games from what was around a 100 win pace on April 22. 

In terms of making the postseason, here’s how the probabilities look.

 Team  ppo% opo%  po%+/-  gain/loss
 Rays 80.6%  46.1%   34.5%  10.7% 
 Twins 56.9%  34.8%   22.1%  7.7% 
 Phillies 69.7%   48.0%  21.7%  6.9% 
 Rangers 57.2%  38.9%   18.3%  23.9% 
 Reds 35.2%  21.3%   13.9%  20.1% 
 Cardinals 64.4%   50.9%  13.5%  0.6% 
 Padres 25.2%  13.2%   12.0%  10.8% 
 Tigers 28.8%  19.9%   8.9%  8.4% 
 Yankees 70.2%  63.0%   7.2%  -6.4% 
 Dodgers 42.8%  38.5%   4.3%  8.1% 
 Blue Jays 2.9%  1.9%   1.0%  1.4% 
 Athletics 23.8%   23.8%  0.0%  -8.3% 
 Mets 12.7%  13.0%   -0.3%  0.6% 
 Rockies 28.4%  30.3%   -1.9%  -7.0% 
 Giants 20.4%  23.3%   -2.9%  -5.1% 
 Nationals 8.0%   11.1%  -3.1%  -2.2% 
 Astros 0.6%  4.4%   -3.8%  -1.0% 
 Marlins 14.9%  19.3%   -4.5%  -1.3% 
 Braves 37.3%  42.9%   -5.6%  -1.9% 
 Royals 3.7%  9.3%   -5.7%  -2.8% 
 Pirates 1.9%  7.6%   -5.8%  -1.3% 
 Cubs 20.2%  27.2%   -7.1%  0.4% 
 Orioles 0.2%  8.3%   -8.1%  -1.0% 
 Angels 13.0%  21.6%   -8.6%  -3.9% 
 White Sox 11.8%   24.8%  -13.1%  0.2% 
 Diamondbacks 11.2%   25.6%  -14.4%  -5.6% 
 Brewers 7.2%  23.5%   -16.3%  -22.3% 
 Red Sox 36.4%  53.0%   -16.6%  6.3% 
 Mariners 9.5%  29.4%   -19.9%  -19.9% 
 Indians 5.1%  25.4%   -20.3%  -16.4% 

The biggest gainers from the last run are the Rangers and Reds, with the Yankees losing about 6.4%.  They had about a 50% chance of winning the AL East on April 22, but that’s dropped to about 33.5% now, with Tampa Bay moving up to 51.9% and Boston moving from 8.3% to 14.1%.

One thing worth noting is the Yankees have played fewer home games than any AL team with 19, so in theory they should have a bit of an advantage going forward.

That being said, the Yankees are essentially where we should have expected them to be overall, even though the way they got there is kind of annoying. 

--Posted at 10:41 am by SG / 13 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, April 22, 2010

Monte Carlo Wins and Postseason Odds Report through Games of April 22, 2010

Using the same methodology as in this post, but I’ve increased the weight of 2010 actual performance to 10% for the teams going forward projections.

First up, here’s how teams’ win projections have changed from their pre-season projections.

Team pW opW pW+/-
Rays 98.0 91.2 6.8
Twins 87.6 83.1 4.5
Phillies 93.9 89.7 4.2
Yankees 100.2 96.1 4.1
Athletics 82.9 79.2 3.7
Cardinals 93.8 90.6 3.2
Brewers 84.7 81.6 3.1
Blue Jays 67.3 65.1 2.2
Padres 78.1 75.9 2.2
Rockies 85.3 83.8 1.5
Giants 82.4 81.1 1.3
Mariners 82.5 81.4 1.1
Mets 77.2 76.1 1.1
Tigers 78.3 77.9 0.4
Nationals 75.1 74.8 0.3
Marlins 79.7 80.0 -0.3
Rangers 83.8 84.4 -0.6
Braves 87.5 88.3 -0.8
Dodgers 85.5 86.3 -0.8
Indians 79.0 79.9 -0.9
Royals 70.0 71.5 -1.5
Angels 76.5 78.0 -1.5
Reds 78.7 80.6 -1.9
Cubs 80.8 83.1 -2.3
Diamondbacks 78.9 82.2 -3.3
Astros 65.2 68.8 -3.6
Pirates 68.6 72.3 -3.7
White Sox 74.7 79.8 -5.1
Red Sox 87.4 92.9 -5.5
Orioles 66.6 74.6 -8.0

pW: Re-projected wins
opW: Original projected wins
pW+/-:pW - opW

Break up the Rays!  Seriously.  They scare me.

And what those changes in win forecasts mean for the teams’ chances at making the postseason:

Team ppo% opo% po%+/-
Rays 69.9% 46.1% 23.8%
Phillies 62.8% 48.0% 14.8%
Twins 49.2% 34.8% 14.4%
Yankees 76.6% 63.0% 13.6%
Cardinals 63.8% 50.9% 12.9%
Athletics 32.1% 23.8% 8.3%
Brewers 29.5% 23.5% 6.0%
Rockies 35.4% 30.3% 5.1%
Giants 25.5% 23.3% 2.2%
Padres 14.4% 13.2% 1.2%
Tigers 20.4% 19.9% 0.5%
Mariners 29.4% 29.4% 0.0%
Blue Jays 1.5% 1.9% -0.5%
Mets 12.1% 13.0% -0.9%
Nationals 10.2% 11.1% -0.9%
Astros 1.6% 4.4% -2.8%
Royals 6.4% 9.3% -2.9%
Marlins 16.1% 19.3% -3.2%
Braves 39.2% 42.9% -3.7%
Dodgers 34.7% 38.5% -3.8%
Indians 21.5% 25.4% -3.9%
Pirates 3.1% 7.6% -4.5%
Angels 16.9% 21.6% -4.7%
Rangers 33.3% 38.9% -5.6%
Reds 15.1% 21.3% -6.2%
Orioles 1.2% 8.3% -7.1%
Cubs 19.7% 27.2% -7.5%
Diamondbacks 16.8% 25.6% -8.8%
White Sox 11.5% 24.8% -13.4%
Red Sox 30.1% 53.0% -22.9%

ppo%: Re-projected probability of making playoffs
opo%: Original projected probability of making the playoffs
po%+/-:ppo% - opo% (increase or decrease in playoff probability)

As long as the Red Sox stay at the bottom of this list, I will be a happy man.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled complaint thread.

--Posted at 10:37 pm by SG / 46 Comments | - (0)



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