Thursday, April 25, 2013
Pitcher A vs. Pitcher B
If this was all the information you had on two pitchers, which would you choose?
| Pitcher | BB/BF | K/BF | K/BB | GB% | FB% | LD% | IFFB |
| A | 9.1% | 13.9% | 1.53 | 51.3% | 28.6% | 18.0% | 2.2% |
| B | 9.3% | 20.7% | 2.22 | 44.5% | 30.8% | 22.3% | 2.4% |
BB/BF: Walks and hit batters per batters faced
K/BF: Strikeouts per batters faced
K/BB: Strikeout to walk ratio
GB%: Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
FB%: Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
LD%: Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
IFFB: Percentage of batted balls that were infield flies
How about if you had this as well?
| Pitcher | FBv | xFIP | FIP |
| A | 92.7 | 4.53 | 4.24 |
| B | 93.0 | 3.98 | 4.57 |
FBv: Average fastball velocity
xFIP: Expected FIP
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
What about if you also had this?
| Dates | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | BF | RA | ERA |
| 5/13/2010-9/25/2011 | 207.3 | 207 | 96 | 89 | 17 | 74 | 7 | 124 | 889 | 4.17 | 3.86 |
| 4/9/2012-4/21/2013 | 185.0 | 213 | 110 | 105 | 28 | 64 | 12 | 169 | 817 | 5.35 | 5.11 |
I don’t know why Ivan Nova’s peripheral stats have improved while his results have gotten worse. I just know it’s annoying and hope it stops.
Monday, April 22, 2013
Dear Toronto
Fix your radar gun please.
Mariano Rivera
Average cut fastball velocity
4/17: 90.6
4/20: 92.0
Joba Chamberlain
Average fastball velocity.
4/18: 94.7
4/20: 97.5
Ivan Nova
Average fastball velocity.
4/16: 92.9
4/21: 94.5
Average two-seam fastball velocity
4/16: 92.2
4/21: 94.3
David Robertson
Average cut fastball velocity
4/18: 91.9
4/20: 93.7
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
NJ.com: Yankees re-sign lefty reliever Clay Rapada to minor-league deal
The Yankees re-signed lefty specialist Clay Rapada to a minor-league deal, a little more than a week after removing him from their 40-man roster. He’s headed to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre.
According to MLB rules, Rapada can’t be brought to the majors until May 3. Assuming he’s healthy by then you have to figure the obvious 40 man roster move is to replace Cody Eppley with him. Rapada is a much better option when you need to get one lefty hitter out than Boone Logan.
Career vs. LHB:
Rapada: .168/.257/.236
Logan: .250/.319/.385
In fact, among pitchers who have faced at least 100 lefty hitters since 2000, Rapada’s OBP against ranks 19th. In fact, his .257 OBP against lefties is only .001 behind some dude name Mariano Rivera.
The Yankees are going to face a roster crunch all year, and it’ll be interesting to see what they do with it. They do have some flexibility on the pitching staff with several pitchers having options remaining. If David Phelps has been demoted to long reliever they can probably send Adam Warren or Shawn Kelley down for Rapada without hurting themselves too much.
Anyway, I am glad to see Rapada back in the organization and think he can be an important tactical option.
Tuesday, April 2, 2013
NJ.com: McCullough: Should Yankees worry about CC Sabathia’s velocity?
Here’s a point-counterpoint analysis on Sabathia:
Reason for concern: Sabathia’s fastball topped out at 91.7 mph on Monday, according to Pitch f/x data from Brooks Baseball. On Opening Day in 2012, his fastball hit 94.5 mph. On Opening Day in 2011, his fastball touched 94.7 mph.
Reason for calm: Sabathia understands there’s work to be done. “I’m sure that the velocity will keep coming back, and the arm strength will keep building up the more I throw,” he said.
Reason for concern: Sabathia’s fastball velocity fell to 92.3 mph in 2012, according to FanGraphs. That was a career-low.
Reason for calm: Sabathia still struck out 8.87 batters per nine in 2012, the second-best mark of his career. In other words: His offspeed stuff is nasty enough to compensate for a diminishing fastball.
Reason for concern: Sabathia generated just three swings and misses with his fastball on Monday.
Reason for calm: Sabathia generated 11 whiffs with his changeup.
Reason for concern:
Friday, March 29, 2013
Looking Ahead to 2013 - Mariano Rivera
2013 will be the final season of Mariano Rivera’s career. Rivera’s rehabbed his way back from a serious knee injury and looks like he’s healthy and good to go. Here are his projections for this year.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| cairo | 39 | 31 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 34 | 2.74 | 2.59 | 2.86 | 1.1 |
| davenport | 55 | 50 | 21 | 21 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 49 | 3.44 | 3.44 | 3.43 | 1.1 |
| marcel | 35 | 32 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 30 | 3.57 | 3.31 | 3.39 | 0.7 |
| oliver | 34 | 29 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 29 | 3.14 | 2.91 | 2.81 | 0.8 |
| steamer | 56 | 53 | 24 | 22 | 6 | 19 | 2 | 48 | 3.81 | 3.54 | 3.83 | 0.9 |
| zips | 23 | 21 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 3.52 | 3.13 | 3.18 | 0.5 |
| average | 40 | 36 | 15 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 35 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 3.31 | 0.8 |
| 2012 | 8.1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2.22 | 2.22 | 1.82 | 0.3 |
RA: Runs allowed (earned + unearned) per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
WAR: Wins above replacement (using RA)
Between his age and the limited number of innings he pitched last year, most of the projections are expecting a pretty big drop for Rivera. But projections have never handled an outlier like Mo very well.
I think if he’s healthy he’ll beat most of these projections, but I think it’s possible the knee could have some residual effect on his mechanics which would affect his command. Rivera’s command is the key to his performance as he’s lost a few mph. So that’s one thing to watch for this year, more than velocity IMO. Is he hitting his spots? If he is, he should be fine.
CAIRO is the most optimistic projection for Rivera, and here are his percentile forecasts.
| Percentile | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| 80% | 62 | 41 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 64 | 1.94 | 1.81 | 1.71 | 2.3 |
| 65% | 50 | 37 | 13 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 48 | 2.34 | 2.20 | 2.28 | 1.6 |
| Baseline | 39 | 31 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 34 | 2.74 | 2.59 | 2.86 | 1.1 |
| 35% | 31 | 27 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 25 | 3.14 | 2.98 | 3.43 | 0.7 |
| 20% | 23 | 22 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 3.54 | 3.37 | 4.00 | 0.5 |
On one hand, I’d love to see Mo go out in a blaze of glory at the 80% forecast. On the other hand if he does do that this year I’ll wonder just how much longer he could have pitched if he wanted to. That being said, I’m just happy we’ve had him pitching for our favorite team for as long and as well as he has.
Rivera’s postseason splits are obviously the most well-known of his splits, but this split is a fun one too.
| Years | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | HBP | BB | SO | ERA+ | ERA | FIP |
| 1996-2003 | 493 | 582 | 444 | 151 | 139 | 26 | 13 | 147 | 531 | 216 | 2.15 | 2.68 |
| 2004-2012 | 539 | 570 | 425 | 130 | 120 | 28 | 30 | 100 | 537 | 234 | 1.89 | 2.54 |
He’s gotten better as he’s gotten older.
There are two numbers I’ll be watching this year. Mo has a career WHIP is just under 1 at 0.998, and his career ERA+ is 206 (best ever for a pitcher who’s thrown at least 161 innings in their career). I’m hoping he’ll retire with both of those intact(WHIP under 1, ERA+ over 200).
I don’t know if Rivera will get one last shot to shine on the postseason stage this year. Right now the odds are better that he won’t than that he will. But however 2013 plays out, Rivera will be one of the main reasons to watch this season. Savor every chord from Enter Sandman. Savor the cheers he’ll get from the fans in every stadium he’ll pitch in this year. Savor every cutter in on a left-handed batter that breaks their bat, and every called strike that might not have been a strike if it wasn’t Mo throwing it.
We’ll never see anyone like him again.
Looking Ahead to 2013 - David Robertson
David Robertson had another good year in 2012, even if it wasn’t quite as good as his 2011. Robertson actually cut his walk rate pretty significantly last year.
2008: 11.5%
2009: 12.0%
2010: 12.1%
2011: 12.9%
2012: 7.7%
His strike out rate was down from 2011 but still higher than his career average (32.7% vs. 31.5%). Here are his 2013 projections.
2013 Projections - David Robertson
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| cairo | 65 | 55 | 21 | 19 | 4 | 26 | 2 | 80 | 2.85 | 2.64 | 2.76 | 1.8 |
| davenport | 65 | 58 | 25 | 25 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 78 | 3.46 | 3.46 | 3.01 | 1.3 |
| marcel | 62 | 53 | 22 | 21 | 5 | 24 | 2 | 72 | 3.19 | 3.05 | 3.03 | 1.4 |
| oliver | 62 | 48 | 23 | 22 | 3 | 26 | 2 | 82 | 3.35 | 3.19 | 2.39 | 1.3 |
| steamer | 66 | 54 | 23 | 22 | 6 | 27 | 2 | 76 | 3.14 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 1.6 |
| zips | 63 | 50 | 22 | 21 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 84 | 3.14 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 1.5 |
| average | 64 | 53 | 23 | 22 | 5 | 25 | 2 | 79 | 3.19 | 3.06 | 2.91 | 1.5 |
| 2012 | 60.2 | 52 | 19 | 18 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 81 | 2.84 | 2.69 | 2.44 | 1.6 |
RA: Runs allowed (earned + unearned) per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
WAR: Wins above replacement (using RA)
Robertson’s a closer-quality pitcher pitching the eighth inning and he provides a safety net for the Yankees should Mariano Rivera miss time. That didn’t go so well last year, but I wouldn’t make any sweeping generalizations about Robertson’s incapability of closing games because of three or four games where he struggled in 2012. CAIRO likes him a bit more than the other forecasts, and I think that’s always been the case for whatever reason.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| Percentile | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| 80% | 78 | 57 | 19 | 18 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 107 | 2.22 | 2.03 | 1.77 | 2.7 |
| 65% | 72 | 56 | 20 | 19 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 93 | 2.53 | 2.34 | 2.27 | 2.2 |
| Baseline | 65 | 55 | 21 | 19 | 4 | 26 | 2 | 80 | 2.85 | 2.64 | 2.76 | 1.8 |
| 35% | 52 | 47 | 18 | 17 | 4 | 23 | 2 | 61 | 3.16 | 2.94 | 3.26 | 1.2 |
| 20% | 39 | 37 | 15 | 14 | 4 | 19 | 2 | 43 | 3.47 | 3.24 | 3.75 | 0.8 |
I’ll take the baseline here.
Rivera has confirmed that 2013 will be his last season. The heir to Mo seems like about the hardest job for a relief pitcher to inherit, but right now Robertson looks like the guy who’ll get it. He’s got the stuff to do it, and the performance results back that up. But let’s hope he spends all of this year setting up the greatest closer of all time, and doing it as well as he’s been doing it over the last two years.
Looking Ahead to 2013 - Joba Chamberlain, David Aardsma and Boone Logan
There’s still some uncertainty with the back-end of the Opening Day bullpen but as far as I can tell these three guys are locks so they get a post.
2013 Projections -
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| cairo | 46 | 50 | 24 | 21 | 6 | 16 | 2 | 41 | 4.61 | 4.07 | 4.16 | 0.3 |
| davenport | 50 | 51 | 25 | 24 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 47 | 4.50 | 4.32 | 3.77 | 0.4 |
| marcel | 38 | 38 | 18 | 17 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 35 | 4.23 | 3.99 | 3.60 | 0.5 |
| oliver | 38 | 36 | 17 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 36 | 4.01 | 3.79 | 3.47 | 0.5 |
| steamer | 58 | 54 | 23 | 22 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 53 | 3.61 | 3.41 | 3.73 | 1.1 |
| zips | 40.3 | 39 | 20 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 41 | 4.47 | 4.24 | 3.92 | 0.4 |
| average | 45 | 45 | 21 | 20 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 42 | 4.22 | 3.95 | 3.78 | 0.5 |
| 2012 | 20.2 | 26 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 4.90 | 4.46 | 3.99 | 0.1 |
RA: Runs allowed (earned + unearned) per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
WAR: Wins above replacement (using RA)
Probably not quite what we were hoping for back in 2008, Chamberlain basically projects as a serviceable middle relief arm. He may be better as he moves further away from ligament replacement surgery.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| Percentile | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| 80% | 78 | 72 | 32 | 28 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 80 | 3.67 | 3.18 | 2.83 | 1.4 |
| 65% | 62 | 62 | 29 | 25 | 6 | 19 | 2 | 60 | 4.14 | 3.63 | 3.49 | 0.8 |
| Baseline | 46 | 50 | 24 | 21 | 6 | 16 | 2 | 41 | 4.61 | 4.07 | 4.16 | 0.3 |
| 35% | 37 | 42 | 21 | 19 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 30 | 5.09 | 4.52 | 4.82 | 0.1 |
| 20% | 28 | 34 | 17 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 21 | 5.56 | 4.97 | 5.49 | -0.1 |
You can’t help but think back to 2007 and 2008 and imagine 80% Joba, but regardless of what he does this year I’m guessing he’ll end up signing elsewhere after the year, and may get a chance to start again.
2013 Projections - David Aardsma
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| cairo | 19 | 17 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 17 | 4.86 | 4.62 | 4.70 | 0.1 |
| davenport | 45 | 42 | 22 | 21 | 5 | 17 | 2 | 40 | 4.40 | 4.20 | 3.97 | 0.4 |
| marcel | 26 | 24 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 22 | 4.20 | 3.85 | 4.02 | 0.3 |
| oliver | 15 | 16 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 5.89 | 5.40 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| steamer | 47 | 47 | 24 | 22 | 6 | 22 | 2 | 36 | 4.60 | 4.21 | 4.70 | 0.4 |
| zips | 14.7 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 5.51 | 4.90 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| average | 28 | 27 | 15 | 13 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 24 | 4.71 | 4.37 | 4.39 | 0.2 |
| 2012 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 17.05 | 0.0 |
Aardsma’s projections aren’t very useful given how much time he’s missed since 2010 and the fact that he’s been rehabbing from a ligament replacement surgery of his own, but they’re not very good. Aardsma used to average over 94 mph with his fastball but has been around 91 mph this spring, although he was throwing a bit harder over his last few appearances. Whether he lost velocity after surgery or is still rebuilding his arm strength is something we won’t know for a while, but to be honest I think projecting him is a waste of time. He could end up being pretty useful or he may provide nothing. Because of the uncertainty of his return to health I am not going to run his percentile forecasts in CAIRO.
2013 Projections - Boone Logan
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| cairo | 56 | 53 | 24 | 23 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 58 | 3.91 | 3.66 | 3.72 | 0.9 |
| davenport | 45 | 42 | 21 | 20 | 5 | 19 | 2 | 51 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 3.60 | 0.5 |
| marcel | 57 | 53 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 22 | 2 | 58 | 4.11 | 3.79 | 3.65 | 0.8 |
| oliver | 51 | 46 | 24 | 22 | 4 | 22 | 2 | 56 | 4.21 | 3.88 | 3.27 | 0.6 |
| steamer | 53 | 45 | 22 | 20 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 55 | 3.68 | 3.40 | 3.61 | 0.9 |
| zips | 52 | 47 | 25 | 23 | 6 | 22 | 5 | 58 | 4.33 | 3.98 | 3.88 | 0.6 |
| average | 52 | 48 | 24 | 22 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 56 | 4.06 | 3.78 | 3.62 | 0.7 |
| 2012 | 55.1 | 48 | 23 | 23 | 6 | 28 | 2 | 68 | 3.76 | 3.76 | 3.63 | 0.9 |
The projections basically expect more of the same from Logan as last season, who alternates flashes of brilliance with flashes of non-brilliance. Logan picked up some velocity last year but was used pretty heavily by Joe Girardi and you wonder if it may have worn him down some.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| Percentile | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| 80% | 67 | 55 | 23 | 21 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 79 | 3.11 | 2.89 | 2.54 | 1.6 |
| 65% | 61 | 54 | 24 | 22 | 5 | 24 | 2 | 68 | 3.51 | 3.27 | 3.13 | 1.2 |
| Baseline | 56 | 53 | 24 | 23 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 58 | 3.91 | 3.66 | 3.72 | 0.9 |
| 35% | 44 | 45 | 21 | 20 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 43 | 4.30 | 4.04 | 4.30 | 0.5 |
| 20% | 33 | 36 | 17 | 16 | 5 | 18 | 3 | 30 | 4.70 | 4.43 | 4.89 | 0.2 |
None of these guys are signed past this season, for whatever that’s worth.
The Yankee bullpen figures to be solid because that’s been the hallmark of the Joe Girardi Yankees. There’s some obvious upside here with all three of these guys, and I think Girardi will do what he can to get it out of them.
Thursday, March 28, 2013
Looking Ahead to 2013 - Ivan Nova and David Phelps
There’s no question that Ivan Nova and David Phelps are important to the Yankees in 2013. But what they do in 2013 will be even more important in the long-term. With three-fifths of the likely 2013 rotation unsigned past this year, can they establish themselves as part of the Yankees rotation in 2014 and beyond?
Nova had a bizarre season in 2012. Despite improving his walk rate and strikeout rate, he got hammered. Nova gave up more extra base hits than any pitcher in the league, and by some measures (component ERA, tERA) was actually lucky to only have a 5.02 ERA. But by other measures he was unlucky. Here are his 2013 projections.
2013 Projections - Ivan Nova
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| cairo | 164 | 183 | 91 | 84 | 22 | 62 | 7 | 117 | 4.99 | 4.61 | 4.64 | 1.4 |
| davenport | 112.7 | 120 | 59 | 58 | 15 | 38 | 5 | 95 | 4.71 | 4.63 | 4.24 | 1.3 |
| marcel | 161 | 165 | 82 | 77 | 20 | 53 | 7 | 131 | 4.59 | 4.31 | 4.16 | 2.1 |
| oliver | 177 | 184 | 89 | 84 | 18 | 59 | 8 | 138 | 4.55 | 4.27 | 3.94 | 2.4 |
| steamer | 166 | 166 | 81 | 76 | 15 | 56 | 7 | 122 | 4.39 | 4.12 | 3.90 | 2.5 |
| zips | 167 | 181 | 96 | 90 | 23 | 57 | 4 | 125 | 5.17 | 4.85 | 4.44 | 1.1 |
| average | 158 | 166 | 83 | 78 | 19 | 54 | 6 | 121 | 4.73 | 4.46 | 4.21 | 1.8 |
| 2012 | 170.1 | 194 | 100 | 95 | 28 | 56 | 10 | 153 | 5.29 | 5.03 | 4.55 | 0.9 |
RA: Runs allowed (earned + unearned) per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
WAR: Wins above replacement (using RA)
Nova’s average projection has him about a win better than 2012. Steamer is the most optimistic, and ZiPS is the most pessimistic although Dan Szymborski (creator of ZiPS) likes Nova more than his projection system does. As do I.
| Percentile | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| 80% | 188 | 194 | 93 | 86 | 20 | 62 | 5 | 147 | 4.46 | 4.11 | 3.94 | 2.7 |
| 65% | 174 | 186 | 91 | 84 | 21 | 61 | 6 | 130 | 4.72 | 4.36 | 4.29 | 2.0 |
| Baseline | 164 | 183 | 91 | 84 | 22 | 62 | 7 | 117 | 4.99 | 4.61 | 4.64 | 1.4 |
| 35% | 131 | 152 | 76 | 71 | 20 | 53 | 7 | 90 | 5.25 | 4.87 | 4.98 | 0.7 |
| 20% | 98 | 118 | 60 | 56 | 16 | 42 | 6 | 64 | 5.51 | 5.12 | 5.33 | 0.3 |
I have been an unabashed Nova fanboy and I continue to be one, although perhaps a bit less unabashed than I was. I think he has the best stuff of any pitcher currently in the running for a spot in the rotation and I like the fact that he’s confident. I just wish he’d stop throwing so many pitches over the middle of the plate. We’ll see if the adjustement he’s made to his mechanics change his performance, although the spring results were mixed. I really think his 80% forecast is within his reach, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him end the year as the Yankees’ second-best starter.
David Phelps doesn’t have Nova’s arm or stuff, but he probably has a higher floor. Here are his 2013 projections.
2013 Projections - David Phelps
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| cairo | 134 | 153 | 71 | 64 | 18 | 45 | 6 | 97 | 4.72 | 4.30 | 4.44 | 1.5 |
| davenport | 102.7 | 106 | 52 | 51 | 14 | 32 | 5 | 87 | 4.56 | 4.47 | 4.20 | 1.4 |
| marcel | 87 | 76 | 37 | 35 | 11 | 31 | 4 | 81 | 3.84 | 3.63 | 4.04 | 1.8 |
| oliver | 132 | 124 | 57 | 54 | 12 | 43 | 6 | 116 | 3.89 | 3.68 | 3.59 | 2.7 |
| steamer | 127 | 126 | 61 | 58 | 14 | 46 | 6 | 99 | 4.35 | 4.11 | 4.15 | 2.0 |
| zips | 118.3 | 124 | 65 | 61 | 16 | 41 | 2 | 93 | 4.95 | 4.64 | 4.33 | 1.1 |
| average | 117 | 118 | 57 | 54 | 14 | 40 | 5 | 96 | 4.40 | 4.15 | 4.12 | 1.8 |
| 2012 | 99.2 | 81 | 38 | 37 | 14 | 38 | 6 | 96 | 3.45 | 3.36 | 4.28 | 2.5 |
Marcel ignores Phelps’s minor league numbers, but Oliver doesn’t and I’m a bit surprised to see it projecting him that well. The projections are a hybrid of starting and relieving so we can expect Phelps would be a bit worse as a full-time starter and a bit better as a full-time reliever. Here are his CAIRO percentile forecasts.
| Percentile | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| 80% | 155 | 161 | 71 | 65 | 15 | 44 | 4 | 123 | 4.16 | 3.76 | 3.68 | 2.7 |
| 65% | 143 | 155 | 70 | 64 | 16 | 44 | 5 | 108 | 4.44 | 4.03 | 4.06 | 2.1 |
| Baseline | 134 | 153 | 71 | 64 | 18 | 45 | 6 | 97 | 4.72 | 4.30 | 4.44 | 1.5 |
| 35% | 108 | 127 | 60 | 55 | 16 | 39 | 6 | 74 | 5.00 | 4.57 | 4.81 | 0.9 |
| 20% | 81 | 99 | 47 | 43 | 13 | 31 | 5 | 52 | 5.28 | 4.84 | 5.19 | 0.4 |
My guess is that if Phelps was a full-time starter, his 35% forecast is about what he’d do over a full year, but with more innings, because of the whole starter/reliever difference.
With Phil Hughes starting the season on the DL, Phelps will be in the rotation. But when Hughes comes back, unless Nova is getting shelled or someone else is injured he may get shifted to the bullpen. I’d rather see him starting games in the minors if that happened, because he probably needs innings if he’s going to be in the rotation in 2014, but the Yankees have a habit of doing things that appear sub-optimal.
Since 2009, here is the average number of starts made by starters 1-7.
#1: 34
#2: 33
#3: 29
#4: 28
#5: 18
#6: 11
#7: 7
Phelps got 11 starts last year. He has worked as many as 158 innings in a season, but that was in the minors where the innings are less taxing and it was in 2010. I’d like to see him getting at least 160 innings this year, but it doesn’t look like it’s likely to happen. Then again, Phelps will be 27 next year and is perhaps not the injury risk a younger pitcher would be.
I have to admit I’m not 100% sold on Phelps. He’s looked good so far, but I need to see more.
I think Nova has the potential to be the biggest difference maker on the Yankees in terms of upside relative to projection. He’s about the only player I can realistically see being two wins better than his projection. I wouldn’t bet on that happening, but it could. That being said, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him being worse than replacement level either, although he’ll likely have a short leash if he does struggle. Nova does still have at least one option year remaining so he could be sent back to the minors if he doesn’t pitch well.
I think Phelps will be a useful part of the team, even without similar upside.
The Yankee rotation should be a strength this year, and could be better depending on Michael Pineda’s progression and the development of Brett Marshall and/or Adam Warren. And it’s probably going to have to be a strength given the way the position players look at this moment.
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Looking Ahead to 2013 - Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes
With the Yankee offense looking suspect this year, the pitching staff is going to be carrying a lot more of the load. While perhaps not as important to the team’s fortunes as CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda, the Yankees are going to need pretty good years by Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes if they want to win the AL East. Both players have the chance to be quite good, but they also come with risks.
2013 Projections - Andy Pettitte
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| cairo | 116 | 120 | 55 | 48 | 12 | 35 | 2 | 91 | 4.22 | 3.73 | 3.80 | 2.0 |
| davenport | 136 | 135 | 64 | 62 | 17 | 46 | 3 | 120 | 4.24 | 4.10 | 3.99 | 2.3 |
| marcel | 98 | 94 | 42 | 39 | 11 | 32 | 2 | 82 | 3.87 | 3.59 | 3.88 | 2.0 |
| oliver | 102 | 98 | 44 | 41 | 8 | 31 | 2 | 82 | 3.90 | 3.62 | 3.43 | 2.1 |
| steamer | 147 | 148 | 74 | 69 | 15 | 50 | 3 | 106 | 4.55 | 4.22 | 4.02 | 2.0 |
| zips | 90.3 | 90 | 44 | 41 | 10 | 27 | 1 | 73 | 4.39 | 4.09 | 3.80 | 1.4 |
| average | 115 | 114 | 54 | 50 | 12 | 37 | 2 | 92 | 4.22 | 3.92 | 3.84 | 2.0 |
| 2012 | 75.1 | 65 | 26 | 24 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 69 | 3.12 | 2.88 | 3.44 | 2.2 |
RA: Runs allowed (earned + unearned) per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
WAR: Wins above replacement (using RA)
Projecting a 40 year old pitcher is tricky, but most of the projections expect Pettitte to be pretty good on a rate basis. The bigger issue with Pettitte is how many innings the Yankees can get out of him. He hasn’t thrown a full season since 2009. Last year’s injury was more fluke than age-related, but that doesn’t mean his age and ability to stay healthy for a full year aren’t a concern. It’s probably also worth mentioning that Pettitte’s 2012 FIP and xFIP were a fair amount higher than his ERA and that his fastball velocity was down to 87.8 mph vs 89.0 mph in 2010.
Here are Pettitte’s CAIRO percentile forecasts.
| Percentile | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| 80% | 174 | 163 | 71 | 62 | 13 | 44 | 1 | 150 | 3.65 | 3.19 | 3.06 | 4.1 |
| 65% | 128 | 126 | 56 | 49 | 11 | 35 | 2 | 105 | 3.93 | 3.46 | 3.43 | 2.6 |
| Baseline | 116 | 120 | 55 | 48 | 12 | 35 | 2 | 91 | 4.22 | 3.73 | 3.80 | 2.0 |
| 35% | 93 | 100 | 47 | 41 | 11 | 31 | 2 | 69 | 4.51 | 4.00 | 4.18 | 1.3 |
| 20% | 70 | 78 | 37 | 33 | 9 | 25 | 2 | 49 | 4.79 | 4.27 | 4.55 | 0.7 |
I’m less concerned about how Pettitte will pitch than how often he’ll pitch. I’d take 150 innings at the baseline in a heartbeat.
Moving on to Hughes…
2013 Projections - Phil Hughes
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| cairo | 187 | 198 | 100 | 92 | 30 | 53 | 6 | 148 | 4.83 | 4.46 | 4.53 | 1.9 |
| davenport | 149.3 | 156 | 77 | 76 | 22 | 41 | 5 | 128 | 4.64 | 4.58 | 4.17 | 1.8 |
| marcel | 162 | 160 | 83 | 77 | 25 | 47 | 5 | 137 | 4.62 | 4.29 | 4.33 | 2.0 |
| oliver | 154 | 150 | 73 | 68 | 19 | 44 | 5 | 138 | 4.28 | 3.97 | 3.81 | 2.5 |
| steamer | 189 | 190 | 97 | 90 | 27 | 56 | 6 | 143 | 4.62 | 4.29 | 4.38 | 2.4 |
| zips | 156 | 161 | 88 | 82 | 26 | 45 | 1 | 129 | 5.08 | 4.73 | 4.45 | 1.2 |
| average | 166 | 169 | 86 | 81 | 25 | 48 | 5 | 137 | 4.68 | 4.38 | 4.29 | 2.0 |
| 2012 | 191.1 | 196 | 101 | 90 | 35 | 46 | 6 | 165 | 4.76 | 4.24 | 4.52 | 2.1 |
Hughes hasn’t developed into the ace we were hoping for when he was one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but he seems to be establishing himself as a league average starter with perhaps some upside still left in the tank. ZiPS is a little less enamored of Hughes than the others which are all relatively tightly bunched. Here are Hughes’s range of percentile forecasts in CAIRO.
| Percentile | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| 80% | 214 | 212 | 104 | 95 | 28 | 53 | 4 | 184 | 4.35 | 4.00 | 3.86 | 3.3 |
| 65% | 198 | 203 | 101 | 93 | 29 | 53 | 5 | 163 | 4.59 | 4.23 | 4.20 | 2.5 |
| Baseline | 187 | 198 | 100 | 92 | 30 | 53 | 6 | 148 | 4.83 | 4.46 | 4.53 | 1.9 |
| 35% | 149 | 164 | 84 | 78 | 26 | 46 | 6 | 113 | 5.07 | 4.70 | 4.87 | 1.1 |
| 20% | 112 | 128 | 66 | 61 | 21 | 36 | 5 | 81 | 5.31 | 4.93 | 5.20 | 0.5 |
I still have no idea what Hughes will do next year and none of those lines would surprise me. It actually wouldn’t surprise me to see him put up an ERA in the low 3s even. He’s likely to start the year on the DL as a precaution so he probably won’t get much over 180 innings or so.
Hughes had an interesting home/road split last season.
Home: 22 HR, 26 BB, 85 K, 5.18 FIP, 4.61 xFIP
Road: 13 HR, 20 BB, 80 K, 3.90 FIP, 4.08 xFIP
That’s actually less interesting than this:
Home: 3.74 ERA
Road: 4.76 ERA
Why the difference? He had a .251 BABIP against at home compared to a .319 BABIP against on the road and that was likely the bulk of it. He would probably benefit from moving to a different park, and that’s a very distinct possibility as he heads towards free agency after this season.
Pettitte and Hughes have an interesting link, in that Hughes was drafted with the compensation pick that the Yankees got when Pettitte signed with the Houston Astros. They may also be linked in 2013 being their final seasons in pinstripes. In Pettitte’s case, he may decide to retire again. In Hughes’s case, the Yankees may decide to let him walk instead of adding dreaded dollars to the 2014 payroll. That decision will likely be influenced by how Ivan Nova, David Phelps, Michael Pineda and some of the other pitchers on the farm look.
It really wouldn’t surprise me to see Pettitte pitch well enough that returning again in 2014 is a no-brainer. Of course the Yankees wouldn’t be able to afford him.
It also wouldn’t surprise me to see Hughes have a good enough year that he’ll entice several teams to bid for him as a free agent. The better the year he has, the less likely it is that he’ll be a Yankee in 2014 unfortunately. And the worse he is, the less we’ll want him back.
So I don’t know what the hell I want to see him do this year.
I’m hoping Hughes and Pettitte can combine for 320-340 innings of 4.00 ERA. That plus healthy seasons from Sabathia and Kuroda will be a good part of competing for a spot in the postseason.
Monday, March 25, 2013
Looking Ahead to 2013 - CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda
All due respect to Vernon Wells, we’ve got a week until Opening Day and I still have a pitching staff, team and league to project (and of course pie charts) so it’s time to move on.
In the interest of time, I’m doubling up on the pitchers and I’m not going to bother with their 2012 projections compared to their actuals.
For the first time in his Yankee career, CC Sabathia missed some starts. In fact, he wound up on the disabled list twice. Once for a groin strain in June and then again in August due to elbow soreness. He returned from the second stint and finished out the season, highlighted by a dominant nine innings to beat Baltimore in the clinching game of the ALDS, but he followed that with a brutal start against Detroit in the ALCS and after the season got arthroscopic surgery on his elbow to remove a bone spur.
Sabathia’s velocity was down by about 1.5 mph from 2011. His BB rate and K rate actually both improved from 2011 to 2012, but he gave up more homers. I don’t know if the bone spur affected his velocity, but let’s hope he can get some of that back.
For the first time in his Yankee career, Sabathia was not the Yankees’ most valuable pitcher. Hiroki Kuroda ended up being the most valuable pitcher and second most valuable player on the team. Kuroda made a seamless transition to the better league and into a disgraceful bandbox, putting up a career best ERA+ in a career-high 219.2 innings. Over his first nine starts it seemed like he was going to be unable to do that as he put up a 4.56 ERA over 53 innings with 20 walks and 34 strikeouts while allowing 10 homers. After that he was sublime, finishing up with a 2.92 ERA over his last 166.1 innings while walking 31, striking out 133 and allowing 15 homers.
What do the projections expect this season?
2013 Projections - Sabathia
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| cairo | 210 | 206 | 90 | 79 | 21 | 54 | 7 | 186 | 3.83 | 3.37 | 3.42 | 4.5 |
| davenport | 210.3 | 206 | 92 | 90 | 24 | 53 | 7 | 192 | 3.94 | 3.85 | 3.56 | 4.2 |
| marcel | 184 | 174 | 78 | 69 | 18 | 49 | 6 | 172 | 3.82 | 3.38 | 3.35 | 4.0 |
| oliver | 221 | 205 | 92 | 81 | 17 | 55 | 7 | 209 | 3.73 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 5.0 |
| steamer | 219 | 206 | 97 | 86 | 19 | 57 | 7 | 190 | 4.00 | 3.53 | 3.32 | 4.3 |
| zips | 202.3 | 193 | 87 | 81 | 20 | 52 | 3 | 184 | 3.87 | 3.60 | 3.33 | 4.2 |
| average | 208 | 198 | 89 | 81 | 20 | 53 | 6 | 189 | 3.86 | 3.51 | 3.33 | 4.4 |
| 2012 | 200 | 184 | 89 | 75 | 22 | 44 | 8 | 197 | 4.01 | 3.38 | 3.29 | 3.9 |
RA: Runs allowed (earned + unearned) per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
WAR: Wins above replacement (using RA)
Sabathia’s average projection is expecting him to be about a half-win better in 2013.
2013 Projections - Kuroda
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| cairo | 184 | 185 | 85 | 78 | 22 | 45 | 6 | 136 | 4.17 | 3.78 | 3.93 | 3.2 |
| davenport | 193.3 | 195 | 88 | 87 | 25 | 48 | 6 | 156 | 4.10 | 4.05 | 3.96 | 3.5 |
| marcel | 190 | 185 | 80 | 74 | 22 | 50 | 6 | 149 | 3.78 | 3.50 | 3.87 | 4.2 |
| oliver | 204 | 198 | 92 | 85 | 21 | 52 | 6 | 158 | 4.05 | 3.75 | 3.70 | 3.8 |
| steamer | 197 | 201 | 96 | 89 | 20 | 53 | 6 | 138 | 4.40 | 4.07 | 3.87 | 3.0 |
| zips | 186 | 192 | 94 | 88 | 26 | 45 | 3 | 136 | 4.55 | 4.26 | 4.18 | 2.5 |
| average | 193 | 193 | 89 | 83 | 23 | 49 | 6 | 145 | 4.17 | 3.90 | 3.91 | 3.4 |
| 2012 | 219.2 | 205 | 86 | 81 | 25 | 51 | 8 | 167 | 3.53 | 3.33 | 3.82 | 5.4 |
The projections are expecting a big drop with Kuroda this year. His peripherals in 2012 indicate that he may have been a bit lucky but he’s got a career ERA of 3.42 vs. a career FIP of 3.62 and a career BABIP against of .282 (vs. around .304 for league average) so he may have some skill there. Anyway, Kuroda seems to be a unique pitcher. No starter from Japan’s NPB has been able to translate as well as he has in his career, and the fact that he’s done it from ages 33-37 makes it even more impressive.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts - Sabathia
| Percentile | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| 80% | 231 | 211 | 88 | 77 | 18 | 51 | 5 | 220 | 3.43 | 2.99 | 2.87 | 6.0 |
| 65% | 221 | 209 | 89 | 78 | 19 | 53 | 6 | 203 | 3.63 | 3.18 | 3.14 | 5.2 |
| Baseline | 210 | 206 | 90 | 79 | 21 | 54 | 7 | 186 | 3.83 | 3.37 | 3.42 | 4.5 |
| 35% | 168 | 171 | 75 | 67 | 18 | 46 | 7 | 144 | 4.04 | 3.56 | 3.70 | 3.2 |
| 20% | 126 | 132 | 59 | 53 | 15 | 37 | 6 | 104 | 4.24 | 3.75 | 3.97 | 2.1 |
I’m optimistic that CC will be in that 65% area with the removal of the bone spur.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts - Kuroda
| Percentile | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| 80% | 221 | 206 | 91 | 82 | 20 | 46 | 4 | 177 | 3.72 | 3.35 | 3.33 | 5.0 |
| 65% | 203 | 196 | 89 | 80 | 21 | 46 | 5 | 156 | 3.94 | 3.57 | 3.63 | 4.1 |
| Baseline | 184 | 185 | 85 | 78 | 22 | 45 | 6 | 136 | 4.17 | 3.78 | 3.93 | 3.2 |
| 35% | 148 | 154 | 72 | 66 | 19 | 39 | 6 | 104 | 4.39 | 4.00 | 4.24 | 2.2 |
| 20% | 111 | 119 | 57 | 52 | 16 | 31 | 5 | 74 | 4.62 | 4.21 | 4.54 | 1.4 |
I don’t think Kuroda can repeat 2012. I do think he can beat the baseline projection though.
Starting pitching is probably the deepest area on the Yankees, but these are the two key guys. I think Andy Pettitte can approximate Kuroda on a rate basis, but he hasn’t thrown a full season since 2009. If CC can return to something approximating his 2011 form and Kuroda doesn’t lose much from 2012, the Yankees will be able to lose quite a few 1-0 games instead of 2-0 games.
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
NJ.com: Hughes stays on track, while Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera face minor-league action
TAMPA, Fla. – Phil Hughes flinched and raised his head toward the overcast sky. His body language displayed exasperation. Behind a protective screen near the mound, a few coaches exhaled when they saw Hughes was okay.
Just a few minutes into a simulated game at the teams minor-league complex, a comebacker barreled toward the mound and smacked him in the back — the same area of his body that got him into this mess in the first place.
“I wasn’t expecting that,” Hughes said yesterday with a smile after a 41-pitch excursion broken up into two innings. “It’s a good test for me, I guess.”
Hughes completed his assignment without any lingering discomfort from the bulging disk in his upper back, which he’s been treating for much of spring training. Both manager Joe Girardi and pitching coach Larry Rothschild expressed optimism about Hughes’ performance. Rothschild indicated Hughes’ velocity looked “pretty firm,” while Girardi noted Hughes’ ability to settle down during his second inning.
Hughes is pretty low on the list of injury concerns in my opinion. Even if he’s going to miss a few starts at the beginning of the year, the rotation is pretty much the only place where the Yankees have the depth to deal with an injury or two.
Saturday, February 16, 2013
ESPN: CC Sabathia: 29 pitches off mound
“I immediately felt good and felt comfortable after the first couple of pitches,’’ he said. “I was excited to be back up there on the mound.’‘
Sabathia limited his repertoire to fastballs and changeups—he normally does not throw any breaking balls in his first bullpen of any spring training—and gave catcher Francisco Arcia a workout on several deliveries that skipped in the dirt in front of home plate.
But it wasn’t command or pinpoint control Sabathia was looking for, merely the absence of pain.
“Just playing catch I could feel the difference,’’ he said. “It felt even better out on the mound.’‘
Although he denied it during last season, Sabathia was plagued by pain in his pitching elbow for much of last season, a condition that might have contributed to his diminished effectiveness in the second half, when he lost three of his last five regular-season starts and got bombed in the decisive Game 4 of the ALCS against the Detroit Tigers.
The flat ground team’s hopes are dashed.
Sunday, January 6, 2013
SI.com: Yankees reliever Mariano Rivera says knee is about 95 percent
New York Yankees reliever Mariano Rivera is scheduled to start throwing again in a week and also says his rehabbed knee is about 95 percent, reports MLB.com.
Rivera, 43, suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament and a torn meniscus in his right knee in May and signed a one-year, $10 million deal to return to the Yankees earlier this offseason.
Mo at 95% is still better than most closers at 110%.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Fangraphs: Velocity Trends and Pitchers to Watch in 2013
I’ve written quite a bit this year about pitcher aging — specifically, trends in velocity loss for pitchers. There are two general findings that I want to revisit today and apply to pitchers from 2012; the predictive power of velocity loss in July and end of season velocity, and the impact of losing velocity in one season on next season’s velocity.
First, a pitcher’s velocity will tend to vary throughout the year. Trying to get a read on whether a pitcher is having trouble velocity-wise during a season is difficult if you simply compare to last year’s overall velocity. So I compared a pitcher’s velocity in each month to their velocity the previous year in that same month and found that pitchers who lose at least 1 mph of velocity in July are 13.7 times more likely to finish the entire year down at least 1 mph.
Second, 91% of pitchers that do finish a season down at least 1 mph compared to the previous season will lose additional velocity the following season (average decline of 1.6 mph), with only 7% regaining some (but, likely, not all) of that velocity back.
Pitcher/Diff
Tim Hudson/-2.5
Roy Halladay/-1.8
Tim Lincecum/-1.8
Josh Beckett/-1.6
Jeremy Affeldt/-1.5
Bartolo Colon/-1.5
Sean Burnett/-1.5
Tommy Hanson/-1.5
Sergio Romo/-1.5
Erik Bedard/-1.5
Clay Hensley/-1.4
CC Sabathia/-1.4
Kenley Jansen/-1.4
Barry Zito/-1.4
Jered Weaver/-1.4
Ubaldo Jimenez/-1.3
Bobby Parnell/-1.3
Jonny Venters/-1.2
Matt Belisle/-1.2
Everett Teaford/-1.2
Brandon League/-1.2
Joel Hanrahan/-1.2
Derek Holland/-1.2
Mark Buehrle/-1.2
Edwin Jackson/-1.1
Matt Lindstrom/-1.1
Jonathan Papelbon/-1.1
Matt Thornton/-1.1
Alex Cobb/-1.1
Ervin Santana/-1
R.A. Dickey/-1
Ryan Dempster/-1
Yovani Gallardo/-0.9
James McDonald/-0.9
Felix Hernandez/-0.9
Vinnie Pestano/-0.9
Rafael Betancourt/-0.9
David Robertson/-0.9
Doug Fister/-0.9
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Biggest Postseason ERA+ Mismatches since 2000
Baseball Reference tracks a stat they call ERA+. It’s basically an index of a pitcher’s ERA relative to the league, adjusted for park and run environment. The higher the ERA+, the better the pitcher was in preventing earned runs. For example, the best ERA+ of any pitcher in MLB history who has pitched at least 1000 innings belongs to Mariano Rivera.
In 2012, Justin Verlander had an ERA+ of 160. Phil Hughes had an ERA+ of 99. The gap between them was 61 points of ERA+.
ERA+ isn’t a perfect way to compare two pitchers since ERA can be impacted by a player’s defensive support and bullpen. It also applies a single park factor to a pitcher but not all pitchers are necessarily impacted by their park in the same way. But it’s good enough for what I was curious about, which is the biggest gap between two starting pitchers facing each other in a postseason game. I went back to 2000 and figured out the difference in regular season ERA+ for every postseason pitching matchup. I restricted this to only pitchers who made at least 20 starts in the regular season where they got a postseason start to deal with possible sample size issues.
Here is the list of all the games matching that criteria with a gap of at least 40 points.
| Date | Pitcher 1 | Team | ERA+ | Pitcher 2 | Team | ERA+ | Diff | Result |
| 10/15/2005 | Roger Clemens | HOU | 226 | Matt Morris | STL | 103 | 123 | W |
| 10/22/2005 | Roger Clemens | HOU | 226 | Jose Contreras | CHW | 125 | 101 | L |
| 10/4/2008 | Rich Harden | CHC | 210 | Hiroki Kuroda | LAD | 112 | 98 | L |
| 10/16/2003 | Pedro Martinez | BOS | 211 | Roger Clemens | NYY | 113 | 98 | L |
| 10/11/2003 | Pedro Martinez | BOS | 211 | Roger Clemens | NYY | 113 | 98 | L |
| 10/9/2004 | Johan Santana | MIN | 182 | Javier Vazquez | NYY | 92 | 90 | L |
| 10/6/2005 | Roger Clemens | HOU | 226 | John Smoltz | ATL | 139 | 87 | L |
| 10/10/2001 | Randy Johnson | ARI | 188 | Woody Williams | STL | 101 | 87 | L |
| 10/5/2004 | Johan Santana | MIN | 182 | Mike Mussina | NYY | 98 | 84 | W |
| 10/14/2003 | Mark Prior | CHC | 179 | Carl Pavano | FLA | 98 | 81 | L |
| 10/1/2002 | Randy Johnson | ARI | 195 | Matt Morris | STL | 117 | 78 | L |
| 10/8/2003 | Mark Prior | CHC | 179 | Brad Penny | FLA | 102 | 77 | W |
| 10/6/2003 | Pedro Martinez | BOS | 211 | Barry Zito | OAK | 135 | 76 | W |
| 11/3/2001 | Randy Johnson | ARI | 188 | Andy Pettitte | NYY | 112 | 76 | W |
| 10/28/2001 | Randy Johnson | ARI | 188 | Andy Pettitte | NYY | 112 | 76 | W |
| 10/5/2003 | Tim Hudson | OAK | 165 | John Burkett | BOS | 91 | 74 | L |
| 10/3/2003 | Mark Prior | CHC | 179 | Greg Maddux | ATL | 108 | 71 | W |
| 10/21/2001 | Randy Johnson | ARI | 188 | Tom Glavine | ATL | 125 | 63 | W |
| 10/2/2008 | CC Sabathia | MIL | 156 | Brett Myers | PHI | 96 | 60 | L |
| 10/7/2010 | C.J. Wilson | TEX | 134 | James Shields | TBR | 75 | 59 | W |
| 10/7/2009 | Chris Carpenter | STL | 182 | Randy Wolf | LAD | 124 | 58 | L |
| 10/24/2004 | Curt Schilling | BOS | 148 | Matt Morris | STL | 90 | 58 | W |
| 10/5/2005 | Andy Pettitte | HOU | 177 | Tim Hudson | ATL | 121 | 56 | W |
| 10/7/2011 | Roy Halladay | PHI | 163 | Chris Carpenter | STL | 108 | 55 | L |
| 10/1/2011 | Roy Halladay | PHI | 163 | Kyle Lohse | STL | 109 | 54 | W |
| 10/21/2010 | Roy Halladay | PHI | 167 | Tim Lincecum | SFG | 114 | 53 | W |
| 10/16/2010 | Roy Halladay | PHI | 167 | Tim Lincecum | SFG | 114 | 53 | L |
| 10/5/2002 | Tim Hudson | OAK | 145 | Eric Milton | MIN | 92 | 53 | L |
| 10/10/2001 | Tom Glavine | ATL | 125 | Dave Mlicki | HOU | 72 | 53 | W |
| 10/2/2011 | Cliff Lee | PHI | 160 | Chris Carpenter | STL | 108 | 52 | L |
| 10/5/2004 | Curt Schilling | BOS | 148 | Jarrod Washburn | ANA | 96 | 52 | W |
| 10/20/2001 | Greg Maddux | ATL | 146 | Albie Lopez | ARI | 94 | 52 | L |
| 10/6/2002 | Tom Glavine | ATL | 140 | Livan Hernandez | SFG | 89 | 51 | L |
| 10/12/2004 | Curt Schilling | BOS | 148 | Mike Mussina | NYY | 98 | 50 | L |
| 10/1/2002 | Tim Hudson | OAK | 145 | Brad Radke | MIN | 95 | 50 | L |
| 10/11/2002 | Jarrod Washburn | ANA | 141 | Eric Milton | MIN | 92 | 49 | W |
| 10/20/2009 | CC Sabathia | NYY | 137 | Scott Kazmir | LAA | 89 | 48 | W |
| 10/27/2006 | Justin Verlander | DET | 125 | Jeff Weaver | STL | 78 | 47 | L |
| 10/5/2002 | Greg Maddux | ATL | 159 | Jason Schmidt | SFG | 112 | 47 | W |
| 10/15/2009 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | 143 | Cole Hamels | PHI | 97 | 46 | L |
| 10/3/2006 | Johan Santana | MIN | 162 | Barry Zito | OAK | 116 | 46 | L |
| 10/1/2003 | Pedro Martinez | BOS | 211 | Tim Hudson | OAK | 165 | 46 | L |
| 10/11/2012 | Justin Verlander | DET | 158 | Jarrod Parker | OAK | 113 | 45 | W |
| 10/6/2012 | Justin Verlander | DET | 158 | Jarrod Parker | OAK | 113 | 45 | W |
| 10/3/2006 | Chris Carpenter | STL | 144 | Jake Peavy | SDP | 99 | 45 | W |
| 10/11/2007 | Brandon Webb | ARI | 158 | Jeff Francis | COL | 114 | 44 | L |
| 10/19/2004 | Curt Schilling | BOS | 148 | Jon Lieber | NYY | 104 | 44 | W |
| 10/21/2004 | Roger Clemens | HOU | 145 | Jeff Suppan | STL | 102 | 43 | L |
| 10/16/2004 | Roger Clemens | HOU | 145 | Jeff Suppan | STL | 102 | 43 | W |
| 10/16/2000 | Mike Hampton | NYM | 142 | Pat Hentgen | STL | 99 | 43 | W |
| 10/12/2011 | Matt Harrison | TEX | 129 | Rick Porcello | DET | 87 | 42 | W |
| 10/5/2005 | Mark Buehrle | CHW | 144 | David Wells | BOS | 102 | 42 | W |
| 9/30/2003 | Jason Schmidt | SFG | 180 | Josh Beckett | FLA | 138 | 42 | W |
| 10/16/2001 | Randy Johnson | ARI | 188 | Greg Maddux | ATL | 146 | 42 | W |
| 10/24/2011 | C.J. Wilson | TEX | 149 | Chris Carpenter | STL | 108 | 41 | W |
| 10/19/2011 | C.J. Wilson | TEX | 149 | Chris Carpenter | STL | 108 | 41 | L |
| 10/3/2007 | Brandon Webb | ARI | 158 | Carlos Zambrano | CHC | 117 | 41 | W |
| 10/10/2004 | Roger Clemens | HOU | 145 | Russ Ortiz | ATL | 104 | 41 | L |
| 10/12/2012 | Gio Gonzalez | WSN | 137 | Adam Wainwright | STL | 97 | 40 | L |
| 10/7/2012 | Gio Gonzalez | WSN | 137 | Adam Wainwright | STL | 97 | 40 | W |
| 10/11/2011 | Doug Fister | DET | 139 | Colby Lewis | TEX | 99 | 40 | W |
| 10/8/2010 | Roy Oswalt | PHI | 145 | Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 105 | 40 | W |
| 10/22/2006 | Kenny Rogers | DET | 118 | Jeff Weaver | STL | 78 | 40 | W |
| 10/19/2006 | Jeff Suppan | STL | 108 | Oliver Perez | NYM | 68 | 40 | W |
| 10/4/2002 | Barry Zito | OAK | 158 | Rick Reed | MIN | 118 | 40 | W |
| 10/12/2001 | John Burkett | ATL | 147 | Shane Reynolds | HOU | 107 | 40 | W |
The result column is for the team with the pitcher who had the higher ERA+. For example, even though Roger Clemens had an ERA+ 101 points better than Jose Contreras when they matched up on October 22, 2005, Contreras’s team won.
The team that had the edge in ERA+ won 37 of the 66 games in this list. What is really peculiar is that if you restrict the gap to 50 ERA+ points or more they only won 15 of 35. Restrict it to 60 and it’s 8 of 19.
So this means Phil Hughes and the Yankees should have a 57-58% chance of winning tonight. Yay!
Obviously it doesn’t mean that. It just means that a Yankee win tonight wouldn’t be the strangest thing to happen in a postseason game. Maybe tonight will turn out like CC Sabathia (ERA+ of 156) vs. Brett Myers (ERA+ of 96) in 2008. We can hope, right?
Friday, September 21, 2012
Yankees.com: Martin’s walk-off HR keeps Yanks alone in first
NEW YORK—As Russell Martin galloped down the third-base line, taking a moment to see how far he could possibly fling his batting helmet, the Yankees clustered at home plate to celebrate what most agreed was their biggest hit of the season.
The schedule is growing thin, the games are becoming more crucial, and the Yankees went home with exactly what they needed on this night. Martin’s 10th-inning blast was the game-winner, lifting New York to a 2-1 victory over the Athletics on Friday at Yankee Stadium.
“There’s pressure, but it’s fun; it’s a fun atmosphere,” Martin said. “There’s a lot of energy in the crowd, you can feel the weather change a little bit. Playoff weather is coming. I like it. I enjoy it. I’m ready for it.”
No kneeling tonight.
I didn’t see much of CC’s performance but it looks like he had a heck of a night. Apparently, it’s too much to ask the Red Sox to play the Orioles hard this weekend. I guess they’re saving themselves for the last series of the season in the Bronx.
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
2012 Blown Saves by Yankees
| Player | Date | Opp | Rslt | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | boxscore |
| Mariano Rivera | 4/6/2012 | TBR | L 6-7 | 0.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 04/06 |
| David Robertson | 5/9/2012 | TBR | L 1-4 | 0.2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 05/09 |
| Rafael Soriano | 6/10/2012 | NYM | W 5-4 | 0.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 06/10 |
| Cory Wade | 6/16/2012 | WSN | W 5-3 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 06/16 |
| Cory Wade | 6/24/2012 | NYM | W 6-5 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 06/24 |
| Clay Rapada | 6/27/2012 | CLE | W 5-4 | 0.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 06/27 |
| David Robertson | 6/28/2012 | CHW | L 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 06/28 |
| David Robertson | 7/2/2012 | TBR | L 3-4 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 07/02 |
| Rafael Soriano | 7/22/2012 | OAK | L 4-5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 07/22 |
| Boone Logan | 8/16/2012 | TEX | L 6-10 | 0.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 08/16 |
| Rafael Soriano | 8/27/2012 | TOR | L 7-8 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 08/27 |
Thursday, August 23, 2012
NorthJersey: Sabathia says he is on track to start Friday
CC Sabathia declared he was ready to return to the rotation Friday, following Tuesday’s normal between-starts bullpen session. The lefty ace missed two starts due to elbow inflammation and is eligible to be activated from the disabled list in time for Friday night’s start at Cleveland.
The Yankee starters haven’t been that bad overall since CC’s last start. Over 14 games and 89 innings (6.36 IP/G) they have a collective RA of 4.35, a collective ERA of 3.94 and a FIP of 4.10. Take out Ivan Nova and those drop to 3.99, 3.47 and 4.03 respectively. That being said, the Yankees need a dominant Sabathia back if they want to have any chance of holding off Tampa Bay and perhaps winning a postseason game. CC’s underwhelmed this year, but he’s still got time to make up for that.
For whatever it’s worth, here’s how many innings Sabathia’s had as of August 24 of each season in pinstripes.
2009: 185.1
2010: 187.2
2011: 205.0
He’s at 141 innings this year, and I’m hoping that it means he’ll have more in the tank by the end of the regular season. In his career, Sabathia’s best pitching has come in August(3.29 ERA) and September(2.82 ERA), so it’d be cool if September played the role of August and October played the role of September this year.
Thursday, August 16, 2012
A Tale of Two Freddys
| Dates | g | ip | bf | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | so | ra | era | fip | xfip |
| 04/10/12-04/28/12 | 4 | 13.7 | 70 | 25 | 20 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 13.17 | 12.51 | 5.64 | 4.15 |
| 07/02/12-08/15/12 | 9 | 53.7 | 221 | 53 | 22 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 41 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 4.27 | 3.88 |
| Dates | bb/bf | k/bf | babip | ld% | gb% | fb% | iffb% | hr/fb% | swing% | contact% | FBv |
| 04/10/12-04/28/12 | 8.6% | 15.7% | .431 | 40.7% | 31.5% | 24.1% | 3.7% | 23.1% | 14.0% | 89.7% | 86.8 |
| 07/02/12-08/15/12 | 6.3% | 18.6% | .276 | 24.0% | 38.0% | 33.9% | 4.1% | 13.8% | 39.9% | 78.6% | 87.4 |
fip: Fielding-independent pitching
xfip: Expected fielding-independent pitching
bb/bf: walks and hbp per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
babip: Batting average on balls in play against
ld%: Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
gb%: Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
fb%: Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
iffb%: Percentage of batted balls that were infield flies
hr/fb%: Percentage of fly balls that were home runs
swing%: Percentage of pitches swung at
contact%: Percentage of swings that made contact
FBv: Average fastball velocity
Patience is a virtue.
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
MLB.com: Though under the radar, Kuroda overachieving
NEW YORK—In retrospect, it should have been obvious. Hiroki Kuroda is practically built to pitch in the American League, and even in the American League East.
He’s big and he’s durable. He’s calm and in command on the mound. He throws strikes with four pitches. He gets left-handers out, along with righties. He has plenty of stuff, even if he doesn’t light up the radar gun in the mid-90s. And he’s seen the big stage on numerous occasions.
So while many Yankees fans derided or dismissed the addition of another National League pitcher this winter, and relegated Kuroda to the back of a big-name starting five, the truth all along was that general manager Brian Cashman had made a tremendously shrewd acquisition. The fact that Kuroda signed a one-year deal at a relatively reasonable $10 million was just a bonus.
When I looked at Kuroda’s projections for 2012 I figured he would end up as the Yankees’ third or fourth starter this year. That was mostly based on his baseline 4.01 CAIRO projected ERA and average 4.08 projected ERA. It was also partially based on my misguided notion that one or both of Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova would take a step forward this year.
The NL->AL transition is usually worth about 0.50 runs per nine innings, so you figured that even if Kuroda pitched to his career level of a 3.45 ERA he’d be closer to a 4.00 ERA in 2012. His strikeout rate has dipped a bit as you’d expect since he’s lost the advantage of throwing to pitchers instead of competent big league hitters but everything else has been remarkably stable from his time with the Dodgers. His HR/FB rate is a bit higher than last year (11.5% vs. 11.3%) but that’s to be expected.
Kuroda’s 80% CAIRO forecast called for an ERA of 3.57 and he’s even blowing that away.
FIP and xFIP think his ERA overstates his effectiveness by about .6 runs (3.71 FIP and 3.69 xFIP), but Kuroda has always had a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) against a bit lower than league average. We don’t know if that’s skill because the sample size for ascertaining the ability to suppress BABIP against takes thousands of BIP. But it’s at least some evidence that he may possess said skill.
I know CC Sabathia is CC Sabathia, but Kuroda’s been the Yankees’ best starter this year and I don’t think it’s all that close.
And yes, I realize by writing this I’ve doomed him to a collapse. Sorry.
Update: For the hell of it, some selective end point stuff.
| Dates | g | ip | bf | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | so | ra | era | fip | xfip |
| 04/07/12-05/21/12 | 9 | 53.3 | 233 | 59 | 30 | 27 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 34 | 5.06 | 4.56 | 5.42 | 4.35 |
| 05/27/12-08/14/12 | 15 | 105.7 | 410 | 86 | 28 | 27 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 87 | 2.38 | 2.30 | 2.82 | 3.16 |
| Dates | bb/bf | k/bf | babip | ld% | gb% | fb% | iffb% | hr/fb% | swing% | contact% | FBv |
| 04/07/12-05/21/12 | 9.0% | 14.6% | .287 | 21.0% | 48.6% | 28.2% | 2.2% | 19.6% | 30.0% | 81.6% | 91.2 |
| 05/27/12-08/14/12 | 5.6% | 21.2% | .267 | 16.3% | 51.3% | 28.8% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 47.1% | 83.0% | 91.7 |
fip: Fielding-independent pitching
xfip: Expected fielding-independent pitching
bb/bf: walks and hbp per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
babip: Batting average on balls in play against
ld%: Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
gb%: Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
fb%: Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
iffb%: Percentage of batted balls that were infield flies
FBv: Average fastball velocity
swing%: Percentage of pitches swung at
contact%: Percentage of swings that made contact
Monday, August 13, 2012
Just When I Thought I Was In, He Pulled Me Back Out
After beating Baltimore on August 1 in a start that was effective if not overly impressive, Phil Hughes dropped his ERA for the season to 3.96. Considering it stood at 7.88 heading into May it sure seemed like Hughes had turned the corner and was on his way to becoming at least a reasonable facsimile of the pitcher we’d all hoped he’d be. Then came an awful start against the Tigers on August 7. The Tigers have some dangerous hitters and even the best pitchers have the occasional bad game so it was easy to write that one off as just one of those days.
Yesterday’s game is a lot harder to deal with. Against a team that was effectively the equivalent of a AAA team with one MLB hitter on a rehab assignment, Hughes crapped the bed. I don’t know how you give up seven runs and nine hits in four innings to the lineup that the Blue Jays ran out there yesterday, but Hughes managed to do it. I suppose it means we can give Ivan Nova a bit more credit for pitching well against a similar lineup, but that doesn’t really make me feel any better about Hughes.
It may just be a dead arm period or he may just be having some mechanical issues that he can fix, but I’m back to doubting how effective Hughes can be as a starter over the rest of this season. Am I wrong for thinking that?
Thursday, August 2, 2012
Selective Endpoint Fun with Phil Hughes
| Dates | g | ip | bf | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | so | ra | era | fip | xfip |
| 04/08/12-04/25/12 | 4 | 16.0 | 81 | 24 | 18 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 10.13 | 7.88 | 6.52 | 4.58 |
| 05/01/12-08/01/12 | 17 | 111.3 | 458 | 105 | 44 | 42 | 20 | 25 | 1 | 92 | 3.56 | 3.40 | 4.46 | 4.22 |
| Dates | bb/bf | k/bf | babip | ld% | gb% | fb% | iffb% | hr/fb% | FB% | FBv |
| 04/08/12-04/25/12 | 9.9% | 21.0% | .345 | 16.7% | 28.3% | 46.7% | 8.3% | 17.9% | 60.7% | 91.8 |
| 05/01/12-08/01/12 | 5.7% | 20.1% | .248 | 17.6% | 29.8% | 45.5% | 7.2% | 12.1% | 63.2% | 92.5 |
fip: Fielding-independent pitching
xfip: Expected fielding-independent pitching
bb/bf: walks and hbp per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
babip: Batting average on balls in play against
ld%: Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
gb%: Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
fb%: Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
iffb%: Percentage of batted balls that were infield flies
FB%: Percentage of fastballs thrown
FBv: Average fastball velocity
The number that surprises me here the most is the HR/FB rate since May 1. It’s approaching league average, which I suppose is what we should have expected, but it’s still surprising to me. Especially given the disgraceful place he pitches half his games in. He’s going to keep giving up homers when he’s giving up so many fly balls, but giving up a lot of fly balls isn’t necessarily a terrible thing.
The big question with how sustainable Hughes’s run over the last three months is has to be his BABIP against. FIP and xFIP say that if that regresses he’ll be about 3/4 of a run worse per 9 innings pitched going forward. There is some variability in ability to control BABIP against pitchers, but it’s generally small and hard to separate out from random variation over small sample sizes. Hughes has been better than league average in that area in his career (.285 vs. around .302 for the league) and is at .280 this year. So we have some evidence it may be a skill, but not enough to be certain. The fact that he’s a fly ball pitcher supports a lower BABIP against, because fly balls are more likely to be outs.
I’m happy to see Hughes turning into a pretty reliable starter. I was skeptical that it would happen, and I probably would have moved him into the bullpen after his April. That the Yankees didn’t is a credit to them, something we don’t necessarily give them enough of some times.
Thursday, July 12, 2012
2012 Yankee Relief Pitcher Projections vs. Actuals at the All Star Break
Wrapping up my All Star Break look at the Yankees performance compared to projections is the bullpen.
Freddy Garcia started the year in the rotation but had awful results and was moved to the bullpen. With CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte out of action, Garcia was moved back into the rotation where he’s had two solid starts against the teams that are probably the Yankees’ biggest rivals this year, Tampa Bay and Boston.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 43 | 47 | 22 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 27 | 4.55 | 4.28 | 4.28 | 6 | 0.6 |
| davenport | 43 | 46 | 24 | 24 | 6 | 13 | 24 | 5.12 | 4.96 | 4.73 | 3 | 0.3 |
| marcel | 43 | 45 | 21 | 19 | 5 | 13 | 28 | 4.36 | 4.06 | 4.19 | 7 | 0.7 |
| oliver | 43 | 48 | 23 | 22 | 5 | 12 | 25 | 4.84 | 4.50 | 4.31 | 4 | 0.4 |
| pecota | 43 | 48 | 25 | 23 | 6 | 13 | 28 | 5.13 | 4.78 | 4.40 | 3 | 0.3 |
| steamer | 43 | 46 | 23 | 22 | 6 | 11 | 26 | 4.88 | 4.54 | 4.41 | 4 | 0.4 |
| zips | 43 | 48 | 25 | 23 | 6 | 13 | 25 | 5.20 | 4.85 | 4.64 | 3 | 0.3 |
| average | 43 | 47 | 23 | 22 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 4.87 | 4.57 | 4.42 | 4 | 0.4 |
| 2012 | 43 | 48 | 27 | 25 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 5.65 | 5.23 | 4.09 | 0 | 0.0 |
| diff | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 6 | 0.78 | 0.67 | -0.33 | -4 | -0.4 |
Garcia’s actually got a better walk rate and strike out rate than projected although that’s likely due to pitching out of the bullpen for much of the season. According to FIP, Garcia’s actually pitched about as well overall as he did last year when he was a surprisingly effective starter for most of the season. Again, the fact that the most of his 2012 innings are out of the pen means he’d probably be a bit less effective as a full-time starter, but I think I’m comfortable in saying he isn’t nearly as bad as he looked in April and can probably keep the Yankees in most games as a starter if needed. I’d assume he’ll be the one to stay in the rotation over David Phelps when CC comes back, with Phelps going back to AAA to remain stretched out as a starter. That could obviously change if he starts to pitch poorly again.
Speaking of David Phelps, here is how he’s done compared to his projections so far.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 41 | 50 | 25 | 24 | 6 | 14 | 24 | 5.58 | 5.16 | 4.77 | 1 | 0.1 |
| oliver | 41 | 46 | 22 | 21 | 5 | 12 | 28 | 4.91 | 4.54 | 4.16 | 4 | 0.4 |
| pecota | 41 | 48 | 25 | 24 | 6 | 16 | 26 | 5.58 | 5.16 | 4.65 | 4 | 0.4 |
| steamer | 41 | 43 | 22 | 21 | 5 | 13 | 27 | 4.87 | 4.50 | 4.11 | 7 | 0.7 |
| zips | 41 | 50 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 13 | 25 | 5.77 | 5.40 | 4.63 | 6 | 0.6 |
| average | 41 | 47 | 24 | 23 | 5 | 13 | 26 | 5.34 | 4.95 | 4.46 | 4 | 0.4 |
| average relief | 41 | 40 | 20 | 19 | 5 | 13 | 30 | 4.49 | 4.16 | 4.00 | 9 | 0.9 |
| 2012 | 41 | 37 | 15 | 14 | 6 | 17 | 42 | 3.29 | 3.07 | 4.32 | 11 | 1.1 |
| diff Starter | -10 | -9 | -9 | 1 | 4 | 16 | -2.05 | -1.88 | -0.15 | 7 | 0.7 | |
| diff Reliever | -8 | -4 | -4 | -1 | 0 | 4 | -0.85 | -0.79 | -0.46 | 5 | 0.5 |
Phelps was originally projected as a starter, so I’ve done a conversion of his average 2012 projection to relief. He’s still been more effective than projected looking at that, although his FIP is a bit worse thanks to one extra HR allowed. He’s probably heading for a regression in his BABIP, but if he can keep his FIP in the 4.3-4.5 range he’s probably a viable back-end starter for the Yankees. Because of that, I’d assume he’ll go back to the minors to start regularly when CC comes back, with an eye on bringing him back whenever the rotation needs him.
Cody Eppley wasn’t expected to be part of the Yankee bullpen when the season started, but he’s now thrown 23 mostly good innings.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 23 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 5.20 | 4.85 | 4.61 | 1 | 0.1 |
| marcel | 23 | 22 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 4.55 | 4.25 | 4.41 | 3 | 0.3 |
| oliver | 23 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 4.68 | 4.37 | 4.10 | 3 | 0.3 |
| pecota | 23 | 24 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 4.98 | 4.65 | 4.25 | 2 | 0.2 |
| steamer | 23 | 24 | 13 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 4.90 | 4.57 | 4.22 | 2 | 0.2 |
| zips | 23 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 4.80 | 4.52 | 4.47 | 2 | 0.2 |
| average | 23 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 4.85 | 4.53 | 4.22 | 2 | 0.2 |
| 2012 | 23 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 14 | 2.74 | 2.74 | 3.78 | 8 | 0.8 |
| diff | -4 | -5 | -5 | -2 | 1 | -4 | -2.11 | -1.80 | -0.44 | 5 | 0.5 |
His peripherals are lackluster and his FIP is buoyed by pretty low HR rate. I don’t think he’s as good as his RA/ERA so far this year, but he’s fine as a middle reliever.
Much like Eppley, Clay Rapada wasn’t really expected to be a major part of the Yankee bullpen but he’s thrown 24 innings.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 24 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 19 | 4.63 | 4.35 | 4.25 | 3 | 0.3 |
| davenport | 24 | 23 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 4.63 | 4.63 | 4.17 | 3 | 0.3 |
| marcel | 24 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 4.50 | 4.24 | 4.12 | 3 | 0.3 |
| oliver | 24 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 4.43 | 4.17 | 3.84 | 4 | 0.4 |
| pecota | 24 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 4.31 | 4.06 | 3.92 | 4 | 0.4 |
| steamer | 24 | 25 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 4.97 | 4.68 | 4.44 | 2 | 0.2 |
| zips | 24 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 4.60 | 4.40 | 4.18 | 3 | 0.3 |
| average | 24 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 4.58 | 4.36 | 4.13 | 3 | 0.3 |
| 2012 | 24 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 3.37 | 2.62 | 3.37 | 6 | 0.6 |
| diff | -10 | -3 | -5 | -2 | 4 | 4 | -1.22 | -1.74 | -0.76 | 3 | 0.3 |
Regular numbers like RA/ERA/FIP for someone like Rapada aren’t all that useful because he’s more of a tactical option to use for facing a specific batter or two and his value is heavily dependent on the base/out situations he’s used in. Rapada’s faced 70 LHB and has held them to a line of .150/.246/.217. It’d be cool if he walked fewer of them, but it’s tough to quibble with that overall performance. If only he’d made that double play…
Cory Wade came out of nowhere to have a strong 2011 and he started 2012 out the same way after an ugly spring training. Then the wheels came off.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 33 | 33 | 16 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 4.44 | 4.08 | 4.31 | 5 | 0.5 |
| davenport | 33 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.01 | 5 | 0.5 |
| marcel | 33 | 31 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 3.80 | 3.40 | 3.89 | 7 | 0.7 |
| oliver | 33 | 34 | 17 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 4.57 | 4.09 | 4.05 | 4 | 0.4 |
| pecota | 33 | 32 | 16 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 24 | 4.31 | 3.86 | 4.16 | 5 | 0.5 |
| steamer | 33 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 4.91 | 4.39 | 4.35 | 3 | 0.3 |
| zips | 33 | 36 | 18 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 4.92 | 4.61 | 4.37 | 3 | 0.3 |
| average | 33 | 33 | 16 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 4.48 | 4.12 | 4.16 | 5 | 0.5 |
| 2012 | 33 | 42 | 25 | 24 | 6 | 8 | 34 | 6.81 | 6.54 | 4.12 | -4 | -0.4 |
| diff | 9 | 9 | 9 | 2 | -1 | 11 | 2.33 | 2.42 | -0.04 | -9 | -0.9 |
I have no idea what’s up with Wade, and I have no idea if he’s lost his ability to be an effective pitcher in MLB. His FIP is fine, his walk rate and K rate are good, but he’s getting hit hard. While we generally expect FIP to be a better predictor going forward, it’s entirely possible Wade has lost the ability to limit hits on balls in play to some extent. He’ll probably be pitching in AAA trying to figure things out and won’t be called up again if he doesn’t. I hope he does because I like watching him pitch when he’s effective.
Boone Logan’s been mostly good this year, but has struggled a bit recently.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 31 | 32 | 15 | 13 | 3 | 12 | 30 | 4.29 | 3.76 | 3.71 | 5 | 0.5 |
| davenport | 31 | 28 | 14 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 3.93 | 3.93 | 3.70 | 6 | 0.6 |
| marcel | 31 | 30 | 14 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 28 | 4.14 | 3.60 | 3.70 | 6 | 0.6 |
| oliver | 31 | 30 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 4.68 | 4.07 | 3.58 | 4 | 0.4 |
| pecota | 31 | 32 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 28 | 5.09 | 4.43 | 3.92 | 2 | 0.2 |
| steamer | 31 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 29 | 4.40 | 3.83 | 3.81 | 5 | 0.5 |
| zips | 31 | 30 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 31 | 4.10 | 3.91 | 3.75 | 6 | 0.6 |
| average | 31 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 28 | 4.38 | 3.93 | 3.74 | 5 | 0.5 |
| 2012 | 31 | 28 | 13 | 13 | 4 | 14 | 41 | 3.77 | 3.77 | 3.48 | 7 | 0.7 |
| diff | -2 | -2 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | -0.60 | -0.16 | -0.25 | 2 | 0.2 |
He’s still outpitching his projections, notably the big jump in strikeout rate. He’s still a bit of an adventure at times, but I am comfortable he’ll be mostly good over the rest of the year.
Expecting a repeat of 2011 for David Robertson was not realistic. Robertson’s been fine, although we’re now hearing he doesn’t have a closer’s mentality because of two blown saves.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 24 | 20 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 2.96 | 2.77 | 2.84 | 6 | 0.6 |
| davenport | 24 | 19 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 27 | 4.02 | 3.88 | 3.60 | 3 | 0.3 |
| marcel | 24 | 20 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 3.20 | 2.92 | 3.11 | 5 | 0.5 |
| oliver | 24 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 3.72 | 3.40 | 2.98 | 4 | 0.4 |
| pecota | 24 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 3.43 | 3.13 | 3.08 | 5 | 0.5 |
| steamer | 24 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 29 | 3.40 | 3.11 | 3.24 | 5 | 0.5 |
| zips | 24 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 32 | 3.34 | 3.06 | 3.01 | 5 | 0.5 |
| average | 24 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 3.44 | 3.18 | 3.12 | 5 | 0.5 |
| 2012 | 24 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 40 | 2.99 | 2.62 | 2.25 | 6 | 0.6 |
| diff | 0 | -1 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -0.45 | -0.56 | -0.87 | 1 | 0.1 |
Robertson’s outpitched his projections, and his FIP indicates he’s actually been more effective than his RA/ERA show. I still think he’s the best reliever in the non-Mo Yankee bullpen, whether he’s the anointed closer or not.
I don’t know if I ever mentioned how I felt about the Rafael Soriano signing. Anyway, with Mariano Rivera likely out for the rest of 2012, Soriano’s become the closer.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 33 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 4 | 12 | 31 | 3.82 | 3.60 | 3.64 | 5 | 0.5 |
| davenport | 33 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 3.75 | 3.60 | 3.71 | 5 | 0.5 |
| marcel | 33 | 28 | 14 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 30 | 3.71 | 3.35 | 3.59 | 5 | 0.5 |
| oliver | 33 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 3.86 | 3.49 | 3.57 | 5 | 0.5 |
| pecota | 33 | 26 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 35 | 3.26 | 2.94 | 3.34 | 7 | 0.7 |
| steamer | 33 | 31 | 15 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 30 | 4.16 | 3.77 | 4.02 | 4 | 0.4 |
| zips | 33 | 26 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 39 | 3.43 | 3.14 | 3.04 | 6 | 0.6 |
| average | 33 | 28 | 14 | 13 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 3.71 | 3.41 | 3.56 | 5 | 0.5 |
| 2012 | 33 | 30 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 15 | 34 | 1.63 | 1.63 | 2.30 | 13 | 1.3 |
| diff | 2 | -8 | -7 | -4 | 4 | 2 | -2.08 | -1.78 | -1.25 | 8 | 0.8 |
Soriano’s been rock solid as the closer, putting up a Rivera-like ERA. He’s allowing a lot more base runners than Mo does, but so far that hasn’t hurt him. I’d prefer not to see him allowing two base runners to reach every inning, but aside from that I have no qualms with his work so far. I’d expect him to be closer to that 2.30 FIP going forward, but there’s nothing wrong with that.
A few odds calls aside, Joe Girardi’s managed his bullpen very well this year in my opinion. Just like he’s done in every year since he became the Yankee manager. Because of that, I think the bullpen will continue to be a strength going forward.
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
2012 Yankee Starting Pitcher Projections vs. Actuals at the All Star Break
Although they didn’t stat the season off all that well, the Yankees’ starting pitchers have been probably the biggest contributors to their place in the standings over the last two months. Here’s a look at how they’ve performed vs. their projections so far.
We start with CC Sabathia.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 107 | 103 | 42 | 39 | 9 | 30 | 95 | 3.57 | 3.24 | 3.23 | 26 | 2.6 |
| davenport | 107 | 98 | 46 | 45 | 9 | 31 | 88 | 3.86 | 3.81 | 3.44 | 22 | 2.2 |
| marcel | 107 | 100 | 42 | 38 | 8 | 31 | 94 | 3.55 | 3.24 | 3.24 | 26 | 2.6 |
| oliver | 107 | 103 | 46 | 42 | 8 | 29 | 90 | 3.88 | 3.54 | 3.24 | 22 | 2.2 |
| pecota | 107 | 101 | 42 | 38 | 9 | 26 | 96 | 3.52 | 3.21 | 3.16 | 27 | 2.7 |
| steamer | 107 | 100 | 47 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 96 | 3.96 | 3.61 | 3.49 | 21 | 2.1 |
| zips | 107 | 104 | 45 | 42 | 9 | 31 | 93 | 3.80 | 3.55 | 3.36 | 23 | 2.3 |
| average | 107 | 101 | 44 | 41 | 9 | 30 | 93 | 3.73 | 3.46 | 3.31 | 24 | 2.4 |
| 2012 | 107 | 107 | 50 | 41 | 10 | 29 | 105 | 4.21 | 3.45 | 3.15 | 18 | 1.8 |
| diff | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 12 | 0.47 | -0.01 | -0.16 | -6 | -0.6 |
Sabathia’s allowed six more hits and runs than he projected to, despite being pretty close to his projected HR and walk rates and with 12 more strike outs than projected. While his velocity is down somewhat from his average velocity in 2011, it’s not down as much if you compare it to his first half velocity in 2011. He tends to throw harder and pitch better as the year moves on, and I don’t see any reason to think that won’t happen again this year.
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
diff: Difference between 2012 and average projection
The projections expected a rough transition for Hiroki Kuroda, but he’s defied them so far.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 108 | 115 | 55 | 48 | 13 | 27 | 76 | 4.57 | 4.01 | 3.92 | 14 | 1.4 |
| davenport | 108 | 110 | 57 | 56 | 12 | 26 | 69 | 4.73 | 4.67 | 3.99 | 12 | 1.2 |
| marcel | 108 | 105 | 47 | 41 | 11 | 29 | 84 | 3.89 | 3.44 | 3.69 | 22 | 2.2 |
| oliver | 108 | 108 | 51 | 45 | 12 | 26 | 81 | 4.25 | 3.76 | 3.73 | 18 | 1.8 |
| pecota | 108 | 115 | 58 | 51 | 13 | 28 | 74 | 4.79 | 4.24 | 4.09 | 11 | 1.1 |
| steamer | 108 | 111 | 56 | 50 | 12 | 26 | 75 | 4.67 | 4.13 | 3.92 | 13 | 1.3 |
| zips | 108 | 116 | 55 | 52 | 15 | 28 | 77 | 4.62 | 4.33 | 4.28 | 14 | 1.4 |
| average | 108 | 111 | 54 | 49 | 13 | 27 | 77 | 4.50 | 4.08 | 3.95 | 15 | 1.5 |
| 2012 | 108 | 104 | 46 | 42 | 13 | 32 | 83 | 3.83 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 23 | 2.3 |
| diff | -7 | -8 | -7 | 0 | 5 | 6 | -0.67 | -0.58 | 0.05 | 8 | 0.8 |
Kuroda’s given up fewer hits and runs than he projected to, although his HR rate is spot on and he’s walked a few more hitters than expected. He’s also struck out a few more and has been close to a win better than expected so far this year. He’s probably not going to be as effective over the second half as he’s been so far, but he should still be solid.
For me, the most pleasant development on the 2012 Yankees has been Ivan Nova, and this table will show why.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 110 | 115 | 60 | 55 | 12 | 44 | 68 | 4.93 | 4.50 | 4.52 | 10 | 1.0 |
| davenport | 110 | 109 | 52 | 51 | 11 | 42 | 66 | 4.24 | 4.17 | 4.33 | 18 | 1.8 |
| marcel | 110 | 105 | 50 | 45 | 9 | 37 | 75 | 4.06 | 3.69 | 3.85 | 21 | 2.1 |
| oliver | 110 | 115 | 58 | 53 | 10 | 41 | 67 | 4.74 | 4.30 | 4.23 | 12 | 1.2 |
| pecota | 110 | 125 | 68 | 61 | 13 | 44 | 63 | 5.53 | 5.03 | 4.64 | 3 | 0.3 |
| steamer | 110 | 116 | 62 | 56 | 10 | 45 | 68 | 5.08 | 4.61 | 4.27 | 8 | 0.8 |
| zips | 110 | 116 | 58 | 54 | 12 | 37 | 69 | 4.74 | 4.44 | 4.33 | 12 | 1.2 |
| average | 110 | 115 | 58 | 54 | 11 | 41 | 68 | 4.76 | 4.39 | 4.31 | 12 | 1.2 |
| 2012 | 110 | 119 | 53 | 48 | 17 | 33 | 100 | 4.34 | 3.93 | 4.25 | 17 | 1.7 |
| diff | 4 | -5 | -6 | 6 | -8 | 32 | -0.43 | -0.47 | -0.05 | 5 | 0.5 |
The two most important numbers here IMO are that he’s walking fewer hitters than he projected to and striking out a lot more hitters than he projected to. Those two numbers stabilize much more quickly than any others, so we have pretty good evidence that Nova’s moved from decent back of the rotation starter to someone who can pitch in the middle of the rotation, and I’m not sure he’s done improving. His HR rate has hurt his overall effectiveness and will probably be an issue as long as he calls DNYS home, but if he can get that down a bit more he may be the second best starter on the Yankees by the end of the year. Then again, he probably was last year too.
An ugly April has Phil Hughes’s numbers looking a bit underwhelming, but he’s been much better since then.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 99 | 102 | 51 | 49 | 13 | 34 | 77 | 4.63 | 4.49 | 4.26 | 12 | 1.2 |
| davenport | 99 | 97 | 50 | 49 | 12 | 30 | 73 | 4.53 | 4.47 | 4.09 | 13 | 1.3 |
| marcel | 99 | 94 | 48 | 47 | 12 | 33 | 81 | 4.37 | 4.28 | 3.96 | 15 | 1.5 |
| oliver | 99 | 99 | 45 | 44 | 12 | 33 | 79 | 4.11 | 4.03 | 4.02 | 18 | 1.8 |
| pecota | 99 | 95 | 43 | 42 | 12 | 34 | 87 | 3.92 | 3.84 | 3.89 | 20 | 2.0 |
| steamer | 99 | 99 | 48 | 47 | 14 | 34 | 76 | 4.40 | 4.31 | 4.45 | 15 | 1.5 |
| zips | 99 | 102 | 57 | 53 | 15 | 36 | 77 | 5.21 | 4.84 | 4.55 | 6 | 0.6 |
| average | 99 | 98 | 49 | 48 | 13 | 33 | 79 | 4.45 | 4.32 | 4.18 | 14 | 1.4 |
| 2012 | 99 | 107 | 54 | 48 | 19 | 23 | 92 | 4.91 | 4.36 | 4.42 | 9 | 0.9 |
| diff | 9 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 13 | 0.45 | 0.04 | 0.25 | -5 | -0.5 |
Hughes is a bit behind his projected value, but like Nova he’s shown an improved walk rate and strikeout rate. Also like Nova his HR rate has been an issue. But I think we have to be happy with how he’s pitched over the last two months.
I only had three projections for Andy Pettitte (CAIRO, Marcel, and Steamer) but here is how he’s done so far.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 58 | 61 | 28 | 26 | 6 | 19 | 42 | 4.33 | 4.01 | 4.00 | 9 | 0.9 |
| marcel | 58 | 58 | 27 | 25 | 6 | 21 | 44 | 4.19 | 3.82 | 4.07 | 10 | 1.0 |
| steamer | 58 | 55 | 25 | 23 | 5 | 17 | 54 | 3.92 | 3.57 | 3.34 | 12 | 1.2 |
| average | 58 | 58 | 27 | 25 | 6 | 19 | 47 | 4.14 | 3.82 | 3.80 | 10 | 1.0 |
| 2012 | 58 | 49 | 23 | 21 | 7 | 15 | 59 | 3.56 | 3.25 | 3.31 | 14 | 1.4 |
| diff | -9 | -4 | -4 | 1 | -4 | 12 | -0.58 | -0.57 | -0.49 | 4 | 0.4 |
Pettitte’s been better than projected in just about every way, and let’s hope that continues when he gets back in September.
Sample size means I’m going to skip over Freddy Garcia, David Phelps and Adam Warren for now. But I’ll look at Garcia and Phelps as part of the bullpen.
Monday, July 2, 2012
Efficiency, thy name is Hughes
Thursday, June 28, 2012
NY Post: Yankees will go to battle with youngster Warren
Warren is 5-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 15 starts for SWB, though he has just 59 strikeouts in 86 ¹/₃ innings and an ugly 1.46 WHIP. He gets the call ahead of David Phelps, who has excelled in the bullpen for the Yankees.
“Phelps is the guy if stretched out, [then he] would have been a prime candidate,” Cashman said. “Warren is by far the next best for us.”
Treanor said Warren hit 93 mph on Sunday and consistently was throwing 92 mph. He also praised his cutter.
It would have been nice if Manny Banuelos was ready to make his MLB debut right now, but hopefully Warren pitches well. His season line doesn’t give me much hope for that, but he can probably get three or four starts if he pitches well tomorrow.
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
How much does losing Andy Pettitte cost the Yankees?
Andy Pettitte is expected to miss at least six weeks with his fractured ankle, which means a return to the starting rotation for Freddy Garcia. Garcia made four awful starts before being demoted but has had better results coming out of the bullpen in mostly low leverage situations.
| Dates | g | gs | ip | bf | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | so | era |
| 4/10 - 4/28 | 4 | 4 | 13.7 | 70 | 25 | 20 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 12.51 |
| 5/2 - 6/27 | 10 | 0 | 17.3 | 67 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 1.56 |
| Dates | ra | fip | xfip | babip | gb% | fb% | ld% | iffb% | hr/fb | bb/bf | k/bf | FBv |
| 4/10 - 4/28 | 13.17 | 5.56 | 4.07 | .431 | 31.5% | 24.1% | 40.7% | 3.7% | 23.1% | 7.1% | 15.7% | 86.8 |
| 5/2 - 6/27 | 2.08 | 2.88 | 3.70 | .204 | 41.8% | 34.5% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 17.9% | 88.6 |
fip: Fielding-independent pitching
xfip: Expected fielding-independent pitching
bb/bf: walks and hbp per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
babip: Batting average on balls in play against
ld%: Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
gb%: Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
fb%: Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
iffb%: Percentage of batted balls that were infield flies
FBv: Average fastball velocity
We know relieving is easier than starting,, and that Garcia probably won’t have the same velocity that he’s had out of the pen. We can also assume that he won’t have a BABIP against of .204 and a HR/FB rate of 5.3% in his return to starting. But there’s more evidence that he’ll pitch decently than there is that he’ll be the 12.5+ ERA disaster he was in April.
I’m going to assume Pettitte won’t pitch for eight weeks as of today which puts his return around August 22. Picking eight weeks gives me 50 Yankee games, which lets me use a nice round number of 10 starts for Garcia instead of Pettitte. Here are their revised CAIRO projections for the rest of the season which include what they’ve done so far in 2012.
| player | projection | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| Andy Pettitte | ROY | 10 | 10 | 60 | 58 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 18 | 1 | 49 | 3.93 | 3.58 | 3.59 | 14 | 1.4 |
| Freddy Garcia | ROY | 10 | 10 | 53 | 58 | 27 | 26 | 6 | 14 | 1 | 36 | 4.62 | 4.32 | 3.93 | 9 | 0.9 |
RAR: Runs saved above replacement level using RA
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
If you fill the innings gap between the two with replacement level pitching, the Yankees lose about 1/2 win based on these projections.
But what if you think CAIRO’s insane and is overrating Garcia, underating Pettitte, or both? The first thing I’d say is if that’s what you think, this is probably not the blog for you. But let’s run with it anyway.
If Pettitte’s a 3.22 ERA pitcher now and Garcia’s a 6.39 ERA pitcher and they both pitched 60 innings, Pettitte would allow 21 runs and Garcia would allow 43. That’s a two win drop.
That’s not a realistic scenario, because if Garcia is a 6.39 ERA pitcher now, he won’t get 10 more starts. Those starts would probably go to someone like David Phelps or Adam Warren depending on how he does in his debut. But I think Garcia will be ok. Not great, but good enough. Even if he’s a win worse than Pettitte over 10 games it shouldn’t be a huge issue.
I’m more disappointed that we won’t get to see Pettitte for a few months, because his comeback has been a lot of fun to watch. I don’t think losing him now is going to hurt the team all that much, especially if CC Sabathia returns as soon as he can from the DL. And who knows, maybe six to eight weeks off will give Pettitte a better chance of being strong through the end of the year?
I’ve been concerned about how long Pettitte would be able to pitch effectively since he only pitched 129 innings in 2010 and obviously threw none in 2011. If by some miracle the Yankees steal the second wild card it’d be nice to have a full-strength Pettitte in the postseason rotation.
Phil Hughes vs. Phil Hughes vs. Phil Hughes
| Dates | g | ip | bf | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | so | ra | era | fip | xfip |
| 04-08-12-04-25-12 | 4 | 16.0 | 81 | 24 | 18 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 10.13 | 7.88 | 6.44 | 4.50 |
| 05-01-12-05-28-12 | 6 | 36.7 | 157 | 39 | 19 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 32 | 4.66 | 4.66 | 4.39 | 4.01 |
| 06-03-12-06-26-12 | 5 | 33.7 | 132 | 28 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 32 | 2.67 | 2.67 | 4.51 | 3.77 |
| Dates | bb/bf | k/bf | babip | ld% | gb% | fb% | iffb% | hr/fb% | FBv |
| 04-08-12-04-25-12 | 9.9% | 21.0% | .345 | 16.7% | 28.3% | 46.7% | 8.3% | 17.9% | 91.8 |
| 05-01-12-05-28-12 | 5.1% | 20.4% | .283 | 17.5% | 32.5% | 46.7% | 3.3% | 12.5% | 92.8 |
| 06-03-12-06-26-12 | 6.1% | 24.2% | .233 | 14.4% | 32.0% | 47.4% | 6.2% | 15.2% | 92.7 |
fip: Fielding-independent pitching
xfip: Expected fielding-independent pitching
bb/bf: walks and hbp per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
babip: Batting average on balls in play against
ld%: Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
gb%: Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
fb%: Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
iffb%: Percentage of batted balls that were infield flies
FBv: Average fastball velocity
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
OaklandAs.com: RHP Danny Farquhar claimed off waivers by the New York Yankees
OAKLAND, Calif. – The Oakland A’s announced today that right-handed pitcher Danny Farquhar was claimed off waivers by the New York Yankees.
Farquhar was claimed off waivers by the A’s from Toronto June 9 and was optioned to Triple-A Sacramento that day.
I never heard of Farquhar, a right-handed reliever, but he seems like an interesting guy. According to this scouting report, he uses a different motion vs. righties (sidearm/submarine) than he does vs. lefties. His stuff is supposedly pretty good, but his control is not. Maybe the Yankees think they can get another Cody Eppley out of him or something.
I have no idea what corresponding roster move(s) is(are) coming to get him onto the 40 man roster, but I’d assume he’ll be stashed in the minors for now.
Monday, June 25, 2012
Trivia Question of the Day
What do R.A. Dickey, David Price, Cole Hamels, Matt Harrison, Lance Lynn, Wade Miley, Madison Bumgarner, Yu Darvish, Matt Cain, Ivan Nova, Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, Chris Capuano, CC Sabathia, Johnny Cueto, Chris Sale, Clay Buchholz, A.J. Burnett, Zack Greinke, Ricky Romero, Jason Hammel, Tommy Hanson, Felix Doubront, C.J. Wilson, Justin Verlander, Player, Jered Weaver, Wei-Yin Chen, James Shields, Phil Hughes, Ubaldo Jimenez, Derek Lowe, Tommy Milone, Brandon Morrow, Jason Vargas, Jake Peavy, Jake Westbrook, Bartolo Colon, Jerome Williams, Yovani Gallardo, Robbie Ross, James McDonald, Bruce Chen, Colby Lewis, Kyle Lohse, Wandy Rodriguez, Trevor Cahill, Hiroki Kuroda, Brandon McCarthy, Ryan Vogelsong, Max Scherzer, Player, Adam Wainwright, Mark Buehrle, Scott Diamond, Lucas Harrell, Ricky Nolasco, J.A. Happ, Joe Blanton, Ted Lilly, Gavin Floyd, Homer Bailey, Shaun Marcum, Brian Matusz, Jonathon Niese, Bud Norris, Drew Hutchison, Aaron Harang, Dan Haren, Brandon Beachy, Ian Kennedy, Daniel Bard, Joe Smith, Johan Santana, Clayton Kershaw, Jeff Samardzija, Tim Hudson, Player, Barry Zito, Dillon Gee, Mat Latos, Derek Holland, Felix Hernandez, Clayton Richard, Jeremy Hellickson, Justin Masterson, Kyle Drabek, Jon Lester, Paul Maholm, Kameron Loe, Edwin Jackson, Kenley Jansen, Christian Friedrich, Josh Johnson, Jeanmar Gomez, Brad Lincoln, Luke Hochevar, Carlos Zambrano, Nick Blackburn, Rick Porcello, Steve Cishek, Roy Halladay, Ervin Santana, Player, Pedro Strop, Chad Billingsley, Erik Bedard, Josh Beckett, Edinson Volquez, Tony Watson, Jose Arredondo, Tim Collins, Darren O’Day, Matt Moore, Ross Detwiler, Joe Saunders, Aroldis Chapman, Brad Ziegler, Randall Delgado, Jose Veras, Tommy Hunter, Jason Marquis, Brayan Villarreal, Cristhian Martinez, Logan Ondrusek, Kevin Millwood, Ryan Webb, Philip Humber, Vin Mazzaro, Player, Vance Worley, Jamey Wright, Daniel Hudson, Jonny Venters, Jose Valverde, Josh Tomlin, Jarrod Parker, Felipe Paulino, Vinnie Pestano, Javier Lopez, Wilton Lopez, Jason Motte, Jon Rauch, Matt Reynolds, Anibal Sanchez, Craig Stammen, Nate Jones, Cory Luebke, Jordan Zimmermann, Mike Minor, Andy Pettitte, Tom Wilhelmsen, Andrew Cashner, Charlie Furbush, Blake Beavan, Player, Matt Belisle, Ronald Belisario, Kevin Correia, Chad Durbin, Jeff Gray, Rex Brothers, Neftali Feliz, Alex Cobb, Jaime Garcia, Jeremy Guthrie, Bronson Arroyo, Henderson Alvarez, Matt Garza, Joel Hanrahan, Ryan Dempster, John Danks, Clay Hensley, Jake Arrieta, Carl Pavano, Luis Perez, Jose Quintana, Ramon Ramirez, Clay Rapada, Garrett Richards, Juan Nicasio, Player, Ryan Cook, Carlos Villanueva, Jeff Niemann, Jamie Moyer, Jesse Crain, Jim Miller, Charlie Morton, Darren Oliver, Francisco Cordero, Patrick Corbin, Jonathan Papelbon, Hector Noesi, Rafael Soriano, Fernando Rodney, Duane Below, Heath Bell, Antonio Bastardo, Anthony Bass, Jordan Walden, P.J. Walters, Chien-Ming Wang, Collin Balester, Alex White, Scott Atchison, Randy Wolf, Player, Raul Valdes, Matt Thornton, Josh Roenicke, Sergio Romo, Tyson Ross, James Russell, Luis Ayala, Shawn Camp, Tim Byrdak, Alex Burnett, Craig Breslow, Drew Smyly, Jeff Suppan, Matt Albers, Jose Mijares, Josh Lindblom, Mike Leake, Jared Hughes, Tom Gorzelanny, Brian Fuentes, Ryan Mattheus, Boone Logan, Brandon Gomes, Kevin Gregg, Jason Isringhausen, Player, Danny Duffy, Luis Mendoza, Michael Fiers, Kyle Kendrick, Rafael Dolis, Greg Holland, Jake McGee, Javy Guerra, Sam LeCure, Tim Lincecum, Zach Stewart, Jared Burton, Jerry Blevins, Huston Street, Travis Blackley, Eric Stults, Casey Janssen, Anthony Swarzak, Luke Gregerson, Dallas Keuchel, Will Smith, Chad Gaudin, Matt Capps, Jonathan Sanchez, Brian Bruney, Player, Jonathan Broxton, Hector Santiago, Bryan Shaw, Doug Fister, Mitchell Boggs, Andrew Carignan, Yoshinori Tateyama, Joe Kelly, Burke Badenhop, Randy Wells, LaTroy Hawkins, David Phelps, Jeremy Hefner, John Axford, Livan Hernandez, J.P. Howell, Travis Wood, J.J. Hoover, Chris Young, Mike Adams, Nick Hagadone, Grant Balfour, Rafael Betancourt, Jairo Asencio, Shawn Kelley, Player, Joaquin Benoit, Jair Jurrjens, Jason Grilli, Jim Johnson, Justin Grimm, Wade Davis, Miguel Batista, Dan Jennings, Hisashi Iwakuma, Manny Acosta, Miles Mikolas, Eric O’Flaherty, Alexi Ogando, Ross Ohlendorf, Victor Marte, Sean Marshall, Roy Oswalt, Adam Ottavino, Vicente Padilla, Carlos Marmol, Scott Feldman, Bobby Parnell, Troy Patton, Matt Maloney, Brian Duensing, Player, Casey Crosby, Jake Diekman, Andrew Miller, Cole De Vries, Kris Medlen, Steve Delabar, Franklin Morales, Chris Davis, Sean Doolittle, Zach McAllister, Chris Narveson, Octavio Dotel, Scott Downs, Juan Cruz, Rich Hill, Aaron Cook, Vinnie Chulk, Addison Reed, Tyler Chatwood, Brett Cecil, Mariano Rivera, Fernando Rodriguez, Henry Rodriguez, Bobby Cassevah, Freddy Garcia, Player, Francisco Liriano, Rhiner Cruz, David Carpenter, Santiago Casilla, Ernesto Frieri, Cesar Ramos, Jordan Lyles, Rafael Perez, Glen Perkins, Ryan Perry, Jose Contreras, Phil Coke, Todd Coffey, Lucas Luetge, Tyler Clippard, Stephen Pryor, J.J. Putz, Chad Qualls, Frank Francisco and Marc Rzepczynski all have in common?
Thursday, June 21, 2012
Gopher Phil Revisited
The site Hit Tracker Online tracks all the homers hit in MLB, and it gives us some cool data. One of the things it tracks is whether or not a homer was lucky, a no doubter, hit just enough to get over the wall, or hit with plenty of distance if not a no-doubter. This lets us take a look at Phil Hughes and how much he may be hurt by pitching so often in DNYS.
Here’s Hughes’s data for 2012.
| Date | Hitter | Pitcher ^ | Ballpark | Type/Luck | # Parks |
| 5/28 | Trout, Mike | Hughes, Phil | Angel Stadiu… | JE | 28 |
| 6/3 | Fielder, Prince | Hughes, Phil | Comerica Par… | ND | 30 |
| 6/9 | Quintanilla, Omar | Hughes, Phil | Yankee Stadi… | PL | 1 |
| 6/9 | Wright, David | Hughes, Phil | Yankee Stadi… | PL | 30 |
| 5/22 | Francoeur, Jeff | Hughes, Phil | Yankee Stadi… | JE | 27 |
| 5/17 | Bautista, Jose | Hughes, Phil | Rogers Centr… | PL | 16 |
| 5/12 | Carp, Mike | Hughes, Phil | Yankee Stadi… | ND | 30 |
| 5/6 | Quintero, Humberto | Hughes, Phil | Kauffman Sta… | JE | 30 |
| 5/1 | Hardy, J.J. | Hughes, Phil | Yankee Stadi… | PL | 30 |
| 5/1 | Davis, Chris | Hughes, Phil | Yankee Stadi… | PL | 21 |
| 4/25 | Beltre, Adrian | Hughes, Phil | Rangers Ball… | ND | 30 |
| 4/19 | Doumit, Ryan | Hughes, Phil | Yankee Stadi… | ND | 30 |
| 4/14 | Kendrick, Howard | Hughes, Phil | Yankee Stadi… | ND | 30 |
| 4/14 | Iannetta, Chris | Hughes, Phil | Yankee Stadi… | JE/L | 1 |
| 4/8 | Pena, Carlos | Hughes, Phil | Tropicana Fi… | JE | 8 |
| 6/20 | Freeman, Freddie | Hughes, Phil | Yankee Stadi… | JE | 14 |
| 6/20 | Prado, Martin | Hughes, Phil | Yankee Stadi… | ND | 30 |
| 6/20 | Ross, David | Hughes, Phil | Yankee Stadi… | PL | 30 |
| 6/20 | Heyward, Jason | Hughes, Phil | Yankee Stadi… | PL | 18 |
JE: Just enough
ND: No doubt
PL: Plenty
L: Lucky
You can read the full glossary here.
According to this, Hughes has allowed 5 HRs that were JE, 6 that were no-doubters, 7 hit with plenty of distance and one that would be categorized as lucky. Two of the 19 HRs he’s allowed this year would not have been homers in any other park.
In his career, 50 of the 72 HRs Hughes has allowed have come at home. He’s faced 1150 batters at home and 1069 batters on the road. His HR/FB rate at home is 13.1% compared to 6.6% on the road. FWIW, the Yankees as a team have a 13.5% HR/FB rate at home since DNYS opened in 2009.
That last number is the one that worries me. It tells me that Hughes hasn’t necessarily been all that unlucky at home relative to his fellow pitchers. That means expecting him to improve there might be wishful thinking.
As I mentioned in the last Gopher Phil post, you can give up a lot of homers and still be a pretty good pitcher if you limit baserunners. But that’s easier said than done.
Monday, June 18, 2012
Ivan Nova’s ERA, FIP and xFIP: May 9, 2012 - June 17, 2012
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
xFIP: Expected fielding-independent pitching
The Star-Ledger: Yankees’ CC Sabathia sees flaw in videotape, will implement change against Braves
WASHINGTON — The work began the day after CC Sabathia’s last start.
The Yankees ace had just battled through yet another start. Without consistent command of his fastball, Sabathia pitched the Yankees to a victory, though he knew it wasn’t good enough. So, he sought out pitching coach Larry Rothschild, who took a still frame from a start in 2009 and compared it with an image taken from Sabathia’s outing the previous night. The comparison revealed a small but correctable, mechanical flaw, one that he hopes is a thing of the past when he takes the mound against the Braves Monday night.
“It makes a big difference,” Sabathia said. “That will be something that I look to correct.”
I can’t imagine fixing this “mechanical flaw” will also add 1-2 MPH to his fastball, but one can dream.
Thursday, June 14, 2012
NYDN: Chamberlain is not ruling out returning to pitch for the Bombers this season
TAMPA — Joba Chamberlain is just dying to get a look at the radar-gun readings. No one will let him see them.
“I don’t know if it’s a good thing or a bad thing,” the righthander told the Daily News Wednesday after throwing on flat ground with the Yanks’ pitching guru, Billy Connors. “I know how it feels. It’s coming out good. It feels great. Velocity-wise, I couldn’t tell you how hard.”
The only hint that he’s throwing major league hard are the looks on the faces of the coaches and catcher who have been working with him at the team’s minor league complex the past several weeks — and he likes their reaction.
The one-time phenom, who suffered a freak, open ankle dislocation in March playing on a trampoline with his son, is working his way back to the Yankees. He believes he is 2-3 weeks away from going on a minor league rehab assignment and envisions himself becoming a valued reliever for the Yankees in the second half of the season.
Getting Joba back would be a boost to a bullpen that’s lost the best closer of all time. As much as people like Cody Eppley and Clay Rapada have contributed so far, counting on them in high leverage situations over the long haul seems like a strategy that’s fraught with peril. Should Chamberlain and David Aardsma be able to pitch effectively in the second half, the Yankees should have enough options to prevent them from overworking David Robertson and/or Rafael Soriano.
I’ll be amazed if Chamberlain’s back before August, but that seems like a realistic possibility.
I’m hoping his stuff looks good enough that the Yankees would re-visit the notion of him as a starting pitcher in 2013, but at this point I’ll settle for another good reliever in the pen.
Sunday, June 10, 2012
Gopher Phil
Back in 1986, Bert Blyleven set the record for most home runs allowed by a pitcher in a single season, with 50. It earned him the nickname Gopher Bert. Here’s a list of all the pitchers who allowed at least 40 HRs in a single season.
At his current pace, Phil Hughes would make this list with 42 homers allowed.
From September 8, 1986 through June 10, 1987 Blyleven had 20 straight starts where he allowed at least one homer. It’s the longest streak in MLB history.
Baseball Reference: Longest Streak with HR≥1 From 1918 to 2012
After yesterday’s game, Hughes has a streak of 12 straight games allowing a homer, which puts him in a tie with nine other pitchers for the sixth longest streak of such games.
You can still be a pretty valuable pitcher despite allowing a lot of homers if you are able to keep your walks and hits down so that they’re mostly solo shots. Blyleven was worth 3.9 WAR in 1986 despite his gopheritis. But it’d be cool if Hughes could stop allowing so many of them.
Friday, June 8, 2012
CC Sabathia vs. CC Sabathia
I’ve been wondering how worried we should be about CC Sabathia this year. He’s clearly not pitching as well as he has over the first three years of his Yankee career, but I really don’t know if it’s just a blip or if we’re seeing the start of his decline phase.
He’s not throwing as hard as he did last year, but I don’t know if that’s an early season thing and something that will improve as the season moves on. Here’s a comparison of CC’s first 12 starts of 2012 vs. his first 12 starts of 2011.
| Dates | g | ip | bf | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | so | ra | era | fip | xfip |
| 04-06-12-06-07-12 | 12 | 85.3 | 360 | 81 | 39 | 35 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 86 | 4.11 | 3.69 | 3.46 | 3.07 |
| 03-31-11-05-29-11 | 12 | 84.7 | 357 | 80 | 34 | 28 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 67 | 3.61 | 2.98 | 3.02 | 3.71 |
| Dates | bb/bf | k/bf | babip | ld% | gb% | fb% | iffb% | hr/fb% |
| 04-06-12-06-07-12 | 7.5% | 23.9% | .302 | 20.8% | 47.3% | 29.4% | 2.4% | 13.9% |
| 03-31-11-05-29-11 | 7.8% | 18.8% | .296 | 20.3% | 47.9% | 30.3% | 1.5% | 5.1% |
| Dates | FB% | FBv | SL% | SLv | CH% | CHv |
| 04-06-12-06-07-12 | 55.6% | 92.2 | 26.3% | 81.6 | 11.1% | 85.7 |
| 03-31-11-05-29-11 | 61.7% | 92.9 | 15.9% | 81.6 | 16.1% | 86.0 |
fip: Fielding-independent pitching
xfip: Expected fielding-independent pitching
bb/bf: walks and hbp per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
babip: Batting average on balls in play against
ld%: Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
gb%: Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
fb%: Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
iffb%: Percentage of batted balls that were infield flies
FB%: Percentage of fastballs thrown
FBv: Average fastball velocity
SL%: Percentage of sliders thrown
SLv: Average slider velocity
CH%: Percentage of changeups thrown
CHv: Average changeup velocity
Sabathia’s striking out a lot more hitters this year and walking them a bit less frequently, which is good. What’s not quite so good is the more than doubling of the HRs he’s allowed. His batted ball profiles are essentially the same aside from the big spike in his HR/FB rate. His velocity is down by about 0.7 mph and he’s throwing more sliders and fewer changeups.
You can make the case that Sabathia’s pitched better over his first 12 starts of 2012 than he did over his first 12 starts of 2011 depending on what you look at. But either way, these numbers tell me Sabathia should be fine, and will probably pick up a bit more velocity later in the year. FWIW, here is how he finished up 2011.
| Dates | g | ip | bf | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | so | ra | era | fip | xfip |
| 06-04-11-09-21-11 | 21 | 152.7 | 628 | 150 | 53 | 51 | 13 | 36 | 4 | 163 | 3.12 | 3.01 | 2.76 | 2.77 |
| Dates | bb/bf | k/bf | babip | ld% | gb% | fb% | iffb% | hr/fb% | ||||||
| 06-04-11-09-21-11 | 6.4% | 26.0% | .333 | 24.1% | 44.3% | 29.2% | 2.4% | 10.5% | ||||||
| Dates | FB% | FBv | SL% | SLv | CH% | CHv | ||||||||
| 06-04-11-09-21-11 | 57.4% | 94.3 | 24.3% | 82.6 | 12.1% | 87.3 |
Sabathia threw a fair amount harder over his final 21 starts last year than he had over his first 12 and for the most part was more effective aside from a slightly higher BABIP against and by a smidgen of ERA.
So yeah, let’s hold off on worrying about him for now.
Friday, June 1, 2012
Boston Herald: Yankees’ Rafael Soriano happy to be back in role as closer
DETROIT — As the AL saves leader with Tampa Bay in 2010, Rafael Soriano received Cy Young and MVP votes and a multi-year free agent contract by the Yankees - for which he’d been reduced to a seventh-inning setup man by mid 2012.
If he seemed brooding and distant, it began with his freefall in status and his change of address.
“It is (fun) now. Because last year, I didn’t have it,” said Soriano, who is 6-for-6 since replacing the injured Mariano Rivera and David Robertson as the Yanks’ closer.
I’m glad he’s having fun, because I’m not having fun watch him allow 2 runners every inning. I guess at the end all we should care about are the results, and on that I have no qualms. I think, assuming that Soriano continues to be effective, he should remain the closer. While it’s highly unlikely anyone is stupid enough to pay him what the Yankees are paying him, it’s slightly more likely if he racks up a bunch of saves.
I also think David Robertson remaining in the setup role can be more valuable pitching out of jams. It might also keep his salary lower next year, whereas accumulating a bunch of saves could make him into an official closer who deserves to be paid $10M+. As we all know, it’s all about pinching pennies in Yankee-land now.
Sunday, May 20, 2012
The Cutoff Man: Strikeouts not enough for Nova
Only five of the 18 batters who made outs against Nova did so without striking out as the righthander established a career high in punchouts. Nevertheless, his overall performance would have to be rated mediocre since his ERA rose to 5.69. Despite all the strikeouts, the Reds put runners on base with seven hits, two walks and a hit batter. Nova has allowed 84 base runners on 65 hits, 16 walks and three hit batters in 50 innings. His 1.62 WHIP is not very good, so Nova is fortunate that his record is 4-2.
All season I’ve been focusing on the walks and strikeouts for Nova and thinking he was going to start pitching better. I still think that, but at some point his actual performance has to temper those thoughts somewhat. I didn’t get to see the game so I have no idea how he looked. I don’t know if it’s a case of one bad pitch to Joey Votto being the difference between a 2 ER game that would’ve looked great in the box score or a 5 ER game which does not.
The Yankees could option Nova down again, but I don’t think there are five starting pitchers better than him in the organization right now so I don’t see the point.
Saturday, May 19, 2012
Yankees.com: Pettitte tosses gem to earn first win since 2010
NEW YORK—The eyes that claim ownership of the most recognizable stare in Yankees history were flickering with intensity, even with seven zeroes already on the scoreboard. Andy Pettitte wasn’t done yet.
Needing few words to convey that his vintage form had returned, the left-hander completed eight scoreless innings for his first victory in 22 months as the Yankees defeated the Reds, 4-0, in the opener of Interleague Play on Friday night at Yankee Stadium.
“Big league W’s are precious,” Pettitte said. “It’s a good feeling any time you get a win. It’s what we’re playing for, to win games and help this team to win. I didn’t come back not to help us win. I just feel like I’m doing my job, really.”
I wasn’t able to see the game as I’ve been hopping flights all over North Carolina today. But apparently Andy looked good and gave this team something they desperately needed. Maybe I’ll just stay down here and they can rip off a few more wins. Actually, in a couple of days I will be leaving the country for a week, so expect the Yankees to take over first place by Thursday.
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Beyond the Box Score: A PITCHf/x Look At Eight Rookie Starters
Phelps had a reputation for being mostly a fastball guy who lacked a put-away offspeed pitch, and that seems to largely be true. He does have a curveball, a cutter, and a changeup, and these pitches significantly lessen the pressure on Phelps’ solid-average, but not excellent, fastball—Phelps has gone offspeed 43.3% of the time this year. None of the three offerings, however, has a whiff rate higher than the curve’s 11.4%, so he doesn’t have a bigtime “out pitch.” The curve is a surprisingly hard (78-82 mph) breaker, and Phelps pounds the zone with the cutter (72.1% strikes), so he’s been able to coax some value out of those two offerings. Like Smyly, the changeup is a distant fourth pitch that is used exclusively to opposite-side batters.
It all adds up to a guy who is more than the sum of his parts; none of Phelps’ pitches wow you, but he’s got three solid pitches and a fourth usable one, and he commands all of them and doesn’t have any obvious weaknesses. The Yankees have high standards, but for almost any other team, Phelps would be a great guy to plug into the back of the rotation.
Here’s an interesting look at some rookie pitchers and their Pitch F/X, including David Phelps.
Wednesday, May 9, 2012
The Continuing Evolution of Ivan Nova
Despite an unimpressive ERA of 5.02 and a still less than stellar FIP of 4.83, I think Ivan Nova has shown some genuine development this year, building on his strong pitching from May 28 (the day he really started throwing his slider to good effect) last season. It’s more apparent when you look at his peripheral stats than his RA/ERA though.
| Start | End | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | xFIP | FB% | GB% | LD% | BB/BF | K/BF | HR/FB | BABIP |
| 2010-05-13 | 2011-05-22 | 92 | 101 | 8 | 38 | 52 | 4.97 | 4.39 | 4.23 | 4.58 | 30.4% | 51.4% | 18.2% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 8.4% | .305 |
| 2011-07-15 | 2012-05-08 | 153 | 157 | 17 | 47 | 108 | 3.89 | 3.83 | 3.96 | 3.88 | 30.2% | 51.1% | 18.6% | 7.3% | 16.7% | 11.6% | .300 |
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
xFIP: Expected fielding independent-pitching
FB%: Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
GB%: Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
LD%: Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
BB/BF: Walks per batters faced
K/BF: Strikeouts per batters faced
HR/FB: HRs divided by fly balls
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play against
The key numbers here are the improved walk rate and strikeout rate, and that’s even more apparent if you look at just 2012.
| Start | End | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | xFIP | FB% | GB% | LD% | BB/BF | K/BF | HR/FB | BABIP |
| 2012-04-09 | 2012-05-08 | 38 | 51 | 8 | 11 | 36 | 5.02 | 5.02 | 4.73 | 3.64 | 36.4% | 44.6% | 19.0% | 6.5% | 21.2% | 18.2% | .381 |
Nova’s RA and ERA this year are skewed by a much higher than normal HR/FB rate and a well above league average BABIP against. Now it’s worth noting that he may have improved his walk rate and strikeout rate by attacking the strike zone more and is missing in the middle of the plate more often because of that, so he may still have some work to do to get those two numbers back down to respectability. From his interviews I get the sense that Nova’s an intelligent pitcher who is still honing his craft and has a pretty good chance to continue making the adjustments he has to make to become a better pitcher than he already is. I suppose I should mention that his overall fly ball rate has increased which is probably a bad thing in terms of his HR and XBH rate, but it should also lead to a lower BABIP against, particularly when he gets Brett Gardner back behind him in LF.
In a lot of ways, it’s more fun to watch a prospect who wasn’t really highly touted surpass expectations than a top prospect who comes into the league with guns ablazing, not that us Yankee fans would have any idea of the latter. We saw the development of Robinson Cano from guy the Yankees tried to trade about 20 times to an All-Star until he fell off the cliff after his age 28 season, and we may be seeing the same thing with Nova.
I’m not saying he’s going to be an ace, because it’s pretty freaking hard to become one. But he sure looks like a guy on his way to surpassing his 4th/5th starter “ceiling”.
Monday, May 7, 2012
David Robertson’s Heat Maps
Although there really isn’t a lot of data on Robertson to this point in the season, I do think his pitch location is worth noting. He seems to be nailing that outside edge vs. LHB consistently.
However, it’s right handed batters that are really coming up empty against Robertson this year; he’s faced 21 RHB and struck out 11 of them.
David Robertson vs. RHB
| P | PA | AVG | OBP | SLUG | wOBA | BABIP | K% | BB% | HR% | HR/FB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 Season | 464 | 108 | .237 | .343 | .409 | .334 | .345 | 30.6% | 13.0% | 2.2% | 7.7% |
| 2010 Season | 661 | 155 | .250 | .329 | .364 | .302 | .316 | 23.9% | 9.7% | 2.3% | 8.3% |
| 2011 Season | 612 | 130 | .186 | .292 | .257 | .257 | .286 | 32.3% | 12.3% | 0.9% | 3.3% |
| 2012 Season | 93 | 21 | .105 | .190 | .158 | .170 | .250 | 52.4% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Robertson has thrown 106 cutters this season, recording nine strike outs and yielding five hits in 22 plate appearances. Batters are chasing the pitch out of the strike zone at a rate of 26.7%. Last season, his chase% on cutters was 19.3%.
Similarly, his fastball is getting batters to chase 31.4% compared to 20.3% between 2008 and 2011. Robertson has recorded eight strike outs on his fastball this season while giving up two hits in fifteen plate appearances. He’s actually relying on his cutter more as he’s thrown only 74 fastballs to this point. His cutter and fastball come in at roughly the same velocity (92.7 MPH and 93.0 MPH respectively since 2011). Batters might be finding it difficult to identify between the two pitches, resulting in his fairly high strike out rate to this point. I remember Russell Martin mentioning last season that Robertson’s cutter explodes at the end, much like Mo’s.
Robertson only started throwing the cutter last season; I can’t help wondering what part Mariano may have played in helping him develop the pitch.
Friday, May 4, 2012
Yankees.com: CC wins fourth straight after Yanks erupt late
KANSAS CITY—Eduardo Nunez’s go-ahead RBI triple opened the floodgates in a four-run seventh inning as the Yankees rallied to top the Royals, 6-2, on Friday at Kauffman Stadium.
Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter also homered as New York snapped its three-game losing skid behind eight strong innings from ace CC Sabathia, who won his fourth straight start.
That was a much needed win, more to regain sanity than anything else.
Also, For now, Robertson, Soriano will split ninth.
This seems like a good idea if it means using Robertson in the higher leverage situations.
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
American League K-Rates
All qualifying AL relievers 2009
All AL relievers from 2011 to April 30th, 2012
The bottom list makes me happy. The top makes me a little sad.
Monday, April 30, 2012
MLB.com: Yanks move Garcia to ‘pen, Phelps to rotation
NEW YORK—Freddy Garcia has been dispatched to the Yankees’ bullpen, and rookie David Phelps will have an opportunity to pitch out of the club’s rotation.
Garcia was battered by the Tigers for six runs in 1 2/3 innings on Saturday in a 7-5 Yankees loss, the second straight start Garcia only recorded five outs, and the change did not come as a shock to the hurler.
“When you’re pitching [poorly] out of the rotation, what do you expect?” Garcia said. “When you don’t do your job, what are they supposed to do? That’s what happened. They’re honest. I didn’t pitch the way I was supposed to pitch. It’s reality.”
I don’t think Garcia’s as bad as he’s looked so far this year, and his peripherals generally agree. Repeated from yesterday’s game thread.
Garcia 2011: 15.3% K/BF, 7.2% BB/BF, 4.36 xFIP, 87.2 mph average fastball velocity
Garcia 2012: 15.7% K/BF, 7.1% BB/BF, 3.95 xFIP, 87.0 mph average fastball velocity
Unfortunately, there’s also this:
Garcia 2011: .292 BABIP against, 22.3% LD, 8.2% HR/FB, 77.1% LOB
Garcia 2012: .440 BABIP against, 42.3% LD, 23.1% HR/FB, 41.0% LOB
I get the feeling that Garcia will get another chance to start at some point, and will probably do ok if he does. That being said, I think removing him from the rotation for now is the right thing to do, moreso to see what the Yankees have in David Phelps, but also to give Garcia a chance to regroup.
As far as what the Yankees have in Phelps, I have no idea. He’s pitched pretty well this year, but that’s the extent of his MLB resume. His projections are all based on translating his minor league numbers and have huge error bars because of that. Rather than rehash those, I’ll. just point you to his pre-season projections.
If all we knew about Phelps was what he’d done as a reliever at the big league level (17.2 IP of 3.57 ERA), we could try and fudge how that would translate to a starter. In general, a reliever who moves to the rotation will be about 15-20% less effective. Hits, homers and runs will go up by 15-20%, strike outs will drop by about the same rate. Walk rate stays pretty stable. If you were to use his performance so far to project him as a starter and reliever, it’d look something like this.
| Role | W | L | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starter | 7 | 7 | 20 | 20 | 120 | 93 | 58 | 34 | 45 | 82 | 4.35 |
| Reliever | 4 | 3 | 70 | 0 | 70 | 48 | 28 | 16 | 28 | 55 | 3.60 |
The problem here is that it’s probably not realistic to think Phelps can hold hitters to a .178 BABIP all year. FIP has him at 5.66 and xFIP has him at 4.09. Splitting the difference puts him at around 4.87. That’s a hair better than his average ERA projection heading into the year, and although it’s not great, it’s better than what they’ve gotten out of Garcia at least. And Phil Hughes, for that matter.
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Yankees.com: Garcia ousted early as rallying Yanks fall
NEW YORK—Freddy Garcia is long removed from blowing fastballs by hitters, but he found a second life as a soft-tosser who hit the corners exceptionally. Those days, too, seem to be fading further and further into the rear-view mirror.
Loud boos showered the veteran as he was sent to a second-inning exit on Saturday, and Garcia may have pitched himself out of New York’s rotation with his latest clunker, hit hard for six runs as the Tigers defeated the Yankees, 7-5, at Yankee Stadium.
We can now complete SG’s trend line for Freddy:
April 10: 4.2 IP, 4 R
April 16: 5.2 IP, 5 R
April 21: 1.2 IP, 5 R
April 28: 1.2 IP, 6 R
Thursday, April 26, 2012
NY Times: Yankees Lose Pineda for Season, and Hughes Adds to Worries
ARLI
NGTON, Tex. — It was a dreary day for the Yankees’ pitching rotation Wednesday, as news about Michael Pineda’s season-ending injury was followed by a bad outing from one of the pitchers the Yankees hope can make up for Pineda’s loss.
IIn the afternoon, the Yankees announced that Pineda had a torn labrum in his right shoulder and would miss the season, and the first month of next year. Several hours later, Phil Hughes compounded the problem.
I wanted to try and show the projected impact of losing Pineda, but at this point given the fact that those innings are going to be replaced by some combination of Hughes, Freddy Garcia and Andy Pettitte I don’t think I can do it. I have no idea how to project any of them right now. Hughes and Garcia are worse than replacement level and I’m not sure they’ll be better than that at any point this year. With Pettitte we have the uncertainty of what a year off may have done to him.
If we assume Pineda’s replaced by replacement level innings, the Yankees lose about three wins. Hopefully it’s not worse than that.
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
2012 MLB Starting Pitching Through April 24
| Team | IP | TBF | RA | ERA | FIP | xFIP | BB/BF | K/BF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 104.7 | 401 | 2.15 | 1.72 | 2.03 | 2.85 | 5.5% | 24.2% |
| Cardinals | 112.0 | 439 | 2.73 | 2.57 | 3.06 | 3.42 | 5.7% | 17.8% |
| Rangers | 120.7 | 497 | 2.83 | 2.76 | 3.25 | 3.90 | 7.6% | 19.1% |
| Pirates | 86.7 | 354 | 3.01 | 2.8 | 3.10 | 3.86 | 7.3% | 14.7% |
| Phillies | 117.3 | 473 | 3.14 | 2.84 | 3.17 | 3.20 | 5.3% | 20.1% |
| White Sox | 110.7 | 442 | 3.17 | 3.09 | 3.42 | 3.63 | 7.9% | 23.8% |
| Athletics | 122.0 | 495 | 3.32 | 2.95 | 3.63 | 4.19 | 6.1% | 13.3% |
| Marlins | 100.3 | 414 | 3.50 | 3.41 | 3.30 | 3.51 | 6.5% | 18.4% |
| Giants | 107.7 | 439 | 3.59 | 3.51 | 3.66 | 3.80 | 6.8% | 19.6% |
| Dodgers | 104.7 | 435 | 3.61 | 3.01 | 3.63 | 3.80 | 9.4% | 21.8% |
| Rays | 107.3 | 453 | 3.77 | 3.44 | 4.16 | 4.31 | 9.9% | 16.1% |
| Blue Jays | 109.7 | 443 | 4.02 | 3.78 | 5.45 | 4.32 | 9.3% | 13.5% |
| Tigers | 95.3 | 406 | 4.25 | 3.87 | 3.29 | 3.43 | 6.2% | 21.4% |
| Reds | 106.0 | 448 | 4.42 | 3.99 | 3.92 | 4.23 | 6.5% | 14.3% |
| Angels | 106.0 | 440 | 4.50 | 4.33 | 4.24 | 3.40 | 5.9% | 20.2% |
| Mariners | 107.7 | 454 | 4.51 | 4.43 | 3.62 | 3.88 | 5.9% | 18.3% |
| Mets | 96.3 | 418 | 4.58 | 3.92 | 3.62 | 3.25 | 7.7% | 20.8% |
| Indians | 84.0 | 367 | 4.61 | 4.18 | 4.19 | 4.31 | 9.0% | 13.9% |
| Astros | 108.3 | 466 | 4.65 | 4.24 | 4.14 | 4.02 | 8.2% | 16.7% |
| Diamondbacks | 108.0 | 456 | 4.75 | 4.33 | 4.17 | 3.68 | 7.5% | 18.4% |
| Cubs | 106.0 | 455 | 4.75 | 4.25 | 3.42 | 3.63 | 8.8% | 21.8% |
| Braves | 101.7 | 430 | 4.78 | 4.16 | 3.80 | 3.99 | 9.1% | 19.3% |
| Brewers | 102.7 | 441 | 4.91 | 4.82 | 3.91 | 3.60 | 7.0% | 21.8% |
| Padres | 104.0 | 445 | 4.93 | 4.15 | 3.92 | 3.85 | 11.0% | 19.8% |
| Orioles | 100.3 | 433 | 5.02 | 4.22 | 4.33 | 4.15 | 9.5% | 18.7% |
| Royals | 88.0 | 386 | 5.32 | 4.81 | 4.11 | 4.49 | 11.7% | 16.8% |
| Rockies | 88.3 | 390 | 5.40 | 4.89 | 4.96 | 4.83 | 9.5% | 12.6% |
| Red Sox | 94.3 | 413 | 5.72 | 5.63 | 4.92 | 4.22 | 9.9% | 17.9% |
| Yankees | 96.3 | 427 | 6.17 | 5.51 | 4.35 | 3.44 | 6.1% | 21.1% |
| Twins | 95.0 | 423 | 7.01 | 6.73 | 5.50 | 4.38 | 6.9% | 13.0% |
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
xFIP: Expected fielding-independent pitching
Twins pitching vs. the Yankees: 2-2, 6.09 RA
Twins pitching vs. the rest of the league: 3-11, 5.88 RA
Remember how the Yankees’ starting pitching was supposed to be a strength? Now they’re hoping a 40 year old who hasn’t pitched in a year can ride in and save the day.
CC should be fine. I think Nova’s a good bet for continued success thanks to the big improvement in his peripherals. Whether that makes him a 2 or a 3 I don’t know, but it’s probably safer to think he’s a 3. Kuroda will also be ok I think, but I don’t think he’s a 2 in the AL. It’d be nice if Phil Hughes wasn’t awful, because with Michael Pineda looking less and less likely to pitch this year Andy Pettitte could in theory fill one hole between Hughes and Freddy Garcia, but he can’t fill two. My guess is Garcia’s start on Saturday will be his last for this turn in the rotation.
Despite what they’ve shown to date I’d bet a reasonable amount of money the Yankees will not remain the second worst starting rotation in MLB by the end of the year. I think they have a chance to crack the top 20.
Monday, April 23, 2012
Pitchers A vs. Pitchers B
| Pitchers | HR/FB | BB/BF | K/BF | GB% | FB% | LD% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 5.6% | 7.4% | 19.4% | 35.8% | 36.7% | 20.4% | 7.1% |
| B | 16.2% | 6.2% | 20.9% | 37.1% | 35.6% | 22.3% | 5.0% |
HR/FB: Home runs divided by fly balls (league average is around 10-11%)
BB/BF: walks divided by batters faced
K/BF: strikeouts divided by batters faced
GB%: percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
FB%: percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
LD%: percentage of batted balls that were line drives
IFFB%: percentage of batted balls that were infield fly balls
If this was all the data you had on two sets of pitchers, which one would you take?
How about if you also had this?
Pitchers A: xFIP of 3.92
Pitchers B: xFIP of 3.58
Lastly, figure out which of these RA/ERA/FIP go with which group of pitchers.
6.61 RA, 5.84 ERA, 4.52 FIP
2.62 RA, 2.54 ERA, 3.23 FIP
Friday, April 20, 2012
Crashing the Party
I decided to make use of my field pass during Yankees' batting practice on Friday afternoon. I figured that I should make the most of it before somebody wised up and revoked it.
Trying to remain as incognito as possible, I snapped off a few pictures using my phone (hence the poor picture quality). Click on any of them to enlarge.
I took this shot just as the Red Sox were finishing up their BP - all the Yankees were still in the dugout getting ready to come out and stretch.
Papelbon is right, Mo has a great smile.
CHB asked asked A-Rod about his favorite Fenway moments. I believe A-Rod mentioned his first major league game in July of 1994.
One of the funnier moments I witnessed was when Nick Swisher came into the dugout before taking BP. Russell Martin was just about to sit down with a reporter from a Canadian news outlet, and Swisher started yelling out, "French time? Time for French!?"
Another interesting thing I caught was Swisher talking to Ibanez about the difference between Yankee Stadium's short porch and the wall in left at Fenway. He said something about how if you get jammed at Yankee Stadium, you won't be able to muscle it out; but you can get jammed and still go deep over the monster. Or maybe it was the other way around. The funny thing was that it almost looked like he got jammed in his first plate appearance on Friday and he actually took it the other way for a HR over the monster.
Kuroda sitting down for an interview with Japanese TV. I only caught one word: Ichiro.
Every time I get an assignment for a Yankee game, I hope to see Mariano Rivera take the mound. So when Cody Eppley came in with a four run lead in the bottom of the ninth, I was a bit disconcerted. However, it only took one single off the bat of Jarrod Saltalamacchia for Girardi to make the inevitable call to the bullpen, and I once again got to see my absolute favorite player in action. Two strike outs and a ground out was all the Red Sox could muster against the greatest closer in baseball history, and the Yankees took the first game of the season series 6-2.
Happy Birthday Fenway.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Should We Be Worried about CC’s Fastball?
Obviously CC Sabathia’s gotten off to a rough start this year. What I don’t know is if it’s just a blip or something we should start to worry about. Here are Sabathia’s peripheral stats for his first two starts over the last three seasons.
| days | year | ip | bf | h | hr | bb | k | fb% | gb% | ld% |
| 04-06 - 04-11 | 2012 | 12.0 | 56 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 34.3% | 31.4% | 34.3% |
| 03-31 - 04-05 | 2011 | 13.0 | 51 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 38.2% | 29.4% | 32.4% |
| 04-04 - 04-10 | 2010 | 13.0 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 30.6% | 47.2% | 22.2% |
| days | year | p/bf | bb/bf | k/bf | ra | era | fip | xfip | babip | hr/fb |
| 04-06 - 04-11 | 2012 | 3.86 | 8.9% | 26.8% | 6.75 | 6.75 | 4.12 | 3.38 | .412 | 16.7% |
| 03-31 - 04-05 | 2011 | 4.12 | 5.9% | 25.5% | 2.08 | 1.38 | 1.89 | 3.32 | .229 | 0.0% |
| 04-04 - 04-10 | 2010 | 4.39 | 8.2% | 18.4% | 3.46 | 3.46 | 2.74 | 3.95 | .194 | 0.0% |
fb%: percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
gb%: percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
ld%: percentage of batted balls that were line drives
p/bf: pitches per batters faced
bb/bf: walks per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
ra/era: runs allowed per nine, earned runs allowed per nine
fip: fielding-independent pitching
xfip: expected fielding-independent pitching (regresses HR rate to league average)
babip: batting average on balls in play against
hr/fb: homers allowed per fly ball (league average is in the 10-11% range)
xFIP thinks he’ll be fine, but I’m not so sure we should just hand wave away the higher BABIP against and the HR/FB rate. I am not sure if what appears to be lower velocity is an early season thing or a cause for concern, so here are some of his Pitch FX numbers for the first two starts of each of the past three seasons.
| Year | Pitch Type | Avg Velocity | Max Velocity | # | % |
| 2010 | FF (FourSeam Fastball) | 93.5 | 96.0 | 87 | 44.8% |
| SI (Sinker) | 92.9 | 95.0 | 33 | 17.0% | |
| 2011 | FF (FourSeam Fastball) | 93.1 | 96.0 | 92 | 39.0% |
| SI (Sinker) | 92.5 | 95.0 | 50 | 21.2% | |
| 2012 | FF (FourSeam Fastball) | 91.5 | 94.1 | 42 | 19.2% |
| SI (Sinker) | 91.7 | 95.0 | 71 | 32.4% |
# is just the count of the times he threw his four-seamer and his sinker over the first two starts. I’m not sure that what Pitch FX is seeing in 2012 (more sinkers, fewer four-seamers) is a genuine change in his approach or if reduced velocity is causing some classification issues, so here’s what it looks like if we just lump them together.
| Year | Pitch Type | Avg Velocity |
| 2010 | FF+SI | 93.4 |
| 2011 | FF+SI | 92.9 |
| 2012 | FF+SI | 91.6 |
I figured Sabathia picks up some velocity as the season goes on, although according to these velocity charts that’s really only visibly apparent in 2011.
As far as whether this means we should worry about CC, I’d say probably not yet. But if he is still throwing like this in May I may start to.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Ivan Nova’s Curveball
| P | Zone% | Chase% | Miss% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 Season | 589 | 41.3% | 26.0% | 26.6% |
| 4/9/2012 | 23 | 60.9% | 55.6% | 45.5% |
Ivan Nova's curveball was really working last night. In two strike counts, he threw the pitch ten times, resulting in no hits and five strikeouts. Of those five strikeouts, four came on curveballs located out of the zone. I'd like to think that he was able to set that up by locating his curve in the strike zone throughout the game. If batters were aware that Nova was willing to throw the pitch in the zone, they were probably more likely to hack at it in two strike counts.
The two hits he gave up on curves were both located inside the strike zone: a double by Wieters in the 4th on a 2-1 pitch with the bases empty, and a single by Adam Jones in the 6th on an 0-1 pitch with the bases empty.
The one backwards K Nova recorded with his curveball last night came in the bottom of the seventh against Robert Andino. That must be why he was so testy after the game....
Monday, April 9, 2012
CBS Sports: MLB Preview: New York at Baltimore
Perhaps the only thing more surprising than how well the Baltimore Orioles have played this season is how poorly the New York Yankees have looked.
The Orioles will try to open 4-0 for the second consecutive season and send the Yankees to their first 0-4 start in 39 years Monday night in the opener of a three-game series at Camden Yards.
While ending a run of 14 straight losing seasons would be considered a very successful campaign for Baltimore, the Yankees are again expected to compete for a championship.
| Tm | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| BAL | 102 | 15 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 12 | .275 | .353 | .495 | .847 |
| NYY | 119 | 12 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 16 | .212 | .336 | .343 | .680 |
| Tm | W | L | ERA | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO |
| BAL | 3 | 0 | 1.00 | 27 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 16 |
| NYY | 0 | 3 | 5.92 | 24.1 | 29 | 18 | 16 | 5 | 16 | 4 | 28 |
| Tm | Pos | CH | PM | AvgPM | Diff | RS |
| Bal | 1B | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Bal | 2B | 12 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Bal | 3B | 10 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Bal | CF | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Bal | LF | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Bal | RF | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Bal | SS | 9 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| Bal | Total | 51 | 45 | 43 | 2 | 2 |
| NYY | 1B | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| NYY | 2B | 6 | 3 | 4 | -1 | -1 |
| NYY | 3B | 10 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| NYY | CF | 10 | 6 | 8 | -2 | -2 |
| NYY | LF | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | -1 |
| NYY | RF | 9 | 7 | 8 | -1 | -1 |
| NYY | SS | 8 | 4 | 6 | -2 | -2 |
| NYY | Total | 48 | 31 | 38 | -7 | -7 |
CH: Fieldable chances in Zone Rating
PM: Plays made (CH converted into outs)
AvgPM: PM by average defender over same # of chances
Diff: PM minus AvgPM
RS: Runs saved compared to average (Diff times run value at position of a play made)
Thursday, April 5, 2012
Looking Ahead to 2012 - Mariano Rivera
On September 19, 2011, Mariano Rivera recorded the 602nd save of his career, passing Trevor Hoffman to become the all-time MLB leader in saves. Saves are a somewhat flawed stat, but what’s not flawed is Rivera’s performance. He’s a first-ballot Hall of Famer who might be the best reliever ever, although he has surely benefitted from having the workload of a modern closer.
I forget who asked me about whether there were any players that constantly exceeded their projections. I think it was Ugly Johnny D. There’s only one I can think of for sure.
| First | Last | Year | age | mIP | mERA | aIP | aERA |
| Mariano | Rivera | 1995 | 26 | 40 | 4.50 | 67 | 5.51 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 1996 | 27 | 77 | 4.91 | 108 | 2.09 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 1997 | 28 | 88.7 | 3.65 | 71.7 | 1.88 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 1998 | 29 | 72.7 | 3.10 | 61.3 | 1.91 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 1999 | 30 | 63 | 2.86 | 69 | 1.83 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2000 | 31 | 65.3 | 3.03 | 75.7 | 2.85 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2001 | 32 | 69.7 | 3.36 | 80.7 | 2.34 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2002 | 33 | 73.3 | 3.19 | 46 | 2.74 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2003 | 34 | 56 | 3.38 | 70.7 | 1.66 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2004 | 35 | 65 | 3.05 | 78.7 | 1.94 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2005 | 36 | 71.3 | 3.03 | 78.3 | 1.38 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2006 | 37 | 72 | 2.63 | 75 | 1.80 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2007 | 38 | 70.3 | 2.82 | 71.3 | 3.15 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2008 | 39 | 68 | 3.31 | 70.7 | 1.40 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2009 | 40 | 67.7 | 3.06 | 66.3 | 1.76 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2010 | 41 | 65 | 3.18 | 60 | 1.80 |
| Mariano | Rivera | 2011 | 42 | 61.7 | 2.77 | 61.3 | 1.91 |
| Total | 1147 | 3.27 | 1211 | 2.21 |
mIP: Marcel projected innings pitched.
mERA: Marcel projected ERA.
aIP: Actual innings pitched
aERA: Actual ERA
Marcel regresses more heavily than any other projection system, but it’s the only one I have going all the way back to 1995 so I’m using that. Rivera’s pitched 65 innings more than projected and allowed 119 fewer earned runs. This is more remarkable because every year where he beats his projection should make his projection better. His best projected ERA was 2.63 in 2006. He’s had an ERA better than 2.63 in 13 of his 16 seasons as a reliever.
So it’s safe to say he’s exceeded his projections.
2011
Despite putting up a 1.80 ERA in 2010, Mo seemed to be a bit less dominant. It continued what appeared to be a downward trend.
| Year | IP | BF | ERA | FIP | BABIP | BB/PA | K/PA |
| 2008 | 70.7 | 259 | 1.40 | 2.10 | .218 | 2.3% | 29.7% |
| 2009 | 66.3 | 257 | 1.76 | 2.99 | .248 | 4.7% | 28.0% |
| 2010 | 60.0 | 230 | 1.80 | 2.93 | .222 | 4.8% | 19.6% |
| 2011 | 61.3 | 233 | 1.91 | 2.37 | .275 | 3.4% | 25.8% |
I try to make the point as often as I can that things that appear to be trends in baseball are not predictive. Rivera’s walk rate appeared to be trending up while his K rate was trending down, but it didn’t really tell us anything about 2011. FIP says Rivera was better in 2011 than he was in 2009 and 2010, but FIP ignores his BABIP supressing ability. It’s probably also worth mentioning that Rivera actually threw a smidgen harder last year than he had over the prior two season.
Even though projections are always wrong about Mo, I’ll post them anyway.
2012 Projections
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 65 | 50 | 19 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 59 | 2.63 | 2.46 | 2.71 | 21 | 2.1 |
| davenport | 60 | 51 | 19 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 51 | 2.85 | 2.85 | 3.03 | 18 | 1.8 |
| marcel | 62 | 53 | 21 | 19 | 5 | 15 | 52 | 3.06 | 2.77 | 3.24 | 15 | 1.5 |
| oliver | 59 | 52 | 21 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 48 | 3.19 | 2.89 | 2.96 | 17 | 1.7 |
| pecota | 67 | 56 | 20 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 66 | 2.71 | 2.45 | 2.88 | 18 | 1.8 |
| steamer | 58 | 54 | 24 | 22 | 5 | 15 | 53 | 3.74 | 3.39 | 3.24 | 9 | 0.9 |
| zips | 49 | 44 | 18 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 43 | 3.31 | 3.12 | 3.11 | 10 | 1.0 |
| average | 60 | 52 | 20 | 19 | 5 | 12 | 53 | 3.07 | 2.85 | 3.02 | 15 | 1.5 |
| 2011 | 61 | 47 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 60 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 2.17 | 22 | 2.2 |
| LgAvg | 61 | 57 | 28 | 26 | 6 | 25 | 52 | 4.15 | 3.82 | 3.82 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average as frames of reference. League average is based on role (starters vs. relievers), and is not adjusted for park so unlike with hitters mentally adjust that down a bit.
Yay, CAIRO Yankee bias! Just like every year, the projections expect Mo to take a step back, but even so he still projects as well as just about any reliever in baseball. Here is Rivera’s rank in projected ERA for each system.
cairo: 3
davenport: 2
marcel: 2
oliver: 2
pecota: 8
zips: 35
Boo ZiPS!
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 78 | 52 | 17 | 16 | 3 | 11 | 80 | 2.02 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 30 | 3.0 |
| 65% | 71 | 51 | 18 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 69 | 2.33 | 2.16 | 2.28 | 25 | 2.5 |
| Baseline | 65 | 50 | 19 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 59 | 2.63 | 2.46 | 2.67 | 21 | 2.1 |
| 35% | 52 | 43 | 17 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 44 | 2.93 | 2.75 | 3.04 | 15 | 1.5 |
| 20% | 45 | 40 | 16 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 36 | 3.23 | 3.04 | 3.41 | 11 | 1.1 |
The 65% forecast looks like a typical Rivera year. I don’t think he can pitch that many innings at that rate of performance though.
It’s no secret that Mariano Rivera is my favorite player ever. I don’t know if 2012 will be his last season, although if I had to handicap it I’d say it’s maybe 3-1 that it will be. Because of that, I’m going to just try and enjoy every appearance, every entrance, every warm-up pitch, every broken bat, every nasty cutter that a lefty hitter will flail at aimlessly, every four-seamer inside that freezes a righty and every win that Rivera closes out. Hopefully the final game of the MLB 2012 postseason will be one of those games. It’d be the most appropriate way for Mo to ride off into the sunset, wouldn’t it?
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Looking Ahead to 2012 - David Robertson
The best part of the Yankees’ 2011 season may have been watching David Robertson. Robertson entered 2011 as the fourth right-hander on the Yankees’ relief depth chart, expected to pitch some middle innings with the hope of getting the ball to the better relievers like Joba Chamberlain and Rafael Soriano. Instead, he outpitched every reliever on the team except may Mariano Rivera, and is probably now the favorite for the thankless job of “heir to Mo.”
2011
Robertson’s always racked up strikeouts. From 2008-2010 he struck out 170 hitters in 135.1 innings. The problem for him is that also racked up walks. He also had a much higher BABIP against than league average from 2008-2010, which is why he came into 2011 with a career ERA of 3.99.
So how did Robertson wind up as the most valuable relief pitcher in baseball last year (at least according to Baseball Reference)?
| dates | bf | ip | h | hr | r | er | bb | so | ra | era | fip | xfip |
| 6/29/2008 - 10/3/2010 | 595 | 135.3 | 124 | 12 | 63 | 60 | 71 | 170 | 4.19 | 3.99 | 3.41 | 3.67 |
| 4/2/2011 - 9/27/2011 | 272 | 66.7 | 40 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 35 | 100 | 1.22 | 1.08 | 1.97 | 2.70 |
| dates | babip | hr/fb | fb% | gb% | ld% | bb/bf | k/bf |
| 6/29/2008 - 10/3/2010 | .338 | 9.0% | 38.8% | 39.1% | 22.2% | 11.9% | 28.6% |
| 4/2/2011 - 9/27/2011 | .293 | 2.3% | 32.1% | 46.3% | 21.6% | 12.9% | 36.8% |
bf: batters faced
fip: Fielding independent pitching
xfip: Expected fip (uses league average hr/fb rate instead of actual hr)
babip: batting average on balls in play
hr/fb: Percentage of fly balls that were homers (league average is about 10-11%)
fb% Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
gb% Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
ld% Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
bb/bf: walks per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
He actually walked a higher percentage of the batters he faced in 2012. He just had a lower BABIP against, got a higher percentage of ground balls and saw a big drop in his HR/FB rate. His K rate went up a bit as well. He picked up about 1 mph on his fastball last year (93.1 mph) compared to his average of 91.8 from 2008-2010. He also added a cutter that he used quite a bit according to Pitch F/X.
We know that things like BABIP against and HR/FB are more volatile and should be regressed more than most other stats when looking forward, so it’s probably a safe bet that Robertson won’t be putting up a 1.08 ERA in 2012.
2012 Projections
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 62 | 50 | 20 | 19 | 4 | 31 | 78 | 2.96 | 2.77 | 2.84 | 17 | 1.7 |
| davenport | 65 | 52 | 29 | 28 | 6 | 33 | 72 | 4.02 | 3.88 | 3.60 | 11 | 1.1 |
| marcel | 65 | 54 | 23 | 21 | 5 | 28 | 74 | 3.20 | 2.92 | 3.11 | 14 | 1.4 |
| oliver | 63 | 50 | 26 | 24 | 4 | 31 | 76 | 3.72 | 3.40 | 2.98 | 14 | 1.4 |
| pecota | 72 | 57 | 27 | 25 | 6 | 35 | 92 | 3.43 | 3.13 | 3.08 | 13 | 1.3 |
| steamer | 60 | 48 | 23 | 21 | 5 | 28 | 73 | 3.40 | 3.11 | 3.24 | 12 | 1.2 |
| zips | 65 | 50 | 24 | 22 | 5 | 34 | 87 | 3.34 | 3.06 | 3.01 | 13 | 1.3 |
| average | 64 | 52 | 25 | 23 | 5 | 31 | 79 | 3.44 | 3.18 | 3.12 | 14 | 1.4 |
| 2011 | 66 | 40 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 35 | 100 | 1.22 | 1.09 | 1.81 | 36 | 3.6 |
| LgAvg | 66 | 61 | 31 | 28 | 7 | 27 | 56 | 4.15 | 3.82 | 3.82 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average as frames of reference. League average is based on role (starters vs. relievers), and is not adjusted for park so unlike with hitters mentally adjust that down a bit.
Robertson’s expected to take a big step back, although even with that he still projects as a solid reliever who could be a closer for all but a handful of teams. CAIRO likes him more than the other systems, but not to the extent that it should given the way CAIRO was designed to make the Yankees look better than they are. Luckily, I can correct for that with these.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 74 | 52 | 19 | 18 | 2 | 31 | 104 | 2.30 | 2.13 | 1.92 | 26 | 2.6 |
| 65% | 68 | 51 | 20 | 18 | 3 | 31 | 91 | 2.63 | 2.45 | 2.38 | 22 | 2.2 |
| Baseline | 62 | 50 | 20 | 19 | 4 | 31 | 78 | 2.96 | 2.77 | 2.84 | 17 | 1.7 |
| 35% | 49 | 43 | 18 | 17 | 4 | 27 | 59 | 3.28 | 3.09 | 3.30 | 12 | 1.2 |
| 20% | 43 | 40 | 17 | 16 | 4 | 26 | 49 | 3.61 | 3.41 | 3.74 | 9 | 0.9 |
While I wouldn’t be surprised to see Robertson hit the 65% or even the 80% forecast, the annoying logical side of my brain tells me we should expect a regression in HR/FB and BABIP and the baseline is more reasonable. Really, any of those projections make Robertson better than Rafael Soriano, who’s getting paid more than all but four relievers in the history of baseball.
When Joe Girardi anointed Joba Chamberlain as his official seventh inning guy early into last season, I was very annoyed. Primarily because it meant that he’d be using a bullpen-by-numbers approach and not trying to take advantage of matchups or any other things that require a more flexible approach. But another part of that annoyance was that I felt Robertson was a better reliever than Joba, and I didn’t understand why he was below him in the pecking order. Robertson forced Girardi’s hand, made the All Star Team and even got MVP and Cy Young votes in 2011. Not bad for a 17th round draft pick who wasn’t really ever considered a prospect. I also think it was awesome that Robertson started the High Socks for Hope charity to help people recover from the horrible tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama last year.
I think Robertson will have another strong year, and may cement himself into position to be the heir to Mo should Mo decided it’s time to go. Those are some pretty big shoes to fill, but an unflappable guy like Robertson (who struck out 14 of the 19 batters he faced with the bases loaded last year) might be the best candidate for it.
Looking Ahead to 2012 - Rafael Soriano
I’m waiting on how the back end of the bullpen is shaping up so I figured I’d write about my favorite signing from last offseason until that’s done.
2011
According to Baseball References’s version of wins above replacement(WAR), there were 109 pitchers who were worth at least 0.7 WAR. That’s what Rafael Soriano was worth in 2011, ranking at 101 on the list for all relief pitchers. According to the linked list, he was worth less than Edgmer Escalona, who I am convinced is fictitious. He was worth less than Logan Ondrusek. He was worth less than Kameron Lo and Cristhian Martinez. Anyway, this is all just a long way of saying there were 100 relievers who were more valuable than him in 2011.
There were four relievers in baseball that made more money than Soriano in 2011. Mariano Rivera, Brad Lidge, Francisco Rodriguez and Joe Nathan. In fact, those are the only four relievers in MLB history to earn as much as Soriano’s contract will pay him per year over its duration. So aside from the 96 pitchers who provided more value than Soriano and earned less than him, it was a great signing.
I’m not sure if I ever mentioned how I feel about the Soriano signing. I wasn’t particularly enamored with it, but that was more because I felt it was an overpay and not because I didn’t think he was a good reliever. So you can imagine my dismay as I watched him storm out of the gate to a 7.84 ERA through April 26. He then pitched shutout ball over his next five games before winding up on the DL. After returning from the DL he pitched decently enough, with a 3.33 ERA and 26 Ks in 24.1 innings, but that’s really not the kind of performance you pay $12M per year for. Unless you’re the buffoon who made the signing.
Anyway, while the Soriano contract is in the discussion for worst contract ever, it doesn’t mean Soriano can’t provide 5 cents on the dollar’s worth of value in 2012.
2012 Projections
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 45 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 5 | 16 | 43 | 3.82 | 3.60 | 3.64 | 8 | 0.8 |
| davenport | 60 | 52 | 25 | 24 | 7 | 20 | 56 | 3.75 | 3.60 | 3.71 | 16 | 1.6 |
| marcel | 51 | 43 | 21 | 19 | 5 | 18 | 46 | 3.71 | 3.35 | 3.59 | 12 | 1.2 |
| oliver | 55 | 48 | 24 | 21 | 6 | 18 | 52 | 3.86 | 3.49 | 3.57 | 12 | 1.2 |
| pecota | 54 | 43 | 20 | 18 | 6 | 17 | 57 | 3.26 | 2.94 | 3.34 | 11 | 1.1 |
| steamer | 47 | 44 | 22 | 20 | 6 | 16 | 43 | 4.16 | 3.77 | 4.02 | 8 | 0.8 |
| zips | 63 | 50 | 24 | 22 | 6 | 21 | 74 | 3.43 | 3.14 | 3.04 | 16 | 1.6 |
| average | 54 | 45 | 22 | 20 | 6 | 18 | 53 | 3.71 | 3.41 | 3.56 | 12 | 1.2 |
| 2011 | 39 | 33 | 18 | 18 | 4 | 18 | 36 | 4.14 | 4.14 | 3.95 | 7 | 0.7 |
| LgAvg | 39 | 39 | 20 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 29 | 4.15 | 3.82 | 3.82 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average as frames of reference. League average is based on role (starters vs. relievers), and is not adjusted for park so unlike with hitters mentally adjust that down a bit.
Those are some amazingly great projections. You can count the number of relievers who could give you 50-55 innings of 3.41 ERA on about 30 hands. Or 15 hands and 15 feet.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 68 | 46 | 22 | 21 | 4 | 18 | 74 | 2.95 | 2.76 | 2.52 | 24 | 2.4 |
| 65% | 59 | 44 | 22 | 21 | 5 | 18 | 60 | 3.38 | 3.18 | 3.09 | 18 | 1.8 |
| Baseline | 45 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 5 | 16 | 43 | 3.82 | 3.60 | 3.66 | 8 | 0.8 |
| 35% | 36 | 32 | 17 | 16 | 5 | 14 | 32 | 4.25 | 4.03 | 4.21 | 7 | 0.7 |
| 20% | 32 | 30 | 17 | 16 | 5 | 14 | 25 | 4.69 | 4.45 | 4.75 | 5 | 0.5 |
I think we’ll see Soriano at that 20% forecast but he won’t pitch that many innings.
David Robertson’s emergence helped cover for a signing that was idiotic at the time and continues to look worse and worse. If Joba Chamberlain was healthy I’d guess the Yankees would have three right-handed relievers who were better than Soriano. But with Joba out, Soriano will be called upon to pitch those crucial seventh innings. You can’t get to the eighth if you don’t get out of the seventh, right?
Monday, April 2, 2012
Looking Ahead to 2012 - Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia
Ivan Nova
Time to double up on these with Opening Day fast approaching. I’m hoping to have my projected standings up tomorrow, so today we’ll round out the rest of the opening day rotation by looking at Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia.
After a decent showing in his 2010 MLB debut, albeit one with shaky peripherals, Ivan Nova earned a spot in the Yankee rotation to start 2011. Nova’s main calling card as a prospect was his fastball velocity, but until 2009 he hadn’t really shown the type of performance you’d like to see in a pitching prospect.
Because of that track record, his projections heading into the season weren’t pretty.
| projecton | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR | BABIP |
| cairo | 22 | 116 | 130 | 72 | 67 | 15 | 49 | 72 | 5.59 | 5.20 | 5.04 | 5 | 0.5 | .303 |
| marcel | 17 | 71 | 69 | 35 | 32 | 7 | 26 | 52 | 4.44 | 4.06 | 4.20 | 12 | 1.2 | .287 |
| oliver | 37 | 155 | 170 | 90 | 82 | 18 | 69 | 97 | 5.24 | 4.79 | 4.80 | 13 | 1.3 | .302 |
| pecota | 20 | 119 | 136 | 75 | 69 | 15 | 53 | 66 | 5.68 | 5.23 | 5.19 | 4 | 0.4 | .303 |
| zips | 28 | 150 | 170 | 94 | 88 | 19 | 69 | 88 | 5.65 | 5.29 | 5.18 | 5 | 0.5 | .304 |
| average* | 25 | 122 | 135 | 73 | 68 | 15 | 53 | 75 | 5.40 | 4.99 | 4.97 | 8 | 0.8 | .301 |
| 2010 | 33 | 187 | 179 | 72 | 67 | 14 | 65 | 141 | 3.47 | 3.22 | 3.74 | 52 | 5.2 | .291 |
| 2011 | 27 | 159 | 155 | 70 | 64 | 13 | 57 | 95 | 3.96 | 3.62 | 4.14 | 35 | 3.5 | .279 |
RA/ERA: Runs/Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher(park and role-adjusted, using RA)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play
The 2010 line includes his minor league performance so ignore that RSAR/WAR. As you can see Nova exceeded just about every projection in 2011.
2011
So was Nova lucky? Probably a bit, but we do have some evidence of genuine development. For the majority of pitchers, their effectiveness ties directly into their command of the strike zone. It’s the reason Mariano Rivera has been the best closer of all time, for example. You can look at the percentage of batters a pitcher walks and strikes out (and or their K/BB ratio) as a proxy for strike zone command. But don’t just take my word for it.
The fear with Nova, and the primary reason he didn’t get much respect among more statistically inclined analysts was that he had walked about 7.7% of the batters he’d faced in the minors while striking out 16.8%, a K/BB ratio of 2.19. You can be a useful pitcher in MLB with a K/BB ratio like that in MLB, but translating that from the minors doesn’t give you much of a margin of error.
In 2011, Nova walked 8.1% of the batters he faced and struck out 13.9%. His K/BB ratio of 1.72 was less than stellar, and although he had a decent FIP of 4.01 it was buoyed by a lower than average HR/FB rate, a particularly impressive achievement in DNYS.
That’s not to say it’s all doom and gloom for Nova. Even his xFIP, which corrects for HR/FB rate, was a more than respectable 4.16, which is fine for a middle of the rotation guy. In addition to that, if we go a little deeper into his numbers we can find evidence of the aforementioned genuine development. In this case it’s in his splits through May 28, and his splits afterwards. Why that date? That’s the date his slider appeared to become another weapon.
| dates | ip | bf | h | hr | bb | k | ra | era | fip | xfip |
| 4/4-5/28 | 54 | 246 | 62 | 4 | 24 | 27 | 5.50 | 4.67 | 4.37 | 4.96 |
| 6/3-9/25 | 105 | 431 | 93 | 9 | 33 | 68 | 3.17 | 3.09 | 3.83 | 4.01 |
| Dates | fb% | gb% | ld% | bb/bf | k/bf | babip | hr/fb |
| 4/4-5/28 | 28.4% | 54.2% | 17.4% | 9.8% | 11.0% | .312 | 7.4% |
| 6/3-9/25 | 29.3% | 51.5% | 19.1% | 7.7% | 15.8% | .267 | 9.5% |
bf: batters faced
fip: Fielding independent pitching
xfip: Expected fip (uses league average hr/fb rate instead of actual hr)
fb% Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
gb% Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
ld% Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
bb/bf: walks per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
babip: batting average on balls in play
Nova’s ERA/RA was still a bit better than you’d expect from his peripherals post-slider, but they support the notion that Nova can be a capable starting pitcher in MLB. We always want to be cautious about drawing large meaning from small samples, but changes in walk rate and strikeout rate stabilize more quickly than changes in most other stats, for both pitchers and hitters.
So what about 2012?
2012 Projections
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 129 | 135 | 71 | 65 | 15 | 52 | 80 | 4.93 | 4.50 | 4.52 | 17 | 1.7 |
| davenport | 132 | 131 | 62 | 61 | 13 | 50 | 79 | 4.24 | 4.17 | 4.33 | 27 | 2.7 |
| marcel | 144 | 138 | 65 | 59 | 12 | 49 | 98 | 4.06 | 3.69 | 3.85 | 27 | 2.7 |
| oliver | 170 | 178 | 89 | 81 | 16 | 63 | 103 | 4.74 | 4.30 | 4.23 | 21 | 2.1 |
| pecota | 156 | 177 | 96 | 87 | 18 | 62 | 90 | 5.53 | 5.03 | 4.64 | 8 | 0.8 |
| steamer | 165 | 174 | 93 | 85 | 15 | 68 | 102 | 5.08 | 4.61 | 4.27 | 12 | 1.2 |
| zips | 178 | 189 | 94 | 88 | 20 | 60 | 111 | 4.74 | 4.44 | 4.33 | 20 | 2.0 |
| average | 153 | 160 | 81 | 75 | 15 | 58 | 95 | 4.76 | 4.39 | 4.31 | 19 | 1.9 |
| 2011 | 165 | 163 | 74 | 68 | 13 | 57 | 98 | 4.03 | 3.71 | 3.98 | 35 | 3.5 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average as frames of reference. League average is based on role (starters vs. relievers), and is not adjusted for park so unlike with hitters mentally adjust that up a bit.
The consensus now is that Nova can be a bit better than league average, particularly if you give him a full starter’s workload. That’s a big step up from his projections entering last year and that’s probably a solid #3 in an average MLB rotation, at a cost-controlled salary. I think his 16-4 record in 2011 may lead the MSM and some fans to overrate him, but that’s not his fault. You’d have to imagine the Yankees hope to see him more like a #5 should they get a healthy and effective Phil Hughes and Michael Pineda this year, but I don’t really like the odds of both of those things happening right now.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 194 | 186 | 94 | 85 | 16 | 67 | 133 | 4.34 | 3.94 | 3.84 | 38 | 3.8 |
| 65% | 168 | 168 | 87 | 79 | 16 | 62 | 110 | 4.64 | 4.22 | 4.18 | 27 | 2.7 |
| Baseline | 129 | 135 | 71 | 65 | 15 | 52 | 80 | 4.93 | 4.50 | 4.51 | 17 | 1.7 |
| 35% | 103 | 113 | 60 | 55 | 13 | 44 | 60 | 5.22 | 4.78 | 4.84 | 10 | 1.0 |
| 20% | 90 | 103 | 55 | 51 | 13 | 41 | 50 | 5.52 | 5.06 | 5.17 | 6 | 0.6 |
CAIRO is actually less sanguine on Nova than the average projection, but that 65% forecast is probably about what you’d expect if he were to repeat his 2011 with a bit less of the good fortune in HR/FB rate and BABIP.
I’d probably be more worried about Nova’s 6.86 spring training ERA if he hadn’t walked one hitter and struck out 14 of them. But since he has, I’m not. He may end up out of the rotation if everyone is healthy and effective this year, but that never really happens.
Freddy Garcia
I have to admit I expected nothing out of either Freddy Garcia or Bartolo Colon last year. At this point it seems like Garcia is superfluous, but at the time he was signed the Yankee rotation was CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Ivan Nova and 2011 Phil Hughes. That the Yankees subsequently added three pitchers who are probably better options for the rotation than Garcia isn’t his fault, and I’ve seen no evidence that he hasn’t acted professionally even though his short and long-term role on the Yankees has been in doubt. With Michael Pineda out with tendinitis and Andy Pettitte working his way back from retirement, Garcia will open the year in the rotation.
2010 & 2011 Projections
| projecton | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR | BABIP |
| cairo | 31 | 31 | 32 | 17 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 4.94 | 4.65 | 4.62 | 2 | 0.2 | .292 |
| marcel | 25 | 144 | 152 | 76 | 72 | 18 | 44 | 91 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.54 | 12 | 1.2 | .291 |
| oliver | 18 | 101 | 111 | 63 | 60 | 15 | 29 | 62 | 5.64 | 5.35 | 4.76 | -2 | -0.2 | .294 |
| pecota | 20 | 109 | 119 | 63 | 58 | 17 | 33 | 68 | 5.23 | 4.81 | 4.97 | 3 | 0.3 | .291 |
| zips | 15 | 82 | 90 | 47 | 44 | 12 | 23 | 51 | 5.16 | 4.83 | 4.77 | 3 | 0.3 | .295 |
| average* | 22 | 93 | 101 | 53 | 50 | 13 | 28 | 59 | 5.14 | 4.82 | 4.75 | 4 | 0.4 | .292 |
| 2010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #### | ###### | ##### | ##### | ##### |
| 2011 | 25 | 141 | 146 | 63 | 59 | 16 | 44 | 93 | 4.03 | 3.77 | 4.29 | 23 | 2.3 | .292 |
RA/ERA: Runs/Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher(park and role-adjusted, using RA)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play
I guess the most amazing thing is going from not pitching at all in 2010 to giving the team 141 strong innings. His FIP is probably a better indicator of how effective Garcia actually was, but he certainly blew away every projection.
2011
Garcia doesn’t throw had anymore. He came up throwing in the mid-90s but injuries have him sitting around 87 mph with his fastball, which has forced him to become more reliant on his secondary stuff. In some ways he was like a less-effective Mike Mussina circa 2008. Garcia increased his use of his split finger fastball last year, including one that was used in a physics lecture in Australia about how to curve a baseball. He had a higher than typical percentage of runners left on base and like Nova allowed a few less HRs per fly ball than an average pitcher. Throw in another year of aging and it’s probably a safe bet he won’t be quite as effective as last year, but here’s what the projections say.
2012 Projections
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 102 | 112 | 51 | 48 | 12 | 30 | 64 | 4.55 | 4.28 | 4.28 | 17 | 1.7 |
| davenport | 56 | 60 | 32 | 31 | 8 | 17 | 31 | 5.12 | 4.96 | 4.73 | 6 | 0.6 |
| marcel | 149 | 156 | 72 | 67 | 17 | 46 | 97 | 4.36 | 4.06 | 4.19 | 23 | 2.3 |
| oliver | 136 | 150 | 73 | 68 | 16 | 39 | 79 | 4.84 | 4.50 | 4.31 | 14 | 1.4 |
| pecota | 126 | 140 | 72 | 67 | 17 | 37 | 83 | 5.13 | 4.78 | 4.40 | 7 | 0.7 |
| steamer | 113 | 121 | 61 | 57 | 15 | 30 | 69 | 4.88 | 4.54 | 4.41 | 11 | 1.1 |
| zips | 128 | 143 | 74 | 69 | 18 | 40 | 75 | 5.20 | 4.85 | 4.64 | 8 | 0.8 |
| average | 116 | 126 | 63 | 59 | 15 | 34 | 71 | 4.87 | 4.57 | 4.42 | 12 | 1.2 |
| 2011 | 146 | 152 | 63 | 59 | 16 | 45 | 96 | 3.88 | 3.63 | 4.09 | 23 | 2.3 |
| LgAvg | 146 | 148 | 75 | 68 | 17 | 46 | 107 | 4.60 | 4.21 | 4.21 |
Not surprising that Garcia’s expected to drop across the board, although Davenport, PECOTA and ZiPS are expecting a major fall off. Still, as the ostensible seventh starter on the team you could do worse.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 152 | 152 | 66 | 62 | 13 | 36 | 108 | 3.91 | 3.66 | 3.55 | 37 | 3.7 |
| 65% | 132 | 138 | 62 | 58 | 14 | 35 | 88 | 4.23 | 3.97 | 3.93 | 27 | 2.7 |
| Baseline | 102 | 112 | 51 | 48 | 12 | 30 | 64 | 4.55 | 4.28 | 4.30 | 17 | 1.7 |
| 35% | 81 | 94 | 44 | 41 | 11 | 26 | 48 | 4.86 | 4.59 | 4.67 | 11 | 1.1 |
| 20% | 71 | 86 | 41 | 39 | 11 | 24 | 39 | 5.18 | 4.89 | 5.03 | 7 | 0.7 |
I think in this case the 35% forecast is probably closer to how Garcia will perform and how often he’ll pitch. There’s a lot of uncertainty with Andy Pettitte and Michael Pineda that could end up with the Yankees needing him more often than that though, and I’m not sure counting on a full season out of Phil Hughes is wise yet. Garcia could still be expendable if the Yankees feel his innings can be mostly replaced by some combination of Adam Warren, David Phelps, D.J. Mitchell, Dellin Betances or Manny Banuelos, but they probably have some time to determine that.
The Yankees’ postseason hopes if they should make it by some miracle may not be affected all that much by Nova and Garcia. You’d have to think the postseason rotation would contain some combination of CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, Michael Pineda and/or Andy Pettitte. But you do have to get there first, and Nova and Garcia can be big parts of that.
Sunday, April 1, 2012
NJ.com: Yankees’ Cesar Cabral suffers injury as his bullpen shot fades
“It’s frustrating, because he had a really good camp for us,” manager Joe Girardi said.
Cabral, who will be placed on the 15-day disabled list, allowed just two earned runs in 11⅓ innings this spring. He had been battling with veteran Clay Rapada, who will likely begin the season as the second lefty.
The Yankees acquired Cabral via the Rule 5 draft, though his stay on the DL will allow the team to retain his rights.
I guess this makes it easier to keep Cabral in the organization, which I think is a good thing.
Friday, March 30, 2012
NY Times: Yankees Still Aren’t Certain About Rotation
“I know these guys are anxious to find out what we believe their schedules are going to be and when they’re going to pitch,” Girardi said Thursday before the Yankees played the Baltimore Orioles. “We’re just not quite there yet.”
Girardi said the issue would be discussed over the next few days in meetings with him, members of his staff and General Manager Brian Cashman and his staff. The hope, Girardi said, is to come up with a final five by Monday, but they are still collecting information as the pitchers make their final spring starts.
I’m pretty sure they’ve made their decision, and they’re just figuring out how to tell the one who’s not in it. I hope they’re not considering a six man rotation, but considering how frequently this team chooses the sub-optimal option it wouldn’t surprise me.
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Looking Ahead to 2012 - Michael Pineda
In a move that came out of nowhere, the Yankees traded Jesus Montero, their top prospect, for Michael Pineda. Pineda had a very good rookie year for Seattle in 2011, but getting him came at a heavy price. It’ll probably take at least five years to see if the trade was worth it, but it’s already been analyzed and judged heavily and will surely continue to be.
2011
Pineda wasn’t a lock to make the Mariners’ rotation out of spring training last year, but he made the team thanks to a good spring training. His first half/second half splits have been beaten to death, but I’ll re-post this table that I posted right after the trade.
| pitcher | fb% | gb% | ld% | bb/bf | k/bf | babip | hr/fb | fip | xfip |
| A | 49.1% | 31.4% | 19.5% | 7.9% | 24.7% | .249 | 5.9% | 3.01 | 3.98 |
| B | 37.8% | 44.2% | 18.0% | 7.9% | 25.1% | .296 | 15.4% | 4.01 | 3.42 |
fb% Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
gb% Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
ld% Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
bb/bf: walks per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
babip: batting average on balls in play
fip: Fielding independent pitching
xfip: Expected fip (uses league average hr/fb rate instead of actual hr)
A is Pineda through July 4, and B is Pineda afterwards.
If you go by ERA, Pineda was much worse in the second half (2.58 through July 4, 5.71 after). However, there’s a lot of noise in ERA that isn’t necessarily related to the pitcher’s performance. Every peripheral stat of Pineda’s except for his HR/FB rate and his BABIP was better in the second half, and those are probably the two most volatile stats a pitcher can have.
Stats are only part of the story, but what about his stuff? Here are Pineda’s average velocities by pitch type for each month in 2011.
| Month | FFv | SLv | CHv |
| 4 | 95.4 | 84.2 | 87.2 |
| 5 | 95.3 | 84.8 | 87.4 |
| 6 | 94.4 | 83.7 | 86.4 |
| 7 | 94.7 | 83.7 | 86.6 |
| 8 | 94.0 | 84.3 | 85.9 |
| 9 | 93.6 | 83.0 | 85.7 |
| All | 94.7 | 84.0 | 86.3 |
FFv: Four-seam fastball velocity
SLv: Slider velocity
CHv: Changeup velocity
Here are Pineda’s average four-seam fastball velocities for each game in 2011.
4/5: 95.2
4/12: 95.5
4/17: 97.2
4/22: 95.5
4/28: 95.2
5/4: 96.9
5/10: 95.8
5/16: 94.5
5/21: 94.0
5/27: 95.3
6/1: 94.1
6/6: 95.7
6/11: 95.2
6/17: 94.2
6/23: 93.0
6/28: 94.1
7/4: 93.9
7/9: 94.6
7/19: 95.4
7/24: 94.6
7/30: 94.8
8/9: 94.7
8/15: 94.5
8/21: 92.8
8/27: 94.1
9/3: 93.6
9/10: 94.7
9/21: 91.4
There was a gradual decrease as the season wore on, and the big drop between 9/10 and 9/21 is a little alarming, but he only threw 44 fastballs in that 9/21 game(out of 81 total pitches) and I don’t know if it’s anything more than a blip. His average fastball velocity through the end of June was 95 mph, and it was 94.1 mph over the rest of the season.
Velocity’s an important part of being a good MLB pitcher, but it’s not the only part. Much has been made about Pineda’s underwhelming velocity so far this spring, where’s he’s topping out below where he averaged last year. He’s also throwing with less velocity than he did last spring. However, he’s not trying to make the team like he was last year, and he’s probably focusing more on developing his changeup which has lagged behind his fastball and slider. Because of that, I think the obsession with his velocity in exhibition games is a little misguided, although I suppose controversy sells and there’s not a whole lot else that’s controversial for this year’s version of the Yankees so far.
2012 Projections
Pineda’s moving from a pitcher’s park to a disgraceful bandbox. Although Seattle has a better defensive reputation than the Yankees, the Yankees’ defensive OF is a good one and as a flyball pitcher he shouldn’t see that much of an impact from any decline in the defense behind him.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 168 | 150 | 82 | 76 | 21 | 53 | 157 | 4.37 | 4.06 | 3.79 | 32 | 3.2 |
| davenport | 165 | 150 | 75 | 74 | 19 | 48 | 141 | 4.10 | 4.04 | 3.74 | 36 | 3.6 |
| marcel | 146 | 118 | 63 | 59 | 15 | 46 | 142 | 3.89 | 3.65 | 3.42 | 30 | 3.0 |
| oliver | 131 | 114 | 52 | 48 | 14 | 37 | 124 | 3.56 | 3.33 | 3.43 | 30 | 3.0 |
| pecota | 148 | 137 | 66 | 62 | 18 | 50 | 136 | 4.02 | 3.77 | 3.84 | 31 | 3.1 |
| steamer | 159 | 147 | 68 | 64 | 19 | 55 | 148 | 3.87 | 3.63 | 3.81 | 33 | 3.3 |
| zips | 158 | 149 | 77 | 72 | 19 | 51 | 143 | 4.40 | 4.11 | 3.86 | 24 | 2.4 |
| average | 153 | 138 | 69 | 65 | 18 | 48 | 142 | 4.03 | 3.80 | 3.70 | 31 | 3.1 |
| 2011 | 171 | 133 | 76 | 71 | 18 | 55 | 173 | 4.00 | 3.74 | 3.40 | 36 | 3.6 |
| LgAvg | 171 | 173 | 87 | 80 | 19 | 54 | 125 | 4.60 | 4.21 | 4.21 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average as frames of reference. League average is based on role (starters vs. relievers), and is not adjusted for park so unlike with hitters mentally adjust that down a bit.
Pineda’s professional innings progression looks like this.
2006: 20.1 IP in Rookie ball
2007: 59.0 IP in Rookie ball
2008: 138.1 IP in Class A
2009: 47.1 IP in Rookie and A+
2010: 139.1 IP in AA and AAA
2011: 171.0 IP in MLB
Pineda missed a large chunk of 2009 with an elbow injury, but returned from that having put on about 25 pounds and a few MPH of velocity. Last year was his career high in innings pitched, and it came in the majors where innings are more stressful due to the greater caliber of competition. That may or may not explain some of his lower velocity, which means he may be able to get it back as his stamina increases. It’s probably worth noting that velocity peaks pretty early in most pitchers’ career, and Pineda may never throw as hard as he did last year. That doesn’t mean he can’t be a good pitcher without it, of course.
Pineda’s projections are reasonably consistent across the board. They’re low on innings since he has never pitched as many innings as he did last year, and ZiPS is probably seeing a rougher transition to the AL East and DNYS than the others. According to Baseball Reference there were 28 AL pitchers that had at least 3.0 WAR last year.
Pineda himself just missed the cut off with 2.8. Pineda’s average projection would qualify for the most basic definition of a #2 starter in the AL (one of the top 28 pitchers in the league). Obviously, we hope for more than that.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 202 | 166 | 87 | 81 | 20 | 55 | 204 | 3.89 | 3.60 | 3.17 | 49 | 4.9 |
| 65% | 185 | 159 | 85 | 79 | 21 | 54 | 180 | 4.13 | 3.83 | 3.48 | 40 | 4.0 |
| Baseline | 168 | 150 | 82 | 76 | 21 | 53 | 157 | 4.37 | 4.06 | 3.79 | 32 | 3.2 |
| 35% | 135 | 125 | 69 | 64 | 19 | 45 | 121 | 4.61 | 4.30 | 4.09 | 22 | 2.2 |
| 20% | 118 | 114 | 64 | 59 | 18 | 42 | 101 | 4.86 | 4.53 | 4.39 | 16 | 1.6 |
The 65% forecast seems like the bare minimum for what Pineda can do to justify being traded for Jesus Montero, who’s going to win the AL MVP and Cy Young. For whatever it’s worth, since 2000 there have been 21 Yankee pitchers who put up a season of 3.9 WAR or more.
I hated seeing Jesus Montero get traded, but Mariners fans also hated seeing Pineda get traded. That probably means that the trade was a fair one. Getting Pineda for Montero made a lot more sense than trading him for a half season of Cliff Lee or for Felix Hernandez being paid at market rate. Pineda’s not as good as either pitcher right now, and may never be, but he’ll be under team control for the next five seasons and he’ll probably be getting paid less than he’s worth and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see him elevate himself into the upper echelon of MLB pitchers if he can refine his changeup and get that fastball back.
Put it this way, if Dellin Betances had done in AAA what Pineda did last year in the majors we’d all be convinced he was on the precipice of being a very good MLB pitcher. Also, throw in the fact that Pineda did this while being a year younger than Betances.
With a pitcher, you assume more risk than you do with a position player. But while Montero had a nice MLB debut, he really hasn’t hit all that well in AAA the last two years and it’s still uncertain he’ll be anything more than a DH. I hope he goes on to have a solid career, while Pineda develops into the best pitcher in baseball and/or pitches them to a few World Series wins. If that happens and Jose Campos develops into an eighth inning guy, the Yankees will have probably won the trade.
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Looking Ahead to 2012 - Phil Hughes
By the time a baseball player’s been in the major leagues for five seasons, you generally have a pretty good idea of what he is. In Phil Hughes’s case we know that
a) He was arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball at one time (Baseball America had him as the #2 prospect behind Daisuke Matsuzaka in 2007.
b) He came up at age 21 and carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning of his second start before injuring his hamstring and missing a large chunk of the year. He returned from that injury and ended the season by giving the team 72 league average innings.
c) He followed that up by being awful and then getting injured again in 2008.
d) He started 2009 in the minors but was called up when Chien-Ming Wang went on the DL. He didn’t pitch all that well over his first seven starts and when Wang returned from the DL he was shifted to the bullpen instead of the minors. He then proceeded to outpitch every single reliever in the American League over the rest of the season.
e) He built on that by storming out of the gate as a full-fledged rotation member in 2010, making the All Star team. Unfortunately, his second half wasn’t quite as good.
Then came 2011.
2011
Hughes’s velocity was down all spring in 2011. While the Yankees kept saying publically they weren’t concerned about it, it never got better and after Hughes gave the team three dreadful starts of 13.94 ERA they determined he had tendinitis and he was shut down for a few months. Hughes was better upon returning, but not great as he finished the year with a 4.48 ERA over his final 65.1 innings.
So all this is a really long way of saying that even though Phil Hughes is entering his sixth major league season, we really have no idea what he is.
2012 Projections
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Hughes came into camp in great shape this year. His velocity has been better than it was at this time last year and he seems to have better secondary stuff as well. Although we have no idea what Hughes is, that doesn’t stop us silly forecasters from trying to forecast him anyway.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 95 | 97 | 49 | 47 | 12 | 32 | 74 | 4.63 | 4.49 | 4.26 | 15 | 1.5 |
| davenport | 147 | 144 | 74 | 73 | 18 | 44 | 109 | 4.53 | 4.47 | 4.09 | 25 | 2.5 |
| marcel | 103 | 98 | 50 | 49 | 12 | 34 | 84 | 4.37 | 4.28 | 3.96 | 16 | 1.6 |
| oliver | 119 | 118 | 54 | 53 | 14 | 39 | 94 | 4.11 | 4.03 | 4.02 | 18 | 1.8 |
| pecota | 135 | 129 | 59 | 58 | 16 | 46 | 119 | 3.92 | 3.84 | 3.89 | 22 | 2.2 |
| steamer | 107 | 107 | 52 | 51 | 15 | 37 | 82 | 4.40 | 4.31 | 4.45 | 16 | 1.6 |
| zips | 123 | 127 | 71 | 66 | 18 | 44 | 96 | 5.21 | 4.84 | 4.55 | 7 | 0.7 |
| average | 118 | 117 | 59 | 57 | 15 | 40 | 94 | 4.45 | 4.32 | 4.18 | 17 | 1.7 |
| 2011 | 74 | 84 | 48 | 48 | 9 | 27 | 47 | 5.82 | 5.82 | 4.56 | 4.4 | 0.4 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
For more information on the projections above you can look at the first post in this series.
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average as frames of reference. League average is based on role (starters vs. relievers), and is not adjusted for park so unlike with hitters mentally adjust that down a bit.
The projections expect a better Hughes in 2012, closer to his 2010 than his 2011 albeit in fewer innings. Despite CAIRO’s Yankee bias, it’s not even the most bullish on Hughes, until we look at these.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 190 | 175 | 83 | 81 | 18 | 53 | 165 | 3.96 | 3.84 | 3.35 | 45 | 4.5 |
| 65% | 142 | 139 | 68 | 66 | 16 | 44 | 117 | 4.30 | 4.16 | 3.76 | 28 | 2.8 |
| Baseline | 95 | 97 | 49 | 47 | 12 | 32 | 74 | 4.63 | 4.49 | 4.18 | 15 | 1.5 |
| 35% | 76 | 82 | 42 | 41 | 11 | 28 | 56 | 4.96 | 4.82 | 4.58 | 10 | 1.0 |
| 20% | 47 | 54 | 28 | 27 | 8 | 19 | 33 | 5.29 | 5.14 | 4.96 | 4 | 0.4 |
I really think that 80% forecast is in his range, although I would put the FIP closer to the ERA.
It’s easy to forget that Hughes is still just 26 years old. He hasn’t been the superstar we hoped he’d be when he was in the minors, but overall he’s been about league average. If he’s ever going to take a step forward, a year before potential free agency seems like the time to do it.
Monday, March 26, 2012
NYDailyNews: Yankees’ Phil Hughes wraps up spot in starting rotation early: source
TAMPA — The Yankees are unlikely to make anything official for another week or so, but it appears that Phil Hughes has captured a spot in the rotation.
According to a source, “it would be a shock” if Hughes wasn’t one of the Yankees’ five starters when the season opened, as his spring has given the Bombers hope that the 18-game winner of 2010 is back.
Hughes threw six innings of two-run ball in a minor-league game at the Yankees’ complex Monday, continuing his impressive spring and taking another step toward putting his hellish 2011 season behind him.
“I’ve done everything I can do,” Hughes said. “Whatever direction they want to go in, it’s their call. I feel like right now, I’m doing everything I can to make that decision as hard as possible. That’s all I really wanted to do.”
Sunday, March 25, 2012
NYDailyNews: Yankees’ Freddy Garcia a hit again in return to mound vs. Detroit Tigers
Garcia has a 2.91 ERA in four spring starts, allowing 10 hits in 12.1 innings while striking out 11 and walking four. Girardi said he probably won’t decide on the back end of the Yankee rotation until April 3 or 4, meaning there is still time for Garcia to impress.
Garcia says he doesn’t mind the competition for a job, noting that “it’s making my thinking straight you concentrate better on what you’re doing.” But he did admit, “The way I pitched (Saturday), I needed it. I’m glad I pitched good.
“I’m glad I could come back and pitch. That’s really important, because we’re in competition. I don’t want to lose any starts.”
It’s nice to see Freddy Garcia pitching well after getting hit in the hand by a comebacker a couple weeks ago. The Yankees may not have 16 aces, but Freddy and Phil have so far shown they could be in the starting rotation of almost any team outside of New England.
Friday, March 23, 2012
NY Times: Garcia Prefers to Stay With Yankees, but Would Consider Trade
“I want to pitch, man,” he said. “Be it here or somewhere. I hope it’s here.”
Garcia stressed that he had not asked for a trade and had no immediate plans to do so. But if the Yankees come to him with a proposal, he said, he is certainly willing to think it over.
“I am always open,” he said. “I’d like to listen to what they say. But it’s not up to me. I have to wait until next week and see what they want to do. I cannot start talking about it if nothing has happened yet.”
Seems to me that Garcia’s handling this about as well as could be expected. I haven’t seen any evidence that he’s complaining, just speculation that he would be.
Pettitte also said that when he arrived Tuesday, Garcia came up to him in the weight room and they had a nice chat about the situation.
“I like him,” Garcia said. “He just said, ‘We have to win.’ I said, ‘We’ll figure out something.’ ”
Garcia said that he was not upset when he first learned Pettitte was returning and that his reaction that day was misconstrued as frustration.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
NY Post: Yankees see ‘night and day’ improvment from Hughes
“Night and day,” manager Joe Girardi said, comparing this year’s Hughes to a year ago. “He looks like the guy we had two years ago ... with an improved changeup.”
Hughes hopes that’s enough to get him back to where he was when he won 18 games. His spring ERA is 2.02 after he gave up two runs — when Matt Joyce launched a cutter over the center-field fence in the second — over five innings in a 5-2 Yankees win.
“There’s always a need for good pitching and as long as I go out and pitch well and am one of those guys, there’s gonna be a spot,” Hughes said. “Andy Pettitte [coming back], I don’t think about that. Six starters for five spots, I don’t think about that.”
That’s easier this year than last, when it appeared his arm was about to fall off. And while his velocity still hasn’t returned to the pre-2011 levels, he did hit 93 mph and also featured an effective changeup, which was consistently 10 mph slower than his fastball.
“I really hadn’t gotten a chance to throw as many changeups as I wanted to,” Hughes said of this spring.
But yesterday, he finished off two of his three strikeouts with the pitch.
“I took a step forward today,” Hughes said. “I haven’t had a great feel of it, ever.”
Last year, Phil Hughes ranked in the bottom 5% in wOBA and bottom 8% in swing-and-miss percentage in two-strike counts. It’s too early to know whether his change is going to be an effective pitch in 2012. But if it is, maybe we won’t be such Negative Nancies when Phil gets to two strikes this year.
Monday, March 19, 2012
Looking Ahead to 2012 - CC Sabathia
I haven’t gone through the rest of the bench but I’m going to wait until we have an idea of who will be on it on Opening Day. So it’s time to move on to the pitching projections. We’ll start with the ace of the staff, CC Sabathia.
2011
Sabathia had his best season as a Yankee in 2011. He put up an ERA+ of 147 which was better than his 137 and 136 marks in 2009 and 2010 respectively. Despite that, his season felt a bit disappointing because of how it finished. The turning point appears to have been his July 26 start against Seattle. Sabathia was dominating the Mariners through six innings. He had retired all 18 batters he faced and struck out 11 of them. There was a short rain delay, and CC returned to the mound to strike out Ichiro!
Unfortunately, Brendan Ryan then singled to break up the perfecto. CC struck out the next two hitters to finish off the seventh but he walked the first three hitters to start the eighth. He managed to get out of it with allowing just one run and some kid named Rivera closed it out.
So why do I think that game was some kind of turning point?
| dates | ip | bf | h | hr | bb | k | ra | era | fip | xfip |
| 3/31-7/26 | 169 | 686 | 143 | 6 | 45 | 156 | 2.93 | 2.56 | 2.48 | 3.37 |
| 8/1-9/21 | 61 | 269 | 80 | 9 | 14 | 68 | 4.40 | 4.26 | 3.45 | 2.70 |
| Dates | fb% | gb% | ld% | bb/bf | k/bf | babip | hr/fb |
| 3/31-7/26 | 30.4% | 48.2% | 21.4% | 6.6% | 22.7% | .293 | 4.2% |
| 8/1-9/21 | 28.4% | 43.8% | 27.8% | 5.2% | 25.3% | .425 | 18.0% |
bf: batters faced
fip: Fielding independent pitching
xfip: Expected fip (uses league average hr/fb rate instead of actual hr)
fb% Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
gb% Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
ld% Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
bb/bf: walks per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
babip: batting average on balls in play
I don’t like to attribute all babip fluctuations to luck, but the truth is Sabathia’s peripherals were arguably better over the last two months of the season. It just didn’t translate to his results.
In ALDS Game 1 vs. Detroit CC looked overpowering, better than Justin Verlander, but then the rains came again and he was out after two innings. He took the hill again for Game 3 but wasn’t good, and he made a final appearance in relief in Game 5 and gave up the run that ended up being the difference in the series.
CC had an opt-out in his contract after the season and there was some legitimate concern that he’d opt out, but the Yankees were able to keep him in the fold by adding a year to his contract at a salary that bumped him back up to being the highest-paid pitcher in baseball. Given the overall body of work over his first three seasons I don’t think many Yankee fans are upset about having him around for another year.
2012 Projections
Sabathia’s the clear #1 starter on the Yankees, and probably their most valuable player right now. Here are his projections for 2012.
| Projection | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| cairo | 227 | 218 | 90 | 82 | 19 | 64 | 201 | 3.57 | 3.24 | 3.23 | 63 | 6.3 |
| davenport | 210 | 192 | 90 | 89 | 18 | 60 | 172 | 3.86 | 3.81 | 3.44 | 52 | 5.2 |
| marcel | 203 | 189 | 80 | 73 | 16 | 59 | 179 | 3.55 | 3.24 | 3.24 | 50 | 5.0 |
| oliver | 233 | 225 | 101 | 92 | 18 | 64 | 197 | 3.88 | 3.54 | 3.24 | 49 | 4.9 |
| pecota | 217 | 204 | 85 | 77 | 19 | 52 | 195 | 3.52 | 3.21 | 3.16 | 57 | 5.7 |
| steamer | 219 | 205 | 96 | 88 | 21 | 68 | 196 | 3.96 | 3.61 | 3.49 | 44 | 4.4 |
| zips | 218 | 211 | 92 | 86 | 19 | 63 | 189 | 3.80 | 3.55 | 3.36 | 47 | 4.7 |
| average | 218 | 206 | 90 | 84 | 19 | 61 | 190 | 3.73 | 3.46 | 3.31 | 52 | 5.2 |
| 2011 | 237 | 230 | 87 | 79 | 17 | 61 | 230 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.85 | 66 | 6.6 |
| LgAvg | 237 | 239 | 121 | 111 | 27 | 75 | 174 | 4.60 | 4.21 | 4.21 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average as frames of reference. League average is based on role (starters vs. relievers), and is not adjusted for park so unlike with hitters mentally adjust that down a bit.
For pitchers, I’m using the following projections.
CAIRO, my own projection system.
Clay Davenport, formerly of Baseball Prospectus’s projections
An unofficial version of Tangotiger’s Marcel, which were run using code provided by Jeff Sackmann.
Oliver, from the Hardball Times Forecasts.
PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus.
ZiPS, courtesy of Dan Szymborski at Baseball Think Factory.
A new addition for the pitchers is Steamer. The hitter projections weren’t ready when I started this so I didn’t include them, but according to this article Steamer was the only thing that prevented CAIRO from being the best pitching projection system last year. Steamer is similar to Marcel, but incorporates velocity data as well and it seemed to help it leap to the top of the 2011 projections.
There appears to be two distinct sets of projections here.
CAIRO/Marcel/PECOTA: 3.54 RA, 3.23 ERA, 3.21 FIP
Davenport/Oliver/Steamer/ZiPS: 3.87 RA, 3.63 ERA, 3.38 FIP
I think the first group is closer to the truth.
CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
| % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 245 | 220 | 87 | 79 | 15 | 60 | 233 | 3.19 | 2.88 | 2.67 | 79 | 7.9 |
| 65% | 236 | 219 | 89 | 80 | 17 | 62 | 217 | 3.38 | 3.06 | 2.90 | 71 | 7.1 |
| Baseline | 227 | 218 | 90 | 82 | 19 | 64 | 201 | 3.57 | 3.24 | 3.14 | 63 | 6.3 |
| 35% | 204 | 203 | 85 | 78 | 19 | 61 | 175 | 3.76 | 3.42 | 3.37 | 53 | 5.3 |
| 20% | 182 | 186 | 80 | 73 | 18 | 57 | 150 | 3.95 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 43 | 4.3 |
Sign me up for that 80% forecast.
The Yankees rotation is probably the deepest it’s been in years. That being said, there’s CC and there’s everyone else. I am pretty sure the group of Hiroki Kuroda, Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes and Andy Pettitte will project similarly to each other, with Freddy Garcia a bit behind them. But none of them can replace Sabathia. CC lost some weight this offseason to help reduce the strain on his knees. Of course he did that last year too but seemed to gain it all back by year-end.
Let’s hope he can stay healthy and give the Yankees another great year.
Friday, March 2, 2012
Klapisch: Yankees’ Mariano Rivera tried but failed to teach signature pitch
It’s not uncommon for pitchers to teach and enlighten each other. It’s actually a ritual, in fact. Everyone tries to crack the code on the perfect pitch, which is why Mariano Rivera has spent most of his career explaining what makes his cutter so lethal.
But unlike the change-up, which the Yankees believe Pineda will eventually master, it’s unlikely anyone will ever clone Rivera’s cutter. As the Yankees’ closer approaches retirement, the cutter will ride off into the sunset with him. Like some endangered species, the mysterious, awe-inspiring break that has been Rivera’s signature since 1997 will be nothing more than a memory this time next year.
“Anyone who’s ever asked, I show them the grip, the release, how I control it, anything they want,” Rivera said. “But so far, no one’s got it.”
Thinking about a Mo-less Yankees team makes me a sad panda.
Monday, February 13, 2012
WSJ: Where Burnett Places In the Pantheon of Busts
If his Yankee career is over after three years, a 34-35 record, and a 4.79 ERA, then we can finally assess Burnett’s place in the Yankee pantheon—of free agent busts. Before the 2009 season, the Yankees promised Burnett $82.5 million over five years. Various reports indicate that the Pirates could pick up between $10 million and $13 million of the remaining $33 million the Yankees owe Burnett—meaning the Yankees will pay Burnett roughly $70 million for a total of 3.4 Wins Above Replacement, a stat that measures a player’s total value over that of a triple-A call-up, according to Baseball-Reference.com.
How does that measure up against some of the other long-term, little-return contracts the Yankees have handed out in the Derek Jeter era? Will Burnett be remembered as poorly as big-name busts like Kenny Rogers, Kei Igawa, and Carl Pavano?
This deal seems to be taking too long to materialize, making me think Pittsburgh is starting to get wise. We need more articles written about Game Two to help sway their front office.
Sunday, February 12, 2012
TGS: Pirates lead A.J. Burnett talks
The two teams haven’t agreed on the dollar figure the Yankees will eat to facilitate the trade, and they haven’t agreed on the players that the Pirates will send to the Yankees.
But they have found enough common ground that Pittsburgh is now the clear front-runner.
A source familiar with the negotiations had told ESPNNewYork’s Wallace Matthews on Saturday that the talks had “legs” and were “real.”
But Pirates right fielder Garrett Jones, a left-handed bat whom the Yankees coveted, had been taken off the table, according to the source.
With the serious trade talks going on the Yankees have paused their pursuit of a designated hitter in the free agent market.
They are doing so, a baseball official said, because they want to see if they receive someone who could DH in a possible deal for Burnett.
Apparently, the Yankees “don’t love” the two minor leaguers the Pirates have offered in a potential A.J. Burnett trade.
Friday, February 10, 2012
ESPN: How good will Pineda be?
In a conversation with Wallace Matthews, pitching coach Larry Rothschild wouldn’t declare where Pineda will pitch in the rotation.
“He’s a young kid so I don’t know if we want him coming out second or if it’s beneficial to have somebody else do it,” Rothschild said. “[Ivan] Nova had a fine year for us, so he could be in that spot.”
Pineda, just 23, almost definitely won’t be the No. 2 starter to begin the year. The Yankees will want to temper expectations considering the pressure of being traded for Jesus Montero is on Pineda’s right shoulder. So Pineda probably won’t be on the mound that first weekend in Tampa.
They should probably just designate him as the “Sixth Inning Guy” right now.
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
The Star-Ledger: Yankees’ Manny Banuelos among spring-training invitees again
Yankees pitching prospect Manny Banuelos will be back at spring training this season.
The heralded 20-year-old was one of 14 invitees the team announced today.
The Yankees also officially announced they have signed 13 players to minor-league contracts, including Russell Branyan, Manny Delcarmen, Bill Hall, Hideki Okajima and Dewayne Russell.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
TGS NY An arm for a bat?
And with the addition of Kuroda and Michael Pineda to the rotation, the Yankees certainly would appear to have a surplus of starting pitching.
In that case, someone—either Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett or Freddy Garcia—has to go somewhere. It would be silly, of course, to ask you which should go. That is one vote Mr. Burnett would win in a landslide. But moving an underachieving 35-year-old pitcher with $33 million remaining on his contract is about as easy as moving a grand piano up five flights of stairs.
So it’s more likely going to be Hughes or Garcia. Hughes, obviously, has value in the bullpen. Freddy has never really worked there. So it would seem that Garcia is the more likely candidate if the Yankees chose to trade a pitcher for a DH. (Don’t ask me who they would get because I’m through trying to guess the GM’s next move; as in the Pineda deal, I assume Cashman will come up with a name none of us have thought of.)
I think trading Hughes now is a bad idea because his value is probably the lowest it’s ever been. I still think he’s got a chance to be a #2/#3 starter but his window of opportunity is closing. With CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda and Ivan Nova under team control for the next five years and with Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances working their way towards the majors another bad season probably pushes him into the bullpen or even out of the organization.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Pitcher A vs. Pitcher B
| pitcher | fb% | gb% | ld% | bb/bf | k/bf | babip | hr/fb | fip | xfip |
| A | 49.1% | 31.4% | 19.5% | 7.9% | 24.7% | .249 | 5.9% | 3.01 | 3.98 |
| B | 37.8% | 44.2% | 18.0% | 7.9% | 25.1% | .296 | 15.4% | 4.01 | 3.42 |
fb% Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
gb% Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
ld% Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
bb/bf: walks per batters faced
k/bf: strikeouts per batters faced
babip: batting average on balls in play
fip: Fielding independent pitching
xfip: Expected fip (uses league average hr/fb rate instead of actual hr)
If this was all the data you had on two pitchers, which one would you expect to be better in the following season?
Michael Pineda’s Hit Locations
I found this really cool site while trying to find batted ball locations off Michael Pineda to see how many of his flyball outs in Safeco would have been HRs in DNYS. The site lets you look at any player and superimpose their hit locations from one stadium to a different one. I have to say, the answer surprised me.
Red dots are outs, blue dots are hits.
If dimensions were the only factor, the answer would be none. But they’re not the only factor. Weather and altitude can also affect how a park plays.
The fear that Pineda is a fly ball pitcher who’ll get bombed in DNYS is overblown in my opinion. He may give up a couple of homers he wouldn’t have given up to RF, but having Brett Gardner behind him with a deeper than normal LF probably helps him.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
CBS Sports: Miller: Savvy Yankees hit home run with Pineda, Kuroda
Just a few days after meeting with the representatives for free agent Edwin Jackson, the Yankees became the talk of the industry on what had been a slow Friday night with their stealth move for Pineda, who, at 22, already is within sight of becoming an ace.
“He’s got that kind of stuff,” a scout who spent part of last summer focusing on AL West clubs said Friday night. “If you wanted to be conservative, he’s a No. 2. He’s got velocity, he came up with a slider that got better and better last year and he throws strikes. When he gives up a home run or a hard-hit ball, it does not chase him out of the strike zone.
“He’s got that rare combination of stuff and control. He’s young, he’s not afraid, he’s big, he’s still growing and he’s got makeup. He’s a prize.
“And the Yankees will have, what, five years of control over him? He’s the kind of guy you build around. Holy cow.”
...
By season’s end, over 28 starts, he struck out 173 hitters while walking just 55 over 171 innings. His average fastball was clocked at 94.7 m.p.h., according to FanGraphs.What’s notable about that? The fastballs of only three other AL starters checked in higher: Texas’ Alexi Ogando, Detroit’s Justin Verlander and Tampa Bay’s David Price.
Kuroda? He turns 37 next month. But he gave the Dodgers 202 innings in 2011, going 13-16 with a 3.07 ERA. He’s a competitor with fierce pride.
“Solid No. 3,” the scout said. “He throws strikes, he’s got good stuff, a crisp fastball that’s deceptive and he throws harder than people think. He’s at 90 to 94 with sink down in the zone, a crisp breaking ball and a good split.
“He’s got out pitches. I’d love to have Kuroda.”
If you’re going to trade Montero, trading him for a potential ace with five more years under team control makes it sting a little less.
Anyway, the starting pitcher WAR I posted in the last thread were off, so here is the revised version.
Before
CC Sabathia, 220 IP, 6.1 WAR
Ivan Nova, 190 IP, 2.4 WAR
Phil Hughes, 175 IP, 2.8 WAR
A.J. Burnett, 175 IP, 2.1 WAR
Freddy Garcia, 150 IP, 2.6 WAR
Hector Noesi, 50 IP, 0.3 WAR
Adam Warren, 25 IP, 0.2 WAR
David Phelps, 15 IP, 0.1 WAR
Starters, 1000 IP, 16.6 WAR
After
CC Sabathia, 220 IP, 6.1 WAR
Hiroki Kuroda, 182 IP, 3.1 WAR
Michael Pineda, 168 IP, 3.2 WAR
Ivan Nova, 175 IP, 2.2 WAR
Phil Hughes, 100 IP, 1.6 WAR
A.J. Burnett, 100 IP, 1.2 WAR
Freddy Garcia, 100 IP, 1.7 WAR
Starters, 1045 IP, 19.1 WAR
So figure something in the area of a 2.5 win upgrade in the rotation, more if they can split those Burnett innings between Hughes and Garcia.
Monday, November 28, 2011
CBS New York: Why The Yankees’ Search For An Elite Starter Has Stalled
Depending on which sources and rumors you believe, the Yankees have discussed internally what kind of trade package it would take to bring a talent like Matt Cain, Gio Gonzalez, Dan Haren or Matt Garza to the Bronx.
...
Ideally, Cashman would prefer to give up Jesus Montero and two or three B-level prospects to acquire Garza or Gonzalez and proceed with the plan to groom Nunez as Derek Jeter’s eventual replacement.
Really? That sounds like an awful plan.
I don’t get the Gio Gonzalez love. His walk rate stinks, and I think he’d be exposed away from the AL West and his home park that suppresses offense. I’m convinced he’d be a major disappointment if he’s acquired.
Saturday, November 19, 2011
NJ.com: Carig: For Yankees, new budgeted approach runs contrary to ‘blank-check’ spending
Instead, according to people with knowledge of the team’s thinking who requested anonymity to speak candidly, the Yankees came away from the GM meetings Thursday skeptical of their willingness to meet the asking price of top free agents such as pitcher C.J. Wilson or Japanese star pitcher Yu Darvish.
Wilson is reportedly seeking a six-year deal for $90 million. And if Darvish elects to pitch in the U.S., his price tag could be in the same neighborhood because of the posting fee teams would pay for the right to negotiate.
Hmmm. $90M/6 years for Wilson seems about right to me.
| Year | WAR | Value |
| 2012 | 5.0 | $22,500,000 |
| 2013 | 4.3 | $19,350,000 |
| 2014 | 3.6 | $16,200,000 |
| 2015 | 2.9 | $13,050,000 |
| 2016 | 2.2 | $9,900,000 |
| 2017 | 1.5 | $6,750,000 |
| 19.5 | $87,750,000 |
CAIRO would project Wilson as a Yankee at around 5.0 WAR for 2012. Using a marginal win value of $4.5M and assuming a decline of 0.7 WAR per year he’d project to be worth somewhere in the area of $88M over six years. Factor in inflation and you’re effectively right at what he’s asking. I suppose there’s a valid concern about Wilson’s ability to hold up as a starter over the next six seasons since he’s only been a starter for two years. Whether or not that means he’s a higher risk for attrition than the typical 0.7 WAR decline would indicate, I don’t know. One one hand, you can say he’s got more pitches left in his arm than the normal 30+ year old pitcher. On the other hand, I’m not sure that relieving in 60-70 games a season is less stressful than starting 30 games a year, particularly when you factor in times warming up.
The Yankees are probably right to be concerned about their payroll going forward, and pitching is supposedly one of their biggest strengths in the minors, so I can understand why they may not want to allocate a lot of money to pitchers that they aren’t completely enamored with. It might mean that they’ll head into 2012 with a lot of uncertainty, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Maybe it forces them to do the unthinkable and try Joba Chamberlain as a starter again, instead of using him as the official sixth inning guy?
Friday, November 18, 2011
Newsday: David Robertson won’t rest on his laurels
With David Robertson coming off a season that ranks among the best any Yankees reliever has ever had, you’d think job security would be the last thing driving him this offseason.
Not so.
“It’s baseball. There’s always someone else who wants to come up and play,” Robertson said Thursday night at the Chateau Briand in Carle Place, where he and his wife, Erin, were honored at Winning Beyond Winning’s annual Gil Hodges Legacy Dinner.
“It’s the big leagues, it’s the New York Yankees. I don’t want to get beat and not do well because I’m not prepared. I’m going to train as hard as I can. I’m going to hold my ground and try to keep my spot.”
Somewhat Interesting Fact of the Day: Robertson’s 40.7% K-rate against lefties last season was third best among all relievers, behind only Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
ESPN.com: Yanks demand a slimmer Phil Hughes
Last season, Hughes was supposed to graduate to become CC Sabathia’s new wingman, the No. 2 starter the Yankees could turn to in the postseason. Instead, he arrived to spring with a couple of extra pounds on his frame and a few miles per hour missing from his fastball. He finished the year 5-5 with a 5.79 ERA.
“He came him into spring training a little bit out of shape,” Cashman said. “Not grossly, not overly, but he wasn’t in optimal position when spring training opened. That is not going to happen in 2012. He had to deal with it. We have what we call ‘fat camp’ so he went into that program to do the extra work to close the gap. You are in better position if you can get that all taken care of in the wintertime.”
Joba was not invited to the fat camp seeing as how he’s just “big boned”.
Also, A-Rod determined to rebound for Yankees:
“I know Yankees fans were disappointed last year, but [they] won’t be next year,” Rodriguez said.
To that end, what is going on in Miami is more vital to the Yankees than what is going on in The Bronx executive offices. Rodriguez has returned home to rebuild, refashion and rehabilitate himself. Both sickened and motivated by how 2011 played out (“There are nights I still have trouble sleeping — we could have been the St. Louis Cardinals.”), Rodriguez triggered his offseason workouts three weeks earlier than normal.
His initial program has been about strengthening and stabilizing a right knee that underwent surgery for a torn meniscus in mid-July. The knee never did seem right late in the year as Rodriguez lost his power stroke and endured the kind of pre-2009 postseason that made him again the enemy of the Yankees state. He kept refusing excuses, but it was clear that he was not 100 percent. He found the pride to get on the field, but could not revive enough of his skills to make his presence matter.
Rodriguez’s strategy is to lose at least five pounds and shake that robotic feeling that haunted him, particularly late in the 2011 campaign. The mantra is get lighter, more flexible, more agile. The term he repeats is “functional movement,” and he says this was his mindset and body condition in 2007-08, “which were the best years of my career.”
Getting that right knee healthy would go a long way towards Rodriguez regaining his swing. As a righty, that knee endures a lot of pressure and motion with every swing - even a little tweak can throw off a batter’s form.
Of course, Rodriguez will be turning 37 next year. Even if close to optimal health, he may not produce like he did in 2008 or even 2009.
But it sure would be nice to see him try.
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
NY Post: Cashman repeats, Yankees want starting pitching
“We have pitchers who are capable, but they’re question marks right now. They could answer the same questions in a positive way, but in fairness—and to be honest—no, obviously there are more developmental steps necessary for some of those guys.”
No one expected Ivan Nova to suddenly develop into a 16-game winner, but Cashman isn’t holding his breath waiting for another young arm to emerge that quickly.
“Are some of them capable of doing what Nova did?” Cashman said of the right-hander, whose forearm the GM said is “100 percent” healthy after seeing team doctors Tuesday. “It’s possible. Is it something you want to count on and expect? I think that’s a dangerous thing to do.”
Agreed. I still think they need a bat too though. At least a RH bat who can play the OF corners and/or 3B,
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
NY Post: Buehrle could become Yankees’ top target
C.J. Wilson is considered the best pitcher on the free agent market in most circles. Yet, when it comes to fitting inside the often hectic Yankees’ universe, several major-league talent evaluators believe Mark Buehrle might be the better fit.
“If you are looking for value, it’s Buehrle because the Yankees have CC Sabathia and aren’t looking for an ace,’’ an AL Central evaluator said of 32-year-old Buehrle, who finished a four-year, $56 million deal with the White Sox this season.
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has spoken briefly with representatives for Roy Oswalt, Edwin Jackson and Wilson, and plans to contact Jeff Berry, who represents Buehrle.
Sunday, November 6, 2011
SportingNews: Yankees’ Cashman contacts C.J. Wilson’s agent
New York Yankees GM Brian Cashman contacted the agent for free agent pitcher C.J. Wilson on Saturday, ESPNNewYork.com reports.
Cashman said the call was just the start of a slow process and that he’s “reaching out to all agents” representing players on the free agent market. No offer was made to Wilson’s agent, Bob Garber.
Friday, November 4, 2011
NY Post: Garcia wants Yankees to bring him back
Freddy Garcia wants to stay in The Bronx, but even he knows he may have to wait to find out if that’s going to happen.
Garcia figures to be a good fit to return to the middle of the Yankees’ rotation, but with the team’s focus on pitching, they could turn their attention to a bigger name to slide in behind CC Sabathia before getting to Garcia.
“I don’t know if the Yankees are going to go for a high-priced guy first,” Garcia’s agent, Peter Greenberg said. “We’ll see what happens.”
Also, Agent for Wilson, Oswalt says pitchers love Yankees. An odd bargaining tactic when compared to the Cliff Lee approach from a year ago.
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
NYDailyNews: Yankees’ interest quickly cools on Texas Rangers’ C.J. Wilson
There had been plenty of talk about the Yankees’ interest in [C.J. Wilson], but most of that centered on the Bombers’ nightmare scenario that had Sabathia trading in his pinstripes for a new uniform.
Now that Sabathia is signed up for five more years, Wilson doesn’t seem to be of much interest to the Yankees.
“They don’t think he’s worth the money he’ll get,” one baseball insider said last week. “He just doesn’t have the track record.”
And the games begin.
More than likely, the Yankees are interested in Wilson. But with CC locked up, the pressure to land a top starter isn’t as great. I actually expect C.J. to stay in Texas, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Yankee swoop in with a better offer.
Also, Yankees talk extension with Russell Martin.
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
MLB.com: Yanks decline righty Brackman’s option
NEW YORK — Pitcher Andrew Brackman has been released by the New York Yankees, four years after signing a contract for a $3.35 million bonus.
New York drafted Brackman in the first round with the 30th pick in 2007, knowing the 6-foot-10 right-hander from North Carolina State likely would need elbow ligament-replacement surgery. He had the operation that Aug 24.
Brackman made his major league debut on Sept. 22 this year and had three appearances, all against Tampa Bay. He allowed one hit and three walks in 2 1-3 scoreless innings.
Also, the Yankees officially announced they have re-signed Brian Cashman for three years to serve as Senior Vice President and General Manager.
Sunday, October 30, 2011
SI.com: Sabathia to opt out of Yankees contract, become free agent
Left-hander CC Sabathia plans to opt out of his long-term contract with the Yankees by the Monday night deadline and become a free agent, SI.com has learned.
Sabathia, 31, has four years worth $92 million left on his current seven-year, $161 million deal but has the option—until midnight Monday—of voiding the final four years.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
ESPN: Yanks meet in Tampa, talk CC Sabathia
TAMPA, Fla.—The New York Yankees held their annual organization meeting on Wednesday, and the main topic of discussion was figuring out a way to keep CC Sabathia in pinstripes.
“We’re close to formulating a plan that we think is fair to everyone involved,” said a high-ranking team official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “The idea is to get this done before he goes out on the open market.’‘
Sabathia, who just completed the third year of his seven-year, $161 million contract, has an opt-out clause that allows him to declare himself a free agent four days after the completion of the World Series.
Ideally, the weather in St. Louis keeps the World Series from ever being completed.
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
NY Post: Sabathia talks with Yankees could push limits
At this moment, the Yankees rotation for next season is A.J. Burnett, Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes and, perhaps, Hector Noesi — or Three Men and a Maybe. Actually it is more akin to a bunch of backup singers in need of a front man. Sabathia would be the most obvious choice in a return engagement and C.J. Wilson could be added as a sidekick.
. . .
In the last go-around, the Yankees quickly offered six years at $138 million — more than the pitching record total of $137.5 million the Mets had given Santana. Attempting to keep Sabathia, Milwaukee bid five years at $100 million. When word circulated that the Angels were about to enter at the six-year, $125 million range, the Brewers began to fashion an offer for about six years at $112 million, hoping to show how the tax implications made the deal on par with that of the Angels. Remember, a belief existed that Sabathia didn’t want to play in New York and wanted to get back toward his West Coast roots, but loved his brief time in Milwaukee. So the Brewers thought they had a shot competing against the Angels if the Yankees really weren’t a factor.
But the Yankees strategy was to be so aggressive as to signal to the other suitors “no matter what you propose, we will blow it away.” And GM Brian Cashman traveled to Sabathia’s Northern California home to finalize a seven-year, $161 million pact.
A few factors, though, are making the Yankees less zealous this time. They are worried about his weight gain and what it means moving forward for a pitcher who already has had two knee surgeries. And even the more aggressive elements within the Yankees hierarchy are chilled by the ramifications of extending Alex Rodriguez after he opted out; A-Rod still has six years at $143 million left as his body and skills seem to be declining.
Monday, October 17, 2011
NBC NY: Previewing the Yankee Offseason: The Young Arms
This isn’t a plea to just plug the two kids into the rotation and let them pitch until their arms fall off. It is merely a suggestion that the Yankees not talk about giving them a chance to compete while simultaneously rigging things so that they have no chance to actually contribute.
And don’t just stop with the two Killer B’s. Let Adam Warren, Hector Noesi and David Phelps get a real shot at the rotation as well.
Between those five pitchers, the Yankees should be able to fill the fifth spot in their rotation while finding out which of these pitchers have the stuff to be longtime members of the rotation.
I don’t know that any of the pitchers on the farm are ready, but I do think the Yankee should be willing to take the risk that some of them are. That probably means not filling the rotation via signings or trades and starting the season with some uncertainty.
If you start to think about the amount of money the Yankees have committed to players that are not worth their salaries, it’s kind of scary. Add that to the fact that they’ll probably need to consider contract extensions for Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson, and about what to do in 2013 for RF and beyond. It’d be nice if they were getting value from somewhere without ridiculously overpaying for it, and the pitching staff seems like the best bet for that.
Sunday, October 16, 2011
Two More Data Points to Consider Re: Yu Darvish
I promise this will be the last Yu Darvish related post for the next day or two.
Kyle wondered about Colby Lewis and any other American starters that went to Japan and then returned to MLB. The only other one I could think of was Darrell May. So here are some of their stats.
| Lewis | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | WP | BK | RA | ERA | FIP |
| 2008-2009 | 55 | 354 | 307 | 124 | 111 | 25 | 46 | 369 | 4 | 3 | 3.15 | 2.82 | 2.42 |
| 2010-2011 | 64 | 401 | 361 | 193 | 181 | 56 | 121 | 365 | 13 | 0 | 4.33 | 4.06 | 4.10 |
| May | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | WP | BK | RA | ERA | FIP |
| 1999-2001 | 69 | 430 | 386 | 182 | 177 | 60 | 124 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 3.81 | 3.70 | 3.79 |
| 2002-2005 | 120 | 593 | 662 | 362 | 332 | 111 | 181 | 365 | 9 | 0 | 5.49 | 5.04 | 5.32 |
Lewis pitched for two seasons in Japan for Hiroshima in 2008 and 2009. He’s had two full seasons back in MLB since then.
For May I’m only showing his last three seasons in Japan and then what he did over the rest of his major league career.
Here are the ratios for the component stats pro-rated to the same innings.
| Ratios | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO |
| Lewis | 1.04 | 1.37 | 1.44 | 1.98 | 2.32 | 0.87 |
| May | 1.24 | 1.44 | 1.36 | 1.34 | 1.06 | 0.59 |
Lewis hasn’t suffered much in the hit department, but you can see his FIP peripherals took a pretty big hit. His HR rate has been almost double, his walk rate has been more than double. He maintained a bit more of his K rate than the starters I looked at in the last post. Despite all that he’s still been a solidly above average starter for Texas, in a park that boosts offense. In May’s case we see a bigger spike in hits and a precipitous drop in Ks.
Let’s look at ratios for all the starters that I’ve covered over the last two posts.
| Player | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO |
| Igawa, Kei | 1.29 | 1.74 | 1.98 | 1.95 | 1.88 | 0.79 |
| Irabu, Hideki | 1.43 | 1.67 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.89 | 0.70 |
| Ishii, Kazuhisa | 1.15 | 1.39 | 1.35 | 1.27 | 1.47 | 0.72 |
| Kawakami, Kenshin | 1.14 | 1.52 | 1.54 | 1.02 | 2.06 | 0.74 |
| Kuroda, Hiroki | 1.03 | 1.22 | 1.18 | 1.02 | 1.26 | 1.03 |
| Matsuzaka, Daisuke | 1.17 | 1.70 | 1.85 | 1.62 | 2.27 | 0.88 |
| Nomo, Hideo | 1.12 | 1.17 | 1.23 | 2.01 | 0.72 | 0.88 |
| Yoshii, Masato | 1.24 | 1.45 | 1.49 | 2.12 | 1.09 | 0.88 |
| Lewis, Colby | 1.04 | 1.37 | 1.44 | 1.98 | 2.32 | 0.87 |
| Darrell May | 1.24 | 1.44 | 1.36 | 1.34 | 1.06 | 0.59 |
| Worst | 1.43 | 1.74 | 2.00 | 2.12 | 2.32 | 0.59 |
The last row just shows the worst case for each component stat. So Hideki Irabu (RIP) saw the biggest increase in hits allowed, etc.,
Let’s run Darvish’s three-year weighted average against each pitcher as well as with each of the ‘worst’ components.
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Darvish, Yu | 214 | 150 | 43 | 38 | 6 | 41 | 240 | 1.81 | 1.59 | 1.88 |
| Darvish->Average | 214 | 178 | 62 | 57 | 9 | 51 | 197 | 2.62 | 2.42 | 2.62 |
| Darvish->Igawa, Kei | 214 | 194 | 75 | 75 | 11 | 78 | 189 | 3.15 | 3.14 | 3.19 |
| Darvish->Irabu, Hideki | 214 | 214 | 72 | 75 | 11 | 37 | 168 | 3.03 | 3.18 | 2.83 |
| Darvish->Ishii, Kazuhisa | 214 | 173 | 60 | 51 | 7 | 61 | 172 | 2.52 | 2.14 | 2.88 |
| Darvish->Kawakami, Kenshin | 214 | 172 | 65 | 58 | 6 | 85 | 177 | 2.75 | 2.44 | 3.08 |
| Darvish->Kuroda, Hiroki | 214 | 155 | 52 | 45 | 6 | 52 | 247 | 2.21 | 1.88 | 1.97 |
| Darvish->Matsuzaka, Daisuke | 214 | 176 | 73 | 70 | 9 | 93 | 211 | 3.08 | 2.94 | 3.10 |
| Darvish->Nomo, Hideo | 214 | 169 | 50 | 46 | 11 | 29 | 210 | 2.11 | 1.95 | 2.34 |
| Darvish->Yoshii, Masato | 214 | 187 | 62 | 56 | 12 | 45 | 211 | 2.62 | 2.37 | 2.59 |
| Darvish->Lewis, Colby | 214 | 156 | 59 | 54 | 11 | 96 | 209 | 2.49 | 2.28 | 3.26 |
| Darvish->Darrell May | 214 | 187 | 62 | 51 | 8 | 44 | 141 | 2.61 | 2.16 | 2.95 |
| Darvish->Worst | 214 | 254 | 108 | 115 | 19 | 119 | 116 | 4.56 | 4.84 | 4.93 |
It’s entirely possible that Darvish will be exposed against the best competition in the world. Perhaps he’s uniquely positioned to take advantage of things in the Japanese game that he won’t be able to in MLB. He’s a risk, particularly given the likely investment in him.
However, I’d temper that by saying that as far as I can tell, no pitcher coming to MLB from Japan has put up the lines that Darvish has put up. The only pitcher who had a three-year-weighted average FIP within 0.22 of Darvish’s 1.88 was Irabu at 2.20. The next closest was Matsuzaka at 2.59. This just confirms to me that we shouldn’t just assume he’ll struggle because most of the pitchers who came over did. He’s been better than any of them.
Since this is the last Darvish post for the next day or two, I’m going to add this video.
Saturday, October 15, 2011
All Darvish, All the Time
Upon further reflection, I’ve decided to delve a bit deeper into the Yu Darvish situation. In my first post about him, I used a matched set of innings for all pitchers that came to MLB from Japan as a way to try and estimate how Darvish’s performance may translate. The problem is that when I looked a bit deeper into it, I found that most of the pitchers who came over were relievers and they generally had better success. Since we know that relieving tends to be easier than starting, using those pitchers in the sample may not be all that telling. I also wondered if using career statistics was of much use since player talent is not static.
So I decided to do the same basic idea from that same post, but restricted to the pitchers who were mainly starters in both Japan and MLB. I’m also restricting the Japanese stats to the 3 years prior to coming to MLB, using a basic 3-2-1 weighing (most recent year weighted at 3).
It’s a much shorter list.
Igawa, Kei
Irabu, Hideki
Ishii, Kazuhisa
Kawakami, Kenshin
Kuroda, Hiroki
Matsuzaka, Daisuke
Nomo, Hideo
Yoshii, Masato
Because it’s a much shorter list, we of course have to be concerned about the dreaded small sample size thing. But I think the readers here generally understand that, so we’ll press on.
Here are the stats of those pitchers over the three years prior to entering MLB plus their entire MLB record.
| Player | Year | Team | Lg | Level | Age | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Igawa, Kei | 2004 | Hanshin | Jap Cen | Intl | 24 | 200 | 190 | 95 | 83 | 29 | 54 | 228 | 4.27 | 3.73 | 3.61 |
| Igawa, Kei | 2005 | Hanshin | Jap Cen | Intl | 25 | 172 | 199 | 91 | 74 | 23 | 60 | 145 | 4.75 | 3.86 | 4.30 |
| Igawa, Kei | 2006 | Hanshin | Jap Cen | Intl | 26 | 209 | 180 | 77 | 69 | 17 | 49 | 194 | 3.32 | 2.97 | 3.10 |
| Igawa, Kei | 2004-2006 | Hanshin | Jap Cen | Intl | 24-26 | 195 | 188 | 85 | 73 | 21 | 54 | 183 | 3.90 | 3.36 | 3.54 |
| MLB | 72 | 89 | 54 | 53 | 15 | 37 | 53 | 6.78 | 6.66 | 5.99 | |||||
| Irabu, Hideki | 1994 | Chiba Lotte | Jap Pac | Intl | 25 | 207 | 170 | 77 | 70 | 0 | 94 | 239 | 3.34 | 3.04 | 2.25 |
| Irabu, Hideki | 1995 | Chiba Lotte | Jap Pac | Intl | 26 | 203 | 158 | 70 | 57 | 0 | 72 | 239 | 3.10 | 2.53 | 1.91 |
| Irabu, Hideki | 1996 | Chiba Lotte | Jap Pac | Intl | 27 | 157 | 108 | 57 | 42 | 0 | 59 | 167 | 3.26 | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| Irabu, Hideki | 1994-1996 | Chiba Lotte | Jap Pac | Intl | 25-27 | 181 | 135 | 65 | 52 | 0 | 69 | 203 | 3.22 | 2.57 | 2.10 |
| MLB | 514 | 547 | 307 | 294 | 91 | 175 | 405 | 5.38 | 5.15 | 4.95 | |||||
| Ishii, Kazuhisa | 1999 | Yakult | Jap Cen | Intl | 25 | 133 | 123 | 75 | 71 | 16 | 71 | 162 | 5.08 | 4.80 | 3.93 |
| Ishii, Kazuhisa | 2000 | Yakult | Jap Cen | Intl | 26 | 183 | 137 | 54 | 53 | 15 | 73 | 210 | 2.66 | 2.61 | 3.17 |
| Ishii, Kazuhisa | 2001 | Yakult | Jap Cen | Intl | 27 | 175 | 135 | 74 | 66 | 18 | 73 | 173 | 3.81 | 3.39 | 3.81 |
| Ishii, Kazuhisa | 1999-2001 | Yakult | Jap Cen | Intl | 25-27 | 171 | 134 | 68 | 63 | 17 | 73 | 184 | 3.56 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| MLB | 564 | 508 | 310 | 278 | 70 | 354 | 435 | 4.95 | 4.44 | 5.15 | |||||
| Kawakami, Kenshin | 2006 | Chunichi | Jap Cen | Intl | 31 | 215 | 166 | 74 | 60 | 22 | 39 | 194 | 3.10 | 2.51 | 3.27 |
| Kawakami, Kenshin | 2007 | Chunichi | Jap Cen | Intl | 32 | 167 | 175 | 72 | 66 | 18 | 23 | 145 | 3.87 | 3.55 | 3.28 |
| Kawakami, Kenshin | 2008 | Chunichi | Jap Cen | Intl | 33 | 117 | 99 | 33 | 30 | 11 | 25 | 112 | 2.53 | 2.30 | 3.15 |
| Kawakami, Kenshin | 2006-2008 | Chunichi | Jap Cen | Intl | 31-33 | 150 | 136 | 53 | 47 | 15 | 27 | 137 | 3.16 | 2.81 | 3.23 |
| MLB | 244 | 251 | 130 | 117 | 25 | 89 | 164 | 4.80 | 4.32 | 4.28 | |||||
| Kuroda, Hiroki | 2005 | Hiroshima | Jap Cen | Intl | 30 | 213 | 183 | 76 | 75 | 17 | 42 | 165 | 3.22 | 3.17 | 3.28 |
| Kuroda, Hiroki | 2006 | Hiroshima | Jap Cen | Intl | 31 | 189 | 169 | 49 | 39 | 12 | 21 | 144 | 2.33 | 1.85 | 2.84 |
| Kuroda, Hiroki | 2007 | Hiroshima | Jap Cen | Intl | 32 | 180 | 176 | 78 | 71 | 20 | 42 | 123 | 3.91 | 3.56 | 3.98 |
| Kuroda, Hiroki | 2005-2007 | Hiroshima | Jap Cen | Intl | 30-32 | 188 | 175 | 68 | 61 | 17 | 35 | 137 | 3.25 | 2.91 | 3.46 |
| MLB | 699 | 667 | 308 | 268 | 64 | 163 | 523 | 3.97 | 3.45 | 3.59 | |||||
| Matsuzaka, Daisuke | 2004 | Seibu | Jap Pac | Intl | 23 | 146 | 127 | 50 | 47 | 7 | 42 | 127 | 3.08 | 2.90 | 2.95 |
| Matsuzaka, Daisuke | 2005 | Seibu | Jap Pac | Intl | 24 | 215 | 172 | 63 | 55 | 13 | 49 | 226 | 2.64 | 2.30 | 2.57 |
| Matsuzaka, Daisuke | 2006 | Seibu | Jap Pac | Intl | 25 | 186 | 138 | 50 | 44 | 13 | 34 | 200 | 2.42 | 2.13 | 2.51 |
| Matsuzaka, Daisuke | 2004-2006 | Seibu | Jap Pac | Intl | 23-25 | 189 | 148 | 54 | 48 | 12 | 40 | 197 | 2.59 | 2.29 | 2.59 |
| MLB | 623 | 569 | 304 | 294 | 64 | 301 | 568 | 4.39 | 4.25 | 4.16 | |||||
| Nomo, Hideo | 1992 | Kinetsu | Jap Pac | Intl | 23 | 217 | 150 | 72 | 64 | 0 | 117 | 228 | 2.99 | 2.66 | 2.72 |
| Nomo, Hideo | 1993 | Kinetsu | Jap Pac | Intl | 24 | 243 | 201 | 111 | 100 | 0 | 148 | 276 | 4.11 | 3.70 | 2.76 |
| Nomo, Hideo | 1994 | Kinetsu | Jap Pac | Intl | 25 | 114 | 94 | 52 | 46 | 0 | 86 | 126 | 4.11 | 3.63 | 3.25 |
| Nomo, Hideo | 1992-1994 | Kinetsu | Jap Pac | Intl | 23-25 | 174 | 139 | 75 | 67 | 0 | 112 | 193 | 3.87 | 3.46 | 2.91 |
| MLB | 1976 | 1768 | 993 | 932 | 251 | 908 | 1918 | 4.52 | 4.24 | 4.29 | |||||
| Yoshii, Masato | 1995 | Yakult | Jap Cen | Intl | 30 | 147 | 126 | 59 | 51 | 0 | 39 | 91 | 3.60 | 3.12 | 2.76 |
| Yoshii, Masato | 1996 | Yakult | Jap Cen | Intl | 31 | 180 | 154 | 71 | 65 | 0 | 47 | 145 | 3.54 | 3.24 | 2.37 |
| Yoshii, Masato | 1997 | Yakult | Jap Cen | Intl | 32 | 174 | 149 | 61 | 58 | 0 | 48 | 104 | 3.15 | 2.99 | 2.83 |
| Yoshii, Masato | 1995-1997 | Yakult | Jap Cen | Intl | 30-32 | 172 | 147 | 64 | 59 | 0 | 46 | 116 | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.66 |
| Yoshii, Masato_MLB | MLB | 757 | 805 | 408 | 389 | 112 | 222 | 447 | 4.85 | 4.62 | 4.82 |
Same list, just looking at three-year weighed average and MLB career. I’ve pro-rated each pitcher’s innings to the smaller of the two.
| Player | Level | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Igawa, Kei | Intl | 72 | 69 | 31 | 27 | 8 | 20 | 67 | 3.90 | 3.36 | 3.54 |
| MLB | 72 | 89 | 54 | 53 | 15 | 37 | 53 | 6.78 | 6.66 | 5.99 | |
| Irabu, Hideki | Intl | 181 | 135 | 65 | 52 | 16 | 69 | 203 | 3.22 | 2.57 | 3.25 |
| MLB | 181 | 193 | 108 | 103 | 32 | 62 | 143 | 5.38 | 5.15 | 4.95 | |
| Ishii, Kazuhisa | Intl | 171 | 134 | 68 | 63 | 17 | 73 | 184 | 3.56 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| MLB | 171 | 154 | 94 | 84 | 21 | 107 | 132 | 4.95 | 4.44 | 5.15 | |
| Kawakami, Kenshin | Intl | 150 | 136 | 53 | 47 | 15 | 27 | 137 | 3.16 | 2.81 | 3.23 |
| MLB | 150 | 155 | 80 | 72 | 15 | 55 | 101 | 4.80 | 4.32 | 4.28 | |
| Kuroda, Hiroki | Intl | 188 | 175 | 68 | 61 | 17 | 35 | 137 | 3.25 | 2.91 | 3.46 |
| MLB | 188 | 180 | 83 | 72 | 17 | 44 | 141 | 3.97 | 3.45 | 3.59 | |
| Matsuzaka, Daisuke | Intl | 189 | 148 | 54 | 48 | 12 | 40 | 197 | 2.59 | 2.29 | 2.59 |
| MLB | 189 | 173 | 92 | 89 | 19 | 91 | 173 | 4.39 | 4.25 | 4.16 | |
| Nomo, Hideo | Intl | 174 | 139 | 75 | 67 | 11 | 112 | 193 | 3.87 | 3.46 | 3.73 |
| MLB | 174 | 156 | 88 | 82 | 22 | 80 | 169 | 4.52 | 4.24 | 4.29 | |
| Yoshii, Masato | Intl | 172 | 147 | 64 | 59 | 12 | 46 | 116 | 3.35 | 3.10 | 3.57 |
| MLB | 172 | 183 | 93 | 88 | 25 | 50 | 101 | 4.85 | 4.62 | 4.82 | |
| Average | Intl | 162 | 135 | 60 | 53 | 13 | 53 | 154 | 3.31 | 2.94 | 3.35 |
| MLB | 162 | 160 | 86 | 81 | 21 | 66 | 127 | 4.80 | 4.47 | 4.54 | |
| %Change | Intl->MLB | 1.18 | 1.45 | 1.52 | 1.56 | 1.25 | 0.82 | 1.45 | 1.52 | 1.35 |
The data for Irabu, Nomo and Yoshii was missing HRs allowed, so I used the average of difference between MLB HRs and Japan HRs allowed by the others to fudge it. That probably introduces more error in here, so keep it in mind.
This is not nearly as optimistic as the set of data that includes relievers, which I guess feels right to me.
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Darvish, Yu | 214 | 150 | 43 | 38 | 6 | 41 | 240 | 1.81 | 1.59 | 1.88 |
| Darvish->Average | 214 | 178 | 62 | 57 | 9 | 51 | 197 | 2.62 | 2.42 | 2.62 |
| Darvish->Igawa, Kei | 214 | 194 | 75 | 75 | 11 | 78 | 189 | 3.15 | 3.14 | 3.19 |
| Darvish->Irabu, Hideki | 214 | 214 | 72 | 75 | 11 | 37 | 168 | 3.03 | 3.18 | 2.83 |
| Darvish->Ishii, Kazuhisa | 214 | 173 | 60 | 51 | 7 | 61 | 172 | 2.52 | 2.14 | 2.88 |
| Darvish->Kawakami, Kenshin | 214 | 172 | 65 | 58 | 6 | 85 | 177 | 2.75 | 2.44 | 3.08 |
| Darvish->Kuroda, Hiroki | 214 | 155 | 52 | 45 | 6 | 52 | 247 | 2.21 | 1.88 | 1.97 |
| Darvish->Matsuzaka, Daisuke | 214 | 176 | 73 | 70 | 9 | 93 | 211 | 3.08 | 2.94 | 3.10 |
| Darvish->Nomo, Hideo | 214 | 169 | 50 | 46 | 11 | 29 | 210 | 2.11 | 1.95 | 2.34 |
| Darvish->Yoshii, Masato | 214 | 187 | 62 | 56 | 12 | 45 | 211 | 2.62 | 2.37 | 2.59 |
The first line here is Darvish’s 2009-2011 three-year weighed average. Each subsequent line is what his stats would like if he saw the same % difference in his component stats that the average starter did, as well as how it would look if he ended up following the path of each individual starter.
Think about this. If Darvish’s struggles to the same relative extent that Kei Igawa has, he’d have an ERA of 3.15.
I think Darvish very well might be one of the best pitchers on the planet right now. He’s probably not, but the Yankees should really go all out for him. Just in case he is.
Friday, October 14, 2011
NY Post: Yankees’ target Wilson comes up small for Rangers
Postseason lessons have been painful for Wilson.
He is 1-4 over seven career postseason starts. He is 0-2 in three starts this year. In 15 2/3 innings he has surrendered 21 hits, 17 runs, 16 earned and six home runs. This marked the second straight October he has lost Game 5 of the ALCS. He was beaten 7-2 by the Yankees and CC Sabathia in Game 5 last season in the Bronx.
Usually, the press waits until a player has become a Yankee to label him as unclutch. Looks like Wilson’s got a running start if the Yankees want to pursue him.
I think Wilson’s worth pursuing to a certain point, but I wouldn’t overpay for him. I recently found Yu Darvish’s 2011 stats which weren’t included when I ran my numbers in the last post. So here are his career numbers.
| Year | Team | Lg | Level | Age | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP |
| 2005 | Nippon | Jap Pac | Intl | 18 | 94.1 | 97 | 37 | 37 | 7 | 48 | 52 | 3.54 | 3.54 | 4.59 |
| 2006 | Nippon | Jap Pac | Intl | 19 | 149.2 | 128 | 55 | 48 | 12 | 64 | 115 | 3.32 | 2.90 | 3.99 |
| 2007 | Nippon | Jap Pac | Intl | 20 | 207.2 | 123 | 48 | 42 | 9 | 49 | 210 | 2.08 | 1.82 | 2.45 |
| 2008 | Nippon | Jap Pac | Intl | 21 | 200.2 | 136 | 44 | 42 | 11 | 44 | 208 | 1.98 | 1.89 | 2.50 |
| 2009 | Nippon | Jap Pac | Intl | 22 | 182 | 118 | 36 | 35 | 9 | 45 | 167 | 1.78 | 1.73 | 2.75 |
| 2010 | Nippon | Jap Pac | Intl | 23 | 202 | 158 | 48 | 40 | 5 | 47 | 222 | 2.14 | 1.78 | 2.02 |
| 2011 | Nippon | Jap Pac | Intl | 24 | 232 | 156 | 42 | 37 | 5 | 36 | 276 | 1.63 | 1.44 | 1.57 |
Forget about MLEs and translations or whatever. If Darvish had put up that 2011 season in AAA he’d rightfully be considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. Hell, even in AA probably. Is it unrealistic to think that the level of competition he’s faced is at least of AA quality?
I think he should be the Yankees’ primary target. Is he a risk? Yeah. Can the Yankees afford to take it? Yeah again.
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Should the Yankees Make a Play for Yu Darvish?
The reason for the last Pitcher A vs. Pitcher B thread was to segue into the question in the title. Whether it’s fair or not, Darvish is going to be compared to other Japanese pitchers that came to the majors. While it’s not certain he’ll be posted, it’s probably worth exploring in case he is.
Statistics only tell us so much about how good a pitcher is, particularly when trying to assess him in a new league against more difficult competion. So although I’m going to try and crunch some numbers here to take an educated guess at what Darvish might do in the majors, it’s going to be important that the scouting reports on Darvish feel he’s a viable candidate to provide value as a starting pitcher in MLB.
The track record of Japanese pitchers in MLB is mixed. Going through the list of Japanese league pitchers who’ve come over to pitch in MLB gives me the following names.
Fukumori, Kazuo
Hasegawa, Shigetoshi
Igarashi, Ryota
Igawa, Kei
Irabu, Hideki
Ishii, Kazuhisa
Kashiwada, Takashi
Kawakami, Kenshin
Kida, Masao
Kobayashi, Masahide
Komiyama, Satoru
Kuroda, Hiroki
Kuwata, Masumi
Matsuzaka, Daisuke
Nakamura, Micheal
Nomo, Hideo
Nomura, Takahito
Ohka, Tomokazu
Okajima, Hideki
Otsuka, Akinori
Saito, Takashi
Sasaki, Kazuhiro
Suzuki, Mac
Tadano, Kazuhito
Takahashi, Hisanori
Takahashi, Ken
Takatsu, Shingo
Tateyama, Yoshinori
Uehara, Koji
Yabu, Keiichi
Yabuta, Yasuhiko
Yoshii, Masato
There are differences in Japanese leagues and parks which I haven’t bothered to try and account for. You also have starters and relievers and a wide array of ages in this group, which is also something I’m not worrying about right now. You also have generally older pitchers coming over in terms of the typical player peak, and I ignoring that as well.
I figured the most basic question to ask is how did these pitchers’ performance in MLB compare to their performance in Japan. So I used matching innings for each pitcher’s Japan time and MLB time to see if I could figure it out.
The idea behind matching innings is to ensure we have the same weighing of Japan and MLB data. Basically, I compared the pitchers’ career MLB innings to their career Japanese innings and used the smaller of the two as the matched innings. So in the case of Kazuo Fukumori, I pro-rated his performance over 677.3 Japanese innings to his 4 MLB innings. I did that for everyone, and then added up the cumulative Japan and MLB performances. So every pitcher contributed in the same percentage to both data sets.
| League | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO |
| Japan | 8682 | 6400 | 2719 | 3327 | 485 | 3398 | 7858 |
| MLB | 8682 | 8232 | 4281 | 4004 | 1067 | 3438 | 7192 |
| Japan->MLB | 1.29 | 1.57 | 1.20 | 2.20 | 1.01 | 0.92 |
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
This is a look at how the pitchers’ cumulative matched inning performances compared between Japan and MLB. The Japan->MLB line is just the ratio of MLB divided by Japan for each stat. So on average, we saw an increase in hit rate of about 29%, an increase in runs and earned runs, a more than doubling of HR rate, a fairly consistent walk rate, and about an 8% decrease in strikeout rate. One thing I’ll mention on the R/ER thing is that the gap between runs and earned runs doesn’t look right to me. I don’t know why the data (which I pulled from The Baseball Cube) shows such a discrepancy. It could be that official scoring in Japan is more liberal with assigning errors, or there may be a data error in the earned runs column. Because of that, I’d probably focus on RA/FIP instead of ERA.
Then, I just took a 3-2-1 weighted average of Darvish’s 2008-2010 performance and applied those changes in the various component stats.
| Player | Type | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | WP | BK | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Darvish, Yu | Japan | 195 | 141 | 43 | 39 | 7 | 46 | 201 | 5 | 0 | 2.00 | 1.78 | 2.33 |
| Darvish, Yu | Translated | 195 | 181 | 68 | 47 | 16 | 46 | 184 | 22 | 1 | 3.15 | 2.15 | 3.10 |
That’s a #1 starter’s line, but it’s also probably optimistic. So I figured it’d be interesting to do the same exercise for Daisuke Matsuzaka for the three years prior to his arrival in MLB.
| Player | Type | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | WP | BK | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Matsuzaka, Daisuke | Japan | 189 | 148 | 54 | 48 | 12 | 40 | 197 | 6 | 0 | 2.59 | 2.29 | 2.59 |
| Matsuzaka, Daisuke | Translated | 189 | 190 | 86 | 58 | 26 | 41 | 180 | 23 | 0 | 4.07 | 2.76 | 3.76 |
| Matsuzaka, Daisuke | Actual MLB | 189 | 173 | 92 | 89 | 19 | 91 | 172 | 7 | 0 | 4.39 | 4.25 | 4.16 |
I’ve added a third line here, which is just Matsuzaka’s career MLB performance pro-rated to the 189 innings of his 3-2-1 weighted pre-MLB line. As you can see, Matsuzaka was obviously not as good as the straight translation would have pegged him. He’s been somewhere between 0.3 - 0.4 runs per nine worse according to RA/FIP.
So what if I just used the difference between Matsuzaka’s translated line and actual line applied to Darvish’s translated line?
| Player | Type | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | WP | BK | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Darvish, Yu | Translated* | 195 | 165 | 74 | 72 | 12 | 104 | 177 | 6 | 0 | 3.40 | 3.31 | 3.78 |
That still looks pretty solid to me. It’d almost certainly be the best projection on the Yankees aside from CC Sabathia if he doesn’t leave.
As far as I know, Darvish has solid MLB stuff. He’d also be two years younger than Matsuzaka was when he came over. The concern I’d have would be if his style of pitching is conducive to MLB success. The big jump in Matsuzaka’s walk rate is an illustration of why that’s a potential problem. If Darvish’s style is based more on getting batters to swing at bad pitches and less on having good command, he may suffer more in MLB than the raw numbers indicate. That’s where the scouts come in.
But at least from what this tells me, I’m all aboard the sign Yu Darvish bandwagon. Since the posting fee won’t count against the luxury tax, and there’s no draft pick compensation to lose if he’s signed, it’s a gamble worth taking in my opinion.
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Pitcher A vs. Pitcher B
| Pitcher | Ages | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | BB/BF | K/BF |
| A | 18-23 | 139 | 1035 | 760 | 268 | 244 | 53 | 297 | 974 | 2.33 | 2.12 | 2.84 | 7.3% | 24.0% |
| B | 18-25 | 171 | 1161 | 918 | 404 | 363 | 85 | 385 | 1141 | 3.13 | 2.81 | 3.18 | 8.2% | 24.4% |
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
Saturday, October 8, 2011
TGS NY: Screaming Steven Smith: It’s gut-check time for CC, Yankees
Is Sabathia an ace when he’s had an ERA over six in an American League Divisional Series loss to Detroit? Is he an ace when you put him against Justin Verlander’s 24-5 record? Is he an ace comparable with Cliff Lee, worthy of $120 million?
Is that the Justin Verlander that had an ERA of 5.00 in Detroit’s ALDS win and a career postseason ERA of 5.58? And is that the Cliff Lee that had an ERA of 7.50 in Philadelphia’s NLDS loss to St. Louis? Or is it the Cliff Lee that’s 0-3 in his last three postseason starts with an ERA of 7.13 who’s held opposing batters to a line of .338/.370/.532?
Anyway, getting to the postseason is more important than winning once you get there. So far in his time as a Yankee, Sabathia has probably been worth more than he’s been paid because he’s been one the key factors in them getting to the postseason at all. We also have Sabathia’s dominant performance in the 2009 postseason as evidence that he doesn’t have some sort of deficiency that precludes him from being an effective pitcher in the postseason.
So then the question is how much is he likely to be worth going forward.
| Years | WAR | Value | Cost |
| 2009-2011 | 16.2 | $81,000,000 | $69,000,000 |
| 2012-2015 | 20.3 | $101,666,667 | $92,000,000 |
| Total | 36.5 | $182,666,667 | $161,000,000 |
WAR: Baseball Reference Wins above Replacement.
Value: Value of WAR assuming $5M per win
Cost: Total Salary paid ($23M per year)
The WAR for 2009-2011 is the actual WAR accrued. The WAR/Value/Cost for 2012-2015 assumes a 0.5 WAR decline per season from 2013 (2012 is a 3-2-1 weighing of his 2009-2011 WAR) and his current contract, which pays him $23M per year for the next four years.
If the average salary is fair, then the question becomes adding years to the contract. So let’s look at in terms of each additional year.
| Years | WAR | Value | Cost |
| 2012-2016 | 24.2 | $120,833,333 | $115,000,000 |
| 2012-2017 | 27.5 | $137,500,000 | $138,000,000 |
| 2012-2018 | 30.3 | $151,666,667 | $161,000,000 |
| 2012-2019 | 32.7 | $163,333,333 | $184,000,000 |
| 2012-2020 | 34.5 | $172,500,000 | $207,000,000 |
Adding two years at the same salary seems fair. Adding the third year essentially wipes out the surplus from 2009-2011. After that, it gets dicey.
A 0.5 WAR decline may be overly optimistic, as most players in their 30s lose something closer to 0.7 WAR per year. That factors in injury/attrition/actual decline. If we use that instead of 0.5 it looks like this.
| Years | WAR | Value | Cost |
| 2009-2011 | 16.2 | $81,000,000 | $69,000,000 |
| 2012-2015 | 19.1 | $95,666,667 | $92,000,000 |
| Total | 35.3 | $176,666,667 | $161,000,000 |
| Years | WAR | Value | Cost |
| 2012-2016 | 22.2 | $110,833,333 | $115,000,000 |
| 2012-2017 | 24.5 | $122,500,000 | $138,000,000 |
| 2012-2018 | 26.1 | $130,666,667 | $161,000,000 |
| 2012-2019 | 27.1 | $135,333,333 | $184,000,000 |
| 2012-2020 | 27.3 | $136,500,000 | $207,000,000 |
At that rate of decline, it’s a bit more risky to add years.
Two other things to consider are that I haven’t accounted for the fact that a marginal win is probably worth more for the Yankees, and that the value of a marginal win in general may increase if we ever get out of this recession.
Yet another thing to consider is that there probably is not any pitcher available in free agency that you’d rather have in 2012 than Sabathia. C.J. Wilson is probably the best 2012 free agent starter, and I doubt he’ll be better than Sabathia next year. Yu Darvish is an interesting pitcher to consider, but you wonder if the Yankees might be gun shy about him after their Kei Igawa experience and seeing the supposed best pitcher in Japan (Daisuke Matsuzaka) fail to live up to his billing.
In 2013 there are some other possible pitchers like John Danks, Cole Hamels, Dan Haren (has a team option), Francisco Liriano, Jake Peavy (team option), Anibal Sanchez, Ervin Santana(team option) and James Shields (team option). I’m not sure I’d rather have any of them than Sabathia in 2013 either. So now you have to look at trade possibilities and/or hoping that some of the young pitching in the organization develops to the point that they can be penciled into the front of the rotation.
I guess one way to think about it is this. If you could have any pitcher in baseball over the next five seasons, who would be your first pick? Who’d be your second pick? Who’d be your third pick, etc., List them out, see which ones are ahead of Sabathia, and then think about their availability. I think we’d find a pretty short list, and that once you consider availability and/or cost of acquisition you’d end up with a list with CC near the top.
Brian Cashman’s already gone on the record that the Yankees don’t expect to make many changes with the position players. The Yankees can probably get a better performance out of DH next season, but other than that they’ll be hoping that Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano don’t fall off much and that they get better performances out of a bunch of 30+ year old players. That’s not really something you want to hang your hat on. So they probably have to strengthen their pitching, and letting CC go makes that much harder.
So I think the Yankees will either extend CC before he opts out, or re-sign him once he does. And logically, they should.
Thursday, October 6, 2011
NYDN: Every Yankees pitcher, from CC Sabathia to Mariano Rivera, ready for Game 5
With young Ivan Nova getting the ball, it is Girardi’s hope that he will be able to follow his usual winning formula of Rafael Soriano in the seventh and David Robertson in the eighth with Mariano Rivera closing things out in the ninth and advancing to Saturday’s ALCS Game 1 against the Rangers.
Girardi also said that, if needed, Rivera would pitch more than one inning.
“He’s the one-plus guy (Thursday night), yes,” Girardi said.
Hopefully Luis Ayala is not available.
Friday, September 23, 2011
The Rise and Fall of Bartolo Colon’s Fastball
FFv: Average velocity of four seam fastball on specific date
FTv: Average velocity of two-seam fastball on specific date
Monday, August 29, 2011
NY Post: Yankees plan to cut to five-man rotation
Speaking before yesterday’s 2-0 loss in the opener of a day-night doubleheader at Camden Yards, Girardi said he will attempt to shave his suspect rotation from six to five arms following Thursday night’s game against the Red Sox in Boston.
“I’m not going to base it on one outing,” Girardi said of judging Bartolo Colon (yesterday’s starter), Freddy Garcia (tonight’s starter) or Burnett (who starts Thursday). “I don’t think it’s fair. The bottom line is that we need to pitch well. If we’re going to win the [AL East], we need to pitch better.”
Don’t worry Joe, I’m pretty sure the decision will be made for you on Thursday.
What I find interesting is the possibility that the people on the bubble are/were Colon, Garcia and Burnett. I don’t know if the author is inferring this or if I’m reading too much into this, but it does seem to indicate faith in Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova.
If I had to pick a four man rotation entering the postseason today, I’d probably go CC/Colon/Nova/one of Hughes or Garcia. Actually, I’d let CC opt out and then go Colon/Nova/Garcia/Hughes.
We’ll see how that looks a month from now if by some miracle the Yankees win the wild card.
Saturday, August 27, 2011
A.J. Not Staying Low
A few days ago, we looked at A.J. Burnett's numbers broken down by zone. He does much better, as most pitchers do, when keeping it down in the zone. In fact, this season he has the best overall opposing batting average and slugging percentage on pitches low in the zone.
His pitch location from yesterday was mostly middle and up:
Of the 116 pitches that A.J. Burnett threw last night, just 15 were located in the lower part of the zone. Not surprisingly, three of his five strikeouts came on pitches down in the zone, and he gave up just one hit in seven plate appearances decided on a low pitch. And basically everything up was hammered:
If only Irene could have come a day earlier....
All heat maps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Breaking Burnett Down by Zone Location
So now A.J. Burnett may really lose his spot in the Yankees rotation. I wanted to see if there was anything he's done this season that may provide hope that he could bounce back. When I broke down the zone location to up, middle and down, I found something pretty interesting.
First, the bad:
Basically the middle of the strike zone includes any pitch that hits the middle seven inches of the zone (which is normalized depending on the height of the batter). So anything above the top of that seven inch mark (whether inside or outside the actual strike zone) is designated as 'up'. The same applies for pitches down in the zone which you will see further down in the post.
This season, A.J. ranks in the bottom 21% of the league in opposing batting average (.271) on pitches up (min. 500 pitches thrown in that zone). The league average is .240. His opponent slugging percentage of .474 ranks in the bottom 11% of the league and is nearly 100 points worse than the league average. Sadly, this is actually an improvement over last season when he ranked in the bottom 5 and 3 percent of the league in opponent average (.318) and slugging (.588) respectively.
When throwing over the middle of the zone, Burnett has not only been flat out terrible, he's basically been the worst pitcher in the league. He ranks second to last in opponent batting average (.379), and dead last in opponent slugging percentage (.707), opponent wOBA (.452), and HR/FB (23.3%).
Yet, here's how he's done on pitches down in the zone:
As bad as A.J. Burnett has been throwing middle and up, he's been that awesome on pitches down. Batters are hitting just .117 against him in 259 plate appearances decided on a low pitch (1162 total pitches), which is the best in baseball this season. Opponents are also slugging just .157 on low pitches, which also leads the league.
Most of this success on low pitches is probably due to his knuckle curve, which has been by far his best pitch this season (and has accounted for 50.9% of his low pitches). Opponents have a .188 wOBA versus his curve this season compared to a .407 wOBA against all of his other pitches. Burnett obviously can't rely on just one pitch, and we're seeing that quite clearly this season. The decline of his fastball is probably the biggest culprit here, as hitters are putting up a .439 wOBA against it, ranking him in the bottom 1% of the league (Only Edinson Volquez and Kyle Davies have been worse with their fastballs). That number has been increasing every year since PitchFX data began keeping track (2008: .364, 2009: .385, 2010: .403).
His stuff is simply getting worse. Maybe moving him to the bullpen will help him regain something, but is it best for a Yankees pen that has been exceptionally good this year?
All heat maps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform