Saturday, October 13, 2012
2012 ALCS Preview - Tigers vs. Yankees
It took the Yankees and Tigers the full five games for both teams to advance past the ALDS, but here they are. The problem for both teams is that they had to use their aces in the fifth game, which means they can’t start the ALCS with Justin Verlander or CC Sabathia.
The Tigers as presently constituted are better than the 88 win team in the AL Central that they were this year, at least if you believe the projections. Here’s how their offense projects over a seven game series using Oliver from the Hardball Times.
| Order | Player | Pos | PA | avg/obp/slg | woba | Outs | BR |
| 1 | Austin Jackson | CF | 31 | .279/.343/.421 | .335 | 20 | 3.9 |
| 2 | Omar Infante | 2B | 31 | .286/.315/.409 | .314 | 21 | 3.5 |
| 3 | Miguel Cabrera | 3B | 31 | .334/.415/.604 | .432 | 19 | 6.0 |
| 4 | Prince Fielder | 1B | 31 | .298/.405/.517 | .400 | 19 | 5.2 |
| 5 | Delmon Young | DH | 31 | .279/.311/.443 | .324 | 22 | 3.7 |
| 6 | Jhonny Peralta | SS | 31 | .263/.320/.413 | .320 | 22 | 3.6 |
| 7 | Andy Dirks | LF | 31 | .279/.323/.448 | .333 | 21 | 3.9 |
| 8 | Avisail Garcia | RF | 20 | .252/.279/.375 | .285 | 15 | 1.8 |
| 9 | Alex Avila | C | 25 | .260/.352/.410 | .338 | 16 | 3.1 |
| Bench | Gerald Laird | C | 7 | .244/.304/.360 | .295 | 5 | 0.7 |
| Bench | Ramon Santiago | IF | 4 | .254/.313/.351 | .295 | 3 | 0.4 |
| Bench | Danny Worth | IF | 1 | .239/.305/.357 | .294 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Bench | Don Kelly | UT | 0 | .242/.296/.376 | .295 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Bench | Quintin Berry | OF | 8 | .239/.312/.320 | .287 | 5 | 0.8 |
| Bench | Brennan Boesch | OF | 0 | .263/.317/.419 | .322 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Bench | Bryan Holaday | C | 0 | .223/.274/.331 | .267 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Total | 282 | 189 | 36.6 |
wOBA: Weighted on base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
The Tigers obviously have the two best hitters in this series in Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. The rest of the lineup is not quite as impressive. They’ve been platooning Alex Avila and Gerald Laird at catcher and Avisail Garcia and Quintin Berry in he OF, so I’ve assumed they’ll continue doing that. Defense was an issue for them for most of the year, but adding Omar Infante and getting Brennan Boesch out of the lineup seems to have helped them there quite a bit, and with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer striking out everyone it’s probably not going to be a big problem in three of the games at least.
If we give them 27 outs per game they project to score an estimated 36.6 runs over 7 games.
Here’s how their pitching looks.
| Player | Role | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | ERA |
| Doug Fister | SP1 | 13 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 3.46 |
| Anibal Sanchez | SP2 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 4.09 |
| Justin Verlander | SP3 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 2.89 |
| Max Scherzer | SP4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4.02 |
| Rick Porcello | SP5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.56 |
| Jose Valverde | CL | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3.70 |
| Joaquin Benoit | SU | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3.10 |
| Phil Coke | SU | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4.03 |
| Octavio Dotel | MR | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3.35 |
| Al Alburquerque | MR | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4.43 |
| Drew Smyly | MR | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4.30 |
| Darin Downs | MR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.55 |
| Luis Marte | LR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.31 |
| Brayan Villarreal | LR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.72 |
| Total | 63 | 58 | 27 | 25 | 6 | 18 | 57 | 3.58 |
The Tigers have Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer lined up to pitch the first four games. In theory that would mean Fister, Sanchez and Verlande would pitch games 5-7, but since those games won’t be played it doesn’t matter. The rotation is strong, with only Anibal Sanchez projecting worse than any of the starters the Orioles threw at the Yankees and he’s only .03 runs per nine worse than Jason Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen’s projections. If the Yankees had trouble with Baltimore’s starters, they’re really going to have trouble with Detroit’s.
They’ve had some issues with their closer, who projects worse than Joaquin Benoit and Octavio Dotel so it’ll be interesting to see if Jim Leyland sticks with him if he struggles in his first appearance or two. Our old friend Phil Coke is their main lefty out of the pen, although Drew Smyly provides depth there as well. You can futz around with how I assigned the bullpen innings but if you don’t they project to allow 27 runs in this series.
36.6 runs scored and 25 runs allowed equals a team that would win about 63.8% of their games, or 103.3 over a 162 game season.
How does that compare to the Yankees? Let’s see. First, the position players.
| Order | Player | Pos | PA | avg/obp/slg | woba | Outs | BR |
| 1 | Derek Jeter | SS | 31 | .299/.353/.405 | .337 | 21 | 3.8 |
| 2 | Ichiro Suzuki | LF | 31 | .289/.324/.385 | .313 | 21 | 3.5 |
| 3 | Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 25 | .271/.348/.462 | .352 | 17 | 3.5 |
| 4 | Robinson Cano | 2B | 31 | .304/.361/.530 | .381 | 20 | 4.9 |
| 5 | Mark Teixeira | 1B | 31 | .256/.346/.489 | .359 | 20 | 4.5 |
| 6 | Nick Swisher | RF | 30 | .267/.357/.463 | .357 | 20 | 4.2 |
| 7 | Curtis Granderson | CF | 30 | .249/.337/.509 | .360 | 20 | 4.5 |
| 8 | Raul Ibanez | DH | 29 | .256/.319/.454 | .334 | 20 | 3.7 |
| 9 | Russell Martin | C | 29 | .232/.323/.389 | .317 | 20 | 3.2 |
| Bench | Eric Chavez | 3B | 8 | .264/.321/.431 | .327 | 6 | 1.0 |
| Bench | Brett Gardner | OF | 0 | .266/.360/.391 | .337 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Bench | Eduardo Nunez | IF | 3 | .254/.294/.346 | .283 | 2 | 0.3 |
| Bench | Chris Stewart | C | 0 | .230/.289/.318 | .272 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Bench | Jayson Nix | IF | 3 | .216/.273/.356 | .276 | 2 | 0.3 |
| Bench | Chris Dickerson | OF | 0 | .252/.332/.384 | .319 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Bench | Andruw Jones | OF | 0 | .232/.327/.456 | .340 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Total | 281 | 189 | 37.4 |
I’m kind of hoping that Alex Rodriguez will be back in the lineup for good but I’ve given some of his PA to Eric Chavez in case. With Detroit’s rotation all right-handed, the Shockmaster™ should be mostly full-time. We may see Nun-E and Nixy a few times so I threw them a few PA as well. With these assumptions they’d project to score a bit less than one run more than the Tigers over seven games. Of course, they’ll have to hit a lot better than they hit in the ALDS to even sniff that number.
The pitching is a mess. By blowing Game 4, the Yankees lost the option to start CC in Game 1. The good news is they have Andy Pettitte fully rested to start Game 1. Unfortunately, they have no one else from the ALDS rotation who can start on full rest in Game 2. They could try Hiroki Kuroda on three days rest but he’s never started on three days rest and I don’t think they’ll go that route. My guess is they’ll use David Phelps with Derek Lowe caddying him in Game 2 and hope for the best, then bring back CC on three days rest to match up against Verlander in Game 3. That would set him up to pitch in the theoretical Game 7 that won’t happen since Detroit’s going to sweep but let’s let our imaginations run wild.
So my guess at the rotation is something like: Andy Pettitte, David Phelps, CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, Andy Pettitte, CC Sabathia.
The order could change. Pettitte would have four days rest before Game 5 so he could start that one. I’m more concerned about how the innings get allocated than the order for this so let’s press on.
| Player | Role | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | ERA |
| Andy Pettitte | SP1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 3.58 |
| Hiroki Kuroda | SP2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3.67 |
| CC Sabathia | SP3 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 3.44 |
| Phil Hughes | SP4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4.22 |
| David Phelps | SP5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4.06 |
| Rafael Soriano | CL | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3.41 |
| David Robertson | SU | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3.46 |
| Boone Logan | SU | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3.99 |
| Joba Chamberlain | MR | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4.14 |
| Clay Rapada | MR | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3.62 |
| Derek Lowe | MR | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4.64 |
| Cody Eppley | MR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.15 |
| Freddy Garcia | LR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.74 |
| Ivan Nova | LR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.60 |
| Total | 63 | 60 | 28 | 26 | 7 | 20 | 56 | 3.76 |
Because of the mess that is the rotation I gave Derek Lowe more innings than I’d typically give a long reliever and the worst projected pitcher on the staff. It shouldn’t make a huge difference on the bottom line though.
Based on this playing time the Yankees figure to allow around 28 runs, which makes them a roughly 62.7%/101.6 win team.
Detroit has a slight edge at .638 vs. .621. Having home field advantage gives the Yankees about a .006 boost, so you’ve got something like a .633 team playing a .624 team. Given that, here’s what my playoff simulator says for this series.
Yankees: 49.7%
Tigers: 50.3%
The Tigers are slight favorites, but it’s basically a tossup. It’d be nice for the Yankees to avenge the last two times Detroit knocked them out of the playoffs, but I’m not betting on that happening.
Sunday, October 7, 2012
2012 ALDS Preview - Orioles vs. Yankees
After battling down to the wire, the Yankees were able to stave off the Orioles to win the AL East by two games. Their reward for that is to play the Orioles on the road for two games to start the ALDS.
All season long, we’ve heard/read/said that the Orioles were not for real, that they were lucky and that they were due to crash at any point. That was mainly a function of a run differential that was negative for almost the entire season as well as seemingly unsustainable records in both one run games (29-9) and extra inning games (16-2). In general, teams approach about .500 in those games although having a strong bullpen can help a team win a higher percentage of close games and that’s something the Orioles have had all season.
None of what the 2012 Orioles got lucky with matters right now. The only thing that matters is how good the 25 man roster they will have for the ALDS is, and how it may match up against the Yankees. Because of that, I’m going to look at projections for the Orioles and Yankees which will account for their performances this year as well as in recent prior seasons. This will account for the fact that some players may have over/under performed expectations and are possibly better or worse than their 2012 numbers, but more importantly it will account for the fact that the rosters and playing time distributions in a five game series are a lot different than they are in a 162 game season and simply comparing two teams’ over 2012 Pythagenpat records is the height of laziness when it comes to statistical analysis. Well that or using FIP for pitcher WAR. But I digress.
For the projections, I’m using Oliver from the Hardball Times. They’ve been updated as of last week and include 2012 MLEs for players that spent time in the minors so I feel they are the most complete version of forecasts available right now.
So, as I mentioned, it’s all about rosters and playing time. Based on what is out there, here is my rough guess at those two things. First up, the Orioles’ lineup and bench.
| Team | BAL | projection | oliver | ||||
| Order | Player | Pos | PA | avg/obp/slg | woba | Outs | BR |
| 1 | Nate McLouth | LF | 22 | .238/.325/.388 | .317 | 15 | 2.5 |
| 2 | J.J. Hardy | SS | 22 | .255/.297/.428 | .312 | 16 | 2.5 |
| 3 | Chris Davis | RF | 21 | .278/.331/.494 | .354 | 14 | 3.0 |
| 4 | Adam Jones | CF | 21 | .289/.330/.485 | .350 | 14 | 2.9 |
| 5 | Matt Wieters | C | 21 | .256/.325/.428 | .329 | 15 | 2.5 |
| 6 | Jim Thome | DH | 15 | .276/.379/.558 | .400 | 10 | 2.6 |
| 7 | Mark Reynolds | 1B | 21 | .229/.335/.481 | .352 | 14 | 2.9 |
| 8 | Manny Machado | 3B | 21 | .249/.300/.393 | .303 | 15 | 2.2 |
| 9 | Ryan Flaherty | 2B | 12 | .247/.298/.400 | .304 | 9 | 1.3 |
| Bench | Luis Exposito | C | 0 | .232/.289/.360 | .287 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Bench | Taylor Teagarden | C | 0 | .202/.273/.337 | .272 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Bench | Omar Quintanilla | IF | 1 | .247/.304/.386 | .302 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Bench | Robert Andino | UT | 8 | .243/.297/.351 | .288 | 6 | 0.7 |
| Bench | Lew Ford | OF | 8 | .273/.330/.460 | .342 | 6 | 1.1 |
| Bench | Xavier Avery | OF | 1 | .233/.292/.328 | .276 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Bench | Endy Chavez | OF | 2 | .258/.295/.359 | .287 | 1 | 0.2 |
| Total | 196 | 135 | 24.5 |
wOBA: Weighted on base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
The idea here is to try and allocate PA over a 5 games series. So basically it was a case of adding PA until the team got to 135 outs (27 outs times 5 games). That includes double plays and obviously there may be games where teams don’t need to bat for 27 outs (home wins) but as long as the scale is the same for both teams it doesn’t matter.
The Yankees will be throwing lefties CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte in the first two games and if there was a game 5 it’d probably be CC again so that might impact some of the PAs for the lefties. So I gave some DH PA to Lew Ford instead of Jim Thome and some 2B PA to Robert Andino instead of Ryan Flaherty. For the most part I don’t expect the other bench guys to play much.
Basically this estimates that the Orioles would score about 24.5 runs in an average five game series using this allocation of playing time.
And here’s what the Yankees lineup and bench should like.
| Team | NYA | projection | oliver | ||||
| Order | Player | Pos | PA | avg/obp/slg | woba | Outs | BR |
| 1 | Derek Jeter | SS | 21 | .299/.353/.405 | .337 | 14 | 2.6 |
| 2 | Ichiro Suzuki | LF | 21 | .289/.324/.385 | .313 | 14 | 2.4 |
| 3 | Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 21 | .271/.348/.462 | .352 | 14 | 2.9 |
| 4 | Robinson Cano | 2B | 21 | .304/.361/.530 | .381 | 14 | 3.4 |
| 5 | Mark Teixeira | 1B | 21 | .256/.346/.489 | .359 | 14 | 3.0 |
| 6 | Nick Swisher | RF | 21 | .267/.357/.463 | .357 | 14 | 3.0 |
| 7 | Curtis Granderson | CF | 21 | .249/.337/.509 | .360 | 14 | 3.1 |
| 8 | Raul Ibanez | DH | 13 | .256/.319/.454 | .334 | 9 | 1.7 |
| 9 | Russell Martin | C | 20 | .232/.323/.389 | .317 | 14 | 2.2 |
| Bench | Eric Chavez | 3B | 10 | .264/.321/.431 | .327 | 7 | 1.2 |
| Bench | Eduardo Nunez | DH | 8 | .254/.294/.346 | .283 | 6 | 0.7 |
| Bench | Jayson Nix | IF | 3 | .216/.273/.356 | .276 | 2 | 0.3 |
| Bench | Chris Stewart | C | 0 | .230/.289/.318 | .272 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Bench | Brett Gardner | OF | 0 | .266/.360/.391 | .337 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Bench | Andruw Jones | OF | 0 | .232/.327/.456 | .340 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Bench | Chris Dickerson | IF | 0 | .252/.332/.384 | .319 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Total | 201 | 135 | 26.4 |
Yes, I know Andruw Jones and Chris Dickerson are not on the roster. They are just place holders. Anyway, the only spot I see some finagling of playing time is DH with some combination of Raul Ibanez, Eduardo Nunez, Alex Rodriguez and Eric Chavez. I threw Jayson Nix three PA for the hell of it as well.
So the Yankees have a very slight offensive edge here, 26.4 runs to 24.5 runs.
How about the pitching? Here’s my stab at the Orioles first.
| Player | Role | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | ERA |
| Jason Hammel | SP1 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4.06 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | SP2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4.06 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | SP3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4.78 |
| Chris Tillman | SP4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5.22 |
| Joe Saunders | SP5 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4.52 |
| Jim Johnson | CL | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3.48 |
| Pedro Strop | SU | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4.12 |
| Luis Ayala | SU | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4.04 |
| Darren O’Day | MR | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3.56 |
| Brian Matusz | MR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5.09 |
| Jake Arrieta | MR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4.82 |
| Troy Patton | MR | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3.97 |
| Tommy Hunter | LR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.85 |
| Zach Britton | LR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.44 |
| Total | 45 | 46 | 23 | 21 | 6 | 15 | 34 | 4.28 |
Apparently the Orioles will be using Jason hammel, Wei-Yin Chen and Miguel Gonzalez in the first three games. It’s expected that Chris Tillman would pitch the fourth game if necessary although it could also be Zach Britton or Joe Saunders. So a lot of this could be impacted by how that plays out.
Although Hammel is on tab to pitch the opener which should make him available for Game 5 if needed, he hasn’t been healthy in the second half so I restricted him to one start and gave a start to Joe Saunders. Because Oliver doesn’t like most of the O’s starting pitchers after Hammel and Chen and I think it may be underselling them a bit I limited them to five innings and gave more innings to the bullpen where they have better projected performers.
The big question for Baltimore is whether Gonzalez and Tillman are closer to the 3.25 and 2.93 ERAs they posted in the regular season or to their 4.78 and 5.22 projected ERAs. It’s the difference of two runs in this scenario. That may not seem like much, but it’s the equivalent of a swing of about six wins in a five game series but I’ll get into that in more detail shortly.
Same crap for the Yankees.
| Player | Role | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | ERA |
| CC Sabathia | SP1 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 3.44 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3.58 |
| Hiroki Kuroda | SP3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3.67 |
| Phil Hughes | SP4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4.22 |
| Ivan Nova | SP5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.60 |
| Rafael Soriano | CL | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3.41 |
| David Robertson | SU | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3.46 |
| Boone Logan | SU | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3.99 |
| David Phelps | MR | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4.06 |
| Joba Chamberlain | MR | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4.14 |
| Clay Rapada | MR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.62 |
| Cody Eppley | MR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4.15 |
| Derek Lowe | LR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4.64 |
| Cory Wade | LR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.21 |
| Total | 45 | 42 | 20 | 18 | 5 | 14 | 41 | 3.68 |
The Yankees should be in very good shape if the CC Sabathia we saw in his last three starts is the CC Sabathia we see this postseason. His velocity still hasn’t been overly impressive to me and the fact that he pitched well against an awful Blue Jays team and an even worse Red Sox team isn’t overly impressive to me either. But let’s hope for the best.
So we’re looking at a Yankee pitching staff that projects to allow around 20 runs vs. a Baltimore staff that projects to allow 23. Running the offensive and pitching numbers through Pythagenpat looks like this.
| Team | BAL | NYA |
| RS | 24.5 | 26.4 |
| RA | 23.1 | 19.9 |
| pyth | .528 | .631 |
| p162 | 85.5 | 102.2 |
| w% | 39.7% | 60.3% |
If you instead think that Gonzalez and Tillman are the guys they were in 2012 it looks like this.
| Team | BAL | NYA |
| RS | 24.5 | 26.4 |
| RA | 21.0 | 19.9 |
| pyth | .572 | .631 |
| p162 | 92.7 | 102.2 |
| w% | 44.1% | 55.9% |
That seems a bit closer to reality for me. The Yankees should be favorites to win this series, but not overwhelmingly so.
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Yahoo: Yankees-Blue Jays Preview
Already without Mariano Rivera (torn ACL), New York placed fill-in closer David Robertson on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday with a strained muscle in his left ribcage.
“We lost Mariano first. The bullpen will do whatever we have to do,” said Rafael Soriano, who is expected to take over for Robertson. “Now with two guys down, it’s not easy for us.”The Yankees have dropped 12 of 19 at Toronto.
I thought the Yankees had done pretty poorly in Toronto recently, but had no idea it was that bad. Needless to say I’m not expecting a great series this week given the current state of the team. Luckily it’s only a two-gamer. Then it’s back home to begin the inanity of interleague play.
Monday, April 16, 2012
CBS Sports: MLB Preview: Minnesota at New York
Including postseason, Derek Jeter and the New York Yankees have won 33 of 40 at home against the Twins over the past decade, and Yankee Stadium fans will likely be relishing the chance to rudely greet Minnesota starter Carl Pavano.
Minnesota (2-7) was swept over the weekend by Texas at home, and now faces a major nemesis. The Yankees (5-4) have eliminated Ron Gardenhire’s club from the playoffs four times in the decade since he took over as Twins manager, and he’s well aware of his poor record in the Bronx.
“We just play the schedule,” Gardenhire told MLB.com. “We’ll go to New York for four tough games, and then off to Tampa for three more tough ballgames. So it’s a tough road trip.”
The Twins didn’t project to be very good this year and so far they’re living up to that. While they’re probably better than the 36-126 pace that they’re on, they may be the worst team in the American League. Which would make them the favorite for the NL Wild Card. The Twins’ primary problem this year has been offense. Only Oakland is scoring fewer runs per game than them. Their pitching has also been pretty crappy with an RA of 5.33 per game, but that’s better than four other teams. Interesting note, Tampa Bay has the worst RA in the league. Mentioning this allows me to post this very irritating table of Tampa Bay’s 2012 pitching splits so far.
| Split | W | L | RA | FIP | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | BF | BB/BF | K/BF | BABIP |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 3 | 11.63 | 7.78 | 24 | 39 | 31 | 31 | 7 | 16 | 16 | 124 | 12.9% | 12.9% | .381 |
| New York Yankees | 3 | 0 | 4.00 | 5.09 | 27 | 21 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 18 | 16 | 119 | 15.1% | 13.4% | .232 |
If it makes you feel better, I’m sure Tampa Bay’s fan is not happy about this either.
Back to the Twins, the pitching matchups for this series are:
Monday, April 16, 7:05 PM ET
Carl Pavano vs. Freddy Garcia
Tuesday, April 17, 7:05 PM ET
Francisco Liriano vs. CC Sabathia
Wednesday, April 18, 7:05 PM ET
Jason Marquis vs. Hiroki Kuroda
Thursday, April 19, 7:05 PM ET
To be announced vs. Phil Hughes
You have to give the Twins the edge in that Thursday match up. Pavano vs. Garcia is probably a tossup, and I’d give the Yankees the edge in the other two matchups. A sweep of a four game series is tough no matter how poor the opponent, but I’ll be disappointed in anything less.
This also means that Ivan Nova will start the first game of the Yankees’ next series in Fenway. I trust Nova more than any other pitcher in the rotation right now (given the way CC’s looked so far) to pitch decently against Boston, which means he’ll probably get shelled.
Friday, September 30, 2011
2011 ALDS Preview: Tigers vs. Yankees
The first obstacle in the quest to end the dreaded curse of The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske is the Detroit Tigers.
Seriously, it has been 694 days, 11 hours, 15 minutes, and 45 seconds since the New York Yankees have won a World Series. We have suffered long enough, haven’t we? When will this infernal madness end?
So how big of an obstacle are the Tigers? Let’s take a look.
First, I’ll acknowledge the obvious fact that the Tigers played in and won the AL Central which is probably the weakest division in the AL.
I’ll then say that it doesn’t matter. This is a very good team, and it’s not a stretch to envision them representing the AL in the World Series.
If you read the Rays/Rangers preview you can skip the next paragraph.
I don’t particularly find any series previews that focus on what a team did in the preceding full season of much use. It doesn’t really matter if a team scored 5.2 runs per game and allowed 4.2 runs per game over the preceding six months. Rosters change, injuries happen, players come and go, talent changes, and player and team performance is often subject to fluctuations that are not predictive. What I want to know is how many runs will the team and roster as currently configured score and allow. Because of that, for these previews I’ll be using projections in lieu of 2011 stats. Despite having my own system in CAIRO, I’m going to use the Hardball Times’s Oliver forecasts since I haven’t had the time to re-run CAIRO for this year. Oliver is updated weekly during the season and includes 2011 MLEs for players who saw time in the minors.
The biggest consideration in trying to see how any series may shape up is allocating playing time. So here are depth charts for the two teams, based on the assumption that each team will make 25 outs at the plate over 5 games and that pitchers will combine for 45 innings. Since I didn’t have official postseason rosters while writing parts of these, some of it is guesswork and is subject to change.
Here are the Oliver projections for the Tigers’ postseason position players.
| Name | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Jackson, Austin | CF | 21 | .263/.315/.374 | 14 | 2.24 | .303 | .311 | .300 |
| Kelly, Don | 3B | 21 | .268/.312/.413 | 14 | 2.34 | .314 | .286 | .317 |
| Young, Delmon | LF | 21 | .283/.314/.446 | 14 | 2.52 | .327 | .344 | .320 |
| Cabrera, Miguel | 1B | 21 | .334/.422/.602 | 12 | 4.11 | .435 | .455 | .429 |
| Martinez, Victor | C | 21 | .312/.365/.480 | 13 | 3.08 | .367 | .372 | .364 |
| Peralta, Jhonny | SS | 21 | .270/.324/.426 | 14 | 2.50 | .326 | .339 | .321 |
| Avila, Alex | C | 21 | .270/.351/.456 | 14 | 2.89 | .350 | .327 | .356 |
| Dirks, Andy | RF | 21 | .265/.311/.415 | 14 | 2.45 | .315 | .294 | .318 |
| Santiago, Ramon | 2B | 21 | .276/.319/.394 | 14 | 2.30 | .307 | .304 | .308 |
| Starter Total | 189 | .282/.337/.444 | 125 | 24.42 | .338 | .338 | .338 | |
| Bench | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Betemit, Wilson | IF | 0 | .259/.323/.424 | 0 | 0.00 | .325 | .298 | .334 |
| Ordonez, Magglio | OF | 0 | .282/.344/.412 | 0 | 0.00 | .334 | .352 | .329 |
| Raburn, Ryan | OF | 0 | .268/.317/.465 | 0 | 0.00 | .334 | .349 | .323 |
| Rhymes, Will | 2B | 0 | .272/.326/.361 | 0 | 0.00 | .303 | .283 | .307 |
| Inge, Brandon | 3B | 0 | .230/.304/.384 | 0 | 0.00 | .303 | .328 | .294 |
| Worth, Danny | IF | 0 | .229/.284/.328 | 0 | 0.00 | .272 | .283 | .263 |
| Kelly, Don | UT | 0 | .268/.312/.413 | 0 | 0.00 | .314 | .286 | .317 |
| Santos, Omir | C | 0 | .228/.255/.333 | 0 | 0.00 | .255 | .264 | .250 |
| Bench Total | ||||||||
| Team Total | 189 | .282/.337/.444 | 125 | 24.42 | .338 | .338 | .338 |
Outs: Outs at the plate (assumes 25 outs per 9 innings, calculated as (1 - OBP) times PA + GDP per PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
vs. L/R: Projected wOBA splits vs. LHP/RHP using regressed platoon splits
Rather than guess about how the Tigers may allocate playing time, I just gave the expected starting lineup all 125 outs.
The biggest problem here is Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera’s pretty much the best hitter in the AL. In fact, only one player has been a better hitter than him over the last three years, and that’s Albert Pujols. That projected wOBA of .455 vs. LHP is terrifying for Game 1. The Yankees probably don’t have much room for error facing Verlander, so the Cabrera/Sabathia matchup is probably going to be the one to watch. You can see by the OBP of the rest of the team that keeping people like Austin Jackson, Don Kelly and Delmon Young off the bases in front of Cabrera is going to be imperative.
The Tigers overall don’t have much of a projected platoon split, so the Yankees’ lack of left-handed pitching shouldn’t be a big deal.
I don’t think any Tigers fans would disagree that the Yankees’ lineup is better. Their hopes are going to lay on their pitching staff, and that’s not a bad position to be in.
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Verlander, Justin | SP1 | 14 | 4.8 | 3.11 | 2.89 | 3.05 |
| Fister, Doug | SP2 | 6 | 2.6 | 3.94 | 3.67 | 3.49 |
| Scherzer, Max | SP3 | 6 | 3.1 | 4.61 | 4.10 | 3.98 |
| Porcello, Rick | SP4 | 5 | 2.7 | 4.88 | 4.51 | 4.35 |
| Penny, Brad | SP5 | 0 | 0.0 | 5.43 | 4.85 | 4.65 |
| Starter Total | 31 | 13.3 | 3.85 | 3.54 | 3.52 | |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Valverde, Jose | CL | 3 | 1.3 | 3.90 | 3.61 | 3.72 |
| Benoit, Joaquin | SU | 3 | 1.1 | 3.25 | 3.01 | 3.10 |
| Alburquerque, Al | SU | 2 | 0.9 | 4.20 | 3.89 | 3.71 |
| Coke, Phil | SU | 2 | 1.0 | 4.40 | 4.07 | 3.68 |
| Pauley, David | MR | 2 | 1.1 | 4.76 | 4.41 | 4.44 |
| Perry, Ryan | MR | 1 | 0.5 | 4.61 | 4.27 | 4.12 |
| Schlereth, Daniel | MR | 1 | 0.5 | 4.85 | 4.49 | 4.31 |
| Marte, Luis | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.26 | 4.87 | 4.97 |
| Below, Duane | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.49 | 5.08 | 5.33 |
| LR | 0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Reliever Total | 14 | 6.4 | 4.12 | 3.81 | 3.75 | |
| Team Total | 45 | 19.7 | 3.93 | 3.62 | 3.59 |
RA: Runs allowed per 9, calculated as 1.08*ERA
ERA: Earned runs allowed per 9
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
Justin Verlander’s obviously the man here. He’s been the best pitcher in baseball this year and is a worthy MVP candidate. He’s backed up by mid-season acquisition Doug Fister, who’s been sublime for the Tigers. The Tigers are 9-2 in his 11 starts, and he’s pitched 70.1 innings and allowed just 19 runs. He’s faced 273 batters and walked 5 of them. Seriously. He’s probably not quite that good, but he’d project as the second-best starter on the Yankees.
Jim Leyland has said that he will not pitch Verlander on three days rest, so I’m giving Rick Porcello five innings. I don’t know if things would change if the Tigers go down 2-1. If they did that, they could throw Fister in Game 5 and not use Porcello in the rotation at all.
The Tigers’ defense has been about average overall, not much different than the Yankees. So I’m not going to bother with talking about that.
So, how about the Yankees’ projections?
| Name | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 22 | .306/.363/.416 | 14 | 2.83 | .345 | .369 | .337 |
| Granderson, Curtis | CF | 22 | .259/.342/.496 | 14 | 3.24 | .358 | .314 | .374 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 22 | .312/.359/.511 | 14 | 3.38 | .374 | .358 | .381 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 18 | .289/.367/.527 | 11 | 2.89 | .382 | .389 | .380 |
| Teixeira, Mark | 1B | 22 | .265/.357/.498 | 14 | 3.29 | .369 | .380 | .364 |
| Swisher, Nick | RF | 21 | .271/.364/.475 | 13 | 3.03 | .364 | .375 | .359 |
| Posada, Jorge | DH | 16 | .259/.345/.448 | 10 | 2.12 | .347 | .347 | .347 |
| Martin, Russell | C | 21 | .252/.345/.380 | 14 | 2.39 | .326 | .344 | .320 |
| Gardner, Brett | LF | 19 | .269/.353/.376 | 12 | 2.34 | .326 | .306 | .332 |
| Starter Total | 183 | .277/.355/.460 | 118 | 25.50 | .355 | .354 | .355 | |
| Bench | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Montero, Jesus | DH | 4 | .278/.329/.483 | 3 | 0.54 | .348 | .361 | .340 |
| Jones, Andruw | OF | 2 | .251/.344/.502 | 1 | 0.30 | .363 | .381 | .357 |
| Nunez, Eduardo | IF | 0 | .278/.308/.381 | 0 | 0.00 | .301 | .302 | .300 |
| Chavez, Eric | 3B | 4 | .245/.296/.355 | 3 | 0.38 | .288 | .257 | .300 |
| Romine, Austin | C | 0 | .246/.289/.364 | 0 | 0.00 | .287 | .300 | .283 |
| Dickerson, Chris | OF | 0 | .239/.315/.341 | 0 | 0.00 | .295 | .272 | .299 |
| Pena, Ramiro | IF | 0 | .239/.283/.327 | 0 | 0.00 | .269 | .256 | .273 |
| Cervelli, Francisco | C | 0 | .263/.314/.365 | 0 | 0.00 | .298 | .310 | .293 |
| Bench Total | 10 | .260/.319/.435 | 7 | 1.22 | .327 | .323 | .327 | |
| Team Total | 193 | .276/.353/.458 | 125 | 26.72 | .353 | .352 | .354 |
I’ve relegated Jesus Montero to pinch-hitting status, since DH vs. LHP is effectively a non-position vs. Detroit. I suppose we may see him pinch-hit for Posada if a one of Phil Coke/Daniel Schlereth is on the mound. Or he could get a start if Posada doesn’t look so good. Statistically, Posada’s projection vs. RHP is better than Montero’s so I suppose it’s the logical approach. I’m also not sanguine on A-Rod playing every inning so I’ve given Chavez four PA, and I’m assuming we may see Andruw Jones pinch-hit for TSBG in a late situation vs. a LHP where an XBH would be of additional benefit.
Oliver thinks the Yankees have the best offense in the postseason, and I’d agree with that. Unfortunately, the Yankees have to pitch too.
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Sabathia, CC | SP1 | 14 | 5.8 | 3.70 | 3.43 | 3.28 |
| Nova, Ivan | SP2 | 12 | 6.4 | 4.77 | 4.36 | 4.33 |
| Garcia, Freddy | SP3 | 5 | 2.6 | 4.60 | 4.36 | 4.33 |
| Colon, Bartolo | SP4 | 0 | 0.0 | 4.82 | 4.04 | 3.97 |
| Burnett, A.J. | SP5 | 0 | 0.0 | 5.21 | 4.82 | 4.49 |
| Hughes, Phil | SP6 | 0 | 0.0 | 4.45 | 4.12 | 4.17 |
| Betances, Dellin | SP7 | 0 | 0.0 | 5.36 | 4.96 | 4.83 |
| Brackman, Andrew | SP8 | 0 | 0.0 | 6.80 | 6.30 | 5.88 |
| Starter Total | 31 | 14.7 | 4.26 | 3.94 | 3.86 | |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Rivera, Mariano | CL | 3 | 1.0 | 3.03 | 2.81 | 2.89 |
| Robertson, David | SU | 3 | 1.2 | 3.75 | 3.47 | 3.05 |
| Soriano, Rafael | SU | 2 | 0.8 | 3.61 | 3.34 | 3.64 |
| Logan, Boone | SU | 2 | 1.0 | 4.32 | 4.00 | 3.77 |
| Wade, Cory | MR | 2 | 1.0 | 4.38 | 4.06 | 4.09 |
| Ayala, Luis | MR | 2 | 1.0 | 4.50 | 4.17 | 3.92 |
| Noesi, Hector | MR | 0 | 0.0 | 4.59 | 4.25 | 4.03 |
| Proctor, Scott | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.78 | 5.35 | 5.21 |
| Laffey, Aaron | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.56 | 5.15 | 4.59 |
| Kontos, George | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.38 | 4.98 | 5.02 |
| Reliever Total | 14 | 6.0 | 3.86 | 3.57 | 3.48 | |
| Team Total | 45 | 20.7 | 4.14 | 3.82 | 3.74 |
The assumption here is CC on three days rest. I’m assuming that Burnett and Hughes won’t pitch even though they’re on the roster, but if they do pitch their innings would probably just replace Ayala or Wade’s and it shouldn’t make a big difference.
The Yankees probably have the worst projected rotation in the postseason. CC’s as good as anyone, but after that there’s some concern about Nova and Garcia. I do think that projection is a little bearish on Nova since we have evidence that his new slider has made a meaningful improvement that wouldn’t be captured in a projection system.
Nova pre-slider: 226 BF, 9.3% BB/BF, 11.5% K/BF, 5.19 RA, 4.29 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 4.92 xFIP
Nova post-slider: 278 BF, 7.5% BB/BF, 15.1% K/BF, 3.52 RA, 3.44 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 4.03 xFIP
The Yankee bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this year, and although the projections think most of them pitched above their head they’re probably still better than Detroit’s from top to bottom. So the Yankees should be able to mitigate their slight disadvantage in the rotation by using the relievers aggressively. I can imagine that any David Robertson/Miguel Cabrera battles are going to be must-see baseball.
These depth charts say this.
| Team | Gms | RS | RA | wpct | p162 |
| DET | 5 | 24.4 | 19.7 | .600 | 97 |
| NYA | 5 | 26.7 | 20.7 | .620 | 100 |
If I play the series out 10,000 times in my Monte Carlo simulator I get these odds.
Yankees: 53.9%
Tigers: 46.1%
If the Tigers do decide to use Verlander in Game 4 and Fister in Game 5 they improve to about a .612 wpct/99 win team. Basically, those two teams are equivalent. The Yankees get the slight edge of one extra home game if necessary. In that case the odds look like this.
Yankees: 51.9%
Tigers: 48.1%
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Probable Pitchers: Rays at Yankees, July 7 - 10
Thursday, July 7, 7:05 PM ET
Jeff Niemann (46.3 IP, 5.63 RA, 4.60 FIP) vs. Bartolo Colon (73.0 IP, 2.84 RA, 3.50 FIP)
Friday, July 8, 7:05 PM ET
Jeremy Hellickson (103.7 IP, 3.39 RA, 4.55 FIP) vs. Freddy Garcia (91.0 IP, 3.36 RA, 4.21 FIP)
Saturday, July 9, 1:05 PM ET
David Price (124.0 IP, 3.63 RA, 2.98 FIP) vs. A.J. Burnett (113.7 IP, 4.51 RA, 4.71 FIP)
Sunday, July 10, 1:05 PM ET
James Shields (134.7 IP, 2.74 RA, 3.32 FIP) vs. CC Sabathia (136.7 IP, 3.36 RA, 2.82 FIP)
Saturday looks like a guaranteed loss, and Sunday looks like a coin flip, so let’s hope the Yankees can steal the first two.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
2010 ALCS Preview: Rangers vs. Yankees
Rangers in 3 or 4?
Well, we’re down to two teams in the quest for who gets to lose to the Phillies in the World Series.
The Rangers have returned to the postseason for the first time since 1999 and have won a postseason series for the first time in their history, beating the AL East champion Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS.
The Yankees weren’t even good enough to beat out the Rays for the AL East and instead had to back into the playoffs as the wild card. To put this simply:
A) The Rays are better than the Yankees as evidenced by winning the AL East
B) The Rangers are better than the Rays as evidenced by winning their playoff series against them
Despite this, they are actually going to play the games, so maybe the unexpected will happen.
Here’s how the Rangers’ position player project.
| Lineup | Pos | 2010 OBP | 2010 wOBA | Proj OBP | Proj wOBA | PA | Outs | BR | Def |
| Elvis Andrus | SS | .335 | .296 | .310 | .309 | 35 | 24 | 3.52 | 0.2 |
| Michael Young | 3B | .331 | .336 | .340 | .341 | 35 | 23 | 4.51 | -0.6 |
| Josh Hamilton | CF | .411 | .444 | .366 | .392 | 35 | 22 | 6.06 | 0.0 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | DH | .346 | .361 | .355 | .374 | 35 | 23 | 5.5 | 0.0 |
| Nelson Cruz | RF | .372 | .405 | .343 | .374 | 35 | 23 | 5.49 | 0.5 |
| Ian Kinsler | 2B | .380 | .357 | .352 | .357 | 32 | 21 | 4.59 | 0.2 |
| Mitch Moreland | 1B | .360 | .362 | .319 | .316 | 21 | 14 | 2.25 | 0.1 |
| Bengie Molina | C | .292 | .275 | .286 | .302 | 20 | 14 | 1.85 | 0.0 |
| Julio Borbon | LF | .304 | .287 | .314 | .297 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.0 |
| Andres Blanco | 2B | .326 | .298 | .311 | .297 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.0 |
| David Murphy | LF | .355 | .356 | .334 | .340 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.0 |
| Cristian Guzman | SS | .308 | .289 | .305 | .302 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.0 |
| Chris Davis | 1B | .279 | .267 | .286 | .319 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Matt Treanor | C | .285 | .266 | .289 | .277 | 6 | 4 | 0.44 | 0.0 |
| Jorge Cantu | 1B | .301 | .302 | .317 | .330 | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
PA: Plate appearances
Outs: calculated as (1- Proj OBP) times PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs over series estimate of playing time
Def: Projected defense over series estimate of playing time using an average of DRS, TZ, UZR and ZR
The Rangers offense isn’t great, but they’ve got some pretty good hitters and and a strong defensive team. One thing that they may benefit them is that they project slightly better against LHP.
| Vs. L | PA | wOBA | BR | Outs | |
| Elvis Andrus | 5.0 | .296 | 0.4 | 3.4 | |
| Michael Young | 4.7 | .356 | 0.7 | 3.0 | |
| Josh Hamilton | 4.0 | .365 | 0.6 | 2.6 | |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 4.0 | .391 | 0.7 | 2.5 | |
| Nelson Cruz | 4.0 | .387 | 0.7 | 2.6 | |
| Ian Kinsler | 4.0 | .378 | 0.6 | 2.5 | |
| Jorge Cantu | 4.0 | .340 | 0.5 | 2.7 | |
| Bengie Molina | 4.0 | .323 | 0.5 | 2.8 | |
| Jeff Francoeur | 4.0 | .331 | 0.5 | 2.9 | |
| Total | 37.7 | .350 | 5.2 | 25.0 | |
| Vs. R | PA | wOBA | BR | Outs | |
| Elvis Andrus | 5.0 | .278 | 0.4 | 3.5 | |
| Michael Young | 4.5 | .335 | 0.6 | 3.0 | |
| Josh Hamilton | 4.0 | .413 | 0.8 | 2.5 | |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 4.0 | .367 | 0.6 | 2.6 | |
| Nelson Cruz | 4.0 | .371 | 0.6 | 2.6 | |
| Ian Kinsler | 4.0 | .350 | 0.5 | 2.6 | |
| Mitch Moreland | 4.0 | .357 | 0.6 | 2.6 | |
| Bengie Molina | 4.0 | .292 | 0.3 | 2.9 | |
| Julio Borbon | 4.0 | .301 | 0.4 | 2.7 | |
| Total | 37.5 | .339 | 4.8 | 25.0 |
I’m assuming they would play Jeff Francoeur and Jorge Cantu against lefties since they project better than Julio Borbon and Mitch Moreland, but the Rangers may have reasons for not doing that. Even if they don’t, they still project better versus lefties, which is good for them since the Yankees would be starting lefties in four of the potential seven games.
Truth be told, the pitching staff is where the Rangers really shined in 2010. Here’s how they project.
| Pitcher | Role | 2010 RA | 2010 FIP | Proj RA | Proj FIP | IP | R |
| C.J. Wilson | SP1 | 3.66 | 3.59 | 3.93 | 3.68 | 13 | 5.7 |
| Colby Lewis | SP2 | 4.04 | 3.51 | 4.70 | 4.03 | 13 | 6.8 |
| Cliff Lee | SP3 | 3.56 | 2.59 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 15 | 6.2 |
| Tommy Hunter | SP4 | 3.87 | 4.99 | 5.19 | 4.98 | 5 | 2.9 |
| Neftali Feliz | CL | 2.73 | 2.97 | 3.51 | 3.06 | 4 | 1.6 |
| Darren O’Day | SU | 2.18 | 3.58 | 3.26 | 3.61 | 4 | 1.4 |
| Darren Oliver | MR | 2.97 | 2.64 | 3.41 | 3.43 | 4 | 1.5 |
| Derek Holland | MR | 4.71 | 4.04 | 5.94 | 4.63 | 2 | 1.3 |
| Alexi Ogando | MR | 1.33 | 3.16 | 3.75 | 3.77 | 2 | 0.8 |
| Dustin Nippert | MR | 4.37 | 4.95 | 5.47 | 4.97 | 1 | 0.6 |
2010/Proj RA: 2010/projected run allowed per nine innings
2010/Proj FIP: 2010/projected Fielding Independent Pitching
IP: Estimated innings pitched in this series
R: Estimated runs allowed in this series (Projected RA divided by nine times IP)
Obviously, we all know about Cliff Lee, the greatest postseason pitcher ever. Lee’s not scheduled to start until Game 3 though, with C.J. Wilson getting the nod in the opener and Colby Lewis following up in Game 2.
Wilson’s a lefty who was primarily a reliever the last few years, but was moved into the rotation this year and did very well. He may not be 3.35 ERA good, but he’s good.
Lewis was a pretty hot prospect a few years ago but put up a 6.71 ERA from 2002-2007 before winding up in Japan, where he pitched for the Hiroshima Carp in 2008 and 2009. Lewis pitched very well there and then made a triumphant return to MLB and put up a very good year. He doesn’t throw as hard as he did when he first came up, but he’s shown an improved slider and better command. His peripherals are in line with his performance too, so he looks like he’s a legitimately good pitcher now.
Cliff Lee has NEVER lost a postseason game. EVER. Think about how amazing that is. No one has every faced Cliff Lee in a postseason game and beaten him. In the entire history of baseball.
Seriously, we know Lee’s good, and the Yankees are probably going to have to beat him at least once if they want a shot at advancing.
I’m not sure if the Rangers will go with Tommy Hunter as their fourth starter, but it could be him or Matt Harrison I guess. Whomever it is, he’ll be better than A.J. Burnett at least.
Here are the Yankees’s position player projections. They’re the same as they were for the ALDS aside from adjusting the playing time to reflect a seven game series.
| Lineup | Pos | 2010 OBP | 2010 wOBA | Proj OBP | Proj wOBA | PA | Outs | BR | Def |
| Derek Jeter | SS | .339 | .322 | .361 | .346 | 30 | 19 | 3.99 | -0.4 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | .357 | .370 | .353 | .359 | 30 | 19 | 4.34 | 0.1 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | .366 | .369 | .372 | .388 | 30 | 19 | 5.09 | 0.2 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | .341 | .360 | .369 | .388 | 30 | 19 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | .382 | .394 | .356 | .376 | 30 | 19 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| Jorge Posada | C | .358 | .358 | .361 | .367 | 26 | 17 | 3.93 | -0.1 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | .323 | .343 | .334 | .348 | 25 | 17 | 3.37 | 0.2 |
| Lance Berkman | DH | .368 | .350 | .381 | .384 | 20 | 12 | 3.32 | 0.0 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | .379 | .358 | .356 | .325 | 20 | 13 | 2.3 | 0.4 |
| Francisco Cervelli | C | .350 | .311 | .314 | .296 | 5 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.0 |
| Marcus Thames | DH | .352 | .364 | .310 | .340 | 16 | 11 | 2.05 | 0.0 |
| Austin Kearns | RF | .351 | .336 | .335 | .326 | 5 | 3 | 0.58 | 0.0 |
| Ramiro Pena | SS | .256 | .237 | .296 | .274 | 3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.0 |
| Greg Golson | RF | .261 | .226 | .265 | .268 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.1 |
There’s really not much I can tell you here that you don’t already know. Expect to see Thames against lefties and Berkman against righties at DH, and I have a hunch that Francisco Cervelli will get a start with Burnett since they had such good chemistry this year.
And the pitching projections, again just adjusted for a seven game series.
| Pitcher | Role | 2010 RA | 2010 FIP | Proj RA | Proj FIP | IP | R |
| CC Sabathia | SP1 | 3.48 | 3.55 | 3.48 | 3.39 | 14 | 5.4 |
| Phil Hughes | SP2 | 4.24 | 4.29 | 4.56 | 4.12 | 12 | 6.1 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP3 | 3.63 | 3.96 | 4.35 | 3.97 | 13 | 6.3 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP4 | 5.69 | 4.81 | 5.11 | 4.68 | 5 | 2.8 |
| Mariano Rivera | CL | 2.10 | 2.85 | 2.43 | 2.77 | 4 | 1.1 |
| David Robertson | SU | 3.54 | 3.54 | 3.97 | 3.39 | 4 | 1.8 |
| Kerry Wood | MR | 3.33 | 4.09 | 3.99 | 3.95 | 4 | 1.8 |
| Joba Chamberlain | MR | 4.58 | 2.94 | 4.70 | 3.94 | 3 | 1.6 |
| Boone Logan | MR | 2.97 | 3.73 | 4.55 | 4.24 | 3 | 1.5 |
| Sergio Mitre | MR | 3.91 | 4.79 | 5.21 | 4.52 | 1 | 0.6 |
| Dustin Moseley | MR | 4.77 | 5.81 | 5.88 | 5.53 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Total | 63 | 28.9 | |||||
| 63 |
The Yankees will go with CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, Andy Pettitte and Burnett in the first four scheduled games, which sets up Sabathia, Hughes and Pettitte to pitch in Games 5-7 if necessary. Expect to see most of the relief innings going to Mo, Kerry Wood, Dave Robertson and Boone Logan primarily, perhaps with some Joba Chamberlain mixed in.
On paper, the Yankees are probably the better team. However, if we factor in the fact that the Rangers are better against LHP and the Yankees are worse against LHP, that narrows the gap some. Since the Rangers did the honorable thing by winning their division, they get home field advantage in this series, which narrows the gap a hair more.
I received an email asking me about this article at Fangraphs by Dave Cameron saying that there was no difference in win probability between Cliff Lee starting Games 1 and 5 versus 3 and 7 and running some simulations to show that it’s false. The only problem is, it’s not false. A team’s probability of winning a series is the sum of their probabilities of winning each game, and the order doesn’t matter, assuming playing time is the same. If you want to argue that starting Lee earlier means you have the potential to use him more later in the series, then I suppose that’s possible, but aside from that, it doesn’t matter which games he starts.
| Team | Offense | Defense | Pitching | Pythagenpat | p162 |
| Rangers | 35.2 | 0.4 | 28.9 | .603 | 98 |
| VS | |||||
| Yankees | 39.6 | 0.3 | 28.9 | .647 | 105 |
Pythagenpat: Estimated win percentage based on projected offense/defense + pitching, adjusted for home field advantage
p162: Pythagenpat times 162 games (full season win equivalency)
Anyway, based on these depth charts and accounting for HFA, the Rangers look like around a 98 win team and the Yankees look like around a 105 win team. So what happens if they play the ALCS 10,000 times?
Rangers: 45.2%
Yankees: 54.8%
Which is all just a fancy way of saying Rangers in 3.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
2010 ALDS Preview: Rangers vs. Rays
Who will the Twins play in the next round?
Since Joe Maddon took his time to get his roster in, this is going to be be quick.
Here are the Rangers’s position player projections.
| Lineup | Pos | 2010 OBP | 2010 wOBA | Proj OBP | Proj wOBA | PA | Outs | BR | Def |
| Elvis Andrus | SS | .335 | .296 | .310 | .309 | 20 | 14 | 2 | 0.1 |
| Michael Young | 3B | .331 | .336 | .340 | .341 | 20 | 13 | 3 | -0.3 |
| Josh Hamilton | CF | .411 | .444 | .366 | .392 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0.0 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | DH | .346 | .361 | .355 | .374 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0.0 |
| Nelson Cruz | RF | .372 | .405 | .343 | .374 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Ian Kinsler | 2B | .380 | .357 | .352 | .357 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0.1 |
| Mitch Moreland | 1B | .360 | .362 | .319 | .316 | 15 | 10 | 2 | 0.1 |
| Bengie Molina | C | .292 | .275 | .286 | .302 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Julio Borbon | LF | .304 | .287 | .314 | .297 | 10 | 7 | 1 | -0.1 |
| Andres Blanco | 2B | .326 | .298 | .311 | .297 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0.0 |
| David Murphy | LF | .355 | .356 | .334 | .340 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Cristian Guzman | SS | .308 | .289 | .305 | .302 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Chris Davis | 1B | .279 | .267 | .286 | .319 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Matt Treanor | C | .285 | .266 | .289 | .277 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Jorge Cantu | 1B | .301 | .302 | .317 | .330 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.0 |
The biggest issue the Rangers probably have on the position player side is Josh Hamilton’s health. He’s playing through a rib injury and it may affect his availablity and his effectiveness.
And their pitching projections,
| Pitcher | Role | 2010 RA | 2010 FIP | Proj RA | Proj FIP | IP | R |
| Cliff Lee | SP1 | 3.56 | 2.59 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 14 | 5.8 |
| C.J. Wilson | SP2 | 3.66 | 3.59 | 3.93 | 3.68 | 6 | 2.6 |
| Colby Lewis | SP3 | 4.04 | 3.51 | 4.70 | 4.03 | 6 | 3.1 |
| Tommy Hunter | SP4 | 3.87 | 4.99 | 5.19 | 4.98 | 5 | 2.9 |
| Neftali Feliz | CL | 2.73 | 2.97 | 4.13 | 3.60 | 3 | 1.4 |
| Darren O’Day | SU | 2.18 | 3.58 | 3.26 | 3.61 | 3 | 1.1 |
| Darren Oliver | MR | 2.97 | 2.64 | 3.41 | 3.43 | 3 | 1.1 |
| Derek Holland | MR | 4.71 | 4.04 | 5.94 | 4.63 | 2 | 1.3 |
| Alexi Ogando | MR | 1.33 | 3.16 | 3.75 | 3.77 | 2 | 0.8 |
| Dustin Nippert | MR | 4.37 | 4.95 | 5.47 | 4.97 | 1 | 0.6 |
Texas has got a pretty good pitching staff, especially when you account for the historical tendency of their home park to boost offense. Obviously Cliff Lee’s as good as any pitcher out there, and having him going twice in a series is a pretty good thing.
As far as the AL East champs, here are their projections.
| Lineup | Pos | 2010 OBP | 2010 wOBA | Proj OBP | Proj wOBA | PA | Outs | BR | Def |
| John Jaso | C | .371 | .343 | .343 | .324 | 15 | 10 | 2 | -0.1 |
| Carlos Pena | 1B | .324 | .325 | .352 | .366 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 0.0 |
| Sean Rodriguez | 2B | .305 | .312 | .323 | .338 | 20 | 14 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Jason Bartlett | SS | .318 | .298 | .332 | .318 | 20 | 13 | 2 | 0.1 |
| Evan Longoria | 3B | .372 | .380 | .367 | .391 | 21 | 13 | 4 | 0.4 |
| Carl Crawford | LF | .353 | .374 | .342 | .347 | 21 | 14 | 3 | 0.3 |
| B.J. Upton | CF | .324 | .339 | .341 | .334 | 20 | 13 | 2 | 0.0 |
| Ben Zobrist | RF | .345 | .325 | .351 | .341 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0.4 |
| Rocco Baldelli | RF | .208 | .238 | .303 | .331 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Reid Brignac | SS | .308 | .306 | .300 | .306 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Matt Joyce | RF | .359 | .361 | .321 | .330 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Kelly Shoppach | C | .308 | .296 | .311 | .329 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Dan Johnson | 1B | .341 | .337 | .350 | .347 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Desmond Jennings | CF | .292 | .267 | .316 | .311 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Pitcher | Role | 2010 RA | 2010 FIP | Proj RA | Proj FIP | IP | R |
| David Price | SP1 | 3.06 | 3.44 | 4.01 | 4.15 | 14 | 6.2 |
| James Shields | SP2 | 5.67 | 4.26 | 4.73 | 4.15 | 6 | 3.2 |
| Matt Garza | SP3 | 4.13 | 4.43 | 4.23 | 4.41 | 6 | 2.8 |
| Wade Davis | SP4 | 4.19 | 4.83 | 5.06 | 4.84 | 6 | 3.4 |
| Rafael Soriano | CL | 2.05 | 2.79 | 3.09 | 3.21 | 3 | 1.0 |
| Grant Balfour | SU | 2.60 | 2.75 | 3.45 | 3.30 | 3 | 1.2 |
| Joaquin Benoit | MR | 1.52 | 2.52 | 3.73 | 3.68 | 3 | 1.2 |
| Dan Wheeler | MR | 3.75 | 4.19 | 4.24 | 4.41 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Randy Choate | MR | 4.67 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 3.93 | 2 | 1.0 |
| Jeff Niemann | MR | 4.47 | 4.66 | 4.83 | 4.70 | 1 | 0.5 |
David Price is probably better than that projection, but we won’t know that for a while. Although James Shields had an ugly season, a lot of that had to do with a pretty high BABIP. I’m still surprised he’s starting Game 2 though.
So you’ve got:
| Team | Offense | Defense | Pitching | Pythagenpat | p162 |
| Rangers | 24.1 | 0.2 | 20.8 | .568 | 92 |
| VS | |||||
| Rays | 24.5 | 1.7 | 21.0 | .613 | 99 |
And 10,000 simulations of that series says:
Rays: 53.9%
Rangers: 46.1%
Monday, October 4, 2010
How Strong Are the 2010 Yankees Heading Into the Postseason? (Position Player Edition)
Now that the regular season is wrapped up, we can think about how the Yankees stack up in a short series and get a better feel for how they match up against the Twins.
As I tend to beat to death, we need to understand that what the players did in the current season should only be part of our assessment of their true talent level. The random fluctuations that happen during a season can skew our perception of how good or bad a player is. For that reason, I’m going to use projections for the postseason series previews instead of the actual 2010 data.
By doing this, I can:
a) Account for anomalously good or bad performances that are not likely repeatable.
b) Acount for the fact that the team that played over the 162 games is not the team that will be playing in a short series. If we want to think about how good the Yankees’ current 25 man roster is, there’s nothing useful in including the performances by people like Randy Winn, Colin Curtis, Kevin Russo or Chan Ho Park. So any analysis based on 2010 Pythagorean performance or what have you is woefully incomplete in my opinion.
That being said, projections are inherently limited. While the general principle behind them is essentially right for the body of professional players as a whole, they will not necessarily capture the nuances of a player’s performance in its entirety. If a player has suffered an actual physical change in his talent that has changed his ability to do some of the things he did prior to the year, the projection for that player is going to be wrong. We try to account for that by making sure we weigh recent performance most heavily.
So for the CAIRO projections that follow, be aware they are based on about 40% 2010, 60% 2007-2009 for position players. For pitchers I weigh recent performance a bit more heavily, around 45%.
First up, here are the Yankee position players’ offensive projections.
| Lineup | Pos | 2010 OBP | 2010 wOBA | Proj OBP | Proj wOBA | PA | Outs | BR | Def |
| Derek Jeter | SS | .339 | .322 | .361 | .346 | 21 | 13 | 3 | -0.3 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | .357 | .370 | .353 | .359 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0.1 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | .366 | .369 | .372 | .388 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0.1 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | .341 | .360 | .369 | .388 | 20 | 13 | 3 | -0.1 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | .382 | .394 | .356 | .376 | 20 | 13 | 3 | -0.1 |
| Jorge Posada | C | .358 | .358 | .361 | .367 | 15 | 10 | 2 | -0.1 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | .323 | .343 | .334 | .348 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0.1 |
| Lance Berkman | DH | .368 | .350 | .381 | .384 | 20 | 12 | 3 | 0.0 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | .379 | .358 | .356 | .325 | 20 | 13 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Francisco Cervelli | C | .350 | .311 | .314 | .296 | 11 | 10 | 1 | -0.1 |
| Marcus Thames | DH | .352 | .364 | .310 | .340 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Austin Kearns | RF | .351 | .336 | .335 | .326 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Ramiro Pena | SS | .256 | .237 | .296 | .274 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
PA: Plate appearances
Outs: calculated as (1- Proj OBP) times PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs over series estimate of playing time
Def: Projected defense over series estimate of playing time using an average of DRS, TZ, UZR and ZR (links at the bottom)
This is a rough depth chart based on assuming a five game series and assuming 25 outs made while batting per game. I’ve shown the 2010 actual OBP/wOBA as well as the projections. In the picture of a series, you’re looking at a total of about 27 runs in five games, roughly equal to an 865 run full season offense. I’ll get into the defense thing in more detail so ignore that for now.
This depth chart with the 2010 actual data would put up a wOBA of .354. Using the projection data instead puts it to .358. That’s less than a run’s worth of difference over 200 PA.
The other thing we need to think about is platooning. In the postseason, understanding how two teams match up is particularly crucial. If a team that is more susceptible to LHP is facing a team with the ability to throw several lefties against them, they’ll have a more difficult time than they would against an equally talented team which is not able to exploit a platoon advantage. So here’s how the Yankees primary starting lineup project overall as well as against LHP and RHP.
| Player | Overall | |||
| PA | wOBA | BR | Outs | |
| Derek Jeter | 5.0 | .346 | 0.7 | 3.2 |
| Nick Swisher | 5.0 | .359 | 0.7 | 3.2 |
| Mark Teixeira | 5.0 | .388 | 0.8 | 3.1 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 4.0 | .388 | 0.7 | 2.5 |
| Robinson Cano | 4.0 | .376 | 0.6 | 2.6 |
| Jorge Posada | 4.0 | .367 | 0.6 | 2.6 |
| Curtis Granderson | 4.0 | .348 | 0.5 | 2.7 |
| Lance Berkman | 4.0 | .384 | 0.7 | 2.5 |
| Brett Gardner | 4.0 | .325 | 0.5 | 2.6 |
| Total | 39.0 | .365 | 5.8 | 25.0 |
| Vs. L | PA | wOBA | BR | Outs |
| Derek Jeter | 5.0 | .365 | 0.7 | 3.1 |
| Nick Swisher | 5.0 | .370 | 0.8 | 3.2 |
| Mark Teixeira | 4.7 | .394 | 0.8 | 2.9 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 4.0 | .393 | 0.7 | 2.5 |
| Robinson Cano | 4.0 | .361 | 0.6 | 2.6 |
| Jorge Posada | 4.0 | .370 | 0.6 | 2.5 |
| Curtis Granderson | 4.0 | .298 | 0.4 | 2.9 |
| Lance Berkman | 4.0 | .339 | 0.5 | 2.7 |
| Brett Gardner | 4.0 | .308 | 0.4 | 2.7 |
| Total | 38.7 | .357 | 5.5 | 25.0 |
| Vs. R | PA | wOBA | BR | Outs |
| Derek Jeter | 5.0 | .336 | 0.6 | 3.2 |
| Nick Swisher | 5.0 | .357 | 0.7 | 3.3 |
| Mark Teixeira | 5.0 | .383 | 0.8 | 3.2 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 4.2 | .383 | 0.7 | 2.7 |
| Robinson Cano | 4.0 | .386 | 0.7 | 2.5 |
| Jorge Posada | 4.0 | .365 | 0.6 | 2.6 |
| Curtis Granderson | 4.0 | .364 | 0.6 | 2.6 |
| Lance Berkman | 4.0 | .396 | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| Brett Gardner | 4.0 | .334 | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| Total | 39.2 | .366 | 5.9 | 25.0 |
This version of the Yankee lineup is a bit more susceptible to LHP. The difference between a team that scores 5.9 runs per game and one that scores 5.5 runs per game is about five wins over a full season, although it depends on the run environment and the team’s pitching/defense. The Twins are going to have Francisco Liriano potentially going twice, and they may start Brian Duensing as well, and they have Jose Mijares and Brian Fuentes in the pen as useful lefty relievers so that could be an issue.
The good news is the Yankees can improve the lineup versus lefties by a bit if they replace Lance Berkman with Marcus Thames. They go to 5.6 runs a game with a straight swap. They may also want to consider replacing Granderson with Austin Kearns, although with the way the two are playing right now what may seem to be an upgrade on paper isn’t necessarily going to be one.
Now, we need to consider defense. It’s probably been apparent to regular readers that I haven’t talked as much about defensive metrics as I have in the past. The reason for that is the more I learn about the defensive metrics we have, the more I realize that they have some serious limitations that we need to be cognizant of.
That doesn’t mean we should ignore defense all together, it just means we need to probably consider any and all metrics that are based on a solid methodology and temper how much we believe any of them in either isolation or in the aggregate.So, here’s how the Yankee defenders look based on a weighted average of the last five seasons using Chris Dial’s Zone Rating system(ZR), Fangraph’s Ultimate Zone Rating(UZR), John Dewan’s Defensive Runs Saved(DRS) and Sean Smith’s TotalZone. While the data is available to go back to 2002 in all of these metrics, player fielding ability changes enough that I don’t think there’s much use in going back further than that.
| Player | Pos | Def |
| Derek Jeter | SS | -9 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 3 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | 5 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | -3 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | -2 |
| Jorge Posada | C | -4 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | 4 |
| Lance Berkman | DH | 0 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 16 |
| Total | 10 |
These are the full season equivalents of how many runs each player would project to save compared to an average defender. As a team they’re a bit better than average, with the OF being the strong point. I think Cano’s probably better than his projection right now, but I also think Jeter may be worse, but overall defense isn’t a weakness, which is kind of nice after years of it being one.
Last year, the same basic analysis had the Yankees at an estimated 28.6 runs scored over a five game series. With the pitching staff that was projected they were equivalent to about a 107 win team. This year’s team looks more like a 26.7 run team. While a two run difference may not seem like a big deal, pro-rated over a full season it’s around a 60 run difference.This year’s team projects a bit worse offensively, and a hair better defensively, but I think it’s fair to say this year’s position players are not as good as last year’s were.
Of course, we do also have to consider the pitching staff, so that’ll be the next post.
Friday, August 6, 2010
The Implications of this Four Game Series with Boston
Today begins what seems like it could be the Yankees’ most important series of the season so far. A four game series at home against the Red Sox, which has the potential to make a major impact on both teams’ chances for making the postseason.
At this point, using my Monte Carlo simulator and playing out the rest of the season 10,000 times, I get the following final win totals for the big three in the AL East.
Yankees: 100.4
Tampa Bay: 99.9
Boston: 90.1
Here are the probabilities for winning the AL East.
Yankees: 49.8%
Tampa Bay: 46.1%
Boston: 4.1%
Expanding that to look at the probability of making the postseason including the wild card:
Yankees: 89.9%
Tampa Bay: 89.6%
Boston: 15.9%
So, there are five scenarios we have to consider:
A Boston sweep
Final Projected Win Total
Yankees: 98.5
Tampa Bay: 99.9
Boston: 92.2
Odds of winning AL East
Yankees: 39.0%
Tampa Bay: 55.9%
Boston: 5.0%
Odds of making the postseason
Yankees: 81.7%
Tampa Bay: 87.9%
Boston: 24.8%
A Boston sweep over the Yankees would make it about 10% more likely that Tampa Bay will win the East, and would lower the Yankees’ odds of making the postseason by about 9%.
Boston winning three of four
Final Projected Win Total
Yankees: 98.7
Tampa Bay: 99.9
Boston: 91.8
Odds of winning AL East
Yankees: 39.8%
Tampa Bay: 54.6%
Boston: 5.5%
Odds of making the postseason
Yankees: 82.6%
Tampa Bay: 88.6%
Boston: 23.7%
I’d be very disappointed if the Yankees lost three of these four games.
A series split
Final Projected Win Total
Yankees: 99.7
Tampa Bay: 99.8
Boston: 91.0
Odds of winning AL East
Yankees: 47.4%
Tampa Bay: 48.1%
Boston: 4.4%
Odds of making the postseason
Yankees: 87.3%
Tampa Bay: 88.9%
Boston: 19.2%
Gun to my head, with Dustin Moseley AND A.J. Burnett pitching in this series, this is the outcome I’d probably bet on to happen, although I wouldn’t really like it. Should it come to pass, the Yankees chances of winning the East and making the postseason would dip slightly from where they sit right now, and Boston would pretty much be reduced to trying to get the wild card.
Yankees winning three of four
Final Projected Win Total
Yankees: 100.6
Tampa Bay: 100.1
Boston: 90.3
Odds of winning AL East
Yankees: 50.8%
Tampa Bay: 47.1%
Boston: 2.1%
Odds of making the postseason
Yankees: 91.6%
Tampa Bay: 90.1%
Boston: 13.9%
I find this scenario acceptable.
A Yankees sweep
Final Projected Win Total
Yankees: 101.3
Tampa Bay: 100.3
Boston: 89.2
Odds of winning AL East
Yankees: 55.4%
Tampa Bay: 43.5%
Boston: 1.0%
Odds of making the postseason
Yankees: 94.3%
Tampa Bay: 91.8%
Boston: 8.8%
This is my preferred outcome.
Frankly, the clock’s running out on Boston. Even if they take all four of these games, they still have to defy long odds to make the playoffs, and they’ll have to do it while missing the guy who’s probably their single most valuable player for the rest of the season. Also, in this series they are missing Dustin Pedroia, who’s a very good player in his own right, even if I can’t stand looking at him.
How much have injuries hurt Boston’s lineup? Here’s how what looked like their primary lineup entering the season would project going forward.
| Ord | Player | Pos | PA | OBP | wOBA | Outs | BR | BRAA |
| 1 | Jacoby Ellsbury | LF | 5.0 | .338 | .344 | 3.3 | 0.61 | 0.05 |
| 2 | Dustin Pedroia | 2B | 5.0 | .366 | .371 | 3.2 | 0.73 | 0.17 |
| 3 | Victor Martinez | C | 4.8 | .364 | .366 | 3.1 | 0.68 | 0.14 |
| 4 | Kevin Youkilis | 1B | 4.0 | .394 | .398 | 2.4 | 0.68 | 0.23 |
| 5 | David Ortiz | DH | 4.0 | .368 | .381 | 2.5 | 0.62 | 0.17 |
| 6 | Adrian Beltre | 3B | 4.0 | .332 | .353 | 2.7 | 0.52 | 0.07 |
| 7 | J.D. Drew | 3B | 4.0 | .370 | .366 | 2.5 | 0.57 | 0.12 |
| 8 | Mike Cameron | CF | 4.0 | .329 | .334 | 2.7 | 0.46 | 0.01 |
| 9 | Marco Scutaro | SS | 4.0 | .343 | .329 | 2.6 | 0.44 | -0.01 |
| Total | 38.8 | .356 | .360 | 25.0 | 5.30 | 0.96 |
Compare that to the lineup they ran out against Cleveland yesterday.
| Ord | Player | Pos | PA | OBP | wOBA | Outs | BR | BRAA |
| 1 | Jacoby Ellsbury | CF | 5.0 | .338 | .344 | 3.3 | 0.61 | 0.05 |
| 2 | Marco Scutaro | SS | 4.9 | .343 | .329 | 3.2 | 0.54 | -0.01 |
| 3 | David Ortiz | DH | 4.0 | .368 | .381 | 2.5 | 0.62 | 0.17 |
| 4 | Victor Martinez | C | 4.0 | .364 | .366 | 2.5 | 0.57 | 0.12 |
| 5 | J.D. Drew | RF | 4.0 | .370 | .366 | 2.5 | 0.57 | 0.12 |
| 6 | Adrian Beltre | 3B | 4.0 | .332 | .353 | 2.7 | 0.52 | 0.07 |
| 7 | Mike Lowell | 1B | 4.0 | .330 | .338 | 2.7 | 0.47 | 0.02 |
| 8 | Ryan Kalish | LF | 4.0 | .316 | .313 | 2.7 | 0.38 | -0.07 |
| 9 | Bill Hall | 2B | 4.0 | .297 | .311 | 2.8 | 0.38 | -0.07 |
| Total | 37.9 | .340 | .344 | 25.0 | 4.64 | 0.40 |
The Yankees really should win three out of four here.
So really, this series isn’t all that important, although it would be fun for schadenfreude purposes to watch the Yankees bury Boston’s playoff hopes decisively by taking three or four of these games.
Monday, May 17, 2010
Yankees.com: In short set, Hughes, CC pack quite a punch
Phil Hughes and CC Sabathia have the nods for New York in a two-game series set to open on Monday, and while Sabathia’s $161 million contract and big-game resume have earned him trusted stature, Hughes has impressed almost everyone after winning the fifth-starter’s job coming out of camp.
“I can’t really tell you exactly why it’s been going so well, but I’m just trying to throw strikes and attack the strike zone,” Hughes said. “I know we have a good offense, so I just have to do my job and I know they’ll score runs.”
Hughes comes into the Boston series wielding a sparkling 5-0 record and a 1.38 ERA. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, he has become the first Yankees pitcher with five wins and a sub-1.50 ERA through six starts since 1958, when “Bullet” Bob Turley went 6-0 with an 0.83 ERA on his way to a Cy Young Award.
It sucks that last night’s game was canceled after the bottom of the seventh inning. What’s even worse is having to play the next two games against the best starting pitching and defensive team in the majors.
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Finishing Off The Road Trip(Baltimore Edition)
It started in Oakland the moved on to Anaheim and now the Yankee’s road trip finishes up with a three game set against the struggling Baltimore Orioles.
The pitching matchups for the series are:
Tuesday, April 27
Phil Hughes vs. Kevin Millwood
Wednesday, April 28
CC Sabathia vs. Jeremy Guthrie
Thursday, April 29
A.J. Burnett vs. Brian Matusz
Coming into 2010, the Orioles projected to be on an upswing. In fact, one projection system had them pegged for 79 wins. On average, they were projected to win about 74 games.
However, by starting the season 3-16, they now look like they’d end the season at about 65 wins even if they play to their pre-season projections for the rest of the year.
Offense has been a problem for Baltimore, if you look at how they rank in the AL through yesterday’s games.
| Rank | team | lg | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | GDP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR |
| 1 | Yankees | AL | 699 | 159 | 31 | 7 | 22 | 96 | 90 | 87 | 111 | 10 | 14 | 19 | 5 | .265 | .366 | .450 | .359 | 101.0 |
| 2 | Tigers | AL | 799 | 195 | 54 | 3 | 14 | 96 | 86 | 92 | 136 | 8 | 18 | 6 | 5 | .280 | .369 | .426 | .354 | 109.1 |
| 3 | Twins | AL | 762 | 176 | 38 | 4 | 20 | 101 | 95 | 96 | 106 | 4 | 23 | 11 | 1 | .270 | .362 | .433 | .350 | 105.4 |
| 4 | Royals | AL | 737 | 198 | 35 | 3 | 20 | 88 | 82 | 50 | 108 | 5 | 19 | 18 | 5 | .293 | .343 | .442 | .342 | 99.0 |
| 5 | Red Sox | AL | 786 | 185 | 46 | 1 | 24 | 95 | 91 | 71 | 138 | 6 | 20 | 8 | 3 | .264 | .333 | .434 | .335 | 101.6 |
| 6 | Rays | AL | 737 | 168 | 43 | 4 | 20 | 113 | 112 | 80 | 151 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 10 | .259 | .342 | .431 | .339 | 96.6 |
| 7 | Blue Jays | AL | 762 | 158 | 56 | 3 | 28 | 93 | 90 | 67 | 175 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 1 | .232 | .304 | .447 | .322 | 98.2 |
| 8 | Angels | AL | 775 | 185 | 44 | 0 | 21 | 87 | 84 | 62 | 141 | 9 | 20 | 17 | 6 | .265 | .330 | .418 | .328 | 96.7 |
| 9 | Rangers | AL | 705 | 155 | 29 | 4 | 14 | 85 | 78 | 64 | 145 | 8 | 13 | 20 | 4 | .248 | .322 | .374 | .310 | 78.6 |
| 10 | Athletics | AL | 739 | 166 | 35 | 3 | 12 | 92 | 90 | 68 | 126 | 6 | 18 | 12 | 2 | .253 | .325 | .370 | .310 | 81.4 |
| 11 | White Sox | AL | 693 | 137 | 24 | 2 | 26 | 74 | 67 | 63 | 96 | 10 | 23 | 21 | 7 | .222 | .303 | .393 | .306 | 76.7 |
| 12 | Orioles | AL | 723 | 162 | 35 | 3 | 17 | 62 | 59 | 50 | 130 | 8 | 19 | 5 | 4 | .244 | .304 | .383 | .303 | 75.5 |
| 13 | Mariners | AL | 725 | 154 | 33 | 4 | 9 | 73 | 70 | 68 | 133 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 6 | .238 | .312 | .344 | .295 | 71.5 |
| 14 | Indians | AL | 697 | 137 | 30 | 2 | 12 | 62 | 59 | 72 | 142 | 7 | 20 | 9 | 5 | .223 | .310 | .337 | .293 | 66.4 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
A team OBP of .304 is generally not conducive to scoring runs, although the Orioles have actually scored fewer runs than you’d expect given their context-neutral linear weights batting runs. This is probably mostly due to them hitting .183/.270/.294 with runners in scoring position.
The Orioles have played 19 games this year, and have used 18 different lineups. With Brian Roberts out with a back injury, here’s what is probably their most likely current lineup and how they compare to the Yankees.
| Player | Pos | PA | Outs | BR | OBP | Player | Pos | PA | Outs | BR | OBP |
| Derek Jeter | SS | 5 | 3.1 | 0.69 | .372 | Lou Montanez | LF | 5 | 3.4 | 0.58 | .320 |
| Nick Johnson | DH | 5 | 3.0 | 0.72 | .405 | Adam Jones | CF | 5 | 3.3 | 0.69 | .336 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | 5 | 3.1 | 0.84 | .381 | Nick Markakis | RF | 5 | 3.1 | 0.75 | .371 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 5 | 3.1 | 0.87 | .387 | Miguel Tejada | 3B | 5 | 3.3 | 0.62 | .332 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 5 | 3.3 | 0.70 | .338 | Matt Wieters | C | 5 | 3.0 | 0.65 | .358 |
| Jorge Posada | C | 5 | 3.2 | 0.70 | .355 | Luke Scott | DH | 4 | 2.6 | 0.56 | .339 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | 5 | 3.0 | 0.65 | .341 | Ty Wigginton | 2B | 4 | 2.7 | 0.52 | .329 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 4 | 2.6 | 0.56 | .360 | Garrett Atkins | 1B | 4 | 2.7 | 0.49 | .332 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 4 | 2.6 | 0.47 | .341 | Cesar Izturis | SS | 4 | 2.8 | 0.36 | .306 |
| Total | 43 | 27.0 | 6.20 | .365 | Total | 41 | 27.0 | 5.22 | .337 |
Although they’ve only scored about 3.2 runs a game so far this season, the Orioles lineup is more like a 5.2 runs a game lineup that’s going through a rough stretch.
PA: # of PA in a single game
Outs: Outs made at the plate, equals PA times (1 minus OBP)
BR: Linear weights batting runs for listed PA
OBP:projected OBP
Oriole pitching hasn’t been very good either.
| Rnk | team | lg | Role | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR |
| 4 | Yankees | AL | SP | 18 | 18 | 112.7 | 92 | 47 | 45 | 8 | 45 | 0 | 6 | 95 | 3.75 | 3.59 | 3.79 | 25.8 |
| 12 | Orioles | AL | SP | 19 | 19 | 110.0 | 123 | 70 | 58 | 11 | 35 | 4 | 5 | 84 | 5.73 | 4.75 | 4.06 | 1.1 |
| 9 | Yankees | AL | RP | 42 | 0 | 42.3 | 40 | 20 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 4.25 | 4.04 | 4.62 | 3.0 |
| 10 | Orioles | AL | RP | 55 | 0 | 53.7 | 55 | 28 | 28 | 7 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 48 | 4.70 | 4.70 | 4.62 | 1.1 |
| 5 | Yankees | AL | Total | 60 | 18 | 155.0 | 132 | 67 | 64 | 14 | 58 | 0 | 9 | 128 | 3.89 | 3.72 | 4.02 | 28.8 |
| 12 | Orioles | AL | Total | 74 | 19 | 163.7 | 178 | 98 | 86 | 18 | 61 | 9 | 6 | 132 | 5.39 | 4.73 | 4.24 | 2.2 |
Their bullpen hasn’t been that much worse than the Yankees’, although they save all their sucking for blowing leads against Boston. Their rotation has a pretty good FIP, but they’ve allowed a lot more runs than their peripherals say they should have. They’ve also allowed 12 unearned runs, compared to the Yankees whio’ve allowed three.
Defensively, the Orioles projected around average going into the year, but so far this year they’ve been around four runs worse than average.
| Pos | Player | RS | RS/150 | Player | RS | RS/150 |
| C | Jorge Posada | -0.03 | -5 | Matt Wieters | 0.00 | 0 |
| 1B | Mark Teixeira | 0.02 | 3 | Garrett Atkins | -0.01 | -1 |
| 2B | Robinson Cano | 0.00 | -1 | Ty Wigginton | -0.02 | -3 |
| 3B | Alex Rodriguez | -0.03 | -5 | Miguel Tejada | 0.00 | 0 |
| SS | Derek Jeter | -0.03 | -4 | Cesar Izturis | 0.04 | 6 |
| LF | Brett Gardner | 0.02 | 3 | Lou Montanez | 0.00 | 0 |
| CF | Curtis Granderson | 0.04 | 5 | Adam Jones | 0.02 | 3 |
| RF | Nick Swisher | 0.00 | 0 | Nick Markakis | -0.01 | -1 |
| Total | -0.01 | -2 | 0.01 | 2 |
RS: Projected runs saved compared to average defensively per game, using an average of projected zone rating and UZR
RS/150: RS pro-rated to 150 games
As bad as the Orioles have looked to this point, we really can’t expect them to be this bad going forward. Let’s just hope the correction comes AFTER this series.
So here are the inputs to figure out the win probablity of each game.
Yankees
Offense: 6.20 runs
Defense: -0.01 runs
Game 1 pitching: 4.1 runs
Game 2 pitching: 3.7 runs
Game 3 pitching: 4.3 runs
Orioles
Offense: 5.20 runs
Defense: +0.01 runs
Game 1 pitching: 5.1 runs
Game 2 pitching: 5.1 runs
Game 3 pitching: 4.9 runs
Yankee Win Probabilities
Game 1: 65.8%
Game 2: 69.6%
Game 3: 61.9%
After losing two of three games to the Angels, the Yankees are now on pace to win 97.5 games, which puts them behind the Rays who are on pace to win 98.8. Because of that, a sweep would be nice, but the most likely outcome is the Yankees taking two of three.
I’ve always felt that Baltimore plays better against the Yankees than they do against Boston, but to see if that’s actually true, here are some splits going back to 2005.
| 2005-2009 Orioles vs. | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| Boston Red Sox | 3411 | 3064 | 370 | 795 | 169 | 9 | 77 | 352 | 52 | 16 | 280 | 571 | .259 | .323 | .396 | .719 |
| New York Yankees | 3543 | 3168 | 477 | 888 | 160 | 15 | 108 | 459 | 67 | 28 | 284 | 548 | .280 | .342 | .443 | .785 |
| 2005-2009 Orioles vs. | W | L | RA | ERA | FIP | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO |
| Boston Red Sox | 25 | 65 | 6.32 | 5.84 | 5.38 | 90 | 779 | 914 | 547 | 506 | 101 | 448 | 37 | 535 |
| New York Yankees | 35 | 56 | 6.04 | 5.67 | 5.53 | 91 | 797 | 894 | 535 | 502 | 136 | 371 | 44 | 577 |
Well, that’s pretty f’ing annoying, isn’t it?
Friday, April 23, 2010
What Should We Expect Out of The Rest of This West Coast Trip(Los Angeles of Anaheim Edition)?
After winning the first two of a three game set with Oakland and with their best pitcher going in the last game, the Yankees had a chance to sweep and pick up another game on their expectations but unfortunately, it didn’t work out. However, by taking those two of three they were able to maintain the pace that has them currently looking like they’ll win about 100 games this season. Now it’s on to Orange County, California to take on the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
The pitching matchups for that series are:
Friday, April 23
A.J. Burnett vs. Ervin Santana
Saturday, April 24
Andy Pettitte vs. Joel Pineiro
Sunday, April 23
Javier Vazquez vs. Scott Kazmir
After starting the season 2-6, California won six of their next seven games, sweeping the one-time juggernaut Blue Jays and then taking the first two games of a four game series with Detroit to get to 8-7. A blown save by Brian Fuentes in his triumphant return from the DL and then a loss to Justin Verlander in their last two games now has them at an overall record of 8-9. They’ve scored 67 runs and allowed 83 so far, which gives them a Pythagorean record of 7-10. They’re currently two games out of first place in the AL West.
| team | lg | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | GDP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAR |
| Yankees | AL | 551 | 127 | 25 | 6 | 17 | 79 | 73 | 75 | 93 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 5 | .272 | .379 | .460 | .369 | 83.0 | 35.8 |
| Twins | AL | 587 | 135 | 24 | 3 | 16 | 80 | 76 | 76 | 84 | 3 | 18 | 8 | 1 | .270 | .365 | .426 | .349 | 80.1 | 29.8 |
| Royals | AL | 574 | 157 | 25 | 1 | 17 | 71 | 66 | 37 | 86 | 3 | 15 | 17 | 4 | .296 | .343 | .443 | .343 | 77.8 | 28.6 |
| Tigers | AL | 596 | 142 | 34 | 3 | 10 | 67 | 59 | 68 | 101 | 8 | 15 | 5 | 4 | .274 | .366 | .408 | .347 | 77.6 | 26.6 |
| Red Sox | AL | 588 | 133 | 37 | 1 | 20 | 65 | 63 | 51 | 109 | 5 | 14 | 5 | 3 | .252 | .321 | .440 | .330 | 74.8 | 24.4 |
| Blue Jays | AL | 604 | 121 | 43 | 1 | 23 | 72 | 69 | 55 | 135 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 1 | .225 | .300 | .438 | .317 | 75.6 | 23.9 |
| Rays | AL | 574 | 129 | 31 | 4 | 17 | 83 | 82 | 54 | 122 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 6 | .251 | .322 | .427 | .326 | 72.2 | 23.1 |
| Angels | AL | 589 | 135 | 32 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 61 | 45 | 108 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 4 | .251 | .312 | .395 | .311 | 66.7 | 16.2 |
| Rangers | AL | 517 | 109 | 20 | 4 | 11 | 59 | 54 | 44 | 104 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 1 | .237 | .308 | .370 | .300 | 56.2 | 12.0 |
| Athletics | AL | 593 | 128 | 29 | 1 | 9 | 66 | 64 | 53 | 110 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 2 | .243 | .315 | .354 | .300 | 61.4 | 10.7 |
| White Sox | AL | 551 | 106 | 18 | 2 | 18 | 57 | 51 | 53 | 83 | 8 | 18 | 14 | 6 | .217 | .303 | .373 | .300 | 57.2 | 10.1 |
| Mariners | AL | 581 | 128 | 26 | 2 | 6 | 60 | 57 | 57 | 105 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 6 | .250 | .325 | .343 | .302 | 58.9 | 9.2 |
| Orioles | AL | 590 | 122 | 27 | 3 | 13 | 46 | 44 | 39 | 105 | 7 | 16 | 3 | 3 | .225 | .285 | .358 | .284 | 54.0 | 3.5 |
| Indians | AL | 510 | 97 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 46 | 43 | 49 | 105 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 3 | .215 | .300 | .334 | .287 | 47.0 | 3.3 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAA: BR above average (not position-adjusted)
BRAR: BR above replacement level (sum of the individual players’ position-adjusted BR above replacement level )
Last year, the Angels hit .285/.350/.441 as a team en route to scoring 883 runs, the second most runs in the league behind the WORLD CHAMPION Yankees. This year as a team so far they’ve hit a less impressive .252/.316/ .396. Their team wOBA of .311 is 8th in the league.
Since they lost key players Chone Figgins and John Lackey, the aggregate projections on Anaheim were not too good, generally seeing them no better than most of the other teams in the AL West with a 78-84 record on average. So far, they haven’t shown much to dispel those projections.
Here’s how their current primary lineup compares to the Yankees as far as their offensive projections.
| Player | Pos | PA | Outs | BR | OBP | Player | Pos | PA | Outs | BR | OBP |
| Derek Jeter | SS | 5 | 3.1 | 0.69 | .372 | Erick Aybar | SS | 5 | 3.4 | 0.57 | .329 |
| Nick Johnson | 1B | 5 | 3.0 | 0.72 | .405 | Bobby Abreu | RF | 5 | 3.2 | 0.69 | .368 |
| Mark Teixeira | DH | 5 | 3.1 | 0.84 | .381 | Torii Hunter | CF | 5 | 3.3 | 0.71 | .340 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 5 | 3.1 | 0.87 | .387 | Hideki Matsui | DH | 5 | 3.2 | 0.69 | .356 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 5 | 3.3 | 0.70 | .338 | Kendry Morales | 1B | 5 | 3.2 | 0.70 | .338 |
| Jorge Posada | C | 5 | 3.2 | 0.70 | .355 | Juan Rivera | LF | 4 | 2.7 | 0.51 | .317 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | 5 | 3.0 | 0.66 | .341 | Howie Kendrick | 2B | 4 | 2.7 | 0.52 | .336 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 4 | 2.6 | 0.56 | .360 | Mike Napoli | C | 4 | 2.6 | 0.60 | .355 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 4 | 2.6 | 0.47 | .341 | Brandon Wood | 3B | 4 | 2.8 | 0.46 | .297 |
| Total | 43 | 27.0 | 6.22 | .365 | Total | 41 | 27.0 | 5.45 | .338 |
PA: # of PA in a single game
Outs: Outs made at the plate, equals PA times (1 minus OBP)
BR: Linear weights batting runs for listed PA
OBP:projected OBP
And here’s how they compare defensively, again using projections.
| Pos | Player | RS | RS/150 | Player | RS | RS/150 |
| C | Jorge Posada | -0.03 | -5 | Mike Napoli | -0.03 | -5 |
| 1B | Nick Johnson | 0.00 | 0 | Kendry Morales | 0.03 | 5 |
| 2B | Robinson Cano | 0.00 | -1 | Howie Kendrick | 0.03 | 5 |
| 3B | Alex Rodriguez | -0.03 | -5 | Brandon Wood | 0.02 | 2 |
| SS | Derek Jeter | -0.03 | -4 | Erick Aybar | 0.04 | 5 |
| LF | Brett Gardner | 0.02 | 3 | Juan Rivera | 0.05 | 8 |
| CF | Curtis Granderson | 0.04 | 5 | Torii Hunter | -0.01 | -2 |
| RF | Nick Swisher | 0.00 | 0 | Bobby Abreu | -0.08 | -11 |
| Total | -0.03 | -5 | 0.05 | 7 |
RS: Projected runs saved compared to average defensively per game, using an average of projected zone rating and UZR
RS/150: RS pro-rated to 150 games
OVerall they project to have good defenders at most positions, although overall this season they’ve been about two runs below average in both zone rating and UZR>
Califas’s bigger problem has been the pitching staff.
| Rnk | team | lg | Role | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR |
| 4 | Yankees | AL | SP | 11 | 11 | 66.0 | 57 | 27 | 26 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 3 | 56 | 3.68 | 3.55 | 3.61 | 13.1 |
| 12 | Angels | AL | SP | 12 | 12 | 71.7 | 70 | 43 | 39 | 16 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 54 | 5.40 | 4.90 | 5.52 | 0.5 |
| 9 | Yankees | AL | RP | 28 | 0 | 29.0 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 4.66 | 4.34 | 4.34 | 1.7 |
| 13 | Angels | AL | RP | 33 | 0 | 34.3 | 36 | 25 | 22 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 6.55 | 5.77 | 5.33 | -5.3 |
| 7 | Yankees | AL | Total | 39 | 11 | 95.0 | 87 | 42 | 40 | 8 | 34 | 0 | 4 | 79 | 3.98 | 3.79 | 3.83 | 14.7 |
| 13 | Angels | AL | Total | 45 | 12 | 106.0 | 106 | 68 | 61 | 20 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 81 | 5.77 | 5.18 | 5.45 | -4.8 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement. For starters this is calculated as 1.2 times league average starter RA minus starter RA divided by nine times IP. For relievers it’s calculated as 1.2 times league average reliever RA minus reliever RA divided by nine times IP
Rnk: AL rank in RSAR
They’ve had problems in both their rotation and their bullpen.
So what should we expect in this series given the matchups? Using the same methodology used in this post, here are the inputs.
Yankees
Offense: 6.22 runs
Defense: -0.01 runs
Game 1 pitching: 4.3 runs
Game 2 pitching: 4.5 runs
Game 3 pitching: 3.9 runs
Game 3 pitching: 9.5 runs
Los Angeles Angels
Offense: 5.45 runs
Defense: +0.05 runs
Game 1 pitching: 4.8 runs
Game 2 pitching: 4.7 runs
Game 3 pitching: 4.6 runs
Yankee Win Probabilities
Game 1: 58.1%
Game 2: 55.7%
Game 3: 60.3%
Game 3: -100.0%
So adding it up, the Yankees should be expected to go 1.7-1.3 0.1-2.9.
So expect a sweep by the Angels.
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