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Player

 Current Projected
Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King


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Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Yankees Make a Bunch of Moves, Some of Which Don’t Make Sense

Sometimes no activity is better than bad activity.

Yankees.com: Yanks add catcher Stewart, option Cervelli

TAMPA, Fla.—The Yankees completed a deal on Wednesday to address their organizational catching depth, acquiring veteran Chris Stewart from the Giants in exchange for right-hander George Kontos.

Because Stewart is out of Minor League options, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said that the 30-year-old right-handed hitter will be on the Opening Day roster as the backup catcher, with a stunned Francisco Cervelli being optioned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Kontos was behind a lot pitchers on the Yankees’ depth chart so I can see why he’d be expendable.  I just don’t see how adding a backup catcher who’s worse than the backup catcher that they already had makes the team better.

CAIRO has Cervelli projected to hit .264/.332/.373 with a wOBA of .315. It projects Stewart to hit .233/.311/.343 with a wOBA of .295.  Over 250 PA Cervelli would project to be worth about 27 runs and Stewart would project to be worth 23.  I suppose the defensive difference between the two could make them effectively equivalent, but it still strikes me as a move that accomplishes nothing and cost the team some depth.

MLB Trade Rumors: Yankees Sign Ramon Ortiz

The Yankees signed right-hander Ramon Ortiz, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets. It’s a minor league deal, Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger tweets. The Giants recently released the 39-year-old Praver/Shapiro client.

Whatever.  Shouldn’t have any significance.

Lohud: As deadline passes, Yankees roster is finalized

David Phelps named long reliever

I’d be more annoyed about having Phelps rotting in the bullpen if I thought it was a long-term thing, but it shouldn’t be.  At some point Andy Pettitte or Michael Pineda should take that roster spot and Phelps can return to starting in AAA.

Clay Rapada named second lefty

It’s official.

Chris Stewart named backup catcher

See above.

Justin Maxwell designated for assignment

Maxwell had a pretty good spring, but I don’t think he had much use on this team. 

Bill Hall given his release

I figured Hall was a longshot to make the team, and Eduardo Nunez’s hot hitting cemented that. 

--Posted at 5:55 pm by SG / 13 Comments | - (0)


Tuesday, November 22, 2011

CAIRO 2012 v0.2

Here’s the latest version of the 2012 CAIRO projections, which can be downloaded here: cairo_2012_v0.2.xls.

What’s changed?

- Added more minor leaguers
- Added defensive projections for catchers and added Totalzone and Zone Rating projections for the other positions
- Added W-L for the pitchers, based on their current team and that team’s runs scored in 2011.  This will change as teams’ offensive projections change, so keep that in mind.
- Took the Marcels and changed the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.

So, what does CAIRO 2012 v0.2 think about how good the Yankees are right now? 

Lineup Player Pos PA avg/obp/slg wOBA Outs BR BRAR Def WAR
1 Derek Jeter SS 550 .286/.345/.384 .317 360 64 20 -6 1.3
2 Curtis Granderson CF 600 .263/.351/.502 .350 389 91 38 0 3.8
3 Robinson Cano 2B 625 .303/.352/.504 .352 405 93 39 0 3.9
4 Alex Rodriguez 3B 450 .273/.363/.474 .351 286 66 27 0 2.7
5 Mark Teixeira 1B 625 .263/.359/.493 .352 401 93 26 4 3.0
6 Nick Swisher RF 600 .259/.356/.455 .341 386 83 22 4 2.6
7 Jesus Montero DH 500 .267/.322/.470 .326 339 66 9 0 0.9
8 Russell Martin C 500 .253/.347/.383 .319 326 58 22 1 2.3
9 Brett Gardner LF 500 .262/.347/.371 .315 326 61 10 22 3.2
Starters 4950 .271/.350/.452 .337 3220 675 212 25 23.7
Bench Player Pos PA avg/obp/slg wOBA Outs BR BRAR Def WAR
Eduardo Nunez IF 350 .262/.315/.392 .299 240 40 10 -5 0.5
Chris Dickerson OF 250 .243/.321/.369 .298 170 27 3 0 0.3
Ramiro Pena IF 152 .240/.290/.340 .272 108 13 0 0 0.0
Francisco Cervelli C 150 .264/.328/.373 .303 101 16 5 -3 0.5
Colin Curtis OF 75 .244/.312/.391 .299 52 8 1 0 0.1
Brandon Laird IF 75 .247/.292/.407 .291 53 8 2 0 0.2
Corban Joseph 2B 75 .237/.304/.356 .284 52 7 1 0 0.1
Zoilo Almonte IF 75 .227/.282/.379 .277 54 7 1 0 0.1
Justin Maxwell OF 75 .220/.315/.397 .303 51 9 1 0 0.1
Bench 1277 .248/.311/.378 .294 880 135 24 -5 1.9
Team Total 6227 .266/.342/.436 .328 4100 810 236 17 25.6

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs

The Yankees are not likely to add a position player who will significantly improve these projections, so I think the critical number here is 450.  If they can get more than 450 PA out of Alex Rodriguez they’ll project a bit better.  They can also probably shore up the bench by adding an outfielder who projects better than Chris Dickerson, or who can at least be platooned with Dickerson.  That could be accomplished by bringing back Andruw Jones or signing Cody Ross perhaps.  Ross would project to hit .261/.328/.444 as a Yankee, and is capable of playing all three OF spots.  Plus he’s a clutch postseason monster.  Until he isn’t.

We do know the Yankees are going to try and improve their pitching.

Role Player IP H R HR BB K RA ERA FIP WAR
SP1 CC Sabathia 220 199 87 18 62 195 3.58 3.25 3.23 5.5
SP2 Ivan Nova 200 197 109 22 80 124 4.91 4.48 4.52 2.1
SP3 Phil Hughes 175 169 94 23 60 136 4.86 4.72 4.26 1.9
SP4 A.J. Burnett 175 172 102 24 73 151 5.22 4.88 4.52 1.2
SP5 Hector Noesi 100 112 65 16 33 68 5.83 5.44 4.80 0.0
SP6 Adam Warren 50 55 32 6 19 29 5.71 5.28 4.72 0.1
SP7 David Phelps 50 57 33 7 17 29 5.88 5.44 4.88 0.0
SP8 D. J. Mitchell 25 28 17 3 13 14 6.29 5.81 5.26 -0.1
SP9 Manny Banuelos 25 27 18 4 14 17 6.52 6.01 5.43 -0.2
SP10 Dellin Betances 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.80 6.29 5.75 0.0
Starters 1020 1018 557 124 370 763 4.92 4.57 4.29 10.5
Role Player IP H R HR BB K RA ERA FIP WAR
CL Mariano Rivera 60 44 16 4 11 55 2.36 2.21 2.71 1.9
SU David Robertson 75 58 24 4 38 95 2.88 2.70 2.84 2.0
SU Rafael Soriano 60 46 25 6 21 57 3.78 3.57 3.64 1.0
MR Cory Wade 60 56 28 8 16 42 4.19 3.86 4.31 0.7
MR Joba Chamberlain 50 47 25 5 19 47 4.43 4.04 3.72 0.5
MR Boone Logan 50 49 24 5 20 48 4.36 3.82 3.71 0.5
MR Mike O’Connor 25 26 15 3 9 18 5.32 4.94 4.37 0.0
MR Kevin Whelan 25 25 17 3 18 20 6.16 5.70 5.30 -0.2
LR George Kontos 15 16 11 3 7 10 6.51 6.03 5.64 -0.2
Relievers 420 366 184 43 158 392 3.95 3.64 3.69 6.2
Total 1440 1384 742 167 528 1154 4.64 4.30 4.12 16.6

FIP: Fielding-independent pitching

Basically, the Yankees can add a win for every WAR they add to the rotation, since their rotation projects as replacement level after A.J. Burnett.  That doesn’t mean none of the kids are better than their projections and would do the job in 2012, it just means they shouldn’t plan for that as what’s going to happen.  The bullpen is fine, although they could probably benefit from adding a lefty reliever.  An intriguing name that I’ve seen mentioned here and on Fangraphs is Dontrelle Willis.  I’ll do a detailed post about him later.

Here’s what the overall picture looks like.

RS 810
Def 17
RA 742
wpct .553
p162 90

So we’re looking at around a 90 win team right now.  I think 95 wins is the sweet spot for projecting as the favorite in the AL East.  Adding C.J. Wilson probably gets them there.  Adding Yu Darvish might.  Other than that it’s tough to see a single move that would accomplish it.

--Posted at 8:01 am by SG / 62 Comments | - (0)


Wednesday, October 26, 2011

CAIRO 2012 v0.1

I’m heading on vacation for about three weeks, and will probably not be online at all, so I’m releasing my 2012 CAIRO v0.1 now, even though they still need a bit of work.  If you have any players you want projected that aren’t in here or see anything that looks off let me know in this thread and I’ll check it when I get back.  In the meantime Jonathan will keep you covered on the major happenings in Yankee-land.  I hope to return with the news that the Yankees have re-signed CC and won the posting for Yu Darvish, but we’ll see what happens.

Here are some of the key Yankees’ projections.

Last First Age Pos PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO avg obp slg wOBA BR WAR
Cano Robinson 30 2B 676 620 97 188 42 4 25 100 5 3 42 84 .303 .352 .504 .352 95 4.1
Granderson Curtis 31 CF 644 560 103 147 24 7 32 86 16 6 73 142 .263 .351 .502 .350 92 4.0
Teixeira Mark 32 1B 692 594 98 156 34 1 33 109 3 1 81 113 .263 .359 .493 .352 98 2.7
Rodriguez Alex 37 3B 459 398 65 109 21 1 19 78 6 2 53 82 .273 .363 .474 .351 63 2.6
Montero Jesus 23 C 380 348 42 93 19 1 17 49 1 1 27 69 .267 .322 .470 .326 48 2.2
Martin Russell 29 C 511 443 60 112 19 0 13 54 9 3 59 81 .253 .347 .383 .319 56 2.2
Swisher Nick 32 RF 626 533 84 138 31 1 24 82 2 2 80 129 .259 .356 .455 .341 81 2.2
Jeter Derek 38 SS 581 519 82 149 22 1 8 56 16 5 46 83 .286 .345 .384 .317 64 2.1
Gardner Brett 29 LF 484 418 74 109 16 6 6 38 35 8 53 82 .262 .347 .371 .315 56 1.0
Romine Austin 24 C 346 321 37 78 15 1 8 37 3 2 22 62 .242 .294 .365 .282 31 0.8
Maxwell Justin 29 CF 267 233 33 51 11 1 9 26 10 3 31 79 .220 .315 .397 .303 29 0.8
Laird Brandon 25 3B 392 364 42 90 18 1 13 50 2 1 22 72 .247 .292 .407 .291 39 0.8
Nunez Eduardo 25 3B 281 256 34 67 14 1 5 28 13 4 20 35 .262 .315 .392 .299 30 0.7
Jones Andruw 35 RF 315 271 38 61 13 1 14 41 4 1 37 76 .224 .320 .431 .313 36 0.7
Cervelli Francisco 26 C 185 164 20 43 7 1 3 22 2 1 15 32 .264 .328 .373 .303 18 0.6
Posada Jorge 41 DH 420 368 44 94 20 1 16 55 2 1 46 87 .255 .340 .442 .329 51 0.6
Molina Gustavo 30 C 131 121 12 29 6 0 3 14 1 0 7 25 .240 .285 .376 .278 12 0.3
Bernier Doug 32 SS 346 310 34 71 15 2 4 29 5 2 28 76 .227 .291 .324 .267 27 0.2
Pena Ramiro 27 SS 201 183 23 44 7 1 3 18 4 1 13 35 .240 .290 .340 .272 17 0.2
Curtis Colin 27 LF 231 209 26 51 11 1 6 26 3 1 19 44 .244 .312 .391 .299 24 0.2
Dickerson Chris 30 LF 188 165 23 40 8 2 3 15 7 2 19 46 .243 .321 .369 .298 19 0.2
Chavez Eric 35 3B 149 136 15 33 7 0 3 17 1 0 11 31 .243 .298 .364 .282 14 0.1
Golson Greg 27 CF 216 198 23 47 7 2 4 17 6 2 13 51 .235 .285 .355 .273 19 0.1
Russo Kevin 28 2B 384 350 41 83 15 2 5 30 7 3 27 73 .236 .295 .329 .272 31 0.0

Last First Age Role G GS IP H HR BB IBB SO ERA FIP RAR WAR
Sabathia CC 32 SP 33 33 227 218 19 64 4 201 3.25 3.23 64 6.4
Nova Ivan 25 SP 30 29 168 176 19 67 2 104 4.48 4.52 23 2.3
Rivera Mariano 43 RP 65 0 65 50 4 12 2 59 2.21 2.71 23 2.3
Burnett A.J. 36 SP 32 32 190 198 26 79 2 164 4.88 4.52 19 1.9
Colon Bartolo 39 SP 23 22 134 145 18 35 3 103 4.16 4.07 18 1.8
Robertson David 27 RP 63 0 62 50 4 31 5 78 2.70 2.84 18 1.8
Garcia Freddy 37 SP 18 17 102 112 12 30 3 64 4.28 4.28 18 1.8
Hughes Phil 26 SP 22 16 95 97 12 32 1 74 4.72 4.26 13 1.3
Soriano Rafael 33 RP 46 0 45 37 5 16 2 43 3.57 3.64 9 0.9
Chamberlain Joba 27 RP 47 5 69 68 7 26 1 64 4.04 3.72 8 0.8
Warren Adam 25 SP 28 28 147 173 18 57 0 85 5.28 4.72 7 0.7
Wade Cory 29 RP 37 0 43 43 6 11 1 30 3.86 4.31 6 0.6
Feliciano Pedro 36 RP 64 0 48 52 4 20 4 40 4.09 3.83 6 0.6
Logan Boone 28 RP 56 0 43 45 4 17 3 41 3.82 3.71 6 0.6
Ayala Luis 34 RP 42 0 46 48 5 17 2 31 3.99 4.40 5 0.5
Phelps David 26 SP 28 27 152 185 23 50 0 88 5.44 4.88 4 0.4
Prior Mark 32 SP 13 10 47 52 6 17 1 33 4.91 4.44 4 0.4
Valdes Raul 35 RP 30 3 47 51 6 16 1 40 4.72 4.08 3 0.3
Marte Damaso 37 RP 43 0 36 32 4 16 2 30 4.68 4.36 3 0.3
Farnham Jeffrey 25 RP 35 0 37 36 4 19 2 30 4.53 4.51 3 0.3
Flannery Ryan 27 RP 58 0 70 79 7 26 1 42 4.91 4.43 2 0.2
Mitre Sergio 31 RP 31 2 51 52 6 17 1 28 4.55 4.58 1 0.1
Laffey Aaron 27 RP 30 5 54 65 6 24 1 29 4.85 4.77 1 0.1
Norton Tim 29 RP 39 0 45 47 7 18 1 40 4.98 4.71 1 0.1
Noesi Hector 25 RP 31 10 79 94 12 26 2 53 5.44 4.80 -3 -0.3
Whelan Kevin 28 RP 36 0 39 41 5 28 0 32 5.70 5.30 -3 -0.3
Mitchell D. J. 25 SP 32 30 171 205 22 86 0 92 5.81 5.26 -3 -0.3
Schmidt Josh 30 RP 60 1 75 81 9 46 1 57 5.48 5.06 -3 -0.3
Venditte Pat 27 RP 61 0 82 94 12 35 1 58 5.55 4.96 -4 -0.4
Isabel George 23 RP 41 0 42 45 7 29 1 33 6.03 5.80 -5 -0.5
Reyes Yobanny 24 RP 45 0 48 53 7 32 1 35 5.93 5.60 -5 -0.5
DeLuca Evan 21 SP 19 19 92 105 14 53 1 62 6.07 5.48 -5 -0.5
Proctor Scott 36 RP 34 0 36 42 7 21 2 28 6.38 5.92 -5 -0.5
Banuelos Manny 21 SP 26 26 126 147 19 72 1 88 6.01 5.43 -5 -0.5
Betances Dellin 24 SP 16 16 73 82 12 47 0 55 6.29 5.75 -5 -0.5
Stoneburner Graham 25 SP 22 21 111 137 19 45 0 64 6.10 5.48 -6 -0.6
Kontos George 27 RP 30 5 56 65 11 27 0 39 6.03 5.64 -6 -0.6

WAR for position players does NOT include defense yet.

You can download the full spreadsheet here.  I still need to add catcher defense and zone rating/total zone to the other fielders, and playing times are likely to be somewhat off.  I need to double-check my MLEs since I usually find a mistake or two so don’t get too hung up on the minor leaguers’ projections just yet.

If I was to build a preliminary depth chart for the 2012 Yankees right now using the players currently under contract, it’d look something like this.

Player Pos PA BR Player Role IP R
Jeter, Derek SS 580 64 Sabathia, CC SP1 220 87
Granderson, Curtis CF 640 91 Nova, Ivan SP2 200 109
Cano, Robinson 2B 670 95 Hughes, Phil SP3 175 94
Rodriguez, Alex 3B 459 63 Burnett, A.J. SP4 185 107
Teixeira, Mark 1B 675 95 Noesi, Hector SP5 140 91
Swisher, Nick RF 625 81 Betances, Dellin SP6 50 38
Montero, Jesus DH 550 69 Banuelos, Manny SP7 50 36
Martin, Russell C 500 55 Brackman, Andrew SP8 0 0
Gardner, Brett LF 550 63 Rivera, Mariano CL 60 16
Nunez, Eduardo IF 340 36 Robertson, David SU 80 26
Cervelli, Francisco C 250 25 Soriano, Rafael SU 65 27
Pena, Ramiro IF 50 4 Logan, Boone MR 60 29
Dickerson, Chris OF 300 31 Wade, Cory MR 70 33
Golson, Greg OF 50 4 Chamberlain, Joba MR 60 30
Laird, Brandon IF 50 5 Laffey, Aaron LR 25 15
Russo, Kevin UT 25 2 Warren, Adam LR 0 0
Romine, Austin C 0 0 Phelps, David LR 0 0
Total 6314 784 Total 1440 737

That’s about an 86 win team, before considering defense.  If we assume the 2012 Yankees would be about the same as the 2011 Yankees defensively (around +20) then you’re closer to an 88 win team.  It’s not impossible to think some of the young pitchers will be better than CAIRO projects, but the offense looks like it could use a bit more oomph, particularly if we assume we’re only going to get about 450 PA of Alex Rodriguez.  They probably need someone who can play 3B and outhit/outglove Eduardo Nunez for at least 40 games. 

As far as the pitching staff, the Yankees probably should at least consider bringing Freddy Garcia and/or Bartolo Colon back.  Garcia projects better than everyone but CC in the rotation, so I’d like to see the Yankees at least offer him arbitration.  If he goes elsewhere, they should get a supplemental first round pick.  If he can’t find another team he comes back on a one-year deal, which would be great.  150 innings of Garcia instead of Noesi as a starter makes the Yankees about two wins better.

So the Yankees have some work to do this offseason, IMO.

--Posted at 6:07 pm by SG / 32 Comments | - (0)


Friday, September 9, 2011

TGS NY: Yanks call up five; Betances next?

The 25-year-old Brackman, the Yankees’ first-round pick (30th overall) in the 2007 draft who was signed to a four-year, $4.55 million contract, may well be pitching for his future with the club.

“He has an option in his contract so we have to make a decision on whether we’re going to pick it up or not,’’ said Cashman. “He had an awful year as a starter. He’s much different out of the pen. Whether it’s good enough, I don’t know. We’ll take a look at him out of the bullpen and see.’’

This is a couple of days old, but this is the first time I’ve seen that quote from Ol’ Objective Pipe Smoker.  I’d hope a team that’s pissing away $12M per year for a replacement level reliever wouldn’t be penny-wise and pound-foolish again like they were with Alfredo Aceves.  I have no idea if Brackman’s ever going to be a useful major league pitcher, but it would enrage me to no end if the Yankees decide to not pick up his option to save a few bucks.

As far as the headline, it sounds like the Yankees will call up Dellin Betances soon, which is great news.  He can help rest the beleaguered bullpen along with other callups like Brackman, George Kontos and Raul Valdes.  The Yankees will be going from Anaheim to Seattle to Toronto over the next 10 days and the more people they have to carry suitcases the better.

--Posted at 7:14 am by SG / 25 Comments | - (0)


Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Citizen’s Voice: Mitchell brilliant as Yankees down Buffalo in 2011 finale

D.J. Mitchell had just worked eight dominant innings. Jorge Vazquez drove in three runs and hit as long a home run as he hit in his record-setting season. And 2011 ended on a clean, crisp, 5-1 win over Buffalo.

In that clubhouse, one disappointed days ago that it couldn’t secure the franchise’s unprecedented sixth straight playoff berth, there was a sense of finality to it all.
...
As he was giving his postgame interview, Mitchell’s eyes lunched toward the television. The slugger who helped spark the Yankees offense all season, catcher Jesus Montero, had just hit his second home run of his big league career.

The [Scranton Wilkes/Barre]Yankees players milling around the clubhouse flocked to any television they could find to watch their former teammate trot around the bases.
...
As his old teammates watched Montero take his curtain call, Miley had the last big job of the season. He called outfielder Greg Golson, infielder Ramiro Pena and pitchers Hector Noesi and George Kontos into his office to deliver the news they had been hoping for or, in one case, waiting for an entire lifetime.

They were going to the big leagues.

“I can’t even describe this feeling. It’s surreal,” said Kontos, his cell phone in hand and tears welling in his eyes as he pondered who to call next to talk about his first big-league call-up. “It’s everything I worked for, my whole lifetime. To think that I’m going up, it’s unreal.”

More reinforcements on the way. 

And in case you’re curious, here’s an update to the AL postseason odds after yesterday’s action.

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Yankees 100 62 892 651 72.5% 27.2% 99.7%
Red Sox 97 65 864 692 27.4% 71.5% 98.9%
Rays 88 74 692 609 0.1% 1.3% 1.4%
Blue Jays 80 82 756 743 - - -
Orioles 64 98 688 864 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Tigers 90 72 759 726 97.3% - 97.3%
White Sox 82 80 654 683 1.8% - 1.8%
Indians 81 81 683 707 0.8% - 0.8%
Twins 70 92 629 801 - - -
Royals 67 95 715 781 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Rangers 91 71 827 700 88.1% - 88.1%
Angels 86 76 665 638 11.9% 0.0% 11.9%
Athletics 76 86 651 675 - - -
Mariners 68 94 559 675 - - -

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

--Posted at 9:31 am by SG / 54 Comments | - (0)


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