Replacement Level Yankees Weblog

THT: More sliders, more success for Logan
(13 Comments - 5/17/2012 4:19:58 pm)

THT: 10th anniversary: Giambi’s walk-off slam
(11 Comments - 5/17/2012 3:49:43 pm)

Yankees.com: Onslaught helps Drabek drop Yankees
(23 Comments - 5/17/2012 1:06:25 pm)

Yankees (20-16) @ Blue Jays (19-18), Wednesday, May 16, 2012, 7:07pm **Game Chatter**
(45 Comments - 5/16/2012 10:52:22 pm)

Yahoo: Yankees-Blue Jays Preview
(17 Comments - 5/16/2012 6:58:05 pm)

Beyond the Box Score: A PITCHf/x Look At Eight Rookie Starters
(13 Comments - 5/16/2012 11:21:29 am)

Yankees.com: Without much help, CC handed first defeat
(14 Comments - 5/16/2012 10:22:31 am)

Yankees (20-15) @ Orioles (22-14), Tuesday, May 15, 2012, 7:05 pm
(39 Comments - 5/15/2012 10:01:33 pm)

Yankees.com: Yanks place new closer Robertson on DL
(2 Comments - 5/15/2012 6:51:35 pm)

Player A vs. Player B
(34 Comments - 5/15/2012 5:10:18 pm)


Player	Current	Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

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Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Yankees.com: LIVE: Jorge Posada news conference

The link goes to MLB.com’s video broadcast of Posada’s press conference, currently in progress.

--Posted at 11:17 am by SG / 40 Comments | - (0)

Monday, January 9, 2012

Did Jorge Make It?

Back on May 4, I asked if Jorge Posada was the worst base runner ever?. At the time, using Baseball Prospectus‘s data going back to 1954, the answer was no. He trailed Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, Mike Piazza and Ted Simmons.

The data now goes back to 1950, and for some reason the numbers have changed for some of the players on the list. So now, if we ask if Jorge Posada was the worst baserunner ever, the answer is…

No. But he ends his career as second, to Frank Thomas.

Frank Thomas: -74.7
Jorge Posada: -52.8
Bengie Molina: -47.5
Harmon Killebrew: -47.5
Edgar Martinez: -46.8
Willie McCovey: -44.6
Eddie Murray: -43.0
Paul Konerko: -43.0
Joe Torre: -41.8
Jim Thome: -40.9

Values are in Baseball Prospectus’s BRR, which is described as:

Base Running Runs. Measures the number of runs contributed by a player’s advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table. BRR is calculated as the sum of various baserunning components: Ground Advancement Runs (EqGAR), Stolen Base Runs (EqSBR), Air Advancement Runs (EqAAR), Hit Advancement Runs (EqHAR) and Other Advancement Runs (EqOAR).

Congratulations to Jorge.

--Posted at 5:53 pm by SG / 27 Comments | - (0)

THT: Jaffe: Jorge Posada career highlights

In honor of the recently retired catcher, let’s take a look at his career, his best and worst moments, the greatest and most significant games he played in, terrific performances he viewed, and some weird oddities he was on hand for.

One thing I should note: Normally I try to include as many playoff games as I can in these career highlight bits, but he played in 125 postseason affairs. Some notable October moments might get left out to keep this from going too long.

Chris Jaffe has a nice list of some of some of Jorge Posada’s notable moments.

--Posted at 10:10 am by SG / 19 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, January 8, 2012

NJ.com: Carig: Report: Longtime Yankees catcher Jorge Posada set to retire

Jorge Posada intends to retire, according to a report this afternoon on WFAN radio, which cited an anonymous source in saying that an announcement will be made within the next two weeks.

I still think Posada could help some teams in a limited role, but apparently that just wasn’t in the cards. I can’t help but feel that this decision was made more by no one offering him a deal he felt worth pursuing than anything else, but hopefully Posada will be at peace with the decision.

He was a rare Yankee player who managed to remain underrated, often playing in the shadow of Ivan Rodriguez even when he was the more valuable offensive player. It was tough seeing a diminished version of him struggling last season, but he finished the year pretty well and hit well in the postseason (something he generally didn’t do).

My top four Posada memories:

1) His game-tying pop-up double off Pedro Martinez in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS.
2) His walkoff HR against B.J. Ryan on May 5, 2000.
3) His walkoff HR against Akinori Otsuka in the crazy 14-13 win over Texas on May 16, 2006
4) That time he made a bad decision on the bases

Much like Bernie, I don’t think Posada will end up in the Hall of Fame, but I’ll always remember him as one of the best players I had the pleasure of watching. Aside from that whole baseruining thing…

--Posted at 10:36 am by SG / 36 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, November 10, 2011

TGS NY: Jorge Posada: Return won’t happen

“It’s not gonna happen,” Posada said Wednesday night at a Manhattan function for The Jorge Posada Foundation. “I don’t think there is even a percentage of a chance that I can come back.”

The free agent says he’s not bitter with the organization he has played for his entire career. He said five or six teams have shown interest in his services.

The more I think about it, the less I’d mind if Posada tried to play another year and got a job somewhere. It won’t take away what he did in pinstripes, and it allows him a chance to go out on his terms. I think he’s still got something left, and if circumstances allowed it, it’d be great to see him get one more game at the Stadium, even if it came in a visitor’s uniform. Perhaps there will be real fans in attendance instead of the stuffed suits that attended ALDS Game 5 and ignored the fact that it was likely Posada’s last game in pinstripes.

On an unrelated note, scary news out of Venezuela, where Nationals’ catcher Wilson Ramos has been kidnapped. There have been a few kidnapping related incidents involving MLB players’ families including Henry Blanco’s brother, Yorvit Torrealba’s son and Victor Zambrano’s mother. Let’s hope for a happy ending here.

--Posted at 3:26 am by SG / 74 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

CAIRO 2012 v0.1

I’m heading on vacation for about three weeks, and will probably not be online at all, so I’m releasing my 2012 CAIRO v0.1 now, even though they still need a bit of work. If you have any players you want projected that aren’t in here or see anything that looks off let me know in this thread and I’ll check it when I get back. In the meantime Jonathan will keep you covered on the major happenings in Yankee-land. I hope to return with the news that the Yankees have re-signed CC and won the posting for Yu Darvish, but we’ll see what happens.

Here are some of the key Yankees’ projections.

Last	First	Age	Pos	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	WAR
Cano	Robinson	30	2B	676	620	97	188	42	4	25	100	5	3	42	84	.303	.352	.504	.352	95	4.1
Granderson	Curtis	31	CF	644	560	103	147	24	7	32	86	16	6	73	142	.263	.351	.502	.350	92	4.0
Teixeira	Mark	32	1B	692	594	98	156	34	1	33	109	3	1	81	113	.263	.359	.493	.352	98	2.7
Rodriguez	Alex	37	3B	459	398	65	109	21	1	19	78	6	2	53	82	.273	.363	.474	.351	63	2.6
Montero	Jesus	23	C	380	348	42	93	19	1	17	49	1	1	27	69	.267	.322	.470	.326	48	2.2
Martin	Russell	29	C	511	443	60	112	19	0	13	54	9	3	59	81	.253	.347	.383	.319	56	2.2
Swisher	Nick	32	RF	626	533	84	138	31	1	24	82	2	2	80	129	.259	.356	.455	.341	81	2.2
Jeter	Derek	38	SS	581	519	82	149	22	1	8	56	16	5	46	83	.286	.345	.384	.317	64	2.1
Gardner	Brett	29	LF	484	418	74	109	16	6	6	38	35	8	53	82	.262	.347	.371	.315	56	1.0
Romine	Austin	24	C	346	321	37	78	15	1	8	37	3	2	22	62	.242	.294	.365	.282	31	0.8
Maxwell	Justin	29	CF	267	233	33	51	11	1	9	26	10	3	31	79	.220	.315	.397	.303	29	0.8
Laird	Brandon	25	3B	392	364	42	90	18	1	13	50	2	1	22	72	.247	.292	.407	.291	39	0.8
Nunez	Eduardo	25	3B	281	256	34	67	14	1	5	28	13	4	20	35	.262	.315	.392	.299	30	0.7
Jones	Andruw	35	RF	315	271	38	61	13	1	14	41	4	1	37	76	.224	.320	.431	.313	36	0.7
Cervelli	Francisco	26	C	185	164	20	43	7	1	3	22	2	1	15	32	.264	.328	.373	.303	18	0.6
Posada	Jorge	41	DH	420	368	44	94	20	1	16	55	2	1	46	87	.255	.340	.442	.329	51	0.6
Molina	Gustavo	30	C	131	121	12	29	6	0	3	14	1	0	7	25	.240	.285	.376	.278	12	0.3
Bernier	Doug	32	SS	346	310	34	71	15	2	4	29	5	2	28	76	.227	.291	.324	.267	27	0.2
Pena	Ramiro	27	SS	201	183	23	44	7	1	3	18	4	1	13	35	.240	.290	.340	.272	17	0.2
Curtis	Colin	27	LF	231	209	26	51	11	1	6	26	3	1	19	44	.244	.312	.391	.299	24	0.2
Dickerson	Chris	30	LF	188	165	23	40	8	2	3	15	7	2	19	46	.243	.321	.369	.298	19	0.2
Chavez	Eric	35	3B	149	136	15	33	7	0	3	17	1	0	11	31	.243	.298	.364	.282	14	0.1
Golson	Greg	27	CF	216	198	23	47	7	2	4	17	6	2	13	51	.235	.285	.355	.273	19	0.1
Russo	Kevin	28	2B	384	350	41	83	15	2	5	30	7	3	27	73	.236	.295	.329	.272	31	0.0

Last	First	Age	Role	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	IBB	SO	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
Sabathia	CC	32	SP	33	33	227	218	19	64	4	201	3.25	3.23	64	6.4
Nova	Ivan	25	SP	30	29	168	176	19	67	2	104	4.48	4.52	23	2.3
Rivera	Mariano	43	RP	65	0	65	50	4	12	2	59	2.21	2.71	23	2.3
Burnett	A.J.	36	SP	32	32	190	198	26	79	2	164	4.88	4.52	19	1.9
Colon	Bartolo	39	SP	23	22	134	145	18	35	3	103	4.16	4.07	18	1.8
Robertson	David	27	RP	63	0	62	50	4	31	5	78	2.70	2.84	18	1.8
Garcia	Freddy	37	SP	18	17	102	112	12	30	3	64	4.28	4.28	18	1.8
Hughes	Phil	26	SP	22	16	95	97	12	32	1	74	4.72	4.26	13	1.3
Soriano	Rafael	33	RP	46	0	45	37	5	16	2	43	3.57	3.64	9	0.9
Chamberlain	Joba	27	RP	47	5	69	68	7	26	1	64	4.04	3.72	8	0.8
Warren	Adam	25	SP	28	28	147	173	18	57	0	85	5.28	4.72	7	0.7
Wade	Cory	29	RP	37	0	43	43	6	11	1	30	3.86	4.31	6	0.6
Feliciano	Pedro	36	RP	64	0	48	52	4	20	4	40	4.09	3.83	6	0.6
Logan	Boone	28	RP	56	0	43	45	4	17	3	41	3.82	3.71	6	0.6
Ayala	Luis	34	RP	42	0	46	48	5	17	2	31	3.99	4.40	5	0.5
Phelps	David	26	SP	28	27	152	185	23	50	0	88	5.44	4.88	4	0.4
Prior	Mark	32	SP	13	10	47	52	6	17	1	33	4.91	4.44	4	0.4
Valdes	Raul	35	RP	30	3	47	51	6	16	1	40	4.72	4.08	3	0.3
Marte	Damaso	37	RP	43	0	36	32	4	16	2	30	4.68	4.36	3	0.3
Farnham	Jeffrey	25	RP	35	0	37	36	4	19	2	30	4.53	4.51	3	0.3
Flannery	Ryan	27	RP	58	0	70	79	7	26	1	42	4.91	4.43	2	0.2
Mitre	Sergio	31	RP	31	2	51	52	6	17	1	28	4.55	4.58	1	0.1
Laffey	Aaron	27	RP	30	5	54	65	6	24	1	29	4.85	4.77	1	0.1
Norton	Tim	29	RP	39	0	45	47	7	18	1	40	4.98	4.71	1	0.1
Noesi	Hector	25	RP	31	10	79	94	12	26	2	53	5.44	4.80	-3	-0.3
Whelan	Kevin	28	RP	36	0	39	41	5	28	0	32	5.70	5.30	-3	-0.3
Mitchell	D. J.	25	SP	32	30	171	205	22	86	0	92	5.81	5.26	-3	-0.3
Schmidt	Josh	30	RP	60	1	75	81	9	46	1	57	5.48	5.06	-3	-0.3
Venditte	Pat	27	RP	61	0	82	94	12	35	1	58	5.55	4.96	-4	-0.4
Isabel	George	23	RP	41	0	42	45	7	29	1	33	6.03	5.80	-5	-0.5
Reyes	Yobanny	24	RP	45	0	48	53	7	32	1	35	5.93	5.60	-5	-0.5
DeLuca	Evan	21	SP	19	19	92	105	14	53	1	62	6.07	5.48	-5	-0.5
Proctor	Scott	36	RP	34	0	36	42	7	21	2	28	6.38	5.92	-5	-0.5
Banuelos	Manny	21	SP	26	26	126	147	19	72	1	88	6.01	5.43	-5	-0.5
Betances	Dellin	24	SP	16	16	73	82	12	47	0	55	6.29	5.75	-5	-0.5
Stoneburner	Graham	25	SP	22	21	111	137	19	45	0	64	6.10	5.48	-6	-0.6
Kontos	George	27	RP	30	5	56	65	11	27	0	39	6.03	5.64	-6	-0.6

WAR for position players does NOT include defense yet.

You can download the full spreadsheet here. I still need to add catcher defense and zone rating/total zone to the other fielders, and playing times are likely to be somewhat off. I need to double-check my MLEs since I usually find a mistake or two so don’t get too hung up on the minor leaguers’ projections just yet.

If I was to build a preliminary depth chart for the 2012 Yankees right now using the players currently under contract, it’d look something like this.

Player	Pos	PA	BR	Player	Role	IP	R
Jeter, Derek	SS	580	64	Sabathia, CC	SP1	220	87
Granderson, Curtis	CF	640	91	Nova, Ivan	SP2	200	109
Cano, Robinson	2B	670	95	Hughes, Phil	SP3	175	94
Rodriguez, Alex	3B	459	63	Burnett, A.J.	SP4	185	107
Teixeira, Mark	1B	675	95	Noesi, Hector	SP5	140	91
Swisher, Nick	RF	625	81	Betances, Dellin	SP6	50	38
Montero, Jesus	DH	550	69	Banuelos, Manny	SP7	50	36
Martin, Russell	C	500	55	Brackman, Andrew	SP8	0	0
Gardner, Brett	LF	550	63	Rivera, Mariano	CL	60	16
Nunez, Eduardo	IF	340	36	Robertson, David	SU	80	26
Cervelli, Francisco	C	250	25	Soriano, Rafael	SU	65	27
Pena, Ramiro	IF	50	4	Logan, Boone	MR	60	29
Dickerson, Chris	OF	300	31	Wade, Cory	MR	70	33
Golson, Greg	OF	50	4	Chamberlain, Joba	MR	60	30
Laird, Brandon	IF	50	5	Laffey, Aaron	LR	25	15
Russo, Kevin	UT	25	2	Warren, Adam	LR	0	0
Romine, Austin	C	0	0	Phelps, David	LR	0	0
Total		6314	784	Total		1440	737

That’s about an 86 win team, before considering defense. If we assume the 2012 Yankees would be about the same as the 2011 Yankees defensively (around +20) then you’re closer to an 88 win team. It’s not impossible to think some of the young pitchers will be better than CAIRO projects, but the offense looks like it could use a bit more oomph, particularly if we assume we’re only going to get about 450 PA of Alex Rodriguez. They probably need someone who can play 3B and outhit/outglove Eduardo Nunez for at least 40 games.

As far as the pitching staff, the Yankees probably should at least consider bringing Freddy Garcia and/or Bartolo Colon back. Garcia projects better than everyone but CC in the rotation, so I’d like to see the Yankees at least offer him arbitration. If he goes elsewhere, they should get a supplemental first round pick. If he can’t find another team he comes back on a one-year deal, which would be great. 150 innings of Garcia instead of Noesi as a starter makes the Yankees about two wins better.

So the Yankees have some work to do this offseason, IMO.

--Posted at 6:07 pm by SG / 32 Comments | - (0)

Monday, October 24, 2011

BBTF: 2012 ZiPS Projections - New York Yankees

While we wait for me to take the Marcels and change the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better, the first set of 2012 Yankee projections are out. With CHONE now being gobbled up by some MLB team, these are probably the best projections available now, and I know Dan Szymborski puts a ton of work into making it so.

I’ll just show the starters here..

Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Robinson Cano     L    2B   29   .299 .347 .506 156 609  92 182  41   5  25 103  40  76   6   3  121
Mark Teixeira     B    1B   32   .263 .359 .495 147 562  88 148  32   1  32 109  76 112   2   1  122
Curtis Granderson L    CF   31   .256 .346 .495 147 547 104 140  22   8  31  92  71 143  16   7  118
Alex Rodriguez    R    3B   36   .264 .350 .474 108 405  62 107  20   1  21  82  51  89   7   2  115
Jesus Montero     R    C    22   .271 .333 .486 156 576  79 156  37   3  27  93  55 116   0   0  112
Nick Swisher      B    RF   31   .253 .358 .456 142 498  76 126  27   1  24  82  80 129   1   2  113
Andruw Jones      R    LF   35   .234 .335 .455  80 222  31  52  10   0  13  38  32  65   3   1  106
Brett Gardner     L    LF   28   .260 .352 .370 149 462  80 120  17   8   6  39  61  91  43  10   91
Russell Martin    R    C    29   .249 .346 .382 123 422  60 105  17   0  13  58  58  76  10   4   92
Jorge Posada      B    1B   40   .238 .329 .414 105 324  35  77  15   0  14  47  41  80   1   1   94
Eduardo Nunez     R    SS   25   .273 .312 .379 141 480  57 131  23   2   8  48  26  64  21   7   81
Derek Jeter       R    SS   38   .268 .329 .362 129 542  78 145  22   4   7  58  46  84  14   5   82

And some selected pitchers.

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
CC Sabathia       L      31     3.55    17    8   31   31   218.0  211   86   19   63  189   126
Ivan Nova         R      25     4.44    13   10   31   30   178.3  189   88   20   60  111   100
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Bartolo Colon     R      39     4.77     7    6   20   19   111.3  121   59   17   32   78    93
Phil Hughes       R      26     4.84     9    8   25   22   122.7  127   66   18   44   96    92
Freddy Garcia     R      35     4.85     9    8   23   22   128.0  143   69   18   40   75    92
Hector Noesi      R      25     5.24     6    6   32   14   103.0  120   60   14   35   68    85
A.J. Burnett      R      35     5.31     9   10   28   27   159.3  170   94   25   70  128    84
David Phelps      R      25     5.40     6    7   23   22   121.7  148   73   18   39   73    83
Manny Banuelos    L      21     5.45     7    8   25   25   115.7  128   70   15   65   85    82
Dellin Betances   R      24     5.66     5    7   24   24   105.0  111   66   15   72   85    79

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
David Robertson   R      27     3.06     4    2   69    0    64.7   50   22    5   34   87   146
Mariano Rivera    R      42     3.12     3    1   53    0    49.0   44   17    4   10   43   143
Rafael Soriano    R      32     3.14     4    2   67    0    63.0   50   22    6   21   74   142
Joba Chamberlain  R      26     3.88     3    2   46    0    46.3   43   20    5   14   45   115
Boone Logan       L      27     3.91     4    2   62    0    48.3   46   21    5   17   48   114
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Pedro Feliciano   L      35     4.30     2    1   33    0    23.0   24   11    2   10   18   104
Cory Wade         R      29     4.61     4    4   47    0    56.7   62   29    8   13   37    97
Luis Ayala        R      34     4.62     4    3   44    0    50.7   56   26    6   19   32    96
Sergio Mitre      R      31     5.08     1    1   26    2    44.3   49   25    6   17   22    88

Go to the link to see whatever players I didn’t include here.

Projections are inherently limited, so remember to take these for what they are. They are rough estimates of a player’s current talent level. They are not predictions for what a player is going to do in 2012, and they are not playing time predictions either.

--Posted at 11:12 am by SG / 73 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

2011 Postseason Batting Average Leaders through October 4

Minimum of 1 PA

Player	Tm	AVG
Jesus Montero	NYY	1.000
Ryan Theriot	STL	.667
Skip Schumaker	STL	.600
Jimmy Rollins	PHI	.583
Ryan Braun	MIL	.545
Albert Pujols	STL	.538
Brandon Inge	DET	.500
Ben Francisco	PHI	.500
Adron Chambers	STL	.500
Matt Holliday	STL	.500
Zack Greinke	MIL	.500
Ryan Roberts	ARI	.455
Jerry Hairston	MIL	.444
Don Kelly	DET	.429
Willie Bloomquist	ARI	.417
Jorge Posada	NYY	.400
Kelly Shoppach	TBR	.400
Chase Utley	PHI	.400
Craig Gentry	TEX	.400
Ryan Raburn	DET	.400
Brett Gardner	NYY	.385
Paul Goldschmidt	ARI	.375
Raul Ibanez	PHI	.375
Magglio Ordonez	DET	.375
Prince Fielder	MIL	.364
Chris Young	ARI	.364
Mike Napoli	TEX	.357
Desmond Jennings	TBR	.333
Aaron Hill	ARI	.333
Shane Victorino	PHI	.333
David Murphy	TEX	.333
Josh Collmenter	ARI	.333
Robinson Cano	NYY	.294
B.J. Upton	TBR	.286
Rafael Furcal	STL	.286
Hunter Pence	PHI	.273
Jonathan Lucroy	MIL	.273
Adrian Beltre	TEX	.267
Delmon Young	DET	.267
Jhonny Peralta	DET	.267
Josh Hamilton	TEX	.267
Derek Jeter	NYY	.263
Ian Kinsler	TEX	.250
Curtis Granderson	NYY	.250

--Posted at 9:32 am by SG / 100 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Yankee WPA through Game 3 of 2011 ALDS

Win probability added is a stat that tries to estimate how a player has contributed to his team’s chances of winning a game. I don’t think it’s a good statistic for trying to assess value because it is heavily dependent on the contributions of others, but it’s fun to look at if you want a rough idea of which players performances have helped/hurt their teams the most.

Positive means an increase in the probability of winning, negative means a decrease. More positive is more gooder.

If you have anyone in the mainstream media sitting next to you, please send them away. And don’t tell them there’s no Santa Clause.

Player	WPA
Ivan Nova	0.280
Brett Gardner	0.269
Jorge Posada	0.262
Curtis Granderson	0.081
Russell Martin	0.078
David Robertson	0.031
Boone Logan	0.029
Cory Wade	0.024
Mariano Rivera	0.005
Luis Ayala	-0.019
Eric Chavez	-0.043
Alex Rodriguez	-0.060
Robinson Cano	-0.074
Rafael Soriano	-0.097
Andruw Jones	-0.102
Freddy Garcia	-0.122
Mark Teixeira	-0.162
CC Sabathia	-0.237
Nick Swisher	-0.258
Derek Jeter	-0.421

FWIW, here are the ten lowest WPA in the 2011 postseason to this point.

Player	WPA
CC Sabathia	-0.237
Koji Uehara	-0.252
Nick Swisher	-0.258
Daniel Hudson	-0.269
Chris Carpenter	-0.286
C.J. Wilson	-0.334
James Shields	-0.354
Brad Ziegler	-0.375
Derek Jeter	-0.421
Cliff Lee	-0.465
Kyle Lohse	-0.542

Make it 11, so we can get CC on the list. The more to complain about, the better.

If only the Yankees had signed proven postseason pitcher Cliff Lee…

What the hell, ten best too.

Player	WPA
Ryan Howard	0.436
Mike Napoli	0.401
Neftali Feliz	0.388
Yovani Gallardo	0.371
Ivan Nova	0.280
Brett Gardner	0.269
Lance Berkman	0.263
Jorge Posada	0.262
Jason Motte	0.255
Ryan Braun	0.251

--Posted at 12:44 pm by SG / 38 Comments | - (0)

Friday, September 30, 2011

2011 ALDS Preview: Tigers vs. Yankees

The first obstacle in the quest to end the dreaded curse of The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske is the Detroit Tigers.

Seriously, it has been 694 days, 11 hours, 15 minutes, and 45 seconds since the New York Yankees have won a World Series. We have suffered long enough, haven’t we? When will this infernal madness end?

So how big of an obstacle are the Tigers? Let’s take a look.

First, I’ll acknowledge the obvious fact that the Tigers played in and won the AL Central which is probably the weakest division in the AL.

I’ll then say that it doesn’t matter. This is a very good team, and it’s not a stretch to envision them representing the AL in the World Series.

If you read the Rays/Rangers preview you can skip the next paragraph.

I don’t particularly find any series previews that focus on what a team did in the preceding full season of much use. It doesn’t really matter if a team scored 5.2 runs per game and allowed 4.2 runs per game over the preceding six months. Rosters change, injuries happen, players come and go, talent changes, and player and team performance is often subject to fluctuations that are not predictive. What I want to know is how many runs will the team and roster as currently configured score and allow. Because of that, for these previews I’ll be using projections in lieu of 2011 stats. Despite having my own system in CAIRO, I’m going to use the Hardball Times’s Oliver forecasts since I haven’t had the time to re-run CAIRO for this year. Oliver is updated weekly during the season and includes 2011 MLEs for players who saw time in the minors.

The biggest consideration in trying to see how any series may shape up is allocating playing time. So here are depth charts for the two teams, based on the assumption that each team will make 25 outs at the plate over 5 games and that pitchers will combine for 45 innings. Since I didn’t have official postseason rosters while writing parts of these, some of it is guesswork and is subject to change.

Here are the Oliver projections for the Tigers’ postseason position players.

Name	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Jackson, Austin	CF	21	.263/.315/.374	14	2.24	.303	.311	.300
Kelly, Don	3B	21	.268/.312/.413	14	2.34	.314	.286	.317
Young, Delmon	LF	21	.283/.314/.446	14	2.52	.327	.344	.320
Cabrera, Miguel	1B	21	.334/.422/.602	12	4.11	.435	.455	.429
Martinez, Victor	C	21	.312/.365/.480	13	3.08	.367	.372	.364
Peralta, Jhonny	SS	21	.270/.324/.426	14	2.50	.326	.339	.321
Avila, Alex	C	21	.270/.351/.456	14	2.89	.350	.327	.356
Dirks, Andy	RF	21	.265/.311/.415	14	2.45	.315	.294	.318
Santiago, Ramon	2B	21	.276/.319/.394	14	2.30	.307	.304	.308
Starter Total		189	.282/.337/.444	125	24.42	.338	.338	.338
Bench	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Betemit, Wilson	IF	0	.259/.323/.424	0	0.00	.325	.298	.334
Ordonez, Magglio	OF	0	.282/.344/.412	0	0.00	.334	.352	.329
Raburn, Ryan	OF	0	.268/.317/.465	0	0.00	.334	.349	.323
Rhymes, Will	2B	0	.272/.326/.361	0	0.00	.303	.283	.307
Inge, Brandon	3B	0	.230/.304/.384	0	0.00	.303	.328	.294
Worth, Danny	IF	0	.229/.284/.328	0	0.00	.272	.283	.263
Kelly, Don	UT	0	.268/.312/.413	0	0.00	.314	.286	.317
Santos, Omir	C	0	.228/.255/.333	0	0.00	.255	.264	.250
Bench Total
Team Total		189	.282/.337/.444	125	24.42	.338	.338	.338

Outs: Outs at the plate (assumes 25 outs per 9 innings, calculated as (1 - OBP) times PA + GDP per PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
vs. L/R: Projected wOBA splits vs. LHP/RHP using regressed platoon splits

Rather than guess about how the Tigers may allocate playing time, I just gave the expected starting lineup all 125 outs.

The biggest problem here is Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera’s pretty much the best hitter in the AL. In fact, only one player has been a better hitter than him over the last three years, and that’s Albert Pujols. That projected wOBA of .455 vs. LHP is terrifying for Game 1. The Yankees probably don’t have much room for error facing Verlander, so the Cabrera/Sabathia matchup is probably going to be the one to watch. You can see by the OBP of the rest of the team that keeping people like Austin Jackson, Don Kelly and Delmon Young off the bases in front of Cabrera is going to be imperative.

The Tigers overall don’t have much of a projected platoon split, so the Yankees’ lack of left-handed pitching shouldn’t be a big deal.

I don’t think any Tigers fans would disagree that the Yankees’ lineup is better. Their hopes are going to lay on their pitching staff, and that’s not a bad position to be in.

Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Verlander, Justin	SP1	14	4.8	3.11	2.89	3.05
Fister, Doug	SP2	6	2.6	3.94	3.67	3.49
Scherzer, Max	SP3	6	3.1	4.61	4.10	3.98
Porcello, Rick	SP4	5	2.7	4.88	4.51	4.35
Penny, Brad	SP5	0	0.0	5.43	4.85	4.65



Starter Total		31	13.3	3.85	3.54	3.52
Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Valverde, Jose	CL	3	1.3	3.90	3.61	3.72
Benoit, Joaquin	SU	3	1.1	3.25	3.01	3.10
Alburquerque, Al	SU	2	0.9	4.20	3.89	3.71
Coke, Phil	SU	2	1.0	4.40	4.07	3.68
Pauley, David	MR	2	1.1	4.76	4.41	4.44
Perry, Ryan	MR	1	0.5	4.61	4.27	4.12
Schlereth, Daniel	MR	1	0.5	4.85	4.49	4.31
Marte, Luis	LR	0	0.0	5.26	4.87	4.97
Below, Duane	LR	0	0.0	5.49	5.08	5.33
	LR	0	0.0
Reliever Total		14	6.4	4.12	3.81	3.75
Team Total		45	19.7	3.93	3.62	3.59

RA: Runs allowed per 9, calculated as 1.08*ERA
ERA: Earned runs allowed per 9
FIP: Fielding independent pitching

Justin Verlander’s obviously the man here. He’s been the best pitcher in baseball this year and is a worthy MVP candidate. He’s backed up by mid-season acquisition Doug Fister, who’s been sublime for the Tigers. The Tigers are 9-2 in his 11 starts, and he’s pitched 70.1 innings and allowed just 19 runs. He’s faced 273 batters and walked 5 of them. Seriously. He’s probably not quite that good, but he’d project as the second-best starter on the Yankees.

Jim Leyland has said that he will not pitch Verlander on three days rest, so I’m giving Rick Porcello five innings. I don’t know if things would change if the Tigers go down 2-1. If they did that, they could throw Fister in Game 5 and not use Porcello in the rotation at all.

The Tigers’ defense has been about average overall, not much different than the Yankees. So I’m not going to bother with talking about that.

So, how about the Yankees’ projections?

Name	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Jeter, Derek	SS	22	.306/.363/.416	14	2.83	.345	.369	.337
Granderson, Curtis	CF	22	.259/.342/.496	14	3.24	.358	.314	.374
Cano, Robinson	2B	22	.312/.359/.511	14	3.38	.374	.358	.381
Rodriguez, Alex	3B	18	.289/.367/.527	11	2.89	.382	.389	.380
Teixeira, Mark	1B	22	.265/.357/.498	14	3.29	.369	.380	.364
Swisher, Nick	RF	21	.271/.364/.475	13	3.03	.364	.375	.359
Posada, Jorge	DH	16	.259/.345/.448	10	2.12	.347	.347	.347
Martin, Russell	C	21	.252/.345/.380	14	2.39	.326	.344	.320
Gardner, Brett	LF	19	.269/.353/.376	12	2.34	.326	.306	.332
Starter Total		183	.277/.355/.460	118	25.50	.355	.354	.355
Bench	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BR	wOBA	vs. L	vs. R
Montero, Jesus	DH	4	.278/.329/.483	3	0.54	.348	.361	.340
Jones, Andruw	OF	2	.251/.344/.502	1	0.30	.363	.381	.357
Nunez, Eduardo	IF	0	.278/.308/.381	0	0.00	.301	.302	.300
Chavez, Eric	3B	4	.245/.296/.355	3	0.38	.288	.257	.300
Romine, Austin	C	0	.246/.289/.364	0	0.00	.287	.300	.283
Dickerson, Chris	OF	0	.239/.315/.341	0	0.00	.295	.272	.299
Pena, Ramiro	IF	0	.239/.283/.327	0	0.00	.269	.256	.273
Cervelli, Francisco	C	0	.263/.314/.365	0	0.00	.298	.310	.293
Bench Total		10	.260/.319/.435	7	1.22	.327	.323	.327
Team Total		193	.276/.353/.458	125	26.72	.353	.352	.354

I’ve relegated Jesus Montero to pinch-hitting status, since DH vs. LHP is effectively a non-position vs. Detroit. I suppose we may see him pinch-hit for Posada if a one of Phil Coke/Daniel Schlereth is on the mound. Or he could get a start if Posada doesn’t look so good. Statistically, Posada’s projection vs. RHP is better than Montero’s so I suppose it’s the logical approach. I’m also not sanguine on A-Rod playing every inning so I’ve given Chavez four PA, and I’m assuming we may see Andruw Jones pinch-hit for TSBG in a late situation vs. a LHP where an XBH would be of additional benefit.

Oliver thinks the Yankees have the best offense in the postseason, and I’d agree with that. Unfortunately, the Yankees have to pitch too.

Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Sabathia, CC	SP1	14	5.8	3.70	3.43	3.28
Nova, Ivan	SP2	12	6.4	4.77	4.36	4.33
Garcia, Freddy	SP3	5	2.6	4.60	4.36	4.33
Colon, Bartolo	SP4	0	0.0	4.82	4.04	3.97
Burnett, A.J.	SP5	0	0.0	5.21	4.82	4.49
Hughes, Phil	SP6	0	0.0	4.45	4.12	4.17
Betances, Dellin	SP7	0	0.0	5.36	4.96	4.83
Brackman, Andrew	SP8	0	0.0	6.80	6.30	5.88
Starter Total		31	14.7	4.26	3.94	3.86
Name	Role	IP	R	RA	ERA	FIP
Rivera, Mariano	CL	3	1.0	3.03	2.81	2.89
Robertson, David	SU	3	1.2	3.75	3.47	3.05
Soriano, Rafael	SU	2	0.8	3.61	3.34	3.64
Logan, Boone	SU	2	1.0	4.32	4.00	3.77
Wade, Cory	MR	2	1.0	4.38	4.06	4.09
Ayala, Luis	MR	2	1.0	4.50	4.17	3.92
Noesi, Hector	MR	0	0.0	4.59	4.25	4.03
Proctor, Scott	LR	0	0.0	5.78	5.35	5.21
Laffey, Aaron	LR	0	0.0	5.56	5.15	4.59
Kontos, George	LR	0	0.0	5.38	4.98	5.02
Reliever Total		14	6.0	3.86	3.57	3.48
Team Total		45	20.7	4.14	3.82	3.74

The assumption here is CC on three days rest. I’m assuming that Burnett and Hughes won’t pitch even though they’re on the roster, but if they do pitch their innings would probably just replace Ayala or Wade’s and it shouldn’t make a big difference.

The Yankees probably have the worst projected rotation in the postseason. CC’s as good as anyone, but after that there’s some concern about Nova and Garcia. I do think that projection is a little bearish on Nova since we have evidence that his new slider has made a meaningful improvement that wouldn’t be captured in a projection system.

Nova pre-slider: 226 BF, 9.3% BB/BF, 11.5% K/BF, 5.19 RA, 4.29 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 4.92 xFIP
Nova post-slider: 278 BF, 7.5% BB/BF, 15.1% K/BF, 3.52 RA, 3.44 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 4.03 xFIP

The Yankee bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this year, and although the projections think most of them pitched above their head they’re probably still better than Detroit’s from top to bottom. So the Yankees should be able to mitigate their slight disadvantage in the rotation by using the relievers aggressively. I can imagine that any David Robertson/Miguel Cabrera battles are going to be must-see baseball.

These depth charts say this.

Team	Gms	RS	RA	wpct	p162
DET	5	24.4	19.7	.600	97
NYA	5	26.7	20.7	.620	100

If I play the series out 10,000 times in my Monte Carlo simulator I get these odds.

Yankees: 53.9%
Tigers: 46.1%

If the Tigers do decide to use Verlander in Game 4 and Fister in Game 5 they improve to about a .612 wpct/99 win team. Basically, those two teams are equivalent. The Yankees get the slight edge of one extra home game if necessary. In that case the odds look like this.

Yankees: 51.9%
Tigers: 48.1%

--Posted at 10:58 am by SG / 60 Comments | - (0)

Jack Curry’s Projected Postseason 2011 ALDS Yankee Roster

We still don’t have official ALDS rosters, but Jack Curry used the information that’s been released to try and project them. Here’s who Curry sees on the roster.

Position players (14)
Teixeira
Cano
Jeter
Rodriguez
Chavez
Nunez
Gardner
Granderson
Swisher
Jones
Martin
Posada
Montero
Dickerson

Pitchers (11)
Sabathia
Nova
Garcia
Burnett
Rivera
Robertson
Soriano
Logan
Wade
Ayala
Hughes

I like the roster, for the most part. Nunez shouldn’t be playing at all over Cano and Jeter, and if Rodriguez is unable to play they have a better option in Chavez. I’m happy to not see Austin Romine or Raul Valdes on there, as I don’t think either really helps the team that much right now.

--Posted at 9:36 am by SG / 29 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, September 29, 2011

WSJ: The Yankees Have Many Postseason Roster Decisions

Even with the season ending Wednesday, the Yankee postseason roster is still not set—as a number of decisions could come down to whether the Yankees play Texas or Detroit in the first round.

A few things are set in stone: CC Sabathia will start Game 1 on Friday, and Ivan Nova will start the second game on Saturday. Freddy Garcia looks like the most likely option for Game 3 on Monday, but manager Joe Girardi wouldn’t commit. Meanwhile, it seems likely that Bartolo Colon would not make the roster for the first round.

It’s probably much ado about nothing to think about what the best postseason roster might be since the Yankees are going to do whatever they’re going to do. Then again, blogging by nature is much ado about nothing, so why not?

As the excerpt says, we know CC and Nova are going in 1 and 2. We also know that Girardi intends to start CC on short rest in Game 4, if necessary. That would allow Nova to pitch Game 5 on normal rest. So they probably only need one more starter. It sounds like that will be Freddy Garcia.

Catcher is one area where things get interesting. We know Russell Martin is a lock. Francisco Cervelli is out for the postseason. The only true backup catcher in the organization right now (according to their thought process) is Austin Romine. Romine is not a major league caliber offensive player right now, and may never be one. In an ideal series, he’d never play. So I think I’d rather see the Yankees take just Martin, with Jorge Posada and Jesus Montero available in an emergency. Should Martin get hurt, the Yankees would have the option to add Romine to the roster. They would also have the option to add him to the roster in the ALCS if they made it there by some miracle.

The thing with Posada and Montero is that they’re likely to be DH’ing if they’re in the lineup. So if one of them has to switch to catcher while already in the lineup as DH, the Yankees will lose the DH. For that reason I think you need both of them on the roster.

On the infield, the question is what combination of Eric Chavez, Eduardo Nunez and Ramiro Pena the Yankees will use to backup Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira.

For the outfield, I think you’ll see Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher, Brett Gardner, and Andruw Jones. Chris Dickerson’s probably a long-shot.

In my mind, these are the locks.

Starting Pitchers (3)
Sabathia
Nova
Garcia

Relievers (6)
Rivera
Robertson
Soriano
Logan
Wade
Ayala

Catchers (1)
Martin

Infield (4)
Cano
Jeter
Rodriguez
Teixeira

Outfield (4)
Gardner
Granderson
Swisher
Jones

That’s 18 players, which leaves seven spots which can be filled by some of the following players.

Other pitchers
Burnett
Colon
Hughes
Laffey
Noesi
Valdes

Other catchers
Montero
Posada
Romine

Other infielders
Chavez
Laird
Nunez
Pena

Other outfielders
Dickerson
Golson

I think/hope the Yankees will take Posada/Montero in lieu of Romine. I hope that they’re not going to employ a strict platoon at DH, since it basically means Montero will sit on the bench for the entire series with Detroit. I was hoping they could get by with one backup IF, but given A-Rod’s health issues I’d imagine they’ll take both Chavez and Nunez.That would leave them three more spots for pitchers, but I don’t see carrying 12 pitchers in a 5 game series. So that opens up a spot for someone like Dickerson or Pena or Romine I suppose.

--Posted at 9:52 am by SG / 27 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Yankees.com: Posada’s clutch hit delivers AL East title

NEW YORK—The New York Yankees captured their 12th American League East championship in 16 years Wednesday at Yankee Stadium with a 4-2 win over the Tampa Bay Rays. Pinch-hitter Jorge Posada leveled the final blow in the eighth inning, a two-out, bases-loaded single that broke a 2-2 tie and put New York ahead for good.

The win gave the Yankees a sweep of a day-night doubleheader and, combined with Boston’s loss to Baltimore, mathematically eliminated the Red Sox from contention for first place in the division.

It’s obviously been a frustrating season for Posada, who’s been a hugely important part of the Yankees over the last 15 seasons. So in that sense it was cool for Joe Girardi to give him a shot in what is very possibly going to be the last meaningful PA of his Yankee career, and even cooler to see him come through.

If you assumed the two games of this double-header were 50/50 shots and the odds of Baltimore beating Josh Beckett in Fenway were about 25%, the odds of today’s events were about 6.25%.

But they happened, and because of that the Yankees are the champions of the AL East!

A fact that I’m sure is shocking to 45 of 45 ESPN “experts”.

And the 1927 Yankees can rest easy for one more season.

--Posted at 10:08 pm by SG / 39 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Yankees.com: Swisher provides only offense in walk-off loss

It was another one-run loss for the Yankees, who managed just four hits all night and had their three-game winning streak snapped.

“We’ve had three tough ones on this road trip, lost three games by one run,” manager Joe Girardi said. “It’s a tough one, because you figure your offense is usually going to score more than one run.”

Despite the loss, the Yankees maintained a four-game lead in the American League East thanks to Toronto’s 5-4 win over second-place Boston. New York’s magic number is now 11 and the Yankees will enjoy an off-day Thursday before heading to Toronto for a three-game set starting Friday.

Losing a game against a crappy team when your starter gives up 1 run over 7 1/3 innings is somewhat annoying, isn’t it?

I turned off the game when I saw Rafael Soriano warming up to come in, but it doesn’t seem like I missed much. My chief issue with last night was the way Girardi handled the 8th inning on offense. After Andruw Jones was hit by a pitch, Girardi pinch-ran for him with Brett Gardner. Miguel Olivo is a fairly good catcher in terms of stealing bases, but Girardi didn’t even bother trying to let Gardner steal, opting instead to give Seattle a free out by having Russell Martin bunt Gardner to second. I’ll grant that the bunt in and of itself is probably defensible if you look at things like run expectancy and win probability although it’s probably not optimal.

What was not defensible was what happened after the bunt.

Jamey Wright is a RHP who’s bounced around MLB for 16 seasons. He’s been about average for a reliever over the last three years (ERA+ of 104). He has the type of platoon split you’d expect from a RHP in his career, although it’s worth noting he’s been better vs. LHB over the last three season.

Still, there was no reason to let Eduardo Nunez hit after the Martin bunt. You have a fully stocked bench to avoid that from happening. When I saw Nunez coming up my first thought was “WTF?” Then I thought, “well maybe Girardi wants to be cautious with Eric Chavez and rest him.” That thought then melded into, “WTF?” He could pinch-hit for Nunez with Jorge Posada or Chris Dickerson and then use Ramiro Pena for defense if he didn’t want to use Chavez.” The defensive upgrade alone by replacing Nunez with a warm body makes it the smart move. Instead, Nunez, who’s hit .236/.288/.312 since the All Star Break over 172 PA, grounded out on the second pitch of his PA, shocking probably one person on the planet. Maybe two if you count Binder™ as a sentient being, and the Yankees didn’t score.

It gets better though.

In Nunez’s very next PA, Girardi PINCH HIT FOR HIM WITH ERIC CHAVEZ. If you were willing to do it in the 10th inning with two outs and the bases empty, why wouldn’t you have done it in the eighth inning with the go-ahead run on 2B and one out?

Anyway, it was a crappy game and a tough one to lose given the fact that both Tampa Bay and Boston had lost earlier. So I guess in that sense it was a fitting ending to a crappy road trip that saw the Yankees lose 4 of 7 games when they could probably have put away Boston in the AL East for good.

--Posted at 9:32 am by SG / 24 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, September 11, 2011

NJ.com: Carig: Yankees vs. Angels: Jesus Montero may start for catching-short Yankees

Manager Joe Girardi doesn’t expect Cervelli to return on the Yankees’ road trip, perhaps a sign of the severity of the injury.

“He was fine yesterday,” Girardi said. “For whatever reasons, the symptoms came today.”

Meanwhile, the Yankees are so short on catchers that they may call-up prospect Austin Romine to add depth. Starter Russell Martin left last night’s 6-0 loss to the Angels after he took a foul ball off his right hand. Veteran Jorge Posada caught for the first time all season, picking up for Martin in the third inning, but Girardi said he will likely not catch tomorrow.

Instead, rookie Jesus Montero catch in the big leagues for the first time, even though Girardi has said repeatedly that he didn’t intend to start him at catcher. Montero put on his gear just in case he was summoned to replace Martin.

“I don’t know,” said Montero, who has waited for an opportunity to catch. “I haven’t heard any decisions. I don’t know anything yet. I might catch. I might not.”

Since I am done watching the Yankees vs. the Angels, let me know how it goes.

--Posted at 9:25 am by SG / 198 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Yankees.com: Yanks pound A’s with record three slams

NEW YORK—Russell Martin’s sixth-inning grand slam fueled a historic Yankees rout, as the Bombers rallied to post a 22-9 victory over the Athletics on Thursday at Yankee Stadium.

Robinson Cano also belted a fifth-inning grand slam for New York, which avoided a series sweep by overcoming a poor start from Phil Hughes, who served up six runs in just 2 2/3 innings. Curtis Granderson’s eighth-inning slam was the third of the afternoon for the Yankees, who set a Major League record for most slams in a single game.

Expect Boston to his four grand slams in some game this weekend.

Admit it. When the Yankees went down 7-1 in the top of the third, you didn’t think they had a chance, right?

For a brief shining moment, Derek Jeter’s average sat at .300, although when he struck out in his seventh PA of the game he dipped back down to .299.

Watching first baseman Nick Swisher dig out a low throw from second baseman Jorge Posada for the final out of the game (yes, seriously) was fun too.

--Posted at 6:19 pm by SG / 44 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, August 13, 2011

Yankees.com: Motivated Posada fuels Yanks with six RBIs

Pulled from regular designated-hitter duty last week, Posada returned to the lineup in dramatic fashion on Saturday, belting a grand slam and collecting six RBIs as the Yankees rolled to a 9-2 victory over the Rays.

***

Making his first start since tossing a rain-shortened shutout at Chicago, Phil Hughes limited Tampa Bay to two runs and four hits in six innings before leaving with a seven-run lead. Hughes appeared to be on the bubble as the Yankees prepared to whittle their rotation down to five starters, but with the news that Freddy Garcia will miss at least Sunday’s start, Hughes’ rotation spot is safe for the time being.

Hughes looked good. He gave up only 4 hits, and this was the third start in a row that he walked only one batter through 6 innings.

Freddy Garcia may not make this list, but he’s taken a step towards A.J. territory with his recent injury.

UPDATE: Apparently, the Yankees signed Scott Proctor to a minor league deal.

--Posted at 7:36 pm by Jonathan / 16 Comments | - (0)

Monday, August 8, 2011

MLB.com: Light dimming on Posada’s bright career

BOSTON—A proud Yankees career may be coming to a very quiet end, on the bench.

Jorge Posada, who has been a substantial part of five World Series championship teams, was dropped from the Yankees’ starting lineup on Sunday night. It is unclear when, or if, he might return to his primary 2011 role as the club’s designated hitter.

Yankees manager Joe Girardi spoke with Posada on Sunday and told the veteran that he would no longer serve as the regular DH. Girardi said he could not promise when Posada will next start.

I’ve got mixed feelings on this. Posada’s been such an important Yankee for such a long time that it’s rough to see him struggling the way he has almost all season. I had hoped he’d have a strong year at DH freed from the rigors of catching and augment a career that should be Hall of Fame worthy. As bad as he’s looked at times this season, I am still not sure he doesn’t have something left in him.

That’s the fan in me. The realist in me understands that the Yankees have essentially gotten replacement level production out of DH, and that a player on the roster who cannot play any position, is a bad baserunner and hasn’t hit much really should be on the roster. The Yankees are effectively using a 24 man roster, and that’s compounded by having 13 pitchers. So that limits their flexibility by quite a bit.

For now they can probably rotate their starters through DH and/or use a platoon of Andruw Jones and Eric Chavez. While the prospect of calling up Jesus Montero seems intriguing, I don’t think he fits with the current roster. They could demote Francisco Cervelli to make room for him, but I don’t know how comfortable the Yankees would be with DHing their backup catcher on a regular basis. When things will start getting hairy is when Alex Rodriguez returns from the DL. I suppose the easy move at that time would be to option one of their spare pitchers down to the minors. I get the sense the Yankees won’t release Posada even if it’s the best move they can make.

To be honest, I’m fine with that. I don’t want to see Posada released. The Yankees just need to hold serve for three weeks, at which point rosters can expand and they won’t suffer from the lack of options carrying Posada on the roster may cause. They can give him spot duty and give the fans a chance to say goodbye. And who knows? Maybe he’ll surprise us by rebounding a bit and make himself a viable option again for some DH time.

If the Yankees fail to make the postseason at this point it won’t be because of Posada or the opportunity cost of carrying Posada.

--Posted at 9:02 am by SG / 90 Comments | - (0)

Friday, August 5, 2011

The Monkey On Their Backs

By any reasonable viewpoint, the Yankees have had a great year in 2011. They lead MLB in run differential/Pythagorean record, are tied for the top in the best division in baseball and have gotten a lot of good performances from unexpected places. In particular, a pitching staff that was touted as the team’s Achilles’ heel all offseason has been a legitimate strength.

Despite all that, it seems like a lot of us haven’t fully embraced the good things that this team has done, and I think it really just comes down to one thing. This team has gotten its ass handed to it by Boston every time they’ve played this year.

So who to blame? Here are the splits for the Yankees’ hitters vs. Boston and vice versa.

Player	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	HBP	K	SB	CS	BA	OBA	SPct	wOBA	BR
Derek Jeter	44	4	8	1	0	0	3	2	0	2	6	1	1	.200	.273	.225	.238	1.9
Curtis Granderson	41	8	8	1	1	3	7	5	0	1	17	1	1	.229	.341	.571	.383	6.6
Mark Teixeira	38	0	4	0	0	0	3	3	0	1	11	0	0	.121	.211	.121	.171	0.2
Nick Swisher	36	1	6	3	0	0	4	4	0	0	8	0	0	.188	.278	.281	.258	2.7
Robinson Cano	36	3	9	4	0	1	4	2	1	2	6	1	0	.281	.361	.500	.374	5.8
Alex Rodriguez	36	5	6	1	0	2	2	3	0	2	10	1	0	.194	.306	.419	.319	4.4
Brett Gardner	35	4	5	1	1	0	1	5	0	0	5	2	1	.167	.286	.267	.260	2.3
Russell Martin	27	5	5	0	0	3	6	3	0	2	3	0	0	.227	.370	.636	.419	5.1
Jorge Posada	20	2	6	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	3	0	0	.333	.400	.333	.342	2.3
Andruw Jones	11	1	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7	0	0	.182	.182	.455	.259	1.0
Eric Chavez	8	1	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.750	.535	2.2
Francisco Cervelli	7	2	3	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	0	0	.500	.571	.667	.537	1.8
Eduardo Nunez	7	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	.167	.286	.167	.231	0.3
Chris Dickerson	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.240	0.9
Total	347	37	68	15	2	10	35	31	1	10	78	6	3	.223	.314	.384	.311	37.5

Player	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	HBP	K	SB	CS	BA	OBA	SPct	wOBA	BR
Carl Crawford	40	4	5	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	3	0	0	.125	.125	.200	.139	-0.2
David Ortiz	42	7	12	4	0	3	9	4	0	1	5	0	0	.324	.405	.676	.451	8.8
Jacoby Ellsbury	38	7	13	4	0	1	6	1	0	2	3	3	1	.371	.421	.571	.430	7.6
Adrian Gonzalez	44	8	8	1	1	2	11	8	3	1	8	0	0	.235	.386	.500	.382	6.6
Kevin Youkilis	42	8	8	0	0	2	8	8	0	0	13	0	0	.242	.381	.424	.359	5.7
Dustin Pedroia	39	8	15	4	0	1	7	8	2	0	4	2	0	.500	.605	.733	.556	10.9
J.D. Drew	33	4	7	0	0	1	5	6	1	1	8	0	0	.280	.424	.400	.376	4.6
Marco Scutaro	22	4	6	3	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	.300	.364	.450	.357	3.3
Jed Lowrie	21	2	6	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	4	0	0	.316	.333	.421	.322	2.3
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	20	2	6	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	4	0	0	.333	.400	.556	.412	3.6
Jason Varitek	18	4	3	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	4	0	0	.200	.333	.200	.270	1.2
Mike Cameron	13	2	3	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	0	0	.273	.333	.364	.289	1.2
Total	372	60	92	18	2	12	59	44	6	5	58	6	1	.290	.379	.473	.372	55.7

wOBA: weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs.

Mark Teixeira has been abysmal vs. Boston this year with some support from Derek Jeter, Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner.

Here’s a “fun” stat for you. Dustin Pedroia has provided more offense in 39 PA versus the Yankees than Jeter, Teixeira, Swisher, Gardner and Jorge Posada have provided in 173 PA against Boston (10.9 BR to 9.4 BR). Maybe fun is not the right word.

Boston’s outscored the Yankees at close to a 2-1 rate and if you compare the BR to the actual runs there’s not a lot of evidence of good or bad luck in there.

Two other things I found ~~interesting~~ aggravating are the HBP and IBB columns.

Well, maybe looking at the pitching will cheer us up.

Player	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	HBP	RA	ERA	FIP
Bartolo Colon	0	2	10	7	5	3	1	4	9	0	4.35	2.61	3.88
Jeff Marquez	0	0	2	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	4.50	4.50	2.20
Phil Hughes	0	0	2	7	6	6	1	2	0	0	27.00	27.00	12.70
Boone Logan	0	0	5	4	1	1	0	3	4	0	1.93	1.93	3.41
Lance Pendleton	0	0	2	3	3	3	2	2	2	0	16.20	16.20	20.00
Hector Noesi	0	0	6	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	3.00	3.00	5.53
Joba Chamberlain	0	0	4	6	5	5	2	2	4	0	12.27	12.27	9.75
Ivan Nova	0	0	4	7	4	4	0	3	3	1	8.31	8.31	4.58
Luis Ayala	0	0	5	6	0	0	0	2	4	0	0.00	0.00	2.83
Rafael Soriano	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.00	0.00	7.20
Freddy Garcia	0	2	8	11	10	9	3	6	6	1	11.25	10.13	9.20
Mariano Rivera	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.00	0.00	4.20
A.J. Burnett	0	1	6	7	8	7	1	4	3	0	12.71	11.12	6.55
CC Sabathia	0	3	19	24	13	13	1	9	15	3	6.16	6.16	4.20
David Robertson	1	0	4	4	2	1	0	3	4	0	4.15	2.08	3.43
Total	1	8	79	92	60	55	12	44	58	5	6.84	6.27	5.57

Player	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	HBP	RA	ERA	FIP
Dan Wheeler	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	9.00	9.00	1.20
Daniel Bard	0	0	4	1	1	1	0	3	4	1	2.08	2.08	4.12
Jonathan Papelbon	0	0	5	3	2	2	0	1	8	0	3.60	3.60	0.60
Alfredo Aceves	0	0	7	8	4	3	2	4	7	0	4.91	3.68	6.47
Jon Lester	2	0	12	13	7	7	2	5	12	3	5.25	5.25	5.37
Rich Hill	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.00	0.00	-0.80
Matt Albers	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	2	2	0	0.00	0.00	3.70
Clay Buchholz	1	1	11	13	7	6	2	4	9	0	5.91	5.06	5.08
John Lackey	1	0	5	7	6	6	1	2	2	1	10.80	10.80	6.80
Felix Doubront	0	0	1	3	2	2	1	0	1	0	13.50	13.50	11.45
Josh Beckett	3	0	21	10	2	2	1	5	25	4	0.86	0.86	2.72
Tim Wakefield	1	0	7	5	5	5	1	3	4	1	6.14	6.14	5.52
Bobby Jenks	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.00	0.00	7.20
Total	8	1	81	68	37	35	10	31	78	10	4.11	3.89	4.40

FIP: Fielding independent pitching

That didn’t really help.

It would have been nice to have Alex Rodriguez back for this series, although maybe Eric Chavez can stay healthy through Sunday (assuming he’s off tonight with Jon Lester pitching).

Pitching matchups for the weekend are Colon vs. Lester tonight, CC vs. Lackey tomorrow, and Garcia vs. Beckett on Sunday. So the Yankees are probably slight underdogs tonight, favorites tomorrow, and strong underdogs Sunday. Logic says we should be happy if they take one of the three, and that’s the most likely scenario, but after losing 8 of 9 to Boston, including all 6 at home, I won’t be happy with anything less than a sweep.

I suppose I could settle for a 2-1 series win.

Seriously though, barring catastrophe both of these teams will be in the postseason, so I suppose we shouldn’t get that worked up about whatever happens here.

--Posted at 12:10 pm by SG / 30 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, July 24, 2011

The Yankee Analysts: Jesus Montero’s Declining Stock

The three year trend line is headed straight down in OBP, SLG, wOBA and wRC+. As the competition he’s faced has improved, the concerns about plate discipline and pitchers exploiting his aggressiveness have come to pass. Since peaking in High-A in 2009 his results have gone down annually when you look at his advanced numbers. This is not one bad season, its a manifestation of an underlying trend that’s becoming more evident as the sample gets larger. If anything, Jesus has been lucky with the bat this year. His .346 BABIP is higher than it was in AA or last year in AAA, though it has to be noted that 09 was a split season between two levels and it’s very tough to come up with a reliable xBABIP for a player in the minor leagues.

The Yankee Analysts is a great blog, but I found this article to be somewhat sketchy.

First of all, trends aren’t predictive in baseball. Especially if the trend is happening at least partially due to the competition improving.

Second, BABIP is a skill for hitters. You should expect a good minor league hitter to have a high BABIP. It likely means he’s hitting the ball hard.

That being said, the premise of the article is probably accurate. Jesus Montero’s stock has fallen this year. His MLE in AAA last season was around .254/.309/.441 and this year it’s about .245/.296/.352 and we’re no closer to knowing the answer of whether or not he’ll be able to stick at catcher.

Of course, it’d be crazy to think a player of Montero’s age is anywhere close to a finished product, and perhaps he is frustrated by the fact that he was on the verge of breaking camp with the team this spring and didn’t seize the opportunity. It’d also be crazy to assume that because of what’s happened this year we can ignore everything else he’d done prior. But there’s little evidence that he’d be more valuable than either Russell Martin or Jorge Posada right now.

If you want to see Montero in Yankee pinstripes, the fact that his value has dropped probably has a silver lining. If other teams aren’t going to give the Yankees anything valuable enough for them to part with him, maybe the Yankees will be forced to keep him.

--Posted at 9:09 am by SG / 68 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Which Players Have the Most/Least Hidden Value So Far in 2011?

I was goofing around with some of the stats on Fangraphs and elsewhere and thought it might be interesting to see which players’ values were perhaps obscured if you only looked at their batting lines. Here are the top 20, using Fangraphs’ baserunning stats, linear weights for stolen bases/caught stealing and an average of zone rating, DRS and UZR, which I’m labeling as aRS for average runs saved defensively. I think averaging several good defensive metrics tells us more than any single metric, but we should still be cognizant of the error bars inherent in the defensive numbers and what we think they tell us.

Player	Team	SB/CS	aRS	BsR	Total
Elvis Andrus	Rangers	4.6	9.6	5.6	19.8
Brett Gardner	Yankees	2.6	12.8	1.8	17.2
Peter Bourjos	Angels	0.9	10.2	1.8	12.9
Ben Zobrist	Rays	1.4	8.0	3.2	12.6
Carlos Gomez	Brewers	2.9	9.6	0.0	12.5
Ian Kinsler	Rangers	3.4	5.9	2.8	12.1
Cameron Maybin	Padres	2.8	7.4	1.8	12.0
Howie Kendrick	Angels	1.2	8.3	1.9	11.4
Michael Bourn	Astros	5.8	0.0	5.0	10.8
Jacoby Ellsbury	Red Sox	2.4	7.8	0.4	10.6
Troy Tulowitzki	Rockies	0.6	10.4	-0.5	10.5
Alcides Escobar	Royals	0.8	9.0	0.6	10.4
Dustin Pedroia	Red Sox	2.6	7.3	0.3	10.2
Matt Wieters	Orioles	0.2	10.0	-0.2	10.0
Ian Desmond	Nationals	2.9	6.6	0.5	10.0
Alex Rodriguez	Yankees	0.5	9.2	0.3	10.0
Pablo Sandoval	Giants	0.1	9.7	0.0	9.8
Gerardo Parra	Diamondbacks	1.3	8.4	0.0	9.7
Shane Victorino	Phillies	2.1	4.8	2.7	9.6
Brendan Ryan	Mariners	0.8	6.3	2.0	9.1

I was expecting TSBG to top the list, but he’ll have to settle for second for now. I was surprised to see Alex Rodriguez so high up on the list, but he appears to be having a great defensive season, something that’s been magnified when we watch his current stand-in flailing and kicking and throwing the ball to the fans behind the home dugout.

And here are the 20 players whose value is most hurt by these statistics.

Player	Team	SB/CS	aRS	BsR	Total
Mark Reynolds	Orioles	0.3	-20.5	-0.6	-20.8
Yuniesky Betancourt	Brewers	-0.1	-15.6	2.2	-13.5
Chris Johnson	Astros	-0.3	-12.2	-0.4	-12.9
Paul Konerko	White Sox	-0.2	-5.1	-7.0	-12.3
Aramis Ramirez	Cubs	-0.4	-6.6	-5.0	-11.9
Ryan Theriot	Cardinals	-0.6	-10.9	-0.3	-11.8
Yadier Molina	Cardinals	-1.7	-7.0	-2.4	-11.1
Wilson Valdez	Phillies	0.4	-9.9	0.0	-9.4
Miguel Cabrera	Tigers	-0.2	-6.8	-2.1	-9.0
Chipper Jones	Braves	-0.5	-5.3	-3.2	-9.0
Jhonny Peralta	Tigers	-0.8	-6.5	-1.7	-8.9
Raul Ibanez	Phillies	0.4	-9.9	0.5	-8.9
Ryan Howard	Phillies	0.2	-5.2	-3.9	-8.8
Freddie Freeman	Braves	-0.7	-6.3	-1.5	-8.5
Felix Pie	Orioles	-0.3	-8.1	0.0	-8.4
Cliff Pennington	Athletics	-1.3	-5.5	-1.3	-8.1
Eric Hosmer	Royals	0.1	-8.0	0.0	-7.9
Nate McLouth	Braves	-0.1	-7.8	0.0	-7.9
Bill Hall	- - -	-0.1	-7.5	0.0	-7.6
Danny Valencia	Twins	-1.1	-6.0	-0.4	-7.5

And here’s the entire list of Yankees.

Player	Team	SB/CS	aRS	BsR	Total
Brett Gardner	Yankees	2.6	12.8	1.8	17.2
Alex Rodriguez	Yankees	0.5	9.2	0.3	10.0
Chris Dickerson	Yankees	0.2	0.9	0.0	1.2
Eric Chavez	Yankees	0.0	1.0	0.0	1.0
Nick Swisher	Yankees	-0.3	4.2	-3.1	0.8
Ivan Nova	Yankees	0.0	0.4	0.0	0.4
Andruw Jones	Yankees	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.2
Freddy Garcia	Yankees	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1
Bartolo Colon	Yankees	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1
Gustavo Molina	Yankees	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Brian Gordon	Yankees	0.0	-0.3	0.0	-0.3
Greg Golson	Yankees	0.0	-0.5	0.0	-0.5
Boone Logan	Yankees	0.0	-0.6	0.0	-0.6
Jorge Posada	Yankees	-0.8	-0.2	0.0	-0.9
Ramiro Pena	Yankees	0.0	-1.0	0.0	-1.0
Curtis Granderson	Yankees	1.3	-6.2	3.9	-1.0
A.J. Burnett	Yankees	0.0	-1.1	0.0	-1.1
Francisco Cervelli	Yankees	0.9	-2.0	0.0	-1.1
CC Sabathia	Yankees	0.0	-2.0	0.0	-2.0
Robinson Cano	Yankees	0.9	-4.3	0.9	-2.5
Mark Teixeira	Yankees	0.1	-2.1	-0.6	-2.6
Russell Martin	Yankees	1.2	-4.0	0.0	-2.8
Derek Jeter	Yankees	0.6	-2.8	-1.4	-3.5
Eduardo Nunez	Yankees	0.9	-5.1	0.0	-4.2

Some of these numbers look off to me. Curtis Granderson hasn’t looked like anything worse than average in CF so far, and I’m a bit surprised to see Russell Martin so low on defense although he has allowed 56 SB which ranks fifth in the majors. I’m also fairly certain there’s no way Jorge Posada is any better than -20 in baserunning or that Eduardo Nunez is any better than -10 on defense. FWIW, Baseball Prospectus has Posada at -4.7 runs, which seems more realistic.

--Posted at 4:17 pm by SG / 3 Comments | - (0)

What Do The Yankees Really Need At the Trade Deadline?

Split	Yankees	LgAvg	Diff
as C	36.9	38.2	-1.3
as 1B	64.0	52.1	11.9
as 2B	59.2	41.9	17.3
as 3B	51.8	38.6	13.2
as SS	44.3	43.6	0.7
as LF	47.0	37.8	9.2
as CF	73.3	45.2	28.1
as RF	49.8	47.8	2.0
as DH	35.1	45.7	-10.5

This table just compares the linear weights batting runs the Yankees have gotten out of each position compared to league average pro-rated over the same number of outs.

While I don’t think Jorge Posada’s as bad as he’s shown this year, the fact is DH has been the biggest issue on the Yankees and with less than half the season remaining I don’t think we can expect that to change much unless the personnel changes. I don’t know if the Yankees will do anything given the politics of the situation, but I’d hope they’re at least considering it. Carlos Beltran seems like the obvious fit there, but the price may be steep given the number of suitors.

The only other area that’s been below average is catcher, thanks to Russell Martin’s free fall into horrendousness. Martin hit .333/.410/.722 over his first 16 games and 61 PA, and has hit .188/.297/.279 over his last 229. The scary thing about that is that Martin’s entire value on the season was concentrated in those first 61 PA. He’s been worth somewhere in the area of three runs more than an average catcher on offense, but it breaks down as 11 runs better over the first 61 PA and eight runs worse over the last 229.

I don’t know if Jesus Montero would be a net improvement because he really hasn’t hit all that well at AAA and his defense is very suspect, but I’d imagine that should the trade deadline pass without Montero moving he’ll probably be called up to see some time behind Martin and/or some DH time.

They could also obviously use a starting pitcher better than anyone they currently have aside from CC Sabathia, but those guys don’t grow on trees. We keep hearing about Ubaldo Jimenez but I am guessing he ends up staying in Colorado. They don’t need to trade him, and will probably only do so if they receive an offer they can’t refuse.

Although we keep seeing rumors about them looking for bullpen help, I think that’s dumb. The Yankee pen has the second best ERA and FIP in the AL, behind only Oakland who play in a pitchers’ park instead of a disgraceful bandbox. With the potential return of Rafael Soriano and with J.C. Romero around if they need another lefty, I don’t see the need there. Maybe instead of trading some of their prospects for a relief arm they could try them out in the pen themselves. Seems to have worked out well with Hector Noesi.

This team will look better when Alex Rodriguez comes back, so hopefully they can just stay close until then.

--Posted at 9:38 am by SG / 44 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Yankees.com: CC Sabathia is a Bad-Ass

NEW YORK—CC Sabathia and James Shields pitched like All-Stars on Sunday, dueling back and forth, sitting down batter after batter and not allowing a single earned run. The starters followed a day interrupted for celebrations by orchestrating the second-shortest game Yankee Stadium has held all season long.

Sabathia was nasty today and punctuated the game with a 98mph fastball to strike out Elliot Johnson, but the Rays basically gifted this one to the Yankees. Sean Rodriguez led off the second with a double and inexplicably tried to steal third and was thrown out. We don’t know how the rest of the inning would have played out, but there was a very good chance the Rays might have scored a run.

Similarly, the Yankee offense couldn’t do anything against Shields. Robinson Cano led off the seventh with a single, and then Jorge Posada followed up with a short fly to CF. B.J. Upton made the catch and then tried to double off Cano off first but instead threw the ball into the dugout near the Chuck Knoblauch memorial seats. They awarded Cano third base after that. Then, after Russell Martin grounded out to a drawn in infield for out number two which meant Cano couldn’t score, an errant pickoff throw by Shields let Cano score the only run of the game.

I don’t care, I’ll take it.

Sabathia has been ridiculously good over his last four starts.

31.2 IP, 22 H, 1 R, 6 BB, 42 K, 0 HR, 0.28 RA, 1.12 FIP. He’s going to make some serious coin when he opts out to join the Red Sox.

At least the Yankees will enter the All Star Break tied in the loss column with the best team of all time. You really couldn’t have expected any more than that, could you?

--Posted at 2:24 pm by SG / 15 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, July 3, 2011

NY Post: Sherman: Nunez to get an undeserved seat

“All the Reyes talk I had yesterday, maybe [Nunez] took it a little personal,” A-Rod said. “He’s been incredible.”

Maybe the league will catch up to him, or maybe Jeter will reach into the past this second half, be able to resuscitate brilliance. Maybe Jeter will get to the point at which he plays regularly rather than Nunez based on current events, not iconic standing.

For now, though, the best Yankees shortstop is about to become a backup player again.

Let the controversy begin!

Nunez projected to hit around .270/.300/.375 entering the season, and he hasn’t really played enough to change that projection significantly. That doesn’t mean he’s not better than that, but we do have to remember that as well as he’s hit of late, it’s still only a small set of PA.

Jeter’s going forward projection is somewhere in the .280/.340/.380 area. The same thing applies with Jeter, in that we don’t know if he’s actually better or worse than that. Whether he is or he isn’t, he can over or under-perform that over the rest of the year for no reason other than the vagaries of small sample size.

Interestingly, Nunez’s 80% CAIRO forecast is about .280/.320/.400. Can anyone guess the significance of that?

Anyway, between the uncertainty of his offensive projection going forward and the fact that his defense is still what some would charitably call an unmitigated disaster, I don’t think replacing Nunez with Jeter is a short-term downgrade. The Yankees haven’t been winning because Jeter’s been out of the lineup. They’ve been winning because people like Nick Swisher and Jorge Posada started hitting like they were expected to.

--Posted at 9:02 am by SG / 8 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Yankees.com: Yanks’ key homers back strong Burnett

Russell Martin’s first home run in more than a month served as the big blow behind A.J. Burnett’s effort on Wednesday, helping the Yankees to a 5-2 victory over the Brewers at Yankee Stadium.

The first-year Bombers backstop snapped a homerless streak of 68 at-bats by clearing the left-field wall in the fourth inning off Milwaukee starter Shaun Marcum, capping a four-run New York frame.

Jorge Posada added a sixth-inning homer that was credited after umpires used replay to overturn the original call, a brief interruption as the Yankees rolled to their 14th victory in 18 games.

Burnett bobbed and weaved through trouble all night, his effort receiving the assistance of double-play balls, including one turned on a great catch by center fielder Curtis Granderson.

A nice win on a rare day where the Yankees managed to pick up ground on both Tampa Bay and Boston.

And rilkefan can rejoice in the triumphant return of Sergio Mitre.

--Posted at 9:14 pm by SG / 31 Comments | - (0)

NY Post: Posada says Yankees still need Jeter

You can pound Zack Greinke and the Brewers on a sultry summer night at the Stadium late in June, and watch the kid shortstop single and walk and steal second base, and hear the drumbeat grow that the Yankees are better without Derek Jeter. It is knee-jerk madness, and no one knows this better than Jorge Posada.

“I don’t see that. Nobody in this organization sees that,” Posada told The Post before Yankees 12, Brewers 2. “Derek Jeter belongs in this organization, and they need him to be here. He is the guy that we look up to and the leader of this team. . . . [He’s] the guy that keeps doing and he’s going to keep doing what he needs to do to bring winning baseball to this organization.”

I think it’s safe to cross GM off Posada’s post-playing career options.

--Posted at 1:19 pm by SG / 40 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Yankees.com: With A-Rod’s help, CC first to 10 wins

NEW YORK—Alex Rodriguez began the week six days ago in a cramped hallway outside the visitors’ clubhouse at Wrigley Field, denying a report that he had a left shoulder strain and insisting that part of his body felt like any other through the course of a 162-game season.

On Saturday, Rodriguez continued to verify the strength of that shoulder with another stellar performance, recording a pair of hits and driving in three runs in the Yankees’ 8-3 win over the Rockies.

Rodriguez has been red-hot and is now up to .300/.379/.517. And don’t look now, but with a three for four day Jorge Posada’s up to .232/.323/.395. Not bad for a guy that was hitting .169/.285/.338 just 21 days ago.

CC looked very strong today. Aside from the juiced gun in Baltimore he looked to be throwing harder than he had at any point this season. As far as the 10 win thing, CC seemed unimpressed about it when asked about it, as well he should have been. Pitcher wins don’t tell us anything.

--Posted at 3:42 pm by SG / 38 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Trying to put 2011 Offense in Context

One of the things that’s made 2011 seem somewhat frustrating for me to watch at times this year is what appears to be poor performances by many of the key Yankee offensive players. Obviously there’s no way to spin Nick Swisher’s season as anything but awful, and Jorge Posada’s season long performance is lousy for a DH although there are signs of life lately.

The thing that I haven’t really gotten a good handle on is how the run environment of the 2011 AL has changed compared to the recent past and what that means as far as how we should look at player and team performance to this point.

Here are the AL league averages from 2009-2010 pro-rated to 2520 PA to match 2011.

Year	Tm	R/G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BR	GDP	HBP	BABIP
2009	LgAvg	4.82	2520	2245	315	599	119	11	74	301	44	16	222	441	.267	.336	.428	.764	312	52	21	.300
2010	LgAvg	4.45	2520	2251	293	585	117	11	64	279	44	16	214	442	.260	.327	.407	.734	291	52	21	.295
2011	LgAvg	4.33	2520	2251	285	571	115	12	61	271	46	19	213	437	.254	.322	.397	.719	279	52	22	.288

The drop between 2009 and 2010 was bigger than the drop from 2010 to 2011 but it doesn’t feel like that to me. It looks like the drop from 2009 to 2011 can be attributed in equal parts to HRs and a drop in BABIP. On a league-wide level, a drop in BABIP is almost certainly more meaningful than a similar drop would be for an individual player or team. It could be due to changes in environment, or due to teams seeking new ways to improve their defense, or many other reasons. What I don’t know is if things will stay at this level through year-end.

I thought that adjusting the player’s lines to account for the change between 2009-2011 might give us get a better idea of how they’ve performed relative to their environment on a scale that matches more typical expectations. So I just multiplied all the component stats by their ratio of an average for 2009-10 compared to 2011.

Player	2011	a2011
Russell Martin	.232/.338/.429	.241/.348/.450
Mark Teixeira#	.250/.368/.534	.259/.377/.562
Robinson Cano*	.285/.327/.500	.295/.337/.525
Derek Jeter	.260/.324/.324	.269/.334/.341
Alex Rodriguez	.284/.362/.511	.294/.372/.537
Brett Gardner*	.272/.351/.418	.282/.361/.440
Curtis Granderson*	.278/.351/.605	.288/.362/.636
Nick Swisher#	.221/.344/.343	.229/.354/.361
Jorge Posada#	.226/.321/.375	.234/.331/.394
Andruw Jones	.215/.282/.431	.223/.291/.453
Eduardo Nunez	.214/.254/.339	.222/.262/.357
Francisco Cervelli	.191/.250/.298	.198/.256/.313
Eric Chavez*	.303/.410/.424	.314/.423/.446
Chris Dickerson*	.333/.412/.467	.345/.420/.490
Gustavo Molina	.167/.167/.333	.173/.173/.350
Team Totals	.256/.339/.446	.265/.349/.469

Suddenly some of those lines look a bit better.

--Posted at 9:44 am by SG / 11 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, June 9, 2011

Just How Awful Have The Yankees Been Against Boston?

The Yankees dropped their seventh game in eight tries against the Red Sox last night in yet another inspired effort. It’s been frustrating to see the way the Yankees have rolled over for the Red Sox this year. What they’ve done is spotted Boston a six game advantage in the standings.

We know the won/loss record is bad. It’s even worse when you realize they’ve played three games in Boston and five(soon to be six) in New York and are on the verge of being swept at home twice. After today the Yankees will only play Boston three more times at home and they still have to play them six times in Fenway, which rarely goes well.

For a team to go 1-7 against another team while playing five of those eight games at home, they’d have to be around a 49 win team playing against a 113 win team. At this point I don’t doubt the Red Sox are better than the Yankees, but I’m not sure that they’re 65 wins better.

So let’s assign the blame.

Player	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	HBP	K	SB	CS	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BRAA
Russell Martin	27	5	5	0	0	3	3	2	3	0	0	0	.227	.370	.636	5	2
Robinson Cano	32	3	8	3	0	1	2	2	6	1	0	1	.286	.375	.500	5	2
Francisco Cervelli	4	2	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1.000	1.000	1.333	2	2
Eric Chavez	8	1	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.750	2	1
Curtis Granderson	36	7	7	1	1	2	4	0	15	1	0	0	.219	.306	.500	5	1
Alex Rodriguez	32	5	6	1	0	2	2	1	9	1	0	0	.207	.281	.448	4	0
Jorge Posada	16	2	4	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	0	.286	.375	.286	2	0
Andruw Jones	11	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	7	0	0	0	.182	.182	.455	1	0
Eduardo Nunez	7	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	.167	.286	.167	0	0
Brett Gardner	31	3	5	1	1	0	5	0	5	2	1	1	.192	.323	.308	3	-1
Nick Swisher	32	1	6	3	0	0	3	0	7	0	0	0	.207	.281	.310	3	-1
Derek Jeter	39	3	7	1	0	0	2	1	6	0	1	2	.194	.256	.222	1	-3
Mark Teixeira	34	0	4	0	0	0	3	1	10	0	0	0	.138	.235	.138	1	-3
Total	309	34	62	13	2	9	28	7	71	5	2	4	.227	.314	.388	34	0
AL Avg	309	35	70	14	1	8	26	3	54	6	2	6	.253	.321	.396	34	0

BR are linear weights batting runs. BRAA are BR above an average AL hitter, not adjusted for position.

Because the offense in MLB is down significantly this year, while that line looks awful relative to our normal context, in the context of today’s AL it’s not that bad. AL average line right now is .253/.321/.396. We also don’t know if that performance is good or bad in the context of the “strength” of the Yankees and the strength of the Red Sox. It’s really only useful in terms of comparing how the players stack up against each other. In this case you can see the Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira are the chief problems on offense, but there’s a whole lot of stinking going on there.

The team’s actual runs scored are a direct match for their batting runs, which indicates they’ve scored as many runs as they should have given their component stats and have not been unlucky or lucky in terms of how their performance has translated to runs on the scoreboard.

There’s more blame to dish out!

Player	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	HBP	K	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAA
Freddy Garcia	8.0	11	10	9	3	6	1	6	11.25	10.13	8.87	-6.2
A.J. Burnett	5.7	7	8	7	1	4	0	3	12.71	11.12	6.22	-5.3
Phil Hughes	2.0	7	6	6	1	2	0	0	27.00	27.00	12.37	-5.0
Joba Chamberlain	3.7	6	5	5	2	2	0	4	12.27	12.27	9.42	-3.3
Lance Pendleton	1.7	3	3	3	2	2	0	2	16.20	16.20	19.67	-2.2
Ivan Nova	4.3	7	4	4	0	3	1	3	8.31	8.31	4.25	-1.9
CC Sabathia	12.3	16	7	7	1	7	2	10	5.11	5.11	4.49	-1.1
Bartolo Colon	10.3	7	5	3	1	4	0	9	4.35	2.61	3.55	-0.1
Rafael Soriano	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.00	0.00	6.87	0.5
Mariano Rivera	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.00	3.87	0.5
Hector Noesi	6.0	3	2	2	1	1	0	1	3.00	3.00	5.20	0.9
David Robertson	4.0	2	1	0	0	3	0	4	2.25	0.00	3.12	0.9
Boone Logan	4.7	4	1	1	0	3	0	4	1.93	1.93	3.08	1.2
Luis Ayala	5.3	6	0	0	0	2	0	4	0.00	0.00	2.50	2.5
Total	70.0	80	52	47	12	42	4	52	6.69	6.04	5.58	-18.7
AL Avg	70	67	33	30	7	25	3	52	4.28	3.91	3.91	0.0

RSAA are runs saved compared to an average pitcher using RA vs. league average RA. FIP is Fielding-independent pitching which focuses on a pitcher’s HR, BB/HBP and Ks against. Again, neither of these account for the context of the opponent so it’s more for comparison among Yankees.

I’m thinking the Yankees may want to skip Freddy Garcia’s next turn against Boston. The Yankees have allowed 52 total runs against Boston, and according to linear weights they should have allowed 49, so just like on offense there’s no evidence of bad luck here. They’ve pitched as poorly as the basic stats say they did. The Yankees have a team BABIP against of .281 this season against everyone but Boston. Against Boston it’s .311. Whether that’s on the pitchers or the defense or some combination of both, I don’t know.

It’s sad, but it’s gotten to the point where I am not even bothering to watch these games. When you finish dinner and turn on the game and see your team is already down 3-0 before they’ve even gotten an out, why watch?

I’d like to say I have a good feeling about CC Sabathia going today, but unfortunately with the Yankee offense backing him you get the feeling that anything less than perfection won’t be good enough.

Again, I’ll say I don’t think the Red Sox are 65 wins better than the Yankees. 60, maybe.

--Posted at 10:26 am by SG / 34 Comments | - (0)

Monday, May 23, 2011

Where Are The Yankees’ Missing Hits?

It’s not very likely that scoring eight runs without the benefit of a home run in last night’s seventh inning is going to quell the clowns who think the Yankees are eschewing hits for home runs and that they need to stop hitting the ball over the fence and instead hit more bleeders and bloops. They’ll cite a team batting average that ranks 11th in MLB while ignoring the fact that the Yankees have the second highest team wOBA in baseball(behind St. Louis) and the second-highest BB rate in MLB (tied with the Mets) despite only ranking 15th in strikeout rate. If they were really swinging for the fences on every pitch in a concerted effort to hit more HRs shouldn’t they be striking out more than that? Aren’t HRs a function of hitting the ball hard, and isn’t that what hitters should be doing?

Anyway, the primary culprit in the Yankees’ seeming inability to only score via the home run is their team’s batting average. Their team batting average on balls in play(BABIP) is at .274, which ranks among the worst in MLB (tied for third-worst with the Washington Nationals and worse than the Mariners). BABIP ignores home runs, so if you instead look at on-contact average they move up to 10th in MLB.

If you compare the team’s current cumulative batting line to their projections using the actual distribution of playing time so far, you can see what’s different from expectations.

Type	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR
YTD	1727	1518	235	385	62	10	71	229	26	13	173	317	21	48	.254	.335	.448	.341	223
Proj	1727	1511	225	404	77	8	58	216	32	10	182	303	17	35	.267	.349	.444	.347	232
Diff	0	7	10	-19	-15	2	13	13	-6	3	-9	14	4	13					-9

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: linear weights batting runs

As a team, the Yankees have 19 fewer hits than projected, mostly doubles. They’ve hit 13 more home runs than expected, and overall they’re actually about nine runs below their projections. The killer number here that has been driving me nuts this year are the double plays. The Yankees are tied for second in MLB at 48, with the Cardinals the runaway leader with 58. That’s partially a function of getting people on base. If you look at it in terms of percentage of times they’ve hit into a double play in double play situations they’re at 14.4% which only ranks 7th in MLB. That still doesn’t make it any less annoying.

So who are the culprits in the Yankees’ lower than expected batting average. You probably already have a good idea, but here you go.

Player	Team	Lg	Pos	Type	H	1B	2B	3B	HR
Jorge Posada	Yankees	AL	DH	Diff	-9	-7	-3	0	1
Nick Swisher	Yankees	AL	RF	Diff	-8	0	-1	-1	-6
Mark Teixeira	Yankees	AL	1B	Diff	-6	-5	-3	0	2
Robinson Cano	Yankees	AL	2B	Diff	-5	-4	-3	0	2
Derek Jeter	Yankees	AL	SS	Diff	-2	3	-4	0	-2
Francisco Cervelli	Yankees	AL	C	Diff	-2	-3	0	0	1
Andruw Jones	Yankees	AL	LF	Diff	-1	0.8	-1	0	0
Gustavo Molina	Yankees	AL	C	Diff	0	-1	1	0	0
Eduardo Nunez	Yankees	AL	SS	Diff	0	-1	1	0	0
Russell Martin	Yankees	AL	C	Diff	2	-4	0	0	5
Chris Dickerson	Yankees	AL	DH	Diff	2	1.5	1	0	0
Eric Chavez	Yankees	AL	3B	Diff	2	1.7	0	1	-1
Brett Gardner	Yankees	AL	LF	Diff	2	0.3	-1	1	1
Curtis Granderson	Yankees	AL	CF	Diff	2	-4	-3	1	8
Alex Rodriguez	Yankees	AL	3B	Diff	2	1.5	1	0	0

Although readers of this blog for the most part understand that batting average isn’t very informative, when five of the nine regulars are lower than expected in hits per AB it contributes to our perception that the team is underperforming.

For all the stories regarding Jorge Posada, Nick Swisher is the Yankee who so far has been the worst performer relative to his projection once you account for playing time.

Player	BR
Curtis Granderson	6.7
Russell Martin	6.2
Eric Chavez	1.9
Eduardo Nunez	1.4
Chris Dickerson	1.4
Gustavo Molina	-0.2
Francisco Cervelli	-0.4
Alex Rodriguez	-0.8
Mark Teixeira	-0.8
Robinson Cano	-1.2
Brett Gardner	-1.6
Andruw Jones	-2.5
Jorge Posada	-5.0
Derek Jeter	-6.0
Nick Swisher	-8.7

Even Jeter’s been worse than Posada by this measure, primarily since he’s getting the most PAs on the team. I think it’s time to put Gardner at the top against righties, although if all that does is move Jeter to second it’s pointless.

I think Swisher is the biggest issue the Yankees have right now. If Posada doesn’t start showing signs of life, they have internal options for DH. As disappointing as Jeter’s been this year, he’s the Yankees’ best option at shortstop right now. With Swisher, we know he’s got the ability to be a key contributor to the team, but we also have data in the not so distant past that he may just have a horrible season. I like Chris Dickerson as a fourth OF, but I don’t think I’d want to see him out there every day. If Andruw Jones was playing a bit better a Jones/Dickerson platoon might work, but I doubt they sit Swisher long-term. So let’s hope he gets better.

--Posted at 9:47 am by SG / 20 Comments | - (0)

Friday, May 20, 2011

TGS NY: Jorge, DJ join Yankees’ bat attack

They left New York on Sunday, swept by the Red Sox and in the midst of the Jorge Posada sitdown turmoil. They return with Posada, sporting a first baseman’s glove, an RBI double, a good swing right-handed and a tiny glimmer that maybe there are a few more good days in pinstripes for him.

On top of that, Posada’s good buddy Derek Jeter took a break from hitting ground balls to knock a double and a triple Thursday.

I’ve wondered why the Yankees didn’t try Posada at 1B sooner. Given the way a lot of players seem to struggle with the DH, it may have helped Posada with the transition from being actively involved on every single pitch his team threw to sitting in the dugout waiting for his next chance to make an out.

--Posted at 11:45 am by SG / 37 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Five Singles and Three Doubles

Five singles and three doubles are the difference between Jorge Posada’s current year-to-date performance and his average projection heading into the season.

Player	Team	Lg	Pos	Type	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR
Jorge Posada	Yankees	AL	DH	YTD	129	20	3	0	6	16	30	1	4	.179	.287	.366	11.8
Jorge Posada	Yankees	AL	DH	Proj	129	28	6	0	5	15	29	1	3	.254	.344	.443	17.0
Jorge Posada	Yankees	AL	DH	Diff	0	-8	-3	0	1	1	1	0	1	-.075	-.057	-.077	-5.2

That’s not insignificant, but I think it’s small enough to think that he can still hit enough to be useful if he’s given enough time. He’s actually one HR ahead of his projection which means five singles and one double would have him right at his projection.

--Posted at 8:44 am by SG / 32 Comments | - (0)

Monday, May 16, 2011

TGS NY: Sources: Yankees irked by Derek Jeter

Derek Jeter’s negotiations with the New York Yankees last winter seemed to have been Round 1 in the tense transitional relationship between the club’s accomplished Old Guard and management. Jorge Posada’s episode over the weekend was Round 2.

And now there may be a Round 3 in the hours and days ahead after Jeter, in his statements to reporters, essentially exonerated Posada from any wrongdoing for taking himself out of Saturday’s lineup against Boston. According to sources, Yankees management was surprised and frustrated by what Jeter said—particularly in his standing as captain—even after Posada acknowledged that he was wrong in his actions Saturday and apologized to manager Joe Girardi.

This is going to be one hell of a summer, isn’t it?

--Posted at 1:00 pm by SG / 26 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, May 14, 2011

May 14, 2011 Complaint Thread

I’m going out on a limb and saying this team isn’t coming back from down 6-0. Complain away.

In Jorge Posada news:

MLB.com: Slated to bat ninth, Posada asks out of lineup

NEW YORK—Jorge Posada asked out of the Yankees’ lineup about one hour before he was slated to bat ninth against the Red Sox on Saturday, general manager Brian Cashman said.

Laura Posada’s Twitter:

Jorge loves being a Yankee > anything. He’s trying his best to help his team win. Today, due to back stiffness he wasn’t able to do that.

--Posted at 8:41 pm by SG / 37 Comments | - (0)

Monday, May 9, 2011

Salvaging The Road Trip From Hell

On May 5, the Yankees were 16-9 and in sole possession of first place in the AL East. They led Tampa Bay and Baltimore by four in the loss column and Toronto and Boston by six.

The lost three of four to Detroit in a series where they probably should have split but salvaged a bit by taking two of three in Texas. By log5 they should have gone 3.5-3.5, so by going 3-4 they ended up only losing about one-half game on expectations. Only Tampa Bay picked up any ground on them in the loss column. So all in all, despite what seemed to be a disaster in the making, the Yankees aren’t really much worse off than they were before the road trip.

IMO, the real story of the road trip is the possibility that Derek Jeter may still be a useful player on offense.

Dates	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	GDP	avg	obp	slg	woba	isoD	isoP
3/31 - 4/10	105	23	2	0	0	9	10	3	.242	.314	.263	.272	.072	.021
4/11 - 5/2	29	11	1	0	2	1	5	0	.393	.414	.643	.449	.021	.250

Dates	br	br/650	babip	FB	GB	LD	IFH	fb%	gb%	ld%	bb/pa	k/pa
3/31 - 4/10	7	45	.271	15	62	8	7	17.6%	72.9%	9.4%	8.6%	9.5%
4/11 - 5/2	6	132	.429	4	12	7	2	17.4%	52.2%	30.4%	3.4%	17.2%

FB: fly balls
GB: ground balls
LD: line drives
IFH: infield hits
woba: weighted on-base average
isoD: Isolated plate discipline (obp - avg)
isoP: Isolated power (slg - avg)
br: linear weights batting runs
br/650: br pro-rated to 650 PA
babip: batting average on balls in play

Jeter appeared to be hitting the ball harder over this road trip, and that’s borne out in his LD% and isoP. Of course, you never want to make too much of 29 PA, but I am encouraged. Not because of the results of 29 good PA, but because Jeter demonstrated something I really didn’t think he was physically capable of doing any more.

Time will tell if yesterday’s game was a blip like June 12, 2010 or the announcement of his return to offensive prominence.

It was a good thing Jeter hit over the road trip, because some of his teammates didn’t.

Player	PA	wOBA
Eric Chavez	2	.780
Curtis Granderson	31	.467
Derek Jeter	29	.450
Mark Teixeira	30	.400
Brett Gardner	25	.367
Nick Swisher	24	.358
Francisco Cervelli	8	.356
Eduardo Nunez	9	.338
Jorge Posada	28	.276
Russell Martin	21	.273
Alex Rodriguez	28	.245
Robinson Cano	25	.199
Andruw Jones	10	.162

I’m fairly certain Martin, Cano and Rodriguez will hit going forward, and if Andruw Jones doesn’t he won’t play. Jorge Posada may just be in an unlucky stretch and should be hitting better than he has so far, but if he isn’t, at some point the Yankees really need to start getting more production out of DH.

--Posted at 8:04 am by SG / 68 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Is Jorge Posada the Worst Base Runner ever?

Baseball Prospectus has base running data going back to 1954. They basically just look at the opportunites for a player to advance on the bases on all the events where it’s possible and compare it to average. So they look at opportunites to advance on ground and fly ball outs, stolen bases, hits and any others (WP, PB, etc.,).

Using their data, here are the 50 worst baserunners over their careers for seasons from 1954 through 2010.

Name: Run value
Frank Thomas: -69.8
Jim Thome: -52.8
Mike Piazza: -51.2
Ted Simmons: -51.0
Jorge Posada: -50.9
Todd Zeile: -50.2
Edgar Martinez: -49.5
Harmon Killebrew: -48.5
Tony Pena: -48.3
Wade Boggs: -47.3
Lance Parrish: -46.1
Eddie Murray: -45.6
Fred McGriff: -45.2
Harold Baines: -44.9
Carlos Delgado: -43.3
Bob Boone: -43.3
Greg Luzinski: -42.7
Willie McCovey: -41.9
Rusty Staub: -41.8
Rick Cerone: -41.7
Alvin Davis: -41.0
Bengie Molina: -40.2
Manny Ramirez: -40.2
Tim Wallach: -39.2
Chili Davis: -39.1
Boog Powell: -39.0
Dave Magadan: -38.5
Benito Santiago: -38.2
Paul Konerko: -38.2
Hal McRae: -37.7
Gary Carter: -37.3
Dave Parker: -37.3
Reggie Jackson: -37.2
Tino Martinez: -37.2
Ron Cey: -37.1
Mo Vaughn: -36.9
Jason Thompson: -36.9
Eric Karros: -36.8
Alan Ashby: -36.1
Chris Chambliss: -35.6
Cecil Fielder: -35.5
J.T. Snow: -35.4
Ed Bailey: -35.4
Ken Reitz: -35.4
Tom Brunansky: -35.4
Javy Lopez: -35.3
Vinny Castilla: -35.2
Mark McGwire: -35.2
John Olerud: -34.9
Robin Ventura: -34.8

I guess he’s not the worst, but he’s inner circle at least. He’s almost certainly passed Piazza and Simmons with yesterday’s performance. He probably won’t be able to catch Thomas, but it’ll be “fun” to see the chase between Posada and Thome for second place.

--Posted at 3:50 pm by SG / 108 Comments | - (0)

Monday, May 2, 2011

Yankees.com: Yanks outlast Tigers after Colon’s fine start

DETROIT—Bartolo Colon delivered yet another solid start, Nick Swisher broke a tie with an RBI single in the ninth inning and Mariano Rivera closed the door, giving the Yankees a 5-3 win over the Tigers at Comerica Park on Monday night.

Colon had given up just three runs in his previous two starts combined—a span of 14 2/3 innings—and limited the Tigers to three runs over seven innings in start No. 3.

The Yankees wore out Justin Verlander, who needed 127 pitches to get through six innings, but going 1 for 11 with RISP prior to the ninth inning meant they needed Swisher’s late heroics to pull this one out. Colon looked good again, with two solo opposite field HRs by Alex Avila the only real ding on his performance. He struck out seven and walked none, continuing his very encouraging strike throwing ways. Joba looked very good in pitching the eighth, and Mo pitched a perfect ninth, hopefully burying the 2011 edition of WWWMW™.

Brett Gardner continued his better play of late, getting on base three times in four PA, and Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter also added two hits apiece. Hopefully that’s a sign of things to come.

In other news, Phil Hughes’s circulatory tests came back negative. This is good news and I’m happy for Hughes, although it means that the cause for his problems so far this year are still a question mark.

--Posted at 9:43 pm by SG / 65 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Yankees.com: Yanks’ five homers plenty for CC’s first win

Alex Rodriguez hit a grand slam and drove in six runs. Russell Martin hit two homers and finished with four RBIs, and Jorge Posada added a two-run shot. All of that helped CC Sabathia (1-1) get his first victory this season.

Nothing like returning to DNYS to help boost those HR totals. Even TSBG joined in the fun.

What a disgrace of a ballpark.

--Posted at 8:53 pm by SG / 35 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

2011 Yankees projected vs actual through April 19

As a card-carrying member of the baseball stat nerd cult, I understand that we shouldn’t read too much into the results of early-season performance. We should generally trust that a player’s performance will more often than not regress towards their expected performance as the season moves on.

That doesn’t mean the data we have so far this season is useless in terms of telling us what’s happened. It just means we shouldn’t expect it to tell us all that much about what will happen.

Here’s a quick comparison of the differences between the Yankees’ projections and actual performance so far.

player	team	pa	ytd_woba	proj_woba	ytd-proj
Rodriguez, Alex	Yankees	50	.531	.376	6.8
Martin, Russell	Yankees	52	.398	.328	3.1
Chavez, Eric	Yankees	20	.421	.285	2.4
Granderson, Curtis	Yankees	55	.377	.345	1.5
Jones, Andruw	Yankees	12	.414	.326	0.9
Cano, Robinson	Yankees	64	.375	.360	0.8
Teixeira, Mark	Yankees	66	.395	.383	0.7
Posada, Jorge	Yankees	54	.322	.344	-1.0
Swisher, Nick	Yankees	64	.309	.356	-2.6
Jeter, Derek	Yankees	66	.262	.332	-4.0
Gardner, Brett	Yankees	51	.182	.325	-6.3
Total		554	.352	.348	2

ytd_woba year to date weighted on-base average
proj_woba average projected wOBA
ytd-proj run value of difference between projected and year to date woba

Brett Gardner’s the biggest disappointment so far offensively. Whether’s it’s just a rough start or indicative of something that we should worry about is something we just don’t know yet.

Did you know Gardner’s not the player who’s under-peforming his projection by the most? Here’s that list.

player	team	pa	ytd_woba	proj_woba	ytd-proj
Crawford, Carl	Red Sox	66	.166	.351	-10.6
Loney, James	Dodgers	71	.192	.329	-8.5
Pujols, Albert	Cardinals	73	.308	.431	-7.8
Johnson, Dan	Rays	54	.196	.350	-7.2
Alvarez, Pedro	Pirates	65	.218	.340	-6.9
Wells, Vernon	Angels	74	.220	.325	-6.7
Morneau, Justin	Twins	56	.246	.381	-6.6
Choo, Shin-Soo	Indians	74	.271	.372	-6.5
Jackson, Austin	Tigers	72	.213	.315	-6.4
Gardner, Brett	Yankees	51	.182	.325	-6.3

Apparently Austin Jackson did not have the BABIP skill to maintain his 2010 performance, at least so far.

The net on the offense is actually fine. As a unit they’ve collectively slightly overperformed, but not to a large extent.

The pitching is the real problem.

Last, First	mlbam_id	ip	ytd_ra	ytd_fip	p_ra	p_fip	diff_ra	diff_fip
Garcia, Freddy	150119	6.0	0.00	3.37	4.96	4.75	3.3	0.9
Sabathia, CC	282332	25.0	2.88	3.08	3.66	3.62	2.2	1.5
Burnett, A.J.	150359	22.7	4.76	4.88	4.98	4.55	0.5	-0.8
Nova, Ivan	467100	14.7	7.36	4.22	5.43	4.95	-3.2	1.2
Hughes, Phil	461833	10.3	13.94	8.81	4.19	4.12	-11.2	-5.4
Total		78.7	5.49	4.59			-8.3	-2.6
Last, First	mlbam_id	ip	ytd_ra	ytd_fip	p_ra	p_fip	diff_ra	diff_fip
Robertson, David	502085	6.0	0.00	1.87	3.95	3.70	2.6	1.2
Pendleton, Lance	459983	3.0	0.00	1.87	5.25	4.94	1.7	1.0
Rivera, Mariano	121250	9.3	1.93	2.02	3.02	3.32	1.1	1.4
Colon, Bartolo	112526	11.3	4.76	2.85	5.56	4.96	1.0	2.7
Ayala, Luis	425646	5.0	3.60	6.20	5.39	4.60	1.0	-0.9
Chamberlain, Joba	501955	10.0	4.50	2.40	4.41	3.88	-0.1	1.6
Garcia, Freddy	150119	1.0	9.00	4.20	4.96	4.75	-0.4	0.1
Nova, Ivan	467100	0.7	13.50	3.20	5.43	4.95	-0.6	0.1
Logan, Boone	457429	3.0	9.00	6.53	4.68	4.41	-1.4	-0.7
Soriano, Rafael	400089	7.7	7.04	3.59	3.37	3.51	-3.1	-0.1
Total		22.3	10.48	7.90			-5.7	1.1
Team Total		101.0	6.59	5.32			-14.0	-1.6

ytd_ra: year to date runs allowed per nine innings
ytd_fip: year to date fielding-independent pitching
p_ra: average projected ra
p_fip: average projected fip
diff_ra: difference in runs between projected and actual ra
diff_fip: difference in runs between projected and actual fip

Add about 7 inches and 65 pounds to Brett Gardner and you’ve got Phil Hughes. The thing that really scares me here is seeing that A.J. Burnett’s FIP is actually worse than his projected FIP. He’s looked better than that to me, although I guess last night’s game is evidence that he’s still a work in progress.

The pen has been a bit worse than expected, primarly thanks to Boone Logan and Rafael Soriano. I’d expect Soriano to be fine going forward, but I’m not so sure on Logan.

I figured Hughes had to be the pitcher who’s been underperforming by the most this year, but it turns out that’s not quite true.

Last, First	mlbam_id	ip	ytd_ra	ytd_fip	p_ra	p_fip	diff_ra	diff_fip
Pelfrey, Mike	460059	16.7	10.80	5.66	4.52	4.15	-11.6	-2.8
Hughes, Phil	461833	10.3	13.94	8.81	4.19	4.12	-11.2	-5.4
Bedard, Erik	407853	13.7	10.54	8.03	3.87	3.91	-10.1	-6.3
Figueroa, Nelson	150153	16.0	10.13	2.89	4.54	4.39	-9.9	2.7
Lackey, John	407793	14.7	9.82	6.00	4.61	4.08	-8.5	-3.1
Westbrook, Jake	150414	15.3	9.39	6.85	4.47	4.36	-8.4	-4.3
Hernandez, Felix	433587	27.0	6.00	3.24	3.24	3.29	-8.3	0.2
Penny, Brad	207267	21.3	8.44	5.78	4.97	4.46	-8.2	-3.1

Over at Baseball Think Factory there’ve been a few threads that were essentially arguments between Yankees fans and Mets fans about who you’d rather have, Hughes or Mike Pelfrey. Apparently, the correct answer is neither.

--Posted at 1:33 pm by SG / 26 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Yankees.com: Big blasts back Burnett as Yanks top O’s

NEW YORK—A.J. Burnett continued his strong opening act by winning his third straight start, backed by home runs from Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada as the Yankees defeated the Orioles, 7-4, on Wednesday at Yankee Stadium.

Intent upon bouncing back after a disappointing season in 2010, Burnett was staked to an early lead by his bats and remained in control of the Baltimore lineup into the seventh inning before serving up a pair of two-run homers.

Although his final line looks less than stellar, I thought Burnett pitched very well tonight. He labored through the first two innings, throwing something like 50 pitches, then cruised through the next four innings. Innings 3-6 might have been the best I’ve seen Burnett pitch as a Yankee. What I really liked was his increased use of the changeup.

Burnett got Adam Jones out to start the top of the 7th, then allowed a double and a HR. I’d have probably pulled him then, figuring he may be fatigued or the weather may have gotten to him. Girardi decided to stick with him and he gave up another two-run HR, to pull the Orioles within three. Girardi was clearly confused at this point, because even though it was the 7th inning he did not bring in his 7th inning guy, instead going with David Robertson who closed out the inning. Rafael Soriano and Mariano Rivera finished it out, like they normally should and the Yankees are now tied for first place. Yay!

--Posted at 9:06 pm by SG / 32 Comments | - (0)

Monday, April 11, 2011

Yankee BABIP vs. xBABIP through April 10, 2011

Using the methodology referenced in this article, here’s a comparison of the Yankees’ YTD BABIP (batting average on balls in play) compared to their expected BABIP.

player	bip	babip	avg/obp/slg	br	xbabip	xavg/obp/slg	xbr	dbr
Eric Chavez	9	.444	.444/.444/.667	2.6	.278	.278/.278/.500	2.1	0.6
Robinson Cano	29	.345	.324/.342/.595	9.4	.307	.295/.313/.565	8.9	0.4
Andruw Jones	3	.333	.400/.400/1.200	2.3	.302	.381/.381/1.181	2.2	0.0
Eduardo Nunez	1	.000	.000/.000/.000	0.0	.000	.000/.000/.000	0.0	0.0
Alex Rodriguez	21	.286	.321/.441/.714	9.8	.286	.322/.441/.714	9.8	0.0
Russell Martin	22	.273	.300/.344/.633	8.1	.327	.340/.381/.673	8.5	-0.5
Nick Swisher	26	.269	.219/.289/.250	5.0	.297	.260/.324/.291	5.5	-0.5
Curtis Granderson	15	.200	.172/.250/.414	5.6	.326	.238/.309/.479	6.3	-0.7
Derek Jeter	29	.241	.206/.300/.235	5.3	.299	.264/.350/.294	6.1	-0.8
Brett Gardner	23	.217	.167/.250/.267	4.6	.339	.237/.327/.337	5.4	-0.8
Mark Teixeira	19	.105	.182/.325/.545	8.9	.319	.305/.427/.669	10.4	-1.5
Jorge Posada	17	.059	.138/.194/.448	5.3	.316	.289/.335/.599	7.0	-1.7
Total	214	.243	.236/.310/.471	66.7	.322	.284/.354/.519	72.2	-5.4

br and xbr are actual and expected linear weights batting runs, not adjusted for position or compared to average/replacement level. dbr is just actual br minus xbr. A positive dbr means that a player’s current BABIP is probably higher than it should be, and vice versa.

The good news is that most of the team should probably be hitting a bit better than they have to this point. The bad news is that even if Derek Jeter’s been a bit unlucky so far, even if that corrects itself he still looks pretty bad.

Interesting fact. Jeter does NOT lead baseball in ground balls so far.

Player	BIP	LD	GB	FB	IFFB
Alcides Escobar	38	4	26	8	1
Jose Tabata	35	5	23	7	0
Ichiro Suzuki	33	3	23	7	0
Derek Jeter	29	3	23	3	1
Jimmy Rollins	32	5	22	5	0
Chipper Jones	37	5	22	10	1
Starlin Castro	37	8	21	8	0
Michael Young	34	6	21	7	0
Lyle Overbay	32	3	21	8	0
Adrian Gonzalez	32	4	20	8	0
Juan Pierre	40	11	20	9	1
Joe Mauer	25	1	20	4	0
A.J. Pierzynski	35	4	19	12	1
Chris Coghlan	34	4	19	11	0
Miguel Tejada	32	3	18	11	1
Kevin Kouzmanoff	25	2	18	6	0
Hunter Pence	28	3	17	8	1
Denard Span	29	6	17	6	2
Buster Posey	24	4	17	3	0
Skip Schumaker	29	5	17	7	2

So far the ground ball title is Alcides Escobar’s to lose.

--Posted at 4:17 pm by SG / 75 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Yankee Position Players through April 4, 2011

Player	Team	Lg	Pos	PA	wOBA	BRAR	RS	WAR
Mark Teixeira	Yankees	AL	1B	18	.583	3.5	0.1	0.4
Alex Rodriguez	Yankees	AL	3B	17	.553	3.4	-0.6	0.3
Russell Martin	Yankees	AL	C	14	.484	2.6	0.0	0.3
Jorge Posada	Yankees	AL	DH	16	.508	2.3	0.0	0.2
Curtis Granderson	Yankees	AL	CF	14	.318	0.6	0.8	0.1
Robinson Cano	Yankees	AL	2B	18	.366	1.1	0.1	0.1
Nick Swisher	Yankees	AL	RF	18	.339	0.3	0.0	0.0
Eric Chavez	Yankees	AL	3B	1	.000	-0.2	0.1	0.0
Eduardo Nunez	Yankees	AL	SS	1	.000	-0.2	-0.5	-0.1
Brett Gardner	Yankees	AL	LF	16	.158	-1.6	0.4	-0.1
Derek Jeter	Yankees	AL	SS	17	.191	-1.1	-1.0	-0.2
Total				150	.389	11	-1	1

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: Linear weights batting runs above replacement level, adjusted for position
RS: Defensive runs saved compared to average
WAR: Wins above replacement (BRAR + RS divided by 10).

Just goofing around with my spreadsheets again and figured I’d put this up.

--Posted at 11:35 am by SG / 20 Comments | - (0)

Monday, April 4, 2011

MLB.com: Yankees’ bullpen finishes job for Nova

NEW YORK—Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada hit two-run homers to support Ivan Nova’s first start of the year as the Yankees defeated the Twins, 4-3, on Monday at Yankee Stadium.

I thought Nova looked pretty good overall. His location was great for most of the game. Even the pitch that Thome hit for a two-run double was good one, a changeup down in the zone. He could have located it a bit more outside, but it wasn’t a bad spot really; tip your cap to the forty year old on that one.

--Posted at 9:16 pm by Jonathan / 33 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, April 3, 2011

Yankees.com: Hughes can’t capitalize on Yanks’ homers

NEW YORK—Phil Hughes was hit for five runs in four innings, including a pair of Miguel Cabrera homers, as the Yankees fell to the Tigers on Sunday, 10-7, at Yankee Stadium.

Jorge Posada homered twice and drove in four runs for the Yankees, leading a charge that also included round-trippers from Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano, but it was not enough to outslug Detroit’s attack.

Having tied a franchise record by surrendering 20 homers in the Bronx last season, Hughes saw his struggles within the cozy confines continue, as he was charged with five runs on five hits in a 90-pitch outing.

Cabrera slugged a two-run homer off Hughes in the first inning, teeing off on a flat slider, and the slugging first baseman struck again for another two-run shot in the third on a cutter over the heart of the plate.
...
The Yankees had eyed Hughes’ velocity closely this spring, with manager Joe Girardi stating that he would be curious to see when Hughes begins to sit comfortably at 93-94 mph, where he pitched at times last season.

Against Detroit on Sunday, however, Hughes was more in the area of 88-89 mph, maxing out at 91.

It was a frustrating game to watch, as the Yankee offense kept trying to get the team back into the game only to see the pitchers continue to give it back. I’m not going to get that concerned about the results of this game, but I didn’t like what I saw out of Hughes. As the excerpt says, his velocity was crappy and he couldn’t compensate for it with his secondary pitches. On the other hand, although Bartolo Colon’s final line looks pretty bad, I thought he was throwing well. He got up to 95 a few times, and struck out five in four innings while walking only one. He gave up four runs, but FIP says he only should have given up two.

On the plus side, with another homer today it’s starting to look like Mark Texeira may be able to avoid his typical early season woes, and Jorge Posada showed that his bat still has some life in it. Posada’s offense has always been superlative for a catcher, but as a DH now the bar is higher. Also, by losing the Yankees were able to rest Mariano Rivera, so that’s good.

I’m a bit concerned about Hughes’s velocity, but it is just one start. Hopefully he’s got a bit more juice in his next one.

--Posted at 3:51 pm by SG / 10 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Looking Ahead To 2011 - Position Player Wrap-Up

With the bench looking settled now, I’ll buzz through the projections for Eric Chavez, Andruw Jones, Eduardo Nunez, Chris Dickerson, Francisco Cervelli and Gustavo Molina and summarize the team’s position players.

Offense

player	Chavez, Eric	age	34
projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR	BABIP
cairo	176	160	19	39	10	0	5	19	1	1	13	.244	.301	.400	.306	19	69	-2	4	.279
marcel	265	241	26	57	14	1	5	27	2	1	19	.237	.291	.365	.288	25	61	-6	3	.281
oliver	239	219	23	51	12	0	4	24	1	0	17	.233	.285	.342	.278	21	57	-7	1	.294
pecota	450	405	46	90	20	1	10	43	2	1	41	.222	.293	.351	.287	41	59	-12	4	.269
zips	123	112	11	23	6	0	2	13	0	0	9	.205	.260	.313	.255	9	46	-6	-1	.250
average*	251	227	25	52	12	0	5	25	1	1	20	.229	.289	.355	.285	23	59	-7	2	.277
2010	126	114	10	27	8	0	1	10	0	0	8	.237	.278	.333	.268	10	53	-4	0	.306

player	Jones, Andruw	age	34
projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR	BABIP
cairo	386	333	47	74	16	1	16	51	6	2	44	.222	.313	.420	.320	45	76	0	8	.248
marcel	397	343	46	75	17	1	16	46	7	2	47	.219	.315	.414	.319	46	76	0	8	.247
oliver	394	338	48	74	15	1	18	53	5	2	51	.219	.325	.429	.331	48	80	2	10	.246
pecota	455	390	55	88	17	1	21	55	7	2	56	.226	.327	.436	.334	57	82	3	13	.251
zips	337	290	40	64	13	1	16	46	6	2	41	.221	.320	.438	.330	42	81	2	9	.244
average*	394	339	47	75	16	1	17	50	6	2	48	.221	.320	.427	.327	48	79	1	9	.247
2010	328	278	41	64	12	1	19	48	9	2	45	.230	.341	.486	.357	47	93	8	15	.239

player	Nuñez, Eduardo	age	26
projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR	BABIP
cairo	528	494	61	127	22	2	7	48	19	7	26	.257	.295	.352	.287	49	60	-13	5	.285
marcel	226	203	32	56	10	1	6	27	7	1	19	.276	.341	.424	.336	29	83	2	10	.303
oliver	526	489	56	132	21	2	7	49	13	5	25	.270	.302	.364	.293	50	62	-11	7	.305
pecota	496	465	53	126	21	2	7	49	15	5	20	.271	.300	.370	.294	49	64	-10	8	.302
zips	608	570	64	153	26	2	8	52	21	8	29	.268	.304	.363	.295	59	63	-13	9	.297
average*	477	444	53	119	20	2	7	45	15	5	24	.267	.305	.368	.296	47	64	-9	8	.297
2010	559	514	67	148	26	3	5	57	28	5	35	.288	.336	.379	.319	65	76	-1	19	.316

player	Molina, Gustavo	age	29
projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR	BABIP
cairo	243	225	23	54	12	0	6	26	1	1	12	.240	.280	.373	.284	22	60	-6	6	.271
marcel	204	183	24	47	9	1	5	22	3	1	17	.257	.324	.399	.319	23	74	-1	9	.294
oliver	355	327	31	65	14	0	10	38	0	0	16	.199	.237	.333	.247	25	45	-17	1	.231
pecota	450	417	43	92	17	2	12	45	1	0	21	.221	.260	.357	.268	37	53	-16	6	.248
zips	197	185	17	42	9	0	5	20	0	1	8	.227	.259	.357	.267	16	51	-7	2	.253
average*	290	267	28	60	12	1	8	30	1	1	15	.224	.266	.360	.273	24	55	-9	5	.255
2010	126	119	13	28	5	0	8	18	0	0	7	.235	.278	.479	.320	16	81	1	7	.233

player	Dickerson, Chris	age	29
projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR	BABIP
cairo	223	194	26	50	10	2	4	18	7	2	23	.259	.337	.392	.323	26	77	0	5	.329
marcel	283	248	32	64	12	3	5	22	9	2	29	.258	.336	.391	.323	34	77	0	6	.326
oliver	382	328	47	80	14	4	7	34	12	5	44	.244	.330	.375	.314	42	72	-3	5	.340
pecota	450	386	53	96	18	3	10	45	20	6	54	.249	.340	.389	.325	54	78	1	10	.326
zips	326	282	40	67	12	4	7	26	16	6	36	.238	.322	.383	.312	37	74	-2	5	.321
average*	333	288	40	71	13	3	7	29	13	4	37	.248	.333	.385	.319	39	76	-1	6	.329
2010	161	140	23	39	7	2	3	12	10	1	15	.279	.335	.421	.328	21	87	2	6	.375

player	Cervelli, Francisco	age	25
projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR	BABIP
cairo	292	256	29	65	12	1	3	32	2	2	24	.254	.325	.344	.302	28	63	-6	8	.286
marcel	369	320	38	88	15	2	4	43	3	3	33	.275	.341	.372	.318	40	71	-3	15	.308
oliver	355	310	35	77	14	1	3	29	2	1	30	.248	.318	.329	.293	33	60	-9	8	.300
pecota	450	397	49	101	18	2	5	40	3	1	37	.254	.322	.348	.301	44	64	-9	13	.294
zips	310	269	25	69	12	2	2	29	1	3	26	.257	.326	.338	.299	29	61	-7	8	.298
average*	355	310	35	80	14	2	3	35	2	2	30	.258	.327	.347	.303	35	64	-7	11	.298
2010	317	266	27	72	11	3	0	38	1	1	33	.271	.350	.335	.312	32	66	-5	11	.305

wOBA: Weighted on-base average (does not include SB/CS)
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAA: BR above an average player in projected playing time (adjusted for park, but not for position)
BRAR: BR above a replacement level player (adjusted for park and position)
2010: Un-adjusted 2010 performance

None of those projections inspires much confidence, except maybe Dickerson’s. In the context of a backup catcher there’s also nothing wrong with that Cervelli projection either I guess.

I suppose you can hope that better health lets Chavez exceed his projection, and that platooning lets Jones be a bit better on a rate basis, and that Nunez’s tools mean he can beat that projection, but really, the Yankees need their starters to stay reasonably healthy, which I think we already knew.

CAIRO has the Yankees projected as scoring around 821 runs, using this basic depth chart.

player	pos	pa	outs	br	rs
Derek Jeter	ss	600	403	75	-6
Nick Swisher	rf	600	400	84	2
Mark Teixeira	1b	625	403	99	5
Alex Rodriguez	3b	550	357	89	-3
Robinson Cano	2b	625	422	95	0
Jorge Posada	dh	500	331	70	0
Curtis Granderson	cf	575	390	78	4
Russell Martin	c	500	333	60	2
Brett Gardner	lf	550	360	68	11
starters		5125	3399	718	15

bench	pos	pa	outs	br	rs
Andruw Jones	of	247	175	29	0
Francisco Cervelli	c	200	141	19	0
Eric Chavez	3B	200	144	21	0
Eduardo Nuñez	if	200	147	18	0
Jesus Montero	c	130	93	16	0
bench		977	701	103	0
team		6102	4100	821	15

br are linear weights batting runs, and rs are estimated defensive runs saved compared to average. I’ve purposely set the bench to average because I don’t know that projecting defense for part-time players who may play multiple positions makes any sense. We can probably figure that Jesus Montero will be below average and that Eric Chavez should be decent.

The same depth chart with the other projection systems plus CAIRO average out to about 812 runs scored. That’s the second highest total projected runs scored in baseball behind Boston, and it’s the best total if you account for park. So barring major injury, the offense should do its part, which I think we already knew. I’ll include the defense with the pitching wrap-up.

--Posted at 8:15 am by SG / 48 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

How Unlucky Were Some of the Yankees’ Hitters in 2010?

In my Derek Jeter 2011 projection post I mentioned his xBABIP (expected batting average on balls in play)and what it might mean going forward. Moshe Mandel of The Yankee Analysts e-mailed me to tell me about a spreadsheet available at the Hardball Times that calculates xBABIP. What’s nice about this spreadsheet is it does account for many of the factors that explain the variance in skill for players and their BABIP.

BABIP was better explained as a function all batted-ball types and ratios with speed/power/strikeout considerations.

So I figured I’d see what it said about Jeter in 2010, which then led me to figuring I might as well run it for the rest of the Yankee starters since we are hoping for bigger years from Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira and hoping we don’t see severe drop-offs from Brett Gardner and Nick Swisher.

player	team	pa	babip	br	xbabip	xbr	dbr	-2 Std	-1 Std	1 Std	2 Std
Derek Jeter	Yankees	739	.307	82	.342	93	11	.317	.330	.355	.367
Alex Rodriguez	Yankees	595	.274	88	.305	95	7	.278	.291	.318	.332
Mark Teixeira	Yankees	712	.268	107	.295	114	7	.271	.283	.307	.320
Curtis Granderson	Yankees	528	.277	69	.308	76	6	.279	.293	.322	.336
Jorge Posada	Yankees	451	.287	63	.322	69	6	.290	.306	.338	.354
Brett Gardner	Yankees	569	.340	71	.349	73	2	.320	.335	.363	.378
Francisco Cervelli	Yankees	317	.316	33	.314	32	0	.276	.295	.333	.351
Robinson Cano	Yankees	696	.326	117	.310	112	-5	.285	.298	.323	.336
Nick Swisher	Yankees	635	.335	98	.305	91	-7	.279	.292	.319	.332

babip: batting average on balls in play.
br: linear weights batting runs (does not include GDP or SB)
xbabip: expected batting average on balls in play
xbr: linear weights batting runs adjusted for xBABIP
dbr: xbr minus br

A postive dBR means a player would have been better if they hit to their xBABIP.

This looks about right to me. If the Yankees had hit to their xBABIP instead of their BABIP in 2010 they’d have scored about 28 more runs. In theory this means we can probably expect slightly worse years out of Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher and better years out of almost everyone else, with the caveat that a single season’s xBABIP should only be part of the player’s projection.

I’m also encouraged to see Posada’s xBABIP at .322, since it means CAIRO’s 2011 projection of .319 isn’t completely crazy.

--Posted at 8:19 am by SG / 44 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Looking Ahead To 2011 - Jorge Posada

Jorge Posada is heading into the final year of his contract and what may be the final year of his career. For the first time since 1998, he won’t be the Yankees’ starting catcher, as post-concussion symptoms and a continued defensive decline have caused the Yankees to move him to DH.

Here’s how Posada projects heading into 2011.

Offense

projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR	BABIP
bill_james	414	361	49	94	22	0	16	60	2	1	53	.260	.355	.454	.355	58	91	9	12	.310
fans	501	438	69	117	25	1	18	76	1	0	63	.267	.369	.452	.364	71	92	12	15	.320
cairo	405	350	48	94	21	1	15	59	2	1	46	.269	.356	.463	.356	57	91	9	11	.319
marcel	469	409	51	103	24	1	17	62	3	1	51	.252	.339	.440	.341	61	84	5	8	.295
oliver	433	377	50	93	19	1	15	55	1	1	48	.247	.335	.422	.333	53	80	2	5	.295
pecota	450	389	57	99	22	0	16	54	2	1	53	.254	.349	.434	.345	59	85	6	8	.299
zips	404	348	41	86	20	1	17	56	2	1	48	.247	.344	.457	.349	55	88	7	10	.290
average*	432	375	49	95	21	1	16	57	2	1	49	.254	.344	.443	.345	57	86	6	8	.299
2010	451	383	49	95	23	1	18	57	3	1	59	.248	.357	.454	.356	63	91	10	13	.287

Despite approaching 40, Posada’s still been a a better than average hitter. Of course, his bat is more valuable when it’s compared to a catcher than it is when compared to a DH. The average catcher is about 12.5 runs worse than an average hitter over a full season. An average DH generally needs to be at least that much better than an average hitter, and perhaps more than that if you want to account for the fact that they provide no defensive value. The standard position-adjustment for a DH is -17.5 runs. So over a full season, a DH who is about 30 runs better than an average defensive catcher offensively is probably not any more valuable relative to position.
Aside from CAIRO, this doesn’t set a good tone for how much Posada’s going to help the Yankees in 2011, but it may not be as dire as it seems on first blush.

There was a discussion in this post at The Book Blog about when a catcher can no longer catch. In it, Tango Tiger references research he’s done that shows that a catcher’s offense will improve by about a win if they’re not catching. I think the actual research was in one of the Hardball Times Annuals, but I can’t find a direct link to it. We don’t know if this is what will happen for Posada obviously, but we can hope. CAIRO is regressing Posada’s offense towards DH, which is the primary reason it appears so bullish on Posada. I don’t think the other projections have done anything in that regard. Then again, wear and tear is cumulative, and the fact that Posada won’t be catching in 2011 doesn’t change the fact that he caught a lot of games in his career and a lot of the damage has already been done.

Here are Posada’s CAIRO percentile forecasts.

cairo %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR
80%	425	368	54	104	24	2	18	66	3	2	52	.282	.378	.503	.383	67	103	16	19
65%	413	357	51	98	23	1	16	62	2	1	49	.275	.367	.483	.369	62	97	12	15
Baseline	405	350	48	94	21	1	15	59	2	1	46	.269	.356	.463	.356	57	91	9	11
35%	365	315	40	80	17	0	12	50	1	0	38	.255	.333	.423	.330	45	79	1	4
20%	324	280	33	67	13	0	9	41	0	0	31	.241	.310	.383	.303	34	68	-4	-2

Given how optimistic the baseline is in relation to the other projections, that may be about as much as we can realistically hope for.

Base Running

Posada is a brilliant baserunner, who combines blazing speed with uncanny instincts.

Year	ga_opps	ga_r	aa_opps	aa_r	ha_opps	ha_r	oa_opps	oa_r	total_opps	total_r
2007	34	-1	52	-1	57	-4	361	-2	504	-8
2008	10	0	10	0	14	-1	87	0	121	-1
2009	20	0	29	-1	34	-6	177	-1	260	-8
2010	16	0	29	-1	29	-4	252	-1	326	-6
Proj	18	0	28	-1	30	-4	207	-1	283	-6

ga_opps: opportunities to advance on grounders
ga_r: run value of advances on grounders
aa_opps: opportunites to advance on air outs
aa_r: run value of advances on air outs
ha_opps: opportunites to advance on hits
ha_r: run value of advances on hits
oa_opps: opportunites to adance on other (wild pitches, passed balls, etc.,)
oa_r: run value of advances on other
total_opps: ga + aa + ha + ao opportunities
total_r: total run value of non-SB base running, compared to average

Posada’s such a good baserunner that he cannot be measured by the limited tools we currently have at our disposal. When we get BaseRunning F/X we may be able to better understand him.

Defense

I suppose I can throw his defensive projection at catcher up for the hell of it.

Player	Jorge Posada
Year	Inn	DRS	DRS/120
2006	1050	4	4
2007	1111	-6	-6
2008	234	-4	-18
2009	785	-1	-1
2010	660	-5	-8
avg	768	-2	-3
w_avg	694	-3	-5

DRS: Defensive runs saved compared to average using John Dewan’s plus/minus system
zRS: Runs saved compared to average using Chris Dial’s zone rating system
uRS: Runs saved compared to average using UZR
tRS: Runs saved compared to average using Total Zone
rARM: Runs saved with arm compared to average (OF only)
avg: average from 2006-2010
w_avg: weighted average from 2006-2010 (5/4/3/2/1 weight)

This is only looking at SB/CS. If you add in the passed balls and wild pitches I’m fairly certain you can double the negative numbers. It shouldn’t be an issue in 2011, as I’d be surprised to see Posada catching in anything other than emergency situations.

The nice thing about having Posada around as an emergency catcher is it should give the Yankees the flexibility to use Jesus Montero as a DH or pinch-hitter if necessary without the fear of not having a backup catcher should something happen to Russell Martin. It seems like the Yankees are extremely concerned about Posada’s concussions though, so I am not sure how much they’d be willing to use him there.

With Andy Pettitte’s retirement, we’re down to Posada, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera from the 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2009 World Series Champion Yankees. Unless Posada has a monster year, I’d be surprised to see him back in 2012, at least as a Yankee. Unfortunately, at this point he looks like a long shot for the Hall of Fame, but if he can tack on a few productive years as a DH that might change.

--Posted at 3:55 pm by SG / 46 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Looking Ahead To 2011 - Alex Rodriguez

If you go by Baseball Reference’s version of wins above replacement(WAR), Alex Rodriguez had what was probably the worst full season of his career in 2010.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	PA	WAR
1996	20	SEA	AL	677	9.4
1997	21	SEA	AL	638	4.8
1998	22	SEA	AL	748	7.9
1999	23	SEA	AL	572	4.7
2000	24	SEA	AL	672	11.0
2001	25	TEX	AL	732	8.0
2002	26	TEX	AL	725	8.2
2003	27	TEX	AL	715	7.7
2004	28	NYY	AL	698	6.2
2005	29	NYY	AL	715	8.4
2006	30	NYY	AL	674	4.2
2007	31	NYY	AL	708	9.9
2008	32	NYY	AL	594	5.4
2009	33	NYY	AL	535	3.9
2010	34	NYY	AL	595	2.9

Given his age and his hip injury that’s not surprising. However, the degree of his drop was larger than projected. Rodriguez’s average projection heading into 2010 was for a line of .285/.387/.543 which would have been worth about 48 runs above replacement level. A slightly lower run environment combined with his worse than expected hitting meant he was in fact only worth about 37 runs above replacement level offensively.

So of course, the question is why.

Season	BIP	BABIP	GB%	FB%	LD%	HR/FB	BB/PA	K/PA
2007	441	.309	44.0%	44.9%	18.1%	27.3%	16.3%	20.6%
2008	378	.328	44.2%	42.1%	19.0%	22.0%	12.7%	22.9%
2009	329	.303	45.0%	40.1%	21.3%	22.7%	18.0%	21.8%
2010	420	.274	47.6%	41.7%	14.3%	17.1%	11.3%	18.8%
Career	3581	.318	42.2%	40.0%	17.8%	23.1%	12.7%	20.8%

BABIP: Batting average on balls in play
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that were ground balls
FB%: Percentage of balls in play that were fly balls
LD%: Percentage of balls in play that were line drives
HR/FB: Home runs per fly ball

The .274 BABIP was the lowest of Rodriguez’s career, although he does have seasons of .281 (1999) and .290 (2002) on his ledger. Rodriguez’s line drive percentage plummeted, as did his walk rate. He actually struck out less frequently, but all that meant was he made more outs on balls in play. I think it’s a safe assumption that Rodriguez was not hitting the ball as hard in 2010 as he had prior, although we don’t know if that explains the entire drop in his BABIP and HR/FB.

Another oddity about Rodriguez’s 2010 was his poor hitting against LHP. He’s hit .217/.314/.441 against them compared to .290/.352/.530 vs. RHP in 2010. He actually does have a slight reverse platoon split for his career (.290/.387/.567 compared to vs. LHP .307/.387/.573 vs RHP) but the 2010 performance sure looks like an outlier.

A rebound by Rodriguez is going to be key if the Yankees are going to contend for the postseason in 2011, so let’s look at what the projections think.

Offense

projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR	BABIP
bill_james	621	545	95	155	27	1	35	116	10	4	76	.284	.372	.530	.388	103	108	29	50	.306
fans	590	522	89	149	29	2	31	108	6	2	68	.285	.378	.527	.392	98	108	27	48	.302
cairo	594	510	88	143	27	1	32	116	11	3	69	.280	.370	.525	.384	97	106	26	46	.293
marcel	551	479	74	129	24	1	26	96	10	3	60	.269	.354	.486	.363	81	96	16	35	.289
oliver	562	485	77	131	23	1	29	88	8	3	65	.270	.361	.501	.372	86	99	19	38	.287
pecota	621	533	88	145	25	1	34	93	13	4	75	.272	.370	.514	.381	99	104	25	47	.288
zips	537	459	73	127	23	1	30	103	10	3	63	.277	.369	.527	.383	87	105	23	42	.285
average*	573	493	80	135	24	1	30	99	10	3	66	.274	.365	.511	.377	90	102	22	42	.288
2010	595	522	74	141	29	2	30	125	4	3	59	.270	.341	.506	.360	88	96	17	37	.274

The projections do expect a better Rodriguez in 2011, albeit only slightly better. At age 35, the clock isn’t on his side.

Here are his CAIRO percentile forecasts.

cairo %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR
80%	624	536	99	159	32	2	38	130	14	4	79	.297	.398	.575	.416	115	120	40	62
65%	606	520	93	150	29	1	35	122	12	4	73	.289	.384	.550	.400	105	113	32	54
Baseline	594	510	88	143	27	1	32	116	11	3	69	.280	.370	.525	.384	97	106	26	46
35%	535	459	75	123	22	0	26	100	8	2	58	.269	.351	.490	.361	79	95	15	34
20%	475	408	63	105	17	0	21	84	6	1	49	.257	.331	.455	.338	62	85	6	23

I’m not sure how feasible it is to think Rodriguez can achieve the upper end of those forecasts, so here’s a list of the best seasons by a player aged 35 or older in terms of total linear weights batting runs.

Rank	playerID	yearID	teamID	lgID	Age	BR
1	bondsba01	2001	SFN	NL	37	185
2	bondsba01	2004	SFN	NL	40	173
3	bondsba01	2002	SFN	NL	38	169
4	mcgwima01	1998	SLN	NL	35	163
5	ruthba01	1931	NYA	AL	36	158
6	ruthba01	1930	NYA	AL	35	157
7	mcgwima01	1999	SLN	NL	36	142
8	bondsba01	2003	SFN	NL	39	140
9	speaktr01	1923	CLE	AL	35	139
10	willite01	1957	BOS	AL	39	137
11	bondsba01	2000	SFN	NL	36	134
12	palmera01	1999	TEX	AL	35	133
13	sheffga01	2003	ATL	NL	35	133
14	ruthba01	1932	NYA	AL	37	132
15	walkela01	2001	COL	NL	35	131
16	thompsa01	1895	PHI	NL	35	129
17	martied01	1998	SEA	AL	35	125
18	martied01	2000	SEA	AL	37	125
19	galaran01	1996	COL	NL	35	124
20	palmera01	2001	TEX	AL	37	124
21	lajoina01	1910	CLE	AL	36	122
22	galaran01	1997	COL	NL	36	122
23	odoulle01	1932	BRO	NL	35	122
24	molitpa01	1993	TOR	AL	37	121
25	fournja01	1925	BRO	NL	36	120
26	evansdw01	1987	BOS	AL	36	120
27	galaran01	1998	ATL	NL	37	120
28	gehrilo01	1938	NYA	AL	35	120
29	broutda01	1894	BLN	NL	36	119
30	aaronha01	1971	ATL	NL	37	119
31	molitpa01	1991	ML4	AL	35	119
32	aaronha01	1969	ATL	NL	35	119
33	palmera01	2000	TEX	AL	36	118
34	palmera01	2002	TEX	AL	38	118
35	mizejo01	1948	NY1	NL	35	118
36	jonesch06	2007	ATL	NL	35	118
37	musiast01	1955	SLN	NL	35	117
38	willite01	1954	BOS	AL	36	117
39	gehrich01	1938	DET	AL	35	117
40	fournja01	1924	BRO	NL	35	117
41	thomeji01	2006	CHA	AL	36	117
42	thomafr04	2003	CHA	AL	35	116
43	gonzalu01	2003	ARI	NL	36	116
44	wheatza01	1925	BRO	NL	37	116
45	martied01	1999	SEA	AL	36	116
46	gwynnto01	1997	SDN	NL	37	115
47	henrito01	1948	NYA	AL	35	115
48	connoro01	1892	PHI	NL	35	115
49	gosligo01	1936	DET	AL	36	114
50	anderbr01	1999	BAL	AL	35	113
51	wheatza01	1924	BRO	NL	36	113
52	musiast01	1957	SLN	NL	37	113
53	sheffga01	2004	NYA	AL	36	113
54	rosepe01	1976	CIN	NL	35	113
55	aloumo01	2004	CHN	NL	38	113
56	delahed01	1902	WS1	AL	35	113
57	jeterde01	2009	NYA	AL	35	113
58	cobbty01	1921	DET	AL	35	113
59	oliveal01	1982	MON	NL	36	113
60	bagweje01	2003	HOU	NL	35	112
61	mcraeha01	1982	KCA	AL	37	111
62	brettge01	1988	KCA	AL	35	111
63	schmimi01	1986	PHI	NL	37	111
64	ruthba01	1933	NYA	AL	38	111
65	vernomi01	1953	WS1	AL	35	111
66	dimagjo01	1950	NYA	AL	36	111
67	greenha01	1946	DET	AL	35	110
68	cobbty01	1922	DET	AL	36	110
69	musiast01	1956	SLN	NL	36	110
70	mcgrifr01	1999	TBA	AL	36	110
71	stoveha01	1891	BSN	NL	35	109
72	averiea01	1937	CLE	AL	35	109
73	downibr01	1987	CAL	AL	37	109
74	molitpa01	1996	MIN	AL	40	109
75	johnsbo01	1944	BOS	AL	39	109
76	sheffga01	2005	NYA	AL	37	109
77	cobbty01	1924	DET	AL	38	108
78	willicy01	1924	PHI	NL	37	108
79	walkela01	2002	COL	NL	36	108
80	rosepe01	1979	PHI	NL	38	107
81	aaronha01	1970	ATL	NL	36	107
82	winfida01	1988	NYA	AL	37	107
83	bicheda01	1998	COL	NL	35	107
84	posadjo01	2007	NYA	AL	36	107
85	careyma01	1925	PIT	NL	35	107
86	jonesch06	2008	ATL	NL	36	107
87	oneilpa01	1998	NYA	AL	35	106
88	molitpa01	1992	ML4	AL	36	106
89	mayswi01	1966	SFN	NL	35	106
90	willite01	1956	BOS	AL	38	105
91	willicy01	1922	PHI	NL	35	105
92	collied01	1924	CHA	AL	37	105
93	surhobj01	1999	BAL	AL	35	105
94	delgaca01	2008	NYN	NL	36	104
95	martied01	2001	SEA	AL	38	104
96	wagneho01	1912	PIT	NL	38	104
97	gracema01	1999	CHN	NL	35	104
98	willicy01	1923	PHI	NL	36	104
99	schmimi01	1985	PHI	NL	36	104
100	giambja01	2006	NYA	AL	35	104
101	schmimi01	1987	PHI	NL	38	104
102	biggicr01	2001	HOU	NL	36	104
103	bicheda01	1999	COL	NL	36	104
104	richaha01	1890	BSP	PL	35	104
105	heltoto01	2009	COL	NL	36	104
106	sauerha01	1952	CHN	NL	35	103
107	walketi01	1922	PHA	AL	35	103
108	speaktr01	1925	CLE	AL	37	103
109	ryanji01	1898	CHN	NL	35	103
110	sauerha01	1954	CHN	NL	37	102
111	suzukic01	2009	SEA	AL	36	102
112	joosted01	1951	PHA	AL	35	102
113	schmimi01	1984	PHI	NL	35	102
114	averiea01	1938	CLE	AL	36	102
115	hackst01	1945	CHN	NL	36	102
116	winfida01	1992	TOR	AL	41	102
117	gonzalu01	2002	ARI	NL	35	102
118	rosepe01	1977	CIN	NL	36	101
119	willite01	1958	BOS	AL	40	101
120	kentje01	2005	LAN	NL	37	101
121	ibanera01	2008	SEA	AL	36	101
122	terrybi01	1934	NY1	NL	36	101
123	aloumo01	2001	HOU	NL	35	101
124	thornan01	1984	CLE	AL	35	101
125	yastrca01	1977	BOS	AL	38	101
126	palmera01	2003	TEX	AL	39	100
127	finlest01	2000	ARI	NL	35	100
128	burnije01	2004	COL	NL	35	100
129	jacksre01	1982	CAL	AL	36	100
130	cobbty01	1925	DET	AL	39	100

There are 8674 age 35 or older seasons in MLB history. Of those seasons, only 130 of them have been worth at least 100 batting runs. It’s probably safe to say that eight of the top 12 seasons have a very good probability of having been chemically enhanced.

A few Yankees of recent vintage snuck into this list, including 2004 Gary Sheffield (#54 overall), 2009 Derek Jeter (#57), 2005 Sheffield (#76), 2007 Jorge Posada (#84), 1998 Paul O’Neill (#87) AND 2006 Jason Giambi (#100). Johnny Damon 2009 (#161) and Johnny Damon 2008 (#205) just missed the cut.

Of course, when you talk about Alex Rodriguez, you’re probably talking about one of the best players in baseball history. I’m pretty comfortable that Rodriguez is a better hitter right now than any of those recent vintage Yankees were at the time they had their big 35+ seasons. While it’s not the most likely scenario, he’s as good a bet as anyone to have a monster year at age 35, although achieving the heights of top of this list seems unlikely unless he gets into Giambi’s stash of super-secret designer undetectable steroids.

Base Running

Year	ga_opps	ga_r	aa_opps	aa_r	ha_opps	ha_r	oa_opps	oa_r	total_opps	total_r
2007	27	0	54	1	58	2	370	0	509	4
2008	19	0	38	0	41	0	290	1	388	2
2009	18	1	42	0	29	-2	239	0	328	-2
2010	21	0	27	0	36	-1	278	0	362	-1
Proj	20	0	36	0	37	-1	278	0	372	0

Since injuring his hip, Rodriguez has not been able to provide much value on the basepaths in both SB and non-SB baserunning. If he’s healthier he may be able to reverse that trend, but I’m not sure that we want him being overly aggressive on the bases if it means a greater risk of injury.

Defense

Player	Rodriguez, Alex
Pos	3B
year	G	Inn	DRS	zRS	uRS	tRS	avg	rARM
2006	151	1287	-12	-8	-14	-7	-10	0
2007	154	1330	1	1	-2	1	0	0
2008	131	1126	-2	-1	-2	-2	-2	0
2009	116	974	-8	-6	-6	-6	-7	0
2010	124	1029	-3	-2	-2	-6	-3	0
avg	135	1149	-5	-3	-5	-4	-4	0
w_avg	129	1091	-4	-3	-4	-4	-4	0

Rodriguez’s defense just doesn’t rate all that well no matter what metric you look at. It’s kind of tough to judge 3B defense visually because of how hard some of the chances they have to field are hit, but somewhere in the -5 range for Rodriguez seems about right. If he has better lateral movement as he moves further away from his hip surgery he can probably be better than that, but I wouldn’t expect him to rate better than average at any point going forward.

Despite his age, I think the gap between what Rodriguez projects to do and what he could do is bigger than that of any other Yankee position player. Like just about every player in history, he has come into spring training in great shape. On a more serious note, he has looked very good so far, not that it tells us much.

I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a monster year, and if he does that the Yankees will have as good of a shot as anyone of being the team that will lose to Philadelphia in the World Series.

--Posted at 7:13 pm by SG / 51 Comments | - (0)

Monday, February 28, 2011

Looking Ahead To 2011 - Jesus Montero

On a team loaded with players who are past their peak, there may not be a more intriguing player than Jesus Montero. He’s listed as one of the top 10 prospects in baseball in just about every list I’ve seen.

At the tender age of 20, Montero has stomped through the minors, hitting a collective .314/.371/.511 in his first four professional seasons and now sits on the cusp of making his MLB debut after a strong season in AAA in 2010, where he hit .289/.353/.517 in 504 PA.

That’s an impressive overall line, especially for someone who may be able to play catcher at the MLB level, but hidden in the line is the way Montero finished the year. Here are Montero’s 2010 splits by month.

month	pa	ab	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	k	gdp	babip	avg	obp	slg	woba	gb%	ld%	fb%	pop%	hr/fb
4	80	73	18	4	0	2	7	13	4	.276	.247	.313	.384	.320	51.7%	18.3%	26.7%	3.3%	11.1%
5	90	79	15	5	1	1	10	16	7	.222	.190	.278	.316	.268	45.3%	20.3%	29.7%	4.7%	4.5%
6	105	99	28	9	2	3	6	21	0	.338	.283	.324	.505	.362	39.0%	20.8%	32.5%	7.8%	9.7%
7	93	76	26	7	0	5	14	16	2	.368	.342	.441	.632	.450	38.7%	22.6%	37.1%	1.6%	20.8%
8	101	92	31	5	0	7	8	17	0	.348	.337	.386	.620	.423	46.1%	18.4%	31.6%	3.9%	25.9%
9	27	27	10	4	0	3	0	6	1	.389	.370	.370	.852	.500	38.1%	23.8%	33.3%	4.8%	37.5%
4-5	170	152	33	9	1	3	17	29	11	.248	.217	.294	.349	.293	50.4%	20.2%	29.4%	4.2%	7.5%
6-9	326	294	95	25	2	18	28	60	3	.353	.323	.380	.605	.417	43.1%	21.8%	35.1%	4.9%	20.0%

babip: Batting average on balls in play
gb%: Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
ld% Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
fb%: Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
pop%: Percentage of batted balls that were infield pop ups
hr/fb: Percentage of fly balls that were home runs

Over the last four months of the season, Montero hit .323/.380/.605 in 326 PA. The peripherals in his underlying stats point to some bad luck in April/May and some better luck from June through September, but regardless, Montero was a beast after a slow start.

You can use selective endpoints to pretend someone is better or worse than they are, but as I’ve mentioned before I’m more inclined to see them as genuine signs of development for a minor league player, particularly one at Montero’s age.

Here’s how Montero projects in 2011.

Offense

projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR
bill_james	442	403	54	115	29	1	21	67	0	0	39	.285	.348	.519	.371	69	102	16	38
fans
cairo	508	467	58	122	29	2	18	67	1	1	41	.261	.327	.448	.338	65	83	4	30
marcel
oliver	173	159	23	47	9	0	8	29	0	0	12	.296	.341	.503	.361	25	95	5	13
pecota	480	442	61	125	25	1	18	66	0	0	30	.283	.329	.466	.343	63	86	6	30
zips	598	539	66	149	34	2	28	87	0	0	47	.276	.338	.503	.359	87	95	16	46
average*	440	402	52	111	24	1	18	62	0	0	33	.276	.333	.477	.349	60	89	8	30
2010	504	453	66	131	34	3	21	75	0	0	46	.289	.353	.517	.372	78	100	17	42

There’s very little question about Montero’s bat playing in MLB right now. CAIRO is actually the least optimistic system about Montero on a rate basis, although that’s because it doesn’t realize he’s a Yankee since he hasn’t played for them yet. Once you account for that, a more realistic CAIRO projection would be something like .500/.600/.800.

Seriously though, that is a tremendous set of offensive projections, particularly for a catcher. According to ZiPS creator Dan Szymborski:

I have 4 catchers offensively in the last 40 years (including minor league translations) at the level of Montero at his age: Bench, Simmons, Carter, and Montero (they show up pretty soon in his comp list).

A full-time Montero would project to be worth almost four wins above a replacement level catcher offensively. Oh, and he’s 21. If the average projection is a true gauge of his current offensive level and he makes the standard gains a player makes in their early to mid-20s, he’d have a realistic chance at being a five wins above replacement level catcher offensively.

Here are Montero’s CAIRO percentile forecasts.

cairo %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAA	BRAR
80%	533	490	69	140	36	4	23	79	2	2	50	.285	.365	.516	.383	85	103	21	47
65%	518	476	63	130	32	3	21	73	2	2	45	.273	.346	.482	.361	74	93	12	38
Baseline	508	467	58	122	29	2	18	67	1	1	41	.261	.327	.448	.338	65	83	4	30
35%	457	420	49	105	24	1	14	57	0	0	34	.249	.308	.413	.315	51	73	-3	20
20%	406	374	40	89	19	0	11	47	0	0	28	.238	.289	.379	.292	39	62	-9	11

Anything less than that 80% projection is unacceptable IMO.

Base Running

I’m going to imagine that Montero’s not much of a base runner, although hopefully he won’t be Posada-level horrific.

Defense

And this is really the biggest question with Montero. Before he wound up on the side of a milk carton, Kyle took a look at Montero’s defense, comparing Montero to his teammates while looking at just about every area that the catcher could possibly impact. His conclusion?

To state the obvious, Montero does an awful job blocking balls in the dirt. His PB rate is nearly three times that of his teammates, and Scranton pitchers are charged with more WP when he’s the catcher, too. Over 130 games, Montero would be expected to give up 14 PB and 28 more WP than his teammates, which would be about 11 runs (7.5 runs below IL average rates).

Montero’s arm, however, has not been quite as poor as expected/advertised. His CS% is a bit below average, but far better than his teammates’ – runners have also run more often on his teammates, though they do run against Montero at a rate far higher than the league average. I don’t doubt that he has a poor arm, but I suspect Scranton pitchers aren’t doing a very good job with baserunners either.

I think I could live with the passed balls and stolen bases assuming Montero improves even a tiny bit, but the biggest concern I have after collecting this data is Montero’s receiving. Pitchers simply don’t throw as many strikes with him catching, and their BB/9 is 0.94 higher while their SO/9 is 0.56 lower. Scranton pitchers have an ERA over half a run worse with Montero behind the dish (and the FIP difference is 0.40 runs, or about 52 runs over 130 games). However bad Montero may be, I don’t believe he’s truly responsible for the whole difference, but the difference is far greater than I expected when I started the process.

Kyle noted that there is the dreaded small sample size issue with his analysis, and also made the point that none of what he founds means Montero can’t improve. I also wonder if some of the limitations in Montero’s game are more apparent when receiving minor league pitchers who may not have the command that MLB pitchers will have. Of course, MLB pitchers throw harder and have nastier pitches which will present a whole new set of challenges.

But frankly, we just don’t know. With Joe Girardi, Tony Pena and Jorge Posada around, the Yankees have close to 5000 MLB games caught worth of potential mentors to Montero, although hopefully he pays less attention to Posada and more to Pena.

Russell Martin is likely to be the primary starter behind the plate at the start of 2011. However, if he underperforms or Montero shows enough offensively and defensively to be a clear upgrade on Martin, Montero will almost certainly get some significant playing time. If he’s the backup to Martin, he will also probably see some time at DH. I’m not sure if they’d consider him playing some first base, and the Yankees may want to avoid overloading him with things to learn right now so it’s probably not something we’ll see in 2011.

This season has a chance to be a very interesting one if Montero and some of the pitching prospects get to show what they can do at the MLB level. There may be some bumps in the road along the way, but it’ll be fun to watch, even if the Yankees fail to make it into the postseason.

Montero wasn’t the big story out of yesterday’s game though.

MLB.com: Betances turns heads with flashy debut

And if it is true that you never get a second chance to make a first impression, at least Betances can rest his head tonight knowing that he made a good one. The 22-year-old struck out the side around a walk, firing a fastball that had the Yankees asking questions.

“Hey,” Curtis Granderson asked a reporter, looking up from his locker and nodding toward Betances. “How fast did they get him?”

The answer, at least according to the YES Network, was up to 97 mph. Pitching the fifth inning of the Yankees’ 7-3 win, the 6-foot-8 Betances struck out Domonic Brown and Ben Francisco before he lost Carlos Ruiz to a walk. Betances came back to fan Wilson Valdez for the third out.

“Pretty good for the first time being out there,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “You kind of want to see how the kids react the first time out and what they do the next couple after that. I’m sure there are some emotions that go in there, some butterflies. There have got to be.”

Betances is probably still a very long shot to make the Opening Day MLB roster, but a few more outings like yesterday’s and he may force himself onto the team.

--Posted at 7:07 am by SG / 83 Comments | - (0)

Monday, February 21, 2011

NJ.com:Carig: Early infractions behind him, Yankees’ Robinson Cano looks to improve on breakout year

TAMPA, Fla. — Robinson Cano apologized for his first error of the season yesterday then went about taking the first steps toward repeating his breakout year. The second baseman reported to camp a day late — he mixed up his days — but participated in the Yankees’ first full-squad workouts.

“I don’t like to be late,” Cano said. “You guys know I’m always on time. I messed up.”

Cano will have plenty of time to make up for his inauspicious beginning.

The 28-year-old hit .319 with 29 homers and ranked as the most productive second baseman in baseball. Cano capped it off by winning the first Gold Glove award of his career.

The article mentions Jorge Posada as a possible backup for Mark Teixiera at 1B too, which I think makes sense. If you can at least spot Posada at 1B and C a few times it gives you more options for DH.

--Posted at 9:38 am by SG / 8 Comments | - (0)

Monday, February 7, 2011

Some of My Thoughts On Andy Pettitte’s Career

After going 67-95 in 1990, the Yankees were rewarded with the first overall pick in the 1991 MLB entry draft. With that pick, they took Brien Taylor, a left-handed pitcher out of a North Carolina high school. Taylor had a rocket arm, consistently hitting the upper 90s and he profiled as a future top of the rotation starter.

After some prolonged negotiations Taylor eventually signed for what was at the time the highest bonus ever paid to a draftee ($1.55M).
In the previous year’s draft, the Yankees drafted Andy Pettitte in the 22nd round, but did not sign him right away. However, by drafting him they were able to hold exclusive negotiating rights with him up until a week before the following draft provided he did not attend a four year college. This allowed them to monitor him through the summer to get a better idea of whether or not they want to sign him. This was known as draft and follow, or DFE (draft, follow, evaluate). Changes in 2007 requiring teams to sign any drafted player by August 15 of the same draft have effectively ended this.

Pettitte improved over the summer, dropping some weight and adding some velocity, and the Yankees eventually signed him a week before the 1991 draft for $80,000.

Because the major league Yankees were so putrid, I was spending a fair amount of time trying to follow what was happening in the minors. It was a lot harder to do back then since we only had carrier pigeons and rotary phones, but I’d trudge down to U.S. News twice a month to grab Baseball America so I could read about the exploits of Ed Martel, Russ Springer, Robert Eenhorn, Hensley Muelens, Kirt Ojala, Kevin Mmahat, Ricky Rhodes(Arthur’s brother), and of course Taylor.

I still remember all those names. I remember reading articles about them and looking up their statistics. I really don’t remember reading anything about Pettitte at the time.
Taylor’s career was effectively ended one night in a fight that ended with him tearing his labrum and dislocating his shoulder.

Meanwhile, Pettitte continued his climb up the minor league ladder, putting up impressive numbers along the way. He started getting some prospect buzz, but he still didn’t seem as highly touted as some of the other pitchers on the farm including Sterling Hitchcock. He would get some mentions on some prospect lists, but he was more of an afterthought. Kind of like a skinny kid from Panama who was moving through the minors around the same time.

Pettitte made his MLB debut on April 29, 1995. He came in to relieve Melido Perez and managed to retire two batters, although he also allowed three hits and two runs, plus one inherited runner to score.

There was a Yankee farmhand named Bob Davidson who pitched in one game in his career. I still remember that game to this day. It was on July 15, 1989, and Davidson came in with the Yankees trailing KC 5-1 in the ninth. He got a groundout, then walked Kevin Seitzer. George Brett followed that with a HR and then two more groundouts ended the inning. And that was the last we saw of Davidson, whose final MLB line was 1 IP and an 18.00 ERA.
So I figured Pettite was basically Bob Davidson part deux, and we’d never see him again.

It turns out, I was really, really wrong.

Pettitte was able to recover from that inauspicious debut and ended his rookie year with solid numbers. The 1995 Yankees won the AL wild card and Pettitte was on the starter in the classic Game 2 of the ALDS against Seattle. It was the first of 42 postseason starts for Pettitte, all but four of which were with the Yankees.

87 different pitchers have started games for the Yankees since 1995, but none started anything even close to Pettitte’s 396.

He was probably the best starter on the Yankees in 1996 and 1997, but aside from that he’s never been the best starter on any of his teams. Mike Mussina, Roger Clemens, David Cone, David Wells, Chien-Ming Wang, Randy Johnson, Hideki Irabu, Javier Vazquez, Ramiro Mendoza, Dwight Gooden, Kenny Rogers, Jaret Wright, Sterling Hitchcock, Jimmy Key, Kevin Brown, Ted Lilly, Jeff Weaver, Jack McDowell, Darrell Rasner, Jose Contreras, Jon Lieber, Carl Pavano, Shawn Chacon, Scott Kamienecki, Snacks Pontoon, Denny Neagle, Kei Igawa, Melido Perez, Aaron Small, Ian Kennedy, Randy Keisler, Al Leiter, Jeff Karstens, Cory Lidle, Dusin Moseley and Brad Halsey either came or left during that time. Many of them overshadowed Pettitte in any single season, but none provided as much overall value to the Yankees.

Only Whitey Ford (438 GS) started more games for the Yankees than Pettitte.

I never really got the sense when I was watching Pettitte that I was watching a great pitcher. He seemed to always be pitching out of trouble, but that was part of his charm. More often than not he did pitch out of it. Conversely, I always felt that Pettitte would keep the Yankees in every game he started, even though every once in a while that didn’t quite happen.

My favorite play in baseball is the strike ‘em out, throw ‘em out double play. I just like the way it changes the whole tenor of an inning. My second favorite play might be when a pitcher picks off a runner trying to steal, something Pettitte excelled at. That’s something else I’ll always remember fondly.

Pettitte took a three-year sojourn to Houston following the 2003 season, but the Yankees soldiered on. They brought in Brown, Vazquez and Lieber to fill out the rotation and made it to the 2004 ALCS, which was unfortunately canceled after game 3. It was tough seeing Pettitte leave, although the draft pick compensation for him signing with the Astros was Phil Hughes so it’s turned out pretty well.

The Yankees brought Pettitte back to shore up a somewhat thin rotation in 2007, and over the past four seasons he gave the Yankees 743 innings of above average pitching, punctuated with eight postseason starts where he went 5-1 with a 2.82 ERA in 51 innings. For his career, Pettitte made 38 postseason starts as a Yankee, and went 18-9 with a 3.79 ERA over 238 innings. He only allowed four unearned runs, so ERA probably underrates how good he was.
So in effect he pitched an extra full season in the playoffs at a level consistent with his career. His reputation as a ‘big game pitcher’ is probably a bit overblown as the team only went 20-18 in those games and he did throw some clunkers, but when the Yankees were winning postseason series, Pettitte was a big part of it much of the time.

I’ve never sat down and tried to actually quantify it, but I’m positive I’ve seen more innings pitched by Pettitte than any other pitcher in baseball. I do know that in games I’ve attended in person I’ve seen more starts by Pettitte than anyone. I’ve seen him pitch games at Yankee Stadium, at Shea Stadium, at Fenway Park, at Progressive Field and at the Rogers Center.

I’ve often consoled myself about the Brien Taylor injury by thinking that I’d have been happy if he ended up having Pettitte’s career.

We’ve been very spoiled as Yankee fans over the past fifteen seasons, because we’ve gotten the chance to see some of the best players in baseball and we’ve got to see our team winning more World Series titles than anyone. That they were able to do it with important contributions from some of the same players who came up through their organization in every single one of these seasons is an amazing thing. Now we’re starting to see some of those players go. It started with Bernie Williams not being brought back after 2006, and now it looks like Pettitte will follow him. It’s a pretty good bet that 2011 will be Jorge Posada’s swan song. We’ll have to see what happens with Mo and Jeter.

I don’t know if Pettitte belongs in the Hall of Fame, and I don’t really feel like thinking about that right now. I just know that whenever I think of Pettitte I’ll remember 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2009, and that will always bring a smile to my face.

--Posted at 9:29 am by SG / 24 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

What If the Yankees Go in 2011 With the 40 Man Roster they Have Right Now?

With it looking like the Yankees contract negotiations with Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera aren’t going to be decided any time soon, and with Andy Pettitte still undecided about a return, I was wondering what would happen in the highly unlikely scenario that the Yankees signed no one and traded for no one and went into the season with the team they have right now.

So here’s a run-through the position players and pitching staff using my 2011 CAIRO projections.

Player	Pos	PA	wOBA	Outs	BR	Def
Gardner, Brett	LF	575	.331	368	73	13
Swisher, Nick	RF	600	.356	386	85	2
Cano, Robinson	2B	625	.369	403	95	0
Teixeira, Mark	1B	624	.382	388	100	3
Rodriguez, Alex	3B	550	.382	345	90	-3
Posada, Jorge	DH	500	.352	322	69	0
Granderson, Curtis	CF	525	.345	348	72	3
Montero, Jesus	C	500	.335	336	64	0
Nunez, Eduardo	SS	475	.286	334	43	-1
Starter Total		4974	.350	3230	690	17
Player	Pos	PA	wOBA	Outs	BR	Def
Cervelli, Francisco	C	275	.303	185	27	-1
Pena, Ramiro	SS	200	.274	142	16	0
Curtis, Colin	RF	175	.295	122	17	-1
Russo, Kevin	LF	175	.286	121	15	0
Laird, Brandon	3B	175	.304	123	18	0
Corona, Reegie	2B	150	.289	104	14	0
Golson, Greg	RF	100	.272	72.8	9	0

Bench Total		1250	.291	870	117	-2
Team Total		6224	.338	4100	807	15

BR: Projected linear weights batting runs
Def: Projected runs saved compared to average defensively.

The offense doesn’t really look that good, projecting to score about 40 fewer runs than last year’s team. I’d also be hesitant about assuming they’re a +15 defense given the uncertainty of Jesus Montero and Eduardo Nunez’s defense.

The pitching staff is actually even worse off right now.

Pitcher	Role	IP	R
Sabathia, C.C.	SP1	210	91
Hughes, Philip	SP2	180	89
Burnett, A.J.	SP3	170	95
Nova, Ivan	SP4	150	94
Moseley, Dustin	SP5	140	84
Brackman, Andrew	SP6	70	46
Noesi, Hector	SP7	60	37
Igawa, Kei	SP8	30	20
Starter Total		1010	555
Pitcher	Role	IP	R
Robertson, David	CL	75	35
Chamberlain, Joba	SU	80	41
Logan, Boone	SU	60	32
Mitre, Sergio	MR	60	35
Sanchez, Romulo	MR	50	31
Pope, Ryan	MR	40	24
Garrison, Steve	MR	40	23
Aceves, Alfredo	LR	25	12
	LR		0
Reliever Total		430	232
Team Total		1440	787

If the Yankees don’t bring back Pettitte or Rivera and don’t sign Cliff Lee, here’s what they may look like. While I doubt Kei Igawa sees any time in MLB, I’m using him as a proxy for sub-replacement level pitching.

If Alfredo Aceves can come back healthy that will help the bullpen some, but it’s still a little ugly.

Adding it up looks like this.

Offense	807
Defense	15
Pitching	787
Pythagenpat W	84.5

Pythagenpat W:Estimated Pythagenpat wins

You can subtract a win from that 84.5 estimate for every ten runs below average Montero and Nunez may be defensively. So if they’re a collective 20 runs worse than average the Yankees would be more like an 82.5 win team.

Thankfully, it’s not very likely that the Yankees will go into 2011 with this team. Can they add the 10+ wins they probably need to put themselves solidly in contention with what’s available to them? That’s the next question.

--Posted at 8:56 pm by SG / 29 Comments | - (0)

Monday, November 15, 2010

How Good Might the 2011 Yankees Be on November 15, 2010?

So now that we have projections to look at, what do they tell us?

First, let’s consider the primary starters who played in 2010 and are still under contract for 2011.

Here are their performances in 2010:

Player	Pos	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BRAR	def	WAR
Robinson Cano	2B	696	200	41	3	29	3	2	57	77	.319	.381	.534	.392	51	-3	4.7
Brett Gardner	LF	564	132	20	7	5	44	8	79	101	.277	.383	.379	.347	25	15	4.1
Nick Swisher	RF	632	163	33	3	29	1	2	58	139	.288	.359	.511	.373	35	2	3.7
Alex Rodriguez	3B	595	141	29	2	30	4	3	59	98	.270	.341	.506	.359	38	-4	3.3
Curtis Granderson	CF	524	115	17	7	24	12	2	53	116	.247	.324	.468	.340	27	5	3.2
Mark Teixeira	1B	712	154	36	0	33	0	1	93	122	.256	.365	.481	.367	28	-1	2.7
Jorge Posada	C	451	95	23	1	18	3	1	59	99	.248	.357	.454	.355	19	-8	1.1
Francisco Cervelli	C	309	72	11	3	0	1	1	33	42	.271	.359	.335	.320	8	-1	0.7
Total		4483													232	4	23.6

And here’s their CAIRO projected performance in 2011:

Player	Pos	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BRAR	Def	WAR
Cano, Robinson	2B	681	192	45	3	26	4	4	44	78	.306	.355	.511	.372	43	0	4.2
Gardner, Brett	LF	504	116	17	6	5	38	7	60	91	.270	.358	.372	.329	14	11	2.5
Swisher, Nick	RF	626	139	32	2	26	2	2	77	135	.260	.354	.470	.357	25	0	2.5
Rodriguez, Alex	3B	594	143	27	1	32	11	3	69	105	.281	.372	.526	.384	41	-3	3.8
Granderson, Curtis	CF	638	143	26	9	25	14	4	68	124	.252	.335	.462	.346	29	3	3.2
Teixeira, Mark	1B	690	162	38	1	33	2	1	87	115	.276	.377	.515	.384	33	3	3.6
Posada, Jorge	DH	412	95	21	1	15	2	1	47	93	.267	.355	.460	.355	17	0	1.7
Cervelli, Francisco	C	292	65	12	1	3	2	2	24	47	.255	.326	.347	.303	5	-1	0.4
		4437													207	13	21.9

BRAR: Linear weights batting runs above replacement level (park and position-adjusted)
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
Def: Projected runs saved defensively compared to average
WAR: Wins above replacement level (BRAR plus Def divided by 10)

The whole replacement level thing gets a little fuzzy here since Posada’s being treated as primarily a catcher in 2010 but as a DH in 2011. So if we ignore position and just look at the seven players, we see that 2010’s collective put up a wOBA of .361 and an OBP of .360 in 4483 PA, and that the 2011 version of those same seven players would project to put up a wOBA of .359 and an OBP of .356. The 2011 version would be about 15 runs worse over a full season, which is a non-trivial, but not a massive down grade.

You may not be aware of this since it’s gone strangely unreported by the media, but Derek Jeter is a free agent. Shocking, huh? Apparently, he has yet to resign with the Yankees and no one is talking about it. This has the potential to be MAJOR.

Player	Pos	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BRAR	Def	WAR
2010 Derek Jeter	SS	738	179	30	3	10	18	5	63	106	.270	.340	.370	.319	22	-14	0.8
2011 CAIRO Jeter	SS	699	181	29	2	13	15	5	63	96	.290	.360	.406	.342	32	-7	2.4

Jeter had a bad year by his standards last year, but his offense was fine for a shortstop, somewhere around 22 runs better than replacement level. The bigger issue with Jeter was how you assessed his defense. UZR thought he was slightly below average, around -5. However, a combination of UZR, zone rating and John DeWan’s plus/minus were much harsher, putting Jeter around -14 defensively and making him effectively only about one win better than replacement level.

I have no idea which is closer to the truth, so even though my spreadsheet says Jeter was less than one win better than replacement level last year, I’m going to say that that was not necessarily true.

Either way, CAIRO expects Jeter to bounce back a bit in 2011 on a rate basis, but it also expects him to play a bit less. Overall it likes his chance for a reasonable rebound.

But what if? What if the Yankee decide that Jeter is asking for too much and decide to let him walk? It won’t happen, but if it did, here’s who they have on hand to replace him.

Player	Pos	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BRAR	Def	WAR
Nunez, Eduardo	SS	528	127	22	2	7	19	7	26	68	.257	.296	.350	.286	6	-1	0.6
Pena, Ramiro	SS	324	72	11	2	3	7	3	20	57	.244	.290	.324	.274	1	3	0.4

So yeah, replacing Jeter with Nunez or Pena looks like a two win down grade in CAIRO.

I suppose we could look at possible free agent SS but there’s really no sense. Jeter will be a Yankee in 2011 and we just have to hope CAIRO knows what it’s doing.

So we’ve effectively covered everything except DH and catcher. Last year’s Yankee DH’s combined for a line of .256/.338/.440, which isn’t really all that good for a position that has no defensive value. CAIRO thinks Jorge Posada will exceed that line, but betting on a 40 year old who’s caught over 1600 games in his career to hit well and stay healthy is probably risky. The Yankees will probably use DH to rest their older regulars a bit as well, so if Posada’s reasonably healthy they should get decent production out of DH.

That leaves catcher. If Posada’s not catching, then it means some combination of Francisco Cervelli, Jesus Montero and Austin Romine may be, unless the Yankees surprise us by going after someone like John Buck.

Player	Pos	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BRAR	Def	WAR
Montero, Jesus	C	508	122	29	2	18	1	1	41	85	.261	.326	.446	.337	24	0	2.4
Cervelli, Francisco	C	292	65	12	1	3	2	2	24	47	.255	.326	.347	.303	5	-1	0.4
Romine, Austin	C	502	112	25	1	10	4	2	26	94	.238	.281	.362	.283	6	0	0.6

Montero’s almost certainly the best offensive player of the bunch, and he should probably be the favorite to being the year as the starting catcher, but his defense may end up being bad enough that he can’t stick there.
Cervelli’s not a horrible catcher, and he profiles as a pretty good backup, but he’s also not someone you want to see starting half the games.

CAIRO doesn’t think Romine’s ready, but who knows with young players?

On the position player side, the Yankees’ only real questions are shortstop and catcher. There isn’t a free agent SS available even comparable to Jeter, so unless they make a bold trade he’ll be back in 2011. John Buck is sort of interesting on the catching side, but if you think Montero is going to be the catcher of the future, you probably don’t commit to him for as long as some other potential suitors might. I guess they can shore up the bench with a RH outfielder too, or bring back Marcus Thames.

So at least as of right now, I get the sense we’re not going to see anything particularly interesting happening on the position player side with this team heading into 2011.

Come on Cliff Lee I guess…

--Posted at 1:43 pm by SG / 36 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, November 14, 2010

2011 Yankee Position Player CAIRO Projections v0.1

Here are the first set of my 2011 CAIRO projections for the Yankees’ position players. I’m still eyeballing the overall projections to make sure there are no egregious errors and double-checking all my aging/park factor/regression formula so these may change slightly, but they appear pretty close to what I’d have expected.

Player	Age	Pos	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BRAR	Def	WAR
Cano, Robinson	29	2B	681	192	45	3	26	4	4	44	78	.306	.355	.511	.372	43	0	4.2
Rodriguez, Alex	36	3B	594	143	27	1	32	11	3	69	105	.281	.372	.526	.384	41	-3	3.8
Teixeira, Mark	31	1B	690	162	38	1	33	2	1	87	115	.276	.377	.515	.384	33	3	3.6
Granderson, Curtis	30	CF	638	143	26	9	25	14	4	68	124	.252	.335	.462	.346	29	3	3.2
Swisher, Nick	31	RF	626	139	32	2	26	2	2	77	135	.260	.354	.470	.357	25	0	2.5
Gardner, Brett	28	OF	504	116	17	6	5	38	7	60	91	.270	.358	.372	.329	14	11	2.5
Jeter, Derek	37	SS	699	181	29	2	13	15	5	63	96	.290	.360	.406	.342	32	-7	2.4
Montero, Jesus	22	C	508	122	29	2	18	1	1	41	85	.261	.326	.446	.337	24	0	2.4
Posada, Jorge	40	DH	412	95	21	1	15	2	1	47	93	.267	.355	.460	.355	17	0	1.7
Nunez, Eduardo	24	SS	528	127	22	2	7	19	7	26	68	.257	.296	.350	.286	6	-1	0.6
Romine, Austin	23	C	502	112	25	1	10	4	2	26	94	.238	.281	.362	.283	6	0	0.6
Miranda, Juan	28	1B	475	104	21	1	17	2	1	44	100	.246	.324	.428	.329	5	0	0.5
Huffman, Chad	26	OF	519	110	23	1	13	3	3	47	108	.239	.320	.378	.312	4	0	0.4
Cervelli, Francisco	25	C	292	65	12	1	3	2	2	24	47	.255	.326	.347	.303	5	-1	0.4
Corona, Reegie	25	2B	523	113	24	2	6	13	3	43	81	.240	.303	.341	.289	4	0	0.4
Pena, Ramiro	26	SS	324	72	11	2	3	7	3	20	57	.244	.290	.324	.274	1	3	0.4
Joseph, Corban	23	SS	541	113	23	5	6	5	7	42	105	.231	.296	.336	.283	3	0	0.3
Thames, Marcus	34	LF	336	76	12	0	16	1	2	27	83	.249	.311	.448	.327	7	-4	0.3
Curtis, Colin	26	OF	483	106	23	2	9	4	3	34	86	.242	.303	.361	.295	-1	-1	-0.1
Laird, Brandon	24	1B	557	125	24	2	19	2	1	34	105	.243	.295	.406	.306	-3	0	-0.3
Golson, Greg	26	OF	518	111	21	4	10	15	5	26	135	.231	.272	.351	.272	-6	1	-0.5
Angelini, Carmen	23	SS	483	98	14	1	6	9	5	27	99	.219	.270	.296	.255	-5	0	-0.5

Defense is projected using an average of Chris Dial’s Zone Rating Runs Saved from Baseball Think Factory, Ultimate Zone Rating and John Dewan’s plus/minus runs saved, both from Fangraphs. Since Sean Smith does his own TotalZone projections as part of his CHONE projections I’ll just wait for those and then add them in as well.

If a player has not played in the majors yet, I didn’t project their defense so they are rated as average. I’m not saying I think Jesus Montero is going to play average defense, I’m saying I have no idea how good or bad his defense will be and I’m not going to try and fudge it.

I do have most of the minor leaguers projected but didn’t include all of them in this table since I’m still looking over the MLEs. Pitchers should be done this week as well, and hopefully the first set of projections for everyone will be out next week.

Anyway, now that we have this we can start to think about where the Yankees’ lineup could use some improvement and what the options are for said improvement, which I’ll start tomorrow.

--Posted at 5:47 pm by SG / 44 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

NY Post: Cashman, Yankees tell Posada he’ll DH next season

ace to face Brian Cashman informed Jorge Posada that he will be the Yankees designated hitter next season, The Post has learned.

Cashman met with Posada in Manhattan this week to tell the veteran to, as usual, prepare to catch, but the team’s first option is to have youngsters Jesus Montero, Francisco Cervelli and Austin Romine compete in spring training for the two primary jobs.

It is quite a risk to team an expensive, mostly veteran staff with such inexperienced catchers. But it is indicative of how much the Yankees believe Posada’s defensive game has slipped in all areas.

It is possible that plans could change if the Yankees use one of the catchers in a trade and/or they feel there is enough budget left to secure a free agent such as John Buck. For now, though, the Yankees are going to hope that Montero, in particular, is advanced enough to handle a significant portion of the catching as a way to begin working the top prospect’s ultra-promising bat into the lineup.

Not sure Posada’s going to hit enough as a DH to make him particularly valuable, but this move makes sense looking out past 2011. It’s sink or swim time for Montero as a catcher with several other interesting options behind him, so throw him in the water and see what happens.

--Posted at 11:17 am by SG / 26 Comments | - (0)

Friday, October 29, 2010

NY Post: Yankees fans want Posada benched

Jorge Posada, benched for an ALCS game this postseason, should get used to it.

In an exclusive online poll conducted by nypost.com, Yankees fans overwhelmingly endorsed hot-shot catching prospect Jesus Montero over Posada behind the plate next season.

Given a choice between the two, fans preferred Montero 68 percent to 32 percent for Posada.

It’s nice to know that NY Post readers are running the Yankees.

--Posted at 12:03 pm by SG / 21 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

NY Daily News: Cliff Lee’s wife says Yankees fans taunted, threw beer at her during ALCS in Bronx

The Yankees’ winter hopes of signing free-agent-to-be Cliff Lee might have taken a hit during the playoffs because of his wife’s experience in the visiting family section at Yankee Stadium.

“The fans did not do good things in my heart,” Kristen Lee told USA Today in Tuesday’s editions. “When people are staring at you and saying horrible things, it’s hard not to take it personal.”

Am I a bad person for hoping that Lee gets lit up like a Christmas tree tomorrow? I mean, I know I’m a bad person for other things, but would that in and of itself make me a bad person if I were not one already?

If the Yankees somehow wind up with Lee, I would bet copious amounts of money that he will lose games in the postseason.

Consider the following:

Split 1: 56.3 IP, 2.88 RA, 2.56 ERA, 3.87 FIP
Split 2: 37 IP, 9.84 RA, 8.33 ERA, 6.99 FIP

If you based any of your expectations for Split 2 on what happened in Split 1, you’d feel awfully disappointed, wouldn’t you?

Small sample size performances do not tell us more than everything a player has done, even if they happen on a larger stage.

So I’d like to thank the cretins who were mean to Mrs. Lee for saving the Yankees a lot of money.

I will leave it as an exercise for the readers to determine what Splits 1 and 2 are.

In an article I found slightly more interesting, Brian Cashman not afraid of tough calls, won’t be emotional with Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada decision

He essentially shrugged at the implied question Monday when asked about the difficulty of dealing with aging stars like Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada.

“We will do what we think is right,” Cashman said. “We’re not afraid to make tough decisions.”

Yay!

What exactly does that mean? Well, let’s dispel the notion that Jeter will be moved to another position next season, something which got a lot of play on the radio Monday.

Boo!

“If you earn the right to hit in a certain spot in the lineup, you earn it,” Cashman said. “If you earn less, you get less. Everybody has to be honest with each other. The game doesn’t lie. When something becomes pretty self-evident, you can be blind to it or you can deal with it.”

This comment was in reference to Jeter remaining the leadoff hitter, but it’s a good approach for a lot of the issues facing the Yankees.

As for Posada, indications from within the organization are that Cashman sees him as mostly a DH at age 40 next season in the final year of his career, with the hope that power-hitting prospect Jesus Montero will be ready to step in to handle much of the catching.

When Cashman was asked if he believes Montero is major-league ready, he said, “I have people who believe he is. He’s going to have to prove that.”

I’m not sure Posada’s enough of a hitter at this point to be an asset as a DH, but I suppose if he can catch once or twice a week he’s still useful.

If Montero provided the exact same offensive value as a catcher that he would as a DH, he’d have to be about 35 runs below average defensively to be better off at DH. Of course, he’d likely hit better and play more often as a DH, so the gap is probably closer to 20-25 runs. So the question with Montero is going to be if he can be 20 runs below average or better defensively.

There have been two seasons where a player who played at least 50 games at catcher was that bad defensively according to Baseball Reference, although obviously a player who was bad enough to be 20 runs below average likely didn’t stay behind the plate long enough to get there.

Jeter and Posada are not likely to embrace any such changes, yet Cashman gave every indication that he won’t let that dictate his decision-making.

“It’s not about not hurting people’s feelings,” was the way he put it.

This is the money quote. But until we see the Yankees actually approach the offseason this way, it’s just talk.

--Posted at 8:50 pm by SG / 131 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, October 23, 2010

Rangers Beat Yankees, Win ALCS 4 - 2

It’s our first reaction as fans to say “our team lost” rather than the other team won. No one should be able to beat our team, they can only beat themselves.

The Rangers beat the Yankees. They outplayed them this series. We can talk about why it happened, but that’s the bottom line, and that’s why they’re going to the World Series and the Yankees are going home. The Rangers outscored the Yankees 39-18 over the six games of the ALCS.

Joe Girardi did not manage a good series IMO. While his biggest flaw prior to this series was a love for the sacrifice bunt which is actually probably not nearly the issue we made it out to be, I refuse to think his strategy of IBB half the Rangers lineup was anything but asinine. Of course, a proper analysis of each situtation when it came up would tell us more, and I’d guess it probably won’t be as bad on paper as it ended up turning out. But that doesn’t make it any less aggravating right now.

As poorly as I thought Girardi managed, to the point where I really don’t care if he is not back next year, the Yankees lost because the Rangers out-hit them and out-pitched them. Although they won CC Sabathia’s two starts, he really didn’t pitch that well. Phil Hughes didn’t pitch well either, obviously, and Andy Pettitte’s gem came in a game where Cliff Lee pitched one of the best games you’ll ever see.

Is it Dave Eiland’s fault that some of the key Yankees didn’t pitch well in 2010 after pitching well in 2009? Or is it the fact that pitching is unpredictable and volatile? Do we blame Eiland for Hughes and Joba Chamberlain having “disappointing” seasons, or do we blame ourselves for setting unrealistic expectations for young pitchers and ignoring the historical fact that the majority of pitching prospects don’t become elite pitchers?

To be honest, I think calling Hughes’s season disappointing is a stretch too, even though it didn’t end well, but that’s a post for another day.

The bullpen didn’t distinguish themselves much in this series either, but most of the damage done came in games the Yankees were already well on their way to losing. Sure, Girardi could have used Mo in games earlier and kept them closer, but I saw nothing from the offense that indicated they would have come back from a 7-3 deficit rather than a 10-3 deficit.

Of course, the offense is as much to blame as the pitching. Give some credit to the Rangers for pitching well, but that doesn’t make the performances by anyone not named Robinson Cano any less frustrating.

I try not to think of any Yankee season where the Yankees don’t win a World Series as a failure, because the odds are against even the best team in baseball in any given year winning the World Series. But when you don’t win your division and have to back into the postseason as the wild card, getting your asses handed to you in the ALCS doesn’t feel like much of an accomplishment to me. I wouldn’t call this season a failure, but I wouldn’t call it an achievement either.

As far as where the Yankees go from here, emotion would tell us to get rid of all the chokers and bring in new blood, Working off emotion is probably stupid though.

The Yankees shouldn’t need to make drastic moves to be in a position to be back in the hunt for the World Series, but they do need to be smart about this offseason, because many of the key players on this team aren’t going to be any better than they are now and some will almost certainly be worse, and adding a few veteran band aids to try and coax another World Series out of them may be as fruitless as it was this year.

I haven’t really thought about who the Yankees should go after in 2011. Obviously most of the talk will be about Cliff Lee, but my first impulse is he alone wouldn’t make this team a clear World Series favorite. I’m also not sure the Yankees will be able to just outbid everyone for him. If Texas decides to try and keep him, they’ll have the advantage of no state income tax in any bid they make for him, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team like the White Sox go after him hard as well.

You also have the questions about who to bring back in 2011. While the idea of letting Girardi and Eiland go seems tempting, it would depend on who would replace them, wouldn’t it? I’m certain no matter who the manager ends up being, he’ll have flaws that we fixate on anyway. Jeter and Mo will obviously be back, but the terms of their returns will be the subject of much conjecture. Do the Yankees eschew Carl Crawford and stick with Brett Gardner, or do they try and trade Gardner for something they can’t get through free agency? Do they promote Jesus Montero to the majors, and if so is it as a catcher or a DH? Does that mean the end of Francisco Cervelli’s reign of terror, or does it mean more Jorge Posada at DH?

Anyway, I don’t feel like thinking about 2011 yet. I’m just going to get very inebriated at this wedding I have to serve in today and forget about baseball for a few days.

--Posted at 6:25 am by SG / 123 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

AJ Burnett’s 2010 Splits by Catcher

C	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	CERA	BB/BF	K/BF
Cervelli	128.7	134	13	57	103	5.18	4.76	4.47	5.18	10.1%	18.2%
Moeller	20.7	19	4	5	15	5.66	4.79	5.57	5.33	5.6%	16.9%
Posada	37.3	51	8	16	27	7.47	7.23	6.23	8.45	9.1%	15.4%

FIP: Fielding independent pitching
CERA: Component ERA

I don’t necessarily think this means anything, but I am not the manager of the Yankees so it doesn’t matter what I think.

--Posted at 12:04 am by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, October 14, 2010

2010 ALCS Preview: Rangers vs. Yankees

Rangers in 3 or 4?

Well, we’re down to two teams in the quest for who gets to lose to the Phillies in the World Series.

The Rangers have returned to the postseason for the first time since 1999 and have won a postseason series for the first time in their history, beating the AL East champion Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS.

The Yankees weren’t even good enough to beat out the Rays for the AL East and instead had to back into the playoffs as the wild card. To put this simply:

A) The Rays are better than the Yankees as evidenced by winning the AL East
B) The Rangers are better than the Rays as evidenced by winning their playoff series against them

Despite this, they are actually going to play the games, so maybe the unexpected will happen.

Here’s how the Rangers’ position player project.

Lineup	Pos	2010 OBP	2010 wOBA	Proj OBP	Proj wOBA	PA	Outs	BR	Def
Elvis Andrus	SS	.335	.296	.310	.309	35	24	3.52	0.2
Michael Young	3B	.331	.336	.340	.341	35	23	4.51	-0.6
Josh Hamilton	CF	.411	.444	.366	.392	35	22	6.06	0.0
Vladimir Guerrero	DH	.346	.361	.355	.374	35	23	5.5	0.0
Nelson Cruz	RF	.372	.405	.343	.374	35	23	5.49	0.5
Ian Kinsler	2B	.380	.357	.352	.357	32	21	4.59	0.2
Mitch Moreland	1B	.360	.362	.319	.316	21	14	2.25	0.1
Bengie Molina	C	.292	.275	.286	.302	20	14	1.85	0.0
Julio Borbon	LF	.304	.287	.314	.297	1	1	0.09	0.0
Andres Blanco	2B	.326	.298	.311	.297	1	1	0.09	0.0
David Murphy	LF	.355	.356	.334	.340	1	1	0.13	0.0
Cristian Guzman	SS	.308	.289	.305	.302	1	1	0.09	0.0
Chris Davis	1B	.279	.267	.286	.319	0	0	0	0.0
Matt Treanor	C	.285	.266	.289	.277	6	4	0.44	0.0
Jorge Cantu	1B	.301	.302	.317	.330	5	3	0.6	0.0

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
PA: Plate appearances
Outs: calculated as (1- Proj OBP) times PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs over series estimate of playing time
Def: Projected defense over series estimate of playing time using an average of DRS, TZ, UZR and ZR

The Rangers offense isn’t great, but they’ve got some pretty good hitters and and a strong defensive team. One thing that they may benefit them is that they project slightly better against LHP.

Vs. L	PA	wOBA	BR	Outs
Elvis Andrus	5.0	.296	0.4	3.4
Michael Young	4.7	.356	0.7	3.0
Josh Hamilton	4.0	.365	0.6	2.6
Vladimir Guerrero	4.0	.391	0.7	2.5
Nelson Cruz	4.0	.387	0.7	2.6
Ian Kinsler	4.0	.378	0.6	2.5
Jorge Cantu	4.0	.340	0.5	2.7
Bengie Molina	4.0	.323	0.5	2.8
Jeff Francoeur	4.0	.331	0.5	2.9
Total	37.7	.350	5.2	25.0
Vs. R	PA	wOBA	BR	Outs
Elvis Andrus	5.0	.278	0.4	3.5
Michael Young	4.5	.335	0.6	3.0
Josh Hamilton	4.0	.413	0.8	2.5
Vladimir Guerrero	4.0	.367	0.6	2.6
Nelson Cruz	4.0	.371	0.6	2.6
Ian Kinsler	4.0	.350	0.5	2.6
Mitch Moreland	4.0	.357	0.6	2.6
Bengie Molina	4.0	.292	0.3	2.9
Julio Borbon	4.0	.301	0.4	2.7
Total	37.5	.339	4.8	25.0

I’m assuming they would play Jeff Francoeur and Jorge Cantu against lefties since they project better than Julio Borbon and Mitch Moreland, but the Rangers may have reasons for not doing that. Even if they don’t, they still project better versus lefties, which is good for them since the Yankees would be starting lefties in four of the potential seven games.

Truth be told, the pitching staff is where the Rangers really shined in 2010. Here’s how they project.

Pitcher	Role	2010 RA	2010 FIP	Proj RA	Proj FIP	IP	R
C.J. Wilson	SP1	3.66	3.59	3.93	3.68	13	5.7
Colby Lewis	SP2	4.04	3.51	4.70	4.03	13	6.8
Cliff Lee	SP3	3.56	2.59	3.75	3.40	15	6.2
Tommy Hunter	SP4	3.87	4.99	5.19	4.98	5	2.9
Neftali Feliz	CL	2.73	2.97	3.51	3.06	4	1.6
Darren O’Day	SU	2.18	3.58	3.26	3.61	4	1.4
Darren Oliver	MR	2.97	2.64	3.41	3.43	4	1.5
Derek Holland	MR	4.71	4.04	5.94	4.63	2	1.3
Alexi Ogando	MR	1.33	3.16	3.75	3.77	2	0.8
Dustin Nippert	MR	4.37	4.95	5.47	4.97	1	0.6

2010/Proj RA: 2010/projected run allowed per nine innings
2010/Proj FIP: 2010/projected Fielding Independent Pitching
IP: Estimated innings pitched in this series
R: Estimated runs allowed in this series (Projected RA divided by nine times IP)

Obviously, we all know about Cliff Lee, the greatest postseason pitcher ever. Lee’s not scheduled to start until Game 3 though, with C.J. Wilson getting the nod in the opener and Colby Lewis following up in Game 2.

Wilson’s a lefty who was primarily a reliever the last few years, but was moved into the rotation this year and did very well. He may not be 3.35 ERA good, but he’s good.

Lewis was a pretty hot prospect a few years ago but put up a 6.71 ERA from 2002-2007 before winding up in Japan, where he pitched for the Hiroshima Carp in 2008 and 2009. Lewis pitched very well there and then made a triumphant return to MLB and put up a very good year. He doesn’t throw as hard as he did when he first came up, but he’s shown an improved slider and better command. His peripherals are in line with his performance too, so he looks like he’s a legitimately good pitcher now.

Cliff Lee has NEVER lost a postseason game. EVER. Think about how amazing that is. No one has every faced Cliff Lee in a postseason game and beaten him. In the entire history of baseball.

Seriously, we know Lee’s good, and the Yankees are probably going to have to beat him at least once if they want a shot at advancing.

I’m not sure if the Rangers will go with Tommy Hunter as their fourth starter, but it could be him or Matt Harrison I guess. Whomever it is, he’ll be better than A.J. Burnett at least.

Here are the Yankees’s position player projections. They’re the same as they were for the ALDS aside from adjusting the playing time to reflect a seven game series.

Lineup	Pos	2010 OBP	2010 wOBA	Proj OBP	Proj wOBA	PA	Outs	BR	Def
Derek Jeter	SS	.339	.322	.361	.346	30	19	3.99	-0.4
Nick Swisher	RF	.357	.370	.353	.359	30	19	4.34	0.1
Mark Teixeira	1B	.366	.369	.372	.388	30	19	5.09	0.2
Alex Rodriguez	3B	.341	.360	.369	.388	30	19	5.09	-0.1
Robinson Cano	2B	.382	.394	.356	.376	30	19	4.77	-0.1
Jorge Posada	C	.358	.358	.361	.367	26	17	3.93	-0.1
Curtis Granderson	CF	.323	.343	.334	.348	25	17	3.37	0.2
Lance Berkman	DH	.368	.350	.381	.384	20	12	3.32	0.0
Brett Gardner	LF	.379	.358	.356	.325	20	13	2.3	0.4
Francisco Cervelli	C	.350	.311	.314	.296	5	3	0.45	0.0
Marcus Thames	DH	.352	.364	.310	.340	16	11	2.05	0.0
Austin Kearns	RF	.351	.336	.335	.326	5	3	0.58	0.0
Ramiro Pena	SS	.256	.237	.296	.274	3	2	0.21	0.0
Greg Golson	RF	.261	.226	.265	.268	1	1	0.07	0.1

There’s really not much I can tell you here that you don’t already know. Expect to see Thames against lefties and Berkman against righties at DH, and I have a hunch that Francisco Cervelli will get a start with Burnett since they had such good chemistry this year.

And the pitching projections, again just adjusted for a seven game series.

Pitcher	Role	2010 RA	2010 FIP	Proj RA	Proj FIP	IP	R
CC Sabathia	SP1	3.48	3.55	3.48	3.39	14	5.4
Phil Hughes	SP2	4.24	4.29	4.56	4.12	12	6.1
Andy Pettitte	SP3	3.63	3.96	4.35	3.97	13	6.3
A.J. Burnett	SP4	5.69	4.81	5.11	4.68	5	2.8
Mariano Rivera	CL	2.10	2.85	2.43	2.77	4	1.1
David Robertson	SU	3.54	3.54	3.97	3.39	4	1.8
Kerry Wood	MR	3.33	4.09	3.99	3.95	4	1.8
Joba Chamberlain	MR	4.58	2.94	4.70	3.94	3	1.6
Boone Logan	MR	2.97	3.73	4.55	4.24	3	1.5
Sergio Mitre	MR	3.91	4.79	5.21	4.52	1	0.6
Dustin Moseley	MR	4.77	5.81	5.88	5.53	0	0.0

Total						63	28.9
						63

The Yankees will go with CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, Andy Pettitte and Burnett in the first four scheduled games, which sets up Sabathia, Hughes and Pettitte to pitch in Games 5-7 if necessary. Expect to see most of the relief innings going to Mo, Kerry Wood, Dave Robertson and Boone Logan primarily, perhaps with some Joba Chamberlain mixed in.

On paper, the Yankees are probably the better team. However, if we factor in the fact that the Rangers are better against LHP and the Yankees are worse against LHP, that narrows the gap some. Since the Rangers did the honorable thing by winning their division, they get home field advantage in this series, which narrows the gap a hair more.

I received an email asking me about this article at Fangraphs by Dave Cameron saying that there was no difference in win probability between Cliff Lee starting Games 1 and 5 versus 3 and 7 and running some simulations to show that it’s false. The only problem is, it’s not false. A team’s probability of winning a series is the sum of their probabilities of winning each game, and the order doesn’t matter, assuming playing time is the same. If you want to argue that starting Lee earlier means you have the potential to use him more later in the series, then I suppose that’s possible, but aside from that, it doesn’t matter which games he starts.

Team	Offense	Defense	Pitching	Pythagenpat	p162
Rangers	35.2	0.4	28.9	.603	98
		VS
Yankees	39.6	0.3	28.9	.647	105

Pythagenpat: Estimated win percentage based on projected offense/defense + pitching, adjusted for home field advantage
p162: Pythagenpat times 162 games (full season win equivalency)
Anyway, based on these depth charts and accounting for HFA, the Rangers look like around a 98 win team and the Yankees look like around a 105 win team. So what happens if they play the ALCS 10,000 times?

Rangers: 45.2%
Yankees: 54.8%

Which is all just a fancy way of saying Rangers in 3.

--Posted at 6:34 pm by SG / 57 Comments | - (0)

Monday, October 4, 2010

How Strong Are the 2010 Yankees Heading Into the Postseason? (Position Player Edition)

Now that the regular season is wrapped up, we can think about how the Yankees stack up in a short series and get a better feel for how they match up against the Twins.

As I tend to beat to death, we need to understand that what the players did in the current season should only be part of our assessment of their true talent level. The random fluctuations that happen during a season can skew our perception of how good or bad a player is. For that reason, I’m going to use projections for the postseason series previews instead of the actual 2010 data.

By doing this, I can:

a) Account for anomalously good or bad performances that are not likely repeatable.
b) Acount for the fact that the team that played over the 162 games is not the team that will be playing in a short series. If we want to think about how good the Yankees’ current 25 man roster is, there’s nothing useful in including the performances by people like Randy Winn, Colin Curtis, Kevin Russo or Chan Ho Park. So any analysis based on 2010 Pythagorean performance or what have you is woefully incomplete in my opinion.

That being said, projections are inherently limited. While the general principle behind them is essentially right for the body of professional players as a whole, they will not necessarily capture the nuances of a player’s performance in its entirety. If a player has suffered an actual physical change in his talent that has changed his ability to do some of the things he did prior to the year, the projection for that player is going to be wrong. We try to account for that by making sure we weigh recent performance most heavily.

So for the CAIRO projections that follow, be aware they are based on about 40% 2010, 60% 2007-2009 for position players. For pitchers I weigh recent performance a bit more heavily, around 45%.

First up, here are the Yankee position players’ offensive projections.

Lineup	Pos	2010 OBP	2010 wOBA	Proj OBP	Proj wOBA	PA	Outs	BR	Def
Derek Jeter	SS	.339	.322	.361	.346	21	13	3	-0.3
Nick Swisher	RF	.357	.370	.353	.359	20	13	3	0.1
Mark Teixeira	1B	.366	.369	.372	.388	20	13	3	0.1
Alex Rodriguez	3B	.341	.360	.369	.388	20	13	3	-0.1
Robinson Cano	2B	.382	.394	.356	.376	20	13	3	-0.1
Jorge Posada	C	.358	.358	.361	.367	15	10	2	-0.1
Curtis Granderson	CF	.323	.343	.334	.348	20	13	3	0.1
Lance Berkman	DH	.368	.350	.381	.384	20	12	3	0.0
Brett Gardner	LF	.379	.358	.356	.325	20	13	2	0.4
Francisco Cervelli	C	.350	.311	.314	.296	11	10	1	-0.1
Marcus Thames	DH	.352	.364	.310	.340	6	6	1	0.0
Austin Kearns	RF	.351	.336	.335	.326	5	3	1	0.0
Ramiro Pena	SS	.256	.237	.296	.274	3	3	0	0.0

This is a rough depth chart based on assuming a five game series and assuming 25 outs made while batting per game. I’ve shown the 2010 actual OBP/wOBA as well as the projections. In the picture of a series, you’re looking at a total of about 27 runs in five games, roughly equal to an 865 run full season offense. I’ll get into the defense thing in more detail so ignore that for now.

This depth chart with the 2010 actual data would put up a wOBA of .354. Using the projection data instead puts it to .358. That’s less than a run’s worth of difference over 200 PA.

The other thing we need to think about is platooning. In the postseason, understanding how two teams match up is particularly crucial. If a team that is more susceptible to LHP is facing a team with the ability to throw several lefties against them, they’ll have a more difficult time than they would against an equally talented team which is not able to exploit a platoon advantage. So here’s how the Yankees primary starting lineup project overall as well as against LHP and RHP.

Player	Overall
	PA	wOBA	BR	Outs
Derek Jeter	5.0	.346	0.7	3.2
Nick Swisher	5.0	.359	0.7	3.2
Mark Teixeira	5.0	.388	0.8	3.1
Alex Rodriguez	4.0	.388	0.7	2.5
Robinson Cano	4.0	.376	0.6	2.6
Jorge Posada	4.0	.367	0.6	2.6
Curtis Granderson	4.0	.348	0.5	2.7
Lance Berkman	4.0	.384	0.7	2.5
Brett Gardner	4.0	.325	0.5	2.6
Total	39.0	.365	5.8	25.0
Vs. L	PA	wOBA	BR	Outs
Derek Jeter	5.0	.365	0.7	3.1
Nick Swisher	5.0	.370	0.8	3.2
Mark Teixeira	4.7	.394	0.8	2.9
Alex Rodriguez	4.0	.393	0.7	2.5
Robinson Cano	4.0	.361	0.6	2.6
Jorge Posada	4.0	.370	0.6	2.5
Curtis Granderson	4.0	.298	0.4	2.9
Lance Berkman	4.0	.339	0.5	2.7
Brett Gardner	4.0	.308	0.4	2.7
Total	38.7	.357	5.5	25.0
Vs. R	PA	wOBA	BR	Outs
Derek Jeter	5.0	.336	0.6	3.2
Nick Swisher	5.0	.357	0.7	3.3
Mark Teixeira	5.0	.383	0.8	3.2
Alex Rodriguez	4.2	.383	0.7	2.7
Robinson Cano	4.0	.386	0.7	2.5
Jorge Posada	4.0	.365	0.6	2.6
Curtis Granderson	4.0	.364	0.6	2.6
Lance Berkman	4.0	.396	0.7	2.4
Brett Gardner	4.0	.334	0.5	2.5
Total	39.2	.366	5.9	25.0

This version of the Yankee lineup is a bit more susceptible to LHP. The difference between a team that scores 5.9 runs per game and one that scores 5.5 runs per game is about five wins over a full season, although it depends on the run environment and the team’s pitching/defense. The Twins are going to have Francisco Liriano potentially going twice, and they may start Brian Duensing as well, and they have Jose Mijares and Brian Fuentes in the pen as useful lefty relievers so that could be an issue.

The good news is the Yankees can improve the lineup versus lefties by a bit if they replace Lance Berkman with Marcus Thames. They go to 5.6 runs a game with a straight swap. They may also want to consider replacing Granderson with Austin Kearns, although with the way the two are playing right now what may seem to be an upgrade on paper isn’t necessarily going to be one.

Now, we need to consider defense. It’s probably been apparent to regular readers that I haven’t talked as much about defensive metrics as I have in the past. The reason for that is the more I learn about the defensive metrics we have, the more I realize that they have some serious limitations that we need to be cognizant of.

That doesn’t mean we should ignore defense all together, it just means we need to probably consider any and all metrics that are based on a solid methodology and temper how much we believe any of them in either isolation or in the aggregate.So, here’s how the Yankee defenders look based on a weighted average of the last five seasons using Chris Dial’s Zone Rating system(ZR), Fangraph’s Ultimate Zone Rating(UZR), John Dewan’s Defensive Runs Saved(DRS) and Sean Smith’s TotalZone. While the data is available to go back to 2002 in all of these metrics, player fielding ability changes enough that I don’t think there’s much use in going back further than that.

Player	Pos	Def
Derek Jeter	SS	-9
Nick Swisher	RF	3
Mark Teixeira	1B	5
Alex Rodriguez	3B	-3
Robinson Cano	2B	-2
Jorge Posada	C	-4
Curtis Granderson	CF	4
Lance Berkman	DH	0
Brett Gardner	LF	16
Total		10

These are the full season equivalents of how many runs each player would project to save compared to an average defender. As a team they’re a bit better than average, with the OF being the strong point. I think Cano’s probably better than his projection right now, but I also think Jeter may be worse, but overall defense isn’t a weakness, which is kind of nice after years of it being one.

Last year, the same basic analysis had the Yankees at an estimated 28.6 runs scored over a five game series. With the pitching staff that was projected they were equivalent to about a 107 win team. This year’s team looks more like a 26.7 run team. While a two run difference may not seem like a big deal, pro-rated over a full season it’s around a 60 run difference.This year’s team projects a bit worse offensively, and a hair better defensively, but I think it’s fair to say this year’s position players are not as good as last year’s were.

Of course, we do also have to consider the pitching staff, so that’ll be the next post.

--Posted at 9:53 pm by SG / 20 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

First Draft of the Postseason Roster

I still need to run my projections and do this with more effort, but I figured we could start goofing around with a what a potential 25 man roster for the postseason could look like.

First, here are the locks:

Starting Pitchers (4)
Sabathia
Pettitte
Hughes
Burnett

Relief Pitchers (5)
Mo
Robertson
Wood
Chamberlain
Logan

Catchers (2)
Posada
Cervelli

Infielders (4)
Cano
Jeter
Teixeira
Rodriguez

Outfielders (3)
Gardner
Granderson
Swisher

DH (2)
Berkman
Thames

That’s 20, which leaves five spots open to fill out the bullpen and bench. They’re probably going to carry at least one long reliever, and the best candidate for that is probably Javier Vazquez. If they’re playing Minnesota, they may want to take Royce Ring as a second lefty to deal with Jim Thome. Against Texas it’s less of an issue as most of their best players are RH. I really think they should try Nova out of the pen a couple of times during the last few games and see if he can be a second long man, one with a fastball that can crack 88 mph.

They’re almost certainly going to take one of Ramiro Pena/Eduardo Nunez and possibly both. Although Thames is in theory a candidate for the outfield, if they’re smart they’ll try to avoid putting him out there at all costs. 0 So that probably opens up a spot for Greg Golson as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner. Update: I forgot about Austin Kearns, he’d probably get this spot instead of Golson.

So the 20 locks plus Vazquez, Ring, one of Pena/Nunez and Kearns leaves one open spot. I’d like to see Nova get it.

--Posted at 10:52 am by SG / 38 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Gaps Between Projected wOBA and Actual wOBA through September 22, 2010

rank	player	team	pa	a_woba	p_woba	diff
1	Jose Bautista	Blue Jays	633	.416	.320	52.7
2	Josh Hamilton	Rangers	558	.442	.353	43.5
3	Adrian Beltre	Red Sox	607	.396	.326	36.7
4	Carlos Gonzalez	Rockies	596	.413	.343	36.3
5	Paul Konerko	White Sox	600	.416	.349	35.1
6	Aubrey Huff	Giants	623	.384	.322	33.6
7	Jason Heyward	Braves	578	.386	.332	27.4
8	Alex Gonzalez	- - -	601	.330	.280	26.0
9	Brennan Boesch	Tigers	483	.334	.273	25.6
10	Joey Votto	Reds	620	.433	.386	25.4
11	Andres Torres	Giants	535	.355	.306	23.1
12	Austin Jackson	Tigers	624	.338	.299	20.9
13	Carlos Ruiz	Phillies	408	.373	.318	19.7
14	Robinson Cano	Yankees	647	.397	.362	19.7
15	Ryan Zimmerman	Nationals	599	.389	.352	19.2
16	Scott Rolen	Reds	511	.376	.334	18.8
17	Starlin Castro	Cubs	459	.339	.292	18.7
18	Omar Infante	Braves	457	.352	.307	18.1
19	Troy Tulowitzki	Rockies	479	.413	.370	18.0
20	Miguel Cabrera	Tigers	625	.434	.402	17.2
21	Colby Rasmus	Cardinals	489	.375	.336	16.5
22	Rafael Furcal	Dodgers	403	.361	.315	16.1
23	Vernon Wells	Blue Jays	601	.355	.325	15.8
24	Adrian Gonzalez	Padres	644	.398	.370	15.8
25	Dan Uggla	Marlins	624	.375	.346	15.6
26	Delmon Young	Twins	570	.349	.318	15.5
27	Jayson Werth	Phillies	623	.389	.361	15.5
28	Daric Barton	Athletics	628	.361	.333	15.0
29	Brett Gardner	Yankees	530	.350	.319	14.5
30	Carl Crawford	Rays	613	.360	.334	14.0
31	Corey Hart	Brewers	556	.362	.333	13.9
32	Nick Swisher	Yankees	588	.377	.350	13.5
33	Nelson Cruz	Rangers	405	.397	.360	13.2
34	Rickie Weeks	Brewers	699	.361	.339	13.2
35	Jeff Keppinger	Astros	528	.334	.307	12.4
36	Angel Pagan	Mets	581	.338	.314	12.3
37	Neil Walker	Pirates	414	.352	.319	12.0
38	Ian Desmond	Nationals	517	.317	.291	11.5
39	Kelly Johnson	Diamondbacks	624	.366	.345	11.5
40	Martin Prado	Braves	628	.352	.331	11.5
41	Casey McGehee	Brewers	615	.341	.320	11.5
42	John Buck	Blue Jays	401	.331	.300	10.7
43	Kevin Youkilis	Red Sox	435	.416	.388	10.5
44	Elvis Andrus	Rangers	621	.304	.286	9.5
45	Roger Bernadina	Nationals	419	.311	.286	9.2
46	Josh Willingham	Nationals	451	.373	.350	9.2
47	Luke Scott	Orioles	486	.381	.362	8.1
48	Mark Ellis	Athletics	438	.320	.299	7.9
49	Jorge Posada	Yankees	425	.372	.351	7.6
50	David Eckstein	Padres	433	.302	.282	7.5
51	Juan Uribe	Giants	534	.319	.303	7.4
52	David Murphy	Rangers	447	.348	.329	7.4
53	Alex Rios	White Sox	602	.345	.331	7.3
54	Matt Holliday	Cardinals	629	.397	.384	7.3
55	Austin Kearns	- - -	447	.336	.318	7.1
56	Michael Bourn	Astros	599	.312	.300	6.5
57	Stephen Drew	Diamondbacks	588	.344	.332	6.5
58	Torii Hunter	Angels	597	.362	.350	6.2
59	Brandon Inge	Tigers	537	.318	.304	6.2
60	Marlon Byrd	Cubs	595	.345	.334	5.7
61	Adam Dunn	Nationals	611	.381	.372	4.8
62	Brian McCann	Braves	529	.370	.359	4.6
63	Evan Longoria	Rays	652	.375	.367	4.3
64	Freddy Sanchez	Giants	436	.319	.308	4.3
65	Hideki Matsui	Angels	533	.355	.347	4.1
66	Miguel Olivo	Rockies	410	.334	.323	4.1
67	Jose Guillen	- - -	544	.324	.316	3.9
68	Ichiro Suzuki	Mariners	672	.339	.332	3.9
69	Jerry Hairston	Padres	472	.289	.281	3.6
70	Jay Bruce	Reds	542	.354	.347	3.5
71	Cliff Pennington	Athletics	523	.302	.294	3.5
72	Gaby Sanchez	Marlins	591	.355	.349	3.4
73	Ian Kinsler	Rangers	415	.363	.354	3.3
74	Yuniesky Betancourt	Royals	538	.298	.293	2.7
75	Blake DeWitt	- - -	456	.313	.306	2.7
76	Ronny Cedeno	Pirates	450	.287	.281	2.5
77	Brandon Phillips	Reds	646	.328	.324	2.5
78	Scott Podsednik	- - -	585	.322	.319	1.7
79	Shane Victorino	Phillies	611	.333	.330	1.5
80	Ryan Doumit	Pirates	436	.332	.329	1.2
81	Lyle Overbay	Blue Jays	563	.336	.334	1.2
82	Alfonso Soriano	Cubs	501	.342	.340	1.2
83	Andre Ethier	Dodgers	546	.366	.364	1.1
84	Alexei Ramirez	White Sox	582	.320	.318	1.0
85	Andrew McCutchen	Pirates	599	.350	.348	1.0
86	Adam Jones	Orioles	577	.339	.337	0.7
87	Travis Hafner	Indians	429	.356	.355	0.5
88	Will Venable	Padres	414	.323	.322	0.5
89	Lastings Milledge	Pirates	410	.317	.316	0.4
90	Placido Polanco	Phillies	572	.323	.322	0.3
91	Shin-Soo Choo	Indians	604	.383	.383	0.1
92	Russell Branyan	- - -	427	.346	.347	-0.4
93	Johnny Damon	Tigers	571	.337	.339	-0.6
94	Fred Lewis	Blue Jays	479	.328	.329	-0.7
95	Orlando Cabrera	Reds	508	.295	.298	-1.0
96	Jose Reyes	Mets	555	.329	.331	-1.2
97	Orlando Hudson	Twins	517	.322	.325	-1.4
98	Bobby Abreu	Angels	632	.347	.350	-1.4
99	David Ortiz	Red Sox	565	.375	.378	-1.5
100	Raul Ibanez	Phillies	596	.348	.351	-1.6
101	Juan Pierre	White Sox	672	.300	.303	-1.8
102	Billy Butler	Royals	624	.374	.378	-1.9
103	Jonny Gomes	Reds	536	.330	.335	-2.3
104	Michael Young	Rangers	671	.337	.341	-2.6
105	Drew Stubbs	Reds	543	.326	.332	-2.8
106	Curtis Granderson	Yankees	485	.339	.346	-3.0
107	A.J. Pierzynski	White Sox	475	.302	.310	-3.2
108	Trevor Crowe	Indians	433	.288	.297	-3.2
109	Michael Cuddyer	Twins	636	.332	.338	-3.3
110	Jason Kendall	Royals	484	.283	.292	-3.8
111	David Wright	Mets	626	.366	.373	-3.9
112	Ian Stewart	Rockies	423	.347	.358	-4.1
113	Casey Blake	Dodgers	535	.317	.326	-4.2
114	Hunter Pence	Astros	617	.340	.348	-4.4
115	Ryan Ludwick	- - -	507	.338	.348	-4.5
116	Juan Rivera	Angels	428	.306	.319	-4.6
117	Chase Headley	Padres	629	.310	.318	-4.6
118	Rajai Davis	Athletics	512	.299	.309	-4.7
119	Ryan Howard	Phillies	582	.373	.382	-4.7
120	Vladimir Guerrero	Rangers	605	.363	.372	-4.8
121	Nyjer Morgan	Nationals	531	.290	.301	-5.0
122	Troy Glaus	Braves	481	.331	.343	-5.0
123	Yadier Molina	Cardinals	519	.304	.315	-5.0
124	Kurt Suzuki	Athletics	496	.301	.313	-5.3
125	Dexter Fowler	Rockies	457	.329	.343	-5.4
126	Ty Wigginton	Orioles	607	.322	.332	-5.5
127	Mike Napoli	Angels	479	.343	.357	-5.6
128	B.J. Upton	Rays	563	.324	.335	-5.7
129	Joe Mauer	Twins	573	.387	.398	-5.7
130	Chase Utley	Phillies	471	.372	.386	-5.9
131	Melky Cabrera	Braves	483	.301	.315	-5.9
132	Jeff Francoeur	- - -	466	.293	.308	-5.9
133	Victor Martinez	Red Sox	498	.357	.371	-6.0
134	Skip Schumaker	Cardinals	487	.306	.321	-6.1
135	Jhonny Peralta	- - -	572	.311	.323	-6.2
136	Clint Barmes	Rockies	425	.292	.310	-6.5
137	Carlos Quentin	White Sox	505	.349	.364	-7.0
138	Justin Upton	Diamondbacks	570	.350	.364	-7.0
139	Albert Pujols	Cardinals	657	.419	.432	-7.5
140	Franklin Gutierrez	Mariners	583	.303	.318	-7.6
141	Marco Scutaro	Red Sox	663	.318	.331	-8.0
142	Ryan Braun	Brewers	641	.369	.385	-8.6
143	Kevin Kouzmanoff	Athletics	544	.298	.317	-8.9
144	Prince Fielder	Brewers	660	.390	.406	-9.0
145	Jorge Cantu	- - -	484	.302	.324	-9.3
146	James Loney	Dodgers	605	.323	.340	-9.3
147	Ryan Theriot	- - -	589	.293	.311	-9.5
148	Jason Bay	Mets	401	.332	.361	-9.8
149	Cesar Izturis	Orioles	473	.255	.279	-9.9
150	Alcides Escobar	Brewers	525	.275	.297	-10.1
151	Jason Kubel	Twins	537	.330	.352	-10.3
152	Jason Bartlett	Rays	486	.303	.327	-10.4
153	Garrett Jones	Pirates	606	.311	.331	-10.4
154	Lance Berkman	- - -	461	.354	.381	-10.9
155	Nick Markakis	Orioles	662	.349	.369	-11.4
156	Howie Kendrick	Angels	609	.312	.334	-11.4
157	Erick Aybar	Angels	562	.288	.313	-12.2
158	Adam LaRoche	Diamondbacks	576	.336	.361	-12.4
159	Cody Ross	- - -	543	.309	.335	-12.4
160	Hanley Ramirez	Marlins	619	.372	.397	-13.2
161	Yunel Escobar	- - -	517	.306	.336	-13.2
162	Julio Borbon	Rangers	413	.290	.327	-13.2
163	J.D. Drew	Red Sox	511	.344	.375	-13.5
164	Felipe Lopez	Cardinals	422	.294	.331	-13.7
165	Mark Reynolds	Diamondbacks	575	.334	.361	-13.8
166	Mark Teixeira	Yankees	659	.365	.390	-13.9
167	Miguel Tejada	- - -	632	.306	.332	-14.3
168	Ben Zobrist	Rays	602	.324	.352	-14.8
169	Brendan Ryan	Cardinals	444	.255	.297	-16.1
170	Matt Kemp	Dodgers	628	.320	.352	-17.3
171	Chone Figgins	Mariners	634	.300	.332	-17.8
172	Todd Helton	Rockies	436	.325	.373	-17.9
173	Derrek Lee	- - -	587	.336	.373	-19.1
174	Carlos Lee	Astros	605	.306	.343	-19.5
175	Pedro Feliz	- - -	414	.235	.291	-20.2
176	Alex Rodriguez	Yankees	544	.356	.399	-20.3
177	Casey Kotchman	Mariners	453	.276	.329	-20.6
178	Alberto Callaspo	- - -	581	.300	.341	-20.7
179	Aaron Hill	Blue Jays	540	.293	.339	-21.5
180	Derek Jeter	Yankees	690	.316	.352	-21.8
181	Matt Wieters	Orioles	471	.318	.372	-21.8
182	Denard Span	Twins	651	.311	.352	-23.2
183	Gordon Beckham	White Sox	492	.308	.364	-23.9
184	Adam Lind	Blue Jays	579	.305	.354	-24.6
185	Aramis Ramirez	Cubs	468	.319	.381	-25.4
186	Carlos Pena	Rays	545	.328	.382	-25.7
187	Pablo Sandoval	Giants	589	.316	.374	-29.7

*minimum 400 PA

a_woba: year to date actual wOBA
p_woba: projected wOBA, using an average of CHONE, Marcel, Oliver, PECOTA, ZiPS and CAIRO
diff: difference in run value between actual and projected wOBA over year to date plate appearances (calculated as a_woba minus p_woba divided by 1.15 times PA)

Keep in mind that the offensive run environment in 2010 is lower than it was in 2009 so the projected wOBA are high for everyone.

--Posted at 9:37 am by SG / 33 Comments | - (0)

Friday, September 17, 2010

This Home/Road Thing

A couple of days ago, Baseball-Reference.com updated their park factors for 2010. Prior to that, they had CC Sabathia ranked at 4.6 WAR (wins above replacement). This is using Baseball Reference and Sean Smith’s version of WAR, which I prefer to Fangraphs’s version, particularly for pitching. In the interest of full disclosure, I prefer my own version to both since I can make the Yankees look better than they are.

The park factor for DNYS prior to this update showed it as a pitcher’s park, with run scoring about 3% below average. How can a disgraceful bandbox where infield flies go for HRs be a pitcher’s park? Easy. It can’t be. It may have shown as a pitcher’s park because there were more runs scored in Yankee road games than Yankee home games in 2009, but there are a lot of reasons that the actual runs scored in a season don’t match up with the actual offensive events that happened. DNYS boosted wOBA by 2%, so the logical expectation was that it was a slight hitter’s park, although we still needed more data before determining that one way or the other.

The park factor update took it to a park that has increased offense by 15% this year, and 6% overall in 2009 and 2010, and that moved Sabathia up to 5.4 WAR while knocking former AL pitcher WAR leader Felix Hernandez down from 5.2 to 4.9. Keep in mind that before this change was made, most saber-leaning internet dorks were incensed about the possibility that Sabathia may win the Cy Young on the basis of his superior win-loss record when Felix Hernandez was so clearly ahead of him it was ridiculous.

Of course, now people are using this update to criticize the entire framework and the idea behind WAR, which is silly. The concept behind WAR is sound. Figure out the various ways a player contributes value to his team, and figure out how to combine those to give us some idea of why teams win and lose games. Just don’t blindly trust a number that is on a website if you don’t understand how it’s calculated and what its possible limitations may be. And yes, every metric, not matter how good, has limitations.

If you think about it logically, the idea that Hernandez was so much better than Sabathia because he’d pitched more innings with a lower ERA is just as short-sighted as this idea that Sabathia’s W-L record made him so much better than Hernandez. First of all, it is indisputable that Hernandez pitches in a park that suppresses offense. So he will rate better in ERA/RA than he would in a neutral park. Anyone that disagrees with that is being disingenuous. It also seems very likely that Sabathia pitches in a park that increases offense, albeit one that we don’t have enough data on to definitively show it.

There’s also the matter of unearned runs. Sabathia has allowed eight of those, and Hernandez has allowed 17. That narrows the gap between them from 0.63 runs per nine innings (in ERA) to 0.29 per nine innings (in RA).

There’s also the question about defensive support and who gets a bigger boost from that. If I’m not mistaken, the Mariners basically were the first team in MLB history to understand the importance of defense and have the best defense in history. So all things being equal, Hernandez’s raw numbers will look better than they would with an average defense behind him, although as a high-strikeout pitcher he’s less reliant on them.

The point is, this stuff is complicated, and when looking at a statistic like WAR you need to be cognizant of the things that can skew it, and the inherent error bars with it.

Anyway, this post isn’t supposed to be talking about the Cy Young award or WAR, although the shift in Sabathia’s WAR thanks to park factor touches on something I wanted to look at anyway.

All season, the Yankee offense has been far less effective team on the road than they have been at DNYS. Now we know that players hit better at home, but the question is if the Yankees’ split is bigger than what we should reasonably expect.

Enough text, onto the numbers.

Player	Year	Split	PA	AB	Hits	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Ratio
Alex Rodriguez	2009	Home	276	227	59	9	0	18	43	48	.260	.391	.537	.400	0.99
Alex Rodriguez	2009	Road	259	217	68	8	1	12	37	49	.313	.413	.525	.407	1.01
Alex Rodriguez	2009	Total	535	444	127	17	1	30	80	97	.286	.402	.532	.403
Alex Rodriguez	2010	Home	231	204	60	14	0	11	21	39	.294	.364	.525	.380	1.07
Alex Rodriguez	2010	Road	293	259	65	15	2	12	28	46	.251	.316	.467	.333	0.94
Alex Rodriguez	2010	Total	524	463	125	29	2	23	49	85	.270	.338	.490	.354
Brett Gardner	2009	Home	124	106	26	3	2	1	13	16	.245	.339	.340	.304	0.95
Brett Gardner	2009	Road	160	142	41	3	4	2	13	24	.289	.350	.408	.330	1.04
Brett Gardner	2009	Total	284	248	67	6	6	3	26	40	.270	.338	.379	.318
Brett Gardner	2010	Home	264	216	61	10	2	5	41	38	.282	.397	.417	.363	1.05
Brett Gardner	2010	Road	249	212	59	7	3	0	31	52	.278	.378	.340	.329	0.95
Brett Gardner	2010	Total	513	428	120	17	5	5	72	90	.280	.384	.379	.347
Curtis Granderson	2010	Home	233	209	53	10	3	10	22	49	.254	.328	.474	.344	1.04
Curtis Granderson	2010	Road	232	204	49	7	3	8	22	51	.241	.317	.412	.317	0.96
Curtis Granderson	2010	Total	465	413	102	17	6	18	44	100	.247	.318	.448	.330
Derek Jeter	2009	Home	357	311	103	12	0	13	38	46	.331	.412	.495	.396	1.03
Derek Jeter	2009	Road	359	323	109	15	1	5	34	44	.337	.399	.437	.372	0.97
Derek Jeter	2009	Total	716	634	212	27	1	18	72	90	.334	.404	.465	.384
Derek Jeter	2010	Home	328	294	86	15	2	7	29	49	.293	.361	.429	.348	1.11
Derek Jeter	2010	Road	337	306	71	13	1	3	25	44	.232	.298	.311	.279	0.89
Derek Jeter	2010	Total	665	600	157	28	3	10	54	93	.262	.329	.368	.313
Francisco Cervelli	2009	Home	51	48	15	2	0	0	0	6	.312	.312	.354	.278	0.97
Francisco Cervelli	2009	Road	50	46	13	2	0	1	2	5	.283	.306	.391	.297	1.03
Francisco Cervelli	2009	Total	101	94	28	4	0	1	2	11	.298	.297	.372	.288
Francisco Cervelli	2010	Home	137	113	28	6	3	0	11	19	.248	.328	.354	.293	0.98
Francisco Cervelli	2010	Road	157	134	35	4	0	0	19	19	.261	.361	.291	.306	1.02
Francisco Cervelli	2010	Total	294	247	63	10	3	0	30	38	.255	.337	.320	.300
Hideki Matsui	2009	Home	291	253	67	11	0	13	33	45	.265	.354	.462	.356	0.94
Hideki Matsui	2009	Road	235	203	58	10	1	15	31	30	.286	.383	.567	.405	1.07
Hideki Matsui	2009	Total	526	456	125	21	1	28	64	75	.274	.367	.509	.378
Johnny Damon	2009	Home	318	272	76	18	0	17	43	44	.279	.382	.533	.393	1.06
Johnny Damon	2009	Road	308	278	79	18	3	7	28	54	.284	.349	.446	.346	0.94
Johnny Damon	2009	Total	626	550	155	36	3	24	71	98	.282	.364	.489	.370
Jorge Posada	2009	Home	215	191	62	13	0	14	24	49	.325	.400	.613	.429	1.13
Jorge Posada	2009	Road	223	192	47	12	0	8	24	52	.245	.327	.432	.330	0.87
Jorge Posada	2009	Total	438	383	109	25	0	22	48	101	.285	.363	.522	.378
Jorge Posada	2010	Home	213	184	55	14	1	11	25	49	.299	.394	.565	.411	1.12
Jorge Posada	2010	Road	196	163	34	8	0	7	29	34	.211	.328	.391	.322	0.87
Jorge Posada	2010	Total	409	347	89	22	1	18	54	83	.256	.364	.481	.368
Jose Molina	2009	Home	67	58	12	2	0	0	8	7	.207	.299	.241	.257	0.99
Jose Molina	2009	Road	88	80	18	2	0	1	6	21	.225	.287	.287	.261	1.01
Jose Molina	2009	Total	155	138	30	4	0	1	14	28	.217	.290	.268	.260
Lance Berkman	2010	Home	41	37	12	4	0	0	4	6	.324	.390	.432	.367	1.05
Lance Berkman	2010	Road	39	32	8	2	0	0	7	5	.241	.389	.310	.331	0.95
Lance Berkman	2010	Total	80	69	20	6	0	0	11	11	.290	.388	.377	.350
Marcus Thames	2010	Home	111	96	27	3	0	3	11	26	.281	.360	.406	.341	0.90
Marcus Thames	2010	Road	101	91	29	4	0	8	8	28	.322	.380	.633	.420	1.11
Marcus Thames	2010	Total	212	187	56	7	0	11	19	54	.299	.368	.513	.379
Mark Teixeira	2009	Home	349	308	96	21	2	24	34	58	.312	.387	.627	.425	1.05
Mark Teixeira	2009	Road	358	301	82	22	1	15	47	56	.272	.380	.502	.382	0.95
Mark Teixeira	2009	Total	707	609	178	43	3	39	81	114	.292	.383	.565	.403
Mark Teixeira	2010	Home	326	266	78	21	0	17	50	55	.293	.417	.564	.421	1.13
Mark Teixeira	2010	Road	318	278	64	12	0	13	35	51	.226	.316	.412	.323	0.87
Mark Teixeira	2010	Total	644	544	142	33	0	30	85	106	.261	.370	.487	.373
Melky Cabrera	2009	Home	289	255	69	12	0	9	25	33	.271	.336	.424	.329	1.00
Melky Cabrera	2009	Road	251	230	64	16	1	4	18	26	.278	.336	.409	.328	1.00
Melky Cabrera	2009	Total	540	485	133	28	1	13	43	59	.274	.333	.416	.329
Nick Swisher	2009	Home	290	226	51	14	0	8	56	61	.226	.382	.394	.350	0.94
Nick Swisher	2009	Road	317	272	73	21	1	21	41	65	.268	.361	.585	.395	1.06
Nick Swisher	2009	Total	607	498	124	35	1	29	97	126	.249	.369	.498	.373
Nick Swisher	2010	Home	279	252	71	12	1	13	25	57	.282	.351	.492	.365	0.97
Nick Swisher	2010	Road	291	255	75	19	2	13	28	66	.294	.370	.537	.385	1.03
Nick Swisher	2010	Total	570	507	146	31	3	26	53	123	.288	.360	.515	.375
Ramiro Pena	2009	Home	65	63	17	1	0	1	2	8	.270	.292	.333	.279	0.91
Ramiro Pena	2009	Road	56	52	16	5	1	0	3	12	.308	.345	.442	.338	1.10
Ramiro Pena	2009	Total	121	115	33	6	1	1	5	20	.287	.314	.383	.306
Ramiro Pena	2010	Home	104	95	23	0	1	0	4	15	.242	.275	.263	.240	1.04
Ramiro Pena	2010	Road	51	48	10	1	0	0	2	10	.196	.288	.283	.211	0.92
Ramiro Pena	2010	Total	155	143	33	1	1	0	6	25	.231	.258	.252	.231
Robinson Cano	2009	Home	335	314	106	22	0	14	17	25	.338	.370	.541	.390	1.05
Robinson Cano	2009	Road	339	323	98	26	2	11	13	38	.303	.333	.498	.356	0.96
Robinson Cano	2009	Total	674	637	204	48	2	25	30	63	.320	.352	.520	.373
Robinson Cano	2010	Home	312	281	87	18	1	16	27	34	.310	.372	.552	.394	0.99
Robinson Cano	2010	Road	311	281	94	20	2	11	24	34	.329	.388	.534	.400	1.01
Robinson Cano	2010	Total	623	562	181	38	3	27	51	68	.322	.382	.544	.397
Total	2009	Home	3177	2764	785	150	5	136	348	483	.284	.366	.490	.371	1.02
Total	2009	Road	3270	2896	819	175	16	108	315	531	.283	.354	.466	.356	0.98
Total	2009	Total	6447	5660	1604	325	21	244	663	1014	.283	.360	.478	.363
Total	2010	Home	2833	2471	694	138	16	101	293	494	.281	.361	.472	.362	1.05
Total	2010	Road	2885	2525	644	120	13	77	295	506	.255	.336	.404	.327	0.95
Total	2010	Total	5718	4996	1338	258	29	178	588	1000	.268	.348	.438	.345

wOBA: Weighted on-base average

The ratio column just divides the wOBA for that specific split by the total wOBA. So if you look at Alex Rodriguez in 2009, he was 1% worse at home than on on the road, but in 2010 he’s been 7% better at home than he’s been on the road.

I removed any players who did not have 100 total PAs in each season.

As a rough rule of thumb, they typical player hits about 10% better at home than on the road, although that can certainly be impacted by how his particular game suits his park. So a normal home/road ratio of wOBA is something like 1.05 home/ .95 road.

So just going through this list in order, the splits seem somewhat reasonable until we get to Derek Jeter’s 2010. Jeter’s 2010 road performance is abysmal. It’s actually worse than replacement level (it’d be about 30 runs below average over a full season).

Continuing on past Jeter, we seem reasonably within normal ranges until we get to Jorge Posada. I did not realize that Posasda had hit so much worse on the road in both 2009 and 2010.

Marcus Thames has been worse at home, but he’s a good example of someone who’s game is probably not particularly suited to his home ball park.

Mark Teixeira’s actually been even worse on the road relative to his overall performance than Jeter to this point.

I thought Swisher was doing better at home than he did last year, and I guess he technically is, but he’s still been better on the road. He’s just been better everywhere which makes his home performance pretty solid.

There was some concern that Cano’s performance last year was a bit of fluke boosted by playing in a disgraceful bandbox, but he’s shown this year that he’s a damn good hitter everywhere.

The totals are interesting to look at. Last year’s home/road split was lower than the typical home/road split. As a team, the collective split in 2010 is probably a bit closer to the normal ratio. I’ve read research that suggests that home field advantage is actually smaller in a new park because it takes time for players to adjust to it and it takes time for the organization to bring in players who are better fits to the park.

Tying this back into the park factor stuff at the top, my concern with trying to assess whether or not a park is a hitter’s or pitcher’s park is that it can be heavily influenced by the play of just a handful of players. In this post I showed that Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter were single-handedly responsible for 2009 DNYS having a HR park factor of 1.33 for righties. Removing just their totals from the home/road splits knocked that down to 1.15.

We also have to factor in the fact that run-scoring in the American League has dropped from 4.82 R/G to 4.47 runs per game. That’s a drop of nearly 60 runs per team over a full season. It’s possible that the same ratio in a higher offensive environment wouldn’t look nearly as jarring.

There are park factors. They impact the raw statistics of players in both positive and negative ways. It’s just impossible to know exacly how they influence every individual player. Is DNYS an extreme hitter’s park because Derek Jeter hits like Rey Sanchez on the road, or is it because it boosts hitting? We probably won’t know that for a few years.

So keep that in mind when you are looking at stuff like WAR. It doesn’t make WAR worthless, it just means you probably want to look at other information as well.

On an unrelated note, our own fgaspirini has a New York screening of his film Pelada on September 21 at 8 pm.

Pelada Screening: September 21st, 2010 - 8pm - Legends Bar and Restaurant

That time is ideal because you don’t have to waste your time watching the Yankees lose to Rays again.

--Posted at 7:10 am by SG / 90 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

NJ.com: Carig: Why Yankees manager Joe Girardi didn’t use Jorge Posada as a pinch hitter

ARLINGTON, Tex.—With one away in the eighth inning and the go-ahead run for the Yankees standing just 90 feet away on third base, manager Joe Girardi allowed backup catcher Francisco Cervelli to hit, leaving Jorge Posada and his much more imposing bat on the bench.

The result? Cervelli lined out softly to first and Brett Gardner grounded out to end the late threat against the Rangers, a key development in a 4-3 Yankees’ loss in which Posada was only available in an emergency.

After the game, Girardi said Posada experienced discomfort in his right shoulder while making a throw on Monday afternoon against the Red Sox, prompting Yankees manager Joe Girardi to keep the veteran on the bench.

...

Right-hander Javier Vazquez pitches for the Yankees tomorrow. If the Yankees stick with catching rotation they’ve established this season, Cervelli would be in line to make another start, giving Posada another day off.

- Let’s assume the idea behind the “catching rotation” is that Jorge Posada is healthy enough to catch three of every five games
- Let’s assume that A.J. Burnett and Javier Vazquez are the worst two starters in the Yankee rotation (non-Moseley edition)
- Let’s assume that on the days Burnett and Vazquez pitch, you need more offense than you do on the days that Sabathia, Hughes or Pettitte pitch

This catching rotation stinks.

Of course, it’s certainly possible that the first idea is simply wrong, and Posada’s just not healthy enough to play as much. That’s a major problem, because at this point Francisco Cervelli’s just not a viable major league hitter. Over his last 50 games, he’s hit .197/.269/.237. But his BABIP is only .234 you may say. BABIP is a SKILL, especially for a hitter. There’s a very good chance this low BABIP is predictive, and not a function of random variance.

That being said, I don’t think calling up Jesus Montero is going to happen. I have yet to read anything saying he now looks like he’ll clearly be able to handle catcher defensively in the majors, and as nice as it is that he’s been hitting well lately, his 2010 MLE(major league equivalency) is still only around .240/.300/.400. Of course, that’s Ruthian compared to the recent vintage of Cervelli, and MLEs are a blunt tool that don’t necessarily capture all the nuances of how a player’s game may translate at the highest level.

If there were trade options out there, you’d think the team with the best farm system in baseball could have done better than Kevin Cash when they lost their catchers, although perhaps that was a function of how much they were willing to pay.

The Yankees don’t NEED Cervelli to hit like he did in April and the first half of May to win, if people like Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson hit closer to how they projected to. But since that’s not happening, it magnifies the impact of Cervelli’s struggles.

CAIRO has Posada projected at a wOBA of .357 over the rest of the season, and Cervelli at a wOBA of .296. So, over the 50 remaining games, there’s about an 11 run difference on offense. That’s a bit more than one win, which isn’t huge in a vacuum, but in the context of this year’s AL East could be the difference between playing baseball or golf in October.

--Posted at 9:07 am by SG / 43 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Adding Lance Berkman, Volume 1

I realize the Yankees are the worst team in baseball, and we have all the evidence we need for that with their recent mini-slump over the last four games. If you agree with this sentence, please read no further.

For those of us who are not irrational, it is probably a safe assumption that in adding Lance Berkman and Austin Kearns, the Yankees have improved themselves. The question I’d like to try and answer is ‘by how much?’

I guess the first thing that would be good to know is how the players project for the rest of the season, so here are the rest of season CAIRO projections for the players who should see the bulk of the playing time going forward.

	RoS Projected		vs LHP		vs RHP
player	avg/obp/slg	wOBA	avg/obp/slg	wOBA	avg/obp/slg	wOBA
lance berkman	.267/.379/.483	.378	.239/.339/.432	.338	.276/.392/.499	.391
derek jeter	.297/.357/.413	.347	.314/.377/.436	.366	.292/.350/.405	.340
nick swisher	.257/.356/.481	.364	.264/.366/.495	.375	.254/.352/.476	.360
mark teixeira	.272/.374/.514	.384	.277/.380/.523	.391	.270/.371/.510	.382
alex rodriguez	.277/.368/.521	.387	.281/.373/.528	.392	.276/.366/.519	.385
robinson cano	.317/.357/.518	.375	.304/.343/.498	.361	.322/.363/.527	.382
jorge posada	.267/.356/.464	.359	.269/.358/.467	.362	.266/.355/.462	.358
francisco cervelli	.254/.314/.344	.301	.266/.328/.359	.314	.250/.309/.338	.295
brett gardner	.275/.359/.369	.348	.260/.339/.349	.329	.281/.366/.376	.355
curtis granderson	.256/.330/.456	.347	.220/.283/.392	.298	.268/.345/.477	.363
austin kearns	.240/.340/.372	.324	.250/.354/.388	.338	.236/.335/.366	.319
marcus thames	.247/.314/.452	.331	.258/.327/.471	.345	.240/.305/.439	.321

The second and third columns are the overall rest of season projections. The third and fourth columns are for the rest of season projections versus LHP and the fifth and sixth columns are for the rest of season projections versus RHP.

The standard caveats about projections apply here. They’re generally in the ballpark for most players, but they are going to be off on some in either direction because they just aren’t designed to capture true changes in skill. If Derek Jeter has fallen off the cliff, his projection overrates him. Similarly, if Nick Swisher really has incorporated Kevin Long’s advice to establish a new level of play, his projection underrates him. The idea here is that the over-projections and under-projections mitigate each other so the overall projection on a team level is in the ballpark. My guess is that the projections for Jeter and Rodriguez are too bullish, and the projections for Cano, Gardner and Swisher are too bearish. The others seem generally right.

I’ve shown the avg/obp/slg since it’s generally what we’re most accustomed to think about when looking at a player’s line, but the key numbers here are the projected on-base percentages and the projected wOBAs. The reason for that is that we can use OBP to determine the number of PAs per game the team should get, and we can use wOBA to figure out the number of runs the team should score.

Here’s how the Yankees’ primary lineup would probably have looked prior to the acquisitions of Berkman and Kearns.

Update: This chart originally had wOBA and OBP reversed and has been corrected.

Ord	Player	Pos	PA	OBP	wOBA	Outs	BR	BRAA
1	Derek Jeter	SS	5.0	.357	.347	3.2	0.62	0.06
2	Nick Swisher	RF	5.0	.356	.364	3.2	0.70	0.14
3	Mark Teixeira	1B	5.0	.374	.384	3.1	0.79	0.23
4	Alex Rodriguez	3B	5.0	.368	.387	3.2	0.80	0.24
5	Robinson Cano	2B	5.0	.357	.375	3.2	0.75	0.19
6	Jorge Posada	DH	4.7	.356	.359	3.0	0.64	0.11
7	Curtis Granderson	CF	4.0	.330	.347	2.7	0.50	0.05
8	Francisco Cervelli	C	4.0	.314	.301	2.7	0.34	-0.11
9	Brett Gardner	LF	4.0	.359	.348	2.6	0.50	0.06
	Total		41.7	.354	.359	27.0	5.63	0.97

Now they probably could have made use of platooning to improve that some, but that’s probably what would have been the primary lineup, unless they thought Posada could catch more.

To estimate a lineup’s total projection, I give the team enough PAs to get to 27 outs. Which is done as follows:

- Start with 4 PAs for everyone
- Calculate outs made by each player as PAs times ( 1 - OBP)
- Move down the order and add a PA to each slot until you hit a team total 27 outs.

Now, in the sufficiently rare instance of the Yankees winning a game at home and not needing to bat in the ninth they won’t need to use all 27 outs, and there may be extra inning games where they get more than 27 outs, and there are obviously outs on bases and double plays that aren’t included here but all we’re looking at here is the delta between different configurations so using 27 is good enough.

BR are just the absolute linear weights batting runs figured for the listed number of PAs, not position-adjusted or compared to average/replacement level. BRAA are just how many BR above/below average each player projects to be, again over the listed PAs.

So the Yankees looked to be around 5.63 runs per game with this lineup, roughly an 910 run offense over a full season. Of course, you wouldn’t expect this lineup to play 162 games so the season total would be a fair amount less than that.

I haven’t done rest of season pitching projections yet, but if we use the Yankees’ YTD RA of 4.18 per game, a team that scores 5.63 runs per game and allows 4.18 per game is around a .640 team, or a 104 win team.

So what does adding just Lance Berkman to DH and moving Posada back to catcher mean?

Ord	Player	Pos	PA	OBP	wOBA	Outs	BR	BRAA
1	Derek Jeter	SS	5.0	.357	.347	3.2	0.62	0.06
2	Nick Swisher	RF	5.0	.356	.364	3.2	0.70	0.14
3	Mark Teixeira	1B	5.0	.374	.384	3.1	0.79	0.23
4	Alex Rodriguez	3B	5.0	.368	.387	3.2	0.80	0.24
5	Robinson Cano	2B	5.0	.357	.375	3.2	0.75	0.19
6	Jorge Posada	C	5.0	.356	.359	3.2	0.68	0.12
7	Lance Berkman	DH	4.2	.379	.378	2.6	0.64	0.17
8	Curtis Granderson	CF	4.0	.330	.347	2.7	0.50	0.05
9	Brett Gardner	LF	4.0	.359	.348	2.6	0.50	0.06
	Total		42.2	.360	.366	27.0	5.97	1.25

It means about 0.34 additional runs per game, which makes them closer to a .667/108 win team.

On paper that’s a bit more than a one win upgrade over what’s left of the season, although depending on how much catching time Jorge Posada got in lieu of Francisco Cervelli prior to the Berkman trade, and how much time Cervelli sees going forward, that gap shrinks by a bit.

Now, it’s a little more involved than this, because the Yankees can probably get more value out of their players by using platoon advantages where applicable. I’ll try and do a follow up post on that later today or tomorrow.

--Posted at 10:29 am by SG / 28 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, July 31, 2010

Rest of 2010 CAIRO Projections - Berkman and Kearns

The implications of these potential acquisitions really require a detailed analysis that looks at how to best utilize them in tandem with the rest of the current roster and leveraging things like platoon advantages, but I generally don’t like to spend my weekends doing detailed analysis so that’ll have to wait.

But here are the rest of season projections for Lance Berkman and Austin Kearns.

Player	lance berkman
Pos	DH
	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAR
pre-season	619	514	89	141	31	2	27	95	93	111	0	0	.274	.377	.497	.383	99	27
2010 ytd	358	298	39	73	16	1	13	49	60	70	3	2	.245	.372	.436	.359	50	9
rest of season	313	261	41	69	15	1	13	46	49	58	4	2	.264	.378	.477	.375	48	12
total	671	559	80	142	31	2	26	95	109	128	7	4	.254	.375	.455	.367	99	21

Player	austin kearns
Pos	lf
	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAR
pre-season	412	355	47	81	17	1	9	43	50	77	0	0	.229	.335	.357	.318	45	3
2010 ytd	342	301	42	82	18	1	8	42	34	78	4	1	.272	.352	.419	.343	45	10
rest of season	174	151	21	37	8	0	4	19	20	35	1	1	.245	.342	.380	.327	20	3
total	516	452	63	119	26	1	12	61	54	113	5	2	.263	.349	.406	.337	65	13

BRAR: Linear weights batting runs above replacement level, adjusted for posiiton.

Berkman’s rest-of-season projection is essentially Nick Johnson’s 2010 projection (wOBA of .375 compared to .377).

Ideally, what the Yankees should probably do is play Berkman at DH and Jorge Posada at catcher against all RHP. Against LHP, they can start Francisco Cervelli at catcher more frequently (,241/.288/.310 vs. RHP,. 323/.393/.385 vs LHP career), DH Posado or Marcus Thames, sit Curtis Granderson and move TSBG to CF, and throw Kearns in LF. Kearns can play any of the three OF positions as well.

My guess is these moves don’t translate to huge upgrade on paper, but with how tightly the bunched the AL East is looking right now, ANY upgrade is important. The Yankees should also now have the ability to rest some of the regulars a bit more frequently without losing too much on the field, as well as having a bit more insurance should injuries start popping up.

But I’ll crunch the numbers on Monday.

--Posted at 11:04 am by SG / 39 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Yankees.com: A-Rod, Jeter highlight Yanks’ wild win

NEW YORK—Alex Rodriguez sent his 599th home run over the wall and Derek Jeter legged out the second inside-the-park homer of his career as the Yankees defeated the Royals, 10-4, on Thursday at Yankee Stadium.

Rodriguez’s knock on the doorstep of the 600-homer club came in the seventh inning facing Kansas City reliever Robinson Tejeda, who grooved an 0-2 pitch that was dispatched by A-Rod, rocketing over the right-field wall for his 16th home run of the season.

A-Rod had the option of trotting, but Jeter didn’t in the third, smashing a drive toward the New York bullpen that eluded David DeJesus when the center fielder crashed into the plexiglass fence and suffered a right thumb sprain. Jeter slid home safely with his first inside-the-parker since Aug. 2, 1996, off Kansas City’s Jeff Montgomery.

Despite the final score, this was a bit too close for comfort through the first 7 and a half innings. Brett Gardner’s arm saved the Yankees a big run, and Jorge Posada’s arm cost them one and almost cost them again. Posada’s clearly making the case to keep Jesus Montero at catcher, as it’s not possible he could be any worse defensively.

CC Sabathia wasn’t good, but he was due for a clunker, and managed to at least get out of the fifth inning, a sore spot for many of the Yankee starters of late. The Yankees are going to need innings with Andy Pettitte out for the next month, with Kei Igawa in an A.J. Burnett mask starting every fifth day and with Phil Hughes irreparably damaged .because the Yankees skipped his turn in the rotation once.

And don’t look now, but Mark Teixeira’s seasonal line is creeping to respectability. He started the night at .256/.366/.471 and exited it at .261/.369/.475. Now we can turn our attention to Jeter’s quest for a .400 SLG.

--Posted at 9:50 pm by SG / 16 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

2010 All Star Break Review - June Edition

A little late, but following up on April and May here’s the June All Star Break review.

June looked like the Yankees’ easiest month on paper, with 18 of their 27 games at home, and with a bunch of those games against minor league teams from Houston, Philadelphia and Queens. Log5 would have estimated them winning about 18 of those 27 games.

Series	Start Date	# Gms	xW	aW	diff
Orioles at Yankees	6/1/2010	3	2.3	3	0.7
Yankees at Blue Jays	6/4/2010	3	1.8	1	-0.8
Yankees at Orioles	6/8/2010	3	2.1	2	-0.1
Astros at Yankees	6/11/2010	3	2.3	3	0.7
Phillies at Yankees	6/15/2010	3	1.8	1	-0.8
Mets at Yankees	6/18/2010	3	1.9	2	0.1
Yankees at Diamondbacks	6/21/2010	3	1.9	2	0.1
Yankees at Dodgers	6/25/2010	3	1.6	2	0.4
Mariners at Yankees	6/29/2010	3	2.1	1	-1.1
Total		27	18	17	-1

xW: Expected wins for this series using log 5
aW: Actual wins
diff: Difference between xW and aW. Positive means team exceeded expectations

The Yankees did about a win worse than expected, with the home series against Seattle to end the month the biggest problem (this does include the game in July 1). It felt worse than that, but I think a big part of that was the drop in offense, as the team went from scoring 5.6 runs per game in April and 5.7 runs per game in May to 4.7 in June.

Player	month	pa	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	hbp	so	sb	cs	gdp	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	br
Derek Jeter	6	118	25	5	0	3	15	0	18	3	2	4	.243	.339	.379	.323	13
Mark Teixeira	6	116	25	6	0	5	13	3	20	0	1	1	.250	.353	.460	.359	16
Robinson Cano	6	113	34	6	0	4	9	2	11	0	0	3	.333	.398	.510	.398	19
Nick Swisher	6	117	25	5	1	4	13	0	22	0	1	2	.240	.325	.423	.328	14
Alex Rodriguez	6	90	20	6	0	4	8	0	13	0	0	2	.244	.311	.463	.333	12
Brett Gardner	6	71	23	2	2	1	9	2	12	6	1	0	.383	.479	.533	.450	14
Curtis Granderson	6	100	22	3	1	5	8	0	25	2	0	0	.239	.300	.457	.325	13
Jorge Posada	6	90	15	2	0	3	14	2	23	0	0	0	.203	.344	.351	.323	10
Francisco Cervelli	6	69	11	2	1	0	6	2	9	0	0	3	.180	.275	.246	.250	4
Marcus Thames	6	15	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	.071	.133	.071	.108	-1
Nick Johnson	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0
Ramiro Pena	6	25	3	0	0	0	2	1	4	1	0	0	.136	.240	.136	.200	1
Randy Winn	6	51	13	5	0	0	3	1	9	2	0	0	.277	.333	.383	.322	6
Kevin Russo	6	26	3	0	0	0	2	1	3	1	0	0	.130	.231	.130	.192	1
Juan Miranda	6	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0
Colin Curtis	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0
Chad Huffman	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0
Chad Moeller	6	6	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	.200	.333	.400	.327	1
Greg Golson	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
br: Total linear weights batting runs, not position-adjusted or compared to average/replacement level

Once again, Robinson Cano was the most valuable offensive player on the team although Brett Gardner has the best rate performance. Derek Jeter had a relatively rough month, and reality slammed into Francisco Cervelli’s over-sized batting helmet with extreme force. But in general, the team overall just didn’t have a good month offensively. The only players who hit at least as well as they projected entering the season were Cano and TSBG.

On the plus side, the team’s run prevention in June improved over May, falling to 4.3 from 4.4. Of course, that’s at least partially a function of only pitching to 88.9% of a major league lineup for a large part of the month, and a function of playing some bad teams.

pitcher	g	gs	ip	h	r	er	hr	bb	hbp	k	ra	era	fip	rsar
CC Sabathia	5	5	37.0	25	9	9	2	2	12	35	2.19	2.19	3.15	14.3
Javier Vazquez	6	6	39.0	26	14	14	6	2	12	35	3.23	3.23	4.48	10.6
Andy Pettitte	5	5	34.0	28	15	12	4	0	12	33	3.97	3.18	3.85	6.4
Phil Hughes	5	5	31.3	37	19	18	4	0	8	24	5.46	5.17	4.09	0.8
A.J. Burnett	5	5	23.0	35	29	29	9	3	17	19	11.35	11.35	9.24	-14.5
SP Total	26	26	164.33	151	86	82	25	7	61	146	4.71	4.49	4.64	17.6
pitcher	g	gs	ip	h	r	er	hr	bb	hbp	k	ra	era	fip	rsar
Mariano Rivera	11	0	13.0	4	0	0	0	1	2	16	0.00	0.00	1.43	7.5
David Robertson	9	0	9.0	8	1	1	0	0	4	9	1.00	1.00	2.53	4.2
Boone Logan	4	0	7.7	7	2	2	0	0	5	7	2.35	2.35	3.33	2.4
Joba Chamberlain	12	0	10.7	12	5	5	0	0	4	10	4.22	4.22	2.45	1.2
Sergio Mitre	1	0	2.0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.00	0.00	2.70	1.2
Chad Gaudin	7	0	12.7	12	7	7	2	1	7	7	4.97	4.97	6.04	0.3
Chan Ho Park	9	0	11.7	11	7	7	1	0	4	11	5.40	5.40	3.46	-0.2
Damaso Marte	8	0	5.3	2	4	4	1	0	5	3	6.75	6.75	7.33	-0.9
RP Total	61	0	72	57	26	26	4	2	32	65	3.25	3.25	3.53	15.8
SP + RP	87	26	236.33	208	112	108	29	9	93	211	4.27	4.11	4.30	33.4

A.J. Burnett’s June could’ve gone a little better. Phil Hughes also had a disappointing month, but the it’s tough to quibble with how Sabathia, Vazquez and Pettitte did. The bullpen had its best month of the season overall, with David Robertson finally starting to resemble the 2009 vintage. It’s easy to forget how dominant Mo can be at times, but look at that June line and marvel at his awesomeness.

Once again the Yankees ERA was lower than their FIP, this time to the tune of about six runs. So it’s probably a safe assumption that the defense played pretty well, even if they don’t deserve all the credit for that difference.

The Yankees’ run differential in June was by far their worst of the season, as they allowed 114 runs to go with the 128 runs scored, a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .554. So the Yankees may have been a bit fortunate to actually only miss their expectations by one game.

And since it was requested, here’s a WAR pie chart for the Yankees through Sunday’s games.

Not shown:

Boone Logan: 0.2
Romulo Sanchez: 0.2
Damaso Marte: 0.2
Juan Miranda: 0.2
Alfredo Aceves: 0.2
Ivan Nova: 0.2
A.J. Burnett: 0.1
Kevin Russo: 0.1
Sergio Mitre: 0.1
Greg Golson: 0.1
David Robertson: 0.0
Colin Curtis: 0.0
Chad Moeller: 0.0
Chad Huffman: -0.1
Dustin Moseley: -0.2
Mark Melancon: -0.3
Ramiro Pena: -0.3
Chan Ho Park: -0.3
Joba Chamberlain: -0.4

--Posted at 9:36 am by SG / 23 Comments | - (0)

Monday, July 12, 2010

2010 All Star Break Review - May Edition

After a solid April, the Yankees headed into May hoping to continue their winning ways.

On paper, the May schedule looked to be a bit easier than April’s. In terms of expected winning percentage, the Yankees were expect to win 12.3 of 21 games in April, a winning percentage of .585. May had 30 games scheduled, and their log5 expected wins was about 18.3, or a .609 winning percentage.

Series	Start Date	# Gms	xW	aW	diff
White Sox at Yankees	5/2/2010	3	1.9	2.0	0.1
Orioles at Yankees	5/5/2010	3	2.3	3.0	0.7
Yankees at Red Sox	5/9/2010	3	1.5	2.0	0.5
Yankees at Tigers	5/13/2010	4	2.3	1.0	-1.3
Twins at Yankees	5/16/2010	3	1.8	2.0	0.2
Red Sox at Yankees	5/18/2010	2	1.1	1.0	-0.1
Rays at Yankees	5/20/2010	2	1.1	0.0	-1.1
Yankees at Mets	5/23/2010	3	1.6	1.0	-0.6
Yankees at Twins	5/27/2010	3	1.6	2.0	0.4
Indians at Yankees	5/31/2010	4	2.8	3.0	0.2
Total		30	18.3	17.0	-1.3

xW: Expected wins for this series using log 5
aW: Actual wins
diff: Difference between xW and aW. Positive means team is ahead of their projected pace

The Yankees took care of business in the first three series they played, taking two of three against the White Sox and sweeping Baltimore before shipping up to Boston and taking two of three.

Then came a disappointing series in Detroit where they lost three of four, when they probably should have split.

They finished off the month by taking two of three from Minnesota at home then splitting a two-gamer with Boston. Then came the first series of the year were they didn’t win a game, as Tampa Bay came into DNYS and took a two-gamer. Next up came a three game exhibition series against the Mets in Flushing, where the Yankees dropped two of three. However, for some reason Bud Selig decided exhibition games should count so the Yanks got saddled with a series loss.

They finished up the month by doing what they should have done on the road against Minnesota and Cleveland, winning both series and finishing up the month with 17 wins, about one win less than log5 would have expected.

The Yankees scored 171 runs in May, an average of about 5.7 per game. That was a hair better than April. Here’s how the hitters performed.

Player	pa	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	hbp	so	sb	cs	gdp	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	br
Derek Jeter	140	36	7	0	1	9	3	23	2	0	2	.281	.343	.359	.320	16
Mark Teixeira	134	33	5	0	6	15	1	19	0	0	5	.280	.366	.475	.368	19
Robinson Cano	125	39	11	0	3	7	2	15	0	0	3	.336	.384	.509	.390	20
Nick Swisher	102	34	6	0	7	9	2	23	0	0	2	.374	.441	.670	.472	23
Alex Rodriguez	118	34	6	0	5	14	1	21	1	1	1	.330	.415	.534	.414	21
Brett Gardner	127	32	2	1	2	15	0	18	8	3	2	.286	.370	.375	.339	16
Curtis Granderson	18	5	3	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	.333	.444	.533	.434	3
Jorge Posada	35	11	4	0	1	4	0	7	0	0	0	.355	.429	.581	.434	7
Francisco Cervelli	84	23	3	2	0	8	1	14	0	0	1	.307	.381	.400	.353	11
Marcus Thames	57	10	1	0	1	9	3	15	0	0	0	.222	.386	.311	.341	6
Nick Johnson	17	4	2	0	1	3	0	2	0	0	1	.286	.412	.643	.441	3
Ramiro Pena	36	8	1	0	0	2	0	5	1	0	3	.235	.278	.265	.249	2
Randy Winn	56	12	0	1	1	8	0	10	1	0	1	.250	.357	.354	.326	6
Kevin Russo	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.250	.250	.250	.225	0
Juan Miranda	34	7	1	1	1	3	0	5	0	0	1	.226	.294	.419	.309	4

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
br: Total Linear weights batting runs, not position-adjusted or compared to average/replacement level

The injury bug hit the Yankees in May, with Curtis Granderson, Jorge Posada and Nick Johnson all going down, pressing Francisco Cervelli, Randy Winn and Juan Miranda into the lineup a bit more than you’d hope for. Cervelli was up to the task, but it’s probably safe to say the others weren’t so much.

Nick Swisher was the best offensive player on the team in May, hitting .374/.441/.670 with seven homers. Alex Rodriguez also had a good month, and although Cano dropped from otherworldly to really good he was also very valuable. Mark Teixeira also showed signs of life after a disastrous April.

In April the pitching staff allowed an average of 3.76 runs per game, but they fell off in May, going to 4.4 runs per game.

pitcher	g	gs	ip	h	r	er	hr	bb	hbp	k	ra	era	fip	rsar
Phil Hughes	6	6	38.7	35	13	13	3	0	8	39	3.03	3.03	2.81	11.4
A.J. Burnett	6	6	38.0	38	22	17	3	3	15	33	5.21	4.03	3.91	2.0
CC Sabathia	6	6	36.7	40	22	21	8	1	11	26	5.40	5.15	5.60	1.1
Andy Pettitte	5	5	31.3	29	11	10	4	0	7	16	3.16	2.87	4.51	8.8
Javier Vazquez	5	4	22.0	21	12	12	4	0	11	18	4.91	4.91	5.43	1.9
Total	28	27	167	163	80	73	22	4	52	132	4.32	3.94	4.34	25.1

rsar: runs saved above replacement level, calculated as n times league average RA minus pitcher RA time innings pitched, where n = 1.25 for starters and 1.15 for reliever.

May was the Phil Hughes show, as he was the most valuable pitcher on the team. Although his ERA went up by about a run, his FIP went down as he improved his walk rate from 5.5 batters per nine inning to 1.9. Andy Pettitte also continued to pitch well, and although Javier Vazquez’s final May line wasn’t very good, he ended the month pitching quite well. CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett both had rough months after good starts to the season.

Once again, the bullpen disappointed.

pitcher	g	gs	ip	h	r	er	hr	bb	hbp	k	ra	era	fip	rsar
Sergio Mitre	8	2	18.7	13	8	7	3	6	1	11	3.86	3.38	5.24	2.8
Joba Chamberlain	11	0	11.3	13	11	10	0	5	0	17	8.74	7.94	1.52	-4.4
David Robertson	11	0	11.0	13	7	7	2	8	1	11	5.73	5.73	6.02	-0.6
Boone Logan	10	0	8.3	10	5	5	1	5	0	4	5.40	5.40	5.60	-0.2
Chan Ho Park	6	0	7.7	14	8	8	3	2	0	6	9.39	9.39	7.50	-3.6
Mariano Rivera	8	0	7.3	5	5	3	1	2	0	4	6.14	3.68	4.70	-0.7
Damaso Marte	10	0	5.3	4	1	1	0	3	0	4	1.69	1.69	3.39	2.1
Mark Melancon	2	0	4.0	7	5	4	1	0	0	3	11.25	9.00	4.95	-2.7
Chad Gaudin	2	0	3.7	3	2	2	2	2	1	5	4.91	4.91	10.02	0.1
Romulo Sanchez	1	0	3.7	1	0	0	0	1	0	3	0.00	0.00	2.38	2.1
Alfredo Aceves	4	0	3.3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	2.60	1.9
Ivan Nova	2	0	3	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	2.53	1.7
Total	75	2	87	89	52	47	13	34	3	70	5.36	4.84	4.80	-1.3

Even Mo had a rough month before going down for a while with an oblique injury. Joba Chamberlain had three spectactular disaster games.

On May 16 he started teh eighth with a 3-1 lead. He did manage to get two outs in between allowing two singles and a walk to load the bases, at which point Mo came in and did things he’d only done four times in his career.
a) He walked in a run
b) He gave up a grand slam

Apparently, one implosion wasn’t good enough for Joba, as he came in two days later on May 18 in a home game against the Red Sox with a 5-1 lead, and proceeded to allow four hits and four runs as Boston tied the game. An error in the ninth allowed Boston to score one against Mo and the Yankees had one of the most painful losses of the season.

Apparently, that wasn’t good enough either, because on May 29 he once again turned what looked like a sure win into a loss. This time, he came in with the Yankees ahead 10-6. Despite the fact that Cleveland had runners on first and second, the Yankees had a win expectancy of about 95% since there were two outs.

- A single cut the lead to 10-7, and the win expectancy to 90%
- A walk loaded the bases and cut the win expectancy to 85%
- A double cut the lead to 10-9, and the win expectancy to 67%
- Another double put Cleveland ahead 11-10 and cut the Yankees’ win expectancy to 33%.
- Another single gave Cleveland another run and cut the Yankees’ win expectancy to 21%.

Joba finished up strong though, striking out Shin-Soo Choo to end the inning and moving the Yankees’ win expectancy back up to 22%.

And hey, his FIP was 1.52 in May, so that’s something. I know bebop was wondering about Joba’s BABIP and if we could expect it to get better, and I’ll try and get to that in a few days.

The rest of the pen really didn’t do anything of note, although it should be noted that Chan Ho Park’s ERA of 9.39 was almost two runs higher than his 7.50 FIP, so he may have been a little unlucky.

As far as the defense, once again the Yankees cumulative ERA(4.25) was lower than their FIP (4.50). The gap wasn’t quite as big as it was in April, but that’s a difference of about seven runs. Again, I don’t think we necessarily want to give all the credit for that to the defense, but I’m sure they deserve some of it.

Despite the frustrating games where Joba turned what looked like wins into losses, in the big picture May wasn’t really a bad month either. You could almost say that to this point, the Yankees had been consistent.

--Posted at 7:29 pm by SG / 23 Comments | - (0)

2010 All Star Break Review - April Edition

With the All Star Break’s arrival, we have a chance to look back at what’s happened so far in 2010 and think about what it means going forward. So here’s a look at the Yankees’ performance in April.

Series	Start Date	# Gms	xW	aW	diff
Yankees at Red Sox	4/7/2010	3	1.5	2.0	0.5
Yankees at Rays	4/11/2010	3	1.4	2.0	0.6
Angels at Yankees	4/15/2010	3	2.0	2.0	0.0
Rangers at Yankees	4/18/2010	3	1.7	3.0	1.3
Yankees at Athletics	4/22/2010	3	1.8	2.0	0.2
Yankees at Angels	4/25/2010	3	1.8	1.0	-0.8
Yankees at Orioles	4/29/2010	3	2.1	2.0	-0.1
Total		21	12.3	14.0	1.7

xW: Expected wins for this series using log 5
aW: Actual wins
diff: Difference between xW and aW. Positive means team is ahead of their projected pace

April had the potential to be a very rough month, with 15 of the first 21 games on the road, including the first six on the road against arguably two of the three best teams in baseball.

After dropping the season opener, the Yankees went on to win four of five games against Boston and Tampa Bay to jump a bit ahead of their log5 estimated pace. They then went home to win five of six against the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles and the Arlington Rangers of Texas. Next up came a six game west coast trip which saw the Yankees pick up two of three at Oakland before losing two of three to California. The Yankees then headed to Baltimore and finished out May by taking two of three.

The key series in April was the sweep of the Rangers, as it gave the Yankees an extra win over expectations.

The Yankees scored 118 runs during April, about 5.6 per game. Here’s how the hitters performed.

Player	pa	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	hbp	so	sb	cs	gdp	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	br
Robinson Cano	83	30	4	1	7	5	1	10	2	2	2	.390	.434	.740	.492	19
Derek Jeter	98	31	4	1	4	3	1	8	3	1	2	.330	.357	.521	.379	15
Jorge Posada	66	18	4	0	5	7	1	9	0	0	1	.310	.394	.638	.435	13
Alex Rodriguez	96	21	6	2	2	11	1	13	1	1	2	.250	.344	.440	.345	12
Nick Swisher	83	18	4	2	2	8	2	18	0	0	1	.247	.337	.438	.343	11
Brett Gardner	63	18	2	1	0	6	1	8	8	1	1	.321	.397	.393	.360	10
Curtis Granderson	82	16	2	2	1	9	0	16	4	0	0	.219	.305	.342	.292	8
Nick Johnson	81	8	2	0	1	21	2	21	0	1	1	.138	.383	.224	.318	8
Mark Teixeira	100	11	4	0	2	17	2	18	0	0	4	.136	.300	.259	.273	7
Marcus Thames	18	10	3	0	1	2	0	3	0	0	0	.625	.667	1.000	.695	7
Francisco Cervelli	15	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	.231	.333	.231	.285	1
Randy Winn	13	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	.077	.077	.077	.069	-1
Total	798	185	35	9	25	90	12	129	18	6	14	.266	.360	.450	.358	111

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
br: Total Linear weights batting runs, not position-adjusted or compared to average/replacement level

Robinson Cano obviously stormed out of the gate, as did Jorge Posada. Derek Jeter and Brett Gardner were also strong at the start. The rest of the starters were a bit underwhelming, although Marcus Thames did very well in his part-time role.

On the pitching side, it was all about the starting pitchers.

pitcher	g	gs	ip	h	r	er	hr	bb	hbp	k	ra	era	fip	rsar
CC Sabathia	5	5	34.7	25	13	12	2	12	1	28	3.38	3.12	3.46	8.9
Andy Pettitte	5	5	34.0	28	8	8	1	11	1	25	2.12	2.12	3.17	13.4
A.J. Burnett	5	5	33.3	31	10	9	1	9	3	20	2.70	2.43	3.47	11.0
Javier Vazquez	4	4	20.0	25	20	20	5	11	1	18	9.00	9.00	6.45	-7.4
Phil Hughes	3	3	18.0	6	4	4	1	11	0	18	2.00	2.00	3.76	7.4
Total	22	22	140	115	55	53	10	54	6	109	3.54	3.41	3.86	33.3

rsar: runs saved above replacement level, calculated as n times league average RA minus pitcher RA time innings pitched, where n = 1.25 for starters and 1.15 for reliever.

With one notable exception, the starting pitching was outstanding to start the season. CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes combined for about 40 runs saved above replacement level in 18 games. How good is that? To put it in perspective, if you had that rate of performance from your first four starting pitchers over a full season (132 games) you’d be 30 wins above a theoretical replacement level team. If replacement level is 60 wins, you’d win 90 games if the only thing you had was these four pitchers plus replacement level everywhere else.

The bullpen wasn’t quite as happy of a tale.

pitcher	g	gs	ip	h	r	er	hr	bb	hbp	k	ra	era	fip	rsar
Joba Chamberlain	11	0	10.3	10	4	4	1	3	0	10	3.48	3.48	3.39	2.0
Mariano Rivera	10	0	9.0	3	0	0	0	2	1	9	0.00	0.00	2.20	5.2
Alfredo Aceves	6	0	8.7	8	5	4	1	4	1	1	5.19	4.15	6.20	0.0
Chan Ho Park	3	0	5.7	6	4	3	2	0	0	3	6.35	4.76	6.73	-0.7
David Robertson	7	0	5.0	10	6	6	1	1	1	8	10.80	10.80	3.80	-3.1
Damaso Marte	9	0	4.7	4	3	3	1	3	1	3	5.79	5.79	7.27	-0.3
Sergio Mitre	3	0	4.3	2	1	1	0	2	0	2	2.08	2.08	3.66	1.5
Boone Logan	3	0	2.3	3	1	1	0	2	0	2	3.86	3.86	4.06	0.4
Total	52	0	50	46	24	22	6	17	4	38	4.32	3.96	4.50	-2.2

Before Joba Chamberlain became some hybrid of Juan Acevedo and Jose Veras, he was decent in April and of course Mo was Mo. The only real glaring weak spot was David Robertson, although in six innings anyone can look lousy, and his FIP was ok.

I don’t have the defensive data to look at the April split, although the team had a collective FIP of 4.03 compared to an ERA of 3.55. If you want to ascribe the entirety of that difference to the defense, they’d have been around a +10 overall. Of course, just because you need a large sample size of BABIP to ascertain a pitcher’s real skill doesn’t mean it’s not there, so it’s likely that at least some of that difference is due to the pitchers.

Anyway, unlike many recent Yankee teams, the Yankees started out well, which was nice.

--Posted at 11:56 am by SG / 44 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Who Should Be The All Star Game Starters for the AL?

I generally don’t really care who winds up on the All Star Team, although I’d always like to see the best players on the AL squad to guarantee Boston home field advantage in the World Series. I also don’t necessarily think an All Star berth should only rely on current season performance alone, but if that is the selection criteria, here are the top players at each position by my version of WAR, which uses the same basic methodology that Fangraphs uses, with the exception that I use an average of zone rating, John Dewan’s plus/minus DRS and UZR for defense, which is really just a way to regress the defensive portion of a player’s estimated value to deal with possible quirkiness in any single metric.

Player	Team	Lg	Pos	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BRAR	zRS	uRS	dRS	aRS	WAR
Justin Morneau	Twins	AL	1B	339	99	25	1	17	51	55	49	60	0	0	.344	.437	.615	.446	33.3	4.6	8.0	7.0	6.5	4.0
Kevin Youkilis	Red Sox	AL	1B	339	83	19	5	17	66	55	51	52	2	1	.299	.416	.586	.424	28.4	3.2	0.4	2.0	1.9	3.0
Miguel Cabrera	Tigers	AL	1B	338	100	26	0	20	61	71	40	50	2	3	.339	.417	.631	.441	32.7	0.9	-4.9	-6.0	-3.3	2.9
Mark Teixeira	Yankees	AL	1B	372	77	19	0	14	56	54	48	58	0	1	.243	.352	.435	.347	9.9	0.5	-3.6	-1.0	-1.4	0.9
Robinson Cano	Yankees	AL	2B	355	110	22	1	16	59	55	25	39	2	2	.342	.394	.565	.409	33.4	-0.7	5.6	13.0	6.0	3.9
Dustin Pedroia	Red Sox	AL	2B	341	86	24	1	12	52	41	36	36	8	1	.292	.370	.502	.374	25.8	4.0	6.2	8.0	6.1	3.2
Ian Kinsler	Rangers	AL	2B	260	66	15	0	3	44	27	37	33	8	3	.304	.412	.415	.374	16.3	7.1	2.8	5.0	5.0	2.1
Adrian Beltre	Red Sox	AL	3B	329	104	24	1	12	41	54	18	50	1	1	.340	.377	.542	.393	27.8	-1.3	4.4	7.0	3.4	3.1
Evan Longoria	Rays	AL	3B	361	94	25	3	12	49	60	37	69	12	2	.296	.368	.506	.375	28.0	1.5	1.6	6.0	3.0	3.1
Alex Rodriguez	Yankees	AL	3B	331	79	20	2	12	43	62	33	54	2	2	.272	.344	.479	.353	17.9	0.4	-0.3	5.0	1.7	2.0
Joe Mauer	Twins	AL	C	308	82	24	1	3	44	34	33	27	1	2	.303	.377	.432	.358	19.7	0.0	0.0	-1.0	-1.0	1.9
Victor Martinez	Red Sox	AL	C	270	71	20	0	9	36	38	22	25	1	0	.289	.344	.480	.355	19.0	0.6	0.3	-2.0	-2.0	1.7
Mike Napoli	Angels	AL	C	275	62	13	1	14	33	36	21	78	3	2	.255	.331	.490	.351	16.0	1.2	-0.4	0.0	0.0	1.6
Jorge Posada	Yankees	AL	C	209	47	11	0	9	26	28	28	42	0	0	.267	.373	.483	.372	13.6	0.0	0.0	-2.0	-2.0	1.2
Alex Rios	White Sox	AL	CF	317	87	18	1	13	49	45	21	40	22	8	.299	.353	.502	.368	22.6	-1.6	5.3	6.0	3.2	2.6
Vernon Wells	Blue Jays	AL	CF	335	84	24	1	19	45	48	24	49	4	1	.274	.328	.544	.366	24.6	1.3	-2.0	4.0	1.1	2.6
Torii Hunter	Angels	AL	CF	339	86	24	0	14	49	60	39	55	7	8	.296	.381	.522	.387	25.5	-1.9	-0.4	-1.0	-1.1	2.4
Austin Jackson	Tigers	AL	CF	320	91	19	4	1	48	20	19	84	13	3	.305	.353	.406	.337	14.0	3.2	5.2	13.0	7.1	2.1
Curtis Granderson	Yankees	AL	CF	226	46	8	4	7	31	23	22	49	6	0	.228	.305	.411	.312	7.3	4.0	4.9	5.0	4.6	1.2
Vladimir Guerrero	Rangers	AL	DH	331	99	14	1	18	52	70	20	29	4	3	.328	.372	.560	.394	19.5	-1.2	1.9	1.0	0.6	2.0
David Ortiz	Red Sox	AL	DH	280	61	18	0	17	44	54	42	71	0	1	.261	.371	.556	.391	16.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.1	1.6
Luke Scott	Orioles	AL	DH	253	61	17	1	12	35	30	25	56	1	0	.274	.348	.520	.368	11.9	0.0	-0.9	0.0	-0.3	1.2
Carl Crawford	Rays	AL	LF	342	98	20	6	7	63	42	29	50	29	8	.320	.377	.493	.376	22.1	5.3	15.2	14.0	11.5	3.4
Josh Hamilton	Rangers	AL	LF	343	108	23	2	20	55	61	23	68	6	1	.340	.385	.613	.420	33.7	-6.4	2.6	-1.0	-1.6	3.2
Brennan Boesch	Tigers	AL	LF	246	77	16	3	12	31	46	20	45	2	0	.344	.398	.603	.424	22.8	2.5	-0.7	4.0	1.9	2.5
Brett Gardner	Yankees	AL	LF	293	80	6	4	5	53	29	33	41	24	5	.314	.396	.427	.368	16.7	9.9	0.8	8.0	6.2	2.3
Shin-Soo Choo	Indians	AL	RF	354	86	14	2	13	48	43	48	59	12	4	.286	.390	.475	.380	20.4	3.4	2.1	7.0	4.2	2.5
Ichiro Suzuki	Mariners	AL	RF	368	110	17	2	3	34	24	28	42	22	7	.326	.380	.415	.356	14.6	6.5	10.4	13.0	10.0	2.5
Ben Zobrist	Rays	AL	RF	347	85	15	2	5	40	41	43	60	15	2	.288	.378	.403	.349	14.7	6.4	8.5	13.0	9.3	2.4
David DeJesus	Royals	AL	RF	346	102	22	3	5	43	35	31	41	3	3	.329	.396	.468	.381	19.1	5.8	2.6	-4.0	1.5	2.1
Magglio Ordonez	Tigers	AL	RF	305	85	15	1	10	48	51	33	29	1	0	.315	.387	.489	.381	17.2	2.9	3.6	-1.0	1.8	1.9
J.D. Drew	Red Sox	AL	RF	284	69	18	2	10	43	41	33	61	1	1	.280	.366	.492	.370	15.0	1.1	7.7	3.0	3.9	1.9
Jose Bautista	Blue Jays	AL	RF	342	67	17	2	21	50	52	50	66	3	2	.236	.360	.532	.379	22.9	-4.8	-5.8	-2.0	-4.2	1.9
Nick Swisher	Yankees	AL	RF	331	86	17	3	13	50	47	34	67	1	1	.296	.375	.509	.381	19.2	-3.8	-1.2	2.0	-1.0	1.8
Alex Gonzalez	Blue Jays	AL	SS	325	79	22	1	15	44	42	17	61	1	0	.258	.298	.484	.331	18.0	2.4	3.1	13.0	6.2	2.4
Alexei Ramirez	White Sox	AL	SS	296	79	14	1	8	32	33	14	39	2	6	.281	.314	.423	.320	9.8	9.5	8.6	19.0	12.4	2.2
Cliff Pennington	Athletics	AL	SS	306	72	15	5	3	35	27	30	53	12	2	.263	.333	.387	.320	12.7	9.0	1.6	8.0	6.2	1.9
Marco Scutaro	Red Sox	AL	SS	374	94	21	0	4	49	25	33	38	1	3	.279	.345	.377	.324	12.9	4.9	1.9	7.0	4.6	1.7
Derek Jeter	Yankees	AL	SS	378	96	16	1	8	55	39	31	51	9	3	.281	.347	.404	.333	16.7	-10.1	-0.4	2.0	-2.8	1.4

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BRAR: Position-adjusted linear weights batting runs above replacement level. This is position-adjusted, using a weighted adjustment based on whatever positions the player has played, so for example Brett Gardner’s position-adjustment is 62% LF, 37% CF, and 1% DH.
zRS: Zone rating runs saved compared to average (sum at all positions)
uRS: UZR runs saved compared to average (sum at all positions)
dRS: Plus/minus runs saved compared to average (sum at all positions)
aRS: Average of zRS, uRS and dRS
WAR: Wins above replacement (BRAR + aRS) divided by 10

I’ve also added the Yankee starter at each position if they were not in the top three.

--Posted at 12:43 pm by SG / 11 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, July 4, 2010

Yankees.com: In 10th-inning pinch, Thames delivers win

In his first at-bat since being activated off the disabled list, Thames’ pinch-hit bloop single off left-hander David Purcey in the bottom of the 10th lifted the Bombers to a wild 7-6 win over the Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium. It was the Yankees’ second walk-off win this season, and each time, the winning hit—and the subsequent whipped cream pie in the face—has belonged to Thames.

The most amazing part of the game was Posada not getting lapped on Brett Gardner’s inside the park HR.
As for the injury, X-rays negative on Posada’s finger.

Happy 234th Birthday, America.

--Posted at 8:33 pm by Jonathan / 28 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, June 12, 2010

The Star-Ledger: Yankees play powerball to beat Astros, 9-3

Posada has struggled since returning from the disabled list. And before the Yankees’ 9-3 victory against the Astros, he said that part of the issue has been getting used to life as a designated hitter. Without a routine between at-bats, he felt lost, and looked that way at the plate.

He was just 4-for-30 since his return with no extra base hits.

That all changed against the Astros. As the Yankees DH, Posada went 2-for-3 and put the Yankees ahead to stay with his third-inning grand slam.

It was a historic swing. The homer was Posada’s 250th, tying him with Graig Nettles for seventh on the franchise list.

I didn’t get to see the entire game yet, but apparently Vazquez threw fairly well outside of a few bad pitches. A brief scan of his pitch log indicates he was throwing his changeup a bit more (6 straight to Bourn in the 3rd for a K, apparently).

Hughes goes for the sweep tomorrow, coincidentally on Hughesday.

--Posted at 11:00 pm by Jonathan / 2 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

NY Daily News: New York Yankees catcher Jorge Posada set to return

Posada is slated to be back in the lineup Wednesday after missing the past 15 games with a fractured right foot, but the catcher was visibly irritated that the Yankees had opted not to activate him Tuesday night.

“I’d be happy if (Wednesday) was (Tuesday); I need to play,” Posada said. “I thought I was coming off the DL (Tuesday) and that I would be in there. They say no, so I can’t do nothing about it. Just get ready for (Wednesday).”

Hopefully Jorge picks up where he left off.

--Posted at 8:56 am by SG / 48 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Yankees.com: After inching forward, Vazquez takes a step back

MINNEAPOLIS—Javier Vazquez kept his outfielders busy and didn’t miss many bats on Thursday, serving up a healthy portion of hard-hit balls as the Twins defeated the Yankees, 8-2, at Target Field, avoiding what would have been a three-game sweep.

Jason Kubel homered twice and drove in five runs for Minnesota, belting a solo shot off Vazquez in the sixth inning and a three-run blast off Chad Gaudin in the seventh.

I know this is normally where the complaint thread goes, but I thought we should focus on the positives from tonight.

- Mark Teixeira managed two whole hits
- Robinson Cano continues to hit well with runners in scoring position
- Javier Vazquez allowed fewer runs than innings pitched.
- Chan Ho Park was able to successfully retire one of the four batters he faced
- Aside from the homer by Jason Kubel, I thought Chad Gaudin’s stuff looked nasty (in a good way)
- The Yankees won two of three against a very good team in their park
- KC beat Boston
- Jorge Posada may return sooner, not later
- Curtis Granderson will be back tomorrow

--Posted at 10:17 pm by SG / 10 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Yankees.com: Posada out three to four weeks

NEW YORK—An MRI on Jorge Posada’s ailing right foot revealed a hairline fracture on the bottom of the foot that will sideline the catcher for three to four weeks.

“Something was wrong, because I couldn’t walk right,” Posada said while sporting a boot on his right foot after the Yanks’ 10-6 loss to the Rays on Wednesday. “I’ve never had a problem with my feet before. This is something where you have to transfer your weight from one side to the other. This is something we have to take care of. I can’t really do too much.”

I disagree with Posada that he’s never had a problem with his feet before, but that’s a different issue.

In other news, the Tampa Bay Rays have clinched the 2010 World Series title. Congratulations to the team and their fans.

--Posted at 9:14 am by Jonathan / 53 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

How Good Are The 2010 Yankees Right Now (May 11)?

Heading into 2010, the Yankees looked like a team that projected to win around 96-97 games.

A lot of that was based on an offense that projected to be the best in baseball by most projection systems. Here’s how the primary starting lineup looked on a per game basis using their pre-season CAIRO projections for offense and defense.

Player (projected)	Pos	PA	OBP	Outs	BR	RS
Derek Jeter	SS	5.0	.371	3.1	0.69	-0.03
Nick Johnson	DH	5.0	.412	2.9	0.73	0.00
Mark Teixeira	1B	5.0	.379	3.1	0.84	0.02
Alex Rodriguez	3B	5.0	.389	3.1	0.89	-0.03
Robinson Cano	2B	5.0	.348	3.3	0.73	0.00
Jorge Posada	C	5.0	.352	3.2	0.70	-0.03
Curtis Granderson	CF	4.6	.338	3.0	0.64	0.04
Nick Swisher	RF	4.0	.355	2.6	0.55	0.00
Brett Gardner	LF	4.0	.348	2.6	0.48	0.02
Total		42.6		27.0	6.25	-0.01

PA: # of PA in a single game
OBP:projected OBP
Outs: Outs made at the plate, equals PA times (1 minus OBP)
BR: Linear weights batting runs for listed PA

Here’s how the primary lineup has actually performed so far.

Player (actual)	Pos	PA	OBP	Outs	BR	RS
Derek Jeter	SS	5.0	.324	3.4	0.63	-0.10
Nick Johnson	DH	5.0	.388	3.1	0.57	-0.03
Mark Teixeira	1B	5.0	.336	3.3	0.61	0.06
Alex Rodriguez	3B	5.0	.381	3.1	0.73	0.05
Robinson Cano	2B	5.0	.406	3.0	1.01	0.04
Jorge Posada	C	5.0	.365	3.2	0.84	-0.06
Curtis Granderson	CF	4.6	.311	3.2	0.52	0.10
Nick Swisher	RF	4.0	.394	2.4	0.73	-0.02
Brett Gardner	LF	4.0	.418	2.3	0.66	0.10
Total		42.6		26.9	6.30	0.14

In actuality, despite poor starts by several players, the primary starting lineup has actually exceeded those projections slightly so far this season, with the better than expected play by Robinson Cano, Jorge Posada and Nick Swisher making up for the poorer than expected play by Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter. They’ve also been better defensively thanks to better than expected play by Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano primarily.

The problem is that the desired primary starting lineup is not the lineup that the Yankees can run out there right now with Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson on the shelf. While Granderson should be back relatively soon, Nick Johnson plus wrist injury is not something I’d expect a speedy return from.

We also have more information after 31 games which we can use to revise our pre-season projections somewhat, although the sample size is still small enough that the pre-season projections should still be the bulk of what we expect going forward.

If we assume that Joe Girardi has finally figured out that Marcus Thames in LF is not an option, here’s how the Yankees’ primary lineup at this point in time would project going forward.

Player (revised projection)	Pos	PA	OBP	Outs	BR	RS
Derek Jeter	SS	5.0	.366	3.2	0.68	-0.03
Brett Gardner	CF	5.0	.355	3.2	0.62	0.08
Mark Teixeira	1B	5.0	.375	3.1	0.82	0.03
Alex Rodriguez	3B	5.0	.388	3.1	0.87	-0.02
Robinson Cano	2B	5.0	.354	3.2	0.76	0.00
Jorge Posada	C	4.8	.353	3.1	0.69	-0.04
Nick Swisher	RF	4.0	.359	2.6	0.57	0.00
Marcus Thames	DH	4.0	.300	2.8	0.49	0.00
Randy Winn	LF	4.0	.314	2.7	0.42	0.06
Total		41.8		27.0	5.92	0.07

If we use the Yankees’ current RA against of 3.88 with the original projected starting lineup, we get a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .715, or 116 wins. If you instead use the revised projections of the current starting lineup, you get a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .700. That’s 113 wins. The problem here is this alignment projects that Gardner in CF and Winn in LF is a better defensive alignment than Gardner in LF and Granderson in CF, and I think that’s overrating Winn and underrating Gardner in LF. I don’t think it’s more than a wash, which makes it more like a .693/112 win team. Even factoring that in, over a subset of n games where n is only a portion of 162 games, that’s not really that big of a difference. Maybe a win or two? If Nick Johnson is out for the year, a Juan Miranda/Thames DH platoon is probably a bit better than straight Thames as well.

Now obviously, you’re not going to get 162 games out of your starting lineup, so we have to temper those 100+ win estimates down to a more reasonable estimate, but I’m just looking at the delta for now. We also need to assume that moving some of the bench guys to the starting lineup also weakens the bench somewhat. We also can’t assume the Yankees will maintain a 3.88 RA going forward. I don’t have time to do a detailed breakdown of the pitching, but I’ll summarize it. Right now I’d project them to end the season at 709 runs allowed, an overall RA against of 4.38, which means an RA of around 4.53 going forward. That’s assuming some regression by the starters, which is bad for four of the five, but good for the fifth starter who will not be named. It’s also based on improvement by the bullpen, and it’s an overall improvement of about 20 runs from their pre-season runs allowed projection. If that’s the case, the primary lineup would be more like a 108 win team, with the currently revised and re-projected lineup being more like a 104 win team, again with the caveat that we need to temper that down to account for the bench and possible future injuries.

Right now, the Yankees are still about five wins ahead of their original projected pace according to my Monte Carlo simulator. They are projected at 101.6 wins, and with a 48.4% chance at the division and a 79.7% chance at the postseason, which is the best probability of any team. Actually, here’s the whole list.

Team	W	pW	w+/-	ppo%	opo%
Yankees	101.6	96.1	5.5	79.7%	63.0%
Cardinals	95.3	90.6	4.7	72.8%	50.9%
Rays	99.4	91.2	8.1	72.4%	46.1%
Phillies	94.5	89.7	4.8	67.2%	48.0%
Twins	89.8	83.1	6.7	61.0%	34.8%
Rangers	86.9	84.4	2.5	52.0%	38.9%
Giants	86.2	81.1	5.1	37.9%	23.3%
Red Sox	88.8	92.9	-4.1	31.6%	53.0%
Rockies	84.1	83.8	0.3	29.4%	30.3%
Athletics	81.7	79.2	2.5	28.6%	23.8%
Braves	84.5	88.3	-3.8	28.0%	42.9%
Padres	82.5	75.9	6.6	26.0%	13.2%
Tigers	81.7	77.9	3.8	25.1%	19.9%
Dodgers	82.0	86.3	-4.3	23.7%	38.5%
Brewers	81.6	81.6	0.0	21.2%	23.5%
Reds	81.6	80.6	1.0	20.0%	21.3%
Mets	80.5	76.1	4.4	18.4%	13.0%
Cubs	80.2	83.1	-2.9	17.7%	27.2%
Mariners	76.0	81.4	-5.4	13.6%	29.4%
Nationals	78.0	74.8	3.2	12.9%	11.1%
Angels	74.3	78.0	-3.7	12.5%	21.6%
Marlins	77.6	80.0	-2.4	11.6%	19.3%
White Sox	75.4	79.8	-4.4	11.3%	24.8%
Diamondbacks	76.7	82.2	-5.5	10.3%	25.6%
Indians	74.0	79.9	-5.9	7.5%	25.4%
Royals	67.8	71.5	-3.7	3.0%	9.3%
Pirates	68.5	72.3	-3.8	2.4%	7.6%
Blue Jays	70.6	65.1	5.5	1.4%	1.9%
Orioles	66.7	74.6	-7.9	0.6%	8.3%
Astros	61.5	68.8	-7.3	0.5%	4.4%

pW: Re-projected wins
opW: Original projected wins
pW+/-:pW - opW

So I guess my initial assertion that the Yankees at this moment aren’t as good as they projected to be is technically true, but not significantly so. Apparently a two-game losing streak doesn’t mean it’s time to panic.

--Posted at 10:02 am by SG / 46 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, May 8, 2010

Yankees.com: Teixeira belts three homers to power Yanks

BOSTON—Mark Teixeira homered before and after the rains came, and Francisco Cervelli drove in three runs to pace the Yankees’ offensive attack in a 14-3 victory over the Red Sox on Saturday at Fenway Park.

Teixeira cracked a solo shot to give New York the lead off Boston starter Clay Buchholz in the fifth and belted another in the seventh off Ramon Ramirez, as the slugging first baseman doubled his homer output for the season in one afternoon.

With the Red Sox using reserve outfielder Jonathan Van Every to pitch the ninth, Teixeira belted a two-run homer off the light tower above the Green Monster.

Playing once again behind the plate in place of Jorge Posada, Cervelli notched five RBIs with a pair of singles, notching a run-scoring hit in the fourth and another in the fifth that chased home two runs, helping New York to its sixth consecutive victory.

Even a rash of injuries that would have made the 2009 Mets shake their heads can’t stop the Yankees right now.

Teixeira entered today’s hitting this game hitting .181/.328/.295 and ends it hitting .207/.343/.396. And you have to love what Cervelli’s been doing with Jorge Posada out injured, even if it’s a fluke.

Of course, no game would be complete without more injuries. This time, it’s Alfredo Aceves who was forced to leave with lower back stiffness.

To be honest, with how banged up they are, I had hoped the Yankees would just take one of these three games, but now anything less than a sweep would be unacceptable.

--Posted at 7:22 pm by SG / 75 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Yankee WAR Pie Chart Through Games of May 5, 2010

At 19-8, the Yankees have played at a pace that the mighty 1998 Yankees would have been proud of. More impressively, they were able to do it through what on paper looked like the hardest part of their schedule, although our estimates of the strength of the opposition may change as we move through the season.

So why have the Yankees been so good so far? It’s Pie Chart time!

WAR stands for wins above replacement. For position players it consists of batting runs above position-adjusted replacement level plus defense saved compared to average using an average of zone rating and UZR. For pitchers it’s just runs saved compared to a a replacement level pitcher using runs allowed per nine. These are context-neutral values, so they aren’t going to necessarily line up with actual game values once you factor in context.

Negative values don’t work with pie charts, so here’s the full list:

Player	WAR
Andy Pettitte	1.5
Robinson Cano	1.5
A.J. Burnett	1.4
CC Sabathia	1.2
Phil Hughes	1.1
Brett Gardner	0.9
Jorge Posada	0.7
Nick Swisher	0.7
Alex Rodriguez	0.6
Mariano Rivera	0.5
Curtis Granderson	0.4
Derek Jeter	0.4
Marcus Thames	0.4
Francisco Cervelli	0.3
Joba Chamberlain	0.3
Sergio Mitre	0.2
Alfredo Aceves	0.1
Boone Logan	0.1
Nick Johnson	0.0
Damaso Marte	0.0
Greg Golson	0.0
Mark Teixeira	0.0
Chan Ho Park	-0.1
Randy Winn	-0.1
Mark Melancon	-0.2
Ramiro Pena	-0.2
David Robertson	-0.6
Javier Vazquez	-1.1

As a team, the Yankees have been 10.2 wins above replacement level. I set replacement level at around 50 wins per 162 games, so over 27 games a replacement level team would win about 8.3 games. So those eight wins plus the 10.2 WAR = 18.5 wins, which is essentially what the Yankees have actually done.

Random fun with small sample sizes:

- Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes have combined for more than half of the team WAR at 5.3.

- Robinson Cano has been more valuable Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira COMBINED.

- TSBG = 0.9 WAR. A-Rod + Jeter + Teixeira = 0.9 WAR.

- The Yankee bullpen has combined for 0.4 WAR. Mariano Rivera has been worth 0.5 WAR.

Anyway, as always, remember that sample size is an issue, and that we should still expect players to play closer to how they projected to play going forward than how they’ve done so far this year. However, what’s happened so far can inform our going forward projections, so we shouldn’t ignore that either.

--Posted at 8:56 am by SG / 58 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

MLB.com: Posada, Mo day-to-day for Yanks

NEW YORK—At the same moment Yankees catcher Jorge Posada was heading to a New York hospital for an unscheduled MRI examination on his right calf, closer Mariano Rivera sat in the bullpen watching a non-save situation pass with stiffness in his left side.

The Yankees have their fingers crossed that neither player will require a stint on the disabled list, and they may get lucky. Manager Joe Girardi said after Monday’s 4-1 win over the Orioles that Rivera could be available on Tuesday, and results of the MRI revealed a mild calf strain for Posada, who is considered day-to-day and may be available to catch again by Friday.

Neither one sounds major, but it’d be nice to have them back in time for the Red Sox.

--Posted at 11:09 am by SG / 34 Comments | - (0)

Friday, April 30, 2010

Gaps Between Projected and Actual 2010 wOBA through April 29*

Rank	player	team	pa	a_woba	p_woba	diff
1	Colby Rasmus	Cardinals	78	.509	.336	11.7
2	Robinson Cano	Yankees	90	.504	.362	11.1
3	Kelly Johnson	Diamondbacks	89	.483	.345	10.7
4	Vernon Wells	Blue Jays	97	.440	.325	9.7
5	Justin Morneau	Twins	91	.477	.361	9.1
6	Paul Konerko	White Sox	88	.458	.349	8.4
7	Ivan Rodriguez	Nationals	64	.408	.271	7.6
8	Nelson Cruz	Rangers	74	.475	.360	7.4
9	Casey McGehee	Brewers	90	.414	.320	7.3
10	Austin Jackson	Tigers	104	.380	.299	7.2
11	Alex Gonzalez	Blue Jays	98	.362	.280	7.0
12	Ty Wigginton	Orioles	72	.441	.332	6.8
13	Martin Prado	Braves	98	.404	.331	6.2
14	Andruw Jones	White Sox	66	.426	.318	6.2
15	Franklin Gutierrez	Mariners	93	.393	.318	6.1
16	Kosuke Fukudome	Cubs	74	.424	.330	6.0
17	Carl Crawford	Rays	96	.406	.334	6.0
18	Jose Guillen	Royals	94	.388	.316	5.9
19	Daric Barton	Athletics	95	.404	.333	5.8
20	Michael Bourn	Astros	82	.379	.300	5.6
21	Pablo Sandoval	Giants	93	.443	.374	5.6
22	Geovany Soto	Cubs	66	.443	.351	5.2
23	Nyjer Morgan	Nationals	94	.362	.301	5.0
24	Jorge Posada	Yankees	65	.438	.351	4.9
25	Andy LaRoche	Pirates	61	.415	.325	4.7
26	Josh Willingham	Nationals	92	.409	.350	4.7
27	Bengie Molina	Giants	68	.378	.299	4.7
28	Jim Edmonds	Brewers	66	.382	.304	4.5
29	Adrian Gonzalez	Padres	94	.423	.370	4.4
30	Ryan Braun	Brewers	103	.434	.385	4.4
31	Andre Ethier	Dodgers	82	.422	.364	4.2
32	Elvis Andrus	Rangers	85	.342	.286	4.1
33	Juan Uribe	Giants	69	.370	.303	4.0
34	Magglio Ordonez	Tigers	102	.405	.360	3.9
35	Shin-Soo Choo	Indians	93	.431	.383	3.9
36	Jayson Werth	Phillies	88	.411	.361	3.9
37	Cliff Pennington	Athletics	86	.346	.294	3.9
38	Jeff Francoeur	Mets	90	.356	.308	3.8
39	Scott Podsednik	Royals	88	.368	.319	3.8
40	Adam LaRoche	Diamondbacks	78	.416	.361	3.7
41	Jorge Cantu	Marlins	94	.369	.324	3.7
42	Marlon Byrd	Cubs	91	.378	.334	3.5
43	Evan Longoria	Rays	96	.409	.367	3.5
44	Chase Utley	Phillies	98	.426	.386	3.4
45	Chase Headley	Padres	93	.360	.318	3.4
46	Ryan Doumit	Pirates	79	.378	.329	3.4
47	Carlos Gonzalez	Rockies	79	.390	.343	3.2
48	Rickie Weeks	Brewers	109	.373	.339	3.2
49	David DeJesus	Royals	99	.372	.335	3.2
50	Casey Blake	Dodgers	80	.372	.326	3.2
51	Rafael Furcal	Dodgers	90	.355	.315	3.2
52	Dan Uggla	Marlins	94	.385	.346	3.2
53	Brandon Inge	Tigers	96	.342	.304	3.1
54	Adam Rosales	Athletics	60	.369	.310	3.1
55	Kurt Suzuki	Athletics	67	.365	.313	3.0
56	Miguel Cabrera	Tigers	105	.435	.402	3.0
57	Jason Heyward	Braves	85	.372	.332	3.0
58	B.J. Upton	Rays	91	.372	.335	2.9
59	Carlos Gomez	Brewers	70	.336	.288	2.9
60	Ryan Theriot	Cubs	104	.343	.311	2.9
61	Johnny Damon	Tigers	97	.372	.339	2.8
62	David Wright	Mets	96	.406	.373	2.7
63	Matt Kemp	Dodgers	104	.382	.352	2.7
64	David Freese	Cardinals	72	.361	.318	2.7
65	Mark Teahen	White Sox	66	.365	.318	2.7
66	Stephen Drew	Diamondbacks	88	.367	.332	2.7
67	Scott Rolen	Reds	75	.373	.334	2.5
68	Chris Snyder	Diamondbacks	62	.377	.331	2.5
69	Jeff Keppinger	Astros	69	.348	.307	2.4
70	Ian Stewart	Rockies	88	.390	.358	2.4
71	Yuniesky Betancourt	Royals	86	.325	.293	2.4
72	Edgar Renteria	Giants	82	.341	.307	2.4
73	Carlos Ruiz	Phillies	66	.359	.318	2.4
74	Torii Hunter	Angels	93	.378	.350	2.3
75	Alberto Callaspo	Royals	92	.368	.341	2.2
76	Jason Kendall	Royals	85	.322	.292	2.2
77	Ryan Ludwick	Cardinals	97	.374	.348	2.1
78	Kendry Morales	Angels	91	.379	.352	2.1
79	Casey Kotchman	Mariners	81	.358	.329	2.0
80	Gaby Sanchez	Marlins	75	.377	.349	1.9
81	Josh Hamilton	Rangers	89	.376	.353	1.8
82	Adam Lind	Blue Jays	98	.373	.354	1.7
83	Brett Gardner	Yankees	70	.346	.319	1.6
84	Placido Polanco	Phillies	90	.343	.322	1.6
85	David Eckstein	Padres	82	.304	.282	1.6
86	Luis Castillo	Mets	73	.322	.297	1.6
87	Vladimir Guerrero	Rangers	89	.391	.372	1.4
88	Carlos Guillen	Tigers	69	.371	.347	1.4
89	Albert Pujols	Cardinals	96	.449	.432	1.4
90	Blake DeWitt	Dodgers	64	.331	.306	1.4
91	Mark Reynolds	Diamondbacks	92	.378	.361	1.3
92	Hideki Matsui	Angels	96	.362	.347	1.3
93	Ichiro Suzuki	Mariners	98	.347	.332	1.3
94	Ian Desmond	Nationals	71	.311	.291	1.2
95	Jose Bautista	Blue Jays	101	.334	.320	1.2
96	Michael Cuddyer	Twins	99	.351	.338	1.2
97	Corey Hart	Brewers	67	.351	.333	1.1
98	Russell Martin	Dodgers	80	.356	.342	1.0
99	Orlando Hudson	Twins	101	.336	.325	1.0
100	Will Venable	Padres	78	.334	.322	0.8
101	Alcides Escobar	Brewers	81	.307	.297	0.7
102	Bobby Abreu	Angels	97	.358	.350	0.7
103	Cesar Izturis	Orioles	65	.291	.279	0.7
104	Alfonso Soriano	Cubs	77	.349	.340	0.6
105	Nick Swisher	Yankees	83	.359	.350	0.6
106	Ryan Sweeney	Athletics	96	.331	.323	0.6
107	Howie Kendrick	Angels	84	.341	.334	0.6
108	Jason Bay	Mets	93	.367	.361	0.5
109	Alex Rios	White Sox	85	.337	.331	0.4
110	Adrian Beltre	Red Sox	81	.332	.326	0.4
111	Brian McCann	Braves	78	.365	.359	0.3
112	Luis Valbuena	Indians	61	.311	.306	0.3
113	John Baker	Marlins	62	.325	.320	0.3
114	Yadier Molina	Cardinals	84	.318	.315	0.2
115	Marco Scutaro	Red Sox	95	.333	.331	0.1
116	Miguel Tejada	Orioles	77	.333	.332	0.1
117	Joey Votto	Reds	95	.387	.386	0.0
118	Jason Bartlett	Rays	98	.327	.327	0.0
119	Garrett Jones	Pirates	98	.330	.331	-0.1
120	Erick Aybar	Angels	92	.310	.313	-0.2
121	Dustin Pedroia	Red Sox	103	.362	.364	-0.2
122	Scott Sizemore	Tigers	66	.302	.307	-0.3
123	Mike Fontenot	Cubs	60	.315	.322	-0.4
124	Asdrubal Cabrera	Indians	92	.321	.327	-0.4
125	John Buck	Blue Jays	67	.292	.300	-0.5
126	Andrew McCutchen	Pirates	101	.342	.348	-0.5
127	Joe Mauer	Twins	91	.391	.398	-0.6
128	Carlos Pena	Rays	91	.374	.382	-0.6
129	Pat Burrell	Rays	64	.324	.335	-0.6
130	Jack Wilson	Mariners	65	.273	.287	-0.8
131	Adam Dunn	Nationals	92	.363	.372	-0.8
132	Derek Jeter	Yankees	95	.343	.352	-0.8
133	Dexter Fowler	Rockies	89	.332	.343	-0.8
134	Nick Markakis	Orioles	99	.359	.369	-0.9
135	Jay Bruce	Reds	86	.335	.347	-0.9
136	Troy Tulowitzki	Rockies	96	.358	.370	-1.0
137	Pedro Feliz	Astros	76	.275	.291	-1.1
138	Juan Rivera	Angels	83	.304	.319	-1.1
139	Chipper Jones	Braves	73	.367	.385	-1.1
140	Aubrey Huff	Giants	86	.306	.322	-1.2
141	Kevin Youkilis	Red Sox	98	.372	.388	-1.4
142	Adam Kennedy	Nationals	64	.274	.299	-1.4
143	Rick Ankiel	Royals	67	.306	.331	-1.4
144	Delmon Young	Twins	67	.293	.318	-1.4
145	Cristian Guzman	Nationals	83	.288	.311	-1.7
146	Cameron Maybin	Marlins	92	.296	.317	-1.7
147	Kyle Blanks	Padres	79	.305	.330	-1.7
148	Gregg Zaun	Brewers	67	.271	.303	-1.9
149	Jhonny Peralta	Indians	79	.295	.323	-2.0
150	Brandon Phillips	Reds	96	.300	.324	-2.0
151	Angel Pagan	Mets	77	.284	.314	-2.0
152	Orlando Cabrera	Reds	88	.270	.298	-2.1
153	J.J. Hardy	Twins	85	.288	.318	-2.2
154	Billy Butler	Royals	96	.351	.378	-2.3
155	Rod Barajas	Mets	67	.245	.286	-2.4
156	Ryan Howard	Phillies	96	.352	.382	-2.5
157	Mark DeRosa	Giants	73	.295	.335	-2.5
158	Curtis Granderson	Yankees	83	.311	.346	-2.5
159	Milton Bradley	Mariners	62	.319	.367	-2.6
160	Raul Ibanez	Phillies	81	.314	.351	-2.6
161	Ronny Cedeno	Pirates	78	.243	.281	-2.6
162	Jason Kubel	Twins	83	.315	.352	-2.7
163	Hanley Ramirez	Marlins	96	.364	.397	-2.7
164	Matt Holliday	Cardinals	91	.348	.384	-2.8
165	Cody Ross	Marlins	83	.296	.335	-2.9
166	Eric Chavez	Athletics	72	.253	.300	-2.9
167	Akinori Iwamura	Pirates	92	.290	.327	-2.9
168	Ben Zobrist	Rays	94	.314	.352	-3.2
169	Carlos Quentin	White Sox	87	.323	.364	-3.2
170	Chone Figgins	Mariners	95	.292	.332	-3.3
171	Jose Reyes	Mets	83	.285	.331	-3.4
172	Drew Stubbs	Reds	79	.283	.332	-3.4
173	Everth Cabrera	Padres	73	.255	.309	-3.4
174	Jerry Hairston	Padres	66	.221	.281	-3.4
175	Kevin Kouzmanoff	Athletics	94	.273	.317	-3.6
176	Todd Helton	Rockies	80	.321	.373	-3.6
177	Skip Schumaker	Cardinals	93	.276	.321	-3.7
178	Matt Wieters	Orioles	85	.321	.372	-3.8
179	Jonny Gomes	Reds	63	.266	.335	-3.8
180	Travis Snider	Blue Jays	79	.266	.323	-3.9
181	James Loney	Dodgers	97	.294	.340	-3.9
182	Nick Johnson	Yankees	78	.318	.376	-4.0
183	Shane Victorino	Phillies	95	.281	.330	-4.1
184	Lastings Milledge	Pirates	88	.263	.316	-4.1
185	Brendan Ryan	Cardinals	72	.229	.297	-4.2
186	Jeff Clement	Pirates	69	.264	.337	-4.4
187	Travis Hafner	Indians	77	.289	.355	-4.4
188	Nolan Reimold	Orioles	67	.281	.356	-4.4
189	Troy Glaus	Braves	80	.278	.343	-4.5
190	Garrett Atkins	Orioles	65	.251	.332	-4.6
191	Denard Span	Twins	104	.302	.352	-4.6
192	Rajai Davis	Athletics	87	.248	.309	-4.7
193	Prince Fielder	Brewers	101	.351	.406	-4.8
194	Luke Scott	Orioles	72	.285	.362	-4.8
195	Justin Upton	Diamondbacks	97	.306	.364	-4.9
196	Alexei Ramirez	White Sox	73	.240	.318	-4.9
197	Alex Rodriguez	Yankees	94	.338	.399	-5.0
198	Nate McLouth	Braves	65	.248	.338	-5.1
199	Michael Young	Rangers	97	.280	.341	-5.1
200	Lyle Overbay	Blue Jays	93	.266	.334	-5.5
201	Melky Cabrera	Braves	83	.238	.315	-5.5
202	Yunel Escobar	Braves	88	.263	.336	-5.6
203	Derrek Lee	Cubs	99	.307	.373	-5.7
204	Gordon Beckham	White Sox	87	.287	.364	-5.9
205	Matt LaPorta	Indians	62	.243	.354	-6.0
206	Victor Martinez	Red Sox	83	.287	.371	-6.1
207	Brandon Wood	Angels	66	.206	.314	-6.2
208	A.J. Pierzynski	White Sox	69	.206	.310	-6.2
209	Juan Pierre	White Sox	92	.222	.303	-6.5
210	Hunter Pence	Astros	81	.252	.348	-6.8
211	Julio Borbon	Rangers	69	.210	.327	-7.0
212	Adam Jones	Orioles	101	.253	.337	-7.4
213	Grady Sizemore	Indians	82	.257	.367	-7.8
214	J.D. Drew	Red Sox	85	.267	.375	-8.0
215	Mark Teixeira	Yankees	96	.267	.390	-10.3
216	Carlos Lee	Astros	82	.196	.343	-10.5
217	Chris Coghlan	Marlins	82	.189	.344	-11.0
218	Aramis Ramirez	Cubs	97	.224	.381	-13.2

a_woba: 2010 actual weighted on-base average.
p_woba: Average projected wOBA using CHONE, Marcel, Oliver, PECOTA, ZiPS and CAIRO
diff: Difference in run value (a_woba - p_woba) divided by 1.15 times PA

*minimum of 60 PA

--Posted at 12:57 pm by SG / 9 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Yankee Run Values Through Games of April 28, 2010

As promised, here’s how the Yankees look in terms of YTD performance.

Player	Team	Lg	Pos	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	GDP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAA	BRAR	zRS	uRS	aRS	WAR
Robinson Cano	Yankees	AL	2B	86	30	4	1	6	6	10	1	2	2	2	.390	.430	.701	.468	19	9	12	-2	-3	-2	0.9
Jorge Posada	Yankees	AL	C	65	18	4	0	5	7	8	1	1	0	0	.316	.400	.649	.438	13	5	9	0	0	-1	0.8
Alex Rodriguez	Yankees	AL	3B	90	20	5	2	2	11	12	1	2	1	1	.260	.356	.455	.353	12	1	5	-1	2	1	0.5
Nick Swisher	Yankees	AL	RF	78	19	4	2	2	9	16	2	1	0	0	.284	.385	.493	.382	12	3	4	1	-1	0	0.5
Curtis Granderson	Yankees	AL	CF	79	17	2	2	2	9	16	0	0	4	0	.243	.329	.414	.327	10	1	3	1	1	1	0.5
Brett Gardner	Yankees	AL	LF	66	18	1	1	0	7	7	1	1	9	1	.310	.394	.362	.348	10	2	3	2	-1	1	0.4
Francisco Cervelli	Yankees	AL	C	21	8	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	.444	.524	.500	.462	4	2	3	0	0	0	0.3
Marcus Thames	Yankees	AL	LF	16	7	2	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	.500	.563	.857	.591	5	3	3	-1	-2	-2	0.2
Derek Jeter	Yankees	AL	SS	90	26	4	0	3	3	8	1	2	3	1	.306	.333	.459	.342	12	1	5	-5	-2	-4	0.2
Ramiro Pena	Yankees	AL	SS	9	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	.111	.111	.111	.100	0	-1	-1	1	0	1	0.0
Nick Johnson	Yankees	AL	1B	78	8	2	0	1	20	20	2	1	0	1	.143	.385	.232	.318	8	-2	-1	0	0	0	-0.1
Mark Teixeira	Yankees	AL	1B	92	10	3	0	2	15	18	2	4	0	0	.133	.293	.253	.265	7	-4	-3	1	0	1	-0.2
Randy Winn	Yankees	AL	RF	13	1	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	.077	.077	.077	.069	-1	-2	-2	0	-1	0	-0.3

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs, not position adjusted
BRAA: Batting runs above an average player, not position-adjusted
BRAR: Batting runs above a replacement level player, position-adjusted
zRS: Runs saved compared to an average defender using zone rating:
uRS: Runs saved compared to an average defender using UZR:
aRS: Average of zRS and uRS
WAR: Wins above replacement, calculated as (BRAR + aRS) divided by 10

Robinson Cano’s been a monster offensively this season. Here are the AL leaders to this point.

Vernon Wells: 13.5 BRAR
Robinson Cano: 11.7 BRAR
Nelson Cruz: 11.1 BRAR
Justin Morneau: 10.2 BRAR
Miguel Cabrera: 9.5 BRAR
Evan Longoria: 8.8 BRAR
Jorge Posada: 8.7 BRAR
Ty Wigginton: 8.7 BRAR
Joe Mauer: 8.6 BRAR
Alex Gonzalez: 8.5 BRAR

Posada sneaks into this list too.

Unfortunately , Cano’s defense as reflected by both zone rating and UZR to this point takes away some of his value, although we have the standard caveats about the reliability of fielding metrics and the small sample size of 20 games that we need to take into account.

Hopefully Posada won’t need to miss too much time after being hit in the knee last night.

Would you be surprised if I told you that Cano has not been the most valuable Yankee this year?

Player	Team	Lg	Role	G	GS	IP	TBF	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	FRSAR	WAR
Andy Pettitte	Yankees	AL	SP	4	4	28.0	109	21	4	4	0	9	22	1.29	1.29	2.70	10.5	13.4	8.0	1.3
CC Sabathia	Yankees	AL	SP	5	5	34.7	135	25	13	12	2	12	28	3.38	3.12	3.46	4.9	8.5	6.9	0.8
Phil Hughes	Yankees	AL	SP	3	3	18.0	69	6	4	4	1	11	18	2.00	2.00	3.76	5.3	7.2	3.0	0.7
A.J. Burnett	Yankees	AL	SP	4	4	25.3	107	28	10	9	1	8	16	3.55	3.20	3.75	3.1	5.7	4.2	0.6
Mariano Rivera	Yankees	AL	RP	8	0	7.0	24	3	0	0	0	1	6	0.00	0.00	2.34	3.3	4.0	2.2	0.4
Joba Chamberlain	Yankees	AL	RP	10	0	9.7	41	10	4	4	1	3	10	3.72	3.72	3.41	0.6	1.5	1.9	0.1
Sergio Mitre	Yankees	AL	RP	3	0	4.3	17	2	1	1	0	2	2	2.08	2.08	3.66	1.0	1.4	0.7	0.1
Boone Logan	Yankees	AL	RP	3	0	2.3	12	3	1	1	0	2	2	3.86	3.86	4.06	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.0
Damaso Marte	Yankees	AL	RP	8	0	4.3	21	4	3	3	1	3	3	6.23	6.23	7.58	-1.0	-0.6	-1.1	-0.1
Alfredo Aceves	Yankees	AL	RP	5	0	7.7	36	7	5	4	1	3	1	5.87	4.70	6.20	-1.4	-0.7	-0.8	-0.1
Chan Ho Park	Yankees	AL	RP	3	0	5.7	23	6	4	3	2	0	3	6.35	4.76	6.73	-1.3	-0.8	-1.0	-0.1
David Robertson	Yankees	AL	RP	7	0	5.0	26	10	6	6	1	1	8	10.80	10.80	3.80	-3.6	-3.2	0.8	-0.3
Javier Vazquez	Yankees	AL	SP	4	4	20.0	93	25	20	20	5	11	18	9.00	9.00	6.45	-9.7	-7.6	-2.7	-0.8

TBF: Total batters faced
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above an average pitcher of the same role over the same # of innings, using RA.
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher (1.2 times average RA) of the same role over the same # of innings
FRSAR: RSAR if we use FIP instead of actual RA
WAR: Wins above replacement (RSAR divided by 10)

Battlecat just keeps on keeping on.

Here’s the whole team sorted by WAR.

Rank	Player	WAR
1	Andy Pettitte	1.3
2	Robinson Cano	0.9
3	CC Sabathia	0.8
4	Jorge Posada	0.8
5	Phil Hughes	0.7
6	A.J. Burnett	0.6
7	Alex Rodriguez	0.5
8	Nick Swisher	0.5
9	Curtis Granderson	0.5
10	Mariano Rivera	0.4
11	Brett Gardner	0.4
12	Francisco Cervelli	0.3
13	Marcus Thames	0.2
14	Derek Jeter	0.2
15	Joba Chamberlain	0.1
16	Sergio Mitre	0.1
17	Boone Logan	0.0
18	Player	0.0
19	Ramiro Pena	0.0
20	Damaso Marte	-0.1
21	Alfredo Aceves	-0.1
22	Chan Ho Park	-0.1
23	Nick Johnson	-0.1
24	Mark Teixeira	-0.2
25	Randy Winn	-0.3
26	David Robertson	-0.3
27	Javier Vazquez	-0.8

You know what’d be cool? If Mark Teixeira and Nick Johnson stopped hitting like Randy Winn.

--Posted at 6:42 am by SG / 32 Comments | - (0)

Friday, April 23, 2010

What Should We Expect Out of The Rest of This West Coast Trip(Los Angeles of Anaheim Edition)?

After winning the first two of a three game set with Oakland and with their best pitcher going in the last game, the Yankees had a chance to sweep and pick up another game on their expectations but unfortunately, it didn’t work out. However, by taking those two of three they were able to maintain the pace that has them currently looking like they’ll win about 100 games this season. Now it’s on to Orange County, California to take on the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

The pitching matchups for that series are:

Friday, April 23
A.J. Burnett vs. Ervin Santana

Saturday, April 24
Andy Pettitte vs. Joel Pineiro

Sunday, April 23
Javier Vazquez vs. Scott Kazmir

After starting the season 2-6, California won six of their next seven games, sweeping the one-time juggernaut Blue Jays and then taking the first two games of a four game series with Detroit to get to 8-7. A blown save by Brian Fuentes in his triumphant return from the DL and then a loss to Justin Verlander in their last two games now has them at an overall record of 8-9. They’ve scored 67 runs and allowed 83 so far, which gives them a Pythagorean record of 7-10. They’re currently two games out of first place in the AL West.

team	lg	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	GDP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAR
Yankees	AL	551	127	25	6	17	79	73	75	93	7	10	16	5	.272	.379	.460	.369	83.0	35.8
Twins	AL	587	135	24	3	16	80	76	76	84	3	18	8	1	.270	.365	.426	.349	80.1	29.8
Royals	AL	574	157	25	1	17	71	66	37	86	3	15	17	4	.296	.343	.443	.343	77.8	28.6
Tigers	AL	596	142	34	3	10	67	59	68	101	8	15	5	4	.274	.366	.408	.347	77.6	26.6
Red Sox	AL	588	133	37	1	20	65	63	51	109	5	14	5	3	.252	.321	.440	.330	74.8	24.4
Blue Jays	AL	604	121	43	1	23	72	69	55	135	5	8	12	1	.225	.300	.438	.317	75.6	23.9
Rays	AL	574	129	31	4	17	83	82	54	122	2	10	18	6	.251	.322	.427	.326	72.2	23.1
Angels	AL	589	135	32	0	15	63	61	45	108	4	13	12	4	.251	.312	.395	.311	66.7	16.2
Rangers	AL	517	109	20	4	11	59	54	44	104	6	9	18	1	.237	.308	.370	.300	56.2	12.0
Athletics	AL	593	128	29	1	9	66	64	53	110	6	13	11	2	.243	.315	.354	.300	61.4	10.7
White Sox	AL	551	106	18	2	18	57	51	53	83	8	18	14	6	.217	.303	.373	.300	57.2	10.1
Mariners	AL	581	128	26	2	6	60	57	57	105	4	10	13	6	.250	.325	.343	.302	58.9	9.2
Orioles	AL	590	122	27	3	13	46	44	39	105	7	16	3	3	.225	.285	.358	.284	54.0	3.5
Indians	AL	510	97	20	2	10	46	43	49	105	7	14	7	3	.215	.300	.334	.287	47.0	3.3

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAA: BR above average (not position-adjusted)
BRAR: BR above replacement level (sum of the individual players’ position-adjusted BR above replacement level )

Last year, the Angels hit .285/.350/.441 as a team en route to scoring 883 runs, the second most runs in the league behind the WORLD CHAMPION Yankees. This year as a team so far they’ve hit a less impressive .252/.316/ .396. Their team wOBA of .311 is 8th in the league.

Since they lost key players Chone Figgins and John Lackey, the aggregate projections on Anaheim were not too good, generally seeing them no better than most of the other teams in the AL West with a 78-84 record on average. So far, they haven’t shown much to dispel those projections.

Here’s how their current primary lineup compares to the Yankees as far as their offensive projections.

Player	Pos	PA	Outs	BR	OBP	Player	Pos	PA	Outs	BR	OBP
Derek Jeter	SS	5	3.1	0.69	.372	Erick Aybar	SS	5	3.4	0.57	.329
Nick Johnson	1B	5	3.0	0.72	.405	Bobby Abreu	RF	5	3.2	0.69	.368
Mark Teixeira	DH	5	3.1	0.84	.381	Torii Hunter	CF	5	3.3	0.71	.340
Alex Rodriguez	3B	5	3.1	0.87	.387	Hideki Matsui	DH	5	3.2	0.69	.356
Robinson Cano	2B	5	3.3	0.70	.338	Kendry Morales	1B	5	3.2	0.70	.338
Jorge Posada	C	5	3.2	0.70	.355	Juan Rivera	LF	4	2.7	0.51	.317
Curtis Granderson	CF	5	3.0	0.66	.341	Howie Kendrick	2B	4	2.7	0.52	.336
Nick Swisher	RF	4	2.6	0.56	.360	Mike Napoli	C	4	2.6	0.60	.355
Brett Gardner	LF	4	2.6	0.47	.341	Brandon Wood	3B	4	2.8	0.46	.297
Total		43	27.0	6.22	.365	Total		41	27.0	5.45	.338

PA: # of PA in a single game
Outs: Outs made at the plate, equals PA times (1 minus OBP)
BR: Linear weights batting runs for listed PA
OBP:projected OBP

And here’s how they compare defensively, again using projections.

Pos	Player	RS	RS/150	Player	RS	RS/150
C	Jorge Posada	-0.03	-5	Mike Napoli	-0.03	-5
1B	Nick Johnson	0.00	0	Kendry Morales	0.03	5
2B	Robinson Cano	0.00	-1	Howie Kendrick	0.03	5
3B	Alex Rodriguez	-0.03	-5	Brandon Wood	0.02	2
SS	Derek Jeter	-0.03	-4	Erick Aybar	0.04	5
LF	Brett Gardner	0.02	3	Juan Rivera	0.05	8
CF	Curtis Granderson	0.04	5	Torii Hunter	-0.01	-2
RF	Nick Swisher	0.00	0	Bobby Abreu	-0.08	-11
Total		-0.03	-5		0.05	7

RS: Projected runs saved compared to average defensively per game, using an average of projected zone rating and UZR
RS/150: RS pro-rated to 150 games

OVerall they project to have good defenders at most positions, although overall this season they’ve been about two runs below average in both zone rating and UZR>

Califas’s bigger problem has been the pitching staff.

Rnk	team	lg	Role	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	HBP	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR
4	Yankees	AL	SP	11	11	66.0	57	27	26	4	26	0	3	56	3.68	3.55	3.61	13.1
12	Angels	AL	SP	12	12	71.7	70	43	39	16	21	0	1	54	5.40	4.90	5.52	0.5
9	Yankees	AL	RP	28	0	29.0	30	15	14	4	8	0	1	23	4.66	4.34	4.34	1.7
13	Angels	AL	RP	33	0	34.3	36	25	22	4	24	0	1	27	6.55	5.77	5.33	-5.3
7	Yankees	AL	Total	39	11	95.0	87	42	40	8	34	0	4	79	3.98	3.79	3.83	14.7
13	Angels	AL	Total	45	12	106.0	106	68	61	20	45	0	2	81	5.77	5.18	5.45	-4.8

FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement. For starters this is calculated as 1.2 times league average starter RA minus starter RA divided by nine times IP. For relievers it’s calculated as 1.2 times league average reliever RA minus reliever RA divided by nine times IP
Rnk: AL rank in RSAR

They’ve had problems in both their rotation and their bullpen.

So what should we expect in this series given the matchups? Using the same methodology used in this post, here are the inputs.

Yankees
Offense: 6.22 runs
Defense: -0.01 runs
Game 1 pitching: 4.3 runs
Game 2 pitching: 4.5 runs
~~Game 3 pitching: 3.9 runs~~
Game 3 pitching: 9.5 runs

Los Angeles Angels
Offense: 5.45 runs
Defense: +0.05 runs
Game 1 pitching: 4.8 runs
Game 2 pitching: 4.7 runs
Game 3 pitching: 4.6 runs

Yankee Win Probabilities
Game 1: 58.1%
Game 2: 55.7%
~~Game 3: 60.3%~~
Game 3: -100.0%

So adding it up, the Yankees should be expected to go ~~1.7-1.3~~ 0.1-2.9.

So expect a sweep by the Angels.

--Posted at 2:50 pm by SG / 17 Comments | - (0)

Monday, April 19, 2010

What Should We Expect Out of The Upcoming West Coast Trip(Oakland Edition)?

With a strong 9-3 start that has them tied for first place in the loss column in the AL East and already six games ahead of the Red Sox in that same loss column, the Yankees head west for six games. The first three games are against Oakland, where the pitching matchups are:

Tuesday April 20
Javier Vazquez vs. Gio Gonzalez

Wednesday April 21
Phil Hughes vs. Ben Sheets

Thursday April 22
CC Sabathia vs. Dallas Braden

Oakland’s been a bit of a surprise this year as they are in first place in the AL West with a 9-5 record. They’ve scored 62 runs and allowed 47 runs, which translates to a Pythagenpat record of… 9-5.

As a team, Oakland’s offense isn’t particularly good whether you look at their projections or how they’ve done so far in 2010.

Rank	team	lg	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	GDP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAA
1	Yankees	AL	472	114	24	4	16	69	63	61	76	7	10	15	4	.284	.386	.483	.379	75.2	18.2
2	Royals	AL	467	133	22	1	15	63	58	31	64	3	11	17	1	.309	.358	.470	.359	70.3	13.8
3	Twins	AL	518	123	23	2	15	69	67	65	74	2	14	8	1	.277	.367	.439	.354	73.0	10.4
4	Tigers	AL	483	114	30	2	8	58	50	60	74	7	13	2	3	.275	.375	.414	.354	64.8	6.5
5	Blue Jays	AL	494	98	35	1	18	57	55	46	109	4	5	9	1	.223	.300	.431	.315	60.7	0.9
6	Red Sox	AL	462	106	31	1	14	48	46	37	86	4	12	5	3	.255	.318	.435	.326	57.7	1.8
7	Rays	AL	458	101	23	3	14	62	61	41	97	2	8	17	4	.245	.314	.416	.319	56.1	0.7
8	Angels	AL	489	117	26	0	14	52	51	37	91	2	9	9	4	.262	.319	.414	.320	58.2	-0.9
9	Athletics	AL	523	117	28	1	7	62	60	46	89	5	11	11	2	.252	.321	.362	.305	56.5	-6.7
10	White Sox	AL	484	95	17	1	16	53	48	46	67	8	17	13	5	.222	.308	.379	.305	52.0	-6.5
11	Orioles	AL	488	104	23	3	12	42	40	36	87	6	13	3	3	.234	.299	.381	.299	49.8	-9.2
12	Rangers	AL	427	93	16	3	10	46	42	30	89	5	8	6	1	.241	.300	.376	.297	43.9	-7.7
13	Indians	AL	444	85	17	2	9	45	42	47	89	7	13	7	3	.219	.313	.343	.297	43.8	-9.9
14	Mariners	AL	473	102	18	2	5	45	42	47	93	3	7	11	6	.245	.321	.333	.297	45.7	-11.5

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAA: BR above average (not position-adjusted)

As a team, they’ve collectively hit .252/.321/.362, although it should be noted that their home park suppresses offense a fair amount (by about 4% on average over the last four seasons). It’s also probably at least worth mentioning that their 62 runs scored is a little higher than their context-neutral batting runs which could indicate some good fortune offensively so far. For comparison’s sake, the Yankees have actually scored six fewer runs than they should have if you go by their context-neutral batting runs

You can see the difference more starkly if you line up their primary starting nine next to the Yankee lineup and compare their projections for 2010.

Player	Pos	PA	Outs	BR	OBP	Player	Pos	PA	Outs	BR	OBP
Derek Jeter	SS	5	3.1	0.69	.372	Rajai Davis	CF	5	3.3	0.61	.335
Nick Johnson	DH	5	3.0	0.72	.405	Daric Barton	1B	5	3.2	0.64	.356
Mark Teixeira	1B	5	3.1	0.84	.381	Ryan Sweeney	RF	5	3.3	0.60	.345
Alex Rodriguez	3B	5	3.1	0.87	.387	Kevin Kouzmanoff	3B	5	3.4	0.62	.312
Robinson Cano	2B	5	3.3	0.70	.338	Kurt Suzuki	C	4	2.9	0.51	.333
Jorge Posada	C	5	3.2	0.70	.355	Eric Chavez	DH	4	2.8	0.44	.306
Curtis Granderson	CF	5	3.0	0.66	.341	Mark Ellis	2B	4	2.7	0.45	.316
Nick Swisher	RF	4	2.6	0.56	.360	Travis Buck	LF	4	2.7	0.48	.332
Brett Gardner	LF	4	2.6	0.47	.341	Cliff Pennington	SS	4	2.7	0.41	.327
Total		43	27.0	6.22	.365	Total		40	27.0	4.77	.330

PA: # of PA in a single game
Outs: Outs made at the plate, equals PA times (1 minus OBP)
BR: Linear weights batting runs for listed PA
OBP:projected OBP

These are based on an average of six projection systems (CAIRO, CHONE, Marcel, Oliver, PECOTA and ZiPS), so the built-in CAIRO bias towards the Yankees is slightly mitigated.

Of course, you don’t have to score 6.22 runs a game to be a good team in baseball if you can prevent runs well. That’s where Oakland’s biggest strength lies. So far this season, their pitching staff has been the most effective one in the American League.

Rnk	team	lg	Role	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	HBP	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR
1	Athletics	AL	Total	48	13	115.3	98	39	33	8	44	2	2	97	3.04	2.58	3.62	29.8
2	Twins	AL	Total	46	12	108.0	100	37	37	11	30	1	3	72	3.08	3.08	4.11	27.5
3	White Sox	AL	Total	45	12	110.0	96	48	44	6	51	6	3	98	3.93	3.60	3.60	17.6
4	Mariners	AL	Total	40	12	105.0	103	46	43	8	41	1	4	69	3.94	3.69	4.16	16.6
5	Rays	AL	Total	46	11	103.0	97	45	44	16	39	2	4	75	3.93	3.84	5.02	16.4
6	Rangers	AL	Total	42	11	95.0	87	41	34	11	40	1	8	77	3.88	3.22	4.60	15.7
7	Yankees	AL	Total	39	11	95.0	87	42	40	8	34	0	4	79	3.98	3.79	3.83	14.7
8	Indians	AL	Total	40	11	98.7	83	46	40	9	50	2	7	60	4.20	3.65	4.90	13.0
9	Blue Jays	AL	Total	43	12	109.3	94	55	53	15	37	2	7	87	4.53	4.36	4.60	10.3
10	Red Sox	AL	Total	45	11	100.0	100	54	45	13	42	2	3	64	4.86	4.05	4.96	5.5
11	Orioles	AL	Total	48	12	104.7	114	63	54	13	36	7	4	96	5.42	4.64	4.13	-0.6
12	Tigers	AL	Total	43	11	98.0	112	59	50	10	39	1	4	61	5.42	4.59	4.60	-0.8
13	Angels	AL	Total	45	12	106.0	106	68	61	20	45	0	2	81	5.77	5.18	5.45	-4.8
14	Royals	AL	Total	50	11	98.0	112	66	62	14	48	1	7	69	6.06	5.69	5.33	-7.6

FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement. For starters this is calculated as 1.25 times league RA minus starter RA divided by nine times IP. For relievers it’s calculated as 1.15 times league RA minus reliever RA divided by nine times IP

If you go by RA, the A’s have been the best pitching staff in the AL so far, although they obviously get a boost from their park. The bulk of that value is actually in their rotation, at least so far.

Rnk	team	lg	Role	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	HBP	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR
1	Athletics	AL	SP	13	13	78.3	68	23	20	5	27	0	2	58	2.64	2.30	3.66	24.5
4	Yankees	AL	SP	11	11	66.0	57	27	26	4	26	0	3	56	3.68	3.55	3.61	13.1
4	Athletics	AL	RP	35	0	37.0	30	16	13	3	17	2	0	39	3.89	3.16	3.52	5.3
9	Yankees	AL	RP	28	0	29.0	30	15	14	4	8	0	1	23	4.66	4.34	4.34	1.7

They’ve been better than the Yankees in both starting and relieving to this point, although strength of offenses faced is likely a contributing factor.

Lastly, Oakland also looks to have a very strong defense, here’s how the primary lineups compare defensively at each position.

Pos	Player	RS	RS/150	Player	RS	RS/150
C	Jorge Posada	-0.03	-5	Kurt Suzuki	0.05	7
1B	Mark Teixeira	0.02	3	Daric Barton	0.03	5
2B	Robinson Cano	0.00	-1	Mark Ellis	0.08	12
3B	Alex Rodriguez	-0.03	-5	Kevin Kouzmanoff	0.02	3
SS	Derek Jeter	-0.03	-4	Cliff Pennington	-0.05	-7
LF	Brett Gardner	0.02	3	Travis Buck	-0.01	-2
CF	Curtis Granderson	0.04	5	Rajai Davis	0.06	9
RF	Nick Swisher	0.00	0	Ryan Sweeney	0.11	17
Total		-0.01	-2		0.30	45

RS: Projected runs saved compared to average defensively per game, using an average of projected zone rating and UZR
RS/150: RS pro-rated to 150 games

Yeah, yeah, so what does all this nerdy crap mean?

It means if we want to figure out the win probability for each game via Bill James’s log 5 methodology, we’d use these numbers to do it.

So in Game 1, we have the following inputs:
Yankees
Offense: 6.22 runs
Defense: -0.01 runs
Pitching: 3.9 runs (using six innings of Vazquez’s projected RA, then an inning each of Damaso Marte, David Robertson and Mariano Rivera)

Pythagenpat win Percentage: .714
Home field disadvantage: -0.02
Road Pythagenpat win percentage: 0..694

Athletics
Offense: 4.77 runs
Defense: 0.30 runs
Pitching: 4.9 runs (using six innings of Gio Gonzalez’s projected RA, then an inning each of Brad Ziegler, Jerry Blevins and Andrew Bailey)

Pythagenpat Win Percentage: .519
Home field advantage: 0.02
Home Pythagenpat win percentage: 0.539

Log 5 win probability = team A win percentage minus team B win percentage + .500. So for Game 1, with these lineups we’d set the Yankee win probability at 67.5%. Of course, Vazquez’s projections don’t include the fact that he can’t pitch in Yankee pinstripes, so the actual Yankee win probability is more like -100.0%.

Using the same lineups for Games 2 and 3 with the changed pitching matchups gives us these probabilities:

Game 2: 57.4%
Game 3: 64.2%

So theoretically, if not for the Vazquez effect, the Yankees should expect to go something like 1.9 - 1.1 against Oakland. Which they can’t do, because you can’t win partial games, so let’s round that up to 2-1.

Of course, one of the great modern philosphers made the astute observation that you can’t predict baseball, so I’m going to throw these numbers into the East River and predict an Oakland sweep to kick off a 15 game losing streak for the Yankees.

--Posted at 6:52 pm by SG / 50 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Yankees.com: Yankees sweep behind vintage Pettitte

NEW YORK—No Derek Jeter? No problem.

With the shortstop on the shelf for Sunday’s finale, Ramiro Pena stepped in and delivered a two-out, two-run single in the third that gave the Yankees a lead they never relinquished in their sweep-sealing 4-2 win over the Rangers.

Pena’s knock scored Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada as part of a three-run third in which the Bombers turned a one-run deficit into a two-run edge. Andy Pettitte (2-0) made that lead stand up over eight innings, surrendering two runs on four hits. Pettitte didn’t look comfortable in the beginning of the game, but his only hiccup came in the third, when he gave up back-to-back RBI hits to Elvis Andrus and Michael Young. They were the last hits he allowed. Pettitte retired 12 Rangers in a row during one stretch and 17 of the final 19 he faced.

I really like this team.

--Posted at 3:57 pm by SG / 43 Comments | - (0)

Monday, April 12, 2010

2010 Opening Week In Review

If you trust the results of the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout, the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays are probably the three best teams in baseball. So starting the season by playing six games on the road against two of the three best teams in baseball had the potential to be pretty painful. Fortunately for us, the Yankees were up to the task, taking two of three from both of their rivals, enabling them to stay close to the Toronto juggernaut in the AL East.

Here’s a look at how the team performed statistically.

Player	Team	Lg	Pos	G	AB	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	GDP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAR
Jorge Posada	Yankees	AL	C	5	17	22	6	2	0	2	5	1	0	1	0	0	.353	.500	.824	.534	6.0	4.4
Curtis Granderson	Yankees	AL	CF	6	23	26	8	1	0	2	3	5	0	0	3	0	.348	.423	.652	.452	6.2	3.9
Robinson Cano	Yankees	AL	2B	6	25	27	9	2	0	2	1	3	0	0	0	1	.360	.370	.680	.428	5.2	2.9
Nick Swisher	Yankees	AL	RF	6	21	25	7	2	0	1	3	7	1	1	0	0	.333	.440	.571	.437	4.9	2.4
Alex Rodriguez	Yankees	AL	3B	6	27	29	7	4	1	0	2	2	0	2	0	1	.259	.310	.481	.336	3.6	1.2
Derek Jeter	Yankees	AL	SS	6	28	30	8	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	.286	.333	.321	.300	3.2	0.9
Francisco Cervelli	Yankees	AL	C	1	3	5	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.400	.667	.392	1.0	0.6
Brett Gardner	Yankees	AL	LF	5	17	19	5	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	3	0	.294	.368	.294	.313	2.5	0.6
Marcus Thames	Yankees	AL	LF	2	4	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	.250	.400	.250	.324	0.5	0.0
Ramiro Pena	Yankees	AL	3B	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0.0	0.0
Randy Winn	Yankees	AL	RF	6	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	-0.2	-0.4
Nick Johnson	Yankees	AL	DH	6	22	30	3	1	0	0	7	7	1	0	0	0	.136	.367	.182	.294	2.5	-0.9
Mark Teixeira	Yankees	AL	1B	6	24	29	3	1	0	0	5	5	0	0	0	0	.125	.276	.167	.229	1.3	-1.8
Total				62	213	249	58	15	1	7	31	34	3	5	8	2	.272	.369	.451	.360	36.7	13.9

BR: Batting runs using linear weights
BRAR: Position-adjusted BR above replacement level
At this point, Teixeira’s a sunk cost and the Yankees should probably just release him and eat his salary. How about that Posada kid though? And this Granderson fella can play a bit as well. On a slightly more serious note, the Yankees put up 36 runs in six games on the road against two of the better projected run prevention teams in the league, which bodes nicely for the offense going forward.

Player	Team	Lg	Role	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR
CC Sabathia	Yankees	AL	SP	2	2	13.0	7	5	5	0	4	9	3.46	3.46	2.74	2.9
Andy Pettitte	Yankees	AL	SP	1	1	6.0	6	1	1	0	3	4	1.50	1.50	3.87	2.7
Mariano Rivera	Yankees	AL	RP	3	0	3.0	2	0	0	0	1	2	0.00	0.00	2.87	1.7
A.J. Burnett	Yankees	AL	SP	2	2	12.0	13	6	5	1	4	6	4.50	3.75	4.53	1.3
Alfredo Aceves	Yankees	AL	RP	1	0	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	3.20	1.1
David Robertson	Yankees	AL	RP	3	0	2.0	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.00	1.20	1.1
Sergio Mitre	Yankees	AL	RP	1	0	2.3	2	1	1	0	0	1	3.86	3.86	2.34	0.3
Damaso Marte	Yankees	AL	RP	2	0	0.3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.00	0.00	12.20	0.2
Joba Chamberlain	Yankees	AL	RP	3	0	3.0	4	2	2	0	2	3	6.00	6.00	3.20	-0.3
Chan Ho Park	Yankees	AL	RP	2	0	3.7	4	3	2	1	0	2	7.36	4.91	5.65	-0.9
Javier Vazquez	Yankees	AL	SP	1	1	5.7	8	8	8	2	3	5	12.71	12.71	7.61	-4.5
Total				21	6	53	49	26	24	4	18	34	4.42	4.08	3.92	5.5

RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level.

Yay Battlecat! And if you need further proof about how foolish it was to put Joba in the rotation, look at how dominant he’s been as a reliever so far. I don’t care about sample size, he’s clearly the Joba of old again. Vindication for the JSPTE crowd!

UZR is not yet available for 2010, but here’s how the team performed this past week according to zone rating.

Player	Tm	Lg	Pos	G	GS	CH	INN	PO	A	E	DP	ZR	PM	Avg ZR	AvgPM	Diff	RS
Rodriguez, Alex	NYY	AL	3B	6	6	19	52	3	17	0	3	.947	18	.826	16	2	2
Granderson, Curtis	NYY	AL	CF	6	6	26	53	24	1	0	1	.923	24	.881	23	1	1
Teixeira, Mark	NYY	AL	1B	6	6	13	53	57	2	0	7	1.000	13	.943	12	1	1
Gardner, Brett	NYY	AL	LF	5	4	9	40	9	0	1	0	.889	8	.858	8	0	0
Pena, Ramiro	NYY	AL	3B	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	1.000	1	.826	1	0	0
Winn, Randy	NYY	AL	RF	4	0	1	6	1	0	0	0	1.000	1	.867	1	0	0
Swisher, Nick	NYY	AL	RF	6	6	6	47	6	0	0	0	.833	5	.867	5	0	0
Thames, Marcus	NYY	AL	LF	2	2	3	13	2	0	0	0	.667	2	.858	3	-1	0
Jeter, Derek	NYY	AL	SS	6	6	14	53	10	8	1	3	.643	9	.849	12	-3	-2
Cano, Robinson	NYY	AL	2B	6	6	24	53	11	20	0	5	.708	17	.831	20	-3	-2

G: Games
GS: Games Started
CH: Playable Chances
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double Plays
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
PM: Plays Made
Avg ZR: ZR by average defender at the same position and in the same league
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved

Standard caveats about limitations of fielding metrics and sample size apply as always. At this point just one missed play can have a huge impact on a player’s RS total, so don’t make too much of these numbers yet, although I’ve been very pleased with Rodriguez’s defense at third so far. His hip doesn’t seem to be an issue in terms of his lateral range to this point.

For the hell of it, here’s how zone rating has all 30 MLB teams ranked (does not include catchers).

TM	POS	Ch	PM	Diff	RS
Det	Total	106	98	7	6
Cle	Total	100	92	6	5
Fla	Total	104	91	4	3
StL	Total	103	88	3	3
Mil	Total	101	87	3	3
Atl	Total	111	95	3	2
Was	Total	107	92	3	2
SD	Total	105	89	2	1
Cin	Total	107	91	1	1
Oak	Total	113	98	1	1
Sea	Total	130	113	1	1
NYM	Total	117	98	0	0
Tor	Total	99	85	0	0
ChC	Total	98	82	0	0
Bos	Total	121	104	0	0
KC	Total	114	98	0	0
Min	Total	124	106	0	0
LAA	Total	132	113	0	0
Col	Total	105	85	-1	-1
NYY	Total	116	98	-2	-1
LA	Total	95	76	-2	-1
Bal	Total	96	81	-2	-2
Phi	Total	106	86	-2	-2
Ari	Total	110	89	-2	-2
SF	Total	114	92	-2	-2
TB	Total	115	96	-3	-3
Hou	Total	120	97	-4	-3
CWS	Total	107	88	-4	-3
Tex	Total	91	74	-4	-3
Pit	Total	118	91	-7	-5

Shouldn’t the Red Sox be around +10 by now? Peter Gammons told me they were going to be historically great defensively.

When we looked at the April expectations using log 5, we saw that the Yankees would have been estimated to go 1.4 - 1.6 versus Boston and 1.5 and 1.5 versus Tampa Bay(and yes, I know you can’t win .4 or .5 or .6 games). That means they’d have been expected to be 2.94 - 3.06 after six games. All that means is they’re a game ahead of where we’d have put them, so we’d have to consider opening week a success.

date	game	xW	xL	cxW	cxL	aW	aL	caW	caL	W+/-
4-Apr	@Boston Red Sox	0.48	0.52	0.48	0.52	0	1	0	1	-0.48
6-Apr	@Boston Red Sox	0.48	0.52	0.97	1.03	1	0	1	1	0.03
7-Apr	@Boston Red Sox	0.48	0.52	1.45	1.55	1	0	2	1	0.55
9-Apr	@Tampa Bay Rays	0.50	0.50	1.95	2.05	0	1	2	1	0.05
10-Apr	@Tampa Bay Rays	0.50	0.50	2.44	2.56	1	0	3	1	0.56
11-Apr	@Tampa Bay Rays	0.50	0.50	2.94	3.06	1	0	4	1	1.06

xW/L: Expected wins/losses using log 5
cxW/L: Cumulative expected wins/losses using log 5
aW/L: Actual wins/losses for games played
caW/L: Cumulative ctual wins/losses for games played
W+/-: caW - cxW. Negative means behind pace, positive means ahead of pace

So now it’s on to a six game home stand against the Orange County Angels and the Texas Rangers.

date	game	xW	xL	cxW	cxL
13-Apr	vs. Los Angeles Angels	0.65	0.35	3.59	3.41
14-Apr	vs. Los Angeles Angels	0.65	0.35	4.23	3.77
15-Apr	vs. Los Angeles Angels	0.65	0.35	4.88	4.12
16-Apr	vs. Texas Rangers	0.61	0.39	5.49	4.51
17-Apr	vs. Texas Rangers	0.61	0.39	6.09	4.91
18-Apr	vs. Texas Rangers	0.61	0.39	6.7	5.3
	total	3.78	2.22

Log 5 would tell you that the Yankees should go 3.78 - 2.22 on this homestand, but they’ll get swept by the Angels, which is going to make that impossible. So I guess it’s good they’ve got a game in the bank.

--Posted at 7:31 am by SG / 122 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Yankees.com: Patient Yanks eek out win at Fenway

BOSTON—Nick Johnson worked an eighth-inning walk from Hideki Okajima that forced home Jorge Posada with the eventual winning run as the Yankees defeated the Red Sox, 6-4, on Tuesday at Fenway Park.

The Yankees moved the go-ahead run across, slowly, as Posada opened the inning with a ground-rule double against the left-hander and was forced to hold on Brett Gardner’s squib-shot single. Derek Jeter reached on a two-out error by shortstop Marco Scutaro, and Johnson tossed his bat aside after a five-pitch walk that forced in the run.

It’s going to take a lot for the Yankees to get another win against a team with 7 aces. Appreciate this one while you can.

--Posted at 10:20 pm by Jonathan / 18 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Looking Ahead to 2010 - Position Player Wrapup

Unfortunately I didn’t really get to finish these up in the detail I’d like to due to time constraints, so I’ll consolidate these into a few more posts, one for the position player wrap up, one for the starting pitchers, one for the relievers and then one final one for the whole team.

The table below just shows a rough estimate of projected playing time for the starters and the guys I think will be the primary bench players, and their projected outs and batting runs in each of the projection systems I've been using for these previews.

	Player	Pos	PA	caOuts	caBR	chOuts	chBR	mOuts	mBR	oOuts	oBR	pOuts	pBR	zOuts	zBR	aOuts	aBR
1	Derek Jeter	SS	650	409	90	408	91	409	90	407	87	411	87	407	90	408	89
2	Nick Johnson	DH	450	265	66	274	63	271	63	271	61	261	68	261	69	267	65
3	Mark Teixeira	1B	650	403	109	406	111	399	112	399	112	395	112	409	103	402	110
4	Alex Rodriguez	3B	600	367	106	370	105	368	106	367	104	367	105	369	103	368	105
5	Robinson Cano	2B	625	407	92	411	92	415	85	422	82	410	89	415	86	413	88
6	Jorge Posada	C	450	292	63	293	62	287	67	284	66	292	58	298	58	291	62
7	Curtis Granderson	CF	600	397	84	395	87	394	87	399	83	388	93	399	84	395	87
8	Nick Swisher	RF	575	371	79	367	83	369	81	372	78	361	86	370	80	368	81
9	Brett Gardner	LF	450	293	54	292	56	301	54	301	47	289	57	302	50	296	53
	Starters		5050	3204	742	3216	750	3212	746	3222	719	3174	757	3229	724	3210	740
	Player	Pos	PA	caOuts	caBR	chOuts	chBR	mOuts	mBR	oOuts	oBR	pOuts	pBR	zOuts	zBR	aOuts	aBR
	Randy Winn	OF	400	272	44	273	42	267	49	269	44	263	49	266	46	268	46
	Francisco Cervelli	C	300	203	30	207	30	200	37	212	26	200	32	208	30	205	31
	Marcus Thames	OF	200	140	24	139	26	139	26	140	25	140	24	141	25	140	25
	Ramiro Pena	IF	200	140	17	139	19	132	26	146	14	138	19	140	17	139	19
	Kevin Russo	IF	200	138	19	134	23	135	21	141	15	134	23	137	20	136	20
	Bench		1300	893	134	891	140	873	158	907	124	874	147	892	139	888	140
	Player	Pos	PA	caOuts	caBR	chOuts	chBR	mOuts	mBR	oOuts	oBR	pOuts	pBR	zOuts	zBR	aOuts	aBR
	Team Total		6350	4097	877	4107	891	4085	903	4129	843	4048	904	4121	862	4098	880

caOuts/caBR: cairo projected outs and linear weights batting runs for estimated PA
chOuts/chBR: chone projected outs and linear weights batting runs for estimated PA
mOuts/mBR: marcel projected outs and linear weights batting runs for estimated PA
oOuts/oBR: oliver projected outs and linear weights batting runs for estimated PA
pOuts/pBR: pecota projected outs and linear weights batting runs for estimated PA
zOuts/zBR: zips projected outs and linear weights batting runs for estimated PA
aOuts/aBR: average projected outs and linear weights batting runs for estimated PA

Team outs should add up to 4100 so keep that in mind when looking at each individual system. The systems that show more than 4100 outs would predict a few runs less than shown and the systems that show fewer than 4100 outs would predict a few more runs than shown, but the average is fairly close. 880 runs is about 15 runs fewer than the average projection showed in the Diamond Mind projection blowout, but that looks like it's due to slight differences in the playing time of some of the players compared to these.

If the Yankees can get a few more PA out of Nick Johnson and Jorge Posada, they should be able to get up to around 900 runs.

Defensively, the Yankees should look like this roughly.

Pos	Player	Inn	RS
C	Posada	840	-5
C	Cervelli	600	1
1B	Teixeira	1200	3
1B	Johnson	240	0
2B	Cano	1300	-1
2B	Pena	140	-1
3B	Rodriguez	1200	-4
3B	Pena	240	0
SS	Jeter	1300	-4
SS	Pena	140	0
IF			-6
LF	Gardner	900	2
LF	Winn	400	2
LF	Thames	140	-1
CF	Granderson	1200	5
CF	Gardner	200	2
CF	Winn	40	0
RF	Swisher	1200	0
RF	Winn	240	2
OF			12
Total			2

RS are runs saved compared to average using an average of zone rating and UZR.

While it's likely more players than those on the original opening day roster will see time defensively, none of the players that would fall into that group have defensive projections that I'd feel comfortable using so I'm not going to include them here. The infield looks a bit below average and the outfield looks like they should be pretty decent. Overall, they could be around average as a unit, which would be nice.

I'm pretty sure this is the best group of position players in baseball on paper, so barring injury and/or worse than expected decline they should do their part to make the Yankees a mid-90s win team. Will the pitching staff be up to the task? That's a question for the next two posts.

--Posted at 8:36 pm by SG / 52 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Looking Ahead to 2010: Jorge Posada

I’m going to start my player projection pieces like I usually do, by looking at Jorge Posada.

It took an injury-plagued 2008 that saw Posada have his worst season as a Yankee for a lot of people to realize just how important he was to the Yankees. Posada’s 2008 injury was the single biggest reason the Yankees missed the postseason. Given his age and the history of catchers in their mid to late 30s, it was a very strong possibility that Posada was at the end of the line, but he came back strong in 2009. In fact, of all the players in MLB who had at least 300 PAs and played 70% of their games at catcher, the only player who out-hit Posada was the second-most valuable player in the AL, Joe Mauer.

So 2009 was pretty cool. In fact, I seem to recall the Yankees winning the World Series or something, but it's over. So what do the projection systems see for Posada in 2010? I'll be using the following projections this year:

1) Offense
- CHONE, by Sean Smith of baseballprojection.com. Sean is one of the best analysts around, and in just about every test CHONE has outperformed all other projection systems.
- Marcel, by Tangotiger of The Book fame. Although it's consider the most basic projection system, it's built on a solid foundation and it is the standard that any projection system should try to beat.
- Oliver, from The Hardball Times. Brian Cartwright has done a lot of work in building Oliver, and although it's the new kid on the block I expect it to be pretty good. While it's not completely free, the Yankee projections are free.
- PECOTA, from Baseball Prospectus. Although it had a bad season last year and so far this season seems to be fraught with problems, it's been a very good projection system prior to 2009, although their claims about deadly accuracy are stupid. The one caveat here is I no longer have a subscription to Baseball Prospectus, so the projections I have are from their February 25 update, so if they've changed since then I won't know.
- ZiPS, from Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory. Dan puts a lot of work into these, and if CHONE's not the best projection system, then ZiPS probably is. I won't hold the fact that Dan's been using ZiPS for some stuff at ESPN against him.
- CAIRO, which is my own projection system, which was created for the sole purpose of making the Yankees look better than they really are.

As far as the position and replacement level adjustment. As I mentioned in the last CAIRO update, I'm going to use the methodology that is used by Fangraphs and Tangotiger. What that means is:

a) Calculate a player's runs above average, without considering position. b) Add the runs above a replacement level hitter, again ignoring position, which is 22.5 for 700 PAs. So it'll be player PAs divided by 700 times 22.5, which gets added to the player's runs above average.
c) The following are the positional adjustments that are used for 700 PAs.

Pos: Adj
C: 12.5
1B: -12.5
2B: 2.5
3B: 2.5
SS: 7.5
LF: -7.5
CF: 2.5
RF: -7.5
DH: -17.5

So the average catcher is 12.5 runs worse than an average hitter over 700 PAs, so we add 12.5 divided by 700 PAs times the player's PAs to account for that.

2) Defense, using both standard Zone Rating and UZR. While defensive metrics are not as trusted as offensive metrics, I think they tell us something useful for the majority of players, particularly when you start looking at multiple seasons and a larger sample size. For catchers, I won't use zone based metrics, I'll use a formula that looks at SB/CS, WP/PB and errors. While there are other aspects to a catcher's defense that are important, at this point we don't have a solid methodology to look at those so I'd rather just focus on the things that we can get a decent handle on.

3) Non stolen base baserunning, which I'm projecting using Baseball Prospectus's baserunning data from 2006-2009.

4) Value, which will just be the sum of the projected offense, defense and baserunning.

Offense

Player	Jorge Posada
Position	C
Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAR	BRAR/650
chone	433	382	51	100	23	1	16	65	47	92	4	1	0	.262	.349	.453	.351	60	28	43
marcel	438	384	54	108	25	1	16	64	48	90	3	2	1	.281	.363	.477	.364	65	33	49
oliver	554	483	69	139	31	1	17	76	62	108	3	1	0	.288	.368	.462	.362	81	40	47
pecota	236	209	23	56	11	0	7	29	26	47	1	0	0	.268	.352	.421	.342	31	13	37
zips	304	270	33	69	15	1	10	46	32	68	2	1	0	.256	.339	.430	.338	39	17	37
cairo	426	369	54	98	24	1	15	68	47	80	4	1	0	.266	.352	.455	.351	60	28	43
average	398	350	46	95	21	1	13	58	44	81	3	1	1	.270	.354	.450	.352	55	26	42
2009	438	383	55	109	28	0	19	81	46	101	2	1	0	.285	.358	.510	.370	69	37	54

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs, not position-adjusted
BRAR: Batting runs above replacement level (position-adjusted)
BRAR/650: BRAR pro-rated to 650 PA

There's a pretty wide range of projections in here, with Marcel and Oliver the most optimistic and PECOTA/ZiPS the most pessimistic. Posada's an outlier, and the systems that regress him towards other 35+ year old catchers are going to penalize him more. On the average though, he still looks like an asset with the bat, which he's going to have to be, because the defense and baserunning aren't so hot.

It's important to understand when looking at a projection that it's a baseline, it's not a prediction of what's going to happen. Even if the projection was deadly accurate in terms of gauging a player's true talent level at the current snapshot in time, a player's performance can fluctuate around that talent level in ways we just can't predict. You can think of a player's stat line in terms of a normal distribution. For example, if Posada hits his projected playing time and the average projection is accurate, we'd expect him to hit more than 13 HRs a little less than half the time, and fewer than 13 half the time. To better illustrate that, here's how Posada's CAIRO forecast looks in terms of percentiles, which is just a fancy way of showing the aforementioned normal distribution, with a bit of an adjustment for playing time (the better a player plays, the more he's likely to play).

Cairo %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAR	BRAR/650
80%	468	406	68	119	31	2	21	83	60	78	7	2	0	.293	.396	.531	.401	82	47	66
65%	447	387	61	108	27	1	18	75	53	79	5	2	0	.280	.374	.493	.376	70	38	55
Baseline	426	369	54	98	24	1	15	68	47	80	4	1	0	.266	.352	.455	.351	60	28	43
35%	404	350	48	89	20	0	12	60	42	80	3	1	0	.253	.330	.417	.326	50	20	32
20%	383	332	42	79	17	0	10	53	37	80	2	0	0	.239	.307	.379	.300	40	12	21

I think Posada will be somewhere between the baseline and the 65% forecast as long as he's reasonably healthy.

Defense

Year	Age	Inn	TE	FE	WP+PB	SB	CS	CS%	SBR	WP+PBR	TE/FE R	RS
2006	35	1050	8	1	50	64	34	34.7%	6.8	-1.8	-1.2	4
2007	36	1111	2	3	65	102	28	21.5%	-7.1	-5.6	1.3	-11
2008	37	234	1	0	14	34	3	8.1%	-6.7	-1.3	0.2	-8
2009	38	785	5	2	49	80	23	22.3%	-0.4	-3.7	-0.6	-5
2010 Projection	39	734	4	2	43	70	20	21.9%	-3	-3	0	-6

Inn: Defensive innings at catcher
TE: Throwing errors
FE: Fielding errors
WP+PB: Wild pitches plus passed balls allowed
SB: Stolen bases allowed
CS: Runners caught stealing
CS%: Percentage of runners caught stealing (league average was around 23% in 2009)
SBR: Runs allowed compared to average due to stolen bases
WP+PB R: Runs allowed compared to average due to WP/PB
TE/FE R: Runs allowed compared to average due to throwing/fielding errors
RS: Total runs allowed compared to average (SBR + WP+PB R + TE/FE R)

Posada's throwing really wasn't a problem last season, as his 22.3% rate of throwing out basestealers was just a smidgen below the MLB average of 23.0%. His biggest problem was the passed balls, which has generally been a problem every year. He's not a good defender at this point, but he should still hit enough to compensate for that.

Baserunning
Having a catcher that gets on base as often as frequently as Posada is great. Having a catcher that runs the bases like Posada on base that frequently? Not so great. Posada led the league in SB% in 2009, but in non-SB baserunning he continued to show that he's one of the worst baserunners in baseball.

Year	GA_OPPS	EQGAR	AA_OPPS	EQAAR	HA_OPPS	EQHAR	OA_OPPS	EQOAR	OPPS	EQBRR
2006	20	-0.8	3	0.3	42	-0.4	46	-4.2	111	-5.1
2007	34	-1.3	3	-0.1	52	-0.8	57	-4.0	146	-6.2
2008	10	0.0	0	0.0	10	0.1	14	-1.0	34	-0.9
2009	20	-0.4	1	0.2	29	-1.4	34	-5.9	84	-7.5
Proj	19	-0.5	1	0.1	28	-0.8	32	-4.1	81	-5.2

GA_OPPS: Ground advancement opportunities
EQGAR: GA_OPPS runs above/below average
AA_OPPS: Air advancement opportunities. Opportunities to advance in sacrifice fly situations.
EQAAR: AA_OPPS runs above/below average
HA_OPPS: Hit advancement opportunities. Stuff like first to third on a single, etc.,
EQHAR: HA_OPPS runs above/below average
OA_OPPS: Other advancement opportunities such as wild pitches, passed balls, etc.,
EQOAR: OA_OPPS runs above/below average
OPPS: GA_OPPS + AA_OPPS + HA_OPPS + OA_OPPS
EQBRR: EQGAR + EQAAR + EQHAR + EQOAR

Value
So, adding it all up...

Player	Jorge Posada
Position	C
Offense	26
Defense	-6
Baserunning	-5
RAR	15
WAR	1.5
Value
$3,000,000	$4,412,717
$3,500,000	$5,148,170
$4,000,000	$5,883,623
$4,500,000	$6,619,076
$5,000,000	$7,354,529
$5,500,000	$8,089,982
Salary	$13,100,000

Offense is just the average BRAR from the first set of projections, and RAR is runs above replacement (offense + defense + baserunning). WAR is wins above replacement, wich is RAR divided by ten, and then the value dollars after that show Posada's projected 1.5 WAR would be worth based on some different values of a marginal win. So if a marginal win is worth $3.5M, Posada's worth around $5M.

Now, we should have a reasonable amount of confidence in the offensive projection. With the defense and baserunning it's a little more nebulous. Still, I don't think it's a stretch to say that Posada gives back a decent amount of his offensive value in the other aspects of the game. He still looks like he should be an asset in 2010, even if he's overpaid.

There's barely two weeks until Opening Day, so I'm going to try and churn through these quickly. The site's still a work in progress and we may have some growing pains so please be patient with any of those as well.

--Posted at 1:46 am by SG / 46 Comments | - (0)

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