Friday, April 27, 2012
Yankees.com: Yanks use passed ball to walk off vs. Tigers
NEW YORK—Derek Jeter raced home to score the winning run on a passed ball in the bottom of the ninth inning as the Yankees defeated the Tigers, 7-6, on Friday at Yankee Stadium.
Brayan Villarreal recorded the first out of the ninth inning, but Jeter walked and moved to third base on a wild pitch as Curtis Granderson walked.
The last pitch skipped away from catcher Alex Avila and rolled to the backstop as Alex Rodriguez waved home Jeter, who slid home and called himself safe as Villarreal couldn’t catch the throw to the plate.
The play of the game, of course, was this defensive gem. The hat flying off as he slides/falls-flat-on-his-face is what makes it for me.
Hurry back, Brett.
NYDN: Cashman avoids bad press, fan outrage over Montero trade for injured Pineda
When it came to legit Cashman pitching blunders, whether it be A.J. Burnett, Kei Igawa, Carl Pavano or Jeff Weaver, the GM didn’t exactly skate, but his relationship with certain reporters, and the respect many others have for him, softened what could have been severe body blows.
Only now it will be fascinating to watch how Cashman’s relationship with the media evolves going forward. By normal Yankees standards, the pitching is in shambles, filled with inconsistent arms after CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova take their turns in the rotation.
I’m bringing back the complaint thread. If you don’t like them, don’t read this.
The impact of the Pineda injury is huge. If the Yankees were looking at Pineda as a 3-4 win player, it probably would have helped them move towards the $189 payroll in 2014 that they’ve been eyeing. Not having him for 2012, and possibly never having him, should possibly change the organization’s plans. I don’t know if it will, but let’s think about it logically.
- Say the Yankees were a 95 win team with Pineda, and that losing him makes them a 93 win team (assuming they get better than replacement level pitching from his replacement(s))
- In 2013, with just about every key player on the team likely to be worse since they’re past the age of the typical player’s peak, what would they be then? An 88 win team?
-Now subtract Mo, Hiroki Kuroda, Nick Swisher and Russell Martin from that. Say that’s 10 wins. So now what, 78 wins?
-They have $120M committed to 2013, without including arbitration salaries for Brett Gardner, Phil Hughes, Boone Logan, Joba Chamberlain and David Robertson. Giving them a 20% raise bumps the payroll commitment to about $135M or so.
-Assume that 90 wins is the target to qualify for the second wild card in most seasons. So the Yankees need to add about 12 wins for $54M to get to 90 wins in 2013, and that really just puts them on the periphery of the wild card race.
You probably can’t buy 12 wins for $54M on the free agent market due to what’s available and how it fits your roster as well as with competition from other teams. The better free agents are probably not going to want to settle for one year contracts and anything longer than that impacts the 2014 payroll.
Maybe they can replace Pineda’s wins with someone from the farm, although at this point it sure doesn’t seem like Dellin Betances or Manny Banuelos are ready and the other arms behind them are either too far away or don’t project to be much more than back-end guys. They don’t have the position player prospects to replace the hole in RF, at least not for 2013. They could use a rotating DH to fill the hole there, but then that necessitates having a backup player or two that you’re comfortable playing in the field every day. I don’t know if Eduardo Nunez is that guy given his defensive issues and the uncertainty of his offense. Martin’s not making much of a case to be retained, but the falloff from him to some combination of Francisco Cervelli, Austin Romine or Chris Stewart is probably still significant.
Because of that, the only way I can see the Yankees being competitive in 2013 is going over the $189M payroll target. If they’re not going to do that, I’d suggest rebuilding, but they don’t have anyone trade-able that would help reduce their payroll. Is anyone really going to take Rodriguez or Mark Teixeira off their hands?
As of now the Yankees only have $75M commited to the 2014 payroll. However, that number only includes CC Sabathia, Rodriguez, Teixeira and a $3M Derek Jeter buyout. They’d still have arbitration rights to Gardner, Robertson, Pineda, Ivan Nova, Nunez, Cervelli, Stewart and Ramiro Pena. How many games would that team win?
I understand the benefit to getting under the salary cap limit, but if the trade-off is a crappy team that will draw fewer fans and make less revenue it may not be worth it.
Monday, April 23, 2012
Yankees.com: Jeter’s four hits help CC top Texas
ARLINGTON—The Yankees believed their trip to Texas could be a good measurement of how they would stack up against the American League’s best competition thus far, and the early results suggest they’re doing just fine.
CC Sabathia pitched eight innings in what was arguably his sharpest start of the young season, Alex Rodriguez homered and Derek Jeter banged out four hits as the Yankees defeated the Rangers, 7-4, on Monday at Rangers Ballpark.
I think Sabathia pitched much better than the four runs allowed would have you believe. Fortunately for him his offense gave him seven runs so it can be considered a gutsy performance instead of a disappointing one.
Derek Jeter’s continuing resurgence is the story of the season so far though in my mind. He now leads the AL in hits and these aren’t cheap for the most part. He’s hitting the ball hard to the outfield consistently and it’s been great to watch.
If the Yankees can take one of the next two games, this road trip will have been a resounding success.
Friday, April 20, 2012
Crashing the Party
I decided to make use of my field pass during Yankees' batting practice on Friday afternoon. I figured that I should make the most of it before somebody wised up and revoked it.
Trying to remain as incognito as possible, I snapped off a few pictures using my phone (hence the poor picture quality). Click on any of them to enlarge.
I took this shot just as the Red Sox were finishing up their BP - all the Yankees were still in the dugout getting ready to come out and stretch.
Papelbon is right, Mo has a great smile.
CHB asked asked A-Rod about his favorite Fenway moments. I believe A-Rod mentioned his first major league game in July of 1994.
One of the funnier moments I witnessed was when Nick Swisher came into the dugout before taking BP. Russell Martin was just about to sit down with a reporter from a Canadian news outlet, and Swisher started yelling out, "French time? Time for French!?"
Another interesting thing I caught was Swisher talking to Ibanez about the difference between Yankee Stadium's short porch and the wall in left at Fenway. He said something about how if you get jammed at Yankee Stadium, you won't be able to muscle it out; but you can get jammed and still go deep over the monster. Or maybe it was the other way around. The funny thing was that it almost looked like he got jammed in his first plate appearance on Friday and he actually took it the other way for a HR over the monster.
Kuroda sitting down for an interview with Japanese TV. I only caught one word: Ichiro.
Every time I get an assignment for a Yankee game, I hope to see Mariano Rivera take the mound. So when Cody Eppley came in with a four run lead in the bottom of the ninth, I was a bit disconcerted. However, it only took one single off the bat of Jarrod Saltalamacchia for Girardi to make the inevitable call to the bullpen, and I once again got to see my absolute favorite player in action. Two strike outs and a ground out was all the Red Sox could muster against the greatest closer in baseball history, and the Yankees took the first game of the season series 6-2.
Happy Birthday Fenway.
Yankees.com: After honoring Fenway, Yanks pound Sox
Honoring the oldest operating facility in the big leagues, Boston was attired in replicas of what the club would have worn on April 20, 1912, as the gates along Yawkey Way opened, just five days after the sinking of the Titanic.
The Red Sox won that opening game, 7-6, in 11 innings, but behind a 15th consecutive winning decision from right-hander Ivan Nova and the Yankees’ offensive power, New York spoiled any chances of a historic reprisal early.
Dustin Pedroia dropped a Derek Jeter popup that led to an unearned first-inning run before Swisher and Chavez teed off on Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz for solo homers in the second inning.
Chavez added a second homer in the fourth frame off Buchholz, and Rodriguez slugged the 631st of his big league career over the Green Monster in the fifth, passing former Mariners teammate Ken Griffey Jr. for sole possession of fifth place on the all-time list.
I can’t wait to watch the replay of this one.
Saturday, April 14, 2012
NY Post: Sherman: A-Rod HRs help, hurt Yankees
That $30 million seduction looked bad then — to blend immortality with a payday — and worse now for two reasons: 1) The Yankees are trying to get under the $189 million luxury-tax threshold beginning in 2014 to gain the financial benefits that are part of the new collective bargaining agreement. Those $6 million bonuses, if triggered, would count toward the payroll in the season they are earned. 2) The 2009 revelation that Rodriguez used steroids at least during his Ranger years devalued A-Rod, the TV Show, for the Yankees/YES while assuring Rodriguez that the accomplishment is as regretted as celebrated.
You got a preview of, at the least, how little joy and fanfare there will be should Rodriguez keep climbing on the homer list by the minimalist reaction yesterday. It was not long ago that becoming the fifth-leading homer hitter ever would have unleashed a standing ovation, wall-to-wall coverage and the further elevating of a reputation. Instead, when A-Rod took Ervin Santana deep to open the third inning, there was, well, not much.
The way I see it, the best way for this to work out is for A-Rod to hit all those bonuses this year and next year so they have no impact on 2014.
Rodriguez can earn the $6 million bonuses for hitting 660 HRs, 715 HRs, 755 HRs, then for tying the HR record (currently 756) and then breaking it. According to the CAIRO career projections I ran for Rodriguez his baseline career total for HRs was 699 and if he hit his 80% forecast it would get to 742.
| 2012_% | PA | AB | H | HR |
| Baseline | 13066 | 11308 | 3328 | 699 |
| 65% | 13560 | 11732 | 3469 | 724 |
| 80% | 13826 | 11962 | 3565 | 742 |
Better than expected health could probably push him closer to that 755-757 range, but I’m not sure expecting a 36-42 year old Rodriguez to start demonstrating better health than the 32-35 version did is particularly realistic.
He now needs 31 HRs over the next two years to get to 661. CAIRO’s baseline had him at 35. If he can do that, then we have to wait another 50 HRs for him to trigger that 715 HR bonus. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that it wouldn’t happen in 2014, and I’d probably bet against it happening in 2015. It may not be going out on the limb to say that it will NEVER happen.
Point being, this is probably pretty low on the Yankees’ list of worries in getting to the $189M payroll Valhalla.
The wording of the last two milestones is interesting. Rodriguez would have to average 21 HRs a year over the rest of his contract (plus yesterday’s) to wind up at 756. If Albert Pujols averages 52 over the same span, he’d end up at 757 HRs. Wouldn’t it be hilarious if Rodriguez tied Barry Bonds in the first game of an Angels series, passed him in the second and then watched Pujols hit three HRs to break his record in the third game? Technically, Rodriguez would have achieved his milestone. But it wouldn’t have been worth anything 24 hours later.
Actually, it wouldn’t be hilarious.
Friday, April 13, 2012
Yankees.com: Superb Kuroda leads Yanks in Bronx opener
NEW YORK—Hiroki Kuroda worked eight-plus stellar innings in his Yankee Stadium debut and Nick Swisher cleared the bases with a three-run double as the Yankees defeated the Angels, 5-0, on Friday in their home opener.
Alex Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson also homered in the victory for New York, as the Bombers won for the 14th time in their last 15 home openers, including three of four at the new ballpark. Rodriguez’s fourth-inning homer was the 630th of his career, tying him with Ken Griffey Jr. for fifth on the all-time list.
I only got to see bits and pieces but I look forward to watching the replay of Kuroda’s performance. Pretty much the home opener you’d draw up on paper if you could. A great starting pitcher performance, Swisher putting the team up 3-0 in the first inning., Rodriguez going 3 for 4 with a SB and showing that perhaps there’s still some life left in him, and most importantly a win.
If we revisit this, the Yankees have now gotten their record back to where it should have been after seven games. According to log5 the Yankees would have been 3.82 - 3.18 at this point, and they’re 4-3. Yay.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
2012 Yankee Position Player WAR through April 11
I’m just goofing around with my spreadsheets for 2012 and figured I’d post this. I’ve decided that this year I’m going to just use Fangraphs’ data for everything except defense since I don’t like using UZR as the sole determination of a player’s defense. I’ll still keep my own set of numbers as a sanity check in case I start having questions about what Fangraphs says, but I don’t generally have much of an issue with their position player valuations. I’ll still do my own pitching valuation.
| name | team | lg | pos | pa | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | so | gdp | sb | cs | avg | obp | slg | woba | avg_def | war |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | AL | SS | 30 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .370 | .414 | .556 | .403 | -0.2 | 2.1 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | AL | RF | 30 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .208 | .367 | .542 | .392 | -0.5 | 1.6 |
| Eduardo Nunez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .500 | .452 | -0.2 | 0.7 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | AL | LF | 19 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .353 | .389 | .353 | .346 | -0.1 | 0.5 |
| Andruw Jones | Yankees | AL | LF | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .286 | .333 | .714 | .409 | -0.2 | 0.5 |
| Russell Martin | Yankees | AL | C | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .455 | .200 | .338 | -0.3 | 0.3 |
| Eric Chavez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .500 | .440 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Raul Ibanez | Yankees | AL | RF | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .200 | .278 | .467 | .322 | -0.1 | 0.2 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .174 | .345 | .261 | .299 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | AL | 1B | 29 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .310 | .280 | .273 | 0.1 | -0.6 |
| Chris Stewart | Yankees | AL | C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0.0 | -0.7 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | AL | CF | 29 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .310 | .440 | .315 | -1.1 | -0.8 |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | AL | 2B | 30 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .300 | .357 | .290 | -0.7 | -1.0 |
woba: Weighted on-base average
avg_def: Average of DRS, UZR and ZR
war: wins above replacement (using Fangraphs’ offensive WAR plus baserunning with avg_def)
So the Yankees should DFA Mark Teixeira, Chris Stewart, Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano apparently. A bit surprised to see Cano at the bottom of the list, although it appears to be a defense thing.
Friday, April 6, 2012
Looking Ahead To 2012 - Team Wrap Up
Opening Day is here, which means we can forget about projections and start complaining about games that count.
We’ve looked at the projections for most of the key players on the Yankees Opening Day roster, with apologies to Chris Stewart.
Russell Martin
Mark Teixeira
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Eduardo Nun-E-z
The Speedy Brett Gardner
Curtis Granderson
Nick Swisher
Andruw Jones and Jesus Montero Raul Ibanez
CC Sabathia
Hiroki Kuroda
Phil Hughes
Michael Pineda
Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia
$36M and a lost draft pick
David Robertson
Booooone Logan and Clay Rapada
Cory Wade and David Phelps
Mariano F’ing Rivera
So now I try to assemble that into a team projection. I’ll show the depth charts I used for the 2012 MLB Projection Blowout with CAIRO.
| order | player | position | pa | outs | avg/obp/slg | woba | br | def |
| 1 | Derek Jeter | SS | 575 | 392 | .286/.345/.384 | .325 | 69 | -7 |
| 2 | Curtis Granderson | CF | 625 | 421 | .263/.351/.502 | .366 | 98 | 0 |
| 3 | Mark Teixeira | 1B | 675 | 447 | .263/.359/.493 | .368 | 105 | 4 |
| 4 | Robinson Cano | 2B | 675 | 460 | .303/.352/.504 | .368 | 105 | 0 |
| 5 | Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 450 | 300 | .273/.363/.474 | .365 | 68 | 0 |
| 6 | Nick Swisher | RF | 625 | 418 | .259/.356/.455 | .354 | 90 | 4 |
| 7 | Raul Ibanez | DH | 400 | 279 | .266/.329/.458 | .340 | 55 | 0 |
| 8 | Russell Martin | C | 500 | 346 | .253/.347/.383 | .329 | 60 | 0 |
| 9 | Brett Gardner | LF | 600 | 410 | .262/.347/.371 | .324 | 76 | 16 |
| Starters | 5125 | 3473 | .271/.351/.449 | .350 | 726 | 18 | ||
| bench | player | position | pa | outs | avg/obp/slg | woba | br | def |
| Eduardo Nunez | IF | 375 | 271 | .262/.315/.392 | .310 | 44 | -6 | |
| Andruw Jones | OF | 275 | 194 | .221/.318/.413 | .321 | 34 | 0 | |
| Eric Chavez | 3B | 250 | 182 | .240/.296/.356 | .288 | 24 | 0 | |
| Chris Stewart | C | 100 | 72 | .228/.299/.328 | .283 | 9 | 0 | |
| Francisco Cervelli | C | 100 | 70 | .264/.328/.373 | .312 | 11 | 0 | |
| Ramiro Pena | IF | 50 | 37 | .240/.290/.340 | .280 | 5 | 0 | |
| Brandon Laird | 1B/3B | 40 | 29 | .247/.292/.407 | .304 | 4 | 0 | |
| Chris Dickerson | OF | 0 | 0 | .243/.321/.369 | .308 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jack Cust | DH | 0 | 0 | .243/.362/.420 | .349 | 0 | 0 | |
| Russell Branyan | DH | 0 | 0 | .240/.330/.458 | .341 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dewayne Wise | OF | 0 | 0 | .243/.286/.406 | .298 | 0 | 0 | |
| David Adams | 2B | 0 | 0 | .244/.311/.377 | .305 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bench | 1190 | 855 | .244/.309/.381 | .304 | 131 | -6 | ||
| Team | 6315 | 4328 | .266/.343/.436 | .341 | 857 | 12 |
woba: Weighted on-base average
br: Linear weights batting runs
def: Estimated runs saved compared to average using an average of zone rating, DRS, UZR and Totalzone
The biggest area of concern for the position players is probably Alex Rodriguez’s health. A weighted average of his past four years puts him at 459 PA. I’m also not particularly optimistic that Raul Ibanez can hit that projected line, although as half of a platoon it’s more feasible. To a lesser extent the team’s overall health is probably a concern, although in my mind it’s not a huge one. Losing Curtis Granderson or Robinson Cano for an extensive period of time wouldn’t be good since they’re probably the two most valuable position players on the team right now, but you can say that for any team losing one or both of their top two position players.
Regarding Chris Stewart vs. Francisco Cervelli, it’s a clear offensive downgrade. The question is how defense changes things. If we use Cervelli’s 2011 playing time as an estimate for the 2012 backup catchers, you’re looking at something like 137 PA. Let’s round that up to 200 PA in case Russell Martin misses some more time than expected.
200 PA of Cervelli projects to be worth 22 runs. For Stewart, 200 PA projects to be worth about 18 runs. As far as defense, I’m going to ignore pitch framing and blocking and just compare the difference between them in SB/CS. In their careers, that looks like this:
| player | inn | sb | cs | sba | cs% |
| Cervelli | 1295 | 93 | 23 | 116 | 19.8% |
| Stewart | 590 | 44 | 28 | 72 | 38.9% |
Runners may not run as frequently against Stewart if teams have more respect for his arm than they do for Cervelli’s, although runners have attempted 0.12 steals per inning vs. Stewart compared to 0.09 steals per innings vs. Cervelli in their respective careers. I’ll split the difference, which means 42 stolen base attempts over 400 innings. Using the linear weights values for SB/CS gives us this.
| player | inn | sb | cs | sba | cs% | rv |
| Cervelli | 400 | 34 | 8 | 42 | 19.8% | 4 |
| Stewart | 400 | 26 | 16 | 42 | 38.9% | -1 |
rv: linear weights run value of SB/CS.
A positive run value means more runs for the team stealing bases, so the difference between Stewart and Cervelli there effectively nullifies Cervelli’s offensive edge. Whether other factors of catcher defense change things beyond that, I have no idea.
Back to the rest of the team, the Yankees actually project to score more runs than any other team in baseball according to the aggregate projections I ran, although CAIRO sees them about nine runs behind Boston. They may be able to pick up a few more runs if they swap out Ibanez for Russell Branyan and/or Jack Cust at some point.
Most of the defense projects as average, aside from Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher, Brett Gardner and Nun-E. Overall they project about 12 runs better than average.
Of course, 90% of the game is pitching, so how’s that look?
| Role | Player | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP |
| SP1 | CC Sabathia | 220 | 220 | 91 | 82 | 19 | 64 | 203 | 3.57 | 3.24 | 3.23 |
| SP2 | Hiroki Kuroda | 190 | 190 | 91 | 80 | 21 | 44 | 126 | 4.57 | 4.01 | 3.92 |
| SP3 | Michael Pineda | 150 | 150 | 82 | 76 | 21 | 53 | 157 | 4.37 | 4.06 | 3.79 |
| SP4 | Ivan Nova | 150 | 150 | 78 | 72 | 16 | 57 | 89 | 4.93 | 4.50 | 4.52 |
| SP5 | Phil Hughes | 150 | 150 | 75 | 73 | 19 | 50 | 114 | 4.63 | 4.49 | 4.26 |
| SP6 | Andy Pettitte | 110 | 110 | 51 | 47 | 11 | 35 | 76 | 4.33 | 4.01 | 4.00 |
| SP7 | Freddy Garcia | 40 | 40 | 18 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 4.55 | 4.28 | 4.28 |
| SP8 | Manny Banuelos | 20 | 20 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 6.20 | 5.72 | 5.43 |
| SP9 | Dellin Betances | 20 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 6.51 | 6.02 | 5.75 |
| SP10 | Adam Warren | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.41 | 5.00 | 4.72 |
| Starters | Total | 1050 | 1050 | 510 | 469 | 117 | 335 | 813 | 4.38 | 4.02 | 3.98 |
| Role | Player | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP |
| CL | Mariano Rivera | 65 | 65 | 25 | 23 | 5 | 16 | 77 | 2.63 | 2.46 | 2.71 |
| SU | David Robertson | 70 | 70 | 28 | 26 | 5 | 43 | 109 | 2.96 | 2.77 | 2.84 |
| SU | Rafael Soriano | 60 | 60 | 31 | 29 | 8 | 26 | 69 | 3.82 | 3.60 | 3.64 |
| MR | Boone Logan | 50 | 50 | 23 | 20 | 5 | 19 | 46 | 4.29 | 3.76 | 3.71 |
| MR | Cory Wade | 40 | 40 | 20 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 28 | 4.44 | 4.08 | 4.31 |
| MR | Clay Rapada | 50 | 50 | 26 | 24 | 5 | 23 | 39 | 4.63 | 4.35 | 4.25 |
| LR | David Phelps | 50 | 50 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 14 | 24 | 5.58 | 5.16 | 4.88 |
| LR | D.J. Mitchell | 23 | 23 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 5.99 | 5.54 | 5.26 |
| Relievers | Total | 408 | 408 | 191 | 177 | 43 | 161 | 403 | 4.21 | 3.90 | 3.75 |
| Team | Total | 1458 | 1458 | 701 | 646 | 160 | 496 | 1216 | 4.33 | 3.99 | 3.91 |
Assigning innings to the staff was a bit trickier this year. The Yankees have a whole bunch of guys who could pitch in the middle/back of the rotation and injuries/circumstances may have a greater say in that than merit. There’s not a ton of difference in the projections of starters 2-7, although it’s probably fair to wonder how accurate projecting Andy Pettitte will be after a year off. But really, you can juggle the innings around between Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes and Freddy Garcia and probably not see a big difference. CC Sabathia is really the one starter the Yankees can’t afford to lose for any appreciable amount of time.
As far as the pen, it looked better before Joba Chamberlain got hurt. There’s still probably not an end-game you’d take over Mariano Rivera/David Robertson, and for all the crap I spew about the Soriano signing he should be solid, but an injury to either Mo or Robertson suddenly makes it look a bit thin. David Aardsma may be able to pitch at some point, but that’s uncertain.
So, adding this up, this is what CAIRO says.
| RS | 848 |
| Def | 12 |
| RA | 701 |
| wpct | .598 |
| p162 | 97 |
848 runs scored and 701 runs allowed plus 12 runs saved compared to average puts the Yankees at a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .598, which is equivalent to a 97 win team. CAIRO projected them at 96 in the projection blowout, which is probably a strength of schedule thing.
The other projections I ran say:
Marcel: 92
Oliver: 94
PECOTA: 95
ZiPS: 95
Average: 94
Clay Davenport has them at 93, the official version of Oliver has them at 96 and the official version of PECOTA has them at 94 wins.
I am fairly certain about one thing in baseball this year. The best team in the American League will be the best team in baseball. I’m not quite as certain that the Yankees are that team. They project to be, but Texas has represented the AL in the last two World Series (shamefully, but still…) and if Yu Darvish is a front-line MLB starting pitcher(I think he is), it’s not a stretch to see them as the best team in the league. If the Angels stop dicking around with Vernon Wells and put Mike Trout in their outfield they also have a chance to be the best team in the league, plus they’ll sweep the Yankees in the regular season even if they’re not. Detroit’s defense looks like a problem to me, and while they should score plenty of runs, I have a hard time seeing them as being better than all three of the Rangers, Angels, and Yankees. Of course, we also have the two chief rivals in the AL East to worry about. It wouldn’t take much in the way of good fortune for Boston/Tampa Bay or bad fortune for the Yankees to drop the Yanks into third place.
Still, it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Yankees fail to qualify for the postseason. I suppose losing any of CC Sabathia, Robinson Cano or Curtis Granderson for an extended period of time would be one such scenario.
According to the average team projections I ran their probability of winning at least the second wild card at 82.5%, which is the highest in baseball and 7% ahead of Texas who rank second. CAIRO likes the Yankees even more than that at 83.5%, but that ranks second to Texas’s 84.1%. On average, it took 92 wins to win the first AL wild card and 89 wins to get the second one, but these are the Yankees. Division or bust! Wild cards are for losers!
Since rilkefan asked about how these projections have fared in the past, I did a quick little chart. This compares the average of however many projections I ran that year to what the Yankees actually did.
| Year | Projected | Actual | Difference |
| 2005 | 94 | 95 | 1 |
| 2006 | 90 | 97 | 7 |
| 2007 | 95 | 94 | -1 |
| 2008 | 95 | 89 | -6 |
| 2009 | 96 | 103 | 7 |
| 2010 | 96 | 95 | -1 |
| 2011 | 92 | 97 | 5 |
| average | 94 | 95.7 | 1.7 |
| rms | 4.8 |
So the Yankees have been a bit less than two wins better than projected on average since I began running these in 2005. The methodology has changed, I think for the better, but it’s still limited. But I’m pretty comfortable the Yankees will be one of the best teams in baseball. That’s really all you can ask for as a fan when the season starts, right?
Yay Opening Day!
Monday, March 26, 2012
NYDN: Yankees’ Alex Rodriguez hit by 95-mph pitch by Detroit Tigers’ Brian Villareal
TAMPA - The Yankees got a brief jolt Sunday when Alex Rodriguez was drilled in the rib cage by a 95-mph fastball thrown by Detroit’s Brayan Villareal. A-Rod grimaced and crumpled to the ground, clutching his side.
He was up quickly and, neither he nor Joe Girardi was worried afterward.
“Everything good,” Rodriguez said. “Ready to go.”
“He’s OK, the doctor checked him out and he’s fine,” Girardi said. “I expect him back in there on Tuesday.”
Although it seems like Rodriguez is fine, this was a reminder of the biggest problem facing the Yankees this year. An injury to one of their starting eight position players would expose just how thin they are behind the starters.
In other assorted crap.
NY Times: Pineda Hits the Gas, and His Fastball’s Speed Jumps
I only watched a couple of innings from yesterday’s game and I didn’t see anything over 91. I’m still not going to worry about Pineda’s velocity until the games start to count.
NY Post: Joba leaves hospital; Yankees manager confident in comeback
If the Yankees can put together a sixth by committee until Joba’s return, they may be able to weather this blow. Seriously though, this sounds encouraging considering where things were right after the injury. I still doubt we’ll see him back this year, but I hope he’s able to make a full recovery.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
10 Years of YES: Jeter’s dive
10 Years of YES remembers “one of the greatest games you’ll ever see” on the YES Network, and Derek Jeter’ memorable dive into the stands.
It’s always fun to look back at this play, because I think that the July 1, 2004 game is one of the best regular season games I’ve ever seen. Jeter’s play was a good one, perhaps overrated a bit due to context, but I think A-Rod’s double play in the 11th was the play of the game, and of course we had Miguel Cairo’s two-out clutch double that scored Ruben Sierra from first to tie the game in the bottom of the 13th.
You also had Gary Sheffield moved to 3B for the first time in 11 years, You had Brad Halsey matching Pedro Martinez pitch for pitch, you had a rare scoreless appearance by Felix “The Run Fairy™” Heredia, and a game-winning hit from John Flaherty who was pinch-hitting for Tanyon Sturtze and was the last player on the bench. Just a fun game all around.
Sunday, March 4, 2012
Yahoo: Alex Rodriguez steps up to challenge Yankees
Rodriguez had spent early Friday morning in the batting cage, first hitting off a tee. Between swings he’d turn to David Adams, a 24-year-old minor leaguer, and explain the swing, its path, and why it should work.
Adams had met Rodriguez only once or twice before, and suddenly Rodriguez was talking hitting science with him, how the ball that gets deep can be hit with the same basic swing as the ball out in front of the plate, like Edgar Martinez used to teach a young A-Rod.
“I let him do all the talking,” Adams said. “I’m trying to get as much knowledge as I can. I’ll follow him around and see what I can learn.”
He broke into a smile.
“For any young guy,” he said, “it’s a great day.”
The most expensive hitting coach ever.
I kid. I think this is great. I thought 2009 would be the end of the bizarre hatred of Rodriguez that many Yankee fans had, but it was back by the end of the 2011 ALCS. So maybe a healthy season in 2012 that helps fuel a World Series win will finally slay the beast.
On the same subject, but a different topic.
An almost instant convert, Rodriguez invited Clark to his Miami home. The toes-to-neck assessment, which included a breakdown of Rodriguez’s swing, left Clark believing A-Rod had strength imbalances and/or a lack of flexibility in his right big toe, left ankle, right knee and right hip. It is a chicken-and-egg argument what came first, but all feed upon each other to create a domino effect of wear, tear and pain. They also helped cause, in Clark’s estimation, an impingement in Rodriguez’s left shoulder. A result of the lack of movement here and instability there was a swing that had lost some range and power.
You might want to dismiss the idea of inflexibility in a toe as being consequential. But Clark doesn’t, believing “in a ground up” evaluation. Rodriguez had a 27-degree range of motion in his right big toe, when 70 is ideal. Without that flexibility, when the toe grounds into the dirt just past the midpoint of a swing, greater stress is placed on, among other things, the knee and hips — the two areas where Rodriguez has had surgery over the past three years.
Despite the varied issues, Rodriguez had such superior hand-eye coordination, strength and athletic ability to compensate that he still could produce at a high level. But Clark believes the repetition of improper movement and the stresses they caused slowly broke down even a superior athlete. So what Clark does with his system is try to retrain the body parts to have full flexibility and balanced strength, then chuck old bad habits so the parts move in coordination with each other to equally share the burden of, say, swinging a bat.
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Looking Ahead to 2012 - Alex Rodriguez
You can make the case that no player is going to be more important to the Yankees’ chance of winning the World Series this year than Alex Rodriguez. His health and his performance could be the difference between a great season for the team and a bad one.
2011
Last year Rodriguez had a strong spring training, hitting .388/.444/.898 with six homers. He looked healthy and carried that into the regular season, where he hit .321/.452/.696 through his first 17 games. Unfortunately, it was not sustainable as he proceeded to hit .289/.343/.438 until July 7, at which point it was determined that he needed knee surgery and he was placed on the DL. Rodriguez returned on August 21 and finished up the year by hitting a WOE-ful .191/.345/.353.
It was a disappointing season, particularly when compared to his 2010 and his 2011 projections entering the season.
| projection | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | HBP | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 |
| 2010 | 595 | 522 | 141 | 29 | 2 | 30 | 59 | 3 | 98 | .270 | .341 | .506 | .360 | 88 | 96 |
| avg 2011 proj | 428 | 368 | 101 | 18 | 1 | 23 | 50 | 6 | 78 | .274 | .365 | .511 | .377 | 67 | 102 |
| 2011 | 428 | 373 | 103 | 21 | 0 | 16 | 47 | 5 | 80 | .276 | .362 | .461 | .360 | 61 | 92 |
| delta | 5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | -7 | -3 | -1 | 2 | .002 | -.003 | -.050 | -.016 | -7 | -10 |
By pro-rating his average projection to his actual 2011 PA we can see that the primary problem was the lower home run rate. Most of his other stats were right around where they projected to be on a rate basis.
There was some good news in 2011. Rodriguez had what might have been his best defensive season at 3B. Zone rating had him at about 10 runs saved compared to average, UZR had him around 8, Plus/Minus had him around 9 and Totalzone had him around 7. Rodriguez is more valuable if he can play a good 3B, although given the ongoing concerns with his health it may not be the best way to maximize his availability.
So what might be in store for 2012? Funny you should ask…
Offensive Projections
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAR |
| cairo | 459 | 398 | 65 | 109 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 78 | 6 | 2 | 53 | 82 | 10 | 5 | .273 | .364 | .474 | .365 | 67 | 95 | 30 |
| davenport | 476 | 418 | 62 | 113 | 22 | 1 | 21 | 72 | 5 | 3 | 55 | 86 | 10 | 4 | .270 | .361 | .478 | .367 | 69 | 95 | 29 |
| marcel | 474 | 412 | 63 | 110 | 21 | 1 | 20 | 78 | 7 | 2 | 51 | 86 | 10 | 5 | .267 | .350 | .468 | .355 | 67 | 92 | 29 |
| oliver | 523 | 457 | 66 | 121 | 23 | 1 | 22 | 73 | 5 | 2 | 56 | 91 | 12 | 5 | .265 | .348 | .464 | .353 | 72 | 90 | 30 |
| pecota | 572 | 499 | 80 | 137 | 24 | 1 | 30 | 84 | 9 | 2 | 67 | 112 | 12 | 6 | .275 | .368 | .507 | .379 | 90 | 102 | 44 |
| zips | 466 | 405 | 61 | 107 | 20 | 1 | 21 | 81 | 7 | 2 | 51 | 89 | 11 | 5 | .264 | .350 | .474 | .357 | 66 | 93 | 29 |
| average | 495 | 429 | 70 | 117 | 22 | 1 | 22 | 78 | 6 | 2 | 55 | 91 | 11 | 5 | .273 | .359 | .481 | .362 | 73 | 96 | 33 |
| 2011 | 428 | 373 | 67 | 103 | 21 | 0 | 16 | 62 | 4 | 1 | 47 | 80 | 13 | 5 | .276 | .362 | .461 | .360 | 61 | 92 | 26 |
| 2011 AL | 428 | 384 | 50 | 99 | 20 | 2 | 11 | 48 | 8 | 3 | 35 | 77 | 9 | 4 | .258 | .323 | .408 | .319 | 49 | 75 |
For more information about the projections above, you can read the first post in this series.
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
I’ve included his 2011 and the league average line for his 2011 PA as frames of reference. I haven’t adjusted league average for DNYS, so mentally adjust that upwards to account for the way it boosts offense.
Geez, PECOTA loves it some A-Rod, huh? Most of the other projections are bunched together pretty closely and are probably more realistic as a baseline. Even if that’s the case, they’re good projections on a rate basis. The larger concern is going to be how often he can play. I don’t think an Eric Chavez/Eduardo Nunez contingency plan will be much better than replacement level, so if you look at his average offensive projection pro-rated to different amounts of playing time you can get a feel for the impact.
100 PA: 7 BRAR
200 PA: 13 BRAR
300 PA: 20 BRAR
400 PA: 27 BRAR
500 PA: 33 BRAR
600 PA: 40 BRAR
700 PA: 46 BRAR
CAIRO Percentiles Forecast
I can’t stomach the fact that PECOTA changed it’s underlying components and assumptions in a bunch of ways to make Rodriguez look better than CAIRO, so here’s where I can fix that.
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAR |
| 80% | 597 | 517 | 95 | 155 | 33 | 2 | 31 | 113 | 11 | 1 | 78 | 95 | 10 | 10 | .299 | .420 | .550 | .415 | 109 | 119 | 61 |
| 65% | 528 | 457 | 80 | 131 | 27 | 1 | 25 | 95 | 8 | 1 | 65 | 89 | 9 | 7 | .286 | .398 | .512 | .390 | 87 | 107 | 44 |
| Baseline | 459 | 398 | 65 | 109 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 78 | 6 | 2 | 53 | 82 | 10 | 5 | .273 | .375 | .474 | .365 | 67 | 95 | 30 |
| 35% | 413 | 358 | 55 | 93 | 17 | 0 | 15 | 66 | 4 | 2 | 44 | 78 | 11 | 6 | .260 | .358 | .437 | .344 | 54 | 84 | 20 |
| 20% | 367 | 318 | 46 | 79 | 13 | 0 | 12 | 56 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 73 | 11 | 6 | .247 | .341 | .399 | .322 | 41 | 73 | 12 |
I have a hunch that a healthy Rodriguez just might hit somewhere between that 65% and 80% forecast. What I don’t have a hunch on is whether a healthy Alex Rodriguez even exists any more. But WTH, it’s spring training. Let’s go with it. If Rodriguez hits that 80% forecast and gets 700 PA his line would look like this.
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAR |
| 80% | 700 | 606 | 112 | 182 | 39 | 3 | 36 | 133 | 13 | 1 | 92 | 112 | 12 | 11 | .299 | .420 | .550 | .415 | 128 | 119 | 71 |
That probably makes him the AL MVP.
Base Running
| Year | gaR | aaR | haR | oaR | SBR | BRR |
| 2008 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | -0.12 | 1.9 |
| 2009 | 2.7 | -1.0 | -1.7 | 0.0 | 1.15 | 1.1 |
| 2010 | 0.9 | 0.3 | -1.6 | 0.0 | -0.03 | -0.5 |
| 2011 | 0.8 | 1.5 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.06 | 1.8 |
| Projection | 1.2 | 0.5 | -0.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 |
Rodriguez doesn’t steal bases much any more, which is probably prudent since it reduces his injury risk. He still runs the bases pretty well overall though.
gaR:base running runs above average on ground ball outs
aaR:base running runs above average on fly ball outs
haR:base running runs above average on hits
oaR:base running runs above average on wild pitches/passed balls
SBR: stolen base runs above average
Defense
| pos | Inn | DRS | UZR | TZ | ZR | avg | |
| 3B | 967 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0 |
DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating
Rodriguez’s great defensive season in 2012 doesn’t quite make up for the fact that he was below average for the prior four seasons, but it has improved his projection to about average. For comparison’s sake, he projected at around -4 heading into 2011.
Value
| Projection | RAA | Rep | Pos | RAR | BRR | Def | WAR |
| cairo | 14 | 14 | 2 | 30 | 0.8 | 0 | 3.1 |
| marcel | 12 | 15 | 2 | 29 | 0.8 | 0 | 3.0 |
| oliver | 12 | 16 | 2 | 30 | 0.8 | 0 | 3.1 |
| pecota | 24 | 18 | 2 | 44 | 0.8 | 0 | 4.5 |
| zips | 12 | 15 | 2 | 29 | 0.8 | 0 | 3.0 |
| average | 16 | 16 | 2 | 33 | 0.8 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 2011 | 11 | 13 | 2 | 26 | 1.9 | 9 | 3.7 |
Rep: Replacement level adjustment (22 runs per 700 PA pro-rated to projected PA)
Pos: Position-adjustment
RAR: Runs above replacement (Rep + Pos)
BRR: Base running runs (does not include SB)
Def: Projected runs saved defensively
WAR: Wins above replacement (RAR + BRR + Def) divided by 10
I realize I sound like a broken record, or should I say a corrupted MP3 file, at this point, but it really all comes down to how often Rodriguez can play this year. He’s not what he used to be, but he still projects as one of the Yankees’ top three offensive players. If the Raul Ibanez experiment doesn’t work, Rodriguez as the DH vs. RHP with Eric Chavez at 3B might be the best alignment the Yankees can use vs. RHP since Rodriguez has a pretty small projected platoon split (wOBA of .371 vs. LHP and .363 RHP).
I was contemplating what kind of contract Rodriguez would have gotten if he were a free agent this past offseason? If I project Rodriguez out through the end of his contract in CAIRO, here’s how it looks.
edit: Updated Table
| Year | Age | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAR |
| 2012 | 37 | 459 | 398 | 65 | 109 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 78 | 6 | 2 | 53 | 82 | 10 | 5 | .274 | .364 | .475 | .365 | 67 | 30 |
| 2013 | 38 | 436 | 378 | 54 | 101 | 19 | 1 | 16 | 65 | 6 | 2 | 47 | 80 | 10 | 5 | .267 | .349 | .446 | .347 | 59 | 23 |
| 2014 | 39 | 414 | 359 | 42 | 94 | 17 | 1 | 12 | 51 | 5 | 2 | 43 | 83 | 9 | 5 | .263 | .342 | .417 | .334 | 51 | 18 |
| 2015 | 40 | 394 | 341 | 33 | 88 | 15 | 1 | 10 | 40 | 4 | 2 | 39 | 85 | 9 | 4 | .259 | .334 | .393 | .321 | 45 | 14 |
| 2016 | 41 | 374 | 324 | 26 | 83 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 3 | 2 | 35 | 88 | 8 | 4 | .256 | .327 | .372 | .310 | 40 | 11 |
| 2017 | 42 | 355 | 308 | 20 | 78 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 91 | 8 | 4 | .252 | .320 | .355 | .301 | 35 | 8 |
| 2432 | 2109 | 356 | 553 | 96 | 5 | 70 | 289 | 26 | 11 | 248 | 508 | 53 | 26 | .262 | .341 | .413 | .332 | 296 | 104 |
If you use that with an estimated defensive decline of 1.5 runs per season, here’s a look at Rodriguez’s projected WAR, Value (assuming $5M per win) and salary.
edit: Updated table
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | Total |
| WAR | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 8.2 |
| Value | $15 | $11 | $8 | $5 | $2 | $0 | $41 |
| Salary | $29 | $28 | $25 | $21 | $20 | $20 | $143 |
If this is how the rest of his career plays out, a fair market deal is probably 6 years and $41M. Is an overpayment of $102M bad? It’s probably not as bad as a $36M overpayment and a lost draft pick for zero value, speaking hypothetically. But I digress…
I’ve been negligent in fulfilling my pie chart duties of late, so here’s one that compares the average projected value for all of the remaining seasons to the average salary owed.
If Rodriguez’s career does play out the way this projection says it will, he’ll end up with a career line that looks like this.
edit: Updated table
| PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 10634 | 9199 | 1824 | 2775 | 495 | 29 | 629 | 1893 | 305 | 73 | 1166 | 1916 | 222 | 157 | .302 | .385 | .567 |
| 2432 | 2109 | 356 | 553 | 96 | 5 | 70 | 289 | 26 | 11 | 248 | 508 | 53 | 26 | .262 | .341 | .413 |
| 13066 | 11308 | 2180 | 3328 | 591 | 34 | 699 | 2182 | 331 | 84 | 1414 | 2424 | 275 | 183 | .294 | .377 | .538 |
Here’s the same thing, but with two additional scenarios. In the first one he hits his 65% forecast in 2012 and in the second one he hits his 80% forecast.
edit: Updated table.
| 2012_% | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| Baseline | 13066 | 11308 | 2180 | 3328 | 591 | 34 | 699 | 2182 | 331 | 84 | 1414 | 2424 | 275 | 183 | .294 | .377 | .538 |
| 65% | 13560 | 11732 | 2604 | 3469 | 622 | 37 | 724 | 2270 | 341 | 81 | 1503 | 2497 | 277 | 197 | .296 | .381 | .540 |
| 80% | 13826 | 11962 | 2834 | 3565 | 646 | 41 | 742 | 2325 | 351 | 77 | 1556 | 2515 | 271 | 209 | .298 | .385 | .545 |
It’s looking less and less likely to me that Rodriguez will catch Hank Aaron or Barry Bonds. Then again, now that he’s got the scarlet S on his chest I don’t know that passing them would be worth as much as it would have been if he were ‘clean.’
I have to admit that a small part of me still thinks we may see an MVP-caliber season out of Rodriguez this year followed up by a better than expected decline through the end of his contract. It’s not likely, but it’s possible.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
MLB Buzz: Burnett talks remain at impasse
Forget the Burnett part since we’ve got that covered. This is the point that I want to focus on.
If a deal is completed, the Yankees plan to move quickly to sign free-agent designated hitter Raul Ibanez and infielder Eric Chavez, sources said. One or both of those signings could occur even if Burnett is not moved.
This seems stupid to me. I’ve made no secret about the fact that I don’t think Chavez is a viable insurance policy for an Alex Rodriguez injury, and I don’t see what Ibanez brings that Russell Branyan doesn’t.
If they offer guaranteed money to either player, they’re idiots.
Why do I expect them to offer guaranteed money to both? No, it’s not likely to be a lot of money, but for a team that is pinching pennies and might need to upgrade in-season, I don’t see the point.
Friday, January 20, 2012
TGS NY: Alex Rodriguez preparing to play third
“I think the vision for us as a team is now ... you want the DH spot to be one that’s kind of a revolving door,” he said in an interview with ESPNdeportes’ Alvaro Morales. “I think a lot of us at some point or another, in such a long season, are going occupy that spot.
“But for me, I’m really excited about playing third base.”
Rodriguez probably had his best defensive season at 3B in 2011, at least if you believe the various fielding metrics. The question is whether or not he can stay healthy all year if he’s playing 3B full-time. It seems to me that hip and knee injuries aren’t the kind of thing that will be helped by the lateral movement involved in playing 3B, but then again they don’t seem to be the kind of thing that can be avoided by DHing, since he’ll be putting plenty of stress on both in the batter’s box.
The Yankees should plan to get 450 PA from Rodriguez at best. That means they need a viable backup who can play 3B full-time for a month or two if necessary. I suppose that could be Eduardo Nunez if he can stop playing heinous defense, but I’m not sure how likely that is. I don’t think Eric Chavez is the guy, because he’s not really a good bet to stay healthy and I don’t even know if he’s got any offense left in him. If Rodriguez can play more than that, great. But they shouldn’t plan around him playing 150 games in 2012.
With the news that Carlos Pena is now off the market, the Yankees’ options for DH look a bit thinner, so I’m hoping they do something soon. I’m still hoping for Wilson Betemit, but I’d be surprised if that’s what they do.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Fox Sports: Klapisch: Yanks end days of splurging on talent
There are two factors in play here. The first has to do with Hal Steinbrenner’s desire to save money, as opposed to his father, George, who funneled most of the Yankees’ profits back into the payroll. Peel away the layers of Yankees rhetoric, and what the younger Steinbrenner wants is to make money and win championships. In that order.
That plays into the second co-efficient: Just how much does a team have to spend to rule the world? The Yankees used to be obsessed with assembling a nuclear roster — a superstar at every position, if that’s what it took.
But what did that philosophy really yield? The Yankees have won only one World Series since 2000, nearly $2 billion in outlay for one ring in 2009. It’s a horrific return on investment, a revelation that finally hit home this past October.
The Yankees led the American League with 97 wins, spent more than anyone else with a $203 million payroll, yet were bounced in the first round of the playoffs.
“And it wasn’t just us,” said a team official. “Look at the Phillies.”
Indeed, the Yankees point to Philadelphia’s failure to win the pennant in the past two years — despite adding Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay — as proof that there’s no such thing as a sure thing. Not anymore.
If only they’d realized this before signing Rafael Soriano. That $12M per year plus $4-5M luxury tax hit plus first round draft pick could surely have been put to better use, no?
If you think about this logically, the Yankees have a lot of bad contracts that are tying their hands. If any team could take any one of the following players for free providing they had to pay their entire salaries would they?
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Mark Teixeira
A.J. Burnett
Soriano
I doubt it. That’s like what, $80M per year?
Sunday, November 13, 2011
ESPN.com: Yanks demand a slimmer Phil Hughes
Last season, Hughes was supposed to graduate to become CC Sabathia’s new wingman, the No. 2 starter the Yankees could turn to in the postseason. Instead, he arrived to spring with a couple of extra pounds on his frame and a few miles per hour missing from his fastball. He finished the year 5-5 with a 5.79 ERA.
“He came him into spring training a little bit out of shape,” Cashman said. “Not grossly, not overly, but he wasn’t in optimal position when spring training opened. That is not going to happen in 2012. He had to deal with it. We have what we call ‘fat camp’ so he went into that program to do the extra work to close the gap. You are in better position if you can get that all taken care of in the wintertime.”
Joba was not invited to the fat camp seeing as how he’s just “big boned”.
Also, A-Rod determined to rebound for Yankees:
“I know Yankees fans were disappointed last year, but [they] won’t be next year,” Rodriguez said.
To that end, what is going on in Miami is more vital to the Yankees than what is going on in The Bronx executive offices. Rodriguez has returned home to rebuild, refashion and rehabilitate himself. Both sickened and motivated by how 2011 played out (“There are nights I still have trouble sleeping — we could have been the St. Louis Cardinals.”), Rodriguez triggered his offseason workouts three weeks earlier than normal.
His initial program has been about strengthening and stabilizing a right knee that underwent surgery for a torn meniscus in mid-July. The knee never did seem right late in the year as Rodriguez lost his power stroke and endured the kind of pre-2009 postseason that made him again the enemy of the Yankees state. He kept refusing excuses, but it was clear that he was not 100 percent. He found the pride to get on the field, but could not revive enough of his skills to make his presence matter.
Rodriguez’s strategy is to lose at least five pounds and shake that robotic feeling that haunted him, particularly late in the 2011 campaign. The mantra is get lighter, more flexible, more agile. The term he repeats is “functional movement,” and he says this was his mindset and body condition in 2007-08, “which were the best years of my career.”
Getting that right knee healthy would go a long way towards Rodriguez regaining his swing. As a righty, that knee endures a lot of pressure and motion with every swing - even a little tweak can throw off a batter’s form.
Of course, Rodriguez will be turning 37 next year. Even if close to optimal health, he may not produce like he did in 2008 or even 2009.
But it sure would be nice to see him try.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
CAIRO 2012 v0.1
I’m heading on vacation for about three weeks, and will probably not be online at all, so I’m releasing my 2012 CAIRO v0.1 now, even though they still need a bit of work. If you have any players you want projected that aren’t in here or see anything that looks off let me know in this thread and I’ll check it when I get back. In the meantime Jonathan will keep you covered on the major happenings in Yankee-land. I hope to return with the news that the Yankees have re-signed CC and won the posting for Yu Darvish, but we’ll see what happens.
Here are some of the key Yankees’ projections.
| Last | First | Age | Pos | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | WAR |
| Cano | Robinson | 30 | 2B | 676 | 620 | 97 | 188 | 42 | 4 | 25 | 100 | 5 | 3 | 42 | 84 | .303 | .352 | .504 | .352 | 95 | 4.1 |
| Granderson | Curtis | 31 | CF | 644 | 560 | 103 | 147 | 24 | 7 | 32 | 86 | 16 | 6 | 73 | 142 | .263 | .351 | .502 | .350 | 92 | 4.0 |
| Teixeira | Mark | 32 | 1B | 692 | 594 | 98 | 156 | 34 | 1 | 33 | 109 | 3 | 1 | 81 | 113 | .263 | .359 | .493 | .352 | 98 | 2.7 |
| Rodriguez | Alex | 37 | 3B | 459 | 398 | 65 | 109 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 78 | 6 | 2 | 53 | 82 | .273 | .363 | .474 | .351 | 63 | 2.6 |
| Montero | Jesus | 23 | C | 380 | 348 | 42 | 93 | 19 | 1 | 17 | 49 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 69 | .267 | .322 | .470 | .326 | 48 | 2.2 |
| Martin | Russell | 29 | C | 511 | 443 | 60 | 112 | 19 | 0 | 13 | 54 | 9 | 3 | 59 | 81 | .253 | .347 | .383 | .319 | 56 | 2.2 |
| Swisher | Nick | 32 | RF | 626 | 533 | 84 | 138 | 31 | 1 | 24 | 82 | 2 | 2 | 80 | 129 | .259 | .356 | .455 | .341 | 81 | 2.2 |
| Jeter | Derek | 38 | SS | 581 | 519 | 82 | 149 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 56 | 16 | 5 | 46 | 83 | .286 | .345 | .384 | .317 | 64 | 2.1 |
| Gardner | Brett | 29 | LF | 484 | 418 | 74 | 109 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 38 | 35 | 8 | 53 | 82 | .262 | .347 | .371 | .315 | 56 | 1.0 |
| Romine | Austin | 24 | C | 346 | 321 | 37 | 78 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 62 | .242 | .294 | .365 | .282 | 31 | 0.8 |
| Maxwell | Justin | 29 | CF | 267 | 233 | 33 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 31 | 79 | .220 | .315 | .397 | .303 | 29 | 0.8 |
| Laird | Brandon | 25 | 3B | 392 | 364 | 42 | 90 | 18 | 1 | 13 | 50 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 72 | .247 | .292 | .407 | .291 | 39 | 0.8 |
| Nunez | Eduardo | 25 | 3B | 281 | 256 | 34 | 67 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 20 | 35 | .262 | .315 | .392 | .299 | 30 | 0.7 |
| Jones | Andruw | 35 | RF | 315 | 271 | 38 | 61 | 13 | 1 | 14 | 41 | 4 | 1 | 37 | 76 | .224 | .320 | .431 | .313 | 36 | 0.7 |
| Cervelli | Francisco | 26 | C | 185 | 164 | 20 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 32 | .264 | .328 | .373 | .303 | 18 | 0.6 |
| Posada | Jorge | 41 | DH | 420 | 368 | 44 | 94 | 20 | 1 | 16 | 55 | 2 | 1 | 46 | 87 | .255 | .340 | .442 | .329 | 51 | 0.6 |
| Molina | Gustavo | 30 | C | 131 | 121 | 12 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 25 | .240 | .285 | .376 | .278 | 12 | 0.3 |
| Bernier | Doug | 32 | SS | 346 | 310 | 34 | 71 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 28 | 76 | .227 | .291 | .324 | .267 | 27 | 0.2 |
| Pena | Ramiro | 27 | SS | 201 | 183 | 23 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 35 | .240 | .290 | .340 | .272 | 17 | 0.2 |
| Curtis | Colin | 27 | LF | 231 | 209 | 26 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 44 | .244 | .312 | .391 | .299 | 24 | 0.2 |
| Dickerson | Chris | 30 | LF | 188 | 165 | 23 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 46 | .243 | .321 | .369 | .298 | 19 | 0.2 |
| Chavez | Eric | 35 | 3B | 149 | 136 | 15 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 31 | .243 | .298 | .364 | .282 | 14 | 0.1 |
| Golson | Greg | 27 | CF | 216 | 198 | 23 | 47 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 51 | .235 | .285 | .355 | .273 | 19 | 0.1 |
| Russo | Kevin | 28 | 2B | 384 | 350 | 41 | 83 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 73 | .236 | .295 | .329 | .272 | 31 | 0.0 |
| Last | First | Age | Role | G | GS | IP | H | HR | BB | IBB | SO | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| Sabathia | CC | 32 | SP | 33 | 33 | 227 | 218 | 19 | 64 | 4 | 201 | 3.25 | 3.23 | 64 | 6.4 |
| Nova | Ivan | 25 | SP | 30 | 29 | 168 | 176 | 19 | 67 | 2 | 104 | 4.48 | 4.52 | 23 | 2.3 |
| Rivera | Mariano | 43 | RP | 65 | 0 | 65 | 50 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 59 | 2.21 | 2.71 | 23 | 2.3 |
| Burnett | A.J. | 36 | SP | 32 | 32 | 190 | 198 | 26 | 79 | 2 | 164 | 4.88 | 4.52 | 19 | 1.9 |
| Colon | Bartolo | 39 | SP | 23 | 22 | 134 | 145 | 18 | 35 | 3 | 103 | 4.16 | 4.07 | 18 | 1.8 |
| Robertson | David | 27 | RP | 63 | 0 | 62 | 50 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 78 | 2.70 | 2.84 | 18 | 1.8 |
| Garcia | Freddy | 37 | SP | 18 | 17 | 102 | 112 | 12 | 30 | 3 | 64 | 4.28 | 4.28 | 18 | 1.8 |
| Hughes | Phil | 26 | SP | 22 | 16 | 95 | 97 | 12 | 32 | 1 | 74 | 4.72 | 4.26 | 13 | 1.3 |
| Soriano | Rafael | 33 | RP | 46 | 0 | 45 | 37 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 43 | 3.57 | 3.64 | 9 | 0.9 |
| Chamberlain | Joba | 27 | RP | 47 | 5 | 69 | 68 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 64 | 4.04 | 3.72 | 8 | 0.8 |
| Warren | Adam | 25 | SP | 28 | 28 | 147 | 173 | 18 | 57 | 0 | 85 | 5.28 | 4.72 | 7 | 0.7 |
| Wade | Cory | 29 | RP | 37 | 0 | 43 | 43 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 30 | 3.86 | 4.31 | 6 | 0.6 |
| Feliciano | Pedro | 36 | RP | 64 | 0 | 48 | 52 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 40 | 4.09 | 3.83 | 6 | 0.6 |
| Logan | Boone | 28 | RP | 56 | 0 | 43 | 45 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 41 | 3.82 | 3.71 | 6 | 0.6 |
| Ayala | Luis | 34 | RP | 42 | 0 | 46 | 48 | 5 | 17 | 2 | 31 | 3.99 | 4.40 | 5 | 0.5 |
| Phelps | David | 26 | SP | 28 | 27 | 152 | 185 | 23 | 50 | 0 | 88 | 5.44 | 4.88 | 4 | 0.4 |
| Prior | Mark | 32 | SP | 13 | 10 | 47 | 52 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 33 | 4.91 | 4.44 | 4 | 0.4 |
| Valdes | Raul | 35 | RP | 30 | 3 | 47 | 51 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 40 | 4.72 | 4.08 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Marte | Damaso | 37 | RP | 43 | 0 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 30 | 4.68 | 4.36 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Farnham | Jeffrey | 25 | RP | 35 | 0 | 37 | 36 | 4 | 19 | 2 | 30 | 4.53 | 4.51 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Flannery | Ryan | 27 | RP | 58 | 0 | 70 | 79 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 42 | 4.91 | 4.43 | 2 | 0.2 |
| Mitre | Sergio | 31 | RP | 31 | 2 | 51 | 52 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 28 | 4.55 | 4.58 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Laffey | Aaron | 27 | RP | 30 | 5 | 54 | 65 | 6 | 24 | 1 | 29 | 4.85 | 4.77 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Norton | Tim | 29 | RP | 39 | 0 | 45 | 47 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 40 | 4.98 | 4.71 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Noesi | Hector | 25 | RP | 31 | 10 | 79 | 94 | 12 | 26 | 2 | 53 | 5.44 | 4.80 | -3 | -0.3 |
| Whelan | Kevin | 28 | RP | 36 | 0 | 39 | 41 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 32 | 5.70 | 5.30 | -3 | -0.3 |
| Mitchell | D. J. | 25 | SP | 32 | 30 | 171 | 205 | 22 | 86 | 0 | 92 | 5.81 | 5.26 | -3 | -0.3 |
| Schmidt | Josh | 30 | RP | 60 | 1 | 75 | 81 | 9 | 46 | 1 | 57 | 5.48 | 5.06 | -3 | -0.3 |
| Venditte | Pat | 27 | RP | 61 | 0 | 82 | 94 | 12 | 35 | 1 | 58 | 5.55 | 4.96 | -4 | -0.4 |
| Isabel | George | 23 | RP | 41 | 0 | 42 | 45 | 7 | 29 | 1 | 33 | 6.03 | 5.80 | -5 | -0.5 |
| Reyes | Yobanny | 24 | RP | 45 | 0 | 48 | 53 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 35 | 5.93 | 5.60 | -5 | -0.5 |
| DeLuca | Evan | 21 | SP | 19 | 19 | 92 | 105 | 14 | 53 | 1 | 62 | 6.07 | 5.48 | -5 | -0.5 |
| Proctor | Scott | 36 | RP | 34 | 0 | 36 | 42 | 7 | 21 | 2 | 28 | 6.38 | 5.92 | -5 | -0.5 |
| Banuelos | Manny | 21 | SP | 26 | 26 | 126 | 147 | 19 | 72 | 1 | 88 | 6.01 | 5.43 | -5 | -0.5 |
| Betances | Dellin | 24 | SP | 16 | 16 | 73 | 82 | 12 | 47 | 0 | 55 | 6.29 | 5.75 | -5 | -0.5 |
| Stoneburner | Graham | 25 | SP | 22 | 21 | 111 | 137 | 19 | 45 | 0 | 64 | 6.10 | 5.48 | -6 | -0.6 |
| Kontos | George | 27 | RP | 30 | 5 | 56 | 65 | 11 | 27 | 0 | 39 | 6.03 | 5.64 | -6 | -0.6 |
WAR for position players does NOT include defense yet.
You can download the full spreadsheet here. I still need to add catcher defense and zone rating/total zone to the other fielders, and playing times are likely to be somewhat off. I need to double-check my MLEs since I usually find a mistake or two so don’t get too hung up on the minor leaguers’ projections just yet.
If I was to build a preliminary depth chart for the 2012 Yankees right now using the players currently under contract, it’d look something like this.
| Player | Pos | PA | BR | Player | Role | IP | R |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 580 | 64 | Sabathia, CC | SP1 | 220 | 87 |
| Granderson, Curtis | CF | 640 | 91 | Nova, Ivan | SP2 | 200 | 109 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 670 | 95 | Hughes, Phil | SP3 | 175 | 94 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 459 | 63 | Burnett, A.J. | SP4 | 185 | 107 |
| Teixeira, Mark | 1B | 675 | 95 | Noesi, Hector | SP5 | 140 | 91 |
| Swisher, Nick | RF | 625 | 81 | Betances, Dellin | SP6 | 50 | 38 |
| Montero, Jesus | DH | 550 | 69 | Banuelos, Manny | SP7 | 50 | 36 |
| Martin, Russell | C | 500 | 55 | Brackman, Andrew | SP8 | 0 | 0 |
| Gardner, Brett | LF | 550 | 63 | Rivera, Mariano | CL | 60 | 16 |
| Nunez, Eduardo | IF | 340 | 36 | Robertson, David | SU | 80 | 26 |
| Cervelli, Francisco | C | 250 | 25 | Soriano, Rafael | SU | 65 | 27 |
| Pena, Ramiro | IF | 50 | 4 | Logan, Boone | MR | 60 | 29 |
| Dickerson, Chris | OF | 300 | 31 | Wade, Cory | MR | 70 | 33 |
| Golson, Greg | OF | 50 | 4 | Chamberlain, Joba | MR | 60 | 30 |
| Laird, Brandon | IF | 50 | 5 | Laffey, Aaron | LR | 25 | 15 |
| Russo, Kevin | UT | 25 | 2 | Warren, Adam | LR | 0 | 0 |
| Romine, Austin | C | 0 | 0 | Phelps, David | LR | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 6314 | 784 | Total | 1440 | 737 |
That’s about an 86 win team, before considering defense. If we assume the 2012 Yankees would be about the same as the 2011 Yankees defensively (around +20) then you’re closer to an 88 win team. It’s not impossible to think some of the young pitchers will be better than CAIRO projects, but the offense looks like it could use a bit more oomph, particularly if we assume we’re only going to get about 450 PA of Alex Rodriguez. They probably need someone who can play 3B and outhit/outglove Eduardo Nunez for at least 40 games.
As far as the pitching staff, the Yankees probably should at least consider bringing Freddy Garcia and/or Bartolo Colon back. Garcia projects better than everyone but CC in the rotation, so I’d like to see the Yankees at least offer him arbitration. If he goes elsewhere, they should get a supplemental first round pick. If he can’t find another team he comes back on a one-year deal, which would be great. 150 innings of Garcia instead of Noesi as a starter makes the Yankees about two wins better.
So the Yankees have some work to do this offseason, IMO.
Monday, October 24, 2011
BBTF: 2012 ZiPS Projections - New York Yankees
While we wait for me to take the Marcels and change the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better, the first set of 2012 Yankee projections are out. With CHONE now being gobbled up by some MLB team, these are probably the best projections available now, and I know Dan Szymborski puts a ton of work into making it so.
I’ll just show the starters here..
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Robinson Cano L 2B 29 .299 .347 .506 156 609 92 182 41 5 25 103 40 76 6 3 121 Mark Teixeira B 1B 32 .263 .359 .495 147 562 88 148 32 1 32 109 76 112 2 1 122 Curtis Granderson L CF 31 .256 .346 .495 147 547 104 140 22 8 31 92 71 143 16 7 118 Alex Rodriguez R 3B 36 .264 .350 .474 108 405 62 107 20 1 21 82 51 89 7 2 115 Jesus Montero R C 22 .271 .333 .486 156 576 79 156 37 3 27 93 55 116 0 0 112 Nick Swisher B RF 31 .253 .358 .456 142 498 76 126 27 1 24 82 80 129 1 2 113 Andruw Jones R LF 35 .234 .335 .455 80 222 31 52 10 0 13 38 32 65 3 1 106 Brett Gardner L LF 28 .260 .352 .370 149 462 80 120 17 8 6 39 61 91 43 10 91 Russell Martin R C 29 .249 .346 .382 123 422 60 105 17 0 13 58 58 76 10 4 92 Jorge Posada B 1B 40 .238 .329 .414 105 324 35 77 15 0 14 47 41 80 1 1 94 Eduardo Nunez R SS 25 .273 .312 .379 141 480 57 131 23 2 8 48 26 64 21 7 81 Derek Jeter R SS 38 .268 .329 .362 129 542 78 145 22 4 7 58 46 84 14 5 82
And some selected pitchers.
Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ CC Sabathia L 31 3.55 17 8 31 31 218.0 211 86 19 63 189 126 Ivan Nova R 25 4.44 13 10 31 30 178.3 189 88 20 60 111 100 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Bartolo Colon R 39 4.77 7 6 20 19 111.3 121 59 17 32 78 93 Phil Hughes R 26 4.84 9 8 25 22 122.7 127 66 18 44 96 92 Freddy Garcia R 35 4.85 9 8 23 22 128.0 143 69 18 40 75 92 Hector Noesi R 25 5.24 6 6 32 14 103.0 120 60 14 35 68 85 A.J. Burnett R 35 5.31 9 10 28 27 159.3 170 94 25 70 128 84 David Phelps R 25 5.40 6 7 23 22 121.7 148 73 18 39 73 83 Manny Banuelos L 21 5.45 7 8 25 25 115.7 128 70 15 65 85 82 Dellin Betances R 24 5.66 5 7 24 24 105.0 111 66 15 72 85 79 Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ David Robertson R 27 3.06 4 2 69 0 64.7 50 22 5 34 87 146 Mariano Rivera R 42 3.12 3 1 53 0 49.0 44 17 4 10 43 143 Rafael Soriano R 32 3.14 4 2 67 0 63.0 50 22 6 21 74 142 Joba Chamberlain R 26 3.88 3 2 46 0 46.3 43 20 5 14 45 115 Boone Logan L 27 3.91 4 2 62 0 48.3 46 21 5 17 48 114 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Pedro Feliciano L 35 4.30 2 1 33 0 23.0 24 11 2 10 18 104 Cory Wade R 29 4.61 4 4 47 0 56.7 62 29 8 13 37 97 Luis Ayala R 34 4.62 4 3 44 0 50.7 56 26 6 19 32 96 Sergio Mitre R 31 5.08 1 1 26 2 44.3 49 25 6 17 22 88
Go to the link to see whatever players I didn’t include here.
Projections are inherently limited, so remember to take these for what they are. They are rough estimates of a player’s current talent level. They are not predictions for what a player is going to do in 2012, and they are not playing time predictions either.
Friday, October 21, 2011
TGS NY: Yankees scouted Yu Darvish
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told ESPNNewYork.com on Thursday that the team scouted Darvish during the 2011 season, in which he went 18-6 with a 1.44 ERA for the Nippon Ham Fighters.
“We scout Japanese baseball the same way we scout the American League and the National League,” Cashman said. “We had a wave of scouts there all season.”
Hopefully not the same scouts that watched Kei Igawa.
While I fully embrace a pursuit of Darvish, the Yankees aren’t going anywhere until they get clutch postseason players like Allen Craig and David Freese to replace their bums like Nick Swisher, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez.
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Yankee WPA through Game 3 of 2011 ALDS
Win probability added is a stat that tries to estimate how a player has contributed to his team’s chances of winning a game. I don’t think it’s a good statistic for trying to assess value because it is heavily dependent on the contributions of others, but it’s fun to look at if you want a rough idea of which players performances have helped/hurt their teams the most.
Positive means an increase in the probability of winning, negative means a decrease. More positive is more gooder.
If you have anyone in the mainstream media sitting next to you, please send them away. And don’t tell them there’s no Santa Clause.
| Player | WPA |
| Ivan Nova | 0.280 |
| Brett Gardner | 0.269 |
| Jorge Posada | 0.262 |
| Curtis Granderson | 0.081 |
| Russell Martin | 0.078 |
| David Robertson | 0.031 |
| Boone Logan | 0.029 |
| Cory Wade | 0.024 |
| Mariano Rivera | 0.005 |
| Luis Ayala | -0.019 |
| Eric Chavez | -0.043 |
| Alex Rodriguez | -0.060 |
| Robinson Cano | -0.074 |
| Rafael Soriano | -0.097 |
| Andruw Jones | -0.102 |
| Freddy Garcia | -0.122 |
| Mark Teixeira | -0.162 |
| CC Sabathia | -0.237 |
| Nick Swisher | -0.258 |
| Derek Jeter | -0.421 |
FWIW, here are the ten lowest WPA in the 2011 postseason to this point.
| Player | WPA |
| CC Sabathia | -0.237 |
| Koji Uehara | -0.252 |
| Nick Swisher | -0.258 |
| Daniel Hudson | -0.269 |
| Chris Carpenter | -0.286 |
| C.J. Wilson | -0.334 |
| James Shields | -0.354 |
| Brad Ziegler | -0.375 |
| Derek Jeter | -0.421 |
| Cliff Lee | -0.465 |
| Kyle Lohse | -0.542 |
Make it 11, so we can get CC on the list. The more to complain about, the better.
If only the Yankees had signed proven postseason pitcher Cliff Lee…
What the hell, ten best too.
| Player | WPA |
| Ryan Howard | 0.436 |
| Mike Napoli | 0.401 |
| Neftali Feliz | 0.388 |
| Yovani Gallardo | 0.371 |
| Ivan Nova | 0.280 |
| Brett Gardner | 0.269 |
| Lance Berkman | 0.263 |
| Jorge Posada | 0.262 |
| Jason Motte | 0.255 |
| Ryan Braun | 0.251 |
Monday, October 3, 2011
Yankees.com: CC-Verlander shifts to critical Game 3
Sabathia and Verlander each said they would’ve liked to come back to pitch on Sunday in order to keep open the possibility that they would pitch twice in this series. But their respective managers weren’t having it.
Verlander’s conversation with Jim Leyland?
“It went along the lines of, ‘Hey, Skip, I can go on Sunday.’ ‘No, you’re going on Monday.’ ‘OK.’”
“There was no conversation,” Sabathia said of his situation with Girardi. “He told me I was pitching [Monday].”
And now here we are.
We’ll see if the Yankees regret this about 12 hours from now.
A-Rod went 0-for-3 with a walk and heard some boos in Sunday’s loss. He’s now 0-for-8 in these playoffs and is batting .175 (7-for-40) in the postseason since the Yankees’ 2009 World Series title run.
Oh no. A new selective end point has been selected.
Update: Player A vs. Player B
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| A | 115 | .283 | .409 | .554 |
| B | 110 | .168 | .273 | .305 |
Friday, September 30, 2011
2011 ALDS Preview: Tigers vs. Yankees
The first obstacle in the quest to end the dreaded curse of The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske is the Detroit Tigers.
Seriously, it has been 694 days, 11 hours, 15 minutes, and 45 seconds since the New York Yankees have won a World Series. We have suffered long enough, haven’t we? When will this infernal madness end?
So how big of an obstacle are the Tigers? Let’s take a look.
First, I’ll acknowledge the obvious fact that the Tigers played in and won the AL Central which is probably the weakest division in the AL.
I’ll then say that it doesn’t matter. This is a very good team, and it’s not a stretch to envision them representing the AL in the World Series.
If you read the Rays/Rangers preview you can skip the next paragraph.
I don’t particularly find any series previews that focus on what a team did in the preceding full season of much use. It doesn’t really matter if a team scored 5.2 runs per game and allowed 4.2 runs per game over the preceding six months. Rosters change, injuries happen, players come and go, talent changes, and player and team performance is often subject to fluctuations that are not predictive. What I want to know is how many runs will the team and roster as currently configured score and allow. Because of that, for these previews I’ll be using projections in lieu of 2011 stats. Despite having my own system in CAIRO, I’m going to use the Hardball Times’s Oliver forecasts since I haven’t had the time to re-run CAIRO for this year. Oliver is updated weekly during the season and includes 2011 MLEs for players who saw time in the minors.
The biggest consideration in trying to see how any series may shape up is allocating playing time. So here are depth charts for the two teams, based on the assumption that each team will make 25 outs at the plate over 5 games and that pitchers will combine for 45 innings. Since I didn’t have official postseason rosters while writing parts of these, some of it is guesswork and is subject to change.
Here are the Oliver projections for the Tigers’ postseason position players.
| Name | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Jackson, Austin | CF | 21 | .263/.315/.374 | 14 | 2.24 | .303 | .311 | .300 |
| Kelly, Don | 3B | 21 | .268/.312/.413 | 14 | 2.34 | .314 | .286 | .317 |
| Young, Delmon | LF | 21 | .283/.314/.446 | 14 | 2.52 | .327 | .344 | .320 |
| Cabrera, Miguel | 1B | 21 | .334/.422/.602 | 12 | 4.11 | .435 | .455 | .429 |
| Martinez, Victor | C | 21 | .312/.365/.480 | 13 | 3.08 | .367 | .372 | .364 |
| Peralta, Jhonny | SS | 21 | .270/.324/.426 | 14 | 2.50 | .326 | .339 | .321 |
| Avila, Alex | C | 21 | .270/.351/.456 | 14 | 2.89 | .350 | .327 | .356 |
| Dirks, Andy | RF | 21 | .265/.311/.415 | 14 | 2.45 | .315 | .294 | .318 |
| Santiago, Ramon | 2B | 21 | .276/.319/.394 | 14 | 2.30 | .307 | .304 | .308 |
| Starter Total | 189 | .282/.337/.444 | 125 | 24.42 | .338 | .338 | .338 | |
| Bench | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Betemit, Wilson | IF | 0 | .259/.323/.424 | 0 | 0.00 | .325 | .298 | .334 |
| Ordonez, Magglio | OF | 0 | .282/.344/.412 | 0 | 0.00 | .334 | .352 | .329 |
| Raburn, Ryan | OF | 0 | .268/.317/.465 | 0 | 0.00 | .334 | .349 | .323 |
| Rhymes, Will | 2B | 0 | .272/.326/.361 | 0 | 0.00 | .303 | .283 | .307 |
| Inge, Brandon | 3B | 0 | .230/.304/.384 | 0 | 0.00 | .303 | .328 | .294 |
| Worth, Danny | IF | 0 | .229/.284/.328 | 0 | 0.00 | .272 | .283 | .263 |
| Kelly, Don | UT | 0 | .268/.312/.413 | 0 | 0.00 | .314 | .286 | .317 |
| Santos, Omir | C | 0 | .228/.255/.333 | 0 | 0.00 | .255 | .264 | .250 |
| Bench Total | ||||||||
| Team Total | 189 | .282/.337/.444 | 125 | 24.42 | .338 | .338 | .338 |
Outs: Outs at the plate (assumes 25 outs per 9 innings, calculated as (1 - OBP) times PA + GDP per PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
vs. L/R: Projected wOBA splits vs. LHP/RHP using regressed platoon splits
Rather than guess about how the Tigers may allocate playing time, I just gave the expected starting lineup all 125 outs.
The biggest problem here is Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera’s pretty much the best hitter in the AL. In fact, only one player has been a better hitter than him over the last three years, and that’s Albert Pujols. That projected wOBA of .455 vs. LHP is terrifying for Game 1. The Yankees probably don’t have much room for error facing Verlander, so the Cabrera/Sabathia matchup is probably going to be the one to watch. You can see by the OBP of the rest of the team that keeping people like Austin Jackson, Don Kelly and Delmon Young off the bases in front of Cabrera is going to be imperative.
The Tigers overall don’t have much of a projected platoon split, so the Yankees’ lack of left-handed pitching shouldn’t be a big deal.
I don’t think any Tigers fans would disagree that the Yankees’ lineup is better. Their hopes are going to lay on their pitching staff, and that’s not a bad position to be in.
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Verlander, Justin | SP1 | 14 | 4.8 | 3.11 | 2.89 | 3.05 |
| Fister, Doug | SP2 | 6 | 2.6 | 3.94 | 3.67 | 3.49 |
| Scherzer, Max | SP3 | 6 | 3.1 | 4.61 | 4.10 | 3.98 |
| Porcello, Rick | SP4 | 5 | 2.7 | 4.88 | 4.51 | 4.35 |
| Penny, Brad | SP5 | 0 | 0.0 | 5.43 | 4.85 | 4.65 |
| Starter Total | 31 | 13.3 | 3.85 | 3.54 | 3.52 | |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Valverde, Jose | CL | 3 | 1.3 | 3.90 | 3.61 | 3.72 |
| Benoit, Joaquin | SU | 3 | 1.1 | 3.25 | 3.01 | 3.10 |
| Alburquerque, Al | SU | 2 | 0.9 | 4.20 | 3.89 | 3.71 |
| Coke, Phil | SU | 2 | 1.0 | 4.40 | 4.07 | 3.68 |
| Pauley, David | MR | 2 | 1.1 | 4.76 | 4.41 | 4.44 |
| Perry, Ryan | MR | 1 | 0.5 | 4.61 | 4.27 | 4.12 |
| Schlereth, Daniel | MR | 1 | 0.5 | 4.85 | 4.49 | 4.31 |
| Marte, Luis | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.26 | 4.87 | 4.97 |
| Below, Duane | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.49 | 5.08 | 5.33 |
| LR | 0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Reliever Total | 14 | 6.4 | 4.12 | 3.81 | 3.75 | |
| Team Total | 45 | 19.7 | 3.93 | 3.62 | 3.59 |
RA: Runs allowed per 9, calculated as 1.08*ERA
ERA: Earned runs allowed per 9
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
Justin Verlander’s obviously the man here. He’s been the best pitcher in baseball this year and is a worthy MVP candidate. He’s backed up by mid-season acquisition Doug Fister, who’s been sublime for the Tigers. The Tigers are 9-2 in his 11 starts, and he’s pitched 70.1 innings and allowed just 19 runs. He’s faced 273 batters and walked 5 of them. Seriously. He’s probably not quite that good, but he’d project as the second-best starter on the Yankees.
Jim Leyland has said that he will not pitch Verlander on three days rest, so I’m giving Rick Porcello five innings. I don’t know if things would change if the Tigers go down 2-1. If they did that, they could throw Fister in Game 5 and not use Porcello in the rotation at all.
The Tigers’ defense has been about average overall, not much different than the Yankees. So I’m not going to bother with talking about that.
So, how about the Yankees’ projections?
| Name | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 22 | .306/.363/.416 | 14 | 2.83 | .345 | .369 | .337 |
| Granderson, Curtis | CF | 22 | .259/.342/.496 | 14 | 3.24 | .358 | .314 | .374 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 22 | .312/.359/.511 | 14 | 3.38 | .374 | .358 | .381 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 18 | .289/.367/.527 | 11 | 2.89 | .382 | .389 | .380 |
| Teixeira, Mark | 1B | 22 | .265/.357/.498 | 14 | 3.29 | .369 | .380 | .364 |
| Swisher, Nick | RF | 21 | .271/.364/.475 | 13 | 3.03 | .364 | .375 | .359 |
| Posada, Jorge | DH | 16 | .259/.345/.448 | 10 | 2.12 | .347 | .347 | .347 |
| Martin, Russell | C | 21 | .252/.345/.380 | 14 | 2.39 | .326 | .344 | .320 |
| Gardner, Brett | LF | 19 | .269/.353/.376 | 12 | 2.34 | .326 | .306 | .332 |
| Starter Total | 183 | .277/.355/.460 | 118 | 25.50 | .355 | .354 | .355 | |
| Bench | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BR | wOBA | vs. L | vs. R |
| Montero, Jesus | DH | 4 | .278/.329/.483 | 3 | 0.54 | .348 | .361 | .340 |
| Jones, Andruw | OF | 2 | .251/.344/.502 | 1 | 0.30 | .363 | .381 | .357 |
| Nunez, Eduardo | IF | 0 | .278/.308/.381 | 0 | 0.00 | .301 | .302 | .300 |
| Chavez, Eric | 3B | 4 | .245/.296/.355 | 3 | 0.38 | .288 | .257 | .300 |
| Romine, Austin | C | 0 | .246/.289/.364 | 0 | 0.00 | .287 | .300 | .283 |
| Dickerson, Chris | OF | 0 | .239/.315/.341 | 0 | 0.00 | .295 | .272 | .299 |
| Pena, Ramiro | IF | 0 | .239/.283/.327 | 0 | 0.00 | .269 | .256 | .273 |
| Cervelli, Francisco | C | 0 | .263/.314/.365 | 0 | 0.00 | .298 | .310 | .293 |
| Bench Total | 10 | .260/.319/.435 | 7 | 1.22 | .327 | .323 | .327 | |
| Team Total | 193 | .276/.353/.458 | 125 | 26.72 | .353 | .352 | .354 |
I’ve relegated Jesus Montero to pinch-hitting status, since DH vs. LHP is effectively a non-position vs. Detroit. I suppose we may see him pinch-hit for Posada if a one of Phil Coke/Daniel Schlereth is on the mound. Or he could get a start if Posada doesn’t look so good. Statistically, Posada’s projection vs. RHP is better than Montero’s so I suppose it’s the logical approach. I’m also not sanguine on A-Rod playing every inning so I’ve given Chavez four PA, and I’m assuming we may see Andruw Jones pinch-hit for TSBG in a late situation vs. a LHP where an XBH would be of additional benefit.
Oliver thinks the Yankees have the best offense in the postseason, and I’d agree with that. Unfortunately, the Yankees have to pitch too.
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Sabathia, CC | SP1 | 14 | 5.8 | 3.70 | 3.43 | 3.28 |
| Nova, Ivan | SP2 | 12 | 6.4 | 4.77 | 4.36 | 4.33 |
| Garcia, Freddy | SP3 | 5 | 2.6 | 4.60 | 4.36 | 4.33 |
| Colon, Bartolo | SP4 | 0 | 0.0 | 4.82 | 4.04 | 3.97 |
| Burnett, A.J. | SP5 | 0 | 0.0 | 5.21 | 4.82 | 4.49 |
| Hughes, Phil | SP6 | 0 | 0.0 | 4.45 | 4.12 | 4.17 |
| Betances, Dellin | SP7 | 0 | 0.0 | 5.36 | 4.96 | 4.83 |
| Brackman, Andrew | SP8 | 0 | 0.0 | 6.80 | 6.30 | 5.88 |
| Starter Total | 31 | 14.7 | 4.26 | 3.94 | 3.86 | |
| Name | Role | IP | R | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Rivera, Mariano | CL | 3 | 1.0 | 3.03 | 2.81 | 2.89 |
| Robertson, David | SU | 3 | 1.2 | 3.75 | 3.47 | 3.05 |
| Soriano, Rafael | SU | 2 | 0.8 | 3.61 | 3.34 | 3.64 |
| Logan, Boone | SU | 2 | 1.0 | 4.32 | 4.00 | 3.77 |
| Wade, Cory | MR | 2 | 1.0 | 4.38 | 4.06 | 4.09 |
| Ayala, Luis | MR | 2 | 1.0 | 4.50 | 4.17 | 3.92 |
| Noesi, Hector | MR | 0 | 0.0 | 4.59 | 4.25 | 4.03 |
| Proctor, Scott | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.78 | 5.35 | 5.21 |
| Laffey, Aaron | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.56 | 5.15 | 4.59 |
| Kontos, George | LR | 0 | 0.0 | 5.38 | 4.98 | 5.02 |
| Reliever Total | 14 | 6.0 | 3.86 | 3.57 | 3.48 | |
| Team Total | 45 | 20.7 | 4.14 | 3.82 | 3.74 |
The assumption here is CC on three days rest. I’m assuming that Burnett and Hughes won’t pitch even though they’re on the roster, but if they do pitch their innings would probably just replace Ayala or Wade’s and it shouldn’t make a big difference.
The Yankees probably have the worst projected rotation in the postseason. CC’s as good as anyone, but after that there’s some concern about Nova and Garcia. I do think that projection is a little bearish on Nova since we have evidence that his new slider has made a meaningful improvement that wouldn’t be captured in a projection system.
Nova pre-slider: 226 BF, 9.3% BB/BF, 11.5% K/BF, 5.19 RA, 4.29 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 4.92 xFIP
Nova post-slider: 278 BF, 7.5% BB/BF, 15.1% K/BF, 3.52 RA, 3.44 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 4.03 xFIP
The Yankee bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this year, and although the projections think most of them pitched above their head they’re probably still better than Detroit’s from top to bottom. So the Yankees should be able to mitigate their slight disadvantage in the rotation by using the relievers aggressively. I can imagine that any David Robertson/Miguel Cabrera battles are going to be must-see baseball.
These depth charts say this.
| Team | Gms | RS | RA | wpct | p162 |
| DET | 5 | 24.4 | 19.7 | .600 | 97 |
| NYA | 5 | 26.7 | 20.7 | .620 | 100 |
If I play the series out 10,000 times in my Monte Carlo simulator I get these odds.
Yankees: 53.9%
Tigers: 46.1%
If the Tigers do decide to use Verlander in Game 4 and Fister in Game 5 they improve to about a .612 wpct/99 win team. Basically, those two teams are equivalent. The Yankees get the slight edge of one extra home game if necessary. In that case the odds look like this.
Yankees: 51.9%
Tigers: 48.1%
Jack Curry’s Projected Postseason 2011 ALDS Yankee Roster
We still don’t have official ALDS rosters, but Jack Curry used the information that’s been released to try and project them. Here’s who Curry sees on the roster.
Position players (14)
Teixeira
Cano
Jeter
Rodriguez
Chavez
Nunez
Gardner
Granderson
Swisher
Jones
Martin
Posada
Montero
Dickerson
Pitchers (11)
Sabathia
Nova
Garcia
Burnett
Rivera
Robertson
Soriano
Logan
Wade
Ayala
Hughes
I like the roster, for the most part. Nunez shouldn’t be playing at all over Cano and Jeter, and if Rodriguez is unable to play they have a better option in Chavez. I’m happy to not see Austin Romine or Raul Valdes on there, as I don’t think either really helps the team that much right now.
Thursday, September 29, 2011
WSJ: The Yankees Have Many Postseason Roster Decisions
Even with the season ending Wednesday, the Yankee postseason roster is still not set—as a number of decisions could come down to whether the Yankees play Texas or Detroit in the first round.
A few things are set in stone: CC Sabathia will start Game 1 on Friday, and Ivan Nova will start the second game on Saturday. Freddy Garcia looks like the most likely option for Game 3 on Monday, but manager Joe Girardi wouldn’t commit. Meanwhile, it seems likely that Bartolo Colon would not make the roster for the first round.
It’s probably much ado about nothing to think about what the best postseason roster might be since the Yankees are going to do whatever they’re going to do. Then again, blogging by nature is much ado about nothing, so why not?
As the excerpt says, we know CC and Nova are going in 1 and 2. We also know that Girardi intends to start CC on short rest in Game 4, if necessary. That would allow Nova to pitch Game 5 on normal rest. So they probably only need one more starter. It sounds like that will be Freddy Garcia.
Catcher is one area where things get interesting. We know Russell Martin is a lock. Francisco Cervelli is out for the postseason. The only true backup catcher in the organization right now (according to their thought process) is Austin Romine. Romine is not a major league caliber offensive player right now, and may never be one. In an ideal series, he’d never play. So I think I’d rather see the Yankees take just Martin, with Jorge Posada and Jesus Montero available in an emergency. Should Martin get hurt, the Yankees would have the option to add Romine to the roster. They would also have the option to add him to the roster in the ALCS if they made it there by some miracle.
The thing with Posada and Montero is that they’re likely to be DH’ing if they’re in the lineup. So if one of them has to switch to catcher while already in the lineup as DH, the Yankees will lose the DH. For that reason I think you need both of them on the roster.
On the infield, the question is what combination of Eric Chavez, Eduardo Nunez and Ramiro Pena the Yankees will use to backup Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira.
For the outfield, I think you’ll see Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher, Brett Gardner, and Andruw Jones. Chris Dickerson’s probably a long-shot.
In my mind, these are the locks.
Starting Pitchers (3)
Sabathia
Nova
Garcia
Relievers (6)
Rivera
Robertson
Soriano
Logan
Wade
Ayala
Catchers (1)
Martin
Infield (4)
Cano
Jeter
Rodriguez
Teixeira
Outfield (4)
Gardner
Granderson
Swisher
Jones
That’s 18 players, which leaves seven spots which can be filled by some of the following players.
Other pitchers
Burnett
Colon
Hughes
Laffey
Noesi
Valdes
Other catchers
Montero
Posada
Romine
Other infielders
Chavez
Laird
Nunez
Pena
Other outfielders
Dickerson
Golson
I think/hope the Yankees will take Posada/Montero in lieu of Romine. I hope that they’re not going to employ a strict platoon at DH, since it basically means Montero will sit on the bench for the entire series with Detroit. I was hoping they could get by with one backup IF, but given A-Rod’s health issues I’d imagine they’ll take both Chavez and Nunez.That would leave them three more spots for pitchers, but I don’t see carrying 12 pitchers in a 5 game series. So that opens up a spot for someone like Dickerson or Pena or Romine I suppose.
Saturday, September 17, 2011
Yankees.com: Rivera ties Hoffman as Yanks rally past Jays
TORONTO—Move over, Trevor Hoffman. A religious man who reluctantly enters to Metallica music and throws an evil cutter will temporarily keep you company.
Mariano Rivera closed out the Yankees’ 7-6 win against the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on Saturday, giving him 601 career saves and tying him with Hoffman for first place on the all-time list. A rough start by Bartolo Colon found the Yankees down five early, but a three-run homer by Alex Rodriguez and a two-run shot by Curtis Granderson brought them all the way back.
Then Rivera did what he’s done better than any other man over the last 16 years: pitch a scoreless ninth inning to preserve a tight lead.
Not sure why, but I thought today was a night game. Oh well. Yay win, yay Mo.
Friday, September 16, 2011
NY Times: Good Time for Yanks’ Very Rare Day Off
Cano was struck on the side of the right foot by a 95-mile-per-hour fastball from Mariners pitcher Steve Delabar in the 12th inning Wednesday and walked out of the clubhouse with a limp. X-rays performed at Safeco Field were negative, and Cano insisted he would be able to play Friday.
But the Yankees, with a comfortable cushion in the playoff race, will probably proceed with caution. Any long-term loss of Cano would be devastating. He has 26 home runs, 111 runs batted in, 96 runs scored and is batting .305. This is why Twins Manager Ron Gardenhire recently called Cano the scariest member of the Yankees’ intimidating lineup.
That is why the sight of Cano hobbling in obvious pain had to be disconcerting to the Yankees. But Cano, ever optimistic, said he planned to ice his foot in the hotel in Toronto on Thursday, once again highlighting the good timing of the team’s final day off.
“It’s perfect,” Cano said. “I’ll get some treatment tomorrow and be ready to go Friday.”
I didn’t even know that Cano was possibly injured. Alex Rodriguez should probably return in today’s game, but our dreams of the perfect lineup probably won’t happen for at least one more night.
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
NJ.com: Carig: Yankees’ Alex Rodriguez may be out of lineup for a few more days
Banged-up third baseman Alex Rodriguez may not return to the starting lineup until week’s end, Yankees manager Joe Girardi said.
With an off-day on Thursday, Girardi said before tonight’s game against the Seattle Mariners that he may wait to play Rodriguez, who is feeling the effects of a lingering thumb injury.
Since rushing him back into the lineup hasn’t worked, how about erring on the side of caution this time? At least we’ve got Eric Chavez and Nun-E in lieu of Cody Ransom and Angel Berroa this year.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Gant Daily: Knee improving: A-Rod could be ready for return to Yanks Thursday
The slugger is scheduled to play two games for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on Tuesday and Wednesday, and could re-join his major league teammates as early as Thursday.
“The timetable is still the same,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said after the Yankees were rained out of Sunday afternoon’s game against the Rays. “He’ll return sometime in Minnesota. I can’t tell you Thursday [with certainty], but I expect to see him sometime in Minnesota.”
A Thursday return means Rodriguez would have 41 games left to try and extend his meaningless but fun 13 year streak of 30 HR/100 RBI seasons. It’s a safe bet that he’ll be rested some over the rest of the season, so even if he remains healthy it’s almost impossible to see him getting the 17 HRs and 48 RBI he needs to keep it alive, but for the hell of it, here are the best 40 game stretches for HR and RBI in each season of his career.
| Dates | PA | HR | RBI |
| 6/24/02-9/11/02 | 178 | 22 | 48 |
| 6/2/07-4/19/07 | 181 | 21 | 52 |
| 7/5/99-8/27/99 | 183 | 16 | 35 |
| 9/30/01-4/15/01 | 190 | 16 | 48 |
| 7/5/03-4/29/03 | 183 | 16 | 46 |
| 10/14/00-4/29/00 | 181 | 15 | 40 |
| 4/13/05-4/27/05 | 173 | 15 | 38 |
| 4/16/08-7/30/08 | 171 | 15 | 38 |
| 5/16/09-8/9/09 | 175 | 15 | 28 |
| 8/27/98-4/21/98 | 192 | 14 | 33 |
| 6/11/06-9/13/06 | 167 | 14 | 42 |
| 5/17/97-8/27/97 | 175 | 13 | 34 |
| 5/11/96-8/12/96 | 184 | 12 | 31 |
| 10/17/04-7/15/04 | 191 | 12 | 29 |
| 8/14/10-7/1/10 | 169 | 12 | 40 |
| 6/8/95-7/21/95 | 139 | 5 | 19 |
2007 wasn’t that long ago, was it?
Friday, August 12, 2011
A-Rod to play in Dunedin Friday night
Dunedin, FL—The New York Yankees’ Alex Rodriguez will play for the Tampa Yankees, in Dunedin, Friday and Saturday nights, as part of his rehab from knee surgery.
The Tampa Yankees will begin a three game series on Friday night in Dunedin tied for first place in the Florida State League North.
A-Rod has been working his way back from knee surgery on July 11 to repair a torn meniscus, and is expected to play at least two games in Dunedin. He is expected to DH Friday night, and play the field on Saturday.
Rodriguez hasn’t played in a minor league game since 1996. Good news anyway.
Monday, August 8, 2011
MLB.com: Light dimming on Posada’s bright career
BOSTON—A proud Yankees career may be coming to a very quiet end, on the bench.
Jorge Posada, who has been a substantial part of five World Series championship teams, was dropped from the Yankees’ starting lineup on Sunday night. It is unclear when, or if, he might return to his primary 2011 role as the club’s designated hitter.
Yankees manager Joe Girardi spoke with Posada on Sunday and told the veteran that he would no longer serve as the regular DH. Girardi said he could not promise when Posada will next start.
I’ve got mixed feelings on this. Posada’s been such an important Yankee for such a long time that it’s rough to see him struggling the way he has almost all season. I had hoped he’d have a strong year at DH freed from the rigors of catching and augment a career that should be Hall of Fame worthy. As bad as he’s looked at times this season, I am still not sure he doesn’t have something left in him.
That’s the fan in me. The realist in me understands that the Yankees have essentially gotten replacement level production out of DH, and that a player on the roster who cannot play any position, is a bad baserunner and hasn’t hit much really should be on the roster. The Yankees are effectively using a 24 man roster, and that’s compounded by having 13 pitchers. So that limits their flexibility by quite a bit.
For now they can probably rotate their starters through DH and/or use a platoon of Andruw Jones and Eric Chavez. While the prospect of calling up Jesus Montero seems intriguing, I don’t think he fits with the current roster. They could demote Francisco Cervelli to make room for him, but I don’t know how comfortable the Yankees would be with DHing their backup catcher on a regular basis. When things will start getting hairy is when Alex Rodriguez returns from the DL. I suppose the easy move at that time would be to option one of their spare pitchers down to the minors. I get the sense the Yankees won’t release Posada even if it’s the best move they can make.
To be honest, I’m fine with that. I don’t want to see Posada released. The Yankees just need to hold serve for three weeks, at which point rosters can expand and they won’t suffer from the lack of options carrying Posada on the roster may cause. They can give him spot duty and give the fans a chance to say goodbye. And who knows? Maybe he’ll surprise us by rebounding a bit and make himself a viable option again for some DH time.
If the Yankees fail to make the postseason at this point it won’t be because of Posada or the opportunity cost of carrying Posada.
Friday, August 5, 2011
The Monkey On Their Backs
By any reasonable viewpoint, the Yankees have had a great year in 2011. They lead MLB in run differential/Pythagorean record, are tied for the top in the best division in baseball and have gotten a lot of good performances from unexpected places. In particular, a pitching staff that was touted as the team’s Achilles’ heel all offseason has been a legitimate strength.
Despite all that, it seems like a lot of us haven’t fully embraced the good things that this team has done, and I think it really just comes down to one thing. This team has gotten its ass handed to it by Boston every time they’ve played this year.
So who to blame? Here are the splits for the Yankees’ hitters vs. Boston and vice versa.
| Player | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | IBB | HBP | K | SB | CS | BA | OBA | SPct | wOBA | BR |
| Derek Jeter | 44 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | .200 | .273 | .225 | .238 | 1.9 |
| Curtis Granderson | 41 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 1 | .229 | .341 | .571 | .383 | 6.6 |
| Mark Teixeira | 38 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | .121 | .211 | .121 | .171 | 0.2 |
| Nick Swisher | 36 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .188 | .278 | .281 | .258 | 2.7 |
| Robinson Cano | 36 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | .281 | .361 | .500 | .374 | 5.8 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 36 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | .194 | .306 | .419 | .319 | 4.4 |
| Brett Gardner | 35 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | .167 | .286 | .267 | .260 | 2.3 |
| Russell Martin | 27 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .227 | .370 | .636 | .419 | 5.1 |
| Jorge Posada | 20 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .400 | .333 | .342 | 2.3 |
| Andruw Jones | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | .182 | .182 | .455 | .259 | 1.0 |
| Eric Chavez | 8 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .750 | .535 | 2.2 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .571 | .667 | .537 | 1.8 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .286 | .167 | .231 | 0.3 |
| Chris Dickerson | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.240 | 0.9 |
| Total | 347 | 37 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 31 | 1 | 10 | 78 | 6 | 3 | .223 | .314 | .384 | .311 | 37.5 |
| Player | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | IBB | HBP | K | SB | CS | BA | OBA | SPct | wOBA | BR |
| Carl Crawford | 40 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .125 | .125 | .200 | .139 | -0.2 |
| David Ortiz | 42 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .324 | .405 | .676 | .451 | 8.8 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 38 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .371 | .421 | .571 | .430 | 7.6 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 44 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .235 | .386 | .500 | .382 | 6.6 |
| Kevin Youkilis | 42 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | .242 | .381 | .424 | .359 | 5.7 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 39 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .500 | .605 | .733 | .556 | 10.9 |
| J.D. Drew | 33 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .280 | .424 | .400 | .376 | 4.6 |
| Marco Scutaro | 22 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .300 | .364 | .450 | .357 | 3.3 |
| Jed Lowrie | 21 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .316 | .333 | .421 | .322 | 2.3 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 20 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .400 | .556 | .412 | 3.6 |
| Jason Varitek | 18 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .333 | .200 | .270 | 1.2 |
| Mike Cameron | 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .273 | .333 | .364 | .289 | 1.2 |
| Total | 372 | 60 | 92 | 18 | 2 | 12 | 59 | 44 | 6 | 5 | 58 | 6 | 1 | .290 | .379 | .473 | .372 | 55.7 |
wOBA: weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs.
Mark Teixeira has been abysmal vs. Boston this year with some support from Derek Jeter, Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner.
Here’s a “fun” stat for you. Dustin Pedroia has provided more offense in 39 PA versus the Yankees than Jeter, Teixeira, Swisher, Gardner and Jorge Posada have provided in 173 PA against Boston (10.9 BR to 9.4 BR). Maybe fun is not the right word.
Boston’s outscored the Yankees at close to a 2-1 rate and if you compare the BR to the actual runs there’s not a lot of evidence of good or bad luck in there.
Two other things I found interesting aggravating are the HBP and IBB columns.
Well, maybe looking at the pitching will cheer us up.
| Player | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | HBP | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Bartolo Colon | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 4.35 | 2.61 | 3.88 |
| Jeff Marquez | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 2.20 |
| Phil Hughes | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | 27.00 | 12.70 |
| Boone Logan | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 3.41 |
| Lance Pendleton | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16.20 | 16.20 | 20.00 |
| Hector Noesi | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.53 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12.27 | 12.27 | 9.75 |
| Ivan Nova | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8.31 | 8.31 | 4.58 |
| Luis Ayala | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.83 |
| Rafael Soriano | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.20 |
| Freddy Garcia | 0 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 11.25 | 10.13 | 9.20 |
| Mariano Rivera | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.20 |
| A.J. Burnett | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12.71 | 11.12 | 6.55 |
| CC Sabathia | 0 | 3 | 19 | 24 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 3 | 6.16 | 6.16 | 4.20 |
| David Robertson | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4.15 | 2.08 | 3.43 |
| Total | 1 | 8 | 79 | 92 | 60 | 55 | 12 | 44 | 58 | 5 | 6.84 | 6.27 | 5.57 |
| Player | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | HBP | RA | ERA | FIP |
| Dan Wheeler | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 1.20 |
| Daniel Bard | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2.08 | 2.08 | 4.12 |
| Jonathan Papelbon | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 0.60 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 4.91 | 3.68 | 6.47 |
| Jon Lester | 2 | 0 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.37 |
| Rich Hill | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| Matt Albers | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.70 |
| Clay Buchholz | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 5.91 | 5.06 | 5.08 |
| John Lackey | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10.80 | 10.80 | 6.80 |
| Felix Doubront | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13.50 | 13.50 | 11.45 |
| Josh Beckett | 3 | 0 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 4 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 2.72 |
| Tim Wakefield | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 6.14 | 6.14 | 5.52 |
| Bobby Jenks | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.20 |
| Total | 8 | 1 | 81 | 68 | 37 | 35 | 10 | 31 | 78 | 10 | 4.11 | 3.89 | 4.40 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
That didn’t really help.
It would have been nice to have Alex Rodriguez back for this series, although maybe Eric Chavez can stay healthy through Sunday (assuming he’s off tonight with Jon Lester pitching).
Pitching matchups for the weekend are Colon vs. Lester tonight, CC vs. Lackey tomorrow, and Garcia vs. Beckett on Sunday. So the Yankees are probably slight underdogs tonight, favorites tomorrow, and strong underdogs Sunday. Logic says we should be happy if they take one of the three, and that’s the most likely scenario, but after losing 8 of 9 to Boston, including all 6 at home, I won’t be happy with anything less than a sweep.
I suppose I could settle for a 2-1 series win.
Seriously though, barring catastrophe both of these teams will be in the postseason, so I suppose we shouldn’t get that worked up about whatever happens here.
Monday, August 1, 2011
MLB.com: A-Rod’s progress to be evaluated on Monday
The three-time American League MVP is expected to be seen by a physician on Monday, evaluating his progress in rehabilitating from a July 11 procedure to repair a meniscus tear in his right knee.
If that goes well, Rodriguez should report to Tampa sometime this week. He has been recovering in Miami, with the initial stages of his rehab overseen by Dr. Lee Kaplan, who performed the surgery.
I was hoping Rodriguez would be back by Friday, but I’d be surprised if he’s actually back before next Tuesday. Either way, it’ll be nice to have him back in the lineup.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
NY Post: A-Rod on schedule; Chavez ready to rejoin Yankees
The Yankees may still need pitching—especially as far as a left-handed reliever is concerned—but they won’t feel utterly compelled to go find another bat before the trading deadline.
Not when they expect to have Alex Rodriguez back by the second week of August following the possible activation of Eric Chavez as soon as today.
Rodriguez, who underwent right knee surgery just over two weeks, is right on schedule for a return that originally was pegged at 4-6 weeks. Rodriguez is showing all signs of making the sooner rather than later return.
“I’ve had some communication on what he does. He sends me usually what he does every day. He’s feeling pretty good. He’s moving along,” manager Joe Girardi said last night. “I can’t tell you when we’ll see him. I don’t have that date. I think our doctors are discussing . . . when we might see him but he’s progressing fine. He’s on schedule.”
General manager Brian Cashman told ESPN Sunday night that he was eying “maybe the second week of August . . . That’s just us being conservative. I think we can push it and get him back sooner, but why? Our offense is strong.”
Eh, I don’t see the sense in trading for another lefty reliever. J.C. Romero should be capable as a second lefty if they really need one, and Boone Logan appears to have found whatever it was that worked for him last year. In theory, a healthy Chavez fixes the need for a bat and a better defensive 3B, but the notion of a healthy Chavez is probably not one we should get used to.
Obviously, the starting rotation is a concern in the postseason, because the fall off after CC Sabathia is pretty steep, but if the Yankees want to upgrade there they have to get someone better than each of Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Ivan Nova, A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes. People that fit that description are out there, but they’re not cheap.
I don’t suppose Andy Pettitte’s getting frisky?
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Which Players Have the Most/Least Hidden Value So Far in 2011?
I was goofing around with some of the stats on Fangraphs and elsewhere and thought it might be interesting to see which players’ values were perhaps obscured if you only looked at their batting lines. Here are the top 20, using Fangraphs’ baserunning stats, linear weights for stolen bases/caught stealing and an average of zone rating, DRS and UZR, which I’m labeling as aRS for average runs saved defensively. I think averaging several good defensive metrics tells us more than any single metric, but we should still be cognizant of the error bars inherent in the defensive numbers and what we think they tell us.
| Player | Team | SB/CS | aRS | BsR | Total |
| Elvis Andrus | Rangers | 4.6 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 19.8 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | 2.6 | 12.8 | 1.8 | 17.2 |
| Peter Bourjos | Angels | 0.9 | 10.2 | 1.8 | 12.9 |
| Ben Zobrist | Rays | 1.4 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 12.6 |
| Carlos Gomez | Brewers | 2.9 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 12.5 |
| Ian Kinsler | Rangers | 3.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 12.1 |
| Cameron Maybin | Padres | 2.8 | 7.4 | 1.8 | 12.0 |
| Howie Kendrick | Angels | 1.2 | 8.3 | 1.9 | 11.4 |
| Michael Bourn | Astros | 5.8 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 10.8 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | Red Sox | 2.4 | 7.8 | 0.4 | 10.6 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | Rockies | 0.6 | 10.4 | -0.5 | 10.5 |
| Alcides Escobar | Royals | 0.8 | 9.0 | 0.6 | 10.4 |
| Dustin Pedroia | Red Sox | 2.6 | 7.3 | 0.3 | 10.2 |
| Matt Wieters | Orioles | 0.2 | 10.0 | -0.2 | 10.0 |
| Ian Desmond | Nationals | 2.9 | 6.6 | 0.5 | 10.0 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | 0.5 | 9.2 | 0.3 | 10.0 |
| Pablo Sandoval | Giants | 0.1 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 9.8 |
| Gerardo Parra | Diamondbacks | 1.3 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 9.7 |
| Shane Victorino | Phillies | 2.1 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 9.6 |
| Brendan Ryan | Mariners | 0.8 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 9.1 |
I was expecting TSBG to top the list, but he’ll have to settle for second for now. I was surprised to see Alex Rodriguez so high up on the list, but he appears to be having a great defensive season, something that’s been magnified when we watch his current stand-in flailing and kicking and throwing the ball to the fans behind the home dugout.
And here are the 20 players whose value is most hurt by these statistics.
| Player | Team | SB/CS | aRS | BsR | Total |
| Mark Reynolds | Orioles | 0.3 | -20.5 | -0.6 | -20.8 |
| Yuniesky Betancourt | Brewers | -0.1 | -15.6 | 2.2 | -13.5 |
| Chris Johnson | Astros | -0.3 | -12.2 | -0.4 | -12.9 |
| Paul Konerko | White Sox | -0.2 | -5.1 | -7.0 | -12.3 |
| Aramis Ramirez | Cubs | -0.4 | -6.6 | -5.0 | -11.9 |
| Ryan Theriot | Cardinals | -0.6 | -10.9 | -0.3 | -11.8 |
| Yadier Molina | Cardinals | -1.7 | -7.0 | -2.4 | -11.1 |
| Wilson Valdez | Phillies | 0.4 | -9.9 | 0.0 | -9.4 |
| Miguel Cabrera | Tigers | -0.2 | -6.8 | -2.1 | -9.0 |
| Chipper Jones | Braves | -0.5 | -5.3 | -3.2 | -9.0 |
| Jhonny Peralta | Tigers | -0.8 | -6.5 | -1.7 | -8.9 |
| Raul Ibanez | Phillies | 0.4 | -9.9 | 0.5 | -8.9 |
| Ryan Howard | Phillies | 0.2 | -5.2 | -3.9 | -8.8 |
| Freddie Freeman | Braves | -0.7 | -6.3 | -1.5 | -8.5 |
| Felix Pie | Orioles | -0.3 | -8.1 | 0.0 | -8.4 |
| Cliff Pennington | Athletics | -1.3 | -5.5 | -1.3 | -8.1 |
| Eric Hosmer | Royals | 0.1 | -8.0 | 0.0 | -7.9 |
| Nate McLouth | Braves | -0.1 | -7.8 | 0.0 | -7.9 |
| Bill Hall | - - - | -0.1 | -7.5 | 0.0 | -7.6 |
| Danny Valencia | Twins | -1.1 | -6.0 | -0.4 | -7.5 |
And here’s the entire list of Yankees.
| Player | Team | SB/CS | aRS | BsR | Total |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | 2.6 | 12.8 | 1.8 | 17.2 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | 0.5 | 9.2 | 0.3 | 10.0 |
| Chris Dickerson | Yankees | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| Eric Chavez | Yankees | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | -0.3 | 4.2 | -3.1 | 0.8 |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Andruw Jones | Yankees | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Freddy Garcia | Yankees | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Bartolo Colon | Yankees | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Gustavo Molina | Yankees | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Brian Gordon | Yankees | 0.0 | -0.3 | 0.0 | -0.3 |
| Greg Golson | Yankees | 0.0 | -0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 |
| Boone Logan | Yankees | 0.0 | -0.6 | 0.0 | -0.6 |
| Jorge Posada | Yankees | -0.8 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -0.9 |
| Ramiro Pena | Yankees | 0.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | 1.3 | -6.2 | 3.9 | -1.0 |
| A.J. Burnett | Yankees | 0.0 | -1.1 | 0.0 | -1.1 |
| Francisco Cervelli | Yankees | 0.9 | -2.0 | 0.0 | -1.1 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.0 | -2.0 | 0.0 | -2.0 |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | 0.9 | -4.3 | 0.9 | -2.5 |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | 0.1 | -2.1 | -0.6 | -2.6 |
| Russell Martin | Yankees | 1.2 | -4.0 | 0.0 | -2.8 |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | 0.6 | -2.8 | -1.4 | -3.5 |
| Eduardo Nunez | Yankees | 0.9 | -5.1 | 0.0 | -4.2 |
Some of these numbers look off to me. Curtis Granderson hasn’t looked like anything worse than average in CF so far, and I’m a bit surprised to see Russell Martin so low on defense although he has allowed 56 SB which ranks fifth in the majors. I’m also fairly certain there’s no way Jorge Posada is any better than -20 in baserunning or that Eduardo Nunez is any better than -10 on defense. FWIW, Baseball Prospectus has Posada at -4.7 runs, which seems more realistic.
What Do The Yankees Really Need At the Trade Deadline?
| Split | Yankees | LgAvg | Diff |
| as C | 36.9 | 38.2 | -1.3 |
| as 1B | 64.0 | 52.1 | 11.9 |
| as 2B | 59.2 | 41.9 | 17.3 |
| as 3B | 51.8 | 38.6 | 13.2 |
| as SS | 44.3 | 43.6 | 0.7 |
| as LF | 47.0 | 37.8 | 9.2 |
| as CF | 73.3 | 45.2 | 28.1 |
| as RF | 49.8 | 47.8 | 2.0 |
| as DH | 35.1 | 45.7 | -10.5 |
This table just compares the linear weights batting runs the Yankees have gotten out of each position compared to league average pro-rated over the same number of outs.
While I don’t think Jorge Posada’s as bad as he’s shown this year, the fact is DH has been the biggest issue on the Yankees and with less than half the season remaining I don’t think we can expect that to change much unless the personnel changes. I don’t know if the Yankees will do anything given the politics of the situation, but I’d hope they’re at least considering it. Carlos Beltran seems like the obvious fit there, but the price may be steep given the number of suitors.
The only other area that’s been below average is catcher, thanks to Russell Martin’s free fall into horrendousness. Martin hit .333/.410/.722 over his first 16 games and 61 PA, and has hit .188/.297/.279 over his last 229. The scary thing about that is that Martin’s entire value on the season was concentrated in those first 61 PA. He’s been worth somewhere in the area of three runs more than an average catcher on offense, but it breaks down as 11 runs better over the first 61 PA and eight runs worse over the last 229.
I don’t know if Jesus Montero would be a net improvement because he really hasn’t hit all that well at AAA and his defense is very suspect, but I’d imagine that should the trade deadline pass without Montero moving he’ll probably be called up to see some time behind Martin and/or some DH time.
They could also obviously use a starting pitcher better than anyone they currently have aside from CC Sabathia, but those guys don’t grow on trees. We keep hearing about Ubaldo Jimenez but I am guessing he ends up staying in Colorado. They don’t need to trade him, and will probably only do so if they receive an offer they can’t refuse.
Although we keep seeing rumors about them looking for bullpen help, I think that’s dumb. The Yankee pen has the second best ERA and FIP in the AL, behind only Oakland who play in a pitchers’ park instead of a disgraceful bandbox. With the potential return of Rafael Soriano and with J.C. Romero around if they need another lefty, I don’t see the need there. Maybe instead of trading some of their prospects for a relief arm they could try them out in the pen themselves. Seems to have worked out well with Hector Noesi.
This team will look better when Alex Rodriguez comes back, so hopefully they can just stay close until then.
Sunday, July 10, 2011
MLB.com: Knee surgery to shelve A-Rod at least a month
Dr. Lee Kaplan will perform the surgery at the University of Miami (Fla.), and the Yankees are not sure whether the four-to-six-week timetable is for Rodriguez’s return to the club, or when he could resume baseball activities and possibly begin a rehab stint in the Minors.
Obviously not good news, but it certainly seems that the knee injury has affected Rodriguez’s power, so I’d rather see him back at relatively full strength down the stretch than trying to play through it. If he did try to play, he’d almost certainly need to be rested frequently anyway.
So the question is how much it hurts the Yankees. The current depth chart is A-Rod at 3B, Jeter at SS and Nunez as backup IF. So now you’re looking at Nunez at 3B, Jeter at SS, and Pena as backup IF. The only other player on the active 40 man roster listed as an infielder is Brandon Laird,but he’s more a 3B in theory than in actuality, and it’s tough to see someone who’s OBP’ing .297 in AAA being of much use in the majors.
Four to six weeks is somewhat vague, but figure something like 120 PA of A-Rod, 120 PA of Jeter, and 40 PA of Nunez is now something like 120 PA of Nunez, 120 PA of Jeter, and 40 PA of Pena. Using their projections updated through today looks like this:
| PA | avg/obp/slg | wOBA | br | |
| A-Rod | 120 | .283/.367/.504 | .376 | 19 |
| Jeter | 120 | .275/.342/.373 | .321 | 13 |
| Nunez | 40 | .270/.306/.382 | .301 | 4 |
| Pena | 0 | .233/.278/.317 | .265 | 0 |
| Total | 280 | .341 | 36 | |
| PA | avg/obp/slg | wOBA | br | |
| A-Rod | 0 | .283/.367/.504 | .376 | 0 |
| Jeter | 120 | .275/.342/.373 | .321 | 13 |
| Nunez | 120 | .270/.306/.382 | .301 | 12 |
| Pena | 40 | .233/.278/.317 | .265 | 3 |
| Total | 280 | .304 | 29 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
br: Linear weights batting runs
So the net here is a loss of about seven runs on offense. It’s also worth mentioning that Rodriguez is having a great defensive season, so I’d expect a bit of a fall off there as well. So figure that having Rodriguez out for 120 PA is going to cost the Yankees about a win on paper. We have no idea how it will actually play out of course.
Not great news, but not dire either.
Saturday, July 9, 2011
NY Times: A-Rod Facing Knee Surgery
Manager Joe Girardi characterized the tear as “slight,” and said Rodriguez has two options. He can play through the discomfort and have surgery after the season, or have surgery now and miss “around a month.” In any case, Rodriguez will not play in the final two games of this weekend’s series against Tampa Bay.
If the knee is the reason for his loss of power, I’d rather see him get the surgery now and deal with the month that he’s out than have a diminished Rodriguez for the rest of the year.
Saturday, July 2, 2011
Yankees.com: Colon, Granderson propel Yanks past Mets
Sidelined since June 11 with a left hamstring strain, Colon proved that the layoff didn’t affect him much. The right-hander scattered five hits in the winning effort, walking none and striking out six.
On their way to their seventh straight win and victory No. 17 in 21 games, the Yankees backed Colon with a four-run sixth inning off Dillon Gee, who struggled his third time through the batting order.
Curtis Granderson slugged his 22nd homer, a solo shot into the Mets’ bullpen in right-center field, and Robinson Cano added a two-run triple into the right field corner that brought home Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez.
Colon was great, basically pitching the way he did before his DL stint. Eduardo Nunez went 3 for 4, and his only out was a liner up the middle that was snared by Justin Turner that could easily have been a fourth hit. He’s now hitting .278/.320/.435 but is probably heading to the bench on Monday. I don’t know if Nunez is as good offensively as he’s shown himself to be of late, but he’s certainly earned the right to get more PT than he’d gotten prior to Derek Jeter’s injury.
Winning is fun, now we can go enjoy the fireworks (where applicable).
TGS NY: Brian Cashman: Robinson Cano is best
Told that Reyes’ presence might represent the first time since interleague play began in 1997 that a Mets star trumped every big name on the New York Yankees roster, Cashman said, “I don’t know if he’s the best player. He’s the most electric and is having the best year, but you’ve got to look at consistency.
“Robinson Cano is the best player on the field.”
As Alex Rodriguez all but tripped over himself in praise of the Mets’ shortstop, whom A-Rod called “the world’s greatest player,” Cashman went with Cano’s recent career over Reyes’.
For the hell of it I ran each guy through CAIRO up through yesterday to see how they’d project going forward:
| Player | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | HBP | SO | GDP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAA | BRAR |
| Cano | 613 | 171 | 39 | 3 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 37 | 8 | 72 | 18 | .303 | .352 | .511 | .370 | 93 | 98 | 20 | 41 |
| Reyes | 498 | 135 | 25 | 12 | 7 | 32 | 9 | 38 | 1 | 50 | 6 | .297 | .350 | .453 | .349 | 71 | 92 | 17 | 35 |
| Rodriguez | 535 | 132 | 26 | 1 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 60 | 7 | 97 | 12 | .286 | .372 | .521 | .383 | 87 | 105 | 23 | 41 |
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAA: BR above an average hitter (not position or replacement-level adjusted)
BRAR: BR above a replacement level hitter at the same position
Rodriguez still looks like the best pure hitter of the three. Position adjustments change things slighly, and if you were to give each player 650 PA, Rodriguez would have 50 BRAR, Reyes 46, and Cano 43. But I do think the ability to stay on the field is part of a player’s value, and if you do give Cano for credit for that, then he probably is the best position player in this series right now. Defense may change that, but I don’t think we can determine that with any accuracy so I’m just ignoring it.
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Yankees.com: With A-Rod’s help, CC first to 10 wins
NEW YORK—Alex Rodriguez began the week six days ago in a cramped hallway outside the visitors’ clubhouse at Wrigley Field, denying a report that he had a left shoulder strain and insisting that part of his body felt like any other through the course of a 162-game season.
On Saturday, Rodriguez continued to verify the strength of that shoulder with another stellar performance, recording a pair of hits and driving in three runs in the Yankees’ 8-3 win over the Rockies.
Rodriguez has been red-hot and is now up to .300/.379/.517. And don’t look now, but with a three for four day Jorge Posada’s up to .232/.323/.395. Not bad for a guy that was hitting .169/.285/.338 just 21 days ago.
CC looked very strong today. Aside from the juiced gun in Baltimore he looked to be throwing harder than he had at any point this season. As far as the 10 win thing, CC seemed unimpressed about it when asked about it, as well he should have been. Pitcher wins don’t tell us anything.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Trying to put 2011 Offense in Context
One of the things that’s made 2011 seem somewhat frustrating for me to watch at times this year is what appears to be poor performances by many of the key Yankee offensive players. Obviously there’s no way to spin Nick Swisher’s season as anything but awful, and Jorge Posada’s season long performance is lousy for a DH although there are signs of life lately.
The thing that I haven’t really gotten a good handle on is how the run environment of the 2011 AL has changed compared to the recent past and what that means as far as how we should look at player and team performance to this point.
Here are the AL league averages from 2009-2010 pro-rated to 2520 PA to match 2011.
| Year | Tm | R/G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BR | GDP | HBP | BABIP |
| 2009 | LgAvg | 4.82 | 2520 | 2245 | 315 | 599 | 119 | 11 | 74 | 301 | 44 | 16 | 222 | 441 | .267 | .336 | .428 | .764 | 312 | 52 | 21 | .300 |
| 2010 | LgAvg | 4.45 | 2520 | 2251 | 293 | 585 | 117 | 11 | 64 | 279 | 44 | 16 | 214 | 442 | .260 | .327 | .407 | .734 | 291 | 52 | 21 | .295 |
| 2011 | LgAvg | 4.33 | 2520 | 2251 | 285 | 571 | 115 | 12 | 61 | 271 | 46 | 19 | 213 | 437 | .254 | .322 | .397 | .719 | 279 | 52 | 22 | .288 |
The drop between 2009 and 2010 was bigger than the drop from 2010 to 2011 but it doesn’t feel like that to me. It looks like the drop from 2009 to 2011 can be attributed in equal parts to HRs and a drop in BABIP. On a league-wide level, a drop in BABIP is almost certainly more meaningful than a similar drop would be for an individual player or team. It could be due to changes in environment, or due to teams seeking new ways to improve their defense, or many other reasons. What I don’t know is if things will stay at this level through year-end.
I thought that adjusting the player’s lines to account for the change between 2009-2011 might give us get a better idea of how they’ve performed relative to their environment on a scale that matches more typical expectations. So I just multiplied all the component stats by their ratio of an average for 2009-10 compared to 2011.
| Player | 2011 | a2011 |
| Russell Martin | .232/.338/.429 | .241/.348/.450 |
| Mark Teixeira# | .250/.368/.534 | .259/.377/.562 |
| Robinson Cano* | .285/.327/.500 | .295/.337/.525 |
| Derek Jeter | .260/.324/.324 | .269/.334/.341 |
| Alex Rodriguez | .284/.362/.511 | .294/.372/.537 |
| Brett Gardner* | .272/.351/.418 | .282/.361/.440 |
| Curtis Granderson* | .278/.351/.605 | .288/.362/.636 |
| Nick Swisher# | .221/.344/.343 | .229/.354/.361 |
| Jorge Posada# | .226/.321/.375 | .234/.331/.394 |
| Andruw Jones | .215/.282/.431 | .223/.291/.453 |
| Eduardo Nunez | .214/.254/.339 | .222/.262/.357 |
| Francisco Cervelli | .191/.250/.298 | .198/.256/.313 |
| Eric Chavez* | .303/.410/.424 | .314/.423/.446 |
| Chris Dickerson* | .333/.412/.467 | .345/.420/.490 |
| Gustavo Molina | .167/.167/.333 | .173/.173/.350 |
| Team Totals | .256/.339/.446 | .265/.349/.469 |
Suddenly some of those lines look a bit better.
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Just How Awful Have The Yankees Been Against Boston?
The Yankees dropped their seventh game in eight tries against the Red Sox last night in yet another inspired effort. It’s been frustrating to see the way the Yankees have rolled over for the Red Sox this year. What they’ve done is spotted Boston a six game advantage in the standings.
We know the won/loss record is bad. It’s even worse when you realize they’ve played three games in Boston and five(soon to be six) in New York and are on the verge of being swept at home twice. After today the Yankees will only play Boston three more times at home and they still have to play them six times in Fenway, which rarely goes well.
For a team to go 1-7 against another team while playing five of those eight games at home, they’d have to be around a 49 win team playing against a 113 win team. At this point I don’t doubt the Red Sox are better than the Yankees, but I’m not sure that they’re 65 wins better.
So let’s assign the blame.
| Player | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | HBP | K | SB | CS | GDP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAA |
| Russell Martin | 27 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .227 | .370 | .636 | 5 | 2 |
| Robinson Cano | 32 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .286 | .375 | .500 | 5 | 2 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.333 | 2 | 2 |
| Eric Chavez | 8 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .750 | 2 | 1 |
| Curtis Granderson | 36 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .219 | .306 | .500 | 5 | 1 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 32 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .207 | .281 | .448 | 4 | 0 |
| Jorge Posada | 16 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .286 | .375 | .286 | 2 | 0 |
| Andruw Jones | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .182 | .182 | .455 | 1 | 0 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .286 | .167 | 0 | 0 |
| Brett Gardner | 31 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .192 | .323 | .308 | 3 | -1 |
| Nick Swisher | 32 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .207 | .281 | .310 | 3 | -1 |
| Derek Jeter | 39 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .194 | .256 | .222 | 1 | -3 |
| Mark Teixeira | 34 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .138 | .235 | .138 | 1 | -3 |
| Total | 309 | 34 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 7 | 71 | 5 | 2 | 4 | .227 | .314 | .388 | 34 | 0 |
| AL Avg | 309 | 35 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 6 | .253 | .321 | .396 | 34 | 0 |
BR are linear weights batting runs. BRAA are BR above an average AL hitter, not adjusted for position.
Because the offense in MLB is down significantly this year, while that line looks awful relative to our normal context, in the context of today’s AL it’s not that bad. AL average line right now is .253/.321/.396. We also don’t know if that performance is good or bad in the context of the “strength” of the Yankees and the strength of the Red Sox. It’s really only useful in terms of comparing how the players stack up against each other. In this case you can see the Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira are the chief problems on offense, but there’s a whole lot of stinking going on there.
The team’s actual runs scored are a direct match for their batting runs, which indicates they’ve scored as many runs as they should have given their component stats and have not been unlucky or lucky in terms of how their performance has translated to runs on the scoreboard.
There’s more blame to dish out!
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | K | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAA |
| Freddy Garcia | 8.0 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 11.25 | 10.13 | 8.87 | -6.2 |
| A.J. Burnett | 5.7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12.71 | 11.12 | 6.22 | -5.3 |
| Phil Hughes | 2.0 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | 27.00 | 12.37 | -5.0 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 3.7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12.27 | 12.27 | 9.42 | -3.3 |
| Lance Pendleton | 1.7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16.20 | 16.20 | 19.67 | -2.2 |
| Ivan Nova | 4.3 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8.31 | 8.31 | 4.25 | -1.9 |
| CC Sabathia | 12.3 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 5.11 | 5.11 | 4.49 | -1.1 |
| Bartolo Colon | 10.3 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 4.35 | 2.61 | 3.55 | -0.1 |
| Rafael Soriano | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.87 | 0.5 |
| Mariano Rivera | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.87 | 0.5 |
| Hector Noesi | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.20 | 0.9 |
| David Robertson | 4.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2.25 | 0.00 | 3.12 | 0.9 |
| Boone Logan | 4.7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 3.08 | 1.2 |
| Luis Ayala | 5.3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 2.5 |
| Total | 70.0 | 80 | 52 | 47 | 12 | 42 | 4 | 52 | 6.69 | 6.04 | 5.58 | -18.7 |
| AL Avg | 70 | 67 | 33 | 30 | 7 | 25 | 3 | 52 | 4.28 | 3.91 | 3.91 | 0.0 |
RSAA are runs saved compared to an average pitcher using RA vs. league average RA. FIP is Fielding-independent pitching which focuses on a pitcher’s HR, BB/HBP and Ks against. Again, neither of these account for the context of the opponent so it’s more for comparison among Yankees.
I’m thinking the Yankees may want to skip Freddy Garcia’s next turn against Boston. The Yankees have allowed 52 total runs against Boston, and according to linear weights they should have allowed 49, so just like on offense there’s no evidence of bad luck here. They’ve pitched as poorly as the basic stats say they did. The Yankees have a team BABIP against of .281 this season against everyone but Boston. Against Boston it’s .311. Whether that’s on the pitchers or the defense or some combination of both, I don’t know.
It’s sad, but it’s gotten to the point where I am not even bothering to watch these games. When you finish dinner and turn on the game and see your team is already down 3-0 before they’ve even gotten an out, why watch?
I’d like to say I have a good feeling about CC Sabathia going today, but unfortunately with the Yankee offense backing him you get the feeling that anything less than perfection won’t be good enough.
Again, I’ll say I don’t think the Red Sox are 65 wins better than the Yankees. 60, maybe.
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
Yankees.com: Granderson leads way in Yankees’ barrage
OAKLAND—Curtis Granderson homered and drove in four runs, Alex Rodriguez had three hits to knock in another three, and the Yankees rolled to a 10-3 pounding of the Athletics on Tuesday.
New York’s third consecutive victory went into the books for Freddy Garcia, who held the Athletics to three runs over seven innings, posting a win for the second straight start.
Gramderson continued to put his past futility vs. LHP in the rear-view mirror. Here are Granderson’s career splits vs. LHP, pre and post Kevin Long’s reworking of his swing in August of last year.
| Dates | Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR/650 | BB/PA | K/PA |
| 9/13/04 - 8/11/10 | vs LHP | 795 | 151 | 25 | 7 | 17 | 50 | 197 | .209 | .260 | .334 | .261 | 50 | .063 | .248 |
| 8/12/10 - 5/31/11 | vs LHP | 133 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 29 | .305 | .368 | .669 | .427 | 129 | .090 | .218 |
It’s only 133 PA, but it’s been one hell of 133 PA.
Freddy Garcia pitched another quality start, although his peripherals are still a bit worse than his actual performance so far. His BABIP against is probably unsustainably low, and he’s also got a very high strand rate of runners. If he regresses towards his FIP/xFIP he’ll still be pretty good though.
Tomorrow’s game is a must-win with a sweep by Anaheim looming to close out the road trip, so let’s hope A.J. Burnett can pitch a bit better than he did against Seattle last time out.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Alex Rodriguez and Some Selective Endpoint Stuff
In a previous thread, sam asked:
SG, would it be possible to see whether A-Rod, after he has come back from his “rest,” is making more contact, taking fewer walks, and hitting more groundballs? That is what it seems like to me. This was something I remember you looked at last year.
Yes, it’s possible. I’m assuming by rest sam’s referring to the April 30th day off.
| Dates | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | SB | CS | HBP | GDP | avg | obp | slg | woba | isoD | isoP |
| 3/31-4/29 | 84 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | .290 | .417 | .609 | .433 | .127 | .319 |
| 5/1-5/25 | 103 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .286 | .320 | .429 | .327 | .035 | .143 |
| Dates | br | br/650 | babip | FB | GB | LD | IFH | fb% | gb% | ld% | bb/pa | k/pa |
| 3/31-4/29 | 16 | 127 | .288 | 27 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 45.8% | 42.4% | 11.9% | 16.7% | 14.3% |
| 5/1-5/25 | 13 | 80 | .348 | 27 | 35 | 11 | 7 | 37.0% | 47.9% | 15.1% | 3.9% | 24.3% |
FB: fly balls
GB: ground balls
LD: line drives
IFH: infield hits
woba: weighted on-base average
isoD: Isolated plate discipline (obp - avg)
isoP: Isolated power (slg - avg)
br: linear weights batting runs
br/650: br pro-rated to 650 PA
babip: batting average on balls in play
Sample size caveats apply as always. But yes, he’s walking less and hitting more grounders. Unfortunately if it’s due to a change in approach that eschews power for contact it’s failing miserably because his strikeout rate has increased by close to 60%.
I think I liked April-Rod more than May-Rod, and I would like him back.
Monday, May 23, 2011
Where Are The Yankees’ Missing Hits?
It’s not very likely that scoring eight runs without the benefit of a home run in last night’s seventh inning is going to quell the clowns who think the Yankees are eschewing hits for home runs and that they need to stop hitting the ball over the fence and instead hit more bleeders and bloops. They’ll cite a team batting average that ranks 11th in MLB while ignoring the fact that the Yankees have the second highest team wOBA in baseball(behind St. Louis) and the second-highest BB rate in MLB (tied with the Mets) despite only ranking 15th in strikeout rate. If they were really swinging for the fences on every pitch in a concerted effort to hit more HRs shouldn’t they be striking out more than that? Aren’t HRs a function of hitting the ball hard, and isn’t that what hitters should be doing?
Anyway, the primary culprit in the Yankees’ seeming inability to only score via the home run is their team’s batting average. Their team batting average on balls in play(BABIP) is at .274, which ranks among the worst in MLB (tied for third-worst with the Washington Nationals and worse than the Mariners). BABIP ignores home runs, so if you instead look at on-contact average they move up to 10th in MLB.
If you compare the team’s current cumulative batting line to their projections using the actual distribution of playing time so far, you can see what’s different from expectations.
| Type | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | GDP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR |
| YTD | 1727 | 1518 | 235 | 385 | 62 | 10 | 71 | 229 | 26 | 13 | 173 | 317 | 21 | 48 | .254 | .335 | .448 | .341 | 223 |
| Proj | 1727 | 1511 | 225 | 404 | 77 | 8 | 58 | 216 | 32 | 10 | 182 | 303 | 17 | 35 | .267 | .349 | .444 | .347 | 232 |
| Diff | 0 | 7 | 10 | -19 | -15 | 2 | 13 | 13 | -6 | 3 | -9 | 14 | 4 | 13 | -9 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: linear weights batting runs
As a team, the Yankees have 19 fewer hits than projected, mostly doubles. They’ve hit 13 more home runs than expected, and overall they’re actually about nine runs below their projections. The killer number here that has been driving me nuts this year are the double plays. The Yankees are tied for second in MLB at 48, with the Cardinals the runaway leader with 58. That’s partially a function of getting people on base. If you look at it in terms of percentage of times they’ve hit into a double play in double play situations they’re at 14.4% which only ranks 7th in MLB. That still doesn’t make it any less annoying.
So who are the culprits in the Yankees’ lower than expected batting average. You probably already have a good idea, but here you go.
| Player | Team | Lg | Pos | Type | H | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR |
| Jorge Posada | Yankees | AL | DH | Diff | -9 | -7 | -3 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | AL | RF | Diff | -8 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -6 |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | AL | 1B | Diff | -6 | -5 | -3 | 0 | 2 |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | AL | 2B | Diff | -5 | -4 | -3 | 0 | 2 |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | AL | SS | Diff | -2 | 3 | -4 | 0 | -2 |
| Francisco Cervelli | Yankees | AL | C | Diff | -2 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andruw Jones | Yankees | AL | LF | Diff | -1 | 0.8 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gustavo Molina | Yankees | AL | C | Diff | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eduardo Nunez | Yankees | AL | SS | Diff | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Russell Martin | Yankees | AL | C | Diff | 2 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Chris Dickerson | Yankees | AL | DH | Diff | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Chavez | Yankees | AL | 3B | Diff | 2 | 1.7 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | AL | LF | Diff | 2 | 0.3 | -1 | 1 | 1 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | AL | CF | Diff | 2 | -4 | -3 | 1 | 8 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | AL | 3B | Diff | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Although readers of this blog for the most part understand that batting average isn’t very informative, when five of the nine regulars are lower than expected in hits per AB it contributes to our perception that the team is underperforming.
For all the stories regarding Jorge Posada, Nick Swisher is the Yankee who so far has been the worst performer relative to his projection once you account for playing time.
| Player | BR |
| Curtis Granderson | 6.7 |
| Russell Martin | 6.2 |
| Eric Chavez | 1.9 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 1.4 |
| Chris Dickerson | 1.4 |
| Gustavo Molina | -0.2 |
| Francisco Cervelli | -0.4 |
| Alex Rodriguez | -0.8 |
| Mark Teixeira | -0.8 |
| Robinson Cano | -1.2 |
| Brett Gardner | -1.6 |
| Andruw Jones | -2.5 |
| Jorge Posada | -5.0 |
| Derek Jeter | -6.0 |
| Nick Swisher | -8.7 |
Even Jeter’s been worse than Posada by this measure, primarily since he’s getting the most PAs on the team. I think it’s time to put Gardner at the top against righties, although if all that does is move Jeter to second it’s pointless.
I think Swisher is the biggest issue the Yankees have right now. If Posada doesn’t start showing signs of life, they have internal options for DH. As disappointing as Jeter’s been this year, he’s the Yankees’ best option at shortstop right now. With Swisher, we know he’s got the ability to be a key contributor to the team, but we also have data in the not so distant past that he may just have a horrible season. I like Chris Dickerson as a fourth OF, but I don’t think I’d want to see him out there every day. If Andruw Jones was playing a bit better a Jones/Dickerson platoon might work, but I doubt they sit Swisher long-term. So let’s hope he gets better.
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Yankees.com: Relentless in seventh, Yanks drop Mets
NEW YORK—Stepping in for a pivotal at-bat with the bases loaded, Alex Rodriguez mustered only a weak bouncer on the grass toward third base, and it was all the Yankees needed.
They’d get much, much more. A-Rod’s infield hit knocked in the go-ahead run and the wheels came off for the Mets in an eight-run seventh inning, as the Yankees came from behind to post a 9-3 win in the rubber game of the Subway Series.
Weak bouncers on the grass towards third base > home runs.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Yankees.com: Pigs Fly
ST. PETERSBURG—Alex Rodriguez homered twice and David Robertson pinned the bases loaded in a big spot, as the Yankees finally exhaled with a 6-2 victory over the Rays on Tuesday, snapping a six-game losing streak.
Rodriguez’s second home run off James Shields was a sixth-inning laser that cleared the center-field fence, providing a slim lead, but there could be no guarantees during a stretch when nothing seems to have gone right.
Figures Rodriguez would pick a blowout to finally get a couple of hits. Jorge Posada also got a couple of hits and has moved his average up to .179. Yay! In less good news, Derek Jeter’s OBP is down to .309.
I thought Girardi walking Joyce to bring in Robertson with the bases loaded was dumb, but it worked out this time. Unfortunately that means positive reinforcement for more stupidity down the road when it won’t work. I don’t know if Girardi’s love of the sac bunt is more damaging than his love of the intentional walk, but at some point both are going to come back and bite the Yankees in the posterior.
In even better news than an exceedingly rare but ultimately meaningless Yankee victory, Rafael Soriano is no longer using up a roster spot while providing no value or negative value.
The Yankees put reliever Rafael Soriano on the disabled list Tuesday, but, befitting their fortunes recently, they also dealt with a matter unrelated to his ailing right elbow.
Soriano, who had pitched once in the Yankees’ last seven games, will miss at least another two weeks after magnetic resonance imaging revealed inflammation in his elbow. But also problematic were comments he made after the Yankees’ loss to the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday, their sixth in a row.
Soriano heaped blame on the offense, not the bullpen, for the Yankees’ skid.
I find it hard to believe that the fact that the Yankees won for the first time in a week on the day they DL’ed Soriano is a coincidence.
Monday, May 16, 2011
A-Rod’s Funk
Alex Rodriguez’s 2011 line is a disappointing but passable .250/.345/.460. However, that’s really propped up by his first 43 PA of the season.
| PA | H | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | GDP | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BB/PA | K/PA | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | .412 | .512 | .882 | 1.394 | 16.3% | 9.3% | .370 |
| 102 | 17 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 22 | 1 | 4 | .189 | .275 | .300 | .575 | 9.8% | 21.6% | .224 |
| 145 | 31 | 17 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 17 | 26 | 2 | 6 | .250 | .345 | .460 | .805 | 11.7% | 17.9% | .266 |
What I don’t know is if this is the worst 100 PA stretch of his career. I can’t imagine a worse one, but I’ll look into it.
Thursday, May 12, 2011
NJ.com: Fans question bunting in Yankees’ 4-3 loss to Royals
In the eighth inning and the game tied 2-2, Derek Jeter popped up a bunt with Brett Gardner on first base. And then in the 10th, down 3-2, Gardner bunted Russell Martin over to second despite a three-ball count with no outs. Jeter’s bunt didn’t work out, but Gardner’s did as the Yankees tied the game later in the inning.
I realize part of the calculus in bunting with Gardner is that he has a better than average chance to reach safely, but I still can’t justify Girardi’s constant willingness to give away outs. It’s become more irritating than his love of the intentional walk and I see no evidence it will change.
Bunting with Gardner ahead 3-0 was so exceedingly stupid that it defies words. You had three pitches to see if the pitcher would advance the runner for you without costing yourself an out, and instead you willingly gave them a free out. Yeah, they tied the game, but who’s to say they don’t score more runs if Gardner reached safely.
Bunting with Jeter was not as dumb, but still dumb. Moving a runner into scoring position in front of hitters who hit a lot of singles and don’t walk much or hit for power makes sense. Moving a runner into scoring position in front of hitters who walk a lot and hit for power has less impact. What category do Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixiera and Alex Rodriguez fall into?
I think I’m ready for a new manager.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Yankees.com: A-Rod, timely relief buoy Yankees
NEW YORK—Alex Rodriguez slashed a two-run single that put the Yankees ahead and Dave Robertson escaped from a key seventh-inning jam, securing a 3-1 victory over the Royals on Tuesday.
Rodriguez has been fiddling with a mechanical adjustment to his leg kick, hoping to escape a power drought that has followed the slugger for weeks, and he now has even more reason to be encouraged by the results.
The Yankees took the lead in the fifth inning, as Kansas City starter Kyle Davies walked Brett Gardner and allowed a one-out Derek Jeter single before hitting Mark Teixeira in the left thigh with a two-out pitch.
Jeter went 2 for 4 and both hits were hit solidly up the middle. He’s now hitting .283/.336/.354 in a league where the average SS has hit .254/.310/.352 (entering tonight). I don’t know if he’s back or not, but I am less pessimistic than I was a week ago.
Freddy Garcia had another solid outing after being hit a bit harder in his last two starts, although he allowed the first two runners to reach in the seventh, which brought Robertson into the game. Robertson made things interesting by loading the bases with one out, but he came back to fan the last two hitters of the inning. Joba Chamberlain pitched what might have been his best inning of 2011, and Mo closed it out with a nice stab on a shot up the middle that he was able to turn into a double play.
Hopefully they can keep it going tomorrow.
Monday, May 9, 2011
Salvaging The Road Trip From Hell
On May 5, the Yankees were 16-9 and in sole possession of first place in the AL East. They led Tampa Bay and Baltimore by four in the loss column and Toronto and Boston by six.
The lost three of four to Detroit in a series where they probably should have split but salvaged a bit by taking two of three in Texas. By log5 they should have gone 3.5-3.5, so by going 3-4 they ended up only losing about one-half game on expectations. Only Tampa Bay picked up any ground on them in the loss column. So all in all, despite what seemed to be a disaster in the making, the Yankees aren’t really much worse off than they were before the road trip.
IMO, the real story of the road trip is the possibility that Derek Jeter may still be a useful player on offense.
| Dates | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | GDP | avg | obp | slg | woba | isoD | isoP |
| 3/31 - 4/10 | 105 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 3 | .242 | .314 | .263 | .272 | .072 | .021 |
| 4/11 - 5/2 | 29 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | .393 | .414 | .643 | .449 | .021 | .250 |
| Dates | br | br/650 | babip | FB | GB | LD | IFH | fb% | gb% | ld% | bb/pa | k/pa |
| 3/31 - 4/10 | 7 | 45 | .271 | 15 | 62 | 8 | 7 | 17.6% | 72.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.5% |
| 4/11 - 5/2 | 6 | 132 | .429 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 17.4% | 52.2% | 30.4% | 3.4% | 17.2% |
FB: fly balls
GB: ground balls
LD: line drives
IFH: infield hits
woba: weighted on-base average
isoD: Isolated plate discipline (obp - avg)
isoP: Isolated power (slg - avg)
br: linear weights batting runs
br/650: br pro-rated to 650 PA
babip: batting average on balls in play
Jeter appeared to be hitting the ball harder over this road trip, and that’s borne out in his LD% and isoP. Of course, you never want to make too much of 29 PA, but I am encouraged. Not because of the results of 29 good PA, but because Jeter demonstrated something I really didn’t think he was physically capable of doing any more.
Time will tell if yesterday’s game was a blip like June 12, 2010 or the announcement of his return to offensive prominence.
It was a good thing Jeter hit over the road trip, because some of his teammates didn’t.
| Player | PA | wOBA |
| Eric Chavez | 2 | .780 |
| Curtis Granderson | 31 | .467 |
| Derek Jeter | 29 | .450 |
| Mark Teixeira | 30 | .400 |
| Brett Gardner | 25 | .367 |
| Nick Swisher | 24 | .358 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 8 | .356 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 9 | .338 |
| Jorge Posada | 28 | .276 |
| Russell Martin | 21 | .273 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 28 | .245 |
| Robinson Cano | 25 | .199 |
| Andruw Jones | 10 | .162 |
I’m fairly certain Martin, Cano and Rodriguez will hit going forward, and if Andruw Jones doesn’t he won’t play. Jorge Posada may just be in an unlucky stretch and should be hitting better than he has so far, but if he isn’t, at some point the Yankees really need to start getting more production out of DH.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Yankees.com: Yankees’ bats dormant in defeat
DETROIT—The Yankees were annoyed after missing several run-scoring opportunities in Tuesday’s loss to the Tigers. But there would be no such feelings after Wednesday’s game.
Max Scherzer didn’t give them many to begin with.
The Tigers right-hander hurled eight dominant innings, limiting the Yankees to just four hits while handing them a 4-0 loss at Comerica Park.
With that, New York dropped back-to-back games for just the second time this season and moved to 5-5 on the road.
Since May 15:
Derek Jeter: .262/.310/.277
Alex Rodriguez: .142/.232/245
Is there a better way to get out of a bad stretch of games than playing the Yankees? The Red Sox, the White Sox and the Tigers would probably say no.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Yankees.com: Rafael Soriano Stinks
Homers by Robinson Cano and Brett Gardner supported Ivan Nova, who worked 6 1/3 innings and handed a lead to his bullpen, but Rafael Soriano surrendered two late runs.
Soriano is now directly responsible for two of the team’s eight losses so far this year. Good thing he’s signed for the bargain price of $12M per year.
The Yankees had a chance to win it in the ninth despite Soriano, but after a leadoff infield single by Derek Jeter, Joe Girardi thought it would be smart to give away one of the last three outs the team had by bunting with his team leader in HRs. I don’t like bunting in general, but it’s especially foolish when you’re doing it in front of power hitters who walk a fair amount, because the difference in run expectancy for a runner on first vs. a runner on second in front of those types of hitters isn’t really worth the value of the out.
So after Girardi stupidly had Curtis Granderson bunt Jeter to second, Mark Teixeira walked, and Alex Rodriguez lined a pitch to the wall in RF where Brent Lillibridge made a nice catch to preserve the lead. Robinson Cano followed up with a line drive towards the RF corner and Lillibridge made a game-ending diving catch. Either one of those plays would have probably won the game for the Yankees if they weren’t made, but they were.
It’s pretty frustrating seeing the Yankees wasting good starting pitching. And I’m really starting to find Girardi’s decision-making annoying.
A-Rod’s Zones
| Up | Middle | Down | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-2010 | .415 | .424 | .348 |
| 2011 | .819 | .460 | .312 |
All heatmaps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Sunday, April 24, 2011
NY Post: How Jeter put A-Rod in the Yankees’ ‘snubhouse’
And when fans and rival players criticized A-Rod, Jeter deferred instead of defending his teammate.
General Manager Brian Cashman noticed this and asked Jeter to “fake it” with A-Rod.
“You’ve got to lead them all, the ones you like and the ones you don’t,” he told him. He asked him to appeal to Yankee fans on A-Rod’s behalf.
“I can’t tell the fans what to do,” Jeter countered.
A-Rod’s obsession with Jeter continued, the book says. He constantly asked players and team officials about Jeter—down to which charity he was currently supporting.
It all came to a head during a Yankee loss in August 2006 to Baltimore.
An easy pop-up hung in the air between A-Rod and Jeter. Both players closed in and Jeter bumped into A-Rod, knocking the ball out of his glove. Jeter shot A-Rod a withering look.
The gesture did not go unnoticed. Cashman pulled Jeter aside and ordered him to knock it off.
“Listen, this has to stop,” Cashman said. “Everybody in the press box, every team official, everyone watching, they saw you look at the ball on the ground and look at him with disgust like you were saying, ‘That’s your mess, you clean it up.’ “
A-Rod also felt betrayed by manager Joe Torre, who players said added fuel to the fiery feud.
“He would never call Jeter on anything, but he’d have no problem doing it to Alex,” one player told the author.
You can’t put a price on leadership and intangibles like that, can you?
To be honest, if I was Jeter, I’d probably have resented Rodriguez for his comments too. Actually, if I was Jeter I’d be out banging supermodels instead of blogging. But after that, I’d have resented Rodriguez. I have no idea if any of this ended up hurting the team on the field, but after 2009 I’m pretty sure it’s no longer an issue.
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Yankees.com: Yanks’ five homers plenty for CC’s first win
Alex Rodriguez hit a grand slam and drove in six runs. Russell Martin hit two homers and finished with four RBIs, and Jorge Posada added a two-run shot. All of that helped CC Sabathia (1-1) get his first victory this season.
Nothing like returning to DNYS to help boost those HR totals. Even TSBG joined in the fun.
What a disgrace of a ballpark.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
2011 Yankees projected vs actual through April 19
As a card-carrying member of the baseball stat nerd cult, I understand that we shouldn’t read too much into the results of early-season performance. We should generally trust that a player’s performance will more often than not regress towards their expected performance as the season moves on.
That doesn’t mean the data we have so far this season is useless in terms of telling us what’s happened. It just means we shouldn’t expect it to tell us all that much about what will happen.
Here’s a quick comparison of the differences between the Yankees’ projections and actual performance so far.
| player | team | pa | ytd_woba | proj_woba | ytd-proj |
| Rodriguez, Alex | Yankees | 50 | .531 | .376 | 6.8 |
| Martin, Russell | Yankees | 52 | .398 | .328 | 3.1 |
| Chavez, Eric | Yankees | 20 | .421 | .285 | 2.4 |
| Granderson, Curtis | Yankees | 55 | .377 | .345 | 1.5 |
| Jones, Andruw | Yankees | 12 | .414 | .326 | 0.9 |
| Cano, Robinson | Yankees | 64 | .375 | .360 | 0.8 |
| Teixeira, Mark | Yankees | 66 | .395 | .383 | 0.7 |
| Posada, Jorge | Yankees | 54 | .322 | .344 | -1.0 |
| Swisher, Nick | Yankees | 64 | .309 | .356 | -2.6 |
| Jeter, Derek | Yankees | 66 | .262 | .332 | -4.0 |
| Gardner, Brett | Yankees | 51 | .182 | .325 | -6.3 |
| Total | 554 | .352 | .348 | 2 |
ytd_woba year to date weighted on-base average
proj_woba average projected wOBA
ytd-proj run value of difference between projected and year to date woba
Brett Gardner’s the biggest disappointment so far offensively. Whether’s it’s just a rough start or indicative of something that we should worry about is something we just don’t know yet.
Did you know Gardner’s not the player who’s under-peforming his projection by the most? Here’s that list.
| player | team | pa | ytd_woba | proj_woba | ytd-proj |
| Crawford, Carl | Red Sox | 66 | .166 | .351 | -10.6 |
| Loney, James | Dodgers | 71 | .192 | .329 | -8.5 |
| Pujols, Albert | Cardinals | 73 | .308 | .431 | -7.8 |
| Johnson, Dan | Rays | 54 | .196 | .350 | -7.2 |
| Alvarez, Pedro | Pirates | 65 | .218 | .340 | -6.9 |
| Wells, Vernon | Angels | 74 | .220 | .325 | -6.7 |
| Morneau, Justin | Twins | 56 | .246 | .381 | -6.6 |
| Choo, Shin-Soo | Indians | 74 | .271 | .372 | -6.5 |
| Jackson, Austin | Tigers | 72 | .213 | .315 | -6.4 |
| Gardner, Brett | Yankees | 51 | .182 | .325 | -6.3 |
Apparently Austin Jackson did not have the BABIP skill to maintain his 2010 performance, at least so far.
The net on the offense is actually fine. As a unit they’ve collectively slightly overperformed, but not to a large extent.
The pitching is the real problem.
| Last, First | mlbam_id | ip | ytd_ra | ytd_fip | p_ra | p_fip | diff_ra | diff_fip |
| Garcia, Freddy | 150119 | 6.0 | 0.00 | 3.37 | 4.96 | 4.75 | 3.3 | 0.9 |
| Sabathia, CC | 282332 | 25.0 | 2.88 | 3.08 | 3.66 | 3.62 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Burnett, A.J. | 150359 | 22.7 | 4.76 | 4.88 | 4.98 | 4.55 | 0.5 | -0.8 |
| Nova, Ivan | 467100 | 14.7 | 7.36 | 4.22 | 5.43 | 4.95 | -3.2 | 1.2 |
| Hughes, Phil | 461833 | 10.3 | 13.94 | 8.81 | 4.19 | 4.12 | -11.2 | -5.4 |
| Total | 78.7 | 5.49 | 4.59 | -8.3 | -2.6 | |||
| Last, First | mlbam_id | ip | ytd_ra | ytd_fip | p_ra | p_fip | diff_ra | diff_fip |
| Robertson, David | 502085 | 6.0 | 0.00 | 1.87 | 3.95 | 3.70 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| Pendleton, Lance | 459983 | 3.0 | 0.00 | 1.87 | 5.25 | 4.94 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Rivera, Mariano | 121250 | 9.3 | 1.93 | 2.02 | 3.02 | 3.32 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Colon, Bartolo | 112526 | 11.3 | 4.76 | 2.85 | 5.56 | 4.96 | 1.0 | 2.7 |
| Ayala, Luis | 425646 | 5.0 | 3.60 | 6.20 | 5.39 | 4.60 | 1.0 | -0.9 |
| Chamberlain, Joba | 501955 | 10.0 | 4.50 | 2.40 | 4.41 | 3.88 | -0.1 | 1.6 |
| Garcia, Freddy | 150119 | 1.0 | 9.00 | 4.20 | 4.96 | 4.75 | -0.4 | 0.1 |
| Nova, Ivan | 467100 | 0.7 | 13.50 | 3.20 | 5.43 | 4.95 | -0.6 | 0.1 |
| Logan, Boone | 457429 | 3.0 | 9.00 | 6.53 | 4.68 | 4.41 | -1.4 | -0.7 |
| Soriano, Rafael | 400089 | 7.7 | 7.04 | 3.59 | 3.37 | 3.51 | -3.1 | -0.1 |
| Total | 22.3 | 10.48 | 7.90 | -5.7 | 1.1 | |||
| Team Total | 101.0 | 6.59 | 5.32 | -14.0 | -1.6 |
ytd_ra: year to date runs allowed per nine innings
ytd_fip: year to date fielding-independent pitching
p_ra: average projected ra
p_fip: average projected fip
diff_ra: difference in runs between projected and actual ra
diff_fip: difference in runs between projected and actual fip
Add about 7 inches and 65 pounds to Brett Gardner and you’ve got Phil Hughes. The thing that really scares me here is seeing that A.J. Burnett’s FIP is actually worse than his projected FIP. He’s looked better than that to me, although I guess last night’s game is evidence that he’s still a work in progress.
The pen has been a bit worse than expected, primarly thanks to Boone Logan and Rafael Soriano. I’d expect Soriano to be fine going forward, but I’m not so sure on Logan.
I figured Hughes had to be the pitcher who’s been underperforming by the most this year, but it turns out that’s not quite true.
| Last, First | mlbam_id | ip | ytd_ra | ytd_fip | p_ra | p_fip | diff_ra | diff_fip |
| Pelfrey, Mike | 460059 | 16.7 | 10.80 | 5.66 | 4.52 | 4.15 | -11.6 | -2.8 |
| Hughes, Phil | 461833 | 10.3 | 13.94 | 8.81 | 4.19 | 4.12 | -11.2 | -5.4 |
| Bedard, Erik | 407853 | 13.7 | 10.54 | 8.03 | 3.87 | 3.91 | -10.1 | -6.3 |
| Figueroa, Nelson | 150153 | 16.0 | 10.13 | 2.89 | 4.54 | 4.39 | -9.9 | 2.7 |
| Lackey, John | 407793 | 14.7 | 9.82 | 6.00 | 4.61 | 4.08 | -8.5 | -3.1 |
| Westbrook, Jake | 150414 | 15.3 | 9.39 | 6.85 | 4.47 | 4.36 | -8.4 | -4.3 |
| Hernandez, Felix | 433587 | 27.0 | 6.00 | 3.24 | 3.24 | 3.29 | -8.3 | 0.2 |
| Penny, Brad | 207267 | 21.3 | 8.44 | 5.78 | 4.97 | 4.46 | -8.2 | -3.1 |
Over at Baseball Think Factory there’ve been a few threads that were essentially arguments between Yankees fans and Mets fans about who you’d rather have, Hughes or Mike Pelfrey. Apparently, the correct answer is neither.
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Yankees.com: Big blasts back Burnett as Yanks top O’s
NEW YORK—A.J. Burnett continued his strong opening act by winning his third straight start, backed by home runs from Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada as the Yankees defeated the Orioles, 7-4, on Wednesday at Yankee Stadium.
Intent upon bouncing back after a disappointing season in 2010, Burnett was staked to an early lead by his bats and remained in control of the Baltimore lineup into the seventh inning before serving up a pair of two-run homers.
Although his final line looks less than stellar, I thought Burnett pitched very well tonight. He labored through the first two innings, throwing something like 50 pitches, then cruised through the next four innings. Innings 3-6 might have been the best I’ve seen Burnett pitch as a Yankee. What I really liked was his increased use of the changeup.
Burnett got Adam Jones out to start the top of the 7th, then allowed a double and a HR. I’d have probably pulled him then, figuring he may be fatigued or the weather may have gotten to him. Girardi decided to stick with him and he gave up another two-run HR, to pull the Orioles within three. Girardi was clearly confused at this point, because even though it was the 7th inning he did not bring in his 7th inning guy, instead going with David Robertson who closed out the inning. Rafael Soriano and Mariano Rivera finished it out, like they normally should and the Yankees are now tied for first place. Yay!
Monday, April 11, 2011
Yankee BABIP vs. xBABIP through April 10, 2011
Using the methodology referenced in this article, here’s a comparison of the Yankees’ YTD BABIP (batting average on balls in play) compared to their expected BABIP.
| player | bip | babip | avg/obp/slg | br | xbabip | xavg/obp/slg | xbr | dbr |
| Eric Chavez | 9 | .444 | .444/.444/.667 | 2.6 | .278 | .278/.278/.500 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Robinson Cano | 29 | .345 | .324/.342/.595 | 9.4 | .307 | .295/.313/.565 | 8.9 | 0.4 |
| Andruw Jones | 3 | .333 | .400/.400/1.200 | 2.3 | .302 | .381/.381/1.181 | 2.2 | 0.0 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 1 | .000 | .000/.000/.000 | 0.0 | .000 | .000/.000/.000 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 21 | .286 | .321/.441/.714 | 9.8 | .286 | .322/.441/.714 | 9.8 | 0.0 |
| Russell Martin | 22 | .273 | .300/.344/.633 | 8.1 | .327 | .340/.381/.673 | 8.5 | -0.5 |
| Nick Swisher | 26 | .269 | .219/.289/.250 | 5.0 | .297 | .260/.324/.291 | 5.5 | -0.5 |
| Curtis Granderson | 15 | .200 | .172/.250/.414 | 5.6 | .326 | .238/.309/.479 | 6.3 | -0.7 |
| Derek Jeter | 29 | .241 | .206/.300/.235 | 5.3 | .299 | .264/.350/.294 | 6.1 | -0.8 |
| Brett Gardner | 23 | .217 | .167/.250/.267 | 4.6 | .339 | .237/.327/.337 | 5.4 | -0.8 |
| Mark Teixeira | 19 | .105 | .182/.325/.545 | 8.9 | .319 | .305/.427/.669 | 10.4 | -1.5 |
| Jorge Posada | 17 | .059 | .138/.194/.448 | 5.3 | .316 | .289/.335/.599 | 7.0 | -1.7 |
| Total | 214 | .243 | .236/.310/.471 | 66.7 | .322 | .284/.354/.519 | 72.2 | -5.4 |
br and xbr are actual and expected linear weights batting runs, not adjusted for position or compared to average/replacement level. dbr is just actual br minus xbr. A positive dbr means that a player’s current BABIP is probably higher than it should be, and vice versa.
The good news is that most of the team should probably be hitting a bit better than they have to this point. The bad news is that even if Derek Jeter’s been a bit unlucky so far, even if that corrects itself he still looks pretty bad.
Interesting fact. Jeter does NOT lead baseball in ground balls so far.
| Player | BIP | LD | GB | FB | IFFB |
| Alcides Escobar | 38 | 4 | 26 | 8 | 1 |
| Jose Tabata | 35 | 5 | 23 | 7 | 0 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 33 | 3 | 23 | 7 | 0 |
| Derek Jeter | 29 | 3 | 23 | 3 | 1 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 32 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 0 |
| Chipper Jones | 37 | 5 | 22 | 10 | 1 |
| Starlin Castro | 37 | 8 | 21 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Young | 34 | 6 | 21 | 7 | 0 |
| Lyle Overbay | 32 | 3 | 21 | 8 | 0 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 32 | 4 | 20 | 8 | 0 |
| Juan Pierre | 40 | 11 | 20 | 9 | 1 |
| Joe Mauer | 25 | 1 | 20 | 4 | 0 |
| A.J. Pierzynski | 35 | 4 | 19 | 12 | 1 |
| Chris Coghlan | 34 | 4 | 19 | 11 | 0 |
| Miguel Tejada | 32 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 1 |
| Kevin Kouzmanoff | 25 | 2 | 18 | 6 | 0 |
| Hunter Pence | 28 | 3 | 17 | 8 | 1 |
| Denard Span | 29 | 6 | 17 | 6 | 2 |
| Buster Posey | 24 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 0 |
| Skip Schumaker | 29 | 5 | 17 | 7 | 2 |
So far the ground ball title is Alcides Escobar’s to lose.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Yankee Position Players through April 4, 2011
| Player | Team | Lg | Pos | PA | wOBA | BRAR | RS | WAR |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | AL | 1B | 18 | .583 | 3.5 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 17 | .553 | 3.4 | -0.6 | 0.3 |
| Russell Martin | Yankees | AL | C | 14 | .484 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Jorge Posada | Yankees | AL | DH | 16 | .508 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | AL | CF | 14 | .318 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | AL | 2B | 18 | .366 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | AL | RF | 18 | .339 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Eric Chavez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 1 | .000 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Eduardo Nunez | Yankees | AL | SS | 1 | .000 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.1 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | AL | LF | 16 | .158 | -1.6 | 0.4 | -0.1 |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | AL | SS | 17 | .191 | -1.1 | -1.0 | -0.2 |
| Total | 150 | .389 | 11 | -1 | 1 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: Linear weights batting runs above replacement level, adjusted for position
RS: Defensive runs saved compared to average
WAR: Wins above replacement (BRAR + RS divided by 10).
Just goofing around with my spreadsheets again and figured I’d put this up.
Monday, April 4, 2011
MLB.com: Yankees’ bullpen finishes job for Nova
NEW YORK—Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada hit two-run homers to support Ivan Nova’s first start of the year as the Yankees defeated the Twins, 4-3, on Monday at Yankee Stadium.
I thought Nova looked pretty good overall. His location was great for most of the game. Even the pitch that Thome hit for a two-run double was good one, a changeup down in the zone. He could have located it a bit more outside, but it wasn’t a bad spot really; tip your cap to the forty year old on that one.
Saturday, April 2, 2011
Yankees.com: Yanks’ bats relentless in rout of Tigers
NEW YORK—A.J. Burnett fought a head cold for five good innings and Mark Teixeira continued to win his battle with April’s chills as the Yankees defeated the Tigers, 10-6, on Saturday at Yankee Stadium.
Congested and weakened by illness this week, Burnett limited the Tigers to three runs and was cushioned by Teixeira’s second three-run homer of the young campaign, a blast off Detroit starter Brad Penny.
Russell Martin also slugged a three-run homer, connecting in the fifth off Brad Thomas, and Alex Rodriguez took rookie Brayan Villarreal deep for a solo shot in the sixth, the 614th homer of Rodriguez’s career.
I liked what I saw out of Burnett, especially factoring in the fact that he was fighting an illness. The Yankees will go for the sweep tomorrow afternoon with Phil Hughes on the hill.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Looking Ahead To 2011 - Position Player Wrap-Up
With the bench looking settled now, I’ll buzz through the projections for Eric Chavez, Andruw Jones, Eduardo Nunez, Chris Dickerson, Francisco Cervelli and Gustavo Molina and summarize the team’s position players.
Offense
| player | Chavez, Eric | age | 34 | |||||||||||||||||
| projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAA | BRAR | BABIP |
| cairo | 176 | 160 | 19 | 39 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 13 | .244 | .301 | .400 | .306 | 19 | 69 | -2 | 4 | .279 |
| marcel | 265 | 241 | 26 | 57 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 19 | .237 | .291 | .365 | .288 | 25 | 61 | -6 | 3 | .281 |
| oliver | 239 | 219 | 23 | 51 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .233 | .285 | .342 | .278 | 21 | 57 | -7 | 1 | .294 |
| pecota | 450 | 405 | 46 | 90 | 20 | 1 | 10 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 41 | .222 | .293 | .351 | .287 | 41 | 59 | -12 | 4 | .269 |
| zips | 123 | 112 | 11 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .205 | .260 | .313 | .255 | 9 | 46 | -6 | -1 | .250 |
| average* | 251 | 227 | 25 | 52 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .229 | .289 | .355 | .285 | 23 | 59 | -7 | 2 | .277 |
| 2010 | 126 | 114 | 10 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .237 | .278 | .333 | .268 | 10 | 53 | -4 | 0 | .306 |
| player | Jones, Andruw | age | 34 | |||||||||||||||||
| projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAA | BRAR | BABIP |
| cairo | 386 | 333 | 47 | 74 | 16 | 1 | 16 | 51 | 6 | 2 | 44 | .222 | .313 | .420 | .320 | 45 | 76 | 0 | 8 | .248 |
| marcel | 397 | 343 | 46 | 75 | 17 | 1 | 16 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 47 | .219 | .315 | .414 | .319 | 46 | 76 | 0 | 8 | .247 |
| oliver | 394 | 338 | 48 | 74 | 15 | 1 | 18 | 53 | 5 | 2 | 51 | .219 | .325 | .429 | .331 | 48 | 80 | 2 | 10 | .246 |
| pecota | 455 | 390 | 55 | 88 | 17 | 1 | 21 | 55 | 7 | 2 | 56 | .226 | .327 | .436 | .334 | 57 | 82 | 3 | 13 | .251 |
| zips | 337 | 290 | 40 | 64 | 13 | 1 | 16 | 46 | 6 | 2 | 41 | .221 | .320 | .438 | .330 | 42 | 81 | 2 | 9 | .244 |
| average* | 394 | 339 | 47 | 75 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 50 | 6 | 2 | 48 | .221 | .320 | .427 | .327 | 48 | 79 | 1 | 9 | .247 |
| 2010 | 328 | 278 | 41 | 64 | 12 | 1 | 19 | 48 | 9 | 2 | 45 | .230 | .341 | .486 | .357 | 47 | 93 | 8 | 15 | .239 |
| player | Nuñez, Eduardo | age | 26 | |||||||||||||||||
| projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAA | BRAR | BABIP |
| cairo | 528 | 494 | 61 | 127 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 48 | 19 | 7 | 26 | .257 | .295 | .352 | .287 | 49 | 60 | -13 | 5 | .285 |
| marcel | 226 | 203 | 32 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 19 | .276 | .341 | .424 | .336 | 29 | 83 | 2 | 10 | .303 |
| oliver | 526 | 489 | 56 | 132 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 49 | 13 | 5 | 25 | .270 | .302 | .364 | .293 | 50 | 62 | -11 | 7 | .305 |
| pecota | 496 | 465 | 53 | 126 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 49 | 15 | 5 | 20 | .271 | .300 | .370 | .294 | 49 | 64 | -10 | 8 | .302 |
| zips | 608 | 570 | 64 | 153 | 26 | 2 | 8 | 52 | 21 | 8 | 29 | .268 | .304 | .363 | .295 | 59 | 63 | -13 | 9 | .297 |
| average* | 477 | 444 | 53 | 119 | 20 | 2 | 7 | 45 | 15 | 5 | 24 | .267 | .305 | .368 | .296 | 47 | 64 | -9 | 8 | .297 |
| 2010 | 559 | 514 | 67 | 148 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 57 | 28 | 5 | 35 | .288 | .336 | .379 | .319 | 65 | 76 | -1 | 19 | .316 |
| player | Molina, Gustavo | age | 29 | |||||||||||||||||
| projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAA | BRAR | BABIP |
| cairo | 243 | 225 | 23 | 54 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 12 | .240 | .280 | .373 | .284 | 22 | 60 | -6 | 6 | .271 |
| marcel | 204 | 183 | 24 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 17 | .257 | .324 | .399 | .319 | 23 | 74 | -1 | 9 | .294 |
| oliver | 355 | 327 | 31 | 65 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .199 | .237 | .333 | .247 | 25 | 45 | -17 | 1 | .231 |
| pecota | 450 | 417 | 43 | 92 | 17 | 2 | 12 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .221 | .260 | .357 | .268 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 6 | .248 |
| zips | 197 | 185 | 17 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .227 | .259 | .357 | .267 | 16 | 51 | -7 | 2 | .253 |
| average* | 290 | 267 | 28 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 15 | .224 | .266 | .360 | .273 | 24 | 55 | -9 | 5 | .255 |
| 2010 | 126 | 119 | 13 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .235 | .278 | .479 | .320 | 16 | 81 | 1 | 7 | .233 |
| player | Dickerson, Chris | age | 29 | |||||||||||||||||
| projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAA | BRAR | BABIP |
| cairo | 223 | 194 | 26 | 50 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 23 | .259 | .337 | .392 | .323 | 26 | 77 | 0 | 5 | .329 |
| marcel | 283 | 248 | 32 | 64 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 9 | 2 | 29 | .258 | .336 | .391 | .323 | 34 | 77 | 0 | 6 | .326 |
| oliver | 382 | 328 | 47 | 80 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 12 | 5 | 44 | .244 | .330 | .375 | .314 | 42 | 72 | -3 | 5 | .340 |
| pecota | 450 | 386 | 53 | 96 | 18 | 3 | 10 | 45 | 20 | 6 | 54 | .249 | .340 | .389 | .325 | 54 | 78 | 1 | 10 | .326 |
| zips | 326 | 282 | 40 | 67 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 16 | 6 | 36 | .238 | .322 | .383 | .312 | 37 | 74 | -2 | 5 | .321 |
| average* | 333 | 288 | 40 | 71 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 37 | .248 | .333 | .385 | .319 | 39 | 76 | -1 | 6 | .329 |
| 2010 | 161 | 140 | 23 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 15 | .279 | .335 | .421 | .328 | 21 | 87 | 2 | 6 | .375 |
| player | Cervelli, Francisco | age | 25 | |||||||||||||||||
| projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAA | BRAR | BABIP |
| cairo | 292 | 256 | 29 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 24 | .254 | .325 | .344 | .302 | 28 | 63 | -6 | 8 | .286 |
| marcel | 369 | 320 | 38 | 88 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 43 | 3 | 3 | 33 | .275 | .341 | .372 | .318 | 40 | 71 | -3 | 15 | .308 |
| oliver | 355 | 310 | 35 | 77 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 30 | .248 | .318 | .329 | .293 | 33 | 60 | -9 | 8 | .300 |
| pecota | 450 | 397 | 49 | 101 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 3 | 1 | 37 | .254 | .322 | .348 | .301 | 44 | 64 | -9 | 13 | .294 |
| zips | 310 | 269 | 25 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 | 3 | 26 | .257 | .326 | .338 | .299 | 29 | 61 | -7 | 8 | .298 |
| average* | 355 | 310 | 35 | 80 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 30 | .258 | .327 | .347 | .303 | 35 | 64 | -7 | 11 | .298 |
| 2010 | 317 | 266 | 27 | 72 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 33 | .271 | .350 | .335 | .312 | 32 | 66 | -5 | 11 | .305 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average (does not include SB/CS)
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAA: BR above an average player in projected playing time (adjusted for park, but not for position)
BRAR: BR above a replacement level player (adjusted for park and position)
2010: Un-adjusted 2010 performance
None of those projections inspires much confidence, except maybe Dickerson’s. In the context of a backup catcher there’s also nothing wrong with that Cervelli projection either I guess.
I suppose you can hope that better health lets Chavez exceed his projection, and that platooning lets Jones be a bit better on a rate basis, and that Nunez’s tools mean he can beat that projection, but really, the Yankees need their starters to stay reasonably healthy, which I think we already knew.
CAIRO has the Yankees projected as scoring around 821 runs, using this basic depth chart.
| player | pos | pa | outs | br | rs |
| Derek Jeter | ss | 600 | 403 | 75 | -6 |
| Nick Swisher | rf | 600 | 400 | 84 | 2 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1b | 625 | 403 | 99 | 5 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3b | 550 | 357 | 89 | -3 |
| Robinson Cano | 2b | 625 | 422 | 95 | 0 |
| Jorge Posada | dh | 500 | 331 | 70 | 0 |
| Curtis Granderson | cf | 575 | 390 | 78 | 4 |
| Russell Martin | c | 500 | 333 | 60 | 2 |
| Brett Gardner | lf | 550 | 360 | 68 | 11 |
| starters | 5125 | 3399 | 718 | 15 | |
| bench | pos | pa | outs | br | rs |
| Andruw Jones | of | 247 | 175 | 29 | 0 |
| Francisco Cervelli | c | 200 | 141 | 19 | 0 |
| Eric Chavez | 3B | 200 | 144 | 21 | 0 |
| Eduardo Nuñez | if | 200 | 147 | 18 | 0 |
| Jesus Montero | c | 130 | 93 | 16 | 0 |
| bench | 977 | 701 | 103 | 0 | |
| team | 6102 | 4100 | 821 | 15 |
br are linear weights batting runs, and rs are estimated defensive runs saved compared to average. I’ve purposely set the bench to average because I don’t know that projecting defense for part-time players who may play multiple positions makes any sense. We can probably figure that Jesus Montero will be below average and that Eric Chavez should be decent.
The same depth chart with the other projection systems plus CAIRO average out to about 812 runs scored. That’s the second highest total projected runs scored in baseball behind Boston, and it’s the best total if you account for park. So barring major injury, the offense should do its part, which I think we already knew. I’ll include the defense with the pitching wrap-up.
Monday, March 21, 2011
NYDN: Yankees dominate Phillies behind CC home runs from A-Rod, Teixeira
With just 10 days remaining until their March 31 opener, the Yankees looked terrific in an 8-1 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies at Bright House Field. CC Sabathia allowed one run and six hits in 6-2/3 efficient innings, Alex Rodriguez homered (again) and doubled, upping his spring slugging percentage to an absurd 1.000, and Mark Teixeira homered, too.
It all put Joe Girardi in a giddy mood - he could barely stop smiling in his postgame briefing, saying, “It’s how you draw it up. You want to see it all start to come together.”
..
Of all the streaking Yankees, though, none is hotter than Rodriguez, who has hit in all 13 of his spring games, has homered in four of five and knocked in at least one run in seven straight. He is batting .432 with five homers and six doubles in 37 at-bats.While A-Rod tries to downplay the eye-popping stats, even Girardi couldn’t help gushing. “Stay right where you’re at, Alex, and we’ll leave it at that,” the manager said. “The way he’s driving the baseball, it’s what you’re used to seeing from Alex and you can’t ignore it.”
I probably shouldn’t be, but I am expecting an MVP-type year out of Rodriguez now.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
How Unlucky Were Some of the Yankees’ Hitters in 2010?
In my Derek Jeter 2011 projection post I mentioned his xBABIP (expected batting average on balls in play)and what it might mean going forward. Moshe Mandel of The Yankee Analysts e-mailed me to tell me about a spreadsheet available at the Hardball Times that calculates xBABIP. What’s nice about this spreadsheet is it does account for many of the factors that explain the variance in skill for players and their BABIP.
BABIP was better explained as a function all batted-ball types and ratios with speed/power/strikeout considerations.
So I figured I’d see what it said about Jeter in 2010, which then led me to figuring I might as well run it for the rest of the Yankee starters since we are hoping for bigger years from Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira and hoping we don’t see severe drop-offs from Brett Gardner and Nick Swisher.
| player | team | pa | babip | br | xbabip | xbr | dbr | -2 Std | -1 Std | 1 Std | 2 Std |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | 739 | .307 | 82 | .342 | 93 | 11 | .317 | .330 | .355 | .367 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | 595 | .274 | 88 | .305 | 95 | 7 | .278 | .291 | .318 | .332 |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | 712 | .268 | 107 | .295 | 114 | 7 | .271 | .283 | .307 | .320 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | 528 | .277 | 69 | .308 | 76 | 6 | .279 | .293 | .322 | .336 |
| Jorge Posada | Yankees | 451 | .287 | 63 | .322 | 69 | 6 | .290 | .306 | .338 | .354 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | 569 | .340 | 71 | .349 | 73 | 2 | .320 | .335 | .363 | .378 |
| Francisco Cervelli | Yankees | 317 | .316 | 33 | .314 | 32 | 0 | .276 | .295 | .333 | .351 |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | 696 | .326 | 117 | .310 | 112 | -5 | .285 | .298 | .323 | .336 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | 635 | .335 | 98 | .305 | 91 | -7 | .279 | .292 | .319 | .332 |
babip: batting average on balls in play.
br: linear weights batting runs (does not include GDP or SB)
xbabip: expected batting average on balls in play
xbr: linear weights batting runs adjusted for xBABIP
dbr: xbr minus br
A postive dBR means a player would have been better if they hit to their xBABIP.
This looks about right to me. If the Yankees had hit to their xBABIP instead of their BABIP in 2010 they’d have scored about 28 more runs. In theory this means we can probably expect slightly worse years out of Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher and better years out of almost everyone else, with the caveat that a single season’s xBABIP should only be part of the player’s projection.
I’m also encouraged to see Posada’s xBABIP at .322, since it means CAIRO’s 2011 projection of .319 isn’t completely crazy.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Looking Ahead To 2011 - Alex Rodriguez
If you go by Baseball Reference’s version of wins above replacement(WAR), Alex Rodriguez had what was probably the worst full season of his career in 2010.
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | PA | WAR |
| 1996 | 20 | SEA | AL | 677 | 9.4 |
| 1997 | 21 | SEA | AL | 638 | 4.8 |
| 1998 | 22 | SEA | AL | 748 | 7.9 |
| 1999 | 23 | SEA | AL | 572 | 4.7 |
| 2000 | 24 | SEA | AL | 672 | 11.0 |
| 2001 | 25 | TEX | AL | 732 | 8.0 |
| 2002 | 26 | TEX | AL | 725 | 8.2 |
| 2003 | 27 | TEX | AL | 715 | 7.7 |
| 2004 | 28 | NYY | AL | 698 | 6.2 |
| 2005 | 29 | NYY | AL | 715 | 8.4 |
| 2006 | 30 | NYY | AL | 674 | 4.2 |
| 2007 | 31 | NYY | AL | 708 | 9.9 |
| 2008 | 32 | NYY | AL | 594 | 5.4 |
| 2009 | 33 | NYY | AL | 535 | 3.9 |
| 2010 | 34 | NYY | AL | 595 | 2.9 |
Given his age and his hip injury that’s not surprising. However, the degree of his drop was larger than projected. Rodriguez’s average projection heading into 2010 was for a line of .285/.387/.543 which would have been worth about 48 runs above replacement level. A slightly lower run environment combined with his worse than expected hitting meant he was in fact only worth about 37 runs above replacement level offensively.
So of course, the question is why.
| Season | BIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | LD% | HR/FB | BB/PA | K/PA |
| 2007 | 441 | .309 | 44.0% | 44.9% | 18.1% | 27.3% | 16.3% | 20.6% |
| 2008 | 378 | .328 | 44.2% | 42.1% | 19.0% | 22.0% | 12.7% | 22.9% |
| 2009 | 329 | .303 | 45.0% | 40.1% | 21.3% | 22.7% | 18.0% | 21.8% |
| 2010 | 420 | .274 | 47.6% | 41.7% | 14.3% | 17.1% | 11.3% | 18.8% |
| Career | 3581 | .318 | 42.2% | 40.0% | 17.8% | 23.1% | 12.7% | 20.8% |
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that were ground balls
FB%: Percentage of balls in play that were fly balls
LD%: Percentage of balls in play that were line drives
HR/FB: Home runs per fly ball
The .274 BABIP was the lowest of Rodriguez’s career, although he does have seasons of .281 (1999) and .290 (2002) on his ledger. Rodriguez’s line drive percentage plummeted, as did his walk rate. He actually struck out less frequently, but all that meant was he made more outs on balls in play. I think it’s a safe assumption that Rodriguez was not hitting the ball as hard in 2010 as he had prior, although we don’t know if that explains the entire drop in his BABIP and HR/FB.
Another oddity about Rodriguez’s 2010 was his poor hitting against LHP. He’s hit .217/.314/.441 against them compared to .290/.352/.530 vs. RHP in 2010. He actually does have a slight reverse platoon split for his career (.290/.387/.567 compared to vs. LHP .307/.387/.573 vs RHP) but the 2010 performance sure looks like an outlier.
A rebound by Rodriguez is going to be key if the Yankees are going to contend for the postseason in 2011, so let’s look at what the projections think.
Offense
| projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAA | BRAR | BABIP |
| bill_james | 621 | 545 | 95 | 155 | 27 | 1 | 35 | 116 | 10 | 4 | 76 | .284 | .372 | .530 | .388 | 103 | 108 | 29 | 50 | .306 |
| fans | 590 | 522 | 89 | 149 | 29 | 2 | 31 | 108 | 6 | 2 | 68 | .285 | .378 | .527 | .392 | 98 | 108 | 27 | 48 | .302 |
| cairo | 594 | 510 | 88 | 143 | 27 | 1 | 32 | 116 | 11 | 3 | 69 | .280 | .370 | .525 | .384 | 97 | 106 | 26 | 46 | .293 |
| marcel | 551 | 479 | 74 | 129 | 24 | 1 | 26 | 96 | 10 | 3 | 60 | .269 | .354 | .486 | .363 | 81 | 96 | 16 | 35 | .289 |
| oliver | 562 | 485 | 77 | 131 | 23 | 1 | 29 | 88 | 8 | 3 | 65 | .270 | .361 | .501 | .372 | 86 | 99 | 19 | 38 | .287 |
| pecota | 621 | 533 | 88 | 145 | 25 | 1 | 34 | 93 | 13 | 4 | 75 | .272 | .370 | .514 | .381 | 99 | 104 | 25 | 47 | .288 |
| zips | 537 | 459 | 73 | 127 | 23 | 1 | 30 | 103 | 10 | 3 | 63 | .277 | .369 | .527 | .383 | 87 | 105 | 23 | 42 | .285 |
| average* | 573 | 493 | 80 | 135 | 24 | 1 | 30 | 99 | 10 | 3 | 66 | .274 | .365 | .511 | .377 | 90 | 102 | 22 | 42 | .288 |
| 2010 | 595 | 522 | 74 | 141 | 29 | 2 | 30 | 125 | 4 | 3 | 59 | .270 | .341 | .506 | .360 | 88 | 96 | 17 | 37 | .274 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average (does not include SB/CS)
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAA: BR above an average player in projected playing time (adjusted for park, but not for position)
BRAR: BR above a replacement level player (adjusted for park and position)
2010: Un-adjusted 2010 performance
*average does not include bill_james or fans
The projections do expect a better Rodriguez in 2011, albeit only slightly better. At age 35, the clock isn’t on his side.
Here are his CAIRO percentile forecasts.
| cairo % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAA | BRAR |
| 80% | 624 | 536 | 99 | 159 | 32 | 2 | 38 | 130 | 14 | 4 | 79 | .297 | .398 | .575 | .416 | 115 | 120 | 40 | 62 |
| 65% | 606 | 520 | 93 | 150 | 29 | 1 | 35 | 122 | 12 | 4 | 73 | .289 | .384 | .550 | .400 | 105 | 113 | 32 | 54 |
| Baseline | 594 | 510 | 88 | 143 | 27 | 1 | 32 | 116 | 11 | 3 | 69 | .280 | .370 | .525 | .384 | 97 | 106 | 26 | 46 |
| 35% | 535 | 459 | 75 | 123 | 22 | 0 | 26 | 100 | 8 | 2 | 58 | .269 | .351 | .490 | .361 | 79 | 95 | 15 | 34 |
| 20% | 475 | 408 | 63 | 105 | 17 | 0 | 21 | 84 | 6 | 1 | 49 | .257 | .331 | .455 | .338 | 62 | 85 | 6 | 23 |
I’m not sure how feasible it is to think Rodriguez can achieve the upper end of those forecasts, so here’s a list of the best seasons by a player aged 35 or older in terms of total linear weights batting runs.
| Rank | playerID | yearID | teamID | lgID | Age | BR |
| 1 | bondsba01 | 2001 | SFN | NL | 37 | 185 |
| 2 | bondsba01 | 2004 | SFN | NL | 40 | 173 |
| 3 | bondsba01 | 2002 | SFN | NL | 38 | 169 |
| 4 | mcgwima01 | 1998 | SLN | NL | 35 | 163 |
| 5 | ruthba01 | 1931 | NYA | AL | 36 | 158 |
| 6 | ruthba01 | 1930 | NYA | AL | 35 | 157 |
| 7 | mcgwima01 | 1999 | SLN | NL | 36 | 142 |
| 8 | bondsba01 | 2003 | SFN | NL | 39 | 140 |
| 9 | speaktr01 | 1923 | CLE | AL | 35 | 139 |
| 10 | willite01 | 1957 | BOS | AL | 39 | 137 |
| 11 | bondsba01 | 2000 | SFN | NL | 36 | 134 |
| 12 | palmera01 | 1999 | TEX | AL | 35 | 133 |
| 13 | sheffga01 | 2003 | ATL | NL | 35 | 133 |
| 14 | ruthba01 | 1932 | NYA | AL | 37 | 132 |
| 15 | walkela01 | 2001 | COL | NL | 35 | 131 |
| 16 | thompsa01 | 1895 | PHI | NL | 35 | 129 |
| 17 | martied01 | 1998 | SEA | AL | 35 | 125 |
| 18 | martied01 | 2000 | SEA | AL | 37 | 125 |
| 19 | galaran01 | 1996 | COL | NL | 35 | 124 |
| 20 | palmera01 | 2001 | TEX | AL | 37 | 124 |
| 21 | lajoina01 | 1910 | CLE | AL | 36 | 122 |
| 22 | galaran01 | 1997 | COL | NL | 36 | 122 |
| 23 | odoulle01 | 1932 | BRO | NL | 35 | 122 |
| 24 | molitpa01 | 1993 | TOR | AL | 37 | 121 |
| 25 | fournja01 | 1925 | BRO | NL | 36 | 120 |
| 26 | evansdw01 | 1987 | BOS | AL | 36 | 120 |
| 27 | galaran01 | 1998 | ATL | NL | 37 | 120 |
| 28 | gehrilo01 | 1938 | NYA | AL | 35 | 120 |
| 29 | broutda01 | 1894 | BLN | NL | 36 | 119 |
| 30 | aaronha01 | 1971 | ATL | NL | 37 | 119 |
| 31 | molitpa01 | 1991 | ML4 | AL | 35 | 119 |
| 32 | aaronha01 | 1969 | ATL | NL | 35 | 119 |
| 33 | palmera01 | 2000 | TEX | AL | 36 | 118 |
| 34 | palmera01 | 2002 | TEX | AL | 38 | 118 |
| 35 | mizejo01 | 1948 | NY1 | NL | 35 | 118 |
| 36 | jonesch06 | 2007 | ATL | NL | 35 | 118 |
| 37 | musiast01 | 1955 | SLN | NL | 35 | 117 |
| 38 | willite01 | 1954 | BOS | AL | 36 | 117 |
| 39 | gehrich01 | 1938 | DET | AL | 35 | 117 |
| 40 | fournja01 | 1924 | BRO | NL | 35 | 117 |
| 41 | thomeji01 | 2006 | CHA | AL | 36 | 117 |
| 42 | thomafr04 | 2003 | CHA | AL | 35 | 116 |
| 43 | gonzalu01 | 2003 | ARI | NL | 36 | 116 |
| 44 | wheatza01 | 1925 | BRO | NL | 37 | 116 |
| 45 | martied01 | 1999 | SEA | AL | 36 | 116 |
| 46 | gwynnto01 | 1997 | SDN | NL | 37 | 115 |
| 47 | henrito01 | 1948 | NYA | AL | 35 | 115 |
| 48 | connoro01 | 1892 | PHI | NL | 35 | 115 |
| 49 | gosligo01 | 1936 | DET | AL | 36 | 114 |
| 50 | anderbr01 | 1999 | BAL | AL | 35 | 113 |
| 51 | wheatza01 | 1924 | BRO | NL | 36 | 113 |
| 52 | musiast01 | 1957 | SLN | NL | 37 | 113 |
| 53 | sheffga01 | 2004 | NYA | AL | 36 | 113 |
| 54 | rosepe01 | 1976 | CIN | NL | 35 | 113 |
| 55 | aloumo01 | 2004 | CHN | NL | 38 | 113 |
| 56 | delahed01 | 1902 | WS1 | AL | 35 | 113 |
| 57 | jeterde01 | 2009 | NYA | AL | 35 | 113 |
| 58 | cobbty01 | 1921 | DET | AL | 35 | 113 |
| 59 | oliveal01 | 1982 | MON | NL | 36 | 113 |
| 60 | bagweje01 | 2003 | HOU | NL | 35 | 112 |
| 61 | mcraeha01 | 1982 | KCA | AL | 37 | 111 |
| 62 | brettge01 | 1988 | KCA | AL | 35 | 111 |
| 63 | schmimi01 | 1986 | PHI | NL | 37 | 111 |
| 64 | ruthba01 | 1933 | NYA | AL | 38 | 111 |
| 65 | vernomi01 | 1953 | WS1 | AL | 35 | 111 |
| 66 | dimagjo01 | 1950 | NYA | AL | 36 | 111 |
| 67 | greenha01 | 1946 | DET | AL | 35 | 110 |
| 68 | cobbty01 | 1922 | DET | AL | 36 | 110 |
| 69 | musiast01 | 1956 | SLN | NL | 36 | 110 |
| 70 | mcgrifr01 | 1999 | TBA | AL | 36 | 110 |
| 71 | stoveha01 | 1891 | BSN | NL | 35 | 109 |
| 72 | averiea01 | 1937 | CLE | AL | 35 | 109 |
| 73 | downibr01 | 1987 | CAL | AL | 37 | 109 |
| 74 | molitpa01 | 1996 | MIN | AL | 40 | 109 |
| 75 | johnsbo01 | 1944 | BOS | AL | 39 | 109 |
| 76 | sheffga01 | 2005 | NYA | AL | 37 | 109 |
| 77 | cobbty01 | 1924 | DET | AL | 38 | 108 |
| 78 | willicy01 | 1924 | PHI | NL | 37 | 108 |
| 79 | walkela01 | 2002 | COL | NL | 36 | 108 |
| 80 | rosepe01 | 1979 | PHI | NL | 38 | 107 |
| 81 | aaronha01 | 1970 | ATL | NL | 36 | 107 |
| 82 | winfida01 | 1988 | NYA | AL | 37 | 107 |
| 83 | bicheda01 | 1998 | COL | NL | 35 | 107 |
| 84 | posadjo01 | 2007 | NYA | AL | 36 | 107 |
| 85 | careyma01 | 1925 | PIT | NL | 35 | 107 |
| 86 | jonesch06 | 2008 | ATL | NL | 36 | 107 |
| 87 | oneilpa01 | 1998 | NYA | AL | 35 | 106 |
| 88 | molitpa01 | 1992 | ML4 | AL | 36 | 106 |
| 89 | mayswi01 | 1966 | SFN | NL | 35 | 106 |
| 90 | willite01 | 1956 | BOS | AL | 38 | 105 |
| 91 | willicy01 | 1922 | PHI | NL | 35 | 105 |
| 92 | collied01 | 1924 | CHA | AL | 37 | 105 |
| 93 | surhobj01 | 1999 | BAL | AL | 35 | 105 |
| 94 | delgaca01 | 2008 | NYN | NL | 36 | 104 |
| 95 | martied01 | 2001 | SEA | AL | 38 | 104 |
| 96 | wagneho01 | 1912 | PIT | NL | 38 | 104 |
| 97 | gracema01 | 1999 | CHN | NL | 35 | 104 |
| 98 | willicy01 | 1923 | PHI | NL | 36 | 104 |
| 99 | schmimi01 | 1985 | PHI | NL | 36 | 104 |
| 100 | giambja01 | 2006 | NYA | AL | 35 | 104 |
| 101 | schmimi01 | 1987 | PHI | NL | 38 | 104 |
| 102 | biggicr01 | 2001 | HOU | NL | 36 | 104 |
| 103 | bicheda01 | 1999 | COL | NL | 36 | 104 |
| 104 | richaha01 | 1890 | BSP | PL | 35 | 104 |
| 105 | heltoto01 | 2009 | COL | NL | 36 | 104 |
| 106 | sauerha01 | 1952 | CHN | NL | 35 | 103 |
| 107 | walketi01 | 1922 | PHA | AL | 35 | 103 |
| 108 | speaktr01 | 1925 | CLE | AL | 37 | 103 |
| 109 | ryanji01 | 1898 | CHN | NL | 35 | 103 |
| 110 | sauerha01 | 1954 | CHN | NL | 37 | 102 |
| 111 | suzukic01 | 2009 | SEA | AL | 36 | 102 |
| 112 | joosted01 | 1951 | PHA | AL | 35 | 102 |
| 113 | schmimi01 | 1984 | PHI | NL | 35 | 102 |
| 114 | averiea01 | 1938 | CLE | AL | 36 | 102 |
| 115 | hackst01 | 1945 | CHN | NL | 36 | 102 |
| 116 | winfida01 | 1992 | TOR | AL | 41 | 102 |
| 117 | gonzalu01 | 2002 | ARI | NL | 35 | 102 |
| 118 | rosepe01 | 1977 | CIN | NL | 36 | 101 |
| 119 | willite01 | 1958 | BOS | AL | 40 | 101 |
| 120 | kentje01 | 2005 | LAN | NL | 37 | 101 |
| 121 | ibanera01 | 2008 | SEA | AL | 36 | 101 |
| 122 | terrybi01 | 1934 | NY1 | NL | 36 | 101 |
| 123 | aloumo01 | 2001 | HOU | NL | 35 | 101 |
| 124 | thornan01 | 1984 | CLE | AL | 35 | 101 |
| 125 | yastrca01 | 1977 | BOS | AL | 38 | 101 |
| 126 | palmera01 | 2003 | TEX | AL | 39 | 100 |
| 127 | finlest01 | 2000 | ARI | NL | 35 | 100 |
| 128 | burnije01 | 2004 | COL | NL | 35 | 100 |
| 129 | jacksre01 | 1982 | CAL | AL | 36 | 100 |
| 130 | cobbty01 | 1925 | DET | AL | 39 | 100 |
There are 8674 age 35 or older seasons in MLB history. Of those seasons, only 130 of them have been worth at least 100 batting runs. It’s probably safe to say that eight of the top 12 seasons have a very good probability of having been chemically enhanced.
A few Yankees of recent vintage snuck into this list, including 2004 Gary Sheffield (#54 overall), 2009 Derek Jeter (#57), 2005 Sheffield (#76), 2007 Jorge Posada (#84), 1998 Paul O’Neill (#87) AND 2006 Jason Giambi (#100). Johnny Damon 2009 (#161) and Johnny Damon 2008 (#205) just missed the cut.
Of course, when you talk about Alex Rodriguez, you’re probably talking about one of the best players in baseball history. I’m pretty comfortable that Rodriguez is a better hitter right now than any of those recent vintage Yankees were at the time they had their big 35+ seasons. While it’s not the most likely scenario, he’s as good a bet as anyone to have a monster year at age 35, although achieving the heights of top of this list seems unlikely unless he gets into Giambi’s stash of super-secret designer undetectable steroids.
Base Running
| Year | ga_opps | ga_r | aa_opps | aa_r | ha_opps | ha_r | oa_opps | oa_r | total_opps | total_r |
| 2007 | 27 | 0 | 54 | 1 | 58 | 2 | 370 | 0 | 509 | 4 |
| 2008 | 19 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 290 | 1 | 388 | 2 |
| 2009 | 18 | 1 | 42 | 0 | 29 | -2 | 239 | 0 | 328 | -2 |
| 2010 | 21 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 36 | -1 | 278 | 0 | 362 | -1 |
| Proj | 20 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 37 | -1 | 278 | 0 | 372 | 0 |
ga_opps: opportunities to advance on grounders
ga_r: run value of advances on grounders
aa_opps: opportunites to advance on air outs
aa_r: run value of advances on air outs
ha_opps: opportunites to advance on hits
ha_r: run value of advances on hits
oa_opps: opportunites to adance on other (wild pitches, passed balls, etc.,)
oa_r: run value of advances on other
total_opps: ga + aa + ha + ao opportunities
total_r: total run value of non-SB base running, compared to average
Since injuring his hip, Rodriguez has not been able to provide much value on the basepaths in both SB and non-SB baserunning. If he’s healthier he may be able to reverse that trend, but I’m not sure that we want him being overly aggressive on the bases if it means a greater risk of injury.
Defense
| Player | Rodriguez, Alex | |||||||
| Pos | 3B | |||||||
| year | G | Inn | DRS | zRS | uRS | tRS | avg | rARM |
| 2006 | 151 | 1287 | -12 | -8 | -14 | -7 | -10 | 0 |
| 2007 | 154 | 1330 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2008 | 131 | 1126 | -2 | -1 | -2 | -2 | -2 | 0 |
| 2009 | 116 | 974 | -8 | -6 | -6 | -6 | -7 | 0 |
| 2010 | 124 | 1029 | -3 | -2 | -2 | -6 | -3 | 0 |
| avg | 135 | 1149 | -5 | -3 | -5 | -4 | -4 | 0 |
| w_avg | 129 | 1091 | -4 | -3 | -4 | -4 | -4 | 0 |
DRS: Defensive runs saved compared to average using John Dewan’s plus/minus system
zRS: Runs saved compared to average using Chris Dial’s zone rating system
uRS: Runs saved compared to average using UZR
tRS: Runs saved compared to average using Total Zone
rARM: Runs saved with arm compared to average (OF only)
avg: average from 2006-2010
w_avg: weighted average from 2006-2010 (5/4/3/2/1 weight)
Rodriguez’s defense just doesn’t rate all that well no matter what metric you look at. It’s kind of tough to judge 3B defense visually because of how hard some of the chances they have to field are hit, but somewhere in the -5 range for Rodriguez seems about right. If he has better lateral movement as he moves further away from his hip surgery he can probably be better than that, but I wouldn’t expect him to rate better than average at any point going forward.
Despite his age, I think the gap between what Rodriguez projects to do and what he could do is bigger than that of any other Yankee position player. Like just about every player in history, he has come into spring training in great shape. On a more serious note, he has looked very good so far, not that it tells us much.
I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a monster year, and if he does that the Yankees will have as good of a shot as anyone of being the team that will lose to Philadelphia in the World Series.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Some Spring Training Links
I’ll probably start my player projections this week whenever ZiPS comes out, but until then here are some spring training puff pieces to delude us that the Yankees have a chance at hanging with Boston.
NY Post:Yankees’ Rodriguez sets bar high on himself
It marked the third straight year—since he won his third AL MVP in 2007—that A-Rod’s batting average and slugging percentage fell. His homers have gone from 54 to 35 to 30 (he missed a quarter of the season after hip surgery) and 30 again. Yes, 30-125 is a dream for most players—it was 21 more RBIs than any other third baseman. But even Rodriguez called the past few seasons “not acceptable.”
“My team needs me to play at a high level to get to our ultimate goal, which is to win the World Series,” Rodriguez said yesterday from the party tent behind the third-base stands at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
NJ.com-Carig: Yankees pitcher Andrew Brackman puts on show for team officials
General manager Brian Cashman and director of pro scouting Billy Eppler watched from behind the batting cage. Manager Joe Girardi and pitching coach Larry Rothschild watched from behind screens in the infield. Brackman’s mother and father watched from the stands.
But Brackman, 25, pitched as if none of them were watching, displaying a much-refined delivery and improved command. The highly touted prospect, who is considered a longshot in the competition for a spot in the Yankees rotation, may have improved his odds with his well-timed performance.
MLB.com:Montero eager to win job with Yanks this spring
“I’m really happy the Yankees gave me the opportunity again, and I’m looking forward to being on the team this year, working hard every single day with the manager and coaches,” Montero said. “I’m trying to do the best every single day I’m here and see if I can make the team this year.”
Montero has already impressed coaches this spring with his improvement behind the plate, having worked last year at Triple-A with former Major Leaguer Butch Wynegar and this spring with Yankees catching coach Tony Pena.
“I think he sits more comfortable, I think his hands work better,” Girardi said. “He’s in outstanding shape. We’ll see as Spring Training goes on, he just looks more comfortable.”
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
North Jersey: Yankees hitting coach: No set lineup at camp
Could Brett Gardner hit leadoff against all pitchers?
Could Derek Jeter wind up further down the order?
“I think we need to [experiment]. It’s important we throw all the options out there,” said hitting coach Kevin Long, speaking in general terms in a phone interview from Arizona earlier this week.
“I wouldn’t say we have a set lineup going into camp,” Long said. “We’ll toy with it.”
Long has a full pre-camp calendar of visits with his hitters – including Jeter, who is coming off his worst offensive season.
“The ball’s in his court right now,” said Long, who has exchanged text messages with Jeter about setting up a pre-camp session, probably in Tampa, Fla. “It’s something I haven’t had to do [meeting with Jeter] because he’s been so good.”
I’d like to see Gardner leading off, at least against RHP. I can’t see the Yankees platooning Jeter at leadoff so if the trade-off is moving him down in the order permanently sign me up for that.
Ignoring platoon splits, here are what look like the best projected lineups the Yankees can use according to CAIRO and the Baseball Musings Lineup Tool.
| Overall | |||||||||
| Runs Per Game | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| 5.656 | Martin | Rodriguez | Jeter | Cano | Teixeira | Swisher | Posada | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.656 | Jeter | Rodriguez | Posada | Cano | Teixeira | Granderson | Swisher | Gardner | Martin |
| 5.656 | Teixeira | Rodriguez | Jeter | Cano | Posada | Granderson | Swisher | Gardner | Martin |
| 5.656 | Teixeira | Rodriguez | Jeter | Cano | Swisher | Granderson | Posada | Gardner | Martin |
| 5.655 | Martin | Rodriguez | Jeter | Cano | Teixeira | Posada | Swisher | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.655 | Martin | Teixeira | Jeter | Cano | Rodriguez | Swisher | Posada | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.655 | Jeter | Teixeira | Posada | Cano | Rodriguez | Granderson | Swisher | Gardner | Martin |
| 5.654 | Jeter | Rodriguez | Martin | Cano | Teixeira | Swisher | Posada | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.654 | Martin | Teixeira | Jeter | Cano | Rodriguez | Posada | Swisher | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.654 | Martin | Rodriguez | Jeter | Cano | Teixeira | Granderson | Swisher | Posada | Gardner |
| 5.654 | Martin | Rodriguez | Posada | Cano | Teixeira | Granderson | Swisher | Jeter | Gardner |
| 5.654 | Jeter | Rodriguez | Martin | Cano | Teixeira | Posada | Swisher | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.653 | Martin | Teixeira | Jeter | Rodriguez | Posada | Cano | Swisher | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.653 | Jeter | Rodriguez | Swisher | Cano | Teixeira | Granderson | Posada | Gardner | Martin |
| 5.653 | Jeter | Rodriguez | Posada | Cano | Teixeira | Swisher | Granderson | Gardner | Martin |
| 5.653 | Martin | Teixeira | Jeter | Rodriguez | Swisher | Cano | Posada | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.653 | Jeter | Teixeira | Martin | Cano | Rodriguez | Swisher | Posada | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.653 | Jeter | Rodriguez | Posada | Cano | Teixeira | Granderson | Swisher | Martin | Gardner |
| 5.653 | Jeter | Rodriguez | Gardner | Cano | Teixeira | Swisher | Posada | Granderson | Martin |
| 5.653 | Teixeira | Rodriguez | Jeter | Cano | Posada | Swisher | Granderson | Gardner | Martin |
| 5.653 | Martin | Teixeira | Jeter | Cano | Rodriguez | Granderson | Swisher | Posada | Gardner |
| 5.653 | Teixeira | Rodriguez | Jeter | Cano | Posada | Granderson | Swisher | Martin | Gardner |
| 5.653 | Martin | Teixeira | Posada | Cano | Rodriguez | Granderson | Swisher | Jeter | Gardner |
| 5.652 | Teixeira | Rodriguez | Jeter | Cano | Swisher | Granderson | Posada | Martin | Gardner |
| 5.652 | Jeter | Teixeira | Martin | Cano | Rodriguez | Posada | Swisher | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.652 | Jeter | Rodriguez | Martin | Cano | Teixeira | Granderson | Swisher | Posada | Gardner |
| 5.652 | Jeter | Teixeira | Swisher | Cano | Rodriguez | Granderson | Posada | Gardner | Martin |
| 5.652 | Jeter | Rodriguez | Gardner | Cano | Teixeira | Posada | Swisher | Granderson | Martin |
| 5.652 | Jeter | Teixeira | Posada | Cano | Rodriguez | Swisher | Granderson | Gardner | Martin |
| 5.652 | Teixeira | Rodriguez | Jeter | Cano | Swisher | Posada | Granderson | Gardner | Martin |
Of course, there’s no reason to ignore platoon splits, so here are the best lineups vs. RHP.
| Vs. RHP | |||||||||
| Runs Per Game | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| 5.675 | Gardner | Rodriguez | Posada | Cano | Teixeira | Granderson | Swisher | Jeter | Martin |
| 5.674 | Gardner | Rodriguez | Posada | Cano | Teixeira | Swisher | Granderson | Jeter | Martin |
| 5.673 | Gardner | Teixeira | Posada | Cano | Rodriguez | Granderson | Swisher | Jeter | Martin |
| 5.672 | Gardner | Teixeira | Posada | Cano | Rodriguez | Swisher | Granderson | Jeter | Martin |
| 5.671 | Gardner | Rodriguez | Swisher | Cano | Teixeira | Granderson | Posada | Jeter | Martin |
| 5.671 | Gardner | Cano | Posada | Rodriguez | Teixeira | Granderson | Swisher | Jeter | Martin |
| 5.67 | Gardner | Teixeira | Swisher | Cano | Rodriguez | Granderson | Posada | Jeter | Martin |
| 5.67 | Gardner | Teixeira | Posada | Rodriguez | Cano | Granderson | Swisher | Jeter | Martin |
| 5.67 | Gardner | Cano | Posada | Rodriguez | Teixeira | Swisher | Granderson | Jeter | Martin |
| 5.669 | Gardner | Rodriguez | Swisher | Cano | Teixeira | Posada | Granderson | Jeter | Martin |
| 5.669 | Teixeira | Rodriguez | Martin | Cano | Posada | Granderson | Swisher | Jeter | Gardner |
| 5.668 | Gardner | Teixeira | Posada | Rodriguez | Cano | Swisher | Granderson | Jeter | Martin |
| 5.668 | Teixeira | Rodriguez | Jeter | Cano | Posada | Granderson | Swisher | Martin | Gardner |
| 5.668 | Gardner | Rodriguez | Jeter | Cano | Teixeira | Granderson | Swisher | Posada | Martin |
| 5.667 | Gardner | Cano | Swisher | Rodriguez | Teixeira | Granderson | Posada | Jeter | Martin |
| 5.667 | Gardner | Teixeira | Swisher | Cano | Rodriguez | Posada | Granderson | Jeter | Martin |
| 5.667 | Teixeira | Rodriguez | Martin | Cano | Posada | Swisher | Granderson | Jeter | Gardner |
| 5.667 | Martin | Rodriguez | Posada | Cano | Teixeira | Granderson | Swisher | Jeter | Gardner |
| 5.667 | Teixeira | Rodriguez | Jeter | Cano | Posada | Swisher | Granderson | Martin | Gardner |
| 5.667 | Teixeira | Rodriguez | Gardner | Cano | Posada | Granderson | Swisher | Jeter | Martin |
| 5.666 | Teixeira | Rodriguez | Martin | Cano | Swisher | Granderson | Posada | Jeter | Gardner |
| 5.666 | Gardner | Rodriguez | Jeter | Cano | Teixeira | Swisher | Granderson | Posada | Martin |
| 5.666 | Gardner | Teixeira | Jeter | Cano | Rodriguez | Granderson | Swisher | Posada | Martin |
| 5.666 | Gardner | Teixeira | Swisher | Rodriguez | Cano | Granderson | Posada | Jeter | Martin |
| 5.666 | Teixeira | Rodriguez | Jeter | Cano | Swisher | Granderson | Posada | Martin | Gardner |
| 5.666 | Martin | Rodriguez | Posada | Cano | Teixeira | Swisher | Granderson | Jeter | Gardner |
| 5.666 | Gardner | Rodriguez | Jeter | Cano | Teixeira | Granderson | Posada | Swisher | Martin |
| 5.666 | Martin | Teixeira | Posada | Cano | Rodriguez | Granderson | Swisher | Jeter | Gardner |
| 5.666 | Gardner | Rodriguez | Granderson | Cano | Teixeira | Swisher | Posada | Jeter | Martin |
| 5.666 | Teixeira | Rodriguez | Gardner | Cano | Posada | Swisher | Granderson | Jeter | Martin |
And vs. LHP.
| Vs. LHP | |||||||||
| Runs Per Game | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| 5.687 | Martin | Teixeira | Jeter | Rodriguez | Swisher | Cano | Posada | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.686 | Jeter | Teixeira | Martin | Rodriguez | Swisher | Cano | Posada | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.684 | Jeter | Teixeira | Gardner | Rodriguez | Swisher | Cano | Posada | Granderson | Martin |
| 5.684 | Martin | Teixeira | Jeter | Rodriguez | Posada | Cano | Swisher | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.683 | Jeter | Teixeira | Martin | Rodriguez | Posada | Cano | Swisher | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.682 | Martin | Swisher | Jeter | Rodriguez | Teixeira | Cano | Posada | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.682 | Martin | Teixeira | Jeter | Rodriguez | Swisher | Posada | Cano | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.681 | Martin | Rodriguez | Jeter | Teixeira | Swisher | Cano | Posada | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.681 | Jeter | Teixeira | Gardner | Rodriguez | Posada | Cano | Swisher | Granderson | Martin |
| 5.681 | Jeter | Swisher | Martin | Rodriguez | Teixeira | Cano | Posada | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.681 | Jeter | Teixeira | Martin | Rodriguez | Swisher | Posada | Cano | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.681 | Jeter | Rodriguez | Martin | Teixeira | Swisher | Cano | Posada | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.68 | Martin | Teixeira | Posada | Rodriguez | Jeter | Cano | Swisher | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.679 | Jeter | Swisher | Gardner | Rodriguez | Teixeira | Cano | Posada | Granderson | Martin |
| 5.679 | Jeter | Teixeira | Gardner | Rodriguez | Swisher | Posada | Cano | Granderson | Martin |
| 5.679 | Martin | Teixeira | Jeter | Rodriguez | Posada | Swisher | Cano | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.679 | Jeter | Rodriguez | Gardner | Teixeira | Swisher | Cano | Posada | Granderson | Martin |
| 5.679 | Martin | Teixeira | Swisher | Rodriguez | Jeter | Cano | Posada | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.678 | Martin | Rodriguez | Jeter | Swisher | Teixeira | Cano | Posada | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.678 | Martin | Rodriguez | Jeter | Teixeira | Posada | Cano | Swisher | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.678 | Jeter | Teixeira | Martin | Rodriguez | Posada | Swisher | Cano | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.677 | Jeter | Rodriguez | Martin | Swisher | Teixeira | Cano | Posada | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.677 | Jeter | Rodriguez | Martin | Teixeira | Posada | Cano | Swisher | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.677 | Martin | Teixeira | Jeter | Swisher | Rodriguez | Cano | Posada | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.677 | Martin | Swisher | Jeter | Rodriguez | Teixeira | Posada | Cano | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.676 | Martin | Posada | Jeter | Rodriguez | Teixeira | Cano | Swisher | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.676 | Jeter | Teixeira | Gardner | Rodriguez | Posada | Swisher | Cano | Granderson | Martin |
| 5.676 | Martin | Rodriguez | Jeter | Teixeira | Swisher | Posada | Cano | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.676 | Jeter | Teixeira | Martin | Swisher | Rodriguez | Cano | Posada | Granderson | Gardner |
| 5.676 | Jeter | Swisher | Martin | Rodriguez | Teixeira | Posada | Cano | Granderson | Gardner |
I’ve assumed that Russell Martin will start the year as the primary catcher, but obviously that could change.
Some of these scenarios are unrealistic, like Mark Teixeira “leadoff hitter”, but I found it interesting that overall the most common ‘best’ lineup had Cano batting cleanup. It does look like Gardner should lead off against RHP and Jeter should lead off against LHP, assuming Martin’s not a viable candidate there.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Where Do We Go From Here (Outfield/DH Edition)?
Picking up from the prior post, here’s a look at how the Yankee outfield and DH spots project heading into 2011.
| Position | Rank | Player | % | PA | avg/obp/slg | wOBA | BR | BRAR | Def | WAR |
| LF | 1 | Gardner, Brett | 73.3% | 550 | .270/.358/.372 | .329 | 65 | 9 | 13 | 2.2 |
| 2 | Curtis, Colin | 10.0% | 75 | .242/.303/.361 | .295 | 7 | -1 | 0 | -0.1 | |
| 3 | Russo, Kevin | 10.0% | 75 | .243/.305/.328 | .286 | 6 | -1 | 0 | -0.1 | |
| 4 | Mesa, Melky | 6.5% | 49 | .211/.279/.372 | .286 | 4 | -1 | 0 | -0.1 | |
| 5 | Golson, Greg | 0.1% | 1 | .231/.272/.351 | .272 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Total | 750 | .264/.346/.366 | .321 | 78 | 6 | 13 | 1.9 |
wOBA: weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level
Def: Projected defense in terms of runs saved above/below average
We start in LF. One note about wOBA here is I do NOT include SB/CS, so when you compare them to Fangraphs you’ll see a big gap for high SB guys. I do this because I like to look at platoon splits a lot with wOBA and base running has no impact there. Figure you should add between .015 and .020 points to any guy who’s likely to steal 30-50 bases at a high success rate.
BR and BRAR do include SB/CS though, so that’s the main thing to look at here.
Anyway, I think Gardner’s offensive projection is a bit pessimistic, but I also think his defensive projection is a bit optimistic. His MLEs still drag his offensive projections down a bit, but that’s starting to become less of an issue. He projects to be a bit above average overall as a LF.
The problem the Yankees have right now will become apparent as we move around the OF though, and that’s the fact that they don’t really have any great options for fourth OF. I’ve listed the non-starting OF on the 40 man roster in this depth chart. Melky Mesa’s got the tools to be a prospect, but not the performance to this point. He still strikes out way too much to be an MLB hitter (297 times in 943 AB the past two seasons at Charleston(A) and Tampa(A+). He’s also 24, which means he’s probably not young enough to expect enough improvement to become an MLB player, although you never know.
How about center field? Funny you should ask.
| Position | Rank | Player | % | PA | avg/obp/slg | wOBA | BR | BRAR | Def | WAR |
| CF | 1 | Granderson, Curtis | 80.0% | 600 | .252/.335/.462 | .346 | 78 | 25 | 3 | 2.8 |
| 2 | Golson, Greg | 13.3% | 100 | .231/.272/.351 | .272 | 8 | -1 | 0 | -0.1 | |
| 3 | Gardner, Brett | 6.7% | 50 | .270/.358/.372 | .329 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | .000/.000/.000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||||
| 5 | .000/.000/.000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Total | 750 | .251/.328/.441 | .335 | 92 | 25 | 3 | 2.9 |
Curtis Granderson’s projection combines pretty good offense and defense and makes him almost 3 wins better than a theoretical replacement level CF. If his hot end to the season was the result of the changes in his swing, he may be able to exceed that projection, but even if he doesn’t that’s plenty good.
Gardner’s the actual #2 CF, but since I already gave him 550 PA in LF I’m only giving him 50 in CF. Golson is the only other OF on the 40 man roster who has played much CF. From what I’ve seen and from what the scouting reports say, he definitely has the glove for CF. Unfortunately, he doesn’t even have the bat for backup catcher.
Then we have right field.
| Position | Rank | Player | % | PA | avg/obp/slg | wOBA | BR | BRAR | Def | WAR |
| RF | 1 | Swisher, Nick | 83.3% | 625 | .260/.354/.470 | .357 | 83 | 19 | 2 | 2.1 |
| 2 | Curtis, Colin | 10.0% | 75 | .242/.303/.361 | .295 | 7 | -1 | 0 | -0.1 | |
| 3 | Russo, Kevin | 4.0% | 30 | .243/.305/.328 | .286 | 2 | -1 | 0 | -0.1 | |
| 4 | Mesa, Melky | 1.3% | 10 | .211/.279/.372 | .286 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| 5 | Golson, Greg | 1.3% | 10 | .231/.272/.351 | .272 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Total | 750 | .257/.347/.452 | .348 | 92 | 17 | 2 | 1.9 |
There’s nothing wrong with Nick Swisher in RF, but as with LF we see the problem once you get past him.
So we’ve identified fourth OF as a possible place for an upgrade. So how should the Yankees approach it?
Obviously, the first thing you’d look for is offense. So what outfielders are available that project to outhit Messrs. Curtis, Russo, Mesa and Golson?
| Name | mlbam | Bats | wOBA | Type |
| Winn, Randy | 133160 | B | .317 | NA |
| Young, Delwyn | 434704 | B | .315 | NA |
| Hawpe, Brad | 425547 | L | .350 | B |
| Damon, Johnny | 113028 | L | .340 | B |
| Edmonds, Jim | 113744 | L | .330 | NA |
| Lewis, Fred | 430930 | L | .330 | NA |
| Nix, Laynce | 425556 | L | .330 | NA |
| Carter, Chris | 452080 | L | .324 | NA |
| Gerut, Jody | 425506 | L | .324 | NA |
| Ankiel, Rick | 150449 | L | .323 | NA |
| Hermida, Jeremy | 435181 | L | .322 | NA |
| Harris, Willie | 407483 | L | .321 | NA |
| Church, Ryan | 425508 | L | .318 | NA |
| Wise, Dewayne | 276547 | L | .316 | NA |
| Gross, Gabe | 408212 | L | .314 | NA |
| Inglett, Joe | 446928 | L | .314 | NA |
| Podsednik, Scott | 325392 | L | .311 | B |
| Sullivan, Cory | 430622 | L | .302 | NA |
| Anderson, Garret | 110236 | L | .300 | NA |
| Patterson, Corey | 279913 | L | .282 | NA |
| Ramirez, Manny | 120903 | R | .395 | A |
| Ordonez, Magglio | 120044 | R | .369 | A |
| Dye, Jermaine | 113679 | R | .346 | NA |
| Hairston, Scott | 430668 | R | .326 | NA |
| Nady, Xavier | 294558 | R | .326 | NA |
| Kearns, Austin | 400290 | R | .326 | NA |
| Kapler, Gabe | 137002 | R | .325 | NA |
| Thames, Marcus | 407801 | R | .324 | NA |
| Milledge, Lastings | 451186 | R | .316 | NA |
| Guillen, Jose | 115229 | R | .316 | NA |
| Jones, Andruw | 116662 | R | .315 | NA |
| Johnson, Reed | 407862 | R | .309 | NA |
| Hall, Bill | 407849 | R | .306 | NA |
| Bloomquist, Willie | 217100 | R | .298 | NA |
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the Yankees aren’t going to go for Randy Winn 2, Electric Boogaloo. Delwyn Young is a switch-hitter who can also play bad defense at 2B/3B and corner OF. He’d probably outhit the other fourth OF candidates on the Yankees, but once you factor in defense I don’t know that he’s much of an upgrade. I suppose his defensive flexibility makes him useful in an emergency, but I don’t know if it’s enough to make him someone the Yankees should consider.
Brad Hawpe looks like he can hit, but he’s absolutely horrendous defensively and I am very skeptical of trying to figure out how a guy who’s spent most of his career in Colorado will hit elsewhere.
Hmm, I’m drawing a blank here. Damon Johnny? That name sounds familiar for some reason.
Honestly, none of the lefty hitting OF excite me and they don’t really address the platoon issue that I’m going to talk about after I get through this list.
Obviously Manny Ramirez and Magglio Ordonez would be nice additions to any team’s offense, but they’re probably likely to get full-time jobs and as Type A players they’d cost you a draft pick. I’d ignore Jermaine Dye’s projection since he didn’t play last year, and he’s a bad enough defensive OF that he probably gives away any offensive value.
That brings me to Scott Hairston. He is a right-handed hitting OF who can play all three OF spots, although he’s primarily been a LF. Given the construct of the Yankee OF, adding a RHB makes sense.
| Player | Pos | Bats | Projected wOBA | Vs L | Vs R |
| Brett Gardner | LF | L | .329 | .310 | .336 |
| Colin Curtis | OF | L | .295 | .274 | .299 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | L | .346 | .297 | .363 |
| Greg Golson | OF | R | .272 | .279 | .259 |
| Kevin Russo | OF | R | .286 | .294 | .277 |
| Marcus Thames | LF-RF | R | .327 | .340 | .318 |
| Nick Swisher | LF-RF | B | .357 | .367 | .353 |
| Scott Hairston | LF | R | .327 | .345 | .317 |
Hairston would project as the second-best Yankee OF vs. LHP, which would allow you to stick him in LF when you want to rest Gardner or Granderson, with Gardner moving to CF on the days you want to rest Granderson. Over 200 PA, the difference between Hairston and Granderson’s wOBA vs. LHP is about 8.5 runs, which is a bit less than one win.
I wouldn’t be opposed to the Yankees bringing back Marcus Thames if they can’t get another RH outfielder, but he really shouldn’t be in the OF and I don’t know if he’s going to be needed enough at DH to warrant the roster spot.
Speaking of DH.
| Position | Rank | Player | % | PA | avg/obp/slg | wOBA | BR | BRAR | Def | WAR |
| DH | 1 | Posada, Jorge | 72.4% | 525 | .267/.354/.458 | .354 | 69 | 7 | 0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | Rodriguez, Alex | 10.3% | 75 | .281/.372/.526 | .384 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0.3 | |
| 3 | Jeter, Derek | 10.3% | 75 | .290/.360/.406 | .342 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| 4 | Swisher, Nick | 6.9% | 50 | .260/.354/.470 | .357 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | .000/.000/.000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Total | 725 | .271/.357/.460 | .356 | 89 | 10 | 0 | 1.0 |
I restricted DH to 725 PA because the ludicrous interleague play that still infests MLB means the Yankees will have to allow their pitchers to strike out three times a game for nine games.
Jorge Posada’s bat still projects very well as a catcher. Unfortunately, as a DH it’s nothing special. A lot of catchers end up hitting better when not catching so Posada may be able to beat that projection, although I actually think his projection is too optimistic. Given his contract, the Yankees probably aren’t going to look for someone else to be their primary DH and are probably going to hope Posada can hit reasonably well. I hope he does, especially if this is his swan song. He’s been criminally underrated and should probably be a Hall of Famer, but I think he’s a long-shot.
The Yankees will also probably use DH to give some of their players a half-day off, so I threw a few of those guys in there. For the hell of it since I’m sure someone will ask, if the Yankees signed Manny Ramirez here’s how he’d project.
| Player | ramirez, manny | |||||||||||||||
| % | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | BRAR | Def | WAR |
| 80% | 455 | 119 | 26 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 63 | 81 | .313 | .419 | .573 | .425 | 83 | 32 | 0 | 3.2 |
| 65% | 452 | 116 | 25 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 61 | 81 | .306 | .407 | .552 | .412 | 78 | 28 | 0 | 2.8 |
| Baseline | 450 | 113 | 23 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 59 | 90 | .299 | .396 | .531 | .398 | 73 | 24 | 0 | 2.4 |
| 35% | 428 | 102 | 20 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 52 | 76 | .283 | .370 | .486 | .369 | 62 | 15 | 0 | 1.5 |
| 20% | 405 | 91 | 16 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 45 | 71 | .268 | .345 | .441 | .339 | 52 | 7 | 0 | 0.7 |
I think he’d probably end up closer to that 35% projection but that’s still about a one win upgrade on Posada. I don’t know if he’s worth the headaches and the drama that will come with him though, and I’m personally not a fan of the guy so I’d rather not see him in pinstripes.
Unless he’d sign for $4M for a year.
So if the Yankees add Scott Hairston they can probably improve by another win. That probably moves them into about 90 win territory.
But the real improvements to the team are probably going to have to come from the pitching staff, which will be the subject of the next post in this series.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
What If the Yankees Go in 2011 With the 40 Man Roster they Have Right Now?
With it looking like the Yankees contract negotiations with Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera aren’t going to be decided any time soon, and with Andy Pettitte still undecided about a return, I was wondering what would happen in the highly unlikely scenario that the Yankees signed no one and traded for no one and went into the season with the team they have right now.
So here’s a run-through the position players and pitching staff using my 2011 CAIRO projections.
| Player | Pos | PA | wOBA | Outs | BR | Def |
| Gardner, Brett | LF | 575 | .331 | 368 | 73 | 13 |
| Swisher, Nick | RF | 600 | .356 | 386 | 85 | 2 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 625 | .369 | 403 | 95 | 0 |
| Teixeira, Mark | 1B | 624 | .382 | 388 | 100 | 3 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 550 | .382 | 345 | 90 | -3 |
| Posada, Jorge | DH | 500 | .352 | 322 | 69 | 0 |
| Granderson, Curtis | CF | 525 | .345 | 348 | 72 | 3 |
| Montero, Jesus | C | 500 | .335 | 336 | 64 | 0 |
| Nunez, Eduardo | SS | 475 | .286 | 334 | 43 | -1 |
| Starter Total | 4974 | .350 | 3230 | 690 | 17 | |
| Player | Pos | PA | wOBA | Outs | BR | Def |
| Cervelli, Francisco | C | 275 | .303 | 185 | 27 | -1 |
| Pena, Ramiro | SS | 200 | .274 | 142 | 16 | 0 |
| Curtis, Colin | RF | 175 | .295 | 122 | 17 | -1 |
| Russo, Kevin | LF | 175 | .286 | 121 | 15 | 0 |
| Laird, Brandon | 3B | 175 | .304 | 123 | 18 | 0 |
| Corona, Reegie | 2B | 150 | .289 | 104 | 14 | 0 |
| Golson, Greg | RF | 100 | .272 | 72.8 | 9 | 0 |
| Bench Total | 1250 | .291 | 870 | 117 | -2 | |
| Team Total | 6224 | .338 | 4100 | 807 | 15 |
BR: Projected linear weights batting runs
Def: Projected runs saved compared to average defensively.
The offense doesn’t really look that good, projecting to score about 40 fewer runs than last year’s team. I’d also be hesitant about assuming they’re a +15 defense given the uncertainty of Jesus Montero and Eduardo Nunez’s defense.
The pitching staff is actually even worse off right now.
| Pitcher | Role | IP | R |
| Sabathia, C.C. | SP1 | 210 | 91 |
| Hughes, Philip | SP2 | 180 | 89 |
| Burnett, A.J. | SP3 | 170 | 95 |
| Nova, Ivan | SP4 | 150 | 94 |
| Moseley, Dustin | SP5 | 140 | 84 |
| Brackman, Andrew | SP6 | 70 | 46 |
| Noesi, Hector | SP7 | 60 | 37 |
| Igawa, Kei | SP8 | 30 | 20 |
| Starter Total | 1010 | 555 | |
| Pitcher | Role | IP | R |
| Robertson, David | CL | 75 | 35 |
| Chamberlain, Joba | SU | 80 | 41 |
| Logan, Boone | SU | 60 | 32 |
| Mitre, Sergio | MR | 60 | 35 |
| Sanchez, Romulo | MR | 50 | 31 |
| Pope, Ryan | MR | 40 | 24 |
| Garrison, Steve | MR | 40 | 23 |
| Aceves, Alfredo | LR | 25 | 12 |
| LR | 0 | ||
| Reliever Total | 430 | 232 | |
| Team Total | 1440 | 787 |
If the Yankees don’t bring back Pettitte or Rivera and don’t sign Cliff Lee, here’s what they may look like. While I doubt Kei Igawa sees any time in MLB, I’m using him as a proxy for sub-replacement level pitching.
If Alfredo Aceves can come back healthy that will help the bullpen some, but it’s still a little ugly.
Adding it up looks like this.
| Offense | 807 |
| Defense | 15 |
| Pitching | 787 |
| Pythagenpat W | 84.5 |
Pythagenpat W:Estimated Pythagenpat wins
You can subtract a win from that 84.5 estimate for every ten runs below average Montero and Nunez may be defensively. So if they’re a collective 20 runs worse than average the Yankees would be more like an 82.5 win team.
Thankfully, it’s not very likely that the Yankees will go into 2011 with this team. Can they add the 10+ wins they probably need to put themselves solidly in contention with what’s available to them? That’s the next question.
Monday, November 15, 2010
How Good Might the 2011 Yankees Be on November 15, 2010?
So now that we have projections to look at, what do they tell us?
First, let’s consider the primary starters who played in 2010 and are still under contract for 2011.
Here are their performances in 2010:
| Player | Pos | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BRAR | def | WAR |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 696 | 200 | 41 | 3 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 57 | 77 | .319 | .381 | .534 | .392 | 51 | -3 | 4.7 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 564 | 132 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 44 | 8 | 79 | 101 | .277 | .383 | .379 | .347 | 25 | 15 | 4.1 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 632 | 163 | 33 | 3 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 58 | 139 | .288 | .359 | .511 | .373 | 35 | 2 | 3.7 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 595 | 141 | 29 | 2 | 30 | 4 | 3 | 59 | 98 | .270 | .341 | .506 | .359 | 38 | -4 | 3.3 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | 524 | 115 | 17 | 7 | 24 | 12 | 2 | 53 | 116 | .247 | .324 | .468 | .340 | 27 | 5 | 3.2 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | 712 | 154 | 36 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 93 | 122 | .256 | .365 | .481 | .367 | 28 | -1 | 2.7 |
| Jorge Posada | C | 451 | 95 | 23 | 1 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 59 | 99 | .248 | .357 | .454 | .355 | 19 | -8 | 1.1 |
| Francisco Cervelli | C | 309 | 72 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 42 | .271 | .359 | .335 | .320 | 8 | -1 | 0.7 |
| Total | 4483 | 232 | 4 | 23.6 |
And here’s their CAIRO projected performance in 2011:
| Player | Pos | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BRAR | Def | WAR |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 681 | 192 | 45 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 4 | 44 | 78 | .306 | .355 | .511 | .372 | 43 | 0 | 4.2 |
| Gardner, Brett | LF | 504 | 116 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 38 | 7 | 60 | 91 | .270 | .358 | .372 | .329 | 14 | 11 | 2.5 |
| Swisher, Nick | RF | 626 | 139 | 32 | 2 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 77 | 135 | .260 | .354 | .470 | .357 | 25 | 0 | 2.5 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 594 | 143 | 27 | 1 | 32 | 11 | 3 | 69 | 105 | .281 | .372 | .526 | .384 | 41 | -3 | 3.8 |
| Granderson, Curtis | CF | 638 | 143 | 26 | 9 | 25 | 14 | 4 | 68 | 124 | .252 | .335 | .462 | .346 | 29 | 3 | 3.2 |
| Teixeira, Mark | 1B | 690 | 162 | 38 | 1 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 87 | 115 | .276 | .377 | .515 | .384 | 33 | 3 | 3.6 |
| Posada, Jorge | DH | 412 | 95 | 21 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 47 | 93 | .267 | .355 | .460 | .355 | 17 | 0 | 1.7 |
| Cervelli, Francisco | C | 292 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 47 | .255 | .326 | .347 | .303 | 5 | -1 | 0.4 |
| 4437 | 207 | 13 | 21.9 |
BRAR: Linear weights batting runs above replacement level (park and position-adjusted)
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
Def: Projected runs saved defensively compared to average
WAR: Wins above replacement level (BRAR plus Def divided by 10)
The whole replacement level thing gets a little fuzzy here since Posada’s being treated as primarily a catcher in 2010 but as a DH in 2011. So if we ignore position and just look at the seven players, we see that 2010’s collective put up a wOBA of .361 and an OBP of .360 in 4483 PA, and that the 2011 version of those same seven players would project to put up a wOBA of .359 and an OBP of .356. The 2011 version would be about 15 runs worse over a full season, which is a non-trivial, but not a massive down grade.
You may not be aware of this since it’s gone strangely unreported by the media, but Derek Jeter is a free agent. Shocking, huh? Apparently, he has yet to resign with the Yankees and no one is talking about it. This has the potential to be MAJOR.
| Player | Pos | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BRAR | Def | WAR |
| 2010 Derek Jeter | SS | 738 | 179 | 30 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 5 | 63 | 106 | .270 | .340 | .370 | .319 | 22 | -14 | 0.8 |
| 2011 CAIRO Jeter | SS | 699 | 181 | 29 | 2 | 13 | 15 | 5 | 63 | 96 | .290 | .360 | .406 | .342 | 32 | -7 | 2.4 |
Jeter had a bad year by his standards last year, but his offense was fine for a shortstop, somewhere around 22 runs better than replacement level. The bigger issue with Jeter was how you assessed his defense. UZR thought he was slightly below average, around -5. However, a combination of UZR, zone rating and John DeWan’s plus/minus were much harsher, putting Jeter around -14 defensively and making him effectively only about one win better than replacement level.
I have no idea which is closer to the truth, so even though my spreadsheet says Jeter was less than one win better than replacement level last year, I’m going to say that that was not necessarily true.
Either way, CAIRO expects Jeter to bounce back a bit in 2011 on a rate basis, but it also expects him to play a bit less. Overall it likes his chance for a reasonable rebound.
But what if? What if the Yankee decide that Jeter is asking for too much and decide to let him walk? It won’t happen, but if it did, here’s who they have on hand to replace him.
| Player | Pos | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BRAR | Def | WAR |
| Nunez, Eduardo | SS | 528 | 127 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 7 | 26 | 68 | .257 | .296 | .350 | .286 | 6 | -1 | 0.6 |
| Pena, Ramiro | SS | 324 | 72 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 20 | 57 | .244 | .290 | .324 | .274 | 1 | 3 | 0.4 |
So yeah, replacing Jeter with Nunez or Pena looks like a two win down grade in CAIRO.
I suppose we could look at possible free agent SS but there’s really no sense. Jeter will be a Yankee in 2011 and we just have to hope CAIRO knows what it’s doing.
So we’ve effectively covered everything except DH and catcher. Last year’s Yankee DH’s combined for a line of .256/.338/.440, which isn’t really all that good for a position that has no defensive value. CAIRO thinks Jorge Posada will exceed that line, but betting on a 40 year old who’s caught over 1600 games in his career to hit well and stay healthy is probably risky. The Yankees will probably use DH to rest their older regulars a bit as well, so if Posada’s reasonably healthy they should get decent production out of DH.
That leaves catcher. If Posada’s not catching, then it means some combination of Francisco Cervelli, Jesus Montero and Austin Romine may be, unless the Yankees surprise us by going after someone like John Buck.
| Player | Pos | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BRAR | Def | WAR |
| Montero, Jesus | C | 508 | 122 | 29 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 41 | 85 | .261 | .326 | .446 | .337 | 24 | 0 | 2.4 |
| Cervelli, Francisco | C | 292 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 47 | .255 | .326 | .347 | .303 | 5 | -1 | 0.4 |
| Romine, Austin | C | 502 | 112 | 25 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 94 | .238 | .281 | .362 | .283 | 6 | 0 | 0.6 |
Montero’s almost certainly the best offensive player of the bunch, and he should probably be the favorite to being the year as the starting catcher, but his defense may end up being bad enough that he can’t stick there.
Cervelli’s not a horrible catcher, and he profiles as a pretty good backup, but he’s also not someone you want to see starting half the games.
CAIRO doesn’t think Romine’s ready, but who knows with young players?
On the position player side, the Yankees’ only real questions are shortstop and catcher. There isn’t a free agent SS available even comparable to Jeter, so unless they make a bold trade he’ll be back in 2011. John Buck is sort of interesting on the catching side, but if you think Montero is going to be the catcher of the future, you probably don’t commit to him for as long as some other potential suitors might. I guess they can shore up the bench with a RH outfielder too, or bring back Marcus Thames.
So at least as of right now, I get the sense we’re not going to see anything particularly interesting happening on the position player side with this team heading into 2011.
Come on Cliff Lee I guess…
Sunday, November 14, 2010
2011 Yankee Position Player CAIRO Projections v0.1
Here are the first set of my 2011 CAIRO projections for the Yankees’ position players. I’m still eyeballing the overall projections to make sure there are no egregious errors and double-checking all my aging/park factor/regression formula so these may change slightly, but they appear pretty close to what I’d have expected.
| Player | Age | Pos | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BRAR | Def | WAR |
| Cano, Robinson | 29 | 2B | 681 | 192 | 45 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 4 | 44 | 78 | .306 | .355 | .511 | .372 | 43 | 0 | 4.2 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 36 | 3B | 594 | 143 | 27 | 1 | 32 | 11 | 3 | 69 | 105 | .281 | .372 | .526 | .384 | 41 | -3 | 3.8 |
| Teixeira, Mark | 31 | 1B | 690 | 162 | 38 | 1 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 87 | 115 | .276 | .377 | .515 | .384 | 33 | 3 | 3.6 |
| Granderson, Curtis | 30 | CF | 638 | 143 | 26 | 9 | 25 | 14 | 4 | 68 | 124 | .252 | .335 | .462 | .346 | 29 | 3 | 3.2 |
| Swisher, Nick | 31 | RF | 626 | 139 | 32 | 2 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 77 | 135 | .260 | .354 | .470 | .357 | 25 | 0 | 2.5 |
| Gardner, Brett | 28 | OF | 504 | 116 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 38 | 7 | 60 | 91 | .270 | .358 | .372 | .329 | 14 | 11 | 2.5 |
| Jeter, Derek | 37 | SS | 699 | 181 | 29 | 2 | 13 | 15 | 5 | 63 | 96 | .290 | .360 | .406 | .342 | 32 | -7 | 2.4 |
| Montero, Jesus | 22 | C | 508 | 122 | 29 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 41 | 85 | .261 | .326 | .446 | .337 | 24 | 0 | 2.4 |
| Posada, Jorge | 40 | DH | 412 | 95 | 21 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 47 | 93 | .267 | .355 | .460 | .355 | 17 | 0 | 1.7 |
| Nunez, Eduardo | 24 | SS | 528 | 127 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 7 | 26 | 68 | .257 | .296 | .350 | .286 | 6 | -1 | 0.6 |
| Romine, Austin | 23 | C | 502 | 112 | 25 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 94 | .238 | .281 | .362 | .283 | 6 | 0 | 0.6 |
| Miranda, Juan | 28 | 1B | 475 | 104 | 21 | 1 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 44 | 100 | .246 | .324 | .428 | .329 | 5 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Huffman, Chad | 26 | OF | 519 | 110 | 23 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 47 | 108 | .239 | .320 | .378 | .312 | 4 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Cervelli, Francisco | 25 | C | 292 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 47 | .255 | .326 | .347 | .303 | 5 | -1 | 0.4 |
| Corona, Reegie | 25 | 2B | 523 | 113 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 43 | 81 | .240 | .303 | .341 | .289 | 4 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Pena, Ramiro | 26 | SS | 324 | 72 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 20 | 57 | .244 | .290 | .324 | .274 | 1 | 3 | 0.4 |
| Joseph, Corban | 23 | SS | 541 | 113 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 42 | 105 | .231 | .296 | .336 | .283 | 3 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Thames, Marcus | 34 | LF | 336 | 76 | 12 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 83 | .249 | .311 | .448 | .327 | 7 | -4 | 0.3 |
| Curtis, Colin | 26 | OF | 483 | 106 | 23 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 86 | .242 | .303 | .361 | .295 | -1 | -1 | -0.1 |
| Laird, Brandon | 24 | 1B | 557 | 125 | 24 | 2 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 105 | .243 | .295 | .406 | .306 | -3 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Golson, Greg | 26 | OF | 518 | 111 | 21 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 5 | 26 | 135 | .231 | .272 | .351 | .272 | -6 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Angelini, Carmen | 23 | SS | 483 | 98 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 27 | 99 | .219 | .270 | .296 | .255 | -5 | 0 | -0.5 |
BRAR: Linear weights batting runs above replacement level (park and position-adjusted)
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
Def: Projected runs saved defensively compared to average
WAR: Wins above replacement level (BRAR plus Def divided by 10)
Defense is projected using an average of Chris Dial’s Zone Rating Runs Saved from Baseball Think Factory, Ultimate Zone Rating and John Dewan’s plus/minus runs saved, both from Fangraphs. Since Sean Smith does his own TotalZone projections as part of his CHONE projections I’ll just wait for those and then add them in as well.
If a player has not played in the majors yet, I didn’t project their defense so they are rated as average. I’m not saying I think Jesus Montero is going to play average defense, I’m saying I have no idea how good or bad his defense will be and I’m not going to try and fudge it.
I do have most of the minor leaguers projected but didn’t include all of them in this table since I’m still looking over the MLEs. Pitchers should be done this week as well, and hopefully the first set of projections for everyone will be out next week.
Anyway, now that we have this we can start to think about where the Yankees’ lineup could use some improvement and what the options are for said improvement, which I’ll start tomorrow.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
NBC New York: The Battle is On: Derek Jeter Fires Back at the Yankees
Close and Jeter want to be paid because of Jeter’s past success, a pretty wise path to choose because it obscures the fact that he doesn’t figure to have many great seasons left in him and the fact that he was average, at best, in 2010. They are going to sell his value as the face on merchandise and the YES network over his usefulness to the team on the field. By going that path and by bringing “the spirit of the champion” into things, however, it is Jeter who is overstating his own impact.
Jeter has five World Series rings because he has had the good fortune of playing with some terrific baseball players over the course of his career. He may have been the best player on a few of those teams, but he wouldn’t have won squat if not for the full complement of talent that the Yankees put in the clubhouse with him. Whatever impact Jeter has had on the Yankees—and it has been large—pales in comparison to the impact the Yankees have had on him.
I have no problem with the notion that Jeter is worth more than his on the field value would dictate, which means he probably should get paid a bit more than a similar player would in this situation. However, some of that off-the-field value is predicated on him being one of the best shortstops in the league, and that value is going to lessen when he starts playing poorly. I have a tough time imagining the casual Yankee fan giving Jeter a pass when his offense and/or defense are visibly causing the Yankees to lose games.
I’d like to believe the Yankees are going to take a hard-line approach with Jeter because frankly they’re bidding against themselves, but with the way they folded against Alex Rodriguez I’ll wait and see it before I believe it.
Obviously Jeter’s one piece of many that the Yankees are going to be looking at. According to this article by Marc Carig at NJ.com, the Yankees will be at around the same payroll in 2011 as they were in 2010.
NEW YORK—Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner said his team’s payroll will remain at roughly the same levels going into next season. If that is so, it appears the Yankees will likely have room for one major new free agent signing, with their top priority being Rangers ace Cliff Lee.
I should have a post up early next week with the first draft of the Yankees’ CAIRO projections and then we can think about what they need and how they should go about getting it.
Monday, October 25, 2010
2010 wOBA Leaders from 7th Inning On
2010 MLB wOBA Leaders from 7th Inning On (Min. 150 PA)
I haven’t checked yet, but I’m pretty sure the guy ranked 9th got his hits when his team was up or down by at least 10 runs.
All data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Friday, October 22, 2010
WSJ.com: Same Old Ghost Story
Through the first five games of this series, the Texas Rangers have succeeded for the most part in stifling Mr. Rodriguez, the Yankees third baseman. He has just three hits in 17 at-bats for a .176 batting average and hasn’t hit a home run.
Mr. Rodriguez, who earlier this year became the youngest player to reach the 600-home run mark, was supposed to have buried the notion that he wilted amid the pressure of October baseball. He batted .365 with six home runs in 15 postseason games last year, and Yankees manager Joe Girardi said Thursday that this season has been easier for Mr. Rodriguez because he hasn’t had to answer similar questions about his playoff performance.
The only thing surprising about this article is that it took this long to appear.
Friday, October 15, 2010
2010 ALCS Game 1 Complaint Thread
This game sucked ruled.
I’m not sure where to start. After a really bad start by CC and a WOE-ful job by the offense, I had pretty much given up. When Joba Chamberlain walked Nelson Cruz with one out in the fifth I figured we’d get one of his patented implosions, but he got out of it.
When Dustin Moseley got the call to relieve Joba, I pretty much figured it was done, but Moseley was outstanding, retiring everyone he faced aside from an E-5 over two scoreless innings. Kerry Wood’s eighth inning started off with a four pitch walk to Ian Kinsler, but Kinsler got picked off and from there Wood was great.
And of course, the best out-getter in the history of MLB’s postseason did his job, with the help of a great play by Mark Teixeira on a sacrifice bunt by Elvis Andrus. Mo vs. Josh Hamilton with the tying run on second and two outs had the potential to be some of the best drama baseball can offer, but Mo spared us by retiring Hamilton on one pitch.
The bullpen was great in relief of Sabathia, but this was the offense’s night.
Remember when Robinson Cano was both a bad hitter with runners on base and in the postseason? Me either. His solo HR in the seventh seemed meaningless at the time, but it sure ended up being huge.
And while it’s generally not beneficial to slide into first base, in this case by doing it Brett Gardner was able to elude a tag and reach base safely leading off the eighth, which allowed him to score on a Derek Jeter double to cut the deficit to 5-2. Jeter’s double drove out Texas starter C.J. Wilson, who pitched very well until the eighth.
Two walks by Nick Swisher and Mark Teixeira against Darren Oliver were then followed by an Alex Rodriguez single off Darren O’Day that drove in two runs and cut the deficit to 5-4, which again sent Ron Washington to his pen to bring in lefty Clay Rapada to pitch to Robinson Cano. It was the right move on paper, but Cano has killed lefties this year and tied the game with a sharp single and brought up Marcus Thames.
I have no idea why Ron Washington did not bring a right-hander in here rather than Derek Holland, although it’s likely the Yankees would have pinch-hit for Thames with Lance Berkman. It still doesn’t make sense to have brought in a lefty to face Thames, Thames fell behind 1-2 then fouled a pitch and took one in the dirt before dumping a soft single to LF which brought in Cano with the go-ahead run.
I’m going to pretend Nick Swisher didn’t bunt in the ninth for health reasons. My own health.
So complain away.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
2010 ALCS Preview: Rangers vs. Yankees
Rangers in 3 or 4?
Well, we’re down to two teams in the quest for who gets to lose to the Phillies in the World Series.
The Rangers have returned to the postseason for the first time since 1999 and have won a postseason series for the first time in their history, beating the AL East champion Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS.
The Yankees weren’t even good enough to beat out the Rays for the AL East and instead had to back into the playoffs as the wild card. To put this simply:
A) The Rays are better than the Yankees as evidenced by winning the AL East
B) The Rangers are better than the Rays as evidenced by winning their playoff series against them
Despite this, they are actually going to play the games, so maybe the unexpected will happen.
Here’s how the Rangers’ position player project.
| Lineup | Pos | 2010 OBP | 2010 wOBA | Proj OBP | Proj wOBA | PA | Outs | BR | Def |
| Elvis Andrus | SS | .335 | .296 | .310 | .309 | 35 | 24 | 3.52 | 0.2 |
| Michael Young | 3B | .331 | .336 | .340 | .341 | 35 | 23 | 4.51 | -0.6 |
| Josh Hamilton | CF | .411 | .444 | .366 | .392 | 35 | 22 | 6.06 | 0.0 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | DH | .346 | .361 | .355 | .374 | 35 | 23 | 5.5 | 0.0 |
| Nelson Cruz | RF | .372 | .405 | .343 | .374 | 35 | 23 | 5.49 | 0.5 |
| Ian Kinsler | 2B | .380 | .357 | .352 | .357 | 32 | 21 | 4.59 | 0.2 |
| Mitch Moreland | 1B | .360 | .362 | .319 | .316 | 21 | 14 | 2.25 | 0.1 |
| Bengie Molina | C | .292 | .275 | .286 | .302 | 20 | 14 | 1.85 | 0.0 |
| Julio Borbon | LF | .304 | .287 | .314 | .297 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.0 |
| Andres Blanco | 2B | .326 | .298 | .311 | .297 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.0 |
| David Murphy | LF | .355 | .356 | .334 | .340 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.0 |
| Cristian Guzman | SS | .308 | .289 | .305 | .302 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.0 |
| Chris Davis | 1B | .279 | .267 | .286 | .319 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Matt Treanor | C | .285 | .266 | .289 | .277 | 6 | 4 | 0.44 | 0.0 |
| Jorge Cantu | 1B | .301 | .302 | .317 | .330 | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
PA: Plate appearances
Outs: calculated as (1- Proj OBP) times PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs over series estimate of playing time
Def: Projected defense over series estimate of playing time using an average of DRS, TZ, UZR and ZR
The Rangers offense isn’t great, but they’ve got some pretty good hitters and and a strong defensive team. One thing that they may benefit them is that they project slightly better against LHP.
| Vs. L | PA | wOBA | BR | Outs | |
| Elvis Andrus | 5.0 | .296 | 0.4 | 3.4 | |
| Michael Young | 4.7 | .356 | 0.7 | 3.0 | |
| Josh Hamilton | 4.0 | .365 | 0.6 | 2.6 | |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 4.0 | .391 | 0.7 | 2.5 | |
| Nelson Cruz | 4.0 | .387 | 0.7 | 2.6 | |
| Ian Kinsler | 4.0 | .378 | 0.6 | 2.5 | |
| Jorge Cantu | 4.0 | .340 | 0.5 | 2.7 | |
| Bengie Molina | 4.0 | .323 | 0.5 | 2.8 | |
| Jeff Francoeur | 4.0 | .331 | 0.5 | 2.9 | |
| Total | 37.7 | .350 | 5.2 | 25.0 | |
| Vs. R | PA | wOBA | BR | Outs | |
| Elvis Andrus | 5.0 | .278 | 0.4 | 3.5 | |
| Michael Young | 4.5 | .335 | 0.6 | 3.0 | |
| Josh Hamilton | 4.0 | .413 | 0.8 | 2.5 | |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 4.0 | .367 | 0.6 | 2.6 | |
| Nelson Cruz | 4.0 | .371 | 0.6 | 2.6 | |
| Ian Kinsler | 4.0 | .350 | 0.5 | 2.6 | |
| Mitch Moreland | 4.0 | .357 | 0.6 | 2.6 | |
| Bengie Molina | 4.0 | .292 | 0.3 | 2.9 | |
| Julio Borbon | 4.0 | .301 | 0.4 | 2.7 | |
| Total | 37.5 | .339 | 4.8 | 25.0 |
I’m assuming they would play Jeff Francoeur and Jorge Cantu against lefties since they project better than Julio Borbon and Mitch Moreland, but the Rangers may have reasons for not doing that. Even if they don’t, they still project better versus lefties, which is good for them since the Yankees would be starting lefties in four of the potential seven games.
Truth be told, the pitching staff is where the Rangers really shined in 2010. Here’s how they project.
| Pitcher | Role | 2010 RA | 2010 FIP | Proj RA | Proj FIP | IP | R |
| C.J. Wilson | SP1 | 3.66 | 3.59 | 3.93 | 3.68 | 13 | 5.7 |
| Colby Lewis | SP2 | 4.04 | 3.51 | 4.70 | 4.03 | 13 | 6.8 |
| Cliff Lee | SP3 | 3.56 | 2.59 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 15 | 6.2 |
| Tommy Hunter | SP4 | 3.87 | 4.99 | 5.19 | 4.98 | 5 | 2.9 |
| Neftali Feliz | CL | 2.73 | 2.97 | 3.51 | 3.06 | 4 | 1.6 |
| Darren O’Day | SU | 2.18 | 3.58 | 3.26 | 3.61 | 4 | 1.4 |
| Darren Oliver | MR | 2.97 | 2.64 | 3.41 | 3.43 | 4 | 1.5 |
| Derek Holland | MR | 4.71 | 4.04 | 5.94 | 4.63 | 2 | 1.3 |
| Alexi Ogando | MR | 1.33 | 3.16 | 3.75 | 3.77 | 2 | 0.8 |
| Dustin Nippert | MR | 4.37 | 4.95 | 5.47 | 4.97 | 1 | 0.6 |
2010/Proj RA: 2010/projected run allowed per nine innings
2010/Proj FIP: 2010/projected Fielding Independent Pitching
IP: Estimated innings pitched in this series
R: Estimated runs allowed in this series (Projected RA divided by nine times IP)
Obviously, we all know about Cliff Lee, the greatest postseason pitcher ever. Lee’s not scheduled to start until Game 3 though, with C.J. Wilson getting the nod in the opener and Colby Lewis following up in Game 2.
Wilson’s a lefty who was primarily a reliever the last few years, but was moved into the rotation this year and did very well. He may not be 3.35 ERA good, but he’s good.
Lewis was a pretty hot prospect a few years ago but put up a 6.71 ERA from 2002-2007 before winding up in Japan, where he pitched for the Hiroshima Carp in 2008 and 2009. Lewis pitched very well there and then made a triumphant return to MLB and put up a very good year. He doesn’t throw as hard as he did when he first came up, but he’s shown an improved slider and better command. His peripherals are in line with his performance too, so he looks like he’s a legitimately good pitcher now.
Cliff Lee has NEVER lost a postseason game. EVER. Think about how amazing that is. No one has every faced Cliff Lee in a postseason game and beaten him. In the entire history of baseball.
Seriously, we know Lee’s good, and the Yankees are probably going to have to beat him at least once if they want a shot at advancing.
I’m not sure if the Rangers will go with Tommy Hunter as their fourth starter, but it could be him or Matt Harrison I guess. Whomever it is, he’ll be better than A.J. Burnett at least.
Here are the Yankees’s position player projections. They’re the same as they were for the ALDS aside from adjusting the playing time to reflect a seven game series.
| Lineup | Pos | 2010 OBP | 2010 wOBA | Proj OBP | Proj wOBA | PA | Outs | BR | Def |
| Derek Jeter | SS | .339 | .322 | .361 | .346 | 30 | 19 | 3.99 | -0.4 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | .357 | .370 | .353 | .359 | 30 | 19 | 4.34 | 0.1 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | .366 | .369 | .372 | .388 | 30 | 19 | 5.09 | 0.2 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | .341 | .360 | .369 | .388 | 30 | 19 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | .382 | .394 | .356 | .376 | 30 | 19 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| Jorge Posada | C | .358 | .358 | .361 | .367 | 26 | 17 | 3.93 | -0.1 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | .323 | .343 | .334 | .348 | 25 | 17 | 3.37 | 0.2 |
| Lance Berkman | DH | .368 | .350 | .381 | .384 | 20 | 12 | 3.32 | 0.0 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | .379 | .358 | .356 | .325 | 20 | 13 | 2.3 | 0.4 |
| Francisco Cervelli | C | .350 | .311 | .314 | .296 | 5 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.0 |
| Marcus Thames | DH | .352 | .364 | .310 | .340 | 16 | 11 | 2.05 | 0.0 |
| Austin Kearns | RF | .351 | .336 | .335 | .326 | 5 | 3 | 0.58 | 0.0 |
| Ramiro Pena | SS | .256 | .237 | .296 | .274 | 3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.0 |
| Greg Golson | RF | .261 | .226 | .265 | .268 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.1 |
There’s really not much I can tell you here that you don’t already know. Expect to see Thames against lefties and Berkman against righties at DH, and I have a hunch that Francisco Cervelli will get a start with Burnett since they had such good chemistry this year.
And the pitching projections, again just adjusted for a seven game series.
| Pitcher | Role | 2010 RA | 2010 FIP | Proj RA | Proj FIP | IP | R |
| CC Sabathia | SP1 | 3.48 | 3.55 | 3.48 | 3.39 | 14 | 5.4 |
| Phil Hughes | SP2 | 4.24 | 4.29 | 4.56 | 4.12 | 12 | 6.1 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP3 | 3.63 | 3.96 | 4.35 | 3.97 | 13 | 6.3 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP4 | 5.69 | 4.81 | 5.11 | 4.68 | 5 | 2.8 |
| Mariano Rivera | CL | 2.10 | 2.85 | 2.43 | 2.77 | 4 | 1.1 |
| David Robertson | SU | 3.54 | 3.54 | 3.97 | 3.39 | 4 | 1.8 |
| Kerry Wood | MR | 3.33 | 4.09 | 3.99 | 3.95 | 4 | 1.8 |
| Joba Chamberlain | MR | 4.58 | 2.94 | 4.70 | 3.94 | 3 | 1.6 |
| Boone Logan | MR | 2.97 | 3.73 | 4.55 | 4.24 | 3 | 1.5 |
| Sergio Mitre | MR | 3.91 | 4.79 | 5.21 | 4.52 | 1 | 0.6 |
| Dustin Moseley | MR | 4.77 | 5.81 | 5.88 | 5.53 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Total | 63 | 28.9 | |||||
| 63 |
The Yankees will go with CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, Andy Pettitte and Burnett in the first four scheduled games, which sets up Sabathia, Hughes and Pettitte to pitch in Games 5-7 if necessary. Expect to see most of the relief innings going to Mo, Kerry Wood, Dave Robertson and Boone Logan primarily, perhaps with some Joba Chamberlain mixed in.
On paper, the Yankees are probably the better team. However, if we factor in the fact that the Rangers are better against LHP and the Yankees are worse against LHP, that narrows the gap some. Since the Rangers did the honorable thing by winning their division, they get home field advantage in this series, which narrows the gap a hair more.
I received an email asking me about this article at Fangraphs by Dave Cameron saying that there was no difference in win probability between Cliff Lee starting Games 1 and 5 versus 3 and 7 and running some simulations to show that it’s false. The only problem is, it’s not false. A team’s probability of winning a series is the sum of their probabilities of winning each game, and the order doesn’t matter, assuming playing time is the same. If you want to argue that starting Lee earlier means you have the potential to use him more later in the series, then I suppose that’s possible, but aside from that, it doesn’t matter which games he starts.
| Team | Offense | Defense | Pitching | Pythagenpat | p162 |
| Rangers | 35.2 | 0.4 | 28.9 | .603 | 98 |
| VS | |||||
| Yankees | 39.6 | 0.3 | 28.9 | .647 | 105 |
Pythagenpat: Estimated win percentage based on projected offense/defense + pitching, adjusted for home field advantage
p162: Pythagenpat times 162 games (full season win equivalency)
Anyway, based on these depth charts and accounting for HFA, the Rangers look like around a 98 win team and the Yankees look like around a 105 win team. So what happens if they play the ALCS 10,000 times?
Rangers: 45.2%
Yankees: 54.8%
Which is all just a fancy way of saying Rangers in 3.
Monday, October 4, 2010
How Strong Are the 2010 Yankees Heading Into the Postseason? (Position Player Edition)
Now that the regular season is wrapped up, we can think about how the Yankees stack up in a short series and get a better feel for how they match up against the Twins.
As I tend to beat to death, we need to understand that what the players did in the current season should only be part of our assessment of their true talent level. The random fluctuations that happen during a season can skew our perception of how good or bad a player is. For that reason, I’m going to use projections for the postseason series previews instead of the actual 2010 data.
By doing this, I can:
a) Account for anomalously good or bad performances that are not likely repeatable.
b) Acount for the fact that the team that played over the 162 games is not the team that will be playing in a short series. If we want to think about how good the Yankees’ current 25 man roster is, there’s nothing useful in including the performances by people like Randy Winn, Colin Curtis, Kevin Russo or Chan Ho Park. So any analysis based on 2010 Pythagorean performance or what have you is woefully incomplete in my opinion.
That being said, projections are inherently limited. While the general principle behind them is essentially right for the body of professional players as a whole, they will not necessarily capture the nuances of a player’s performance in its entirety. If a player has suffered an actual physical change in his talent that has changed his ability to do some of the things he did prior to the year, the projection for that player is going to be wrong. We try to account for that by making sure we weigh recent performance most heavily.
So for the CAIRO projections that follow, be aware they are based on about 40% 2010, 60% 2007-2009 for position players. For pitchers I weigh recent performance a bit more heavily, around 45%.
First up, here are the Yankee position players’ offensive projections.
| Lineup | Pos | 2010 OBP | 2010 wOBA | Proj OBP | Proj wOBA | PA | Outs | BR | Def |
| Derek Jeter | SS | .339 | .322 | .361 | .346 | 21 | 13 | 3 | -0.3 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | .357 | .370 | .353 | .359 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0.1 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | .366 | .369 | .372 | .388 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0.1 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | .341 | .360 | .369 | .388 | 20 | 13 | 3 | -0.1 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | .382 | .394 | .356 | .376 | 20 | 13 | 3 | -0.1 |
| Jorge Posada | C | .358 | .358 | .361 | .367 | 15 | 10 | 2 | -0.1 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | .323 | .343 | .334 | .348 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0.1 |
| Lance Berkman | DH | .368 | .350 | .381 | .384 | 20 | 12 | 3 | 0.0 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | .379 | .358 | .356 | .325 | 20 | 13 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Francisco Cervelli | C | .350 | .311 | .314 | .296 | 11 | 10 | 1 | -0.1 |
| Marcus Thames | DH | .352 | .364 | .310 | .340 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Austin Kearns | RF | .351 | .336 | .335 | .326 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Ramiro Pena | SS | .256 | .237 | .296 | .274 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
PA: Plate appearances
Outs: calculated as (1- Proj OBP) times PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs over series estimate of playing time
Def: Projected defense over series estimate of playing time using an average of DRS, TZ, UZR and ZR (links at the bottom)
This is a rough depth chart based on assuming a five game series and assuming 25 outs made while batting per game. I’ve shown the 2010 actual OBP/wOBA as well as the projections. In the picture of a series, you’re looking at a total of about 27 runs in five games, roughly equal to an 865 run full season offense. I’ll get into the defense thing in more detail so ignore that for now.
This depth chart with the 2010 actual data would put up a wOBA of .354. Using the projection data instead puts it to .358. That’s less than a run’s worth of difference over 200 PA.
The other thing we need to think about is platooning. In the postseason, understanding how two teams match up is particularly crucial. If a team that is more susceptible to LHP is facing a team with the ability to throw several lefties against them, they’ll have a more difficult time than they would against an equally talented team which is not able to exploit a platoon advantage. So here’s how the Yankees primary starting lineup project overall as well as against LHP and RHP.
| Player | Overall | |||
| PA | wOBA | BR | Outs | |
| Derek Jeter | 5.0 | .346 | 0.7 | 3.2 |
| Nick Swisher | 5.0 | .359 | 0.7 | 3.2 |
| Mark Teixeira | 5.0 | .388 | 0.8 | 3.1 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 4.0 | .388 | 0.7 | 2.5 |
| Robinson Cano | 4.0 | .376 | 0.6 | 2.6 |
| Jorge Posada | 4.0 | .367 | 0.6 | 2.6 |
| Curtis Granderson | 4.0 | .348 | 0.5 | 2.7 |
| Lance Berkman | 4.0 | .384 | 0.7 | 2.5 |
| Brett Gardner | 4.0 | .325 | 0.5 | 2.6 |
| Total | 39.0 | .365 | 5.8 | 25.0 |
| Vs. L | PA | wOBA | BR | Outs |
| Derek Jeter | 5.0 | .365 | 0.7 | 3.1 |
| Nick Swisher | 5.0 | .370 | 0.8 | 3.2 |
| Mark Teixeira | 4.7 | .394 | 0.8 | 2.9 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 4.0 | .393 | 0.7 | 2.5 |
| Robinson Cano | 4.0 | .361 | 0.6 | 2.6 |
| Jorge Posada | 4.0 | .370 | 0.6 | 2.5 |
| Curtis Granderson | 4.0 | .298 | 0.4 | 2.9 |
| Lance Berkman | 4.0 | .339 | 0.5 | 2.7 |
| Brett Gardner | 4.0 | .308 | 0.4 | 2.7 |
| Total | 38.7 | .357 | 5.5 | 25.0 |
| Vs. R | PA | wOBA | BR | Outs |
| Derek Jeter | 5.0 | .336 | 0.6 | 3.2 |
| Nick Swisher | 5.0 | .357 | 0.7 | 3.3 |
| Mark Teixeira | 5.0 | .383 | 0.8 | 3.2 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 4.2 | .383 | 0.7 | 2.7 |
| Robinson Cano | 4.0 | .386 | 0.7 | 2.5 |
| Jorge Posada | 4.0 | .365 | 0.6 | 2.6 |
| Curtis Granderson | 4.0 | .364 | 0.6 | 2.6 |
| Lance Berkman | 4.0 | .396 | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| Brett Gardner | 4.0 | .334 | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| Total | 39.2 | .366 | 5.9 | 25.0 |
This version of the Yankee lineup is a bit more susceptible to LHP. The difference between a team that scores 5.9 runs per game and one that scores 5.5 runs per game is about five wins over a full season, although it depends on the run environment and the team’s pitching/defense. The Twins are going to have Francisco Liriano potentially going twice, and they may start Brian Duensing as well, and they have Jose Mijares and Brian Fuentes in the pen as useful lefty relievers so that could be an issue.
The good news is the Yankees can improve the lineup versus lefties by a bit if they replace Lance Berkman with Marcus Thames. They go to 5.6 runs a game with a straight swap. They may also want to consider replacing Granderson with Austin Kearns, although with the way the two are playing right now what may seem to be an upgrade on paper isn’t necessarily going to be one.
Now, we need to consider defense. It’s probably been apparent to regular readers that I haven’t talked as much about defensive metrics as I have in the past. The reason for that is the more I learn about the defensive metrics we have, the more I realize that they have some serious limitations that we need to be cognizant of.
That doesn’t mean we should ignore defense all together, it just means we need to probably consider any and all metrics that are based on a solid methodology and temper how much we believe any of them in either isolation or in the aggregate.So, here’s how the Yankee defenders look based on a weighted average of the last five seasons using Chris Dial’s Zone Rating system(ZR), Fangraph’s Ultimate Zone Rating(UZR), John Dewan’s Defensive Runs Saved(DRS) and Sean Smith’s TotalZone. While the data is available to go back to 2002 in all of these metrics, player fielding ability changes enough that I don’t think there’s much use in going back further than that.
| Player | Pos | Def |
| Derek Jeter | SS | -9 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 3 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | 5 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | -3 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | -2 |
| Jorge Posada | C | -4 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | 4 |
| Lance Berkman | DH | 0 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 16 |
| Total | 10 |
These are the full season equivalents of how many runs each player would project to save compared to an average defender. As a team they’re a bit better than average, with the OF being the strong point. I think Cano’s probably better than his projection right now, but I also think Jeter may be worse, but overall defense isn’t a weakness, which is kind of nice after years of it being one.
Last year, the same basic analysis had the Yankees at an estimated 28.6 runs scored over a five game series. With the pitching staff that was projected they were equivalent to about a 107 win team. This year’s team looks more like a 26.7 run team. While a two run difference may not seem like a big deal, pro-rated over a full season it’s around a 60 run difference.This year’s team projects a bit worse offensively, and a hair better defensively, but I think it’s fair to say this year’s position players are not as good as last year’s were.
Of course, we do also have to consider the pitching staff, so that’ll be the next post.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Yankees.com: Vazquez roughed up by Blue Jays
TORONTO—If this was Javier Vazquez’s audition for a postseason role, he is not likely to get a call back after the Blue Jays beat the Yankees, 8-4, before 33,143 at Rogers Centre.
It was a happy final home game for Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston, who was honored in a pregame ceremony.
Starting in place of Andy Pettitte, who was bumped to Friday after the Yankees clinched a playoff spot Tuesday, Vazquez (10-10) was hammered for seven runs and 10 hits, including three home runs in 4 2/3 innings Wednesday.
He put the Yankees in a 7-0 hole. But third baseman Alex Rodriguez led off the sixth against Brett Cecil (15-7) with his 30th homer of the season. It is the 14th time in his Major League career in which he has had at least 30 homers and 100 RBIs, which extends his record. It is the 13th consecutive season in which Rodriguez has hit 30 homers, tieing Barry Bonds.
I thought Vazquez pitched pretty well if you remove the 12 baserunners he allowed out of the 24 batters he faced.
And hmm, Rodriguez tying Bonds? When will the scourge of PEDs end?
If the Yankees had any shot at the division they probably pissed it way by losing twice to Toronto while the Rays dropped two to the Orioles. Even though YES insists on the saying the Rays have a ‘half game’ lead on the Yankees, it’s a 1.5 game lead, because the also have the edge in the season series. So at this point the Yankees need to sweep Boston and have the Rays lose two of four to Kansas City if they want the division.
Good luck with all that.
First Draft of the Postseason Roster
I still need to run my projections and do this with more effort, but I figured we could start goofing around with a what a potential 25 man roster for the postseason could look like.
First, here are the locks:
Starting Pitchers (4)
Sabathia
Pettitte
Hughes
Burnett
Relief Pitchers (5)
Mo
Robertson
Wood
Chamberlain
Logan
Catchers (2)
Posada
Cervelli
Infielders (4)
Cano
Jeter
Teixeira
Rodriguez
Outfielders (3)
Gardner
Granderson
Swisher
DH (2)
Berkman
Thames
That’s 20, which leaves five spots open to fill out the bullpen and bench. They’re probably going to carry at least one long reliever, and the best candidate for that is probably Javier Vazquez. If they’re playing Minnesota, they may want to take Royce Ring as a second lefty to deal with Jim Thome. Against Texas it’s less of an issue as most of their best players are RH. I really think they should try Nova out of the pen a couple of times during the last few games and see if he can be a second long man, one with a fastball that can crack 88 mph.
They’re almost certainly going to take one of Ramiro Pena/Eduardo Nunez and possibly both. Although Thames is in theory a candidate for the outfield, if they’re smart they’ll try to avoid putting him out there at all costs. 0 So that probably opens up a spot for Greg Golson as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner. Update: I forgot about Austin Kearns, he’d probably get this spot instead of Golson.
So the 20 locks plus Vazquez, Ring, one of Pena/Nunez and Kearns leaves one open spot. I’d like to see Nova get it.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Gaps Between Projected wOBA and Actual wOBA through September 22, 2010
| rank | player | team | pa | a_woba | p_woba | diff |
| 1 | Jose Bautista | Blue Jays | 633 | .416 | .320 | 52.7 |
| 2 | Josh Hamilton | Rangers | 558 | .442 | .353 | 43.5 |
| 3 | Adrian Beltre | Red Sox | 607 | .396 | .326 | 36.7 |
| 4 | Carlos Gonzalez | Rockies | 596 | .413 | .343 | 36.3 |
| 5 | Paul Konerko | White Sox | 600 | .416 | .349 | 35.1 |
| 6 | Aubrey Huff | Giants | 623 | .384 | .322 | 33.6 |
| 7 | Jason Heyward | Braves | 578 | .386 | .332 | 27.4 |
| 8 | Alex Gonzalez | - - - | 601 | .330 | .280 | 26.0 |
| 9 | Brennan Boesch | Tigers | 483 | .334 | .273 | 25.6 |
| 10 | Joey Votto | Reds | 620 | .433 | .386 | 25.4 |
| 11 | Andres Torres | Giants | 535 | .355 | .306 | 23.1 |
| 12 | Austin Jackson | Tigers | 624 | .338 | .299 | 20.9 |
| 13 | Carlos Ruiz | Phillies | 408 | .373 | .318 | 19.7 |
| 14 | Robinson Cano | Yankees | 647 | .397 | .362 | 19.7 |
| 15 | Ryan Zimmerman | Nationals | 599 | .389 | .352 | 19.2 |
| 16 | Scott Rolen | Reds | 511 | .376 | .334 | 18.8 |
| 17 | Starlin Castro | Cubs | 459 | .339 | .292 | 18.7 |
| 18 | Omar Infante | Braves | 457 | .352 | .307 | 18.1 |
| 19 | Troy Tulowitzki | Rockies | 479 | .413 | .370 | 18.0 |
| 20 | Miguel Cabrera | Tigers | 625 | .434 | .402 | 17.2 |
| 21 | Colby Rasmus | Cardinals | 489 | .375 | .336 | 16.5 |
| 22 | Rafael Furcal | Dodgers | 403 | .361 | .315 | 16.1 |
| 23 | Vernon Wells | Blue Jays | 601 | .355 | .325 | 15.8 |
| 24 | Adrian Gonzalez | Padres | 644 | .398 | .370 | 15.8 |
| 25 | Dan Uggla | Marlins | 624 | .375 | .346 | 15.6 |
| 26 | Delmon Young | Twins | 570 | .349 | .318 | 15.5 |
| 27 | Jayson Werth | Phillies | 623 | .389 | .361 | 15.5 |
| 28 | Daric Barton | Athletics | 628 | .361 | .333 | 15.0 |
| 29 | Brett Gardner | Yankees | 530 | .350 | .319 | 14.5 |
| 30 | Carl Crawford | Rays | 613 | .360 | .334 | 14.0 |
| 31 | Corey Hart | Brewers | 556 | .362 | .333 | 13.9 |
| 32 | Nick Swisher | Yankees | 588 | .377 | .350 | 13.5 |
| 33 | Nelson Cruz | Rangers | 405 | .397 | .360 | 13.2 |
| 34 | Rickie Weeks | Brewers | 699 | .361 | .339 | 13.2 |
| 35 | Jeff Keppinger | Astros | 528 | .334 | .307 | 12.4 |
| 36 | Angel Pagan | Mets | 581 | .338 | .314 | 12.3 |
| 37 | Neil Walker | Pirates | 414 | .352 | .319 | 12.0 |
| 38 | Ian Desmond | Nationals | 517 | .317 | .291 | 11.5 |
| 39 | Kelly Johnson | Diamondbacks | 624 | .366 | .345 | 11.5 |
| 40 | Martin Prado | Braves | 628 | .352 | .331 | 11.5 |
| 41 | Casey McGehee | Brewers | 615 | .341 | .320 | 11.5 |
| 42 | John Buck | Blue Jays | 401 | .331 | .300 | 10.7 |
| 43 | Kevin Youkilis | Red Sox | 435 | .416 | .388 | 10.5 |
| 44 | Elvis Andrus | Rangers | 621 | .304 | .286 | 9.5 |
| 45 | Roger Bernadina | Nationals | 419 | .311 | .286 | 9.2 |
| 46 | Josh Willingham | Nationals | 451 | .373 | .350 | 9.2 |
| 47 | Luke Scott | Orioles | 486 | .381 | .362 | 8.1 |
| 48 | Mark Ellis | Athletics | 438 | .320 | .299 | 7.9 |
| 49 | Jorge Posada | Yankees | 425 | .372 | .351 | 7.6 |
| 50 | David Eckstein | Padres | 433 | .302 | .282 | 7.5 |
| 51 | Juan Uribe | Giants | 534 | .319 | .303 | 7.4 |
| 52 | David Murphy | Rangers | 447 | .348 | .329 | 7.4 |
| 53 | Alex Rios | White Sox | 602 | .345 | .331 | 7.3 |
| 54 | Matt Holliday | Cardinals | 629 | .397 | .384 | 7.3 |
| 55 | Austin Kearns | - - - | 447 | .336 | .318 | 7.1 |
| 56 | Michael Bourn | Astros | 599 | .312 | .300 | 6.5 |
| 57 | Stephen Drew | Diamondbacks | 588 | .344 | .332 | 6.5 |
| 58 | Torii Hunter | Angels | 597 | .362 | .350 | 6.2 |
| 59 | Brandon Inge | Tigers | 537 | .318 | .304 | 6.2 |
| 60 | Marlon Byrd | Cubs | 595 | .345 | .334 | 5.7 |
| 61 | Adam Dunn | Nationals | 611 | .381 | .372 | 4.8 |
| 62 | Brian McCann | Braves | 529 | .370 | .359 | 4.6 |
| 63 | Evan Longoria | Rays | 652 | .375 | .367 | 4.3 |
| 64 | Freddy Sanchez | Giants | 436 | .319 | .308 | 4.3 |
| 65 | Hideki Matsui | Angels | 533 | .355 | .347 | 4.1 |
| 66 | Miguel Olivo | Rockies | 410 | .334 | .323 | 4.1 |
| 67 | Jose Guillen | - - - | 544 | .324 | .316 | 3.9 |
| 68 | Ichiro Suzuki | Mariners | 672 | .339 | .332 | 3.9 |
| 69 | Jerry Hairston | Padres | 472 | .289 | .281 | 3.6 |
| 70 | Jay Bruce | Reds | 542 | .354 | .347 | 3.5 |
| 71 | Cliff Pennington | Athletics | 523 | .302 | .294 | 3.5 |
| 72 | Gaby Sanchez | Marlins | 591 | .355 | .349 | 3.4 |
| 73 | Ian Kinsler | Rangers | 415 | .363 | .354 | 3.3 |
| 74 | Yuniesky Betancourt | Royals | 538 | .298 | .293 | 2.7 |
| 75 | Blake DeWitt | - - - | 456 | .313 | .306 | 2.7 |
| 76 | Ronny Cedeno | Pirates | 450 | .287 | .281 | 2.5 |
| 77 | Brandon Phillips | Reds | 646 | .328 | .324 | 2.5 |
| 78 | Scott Podsednik | - - - | 585 | .322 | .319 | 1.7 |
| 79 | Shane Victorino | Phillies | 611 | .333 | .330 | 1.5 |
| 80 | Ryan Doumit | Pirates | 436 | .332 | .329 | 1.2 |
| 81 | Lyle Overbay | Blue Jays | 563 | .336 | .334 | 1.2 |
| 82 | Alfonso Soriano | Cubs | 501 | .342 | .340 | 1.2 |
| 83 | Andre Ethier | Dodgers | 546 | .366 | .364 | 1.1 |
| 84 | Alexei Ramirez | White Sox | 582 | .320 | .318 | 1.0 |
| 85 | Andrew McCutchen | Pirates | 599 | .350 | .348 | 1.0 |
| 86 | Adam Jones | Orioles | 577 | .339 | .337 | 0.7 |
| 87 | Travis Hafner | Indians | 429 | .356 | .355 | 0.5 |
| 88 | Will Venable | Padres | 414 | .323 | .322 | 0.5 |
| 89 | Lastings Milledge | Pirates | 410 | .317 | .316 | 0.4 |
| 90 | Placido Polanco | Phillies | 572 | .323 | .322 | 0.3 |
| 91 | Shin-Soo Choo | Indians | 604 | .383 | .383 | 0.1 |
| 92 | Russell Branyan | - - - | 427 | .346 | .347 | -0.4 |
| 93 | Johnny Damon | Tigers | 571 | .337 | .339 | -0.6 |
| 94 | Fred Lewis | Blue Jays | 479 | .328 | .329 | -0.7 |
| 95 | Orlando Cabrera | Reds | 508 | .295 | .298 | -1.0 |
| 96 | Jose Reyes | Mets | 555 | .329 | .331 | -1.2 |
| 97 | Orlando Hudson | Twins | 517 | .322 | .325 | -1.4 |
| 98 | Bobby Abreu | Angels | 632 | .347 | .350 | -1.4 |
| 99 | David Ortiz | Red Sox | 565 | .375 | .378 | -1.5 |
| 100 | Raul Ibanez | Phillies | 596 | .348 | .351 | -1.6 |
| 101 | Juan Pierre | White Sox | 672 | .300 | .303 | -1.8 |
| 102 | Billy Butler | Royals | 624 | .374 | .378 | -1.9 |
| 103 | Jonny Gomes | Reds | 536 | .330 | .335 | -2.3 |
| 104 | Michael Young | Rangers | 671 | .337 | .341 | -2.6 |
| 105 | Drew Stubbs | Reds | 543 | .326 | .332 | -2.8 |
| 106 | Curtis Granderson | Yankees | 485 | .339 | .346 | -3.0 |
| 107 | A.J. Pierzynski | White Sox | 475 | .302 | .310 | -3.2 |
| 108 | Trevor Crowe | Indians | 433 | .288 | .297 | -3.2 |
| 109 | Michael Cuddyer | Twins | 636 | .332 | .338 | -3.3 |
| 110 | Jason Kendall | Royals | 484 | .283 | .292 | -3.8 |
| 111 | David Wright | Mets | 626 | .366 | .373 | -3.9 |
| 112 | Ian Stewart | Rockies | 423 | .347 | .358 | -4.1 |
| 113 | Casey Blake | Dodgers | 535 | .317 | .326 | -4.2 |
| 114 | Hunter Pence | Astros | 617 | .340 | .348 | -4.4 |
| 115 | Ryan Ludwick | - - - | 507 | .338 | .348 | -4.5 |
| 116 | Juan Rivera | Angels | 428 | .306 | .319 | -4.6 |
| 117 | Chase Headley | Padres | 629 | .310 | .318 | -4.6 |
| 118 | Rajai Davis | Athletics | 512 | .299 | .309 | -4.7 |
| 119 | Ryan Howard | Phillies | 582 | .373 | .382 | -4.7 |
| 120 | Vladimir Guerrero | Rangers | 605 | .363 | .372 | -4.8 |
| 121 | Nyjer Morgan | Nationals | 531 | .290 | .301 | -5.0 |
| 122 | Troy Glaus | Braves | 481 | .331 | .343 | -5.0 |
| 123 | Yadier Molina | Cardinals | 519 | .304 | .315 | -5.0 |
| 124 | Kurt Suzuki | Athletics | 496 | .301 | .313 | -5.3 |
| 125 | Dexter Fowler | Rockies | 457 | .329 | .343 | -5.4 |
| 126 | Ty Wigginton | Orioles | 607 | .322 | .332 | -5.5 |
| 127 | Mike Napoli | Angels | 479 | .343 | .357 | -5.6 |
| 128 | B.J. Upton | Rays | 563 | .324 | .335 | -5.7 |
| 129 | Joe Mauer | Twins | 573 | .387 | .398 | -5.7 |
| 130 | Chase Utley | Phillies | 471 | .372 | .386 | -5.9 |
| 131 | Melky Cabrera | Braves | 483 | .301 | .315 | -5.9 |
| 132 | Jeff Francoeur | - - - | 466 | .293 | .308 | -5.9 |
| 133 | Victor Martinez | Red Sox | 498 | .357 | .371 | -6.0 |
| 134 | Skip Schumaker | Cardinals | 487 | .306 | .321 | -6.1 |
| 135 | Jhonny Peralta | - - - | 572 | .311 | .323 | -6.2 |
| 136 | Clint Barmes | Rockies | 425 | .292 | .310 | -6.5 |
| 137 | Carlos Quentin | White Sox | 505 | .349 | .364 | -7.0 |
| 138 | Justin Upton | Diamondbacks | 570 | .350 | .364 | -7.0 |
| 139 | Albert Pujols | Cardinals | 657 | .419 | .432 | -7.5 |
| 140 | Franklin Gutierrez | Mariners | 583 | .303 | .318 | -7.6 |
| 141 | Marco Scutaro | Red Sox | 663 | .318 | .331 | -8.0 |
| 142 | Ryan Braun | Brewers | 641 | .369 | .385 | -8.6 |
| 143 | Kevin Kouzmanoff | Athletics | 544 | .298 | .317 | -8.9 |
| 144 | Prince Fielder | Brewers | 660 | .390 | .406 | -9.0 |
| 145 | Jorge Cantu | - - - | 484 | .302 | .324 | -9.3 |
| 146 | James Loney | Dodgers | 605 | .323 | .340 | -9.3 |
| 147 | Ryan Theriot | - - - | 589 | .293 | .311 | -9.5 |
| 148 | Jason Bay | Mets | 401 | .332 | .361 | -9.8 |
| 149 | Cesar Izturis | Orioles | 473 | .255 | .279 | -9.9 |
| 150 | Alcides Escobar | Brewers | 525 | .275 | .297 | -10.1 |
| 151 | Jason Kubel | Twins | 537 | .330 | .352 | -10.3 |
| 152 | Jason Bartlett | Rays | 486 | .303 | .327 | -10.4 |
| 153 | Garrett Jones | Pirates | 606 | .311 | .331 | -10.4 |
| 154 | Lance Berkman | - - - | 461 | .354 | .381 | -10.9 |
| 155 | Nick Markakis | Orioles | 662 | .349 | .369 | -11.4 |
| 156 | Howie Kendrick | Angels | 609 | .312 | .334 | -11.4 |
| 157 | Erick Aybar | Angels | 562 | .288 | .313 | -12.2 |
| 158 | Adam LaRoche | Diamondbacks | 576 | .336 | .361 | -12.4 |
| 159 | Cody Ross | - - - | 543 | .309 | .335 | -12.4 |
| 160 | Hanley Ramirez | Marlins | 619 | .372 | .397 | -13.2 |
| 161 | Yunel Escobar | - - - | 517 | .306 | .336 | -13.2 |
| 162 | Julio Borbon | Rangers | 413 | .290 | .327 | -13.2 |
| 163 | J.D. Drew | Red Sox | 511 | .344 | .375 | -13.5 |
| 164 | Felipe Lopez | Cardinals | 422 | .294 | .331 | -13.7 |
| 165 | Mark Reynolds | Diamondbacks | 575 | .334 | .361 | -13.8 |
| 166 | Mark Teixeira | Yankees | 659 | .365 | .390 | -13.9 |
| 167 | Miguel Tejada | - - - | 632 | .306 | .332 | -14.3 |
| 168 | Ben Zobrist | Rays | 602 | .324 | .352 | -14.8 |
| 169 | Brendan Ryan | Cardinals | 444 | .255 | .297 | -16.1 |
| 170 | Matt Kemp | Dodgers | 628 | .320 | .352 | -17.3 |
| 171 | Chone Figgins | Mariners | 634 | .300 | .332 | -17.8 |
| 172 | Todd Helton | Rockies | 436 | .325 | .373 | -17.9 |
| 173 | Derrek Lee | - - - | 587 | .336 | .373 | -19.1 |
| 174 | Carlos Lee | Astros | 605 | .306 | .343 | -19.5 |
| 175 | Pedro Feliz | - - - | 414 | .235 | .291 | -20.2 |
| 176 | Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | 544 | .356 | .399 | -20.3 |
| 177 | Casey Kotchman | Mariners | 453 | .276 | .329 | -20.6 |
| 178 | Alberto Callaspo | - - - | 581 | .300 | .341 | -20.7 |
| 179 | Aaron Hill | Blue Jays | 540 | .293 | .339 | -21.5 |
| 180 | Derek Jeter | Yankees | 690 | .316 | .352 | -21.8 |
| 181 | Matt Wieters | Orioles | 471 | .318 | .372 | -21.8 |
| 182 | Denard Span | Twins | 651 | .311 | .352 | -23.2 |
| 183 | Gordon Beckham | White Sox | 492 | .308 | .364 | -23.9 |
| 184 | Adam Lind | Blue Jays | 579 | .305 | .354 | -24.6 |
| 185 | Aramis Ramirez | Cubs | 468 | .319 | .381 | -25.4 |
| 186 | Carlos Pena | Rays | 545 | .328 | .382 | -25.7 |
| 187 | Pablo Sandoval | Giants | 589 | .316 | .374 | -29.7 |
*minimum 400 PA
a_woba: year to date actual wOBA
p_woba: projected wOBA, using an average of CHONE, Marcel, Oliver, PECOTA, ZiPS and CAIRO
diff: difference in run value between actual and projected wOBA over year to date plate appearances (calculated as a_woba minus p_woba divided by 1.15 times PA)
Keep in mind that the offensive run environment in 2010 is lower than it was in 2009 so the projected wOBA are high for everyone.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Yankees.com: A-Rod’s blasts carry Yanks to top of AL East
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Yankees.com: Burnett returns to form; Yanks win fifth straight
NEW YORK—Mark Teixeira drove in three runs and A.J. Burnett submitted a quality start in the Yankees’ fifth consecutive victory, a 4-3 win over the Athletics on Wednesday night.
The Yankees jumped on Oakland early once again, scoring once in the first and three times in the second to build a 4-0 lead. Derek Jeter got the ball rolling with a leadoff single off Brett Anderson, just the shortstop’s second hit in a span of 26 at-bats. He scored on Teixeira’s RBI double later in the frame.
Eh, I realize I’m probably spoiled but I don’t think six innings and three runs against Oakland is anything to be excited about, although I will take it over three innings and six runs. With Tampa Bay and Boston both winning, the Yankees pick up no ground, but drop their magic numbers by one.
Other important notes:
Pettitte’s latest bullpen session encouraging.
A-Rod takes BP, is practicing caution
Vazquez earns way back to Yanks’ rotation
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Yankees.com: Nunez’s first MLB knock propels Yanks’ win
NEW YORK—Eduardo Nunez’s first Major League hit scored Austin Kearns with the go-ahead run in the seventh, and the Yankees beat the Mariners, 9-5, on Saturday.
Nunez’s single through the right side broke a 4-4 tie. It was the third straight hit for the bottom of the Yankees’ order against Seattle starter Jason Vargas, who had retired 17 of the previous 18 hitters. After Vargas departed, Derek Jeter added an RBI single and Mark Teixeira a sacrifice fly to extend the New York lead.
It took three PAs, but Eduardo Nunez is now a True Yankee™.
Javier Vazquez on the other hand, is not. At this point, you almost have to stop starting him, don’t you? There’s no evidence that he’s anything but awful right now. Over his last seven games:
| GS | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | RA | ERA | FIP | CERA | AVG/OBP/SLG |
| 7 | 35 | 49 | 29 | 26 | 15 | 23 | 11 | 7.46 | 6.69 | 7.26 | 7.73 | .327/.381/.673 |
Think about this. Albert Pujols is a slam-dunk first ballot Hall of Famer. He’s NEVER had a season with a SLG as high as .673 (career high is .671, average is .625).
During the game today, the Yankee announcers discussed the off day coming up next Thursday right before Vazquez’s next scheduled start. The Yankees can use CC Sabathia on full rest in Vazquez’s stead on Friday. Let’s hope they do it.
OK, enough complaining from me.
Chad Gaudin’s probably not going to last on the Yankee roster for the rest of the season, but he came up huge today when the Yankees needed and has quietly been reasonably effective as a Yankee all season. His three scoreless innings today lowered his Yankee RA to 4.05 over his 33 innings pitched, although with a FIP of 5.21 it’s probably not something we should expect to continue.
If Oakland continues to do the right thing tonight, the Yankees will be back to two games up in the AL East. Go A’s!
In other good news, Yankees place 3B Alex Rodriguez on the DL with strained left calf muscle.
After missing yesterday’s game, Yankee manager Joe Girardi announced that Rodriguez would be going on the 15-day disabled list with the calf strain.
“We’re going to play it safe,” Girardi said. “We don’t feel that he’s any worse than he was before, but we’re just going to play it extremely safe and know that we’ll have a player in 15
I don’t think this is a problem, since Eduardo Nunez is better than Rodriguez at this point, but Rodriguez might still be useful in September when you want to give Nunez a half day off at DH or something.
Saturday, August 7, 2010
Yankees.com: Sabathia settles in, bats back Yanks’ ace
With Rodriguez shut down due to a left leg contusion suffered from a batting practice line drive, Ramiro Pena stepped into the lineup and drove in two of New York’s runs.
Curtis Granderson also scored a pair of runs as the Yankees got to John Lackey for five runs in six innings, and Sabathia took care of the rest, taking the ball straight to Mariano Rivera for the closer’s 23rd save.
Losing the next two is inevitable, but at least they prevented the sweep.
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Yankees.com: Blind Squirrel Finds Acorn
Three years to the day after Rodriguez hit his 500th home run, he became the seventh player in Major League history to hit 600 homers in his career with a first-inning blast off Blue Jays starter Shaun Marcum.
Rodriguez’s landmark long ball came on a 2-0 delivery from Marcum with two outs and Derek Jeter on first. The shot into the netting over Monument Park was Rodriguez’s 17th of the season, his 255th career home run as a member of the Yankees, his second career off Marcum in 18 at-bats and his 51st career blast against Toronto. It gave the Yankees a 2-0 lead.
- Congratulations to Alex Rodriguez for reaching a round number milestone.
- It’s almost certain at this point that Derek Jeter and Rodriguez are going to end up with their worst seasons ever. That does NOT make them bad players. It just makes them less good than they were. They’re still plenty good, and good enough to help this team win.
- I realize it was annoying to watch Phil Hughes nibbling, but given the profile of the 2010 Blue Jays (heavy on HRs, light on BB/OBP) was it not the right approach to take? I’d obviously prefer not to see him using 20 pitches an inning, but in the context of this game against this opponent I’ll take it.
- Boone Logan > Damaso Marte?
- Apparently Joba can’t pitch the eighth, but he can rock the seventh.
- Over his last 30 games (31.1 innings), David Robertson has an RA of 2.01, a FIP of 2.56, and a component ERA of 2.79. Opposing batters have hit .223/.326/.250 over that span in 132 PA.
- I had no idea Mo was still on the team.
It was a nice way to go into an off day in front of a four game series with Boston.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Adding Lance Berkman, Volume 1
I realize the Yankees are the worst team in baseball, and we have all the evidence we need for that with their recent mini-slump over the last four games. If you agree with this sentence, please read no further.
For those of us who are not irrational, it is probably a safe assumption that in adding Lance Berkman and Austin Kearns, the Yankees have improved themselves. The question I’d like to try and answer is ‘by how much?’
I guess the first thing that would be good to know is how the players project for the rest of the season, so here are the rest of season CAIRO projections for the players who should see the bulk of the playing time going forward.
| RoS Projected | vs LHP | vs RHP | ||||
| player | avg/obp/slg | wOBA | avg/obp/slg | wOBA | avg/obp/slg | wOBA |
| lance berkman | .267/.379/.483 | .378 | .239/.339/.432 | .338 | .276/.392/.499 | .391 |
| derek jeter | .297/.357/.413 | .347 | .314/.377/.436 | .366 | .292/.350/.405 | .340 |
| nick swisher | .257/.356/.481 | .364 | .264/.366/.495 | .375 | .254/.352/.476 | .360 |
| mark teixeira | .272/.374/.514 | .384 | .277/.380/.523 | .391 | .270/.371/.510 | .382 |
| alex rodriguez | .277/.368/.521 | .387 | .281/.373/.528 | .392 | .276/.366/.519 | .385 |
| robinson cano | .317/.357/.518 | .375 | .304/.343/.498 | .361 | .322/.363/.527 | .382 |
| jorge posada | .267/.356/.464 | .359 | .269/.358/.467 | .362 | .266/.355/.462 | .358 |
| francisco cervelli | .254/.314/.344 | .301 | .266/.328/.359 | .314 | .250/.309/.338 | .295 |
| brett gardner | .275/.359/.369 | .348 | .260/.339/.349 | .329 | .281/.366/.376 | .355 |
| curtis granderson | .256/.330/.456 | .347 | .220/.283/.392 | .298 | .268/.345/.477 | .363 |
| austin kearns | .240/.340/.372 | .324 | .250/.354/.388 | .338 | .236/.335/.366 | .319 |
| marcus thames | .247/.314/.452 | .331 | .258/.327/.471 | .345 | .240/.305/.439 | .321 |
The second and third columns are the overall rest of season projections. The third and fourth columns are for the rest of season projections versus LHP and the fifth and sixth columns are for the rest of season projections versus RHP.
The standard caveats about projections apply here. They’re generally in the ballpark for most players, but they are going to be off on some in either direction because they just aren’t designed to capture true changes in skill. If Derek Jeter has fallen off the cliff, his projection overrates him. Similarly, if Nick Swisher really has incorporated Kevin Long’s advice to establish a new level of play, his projection underrates him. The idea here is that the over-projections and under-projections mitigate each other so the overall projection on a team level is in the ballpark. My guess is that the projections for Jeter and Rodriguez are too bullish, and the projections for Cano, Gardner and Swisher are too bearish. The others seem generally right.
I’ve shown the avg/obp/slg since it’s generally what we’re most accustomed to think about when looking at a player’s line, but the key numbers here are the projected on-base percentages and the projected wOBAs. The reason for that is that we can use OBP to determine the number of PAs per game the team should get, and we can use wOBA to figure out the number of runs the team should score.
Here’s how the Yankees’ primary lineup would probably have looked prior to the acquisitions of Berkman and Kearns.
Update: This chart originally had wOBA and OBP reversed and has been corrected.
| Ord | Player | Pos | PA | OBP | wOBA | Outs | BR | BRAA |
| 1 | Derek Jeter | SS | 5.0 | .357 | .347 | 3.2 | 0.62 | 0.06 |
| 2 | Nick Swisher | RF | 5.0 | .356 | .364 | 3.2 | 0.70 | 0.14 |
| 3 | Mark Teixeira | 1B | 5.0 | .374 | .384 | 3.1 | 0.79 | 0.23 |
| 4 | Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 5.0 | .368 | .387 | 3.2 | 0.80 | 0.24 |
| 5 | Robinson Cano | 2B | 5.0 | .357 | .375 | 3.2 | 0.75 | 0.19 |
| 6 | Jorge Posada | DH | 4.7 | .356 | .359 | 3.0 | 0.64 | 0.11 |
| 7 | Curtis Granderson | CF | 4.0 | .330 | .347 | 2.7 | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| 8 | Francisco Cervelli | C | 4.0 | .314 | .301 | 2.7 | 0.34 | -0.11 |
| 9 | Brett Gardner | LF | 4.0 | .359 | .348 | 2.6 | 0.50 | 0.06 |
| Total | 41.7 | .354 | .359 | 27.0 | 5.63 | 0.97 |
Now they probably could have made use of platooning to improve that some, but that’s probably what would have been the primary lineup, unless they thought Posada could catch more.
To estimate a lineup’s total projection, I give the team enough PAs to get to 27 outs. Which is done as follows:
- Start with 4 PAs for everyone
- Calculate outs made by each player as PAs times ( 1 - OBP)
- Move down the order and add a PA to each slot until you hit a team total 27 outs.
Now, in the sufficiently rare instance of the Yankees winning a game at home and not needing to bat in the ninth they won’t need to use all 27 outs, and there may be extra inning games where they get more than 27 outs, and there are obviously outs on bases and double plays that aren’t included here but all we’re looking at here is the delta between different configurations so using 27 is good enough.
BR are just the absolute linear weights batting runs figured for the listed number of PAs, not position-adjusted or compared to average/replacement level. BRAA are just how many BR above/below average each player projects to be, again over the listed PAs.
So the Yankees looked to be around 5.63 runs per game with this lineup, roughly an 910 run offense over a full season. Of course, you wouldn’t expect this lineup to play 162 games so the season total would be a fair amount less than that.
I haven’t done rest of season pitching projections yet, but if we use the Yankees’ YTD RA of 4.18 per game, a team that scores 5.63 runs per game and allows 4.18 per game is around a .640 team, or a 104 win team.
So what does adding just Lance Berkman to DH and moving Posada back to catcher mean?
| Ord | Player | Pos | PA | OBP | wOBA | Outs | BR | BRAA |
| 1 | Derek Jeter | SS | 5.0 | .357 | .347 | 3.2 | 0.62 | 0.06 |
| 2 | Nick Swisher | RF | 5.0 | .356 | .364 | 3.2 | 0.70 | 0.14 |
| 3 | Mark Teixeira | 1B | 5.0 | .374 | .384 | 3.1 | 0.79 | 0.23 |
| 4 | Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 5.0 | .368 | .387 | 3.2 | 0.80 | 0.24 |
| 5 | Robinson Cano | 2B | 5.0 | .357 | .375 | 3.2 | 0.75 | 0.19 |
| 6 | Jorge Posada | C | 5.0 | .356 | .359 | 3.2 | 0.68 | 0.12 |
| 7 | Lance Berkman | DH | 4.2 | .379 | .378 | 2.6 | 0.64 | 0.17 |
| 8 | Curtis Granderson | CF | 4.0 | .330 | .347 | 2.7 | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| 9 | Brett Gardner | LF | 4.0 | .359 | .348 | 2.6 | 0.50 | 0.06 |
| Total | 42.2 | .360 | .366 | 27.0 | 5.97 | 1.25 |
It means about 0.34 additional runs per game, which makes them closer to a .667/108 win team.
On paper that’s a bit more than a one win upgrade over what’s left of the season, although depending on how much catching time Jorge Posada got in lieu of Francisco Cervelli prior to the Berkman trade, and how much time Cervelli sees going forward, that gap shrinks by a bit.
Now, it’s a little more involved than this, because the Yankees can probably get more value out of their players by using platoon advantages where applicable. I’ll try and do a follow up post on that later today or tomorrow.
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Yankees.com: A-Rod can’t rescue silent Yanks late
ST. PETERSBURG—The Yankees’ bats were largely helpless against James Shields in a commanding performance on Sunday, as the Tampa Bay Rays posted a 3-0 victory over New York at Tropicana Field.
Shields stifled the Bronx Bombers to move Tampa Bay back within one game of first place in the American League East, firing 7 1/3 innings of scoreless ball and limiting New York to just four hits on 11 strikeouts, one shy of his season high.
Maybe I’m crazy,. but I’d think that with your ace going in the rubber game of a road series against the team that’s neck and neck with you in the division, you wouldn’t bench your cleanup hitter for a utility IF hitting .209/.247/.220 on the season and you wouldn’t bench your starting LF either.
But maybe I’m crazy.
You also have to wonder if Mark Teixeira would have made two of the plays Lance Berkman failed to make that directly led to Rays runs. I don’t think that’s a big deal though, my guess there is that Joe Girardi wanted to let Berkman feel a bit more comfortable and DHing can be a bit rough for some players. Berkman did make one nice play too.
With the way James Shields pitched today, it probably wouldn’t have mattered anyway, but I really can’t fathom what Girardi was thinking when he wrote out today’s lineup card.
I’m also not really sure why Girardi needs to keep CC Sabathia pitching over 110 pitches in games that look like they’re going to be losses anyway. Maybe save some of those bullets for a winnable game?
It was a crappy ending to what was a pretty intense series, but the Yankees entered it with a two game lead over Tampa Bay and a 7.5 game lead over Boston and saw both of those leads shrink by a game (thanks for nothing, Detroit). So there’s no way to spin it as anything but disappointing.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Yankees.com: Without homering, A-Rod helps fuel rout
CLEVELAND—Alex Rodriguez may not have delivered the milestone home run the Yankees have been waiting for, but their offense swung the bats plenty in posting an 8-0 pounding of the Indians on Wednesday at Progressive Field.
New York battered Cleveland starter Fausto Carmona early and often, chasing the right-hander after just 2 2/3 innings to the tune of 10 hits and seven earned runs to improve to 28 games over .500 at 64-36, matching their season high.
Don’t get too excited about this win, or any other recent win, for that matter. Because the tide is about to turn on the Yankees as they’ll eventually have to face a red hot Red Sox team and oppressive heat in Kansas City.
Monday, July 26, 2010
Yankees.com: Grand win for Yanks; A-Rod’s quest continues
CLEVELAND—Alex Rodriguez remained stuck on 599 career home runs, but Curtis Granderson picked up the slack with a two-run shot, helping to lift Javier Vazquez and the Yankees to a 3-2 victory over the Indians on Monday at Progressive Field.
Not sure who this Granderson guy is, but I like him a lot better than that other bum who was playing center field all season.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Yankees.com: A-Rod, Jeter highlight Yanks’ wild win
NEW YORK—Alex Rodriguez sent his 599th home run over the wall and Derek Jeter legged out the second inside-the-park homer of his career as the Yankees defeated the Royals, 10-4, on Thursday at Yankee Stadium.
Rodriguez’s knock on the doorstep of the 600-homer club came in the seventh inning facing Kansas City reliever Robinson Tejeda, who grooved an 0-2 pitch that was dispatched by A-Rod, rocketing over the right-field wall for his 16th home run of the season.
A-Rod had the option of trotting, but Jeter didn’t in the third, smashing a drive toward the New York bullpen that eluded David DeJesus when the center fielder crashed into the plexiglass fence and suffered a right thumb sprain. Jeter slid home safely with his first inside-the-parker since Aug. 2, 1996, off Kansas City’s Jeff Montgomery.
Despite the final score, this was a bit too close for comfort through the first 7 and a half innings. Brett Gardner’s arm saved the Yankees a big run, and Jorge Posada’s arm cost them one and almost cost them again. Posada’s clearly making the case to keep Jesus Montero at catcher, as it’s not possible he could be any worse defensively.
CC Sabathia wasn’t good, but he was due for a clunker, and managed to at least get out of the fifth inning, a sore spot for many of the Yankee starters of late. The Yankees are going to need innings with Andy Pettitte out for the next month, with Kei Igawa in an A.J. Burnett mask starting every fifth day and with Phil Hughes irreparably damaged .because the Yankees skipped his turn in the rotation once.
And don’t look now, but Mark Teixeira’s seasonal line is creeping to respectability. He started the night at .256/.366/.471 and exited it at .261/.369/.475. Now we can turn our attention to Jeter’s quest for a .400 SLG.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
2010 All Star Break Review - June Edition
A little late, but following up on April and May here’s the June All Star Break review.
June looked like the Yankees’ easiest month on paper, with 18 of their 27 games at home, and with a bunch of those games against minor league teams from Houston, Philadelphia and Queens. Log5 would have estimated them winning about 18 of those 27 games.
| Series | Start Date | # Gms | xW | aW | diff |
| Orioles at Yankees | 6/1/2010 | 3 | 2.3 | 3 | 0.7 |
| Yankees at Blue Jays | 6/4/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 1 | -0.8 |
| Yankees at Orioles | 6/8/2010 | 3 | 2.1 | 2 | -0.1 |
| Astros at Yankees | 6/11/2010 | 3 | 2.3 | 3 | 0.7 |
| Phillies at Yankees | 6/15/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 1 | -0.8 |
| Mets at Yankees | 6/18/2010 | 3 | 1.9 | 2 | 0.1 |
| Yankees at Diamondbacks | 6/21/2010 | 3 | 1.9 | 2 | 0.1 |
| Yankees at Dodgers | 6/25/2010 | 3 | 1.6 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Mariners at Yankees | 6/29/2010 | 3 | 2.1 | 1 | -1.1 |
| Total | 27 | 18 | 17 | -1 |
xW: Expected wins for this series using log 5
aW: Actual wins
diff: Difference between xW and aW. Positive means team exceeded expectations
The Yankees did about a win worse than expected, with the home series against Seattle to end the month the biggest problem (this does include the game in July 1). It felt worse than that, but I think a big part of that was the drop in offense, as the team went from scoring 5.6 runs per game in April and 5.7 runs per game in May to 4.7 in June.
| Player | month | pa | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | so | sb | cs | gdp | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | br |
| Derek Jeter | 6 | 118 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 4 | .243 | .339 | .379 | .323 | 13 |
| Mark Teixeira | 6 | 116 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .250 | .353 | .460 | .359 | 16 |
| Robinson Cano | 6 | 113 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .333 | .398 | .510 | .398 | 19 |
| Nick Swisher | 6 | 117 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .240 | .325 | .423 | .328 | 14 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 6 | 90 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .244 | .311 | .463 | .333 | 12 |
| Brett Gardner | 6 | 71 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0 | .383 | .479 | .533 | .450 | 14 |
| Curtis Granderson | 6 | 100 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .239 | .300 | .457 | .325 | 13 |
| Jorge Posada | 6 | 90 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .203 | .344 | .351 | .323 | 10 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 6 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .180 | .275 | .246 | .250 | 4 |
| Marcus Thames | 6 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .071 | .133 | .071 | .108 | -1 |
| Nick Johnson | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Ramiro Pena | 6 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .136 | .240 | .136 | .200 | 1 |
| Randy Winn | 6 | 51 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .277 | .333 | .383 | .322 | 6 |
| Kevin Russo | 6 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .130 | .231 | .130 | .192 | 1 |
| Juan Miranda | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Colin Curtis | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Chad Huffman | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Chad Moeller | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .333 | .400 | .327 | 1 |
| Greg Golson | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
br: Total linear weights batting runs, not position-adjusted or compared to average/replacement level
Once again, Robinson Cano was the most valuable offensive player on the team although Brett Gardner has the best rate performance. Derek Jeter had a relatively rough month, and reality slammed into Francisco Cervelli’s over-sized batting helmet with extreme force. But in general, the team overall just didn’t have a good month offensively. The only players who hit at least as well as they projected entering the season were Cano and TSBG.
On the plus side, the team’s run prevention in June improved over May, falling to 4.3 from 4.4. Of course, that’s at least partially a function of only pitching to 88.9% of a major league lineup for a large part of the month, and a function of playing some bad teams.
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| CC Sabathia | 5 | 5 | 37.0 | 25 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 2.19 | 2.19 | 3.15 | 14.3 |
| Javier Vazquez | 6 | 6 | 39.0 | 26 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 3.23 | 3.23 | 4.48 | 10.6 |
| Andy Pettitte | 5 | 5 | 34.0 | 28 | 15 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 3.97 | 3.18 | 3.85 | 6.4 |
| Phil Hughes | 5 | 5 | 31.3 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 5.46 | 5.17 | 4.09 | 0.8 |
| A.J. Burnett | 5 | 5 | 23.0 | 35 | 29 | 29 | 9 | 3 | 17 | 19 | 11.35 | 11.35 | 9.24 | -14.5 |
| SP Total | 26 | 26 | 164.33 | 151 | 86 | 82 | 25 | 7 | 61 | 146 | 4.71 | 4.49 | 4.64 | 17.6 |
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| Mariano Rivera | 11 | 0 | 13.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.43 | 7.5 |
| David Robertson | 9 | 0 | 9.0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.53 | 4.2 |
| Boone Logan | 4 | 0 | 7.7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 3.33 | 2.4 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 12 | 0 | 10.7 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 4.22 | 4.22 | 2.45 | 1.2 |
| Sergio Mitre | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.70 | 1.2 |
| Chad Gaudin | 7 | 0 | 12.7 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 4.97 | 4.97 | 6.04 | 0.3 |
| Chan Ho Park | 9 | 0 | 11.7 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 5.40 | 5.40 | 3.46 | -0.2 |
| Damaso Marte | 8 | 0 | 5.3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 7.33 | -0.9 |
| RP Total | 61 | 0 | 72 | 57 | 26 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 65 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.53 | 15.8 |
| SP + RP | 87 | 26 | 236.33 | 208 | 112 | 108 | 29 | 9 | 93 | 211 | 4.27 | 4.11 | 4.30 | 33.4 |
A.J. Burnett’s June could’ve gone a little better. Phil Hughes also had a disappointing month, but the it’s tough to quibble with how Sabathia, Vazquez and Pettitte did. The bullpen had its best month of the season overall, with David Robertson finally starting to resemble the 2009 vintage. It’s easy to forget how dominant Mo can be at times, but look at that June line and marvel at his awesomeness.
Once again the Yankees ERA was lower than their FIP, this time to the tune of about six runs. So it’s probably a safe assumption that the defense played pretty well, even if they don’t deserve all the credit for that difference.
The Yankees’ run differential in June was by far their worst of the season, as they allowed 114 runs to go with the 128 runs scored, a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .554. So the Yankees may have been a bit fortunate to actually only miss their expectations by one game.
And since it was requested, here’s a WAR pie chart for the Yankees through Sunday’s games.
Not shown:
Boone Logan: 0.2
Romulo Sanchez: 0.2
Damaso Marte: 0.2
Juan Miranda: 0.2
Alfredo Aceves: 0.2
Ivan Nova: 0.2
A.J. Burnett: 0.1
Kevin Russo: 0.1
Sergio Mitre: 0.1
Greg Golson: 0.1
David Robertson: 0.0
Colin Curtis: 0.0
Chad Moeller: 0.0
Chad Huffman: -0.1
Dustin Moseley: -0.2
Mark Melancon: -0.3
Ramiro Pena: -0.3
Chan Ho Park: -0.3
Joba Chamberlain: -0.4
Monday, July 12, 2010
2010 All Star Break Review - May Edition
After a solid April, the Yankees headed into May hoping to continue their winning ways.
On paper, the May schedule looked to be a bit easier than April’s. In terms of expected winning percentage, the Yankees were expect to win 12.3 of 21 games in April, a winning percentage of .585. May had 30 games scheduled, and their log5 expected wins was about 18.3, or a .609 winning percentage.
| Series | Start Date | # Gms | xW | aW | diff |
| White Sox at Yankees | 5/2/2010 | 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.1 |
| Orioles at Yankees | 5/5/2010 | 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| Yankees at Red Sox | 5/9/2010 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| Yankees at Tigers | 5/13/2010 | 4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | -1.3 |
| Twins at Yankees | 5/16/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| Red Sox at Yankees | 5/18/2010 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | -0.1 |
| Rays at Yankees | 5/20/2010 | 2 | 1.1 | 0.0 | -1.1 |
| Yankees at Mets | 5/23/2010 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | -0.6 |
| Yankees at Twins | 5/27/2010 | 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| Indians at Yankees | 5/31/2010 | 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.2 |
| Total | 30 | 18.3 | 17.0 | -1.3 |
xW: Expected wins for this series using log 5
aW: Actual wins
diff: Difference between xW and aW. Positive means team is ahead of their projected pace
The Yankees took care of business in the first three series they played, taking two of three against the White Sox and sweeping Baltimore before shipping up to Boston and taking two of three.
Then came a disappointing series in Detroit where they lost three of four, when they probably should have split.
They finished off the month by taking two of three from Minnesota at home then splitting a two-gamer with Boston. Then came the first series of the year were they didn’t win a game, as Tampa Bay came into DNYS and took a two-gamer. Next up came a three game exhibition series against the Mets in Flushing, where the Yankees dropped two of three. However, for some reason Bud Selig decided exhibition games should count so the Yanks got saddled with a series loss.
They finished up the month by doing what they should have done on the road against Minnesota and Cleveland, winning both series and finishing up the month with 17 wins, about one win less than log5 would have expected.
The Yankees scored 171 runs in May, an average of about 5.7 per game. That was a hair better than April. Here’s how the hitters performed.
| Player | pa | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | so | sb | cs | gdp | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | br |
| Derek Jeter | 140 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 2 | .281 | .343 | .359 | .320 | 16 |
| Mark Teixeira | 134 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .280 | .366 | .475 | .368 | 19 |
| Robinson Cano | 125 | 39 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .336 | .384 | .509 | .390 | 20 |
| Nick Swisher | 102 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .374 | .441 | .670 | .472 | 23 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 118 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .330 | .415 | .534 | .414 | 21 |
| Brett Gardner | 127 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 2 | .286 | .370 | .375 | .339 | 16 |
| Curtis Granderson | 18 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .444 | .533 | .434 | 3 |
| Jorge Posada | 35 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .355 | .429 | .581 | .434 | 7 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 84 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .307 | .381 | .400 | .353 | 11 |
| Marcus Thames | 57 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .222 | .386 | .311 | .341 | 6 |
| Nick Johnson | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .286 | .412 | .643 | .441 | 3 |
| Ramiro Pena | 36 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | .235 | .278 | .265 | .249 | 2 |
| Randy Winn | 56 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .250 | .357 | .354 | .326 | 6 |
| Kevin Russo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .250 | .250 | .225 | 0 |
| Juan Miranda | 34 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .226 | .294 | .419 | .309 | 4 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
br: Total Linear weights batting runs, not position-adjusted or compared to average/replacement level
The injury bug hit the Yankees in May, with Curtis Granderson, Jorge Posada and Nick Johnson all going down, pressing Francisco Cervelli, Randy Winn and Juan Miranda into the lineup a bit more than you’d hope for. Cervelli was up to the task, but it’s probably safe to say the others weren’t so much.
Nick Swisher was the best offensive player on the team in May, hitting .374/.441/.670 with seven homers. Alex Rodriguez also had a good month, and although Cano dropped from otherworldly to really good he was also very valuable. Mark Teixeira also showed signs of life after a disastrous April.
In April the pitching staff allowed an average of 3.76 runs per game, but they fell off in May, going to 4.4 runs per game.
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| Phil Hughes | 6 | 6 | 38.7 | 35 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 3.03 | 3.03 | 2.81 | 11.4 |
| A.J. Burnett | 6 | 6 | 38.0 | 38 | 22 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 33 | 5.21 | 4.03 | 3.91 | 2.0 |
| CC Sabathia | 6 | 6 | 36.7 | 40 | 22 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 5.40 | 5.15 | 5.60 | 1.1 |
| Andy Pettitte | 5 | 5 | 31.3 | 29 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 3.16 | 2.87 | 4.51 | 8.8 |
| Javier Vazquez | 5 | 4 | 22.0 | 21 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 18 | 4.91 | 4.91 | 5.43 | 1.9 |
| Total | 28 | 27 | 167 | 163 | 80 | 73 | 22 | 4 | 52 | 132 | 4.32 | 3.94 | 4.34 | 25.1 |
rsar: runs saved above replacement level, calculated as n times league average RA minus pitcher RA time innings pitched, where n = 1.25 for starters and 1.15 for reliever.
May was the Phil Hughes show, as he was the most valuable pitcher on the team. Although his ERA went up by about a run, his FIP went down as he improved his walk rate from 5.5 batters per nine inning to 1.9. Andy Pettitte also continued to pitch well, and although Javier Vazquez’s final May line wasn’t very good, he ended the month pitching quite well. CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett both had rough months after good starts to the season.
Once again, the bullpen disappointed.
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| Sergio Mitre | 8 | 2 | 18.7 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 3.86 | 3.38 | 5.24 | 2.8 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 11 | 0 | 11.3 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 8.74 | 7.94 | 1.52 | -4.4 |
| David Robertson | 11 | 0 | 11.0 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 5.73 | 5.73 | 6.02 | -0.6 |
| Boone Logan | 10 | 0 | 8.3 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.60 | -0.2 |
| Chan Ho Park | 6 | 0 | 7.7 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9.39 | 9.39 | 7.50 | -3.6 |
| Mariano Rivera | 8 | 0 | 7.3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6.14 | 3.68 | 4.70 | -0.7 |
| Damaso Marte | 10 | 0 | 5.3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1.69 | 1.69 | 3.39 | 2.1 |
| Mark Melancon | 2 | 0 | 4.0 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11.25 | 9.00 | 4.95 | -2.7 |
| Chad Gaudin | 2 | 0 | 3.7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4.91 | 4.91 | 10.02 | 0.1 |
| Romulo Sanchez | 1 | 0 | 3.7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.38 | 2.1 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 4 | 0 | 3.3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.60 | 1.9 |
| Ivan Nova | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.53 | 1.7 |
| Total | 75 | 2 | 87 | 89 | 52 | 47 | 13 | 34 | 3 | 70 | 5.36 | 4.84 | 4.80 | -1.3 |
Even Mo had a rough month before going down for a while with an oblique injury. Joba Chamberlain had three spectactular disaster games.
On May 16 he started teh eighth with a 3-1 lead. He did manage to get two outs in between allowing two singles and a walk to load the bases, at which point Mo came in and did things he’d only done four times in his career.
a) He walked in a run
b) He gave up a grand slam
Apparently, one implosion wasn’t good enough for Joba, as he came in two days later on May 18 in a home game against the Red Sox with a 5-1 lead, and proceeded to allow four hits and four runs as Boston tied the game. An error in the ninth allowed Boston to score one against Mo and the Yankees had one of the most painful losses of the season.
Apparently, that wasn’t good enough either, because on May 29 he once again turned what looked like a sure win into a loss. This time, he came in with the Yankees ahead 10-6. Despite the fact that Cleveland had runners on first and second, the Yankees had a win expectancy of about 95% since there were two outs.
- A single cut the lead to 10-7, and the win expectancy to 90%
- A walk loaded the bases and cut the win expectancy to 85%
- A double cut the lead to 10-9, and the win expectancy to 67%
- Another double put Cleveland ahead 11-10 and cut the Yankees’ win expectancy to 33%.
- Another single gave Cleveland another run and cut the Yankees’ win expectancy to 21%.
Joba finished up strong though, striking out Shin-Soo Choo to end the inning and moving the Yankees’ win expectancy back up to 22%.
And hey, his FIP was 1.52 in May, so that’s something. I know bebop was wondering about Joba’s BABIP and if we could expect it to get better, and I’ll try and get to that in a few days.
The rest of the pen really didn’t do anything of note, although it should be noted that Chan Ho Park’s ERA of 9.39 was almost two runs higher than his 7.50 FIP, so he may have been a little unlucky.
As far as the defense, once again the Yankees cumulative ERA(4.25) was lower than their FIP (4.50). The gap wasn’t quite as big as it was in April, but that’s a difference of about seven runs. Again, I don’t think we necessarily want to give all the credit for that to the defense, but I’m sure they deserve some of it.
Despite the frustrating games where Joba turned what looked like wins into losses, in the big picture May wasn’t really a bad month either. You could almost say that to this point, the Yankees had been consistent.
2010 All Star Break Review - April Edition
With the All Star Break’s arrival, we have a chance to look back at what’s happened so far in 2010 and think about what it means going forward. So here’s a look at the Yankees’ performance in April.
| Series | Start Date | # Gms | xW | aW | diff |
| Yankees at Red Sox | 4/7/2010 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| Yankees at Rays | 4/11/2010 | 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| Angels at Yankees | 4/15/2010 | 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
| Rangers at Yankees | 4/18/2010 | 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| Yankees at Athletics | 4/22/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| Yankees at Angels | 4/25/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | -0.8 |
| Yankees at Orioles | 4/29/2010 | 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | -0.1 |
| Total | 21 | 12.3 | 14.0 | 1.7 |
xW: Expected wins for this series using log 5
aW: Actual wins
diff: Difference between xW and aW. Positive means team is ahead of their projected pace
April had the potential to be a very rough month, with 15 of the first 21 games on the road, including the first six on the road against arguably two of the three best teams in baseball.
After dropping the season opener, the Yankees went on to win four of five games against Boston and Tampa Bay to jump a bit ahead of their log5 estimated pace. They then went home to win five of six against the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles and the Arlington Rangers of Texas. Next up came a six game west coast trip which saw the Yankees pick up two of three at Oakland before losing two of three to California. The Yankees then headed to Baltimore and finished out May by taking two of three.
The key series in April was the sweep of the Rangers, as it gave the Yankees an extra win over expectations.
The Yankees scored 118 runs during April, about 5.6 per game. Here’s how the hitters performed.
| Player | pa | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | so | sb | cs | gdp | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | br |
| Robinson Cano | 83 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | .390 | .434 | .740 | .492 | 19 |
| Derek Jeter | 98 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | .330 | .357 | .521 | .379 | 15 |
| Jorge Posada | 66 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .310 | .394 | .638 | .435 | 13 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 96 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .250 | .344 | .440 | .345 | 12 |
| Nick Swisher | 83 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .247 | .337 | .438 | .343 | 11 |
| Brett Gardner | 63 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | .321 | .397 | .393 | .360 | 10 |
| Curtis Granderson | 82 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .219 | .305 | .342 | .292 | 8 |
| Nick Johnson | 81 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .138 | .383 | .224 | .318 | 8 |
| Mark Teixeira | 100 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .136 | .300 | .259 | .273 | 7 |
| Marcus Thames | 18 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .625 | .667 | 1.000 | .695 | 7 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .231 | .333 | .231 | .285 | 1 |
| Randy Winn | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .077 | .077 | .077 | .069 | -1 |
| Total | 798 | 185 | 35 | 9 | 25 | 90 | 12 | 129 | 18 | 6 | 14 | .266 | .360 | .450 | .358 | 111 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
br: Total Linear weights batting runs, not position-adjusted or compared to average/replacement level
Robinson Cano obviously stormed out of the gate, as did Jorge Posada. Derek Jeter and Brett Gardner were also strong at the start. The rest of the starters were a bit underwhelming, although Marcus Thames did very well in his part-time role.
On the pitching side, it was all about the starting pitchers.
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| CC Sabathia | 5 | 5 | 34.7 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 28 | 3.38 | 3.12 | 3.46 | 8.9 |
| Andy Pettitte | 5 | 5 | 34.0 | 28 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 25 | 2.12 | 2.12 | 3.17 | 13.4 |
| A.J. Burnett | 5 | 5 | 33.3 | 31 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 20 | 2.70 | 2.43 | 3.47 | 11.0 |
| Javier Vazquez | 4 | 4 | 20.0 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 18 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 6.45 | -7.4 |
| Phil Hughes | 3 | 3 | 18.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 18 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 3.76 | 7.4 |
| Total | 22 | 22 | 140 | 115 | 55 | 53 | 10 | 54 | 6 | 109 | 3.54 | 3.41 | 3.86 | 33.3 |
rsar: runs saved above replacement level, calculated as n times league average RA minus pitcher RA time innings pitched, where n = 1.25 for starters and 1.15 for reliever.
With one notable exception, the starting pitching was outstanding to start the season. CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes combined for about 40 runs saved above replacement level in 18 games. How good is that? To put it in perspective, if you had that rate of performance from your first four starting pitchers over a full season (132 games) you’d be 30 wins above a theoretical replacement level team. If replacement level is 60 wins, you’d win 90 games if the only thing you had was these four pitchers plus replacement level everywhere else.
The bullpen wasn’t quite as happy of a tale.
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| Joba Chamberlain | 11 | 0 | 10.3 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 3.48 | 3.48 | 3.39 | 2.0 |
| Mariano Rivera | 10 | 0 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.20 | 5.2 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 6 | 0 | 8.7 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5.19 | 4.15 | 6.20 | 0.0 |
| Chan Ho Park | 3 | 0 | 5.7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6.35 | 4.76 | 6.73 | -0.7 |
| David Robertson | 7 | 0 | 5.0 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10.80 | 10.80 | 3.80 | -3.1 |
| Damaso Marte | 9 | 0 | 4.7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5.79 | 5.79 | 7.27 | -0.3 |
| Sergio Mitre | 3 | 0 | 4.3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2.08 | 2.08 | 3.66 | 1.5 |
| Boone Logan | 3 | 0 | 2.3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 4.06 | 0.4 |
| Total | 52 | 0 | 50 | 46 | 24 | 22 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 38 | 4.32 | 3.96 | 4.50 | -2.2 |
Before Joba Chamberlain became some hybrid of Juan Acevedo and Jose Veras, he was decent in April and of course Mo was Mo. The only real glaring weak spot was David Robertson, although in six innings anyone can look lousy, and his FIP was ok.
I don’t have the defensive data to look at the April split, although the team had a collective FIP of 4.03 compared to an ERA of 3.55. If you want to ascribe the entirety of that difference to the defense, they’d have been around a +10 overall. Of course, just because you need a large sample size of BABIP to ascertain a pitcher’s real skill doesn’t mean it’s not there, so it’s likely that at least some of that difference is due to the pitchers.
Anyway, unlike many recent Yankee teams, the Yankees started out well, which was nice.
Friday, July 9, 2010
Yankees.com: A-Rod lifts Yanks to sixth consecutive win
SEATTLE—Alex Rodriguez has a real knack for beating his former team.
The ex-Mariner was booed each time he came to the plate Thursday at Safeco Field, but he got the last laugh. Rodriguez scored and drove in the Yankees’ go-ahead runs in a 3-1 win against Seattle to extend New York’s win streak to six games.
His grounder through the right side in the ninth brought in two and broke a 1-1 deadlock, and Mariano Rivera closed out the game. Starter Andy Pettitte improved to 11-2 by throwing eight one-run innings, and he and Rivera notched their 68th win-save combination, the most in the Majors since saves became an official statistic in 1969.
Trading Alex Rodriguez for Scott Brosius in an Alex Rodriguez mask has been wonderful.
The Yankees avert getting swept in a four game series by winning tonight. Woo hoo!
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Yankees.com: A-Rod’s five RBIs set up CC’s 11th win
OAKLAND—Alex Rodriguez’s first multihomer game of the season moved him within three blasts of the 600-homer club, and CC Sabathia won his seventh straight start as the Yankees defeated the A’s on Tuesday, 6-1, at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.
When Tampa Bay and Boston are playing each other, the Yankees are guaranteed a chance to pick up a game on someone if they can just win. They blew two chances for that against Seattle last week, but they’ve taken advantage of that the last two nights.
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Who Should Be The All Star Game Starters for the AL?
I generally don’t really care who winds up on the All Star Team, although I’d always like to see the best players on the AL squad to guarantee Boston home field advantage in the World Series. I also don’t necessarily think an All Star berth should only rely on current season performance alone, but if that is the selection criteria, here are the top players at each position by my version of WAR, which uses the same basic methodology that Fangraphs uses, with the exception that I use an average of zone rating, John Dewan’s plus/minus DRS and UZR for defense, which is really just a way to regress the defensive portion of a player’s estimated value to deal with possible quirkiness in any single metric.
| Player | Team | Lg | Pos | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BRAR | zRS | uRS | dRS | aRS | WAR |
| Justin Morneau | Twins | AL | 1B | 339 | 99 | 25 | 1 | 17 | 51 | 55 | 49 | 60 | 0 | 0 | .344 | .437 | .615 | .446 | 33.3 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 4.0 |
| Kevin Youkilis | Red Sox | AL | 1B | 339 | 83 | 19 | 5 | 17 | 66 | 55 | 51 | 52 | 2 | 1 | .299 | .416 | .586 | .424 | 28.4 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 3.0 |
| Miguel Cabrera | Tigers | AL | 1B | 338 | 100 | 26 | 0 | 20 | 61 | 71 | 40 | 50 | 2 | 3 | .339 | .417 | .631 | .441 | 32.7 | 0.9 | -4.9 | -6.0 | -3.3 | 2.9 |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | AL | 1B | 372 | 77 | 19 | 0 | 14 | 56 | 54 | 48 | 58 | 0 | 1 | .243 | .352 | .435 | .347 | 9.9 | 0.5 | -3.6 | -1.0 | -1.4 | 0.9 |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | AL | 2B | 355 | 110 | 22 | 1 | 16 | 59 | 55 | 25 | 39 | 2 | 2 | .342 | .394 | .565 | .409 | 33.4 | -0.7 | 5.6 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 3.9 |
| Dustin Pedroia | Red Sox | AL | 2B | 341 | 86 | 24 | 1 | 12 | 52 | 41 | 36 | 36 | 8 | 1 | .292 | .370 | .502 | .374 | 25.8 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.2 |
| Ian Kinsler | Rangers | AL | 2B | 260 | 66 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 44 | 27 | 37 | 33 | 8 | 3 | .304 | .412 | .415 | .374 | 16.3 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 |
| Adrian Beltre | Red Sox | AL | 3B | 329 | 104 | 24 | 1 | 12 | 41 | 54 | 18 | 50 | 1 | 1 | .340 | .377 | .542 | .393 | 27.8 | -1.3 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| Evan Longoria | Rays | AL | 3B | 361 | 94 | 25 | 3 | 12 | 49 | 60 | 37 | 69 | 12 | 2 | .296 | .368 | .506 | .375 | 28.0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 331 | 79 | 20 | 2 | 12 | 43 | 62 | 33 | 54 | 2 | 2 | .272 | .344 | .479 | .353 | 17.9 | 0.4 | -0.3 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Joe Mauer | Twins | AL | C | 308 | 82 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 44 | 34 | 33 | 27 | 1 | 2 | .303 | .377 | .432 | .358 | 19.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 1.9 |
| Victor Martinez | Red Sox | AL | C | 270 | 71 | 20 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 38 | 22 | 25 | 1 | 0 | .289 | .344 | .480 | .355 | 19.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | -2.0 | -2.0 | 1.7 |
| Mike Napoli | Angels | AL | C | 275 | 62 | 13 | 1 | 14 | 33 | 36 | 21 | 78 | 3 | 2 | .255 | .331 | .490 | .351 | 16.0 | 1.2 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 |
| Jorge Posada | Yankees | AL | C | 209 | 47 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 26 | 28 | 28 | 42 | 0 | 0 | .267 | .373 | .483 | .372 | 13.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2.0 | -2.0 | 1.2 |
| Alex Rios | White Sox | AL | CF | 317 | 87 | 18 | 1 | 13 | 49 | 45 | 21 | 40 | 22 | 8 | .299 | .353 | .502 | .368 | 22.6 | -1.6 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| Vernon Wells | Blue Jays | AL | CF | 335 | 84 | 24 | 1 | 19 | 45 | 48 | 24 | 49 | 4 | 1 | .274 | .328 | .544 | .366 | 24.6 | 1.3 | -2.0 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 2.6 |
| Torii Hunter | Angels | AL | CF | 339 | 86 | 24 | 0 | 14 | 49 | 60 | 39 | 55 | 7 | 8 | .296 | .381 | .522 | .387 | 25.5 | -1.9 | -0.4 | -1.0 | -1.1 | 2.4 |
| Austin Jackson | Tigers | AL | CF | 320 | 91 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 48 | 20 | 19 | 84 | 13 | 3 | .305 | .353 | .406 | .337 | 14.0 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.1 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | AL | CF | 226 | 46 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 23 | 22 | 49 | 6 | 0 | .228 | .305 | .411 | .312 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 1.2 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | Rangers | AL | DH | 331 | 99 | 14 | 1 | 18 | 52 | 70 | 20 | 29 | 4 | 3 | .328 | .372 | .560 | .394 | 19.5 | -1.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| David Ortiz | Red Sox | AL | DH | 280 | 61 | 18 | 0 | 17 | 44 | 54 | 42 | 71 | 0 | 1 | .261 | .371 | .556 | .391 | 16.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| Luke Scott | Orioles | AL | DH | 253 | 61 | 17 | 1 | 12 | 35 | 30 | 25 | 56 | 1 | 0 | .274 | .348 | .520 | .368 | 11.9 | 0.0 | -0.9 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 1.2 |
| Carl Crawford | Rays | AL | LF | 342 | 98 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 63 | 42 | 29 | 50 | 29 | 8 | .320 | .377 | .493 | .376 | 22.1 | 5.3 | 15.2 | 14.0 | 11.5 | 3.4 |
| Josh Hamilton | Rangers | AL | LF | 343 | 108 | 23 | 2 | 20 | 55 | 61 | 23 | 68 | 6 | 1 | .340 | .385 | .613 | .420 | 33.7 | -6.4 | 2.6 | -1.0 | -1.6 | 3.2 |
| Brennan Boesch | Tigers | AL | LF | 246 | 77 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 31 | 46 | 20 | 45 | 2 | 0 | .344 | .398 | .603 | .424 | 22.8 | 2.5 | -0.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | AL | LF | 293 | 80 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 53 | 29 | 33 | 41 | 24 | 5 | .314 | .396 | .427 | .368 | 16.7 | 9.9 | 0.8 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 2.3 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | Indians | AL | RF | 354 | 86 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 48 | 43 | 48 | 59 | 12 | 4 | .286 | .390 | .475 | .380 | 20.4 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 2.5 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | Mariners | AL | RF | 368 | 110 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 24 | 28 | 42 | 22 | 7 | .326 | .380 | .415 | .356 | 14.6 | 6.5 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 2.5 |
| Ben Zobrist | Rays | AL | RF | 347 | 85 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 41 | 43 | 60 | 15 | 2 | .288 | .378 | .403 | .349 | 14.7 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 13.0 | 9.3 | 2.4 |
| David DeJesus | Royals | AL | RF | 346 | 102 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 43 | 35 | 31 | 41 | 3 | 3 | .329 | .396 | .468 | .381 | 19.1 | 5.8 | 2.6 | -4.0 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Magglio Ordonez | Tigers | AL | RF | 305 | 85 | 15 | 1 | 10 | 48 | 51 | 33 | 29 | 1 | 0 | .315 | .387 | .489 | .381 | 17.2 | 2.9 | 3.6 | -1.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| J.D. Drew | Red Sox | AL | RF | 284 | 69 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 41 | 33 | 61 | 1 | 1 | .280 | .366 | .492 | .370 | 15.0 | 1.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
| Jose Bautista | Blue Jays | AL | RF | 342 | 67 | 17 | 2 | 21 | 50 | 52 | 50 | 66 | 3 | 2 | .236 | .360 | .532 | .379 | 22.9 | -4.8 | -5.8 | -2.0 | -4.2 | 1.9 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | AL | RF | 331 | 86 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 50 | 47 | 34 | 67 | 1 | 1 | .296 | .375 | .509 | .381 | 19.2 | -3.8 | -1.2 | 2.0 | -1.0 | 1.8 |
| Alex Gonzalez | Blue Jays | AL | SS | 325 | 79 | 22 | 1 | 15 | 44 | 42 | 17 | 61 | 1 | 0 | .258 | .298 | .484 | .331 | 18.0 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 2.4 |
| Alexei Ramirez | White Sox | AL | SS | 296 | 79 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 33 | 14 | 39 | 2 | 6 | .281 | .314 | .423 | .320 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 19.0 | 12.4 | 2.2 |
| Cliff Pennington | Athletics | AL | SS | 306 | 72 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 35 | 27 | 30 | 53 | 12 | 2 | .263 | .333 | .387 | .320 | 12.7 | 9.0 | 1.6 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 1.9 |
| Marco Scutaro | Red Sox | AL | SS | 374 | 94 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 49 | 25 | 33 | 38 | 1 | 3 | .279 | .345 | .377 | .324 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | AL | SS | 378 | 96 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 55 | 39 | 31 | 51 | 9 | 3 | .281 | .347 | .404 | .333 | 16.7 | -10.1 | -0.4 | 2.0 | -2.8 | 1.4 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BRAR: Position-adjusted linear weights batting runs above replacement level. This is position-adjusted, using a weighted adjustment based on whatever positions the player has played, so for example Brett Gardner’s position-adjustment is 62% LF, 37% CF, and 1% DH.
zRS: Zone rating runs saved compared to average (sum at all positions)
uRS: UZR runs saved compared to average (sum at all positions)
dRS: Plus/minus runs saved compared to average (sum at all positions)
aRS: Average of zRS, uRS and dRS
WAR: Wins above replacement (BRAR + aRS) divided by 10
I’ve also added the Yankee starter at each position if they were not in the top three.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Yankees.com: A-Rod’s late bash powers CC’s 10th win
NEW YORK—Alex Rodriguez belted his 595th career home run to lift CC Sabathia and the Yankees to a 4-2 victory over the Mariners on Thursday at Yankee Stadium.
Rodriguez connected for a two-run homer off David Aardsma in the eighth inning, helping out Sabathia, who had pitched scoreless ball into the eighth, when the Mariners tied the game on Russell Branyan’s two-out, two-run single.
Sabathia improved to 11-0 in his last 15 starts at Yankee Stadium dating back to July 18, 2009, helping the Yankees snap their two-game losing skid and avoid a sweep by Seattle. The lefty allowed five hits, walking two and striking out four as he notched a victory in his sixth straight start.
Any time you can take one out of three at home against the mighty Mariners, you have to be pleased. Luckily, they won’t face Seattle again for another whopping seven days.
Monday, June 21, 2010
Biggest Differences between Projected RA and FIP for AL pitchers through games of June 20, 2010
Following up on this post, here are the biggest differences between projections and actuals through yesterday’s games.
| player | team | IP | p_ra | a_ra | ra_diff | p_fip | a_fip | fip_diff | ra_diff - fip_diff |
| Jeff Niemann | Rays | 92 | 5.06 | 2.84 | 22.7 | 4.65 | 4.53 | 1.2 | 21.5 |
| Francisco Liriano | Twins | 87.7 | 5.30 | 2.98 | 22.6 | 4.42 | 2.30 | 20.7 | 1.9 |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 93.7 | 5.21 | 3.07 | 22.2 | 4.34 | 3.85 | 5.1 | 17.1 |
| Fausto Carmona | Indians | 92.3 | 5.74 | 3.70 | 20.9 | 5.09 | 4.06 | 10.6 | 10.3 |
| Jason Berken | Orioles | 37 | 7.02 | 1.95 | 20.9 | 5.19 | 3.31 | 7.7 | 13.2 |
| Jason Vargas | Mariners | 84.3 | 5.30 | 3.09 | 20.7 | 4.99 | 3.84 | 10.8 | 9.9 |
| David Price | Rays | 91.7 | 5.13 | 3.14 | 20.3 | 4.87 | 3.91 | 9.8 | 10.5 |
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | 91 | 5.02 | 3.07 | 19.7 | 4.50 | 3.55 | 9.6 | 10.1 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Athletics | 83.3 | 6.33 | 4.21 | 19.6 | 5.38 | 4.10 | 11.8 | 7.8 |
| Carl Pavano | Twins | 96.3 | 5.50 | 3.74 | 18.9 | 4.47 | 4.10 | 4.0 | 14.9 |
| Andy Pettitte | Yankees | 87.3 | 4.59 | 2.78 | 17.6 | 3.94 | 3.86 | 0.8 | 16.8 |
| Eddie Bonine | Tigers | 34.3 | 6.38 | 2.10 | 16.3 | 5.07 | 4.48 | 2.2 | 14.1 |
| Ricky Romero | Blue Jays | 96.3 | 4.68 | 3.18 | 16.1 | 4.42 | 3.23 | 12.7 | 3.4 |
| Brett Cecil | Blue Jays | 70.3 | 5.61 | 3.58 | 15.9 | 4.84 | 3.63 | 9.5 | 6.4 |
| Alex Burnett | Twins | 33.3 | 6.41 | 2.70 | 13.7 | 5.10 | 3.29 | 6.7 | 7.0 |
| Dontrelle Willis | - - - | 58.3 | 6.63 | 4.78 | 12 | 5.61 | 5.02 | 3.8 | 8.2 |
| Brian Duensing | Twins | 28.7 | 5.55 | 1.88 | 11.7 | 4.62 | 4.18 | 1.4 | 10.3 |
| Joel Zumaya | Tigers | 34.7 | 5.36 | 2.34 | 11.6 | 5.26 | 1.90 | 13.0 | -1.4 |
| Chris Ray | Rangers | 30.7 | 6.33 | 2.93 | 11.6 | 4.72 | 4.90 | -0.6 | 12.2 |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | 67.3 | 5.15 | 3.61 | 11.5 | 5.17 | 4.52 | 4.9 | 6.6 |
| Sergio Santos | White Sox | 21.7 | 7.12 | 2.49 | 11.1 | 6.00 | 2.69 | 8.0 | 3.1 |
| Daniel Bard | Red Sox | 36.7 | 4.98 | 2.45 | 10.3 | 3.97 | 3.61 | 1.5 | 8.8 |
| John Danks | White Sox | 85 | 4.43 | 3.39 | 9.8 | 4.37 | 3.48 | 8.4 | 1.4 |
| Jose Valverde | Tigers | 30.3 | 3.77 | 0.89 | 9.7 | 3.83 | 3.13 | 2.4 | 7.3 |
| Andrew Bailey | Athletics | 28 | 4.65 | 1.61 | 9.5 | 4.74 | 3.34 | 4.4 | 5.1 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | Orioles | 90.7 | 5.07 | 4.17 | 9.1 | 4.77 | 4.69 | 0.8 | 8.3 |
| Jon Lester | Red Sox | 92 | 4.10 | 3.23 | 9 | 3.71 | 3.32 | 4.0 | 5.0 |
| Jeremy Bonderman | Tigers | 75.3 | 5.61 | 4.54 | 9 | 4.76 | 3.76 | 8.4 | 0.6 |
| David Hernandez | Orioles | 51.7 | 6.77 | 5.23 | 8.8 | 5.82 | 5.19 | 3.6 | 5.2 |
| Andy Sonnanstine | Rays | 38 | 5.80 | 3.79 | 8.5 | 4.66 | 4.38 | 1.2 | 7.3 |
| Manny Delcarmen | Red Sox | 32 | 4.65 | 2.25 | 8.5 | 4.12 | 5.14 | -3.6 | 12.1 |
| Armando Galarraga | Tigers | 38 | 5.55 | 3.55 | 8.4 | 5.26 | 4.83 | 1.8 | 6.6 |
| Shaun Marcum | Blue Jays | 97.3 | 4.28 | 3.51 | 8.3 | 4.52 | 3.66 | 9.3 | -1.0 |
| Ervin Santana | Angels | 92 | 5.01 | 4.21 | 8.3 | 4.42 | 4.40 | 0.2 | 8.1 |
| Kyle Farnsworth | Royals | 28.7 | 5.12 | 2.51 | 8.3 | 4.26 | 3.51 | 2.4 | 5.9 |
| Mitch Talbot | Indians | 83.3 | 5.61 | 4.75 | 8 | 4.40 | 4.75 | -3.2 | 11.2 |
| Matt Guerrier | Twins | 32 | 4.23 | 1.97 | 8 | 4.53 | 3.42 | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 94.7 | 4.26 | 3.52 | 7.8 | 4.00 | 3.04 | 10.1 | -2.3 |
| Luke Hochevar | Royals | 78 | 6.30 | 5.42 | 7.6 | 4.95 | 3.93 | 8.8 | -1.2 |
| Cliff Lee | Mariners | 77.7 | 3.77 | 2.90 | 7.6 | 3.53 | 1.96 | 13.6 | -6.0 |
| Shawn Camp | Blue Jays | 36.3 | 4.31 | 2.48 | 7.4 | 3.96 | 4.60 | -2.6 | 10.0 |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 30.7 | 4.74 | 2.64 | 7.1 | 4.11 | 2.25 | 6.3 | 0.8 |
| Phil Hughes | Yankees | 82.3 | 3.92 | 3.17 | 6.8 | 3.54 | 3.32 | 2.0 | 4.8 |
| Neftali Feliz | Rangers | 31.3 | 4.83 | 2.87 | 6.8 | 3.89 | 2.98 | 3.2 | 3.6 |
| Sergio Mitre | Yankees | 25 | 5.70 | 3.24 | 6.8 | 4.37 | 4.76 | -1.1 | 7.9 |
| Dallas Braden | Athletics | 88 | 4.66 | 3.99 | 6.6 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4.2 |
| Darren Oliver | Rangers | 31.3 | 3.58 | 1.72 | 6.4 | 3.70 | 2.43 | 4.4 | 2.0 |
| Phil Coke | Tigers | 29 | 5.33 | 3.41 | 6.2 | 4.59 | 3.48 | 3.6 | 2.6 |
| Brian Matusz | Orioles | 81 | 5.75 | 5.11 | 5.7 | 4.39 | 4.15 | 2.2 | 3.5 |
| Kanekoa Texeira | - - - | 28 | 6.30 | 4.50 | 5.6 | 5.49 | 3.52 | 6.1 | -0.5 |
| Wade Davis | Rays | 71 | 5.63 | 4.94 | 5.4 | 4.78 | 5.27 | -3.9 | 9.3 |
| Darren O’Day | Rangers | 28.3 | 3.95 | 2.22 | 5.4 | 3.68 | 3.09 | 1.9 | 3.5 |
| J.J. Putz | White Sox | 24.7 | 4.17 | 2.19 | 5.4 | 3.67 | 2.15 | 4.2 | 1.2 |
| Bruce Chen | Royals | 30.3 | 6.31 | 4.75 | 5.3 | 5.37 | 3.27 | 7.1 | -1.8 |
| Jon Rauch | Twins | 28 | 4.26 | 2.57 | 5.3 | 4.07 | 3.41 | 2.1 | 3.2 |
| Grant Balfour | Rays | 31 | 3.83 | 2.32 | 5.2 | 3.51 | 2.52 | 3.4 | 1.8 |
| Rafael Soriano | Rays | 25.7 | 3.56 | 1.75 | 5.1 | 3.34 | 2.54 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 94 | 4.08 | 3.64 | 4.6 | 3.44 | 3.41 | 0.3 | 4.3 |
| Craig Breslow | Athletics | 30.7 | 4.16 | 2.93 | 4.2 | 4.14 | 3.82 | 1.1 | 3.1 |
| Matt Harrison | Rangers | 44.3 | 6.31 | 5.48 | 4.1 | 4.93 | 5.30 | -1.8 | 5.9 |
| Tyson Ross | Athletics | 34.3 | 6.82 | 5.77 | 4 | 5.79 | 4.10 | 6.4 | -2.4 |
| Dustin Nippert | Rangers | 32.3 | 5.92 | 5.01 | 3.3 | 4.92 | 5.02 | -0.4 | 3.7 |
| C.J. Wilson | Rangers | 89.7 | 4.34 | 4.01 | 3.2 | 3.65 | 3.99 | -3.4 | 6.6 |
| Chris Perez | Indians | 26.3 | 4.85 | 3.76 | 3.2 | 4.72 | 4.83 | -0.3 | 3.5 |
| Joel Pineiro | Angels | 91 | 4.84 | 4.55 | 3 | 4.10 | 4.09 | 0.1 | 2.9 |
| Fernando Rodney | Angels | 27.3 | 4.59 | 3.62 | 2.9 | 4.38 | 4.85 | -1.4 | 4.3 |
| Kevin Jepsen | Angels | 23.7 | 6.06 | 4.94 | 2.9 | 4.54 | 2.69 | 4.9 | -2.0 |
| Will Ohman | Orioles | 22.3 | 4.34 | 3.22 | 2.8 | 4.38 | 4.32 | 0.1 | 2.7 |
| Shawn Kelley | Mariners | 25 | 4.77 | 3.96 | 2.2 | 4.66 | 5.28 | -1.7 | 3.9 |
| Daisuke Matsuzaka | Red Sox | 49 | 5.14 | 4.78 | 2 | 4.63 | 4.02 | 3.3 | -1.3 |
| Mariano Rivera | Yankees | 24.3 | 2.55 | 1.85 | 1.9 | 2.70 | 2.87 | -0.5 | 2.4 |
| Matt Albers | Orioles | 31.7 | 5.82 | 5.40 | 1.5 | 4.60 | 6.23 | -5.7 | 7.2 |
| Jerry Blevins | Athletics | 24.3 | 4.95 | 4.44 | 1.4 | 4.09 | 4.02 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Kevin Gregg | Blue Jays | 29 | 4.45 | 4.03 | 1.3 | 4.49 | 3.99 | 1.6 | -0.3 |
| Robinson Tejeda | Royals | 32.3 | 4.72 | 4.45 | 1 | 4.34 | 3.57 | 2.8 | -1.8 |
| Randy Williams | White Sox | 24 | 5.99 | 5.63 | 1 | 4.97 | 5.45 | -1.3 | 2.3 |
| Freddy Garcia | White Sox | 78 | 5.07 | 4.96 | 0.9 | 4.31 | 4.85 | -4.7 | 5.6 |
| Kevin Slowey | Twins | 76.7 | 4.79 | 4.70 | 0.8 | 4.14 | 4.41 | -2.3 | 3.1 |
| Brad Ziegler | Athletics | 34 | 3.92 | 3.71 | 0.8 | 3.77 | 4.46 | -2.6 | 3.4 |
| Tony Pena | White Sox | 33.3 | 5.05 | 4.86 | 0.7 | 4.03 | 4.52 | -1.8 | 2.5 |
| Joakim Soria | Royals | 25.7 | 3.02 | 2.81 | 0.6 | 3.18 | 3.36 | -0.5 | 1.1 |
| Dan Wheeler | Rays | 21.7 | 4.35 | 4.15 | 0.5 | 4.43 | 3.80 | 1.5 | -1.0 |
| Justin Duchscherer | Athletics | 28 | 3.64 | 3.54 | 0.3 | 3.84 | 4.70 | -2.7 | 3.0 |
| Matt Garza | Rays | 88.7 | 4.27 | 4.26 | 0.1 | 4.29 | 4.60 | -3.1 | 3.2 |
| Lance Cormier | Rays | 28.7 | 4.69 | 4.71 | -0.1 | 4.61 | 5.01 | -1.3 | 1.2 |
| Rafael Perez | Indians | 23.3 | 4.97 | 5.01 | -0.1 | 4.00 | 3.33 | 1.7 | -1.8 |
| Jason Bulger | Angels | 21.7 | 3.97 | 4.15 | -0.4 | 3.59 | 4.63 | -2.5 | 2.1 |
| Aaron Laffey | Indians | 25.7 | 5.39 | 5.61 | -0.6 | 4.83 | 3.98 | 2.4 | -3.0 |
| Matt Thornton | White Sox | 29.7 | 3.12 | 3.34 | -0.7 | 2.82 | 1.68 | 3.8 | -4.5 |
| Casey Janssen | Blue Jays | 30 | 5.10 | 5.40 | -1 | 4.09 | 3.73 | 1.2 | -2.2 |
| Scott Linebrink | White Sox | 24.7 | 5.12 | 5.47 | -1 | 4.49 | 5.11 | -1.7 | 0.7 |
| Scott Downs | Blue Jays | 29.7 | 3.26 | 3.64 | -1.2 | 3.57 | 3.54 | 0.1 | -1.3 |
| Hideki Okajima | Red Sox | 23.3 | 4.01 | 4.63 | -1.6 | 4.02 | 4.83 | -2.1 | 0.5 |
| Scott Baker | Twins | 85.7 | 4.23 | 4.41 | -1.8 | 4.03 | 3.94 | 0.9 | -2.7 |
| Ryan Perry | Tigers | 21.7 | 4.90 | 5.82 | -2.2 | 4.50 | 4.68 | -0.4 | -1.8 |
| Frank Francisco | Rangers | 31 | 3.98 | 4.65 | -2.3 | 3.40 | 2.72 | 2.3 | -4.6 |
| Jonathan Papelbon | Red Sox | 29.3 | 2.68 | 3.38 | -2.3 | 2.86 | 4.60 | -5.7 | 3.4 |
| Bobby Jenks | White Sox | 26.7 | 3.96 | 4.73 | -2.3 | 3.74 | 2.98 | 2.3 | -4.6 |
| Brandon Morrow | Blue Jays | 76 | 4.68 | 4.97 | -2.4 | 4.70 | 3.70 | 8.4 | -10.8 |
| David Aardsma | Mariners | 22 | 4.06 | 5.32 | -3.1 | 3.95 | 4.29 | -0.8 | -2.3 |
| Brandon League | Mariners | 37 | 4.34 | 5.11 | -3.2 | 3.88 | 4.31 | -1.8 | -1.4 |
| David Robertson | Yankees | 21.3 | 4.14 | 5.48 | -3.2 | 3.25 | 4.61 | -3.2 | 0.0 |
| John Lackey | Red Sox | 87.3 | 4.40 | 4.74 | -3.3 | 3.92 | 4.68 | -7.4 | 4.1 |
| Dana Eveland | - - - | 51.7 | 6.05 | 6.62 | -3.3 | 4.97 | 5.23 | -1.5 | -1.8 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 103.7 | 3.50 | 3.82 | -3.7 | 3.52 | 3.56 | -0.5 | -3.2 |
| Joba Chamberlain | Yankees | 29.3 | 4.71 | 5.83 | -3.7 | 4.11 | 2.31 | 5.9 | -9.6 |
| Jason Frasor | Blue Jays | 26.3 | 3.77 | 5.13 | -4 | 3.59 | 3.28 | 0.9 | -4.9 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 100.3 | 3.48 | 3.86 | -4.2 | 3.26 | 4.17 | -10.1 | 5.9 |
| Jake Westbrook | Indians | 85 | 4.42 | 4.87 | -4.3 | 4.41 | 4.75 | -3.2 | -1.1 |
| Brian Bannister | Royals | 79 | 5.40 | 5.92 | -4.6 | 4.67 | 5.34 | -5.9 | 1.3 |
| Jesse Crain | Twins | 28 | 4.56 | 6.11 | -4.8 | 4.00 | 4.09 | -0.3 | -4.5 |
| Kyle Davies | Royals | 74.7 | 5.66 | 6.27 | -5 | 5.04 | 4.61 | 3.6 | -8.6 |
| Mark Hendrickson | Orioles | 35.7 | 5.56 | 6.81 | -5 | 4.72 | 4.55 | 0.7 | -5.7 |
| Matt Palmer | Angels | 23 | 5.07 | 7.04 | -5 | 4.73 | 5.03 | -0.8 | -4.2 |
| Jamey Wright | Indians | 21.3 | 5.37 | 7.59 | -5.3 | 4.80 | 4.51 | 0.7 | -6.0 |
| Scott Kazmir | Angels | 72.7 | 4.65 | 5.33 | -5.5 | 4.14 | 5.33 | -9.6 | 4.1 |
| David Huff | Indians | 70 | 6.03 | 6.81 | -6.1 | 5.09 | 5.69 | -4.7 | -1.4 |
| A.J. Burnett | Yankees | 87.3 | 4.30 | 4.95 | -6.3 | 3.95 | 4.69 | -7.2 | 0.9 |
| Scot Shields | Angels | 23.7 | 4.43 | 6.85 | -6.3 | 4.12 | 5.23 | -2.9 | -3.4 |
| Tony Sipp | Indians | 23 | 4.90 | 7.43 | -6.5 | 4.64 | 7.03 | -6.1 | -0.4 |
| Mark Buehrle | White Sox | 84 | 4.39 | 5.14 | -7 | 4.22 | 4.13 | 0.8 | -7.8 |
| Gavin Floyd | White Sox | 83 | 4.65 | 5.42 | -7.1 | 4.27 | 3.74 | 4.9 | -12.0 |
| Brian Tallet | Blue Jays | 31 | 4.90 | 6.97 | -7.1 | 4.54 | 6.26 | -5.9 | -1.2 |
| Tim Wakefield | Red Sox | 79.3 | 4.86 | 5.67 | -7.2 | 4.78 | 4.78 | 0.0 | -7.2 |
| Kevin Millwood | Orioles | 96.7 | 4.89 | 5.59 | -7.4 | 4.37 | 5.13 | -8.2 | 0.8 |
| Jeff Suppan | - - - | 39.7 | 5.56 | 7.26 | -7.5 | 5.37 | 5.17 | 0.9 | -8.4 |
| Justin Masterson | Indians | 81.3 | 4.69 | 5.53 | -7.6 | 4.36 | 4.06 | 2.7 | -10.3 |
| James Shields | Rays | 92 | 4.39 | 5.18 | -8.1 | 4.05 | 4.05 | 0.0 | -8.1 |
| Chad Gaudin | - - - | 29.3 | 5.04 | 7.67 | -8.6 | 4.30 | 6.23 | -6.3 | -2.3 |
| Jake Peavy | White Sox | 92.3 | 4.20 | 5.07 | -8.9 | 3.63 | 4.33 | -7.2 | -1.7 |
| Nick Blackburn | Twins | 76 | 4.84 | 5.92 | -9.2 | 4.44 | 5.49 | -8.9 | -0.3 |
| Zack Greinke | Royals | 96 | 3.61 | 4.50 | -9.5 | 3.12 | 3.92 | -8.5 | -1.0 |
| Joe Saunders | Angels | 87 | 4.80 | 5.79 | -9.6 | 4.73 | 5.30 | -5.5 | -4.1 |
| Javier Vazquez | Yankees | 70 | 3.76 | 5.01 | -9.7 | 3.37 | 5.21 | -14.3 | 4.6 |
| Ian Snell | Mariners | 46.3 | 5.06 | 6.99 | -10 | 4.50 | 6.57 | -10.6 | 0.6 |
| Max Scherzer | Tigers | 73 | 4.92 | 6.29 | -11.1 | 4.00 | 4.78 | -6.3 | -4.8 |
| Gil Meche | Royals | 48.7 | 5.09 | 7.21 | -11.5 | 4.44 | 6.06 | -8.8 | -2.7 |
| Scott Feldman | Rangers | 83.7 | 4.77 | 6.02 | -11.6 | 4.54 | 4.49 | 0.5 | -12.1 |
| Bob Howry | - - - | 23.7 | 4.50 | 9.13 | -12.2 | 4.06 | 7.55 | -9.2 | -3.0 |
| Brad Bergesen | Orioles | 54 | 5.53 | 7.67 | -12.8 | 4.59 | 5.83 | -7.4 | -5.4 |
| Ben Sheets | Athletics | 87.3 | 3.86 | 5.36 | -14.5 | 3.72 | 5.01 | -12.5 | -2.0 |
| Rick Porcello | Tigers | 70.3 | 4.97 | 6.91 | -15.1 | 4.94 | 4.85 | 0.7 | -15.8 |
| Rich Harden | Rangers | 65 | 4.13 | 6.23 | -15.2 | 4.11 | 6.40 | -16.5 | 1.3 |
| Josh Beckett | Red Sox | 45.7 | 4.26 | 7.88 | -18.4 | 3.72 | 4.67 | -4.8 | -13.6 |
| Ryan Rowland-Smith | Mariners | 61.7 | 4.39 | 7.30 | -19.9 | 4.40 | 6.69 | -15.7 | -4.2 |
*minimum of 20 innings
p_ra: Projected runs allowed per nine innings
a_ra: Actual runs allowed per nine inning
ra_diff: Run value of difference between p_ra and a_ra, calculated as (a_ra - p_ra) divided by nine times IP
p_fip: Projected FIP
a_fip: Actual YTD FIP
fip_diff: Run value of difference between p_fip and a_fip, calculated the same way as ra_diff
This list is sorted by the difference between the run value of a pitcher’s projected RA and their actual RA. The higher the number, the more valuable the pitcher has been.
So far Andy Pettitte has been the Yankee pitcher who’s most exceeded his projection in terms of RA. However, he’s actually been pitching right around where FIP expected if you look at the difference there. So why has Pettitte been so much better? Basically it’s:
- the fact that he’s had a .258 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) against, compared to a career value of .314
- the fact that 81.8% of the runners he’s allowed have been stranded compared to a career rate of about 71.5%. This is known as the battle factor.
Unfortunately, what this means is it’s more likely that Pettitte will be worse going forward than he’s been so far. As long as he pitches to his FIP going forward he’ll still be pretty good.
Joining Pettitte at the top of the list is Phil Hughes, who some of you may be familiar with. At the bottom of the list are the other three members of the starting rotation. Javier Vazquez has obviously been pitching better of late, and hopefully CC Sabathia’s start yesterday was a sign of things to come. A.J. Burnett is showing his characteristic streakiness, and so far his fastball has been down about one mph compared to last season. The biggest problem Burnett’s been having is a drop in his K rate, and he’s only striking out about 6.5 batters per nine compared to 8.5 in 2009, 9.4 in 2008 and 9.6 in 2007. His BABIP is around where it normally is.
The less said about the pen, the better. Mo’s been Mo, although his walk rate’s been a bit worse than typical Mo. One thing I noticed is that Mo’s throwing more non-cutters than he did last season (13.1% compared to 7.1%), which could be an adjustment he’s made consciously. If he’s using those pitches strategically to set up the cutter or to give batters something else to think about, the higher BB rate is perhaps less of a concern. And it’s not like a 1.85 BB/9 rate is bad, we’re just spoiled.
FIP thinks Joba’s awesome, although some of the difference here is due to projections that assumed Chamberlain would be more of a starter than a reliever. His BABIP against is .384 this year, which is probably going to come down so he should be better going forward. I don’t know if I think Joba’s performance this year is all about “luck” though, and I’m not sure how much we should expect his BABIP to drop by.
The Yankees projected to score about 895 runs and allow about 734 this year. At their current pace, they’d end the year at 880 runs scored and 646 runs allowed. Robinson Cano has effectively canceled out Mark Teixeira’s under-performance with how much he’s exceed his projection, and better than projected play by Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner have basically covered the Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez under-performance.
So this is still a good team, even though an anonymous scout disagrees.