Saturday, October 14, 2017
2017 Cubs vs. Dodgers NLCS Postseason Odds
Since Discofever asked, here’s a quick overview of the NLCS teams and their projections. It’s the National League, so I can’t pretend to be well-versed enough in either team to present much beyond what the data says so here it is.
First, the Cubs position players.
|Tommy La Stella||IF||4.00||.270/.349/.393||2.60||0.47|
I should note here that I’m using outs based on 24 times seven games instead of 27 because of the arcane rules in this league that require every team have three automatic outs among their 27. Then again, without that rule, we wouldn’t have the tactical excitement that only the double switch can bring.
Next up, the Dodgers.
And now, the Cubs pitching staff (which is kind of discombulated at the moment).
|Carl Edwards Jr.||RP||3.00||1.20|
Lastly, the Dodgers.
At one point in the year, the Dodgers were threatening the 1998 Yankees as the best team of all time. Luckily for us, they went into a major slump and finished the year as a merely great team. I don’t know if they’re better than Houston on a talent basis, but they are close enough to have an argument for it. These projections and depth charts have them scoring 33.78 runs per game and allowing 21.67, which is a 70.8% winning percentage. The Cubs are essentially the same offensively at 33.81 runs per game, but their pitching is a couple of runs worse.
The Cubs are still a very good team, and can certainly win this series. But the Dodgers should be favored, and using these numbers I’d put the odds for getting the chance to get beat by Houston at Dodgers 54.1%, Cubs 45.9%.
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