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Wednesday, July 11, 2012

2012 Yankee Starting Pitcher Projections vs. Actuals at the All Star Break

Although they didn’t stat the season off all that well, the Yankees’ starting pitchers have been probably the biggest contributors to their place in the standings over the last two months.  Here’s a look at how they’ve performed vs. their projections so far.

We start with CC Sabathia.

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	107	103	42	39	9	30	95	3.57	3.24	3.23	26	2.6
davenport	107	98	46	45	9	31	88	3.86	3.81	3.44	22	2.2
marcel	107	100	42	38	8	31	94	3.55	3.24	3.24	26	2.6
oliver	107	103	46	42	8	29	90	3.88	3.54	3.24	22	2.2
pecota	107	101	42	38	9	26	96	3.52	3.21	3.16	27	2.7
steamer	107	100	47	43	10	33	96	3.96	3.61	3.49	21	2.1
zips	107	104	45	42	9	31	93	3.80	3.55	3.36	23	2.3
average	107	101	44	41	9	30	93	3.73	3.46	3.31	24	2.4
2012	107	107	50	41	10	29	105	4.21	3.45	3.15	18	1.8
diff		6	6	0	1	-1	12	0.47	-0.01	-0.16	-6	-0.6

Sabathia’s allowed six more hits and runs than he projected to, despite being pretty close to his projected HR and walk rates and with 12 more strike outs than projected.  While his velocity is down somewhat from his average velocity in 2011, it’s not down as much if you compare it to his first half velocity in 2011.  He tends to throw harder and pitch better as the year moves on, and I don’t see any reason to think that won’t happen again this year.

RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
diff: Difference between 2012 and average projection

The projections expected a rough transition for Hiroki Kuroda, but he’s defied them so far.

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	108	115	55	48	13	27	76	4.57	4.01	3.92	14	1.4
davenport	108	110	57	56	12	26	69	4.73	4.67	3.99	12	1.2
marcel	108	105	47	41	11	29	84	3.89	3.44	3.69	22	2.2
oliver	108	108	51	45	12	26	81	4.25	3.76	3.73	18	1.8
pecota	108	115	58	51	13	28	74	4.79	4.24	4.09	11	1.1
steamer	108	111	56	50	12	26	75	4.67	4.13	3.92	13	1.3
zips	108	116	55	52	15	28	77	4.62	4.33	4.28	14	1.4
average	108	111	54	49	13	27	77	4.50	4.08	3.95	15	1.5
2012	108	104	46	42	13	32	83	3.83	3.50	4.00	23	2.3
diff		-7	-8	-7	0	5	6	-0.67	-0.58	0.05	8	0.8

Kuroda’s given up fewer hits and runs than he projected to, although his HR rate is spot on and he’s walked a few more hitters than expected.  He’s also struck out a few more and has been close to a win better than expected so far this year.  He’s probably not going to be as effective over the second half as he’s been so far, but he should still be solid.

For me, the most pleasant development on the 2012 Yankees has been Ivan Nova, and this table will show why.

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	110	115	60	55	12	44	68	4.93	4.50	4.52	10	1.0
davenport	110	109	52	51	11	42	66	4.24	4.17	4.33	18	1.8
marcel	110	105	50	45	9	37	75	4.06	3.69	3.85	21	2.1
oliver	110	115	58	53	10	41	67	4.74	4.30	4.23	12	1.2
pecota	110	125	68	61	13	44	63	5.53	5.03	4.64	3	0.3
steamer	110	116	62	56	10	45	68	5.08	4.61	4.27	8	0.8
zips	110	116	58	54	12	37	69	4.74	4.44	4.33	12	1.2
average	110	115	58	54	11	41	68	4.76	4.39	4.31	12	1.2
2012	110	119	53	48	17	33	100	4.34	3.93	4.25	17	1.7
diff		4	-5	-6	6	-8	32	-0.43	-0.47	-0.05	5	0.5

The two most important numbers here IMO are that he’s walking fewer hitters than he projected to and striking out a lot more hitters than he projected to.  Those two numbers stabilize much more quickly than any others, so we have pretty good evidence that Nova’s moved from decent back of the rotation starter to someone who can pitch in the middle of the rotation, and I’m not sure he’s done improving.  His HR rate has hurt his overall effectiveness and will probably be an issue as long as he calls DNYS home, but if he can get that down a bit more he may be the second best starter on the Yankees by the end of the year.  Then again, he probably was last year too.

An ugly April has Phil Hughes’s numbers looking a bit underwhelming, but he’s been much better since then.

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	99	102	51	49	13	34	77	4.63	4.49	4.26	12	1.2
davenport	99	97	50	49	12	30	73	4.53	4.47	4.09	13	1.3
marcel	99	94	48	47	12	33	81	4.37	4.28	3.96	15	1.5
oliver	99	99	45	44	12	33	79	4.11	4.03	4.02	18	1.8
pecota	99	95	43	42	12	34	87	3.92	3.84	3.89	20	2.0
steamer	99	99	48	47	14	34	76	4.40	4.31	4.45	15	1.5
zips	99	102	57	53	15	36	77	5.21	4.84	4.55	6	0.6
average	99	98	49	48	13	33	79	4.45	4.32	4.18	14	1.4
2012	99	107	54	48	19	23	92	4.91	4.36	4.42	9	0.9
diff		9	5	0	6	-10	13	0.45	0.04	0.25	-5	-0.5

Hughes is a bit behind his projected value, but like Nova he’s shown an improved walk rate and strikeout rate.  Also like Nova his HR rate has been an issue.  But I think we have to be happy with how he’s pitched over the last two months.

I only had three projections for Andy Pettitte (CAIRO, Marcel, and Steamer) but here is how he’s done so far.

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	58	61	28	26	6	19	42	4.33	4.01	4.00	9	0.9
marcel	58	58	27	25	6	21	44	4.19	3.82	4.07	10	1.0
steamer	58	55	25	23	5	17	54	3.92	3.57	3.34	12	1.2
average	58	58	27	25	6	19	47	4.14	3.82	3.80	10	1.0
2012	58	49	23	21	7	15	59	3.56	3.25	3.31	14	1.4
diff		-9	-4	-4	1	-4	12	-0.58	-0.57	-0.49	4	0.4

Pettitte’s been better than projected in just about every way, and let’s hope that continues when he gets back in September.

Sample size means I’m going to skip over Freddy Garcia, David Phelps and Adam Warren for now.  But I’ll look at Garcia and Phelps as part of the bullpen.