---

Monday, July 9, 2012

2012 Yankee Position Player Projections vs. Actuals at the All Star Break Part 2

Continuing on from the first post, here’s how Mark Teixeira has performed vs. his projections.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
cairo	347	298	49	78	17	1	17	55	2	1	41	57	7	5	.263	.359	.493	.368	52	97	17
davenport	347	302	48	79	16	1	19	54	2	1	40	59	6	6	.263	.360	.509	.375	53	100	16
marcel	347	299	48	78	16	1	17	53	2	1	39	58	7	6	.259	.352	.489	.363	51	95	16
oliver	347	300	43	76	17	1	15	49	1	1	38	54	7	5	.254	.345	.464	.351	48	89	12
pecota	347	299	49	81	17	0	17	50	1	0	42	60	7	6	.271	.371	.501	.379	54	101	19
zips	347	298	47	78	17	1	17	58	1	1	40	59	7	6	.263	.359	.495	.368	52	97	17
average	347	298	49	78	17	1	17	53	1	1	40	58	7	6	.263	.357	.494	.367	52	97	16
2012	347	300	49	75	20	1	15	49	2	1	37	50	7	4	.250	.334	.473	.347	48	89	15
diff			0	-3	3	0	-2	-4	1	0	-3	-8	0	-2	-.013	-.023	-.021	-.020

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
diff: Difference between 2012 and average projection

Teixeira’s been another disappointment so far this year, although he’s hit .275/.373/.544 over his last 51 games after hitting .212/.269/.364 in his first 30.  I was hoping for a bounce back above and beyond his projections somewhere in the area of that first line, but it doesn’t look like it’s meant to be.  Teixeira’s been about two runs worse than his projection so far, so hopefully he’ll be a bit better as the season moves on.

Moving onto happier things, you can make the case that Robinson Cano has been the most valuable player in the AL so far this year.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
cairo	366	336	53	102	23	2	14	54	3	2	23	45	10	4	.303	.352	.504	.368	55	97	25
davenport	366	338	49	100	22	3	15	61	3	2	23	45	9	5	.297	.351	.510	.370	55	99	27
marcel	366	335	53	103	23	2	14	55	4	2	23	46	10	4	.306	.356	.512	.372	56	99	27
oliver	366	337	47	102	24	2	11	51	3	2	22	41	11	4	.304	.350	.486	.361	53	93	23
pecota	366	341	48	100	22	2	12	51	3	2	21	45	10	4	.295	.344	.482	.357	52	92	22
zips	366	336	51	100	23	3	14	57	3	2	22	42	10	4	.299	.347	.506	.365	54	97	25
average	366	336	53	102	23	2	13	55	3	2	22	44	10	4	.303	.351	.503	.366	54	97	25
2012	366	332	57	104	26	1	20	57	1	1	31	53	10	2	.313	.374	.578	.404	65	115	29
diff			4	2	3	-1	7	2	-2	-1	9	9	0	-2	.011	.024	.075	.038

Cano hit .301/.344/.452 in 157 PA from April 6 to May 15, and since then he’s hit .323/.397/.677 in 209 PA, with 17 HRs.  He ranks sixth in the AL in batting runs behind David Ortiz, Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera, Mark Trumbo and Mike Trout, but he’s also the only middle infielder in the group.  He’s got a legitimate case for MVP right now and hopefully he’ll have an even better one by year’s end.
 
You have to ding him a bit for his less than impressive hitting with runners in scoring position, but that appears to be correcting itself.  He’s about four runs ahead of his projections in terms of batting runs, and most impressively to me is slugging .075 points better than projected.  I really have no idea why the Yankees haven’t extended him yet, because his price tag is going to keep going up.

The last player I’ll look at in this post is Nick Swisher.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
cairo	318	271	43	70	16	1	12	42	1	1	41	65	8	2	.259	.356	.455	.354	44	90	14
davenport	318	273	38	72	14	1	14	41	1	1	43	65	7	2	.265	.369	.478	.370	47	96	14
marcel	318	272	42	72	16	1	13	42	1	1	39	65	7	3	.264	.356	.465	.357	45	91	14
oliver	318	272	38	71	16	1	11	41	1	1	40	64	8	2	.260	.354	.441	.349	42	87	12
pecota	318	272	41	68	15	1	12	39	1	1	43	70	7	3	.251	.359	.444	.354	43	89	13
zips	318	270	41	68	15	1	13	44	1	1	43	70	8	2	.253	.358	.456	.356	44	90	14
average	318	271	43	70	15	1	12	41	1	1	41	66	7	2	.259	.358	.458	.357	44	90	14
2012	318	279	36	73	21	0	13	36	1	1	32	70	5	2	.262	.336	.477	.349	44	91	14
diff			-7	3	6	-1	1	-5	0	0	-9	4	-2	0	.002	-.022	.019	-.008

Swisher’s traded some OBP for SLG which is generally not a great idea.  But his overall value has been right about where it projected to be.  I suppose one could conceivably make the case that with some combination of Raul Ibanez, Russell Martin and the LF of the day behind him the slugging to drive in the five guys in front of him is worth more than being on base for the people behind him to knock him in would be.  But that also means he’s making more outs and costing the better hitters more PA as well.

Next post will cover the rest of the key position players, including one who has shocked the world by remaining a Yankee at the All Star Break.