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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Monday, October 29, 2012

2012 In Review - Raul Ibanez

I wasn’t a huge fan of the Raul Ibanez signing at the time it was announced.  I figured he was too old and was in steep decline and would end up getting released by the All Star break.  Ibanez ended up having a better year than I expected, although it was not so much in his overall performance as in his penchant for coming through in more important situations.  That is not necessarily a skill, but it allowed Ibanez to provide value than you’d expect out of a LF/DH with an OBP of .308.  Here is a look at Ibanez’s projections compared to his actual 2012 performance.

Projection PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP avg obp slg wOBA BR BR/650 BRAR
cairo 609 549 76 146 34 3 22 87 4 2 52 111 14 2 .266 .329 .458 .340 80 85 22
davenport 417 383 49 100 23 2 16 51 2 2 34 75 13 0 .261 .321 .457 .337 53 83 11
marcel 551 497 66 126 29 3 19 74 4 1 45 105 13 2 .254 .314 .439 .325 67 79 15
oliver 577 523 63 128 28 2 17 69 3 1 46 104 15 1 .245 .303 .403 .308 63 70 8
pecota 552 507 66 126 28 2 17 66 2 1 43 109 13 2 .249 .310 .413 .317 62 73 10
zips 540 494 62 125 28 2 18 83 3 1 40 98 12 1 .253 .307 .427 .318 63 76 12
average 541 488 68 130 28 2 18 71 3 1 43 100 13 1 .266 .323 .437 .324 68 81 16
Projection PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP avg obp slg wOBA BR BR/650 BRAR
cairo 425 383 53 102 24 2 15 61 3 1 36 77 10 2 .266 .329 .458 .340 56 85 15
davenport 425 390 50 102 23 2 16 52 2 2 35 76 13 0 .261 .321 .457 .337 54 83 11
marcel 425 383 51 97 22 2 15 57 3 1 35 81 10 2 .254 .314 .439 .325 52 79 11
oliver 425 385 46 94 21 1 13 51 2 1 34 77 11 1 .245 .303 .403 .308 46 70 6
pecota 425 390 51 97 22 2 13 51 2 1 33 84 10 2 .249 .310 .413 .317 48 73 8
zips 425 389 49 98 22 2 14 65 2 1 31 77 9 1 .253 .307 .427 .318 50 76 9
average 425 383 53 102 22 2 14 56 2 1 34 79 11 1 .266 .323 .446 .332 53 81 13
2012 425 384 50 92 19 3 19 50 3 0 35 67 14 4 .240 .308 .453 .328 53 81 12
diff -3 -10 -3 1 5 -6 1 -1 1 -12 3 3 -.027 -.014 .007 -.004
2012 League Avg 425 382 50 98 19 2 12 48 7 2 34 82 9 4 .255 .320 .411 .311 49 75
2011 425 395 48 97 23 1 15 62 1 0 24 78 10 1 .245 .289 .419 .305 46 71 6

diff: Difference between average projection and 2012 actual statistic
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position

The second set of projections, league average and 2011 stats are pro-rated to 2012 PA to allow a direct comparison.  League average is not adjusted for DNYS so mentally account for that.

Ibanez ended up playing more LF than DH due to Brett Gardner’s injury.  That made his offense a bit more valuable than it would have been as a pure DH.  Still, a .308 OBP from a LF/DH is underwhelming.  But of Ibanez’s 19 regular season home runs, 3 tied the game and 7 put the Yankees ahead.  Some of the highlights were:

June 23 vs. the Mets, where Ibanez hit a three run homer in the seventh inning to tie the game at 3 in a game the Yankees would eventually win 4-3.
July 16 vs. the Blue Jays, where Ibanez hit a grand slam in the bottom of the eighth to break a 2-2 tie in a game the Yankees won 6-3.
September 22 vs. the A’s, a game that Ibanez entered as a pinch-hitter in the fifth.  He hit a tie-breaking homer in that plate appearance, although the A’s eventually tied the game.  It went into the 13th at which point the A’s scored 4 runs to ice the game, or so they thought.  The Yankees got three singles to lead off their half of the 13th and a wild pitch scored Ichiro to pull them within one.  With 1B open the A’s didn’t want to put the tying run on base so they had Pat Neshek try to pitch to Ibanez again.  Bad move.  His three-run homer tied the game and sent it to the 14th, and an Eduardo Nunez grounder that was booted won the game for the Yankees in the bottom of the 14th.
October 2 vs. Boston, on a day where the Orioles won 1-0 and where a loss would have dropped the Yankees into a tie for first place in the AL East with Baltimore, Ibanez came through again.  Facing a putrid version of the Red Sox the Yankees trailed 3-1 entering the bottom of the ninth.  Curtis Granderson singled then Ibanez pinch-hit for Nun-E and homered off Andrew Bailey to tie the game at 3.  Neither team scored again until the bottom of the 12th.  After two quick outs Francisco Cervelli and Granderson drew walks at then Ibanez grounded a single through the SS hole against lefty Andrew Miller to drive in the winning run.  It was the first time in 2012 the Yankees won a game they trailed entering the ninth, and it was probably the most important regular season win of the year.
October 10 vs. Baltimore in Game 3 of the ALDS.  Joe Girardi shocked the world by pinch-hitting for Alex Rodriguez with one out in the bottom of the ninth, and the Shockmaster™ shocked the world by homering against Jim Johnson to tie the game at 2.  Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher, Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson, Russell Martin, Eric Chavez, Jayson Nix and Ichiro proceeded to make outs in the next eight Yankee PAs which brought up Ibanez again and he shocked the world again by homering off Brian Matusz leading off the 12th and give the Yankees a 2-1 series lead instead of a 1-2 series deficit.

Ibanez’s ALDS Game 3 performance will go down in history as one of the greatest performances ever in the postseason and it was probably my favorite game of the 2012 season.

October 13 vs. Detroit in Game of the ALCS.  Ibanez tied the game with a two-out, two-run homer in the bottom of the ninth.  Unfortunately, it was all for naught as the Yankees ended up losing the game on their way to getting swept.  Kind of like how Detroit just got swept.  Ha ha.

Memorable moments aside, Ibanez had a really long stretch of terrible play (263 PA of .198/.274/.338 between May 21 through September 19) and that cost the team games.  He also took particularly good advantage of his disgraceful bandbox (.273/.349/.545 with 14 HRs in 209 home PA vs. .208/.269/.365 in 216 road PA) and vs. RHP(.248/.319/.492 in 360 PA compared to .197/.246/.246 in 65 PA).  Despite that, I’ll look back mostly fondly on Ibanez’s 2012 season because of the times he came through when the team needed him most. 

While I wouldn’t be opposed to an Ibanez return in 2013, provided he’s restricted to DH against RHP, I’m not sure that’s an optimal use of a roster spot for a team that is going to be old and is going to need some flexibility to account for that age.

--Posted at 8:31 am by SG / 11 Comments | - (0)



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