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Tuesday, November 6, 2012

2012 In Review - Nick Swisher

Getting Nick Swisher has been one of Brian Cashman’s best moves.  Swisher provided the Yankees with four strong regular seasons at a below market rate while costing the Yankees nothing they’ve really missed.  Swisher’s 2012 was probably the second best season of his Yankee career.  Here’s how it compared to his projections.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
cairo	626	533	84	138	31	1	24	82	2	2	80	129	15	5	.259	.357	.455	.354	86	90	27
davenport	594	510	71	135	26	1	27	76	1	2	80	121	13	4	.265	.370	.478	.370	87	96	27
marcel	581	497	76	131	29	1	23	76	2	2	71	119	13	5	.264	.358	.465	.357	81	91	26
oliver	599	512	72	133	31	1	20	77	1	1	75	120	15	4	.260	.355	.441	.349	80	87	23
pecota	600	514	78	129	28	1	23	73	2	1	81	132	13	5	.251	.360	.444	.354	82	89	25
zips	587	498	76	126	27	1	24	82	1	2	80	129	14	4	.253	.359	.456	.356	81	90	25
average	598	509	80	132	29	1	23	78	2	2	78	125	14	4	.259	.360	.458	.357	83	90	26
Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
cairo	624	531	84	138	31	1	24	82	2	2	80	129	15	5	.259	.356	.455	.354	86	90	27
davenport	624	536	75	142	27	1	28	80	1	2	84	127	14	4	.265	.369	.478	.370	92	96	28
marcel	624	534	82	141	31	1	25	82	2	2	76	128	14	5	.264	.356	.465	.357	87	91	28
oliver	624	533	75	139	32	1	21	80	1	1	78	125	16	4	.260	.354	.441	.349	83	87	24
pecota	624	534	81	134	29	1	24	76	2	1	84	137	14	5	.251	.359	.444	.354	85	89	26
zips	624	529	81	134	29	1	26	87	1	2	85	137	15	4	.253	.358	.456	.356	86	90	27
average	624	531	84	138	30	1	25	81	2	2	81	130	14	5	.259	.358	.458	.357	87	90	28
2012	624	537	75	146	36	0	24	75	2	3	77	141	9	4	.272	.364	.473	.364	91	94	31
diff			-9	8	6	-1	-1	-6	0	1	-4	11	-5	-1	.013	.005	.015	.008
2012 League Avg	624	561	73	143	28	3	18	70	11	4	50	120	13	5	.255	.320	.411	.311	72	75
2011	624	517	80	135	29	0	23	84	2	2	93	123	18	5	.260	.373	.449	.362	88	91	28

diff: Difference between average projection and 2012 actual statistic
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position

The second set of projections, league average and 2011 stats are pro-rated to 2012 PA to allow a direct comparison.  League average is not adjusted for DNYS so mentally account for that.

Swisher was able to get a few more hits to fall in this year than projected, mostly doubles and that helped him outhit his average projection slightly.  He was worth 3-4 runs more than projected.  His versatility on defense was also important to the Yankees as he was asked to play 1B frequently with Mark Teixeira out and did it well (around +5 in 259 innings).

Unfortunately, Swisher’s postseasons for the Yankees have not been nearly as productive as his regular seasons.  I don’t know if it means he doesn’t handle pressure well or if he’s more susceptible to the better pitching he sees in the postseason or if it’s just a sample size issue.  But I know I hated watching it and I am certain it is the reason Swisher won’t be a Yankee in 2013.  The Yankees have made him a qualifying offer so that they can get a draft pick if he signs elsewhere, so there’s a minuscule chance he’ll be back next year.  But the only way that comes to pass is if he can’t get a contract for more than one year at a higher rate than the qualifying offer ($13.3M) and I just don’t see that happening.

Regardless, it’s been mostly great to have Swisher on the Yankees and I wish him well wherever he goes.

Since we’re fully in offseason mode and no one seems to care about 2012 anymore I’m not sure If I’ll do individual reviews for the pitching staff.  I may just do a post on the starters and a post on the relievers and then a team wrap up.