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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Thursday, October 25, 2012

2012 In Review - Derek Jeter

So far most of these have been a bit more sour than I expected.  And now I have to write about a player I hate?

I’ll admit it.  After watching Derek Jeter hit .259/.332/.338 in 900+ PA with a ground ball percentage of roughly 99.99999% from May 3, 2010 through June 13, 2011 I thought he was done.  He finished 2011 by hitting .331/.384/.447 after returning from the DL on July 3 which made me think he may have more left in the tank than I expected,  but I figured that it was also at least partially a fluke of BABIP (.390) and he would still probably not hit much better than .285/.350/.400 or so.  CAIRO projected him worse than that, as did just about every other projection.

Projection PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP avg obp slg wOBA BR BR/650 BRAR
cairo 581 519 82 149 22 1 8 56 16 5 46 83 14 6 .286 .347 .384 .325 67 75 25
davenport 560 510 72 147 27 2 9 54 14 4 46 73 13 4 .288 .354 .402 .336 69 80 25
marcel 577 518 79 147 23 2 9 54 16 5 47 83 13 5 .284 .347 .388 .327 68 76 25
oliver 635 574 73 162 25 3 8 60 14 5 49 85 17 5 .282 .342 .378 .321 71 73 24
pecota 694 632 82 180 28 3 9 66 18 6 56 106 16 6 .285 .351 .382 .328 81 76 30
zips 598 542 78 145 22 4 7 58 14 5 46 84 13 6 .268 .331 .362 .310 63 68 19
average 607 543 86 156 25 3 8 58 15 5 48 85 14 5 .286 .346 .386 .325 71 76 26
Projection PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP avg obp slg wOBA BR BR/650 BRAR
cairo 740 662 104 190 28 2 11 72 20 6 58 105 18 7 .286 .345 .384 .325 86 75 31
davenport 740 674 95 194 36 3 12 71 19 5 61 96 17 5 .288 .352 .402 .336 92 80 32
marcel 740 664 101 189 29 3 12 69 21 6 60 106 17 6 .284 .345 .388 .327 87 76 32
oliver 740 669 85 189 29 3 9 70 16 6 57 99 20 6 .282 .340 .378 .321 83 73 28
pecota 740 674 87 192 30 3 10 70 19 6 60 113 17 6 .285 .349 .382 .328 86 76 32
zips 740 671 97 179 27 5 9 72 17 6 57 104 16 7 .268 .329 .362 .310 77 68 23
average 740 662 104 190 30 3 10 71 19 6 59 104 17 6 .286 .344 .388 .325 86 76 32
2012 740 683 99 216 32 0 15 99 9 4 45 90 24 5 .316 .359 .429 .348 95 84 41
diff -5 26 2 -3 5 28 -10 -2 -14 -14 7 -1 .030 .015 .041 .022
2012 League Avg 740 665 87 170 33 3 21 83 13 4 59 143 15 6 .255 .320 .411 .311 86 75
2011 740 666 102 197 29 5 7 74 20 7 56 99 12 7 .297 .353 .388 .330 88 77 33

diff: Difference between average projection and 2012 actual statistic
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position

The second set of projections, league average and 2011 stats are pro-rated to 2012 PA to allow a direct comparison.  League average is not adjusted for DNYS so mentally account for that.

Jeter had more hits for a player aged 38 or older than any other player in history save Paul Molitor in 1996.  He had 26 more singles than projected and even showed a bit more pop with five additional HRs.  He traded some walks for singles and lost some steals and hit into more double plays but was close to a win better than projected offensively overall.  Jeter’s offensive performance was one of the best things about the 2012 season.  Even a bone bruise that he played through for most of the last month of the season didn’t slow him down much as he hit .300/.364/.354 in September as the Yankees managed to hold off Baltimore to win the AL East. 

Unfortunately, Jeter’s season ended with a fractured ankle during Game 1 of the ALCS which was probably at least partly attributable to playing through the bone bruise.  Jeter was one of the few Yankee hitters to show up during the postseason (.333/.379/.444) and losing him was a pretty big blow to a team that ended up getting swept in the ALCS. 

As far as his glove, as regular readers have noticed I’ve pretty much stopped talking about defensive metrics.  Anyone who thinks Jeter is a good defensive shortstop at this point is probably deluding himself.  Is he historically awful?  I suppose it’s possible, but it doesn’t show up in the play by play numbers.  He just shows up as really bad, in the area of 15-18 runs below average.  It cuts into his value, but it doesn’t take it all away.

Although he’s expected to make a full recovery after having surgery on his ankle, you wonder how it may impact his already limited range and if it will give the Yankees the impetus to think about a position change.  I don’t think Jeter could handle 3B since his first step seems to be his biggest problem and that’s a killer at third.  They will probably keep him at short to begin 2013 but will keep a close eye on him.  I’d look for them to try and acquire a defensive specialist SS type for the roster as depth because Nun-E as the only other SS on the roster doesn’t strike me as smart planning.  I wonder what Ramiro Pena is doing these days?

--Posted at 8:06 am by SG / 30 Comments | - (0)



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