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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Tuesday, October 30, 2012

2012 In Review - Curtis Granderson

Coming off an MVP-caliber season in 2011, Curtis Granderson was expected to regress somewhat in 2012.  The regression was expected to come mainly in his power numbers, but it turned out that it came elsewhere.

Projection PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP avg obp slg wOBA BR BR/650 BRAR
cairo 644 560 103 147 24 7 32 86 16 6 73 142 7 6 .263 .353 .502 .366 97 98 45
davenport 607 532 86 139 29 8 31 83 18 6 68 131 7 7 .261 .354 .521 .374 96 103 37
marcel 598 522 93 132 22 7 28 80 18 6 63 131 7 6 .253 .338 .483 .351 85 92 37
oliver 612 534 82 131 22 8 25 79 15 5 65 135 6 5 .245 .330 .457 .339 81 86 32
pecota 724 642 95 167 29 11 30 102 21 6 75 159 8 7 .261 .347 .481 .357 105 94 47
zips 628 547 104 140 22 8 31 92 16 7 71 143 7 6 .256 .347 .495 .361 92 95 42
average 635 553 102 145 25 8 30 87 17 6 69 140 7 6 .263 .349 .492 .358 95 97 43
Projection PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP avg obp slg wOBA BR BR/650 BRAR
cairo 684 595 110 156 26 8 34 92 17 6 77 151 8 6 .263 .351 .502 .366 103 98 48
davenport 684 599 97 157 33 9 35 94 20 7 77 148 8 8 .261 .353 .521 .374 108 103 42
marcel 684 597 106 151 25 8 32 92 21 7 72 150 8 7 .253 .336 .483 .351 97 92 42
oliver 684 597 92 146 25 9 28 88 17 6 73 151 7 6 .245 .328 .457 .339 91 86 36
pecota 684 606 90 158 27 10 28 96 20 6 71 150 8 7 .261 .345 .481 .357 99 94 44
zips 684 596 113 152 24 9 34 100 17 8 77 156 8 7 .256 .346 .495 .361 100 95 45
average 684 595 110 156 27 9 32 94 19 6 74 151 8 7 .263 .347 .497 .362 102 97 47
2012 684 596 102 138 18 4 43 102 10 3 75 195 5 5 .232 .319 .492 .345 95 90 40
diff -8 -18 -9 -5 11 8 -9 -3 1 44 -3 -2 -.031 -.029 -.006 -.017
2012 League Avg 684 615 80 157 30 3 20 76 12 4 55 132 14 6 .255 .320 .411 .311 79 75
2011 684 577 135 151 26 10 41 118 25 10 84 167 12 12 .262 .362 .552 .386 114 108 59

diff: Difference between average projection and 2012 actual statistic
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position

The second set of projections, league average and 2011 stats are pro-rated to 2012 PA to allow a direct comparison.  League average is not adjusted for DNYS so mentally account for that.

Granderson’s average projection pegged him at around 30 HRs, 32 if given his actual 2012 PA, but he ended up hitting 43, even more than last season.  Unfortunately, he hit 9 fewer doubles, 5 fewer triples and 4 fewer singles which cost him about .031 in batting average.  While that is partially a function of the spike in his strikeout rate (he struck out 44 more times than he projected to given the same # of PA), he also had a career low BABIP of .260.  That was despite hitting more line drives (23.0% vs. 18.2%) and fewer fly balls(44.0% vs. 48.0%) than he hit in 2011 when he had a BABIP of .295.  Teams were shifting on Granderson quite a bit this year which surely plays into the discrepancy although I don’t know how much more they were shifting on him this year than last year.  His performance in 2012 was about 7 runs worse than his average projection and around 19 runs worse than his 2011.

Granderson was hitting .276/.394/.632 on May 1 and hit .224/.306/.468 afterwards.  That’s one great month and five bad months and it made his season feel worse than it probably was.

Of course, like most of the rest of the wretched hive of Yankees Granderson had a horrific postseason.  I thought he struck out 34 times in 33 AB but it was actually 16.  He hit .100/.182/.200 and went 0 for the ALCS.

Granderson had his second consecutive below average defensive season according to most of the metrics.  He was above average in 2009 (around +10) but was around -6 in 2009 and -15 in 2010.  Trends aren’t predictive in baseball, but defense does decline as a player gets older and at this point he’s probably better suited to a corner.

My guess is that Granderson played his way out of the Yankees long-term plans with his performance from May 2 through the postseason.  They picked up his option because he’s almost surely worth a one year, $13M deal.  However, they may see what he could fetch in a trade although I’m not sure how much value he has given that he’s probably going to project as around a 3.0 WAR CF which is probably worth $15-18M and is only signed for one year.  The low average and the fact that 26 of his 43 homers came at DNYS may cause teams to be wary about him, although he hit 30 of his 65 homers on the road in 2011 and 2010.

Granderson’s 2012 performance is probably my biggest disappointment in the non-injury, non-Nova division.  He didn’t have a bad season in terms of overall value, but he didn’t have the season I hoped for and obviously his postseason speaks for itself.  I was looking forward to watching him play in pinstripes for another four or five years but now while I’d be perfectly happy watching him as a Yankee in 2013 I’m more interested in seeing if he can fetch more than I think he can in a trade.

That’s a bummer.

--Posted at 8:14 am by SG / 17 Comments | - (0)



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