The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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Yankees.com: Yankees Stink
(4 Comments - 8/21/2014 2:12:12 am)

Astros (53-73) @ Yankees (63-60), Wednesday, August 20, 2014, 7:05pm
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Whatever
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Whatever
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Astros (52-73) @ Yankees (63-59), Tuesday, August 19, 2014,  7:05pm
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North Jersey: Out on Castillo
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Newsday: Ambidextrous Pitcher Pat Venditte Hoping for His Call to the Majors
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NY Times: Thanks to Pitchers, Yankees Finish Trip on an Upbeat Note
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Yankees.com: If At First You Don’t Succeed in Losing, Try, Try Again
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Yankees (62-59) @ Rays (61-62), Sunday, 17 August 2014, 1:40pm
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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Friday, October 26, 2012

2012 In Review - Alex Rodriguez

As the Yankees went down in flames in the ALCS, the story was Alex Rodriguez.  Even though there was plenty of blame to go around to just about everyone in the lineup, it found its way to him like it usually does.

Rodriguez had far and away the worst full year of his career whether you measure it by accrued value or on a rate basis.  Here is how he performed compared to his projections this season.

Projection PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP avg obp slg wOBA BR BR/650 BRAR
cairo 459 398 65 109 21 1 19 78 6 2 53 82 10 5 .273 .364 .474 .365 67 95 30
davenport 476 418 62 113 22 1 21 72 5 3 55 86 10 4 .270 .361 .478 .367 69 95 29
marcel 474 412 63 110 21 1 20 78 7 2 51 86 10 5 .267 .350 .468 .355 67 92 29
oliver 523 457 66 121 23 1 22 73 5 2 56 91 12 5 .265 .348 .464 .353 72 90 30
pecota 572 499 80 137 24 1 30 84 9 2 67 112 12 6 .275 .368 .507 .379 90 102 44
zips 466 405 61 107 20 1 21 81 7 2 51 89 11 5 .264 .350 .474 .357 66 93 29
average 495 429 70 117 22 1 22 78 6 2 55 91 11 5 .273 .359 .481 .362 73 96 33
Projection PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP avg obp slg wOBA BR BR/650 BRAR
cairo 529 458 75 125 24 1 22 90 7 2 61 95 12 6 .273 .363 .474 .365 77 95 35
davenport 529 465 69 126 24 1 23 80 6 3 61 96 11 4 .270 .361 .478 .367 77 95 32
marcel 529 460 70 123 23 1 22 87 8 2 57 96 11 6 .267 .350 .468 .355 75 92 32
oliver 529 462 67 122 23 1 22 74 5 2 57 92 12 5 .265 .348 .464 .353 73 90 31
pecota 529 461 74 127 22 1 28 78 8 2 62 104 11 6 .275 .368 .507 .379 83 102 41
zips 529 460 69 121 23 1 24 92 8 2 58 101 12 6 .264 .350 .474 .357 75 93 33
average 529 458 75 125 23 1 24 83 7 2 59 97 12 5 .273 .359 .483 .364 78 96 35
2012 529 463 74 126 17 1 18 57 13 1 51 116 13 10 .272 .353 .430 .346 71 87 28
diff -1 1 -6 0 -6 -26 6 -1 -8 19 1 5 -.001 -.005 -.053 -.019
2012 League Avg 529 476 62 122 23 2 15 59 9 3 42 102 11 4 .255 .320 .411 .311 61 75
2011 529 461 83 127 26 0 20 77 5 1 58 99 16 6 .276 .362 .461 .360 75 92 32

diff: Difference between average projection and 2012 actual statistic
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position

The second set of projections, league average and 2011 stats are pro-rated to 2012 PA to allow a direct comparison.  League average is not adjusted for DNYS so mentally account for that.

When you pro-rate his projections to his actual 2012 PA you can see a big dropoff in his power.  He hit 12 fewer extra-base hits, trading them for 13 singles.  He also lost some walks and ended up being about 7 runs worse than projected on a rate basis.  The one thing that should be noted is his average projection was for 495 PA this year so he actually managed to get 34 more PA than expected.  He just stunk in them.  If not for his broken hand he may have ended up with another 100 PA.

It got even worse in the postseason as hit .120/.185/.120 in 27 PA.  According to RE24 he was the biggest detriment to the Yankees in the postseason. He was also pinch-hit for in a meaningful situation for the first time ever in the ALDS and then got benched for the bulk of the ALCS.  Brian Cashman explained it as being due to Rodriguez’s splits vs. RHP, particularly his 0 for 18 with 12 K in the postseason at one point.  While that’s a small sample size, it was bad enough that I didn’t have a huge problem with him being held out of the lineup vs. RHP.  Whether it’s a long-term issue that limits his utility going forward is something we just don’t know now, and probably won’t know for a while.  My guess is that with some adjustments it won’t be as much of an issue.

I admit I still had a smidgen of hope we’d see a MVP-candidate type of season out of Rodriguez this year but I now see no way that will ever happen again.  He’s still an asset, even if he’s hugely overpaid.  Because of that, I’m guessing he’ll be the starting 3B in 2013.  It’s hard to envision a scenario where the Yankees can trade Rodriguez and save money while adding enough value that it makes them better.  So let’s hope he can make whatever tweaks he has to make that benching him in the postseason is not an option next year.

--Posted at 9:31 am by SG / 32 Comments | - (0)



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