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Friday, October 26, 2012

2012 In Review - Alex Rodriguez

As the Yankees went down in flames in the ALCS, the story was Alex Rodriguez.  Even though there was plenty of blame to go around to just about everyone in the lineup, it found its way to him like it usually does.

Rodriguez had far and away the worst full year of his career whether you measure it by accrued value or on a rate basis.  Here is how he performed compared to his projections this season.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
cairo	459	398	65	109	21	1	19	78	6	2	53	82	10	5	.273	.364	.474	.365	67	95	30
davenport	476	418	62	113	22	1	21	72	5	3	55	86	10	4	.270	.361	.478	.367	69	95	29
marcel	474	412	63	110	21	1	20	78	7	2	51	86	10	5	.267	.350	.468	.355	67	92	29
oliver	523	457	66	121	23	1	22	73	5	2	56	91	12	5	.265	.348	.464	.353	72	90	30
pecota	572	499	80	137	24	1	30	84	9	2	67	112	12	6	.275	.368	.507	.379	90	102	44
zips	466	405	61	107	20	1	21	81	7	2	51	89	11	5	.264	.350	.474	.357	66	93	29
average	495	429	70	117	22	1	22	78	6	2	55	91	11	5	.273	.359	.481	.362	73	96	33
Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
cairo	529	458	75	125	24	1	22	90	7	2	61	95	12	6	.273	.363	.474	.365	77	95	35
davenport	529	465	69	126	24	1	23	80	6	3	61	96	11	4	.270	.361	.478	.367	77	95	32
marcel	529	460	70	123	23	1	22	87	8	2	57	96	11	6	.267	.350	.468	.355	75	92	32
oliver	529	462	67	122	23	1	22	74	5	2	57	92	12	5	.265	.348	.464	.353	73	90	31
pecota	529	461	74	127	22	1	28	78	8	2	62	104	11	6	.275	.368	.507	.379	83	102	41
zips	529	460	69	121	23	1	24	92	8	2	58	101	12	6	.264	.350	.474	.357	75	93	33
average	529	458	75	125	23	1	24	83	7	2	59	97	12	5	.273	.359	.483	.364	78	96	35
2012	529	463	74	126	17	1	18	57	13	1	51	116	13	10	.272	.353	.430	.346	71	87	28
diff			-1	1	-6	0	-6	-26	6	-1	-8	19	1	5	-.001	-.005	-.053	-.019
2012 League Avg	529	476	62	122	23	2	15	59	9	3	42	102	11	4	.255	.320	.411	.311	61	75
2011	529	461	83	127	26	0	20	77	5	1	58	99	16	6	.276	.362	.461	.360	75	92	32

diff: Difference between average projection and 2012 actual statistic
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position

The second set of projections, league average and 2011 stats are pro-rated to 2012 PA to allow a direct comparison.  League average is not adjusted for DNYS so mentally account for that.

When you pro-rate his projections to his actual 2012 PA you can see a big dropoff in his power.  He hit 12 fewer extra-base hits, trading them for 13 singles.  He also lost some walks and ended up being about 7 runs worse than projected on a rate basis.  The one thing that should be noted is his average projection was for 495 PA this year so he actually managed to get 34 more PA than expected.  He just stunk in them.  If not for his broken hand he may have ended up with another 100 PA.

It got even worse in the postseason as hit .120/.185/.120 in 27 PA.  According to RE24 he was the biggest detriment to the Yankees in the postseason. He was also pinch-hit for in a meaningful situation for the first time ever in the ALDS and then got benched for the bulk of the ALCS.  Brian Cashman explained it as being due to Rodriguez’s splits vs. RHP, particularly his 0 for 18 with 12 K in the postseason at one point.  While that’s a small sample size, it was bad enough that I didn’t have a huge problem with him being held out of the lineup vs. RHP.  Whether it’s a long-term issue that limits his utility going forward is something we just don’t know now, and probably won’t know for a while.  My guess is that with some adjustments it won’t be as much of an issue.

I admit I still had a smidgen of hope we’d see a MVP-candidate type of season out of Rodriguez this year but I now see no way that will ever happen again.  He’s still an asset, even if he’s hugely overpaid.  Because of that, I’m guessing he’ll be the starting 3B in 2013.  It’s hard to envision a scenario where the Yankees can trade Rodriguez and save money while adding enough value that it makes them better.  So let’s hope he can make whatever tweaks he has to make that benching him in the postseason is not an option next year.