Tuesday, November 23, 2010
2011 Yankee Pitcher CAIRO Projections v0.1
It took a little longer to get these done than I had hoped, but now we’ve got the first set of Yankee pitcher projections to go with the hitter projections.
| Last, First | Tm | Age | Role | IP | H | HR | BB | K | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| Sabathia, C.C. | NYA | 31 | SP | 219 | 200 | 20 | 60 | 176 | 3.73 | 3.39 | 3.68 | 48 | 4.8 |
| Hughes, Philip | NYA | 25 | SP | 172 | 162 | 21 | 58 | 147 | 4.29 | 4.11 | 4.17 | 29 | 2.9 |
| Pettitte, Andy | NYA | 39 | SP | 163 | 167 | 16 | 51 | 119 | 4.43 | 4.03 | 4.07 | 24 | 2.4 |
| Rivera, Mariano | NYA | 42 | RP | 68 | 50 | 5 | 14 | 62 | 2.83 | 2.60 | 2.99 | 19 | 1.9 |
| Burnett, A.J. | NYA | 34 | SP | 187 | 191 | 23 | 74 | 156 | 5.14 | 4.77 | 4.50 | 17 | 1.7 |
| Chamberlain, Joba | NYA | 26 | RP | 106 | 102 | 11 | 40 | 100 | 4.68 | 4.27 | 3.94 | 9 | 0.9 |
| Robertson, David | NYA | 26 | RP | 67 | 64 | 6 | 30 | 71 | 4.17 | 3.91 | 3.68 | 9 | 0.9 |
| Warren, Adam | NYA | 24 | SP | 85 | 89 | 11 | 30 | 61 | 4.98 | 4.61 | 4.56 | 7 | 0.7 |
| Aceves, Alfredo | NYA | 29 | RP | 49 | 43 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 4.09 | 3.77 | 4.11 | 6 | 0.6 |
| Pope, Ryan | NYA | 25 | SP | 116 | 127 | 17 | 41 | 82 | 5.41 | 5.02 | 4.83 | 5 | 0.5 |
| Banuelos, Manny | NYA | 20 | SP | 61 | 65 | 8 | 24 | 44 | 5.31 | 4.92 | 4.77 | 4 | 0.4 |
| Stoneburner, Graham | NYA | 24 | SP | 58 | 62 | 8 | 22 | 41 | 5.26 | 4.87 | 4.83 | 4 | 0.4 |
| Logan, Boone | NYA | 27 | RP | 48 | 50 | 5 | 18 | 39 | 4.64 | 4.30 | 4.24 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Noesi, Hector | NYA | 24 | SP | 80 | 88 | 12 | 27 | 57 | 5.50 | 5.09 | 4.91 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Phelps, David | NYA | 25 | SP | 94 | 106 | 14 | 34 | 63 | 5.61 | 5.19 | 5.05 | 2 | 0.2 |
| Nova, Ivan | NYA | 24 | SP | 83 | 94 | 11 | 35 | 51 | 5.65 | 5.26 | 5.03 | 2 | 0.2 |
| Mitchell, D.J. | NYA | 24 | SP | 73 | 81 | 10 | 33 | 48 | 5.62 | 5.20 | 5.08 | 2 | 0.2 |
| Betances, Dellin | NYA | 23 | SP | 52 | 56 | 8 | 24 | 39 | 5.68 | 5.26 | 5.16 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Mitre, Sergio | NYA | 30 | RP | 72 | 77 | 9 | 21 | 43 | 5.24 | 4.66 | 4.69 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Brackman, Andrew | NYA | 26 | SP | 63 | 71 | 10 | 28 | 43 | 5.92 | 5.48 | 5.26 | 0 | 0.0 |
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher (using RA)
WAR: Wins above a replacement level pitcher (RSAR divided by 10)
I haven’t adjusted these for defense, although it’s not likely that’ll change much since the Yankees are effectively bringing back the same team next year. Chamberlain’s projection still includes his time as a starter, if he’s a pure reliever he should project about a half run better across the board (RA, ERA, FIP) and his inning total should be closer to what it was in 2010. Other than that I’d just say that projecting pitching is a crapshoot, so don’t take any of these projections as gospel.
It’s probably safe to say this team could use Cliff Lee and Andy Pettitte, huh?
I do have most of the minor leaguers projected already but didn’t want to include them all yet, so I just kept the ones that are most likely to be asked about. I will probably release the full CAIRO projections soon, which will have just about anyone who played above rookie ball in 2010.
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