The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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Yankees (76-71) @ Orioles (88-60), Sunday, September 14, 2014, 8:00pm
(55 Comments - 9/15/2014 2:55:10 am)

NJ.com: Yankees’ Derek Jeter has bad stats, good at-bats, Joe Girardi says
(9 Comments - 9/14/2014 4:08:46 pm)

Yankees (75-71) @ Orioles (88-59), Saturday, September 13, 2014, 1:05pm
(16 Comments - 9/13/2014 7:43:16 pm)

Yankees (75-69) @ Orioles (86-59), Friday, September 12, 2014, Doubleheader
(79 Comments - 9/13/2014 11:34:03 am)

NY Post: Yankees’ VP of baseball operations Mark Newman retiring: sources
(3 Comments - 9/12/2014 1:41:00 pm)

Yankees.com: Young’s late heroics rescue Yankees
(23 Comments - 9/12/2014 12:05:43 pm)

Rays (70-76) @ Yankees (74-69), Thursday, September 11, 2014, 7:05pm
(47 Comments - 9/11/2014 11:10:03 pm)

Yankees.com: Yanks erase four-run deficit in comeback win
(4 Comments - 9/11/2014 8:49:02 pm)

NJ.com: Yankees’ Carlos Beltran: Elbow surgery decision could happen soon
(12 Comments - 9/11/2014 4:01:21 pm)

WSJ: Yankees Want Tanaka Back Soon, but Not to Save the Season
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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Tuesday, November 23, 2010

2011 Yankee Pitcher CAIRO Projections v0.1

It took a little longer to get these done than I had hoped, but now we’ve got the first set of Yankee pitcher projections to go with the hitter projections.

Last, First Tm Age Role IP H HR BB K RA ERA FIP RSAR WAR
Sabathia, C.C. NYA 31 SP 219 200 20 60 176 3.73 3.39 3.68 48 4.8
Hughes, Philip NYA 25 SP 172 162 21 58 147 4.29 4.11 4.17 29 2.9
Pettitte, Andy NYA 39 SP 163 167 16 51 119 4.43 4.03 4.07 24 2.4
Rivera, Mariano NYA 42 RP 68 50 5 14 62 2.83 2.60 2.99 19 1.9
Burnett, A.J. NYA 34 SP 187 191 23 74 156 5.14 4.77 4.50 17 1.7
Chamberlain, Joba NYA 26 RP 106 102 11 40 100 4.68 4.27 3.94 9 0.9
Robertson, David NYA 26 RP 67 64 6 30 71 4.17 3.91 3.68 9 0.9
Warren, Adam NYA 24 SP 85 89 11 30 61 4.98 4.61 4.56 7 0.7
Aceves, Alfredo NYA 29 RP 49 43 5 13 34 4.09 3.77 4.11 6 0.6
Pope, Ryan NYA 25 SP 116 127 17 41 82 5.41 5.02 4.83 5 0.5
Banuelos, Manny NYA 20 SP 61 65 8 24 44 5.31 4.92 4.77 4 0.4
Stoneburner, Graham NYA 24 SP 58 62 8 22 41 5.26 4.87 4.83 4 0.4
Logan, Boone NYA 27 RP 48 50 5 18 39 4.64 4.30 4.24 3 0.3
Noesi, Hector NYA 24 SP 80 88 12 27 57 5.50 5.09 4.91 3 0.3
Phelps, David NYA 25 SP 94 106 14 34 63 5.61 5.19 5.05 2 0.2
Nova, Ivan NYA 24 SP 83 94 11 35 51 5.65 5.26 5.03 2 0.2
Mitchell, D.J. NYA 24 SP 73 81 10 33 48 5.62 5.20 5.08 2 0.2
Betances, Dellin NYA 23 SP 52 56 8 24 39 5.68 5.26 5.16 1 0.1
Mitre, Sergio NYA 30 RP 72 77 9 21 43 5.24 4.66 4.69 1 0.1
Brackman, Andrew NYA 26 SP 63 71 10 28 43 5.92 5.48 5.26 0 0.0

RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher (using RA)
WAR: Wins above a replacement level pitcher (RSAR divided by 10)

I haven’t adjusted these for defense, although it’s not likely that’ll change much since the Yankees are effectively bringing back the same team next year.  Chamberlain’s projection still includes his time as a starter, if he’s a pure reliever he should project about a half run better across the board (RA, ERA, FIP) and his inning total should be closer to what it was in 2010.  Other than that I’d just say that projecting pitching is a crapshoot, so don’t take any of these projections as gospel. 

It’s probably safe to say this team could use Cliff Lee and Andy Pettitte, huh?

I do have most of the minor leaguers projected already but didn’t want to include them all yet, so I just kept the ones that are most likely to be asked about.  I will probably release the full CAIRO projections soon, which will have just about anyone who played above rookie ball in 2010.

--Posted at 7:03 am by SG / 94 Comments | - (0)



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