The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 



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Yankees.com: Cano’s two homers help Yanks take care of Jays
(37 Comments - 5/19/2013 7:53:09 am)

Blue Jays (17-25) @ Yankees (26-16), Saturday, May 18, 2013, 1:05pm
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Mariners (19-21) @ Yankees (25-15), Thursday, May 16, 2013, 7:05pm
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Baseball Reference: From 1916 to 2013, as Starter, (requiring IPouts≤2 and R≥7)
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Player

 Current Projected
Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King


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Tuesday, March 30, 2010

2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CAIRO Edition

CAIRO is my own in-house projection system, which is based on Marcel with the following changes.

1) I use the prior four years of data, whereas Marcel uses only the prior three years.
2) I make adjustments for park, which Marcel does not do.
3) I use major league equivalencies for players who've played in the minors, which Marcel does not do.
4) I account for the defense behind a pitcher in their prior seasons as well as in projecting them for the next season, which Marcel does not do.
5) Marcel regresses everyone towards league average, I also regress towards different additional means based on player age and primary position.
6) My projected playing time is based on a weighted average of the previous four years, although I am more conservative when assigning playing time in these simulations.

Projection cairo
Date 3/30/10
Iterations 100,000
American League
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Yankees 97.7 64.3 87 - 107 881 708 41.1% 24.1% -5.3 -34 -45
Rays 94.2 67.8 83 - 104 783 655 29.5% 24.4% 10.2 -20 -99
Red Sox 93.9 68.1 83 - 103 824 685 27.6% 24.6% -1.1 -48 -51
Orioles 71.4 90.6 60 - 81 749 828 1.6% 2.7% 7.4 8 -48
Blue Jays 63.6 98.4 53 - 74 662 798 0.3% 0.7% -11.4 -136 27
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
White Sox 82.5 79.5 72 - 93 744 743 28.5% 3.0% 3.5 20 11
Twins 82.1 79.9 71 - 92 796 797 27.0% 3.2% -4.9 -21 32
Tigers 80.0 82.0 69 - 90 726 749 21.9% 2.6% -6.0 -17 4
Indians 78.0 84.0 67 - 88 793 831 17.9% 2.3% 13.0 20 -34
Royals 67.9 94.1 57 - 78 714 844 4.8% 0.6% 2.9 28 2
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Angels 82.3 79.7 71 - 92 747 728 28.4% 3.3% -2.7 -136 -33
Mariners 81.7 80.3 71 - 92 700 685 26.8% 3.1% -15.3 60 -7
Rangers 80.5 81.5 69 - 91 761 771 23.7% 2.5% -6.5 -23 31
Athletics 79.4 82.6 68 - 89 681 688 21.1% 2.7% 4.4 -78 -73
National League
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 91.7 70.3 81 - 102 812 711 46.3% 8.9% -1.3 -8 2
Braves 86.2 75.8 75 - 96 738 694 26.4% 9.6% -0.8 3 53
Marlins 79.6 82.4 69 - 90 762 774 13.5% 5.8% -6.4 -10 8
Mets 77.0 85.0 66 - 87 755 791 9.5% 4.4% 7.0 84 34
Nationals 71.4 90.6 60 - 81 687 780 4.2% 2.2% 12.4 -23 -94
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Cardinals 91.4 70.6 80 - 101 727 645 40.3% 10.8% 0.4 -3 5
Reds 84.5 77.5 73 - 94 742 719 19.3% 9.5% 4.5 69 -4
Cubs 83.9 78.1 73 - 94 733 716 18.3% 9.2% 0.9 26 44
Brewers 83.0 79.0 72 - 93 730 718 16.6% 8.8% 5.0 -55 -100
Pirates 73.0 89.0 62 - 83 672 749 4.5% 2.9% -1.0 36 -19
Astros 64.6 97.4 54 - 75 653 809 1.1% 0.8% 2.6 10 39
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Dodgers 85.5 76.5 74 - 96 725 679 28.7% 6.8% -9.5 -55 68
Rockies 85.0 77.0 85 - 95 800 763 26.7% 6.7% -7.0 -4 48
Diamondbacks 81.6 80.4 81 - 92 736 726 19.6% 5.5% -6.4 16 -56
Giants 78.6 83.4 78 - 89 677 699 13.1% 4.3% 3.6 20 88
Padres 77.9 84.1 77 - 88 631 658 11.9% 3.8% 7.9 -7 -111
W: Projected 2010 wins
L: Projected 2010 losses
RS: Projected 2010 runs scored
RA: Projected 2010 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
W+/-: 2010 projected wins minus 2009 actual wins
RS+/-: 2010 projected runs scored minus 2009 actual runs scored
(positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2010 projected runs allowed minus 2009 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)
StD W: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 12:08 pm by SG / 7 Comments | - (0)


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