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Thursday, October 14, 2010

2010 ALCS Preview: Rangers vs. Yankees

Rangers in 3 or 4?

Well, we’re down to two teams in the quest for who gets to lose to the Phillies in the World Series. 

The Rangers have returned to the postseason for the first time since 1999 and have won a postseason series for the first time in their history, beating the AL East champion Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS.

The Yankees weren’t even good enough to beat out the Rays for the AL East and instead had to back into the playoffs as the wild card. To put this simply:

A) The Rays are better than the Yankees as evidenced by winning the AL East
B) The Rangers are better than the Rays as evidenced by winning their playoff series against them

Despite this, they are actually going to play the games, so maybe the unexpected will happen.

Here’s how the Rangers’ position player project.

Lineup	Pos	2010 OBP	2010 wOBA	Proj OBP	Proj wOBA	PA	Outs	BR	Def
Elvis Andrus	SS	.335	.296	.310	.309	35	24	3.52	0.2
Michael Young	3B	.331	.336	.340	.341	35	23	4.51	-0.6
Josh Hamilton	CF	.411	.444	.366	.392	35	22	6.06	0.0
Vladimir Guerrero	DH	.346	.361	.355	.374	35	23	5.5	0.0
Nelson Cruz	RF	.372	.405	.343	.374	35	23	5.49	0.5
Ian Kinsler	2B	.380	.357	.352	.357	32	21	4.59	0.2
Mitch Moreland	1B	.360	.362	.319	.316	21	14	2.25	0.1
Bengie Molina	C	.292	.275	.286	.302	20	14	1.85	0.0
Julio Borbon	LF	.304	.287	.314	.297	1	1	0.09	0.0
Andres Blanco	2B	.326	.298	.311	.297	1	1	0.09	0.0
David Murphy	LF	.355	.356	.334	.340	1	1	0.13	0.0
Cristian Guzman	SS	.308	.289	.305	.302	1	1	0.09	0.0
Chris Davis	1B	.279	.267	.286	.319	0	0	0	0.0
Matt Treanor	C	.285	.266	.289	.277	6	4	0.44	0.0
Jorge Cantu	1B	.301	.302	.317	.330	5	3	0.6	0.0

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
PA: Plate appearances
Outs: calculated as (1- Proj OBP) times PA
BR: Linear weights batting runs over series estimate of playing time
Def: Projected defense over series estimate of playing time using an average of DRS, TZ, UZR and ZR

The Rangers offense isn’t great, but they’ve got some pretty good hitters and and a strong defensive team.  One thing that they may benefit them is that they project slightly better against LHP.

Vs. L		PA	wOBA	BR	Outs
Elvis Andrus		5.0	.296	0.4	3.4
Michael Young		4.7	.356	0.7	3.0
Josh Hamilton		4.0	.365	0.6	2.6
Vladimir Guerrero		4.0	.391	0.7	2.5
Nelson Cruz		4.0	.387	0.7	2.6
Ian Kinsler		4.0	.378	0.6	2.5
Jorge Cantu		4.0	.340	0.5	2.7
Bengie Molina		4.0	.323	0.5	2.8
Jeff Francoeur		4.0	.331	0.5	2.9
Total		37.7	.350	5.2	25.0
Vs. R		PA	wOBA	BR	Outs
Elvis Andrus		5.0	.278	0.4	3.5
Michael Young		4.5	.335	0.6	3.0
Josh Hamilton		4.0	.413	0.8	2.5
Vladimir Guerrero		4.0	.367	0.6	2.6
Nelson Cruz		4.0	.371	0.6	2.6
Ian Kinsler		4.0	.350	0.5	2.6
Mitch Moreland		4.0	.357	0.6	2.6
Bengie Molina		4.0	.292	0.3	2.9
Julio Borbon		4.0	.301	0.4	2.7
Total		37.5	.339	4.8	25.0

I’m assuming they would play Jeff Francoeur and Jorge Cantu against lefties since they project better than Julio Borbon and Mitch Moreland, but the Rangers may have reasons for not doing that.  Even if they don’t, they still project better versus lefties, which is good for them since the Yankees would be starting lefties in four of the potential seven games.

Truth be told, the pitching staff is where the Rangers really shined in 2010.  Here’s how they project.

Pitcher	Role	2010 RA	2010 FIP	Proj RA	Proj FIP	IP	R
C.J. Wilson	SP1	3.66	3.59	3.93	3.68	13	5.7
Colby Lewis	SP2	4.04	3.51	4.70	4.03	13	6.8
Cliff Lee	SP3	3.56	2.59	3.75	3.40	15	6.2
Tommy Hunter	SP4	3.87	4.99	5.19	4.98	5	2.9
Neftali Feliz	CL	2.73	2.97	3.51	3.06	4	1.6
Darren O’Day	SU	2.18	3.58	3.26	3.61	4	1.4
Darren Oliver	MR	2.97	2.64	3.41	3.43	4	1.5
Derek Holland	MR	4.71	4.04	5.94	4.63	2	1.3
Alexi Ogando	MR	1.33	3.16	3.75	3.77	2	0.8
Dustin Nippert	MR	4.37	4.95	5.47	4.97	1	0.6

2010/Proj RA: 2010/projected run allowed per nine innings
2010/Proj FIP:  2010/projected Fielding Independent Pitching
IP: Estimated innings pitched in this series
R: Estimated runs allowed in this series (Projected RA divided by nine times IP)

Obviously, we all know about Cliff Lee, the greatest postseason pitcher ever.  Lee’s not scheduled to start until Game 3 though, with C.J. Wilson getting the nod in the opener and Colby Lewis following up in Game 2.

Wilson’s a lefty who was primarily a reliever the last few years, but was moved into the rotation this year and did very well.  He may not be 3.35 ERA good, but he’s good.

Lewis was a pretty hot prospect a few years ago but put up a 6.71 ERA from 2002-2007 before winding up in Japan, where he pitched for the Hiroshima Carp in 2008 and 2009.  Lewis pitched very well there and then made a triumphant return to MLB and put up a very good year.  He doesn’t throw as hard as he did when he first came up, but he’s shown an improved slider and better command. His peripherals are in line with his performance too, so he looks like he’s a legitimately good pitcher now.

Cliff Lee has NEVER lost a postseason game.  EVER.  Think about how amazing that is.  No one has every faced Cliff Lee in a postseason game and beaten him.  In the entire history of baseball. 

Seriously, we know Lee’s good, and the Yankees are probably going to have to beat him at least once if they want a shot at advancing. 

I’m not sure if the Rangers will go with Tommy Hunter as their fourth starter, but it could be him or Matt Harrison I guess.  Whomever it is, he’ll be better than A.J. Burnett at least.

Here are the Yankees’s position player projections.  They’re the same as they were for the ALDS aside from adjusting the playing time to reflect a seven game series.

Lineup	Pos	2010 OBP	2010 wOBA	Proj OBP	Proj wOBA	PA	Outs	BR	Def
Derek Jeter	SS	.339	.322	.361	.346	30	19	3.99	-0.4
Nick Swisher	RF	.357	.370	.353	.359	30	19	4.34	0.1
Mark Teixeira	1B	.366	.369	.372	.388	30	19	5.09	0.2
Alex Rodriguez	3B	.341	.360	.369	.388	30	19	5.09	-0.1
Robinson Cano	2B	.382	.394	.356	.376	30	19	4.77	-0.1
Jorge Posada	C	.358	.358	.361	.367	26	17	3.93	-0.1
Curtis Granderson	CF	.323	.343	.334	.348	25	17	3.37	0.2
Lance Berkman	DH	.368	.350	.381	.384	20	12	3.32	0.0
Brett Gardner	LF	.379	.358	.356	.325	20	13	2.3	0.4
Francisco Cervelli	C	.350	.311	.314	.296	5	3	0.45	0.0
Marcus Thames	DH	.352	.364	.310	.340	16	11	2.05	0.0
Austin Kearns	RF	.351	.336	.335	.326	5	3	0.58	0.0
Ramiro Pena	SS	.256	.237	.296	.274	3	2	0.21	0.0
Greg Golson	RF	.261	.226	.265	.268	1	1	0.07	0.1

There’s really not much I can tell you here that you don’t already know.  Expect to see Thames against lefties and Berkman against righties at DH, and I have a hunch that Francisco Cervelli will get a start with Burnett since they had such good chemistry this year. 

And the pitching projections, again just adjusted for a seven game series.

Pitcher	Role	2010 RA	2010 FIP	Proj RA	Proj FIP	IP	R
CC Sabathia	SP1	3.48	3.55	3.48	3.39	14	5.4
Phil Hughes	SP2	4.24	4.29	4.56	4.12	12	6.1
Andy Pettitte	SP3	3.63	3.96	4.35	3.97	13	6.3
A.J. Burnett	SP4	5.69	4.81	5.11	4.68	5	2.8
Mariano Rivera	CL	2.10	2.85	2.43	2.77	4	1.1
David Robertson	SU	3.54	3.54	3.97	3.39	4	1.8
Kerry Wood	MR	3.33	4.09	3.99	3.95	4	1.8
Joba Chamberlain	MR	4.58	2.94	4.70	3.94	3	1.6
Boone Logan	MR	2.97	3.73	4.55	4.24	3	1.5
Sergio Mitre	MR	3.91	4.79	5.21	4.52	1	0.6
Dustin Moseley	MR	4.77	5.81	5.88	5.53	0	0.0
Total						63	28.9
						63

The Yankees will go with CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, Andy Pettitte and Burnett in the first four scheduled games, which sets up Sabathia, Hughes and Pettitte to pitch in Games 5-7 if necessary.  Expect to see most of the relief innings going to Mo, Kerry Wood, Dave Robertson and Boone Logan primarily, perhaps with some Joba Chamberlain mixed in.

On paper, the Yankees are probably the better team.  However, if we factor in the fact that the Rangers are better against LHP and the Yankees are worse against LHP, that narrows the gap some.  Since the Rangers did the honorable thing by winning their division, they get home field advantage in this series, which narrows the gap a hair more.

I received an email asking me about this article at Fangraphs by Dave Cameron saying that there was no difference in win probability between Cliff Lee starting Games 1 and 5 versus 3 and 7 and running some simulations to show that it’s false.  The only problem is, it’s not false.  A team’s probability of winning a series is the sum of their probabilities of winning each game, and the order doesn’t matter, assuming playing time is the same.  If you want to argue that starting Lee earlier means you have the potential to use him more later in the series, then I suppose that’s possible, but aside from that, it doesn’t matter which games he starts.

Team	Offense	Defense	Pitching	Pythagenpat	p162
Rangers	35.2	0.4	28.9	.603	98
		VS
Yankees	39.6	0.3	28.9	.647	105

Pythagenpat: Estimated win percentage based on projected offense/defense + pitching, adjusted for home field advantage
p162: Pythagenpat times 162 games (full season win equivalency)
Anyway, based on these depth charts and accounting for HFA, the Rangers look like around a 98 win team and the Yankees look like around a 105 win team. So what happens if they play the ALCS 10,000 times?

Rangers: 45.2%
Yankees: 54.8%

Which is all just a fancy way of saying Rangers in 3.