The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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NYDN: BIG FISH: Yankees score huge catch by acquiring Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton
(181 Comments - 12/11/2017 5:44:08 am)

MLB Trade Rumors: Yankees, Marlins In Advanced Talks On Giancarlo Stanton
(13 Comments - 12/9/2017 9:50:17 am)

NY Post: What Aaron Boone wants from his right-hand man
(140 Comments - 12/9/2017 9:42:08 am)

NYDN:  With manager and Otani situations resolved, Yankees free to move forward with offseason plans
(44 Comments - 12/7/2017 11:10:11 am)

NYDN: Yankees, Mets out of the running to land Shohei Otani
(113 Comments - 12/5/2017 11:25:20 am)

TGS: Kurkjian: ‘Boonie’ ready to do a great job for Yankees
(26 Comments - 12/4/2017 2:50:06 am)

Yankees.com: Sources: Yankees tab Boone as new manager
(60 Comments - 12/3/2017 3:33:04 pm)

NY Daily News: Why Yankees will likely name Hensley Meulens or Aaron Boone manager next week
(43 Comments - 12/2/2017 3:07:04 am)

Yahoo! Sports: Brown: Can Shohei Ohtani actually succeed as a two-way player?
(51 Comments - 12/1/2017 5:28:09 pm)

Yankees.com: Yankees’ manager search back in full swing
(70 Comments - 11/30/2017 9:26:40 am)



Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Saturday, December 9, 2017

NYDN: BIG FISH: Yankees score huge catch by acquiring Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton

It was too good to pass up.

The Yankees have taken advantage of a desperate Derek Jeter-led Marlins franchise, acquiring slugger Giancarlo Stanton.

The two teams have a deal in place, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports tweeted Saturday.

The deal bolsters an already formidable lineup, with Stanton set to join Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez in the heart of the Yankees’ batting order. The trio hit a combined 144 home runs in 2017.

It’s a serious coup for the Yankees, who reportedly weren’t that interested until Stanton used his no-trade clause to limit the Marlins’ trade options, effectively backing a cash-strapped ownership group into a proverbial corner.

We’ll have to see the particulars of who was traded and how the $$$ shake out but this is a F—-ing A trade.

--Posted at 8:42 am by SG / 181 Comments | - (0)



MLB Trade Rumors: Yankees, Marlins In Advanced Talks On Giancarlo Stanton

SATURDAY, 12:35am: “Serious” talks between the Yankees and Marlins have been underway for “at least a few days,” Heyman tweets. Indeed, the presence of a more desirable potential landing spot (from Stanton’s perspective) may even have dissuaded the slugger somewhat from accepting a move to the Giants or Cardinals, Heyman suggests.

FRIDAY, 11:41pm: A deal to send Stanton to New York is “close if not done,” a source tells Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter).

Let’s add even more fuel to this fire:

Source: Stanton from #Marlins to #Yankees is “virtually done.” Close to finish line. Hear #Marlins will get at least Starlin Castro plus good but not top prospects if completed. Again physical review can still be part of this so nothing final, but close.

@JoelSherman1: 12:39 AM - 9 Dec 2017

Uhm, yes please?

Obviously it depends on the terms, but how can you not like the idea of Stanton, Judge and TPBG™ in the same outfield.  It would be the most powerful outfield ever, no?

--Posted at 6:32 am by SG / 13 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, December 7, 2017

NY Post: What Aaron Boone wants from his right-hand man

“We already have Larry Rothschild so that is all kind of experience [43 years as a player, coach and manager],’’ Boone said. “Experience is certainly a factor and something that should be of value, but it’s not the end-all for me and not a prerequisite.

“I want smart sitting next to me. I want confidence sitting next to me. I want a guy who can walk out into that room and as I talk about relationships I expect to have with my players, I expect that even to be more so with my coaching staff. I want smart guys capable of connecting and impacting players. Whether that is guys with all kinds of experience or little experience, I am not concerned about that.’’

Rothschild, the Yankees’ pitching coach for the past seven years, is the only coach officially announced. It appears bullpen coach Mike Harkey will return. And Carlos Mendoza and Reggie Willits, minor league coordinators, are being considered for spots on Boone’s staff. The status of hitting coaches Alan Cockrell and Marcus Thames and first-base coach Tony Pena hasn’t been revealed.

I do think it would benefit Boone to have a bench coach with MLB managerial experience, although I suppose it’s true that Rothschild could fill that role.

--Posted at 10:33 am by SG / 140 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, December 5, 2017

NYDN:  With manager and Otani situations resolved, Yankees free to move forward with offseason plans

With Aaron Boone officially named on Monday as the new manager, confirming the Daily News report on Friday, and Shohei Otani no longer a consideration, the Yankees can move forward now in planning for next season, which mostly means looking at ways to add pitching.

On Monday Brian Cashman said he has talked to CC Sabathia’s agent about the possibility of the big lefthander returning next season, and that makes sense on a short-term contract.

But the GM also indicated the Yankees have the financial flexibility to venture more deeply into the free-agent market and still meet their objective of getting the payroll under the million luxury-tax threshold.

When I asked if that meant someone like Alex Cobb was a possibility, Cashman didn’t object, at least in a general sense.

“We’re open-minded on anything as long as it hits our pressure points,’’ was the way he put it. “We’re looking to do more. You can never have enough pitching.”

By “pressure points,” Cashman was again making it clear the Yankees won’t be swayed from getting under the $197 million luxury-tax threshold. But he acknowledged that with some $70 million coming off the payroll in expired contracts, the Yankees should have room to absorb significant salary.

And while there is no indication they’d be willing to pay at the top of this free-agent class for someone like Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish, there has been speculation in the industry that the Yanks have interest in Cobb, the 30-year old righthander who made an impressive comeback from Tommy John surgery last season with the Rays.

Whether they seriously pursue him could depend at least partly on the price if multiple teams bid on Cobb. He’s likely to get $16-17 million a year, but term would be more important to the Yankees, and it’s hard to see them going beyond four years in such a deal.

Chances are, in fact, Cashman would be relatively disciplined in any pursuit of a free agent, knowing he still has a strong rotation core in Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray, and Jordan Montgomery, and also has a lot of promising young pitching in the farm system.

I can’t see the Yankees going for more than a year or two for Cobb.  I’m not certain he’s appreciably better than CC Sabathia.  Maybe he is a better bet to stay healthy, but is that going to be worth the significant difference in financial commitment?

This offseason is shaping up to be rather dull now that the Shohei Ohtani pursuit has fizzled out and the drive to save Hal’s pocketbook has shifted into high gear.

Wake me up in March.

--Posted at 9:27 am by SG / 44 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, December 3, 2017

NYDN: Yankees, Mets out of the running to land Shohei Otani

STAMFORD, Conn.—The Babe Ruth of Japan is not coming to New York.

The Yankees already have been informed they will not even be among the teams invited to make an in-person pitch to free agent Shohei Otani, GM Brian Cashman revealed on Sunday following his annual rappelling down the side of a building as an elf during the city’s tree-lighting ceremony. The Mets also are out of the running for Otani, according to an industry source.

Well, that’s disappointing.  I assume this means a CC reunion and a possible look at DHs?

--Posted at 8:13 pm by SG / 113 Comments | - (0)



TGS: Kurkjian: ‘Boonie’ ready to do a great job for Yankees

Aaron Boone had not told them that Bob Boone was his famous father, which tells you a lot about Aaron Boone, who is a normal, well-grounded guy, more like the common man than any major league player I’ve ever met. With a grandfather, a father and a big brother who played in the big leagues—the only three-generation family of All-Stars in major league history—he’d have opportunity to be arrogant, pretentious and condescending, but he is the opposite. He doesn’t take himself too seriously, he plays fantasy football and baseball, he loves USC football, he is self-deprecating. You can poke fun at him and he loves to poke fun at others. He is a great communicator and he can, and will, talk to anyone about anything. All of this says that in this new day of managing, where people skills are more important than anything, Aaron Boone is an excellent choice to manage the New York Yankees.

He has no managerial experience, but he has been around the game for his entire life. And for his entire life, he has paid attention, he is one of the most observant people I have ever met, which is a crucial part of being a manager, and partially explains how he can imitate virtually any batting stance, or pitching motion, of any player over the past 35 years. Pete Rose. Larry Bowa, Ichiro. Dave Winfield. Tommy John. Rick Sutcliffe. A-Rod. Rod Carew. All of them perfect down to the last detail, a facial twitch, the pursing of lips. “I’m working on my Joe Torre,” he once told me.

If Boone really does have the people skills mentioned here and elsewhere, that will go a long way towards helping him be a successful manager.  Obviously he’ll need to be up to the job tactically as well, but as the article mentions he’s pretty much lived in MLB for 44 years and he’s probably a learned a thing or two in that time.  You also have to assume he’s going to be taking direction from the Yankees’ analytic group (although we don’t necessarily know if that’s going to be good or bad).  I’d like to think it’ll be good, perhaps with some bumps along the way.

Now go get Shohei Ohtani and trade Jacoby Ellsbury and I’m ready for 2018.

--Posted at 1:54 pm by SG / 26 Comments | - (0)




Friday, December 1, 2017

Yankees.com: Sources: Yankees tab Boone as new manager

Aaron Boone has already helped the Yankees advance to one World Series. Now they want him to lead the franchise to its next one.

Boone has been selected as the 35th manager in franchise history, two sources confirmed to MLB.com on Friday evening, concluding a managerial search that began on October 26 and spanned five weeks. The Yankees have not made an official announcement.

The author of one of the most memorable moments in Yankees postseason history, a deciding home run off Tim Wakefield that defeated the Red Sox in Game 7 of the 2003 American League Championship Series, Boone will assume the prestigious position without any previous coaching or managerial experience.

Boone was low on my list of possible Yankee managers, but at least he was ahead of Rob Thomson and Eric Wedge in my book, so I guess that’s something.

Clearly, this says a couple things to me…...

1. Cashman really hated how Girardi talked to the media (and possibly, the players, as well)

and

2. Cashman really doesn’t think that much of managers in general, since he didn’t even get a guy who had ever coached before in his career. Cash seems to be looking for a guy to be the “face” of the organization more than anything else.

Luckily, I trust Cash pretty much implicitly, so if this is the kind of guy he wants to manage the team, so long as Cashman provides him with enough good players, the Yankees should be okay.

--Posted at 10:45 pm by Brian Cronin / 60 Comments | - (0)



NY Daily News: Why Yankees will likely name Hensley Meulens or Aaron Boone manager next week

It looks like any day now we are finally going to learn who, among the six candidates interviewed for the Yankee managerial job, was the one who most blew the socks off Brian Cashman.

After practicing his rappelling from the Landmark Building in Stamford, Conn. for the annual Lights and Heights Christmas event Sunday, Cashman said Friday he has closed the doors on further interviews and is ready to make his recommendation to Yankees general partner Hal Steinbrenner from among Aaron Boone, Hensley Meulens, Carlos Beltran, Eric Wedge, Rob Thompson and Chris Woodward for the successor to Joe Girardi. It appears Cashman has already made up his mind so — unless Hal has his own favorite that differs from his GM’s — an official announcement will likely come sometime early next week.

Based on sourced information from how all the interviews went down, it appears Boone, Meulens and Beltran all made the strongest impressions on Cashman and his team of close advisers that included VP of Baseball Operations Tim Naehring, assistant GM Mike Fishman and Senior VP Jean Afterman who were part of the process. You probably have to eliminate Beltran if only because it is highly unlikely Cashman would turn the managerial reins over to someone fresh out of the player ranks — which brings it down to either Boone or Meulens, either of whom would be a popular choice if for no other reason than their engaging personalities.

Come on, Bam Bam!

It sounds like Beltran would have had the gig if he coached even a LITTLE bit, but he hasn’t, so it will be Boone or Meulens. It’s also good to know that apparently Wedge was a courtesy interview because other GMs kept telling Cash how great he was, but that he was never a real consideration.

Come on, Bam Bam!

--Posted at 6:05 pm by Brian Cronin / 43 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, November 30, 2017

Yahoo! Sports: Brown: Can Shohei Ohtani actually succeed as a two-way player?

Ohtani, of course, would appear to be special. He’s ridden the two-way thing into the hearts and minds of big-league franchises, which just last week were tasked with outlining their ideas for how they’d deploy Ohtani from their roster. Given Ohtani throws a 100-mph fastball and that his greater value would seem to be on the mound across 180-or-so innings, the challenge will come in the accumulation of at-bats. That is, where the at-bats will manifest themselves. As a designated hitter three or four times a week? As a semi-regular or platoon right fielder? As a starting pitcher who – gasp – runs the bases, bats with his pitching arm exposed, careens against outfield walls and possesses the time and energy required to acclimate himself to American cities, big-league pitchers and big-league hitters? Could he be great at both? Would the effort alone dilute it all, leaving him great at neither? Shouldn’t he try?

And what would that look like?

Well, no one seems to know for sure. For one, a major league hitter’s day looks pretty full. So does a major league pitcher’s.

--Posted at 9:53 am by SG / 51 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Yankees.com: Yankees’ manager search back in full swing

The holiday shopping season has kicked into high gear, and so has the Yankees’ search for their next manager, with general manager Brian Cashman and his lieutenants reopening the Yankee Stadium offices on Monday morning following their Thanksgiving break.

The Yanks have interviewed five as potential replacements for Joe Girardi, and managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner has said that fewer than 10 candidates are expected to be entertained in all.

Cashman said that the team does not necessarily need to fill the Majors’ only managerial vacancy before the Winter Meetings, which begin Dec. 10 in Lake Buena Vista, Fla. Nor does it necessarily have to fill the position by Christmas or New Year’s Day, though it would be ideal if it could.

You would think that this does not bode well for the first five guys that they interviewed, but perhaps they are just doing due diligence on such a major decision.

Carlos Beltran is apparently the next guy to be interviewed. I like Beltran, but I’d feel a bit weird about a guy going from playing to managing right away. We just saw it fail miserably with Derek Fisher, but it also worked out with Jason Kidd, so I dunno.

I’m still team Bam Bam, but that ship might have sailed!

--Posted at 9:51 am by Brian Cronin / 70 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, November 25, 2017

MLB: Arizona Fall League 2017: Top 25 prospects

8. Estevan Florial, OF, Scottsdale (Yankees): The second-youngest regular (age 19) in the Fall League behind Acuna, Florial similarly can impact the game in a multitude of ways. He’s still raw and gets overly aggressive, but he has well above-average raw power and arm strength to go with plus speed.

9. Justus Sheffield, LHP, Scottsdale (Yankees): Some scouts preferred him to Keller among AFL pitchers. He’s left-handed, owned the league’s best slider and one of its best changeups, and his 92-96 mph fastball ain’t bad either. He led Fall League starters with a 0.84 WHIP.

10. Albert Abreu, RHP, Scottsdale (Yankees):Then again, there are some evaluators who will argue that Sheffield wasn’t even the best Yankees mound prospect in Arizona. At his best, Abreu can demonstrate command of three quality pitches in a 92-98 mph fastball, hard curveball and fading changeup.

15. Thairo Estrada, SS, Scottsdale (Yankees): Though he gets overshadowed in a deep Yankees system, he has the range and arm to play anywhere in the infield and the bat and speed to be useful offensively.

23. Cody Carroll, RHP, Scottsdale (Yankees): Like Munoz a potential closer, Carroll topped the Fall League with four saves while working with a 96-98 mph fastball and often-plus slider. Righties went 0-for-19 and the league as a whole batted .056/.122/.083 against him.

Five of the top 25? That works for me.

--Posted at 11:11 am by SG / 48 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Yankees.com: Yankees add top prospect Torres to 40-man

The Yankees added six players to their 40-man roster in advance of Monday’s 8 p.m. ET deadline to protect players from being selected in next month’s Rule 5 Draft. It completes a busy day of roster moves for the club that also included a pair of Minor League trades earlier in the day to clear space on the roster.

The list of players added is headlined by infielder Gleyber Torres, ranked as the Majors’ No. 1 overall prospect by MLBPipeline.com, infielder Thairo Estrada, outfielder Billy McKinney and right-handers Albert Abreu, Jonathan Loaisiga and Domingo Acevedo.

Besides the absolute no-brainers like Torres, Abreu and Acevedo and the near-no-brainers like Estrade and McKinney, the Yankees made two deals to clear three guys off of the 40-man so that they’d have room for those five as well as Jonathan Loaisiga, who I don’t even remember being a hot shit prospect. It will be interesting to see who is Cash’s current “cut in case someone better comes along.” Cash made two of his vaunted “trade 40-man guys for younger players who don’t need to be protected” deals. They have worked every other time he has done them, so I just assume that these will work, too. Ronald Herrerra, Garrett Cooper and Caleb Smith are hard to miss too much. Cooper and Smith went to a non-rival and it got the Yankees more money to spend on Ohtani.

Good stuff all around!

--Posted at 1:50 am by Brian Cronin / 88 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, November 16, 2017

NY Post: Yankees in surprising push for once-celebrated prospect

ORLANDO, Fla. — The Yankees are still trying to make a trade or two before the Monday deadline to freeze 40-man rosters for December’s Rule 5 draft, and one player who has surprisingly caught their attention is Texas’ Jurickson Profar.

The Yankees are deep in infield prospects, so there is no obvious place for Profar – once the top prospect in the game – to play.

But it seems the Yankees would be willing to take on a single player with upside and pedigree in exchange for multiple players who are crowding their deep 40-man roster.

Texas is interested in the Yankees’ excess pitching whether Profar is in a deal or not. The list of pitchers who are at least a debate whether to stay on the 40-man or be put on despite eligibility includes Luis Cessa, Bryan Mitchell, Caleb Smith, Chasen Shreve, Ronald Herrera, Ben Heller, Jonathan Holder, Gio Gallegos, Cale Coshow, J.P. Feyersien and several others.

Sure, why not take a flier on a youngish player with some upside if you can get him for some of the excess players on the 40 man roster?

--Posted at 10:52 am by SG / 135 Comments | - (0)




Monday, November 13, 2017

Yankees.com: Unanimous decision: Judge named AL ROY

Aaron Judge was unanimously named the Baseball Writers’ Association of America’s American League Rookie of the Year Award winner on Monday, becoming the first Yankee since Derek Jeter in 1996 to garner the honor, and the ninth overall.

Judge, who recently won his first AL Silver Slugger Award, is also an AL MVP Award candidate following a 2017 campaign in which he hit .284 with an AL-leading 52 homers, 128 runs, 114 RBIs and a 1.049 OPS.
Judge’s 52 taters set the Major League rookie record for home runs in a season, breaking Mark McGwire’s mark of 49 homers that had stood for three decades. He also set the rookie record for walks, with 127, passing Ted Williams’ 107 in 1939.
The 25-year-old earned an All-Star nod—while winning the Home Run Derby along the way—and was a finalist for the AL Gold Glove Award for right field.

It was a foregone conclusion, but still nice to see. Congrats to Judge (good on him for the Silver Slugger Award,as well - Sanchez won it, as well. Can you name the last Yankee to win the Silver Slugger award? It’s sort of surprising).

By the way, if he hadn’t had that big September, do you think some yahoo would have still found a way to convince themselves to vote for someone else #1?

--Posted at 6:44 pm by Brian Cronin / 75 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, November 11, 2017

NJ.com: What Yankees manager candidate Eric Wedge revealed about interview

Yankees manager candidate Eric Wedge has a presence just talking to reporters in a group interview over the telephone.
His booming voice exudes confidence, and he comes across as friendly and likable.
While listening to him answer questions for 12 minutes, you can see why he’s still a relatively young man and has 10 years of big-league manager experience.

He’s a tough guy, too: He had a mini stroke in July 2013 and was back managing the Seattle Mariners 33 days later.
Wedge, 49, met with the Yankees management on Friday—the second candidate to interview for Joe Girardi’s old job.
Rob Thomson, a top lieutenant on Girardi’s coaching staff for the last 10 years, interviewed on Wednesday.

ESPN Sunday Night Baseball broadcaster Aaron Boone, a former Yankees third baseman, reportedly is a candidate. Former Yankees pitcher David Cone and catcher John Flaherty, both veteran YES Network television analysts for the club, have expressed interest.

Is it odd that I don’t particularly care who winds up as the manager?  I mean I guess I’d prefer it not be Flaherty but other than that I don’t really have any opinion or concern.  Unless we suddenly hear Bobby Valentine is a candidate…

--Posted at 9:52 am by SG / 39 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, November 9, 2017

NYDN: Yankees can pay most for Shohei Otani, with one exception

MLB rules prohibit the Yankees from blowing away the competition when it comes to paying Shohei Otani.

But they’ll still have advantage over 28 other teams when it comes to how much they can offer the 23-year-old, two-way star from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball League, assuming he’s eligible to come to the majors in 2018.

The Bombers can offer Otani a $3.25 million signing bonus, according to a report from the Associated Press. Only the Rangers, at $3.535 million, can offer more. The Twins are next, at $3.245 million.

Other big market clubs can offer the following: Red Sox ($462,000), Cubs ($300,000), Dodgers ($300,000).

It must be noted, however, that Otani isn’t coming over strictly for the money. If that were the case, he’d wait until he turns 25, when there is no limit on how much teams can offer.

I’d like to think this is an advantage, but Otani doesn’t seem to be the type who cares about money as the last sentence notes.

I’m fairly certain the Yankees will pursue Otani heavily, and they should.  But so should every single team in baseball.  I would think AL teams will have an advantage as he’s pretty much strictly a DH when he’s not pitching now (has not seen the OF since six games in 2014).

The question we obviously must ask is how good will Otani be?  We can look at what he’s done so far in Japan, courtesy of Baseball Reference  First, here are his offensive numbers.  As noted,  although he played some OF his first two years, he’s been strictly a DH for the last three.

 Year  Age  Tm  Lg  Lev  G  PA  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
 2013  18  Nippon Ham  JPPL Fgn 77  204   189  14  45  15  1  3   20  4  1  12  64  .238   .284  .376  .660 
 2014  19  Nippon Ham  JPPL Fgn 87  234   212  32  58  17  1  10   31  1  0  21  48  .274   .338  .505  .842 
 2015  20  Nippon Ham  JPPL Fgn 70  119   109  15  22  4  0  5   17  1  0  8  43  .202   .252  .376  .628 
 2016  21  Nippon Ham  JPPL Fgn 104   382  323  65  104  18  1   22  67  7  2  54  98   .322  .416  .588  1.004 
 2017  22  Nippon Ham  JPPL Fgn 65  231   202  24  67  16  1  8   31  0  1  24  63  .332   .403  .540  .942 
 Total      403  1170  1035  150   296  70  4  48  166  13   4  119  316  .286  .358   .500  .859 

That 2016 line really grabs your attention.  He has fought some injuries in 2017 but his production is still pretty solid, albeit with a bit less power.

Here’s are his lines on the mound.

 Year  Age Tm  Lg Lev  W L  ERA RAvg  G GS  IP H  R ER  HR BB  IBB SO
 2013  18  Nippon Ham  JPPL Fgn 3  0   4.23  4.38  13  11  61.2   57  30  29  4  33  0   46 
 2014  19  Nippon Ham  JPPL Fgn 11  4   2.61  2.9  24  24  155.1   125  50  45  7  57  0   179 
 2015  20  Nippon Ham  JPPL Fgn 15  5   2.24  2.24  22  22  160.2   100  40  40  7  46  0   196 
 2016  21  Nippon Ham  JPPL Fgn 10  4   1.86  2.12  21  20  140   89  33  29  4  45  0   174 
 2017  22  Nippon Ham  JPPL Fgn 3  2   3.2  3.2  5  5  25.1  13   9  9  2  19  0  29 
 Total      42  15  2.52  2.69  85   82  543  384  162  152   24  200  0  624 

Injuries have kept Otani off the mound for a lot of 2017.  For what it’s worth, here’s how a couple of other recent Japanese pitchers that came over to MLB did through age 22.

 Tanaka  Age Tm  Lg Lev  W L  ERA RAvg  G GS  IP H  R ER  HR BB  IBB SO
 2007  18  Rakuten  JPPL Fgn 11  7   3.82  4.01  28  28  186.3   183  83  79  17  68  2   196 
 2008  19  Rakuten  JPPL Fgn 9  7   3.49  3.7  25  24  172.7   171  71  67  9  54  3   159 
 2009  20  Rakuten  JPPL Fgn 15  6   2.33  2.42  25  24  189.7   170  51  49  13  43  0   171 
 2010  21  Rakuten  JPPL Fgn 11  6   2.5  2.73  20  20  155   159  47  43  9  32  1   119 
 2011  22  Rakuten  JPPL Fgn 19  5   1.27  1.39  27  27  226.3   171  35  32  8  27  0   241 
 Total      65  31  2.61  2.78  125   123  930  854  287  270   56  224  6  886 
 Darvish  Age Tm  Lg Lev  W L  ERA RAvg  G GS  IP H  R ER  HR BB  IBB SO
 2005  18  Nippon Ham  JPPL Fgn 5  5   3.53  3.53  14  14  94.33   97  37  37  7  48  1   52 
 2006  19  Nippon Ham  JPPL Fgn 12  5   2.89  3.31  25  24  149.7   128  55  48  12  64  0   115 
 2007  20  Nippon Ham  JPPL Fgn 15  5   1.82  2.08  26  26  207.7   123  48  42  9  49  1   210 
 2008  21  Nippon Ham  JPPL Fgn 16  4   1.88  1.97  25  24  200.7   136  44  42  11  44  0   208 
 2009  22  Nippon Ham  JPPL Fgn 15  5   1.73  1.78  23  23  182   118  36  35  9  45  0   167 
 Total      63  24  2.2  2.37  113   111  834.3  602  220  204   48  250  2  752 

On a rate basis, Otani’s been just about as good as Masahiro Tanaka and Yu Darvish were through the same age, although they both were able to log significantly more innings.  Darvish pitched for the same team as Otani but Tanaka also pitched in the Pacific League, which uses the DH.

Anyway, what he’s done so far in a different league may give us some inkling of his talent but it doesn’t necessarily tell us what he would do in MLB.  I’ve finished up my first set of CAIRO 2018 and although it may change, here’s the first crack at projecting Otani as a DH.

 Percentile  PA AB  R H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB SO  SB CS  avg obp  slg ops  oWAR
 80%  385  346  61   104  24  3  18  57  39   76  8  0  .301  .387   .546  .933  2.5 
 65%  368  330  54   94  20  2  16  51  35   77  6  1  .286  .363   .504  .867  1.6 
 Baseline 350  315   48  85  17  2  13  45   30  78  5  2  .271  .340   .461  .801  0.7 
 35%  280  252  36   65  12  1  9  33  22   66  3  2  .256  .316   .419  .734  0.0 
 20%  210  189  25   46  8  0  6  23  15   52  2  2  .242  .292   .376  .668  -0.5 

The average slash line for DHs in the AL last year was .243/.317/.418.  Given Otani’s youth and the fact that he bats left-handed, it’s not crazy to think he could give you that 65% forecast out of DH if he were a Yankee.

Otani isn’t really being looked at for his offense though.  While there’s some potential to get some offense out of him, teams want him for his arm.

Percentile W  L IP  H R  ER HR  BB SO  RA ERA  FIP WAR
 80%  16  5  187   132  66  60  12  48  175   3.18  2.90  2.98  6.7 
 65%  13  6  168   129  66  60  13  49  157   3.54  3.23  3.28  5.3 
 Baseline 10  7   150  126  65  60  14  49   140  3.93  3.60  3.60  4.1 
 35%  7  6  115   105  56  51  12  42  107   4.35  3.99  3.96  2.6 
 20%  4  5  83   82  44  41  10  34  77   4.81  4.42  4.38  1.4 

The standard caveats about projections apply, but in Otani’s case doubly so.  That being said, you can sign Otani and imagine getting 10 WAR out of him at the plate and on the mound.  But even if he just hits that 35% forecast as a pitcher and as a hitter, he’s still going to a valuable player to have.  And you can dream on his tools and the potential to market him as a true two-way player, the likes of which the game hasn’t seen Brooks Kieschnick or Micah Owings.

On the mound, Ohtani has as good a fastball as anyone in baseball. He’s been up to 102 mph and touches triple digits with some regularity. Ohtani throws a nasty splitter and a slider that’s just as good, and it all comes from a loose, athletic, 6-foot-5 frame and delivery.

“He’s every bit of a top-end-of-the-rotation starter,” said another international scouting director who saw Ohtani pitch recently. “He threw well the other day, even if his command was a little off. The stuff is there. He has all the pitches he needs. He’s 23 and everything works. He’s shown he can put it together in the Japan League. For me, he would go straight to the big leagues and figure it out there.”

That report alone—three plus pitches, with a tall and athletic frame to go along with easily repeatable mechanics—would be more than enough to have teams line up to try and sign Ohtani. But even those who feel the arm is ahead of the bat agree there are some impressive offensive tools to consider.

“He’s a big, strong guy,” the second scouting director said. “At 6-foot-5, he’s a long-lever guy. He has shortened up his swing a little and has the chance to hit for some power. When you have a top-end-of-rotation guy, he’s more of a pitcher for me. But he has the chance to be a good hitter. He’s a very, very good athlete.”

“Ohtani is already hitting really well at [Japan’s] highest level,” a third director said. “But you don’t see the pitching there that you see here.”

The first scouting director said he’d put Ohtani’s raw power among the best of any player at any level currently and also had recorded home-to-first times at 3.9 seconds, which is well above average and a part of his game not often discussed. All agreed that if Ohtani wanted to just hit, teams would be very interested in his services.

I’ve read that Otani idolizes Darvish and whomever signs Darvish will have an edge in signing Otani as well.  Combined with the fact that they have the most to offer him and are probably interested in bringing back Darvish, I’d say the Rangers are probably the favorites to wind up with Otani.  But it would awesome if the Yankees somehow managed to snag him.

--Posted at 9:46 am by SG / 112 Comments | - (0)




Monday, November 6, 2017

Yankees.com: Judge up for ROY & MVP; Sevy for Cy Young

The beginning of baseball’s awards season could see some serious hardware delivered to the Bronx. Aaron Judge’s historic season has placed the Yankees slugger as a finalist for both the American League Most Valuable Player Award and the AL’s Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Award, while Luis Severino stands as a finalist for the AL Cy Young Award.

Good for Severino!

Judge is up against Trey Mancini and Andrew Benintendi for the Rookie of the Year, Sevy is up against Corey Kluber and Chris Sale for Cy Young and Judge is up against Jose Altuve and Jose Ramirez for MVP.

Hey, one out of three won’t be bad!

--Posted at 8:06 pm by Brian Cronin / 64 Comments | - (0)



NJ.com: Which prospects will Yankees protect from Rule 5 Draft?

The New York Yankees have a bevy of talented prospects. But they can’t keep all of them. See our predictions on which young stars general manager Brian Cashman will protect from the Rule 5 Draft.
First, a quick breakdown of who’s available in the Rule 5, via Baseball America:

With a few exceptions, any player who was younger than 19 on June 4 of their signing year is eligible to be picked if they are not on a 40-man roster after their fifth pro year. Any player who was 19 or older on June 4 of their signing year is eligible after their fourth pro season.

I guess it’s a first world problem when you have so much talent in your organization that you won’t be able to keep it all.  Hopefully the Yankees won’t lose anyone that will sting down the line.

--Posted at 9:28 am by SG / 47 Comments | - (0)




Friday, November 3, 2017

Yankees.com: Tanaka declines to opt out, will stay with Yanks

Right-hander Masahiro Tanaka announced on Friday night that he will not exercise the opt-out clause in his contract, preserving his current contract with the Yankees, which runs through 2020.

Tanaka issued the following statement:

“I have decided to stay with the Yankees for the next three seasons. It was a simple decision for me as I have truly enjoyed the past four years playing for this organization and for the wonderful fans of New York.

“I’m excited to continue to be a part of this team, and I’m committed to our goal of bringing a World Series championship back to the Steinbrenner family, the Yankees organization and the great fans of New York.”

Awesome news for the Yankees.

Now, let’s see if they’re able to get Otani, as well.

It will also be interesting to see what this means with regards to their payroll issues. Will they feel the need to trade one of their expensive relief pitchers to get under the luxury tax cap?

--Posted at 6:33 pm by Brian Cronin / 61 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, November 2, 2017

NY Post: Masahiro Tanaka is Yankees’ first offseason domino

The end of the World Series on Wednesday means the clock is ticking on Masahiro Tanaka.

The Yankees’ right-hander has until Saturday to decide whether to opt out of the final three years and $67 million of his contract.

It figures to be the second significant move of the offseason for the Yankees, who are already looking for a new manager to replace Joe Girardi after his contract wasn’t renewed last week.

If Tanaka doesn’t opt out, he would remain in a rotation that should include Luis Severino, Sonny Gray and Jordan Montgomery.

CC Sabathia will be a free agent and is a possibility to return, or prospect Chance Adams may get a look.

Tanaka, who turned 29 on Wednesday, may elect to join Sabathia in free agency, where Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta figure to head a class that is not particularly strong.

Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn also will be on the market.

The Yankees also could offer Tanaka an extension, like they did with Sabathia when he had an option to become a free agent in 2011.

Among the factors that figure to enter into Tanaka’s decision will be his strong finish to the season — and whether his performance in the playoffs outweighs his terrible first half and the small tear in his elbow that he’s been pitching with since July 2014.

I’d be wary of extending Tanaka given the aforementioned elbow tear, but you have to figure he will opt out.  Someone is going to give him more than the $67M remaining on his deal, be it a fourth year or even more than that.

It’ll be interesting to see if the following tidbit from a Jon Heyman article at the end of August is true.

The Yankees won’t “chase” Masahiro Tanaka, sources close to the situation say. Of course, if Tanaka should actually opt out, things could change. But for now, someone in the know insisted that they wouldn’t bid above what’s left on Tanaka’s deal — $67 million, three years,

I wonder if that’s still true given the way Tanaka pitched in the playoffs?

Anyway, I’d be happy if Tanaka does not opt out.  I don’t think the Yankees need him, but I think it would be nice to have him back.

--Posted at 10:30 am by SG / 48 Comments | - (0)




Monday, October 30, 2017

Yankees.com: Judge, Gardner among Gold Glove finalists

Yankees outfielders Aaron Judge and Brett Gardner are among the finalists for an American League Gold Glove Award, given annually since 1957 to the standout defensive players at each position in each league.

The Rawlings Gold Glove Award winners will be announced on Nov. 7 at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN. One player from each league will also be named a Platinum Glove Award winner.


Gardner is vying for his second defensive honor after taking home his first Gold Glove Award in 2016. In doing so, he became the first Yankees outfielder to win the award since Bernie Williams won four in a row from 1997-2000.


He’s competing against the Royals’ Alex Gordon and the Angels’ Justin Upton in left field.


Judge, meanwhile, can add some hardware to an incredible rookie campaign that included an AL-leading 52 home runs. The 25-year-old is a near-lock to win AL Rookie of the Year and among the candidates for the AL Most Valuable Player Award.


Judge is up against the Angels’ Kole Calhoun and the Red Sox’s Mookie Betts in right field.

Gardner has a good chance, since they love to keep giving the award to a player once they start giving the award to a player. Judge, though, should have no chance against a legit stud rightfielder like Betts (dude’s a guy who could play second or center field, of COURSE he’s a great right fielder), but hey, people like to vote for players for weird reasons, so maybe Judge could eke a win out.

In other news, Kevin Long is possibly being considered for the Yankees Hitting Coach gig, as it looks like the Yankees might just clean house. I liked Long a lot, so I’d be okay with it, but I also think Alan Cockrell seems to be doing an okay job (and I really like his assistant, Marcus Thames).

--Posted at 9:09 am by Brian Cronin / 113 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, October 26, 2017

NY Times: Joe Girardi Is Out as Yankees’ Manager

After a decade in the job that included a championship season in 2009, Joe Girardi is out as manager of the Yankees.

The 53-year-old Girardi announced his departure in an emailed statement on Thursday morning, saying, “With a heavy heart, I come to you because the Yankees have decided not to bring me back.” The statement went on to thank everyone from the Steinbrenner family to General Manager Brian Cashman to his coaches and other team personnel, and it concluded with Girardi saying that the “passion and excitement” of the 2017 postseason would “remain in my heart forever.”

In a separate statement, issued by the Yankees, Cashman said that he wanted to thank Girardi “for his 10 years of hard work and service” and that the team had “decided to pursue alternatives for the managerial position.”

This postseason was both exhilarating and painfully disappointing for Girardi and the Yankees, ending in a loss in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series. Two other managers — the Washington Nationals’ Dusty Baker and the Boston Red Sox’ John Farrell — lost their jobs this month after their teams were ousted from the postseason. Girardi becomes the third.

I’m shocked.  Not that Girardi is leaving, but that it’s because the Yankees have decided they didn’t want to bring him back.

I hope they have a good replacement in mind, because for all his faults Girardi was probably in the top 10 of all MLB managers and it won’t be that easy to replace him.

--Posted at 10:53 am by SG / 250 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, October 25, 2017

NY Post: An eerie quiet in the Bronx with Girardi’s Yankees future in flux

Three days after the Yankees’ season ended in Game 7 of the ALCS and a week away from his contract expiring, Joe Girardi’s future with the organization was dancing in the wind.

Girardi, whose four-year, $16 million deal expires Oct. 31, arrived at Yankee Stadium at noon. By 1 p.m., a grim-looking Girardi waved to three reporters and without stopping his SUV, made a left onto River Avenue heading north.

Since general manager Brian Cashman, whose contract also runs out next week, was in the building, it was highly likely that Girardi and Cashman, who have worked together for the past 10 seasons, spoke.

However, the silence that smothered the situation following Girardi’s departure strongly indicated something is percolating.

Hal Steinbrenner, who would have had to authorize Cashman to not bring Girardi back, has been a Girardi supporter for a long time. He didn’t return an email.

Girardi, who has said multiple times in recent weeks his family would play a part in whether he returns, didn’t respond to an email.

Cashman didn’t reply to text messages or a voicemail. None of Girardi’s coaches contacted returned messages.

Not responding to emails or texts doesn’t mean anything, but I do wonder if Girardi is going to stick around.  You’d think he’d enjoy the chance to manage a youngish team with some potential to be a perennial contender over the life of his next contract, but he could also be burnt out and probably doesn’t need either the money or the stress any more.

I’ve generally liked Girardi, even though he’s not perfect.  Of course, no manager is.  I’m still not particularly happy about the non-challenge in Game 2 of the ALDS, and I do think his bullpen management has gotten a bit more formulaic and thus worse but I’m not sure there is a better option out there now.

I guess we’ll see what’s going to happen soon enough.

--Posted at 9:05 am by SG / 121 Comments | - (0)




Monday, October 23, 2017

NY Times: The Yankees Have a Consolation Prize: The 2018 Season

It has been years since the future of the Yankees has been as clear as it is now. A dynamic core of young talent, centered on the captivating Aaron Judge, is in place. Burdensome contracts — symbols of the checkbook strategy that the Yankees used to rely on to build contenders — are coming off the books.

It does not take pinstriped glasses to envision World Series title No. 28 in the near future — with 29 and 30 not that far behind.

In effect, this Yankees season, which did not end until a Game 7 loss to the Houston Astros in the American League Championship Series on Saturday, was an affirmation of an organizational evolution, one in which the impetuous has largely given way to the meticulous.

And yet, in the somber aftermath of Saturday’s defeat, it was hard not to recognize the inevitable uncertainty of the winter ahead.

Part of what made this season special—and it was special despite how it ended—was that it was a surprise.  Nobody expected Aaron Judge to do what he did this year.  Few expected the season Luis Severino ended up having.  Raise your hand if you saw Chad Green coming?

The Yankees could very well be better in 2018 than they were this year, but it’s not a given.  They do have to replace several important parts of the team and it’s fairly likely we’ll see regression in a lot of areas that exceeded expectations.  But now we also are going to expect great things from them going forward, and while I’m optimistic it’s not a given.  Houston isn’t really going anywhere any time soon.  Cleveland will probably be a top team again next year.  Boston is always around and always irritating.

I’m not so sure 2018 is going to be a consolation prize, especially with Hal-Cap™.  The Yankees are freeing up a fair amount of money but they can’t spend a lot of it if they want to remain under that salary cap.  Maybe that’s better and will force them to give more prospects an extended look.  But it also means that there’s a good chance the 2018 team won’t be as good as the 2017 team was.

Still, the outlook is far better for this organization now than it was a year ago, and that’s pretty nice.

--Posted at 8:30 am by SG / 68 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, October 21, 2017

Yankees.com: Yanks’ run ends with Game 7 loss to Astros

The deafening roars began on the first pitch thrown by Charlie Morton in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series, and they didn’t stop. Solo homers by Evan Gattis in the fourth inning and Jose Altuve in the fifth rocked Minute Maid Park, and a two-run double by Brian McCann later in the fifth sent the ballpark into a frenzy.

The party was just getting started.

Only four years after losing a club-record 111 games—in their first year in the AL in 2013—the Astros completed a remarkable run to the World Series by beating the Yankees, 4-0, on Saturday night to win the ALCS and send Houston to its second Fall Classic.

The Astros pretty clearly outplayed the Yankees. The Yankees scored only three runs in their four games in Houston. You’re not going to win many games with that kind of offensive output. Morton/McCullers was just too much for the Yankees.

The Yankees pulled out one of their classic “Relievers performing only when the game is out of reach” games, with Tommy Kahnle giving up an awful double to Brian McCann with two outs in the fifth. Since the Yankees scored no runs, the game was already lost as soon as CC gave up a solo home run to Evan Gattis, but it was still brutal to see Kahnle unable to put McCann away with two strikes. Sticking with Kahnle made sense there, he just got beat by a mediocre hitter. Sometimes, good players suck. The Yankees saw that with D-Rob last night.

If the Yankees want to get back here next year, they really have to keep Tanaka, so hopefully that works out.

All in all, this was a productive season, but they need to do even better next year. Hopefully we get to see Gleyber next year!

--Posted at 11:31 pm by Brian Cronin / 64 Comments | - (0)



Yankees (91-71) @ Astros (101-61), Saturday, 10/21/2017, 06:08p ET

Yankees: CC Sabathia (L): (148.2 IP, 3.69 ERA, 3.4 RA9 WAR) vs. Astros: Charlie Morton (R): (146.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 2.8 RA9 WAR)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
4. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
5. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
6. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
7. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .213/.344/.428, 3 fWAR
9. Chase Headley (S) DH .273/.352/.406, 1.9 fWAR
Team Total: 30.0 fWAR

Astros
1. George Springer (R) CF .283/.367/.522, 4.5 fWAR
2. Alex Bregman (R) 3B .284/.352/.475, 3.8 fWAR
3. Jose Altuve (R) 2B .346/.410/.547, 7.5 fWAR
4. Carlos Correa (R) SS .315/.391/.550, 5.2 fWAR
5. Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B .299/.332/.486, 1.8 fWAR
6. Evan Gattis (R) DH .263/.311/.457, 0.9 fWAR
7. Brian McCann (L) C .241/.323/.436, 1.6 fWAR
8. Marwin Gonzalez (S) LF .303/.377/.530, 4.1 fWAR
9. Josh Reddick (L) RF .314/.363/.484, 3.5 fWAR
Team Total: 32.9 fWAR

This is probably the last game of the Yankees’ season.  It was mostly fun while it lasted.

--Posted at 5:42 pm by SG / 296 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Yanks can’t close out ALCS; Game 7 tonight

Another dominant performance by Justin Verlander saved the Astros’ season for at least one more day and forced a Game 7 against the Yankees in the American League Championship Series.

Verlander threw seven scoreless innings for the Astros, who got clutch hits from Brian McCann and Jose Altuve in the fifth and a spectacular catch at the wall in the seventh by George Springer to beat the Yankees, 7-1, on Friday night in Game 6 at Minute Maid Park.
“For us to get to Game 7, I’m glad we played well enough to have home-field advantage,” Astros manager A.J. Hinch said. “It’s going to be here in Houston.”

The Astros, looking to advance to their second World Series, will meet the Yankees, who are aiming for their 41st AL pennant, on Saturday in a win-or-go-home game. Since the LCS expanded to seven games in 1985, home teams are 18-7 in Game 7s. The home team has won the first six games of this ALCS.

This reminded me a lot of the first two games, where every close call went against the Yankees (not umpire calls, although the strike zone certainly changed abruptly for Severino in the fifth inning), I mean just lucky stuff,. That is, until David Robertson came into the game and was just terrible. Honestly, I don’t know if I’d even want Robertson to pitch in Game 7 at all. He might have to be given the Chad Green Post-Game 2 treatment.

Anyhow, as we all expected when the season began, everything will boil down to CC Sabathia bailing them out in the decisive Game 7. Let’s hope that he had at least one miraculous performance left in that creaky old left arm (fun fact - did you know that CC is right handed? He just throws with his left hand. All the normal, everyday stuff he does with his right hand). Plus, let us hope that the second engagement for McCullers Charlie Morton (why are they starting Morton over McCullers?) is like Game 3.

--Posted at 12:33 am by Brian Cronin / 39 Comments | - (0)




Friday, October 20, 2017

Yankees (91-71) @ Astros (101-61), Friday, 10/20/2017, 08:08p ET

Yankees: Luis Severino (R): (193.1 IP, 2.98 ERA, 5.5 RA9 WAR) vs. Astros: Justin Verlander (R): (206 IP, 3.36 ERA, 5.9 RA9 WAR)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
4. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
5. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
6. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
7. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .213/.344/.428, 3 fWAR
9. Chase Headley (S) DH .273/.352/.406, 1.9 fWAR
Team Total: 30.0 fWAR

Astros
1. George Springer (R) CF .283/.367/.522, 4.5 fWAR
2. Josh Reddick (L) RF .314/.363/.484, 3.5 fWAR
3. Jose Altuve (R) 2B .346/.410/.547, 7.5 fWAR
4. Carlos Correa (R) SS .315/.391/.550, 5.2 fWAR
5. Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B .299/.332/.486, 1.8 fWAR
6. Alex Bregman (R) 3B .284/.352/.475, 3.8 fWAR
7. Marwin Gonzalez (S) LF .303/.377/.530, 4.1 fWAR
8. Evan Gattis (R) DH .263/.311/.457, 0.9 fWAR
9. Brian McCann (L) C .241/.323/.436, 1.6 fWAR
Team Total: 32.9 fWAR

I never thought this series was coming back to Houston.  While the Yankees are now the favorites to win this series, they are probably the underdog in each of the two games that are potentially going to be played.

The good news is that Justin Verlander is no Lance McCullers or Dallas Keuchel.  The bad news is Luis Severino is no CC Sabathia or Sonny Gray or Masahiro Tanaka.  In fact, by Game Score two of Severino’s worst three starts in the regular season were versus Houston, against whom he pitched a total of 7.2 innings while allowing 15 hits , nine runs and four walks.  That’s not particularly good.  We all know that Verlander has dominated the Yankees all season, holding them to one run and averaging 13 K per nine innings.  Dominant.

If there is a Game 7, all momentum will have shifted back to Houston and it’s essentially a guaranteed loss for the Yankees.  The Yankees don’t have to win tonight but I am certain that whomever wins tonight’s game will win the AL pennant and earn the privilege of losing to the Dodgers in the World Series.

The fact that the Yankees have won three games in the ALCS is cool, but it would be even cooler if they won a fourth one.

--Posted at 3:54 pm by SG / 261 Comments | - (0)



Yahoo! Sports: Passan: ALCS Game 5: The New York Yankees are actually likable

The idea that this makes the Yankees what they are – that they’re somehow parlaying this status into motivation to win – is silly. No, this is something instead that’s embedded in them, that for years has motivated them, because so many on the Yankees roster found themselves at a nadir similar to Tanaka’s in May.

For Greg Bird, who missed most of the season with an injury after missing all of the previous season with an injury, it was: Could he stay healthy? He was Wednesday, and he drew first blood on Keuchel, who had entered the game with a career 1.09 ERA against the Yankees, with an RBI single in the third inning.

For Judge, first it was the horror of last season, when in his major league debut he struck out in half his at-bats, and then, after an MVP-type season this year, the clowns that conflated a week’s worth of postseason struggles with an inability to perform in October. It was dumb then, and Judge proved in dumber in the third inning, when he doubled home Brett Gardner to hand the Yankees a 2-0 lead.

For Sanchez, it was down in the minor leagues, where he had stagnated and his prospect luster had dimmed. Scouts never doubted his talent. They did wonder whether he would fulfill it. As his RBI single in the fifth that helped chase Keuchel and his solo home run in the seventh that provided the Yankees’ final run attested: Yes. Yes he would.

--Posted at 9:31 am by SG / 93 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, October 19, 2017

Yankees.com: Masa-zero! Yanks blank Astros, lead ALCS 3-2

The Yankees recognized that they would have to find a way to defeat Dallas Keuchel or Justin Verlander in order to advance, and they attacked that challenge head on. Having toppled one of the Astros’ aces to move within one win of the 41st World Series in franchise history, they will now focus their attention on the other.
The Bombers’ new core of Greg Bird, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Didi Gregorius all contributed run-scoring hits to back Masahiro Tanaka’s dominant effort as the Yankees remained unbeaten at home this postseason, defeating the Astros, 5-0, in Wednesday’s Game 5 of the American League Championship Series.

“We have a great group of guys. We’re always positive,” Sanchez said through an interpreter. “As you know, it’s a long season and there’s up and downs. The important thing is that we always stayed positive, and now we have one more game to get to the World Series. We’ll focus on that.”

That was pretty damned amazing. Keuchel had been next to unhittable against the Yankees (SG showed the stats the other day - just insane) and the Yankees managed to get 4 runs off of him! Meanwhile, Tanaka is making himself so much goddamn money with his postseason performance this year. He’s truly the definition of the “Big Game Pitcher.” Hopefully he somehow doesn’t opt out.

So here we are - the Yankees need to win 1 of the next 2 games to make it to the World Series. Just stunning. The bad news for the Yankees (and the hope for the Astros) is that Justin Verlander is pitching Game 6 and he will be tough to beat, especially at home. You really want to avoid a winner takes all Game 7, so the Yankees need to find a way to figure Verlander out somehow. It does not seem to be particularly likely, but hey, ya never know! Hopefully Luis Severino has a good game on Friday.

Just a remarkable turn of events for the Yankees.

--Posted at 2:53 am by Brian Cronin / 164 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Astros (101-61) @ Yankees (91-71), Wednesday, 10/18/2017, 05:08p ET

Astros: Dallas Keuchel (L): (145.2 IP, 2.90 ERA, 4.5 RA9 WAR) vs. Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka (R): (178.1 IP, 4.74 ERA, 1.7 RA9 WAR)

Lineups
Astros
1. George Springer (R) CF .283/.367/.522, 4.5 fWAR
2. Josh Reddick (L) RF .314/.363/.484, 3.5 fWAR
3. Jose Altuve (R) 2B .346/.410/.547, 7.5 fWAR
4. Carlos Correa (R) SS .315/.391/.550, 5.2 fWAR
5. Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B .299/.332/.486, 1.8 fWAR
6. Alex Bregman (R) 3B .284/.352/.475, 3.8 fWAR
7. Carlos Beltran (S) DH .231/.283/.383, -1.1 fWAR
8. Marwin Gonzalez (S) LF .303/.377/.530, 4.1 fWAR
9. Brian McCann (L) C .241/.323/.436, 1.6 fWAR
Team Total: 30.9 fWAR

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
5. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
6. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
7. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .213/.344/.428, 3 fWAR
9. Chase Headley (S) DH .273/.352/.406, 1.9 fWAR
Team Total: 30.0 fWAR

How can we put Dallas Keuchel’s career dominance over the Yankees into perspective?  How about some data?

Player PA AB Hits 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP K BA OBA Slug% OPS
Dallas Keuchel 212 204 37 7 0 0 8 8 0 62 .181 .210 0.216 .426
Lee Smith 123 112 19 2 0 1 4 11 0 34 .170 .244 0.214 .458
Grant Jackson 115 108 19 3 0 2 10 5 1 23 .176 .217 0.259 .476
Dave McNally 126 111 19 5 0 0 4 13 1 15 .171 .262 0.216 .478
Darren O’Day 182 161 27 2 0 3 9 19 1 45 .168 .258 0.236 .494
Casey Janssen 159 149 28 5 0 2 13 7 3 41 .188 .239 0.262 .501
Pete Harnisch 122 112 22 3 1 0 6 10 0 28 .196 .262 0.241 .503
Greg Minton 112 100 20 1 0 1 7 11 0 10 .200 .277 0.24 .517
Steven Wright 125 115 20 3 0 3 8 9 1 25 .174 .240 0.278 .518
Salome Barojas 213 198 42 3 0 2 15 12 2 25 .212 .263 0.258 .521
Mark Eichhorn 190 170 32 9 0 2 21 15 4 33 .188 .268 0.276 .544
Drew Smyly 159 150 26 5 0 6 9 8 1 42 .173 .220 0.327 .547
Woodie Fryman 113 102 21 0 0 2 6 11 0 17 .206 .283 0.265 .548
Corey Kluber 187 178 33 10 0 5 12 7 2 58 .185 .225 0.326 .551
Koji Uehara 160 156 30 5 0 6 10 4 0 52 .192 .212 0.34 .552
Chris Sale 348 322 61 12 1 8 19 19 6 111 .189 .247 0.307 .554
Jim Barr 113 106 25 2 0 1 5 7 0 6 .236 .283 0.283 .566
Danys Baez 191 174 34 5 1 4 19 16 0 41 .195 .262 0.305 .567
Frank Castillo 159 145 29 4 0 4 9 11 1 20 .200 .258 0.31 .568
Jim Todd 134 121 26 2 0 2 14 13 0 9 .215 .291 0.281 .572

What does this table show?  It is the top 20 career splits for everyone who has faced at least 100 Yankee batters over their career (data goes back to 1974), sorted by OPS in ascending order.  I’ve added Keuchel’s two postseason starts to the data.

Yep.  Keuchel has arguably been the most effective pitcher against the Yankees EVER.  If you want to get even more annoyed by this, note that Keuchel has a career ERA of 1.09 and FIP of 1.47 vs. the Yankees, compared to career ERA/FIP of:

vs. Boston: 9.88/5.93
vs. Tampa Bay: 4.78/4.00

The good news is that Dallas Keuchel is no Justin Verlander or Lance McCullers.  The bad news is Masahiro Tanaka is no Luis Severino or CC Sabathia or Sonny Gray.  With Friday’s game a guaranteed loss, the Yankees have to win today to at least make Houston tire out a bit before their destined trip to the World Series vs. the Dodgers, and to at least let the fans at DNYS go home happy one more time.

The fact that the Yankees have won two games in the ALCS is cool, but it would be even cooler if they won a third one.

--Posted at 1:46 pm by SG / 274 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Judge & fury: Yankees erupt late, tie ALCS!

There is no quit in these “Baby Bombers,” and as their youthful exuberance fuels an incredible postseason run, they have summoned the excitement of Bronx Octobers past. The triple decks of Yankee Stadium are being transformed into a deafening, swaying party zone on a nightly basis.

Aaron Judge homered and delivered a game-tying hit, while Gary Sanchez crushed the go-ahead double in a decisive four-run eighth as the Yankees stunned the Astros with a 6-4 victory in Game 4 on Tuesday to even the American League Championship Series at two games apiece.

“That ballpark is alive. It was unbelievable,” Judge said. “That stadium was rocking, the fans were going crazy. I didn’t know what to do after I touched home plate. That’s why we play this game, for a moment like that.”
Nine outs away from having to face Dallas Keuchel with their season on the line, Judge sparked the Yankees’ comeback from a four-run deficit with his third homer of the postseason, a solo drive to Monument Park that chased starter Lance McCullers Jr. The Yanks rallied for six unanswered runs, ensuring the ALCS presented by Camping World will be completed in Houston. In best-of-seven LCS, teams that win Game 5 to go ahead 3-2 have gone on to win 13 of 16 times.

Yes, they did, indeed, put an exclamation mark in their headlines. MLB.com headlines are so weird. First CC-sick and now an exclamation mark in a headline.

Anyhow, that, of course, was just incredible. Down 4-0 after six and a half innings (Sonny Gray battled like crazy - good for him), the Yankees then scored 6 unanswered runs to win the ballgame. Excellent.

Not only that, but D-Rob and Chapman barely pitched and Tommy Kahnle did not pitch at all, so all three pitchers should be available to pitch multiple innings, if need be, in Wednesday’s Game 5. Hopefully Tanaka can pitch like he did against the Indians in Game 3 of the ALDS.

An underrated aspect of Game 4? The asshole fan who did not just reach over the fence on Judge’s game-tying double, but made a huge effort to reach over the fence on the hit. What a selfish asshole. There is a possibility that they could have ruled that fan interference. Just inexplicably terrible behavior from that fan.

Judge is hot right now and when Judge is hot, well, that’s a good thing. Let’s just hope that a hot Judge can actually do something against Keuchel. And, of course, let’s hope that Tanaka pitches well.

--Posted at 12:48 am by Brian Cronin / 52 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Astros (101-61) @ Yankees (91-71), Tuesday, 10/17/2017, 05:08p ET

Astros: Lance McCullers Jr. (R): (118.2 IP, 4.25 ERA, 1.4 RA9 WAR) vs. Yankees: Sonny Gray (R): (162.1 IP, 3.55 ERA, 2.6 RA9 WAR)

Lineups
Astros
1. George Springer (R) CF .283/.367/.522, 4.5 fWAR
2. Josh Reddick (L) RF .314/.363/.484, 3.5 fWAR
3. Jose Altuve (R) 2B .346/.410/.547, 7.5 fWAR
4. Carlos Correa (R) SS .315/.391/.550, 5.2 fWAR
5. Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B .299/.332/.486, 1.8 fWAR
6. Alex Bregman (R) 3B .284/.352/.475, 3.8 fWAR
7. Carlos Beltran (S) DH .231/.283/.383, -1.1 fWAR
8. Marwin Gonzalez (S) LF .303/.377/.530, 4.1 fWAR
9. Brian McCann (L) C .241/.323/.436, 1.6 fWAR
Team Total: 30.9 fWAR

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
4. Gary Sanchez (R) DH .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
5. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
6. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
7. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .213/.344/.428, 3 fWAR
9. Austin Romine (R) C .218/.272/.293, -0.6 fWAR
Team Total: 27.5 fWAR

I was thinking the Yankees need more Austin Romine in the lineup.  Just not in the FREAKING ALCS.  I’d assume this means pinch-hitting at some point and losing the DH and severly hindering how long the team can deploy their relievers since they’ll have to keep pinch-hitting for them.

The good news is that Lance Mucullers is no Dallas Keuchel or Justin Verlander.  The bad news is Sonny Gray is no Masahiro Tanaka or Luis Severino or CC Sabathia.  With tomorrow’s game a guaranteed loss, the Yankees have to win today to at least prevent Houston from celebrating in Yankee Stadium when they wrap up the ALCS. 

The fact that the Yankees won a game in the ALCS is cool, but it would be even cooler if they won a second one.

--Posted at 12:59 pm by SG / 434 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Yanks, Judge make Astros CC sick in G3

Each of the three October contests between the Astros and Yankees have featured loud chants of “M-V-P!” echoing throughout a sold-out venue. Jose Altuve’s fantastic season has continued for Houston, but Monday night’s plaudits were for Aaron Judge, as the Yanks’ rookie right fielder enjoyed a postseason performance for the ages at Yankee Stadium.
Judge crushed a three-run homer in the fourth inning and made several splendid defensive plays, including a fearless crash into the right-field wall in the top of the fourth, as he made his presence felt by powering the Yankees’ surge in an 8-1 victory over the Astros in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series presented by Camping World.

I don’t see how the Yankees just let CC Sabathia go after all he’s done this season and the postseason.

Great win and it gave the Yankees the all-important Pythagoras advantage in the series. Thank goodness Aaron Judge had a good game, as it was getting brutal hearing the coverage he was getting.

Anyhow, the season (more or less) turns on Tuesday afternoon’s game. The Yankees have been avoiding Sonny Gray all postseason since he was bad in Game 1 of the ALDS. Let’s hope that he proves everybody wrong in Game 2! The Astros are countering with Lance McCullers, who has had success against the Yankees, over their normal #4 starter, Brad Peacock. Let’s hope that that was a mistake on their part!

--Posted at 6:02 am by Brian Cronin / 48 Comments | - (0)




Monday, October 16, 2017

Astros (101-61) @ Yankees (91-71), Monday, 10/16/2017, 08:08p ET

Astros: Charlie Morton (R): (146.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 2.8 RA9 WAR) vs. Yankees: CC Sabathia (L): (148.2 IP, 3.69 ERA, 3.4 RA9 WAR)

Lineups
Astros
1. George Springer (R) CF .283/.367/.522, 4.5 fWAR
2. Alex Bregman (R) 3B .284/.352/.475, 3.8 fWAR
3. Jose Altuve (R) 2B .346/.410/.547, 7.5 fWAR
4. Carlos Correa (R) SS .315/.391/.550, 5.2 fWAR
5. Yuli Gurriel (R) DH .299/.332/.486, 1.8 fWAR
6. Evan Gattis (R) C .263/.311/.457, 0.9 fWAR
7. Marwin Gonzalez (S) 1B .303/.377/.530, 4.1 fWAR
8. Josh Reddick (L) RF .314/.363/.484, 3.5 fWAR
9. Cameron Maybin (R) LF .228/.318/.365, 1.2 fWAR
Team Total: 32.5 fWAR

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
4. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
5. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
6. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
7. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .213/.344/.428, 3 fWAR
9. Chase Headley (S) DH .273/.352/.406, 1.9 fWAR
Team Total: 30.0 fWAR

The good news is that Charlie Morton is no Dallas Keuchel or Justin Verlander.  The bad news is CC Sabathia is no Masahiro Tanaka or Luis Severino.  The fact that the Yankees are even in the ALCS is cool, but it would be even cooler if they won a game.

--Posted at 3:44 pm by SG / 213 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, October 14, 2017

Yankees.com: Yankees fall on walk-off into 0-2 ALCS hole

A legendary pitching performance by Justin Verlander, a memorable swing from Carlos Correa and a mad-dash sprint from Jose Altuve have the Astros two wins away from reaching the World Series presented by YouTube TV.
Correa hit a game-winning double into the right-center-field gap off Aroldis Chapman to score Altuve from first base and send the Astros to a 2-1 walk-off win over the Yankees in Game 2 of the American League Championship Series presented by Camping World on Saturday at Minute Maid Park.

These first two games have been very even, the Astros have just been a little bit better. These aren’t two games that make you think that the Yankees have no chance to win the series, but they’re certainly two really tough, one-run losses. Keuchel and Verlander were both excellent. It really is more of a case of tipping the hat to them than anything else.

--Posted at 10:56 pm by Brian Cronin / 52 Comments | - (0)



Yankees (91-71) @ Astros (101-61), Saturday, 10/14/2017, 04:08p ET

Yankees: Luis Severino (R): (193.1 IP, 2.98 ERA, 5.5 RA-9 WAR) vs. Astros: Justin Verlander (R): (34 IP, 1.06 ERA, 5.9 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
4. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
5. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
6. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
7. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .222/.365/.423, 3.0 fWAR
9. Chase Headley (S) DH .273/.352/.406, 1.9 fWAR
Team Total: 30.0 fWAR

Astros
1. George Springer (R) CF .283/.367/.522, 4.5 fWAR
2. Josh Reddick (L) RF .314/.363/.484, 3.5 fWAR
3. Jose Altuve (R) 2B .346/.410/.547, 7.5 fWAR
4. Carlos Correa (R) SS .315/.391/.550, 5.2 fWAR
5. Marwin Gonzalez (S) LF .303/.377/.530, 4.1 fWAR
6. Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B .299/.332/.486, 0.0 fWAR
7. Carlos Beltran (S) DH .231/.283/.383, -1.1 fWAR
8. Alex Bregman (R) 3B .284/.352/.475, 3.8 fWAR
9. Brian McCann (L) C .241/.323/.436, 1.6 fWAR
Team Total: 29.1 fWAR

Normally, I’d tell you that you can take all your fancy stats and throw them in the East River.  However, some stats are too powerful and meaningful to ignore.

Luis Severino had an ERA of 10.57 against the Astros and 2.66 against the rest of baseball.  He’s facing a pitcher who did not allow a single run to the Yankees this season.  What do you think is going to happen today?

--Posted at 12:01 pm by SG / 314 Comments | - (0)



2017 Cubs vs. Dodgers NLCS Postseason Odds

Since Discofever asked, here’s a quick overview of the NLCS teams and their projections.  It’s the National League, so I can’t pretend to be well-versed enough in either team to present much beyond what the data says so here it is.

First, the Cubs position players.

Player Pos PA proj avg/obp/slg Outs BR
Jon Jay LF 27.00 .277/.349/.366 17.58 3.05
Kris Bryant 3B 27.00 .284/.388/.528 16.52 4.54
Anthony Rizzo 1B 27.00 .282/.392/.536 16.42 4.62
Willson Contreras C 27.00 .268/.342/.455 17.77 3.69
Albert Almora CF 26.00 .269/.296/.393 18.30 2.69
Addison Russell SS 26.00 .248/.319/.430 17.71 3.19
Jason Heyward RF 25.00 .265/.340/.413 16.50 3.12
Javier Baez 2B 25.00 .258/.307/.446 17.33 3.14
Kyle Schwarber OF 14.12 .236/.334/.491 9.40 2.00
Ben Zobrist UT 15.00 .259/.351/.418 9.74 1.93
Alex Avila C 4.00 .230/.355/.394 2.58 0.47
Tommy La Stella IF 4.00 .270/.349/.393 2.60 0.47
Ian Happ C 4.00 .241/.312/.440 2.75 0.49
Leonys Martin OF 4.00 .244/.298/.367 2.81 0.40
Total 255.12 168.00 33.81

I should note here that I’m using outs based on 24 times seven games instead of 27 because of the arcane rules in this league that require every team have three automatic outs among their 27.  Then again, without that rule, we wouldn’t have the tactical excitement that only the double switch can bring.

Next up, the Dodgers.

Player Pos PA proj avg/obp/slg Outs BR
Chris Taylor CF 28.00 .268/.332/.422 18.70 3.50
Corey Seager SS 27.86 .285/.351/.476 18.08 4.01
Justin Turner 3B 27.00 .296/.376/.494 16.85 4.21
Cody Bellinger 1B 27.00 .248/.326/.499 18.20 3.87
Yasiel Puig RF 27.00 .277/.353/.492 17.47 4.02
Curtis Granderson LF 24.00 .234/.332/.455 16.03 3.19
Chase Utley 2B 21.00 .241/.313/.390 14.43 2.34
Austin Barnes C 16.00 .258/.343/.404 10.51 1.95
Logan Forsythe 2B 16.00 .250/.341/.401 10.54 1.94
Yasmani Grandal C 15.00 .239/.330/.453 10.05 1.99
Kike Hernandez OF 12.00 .231/.305/.397 8.34 1.29
Andre Ethier OF 11.00 .254/.328/.411 7.39 1.29
Kyle Farmer C 2.00 .300/.300/.350 1.40 0.18
Joc Pederson OF 0.00 .231/.345/.445 0.00 0.00
Adrian Gonzalez 1B 0.00 .242/.287/.355 0.00 0.00
Total 253.86 168.00 33.78

And now, the Cubs pitching staff (which is kind of discombulated at the moment).

Pitcher Role IP R
Jose Quintana SP 10.00 4.13
Jon Lester SP 8.00 3.55
Jake Arrieta SP 6.00 2.68
Kyle Hendricks SP 6.00 2.70
John Lackey SP 5.00 2.42
Wade Davis RP 4.00 1.37
Pedro Strop RP 4.00 1.53
Justin Wilson RP 4.00 1.67
Brian Duensing RP 3.00 1.30
Carl Edwards Jr. RP 3.00 1.20
Mike Montgomery RP 3.00 1.43
Total 56.00 23.97

Lastly, the Dodgers.

Pitcher Role IP R
Clayton Kershaw SP 12.00 3.86
Yu Darvish SP 12.00 5.16
Rich Hill SP 6.00 2.54
Alex Wood RP 5.00 1.99
Kenley Jansen RP 4.00 1.07
Brandon Morrow RP 4.00 1.73
Tony Watson RP 3.00 1.34
Tony Cingrani RP 3.00 1.46
Josh Fields RP 3.00 1.40
Pedro Baez RP 2.00 0.71
Kenta Maeda RP 1.00 0.41
Ross Stripling RP 1.00 0.45
Total 56.00 21.67

At one point in the year, the Dodgers were threatening the 1998 Yankees as the best team of all time.  Luckily for us, they went into a major slump and finished the year as a merely great team.  I don’t know if they’re better than Houston on a talent basis, but they are close enough to have an argument for it.  These projections and depth charts have them scoring 33.78 runs per game and allowing 21.67, which is a 70.8% winning percentage.  The Cubs are essentially the same offensively at 33.81 runs per game, but their pitching is a couple of runs worse. 

The Cubs are still a very good team, and can certainly win this series.  But the Dodgers should be favored, and using these numbers I’d put the odds for getting the chance to get beat by Houston at Dodgers 54.1%, Cubs 45.9%.

--Posted at 7:16 am by SG / 1 Comment | - (0)




Friday, October 13, 2017

Yankees.com: Tanaka solid, but Yanks stifled in LCS Game 1

Dallas Keuchel owned the moment and the Yankees in a way that only he can Friday night, throwing seven masterful innings to lead the Astros to a 2-1 victory in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series at Minute Maid Park.
Keuchel struck out 10—a postseason record by an Astros left-hander—and was backed by key contributions from longtime teammates Jose Altuve, who beat out an infield single and scored the first run in a two-run fourth, and Marwin Gonzalez, who threw out a runner at the plate to end the top of the fifth and preserve the shutout.

Quick aside, how does Camping World have enough money to buy the naming rights to the American League Championship Series? That’s kind of crazy.

Anyhow, it’s weird, I really don’t believe in just punting Game 1 of the ALCS, but at the same time, had the Yankees just thrown Sonny Gray tonight, they would have the pitching advantage in possibly three of the next four games (if Keuchel came back in Game 4, you could argue he’d be less effective on short rest). But that would be punting a game and that’s probably not a good idea, so the Yankees probably made the right move to go to their hottest pitcher. Tanaka just was slightly worse than Keuchel, just like what happened in 2015, when Tanaka was also slightly worse than Keuchel. Chad Green was also “wasted” in a loss, but, again, they had to use him to keep it close. It all just ended about as poorly as it could have ended.

Hopefully Severino pitches a great game on Saturday and hopefully Keuchel pulls a Tevor Bauer and is worse the next time he pitches.

--Posted at 11:47 pm by Brian Cronin / 11 Comments | - (0)



Yankees (91-71) @ Astros (101-61), Friday, 10/13/2017, 08:08p ET

Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka (R): (178.1 IP, 4.74 ERA, 1.7 RA-9 WAR) vs. Astros: Dallas Keuchel (L): (145.2 IP, 2.90 ERA, 4.5 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
6. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
7. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
8. Matt Holliday (R) DH .231/.316/.432, -0.1 fWAR
9. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .222/.365/.423, 3.0 fWAR
Team Total: 28.0 fWAR

Astros
1. George Springer (R) CF .283/.367/.522, 4.5 fWAR
2. Josh Reddick (L) RF .314/.363/.484, 3.5 fWAR
3. Jose Altuve (R) 2B .346/.410/.547, 7.5 fWAR
4. Carlos Correa (R) SS .315/.391/.550, 5.2 fWAR
5. Marwin Gonzalez (S) LF .303/.377/.530, 4.1 fWAR
6. Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B .299/.332/.486, 0.0 fWAR
7. Carlos Beltran (S) DH .231/.283/.383, -1.1 fWAR
8. Alex Bregman (R) 3B .284/.352/.475, 3.8 fWAR
9. Brian McCann (L) C .241/.323/.436, 1.6 fWAR
Team Total: 29.1 fWAR

Masahiro Tanaka’s worst start of the season was against the Astros on May 14 at Yankee Stadium.  Tanaka allowed eight earned runs in 1.2 innings, including four homers.  That game is actually worse than it appears because of how well he pitched at home (3.22 ERA) vs. on the road (6.48 ERA) this year.

It’s the only game that Tanaka pitched against Houston this year, so it’s the only data point we need.  We know that Tanaka is a 43.21729 ERA pitcher against Houston in Yankee Stadium.  We know he’s 2.012422 times worse on the road than he is at home.  Ergo, Tanaka against Houston in Houston is a 86.97143 ERA pitcher, which means he should allow about 16.09938 runs tonight if he can last 1.2 innings.

On the other hand, Dallas Keuchel has thrown 50.2 career innings against the Yankees and has allowed a grand total of seven earned runs.  In order for the Yankees to score as many runs against Keuchel as Tanaka is likely to give up tonight, they would have to face Keuchel for 116 innings.

If the Yankees can last into the 116th inning in tonight’s ALCS opener, they may have a chance to steal this one.  Otherwise, I have to say the advantage lies with Houston.

I wouldn’t even show up tonight if I were the Yankees.  I’d forfeit.  Concede the loss and rest the bullpen and hope you can get lucky tomorrow.

Go Yankees.

--Posted at 3:24 pm by SG / 190 Comments | - (0)



2017 Yankees vs. Astros ALCS Postseason Odds

It feels like forever since I’ve had the opportunity or interest to do one of these posts.  Actually, it’s been eight days but it feels longer for some reason.

Anyway, the Yankees are back in the ALCS for the first time in five years and while they are facing a team that is probably better than them anything can happen in the playoffs.  In fact, the Yankees got here by beating a team that was probably better than them, which seems only fair considering they lost the division to a team that was worse than them this year.  Anyhow, like the last time I did this I’m not using 2017 data only, I’m using the Fangraphs Depth Chart projections for the Yankees and Astros which appear to have been updated to include 2017.

This all comes down to trying to allocate playing time over seven games for the position players and pitchers.  We’ll assume 27 outs per game times seven games (189 outs) for both teams even though Houston won’t have to bat in the ninth in either of the first two games and the series is only going to go four games. For the Yankees it may look something like this.

Player Pos PA proj avg/obp/slg Outs BR
Brett Gardner LF 31.00 .260/.345/.409 20.31 3.88
Aaron Judge RF 31.00 .253/.363/.528 19.75 4.99
Gary Sanchez C 31.00 .268/.330/.512 20.77 4.62
Didi Gregorius SS 30.56 .273/.316/.440 20.90 3.78
Starlin Castro 2B 30.00 .278/.315/.435 20.55 3.62
Gregory Bird 1B 30.00 .239/.322/.464 20.34 3.99
Aaron Hicks OF 30.00 .251/.337/.419 19.89 3.86
Todd Frazier 3B 30.00 .235/.324/.456 20.28 3.93
Jacoby Ellsbury CF 14.00 .263/.332/.389 9.35 1.64
Chase Headley 1B 10.00 .258/.337/.398 6.63 1.19
Matt Holliday DH 8.00 .247/.333/.448 5.34 1.07
Ronald Torreyes IF 3.00 .276/.311/.371 2.07 0.31
Austin Romine C 2.00 .244/.290/.365 1.42 0.20
Tyler Wade IF 1.00 .229/.292/.321 0.71 0.06
Clint Frazier OF 1.00 .237/.298/.420 0.70 0.10
Total 282.56 189.00 37.23

I realize Wade and Frazier may not even be on the roster but 1 PA doesn’t change things that much.

When we do the same thing for Houston, we can see how much better they are than the Yankees.

Player Pos PA proj avg/obp/slg Outs BR
George Springer CF 32.00 .270/.362/.495 20.42 4.81
Josh Reddick RF 31.00 .283/.343/.465 20.37 4.30
Jose Altuve 2B 30.80 .323/.380/.498 19.10 4.99
Carlos Correa SS 30.00 .289/.368/.503 18.96 4.73
Marwin Gonzalez LF 30.00 .273/.327/.450 20.19 3.84
Alex Bregman 3B 30.00 .275/.341/.464 19.77 4.17
Yulieski Gurriel 1B 30.00 .282/.330/.470 20.10 4.09
Evan Gattis DH 30.00 .255/.308/.485 20.76 4.03
Brian McCann C 20.00 .240/.322/.433 13.56 2.49
Carlos Beltran DH 6.00 .256/.307/.435 4.16 0.72
Cameron Maybin OF 5.00 .252/.328/.385 3.36 0.58
Derek Fisher OF 5.00 .229/.308/.392 3.46 0.51
Tyler White IF 5.00 .249/.321/.426 3.40 0.58
Juan Centeno C 2.00 .249/.294/.346 1.41 0.13
Tony Kemp UT 0.00 .260/.322/.355 0.00 0.00
Total 286.80 189.00 39.99

Houston projects to be about 2.76 runs better than the Yankees over seven games which is a massive difference.  But SG, how can you say 2.76 runs is a massive difference?  It’s like one inning from Tyler Clippard?  Well, yeah, in absolute terms 2.76 runs is not much.  But pro-rate 2.76 runs over seven games to 162 games and you have an offense that is 63.8 runs better over a full season.  That’s fairly significant, no?

The theoretical good news may be that the Yankees have the edge in pitching, but that may not necessarily be true either.

Pitcher Role IP R
Masahiro Tanaka SP 10.00 4.70
Luis Severino SP 10.00 4.46
CC Sabathia SP 8.00 4.46
Sonny Gray RP 5.00 2.53
Aroldis Chapman RP 4.00 1.27
David Robertson RP 4.00 1.56
Dellin Betances RP 3.00 0.97
Chad Green RP 4.00 1.73
Tommy Kahnle RP 4.00 1.53
Adam Warren RP 2.00 0.97
Jordan Montgomery RP 2.00 1.10
Total 56.00 25.28

I’m assuming a fairly quick hook on the starters given the depth of the Yankee bullpen here.  In an ideal world, Masahiro Tanaka and Luis Severino go 7 innings in their starts and minimize the load on the bullpen but given the potency of Houston’s offense that’s not likely.

So how does that pitching compare with Houston?

Pitcher Role IP R
Dallas Keuchel SP 12.00 5.38
Justin Verlander SP 11.00 5.00
Charlie Morton SP 5.00 2.33
Brad Peacock SP 5.00 2.56
Ken Giles RP 5.00 1.84
Luke Gregerson RP 5.00 2.27
Chris Devenski RP 5.00 2.09
Lance McCullers RP 3.00 1.08
Francisco Liriano RP 2.00 0.97
Will Harris SP 2.00 0.83
Joe Musgrove RP 1.00 0.49
Total 56.00 24.84

Dallas Keuchel may be the key to this series.  The Yankees have faced him six times in the regular season over his career and he’s held them to a line of .190/.218/.234.  He’s got a 1.41 career regular season ERA against them in 44 innings.  Those numbers don’t even include the last time the Yankees faced him in the postseason.

The good news is that batter/pitcher stats are not generally meaningful and even if they were a lot of the Yankees that were there for those games have been replaced by different players.  The bad news is Keuchel is a damn good pitcher and a tough challenge and the Yankees may see him three times depending how the series shakes out.  Justin Verlander has been a boon for the Astros and there’s no need to delve into specifics with him.  The Yankees have had some success against him at times, but he’s also someone who can dominate when he’s on.

Anyway, the Yankees bullpen is probably deeper than Houston’s but they have a pretty comparable top three and their overall pitching staff actually projects slightly better than the Yankees.

In the postseason, the talent is concentrated.  These depth charts and projections give us a Yankee team that would project to win around 69% of their games against an Astros team that would project to win around 73%.  Change that to 68.7% and 73.3% to account for the one game home field advantage.  That gives you these odds for advancing to the World Series:

Houston: 54.6%
New York: 45.4%

--Posted at 10:19 am by SG / 28 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, October 12, 2017

Yankees.com: Didi drives Yanks to ALCS date with Astros

The Yankees believed they had the right blend of talent not only to force the American League Division Series back to Progressive Field, but to win it all. Having made good on that promise by knocking off the defending AL champion Indians, New York’s improbable and exhilarating run at a 28th World Series title will now run through Houston.

Didi Gregorius homered twice, CC Sabathia rolled back the clock with nine strikeouts before turning it over to the bullpen in the fifth inning and the Yankees completed their historic comeback from a daunting deficit, advancing past the Indians with a 5-2 victory in Game 5 of the ALDS on Wednesday night.

“For me to be here with these guys is just unbelievable,” Gregorius said. “This amazing, young team that we’ve got, everybody helps each other out here. Everybody wants each other to be good. I think that’s the motto since I got here.”

Well, that was okay.

Remember how shitty 2004 was? I don’t mean to bring up a terrible memory, but I was thinking about it because, at the time, despite the Yankees being up 3-0, I really hated the pitching match-ups for the next four games and I remember telling people throughout the Boston comeback that I was thinking that the Sox had a real chance the whole time. Similarly, the Yankees’ pitching advantages in Games 3 and 4 made this comeback look possible. Even before Game 2, I recall noting, “Okay, so they’re going to lose tonight, but they really should win Games 3 and 4 and then who knows?” Of course, they should have won Game 2. Speaking of Game 2, Joe Girardi seriously looked happier with this win than he did when they won the World Series in 2009, that’s how pumped he was that his team got his back after the big Game 2 blunder. Good for him.

While Didi was the main hero in Game 5, it is definitely worth noting that three of the key contributors in this game - CC Sabathia, David Robertson and Brett Gardner - all played for the Yankees in the 2009 World Series. That’s pretty awesome.

Houston will be a tough matchup, but the Yankees are now a tough matchup themselves for everyone else, so it should be a fun series.

Let’s hope that the Yankees keep the good times rolling as they head into Houston.

--Posted at 4:43 am by Brian Cronin / 95 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Yankees (91-71) @ Indians (102-60), Wednesday, 10/11/2017, 08:08p ET

Yankees: CC Sabathia (L): (148.2 IP, 3.69 ERA, 3.4 RA-9 WAR) vs. Indians: Corey Kluber (R): (203.2 IP, 2.25 ERA, 8.5 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
4. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
5. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
6. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
7. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
8. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) DH .264/.348/.402, 1.6 fWAR
9. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .222/.365/.423, 3.0 fWAR
Team Total: 29.7 fWAR

Indians
1. Francisco Lindor (S) SS .273/.337/.505, 5.9 fWAR
2. Jason Kipnis (L) CF .232/.291/.414, 0.7 fWAR
3. Jose Ramirez (S) 2B .318/.374/.583, 6.6 fWAR
4. Edwin Encarnacion (R) DH .258/.377/.504, 2.5 fWAR
5. Carlos Santana (S) 1B .259/.363/.455, 3.0 fWAR
6. Austin Jackson (R) LF .318/.387/.482, 1.8 fWAR
7. Jay Bruce (L) RF .248/.331/.477, 2.7 fWAR
8. Roberto Perez (R) C .207/.291/.373, 0.5 fWAR
9. Giovanny Urshela (R) 3B .224/.262/.288, -0.5 fWAR
Team Total: 23.2 fWAR

This is probably the last game of the Yankees’ season.  It was mostly fun while it lasted.

--Posted at 4:06 pm by SG / 447 Comments | - (0)



NY Post: Which Kluber will Yankees see? Stats offer conflicting stories

CLEVELAND — The Yankees got to Cleveland ace Corey Kluber in Game 2 for six runs in just 2 ²/₃ innings, knocking the Cy Young candidate out of the game.

That’s the good news.

The bad news is the Yankees went on to lose that game, with Joe Girardi and the bullpen managing to blow a five-run lead.

The other dose of bad news for the Yankees? Kluber rarely has two rough outings in a row.

The only time he surrendered six runs during the regular season, April 15 against the Tigers, he came back to shut out the White Sox in his next outing.

“We’ve seen him extremely sharp and I think we caught him on a night that he wasn’t sharp,” Girardi said. “So you hope you catch him on another night that he’s not sharp.’’

On those nights when Kluber was sharp against the Yankees, they had little chance.

The right-hander held them to a run on three hits in a complete-game victory Aug. 3, when he struck out 11, and then allowed just two runs on three hits in eight innings against them Aug. 28.

Before his Game 2 fiasco, Kluber hadn’t given up more than two runs in an outing since Aug. 13.

Corey Kluber is probably the best pitcher in the American League.  He is miles better than CC Sabathia.  If you believe the Fangraphs depth chart projections, there is almost no difference between the Yankees’ lineup and Cleveland’s lineup.

Player Pos PA proj avg/obp/slg Outs BR
Brett Gardner LF 5.00 .260/.345/.409 3.28 0.63
Aaron Judge RF 5.00 .253/.363/.528 3.19 0.80
Gary Sanchez C 5.00 .268/.330/.512 3.35 0.75
Didi Gregorius SS 5.00 .273/.316/.440 3.42 0.62
Starlin Castro 2B 4.45 .278/.315/.435 3.05 0.54
Gregory Bird 1B 4.00 .239/.322/.464 2.71 0.53
Todd Frazier 3B 4.00 .235/.324/.456 2.70 0.52
Chase Headley DH 4.00 .258/.337/.398 2.65 0.47
Aaron Hicks CF 4.00 .251/.337/.419 2.65 0.51
Total 40.45 27.00 5.38
Player Pos PA proj avg/obp/slg Outs BR
Francisco Lindor SS 5.00 .289/.349/.478 3.26 0.72
Jason Kipnis CF 5.00 .261/.330/.427 3.35 0.63
Jose Ramirez 2B 5.00 .298/.354/.489 3.23 0.75
Edwin Encarnacion DH 5.00 .261/.367/.513 3.17 0.80
Jay Bruce RF 4.57 .258/.324/.493 3.09 0.65
Carlos Santana 1B 4.00 .258/.372/.470 2.51 0.60
Lonnie Chisenhall LF 4.00 .270/.328/.445 2.69 0.52
Yan Gomes C 4.00 .236/.292/.413 2.83 0.44
Giovanny Urshela 3B 4.00 .246/.281/.357 2.88 0.35
Total 40.57 27.00 5.46

I don’t have actual lineups for tonight, but this should be fairly close.  The Indians are projected to be about 0.08 runs better than the Yankees offensively.  The difference tonight is in the expected performance of the pitching.

Pitcher Role IP R
CC Sabathia SP 5.00 2.79
Chad Green RP 1.00 0.43
David Robertson RP 2.00 0.78
Aroldis Chapman RP 1.00 0.32
Total 9.00 4.32
Pitcher Role IP R
Corey Kluber SP 6.00 2.23
Andrew Miller RP 2.00 0.52
Cody Allen RP 1.00 0.39
Total 9.00 3.14

That translates to a win probability for Cleveland of 67.2% vs. the Yankees 32.8%.  I probably would have started Sonny Gray over Sabathia tonight, but the difference is only about 0.25 runs over five innings and about a 4% change in Yankee win probability.  It doesn’t change the fact that this is one of the largest mismatches in a winner-take-all series finale game ever, and it’s extremely likely the Yankees are going home after tonight.

Frankly, I’m not sure they should even bother playing.

--Posted at 11:54 am by SG / 32 Comments | - (0)




Monday, October 9, 2017

Yankees.com: Yanks bank early runs to force G5 with Tribe

Luis Severino struck out nine over seven strong innings, Aaron Judge mashed a two-run double and Gary Sanchez homered as the Yankees rolled to a 7-3 win over the Indians on Monday night in Game 4 of the American League Division Series.
The win evened the best-of-five series at 2-2, forcing a winner-take-all Game 5 on Wednesday night at Progressive Field in Cleveland.

Even though the Yankees kicked Kluber’s ass in Game 2, they’re unlikely to do that again, so they’ll need CC Sabathia to revisit some of his Game 5 magic from the 2012 ALDS to get to the ALCS this year. I suspect that we’ll also see Chad Green coming in VERY early on, at the slightest sign of trouble from CC. Then expect multiple innings for Kahnle, D-Rob and Chapman. Maybe an inning from Gray, as well.

Going to Game 5 is better than not going to Game 5, so let’s hope that the Yankees can make it to the ALCS (they’ve already made it father than the Red Sox, which is always nice).

--Posted at 10:23 pm by Brian Cronin / 134 Comments | - (0)



Indians (102-60) @ Yankees (91-71), Monday, 10/9/2017, 07:00p ET

Indians: Trevor Bauer (R): (176.1 IP, 4.19 ERA, 3.3 RA-9 WAR) vs. Yankees: Luis Severino (R): (193.1 IP, 2.98 ERA, 5.5 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Indians
1. Francisco Lindor (S) SS .273/.337/.505, 5.9 fWAR
2. Jason Kipnis (L) CF .232/.291/.414, 0.7 fWAR
3. Jose Ramirez (S) 2B .318/.374/.583, 6.6 fWAR
4. Jay Bruce (L) RF .248/.331/.477, 2.7 fWAR
5. Carlos Santana (S) 1B .259/.363/.455, 3.0 fWAR
6. Michael Brantley (L) DH .299/.357/.444, 1.6 fWAR
7. Lonnie Chisenhall (L) LF .288/.360/.521, 1.4 fWAR
8. Roberto Perez (R) C .207/.291/.373, 0.5 fWAR
9. Giovanny Urshela (R) 3B .224/.262/.288, -0.5 fWAR
Team Total: 21.9 fWAR

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
4. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
5. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, 0.0 fWAR
6. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
7. Chase Headley (S) DH .273/.352/.406, 1.9 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .222/.365/.423, 3.0 fWAR
9. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
Team Total: 30.4 fWAR

This is probably the last game of the Yankees’ season.  It was mostly fun while it lasted.

--Posted at 3:47 pm by SG / 336 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Big Bird! Solo homer, 5-out save lift Yankees

With the season on the line, Masahiro Tanaka delivered what he called his most important win as a Major Leaguer and Greg Bird cracked a majestic home run off Andrew Miller, extending the Yankees’ hopes for another day with a 1-0 victory over the Indians in Sunday’s Game 3 of the American League Division Series presented by Doosan.

Bird’s second homer of the series, a towering drive into the second deck in right field, provided some desperately needed support behind Tanaka’s dominant outing. With the Indians flailing regularly at his lethal splitter, Tanaka blanked Cleveland’s formidable offense on three hits through seven frames, issuing one walk with seven strikeouts over a 92-pitch effort.

Man, Tanaka is a riddle wrapped up in a mystery, hidden in an enigma, but he certainly came through big time tonight.

Greg Bird supplied the big home run, Aaron Judge took a home run away and Aroldis Chapman had a huge five-out save.

Now the Yankees just have to beat Trevor Bauer on short rest. It could happen!

Let’s hope that the Yankees get to take their chances with Corey Kluber in Game 5.

--Posted at 12:08 am by Brian Cronin / 62 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, October 8, 2017

Indians (102-60) @ Yankees (91-71), Sunday, 10/8/2017, 07:30p ET

Indians: Carlos Carrasco (R): (200 IP, 3.29 ERA, 6.1 RA-9 WAR) vs. Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka (R): NR

Lineups
Indians
1. Francisco Lindor (S) SS .273/.337/.505, 5.9 fWAR
2. Jason Kipnis (L) CF .232/.291/.414, 0.7 fWAR
3. Jose Ramirez (S) 2B .318/.374/.583, 6.6 fWAR
4. Jay Bruce (L) RF .248/.331/.477, 2.7 fWAR
5. Carlos Santana (S) 1B .259/.363/.455, 3.0 fWAR
6. Austin Jackson (R) LF .318/.387/.482, 1.8 fWAR
7. Michael Brantley (L) DH .299/.357/.444, 1.6 fWAR
8. Roberto Perez (R) C .207/.291/.373, 0.5 fWAR
9. Giovanny Urshela (R) 3B .224/.262/.288, -0.5 fWAR
Team Total: 22.3 fWAR

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
6. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
7. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .222/.365/.423, 3.0 fWAR
8. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) DH .264/.348/.402, 1.6 fWAR
9. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
Team Total: 29.7 fWAR

This is probably the last game of the Yankees’ season.  It was mostly fun while it lasted.

--Posted at 3:26 pm by SG / 220 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, October 7, 2017

NY Times: Joe Girardi, Upon Review, Offers a Rare Mea Culpa: ‘I Screwed Up’

Given a night of restless sleep — and after perhaps letting an excoriation from the news media (including from commentators on the YES Network, which is partly owned by the Yankees) sink in — Girardi ventured to the Bronx on Saturday, disassembled his standard defensive armor and offered up something unusual: a mea culpa.

“I screwed up,” he said.

“In hindsight, yeah,” he added. “I wish I would have challenged it.”

“Again, I screwed up,” he went on. “And it’s hard. It’s a hard day for me.”

In his decade as manager of the Yankees, Girardi has probably offered fewer such apologies than the number of pitching changes he made on Friday night. Typically, questions to him that call for self-reflection are dealt with dismissively. On Saturday, he responded with something approaching humility.

Yeah Joe, you really did screw up.  Frankly, this is arguably bad enough to justify not bringing Girardi back as manager next year.  I suppose that could change if the Yankees somehow do the unthinkable and come back to win this series.  But let’s put this into perspective.  If the Yankees had won last night, they’d have been around 49% to advance to the ALCS.  With yesterday’s loss, their odds sit around 12%.

It wasn’t Girardi’s only mistake last night, but it was the biggest one, and it probably ended the Yankees’ season.

--Posted at 7:31 pm by SG / 56 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Yanks can’t hang on, fall in 13th against Tribe

The Yankees knocked out American League Cy Young Award candidate Corey Kluber early. The Indians lost slugger Edwin Encarnacion to a right ankle injury in the first inning. Yet, the Tribe still found a way. Overcoming obstacles has become kind of a trademark for this club.
Yan Gomes’ RBI single to left field in the 13th inning scored Austin Jackson as the Indians rallied for a thrilling 9-8 walk-off win to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the best-of-five AL Division Series presented by Doosan. Game 3 is set for Sunday at 7:30 p.m. ET on FS1 at Yankee Stadium.

Obviously, that was a brutal loss. It ranks up there with some of the worst Yankee postseason losses of the last…what…fifty years or so? They missed the playoffs from 1967-1975. 1976, they just outright beaten by the Reds. This was worse than the Midgies game. This was worse than the Chuck Knoblauch game. This was worth than Sandy Alomar Jr. hitting the homer off of Mo.  This wasn’t as bad as Games 4 and 5 against the Dodgers in 1981, Games 4 and 5 in Fenway in 2004 and it wasn’t as bad as Game 7 against Arizona in 2001, but it was a really, really bad loss (worse than Game 5 against the Mariners in 1995? Debatable. Game 3 against the Royals in 1980? Probably.).

The big problem in the game, of course, took place in the sixth inning when the umpire ruled that Lonnie Chisenhall was hit by a pitch when he really wasn’t. Yankee replay guy, Brett Webber, told Joe Girardi not to challenge the play and Girardi, as always, followed Webber’s lead. Webber, though, only had the basic replay to base his opinion on. By the time that the full, slow motion replay had been released, it was too late, as the next batter was already up. Chase Headley (who thought that the ball didn’t hit Chisenhall) remarked:

“Now everybody is like, ‘We should have done something different,’ but in the heat of the moment, those types of things can happen,” Headley said. “I think when you get word that the call was right, why would you challenge it? That’s how I look at it. I think our guy does as good a job as anyone has in the league. I think Joe trusts him. Unfortunately, it just happened at a really bad time.”

Webber’s whole job is to say “challenge or don’t challenge” and he said “don’t challenge” so Girardi didn’t challenge. Girardi can make up whatever other nonsense reasons he wants (“I didn’t want to mess up Chad Green’s rhythm” - come on, dude, that makes no sense), but it’s plain as day - he has a guy whose job it is to say whether to challenge things and they guy said “don’t challenge.” You can certainly knock Girardi for not overruling his challenge guy, but, again, that’s how they do it every game and that’s specifically what the Yankees pay this guy to do and he’s been acclaimed as one of the best replay guys that there is. But obviously he was wrong this time. And it cost the Yankees dearly, as the next batter hit a grand slam (the first home run allowed by Chad Green since July 27th! Just the fifth home run he’s allowed all year)..

Of course, the Yankees were still leading even after the grand slam, but David Robertson gave up a game-tying home run in the 8th inning and at that point, it was really only a matter of time before the Indians eventually pushed a run across. It took until the 13th inning, but it happened.

Now the Yankees have to win both games in New York just to have a CHANCE at facing off against probably Trevor Bauer again. Let’s hope that they get to that point.

EDITED TO ADD: Apparently Aroldis Chapman liked a comment hoping that Girardi doesn’t return next year. If that was someone other than Aroldis Chapman, I might lend it some weight, but it’s Aroldis Chapman, so I don’t.

--Posted at 2:13 am by Brian Cronin / 54 Comments | - (0)




Friday, October 6, 2017

Yankees (91-71) @ Indians (102-60), Thursday, 10/5/2017, 05:00pm ET

Yankees: CC Sabathia (L)  vs. Indians: Corey Kluber
Lineups
Yankees
1. (R) Brett Gardner (L) LF
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B
6. Greg Bird (L) 1B
7. Aaron Hicks (S) CF
8. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) DH
9. Todd Frazier (R) 3B

Cleveland
1. Francisco Lindor (S) SS
2. Jason Kipnis (L) CF
3. Jose Ramirez (S) 2B
4. Edwin Encarnacion (R) DH
5. Carlos Santana (S) 1B
6. Jay Bruce (L) RF
7. Austin Jackson (R) LF
8. Yan Gomes (R) C
9. Giovanny Urshela (R) 3B

Yankee win probability: -100%

--Posted at 2:57 pm by SG / 304 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Yanks overpowered by Tribe in ALDS opener

The Yankees found out what they are up against on Thursday night, and the Indians showed precisely why they are no longer the underdogs who reached the World Series a year ago.

Behind an overpowering outing by Trevor Bauer and some offensive heroics from Jay Bruce, Cleveland took Game 1 of the American League Division Series presented by Doosan with a 4-0 victory at a loud and raucous Progressive Field. It marked the first step in the Indians’ quest to not only win consecutive AL pennants, but to finish what they could not last fall: Bring home their first World Series title since 1948.

I thought it was over-thinking things to start Bauer in Game 1 just because of his past success against the Yankees, but it obviously worked out beautifully for the Indians, as Bauer once again dominated the Yankees. They cannot hit this guy. It’s kind of nuts. Honestly, though, it opens up an interesting question. Let’s say that the Yankees win their two games at home (because they sure as heck aren’t winning Game 2), then who does Cleveland send out for Game 5? Bauer might actually be the better choice than Kluber at this point, as the Yankees have had much more success against Kluber this year than Bauer, and they haven’t had any real success against Kluber at all!

I was not and I am not a fan of starting CC in Game 2, but at least it does set up a possible scenario where the Yankees would have the pitching advantage in the next two games (Tanaka vs. Carrasco and Severino vs. Tomlin). So that’s something.

Anyhow, last night sucked and tonight will probably suck, as well. But at least the Indians are legitimately a really good team. It’s not like they’re getting dominated by, like, the Twins. And at least they weren’t no-hit.

--Posted at 6:49 am by Brian Cronin / 31 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, October 5, 2017

Yankees (91-71) @ Indians (102-60), Thursday, 10/5/2017, 07:30p ET

Yankees: Sonny Gray (R): (65.1 IP, 3.72 ERA, 2.6 RA-9 WAR) vs. Indians: Trevor Bauer (R): (176.1 IP, 4.19 ERA, 3.3 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
6. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
7. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .222/.365/.423, 3.0 fWAR
8. Chase Headley (S) DH .273/.352/.406, 1.9 fWAR
9. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
Team Total: 30.0 fWAR

Indians
1. Francisco Lindor (S) SS .273/.337/.505, 5.9 fWAR
2. Jason Kipnis (L) CF .232/.291/.414, 0.7 fWAR
3. Jose Ramirez (S) 2B .318/.374/.583, 6.6 fWAR
4. Edwin Encarnacion (R) DH .258/.377/.504, 2.5 fWAR
5. Jay Bruce (L) RF .248/.331/.477, 2.7 fWAR
6. Carlos Santana (S) 1B .259/.363/.455, 3.0 fWAR
7. Lonnie Chisenhall (L) LF .288/.360/.521, 1.4 fWAR
8. Roberto Perez (R) C .207/.291/.373, 0.5 fWAR
9. Giovanny Urshela (R) 3B .224/.262/.288, -0.5 fWAR
Team Total: 22.8 fWAR

Yankee win probability: 42.3%

Despite a sparkling 2.08 ERA, Sonny Gray has never won a postseason game despite multiple (two) chances.  Cleveland won 22 straight game at one point, which apparently makes them the best team in the history of baseball or something.  So I don’t expect Mr. Gray to end that streak tonight.  But perhaps the Yankees can shock the world and not get swept in this series.  I at least hope they can force a Game Four and get that second ALDS home game gate revenue.

I’m guessing we’ll not see Chad Green or David Robertson tonight.  We could see Tommy Kahnle, although that’s iffy.  Even if by some miracle Gray keeps the Yankees close, do we trust some combination of Adam Warren and Dellin Betances to get the game into the late innings while keeping it close?  I, for one, do not.

But who knows.

Go Yankees.

--Posted at 2:58 pm by SG / 103 Comments | - (0)



2017 Yankees vs. Indians ALDS Postseason Odds

It feels like forever since I’ve had the opportunity or interest to do one of these posts, but the Yankees are back in the playoffs and while they are facing a team that is probably better than them anything can happen in the playoffs.

So how do I go through figuring out the Yankees’ chances for advancing into the ALDS?  I don’t use only 2017 statistics since they may be misleading due to sample size.  I didn’t have time to re-run CAIRO to incorporate 2017 so I’m just using the Fangraphs Depth Chart projections for the Yankees and Indians which appear to have been updated to include 2017.

First thing I try to do is allocate playing time over five games for the position players.  Assuming 27 outs per game times five games, for the Yankees it may look something like this.

 Player  Pos  PA  proj avg/obp/slg  Outs  BR
 Brett Gardner LF 22.00   .260/.345/.409 14.41   2.76 
 Aaron Judge RF 22.00   .253/.363/.528 14.01   3.54 
 Gary Sanchez C 22.00   .268/.330/.512 14.74   3.28 
 Didi Gregorius SS 22.00   .273/.316/.440 15.05   2.72 
 Starlin Castro 2B 22.00   .278/.315/.435 15.07   2.66 
 Gregory Bird 1B 20.00   .239/.322/.464 13.56   2.66 
 Todd Frazier 3B 20.00   .235/.324/.456 13.52   2.62 
 Aaron Hicks OF 18.00   .251/.337/.419 11.93   2.31 
 Jacoby Ellsbury CF 13.00   .263/.332/.389 8.68   1.53 
 Chase Headley 1B 8.00   .258/.337/.398 5.30   0.95 
 Matt Holliday DH 8.00   .247/.333/.448 5.34   1.07 
 Ronald Torreyes IF 2.85   .276/.311/.371 1.96   0.29 
 Austin Romine C 2.00   .244/.290/.365 1.42   0.20 
 Total  201.85    135.00  26.58 

BR: Linear weights batting runs based on estimated plate appearances.

It’s hard to know exactly how much people will play.  In an ideal scenario, Austin Romine doesn’t bat once.  But I tried to throw in some PA for the bench guys anyway.  This allocation of playing time would have the Yankees projected to score around 27 runs over five games.

Let’s do the same for Cleveland.

 Player  Pos PA  proj avg/obp/slg  Outs BR
 Francisco Lindor SS 23.00   .289/.349/.478 14.97   3.32 
 Jason Kipnis CF 22.00   .261/.330/.427 14.74   2.79 
 Jose Ramirez 2B 22.00   .298/.354/.489 14.21   3.32 
 Edwin Encarnacion DH 22.00   .261/.367/.513 13.93   3.50 
 Jay Bruce OF 21.00   .258/.324/.493 14.20   2.97 
 Carlos Santana 1B 21.00   .258/.372/.470 13.19   3.15 
 Giovanny Urshela 3B 19.00   .246/.281/.357 13.66   1.68 
 Yan Gomes C 17.00   .236/.292/.413 12.04   1.87 
 Michael Brantley OF 15.00   .295/.358/.452 9.63   1.81 
 Austin Jackson OF 6.01   .275/.336/.410 3.99   0.74 
 Lonnie Chisenhall OF 5.00   .270/.328/.445 3.36   0.65 
 Greg Allen OF 5.00   .241/.308/.335 3.46   0.52 
 Erik Gonzalez UT 3.00   .255/.272/.418 2.18   0.30 
 Francisco Mejia C 2.00   .235/.279/.373 1.44   0.19 
 Total  203.01    135.00  26.80 

I know less about how Cleveland will allocate playing time than the Yankees, so there’s certainly a potential divergence between this and reality.  But interestingly, this version of the Indians position players actually projects to be slightly better offensively than the Yankees.  The difference is very small and well within the margin of error though.

Given two reasonably equivalent offenses, the pitching will likely tell the tale of this series.  That’s good for Cleveland, less so for the Yankees.

Let’s look at the 12 pitchers the Yankees are taking.

 Pitcher  Role  IP  R
 Sonny Gray SP 10.00   5.07 
 CC Sabathia SP 5.00   2.79 
 Masahiro Tanaka SP 5.00   2.35 
 Luis Severino RP 5.00   2.23 
 Chad Green RP 3.00   1.30 
 Dellin Betances RP 3.00   0.97 
 Aroldis Chapman RP 3.00   0.95 
 David Robertson RP 3.00   1.17 
 Tommy Kahnle RP 3.00   1.15 
 Adam Warren RP 2.00   0.97 
 Jordan Montgomery RP 2.00   1.10 
 Jaime Garcia RP 1.00   0.53 
 Total  45.00   20.04 

I’m as surprised as anyone that CC Sabathia’s been tabbed to start Game 2.  He’ll be on a short leash, but opposing Corey Kluber even one run may be too much for the Yankees to overcome.  But anyway, the assumption here is Girardi won’t push any of his starters past five innings. 

I realize that 12 pitchers seems like overkill, but in this instance it’s defensible.  The Yankees are likely going to be without Chad Green and David Robertson in Game 1, so adding a couple of arms to the mix is a necessity.  Adding Montgomery and Garcia makes sense since they can give the team multiple innings if needed, but could also be useful in a spot where you want to face a lefty.

So 45 innings with these projections gives us 20 runs allowed for the Yankees over five games.

Here’s my version Cleveland’s pitching chart.

 Pitcher  Role IP  R
 Corey Kluber SP 12.00   4.46 
 Trevor Bauer SP 5.00   2.53 
 Carlos Carrasco SP 5.00   2.02 
 Josh Tomlin SP 4.00   2.22 
 Danny Salazar RP 4.00   1.66 
 Cody Allen SP 3.00   1.18 
 Andrew Miller RP 3.00   0.78 
 Bryan Shaw SP 3.00   1.25 
 Joe Smith RP 2.00   0.76 
 Tyler Olson SP 2.00   1.01 
 Mike Clevinger RP 2.00   0.95 
 Total  45.00   18.83 

Even though Trevor Bauer will start Game 1, I’m assuming he won’t be asked to pitch twice in this series.  The only pitcher likely to start twice would be Kluber.  Again, you may quibble with how the innings are allocated here, but it’s a rough estimate.

So we have a Yankee team that is estimated to score 26.58 runs and allow 20.04.  That translates to about a .631 Pythagenpat winning percentage, equivalent to a 102 win team over a full season.  They’re facing a Cleveland team that is estimated to score 26.80 runs and allow 18.83, which translates to a .661 Pythagenpat and 107 wins over a full season.  So what happens when a 102 win team faces a 107 win team that has home field advantage in a five game series?

Cleveland: 57.74%
Yankees: 42.26%

--Posted at 11:25 am by SG / 27 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Gray eager for G1 start in ALDS against Tribe

The first day Sonny Gray stepped into the Yankees’ clubhouse, he could feel it. The expectation of getting to the postseason with this group and the right-hander being an important part of it.

“My first day in New York, I got that vibe,” said Gray, who was tabbed on Wednesday to get the ball for Game 1 of the American League Division Series presented by Doosan tonight at Progressive Field. “And now, we’re here, and we’re ready to go.”

Gray, the Yankees’ big acquisition at the non-waiver Trade Deadline, will square off against Tribe righty Trevor Bauer in the opener of the best-of-five set.

Yanks left-hander CC Sabathia will start Game 2 against Tribe ace Corey Kluber. Masahiro Tanaka will pitch Game 3 in New York against Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco, and Yankees manager Joe Girardi said the plan is for AL Wild Card Game starter Luis Severino to pitch Game 4, if necessary.

It really seems like Girardi has just decided that he has more faith in CC against the Indians than Severino. I think he’s off base there, but I will say that A. CC has been pitching well and B. CC obviously has an excellent history in the postseason (remember how nails he was in 2012?), so I guess I can understand the temptation. I would have still pitched Severino in Game 2, but whatever.

Tanaka in Game 3 makes sense, as he pitches a lot better at Yankee Stadium for whatever reason. Severino in Game 4 (if necessary) is interesting, as it means that either Gray or CC could pitch Game 5, depending on how they do in Games 1 and 2.

I like Sonny Gray a lot, but he sure isn’t the sort of dominant pitcher you’d like to have pitching Game 1. Of course, if Bauer continues to pitch as how he has pitched against the Yankees this season, Jaime Garcia could be the opposing starter, for all the difference that it would make. 

--Posted at 9:49 am by Brian Cronin / 12 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, October 3, 2017

Yankees.com: Yanks outslug Twins, will face Tribe in ALDS

The “Baby Bombers” punched their ticket for a showdown with the Indians in the American League Division Series presented by Doosan, with Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner and Aaron Judge all homering to overcome Luis Severino’s first-inning exit, leading the Yankees to an 8-4 victory over the Twins on Tuesday in the AL Wild Card Game at Yankee Stadium.

I know they only have time for a quick blurb, but even a quick blurb that doesn’t discuss the HEROIC performance by Chad Green and David Robertson tonight is bonkers to me.

Green entered with 1 out in the FIRST INNING and the Yankees down 3-0, with runners on second and third (I would have pulled Severino before that point even, honestly). Green then struck out the next two batters to keep the score at 3-0. The Yankees then tied it on a home run by Didi in the bottom of the first. Green went further than he normally goes and he clearly tired towards the end, loading the bases with one out in the third. David Robertson entered and got a run-scoring groundout. That would be the ONLY RUN that the Yankee bullpen allowed! Robertson then struck out the next batter and continue to pitch a stunning three and one third innings, the longest outing that Robertson had ever had in his career! And amazingly enough, when he left the game in the sixth inning after a two out walk brought the tying run to the plate in the person of Joe Mauer, I thought Robertson’s pitches still looked good!! Tommy Kahnle came in and gave up some solid contact to Mauer, but it was an out.

The Yankees then added one insurance run and Kahnle and Aroldis Chapman pitched the rest of the way. Yes, the Yankees’ starter only pitched a third of an inning and the Yankees not only won, they only used four relievers to do so!

The top of the lineup was on fire tonight, with Aaron Judge and Brett Gardner also homering.

The Yankees take on the Indians in Cleveland starting on Thursday, but what’s interesting is that Cleveland isn’t using their best pitcher in Game 1, but rather going Trevor Bauer #1. Bauer has dominated the Yankees twice this season, but it’s still a bit of a surprise.

Wow…what a win. What a freakin’ win.

Good luck to the Yankees in the ALDS! Now, we have a whole day to just ENJOY this.

--Posted at 11:39 pm by Brian Cronin / 121 Comments | - (0)



Twins (85-77) @ Yankees (91-71), AL Wild Card Game, Tuesday, 10/3/2017, 08:05p ET

Twins: Ervin Santana (R): (211.1 IP, 3.28 ERA, 5.6 RA-9 WAR) vs. Yankees: Luis Severino (R): (193.1 IP, 2.98 ERA, 5.5 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Twins
1. Brian Dozier (R) 2B .269/.357/.496, 4.9 fWAR
2. Joe Mauer (L) 1B .305/.384/.417, 2.3 fWAR
3. Jorge Polanco (S) SS .256/.313/.410, 1.6 fWAR
4. Eddie Rosario (L) LF .290/.328/.507, 2.5 fWAR
5. Eduardo Escobar (S) 3B .254/.309/.449, 1.6 fWAR
6. Max Kepler (L) RF .243/.312/.425, 1.2 fWAR
7. Byron Buxton (R) CF .253/.314/.413, 3.5 fWAR
8. Jason Castro (L) C .242/.333/.388, 1.6 fWAR
9. Robbie Grossman (S) DH .246/.361/.380, 0.5 fWAR
Team Total: 19.7 fWAR

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
6. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
7. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
8. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) DH .264/.348/.402, 1.6 fWAR
9. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .222/.365/.423, 3.0 fWAR
Team Total: 29.7 fWAR

As good as Luis Severino was this year, Ervin Santana was probably just as valuable.  I calculated the Yankees’ win probability using Fangraphs’ depth chart projections with tonight’s lineups and pitchers and got something along the lines of the Yankees at 68%.

The Yankees should win this game.  But there’s a fair chance they won’t.  The Twins are a decent team, especially tonight with their best pitcher going and their #2 starter waiting to pitch in relief if needed.

If you would have told me before the season the Yankees would win 91 games and be here tonight, I would a) not have believed you b) signed up for it in a heartbeat.  However, now I’d like to see more than that.

Go Yankees.

--Posted at 5:23 pm by SG / 404 Comments | - (0)



NJ.com: Inside Yankees’ plan to beat Twins’ Ervin Santana in AL Wild Card

NEW YORK — Take pitches. Get ahead. Don’t bite on the sliders on the corners. When he throws a fastball, make him pay.
That’s essentially what the Yankees said would be the key to defeating formidable Twins starting pitcher Ervin Santana in the American League Wild Card Game on Tuesday at Yankee Stadium.

Santana, 34, had one of his best seasons in 2017. Making his second All-Star Game, the right-hander went 16-8 with a 3.28 ERA in 33 starts.
And Minnesota will probably lean on him heavily. While Yankees ace Luis Severino might have a short leash due to his club’s dominant bullpen — the Yankees aren’t going to watch Severino work out of trouble when they can turn to Chad Green in the fifth inning — Santana won’t have the same fortune.

It really stinks that the Yankees’ season is going to come down to what is essentially a coin flip.  Ervin Santana could very easily out-pitch Luis Severino tonight, and that would most likely end the Yankees’ season.

Then again, the winner of this game just gets the pleasure of getting swept by the Indians in the ALDS, so I’m not sure I care that much if the Yankees do lose tonight.

--Posted at 8:40 am by SG / 71 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Date expectations: Twins, Yanks flout predictions

The atmosphere in the clubhouse Monday was loose. After all, when the season began, nobody expected this team to be preparing for a postseason game in the early days of October.

The roster, loaded with young, inexperienced talent, entered the season at least a year or two away from being a contender of any sort. Yes, there were a few veterans that had played into the season’s seventh month before, but the rebuilding plan was in full effect, allowing only the most pie-in-the-sky fans to believe that 2017 could be a special season.
We’re talking, of course, about the Yankees.
We’re also talking about the Twins, who will face New York in tonight’s American League Wild Card Game.

Half of the 10 clubs that qualified for this year’s postseason were not playoff teams a year ago, with the Twins (103 losses), D-backs (93 losses) and Rockies (87 losses) making the biggest jumps.

But as remarkable as the Twins’ turnaround has been, the Yankees’ 91-win season was nearly as surprising. Last summer’s fire sale was supposed to be the start of a two- or three-year rebuilding process. If everything went according to plan, the Yankees would be a force again by 2019, cleansed of their onerous contracts and reliant upon a core of young players with a couple years of experience under their belt.

Instead, those young players burst on the scene and made an immediate impact. Aaron Judge thrust himself into the AL MVP Award conversation, Luis Severino posted Cy Young-type numbers and Gary Sanchez followed up his incredible 2016 debut with a stellar ‘17 campaign.

I absolutely agree that we should be treating just them winning 91 games to be a success in and of itself, considering how many young players that they have on the team. This season has already been a winner to me. Now we just have to hope that they can somehow get to the real playoffs. Severino against all of those lefties, the propensity of this team to have abrupt WOE-ness, the vagaries of a one-game playoff in general…there’s a lot for anyone to be worried about. Let’s hope that they get the chance to face the Indians.

--Posted at 3:23 am by Brian Cronin / 8 Comments | - (0)




Monday, October 2, 2017

Yankees.com: Montgomery solid as Yanks drop finale to Jays

With the Yankees tuning up for the playoffs and the Blue Jays turning their attention toward 2018, Ryan Goins knocked home the go-ahead run with an eighth-inning tapper up the first-base line as Toronto completed the regular season with a 2-1 victory on Sunday afternoon at Yankee Stadium.

Goins’ soft groundout off reliever Domingo German allowed Rob Refsnyder to score Toronto’s second run of the afternoon after New York’s Matt Holliday had tied the game in the seventh inning with his 19th homer, a shot down the left-field line off right-hander Danny Barnes.

Refsnyder got his revenge in the end! smile

Seriously, though, let’s hope that they win on Tuesday…ugh, so tense! I don’t like the Ervin Santana match-up. It brings back too many memories of 2005.

--Posted at 3:13 am by Brian Cronin / 33 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, October 1, 2017

Blue Jays (75-86) @ Yankees (91-70), Sunday, 10/1/2017, 03:05p ET

Blue Jays: Brett Anderson (L): (28.1 IP, 6.04 ERA, -0.7 RA-9 WAR) vs. Yankees: Jordan Montgomery (L): (150 IP, 3.96 ERA, 2.8 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Blue Jays
1. Teoscar Hernandez (R) CF .274/.319/.631, 0.8 fWAR
2. Richard Urena (S) SS .215/.271/.323, -0.2 fWAR
3. Justin Smoak (S) 1B .270/.355/.531, 3.4 fWAR
4. Jose Bautista (R) DH .201/.307/.365, -0.6 fWAR
5. Miguel Montero (L) C .141/.253/.247, -0.4 fWAR
6. Rob Refsnyder (R) RF .208/.296/.229, -0.6 fWAR
7. Ezequiel Carrera (L) LF .284/.356/.411, 0.6 fWAR
8. Darwin Barney (R) 3B .234/.276/.329, -0.6 fWAR
9. Ryan Goins (L) 2B .239/.288/.359, -0.3 fWAR
Team Total: 2.1 fWAR

Yankees
1. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.374/.478, 3.3 fWAR
2. Ronald Torreyes (R) SS .296/.318/.379, 0.6 fWAR
3. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .301/.339/.455, 1.8 fWAR
4. Matt Holliday (R) DH .230/.317/.425, -0.2 fWAR
5. Chase Headley (S) 1B .273/.352/.406, 1.9 fWAR
6. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .223/.367/.425, 3.0 fWAR
7. Austin Romine (R) C .221/.275/.296, -0.5 fWAR
8. Clint Frazier (R) LF .237/.273/.458, -0.3 fWAR
9. Tyler Austin (R) RF .243/.302/.459, 0.0 fWAR
Team Total: 9.6 fWAR

Some serious House Money going on today in the regular season finale.

--Posted at 11:02 am by SG / 38 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Judge powers NY, but AL East title chase ends

Aaron Judge eclipsed Babe Ruth’s 96-year-old record for the most roundtrippers hit at home by a Yankees player, and CC Sabathia walked off to a standing ovation on Saturday at Yankee Stadium as New York defeated the Blue Jays, 2-1, in its penultimate game of the regular season.

Judge’s 484-foot blast, according to Statcast™, off Marcus Stroman was his American League-leading 52nd homer and the rookie’s 33rd in the Bronx this season. Ruth hit 32 home runs just across the Harlem River in 1921, when the Yankees still called the Polo Grounds home.


“It’s incredible. I’ve never played for a team like this,” Judge said. “Everyone gets along. We’re always competing. We’re always having fun. That’s what championship teams are made of, so I’m excited for what’s going to happen here in the postseason.”

Making what could be his final regular-season start in pinstripes, Sabathia started in place of Jaime Garcia and blanked Toronto on four hits over 5 2/3 stellar innings, but the Red Sox defeated the Astros at Fenway Park to clinch their second straight AL East title.

What a home run by Judge!

Oh well, now I sort of really need either the Yankees to lose tomorrow or the Red Sox to win, just so that Tampa Bay game won’t stick in the craw so much. smile

Man, this Tuesday loss is going to hurt so bad. Severino against a whole lineup of lefties? Could be worrisome…

--Posted at 2:54 am by Brian Cronin / 9 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, September 30, 2017

Blue Jays (75-85) @ Yankees (90-70), Saturday, 9/30/2017, 04:05p ET

Blue Jays: Marcus Stroman (R): (197 IP, 3.06 ERA, 5.0 RA-9 WAR) vs. Yankees: CC Sabathia (L): (143 IP, 3.84 ERA, 3.0 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Blue Jays
1. Teoscar Hernandez (R) CF .272/.310/.642, 0.8 fWAR
2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B .272/.388/.563, 5.0 fWAR
3. Justin Smoak (S) 1B .272/.358/.534, 3.5 fWAR
4. Jose Bautista (R) RF .203/.309/.368, -0.5 fWAR
5. Russell Martin (R) C .221/.344/.389, 1.8 fWAR
6. Darwin Barney (R) 2B .233/.276/.330, -0.5 fWAR
7. Ezequiel Carrera (L) LF .284/.357/.411, 0.6 fWAR
8. Rob Refsnyder (R) DH .196/.288/.217, -0.6 fWAR
9. Ryan Goins (L) SS .238/.288/.357, -0.3 fWAR
Team Total: 9.8 fWAR

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .266/.351/.430, 3.6 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) DH .284/.421/.623, 8.1 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.533, 4.5 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.319/.479, 3.9 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .301/.340/.457, 1.8 fWAR
6. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.287/.430, -0.3 fWAR
7. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .216/.363/.421, 2.9 fWAR
8. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF .266/.351/.405, 1.7 fWAR
9. Aaron Hicks (S) RF .267/.371/.480, 3.2 fWAR
Team Total: 29.4 fWAR

--Posted at 11:04 am by SG / 54 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Tanaka’s 15-K gem keeps Yanks in East race

Expertly commanding a lethal splitter that vanished from the strike zone all afternoon, Masahiro Tanaka recorded a career-high 15 strikeouts in a brilliant seven-inning performance that led the Yankees to their 90th win of the season, a 4-0 victory over the Blue Jays on Friday afternoon at Yankee Stadium.

With the victory, the Yankees maintained some hope of overtaking the Red Sox in the American League East race, moving to within 2 games of first place. The Yankees need to win their final two games while the Red Sox lose their final two games to force a tiebreaker game Monday in New York.

Damn, man, is this guy going to opt out or what? Every awful performance I think, “No way” and then he keeps going out and having performances like last night and I think, “Maybe?”

Now that I know Jaime Garcia is pitching Saturday, that explains why the Yankees weren’t exactly pulling out all the stops to win the game against Tampa Bay the other day, as they knew they had Garcia pitching Saturday, so the division is pretty much lost. Oh well, come on Wild Card Game!

Girardi made a point to note that Sanchez will catch every game in the playoffs. Good.

--Posted at 6:02 am by Brian Cronin / 7 Comments | - (0)




Friday, September 29, 2017

Blue Jays (75-84) @ Yankees (89-70), Friday, 9/29/2017, 01:05p ET

Blue Jays: Joe Biagini (R): (114.2 IP, 5.34 ERA, 0.0 RA9 WAR) vs. Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka (R): (171.1 IP, 4.94 ERA, 1.3 RA9 WAR)

Lineups
Blue Jays
1. Teoscar Hernandez (R) CF .282/.313/.667, 0.8 fWAR
2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B .272/.389/.564, 5 fWAR
3. Jose Bautista (R) DH .204/.311/.370, -0.4 fWAR
4. Kendrys Morales (S) 1B .251/.309/.448, -0.6 fWAR
5. Michael Saunders (L) RF .231/.333/.231, -0.6 fWAR
6. Ezequiel Carrera (L) LF .282/.354/.411, 0.6 fWAR
7. Raffy Lopez (L) C .240/.328/.500, 0.4 fWAR
8. Ryan Goins (L) 2B .237/.288/.357, -0.3 fWAR
9. Richard Urena (S) SS .210/.269/.323, -0.2 fWAR
Team Total: 4.7 fWAR

Yankees
1. Aaron Hicks (S) LF .271/.375/.486, 3.3 fWAR
2. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF .266/.352/.407, 1.7 fWAR
3. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.421/.625, 8.1 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .285/.317/.479, 3.8 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .302/.341/.459, 1.8 fWAR
6. Greg Bird (L) 1B .179/.280/.414, -0.4 fWAR
7. Chase Headley (S) DH .274/.353/.408, 1.9 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .218/.363/.426, 2.9 fWAR
9. Austin Romine (R) C .220/.275/.296, -0.6 fWAR
Team Total: 22.5 fWAR

The division was lost yesterday.  Tanaka’s days of an ERA under 5 will be lost tonight.

--Posted at 2:33 pm by SG / 41 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Yanks’ East title hopes take big hit in loss

Wilson Ramos’ go-ahead two-run homer as part of a seven-run fifth inning helped the Rays rally for a 9-6 victory Thursday night at Yankee Stadium, averting a series sweep while all but nixing the Yankees’ hopes of securing the American League East title.

Despite Aaron Judge’s American League-leading 51st home run, the Yankees’ elimination number in the division was reduced to one, meaning the next the next Red Sox win or Yankees loss will hand the AL East to Boston. The Yanks would then play the Twins in the AL Wild Card Game on Tuesday in New York.

They’ve been playing so well that I guess they were due a dud, but holy shit, that was one hell of a dud.

Sonny Gray was terrible and then Jonathan Holder…yikes. I didn’t mind him coming in period, but once it became clear that he had nothing, I would have pulled him before Peter Bourjos came to the plate.

Oh well. That pretty much does it for the division, but honestly, the division was pretty much toast, anyways. One Red Sox win coupled with one Yankees loss was going to do it. That’s hard to avoid.

--Posted at 6:24 am by Brian Cronin / 17 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, September 28, 2017

Rays (76-82) @ Yankees (89-69), Thursday, 9/28/2017, 07:05p ET

Rays: Jake Faria (R): (83.2 IP, 3.33 ERA, 2.2 RA9 WAR) vs. Yankees: Sonny Gray (R): (60.2 IP, 3.12 ERA, 3.0 RA9 WAR)

Lineups
Rays
1. Mallex Smith (L) RF .263/.327/.354, 0.8 fWAR
2. Corey Dickerson (L) DH .277/.320/.483, 2.1 fWAR
3. Evan Longoria (R) 3B .262/.315/.422, 2.4 fWAR
4. Lucas Duda (L) 1B .177/.275/.457, 1.1 fWAR
5. Wilson Ramos (R) C .264/.292/.443, 0.4 fWAR
6. Adeiny Hechavarria (R) SS .250/.284/.406, 1.2 fWAR
7. Daniel Robertson (R) 2B .216/.304/.341, 0.3 fWAR
8. Cesar Puello (R) LF .167/.231/.167, -0.2 fWAR
9. Peter Bourjos (R) CF .223/.276/.380, 0.1 fWAR
Team Total: 8.2 fWAR

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .265/.349/.425, 3.4 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.421/.622, 7.8 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .280/.346/.537, 4.5 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.320/.483, 3.7 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .302/.339/.459, 1.7 fWAR
6. Greg Bird (L) 1B .175/.278/.394, -0.4 fWAR
7. Chase Headley (S) DH .276/.356/.412, 2.1 fWAR
8. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF .264/.350/.406, 1.5 fWAR
9. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .216/.364/.427, 2.9 fWAR
Team Total: 27.2 fWAR

--Posted at 3:21 pm by SG / 79 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Yanks top Rays, keep heat on in AL East

Luis Severino’s confidence bounced back with a sharp tuneup as he prepares for the first postseason start of his career, backed by homers off the bats of Starlin Castro, Greg Bird and Aaron Hicks as the Yankees defeated the Rays, 6-1, on Wednesday evening at Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees (89-69) improved to a season-high 20 games over .500, though they remain three games behind the Red Sox—who beat Toronto on Wednesday—in the American League East.
“We have to play our season and not worry about Boston,” Severino said. “We are in the Wild Card and you have the opportunity to go to the playoffs. We’re hitting good, we’re playing good. We’re winning.”

Man, they’re playing so darn well that the one game playoff is just killer. Anyone can lose a one-game playoff. Don’t get me wrong, this isn’t like 2015 where we were all legitimately concerned about the opposing starting pitcher. The Yankees are in a much better position now than they were back then, as Ervin Santana is no Dallas Keuchel, but again, anyone can lose a one-game playoff.

Anyhow, great win. Severino finished the season with a sub 3.00 ERA, which was awesome to see. The Yankees did a cute bit in the sixth inning, where Didi Gregorius pretended to interview the Yankee hitters after their home runs and Ronald Torreyes held a “camera” on them while Didi interviewed them (the mic was a Gatorade cup and the camera was a box of Gatorade).

Well, Thursday night will tell us if there is still a chance for the Yankees to possibly win the division, but obviously the odds are horrendous. The Red Sox would have to go 1-3 against the Astros while the Yankees would have to win their remaining 4 games or the reverse (Yankees go 3-1 while the Red Sox lose all 4). Not gonna happen. But hey, the fact that the Yankees might win 90 games is amazing in and of itself.

--Posted at 2:53 am by Brian Cronin / 36 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Rays (76-81) @ Yankees (88-69), Wednesday, 9/27/2017, 07:05p ET

Rays: Matt Andriese (R): (81 IP, 4.44 ERA, 0.6 RA-9 WAR) vs. Yankees: Luis Severino (R): (187.1 IP, 3.03 ERA, 5.2 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Rays
1. Kevin Kiermaier (L) CF .279/.340/.456, 2.7 fWAR
2. Lucas Duda (L) DH .181/.281/.469, 1.2 fWAR
3. Evan Longoria (R) 3B .263/.317/.424, 2.5 fWAR
4. Logan Morrison (L) 1B .241/.349/.511, 3.1 fWAR
5. Steven Souza Jr. (R) RF .241/.349/.462, 3.4 fWAR
6. Corey Dickerson (L) LF .278/.322/.487, 2.2 fWAR
7. Adeiny Hechavarria (R) SS .245/.280/.391, 1.0 fWAR
8. Brad Miller (L) 2B .198/.326/.328, -0.2 fWAR
9. Jesus Sucre (R) C .260/.294/.416, 0.9 fWAR
Team Total: 16.8 fWAR

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.348/.422, 3.3 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) DH .283/.419/.621, 7.7 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .283/.349/.541, 4.6 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .290/.322/.486, 3.8 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .302/.340/.454, 1.6 fWAR
6. Greg Bird (L) 1B .173/.279/.376, -0.5 fWAR
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B .275/.355/.411, 2.1 fWAR
8. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF .266/.351/.409, 1.5 fWAR
9. Aaron Hicks (S) RF .264/.371/.462, 3.0 fWAR
Team Total: 27.1 fWAR

--Posted at 3:23 pm by SG / 56 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Yankees secure WC home field, gain on Sox

Aaron Hicks robbed Wilson Ramos of a grand slam with an unbelievable catch, Jordan Montgomery settled in to complete six solid innings and Starlin Castro homered as the Yankees secured home-field advantage for a potential American League Wild Card Game with a 6-1 victory over the Rays on Tuesday evening at Yankee Stadium.
With the win, the Yankees closed within three games of the Red Sox in the AL East race. The Yanks have secured the first AL Wild Card, so if they do not catch Boston, the Wild Card Game would be played at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, Oct. 3 at 8 p.m. ET. The loss officially eliminated the Rays from postseason contention.

“We’ll just continue fighting and playing good,” Castro said. “They’ve been playing good, too, because every time we’ve won, they’ve won. They lost today, we won. If we continue playing like we’re playing, we’ll see what happens.”

What a catch by Hicks! One of the most impressive catches that you’ll see in a baseball game.

I really think that they should just go with a rotation of Gardner, Ellsbury, Hicks and Judge between the three outfield spots and the DH spot. Which should be what they should do next season, as well. Let Holliday and Frazier leave and whammo, you have a lineup of:

Gardner
Judge
Sanchez
Bird
Gregorius
Hicks
Castro
Headley
Ellsbury

That’s a pretty sweet lineup that provides regular semi-rest for Gardner. Ellsbury and Judge, and there’s easily room there to call up Andujar and give him DH at-bats, as well (and if Torres is playing super well, there’s room for him to get on the team, as well).

They really need to get a better back-up catcher, though, for next season. It shouldn’t be TOO costly to get a decent backup catcher. Romine isn’t awful, but nor is he good and it’s SO easy to upgrade that spot with just a little money.

The Yankees are making the division JUST interesting enough for it to be annoying. smile

--Posted at 3:35 am by Brian Cronin / 33 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Rays (76-80) @ Yankees (87-69), Tuesday, 9/26/2017, 07:05p ET

Rays: Blake Snell (L): (121.1 IP, 4.01 ERA, 1.6 RA9 WAR) vs. Yankees: Jordan Montgomery (L): (144 IP, 4.06 ERA, 2.5 RA9 WAR)

Lineups
Rays
1. Kevin Kiermaier (L) CF .276/.338/.455, 2.6 fWAR
2. Steven Souza Jr. (R) RF .236/.344/.459, 3.3 fWAR
3. Evan Longoria (R) 3B .265/.317/.427, 2.5 fWAR
4. Logan Morrison (L) 1B .243/.352/.515, 3.3 fWAR
5. Wilson Ramos (R) C .263/.293/.444, 0.5 fWAR
6. Adeiny Hechavarria (R) SS .249/.284/.398, 1.1 fWAR
7. Trevor Plouffe (R) DH .180/.270/.236, -1.3 fWAR
8. Daniel Robertson (R) 2B .221/.309/.348, 0.4 fWAR
9. Peter Bourjos (R) LF .227/.280/.386, 0.1 fWAR
Team Total: 12.5 fWAR

Yankees
1. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .265/.367/.463, 2.9 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .283/.418/.620, 7.6 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .283/.348/.544, 4.6 fWAR
4. Matt Holliday (R) DH .231/.319/.430, -0.1 fWAR
5. Chase Headley (S) 1B .277/.358/.415, 2.2 fWAR
6. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .297/.334/.443, 1.4 fWAR
7. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .215/.366/.431, 2.9 fWAR
8. Clint Frazier (R) LF .238/.276/.468, -0.2 fWAR
9. Ronald Torreyes (R) SS .292/.313/.373, 0.4 fWAR
Team Total: 21.7 fWAR

--Posted at 2:49 pm by SG / 75 Comments | - (0)




Monday, September 25, 2017

MLB.com: Historic Judge backs solid CC as Yanks cruise

NEW YORK—Never in baseball history has a first-year player hit more home runs than Aaron Judge, who now stands alone among the best rookie home run hitters of all time after New York’s 11-3 win over the Royals at Yankee Stadium on Monday.

Judge hit two home runs to set the new single-season rookie record of 50, breaking the previous mark set by Mark McGwire in 1987. Judge lined a two-run shot the opposite way off Royals starter Jakob Junis in the third, and skied a solo shot to left-center off Trevor Cahill in the seventh. Gary Sanchez followed the seventh-inning blast with a solo shot of his own, while Greg Bird connected on a two-run homer an inning before. All of that power backed starter CC Sabathia, who tossed his second straight strong start in anticipation of the postseason.

I was really pulling for Judge to beat McGwire and at the All-Star Break it seemed like fait accompli.  Then came two crappy months and it looked like Judge had very little chance.  But 13 homers in September and now Judge is alone as the all-time rookie home run king.

Good for Judge, and good for us for getting to watch.

--Posted at 3:18 pm by SG / 67 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Judge hits 47th, 48th HRs, 1 shy of rookie mark

Aaron Judge homered twice in Sunday afternoon’s 9-5 loss to the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre, notching his American League-leading 47th and 48th home runs to close within one blast of Mark McGwire’s 1987 record for the most home runs hit by a Major League rookie.

With the divisional race now effectively over, it is all about who the Yankees pitch in the Wild Card game and whether Aaron Judge hits 50 home runs.

We are witnessing something very special here.

I have no idea who pitches the Wild Card game at the moment. I actually think that CC has an argument if it is the Twins, which sounds insane, and yet…

--Posted at 5:33 am by Brian Cronin / 87 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, September 24, 2017

Yankees (86-68) @ Blue Jays (72-83), Sunday, 9/24/2017, 01:07p ET

Lineups
Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .261/.351/.362, 3.4 fWAR
2. Chase Headley (S) DH .253/.331/.385, 2.2 fWAR
3. Aaron Judge (R) RF .179/.263/.345, 7.0 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .276/.304/.447, 3.7 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .270/.300/.433, 1.3 fWAR
6. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF .263/.330/.374, 1.6 fWAR
7. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .225/.302/.464, 3.0 fWAR
8. Greg Bird (L) 1B , .167/.269/.349, -0.7 fWAR
9. Austin Romine (R) C .242/.269/.382, -0.5 fWAR
Team Total: 21.0 fWAR

Blue Jays
1. Teoscar Hernandez (R) LF .230/.304/.420, 0.3 fWAR
2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B .284/.404/.549, 4.3 fWAR
3. Justin Smoak (S) 1B .217/.314/.391, 3.5 fWAR
4. Jose Bautista (R) RF .234/.366/.452, -0.4 fWAR
5. Kendrys Morales (S) DH .263/.327/.468, -0.7 fWAR
6. Kevin Pillar (R) CF .266/.303/.376, 2.0 fWAR
7. Russell Martin (R) C .231/.335/.398, 1.8 fWAR
8. Darwin Barney (R) 2B .269/.322/.373, -0.7 fWAR
9. Ryan Goins (L) SS .186/.228/.306, -0.7 fWAR
Team Total: 9.4 fWAR

--Posted at 11:13 am by SG / 29 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Flying high: Bird leads Yanks to playoff clinch

It was supposed to take a while for the Yankees to rebuild after selling off some key veterans last season—or at least, that was the outside perception. The Yanks never bought into that, and as they sprayed cold bubbly in the visiting clubhouse at Rogers Centre, there was great optimism about accomplishing much more in October.

The Yankees clinched the 53rd postseason berth in franchise history on Saturday afternoon, with Greg Bird cracking a three-run homer to support Sonny Gray’s solid effort in a 5-1 victory over the Blue Jays. Shaking hands on the field before cutting loose behind closed doors, this exciting crop of “Baby Bombers” now plans to savor high-stakes baseball.

One of the worst things for me, personally, is when I’m on vacation and the Yankees have a losing streak, because it distracts me from the vacation. I was pleased to not have any distractions this week. What a sweep of the Twins! And now they’ve already clinched a postseason spot with more than a week to go? That’s awesome.

Congrats, Yankees! The best thing (besides possibly doing well in the playoffs this season) is that there doesn’t seem to be any real reason why this same basic team couldn’t come back next year and just do it all again, and maybe even be BETTER!

Pretty darn good time to be a Yankee fan…even with the inevitable 3-2 Wild Card Game loss to Ricky Nolasco looming ahead of us.

--Posted at 12:02 am by Brian Cronin / 13 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, September 23, 2017

Yankees (85-68) @ Blue Jays (72-82), Saturday, 9/23/2017, 01:07p ET

Yankees: Sonny Gray (R): (54.2 IP, 3.29 ERA, 2.6 RA-9 WAR) vs. Blue Jays: Joe Biagini (R): (109.2 IP, 5.33 ERA, -0.1 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .267/.352/.427, 3.5 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .280/.416/.600, 7.0 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .279/.345/.533, 4.3 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .289/.322/.491, 3.8 fWAR
5. Chase Headley (S) DH .277/.355/.416, 2.1 fWAR
6. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF .270/.357/.415, 1.7 fWAR
7. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .295/.331/.444, 1.3 fWAR
8. Greg Bird (L) 1B .164/.270/.328, 0.0 fWAR
9. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .221/.370/.430, 2.9 fWAR
Team Total: 26.6 fWAR

Blue Jays
1. Teoscar Hernandez (R) LF .268/.288/.518, 0.2 fWAR
2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B .264/.385/.543, 4.3 fWAR
3. Justin Smoak (S) 1B .273/.356/.540, 3.4 fWAR
4. Jose Bautista (R) RF .203/.310/.367, -0.3 fWAR
5. Kendrys Morales (S) DH .249/.307/.448, -0.7 fWAR
6. Kevin Pillar (R) CF .257/.303/.409, 2.1 fWAR
7. Ryan Goins (L) SS .228/.280/.343, -0.6 fWAR
8. Darwin Barney (R) 2B .236/.275/.327, -0.6 fWAR
9. Raffy Lopez (L) C .234/.327/.511, 0.4 fWAR
Team Total: 8.2 fWAR

--Posted at 12:37 pm by SG / 36 Comments | - (0)




Friday, September 22, 2017

Yankees (85-67) @ Blue Jays (71-82), Friday, 9/22/2017, 07:07p ET

Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka (R): (165.2 IP, 4.73 ERA, 1.7 RA-9 WAR) vs. Blue Jays: Marco Estrada (R): (176.2 IP, 4.84 ERA, 2.1 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF .273/.361/.420, 1.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .277/.412/.591, 6.7 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .282/.347/.538, 4.3 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .291/.325/.495, 3.9 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .298/.334/.448, 1.4 fWAR
6. Matt Holliday (R) DH .233/.321/.433, 0.0 fWAR
7. Chase Headley (S) 1B .278/.357/.419, 2.2 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .218/.366/.424, 2.8 fWAR
9. Clint Frazier (R) LF .242/.275/.476, -0.2 fWAR
Team Total: 22.9 fWAR

Blue Jays
1. Teoscar Hernandez (R) LF .250/.273/.462, 0.1 fWAR
2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B .264/.386/.546, 4.3 fWAR
3. Justin Smoak (S) 1B .275/.358/.544, 3.5 fWAR
4. Jose Bautista (R) RF .203/.309/.369, -0.3 fWAR
5. Kevin Pillar (R) CF .258/.303/.410, 2.1 fWAR
6. Russell Martin (R) C .222/.349/.382, 1.7 fWAR
7. Miguel Montero (L) DH .136/.245/.247, -0.4 fWAR
8. Darwin Barney (R) 2B .237/.276/.329, -0.6 fWAR
9. Ryan Goins (L) SS .228/.279/.335, -0.7 fWAR
Team Total: 9.7 fWAR

--Posted at 4:01 pm by SG / 51 Comments | - (0)



CBS Sports: Here’s why the Yankees are better than you think they are

If you’re interested in a getting a gauge on team quality that goes beyond runs scored and runs allowed—and we are—then you can turn to the BaseRuns system at FanGraphs. BaseRuns drills down to the plate appearance level and corrects for some of the sequencing and clustering effects inherent in run differential. Sometimes it gives you a different picture. In the case of the 2017 Yankees, it sees a team that should be 94-58 instead of that actual record of 85-67. The Indians are tops in the current BaseRuns standings, and the Dodgers are second at 95 wins. The Yankees, of course, check in just behind them. The broader takeaway is that both run differential and BaseRuns see the Yankees as being significantly better than their actual record. That has meaning as we head toward the postseason.

More evidence the Yankees are better than Boston.

--Posted at 12:07 pm by SG / 13 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, September 21, 2017

NJ.com: What’s the Yankees’ magic number to clinch playoff spot? (9/21/17)

NEW YORK—Start the playoff countdown.

With the Yankees’ win over the Twins and the Angels’ loss to the Indians, New York’s magic number to reach the playoffs dipped on Wednesday.

Heading into play on September 21, the Yankees magic number to clinch a postseason berth is now just three.

That’s the combined number of Yankees wins and Angels losses that will guarantee at least a postseason berth for the pinstripes.

I guess the Yankees should start lining up their pitching for the coin flip game.  I am hoping the Twins take the second wild card, because the idea of facing Mike Trout in a winner-take-all game is frightening.

--Posted at 7:28 am by SG / 62 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Twins (78-73) @ Yankees (84-67), Wednesday, 9/20/2017, 01:05p ET

Twins: Bartolo Colon (R): (69.1 IP, 4.80 ERA, -1.2 RA9 WAR) vs. Yankees: Luis Severino (R): (184.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 5.4 RA9 WAR)

Lineups
Twins
1. Brian Dozier (R) 2B .259/.346/.477, 3.7 fWAR
2. Joe Mauer (L) DH .308/.385/.424, 2.3 fWAR
3. Jorge Polanco (S) SS .253/.308/.404, 1.3 fWAR
4. Eddie Rosario (L) LF .292/.330/.515, 2.3 fWAR
5. Byron Buxton (R) CF .254/.316/.423, 3.4 fWAR
6. Max Kepler (L) RF .243/.315/.425, 1.2 fWAR
7. Eduardo Escobar (S) 3B .251/.309/.442, 1.3 fWAR
8. Kennys Vargas (S) 1B .251/.311/.453, 0.4 fWAR
9. Jason Castro (L) C .233/.325/.378, 1.2 fWAR
Team Total: 17.1 fWAR

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .265/.349/.426, 3.3 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .276/.412/.586, 6.6 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .277/.344/.530, 4.1 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .292/.325/.491, 3.8 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .301/.337/.452, 1.4 fWAR
6. Matt Holliday (R) DH .234/.323/.436, 0 fWAR
7. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF .267/.355/.407, 1.5 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .222/.368/.431, 2.8 fWAR
9. Greg Bird (L) 1B .144/.255/.297, -0.9 fWAR
Team Total: 22.6 fWAR

--Posted at 10:12 am by SG / 66 Comments | - (0)



TGS: Luis Severino’s start moved up to Wednesday against Minnesota

NEW YORK—Luis Severino was moved up two days by the New York Yankees and is scheduled to start Wednesday against the Minnesota Twins.

Yankees manager Joe Girardi said Tuesday the move was made to give Severino three more regular-season starts as New York tries to overtake Boston in the American League East.

Severino had been slated to start Friday at Toronto and will be replaced against the Blue Jays by Masahiro Tanaka.

A 23-year-old right-hander, Severino is 13-6 with a 2.93 ERA in 29 starts this season. He has not allowed more than one earned run in nine of 12 outings since the All-Star break.

“Our goal is still to win the division. We’ve clinched nothing at this point,” Girardi said. “We still have a lot of work to do in front of us, so it gives us the ability to start him three more times.”

Obviously if you can get more starts out of Severino it’s better, but the division is over.  Boston’s schedule is a sick joke and they are not going to lose another three games during the remainder of the regular season.

Congratulations to them on their AL East title.  I’ll take the consolation prize of winning the third order standings division title.

--Posted at 7:27 am by SG / 8 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Twins (78-72) @ Yankees (83-67), Tuesday, 9/19/2017, 07:05p ET

Twins: Jose Berrios (R): (136 IP, 3.84 ERA, 2.4 RA9 WAR) vs. Yankees: CC Sabathia (L): (131 IP, 3.85 ERA, 2.7 RA9 WAR)

Lineups
Twins
1. Brian Dozier (R) 2B .259/.345/.478, 3.7 fWAR
2. Joe Mauer (L) 1B .306/.384/.423, 2.2 fWAR
3. Jorge Polanco (S) SS .251/.306/.404, 1.2 fWAR
4. Eduardo Escobar (S) 3B .254/.312/.446, 1.4 fWAR
5. Byron Buxton (R) CF .255/.317/.426, 3.4 fWAR
6. Eddie Rosario (L) LF .295/.332/.519, 2.4 fWAR
7. Robbie Grossman (S) DH .248/.369/.390, 0.7 fWAR
8. Chris Gimenez (R) C .211/.341/.357, 0.9 fWAR
9. Max Kepler (L) RF .243/.316/.420, 1.1 fWAR
Team Total: 17.0 fWAR

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .262/.347/.422, 3.2 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .275/.412/.587, 6.6 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.346/.533, 4.1 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .292/.324/.491, 3.8 fWAR
5. Chase Headley (S) DH .281/.358/.422, 2.2 fWAR
6. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .296/.332/.449, 1.3 fWAR
7. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF .267/.355/.406, 1.5 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .226/.371/.439, 2.8 fWAR
9. Greg Bird (L) 1B .147/.248/.302, -0.9 fWAR
Team Total: 24.6 fWAR

--Posted at 2:48 pm by SG / 60 Comments | - (0)



NJ.com: What’s the Yankees’ magic number to clinch playoff spot? (9/19/17)

NEW YORK—The Yankees didn’t just beat the Twins on Monday night.

They took yet another step toward clinching a playoff berth.

With the Angels’ off day and a win over the Twins, the Yankees’ magic number to reach the postseason dropped one game to seven.

That’s how many combined wins or Angels losses the Yankees need to secure a playoff berth.

I don’t really consider the wild card game ‘the playoffs.’  I do consider it the postseason.  With the division looking like a real long shot now, the Yankees are at least putting themselves into a position where they can set up their roster and rotation for that play-in game and then hope for the best.

It’s annoying, because they are probably better than Boston this year but Boston’s been lucky and the Yankees haven’t.  There’s no reason to expect that luck (good or bad) to predict future results, but it has created the situation the Yankees are in now.

It’s amazing the Yankee are in contention given how terrible they’ve played lately. From the linked article:

- The Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6G and 8-2 in their last 10G…are 12-4 in their last 16G, matching their best 16-game stretch this season\
- are 16G above .500, matching their season-high watermark (were also 16G above .500 at the end of play on Saturday)
- are 22-12 since 8/14 and 35-22 since 7/20
- are 38-26 (.594) since the All-Star break.

They stink.  They’re terrible.

--Posted at 8:37 am by SG / 40 Comments | - (0)




Monday, September 18, 2017

Twins (78-71) @ Yankees (82-67), Monday, 9/18/2017, 07:05p ET

Twins: Ervin Santana (R): (193.2 IP, 3.35 ERA, 4.9 RA-9 WAR) vs. Yankees: Jaime Garcia (L): (29.1 IP, 4.60 ERA, 1.6 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Twins
1. Brian Dozier (R) 2B .260/.346/.480, 3.7 fWAR
2. Joe Mauer (L) 1B .306/.385/.424, 2.2 fWAR
3. Byron Buxton (R) CF .258/.320/.430, 3.5 fWAR
4. Jorge Polanco (S) SS .251/.307/.403, 1.2 fWAR
5. Eddie Rosario (L) RF .295/.333/.521, 2.4 fWAR
6. Eduardo Escobar (S) 3B .254/.312/.448, 1.4 fWAR
7. Robbie Grossman (S) DH .249/.369/.393, 0.7 fWAR
8. Jason Castro (L) C .234/.327/.380, 1.3 fWAR
9. Ehire Adrianza (S) LF .270/.335/.383, 0.9 fWAR
Team Total: 17.3 fWAR

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .259/.345/.420, 3.0 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .275/.413/.584, 6.5 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .281/.349/.538, 4.2 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .294/.327/.495, 3.9 fWAR
5. Chase Headley (S) DH .281/.359/.423, 2.3 fWAR
6. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .297/.333/.451, 1.3 fWAR
7. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF .266/.352/.405, 1.4 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .224/.373/.441, 2.9 fWAR
9. Greg Bird (L) 1B .150/.254/.310, -0.8 fWAR
Team Total: 24.7 fWAR

--Posted at 4:46 pm by SG / 75 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, September 17, 2017

Orioles (72-77) @ Yankees (82-66), Sunday, 9/17/2017, 01:05p ET

Orioles: Ubaldo Jimenez (R): (134.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, -1.2 RA-9 WAR) vs. Yankees: Sonny Gray (R): (50.2 IP, 2.66 ERA, 2.9 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Orioles
TBA

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) CF .259/.346/.422, 3.0 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .275/.414/.584, 6.5 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .283/.350/.543, 4.3 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .295/.328/.491, 3.8 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .294/.331/.450, 1.2 fWAR
6. Matt Holliday (R) DH .233/.321/.434, -0.1 fWAR
7. Greg Bird (L) 1B , -0.8 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .228/.376/.449, 2.9 fWAR
9. Clint Frazier (R) LF .240/.273/.463, -0.2 fWAR
Team Total: 20.6 fWAR

--Posted at 10:17 am by SG / 42 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, September 16, 2017

Orioles (72-76) @ Yankees (81-66), Saturday, 9/16/2017, 04:05p ET

Lineups
Orioles
1. Tim Beckham (R) DH .324/.359/.551, 3.3 fWAR
2. Manny Machado (R) 3B .266/.321/.490, 3.3 fWAR
3. Jonathan Schoop (R) 2B .300/.344/.527, 4.0 fWAR
4. Adam Jones (R) CF .283/.319/.470, 1.4 fWAR
5. Trey Mancini (R) 1B .292/.338/.503, 1.6 fWAR
6. Welington Castillo (R) C .291/.327/.508, 2.5 fWAR
7. J.J. Hardy (R) SS .211/.248/.308, -0.7 fWAR
8. Austin Hays (R) RF—/—/—, -0.2 fWAR
9. Joey Rickard (R) LF .248/.284/.356, 0.4 fWAR
Team Total: 15.6 fWAR

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .259/.347/.423, 3.1 fWAR
2. Chase Headley (S) DH .281/.359/.425, 2.2 fWAR
3. Aaron Judge (R) RF .276/.413/.587, 6.5 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .291/.324/.482, 3.5 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .296/.332/.453, 1.3 fWAR
6. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF .258/.347/.394, 1.2 fWAR
7. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .226/.373/.432, 2.7 fWAR
8. Greg Bird (L) 1B .151/.260/.292, -0.8 fWAR
9. Austin Romine (R) C .224/.281/.299, -0.4 fWAR
Team Total: 19.3 fWAR

--Posted at 12:20 pm by SG / 42 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Didi’s 4 RBIs lift Yanks in Girardi’s 900th NY win

As far as the Yankees are concerned, the American League East race is far from over. New York, which manager Joe Girardi has repeatedly said is not content with the top AL Wild Card spot, used a four-RBI night from Didi Gregorius and another dominant eight-inning start from Luis Severino to win for the sixth time in seven games with Friday’s 8-2 victory over the Orioles at Yankee Stadium.

The win—Girardi’s 900th as Yankees manager—kept the Yanks from losing ground on the first-place Red Sox as they try to pull off a late surge. New York remained three games behind Boston, which beat Tampa Bay in 15 innings Friday night.

“We have to bear down in these last couple weeks and go for the playoffs,” Gregorius said. “That’s what we’re shooting for.”

Did ANYone expect the Red Sox to lose that Tampa Bay game after getting it into extras? Oh well, that’s why it is so hard to make comebacks of even seemingly slim leads in the final month of the season. You basically need notable losing streaks to have a chance. Normal results are going to screw you.

Luckily, the Yankees HAVE the lead in the Wild Card chase, so the same basic idea applies. So long as the Yankees continue to win at a good rate, they will lock that spot up. Let’s just hope that they do, in fact, continue to win at a good rate.

I’m going to without internet for the next few days (I’m going on an Alaskan cruise for my wife’s birthday), so either someone else will throw a recap up or we’ll just go recap-less until I can log in again. I’ll have to find the Yankee scores like we did in the savage days - watching sports television scrolls!!

--Posted at 11:09 am by Brian Cronin / 3 Comments | - (0)




Friday, September 15, 2017

Orioles (72-75) @ Yankees (80-66), Friday, 9/15/2017, 07:05p ET

Orioles: Gabriel Ynoa (R): (19.1 IP, 4.19 ERA, 0.2 RA9 WAR) vs. Yankees: Luis Severino (R): (176.1 IP, 2.96 ERA, 5.0 RA9 WAR)

Lineups
Orioles
TBA

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .260/.348/.424, 3.1 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .277/.412/.589, 6.4 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .281/.349/.544, 4.2 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .290/.323/.475, 3.4 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .299/.335/.458, 1.4 fWAR
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B .277/.356/.422, 2.1 fWAR
7. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF .261/.351/.399, 1.3 fWAR
8. Matt Holliday (R) DH .230/.319/.433, -0.1 fWAR
9. Greg Bird (L) 1B .146/.252/.262, -0.9 fWAR
Team Total: 20.9 fWAR

--Posted at 3:24 pm by SG / 64 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Judge’s 2 HRs fuel power show, rout of O’s

The Yankees settled back in at home Thursday night. With 14 of their final 17 regular-season games set to be played at Yankee Stadium, it was time to get comfortable. It was time, as manager Joe Girardi said, to take advantage of the schedule.

“It starts tonight,” Girardi said before the game.

It certainly did. The Yankees scored six times in the first inning and coasted past the Orioles, 13-5, to remain three games behind the Red Sox in the American League East. The Yankees continue to lead the AL Wild Card standings as well.

Huge win. The Yankees now have a SIX game lead over the Los Angeles Angels for the 2nd Wild Card. That’s pretty good. 14 games over .500. Not too shabby.

Let’s hope they keep it up tomorrow.

--Posted at 8:22 am by Brian Cronin / 33 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, September 14, 2017

Orioles (72-74) @ Yankees (79-66), Thursday, 9/14/2017, 07:05p ET

Orioles: Wade Miley (L): (148.2 IP, 4.96 ERA, 1.0 RA-9 WAR) vs. Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka (R): (158.2 IP, 4.82 ERA, 1.4 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Orioles
1. Tim Beckham (R) SS .333/.366/.571, 3.3 fWAR
2. Manny Machado (R) 3B .269/.323/.496, 3.4 fWAR
3. Jonathan Schoop (R) 2B .302/.346/.527, 4.0 fWAR
4. Adam Jones (R) CF .283/.319/.471, 1.4 fWAR
5. Trey Mancini (R) LF .291/.338/.500, 1.5 fWAR
6. Chris Davis (L) 1B .217/.311/.429, 0.3 fWAR
7. Mark Trumbo (R) DH .241/.295/.412, -0.7 fWAR
8. Welington Castillo (R) C .293/.330/.505, 2.5 fWAR
9. Seth Smith (L) RF .259/.340/.439, 0.6 fWAR
Team Total: 16.3 fWAR

Yankees
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF .260/.344/.398, 1.2 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .273/.410/.576, 6.1 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .279/.348/.535, 4.0 fWAR
4. Matt Holliday (R) DH .229/.320/.435, -0.1 fWAR
5. Chase Headley (S) 1B .277/.356/.424, 2.2 fWAR
6. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .290/.323/.477, 3.4 fWAR
7. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .217/.362/.401, 2.5 fWAR
8. Ronald Torreyes (R) 2B .291/.312/.368, 0.4 fWAR
9. Clint Frazier (R) LF .231/.260/.453, -0.3 fWAR
Team Total: 19.4 fWAR

In his 12 starts prior to his last one, Tanaka had put up a 2.77 ERA and I thought he had a chance to end the year with an ERA under 4.  Unfortunately, he got blitzed last time out and that isn’t going to happen.  When he gets shelled today, even an ERA under 5 will be wishful thinking…

--Posted at 2:50 pm by SG / 55 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Yankees.com: Stellar ‘pen work preserves lead in Yanks’ win

With the effects of Hurricane Irma forcing the series between the Yankees and Rays to Citi Field in Queens, the Yankees had a prime opportunity to capitalize on playing road games in their home city. They did just that, taking two of three from the Rays with a 3-2 win on Wednesday.

A three-run second inning, highlighted by Brett Gardner’s two-run single, and another strong showing from one of baseball’s best bullpens paved the way for the win.
The Yankees now trail Boston by 3 1/2 games in the American League East race and increased their lead over the Twins to 3 1/2 for the top Wild Card spot. Both Boston and Minnesota are scheduled to play later on Wednesday.

Huge win considering the matchup on the day, as Chris Archer had some ridiculous numbers against the Yankees coming into day (including going at least 6 innings in a whole bunch of games in a row) and the Yankees had Jaime Garcia, but they pulled it off.

It was clear in the fifth inning, with Chad Green available, Garcia was going to be going batter-to-batter, even with a rwo-run lead, but Garcia was still pissed off when he was removed after giving up a two-out single in front of Evan Longoria. Even when Girardi came to talk to Garcia later, Garcia wasn’t having it.

Green was amazing, as always, and Tommy Kahnle pitched in and out of trouble, but then Dellin Betances was wild again, so Girardi pulled him with two outs in the 8th inning and brought in Chapman, who quickly walked his first batter and then gave up an RBI single to Adeiny Hechavarria (who won the game last night for the Rays), who was 6-10 in this series. Wow. Chapman then struck out pinch-hitter Wilson Ramos. Then, in the ninth, Chapman led off the inning with a walk to the #9 hitter, but then struck out the next three batters to earn the save.

The Yankee offense was awfully anemic tonight, including some very poor hitting with runners in scoring position late (bases loaded and 1 out - no runs, first and third and no outs - no runs) but they got enough runs to pull out the series win. Back to 13 games over .500. Not too shabby.

--Posted at 5:23 pm by Brian Cronin / 21 Comments | - (0)



Yankees (78-66) @ Rays (72-74), Wednesday, 9/13/2017, 07:10p ET

Yankees: Jaime Garcia (L): (24.2 IP, 5.11 ERA, 1.4 RA-9 WAR) vs. Rays: Chris Archer (R): (182.1 IP, 4.00 ERA, 2.7 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .258/.347/.424, 3.1 fWAR
2. Chase Headley (S) 1B .278/.358/.426, 2.2 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) DH .280/.349/.536, 4.0 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .293/.327/.482, 3.6 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .298/.334/.459, 1.3 fWAR
6. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF .256/.339/.392, 1.0 fWAR
7. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .213/.353/.400, 2.4 fWAR
8. Clint Frazier (R) RF .239/.269/.469, -0.2 fWAR
9. Austin Romine (R) C .229/.283/.305, -0.4 fWAR
Team Total: 17.0 fWAR

Rays
1. Kevin Kiermaier (L) CF .277/.338/.450, 2.4 fWAR
2. Lucas Duda (L) DH .198/.313/.532, 1.6 fWAR
3. Evan Longoria (R) 3B .264/.318/.430, 2.4 fWAR
4. Logan Morrison (L) 1B .246/.352/.525, 3.2 fWAR
5. Steven Souza Jr. (R) RF .245/.351/.475, 3.4 fWAR
6. Adeiny Hechavarria (R) SS .247/.278/.395, 0.9 fWAR
7. Peter Bourjos (R) LF .228/.282/.389, 0.1 fWAR
8. Jesus Sucre (R) C .258/.295/.390, 0.7 fWAR
9. Danny Espinosa (S) 2B .313/.389/.313, -1.0 fWAR
Team Total: 13.7 fWAR

Jaime Garcia = do not need to watch.

--Posted at 10:10 am by SG / 96 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Yanks held to one run in loss to Rays at Citi

The Rays enjoyed their temporary home at Citi Field on Tuesday night, even if most of the fans were rooting against them.

And even though most of those fans were hoping the Yankees would take another step toward the postseason, the Rays turned the energy in their favor in a 2-1 win. Five Rays pitchers combined on a three-hitter, and Adeiny Hechavarria hit a tie-breaking home run in the eighth inning, ruining Sonny Gray’s best start as a Yankee and giving the Rays what they hope will be an important win.

Steve Cishek seemed to believe this was a much bigger win for the Rays than it really was. They’re, what, at .500, six back of the Wild Card with, like, 21 teams between them and the second Wild Card. They’re d-u-n done.

Anyhow, shitty loss, although I continue to love the Sonny Gray Experience. Talent well spent, Cash! This guy is really good.

Tough game later today, with Jaime Garcia matched up against Chris Archer. That’s a very bad matchup for the Yankees, especially since they struggled (well, to be precise, Judge REALLY struggles) against power-throwing righties.

--Posted at 9:36 am by Brian Cronin / 4 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Yankees (78-65) @ Rays (71-74), Tuesday, 9/12/2017, 07:10p ET

Yankees: Sonny Gray (R): (42.2 IP, 2.74 ERA, 2.6 RA-9 WAR) vs. Rays: Blake Snell (L): (109.1 IP, 4.36 ERA, 1.0 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) CF .258/.348/.425, 3.1 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .275/.411/.579, 6.2 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .283/.352/.541, 4.1 fWAR
4. Matt Holliday (R) DH .229/.320/.435, -0.1 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .301/.337/.463, 1.4 fWAR
6. Chase Headley (S) 1B .278/.358/.427, 2.2 fWAR
7. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .216/.354/.405, 2.4 fWAR
8. Ronald Torreyes (R) SS .293/.314/.370, 0.4 fWAR
9. Clint Frazier (R) LF .243/.274/.477, -0.2 fWAR
Team Total: 19.5 fWAR

Rays
1. Kevin Kiermaier (L) CF .277/.339/.443, 2.3 fWAR
2. Lucas Duda (L) DH .197/.315/.533, 1.6 fWAR
3. Evan Longoria (R) 3B .265/.320/.432, 2.5 fWAR
4. Logan Morrison (L) 1B .248/.354/.528, 3.3 fWAR
5. Steven Souza Jr. (R) RF .246/.351/.477, 3.4 fWAR
6. Corey Dickerson (L) LF .279/.324/.497, 2.3 fWAR
7. Wilson Ramos (R) C .240/.272/.386, -0.2 fWAR
8. Brad Miller (L) 2B .195/.333/.322, -0.2 fWAR
9. Adeiny Hechavarria (R) SS .245/.277/.382, 0.8 fWAR
Team Total: 15.8 fWAR

--Posted at 3:57 pm by SG / 47 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Big 4th powers Yanks to win over TB at Citi

Evan Longoria had joked that there is no such thing as a “neutral site” when playing against the Yankees, whose followers always seem to travel quite well. Todd Frazier’s three-run homer highlighted a five-run fourth inning as the Bombers made the interborough trip a memorable one, powering a 5-1 victory over the Rays on Monday evening at Citi Field.

In the first of three games relocated to Queens by Hurricane Irma, right-hander Jake Odorizzi held New York hitless through the first three innings before requiring 51 pitches to record two outs in the fourth, a barrage highlighted by Frazier’s 24th homer of the season and his eighth since being traded to the Yankees.

“It just seems like when you come to the ballpark right now, something good is going to happen,” Frazier said. “It could be any guy, and it has been. The pitching has been there, the hitting has been there, and we’re clicking right now at the right time.”

With their eighth victory in 11 games, the Yankees moved within three games of the idle Red Sox in the American League East race. Tampa Bay fell four games behind the Twins for the second AL Wild Card; the Yankees hold the first AL Wild Card spot.

This was a big time win. CC didn’t look great and Odorizzi was dominating and the Yankees still ended up getting the big victory. This was one of those rare occasions when the Yankee bullpen came in early and did not give up a run. Joe Girardi boldly went to David Robertson in the fifth inning when the leverage was at its highest and it worked out great. It was nice to see him willing to pull CC in a tough spot and deprive CC from a win. CC seemed to take it in stride. In a funny bit, apparently CC found out that Todd Frazier has a web site where he sells merchandise based on himself (you know, towels, blankets, etc) and CC was so amused that he bought a Todd Frazier blanket for everyone on the team. Good stuff.

This win allowed me to avoid having to say “in the loss column” now, and I can just say that the Yankees are three back of the Red Sox in the AL East race,four ahead of Minnesota in the Wild Card race and five ahead of the Angels, six ahead of the Rangers and seven ahead of the Royals (eight ahead of the Orioles and Mariners). So long as the Yankees keep on winning, they will be in good shape. 13 games over .500 is very impressive.

--Posted at 1:01 am by Brian Cronin / 19 Comments | - (0)




Monday, September 11, 2017

Yankees (77-65) @ Rays (71-73), Monday, 9/11/2017, 07:10p ET

Yankees: CC Sabathia (L): (126.2 IP, 3.91 ERA, 2.5 RA-9 WAR) vs. Rays: Jake Odorizzi (R): (123.2 IP, 4.58 ERA, 0.7 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .258/.348/.426, 3.2 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .277/.411/.583, 6.1 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .283/.351/.543, 4.0 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .295/.328/.485, 3.7 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .304/.341/.468, 1.7 fWAR
6. Matt Holliday (R) DH .232/.324/.440, 0.1 fWAR
7. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF .258/.340/.396, 1.0 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .215/.356/.389, 2.4 fWAR
9. Greg Bird (L) 1B , -0.9 fWAR
Team Total: 21.3 fWAR

Rays
1. Kevin Kiermaier (L) CF .278/.341/.447, 2.2 fWAR
2. Trevor Plouffe (R) 3B .190/.273/.253, -1.2 fWAR
3. Evan Longoria (R) DH .265/.320/.433, 2.5 fWAR
4. Lucas Duda (L) 1B .202/.317/.546, 1.7 fWAR
5. Cesar Puello (R) LF .083/.083/.083 , -0.2 fWAR
6. Wilson Ramos (R) C .238/.271/.387, -0.2 fWAR
7. Adeiny Hechavarria (R) SS .236/.268/.361, 0.5 fWAR
8. Danny Espinosa (S) 2B .417/.500/.417, -0.9 fWAR
9. Peter Bourjos (R) RF .224/.273/.385, 0.0 fWAR
Team Total: 4.4 fWAR

So fWAR says this Yankee lineup is 13 wins better than this Rays lineup.  And yet, the Yankees have only six more wins.  That’s annoying.

--Posted at 4:44 pm by SG / 48 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, September 10, 2017

Yankees.com: Judge (2 HRs), Yanks trim East deficit to 3 1/2

Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez each crushed two home runs and Didi Gregorius had four hits as the Yankees won for the second time in three games against the Rangers with a 16-7 victory Sunday afternoon at Globe Life Park.

The victory allowed the Yankees to move within 3 1/2 games of the Red Sox in the American League East. They also now have a 3 1/2- game lead over the Twins in the AL Wild Card race with 20 games left. With the Twins losing on Sunday, the Rangers remained 2 1/2 games behind them for the second AL Wild Card spot.
Judge hit two home runs for the fourth time this season and first since June 11 against the Red Sox. The 41 home runs are the second most by a rookie in Major League history behind Mark McGwire’s 49 in 1987.

It’s funny, for such an awesome win, there were still some some major sore spots. Not so much Greg Bird going 0-5, but the fact that Montgomery couldn’t even get to the fifth inning despite being staked to a 9-1 lead. And Dellin Betances sucked again in a super low pressure situation. Ugh.

Still, that was outweighed by the awesomeness of them scoring 16 runs. 16 runs, people! Two home runs for Aaron Judge, two home runs for Gary Sanchez and four hits for Didi. Amazing.

The Twins lost and the Red Sox lost (the Angels won). The Yankees now stand four games ahead of the Twins in the loss column and three games back of the Red Sox in the loss column. They’re five games up on the Angels in the loss column and six games up on the Rangers, Royals, Mariners and currently the Orioles (it could be seven if the Orioles lose tonight). The Red Sox host the A’s the next series, so that will not be good for the division race, but at least the Wild Card race is looking more reasonable. As I’ve been saying for a month or so, really, all they need to do is keep winning games and they should be fine. They’re now 12 games over for the first time in quite a while. That’s good.

The Yankees head to Citifield to play the Rays in a three-game set that was moved from Tampa Bay due to Hurricane Irma. CC gets the first game. We’ll probably see Jaime Garcia get a start this series. Hopefully he doesn’t suck.

--Posted at 6:47 pm by Brian Cronin / 45 Comments | - (0)



Yankees (76-65) @ Rangers (71-70), Sunday, 9/10/2017, 03:05p ET

Yankees: Jordan Montgomery (L): (134.2 IP, 4.14 ERA, 2.1 RA-9 WAR) vs. Rangers: A.J. Griffin (R): (69 IP, 5.09 ERA, 0.7 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .257/.347/.423, 3.2 fWAR
2. Chase Headley (S) 3B .279/.360/.430, 2.2 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) DH .278/.346/.524, 3.6 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .289/.323/.478, 3.5 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .309/.346/.476, 1.8 fWAR
6. Aaron Judge (R) RF .274/.409/.568, 5.8 fWAR
7. Greg Bird (L) 1B .155/.265/.278, 0.0 fWAR
8. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF .258/.336/.393, 0.9 fWAR
9. Austin Romine (R) C .220/.276/.293, -0.6 fWAR
Team Total: 20.4 fWAR

Rangers
1. Delino DeShields (R) CF .279/.354/.380, 2.2 fWAR
2. Shin-Soo Choo (L) DH .262/.363/.414, 0.7 fWAR
3. Elvis Andrus (R) SS .305/.347/.496, 4.2 fWAR
4. Mike Napoli (R) 1B .193/.287/.432, -0.6 fWAR
5. Nomar Mazara (L) RF .260/.335/.443, 1.0 fWAR
6. Robinson Chirinos (R) C .266/.376/.545, 2.3 fWAR
7. Joey Gallo (L) 3B .210/.336/.554, 2.9 fWAR
8. Rougned Odor (L) 2B .214/.257/.413, -0.5 fWAR
9. Ryan Rua (R) LF .208/.282/.340, -0.5 fWAR
Team Total: 11.7 fWAR

--Posted at 10:38 am by SG / 49 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Yanks rally late, outlast Rangers in duel

After a dazzling pitching duel, the Yankees pushed across two runs in the top of the ninth to knock off the Rangers, 3-1, on Saturday afternoon at Globe Life Park.

The Yankees trailed, 1-0, after seven before rallying and reinforcing their hold on the lead in the American League Wild Card race. The Rangers are five back of the Yankees while both teams awaited results of other games later on Saturday.
“The team’s going to hit,” Yankees pitcher Luis Severino said, of being down, 1-0. “They’ve got to do something. But in my mind, I just was thinking ‘I’ve got to keep this a one-run game.’ And that’s what I did.”

It’s good to know that Severino has more faith in this offense than we do.

Wow, what a great win. They did what they almost never do. They trailed all the game and then came alive in the late innings. Some of the key moments were Matt Holliday’s pinch-hit single in the 8th (Texas tried to force the Yankees’ hand by bringing in a lefty and then Girardi took out Bird and put in Holliday and Texas stuck with their lefty and Holliday got the big hit to move the runner to third. Chase Headley then tied the game with a sac fly), Texas failing to convert a seemingly tailor-made double play ball in the ninth by Judge that kept the inning alive and then, of course, Tyler Austin coming through with the big pinch-hit (is it really pinch-hit? Didn’t he come in to play first in the bottom of the 8th?) go-ahead single. Then Headley worked out a bases loaded walk.

Aroldis Chapman looks like he has put his nonsense behind him and is back to being the typical unhittable Aroldis Chapman. When you can routinely not only throw 101 MPH but can LOCATE your 101 MPH fastball? How can anyone really do anything against you? Girardi argued after the game that Chapman’s problem has been that his contact rate has been the same, but the balls have just been going for home runs more often. That probably does say SOMEthing about it (similar situation happened with Tanaka where they were hitting the ball the same percentage, but they were going for home runs more often than normal) but his swings and misses were non-existent the last few months and that’s back to normal, so I haven’t the foggiest idea. I still think he has a physical issue that had messed with his mechanics and now he was just adjusting.

Luckily, all of the other teams in the Wild Card race lost, so the Yankees opened up a three game lead in the loss over Minnesota and five-game leads over the Angels and Rangers, with a six-game lead now over the Orioles, Royals and Mariners (all of these leads are in the loss column).

Big game on Sunday afternoon, with the Yankees trying to win another road series. That’d be huge. Jordan Montgomery also has to prove that he can be a bit more consistent.

--Posted at 7:04 am by Brian Cronin / 5 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, September 9, 2017

Yankees (75-65) @ Rangers (71-69), Saturday, 9/9/2017, 08:05p ET

Yankees: Luis Severino (R): (169.1 IP, 3.03 ERA, 4.6 RA-9 WAR) vs. Rangers: Andrew Cashner (R): (139.2 IP, 3.29 ERA, 3.8 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Yankees
TBA

Rangers
TBA

--Posted at 12:03 pm by SG / 41 Comments | - (0)



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