The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Yet Another Useless and Early CAIRO 2014 MLB Standings Projection

Since I last ran these, the Yankees have made several big moves.  There have been quite a few other moves around baseball as well.  So I took the most recent version of CAIRO, which is available here, and ran them again.

Date 12/9/2013
Iterations 1,000,000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/-
Red Sox 90 72 800 742 49.7% 11.1% 9.3% 70.1% 80-100
Rays 84 78 649 602 16.0% 9.1% 10.0% 35.1% 74-94
Yankees 84 78 753 731 14.9% 8.9% 10.0% 33.8% 74-94
Blue Jays 84 78 819 778 14.7% 8.1% 10.1% 32.9% 74-94
Orioles 80 82 749 742 4.8% 3.5% 4.9% 13.2% 70-90
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Tigers 91 71 739 657 79.3% 4.0% 3.5% 86.9% 81-101
Indians 81 81 704 687 12.1% 7.0% 7.9% 27.0% 71-91
Royals 79 83 678 733 6.2% 3.4% 4.9% 14.5% 69-88
Twins 75 87 693 744 2.2% 1.6% 2.3% 6.1% 65-85
White Sox 68 94 688 793 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 58-78
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Rangers 88 74 778 683 44.5% 14.3% 10.5% 69.3% 77-97
Athletics 87 75 712 642 33.4% 15.2% 11.8% 60.3% 76-96
Angels 84 78 684 656 19.8% 12.0% 11.6% 43.4% 74-94
Mariners 76 86 639 673 2.4% 1.7% 2.9% 7.0% 66-86
Astros 61 101 678 931 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 51-71
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Nationals 89 73 703 622 49.3% 14.8% 10.4% 74.4% 79-99
Braves 89 73 650 601 46.7% 15.9% 10.5% 73.1% 78-98
Phillies 76 86 639 689 2.1% 1.5% 3.0% 6.6% 66-86
Marlins 75 87 598 650 1.7% 1.0% 2.2% 4.9% 65-85
Mets 71 91 596 677 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 1.1% 60-80
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Cardinals 86 76 628 579 39.6% 6.7% 8.9% 55.2% 76-96
Pirates 86 76 593 565 35.6% 6.5% 8.8% 50.9% 75-95
Reds 83 79 673 650 22.9% 5.6% 8.9% 37.4% 73-93
Brewers 72 90 706 786 1.1% 0.3% 0.6% 2.1% 62-82
Cubs 72 90 640 702 0.9% 0.3% 0.8% 1.9% 62-82
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Dodgers 92 70 647 553 59.5% 13.2% 9.7% 82.4% 82-102
Giants 87 75 615 561 22.3% 17.0% 14.8% 54.0% 77-97
Diamondbacks 85 77 628 583 14.5% 13.0% 13.4% 41.0% 75-95
Padres 79 83 606 603 2.6% 3.0% 5.3% 11.0% 69-89
Rockies 76 86 809 880 1.1% 1.0% 2.2% 4.3% 66-86

W: Projected final 2014 wins
L: Projected final 2014 losses
RS: Projected final 2014 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2014 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

For whatever reason, some of you people are Yankee fans, so let’s focus on them specifically.  On November 20 they projected to win 71 games and qualify for the postseason about 0.5% of the time.  Now they project to win 84 games and qualify 33.8% of the time.  So clearly, I’ve been working overtime to make the Yankees look better than they are by changing a lot of underlying components and assumptions.  Either that, or adding Kelly Johnson (+2 wins), Hiroki Kuroda (+3.5 wins), Brian McCann (+3 wins), Carlos Beltran (+2 wins) and Jacoby Ellsbury (+3 wins) has made them significantly better, even if I didn’t like all the moves they made.

If Joel Sherman is right and the Yankees are done spending, they will go into the season still clearly behind Boston. I would assume if Tampa Bay adds a better 1B option they will move ahead of the Yankees as well, although they could end up trading David Price and that might hurt them.  Toronto is expected to get a dead cat bounce with better health this year even though they haven’t made any major deals.  Actually, I guess swapping Dioner Navarro for J.P. Arencibia is a pretty good upgrade. I have no idea what Baltimore is doing this offseason.

I saw the 2014 AL Central race the first time, when it was the 2013 AL Central race.

Oakland and Texas look pretty tight in the West, with the Angels not too far back of them although I don’t know who the hell is going to be pitching for them.  How about those 76 wins Robinson?  And look at the Astros.  If they add a league average player they may project to lose fewer than 100 games!

As for the National League, it’s the National League.  Who really cares?

--Posted at 7:27 am by SG / 106 Comments | - (0)

Comments

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We need Sabathia and Teixiera to remember that they’re supposed to be 4-5 WAR players.

I don’t like the Ellsbury signing, but I do think he’ll be worth more than 3 wins. I do buy Beltran at 2 though. How much would a 2-2.5 win pitcher help them? 1 win? What about Tanaka?

So basically they project to be what they were last year - a team that will hang around in the WC race until mid-September.

Is this with or without A-Rod?

I have no idea what Baltimore is doing this offseason.

Clearly neither do they. One of the few bright spots this offseason is how shitty the Orioles are handling pretty much everything.

Oh, by the way, everyone, good news. Jeff Francoeur had LASIK surgery, so he would be a great signing.

[5] Nice, now he can really see the pitches he is flailing at.

Or the OBP on his baseball card.

Damn, I wanted the Yankees to sign Felipe Paulino.

I don’t like the Ellsbury signing, but I do think he’ll be worth more than 3 wins.

It’s relative to what was there before, not absolute.  For all his warts, Ichiro still projects at around +1 WAR.

Is this with or without A-Rod?

Still assuming no Rodriguez.

[9] Ah, well that makes more sense.

[9] How many wins would ARod for say 100 or so games add? How about a full season? (Since some of us are pulling for 50 or no games as the Yankees absolutely deserve to pay his entire contract and all the bonuses)

We need Sabathia and Teixiera to remember that they’re supposed to be 4-5 WAR players.

Is it that you just like to see that look of wistful self-doubt in their eyes?

How much would a 2-2.5 win pitcher help them? 1 win? What about Tanaka?

Right now, 4/5/6 is 150 IP of Pineda (4.61 ERA), 150 IP of Phelps (4.34 ERA) and 100 IP of Warren (4.61 ERA).  If they get a 3.75 ERA to slot in at #4 and give the 100 IP going to Warren to Phelps they gain about 15 runs.

Tanaka only projects as around 2 WAR, although anything from 0 to 5 would not surprise me.

How many wins would ARod for say 100 or so games add?

Interestingly, he projects for exactly 100 games and 420 PA and 1.9 WAR.  But that’s like 3 WAN (wins above Nun-E).

Interestingly, he projects for exactly 100 games and 420 PA and 1.9 WAR.  But that’s like 3 WAN (wins above Nun-E).

See? There’s still room for optimism! SG only thinks Nun-E will be a -1.1 WAR player!

I don’t like some of the moves they’ve made either..but gaining 13 wins in the course of 3 weeks despite losing your franchise player is pretty neat. At least they’ll be worth watching for several months in 2014. Also, 2013 CAIRO projected TWN for 82 wins.

I don’t think there is any way Nunez is on the team next year.

And I still hate the Ellsbury contract but the front office is doing what they have to do to move in the right direction long term.  You can’t just do nothing and complain players are too expensive. Then they would be the Mets.

holy crap, the MAriners offered Cruz 5/75 and he turned it down. I almost feel bad for Robbie, that team is fucked.

Yay the Yankees spent a ton of money to (hopefully) be a few games over .500.

This is why the Yankees will never be as a bad as the Astros.  They can outspend nearly every other team to at least be mediocre.  Exciting.

[19] I will take mediocre with an outside chance of lucking into the playoffs and then getting hot for 3 weeks and winning a title to being in the position the Astros are. I mean, they’re headed for their 4th straight 100 loss season and I’m not getting the sense they have accumulated even close to the talent the Rays did before they turned things around.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/12/09/visual-evidence-suggests-pablo-sandoval-is-in-the-bsohl/

Not even 2014 yet.

How many wins would ARod for say 100 or so games add? How about a full season? (Since some of us are pulling for 50 or no games as the Yankees absolutely deserve to pay his entire contract and all the bonuses)

Some of us are pulling for 50 or 0 because we want A-Rod to shove it all down their throats, and also because it would mean the humiliation of Selig.

I almost feel bad for Robbie, that team is fucked.

I don’t feel bad at all for him. I would taunt him for it, if I were still allowed on Twitter. Damned lawyers and their “court orders”.

One of the few bright spots this offseason is how shitty the Orioles are handling pretty much everything.

I got a coke says Buck intangibles them to a better record than us.

[12] Pete is back and on fire ! Pedro for President !

See? There’s still room for optimism! SG only thinks Nun-E will be a -1.1 WAR player!

Talk about changing underlying assumptions to make the Yankees seem better…

What in the world is Amaro doing? Signing Ruiz and Brown but shopping Brown, and now Lee and Hamels. If I were a GM, I’d try the Amaro well until he was fired. He’s basically asking to be taken for a ride in respect of Brown and those pitchers.

Still assuming no Rodriguez.

So we can assume at least two more wins added to the roster before the season starts, because they’ll either have ARod and his 2 projected wins, or they’ll have some or all of ARod’s money to spend on some additional talent.

they’ll have some or all of ARod’s money to spend on some additional talent.

Not if $189M is in play.

Phillies are shopping Lee, Hamels, and Brown. Saying they are not willing to pick up any remaining salary. If ARod is unjustly suspended for the entire season, how about Lee? Gets them up to a projected 87-88 wins. I’d assume he could be had for almost nothing since he is due $25M each of the next two seasons then has a $27.5M vesting option ($12.5M buyout) that is only guaranteed if he pitches 400 innings in the next two seasons or 200 innings in 2015.

Assuming Tanaka isn’t posted and they realize TSBG for Brett Anderson doesn’t really improve the team.

[25 & 26] Yeah, that are about at 189 assuming no ARod already. Only wiggle room is finding someone willing to take Ichiro or Nun-E’s arbitration finally correctly ruling that he should be paying the team to keep him around creating the first ever negative AAV.

[27] - Forget Lee, I’d take Cole Hammels in a second for that salary.  Of course the Yankees have no room in the payroll, but man, that would have been nice instead of Ellsbury…

It really can’t be said enough, but F Cliff Lee.

[31]
I thought that was pretty much what Ted meant by [27]

[29] Hamels is projected at 3 WAR if I read the spreadsheet correct. For age 30-34 seasons you’d get 10 WAR for $118.5M.

Lee really isn’t a great deal either though since it’s $63M for between 7 and 8 WAR.

I guess the point isn’t either one of those players in particular, but there are options out there for them to add WAR without needing to trade anything of value if they are willing to completely ignore 189. Multiple intriguing players available in salary dump scenarios.

If they can crawl up to 88 projected wins, I’d be quite happy as there is some hidden upside on this team (Pineda returns to rookie year form, Nova puts together a full season of what he’s been showing for half seasons at a time, CC and/or Teix dead cat bounce, Ellsbury thinking it’s 2011, or ARod gets his suspension reversed and is finally over the hip issues so he has one last monster season in him just to stick it to Selig)

[26]  As I worked it out the other day, I think the equilibrium point for 189, as things stand now, is a 100 game suspension.  That would save them roughly the $14-15MM that they’re already over (if the NY Post’s $203MM estimates are correct).  If the suspension is less than a 100 games, they’d be over the 189, but if the suspension is more than 100, they’d have some money to spend.

So worst case, the suspension is 100 games, their payroll is frozen at 189, and they only get 50-60 games of ARod.  Still, that’s an additional .7 WAR or something.

50 or 0 game suspension, they’re over 189 and who knows what happens.  They get more value from ARod - potentially 2 WAR for 0 games - but maybe they dump talent to get under the tax limit, or maybe they say F it and spend more.

Every game over 100, they’ll be able to spend that savings - which can approach $10-13MM for a full season - on new talent.

So there’s some WAR to be had out there, unless my calculations are way off, which is possible.

[31] This. He’s one of the top 10 biggest non-TWN douches in the history of douchedom.

[34]
Or an accidental failure of almost every single prospect to fail.

[33] - I will agree to disagree with the spreadsheet.

I think Lee’s the better pitcher.

Gardner to Philly, Lee to LAAOA, Kendrick to NYY.

According to the spreadsheet, Gardner is only worth 2.4 WAR.

If 189 is out the window and AROD is suspended for 100+ games, Gardner + Sanchez to LAAOA, Trout, Pujols and Hamilton to NYY.

[41] I’m not sure LAAAAAA would get rid of Trout even with the opportunity to get Pujols and Hamilton off the books.

Also, that’s a lot of OF.

Hilarious trade though.

[41]
It would be worth taking the bad contracts to get Trout, Arod or no Arod.

To put on a team on the field, you’d have to move Teix to third and Soriano to second, positions they played in their youth.  I’d take it to have that lineup.

[43] Oh man, that might be the worst defensive infield in baseball since Jeter and Soriano were playing together the first time.

Unless you are the Nats offering Strasburg and Harper, I don’t think any team in MLB has enough to trade for Trout.

Even then, I’d probably turn that deal down if I am LAAOA.

[43] You could also platoon DH Soriano and Hamilton. I’d throw in anyone else to get LAAOA to bite. In theory it saves them something like $600 million over the next 15 years if you factor in a Trout extension at some point, but pretty unlikely as nice as it sounds for the NYY.

This analysis reminds me of why I hate the Yanks’ off-season.  They haven’t improved enough to make the playoffs if 2014. They didn’t stay under $189 m. Yet, they’ve harmed their future. 

In 2015, full salary for ARod will be (probably) back, but he won’t be able to do much.  CC and Tex will be expensive, but they’ll be declining. Beltran might well decline,too. Salaries for these four plus Ellsbury and McCann will leave them little money to sign expensive free agents. 

Also, by giving up high draft choices, they harmed their chance to get good future stars for later years.  The Yanks are spending more than any other team (or close to it) on a plan that will produce consistent mediocrity. :(

[47] Also, by giving up high draft choices, they harmed their chance to get good future stars for later years.

I’ve got some good news for you: Using the picks to draft players also harms their chance of getting good future stars for later years. So at least there’s that.

The Yankees would never acquire Trout now.  They’ll wait until he’s 32 with rickety knees and pay him like a 10 WAR player.

[49] 65MM AAV. Nice.

I just heard Jack Z talk about signing Cano to $24M/10 years - a long deal instead of a short deal - because it drove the AAV down.

Right dude. Because with a $90M payroll, you’re really up against that luxury tax.

[51] Man, it’s a good thing he got that AAV down to 24MM…

Which team is more confusing? The Yankees, The Mariners or the Phillies?

Just realized there are some ways to get the payroll down: extend Robertson and Gardner at AAV’s below their arbitration projection.  Win-win, potentially, and I think they’d go for it if the deals were fair because they’re the type of players - a defense heavy position player and a middle reliever - who would not be locks for big multi year deals if/when they hit FA.

[54] Robertson is an elite reliever, if he hits FA, he’ll almost certainly get a closing gig somewhere.

So, looking at the arbitration projects, it probably won’t work.

Robertson is projected to $5.5M and Gardner $4M.

4/$16M for Robertson? Probably wouldn’t take it.

3/$11M for Gardner? Same thing. He can do better. Way better.

And if they would sign below it at all (I doubt it), neither would sign significantly below their arb number 1 year from free agency.  You really couldn’t save much money that way.

[56] Yeah, Gardner would never take that. Robertson might, but you save a minimum salary if you give him 5MM AAV, which is not bad.

“One Cubs official told Sherman, “The Yankees have no upper-level talent,” when asked about potential trades between the two clubs.”

Oof

[59] That’s a bit over harsh. They have Sanchez.

[60] they said upper level.

I’d be curious.  If MLB held a total redraft of all prospects (say, players eligible for ROY awards and under) - would the Yankees have a player selected in the first round?

Obviously Sanchez would be a name tossed about, but would he go in the first round?

[61]  If MLB held a total redraft of ALL players, would any Yankee be taken in the first round?

[62] From a keeper fantasy perspective, probably not for the first two rounds at least.  Then ... McCann maybe.

[61] Is AA not upper level?

That’s news to me.

Obviously Sanchez would be a name tossed about, but would he go in the first round?

Maybe, he’d definitely be gone by the end of second round though.

[62] Is this with everyone having their current contract in place? Or just everyone is available to draft and their current cost isn’t part of the equation?

That 3 way trade for Trumbo is kind of weird.

[66] Either way the answer is the same. The Yankees don’t have anyone worth taking in the 1st round. Probably not the second either, unless you really believe in Ellsbury.

Edit: I guess McCann could be a 2nd rounder.

[67]
The White Sox must think Adam Eaton is really good.

I was confused for a while.  The other Adam Eaton last pitched in the bigs in 2009.  Its like Chris Young, Steve Ontiveros,Javier Lopez,Chris Carpenter and Alex Gonzalez.  Players who are roughly contemporary with the same name.  Frank Thomas and Frank Thomas don’t count they were 40 years apart.

[69] He has pretty crazy AAA numbers in ~600 ABs.

It’s a weird trade all around. I think the Angels did pretty well, but I guess it depends on who the last PTBL is.

[70]
.381/.456/.539 38 steals in Reno in 2012 is good.

BA Number 73 prospect entering 2013.

OK, I get it.

[71] Yeah, I’d prefer to have him than Trumbo…

[67] Aren’t Skaggs and Eaton top level prospects?  Trumbo shouldn’t bring prospects that good, no?

Also, the Japanese posting system seems likely to change to the $20MM max on posting fees, with all teams with winning bids free to negotiate with the player.  So AAV on the contracts figure to be quite a bit higher.  Just in time for the season when the Yankees care about AAV.

Diamondbacks offered Joba 3mil.  Watch him become a 2 as a starter.

[73] Arizona is getting some players back, it seems like a bit of an overpay by AZ. Unless the last PTNL is really, really good, it seems like a pretty nice win for LAAAAA and around even for CWS.

Wasn’t Trumbo blacklisted?

[76] He never should have made all those pro-Communist movies in the ‘40s.

So…the Mets signed Granderson?  Why wasn’t I informed?

Brett Anderson to the Rockies.

Opportunity missed or bullet dodged?

[79] Anderson is talented but overrated. Pomeranz could end up being a steal.

Bullet dodged. Projects at -0.5 WAR. Hasn’t been worth more than 1 WAR since 2010. Gets $8M this season with $12M option for 2015 ($1.5M buyout.)

But can he bring the yanks back?

http://deadspin.com/derek-jeter-revived-a-dying-man-with-his-handsome-face-1480621917

[82] The link at the end had me in hysterics.

Yeah Jeets. Yeah Jeets.

Can he stare at Ichiro’s hitting ability?

Hey, I got a question for people. SG was posting the WARs of #5 starters as between -.6 and -.2 and talking about how every GM overvalues #3 starters with 2-3 WAR. 

Doesn’t the fact that almost all #5 starters have negative WAR indicate that WAR is broken for at least pitchers and isn’t properly evaluating them. The fact that it seems every GM values the #3 starters above Brett Gardner is probably also a good tip off unless you believe they are all doing it wrong.

sounds like WAR undervalues pitching by at least 1 win. That would bring pitchers up above the replacement level and put #3s past Gardner.

It is a little weird that number fives are worse than replacement level, since by definition you can replace that player for the minimum with a schmo out of the minors, who in theory is 0 WAR.  Why is that?  Some really bad teams have really bad #5s who drag down the averages?  But that doesn’t make sense either, there’s a limit to how bad a player can be before even the dumbest GM will replace him.  That suggests that number 5 starters really are sub-replacement.  Veteran bias?  Fear that another player will be even worse?

[85] most #5s don’t stick in the majors for a full season as a starter. the fifth spot is usually a rotation of whoever sucks least. Fifth starters are bad. Phil Hughes was the Yankees 5th starter this year. He pitched to a 78 ERA+ in a mercifully poor 145.2 innings (CC was their 4th starter at 85 and Phelps their 6th at 82). The Yankees as a whole had a 103 ERA+.

BTW ERA+ numbers for the Yankees other 3 starters: 122, 108 and 130.

According to fWAR (which I have issues with) the Yankees had the 5th most valuable pitching staff in baseball for 2013. Of course Hughes was worth 1.4 wins in fWAR and -.7 in rWAR.

[87] To expound on this:

2013 rWAR
Kuroda: 4.1
Nova: 3.6
Pettitte: 2.5
Sabathia: 0.3
Hughes: -0.7
Phelps: -0.1

So in 2013 the Yankees got slightly below average production from their #1, #4 and #5 but slightly above average production out of their #2, #3 and way above average production out of their #6+ starters.

Robertson and Mo were also really productive.

rWAR had the Yankees pitching staff as a whole at the 5th most productive staff in the AL and 9th in baseball at 17.3 WAR.

2013:

Fed list, jail, then Dean’s list
And I’m lean because my dream’s brisk
Only worry’s how my jeans fit
And my hometown’s never seen this

Happy Holidays

Guys, I tracked down Mel.  He’s disgusted with all of us.

Doesn’t the fact that almost all #5 starters have negative WAR indicate that WAR is broken for at least pitchers and isn’t properly evaluating them.

I think it’s more along the lines of injuries meaning your fifth starters actually end up being your sixth/seventh/eight starters a lot of the time.

[91] Really? Are we all that different from a year ago?

[93]  Well, he’s mostly disgusted with you.  I was just trying not to single you out.

He’s not really disgusted, obviously.  More like login-challenegd.

[94] Like I said, saving up his cigarettes.

I love that teams are inquiring about Nova. How dumb do they think that the Yankees are? Wait, don’t answer that.

Maybe we can turn Nova into a fourth outfielder.

[97]  Well, he’s got a great arm, but I’m not sure about his range.

Add Kevin Towers to the Ruben Amaro list of GMs I’d feel comfortable dueling with.

With Cano, 88 wins? And Rodriguez, 90? Yes, that’s a $250m payroll.

Page 1 of 2 pages:  1 2 >

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