The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

YES: Curry: Andy Pettitte ready for a big season

TAMPA - One year ago, Andy Pettitte came to Spring Training as a guest instructor. As Pettitte stood near the first base dugout at Steinbrenner Field and discussed his new role, he looked as athletic as ever. Pettitte looked like someone who could still pitch. Soon, very soon, we all learned that he could.

That gig as an instructor didn’t last too long for Pettitte. He came out of retirement about three weeks later to pitch for the Yankees and he is back again in 2013. When Pettitte pitched in 2012, which was only for 75 1/3 innings because of a broken fibula, he was very good. This season, Pettitte expects to be just as reliable.

For Pettitte, being a 40-year old pitcher trumps being a 30-year old pitcher since he suggested that he is a better pitcher than he was a decade ago. Pettitte, who is excited about the baseball detour that took him from retired instructor to dependable starting pitcher (again) has lofty goals. He stressed that he wants to stay healthy, make each of his starts and also log at least 200 innings.

“Heck, I want to win 20 games,” Pettitte added. “That’s what I want.”

I’m hoping Pettitte can pitch 150 innings this year, and that’s what my projections are estimating.  It’d be great if he could get up to 175 innings, something that’s been done 96 times by a pitcher aged 40 or older.  That last happened in 2008 when four pitchers did it (Greg Maddux, Tim Wakefield, Jamie Moyer and Randy Johnson).  It’s probably worth mentioning that none of the pitchers who achieved a 175 inning season at age 40 or older threw fewer than 152 innings in their ages 38 and 39 seasons.

--Posted at 10:21 am by SG / 33 Comments | - (0)

Comments

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Andy winning 20 would be pretty hard to conceive of. First it takes good health then some luck.  Right now I’d settle for knowing he will start 35 times. Same with Gardner. I would ignore stats and say my goal for him is 550 at bats.

Lots of talk today regarding HalStein talking early extension for Cano.  Why now? Could they not have done something proactive say in December?

Kind of excited about the four prospects. Sanchez, Austin, Heathcott and Mason Williams.  If Williams makes it there will be a lot of old writers making references to the musician of the same name. Check him out on youtube.

Andy winning 20 would be pretty hard to conceive of. First it takes good health then some luck.  Right now I’d settle for knowing he will start 35 times. Same with Gardner. I would ignore stats and say my goal for him is 550 at bats.

Lots of talk today regarding HalStein talking early extension for Cano.  Why now? Could they not have done something proactive say in December?

Kind of excited about the four prospects. Sanchez, Austin, Heathcott and Mason Williams.  If Williams makes it there will be a lot of old writers making references to the musician of the same name. Check him out on youtube.

Lots of talk today regarding HalStein talking early extension for Cano.  Why now?

Pre-emptive PR.

[1-2] Whatever you’d settle for, chances that he makes 35 starts are nil.

Sabathia’s career high in games started is 35.

Pettitte could make 35 starts if he gets traded to a playoff team and you count the postseason.

[6] Not only true, but likely.  Dodgers or Rangers?

probably worth mentioning that none of the pitchers who achieved a 175 inning season at age 40 or older threw fewer than 152 innings in their ages 38 and 39 seasons.

Worth noting, but also this is rather unique I think in that he had a broken leg on a LD coming back at him.  I’d imagine most of the pitchers who were still active at 40 and couldn’t pitch that many innings either a) were no longer good enough for a regular rotation turn or b) were coming off of arm injuries. (or c, both).

I think Pettitte having 25 starts and 150-175 innings is reasonable, and will go a long way towards helping the Yankees be competitive.  Also probably wouldn’t hurt his HOF candidacy at all.  I don’t think 32 starts/200+IP is out of the question, and that will get him into territory he could win 20 games.  Yes takes some luck, but Hughes won 16 last year and I’d imagine Pettitte with that much PT would be better.

Phil Hughes has a bulging disk. Doesn’t seem too worried, because back injuries usually just work themselves out.

Lots of talk today regarding HalStein talking early extension for Cano.  Why now?

In addition to SG in [3], I also understand that the talks w/ Boras have been in the works for a few weeks, it’s partly that it’s just coming out now.  This doesn’t say at all internally when they started talking about a Cano extension.  And I can also see why they may want to get some other stuff done before getting too serious about Cano.  I think it’s good they’re making it public they want to get this done, and hopefully they find a way to do so that’s a reasonable contract.

A bulging what???? Oh, DISK.

@11. Sorry, typo. I meant DICK.

He should probably consult a physician at this point.

Worth noting, but also this is rather unique I think in that he had a broken leg on a LD coming back at him.  I’d imagine most of the pitchers who were still active at 40 and couldn’t pitch that many innings either a) were no longer good enough for a regular rotation turn or b) were coming off of arm injuries. (or c, both).

There is an article on Baseball Prospectus showing basically that the best way to predict pitcher injuries is to assume they will get the same amount of injury as last year, so in that sense a broken leg is a good thing.

[9] He had the same thing a few years back, I don’t think it kept him out long. At least missed time in ST is better than missed time in the season.

Cameron with a shout-out for RLYW pie charts:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-difference-between-predictions-and-projections/

[16] This added attention is sure to make RLYW to blow up big time. Soon, natural market forces will cause most of us lesser lights to be replaced by smarter, younger, hungrier commenters. Sigh.

“A prediction is essentially a projection where there is a high degree of confidence in a specific outcome.”

This is just bogus. You say, I predict p +/- s (n sigma).  Then the projection police come and say, No, that’s not a prediction, we might not see p.  You say, Look at the +/- part.  They say, Well, s is too big by some magic standard.  Or, But look over there at those people who didn’t put the s in.  (In the latter case you say, That’s not even a prediction.)

[17] I’m certain I can keep up with the “hungrier” part of that…as long we are talking about food.  We ARE talking about food right?  The other parts, yeah I’m SOL.

There is a lot of BS around this.  When ESPN Guy says the Phils will win 90 games, and they win 85 or 95, he’s still going to count himself as “correct.”  There are always implied error bars.  (ESPN Guy is happy to disregard error bars for nerds.)  It’s a sort of projection even if it’s based on nothing.  Maybe the word “prediction” ought to be reserved for situations in which there are two or more discrete states.  EG, you can predict the winner of a baseball game—there can be only one.  But to bet the over/under on runs scored, you have to make a projection. 

However, that said, I don’t think a lot of debate about this really advances our understanding of the game or of its analysis, except that MORE PIE NOM NOM.

Yeah, my takeaway is MOAR PIE CHARTS!

[21] You have been credited as “guys” which means that Cameron either believes you are part of a team, or somehow is crediting the rest of us jokers for meaningful contributions.

yeah, I’m not sure it’s useful to think of predictions as a subset of projections. Predictions tend to be like calling a specific roll of the dice (although hopefully not in such foolhardy situations), while projections should be trying to describe the underlying random variable.

Price says if traded here he would never sign a long term contract because of Yankee’s facial hair policy.  I agree that policy is outdated and stupid.

[24] Perhaps.  Yet I do not want any Yankees to look like Josh Beckett, or any NFLer with Predator locks.

I don’t want any Yankee to look like Josh Beckett even with a Roger Maris haircut.  Would I take Tim Lincecum at his best with that ugly do? You betcha.

[26] See, my theory is that the hair caused his decline.

OTOH look what happened to Victor Mature

[22] So SG isn’t, in fact, some guy living in his mother’s basement, but in fact may be 2 or more guys living in an indeterminate number of subterranean housing units?

What if SG is actually a sort of hacker collective, like Anonymous?  And what if he has access to those pictures I foolishly took in a weak moment?  Curse you, alcohol and digital cameras—what a combustible mixture!

[29] Could be several guys living in 1 basement.

Or 1 guy living in many basements, each in the basement of some crazy old lady who thinks he’s her son and/or dog.

We need a pie chart of these.

200 innings? Shouldn’t they be carefully managing his workload to save him for his productive later years?

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