The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

Monday, July 31, 2017 Yanks reportedly get Gray for 3 prospects

The Yankees and A’s have agreed to a deal that will send Sonny Gray to New York, according to multiple reports.

Oakland will receive Dustin Fowler, Jorge Mateo and James Kaprelian, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports.

Great deal by Billy Beane to get two guys the Yankees would have never dealt before their injuries as throw-ins, of sort, to a Jorge Mateo-based trade for Sonny Gray. And a very good job by Brian Cashman to get a pitcher that the Yankees could really use (not just for this season, but for 2018 and 2019) in exchange for one prospect who was likely always going to be a trade chip (Jorge Mateo) and two injured prospects who were not going to be part of the Yankees’ plans any time soon (both Fowler and Kap are dealing with injuries that, even if you ostensibly recover from them, you might never FULLY recover from them to the point where you were before the injury, and for a guy whose whole deal is built around speed like Fowler, that’s a huge risk - of course, both players very well COULD recover perfectly) without having to give up his other top trade chip in outifielder Estevan Florial, who I thought they were definitely going to have to part with to get the deal done.

This is what you get when you have two very good GMs make a trade with each other, a very balanced trade.

On the whole, I am pleased. Sonny Gray is a big get and Jaime Garcia is a huge upgrade over Luis Cessa as the long man. This team is shaping up nicely. Although, they now have cleared up an extra 40-man spot. I wonder what that will be used for?

survey service

--Posted at 2:10 pm by Brian Cronin / 66 Comments | - (0)


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Yankees got international money from the A’s and Orioles.

*Otani enters stage left*

Although, they now have cleared up an extra 40-man spot. I wonder what that will be used for?

Probably for someone they would have to protect in the Rule 5 draft this offseason, or another catcher.  With Romine hurt and Higashioka also hurt, they need depth there I think.

I think Cashman fleeced Beane.

Compare this to the Florial/Mateo/Adams the A’s were supposedly asking for, plus the Yankees get $1.5M in Int’l money, which is enough for 3 good prospects.

How good do we expect Gray to be?

So what is the Yankees rotation? Do they go with 6? If not, who’s out? Cc to the pen?

With Romine hurt and Higashioka also hurt, they need depth there I think.

F*cking Padres and Luis Torrens. AJ Preller can’t get fired enough times for me.

So the Yankees have traded four of their top 10 prospects as rated by Baseball America heading into this season.

1. Gleyber Torres, ss
2. Clint Frazier, of
3. Blake Rutherford, of
4. Jorge Mateo, ss
5. James Kaprielian, rhp
6. Aaron Judge, of
7. Justus Sheffield, lhp
8. Chance Adams, rhp
9. Dustin Fowler, of
10. Domingo Acevedo, rhp

Graduating Judge and possibly Frazier this year, so they’ll have six new top 10 prospects next year?

Better to graduate and trade them away then have them flame out of the top 10.

Jon Heyman says Kaprielian was the deciding piece. Once the Yankees agreed to include him, the deal was done.

[4] I’m not expecting much.  I’ll say 4.25 ERA as a Yankee for the rest of this year.

[5] Thinking they juggle to get Severino and Tanaka and Montgomery some rest.  Severino and Montgomery are probably nearing innings limits, Tanaka pitches better with more rest.  Garcia as a swingman maybe?

Thumbs up from me. Take out last year’s injury riddled disaster and Gray has basically been close to an ace level starting pitcher. I wouldn’t be surprised if the A’s hit on two of the three players they received, because they are all extremely talented high ceiling prospects.

[11] I don’t think you can expect much out of Kaprielian after 2 serious injuries.  Health is a skill, and he ain’t got it.

They said Garcia will be the long man.

(12) Avoiding dangerously placed electrical boxes is also a skill.

How about these six:


12. We shall see. Wasn’t most of his elbow trouble in ‘15 related to trying to rehab through the tear? I think if the tear is properly fixed he can still burst on the scene.

Kaprielian will probably be a very good pitcher for the A’s.  With Yankees crack medical staff, he probably wouldn’t have been for the Yanks.

[16] Oh, I don’t think he’s done, but I’m going to guess he’ll never be durable.  The best predictor of future injuries is past injuries.

Given the choice of losing him, or say, Chance Adams, I’d much, much, much rather trade Kaprielian.  Same thing with Florial vs. Fowler.

[0] Any way to set up a poll? I’m curious what we think in the aggregate.

[10] Just give him to Cairo, that’ll fix your pessimism.

I’m really surprised they were able to make this trade without giving up Adams or Acevado. So you’re tellin me you added an excellent young starting pitcher and still have Adams and Acevado possibly breaking into the big leagues in 2018-2019. In the words of Clay Davis from The Wire, shieeeeeeetttttt.

Sonny Gray career ERA against AL East teams

Red Sox - 5.16 (22.3 IP)
Orioles - 5.17 (21 IP)
Rays   - 3.93 (55 IP)
Blue Jays-2.54 (39 IP)

Yankees -4.55 (29.3 IP)

Chris O’Leary @thepainguy - Pitching mechanics analysis of Sonny Gray

Curry: “Girardi nixed the idea of a 6-man rotation. Would seem that Montgomery would be the choice to move to the pen or be sent to AAA.”

Really surprised Darvish stayed put.

I thought that that was the way they were going to go but then they said Garcia was going to be the long man. Did one bad Monty start really change their minds?

Sending Monty down would get an extra year of control.  Dunno if they would really do it.

[19] Poll added.

And there goes Darvish to LA. Nasty 1-2 for the playoffs.

25. To be fair Montgomery has had more than one bad outing. He’s been totally inefficient since the All Star Break. I’d put him in the pen instead of sending him down though.

[22] I notice that a lot of that guy’s writing is in defense of himself. I mean, maybe Gray has bad mechanics. But maybe lots of pitchers do and are OK anyway?

I guess I don’t know how to jump on a bandwagon that requires far greater knowledge than I have. So, I just hope he pitches well for us, as he has for most of the past 3+ years.

[0] Thank you! I voted “Good”

[29 and others] I can get behind this move if Monty needs an inning cap, and for exactly as long as Garcia is at least as good. No reason he can’t finish the year in the pen and come back to start next year.

We don’t need a poll to tell us what to think about this trade.

We just need a post by SG.

Clearly Beane is creating some sort of Frankenstein-like mega player.  He is going to use the leg of Fowler and the arm of Kap and since they were already detached, it made the trade the next logical step toward his master plan.  That’s my official take on the situation.

Yu Darvish to the Dodgers.

Look at Cashman’s trades in the last few years. Outside of Shane Green, has Cashman outright ripped anybody off? It seems like he gives fair value to his trading partners and gets great value back. The Steinbrenners need to lock him up this offseason.

If Sonny Gray is to ‘16 what David Cone was to ‘95, the excitement will be worth it.

Candelario in the Wilson/Avila deal seems like the Yanks woulda done better to hang onto him than obtaining Cessa and Green.

(36) I think the Hicks for JRM was quite good even if only for one season.

The two Chapman trades were brilliant.

If Clint Frazier is as good as he looks so far, that is another one.

The Eevoldi trade was not very good. Or Ben Gamel.

Kay made a funny saying nobody saw this coming the Mooch has been released.

Absolutely. Need to know how grounded this is.

Also, more disturbingly… why is an upside-down W not an M?

I’m a little worried about getting a pitcher from Vanderbilt.  Those guys are troublemakers.

[38] Green may end up being about as good as Wilson (as a reliever) under team control for longer and he’s cheaper too. 

Cessa is meh.  A guy who can soak up some innings while you look to replace him with something better.

I thought the upside-down W was fairly discredited as a potential injury indicator.  And yes, why isn’t it an M?

Poll seems to like the the trade.  Unless all the illegals are voting.

[45] We don’t know if Russia is meddling in the poll results either.

Fan Rag “July 18, he underwent a successful procedure to remove the os trigonum from his right ankle. It seemed likely that 2017 would be another lost season, but Bird vowed at the time to return this year.

Now, with two months to go, such a goal appears realistic.

On Saturday, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that the Yankees medical staff believes Bird could return by the end of August. Later that day, Bird confirmed that he’s recovering quickly, though he didn’t want to give an exact date.

“It feels great so far,” he said. “Once I get the stitches out, I can keep progressing and kind of take the next step, which is moving around more and getting back to playing baseball.”

[47] Wombat Knows a guy….

What the ... A poll on RLYW? I vote ‘meh’. Read the pitching mechanics analysis which I posted above.

Yeah, but why isn’t it called the Inverted Upside Down M?


Despite its being quite easy to see, the root cause of Sonny Gray’s injury problems is NOT his Inverted W.


A W is written for the most part differently from an upside down M. W is angled, M is not.

[51] The next sentence more or less said, I think, the problems aren’t caused by the M, they’re caused by the problems caused by the M)))

And the explanation - they key word is INVERTED. If that’s true, then the norm would be an actual W, right? Do most pitchers have a non-inverted W? Do they?

[51] Read more here.

There are, in the end, no absolutes.

Gardy and Didi getting a day off. I could see one but why both?

I’m glad they didn’t take on Yonder Alonso.

I’m probably the only Cessa-truther here. I like the fact that he came to pitching late, so his arm doesn’t have much wear. I like that he was short-stop. Athleticism equals easy repetition of a pitching delivery. I like that he has a variety of pitches, and throws in the upper nineties. He just can’t command his fastball. Its a big IF, but IF he can hit the corners at some point, he’s going to be a more than credible MLB starter.

[59] Also, at the time we didn’t know that Wilson wasn’t going to be Chasen Shreve and have ZERO value the within a few months. He had a short track record and Cash turned him into 2 usable guys. So, yes, his value is higher now (maybe?) but there was a risk factor in waiting this long.

Potential Yankees tactic: overload the bullpen so that you can leverage overvalued relievers. The potential to squeeze value out here might mitigate overpaying for the FA components, and you get a great bullpen the whole time.

Dare I say: market… inefficien…

This team’s downfall will be that it’s too rested. Rusty.

The other thing we’re not talking about: two most recent moves both bought international bonus $$. Is this just asking squeezing out every tiny bit of value or is there some reason they want it right now?

And no, it’s not Otani, since he’ll be aged out of the spending restrictions right?

Otani will still be subject to the restrictions next year.  But you gotta find the next Florial, Mateo, etc.

Why is is no one talking about the toppled-over sigma arm positioning?  MARKET INEFFICIENCY

[56] I’m a big Chris O’Leary fan, but his work on the inverted W is far from an absolute.

Eric Cressey (IMO) has the market cornered on pitcher injuries.  The inverted W may very well be what enables Gray to throw hard and have effective off speed pitches. There have been plenty of pitchers who have had successful careers with those upper body mechanics. 

Shoulder and elbow health is maintenance, and you can’t see if the maintenance being done from a still shot of a pitcher.

[45] Who pays for the poll wall?

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